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Phaedrus
27-09-2005, 07:58 PM
I was surprised to see aa thinks that "MCH looks reasonable for up side potential...".

All in the eye of the beholder I suppose, but I see a stock in an obvious downtrend and going nowhere at all longterm. There are not too many stocks below what they were 5 years ago, or below their listing price after 11 years.

Anyhow, this post is not about bagging aa. His mention of Mister Chips got me looking at the chart and I noticed a very interesting thing. The On Balance Volume in the chart below clearly shows when the "smart money" bought and sold this stock. It is generally accepted that this shows the actions of those in the know - insiders, institutions or other big players with a lot of money and access to a lot of information. Now, take a look at the trendline-break Buy and Sell signals. They are on exactly the same dates as the big buy/sell transactions. Isn't that spooky possums?
A mere coincidence, or could it be that "those in the know" are simply ordinary TA's using trendline breaks to time their entries and exits, but in numbers large enough to affect the market?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/MCH927001.gif
(Chart re-posted using different web host)

k1w1
28-09-2005, 08:17 AM
Please post certificates to verify orchard ownership and parents death, or I wont believe you...

Phaedrus
28-09-2005, 08:25 AM
Aa,
We seem to be on different planets. The last time MCH traded at 79 cents was 5 years ago, in 2000. A 4.66% mini bounce? Where?? - there were no trades at all yesterday! Is it possible that you have got the ticker wrong and we are talking about different stocks?

To make money on falling stocks requires quick, decisive action - both buying and selling. As you say, your style is "in.. up.. and out, despite the long term trends". Such an approach necessitates the choice of very liquid stocks because you usually have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. The current MCH quotes are 83 cents bid, 99 cents ask. A spread like that makes it very, very difficult to make money whatever your system. You might want to be "in.. up.. and out", but MCH has at times gone for 2 months without a single trade!!!!! Look how easy it would be to get stuck with this turkey! Then there is the question of volume. MCH is extremely extremely lightly traded - often only a few hundred shares change hands over the course of a week. Unless you want to buy or sell only a very small number of shares, you can't even hope to be "in.. up.. and out" - the market depth simply isn't there.

To my mind, MCH is not a good stock for anyone, but it must be a particularly bad choice for someone with your active approach to trading. Yet out of all the NZX stocks, you have identified MCH as the sole worthwhile buy at the moment!

Snow Leopard
28-09-2005, 08:36 AM
MCH went ex-div on Monday and but has not traded this week. I think it has confused a few data providers.
Findata have it closing at 79.3cps monday and back at 83cps tuesday!

BRICKS
28-09-2005, 09:00 AM
Well BRICKS is back in Mr Chips at good prices so Happy eating..[8D]

limegreen
28-09-2005, 09:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
To my mind, MCH is not a good stock for anyone


Except perhaps if you are a former sharebroker and former Chancellor of the University of Otago. However, to the best of my knowledge, only one person fits that criteria. And you'd perhaps still need to define "good" as purchased cheaply a long time ago, and with not much chance of on-selling.

Lizard
28-09-2005, 09:09 AM
Well thanks for the suggestion aa. I've looked at MCH a few times over the years when it came up on the "value" radar, but couldn't find much driving the growth, so might be okay for your short trading timeframe but not so good for longer term investment.

Just getting the feeling that NZ stocks may be going to fall away a bit shortly. Not following alot at the moment, but the ones I am suggest even those with stronger fundamentals looking forward are easing off. Don't think it will be showing up on the NZX50 chart yet though. Anyone else got a view?

BRICKS
28-09-2005, 09:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Well BRICKS is back in Mr Chips at good prices so Happy eating..[8D]


Well all the boys are at work now making those fry`s cant you sense them pop down to KFC and get some.. [8D]

Snow Leopard
28-09-2005, 04:26 PM
Tigers are stripey not spotted.
We need good eye-sight so that we can select and hunt our food.
There, in the distance, you see a french fry, separated from the main heard....

k1w1
28-09-2005, 04:42 PM
pity that tigers aren't good spellers PT

Snow Leopard
28-09-2005, 05:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by k1w1

pity that tigers aren't good spellers PT

french fries make a lot of noise!

BRICKS
28-09-2005, 09:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by k1w1

pity that tigers aren't good spellers PT

french fries make a lot of noise!


Pity you boys are not s/holders as Well.. [8D]

BRICKS
29-09-2005, 11:00 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Well BRICKS is back in Mr Chips at good prices so Happy eating..[8D]


Well all the boys are at work now making those fry`s cant you sense them pop down to KFC and get some.. [8D]


Boy what a Call BUY 83c,, SELL 1.20 don't come much wider someone should start the ball rolling again.. [8D]

Phaedrus
29-09-2005, 11:56 AM
Well Bricks, I hope for your sake that whoever kicks off is not selling or playing with a very big ball.

There is a just a single buyer for only $2280 worth at 83 cents.
The next buyer (at 75 cents) wants just $3000 worth.
The third and last buyer is offering 70 cents.

The grand total of bids for MCH is just over $12,000. Anyone holding more than this and wanting out would be in deep, deep doodoo.

morv
29-09-2005, 12:20 PM
that would be the danger of investing in a private gentlemans club as oppossed to a listed company. possible in this instance that the shares outside the club are less than 10%, therefore a little illiquid.

BRICKS
29-09-2005, 02:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by morv

that would be the danger of investing in a private gentleman's club as opposed to a listed company. possible in this instance that the shares outside the club are less than 10%, therefore a little illiquid.


Mr Chips is never far from the takeover Zone.. [8D]

limegreen
29-09-2005, 03:30 PM
You would think that if they were going to mount a full takeover they would have done it by now. Either that, or continue their current takeover by stealth strategy where they mop up any sellers under $1.20...

Halebop
29-09-2005, 06:16 PM
AA lets say you have an exceptionally good Strategy for trading and it proves very profitable. Soon your $10,000 is worth $20,000 then $40,000 then...

...At some point being limited to $3,000 trades is going to drag on performance or your $40,000 position will single handedly kill the share price. Timing is not everything. Even technical trading would be useless if we had to react by the minute or second for every trade. Volume is very important no matter what sort of investor you are. At some point you have to reduce your position...

If I wrote a book called "How to make $10,000 in 6 months (but not much more)", I wonder if it would be a best seller?

Halebop
29-09-2005, 08:06 PM
AA you have missed the message. Let me be clearer: Your strategy with MCH only works if you have very little money. Anyone who is or has been succesful at investing will have far too much money to bother with a $2,000 trade. In this example it doesn't take a lot of capital to so qualify.

Halebop
29-09-2005, 10:03 PM
Cool. Now put my first post back into context. That school age investor with $500 to invest presumably is starting early to get ahead early and doesn't yet intend to live off the dividends $500 might generate (in this case perhaps $24 per annum).

So when they turn their $500 into $1,000 into $10,000 etc how do they keep investing it profitably? In a company with zero turnover and a 45% split between highest buy and lowest sell? That School kid could move the whole market and add $9m to this $20m company with a single $500 purchase. Pity the kid if he or she wants to sell though. Pity the whole concept once they have $10,000 or $50,000 to invest.

You might want to take your own advice and open your mind beyond the below average.

Halebop
29-09-2005, 10:51 PM
Please keep it polite.

I can read. I can even do it without moving my lips if I concentrate. I understand even better than I read...

Take what profits and invest elsewhere? Buy 83. Sell 120. Volume Nil. What is the market price of MCH? Say I bought at $1.00 - am I making a profit or loss? Do you think the last sale price is the market price? There is not enough volume in this share to know what the market value is. It's a gamble, a simple lottery to trade this. I'd tell any kids with $500 to invest that their money would be more soundly invested elsewhere.

Halebop
29-09-2005, 11:13 PM
We all win through having a discussion and exchanging ideas. You don't have to concede and you don't have to agree but you did get the opportunity to see a different perspective. Call it a draw because changing your mind about something takes time, if ever.

Personally I can debate about anything and regularly debate points from a perspective opposing my own view. Its fun to thrash something out. Just don't let it become too personal. :whispers: The odd poster around here holds grudges as well...

Halebop
29-09-2005, 11:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

[quote][i]Originally posted by Halebop.

I cant read. I cant even do it without moving my lips even when I concentrate. I understand porn better than I read..;).


...c'mon, nobody really understands porn. They just look at the pictures.

Snow Leopard
30-09-2005, 05:12 AM
Warning: this post contains a [bad] pun..

Well it is nice to see at least one disagreement on this forum end as all sweetness and light. It would seem that when the chips are down we can pull together.

Phaedrus
30-09-2005, 08:14 AM
The "successful" trade that I charted here would have made just 8.5% pa. - and that is only if you could have bought and sold at the points indicated. Don't forget that MCH has at times gone for two months without a single trade.

Now, it could be that aa has a much better system than mine - one that works well with stocks like MCH, that he may be prepared to share. I would certainly like to see it. Very, very few people can make aa's claim that "ive never lost on a stock as yet". If this is true, there is really only one way to achieve it. Make very few buys and hold them for a very long time, regardless of their performance. An integral part of trading is managing the significant proportion of losing trades that you will have - regardless of the system chosen.

No-one has commented on the reason for this post, which was to point out the strange correlation between 2 very different things. The trendline break signals coincided exactly with the movement of the "Smart Money" as depicted by the OBV.
Not that the "smart money" was very smart at all in this instance!

kittydashwood
30-09-2005, 08:21 AM
I am still wrestling with the reliability of the OBV indicator particulary when Money Flow is moving in the opposite direction or when you are working with a time period of less than 6 months.
It seems liquidity can sometimes mask smart money moves while it's harder to hide such moves with illiquid shares like MCH.

BRICKS
30-09-2005, 10:20 AM
quote:Originally posted by kittydashwood

I am still wrestling with the reliability of the OBV indicator particulary when Money Flow is moving in the opposite direction or when you are working with a time period of less than 6 months.
It seems liquidity can sometimes mask smart money moves while it's harder to hide such moves with illiquid shares like MCH.




Note how members talk in Hugh sums of money, Smart money or Dull money but never spend at all on shares,, MCH is a small company but a Good company making money with flat out workers cooking two shifts a day still cant meet demand its only Chips so EAT.. [8D]

winner69
30-09-2005, 11:30 AM
AA ... well done ... you held out andf managed to buy a few at 83 cents

But **** the sell is now 83 cents and the buy 60 cents ...... greedy bugger

BRICKS
30-09-2005, 12:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

AA ... well done ... you held out andf managed to buy a few at 83 cents

But **** the sell is now 83 cents and the buy 60 cents ...... greedy bugger


AA may Hold good on him along with the other MCH real 394 members,, as for Doom Man W69 spoke person for all non members [all NZ Co`s] you have NO added Value.. [8D]

Phaedrus
30-01-2006, 04:03 PM
It can be interesting to go back to controversial old posts after the dust has settled and see how it all panned out. I was browsing through my Dog folder and found this decrepit mongrel. Those putting their money where their mouth was would have lost a bundle on this flea-bitten cur.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MCH130001.gif

JAMP
30-01-2006, 06:40 PM
Buyers at $0.71 and sellers at $1.00.

Much as I would love to double my MCH holding at $0.71, I suspect the bid will need to approach the mid-point of the current spread before there was much selling activity.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MPM MVN NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 07:55 AM
quote:Originally posted by JAMP

Buyers at $0.71 and sellers at $1.00.

Much as I would love to double my MCH holding at $0.71, I suspect the bid will need to approach the mid-point of the current spread before there was much selling activity.

Regards JAMP


Poor Mr CHIPS a very small company and tight holding so not like the "others" all the trouble started when doubling production,,
so Mr CHART man if the smart money got in seven years ago tell where the Co will be in seven years time 2013 you cant,, the two main shareholders are BUYing at 71 cents but to mean to bid its up to them just like CAH.. [8D]

Phaedrus
31-01-2006, 09:55 AM
CAH? Good equivalent, Bricks. Another example of a poorly managed, poorly performing company!

There aren't too many stocks that are 30% - 50% below what they were 12 years ago, but CAH and MCH qualify. With performance like that, I feel compassion for the major shareholders. These people have, however, demonstrated their lack of investing acumen - not a good group to emulate, I would have thought.

The "smart money" (such as it was) got out of MCH in August 2003. I bet you wish you had done the same!

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 10:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

CAH? Good equivalent, Bricks. Another example of a poorly managed, poorly performing company!

There aren't too many stocks that are 30% - 50% below what they were 12 years ago, but CAH and MCH qualify. With performance like that, I feel compassion for the major shareholders. These people have, however, demonstrated their lack of investing acumen - not a good group to emulate, I would have thought.

The "smart money" (such as it was) got out of MCH in August 2003. I bet you wish you had done the same!


Just for you only BRICKS was out and only rekindled of late with NO regret,, now look at your CHART and tell us where to NOW,, You cant..
charts are history only.. [8D]

Year of the Tiger
31-01-2006, 10:57 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]

now look at your CHART and tell us where to NOW,, You cant..
charts are history only.. [8D]


Here is me still pondering this TA stuff [V]

My guess here is that Phaedrus would continue to chart this stock and once firm indicators of a (possible, or should I say probable) continuing uptrend become apparent, then that would be the time to jump on board.

I understand BRICKS statement that "charts are history only" however I see the importance of being on the ball to notice any changes in those charts. Am I right in summarising by say that "history+current activity= possible future activity?

Disc: I don't hold this stock, just trying to learn from the posted comments.

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 11:06 AM
quote:Originally posted by Year of the Tiger


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]

now look at your CHART and tell us where to NOW,, You cant..
charts are history only.. [8D]


Here is me still pondering this TA stuff [V]

My guess here is that Phaedrus would continue to chart this stock and once firm indicators of a (possible, or should I say probable) continuing uptrend become apparent, then that would be the time to jump on board.

I understand BRICKS statement that "charts are history only" however I see the importance of being on the ball to notice any changes in those charts. Am I right in summarising by say that "history+current activity= possible future activity?

Disc: I don't hold this stock, just trying to learn from the posted comments.




AND your the "Year of the Tiger" ***** pick another name.. [8D]

Year of the Tiger
31-01-2006, 11:17 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]


AND your the "Year of the Tiger" ***** pick another name.. [8D]


Hey BRICKS, sorry we aren't all instant brilliant buggars like you. Some of us just like to take things slowly and actually learn something...

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 11:39 AM
quote:Originally posted by Year of the Tiger


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

[quote]


AND your the "Year of the Tiger" ***** pick another name.. [8D]


Hey BRICKS, sorry we aren't all instant brilliant buggars like you. Some of us just like to take things slowly and actually learn something...



Don't brag talk on the subject.. Mr CHIPS the next slow Takeover.. [8D]

Phaedrus
31-01-2006, 11:47 AM
YOTT (Yottie?)
It's all about trends. See http://sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00514.shtml
Trends often continue for years. For example, MCH was in a downtrend for 5 years, then an uptrend for the next 5 years. It is currently in a downtrend, and has been for years - only a month ago it made a new 5 year low.
The idea is to buy and hold stocks that are in uptrends, selling when the uptrend weakens or ends. Why buy or hold a stock that is heading South?

At a practical level, this stock is all but untradeable. It can (and does) go for over a month without a single transaction! The current Bid/Ask is 71cents/$1!! The bid is for $3240 worth, the Sell (clearly a major player) is for $7000 worth! With liquidity like this, it is practically impossible to build up a meaningful holding, and if you should ever manage to do so, how can you hope to realise any of the gains that you might have made on paper?

If for some strange reason you did want to buy this stock, technically, the idea would be to wait until it was in an uptrend. MCH has been in a downtrend for years. No-one knows how long this downtrend will continue, or how low it will go. As sharebrokers say - Avoid.

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 12:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

YOTT (Yottie?)
It's all about trends. See http://sharechat.co.nz/archives/2001/06/msg00514.shtml
Trends often continue for years. For example, MCH was in a downtrend for 5 years, then an uptrend for the next 5 years. It is currently in a downtrend, and has been for years - only a month ago it made a new 5 year low.
The idea is to buy and hold stocks that are in uptrends, selling when the uptrend weakens or ends. Why buy or hold a stock that is heading South?

At a practical level, this stock is all but untradeable. It can (and does) go for over a month without a single transaction! The current Bid/Ask is 71cents/$1!! The bid is for $3240 worth, the Sell (clearly a major player) is for $7000 worth! With liquidity like this, it is practically impossible to build up a meaningful holding, and if you should ever manage to do so, how can you hope to realise any of the gains that you might have made on paper?

If for some strange reason you did want to buy this stock, technically, the idea would be to wait until it was in an uptrend. MCH has been in a downtrend for years. No-one knows how long this downtrend will continue, or how low it will go. As sharebrokers say - Avoid.


Now that is Good sound reasoning so stick with it.. not all companies run just to make a chart look good you have to understand the company too and the management and what could happen NEXT,,??.. [8D]

Placebo
31-01-2006, 01:43 PM
Not so sure BRICKS. If you follow through with what Phaedrus and his TA colleagues do then the financial status of the company is irrelevant. They can lose money hand over fist, never make a buck in their lives, they don't care so long as the chart shows various indicators and trends.

I assume this is the reason why some stocks suddenly become sexy and run away with themselves for no apparent reason other than that they are suddenly in the limelight, and even though any rigorous FA would say "avoid", they continue to go up and up, defying gravity, defying logic. Surely this couldn't happen?

I wonder how many pure techies are our there...

duncan macgregor
31-01-2006, 02:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Not so sure BRICKS. If you follow through with what Phaedrus and his TA colleagues do then the financial status of the company is irrelevant. They can lose money hand over fist, never make a buck in their lives, they don't care so long as the chart shows various indicators and trends.

I assume this is the reason why some stocks suddenly become sexy and run away with themselves for no apparent reason other than that they are suddenly in the limelight, and even though any rigorous FA would say "avoid", they continue to go up and up, defying gravity, defying logic. Surely this couldn't happen?

I wonder how many pure techies are our there...
Logic has nothing to do with it. I really dont see how a techie would be a holder. The fundamentals appear muddled, but then some body out there must love them. I wonder how many pure TA or pure FA people are out there. I think most of us are a bit of both to a certain extent. PHEADRUS for instance is one of the best TA investors, but gives us the fundamentals of a thinly traded share. I would venture to say that if this sp turned round PHEADRUS would not buy into it, for thinly traded fundamental reasons. macdunk
PS excuse me using your name as an example PHEADRUS

OldRider
31-01-2006, 02:25 PM
I suspect that FA investors can get by with a smattering of TA, rather better than TA investors can get by with only a smattering of FA.

I fall into the first group, and have as a maxim never buy short term what you wouldn't hold long term.

Phaedrus
31-01-2006, 02:25 PM
Feel free to quote me as much as you like McDunk - but would it be asking too much for you to spell my moniker correctly?

Phaedrus (Pheadrus is, in fact, different)

duncan macgregor
31-01-2006, 02:43 PM
SORRY PHAEDRUS, I wont edit it. You didnt even spell MACDUNK right you IRISH GIT. Call it quits Eh?. MAC means son of so therefore MAC means son of DUNK. Whats your explanation [ no good at fundamentals i presume].

JAMP
10-02-2006, 06:10 PM
Short-term down-trend broken...not that I believe this is an appropriate stock for TA.

Annual Report for y/e Mar05 list consolidated L&B carrying value of $5.962M + WIP (coldstore at East Tamaki Site) of $0.266M.

I wonder whether there are any plans in the wind to ascertain fair value for the L&B? Such action certainly jolted SAT into life after a period in the doldrums. Hmmm, worth pondering.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK

BRICKS
11-02-2006, 10:58 AM
quote:Originally posted by JAMP

Short-term down-trend broken...not that I believe this is an appropriate stock for TA.

Annual Report for y/e Mar05 list consolidated L&B carrying value of $5.962M + WIP (coldstore at East Tamaki Site) of $0.266M.

I wonder whether there are any plans in the wind to ascertain fair value for the L&B? Such action certainly jolted SAT into life after a period in the doldrums. Hmmm, worth pondering.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT NWFOA SAT
Unlisted: BRK



AT 75 cents looks to cheap the Co at takeover price is $1+ at lease but is moving along,, Cold stores should be up and running independence is always the name of the game the next report should show the WAY.. [8D]

BRICKS
23-08-2007, 04:46 PM
AS this is not the latest thread but will do,, Sales up 30% and NZ $ down so the year ahead will be tops as stated in the statement out TODAY..

BRICKS
10-10-2007, 10:56 AM
Mr CHIPS wot people love to eat, Well he just hit a new high $1.40 and will go higher as there not that many around looking back when MCH @ 75 cents and all the brains around where telling BRICKS there mean thoughts well look at it NOW...

Te Whetu
10-10-2007, 12:31 PM
Well turnover is so low that many of the technicals aren't going to like the stock. The price could collapse and a stop-loss would be no protection whatsoever...

Will be interested in the half year performance, results should be out within the month. Wondering how much of those sales have been transferred across to the bottom line. Expecting for further increases in share price if good growth has been made here.

Looking good, I was in earlier, but increased holding at $1.30 when it dropped back from $1.35 after the 30% announcement.

Cheers,
Shaun



PS. Thanks go out to RBD for increasing sales. :p

BRICKS
29-10-2007, 02:51 PM
MCH the chip stock hits $1.40 will be $2.00 this time next YEAR..

Phaedrus
29-10-2007, 06:52 PM
Well Bricks, this was a red-letter day for you. MCH was up 3.7% in a single day smashing through previous resistance at $1.35 - a level that had held for 6 years. The breakout (on a volume of 4,687) is marked by the blue arrow. MCH also made a new 13 year high. Note the rising OBV - this is Bullish. The steps in the OBV mark smart money activity.

Technically, at this stage there is no sign of weakness - who knows how far this uptrend could run? I hope you have an exit strategy in place - a break of the trendline, for example. You can see from the attached market depth table that buyers outnumber sellers 2:1 and that the bid/ask spread is down to just over 7%.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MCH1029a.gif

A negative here is that the sale went through at the bid, rather than the ask.

Those that bought at the trendline break (green arrow) would have profited handsomely from this stock over the last year or two. Theoretically.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MCH1029b.gif

OldRider
29-10-2007, 08:11 PM
Any conclusions drawn about MCH come from such a tiny amount of activity, that things could change quickly, up or down, nonetheless the trend is in the right direction at the moment.

I have noticed that for some time, with each rise in price, almost immediately the bid price moves upwards, usually by the amount of the rise, to the last sale price. Seems someone is trying to accumulate, with great patience trying not to move the price too much, so maybe downside risk not so great.

BRICKS
07-01-2008, 04:26 PM
WELL we hit $1.50 today as stated will $2 in 2008...

BRICKS
10-01-2008, 08:08 AM
perhaps you may like to comment on your other perrenial favourites Brick since you are sounding chuffed with the chip

SCY, BGR and PPG?

all charts looking spookily familiar....ie down trends for a year +:D

THANKYOU for your request but I make NO general comments for public consumption.

But will say:-

Don't own any BGR & PPG shares coz not worth the paper they are written on.

As for SCY & RBD shares they are a BARGIN..

Regards.

JMKC
10-01-2008, 06:53 PM
RBD is a bargain but BGR isn't? BGR's NTA is something like $1.75 and they have net cash on the balance sheet! RBD can never get all three brands performing well at the same time, and I would suggest Pizza Hut (which was their mainstay for many years) will never reach the same level of performance of 2.5 years ago.

Yes someone could try and take RBD over, but that is the same with any listed stock...if I was an industry OR financial buyer I know which of the 2 I would take...

Snoopy
11-01-2008, 12:28 AM
RBD is a bargain but BGR isn't? BGR's NTA is something like $1.75 and they have net cash on the balance sheet! RBD can never get all three brands performing well at the same time, and I would suggest Pizza Hut (which was their mainstay for many years) will never reach the same level of performance of 2.5 years ago.

Yes someone could try and take RBD over, but that is the same with any listed stock...if I was an industry OR financial buyer I know which of the 2 I would take...

What is the relative size of BGR compared to market leader the Warehouse? What is the relative size of RBD compared to market leader McDonalds (in New Zealand)? What do you think that says about the relative 'market power' of each brand?

Pizza Hut was never the mainstay for RBD. RBD's mainstay in terms of profitability, was always KFC and it still is. How many nationwide chicken chains are there in the fast food market in New Zealand? How many general mechandise stores are there in your largest local shopping mall?

Do you see that sometimes the questions you need to ask are not answered in the respective annual reports?

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD, do not hold BGR

POSSUM THE CAT
11-01-2008, 07:25 AM
Snoopy when does there rights to use the brands expire. And what is the cost of renewing these rights going to be Yum Brands hold all the aces.

BRICKS
11-01-2008, 07:55 AM
Snoopy when does there rights to use the brands expire. And what is the cost of renewing these rights going to be Yum Brands hold all the aces.

OBTAIN the latest report and read all about it,, better still buy some RBD shares and they send it to you FREE..

JMKC
11-01-2008, 10:40 AM
What is the relative size of BGR compared to market leader the Warehouse? What is the relative size of RBD compared to market leader McDonalds (in New Zealand)? What do you think that says about the relative 'market power' of each brand?

Pizza Hut was never the mainstay for RBD. RBD's mainstay in terms of profitability, was always KFC and it still is. How many nationwide chicken chains are there in the fast food market in New Zealand? How many general mechandise stores are there in your largest local shopping mall?

Do you see that sometimes the questions you need to ask are not answered in the respective annual reports?

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD, do not hold BGR

Actually, Pizza Hut was the mainstay in terms of profit growth. Up until 2-3 years ago, KFC was not profitable, and it was Pizza Hut (and to a lesser extent given its relative size Starbucks) that was underpinning performance. Happy to find the old annual report if you would like, or perhaps you could look through all the reports you clearly have on your bedside table?

As far as general merchandise in my local shopping mall, the market is obviously reasonably fragmented and there are lots of small private players as well as larger ones eg Farmers. However comparing WHS to BGR is not really relevant. BGR made a conscious effort to improve the quality of their product offering thus not compete with WHS who sell (for the most part) lower quality goods.

You talk about "market power". Pizza Hut has ZERO market power (think Dominos, Hell, Tempt). Starbucks has limited mkt power (certainly less than it used to given the consumer shift away from a) their brand and b) mass produced coffee. KFC has SOME mkt power, however this is only in fried chicken. You cannot tell me that with the current push away from obesity and foods with large amounts of saturated fats that you think KFC is a growth business?!?

If you are talking about value investing, only one of these companies is a candidate.

Disc: Hold neither BGR nor RBD

BRICKS
11-01-2008, 11:53 AM
MCH & RBD are BIZ partners and this is there thread as we got on this discussion by mistake please revert to proper CHANNELS..

BRICKS
21-02-2008, 11:14 AM
WELL kiss my ass BRICKS dose it again MCH Hits $2 @ 122% profit yet another BARGAIN..

Just push on with RBD and collect, "LOVE THE STUFF"

tim23
21-02-2008, 11:21 AM
Well done did you sell any yet?

BRICKS
21-02-2008, 11:44 AM
Well done did you sell any yet?

NO... message to short,, so NO, NO & NO, Regards..

minimoke
21-02-2008, 01:14 PM
A 30% rise this month in this market is nothing to be sneezed at.

Phaedrus
21-02-2008, 03:16 PM
Well done Bricks and good on you for continuing to hold - why sell when there are no sell signals?

I hope you don't hold too many MCH though. You can see from the market depth that currently there are buyers for just $10,890.50 worth. Maybe you are hoping that a takeover will enable you to get your profits out.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MCHdpth221.gif

I appreciate that you are excited by a jump in price of over 8%, but do keep in mind that this was triggered by a single sale of just 1000 shares. A sale of only 6200 shares would take out every current buyer, leaving MCH without a single bid on the board.

As a longterm buy and hold, MCH has been a disaster. You would have made a profit by following the "smart money" - but you would have made more by following the trends.

Isn't it interesting that the "smart money" activity of 1998 and 2003 tallied exactly with the trendline break signals!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/MCH221.gif

Phaedrus
25-02-2008, 10:53 AM
It's all too easy to forget the human dimension that lies behind every sharemarket transaction. I stumbled across this touching example when looking at the market depth of MCH.

See the bid for 250 at 195? What sort of person invests $487.50 at a time? Are they some schoolkid making their very first sharemarket purchase? A struggling solo-mum striving to invest for her children's future? An old-age pensioner aiming to have enough invested to cover their funeral expenses by the time they die? We will never know.

Interestingly, this order was not always that big - initially it was for just 200 at 195. What happened? Had the bidder ransacked his kids moneyboxes and come up with the extra $97.50? Found some money beneath the cushions on the sofa? Decided to go without food for that week? Whoever it was and whatever their circumstances, the poor sod is battling the odds all the way. For a start they will be paying over 12% brokerage on their trade instead of the usual 0.4%.

Anyhow, there it stood - 2 denizens of the bourse going head to head. One bidding 195 for 250, the other offering to sell 9000 at 200, with neither side willing to give way. Finally, after an inordinate amount of time, the Mexican Standoff was broken. Our man blinked. At God knows what personal cost, he somehow came up with another $12.50 and bought at the offer - clearly demonstrating Escalation of Commitment, if nothing else.

I am torn between pity for this character and admiration for their valiant attempt at investment. What else can you do with just $500?

Market Update:- 23,750 MCH are now for sale at 200 but there are buyers for just 5,949. Let's hope no-one is in a hurry to sell. It is not easy getting out of "Investments" like this one.

rimu
28-02-2008, 06:52 AM
with such light turnover, i wonder if you can seriously do any TA on it... how can you say 'smart money in' when the amounts of money (smart or otherwise) is so tiny?

isn't smart money usually large institutions, etc?

Phaedrus
28-02-2008, 09:19 AM
with such light turnover, I wonder if you can seriously do any TA on it...
Sure you can - it works surprisingly well. The problem lies in implementing any buy/sell decision - but this is difficult in illiquid stocks regardless of how that decision was reached.


how can you say 'smart money in' when the amounts of money (smart or otherwise) is so tiny?
Tiny? Over $600,000 in some instances as charted here!


...isn't smart money usually large institutions, etc?
Yes, it often is, but it pays to keep an eye on what any big player is doing. Big money is assumed to be smart money. They probably have access to information denied to mug punters like us.

Steve
18-03-2008, 07:06 PM
in 3 years! there have been 3-4 days with trades totalling over $100k, 3 years!!!

hardly what you would call smart money and most days there are NO trades.

The smart money doesn't have to be in large amounts or traded on a regular basis. Keep in mind what proportion of the shares are actually 'freely' tradable for this illiquid equity...

BRICKS
19-03-2008, 01:02 PM
THIS year will be a record profit & div for MCH and will rub off on RBD as WELL...

BRICKS
25-03-2008, 06:03 PM
WENT to the RAS show yesterday and still cant believe CHIPS millions of them they cant keep the supply up to the mob, people get touchy waiting to be feed [$4 a bucket], NO wonder MCH is exporting to Oz and having to extend the production line to cater this result will be a BOOMER..

mattakapil
30-03-2008, 02:59 PM
any idea where is it heading..... shall hold it for some time and does it seems it will hit $2.10 in the next few weeks. looking at the threads that have been posted.

cheers

BRICKS
15-04-2008, 02:55 PM
any idea where is it heading..... shall hold it for some time and does it seems it will hit $2.10 in the next few weeks. looking at the threads that have been posted.

cheers

ONLY small amounts that's the way it is and the market is getting SMALLER..

BRICKS
17-04-2008, 01:36 PM
THIS year will be a record profit & div for MCH and will rub off on RBD as WELL...

WELL bugger me a takeover how sweet it is,, BRICKS has taken a lot of abuse on this site over the years but also picked many t/o and good stocks and made money QUITELY all the time so this is just one more feather in the CAP...

COLIN
17-04-2008, 01:43 PM
WELL bugger me a takeover how sweet it is,, BRICKS has taken a lot of abuse on this site over the years but also picked many t/o and good stocks and made money QUITELY all the time so this is just one more feather in the CAP...

Well I will offer you my congratulations, so that you don't feel unadmired. Unfortunately I don't hold any.
They say that the offer price is expected to be at a "substantial" premium to market price. Any guesses as to how "substantial" this "substantial" might be? (Last time I looked I saw someone offering 205 but no sellers.)

BRICKS
17-04-2008, 03:41 PM
IT will be a couple of weeks before all the details will become clear so if you would like to bid up the MCH s/price in the time being you mite snare a couple of SHARES..

POSSUM THE CAT
17-04-2008, 04:05 PM
Bricks are they going to do a F&P or What?

BRICKS
17-04-2008, 05:05 PM
Bricks are they going to do a F&P or What?

WILL stay in NZ and not sack any KIWI`s..

BRICKS
02-05-2008, 12:44 PM
WELL there is a seller of Mr Chips @ $2.65, so what will be the farewell swan song as they leave the NZX, BRICKS knows it will not be $4 so what dose that leave substantial price feel some where $3 to $3.50 so what about $3.30 for a bet, so if you want to bet @ $2.65 best get a move ON...

BRICKS
31-05-2008, 09:17 AM
WELL the time has come to say "GOODBYE Mr Chips" and thanks for filling up my BANK account yet again, sorry that you are leaving the NZX but that's life you have left me with RBD to carry on Selling the good Chip as i have told all the members that you where a GOOD BUY now the same has been said for "RBD" so THANKS AGAIN...

winner69
27-08-2013, 10:19 AM
So Mr Chips back in NZ hands
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/9091229/Mr-Chips-is-NZ-owned-again

Never know ....might be a potential IPO one day

BRICKS loved his Mr Chips - I believe BRICKS has passed away. Is this right?