Goodman Fielder IPO

[Snow Leopard]

[quote]quote:
BPH
29/09/2005
GENERAL

REL: 1249 HRS Burns Philp & Company Limited

GENERAL: BPH: New Listing of Goodman Fielder along with purchase of NZDF

Burns Philp announces new listing of Goodman Fielder together with the
purchase of New Zealand Dairy Foods Limited, which will be included in the
new listing.

Burns Philp plans to establish a new Australasian food company, intended to
be listed on the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges under the name of
Goodman Fielder. Burns Philp will retain a significant shareholding in the
company together with appropriate board representation. The Goodman Fielder
businesses will comprise Burns Philp's existing Baking division together with
its existing Spreads & Oils division. Burns Philp's Snack Food Division
including Uncle Tobys, Le Snak and Bluebird in New Zealand will not be
included.

In addition, Burns Philp has, through Goodman Fielder, entered into a
conditional agreement with Rank Group Limited to acquire New Zealand Dairy
Foods Limited, a national supplier of dairy foods and small goods in New
Zealand. The business will be merged with Goodman Fielder's New Zealand
operations. Burns Philp believes that this will facilitate the realisation of
significant synergies (which will accrue to Goodman Fielder) and will provide
a platform from which to further develop the group's dairy interests. The
new Goodman Fielder will settle the acquisition shortly after completion of
the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Goodman Fielder. The terms of the
acquisition provide for the price paid to be calculated on the same price
multiples achieved for the IPO but with the earnings to be subject to due
diligence, an earn-out and to be capped. Complete details of the
acquisition will be disclosed in the Prospectus. Burns Philp has arranged
for an Independent Report to be prepared by Grant Samuel & Associates Pty
Limited.

The initiative to partially divest Burns Philp's interest in these businesses
is driven by its board of directors who believe that significant value has
been created and consider it appropriate at this stage to realise that
capital for redeployment. By maintaining a strategic shareholding and board
representation, Burns Philp believes that it will also be able to contribute
to and participate in the ongoing profitability and growth of the Goodman
Fielder businesses.

Further, Burns Philp has today made a conditional tender offer for its three
outstanding series of high yield US Notes for a total offer price of
approximately US$820 million. The effect of this offer, if fully taken up by
note holders, will be to repay the outstanding indebtedness under these
Notes. Burns Philp will be funding the tender offer through a mixture of
cash on deposit and a new debt facility.

Burns Philp's proposed new listing of Goodman Fielder in the latter part of
this year will depend upon:

- all necessary regulatory approvals including New Zealand Overseas
Investment Office approval, being obtained;

- any required shareholder approvals being obtained;

- Burns Philp successfully purchasing a majority of its three
outstanding series of high yield US notes and putting in place senior debt
facilities for the Goodman Fielder business;

- no adverse change to financial or capital market conditions in
Australia or the United States; and

- acceptable underwriting and offer management arrangements being
concluded.

If the final decision to proceed with the float is made by the Burns Philp
board, full details of the offer will be provided in an offer document to be
lodged with the Australian Investment and Securities Commission.

Burns Philp proposes to give a priority allocation of shares in Goodman
Fielder to its existing shareholders, including holders of its converting
preference shares.

GOODMAN FIELDER

Summary details of the businesses to be included

[Snow Leopard]

It would seem that the lead broker thinks this an absolutely wonderful stock.
Now there's a surprise! [:0]
[quote]quote:from NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10353227)

Goodman Fielder given upbeat valuation

02.11.05 1.40pm


New Zealand billionaire Graeme Hart's new food group, Goodman Fielder, has been given a bullish value by one of the brokers arranging its upcoming share float.

Goodman Fielder has been valued at between A$4.2 billion ($4.53 billion) and A$5.3 billion on an enterprise basis - A$1 billion more than previous market estimates - by Credit Suisse First Boston analysts, the Australian Financial Review reported today.

Credit Suisse First Boston is the global coordinator for the initial public offer (IPO).

After taking into account debt of about A$1.2 billion, the new Goodman Fielder would have an equity valuation of between A$2.9 billion and A$4 billion, making the resurrected food company one of this year's largest floats.

At A$4.2 billion, Goodman Fielder would rank among global food giants ConAgra and Nestle in terms of earnings multiples. The mid-point of A$4.7 billion would put it alongside Cadbury Schweppes, Campbell's Soup and Heinz.

In comparison, analysts at Macquarie Bank - one of three lead managers of the float - have valued Goodman Fielder at between A$3.3 billion and A$3.9 billion and its equity between A$2.2 billion and A$2.8 billion.

Goodman Fielder is hoping to raise more than A$2.25 billion when it lists on the Australian Stock Exchange, according to details released last week.

Burns Philp's baking, spreads and oil business will be sold into the new vehicle for A$1.47 billion along with Mr Hart's privately-owned Rank Group's dairy operations for A$782.6 million.

Mr Hart owns 54 per cent of Burns Philp through Rank.

Burns Philp is keen to maximise proceeds from the float, set to take place on the Australian and New Zealand exchanges later this year, having spent more than two years overhauling the business it acquired in a hostile A$1.9 billion takeover in 2003.

However, with equity markets starting to wobble and with at least three major floats due across the Tasman before the end of the year, the lead managers - Credit Suisse First Boston, Macquarie Bank and UBS - will have a tough task trying to match Burns' expectations with those of potential investors.

In investor presentations ahead of the prospectus, Burns has been highlighting the solid double-digit earnings growth expected from Goodman's four main divisions over the next two years, as well as its high dividend yield, strong cash flows and capital efficiency and the potential for bolt-on acquisitions and business expansion down the track.

Credit Suisse First Boston analysts are forecasting 10 per cent growth in earnings (EBITDA) in 2006 and 13 per cent in 2007 - slightly above the 12 per cent growth forecast in preliminary financial data released last week.

However, earnings growth will slow to 2 per cent after fiscal 2008, the broker believes.

Burns also hopes the appointment of Peter Margin as chief executive after his departure from former sharemarket favourite National Foods will act as a drawcard for investors.

Apart from Mr Margin and newly appointed chief financial officer Andrew Beck, the heads of Goodman Fielder's five key divisions all joined the company before the Burns takeover and have endured the roller-coaster ride since.

The new company will hold some of Australasia's best known brands including Wonder White, Mighty Soft and Helga's breads, Meadow Lea margarine, Pampas pastry and White Wings cake mixes.

Burns, Philp & Co posted a seven-fold increase in net profit to A$861.9 million in fiscal 2005, boosted by asset sales. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from continuing operations in fiscal 2005 were A$414.2 million.

Mr Hart, New Zealand's

[Placebo]

Yes I find it difficult to believe Goodman Fielder on the same level as a Nestle or Heinz...

Although having said that, even at the $2.2 to $2.8bn Macquarie Bank figure it's still a biggie...

[rmbbrave]

Private offer a Hart-stopper

15.11.05
By Liam Dann


The future of the Goodman Fielder float remained uncertain last night as Graeme Hart and his Burns Philp team took trade-sale negotiations right down to the wire.

The market has been braced for the cancellation of the float since Friday, when the prospectus for the IPO failed to materialise.

Hart's team spent yesterday poring through a substantial offer made by a partnership of private investment firms, believed to be Boston-based Bain Capital, Australia's Pacific Equity Partners and international investment bank Goldman Sachs.

Sources said the offer was worth A$3.6 billion ($3.84 billion), the Bloomberg news agency reported.

Hart has already said he expects to realise A$2.5 billion by floating 80 per cent of Goodman.

The new offer would allowed Hart to exit completely - leaving Burns Philp with a swag of cash to hunt worldwide for acquisitions.

In his speech at the Burns Philp annual meeting on November 4, Hart hinted a trade sale was still possible, saying "active discussions" were being held with private investors.

At the time, some brokers felt the statement might be game-playing to heighten broker interest in the float.

Brokers in Australia have been sceptical about the amount of value Hart has left in the business after extensive restructuring and cost-cutting. Some felt there might not be much growth potential.

Aware of those criticisms, Hart's team did a round of broker briefings last Wednesday.

"We were told to be ready to go for Friday - we primed our team on Thursday - but we have heard nothing since," one broker said yesterday.

Pacific Equity Partners, which has majority stakes in companies worth more than $2 billion, was one of the private equity firms that expressed interest in Goodman Fielder back in 2003 before the takeover by Hart and Burns Philp.

Bain Capital controls global assets worth more than US$25 billion and is understood to be aiming to take a controlling stake in the private equity partnership.

A New Zealand broker, who asked to remain anonymous, said it would be a great shame if Goodman did not list.

He said the company would provide a stable defensive stock in the food sector, which was hugely under-represented on the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges.

But as time marched on, the prospect of an IPO before the end of the year - Burns Philp's original aim - was looking less and less likely.

Goodman Fielder was expected to be dual-listed on the ASX and NZX.

The company was created from the spin-off of Burns Philp's ingredients business, which was merged with Hart's NZ Dairy Foods.

Whatever the outcome of the sale, Burns Philp plans to hold on to its lucrative consumer snack foods business, which includes popular brands such as Uncle Toby's.

Diary of an IPO

* September 29: Graeme Hart announces plans to merge New Zealand Dairy Foods with the Burns Philp ingredients business and float a new improved Goodman Fielder on the ASX and the NZX.

* October 6: Burns Philp says it will retain a 20 per cent stake in Goodman. The new company is tipped to have an enterprise value of about $3 billion.

* November 4: At the Burns Philp AGM, Hart says a prospectus will be published on November 10. But he also hints that a trade sale is still on the cards.

* Last Tuesday: Pacific Equity Partners is tipped as a possible buyer.

* Last Thursday: Prospectus fails to materialise, sparking speculation that the float has sunk.

* Yesterday: Burns Philp considers a A$3.6 billion offer from a private equity group consisting of Bain Capital, Pacific Equity Partners and Goldman Sachs.

[rmbbrave]

Goodman Fielder listing to go ahead

16.11.05
By Liam Dann


Graeme Hart has pulled the plug on a private sale of food group Goodman Fielder and will forge ahead with a stock market listing less than a week out from Christmas.

The prospectus - overdue since Friday - was finally lodged with the Australian stock exchange yesterday.

It reveals that Goodman Fielder will have market capitalisation of up to A$2.65 billion ($2.83 billion) and will begin trading on December 19.

The market had been anticipating the cancellation of the float since Friday, when the prospectus failed to appear.

Hart and his team spent all of Monday crunching numbers on a last-minute bid from a partnership of private investment firms - Boston-based Bain Capital, Australia's Pacific Equity Partners and international investment bank Goldman Sachs. The offer was reported to be worth up to A$3.6 billion, excluding Goodman Fielder's debt.

Hart said yesterday that there was not a great financial difference between the value of the private offer and the expected value of the IPO.

Burns Philp expects Goodman, including its A$1.1 billion in debt, to have an enterprise value of up to A$3.75 billion.

As a condition of the IPO Burns Philp has committed to retaining a stake of at least 20 per cent in Goodman Fielder. Hart said it could end up retaining as much as 30 per cent.

The private sale would have allowed Burns Philp to sell-out completely.

Hart conceded there were some tax advantages to retaining a stake but said they were not the main driver behind the decision.

The possibility of delaying the float until the New Year had also been considered, he said. But Burns Philp's advisers had indicated there was enough time to get it away.

The share issue will include a general retail offer, a priority offer for existing Burns Philp shareholders and an institutional offer.

Burns Philp chief executive Tom Degnan will chair the board of directors. He will be joined on the board by Hart and his Rank Group offsider Tim Hardman. Goodman's new chief executive, Peter Margin, will also join the board as will former National Foods chairman Max Ould and New Zealand-based former Foodstuffs managing director Hugh Perrett.

The company has forecast operating profits of A$419 million for the 2006 year and A$466 million for the 2007 year. That equates to earnings per share of 14.1Ac and 16.9Ac respectively.

The retail offer opens on November 25 and closes on December 9.

[BRICKS]

AND with the money left over there snack division could BUY Mr Chips to round off another food company.. [8D]

[rmbbrave]

Hart floats Goodman Fielder
16 November 2005
By PAM GRAHAM

The float is on of Goodman Fielder, deliverer of daily bread to 10,000 stores.


New Zealand billionaire Graeme Hart said the decision by his company Burns Philp was not simply about money. "For sure, we could have sold 100 per cent of this business yesterday.

"What it came down to from our perspective was primarily a desire to remain involved."

Goodman Fielder would be listed on the Australian and New Zealand sharemarkets instead of being sold privately to Pacific Equity Partners and Bain Capital.

Burns Philp, the Australian food company majority controlled by Mr Hart's Rank Group, has turned Goodman Fielder around in the three years since taking it over and delisting it.

Yesterday Burns Philp dismissed talk that Goodman Fielder was an ordinary listing in the past and might be again in the future.

"It is a different Goodman Fielder," Burns Philp chief executive Tom Degnan said. "This Goodman Fielder is a brand new powerhouse led by a proven management team."

The New Zealand boss is Alison Taylor.

The new Goodman Fielder is the old business minus snackfoods. It will buy Mr Hart's New Zealand dairy assets at the same earnings multiple achieved in the float.

Synergies expected in New Zealand are one of the float's selling points. About A$10 million (NZ$10.7 million) of savings are expected. "I'd be disappointed if that is all we get," Mr Degnan said.

Burns Philp is selling between 927.5 million and 1.06 billion Goodman Fielder shares at between A$1.85 and A$2 each, giving the company a market capitalisation of between A$2.45 billion and A$2.65 billion.

Including net debt of A$1.1 billion, this will give it an enterprise value of at least A$3.5 billion.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe final price will be set later, as will the size of the shareholding Burns Philp will retain. It is expected to be between 20 per cent and 30 per cent.

The offer closes on December 9. The shares will list on December 19.

It is a tight timetable ahead of Christmas but will give the New Zealand Exchange a fillip as it faces possibly losing Carter Holt Harvey in a separate bid by Mr Hart.

"The company is an important part of the local economy and the New Zealand public will now have a chance to participate in its growth," NZX chief executive Mark Weldon said.

Mr Hart said high quality IPOs were in short supply.

He denied he was selling Goodman Fielder to support the separate NZ$3.3 billion bid for Carter Holt Harvey.

Carter Holt was separate and "fabulous", he said.

Investors wonder what Burns Philp will do to build the snackfood business it is retaining with the cash it will have from the float.

Mr Hart said Burns Philp began the process of refloating Goodman Fielder two to three months ago. "We were approached two weeks ago, maybe three weeks ago, by Bain and they expressed a credible interest (in buying Goodman Fielder)."

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

AND with the money left over there snack division could BUY Mr Chips to round off another food company.. [8D]


NOW the papers are saying a "DUD" looks big and beautiful but its a fancy refinance JOB to keep the empire afloat and when the smoke clears Mr H will still own the LOT.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

AND with the money left over there snack division could BUY Mr Chips to round off another food company.. [8D]


NOW the papers are saying a "DUD" looks big and beautiful but its a fancy refinance JOB to keep the empire afloat and when the smoke clears Mr H will still own the LOT.. [8D]


ANY comments.. [8D]

[Snow Leopard]

Sure, your former highness.

Are you buying into this IPO or are you going to sit on the sidewalk and see how it goes?

your loyal subject
Paper Tiger

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Sure, your former highness.

Are you buying into this IPO or are you going to sit on the sidewalk and see how it goes?

your loyal subject
Paper Tiger


ITS up to you to find out but read again my comments,, so your telling US your a BUYER.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

Is G. Hart the new Eric Watson of the market?

They come and go so fast these days, you just cant keep up.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

AND with the money left over there snack division could BUY Mr Chips to round off another food company.. [8D]


NOW the papers are saying a "DUD" looks big and beautiful but its a fancy refinance JOB to keep the empire afloat and when the smoke clears Mr H will still own the LOT.. [8D]


ANY comments.. [8D]


ANY REAL comments .. [8D]

[rmbbrave]

Caution over Goodman float
20 November 2005
By GARRY SHEERAN

Solid, not sexy, a bit like dough. That's the emerging consensus on Graeme Hart's Christmas present to New Zealand - the sharemarket (re)listing of baking and dairy business Goodman Fielder.


But will it rise - and when? Or will it, like turning milk or over-green cheese, turn sour in the mouths of investors?

Hart's listing of a company which carries as many household names as a weekend supermarket shopping trolley is like a double-headed coin. And it is Hart's face - not the Queen's - on both sides.

Right side up, Hart's smiling, and the world is smiling too. Hart is Australasia's smartest businessman, and everyone wants to join a winner. So if he's keeping up to 40% of a company soon to re-float, that is good reason to get on board too.

Flip the coin, and Hart is still smiling. But not the world. Since July 2003, Hart has been diligently knocking what one commentator called "a dog for 15 years" into excellent shape.

He has cut costs, boosted margins, streamlined management and increased product development.

Hart has extracted value for Goodman Fielder majority owner Burns Philp and himself. Now he wants to sell a swag of the company to New Zealanders.

But what's left in it for mum and dad investors?

Tyndall Investment equity manager James Lindsay said the fact Hart would retain a significant holding in the soon-to-float company was positive for investors.

"But he's so good at extracting value from businesses that buying it off him at this stage may not be a good thing."

ASB Securities managing director Tim Preston said Hart had probably left something on the table for investors, "but not a huge amount, I suspect".

Like other big "name" investors, Hart has his followers - people who invest in whatever he has put his name to.

"But if you follow Graeme Hart per se, you'll have followed him into Carter Holt Harvey, or you would still be in Burns Philp," said Preston. "That's where some of the cash from the float is going."

Preston said his phones had not run hot since details of the float, which opens on Friday, were announced mid-week.

"That's usually a good indicator of what retail investors are thinking."

Fund managers have yet to analyse the fine print of prospectus, but note that healthy sales figures projected for the first two years of the business's renewed life as a listed company will result from cost-cutting programmes.

"But how accurate are the cost-out numbers, and where will the business go then?" asked Lindsay.

Institutional investors will have to buy Goodman Fielder shares for index positioning. Prospective issue share price ($1.98-$2.14) will give the company a market capitalisation of $A2.45-$A2.65 billion ($2.82b) and it will stroll into the NZSX50 Index.

But the question for retail investors is whether they need to apply for shares in the float.

Preston said the listing was fantastic for the market.

"We desperately need companies of this calibre on the boards. It is a good company, but at what price do you buy it?" he asked.

"I don't think the financials and the fundamentals are so compelling that you have to be there on day one."

[BRICKS]

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]

[rmbbrave]

I have yet to see any articles saying that the SP is going to go up 10-20% on the first day. And if the SP isn't going to go up what is the point of buying at IPO. It is better to wait until later - unless I see something that changes my mind that's what I will be doing.

Contrast this with the Vector float. Every man and his dog expected a good float - and we got one.

Ignore Goodman Fielder at your own peril
25 November 2005
By TERRY HALL

Kiwi investors may be about to miss out on a rare opportunity to buy a substantial stake in one of our most important companies, Goodman Fielder - and with it a host of household brands like MeadowFresh, Molenberg, Vogels and Olivani.


There is a lot more disappointment about Alan Hubbard's abrupt decision to abandon his plans to list his company, South Canterbury Finance, on the New Zealand Stock Exchange, than there are cheers that homegrown Kiwi billionaire Graeme Hart is to relist Goodman Fielder.

Mr Hubbard's decision – was a severe disappointment to thousands of investors who had asked brokers for shares.

In contrast, brokers say that so far there has been a lukewarm response from Kiwi investors for Mr Hart's float.

The comparatively poor New Zealand response has forced the media-shy Aucklander to make himself available to the odd reporter to talk up the prospects for the company. This followed a sceptical response from some Kiwi institutions and investment advisers.

It'll be a pity if Mr Hart and his management team don't get a lot of Kiwi support, because Goodman Fielder is one of our most important companies, and the offer represents an opportunity for ordinary investors to build a significant stake in it.

– However, the float has drawn some negative responses from institutional and other large investors on both sides of the Tasman, though one needs to be sceptical. It is not unusual for them to talk down a float at this early stage and say that they aren't keen to invest in order to try to get the price down. Their game is to get the shares as cheaply as possible. Institutions aren't always right either: many ignored both the Pumpkin Patch and Promina floats, and had to pick up shares later at higher prices.

At a broker-investment briefing in Wellington on Thursday, Tim Hardman, one of Mr Hart's right-hand men at Rank, set out to contradict the idea that Goodman Fielder was a low-growth business, and one in which Rank had already extracted most of the cost savings and benefits from merging disparate businesses.

Peter Margin, the newly appointed managing director, hammered the message that the company was now a fundamentally different one, and included many big-name dairy-food brands in New Zealand. He traced the earnings improvements seen under Rank.

Management said there was room for further efficiency gains and other improvements in Australia, less so in New Zealand. However, the managing director retail New Zealand, Alison Taylor, said possible savings in bringing together the dairy business with other operations could be nearer $25 million than the $10 million previously suggested.

People spoken to after the briefing seemed to be impressed by the new management and felt they would be buying into a good cashflow business with solid defensive characteristics. Even if New Zealand suffers a hard economic landing, people still need to eat, making Goodman Fielder a good defensive stock with predictable earnings.

For the normal family, Goodman Fielder is difficult to ignore. It is the country's biggest supplier of loaf bread, edible oils, flour and prepackaged small goods, and second largest in fresh milk. In Australia it is No 1 in loaf bread, spreads, dressings, bottled sauces, cooking oils and cake mix.

People who knock the issue also ignore the fact that Mr Hart and his team want to stay involved, and retain a 20 to 30 per cent stake. They could have saved themselves a lot of bother and expense if they had sold out to private investment firms Bain Capital and Pacific Equity Partners (PEP), who had of

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]


An E update getting lots now with Direct falling over themselves about what they and where written and saying Sorry,, with some other lady chasing them too.. if this is how the IPO going its going to be a rough Road.. [8D]

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]


An E update getting lots now with Direct falling over themselves about what they and where written and saying Sorry,, with some other lady chasing them too.. if this is how the IPO going its going to be a rough Road.. [8D]


I don't understand what you are trying to say!

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]


An E update getting lots now

What? Sex? Rain? Goodman F shares? Emails? ...

[?]

[Futurz]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]


An E update getting lots now with Direct falling over themselves about what they and where written and saying Sorry,, with some other lady chasing them too.. if this is how the IPO going its going to be a rough Road.. [8D]


I don't understand what you are trying to say!


Does anyone ever understand what he is saying? Obviously not a fan of Direct, Goodman Fielder, or the English language ;)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Futurz


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

BET all Direct customers by now have received an "E" begging you to BUY shares .. [8D]


An E update getting lots now with Direct falling over themselves about what they and where written and saying Sorry,, with some other lady chasing them too.. if this is how the IPO going its going to be a rough Road.. [8D]


I don't understand what you are trying to say!


Does anyone ever understand what he is saying? Obviously not a fan of Direct, Goodman Fielder, or the English language ;)


IF you dont understand then you have not received any "E"s from DIRECT BROKERS then I dont have to WORRY.. [8D]

[rmbbrave]

ASB Securities has this on their home page....

"Goodman Fielder Initial Public Offer
The retail offer has now opened and will be closing on Friday, 9 December 2005. If you are interested in investing in this IPO, please call us immediately on 0800 ASB SEC (0800 272 732) and press option 2.
We need to have received your application by Wednesday, 7 December in order to process your application prior to the closing date."

.... not exactly begging for buyers but it seems if you want them you can have 'em - not a good sign for a big rise on listing day.

[JAMP]

quote:I have yet to see any articles saying that the SP is going to go up 10-20% on the first day. And if the SP isn't going to go up what is the point of buying at IPO. It is better to wait until later - unless I see something that changes my mind that's what I will be doing.rmbbrave, I believe there is one primary reason to be in this share early...exchange rate.

I believe the shareprice for GFF will be predominantly determined by our western neighbours. Arbitrage players will most likely ensure that the NZX (NZD) price for GFF shares is not permitted to lag the equivalent ASX (AUD) price for GFF shares.

Unless I am reading the prospects for the NZDAUD cross-rate incorrectly, a weakening against the AUD over the next six to twelve months should prop/strengthen the NZX (NZD) shareprice of GFF quite nicely. This is my primary reason for trying to be in on this IPO from day one.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA LPL MCH MVN NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT SAT
Unlisted: BRK

[rmbbrave]

Goodman Fielder: a buy with risks
30 November 2005

By BRUCE MCKAY
The initial public offering of Goodman Fielder is going to be promoted heavily by brokers as the issue investors should be buying in 2005, even though the year has only a few weeks to run.


Some early commentary from brokers has focused on the company's numerous household brand names as a reason for investors to buy stock in the offering.

The logic to this is that Goodman Fielder produces a number of staple food items that will be in just about everyone's cupboards; bread, milk, spreads and so on.

In this sense, Goodman Fielder is a defensive stock, in some ways like an infrastructure company. People need its products or something similar.

However, a recommendation based on just the fact that the company produces a range of basic foods items doesn't make it a raging buy.

Goodman Fielder is offering a gross yield of up to 8.8 per cent at issue, though this does depend on the final issue price, determined via an institutional book build. The yield is certainly attractive.

New Zealand investors will be able to get imputation credits attached to their dividends, meaning that there is no loss of value from investing in an essentially Australian company.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThere have been some comments about Goodman Fielder being the most important public offering for New Zealand for 2005. That might be stretching things. It is certainly a large offering, but a lot will depend on the demand for stock from Australian investors.

New Zealand investors may want to participate but the issue is being managed by an Australian broking house which will first and foremost be looking after its own clients. Everyone else will have to make do with what they can get.

In the hype around the float of Goodman Fielder, it still pays to have read through the prospectus. At 340 pages it's one of the largest offering documents in recent times.

There is nothing special about the proposed pricing of the issue: it is hardly priced to go, but neither is it expensive. The idea seems to be that with the outlook for the investment markets at best cloudy, brokers will be wanting to put their clients into a solid defensive stock.

Fear and greed rather than investment analysis would seem to be the order of the day.

One issue with Goodman Fielder is that, while its products are in everyone's cupboards, it has only a few customers. Goodman Fielder sells to the supermarket chains.

The number of chains in Australia and New Zealand has been falling because of industry consolidation; New Zealand has only two chains, in Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia. The situation in Australia has also tightened with Foodlands being broken up.

Supermarket chains have forced a number of suppliers during the past few years to cut prices to boost their own margins. Supermarkets operate on very thin margins and recent industry consolidation is evidence that there is still a grab to find margin from every possible source.

Power in the relationship between food suppliers and supermarkets is firmly sitting with the supermarkets, given their control of access to the final consumer.

If a supermarket can't strike the right deal, from its perspective, then a supplier is likely to find its shelf space cut or downgraded (eye level to bottom shelf) and its payment terms worsen. Without sufficient shelf space it is hard for a supplier to sell its products.

Goodman Fielder is in the fortunate position of having some leading brands. However, it would be a grave mistake to think the company can rest on its laurels. The fast-moving consumer goods sector is a tough place to operate in.

Investors who take time to read the financial forecasts in the prospectus will find a table outlining the impact on net profit from changes in various items.

Currency has minimal impact even though the company operates in two countries and has reasonable exposure to the US dollar.

The largest impact on profitability comes from changes in selling prices

[JAMP]

rmbbrave, I can only assume that the article you quoted was quoted to highlight the fact that he deems the exchange rate to be neutral for this stock.

That is probably correct for the business itself. I still believe the potential exists for an exchange rate gain between the GFF shares listed on the NZX versus those on the ASX during 2006.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA GFF LPL MCH MVN NWF NWFOA NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT SAT
Unlisted: BRK

[rmbbrave]

Goodman IPO should come in around A$1.90 a share

13.12.05 4.00pm


Australian food group Goodman Fielder's initial public offering (IPO) is expected to be priced above A$1.90 ($2.03) per share and to raise about A$2 billion, a person familiar with the sale said today.

"The book is well covered at A$1.90 per share, so it is going to price north of that," the source said.

"We haven't formally raised the floor, but the message we have given to the market is that we are well covered at A$1.90 and it will be priced upwards of that," he added.

Food group Burns, Philp & Co had offered to sell up to 1.06 billion shares in Goodman between A$1.85 and A$2.00 per shares, targeting up to A$2.1 billion.

The offer opened late on Monday and is scheduled to close on Wednesday.

"The international demand has been particularly strong and last night some of the domestic institutions came in. The road show (for domestic institutions) doesn't end until lunchtime today," the source said.

Last month Burns Philp rejected an offer from a private equity consortium led by US-based Bain Capital Partners, choosing instead to proceed with the IPO.

"My guess is that BPC's stake will be closer to 20 per cent than 30 per cent. The demand is outstanding, and the total shares offered will be close to the upper limit if not all of it," the source said.

The offer is being managed by Credit Suisse First Boston, UBS and Macquarie Bank.

Goodman's offer comes after last week's A$1.4 billion offer from SP AusNet, which was sold at the lower end of the price band. Meanwhile, Spark Infrastructure Fund launched the institutional offer late on Monday, a day ahead of schedule, and is targeting to raise up to A$1.8 billion.

A successful completion of the three offers would take the total Australian IPO tally in 2005 to $9.4 billion. The usually quiet Christmas season has seen active fund raising and sell-downs this year.

- REUTERS

[Snow Leopard]

So announcement this morning says IPO price is NZ$2.13 (A$2.00) and they are flogging off 80%.

Also the bun fight starts at 2pm on Monday.

[Bling_Bling]

Abit like the prospectus of most IPOs Bling buys, I am too lazy to read it.

The question is, where is the growth coming from?

[rmbbrave]

Based on the final price, Goodman will have a market capitalisation of $A2.65 billion and, subject to meeting S&P/ASX index inclusion criteria, will be included in the S&P/ASX 100 share index and the NZSX-50 index, making it the largest publicly listed food company in Australia andNew Zealand.

The company said it expected to declare a final dividend for shareholders 2005/6 year of A5.5 cents per share (for the half year period), increasing to 13.5 cents per share in fiscal 2007.

These forecast dividends represent an annualised yield of 5.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent respectively, based on the final share price.

[rmbbrave]

The tide appears to have turned on Goodman, but it is far too late. This is the first optimistic article I have seen.


Investors pile into Goodman Fielder

15.12.05
By Richard Inder


Graeme Hart's Burns Philp has elected to sell the maximum number of shares in Goodman Fielder after demand for the shortly-to-be-floated transtasman food giant's stock exceeded expectations.

Burns Philp, 54 per cent owned by Hart, will this morning disclose it will hold just 20 per cent of Goodman, which it is spinning on to the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges, sources close to the deal say.

It had said in the float prospectus it would keep between 20 per cent and 40 per cent of the shares.

The sources said Goodman's shares would be sold to investors at A$2 a share, giving it a market value of A$2.65 billion. This compares with the range of A$1.85 to A$2 set out in the prospectus.

Gross proceeds from the float will amount to as much as A$2.12 billion.

The banks leading the offer, Credit Suisse First Boston, Macquarie Bank and UBS, yesterday closed the offer to institutional shareholders four hours early. Sources said demand at A$2 was sufficient to sell twice the available shares.

The high price and demand should ensure a strong start to trading.

The shares are due to trade in Australia and New Zealand on a conditional basis next week.

Unconditional trading is due to start on December 22 in New Zealand and December 28 in Australia.

Observers say the high price may reflect demand from funds outside New Zealand and Australia.

Since the float's launch last month, the banks have marketed the shares on four continents to as many as 200 separate institutions. More than 60,000 prospectuses and investment statements have been downloaded from the Goodman website.

"There has been good demand for the shares," a source said.

The price is also in stark contrast to talk from New Zealand investors as Hart launched the float of the company, which owns the Meadow Fresh, Tararua, Molenberg, and Kiwi bacon brands in New Zealand.

Several said the price was too high as most of the company's brands were mature and low-growth exposure.

Its strong reliance on staple products such as bread and milk made the company vulnerable to supermarkets increasing sales of their own brands. Supermarkets in New Zealand do not brand as many products as their counterparts overseas.

The lukewarm reception infuriated Hart. He told the Business Herald local fund managers sceptical about the Goodman float were "ill-informed".

Goodman would offer an investment proposition that was scarce in New Zealand - secure and stable long-term earnings, which should be a staple of most portfolios.

However, Tower New Zealand equities manager Wayne Stechman is sticking to his guns.

"The price is a bit high for us. There is a potential for it to list quite strongly. But we believe other things offer better value."

Burns Philp shares were last night trading up A3c at A$1.13.

[JAMP]

Roll on Monday, and allocation confirmation.

Regards JAMP
NZX: AIA GFF LPL MCH MVN NWF NWFOA NZO NZOOD PPG RBD SAN SKX SPN
NZAX: CVT SAT
Unlisted: BRK

[Snow Leopard]

Apparently retail investors will have the smaller of the number of shares they applied for or 1000 shares.

[whatsup]

What is the code ?

[Sky Tower]

The NZX code for Goodman Fielder is GFF

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Apparently retail investors will have the smaller of the number of shares they applied for or 1000 shares.


1000 shares max!

What a joke!

Their value will be about $2000 and it would cost at least $30 to sell them, that's brokerage of 1.5%.

I was beginning to have some regrets about not buying shares in the IPO as it now seems the SP will rise opening day.

But if 1000 is all you can get them I'm glad I didn't bother.

[BRICKS]

SELLING @ $AU2.08 approx.. [8D]

[Sky Tower]

Selling in NZ for $2.21

From NBNZ site:
2:29:47 p.m. 2.2100 75,000 $165,750.00
2:29:40 p.m. 2.2200 46,719 $103,716.20
2:28:29 p.m. 2.2200 3,281 $7,283.82
2:26:54 p.m. 2.2200 2,719 $6,036.18
2:26:31 p.m. 2.2200 2,281 $5,063.82
2:26:31 p.m. 2.2200 21,483 $47,692.26
2:25:38 p.m. 2.2250 250,000 $556,250.00

[rmbbrave]

Westpac emerges as major Goodman shareholder

19.12.05 1.00pm


Westpac Custodian Nominees has emerged as the largest shareholder in the listing of Australasian food giant Goodman Fielder.

In a pre-float disclosure released to the New Zealand Stock Exchange this morning, Westpac - which provides clearing, settlement and safe keeping services to a large range of international clients, including the Westpac Financial Services group - tops the indicative list of top 20 shareholders with 354 million shares, or 26.75 per cent.

Westpac is closely followed by the Graeme Hart-controlled Burns Philp, which sold down its stake to 20 per cent in the IPO.

Rounding out the top five are JP Morgan, with 11.3 per cent, National Nominees Ltd, with 7.46 per cent, and UBS Nominees Ltd, with 1.79 per cent.

Sources close to the IPO have previously said there was aggressive scaling back of allocations for institutions following strong demand in Asia, Europe and the United States.

The resurrected food group is expected to be well received when it lists on the New Zealand and Australian stock exchanges at 2pm today.

Fund manager John Norling of Alliance Capital expected the listing to go well, although the fact that Australia has had to absorb A$7 billion ($7.61 billion) of IPOs this quarter may take the edge off demand.

Because local institutions were cool on the issue, they may be underweight and have to buy stock to match the weighting Goodman will have in the NZSX-50 capital index.

With a market capitalisation of A$2.65 billion, the company will have a 2 per cent weighting in the NZX top 50 index and will be ranked the 13th largest stock. It will also be in Australia's main index, the S&P/ASX.

Meanwhile, Goodman said in its pre-quotation statement that retail investors will get a maximum of 1000 shares, no matter how many they sought.

The trans-Tasman food giant said an application for the minimum amount allowed, $2000, would result in an investor being allocated 937 shares.

Those seeking to spend $2500 or more would get 1000 shares, worth $2130 at the IPO price of $2.13 per share.

Goodman's New Zealand brands include Edmonds, Kiwi, Huttons, Vogel's, Meadow Fresh, Tararua, Anchor butter, Irvines, Champion and Molenberg.

In Australia, it sells Wonder White, Mighty Soft, Vogel's, and Helga's breads, Meadow Lea margarine and Pampas pastry.

Today's listing will mark the return of Goodman to the Australian and New Zealand exchanges after the once underperforming company was taken over by Burns Philp in 2003 and transformed through a cost-cutting programme.

- NZPA

[lambton]

Trading $2.03 on ASX. A roaring success? Yeah right.

[marcus_milo]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Apparently retail investors will have the smaller of the number of shares they applied for or 1000 shares.


1000 shares max!

What a joke!

Their value will be about $2000 and it would cost at least $30 to sell them, that's brokerage of 1.5%.

I was beginning to have some regrets about not buying shares in the IPO as it now seems the SP will rise opening day.

But if 1000 is all you can get them I'm glad I didn't bother.


Then you should have got a firm allocation from your broker ;)

[lambton]

Sell side on ASX looking very ominous - stags bolting for the door before the blood bath perhaps. Might get a few much cheaper than the IPO price after all.

[PointyHat]

Has anyone been allocated GFF shares by ASB Securities and then find they do not have them?
I was allotted 7024, confirmed by ASB 19th and again 28th December 2005. I only received 1000 package however, with a new Common Shareholder # and a with a new FIN thru the public offer with my balnce $ returned!! This was notified by post on the 24th December!!

Has anyone else experienced this or similar?

ASB are sorting it out but their computer is down. Woe!
Any advise?

[Snow Leopard]

PointyHat if you goto http://www.nzx.com/psh/PS301P.shtml you can check your holding of FASTER registered securities.
It seems you now have two CSN's
So if you enter your new Shareholder Number and GFF it should come with 1000.
Enter your existing SN and GFF and see what it reckons.

[PointyHat]

Thanks for that Paper Tiger, I hold 1000, so where did my ASB allocation of 7024 end up? who got them instead of me. Why did my ASB application form, (with my previous CSN on it) go into the public offer? I await ASB's expalnation.

[PointyHat]

ASB have provided today the balance of my allocation mentioned above, good of them EH?

[Curly]

Bit of action on GFF today. Anybody know if somethings up? No Viagra jokes!!!!

[Bling_Bling]

$NZ dollar down, causing some punters to buy export stocks.

[Snow Leopard]

This article from the Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10365234) may provide the answer.

regards

Paper Tiger

[Bling_Bling]

Thats a weak article. Another great investigative reporting by a great paper ... LOL. They should get an award. :D

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Thats a weak article. Another great investigative reporting by a great paper ... LOL. They should get an award. :D

But it is much better than any of your posts [}:)]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

Thats a weak article. Another great investigative reporting by a great paper ... LOL. They should get an award. :D

But it is much better than any of your posts [}:)]


ARe you suggesting I shold be a reporter for the newspaper? :D

[Yossarian]

and another 12c today...

[8D]

[Curly]

Thanks guys for your input. Nice to have one going north for a change. I guess it still looks cheap to USA players.

[Yossarian]

down 12% or so in the last couple of weeks - what's going on here? Are there any rumours afoot? Is this related to Hart's sale of Uncle Toby?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Yossarian

down 12% or so in the last couple of weeks - what's going on here? Are there any rumours afoot? Is this related to Hart's sale of Uncle Toby?
a variation on selling your own grandmother?

[rmbbrave]

Hart waves his wand again
10 September 2006

By TERRY HALL
Graeme Hart is continuing to work his magic at Goodman Fielder. In typical fashion, his management team is extracting significant efficiencies from the food giant that, before he took it over in June 2003, was a lumbering, uninspiring investment going nowhere.


The shares rebounded strongly after the latest result which was much better than Australian analysts had predicted. Most had forecast the group would fail to meet earnings forecasts in the prospectus issued last November because it was known management faced difficulties, including a tougher environment in Australia and New Zealand, higher commodity prices, dearer fuel and adverse currency movements, notably the fall in the Kiwi versus Aussie dollar.

In the event net profit after tax was 4.5% better than forecast at A$194.9 million. Management lifted profits in all but one division. This was seen as highly commendable as the company, the biggest food group in Australasia, operates in mature industries with tight margins.

Some brokers and many institutions were lukewarm about Goodman Fielder when Hart refloated it on the market last December, feeling he had probably extracted all the goodies from the company. One of the country's biggest brokers refused to take shares in the float for its clients, and some fund managers also declined to buy shares.

They have been proved wrong.

By happy circumstance the shares were issued in December when the New Zealand/Australian cross rate was at an eight-year high about 95c. This meant the shares, which were issued at $A2 in Australia, cost Kiwi investors only $2.13.

The shares were trading in New Zealand at $2.65 on Tuesday, the sort of gain that is not to be sniffed at in today's lacklustre market. However the main market for the stock remains in Australia, and, like all dual listed shares, it will remain vulnerable to exchange rate movements. Tuesday's gain was helped by a weakening in the Kiwi-Aussie exchange rate.

In Australia, the shares jumped A32c after the profit announcement, encouraged by management reassurance they expect to meet the next target in the prospectus net profit after tax of $A223.9m this financial year - in spite of a likely weaker Kiwi dollar.

Many Australian analysts had expected a poor result in the past year and the stock had fallen to $A1.90.

Some, fairly predictably, had focused on problems in New Zealand, where the company has 40% of its business. Of particular concern was the fall in the Kiwi-Aussie rate from A95c in December to about A80c, which had been expected to cut into reported profits.

Looking ahead, analysts say management seems confident it can deal with problems in New Zealand. This includes the tough game being played by Woolworths Australia subsidiary Progressive Enterprises which is forcing down prices to suppliers.

It has recently switched to buying its house branded milk from Fonterra to third player, Independent Dairy Products. While this doesn't affect Goodman Fielder directly, it could have long-term consequences as Goodman Fielder processes Fonterra's retail milk in the South Island. There is also concern that rival Foodstuffs also could move its South Island contract to Independent Dairy Products.

Of greater importance is the performance of the Australian baking division, which lifted profits sharply in the past year. The company improved its debt position by $A260m, and says it is on track to meet the synergy benefits discussed in the prospectus.

Hart, and his team, have a lot to prove with Goodman Fielder. The negative reaction to the float from some market participants - but by no means all - may have been a factor in his decision to launch the takeover bid for Burns Philp and delist it. This move, if successful, is likely to leave Goodman Fielder as the only way Hart fans can continue to coat tail their hero through a publicly listed float.

Ultimately, however, he will probably sell the Goodman Fielder stake as well so it is in his interests that it

[jke_brown]

I eat GFF brand(s) cheese bread and yogurt from the local shop every day. Just finished reading GFF annual report, I hold a small quantity of GFF.

Pros
Strong cash flow businesses operating in mature market.
Strong band names in NZ and AUS, harder for a competitor to get in and wipe out GFF market share. Products cover every meal, including breakfast, lunch, dinner.
Dual listed

Cons
Large market cap 2.8 billion.
Recent movement in flour price affecting the margin on the bread.
Company seems to be in bit of debt.
Company pays out nearly 80 per cent of its earnings as a dividend, little capital is retained for growth opportunities.

2004 $2.2billion
2005 $2.3billion
2006 $2.3billion

EBIT 360million
NPAT 194.9million
EPS 14.7c
Dividend 5.5c

Jackie

[Yossarian]

what's going on today?

[Yossarian]

may be about to hit $3 for the first time...

a lucrative if boring investment. Up 39% since float.

[Grand Uber]

Has anyone else been looking at purchasing GFF recently?

I am trying to setup a long term portfolio which will have dividends reinvested and I figure at the current price (or the price after the current market correction plays out) they are a good long term buy.

As said above they are a pretty boring stock, but for capital protection, and a good return by conservative standards I think they will prove to be a winner

Anyone got any views on where they are heading?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Grand Uber why did HART float it off (he is NZ richest man)

[Grand Uber]

Because he had already sold off all the valueable assets?

hmm, good point

[macduffy]

Grand Uber why did HART float it off (he is NZ richest man)

Yes, Possum, he's not stupid!

I hold a few GFF from the IPO but seriously thinking about selling them for something with a better future.
Although management has done a pretty good job IMO, I don't see them ever being able to re-capture the premiums that their brands once commanded. The big supermarkets seem to have them over a barrel with their trend to housebrands and control of outlet space. The likes of GFF will continue to manufacture for Woolies, Coles etc but their margins will continue to contract.
Just IMO.

[winner69]

Grand Uber why did HART float it off (he is NZ richest man)


Hart (or Burns Philp) kept 20% of GFF at the IPO in Dec 05 (A$2.1 billion float) but sold that after escrow period of 2 years was up for $600m in 2007 (better the 2nd time around eh)

But I don't think even Hart made much out of Goodman Fielder in the 2 years he owned it

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Winner 69 But I did very nicely out Burns Philp which was Hart's original ownership vehicle for Goodman Fielder & I would expect Hart did even better.

[BRICKS]

WELL long tine NO word on this subject untill this week to say they will take a 16 Million hit on NZ tax changes but
not to worry they say all is getting better and it mite be is it worth a punt,, one thing about it is that people dont
stop EATING..

[BRICKS]

WELL long tine NO word on this subject untill this week to say they will take a 16 Million hit on NZ tax changes but
not to worry they say all is getting better and it mite be is it worth a punt,, one thing about it is that people dont
stop EATING..

IT has been interesting how litte interest in a large NZ company and its in food bought at the super market every day a low to nil turnovrer per day but more in AU the company has had time to
mature a litte in the last year so Watch & SEE..

[macduffy]

GFF's had a nice rally since about mid August, more noticeable on ASX charts than NZ because of higher turnover.

Can't see any particular reason, perhaps they were just oversold previously.

[winner69]

First few pages of this thread says it all ... iconic company picked up by Mums and Dads at A$2..00

And now a leaderless monster not knowing what to do as times gets tough ... and falling profits ..... a shareprice about half the IPO price ,,,,,and now The Australian saying ripe for a takeover to put it out of it misery

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/private-equity-may-size-up-goodman-fielder-for-acquisition/story-fn4xq4cj-1226046916326

Didn't Mr Hart do well

[winner69]

Recession proof they said ... everybody needs flour and bread and stuff .... just goes to show the leadership they have had over the years

I heard a story the other day about how they were pissed off with a competitor reducing prices and undercutting them ... yep go out and spend heaps on a consultant to work out why .... and then having the consultant to tell them that the competitor was only cutting prices in response to GFF price reductions .... ha ha .... close to the market was this great company ... yeah right

speculation usually is profitable .... where's there smoke and all that sort of stuff .... might be a worth a punt

[Gonzo]

I had this dog some time ago. Has to be a buy at forward PE of 6.4, or are there fishhooks not apparent

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Gonzo If it was ever going to be good in the near future G Hart would have kept it. Instead it was pillaged & floated to the Mugs