PDA

View Full Version : MOL Moly Mines Ltd



stolwyk
29-09-2005, 04:25 PM
MOL--MOLY MINES LTD: http://www.molymines.com/

Chart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=AU%3AMOL&time=&freq=

Business: A 281 mill tonnes Molybdenum Deposit (Spinifex Ridge) and 3 other moly prospects in NSW: Mt Pleasant has not been drilled, while some drilling was done on the Glen Eden and Mt Tennyson deposits. MOL also has some GOLD projects at Dargues Reef.


1. MOLYBDENUM.
15 Sept 2005: SPINIFEX RIDGE: PRESENTATION: http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MOL&E=ASX&N=299254

Suggest one reads pages 3, 20-22. These deal with resources and calculations. The MOLYBDENUM price is rising and is now $US 34/lb. Based on resource of 281 mill tonnes @ 0.07% MO (0.04% cutoff), the Moly resource is about 435 mill lbs or the equivalent of 32.15 ounces of GOLD (AU=$US460/ounce).

The CU component is 0.1% or 281,000 tonnes or based on $US1.60/lb, the equivalent is 2.15 mill ounces of Gold. This single heap is worth in total 34.3 mill ounces or based on Gold=$US460 and $A=0.77, a total sum of $A20.49 Bill ($A 20490,909090).

MOL has 29.6 mill shares, 1.47 mill year 2007 options, 1.07 mill year 2008 options and 13.4 mill 2009 year, a total of 15.87 mill options, all unlisted. Fully Diluted: 45.54 mill . Note that Production is supposed to begin on 1 June 2007, so all these options will be exercised after the start-up. However, it is best to present the final data in undiluted and diluted forms.

UNDILUTED: The share price is $A1.33, so the Market Cap is 29.6 mill *$A1.33 or $A39.368 mill or per $A1 Market Cap., one has a InSutu resource worth about $A20.49 Bill / 39.368 mill or $A520, a high number IMHO. Per Share: $A692.

DILUTED: Per share, one gets an InSitu resource value of 20490.9 mill / 45.55 mill or $450, another nice number. Of course, there will be a Placement prior to the Capital Construction which is between $350-$400 mill at present. MOL has $17.6 mill cash at the moment (60 cents/share).

Preliminary Feasibility Study: December 2005 (Page 12 of PRESENTATION).


2. GOLD
At Darques Reef and other places: See page 27 of PRESENTATION.


Subject to audit,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

NB: I did a study of Moly companies. MOL (Australia) and ADANQ Moly Corp (Canada) were front runners. Both could start producing about 1 June 2007.

However, ADANAC had 220 mill lbs of Moly @ 0.058% while MOL had twice the metal at 435 mill lbs @ 0.07%; both with 0.04% cut-off. ADANAC's share price is CAN75 cents or $A84 cents while MOL is $A1.33.
ADANAC has about 40 mill shares and a few options.
It was decided to give priority to MOL. It has Gold projects as well.

stolwyk
29-09-2005, 04:33 PM
21 Sept. 2005:

RESER: MOLYBDENUM, THE BIG SECRET:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/reser092205.html

29-09-2005, 05:57 PM
Is this going to be another monologue Gerry

stolwyk
29-09-2005, 06:49 PM
From my first post:

"However, ADANAC had 220 mill lbs of Moly @ 0.058% while MOL had twice the metal at 435 mill lbs @ 0.07%; both with 0.04% cut-off. ADANAC's share price is CAN75 cents or $A84 cents while MOL is $A1.33.
ADANAC has about 40 mill shares and a few options".

1. Let us assume that for this exercise, the equivalent current shares of MOL are about 35 mill (The year 2009 options are much later than June 2007). MOL also has nearly twice the Adanac's Moly metal and with a bigger Moly content.

So, the MOL's share price ought to be: 40/35*435/220*0.07/0.058*A84 cents or $A2.29 against the current $1.33. However, it ought to be cheaper to remove ore with a higher Moly content, such as MOL has.

The Strip ratio of MOL<1:1, a very low ratio. Adanac's strip ratio is not available.
Comparing Locations and access to power, I would prefer MOL. Gas is available to MOL while ADANAC will mainly run Diesel Generators.

Summarizing, if MOL were to be listed at the TSX, then it may well be priced higher, IMHO.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Moonshine
29-09-2005, 07:48 PM
G'day Gerry,

Thanks for your figures and research on this one.

I am wondering... there are several other stocks where you have posted similar style analysis...

Have you bought into MOL yet (and other companies for which you post in a similar style to this one)... or are you just sleeping on the research at this stage?

Cheers,

Moonshine

tracker
29-09-2005, 07:58 PM
i would guess well set, ready to post non stop on it
lol
tracker

stolwyk
29-09-2005, 08:22 PM
Thanks Moonshine, I hold MOL.

Gerry

srotherh
29-09-2005, 09:53 PM
Jerry
Keep posting and ignore the losers who I imagine are pissed you are beating them in the Aussie share picking comp,actually I notice one does not have the balls to even enter.
I appreciate your research ,but if I did not why would I waste my time reading your threads.
Surely thats not too hard for them to figure.

stolwyk
29-09-2005, 10:31 PM
Thanks Srotherh,

It is time consuming preparing this research.

Somehow, this stock escaped the attention of both H/Copper and this site but I can see merit in holding it.

Others may think differently; they are entitled to their opinion.


Gerry
BTW, Gold will feature strongly in the Competition.

tracker
30-09-2005, 03:35 AM
hey srotherh,
I assume re the comp, that you are talking about me
Over the last 6 months , maybe a little more, I have changed my trading style and as a result of this I did not enter the comp, as I was purely daytrading, and definately NOT looking at a share more than say for 20 minutes (that would have been a long term trade lol), besides which as good as it is for interest value, it does not truely reflect ones pocket book, as many many of those trades submitted by entrants have been long stopped out or profit taken,
hope this helps
I am not saying MOL has no worth, BUT to recommend gold shaes at this stage of the day seems a little too scarey for me, seems to me that there is not that much room to move especially with all that gold has done etc etc
PS I actually dont own a pair anyway

have a great day
tracker

stolwyk
30-09-2005, 10:10 AM
Of course, the Gold component of MOL is not great at this stage and was not included in the calculations. It is some $A700 mill worth in Situ while the Moly heap is worth about $A20.5 Bill. with cutoff 0.04%.

Page 3 of Presentation:
"MOL has the potential to supply 5% of world moly for 20+ years"

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Mick100
30-09-2005, 04:56 PM
I don't claim to know much about molly Gerry but the grade of .07%(0.7kg/TON or roughly 1.5 lb/ton) looks low. Molly is trading at about $30/lb isn't it. My figures are only gestimates but if they are close then this deposit is uneconomical at current prices.
I like to look at the value of metal per ton to compare the different miners. If it is too low then mining costs exceed metal value.
How do other molly deposits stack up against this one?
Haven't done much research on molly as yet but if the run-up in price is anything to go on we should all be interested in molly.
,

stolwyk
30-09-2005, 07:08 PM
The grade is 0.07%/tonne or 1.54 lbs/tonne. However, they would start with a higher grade say 0.12%.

At the moment, MO is about $US2.50 more than Uranium and PDN has about 1.58lbs/tonne in their bigger African deposit. PDN has quite a lot of shares.

Based on MO=$US34/lbs, a tonne is worth about $A70. A lot is open cut of course.

(I am afraid you need to get used to lower grades; you had a problem with TYC, remember?). Don't be surprised that they could run this MO deposit at a 35% or higher IRR: my raw data points into that direction. We'll know more soon, another reason why I bought MOL.

I have come across a lot of porphyry deposits and that increases the level of knowledge. One needs to know something about minimum levels.

Say, you have 2 deposits, one with gold, the other a porphyry system with say 3 metals but the total value is the same as that of the gold project.

Where this differs is that I could use say a $US400 mill Plant for the Gold project but need a $US1000 mill Plant for the Porphyry project. (Of coure the Metallurgical Flowsheet will tell you that your extraction of the various metals will result in a somewhat less recovery than in the case of Gold, only).

So, the much more massive Plant has far more machinery to extract the lower values of the metals.

Obviously, one needs massive projects. NCM's Telfer is a massive porphyry system. (Still, NCM's Gold Equiv is about 80 mill ounces, while the real big one, NDM has 227 mill ounces of gold Equivalent).

I invested in Northern Dynasty(NDM) some time ago; this is the biggest Porphyry system in the world; I calculated about 227 mill ounces Gold Equivalent. It requires a $CAN1800 mill Plant (Includes all Mining machinery), so you can see what expenditure it comes too.

Yet, according to a Research Report, the IRR could be 35.3% (Anything over 20% is very good). This Report refers to the $CAN 1800 mill Plant.

Suggest you read this:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20597&whichpage=2&SearchTerms=NDM

and this section gives you an idea of the grades:

"It is extremely significant that the Pebble deposit contains a higher grade measured and indicated resource of 569 million tonnes grading 0.50 grams gold per tonne, 0.46% copper, and 0.021% molybdenum, or 0.88% copper-equivalent".

That grade compares to 0.43% copper equivalent presently being mined at Teck Cominco’s Highland Valley mine. That operation in British Columbia is comparable to Pebble and generated $431 million of operating profit last year"
_________________

NDM's Pebble Deposit:
http://www.northerndynastyminerals.com/ndm/Home.asp

One has to get used to it.


Cheers,

Gerry

stolwyk
30-09-2005, 07:25 PM
A follow up from Ken RESER:


MOLYBDENUM...THE BIG SECRET
by Ken Reser
September 29, 2005


http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0929b.html

Mick100
30-09-2005, 08:23 PM
I'm not trying to wind you up Gerry
I prefer the smaller high grade deposits while you go for the much larger lower grade deposits.

I'm weary of the rapidly increasing costs of mining, espesially low grade open pit mines such as LHG. I hope that neither of us are on the wrong track.

,

stolwyk
30-09-2005, 09:11 PM
Mick,

There is of course no need to buy any stocks I write about. As my Disclaimer says it is up to the individual.

I am keen on high grade of course, the costs are lower per tonne.

I have a mixture of Golds: The Canadians, the Aussies which are smaller: BDG, AAM, MOE.

The big Silvers: BSG and the over 300 mill ounces Canadian company, IMR (IMA).

When I bought the Canadians, these were cheaper than the Aussies because of much lower costs. (Many Aussies have heavy costs). The Canadian dollar is a good one as well and has risen quite a bit. Some hint it will be a hot currency soon because of Canada's resources.


Cheers,

Gerry

stolwyk
01-10-2005, 11:15 AM
FINANCING THE SPINIFEX MOLY PROJECT.

If the project is big enough and has strategic metals, then I can't see any problems.

China would be an eager client, I think.

The PRESENTATION mentions that the Moly Project SPINIFEX can supply 5% of the World Demand for at least 20 years. That would attract the Chinese who need big and continuous supplies.

And it would'nt be the only eager client IMHO. Others could be India, the US or Europe.

So, MOL could be in a very advantageous position and could if it wished, negotiate a position which required minimal outlays at the beginning (Anything owing to be paid from profits) thereby conserving its Share Capital as HRR is doing.

It is also possible that an accepted party would like some shares as well and this would bring in cash when it is needed in say June-Sept 2006.

A research paper was aiming at about $A350-$A400 mill for the plant. Add to that all mining machinery and other costs and one could be looking at say $A430 mill perhaps in today's dollars.

That reads like big money but if so needed, Bank Finance ought to be available and MOL can also sell their Gold project, if it had to.

Of course a BFS will be needed first.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

01-10-2005, 03:50 PM
Still on your monologue Gerry or do you think it is a dialogue now your mate Mick100 has made a few posts or just plain Gerry Ramping of highly speculative stocks as usual.

pago
03-10-2005, 09:22 PM
hi gerry,the price of molybdenum certainly has increased over the years.according to the lme site,prices for nickel in 2001 $2.70/lb to $7.27/lb today,whereas molybdenum in 2001 $2.36/lb to $38.50 today.these are ave. ann. prices,not up to the minute,mol is prob. about $34/lb now.gerry my question in regard to moly mines ltd is how to compare them with current or near producers,cost of mining/grades of ore is relevant.do you know of any good comparisions? cheers pago.

stolwyk
03-10-2005, 10:46 PM
A lot of info can be found here:

http://www.infomine.com/commodities/molybdenum.asp

stolwyk
04-10-2005, 01:24 PM
Gold Drilling success continues at Dargues Reef

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MOL&E=ASX&N=300976

stolwyk
20-10-2005, 12:23 PM
The preliminary Feasibility Study is due in Dec 2005 and I am expecting some price action at that time. Production is estimated to start about 1 June 2007.

Current approx MoOxide (Moly) price: $US32.25/lb:
http://www.galahadgold.com/investorrelations/sacprices.html

Current Share price: $1.38


Gerry

stolwyk
27-10-2005, 01:32 PM
Quarterly Report:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-history?S=MOL&E=ASX&Year=2005

Cash and short term deposits As at 30 September 2005, cash and short term deposits totalled $15.0 million. Moly Mines has $nil borrowings

Molybdenum -
Spinifex Ridge, WA
• Continuing record molybdenum prices
• Pre-feasibility Study on track for completion in December with Definitive Feasibility Study in mid-2006
• Resource drilling complete - confirms integrity of historical data - identifies high grade extensions
• WorleyParsons appointed as lead engineers
• Sites for major project facilities identified - sterilisation drilling completed
• Metallurgical test work indicates 90% recovery with co**** primary grind
• Baseline environmental study complete - no major impediments

Gold - Dargues Reef, NSW
• Emerging gold province
• Continued drilling success indicates million ounce potential at Dargues Reef..."


"World molybdenum prices, having peaked at about US$40 earlier in the year, continue to show resilience with Molybdenum Oxide still trading above US$30 per lb of contained Mo.

Analysts including those from UBS and Macquarie have recently revised their price forecasts for Mo upwards and outwards suggesting Mo staying above US$15 during 2006 with Macquarie predicting US$7.50 as a long term Mo price.

This is more than double the historical average and is very favourable for the development and profitable operation of the Spinifex ridge Project".

MOL has 30.425 mill shares on issue.

COMMENT: I think that the Dargues Reef GOLD Project will be listed as a separate Co. at some stage.

stolwyk
21-11-2005, 07:18 PM
MOLY MINES LIMITED ABN 32 103 295 521 NOTICE OF ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING AND EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM

Venue The WA Club 101 St George’s Terrace

PERTH WA 6000

Date 24 November 2005 Time 11.00am (WST)


Share price: $1.76

stolwyk
24-11-2005, 12:24 PM
Resource Upgrade for Spinifex Ridge

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MOL&E=ASX&N=306551

stolwyk
25-11-2005, 08:41 PM
AGM -PRESENTATION

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MOL&E=ASX&N=306876

stolwyk
26-11-2005, 01:54 PM
Latest Resource Insitu valuation.
1.Introduction.

From Announcements:
"The new JORC compliant Indicated and Inferred resource, calculated using a 0.04% Mo cutoff,
is: 425 million tonnes @ 0.07% Mo and 0.09% Cu"

Comment: The previous estimate gave 152 mill tonnes of this moly @ 0.09%. The coming preliminary BFS in Dec. will take this into account, I think. Obviously, if possible, they would start mining the richer portion first.

There may not have been enough time to calculate that now, in any case, we are still waiting for results from 5 more holes.

"The resource is still open at depth and, in places, along strike with assays still pending from five holes outside of the current resource boundary. Significant intervals of molybdenum and copper mineralization have been observed in these holes".

This is possibly the second largest project in the world. MOL also has another 3 smaller Moly projects in NSW and a very promising Gold project with some $A260 mill worth of gold and drilling is continuing.


2. Calculation of Insitu value of Spinifex Ridge Moly.
Deposit: 425 mill+ tonnes of Moly @ 0.07% and Cu @ 0.09%. Moly oxide price: $US30.50 /lb or $A 41.353/lb.

Cu price, say $US1.70/lb or $A2.304/lb. $A=USD 0.737544.
MOLY value: $A27.065 Bill. Cu value $A2.628 Bill.

TOTAL INSITU VALUE: $A29.693 Bill.

Note: Cu (Copper) will be used to offset the cash costs of Moly.


3. Insitu value per $A1 market Cap. Resource: $A29.693 Bill +. Share price: $A1.82

All Shares: 30.434 mill. Al options: 15.125 mill unlisted of which 12.65 mill are converted before or on March 2009.

Undiluted:
Market CAP: 30.434 mill * $1.82= $A55.39 mill.
Insitu value per $1 market Cap: 29.693 Bill / 55.39 mill= $A536.0


4. Insitu value per share:
4.1 Undiluted: 29.693 Bill / 30.434 mill shares: $A975.6

4.2 Diluted: 29.693 Bill / 45.559 mill= $A651.7

Note that preliminary BFS results are due at end of Dec.

Subject to audit,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

aussie joe
26-11-2005, 04:55 PM
Gerry,

I am fairly new to these discussion boards and I am finding vital information through these discussions. I do also realize that these discussion boards can be a vehicle for ramping but if the person seeking the information devises a way strategy to distinguish the rampers, then the genuine posters will provide you with the information you looking for.

Your name is preceded with the title of Legend followed by 5 stars I guess it is fairly difficult to get to this level. At first I thought to myself what a w*nk, someone having that sort of title. To this I have had to retract my initial thoughts as your investing strategy continually keeps the high returns coming. And as a investor that result is your ultimate aim. To this Gerry I firstly congratulate you and look forward to reading your views and comments going forward. And if you continue to hit these sort of returns you will be an absolute legend in my eyes as well.

The absolute beauty of this situation is I have realized that you are willing to share your knowledge, your research and your thoughts. As always no one should act on your advise as they should do their own research and set professional advise as you continually remind everyone when you post your thoughts.

Enough about how good you are except for keep up the good work.

In reviewing this whole thread I notice your first post on this company was on the 29/9/05 when its sp was trading somewhere between 1.335 – 1.41 (thanks comsuc for spitting out a table with no headings). Base on the worst case of $1.41 and compared to Fridays close price of $1.75 it has already amassed a 24% increase. This leads me to my first question. Has the sp still got legs? Will it continue to rise? If so, would it be possible to give me your predictions of what you reckon the sp will be in 3 months? 6 months? 1 year? And 5 years? I would love to know your thoughts.

I have reviewed the graph for Molybdenum spot price as found your link (http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/0929b.html). I would like to point out the similarity in price to Uranium and mention that the article is very interesting.

Haven’t yet bought into this one. But on Monday I think I will be putting in an order.

Cheers,

aussie joe

pago
26-11-2005, 07:18 PM
hi aussie joe,in formulating your investment plan in moly mines bear in mind they released a forecast that mo prices,us$30/lb may drop in 2006 to $25/$15,lb.im not saying moly mines doesnt have upside but picking its value into 2006 is another equation.best do another worst case senario.i see they want to move into production asap,cheers pago.

stolwyk
26-11-2005, 07:29 PM
Aussie,

One gets more stars by writing more posts.

I post to another site and have collected some 15,500 posts there since May 2001. They don't use any "rewards" there.

As always, the reader needs to be prepared to take risks, be they nominal or real. He decides when to get in or out.

MOL went up to $A1.80 actually but then a lot of mining shares lost steam on Friday and MOL is now $1.75.

We need to wait till the results of the Preliminary BFS (Bankable feasibility study) at end of Dec. are announced while in the meantime the results from 5 holes will be supplied. The outcome of that BFS ought to influence the share price.

As to the Insitu data, these do give me a good impression as to what we may expect; but of course to get the net effect, one needs to do a different analyses. I'LL leave that to the BFS. Provided the Moly Price does'nt fall too far, and the uptake (A possible partner) can be arranged, then the IRR ought to be very good IMHO.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

stolwyk
26-11-2005, 08:06 PM
This aricle is interesting:

http://molytest.powercreations.com.au/images/molymines---keele.pdf

easy money
26-11-2005, 09:11 PM
for sure...the value in ground is there...and this stock is far cheaper than smm...but not as cheap as aru

stolwyk
26-11-2005, 10:57 PM
I have both stocks. They have different main metals: REE or Mo.

Gerry

stolwyk
31-01-2006, 08:40 PM
Second Quarter Cashflow Report

Outflow 3.663 mill

Cash 11.293 mill



Share price $1.90

stolwyk
10-02-2006, 11:35 AM
10 February 2006 Company Announcements Office Australian Stock Exchange Limited Exchange Plaza 2 The Esplanade Perth WA 6000

MOLY MINES ACQUIRES 90% INTEREST IN SPINIFEX RIDGE MOLYBDENUM / COPPER PROJECT

Moly Mines Limited (ASX: MOL) is pleased to announce that through its wholly owned subsidiary Moly Metals Australia Pty Ltd it has exercised its option to acquire additional interest in the Spinifex Ridge Molybdenum (“Mo”) / Copper (“Cu”) Project in the Pilbara of Western Australia with the payment of $750,000 to Kallenia Mines Pty Ltd (“Kallenia”). By exercising the option, Moly Mines holds a 90% interest in the Spinifex Ridge tenement, being Exploration Licence E45/2226 and associated mining lease applications. The transaction completes on 16 February 2006.

The option exercise reflects the Board’s confidence in this substantial project as the Company finalises details of the Pre-Feasibility Study (“PFS”). Managing Director Dr Derek Fisher noted that taking control of the Project tenement was an important step as it progresses the Project through to a development decision. “With native title negotiations over the granting of mining leases and other project approvals well advanced, securing our interest in the tenement represents a significant project milestone.” Dr Fisher said. As mentioned in the December 2005 Quarterly Activities Report, results of the recently completed PFS are being compiled and it is expected those results will be released to the market during February.

The exercise is pursuant to the Option Agreement dated 1 April 2004 between Moly Mines Limited’s 100% owned subsidiary Moly Metals Australia Pty Ltd and Kallenia. Completion of the exercise will occur within 5 business days. Kallenia retains a free-carried 10% interest in the Spinifex Ridge tenement until a decision to mine is made by Moly Mines. Yours Sincerely Dr Derek Fisher Managing Director"

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MOL&E=ASX&N=313745

pago
22-03-2007, 06:01 PM
hi gerry.do you still hold mol.im not a holder,but mol share price has certainly spiked,on the up and up,cheers pago.

aurelian
14-11-2009, 07:08 PM
Is anyone following MOL?
SPP at 80c for those with holdings at 4 Nov
SP has pulled back to 91c, What is the likelihood of it dropping further?

Thanks

easy money
15-11-2009, 10:30 AM
would not loose to much sleep on this one...any price drop is a chance to top up...iron ore will be up and running next year...moly project could also be started.

easy money
04-08-2010, 01:17 PM
I see the share price is building once again...good outlook for this company.

easy money
04-12-2010, 07:40 PM
Iron ore mine now in production....2011 will be a good year.

easy money
04-01-2011, 11:01 AM
yes...a good year indeed.

Jaa
04-01-2011, 02:17 PM
I have also been holding for the last year or so.

Any idea why the recent increase in the share price led from Canada?

Chinese interests with inside knowledge accumulating in advance of the financing being finalised, commencement of iron ore shipments or the rising Moly price?