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TheBossMan
07-10-2005, 10:18 PM
I've been accumulating this little gem since its float. From an issue price of 50 cents (3 weeks back), it went upto 90 cents, and is trading at 60 cents now.

I like the firm for the following reasons:
- Homeland security - an industry that is set to grow in Asia Pacific region in the next decade
- Significant industry experience in the Board, Senior management, and technical personnel
- Good product set and ongoing investments in R&D
- Dividend payout ratio of 40-50% of net profits

Anyone else in it?

Cheers

mark100
07-10-2005, 11:43 PM
Hi TheBoss,

I have been meaning to start a topic on this one but you beat me too it. This is what I wrote on sharescene a couple of weeks ago:

"From a fundamental perspective, last fin year they made NPAT of $1.7m on $14.5m sales, so a NPAT margin of 11.7%.

This fin year they reckon they have already identified sales of $20m of which $14m are committed. And in the AFR last friday they said this did not include routine business. So considering we are only 1/4 of the way into the fin year I'm thinking the full year sales could be around $25m or even better?

If they could maintain the same margin on sales of $25m they could have EPS of around 7.2c?"

These figures are just rough estimates, I could be way off. However I can't see this stock been negatively affected by the economic cycle. In my view, it should continue to benefit from increased spending on security by the public and private sectors.

cheers
Mark

TheBossMan
08-10-2005, 06:18 PM
Hi mark100.

You're right about the $6million in advanced stages of negotiation. During economic downturn, I expect more spending by government on security-products, due to increased unemployment, shifts in policies etc. Under such circumstances, Govt. may actually organise special events for the feel-good factor, resulting in demand for XTE.

I like XTE also because of the scope in related diversification. (reselling american products, annual maintenance contracts, moving towards technology-based security etc.). I'll be writing to the firm asking for its scope & any presence in New Zealand, although I realise that the primary market is Australia.

Am I right with the current market capitalisation as approx. $20 million?

I can see the share price touching $1 in a year from now.

Cheers

mark100
10-10-2005, 12:32 AM
There are 40.5m shares on issue, so Market Cap is currently $24m. Historical pe is 14 with solid growth expected

cheers

TheBossMan
10-10-2005, 03:35 PM
What is the right P/E for such a firm? How do you benchmark it? I'll dig some stuff from US companies tonight and see what comes out of it.

mark100
10-10-2005, 04:01 PM
Its a bit hard. I tend to focus on companies with forward pe's under around 12. I think anything under that is ok value provided its in a growing industry.

Last year XTE had sales of around $14m. They claim they already have that much locked in for this year and we're only 3.5 months into the year. So I'm expecting them to post solid profit growth this year which should push the pe under 10.

cheers

TheBossMan
10-10-2005, 10:43 PM
Bring out the champagne & cigars, here's the latest announcement:

XTE wins defence contract for the supply of bomb disposal robots (worth $15 million).

TheBossMan
11-10-2005, 11:57 AM
Expect SP to touch at least 70 cents today

TheBossMan
11-10-2005, 12:18 PM
hmm. 10% increase to 68.5..almost there.

I've asked XTEK to confirm if the $15 million includes the "potential $6 million outlined in the prospectus". Will post the reply here.

TheBossMan
13-10-2005, 06:40 PM
It has been 2 days and there's no reply. Usually I get replies from most firms within 48 hours. Personally, I dont like to deal with firms that dont respond quickly to small shareholders. I'll put this down to teething problems of a newly-listed company. If I dont hear by COB tomorrow, I'm out of this stock.

On the plus side, it is good to see the SP stabilising in 60 cents margin, despite the overall negative mood in the market. This represents a 20% gain from its listing price.

TheBossMan
17-10-2005, 03:39 PM
I've got a reply from the firm now and am quite happy with it. The $15 million is over and above the potential $6 million currently under advanced stages of negotiation. The revenue is for the expected sale of additional equipment and service to Defence connected with the overall contract.

I'm fairly bullish about the firm. They're quietly going about their business and with John Howard pushing anti-terrorism laws, homeland security is in focus.

mark100
17-10-2005, 04:03 PM
TheBoss, Thanks for finding that out. That is good news.

Mark

TheBossMan
18-10-2005, 10:38 AM
Homeland Security firms on NASDAQ trade around the 18-20 P/E range. There is some industry consolidation and huge takeovers in US. Firms like Fortress America are looking at acquisitions for growth.

TheBossMan
18-10-2005, 10:39 AM
ASIO to receive huge funding - augurs well for XTEK?

See http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/asio-to-receive-huge-funding-boost/2005/10/16/1129401138358.html

TheBossMan
10-11-2005, 10:52 AM
and another contract. This time, it is for security training for CommonWealth Games.

The annual report looks promising. Capital raising in offer for expansion. I think, XTEK is increasingly looking like the "preferred" security agency for government contracts. Their strong network with defence personnel on the Board, does help.

mark100
10-11-2005, 12:29 PM
The Boss,

What is this about a capital raising? On the Notice of AGM there were 4 resolutions but on the proxy form there were 5 and the 5th on was 'Proposed Capital Raising'. I rang the company and they said it was a mistake and a new form was to be sent out but I haven't got anything yet.

Mark

TheBossMan
10-11-2005, 04:58 PM
same here. but, they had signalled expansion in an earlier report, so it may be in the offing.

mark100
10-11-2005, 05:11 PM
I got the info in the mail today. Seeking approval to raise $7m at a discount of up to 20%. They just raised capital for the float, why rasie more now??
No wonder the price has been under pressure

TheBossMan
10-11-2005, 09:01 PM
I've asked the company for more details. will post it tomorrow or so.

Happy to see a 10% gain?

mark100
11-11-2005, 10:33 AM
Yes happy with the share price gains but I would have thought they would have made a proper annoucement regarding the placement. Sounds like its for potential acquisitions.

I'd say this is why the share price has been struggling, the big boys knew it was coming up

Mark

TheBossMan
28-11-2005, 10:51 PM
Hi major: did you notice the latest news :)? Another Defence contract!!

All your questions are good. Let me see if I can respond:

You're right that XTEK's earnings in 2005 ($1.7 m) is not huge for a major supplier of Olympics. From what I know, most firms that are started by ex-police/defence personnel tend to keep it simple, small, and retain full control, rather than go big-bang. It has taken fresh faces and some global events for XTEK to float.

Total shares would come to 51million and at conservative earnings of $2.2 million (easily achievable considering the fact they're getting contracts signed that weren't signalled earlier), it is trading at 2006 P/E of 15. Current P/E is 13.

Global homeland security firms trade at P/E levels of 18-20. That puts XTEK at 76 cents [8D](or) at current earnings and market cap, around 88 cents.

XTEK is not only investing in R&D, but acquiring patents and commercialising the products.

Sales: the only issue for XTEK is that the sales will be lumpy. Large government contracts go through tender boards & RFP processes - lot of lead time, but that is usually factored in the gross margin.[^]

I havent called the company yet to ask about capital raising.

Their prospectus is on their web site (www.xtek.net). and the original owners did not sell down. 12 million (25%) is still around. In fact, the CEO and other staff have voluntarily placed their shares in escrow for a year.

Keep the discussion going. I'll do some financial statement analysis in 3 weeks' time and post more.[8D]

Disc: proud shareholder of XTEK

mark100
07-02-2006, 01:59 PM
Well it seems Major's concern was well warranted with XTE. The share price has been on a downward spiral since the AGM. I sold out when the capital raising was mentioned and took a loss.

In FY05 they made NPAT of $1.75m. However at the AGM after about 6 pages of bullsh1t they quietly mention that the half year will show a loss of $1.75 - $2m due to seaonsonal factors, order delays etc.
Yet they then go on to claim that they will still show profit growth for the full year.

I note the proposed capital raising has been pulled although they intend to raise $7m via a convertible note issue in the future.

I await the interim result with interest. If they are on target to show profit growth over the FY05 result they may be attractively prices at present. However, I find that a bit hard to believe given the interim loss they are forecasting.

TheBossMan
05-11-2006, 02:17 PM
well, how things change in one year. I was obviously very bullish, but I failed to take into the account the mgmt. quality. Luckily, managed to get out with a small profit.

Reminds me of a quote "poor managers in the right industry" will still screw things.

However, is it time to keep this in the watchlist? capital raising and restructuring are complete, new faces in the board, and more importantly Higgins buying 150,000 shares on market. Is it a signal of good times to come or is it a ploy to keep shareholder interest alive?

Disc: do not hold and will not buy until I'm convinced of profitability and mgmt. commitment to clear strategy.

Lizard
03-11-2009, 03:31 PM
Mark100,

Are you still following this one?

I remember looking at it when it floated and couldn't quite figure out where the value was at 50cps. Slightly different proposition here at 4.5cps and with a change of management. (Would have been an even better proposition when it was being specialled off in April at 0.7cps).

Market cap $3.7m
NTA of $2.88m (including $1.34m cash)
FY09 NPBT of $709k
FY09 Revenue $13.4m

Chairman's letter of 29 September (Annual Report) indicated that ytd is tracking ahead of last year - although first half wasn't an earner last year, so would have to hope so.

Might still be a trash-trade in it at these levels?

mark100
04-11-2009, 03:17 PM
Hi Lizard, I haven't followed for several years so I'm not much help to you

steve fleming
04-11-2009, 09:40 PM
Mark100,

Are you still following this one?

I remember looking at it when it floated and couldn't quite figure out where the value was at 50cps. Slightly different proposition here at 4.5cps and with a change of management. (Would have been an even better proposition when it was being specialled off in April at 0.7cps).

Market cap $3.7m
NTA of $2.88m (including $1.34m cash)
FY09 NPBT of $709k
FY09 Revenue $13.4m

Chairman's letter of 29 September (Annual Report) indicated that ytd is tracking ahead of last year - although first half wasn't an earner last year, so would have to hope so.

Might still be a trash-trade in it at these levels?

It's on my watchlist Liz.

Came up a couple of months back when i did a scan of profitable companies with a m/c of less than $5m - wasn't a terribly long list!

Good little company - although sales may be lumpy year to year. Costs seem to be under control now.

Its quite a waiting game for these illiquid small caps to re-rate....i don't know if i have the patience for another one!

Lizard
05-11-2009, 12:53 PM
Hi Steve,
I got lucky with LRG the other week, so it might have made me a bit over-confident in picking another micro-cap.

Have just discovered the Austender website (https://www.tenders.gov.au/?event=public.advancedsearch.checkTypeSearch&type=cnEvent&agencyStatus=0&submitButton-2=Proceed+to+step+2) contracts search function - could be a good way to keep advance tabs on XTE's order book, since the vast majority of revenue is from Aus defence/police.

First qtr looked on the slow side in terms of value, but only takes a couple of bigger orders to move it, so I'll take another look in December. There was reasonable value of contracts written in second half last year, some of which will carryover as revenue this financial.

Lizard
27-11-2009, 08:00 PM
Reviewed the latest AusTender wins for Xtek and looks a bit light c.f. last year. Will depend upon the exact timing of invoicing larger orders, but my current thinking is that they will be struggling to post a profit in first half. AGM presentation didn't do anything to change that view, although there's always the possibility for a comeback in the second half if they get some more UAS orders.

Anyway, have sold-out my small trade for now and going to stand aside until at least half year.

steve fleming
25-06-2010, 10:57 PM
Good little company - although sales may be lumpy year to year. Costs seem to be under control now.



Well per the announcement today costs were not under control!! - "the operational expenditure is too high given the revenue that XTEK can expect in a cyclical downturn year".

Large cap raising coming (30m new shares vs 93m shares on issue) to fund a small acquisition.

Strategy seems to me to be all over the place and XTE look a bit desperate in trying to secure some revenue diversification.

However Directors seem keen with some big buying recently.

Lizard
26-06-2010, 07:52 AM
The wins on AusTender for them were dire earlier this half, but have picked up a little of late. However, still very little of any significant value - no robot sales that I can recall.

I have stayed well clear since then.

Btw, Bruce Higgins was on XTE board for a while (after leaving RDF/C4i) but seemed to give up on them and moved on to focus on LGD where he is doing a good job. He seems to be a positive influence and perhaps one to watch?

Lizard
21-10-2014, 06:09 AM
Should get a good first half result based on orders at year end of $3.4m and can expect some positive agm commentary. Could be a punt at 3.4/3.5cps (market cap $7m). However, will need evidence of continued sales growth to justify a sustained share price rise, given revenues were only $5.3m in FY14.

Joshuatree
01-12-2014, 12:20 PM
Been a good punt atp Lizard. 4.2c and lots of int today. Up in a down market. Lots of confidence re sales and profits increasing ahead. Consolidation happening too.Great sector to be in.

Lizard
01-12-2014, 09:11 PM
Timetable for 1:10 consolidation is pretty tight, as approved Friday, traded unconsolidated today and trades deferred from tomorrow, so presumably will trade as XTEDA for a few days from tomorrow until 12th?

Not sure about the "great sector" part, JT, as they still make more revenue from ammunition than from UAV's, so maybe not everyone's cup of tea.

Joshuatree
02-12-2014, 07:52 AM
True ; i was thinking re the growth in defence spending against poss terrorist threats, bomb disposal, armour protection etc. The thought of ammunition manufacture is an uncomfortable fit in my portfolio so will relook, reassess.

Joshuatree
15-12-2014, 12:20 PM
ISIS Sydney Martin Place terror attack: Hostages held at ... (http://www.google.co.nz/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CDsQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.christiantoday.com%2Farticle% 2Fisis.sydney.attack.hostages.held.at.lindt.cafe.i n.martin.place.under.siege%2F44402.htm&ei=qyiOVP-eJIONmwXh04HgDw&usg=AFQjCNH4iW4NonVu3LLVaepa9wsXSnARHw&bvm=bv.81828268,d.dGY)

Joshuatree
17-12-2014, 04:22 PM
Consoiidated s/p now 48c up 11% plus atp today..

Joshuatree
22-12-2014, 02:25 PM
Order for $7.698 worth of Drones (UAV'S) today (i think the first) from Aus army. S/P springs like a big red to currently 60c:t_up:

Joshuatree
22-12-2014, 02:32 PM
" income up 18% to $5.71 mill FY 2014"
..."prospects of more than $20 mill FY2015"
well on the way mkt cap now just over $10 mill

Lizard
22-12-2014, 06:24 PM
Yes. Not much of a move, so I'm guessing this had well-leaked! Still okay with the gain from 35cps (consolidation equivalent) to 58cps today. Think there's a bit more in it, but not expecting huge multiples here.

Joshuatree
22-12-2014, 08:18 PM
Yes I've just watched a video withChairman and alan kohler . 47%(more with their own products) margins and a $200 million Drone contract they are chasing some or all of.

Lizard
22-12-2014, 08:56 PM
Yes I've just watched a video withChairman and alan kohler . 47%(more with their own products) margins and a $200 million Drone contract they are chasing some or all of.

The AUD:USD exchange rate is possibly not in their favour on this. And don't hold your breath for JP129 (http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/iais-iview-uav-partners-wins-australias-jp129-contract-updated-01620/) ... although the ongoing picture is for greater use of UAV's.

Here's some fun reads on UAV's in the Aussie defence force:
http://www.academia.edu/7391098/Australia_Enters_the_Unmanned_Combat_Aircraft_Age
http://aaus.org.au/webdev/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Riddel-presentation.pdf

NZSilver
23-12-2014, 08:58 AM
Haha interesting read Lizard - I'm not invested but enjoyed the pilottranscripts from when they crashed the UAV's in the second link. (who is sitting at the base and does not get injured but I'm sure gets a lot of s*#t from everyone)

"Where the hell is — where is the runway? It’s all
the way over here. I overshot. Oh, ****. I think we
lost the engine. Oh, ****, oh damn, oh my God,
what is that? . . . What was all that stuff I just hit?”

“What’s going on? Hang on! Hang on!. . . . Uh-oh!
****! It’s spinning! . . . Okay, I think it just fell out of
the sky.”

Joshuatree
27-02-2015, 04:11 PM
XTE is the lumpiest . The next half is going to be a monster.This half didn't touch the sides of the anaconda.

Joshuatree
24-08-2015, 02:53 PM
Still running upstream atp up re 6% 2000 × 1333 - wallpaperbackgrounds.com (http://www.google.co.nz/imgres?imgurl=http://free.wallpaperbackgrounds.com/animal/bear/157649-3310.jpg&imgrefurl=http://wallpaperbackgrounds.com/wallpaper/3278&h=1333&w=2000&tbnid=JA2D044zt5WfeM:&docid=mwiSSNgO9WAlLM&ei=YpTaVZ6HEeLYmgXa7rXwCw&tbm=isch&client=safari&ved=0CGEQMyg8MDxqFQoTCJ7AopXowMcCFWKspgodWncNvg)

Joshuatree
23-11-2015, 03:50 PM
Thanks to Ben2010 for this research note.S/P up re 17% to 45c today.(maybe in response to this )

Game of Drones: ASX Stock Set for Aerial Uplift?
Game of Drones: ASX Stock Set for Aerial Uplift?

The summer holidays are just around the corner and it’s almost time to fill the stocking, crack open a beer, wine or soft drink, or just reward yourself with a nifty little toy for all the hard work you’ve put in during the year.
And one of the prized possessions on your shopping list may well be a drone.
But beyond being a great idea for a Christmas present, the main cash to be made from drones is in supplying to the emergency and first responder market.

The global market for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) – the technical term for drones – is estimated to grow from US$6.76BN in 2014 to US$10.57BN by 2020.
One stock that has just caught our attention is a relatively unknown ASX-listed technology company selling not only into the drone market, but also very useful products for military and law enforcement agencies, including the Australian Defence Force.
This company is currently generating revenue right now from its comprehensive range of military equipment and products – in fact revenue doubled last FY alone.
But its latest product could be a game changer…
This Company’s latest tech generates detailed aerial imagery in real time from a drone, and superimposes it onto existing maps such as Google Maps.

Game of Drones: ASX Stock Set for Aerial Uplift?
This company’s latest product may soon be a must have for drones in use by government, law enforcement, and first responder agencies – and consequently has significant commercial potential.
Beside the drone technology, the company was awarded a contract by the US Department of Defence, which will see its advanced lightweight hard armour plates rigorously tested.
If this company satisfies the US DoD that its armour plates are up to scratch, this could rapidly open the gates on large defence contracts.

Validation from the US DoD would also validate this tech in the wider, global market…
The Company is currently valued at just $8.25M and is tightly held – and given there are major catalysts on the horizon, this stock could move quickly.
At the same time, this is a small tech company and a speculative stock – please do your own research before considering as an investment.
So with over $12M in annual sales, $10M in equity funding if needed, and zero debt, we introduce you to XTE

Game of Drones: ASX Stock Set for Aerial Uplift?
XTEK Ltd (ASX:XTE) is a small but thriving defence contractor that secured over $12M worth of sales last year. The company, founded in 1978 and listed in 2005, has quietly gone about developing a range of products for military and security purposes.
XTE doubled its revenue from FY14 to FY15.

Beyond its existing sales, after years of intensive research and development (R&D), XTE has produced two distinctive and cutting-edge innovations:


XTclaveTM (body armour), and;
XTatlasTM (contextual, real time video for drones) which should give it a much larger springboard to bounce into the global $2.1TN defence industry.

This company is also just months away from finding out whether the US Department of Defence (DoD) would like to embrace its manufacturing technology for the production of future extra light and strong body armour.
So far we’ve only concentrated mainly on the drones aspect to this company, but a potential armour deal with the US DoD…
…could unlock a huge contract into what is a very large American market.

The US has one of the highest spending military bodies in the world, spending over $600BN per year – and what they buy often has an impact on the wider market.
This news could be a major catalyst for XTE.
In the coming months and after an intense two-year trial period, the US Armed Forces will finally see first-hand the benefits of XTE’s product.


Game of Drones: ASX Stock Set for Aerial Uplift?
Any US deal will come on the back of a recent $7.7M Australian Defence Force (ADF) purchase order (http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20150629/pdf/42zgrl1nn8nbhd.pdf) and the sale of its broader products.
Imagine what XTE could do if it were to supply the US military – remember they spend over $600BN per year…
Having said that, there is no absolute guarantee that XTE can unlock significant revenue in a US deal – at this stage the company is participating in development and testing work only.
Before we get to ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at XTE’s performance over the past four years

Joshuatree
26-11-2015, 05:07 PM
Took profits late today, mixed messages announcements wise.

silu
02-12-2016, 08:25 AM
Over the last few months I've been buying XTE between 30-36c range after a change of management in October. They had a very disappointing 2015/16 year but they have already doubled revenue in 2016/17. Australian government looks to increase Homeland Security spending to 2% of GDP by 2022. One of their innovative products XTclave has caught my eye a patented process to create lightweight ballistic protection laminates. Talking to ex soldiers body armour is stiff and uncomfortable to wear. This technology allows stronger, lighter and complex shaped parts to be manufactured. The US DoD is in a testing programme using this technology.

AFR article from 28th November about XTclave: http://www.afr.com/news/special-reports/defence-and-national-security/breaking-new-ground-in-body-armour-20161124-gsxbfp
Link to latest AGM presentation 30th November 2016: http://www.xtek.net/assets/Uploads/Sectors/Investor-Centre/ASX-Announcements-2016/XTEK-Managing-Director-AGM-Presentation.pdf

It's a very thinly traded stock with a current MC of $10mil.

silu
13-03-2017, 04:06 PM
Bringing this up towards the top as directors have been buying of late, they have announced ballistic armour that is up to 30% lighter and some smaller Defence Force contracts. But most importantly hopefully soon we find out whether Xtek was successful in landing the Land 129 contract worth to be at least $100m. I continue to hold because if this flys it will fly. If not the downside is limited as I cannot see how Land 129 has been incorporated in any way in the SP.

silu
14-03-2017, 08:44 AM
Xtek in the news (From 9 News)

https://www.facebook.com/9NewsCanberra/videos/784865571667338/

Well Endowed
14-03-2017, 12:08 PM
Hi Silu, I've followed this for a couple years but never pulled the trigger (no pun intended). With a large bulk of the revenue booked in the second half, you think XTEK are close to profitability for the FY? They don't have much cash in the bank (~250k) as of december and whilst inventories are close to 1mill, and there are some decent receivables, it wouldn't take much to need a CR?

silu
14-03-2017, 12:27 PM
Xtek is expected to be profitable for the second half of 2017 if forecasts are met. Also we should find out next month if Xtek was successfull in landing the Land 129 Phase 4 contract. In their latest quarterly update they also state that we should see revenues from their new technologies coming into 2017.

They haven't said anything that they may need a CR but if they could get Land 129 Phase 4 I'd be happy to participate in a CR at the right terms.

silu
15-03-2017, 08:00 AM
From the HC forum
8747

Well Endowed
15-03-2017, 08:02 AM
that $100m figure that is thrown around for land 129 phase 4, - what sort of timeframe is that contract split over, 4-5yrs?

silu
15-03-2017, 10:45 AM
The $100m figure is actually pure speculation. Could be more, could be less. The supply side of the contract would be done immediately and who knows about the ongoing service contract.

silu
23-05-2017, 09:17 AM
Xtek got a nice little bump of late after a positive market update and an updated investor presentation. Land 129 Phase 4 contract should be signed soon and scope of contracts awarded and details of CR will be of major interest.
Here an interesting interview with Philippe Odouard from Xtek. https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/704-podcast-going-global-with-smes

silu
01-06-2017, 10:06 AM
ADF announces a $101 million investment into Small Unmanned Aerial Systems with the first tranch being Xtek's WASP AE system. Approx $11 million for acquisition and $4 million/pa for sustainment (update - that's the Australian only portion of the contract. Not a 100% sure yet it this all is rewarded to XTEK)

silu
01-06-2017, 10:09 AM
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/army-buys-100-million-fleet-of-small-drones-to-protect-soldiers-on-battlefield-20170531-gwhhbv.html

silu
01-06-2017, 10:54 AM
Getting excited about the market's reaction to this - I've been waiting for this for a while now. MC at 40c is under $12 million so it should get a decent re-rate.

silu
09-06-2017, 11:46 AM
If you're already a holder their latest company update should make you very happy http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01864533

duncan22
19-06-2017, 06:35 PM
Another $1.7m contract announced today. Looks pretty promising as a long term hold!

Rumours of a capital raising doing the rounds so be careful if just buying in. I hold 1 share currently so hopefully accompanied by a SPP.

silu
20-06-2017, 08:12 AM
Hi duncan, I'm obviously a happy holder of XTE. Think this has a few more legs to run on. In the short term anything under 35c was a steal where I was accumulating.

A little off topic: I'm currently in the process of releasing some funds for a home purchase and was wondering myself if I should keep a few shares on the side of speculative investments so I can participate in SPP should they be competitively priced. Is that something you had good experiences with? I assume owning just 1 share of a company is possible? Would love to hear your feedback.

duncan22
21-06-2017, 07:05 AM
Hi duncan, I'm obviously a happy holder of XTE. Think this has a few more legs to run on. In the short term anything under 35c was a steal where I was accumulating.

A little off topic: I'm currently in the process of releasing some funds for a home purchase and was wondering myself if I should keep a few shares on the side of speculative investments so I can participate in SPP should they be competitively priced. Is that something you had good experiences with? I assume owning just 1 share of a company is possible? Would love to hear your feedback.

I now have 1 share of every share I've ever owned. The positives being if they do a SPP with no ratio (ie 1 share for every 5 you own) and the share price increases then you're in the money. The only negative, bloody messy looking portfolios, like having every app on your phone show you a 1 notification circle on it. I've passed up quite a few SPPs I qualified for so far due to share price weaknesss after announced but 10% increase. I know that over time I'll make some money off it so I'm okay with the mess.

silu
21-07-2017, 08:48 AM
Great market update by Xtek. Wish I had some funds so I can participate in the SPP but already have quite a few. SP still quite cheap with ADOF increasing spending on homeland security over the coming years plus it's desire to buy from Australian based companies. Also this bit from the market update has caught my attention:

"XTEK remains well placed to secure additional sales contracts as robots used by Australian law enforcement agencies are approaching the end of their useful lifecycle and will need to be upgraded or replaced."

Although this is in the low margin part of Xtek's business the money is in the service contracts. The real moneymaker is XTclave and they continue to work with the US military and Counter Terrorism Office on that front.

silu
07-02-2018, 12:25 PM
Even the Dow plunge could only slightly hold XTE's re-rate after a good market update. Currently trading at all-time high of 67c

silu
21-08-2018, 11:18 AM
Checking in. Still holding a good chunk. Currently trading at 46.5c. They have confirmed revenue for 2018 to be $17.2m which was on the upper band of guidance and up 91% on 2017. No mention of positive EBITDA but official results will be announced by 31st August. Will continue to hold but may look at an exit point over the next 12 months.

silu
03-09-2018, 08:39 AM
FY out: https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A499975/
Revenue up 91% to 17.267m
Profit up 128% to 139k
Total employee benefits are 3,116m!!

as said above I'm looking to downsize or exit completely. Better opportunities out there. Still sitting on +30% after 2 years of holding so not exactly a disaster.

Well Endowed
03-09-2018, 09:00 AM
been on my watchlist for a long time, never pulled the trigger. agree with your sentiment. look like they're destined to crab sideways for awhile

silu
25-10-2018, 10:36 AM
Update on XTclave commercialization (which would be a company maker):
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20181025/pdf/43zlg1ds1kvn4n.pdf

discl. still holding my decent sized parcel

silu
19-08-2019, 02:27 PM
Just upping this as FY result will be out by the end of August. Company has announced $30-35m in revenue. They should also be EBITDA positive.

The biggest news since the last update was that they have acquired HighCom, a successful and profitable provider of body armour and personal protective equipment in the USA https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A519728/

Despite what I've been saying I haven't sold any (yet). I believe it should be trading closer to 60c and a run after the FY announcement might give me an opportunity to cash in.

silu
20-08-2019, 03:41 PM
Nice little price action of late. Sitting on 55.5c which we haven't seen since early 2018. FY result out most likely on 30th August. MD is very confident that they will do $35m revenue which is on the upper hand of the band.

It still sits on a MC of only $27m as their proprietary products are still in its infancy. XTclave is a company maker. However in the near term I believe XTatlas might be product to look at. Also servicing the drones is also a high margin business.

silu
21-08-2019, 03:35 PM
Hmm feeling quietly miffed that I didn't participate in the 45c CR 3 weeks ago when it's now trading at 61c.

silu
30-08-2019, 08:17 AM
Final Report is out: https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A522878/

OPERATING RESULTS
Key Points:
• Group revenue of $37.86m – a 119% increase from FY18
• Group EBITDA of $478,113 – a 106% increase from FY18
• Group net profit of $168,433 – a 21% increase from FY18
• Reduced gross margin percentage, a one-off

MC $28.2m
No debt
Cash on hand $5.3m

The market so far has not valued Xtek in line with its numbers as, at the moment, the majority of their revenue comes from low margin re-selling of SUSA (Small Unmanned Aerial Systems). Higher margins are going to come from:

- service contracts relating to SUSA
- sales from HighCom (acquired this year)
- propitiatory product like XTclave and XTatlas

I'm hoping for a re-rate closer to $1 based on these numbers (current SP 58c). Also directors have been buying of late.

littletramp
31-08-2019, 04:34 PM
Revenue of $38m and net profit of $168k? I think low margin is a generous description.

silu
25-09-2019, 01:37 PM
Last week due to some portfolio reshuffling I sold some Xtek shares because quite frankly I had a lot but now they've gone gangbusters (at one stage reaching 75c) and a pause in trading today because of some news coming. Typical :(

silu
01-10-2019, 11:16 AM
Still going strong. ATHs have been beaten almost daily. Probably will be around 80c when open. After having held them for 3 years believing they were undervalued the market has finally woken up. Yet feeling a bit ill of having left so much money on the table by downsizing my big parcel. Still got a few tho so all a bit bittersweet.

duncan22
01-10-2019, 03:12 PM
Still going strong. ATHs have been beaten almost daily. Probably will be around 80c when open. After having held them for 3 years believing they were undervalued the market has finally woken up. Yet feeling a bit ill of having left so much money on the table by downsizing my big parcel. Still got a few tho so all a bit bittersweet.

If it makes you feel better, I did the same 🤦*♂️

silu
02-10-2019, 02:54 PM
If it makes you feel better, I did the same ��*♂️

Feels good to share the pain brother ;)

silu
09-10-2019, 11:39 AM
The uptrend is relentless. Currently up to 94c and never felt more ill having been proven right.

silu
06-07-2020, 11:42 AM
When it goes up it goes down and currently up again on very good news. After 4 years of accumulating this imo is still very much an undervalued stock. Revenue forecast for FY20 = Market Cap. Funny that.

silu
06-09-2022, 07:37 AM
I've done surprisingly well trading this micro cap despite being an illiquid stock. Never pushing big volumes to wipe out whole lines just nibbling along the line. Have recently topped up at 26c and 38c to ride a little wave after it's recent big contract wins and good annual result announcement.

Revenue more than doubled
Gross margin increased to 47%
NPAT of $8.2m

Reasons why I will hold for the foreseeable future:
Company will announce capital management strategy as they have lots of cash
They will pay down all debt in 2023
25m of tax losses not yet realized
Increased spending on defense by Australia, Japan, Europe etc
77% of 2022 revenue ($45m) already booked in orders for 2023
Pipeline of leads worth over $100m

All that for a MC of $41m (at 40.5c). Yes this won't trade at standard PE multiples as it doesn't really have recurring revenue streams but with prudent capital management and big contract wins there are some nice gains to be made in my view.

percy
19-09-2022, 04:44 PM
I've done surprisingly well trading this micro cap despite being an illiquid stock. Never pushing big volumes to wipe out whole lines just nibbling along the line. Have recently topped up at 26c and 38c to ride a little wave after it's recent big contract wins and good annual result announcement.

Revenue more than doubled
Gross margin increased to 47%
NPAT of $8.2m

Reasons why I will hold for the foreseeable future:
Company will announce capital management strategy as they have lots of cash
They will pay down all debt in 2023
25m of tax losses not yet realized
Increased spending on defense by Australia, Japan, Europe etc
77% of 2022 revenue ($45m) already booked in orders for 2023
Pipeline of leads worth over $100m

All that for a MC of $41m (at 40.5c). Yes this won't trade at standard PE multiples as it doesn't really have recurring revenue streams but with prudent capital management and big contract wins there are some nice gains to be made in my view.

I bought in today at 40.5 cps.
Exciting business .

silu
20-09-2022, 11:44 AM
I bought in today at 40.5 cps.
Exciting business .

Good timing. Wiped out some lines and popped nicely up to 45c this morning.

percy
21-09-2022, 11:19 AM
From Stockhead.

Xtek (ASX:XTE) started off in the game of drones, supplying and servicing unmanned aerial vehicles to the military.

But the company’s real oomph comes via an acquired Ohio-based enterprise that develops and sells high strength, lightweight body armour and ballistic helmets to defence and police forces.

Xtek reported a doubling of revenue to $58.2 million, with a $5.7 million reported profit compared with a previous $4m loss. The order book stands at $45 million.

The clincher is that Xtek has a net cash balance of $34.6 million and its market cap hovers around $39m. With an imminent outbreak of peace unlikely, that’s a lot of bang.

DarkHorse
22-09-2022, 08:58 PM
The FY22 $5.7m reported profit ($8.2m excluding non-cash impairment) includes HY1 loss of $6.8m (-$4.3m excl impairment).

So by my calculation that's a HY2 NPAT of $11.9m! Order book suggests next HY will be similar.

Totally new management team lead by Scott Basham (who owns 250K shares), same guy who did wonders with AVA, which stripped away unprofitable products/services to focus on body armour as Percy mentioned. I highly recommend the Eureka Report interview here,https://www.xtek.net/news-and-media. Billion $ TAM.

Conclusion:
1. Business prospects :t_up:
2. Management :t_up:
3. Valuation :t_up::t_up::t_up:

I bought heaps last week as a long term investment.

percy
26-09-2022, 01:15 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02572453-3A603050?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

silu
19-10-2022, 12:17 PM
Looking good at the moment. XTE's performance has made sure that my portfolio has gone up in value over the last 2 months which ain't too bad in this climate. Serious re-rate could happen in an instant should we get another large order. Let's not forget that many countries have sent body armour and helmets to the Ukraine so their own stock pile needs replenishing at some stage (incl NZ).

percy
25-11-2022, 03:01 PM
Going from today's agm presentation XTE looks to be going ballistically.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02603573-3A608067?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sideshow Bob
27-11-2022, 07:36 PM
Going from today's agm presentation XTE looks to be going ballistically.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02603573-3A608067?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Bought an XS parcel a few months ago.

Going well. Closed at $0.60 Friday, $0.36 of cash per share in the bank, with strong orders going forward.

I especially like this part: "We appear well on track to another record set of stellar full year results".

silu
29-11-2022, 07:51 AM
Bulletproof vests save lives
14357

silu
01-12-2022, 10:29 AM
Nice XTEK Receives Defence A$26.9m New SUAS Order
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20221201/02606785.pdf?uid=03B64ED9EDBBE27E93A43C601550B3B61 E1D00004B7EB1A430ECE540093D250091850000&ppv=

It's not high-margin product but we do make good money on service and spare parts.

Sideshow Bob
01-12-2022, 11:42 AM
Nice XTEK Receives Defence A$26.9m New SUAS Order
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20221201/02606785.pdf?uid=03B64ED9EDBBE27E93A43C601550B3B61 E1D00004B7EB1A430ECE540093D250091850000&ppv=

It's not high-margin product but we do make good money on service and spare parts.

Nice!!

Just now need the NZ Defense Force to spend their $3.50 budget with XTEK.......:mellow:

silu
01-12-2022, 12:24 PM
Nice!!

Just now need the NZ Defense Force to spend their $3.50 budget with XTEK.......:mellow:

Apparently we do need more ballistic armor as we have shipped quite a few to the Ukraine running our stockpile low.

percy
05-12-2022, 07:46 AM
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/2m892sa2nEPCQ0Tbsadcx14g/KhuSbpI1n76OBjIvyHvwnQ

percy
15-12-2022, 02:16 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02613032-3A609668?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sideshow Bob
24-01-2023, 09:56 AM
Closed at a 12-month high yesterday.

12 month chart is a beautiful thing.....

percy
31-01-2023, 11:00 AM
XTEK will exceed earlier advice of A$47m for H1 FY23 when accounts are released in February 2023 and it continues
to expect to deliver revenues of more than $82m, with five months still to run, for the full year.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02625963-3A611732?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Muse
31-01-2023, 11:05 AM
missed this when it started getting traction, dithered and delayed, got to anxious to buy in, and continue to be disappointed with my lack of action.

a very good performer well done to you investors

Sideshow Bob
31-01-2023, 12:43 PM
XTEK will exceed earlier advice of A$47m for H1 FY23 when accounts are released in February 2023 and it continues
to expect to deliver revenues of more than $82m, with five months still to run, for the full year.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02625963-3A611732?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Thanks for sharing Percy. Always good to get some money out of the (Australian) government.

That is at least a 40% increase in revenue for the current year.

Had a good run lately, but based on last years figures, still trading at a fraction under 13 PE. Would have to think a good chunk of the increased revenue would flow to the bottom line......

percy
31-01-2023, 12:56 PM
Thanks for sharing Percy. Always good to get some money out of the (Australian) government.

That is at least a 40% increase in revenue for the current year.

Had a good run lately, but based on last years figures, still trading at a fraction under 13 PE. Would have to think a good chunk of the increased revenue would flow to the bottom line......

Market Screener are forecasting revenue of $83.9mil.
eps 2022 were 6 cents,forecast this year 2023 11 cents [up 83%], and next year 16 cents [up 45%]..
I have no reason to disagree with them,which means a lot more fun for us.
So eps growth of 83% and 45% gives and average yearly growth of 64%.
So do we look at a PE of half that growth say 32,'or a quarter of that growth say 16.
So a PE of 32 times 2024 eps of 16 gives a share price of $5.12
A PE of 16 gives $2.56 and a PE of 8 gives a share price of $1.28.
At current PE of 11.67 the 16eps would give a share price of $1.86.
A case of choose your PE...??....lol.

silu
31-01-2023, 01:34 PM
missed this when it started getting traction, dithered and delayed, got to anxious to buy in, and continue to be disappointed with my lack of action.

a very good performer well done to you investors

The share price may stay a bit depressed for a while longer until former Chairman Uwe Boettcher has sold his shares (currently down to 10%).

percy
27-02-2023, 10:48 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02636455-3A613656?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02636486-3A613671?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4


Oh dear,the market was expecting more.?
.

Sideshow Bob
27-02-2023, 12:00 PM
Hammered down 12.5% this morning, so clearly the market was expecting more.....

However, with NPAT for 6 months at $6.2m, earnings approx 6cps for the 6 months. Keep that momentum, earnings 12cps for the FY, then PE becomes about 5.5. :mellow:

percy
27-02-2023, 12:19 PM
I thought it was a great result.
Current assets 5 times current liabilities.
Stock level up with out borrowing is a big positive.
Strong out look too.

silu
28-02-2023, 02:21 PM
I'm confused about the price action. I can't explain the big drop at all.

percy
28-02-2023, 04:41 PM
I'm confused about the price action. I can't explain the big drop at all.

Neither can I...

caenix
01-03-2023, 10:56 AM
They are guiding $82m revenue for FY23, implying $33.5m for H2, which is lower than the $48.5m H1 revenue. I guess some people think the company just had their best period?
Though the guidance can quickly upgrade if they get a new contract. Just the nature of their contract based business and lumpy income.
Personally I think XTE is in the right business for the foreseeable future and Poland is the right place to expand. The contracts will come sooner or later.

Possibly trading sideways above 50c until further business development.
14491

silu
01-03-2023, 12:25 PM
2 or 3 decades ago I worked for a company that provided services to armed forces. One thing I remember is that it took ages to finally get a purchase order approved. They will come as I can't see how countries like ours that have provided ballistic armour to the Ukraine cannot replace their diminished stock pile. It will take just time.

Sideshow Bob
01-03-2023, 02:10 PM
Interesting how they can ramp up their business so quick. FY22 turnover was $28.3m and they did 50% more than that in the first half of 2023.

$82m forecasted revenue for the year, and still almost 3x FY22.

However they have diminished their cash pile from $36.2m down to $7m.........

DarkHorse
03-03-2023, 05:22 PM
Interesting how they can ramp up their business so quick. FY22 turnover was $28.3m and they did 50% more than that in the first half of 2023.

$82m forecasted revenue for the year, and still almost 3x FY22.

However they have diminished their cash pile from $36.2m down to $7m.........

That was no surprise due to advance payment. Looking incredibly cheap again.

Sideshow Bob
07-03-2023, 02:11 PM
That was no surprise due to advance payment. Looking incredibly cheap again.

Thanks DH.

Yes, looking to top up soon.....

percy
01-05-2023, 09:17 AM
From Stockhead this morning;
“The Defence Strategic Review is the biggest Australia has seen since World War II and while it is still early days I think there certainly will be opportunities for Australian companies,” Wulff said.

“We’ve got a lot of innovative companies listed on the ASX working in the defence sector from Droneshield to XTEK positioned to work with the Federal Government and ADF to improve the country’s defence capabilities for the future.”


We are in the right company,in the right sector at the right time.
[3 rights, so looks alright.]

silu
01-05-2023, 01:25 PM
Regal really depressing our share price with their incessant selling. They still have 8m shares and they basically sell 1m/month. I was really hoping that we could have found a willing buyer for their parcel instead of depressing the share price with on-market sales.

I expect several big contracts from the ADF coming in for Xtek in the near future. Also hoping that our polish sales office can soon celebrate a big contract win. Our collaboration with TATA might no bear fruit in the short-term me thinks. The wheels of army procurement are slow.

Market cap of approx 43m with revenues of 48.5m last year. There is big upside potential.

DarkHorse
01-05-2023, 07:17 PM
I share your sentiment on Regal.
FY23 forecast sales c $84m, EBITDA $13m and NPAT $9.2m, $11.7m net cash - EV/EBITDA <3 for a company that now has excellent management and good business prospects.

percy
02-05-2023, 08:23 PM
XTEK (ASX:XTE) is a Defence industry company operating as two distinct divisions – ballistics and technology. The ballistics division is based on its “HighCom Armor” brand and is focused on designing, manufacturing and supplying global military, law enforcement and first responder customers with personal protection ballistic products.

XTE’s cutting edge military tech division supplies UAV and UGV solutions, detection and optical payloads, 3D mapping and modelling software along with tactical situation awareness software.

XTE counts the the Australian Defence Force among its customers.

Wulff said it’s another company that could be in line to benefit from the Defence Strategic Review.

“The review places XTE in the prime position to work with the ADF to achieve the key point in the review of lifting capacity to introduce disruptive new tech into ADF capability, in close partnership with Australian industry, given XTE’s existing infrastructure and operational capacity,” she said.

She said the H1 FY23 for XTE delivered very strong results compared to the prior-corresponding-period (PCP). Revenue exceeded Bell Potter guidance at $48.5m, up 321% on PCP.

“The company has also recently experienced gross margin improvement, up 27.1% on the PCP, as revenue in the first half was largely driven by higher margin sales in the ballistics division,” she said.

“Given XTEK’s existing contract with the ADF for $26.9m to supply an unspecified amount of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (SUAS), the strategic review now opens further doors for contracts to be extended and new orders to be placed.”

Sideshow Bob
03-05-2023, 07:06 AM
I share your sentiment on Regal.
FY23 forecast sales c $84m, EBITDA $13m and NPAT $9.2m, $11.7m net cash - EV/EBITDA <3 for a company that now has excellent management and good business prospects.

Makes the PE around 4.4 on yesterdays close.

Had been wondering what was depressing the shareprice.....

percy
03-05-2023, 05:13 PM
As of 31 December 2022, the Group held cash of $6.9m. The cash balance at the beginning of the
reporting period was $36.2m after receiving an advance receipt for an international order delivered
during H1 FY23. Cash payments during the reporting period were primarily used to deliver on the
major orders on hand and to increase inventory stock. Inventory stock was replenished during the
reporting period, with an increase from $16.4m (FY22) to $25.4m, in readiness for the large orders
currently under customer evaluation.
So $6.9 mil cash and stock $25.4 mil at 31st December.
The Group currently expects revenue to exceed $82m for FY23.
NTA at 31st December 2022 was 39.3 cents per share.
I added to my holding today at 38 cents per share.

percy
08-05-2023, 10:57 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02663463-3A617910?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

percy
09-05-2023, 07:47 AM
https://stockhead.com.au/this-asx-company-makes-helmets-that-can-stop-machine-gun-bullets-heres-how-it-feels-about-the-huge-australian-defence-overhaul/

Sideshow Bob
23-05-2023, 03:44 PM
Have Regal stopped selling??

Nice little bounce back in the last week.

Sideshow Bob
26-07-2023, 03:13 PM
Regal ceased to be a substantial holder last week - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02689450-3A622043?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

silu
27-07-2023, 07:40 AM
Regal ceased to be a substantial holder last week - https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02689450-3A622043?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Still got a a bit more than 4m shares left so I assume share price will be depressed at least for another 2 months. Thinking of adding more at these levels.

percy
28-07-2023, 10:38 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02691056-3A622304?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sideshow Bob
31-07-2023, 09:07 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02691056-3A622304?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Interesting update, thanks for sharing Percy.

Alot of positives, but still trading not too far off its 12 month low.

percy
31-07-2023, 09:26 AM
Interesting update, thanks for sharing Percy.

Alot of positives, but still trading not too far off its 12 month low.

The market seems to know something I do not know.
As far as I can see it is a well managed good company in a growth sector and has excellent fundamentals.?

Sideshow Bob
31-07-2023, 09:53 AM
The market seems to know something I do not know.
As far as I can see it is a well managed good company in a growth sector and has excellent fundamentals.?

It does seem that way Percy. Given the FY23 forecast, net earnings should be around 6cps, so PE less than 7. Company has a good pipeline of work, and talk about the tailwinds in the sector.

As Silu points out, Regal still have 4m more shares and presumably will divest these, but see that they've sold more than 4m in the last 3 months but also have been buying and selling along the way.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/capital-goods/asx-xte/xtek-shares/ownership

Might be like 2CC, selling volumes ease and then it takes off......maybe.

Rawz
07-08-2023, 05:17 PM
Has anyone done any work on the pipeline of potential orders vs future sales?

Just notice it seems to have steadily increased from $100m to $200m based on company announcements. IKE used to disclose closed contracts and you could work out what future revenue was based on the historical numbers. Wonder if possible to do here?

Not a holder but looks like a good opportunity here with the big shareholder
Selling down . Once that stops and new big contracts are announced it could double in price quite quickly.

I’ve never invested in a company that has lumpy sales so am a little nervous but did a quick search and the military helmet market alone is worth US$2 billion a year so surely plenty of recurring revenue to be had

X-men
07-08-2023, 05:40 PM
What happens if the Russian war end soon?

percy
07-08-2023, 07:21 PM
There is more to XTE than just supplying product to Ukraine military,although that was a very large contract..
BALLISTICS DIVISION (HIGHCOM)
Focused on designing, manufacturing, and supplying global
military, law enforcement, and first responder customers with
world-class, advanced personal protection ballistic products and
solutions for:
• Body Armour
• Ballistic Helmets
• Composite Structures
TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
Focused on manufacturing and supplying global Defence and
Security Agencies with world-leading Australian-made and
globally sourced:
• Systems – UAVs & UGVs solutions
• Sensors – Detection & Optical Payloads
• Software – 3D Mapping & Modelling SW
– Tactical Situational Awareness SW
• Support – System Integration, Training, & Service Support

Rawz
11-08-2023, 02:10 PM
This is about to rocket I reckon

Rawz
11-08-2023, 02:34 PM
The event is major fund selling down

The fundamentals is growing business trading at historic lows.

Could be a 2CC 100% in a few months type situation

Just my thoughts

Rawz
11-08-2023, 02:46 PM
If you track what they have reported as their leads/pipeline over the last few reporting periods it’s a steady increase.

Last investors presentation they said next year they expect further growth to current trend..

Imo it’s just a matter of time until the big seller is finished and this goes back towards to $1 mark

Rawz
14-08-2023, 05:48 PM
Looks like Regal has finished selling..? Not much on the sell side until 42.5 cents.

Something positive later in the month when FY is announced could send this back towards $1 mark

Sideshow Bob
15-08-2023, 08:21 AM
Looks like Regal has finished selling..? Not much on the sell side until 42.5 cents.

Something positive later in the month when FY is announced could send this back towards $1 mark

Hope you are right Rawz. Volumes have been at low levels since the start of the month. Still trading not that far off 12 month lows (34c), and well below highs.

Know there has been selling pressure from Regal, but still surprised trading at these levels, especially given their sales pipelines and forecasts. They do have 'lumpy' revenue but are trading at attractive multiples. As Percy has said, almost feel like there is something we don't know......

Rawz
15-08-2023, 09:11 AM
Hope you are right Rawz. Volumes have been at low levels since the start of the month. Still trading not that far off 12 month lows (34c), and well below highs.

Know there has been selling pressure from Regal, but still surprised trading at these levels, especially given their sales pipelines and forecasts. They do have 'lumpy' revenue but are trading at attractive multiples. As Percy has said, almost feel like there is something we don't know......

Could be a phycological thing. Like when a SP gets beaten down so much you stop buying. When previously you were happier buying at higher levels. Lucky for me ive only started buying so am really positive and happy with this stock

One big sales order announcement will change the momentum in the SP i believe.

Sideshow Bob
15-08-2023, 09:28 AM
Could be a phycological thing. Like when a SP gets beaten down so much you stop buying. When previously you were happier buying at higher levels. Lucky for me ive only started buying so am really positive and happy with this stock

One big sales order announcement will change the momentum in the SP i believe.

Agree, especially as a small cap.

2CC went from sub-30c to over 60c in 3 weeks (albeit with a positive update in there). So something similar could happen.....XTE trading on good metrics.

XTE FY ended on 30th of June, so just awaiting their results - should have their preliminary report out roughly end of the month. EBITDA recently signaled at $9-10.5m AUD, so shouldn't stray from this.

silu
15-08-2023, 10:35 AM
Xtek had the stink above its head for many years that it's only an importer relying on orders from their customers which was also at a very narrow margin. We only really made money with spare parts and after sales servicing. This has changed quite a bit with the Highcom acquisition. Also being very illiquid and of course Regal made us an unloved stock for many years trading at super low PE multiples.

I traded a few times since 2016 doing relatively well but I believe that we will see a little re-rate in the coming months. Wouldn't hurt to announce additional large orders in the meantime.

Sideshow Bob
15-08-2023, 10:42 AM
Xtek had the stink above its head for many years that it's only an importer relying on orders from their customers which was also at a very narrow margin. We only really made money with spare parts and after sales servicing. This has changed quite a bit with the Highcom acquisition. Also being very illiquid and of course Regal made us an unloved stock for many years trading at super low PE multiples.

I traded a few times since 2016 doing relatively well but I believe that we will see a little re-rate in the coming months. Wouldn't hurt to announce additional large orders in the meantime.

Thanks Silu. Good for context.

Rawz
15-08-2023, 05:36 PM
Last trade of the day took it over $0.40. 15,000 shares do not a lot but a step in the right direction

Rawz
15-08-2023, 07:12 PM
Looking at the volume traded since the last Regal SSH notice i guestimate that they have around 2.5m shares still to sell. This is assuming they are exiting their position entirely. So at todays SP of 41 cents that's $1.025m to be sold still.

Perhaps SP stays depressed until then or until full year results are released with positive outlook?

silu
22-08-2023, 07:58 AM
I thought I won't buy more until I'm certain Regal has sold their remaining shares but 37c was just too juicy to turn down. Now hoping for an even small upgrade.

Sideshow Bob
22-08-2023, 08:13 AM
Expecting preliminary FY results should be through by the end of next week.

Hopefully it should be a catalyst so something..

Rawz
22-08-2023, 12:35 PM
Expecting preliminary FY results should be through by the end of next week.

Hopefully it should be a catalyst so something..

Looking forward to it. SP can only go up from here.. i know thats a throw away line but this time its different (lol)

audiav
30-08-2023, 04:44 PM
Been very, very patient with this one. Hopefully reaching a nadir. I’ve begun buying a few (but not a barrowful). Please note, hope is not a strategy.

percy
30-08-2023, 05:23 PM
Been very, very patient with this one. Hopefully reaching a nadir. I’ve begun buying a few (but not a barrowful). Please note, hope is not a strategy.

I expect we will get XTE's result tomorrow,together with two other of my holdings,ATP and JYC.


Well ATP and JYC have had fantastic results.
Just need XTE to come up with the goods to give me the trifecta....lol

Rawz
30-08-2023, 07:02 PM
Can’t believe the SP action… looking forward to tomorrow and some good commentary about the pipeline

silu
31-08-2023, 08:30 AM
Will be interesting today what they are going to report. I obviously am in the camp that says that this is way undervalued at the moment and should move on good results and positive outlook.

Sideshow Bob
31-08-2023, 11:05 AM
May not be today, unless comes through during trading hours.

silu
31-08-2023, 12:33 PM
Just announced https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02705790-3A625041?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Rawz
31-08-2023, 12:46 PM
Looks good!

Potential M&A activity and outlook for revenue and profit to continue to grow.

percy
31-08-2023, 01:17 PM
Looks good!

Potential M&A activity and outlook for revenue and profit to continue to grow.

I may have expect more,however a very solid result.
Equity ratio now a very positive 55.3%.
Inventories up $9mil to $25.736 mil means they can deliver orders very quickly.As logistics get back to more normal inventory will reduce.
EPS of 6 cents means they are currently trading on a very modesr PE of just 6.17...Seems a bit too modest to me,considering the sector they are in.

Rawz
31-08-2023, 01:22 PM
Looking at the volume traded since the last Regal SSH notice i guestimate that they have around 2.5m shares still to sell. This is assuming they are exiting their position entirely. So at todays SP of 41 cents that's $1.025m to be sold still.

Perhaps SP stays depressed until then or until full year results are released with positive outlook?

since this post 2 weeks ago 1.24m of shares have traded... Regal got to be only a week or so away from a total exit (if thats what they are doing).
With todays outlook of continued revenue and profit growth surely we can get into a uptrend.. like Percy says this is very cheap

silu
31-08-2023, 01:28 PM
Unfortunately in an out of meetings today but they also gave an investor update https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=6461750 in which they say the total amount of opportunities in the pipepline is now $375m ($75m technology and $300m ballistics). Even if we can only get a small(ish) piece of this then the future should look bright.

Way too cheap for what it is but I've been saying this for years.

silu
31-08-2023, 02:43 PM
I expect we will get XTE's result tomorrow,together with two other of my holdings,ATP and JYC.


Well ATP and JYC have had fantastic results.
Just need XTE to come up with the goods to give me the trifecta....lol

Both moving nicely today for you. Now I need XTE to move into a similar direction.

percy
31-08-2023, 03:35 PM
FY 23 RESULT HIGHLIGHTS

Continued to execute on our Strategic Plan (reinforce success, seek adjacencies, and create our future)

Invested in our team to position ourselves to deliver into global markets

Grew pipeline of opportunities to +$375m, with multiple opportunities on foot for delivery in FY24 and beyond

Leveraged attractive sector fundamentals that continue to underpin future growth

Seeking inorganic opportunities to drive penetration into US, UK, EU markets

silu
01-09-2023, 07:10 AM
Decided that it is the market that is wrong so got myself another parcel at 37c early this week and late yesterday more at 33.5c. I might not keep that many shares for too long but me thinks it will be a great short-term play. The numbers don't lie and there will be enough investor waking up this morning, reading up on the fundamentals and decide to invest in XTE. Let's hope I'm right.

Rawz
01-09-2023, 08:51 AM
Decided that it is the market that is wrong so got myself another parcel at 37c early this week and late yesterday more at 33.5c. I might not keep that many shares for too long but me thinks it will be a great short-term play. The numbers don't lie and there will be enough investor waking up this morning, reading up on the fundamentals and decide to invest in XTE. Let's hope I'm right.

Agree.. i was wondering if Regal took the opportunity to sell more aggressively. Was decent volume traded.

Like you say the fundamentals dont lie.

Patience required

Sideshow Bob
01-09-2023, 11:19 AM
I've been nibbling away for a while.

What ido they say about buying in a downtrend......?;)

Have the large seller qutting their holding and fundamentals underpin the purchases.

But as another poster here said, it is almost like somebody knows something that we don't.....

percy
01-09-2023, 05:47 PM
https://www.xtek.net/2023/09/01/bell-potter-report-xtek-armoured-and-ready/

Sideshow Bob
07-09-2023, 05:46 PM
Closed at 32c, a 52 week low.

Sideshow Bob
08-09-2023, 01:37 PM
Closed at 32c, a 52 week low.

Wait, 30c. New low......

Rawz
08-09-2023, 02:15 PM
I'm shocked. But then should have known... what do they say- never buy in a downtrend......

DarkHorse
08-09-2023, 05:19 PM
I'm shocked. But then should have known... what do they say- never buy in a downtrend......

Back up to 34c. Very undervalued. One big deal and the trend will change instantly...

Sideshow Bob
20-09-2023, 05:44 PM
How low can it go.....

Market cap less than $28m

silu
21-09-2023, 03:29 PM
I believe Regal might be gone soon. I will know the moment I don't see a big sell dump towards the end of day.

silu
22-09-2023, 10:29 AM
An updated research report by MST has a target price of 73c. https://www.xtek.net/2023/09/21/mst-access-update-report-on-xtek-limited-xte-20-sep-23/

percy
22-09-2023, 10:41 AM
An updated research report by MST has a target price of 73c. https://www.xtek.net/2023/09/21/mst-access-update-report-on-xtek-limited-xte-20-sep-23/

I am sure they are right..??....lol.

silu
22-09-2023, 10:56 AM
I am sure they are right..??....lol.

I'd be rich if all my investments reached the target price of the brokers :)

percy
22-09-2023, 11:27 AM
I'd be rich if all my investments reached the target price of the brokers :)

So very true..lol

Rawz
29-09-2023, 02:20 PM
Key highlights:
• A$3.2m order for specialist ballistic armour products
• Second large order received this financial year
• Order allows for the further reduction in inventory to normalised levels
• New international military customer

Friday 29 September 2023. XTEK Limited (ASX: XTE, ‘XTEK’, ‘Group’) is pleased to announce that the Group’s Ballistics Division (Highcom Armor) has received a new purchase order valued at A$3.2m to supplyhigh-end ballistic body armour products to an undisclosed international military customer.Scott Basham, XTEK Group CEO, said,“Our Ballistics Division received the order on the back of its reputation for advanced manufacturing, sales and distribution capabilities across North America, Australia, and Europe. Through our Ohio and Adelaide facilitieswe design, manufacture, and supply world-leading, ultra-lightweight and high-performance ballistic armour products and solutions to military, law enforcement, and first responder customers worldwide.

This new international order, from an undisclosed military customer, worth A$3.2m, will see thousands of our advanced high-performance body armour products manufactured and shipped overseas over the coming weeksto meet this customer’s operational requirements. This order, in addition to the recently announced $2.6m order,will assist in the reduction in the inventory levels reported at the FY23 full year result.”

silu
03-10-2023, 10:40 AM
Good start to the day
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A627453/

XTEK Secures New Multi-Year SUAS Support Contract with Department of Defence of up to $110m Over 10 Years

Sideshow Bob
03-10-2023, 11:50 AM
Good start to the day
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A627453/

XTEK Secures New Multi-Year SUAS Support Contract with Department of Defence of up to $110m Over 10 Years

Nice!! Market likes it and is up 11% in the 1st hour.

Rawz
03-10-2023, 11:51 AM
Good start to the day
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A627453/

XTEK Secures New Multi-Year SUAS Support Contract with Department of Defence of up to $110m Over 10 Years

Yes excellent. SP up 10%
Potentially Regal finished selling (surely!!!) so this can get to fair value which is closer to $1 imo. All it will take is a new uptrend supported by new contract win announcements which hopefully isnt out of the equation considering they said they have a $300m pipeline was it!?

percy
03-10-2023, 12:44 PM
Excellent contract win.
Just when it looked certain we had XTE wrong,it turns out we have it right...lol

Sideshow Bob
03-10-2023, 01:05 PM
Excellent contract win.
Just when it looked certain we had XTE wrong,it turns out we have it right...lol

One swallow doesn't quite make a summer......

But a nice start.

Anyway, I didn't think you got them wrong Percy??! :p

Rawz
05-10-2023, 12:06 PM
XTEK has been running strongly since the last big contract win. Im now back in the green yay.

MST Access new report out: https://www.xtek.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MST-Access-XTE-Update-04-Oct-23.pdf

Wins add credibility to pipeline

NEED TO KNOW
− XTEK has announced that it has been awarded a 10-year $110m support contract for the small unmanned aerial systems (SUAS) it has just finished delivering to Australian Defence.
− It has also announced some small ballistics orders for international customers– important reference sites.
− These contract awards increase credibility associated with XTEK’s $375m pipeline.

XTEK has announced that it has been awarded the services and spare parts contract for the $27m SUAS order announced in Dec-22. An initial 4-year contract with 3, 2-year extensions includes services and spares and totals ~$110m. We estimate that this contract will generate gross margins of ~30%.

XTEK’s US-based Highcom business (Ballistics division) has announced the completion of one ($2.6m), and award of another ($3.2m) small personnel protection contracts with unnamed international customers.

The $375m weighted pipeline is difficult to reference given the lack of historical pipeline conversion rates. These announcements build credibility around the efficacy of the pipeline

Valuation
Our forecasts and valuation remain unchanged from our previously published report in September. We estimate a 12-month forward value for XTEK based on capitalising FY25 EBITDA at a discounted market multiple. Our valuation is $0.73 per share with upside to forecasts and valuation will come as the Company proves up pipeline conversion. It is worth noting that cash at bank at 30 June 2023 ($7m) added to the estimated $10m of surplus inventory (that management expect could be released by 31 Dec 2023) approximately equals half the market cap. And adding this to the ~$20m of value from the SUAS support contract ($2m NPAT p.a capitalised at 10x) gives a value similar to the current market cap.

Sideshow Bob
05-10-2023, 02:13 PM
As someone said, if only the broker valuations always came true......

Rawz
05-10-2023, 02:56 PM
As someone said, if only the broker valuations always came true......

Yes true. and that is paid research so need to keep that in mind.

But none the less the current P/E is 6 and the main point the report was saying is their much talked about $300m+ pipeline has more credibility if you like.
At valuation of $0.73 is still going to be trading on low double digits P/E. Not an unfair valuation imo.

Sideshow Bob
05-10-2023, 03:01 PM
Yes true. and that is paid research so need to keep that in mind.

But none the less the current P/E is 6 and the main point the report was saying is their much talked about $300m+ pipeline has more credibility if you like.
At valuation of $0.73 is still going to be trading on low double digits P/E. Not an unfair valuation imo.

Thanks Rawz.

More a commentary on brokers and their valuations rather than XTEK and their prospects. Noted paid research......

silu
06-10-2023, 02:35 PM
As someone said, if only the broker valuations always came true......

Ha that was me but yeah I'm a big believer in soon getting great returns on my investment.

silu
09-10-2023, 12:04 PM
Someone on HC posted that apparently Regal sold their remaining shares and are totally gone now. Which might explain the little rise today so far.

Rawz
09-10-2023, 12:09 PM
name change

Highlights
• Proposed name change from XTEK Limited to HighCom Limited
• Shareholders to vote on name change at AGM on 23 November 23 Monday, 9 October 2023:

XTEK Limited (ASX: XTE, ‘XTEK’, ‘Group’) provides the following market update with respect to a proposed name change to HighCom Limited.Following the significant changes and growth of the business over the last two years, the Group now proposesto take the next step in the evolution of the business and will seek shareholder approval at the upcoming Annual General Meeting on 23 November 2023, to change the name from XTEK Limited to HighCom Limited andamend the Company Constitution accordingly. The Group expects the new ASX ticker code will be HCL.

The Board believe that this name change is an important and necessary step. It will better reflect the long-termvalue creation potential for shareholders now being generated by the Group’s “HighCom” ballistic armour brand, through its increasingly successful commercial business operations with Military, Law Enforcement Agencies, and Government customers, in the US and around the world.

Accordingly, the Board believes that by aligning the ASX listed parent company name with the US andInternational subsidiary names it best positions and unifies the Group for its next exciting stage of growth and global expansion.

The Group intends to retain the current two operating divisional structure, with the Technology Division being simply called “HighCom Technology” moving forward and focus its efforts on the sales and maintenance support services of Small Uncrewed Arial Systems (SUAS).

The Technology Division business continues to be an important revenue generating part of the Group’s overall operations, especially after having just signed a 10-year, potential $110m+ Support Contract with the Australian Department of Defence, and the Group will continue to maintain this small, dynamic, and highly capable team collocated with its corporate headquarters in Canberra, ACT.

Sideshow Bob
10-10-2023, 09:11 AM
Interesting proposition. Don't really see the point myself, unless to get away from 'history' and a rebrand and name change part of that. Certainly trying to divorce itself from its terrible long-term share performance.....

silu
10-10-2023, 09:49 AM
Interesting proposition. Don't really see the point myself, unless to get away from 'history' and a rebrand and name change part of that. Certainly trying to divorce itself from its terrible long-term share performance.....

Many moons ago I worked for a company that had licensed a well known brand name for one of it's products which the German Army wanted. It took a long time to get the official purchase order because their system had us in it as 'brand name' and not the actual company I worked for meaning long delays. Long story short - never underestimate the stupidity of army procurement.

Rawz
10-10-2023, 03:03 PM
very good gains continuing... up 6% so far today. Ive said it before- a very good chance we get into a nice uptrend here supported by the usual Highcom contract announcements and it being highly likely that Regal have finished selling so nothing to hold the SP back.

Recent conflict in the middle east potentially adds further demand. I read Israel could be mobilising 100,000 troops!! Thats a lot of armored vests..

percy
12-10-2023, 12:24 PM
Another order and XTcave manufacturing to move to USA.Both positiev.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724275-3A628150?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724268-3A628148?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724268-3A628148?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Sideshow Bob
12-10-2023, 01:01 PM
Another order and XTcave manufacturing to move to USA.Both positiev.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724275-3A628150?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724268-3A628148?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02724268-3A628148?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

More runs on the board......:)

Rawz
12-10-2023, 02:23 PM
in the update they say they are negotiating multiple similar sized orders and some large ones which if comes in would wipe out their current inventory. At half year they had $25m and have sold about $5m ish so thats another $20m at least

all looking very good with market cap sitting on $40m

Rawz
13-10-2023, 08:49 PM
Sell side thinning out.. Regal gone and all the weak hands with them.

Each new order announcement is going to be more fuel for the fire under the SP. momentum is a wonderful thing

percy
16-10-2023, 10:26 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02725449-3A628364?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

silu
16-10-2023, 10:32 AM
Looks as if it's ready to pop.

percy
16-10-2023, 10:38 AM
Looks as if it's ready to pop.

We are "well positioned"..lol

Sideshow Bob
16-10-2023, 11:47 AM
Pumping out the (price sensitive) announcements faster that Chris Castle and Chatham Rock....... :p

Although todays announcement is more of a recap of recent announcements rather than anything new? Or have I missed something? Regardless the market likes it - trading at $0.48c.....!! :t_up:

Just wishing had bought more at 27c!! :laugh:

Rawz
16-10-2023, 12:00 PM
Pumping out the (price sensitive) announcements faster that Chris Castle and Chatham Rock....... :p

Although todays announcement is more of a recap of recent announcements rather than anything new? Or have I missed something? Regardless the market likes it - trading at $0.48c.....!! :t_up:

Just wishing had bought more at 27c!! :laugh:

Its trading so cheap with P/E of 6-7..
$6.9m cash in the bank, no debt and market cap is $44m.

Good move to remind the market where the company is at and where it is going:

"Based on current sales and business development activity being
progressed around the world, and the continued tailwinds for the sector,
the Group is positive about maintaining continued revenue growth and
profitability in FY24."

Rawz
16-10-2023, 12:06 PM
ive had so much success with micro caps of late, think i might just stick with them. I enjoy researching and investing in them as well

Rawz
18-10-2023, 11:47 AM
Another one!

Azza
18-10-2023, 01:05 PM
How good!!

Sideshow Bob
18-10-2023, 03:28 PM
Back up over 50c.....:)

Not far off doubling in price in a month.

Rawz
18-10-2023, 05:57 PM
Back up over 50c.....:)

Not far off doubling in price in a month.

Another 50% gain to go and we are only at the 52 week high

Lots of upside potential to go here.

Solid hold for next 12-18 months I reckon

DarkHorse
18-10-2023, 08:19 PM
Agreed. Happy to see a large holding finally bounce back - and plenty of upside and limited risk on 5X fwd PE with $10m cash. Very well- managed by Scott Basham too.

Sideshow Bob
19-10-2023, 07:21 AM
Another 50% gain to go and we are only at the 52 week high

Lots of upside potential to go here.

Solid hold for next 12-18 months I reckon

Price has rebounded, presumably as Regal have finished selling - but surprised over recent times how it kept heading south, and to the levels it got to, despite the annual result and the positive developments. I was starting to second guess that there was something didn't know or had missed......

But would be interesting to know Regal's thought process around their holding and selling out. It must have been well signaled that they were selling down, and expect not that easy to sell a decent chunk of a reasonably small/illiquid company on market.

I'd be interested in where they are putting their funds out of XTE, and what is a more compelling investment when they were seemingly driving the price lower to get out.

Rawz
19-10-2023, 08:12 AM
Price has rebounded, presumably as Regal have finished selling - but surprised over recent times how it kept heading south, and to the levels it got to, despite the annual result and the positive developments. I was starting to second guess that there was something didn't know or had missed......

But would be interesting to know Regal's thought process around their holding and selling out. It must have been well signaled that they were selling down, and expect not that easy to sell a decent chunk of a reasonably small/illiquid company on market.

I'd be interested in where they are putting their funds out of XTE, and what is a more compelling investment when they were seemingly driving the price lower to get out.

This last week I've been asking myself why I didn't load up sub 30cent after my initial investment at 38 cents. There was a day when 2million shares changed hands and I said to myself that's Regal done and it will only be up from here. But yet I didn't load up. Strange how emotions work.

Anyways I'm up 30% in 2 months so beggars can't be choosers.

Sideshow Bob
19-10-2023, 08:26 AM
This last week I've been asking myself why I didn't load up sub 30cent after my initial investment at 38 cents. There was a day when 2million shares changed hands and I said to myself that's Regal done and it will only be up from here. But yet I didn't load up. Strange how emotions work.

Anyways I'm up 30% in 2 months so beggars can't be choosers.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.....or not. It is interesting to look back and take lessons from it though.

I'd never sneeze at 30% in 2 months. Nice. :cool:

percy
19-10-2023, 10:28 AM
This last week I've been asking myself why I didn't load up sub 30cent after my initial investment at 38 cents. There was a day when 2million shares changed hands and I said to myself that's Regal done and it will only be up from here. But yet I didn't load up. Strange how emotions work.

Anyways I'm up 30% in 2 months so beggars can't be choosers.

I remember reading years ago Warren Buffett said he achieved 6 out 10 investments correctly.
I have got used to making mistakes..!!!!....lol.

NZSilver
19-10-2023, 02:28 PM
This is one I have had on my watchlist for many years, I watched it run up last time and let it go and have been keenly interested since it fell back down recently - but wasn't sure how low it will go. The recent spate of announcements has given me more confidence that we are in a upward cycle for xtes products and the next several years will be very good for the company, I also like managements slight change in tack. My order got filled this morning so I'm finally a shareholder.

Rawz
20-10-2023, 02:42 AM
This is one I have had on my watchlist for many years, I watched it run up last time and let it go and have been keenly interested since it fell back down recently - but wasn't sure how low it will go. The recent spate of announcements has given me more confidence that we are in a upward cycle for xtes products and the next several years will be very good for the company, I also like managements slight change in tack. My order got filled this morning so I'm finally a shareholder.

Yes next few years will be exciting to watch. The good thing is when the growth continues we will see multiple expansion as well.

Currently trading on a P/E of 8.25 but with the growth we are seeing should be high teens!!

Rawz
20-10-2023, 08:21 AM
There is an article in the NZ Herald today talking about how National/ACT and NZ First all agree that defence spending needs to increase to combat China.

ACT wanting to increase our spending to 2% of GDP which is the NATO benchmark.

Drones are clearly a big part of the battlefield now and XTEK are the agents for one make of them in ANZ. Recently a sale and then follow up huge service contract was done with the Australian defence force. If the NZ defence force gets into drones one would think they would follow Australias choice of drone which could be very good for XTEK.

percy
24-10-2023, 03:25 PM
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https:/www.xtek.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/MST-Access-XTE-Update-19-Oct-23.pdf__;!!PUVePWy_yMB-Yi4!GGYzV2f31lrPyhVmEYiSItTZvXfWZj_XT5FV-SCZORCKWAsu37cUnJ9YLrz4eSFaCehF72aN-T188RAwiu_anz57Evw$

Move to Ohio targets US contracts
NEED TO KNOW
− XTEK is targeting US Defence contracts with the moving
of its XTclave manufacturing plant from Adelaide to the
US, as well as cost savings.
− The Company has also recorded its third small Ballistics
protection equipment order in FY24 – all building
XTEK’s credibility for potentially larger contracts.
− Numbers for the full year starting to come together with
revenue, working capital and cost savings
XTEK’s XTclave-based lightweight helmets and body armour is well positioned
for a US Special Ops contract, but products needs to be manufactured in the US.
Moving XTclave to the US will help as well as save $2m pa.
XTEK now has nearly $10m of Ballistics sales to international customers so far
in FY24 following the recent $1.6m order. Management is confident of further
near-term orders which should help with winning some of the larger supply orders
in its $300m pipeline in Ballistics.
These announcements support our FY24 forecasts with the XTclave move to the
US saving ~$2m p.a. (costing $0.8m in FY24), and the consistent international
orders supporting our revenue and working capital forecasts as well as
probability of winning larger international ballistics orders.
Investment Thesis
Geopolitical instability is driving strong growth in defence budgets
Countries are adding defence personnel and refreshing personal ballistics
protection. High levels of gun violence in the US create ongoing demand from a
wide range of enforcement agencies.
XTEK has proven capability in delivering quality products and service to
Australian Defence, US agencies and more recently international customers.
XTclave is XTEK’s proprietary technology that provides lightweight armour
and helmets. We expect it will be a significant contributor to value in coming years.
Valuation
Our earnings forecasts increase slightly with revenue growth offset by lower
margins in the Technology segment. We estimate a 12-month forward value for
XTEK based on capitalising FY25 EBITDA at a discounted market multiple. Our
valuation is $0.73 per share is unchanged with slightly higher earnings offset by
a slightly lower market multiple.
Risks
Key risks include an inability to replicate the large international orders that it
recorded in 2022, reduction in the contracts it wins with Australian Defence,
failure to be able to ramp up cost-effective production of its XTclave based
helmets and body armour, increased competition in the US law enforcement
market and loss of share and being unable to shift the US sales channel away
from white-label sales.
Equities Research Australia
Industrial Sector
Andrew Johnston, Senior Analyst
andrew.johnston@mstaccess.com.au
Noah Hunt, Associate Analyst
noah.hunt@mstaccess.com.au
XTEK provides front-line equipment for defence and law
enforcement personnel. It manufactures body armour and
helmets and has exclusive agency agreements for
distribution of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles from
which it has also built a service and support business.
XTEK has also developed an innovative technology
(XTclave) for use in body armour and helmets that it is now
commercialising. It has operations in Australia and the US,
but also has an international sales presence.
https://www.xtek.net/
Valuation $0.73 (unchanged)
Current price $0.48
Market cap $49m
Cash on hand $7m
Additional resources
Video Link - Interview with CEO (13 October 2023)

NZSilver
24-10-2023, 05:52 PM
thanks percy

NZSilver
03-11-2023, 01:17 PM
Good volumes today ����

Rawz
03-11-2023, 05:50 PM
Good volumes today ����

Cracked 50cents as well. Good trend starting to form

silu
06-11-2023, 10:50 AM
Cracked 50cents as well. Good trend starting to form

Was a little bit miffed having sold SKT.NZ shares just before they got their unsolicited takeover offer but then realized I bought more XTE at 32c with that money. I think we will go through a period of consolidation before hopefully more contracts are announced and a SP closer to 80c.

Rawz
06-11-2023, 12:55 PM
Was a little bit miffed having sold SKT.NZ shares just before they got their unsolicited takeover offer but then realized I bought more XTE at 32c with that money. I think we will go through a period of consolidation before hopefully more contracts are announced and a SP closer to 80c.

there is a lot to like. Company commentary is profit growth and with it trading on a low P/E multiple of 8 odd we are looking good for EPS increasing and multiple expansion. I.e. this can trade double digit P/E easy.

A nice hold for the next couple of years i reckon with all the geo-political stuff going on and XTEK moving its operations over to the states. Should see continued growth or takeover is my guess.

NZSilver
07-11-2023, 01:00 PM
Contract wins will drive SP on the short term, EPS in the medium to long term. Sign some more contracts.

Rawz
08-11-2023, 08:34 AM
Contract wins will drive SP on the short term, EPS in the medium to long term. Sign some more contracts.

They have their $300 million pipeline which the market is giving more and more credit to as each contract announcement is made.

NZSilver
08-11-2023, 06:14 PM
Pipelines or Potential contracts I take those figures with a grain of salt. Signed orders is what I want to see.

Rawz
09-11-2023, 07:04 AM
Over $1billion US$ in armored vests are sold each year Silver. I dont think the market has quite caught onto the potential XTEK has. The move to the US shows the confidence they have in taking more of the pie.

No debt, cash on the balance sheet. Trading below 10 p/e. Huge GEO political issues in the world. Armies restocking.

Its a nice hold for the next 18-24 months imo. Happy to see where it goes and hope it doesnt get taken over before true value is reflected in the SP

percy
09-11-2023, 07:45 AM
A research paper out has the following.
............................2023.................. ...2024.....................2025.
Revenue................$89.5mil..................$ 94.6mil..............$101.5mil
NPAT......................$6.1mil................. ..$.8.9mil................$9.8mil
EPS.........................6cents................ ......8.7cents.............9.6cents
eps growth................................45%......... .............10.3%

Rawz
09-11-2023, 08:56 AM
thanks Percy

If they continue to sign more contracts as Silver wants from their $300m pipeline (or is it $350m now??) the uptrend will be set.
Then if they hit that FY25 eps broker target of 9.6eps you could easily see multiple growth from current 8pe to 16 pe which would put the SP at:

9.6eps*16pe= $1.53 share price. or roughly 3x todays price.

A few months ago i read on HC some poster talking about XTEK peers in the industry all trading on high teens+ p/e multiples...

percy
09-11-2023, 09:50 AM
I followed this link from a post on HC.
https://henslow.com/news/research/xtek/

Rawz
09-11-2023, 10:18 AM
I followed this link from a post on HC.
https://henslow.com/news/research/xtek/

thanks for sharing Percy. It makes for very good reading as a holder lol

percy
09-11-2023, 01:27 PM
.
strawman Interview with Group CEO, Scott Basham | 7 Nov 23 | XTEK Limited
Hope it comes up when you google it.
https://www.xtek.net/2022/11/10/strawman-video-interview-with-group-ceo-scott-basham/

silu
09-11-2023, 02:48 PM
Nice report. Good to see the shareholder range as well. I'm likely in the Top 200 lol.

Sideshow Bob
10-11-2023, 07:56 AM
I followed this link from a post on HC.
https://henslow.com/news/research/xtek/

Always knew you were a professional Percy!! :)

percy
10-11-2023, 08:17 AM
I loved how Scott said they had tripled revenue in the past 2 years and should triple it again in the next 3 years.
About the most exciting presentation I have watched..


PS.Sideshow Bob.
I admit I did a bit of a Trump..

pps.It really worked...lol

silu
13-11-2023, 11:51 AM
New $4.1m SUAS Spare Parts Order Received From Defence
Key highlights:
• New $4.1m SUAS Spare Parts order received from Defence
• Order is part of the new multi-year Support Contract announced on 3 October 2023
• Support Contract directly linked to $26.9m new drone fleet order announced on 1 December 2022

https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/xte.asx-3A630608/

percy
15-11-2023, 02:00 PM
Strawman interview with Scott Basham.
Great interview..


https://www.xtek.net/2022/11/10/strawman-video-interview-with-group-ceo-scott-basham/

NZSilver
16-11-2023, 06:27 PM
Yes listened to this, it was quite good and I definitely got a better understanding of certain aspects of the business..most notably they are a re-seller of the drones in Australia and they have 1 customer being the Australian armed forces. Hence the reason for the push on their helmets/body armour as it is truly their own ip, this area has a lot higher potential margins and a significantly bigger market with almost continuous type order potential. Drone segment is a multi year contracts where the make 15% margin for the drones and then better margins for servicing/fixing them up but it is truly a "side hustle" in comparison to the armour divisions potential. Also a few good insights into Ohio move and potential DOD customers who currently are interested and have even give grants to xtek but can't purchase their gear until they are fully manafactured in the US. Scott also talked in-organice growth via aquisitions and it sounds like they will be very disciplined in making a purchase and have already looked over a few and "stepped aside" in his words after they weren't quite right - good to know they are being very careful here.

DarkHorse
16-11-2023, 08:12 PM
From Livewire's recent profile of 5 companies which bucked the recent downtrend in small and micro-cap ASX companies:

(4) Xtek Limited (ASX: XTE)
Xtek Group operates two divisions: (1) Ballistics Division; and (2) Technology Division. The Ballistics Division designs, manufactures and supplies global military, law enforcement and first responders with advanced personal protection ballistic products and solutions for body armour, ballistic helmets and composite armour structures. The Technology Division manufactures and supplies global defence and security agencies with uncrewed systems and sensor payloads, and Australia-made software and local support.
During the month, Xtek announced they had secured a support contract from the Commonwealth of Australia’s Department of Defence to maintain and sustain the $26.9 million newly acquired fleet of small unmanned aerial systems (SUAS) from Xtek. The initial 4 year term is valued at $15.9 million with a further $29 million anticipated to be realised during the contract period. If all extensions are awarded (up to six years), and potential spares are used, the total contract value over the 10 year life of the contract is anticipated to be more than $110 million.
The Company delivered record revenues in FY23. In an investor update in October, the Company highlighted that the Group had a pipeline of leads at various stages worth more than $375 million, primarily driven by the Ballistics Division with the Company forecasting continued revenue growth in FY24. Ongoing uncertainty in Europe and continuing tensions in the South China Sea and those developing in the Middle East is expected to drive short-and-long term supply demand and strategic investment to upgrade with next generation products and solutions.
At the date of this report, consensus estimates are forecasting a 5% increase in revenue in FY24 with a 43.3% increase in normalised EPS.

DarkHorse
16-11-2023, 08:14 PM
Not too shabby EPS growth for a company on a PE of 5 with $10mill in the bank.

silu
20-11-2023, 10:31 AM
Keep them coming and make a mockery of the depressed share price

XTEK's HighCom Receives New A2.8m Ballistic Armour Order
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02741930-3A631139?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

percy
20-11-2023, 10:38 AM
Keep them coming and make a mockery of the depressed share price

XTEK's HighCom Receives New A2.8m Ballistic Armour Order
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02741930-3A631139?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

I topped up on Friday @ au.4591 cents,[thanks to Craigs Dunedin].

Rawz
20-11-2023, 10:47 AM
Key highlights:
• New order from undisclosed international customer worth A$2.8m
• Many thousands of individual ballistic armour products to be supplied over coming weeks
• Continues to engage closely with customers in global hotspots on multiple deals

Monday, 20 November 2023. XTEK Limited (ASX:XTE, ‘XTEK’, ‘Group’) is pleased to announce that itsHighCom Armor Solutions Inc. (HighCom) business has received a new order valued at A$2.8m to supply its high-end ballistic body armour products to an undisclosed international customer.

Scott Basham, XTEK Group CEO, said, “XTEK’s global armour business, HighCom, continues to win material new orders from militaries, law enforcement, and first responder customers all around the world, for its ultra lightweight and high-performance specialist ballistic armour products and solutions.This order, from an undisclosed international customer, which is valued at A$2.8m, is a testament to the hard work and professionalism of our US and International teams, who continue to be highly engaged with customers in global hotspots who are seeking to rapidly acquire large quantities of advanced high-end body armour.The many thousands of individual items included in this order will be shipped to the end user in multiple batches, with the first coming initially from inventory, and then the remainder being produced over the coming weeks.”

Rawz
20-11-2023, 10:48 AM
Golden cross coming up in due course... all looking good for a nice run over the next year or so. Im 'well positioned' with XTEK a top holding of mine

silu
20-11-2023, 11:00 AM
Also by far my biggest holding. The only purchase I made over current SP was at a SPP at 69c in 2020. Latest buys at 0.26, 0.33, 0.37 & 0.38. The uphill chase is way more productive.

Rawz
23-11-2023, 01:54 PM
Does anyone have a link to the AGM about to kick off at 3pm?

percy
23-11-2023, 01:56 PM
Does anyone have a link to the AGM about to kick off at 3pm?

Sorry I have not been able to find one.
This has just appeared on ASX site.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02744237-3A631562?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Rawz
23-11-2023, 02:02 PM
Sorry I have not been able to find one.
This has just appeared on ASX site.
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02744237-3A631562?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Thanks, bit hard to attend from NZ lol. Although I was in Aussie last week for work, if it was this week I would have made the effort to attend. I do like this company

Sideshow Bob
23-11-2023, 02:20 PM
Is it even online?? I can't find any reference to it being so.

Rawz
23-11-2023, 02:24 PM
this part is good:

Our new contract announcement on Monday was timely and we expect to see more orders likethis in the near term.We have recruited staff locally here in Canberra to improve our engagement with the ADF witha view to a possible ADF ballistic protection procurement in 2024. Coupled with assistancefrom the Board, we are well advanced on that pursuit and feel confident with our approach andpositioning.

percy
23-11-2023, 02:26 PM
Scroll down for agm presentation.page 8.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02744260-3A631563?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Rawz
23-11-2023, 02:41 PM
Scroll down for agm presentation.page 8.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02744260-3A631563?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

thanks Percy

i like:

FY24 Opportunity Pipeline & OutlookThe Group has an opportunity pipeline of leads at various stages of qualification worth more than $375m:
• Technology Division – is pursuing multiple drone related Acquisition & Support Contract opportunities across the region valued >$75m.
• Ballistics Division – has a global pipeline of opportunities >$300m for lightweight body armour, ballistic helmets, and ballistic shields, with customers such as the UK MoD, US DoD, US DoJ.

Based on current sales and business development activity being progressed around the world, and the continued tailwinds for the sector, the Group is positive about maintaining continued revenue growth and profitability in FY24.

And this is trading on a 7 P/E with no debt!! Its a goodie

Rawz
24-11-2023, 01:20 PM
Xtek on sale. i can only assume because of the director notice saying Chris Fullerton is ceasing to be a substantial holder. But it is because he is retiring after 5.5 years service!!!

i bought another 5,100 shares with the last remaining funds in my sharesies account lol. Bargain at 41.5cents imo!!!

percy
24-11-2023, 01:28 PM
I topped up on Friday @ au.4591 cents,[thanks to Craigs Dunedin].

Crickey.
I paid too much Rawz.
41.5 cents.Great buying.

percy
29-11-2023, 03:36 PM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02747161-3A632061?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a3 9ff4

Name change to HighCom Limited tomorrow.
New Code is HCL.

Rawz
30-11-2023, 03:28 PM
Who can update the thread to “HCL HighCom- undervalued microcap with huge potential”

percy
01-12-2023, 03:48 PM
Who can update the thread to “HCL HighCom- undervalued microcap with huge potential”

Think we have Vince to thank.

Rawz
11-12-2023, 12:52 PM
Trading has been up n down like a yo yo.

Not sure if punters are concerned about a potential capital raise for an acquisition after their latest presentation? I dont know why somebody would be unhappy about this? Its been singled before and would open up this so called 'blue ocean' USA defense spend that HCL could get a piece of

Sideshow Bob
19-01-2024, 01:54 PM
Still in a bit of a downward trend, even with less volume going through now have Regal have sold down.

Expect that the next meaningful update won't be until the end of February with the HY result....

thedrunkfish
21-01-2024, 09:02 AM
Trading has been up n down like a yo yo.

Not sure if punters are concerned about a potential capital raise for an acquisition after their latest presentation? I dont know why somebody would be unhappy about this? Its been singled before and would open up this so called 'blue ocean' USA defense spend that HCL could get a piece of

Im puzzled as well, perhaps the fact they indicated it was easier to acquire existing rather than secure new govt contracts? I suspect there is alot of competition in the USA market, but I see good value here. Decent cash reserves, no debt, growing revenue, only factor for me is the business isn't particularly unique in alot of ways.

percy
12-02-2024, 05:27 PM
What we did not know..
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02771621-3A636170