GEN - A ski slope

[duncan macgregor]

Sorry Donner dont intend being unkind. I have been very consistent over the last couple of years with this company. I could see the writing on the wall then. I only hope i saved some other investors from going down with them. What are they now thirty cents and dropping. Anyone that thinks they have a chance, should buy when something happens, and lose a few cents at the bottom not ride them down. I hope this is a good lesson to other new investors to never average down, but buy when it comes right. I said it a couple of years ago that this company is a dog, i still have that opinion its only a matter of time before it goes under. macdunk

[Enumerate]

GEN is not dead - it is just resting ...

GEN has many significant intellectual property assets. The fact is these assets require money to create and money to commercially exploit.

This is the fundamental problem. The existing cash reserves are depleting at the "burn rate". The key issue is: will the commercialisation prospects kick in before the money runs out?

Donner's view was that the forestry side of the business offered the shortest path to a commercial return. I concur with this view. GEN, however, was outsmarted commercially. This has two consequences - questions over when the smaller portfolio of RNAi IP will kick in commercially and will existing mangement drop the ball again?

There is value in the health patents and research. To call the company a "dog" is a misunderstanding of the value (and opportunities) that remain. The research capability is top notch - but constrained by financial limits.

The challenge for the new board is to demonstrate that they have the commercial nous to lead the company to a better place than it finds itself presently.

Other risks remain - RNAi could be a bust. Only further research can tell ...

However, there are also rewards ...

High risk : High reward does not mean the stock "barks".

[donner]

GEN, however, was outsmarted commercially.

How were they outsmarted? My opinion is they just got done a dogs dinner because they haven't got the funds to fight the fight in Court.

I think you may miss the point with the RNAi. It is pre-phase 1. No-one goes near that anymore except VC outfits. For all technical purposes of investment this is now a shell company. A shell in the waiting for something.

Unless of course I have completely missed something and they have something up their sleeve in the RNAi which they have not released publically.

Otherwise its a shell.

[Enumerate]

Notwithstanding the point that the RNAi projects are phase 1 and that process of accrediting new healthcare treatments is long and expensive ... I would not describe the company as a shell.

An capable and active research group remains.

Significant patents exist across health and plant research activities.

There is some cash.

There is the prospect of royalties from Arborgen ... yeah, right.

We have a bright, shiny new board! The Jim's might be a bit tarnished and beaten up - but the others are bright and shiny.

In a market that supports a company that makes wheels for boats and markets vodka (which is by law tasteless) based on taste - there has got to be some scope for a world class biosciences IP developement company.

If it isn't a "dog" and it isn't a "shell" ... it must be a "wonderful investment opportunity".

[duncan macgregor]

The reason that i stated that this company s a dog long before you noticed that it is barking in the wrong direction is that it is not practical. It is run by people that are not practical it must go under. One and one make two, the people that run this beleive in fairies. People like this require common sense practical people to run the business, this company is sadly lacking in this. It is like the all blacks playing the first half like idiots coming in at half time and being told what to do in the second half. we have all seen that happen what gen needs is someone to tell them what to do in the last five minutes. macdunk

[Lawso]

quote:The reason that i stated that this company s a dog long before you noticed that it is barking in the wrong direction is that it is not practical. It is run by people that are not practical it must go under. One and one make two, the people that run this beleive in fairies. People like this require common sense practical people to run the business, this company is sadly lacking in this.
With due respect, Dunk, that is complete bollocks.
Founder and ex-CEO Jim Watson is a scientist pure and simple; I know nothing about his business acumen, or lack of it, and I doubt if you do.
I do know that the board has always had people with strong business/financial backgrounds.
Long-time chairman David Irvine was CEO of Heinz-Wattie Australasia. His successor as chairman, Jim McLean, was a partner in Ernst & Young and has a BSc (Hons) to go with his accounting degree. Jon Cimino, BCA, is an investment banker and sharebroker. Steven Gillis has been CEO and chairman of Corixa Corporation (USA).
Need I go on? The two newbies, Von Roy and Washer, appear to have solid business management backgrounds as well has having held senior positions in biotech and related fields internationally.
I'm not saying GEN is or is not a dog but in this instance you're barking up the wrong tree. Thereby weakening your own argument.

[duncan macgregor]

Lawso,Look up the record of the founder and and ex co, with his business record. Not for my money to invest in fairy land, dont mind yours, but dont bulldust the newbies. My only crime was to let the people know it was a dog, the ones that might have listened to the ramping.
If you read this thread back then i might have saved some investors a lot of money. macdunk

[donner]

The question is can GEN deliver? This on RNAi.

"Delivery to the cell is still an obstacle," Lieberman explains. "Unless you really focus on how to solve that problem, you're not going to get very far."

http://www.bio.com/realm/features.jhtml?realmId=1&cid=ci137313138

This is no easy road they have chosen. In other words, another clue that the deal has to be done for this company to survive.

[donner]

Looks like someone likes it. Big volumes going through today. Price holding steady so more like a buyer than a seller.

[Steve]

If you are some-what inclined, there is an article in the latest Journal of Applied Corporate Finance

"Value-Based Management in Biosciences R&D"

While it is obviously not a NZ study, I would say that it is relevent to GEN.

Disc: Never held GEN

[Ngapuke]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

If you are some-what inclined, there is an article in the latest Journal of Applied Corporate Finance

"Value-Based Management in Biosciences R&D"

While it is obviously not a NZ study, I would say that it is relevent to GEN.

Disc: Never held GEN



Steve - since some of us won't have ready access to this journal, what are your thoughts @ GEN in the light the article??

[donner]

Thanks for the info Steve. I had a quick look on the web but, and call me a tight ****, it takes US$26 to get a copy of something that may or may not be of interest or comprehendible to me.

So I wonder if you know of any public orgs that carry this journal in Auckland.

:)

[donner]

I was able to get a copy of the Journal up the Auckland Uni.

It was interesting stuff but I don't expect it to be of much relevance to GEN given their set of circumstances currently.

In another market with greater depth and complexity to it such a method would most likely have currency but not on the NZX. Investors on the NZX prefer quantifiable units of performance and value. Hence the lack of understanding of GEN and its subsequent valuation.

BTW, did anyone notice the article in todays paper about Direct Capital, ACC and Pohutukawa, AKA ABN Amro Craigs with Jon Cimino (ex-GEN director)connection, buying a retail chain? The point being that if you want proof of a connected and cosy relationship between the parties one does not have to look further than this.

[Bubble Boy]

quote:Originally posted by donner



BTW, did anyone notice the article in todays paper about Direct Capital, ACC and Pohutukawa, AKA ABN Amro Craigs with Jon Cimino (ex-GEN director)connection, buying a retail chain? The point being that if you want proof of a connected and cosy relationship between the parties one does not have to look further than this.


Yep, i think they plan to do a back door listing of MAX through GEN. The combined entity will manufacture clothing that cures psoriasis.

[winner69]

At least van Roy was frank and honest in the BBR when he said that 'you don't have to be an Einstein to work out what will happen if this (RNAi) doesn't work'

and

'If the models we are working on now don't prove what we believe is right, then all we can do is accept defeat and say sorry this isn't going to happen'

Seems a long shot and if it does work I wonder how many will want to dig deep to give more money to commercialise it?

One good thing for the country (not for shareholders) is that it is keeping some good scientists here

[donner]

What will happen if it doesn't work is what I have been trying to work out for a long time now. If they do say sorry, that isn't going to happen, then what is going to happen to the $39m worth of tax credits? I'll bet there are other businesses out there, maybe not even from the scientific area that will want to buy in or be bought out by them for that reason alone. Pike River Coal maybe?

I guess we will just have to wait and see.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by donner

I was able to get a copy of the Journal up the Auckland Uni.

It was interesting stuff but I don't expect it to be of much relevance to GEN given their set of circumstances currently.


Donner, do you think that it may be more relevant for BLT, BOZ or PEB?

[donner]

No. It would really only be useful on the NASDAQ. Australasian bio is really down on its luck at the moment. Better off to look for a stock that is at or below cash value but with good technology, partnerships and patents. All the high brow valuation techniques can be damned if you can find one that fits that criteria because it means you are getting a lot more value than the price represents.

[donner]

This is the link to one of the leading RNAi outfits around. It is very informative and educational.

http://www.alnylam.com/

They are Nasdaq listed. Have some seriously good patents (Kreutzer- Limmer, Tuschl II, Crooke)that can provide good competitive advantage and are developing a deep pipeline with big pharma as collaboration partners.

Sounds very similar to GEN. Only difference is GEN is due for the knackers yard soon as it has no or very little money left and certainly not enough to develop IP programmes to stage III.

Thats not to say that GEN is a goner. Alnylam has several projects underway and only two of them into phase one. Nothing past that. All the rest are pre-phase one. The difference is they have money. GEN has some but not enough.

So it is back to square one. What is GEN going to do to recapitalize itself if it is to stay in business. Previously I have outlined several options. I stand by them. There are no other options.

I have to wonder if GEN has relations with this company and since they are due to release their interim shortly I get the distinct feeling that if they don't come clean in that then it will raise more questions then it answers.

In fact I can see the day, within the next two to three years when GEN will be listed on the NASDAQ. I believe they have the IP assets to go toe to toe with the best of them.

[donner]

...and you do have to wonder when you read the following, if they are just rushing in to join the next big thing and where they sit in the crowd.

Reagent Licenses to Kreutzer-Limmer Patents. This past
quarter, Alnylam granted multiple non-exclusive licenses under
its Kreutzer-Limmer patent family to providers of RNAi
research products and services, namely Ambion, Inc,
Eurogentec, Sigma-Aldrich Corporation, and MWG Biotech AG.
This patent family covers siRNAs and their use to mediate RNAi
in mammalian cells. To date, eight research product companies
have taken a license to this patent family.

[donner]

Anyone happen to notice an interesting little article in todays Sunday Herald about another venture capital fund coming into town to try to buy up some biotech companies here? One in particular was a plant genomic company. The other was a medical equipment company. How many plant genomic companies are there in NZ? Could it be GEN?

$75m to spend. The guys heading the show are all ex-pats by the sounds. They reckon they will reveal all on Tuesday...gonna partner a local VC outfit.

[Ngapuke]

Hey, Donner. Thanks for the interesting GEN posts. Keep them coming. Half-year results out this arvo. not too bad, in as much as Stephen Hall predicts Arborgen settlement will give co. another 3 years at current burn rate. Staff down to around 40, 25% of what it was a few years ago. I guess we're back to square one with this co., in early stage discovery ... here's hoping 2nd time round proves more successful.

[donner]

Well all I could take from that was that it costs about $700k a month to keep the GEN households fed, clothed and boozed.

The other thing that got me thinking was just how long does it take to draw up some documents? At this rate they will be out of cash before they receive the Arbo wedge.

If this was a US company would they be open to the charge of trading whilst insolvent? If not now then very soon I expect.

So whats it going to be? RTO, merge or PIPE. With Washer on the board I will say RTO of the Celentis units or a PIPE and a buyout of them.

As a nationalist I think this is terrific for the country...if I'm right of course.

[donner]

For those interested in RTO's heres a sample of how the model works by a niche outfit that specialises in technology firms. Change the numbers around a bit use a bit of imagination and you will be able to fit GEN in there quite nicely.

http://www.viatec.ca/brc/pdf/reverse_takeovers_qualifying.pdf

A real life example is the CHA one where it would appear that the safest way to buy would be to wait for the announcement then buy up the warrants and convert. That way you remove risk.

Having said that however, there are two factors that come into play. The issue price for any new stock and the method used for determining the entry price. By negotiation or market demand the price might be decided/rise to be 50c but the stock is trading at 30c currently. So you would expect a jump to 50c quickly. Normally, for new issues, you use a VWAP as prescribed in the Constitution and this is where it gets interesting.

You see, when WRI sold out and ACC bought in the price at the time if I remember correctly was 45c. ABN Amro Craigs were left holding the baby to the tune of nearly 900k GEN stock. Only, when I checked the records at Computershare the other day I found that they have only 400k. It begs the question of why clever money men would be selling out of 500k of stock at a loss when ACC have stated they see much more value in GEN then their average purchase price of 45c? The only logical conclusion I could come to was, to control the VWAP for a period of time and thereby engineer the issue price to a level they like. It would appear that level is in the low thirties. Technically however the chart seems to be forming a double bottom. Bad news looming? RNAi a failure? Bang! Amro Craigs dumps on the market bringing the price down?

It just so happens, by merry coincidence of course, that ABN Amro Craigs has the Jon Cimino connection that links Pohutukawa, Craigs, ACC and Direct Capital into a happy group as evidenced the other day with their Maxx deal. You can imagine the discussions they must have talking about GEN.

Getting back to the model above for a RTO we can see that the company is morphed into Privco, the board is taken over (Jim Watson has already said he will step down when a suitable third person is found.This is in keeping with the RTO model above.[I personally believe ACC had someone in line and if they could have would have rolled JW at the AGM])and the big winners are the privco holders. That is conditional of course on the terms of the deal. IE. the dilution factor. If you have the likes of Brent King on both sides of the transaction its quite likely an existing holder would be done over like a stuffed turkey. GEN holders fortunately have Jim Watson holding the casting vote. Just what difference that makes in reality I'm not too sure because if your'e over a barrel you don't have a lot of options left open to you. But he has my confidence.

Of course I might be totally wrong, barking up the wrong GE tree but if I am it doesn't change the fact GEN does not have enough money to do what they say they will, and if they won't liquidate then what will they do?

If not the RTO then its a PIPE, which I will comment on another time and if both of those options are wrong it has to be a merger.

But with now, three big VC funds swimming in a small pool looking for bio opps, one of them in the plant genome business I reckon I can't be too far wrong.

[donner]

After checking out PIPE's a bit more I find that this is not likely.

PIPE's usually involve some kind of equity stake at some point of time. It could be convertible stock of equity or debentures or the issuance of more ordinary or even preffered stock. But whatever it is it will require conversion to equity which will then trip the takeover laws. Although if the price is so low to be unattractive the offer would be declined.

I still think the logical easy way out is an RTO.

Face it people. GEN as it was is dead.

The question is what will the reincarnate be and how will they reincarnate?

[donner]

...further, to those following this thread, I believe I have done a pretty good job of making my argument clear. Whether it will be bourne out or not I have no idea. Business is like engineering. If you don't have the structure right sooner or later it will rot or fall over. The structure for GEN was wrong from the beginning but if they had've gotten through to Stage III they would have had options that are different from todays. They didn't so the structure has collapsed. To my mind, there are only two or three viable options open to them if they are to rebuild. I have made them clear and will probably make very little or no comment from here on.

Hope those with an interest have gained something from my comments to the positive side of the ledger.

And as for MS, well, what can I say?

For those interested in what a good sustainable model for biotech should look like, look no further than RBC.

[duncan macgregor]

DONNER, I cant beleive you wont say any more on this dog. You are must have lost a great bundle. It would be nice to think you learned something and wont fall in love like this again. All the best macdunk

[marinesalvor]

dont try and pick a fight with me donner - your knowledge of international biotech is woeful at best and I have given up trying to dignify you with responses

[donner]

I am no global biotech expert. I never pretended to be. If this thread were about global biotech I doubt I would have so much to say. But just in case you missed the title, this thread is about Genesis. NZ's leading public biotech company. A company I have come to know quite well.

Time will tell who is right here.

It makes no difference what sector you're in. If your'e in GEN's position there are only so many options left open to you. RTO, merge, liquidate. There are other alternatives to recap but are really not viable given the capital required. Unfortunately business is business.

You're opinion was they will meander along until the death.

Capitalist's was they will go under.

Indeed they may, but not with out a phoenix plan. If they were going to liquidate they would have done so at this AGM. If it was such a dog as you say you wouldn't have AvR or SW joining the board thinking its a good thing.

If you are such a biotech expert tell us your opinion on their RNAi programme.

[donner]

Very interesting article in the Rural News about Agvax. Agvax is one of the Celentis subsidiaries. Celentis is a business unit of AgResearch.

Basically it states that Agvax has been sold to the highest bidder.

I find this fascinating in an election year when asset sales was recently in the news and debates. Labour/Helen resolutely declared no asset sales.

Agvax was recently declared one of the top 50 growth companies in the country by KMPG.

On the bright side it implies there could be a tie up here with GEN somehow given one of the directors led Celentis at one stage. Especially if you read the first line of the 7th para.

http://www.ruralnews.co.nz/article.asp?channelid=140&articleid=9495

...and from the purchasers website:

Ian Boddy, Commercial Group Manager, AgResearch says “The decision to offer AgVax for sale is in line with the general intention of Crown Research Institutes to divest subsidiaries that would be better positioned in the private sector.”

[Ngapuke]

Sorry Donner - but I simply don't see the connection with GEN. No matter if the GOvt of the day wishes promising young knowledge-based companies to stay in Kiwi hands. Celentis was designed to commercialise AgResearch IP, and selling companies like this to the highest bidder is its raison d'etre. It doesn't matter whether Labour, Colin Harvey or you and I don't like it. It a simple legacy of Rogernomics, and AgResearch's former policies. I say 'former', because Celentis doesn't figure so much in the scheme of things these days, and so companies like AgVax are less likely to come out of AgResearch in future.

[donner]

The connection I was suggesting is that if they are selling Agvax out of the Celentis stable then perhaps there are others up for sale more closely aligned to the interests of GEN.Or as Ian Boddy says would be better positioned in the private sector.

Meaning a public listing trading at PE multiples.

Remember one of these VC funds was looking at a plant genomic company.

I also don't believe that Washer is on GEN's board for any other reason than his Celentis background.

What do you mean by Celentis doesn't figure so much in the scheme of things?

[duncan macgregor]

DONNER, I thought you promised to stop raving on about this dog. Anyone that listened to you is dog tucker . Dont you see after all this time your averaging down whatever have you still learned nothing?. macdunk

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Finistere is a provence of Brittany and in English means end of the earth.


Shouldn't it be "Finis" - end; "Terre" -earth : "Finisterre"

Looked it up and it is "Finistere" as you point out. (Still think it should be as above).

http://www.finistere.com/

Anyway - very useful observation Jolly.

One more thing - Cape Finnisterre, off northwest Spain was the scene of a number of naval battles during the age of sail. This was also the age of pirates. Please tell us, Jolly (Roger), that you are NOT a pirate!

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, Some one might put up a good argument to the contrary, but still get it completely wrong. Donner is an emotional person that let his emotions rule his thinking. He got so involved, that he started using obscene posts, that ended up getting him banned. There is no doubt that donner will come back a much wiser person, Then lets hope he does, but in saying that i hope next time he will realise that we all are capable of making mistakes. The secret is when you make one dont be so right that you cant be wrong. I rubbished GEN at the start, i rubbished WRI for pouring money down the drain. The very simple reason is practical people make money the others lose it. MACDUNK

[Enumerate]

Did anyone see the Finistere chap on TV1 this morning ...

Nothing new to report - apart from the general interest in agri biotech.

[Enumerate]

The only thing he mentioned was that Finistere was able to find a number of biotech "nuggets" in NZ. This is mainly due to the associate with the NZ Gov't.

No companies were mentioned by name.

This is TV1 ASB Business, after all - it is pitched at those with a mental age of 8 and a business background appropriate to the average 12 year old.

[Lawso]

Expect a big jump in GEN's s p any time soon. Why? Because I've just sold out, of course.

I finally lost patience, after being a hopeful holder since 1999, pre-IPO. Initially paid 220cps. I reduced in '01 @ $4cps but of course I should have got out altogether long ago. Now I know better. Never mind, I can put the pathetic proceeds from yesterday's sale to better use, with so many bargains currently available. Now the only dog left in my kennel is RMG[V]

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Expect a big jump in GEN's s p any time soon. Why? Because I've just sold out, of course.

I finally lost patience, after being a hopeful holder since 1999, pre-IPO. Initially paid 220cps. I reduced in '01 @ $4cps but of course I should have got out altogether long ago. Now I know better. Never mind, I can put the pathetic proceeds from yesterday's sale to better use, with so many bargains currently available. Now the only dog left in my kennel is RMG[V]


Good on yah. Sold my Gen holding at about $1.10 having paid I think upwards of $6. ouch. Time to shoot this dog dead dead dead. [|)]

[lambton]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

I can remember reading stories like this on FFS in the day. At which time I would blunder on in and buy a whole heap of them. I ended up making a lot of money in the end.


Jolly Good on yah. That's what makes a market. :)

[Lawso]

quote: Out of curiosity how many did you sell? I had noticed the volumes in the last few days were higher than normal.
32,000 GEN changed hands yesterday. Not all of them were mine;)

quote:I can remember reading stories like this on FFS in the day. At which time I would blunder on in and buy a whole heap of them. I ended up making a lot of money in the end.
Wot's FFS?

[Ngapuke]

Nice to see the Chairman buying a parcel of 30,000 @ 30c on Wednesday

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GEN&E=NZSE&N=122778


quote:Originally posted by Lawso


quote: Out of curiosity how many did you sell? I had noticed the volumes in the last few days were higher than normal.
32,000 GEN changed hands yesterday. Not all of them were mine;)

[CrossTrainer]

If you look at the ups and downs over the last few months you could make a bob or two by buying and selling at the right times many times over - but only for the brave.

[Lawso]

quote:Wot's FFS?

quote:Fletcher Forests
You've opened another old wound, Jolly. Years ago, when I was young and naive, I bought quite heavily into FF, with dividends (if any) reinvested, seeing it as my personal superannuation plan.[B)] Surely growing forests were better than money in the bank![V]

Never mind, FBU has relieved some of the pain.

[Year of the Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso


You've opened another old wound, Jolly. Years ago, when I was young and naive, I bought quite heavily into FF, with dividends (if any) reinvested, seeing it as my personal superannuation plan.[B)] Surely growing forests were better than money in the bank![V]

Never mind, FBU has relieved some of the pain.


Hmmm, interesting...

I remember a friend telling me once when I first started to take an interest in the Sharemarket. He said: Stay away from anything that flys (Airlines); swims (fisheries); or grows (forestry).

I thank him from the bottom of my heart..[:I]

[Ngapuke]

Thanks for that post, Jolly ... ever the optimist that I am, I'm prepared to take Arkie's puchases as a sign of confidence in GEN's future. If I wanted to be really optimistic, I might even think that his purchases so soon after the recent newsletter to shareholders would give some protection from 'insider trading' accusations, should some sort of price-moving deal be announced between now and next Feb (when next financials are due to be reported).

Certainly others in this field are getting some useful publicity, such as this article http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-1859140,00.html in the UK Sunday Times @ Colgate-Palmolive. Any deal by GEN with a household name like that would wake up NZ investors.... sighhhhh....

[marinesalvor]

notice how Donner has disappeared but funnily enough Jolly arrives with the same upbeat message?? - has done 22 posts - the overwhelming majority just on GEN

[whatsup]

Wow, very interesting ,watch the sparks fly.

[marinesalvor]

sad Jolly - if you had read carefully enough you would find I have always said GEN has great potential - and have constantly wished them well - just said its not for me. I also thought they had better prospects out of Arbo - sadly this hasnt happened

I am not keen to continue in a thread where I am now abused - good luck to GEN holders - I hope you become millionaires and can laugh at me all day - I really do

[duncan macgregor]

I have to admit that i said GEN was a dog from start to [ahem] not quite finish. If we are that thin skinned that you can never be wrong dont post on the forum is my advise. When WRI bought into gen that was it for me said so at the time. I definately dont think that DONNER is JOLLY after averaging down the way that he insisted on doing. At least i know when to get rid of my mistakes some people never JOLLY well learn. macdunk

[Enumerate]

Things have just started to get interesting with GEN.

It is either worth nothing or quite a bit more than current share price. The difficulty is in establishing the relative probabilities.

Basically, I believe the RNAi science is well within GEN's competance to explore. (In fact, I'd be a bit bolder - the GEN focus, since foundation, has been on the broader area of genetic signalling and control across both health and plant science).

GEN will have an opportunity to see what core patents they can secure in the RNAi field. The field may prove very significant, or it may not. My intuition tells me some core technologies are going to be discovered in this field - but, there are a lot of players.

One thing people do not generally understand is that intellectual property - like biological science patents - can have very significant value.

GEN is a bit like an oil wildcatter or a Hollywood starlet. A very few, get very rich - most don't.

Still worth a punt ... I do miss Donner's posts - but, Jolly's are just as interesting.

[Capitalist]

You are full of sh!t Donner - you know nothing of Citi's seed capital investments, or of my marital status or family life, despite your obvious stalking and continuous obsessive, obscene comments which have been deleted lest you be banned once more.

In fact Donner's comments are defamatory, as they have always been.

Hell hath no fury like a <s>woman</s> man (let's not forget he pretended he was a woman) scorned.

Your karma will run over your dogma on GEN.

[Capitalist]

Suggest you go back 3-4 years to get the gist of the jihad AA.

Jolly (bwahaha- what a name for such a grey, humorless man) has claimed conspiracy theories against von Tempsky (who manipulated CEN), and Marine Salvor - both of whom he claimed were my husband. And he was ever so jealous of GB. He even pretended he was a woman to try and turn my friend against me. He claims he hates me but hangs on the edge of his seat waiting for me to post.

He is a joke who knows nothing. An old guy who lives in Blackball or somewhere. What a loser.

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly


As for Capitalist, it has become known that she is in the employee of Citibank and indeed married to the boss man there. His name is Andrew Ayling. It so happens that a director of the Citibank backed VC fund Finisterre is a Rob Ayling who used to be a director of Ag Research. I say it is no coincidence the names are the same.

Are you sure?

Finisterre is in NZ looking for biotech firms to buy up. One of which is agrarian in nature. There are only a few of these in NZ one of which is GEN, another is Grasslanz (AgResearch), a couple of other CRI's, another is WRI, some of the universities' incubators, maybe HQP or some independent minnows. Given the AgResearch connection of Rob Ayling, and some forward looking statements on AgResearch's website put together with the "Finisterre chap" on the ASB business programme finding some "nuggets" in the CRI's, it is a logical step to assume the entity in question is Grasslanz. Grasslanz and AgResearch in its wider capacity have collaborated with GEN over the years on different projects as have other CRI's.

It is obvious then that Capitalist due to her Citibank role along with that of her husband and the people of Finisterre have a vested interest in a company such as GEN and its fortunes. One must ask the question of, why would she be so critical of a company like GEN, adamant it will go under when a Citibank VC fund is swimming around looking for biotech opportunities in NZ in the agricultural sector.

Are you sure - this is defamatory otherwise.

To reinforce this question is the observation of Benitec, an RNAi leader in Australia, indeed globally, getting restructured with the help of Citibank's Asia Pacific regional boss. Which, incidentally left the existing and minority shareholders done over like a stuffed turkey at Christmas.

So to answer the question posed I can only say I don't know for sure but I suspect they (Citibank) have an interest in seeing the price very low if they have an interest in RNAi technology.


(snip)
Conclusions:

GEN got ripped off selling its stake in Arborgen but when you are in their position what can you do?

They will have huge revenues flowing to them when Arborgen becomes commercial in patent royalties as per the to date unsigned agreement. But this company is anything but gone and worth a lot more than 33c.

MarineSalvor has wilfully made false and misleading statements for reasons we don't know or is unbelievably dumb to think a) others are so dumb as to believe him or b)can't recognize a golden goose when he sees one in spite of self proclaimed expertise.

Capitalist has wilfully made false and misleading statements for reasons we don't know or is unbelievably dumb to think a) others are so dumb as to believe her or b)can't recognize a golden goose when she sees one in spite of self proclaimed expertise.

I suspect the former. Once Donner accused her of being a liar and a fraud and was forced to apologize for having his facts wrong. In my not so humble opinion I think in spite of having his facts wrong he was absolutely right and that goes right to the top of Citibank:NZ in keeping with all the other things one reads about them in the newspapers when it comes to acts of sculduggery, dishonesty and market manipulation etc etc. It is no surprise she tried so hard to get him banned.



Indeed Jolly - keep on topic. This thread is not about you and your jihad against me and Citigroup. It has been ignored because you are an obvious psychotic.

You got yourself banned by resorting to sexual obscenity when all else failed.

You are nothing, and your opinion is nothing.

[rmbbrave]

Where's Blackball?

[Capitalist]

Indeed Brave - good question. I have no other names here and Mr Belgarion is an acquaintance whom I respect.

Come to your own conclusions.

[duncan macgregor]

I feel quite lucky. I am not being stalked , i dont give a **** who runs citibank. i couldnt care less where blackball is, but luckiest of all i am not dumb enough to have shares in GEN. macdunk

[Capitalist]

The burden of proof is on you Jolly - not me. You are the one making the defamatory statements. As Duncan says - no one else gives a rat's ass, except you - the spurned lover of 3 years ago - and the one still stalking me.

Go back to sleep you silly old fart.

[croesus]

Blackball is about 20 minutes from Greymouth, up in the Hills... great sausages, great pub, the Croesus Track connects it to Barrytown.. over the range and on the coast.... on a clear night you can hear the sound of dueling banjoes (aka Deliverence) from the bustling little Hamlet of Roa up the valley past the old Scirroco Fan... we generally have a drum of tar on the boil.. and a few chooks ready for plucking..
cheers Croesus

[rmbbrave]

Ever seen any moose scat?

[lanenz]

WOW.

I have only read this page and Jolly quite a useful post (and rather large). Seems like some friction on this thread and nothing wrong with that as long as you can take as good as you get.

A lecturer once told me, there is nothing more dangerous than a woman scorned. Not that i have anything against woman

[croesus]

Don't be silly, for Moose scat go way south, to Wet Jacket Arm in Fiordland, then head up Herrick Creek.

[madmike]

you going jolly


quote:Originally posted by Jolly

[quote]Originally posted by Ngapuke


You might get a chance to ask him why at this weeks upcoming meetings if you are anywhere near the main centres.

[Ngapuke]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
.....
You might get a chance to ask him why at this weeks upcoming meetings if you are anywhere near the main centres.


Business commitments prevent me attending ... but in any case, I don't think I would ask (it's none of my business). However I would be interested to gauge the mood of the Co., from the presenters' tone-of-voice and body language as much as anything else.

If shareholders are going to see the value of their shares rise, then the staff need to be happy and motivated so that - with a touch of luck too - they'll create value for us all. An important part of creating an environment where GEN staff can succeed involves support from the senior executives, and ultimately the Board. So I'd be looking for signals that the Co was now 'healthy' in this respect (the signs were encouraging at the last AGM I attended.)

[madmike]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Nope. What for? The only thing I want to hear about is covered by the continuous disclosure regulations.


q1 do the board foresee a rights issue in the short to medium future or will they be "going into p'ship" with others to gain $$$$ to continue business.
q2 if p'ship then what procedures will the board put in place so gen doesn't get ripped off like it appears to have done with arbogen.

jolly, you happy that these issues have been fully discussed in the public arena.......ie continuous disclosure

me thinks that is why share price is / has been around 30c for so long........lack of info from company

[madmike]

$8 to 30c shareprice
trust a man that allows that to happen!!!!
hasnt been doing enough (in the public arena) to encourage shareholders to back him up.
still the question of when not if the money runs out


quote:Originally posted by Jolly

No chance of a rights issue. The CEO is on record for saying as much and one or two years the then CEO was trying to find a corner stone holder for Agrigen and he said the same. So no chance.

I agree with Donner that it has to be an RTO, a merger or a cornerstone stake sell off or any combination there of.

The one thing all investors can have confidence in is that Jim Watson holds the casting vote on any motion put to the board. Rather than lambasting him for GEN being a failure investors should ensure they lend their support to him on everything he says. Since his interests are aligned with the investors being one of the largest shareholders in the company.

[Enumerate]

Very good animation of the elements of RNAi biology at the following:

http://www.nature.com//focus/rnai/animations/index.html#download

[Bling_Bling]

It doesnt mater what management has to say or not say. The fundamentals of this company doesnt stack up. A dog in my books. Both management and company are dogs.

[I.T.Ancient]

I don't know any dogs who resort to throwing other peoples resources at the latest fad to get themselves fed. It's time we rehabilitated dogs around here. After all, we only muck about with cats after they are dead. Let's call GEN a lemon - open to revision if you can find a shareholder who doesn't look like they have just eaten one when you mention the company.

[Ngapuke]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Wow. .... Reckon someone somewhere must know something. Be interesting to see who's doing the selling....


I doubt if anyone cares, to be honest <s>Donner</s> Jolly ;)

[lanenz]

Jolly.

Big money moving out (not). I cant be big money as the market cap is only about $7m now. Only 28,000 shares traded yesterday out of 26,000,000. Just over $7,000 worth. This dog has been dying a slow death for a couple of years now.

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY [or Donna]whatever you want to call yourself why worry about a company that has had a high of over $7-00 now trading at 26c. Whats wrong with you?. You must be completely brainwashed to persist in this little crusade. Sell up before you lose the lot, and leave your money in the bank if you have any left. The share market is not for you, get out and stick to whatever you are good at. macdunk

[Enumerate]

The company has done precisely what it said it would do:

i) Raise capital for investment in the development of biotech IP
ii) Create a world class research team
iii) Seek to exploit the commercial opportunities of patent rights associated with developed IP

The key to GEN.NZX is to understand the commercial value (point iii) of GEN activities, to date (i and ii).

This is the question at the heart of Jolly's posts.

The character of the industry is that 9 times out of 10 - the research leads to nothing.

What I find intriguing about GEN (and highlighted by Jolly) is that there seems significant merit in some of the Agribusiness patents to justify expectation of royalty revenue.

There is also cash!

Putting aside the merits of RNAi research - there would seem to be a viable, profitable, core to GEN. Even if it abandoned development and became a biotech IP holding company - there would, it seems, be some core value.

I predict the departure of Jim Watson will see the RNAi activities refocused (and scaled down).

A further question would be: "What can a set of highly experienced biotech entrepeneurs make of an intriguing collection of biotech patents?"

Beats buying a Lotto ticket ;)

[Lawso]

That Genesis announcement leaves questions unanswered. They make a song-and-dance about Gearing's appointment but it appears he is only another non-executive director. At the same time the company says only that Jim Watson has resigned from the Board. But is he still on the staff? Does he have any scientific or executive role? If not, who's running the show? I think we should be told.

[duncan macgregor]

What some of you people forget is we are here to make money not get all stupid about rights or wrongs. This company has been going down hill for years, to be a shareholder you would have to be as dumb as they come. I would lay odds that there are people stupid enough to have bought shares at $6-$7 out there that still hold at 26c or whatever they are. The idea in share investing is to make money, not allow yourself to be so right that you cant be wrong. Devise systems that wont allow your one eyed stupidity wreck your bank balance. I know some of you people will take offence, but i am broad minded have a go at me get your frustrations out, and move on. macdunk

[Capitalist]

A is A - and reality is the final arbiter. The reality is that it is valued at 26c as Duncan says. F.E.T.E.

No posturing and defamation by Donner/Jolly will change that.

[Lawso]

Dunk: Don't include me in your tirade. The purpose of my post was to point to inadequate/misleading reporting by the GEN board.

FYI, I first bought GEN in '99 for 220, sold most in '01 for $4 to recover my outlay, held on to a few to keep an eye on the company and finally quit last year @ 32cps.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Orginally posted by Jolly

I don't know why people think I am Donna or whoever else.

You don't? But presumably you expect us to take the rest of your posts seriously?

I think I can live without investing in the [remote] possibility that this will ever come to anything.

[Enumerate]

One key fact is apparent - the wider market has no ability to judge the value of GEN.NZX.

At the 10,000 meter view:

i) Genesis is a New Zealand-based biotechnology company. It has built a broad therapeutic development platform targeting immune disorders and cancer and is developing RNAi therapeutics for immune disorders. The company has an extensive patent portfolio.

ii) AgriGenesis Biosciences Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of Genesis that is focused on using key plant cell signalling genes – novel hormones and transcription factors – to control commercial traits including flowering control, cold tolerance, growth rates and cell-wall lignin and cellulose content in commercial species other than forestry. It has developed comprehensive plant EST databases. It has commercial collaborations with HortResearch and Landcare Research.

There are many sparkling gems in the GEN treasure chest - BioStor, mRNA libraries, IP licensed to Arborgen under royalty payment terms. GEN has significant tools and methods that allow genetic discovery targets to be proved useful (or otherwise).

The fact that the biotech sector takes GEN seriously is reflected in the nature and the quality of the people who have accepted board nomination.

Without a doubt - RNAi and the licensing of mRNA to block endogenous expression of genes is the current biotech "gold rush". Who ever discovers and licenses key microRNA will get very rich, very fast.

GEN have been active in the RNAi field before it was known as the RNAi field!

If you can't see value in GEN.NZX (or at least some glimmers) one of the following applies:
a) you lack the basic science to form a cogent opinion; or
b) you lack the basic business insight to see that there is core, sustainable value in the company (BioStor, Arborgen royalties, mRNA libraries, contract discovery on genetic targets, bio-informatics legacy).

As a strategic asset for the development of NZ human health, horticulture and land use - the GEN development teams could be maintained for Health Research Council, HortResearch and LandCare Research projects for about $5million annually, in research grants. About what the High Commissioner in London spends on wine and cheese evenings ....

The big question - is there leadership in place to preserve value for shareholders? Are we in the early stages of a due-diligence by the Australian biotech industry to rip the best bits out and leave the rest to die?

These questions would be interesting topics to muse upon.

Donner votre avis ... (doesn't quite mean the same as "Jolly votre avis").

or perhaps: Quand une biotech est Jolly, il ne faut qu'un instant pour la trouver telle.

[Enumerate]

My french is very rusty and was beaten into me by the Canadian government as a reluctant schoolboy ...

"Donner votre avis" ... give us your opinion

"Quand une biotech est Jolly, il ne faut qu'un instant pour la trouver telle" ... when a biotech is attractive (jolie - pretty), it is possible to tell in an instant

There is so much about GEN.NZX that rewards investigation.

Consider BioStore - there are so many basic applications of this technology and so many potential new theraputics. This alone, would justify a significant valuation.

A company with a background in plant signalling biology and immunology, with an extensive EST database and a world class gene discovery team would be high value proposition in a sophisticated 1st world economy. Lets completely ignore the patent base - the basic capability is worth something.

Further, given that the team understands plant and human health bio-signalling pathways and these are the prime targets for the new RNAi investigation. This adds another layer of value on the company.

New Zealanders forget their glorious biotech past:

- Maurice Wilkins - NZ born - Nobel prize for DNA structure with Watson and Crick (and Franklin - if awarded posthumously).

- Glaxo SmithKline, the largest pharmaceutical group in the world, had its origins as a dairy creamery in Bunnythorpe, near Palmerston North.

We have the people, the ideas and the world has the market. All we are missing is the confidence and the leadership.

On this latter point - I think Jim Watson, stepping down as a director but continuing in a research role, needs careful interpretation. Research leadership needs a combination of education and intuition - which Jim has in spades. Business development needs a network and commercial skills which is now present in the new board.

I hope they both (research team / new board) can work together without unnecessary conflict or acrimony. After all, some tough decisions are ahead, given the diminishing resources of the company.

If your viewpoint is mostly pragmatic - I would agree that current prospects for GEN.NZX look rather grim. They have insufficient provable revenue streams or government research grant support to continue in business beyond the cash burn horizon of 3 years. However, the biotech "sausage" is sold on its "sizzle" - this is where the new board can take up the challenge. There is alot of "sizzle" to sell.

Finally, biotech is rewarding for the investor by taking a portfolio approach to risk management. I would argue that GEN.NZX could justify its position in a biotech portfolio based on its prospects. This, I would hope, will translate to investor support for the company.

[Ngapuke]

So for simple long-suffering shareholders like myself, would this sort of scenario be good news or bad? Or is it one of those cases where either way, we're screwed?

[Enumerate]

Holding an investment in GEN.NZX can only be considered as high risk.

It is possible to take the view that, as a going concern, GEN has significant prospects and assets. Equally, it is possible to point out the liquidity issues and suggest that at a firesale, the value of the assets will not be seen by current shareholders who will not hold the assets for very much longer.

A definitive statement on the Arborgen settlement would clarify GEN's cash postion. GEN had a number of terms and conditions to satisfy, before payment was to be made. It is not clear where they are at in terms of contract completion.

Personally, I bought some at $0.21 averaging down my position; sold some at about $0.32. I'd buy more at $0.21 and I'd sell more at $0.32 unless information comes to light forcing a re-evaluation of the situation.

I like to think of my postion as a "call option" on the upside of the GEN IP. As Jolly points out, the upside could be large even without significant new discoveries in the research lab. It all comes down to commercial exploitation of the IP base.

However, GEN swims in shark infested waters. A commercial setback - like the Arborgen partners dispute (which seems to be ongoing) - could finish things.

Only you can decide where you are on the risk/reward curve. (Assuming you can even form an opinion on the risk or the reward, in the first place).

[Snow Leopard]

you really make spending cash on shares in this company sound like buying lotto tickets

[Enumerate]

Lotto is a zero sum game with a negative payoff matrix (game theory).

What we know about GEN is:

- is it NOT a zero sum game - there is the prospect of getting more out of the company than is collectively put in.
- the payoff matrix is positive (rated by Jolly and me), negative (by practically everyone else)

I am comfortable holding given the current information asymmetry. (Biostore, Arborgen royalty, limited Gov't research grants, patent base, EST IP, mRNA library ... all have "liquidation" value).

The potential value post "reconstruction" contain both opportunities and threats.

This stock bears close and careful observation ...

[duncan macgregor]

Sorry I will stick to the lotto ticket at least you have a winning chance. macdunk

[Lawso]

The following item in today's NZ Herald answers some of the questions I raised in my post of 29/1 but which were not addressed in GEN's earlier release to the SX.


quote:BIOTECH SPIN-OFF

Jim Watson - founder, former chief executive and, some would say,spiritual leader of listed biotech company Genesis Research - stepped down from the board last week. But suggestions that he might be deserting a sinking ship are way off the mark.
Watson says he is busier than ever working to spin out a new energy company from the plant science division, AgriGenesis.
The company plans to farm a woody shrub called falix to produce ethanol for fuel and biogradable plastics.
There is a huge global market for ethanol and, as oil prices rise, so will the premium
on alternative ingredients for plastics, Watson says.
Genesis believes its patented technology will allow it to produce the products more efficiently. It is working with the Lake Taupo Development Co, which is looking for farming alternatives to dairying - a major cause of nitrate pollution.
Private investors will be sought for the new company. Lake Taupo Development and Genesis will hold equity stakes.
Genesis shares were trading at 27c yesterday.

Sounds promising. So GEN's sp falls 3c (12%) to 24 this morning. Go figure.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Has anyone done the math on this?

If GEN stays at 25c and a spin out occurs what will that be for an existing holder. If the spin out is valued at the 30c ascribed the patents by Arborgen then if you buy now that will represent a 120% payout.

I cannot understand why there is not more buying interest on this.

Why would anyone wait til it is too late?
JOLLY [DONNER] I cant understand that after losing so much money on this dog that you would still rave on about it in its death throes trying to get people to buy into the bloody thing. macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, My opinion has been consistent from the start. From $7 to 30c what more is required to convince you its a dog. Plenty companies out there for me to look at without wasting time to see if there is 5c to be made at the end. Get a stop loss going for you, you might have only lost a little not a whole bank roll being right all the time. macdunk

[COLIN]

Can't be long to go now before all the cash runs out, GEN sloses up shop, and the bearded scientists will be looking to find another pot of gold somewhere else where they can dabble away to their heart's content, not having to worry about horrible investors who keep asking awkward questions about getting a return on their investment some day. I gave up on this one long ago.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by COLIN

the bearded scientists will be looking to find another pot of gold somewhere else where they can dabble away to their heart's content,


Reminds me of the time I used to work at a research institute where the bearded scientists clad with Roman sandals, walk shorts and big collar polyester shirts did indeed dabble away blissfully on their research projects with little regard to the expenses they were incurring or the financial benefits of their research. 'Economics' was a dirty word to these types. Much of the time they did research for the sake of research, if there was a pot of money provided by the Govt and producer boards (or in the case of Genesis, sucker shareholders) it had to be spent. Then when the pot is empty you just ask for more cash since you claim 'still more research needs to be done in the project'. No problem if there is a steady income stream from the taxpayer or farmer that ask few questions.

SEC

[paul29]

Amgen, the world's largest biotech company which has an indirect interest in Genesis through its ownership of Immunex, another US biotech with a 6.5% stake in Genesis.


"For 10 years critics said Amgen couldn't develop a film, let alone a product," Then in the early '90s, after a decade of failure, it ran into commercial success. Now it is a Fortune 500 company with sales last year of $US12.4 billion.

GEN is a punt and COULD pay off one day ;)

[paul29]

Jolly,like i said GEN is a punt


quote:You sound as short and small minded as the author of that article.
so do you JOLLY:(

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, Learn something from every experience dont try to be right all the time. This might turn you into a very expert investor with systems that look through the bullsh*t into reality. Read this thtead from start to finish then get back and beat the crap out of us. Macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Not a single word on going forward nor what the year has been like.

Talk about keep them guessing. There is a lot going on here and they don't want to tell the market anything more than they must it would seem. Doesn't matter really. This is just the preliminary. Before nine weeks is up from Dec 31 they have to report in full. With that should be the Chairman's and CEO's commentary.


Yes, it is certainly a model of concise-ness.
One assumes they are working on the principle taught them by their parents: "If you have nothing nice to say, say nothing".

I think under NZX rules they have met their obligation to file their full year announcement (honest!) and the next deadline is the issue of the annual report which must be by the end of March.

So we can all sleep in for the next five weeks.

[tsb]

ACC worked this out months ago!

[Ngapuke]

Sorry Jolly, I'm a bit thick, and have difficulty understanding your post... are you imputing a value of 25c per GEN share to the spin-out company? I vaguely recall there are some 26m shares in GEN, which would mean you're imputing a value of around NZ$6.5m (~US$4m)to BioJoule .... ?


quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Has anyone figured this out? Does anyone remember NOG and PPP? When is a dividend not a dividend?

GEN is to get cash from Arborgen that puts it at a value of 30c per share. It already has cash that gives up 19c per share. 49c of cash. IP, infrastructure and listing for free.

A spin off company to come. This is no longer speculation. The above article confirms it. At say 25c to be cheap about it.

Thats a 25c dividend out of company that has 49c of cash and is trading at 30c.

Now is that sound investing or not?

[Snow Leopard]

The question "Is GEN worthless" has been raised by a frequent poster to this thread.
The answer in my opinion is not yet.

Reading the full year report available here (http://www.genesis.co.nz/Investors/documents/GenesisAnnualReport2005.pdf) the big statement immediately behind the cover is that the company has 3 years of cash reserves, once it gets it's ArborGen settlement, which is better than most biotechs in the region.

Yes folks they proudly proclaim they will take longer to go bust than most. OK in three years they may be able to get one of their irons to the point where it either brings them a cash sum or an income stream. But what is the probability of such an event? And even if it does eventuate will it be the goldmine that shareholders hope for or enough for the company to survive for a while longer?

GEN currently trades a little above NTA, but when ArborGen is settled the NTA will rise by about $0.35 a share, so why is it not trading at a higher price?
1) They do not have the money yet and given past experience you can not be sure when they will get it.
2) When they do get it, what will happen with it? It will be spent on research.
The NTA of this company will continue to fall, the annual results will continue to show a loss.

Could it be that a discount to NTA is appropiate and the reason is that it actually trades above is that the ArborGen settlement is factored in?

Shall we talk track record, company management etc? Perhaps that is best left alone.

This is an extremely speculative share. Not one I would spend my lotto money on.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by whatsup

WW Sept 2000 listing at $6.00 & $4.6Aust raised $34 mil Kiwi

JOLLY, You seem to be obsessed with this company. Take a look at the money lost how much of it is yours?. macdunk

[Phaedrus]

Jolly, Investors often use a 200 day moving average to make sure that they keep on the right side of major trends. You can see that GEN is still below such a moving average. This means "Don't buy".

Price action is, however, quite close to the 200ema. If/when GEN breaks above it, this would constitute permission to buy, rather than a Buy signal. The end of a downtrend does not automatically mean the beginning of an uptrend. GEN could track sideways for years before trending up - or continuing its downtrend.

After a downtrend of this strength and duration, prudent punters would want to see an uptrend before buying. This would require prices to break above the previous high of 40 cents. (Blue line)

Not for me, but then you knew that - right?

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2006-2/1151662/GEN59001.gif

[clearasmud]

Gen Should get to over 40 soon based purely on their bank account

$15m? = 55c a share?

[lanenz]

They have always had good cash compared to the SP. The biggest problem is the UV (burn) factor.

[Phaedrus]

".....there are other indicators such as MACD, OBV RSI etc that can give buy indicators before the 200EMA is crossed allowing the investor to get in on the ground floor of a break out".
Quite right Jolly, not only can they give signals before the 200ema is crossed, they in fact give plenty of signals. The question is, how reliable, how useful, are RSI and MACD signals on a stock that is in a downtrend? The chart below makes the answer to this question very obvious.

You seem keen on finding some technically based good news to support your fundamental based assessment. To Jolly you along I have added a long-term trendline. This gave a trendline break Buy signal about 2 months ago, giving an entry at 30 cents. This was an isolated signal lacking any confirmation. It has not as yet been followed by an uptrend.

A lot of people have lost a lot of money on this stock. In view of that, I would have thought that "taking a safe and conservative approach" would be the way to go here. Jolly, for a "Value-based Investor" your approach sure is a lot more speculative than mine. Good luck!

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GEN510001.gif

[Phaedrus]

"So what then of the three higher lows?"

Oh they are real enough. Just as real as the succession of lower highs.

Look back over the years and you can see maybe 6 periods where there were a few successive higher lows. Interesting, but without the accompaniment of higher highs they are of no great import.

What we have here is a downtrend. An uptrend requires higher lows AND higher highs.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

All very interesting Phaedrus. Thank you for your input.

The graph highlights one thing not mentioned; for the first time in six years the LTT has been broken.

I guess that doesn't mean the start of a new upwards trend, but it might. So I think it's more a case of watch this space than it is a case of steer clear.
Look on it as amber about to turn red. Sorry Jolly I couldnt stop having a jolly good laugh. macdunk
ps sorry

[Phaedrus]

Jolly,
It is indeed quite common to use the crossover of 2 moving averages as a means of generating buy/sell signals. I have used 200/1 on my chart, you prefer 100/30. Many people have their own personal favourite combination. Some use 3 moving averages.
In actual fact, I don't like such a system for the following reasons :-
(1) Backtesting usually shows this system as being less profitable than many others.
(2) The specific periods used are completely arbitrary and can be varied at will to give (or not give) signals as you desire.
(3) The selection of either simple or exponential ma's makes a big difference.
If we look at the 100/30 combination that you suggest, we find that, right now, using simple ma's the 30 is above the 100, while with exponential ma's the 30 is below the 100. Which one is "right"? I don't think it really matters here because either way, previous signals turned out to be bum steers. The requirement here is for an indicator that kept you out of this stock for over 5 years, not one that periodically fired off buy signals.

[Ngapuke]

Someone said to me recently that one of the down-sides of being a listed company is that people examine and debate any scrap of news about the company (real or imagined) as if they were reading tea-leaves. Perhaps this thread should be re-named "Over The Teacups"?

[tsb]

no keep going Phaedrus
I should have learnt more about charting yonks ago. Your posts are informative and helpfull

[clearasmud]

When they get the us5.5 mil this share will fly

Regards,
Clearasmud

[lanenz]

Jolly.

With your post i would have to say the oposite with 90% of it.

[duncan macgregor]

I see the shareholders have approved a salary rise of $100000 to make it $245000 a year salary for directors. Thats not bad it only means its down the gurgler sooner rather than later. macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

and they would like the government to give them $5m for research (and directors fees) (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3679937a13,00.html)

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, The directors have given themselves $100000 pay rise to $250000 pa at this moment in time. Surely even you must see the writing on the wall. Macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

Every share should have it's enthusiast and Jolly it is very kind of you to continue to remind us of the possibilities that GEN offers.
Indeed I feel like a lone voice myself speaking up for Mainfreight (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=20192&whichpage=10) :).

Should GEN ever meet my investment criteria then I would of course buy in.

[tsb]

ah - but did he buy his $150K worth of stock from his $150K pay rise? He appears honest.

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, It seems you like outsiders so i will give you one. SPY is a much better bet than GEN look it up. Its a penny dreadfull that looks like it might come in. Another penny dreadfull that i hold is PPP. Both those companies are trading at a lower sp than GEN but both have a better potential for a good profit. It seems unfair of me picking on you with GEN without letting you know what penny dreadfull companies that i have an interest in. macdunk
DISCL hold PPP thinking about SPY

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Those with any kind of mind might want to take a look at the AGM presentation below. Noteworthy is the blurb on Biojoule and the chairman's comments that GEN is shifting gear and will be a different animal.

Such comments sound like recap and restructure, don't they? And I guess maybe biojoule is the first sign of this.

http://genesis.co.nz/Press_Releases/documents/Annual%20Meeting%20Presentation%202006.pdf

OK, I looked at it.
So a whole new beginning (yeah right!), perhaps they should call themselves Genesis.
BioJoule seems to be dependent upon the Government/others giving it money to spend, are GEN actually going to continue to contribute to the party?

It still says in big letters
CASH BURN

a speculative punt.

[Lawso]

Among the Queen's Birthday honours:

COMPANION OF THE NZ ORDER OF MERIT
Dr James Douglas Watson, Auckland, for services to scientific and medical research.

Feeling better, shareholders?

[winner69]

... but not for services to business (or shareholders)

good guy though ...... science wise that is .... well deserved

[tsb]

yeah right

[ognid]

Jolly been following your posts for some time. I think your on the money.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by ognid

Jolly been following your posts for some time. I think your on the money.

not just the name that is backwards then?

[Snow Leopard]

Just a bit of fun. Could not resist it, even with a ?new poster?

regards
Paper Tiger

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Just a bit of fun. Could not resist it, even with a ?new poster?

regards
Paper Tiger

PUDDY CAT PUDDY CAT WE LUV YOU YES WE DO, YOU AND YOUR PUDDY CAT SH*T. Having a JOLLY good laugh at the new boys expence, shame on you. macdunk

[ognid]

New Boys???. I think me and jolly will be having the last laugh on this one,or rather it might be a Slam Duncan.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by ognid

New Boys???. I think me and jolly will be having the last laugh on this one,or rather it might be a Slam Duncan.
Its all been done before good luck my doggy friend.
Macdunk

[ognid]

Why have you not learnt then?.

[ognid]

Jolly who do you think is buying heavy today??

[Snow Leopard]

<s>Jolly</s> ognid, it was fortunate that you chose to post on the same day that Jolly happened to look in on the forum.

Disc: Good stuff this Monteiths Hearty Black

[ognid]

Is this as good as it gets on this thread Paper Tiger?. Please sophisticated investors preferred, like the one(s) who did all the buying today in GEN.

[duncan macgregor]

I think you might be mixed up on that one the sp dropped 2c to 30cents today. macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by ognid

Is this as good as it gets on this thread Paper Tiger?. Please sophisticated investors preferred, like the one(s) who did all the buying today in GEN.

I am afraid so. Just me and your schizophrenic self.
Definitely massive volume today ($96,740 [:0]) 34th on the exchange by value, 10th by volume; we have not seen such numbers since the mega trade of the 2nd March 2005.
Now the big question is: was the sophisticated investor(s) doing the buying or the selling.
Only time will tell whether I or your gestalt entity has the better handle on this company.

best wishes

Paper Tiger

[ognid]

No mix up MacDunk reading it like a fine sunny day. Paper Tiger all the bullys in this world eventually fade into the abyss. Burn Baby Burn.

[ognid]

Bravo Jolly. Could not agree with you more. Your a breath of fresh air. Analysts sit up and take note. I know who'll i'll be taking to the Bahamas to sip margaritas with me once this baby takes off.

[ognid]

and were off and running.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Do I understand this right?

If I buy GEN now I am buying 45c of cash for 29c?

Gee. I think thats pretty good but I guess there must be something wrong because the market hasn't responded the way it should. Ah well, I guess the market is always right, eh?

No worries mate the market has got it right. Come back next year and tell me how much is left of the 45c. macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Do I understand this right?

If I buy GEN now I am buying 45c of cash for 29c?

Gee. I think thats pretty good but I guess there must be something wrong because the market hasn't responded the way it should. Ah well, I guess the market is always right, eh?

You have been around this forum for a long time so I presume that you actually aware of the true answer to your questions.

Buying a share is like buying a locked box to which someone else (the company management/directors) has the key. It does not matter what is in the box when you buy it, what matters is what those with the key intend to do with it's contents over time.
Here they intend to spend it on research and development which may or may not yield future revenue.

Try this: I have a locked box and the key with $1100 in it. I will use the key to buy a power dip lotto ticket every week for 100 weeks. Any winnings I will put back in the box, and after 100 weeks you can have the key. So how much would you be willing to pay here and now for the box without the key?

[ognid]

ahh finally some wisdom from the burnt out tiger. Imagine if you had the wisdom to see whats in the locked up box. What would you do then?. Is it buying a lottery ticket or buying an interest in the lottery ticket issuer?.

[Snow Leopard]

Finally is a little strong seeing as I have said nothing I have not said before on this thread, just in a different way.
You have been told what is in the locked box, money to be spent on lotto tickets.

[ognid]

i suggest you might like to consider buying one my crispy fried tiger because the jackpot on this one is increasing all the time. You know what happens to jackpots my feline relative? - they eventually all go off.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by ognid

i suggest you might like to consider buying one my crispy fried tiger because the jackpot on this one is increasing all the time. You know what happens to jackpots my feline relative? - they eventually all go off.
YOU are right again dingo this one has been off for years.
macdunk

[ognid]

Macca is you stop reading backwards you might finally go forwards.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by ognid

i suggest you might like to consider buying one my crispy fried tiger because the jackpot on this one is increasing all the time. You know what happens to jackpots my feline relative? - they eventually all go off.

you have 100 shots at it remember? and the odds of one particular ticket winning are?

[ognid]

Somatoform tigers always ignore good advice.

[duncan macgregor]

Into the mental stuff at uni then dingo?.

[ognid]

Macca i think you should re-direct your question to the psychology major in this thread. Mr "gestalt entity" crispy fried tiger.

[Enumerate]

I am getting increasingly bullish on GEN.NZX.

The announcement this week, by Trevor Mallard, that SOE's will now be encouraged to fund/resource some business development opportunities is great news for the biotech sector.

I must confess that I am very impressed with the Salix biofuel proposal. It will have the benefits of reducing CO2 emissions, soaking up some of the central North Island waterway fertiliser runoff, harnessing geothermal energy, making a useful dent into petrol fuel additive production and producing a useful amount of raw materials for other industries (replacing petrochemical sources).

If this idea can't attract some SOE interest - I don't know what will.

Jolly's point about big-pharma is also interesting. There does seem to be international demand for research skills/patents. Again, this is a GEN.NZX strength. The RNA.i IP looks increasingly attractive.

With the settlement of the Arbourgen money ... things hare been tidied up in this area, as well.

I reckon they are a BUY, up to about $0.30.

Of course there is a significant risk that no commercial benefits will be attained. In this case - they are worth nothing. However, I believe the chance of this happening is about 33% (down from about 50% before the events above). Hence, I was happy to pay about $0.25, before - now, they are worth more.

/disclosure: accumulating

[Snow Leopard]

Enumerate: Well done on taking the plunge, I wish you the best on this.

MacDunk: It looks like we can leave this thread alone now, Enumerate is taking over the job of stopping Jolly from talking to himself.

Perhaps we could all meet up for donner kebabs and crispy fried tiger prawns at the Jolly Dingo sometime.

[ognid]

Paper Tiger I cannot figure out why you think I and Jolly are the same person. We are not. I have been following Jolly's thread for quite some time and I just like Jolly believe Gen will deliver the goods. I have followed Gen since IPO. I will not disclose my holding but what I will say is that I always put my money where my mouth is.
I wanted Jolly to know he wasn't a lone voice, and now we have more believers. I think we need more closet supporters to come out because this company is going to reward us all one day soon.

Good Luck to all who believe what I and Jolly believe. Our time is coming.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Enumerate, you strike me as being an intelligent, articulate and well reasoned person. It therefore, begs the question of why just 30c for your valuation when they have 45c of cash right now? A 10% discount would leave it at 40c. You statement of the IP being worthless is not correct. I am sure it could be sold and if worst came to worst the company could be wound up and holders paid out in cash. Not a good alternative I agree but puts paid to the worthless claim.

Perhaps I might be allowed to tell you why JOLLY DINGO. It is like buying a bucket of milk with a hole in it.
You start with 45c worth but by the time you get home you find out that there is only 30c worth left. Then again it depends on how big the hole gets on the way home chances are nothing left. macdunk

[Heavy Metal]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


Perhaps I might be allowed to tell you why JOLLY DINGO. It is like buying a bucket of milk with a hole in it.
You start with 45c worth but by the time you get home you find out that there is only 30c worth left. Then again it depends on how big the hole gets on the way home chances are nothing left. macdunk


To take this analogy further, all the milk flowing out the hole is going to waste. Much like the cash at Genesis.

[Enumerate]

There is an excellent extract from a PBS documentary on RNAi at the following site:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3210/02.html

GEN.NZX is very well positioned to produce RNAi's for immunology and plant growth and development.

RNAi technology is the biggest thing in biology since the discovery of the double helix ...

Isn't it nice to know that NZ can produce a world class biotech organisation producing commercial applications at the forefront of RNAi research? If this doesn't make you happy - perhaps GEN could produce a RNAi cure for your "unhappy gene"!

[ognid]

Enumerate, the RNAi cure for the "unhappy gene" is here and is working well on myself and guess who? his name says it all.

In all seriousness, i predict there will be some unhappy felines and other sorts out there when GEN elects to reward its devotees.

[Enumerate]

I think Paper Tiger and MacDunk are right to suggest caution. There is, after all, a significant chance that GEN.NZX could end up on the financial scrapheap. Also, I would not expect Paper Tiger to be unhappy in the event GEN found some commercial success.

It all comes down to "risk vs reward". I still think there is a positive expectation - other people disagree. However, events could easily turn this negative (or even more positive!); so a careful watch is needed.

Ideally, I think GEN could be an incubator of a number of new biotech businesses. The key thing here is that they have the information (gene libraries, singalling tests, etc) and in some cases potential patent protection. What they don't have is the capital or time for wide scope survey programmes.

I believe they have a number of siRNA's that could be a useful part of a RNAi theraputic process. Hence, there could be partnerships to explore ...

I have the feeling that the biotech industry, today, is a bit like the semi-conductor industry in the late 50's. The basic science has been done (GaAs doping - semiconductor; RNAi - biotech) and now the hunt is on for the key commercial processes (the transistor, the integrated circuit, the microprocessor ...).

Finally, GEN has the capability to significantly influence health and agriculture, in NZ. More capital will need to be invested to fully attain the "biotech promise".

[Ngapuke]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

There is an excellent extract from a PBS documentary on RNAi at the following site:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/3210/02.html


Hey, thanks for that link to the PBS site, Enumerate. V. interesting.

[ognid]

Enumerate, everything about GEN and the way it has been run for the past few years suggest these guys are in for the long haul. What I read in Gen is a company being slowly nurtured to commercial success. There is no get rich quick scheme here. No greed by management. Gen impresses all round except on the boards thus far. I am confident Gen will deliver and if you look at the company closely, this bio-show is one of the best value-run risks curremtly around. STRONG BUY.

[ognid]

Jolly, Your the Guru on this one and i respect very much what you have to say. I have faith this crop of directors will do the right thing and look after the company first all the way. But as we have seen time and time again in life generally people can get swayed by self-interest. Not currently happening in Gen and hope it never does. But like the tiger says or was it macca - time may prove me wrong or right.

Stay True Jolly, no reason to doubt at this stage.

[Enumerate]

I think equity partnerships are the most likely outcome. The NZ Government has interest to protect and "big-pharma" needs an unending stream of innovation.

Arborgen should have been the example of how this could work. It turned into a disaster. I don't know who is to blame - but I would suggest if you are going to swim with sharks you should really have a kevlar body suit and not have any cuts or grazes.

For me, the acid test is whether the salix biofuel project gets off the ground. The basic funding, for this, should be in place this year. If not, I would seriously doubt the company's ability to make a commercial deal for anything.

I would also expect some siRNA activity in the form of partnerships with "big pharma". GEN could be part of a RNAi push into one of the "big" diseases - athsma, for example.

Imagine if GEN found a RNAi theraputic for breast cancer, say. This is the "winning lotto" outcome. However, they are in with a chance. Key point is that GEN knows immunology and this class of diseases are very good candidates for RNAi approaches.

Alot of money will be raised in the US/Europe/Japan for a "big push" on key disease groups. Alot is at stake - the winners will get very very rich - the losers will be thrown in a ditch.

On balance, the restructured board reflects the hard nosed commercial skills that are necessary to have a shot at the big time. Make no mistake - after 2 failed clinical trials and the Arborgen disaster GEN has its back to the wall. However, as US "big pharma" will spend hundreds of million$ and have the same effect as GEN spending a few million.

With focus, intuition and luck .... last roll of the dice, guys.

[ognid]

Enumerate, I like it.

GEN could do with three new cats to join the board. Breath of fresh air.

Looks like this trip to the Bahamas is gaining more passengers all the time.

[ognid]

Crispy Tiger - Macca, getting too hot in the kicthen is it??.

The stars are aligning on this one my two hot collared friends.

Ships Ahoy.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Fancy, having paid $6 or more at IPO time on the back of all the promises and hooplah made at the time only to see it whittle down to 30c by design and then have a bunch of stuffed shirts come in and steal all which you have paid for in good faith. And the great thing is, that this time you can stop it from happening as badly as what it might be otherwise.

DINGO I think that Your other self JOLLY, or is it DONNER said it all for you. Speaking for the toothless one, tigers dont fight over scraps and bones prefer to leave it to the dingoes to worry over.
JEEZE i do hope they leave you a bone to chew on at the end.
macdunk

[ognid]

Nothing wrong with a bit of comedy Macca. But Jeeze i can smell some cash around soon. Have good sense of smell.

[Snow Leopard]

I return to this thread, breaking the vow of silence I took on the last page, to make the following statements:
ONE: duncan macgregor is not authorised to speak on behalf of The Paper Tiger
TWO: duncan macgregor is especially not authorised to call me the toothless one.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

I return to this thread, breaking the vow of silence I took on the last page, to make the following statements:
ONE: duncan macgregor is not authorised to speak on behalf of The Paper Tiger
TWO: duncan macgregor is especially not authorised to call me the toothless one.
I had a very good reason to call you the toothless one.
RUPERT the bear in AUSTRALIA has been banned for some unknown reason so there goes the AUSSIE share competition for the year. We have a tiger that runs the investor competition plus the trader competition threatening a poor doggy dingo with his superior investing skills.
I only tried to soften your image shoulder some of the blame so that i can beat you up in the trader comp. macdunk

[ognid]

Oh Dear whats this trouble in the dissenters corner is it?

Your always welcome to join the fray in the PROGEN Supporters corner should it turn into a full on tiger mauling.

[ognid]

Jeeze Jolly, now I'm beggining to think we are the same person. I dropped a major hint in my last post about mergers and acquisitions on this one. Read carefully, only i'm honning in on that dreaded disease. I congratulate you on your lateral thinking Jolly.

Will you join me for that celebratory drink one day??.

[ognid]

Unfair advantage, C U Later.

[Enumerate]

Have a look at this link:

http://www.forbes.com/2003/07/01/cx_mh_moleculeslide.html

GEN has interests in 2 out of the 5 ...

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Looking at my crystal ball today I saw GEN make a move for ASX:BLT in order to snaffle up their IP and monopolize RNAi R&D throughout the Australasian region.


ASX:BLT - what an interesting company.

Their presence in California, due to a takeover, is an inspired move. The are well connected, it seems, with "big pharma" and have a couple of products in or about to be in phase 1 clinical trials.

(Oops, only 1, as of today 22/6 - they shut down the HepC trial).

In terms of global science and connections - you'd have to rate it better than GEN.NZX. However, in terms of financial health - you'd have to say it is significantly worse.

The dilution of the share register is highly advanced with BLT.ASX. Taking heed of Jolly's warnings - this could be the path GEN.NZX stumbles down.

The three killer things I like are: two RNAi theraputic processes about to enter clinical trials and the hinted at alliegence with a "big pharma" group.

The stock has taken an bath since restructuring/downsizing announcement. It is trading at about AUD$0.052 - about 2 cents higher than NTA where that NTA is largely the IP value. Compare this with GEN.NZX - which is a fraction of the cash NTA.

I can't honestly see any M&A activity here, mediated by GEN. BLT clearly already have a number of ardent suitors.

I am also not sure if GEN RNAi assets (mRNA) would assist BLT. I believe GEN has an Athsma and TB focus; BLT a HIV, HepC focus. Lung tissue is a different kettle of fish to Liver tissue.

BLT is a likely model for GEN (including some things to avoid). Lets hope GEN is sitting with a couple of RNAi theraputics in phase 1 trial for some big disease groups. Lets hope this can be achieved soon.

[Enumerate]

Jolly, yes, you are right. The cash situation must be critical. They are continuing with the HIV trial only because it is funded.

It does look like ASX.BLT is now "in play".

I suppose the question is will the "big pharma" partners take the big bite or the VC funds?

[ognid]

I write my last Post due to the venom displayed by Jolly last night on this thread. Conveniently, it now seems to have disappeared. Did you call in another favour Mr Jolly?.

I believe, you have unnecesarily destroyed an otherwise informative,jovial and good heart GEN thread with your "*****" post last night. Do you think people want to read such immature posts?

Over and Out.

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

[quote][if anyone listened to her comments on GEN they would have sold only to end up missing out on what will be a great turnaround story for GEN, its investors, the industry and the country as a whole.



Since you have been desperately waving your arms around trying to get my attention I will put you out of your misery.

If anyone had listened to my comments (and those of other detractors) on BLT they may have come out with some of their capital intact. I have not changed my opinion on GEN either.

Citigroup has never 'had' GEN, or BLT. This is an outright lie.

Each time you think you've scraped the bottom of the integrity and truth barrel, you wake up another day and find that there is still more space in which we can all descend.

[Enumerate]

In 24 March of this year BLT.ASX appointed Mike Dalling to the board. Sara Cunningham and Mike Calelani resigned as directors on the 22 June. Mike Dalling effectively takes the CEO role on this date. US operations are officially shutdown.

I interpret this as the final stage of the re-Aussification of BLT.

Dalling is a Victorian and (as a guess) the transfer of BLT.ASX equipment and methods has been back to Victoria, where he maintains his biotech network.

I also note that in January, this year, that IND filing was delayed due to problems associated with the HIV/AIDS theraputic modality. Again, on the 22nd, they announce a resumption in manufacturing.

City of Hope maintain their own manufacturing facility - to allow them to conduct trials independent of pharma company resources.

My guess is that the expense of the Phase I clinicals is now being bourn by City of Hope. They have been passed "the ball" and this is their chance to "get it over the line".

Further, I'd guess that BLT.ASX is now just a shell (with cash and an impressive patent estate).

If the HIV/AIDS phase 1 goes well - BLT.ASX will be back in business.

Plan B is to shake out some cash to do the HepC phase 1.

At the moment, defending the patent estate is more important than doing more fundamental research. They seem to have largely beaten off the "prior art" challenges. They are in a wonderful position, IP-wise, as they have best delivery mechanisms for RNAi theraputics. If they had some cash to continue the research, Mountain View would still exist.

Meanwhile, the world holds its breath on the outcome of the HIV/AIDS phase 1 at City of Hope.

My guess, is that they have a 50% chance at "knocking the bastard off ..." (applying Ed Hillary to the fight against AIDS).

If this works - we are talking front cover of TIME magazine etc etc

If is doesnt work - there is a viable plan B. Although having said this - the chance of success, here, would be significantly lower based on the failure mode uncovered in the HIV/AIDS phase 1.

I find this terribly exciting. History could record that HIV/AIDS was first defeated at the City of Hope in LA! The BLT.ASX shareholders may not get quite so much of the limelight - but they will get rich.

I sense that BLT.ASX directors are keeping any funds they have at the ready to fend off the turf war that will erupt if HIV/AIDS is beaten. (I also not they have a Lloyds of London insurance policy against litigation). This explains the board mix - IP Lawyers, Biotech venture capitalists and Scientists with commercialisation track record.

[Capitalist]

I thought ~I~ was the only company plant on ShareTrader? :D

I'm sure even Jolly can see through this canard [}:)]

Cover of Time Magazine indeed.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist
I thought ~I~ was the only company plant on ShareTrader? :D
I'm sure even Jolly can see through this canard [}:)]
Cover of Time Magazine indeed.


For the record, since my integrity is being questioned:

I have no links with Benitec apart from the fact that this week I bought a few shares.

I think that if an investor understands RNAi and has a dig through the Benitec patent estate - that investor will be very excited.

Further, I think if an investor understands the HIV/AIDS theraputic modalities produced by Benitec and the tools created to refine and invent new modalities by Benitec - that investor would be very excited.

On the other hand, the cash position is a nightmare.

Further, if the prior post is a canard, that would make Robert Thomas (Citigroup boss) a sitting duck! (pun intended)

Finally, if I were to ramp BLT.ASX, why would I do it in a GEN.NZX thread?

I think BLT.ASX is a model (in terms of science) for GEN.NZX. I would love to see GEN.NZX dominating the RNAi field to the degree that BLT.ASX does.

[Enumerate]

The phase 1 trials at City of Hope are proceeding thanks to a US Govt grant.

The BLT RNAi patent base is so fundamental that even if they don't control the development spend of the industry - they will participate in key developments through royalties.

All they need is a key win - the money will follow.

They have minor royalty amounts rolling in - I think they will survive.

I wish them luck on the HIV/AIDS trials. Next stop, HCV and then a third, unannounced, trial in the wings.

What a wonderful company - everything except the cash position.

[Enumerate]

J, when do you think GEN holders will hear some news on the Salix/Ethanol ideas JW has been putting about.

Ethanol production is big business in the US corn belt and the JW ideas are even more efficient (in terms of an energy cycle).

Further, I understand auto fuel could go up to 85% ethanol (as opposed to 3% in JW's presentation).

Of course the big petrochemical companies have no incentive to allow a local start up swallow a big piece of their market. There may be a whole pile of fud (fear, uncertainty, doubt) circulating in Wellington as big oil protects its patch.

[Capitalist]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

[quote
Further, if the prior post is a canard, that would make Robert Thomas (Citigroup boss) a sitting duck! (pun intended)
Finally, if I were to ramp BLT.ASX, why would I do it in a GEN.NZX thread?



Just read this. FYI Robert Thomas is nothing to do with Citi. I have asked around (and offshore) and no one has heard of him. We are getting a little bit tired of the concerted attempt to defame C - who has no interest whatsoever in BLT and GEN - by certain members of ST looking for a fallman to blame when their investment does not pay off.

Enumerate is clearly ramping this stock,I suggest he is "Rob Thomas" for the record.

[Capitalist]

BTW you and jolly are getting very short on your rope.

You mention Citigroup again in relation to insider trading re this stock - when we are trading many billions per day in NZ, as if we would be interested in $2k GEN - you will be tracked down and prosecuted for defamation.

[rmbbrave]

Are you serious?

Citigroup would be crazy to bring a libel or defamation suit. It would simply make people sit up and take notice of these rumours.

Remember what happened to McDonalds when they sued Morris & Steel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McLibel

[Capitalist]

GEN is hardly in the McD's category.

This is about a stalker who has been after me for years Brave - and I suspect you know that.

Jolly pretended he was a woman at one point - and I suspect Enumerate is another of his personas. He is insane. I don't care if he quotes my full name - which he tracked down on the internet- he has nothing on me or Citigroup.

Bring it on.

PS Anyway I am sick of him - he can put up or shut up.

[rmbbrave]

So sue then.

I call your bluff.

Stop whining about suing and just do it!

You'll be unlikely to get Citibank involved in any of your personal vendettas.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

GEN is hardly in the McD's category.



Of course it isn't but Citibank is.

[Capitalist]

Indeed Jolly should stop complaining and blaming others for his incompetance.

Is it ok for Jolly to blame my bank for his incompetance, when my bank has NO INTEREST IN GEN, AND HE IS MERELY ON A PERSONAL JIHAD?

I don't think so. Give me proof. That is all I am asking Robert. Surely you believe that is fair. The onus of proof that Citi is involved in insider trading with GEN is on him from here on in.

(NB This thread has been sent to other parties - I'm sick of this defamatory ****)

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate
[quote
Further, if the prior post is a canard, that would make Robert Thomas (Citigroup boss) a sitting duck! (pun intended)
Finally, if I were to ramp BLT.ASX, why would I do it in a GEN.NZX thread?



Just read this. FYI Robert Thomas is nothing to do with Citi. I have asked around (and offshore) and no one has heard of him. We are getting a little bit tired of the concerted attempt to defame C - who has no interest whatsoever in BLT and GEN - by certain members of ST looking for a fallman to blame when their investment does not pay off.

Enumerate is clearly ramping this stock,I suggest he is "Rob Thomas" for the record.



Quote from the 2005 BLT.ASX annual accounts - profiles of the directors:

Robert Thomas, 60
Non-Executive Director and Deputy
Chairman
Qualifications
B Econ, FSIA
Experience
Chairman, Citigroup Global Corporate &
Investment Bank, Australia and New Zealand
and has over 30 years experience in
the securities industry

Mr Thomas has a significant holding in BLT.ASX - hence the reference in my pun.

I am clearly not ramping BLT.ASX. If you read my posts I am simply presenting facts in support of my views on BLT.ASX and GEN.NZX.

I am prepared to cite my references, if necessary.

I also am very clear, in my views, on the risks.

I think you owe me a formal apology, Capitalist. I take issues of integrity very seriously. If you are any kind of professional, so should you.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist
BTW you and jolly are getting very short on your rope.

You mention Citigroup again in relation to insider trading re this stock - when we are trading many billions per day in NZ, as if we would be interested in $2k GEN - you will be tracked down and prosecuted for defamation.


Please quote one instance where I have suggested that Citigroup is involved with insider trading.

Methinks you doth protest too much ...

Perhaps, if you are indeed a Citigroup insider, that your defensive comments may indicate a sensitivity to the issue ?!?

If I may be allowed to interpret my pun ...

Mr Robert Thomas has a large holding in BLT.ASX, you describe my positive assessment of BLT.ASX as a "canard" which I take to mean a "fabrication". This would make Mr Robert Thomas a sitting duck for his exposure to the stock. French for duck is "canard", hence the pun.

Sheesh Capitalist, I must seriously doubt the quality of your educators.

You have accused me of ramping. THAT is defamation.

Where is your proof or where is your apology.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Whats the French equivalent of the Japanese "shigatta ja nai yo"?


Merci de votre réponse gentille

She has even accused me of being you!! Good god, is there no end to the paranoid delusions.

I am still waiting for my apology.

I am too upset with recent events to turn my thoughts to GEN.NZX. There are a number of points to be made - but sharetrader has turned into a very unfriendly place.

[Enumerate]

RAMPING - from the French rampe; from ramper, to slope, rise up; from Old French

In financial markets ramping is commonly applied to the practice of "talking up" a share that you actually wish to sell.

To accuse someone of ramping is to accuse someone of a crime (or at the very least seriously impugn their integrity).

Capitalist, you have accused me of ramping BLT.ASX.

This accusation is unfounded because at the time of my initial posts I had no BLT.ASX to sell. I now have some - but am acutally interested in buying more! What I post is the result of my research into the share.

You are perfectly free to address my interpretation of the facts; but you never do. I have had to defend myself against your questioning my integrity three times. I have called for an apology from you, twice.

This is the third time: where is my apology?

Perhaps you think you can accuse anyone of anything you like; purposefully question people's integrity without merit? If so, I would suggest you are not a useful member of the sharetrader.co.nz community and it would be my recommendation to the moderator that you be banned.

[Enumerate]

Investors should understand a couple of key points about biotech as an industry:

- development cycles can be very very fast (comparable with software; unlike computers or silicon chips)
- production costs can be very very low (comparable with software; unlike computers or silicon chips)
- commercialisation (in terms of theraputics) can take a very long time and cost an enormous amount (unlike software, unlike computers or silicon chips)
- however, once established, a theraputic acquires an enormous commercial "momentum"

Biotech is the ultimate "rock star" industry - many many failures; but the rewards of success are huge.

RNAi is likely to be viewed as the most significant discovery of biology in the 20th century.

DNA structure in the 50's was important - but not commercially relevant (in the whole) because DNA is "passive" in terms of cell dyamics.

The structure of protiens in the 30's was also very important. Here, it is also more commercially relevant, as most current drug development targets proteins either directly or indirectly (antibody/antigen binding, for example).

RNAi offers the ability to directly control protein production in cells.

THIS IS A REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT

RNAi will allow all aspects of cell biology (growth, reproduction, repair, protein production, senescence) to be controlled.

Humans consist of about 1,000,000 types of proteins produced by about 30,000 genes (number getting smaller as research progresses - 20k in some quarters).

The pharmacuetical industry spends hundreds of billion$ finding compounds to deal with millions of protein targets. Detailed investigation into the biochemical pathway that the protein target is involved in needs to be followed by a careful study on how the drug changes the pathway and whether it is safe in terms of unintended side effects.

RNAi allows these proteins to be dealt with at the source (cell manufacturing of protein).

This promises the following benefits:

- extreme specificity without side effects (turn off the protein production "tap" without dealing with unintentional binding of the pharma agent with other, non threatening, proteins

- dealing with many disease states that are presently "incurable"

- dealing with disease states caused by a number of "vectors" - genetic, viral or bacterialogical

- with DNA directed RNAi theraputics - the body manufactures its own "immunity" to the disease state without modification of the geonome of the organism

Looking long term - I think there is a high degree of probability that:

- RNAi will not be used just to silence genes. Speculating - I think the mechanism will be found to be important in the turning "on" genes (growth, reproduction, etc) as well as "off". "Phasing" of gene extression, I speculate, will also be another area where RNAi will be discovered to have a role.

- RNAi will have application in management of current incurable disease states. However, it will also likely make it to "cosmetic" and "life extension" applications. (I have some specific ideas here).

- I speculate that the commercial consequences of the RNAi discovery (across plants and animals) will have ultimately have an effect on human society equal to the industrial revolution (based on the 18th century application of automation and management techniques to a new economic principle - division of labour).

Imagine - owning a piece of a patent on the fundamental processes of life.

In terms of investment - who will dominate, commercially?

In answer - I am not quite sure. However, BLT.ASX has some very significant assets ...

The financial state, of course, is the most significant impediment.

[Capitalist]

As far as Robert Thomas' role in all of this goes [...] The 05 annual states that he is or was the Chairman of Citigroup Global Corporate and Investment Bank Australia and New Zealand with over thirty years in the securities industry.

I repeat this person is unknown to Citigroup NA. Complete nonsense.Even if it were true, C as a corporate has no interest in GEN or BLT and never has had. Those saying it has are being totally intellectually dishonest. The legal process will be used to prove this if need be.

The only drunk people are those who have been fooled into investing in this company by the *real* crooks on this forum, whom I am happy to uncloak.

[Enumerate]

Bugger, you retire, get a nice easy chair as a retirement present and they have completely forgotton about you in two years ....

We "drunk" biotech fools remember you Rob!!


Sydney, 25 August, 2004 - After 18 years with Citigroup and its predecessor businesses,
Rob Thomas has announced his intention to retire as Chairman of Citigroup Corporate and
Investment Banking Group Australia/NZ by September 30, 2004.
Citigroup’s Global Corporate and Investment Banking Group (Australia/NZ) Chief Executive
Officer, Stephen Roberts, said: “Rob’s distinguished career in capital markets and investment
banking spans many decades and includes a pivotal role in the development of Citigroup in
Australia/NZ. He now believes it is time for a change of focus and greater work flexibility."
Mr Thomas has recently been appointed vice chairman of Benitec, a world-renowned gene
silencing group, and will also continue to work with Citigroup as a consultant and to represent
the organisation in a number of its community initiatives including VisAsia and the Australian
Indigenous Leadership Program.
Mr Thomas’ long and highly respected career includes many years with Potter Partners and
an instrumental role in the establishment of County NatWest Securities - a group that in the
late 1980s grew to become one of Australia’s dominant stockbrokers.
Following Salomon Smith Barney’s acquisition of the local County Natwest franchise in 1999,
Mr Thomas was appointed managing director of Equities, and later, chief executive Salomon
Smith Barney Australia/NZ. Mr Thomas was pivotal in the establishment of Smith Barney
Citigroup, now Australia's leading full-service retail broker.
At the time of the re-branding to Citigroup and the formation of the Citigroup Corporate and
Investment Banking Group (GCIB) in 2003 Mr Thomas was appointed chairman of the GCIB
Australia/NZ.
“Rob has seen great change in this company and the industry over his distinguished career.
On behalf of his many friends and colleagues within the firm, I wish to sincerely thank him for
his outstanding contribution and commitment,” Mr Roberts said.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Capitalist
I repeat this person is unknown to Citigroup NA. Complete nonsense.


It has been proven he was chairman of Citigroup in 2004.


quote:]Originally posted by Capitalist
Even if it were true, C as a corporate has no interest in GEN or BLT and never has had.


We are talking about BLT.ASX - that has been clear since the first post.

And yes, Citigroup has had a significant interest in BLT.ASX


quote:]Originally posted by Capitalist
Those saying it has are being totally intellectually dishonest.


How many types of dishonestly does Citigroup recognise? If we are being "intellectually dishonest" for stating facts - does this mean we are "emotionally dishonest" for making an appeal for justice. Perhaps we could be "comedically dishonest" for telling funny jokes or "truthfully dishonest" for telling lies?

Anyway, endogenous gene expression in eukaryotes is easier to cope with than citi-speak.


quote:]Originally posted by Capitalist
The legal process will be used to prove this if need be.


Ahhh, a threat!

However, I will interpret this as an invitation to a little epistemolgical musing ...

From the Wikipedia:

In Plato's dialogue the Theaetetus (Theætetus), Socrates considers a number of definitions of knowledge. One of the prominent candidates is justified true belief. We know that for something to count as knowledge it must be true and be believed to be true. Socrates argues that this is insufficient; in addition one must have a reason or justification for that belief.

One implication of this definition is that one cannot be said to "know" something just because one believes something that subsequently turns out to be true.

Knowledge, therefore, is distinguished from true belief by its justification, and much of epistemology is concerned with how true beliefs might be properly justified. This is sometimes referred to as the theory of justification.

So, Capitalist - we return to the fundamental point:

WHERE IS YOUR JUSTIFICATION?


quote:]Originally posted by Capitalist
The only drunk people are those who have been fooled into investing in this company by the *real* crooks on this forum, whom I am happy to uncloak.


Ahhh, the topic now turns to uncloaking! I begin to sense the full nature of what is going on here. This is a Capitalist crusade against evil doers. Any means are justified to expose the sinister forces at work corrupting the virtuous in their persuit of above average return on investment.

Might I suggest the following clinical cause:

The Fregoli delusion or Fregoli syndrome is a rare disorder in which a person holds a delusional belief that different people are in fact a single person who changes appearance or is in disguise. The syndrome may be related to a brain lesion and is often of a paranoid nature with the delusional person believing that they are being persecuted by the person whom they believe to be following them.

It was first reported in a paper by P. Courbon and G. Fail in 1927 (Syndrome d’illusion de Frégoli et schizoph

[duncan macgregor]

I think that some of you people need to pay more attention to your investing ability, and less to slandering each other. I can see a couple of the more childish posters being shown the red card. I think a couple of you have already got turfed out in the past, only to renew your false passport and crawl back. macdunk

[barney]

There must be an enumerate number of ways that a capitalist can get their jollies.[^]

[TerryA]

Without having a barney ?

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
The salix is lignin reduced and I am sure its patent protected yielding an energy input output ratio of 1:16.

To my knowledge this is far more than most if not all other types of biofuel.


Quite correct.

Take a look at the following:

http://www.tallcornethanol.com/

These type of ethanol plants are springing up all over the US corn belt. Their energy efficiency is less than 1:2!!

1:16 is amazing.

Part of this, I presume, is the use of geothermal energy in "cooking" the Salix.

[Enumerate]

I have a problem with this posting:


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

I think that some of you people need to pay more attention to your investing ability, and less to slandering each other. I can see a couple of the more childish posters being shown the red card. I think a couple of you have already got turfed out in the past, only to renew your false passport and crawl back. macdunk


You do not acknowledge that a poster to this thread has:

1) Accused people of a serious lack of integrity bordering on criminal behaviour (ramping)

2) Threatened vague legal action over allegations of insider trading at Citigroup. The big problem here is that no evidence of these allegations is not evident in the thread.

3) Disputed facts that have been demonstrated to be true, multiple times

4) Dismissed discussions of RNAi's application to Australasian biotech in an unsubstantiated and insulting way.

5) Accused posters of multiple identities. (Not to mention the full spectrum of paranoid delusion in terms of "stalking", etc.)

Instead you take a "holier than thou" stance and offer a few unfounded, insulting aspersions on people's character, yourself.

I think if people post to sharetrader they need to have a very "thick skin". Everyone is entitled to an opinion and you need to not be easily offended by this "variety". However, the integrity of the poster is a very serious issue. This is an issue, MacDunk, that you fail to acknowledge and, in fact, something you indulge in yourself with unfounded "observations" like:


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor
a couple of you have already got turfed out in the past, only to renew your false passport and crawl back

[Enumerate]

The key advantages of the salix/ethanol proposal are:

- 1:16 energy efficiency is amazing. With available biomass we could, in effect, "amplify" Maui natural gas reserves by a factor of 16!

- if you can brew beer - you can turn salix into ethanol. NZ invented the continuous brewing process - we are absolute experts in the basic ethanol production technology.

- Government intervention is back in fashion. If you have no worries about wiping a couple of billion off Telecom I would have thought mandating locally produced ethanol in fuel would have been a complete no brainer. I am sure Cullen would welcome the current account impact on going to a full 85% locally produced ethanol content for transport fuels.

If this gets off the ground I think Jim Watson not only justifies his Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit - he deserves a full Sainthood!! Saint Jim - patron saint of ethanol (or basketweaving).

[Enumerate]

Just found the following link on the City of Hope web site:

http://www.cityofhope.org/Media/ReleasesMedSci/RossiHIVGeneTherapy051706MS.htm

This reminds me of the old expression - "The three most important things about RNAi technology are - delivery, delivery, delivery"

In this case - lentivirus has been used to deploy the Benitec (BLT.ASX) ddRNA, in stem cells, to produce siRNA to attack the HIV/AIDS virus during its reproduction cycle.

This technique has been employed in five patients with AIDS and AIDS lymphoma (a type of cancer due to viral load taking out the immune system).

This looks very positive, in other reports:

- the 5 test subjects have survived well beyond their expected life expectancy.

- safety studies seem to indicate a green light for the therapy

With the programme entering phase 1 clinical trial ... we have to hold our breath.

Given that the disease target is full AIDS/AIDS lymphoma - a successful outcome of the phase 1 could possibly see the programme jump directly to phase 3 trials. (After all, we are dealing with a presently incurable, terminal disease - ethical issues of a potential cure, proven safe, may force the FDA's hand).

The key things to note are:

i) the specifity of the RNAi theraputic. The ddRNA technique generates siRNA's directly targeting HIV/AIDS viral reproduction. This is not (like HAART) another macro molecule cocktail targetting the retrovirus which is largely defeated by the high mutation rate of the virus. One of the siRNA's produced targets a highly preserved section of the virus genome.

ii) the safety of the technique is likely to be many orders of magnitude greater than standard retroviral techniques. Again, this is because you are not introducing macromolecules targeting general cell biological mechanisms. You are simply advising the cell to use its natural RNA supression mechanisms to target a highly specific sequence of base pairs highly preserved by the virus.

Given that the HIV life cycle can be quite short (1.5 days) - I would expect early results from the phase 1 trial. As a guess, people with AIDS lymphoma should see some improvement in their condition on the order of time it takes for the stem cells to mature into various blood cells (I am investigating this - as yet, don't have an answwer).

I am amazed at the progress of this theraputic. It is like someone building a 747 aircraft ten years after Richard Pearce demonstrated powered flight.

There is a very good survey of the general biology at:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/bv.fcgi?call=bv.View..ShowTOC&rid=mcb.TOC&depth=10

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
And whether or not one delivery mechanism is universal or does each type of cell require a custom design thereby yielding competitive advantage to the patent holders?


Jolly, there is no universal delivery mechanism. One thing that got me very excited about the Benitec theraputic was the fact they had a a HCV (Hep C) theraputic modality. Liver cells are probably the most profoundly difficult cells to penetrate. Also, to cure HCV you have to basically deliver to all cells in the liver. The fact that they cracked this one leads me to believe they have (had) some very clever people working on delivery.

The second dimension is the DNA directed RNA technology/patents. Rather than deliver siRNA's, the technique of modifying cell DNA to produce the siRNA's is an extreme advantage.

"Big Pharma" is currently waiting in the sidelines and has not endorsed RNAi technologies. In part, there is skepticism from failure with previous attempts at selective gene control. The antisense theraputics (which also bind to messenger RNA) were large scale failures.

GEN.NZX was active in this gene control field (I believe). The failure of their two eczema approaches was typcial of the failure of the antisense theraputics.

Not everyone is a RNAi convert - there is sigificant scepticism with people who's opinion should be listened carefully to. Some suggest that RNAi will only be useful in identifying protein targets for conventional therapys.

I, on the other hand, remain exuberant about the technology. Once you solve the delivery difficulties - the specificity of the technology is breathtaking. Experiments demonstrate a 1000 fold increase in "power" over antisense theraputics. Also, the safety of the approach has been demonstrated.

I think the most likely path forward for Benitec (BLT.ASX) is:

- demonstrate significant promise in the HIV/AIDS phase 1 at the City of Hope.

- I would not expect the final "cure" to be demonstrated in the phase 1 - but significant merit to convince "Big Pharma" that this will be the next generation

- The bidding will begin - BLT.ASX will be courted by "Big Pharma" partners all wanting to position for development of the next generation theraputics.

- BLT.ASX will recapitalise (in terms of fees and royalties) and will be back in business persuing the HIV/AIDS and HCV theraputics.

- royalty revenue from their patent estate should be significant as others fund approaches to other disease targets using Benitec technologies

I believe the best analogy is the Internet in the late 90's. There were many skeptics - but when the investment boom began, things really took off. I also think there will be a stampede to "own" RNAi. There could be over investment and a speculative boom. With luck, this is ahead of us. It all hinges on the demonstration of the basic merit of the approach.

In biotech, failure is 10:1 (at least) over success. It pays to do very careful, thorough research to improve your odds of backing the "winner".

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
After reading the link a bit closer and checking the BLT press releases I couldn't actually see a date or even an approximate for the start of the trials. And when they do start it will only be on five patients. Not a big trial.


A phase 1 trial will need significantly more patients than 5. There will be a control group and (potentially) a number of streams to the theraputic. The 5 patients they have referred to in press releases are people, I believe, with AIDS lymphoma. (This cancer is the last stage of terminal AIDS, unfortunately, for many patients). Trialling the theraputic (pre-phase 1) probably has ethics approval at "City of Hope" given the terminal nature of the disease state and the research nature of the institution.

They resumed manufacturing last month. They are probably recruiting trial patients and designing the study. I would think they need of the order of 100's to do a proper phase 1 (level of statistical significance). Rossi and City of Hope are probably amongst the best in the world in terms of access to trial volunteers and theraputic resource. The theraputic modality has largely been worked out - the delay was due to refining manufacture of the theraputic delivery.

I remain opimistic for early results in early September, as a guess.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
I don't know a lot about the medical but certainly BLT is right up there and so must GEN be if they get those patents issued.


I am no IP lawyer. Decided to lookup patents recorded by IP Australia for the following firms.

Benitec

2001240375 Genetic silencing 16Mar01
2004243347 Double-stranded nucleic acid 3Jun04
2002325649 Methods for quantifying nuclear run-on transcriptional assays 30Aug02
2003258367 Method for gene silencing in transgenic animals 9Sep03
2001100608 Control of gene expression 30Nov01
2005209648 Control of gene expression 9Sep05
2005211538 Control of Gene Expression 15Sep05

Neucleonics

2004214954 Methods and constructs for evaluation of RNAi targets and effector molecules 24Feb04
2002348372 Transfection kinetics and structural promoters 22Oct02
2003266014 Methods for delivery of nucleic acids 6May03
2003274906 Double stranded rna structures and constructs, and methods for generating and using the same 31Jul03
2003284323 Double-stranded RNA structures and constructs, and methods for generating and using the same 20Oct03
2004263832 Conserved HBV and HCV sequences useful for gene silencing 10Jun04

Genesis

2004252479 Transcription factors 7Jun04
2004252481 Compositions and methods for regulating polysaccharides of a plant cell 7Jun04
2003278624 Polynucleotides and polypeptides derived from Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001 3Oct03
2003288826 Polynucleotides and polypeptides isolated from lactobacillus rhamnosus hn001 materials incorporating them and methods for using them 15Dec03
2001260847 Compositions isolated from skin cells and methods for their use 24May01
2002216500 Methods for modulating apoptotic cell death 28Nov01
2002324386 Compounds and methods for the modulation of immune responses 26Jul02
2002332373 Polynucleotides isolated from skin cells and methods for their use 18Nov02
2002353674 Functional assay for genes involved in xylogenesis 8Nov02
2003228180 Modulators and inhibitors of fibroblast growth factor receptor 5_polypeptides and gene expression thereof 27May03
2002334466 Compositions isolated from bovine mammary gland and methods for their use 12Sep02
2001267952 Nucleic acid sequences and methods for the modification of plant gene expression 20Jun01
2003203517 Materials and methods for the modification of plant lignin content 8Apr03
2003222535 Compositions and methods for the modification of gene expression_using the superubiquitin promoter from pinus radiata 30Apr03
2004201600 Materials and methods for the modification of plant lignin content 16Apr04
2004202771 Materials and methods for the modification of plant cell wall polysaccharides 23Jun04
2005209642 Compositions affecting programmed cell death and their use in the modification of forestry plant development 9Sep05
2001284558 Lactobacillus rhamnosus polynucleotides, polypeptides and methods for using them 8Aug01
2002216499 Lactobacillus rhamnosus polynucleotides, polypeptides and methods for using them 28Nov01
2002360228 Compositions from the grasses lolium perenne and festuca arundinacea 7Nov02
2003228165 Compositions isolated from forage grasses and methods for their use 6May03
2003265016 Polypeptides involved in the regulation of flowering in forage grasses 4Sep03
2003265018 Antifreeze proteins isolated from forage grasses and methods for their use 9Sep03

Makes interesting reading.

The Benitec RNAi patents seem to be quite fundamental. Neucleonics have some RNAi patents but of less precidence (2004 compared with 2001 for Benitec). There seems to be very little RNAi patents recorded by Genesis.

Also, the Benitec patents have survived a Neucleonics "prior art" attack.

[Phaedrus]

Reading this thread makes me distinctly uneasy. It reminds me of PTD.

I'm sure that Jolly and Enumerate know what a folie a deux is. For those that don't, it is where 2 people in broad agreement reinforce each others opinion to the point that they create their own reality, walled off from outside influence. They totally convince each other they are right. This is a very human failing, and we should all be aware of such a possibility. This thread is not the only example - take a look back to when Snoopy and MvT were keeping a TEL thread going between them, totally convincing each other of the sheer rightness of their heavy buying activity - as the shareprice continued to fall.

So, how far out of touch with reality are Jolly and Enumerate? Maybe not quite as far as you think. Take a look at the attached chart. GEN has been in a "perfect storm", a beautiful linear downtrend that has gone on and on for years. It is still in a downtrend, but there are unmistakable signs that this downtrend has weakened.
(1) Price action recently broke above the longterm trendline for the first time in 5 years. This breakout proved unsustainable and prices have now dropped below that point.
(2) For the first time ever, prices recently broke above the usual longterm (200 day) exponential moving average. This breakout proved unsustainable and prices have now dropped below that point.
(3) A Stochastic oscillator looks at where the Closing price lies in relation to the days high and low. It can often give advance warning of future price strength or weakness. GEN recently broke above the crucial 50% Stochastic level. This breakout proved unsustainable and prices have now dropped below that point.

[u]Something is happening here</u>. Now, before you get overly excited, all of these signals have been triggered by GEN more or less tracking sideways in a trading range. A trading range is usually a continuation pattern, in that they more commonly break to the downside, continuing the downtrend that preceded them. The end of a downtrend does not necessarily mean the beginning of an uptrend, either. Stocks can (and do) track sideways for years on occasion.

It is of course not beyond the realms of possibility that Jolly and Enumerate have recognised value where no-one else has. Technically, to make J&E "right" there would need to be an uptrend. That's a higher high after a higher Low. To make J&E "wrong", you would need a continuation of the existing downtrend. That's a lower low after a lower high.

Until either of these things happens, GEN is in a trading range and the jury is still out.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/GEN711001.gif

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
Reading this thread makes me distinctly uneasy. It reminds me of PTD.

I'm sure that Jolly and Enumerate know what a folie a deux is. For those that don't, it is where 2 people in broad agreement reinforce each others opinion to the point that they create their own reality, walled off from outside influence. They totally convince each other they are right. This is a very human failing, and we should all be aware of such a possibility.


Phaedrus, you are quite right to point out the danger.

The only point in posting is to have a robust discussion with all the "angles" exposed. Your TA viewpoint is a welcome addition; an entirely fresh perspective. The fact that the prognosis is "neutral" to "negative" is a point worth contemplating on.

[duncan macgregor]

JOLLY, Dont get me wrong, it is all very interesting, but has nothing to do with making money on the share market. It is like a company drilling for oil or prospecting for minerals. The time to buy is when it produces the good news. You might miss the bottom price, and catch it a quarter way up if you are quick, which certainly beats averaging down losing your stake. If they come up with the goods the first thing to happen is a spike in the sp before it is announced.
Insider trading is alive and well use it to your advantage. The poor suckers that have been riding this share down might end up with nothing. I would lay odds that if ever i buy into this company i will make a much higher return on my money than you will. Keep an eye on announcements if you want to get in first, or watch for a unexplained rise in the sp, but dont buy the tucker to feed the dogs.
macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Thanks McDunk. I have some advice for you. Do your research! Then make your own conclusions!

I'm afraid you have only done one of that.:)

I have no need to do research the market will do it for me. The market followed by the company announcement is the only worthwhile research required with prospecting companies. They are nothing until they find it, just like drilling for oil. It costs a lot to do it why should i pay for it when i can jump in quick at the end.
All very noble etc etc but thats not why i am here. macdunk

[Enumerate]

I think MacDunk is expressing a fair view - from an "efficient market" perspective. The trading strategy is spot on. Followers of MacDunk posts will spot core elements of his system.

I think the Jolly view is that the market is not always "efficient". It is "nearly always" efficient (unless you are talking TTP.NZX or other pariah stocks - in which it is "never efficient"). Given this view - there is an opportunity for smart research to make a significant difference to the overall return.

Personally, I tend to the Jolly view of the world. (To the extent I have been accused of being a Jolly alter ego ... lol). I am buying BLT.ASX because of FA reasons and am hoping for a very very long relationship with the stock ...

This might be considered a vain hope - in light of the financial position. However, the patent estate and progress with the theraputic trial(s) give the stock significant value pending recapitalisation.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
You reckon that will be sooner or later E?


Well ... found out that blood cell life cycle is 15 days (from stem cell to programmed cell death). HIV/AIDS virus life cycle is 1.5 days.

Rossi et al, when they start the clinical trial, need to extract the stem cells. This is followed by chemotherapy. The modified stem cells are restored. They should see T-cell counts rise in the lymphoma patients within 15 days of this stage of treatment.

As you point out - if you have a very promising HIV/AIDS theraputic, you will have the focused, undivided attention of some very large Pharma companies ...

The value is not only in the theraputic but also full justifcation for significant investment in expressed RNAi technologies.

Both core elements of BLT.ASX will, if this happens, undergo a significant revaluation.

I think your points about interim reporting put another dimension on all of this. The factor that gives me some hope that we may be surprised in late August/ early September is that CoH has to follow ethical guidelines. If they have the "cure" - it would be unethical to let the control group die to prove a statistical point for the phase 1.

Success in mouse models etc needs to be treated cautiously as an indication in human trial. A point I haven't made before, and the fundamental reason that, in my gut, I think this technology will be very very big is that: "RNAi is a "natural" process in cells". Nature has given us an automatic targetting system strapped to a double barrelled shot gun - you program in the target (siRNA), nature points, shoots, reloads - the virus RNA/DNA is gone. RNAi is about "guiding" the cell response - not forcing a result (like "fixing" a complex clock by smacking it with a sledgehammer - sometimes that works, mostly it doesn't).

[Enumerate]

Depending on the trial design - they will have patients who get the Benitec modified stem cells and some who get unmodified stem cells. This second group is the "control". If their survival rate is equal or better (statistically speaking) than the treatment group - the phase 1 trial is a failure.

If however, there are clinical indications that the treatment group is doing significantly better than the control group - there is an ethical issue with letting the control group (potentially) die.

I don't know how complex the trial design will be. They might have a number of treatment approaches to test. My guess would be they will keep it simple.

[Enumerate]

Just found the following information on FDA clinical trial guidelines. This raises the issue that what I have been assuming will be happening at CoH is more like a phase 2 trial than a phase 1.

Key points of difference are:

- smaller numbers of subjects - 20 to 80
- probable focus of the trial as an investigational study of the disease process. The best we can probably hope for is a demonstration that the Benitec theraputic halts HIV reproduction in treated stem cells.

We need to get some idea of the phase 1 trial design to see what scope there is to proceed rapidly to phase 2.

My understanding is that the 5 AIDS lymphoma patients treated with the theraputic have allowed preliminary investigation into toxicity and protocol. I would hope, based on this, that the phase 1 trial design is slightly more ambitious and could potentially lead to skipping the phase 2 and going to phase 3.

Only review of the details will allow potential scenarios to be mapped.

Here is the background:

PHASE 1 DRUG TRIAL: Phase 1 trials include the initial introduction of an investigational new drug into humans. These studies are typically conducted with healthy volunteers; sometimes, where the drug is intended for use in patients with a particular disease, however, such patients may participate as subjects. Phase 1 trials are designed to determine the metabolic and pharmacologic actions of the drug in humans, the side effects associated with increasing doses (to establish a safe dose range), and, if possible, to gain early evidence of effectiveness; they are typically closely monitored. The ultimate goal of Phase 1 trials is to obtain sufficient information about the drug's pharmacokinetics and pharmacological effects to permit the design of well-controlled, sufficiently valid Phase 2 studies. Other examples of Phase 1 studies include studies of drug metabolism, structure-activity relationships, and mechanisms of actions in humans, as well as studies in which investigational drugs are used as research tools to explore biological phenomena or disease processes. The total number of subjects involved in Phase 1 investigations is generally in the range of 20-80.

PHASE 2 DRUG TRIAL: Phase 2 trials include controlled clinical studies conducted to evaluate the drugs effectiveness for a particular indication in patients with the disease or condition under study, and to determine the common short-term side effects and risks associated with the drug. These studies are typically well-controlled, closely monitored, and conducted with a relatively small number of patients, usually involving no more than several hundred subjects.

PHASE 3 DRUG TRIAL: Phase 3 trials involve the administration of a new drug to a larger number of patients in different clinical settings to determine its safety, efficacy, and appropriate dosage. They are performed after preliminary evidence of effectiveness has been obtained, and are intended to gather necessary additional information about effectiveness and safety for evaluating the overall benefit-risk relationship of the drug, and to provide an adequate basis for physician labeling. In Phase 3 studies, the drug is used the way it would be administered when marketed. When these studies are completed and the sponsor believes that the drug is safe and effective under specific conditions, the sponsor applies to the FDA for approval to market the drug. Phase 3 trials usually involve several hundred to several thousand patient-subjects.

PHASE 4 DRUG TRIAL: Concurrent with marketing approval, FDA may seek agreement from the sponsor to conduct certain postmarketing (Phase 4) studies to delineate additional information about the drug’s risks, benefits, and optimal use. These studies could include, but would not be limited to, studying different doses or schedules of administration than were used in Phase 2 studies, use of the drug in other patient populations or other stages of the disease, or use of the drug over a longer period of time. [21 CFR 312.85]

[Enumerate]

Phaedrus has suggested a folie a deux governing posts on the GEN.NZX thread. Clinically this is a shared paranoid or delusional state often seen as a symptom of psychosis. (I note the absence of a MacDunk post rushing to our defence).

While we are on the topic of paranoid psychosis I would suggest a more refined diagnosis should be folie a trois (accounting for Donner's contriubtion) - but then again folie a deux may be most appropriate with a little split personality as a side issue :-o

Thinking it through, however, i'd suggest folie imposee as the most complete diagnosis with Jolly as primary and my role as secondary.

After all - Jolly has come up with the key delusions (insights) on this thread. My role has been as researcher, eventually being enrolled into the delusional state.

I had occasion to revisit some Donner posts. (Sadly missed - but fortunately Jolly has arrived to fill his shoes). There are many threads of information he revealed that can fuel a wonderfully rich paranoid or delusional episode.

For example:

- he points to the "tribal" nature of biotech. Key "shaman" often appear in linked roles throughout the global industry.

Aki von Roy (GEN.NZX chairman), for example, is an Investment Director with Inventages Venture Capital Investment Inc which manages the BioPacificVentures fund which supports key links to the NZ Government AgResearch research arm. Joachim has impeccible links to central European "big pharma".

Dr Mike Dalling (BLT.ASX executive director), apart from a passion for blue roses, seems to be very much a CSIRO trouble shooter. His past experience at Xceed Biotechnology (commercialising/defending CSIRO biotech IP interests) might just be a template for what he is attempting to achieve at Benitec.

- he also points to the effective "food chain" within global biotech.

Science, Management, Capital and Relationships are four keys to Biotech success. Whover has the best science can team up with those with management skills and sector relationships. At the top of the food chain are the "big pharma" and "investment funds".

The "old" GEN.NZX had the first (science), in spades. The "new" GEN.NZX seems to be focused on working on all four. As fuel for the delusional state - this has got to be good news.

BLT.ASX has had three of the four working well. It is the "capital" element that is now the current problem and has seen a degradation of the Management element, as well. This must be a concern to the CSIRO - I wonder if a solution is in the "PIPE"line? I wonder what kind of backstop is actually in place for BLT.ASX? Maybe this is just evidence of paranoid psychosis.

The good thing about the GEN.NZX thread is that the full spectrum of mental health disorders gets to be aired! A day out for the inpatients!!

[Enumerate]

Being on the GEN.NZX thread with Jolly is like being in a dark cave scattered with gems. Jolly has the flashlight and often illuminates some sparkling examples.

Also, MacDunk is in the same cave, with a large stick with a rusty nail in it. If you go ooooh! or ahhhhh! He whacks you with it ... (ouch!)

(PAX! - I hope people have a sense of humour)

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
...but you just never know do you? Unless you do.


I have no information or insight apart from the obvious - they need recapitalisation. (Hopefully on terms that recognise the value the the shareholders have created with their underwriting the research process). The CSIRO and Vic Govt links are interesting, though.


quote:Originally posted by Jolly
Been keeping an eye on PGL since Ognid made mention of it. Got very popular late on Friday but volumes still light. Been in a sharp STT down trend but looks like it may have bottomed.

Market cap is a $115m AU. Interested in a $7m NZD company? Will wait and see I guess.


PGL is not a good fit for either GEN.NXX or BLT.ASX. I see no scope for M&A activities, here.

I reckon the consolidators, in the biotech industry, will be big pharma or funds. The research companies are the "beauty queens" looking for the attention of those with funds and connections. I can see a siRNA company being interested in BLT.ASX - but funds are expensive for them in the development phase - they would be better of licensing and sticking to their knitting.

[Enumerate]

I have been backgrounding Alnylam - who have Parkinsons as a theraputic target:

http://www.alnylam.com/therapeutic-programs/programs.asp

I have been scanning molecular cell biology papers in persuit of an understanding of potentially how effective the Alnylam theraputic could be.

I found an interesting correlation of papers:

http://www.jneurosci.org/cgi/content/full/21/20/8053

From the abstract:

1) "Brain lesions containing filamentous and aggregated -synuclein are hallmarks of neurodegenerative synucleinopathies. Oxidative stress has been implicated in the formation of these lesions."

2) "Our data indicate that nitrative and oxidative insult may initiate pathogenesis of -synuclein aggregates."

On the face of it, the Alnylam siRNA theraputic targets alpha-synuclein production with a view to reducing the rate at which lesion causing protein aggregates form.

From a second paper:

http://www.ucihealth.com/News/Releases/antioxidants09-19-01.htm

3) "The team found that nitric oxide, which helps maintain normal blood pressure but also acts as an important signaler of messages between and within cells, interacts with reactive oxygen species (often known as free radicals) to cause brain cell damage during kidney failure. This interaction between nitric oxide and free radicals produces more cell-damaging molecules. These molecules can lead to brain dysfunctions by damaging cells there.

By treating the rats with kidney failure with an antioxidant called des-methyl-tirilizad, the researchers found much lower levels of the molecules that lead to oxidative stress and brain damage."

Potential interesting conclusion:

From 1) and 2) - it seems as if oxidative and nitritive activity is indicated in the formation of the -synuclein aggregations which in turn lead to brain lesion.

From 3), it would seem that des-methyl-tirilizad could be useful in the slowing of the formation of filamentous and aggregated -synuclein. This is because of its anti-oxidative properties!

Further, clinical protocols seem to exist for the administration of tirilizad mesylate to cardiology patients for its lyposomal anti-oxidative properties. It may also be part of established renal care protocols. So it may be proved safe to administer.

I'd suggest this may be worthy of further research.

However, considering the Alnylam theraputic:

- it would seem that shutting down synuclein production, while reducing the rate of formation of aggregates, does not address the fundamental pathogenesis.

- delivery of the siRNA's is probably the key obstacle in producing a theraputic. Alnylam are keeping this close to their chest.

I'd suggest that the Alnylam research would be very useful in Parkinsons research and may form a treatment stage in the ultimate therapy - but I'd don't see the "king hit" in the same way BLT.ASX is going after HIV/AIDS.

However, in business terms, Alnylam has impeccable links to "big pharma". They are funded to RNAi reseach including a bizarre project targeting the bird flu pandemic! This is an example of what is possible with the right relationships.

[Enumerate]

Just to summarise what I am saying, without jargon:

- des-methyl-tirilizad, used to treat brain damage in kidney failure cases, may be useful in slowing (or halting) the progress of Parkinsons disease. (Maybe I should start a biotech!)

- the Alnylam Parkinsons theraputic seems to me to be a less promising approach compared with the BLT.NZX HIV/AIDS modality. Further, there are unanswered questions about deliver of the Alnylam siRNA.

- Alnylam are doing things correctly in commercial terms. They have excellent big pharma relationships and seem to be attracting significant funding for research.

[Enumerate]

Jolly, I would characterise Alnylam as a very good siRNA company (programming the targetting system).

However, the way I see it (and I stress, I am no IP lawyer), BLT.ASX has more fundamental RNAi patents (I mean the basic discovery of RNAi processes is mammals with refinements to their ddRNA process).

In terms of theraputic development, their DNA directed RNAi patent is also quite fundamental and the technique is very commonly quoted in theraputic developemnt (Here, the Neucleonics patents seem to overlap and I lack the background to see who is winning here - Benitec has precidence for any overlaping areas, it seems).

BLT.ASX has patents covering the tools of RNAi theraputic development (Method for gene silencing in transgenic animals).

BLT.ASX also seems to have licenses controlling delivery (the liver cell mechanism is a case in point).

However, the killer over Alnylam, is that their theraputic programs seem to be more straight forward (and more ambitious) playing directly to the strengths of their RNAi technologies. (In my view BLT.ASX researchers have a deeper intuition and are placing "bets" where the payoff could be amazing).

Alnylam has significantly more money. Thanks for your background, above.

It will be interesting to see where Sara Cunningham turns up. I think what she achieved with BLT.ASX shareholder funds is quite remarkable. No one does it better, or as quickly, based on the projects I have reviewed.

The other angle may be that these guys put rubbish on their sites describing their development programs. However, they need to build clinical "buy in" for their potential theraputic - they need to be reasonably clear in what they are attempting.

The final sobering thought is that BLT.ASX is now dead in the water - their fate is in the hands of Rossi et al at CoH and Mike Dalling.

Still haven't unearthed anything that leads me to believe that BLT.ASX is not the single best RNAi "play" on any market. Believe me, I am looking.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger at 17/06/2006 : 12:33:02 PM [Page 37]

Enumerate: Well done on taking the plunge, I wish you the best on this.

MacDunk: It looks like we can leave this thread alone now, Enumerate is taking over the job of stopping Jolly from talking to himself.

Perhaps we could all meet up for donner kebabs and crispy fried tiger prawns at the Jolly Dingo sometime.

If I could have read then what I have read since then I would not have posted what I did post then.
This thread is seriously wierd.

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
If I could have read then what I have read since then I would not have posted what I did post then.
This thread is seriously wierd.


Yes, it true. You see, you need to declare some kind of mental impairment before you are allowed to post.

Fregoli's Syndrome is covered - we are working for a cure based on des-methyl-tirilizad.

We are a bit heavy on the paranoid psychosis front, with an outbreak of folie imposee. (Affectionatly known as "Jolly's Folie", on the thread).

However, to balance our ICD-10 codes - we need a bit more schizophrenia. Nearest we have is someone who thinks they are Jesus Christ.

How about the following diagnositic symptoms. Have you experienced any:
- delusions
- hallucinations
- disorganized speech
- dressing inappropriately
- crying frequently
- catatonic behavior
- lack or decline in emotional response
- lack or decline in speech
- lack or decline in motivation

If so, you are the one we have been looking for ...

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger at 17/06/2006 : 12:33:02 PM [Page 37]

Enumerate: Well done on taking the plunge, I wish you the best on this.

MacDunk: It looks like we can leave this thread alone now, Enumerate is taking over the job of stopping Jolly from talking to himself.

Perhaps we could all meet up for donner kebabs and crispy fried tiger prawns at the Jolly Dingo sometime.

If I could have read then what I have read since then I would not have posted what I did post then.
This thread is seriously wierd.


C-mon PAPER TIGER it would be like the mad hatters tea party in alice in wonderland. I will leave it up to someone other than my good self to list the guests. macdunk

[Enumerate]

Am monitoring the CoH clinical trial page to see when the BLT.ASX related therapies will begin.

There is one trial addressing elements of the theraputic:

http://clinicaltrials.coh.org/study_display.aspx?pid=3715337

Looks like this may be the pre-clinical trial. "Accrual date" was 28/6/06 - expect the phase 1 to be announced soon?!?

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly
What do you think of the following E?


Zenyth has a very impressive number of patents. They specialise in antibody/antigen binding - hence they look to create proteins for protein targets.

What constantly surprises me is the amount of money big pharma is prepared to fork out to research partners. If RNAi was subject to this "mainstream" funding - expect $100's of million$ to be tossed around in search of research targets.


quote:
But whats with all the different prefixes? What are the differences?


Key terms are:

siRNA - small interfering (or small inhibitory) RNA - double stranded RNA coding the "target" sequence in the gene to be silenced.

RISC - RNA-induced silencing complex - a type of Argonaute protein (a siRNA-directed endonuclease), catalyzing cleavage of a single phosphodiester bond on the RNA target. Takes the single strand of the siRNA, finds the complementary sequence on the gene target and chops it in half. Hence it is the "destroyer".

DICER - a member of the RNase III family of nucleases that specifically cleave double-stranded RNAs. Dicer processes long dsRNA into siRNA. DICER, through a number of mechanisms, amplifies the siRNA in the cell.

Nature has an excellent animation of all the core RNAi processes:

http://www.nature.com/focus/rnai/animations/index.html

To get the most out of viewing it - a couple of key things you must understand:

- there are 20 essential amino acids
- proteins consist of amino acids linked together in a chain (more correctly, peptides are small chains of amino acids; sequences of peptides form proteins)
- Each strand of DNA is a chain of chemical "building blocks", called nucleotides, of which there are four types: adenine (A) and guanine (G), cytosine (C) and thymine (T). The only possible combos are AT, TA, CG, GC.
- DNA codes for each of the 20 amino acids by taking 3 nucleotides (called a codon) (4 ways of selecting the first, 4 second, 4 third = 4x4x4 = 64 states to code 20 amino acids. So, random sequences of nucleotides would not necesarily translate to a sequence of amino acides - the code can break down!
- The sequence of codons is the sequence of amino acids which becomes the protein sequence.

- RNA and Ribosomes are the way the DNA "message" gets manufactured in the cell.

[Enumerate]

Started a BLT.ASX thread on the Market.ASX group.

[Enumerate]

Jolly, you are right - no interest on the ASX thread.

In my scouting around, found Oxford Biomedica plc. An interesting company with a cancer vaccine in phase III. Lots of oncology type developments in the pipeline. Also, they are appropriately capitalised - looking for more.

Their Lenitvirus delivery technology is very important - patent being defended by Sigma-Aldrich. This might explain the SA involvment with BLT.ASX - they are supplying the delivery vector for the AIDS pre-clinical.

This company actually sparks some interest, from me. However, not the same bang for buck as with BLT.ASX. The search goes on ...

Overall assessment - things seem to be pretty depressed in the biotech game. Lots of people looking for funds. Some with good ideas seem to be going scratching ...

[Raptor]

Jolly, Why do you keep editing and re-editing your posts?

Do you do it just to keep GEN near the top of the list?

Who did you learn this trick from?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Enumerate

Yes, it true. You see, you need to declare some kind of mental impairment before you are allowed to post.

Fregoli's Syndrome is covered - we are working for a cure based on des-methyl-tirilizad.

We are a bit heavy on the paranoid psychosis front, with an outbreak of folie imposee. (Affectionatly known as "Jolly's Folie", on the thread).

However, to balance our ICD-10 codes - we need a bit more schizophrenia. Nearest we have is someone who thinks they are Jesus Christ.

How about the following diagnositic symptoms. Have you experienced any:
- delusions
- hallucinations
- disorganized speech
- dressing inappropriately
- crying frequently
- catatonic behavior
- lack or decline in emotional response
- lack or decline in speech
- lack or decline in motivation

If so, you are the one we have been looking for ...

Would the fact that ICD codes, it was -9 in my days, still gives me nigthmares do?

[Enumerate]

Unfortunately Jolly, this is a gene therapy trial and not an RNAi trial.

Basically, genes to manufacture a ribozyme (which is a type of RNA with enzymatic activity rather than informational activity like siRNA's - sort of like molecular scissors) are inserted into blood stem cells.

Viral genes use the host cell's enyzmes, ribosomes, tRNA's, amino acids, ATP and other resources to make copies of the viral genome and produce viral capsid proteins, within the cell. The HIV virus is a single stranded RNA virus type (there are 4 options - double stranded DNA, single stranded DNA, double stranded RNA or single stranded RNA). So, in the cell HIV viral single stranded RNA will be circulating along with normal cellular RNA.

The following paper (Rossi et al) shows the discovery of ribozymes targeted against two portions of the HIV-1 genome:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=retrieve&db=pubmed&list_uids=7958986&dopt=Abstract

If the blood stem cell can be induced to manufacture these ribozymes - HIV-1 would be significantly impeded in its reproduction in the cell. This is because HIV viral RNA would be "attacked" by the ribozyme scissors thus making it difficult for the cell to replicate the HIV virus.

The therapy provded efficive (over 1000 times more powerful than the control).

However, it is not an RNAi therapy. RNAi uses a different (and much more potent) mechanism to target the HIV RNA.

The big difference between the two therapies is that the ribozyme treatment creates an enzymatic attack on the HIV virus. The Benitec RNAi therapy is much much more powerful - it creates an informational attack (specifically against a defined neucleotide sequence) AND is part of the natural RNAi process and hence is massively more powerful.

An HIV patient can be said to be "cured" of HIV the instant they have blood stem cells modified to produce the RNAi attack against HIV. The HIV virus will be completely wiped out.

The gene therapy technique, while it can control, will possibly never completely cure. It is still possible for the virus to reproduce - at a much more controlled rate.

[Enumerate]

BTW, there a number of positives about the trial:

- it proves the delivery mechanism
- it proves the HIV susceptibility
- it proves elements of theraputic modality safety

The promise of RNAi is a massively more potent technique against the HIV virus than this (proven) very effective enzymatic technique.

Still awaiting the announcement of the RNAi phase 1.

Have been doing patent reviews of BLT.ASX in the US. They have 1 patent formally registered. Having a read and comparing with what others have my conclusion is that this one patent will be very very very valuable. The ddRNA patent has not been granted, yet, as far as I can tell. If this comes through - the patent base for BLT.ASX will cover the human application of RNAi theraputics - full stop.

Some of the siRNA patents and delivery vector patents will be used in theraputic development. BLT.ASX will have the most significant elements of likely future theraputics covered.

If its as big as I think it will become - BLT.ASX will be a multi billion $$ company. (You may think I am exagerating - but I sincerely believe this, from what I know).

[Enumerate]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
Would the fact that ICD codes, it was -9 in my days, still gives me nigthmares do?


Good enough - welcome to the club!

There is possibly even an ICD code for ICD code aversion ...

[Enumerate]

Interesting article in PharmaDD:

http://www.pharmadd.com/archives/July%202006/BN%20RNAi%20Keeps%20Science.asp

Note the comments from Rossi and Kay.

[Enumerate]

In terms of the Benitec licensing deal with the CSIRO - the CSIRO maintain all plant and animal rights.

RNAi has very significant application. At the very least, as a discovery mechanism:

http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/standard/ps84,,.html

If you want an indirect Benitec link - note that Mike Dalling, Executive Director of Benitec has been seeking the "holy grail" of rose breeding - the blue rose:

http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/file/pf1v,,.html

[Enumerate]

Two new interesting correlations of BLT.ASX information!

Just found the following company presentation:

http://www.benitec.com/PRDownloads/BenitecCorporatePresentationOct2005.pdf

There is a project timeline for the HIV/AIDS program near the end of the document. Bottom line is GMP manufacture of the Lentivirus was planned to be about 4 months. IND filing was to occur shortly after this stage was completed. Since GMP manufacture resumed on 22 June - this could mean that IND filing could be as late as November.

In this document a reference is made to a new BLT.ASX strategic partner. I believe this reference could be to Bristol-Myers Squibb. (Quote: "Benitec establishes a strategic partnership with a $4.5B
NASDAQ company" - BMS is a $4.5B NASDAQ company with SA connections and RNAi interest).

[OOPS! Maybe not - BMS is NYSE listed]

[Enumerate]

Well, the price trajectory has got to be in one direction (down) for both BLT.ASX and GEN.NZX pending some indication of commercialisation prospects.

At these price levels - both of these companies would seem to be "good buy" (as opposed to "good bye" - like most of those with a trader mentality would have us believe).

Of course, assessment could "turn on a dime" - both up or down.

For now, just awaiting confirmation that our assessment is correct (or incorrect).

[Enumerate]

I wouldn't expect any announcements soon. I reckon the next statement will be in early September - prelim on the half year. It will be enlightening, but scary, to understand the cash position at this stage.

Expect downward pressure on the price until the IND announcement. After all, there is a degree of psychological pressure holding a financially weak stock pending a gibberish announcement of an even more gibberish clinical trial leading to commercialisation of a product in 10 years, say.

It takes profound courage (or stupidity) to posit the upside scenarios for BLT.ASX and to commit to holding a postion in the stock. This courage is expressed in stages - dealing with the science, understanding BLT.ASX's positioning, considering development scenarios , arriving at a judgement that the upside outweighs the obvious downsides. No, this stock is not for the average investor.

The trader activity has long since been burned off. They see the down ward slide and "refuse to catch a falling knife".

Only the fundamentalists remain ... and even then, only a special breed of fundamentalist - the ones that have the "true religion":

"RNAi is the way, the truth and light ... No one silences genetic expression except through me".

Time will tell, and "the truth will set you free"!

[Enumerate]

Jolly, I agree - think we will touch 4cents again.

Hope you are right about early BLT.ASX reporting. The existing cash position will be interesting - also some idea of the license revenues to do a back of envelope cash flow.

Also looking forward to the GEN.NZX report. Hopefully some guidance on the salix proposal should be forthcoming.

Have established my positions - nothing for it but to wait.

For both companies I see successful outcomes in the medium to long term. Since the GEN.NZX cash burn continues with not much of a pipeline in the human health division - I see the value in GEN.NZX, where I have always seen it, on the AgriGenesis side. I will be much happier when the salix proposal sprouts some "legs".

[Enumerate]

Well, we were right about hitting 4cents - lol! I was expecting a slow drift down - not a fall through the floor to 3.6cents.

However, clearly they need to bolster the cash position prior to any formal reporting. As you point out, Jolly, they have clearly encountered extra expenses shutting down Mountain View and supporting the HIV/AIDS pre-clinical.

Another 12.5million shares on issue - not too terribly dilutionery.

However, the big risk is will they get the support from enough shareholders to hit the $500k?

The strategy of seeking development partners for advancing theraputics should yeild a good income stream in the longer term. In the short term, Aussie government grants should be available to do fundamental research to maintain the value of the patents. (I think the Aussue gov't is more aware of the value of globally significant IP - the Benitec patents have Aussie gov't "Innovation" status - hence are recognised as strategic.

I would not expect much "big pharma" activity on the share register, in the short term. After HIV/AIDS IND, trial start and prelim results - only then would I expect activity. If there is any "big pharma" interest, at this stage - the price will be significantly higher.

Wouldn't it be great to see the HCV pre-clinical research start up in Aussie!

[Enumerate]

From the 2005 accounts:

1653 - shareholders. If everyone took up their holding - they would raise $8.3million and double the shares on issue. (The 30% max issue provisions would kick in).

Most of the top holders are Australian (lots of PTY's etc).

I reckon they'll get their $500k.

They need to preserve their core relationships (Stanford, CoH, SA, etc). Since all these are in the US - Dr Dalling needs to do some travelling (economy class, please).

They need to talk to "big pharma" and the biotech funds. Setting up JV's to go after big disease targets will be easier once some positive news hits the net about HIV/AIDS at CoH.

The market is not working for them - in terms of raising capital. I'd say they need to consider going private.

I think we will hear some good news, this year. However, I'd say you need to invest with a 3-5 year time horizon to see the realisation (potentially) of value in BLT.ASX.

[Enumerate]

I believe your scenario is feasible. Success in the phase I could quite possibly mandate moving directly to phase III. If this happened - BLT.ASX would have a "bankable" theraputic.

My investment goals are much more long term. Success in the HIV/AIDS phase 1 would quite probably lead to the HCV project entering into phase 1 late 2007. It will be necessary to dilute BLT.ASX interests in both projects to raise capital required to take them through full life cycle.

Hence I don't see the money flowing until about 2009 - 2011.

Although, if the stars align on the current theraputics - the share price could be expected to bounce of current low levels. At current prices - the company is worth about $6million. With HIV/AIDS in phase III and HCV in phase 1 (both with diluted interest - partners funding) I'd see BLT.ASX worth about $50 - $100million. Of course, the upper end of the scale puts the options in the money.

Hence, in April 2008 I could see the shares being worth upwards of 50cents.

This price movement will be driven by "events"

Preconditions:

- HIV/AIDS IND and Phase 1 initiation 2006
- preliminary results by mid 2007
- HCV IND and Phase 1 late 2007
- HIV/AIDS Phase III late 2007

At this stage I would expect "big pharma"/fund interest.

There would be talk, hopefully, of partnership for the third theraputic.

I would expect Aussie government grants and some reactivation of Benitec research, in Australia, to follow the success of the HIV/AIDS phase 1.

I don't really see the HIV/AIDS IND phase 1 sparking much share price movement. Excellent results - mid 2007, however - would cause a spike (back to 20cents, say). After all, HIV/AIDS phase 1 has been promised but delayed. There is credibility to be gained by successfully delivering the promise - but not all the business preconditions are there to warrent exuberent share prices.

Mid 2008 is when the full promise could unfold. If it is positive, at this stage, I expect BLT.ASX will become a "blue chip" biotech over the next 3 years and become a part of everyone's biotech portfolio.

Hence, this is a 3-5 year hold or bail out at a loss if the science turns sour.

[Enumerate]

I certainly hope so.

There are a couple things that lead me to believe a biofuel announcement is overdue:

- Gov't set quotas for Ethanol in fuel (jost over a year ago, I belive)
- Expectation within the last few months that state organisations are to seek growth/development opportunities more aggressively than in the past.
- Feasibility study completed by GEN.NZX on the Taupo/Salix Ethanol proposal
- Maori interests involved in the Salix proposal (hence Maori development)
- General Gov't committment to Kyoto carbon trading and the deficit position NZ found itself in.

Each of these is a weak reason for something to happen. However, combined it adds up to a significant force.

Hell, if it all goes wrong at the pumps - we can still sell the stuff to the Americans as "42 Below"! Add in a bit of Jim's Xylose production and a bit of "Charlies" finest - we could make kiwi teen drinkers very happy and take on the KGB ...

Gold opportunity for Brent King to do the capital raising ... lots of synergy with past life projects.
:)

[Enumerate]

I think it is having something to do with the form of capital raising. I have held other ASX shares that raised money as a fixed amount per holder. Again, limited to NZ/Australia. Hence, I suspect that it is a ASX regulation that limits the offer (or maybe US/UK regulation that insists on a prosepectus).

Basically, they can get away from having a full offer document (latest financials, disclosure of terms etc). They don't need to have an underwriter (extra expense avoided).

Not a bad capital raising option.

[Enumerate]

Yes, I have seen it time and time again - if the Directors put a price of 16cents on the shares - the shares will trade at less than this; if the directors put a price of 4cents on the shares - the shares will trade at less than this.

The only greater stupdity would be to do a 10:1 share consolidation. The shares would trade at less than the consolidated price.

The only way the capital raising will work is if there is a good piece of news close to the subscription date. Maybe the directors are actually extremely clever market traders and have this news up their sleeve. But then again, they could be IP lawyers and scientists.

We're doomed ...

The market is a primitive, savage beast. The only time you can successfully raise capital is when you manifestly appear not to need it!

I must admit, I thought they had the reserves and royalty stream to survive until IND for the HIV/AIDS theraputic.

The capital raising will fail. I wouldn't buy any until it is clear what plan 'B' is (or until a piece of good news surfaces).

[marinesalvor]

I hope theres an apology for the ramping then!

[Enumerate]

The financial weakness of BLT.ASX is the key reason for its depressed shareprice. The fact that they are attempting to raise more funds indicates that the situation is worse than a "back of envelope" assessment would indicate.

However, as has been stated, the reasons for upside scenarios on BLT.ASX are due to its patent estate, royalty income stream and theraputic pipeline. There is no information to indicate that my positive assessment on these assets is not accurate.

Hence, I am holding my position.

Further, I will tender my AUD$5,000 as requested by directors. I, however, fear that my fellow shareholders will not necessarily follow suit.

In terms of "ramping" perhaps you require a definition to understand how inappropriate your comment is. After all, the purpose of ramping is to talk up the value of shares you intend to sell. Since I do not intend selling my shares - by definition, I cannot be accused of "ramping".

I think the directors have been commercially naive to think that they can raise capital in such a weak market. In fact, the ASX listing is not working for them. I think if directors put a price of 16cents on the shares and they trade at less than that - it is likely that putting 4cents on the price of the shares will likely have them trade at less.

Personally, I think they should de-list and explore more flexible capital raising options as a private company.

[Enumerate]

Found the following. It could indicate that the third BLT.ASX pre-clinical trial had obsesity/diabetes as a target.

I wonder if the next round of sport "drugs scandal" will be the use of RNAi technologies to modify energy metabolism and maybe control programmed cell death (apoptosis) of red blood cells?

BENITEC AND GARVAN
Taking “Hot Mouse” Technology Towards Commercialisation
International biotechnology company Benitec and Garvan Institute recently entered into an exclusive research collaboration to develop novel drugs for diabetes and obesity using Garvan’s breakthrough “hot mouse” technology.
In November 2004, Garvan Institute made international headlines with news of the amazing “hot mouse”, a genetically modified mouse that completely lacks the c-Cbl gene. These hot mice eat an extra meal every day but do not out on extra weight as they burn more fat, build more muscle, and are more resistant to Type II diabetes than their c-Cbl positive counterparts.
The license and proposed research collaboration allow Benitec and Garvan to further develop and commercialize the results obtained from these leadingedge studies, which are the result of an earlier collaboration between Benitec and Garvan.
”The phenotype of the c-Cbl knockout mouse, which the Garvan has reproduced in a cell model using Benitec's ddRNAi technology, is truly astounding and we anticipate that further characterization of the c-Cbl pathway will lead to breakthrough therapies for diabetes and obesity and related disorders,”said Sara M. Cunningham, Chief Executive Officer of Benitec Ltd.
Professor David James, Director of Garvan’s Diabetes and Obesity Research Program, who led the discovery and will direct the proposed collaboration, commented “The hot mouse provides a model for investigating therapies that will help us fight the current epidemic of obesity. The unique aspect of this project is that we will focus on developing therapies that turn food into energy instead of storing it as fat.”

[Enumerate]

What other company on the NZX or ASX offers to cure HIV/AIDS and give you flat abs as well! Whats the point of being cured of a deadly disease if you can't look good as well?

I can just see the Informercial - "I munch on my Benitec siRNA and am now in the best shape of my life ...". "It is made up of millions of luminiferese siRNA strands (twinkling fingers as she speaks)". "Buy NOW and the first 50 callers get a free cure for Hepatitis 'C'"

[Enumerate]

Half year announcement. Good news is the lower cash burn and the FRST project. No clarification of the biofuel project.

GEN
31/07/2006
HALFYR

REL: 1655 HRS Genesis Research and Development Corporation Limited

HALFYR: GEN: Genesis Research Announces Half Year Results

Auckland, New Zealand, 31 July 2006 - Genesis Research and Development
Corporation Ltd (NZSX/ASX: GEN) today reported a cash balance at 30 June 2006
of $11.5 million (30 June 2005: $5.1 million).

Revenue for the 6 months to 30 June 2006 was $9.9 million (2005: $1.3
million). This included a one-time item of $8.7 million from the settlement with ArborGen, LLC.

Overall expenditure for the period reduced to $3.8 million (2005: $5.4
million) following the termination of several programmes and reduction in staff numbers. The resulting net surplus for the half year was $6.1 million (2005 deficit: $4.1 million).

Genesis Chief Executive, Stephen Hall, said, "The net recurring cash burn of $2.2 million (excluding one-time costs) was significantly below budget and was a major reduction from the 2005 cash burn of $3.8 million, reflecting the company's focus on fewer projects. Genesis now has a longer term of funding reserves than most other biotech companies. This security allows the company to progress with confidence and to consider expansion opportunities. A FRST
grant for a plant research programme has been renewed for a further 12
months. Further income from licensing and collaborations is also being
pursued.
The internal therapeutics programmes are making good progress. A cancer therapeutic programme has passed initial validation milestones and is now being expanded. In addition, the company is actively exploring several in-licensing opportunities to broaden the Genesis pipeline of projects."

The biofuels programme has demonstrated the viability of producing ethanol, unsulphonated lignin and xylose from shrubby willow. The project has significant commercial potential, both in NZ and internationally, so we are exploring funding to build a pilot scale refinery.

[Enumerate]

Genesis Research Presentation to NZSX SciTech Seminars is available on the ASX web site.

- they have a number of siRNA's in the pipeline - looks like TB is the target??

- lots of material on the BioJoule project - no indication of further commercialisation progress (a gov't grant would be useful)

Well worth a look.

[Enumerate]

I can't help but wonder why someone is repeatingly placing $500 sell orders for BLT.ASX at 3.4 cents?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jolly

Aids and TB and The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation brings to mind BLT and GEN for me. Wonder how much of this will come their way if any.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Gates-gives-500m-to-AIDS-TB-fund/2006/08/10/1154802994872.html

JOLLY, I really find it hard to beleave that BILL or MELLINDA GATES would be at risk of being infected with TB or AIDS. macdunk

[Enumerate]

There seem to be very significant "tidal forces" at play over the BLT.ASX share price.

If you lake a look at the trades data - it is very interesting how the price has been "driven" down and maintained low by small trades. Now there seems to have emerged activities "driving" the price up on small volumes.

Things like repeated $50 sell orders, at the same price. This is stuff that I have not really encountered before on the other stocks I watch.

Not exactly sure what it all means - interesting none the less.

I've got my cash ready for the issue to revised terms of BLT.ASX equity raising!

I agree Jolly, the IND filing will stir some upside activity. Followed by the announcement of the phase 1 trial - this should hit biotech news channels shortly after the IND filing.

However, for me - the big news will be the reactivation of the HCV trial with a JV partner. This will signal BLT.ASX has turned the corner.

I'd expect this news late 2007.

[Enumerate]

Jolly, found the following relatively recent analysis on BLT.ASX:

http://www.intersuisse.com.au/upload/elix/Benitec.pdf

Key point is they value the shares at about 50cents given progress to clinical trials.

Here is their assessment of the IP base:

"Intellectual property - At present we believe that Benitec has freedom to operate in the entire RNAi space. Benitec pioneered the development of ddRNAi and co-owns the seminal patents in the field with CSIRO of Australia. It currently has 13 issued patents in
a number of territories with over 60 applications pending in 19 jurisdictions. Benitec recently strengthened its IP position through an encouraging deal with Alnylam, one of the leading RNAi companies. The agreement cross-licenses the core intellectual property in the field of expressed RNAi: target gene silencing mediated by siRNAs
generated from DNA constructs as well as synthetic siRNAs. In addition Benitec has an option on 5 InterfeRx licenses to pursue synthetic RNAi therapeutics against mutually agreed targets. Alnylam, in exchange, has an option to 5 targets using techniques covered by Benitec’s issued patents. All terms of the cross-license are reciprocal."

Given the preconditions are satisifed - the shares could reach the region of 50cents by April 2008.

However, in terms of the IP assessment - the longer term value could be significantly higher. All roads to RNAi path through Benitec!

[Enumerate]

I think the options are reasonably priced around 1cent (just doing some back of the envelope calculations - 1cent turns into 18cents (50 - 32 = 18). You can buy 3 times the options - compared with the shares. Shares turn from 3 cents to 50 cents = 47cents. 3 x 18 = 54cents. I know it is not a proper "theoretical option value" - however the expectation of earning 47cents in shares roughly equals 54cents in holding 3 times the number of options.

The upside in the options (compared 1:1 with the shares) - you are not risking your capital until success is proven.

The downside of the options - a) they are time limited; and b) capital raising in the short and medium term will dilute share value and hence margin on option conversion.

I am buying shares - rather than options. I think all the risk factors for BLT.ASX are short/medium term. I remain confident that long term (2010, say) they should be reestablished as a major biotech commercial force. The short/medium term risks, I believe, may cause delayes to progress - but I don't see them being terminal. (I do acknowledge that RNAi might prove to be a "bust" - the patents worthless, etc. - however I see this as an increasingly lower probability as time and science advance).

For me, paying a "premium" of a few cents a share, now (share price compared with the option price) is worthwhile to avoid a future 32cent "penalty". Of course, this view is only sustainable if you can support an optimistic view of BLT.ASX commercial developmemt.

As you point out, Jolly, biotech speculation is about spreading risk through building a broad based portfolio. There seem to be no end of undervalued Aussie biotech discovery companies (and one of our own GEN.NZX) to meditate on ...