Dashwood's Wall Street [Archive]

kittydashwood

28-10-2005, 03:11 PM

From: The Rude Awakening, by Justice Litle (www.dailyreckoning.com) 10/5/05
WARNING: RANT AHEAD
"One of the driving forces of this boom – and perhaps what really differentiates it from previous cycles – is the continued environment of low long term interest rates, which has flooded the financial markets with liquidity."
-Financial Times, 'A Favorable Wind for Investment Banks'

Muted applause is in order for Goldman Sachs, which recently turned in record quarterly earnings - up a pleasing 84% from last year's results. And it's not just Goldman that's faring extraordinarily well. White-shoe firm Lehman Brothers is breaking records too, with Bear Sterns and Morgan Stanley in hot pursuit.
The Amex Broker Dealer Index (XBD) is powering to new heights.
Hooray for the investment bankers, minting cash in their Savile Row suits and Hermes ties. These natty boys have the world on a string...But they also have a tiger by the tail. At the same time that Goldman shines, so does the "barbarous relic" known as gold.
At 17-year highs, the atavistic yellow metal is within sprinting distance of $500, even as the investment bankers cash registers are ringing. Strange, that.
It is stranger still that gold would rise from the ashes at the very apex of worship for that august institution, the Federal Reserve. This past summer, graduate student Erin Crowe opened an informal gallery of 18 sketches and portraits she had done of the great man himself, Chairman Alan Greenspan. After CNBC picked up the story, the phone rang off the hook. All pieces were sold at prices ranging from $1,000-4,000. According to The Washington Post, several visitors to the gallery were "telling stories of how they adored the Fed chairman, how he had saved the world and made them millions."
Gold's ascent to 17-year highs would seem to signal that inflationary pressures are also on the rise. If so, we all know what comes next: Rising interest rates and market pain, which means hard times for the investment banks. But this time around, for this strange interlude, both are sharing an upward trajectory. One or the other - Goldman or gold - is due for a fall from grace. But which?
The investment banks have long been riding a wave of persistent - and deliberate - asset inflation. When excess liquidity is pumped into the system, those who truly
prosper are the ones best placed to dip their hands in the river. As the Greenspan cash sloshes and flows throughout the U.S. asset markets, savvy players divert the cash flows toward themselves...just like a farmer irrigating a field.
The investment bankers, masters of prestidigitation, divert cash from many different activities, usually in the name of "advising." They massage the cash and trade it and hedge it; whisper in the ear of corporations deluged by it; and profitably surf the growing swells of debt created by it. There's no business like flow business.
It's an establishment-sanctioned rip-off, of course. Aggressive asset inflation is portrayed as a good thing, all the more so with John and Jane Doe participating via manic housing appreciation. But the real estate pump is a Ponzi scheme, designed to sustain the unsustainable via lines of credit.
The government does its part by rewarding reckless borrowers (tax-advantaged home equity lines of credit [HELOCs]) even as it punishes modest savers (capital gains taxes, hidden erosion, paltry returns on interest).
Like a home electricity meter steadily ticking over, life grows more costly by the hour, if not the day. But as asset values are pumped up with abandon, inflation measures are kept "benign" by the damping effects of stagnating wages and the quirks of our government's inflation-measuring mechanisms. And as asset values continue inflating, the bankers "make the middle" with big smiles on their faces.
Yet while optimists swear the sky is still blue, an ominous buildup of offshore debt is the dark counterpart to this falsely created prosperity.
None of this paper happiness is free; the piper's payment is simply delayed and delayed and delayed some

kittydashwood

30-10-2005, 04:27 PM

Interesting company came up during a search lately.

http://www.sulphco.com/
SUF:AMEX
What We Do
Our principal business is to develop and build proprietary technologies that upgrade “sour heavy” crude oils into “sweeter lighter” crudes.

Sideshow Bob

30-10-2005, 05:12 PM

Presume that they will be doing a bit in Canada with the development of their sand oil fields??? Understand that this is very heavy crude that needs refining....

Oil sands production is predicted to grow dramatically over the coming years, and puts Canada oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia! Only problem is production is much more difficult than conventional oil - but current prices make it more viable.

http://www.macleans.ca/topstories/business/article.jsp?content=20050613_107308_107308

kittydashwood

02-11-2005, 12:04 PM

Strong Technicals for XSUNX made me look then I read more about the technology. A glaringly obvious and brilliant idea. Now can they make it work?

From the website
http://www.xsunx.com/

Key XsunX Milestones

1. In May of 2004, the Company produced working model samples of its semi-transparent photovoltaic glazing process that exceeded 4% electrical conversion efficiency rates. These working models established the basis for process and cell refinement that the Company believes may provide conversion efficiencies of 6% or greater.
2. The development of working models provided the foundation for commercial viability showing that the XsunX process may provide an almost 100% efficiency-to-cost gain that may, for the first time, provide return on investment or â€œROIâ€ ratios that make sense. This 100% gain in efficiency-to-cost is based on Company estimates of Power Glassâ„¢ solar cells operating at as much as 50%, or half, the efficiency of conventional opaque amorphous solar cells yet costing as little as 25%, or one fourth, to produce. Final cost to efficiency analysis will be determined upon completion of development.
3. In June 2004, the Company negotiated an at-cost cooperative venture with MVSystems, Inc., a Colorado based corporation that designs, builds, and delivers state-of-the-art manufacturing tools designed specifically for the thin film semiconductor market. MVS is equipped with both the technical staff and tools necessary for the development and commercialization of the XsunX glazing process. The terms of the working relationship provide XsunX with complete R&D facilities without mark-up for profit on the use of staff and equipment. This helped XsunX to avoid costly outlays of capital by eliminating the need to duplicate similar facilities.
4. In June 2004, the Company launched Phase Two of its R&D efforts under the guidance of Dr. Arun Madan as Chairman of the XsunX Scientific Advisory Board. This plan called for an approximate nine month R&D cycle that at its conclusion is anticipated to provide the Company with demonstrable products and the ability to begin licensing and sales efforts.
5. As of the end of July 2004, the Phase Two development plan had accomplished the successful development of large area manufacturing processes for each of the multiple layers that make up the XsunX solar cell design. This was a big step in moving towards a commercially viable process.
6. In September 2004, the Company entered into a royalty free agreement for the licensing of a portfolio of patents and technologies that cover a wide area of both solar cell structure, design and manufacturing processes. These intellectual properties were developed under the guidance of Dr. Arun Madan whose 30 plus year career in the solar industry began with the creation of the first amorphous solar cell in the early 1970â€™s.
7. On-going development is now underway to establish viable manufacturing techniques for increasing the active power producing ratios of the glazing to as near 100% as possible (i.e. the percentage of total area coated by the glazing that converts sunlight to usable electrical energy as compared to the total size or area of glass or other transparent substrates covered by the glazing).
8. In November 2004, the Company launched development efforts for the Power Glassâ„¢ process on thin films. This area of research and development represents significant commercial importance for the company. By combining the ability to manufacture semi-transparent solar cells on thin-film inexpensive plastics with the use of patented reel-to-reel cartridge manufacturing systems, the commercial viability gains are anticipated to be significant.

kittydashwood

06-11-2005, 12:28 PM

Stop loss limits for my investments in America are set with the help of this page.
http://www.textism.com/bucket/fib.html

Bought more AOB and DESC.
Have been looking at BGC, will it gap up like WIRE ?
Seems like the TIDE has turned nearly time to open the bottom drawer.
SOLD CEE lovely short term mover.
Stopped out of ONNN[xx(] The patterns don't make sense I think I'll leave this stock alone.
What is Bush doing in Argentina?
Increasing tension with South America may see a sharp correction on some of the red hot etf's. Will continue to hold Chile and Mexican stocks but will scale down other South American ADRS.

kittydashwood

07-11-2005, 06:17 PM

Silver group fires bullet at ETF
Proposed Barclays fund faces opposition; launch in doubt
By John Spence, MarketWatch

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A group representing companies that use silver for industrial purposes is seeking to block the launch of an exchange-traded fund tied to the precious metal, leading some observers to question whether federal regulators will approve the proposal.

The Silver Users Association, a nonprofit lobby group interested in keeping an orderly silver market, has asked the Securities and Exchange Commission to deny an ETF currently in registration from investment manager Barclays Global Investors.

The organization says a silver ETF would create a price squeeze in the metal because the fund would have to buy a large amount of silver to back the fund's shares prior to the launch.

BGI spokesman Lance Berg declined to comment about the silver offering, citing the "quiet period" while the fund is in registration, implying the SEC hasn't slammed the door on the ETF yet.

Still, with all the controversy swirling over the silver ETF, some see the launch in doubt.

"I don't think the silver ETF will be released because the supply is too thin," said David Morgan, editor of the Silver Investor newsletter.

Looking for a silver lining

When BGI first filed its silver ETF in June, many expected a speedy approval process from the SEC because the fund was structured similarly to a pair of existing gold ETFs: StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD: and iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU:, which BGI also manages.

The gold ETFs, which hold about $3.4 billion in assets between them, allow investors to buy shares that represent a tenth of an ounce of gold held in a vault. The funds are seen as a convenient, low-cost way for investors to sidestep the costs of buying and storing bullion.

The silver users' group says it's concerned that a silver ETF -- if it became as popular as the gold funds -- would increase the silver market's volatility and drive up prices.

Not everyone agrees. Ross Norman, a director at TheBullionDesk.com, a London-based precious metals research firm, said a silver ETF would bring more liquidity to the silver market. He noted that the two gold ETFs didn't roil markets when their sponsors accumulated bullion prior to the launches.

But the Silver Users Association says the silver market isn't as deep as the gold market.

"A silver ETF would only exaggerate silver's illiquidity given the sheer volume of physical silver needed to be shipped and stored," the group said in its letter to the SEC.

Mining opposition

Industry observers say companies that use silver for industrial purposes, along with silver miners, are lobbying in Washington against the silver ETF.

"My understanding is the SUA has effectively blocked the silver ETF at the SEC," said James Pacetti, president of New York-based consultant ETF International. The SEC as a rule does not comment on financial products in registration.

"The silver mining companies don't want a silver ETF because it may create less demand for their stock, since investors would rather have a pure play on the metal rather than buying mining companies," Pacetti added.

Others say the mining companies would benefit if a silver ETF bolsters demand for the metal and pushes prices -- and profits -- higher. The Silver Institute, an international association of miners, refiners, fabricators and wholesalers of silver, declined to comment on the silver ETF.

But in a conference call with brokerage analysts last week to discuss his company's quarterly results, Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS: Chairman Ross Beaty disagreed with the SUA's claim that a silver ETF would stretch liquidity.

Calling the SUA's position "just plain wrong," Beaty said a silver ETF could provide a useful service for investors, adding that he doesn't believe it would trigger liquidity problems in the silver market.

The SUA says part of its mission is to keep silver prices low and keep the metal readily available for users. The association's members include jewe

Mick100

19-11-2005, 12:37 PM

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

quote:.

I'm disappointed that Duncan MacGregor is not on that list. He can out-guru (or at least out-talk) all of them put together!:D

LOL :D

kittydashwood

21-11-2005, 09:38 AM

Reproduced from candlestick forum:

Early this past week both the Dow and the NASDAQ revealed indecisive trading signals. The Dow formed three spinning tops/doji's at a major resistance level, the 10,700 area. The NASDAQ showed indecisive trading days and even pulled back for a day, but Wednesday the NASDAQ formed a hammer type signal. This was an indication that the sellers were not selling with any great conviction. That same information was revealed in the Dow. Although the Dow was pulling back, it was doing so with doji days, revealing that there wasn't any great conviction from the sellers.

DOW

Being able to analyze the investor sentiment at that level provided for an easy trading strategy to implement. After a series of doji's, there were two simple scenarios. Upon witnessing strong selling, that would have confirmed that the dojis at the resistance level were the signs of a reversal. On the other hand, witnessing a bullish candle would have conveyed a large amount of information. First, it would revealed what investor sentiment was going to do after an indecisive trading period. Second, the bullish candle would have breached the 10,700 level that had acted as resistance. As we saw, the Bulls came back into the market on Thursday, closing above the 10,700 level. This now provides a different scenario for the three doji's. Instead of a potential reversal indicator, they now become evidence of profit taking during an uptrend. This is a healthy process in a trend. Having a few days of profit-taking usually extends the length of an uptrend.

The NASDAQ gapping up after the hammer signal and going into new high territory reveals that the profit taking was over and the new buying was very strong. This makes the analysis fairly simple. The uptrend is still in existence and should continue.

__________________________________________________ __________________

FORD sold off heavily now sitting on the 100MVA support at 18$ and more intensive support at 15$, new resistance now at the gap down 22.40. Should be an easy trade if this stock rallys from 18 to test the resistance at 22. Watching for the hammer and a potential Jhook?

Nice trade on CMT entry at $4.80 sold at $7.29
Still holding GROW entry $4.50 now $8.50, this could leap now it's past the 8$ resistance, I will sell at $10

Reduced holding of ENG added to TROW position, (they have great stockpickers and funds which are all outperforming their peers)

Renewed strength in SAN and other South American stocks, holding.
Will aim to open a medium term position on TKF (Turkish ETF), Turkey is in the grip of a long bull and the stocks are still undervalued. Proximity to Europe and the Mid East petrodollars makes this exchange a attractive bet for emerging market allocation over the next 3 mths.

Currently 95% invested.
Aiming to move to a 30% cash position in the week before Christmas.

kittydashwood

23-11-2005, 12:42 PM

Halved GROW holding @9.40
Like the look of the GSK dip.
Bird flu in Canada? Damm geese.
Where do they go in winter?
Texas! Florida!
Tammyflu anyone? Watch the fear machine start to grind up after santa's finished his jingle bells rally.

Interesting technicals for bottled water stocks.
Late in the day the big green light from the Fed that now only inflation was the a danger, no mention of the housing bubble. Nicely swept under the carpet to slowly deflate. Homebuilder ETF looks set for a weak start. Bids unfilled today as stocks chased up.
FORD Bounced @ 16.60... A little higher than I thought, waiting is good as today may be just christmas shopping for Small Cap funds who have pretty patchy performance this year.

Pressure back on fertiliser sector, steel still showing deep support.

[|)]

peat

23-11-2005, 01:10 PM

apparently mutual funds now have their highest level of investment in stocks (and lowest in cash) ever.

a contrarian signal according to ewi
quote:Elliot Wave .com

Cash levels in stock mutual funds have been tracked for more than 40 years, long enough to see trends in those levels during major bull and bear markets.
During most of those four decades, it was nearly unheard of for the average fund manager's portfolio to have as little as six percent cash; instead it was common for that level to hover at 10 percent or greater.
Cash levels actually stayed above six percent from about 1976 until -- you guessed it -- the late 1990s.
At market lows fund managers hold larger percentages of assets in cash, while at market highs they hold smaller percentages of assets in cash. Thus at times of major opportunity and of great danger, fund managers are the least prepared.
Financial professionals exhibit the same herding behavior that governs private investors, and the notion that fund managers are "less emotional" or "more rational" than shareholders is complete rubbish.
The smallest-ever percentage of mutual fund assets in cash was less than 4%, right at the stock market peak in 2000. Yes, fund managers were more than 96% invested in stocks at the all time highs.

kittydashwood

26-11-2005, 08:38 PM

MMLP found languishing on its 300 mva. Seems the insiders are still buying and excercising options. Could have been a good entry point lately....
Will watch next week with interest.

Martin Midstream Partners LP. The Group's principal activity is to provide marine transportation, terminalling, distribution and midstream logistical services. These services are provided for producers and suppliers of hydrocarbon products and by-products, lubricants and other liquids. The Group operates in four segments: LPG Distribution segment purchases LPG primarily from oil refiners and natural gas processors and resell to propane retailers and industrial LPG users in Texas and the southeastern United States. Marine transportation business transports hydrocarbon products and by-products. Fertilizer segment manufactures and markets fertilizer products, which are sulfur-based, and other sulfur-related products to regional wholesale distributors and industrial users. Terminalling business provides storage and handling services for producers and suppliers of hydrocarbon products and by-products, lubricants and other liquids. In 2005, it acquired CF Martin Sulphur LP & Prism Gas Systems I, LP.

Latest Insider Transactions

C S. Massey 500 Open Market Purchase 11/16/2005
Director
Martin resource l l c 417,784 Exercise of Stock Options 11/14/2005
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

kittydashwood

27-11-2005, 03:23 PM

PARL short term setup emerging.
In fact the whole sector has been technically a good one to trade.
Godd stuff..MTEX lifts divy, AOB private placement for acquisition. IPAR NATRE both have delisting doubts... avoid.

kittydashwood

03-12-2005, 01:46 PM

Well that Paris Hilton wristwatch bought at charity by PARL execs then recreated and launched as a product line. The market loved it.
Nice gains over the shortplay.
These guys could make money out of empty chip wrappers.

Cashing out now sold more GROW as sell signal has emerged. Well have my buy order in at 8.80
Sold out medium term PCU holding for 45% + profits. Copper must be too high????! I fear some major rapid decline in price early January. Will buy in again at 50$.

DESC gave a sell signal which I missed and we are now hopping along the 9.19 support.
SOLD TWTC for a rapid 27% got some of the losses back on remaining ONNN holding CMT sold too early and missed a couple of big up days.

Still holding FORD and TIDE after breaks through stop loss.

[V]

kittydashwood

05-12-2005, 08:03 PM

John Stewart
On Balance Volume - Modified
John Stewart (jstewart@sir-inc.com) 12/2/2005 2:31 PM ET
from http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/

Many market technical analysts look at something called On-Balance Volume, or OBV, in order to predict future price movements in stocks. Joe Granville introduced the OBV indicator in his 1963 book, Granville's New Key to Stock Market Profits. This indicator gives us some insight into what amount of volume is pushing the stock up or down. In order to determine the OBV, you simply take the volume on up days and assign a positive value to it, and then take the volume on down days and assign a negative value to it, thereby keeping a running tally of the sum. This process is illustrated in the chart below.
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Table of On-Balance Volume Method

Why do we care how volume and price are related? The idea behind the OBV indicator is that changes in the OBV will precede price changes. A rising volume can indicate the presence of "smart money" flowing into a security. In the above example, the volume was stronger on the two days in which the stock price rose, indicating that the "smart money" may be accumulating a position in the stock.

In more of a "real world" example, we would chart the OBV and interpret breaks above a selected moving average as bullish and breaks below it as bearish.

If you look at the chart of the Oil Service HOLDRs Trust (OIH: View sentiment for OIHsentiment, chart, options) below you can see where the OBV reading broke above its 20-day moving average in mid-October prior to the large upward move in the security. Buying OIH on that OBV breakout could have led to significant gains.

Daily Chart of Oil Service HOLDRs Trust Since August 2005 With 50-Day and 200-Day Moving Averages, and OBV Indicator

While using OBV can certainly be beneficial in many trading systems, I decided to tweak the way you calculate this indicator. I figured that adding the volume to your running tally regardless of whether the stock was up $1.00 or just up a penny seemed a little silly. So I introduced an element which compensates for this. Before adding the volume for a positive move in the stock or subtracting it for a negative move, you multiply the volume by the price change. Therefore, if the stock goes up by a penny you only add one percent of the volume total. If the stock goes down two dollars then you would subtract 200 percent of the volume total. This is illustrated in the chart below.

Table of Enhanced On-Balance Volume Method

It make take a little extra work, but you can simulate the process used in the OIH chart above by using Microsoft Excel to create your own modified OBV chart with a 20-day moving average. I did this with the Semiconductors HOLDRs Trust ( SMH: View sentiment for SMHsentiment, chart, options) in the example chart below.

Daily Chart of OBV for the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust Since August 2005 With 20-Day Moving Average

This indicator produced a "sell" signal on October 4 and then a "buy" signal on November 2.

Below is a daily chart of the SMH:

Daily Chart of the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust Since July 2005 With 10-Day and 20-Day Moving Averages

These signals would have been timed almost perfectly with the high at the beginning of October and the low at the beginning of November.

This is just one variation of an indicator with which I have had some success, but there are an endless number of indicators and variations on these indicators. Play around with them and you just might find something that works for you!

John Stewart (jstewart@sir-inc.com)

kittydashwood

06-12-2005, 08:28 AM

XSNX up 35% after being featured by WealthDaily.net newsletter. They have 5.29$ as a target. Present price .38

Here's an extract...

Heed this URGENT message from Jeff Siegel, celebrated and cutting edge editor of Wealth Daily who picked Planet Organic (up +158% in 3 months), Evergreen Solar (up 41% in 2 months), and Gaiam (a gain of 110% for 2005)

Jeff just returned from the largest "Future" Energy conference in America... and he's here to tell you...

A tiny high-tech company, which won the 2005 World Technology Award, just unlocked one of the largest sources of energy ever.

They developed a glass window that acts like a solar panel. The window captures sunlight then quickly converts it into energy.

Whether it's your home or a 40-story skyscraper, this window can heat or cool the building!

The company is incredibly small... trading for a market capitalization of just $47 million. But I think it'll be a billion dollar company within 3 years.

Dear reader:

A tiny high-tech company in California just unlocked one of the largest sources of energy anywhere on Earth.

To give you an idea how much energy is at this company's fingertips, its systems could eventually capture more energy in a single month than Saudi Arabia will produce in the next 50 years!

The breakthrough is something called a solar window.

whatsup

06-12-2005, 11:04 AM

Very interesting KD wheres the link?

kittydashwood

06-12-2005, 06:27 PM

Take their rave with a grain or three of sodium.
The newsletter does have a few thousand followers
http://www.wealthdaily.net

The company eluded to is Xsunx (XSNX)
Here's the whole spammy guff....

Dear reader:

A tiny high-tech company in California just unlocked one of the largest sources of energy anywhere on Earth.

To give you an idea how much energy is at this company's fingertips, its systems could eventually capture more energy in a single month than Saudi Arabia will produce in the next 50 years!

The breakthrough is something called a solar window.

A "solar window" looks like a regular window you'd see in a typical office building. In fact, you can't tell the difference between the 2.

Except there's one huge difference. The solar window, which won the 2005 World Technology Award, contains tiny solar film that captures sunlight, converts it into energy, and uses the energy to heat or cool your room.

The invention is blockbuster, and could literally change the way we use energy forever.

The Birth of a New Industry: Endless Energy
Many think this window will single-handedly transform the energy market, making electric utility companies nearly obsolete. similar to what the PC and Windows did to typewriter companies like Brother and Smith Corona.

Jeff Siegel is the managing editor of Green Chip Stocks, an investment advisory service that has had stunning success in 2005 with portfolio returns of over 34% for the year. Jeff focuses on stocks in the emerging and lucrative organic food and renewable energy industries.

Jeff is a new breed of investor. Part entrepreneur, part Renaissance man, Jeff is an accomplished musician and writer, having recorded and performed all over the world - from London to Rome to New York. He was even called upon to score part of the latest Exorcist prequel.

>From 1994 to 2001, Jeff worked for Agora Publishing, one of the largest financial newsletter publishers in the world.

In the past 4 years, he traveled across America searching for mega-trends that'll usher in a new generation of wealth.

Once a week in Green Chip Stocks, Jeff highlights investment opportunities in the fast-growing "Green" market.
I don't know if that'll happen or not. But I do know this.

The company's stock is about to go ballistic.

I'm predicting that it'll increase in value by 1,463% over the next 3 years. To achieve that gain, all the stock has to do is rally to $5.47.

You see, this stock is tiny, trading for $0.35 a share. And it's completely under Wall Street's radar.

But that's changing. And changing fast.

Wall Street is tripping over itself trying to find new and promising alternative energy stocks to invest in.

And the reason is simple: Profits!

Solar Energy Stocks are Producing HUGE Gains!
Company
1/5/04
Price
11/29/05
Price
% Gain
Evergreen Solar
$1.80
$12.00
567%
DayStar Tech.
$2.40
$10.50
338%
Spire Corp
$4.65
$7.50
61%
ECD (ENER)
$9.35
$30.00
220%
Solar-Fabrik
$3.30
$12.00
264%

Not only are alternative energy stocks red-hot right now, posting an average annual gain of more than 40% since 2003.but these companies represent the next generation of energy.

It's the future. Plain and simple.

To give you an example, Sun Power went IPO three weeks ago.

By all comparisons, Sun Power is your run-of-the-mill solar energy company, selling pretty standard solar panels.

But you wouldn't know it by the hype surrounding its public offering.

Analysts originally predicted that Sun Power's stock would open somewhere between $12 and $14 a share. But on the morning of November 17, shares of Sun Power opened at $25 a share. and never looked back, closing the day above $27 a share.

Sun Power now commands a market cap of $1.6 BILLION! And that's on sales of $54 million.

Share the Wealth
With the solar energy industry booming, there's been a trickle-down effect too. Any company directly or indirectly connected to solar is benefitting.

Take MEM

kittydashwood

07-12-2005, 07:19 AM

xsnx took off today 10x normal volume.
hyperbolic momentum.
Today's Price Performance as of 1:14pm EST, 12/06/2005
$0.62
Last Price 0.24 +61.04%
Today's Change $0.42
Today's Open 9,773,293 Above Avg.
Today's Volume
Bid 0.62 size 25 Ask 0.63 size 25 Market Cap $0.00
Day's Range $0.41 - 0.67 Earnings per Share $0.00
52 Week Range $0.01 - 0.67 Price/Earnings NM

whatsup

07-12-2005, 09:12 AM

KD thanx on which exchange is it listed ,what link can we keep track of it on .

kittydashwood

11-12-2005, 05:24 PM

Hi there I think XSNX is on the pink sheets.
This is an experimental company with a good idea and a pile of admin costs. It might never come off.
[}:)]

At least some places get a nice soft 5% landing!!!
Come on Alan get your head out of your **** and work it out.
Your puny inflation band will kill us all if the sea fails to retreat. Get real King Alan Canute move the assets to higher ground and build some floodbanks. Or realise that there is a brave new world order and all the associated terrorists and as a result our property values will never be the same again. Why can't nz growe at 5%??

ECONOMY SLOWS IN OCTOBER, BUT STILL STRONG
(Dec. 6, 2005) Chile’s economy grew at 4.9 percent in October, the slowest growth registered in the past three months, but still strong enough to buoy expectations that Chile will end the year at the six percent benchmark it reached in 2004. Growth for 2006 is anticipated to slow to between 5 and 5.5 percent.

kittydashwood

12-12-2005, 08:39 PM

Bulls Cool on Natural Gas

By Melissa Davis
Senior Writer
12/2/2005 7:07 AM EST

These days, energy bulls seem to be placing some risky bets on the weather.

Granted, energy stocks may look cheaper than they once did. With energy prices falling from their record peaks, big companies such as Apache (APA:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) and Chesapeake (CHK:NYSE - news - research - Cramer's Take) now fetch considerably less than they did during the disruptive hurricane season just two short months ago.

Even so, some experts say, energy stocks -- and natural gas plays in particular -- could take another hit in the months ahead.

"Longtime and long-term bulls on natural gas, as we are, need to look carefully at storage and production levels and the prices in the futures and spot markets," Harry Chernoff, a principal at Pathfinder Capital Advisors, recently cautioned in an article for the trade publication EnergyPulse. "These signs suggest the potential for lower prices in the very near term. ... Only cold weather -- and plenty of it -- can change this situation."

With the weather notoriously unpredictable, Chernoff has decided to play it safe. In recent weeks, he has cashed in some of his gains on stocks such as Abraxas (ABP:Amex - news - research - Cramer's Take) and GMX Resources (GMXR:Nasdaq - news - research - Cramer's Take) -- which more than tripled after he first mentioned them in TheStreet.com -- even though he remains upbeat about the long-term prospects for the sector.

"If natural gas prices go up several dollars, the stocks will go up, too," he concedes. "But if gas prices go down, the stocks will go down a lot more. ... The risk/reward [scenario] is not symmetrical."

Abraxas peaked at $9.25 a share in November but has plunged in recent weeks, ending down 5 cents at $6.58 on Thursday. Meanwhile, GMX Resources hit an all-time high of $30 late last month before losing some ground and closing Thursday with a 99-cent gain at $28.60.
Warning Bells

Chernoff started worrying in early November.

He says he was "surprised" that natural gas inventories held up even after hurricanes slammed production levels in the crucial Gulf Coast area. However, he notes, the market itself showed less reaction. During the weeks leading up to the first cold snap of the year -- which finally hit in mid-November -- he says that gas futures for December still fetched $3 more than actual spot prices for the fuel. He attributes this "unusually wide difference" to nothing more than big gambles on a very cold -- and very early -- winter heating season.

kittydashwood

15-12-2005, 01:52 PM

Flukishly added to a small holding of HAWK just before this announcement.

Petrohawk Energy Corp (HAWK) (14.29 +0.50)
PETROHAWK ENERGY CORP. said it signed definitive agreements to buy natural gas properties from two private entities for a total of $261.67 million in cash. The properties, which have an estimated 106 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents (bcfe) of proved reserves and 100 bcfe of probable and possible reserves, are in northern Louisiana's Elm Grove and Caspiana fields. Petrohawk did not name the entities selling the fields. The company said average 2006 production from the properties was expected to increase to about 20 million cfe per day from their current output of 16 million cfe per day. Lease operating expenses on the fields are expected to be $0.55 per million cfe. Petrohawk said it expected to add $35 million to its 2006 drilling budget to speed the development of the fields, bringing its total 2006 drilling budget to $210 million. The company said it was also currently in the process of divesting properties that include 26 bcfe of proved reserves in the Gulf of Mexico and 7 bcfe of onshore reserves. Those sales are expected to close in the Q1 of 2006. (Reuters 04:03 PM ET 12/14/2005 )

kittydashwood

15-12-2005, 11:39 PM

More simmering worries for those of you investing in South America.
From Venezuelan Electronic News
http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=47366
Overwhelming victory assures Chavez to run for a third term in 2012

THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER editor Bob Chapman writes: Somebody blew up a Venezuelan pipeline just before last week’s election. After what we’ve seen over the past several years, we can only assume it was the work of the opposition and our CIA.

The overwhelming assembly victory assures a constitutional change to allow Mr. Chavez to run for a third term in 2012.

The word thus far is that President Chavez’ Fifth Republic Movement Party claimed 114 of the 167 number National Assembly. About 25% of eligible voters cast ballots in polls boycotted by opponents and voting was deterred by major rainstorms. It looks as though Mr. Chavez’s party won 88.8% of the vote.

Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez Frias and Paraguayan President Nicanor Duarte

Iran and Venezuela signed an agreement this week to conduct a survey to certify heavy crude oil deposits in the oil-rich Orinoco River belt, part of a project to vastly boost Venezuela’s proven reserves. PDVSA will own 51% of the project. Four heavy crude upgrading projects there currently produce 600,000 barrels of oil a day of synthetic crude.

US foreign policy, as has been the case in many countries, has been a disaster in Bolivia. The country has a poverty rate of 63% so there are lots of very unhappy people. The US legitimized Evo Morales’ candidacy for the presidency by casting him as the country’s anti-US option. This is the kiss of death for the US, because the US and Bush neocon’s unpopularity is so widespread south of the border and rightly so.

In spite of their natural resources previous stabilizing measures in the economy ravaged Bolivian society, which heightened inequity and poverty, the people want the Clinton, Bush, Bush policies that have brought them so much grief ended.

Evo Morales is definitely the center of attraction and is currently leading in the race, but the real race comes when the deals are cut after the election when no one has a winning margin. Morales’ identity and ideology is similar to that of Argentina’s Nestor Kirchner and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. Mr. Morales wants legalization of coca leaf production and the nationalization of gas. Morales is a local politician of long standing who has gained strength by taking an anti-US position, which is currently very popular in Latin nations where anti-Bush feelings run very high. Morales, if elected, will then have to contend with the US, elitist, neocons’ attempting to overthrow his government.

You do remember the new US base in Paraguay? We expect lots of fireworks no matter who wins.

* On Sunday, Chile will choose between a candidate who would be the first woman president for Chile and two hopefuls from the right, which has been out of power for 15 years.

Michelle Bachelet, who was imprisoned and tortured under Augusto Pinochet’s dictatorship, ably assisted by the CIA and Henry Kissinger, leads in the polls. If she falls short of 50% there will be a runoff probably against former Santiago Mayor Joaquin Lavin or Sebastián Piñera, a former Senator and one of Chile’s wealthiest men, who are tied for second. Bachelet, former defense minister and a doctor has campaigned on continuing the free market policies and liberal social programs of President Ricardo Lagos, who cannot run for immediate election. Our prediction is Bachelet will win having the most acceptable program for the voters.

This week the Chilean peso rose for the sixth straight session to a new 5 1/2% year high. Brazil’s Bovespa Stock Index surpassed the record of 33,000 for the first time, setting a record. Argentina’s inflation rate rose 1.2% in November versus October and 12% year-on-year. Consumer prices rose 11.1% this year and wholesale prices 10.7% year-on-year.

kittydashwood

18-12-2005, 10:33 AM

http://www.trustnet.com

Is a great aid to regional investing.
Plenty of ways to invest globally without buying high fee liontamers and the like.

kittydashwood

20-12-2005, 08:13 AM

PKD was recently upgraded by schwab.
Share price keeps getting stronger on the promise of enlarged exploration programs next year. The market has greeted the news of the new VP as a positive.
Parker Drilling Announces Appointment of Michael D. Drennon as Vice President, Operations
12/19/2005 8:04:27 AM

HOUSTON, Dec 19, 2005 -- Parker Drilling Company (PKD) announced today the appointment of Michael D. Drennon as vice president, operations. In this role, Drennon will be responsible for worldwide drilling operations and the associated financial performance, reporting to Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Dave Mannon.

Prior to joining Parker Drilling, Drennon was program director for BP's development of existing and potential discoveries in Angola. Drennon spent over 28 years with Amoco and BP in a variety of staff, engineering and operations assignments.

"Mike will provide Parker with excellent leadership and project management skills to implement our strategic initiatives and grow our company," said Dave Mannon. "His experience and knowledge of our business will provide an immediate impact to our company and customers."

Drennon received a bachelor of science degree in petroleum engineering from Texas Tech University in 1977.

Parker Drilling is a Houston-based, global energy company specializing in offshore drilling and workover services in the Gulf of Mexico and international land and offshore markets. Parker also owns Quail Tools, a provider of premium industry rental tools. Parker Drilling employs approximately 3,000 people worldwide and has 48 marketed rigs.

kittydashwood

20-12-2005, 08:14 PM

All sectors of the Dow and Spy except the Aluminium index have expressed sell signals. Time to test the bottom again, a if only the 10000 gang would help the buyers convictions to get through the 11000 mark.

BP, Exxon Mobil hit with antitrust suit
Alaska claims they're withholding natural gas from market

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A dispute over the best way to move Alaska North Slope natural gas to the U.S. market has resulted in an antitrust suit claiming BP Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. are conspiring to withhold the fuel to drive up prices, according to a media report Tuesday.

The action comes as natural-gas prices have flirted with historic highs on fears of inadequate supplies for a cold U.S. winter. Natural-gas futures closed at a three-session high on Monday. See full story.

The suit against BP and Exxon Mobil was filed Monday in U.S. District in Fairbanks, Alaska, by the Alaska Gasline Port Authority, the state agency charged with building a pipeline to move an estimated 37 trillion cubic feet of natural gas - enough to satisfy two year's worth of U.S. demand - from the North Slope fields to U.S. markets, The Journal said.

The authority alleges in its suit that a series of illegal agreements and acquisitions by the companies has choked the flow of gas reserves and seeks a court order to top the companies' alleged collusion, The Journal said.

The authority said that BP's refusal to agree to ship its natural gas and Exxon Mobil's failure to develop its huge fields amounts to "warehousing" a desperately needed resource in an effort to drive up prices. "Gas prices are at record highs, and big oil companies still won't move the gas to market," authority Chairman Jim Whitaker said in a statement, according to The Journal.

Gas now produced by North Slope oil wells is injected into underground reservoirs, The Journal said.

The port authority says it has $18 billion in federal guarantees and the permits to build a pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez in the southern part of the state, where gas would be liquefied and loaded onto tankers, The Journal said. The Trans Alaska Pipeline moves crude from the North Slope to tankers that load at Valdez.

But BP and Exxon favor an alternative, longer pipeline through Canada over which they would have more control, the authority charges in its suit.

Talks between the state and producers on building the longer pipeline have stalled, The Journal said.

BP and Exxon Mobil have balked at the state's terms and a third producer, ConocoPhillips, agreed to basic terms in October, The Journal said.

BP and Exxon Mobil argue a pipeline through Canada to the Midwest would increase the value of the gas by delivering it directly to gas-hungry markets, while the Valdez route would generate less revenue and expose the $20 billion project to greater risk, The Journal said.

"This is another sobering reminder of our litigation-crazed society. This suit is frivolous and it's totally without merit," said Exxon spokesman Russ Roberts, according to The Journal.

kittydashwood

20-12-2005, 10:07 PM

Massive[:p]

kittydashwood

22-12-2005, 10:44 PM

PESO VALUE DROPS SHARPLY ON FRIDAY
(Dec. 19, 2005) Chile's peso had its biggest decline (from 511 to 516 pesos to the dollar) in three weeks after Chile’s central bank late last week halted five months of interest rate increases.

kittydashwood

23-12-2005, 05:05 PM

Finally sold out of GROW for 200% + gains
Have been buying STJ on weakness, it's been as low as 49.75.
Have also been buying Harris and HARRIS
http://www.tinytechvc.com/
They run a closed end venture capital firm (ticker TINY) that specialise in nanotech startups.
They have hit one winner and have an interesting portfolio of investments including Kereos, Inc which develops molecular imaging agents and targeted therapeutics for the detection and treatment of cancer and cardiovascular disease. The imaging agents and targeted therapeutics in Kereos' pipeline are based on proprietary ligand-targeted emulsion technologies.
www.kereos.com

Thats it for me, never made it back into PCU one for the new year weakness maybe, entry 55$? Feel naked without GROW.

Will be looking to material,chemical and energy service sectors next year. Still haven't been able to buy a power generator (barring KEP +20% this year) on the main board. They are all one spill away from bankrupcy, if you ask me infrastructure and ultility in america are *@*($$%! and overpriced. Like GNA CHL CH EWJ MC

Has JNJ stopped the slide?

kittydashwood

30-12-2005, 05:05 PM

6-Month 12-Month AnnualInception
John Keeley 71 20.38% 120 24.72% 17.56% 16.37% 15.62%
David Dreman 91 16.01% 147 16.02% 12.18% 17.14% 15.95%
William Ruane 17 14.24% 23 11.48% 7.19% 12.8%
Bill Miller 10 13.7% 27 15.67% 2.07% 15.04% 16.39%
Glenn Greenberg 2 12.5% 2 12.5% 22%
Robert Rodriguez 2 11.5% 5 4% 15.14% 14.79%
Martin Whitman 12 10.75% 28 14.96% 10.96% 14.14% 17%
George Soros 113 10.55% 144 12.65%
Ronald Muhlenkamp 20 8.75% 48 12.69% 12.52% 16.21%
Bill Nygren 11 7.27% 19 3.21% 11.8%
Bruce Berkowitz 18 6.17% 18 6.17% 15.05% 18.46%
Wallace Weitz 22 5.64% 31 11.1% 5.2% 14.1% 13.1%
Charles de Vaulx 93 4.04% 93 4.04%
Ron Baron 41 4.02% 41 4.02% 10.96% 14.97%
Mason Hawkins 18 3.83% 28 13.14% 11.2% 13.1%
Richard Aster Jr 52 3.25% 92 7.65% 12.54% 20.22%
Robert Olstein 27 3.19% 54 4.57% 7.41% 15.89% 15.84%
Kenneth Fisher 26 2.62% 54 13.63%
Arnold Van Den Berg 18 1.94% 22 10.18% 16.62% 17.05%
Brian Rogers 20 0.25% 41 4.39% 7.39% 10.88% 13.13%
Edward Owens 0 0% 0 0%
James Gipson 2 0% 12 8.67% 8.44% 13.25% 14.87%
Edward Lampert 0 0% 0 0%
Ian Cumming (Leucadia National) 0 0% 0 0%
Warren Buffett 9 -1.11% 15 -3% 7.05% 19.96% 22.8%
Bruce Sherman 25 -1.4% 25 -1.4% 13.72% 21.87% 20.11%
Seth Klarman 3 -3.67% 3 -3.67% 20%
Tweedy Browne 8 -7.13% 15 7.93% 3.85% 9.91% 10.88%

kittydashwood

04-01-2006, 01:59 PM

Fear was replaced by greed today, the charts look like 1998 all over again.:)
xsnx at .65 3 bags full.

GROW showed support at 12.50-12.30 still has a bucket of momentum to unload before it will snap back to 14.50, wait till that next earnings report. The telling sign even with 200% gains insideres are not selling.
In fact Praetorian Asset Management took a big stake at about 10$.
Bought TWTC at 9.50 good move from DESC and ENG today like the look of PWEI.

kittydashwood

05-01-2006, 07:20 AM

Next fad investment?
ZAP
ZP:Pacific Stock Exchange
Last Price: $0.31 Change: +0.03 (+10.71%) as of 12:49pm EST, 1/04/2006

ZAP Electric Car Give-a-Way Adds Buzz to 2006 International Consumer Electronics Show; Scientific American Innovations People's Choice Award Offers the Only All-Electric ''City-Car'' at the World's Largest Technology Exhibition
1:40 PM EST January 3, 2006

Scientific American magazine is teaming up with automotive pioneer ZAP (PCX:ZP) to plug fuel-saving automotive technology at the 2006 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the world's largest technology exhibition, January 5-8, 2006 in Las Vegas.

ZAP will be offering up the new ZAP XEBRA(TM) as the grand prize for the Scientific American Innovations People's Choice Award drawing at CES. Two XEBRAS will be on display at CES: one in the Sands Expo and Convention Center (SECC) at booth #71204, in front of the Digital Living Network Alliance TechZone; and the other will be in the CES Central Plaza (in front of the entrance to the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC) Central Hall is in booth #CP5.

For a chance to win a ZAP XEBRA electric car, visit the Innovations Design and Engineering Showcase at the Sands Expo and Convention Center, Booth #72444. Cast your vote for your favorite Innovations 2006 product at electronic polling stations in the Innovations Showcase. Vote by 1 p.m. Saturday, January 7, 2006, to be entered into a drawing to win a ZAP XEBRA electric car. The Scientific American Innovations People's Choice Award -- and winner of the car -- will be announced at an awards ceremony at 5 p.m. in the Innovations Showcase, during Saturday at the Sands Hotel. The XEBRA can now be seen on the CES website http://www.cesweb.org under 'Awards' in the 'Innovations' section.

ZAP calls the unique three-wheeled vehicle a "City Car," designed to fill the niche for busy stop-and-go, in-town driving. ZAP says the car is ideal for households that want a fun, inexpensive vehicle for running errands around the city. Unlike hybrids currently on the market in the U.S., the ZAP car needs no gas at all -- just plug into any conventional outlet.

ZAP is taking advance orders on the new vehicle. Dealers and consumers can schedule test rides by visiting ZAP at International CES or by contacting ZAP directly at (707) 525-8658 or via its website http://www.zapworld.com.

About ZAP

ZAP, Zero Air Pollution(R), has been a leader in advanced transportation technologies since 1994, delivering over 90,000 vehicles to consumers in more than 75 countries. ZAP is at the forefront of fuel-efficient transportation with new technologies including energy efficient gas systems, hydrogen, electric, fuel cell, alcohol, hybrid, trybrid and other innovative power systems. For more information, visit http://www.zapworld.com.

Cautionary Statement

This press release contains forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including, without limitation, continued acceptance of the Company's products, increased levels of competition for the Company, new products and technological changes, the Company's dependence on third-party suppliers, intellectual property rights, and other risks detailed from time to time in the Company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

SOURCE: ZAP
ZAP Alex Campbell, 707-525-8658 ext. 241 (Media Relations) acampbell@zapworld.com Jennifer Zimmons, 212-838-1444 (Investor Relations) jzimmons@zapworld.com

kittydashwood

05-01-2006, 12:53 PM

Worth waiting GROW bounced off 11.92 and put on 5% for the day. I love it when you get to hit the trigger on a trade you have waited for.

kittydashwood

05-01-2006, 05:57 PM

ZP is on notice from the Pacific exchange for falling below the minumum bid price of 1 dollar.
The company have until the 19th January to sort it out. At .30 cents these guys may be delisted 19/01/06
Distressed company!

kittydashwood

07-01-2006, 09:11 AM

Old resistance on SPY and NASDAQ broken by my calculation.
Big day here. Nice to note the 14% fall in Natural Gas prices for the week. Lovely big gains in the Agricultural Chemical sector, which is great to play as a hedge to rising gas prices, rode TNH from 18.80 last week to 23.03 today. MOT +3.53% STJ 52.82 +4.51% ENG 10.30 +8.42%

My biggest day for two years trading.
:)

kittydashwood

08-01-2006, 03:00 PM

Price on the 352 mva. Price keeps falling and OBV keeps falling, but insiders continue buying and excercising options without sale.

MMLP has commenced an underwritten public offering of 3,000,000 common units under its existing shelf registration statement. MMLP intends to use the anticipated net proceeds from the offering to repay indebtedness incurred in connection with recent acquisitions and to fund expansion and growth capital expenditures.
The dividend is 7.83%.
These type of structures are common with cyclicals in the states and would work well for a float of Fonterra on the NZX. Look at the example of fertiliser parent company Terra TRA and the high yeild units of Terra's subsidary TNH.

Last 10 Insider Actions for Martin Midstream Prtnrs L P Full-text of insider filings at SECInfo.com
Date Name Shares Stock Transaction
11/16/2005 C SCOTT MASSEY
Director 500 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $15,535.00
11/14/2005 MARTIN RESOURCE L L C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 417,784 MMLP Exercise of Stock Options
at cost of $13,506,956.72
11/14/2005 MIDSTREAM FUEL SERVICE L L C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 124,129 MMLP Exercise of Stock Options
at cost of $4,013,090.56
11/14/2005 MARTIN PRODUCT SALES L L C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 308,759 MMLP Exercise of Stock Options
at cost of $9,982,178.47
11/14/2005 MARTIN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CORP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 850,672 MMLP Exercise of Stock Options
at cost of $27,502,225.76
11/10/2005 MARTIN PRODUCT SALES L L C
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 460,971 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $14,999,996.33
11/10/2005 MARTIN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CORP
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security 460,971 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $14,999,996.33
09/14/2005 RUBEN S MARTIN
Chief Executive Officer 2,000 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $67,940.00
03/24/2005 C SCOTT MASSEY
Director 300 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $9,450.00
03/22/2005 ROBERT D BONDURANT
Chief Financial Officer 400 MMLP Open Market Purchase
Cost $12,840.00

kittydashwood

10-01-2006, 06:52 AM

11 000 resistance on Dow only 5 points away, more importantly RUSSEL breaks 700 showing that the real leaders of this rally aren't Tech stocks or Blue Chips but the smaller companies.

WIRE gaps up 2$.
PARL reaffirm earnings.
Re-entered PCU at 70$. This may be premature as I was waiting for a retrenchment to 55$ before re-entry; however dividend coming up should see a 10% run-up if copper stays at the current levels.

kittydashwood

10-01-2006, 07:08 AM

DJIA NASDAQ S&P 500 Russell 2000 DJ Wilshire 5000
11,002.14 2,317.69 1,288.26 706.08 12,947.87
+42.83 (+0.39%) +12.07 (+0.52%) +2.81 (+0.22%) +6.69 (+0.96%) +46.18 (+0.36%)
As of 01/09/06 01:22 PM EST

kittydashwood

11-01-2006, 07:52 PM

Schaeffer on Charts: The Big Picture
Bernie Schaeffer
1/10/2006 9:45 AM ET

"It could be viewed as something of an indicator of how poor a performer U.S. large-cap equities have been ... If it were the first time [the Dow had crossed 11000], it would be even more important ...We shouldn't get too excited."
----(Ben Pace, chief investment officer at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management - The Wall Street Journal - 1/10/06)

Yes, indeed, Mr. Pace.

In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA - 10,965.2) straddled the 11000 mark no less than 32 times on the weekly chart from May 1999 through June 2001, and over a hundred times on the daily chart over this same period.

Weekly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from December 1998 through July 2001

On the other hand, the Russell 2000 Index (RUT - 703.61) closed above the 700 mark for the first time in history yesterday, but I somehow failed to notice a "700 watch" for the Russell on financial television. But perhaps of greatest interest is the chart below of the miserable performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJX - 109.65) versus the RUT since the 2002 market bottom.
And so far in this New Year?
# DJIA: +2.26%
# Russell 2000: +4.45%
It should be no shock to you that I'll take this opportunity to reiterate my bullish posture on the small-cap space as exemplified by the RUT and my negative posture on the blue chips as exemplified by the DJIA. The small caps are under-hyped while delivering strong performance; the blue chips are over-hyped while delivering mediocre performance.

But let me add a few choice words about some of the DJIA components.

* Walt Disney (DIS: View sentiment for DISsentiment, chart, options) - Has managed the very difficult feat of under-performing Time-Warner (TWX: View sentiment for TWXsentiment, chart, options) shares over the past decade.
* IBM (IBM: View sentiment for IBMsentiment, chart, options) , Intel (INTC: View sentiment for INTCsentiment, chart, options) , Microsoft (MSFT: View sentiment for MSFTsentiment, chart, options) - The Big-Three of "yesterday's news in tech".
* J.P. Morgan (JPM: View sentiment for JPMsentiment, chart, options) - The "no place to hide" stock if over the counter derivatives blow up.
* Coca-Cola (KO: View sentiment for KOsentiment, chart, options) - Dead money for a decade and recently overtaken in market cap by Pepsico (PEP: View sentiment for PEPsentiment, chart, options) .
* Merck (MRK: View sentiment for MRKsentiment, chart, options) and Pfizer (PFE: View sentiment for PFEsentiment, chart, options) - The worst of Big Pharma, and that's saying a lot.
* Wal-Mart Stores (WMT: View sentiment for WMTsentiment, chart, options) - Best candidate for "Always the worst-performing retailing stock. Always."
* And finally, there's General Motors (GM: View sentiment for GMsentiment, chart, options) , a stock on which I've made bullish noises for almost a year - "long and wrong", as they say.

GM has been the best-performing stock in the DJIA in 2006, which is all the more interesting given that BusinessWeek asked the question (as of 12/23/05): "Should the Dow Ditch General Motors?" I remain long the shares as I see huge recovery potential should the bankruptcy talk continue to recede. We'll see.
Bernie Schaeffer

kittydashwood

14-01-2006, 03:07 PM

XSNX breaks 1$:)
That's 200% since first mentioned two months ago.
Big volume probably due to the new California solar power laws.
Loads of interesting earnings out next week, could be in for some choppy trading.

Closer too home I have withdrawn entirely from the ASX and increased my PGC holding;)

kittydashwood

16-01-2006, 07:40 PM

http://www.smartmoney.com/trendspotting/index.cfm?story=20060113

The Hard Truth About Money
By Igor Greenwald
January 13, 2006

EVERYONE KEEPS SAYING the dollar went up last year, and I suppose that's true if your measures of choice are portraits of 19th century Japanese intellectuals and sketches of European architecture down through the ages.

The plucky buck is up some 11% since the end of 2004 (through Thursday) against both the euro and the yen, though it's been steadily losing ground over the last six weeks.

But of course the dollar is not "up" in any real sense of the word, not when measured against real assets, rather than similarly flabby fiat currencies. It's not up against gold, crude or wood. It's not up relative to Indian stocks, or Russian bonds, or electricity, or tomatoes, or Wall Street bonuses. And it's most certainly not outperforming real estate from Alicante to Zanzibar , including the distressed but hardly depressed hurricane alley along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

All those asset booms suggest the dollar didn't really regain stature in 2005, so much as it benefited from the perceived failings of rivals. Japan is so starved for growth it's sticking with negative real interest rates to make sure the current recovery doesn't sputter. The euro zone has surplus workers it can't fire, disaffected immigrants no one will hire, endless budget squabbles that leave everyone feeling tired and a Frenchman in charge of the central bank. (Frenchmen are not good bankers, hence Switzerland.)

You can tell this is a race to the bottom, not the top, by noting that any time a central banker opens his mouth these days, the currency he sponsors takes a dive. The dollar hasn't been the same since the Federal Reserve all but assured investors it will stop raising interest rates this spring. The yen began taking on water when Japanese politicians made clear they still want dirt-cheap loans. Currency traders thought the Jean-Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank would finally talk tough this week given recent signs of an economic revival on the continent. But Trichet pulled one of his on-the-one-hand, on-the-other-hand routines, and by the time he got through mentioning downside risks to growth, the euro was on its knees as hopes for a spring rate hike fizzled.

Why are the guardians of our currency, and of everyone else's currency, cooing like a flock of flu-free doves these days? Because their mandate is to guard growth as well as currencies. And in conditions of growing labor competition from Chinese factory workers and Indian software engineers, the path to growth in the developed world is marked with interest-rate cuts, not hikes.

The Bank of England, one of the first to raise interest rates during the current economic cycle, is expected to cut them next month. One of these days, should economic conditions warrant, of course, the Fed may follow.

Incoming Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may not be the Helicopter Ben of Wall Street caricature, but he is coming into his job after a brief but hugely symbolic stint as the top White House economic adviser. Anyone who's worked for President Bush, and anyone Bush would name to lead the Fed, probably shares his view that the business of America is business. And business doesn't want a 5% fed-funds rate; it wants a cheap bond issue to pay for the latest leveraged takeover.

Just the other day, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made news by talking of targeting asset prices before they pump up inflation. But Bernanke is on record as opposing such meddling, comparing it to the flawed economic policies that gave rise to the Great Depression.
There's really no way to read that Bernanke speech from 2002 and think that the Fed will be hiking rates just to do something about the price of gold, or copper, or bricks and mortar. The asset prices that Bernanke does focus on are the yield spreads that have in the past predicted economic slowdowns. It may be no coincidence that the unusually explicit Fed statements about the likely halt

kittydashwood

17-01-2006, 09:17 AM

I keep re-reading this article and wishing I could send it to Mister Bollard. NZ should steal a march on the world and pin the dollar to carbon prices.

kittydashwood

18-01-2006, 10:01 AM

Second Opinion® Weekly - MITTAL STEEL'A' (MT)
Exchange: NYSE
Close as of week ending
1/13/2006
Opinion
Opinion LONG Opinion Date 01/09/06 Opinion Price 27.66
Score 0 C-Rate 0.0
Recommendation
Stock is a Strong Buy.
Comment
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish.
Look for Support at 26.93
Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 1/13/2006)
Week Close 28.03 Week Change 0.37
Week Open 27.95 Week High 28.80 Week Low 27.70
Price Analysis
Yr. High 43.86
Yr. Low 22.11
MO Chg.(%) 4.2
Resistance N/A
Support 26.93
SELL STOP 24.96
Volatility(%) 2.2
Position 77
ADXR 23
Moving Average Analysis
Type Price % Slope
10 Day 27.63 101.5 UP
21 Day 26.83 104.5 UP
50 Day 26.84 104.4 UP
200 Day 26.92 104.1 DOWN

Volume Analysis
Ave Daily Volume(00) 7550
MO Chg.(%) -34.5

Up/Down Volume (U/D)
U/D Ratio 1.4
U/D Direction UP

On Balance Volume BL
Positive OBV BL
Negative OBV BL

Money Flow(MF) 67
MF Direction UP
Technical Analysis
Alpha -0.13 50-Day R.S. 1.04 OBOS -1
Beta 2.04 STO(Slow %K) 73 B.BANDS 19
MACD ST BL STO(Fast %K) 30 RSV 23
MACD LT BL Wilder's RSI 71 POWER RATING 81

kittydashwood

18-01-2006, 08:06 PM

1:29am 01/18/06

Tokyo Stock Exchange halts trade 20 minutes early - report By Tom Bemis
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Tokyo Stock Exchange halted share trading 20 minutes early Wednesday, according to a report by the Associated Press. The early halt to trading was due to an order overload caused by heavy trading volume, according to the report, which cited an exchange official. Tokyo stocks plunged for a second day amid investor concern over an accounting scandal at Livedoor, an Internet company.

kittydashwood

19-01-2006, 07:00 AM

Waiting for QQQQ order never filled.
Bought CFPC ENG MT AV DESC MC AOB
Lovely red everywhere but my alternative energy folder stays green apart from XSNX which is due for a pullback to the gap at 1.26 maybe?
Saw post about Cornell Tech being involved in XSNX and sooner or later they come along and pull the legs out of there tech ventures.

Hmmm still a ten bag opportunity imho

kittydashwood

20-01-2006, 05:58 AM

Ring the bell to yesterdays frantic tech & asian adr buying.
AOB WIT EBAY KEP:)

MOT reorts after the bell.
AAPL looks pretty tasty right now support at 78.90's
Insider buying on discovery channel very interesting, strong brand huge PE of over 100 but a CONTENT PROVIDER with strong brand.... rare.

Joined George Soros in ISE a few days ago. Great rise on the back of yesterdays panic and today....

News Story
ISE Announces Daily Record Trading Volume
10:03 AM EST January 19, 2006

The International Securities Exchange (NYSE: ISE), the world's largest equity options exchange, today announced that it set a record for daily trading volume of 3,385,677 equity and index contracts on Wednesday, January 18, 2006 surpassing the previous record of 3,240,012 contracts set on April 15, 2005.

ISE Background

The International Securities Exchange, the world's largest equity options exchange, was founded on the principle that technology fosters and infuses new efficiencies and operational innovations into securities trading. After developing an innovative market structure that integrated auction market principles into an advanced screen-based trading system, ISE launched the first fully electronic US options exchange in May 2000. ISE continually enhances its trading systems to provide investors with the best marketplace to execute their options orders.

For more information about ISE, its products and its technology, visit www.iseoptions.com.

SOURCE: International Securities Exchange
International Securities Exchange Media: Bruce Goldberg, 212-897-8168 bgoldberg@iseoptions.com or Investors: Thomas Gibbons, 212-897-8167 tgibbons@iseoptions.com

ISE might make a good hedgey hold for Mister Cullen's gnomes this year of VIX breakout???

You hear that gnomes! Buy ISE and remove capital gains tax on overseas share investments with the profits.

kittydashwood

20-01-2006, 04:46 PM

Good luck with your investments everybody kdw is hanging up the keyboard and retiring early.
I guess the most reliable patterns for this market are the J-hook in sell off and the MACD cross prior to gaps up.

manuka

22-04-2006, 01:16 AM

WHAT A SHAME, I MISS YOUR POSTS!! :(

manuka

22-04-2006, 01:18 AM

XSNX & GROW...nice

Dazza

21-07-2006, 10:53 PM

kitty, u still doing this, keep it up

as im gonna start trading again soon after august on wall street

kittydashwood

23-07-2006, 08:22 PM

Yes I am still getting up at 1.30am and trading the US exchange.
I will post details of my trades here
http://www.kittydashwood.com/

For what it's worth there is a 75% chance that Monday will see the markets rise.
They are massively oversold and SPY DOW and QQQQ all below long term support. Infact the Nasdaq is at it's lowest level since 2003.
That 25% downside could be nasty as the charts to friday look a lot like the charts before the 1987 crash. Russel from Dow Theory suggests we are for a major resumption of the bear. SPY to 900 makes a logical fibonacci target, how that translates in NZ is hard to gauge.

Now I try to be cash every night as I do not take the short side.
However some days I take up overnight positions.
Good trading available on the volitility.

Good Luck All

DISC. HOLD
SLB VLO ICE ISE TAYD MTW IWM PGG FBU PPP CGMO PPOA IFTWB CGM NZX

kittydashwood

07-08-2006, 02:45 PM

Wall Street’s Women Face a Fork in the Road

By JENNY ANDERSON
Published: August 6, 2006 NYTIMES

IN the spring of 2000, Elizabeth Stoeber, an ambitious 32-year-old investment banker at Morgan Stanley, flew to California to visit a client in the throes of a multibillion-dollar stock deal. The technology boom was under way, and Ms. Stoeber was on a roll; she was working on a high-profile deal in a profession she adored. With her in first class was her 9-month-old son; in coach sat her German nanny.

Elizabeth Stoeber of South Orange, N.J., left Wall Street in 2001 but now wants to return. With her are her sons, Karsten, 7, and Johannes, 2.

By Ms. Stoeber’s account, it was an ideal time. During the day, she visited investors; at night, she used a company car to cruise around Beverly Hills with her son. “I thought I was making it work,” Ms. Stoeber, now 39, recalls. She had a successful career in the cutthroat, male-dominated world of banking, a happy family, a good marriage and a supportive boss.

Within a year, things had fallen out of balance. Resenting handing her son’s childhood over to nannies, she accepted a job as chief operating officer within Morgan Stanley’s media banking group, an administrative post that allowed her to work part time. That plan fizzled. “Off” days ended up as afternoons in the park doing business on her cellphone while her son begged her to play.

When the tech bubble burst in 2000, Morgan Stanley cut her job. To stay, she would have had to reconsider full-time work. Yet three days a week was already a struggle. In 2001, Ms. Stoeber left Wall Street. Since then, she has started a consulting firm and now works for a boutique investment bank.

“I was absolutely determined to stay professionally attractive,” she said.

Now she wants to rejoin banking’s major leagues. And her timing should be perfect: Wall Street says it is looking at women like Ms. Stoeber with new interest, hoping to rehire those who left for personal reasons while continuing to woo new female recruits.

But getting back on track on Wall Street has proven more difficult than Ms. Stoeber, or the banks seeking her services, might have imagined. Although banks are doing much more than paying lip service to the notion of retaining women or enticing them back to work, executives say long-term success means fundamentally changing the way Wall Street works. Gordon Gekko, Hollywood’s idea of a swashbuckling, suspenders-clad banker, did not telecommute. Women remain the minority sex on the Street and many young recruits say they have grown more circumspect about a career there.

The Street says it wants to change all of this, not simply because it is socially expedient but because the financial world needs a diverse work force to make money and court clients — especially when clients themselves are not homogeneous.

“You can’t build a great company without great people, and great people are not just white, straight men aged 25 to 40,” said Joe Gregory, president of Lehman Brothers. According to a study by Columbia University’s Center for Work-Life Balance, white males represent just 17 percent of the global talent pool of individuals with graduate education.

WOMEN’S aversion to intersecting with Wall Street appears to be mounting: Generation Y, also dubbed the “Millennials,” say they value balance more than financial security, suggesting fewer will gravitate to the cutthroat environs of the Street. Bank executives say fewer female M.B.A.’s are choosing careers on the Street, and the banks also say they have had limited success stanching the flow of women who leave midcareer. Of course, not all women leave to raise a family. Some elect to care for parents who are aging or ill; others seek alternative careers with more manageable hours.

According to interviews conducted by Universum, a company that helps employers brand themselves to attract employees more effectively, current female undergraduate and graduate students at top universities express hope that Wall Street will be both a manageable place to work and

trackers

12-08-2006, 12:20 PM

Like your blog Kitty, watching with interest to see how you go :)

kittydashwood

14-08-2006, 08:46 PM

The Chile Fund first attracted me with it's single country focus and it's good dividend.
Stopped out of half of my position back in late April when the wheels feel off the emerging market stock prices. Many stateside got nervous about the new leftist PM. Still Chile has the most robust democracy in South America and more copper than Australia.
CH recently appeared on my improving conditions scan. I will look to resume my full position tonight.

Houston Chronicle, USA

Chile, China Ratify Free Trade Accord

9 August 2006

SANTIAGO, Chile (AP) - Chile’s Senate on Wednesday unanimously voted to ratify a free trade agreement with China, Foreign Minister Alejandro Foxley said.

All 31 senators approved the accord, which had been ratified by the lower house of Congress last month and is expected to take effect this year.

The accord calls for the lifting of duties for 92 of the products exchanged by the two countries over 10 years.

Both governments expect the deal will rapidly increase bilateral trade which reached $6.9 billion last year, with a $1.8 billion surplus for Chile.

Chile could "become a bridge of union between Asia and South America," Foxley said.

During the first half of this year trade totaled $3.6 billion, with a $647 million surplus for Chile.

The first products to be exempted from duties are Chilean copper and other minerals, vegetables, fish oil, fish, chicken, shrimp, peaches, nectarines, as well as Chinese machinery, televisions, printers, computers and automobiles.

Chile has in recent years signed free trade deals with the United States, South Korea, Mexico, Canada, the European Union, New Zealand and Singapore, and has advanced talks on deals with India and Japan.

kittydashwood

15-08-2006, 11:28 AM

Failure to hold onto todays gains stateside would have been very disappointing for a few big players. I'm sure they'll get sick of losing and stop playing soon. Up 50 points by 10 am up 100 by lucnhtime, IWM bid right up to the descending trendline and for a few moments worked up to 68.73 before the monster unload at 68.67 For a few moments the java depth display froze under the weight of 7.3 billion changing hands at market.

I got hurt in the steel sector, stopped out of my sole trade of the day. OS threatened to reclaim 49$ then was the first sector to fail straight after the opening rally.
Reduced IWM at 68.71 reduced CME on huge OBV downdraft lately, sold a few GROW into new breakout strength (22.35)
Of course it kept going. Made a few longterm buys on MVL NWY ODFL PAC IPSU MTW

Some hotspots still exist and will be worth watching in select sectors. But for someone with a long only game i seem to be working for the broker this month.

skinny

16-08-2006, 09:27 PM

Kitty, I think you were saying your were trading the drillers? Or was it Ananda? Have been stopped out a few times with them on US markets over the past couple of weeks, most fustrating, but think (at some point!) they will be one of the best buys around, anywhere. Below is a nice bit of analysis picked off the CWEI board on investor village that paints the picture:

[quote]quote:

The stock market, as a leading indicator of roughly 6-8 months, is predicting that dayrates and earnings for offshore drillers will be coming down in the 1st & 2nd quarter of 2007--that peak earnings for drillers is either right at hand or just past. Is the market right? This question has been eating away at me recently.

I keep going back to the example of the housing sector. In mid 2005, profits were growing like gangbusters, valuations were low and the real estate market was on fire. Yet in mid 2005, housing stocks like TOL and DHI started to decline in the face of all this good news. In Aug-05, TOL was at ~$56/shr and DHI was at ~$42. At today's close, TOL is $24.53 and DHI is at $20.7. On the recent conf calls of TOL & DHI, profit expectations are being cut back, the companies are taking charges on abandoned land purchase options and sales are slowing. Ergo, the market was right in Aug-05 as the housing stocks began their descent.

Is the market right about the drillers? In May-06, DO touched $97/shr, ESV $57, RIG $90, RDC $48 and GSF $65. Most of us know where these stocks closed today. Are we in the midst of housing sector déjà vu, with further dowside coming for the drillers?

There are two big differences between the offshore drillers and the housing sector.

One, is the time it takes to build houses vs. rigs. I live in Atlanta, and about 400 new large homes have been built in the past year within ~4 miles of my house with plenty more being built right now. Houses can be built quickly and easily. But it takes ~3+ years to build a jack-up or a semisub rig and costs hundreds of millions. These rigs are not something the local S&L finances at a whim. Most are built with contracts already signed. So, the housing market can unquestionably become saturated much more easily than the offshore rig market.

Two, housing prices are subject to the whims of the current real estate market and can change on a dime unpredictably. Yet dayrates for rigs are set several months if not years in advance and the rates are well known. So, visibility into housing prices is murky at best and varies all over the country, whereas visibility into dayrates is transparent (posted right on the drillers' websites for all to see) and are set with firm contracts paid for by profitable E&P companies with deep pockets.

So, lets look at these transparent dayrates. As many of you know, I've been posting dayrates from rigzone.com, and those dayrates are showing no signs of a drop at all. But let's drill a little deeper (pun intended) and look at a specific company--D0.

Here is the most recent Rig Status update for the DO fleet, as 08-Aug-06:

http://www.diamondoffshore.com/excel/August%207,%202006.xls

On it are a few key data points I'd like to highlight. Dayrates for deepwater semisubs are particularly strong. Here are some examples of DO's deepwater semisubs:

Rig Name..Current rate..expiration..new rate after expiry...% diff in dayrate
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Ocean Quest...low $270s....Apr-07....mid $350s thru Apr-09..30% higher dayrate
Ocean Star....mid $170s....Oct-06....mid $380s thru Oct-07..124% higher dayrate
Ocean America..low $230s....Apr-07....low $400s thru Apr-08..74% higher dayrate
Ocean Valiant..low $300s....Mar-07....mid $390s thru Mar-08..30% higher dayrate
Ocean Victory..mid $200s....Dec-06....low $320s thru Dec-08..60% higher dayrate
Ocean Baroness.low $200s....Dec-06....low $360s thru Dec-09..80% higher dayrate

So, there it is--completely transparent for all to see. G

kittydashwood

17-08-2006, 10:27 AM

Yep I trade the drilling sector. Like you I've been stopped out of RIG and DO. The worry is that as earnings decline PE's will compress. Of course the discounting is exacebated in a falling market.

I hold SLB and PKD long and still have a candle for UNT & ENG but can't seem to get a position for the right price. UNT looks the best technically, stop at 54$? Mainly land based natural gas driller, overall i think we have another rally to look forwards to in this sector before it tops.

Scheaffer has a option tip for SLB 70 put.

This from Scheaffers this week.

It should be no surprise that a monthly chart of the AMEX Oil Service HOLDRS Trust (OIH: sentiment, chart, options) shows significant price increases during the past four-plus years. On a monthly relative-strength basis, OIH significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index (SPX) until April of this year. Since then, the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has lagged the SPX.

OIH is subject to heavy optimism from the speculative options crowd, indicated by its Schaeffer's put/call open interest (SOIR) percentile ranking of 17. However, there is little sentiment in place to push the ETF higher, as it would take slightly more than 1.5 days to cover the 15.62 million shorted OIH shares. That said, OIH earns a bearish Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard score of 3.0 out of a possible 10. This low ranking indicates that the path of least resistance for OIH is a slippery slope that leads lower.

On a side note, you can find composite Scorecard scores for various ETF's here. Clicking on the sector name will take you to a scorecard page listing individual components and their scores, this is OIH's drilldown page.

I took a look at OIH's components and found several with a Scorecard rating of 3.0 or lower, indicating the potential for an attractive bearish play. I compiled all of these companies into the chart below, but today I will concentrate on Rowan ( RDC: sentiment, chart, options) and Noble (NE: sentiment, chart, options) .

**** NB RIG also turns in a 3 scorecard on the scheaffer system.

kittydashwood

18-08-2006, 10:51 AM

Stopped out of HAWK & SLB :(
Now holding only BPT FTO CHK from energy sector
It's sad when a sector which lead for so long blows up.
Hard to see beverages, food and accomodation sectors really
taking up market leadership and giving us any type of half decent run.

Lovely short term climax with GROW.
Also stopped out of MTW after a stellar surge.

Hard to feel comfortable long when the RUT is above 700.

kittydashwood

27-08-2006, 10:32 AM

Ok Long again as the RUT looks weaker than the SPY and the DOW for the first time in a mighty long time.
Still getting stopped out on the record volitility and still making money in media, food and healthcare.

Bought back into SLB

When IAAC and GROW fail i'm back to cash.
Hurricane Ernesto building but this season could be a fizzer and oil may slip. However I feel natutal gas and heating oil will spike as the winter will be very cold stateside and traders have last years mild winter in their minds.

Very scary over here in lala land right now 43% of new home loans this year interest only. Buyers are keeping prices high and sellers are not arriving. Volume? Nearly zero Inventory? Massive Holiday Home? Well forget it unless you want to take a 25% loss.

Scary very scary.
Turn the water off for one day and the whole LA valley will riot.
What cops? What backpack? What dirty bomb?

this from minyanville>

John Succo
Aug 18, 2006 9:19 am

...the reduction in systemic liquidity from the slowdown in housing, from less people borrowing, is being replaced through us by hedge funds that are still taking the credit.

"What do you have for me today Bill?"

"Well sir, we did another $2 billion in repo yesterday morning with the New York Fed. We certainly do not need the cash, but the repo rate was so attractive that I took it in. I called around and once again, the only takers of the cash was our stock arb desk and prime broker."

"Yes, I spoke to commercial lending Wednesday and they are at their risk limits. What is our stock position and how much are we out on prime broker?"

"The figures as of Wednesday night show us long stocks and short futures about three quarters our limit and we believe the rest of the Street is similar. Just so you know, the spread has been getting cheaper into expiration and our trader does feel there is a growing chance that we will wind up selling a large amount on expiration one of these times. If we do, then others will as well so it might shake the market somewhat. It may even be in September. The prime broker has been a consistent taker of capital. One thing that does concern me is the level of leverage they are at with hedge funds in general. They tell me that as volatility in the markets goes down, their VAR risk models allow them to lend more to the funds. There is demand for leverage from hedge funds for the same reason...as volatility goes down they want bigger positions to make the same amount of money."

"Are you suggesting another LTCM?"

"No sir, this is a little different. LTCM was using huge leverage, maybe 100 to one, trading assets that did not move much. The currency crisis made those assets move 50 times more than they usually did and all that was concentrated in one huge fund. This is a more general and marginal increase in leverage, maybe from four times to six or seven times, but these hedge funds are trading much more volatile assets with more directional risk. Interestingly what it is doing is injecting liquidity into the system as they borrow more from our prime broker and buy more risky assets. This is our biggest business, sir, and we have to be very careful not to curtail it at the wrong time. But the risk is growing due to the cross correlation of the hedge fund system....We know that as volatility rises, the process reverses and hedge funds will try to reduce risk by liquidating and reducing leverage. As that happens some will experience enough losses to cause redemptions. This will actually cause a request from these funds for us to increase lending to them just at the wrong time. If we cannot get liquidity ourselves at that time we may actually request funds that are doing fine to reduce their leverage to compensate."

"What are you saying Bill?"

"Well, the reduction in systemic liquidity from the slowdown in housing, from less people borrowing, is being replaced through us by hedge funds that are still taking the credit. The problem is that there is a scenario where this may unwind and reverse if volatilit

kittydashwood

29-08-2006, 08:52 AM

XSNX up on good volume today.
Look at the support that kicks in at .58
Technical P&F buy?

Most like to be the governator himself as California third phase experiments looks very good to me. Most of my pyshics is geotechnical but the output has been interesting.

skinny

01-09-2006, 12:30 AM

A cute story on one of Wall Steets *very* old timers.

Gordon, Wall Street Icon at 105, Avoids U.S. Stocks (Update1)

By Christine Harper

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Albert H. Gordon took over Kidder, Peabody & Co. in 1931, turned it into an underwriting leader on Wall Street, and saw opportunities overseas before many rivals.

He's still looking abroad at the age of 105.

After eight decades as an executive and investor that spanned from the roaring 1920s to the age of terrorism, Gordon says he's ``bearish'' on U.S. stocks partly because of the $8.41 trillion national debt. He prefers shares of companies such as Canada's EnCana Corp., Wal-Mart de Mexico SA de CV and Petroleo Brasileiro SA.

``At least three-quarters of whatever I own is foreign stocks,'' he says from his Manhattan apartment overlooking the East River.

Gordon, who has outlasted Kidder as well as Wall Street staples like ticker tape, is a role model even to octogenarian elder statesmen such as former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Co- Chairman John Whitehead and ex-President George H.W. Bush. This year, Gordon stopped going to the office at Deltec Asset Management, where his son John is a senior managing director.

A marathon runner into his 80s, Gordon now has a hearing aid and walks with a cane and assistance from a nurse. His opinions are still sought because he's one of the few living Wall Street investors who worked in the years leading up to the stock market crash of 1929.

While his three current favorite stocks each climbed at least 13 percent this year through yesterday, almost triple the 4.5 percent gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, Gordon built his reputation as a salesman rather than as an investor, says Whitehead, 84.

Presidential Role Model

``He was a famous business-getter,'' says Whitehead, a former rival. ``Work hard and never give up -- those were very valuable lessons I learned from trying to compete with him.''

Whitehead, who joined Goldman Sachs in 1947, remembers vying for clients against the more experienced Gordon at St. Paul, Minnesota-based 3M Co., where Gordon's relationship was so close with then-Chief Executive Officer William McKnight that Whitehead says he focused instead on cultivating the next generation of executives. It didn't work right away, he says.

When McKnight died, Whitehead says, his will stipulated that Gordon and Kidder should handle any sales of McKnight's stake in 3M.

Gordon's influence extended to the highest levels of the U.S. government. He befriended Prescott Bush, a U.S. senator from Connecticut from 1952 to 1963 and grandfather of President George W. Bush, and served as a role model to George H.W. Bush, the 41st U.S. president.

``He taught me a lot about ethics and values,'' says George H.W. Bush, 82. ``He's a very energetic man of great character.''

Harvard Benefactor

Gordon, the son of a successful leather merchant in Boston, graduated from Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in 1923 and from Harvard Business School two years later. He attended business school at the urging of his father, who he says lived to age 88.

Today, one of the main roads into the business school bears a plaque calling it ``Albert H. Gordon Road'' in recognition of his advice and donations over the years. Harvard declined to comment on the amount Gordon has given to the school.

``Al Gordon was a master salesman,'' says Samuel Hayes, 71, an investment-banking professor emeritus at Harvard Business School who met Gordon in 1961. ``He was an effective rainmaker long after he ceased to manage the firm on a daily basis.''

As a bond salesman at Goldman Sachs in the 1920s, Gordon says he considered stock values excessive and steered clear of the market before it crashed. That helped him a year later in 1930 to capitalize when a Harvard classmate, Edward Webster, approached Gordon to help rescue Kidder, a brokerage based at the time in Gordon's hometown of Boston.

Planes and Trains

They moved the firm to New York, and Gordon, who would go on to become the firm's seni

kittydashwood

08-09-2006, 05:28 PM

Tomkins Deflation Evidence

Shares of Tomkins Plc, the world's biggest maker of car wiper blades and timing belts, fell the most in 14 years after the company said profit will miss targets on slumping U.S. demand for its auto parts and home fittings, according to Bloomberg.

* London-based Tomkins Plc fell as much as 16% after the company said 3Q profits will fall short of analyst estimates.
* What does a UK company have to do with the U.S. consumer?
* Tomkins gets two-thirds of its sales from the U.S. where it makes air- conditioning systems and bathroom fixtures for houses.
* The company also supplies parts to Ford Motor Co. and General Motors.
* According to Bloomberg, Tomkins makes one in four U.S. bathtubs.
* Well, they're car-related, so the slowdown in sales is natural given the weak condition of American auto makers, right?
* No, the slowdown is as much building related as auto related. "North America has slowed down markedly at a time when building activity would normally accelerate,'' Tomkins said.

kittydashwood

09-09-2006, 03:11 PM

GROW new high 34$ up 16% today.
Reported earnings seven times last years.
Still running the top fund as judged by Lipper in select resource class.

Good profit from their own trading activities too.
Watch their allocations, often ahead of the curve.
These guys were cash in ApriL before the rest.
:)

kittydashwood

11-09-2006, 07:50 PM

Final denial rally before the looming gloom...

Prediction reiterated Hurricane season weak and late.
(must buy less SLB)
Winter very cold and long.(must buy more (HAWK)
More deep water elephant hunting (must buy more RIG)
Wall Street will cntinue to be artifically suspended from skyhooks by the plunge protection team (must buy more MS GS LEH)
Some traders are better than others(must buy more GROW, IAAC and NITE)

kittydashwood

13-09-2006, 11:11 AM

Had to buy more ENG and IAAC & FTO
Held all my long term oilers but the stops are looming..
Most finished off their lows, even SLB showed some support?
Bought OMR DOC and XSNX again today.
DOC are interesting here's the ramp ramp rah rah from cheerleaderwatch.com
Digital Angel Corp
490 Villaume Avenue . Phone: (651) 455-1621
South St. Paul MN 55075

Fax: (651) 455-0413

Digital Angel Corp. was incorporated in Delaware on December 1, 1981 as Medical Advisory Systems, Inc. to provide medical assistance and technical products and services. On March 27, 2002, the former Digital Angel Corporation became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Medical Advisory Systems and was renamed Digital Angel Technology Corporation and Medical Advisory Systems was renamed Digital Angel Corporation. In connection with the merger, Applied Digital Solutions, Inc. contributed to Medical Advisory Systems, all of their stock in Timely Technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary, and Signature Industries, an 85.0% owned subsidiary. These two subsidiaries, along with Digital Angel Corporation, comprised Applied Digital Solutions' Advanced Wireless Group. As a result of this contribution, Timely Technology became a wholly owned subsidiary of Digital Angel Corporation and Signature Industries became an 85.0% owned subsidiary. On January 22, 2004, Digital Angel Corporation completed the acquisition of OuterLink Corporation. OuterLink Corporation a wholly-owned subsidiary of Digital Angel Corporation, provides real-time, satellite-based automated tracking, wireless data transfer and two-way messaging with large fleets of vehicles, such as utility trucks, helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, long and short-haul trucks, service vehicles and ships. The Company's pet identification system is marketed by Schering-Plough Animal Health Corporation in the United States under the brand name Home Again, in Europe by Merial Pharmaceutical and in Japan by Dainippon Pharmaceutical. The Company's Animal Applications segment develops, manufactures and markets radio, electronic and visual identification devices for the companion animal, livestock, laboratory animal, fish and wildlife markets worldwide. Digital Angel technology is the integration and miniaturization of three technologies into marketable products: wireless communications, sensors and position location technology. Signature Industries, located in the United Kingdom, operates the Company's Global Positioning Systems and Radio Communications business. This segment consists of: manufacture, design and support of secure Global Positioning Systems enabled search and rescue equipment and intelligent communication products and services for telemetry, mobile data and radio communication applications serving commercial and military markets. The Company's medical telecommunications response center provides medical assistance services and interactive medical information services to people traveling anywhere in the world. Assistance is provided by telephone, satellite, high frequency radio, fax, Internet and telex. The Company also sells a variety of kits containing pharmaceutical and medical supplies. Digital Angel directly supplies pharmaceuticals to their maritime and airline customers through their pharmaceutical warehouse facility located in Owings, Maryland. As of December 31, 2003, the Animal Applications segment represented 65.2%, the Wireless and Monitoring segment represented 0.4% and the Medical Systems segment represented 6.2 percent of the Company's consolidated revenue respectively. The revenue in 2003 relates primarily to a software support contract, assumed from Timely Technology. As of year ended December 2004, the Company recorded Net revenue of 46.3 million an increase of $11.9 million or 34.5% from $34.4 million in 2003. As of February 28, 2005, the Company had 246 full time employees, including 8 in management, 22 in sales positions, 43 in administrative positions, 50 in technical positions and 123 in production positions.

Company at a Glance

Industry: Health Care Providers Emplo

kittydashwood

18-09-2006, 08:23 AM

Sep 16, 2006 8:26 am

Where's the Bling?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/?a=11177

Increasingly it seems it is becoming "cool" to disassociate from luxury and symbols of wealth.

A $15 basketball shoe endorsed by Knicks' player Stephon Marbury hit stores in mid-August. "Beginning Saturday, September 9th, with two stops at Steve & Barry's locations in Cincinnati, Ohio, Marbury will tour the country through Thursday, September 28th. In most cities, Marbury will conduct in-store autograph signings, work out at local gyms with high school basketball teams, and meet with participants of youth programs to teach them about taking responsibility for their actions and to ask for their input to further develop new Starbury Collection sneakers and clothes," the URB1 website reported.

Here is the kicker: "The tour is part of Marbury's efforts to reinforce the mission of the Starbury Movement, which is to eliminate the incredible pressure kids and parents feel to spend top dollar on the latest sneakers, clothes and other merchandise that they often cannot afford.

Thanks to Minyan Mike D for pointing this out late Friday. We've experienced such a long secular trend in risk-seeking behavior and the (over)-valuing of all things financial that it is difficult to imagine the extent to which a structural shift might reverse that. What remains undervalued are intangible assets; relationships, time, quietude, reflection - all those things that are difficult to define and whose value deflated in the mania for goods and financial assets. Socionomically, the way we must deal with a decrease in time preferences and an increase in personal savings is by psychologically devaluing the former symbols of the bull market - luxury goods, ostentatious shows of wealth.

The Starbury One is yet another example of the transition we are living through. A few years ago it would have been unthinkable for a professional athlete to endorse an "inexpensive" product like a $15 shoe since the bull market demanded the association of athletic ability, wealth and persona with high-price tag goods. Increasingly it seems it is becoming "cool" to disassociate from luxury and symbols of wealth.

kittydashwood

22-09-2006, 08:40 PM

Successfully preserved capital this month but also only just covered costs.
Have found myself nervously long drawn into what is appearing to be a nasty bull trap. I have still not got into the chemicals sector despite the natural gas wane and feel most of the easy relief money has been made look at the nitrogen makers like TNH very nice paper trade I didn't take.

Took some losers mind....
Have been stopped out of ENG and TIVO although still hold some.
Have been stopped out of SLB although still hold some. Traded the sugar buzz with IPSU last week on the right side of the trade. The sugar crunch has come and i want some cheap.
Some of these companies also have claims to confiscated cuban property and if Catsro ever died would be back in court in Havanna trying to get the plantations back.

Bought into DDRX as they move into wholesale coffee and flick their retail exposure to starbucks. Good strategic shift now if they would only pay a special dividend...

Long on Marvel has been a winner from 19- 24 in a couple of months, still probably a decent attempt at thirty left in it.
What did people want in the 1929 depression? Comic books! Games! Sport! Movies! Maybe why i have been holding Midway games (MWY) and watched MAT but didn't get in.
Sold NWY and at 11 and regretted it as the fed inspired rally pulled it up to test old highs.. Got nervous about american personnal debt and the ability of people to shop at JCP or pay their CMCSA bill.
The middle class squeeze vunerabilities may have to go soon.
Insiders continue to buy MTW makers of cranes and tractors which gave me reason to trade into them recently and continue to enjoy their volitility on a daily basis.
It's nice to have someone you know behind the flicky tickers and hanged men.
CH closed fund looks good on weakness with this report the latest in a string of free trade deals.
Japan, Chile agree on trade pact
September 22, 2006

Japan and Chile had reached a basic agreement on a bilateral free trade pact, a foreign ministry official said yesterday.

Tokyo planned to announce the pact today after cabinet approval, ministry official Yoshihiro Higuchi said. The countries would then sign the agreement early next year.

Japan exports cars, automotive parts and electronic appliances to Chile. Under the pact, Chile will reduce tariffs on Japanese exports. - Sapa-AP, Tokyo

Still hold PCU despite technical sell signals.
Surely just GS running the stops again.

kittydashwood

25-09-2006, 08:42 AM

..if they break simultaneously, there isn't enough cash or a large enough Plunge Protection Team to stop the cascading of prices.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11262

pago

30-09-2006, 09:20 PM

hi kitty, great blog,dow tests record high but this does not feel good.speaking from intuition only,given the uncertainy in the usa economy,housing drop,hugh deficits,inflation,etc,whats driving the dow up,i can only speculate that the market is being controlled for political reasons,any views,cheers pago

kittydashwood

02-10-2006, 11:15 AM

Makes me sad to see the subversion of the great American ideals and the hollowness of this recent high. Still the denial rally has had it's first leg up, bound to be more good news to come as we heat up into the mid term elections. Unfortunately we are already overextended as the market is not cheap contray to the institutional agruement that versus earnings coporate america is underpricced, PE multiples are compressing as margins shrink. So denial rally could continue throughout October and November but I'm sure we will all be too exhausted for a christmas rally. In fact the DOW could be our christmas turkey.

Plenty of money to be made going long in select sectors. Still Soros has returned -3.9% this year so most professionial managers are underperforming Mary Holm.

Amaranth scared the bejessie out of some stocks, check out the fall of the OBV in GROW (leading boutique fund manager in hot areas) more to come surely a few natural gas bargins to be had...great to see the natural gas flipside get a big run. Chemical, nitrogen tires all go well on crude weakness the make nice natural hedges or coupled trades with OIH members.
Better than going short as you collect dividends off both holdings.

This from the NEW YORK TIMES....
In the autumn of 68 B.C. the world’s only military superpower was dealt a profound psychological blow by a daring terrorist attack on its very heart. Rome’s port at Ostia was set on fire, the consular war fleet destroyed, and two prominent senators, together with their bodyguards and staff, kidnapped.

The incident, dramatic though it was, has not attracted much attention from modern historians. But history is mutable. An event that was merely a footnote five years ago has now, in our post-9/11 world, assumed a fresh and ominous significance. For in the panicky aftermath of the attack, the Roman people made decisions that set them on the path to the destruction of their Constitution, their democracy and their liberty. One cannot help wondering if history is repeating itself.

Consider the parallels. The perpetrators of this spectacular assault were not in the pay of any foreign power: no nation would have dared to attack Rome so provocatively. They were, rather, the disaffected of the earth: “The ruined men of all nations,” in the words of the great 19th-century German historian Theodor Mommsen, “a piratical state with a peculiar esprit de corps.”

Like Al Qaeda, these pirates were loosely organized, but able to spread a disproportionate amount of fear among citizens who had believed themselves immune from attack. To quote Mommsen again: “The Latin husbandman, the traveler on the Appian highway, the genteel bathing visitor at the terrestrial paradise of Baiae were no longer secure of their property or their life for a single moment.”

What was to be done? Over the preceding centuries, the Constitution of ancient Rome had developed an intricate series of checks and balances intended to prevent the concentration of power in the hands of a single individual. The consulship, elected annually, was jointly held by two men. Military commands were of limited duration and subject to regular renewal. Ordinary citizens were accustomed to a remarkable degree of liberty: the cry of “Civis Romanus sum” — “I am a Roman citizen” — was a guarantee of safety throughout the world.

But such was the panic that ensued after Ostia that the people were willing to compromise these rights. The greatest soldier in Rome, the 38-year-old Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus (better known to posterity as Pompey the Great) arranged for a lieutenant of his, the tribune Aulus Gabinius, to rise in the Roman Forum and propose an astonishing new law.

“Pompey was to be given not only the supreme naval command but what amounted in fact to an absolute authority and uncontrolled power over everyone,” the Greek historian Plutarch wrote. “There were not many places in the Roman world that were not included within these limits.”

Pompey eventually received almost the entire contents of the Roman Treasury — 144 million sesterces —

kittydashwood

05-10-2006, 08:12 AM

sounds like another rate hike early 2007 could be needed to keep the surface tension on the denial bubble. i hear ben has a fleet of choppers loaded with north korean printed 100$ bills ready to go. Unfortunately it's no win and he has already raised rates too far.
UPDATE: Bernanke Sees 'Substantial Correction' In Housing
2:08 PM EDT October 4, 2006

(Updates with more Bernanke remarks)
By Brian Blackstone
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday ratcheted up the central bank's recognition of the extent of U.S. housing market weakness, calling recent declines a "substantial correction."
Weaker housing will probably shave about one percentage point off gross domestic product growth in the second half of this year, Bernanke said in response to questions following a speech in Washington, adding that it will likely weigh on 2007 growth as well.
He did note, however, that outside of housing, other sectors of the economy remain "relatively strong."
Bernanke's remarks about a "substantial" housing correction were more strongly worded than the most recent Fed pronouncement on interest rates and the economy. In its policy statement Sept. 20, the Fed referred to a "cooling" in housing. Before that meeting, it cited a "gradual" cooling in policy statements.
The Fed last month kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% for a second-straight meeting. Economists expect the funds rate to remain there through the end of the year, with expectations growing that the Fed's next move will be a rate cut in 2007, partly reflecting the effects of the housing slowdown.
Over the long run, good job and income growth and low mortgage rates should support housing, Bernanke said.
The Fed chairman reiterated the Federal Open Market Committee's recent assessment that while inflation remains a risk, it should moderate over time.
Inflation "is still above what we would consider price stability," Bernanke said.
He added the Fed must stay on guard to ensure that inflation doesn't elevate, "or even remain where it is."
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge - the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy - is currently running at a 2.5% year-on-year rate, which is above the Fed's understood comfort range of 1% to 2%.
-By Brian Blackstone; Dow Jones Newswires; 202-828-3397; brian.blackstone@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-04-06 1408ET
Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

kittydashwood

09-10-2006, 04:56 PM

Yen, South Korea Stocks, Won Fall on North Korea Nuclear Test

By Jake Lee and Kyung Bok Cho

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese yen and South Korea's stocks and currency declined after the North Korean government said for the first time it had carried out a nuclear weapons test, defying calls for restraint from world leaders.

The yen fell to 119.10 against the dollar at 12:31 a.m. Tokyo time, from 118.83 before North Korea's government- controlled news agency reported the test. South Korea's Kospi slumped 2.3 percent to 1321.38. The won dropped 1.1 percent to 959.40 in Seoul, according to Barclays Capital.

``The fact that North Korea has gone and done a nuclear test adds to a new level of uncertainty in that part of the world,'' said Tony Morriss, a currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. ``The U.S. dollar will benefit from safe haven flows.''

North Korea, which announced plans for the test on Oct. 3, faces the prospect of a United Nations resolution that may include the threat of a military response. An Oct. 6 UN statement, drafted by Japan, expressed ``deep concern'' about any test and said it would be a ``threat to international peace and security,'' the standard for future Security Council action.

The yen reached 119.16, its lowest since March 13. Should the currency decline through its year-high of 119.40 per dollar it will drop to 121 in coming weeks, said Morriss.

North Korea has ``safely and successfully conducted an underground nuclear test,'' the Korea Central News Agency said. ``The nuclear test, conducted in a scientific method and under specific calculations, did not cause any danger.''

The South Korean presidential office began an emergency security meeting of its ministers at 11:30 a.m., the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Nuclear Talks

Japan's currency slipped to a seven-month low against the dollar last week after Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Shotaro Yachi on Oct. 5 said in Washington that the communist nation may explode a bomb in coming days.

The U.S. and Japan have been joined by South Korea, China and Russia in talks with North Korea aimed at getting the communist nation to scrap its nuclear program.

The yen slid 0.8 percent and the won slumped as much as 1.1 percent on July 5 after North Korea fired missiles over the Sea of Japan. Foreign investors have sold $5.9 billion more Korean stocks than they bought since North Korea tested the missiles, including a long-range Taepodong-2.

``A nuclear test is different from just firing missiles,'' said Yang Jeung Won, who oversees about $2.1 billion as chief investment officer at Samsung Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul. ``North Korea is making its neighbors very nervous because unlike before, they don't look that eager to talk things out.''

Default Risk

The risk of owning South Korean bonds surged. The price of credit-default swaps based on $10 million of South Korea's dollar-denominated debt rose to $26,000 per year from $24,100 Sept. 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was the biggest increase in 16 months.

The five-year contracts, which protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the notes should the government fail to meet its obligations on time.

``The obvious victim of this nuclear test is the won, because of the country's close proximity to North Korea, and Japan will suffer too,'' said Nizam Idris, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG.

Samsung Electronics Co., the most valuable company in the Kospi, fell 13,000 won, or 2 percent, to 635,000. Hyundai Motor Co., the nation's biggest automaker, lost 1,100 won, or 1.4 percent, to 78,100. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in South Korea today to discuss the threat from North Korea.

A nuclear test is a threat to Japan, as Tokyo is 1,295 kilometers (809 miles) from Pyongyang. North Korea's firing of missiles in July sparked a debate on whether Japan should consider pre-emptive strikes, which are banned under curren

kittydashwood

16-10-2006, 11:28 PM

Goldman, JPMorgan Split on Rates, Investing Strategy (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEeMfVJg_oGY&refer=home
By Michael R. Sesit

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate will fall from its current 5.25 percent during 2007, ending the year at 4 percent.

The economic gurus at JPMorgan Chase & Co. see it rising to 6 percent.

The difference means billions of dollars of investor money may be headed to the wrong place. On the basis of its economic forecast, Goldman recommends equities. JPMorgan prefers cash as a defensive strategy.

``It's not unusual for firms to have different views, but the difference in magnitude and direction between Goldman and JPMorgan is unusually large,'' said Nicholas Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, which has about $30 billion under management. ``What matters is that investors should understand the logic behind each view and then decide whichÿview is right.''

The focus of the debate is arguably the world's most important interest rate. The federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, is controlled by the world's most powerful central bank in the world's biggest economy. The New York-based firms' projection of that rate is key to the investment advice they give institutional investors and wealthy individuals.

Housing Slump

Interest-rate futures show that traders expect the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark rate next year, though not as far as Goldman projects. The yield on the December 2007 Eurodollar futures contract is 5.00 percent.

Goldman bases its forecast on the slumping housing market, which it says will drag down the U.S. economy enough to persuade the Fed to lower short-term rates. The firm sees U.S. consumption growth slowing from an annualized 4.8 percent in the first quarter of 2006 to 1.8 percent in the second quarter of next year.

All of that will come from a declining housing market, said Jim O'Neill, Goldman's head of global economic research in London.

``The big difference between us and them is that they see little consequence of the housing slowdown, whereas we see significant consequences,'' he said. Prices of existing homes in the U.S. fell in August for the first time in 11 years and purchases declined 0.5 percent.

Goldman forecasts U.S. gross domestic product growth will slow to 2.3 percent in 2007 from 3.4 percent this year. By yearend 2007, O'Neill also projected 10-year Treasuries to yield about 4.5 percent, compared with 4.80 percent now.

Cheap Credit

JPMorgan, by contrast, says U.S. growth will be buoyed by the continued flow of cheap credit from abroad and falling oil prices, said Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan's chief economist in New York. Companies are benefiting from the weak dollar and profit margins are at a 40-year high.

Though falling housing prices will buffet the economy, U.S. growth will average about 3 percent in 2007, Kasman said. Oil prices that stayed near the current $59 a barrel would boost U.S. growth by 0.75 percentage point during the next two to three quarters. He also noted that the 4.6 percent U.S. unemployment rate hasn't risen even as housing contracts.

``We're seeing the economy getting hit by a sectoral shock but not being hit by a spillover into other sectors,'' he said.

Corporate profits rose to $1.75 trillion in the second quarter, equivalent to 13.3 percent of gross domestic product. Profits' share of GDP was the highest since a record 14.1 percent in the last three months of 1950.

Defensive Stocks

As other evidence of U.S. economic strength, Kasman forecasts that core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, will remain in the mid-2 percent range. JPMorgan economists see 10-year Treasury yields peaking at 5.75 percent.

Goldman's O'Neill noted that JPMorgan was one of the few firms that remained bullish about the economy. Indeed, Goldman has some big-league company in the bearish camp, including Merrill Lynch & Co and U.

kittydashwood

19-10-2006, 10:33 AM

Minxy 12k nailed on very suspect rally that smacks of central liquidity games.

Crazy how Paulson from GS is moved into the Bush administration and subsequently GS trim petrol from their commodity index, intso managers everywhere sell down oil goes down, inflation and rates go down, houses go down, rates go down, m3 goes up(figures no longer public).
On the last leg of denial the market rallies to Spy 1550 just in time to give incumbent republicans a lift at the polls. At this stage the dow is making new resistance so who knows where it could stop. Lots of managers stateside are holding cash and bonds and more good news could fuel more moves up.
Whatever caused it we are now a hell of a long way up and certainly today many of the companies in the Russel I follow like MTW and GROW were giving signs of topping out for the short term.

The question is how will sentiment hold on the first big dip which could be tommorrow. All indexes are well overbought.
Cash 25% Small Cap US 40% Large Cap US 20% International 15%

DJIA 11,992.68 +42.66 (+0.36%)
NASDAQ 2,337.15 -7.80 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,365.96 +1.91 (+0.14%)
Russell 2000 763.41-1.50 (-0.20%)
DJ Wilshire 5000 13,701.75+11.14 (+0.08%)

The US breakout rally is still alive... just!

kittydashwood

24-10-2006, 07:43 AM

From Motley Fool
Christmas Bells Are Ringing

By Dan Caplinger
October 23, 2006

A survey done last year by a New Zealand newspaper showed that while giving gifts for Christmas is a worldwide activity, people in different countries tend to give differently. For instance, although the survey indicated that New Zealanders were more likely to give gifts than Americans, the average American spent far more on Christmas gifts -- more than double the amount spent by New Zealanders. Americans spend an average of about $1,000 on gifts each year.

The spending, however, isn't limited to gifts. Consider the other expenses you typically incur during the holiday season. Many people travel to visit family members at both Thanksgiving and Christmas. As your neighbors start putting up elaborate displays in their yards, you may feel compelled to buy at least a few sets of lights and decorations. Buying food and beverages for family gatherings, office parties, and other seasonal celebrations can add up in a hurry. Throw in the sometimes irresistible urge to pick up a little something for yourself during your shopping trips, and it's easy to see how your spending levels can go beyond your best intentions.

In the rush of the holiday season, it's easy to forget about how much you're spending. Putting your expenses on your MasterCard (NYSE: MA) or Visa is a convenient way to shop, but if you're not careful, you won't realize the true extent of your expenses until you get your January credit card statement. If you're worried about getting yourself into financial difficulties over the holidays, here are some ideas that may help you keep things under control.

1. Plan early
When it comes to dealing with your holiday obligations, it's easy to procrastinate. Yet the most successful gift-givers always seem to have a system in place. For some, looking for potential holiday gifts is a year-round pursuit. This has the twin benefits of spreading out gift costs throughout the entire year and of having most, if not all, of the gifts ready by the time December rolls around. Even if you can't bring yourself to shop all year long, you can start putting money aside so that when the holiday shopping season begins, you already have a large fraction of your gift budget saved in cold, hard cash.

Planning also includes figuring out when you're going to buy your gifts. For shoppers who are willing to brave the crowds, the annual Thanksgiving sales thrown by nearly the entire universe of retailers -- including traditional department stores like JC Penney (NYSE: JCP), electronics specialty stores like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), clothing stores like Gap (NYSE: GPS), and bookstores like Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) -- can sometimes represent the best opportunity to cash in on unique bargains. On the other hand, some shoppers respond to busy stores by throwing their budgets to the wind and grabbing the first thing they see to get them out of the store as quickly as possible. For them, shopping during unpopular times like Monday and Tuesday nights or using online gift sources like Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) or eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) can help keep emotions from overwhelming financial considerations.

2. Be creative
Let's face it: Some people have high hopes for their gifts. If you have a family with expensive tastes, one way to help everyone get what they want is to set up a system in which each family member buys just one major gift for one other person. Since this means each person can focus their resources on that one gift, high-ticket items can suddenly come within reach, even for those of modest means. While this means there will be fewer presents to open, the gifts that are there will be appreciated even more. And if you find yourself with some money left over, there's nothing stopping you from buying small gifts for others if you want.

On the other hand, for some gift recipients, it really is the thought that counts. Cheap gag gifts can bring howling laughter into your home when it's time to open the presents. Also, making hand-cra

kittydashwood

05-11-2006, 05:54 PM

Has the great run of SAN come to an end?
discl. hold SAN

Merrill Adds Chile La Polar; Trims Banco Santander,Enersis
10:01 AM EST October 27, 2006

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Merrill Lynch added Chilean retailer La Polar (LAPOLAR.SN) to its Latin American model equity portfolio and reduced exposure to Banco Santander Chile (SAN) and power utility Enersis (ENI) on Friday.
In a research report, Merrill Lynch said it expects strong earnings growth from La Polar as it opens new stores and looks for "new opportunities abroad." The retailer's strategy of catering to lower-income consumers, keeping costs down and operating smaller stores is a model that is "easily capable of traveling to Peru and other LatAm markets," the report said.
Banco Santander Chile and Enersis are still rated at buy, Merrill Lynch noted. The investment firm has a positive outlook on Enersis' 2007 earnings and believes the company might invest in generation projects in Chile, Brazil and Peru.
As for Banco Santander Chile, Merrill Lynch said the company enjoys steady demand growth for credit and "a stellar performance in terms of cost control and efficiency." The investment firm's analysts forecast 16% loan growth in Chile for 2006 and 12% in 2007. Banco Santander Chile's focus on retail banking should position the company to benefit from this expansion in credit, the report said.
Merrill Lynch has a neutral recommendation on Chile in its model portfolio for the region. Earnings growth, while healthy, has lagged behind the Latin American average, the report said.

- By Wailin Wong, Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938 5240; wailin.wong@dowjones.co

kittydashwood

07-11-2006, 10:11 AM

From Schwab Market Insight 2/11/2006:
Five Myths of Exchange-Traded Funds
by Michael Iachini, CFA®, Director, Mutual Fund Research, Schwab Center for Investment Research®
November 2, 2006

Reprinted from the October 19, 2006 issue of Schwab Investing Insights®, a monthly publication for Schwab clients.

By now, you probably know a thing or two about exchange-traded funds, better known as ETFs. You know that ETFs are basically index mutual funds that trade like stocks. You know that they have low expenses and are easy to trade. You know that they are a cheap, easy, tax-efficient way to get good diversification.

Or you think you know all of that.

In fact, many ETFs may not have all of the good characteristics that you associate with this increasingly popular investment type. Many ETFs have higher expenses than you might expect. Some can be difficult and expensive to trade. Some flirt very openly with active management rather than traditional indexing. Others can give you taxable income. And some give you no diversification at all.

Here are five commonly held myths of ETF investing, and why it pays to look beyond your first assumptions.

Myth No. 1: All ETFs have low expenses
The first thing that many investors think about when they consider the good qualities of ETFs is the low expenses they carry. This is true for many traditional ETFs, such as the S&P 500® SPDR (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index and carries a tiny expense ratio of 0.10%. But did you know that some ETFs charge much more? For instance, most ETFs that track single-country indexes—such as the iShares for the United Kingdom (EWU), Japan (EWJ) and Germany (EWG)—charge 0.59%. You'll also tend to pay more for funds that are focused on a specific industry, such as the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil and Gas ETF (IEO), which charges 0.48%. Another example: ETFs that follow unconventional indexes, such as WisdomTree DIEFA High-Yielding Equity ETF (DTH), which charges 0.58% and weights stocks according to fundamentals like earnings, dividends and cash flow.

ETF expenses currently top out at 0.95% with the ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), a leveraged ETF whose price rises $2 when the index rises $1, and the Short Dow 30 (DOG), an inverse ETF whose price rises $1 when the index falls $1. The expenses may be worthwhile if you need the specific exposure the ETF provides, and they are still generally less expensive than actively managed mutual funds. But be aware: The fact that something is an ETF doesn't necessarily mean it's the cheapest option.

If you're trying to compare expenses between an ETF and a mutual fund, the expense ratio is a good place to start. You can screen by expense ratios in the ETF Visual Screener on schwab.com. ETFs will also have a transaction fee that you pay when you buy or sell--just like when you trade a stock. Mutual funds may have a transaction fee as well as a sales charge (or load). For more information on mutual fund expenses, read Watch Out for Fund Expenses on schwab.com/marketinsight.

Myth No. 2: All ETFs are easy and cheap to trade
Investors also love ETFs because of their liquidity—the ease with which they can be bought and sold. It's true that you can trade ETFs anytime during the day, just like a stock. But there's a cost to trading, and it's not just commissions. Whenever you buy or sell anything on an exchange, there's a bid-ask spread—the difference between the higher price at which investors are asking to sell and the lower price at which they're offering to buy. For ETFs that are actively traded all day long, the bid-ask spread tends to be quite small. But less liquid ETFs (that is, those that are harder to trade) tend to have much larger spreads. In addition, unlike open-end mutual funds, the price of an ETF doesn't necessarily match the net asset value of the securities in its portfolio. The difference is known as the discount or premium to net asset value, and it can be very unpredictable. More liquid ETFs tend to have smaller discounts and premiums. So while you can trade an illiquid ETF anytime,

kittydashwood

10-11-2006, 05:08 AM

Stellar result. Bought these at 3.35 good stocks are hard to stay long in.
After the 2-1 split in January there will be a .25 cent special dividend.
These guys know emerging markets and resources well so the price seems
to track along beside the china bull. Can be volitile so not for the faint hearted.
Recommend

:):):):):)

Now where is the next GROW?
I have been watching boutique fianiancial SIEB (womens brokerage for women) as the democratic win could see a momentum wave for women stateside amplify into a broad meme.

U.S. Global Investors Opens FY07 with Strong Quarter
Asset Management Company Reports Revenue up 81%, Earnings Rise 126%

SAN ANTONIO, Nov 09, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- U.S. Global Investors, Inc. (GROW :
US Global Investors Cl A Pfd
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 36.56+5.16+16.43%
10:47am 11/09/2006
GROW is a boutique registered investment advisory firm specializing in natural resources and emerging markets, reported today that earnings in the quarter ended September 30, 2006, more than doubled from the same period in 2005.
The company recorded net income of $2.48 million, or 32 cents per diluted share, on revenue of $11.91 million during the first three months of fiscal year 2007. That compares to earnings of $1.10 million, or 14 cents per diluted share, on revenue of $6.57 million during the same quarter a year earlier.
The company has scheduled a webcast for 10 a.m. Central time today to discuss the company's key financial results for the quarter. Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer, will be accompanied on the webcast by Susan McGee, president and general counsel, and Catherine Rademacher, chief financial officer.
The growth in revenue and earnings in the first fiscal quarter of 2007 compared to the corresponding quarter in FY2006 is mostly due to increases in advisory fee revenue associated with the near doubling in assets under management. Most of those new assets were attracted to U.S. Global's natural resources and emerging market funds.
"On a year-over-year basis, we are very happy that our assets under management have grown as much as they have, even though natural resource and emerging markets were very volatile in the quarter and assets declined temporarily for the resource and emerging markets funds," said Frank Holmes, U.S. Global's CEO and chief investment officer. "We remain bullish on the long-term growth prospects for emerging markets and the need for natural resources to build, fuel and feed the world's 6.5 billion people."
U.S. Global's fund assets under management averaged more than $4.79 billion for the first fiscal quarter, compared to the average of $2.4 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2005. The average assets under management for the latest quarter include $198.7 million in offshore funds.

Selected financial data (unaudited) for the three
months ended Sept. 30

2006 2005
Revenue $11,907,513 $6,574,522
Expenses $8,195,200 $4,859,052
Tax expense $1,232,608 $619,535
Net Income $2,479,705 $1,095,935
EPS (basic) $0.33 $0.15
EPS (diluted) $0.32 $0.14
Avg. common shares
outstanding (basic) 7,573,776 7,492,493
Avg. common shares
outstanding (diluted) 7,637,712 7,587,049
Avg. SEC-registered fund
assets under mgmt $4.6 billion $2.4 billion

As of September 30, 2006, the U.S. Global Investors fund family had several funds leading their peer groups and the overall mutual-fund sector in time periods going back as far as five years, according to the rating company Lipper Inc.
For the 12 months ended September 30, 2006, U.S. Global's Gold Shares Fund (USERX) was ranked #1 by Lipper in total return among all domestic funds and the company's World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) was ranked #3.
For the five years ended September 30, 2006, the World Precious Minerals Fund ranked #2 in total r

kittydashwood

12-11-2006, 01:33 PM

SIEB is starting to look very tasty.
If we close above 3.90 next week I will add more.
I guess part of the meme on women coming to the fore in the states.

And they make good stock pickers look at the average playmate up 31% this year.

TradingMarkets.com is hosting the Playboy 2006 stockpicking contest. The top three playmates are up a blended 31% with Courtney Culkin, Miss April 2005, in the lead so far, up 41% YTD.

Go to:
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/stock_picking_contest/index.cfm?sec=dailystanding

THE first fund to invest in hedge funds solely run by women is about to be launched in America as new analysis claims that they perform better than funds run by men.
http://www.thebusinessonline.com/Document.aspx?id=18305289-ECBC-4A05-A24D-35980E97BEDE

seems like a niche and has gained backing from the Monaco-based Safra family and Fortress, the private bank.

Now bring on 2008 Hilary v Condi for the top job. Maybe the glass ceiling will finally go in the US. Hell they can't do any worse than the gungho macho wallies who have chundered on Japanese Prime Ministers, choked on pretzels and had quickies in the annex.

kittydashwood

16-11-2006, 06:33 AM

Head and shoulders on the USD v Euro looks like we have got all the ducks in a row for continued rally, dropping industrial output stateside suggests the landing isn't so soft. Rate cut stateside before the end of the year? or will the grinch steal christmas? I feel that a rate cut would be viewed negatively by the market. In preparation I have been pruning in economically sensitive sectors.

So many divergences between the data and the market, maybe the latest leg upin the rally is the GS bonuses getting splashed about.

kittydashwood

19-11-2006, 11:07 PM

SIEB touches 52 week high.
8 $ anyone? This could be breaking out short interest is over 6% might fuel a rally to 5.15 in the short term.
This is small and illiquid but five times average volume traded on friday and only 2% is held by institutional investors.

Muriel is getting on and the stock may suffer if the founder died but the WFN is a great earner and I do believe Muriel who had such a fight to get a seat on the NYSE back in 1967 will get the last laugh.

kittydashwood

22-11-2006, 08:23 AM

SIEB is indeed breaking out this morning as are other asset managers and brokers.
GROW IAAC and SCHW all up sharply today. Institutions are piling into GROW from the trading it seems they have agreed the post split price will be in the 22.50-25.50 range.
Volitility is dropping so this move may be over till Jan 2007.

SIEB is seriously being collected, look at the chart and check how the 4.10 high was taken out on the pullback day for the XLF. Muriel owns 66% will SCHW buy her out with the masses of cash they got from flicking trust accounts to the BAC or will other online brokers start sniffing around.
From the level two seems Muriel is selling at 5.10 but a 30% premium on this isn't out of the question. If this is the play 6.25 could be a target.

kittydashwood

22-11-2006, 01:12 PM

FromMF.

In the Ultra Wealthy, Bank of America Trusts

By Tom Taulli
November 21, 2006

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is going up-market, shelling out $3.3 billion for U.S. Trust, a venerable firm that focuses on wealthy clients. As a division of Charles Schwab (Nasdaq: SCHW), U.S. Trust gained little traction, but as part of the Bank of America powerhouse, things are likely to improve.

U.S. Trust got its start in 1853, which was certainly good timing, as the country was embarking on the Industrial Revolution. Over time, the company went on to manage the trusts of wealthy clients such as United States Steel and International Paper. And certainly U.S. Trust has been a bedrock of stability -- withstanding inflation, depressions, stock market crashes, and world wars.

However, by the late 1990s, the firm realized that times were changing. With the tech boom came a new generation of multimillionaires who were comfortable with more cutting-edge approaches.

Thus, at the top of the bull market (May 2000), Schwab purchased U.S. Trust for about $2.9 billion. With Schwab's tech savvy -- and dot-com client base -- there was renewed hope for growth at U.S. Trust.

But, of course, this never materialized. In fact, as Schwab's core business faltered, it didn't have the resources to improve U.S. Trust and compete effectively against tough players like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS).

Now, as part of Bank of America, there should be improved synergies. Actually, the company is already a major player in private banking, with about $167 billion under management. And with the deal, Bank of America will become the largest private bank in the U.S.

Bank of America will also get a larger chunk of the ultra-wealthy category -- those clients with at least $25 million in assets -- since U.S. Trust has 724 such clients.

Interestingly enough, Bank of America's private bank division has standout operating margins of 44%, which compares to U.S. Trust's 23% margins. Thus, it looks like Bank of America can realize cost synergies to boost margins.

It's no surprise that Bank of America thinks the deal can be accretive by $0.01 per share in 2008. And for a company of its size, this is definitely significant. After all, the company's deposit base is about 9%, which is close to the legal limit of 10% for the U.S. (according to federal regulations).

In other words, Bank of America needs to move into non-bank segments to find growth, and the U.S. Trust acquisition is a good choice in terms of cost and product synergies.

kittydashwood

25-11-2006, 05:58 AM

(Check out that SIEB, ICE has a nice run today on a crude bounce, ISE looking tasty, MBLX a buy or bale? what the f do Praetorian Capital have in the water cooler?, I want some, NWACQ complex pump and dump or recovery?Yup)

1. Major Statistical Errors in Economics

Minyanville has learned that statistical errors in economics reporting are actually far more common than one might think, especially before the computer age.
England's Office for National Statistics discovered a major statistical error in reporting inflation yesterday.
The error reduced overall inflation from 3.4% to 2.2%, quite a haircut, and it will likely reduce the chances the Bank of England will raise rates at its next meeting.
It turns out, however, that major statistical errors in economics have occurred quite frequently over the years.
Below are some Major Statistical Errors in Economics throughout history Minyanville has uncovered:
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11661

On a lighter note Ricky Ponting could be bald by Christmas.

kittydashwood

30-11-2006, 10:29 AM

NYT finished @ 24.76 up+1.73 could be a recovery trade if we can close above 25 or get some good volumes in thehigh 24's
DISCL HOLDING since 23

UPDATE: New York Times Soars On Reported Greenberg Stake
Dow Jones Newswires - November 29, 2006 3:46 PM
By Shira Ovide

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of New York Times Co. (NYT) rose 8.3% Wednesday after reports former American International Group Inc. (AIG) Chief Executive Hank Greenberg has bought a stake in the newspaper publisher with an eye toward a possible takeover offer.

The New York Post reported in Wednesday's edition that Greenberg has been buying "hundreds of thousands" of New York Times shares. Later Wednesday, CNBC reported Greenberg has approached investment bankers to help put together an offer to buy the company.

A spokesman for Greenberg declined to comment.

Shares of New York Times traded recently at $24.93, up $1.90. Volume was heavy, at 5.9 million shares compared with the daily average of 1.4 million. The shares had climbed as much as 9.2% on the day. The New York Times stock price had declined about 40% in the last two years.

A potential takeover of the New York Times would face enormous obstacles. The company has dual classes of stock, which concentrate power with descendants of Adolph S. Ochs, who bought the New York Times in 1896. His heirs include current company chairman and New York Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger Jr.

"The Ochs-Sulzberger family has no intention of changing the dual-class structure," New York Times spokeswoman Catherine Mathis said Wednesday.

The family trusts hold about 19% of New York Times' Class A shares and about 90% of the Class B shares.

Greenberg's reported New York Times investment comes as company management is under pressure from an unhappy institutional investor. Morgan Stanley Investment Management has asked the New York Times to eliminate the two classes of stock, and make changes to its board.

But Ed Atorino, an analyst at research firm Benchmark Co., said the New York Times can squelch unwanted changes in the company's structure. "The probability of anyone putting pressure is slim to none" because of the family control of the company.

Of course, Greenberg could be buying New York Times shares because he thinks it is an undervalued company. If so, he joins other prominent figure with interests in media companies that have seen shareholder value wither in recent years.

Jack Welch, the longtime head of General Electric Co. (GE), and other investors have sought to buy the Boston Globe newspaper from the New York Times, and two California billionaires are interested in Tribune Co. (TRB) or its Los Angeles Times newspaper. Greenberg himself reportedly has considered an offer to buy Tribune and Dow Jones & Co. (DJ), publisher of The Wall Street Journal and this newswire.

- By Shira Ovide, Dow Jones Newswires

kittydashwood

03-12-2006, 09:09 PM

Looks like the NYT action was a short squezze.
Here's an interesting site which details fund portfolios and you can suggest your own.
The site also has an alog which generates a potential addition for your portfolio.
http://www.stockpickr.com/

Great article from Minyanville this week some sound comments if you ask me.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11708

Minyanville Staff
Dec 02, 2006 9:59 am

Comments from Jeff Saut, Chief Market Strategist for Raymond James:
The past few months have seen some extraordinary stock market activity, but I am definitely not a conspiracy theorist.
Rally in stocks is due to in large part to the "silent crash" in gasoline prices,
SPX has not had a 2% down day since May 19, 2003, a six-standard deviation event,
The rally has caused participants to take on more risk.
When investor risk appetites increase, asset prices increase.
Declines in residential fixed investment as a percentage of GDP has foretold every recession and we are now breaking down from unheard of levels,
Is this time for real estate different? Don't know.
Real estate has historically been an effect and not a cause.
Has real estate become so entwined in the economic fabric of this country that it is now a cause and not an effect?
We'll probably not know for sure for another year.
Puzzled about how we can eat at the same table and all disagree about what is being served.
By that, I mean, anybody who has read Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" must admit that by any... any measure used by Ben Graham, U.S. stocks are optimistically priced and not cheap.
That doesn't;t mean they can't get more optimistically priced. But I am cautious right here,
However, it is difficult to break the equity markets down in December.
Not impossible, just rare.
So my themes for investing:
- China: Within 10 years hundreds of millions of people will join the global marketplace
- But avoid things that China sells.
- Buy things China needs.
- Leaning toward large cap growth in U.S. stocks.
- Water.
- GPS
- Teleconferencing/Videoconferencing
- Post Secondary Education. Ford buyout as an example. Those folks need to be retrained,
- Financial Services
- RFID The medium that is the best antenna for RFID products is silver.
Above all, manage the risk.

Panel Discussion One
Phil Erlanger: Short intensity has actually been decreasing the past few months. I'm short-term bullish, but believe we remain in a secular bear market, which may reassert itself next year.

Jeff Bernstein, Keel Capital: Can't remember any period since the industrial revolution where you can have two massive economies the size of China and India with their growth rate that is not positive for global profit growth.

Also, our feedback so far suggests this is going to be a surprisingly good retail season, especially in the hard lines and personal consumer electronics,

Jeff Macke: When you see poor stocks do well when they shouldn't, due to private equity possibilities, or for whatever reason, you remove a layer of balance from the market where it is impossible to be short certain stocks. That imbalance will come home to roost eventually, and that worries me for 2007.

Stephanie Pomboy: The equity market has done a better job pricing in risk than the credit market, The credit market is where things have gotten out of control in my view. From a macro standpoint, I would look for a serious widening in credit spreads.

Greg Weldon: Consensus and reality is very far apart in my view. There are many ways for things to play out, whether it is debt deflation or hyperinflation,but these outcomes are so far removed from the consensus that the disconnect is disturbing and frightening.

Panel One Q&A:
David Keel: This bout of profit growth has been not the result of leveraged growth, but a de-levering. So where is the bear argument there? I don't see it.

Jeff Macke: If I'm going to survive, the best way to do that is to not worry about what happens to credit spreads next year, but figure out

kittydashwood

06-12-2006, 08:26 AM

Counter trend tuesday!!!

Great returns for all of you buying what I buy.
AOB GROW IAAC SIEB CH ICE MTW

Time for some profit taking before the crowd?

New positions in GEF and CMP starting to look ok.
Now look at PAC and SAN two South American stocks sold down. Good entry points coming.

EWZ breaks out

kittydashwood

07-12-2006, 06:46 PM

Schaeffer on Charts: Six Important Index Relative-Strength Charts
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and Major Exchange-Traded Funds
By Bernie Schaeffer
12/6/2006 4:35 PM ET
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/plus/bgscommentary.aspx?click=home&ID=17831

To gain a necessary sense of perspective when honing your portfolio, a good technical indicator to follow is relative strength, which is simply a gauge of a sector or stock's price action as compared with another instrument. The S&P 500 Index (SPX - 1,414.26) is frequently utilized as a benchmark in these studies, as it typifies overall broad-market momentum. An index's or stock's relative strength as compared to the SPX can shed new light on its performance, highlighting whether it is a leader or a laggard in the market. For more information on relative strength, I refer you to this article from our Education section.

Tech Stocks:

While this may come as a slight surprise, tech stocks have shown an amazingly flat performance during the past three years. In fact, if you take 1999-2001 out of the equation, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP - 2,449.4) has traded in basic lock-step with the SPX for 12 years, going back to early 1994.

Monthly relative strength, the Nasdaq Composite versus the S&P 500 Index, since January 1992

Housing:

Centex (CTX: View sentiment for CTXsentiment, chart, options), which I view as a decent proxy for the housing sector overall, saw its monthly relative-strength measure fall off a cliff in early 2006. During the past few months, however, this indicator has stabilized above its rising 80-month moving average.

Monthly relative strength, Centex versus the S&P 500 Index, since June 1999 with 80-month moving average

Utilities:

The Dow Jones Utility Average (UTIL - 459.28) was unmistakably strong in 2004 and 2005 but is in the midst of a sideways consolidation. I see this going one of two ways; either the group is primed for a breakout in the near future above the 65 level or it will pull back to support at its colliding 80-month and 160-month trendlines before its next surge higher.

Monthly relative strength, the Dow Jones Utility Average versus the S&P 500 Index, since January 1995 with 80-month and 160-month moving averages

Airlines:

The beleaguered airline sector has lagged the broad market since 1998. The AMEX Airline Index's (XAL - 59.17) recent show of strength has not spurred much of a bounce on a relative-strength basis. The group's price action, as compared to the SPX, remains down in the dumps.

Monthly relative strength, the AMEX Airline Index versus the S&P 500 Index, since September 1999

Commodities:

Crude oil and gold futures have enjoyed many months of technical strength and historically lofty levels. But a look at the monthly relative strength of the CRB Commodity Index (CR/Y - 316.43) is way less impressive than other, more conventional views of the commodities market. Relative strength has been pretty stagnant since early 2003 and has dropped precipitously during the past few months.

Monthly relative strength, the CRB Commodity Index versus the S&P 500 Index, since January 1992 with 80-month and 160-month moving averages

Gold:

Gold is another group that is a tough read at this juncture. A long-term sideways pattern resolved itself to the upside in mid-2005. Currently, the yellow metal's monthly relative-strength measure is holding at its 160-month trendline and possibly ready to bounce. A break below this threshold could drop the measure to its rising 80-month moving average.

kittydashwood

11-12-2006, 08:59 AM

Close stops needed as we move into Christmas I feel...

Man arrested in alleged Illinois terrorism plot
Fri Dec 8, 2006 4:27pm ET140

CHICAGO (Reuters) - A U.S. man who wanted to carry out a "violent jihad" was arrested after he obtained a gun and four hand grenades from a government informant to attack an Illinois shopping mall, the FBI said on Friday.

Derrick Shareef, 22, of Rockford, Illinois, was under surveillance the entire time and never posed a threat to public safety, the agency said in a statement.

The FBI-led Chicago Joint Terrorism Task Force said Shareef, born in the United States and a Muslim convert, was charged with one count of attempting to damage or destroy a building by fire or explosion and one count of attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction.

An affidavit released by the FBI said Shareef, also known as Talib Abu Salam Ibn Shareef, became acquainted with the informant in September this year and told him he wanted to kill a judge, among other crimes.

He said he "wanted to commit acts of violent jihad against targets in the United States as well as commit crimes in order to obtain funds to further his goals of violent jihad," the affidavit said.

In a videotape made right before he planned to put hand grenades in garbage cans at a shopping mall, he said he might be giving his last will and testament, the document said.

"I am from America and this tape is to let you guys know, who believe in Allah, to let the enemies of Islam know, and to let the Muslims alike know that the time for jihad is now ... be strong, oh Mujahideen ... May Allah protect me on this mission we conduct," he said, according to the affidavit.

The FBI said he agreed to give the informant his stereo speakers in exchange for the gun and four grenades, which he did not know had been deactivated. He was arrested after the transaction this week.

"While these are very serious charges, at no time was the public in any imminent peril as a result of the defendant's activities," said Patrick Fitzgerald, U.S attorney in Chicago.

The intended target was the CherryVale Shopping Mall, near the junction of Interstate 90 and Interstate 39 on the east side of Rockford. The mall has about 130 retail stores and is owned by CBL & Associates Properties, Inc., of Chattanooga, Tennessee.

kittydashwood

18-12-2006, 03:57 PM

There are technical signals suggesting the stock indices are due for corrective pullbacks soon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) overlaid on the weekly charts for the S&P 500 futures and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows readings that are into technically overbought territory (above 70.00). An examination of recent price history does show that when RSI does move above 70.00 on the weekly charts for these indices, they do experience, at the least, a significant downside price "correction" shortly thereafter. However with the size of the bonuses flying about at Goldman S these days (average bonus 636 thousand, highest 98 million) we could be in for a right royal spend up on santa, followed by a nasty hangover in the new year.

The future is decidely unclear as large elephants like foreign governments are actively chasing the SPX up to cover currency losses. Easy ease equilibrium or dangerous rubber band?

kittydashwood

19-12-2006, 05:36 AM

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=11798

Interesting charts with this article paint a grim picture for the longer range.

Dec 18, 2006 11:00 am

The Elephant Is In The Room

Bennet Sedacca
Dec 18, 2006 11:00 am

You are probably asking yourself if I had too much eggnog when I made this headline. But, seriously, the ‘elephant in the room’ is Wall Street parlance for who the big player is in the markets.
There are actually two elephants in the room at this time, private equity firms like KKR and Blackstone and the truly large elephant, foreign central banks. I am neither a bear nor a bull, but rather the one that has to review data provided to my firm in the marketplace and decide if the market is high risk or low risk. I had felt that the stock market was extremely high risk in 1999 but was not proven correct until 2000. That was a painful time as people told me ‘I didn’t get the new paradigm,’ and that it was ‘different this time.’ I remained steadfastly negative until July 2002 and turned bullish in March 2003. My firm has been invested in stocks the whole way, but has now reduced exposure (a bit early, like 1999) as the market again feels high risk to me. And once again I am hearing ‘it is different this time’ from many bulls.
Maybe they are correct and I will under perform my peers in the months ahead, but as the manager of other people’s hard-earned money, I must respect what I see in the marketplace.

What do I see? I see the United States stuck in a seemingly un-winnable war in Iraq (not a political statement, just an observation) and a monstrous trade deficit with much of the world. I also see the chasm between the wealthy and the poor widening. For example, the Wall Street Journal just published a report that the average CEO is paid 350 times the amount their average worker earns. I also see the chasm between reality (economic statistics) and perception (stock prices) widening. Why are they widening? Very simply, the elephant in the room is Foreign Central Bankers. See the chart below. It shows the trend of other countries buying US securities over the past 15 years or so. If that isn’t a defined uptrend I don’t know what is.

Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities Since 1990 in Billions of Dollars Per Month

There is no question why they are buying in my opinion. The US creates a huge deficit with them and they simply take the proceeds and re-circulate them back into US securities. The key now is that they are buying around $1 trillion worth of US securities per year, as they crank up the printing presses of currency just as the US does. After all, the world is awash in debt at every level, and the US needs higher asset prices to sustain it. But see the chart below. At first, the bankers were buying out Treasuries. Then they started buying US equities and their buying peaked just as US markets peaked in 2000. Note that their trailing 12 month purchases are now at the same level as in 2000. They also missed the big move in stocks beginning in 2003 as their 12 month trailing purchases bottomed just as the US market bottomed. Hardly the best market timers, no?

Of even more importance is that they have now switched from buying US Treasuries to more risky asset classes, notably corporate bonds. In fact, over the past two months they have purchased no Treasury notes, but tons of equities and corporates. No wonder there seems to be an almost ‘unnatural’ bid to the market. And corporate bond spreads along with agency securities remain stubbornly tight. Basically, the Central Bankers are ‘crowding out’ the private sector and making jobs for prudent asset managers quite difficult. It almost seems like they want us to conform to their practices. It has also made many investors emboldened as if they can’t lose money. In the Greenspan era they called it the ‘moral hazard card’ or ‘Greenspan put.’ Now, under Chairman Bernanke, it seems like there is a ‘Central Bank put’ where it doesn’t matter if you overpay for something because the elephant in the room will be there to bail you ou

kittydashwood

09-03-2007, 02:32 PM

Transcript: George Soros interview

Published: March 7 2007 16:55 | Last updated: March 7 2007 16:55

Chrystia Freeland, FT US Managing Editor and FT reporter James Politi, interviewed George Soros in New York on March 6. This is an edited transcript of the interview.

FT: Thank you for joining us, Mr Soros.

GS: Pleasure.

FT: We’re speaking at a moment of a lot of turbulence in the markets. What’s your explanation for what’s happening?

GS: I think there are several factors but, very important, is the carry trade, the fact that the yen is basically interest free and a lot of money is coming from borrowing and a lot of Japanese money going abroad. And the yen was weakening so a lot of people got into that trade and there’s a little bit of a shake-up going on.

FT: With the appreciation of the yen?

GS: That’s right. I mean the appreciation of the yen shows that there is a shake-out. Now, behind it you have got the slowdown in the US economy, the housing situation where you haven’t yet seen the total effect of the slowdown. It’s still halfway through. So will that actually result in a significant slowdown in consumer spending? That is yet to be seen because you have had mortgage equity withdrawals of nearly $900bn a year. Now it has fallen to $300bn and it basically will disappear. And that will affect consumer spending.

Now, as the US slows down, the emerging markets are still going very strong, China and India, so you will actually go back to a more balanced economy with more growth abroad and correcting the deficit. But that will see less liquidity in the market because it’s really the trading balance creating the same trillion dollars of Chinese reserves and similar amounts in other countries. That has actually fed this global liquidity splurge.

FT: What impact will that drawing up of liquidity have?

GS: It will have an effect on the market and I don’t think that we are in any way nearer a crash. But it’s a warning crack.

FT: What sort of an impact do you think the emerging markets have had on the events of the past week? Some people have attributed the beginnings of people’s worries to a sharp drop in Shanghai.

GS: Well, it did start in China and the Chinese market was rising at an unsustainable rate and the authorities did want to slow it down. But, on the other hand, they don’t want it to fall out of bed either so I think that you’ve had that sort of initial impulse and I think the Chinese market will be kept on an even keel, certainly until after the Olympics.

FT: Another area where some people have felt that we might be reaching some sort of a bubble is in private equity where we’ve seen one record after another broken. What do you think is happening there?

GS: Both hedge funds and private equity funds play a much more important role in the market and they introduce leverage. And that leverage is based then on the cheapest source of financing, which is currently in Japan, so that is the liquidity bubble we are talking about.

FT: So, if we see further appreciation of the yen, what kind of impact will that have?

GS: Obviously it would lead to an unwinding but I don’t think it’s going to get out of hand right now.

FT: Another area where you’ve been very active is American politics and you came out as an early supporter of Barack Obama. Why did you decide to back him?

GS: I think that he brings a fresh voice into the political arena. He’s a sort of transformational figure that could really help America leave behind and correct the errors that the Bush Administration has made. So I think he would be a terrific candidate but it doesn’t mean that Hillary wouldn’t make a very good president. So my support of Barack Obama is in no way in opposition to Hillary. I would be very happy with her as president as well.

FT: But it does imply that you think that he would be better than she would be.

GS: I think he would bring a fresher voice and I think that his entry is already improving the presidential debate, and I think that, whatever the outcome, it will strengthen the

skinny

09-03-2007, 08:12 PM

Well I liked most of that except for calling Russian policies
"adventurous". That's a new euphism for the f word.

kittydashwood

21-03-2007, 09:03 AM

FROM MINYANVILLE
"ALL CARRIED OUT"

Mr Practical
Mar 20, 2007 2:44 pm

The yen carry trade. A fancy name for something so simple: good old fashioned government manipulation. If you notice, every slip in stocks around the world is accompanied by strength in the yen. We have now reached the point where every up-tick in stock prices is due to more debt and every down tick is due to debt reduction. Stock prices don’t go up unless someone can borrow money.

And the ultimate form of these shenanigans are LBOs. The deals that have been struck are so ridiculous I would be laughing if they were not so sad. For every LBO that is done there are twenty rumors. This is because there is no value, only greed. Take Blackstone’s purchase of EOP. Sam Zell, not a stupid man, was all too happy to sell his properties at the price. The buyers were all too happy to use other people’s money to buy them. Never mind the 5% cap rate on the deal (why not be prudent and just buy T-bills?). Never mind the ten fold leverage. Never mind the fact that a week after the deal was completed Blackstone had already sold half the properties out (the best ones of course) because the deal had way too much risk. Never mind they will earn the fees however for a long time to come.

I sit here in Japan long the yen when the world is short it. What does it say when hedge funds borrow in yen and use the “money” to buy junk bonds in the U.S.? It says they have to completely ignore the fact that they have currency risk: if the yen rises they are toast. The bank in Japan where I have deposits doesn’t know what to do with me. No one in their right mind in Japan keeps deposits there for they don’t pay interest. 75% of all the people who are naturally long the yen (Japanese consumers) can’t stand it: they all put their deposits in Australia and New Zealand and take that currency risk.

So I sit and wait. The 4.5% interest I give up by having my deposits in yen I believe will make me 40% when the yen rallies against other currencies. I don’t think I will have to wait several years.

Which brings me to my final point. The massive imbalances and the massive debt will eventually cause deflation. The facts are clear. Those who understand this are still invested, preferring to believe that the eventuality is not around the corner. But that is not logical: if the conditions exist for future deflation, no one knows where the corner is. We could be turning around it right now. The mortgage mess in the U.S. is a prime example. We hear from the pundits that it is contained in its own little box. Again illogical. There is no box, it is all connected.

I prefer to lose a little time value on my “money” rather than be carried out with everyone else.

So with great patience earned over 90 years, I wait.

Best Regards,
Mr. Practical

kittydashwood

23-03-2007, 11:02 AM

MIAMI (Reuters) - The Atlantic hurricane season will be exceptionally active this year, according to a British forecasting group, raising the possibility that killer storms like Hurricane Katrina could again threaten the United States.

London-based forecaster Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday said the six-month season, which begins on June 1, was expected to bring 17 tropical storms, of which nine will strengthen into hurricanes with winds of at least 74 miles per hour.

Four of those are expected to become more destructive "intense" hurricanes, TSR said.

The United States emerged unscathed from the 2006 season after it spawned a below-average nine storms, of which five became hurricanes. Experts had universally -- and erroneously -- predicted 2006 would be a busy year for Atlantic storms.

None of the hurricanes hit the United States, bringing welcome relief to beleaguered residents of the U.S. Gulf Coast, where Katrina killed 1,500 people, swamped New Orleans and caused about $80 billion in damage the year before.

But TSR said current and projected climate signals indicate that Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity will be 75 percent above the 1950-2006 average in 2007.

TSR had predicted in December that Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity would be just 60 percent above average this year. It raised the projected activity level because of the sudden dissipation in February of last year's El Nino weather phenomenon.

An unusual warming of the eastern Pacific waters, El Nino events tend to suppress Atlantic storm activity.

Other experts, including hurricane forecast pioneer Dr. William Gray and his team at Colorado State University, have also warned that the 2007 hurricane season is likely to be busier-than-average.

The relative calm of last year's hurricane season, which forecasters had mistakenly predicted would be busy, came on the heels of a record 28 storms and 15 hurricanes in 2005 and only a slightly less furious season in 2004.

kittydashwood

04-05-2007, 01:50 PM

Good article from the ville.
Bear suits at the ready( with horns of course).

The Dow's Money Illusion
Scott Reamer
May 03, 2007 1:14 pm

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=12742

The 2000 top was a top in the real SPX and Dow. The top in the Dow at present is a different story entirely.

Two things to note on the AAII bulls and bears statistics, which analysts have noted suggest public investors are extremely bearish relative to the more recent history of this sentiment poll.

First, in March 2000, bears spiked to 50 for the first time since October 1992 – eight long years in which the S&P 500 saw a 420% increase and the NDX advanced by 675% and both saw but one meaningful correction (1998). March 2000 of course was coincident with the price high in the SPX and NDX (the Dow peaked in January 2000). Imagine the headlines from that day if you will: “After the S&P 500 more than triples, investors are still bearish” or “Investors as bearish as they were at the start of the great 1990s bull market!”, etc. Based on the statistics surrounding this sentiment gauge up until then, it would have been a major buy signal. Precisely at the top.

Second, the public was, of course, involved and bullish up to their eyeballs at the 2000 top. But the 2000 top was a top in the real SPX and Dow. The top in the Dow at present is a different story entirely.

The new all-time highs in the Dow now being registered are a form of money illusion – the denominator has changed, in this case the value of the USD. Why? Because of massive, record credit growth over the last seven years. In real money (gold), in commodity terms (CRB), and heck even in other fiat currency terms (Euro, Swiss franc), the DOW is nowhere near its 2000 peak. The Dow priced in gold after all is down 56% from its all time peak in 1999; the S&P 500 priced in CRB index terms is down 37%. Heck, the DOW priced in Swiss franc and Euro terms is down 21% and 26% respectively from its 2000 peak. And of course the NDX is down much more in real terms against almost anything you care to price it in.

Thus, the real price of stocks is still far below the nominal peak in prices achieved in 2000 when the public was gaga for stocks. Why is this important in looking at the context surrounding the AAII sentiment stats?

As all students of market history know, no two secular (hell, no two cyclical) tops are made quite like those that came before it – particularly like those that came immediately before it: each has its own particular drivers – macroeconomic, microeconomic, sentiment, participation, etc. To look for the same public participation in stocks now is to (1) miss the fact that the US is not making real price highs and thus the conditions are materially different and (2) that wherever the next top forms, it will almost certainly not be driven by the same dynamics (massive public participation) as the one that generated the real inflation adjusted (as opposed to the CPI adjusted) peak in 1999/2000. Rear view mirror investing is a form of illusion as well.

Hedge funds now make up about 50% of trading volume on the NYSE and in the corporate bond market on any given day. And they can be levered anywhere from two to 10 times their asset base. Whereas mutual funds can theoretically get 100% invested (and achieved close – 96/97% - in 2000 and now), hedge funds can get 200%, 300%, 1000% invested depending on the securities they trade and their risk appetites. The 19/21 days up in the Dow record recently set wasn’t a function of your no-good neighbor trading ETFs – it’s a function of hedge funds accessing a seemingly endless credit pool, driven by the free call option of 2%/20% economics, and fully embracing the type of moral hazard financial economics that the Fed, the BOJ, the PBOC, and the BOE have made public policy for the past five years.

If condo speculation on South Beach heats up again in three or four years, the probabilities that it will be the same set of folks who are getting burned right now are close to zero. If another several trill