PDA

View Full Version : Mc Millan Shakespeare.. (MMS)



robbo
28-10-2005, 05:58 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Bit of a sleeper at present...

Excellent Figures....Profit Margins, Eps Growth, ROE growth, Adjsusted Profit Growth, Lowish PE/PEG, Masssive Increases in Sales Revenues....,

Vaguest of rummours they could be a target for Talent 2 to swallow, as they are into Salary Packaging, and the largely Insto Share Holder base is getting a little restless with relative lack of liquidity ?????

Personally, I rate MMS very highly....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
29-10-2005, 11:05 AM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Hi guys,

Thought I better start to fill in the gaps and start to explain why I like some of these securities:

Firstly will start with what Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) seems to be all about :


McMillan Shakespeare Limited (MMS) listed on the ASX in March 2004. The company was established to aquire MSA, a business solutions provider in the salary packaging administartion industry. MSA also offers vehicle fleet management and consulting services

Salary Packaging Administration:

Provision of salary packaging administration services, including remuneration policy design, salary packaging benefit administration and processing, motor vehicle lease management, taxation recording and related services

Fleet Solutions.

Provision of motor vehicle fleet management and consulting services including procurement of motor vehicles, finance and insurance and fuel card and service maintenance programs.

>> Yeah righto Robbo, .... but so I hear you all say: " C'mon Robbo, what about the numbers, just give us the current Bottom Line will ya mate....?"

You asked for it: so ... Here it is then....

EPS growth from previous year moved up massive 620% to 7.55 cps.

Return on Capital (ROE) moved from: 5 % to: 32.5%

Dividentd Yield is 2.4 cps.

PE is industry average at 19

PEG is low at .19

Adjusted EBITA Profit moved UP from: $987, 200 to: $7, 915,000

Share Price has gained relatively modest 28% plus in last 12 months....

Market Cap is currently approx: $127 million.

Share Price is now around $1.25

More soon....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
07-11-2005, 12:02 PM
MMS Mc Millan Shakespeare

Hearing good things regarding MMS's Pipeline and corporate postive activity, and consequently am quietly and steadilly "loading up" on MMS shares as we speak ......

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
16-11-2005, 08:14 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Hi Guys,

Seems that MMS 'may' - be ready to be about to trend up ....

Mc Millan was up 3.1% on sig increased Volume today.....[:p]

Refer to my above posts on this Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) thread, if interested in MMS .

>>> Personally do rate Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) Very highly.:)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

OneUp
24-11-2005, 07:28 PM
It means no clients of ASB have bought shares in that company before and they haven't loaded the code into their system. This has happened 3 or 4 times to me. The only solution is to phone them and ask them to load it.

robbo
27-11-2005, 02:38 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Hi absoluteadvance,

Been flying around, at some AGMs interstate, in Melbourne.... AND doing some Site Visits and Interviews with various organizations, Co's and Directors etc .....

Re: Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) absoluteadvance, I will probably re-iterate my very First Opening Post on this MMS thread on 28/10/05 -- which interestingly was almost 1 month to the day ago!:This post is really still ... IMO... highly relevant.... but I also now absolutadvance -- added some other tit-bits ......

"Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

MMS is a Bit of a sleeper at present...

Excellent Figures.... Profit Margins, EPS Growth, ROE growth, Adjusted Profit Growth, Lowish PE/PEG, Masssive Increases in Sales Revenues....,

- Vaguest of rummours they could be a target for Talent 2 to swallow, as they are into Salary Packaging, and the largely Insto
Share Holder base is getting a little restless with relative lack of liquidity ?????

Personally, I rate MMS very highly...."

So absoluteadvance .... what I was actually gently trying to suggest, is that folk here at Share Trader.com (ASX Division) -- might then have wanted to potentially consider; to start squirilleing away MMS share scrip. Certainly that was what...... : "yours truly's ..... course of activity and action was.... at and before that point (28/10/05) " ...... -- re MMS .....[:p]:)

My sources re some: T/Over activity for MMS .. as well as ...( more importantly IMO -- )-- ... The Fundamentals on the intrinsic Balance Sheet ..... are still favouring this outcome -- say: 7/10 -- ??

- Possible small Problemo for MMS absoluteadvance .... however with MMS -- at the moment absoluteadvance, IMO - as you can see, is Lack of Current available Liquidity .... on the Tight Share register.

- This may be partially solved in the short-medium term future--?? - from what I can mainly # ascertain.-- ?? --

Robbo's Motto: “ Buy quality when ...... everyone else is selling , and ..... hold until everyone else is buying.
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….” :)

** One final point. IMO. there is another Listed Co. starting with the letter "G" -- that I have also begun a thread on, and which the Real Value and Growth Clues... IMO.... are stated in the Announcement I posted from that Co.

- Depth on this Stock is Good -- ( but not, IMO-- for long) -- before real bargain price remains .....

This Co. alluded to above, has real growth in share price Prospects... and might even be another Biggie Anouncement in Pipeline --?? -- in my assesement, real Legs in this co. in up to doubling its share price -- actually 135% increase is my guess, in next 4-5 months with Plenty of Safety ..... again only IMO .... ;);)
J. Paul Getty’

Disclaimer:
Views expressed above, cannot be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. Comments expressed here; are on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Views are only the author’s personal, subjective whimsical thoughts, sometimes experiences, and intuitions. Obviously, as with all opinions, they are open to discussion and refutation, as well as other interpretations and review on the share under consideration. In that light, for any investment decision, always do your own research, seek independent financial advice and independent counsel you can trust at all times. Therefore, please take these opinions and sentiments only in this context.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
07-02-2006, 04:11 PM
Mc Millan (MMS)

...........after MMS has been asleep-- [|)][|)] for a few months.

MMS looks like it is a stirring up now.... :)

Bigger Volume today of approx 600, 000K and up 8.7%...

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

robbo
17-02-2006, 06:30 PM
Mc Millan Shkespeare (MMS)

The (MMS) Shakespearean Share drama and play... is not just a comedy of errors after all, ....but is turning out to be....ornot to be....

Alls Well That Ends Well.....


....and quite a nice Midsummer Nights Crownie Dreammmmmm.....
[:I][:o)][:I]

MMS-- Moving along nicely,and I feel that this week could be the one where we see the MMS earnings Reports, so ought to be interesting.....

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

robbo
20-02-2006, 05:04 PM
Mc millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Hi All Sharetrader theatre buffs,"culture vultures" -- and Shakespeare fans,

Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)...

Bubbling along nicely again today...

MMS is up 3.5% today.

Kindest Regards,

robbo:)

robbo
01-03-2006, 05:41 PM
Mc Millan shakespeare (MMS)

Another All Time high today.... for Shakespeare (MMS) :)[:p]

Real nice Shakespearean narrative on this one...

Up about 43 + % [:p]since start of the year on excellent financials and thier recent Calendar Year (DEC 2005) interim was really excellent imo.:)

Do Hope you all had some,

Regards,

robbo:)

corky
15-03-2006, 05:23 PM
Well I wasn't Robbo but that has since been corrected. Some bad experiences with them in their early operations had put me off but hey, let bygones be gone by when it comes to profit eh?

A couple of large trades today (crossings?) and a nibble at $3.

Any news on that liquidity enabler?

Cheers
Corky

robbo
15-03-2006, 06:50 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare.(MMS)

This company (MMS)--imo-- from the last period on period on period--

(ie: This recent (MMS) Interim Financial Set of Resuolts, and previous last (MMS) F/Year Result, and previous Interim Financial results before that--04/05--)

Have...... at least-- :)-- in my view, been ....., imo, one of the better (top 5% in my judgement??)--adjusted profits and Return on Capital, and increasing dividnednd apying history and Profit Margin increasing overall pictures......--- as a recent track record----(for the past 3 Reported ASX periods) of the small-mid industrial (and other sectors for that matter)--Market Caps currently on the ASX .

But as discussed Liquidity currently hinders this share (MMS) from imo realizing some of its share price potential.

-Corky I do not ahve direct "inside" on whether that is being addressed.

But I do feel that mgt wold be cognizant of this phenomeneon....

Also looking at some of the Seasoned veterans on the MMS Board, my surmise, is that when the right opportunity for a Acquision comes about, combined and/or with a Stock Split, then this will in the fullness of time.....(which I sense..... is not years .....but less than 18 months, and even less than 12 mths at a guestimate --purely my own instinct and intuition and wtching tea leaves over a long time....LOL--- ;):)

Top Class Value, imo, and from ovservations aover the years, has a terrible habit ......of eventually being seen, noticed and eventually acknowledged and realized....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)




quote:Originally posted by corky

Well I wasn't Robbo but that has since been corrected. Some bad experiences with them in their early operations had put me off but hey, let bygones be gone by when it comes to profit eh?

A couple of large trades today (crossings?) and a nibble at $3.

Any news on that liquidity enabler?

Cheers
Corky

robbo
04-05-2006, 01:22 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) :)

The Pub's Bard (MMS) is up a rather very okay 14% Today-- [:p]

Given the doldrums on the Bourse (ASX) am rather Happy with this theatrical performance!

STILL very ....very.... undervalued Still.... imo though...

Kindest Regards,

robbo:)

corky
29-05-2006, 07:24 PM
Not sure what's going on in the market - someone wanted some MMS at 3.50 on the close and now there's no more for sale. And bizarrely exactly the same happened to SAI, one of my other holdings. No doubt MMS will retreat tomorrow but as with SAI there are 'not many sellers'.

Corky

Lizard
29-05-2006, 08:01 PM
Pretty much same thing happened on TWO - nearly all the sellers disappeared then volume went through 20% higher on the close. Have no idea what that was about...

corky
29-05-2006, 08:19 PM
That really is bizarre - are there any more examples? Mind you, Robbo has previously suggested an MMS/TWO tie-up. Now surely such an announcement would generate a bit of trading scrutiny. But there's probably some less exciting explanation.

Corky

robbo
29-05-2006, 09:14 PM
MMS Mc Millan Shakespeare.

HI Corky,

The les exciting bit is really boring...

Anyway here it is ....

Market still has overlooked the Facts that Mc Millan Shakespeare, (MMS) , has in fat got the Numbers and Performance on the board:

Namely:

MMS statistics are: 107% increase in adjusted year on year profits, the rising profit margins, to what is now > 27% (pre tax), the >70% increase on Return on Equity increase from the previous year to a ROE of 42%, the Revenue/Sales Growth of >51%, the earnings per share gwth of >208%, & the 200% increase in dividned paid to shareholders of MMS this year.....:)

Rather boring stuff.

But what was a bit more interesting, was MMS passing through the $200 million dolar market cap mark this year.... meaning Standard & Poors Fund Radars, ASX 300 in\dices contention in my view....

But to do, and be a nice Fund Share like say Boom Logistics (BOL) they (MMS) admitidedly, imo, need more liquidity....

.... hmmmm...... can you put those last set of rather easy dots together Corky ?? !!! ;);)

Regards,

Robbo:)

PS . Guestimate // think .... your comment Corky, in your, last post ....could indeed, be just.... "part"... of that......
Robbo ;)

Bobbyvee
29-05-2006, 09:29 PM
hi Robbo, MMS sure do need more liquidity as you say. If it is not a dumb question - how is that achieved? Are you saying they should put some of their own shares into the market, or issue more shares?

ASXIOU
29-05-2006, 09:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bobbyvee

hi Robbo, MMS sure do need more liquidity as you say. If it is not a dumb question - how is that achieved? Are you saying they should put some of their own shares into the market, or issue more shares?


share split

robbo
29-05-2006, 10:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Bobbyvee

hi Robbo, MMS sure do need more liquidity as you say. If it is not a dumb question - how is that achieved? Are you saying they should put some of their own shares into the market, or issue more shares?
.---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi ya, Bobby that is not a dumb question.

So what: "Should they/MMS do ? .."

They should do, imo, what adds most accretive value for/to their own (MMS) shareholders .... is what, imo.

....... And what is that?

One option.... is what ASXIOU suggests, which is an obvious alternative.

However my suspciion is that they might do a special rights issue, or a parrallel and seeprately listed prefs deal like ABC Childcare (ABS) did about 2 years ago.....??

Alternatively if they do go down either:

(a) the Merger and Acquisition Path..... again like similar growth stock stories like: BOL, ABS, EMI, TRG, IWL, GBT, TWO.... etc etc.... the that could end up providing a legitimate catalyst for an significant Instituional Placement ...

If one studies the recent history of Boom Logistics(BOL) in this light, one sees that (BOL) went from 92 million shares two years ago, to 169 million shares today ........ and yet did not dilute value, as Shareholders with BOL, (see my thread on Boom Logistics (BOL) here at Sharetrader) -- have also gained an 142% increase in the value of their (BOL) shares, plus dividends (3% franked) plus special prefs on $10K worth of shares, in the past 18 mths or so....and even the past 12 months has been, for (BOL) over 110% gains .... excluding divs.

While for MMS the Capital Appreciation/Gain,for investors, has been 130% over the past 10 months, plus 2.4% dividends, as an accrued Gain, to Mc Millan Shakespeare, (MMS) Share Holder Investors ....

In summary, MMS, being a growth stock, and probably targetting the 500 million Market Cap status for the indices, and being a scaleable Business Model,now that MMS havbe presumably refined their Business and IT Model and Systems I would tend to lead to predict, an Acquisition Path, that has an Instituional Placement/Participation component to help fund the growth.....

With a view to seeing MMS get to $450 Million organically, and probably about $75M to $95M placed, at current levels putting anhther 27 million shares in the market initially, to take MMS from 66 million ordinarries to say 98 millions or so... possibly being with a view to go again in anothr year after that, pushing stock on issue out to 125-130 millions or so... and market cap at about the $700-$800 million mark (back of envelope whimsical thought lines) .....

The above approx (MMS) scenario.... predictively speaking..... would not suprise me with MMS over the next few (18 mths to # 3 years)-- panning out.... progressively...

That is one distinct possiblity at any rate.

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

Bobbyvee
29-05-2006, 10:40 PM
Thanks ASXIOU and Robbo for the clarification of options. It promises an interesting future with what would seem a low risk profile.

ASXIOU
31-05-2006, 01:58 PM
For an explanantion of what went on Monday arvo read todays AFR page 18. It was a stuff up and all trades have been reversed.

corky
22-06-2006, 08:33 PM
Much ado about nothing in today's trading halt? Were MMS expected to retain the Q Govt business? I was expecting the Robbo placement :-)

Corky

robbo
22-08-2006, 05:27 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare. (MMS)

All's Well That Ends Well ...... with the Mc Millan Shakespeare (MSS) just now Released yearly financial Results. :)[:p]

NET PROFITS are officially Up -- + 117% and >> than $11, 000, 000 NPAT.

Certainly life is Good; .... "to be or not to be".... on the Stage with Shakepeare this ..... "fair gentle Spring...." ;) [:o)]

Adieu my fellow leiges,

Robbo :)

Bobbyvee
22-08-2006, 05:57 PM
What a fantastic result. Let's now hope the market responds positively and a few more shares appear on the "sell" side to give the buyers a chance.

Thanks for the lead (late 2005) into Shakespeare Robbo.

BobbyVee

robbo
22-08-2006, 09:27 PM
MC Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

Hi Bobby- McVeee,

Good one heh...:)

imo, do NOT care or worry ....or even consider .... what Mr Market thinks..... or DOES; ..... over the next week or three or even nine; , coz it is Totally irrelevant.

Remember, yes Virginia......:

Price and Value WILL ... eventually get re-aquainted ..... in the fullness of time, and so do not, EVER, imo fall for the old ..... Trap for newbies, of the cynical three (3) card party trick; of selling too early ..... or being prematurely spooked by not seeing the expected rise in the MMS Share Price straight away.... or even strangely, even sometimes .... in the next few weeks......

Can happen sooner, but typically can be.... as late as..... 2-3 months, TO OCCUR; (and btw that 2-3 months will FEEL often To You'; or at least to many ..... newbies and even others; .... about ten years ;).... ------

However Quality Does Rise to the Top; and DOES re rate, .... good growth TRULY First CLASS Excelent companies such as MMS ... eventually ...


So, imo, IT WILL (the up grade in s/price) happen ... is my experience.

When though?? >> ie: What time frame .... ???

Will imo happen... inevitably; when a fund or three..... gets around to hauling their butt into gear ..... and builds a longer term Position .... as a new entrant; into their Buy and Hold of MMS position.

****** Second important point:

Brokers and other fund related//larger so called "sophisticated" Buyers .... and other such silly smarties can ..... imo ..

..... Try to; "artificially stack the Sell Side" - (see for example RCR )-- and Give you the "impression" (FALSE, BTW)-- that no one really wants the stock ....

This is a cyncial CON JOB. .... imo....


... This is .... JUST...... a fake bit of cyncial manipulated B.S. --- imo.

But, imo, does Happen, very frequently.

Example.

Dominoes Pizza(DMP) puts out great result today.

Share goes down.

Same happened to AQP and RCR .....

Why so ??

Figure that out.

See what I have just written above ....

Also added to this is the following real reasons imo .....

What happnes is that; Instos cynically ..... try to "scare off" THE poor old "mums and dads holders and buyers" .... by taking away the SOCIAL PROOF factor....

This is one of the ...... Oldest nasty cyncial tricks in the book ...... lardy dah de dah so so obvious .... & so cyncially predictable ......

So what IS THE moral of story ??? [?]


Just forget about everything; for about.... 6-8 -10 .... weeks and tune back in about then...:)

If in doubt, and if U want to; you can give me a shout here at S/T.:)

Just do not be sucked into these sorts of "manipulative" games ...;):)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

Bobbyvee
22-08-2006, 10:23 PM
Robbo, thanks for those words of wisdom. Makes plenty of sense, will continue to hold/accumulate MMS.
You now make me wonder if I did the right thing selling down portion of my very healthy Emitch holding at $1.06 prior to the imminent result -selling too quickly?! Had the feeling they may be rising too quickly in the short term. All will be revealed on Thursday.

All the Best

BobbyVee

Bobbyvee
25-08-2006, 10:46 PM
Have you noticed the large volumes traded - 4 million Friday, 541,000 Thursday.

Any Ideas on who is buying and selling.

robbo
29-08-2006, 03:41 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS)

And the answer to the implied/question (about the large Volume --tranche of traded MMS shares, just the other day)-- querry in your post Bobbyvee,

..... >> is that: >> Thorney Holdings << -- have taken a "substantial interest" -- in Mc Millan Shakespeare (5.78% of the MMS shares on issue)--:)

..... As disclosed in todays; Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) on the ASX Announcement.

And before you ask Bobbyvee,..... "who are Thoney Holdings?"

My understanding that this group(Thorney Holdings) is associated with the Billionnaire Paper and Packaging entrepreneur; from Visy Industries, Mr. Richard Pratt.

PS.

Since this MMS thread started ....( only 10 months ago approx -- but seems longer than only 10 months... ;))-- MMS has risen 119-124 % in capital gains, plus fully franked dividends paid every 6 months !

Looking again today at the MMS KPI's, & the excellent healthy profit margins with which MMS operates with; and ALSO; the (Mike POrteresque "positioning: of MMS in the growth Market; in which it operates;-- personaly Bobbyvee, do Still see much more capital gaions appreciation potential for Mc Millan Shakespeare (MMS) imo, ..... as well, over the next..... 10 months .... btw Bobbyvee ![:p]

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
07-02-2007, 07:21 PM
Mc Millan Shakespeare. (MMS)

You may recall I mentioned this in my first post back from...
...."While I was away........thread....."

MMS, is seemingly; Warming up again now--imo---And --imo--with good reason--

Can you work the reason out..;)?

Regards,

Robbo:)

corky
07-02-2007, 08:06 PM
Robbo

You're putting me on the spot and I'm terrible under pressure.

Something to do with the equally strong TWO?
Very strong half yearly expected?
Generated a mountain load of cash?
The placement you alluded to a while ago (although that would hinder price movement n'est-ce pas?).

I'm sure you'll tell us eventually.

Cheers
Corky

I hold MMS.

robbo
07-02-2007, 10:08 PM
mms

I think you operate VERY well under pressure corky!! ;)

Regards,

Robbo:)

mark100
18-08-2010, 11:12 AM
Good result from MMS. Despite the good share price run they still seem reasonable value. If you annualise today's result for the Interleasing acqusition they're trading at around 11x FY10. And it seems like there is more growth to come

COLIN
28-09-2010, 09:04 PM
Good result from MMS. Despite the good share price run they still seem reasonable value. If you annualise today's result for the Interleasing acqusition they're trading at around 11x FY10. And it seems like there is more growth to come

Good continued steady upwards momentum. I agree, Mark, that MMS is a good value investment. P/E remains relatively low for a business of this nature.

Arbitrage
19-05-2011, 12:50 PM
Approaching its 12 month high.

Arbitrage
22-05-2013, 09:56 AM
Quite a volatile stock, but the price trend is still upwards.

ENP
28-05-2013, 08:23 AM
Quite a volatile stock, but the price trend is still upwards.

Why would you buy a stock because the trend is upwards?

mark100
17-07-2013, 04:41 PM
I imagine it will get hammered when trading resumes. It was priced for growth and is essentially a one trick pony dependent on govt legislation. It became too expensive for me almost two years ago even though it has continued to trend up beautifully along with large PE expansion.

I'm sure Roger Montgomery will say he sold last week after having a dream about Kevin Rudd's return and the change in legislation

Joshuatree
25-07-2013, 01:16 PM
WOW down re 50%,!!!! anyone get hit; if so sorry to see.

Sauce
25-07-2013, 01:29 PM
I'm sure Roger Montgomery will say he sold last week after having a dream about Kevin Rudd's return and the change in legislation

lol. thats a given.

Arbitrage
25-07-2013, 02:58 PM
Yes I think the market has over reacted on this one. However the uncertainty around future earnings and election thrown into the mix makes to difficult to put a price on the company. It may be worth a punt on Rudd withdrawing the proposed policy change...

blackcap
25-07-2013, 04:20 PM
Yes I think the market has over reacted on this one. However the uncertainty around future earnings and election thrown into the mix makes to difficult to put a price on the company. It may be worth a punt on Rudd withdrawing the proposed policy change...

Labour are at best a 25% chance to win the election... so is it really going to have that much of an impact? I mean the chances of Rudd being in power are pretty slim (if bookies and prediction sites are anything to go by). Why I say this is that I am then questioning if this is the only issue that we need to consider. If it is its pretty much taking a bet that Rudd will not win if you buy this stock and vice versa if you are selling.

mark100
25-07-2013, 04:41 PM
Even if Rudd loses the market won't pay a premium for MMS again. Elections come around every 3 years and there will always be fear. Also when the Liberals find out how big a mess the budget is in they might make their own changes to the FBT rules. They can extract savings now and always claim their measures aren't as severe as Rudd's.

If you ask me, MMS is now worth around 9x sustainable earnings. It is no longer a growth stock. Even based on this years profit that is only $7.60.

I was wrong about Roger M. He has actually owned up to owning MMS and has purchased more at $7 he claims, on the premise that Labor probably won't win. But like I said, even if the Liberals win I think the premium PE is gone for good.

Stranger_Danger
25-07-2013, 07:56 PM
I value at $4. A business almost entirely based on a legislative quirk is extremely profitable until the day it has the rug pulled out. Now is that day for MMS.

It'll take a while to get to $4, mind.

steve fleming
25-07-2013, 08:58 PM
I was wrong about Roger M. He has actually owned up to owning MMS and has purchased more at $7 he claims, on the premise that Labor probably won't win. But like I said, even if the Liberals win I think the premium PE is gone for good.

Yes some interesting thoughts from Roger

http://rogermontgomery.com/fbt-fairly-badly-trampled/

"we were at the head of the queue this morning to buy additional MMS shares at $7.00 and grateful for the ‘McMillan get smashed’ sentiment."

Arbitrage
26-07-2013, 11:26 AM
Looks like a share price bounce today.

Arbitrage
26-07-2013, 04:09 PM
The latest consensus valuation seems to be $13.50. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/under-the-radar/playing-election-odds-on-mcmillan-20130726-2qolp.html

winner69
26-07-2013, 04:58 PM
The latest consensus valuation seems to be $13.50. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/under-the-radar/playing-election-odds-on-mcmillan-20130726-2qolp.html


Consensus ....so it must be right then

Assumptions are interesting in calculating the likely outcomes that come up with this valuation

But the missing assumption is if abbot and his mates win and use the excuse we must balance the budget so we won't overturn this legislation. Would this suggest a greater weighting to the 6 buck valuation should be applied?

percy
26-07-2013, 05:05 PM
Surely it will depend on who the people most affected vote for.
Labour voters will think it is Liberals who get the most benefits,while Abbot will not want to pee in his own drinking water.?
The Greens will still just pee everywhere>!

Arbitrage
26-07-2013, 07:06 PM
A rather simplistic view of Australian politics Percy. The forces are gathering against Rudd on this issue. There was no consultation over this policy position prior to the announcement and the effects of this are starting to be realised. A back down by Rudd may be a better outcome.

winner69
26-07-2013, 07:12 PM
The latest consensus valuation seems to be $13.50. http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/under-the-radar/playing-election-odds-on-mcmillan-20130726-2qolp.html

Using the same logic and worst and best case valuations of $6 and $16 facoring in the reality if LNP win there is a 50% chance of the legislation being canned and 50% of it not.

So 37.5% probabity of $16 and 62.5% probability of $6 gives a valuation (as they describe such an answer) of $9.75

**** - it closed at $9.80 today

Maybe, just maybe, the market is pretty clever and can assess these things better than guru analysts (who probably are under water with their investment and want to convince themselves that it will be all ok in a month or two)

Fascinating how this will play out ....will price move with the polls? Will price follow how the real money at betfair is trending? Every time tony rabbit puts his foot in it the price falls? Kev kisses a few babies and the price falls? And all the other possibilities eh

But today it is worth $9.80 ....what it should be using probabilities of political outcomes.

percy
26-07-2013, 07:38 PM
A rather simplistic view of Australian politics Percy. The forces are gathering against Rudd on this issue. There was no consultation over this policy position prior to the announcement and the effects of this are starting to be realised. A back down by Rudd may be a better outcome.

Don't know if that is because I am rather simple or if it is because Australian politicans are very simple.
Rudd will go with what ever wins him votes.He needs the support of labor voters first and foremost .

Arbitrage
27-07-2013, 11:49 AM
We can argue share price forever. Let's not oversimplify MMS. They seem to be good operators and hopefully nimble enough to work through (or around) this situation.

winner69
28-07-2013, 03:02 PM
This little bit from the SMH


It wasn't just Citi; it was the whole market that had missed the risk. Here was one of the glamour stocks: 20 per cent compound growth in revenue and profits each year, ennobled by a rampaging share price and a P/E ratio of almost 17.

McMillan directors, it should be said, were sage enough not to leave all their eggs in one basket. According to 14 disclosures to the ASX since 2010, the company's management and board managed to offload $120 million in shares and options.

Moral of the story No.1: watch what directors are doing. Moral No.2: if you are playing in loopholes, be prepared to be closed down at any moment.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mcmillan-lesson-no1-watch-what-directors-are-doing-20130726-2qq72.html#ixzz2aJFMP0Dd

percy
28-07-2013, 03:51 PM
This little bit from the SMH


It wasn't just Citi; it was the whole market that had missed the risk. Here was one of the glamour stocks: 20 per cent compound growth in revenue and profits each year, ennobled by a rampaging share price and a P/E ratio of almost 17.

McMillan directors, it should be said, were sage enough not to leave all their eggs in one basket. According to 14 disclosures to the ASX since 2010, the company's management and board managed to offload $120 million in shares and options.

Moral of the story No.1: watch what directors are doing. Moral No.2: if you are playing in loopholes, be prepared to be closed down at any moment.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mcmillan-lesson-no1-watch-what-directors-are-doing-20130726-2qq72.html#ixzz2aJFMP0Dd

I hope our friend Roger was the buyer.!

Arbitrage
29-07-2013, 01:53 PM
That SMH article knocked the price today.

steve fleming
30-07-2013, 09:10 PM
Roger Montgomery is now saying they only had a small holding in MMS prior to the downgrade ("not enough to really worry us"), they then picked up around 7 million further shares at around $7.

So its basically a $5m bet on the outcome of the election on behalf of his unit-holders....completely against what he preaches in terms of buying quality low risk businesses that will be around for generations.

His smugness is astounding.

Stranger_Danger
30-07-2013, 09:30 PM
He'll lose millions. This is a classic value trap.

steve fleming
30-07-2013, 09:49 PM
He'll lose millions. This is a classic value trap.

Agree. But in Roger's world, he never looses money.

Arbitrage
31-07-2013, 07:57 AM
Roger gives a 20% chance of the FBT changes being implemented http://rogermontgomery.com/further-thoughts-on-mcmillan-shakespeare/
However the polls say Labour has a much closer chance of winning the election than that. Also Abbott may want to implement the changes anyway.
The article seems to be promoting MMS with statistics that don't make sense.

RRR
04-08-2013, 12:52 PM
I was tempted to get in over the last 2-3 years and the share price appreciated 80% from the time it entered my watch list. I felt I missed out! Now back to where it was few years ago! I am glad that I didn't invest(pure luck of course).

I will stay well clear, the risks are too high for a conservative investor like me!

Arbitrage
12-08-2013, 01:41 PM
The latest opinion poll appears to be having a positive effect on the share price.

born2invest
02-10-2013, 02:24 PM
Looking back,

Would any one of you bought the shares?

I've had MMS on my watchlist for some time but felt like I couldn't sleep at night knowing they were exploiting a loophole in the tax system as their sole income which as we have seen can be changed at any time.

macduffy
02-10-2013, 02:39 PM
Looking back,

Would any one of you bought the shares?

I've had MMS on my watchlist for some time but felt like I couldn't sleep at night knowing they were exploiting a loophole in the tax system as their sole income which as we have seen can be changed at any time.

Yes, I was tempted - but then I also need my sleep!

So, no.

:)

born2invest
02-10-2013, 02:53 PM
Yes, I was tempted - but then I also need my sleep!

So, no.

:)

Even when you found out Tony Abbott won the election?

macduffy
02-10-2013, 02:58 PM
Even when you found out Tony Abbott won the election?

Yes, he's a politician too!

born2invest
03-10-2013, 11:03 AM
Roger Montgomery is now saying they only had a small holding in MMS prior to the downgrade ("not enough to really worry us"), they then picked up around 7 million further shares at around $7.


If you look at The Mongomery Fund twice monthly reports, found here:
http://fundhost.com.au/investor/tmf

What I find odd is that I looked through both the MMS annual report showing the 20 largest shareholders as at 12th August and the CCP annual report as at 31st August. The Montgomery fund is no where to be seen? The 20th largest shareholder of MMS owns 266,000 shares and the 20th largest in CCP owns 151,500 shares. This equates to just over $3 million AUD invested into MMS and $1.5 million AUD into CCP.

This seems extremely odd to me because the Montgomery Funds picking style is to pick "a few outstanding business and acquire them at rational prices" but if their share holding is less than 3 million in their largest holding of $67 million worth of stocks, then they only own at most 4.47% of their money which is invested into stocks in their largest holding of MMS currently. Or in context of the entire portfolio including cash, 3.45%

The more I uncover about this guy, the less I like.

macduffy
03-10-2013, 11:34 AM
The " 20 largest shareholder list " of a company only shows the 20 largest registered holders. It's quite common for large holders to use more than one nominee to hold their shares, particularly if they are in the process of building, or reducing a holding and don't want to draw attention to the fact. Disclosure of a significant holding ( called a "substantial holding" ) only becomes required when the beneficial interest of a party reaches 5% of the company's capital, regardless of who the registered holder(s) of those shares are.

Arbitrage
22-10-2013, 01:03 PM
A positive report to the AGM by the CEO.

Summary page:

FY13 Financial highlights
 Continuing strong profitable growth.
 Consolidated NPAT $62.2m (15% growth on PCP).
 Diluted EPS growth 10.5%.
 Group Remuneration Services NPAT $46.8m (16% growth; 23% core operating contribution1
growth).
 Asset Management NPAT $15m (5% growth; 19% ex-remarketing profits).
 Strong free cashflow ($60.1m pre fleet increase).
 Return on equity 34%.
 Fully franked dividend of 18 cps declared 22 October 2013 payable 22 November 2013.

Share price up around 7% today.