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robbo
11-11-2005, 11:49 AM
GBST ASX (GBT)

Share Price Now: $1.28

Robbo’s opinion and Prediction in 21- 30 Days -- >> $1.55

Market Cap still only $55 Million and look at the growth in quarter to quarter to quarter to quarter EBITA….. and low PE of -9-10 range

**-- Also look at the Last Line on this ASX Announcement on the EBITA growth of GBT announcement…. Ie: EBITA growth is 57% for the quarer.... following previous strong quarters....: >>> For the Quarter !! Annualize that…and you get…..

Demonstrates that GBT is a highly scaleable, 'repat business' (click, click, click 24 ghours 7 days, 365 days etc... business operation with an effective Proven safe model of business operation, with Mangemnt who have now got the "runs on the board" --- IMO...

So below ... is the Impressive ASX Announcement for GBST... (GBT)

10th November, 2005

GBST announces Q1 FY’06 EBITDA up 54%

GBST – Australia’s largest provider of securities transaction processing - today announced
highlights of the group’s performance for the quarter ended 30 September 2005.

Q1 FY’06 Highlights

• Operating Revenue of $6 million up 14% from pcp,
• EBITDA of $1.75 million up 54% on pcp,
• Citigroup Custody went live on GBST’s third party clearing platform and introduced their
first client,
• Leverage Equities, went live with GBST’s Margin Lending Interface, delivering new
recurring license revenues,
• At 30 September 2005, the company had cash reserves of $7.7 million and no
borrowings.
GBST Managing Director, Stephen Lake said “Our solid growth in profitability for the
quarter reflects higher levels of trading activity than the comparative quarter and recurring
license revenues from new business. The use of specialist staff to manage client
relationships is also delivering growth in services revenue and a healthy pipeline of future
work. Our results continue to benefit from the levels of equities trading volumes however,
consistent with our peers, we can not predict future trading levels.”
In releasing these results Mr Lake commented that “GBST’s balance sheet strength upon listing, and our trading performance since, leaves us well positioned to acquire the Palion broking business and consider other opportunities. Our negotiations with OMX for the acquisition of Palion remain on track and we believe it is important for the market to understand our current financial position as we enter into this acquisition. “

- ENDS -

Results Summary Quarter to 30 Sept
2006 2005 % increase $'000 $'000
Operating Revenue 6,024 5,290 > 14%
Operating Expenditure 4,272 4,151 3%

EBITDA 1,752 1,139 54% Increase in EBITA [:p][^]


ASX Announcement and Media Release for GBST (ASX: GBT)

About GBST
Established in 1983 GBST (Global Banking and Securities Transactions) is the largest
provider of securities transaction processing in Australia and a leading provider of
transaction solutions for the financial services industry.
GBST’s core competence is real time integrated transaction processing which reduces costs
and the need for and risks to capital for a wide variety of market participants, including:
global investment banks, custodians, clearers, stockbrokers, exchanges, margin lenders,
and cash management providers.
With offices in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, GBST has around 130 staff committed to
providing advanced transaction solutions.
www.gbst.com
Contact: Stephen Lake Managing Director/CEO
GBST Holdings Limited
Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555 Email: stephen.lake@gbst.com
Or Kieran Wallis CFO GBST Holdings Limited
Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555
Email: Kieran.wallis@gbst.com
:)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
15-11-2005, 04:53 PM
GBST (GBT)

If you are interested, errrr... of course, ..... in my view only...-- ;);)

Ya Better be real quick.... and get a hurry along...;);)

Disclaimer: This is not advice, just a personal opinion.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)
PS IN my view only, and based on careful assessment and valuation, and likely futrue earnings guidance by co., -- 25% - 30% in next 30 days, and 100%++ increase in share price, in next 7-9 months...

robbo
16-11-2005, 08:19 PM
GBSST (GBT)

GBST (GBT) Up a seemingly healthy 5.0 % today. [:p]

But this is only the start of the beginning, but that is of course only in my personal view and not(repeat NOT) ... in any way whatsoever ..... meant to be construed as advice ......

My reasons for that strong bullish view for (GBT) do get stronger with further reflection and assessment though ...... ;);)

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
17-11-2005, 12:19 PM
GBST (GBT)

Hi ya ... absolt-advance,

Thanx for your nice comments. Always makes it more worthwhile, a token of appreciation..... and so again thanx absolut-advance .....

Absolut-advance; Just do the intrinsic 'enterprise valuation' and "Margin of Safety calcs" and future likely predictable discounted earnings on EBITA growth maths, and 'join the lateral minded other aspcects of the organisational enterprise dots', IMO... absolut-advance, we have here a Winner with GBT !--- absoluteadvance --- [:p][:p]

-- errrrr....absolut-advance .... do, IMO..... Watch the ASX announcments, But IMO only, do not sell into or sell too quick or prematurely.... this one, IMO absolut-advance, has Got a Loooong Buuurn upwards trajectory IMO......'

'----, as the Clue absolut-advance for GBT Market Cap Potential, is in:

(1) The Industry sector and market Space

(2) The 'who's who' of some of the directors (including Sundell family) :

(3) Peer Company Market Cap and share Price Rise of IWL (ASX code : IWL)

(4) Lengthy successful niche and history

(5) Fabulous consistent proftability, stability and proven success of management, year on year ROE and EBITA numbers...

.... AND....

(6) -- ****>>>>--- The veeery ..... interesting Clue in the last (IWL) ASX announcement....

ASX Announcement for GBT from: 19 September 2005

The critical sentence absolut-advance is in third para.:;);):)
namely....

" Assuming the satisfactory conclusion of due diligence, the parties expect the transaction would be completed in November 2005...." ;);)[:p]

Kindest Regards,

absolt-advance

Robbo -- :):)

Rest of ASX announcment re printed below:

GBST IN DISCUSSIONS WITH OMX FOR ACQUISITION OF ‘PALION’ BUSINESS.


GBST advises that discussions are underway in relation to the possible acquisition by GBST of the OMX Palion broking business from OMX Technology Australia Pty Ltd (“OMX”).

GBST currently provides solutions to the Australian broker market for equity transaction traded on the ASX. OMX Palion provides a similar service for equity options. Both GBST and OMX agree there is a logical fit between GBST’s solutions and those offered by OMX under
the Palion brand.

The due diligence process is currently being undertaken and GBST is, therefore, unable to provide guidance on the financial impact of the transaction. Assuming the satisfactory conclusion of due diligence, the parties expect the transaction would be completed in
November 2005.;);)[:p]

GBST will advise the market of any material developments.
- END -
For further information, please contact:
GBST
Stephen Lake
CEO and MD
T +61 7 3331 5555
F +61 7 3367 0181
stephen.lake@gbst.com
About GBST
Established in 1983 GBST (Global Banking and Securities Transactions) is the largest provider of securities transaction processing in Australia and a leading provider of transaction solutions for the financial services industry.
GBST’s core competence is real time integrated transaction processing which provides the capability to increase revenues, reduce costs, for a wide variety of market participants including: global investment banks, custodians, clearers, stockbrokers, exchanges, margin
lenders, and cash management providers.

With offices in Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne, and Hong Kong, GBST has over 130 staff committed to providing advanced transaction solutions.
www.gbst.com
ASX Announcement and Media Release
------------- ends --------------------------------------------------

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)
Disclaimer:
Robbo's Disclaimer:
These above expressed opinions and comments are not, and ought NOT to be construed as being in any form financial advice. They are not financial advice of any kind. These comments are only one possible subjective view, and are only a personally held whimsical and subject to change and qualification, personal opinion. These comments are not officially sanctioned and therefore are expressed only on a: 'without prejudice basis' --

oxley
17-11-2005, 12:32 PM
Sold my MAL shares for a small profit(a rare bird indeed). Still hold some in another portfolio, and will monitor closely to jump back in.

Bought in at $1.40, and amazingly after 10 mins have not gone down:D:D:D:D.

Very thin on the sell side so hoping this will force the buyers to pay what is asked.

What happens if no one is selling[?][?][?]. never seen that before.
I guess its then up to the buyers to up the ante.

Cheers Oxley

robbo
17-11-2005, 12:34 PM
GBST (GBT)

If you see my last just posted 'post' before this post, on this GBT thread, -- you will find six (6) juicy Good Clues, that will hopefully Oxley, put MORE Smiles on Your Dial ...

:D:D:D:D:D [8D]

Regards,

Robbo :)

OneUp
17-11-2005, 01:35 PM
Nice pick Robbo. Any particular reason you prefer GBT to IWL?

robbo
17-11-2005, 02:45 PM
BGT verus IWL

Thanx -- One Up!

Both Good Companies and Shares...IMO -- One Up !!

However on a Comparative basis, as implied in your post's question, One Up, it is on a "Present Tense Time Basis" , that the relative undervaluendess vis a vis VALUE point of view, that there is, only..... IMO --- Now At This Current momement in time, IMO..... more Share Price and Market Up Side Increasing Growth of S/Price growth Potential in GBT.....

Two years ago One Up, would have also been very Bullish on Potential of IWL and IWL's then (2 years ago) undervalued Share Price and Market S/Price 'Up Side' vis a vis their (IWL) Increasing Growth of S/Price growth Potential.

Also it must be said, that in with IWL's recent JDV acquisition, IWL do still have stacks of nice new plusses....IMO ... :)

Actually I just sold a Parcel of IWL about 2-3 days ago.... But there you have it One Up.:)

Hope that helps 'in a balanced sort of way' -- One Up ....??

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :):)

tommy
17-11-2005, 03:30 PM
Great tip robbo,

I'm gonna get into this one too.

GBT does look extremely undervalued at the current level, the sell side is ridiculously thin or what! As usual I will dig around and see what kind of articles and news I can find on GBST Holdings ;)

____
P.S. Robbo, I regret having sold off SEN and EMI too early, but I suppose it's better to forego some extra profits than losing money (can't be too greedy I suppose)... I get scared when a share skyrockets too fast, I'm not a trader so I prefer slow but steady incremental rises! ENG looks like it's running out of steam, a nice entry point soon?.

tommy
17-11-2005, 03:39 PM
Found an old article:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/christopher-webb/veteran-stockman-whips-up-interest/2005/06/29/1119724698987.html


Veteran stockman whips up interest
Strictly Private
Christopher Webb
June 30, 2005


Hard-To-Get shares in GBST Holdings, the largest independent provider of securities clearing systems in the country, have given their owners very handy profits indeed of up to 30 per cent.

Underwritten by ABN Amro Corporate, the scrip was rationed out to fewer than 700 folk and the desired spread was achieved, with most of them holding fewer than 10,000 shares.

The float shares were handed out at $1 and on Tuesday, the first day of listing, they closed at $1.205 while yesterday they hit $1.30.

The vendors hung on to close to 80 per cent of the offering, and one other point of interest is that the outfit has a decent sort of record, unlike most of the garbage that has been foisted on punters by some in the stockbroking and merchant communities in recent years.

GBST extracted pre-tax earnings of $3.4 million on sales of $21 million last year, and for the current year the take is tipped at $4.5 million from sales of $22 million.

Not much sales growth in those numbers, but maybe there's business to be had in the 42 of the 81 stockbroking firms that are not on GBST's client list.

And adding a bit of lustre was the company's winning this week of Citigroup's third-party clearing service in Australia.

Meanwhile, most of the stock is controlled by directors in the form of Joakim Sundell, John Puttick and Stephen Lake and scarcely a recognisable name was on the share register.

But there was one, and it was none other than Sir Brent Roderick Potts, veteran deal-doer and still lining up a useful chunk of block trades as shown by his Southern Cross Equities' buying of Just Group scrip for share trader Solomon Lew.

Potts weighed in with 250,000 GBST shares, which is petty change in the Potts world but nevertheless represents one of the larger allocations of stock to an outsider.

Southern Cross placed about $4 million to $5 million of stock to institutions and the firm likes the stock.

Potts has a penchant for stocks linked to stock exchange turnover and it might be recalled that nearly seven years ago he was one of the few brokers to publish research on the Australian Stock Exchange before it listed.

Some stockbrokers made duffers of themselves by selling out far too early but Potts dubbed it a "cashed-up natural monopoly" and recommended all and sundry buy the stock up to $4.50 shortly after it listed.

GBST is obviously not in the same league, but nevertheless interesting to see the master broker on the list.

OneUp
17-11-2005, 03:45 PM
Thanks for the feedback Robbo.

I'm also planning to enter this one Tommy, if the price is right. Perhaps it's a little overbought in the very short term (from sharetrader punters??). I'll probably give it a couple of days to cool down (relying on that Oxley curse kicking in ;)).

robbo
17-11-2005, 05:00 PM
GBT

Your not saying my meanderings & posts would ever influence, or swing a market, on a share are you One Up?? ;)[:0]

NO, surely not..... :)

Robbo:)

oxley
17-11-2005, 06:17 PM
I am thinking about marketing the Oxley CURSE. [}:)][}:)][}:)][}:)]

$10,000 up from from the company or i BUY in, gauranteed to wipe off at least 10% of share price.

Wonder if i could float a company (TOC) (The Oxley Curse)on the ASX with my record to date.

Onlything is it would probably go down as well(But that would mean it was working well[xx(][xx(][xx(]) Therefore price would go up.

Nothing like a double negative.

Think about it.

Cheers Oxley

P.S Share price is still above what i paid for them.

tommy
17-11-2005, 06:54 PM
Love the idea of floating The Oxley Curse (TOC):D

I am on the waiting list to buy a couple of shares on the cheap again but they don't seem be showing any signs of plummeting (namely EMI, SEN, ACL)... so may be you can help me!!

Anyway, I am also terrible at buying stocks on the cheap, and it is not unusual for me to sit on a 20% paper loss for a few months until I finally make a good profit.
In every instance that I have pulled out prematurely, I regretted it, so now I stick to the stock until it rises again (MAL being a perfect example! YAWN).

Hopefully this will not apply to GBT! It looks like a great stock, check out their annual report 2005 at:

http://www.gbst.com/downloads/gbst_annualReport_2005.pdf

AGM Presentation:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=172480

Chairman's address:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=172477

CEO's address:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=172479

pago
17-11-2005, 07:15 PM
hi tommy,gbt price has gone up to quick,i am interested in a buy but not now.most t/a indicators say its over bought today,these indicators are correct 80% of the time,its your call,i expect a retrace,not much,cheers pago,

robbo
17-11-2005, 09:09 PM
Hi Guys,

Geeeee ..... some really great Share Trading/Investing Concepts & Ideas, being tossed around in this delicious Fruit Salad of Chat .....

errrr... ..yep, I admit, and just quickly absolutadvance, I try and eke out a bare bum of a meagre living, from Share Investing.... which in between Crisp Cold Crownies..... and going to and from Coolangatta, is my Full Time Slob of a Job .......

And back to the Central Points of the last few Very Good Posts.....

....Which are exceeelllent, coz that IS ....why we are all here at S/Trader (ASX division); or.... as One Up so aptly said Today ... ... ie: to try to assist all of us to Make More compounding Money.... for Us and for those we Love .... :):)

That simple really!

Can I comment on some of the Thought threads .....??

If a share has gone up say 13%, like say GPT in the last few days ought we necessarilly say that in now overbought?

Well as usual..... it really Depends... ...

--And it depends, IMO, on a "case by case basis"-- For example would any of us have minded buying Emitch for 11 cents plus 13% just 17 months ago, or Objective Corp for 55 cents plus 13% -- or Senetas for 6 cents plus 13%.... Certainly with benefit of hindsight, I would be in at those Share Prices....even given the 13% rise on those sahre price numbers ....

-But does this logic apply to GBT?

Again it depends ?

Here is how silly 'ol Robbo's Crownie addled mind works with such philosophical questions....

(1) I instantly try to Benchmark the said share, against a comparable Benchmark industry Sector similar share....

In this case the obvious case is IWL....

(2) Then it is over to the Trusty Old '4 Drawer File Cabinet Number Five', and we pull out the Annual Reports for said company (IWL).....In this case, we can ... with a little research see that IWL in, and as of: June 2003 had a Market Cap of the approx same(a little smaller) as that GBT had today....ie: $51 millions compared to GBT today of M/Cap: 60 millions

(3) How has IWL gone over that 30 month period?

IWL has increrased in share price, (allowing for dilutiion and averaging that out)-- from # $1.20 to todays price of # $3.45 -- about 185% on my math.... or about 77% amotorized per year; over last # 30 months .....which is Very Good Indeed....

(4) But a closer look at the Annual reports and comparing them side by side.... and comaparing the math and the numbers is, IMO....quite revealing; and potentially Even Better News....IMO.... for prospective GPT Investors...... ;):)

Why so?

(a) Well IWL had a revenue then of: $22.1 Millions, when it was same size as GPT, and a profit of: $1.58 millions. While GPT has a Revenue of: $ 23.75 millions, with a proffit of $5,010 millions.

(b) The Profit Margin for IWL then was,12% while GPT's Profit Margin as of just released Annual Report is: 37.2%


(c)The ROE for IWL then was 3.79% while GPT is today: ROE of a Very High, 55.7% whihc gets a Huge Big positive Tick, IMO....

(d) The EPS for IWL was then 1.2 cents per sahre (cps) while GPT is today 12.5 cps:

(e) The Price Earnings (PE) for IWL then was Too high really, IMO.... at: 89.... while today GPT is a PE of: 11. This is against an Industry Average PE of: 20. Today IWL's PE is back to a PE of: 21.....

So there is a Comparo which gives some Food For Thought.

Other Points might Include:

GPT has already Reported Quarterly Earnings Increse of 57% -- whihc obviously if they keep that Cranking that out, will ahve a highly Big Impact on EBITA for the Next Reporting Half....

....If the Deal with Palion comes through this Month (Novemeber), (see ASX announcmement as this is when it is estimated deal will be finalized...??!!) and which is repeated on this GBT thread a couple of posts ago....) .....and The Acquistion represents say a 10% Increase In Base Revenues without synergies, on Top of Current Business Model; and they (GBT) get Scaleability to bring that up to 20 %, but let's discount that to 17% Increase IN EBITA.... which on my calcs is cons

pago
17-11-2005, 09:28 PM
hi robbo,good post.i expect a retrace,1.30 very good buy,1.35 tops,but i could be wrong,the only reason i say that,is this share is very tightly held,no/little liquidity.cheers pago,

mark100
18-11-2005, 12:30 AM
Nice post robbo and good pick

Cheers

robbo
18-11-2005, 10:55 AM
GBST (GBT)

Thanx for that guys.

By the way,

Wonder whether anyone can assist ??

Just as a General Themastic Question...... for those who also mildly seem to like GBT, what is the One (two max) Thing / Quality....??

ie: the One Main broad Factor, that somewhat appeals and takes Your Interest in a share like GBT ?

Very interested in your opinions ??

It will help me with some Semi Private modelling I'm doing 'on the side' regards a Topic called: 'Consensus formation Factors' .....

So your Input and Help would be so much appreciated...

So I'm sort of looking for the answer to the question:

What is just the first primary thing; that came to your mind or attention, in the "appeal factor" that may have singled this Stock out, and picqued your interest" ?

-- and maybe even distinguished GBT from some of the other recent Stocks I had started threads on....?

Just a few lines, in response would be really great guys. BTW-- you do 'not', obviously have had to actually buy this stock (GBT). Just that you would have most definitely Watch-listed or Short-listed it ....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

oxley
18-11-2005, 10:10 PM
Hope you are absolutely correct, hopefully before matilda starts to move as I want to be there when it starts mining after the wet season is over(assuming the EIS goes ok)

Oxley is still in front after three days(almost a record).

Cheers Oxley.

tommy
18-11-2005, 10:55 PM
Appeal factors:

1. Low P/E ratio (x10 compared to sector average of x18)

2. Strong growth based on recurring-revenue-oriented business model

3. Big market share (48%)

4. Citibank uses GBST Shares™ platform

5. Is in the tech sector (I'm bullish on techies at the moment!)

6. Still under the radar of big instos due to relatively small market cap ($60 million)

In consideration of the above, this IMHO has "potential" written all over it!

robbo
23-11-2005, 12:57 PM
GBST (GBT)

Will "kick again very shortly IMO....

When ?--

-- IMO-- Probably by Friday/Monday, and at the latest in another 7-10 days but suspect the former .....

GBT is ...I feel .....very Undervalued with excellent Current and more importantly Forward increasingly Solid good Profits Earnings ....on Excellent Profit Margins in a Scaleable, growth Sector and a Nice almost to themselves, in a easy to understand growth business .....IMO...

I am personally accumalating More GBT stock ...[:p]

Regards,

Robbo :)

Motto:
“ Buy when……. everyone else is selling , and ….. hold until everyone else is buying.
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….”
... J. Paul Getty’
Disclaimer:
Views expressed above, cannot be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. Comments expressed here; are on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Views are only the author’s personal, subjective whimsical thoughts, sometimes experiences, and intuitions. Obviously, as with all opinions, they are open to discussion and refutation, as well as other interpretations and review. In that light, for any investment decision, always do your own research, seek independent financial advice and independent counsel you can trust at all times. Therefore, please take these opinions and sentiments only in this context.
Kindest Regards,
Robbo :)

robbo
24-11-2005, 10:32 AM
GBST (GBT) ---

Big Positive new Announcement This Morning.:) Thursday 24/11/05

Re-Printed slightly edited version below:

ASX Announcement and Media Release
November 24, 2005

GBST acquires Palion Broking Business from OMX

The acquisition is expected to make an immediate positive contribution to GBT's cash flow and EBITDA ……...... :)[:p]

GBST and OMX Technology Australia Pty Ltd (“OMX”) have today announced that an agreement has been executed for the acquisition by GBST of the Palion broking business for AUD$5.1 million.

The acquisition is expected to complete by mid-December, subject to
various conditions.

GBST Chief Executive Officer, Mr Stephen Lake said: “There is a logical fit between the GBST and Palion solutions and this acquisition represents a significant step forward in our strategy to expand our product suite and provide our clients with a more streamlined system of processing both their equity and derivatives transactions.

The customer feedback since we announced our intentions has been overwhelmingly positive.

We have many mutual customers who are looking forward to a unified solution and we believe this offering will benefit this industry as a whole”.

The Palion business was acquired by OMX in 2004.

The divestment of the Palion business in Australia is consistent with the global plan announced by OMX to sharpen its focus on marketplaces (exchanges, clearing organisations and central securities depositories).

The Palion product suite includes ‘DCA’, the leading client accounting system for options trading in Australia.

This product is currently used by approximately 60% of brokers
trading ASX listed equity options. Other software products recently developed by the Palion team include a trade order management system and risk management system.

The agreement includes GBST assuming full responsibility for the existing Palion customer base along with the staff members currently employed in the business. The Directors of GBST expect the integrated business to make a strong contribution to EBITDA and EPS in its first full year.

“We are very pleased to have the highly skilled Palion team joining GBST to continue their support and
development activities.

The Palion and GBST technical staff come from similar cultural backgrounds, and we are excited by the prospect of combining the talents of these technically excellent people.” commented Mr Lake.

The acquisition is expected to make an immediate positive contribution to cash flow and EBITDA……

The Directors of GBST expect the integrated business to make a strong contribution to EBITDA and EPS in its first full year.
- ENDS -
About GBST

Established in 1983 GBST (Global Banking and Securities Transactions) is the largest provider of securities transaction processing in Australia and a leading provider of transaction solutions for the financial services industry.

GBST’s core competence is real time integrated transaction processing which reduces costs and the need for and risks to capital for a wide variety of market participants, including:
global investment banks, custodians, clearers, stockbrokers, exchanges, margin lenders, and cash management providers.

With offices in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, GBST has around 130 staff committed to providing advanced transaction solutions.
www.gbst.com

Contact: Stephen Lake …. Managing Director/CEO
GBST Holdings Limited Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555
Email: stephen.lake@gbst.com
Contact: Kieran Wallis CFO GBST Holdings Limited
Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555 Email: kieran.wallis@gbst.com

Motto:
“ Buy when……. everyone else is selling , and ….. hold until everyone else is buying.
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….”
J. Paul Getty’
Disclaimer:
Views expressed above, cannot be re

robbo
24-11-2005, 01:59 PM
GBT

Up 7% today following the announcemnt... and The Buying Support on the depth looks v. good, IMO ....

-- Apart from disucssing Palion: Nations Largest and Leading Clinet Accounting Options Trading System in Australasia.(see GBT official announcement on ASX on: 24/11/05)-

Also remember the latest GBT- Earnings Quarterly announceement in doing your Valuations on the real True Worth of this Co. (IMO)) guys:
• EBITDA of $1.75 million up 54% on pcp.

My own Prediction for GBST (GBT), is that the EBITA in Millions of dollars,(for next Fin Year end, will at least have a "7" in front of it, and indeed a "8" is not at all far fetched!! :)[:p].

Think Market Will start to get very Interested coz thiey are in a space after all where the Market Players easilly" can discover them ..... if ya know what I mean!

Relevant GBT Announcement from ASX is Re-Printed Below.

ASX Announcement and Media Release
10th November, 2005

GBST announces Q1 FY’06 EBITDA up 54%

GBST – Australia’s largest provider of securities transaction processing - today announced
highlights of the group’s performance for the quarter ended 30 September 2005.

Q1 FY’06 Highlights

• Operating Revenue of $6 million up 14% from pcp,
• EBITDA of $1.75 million up 54% on pcp,
• Citigroup Custody went live on GBST’s third party clearing platform and introduced their
first client,
• Leverage Equities, went live with GBST’s Margin Lending Interface, delivering new
recurring license revenues,
• At 30 September 2005, the company had cash reserves of $7.7 million and no
borrowings.
Results Summary Quarter to 30 Sept
% increase2006 2005
$'000 $'000
Operating Revenue 6,024 5,290 14%
Operating Expenditure 4,272 4,151 3%
EBITDA 1,752 1,139 54%

GBST Managing Director, Stephen Lake said “Our solid growth in profitability for the
quarter reflects higher levels of trading activity than the comparative quarter and recurring
license revenues from new business. The use of specialist staff to manage client
relationships is also delivering growth in services revenue and a healthy pipeline of future
work. Our results continue to benefit from the levels of equities trading volumes however,
consistent with our peers, we can not predict future trading levels.”

In releasing these results Mr Lake commented that “GBST’s balance sheet strength upon
listing, and our trading performance since, leaves us well positioned to acquire the Palion
broking business and consider other opportunities. Our negotiations with OMX for the
acquisition of Palion remain on track and we believe it is important for the market to
understand our current financial position as we enter into this acquisition. “

- ENDS -


About GBST

Established in 1983 GBST (Global Banking and Securities Transactions) is the largest
provider of securities transaction processing in Australia and a leading provider of
transaction solutions for the financial services industry.

GBST’s core competence is real time integrated transaction processing which reduces costs
and the need for and risks to capital for a wide variety of market participants, including:
global investment banks, custodians, clearers, stockbrokers, exchanges, margin lenders,
and cash management providers.

With offices in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, GBST has around 130 staff committed to
providing advanced transaction solutions.

www.gbst.com

Contact:

Stephen Lake
Managing Director/CEO
GBST Holdings Limited
Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555
Email: stephen.lake@gbst.com

Or

Kieran Wallis
CFO
GBST Holdings Limited
Phone: + 61 7 3331 5555
Email: Kieran.wallis@gbst.com

Regards,

Robbo:)


“ Buy only quality when ……. everyone else is selling , and ….. hold until everyone else is buying.
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….”

oxley
01-12-2005, 10:41 AM
Oxley still holding and still in front, sellers very thin on the ground again.:):):).

Anymore news on the horizon[?][?][?].

Cheers Oxley

robbo
01-12-2005, 10:49 AM
GBT GBST

Ah... the benefits of a tad of Patience....[8D]

GBT Steams along very very nicely....

Although the 10 days, since I started GBT thread ...... seems like an eternity to some Investors, this Stock is now showing Enormous Up Side potential, IMO... and Promise.

BTW .... GBT ....Reached an all time High Yesterday. [:p]

More news in pipeline I tink.....Stay tuned....

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

Robbo’s Motto:
“ Buy only quality when ……. everyone else is selling , and ….. hold until everyone else is buying.
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….” J. Paul Getty.

Disclaimer:
Views expressed above are unwarranted. These views are not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity.
Views expressed above, cannot be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. Comments expressed here; are on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Views are only the author’s personal, subjective whimsical thoughts, sometimes experiences, and intuitions. Obviously, as with all opinions, they are open to discussion and refutation, as well as other interpretations and review. In that light, for any investment decision, always do your own research, seek independent financial advice and independent counsel you can trust at all times. Therefore, please take these opinions and sentiments only in this context.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

oxley
01-12-2005, 07:18 PM
Blast!!!!!!:(:(:(:(

Back to sqaure one.

Cheers Oxley

robbo
02-12-2005, 04:17 PM
GBST (GBT)

Chill Oxley.:)

IMO, the undervaluedness will inevitably be "found" by the Market.:)

This Company .....GBST, has truly excellent Fundamentals .

Whether it be: Profit Margins, scaleability, repeat earnings, Branding Pricing Power, EBITA, NPAT, Return on Capital (ROE) , eps , Return on Equity/Capital Invested (ROE), NPAT, Sdales Revenue increses, Proven Stable management ... etc etc etc...:) ... Yep this Co does, IMO, get a Big Tick, in ALL the right Boxes.... :)

-So, IMO..... Oxley my good friend, just chill... put GBT in the Freezer, with your Stash of Mars Bars, and look again. in said freezer, in March ....:)

Think not about the Quoted Price Oxley. That is totally irreleveant, IMO..... I never never, NEVER.... ever, ever,
ever,ever.... "give a rats about quoted market ticker price"....

Think instead oxley, instead, about the intrinsic Quality and Competitive Pricing Power and Long Life Durability --- :) of the Actual Enterprise and Essential nature of the actual Business, that underpins your Stock, which is your real actual Investment.

Always.:)[:p]


Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

Robbo’s Motto:

“ Buy only quality when ……. everyone else is selling , and ….. hold until everyone else is buying. ... :)
This is more, than just a catchy slogan. It is the very essence of successful Investment….” J. Paul Getty.

Disclaimer:

Views expressed above are unwarranted. These views are not to be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity.Views expressed above, cannot be read as warranted, either expressed or implied, for their accuracy or veracity. Comments expressed here; are on a “Without Prejudice” basis only. Views are only the author’s personal, subjective whimsical thoughts, sometimes experiences, and intuitions. Obviously, as with all opinions, they are open to discussion and refutation, as well as other interpretations and review. In that light, for any investment decision, always do your own research, seek independent financial advice and independent counsel you can trust at all times. Therefore, please take these opinions and sentiments only in this context.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

mark100
07-12-2005, 02:50 PM
Abn Amro have recently initiated coverage of GBT with a buy recommendation.

They have a valuation of $1.89 and price target of $1.65. The price target's discount to valuation is due to them having no track record as a listed company and because they are a microcap.

I see in IWL's presentaion today they compare the EV / EBITDA multiples of similar companies. They are as follows:

ASX 19.3
ETR 15.2
IRE 12.6
IWL 9.8
GBT 8.1

So GBT is the cheapest in the sector by a fair margin. I have recently switched from IWL to GBT.

Mark

robbo
14-12-2005, 01:19 PM
GBT GBST

Up 3% today.

Could be ready to "rock n roll" with an analyst Report coming out on the ASX announceemnts....

Re-Printed Below:

TAYLOR COLLISON ANALYST BRIEFING
December 2005

GBST Business Position
GBST’s mission is to “Build consistently growing recurring revenues from financial markets transactions”

Largest independent investment network comprising:

• 42 stockbrokers
• over 1800 broker advisors; and
• over 1 million client investors

• AUD $58 billion worth of ASX trades per month


Corporate Overview FY2005
Normalised profit before tax $4.66m

• Increase of 35% on FY’04, $140,000 increase on prospectus forecast,
May 05 Operating EBITDA $4.95m

• Improvement in EBITDA margins to 22% of operating revenue after
$3m in product development and research
Listing on ASX in June 2004

• Restructure of capital base prior to listing
Positioned for organic/acquisition growth in FY2006

• Acquisition opportunities
• Favourable equity market conditions


GBST Market Position as at June 2005
% Market Share

Business Overview

• Provider of transaction processing, clearing, settlement and
market access solutions to the stockbroking and financial
advisory industry

• Active research and development program, $3m (FY04,
$3.2m)

• Building recurring license revenues
• Cash at 30 November 05 of $8.9m, no borrowings
• Industry consolidation provides opportunities for future
product growth and acquisitions


GBST Product Portfolio
Shares™
Other products
Market
Information
Research
Cash
Management
Trust
Integration
Margin
Lending™
Online™
WealthFront™ASX
Banks
NZSE
Margin
Lending
Interface
Other
Markets
Other products
ePost
ETC
BCS

GBST Financial Performance
Year to 30 June


Reported Results
Profit after tax 4,446 2,448 81.6%
* Result prior to impact of normalising items


Financial Results – Normalised items
Normalised profit before tax has been adjusted to;

• exclude costs of $1.08m associated with litigation and settlement to
a former director/shareholder. The dispute was settled in Sept ’04
• exclude variable licence revenue of $0.43m received in 2005. The
fee related to trading activity in prior financial years.
• exclude interest of $0.08m on redeemable preference shares which
converted to ordinary equity during the year and costs of $0.15m
associated with mergers and acquisitions advice.
Normalised profit after tax has been adjusted to exclude the above items
and the one-off tax credit arising from the recognition of timing
differences and carried forward tax losses from prior years.

Normalised EPS represents normalised profit after tax divided by the
shares on issue at 30 June 2005.

License fees Support Fees Sponsored Product resale
Recurring Recurring Development

Growth Strategy
• Product extension to other financial instruments
– Palion: Equities options/derivatives
– Other transaction processing markets
• Build community of industry participants on GBST
network
• Front Office software tools
• Continued investment in R&D
• Non-organic growth through acquisition

Outlook FY06
• Strong financial results Q1 FY06
– Operating Revenue $6m, up 14% on pcp
– EBITDA $1.75m, up 54% on pcp
• Q2 FY06 expected to exceed Q1FY06
• Cash reserves $8.9m end of November, no
borrowings
• Introduction of new Front Office products


Outlook FY2006
• Equity volumes continue to grow -+ 30% on PCP
• Third Party Clearing – new brokers/clients added
• Margin Lending Interface – first client live in Aug ‘05
• GBST Floats and Issues -first client live in Aug ‘05, second
and third in planning phase
• Sponsored development work – healthy pipeline of client
development work
• Business continuity service – additional clients
• Introduction and rollout of new Front Office products


Industry Outlook
• Financial services industry growing strongly
• Australia’s pool of investment funds worlds 4th

tommy
14-12-2005, 02:57 PM
Hi robbo,

I read the presentation too, good stuff:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=173338

BTW, they had Q1 EBITA growth of 54% (not 57%, typo[:I]) They expect Q2 to be even bigger so what will that come to[:p]

GBT is substantially undervalued still, and it is tightly held! Look at the extremely thin sell side, it's gonna be hard to top up without paying a premium i'm afraid...

I'm even tempted to sell off all my MAL holdings and pick up GBT instead. mmm... difficult choice.

tommy
14-12-2005, 05:06 PM
Hi AA,

Well done mate, we all have to collect profits at some point, it's better to optimize your portfolio if opportunity cost is getting too high[:I]

The problem with GBT is, as pointed out, liquidity... but I think it's much better than having squillions of shares and options on issue that results in dilution of shareholder value. I have topped up GBT again today even though it was after the release of the analyst briefing, simply because it said on page 13:

Strong financial results Q1 FY06
– Operating Revenue $6m, up 14% on pcp
– EBITDA $1.75m, up 54% on pcp
* Q2 FY06 expected to exceed Q1FY06
* Cash reserves $8.9m end of November, no borrowings

GBT's PE ratio is only x12 at the moment, downside risk seems minimal in terms of fundamentals and IMHO this is a steal!

oxley
17-01-2006, 12:41 PM
Happy New Year to all at Share Trader[8D][8D][8D][8D][8D].

When does the quarterly report appear[?][?][?].

There seems to be very little interest in the stock at the moment, apart from a few selling of and sending the price down.:(:(.

Any news on the horizon Robbo[?][?][?].


Cheers Oxley

robbo
17-01-2006, 01:33 PM
Happy New Year Oxley...

Do not think from memory that GBT have to actually put out a quarterly...... ??-- Oxley... I am on hols so do not ahve my files with me.... but would be suprised if they are on quarterly reporting with the ASX, given their earnings record....


--Which menas reporting Season for GBT like so many(majority) of other listed co's)-- others, will be in mid-late February .

Yes, this share is seemingly below the "market radar" and in relative hibernation at present.

What negatives does this indicate for GBT ?

Answer: Nil. None and Zero.

It just simply means that GBT is not the rum and raisin ice-crea; "flavour of the month" --- with..... "the crowd".

My thoughts are simple with GBT.-- Patience with a capital "P:.

Patience rewards handsomely,..... so so so often, imo Oxley.

IMO patience wil reward handsomely with GBT too.

That is of course only my own view.

Kindest Regards and a very very prosperous New Year to you Oxle; y and to your family ....

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

tommy
17-01-2006, 03:32 PM
Hi robbo and oxley,

Yup, agree with robbo's comments entirely on this one, if the price starts slipping I will be topping up GBT [:p] This is an illiquid stock in the first place, not a trading stock so I'm holding GBT for the medium/long-term! With a P/E ratio of 12, this stock is an absolute bargain. IMHO, it is only a matter of time for GBT to get a market cap of $100 million.

robbo
17-01-2006, 04:38 PM
GBT (GBST Holdings)

Hi ya oxley and Tommy et al,

Good Comparo company for a simil;ar "space" GBT is, imo IWL..

Compare their respective Market Caps and you get an idea, in my view of the Medium Long term potential of GBT.


But you are exactly right, imo, Tommy.... GBT would not be suitable as a Day or weekly or even as a monthly trading stock.

From memory when I went over the ratio's and numbers re: Profit Margins, earnings, Return On Equity etc etc, when IWL were at the same Market Cap as GBT is now, well GBT is that much better again, and IWL's numbers were not at all unrespectable that time, and history has proven IWL to be an excellent investment.....


So, yep, I agree .... that ---- GBT is one of my Loonong term(Bottom Drawer) Holds, together with shares like IBA, TRG, MMS, WCG, TWO, RIO, BHP, NHE, SIM, NEL, IFL,emi,wss, ocl, rmd, tox, pbd, ldw, kov, trs, tfs, itc, and coe....(few other secrets as well!!)

Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
30-01-2006, 04:03 PM
Commitments Test Entity - Second Quarter Report:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=174183

tommy
30-01-2006, 04:37 PM
Customers receipts increased to $7,116,000 from $6,390,000 last quarter (approx. 10% increase), and net operating cash flow improved to $1,640,000 from $901,000 (45% increase) although cash at end of quarter decreased to $3,736,000 from $7,701,000 due to acquisition of Palion.

Is there room for a profit upgrade[?]

tommy
16-02-2006, 02:49 PM
Great half-year results out! YEAH!

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=174572

___
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=174573

16 February, 2006

GBST delivers a 45% increase in earnings (EBITDA) for 1st half
FY2006


GBST Holdings Limited (ASX code: GBT), Australia’s largest provider of securities transaction technology, today announced its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2005.

Highlights
- Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) $3.8 million, up
45% on the prior comparative period (“pcp”),
- EBITDA margin improves to 31% of operating revenue, versus 24% in the pcp,
- Net profit after tax (NPAT) $2.6 million, up 50% on pcp,
- Net operating revenue $12.4 million, 12% higher than pcp,
- Acquisition of Palion broking business for $5.3 million, completed mid-December,
- New product licences from GBST Floats™, GBST Margin Lending Interface™ and a new Third Party Clearer.

Results Summary

Half year to 31 December
2006 2005 % increase
$’000 $’000
Normalised Results *
Operating Revenue 12,412 11,108 12%
Operating Expenditure (8,599) (8,474) 1%
EBITDA 3,813 2,634 45%

Reported Results
Profit before tax 3,704 1,758 111%
Income tax expense (1,073)
Profit after tax 2,631 1,758 50%
Basic EPS (cents) 5.98
Diluted EPS (cents) 5.92

*Comparative results for 2005 reflect normalised results under the Australian equivalents of International Financial Reporting Standards (AIFRS)

In announcing a 45% improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the half year, CEO and Managing Director, Stephen Lake, said he was pleased with the result, which reflected the momentum established within the business and growth in new lines of revenue.

“Over the last six months we have introduced more products into broker sites, such as GBST Floats™ and GBST Margin Lending Interface™, along with the addition of Citigroup Global Custody, a significant new third party clearer.” Mr Lake said.

“We continue to see growth in license revenues from buoyant equity trading conditions which is also resulting in increased interest from our clients in funding new product and software development projects. The effect of this growth in revenue and our continued focus on cost control has been an improvement in our EBITDA margin to 31% of operating revenue.” remarked Mr Lake.

In commenting on the acquisition of the Palion broking business during the half-year Mr Lake said “GBST’s acquisition of Palion settled on 15 December and although its contribution to profitability was immaterial in the first half we expect the business to make a strong contribution to EBITDA in the second half. The integration of the business is
proceeding according to plan and we have already started to see new sales across the merged client base.”

In relation to future product initiatives, Mr Lake said, “Many of our clients have expressed a strong interest in GBST WealthFront™, which is now in the final stages of development.

GBST WealthFront™ will allow advisers to increase efficiencies, manage their compliance risk and provide superior service to their clients, through the provision of an advanced wealth management platform. We plan to begin rolling this out in the second half of this
calendar year.”

“With strong operating cash flows, cash reserves of $3.7 million and no borrowings at 31 December, we are actively pursuing further growth opportunities as we see continuing consolidation in our sector.” he said.

The company does not propose to pay a dividend for the financial half-year to 31 December 2005 as a number of new opportunities are being evaluated and there is a current absence of available franking credits.

robbo
16-02-2006, 03:39 PM
GBST (GBT)

Thought you'd like this one Tommy.... !! :)[:p]

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

tommy
16-02-2006, 04:23 PM
Hi robbo,

Thanks for this tip mate, I have been steadily accumulating GBT and it now occupies a sizable chunk of my portfolio... great results for the 1st half and I expect the 2nd half results to be even better due to additional contribution from Palion[:p]

IMHO the stock is still extremely cheap in terms of PE ratio at these levels... illiquidity is the only downside of GBT, but happy to hold on to it for the medium/long run.

When will it start to skyrocket? Isn't the latest announcement good enough to spark a healthy rise? Perhaps the zero dividend wasn't so well received.
In any case, GBT deserves far more than a mere 4% increase in share price!

tommy
17-02-2006, 04:47 PM
Wow up 11% today so far, reaching new high[:p] It's about time GBT gets some attention!!

Very tightly held, sell side still thin... these price levels will look very cheap when the next full-year results are announced. IMHO, Downside risk is still minimal at this price level (provided you put up with illiquidity and have a medium/long term investment horizon!)

robbo
17-02-2006, 06:15 PM
GBT Gbst

Hi Ya Tommy,

Glad you gotta onto this one...

Did you also get The Pub's.... quiet Mc Millan Shakespeare...MMS thoughtline...;). Tommy..?

IMO, for an idea of the potential see the Market Cap and alst w2 months or so of Share Price Increase of IWL.... (another one of The Pub's faves, in a similar Niche...)...

Would think that north of $4.25 by this time,
next Friday is the go... ... :)[:p]

Will be knocking back a few more crownies if that comes up trumps; bec with divies etc that will be about 60% miniumum.... imo.... in 2.5 months..... enough to re stock a good...... 1/10th .... of the Crownie Pubs ... rather large Cellars......

- errrr.... Is a quiet vage word Tommy ??--, among a few of the celubrious ravers, ....here at the Pub's Newly renovated Dart Board with Chesterfield leather antique lounge recliners-- Saloon area...., here at the crownie; that things are afoot ...... that could do something hopefuly positive ......for BGT liquidity and BGT share spread etc.. .. THAT the Rooomer is ... maybe also Earnings accretive and postive, so all may auger well, accourding to the rumble ehre at the Darts jungle today.......

So, it's .....Crownies all round......

....and of copurse three big cheers for Gbst.. GT)

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

robbo
20-02-2006, 05:06 PM
GBST (GBT)

Hi to all on the Sharetrader "G" Force Express .....

Is that a very large Gbst (GBT) Undisclosed Buyer "in the depth top Line" that..... I see stalking away...??? ;)[:p]

If so, might actually "hit the G-Spot heh what...!! - [:I][:o)][:I]

-- hmmmmm... nice and interesting,

Kindest Regards,

robbo :)

tommy
20-02-2006, 05:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by davidrob

GBST (GBT)

Hi to all on the Sharetrader "G" Force Express .....

Is that a very large Gbst (GBT) Undisclosed Buyer "in the depth top Line" that..... I see stalking away...??? ;)[:p]

If so, might actually "hit the G-Spot heh what...!! - [:I][:o)][:I]

-- hmmmmm... nice and interesting,

Kindest Regards,

robbo :)


Hi robbo!

I saw that undisclosed amount/buy in the depth too, though I do not know the significance???? Any ideas mate?

Anyway, the only way is up for GBT from here on, loving the steady increase since the announcement[:p] What's your price target for GBT robbo, I have a feeling $2 is not so far off considering the tightly-held nature of this stock!!

robbo
20-02-2006, 06:40 PM
GBST (GBT)

Hi Tommy,

Great to hear from you ....

Again !!

I am hearing two main price points....at $2.20-25 and the other is #$2.40.....

A bit may possibly -- depend ..... on whether Gbst (GBT)do another earnings accretive acquisition or find away also to get a bit more share spread.....and consequent liquidity ??....

So the next 2-3 months for Gbst could be interesting indeed...

Kindest Regards Tommy,

Robbo:)

tommy
20-02-2006, 07:00 PM
Thanks for your reply robbo, highly appreciate your opinion as always[:I]

Their half-year report did say that "The company does not propose to pay a dividend for the financial half-year to 31 December 2005 as a number of new opportunities are being evaluated and there is a current absence of available franking credits."

So it will be of no surprise if they did go for an acquisition... but as for the liquidity, are you suggesting a possible share-split or a placement? Or perhaps GBT can spin off one of its divisions...

Whatever the case, I hope it doesn't result in dilution of shareholder value! I quite like the fact that its share price is not at the mercy of day traders!

tommy
23-02-2006, 04:36 PM
GBT down 6% today after a strong run, albeit on small volumes... buy side thin, profit takers getting the upper hand now?

Meanwhile, directors are topping up so prospects should be brighter at GBT[:p]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=174767

robbo
23-02-2006, 05:00 PM
Hi Tommy,

It is, imo, times like THIS .... when you have a nonsensical little 6% dip-- just an aberation imo, after so much of a strong solid climb, (Profit Takers imo) that imo so often sorts out the "worry warts" and supposed "market timers"--- from the Investors who take the Broader View....

- "Director buying"-- is so often also a very good "money where the mouth is" -- sign as well, imo.....

Know of course Tommy..... that you are not in the former camp!![:I]

Cheers and good posts,

Regards,

robbo:)

tommy
23-02-2006, 05:11 PM
Hi Robbo,

Agree that 6% drop is nothing and I have no intention of selling any GBT shares until the next full-year results are out, because this is IMHO one of the cheapest stocks around in terms of P/E ratio despite its phenomenal growth record;)

I have faith in this company/management, and I have been accumulating and now constitutes a quarter of my portfolio (followed by TRS, of course[:I])

Eagerly waiting for GBT to reach $100 million market cap, so that the dynamics will change even more...

Robbo, I hate to tell you this but I am actually a worry-wart when it comes to stocks that are at the mercy of day-traders (like ENG and SEN), I haven't acquired that art of calm and peaceful meditation on top of crownie crates like you have[}:)] I tend to take lock-in some profits (stop-loss) whenever I feel a change in market sentiment. So far so good this year though!

robbo
01-03-2006, 05:33 PM
Gbst GBT

Start of a nice little correction Tommy ?? :)[:p]

Hope and think so...although volumes too thin to Really tell yet.....

Kind Regards,

robbo:)

tommy
02-03-2006, 05:34 PM
Hi robbo,

What correction?! I'm not selling any of my shares until they hit at least $2.50!! Very tightly held so it can easily go up, I am convinced that GBT might turn into a multi-bagger in a few years time.

Directors indirectly bought up more GBT shares according to latest announcement today, good sign or what[:I] My portfolio is now extremely heavily exposed to GBT... would like to buy even more but gotta make money out of ENG first;)

robbo
02-03-2006, 06:43 PM
GBT gbst

That is the spirit!!

You are sounding more like me with every week that slips by Tommy !!

Like you Tommy, have no reason to feel that GBST will be not unlike say TRS or IBA style of solid good small cap growth.

As an initial prediction//best guess, from the call on this thread, in November at around $1.20 when I entered, reckon that this up coming November ought to see us just nudging or.... even just topping the $3.00 number....:) with a Platform from which imo Gbst will continue to grow solidly in 2007.

Great as always to see and hear you doing so well.

BTW Tommy, did you manage to either get onto MMS,BOL, CNA or IPN ?--

If not that is ALSO really, imo, a good sign, coz we cannot and must not try to kiss all the girls !! [:I][:I]

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

tommy
03-03-2006, 01:46 PM
Hi robbo,

GBT Analyst briefing is out, check it out:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=GBT&E=ASX&N=174984

Particularly liked their statement:
"Results for 2H ’FY06 expected to exceed 1H ’FY06
based on current levels market activity"!!!!
and
"Continued focus on acquisition opportunities that;
- Increase customer base in financial markets,
- Improve revenue diversification,
- Move GBST to adjacent markets"!!!

Are we the only ones holding GBT? I can't kiss all the girls you recommended robbo but I am certainly going to remain loyal to this girl
[:I]

robbo
03-03-2006, 06:21 PM
Hi ya Tommy,

Looks like the Market liked it too !

GBT up yet Another 4 % again today.... [:p]

Kind Regards,

Robbo:)

robbo
16-03-2006, 04:43 PM
Gbst Holdings (GBT)

Coming now out of a nice double cup with handles....(I think)
and so question is: Will GBT break $2.00?

Regards,

Robbo

tommy
16-03-2006, 05:17 PM
Hi robbo,

IMHO it's only a matter of time for GBT to reach $2, I think a company like GBT cannot possibly continue to have a market cap of less than $100 million!

I'm going to hold, hold, and continue holding GBT until the entire world wakes up to it, not going to sell a single share until the year-end announcement;)

tommy
17-03-2006, 03:29 PM
GBT reaches $2, I'm sitting on 40% paper profit now[:p]

This stock is still undervalued at the current PE level!

robbo
17-03-2006, 04:51 PM
Gbst (GBT)

ahem....Pub Staff --- are currently.....clearing a space for those Cartons Crownies you are sending over as we speak Tommy ....! [:p];)

Kind Regards, (andavagoodweekend...)

Robbo:)

tommy
22-03-2006, 01:26 PM
GBT sell side is virtually non-existent now, no one seems to want to sell this stock (including myself!)

Is the share price ready to double in first year of listing???
Keeping my fingers crossed, the only way is up;)

http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=gbt&x=0&y=0

P.S. Robbo, you deserve not a carton but a barrel of crownies for opening this thread mate :) Keep up the good "multi-bagger" work!

David Hardman
22-03-2006, 01:33 PM
Tommy/Robbo

Came across this in my travels

Blogger talking about his investment in GBT

http://spaces.msn.com/kerishd/Blog/cns!99072FE0FB680A5E!530.entry

tommy
22-03-2006, 02:36 PM
Thanks Dave for the info, will check it out[:I]

tommy
28-04-2006, 04:59 PM
Hi ROBBO!

Still holding GBT?

GBT records reaches all-time high with virtually non-existent sell side[:p] The chunk I bought last year has now swelled to occupy 30% of my portfolio[:0]

http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=gbt&x=0&y=0

Almost ready to hit that magic $100 million market cap to attract more insto attention, but this is an extremely illiquid, tightly held stock that's hard to get in...

Still reasonably priced at these levels, I'm gonna hold, hold and hold until the snow ball compounds into a snow man[8D]

robbo
28-04-2006, 08:29 PM
Gbst (GBT)

Hi Tommy,

Still always love those two words that I abreviate to the Chemical like test for water alkalanity....
Namely the P.H. test.

P: of course is for "Patience"..... (....and sleeping.... in..... the PUB's hammock ......sucking crisp cold crownios... with lime wedgies stuffed in the neck of the bottle....[8D][8D]

H: is for "Hold"

this one is self explanatory.

As J.P. Morgan said.... "Stocks do go up, and Stocks do go down, and Stocks go up again and Stocks then......go down again...."

Took a while for the peeny to drop behind the obvious banality of this quote....

ie: Motal is.... "so what..."

Eventually Market and Value will eventually.... some day....:

" get aquainted"---- as the Texans say.....

Also loe that concept that Capital eventually ahs to be paid gof, at the relevant reisk premium above the Government Bond Rate....

When you finally "get" that sentence.... it is worth ....a few million imo....!!

Final thought is top learn the art (not science) of divergent perception "inflection" .... but now we are getting a bit deep!!

So I'll say ave-a-good-weekend-- Tommy-- Love your great research and ideas...Kepp up the fabulous articles and research....

And Yes Tommy, of course am still on BRO and Gbst, and many other much under valued shares of Real Earnings related businesses besides !! :):)

Really great as usual hearing from you Tommy.....

Kindest Regards Tommy,

Robbo:)

tommy
28-04-2006, 10:30 PM
Thanks for the reply Robbo, good to hear from ya too!

Shame it's only us that are holding GBT on this forum though... thought this would be an obvious multi-bagger pick[:o)]

I'm still not a master of that "PH test", great concept but obviously I haven't had enough crownies like you to see da light i.e. the art of investment through patient holding!

Most of the time I can't help hitting that SELL button to collect some profits here and there when a stock jumps 20% or 30% when the market sentiment changes... the only stocks I have not collected profits in the event of any price rise are TRS and GBT, and true, these two are doing VERY well through compounding so there is some truth in the PH theory[:p]

Keep up the good work mate, and keep on sharing info on more multibaggers ;)

corky
02-05-2006, 11:24 AM
Tommy

I'm on this one too - and what a beautiful little announcement this morning. Is that you with a sale at $5 Tommy? :)

Corky

robbo
02-05-2006, 11:56 AM
Gbst (GBT)

Up an nice 20% based on the QuaretrlyResults released today....
And that is on a market down day...... :)

Regards,
Robbo:)

tommy
02-05-2006, 02:36 PM
Hi Corky and Robbo,

Yeah, what a spectacular announcement! $100 million market cap, here we come!

GBT seriously deserves a much higher PE ratio though.
Let's see whether we can hit $3 by the time the year-end results are out. Sell side still thin, no one wants to sell (including myself)... it's so tightly held. What a safe growth stock, expanding business, plenty of cash and zero debt!!

2nd May, 2006
Earnings update Q3 FY2006
EBITDA up 63% for the 9 months to 31 March 2006

GBST (GBT), Australia’s largest provider of securities transaction technology, is pleased to announce its unaudited results for the 9 months ended 31 March 2006,

- Operating revenues of $19.26 million up 14.7% on the prior comparative period (“pcp”),
- EBITDA of $6.3 million up 63% on the pcp,
- Results driven by new business, increased consulting revenue and continued growth in equities trading volume,
- Trading volume market share increases to 40% from 32% in the pcp,
- Cash reserves of $8.7 million and no borrowings.

Results Summary
$'000
Qtr 3 YTD
FY'06 FY'05 % Inc. FY'06 FY'05 % Inc.
Operating Revenue
6,853
5,681 21%
19,265
16,789 14.7%
Operating Expenses
4,368
4,457 -2%
12,967
12,928 0.3%
EBITDA
2,485
1,224 103.0%
6,298
3,861 63.1%
EBITDA Margin 32.7% 23.0%

CEO Mr Stephen Lake said: 'This strong result – with Q3 EBITDA up 103 per cent over Q3 of 2005 – validates our strategy to reinforce our position through continuing product improvement and to broaden our product range and customer base through selected acquisitions.

'Our 21 per cent increase in Q3 revenue reflects new business, buoyant equity trading, increased consulting activity and the contribution of the Palion derivatives business acquired in December. At the end of March approximately 40 per cent of ASX equity trading volume was processed by GBST clients, up from 32 per cent last year. We also succeeded in holding costs stable, which saw our operating margin increase to 32.7 per cent.’

'Cash flow from operations remained strong and our cash reserves grew to $8.7 million at 31 March, partly due to prepayment of customer license fees. The company has no debt.

'Prospects for the remainder of calendar 2006 are encouraging, with a strong pipeline of software development projects and the introduction of a new product scheduled for the second half of the year.'
GBST is announcing its Q3 results so the market is aware of its earnings growth, especially following the recent acquisition of Palion.

- ENDS -
About GBST
Established in 1983, GBST (Global Banking and Securities Transactions) is the largest provider of securities transaction processing in Australia and a leading provider of transaction solutions for the financial services industry.
Specialising in the provision of robust trading and settlement systems, GBST changed the face of the industry in 1993 when it released GBST Shares™, the first system to fully integrate with CHESS, the Australian Stock Exchange’s electronic settlement system.

Working with our clients, GBST has facilitated a number of market firsts including: automated clearing and settlement, third party clearing and real time Margin Lending.

GBST provides solutions for a wide variety of market participants including: global investment banks, custodians, clearers, stockbrokers, exchanges, margin lenders, and cash management providers.

With offices in Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne, GBST has over 130 staff committed to providing advanced transaction solutions.

OneUp
23-06-2006, 02:24 PM
GBT is highly leveraged to changes in revenue, which depend on trading volumes. So far this year volumes have been strong - and the question is whether this will continue.

Any data on how volumes are holding up in the wake of the commodities market decline? Or is Q4 generally seasonally a bit slower due to tax loss selling (and lower share prices)?

EBITDA Revenue Expenses
Q1: 1.75 6.0 4.27
Q2: 2.06 6.4 4.33
Q3: 2.49 6.86 4.37
Q4: ???

David Hardman
23-06-2006, 02:37 PM
GBST - No thanks

GBST is going to suffer from increased competition in the near future.

GBST don't have the best reputation in the market. In fact none of the players in the ASX space do. By all accounts their SHARES platform is a dog. Its only through lack of any real alternatives that they still manage to make money from it.

Rumor has it that SSS, a very successful NZ settlements vendor is about to enter the Australian market. They have managed to pickup 6 NZ broking firms over the last few years. I'd expect them to target the aussie brokers soon.

Check this
http://sss.co.nz/software/securitease/securitease.htm

"SecuritEase® clients process 45% of the NZSX equity market (about twice the volume of any other system) and 63% of the NZDX debt market.
(Source NZX, trades 1 April 2005 to 30 June 2005) "

"The SecuritEase® system's number one ranking has been gained at the expense of all other vendors in the NZ market. None has felt the competitive pressure as much as GBST Shares, losing virtually all of its market share to SecuritEase®."

tommy
23-06-2006, 03:59 PM
Thanks for the info Dave,

Really appreciate your post here because I didn't even know the existence of SecuritEase®[:0]

From what I can gather SSS is not listed on ASX, is it?

As for the statement:
"The SecuritEase® system's number one ranking has been gained at the expense of all other vendors in the NZ market. None has felt the competitive pressure as much as GBST Shares, losing virtually all of its market share to SecuritEase®."

I wasn't even aware that GBT had a large market share in New Zealand in the first place. Can you verify this?

David Hardman
23-06-2006, 05:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by tommy

Thanks for the info Dave,

Really appreciate your post here because I didn't even know the existence of SecuritEase®[:0]

From what I can gather SSS is not listed on ASX, is it?

As for the statement:
"The SecuritEase® system's number one ranking has been gained at the expense of all other vendors in the NZ market. None has felt the competitive pressure as much as GBST Shares, losing virtually all of its market share to SecuritEase®."

I wasn't even aware that GBT had a large market share in New Zealand in the first place. Can you verify this?


SSS - Privatly owned as far as I know

GBST NZ market share - They were a major player in the NZ market. Prolly was not a major part of their revenue.

SSS is a real *long term threat* to GBST aussie business. They have proven track record in NZ with some large clients. Aussie brokers are always looking for alternatives but none have been up to it. SSS may provide them the solution.

tommy
23-06-2006, 05:20 PM
Thanks for your reply Dave,

Always good to know what's happening in the industry in order to make an informed, objective decision.

I think this financial year GBT will do great due to its Palion acquisition but as you said, competition from next year onwards might become a real threat.

I will keep my eyes and ears wide open, but let us know when you pick up more "noise" like this:)

tommy
03-07-2006, 02:30 PM
Hi robbo, Davidhardman and other GBT watchers,

Confirmed GBT's market loss to SSS in NZ as davidhardman kindly pointed out, sounds like a geniune threat.

Contacted IR at GBT about it and...mmm, that has to be by far the worst IR staff I have ever spoken to in my life, might as well call it investor non-relations:(

So, I have significantly reduced my GBT holdings lately because I don't invest in companies that refuse to talk to shareholders. Things might be okay at GBT but I'd rather take my money to companies that are willing to clarify their positioning to shareholders. If your IR experience has been different, I would like to know.

Thanks GBT, collected 70% profits[:I]

Still hold a small parcel but constantly revising whether it is worth holding... there are too many good deals in the market at the moment[8)]

Do your own research as always!

corky
08-08-2006, 11:06 PM
Be interesting to see if there is any follow through buying tomorrow after today's ann. Q4 EBITDA was $2.72m maintaining the nice trend. Plenty of hints about acquisitions in the blurb which might increase negative sentiment to go with teh competition threat.

Still holding
Corky

tommy
08-08-2006, 11:58 PM
Hi corky,

Yup, I read that great announcement too, GBT continues to deliver as expected. I have sold out though, simply because the IR staff was a rude xxxxhole, didn't want my dough to contribute to a company that disses their shareholders:( Good luck to holders, but remember, GBT revenue is dependent on trading volumes.

robbo
10-10-2006, 03:13 PM
gbst (GBT)

And that's about 1 nice Full Bag of: Red, Black and White .... gbst.....

....>> ... Tasty Jellie Beans -- [:p] or a 100% Capital Gain -- [:p]plus ++ of course the two (2) healthy Div Payments -- being 4 Cents per share-- or about 4% Fully Franked-- for us Gbst (GBT) Investors.!!

And this gbst (GBT) thread was started -- here at The PUB -- exactly about..... only--- 10.3 months ago .... !!:)

Nice work -- is.... this "Snoozing on the Hammock" ---- concept-- [|)]:)--with what I sorta felt .....

..... Was always a nice & easy: 'sleep easy --'set and forget' --High Margin of Safety'-- as has it proved -- Juicy intrinsic Value Investement"--

So.... congrats and Kindest Regards, (to all Gbst investors)

Robbo :)

mamos
10-10-2006, 04:08 PM
Thanks for the tip Robbo. I got on this back at $1.40 and bought when the NZ$ was at 94c to the AUD. Just received the dividend the other day.

Am still holding.

Will see how the trading volumes are looking at the half year mark before I make a decision whether to sell.

What I like about this one is the scalability of its operations in that processing more contract notes has very little effect on expenses.

Cheers

Mark

corky
25-10-2006, 11:32 PM
Hit the $3 today, up from $1.28 in less than a year (riding a Robbo rocket). AGM next week - outlook comments will be interesting.

Corky

robbo
26-10-2006, 12:18 PM
gbst (GBT)

Great post corky, .....hope ....'you & yours' are all fine & well....

(GBST.... imo..(as loing as the fundamentals keep staying right-- will always be a fund manager/insto :)'darling' imo corky.

Great news for gbst (GBT) holders hey...?!....:)

btw IWL is starting to also look again of interest from 'where I sit'.

Kindest Regards,

Robbo:)

corky
31-10-2006, 10:14 PM
From the CEO at the AGM today:
'we have looked at more than a dozen other companies.....I would hope within the next 6 months I can talk more about this.'

'..we have cash reserves of some $12 and we believe this is justified at the moment'

'...mindful of lack of liquidity....three major continuing shareholders to undertake a placement of some of our stock to a small number of institutions.'

Do you think we could expect an acquisition?

Corky;)

robbo
01-11-2006, 12:36 PM
gbst.. (GBT)

Hi Corky,

Answer...to your question probably 'yes'.... (75% +)-- [?]

Gbst is travelling very well... wcich is excellent.

Regards,

Robbo :)

robbo
03-11-2006, 02:04 PM
GBST (GBT)

For investors like me, who still like (GBT) just thought a qucik note/comment ... on one of the developments ....recently....

One of the founding (GBT) directors, sold down 17% of his GBST holding to Institional longer term (presumably--??)- [?] investors.... see ASX gbst announcement for 23/8/06 and today again -- 3/11/06--...

Normally this might be percevied as a red warning flag.
I actualy see it otherwise...

Will add more insto support and liquidity to (GBT) over the medium term is my own view....

GBST(GBT) is up another few percent today-- and is up over 115% -- :)--not including fully franked income divs ....in last approx 10 months...

Kindest Regards,

Robbo :)

corky
20-02-2007, 01:34 PM
Nice reaction to the recent results. Looks like a bit of re-rating - or could there be more to it? Slide 13 of the investor presentation was interesting - 'move GBST to adjacent markets' 'targeting scale businesses that ..... increase product set'.

Corky

David Hardman
20-02-2007, 02:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by corky

Nice reaction to the recent results. Looks like a bit of re-rating - or could there be more to it? Slide 13 of the investor presentation was interesting - 'move GBST to adjacent markets' 'targeting scale businesses that ..... increase product set'.

Corky


GBST have been trying to get into the market data space for a while.

Suspect this is where they will be focusing their efforts.

Take market share off Iress.

robbo
20-02-2007, 06:23 PM
gbst (GBT)

HI Dave

apart from Perpetual--looks like Turnbull and his Funds Friends-- Mgt group --moved today onto the gbst regsiter.

Robbo :)

David Hardman
02-08-2007, 01:50 PM
GBST in trading halt.. pending material transaction.

Takeover maybe.

If so then my money is on CBA buying them.

CBA announced that they bought IWL yesterday.

IWL is a GBST shop.

mamos
02-08-2007, 02:28 PM
Think you are right David. Exactly same wording was used for the IWL acquisition yesterday.

I used to hold both (now just IWL) and very much like GBST. Was awaiting re-entry after selling out just below $3. CBA is really looking to expand into the wholesale broking sector and market clearing.

What do you think about the IWL acquisition?


quote:Originally posted by David Hardman

GBST in trading halt.. pending material transaction.

Takeover maybe.

If so then my money is on CBA buying them.

CBA announced that they bought IWL yesterday.

IWL is a GBST shop.

mamos
03-08-2007, 04:40 PM
Interesting to see it was an acquisition and not a takeover by CBA.

Jaa
17-07-2009, 05:12 PM
Nothing for a couple of years on this one. Seems to be in better shape than BVA. At least its recent/current capital raising is an awful lot cheaper and less dilutive!

Anyone still holding? Prospects can't be what they were but strong ongoing annuity income stream appeals.

mark100
13-02-2014, 01:01 PM
I've been trading GBT for a while now. I thought the result was excellent and ahead of expectations. Note cash earnings are much higher than reported earnings due to the high (but falling) amortisation charge.

At $3 it's probably trading at around 15x FY14 cash EPS with a high percentage of recurring earnings. GBT also benefits from the falling A$. Statutory ROE is in the high teens. Cash ROE is around 26%

mark100
10-04-2014, 12:19 PM
Bit of a breakout happening here

mark100
10-04-2014, 01:59 PM
Looking a bit more promising. $3.50 appears to have been the resistance line in the past, so if it can move beyond it a new leg up may have begun. Have recently exited NEA and MTU so looking for some new contenders :-)

MTU chart looks terrible at the moment but there should be value at current prices. Cash flow wasn't great in the interim though and with its current debt pile the full year better show a CF improvement.

mark100
11-04-2014, 11:43 AM
Bit of a breakout happening here

What the ASX gives the DJIA takes away all because twitter and facebook trade on a PE of almost infinity.

Looks like we're still stuck in the trading range. I'm quite loaded with GBT having really increased my holding after the interim result.

mark100
11-04-2014, 04:42 PM
Until the market settles I'm not buying anything. Other than my new house :-)

Did you know that the last time I sold up my portfolio to settle a property purchase was in 2007, just before the GFC? Isnt that spooky possums! You read it here first - KW's property purchase contrarian indicator predicts market crash again!

Yeah it was a bit similar for me in 2007, reduced share portfolio for a property purchase. In hindsight, the property hasn't done that much since while my share returns are a multiple of where they stood in 2007 even including the GFC.

When I look at a chart of the ASX I don't see a crash, we are just getting back to a very long term trend line. US techs are another matter and they obviously will make things volatile for us. I also think some ASX tech stocks ie ICQ, IPP to name a couple went mad and needed to fall

noodles
11-04-2014, 07:03 PM
The old saying "when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold" comes to mind. Wait and see how the US pans out, then whether the Aus market follows. Interesting movement in QID (ETF) in the US - seems the smart money began shorting the NASDAQ back in March. Its almost in a confirmed uptrend, which would suggest NASDAQ about to enter a confirmed downtrend. Keep an eye on it.

wow, check out the volume of the QID since mid-jan. Looks as if there was a switch flicked on.
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=QID#symbol=QID;range=5y

mark100
18-08-2014, 12:34 PM
Solid result here. Like HFA, GBT has been one where the value has been masked by a large amortisation charge. Cash earnings are much higher than Stat

steve fleming
18-08-2014, 10:44 PM
Solid result here. Like HFA, GBT has been one where the value has been masked by a large amortisation charge. Cash earnings are much higher than Stat

Mark, do you think all this talk around variances between cash and NPAT is a big a deal as has been made out on other sites?

Surely any decent analysis would be focusing on EBITDA?

you would hope that there are only a small number of fundamental investors out there who base their investment decisions by just looking at statutory NPAT!

mark100
20-08-2014, 12:23 AM
Mark, do you think all this talk around variances between cash and NPAT is a big a deal as has been made out on other sites?

Surely any decent analysis would be focusing on EBITDA?

you would hope that there are only a small number of fundamental investors out there who base their investment decisions by just looking at statutory NPAT!

Hi sf, You're right, it sure has been talked about a lot on the other sites lately...

I'm actually not a great fan of just looking at EBITDA although it has its place. I feel during bull markets investors start looking for ways to justify higher valuations and using EV/EBITDA ratios can often achieve this.

There is EBITDA and there is EBITDA in my view. I view some Dep and Amortisation as very real cash expenses. For example when a company is continually spending cash on equipment and software that has a limited life. On the other hand, some amortisation is really just a bulls!t expense when it has come about via an acquisition. ie management rights / customer relationships etc.

When goodwill is created on acquisition, some of the goodwill will simply just recorded as 'goodwill'. This is not amortised unless it is impaired and thus no tax deduction is achieved. So it is in a companies interest to split some of the goodwill created on acquisition into both goodwill and other classifications such as customer relationships/management rights/acquired client portfolios etc. Some of these types of intangibles can be tax deductible when they are amortised.

So you could have the case of two companies with the same EBITDA but a large difference in free cash flow because one is simply amortising intangibles created via a past acquisition while the other is continually spending cash on software systems with a limited life and amortising it.

For this reason I prefer Cash NPAT where I add back only the amortisation component that really is a non-recurring cash flow expense. In the case of GBT, they disclose that they add back 'Investment Amortisation' to derive Cash NPAT which is intangibles acquired through acquisition. Operating Amortisation is not added back.

steve fleming
20-08-2014, 08:41 AM
Thanks Mark, nicely explained.

I guess my point is, does this actually create an arbitrage opportunity?

I.e. Is the market (or investors collectively) so basic, that it prices stocks just based on stat NPAt, such that there is a re-rate as the non-recurring charges unwind?

Or can the market see through the non-recurring charges, and already prices it accordingly?

There may be a small number of less informed retail investors who just look at historical PEs, but obviously institutional investors are going to do more than just look at the historical PE reported in a newspaper, so i struggle to believe that the market is that in-efficient that there is much of an opportunity to take advantage of this cash/stat NPAT discrepancy?

mark100
20-08-2014, 11:29 AM
I don't think there is a definite answer. For some of the micro-small caps I think it can make a difference. In the case of RDH, I had never taken much notice of the stock. It was only when Pie took a position I dug further and noticed the run off of amortisation was going to reverse a loss in the future year (albeit they've had good revenue growth as well this year).

CIX is another I hold where within their amortisation charge there is around $1m/year (over 10% of NPAT) that will run-off in around 3 years. CIX don't highlight this in any of their reports and I doubt the market is ascribing much value to it. The WHTM broker that covers them does not add it back!

Also in some interim reports companies don't provide a full set of notes so you can't see how much of the amortisation is recurring or non-recurring.

In the case of HFA, I think most of the re-rating has been due to the removal of the Convertible Note overhang.

Then when you get to some of the mid caps like AUB, well covered by brokers etc which they clearly report cash NPAT. So no confusion and/or opportunity there.

Westboy
28-08-2014, 10:37 PM
Lots of opportunities in the small cap space Steven Fleming where cashlow is materially different to NPAT!

And agree with Matt, EBITDA is a terrible number to use, as Warren Buffet says does the tooth fairy pay to maintain your capital investment?

mark100
28-08-2014, 11:59 PM
Welcome to sharetrader Westboy. After reading your first 3 posts I think you may post a bit on another site I follow..

mark100
13-02-2015, 11:06 AM
Delivers again. That should break it out of the trading range

Joshuatree
07-08-2015, 03:54 PM
Reporting next wed. Anyone holding and what are you expecting? Looking pretty weak chart wise under the 60 and nearing 180DMA.

NZSilver
11-08-2015, 11:46 AM
Yes JT i've been watching this stock for a few month now, looking for an opportunity to buy. I did so at 5.20 on the 7/8. Chart is looking weak but i think the result should be good. There is also benefits from lower AUD. Also plenty of growth potential and it sounds like their software is well regarded. Also I have been watching Aconex, it just kept going up, I was going to wait until escrow shares came up but after its latest announcement I bought - should have bought earlier.

mark100
11-08-2015, 01:52 PM
Yes also holding although only around half my original peak holding after dropping a fair few off in the $6.30s. Have picked up a few around these levels but prefer to wait until I see the report. I don't think there is much question around tomorrow's report, but rather FY16. Morgans, the most bearish broker covering them, thinks FY16 will be a tougher year for growth. They think expansion in the overseas business will struggle to cover the loss of a couple of clients in Aust (BBY went under and they lost a contract with Pershing). I am more optimistic but we'll have to wait and see.
On a relative basis I think GBT is not bad value down here compared with some other listed software plays. IRI for example has reported very up and down profits yet its PE is well above GBT. Some others with no profit yet have a market cap > than GBT.

DarkHorse
11-08-2015, 09:24 PM
Hi Mark, since I find your analysis excellent and you mentioned IRI which I hold, would be interested to hear any other thoughts you have about them :) (no posts on their thread for 18m)

NZSilver
12-08-2015, 12:26 PM
Results are out today, better than I expected. Nice 8% increase in share price on open.

Entrep
15-02-2017, 08:34 AM
Did any one stay in these guys? Taken another hammering of late.