NPX Chart

[Dr_Who]

There could be abit of selling once those rights converts to shares tomorrow. A capital gain of 30-40% is a very good profit in this market.

[Balance]

There could be abit of selling once those rights converts to shares tomorrow. A capital gain of 30-40% is a very good profit in this market.

Agreed.

However, the gains are only for those who bought the rights in the market and for the institutions who get their shares at 23 cents. The rest are still nursing horrendous losses and the share price need to recover a lot more before they break even.

[Lego_Man]

This stock is worth less than 1/10th of what i paid for it so i can be excused for not really caring about what happens from here on. I just wrote out my cheque for the rights issue and can now go back to forgetting about them.

[macduffy]

This stock is worth less than 1/10th of what i paid for it so i can be excused for not really caring about what happens from here on. I just wrote out my cheque for the rights issue and can now go back to forgetting about them.

That will involve resisting the temptation to read posts on this NPX thread!

;)

Personally, I managed to salvage something from the wreckage by picking up a couple of parcels of cheap rights.
Hmmm.... I may need to lock in a bit of profit by taking doctor's advice and selling some of them.

[Dr_Who]

It would be interesting to see if that 15% option finds its way back into the market in the next few days.

[Balance]

That will involve resisting the temptation to read posts on this NPX thread!

;)

Personally, I managed to salvage something from the wreckage by picking up a couple of parcels of cheap rights.
Hmmm.... I may need to lock in a bit of profit by taking doctor's advice and selling some of them.

You need to sell them today before the hordes get their 556m new shares at 23 cents tomorrow!

[Dr_Who]

NPX director sold rights

566m + 99m = 665m extra rights converted to shares today.

Will be interesting to see how many of those come onto the market this week for some profit taking.

[whatsup]

Dropping like a stone, ****e Boo Hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[biker]

Dropping like a stone, ****e Boo Hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


To be expected I would have thought. Some short term profit takers giving some longer term profit takers the opportunity to buy cheap.

[Balance]

Dropping like a stone, ****e Boo Hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good stuff!

[Dr_Who]

I think the 15% options converted may find itself back onto the market if the sp is substantially above the 23 cents they paid for it.

[Bilo]

I think the 15% options converted may find itself back onto the market if the sp is substantially above the 23 cents they paid for it.
Surely the big issue is how many of the 99M additional shares First Capital give away to their underwriting mates? Or is it already factored in that they will issue the whole lot?

[Dr_Who]

Trading Halt.

Anyone guess whats it about?

[Tanger]

Surely the call option being exercised and confirming the number of shares to be issued (my bet is it is the full 99m). I think they had 3 days to exercise once the other shares were issued. So timing seems right.

[nwood]

Surely the call option being exercised and confirming the number of shares to be issued (my bet is it is the full 99m). I think they had 3 days to exercise once the other shares were issued. So timing seems right.

My bet is on that too

[Bilo]

Trading Halt.

Anyone guess whats it about?

The NZX just we up to their responsibilities as market supervisors. How could they let the shares remain trading while insiders had such privileged positions?

[macduffy]

It's not as if anyone's in any doubt as to what will happen.

With the SP at 33c and the Call Option shares to be issued at 23c, does anyone seriously think the full option amount won't be taken up?

;)

[whatsup]

Halt lifted at 2.15 pm, additional shares issued at .27 now not .23 ,,, good or bad?

[biker]

Good.
The market seems happy with it.
Another 26.7 Mil in the coffers, 17% more than the origional plan.
27c isnt too far away from my average buy in price which wasn't too difficult to achieve.
The SP may be a bit soft for a while until the short term sellers have gone.
Roll on the recovery.

[macduffy]

Now that is a turn up for the books!

The Underwriter was entitled to have the shares placed at 23c so it's a positive for the company and for all shareholders. SP has responded by lifting 2c to 35c.

:)

[Balance]

Reminds me of RBD when big placement was made at 57 cents after sp had traded as high as 69 cents. Some investors took a quick 5% to 20% profit but institutions took the opportunity to increase their shareholdings at a good entry price buying off the flippers. Today RBD is 92 cents, one of the best performers in the market.

Volume going through suggest institutions are buying.

[Balance]

ACC and Orbis both increasing their shareholdings. Looks like institutions competing for stock as not enough from rights issue. Good sign.

Dis. Happy holder.

[Dr_Who]

It seems like someone is drip feeding NPX. The sp have gone up over 60% from the rights price of 23 cents. Surely the people that got in at a discount must be looking at some profit taking.

[macduffy]

It seems like someone is drip feeding NPX. The sp have gone up over 60% from the rights price of 23 cents. Surely the people that got in at a discount must be looking at some profit taking.

The volume of rights traded was never particularly high so most of the shares were taken up by existing holders - apart, that is from the sub-underwriters who participated in the 27c "top up".
I would think that most of those "existing holders" are happy to hold their averaged down shares now that NPX has sorted out it's financing. As the bloke from AMP indicated recently, there is a good appetite from instos for what they perceive to be attractively priced issues by the likes of NPX, FBU, SKC and Freightways.

[Balance]

Institutions are picking up stock from the traders and weak holders. So far Orbis and ACC have disclosed that they have been buying. NPX has informed the market that they have attracted new long term shareholders through the underwrite.

[The BOWMAN]

It seems like someone is drip feeding NPX. The sp have gone up over 60% from the rights price of 23 cents. Surely the people that got in at a discount must be looking at some profit taking.

I purchased NPX at $0.80 to get the rights and now sitting with a good profit on paper. But what is the benefit of profit taking if I can't purchase anything considerablly better than NPX? I think the building sector is about to take off. Bought quite a bit FBU and NPX now.

[Dr_Who]

The next result will be interesting for NPX.

If the NZD goes any higher, it will impact on NPX bottom line, esp when the majority of its earnings coming from overseas.

[Stranger_Danger]

Yeah, but it would further help their debt position.

[Balance]

I purchased NPX at $0.80 to get the rights and now sitting with a good profit on paper. But what is the benefit of profit taking if I can't purchase anything considerablly better than NPX? I think the building sector is about to take off. Bought quite a bit FBU and NPX now.

Take another bow, Bowman.

NPX now at 43 cents. You must be crying into your champagne?

[mccollr]

Share your sentiments. How about MHI as a possible. ??

Rod

[upside_umop]

If someone didnt notice the massive volume yesterday, they should have today?

Over 30 million shares traded in two days...although that is out of a total 760 million shares now!

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3114/3551053542_c1e35923e5_o.jpg

Here we see some positive signs showing from NPX, finally. OBV has been rising steadily for almost a month now, with the big 'step' yesterday. Directional movement using standard settings has also crossed, with Parabolic SAR confirming today. Do take note that the Parabolic SAR works well in trending stocks and is recommended by Alexander Elder to be used selectively. However it works well here, but caution should be placed on any reliance, and used in conjunction with either one of the indicators below. Finally, the ascending triangle, a bullish sign with it confirmed breaking out yesterday. This company has gone through a bit of a change some might say, and therefore backtesting is not always as accurate. A safe entry at 0.44 (open) today is what I would have aimed for if only funds werent still tied up in LMP! ASX is an option too, although its a little more illiquid over there.

So who got in?

[mccollr]

I got in at 39

Rod

[JoeBlogs]

Pleased to hear that upside_umop, I had a similar view on the technicals, and doubled my position at 44 on the open today. Previous holding, like Bowman, got in just before rights issue at about 80 c (average about 31 c).

[Jim]

When I took up my rights I thought when the share price reach $0.46 that means I double up my money I'll take some profit. But NPX haven't reach it potential yet I think there is still a while to go yet do you punters agree ??

[Balance]

Stay with the winners.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

JIM A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush and nobody has gone broke taking profits

[macduffy]

JIM A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush and nobody has gone broke taking profits

In 40 odd years of investing I think I've made every mistake possible, at least twice!
The best, hardest learnt lesson is to hold the winners until they run out of puff and to sell the losers quickly. It's human nature to do the opposite!

;)

[Balance]

JIM A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush and nobody has gone broke taking profits

You hold onto the one in your hand and go for the other two in the bush. Not hard to do.

As MacDuffy stated, hanging onto to losers is what make 'nobody' go broke. Those who take profits too early are normally same sort of people who hang onto losers for too long. It's INDEED human nature.

[devito]

When I took up my rights I thought when the share price reach $0.46 that means I double up my money I'll take some profit. But NPX haven't reach it potential yet I think there is still a while to go yet do you punters agree ??

I'm keeping mine. I actually added to them and doubled my ex rights holding. I am sure a few others have as well. Why else are they rising in price:)

[bull....]

I think anyone who took up there rights will be smiling now.
In fact it is no surprise the price rose aggressively pre rights trading from i think 35 low to over 1 dollar at one point as the 23c was very attractive.
Combine this with the green shoots theory and the stars aligned very nicely for this stock post rights.

[Balance]

Pleased to hear that upside_umop, I had a similar view on the technicals, and doubled my position at 44 on the open today. Previous holding, like Bowman, got in just before rights issue at about 80 c (average about 31 c).

Gutsy. You sure show courage of conviction and here's to your faith being rewarded handsomely!

NPX will be a winner in the post credit-squeeze economic environment - a survivor who can be trusted to supply by customers.

[JoeBlogs]

My view exactly Balance. I'm in for the long haul on companies like NPX, FPA, PRC who all have potentially huge upside on global recovery. I just didn't expect to see such gains so soon - I half expect a reasonable dip in my portfolio now after 50% gains in the last 2-3 months, but that's accounted for in my long term plan. I'm reluctant to take profit unless it's undeniably supported by technicals and fundementals, putting jitters not a good enough excuse ;)

[macduffy]

There were plenty of doubters about the deeply discounted rights issue but the fundamental need for the cash was always the technical "breaching of covenants" caused by the effect of a weakening NZD on foreign currency borrowings.
Sure, management was slow to react and allowed the situation to deteriorate further than necessary but on the point of foreign currency borrowings, it still seems to make sense when so much of the company's operations are conducted overseas.
I took up my rights and bought a couple of further parcels at 7-7.5c. Pleased to say that my overall holding is now just about back to being in the money. I'm not selling.

;)

[drew]

Does anyone have a fair value price for NPX based on fundamentals? The problem I have with this one their FCFs after capital expenditures for the past 10 years are quite flat despite their ever increasing balance sheet.

That being said anything under 45c was pretty cheap as their working capital alone is higher than the market cap at that price.

Discl. NPX holder

[SCOTTY]

Does anyone have a fair value price for NPX based on fundamentals? The problem I have with this one their FCFs after capital expenditures for the past 10 years are quite flat despite their ever increasing balance sheet.

That being said anything under 45c was pretty cheap as their working capital alone is higher than the market cap at that price.

Discl. NPX holder

On 19.05.09, NPX put out EBITDA guidance for 09 of NZ$87mil.

Cheers

Scotty

[OldRider]

Drew; As you have stated FCF's over the last 10 years have not grown much.
Looking at figures for year up to 30 June 2008. FCF was just about the same as 2000 year,
However, over this time, eps had more than doubled, dividends had tripled, revenue was up four times, and profits up almost three times.

Using these figures and my own measurement formulae, NPX rates fairly highly for return earned on retained capital, so would be in normal times be seen as a growth company.

At that stage my systen valued them as a buy at $5.50 to $6.50. The market now regards debt differently, and with liabilities about 65% of assets we have the problems that have occurred, the capital raising should have helped.

For the present I think each individual will have their own view of value and this will be over quite a range. For myself I have retained my holding and taken up all the offered rights

[The BOWMAN]

I kind of think 50c would be a fair value. Back before the rights issue, there were a few valuations done by some brokers. I vaguely remember it was something like between 40c to 65c. You should be able to google them out if you think it is of any value.

[winner69]

Drew; As you have stated FCF's over the last 10 years have not grown much.
Looking at figures for year up to 30 June 2008. FCF was just about the same as 2000 year,
However, over this time, eps had more than doubled, dividends had tripled, revenue was up four times, and profits up almost three times.

Using these figures and my own measurement formulae, NPX rates fairly highly for return earned on retained capital, so would be in normal times be seen as a growth company.

At that stage my systen valued them as a buy at $5.50 to $6.50. The market now regards debt differently, and with liabilities about 65% of assets we have the problems that have occurred, the capital raising should have helped.

For the present I think each individual will have their own view of value and this will be over quite a range. For myself I have retained my holding and taken up all the offered rights

Over many years NPX return on invested capital (equity and debt) has remained at around the 10% mark .... probably in line with thier cost of capital .... ie not adding that much if anything in the way of added economic value.

As such if NPX continue as they have in the past (through good and bad times, through periods of consolidation and growth through acquisition) doesn't seem why they will do much better than the 10% .... in simple terms meaning the NPV of future economiv vakue added is abour zilch which implies that the market value of NPX equity should be about what their book vakue is ...... and funny enough that is where the NPX share price is at the moment.

All this raving is essentially the same as drews concern that FCF isn't all that flash .... after all aren't they just an old fashioned capital intensive chemical company ... and that is the way such companies are generally priced

However over periods 'investor sentiment' changes for the good and bad ... and has been seen even with the likes of NPX above average returns can be made by following the sentiment

[dragonz]

Expect some activity today folks.

Nuplex today announced that it intends to consolidate its existing ordinary
shares on issue on a one-for-four basis.

[Lego_Man]

No idea on the truth of it, but i've heard a consensus online that share consolidations tend to be bearish for holders?

[beacon]

Only in the short term Lego Man. This company is now seriously undervalued based on fundamentals, now that the covenant drama is done and dusted. DOW in the US touched $18. Expecting re rating. Increasing position...

[winner69]

ditto ..........

Yes Belg that sentiment is turning for the good .... NPX will get back to making record profits next year (ie NPAT excess of $60m) and it will be rerated to a PE higher than the 10 it has averaged for many years .... more like the 15 it got to in 2007 in excess of the market .... so on that basis of record profits and a PE of 15 NPX is worth at least $1.25 (or soon $5.00)

Good story eh ... lets go for it .... fundamnetals mean stuff all ... sentiment is waht matters .... lets rerate this baby big time.
.

[winner69]

Only in the short term Lego Man. This company is now seriously undervalued based on fundamentals, now that the covenant drama is done and dusted. DOW in the US touched $18. Expecting re rating. Increasing position...


Could be on to something re NPX and DOW ... need to learn how to post charts but this will do

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NPX.NZ&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ge


DOW didn't go down as much as NPX and has started improving before NPX did ... and NPX still has a lot of catching up to do

[JoeBlogs]

No idea on the truth of it, but i've heard a consensus online that share consolidations tend to be bearish for holders?

It may be bearish for the share price (for no good reason), but I'm a holder, and I consider this a buying opportunity. Very happy to be picking up more NPX at 43 c this late in the game.

I agree with beacon, NPX is seriously undervalued.

[The BOWMAN]

What do you guys expect the EPS is going to be for the next financial year though? I think it is going to be like 15c - 20c (after consolidation)? Somehow I don't think it is "seriously undervalued"?

[dragonz]

What do you guys expect the EPS is going to be for the next financial year though? I think it is going to be like 15c - 20c (after consolidation)? Somehow I don't think it is "seriously undervalued"?

?????

Don't you mean 50-60 cents?

[The BOWMAN]

?????

Don't you mean 50-60 cents?

Even the EBITA can't reach that level.

Look, estimated EBITA $87 million, after consolidation 189,797,228 shares.

That is 45.8 cents per share. I estimated the actual profit will be just 30% to 40% of EBITA (and that is actually a pretty high proportion).

[winner69]

Even the EBITA can't reach that level.

You are on to it The Bowman .... this year EBITDA might reach 11-12 cents / share .... and that will probably end up as NPAT of of about 4-5 cents a share ... looks like your 16-20 cents post consolidation eh

[The BOWMAN]

Not sure I agree there BOWMAN,winner69 ... Inventories of NPX customers will have been run down significantly and as things pick up (now!) they'll need to restock so NPX will probably have a good year this and next. Add to that they've raised a shed load of cash which will be idle as revenues pick up and they be looking to aquire or grow or hand back as divies. Using a PE of just 10, 4-5 cents per share gives 40-50 cents which is where they're at now. No big gain sure but unlikely to be down to 16-20.

I am confused. Where did you get a PE of 10 from? My calculation was based on the projected earnings from the company announcement, which comes down to EBITA around 11 cents per share.

You are using a PE of 10 to reverse calculate the profit, which clearly doesn't agree with their projected earnings.

[Balance]

I am confused. Where did you get a PE of 10 from? My calculation was based on the projected earnings from the company announcement, which comes down to EBITA around 11 cents per share.

You are using a PE of 10 to reverse calculate the profit, which clearly doesn't agree with their projected earnings.

EPS = NPAT/#shares = EBITA - interest - amortisation - tax

EBITDA = "Earnings before I totally duped auditor"

[JoeBlogs]

I'm a bit confused too.

Two main points here:


EPS 4-5 c = 16-20 c post consolidation (as some have forcast)

Given the current sp (40-50 c), P/E = roughly 10 assuming the 4-5 c EPS forcast


That sum it up?

[The BOWMAN]

All right, now I am clear.

Belg, you misunderstood me. The 15c - 20c figure I gave was not the share price. That was my esticated EPS after consolidation.

and I misunderstood your 40c-50c as projected EPS.

All clear.

[winner69]

I'm a bit confused too.

Two main points here:


EPS 4-5 c = 16-20 c post consolidation (as some have forcast)

Given the current sp (40-50 c), P/E = roughly 10 assuming the 4-5 c EPS forcast


That sum it up?

Joe ... spot on

Earlier you said you agreed with beacon in that NPX is seriously undervalued..... but what you have just shown is that maybe they are not that undervalued .... NPX is a boring old chemical chemical company with ongoing capex taht has traded at an average PE of 10 or less for years (Huntley Aspect figures) .... in the good times and in the bad times and in the times of acquiring companies and in times of disposing companies ...... so what;s changed to rerate NPX?

[Balance]

Joe ... spot on

Earlier you said you agreed with beacon in that NPX is seriously undervalued..... but what you have just shown is that maybe they are not that undervalued .... NPX is a boring old chemical chemical company with ongoing capex taht has traded at an average PE of 10 or less for years (Huntley Aspect figures) .... in the good times and in the bad times and in the times of acquiring companies and in times of disposing companies ...... so what;s changed to rerate NPX?

Share consolidation, matey!

[JoeBlogs]

Good question winner69.

Re-rate or not, I'm happy to wait for earnings growth that I'm confident will occur in the medium-long term.

BTW, I never said I subscribe to the 4-5 c EPS for FY09 ;)

[Balance]

Huh? How does that result in a re-rate?

Bal - you rampin' and dumpin' ... ;)

I like NPX as a company and think that they were incredibly unfortunate to have been hit so hard by the downturn. But they obviously have the support of key shareholders and will prosper again when economic conditions improve.

Traders will leave the stock with the share consolidation however and that is not a good thing for liquidity.

[Dr_Who]

In business there is no such thing as unfortunate. A good management team will plan for the good times as well as the bad times. Those that leveraged too heavily in the good times will find it tough going when the cycle turns. The good times dont last forever, abit like dating.

Companies that have planned for the bad times will be cashed up to take the opportunities to buy out under valued assets.

[Balance]

In business there is no such thing as unfortunate. A good management team will plan for the good times as well as the bad times. Those that leveraged too heavily in the good times will find it tough going when the cycle turns. The good times dont last forever, abit like dating.

Companies that have planned for the bad times will be cashed up to take the opportunities to buy out under valued assets.

Hmm. I am sure most people try and drive safely and carefully. Bit unfortunate if a drunk hits them or is it their fault for not planning to be hit by a drunk?

[bull....]

EPS - 21c
P/E - 14
Share Price $3

Thats my pick

Nice juicy gains of 70 - 80% post consolidation + Divs , S...t hope im right.

[dragonz]

Daily ShareChat: Nuplex Industries
By Jenny Ruth

Wednesday 3rd June 2009
Text too small?

Morningstar has raised its forecast earnings for Nuplex Industries following indications from management that its major markets have stabilised after falling significantly since October/November last year.

The researcher is now expecting Nuplex's net profit for the year ending June 30 will be $24.4 million, up from its previous $19 million forecast but down from the $53.4 million net profit Nuplex reported in 2008. Morningstar expects a $36 million net profit in 2010.

The company's raw materials prices have fallen on weak demand and soft crude oil prices and, combined with "disciplined behaviour" shown by Nuplex's competitors, should mean gross margins will improve or at least remain stable for the foreseeable future, it says.

Petrochemicals account for about 80% of Nuplex's total cost of sales and excess capacity is putting downward pressure on prices and an alliance it has formed with other resins producers to procure raw materials has enhanced its bargaining power with suppliers, Morningstar says.

It says there is also good scope for margin improvement from rationalisation and restructuring. "These initiatives should lead to strong earnings momentum over the next two years."

Following Nuplex's $160 million rights issue, it values the shares at 62 cents compared with Tuesday's close at 43 cents.



BROKER CALL: Morningstar rate Nuplex (NZX: NPX ) as ACCUMULATE.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz:80/article/13df4f94/daily-sharechat-nuplex-industries.html

[winner69]

That $24.4m NPAT for 09 is an EPS of 3.2 cents .... and next years (bulllish) forecast of $34m is an eps of 4.5 cents (before consolidation)

NPX hardly hugely undervalued at the moment on these numbers

[Balance]

Daily ShareChat: Nuplex Industries


BROKER CALL: Morningstar rate Nuplex (NZX: NPX ) as ACCUMULATE.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz:80/article/13df4f94/daily-sharechat-nuplex-industries.html

Same crowd which have had an 'Accumulate' on Nuplex all the way through a severe profit downgrade cycle from October last year!

Sep 2008 - sp $6.40 - Accumulate - Earnings trimmed
Nov 2008 - sp $3.80 - Buy - Share price too low
Dec 2008 - sp $3.50 - Accumulate - Profit downgrade

???? Buy high, buy lower, keep buying ????

[biker]

Same crowd which have had an 'Accumulate' on Nuplex all the way through a severe profit downgrade cycle from October last year!

Sep 2008 - sp $6.40 - Accumulate - Earnings trimmed
Nov 2008 - sp $3.80 - Buy - Share price too low
Dec 2008 - sp $3.50 - Accumulate - Profit downgrade

???? Buy high, buy lower, keep buying ????


Another fine example of how to make a killing on the market - shoot your broker (or financial advisor)


(said in jest of course, and not to be taken seriously)

[Balance]

Another fine example of how to make a killing on the market - shoot your broker (or financial advisor)


(said in jest of course, and not to be taken seriously)

Bad boy, Biker.

No hot tips for you from your broker for a week?

[bull....]

People should use figures post consolidation now therefore morning stars assumptions roughly equate to 18c eps and on a pe of 14 still equates roughly to 2.50 share price hughly under valued at 1.60 odd.

If things go back to normal in the world 66mil npat , 35c eps , pe 14 , share price 5 dollars
this assumes world has v recovery.

[Balance]

People should use figures post consolidation now therefore morning stars assumptions roughly equate to 18c eps and on a pe of 14 still equates roughly to 2.50 share price hughly under valued at 1.60 odd.

If things go back to normal in the world 66mil npat , 35c eps , pe 14 , share price 5 dollars
this assumes world has v recovery.

Why PE 14?

Why not 20?

Or 8?

[bull....]

5 yr average pe approx 12.5 , so im assuming pe 14 to allow for out performance.

[Dr_Who]

Can someone tell me how the higher commodity prices and higher NZD will affect NPX?

I am assuming NPX uses a significant amount of petrochemical and report in NZD.

[The BOWMAN]

I happen to just read Aspect Huntley's new rating report on NPX last night. You know what, it is exactly the same as the Morning Star's one. Is Aspect Huntley just another name for Morning Star, or do they just copy from each other?

[Balance]

5 yr average pe approx 12.5 , so im assuming pe 14 to allow for out performance.

bull .....

NPX grew over the years thru' acquisitions, using debt.

Those days are long gone and with it, NPX's growth profile. PE of 14 when you can buy good quality stocks on PEs of less than 10?

I like the company but not enough to rate it as a growth out performance stock. Only reason why it got so high was because Fisher 'ramp-them-up-high" fund was buying.

[winner69]

From Aspect the average annual PE for NPX has been

2002 9.9
2003 9.0
2004 8.8
2005 11.9
2006 6.5
2007 14.6
2008 10.0

Prob ably about right for a good old solid chemical company with ongoing capex requirements and a profit margin of 3%-4%

But don't let me get in the way of a good story - let the rerating begin

[macduffy]

I happen to just read Aspect Huntley's new rating report on NPX last night. You know what, it is exactly the same as the Morning Star's one. Is Aspect Huntley just another name for Morning Star, or do they just copy from each other?

They are certainly associated.
I think Morningstar bought out Ian Huntley but wouldn't be 100% sure of that.

[upside_umop]

EPS - 21c
P/E - 14
Share Price $3

Thats my pick

Nice juicy gains of 70 - 80% post consolidation + Divs , S...t hope im right.

I think you'll find this company will trade with a greater risk premium than it did before because of the foreign exchange balls up. It will take a while for the market to forgive this one...

[beacon]

Hey winner, that chart of yours has GE instead of DOW. Am I missing something?

Also, thanks to all those who kicked up a racket and for all the comment and input when I said NPX is seriously undervalued. We have reexamined all our calculations and assumptions and fine tuned them with Morningstar report. I must confess we made an error. NPX is not undervalued at all. You guys helped save a bundle. MANY THANKS. We will do what we need to do now...

[JoeBlogs]

You can compare whatever you want. Try this (http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=NPX.NZ&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=dow)

Cheers

[drew]

Drew; As you have stated FCF's over the last 10 years have not grown much.
Looking at figures for year up to 30 June 2008. FCF was just about the same as 2000 year,
However, over this time, eps had more than doubled, dividends had tripled, revenue was up four times, and profits up almost three times.

OldRider I have to admit I did not examine in depth the earnings, dividends or revenue for the prior years my focus was just cash generation on a diluted per share basis. Without digging through the annual reports I suspect this could be the reconciliation with your observations. The increases you refer to have also occurred alongside a steady increase of shares outstanding, a steady decline in operating margins, and for some reason the annual deprn charge has not increased inline with the increase in fixed assets.

I purchased NPX after the rights announcement on the basis that it was trading well below fair value. However, my problem now is at what price do I sell at?

I consider NPX to be the classic cigar butt investment described by Buffett that you pick up take some profit then throwaway because there is only a single profit to be made. I agree with winner69 that NPX should be trading at a multiple or PE of around 10 or upto 14 depending on how rosy investors want to see the future. I dont see a very favourable future for NPX as it is a commodity based capital intensive business with little pricing power. Inflation in the future will eat up cash in capital reinvestment despite the reported profits. Management has proven that they not been able to increase cashflows inline with capital reinvestment in the business. I dont think this is a management issue, its probably just the business they are in.

However, management in my opinion do not appear very shareholder oriented either, for example the share reduction announced today is meaningless from a business perspective and a further waste of shareholder funds. Also, I still dont quite understand the debt covenant issue with the banks and this was not, and still has not, been satisfactorily explained by management. How did funding obtained by subsidiaries in their own functional currencies end up triggering debt covenants in NZ? Intuitively that seems like a sensible approach to fund operations offshore in that foreign currency as the company has a natural hedge between the assets and debt.

FCF for the year to June 2008 was approximately $41m and half-year FCF to Dec 2008 was approx $32m and the market cap is currently $326m. A multiple of 10 is still slightly undervaluing NPX but not by much. We may have to wait and see the full year results.

[macduffy]

Also, I still dont quite understand the debt covenant issue with the banks and this was not, and still has not, been satisfactorily explained by management. How did funding obtained by subsidiaries in their own functional currencies end up triggering debt covenants in NZ? Intuitively that seems like a sensible approach to fund operations offshore in that foreign currency as the company has a natural hedge between the assets and debt.
QUOTE.

My guess, and it's only that, is that the subsidiaries' borrowing was backed by a guarantee from the parent company which involved some covenants to give comfort to the lender(s). I can see that a bank would not want to lend to the local subsidiary of some foreign company, such as NPX, without that backing.
I agree that borrowing in the local currency for offshore operations is a sensible approach, with the natural hedge provided. NPX is not alone in meeting the problem with debt covenants when the "reporting" currency loses value. TSE was a notable recent example in Australia and provided good profits for those able to see the technical, temporary nature of the problem and to take advantage of the buying opportunity offered by the necessary deeply discounted cash issue.

[Dr_Who]

Lets see if NPX can hold its support at 40 cents.

[Balance]

Lets see if NPX can hold its support at 40 cents.

Always a worry when directors let ego of a higher share price (hence, consolidation) get in the way of improved liquidity and interest in a stock.

[dragonz]

Always a worry when directors let ego of a higher share price (hence, consolidation) get in the way of improved liquidity and interest in a stock.

Where's Fisher Fund when the company needs them?

For those confused or anoyed at the consolidation and the resulting downward pressure of the share price, I thought the following article might shine some light on the NPX decision.

"Fun and games aside, the split will help Coeur d'Alene Mines to remove the stigma of its painfully low share price, while addressing a quirk of the brokerage-industry fee structure that often punishes purchasers of lower-cost equities. I consider the split a positive move, since institutional investors can be constrained by guidelines requiring a minimum share price. "

Perhaps the consolidation is an attempt to once again attract the institutional investors.

[macduffy]

Except that the CXC (CDE in the States) consolidation was made mandatory by the rule in its home exchange that prevents shares trading below $1 for more than a certain period of time. CDE breached this requirement a few months ago, hence the 10 for 1 consolidation.
CXC, as the Aust depository receipt of CDE, did likewise.

PS The Yanks refer to Coeur's consolidation as a "reverse split" !

[dragonz]

Except that the CXC (CDE in the States) consolidation was made mandatory by the rule in its home exchange that prevents shares trading below $1 for more than a certain period of time. CDE breached this requirement a few months ago, hence the 10 for 1 consolidation.
CXC, as the Aust depository receipt of CDE, did likewise.

PS The Yanks refer to Coeur's consolidation as a "reverse split" !

Ahhh, I did wonder:rolleyes:

[Balance]

SP drifting lower and lower - was 46 cts before announcement of consolidation. Now 41 cents and more and more sellers emerging and taking out the buyers.

Dumb and dumber - that's NPX in understanding the market.

[dragonz]

SP drifting lower and lower - was 46 cts before announcement of consolidation. Now 41 cents and more and more sellers emerging and taking out the buyers.

Dumb and dumber - that's NPX in understanding the market.

No not true. SP dropped to 41 cents immediately after the consolidation announcement (to be expected). The last 10 trading days the price has stayed between 41 and 42 cents. As for the "more sellers emerging and taking out the buyers" is also untrue.

I have been watching the depth quite closely as I took the opportunity to top up. The 40/41 buy and the 42/43 sell depth has equally ranged between 900000 - 11000000.

I dont know if the sp will collapse after Consolidation but have no worries about selling at the first sign of weakness.

At this stage however I see the SP dip because of an administration procedure as a good time to buy.

[JoeBlogs]

At this stage however I see the SP dip because of an administration procedure as a good time to buy.

Very true.

[Balance]

No not true. SP dropped to 41 cents immediately after the consolidation announcement (to be expected). The last 10 trading days the price has stayed between 41 and 42 cents. As for the "more sellers emerging and taking out the buyers" is also untrue.

I have been watching the depth quite closely as I took the opportunity to top up. The 40/41 buy and the 42/43 sell depth has equally ranged between 900000 - 11000000.

I dont know if the sp will collapse after Consolidation but have no worries about selling at the first sign of weakness.

At this stage however I see the SP dip because of an administration procedure as a good time to buy.

Wrong.

Consolidation announcement was at 10.13 am on 2 June. Trading resumed at 10.23 am and shares dropped to 45 cents and went as low as 42 cents.

I have been watching too and the buyers are being taken out by the sellers steadily with the sell side numbers now higher than the buy side. 675,000 to sell at 42 and 503,000 to buy at 41.

Administration? Case of liquidity premium becoming a illiquidity/consolidation discount.

Market does pay a premium for liquidity and NPX has decided to compound its dumb initial failed capital raising decision with yet another one.

Good luck!

[dragonz]

Why start your reply with a "wrong" then repeat what I just said?

"Consolidation announcement was at 10.13 am on 2 June. Trading resumed at 10.23 am and shares dropped to 45 cents and went as low as 42 cents."

It dropped to 41 cents (from 46) then settled to 42 by closing. Look at the chart. This doenst include the last 2 days but they are identical to the previous 7. Hardly a drift lower as you stated. More like a 'sharp drop and stabilisation' to me.


"I have been watching too and the buyers are being taken out by the sellers steadily with the sell side numbers now higher than the buy side. 675,000 to sell at 42 and 503,000 to buy at 41."

The sell is now down to 625000 but actually the real action is happening behind the scenes. It looks like a solid floor of 40 cents+ to me. But I guess this is the half full or half empty type arguement.


"Administration? Case of liquidity premium becoming a illiquidity/consolidation discount."

Totally agree with this one mate. Doesnt change the fundamentals however. Someones loss is somebody else's gain.

Good luck to all holders.

[Balance]

Why start your reply with a "wrong" then repeat what I just said?

"Consolidation announcement was at 10.13 am on 2 June. Trading resumed at 10.23 am and shares dropped to 45 cents and went as low as 42 cents."

It dropped to 41 cents (from 46) then settled to 42 by closing. Look at the chart. This doenst include the last 2 days but they are identical to the previous 7. Hardly a drift lower as you stated. More like a 'sharp drop and stabilisation' to me.


"I have been watching too and the buyers are being taken out by the sellers steadily with the sell side numbers now higher than the buy side. 675,000 to sell at 42 and 503,000 to buy at 41."

The sell is now down to 625000 but actually the real action is happening behind the scenes. It looks like a solid floor of 40 cents+ to me. But I guess this is the half full or half empty type arguement.


"Administration? Case of liquidity premium becoming a illiquidity/consolidation discount."

Totally agree with this one mate. Doesnt change the fundamentals however. Someones loss is somebody else's gain.

Good luck to all holders.

It never dropped to 41 cents on announcement of the consolidation. It went to 45, then 43, then finished the day at 42. Small point but worth $7.5m given no of shares on issue!

So consolidate to $1.64 or $1.60?

My pick - $1.60 and lower. Stock will suddenly look more expensive to traders who will liquidate to play other more liquid stocks.

[dragonz]

Yes your right - sorry it didnt drop to 41, it dropped to 42 cents. Doesnt change the fact that its been trading between 41-42 cents for the last 7 out of 10 trading days however.

Time will tell if the stock drops further. I see someone dumped a large order at closing that took out the 41 cents. So mabe a further fall is possible.
It went up on the ASX and thats where I have my holding.

Not sure how much this is a 'traders stock' but I guess we'll find out over the next coming weeks.

[Casa del Energia]

Well, the collective wisdom of the market doesn't seem too stoked with the idea of that consolidation. In the future, I hope the board keeps future genius ideas to themselves. I can't afford any more bright ideas from them.

[Balance]

Well, the collective wisdom of the market doesn't seem too stoked with the idea of that consolidation. In the future, I hope the board keeps future genius ideas to themselves. I can't afford any more bright ideas from them.

The 500,000 odd to buy at 40 cents have dissipated into 5,700 at $1.60. Likewise, the 500,000 odd to sell at 42 cents have dissipated into 13,920 at $1.68.

Must mean less selling, right? And so share price must go up, right?

Good one, Directors.

[dragonz]

I'm pleasantly surprised how well the share price has stayed firm above the 160 cent mark (40 cents pre consolidation). I thought the lemmings might rush at the beginning of trading and bring the price down, but if anything, it looks like the buy side is building.

Once smart investors realize that the roof isn’t about to fall in (post consolidation) I’m sure we'll see a movement back into pre-announcement territory. All uphill from here IMHO

[macduffy]

I can't see any reason why consolidation should be a risk to the shareprice, or a benefit, for that matter.
As someone has suggested, the reason seems to be one of a "better look", having a SP at $1.60 rather than a measly 40cents!
I suspect that NPX directors are the only parties really concerned about that.

:rolleyes:

[Dr_Who]

NPX used to be a fun stock. With the consolidation, it is now viewed as a boring stock.

[dragonz]

NPX used to be a fun stock. With the consolidation, it is now viewed as a boring stock.

Hey Doc. Someone has a buy order in for 2 shares @ 162. This is an increase of 1 whole cent on yesterdays close. Do you think they might be accumulating?

[Casa del Energia]

The 500,000 odd to buy at 40 cents have dissipated into 5,700 at $1.60. Likewise, the 500,000 odd to sell at 42 cents have dissipated into 13,920 at $1.68.

Must mean less selling, right? And so share price must go up, right?

Good one, Directors.

My apologies to the board. The sp appears to be holding up - once again, I consume humble pie.

[Grimy]

I tried to sell my stake pre-consolidation, with the view the price would probably dip. I didn't get what I wanted, but the price has held up better than I thought, so it's still looking okay.

[Balance]

My apologies to the board. The sp appears to be holding up - once again, I consume humble pie.

Pre-consolidation announcement was 46 cents or $1.84.

Why consume humble pie? The consolidation has been a poor decision.

[dragonz]

I tried to sell my stake pre-consolidation, with the view the price would probably dip. I didn't get what I wanted, but the price has held up better than I thought, so it's still looking okay.

The price had ran pretty hard leading up to the announcement and was due for a correction anyway.

Shareprice today is still higher then 4 weeks ago. Why sell when the stock is oversold. Better to wait until its overbrought IMHO.

[blackcap]

Balance... please retract that humble pie comment.

My question is: what has the market done since the announcement and is there a correlation.

Havnt checked but pretty sure the market itself has also tanked since the announcement so its only normal that NPX would also drop in the interim.

[winner69]

Blackcap

NPX made announcement 1st thing 2/6 so lets measure relative performance of NPX and NZX50 from previous closing prices

NPX was 46 (= 184) ... now 166 .... down 10%

NZX50 was 2764 .... now 2784 ..... up just under 1%

NPX outperformance in this period 11% .... outperformance on the downside that is

For waht its worth my view consolidation all to do with pride .... isn't it embarassing being in charge of a 'blue chip' / global / leading company with a 40 cent share price ..... if they wanted a respectable shareprice they would have done a 10 for 1 .... did they ever do a split at $4 ... or $8 .... no way

[macduffy]

Blackcap

NPX made announcement 1st thing 2/6 so lets measure relative performance of NPX and NZX50 from previous closing prices

NPX was 46 (= 184) ... now 166 .... down 10%

NZX50 was 2764 .... now 2784 ..... up just under 1%

NPX outperformance in this period 11% .... outperformance on the downside that is

For waht its worth my view consolidation all to do with pride .... isn't it embarassing being in charge of a 'blue chip' / global / leading company with a 40 cent share price ..... if they wanted a respectable shareprice they would have done a 10 for 1 .... did they ever do a split at $4 ... or $8 .... no way


That's about it, winner.

But there are a few funds who are discouraged from looking at stocks under a certain price ( the penny dreadful effect ). So I suppose there is some point in consolidation to achieve "respectability". Won't help their efforts to achieve Top 10, Top 20 etc status of course.

;)

[dragonz]

Blackcap

NPX made announcement 1st thing 2/6 so lets measure relative performance of NPX and NZX50 from previous closing prices

NPX was 46 (= 184) ... now 166 .... down 10%

NZX50 was 2764 .... now 2784 ..... up just under 1%

NPX outperformance in this period 11% .... outperformance on the downside that is

For waht its worth my view consolidation all to do with pride .... isn't it embarassing being in charge of a 'blue chip' / global / leading company with a 40 cent share price ..... if they wanted a respectable shareprice they would have done a 10 for 1 .... did they ever do a split at $4 ... or $8 .... no way

Perhaps a 3 in 1 consolidation combined with a 'token' share purchase (Buy Back) plan would have been a better idea.

[Balance]

Perhaps a 3 in 1 consolidation combined with a 'token' share purchase (Buy Back) plan would have been a better idea.

$1.60 today and on good volume. Looks like a few traders still in there getting out.

BUY NOW if you believe in the consolidation. Opportunity to accumulate cheaper than pre-consolidation.

[dragonz]

$1.60 today and on good volume. Looks like a few traders still in there getting out.

BUY NOW if you believe in the consolidation. Opportunity to accumulate cheaper than pre-consolidation.

According to Scoop http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0906/S00518.htm.

"Investors who bought shares in Nuplex’s sale in April for as little as 23 cents are sitting on a gain of 600%.":eek:

Lets hope they do a 10/1 consolidation so I can sit on a 1000% gain. :D

[macduffy]

According to Scoop http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0906/S00518.htm.

"Investors who bought shares in Nuplex’s sale in April for as little as 23 cents are sitting on a gain of 600%.":eek:

Lets hope they do a 10/1 consolidation so I can sit on a 1000% gain. :D

Yes, the flaw in the "600% gain" is that the only investors who got shares at 23c ( in the issue) were those who had paid considerably more for the "parent shares"!
I wouldn't like to calculate my ( negative) "gain" on NPX, and I managed to temper the loss a bit by buying some cheap rights.

Once the smoke and mirrors of the share consolidation clears NPX will have to get back to business. We'll find out soon enough if it's on the way back up.

[The BOWMAN]

Yes, the flaw in the "600% gain" is that the only investors who got shares at 23c ( in the issue) were those who had paid considerably more for the "parent shares"!
I wouldn't like to calculate my ( negative) "gain" on NPX, and I managed to temper the loss a bit by buying some cheap rights.

Once the smoke and mirrors of the share consolidation clears NPX will have to get back to business. We'll find out soon enough if it's on the way back up.

come on, macduffy. You need to work on your math.

[The BOWMAN]

According to Scoop http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0906/S00518.htm.

"Investors who bought shares in Nuplex’s sale in April for as little as 23 cents are sitting on a gain of 600%.":eek:

Lets hope they do a 10/1 consolidation so I can sit on a 1000% gain. :D

Haha, good spoting! They often make these stupid mistakes. Remember, the only reason that they are writing these articles is they need to get paid for a living, not really they know the stuff. Same thing applies to brokers.

[winner69]

NPX still outperfoming the NZX today .... on the downside

[Balance]

39 cents equivalent yesterday. Looks like the traders are still there and bolting for the door. Need to put on 28 cents now to get back to pre-consolidation announcement level.

At this rate, NPX may need to do another consolidation soon to get the shares back above $1.00?

[Stranger_Danger]

Debt issues largely resolved, some signs of their markets bottoming....if people want to sell due to "paper shuffling" reasons such as a share consolidation, I say be my guest.

[Casa del Energia]

Debt issues largely resolved, some signs of their markets bottoming....if people want to sell due to "paper shuffling" reasons such as a share consolidation, I say be my guest.

Ah yes - but peoples reasons for selling are many and varied and do not modify the fact that the paper shuffle occured. It's a matter of confidence - would you follow an officer over the trench top if you felt he was incompetent? The quality of a leader does not affect the qualilty of the enemies aim - - it does however affect many other aspects of an enterprise.

[dragonz]

Well at least its outperforming the NZX today. And on the ASX its up 2.5%, with few sellers in sight.

Sellers still have control but the whole market is going through a correction.

With a 75% run since April, a good shake out of the tree was inevitable.

[zs_cecil]

Well at least its outperforming the NZX today. And on the ASX its up 2.5%, with few sellers in sight.

Sellers still have control but the whole market is going through a correction.

With a 75% run since April, a good shake out of the tree was inevitable.

Not a pleasant drop recently though :(

[Balance]

$1.51 - another 5 for 1 consolidation will take it back to $7.55.

Management can then claim that they have a strong share price.

[winner69]

Well at least its outperforming the NZX today. And on the ASX its up 2.5%, with few sellers in sight.

Sellers still have control but the whole market is going through a correction.

With a 75% run since April, a good shake out of the tree was inevitable.

Outperformed big time it did eh - down 3.2% compared to NZX50 down less than 1%

[dragonz]

Outperformed big time it did eh - down 3.2% compared to NZX50 down less than 1%

Oh well, a few more lemmings running over the cliff. Glad it made your day though :)

[winner69]

Not a pleasant drop recently though :(


Amazing how much all this fiasco has cost shareholders

A year ago NPX market cap was $466m ..... after a bit of bad news about profit in November but denying that they were in breach of any convenants that dropped to $315m .... oops Feb 2nd was a really bad day when they owned up some sins and the market cap dropped to $220m .... and then when a rights issue was announced in March market cap fallen to about $80m .... and after $160m raised and a good boost to the shareprice market cap went to $353m ..... and then pride says lets consolidate and whoops the market cap today is down to $286m

So even after pumping $160m of new cash into NPX its market cap is still down $180m from where it was a year ago

And even at todays share price NPX is still trading at about the long term historical PE of 10

At least shareholders now have more of an interest in the company than the banks but that bottom line seems a problem

NPX probably performing reasonably well at the moment .... making reasonable profits in tough times .... shareholders have only been burnt because they expected too much of it in the past

One day when it all settles down NPX will be a good share to have in well diversified portfolio .... but not just now

[whatsup]

News must be getting out that recent trading isnt living up to expectations and those in the know are bailing at any price.

I wonder what the colour of the next rabbit (out of the hat) will be, these guys cant win a trick can they!

[Balance]

Oh well, a few more lemmings running over the cliff. Glad it made your day though :)

Lemmings? More like the smart ones as those who sold at $1.80 can now buy back at $1.51 if they wanted to.

But maybe not. Next consolidation perhaps?

[dragonz]

Lemmings? More like the smart ones as those who sold at $1.80 can now buy back at $1.51 if they wanted to.

But maybe not. Next consolidation perhaps?

As I always maintained, the consolidation may be an opportunity to pick up cheaper shares. As its turning out I was right. How much cheaper is anybody’s guess?

:D

[biker]

A lot of recent profit has been generated on this stock and you can't blame the takers of some of it. With the current sour tone to the markets as well, no wonder the price is soft. Perhaps not a totally unreasonable time to grab some stock at not totally unreasonable prices.

[The BOWMAN]

As I always maintained, the consolidation may be an opportunity to pick up cheaper shares. As its turning out I was right. How much cheaper is anybody’s guess?

:D

Dragonz. Now wipe out all your memory of the history of NPX. Look at the price today, just today. You probably will find it is NOT cheap. I do, I got out before the consolidation.

[dragonz]

Dragonz. Now wipe out all your memory of the history of NPX. Look at the price today, just today. You probably will find it is NOT cheap. I do, I got out before the consolidation.

Who said they where cheap? I always maintained that they would get cheaper As it was they have. My holding is on the ASX and I am not holding a paper loss as yet. When or if my stoploss is hit and I get a loss then no big deal. I do multible frequent trades where I expect to lose a few.

NPX doesnt normaly fit my normal trading stock but had thought that the fundimentals looks ok.

Congradulations on your narrow escape. You are most welcome to gloat all you like. :D

[The BOWMAN]

Congradulations on your narrow escape. You are most welcome to gloat all you like. :D

Sour grapes! :D:D:D:D

[dragonz]

Sour grapes! :D:D:D:D

sour NPX shares :p

[Balance]

Another outperformance day for NPX.

Forget about sour or sweet grapes. Sp action is worrying as I thought most traders bolted out before the share consolidation.

Profit downgrade coming? If downgrade, sp will go back to $1.20 at least.

PGW's sp dropped from $1.40 to $1.13 in the lead up to and with the profit downgrade.

[Jim]

Need recapitalise again ????

[Lego_Man]

Yes - as i predicted that is why they consolidated. Wouldnt be a good look if they'd had to issue their new capital again @ ~0.25c...

[biker]

Need recapitalise again ????

Very much doubt it.

[dragonz]

The following is the forecast that was released just last month. I wouldnt have thought that things could have gotten so bad for the company, so quickly. If it had I would have thought that a consolidation would be the last thing theyd worry about.

Just a bit of panic from girly men investors IMHO

NPX
19/05/2009
FORECAST

REL: 1203 HRS Nuplex Industries Limited

FORECAST: NPX: Nuplex Confirms FY2009 EBITDA Guidance

19 May 2009

Nuplex confirms FY2009 EBITDA guidance

Nuplex Industries Limited, the international resins and specialty chemicals
group, today confirmed that its current forecast is to achieve the previous
FY2009 EBITDA guidance of NZ$87 million (FY2008: NZ$122 million).

'Based on performance to the end of April, Nuplex is on target to report
second half EBITDA at least in line with the first half of FY2009,' said Mr.
John Hirst, group managing director. 'We are seeing early signs of recovery
in some markets, with a general sense of stability in the remainder.

'Nuplex's products are essential inputs into our customers' manufacturing
processes so, while demand presently remains restrained, any uplift as a
consequence of inventories throughout the supply chain reaching equilibrium,
or increased consumer spending, will translate into higher sales for the
company. Performance in each market depends upon local economic conditions
but the company continues to be profitable and is well placed to benefit
significantly when demand returns to more normal levels.

We have a diverse customer base and world-wide coverage, with manufacturing
operations in ten countries, half our revenue from outside Australasia, and
sales to over 70 countries.

'Our current strategic priorities are to focus on cash flow, ensure the
group's cost base is aligned with market demand, retain critical skills, and
manage capital expenditure appropriately.

'Following the recent equity capital raising, which lowered Nuplex's net debt
gearing to approximately 25 per cent at 30 April, the company has a
conservative balance sheet with the resources to take advantage of further
growth opportunities. We also have strong operational free cash flow. '

Nuplex Industries Limited is one of the world's top ten manufacturers of
resins for coatings and composites, and one of Australasia's top four
distributors of specialty products for the construction, chemical, plastic
and life sciences industries. It has manufacturing operations in ten
countries across Australasia, Europe, North America and Asia, and more than
50 per cent of revenue comes from outside Australasia. Nuplex is listed on
the Australian and New Zealand exchanges.

For further information, please contact:

John Hirst +61 2 9666 0331

Media enquiries:

New Zealand: Erica Lloyd, Network PR +64 9 306 5813
Australia: Anthony Tregoning, Financial & Corporate Relations +61 2 8264
1000
End CA:00179990 For:NPX Type:FORECAST Time:2009-05-19:12:03:11

[Balance]

Trading update was based upon data to end of April. It is now nearly end of June.

As we have seen with PGW where there is a profit downgrade just after the last one in April, things are pretty grim out there and extremely volatile.

Just don't like the sp action. It is now falling well beyond the 'consolidation' factor.

[winner69]

Trading update was based upon data to end of April. It is now nearly end of June.

As we have seen with PGW where there is a profit downgrade just after the last one in April, things are pretty grim out there and extremely volatile.

Just don't like the sp action. It is now falling well beyond the 'consolidation' factor.

Talking of PGW joker in the paper says PGW haven't always been that 'honest' with their disclosures ... tell the analysts ... but not the public

Nothing new in that .... Nuplex play that trick as well ... don't they?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10580741

[macduffy]

Just don't like the sp action. It is now falling well beyond the 'consolidation' factor.
QUOTE.

I don't like to be too negative about NPX which has now managed to get its balance sheet in order but it's true that profit downgrades, like Melbourne trams, don't ususally come singly.
Being realistic, we should expect a spate of downgrades across the market in the next month or so.

[winner69]

Trading update says EBITDA will be 87 mill - shares on issue 189 mill > $87/189 = EBITDA 46 cents per share ... So what will I,T,D,A be per share? Basically a lot less I with T,D and A being anyones guess ... think the market may be underestimating the upside a bit?

edited: Interesting. The ACC has increased their stake by 1%. Quite good sign IMHO as the ACC generally don't do too badly with their picks.

Yeah Belg ... NPX ain't a disaster operationally ...EBITDA $87m not too bad in the circumstances

Good old chemical companies maybe valued at 6 times EBITDA, ie EV:EBITDA that is

So an EV of say $550m about right when next years prospects aren't that bright .... assuming all the new cash went to reduce debt tahts about where NPX is valued now

[dragonz]

Daily ShareChat: Nuplex Industries
By Jenny Ruth

Thursday 2nd July 2009
Text too small?

While the deteriorating global economic conditions reduced demand for resins company Nuplex Industries' products following destocking by customers, there is some evidence this trend is reversing, says McDouall Stuart.

That has provided the company with confidence to provide guidance of $86 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the current year, it says. That's down from $122 million in the year ended June 2008.

The broker is forecasting EBITDA of $86.2 million for the year ended June 30, rising to $95.1 million the following year.

The consolidation of the global resins industry "has led to rational behaviour and improving margins," it says. About 81% of Nuplex's earnings last year came from resins.

It says restructuring of Asia Pacific Specialities, which Nuplex bought in 2002, will see its operations transferred to other Nuplex resin production sites or sold or closed down which will release capital and improve the group's profitability.

"The underwritten cash issue should alleviate the financial risk of the company and allow management to pursue operational improvements in a difficult global economic environment," it says.

Nuplex raised $159.5 million in April from a rights issue and placement.

"The share price is likely to appreciate as management deliver on their earnings guidance," McDouall Stuart says.



BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Nuplex Industries (NZX: NPX ) as buy.

[dragonz]

discl: Accumulating (Phaedrus will say Im doing it wrong, whatever)

Now its been confirmed that the recent sell-off had more to do with nervous investors after the consolidation, we may see some positive movement in the share price.
The buy depth is already outweighing the sell depth 3/1 on thre Australian Market.

It will be interesting to see if this is the absolute bottom.

[winner69]

Daily ShareChat: Nuplex Industries
By Jenny Ruth

Thursday 2nd July 2009
Text too small?

While the deteriorating global economic conditions reduced demand for resins company Nuplex Industries' products following destocking by customers, there is some evidence this trend is reversing, says McDouall Stuart.

That has provided the company with confidence to provide guidance of $86 million in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the current year, it says. That's down from $122 million in the year ended June 2008.

The broker is forecasting EBITDA of $86.2 million for the year ended June 30, rising to $95.1 million the following year.

The consolidation of the global resins industry "has led to rational behaviour and improving margins," it says. About 81% of Nuplex's earnings last year came from resins.

It says restructuring of Asia Pacific Specialities, which Nuplex bought in 2002, will see its operations transferred to other Nuplex resin production sites or sold or closed down which will release capital and improve the group's profitability.

"The underwritten cash issue should alleviate the financial risk of the company and allow management to pursue operational improvements in a difficult global economic environment," it says.

Nuplex raised $159.5 million in April from a rights issue and placement.

"The share price is likely to appreciate as management deliver on their earnings guidance," McDouall Stuart says.



BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Nuplex Industries (NZX: NPX ) as buy.

Why is it sahres never trade at analysts valuations?

[winner69]

"The share price is likely to appreciate as management deliver on their earnings guidance," McDouall Stuart says.



BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Nuplex Industries (NZX: NPX ) as buy.

Thats the problem ..... management still to deliver on the guidance given when they raised heaps of cash to buy the Akzo resins business

[dragonz]

Why is it sahres never trade at analysts valuations?

Fashen your seatbelts folks.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0907/S00046.htm

"Nuplex Industries (NPX): The specialty chemicals maker is rated a ‘buy’ by brokerage McDouall Stuart, which said there is evidence destocking by customers is reversing, according to the ShareChat website. The company’s NZ$159.5 million capital raising via a rights issue and placement in April “should alleviate the financial risk of the company and allow management to pursue operational improvements in a difficult global economic environment," the brokerage said. The shares were unchanged at NZ$1.50 yesterday."

[whatsup]

Phae---, I think your right NPX is way over sold, watch it Zoom!!

[winner69]

Spose the chart looks the same if you adjsut for the recent 4 for 1 consolidation

[winner69]

Phae---, I think your right NPX is way over sold, watch it Zoom!!

Sure is zooming today .... up 3% plus ands it only 11am

[bull....]

1.485 , 38% retracement from highs , bouncing nicely maintains my uptrend from lows.

[Phaedrus]

Spose the chart looks the same if you adjust for the recent 4 for 1 consolidationAaaaaarrrrhhhhhh! I forgot all about this. I'll bump the chart until I have fixed it.

[dragonz]

Now its been confirmed that the recent sell-off had more to do with nervous investors after the consolidation, we may see some positive movement in the share price.
The buy depth is already outweighing the sell depth 3/1 on thre Australian Market.

It will be interesting to see if this is the absolute bottom.

Up 4% NZX and up 3.3% on the ASX so far today. A retracement to pre-consolidation levels by the end of next week is now looking possible.

[winner69]

NPX outperforming today as the market rerates it .... maybe now seen as a bell weather stock for the state of the economy

One of few stocks in positive territory

[Jim]

Do you think so. I see NPX fell 6 cents today. It is equivalent to about 0.36 cents before the consolidation

[winner69]

Outperformed again and closed 4% down at 147 .... seeing it was up early on thats some drop ... with some pretty strong selling late afternoon

One of the ironies of a share consolidation is that the charts show the NPX shareprice over $30 not that long ago ..... a fall from $30 to $1.47 looks far worse than $8 to 37 cents doesn't it .... maybe management thought that the charts wouldn't be adjusted and all the world would see was a fall from $8 a while ago to $1.47

[winner69]

NPX financial year ended this week and many look forward to seeing the accounts but there shouldn't be too mnay surprises as they have said a few times that EBITDA will be $80m odd .... it is just the bits in between that are of interest.

But heck what would happen if EBITDA was less than $80m?

One thing I am looking forward to is how they will handle the earnings per share calculation ... the number that gets published and which people multiply by 12 to give an indicative share price

This is normally calulated on the weighted average of shares over the year .... so all these new shares will only count for 2 months of the year inflating the reported eps compared to telling people what the full year NPAT divided by the number of shares on issue now

Does make a difference ..... say the $80m EBITDA of $80m turns into $25m NPAT

On a weighted average basis that would an eps of 51 cents per share .... so a share price over $5 might be warranted

But taking $25m NPAT over current 190 million shares is 13 cents a share .... multiple by 14 and a fair share price might be $1.50 odd.

They wouldn't try to pull the wool over our eyes would they ...... and surely analysts wouldn't fall for it would they?

We'll see but it looks like the market seems pretty clued up at the moment anyway

[winner69]

One thing for sure Belg is that NPX will remind us once again that they are ' ....one of the world's top ten manufacturers of resins for coatings and composites, and one of Australasia's top four distributors of specialty products for the construction, chemical, plastic'

Wouldn't do for GE would it .... they only want to be #1 or #2 but I suppose being #10 in the world based in NZ ain't too bad .... at least based in NZ at the moment ... soon to go to Australia? ..... maybe do a NUF or a LNN and let the Aussies see the true potential in a stock eh




And of course the outlook will be positive .... if the past is anything to go watch the share price in the weeks leading up to announcement ..... early August to the announcement late August .... the market invaraiable seems to be able to make a very good guess as to whether it is a good or bad result .... if you get the gist

[Balance]

Do not think June 2009 financials not really what institutions will be looking at as much as forward commentary. I think commentary will be positive as buyers of NPX's products have been restocking and smaller competitors of NPX have hit the wall.

A few tough questions need to be asked when results released of management and board about big stuff-up :

1. Company getting into financial strife (blame it on credit crisis, of course)
2. Company having to scuttle first capital raising (blame that on advisors, of course)
3. Share consolidation (getting harder to blame someone else).

Share price now $1.47 - was $1.84 before consolidation announcement and share price was heading higher.

[kizame]

I must be missing something here big time! SP going down and yet just about anyway I slice the numbers it should be going up! Could be an overhang of small players (belatedly!) booking rights profits but is there something more? What am I missing?

Confidence was building and the share price was gradually making some ground from the 29th,but then the news report that the world would take longer than first thought to come out of recession on the 2nd July.
Confidence must be pretty fragile,was expecting it to weaken yesterday and is sitting just above my stop,hmmn.

[macduffy]

Perhaps someone is sensing that the June half year hasn't been as good as the market expects.
Continual disclosure would require that if this is so we should be getting an early steer on this.

;)

[winner69]

Perhaps someone is sensing that the June half year hasn't been as good as the market expects.
Continual disclosure would require that if this is so we should be getting an early steer on this.

;)

As long as the last few months have not been a disaster EBITDA should still be close to the $85m they said ... like obviously not going doen to $70m ... but maybre $76k is OK and no need to tell

What they say about next year is important ... but it will be positive becasue NPX is a leading global resins business

[Balance]

Just post-consolidation blues.

Could be a few golden oldies looking at the $1.50 price and deciding that they will sell a few of those they got at 23 cents?

Once in a lifetime opportunity for those who believe in NPX to buy in for a five bagger by 2015 - remember the shares were trading at $30.00 a few years ago.

[Penfold]

When they were trading higher they didn't have Rob Aitken at the helm... I am waiting patiently for a change in leadership before I jump in. I am a surprised it hasn't come already given that existing shareholders have taken such a bath.

The current price seems pretty fair; but will have to wait for the next set of accounts to be published to be sure.

[Dr_Who]

I think NPX at these levels will have to prove to the market that they can meet profit forecast.

[dragonz]

Somebody just dumped 100,000 shares on to the market. I hope it isnt followed by bad news.

[kizame]

Am out. Not the 100k though,haha but not prepared to ride a downtrender.

[Balance]

Up 4% NZX and up 3.3% on the ASX so far today. A retracement to pre-consolidation levels by the end of next week is now looking possible.

Afraid not. Looks like investors fleeing the stock.

Winner69, sp action says bad news coming?

[JoeBlogs]

I think perhaps too much is being read into this other than the fact that NPX SP is simply following a general downturn in sentiment. I sold out last week at $1.55 but will look to get long again once things firm up.

[Phaedrus]

discl: Accumulating (Phaedrus will say Im doing it wrong, whatever)Of course I would!

The time to accumulate a stock is when price and OBV are rising, not falling.

The tide turned way back in May.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX77.gif

[forest]

Thanks for your chart of NPX Phaedrus. A couple of questions:

What setting for sensitivity using OBV would you use, like dayly, weekly? And would you use the same for all companies?

You have showed us how important charting is to decide when to buy and sell. I was just wondering if you think charting works for the less frequent traded companies, I am thinking of companies with trades up to 5 or 10 a day.

Cheers, Forest

[Phaedrus]

Daily OBV is best. While weekly would work, all detail is lost and signals are usually generated some days later.

Charting works just fine with reasonably lightly traded stocks. It starts to falter if a stock is not traded every day, though, and that might necessitate moving to weekly charts rather than daily. Generally speaking, the more lightly a stock is traded, the higher the volatility and the more room you have to give them to "breathe".

[forest]

Thanks Phaedrus, I value your opinion.

Forest

[winner69]

I'll post an updated chart. Note the ongoing downtrend, the steadily falling OBV and the absence of any Buy signals.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX38.gif

See how thw shareprice moved up strongly prior to full year result last year .... had also done the same before the half year Feb last year as well

Doesn't seem to behaving the same way this year .... but six weeks to go

Balance ... does this answer your earlier question

NOTE - THIS IS AN OLD CHART OF P"S AND DOESN"T ALLOW FOR THE 4 FOR 1 CONSOLIDATION

[winner69]

Some on this site said NPX prob worth about 40 cents post rights .... even this guru Macquarie analyst said 38 cents (quote below).

Which sort of says the high 40's it got to before the consolidation was a bit irrational in the first place ... punters who had bever played with NPX shares getting a bit excited over how cheap 40 cents was and all that.

Knowing that analysts generally are pretty positive people and shares invariably trade below their valuation todays price seems about right ... doesn't it


Macquarie Equities analyst Lyall Taylor said he had a 38 cent "target" price for Nuplex after completion of the share issue.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/market-data/2288201/Nuplex-shares-up-30pc

[dragonz]

According to http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090707-700530.html

Nuplex lastest shareprice woes has to do with investors moves toward defensive stocks, such as Telecom, and away from leverage stocks, such as resin maker Nuplex Industries, .

Oh well - we live in hope. :D

[JoeBlogs]

Yep, defensive plays due to deteriorating sentiment. I prefer to stand aside apart from a couple of long term holdings. Good buying opportunities for cyclicals coming up. All depends on earnings reports in the States. I'm picking 825-850 on the S&P500 before turning up again. Currently short NZD/USD in anticipation of this tanking over the next couple of weeks.

[winner69]

According to http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090707-700530.html

Nuplex lastest shareprice woes has to do with investors moves toward defensive stocks, such as Telecom, and away from leverage stocks, such as resin maker Nuplex Industries, .

Oh well - we live in hope. :D

NPX must be a defensive stock based on todays performance .... up in a down market

Spose that bit from the article is just something to say when short of news

[bull....]

yep good support around the fib levels still maintains the uptrend.

[winner69]

yep good support around the fib levels still maintains the uptrend.


Bull .. take it you are using the April low and June highs as the reference points for ypur fibs?

Did bounce of the 61.8 retracement but I notice that the 50% point has been resistance before on the way up

Just broken through that level (154) now so wo;; be interesting if to see if it can maintain that strength to the close ..... which would suggest that 154 becomes new support level. Besides going through that reistance if it holds also broken the down trend which started from the July highs

[bull....]

oh yea my original fib was on unadjusted prices , your right winner 1.42 is fib support from april lows so using fib theory as long as the price stays above it the trend up is still intact.
A break above 1.6 would be quite bullish and above 1.75 would lead to new highs.
a break below 1.4 new lows and resumption of long term down trend.

[winner69]

NPX share price a bit stronger than a week ago but interesting that it finding it hard to close above the 50% fib point that bull mentions .... tried hard yesterday but price fell back guite a bit in the afternoon to close at 154

[winner69]

NPX share price a bit stronger than a week ago but interesting that it finding it hard to close above the 50% fib point that bull mentions .... tried hard yesterday but price fell back guite a bit in the afternoon to close at 154

The 50% fib appears to be some barrier to got over ..... price dropping away from that point again ... the same point where it failed a few weeks ago

Another day maybe

[dragonz]

The 50% fib appears to be some barrier to got over ..... price dropping away from that point again ... the same point where it failed a few weeks ago

Another day maybe

We've seen a 14.5% drop in the Materials Secter (S&P 200 XMJ.ASX) since June 12Th. A drop of 5.5% by NPX during the same period.

[winner69]

Bull said so and it was always on the cards that once the Fib resistance at 154 was broken NPX would take off ... and so it has .... good stuff

[buns]

Take off/back to pre consolidation...

[winner69]

Take off/back to pre consolidation...

Next target based on Fibs is 174 ... still lower than pre consolidation

But watch those charts closely ,,,, anything can happen here

[forest]

Fib ???????
You guys are talking about fib and fibs. Excuse my ignorance but I haven't got a glue what it is but it sounds like you guys think it got some significance.
Would love to know what it is so I can follow this tread. :)
Thanks in advance.

Forest.

[winner69]

forest - Fibonacci Levels

Magic numbers that are popular for identifying support/resistance levels and reversal points

Google Fibonacci (with trading or retracement) .... plenty of stuff explaining it

[forest]

Will do Winner. Many Thanks, Forest.

[dragonz]

Bull said so and it was always on the cards that once the Fib resistance at 154 was broken NPX would take off ... and so it has .... good stuff

Posters have indicated that the stock was oversold due to what was an administrative procedure, for some weeks now. It was always on the cards that the sp would move back towards pre-consolidation price. But lets put it down to Fibonacci Levels shall we - its as good a excuse as any I suppose. :D

[Balance]

Just post-consolidation blues.

Could be a few golden oldies looking at the $1.50 price and deciding that they will sell a few of those they got at 23 cents?

Once in a lifetime opportunity for those who believe in NPX to buy in for a five bagger by 2015 - remember the shares were trading at $30.00 a few years ago.

Hope some of you took the opportunity to load up large at $1.50 and lower. This is too easy.

[dragonz]

If your interested in Bot Trading then have a look at NPX.ASX. Some Bot trying to minipulate the price in a semi-liquid stock lol.

[Grand Uber]

Sorry for some reason didn't notice the ASX part of your post, very weird trading

[bull....]

someone likes selling 7 shares at a time.

[dragonz]

7 shares every 4.5 minutes

[bull....]

must be someone from hong kong or china

[buns]

Still pretty new to this game.. Can someone explain what may be going on here? A bot setup wrong?

[winner69]

Wonder how much that dude made today ... see the size of the orders diminished during the day and was down to 1 share at a time

[Jay]

I thought there was some rule about having to buy at least $X worth, or is it because they already own at least $X worth they can buy 1 or 7 etc

[bull....]

Brokers etc can sell odd lots for people.

Anyway price at important level if 1.75 is broken nicely to the upside 2 dollars is not out of the question.

Last night in the US cyclicals were aggressively being brought , if you believe the bottom is in do i need say more.

[Jim]

I think the next resist level is $1.90

[macduffy]

Let's just say that I'm not planning to sell any of the new shares that I bought as rights at prices around 6-7c, at this stage!

;)

[winner69]

This chart made me laugh ... http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NPX.NZ&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m20,m50,m100,b&a=ss,vm,r14&c= ... pre-re-capitalisation price was over $30.00 ... And now sp is sub $2.00 ... and whats really changed in the NPX business? Sure, they were certainly overvalued at $30 but given their business units are pretty much in tact and will recover, there must be a 10 bagger in NPX sometime!

I think a 10 bagger is a very long long time away belg

Look at this way .... get back to record profits again in a couple or so years of say $70 (would be a new record) ...... eps 37 cents .... and then an really exhuberant market gives NPX a PE of 15 (well above the long term average for them) and you only get 555

Not too bad from todays price but not a 10 bagger though and an awful lot of things need to go right even to get a 3 bagger

Thats how I see it anyway

[dragonz]

Looks like the bots are at work on the ASX again this arvo.

[dragonz]

Looks like the bots are at work on the ASX again this arvo.

Same one as the 20th now releasing those shares back on to the market.

[winner69]

Its looking good Belg .. the chart that is

And NPX will be over $2 by the end of the week

Once it gets over that its all blue sky back to the good old days ... positive outlook coming up in the announcement later this month and if the past is anything to go by now is the time to buy ..... but watch the charts clsoely after the announcement (even if its good) as often the price falls away again

[Phaedrus]

I presume you want a fairly short-term chart, Belg.

NPX has been trending quite neatly giving good clear buy/sell signals from the associated trendline breaks. The 14 day Simple moving average as shown here has given very similar signals.

NPX is in a short-term uptrend and a break above the previous high of $1.91 will mean it is in a medium-term uptrend as well.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX83.gif

[Dusty]

Question from someone new to charting, RSI at 80 and stochastic at 100 would suggest to me that possibly NPX overbought and a pull back coming maybe from the 191 resistence level? I don't have access to alot of indicators because I cannot get charting software but can anyone else let me know of other positions?

[dragonz]

Question from someone new to charting, RSI at 80 and stochastic at 100 would suggest to me that possibly NPX overbought and a pull back coming maybe from the 191 resistence level? I don't have access to alot of indicators because I cannot get charting software but can anyone else let me know of other positions?



A lot of shares are punching through thier previous resistance levels at the moment. While I'll agree that short term indicators look a bit overbrought in the present market conditions you can sometimess get a strong trending share skimm along the overbrought levels for a few weeks or even months at a time.

I use williamR% as a visual tool for overbrought/oversold levels. Normally I look at 14 day settings (williams%R) or my 3-7 day swing trades and the 3 day settings(williams%R) for my day trades.

But for these momentum type trades I use the 3 day (williams%R) for my entry points. If you wait for oversold levels you could be missing good uptreads so support and resistance levels become good indicators to use in strong trending market IMO.

When or if the OBV starts tapering off then I think its probaly more prudent to pay more attention to the stochastics and MA's.

As already mentioned the 191 resistance has been breached with the next resistance @ 212.

This is the only share that Im riding at the moment as I'm starting to look around for severly underpriced A-Reits type stocks

[Phaedrus]

RSI at 80 and stochastic at 100 would suggest to me that possibly NPX overbought and a pull back coming maybe? OD, you don't say what parameters you are using, so I will assume they are the usual default values of RSI(14) and Sto(5,3).

RSI. The default value of 14 is too low, too inactive for this stock. See how it failed to trigger a Sell at the peak or a Buy at the trough? (Light blue) Using RSI(8) is more appropriate here. This gives more reliable and timely signals. (Dark blue) Note, though, that while NPX is currently at "OverBought" levels, it is yet to signal a sell. (This would require a drop below the 70 trigger line).

Stochastic. Conversely, with this oscillator, the default values are too fast, too sensitive for NPX. I have marked the 11 buy/sell signals it has indicated - too many, right? A slower Stochastic would be more applicable here.

When stocks are in uptrends, it is quite common for them to be at "OverBought" levels for extended periods of time. This is quite normal. The fact that an oscillator is at technically OverBought levels does not in itself indicate that a pullback is coming. (NPX is up 4 cents so far today). Oscillators tend to fire off a string of "Sell" signals as the uptrend progresses. Each "Sell" signal may suggest that a pullback is coming, but this does not necessarily mean that you should act on such a signal and quit the stock. It is not good practice to act on a single signal, especially that of an oscillator with a trending stock. You really need to have confirmation from trend indicators.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX84.gif

[winner69]

Over 200 tomorrow I reckon

[bull....]

Ill stick to my original forecast $3 next year.
Hopefully there announcement this month will show the worst is over for the company and markets are improving going forward.
These comments alone should justify a further rerating.

[whatsup]

$2.00 traded this morning, yeh right!!!

[winner69]

Well well ... 200 broken now

Lets keep targets to round(ish) numbers .... 250 by end of month sounds OK

[Jim]

Don't be so bullish and optimistic. The price of oil is slowly creeping up as well.

[dragonz]

Its done 50 cents in 3 weeks so another 50 in 4 weeks should be doable ;)

And hit its 200 SMA for the ist time in almost a year :D

[bull....]

as long as the oil and commodity prices stay strong i think this is good for the equity markets at the moment as suggests economic activity is going to rebound.

[buns]

I realise NPX has only just hit the $2, but it has not raced past it and it is one of those nice round landmarks where one will take profits out.

What I’m getting at is - do you see the possibility of some strong resistance at this level leading up to the result in a few weeks time? Even though it’s hinted as being positive, this has already been built into the NPX SP, hence I’m worried the SP could fall even on a solid result.

Either way I’m keen on NPX, and just looking for an entry point to accumulate. Just not sure where that is right now.

[macduffy]

The NPX SP has been in a strong uptrend since around the $1-40 mark.

I suspect that today's pause is more a case of the NZ market following the Dow and having a bit of a rest and re-assessment. If I was looking to add to my position I'd wait and see if the uptrend resumes.

Disc: Holding NPX - one of my bigger NZ holdings.

[winner69]

NPX features in thes weeks NBR ... good stuff .... provide a bit of interest and a rising shareprice .... and iif Hirst is this buillish in his outlook when the next results are announced watch out .... 200 will seem very very very cheap

Hirst essentially said Asia to make greater and greater contribution to the bottom line (there ain't any recession in Asia) Europestarting to pick up, US showing positive signs, Australia resilient and NZ will never get back to the good old days for industrial based companies

Another good day for NPX I think

[whatsup]

$2.02 and on the move grrrrrrreat on a slow day!

[winner69]

NPX closed week at 200 and maybe this week was a bit frustrating for some

Thats why I (as more of a medium to long term player) prefer looking at weekly charts and movements

NPX weekly movements over the last 5 weeks have been +5%, +10%, +8%, +4% and this week +5%

Bloody fantastic eh

I always was taken from a piece out of Fooled by Randomness by Taleb which sort of said that punters would get more disappointed the more often they look at stock prices ........ in this case of NPX over the last 5 weeks punters looking at the NPX shareprice at the end of the day would have been disappointed 36% of the time in that the shareprice didn't go up ..... but looking at only the weekly closes no disappointment at all .... 5 straight weeks of excitment

[Snow Leopard]

.....I always was taken from a piece out of Fooled by Randomness by Taleb which sort of said that punters would get more disappointed the more often they look at stock prices ........ in this case of NPX over the last 5 weeks punters looking at the NPX shareprice at the end of the day would have been disappointed 36% of the time in that the shareprice didn't go up ..... but looking at only the weekly closes no disappointment at all .... 5 straight weeks of excitment

You will probably find, looking at weekly charts, that the share price does not go up about 36% of the time and you would be better looking just monthly.
Then you will probably find, looking at monthly charts, that the share price does not go up about 36% of the time and you would actually be better looking just yearly.
Then you will probably find, looking at yearly charts, that the share price does not go up about 36% of the time so perhaps you should pick an even longer time-frame.
But guess what you would probably find?

You may also recall that Phaedrus often quotes probabilities for upside breakout failures and stuff and all that they would not be too dissimilar.

Co-incidence? Maybe!

regards
Paper Tiger :)

[dragonz]

NPX closed week at 200 and maybe this week was a bit frustrating for some

Thats why I (as more of a medium to long term player) prefer looking at weekly charts and movements

NPX weekly movements over the last 5 weeks have been +5%, +10%, +8%, +4% and this week +5%

Bloody fantastic eh

I always was taken from a piece out of Fooled by Randomness by Taleb which sort of said that punters would get more disappointed the more often they look at stock prices ........ in this case of NPX over the last 5 weeks punters looking at the NPX shareprice at the end of the day would have been disappointed 36% of the time in that the shareprice didn't go up ..... but looking at only the weekly closes no disappointment at all .... 5 straight weeks of excitment

I've sold 1/2 my holdings and and will let the other 1/2 ride. Anything over 4% per week is a great return IMHO. I'm glad I didnt lisen to those who where bearish about this stock in early June.

Amazing what a 35% return in 4 weeks can do to ones view of a stock aye Winner. :D:D:D

[winner69]

Just like the joker who goes and lives on a desert island for 10 years out of touch with the world ..... his portfolio probably went up at 10% pa (unless ke left it all in TEL) and he be happy fella when he came back to the real world .... completely unaware of the the ups and downs in the meantime

[whatsup]

$2.05 wow!!

[whatsup]

$2.08---$2.10 some rise over the last 10 days, looking good, $ 2.50 is not out of the question.

[winner69]

$2.08---$2.10 some rise over the last 10 days, looking good, $ 2.50 is not out of the question.

Did you ever doubt it ......Its called momentum eh whatsup .... and 250 is on the cards next week

Amazing how NPX seems to do well in the run up to half year and annual announcements

Watch those charts carefully though

[whatsup]

Win... have a look at the comments re NPX on Hotcopper.

[dragonz]

What about them?

[winner69]

I got suspended os many times i gave up on HC

What they saying

[whatsup]

Just a lot of more indepth comment than here on ST.

[winner69]

Just a lot of more indepth comment than here on ST.

Soory whatsup about the depth of comment on ST

Got back on HC .... must say hardly anything indepth on HC ... just loved the way the fans got down on that guy who said NPX was into boat resins and the boat market was stuffed so be careful he said .... poor bugger for making an indepth comment that prob had some credence ... I only think he was trying to help

Anyway back in NZ that 208 is holding

[dragonz]

Got back on HC .... must say hardly anything indepth on HC ... just loved the way the fans got down on that guy who said NPX was into boat resins and the boat market was stuffed so be careful he said .... poor bugger for making an indepth comment that prob had some credence ... I only think he was trying to help



Rubbish Winner. The poster you refer to made the comment that NPX's main market was the marine industry. It was kindly pointed out by myself and another that his comments were inaccurate. ;)

[winner69]

But I loved the speed and passion you showed in putting that guy in his place .... he won't be back will he ....... well done

[Ekrub]

Rubbish Winner. The poster you refer to made the comment that NPX's main market was the marine industry. It was kindly pointed out by myself and another that his comments were inaccurate. ;)

Not correct...the HC poster said this:

"Just a comment for you guys, I know this company and one of their main markets is boating".

ONE of their main markets. Quite a difference in emphasis.

[bull....]

actually boating is only a small part of the resins business not a main part of the business.

[dragonz]

Not correct...the HC poster said this:

"Just a comment for you guys, I know this company and one of their main markets is boating".

ONE of their main markets. Quite a difference in emphasis.

Yes sorry Ekrub. You are correct. Those were his exact words.

But as Bull pointed out, his comments were very inaccurate. Luckly he got some intelligent reply's that gently pointed this out. :D

[Ekrub]

As long as NPX continues it's upward trend, it doesn't matter what anyone says....all those dismal Jimmies who said the 4 to 1 consolidation would take the steam out of the recovery, strangely silent now...tee hee!

[The BOWMAN]

As long as NPX continues it's upward trend, it doesn't matter what anyone says....all those dismal Jimmies who said the 4 to 1 consolidation would take the steam out of the recovery, strangely silent now...tee hee!

Well, I think it did. But obviously it couldn't take the steam out of the recovery forever.

[bull....]

moving nicely , i see specialty chemical sector raised to attractive by goldman's and a number of US brokers upgrading there views on the sector in the last month.

[whatsup]

Up again today on a fairly quiet market , where will it settle, $2.50?

[whatsup]

Back to preopening, buying dried up for now!!!

[buns]

No one was selling this morning, I was dam close to biting the bullet at 2.19, ended out getting my last lot of NPX at 2.16.

Not to worried - bring on 2.50 and beyond

[bull....]

See dow chemical stated in there latest results asia was very strong for sales esp china.

Will be interesting if nuplex see the same strong markets happening in asia.

Anyway guess the deal over weak nz dollar wont be affecting them anymore either.

[winner69]

See dow chemical stated in there latest results asia was very strong for sales esp china.

Will be interesting if nuplex see the same strong markets happening in asia.

Anyway guess the deal over weak nz dollar wont be affecting them anymore either.

Hirst was in the NBR the other day saying that Asia is where it is for Nuplex over the enxt year or so as they wait for a decent recovery in Europe and US