NPX Chart

[winner69]

NPX on fire today as more and more get on board .... must be good result coming up next week

[bull....]

going by fbu result people may see the outlook as good and rerate the stock may reach your 2.50 winner after the result.

[winner69]

going by fbu result people may see the outlook as good and rerate the stock may reach your 2.50 winner after the result.

..... before the announcement surely

[The BOWMAN]

When will NPX have the financial year announcement?

[Ayrton]

Expected release date is August 27.

[bull....]

Looks like europe maybe pulling out of recession quicker than people thought , positive gdp last night in germany and france.

[winner69]

NPX weekly movements over the last 5 weeks have been +5%, +10%, +8%, +4% and this week +5%

Bloody fantastic eh


.... and week 6 a bloody fantastic +20%

That $2.50 before results / outlook announcement in a few weeks a certainty now

[blackcap]

Thats amazing for a stock that many were writing off not 6 months ago. I am glad I held on and took some more at 23-30 cents. Interesting to see what the result will be now that we have had this run. I dont beleive in the full efficiency of the market anyway so there is hope that this run up precedes a good announcement.

[Zito]

Bound to be some short-term profit-taking soon....people have had a good run on this horse for a few weeks....

[OldRider]

Reviewed a spreadsheet this morning that gives the returns on all transactions for the year, compared to current prices, and noticed that NPX is just a whisker off giving a 200% return for those that purchased in the right issue 4 months ago, how sentiments change!

Interestingly as well, for the year, since 1 April 2009, losses are running at 3.25% of gains. I don't remember ever having had this as low as at is before.

Predominantly purchases have been SPP's and rights issues which have all been profitable without one showing a loss, losses have come from sells that have since moved up in price, can't do much about this and not a problem so long as the purchases have done better.

[whatsup]

Why the big drop, is the ann out to the insto's on a premarket briefing and its not as good as expected?

[modandm]

aw **** - was going to sell this morning on weakness...

hopefuly will come back

looks like a freefall this afternoon...

im holding!

UPDATE:

Price recovers from lows of $2.11 back to $2.20. Trendline beginning 7 July has been tested and held (confirming trendline).

[bull....]

high volume down day , lots of profit taking (me included)
i would say still maybe more downside yet.

[modandm]

i'd tend to disagree old bull, but we shall see. Price action early today will signal future sp direction. If it gaps down will be sold off hard. if it opens higher there is a good chance we will see 250

UPDATE: Has opened lower at 2.11 -2.13. 2.11 is trendline and support -will it be broken?

UPDATE - TREND BROKEN - SOLD :(

[Ayrton]

Well broken :(. Will it start a new trend though?

[winner69]

Fib levels based on the rise from 145 to 240 are 193 and 204 for whats it worth

[Zito]

I disagree with Ayrton and Modandm. I don't see any reason to sell based on what I've seen today. The uptrend remains intact; the price would need further retracement below $2.00 for the trendline to be broken.

In any case, unless you are an intra-day trader, I don't believe you should be taking any notice of intra-day lows. As a trend follower I will only sell at end-of-day and take merely passing interest in the price action during the day. It is quite possible that NPX will close well above 212 today rendering the intra-day sale pointless. This sell-off over the last day and a half had to happen eventually but I don't see any sign of a trend reversal just yet.

[The BOWMAN]

This puppy falls so fast because it attracted so many short term traders who like to set a stop loss thing. Any new low just triggers a chain reaction of stop loss sales that pushes it even lower. Amazing to watch.

[modandm]

zito - so does that mean you ignore tails when drawing trendlines? do you just use a smooth line (closes)?

i noticed phaderus doesnt use candle plots when drawing trendlines also.

Based on the chart i am looking at (candles) the trendline is broken @ 2.11

[Phaedrus]

Belg, you should know how I feel about Trailing Stops. I don't think much of them and don't use them. They are often the last to fire and there are many better ways of monitoring trends. Awkward question - I thought you claimed to be a fundamentalist? One who is "likely to hold for quite some time and will be tolerant of swings"? You do realise that Trailing Stops are classed as TA and as such are the work of the Devil? Does the saying "Running with the hare and hunting with the hounds" seem at all applicable to you, do you think? Anyhow, enough banter. On with our quest. Maximising capital gain, in my case!

The attached chart is a combination of line and candlesticks. On 17/8 the RSI oscillators (both 8 and 14 day) gave Sell signals. Short-term traders would have acted on these, locking in their profits by selling at $2.21.

The market has not closed yet, but for the purposes of this discussion I am going to assume that the current (3.00pm) chart depicts the situation as at the Close. Price action has now broken below the trendline and also below the trailing stop giving an exit at $2.14 (?). The Trailing Stop featured here is based on the Average True Range, but is roughly equivalent to a 10% Trailing Stop as proposed by Belg. (The peak of $2.40 puts a 10% stop at $2.16.)

As Zito accurately observed, the uptrend is still intact. Dedicated trend-followers would still, quite sensibly, be holding. Go back and read Zito's post again. See how the 12 day Simple Moving Average is unbroken - only intra-day action penetrated it. See also how the Momentum (12) oscillator that has given such good signals in the past is nowhere near triggering a Sell.

Look now at today's candlestick. It is a long-legged Doji. These Bullish candles commonly mark the end of downtrends. NPX opened at $2.14, came under heavy selling pressure that dropped the price to $2.00 - then buyers arrived, pushing the price right back up to $2.14 again, where it Closed. (?)

Belg, with your 10% trailing stop, you have fallen between two stools. Not acting fast enough to get out at a good price with the active traders and yet not staying in as trend followers would. Selling NPX on a day that is, theoretically, a good point to enter.

A "fundamentalist that uses tight stops" would be a bizarre creature - neither fish nor fowl!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX818.gif

[dragonz]

I quess todays bounce is a lesson on why trailing stops will cost you far more money then what they make. Thats why brokers love them so much. More business.

I think when deciding on whether you enter a share or not you need to also look at its support/resistance levels. This can be translated into "your potential downturn versus upturn.

Since I've dropped trailing stops my returns has increased dramatically. I now set my "emergency stop" at 2% below the last support.

As to when to sell? As Phadeaurs pointed out, there are far better indicators
to determine your exit strategy, depending on what sort of trader/invester and timeframes etc.

Well done to those that picked it on the bounce

[winner69]

So are yesterdays 'profit takers' buying back in at about the same or higher prices than they sold?

Or are those losers who bought the shares 'profit takers' sold doing quite well for themselves

And Zito was right ... the up trend was never broken .... and all is looking strong again ... and the announcement is still more than a week away

[Phaedrus]

I quess todays bounce is a lesson on why trailing stops will cost you far more money then they make. Not at all. Like any tool they need to be used appropriately. In the absence of any exit system, a properly set trailing stop will save you a lot of money. It is the people with no exit strategy and no trailing stop either that go down the gurgler bigtime in falling markets.


Since I've dropped trailing stops my returns have increased dramatically. I now set my "emergency stop" at 2% below the last support. Dragonz, you haven't stopped using trailing stops at all. You have simply re-named them! Your "emergency stop" IS a trailing stop. All you have done is change the way you set them. What you are doing now is using trailing stops exactly as they should be used - as a backup or "emergency" device that will pull you out of a falling stock if all your other indicators have let you down (ie have not triggered sell signals). I'll bet that your "emergency" stop is hardly ever hit - right?



So are yesterdays 'profit takers' buying back in at about the same or higher prices than they sold?I don't know about them, but active traders that sold on the RSI signals at $2.21 would have re-entered at $2.15 on the basis of yesterdays long-legged Doji/Dragonfly Doji/Hammer candle (The Close, up 1 cent at $2.15 made it a Hammer). These are a Bullish bottom reversal formation - their Japanese nickname is "power line". The longer the lower shadow, the shorter the upper shadow, the smaller the body, the more meaningful the bullish hammer. This one was a textbook example.

[bull....]

short term trader if using rsi would have sold at the open on monday and would have brought back in on oversold readings yesterday using intraday analysis.
they would have sold into the strenght today looking for lower prices tomorrow.

[Phaedrus]

short term trader if using RSI would have sold at the open on Monday This was the situation at the Open on Monday.

Where is the RSI Sell signal?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/NPX819.gif

[bull....]

P your chart is daily i was referring to intraday.
as you know rsi can be used many ways to trade not just on crosses.

On a intraday chart rsi displayed a sell on monday then a buy when it bounced off $2 with a rsi divergence , it then had your rsi cross today at around 2.30

[Phaedrus]

Could you post a chart please Bull?
What time interval are you using?
Where do you get your intraday NZ data?
Historically, has your intraday RSI outperformed the RSI(8) shown here?

[dragonz]

Could you post a chart please Bull?
What time interval are you using?
Where do you get your intraday NZ data?
Historically, has your intraday RSI outperformed the RSI(8) shown here?

I think he probaly had his RSI set at a 3 day period which I used(in the past) to use for my day trading activities (only for uptreading stocks). I dont have the data link for NZ stocks but williams%R 3 would have seem him exit Monday and enter today on opening on the ASX.


PS rarely daytrade anymore as am working on swing trading strategies to give the same returns for less stress. This is somewhere between a bull and a Phedues, but lots of fishing and gardening in between. :D

[bull....]

Hi P i dont have photo sharing a/c anymore so cant post picture no time to set up either at this time.
I use reuters data for intraday and eod and the time frame was 30 min but same set ups worked in this instance for 5 min , 15 min.

Your chart shows the best strategy to have used on nuplex for now.
But a combination of trading and using your chart exaMPLE would have produced good results to.

[modandm]

OK - now surely this stock has broken the trendline!

closing at 2.15 today.

the issue i have with this charting is that so many stocks in the index have been moving in line over the past few weeks that they all are looking like breaking the recent uptrend.

i sold out of FBU today at a loss of $60 or so but am riding my winners nuplex and air. both looking similairly weak from a trend standpoint.

so techies 2 questions:
1 - wats your prediction for NPX in the next week?
2 - do you believe NPX will perform any different to overseas and the general nz market (albeit with slightly more volatility) and if so why?

[winner69]

Seemed to be hanging in quite well for most of the day and the fall today all happened late in the day

There was an interesting post by Phaedrus earlier on in this thread about the price behaviour in NPX leading up to half and full yaer announcements. They usually have a good run for a few weeks but about a week out from the announcement the price seemed to fall back a bit .... and even after a good result showed continued weakness ... before flattening out post the announcement and then one had to wait for the lead up to the next announcement before there was much more action.

If NPX follows this sort of action the trendline break today is ominious .... might be a few weeks of the shareprice falling back a bit

[macduffy]

If you watch closely you will see that those with true TA ability, of which I am not one, don't go making predictions on what might happen "next week".

And that's how it should be.

:D

[bull....]

special div nice

[whatsup]

Well regarded ann NPX up 8% after 10 minutes, wow $2.50 here we come , dont know how they managed a special div under the banks nose but there it is!

[macduffy]

Well regarded ann NPX up 8% after 10 minutes, wow $2.50 here we come , dont know how they managed a special div under the banks nose but there it is!

That $132.8m that shareholders contibuted to the cash issue probably had something to do with it!

:D

[Deev8]

... dont know how they managed a special div under the banks nose but there it is!


That $132.8m that shareholders contibuted to the cash issue probably had something to do with it!

It's also worth taking a moment to consider that the total dividend being paid of 8.5c per share (5c final + 3.5c special) is just 67% of operating profit after tax.

[Casa del Energia]

20% debt equity. Insanely low. Result of insane bank behaviour.

[winner69]

20% debt equity. Insanely low. Result of insane bank behaviour.

Agree ... but then the company has to take a lot of the blame for not 'managing' their bankers ... something they apparently did not do at all well.

Company performance has always been pretty solid and this year is no exception when things could have really turned to custard when you consider what has gone on in the world. Pity their mismanagement of the bankers clouded what has been a very respectable year .... but then maybe with less debt to manage and making the ship a bit leaner is a good thing .... after all they are just a chemical maunufacturing company that needs a good shake up every now and again

At 240-250 NPX priced for record profits - like double this years effort in a market that could remain subdued.

Never mind the fundamentals .... let sentiment prevail and at the the moment its all positive so the shareprice will continue to rise ..... stay with it but watch those charts carefully

[moimoi]

20% debt equity. Insanely low. Result of insane bank behaviour.

so on the strength of a 2.50% decline in revenue, 4 months ago this company was apparently on the verge of collapse.!

Undertake a heavily discounted issue, give the institutions the equivalent of a brown paper bag, in the form of a sweetheart deal that they make 300% on..

then announce a special dividend?

How about pay no dividend, pay the bank back, and get yourself a new bank, or better yet, put them on ignore ;-).!

[macduffy]

20% debt equity. Insanely low. Result of insane bank behaviour.

Big lesson in that is to watch what the covenants in your borrowing documentation can lead to, particularly if borrowing in foreign currencies with covenants expressed in NZD!

No excuses for that mistake , for anyone, from here on.

[Casa del Energia]

Agree ... but then the company has to take a lot of the blame for not 'managing' their bankers ... something they apparently did not do at all well.
...................
Never mind the fundamentals .... let sentiment prevail and at the the moment its all positive so the shareprice will continue to rise ..... stay with it but watch those charts carefully

Yes - handling of the bank relationship was not the greatest. Perhaps a fly on the wall would report fault on both sides.

And yes - can only be onwards and upwards from here… (IF) they get back to previous profit levels (48 odd mill) then that's 3 times today's announcement - that could translate to 24 c final next year… and could that mean $3 shares to 'avoid' a P/E below 5?.

At any rate the light is at the tunnel end and it's not a train this time.

And 'everyones' inventories must be empty by now - surely orders must pick up just to maintain some stocking level…

[Casa del Energia]

Big lesson in that is to watch what the covenants in your borrowing documentation can lead to, particularly if borrowing in foreign currencies with covenants expressed in NZD!

No excuses for that mistake , for anyone, from here on.

Yup.


(Once is accidental, twice is stupidity, thrice is enemy action)

[kizame]

Yep mistakes were made,probably on both sides of the coin between management and the banks.
But I think we need to remember that we are just starting to emerge from a very difficult period,and NPX were hit particularly hard.
Management have taken a bit of a swipe on here,but hind sight remember is a wonderful thing.

At the end of the day,the co. needed to shore up it's balance sheet,it issued cheap shares,got their money,investors or traders piled in, some took flight,it seems the majority on this thread have made a bit of coin on the deal.Who would have thought the shareprice would be where it is today.I think if I were holding right now I would forget about the nearterm indiscretions and be pretty chuffed with myself.

[bull....]

The only people who will be unhappy though are the ones who did not take up their rights otherwise agree with ya kizame most people will be happy.

[macduffy]

The only people who will be unhappy though are the ones who did not take up their rights otherwise agree with ya kizame most people will be happy.

I think "relieved" might be a better word.

I havn't dared to look too closely at the numbers but I know I've lost a packet on my "old" shares but recouped a bit on taking up the entitlement and buying some cheap rights.

PS Couldn't help having a look. Found I have an average cost of $2-28 so back in the money!

[Lawso]

My experience with NPX is similar to macduffy's and no doubt many others. Between 2002 and 2004 I was buying up in a range of 350 to 550, though I sold some at up to 685 last year. Prior to the 7 : 1 offer @ 23c my average buy price over the years was 274c. Now it's 211 v. today's close of 235. All excl. of divvies, of course. And I agree that the sp will keep on improving as economic recovery continues to gain strength.

[winner69]

Must have made a loss in NZ seeing no imputation credits

[Casa del Energia]

I think "relieved" might be a better word.

I havn't dared to look too closely at the numbers but I know I've lost a packet on my "old" shares but recouped a bit on taking up the entitlement and buying some cheap rights.

PS Couldn't help having a look. Found I have an average cost of $2-28 so back in the money!

My 'break even' level is $2.39 - includes cost of 'olds' plus options take up cost. Had been a holder since before the turn of the millennium.

[winner69]

Made the 250 .... amazing

See the report in the paper this morning that (unusually) analysts congratulated Nuplex on the result

Wow .. congratulations .... now if that doesn't drive more positive sentiment and send the shareprice soaring to new heights nothing well

Fundamentals mean nothing .... its all about sentiment ... and NPX is the new darling so why not stay in for the ride

[dragonz]

:D
Made the 250 .... amazing

See the report in the paper this morning that (unusually) analysts congratulated Nuplex on the result

Wow .. congratulations .... now if that doesn't drive more positive sentiment and send the shareprice soaring to new heights nothing well

Fundamentals mean nothing .... its all about sentiment ... and NPX is the new darling so why not stay in for the ride

Never a truer word said. :D

[Lawso]

posted by winner

Must have made a loss in NZ seeing no imputation credits
Imputation shrimputation. I leave that stuff to my accountant while I look after my capital.

[winner69]

All the excitment gone out of NPX has it

Probably now back in the pack of also rans and the 250 might be a struggle

If nothing to excite punters probably consolidate round current levels until the next piece of news

Up trend still in place but I feel this trade is about to end

[modandm]

good chance of another run up on housing data as it arrives.

i do concur though the excitement (i got in at 2.01) is gone for now

looking to exit on strength maybe post dividend if stays up

still a good share to hold for fundys though - if capital permitted i would hold

[modandm]

real exciting announcement for NPX today... NOT

how pathetic the HR manager buys 1600 shares for like 4k
If I was working with that dude i'd give him ****.
what a dork - did anyone explain to him that its $30 brokerage till 10k?

on top of that the dude works for the co and doesnt know the sp is going to do as well as it has last 3 months... jeez id own alot more that 5650 shares:D

[winner69]

Maybe part of the exec incentive scheme ... soon to be sold

[bull....]

trending nicely , 2.50 resistance if taken out would be highly bullish and likely head us towards my original $3 + target

[modandm]

some nice buying in NPX over the past week - im still holding :) ended up selling my AIR to fund other investments - turned out the right choice

agree with others about the 250 test ahead one to watch over next week

god its amazing to see FBU so high now - I have been so AX focused the last month I got a real shock when I saw it today at 830-40 something. Guess the market is fully believing the housing led recovery.

Interestingly went to a presentation and Q&A with David Copely last night - a partner in NZ's only hedge fund (strat = long short). He explained that they were still quite bearish overall for the NZ and AX markets and have been through the last 6 months even.
He was bullish on energy and agriculture.

Personally im bearish on the property market in general - lots of for lease signs around - retail is still very weak - and commercial yeilds have fallen. I believe the domestic housing market is making a dead cat bouce on these low floating rates and REINZ ramp talk. Once interest rates up and all my gen (20-30) have the confidence to go do the OE the market will definately weaken. That and baby boomers cashing out as they retire - realising that their 3% yield on investment property really isnt the best option.

Don't think this really affects NPX anyway i'm just rambling. :D

[kizame]

some nice buying in NPX over the past week - im still holding :) ended up selling my AIR to fund other investments - turned out the right choice

agree with others about the 250 test ahead one to watch over next week

god its amazing to see FBU so high now - I have been so AX focused the last month I got a real shock when I saw it today at 830-40 something. Guess the market is fully believing the housing led recovery.

Interestingly went to a presentation and Q&A with David Copely last night - a partner in NZ's only hedge fund (strat = long short). He explained that they were still quite bearish overall for the NZ and AX markets and have been through the last 6 months even.
He was bullish on energy and agriculture.

Personally im bearish on the property market in general - lots of for lease signs around - retail is still very weak - and commercial yeilds have fallen. I believe the domestic housing market is making a dead cat bouce on these low floating rates and REINZ ramp talk. Once interest rates up and all my gen (20-30) have the confidence to go do the OE the market will definately weaken. That and baby boomers cashing out as they retire - realising that their 3% yield on investment property really isnt the best option.

Don't think this really affects NPX anyway i'm just rambling. :D

Less property investment,less resins sales for NPX

[Baddarcy]

Less property investment,less resins sales for NPX

True, but remember NZ only makes up 11% of NPX revenue. Australia is where it is at. Also looking at the share price of FBU ($5 to $8) and JHX ($3 TO $7) recently the market is expecting a building boom, which certainly won't hurt NPX.

My gut tells me that the NPX price rise over the last couple of weeks is all about the dividend record date next week. Current holders are not selling as they are waiting for the div and there are buyers looking to get into the stock before the record date so the price is rising.

[winner69]

That 250 is becoming hard to breach eh

Still trending up but momentum slowing.

Anticipation of the full year announcement was the driver of the increased shareprice but that announcement was a month ago - was 235 prior to announcement and if you allow for the dividend not much more a month later.

Getting impatient I am and thunk this trade about to end ... back in 4-5 months when the price will go up again in anticipation of of another good result. Announcement driven (for good or bad) until then I fear

[winner69]

There have been a few recent closes above the top band -- apparently a sell signal if that happens

Bollinger bands tightening says that volatility is likely to increase .... as the MA lines are starting to flatten out my feeling about a break out - if there is going to be one - would see a greater probabllity of downwards action

[Grand Uber]

record date for the dividend was friday wasn't it? you would assume a drop of the value of the distribution wouldnt you?

[Lawso]

Yes. Ex div on Monday, 5cps due to be paid on 16/10.

[Lawso]

In Oct. '08 NPX paid 23cps.
This was followed by the 7 : 1 SPP in April and the 1 : 4 consolidation in June. You work it out - I can't.

[bull....]

Currently consolidating with 2.50 the top of the range and as some are saying bollingers are flat indicating sideways action at this stage.
If it helps npx in aus made a lower high which usely indicates weakness ahead in the price.

On another note afr noted npx poised for expansion in asia.

[modandm]

wow got dumped today for sure - insto selling you would think BUT
volume is pretty low and no announcements to speak of... hmm hard to get a read on this. was it ex div? oh lol - im stupid thought it was end of october. gone ex div today 8.5c

Im still holding - almost forgot about this one and got a fright today - got killed trading the ax last week - lost my wins from the prior 2 weeks which was very annoying. this market is looking increasinly hazardous imho - glad that good ol nzx defensive central holding ok

[Baddarcy]

Yeah i'm holding also. It did drop a fair bit on Monday, touched 220 early but has been on an upwards trend since then finishing at 235 yesterday.

Next bit of news should hopefully be a profit prediction from NPX at the AGM. This should be good news hopefully.

[bull....]

holding up very nicely considering ex div

[Baddarcy]

holding up very nicely considering ex div

Yeah i'm still pleasantly surpised i was expecting a bigger drop more towards 210 - 220 range. But since it has gone Ex-Div both the price and volumes have been fairly healthy, closed at 239 yesterday only 3 below the pre dividend close of 242.

Looking forward to the AGM in a few weeks now, might be some good news coming?

[Baddarcy]

Positive comments from John Hirst about strong earning growth in thier Asian region in a press release today and a promise of an earnings update at the AGM on the 6th.

[winner69]

Typical Hirst announcement .... good stuff but not really that specific ... must have been worried about the shareprice .... and wanted to make sure punters turned up to eat the sausage rolls at the AGM ..... so a bit of a teaser .... he loves doing that

Not that specific so one needs to do a bit of extrapolating

He says ...'Strong earnings growth' ... and 'This has resulted in Asia doubling its proportion of Nuplex's group profit so far this year'

Strong earnings growth = more profit. Last year Asia looked like they made about 25% of NPX earnings (thers a chart in one of their presos that indicate this) .....say $6m ...... didn't say double but lets say they double it this year to $12m ... the 25% Asia of NPX earnings now doubled (did say .... say to 50% ..... implies total earnings $24m ...... logic OK? ..... can't be because thats the same earnings figure we started with .... whoops ... that means the rest of the world made no money

See what I mean about being clever and not too specific .... but one or analysts will have the real numbers

Anybody else work out what the announcement really means?

Spose have to go to the meeting to find out the real story

Still holding .... just though as the chart is not totally convincing .... but keeping an eye on it daily ... but thanks John ... you prob kept the momentum going for another week or two

[Baddarcy]

Are the sausage rolls at the AGM those loverly spicy indonesian one? (If not, Im not going!)

Almost certainly not, most people that go to AGMs are the "silver" / "no" hair brigade, they generally don't do spicy.

[whatsup]

Are the sausage rolls at the AGM those loverly spicy indonesian one? (If not, Im not going!)

So Belg,,, if I see a tall good looking middle/older aged MALE around the spicy Indonesian sausage roll platter then I will know what you look like (for future reference -mind you )!!!

[winner69]

Guys I have emailed Nuplex



Re: AGM November 6th

I don't know whether you keep tabs on what people are saying about Nuplex by looking at forums such as Sharetrader (www.sharetrader.co.nz)

Just in case you don't there are one or two loyal shareholders who are worried about what the standard of catering might be at the AGM next week.

Of particular concern is whether you are will be providing 'lovely spicy Indonesian' ones instaed of the heavy rather tasteless kiwi fare. In light of the good news about how well Asia is performing for Nuplex at the moment such a request seems timely and rather appropriate.

As to myself I'd rather go with asparagus rolls and a few kransky sausages. Just maybe something even a bit classier now you are loaded up with all those millions of shareholders cash.

I note that the start time is 10.30am but I'm sure we can get a few extra questions in if need to to stretch the meeting out to a respectable time for lunch.

Looking forward to see what eventuates - Nuplex's reputation is on the line and many will be reporting what the fare is like.

[Halebop]

Guys I have emailed Nuplex
Re: AGM November 6th

I don't know whether you keep tabs on what people are saying about Nuplex by looking at forums such as Sharetrader (www.sharetrader.co.nz)

Just in case you don't there are one or two loyal shareholders who are worried about what the standard of catering might be at the AGM next week.

Of particular concern is whether you are will be providing 'lovely spicy Indonesian' ones instaed of the heavy rather tasteless kiwi fare. In light of the good news about how well Asia is performing for Nuplex at the moment such a request seems timely and rather appropriate.

As to myself I'd rather go with asparagus rolls and a few kransky sausages. Just maybe something even a bit classier now you are loaded up with all those millions of shareholders cash.

I note that the start time is 10.30am but I'm sure we can get a few extra questions in if need to to stretch the meeting out to a respectable time for lunch.

Looking forward to see what eventuates - Nuplex's reputation is on the line and many will be reporting what the fare is like.

Haven't felt the need to post much lately and having a crap day today but feeling much lighter after this post! Thanks W69! :D

[bull....]

Be good if the price breaks above 2.50 before agm make those sausage rolls even tastier.

Wonder if we will here anything about aquisitions in asia

[winner69]

Very kind of you whatsup. :) Alas, Belgarion is very average to look at (but looks far younger than his actually is) and is frequently overlooked as being anyone of consequence.

Asparagus rolls ... Another one of favourites ... great call W69!

Got a response .... to remind me that the meeting was 10.00am and 10.30am as I thought and no mention of the catering

Maybe no lunch at all .... just a cuppa and pikelets and cream

[Lawso]

Maybe no lunch at all .... just a cuppa and pikelets and cream
Like J Goulter's promise of "round wine biscuits" at an AIA agm a few years ago.

[Baddarcy]

Well today is the big day. What do you think, good news or bad?

Personally leaning towards good, been hearing lots and lots about firms restocking thier inventories recently.

[whatsup]

Belgie.. are you out there? Spicy what ?

[Grand Uber]

In June of this year we established a budget in the region of $100 million
EBITDA, up around 10% on the prior year but still down 17% on the 2007/08
year. With a stronger than expected first quarter, and October also another
very profitable month, we are becoming increasingly confident that we are
likely to exceed budget. While the result will clearly be heavily dependent
upon the factors outlined earlier, current indications are that EBITDA will
be in the $100 - $110 million range. With low debt this would translate into
an approximate after tax operating profit of $36 - 44 million, up by 48 - 78%
over last year.

[Baddarcy]

Sounds fairly good to me, a decent lift over last year, not up to the year before but in the right direction anyway.

[winner69]

So thats 19-23 cents per share for 2010 earnings

So at 250 on a forward PE of 11 to 13 .... about right for an industrial chemical company .... which is slightly higher tha what it has traded at over the years ... prob reflecting the new founded optimism in NPX

Then again there will be some good press coverage of this so the price might go up a bit more ... opportunity to close out this trade I feel

Not at AGM ... Sylvia reminded me it started at 10 am but did elaborate on the catering ... webcast will have to do with my own home made asparagus rolls

[winner69]

NZ stuffed so lets move on to greener pastures eh .... officially

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3038352/Nuplex-may-quit-NZ

[macduffy]

NPX's NZ business represents 11% of sales so it's inevitable that the focus goes elsewhere. An inevitable consequence for any NZ company that manages to grow internationally, eg Lion Nathan, NUF, Michael Hill (sooner or later).

We should see it as a positive for NPX.

:)

[whatsup]

Market likes the AGM , $3.00 next target.

[modandm]

the reason to move is not becasue NZ is stuffed... even though it kind of is IMHO welll at least against AUS

they are considering moving the head office cost base away from NZ so it can earn some NZ profit pay some NZ tax and then pay NZ shareholders fully imputed dividends.

Nice update from NPX. a PE of 9-12 and 3-5% growth prospects or more depending on china is solid fundy stock to hold for me. Will see it move up from here towards $3 I believe.

I believe NPX is a better exposure to the industry than FBU with its poor board (Deane) and management ego --> Formica was terrible. + its cheaper, simpler to run, and pays better dividend

[macduffy]

I wouldn't bet on any fully-imputed dividends in the future, wherever NPX has its domicile.

The fact is that the NZ business is contributing a steadily diminishing proportion of total revenue and profits. A more profitable future NPX will earn most of its profits overseas, where it will pay most of its tax. At best, we might see modest partial imputation of future dividends.

[modandm]

I wouldn't bet on any fully-imputed dividends in the future, wherever NPX has its domicile.

The fact is that the NZ business is contributing a steadily diminishing proportion of total revenue and profits. A more profitable future NPX will earn most of its profits overseas, where it will pay most of its tax. At best, we might see modest partial imputation of future dividends.

your on the money there. any imputation is better than none though.

definately see as a positive sign for the co as you do

[Lawso]

I'm very upbeat about NPX. Never mind about the imp. credits, the growth prospects are impressive, esp. in China. It's more truly a global operation than anything else on the NZX, IMHO, and the management team knows its stuff, despite some errors at board and senior management level. Those of us who took up the 7:1 offer have done brilliantly and I believe there's still plenty of upside in the sp.
Besides, the lunch wasn't too bad today.

[bull....]

Very positive announcements today , caused the price to break above 2.50 resistance.
If Wall st has good night may move higher next week towards my $3 dollar target early next year I reckon.
Since the rights issue mess Nuplex has done an outstanding job in my opinion of providing guidance on the company , this is probably reflected in the good support for the shares now which by the way have been a great investment in the last 6 odd mths.
Keep it up Nuplex ra ra ra

[Anna Naum]

NZ stuffed so lets move on to greener pastures eh .... officially

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3038352/Nuplex-may-quit-NZ

Difficult to see why they can not make real money in NZ when they import so much material and the $ is so high vs US. To blame it on head office costs and imputation credits seems a bit soft.

[macduffy]

A bit of a plug here for NPX.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=7199

[bull....]

Failed breakout above 2.50 not good , guess most good news out now so im out nice stock last 6 mths but better op,s around.

[Baddarcy]

Failed breakout above 2.50 not good , guess most good news out now so im out nice stock last 6 mths but better op,s around.

Yeah i'm in the same boat, sold 75% of my holding between 261 and 263 after the recent AGM. I have kept the remaining 25% with a plan to keep it long term as i think long term it will still trend up as the profit grows over the next couple of years. The price does seem tethered to 250 at the moment, but that won't last forever.

I am a bit of gambler when it comes to stocks so i like my big risk, big reward (or otherwise) stocks, NPX has done well for me, now for my next gamble (oops i mean investment) PRC or PRCOA even :-)

NPX has a history of paying good dividends also (yeah i know it is mostly what got them in trouble in the first place, but hey i think they have learned the lesson)

[percy]

i think we will see the aussie's buying npx for the yield.they get the tax credits.the high dividend yield should drive up the sp so we all gain.

[Baddarcy]

Looks like all the profit takers have had their go,over all a fairly good week for NPX back up to 259 almost back up to the 263 peak after the AGM.

[whatsup]

Why the jump just as I sold my shares today.???

[whatsup]

Why the jump just as I sold my shares today.???

New guidenance out this morning which must be good looking at the jump in price , can some one please post them?

[bull....]

guidance up 10% on previous gfuidance

[Baddarcy]

New guidenance out this morning which must be good looking at the jump in price , can some one please post them?

NZX/ASX release
Nuplex EBITDA
Operational restructure to drive further growth
Nuplex Industries Limited, the
announced that the company is increasingly confident that its
2010 will exceed its previous
interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA)
with the previous guidance of NZ$100
to be in the range 24 - 28 cents.
‘Global business conditions continue to strengthen
said Mr John Hirst, group managing director. ‘
substantially reduced cost base
‘While demand remains significantly below the peak
generally recovered from the low point of last financial year and gives every sign
gradual improvement into the foreseeable future
of growth in both volume sales and profit. Al
restructuring to match demand as well as
Operating and fixed costs have been materially reduced
cash flow remains strong. New pro
broad front.
‘Some uncertainty remains about the impact of rising raw material costs as we move
towards the second half. While
cautious in our outlook and will update the market
in maintaining margins at the time of the interim profit announcement.
To drive further growth, Nuplex’s operations have been restructured into two business
divisions, each reporting to a chief operating officer.
Mr Sam Bastounas, previously
appointed chief operating officer of Nuplex Functional Materials & Specialties,
the group’s resin products for the composites and paper markets, as well as its specialties
businesses. He is responsible for the division’s strategy, business and profitability
Nuplex operations in Australia and New Zealand.
Mr Rob Harmsen, previously
operating officer, Nuplex Resins.
of the group’s coating resins business and for Nuplex operations in Asia, Euro
East, Africa and the Americas.
Mr Charles Northcote, previously
appointed group general manager, p
officers to identify growth oppo
processes.
17 December 2009
guidance increased 10%
international industrial resins and specialties group, today
results for the year to 30 June
guidance. The company now expects its
d to be NZ$110 - 120 million
-110 million. Earnings per share (eps) are
strengthen, with ongoing signs of growing demand,
With margins being maintained and a
base, we currently expect to report a strong first half result.
emand in financial year 2007/08
future. Asia remains the standof
All regions are showing the benefit
of ongoing strict expense and cash management.
reduced, contributing to the profit uplift
product developments continue to attract new business on a
hile prices are being increased as costs rise,
on growth expectations and our success
announcement.’
group general manager–functional materials, has been
group general manager–resins, has been appointed
fficer, He is responsible for the strategy, business and profitability
group general manager–specialty products, has been
planning & strategy and will work with the chief operating
opportunities and coordinate the group’s business planning
earnings before
0 million, compared
arnings expected
demand,’
08, it has
of a
-out region in terms
l benefits of
uplift, while
duct , we continue to be
which includes
and for all
chief
Europe, the Middle
rtunities
‘This restructuring of our operations will enable us to maximise their performance and
capitalise on opportunities during the next stage of Nuplex Industries’ growth,’ said Mr Hirst. ‘’
Nuplex Industries Limited is one of the world’s top ten manufacturers of resins for coatings and
composites, and one of Australasia’s top four distributors of specialty products for the construction,
chemical, plastic and life sciences industries. It has manufacturing operations in ten countries across
Australasia, Europe, North America and Asia, and more than 50 per cent of revenue comes from
outside Australasia. Nuplex is listed on the Australian and New Zealand exchanges.
For further information, please contact:
John Hirst +61 2 9666 0331
Media enquiries:
New Zealand: Amanda West, Merlin Consulting +64 9 585 1519 / +64 210 439 674
Australia: Ashley Rambukwella, Financial & Corporate Relations +61 2 8264 1004

[Casa del Energia]

Wow - market sure liked that. I'm still putting my eyeballs back in their sockets after seeing the lastest quotes.
Whatsup - You just sold your shares? .. whooops, you must be feeling a little but ill now.

[whatsup]

Wow - market sure liked that. I'm still putting my eyeballs back in their sockets after seeing the lastest quotes.
Whatsup - You just sold your shares? .. whooops, you must be feeling a little but ill now.

Bad for my trade today but good for the balance of my holding,
What a difference a hour makes!!!

[Phaedrus]

Why the jump just as I sold my shares today.???More to the point, why did you sell when NPX is in a nice ongoing upward trend channel?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX1217.gif

Consider these points :-
(1) NPX is in a good uptrend.
(2) The confirmed trendline is unbroken.
(3) The OBV continues to rise.
(4) The OBV trendline is unbroken.
(5) The Stochastic Oscillator had just given a BUY signal and was rising.
(6) The RSI had given a BUY signal and was rising.

Whatsup, you were selling in the face of considerable technical strength. The chances that NPX would continue to rise after you sold were very high.

[root]

More to the point, why did you sell when NPX is in a nice ongoing upward trend channel?

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX1217.gif

Consider these points :-
(1) NPX is in a good uptrend.
(2) The confirmed trendline is unbroken.
(3) The OBV continues to rise.
(4) The OBV trendline is unbroken.
(5) The Stochastic Oscillator had just given a BUY signal and was rising.
(6) The RSI had given a BUY signal and was rising.

Whatsup, you were selling in the face of considerable technical strength. The chances that NPX would continue to rise after you sold were very high.
Can't quite see enough of your chart to see what's holding those green lines up.

Disc: Fundamentally a chartist.

[RazorX]

What is a 10 bagger?

Question two: I have never done this before but is Selling to open on the NPX a good idea at the moment? The price rose 20 cents in one day so its probably going to come down with a bang. (After which it will continue a steady rise) If my theory is correct I could sell to open say $1000 and when it drops buy to close and end up with more shares for less. Anyone ever done that?

Except you can't do that... at least not with Direct broking. Dang I can with the NZX virtual demo.

[futurist]

Question two: I have never done this before but is Selling to open on the NPX a good idea at the moment? The price rose 20 cents in one day so its probably going to come down with a bang. (After which it will continue a steady rise) If my theory is correct I could sell to open say $1000 and when it drops buy to close and end up with more shares for less. Anyone ever done that?

Except you can't do that... at least not with Direct broking. Dang I can with the NZX virtual demo.

I bought in at $1.65 and there were numerous time I thought the same - I could sell off at good news and then bought back later when it adjusts. Especially during the time when it fluctuated around $2.40 ... it appeared as a no brainer to sell high and buy low within a 10c range.

But then I realize I am not really good at re-entering, coz after selling off a share at a certain price somehow you will only feel just to buy back if it drops at least 5%-10% or even more (that is obvious not rational based on any analysis, just my personal feeling). And because of that, I fear I'll miss the buy back of a share that I still believe in. So to make thing simple for myself, I decide not to do that, despite how attractive the alternative is. I'll only sell when I want out to invest something else.

For instance, if I sell it at $2.60 yesterday (which is kind of the upper-end of the range between $2.50-$2.63 of the recent movement) I'll definitely miss the $2.80 today. Yes maybe tomorrow it will drop back to $2.70, but I will feel better than I sell all of them and it goes up to $2.90.

I believe it all comes down to your personality in investing shares. Actually I made the same mistake before with RBD when I bought in at 65c and sold it off at 97c. I wish I had listened to Snoopy (not only on RBD but his attitude in share investing as well).

[macduffy]

What is a 10 bagger?


A share that increases ten times its purchase price is commonly called a ten bagger. Very rare but it does happen, eg NZ Refining many years ago achieved something like an 18 bagger from memory. Oh happy days!

My current best would be BOW at about a six bagger.

:)

[bull....]

EPS - 21c
P/E - 14
Share Price $3

Thats my pick

Nice juicy gains of 70 - 80% post consolidation + Divs , S...t hope im right.

Im actually learning to be a fundamentalist lol

[blackcap]

What is a 10 bagger?

Question two: I have never done this before but is Selling to open on the NPX a good idea at the moment? The price rose 20 cents in one day so its probably going to come down with a bang. (After which it will continue a steady rise) If my theory is correct I could sell to open say $1000 and when it drops buy to close and end up with more shares for less. Anyone ever done that?

Except you can't do that... at least not with Direct broking. Dang I can with the NZX virtual demo.


What the hell is selling to open?

[RazorX]

What the hell is selling to open?

"Short selling is selling stock that you do not own; it can also be selling stock which you have borrowed.

The idea of 'shorting' is that you can sell now at a higher price with a view to buying it back in the future at a lower price for a net profit.

On NZX virtualTrading, short selling is permitted in Equities and Futures (note that margin may apply). In options, only covered shorting is permitted."

Source: http://virtual.nzx.com/education/key_concepts/

I was hoping I could do this with a live account but I don't think you can. In theory I could sell NPX at 2.80 and then buy when it drops back to its 100 MA line.

[blackcap]

"Short selling is selling stock that you do not own; it can also be selling stock which you have borrowed.

The idea of 'shorting' is that you can sell now at a higher price with a view to buying it back in the future at a lower price for a net profit.

On NZX virtualTrading, short selling is permitted in Equities and Futures (note that margin may apply). In options, only covered shorting is permitted."

Source: http://virtual.nzx.com/education/key_concepts/

I was hoping I could do this with a live account but I don't think you can. In theory I could sell NPX at 2.80 and then buy when it drops back to its 100 MA line.

Ahha the terminology changes as one ages. I used to be a stockbroker but had never heard of selling to open. But Razor, just because NPX went up 20 cents in a day does not mean it will drop today. Its holding its own even with a weak US market. Be careful with shorting as it WILL bite you in the bum. Used to do if for fun and daily but out of that game for a while now.
You can short for real with CFD's but do check out the costs before getting involved.
Regards

[macduffy]

Ahha the terminology changes as one ages. I used to be a stockbroker but had never heard of selling to open. But Razor, just because NPX went up 20 cents in a day does not mean it will drop today. Its holding its own even with a weak US market. Be careful with shorting as it WILL bite you in the bum. Used to do if for fun and daily but out of that game for a while now.
You can short for real with CFD's but do check out the costs before getting involved.
Regards

Shorting involves borrowing stock so that one has something to sell!

It's always puzzled me why anyone would want to lend their stock for this when the purpose is to drive the price down! Even for a fee.

If I had a suspicious mind I'd start wondering if all these loans are made with the full knowledge of the beneficial owners.

;)

[Baddarcy]

Shorting involves borrowing stock so that one has something to sell!

It's always puzzled me why anyone would want to lend their stock for this when the purpose is to drive the price down! Even for a fee.

If I had a suspicious mind I'd start wondering if all these loans are made with the full knowledge of the beneficial owners.

;)

Maybe an example i can think of is, my wife inherited some JHX shares a few years back, she will never sell those shares regardless of what the share price does as there is a family link back to JHX from a few generations back.

I think in an instance like this where the share price is irrelevant to the owner then there might be a case to lend for a fee to a short seller.

But i see your point MacDuffy, if there was no reason why you wouldn't sell the shares, you would have to be bonkers to lend them to someone who you knew was going to use them too drive the share price down, unless you were planning on buying some more and wanted someone to do the dirty work for you?

[RazorX]

Ahha the terminology changes as one ages. I used to be a stockbroker but had never heard of selling to open. But Razor, just because NPX went up 20 cents in a day does not mean it will drop today. Its holding its own even with a weak US market. Be careful with shorting as it WILL bite you in the bum. Used to do if for fun and daily but out of that game for a while now.
You can short for real with CFD's but do check out the costs before getting involved.
Regards

Thanks blackcap. Looks like I can't anyway - Direct Broking doesn't have those options.

Meanwhile I'll be very happy and hold onto my shares in NPX. Bought at 2.34 so there has been a steady increase since then. :)

[Phaedrus]

Question: Is Selling (short) on NPX a good idea at the moment? Razor, NPX is in an uptrend. Unless you want to get into very short term countertrend trading I would strongly advise you to forget actions like that - even if it is possible to do in NZ.


The price rose 20 cents in one day so its probably going to come down with a bang. (After which it will continue a steady rise) Sez who? That's baseless supposition - and just one of many possible scenarios.


In theory I could sell NPX (short) at 2.80 and then buy when it drops back to its 100 MA line.Right, in theory you could. The odds are, though, that you would end in deep sediment. NPX is in an uptrend, remember, and shorting up-trending stocks is not recommended especially for inexperienced traders. Say (as is quite possible) this uptrend continues for a long time. The price may well not come anywhere near the 100 MA line for literally years. Remember too that you MUST eventually buy to cover your short - while the price continues to rise. Remember also that when buying long, your maximum loss is limited to your initial investment, but that losses on short sales are potentially unlimited. Capiche?

The use of a moving average to provide entry/exit signals is a fairly common approach, although other indicators often fire earlier. You might be interested to know that backtesting 20 years of NPX data tells us that use of a 68 day moving average is about twice as profitable as the 100 day MA that you propose. Here are some more unpalatable facts for you. Signals from moving averages such as these are wrong roughly twice as often as they are right. They can (and have!) thrown 7 consecutive wrong (losing) signals. You would be very foolish indeed to base your exit strategy on a single moving average indicator.

Razor, the trend is supposed to be your friend. Go Long on up-trending stocks and go Short on downtrending stocks.

Get on-side with the market - don't fight it.

[RazorX]

Hi Phaedrus

Thanks for the heads up. I guess that was not one my my brightest ideas. Luckily Direct Broking doesn't let you short trades like I was talking about. (Might have actually done it otherwise)

I having been practicing (With a demo account) Forex trading with an MT4 platform. Now on that one I use 3 MA's to give possible entry exit signals. A 100 MA for long term trend and a 3 and a 5 MA to indicate when a possible trade is happening in the trend. I have two questions if you don't mind:

1) Would this sort of setup work with shares as well?
2) You mentioned the 68 MA was better for shares than the 100 - would it also be better in Forex trading?

Thanks

Razor

[Phaedrus]

RazorX, while many TA tools are applicable to both FX and share trading, FX really is a different animal, generally requiring a rather different approach.
I suggest you begin by learning all you can about candlesticks then read up on the Ichimoku charting system. Any FX questions you have should be directed to the Forex forum.

[whatsup]

Sale at $3.00 !!!! boy what a ride this has been , go you good thing!!

[Baddarcy]

The sellers seem to have dried up the last couple of days and the buyers have appeared.

A bit of a conspiracy theory, but i have noticed this happen a few times in the days before an announcement comes out.

This stock doesn't seem to be able to put a foot wrong at the moment.

[macduffy]

Now 3.05! ... Hands up all who have now made 100% or more in less than one year.

You mean those of us who bought the rights at 6 and 7 cents?

:D

[bull....]

Isnt it 300% odd if you brought the rights

[macduffy]

Isnt it 300% odd if you brought the rights

Not quite but no-one's complaining!

;)

Rights, say, 7c plus appln money 23c = 30c x 4 for one consolidation = $1.20.

Say 150% on a current SP of $3.00.

[Baddarcy]

Up another 9c today, not huge volumes, but hey not complaining!!

Any thoughts where the next resistance might kick in?

[whatsup]

$3.10 and still climbing!!!

[macduffy]

Up another 9c today, not huge volumes, but hey not complaining!!

Any thoughts where the next resistance might kick in?

This is all uncharted territory now, the consolidated post-issue SP not having visited these heights before. Any technical reason(s) to expect/identify resistance levels?

[winner69]

Good stuff eh even though I don't really like NPX at this price

Been willing to sell since it was around 240 odd but the chart says DONT so still hold and will do so until the chart says sell.

This is a typical case of fundamentals and charts working together. NPX never really looked like it was going broke ...... it was still making money but just had too much debt and management handled that badly .... and then people panicked .... giving many an opportunity .... and even though accussed of being a 'vulture' I dont mind ... I wasn't the only one taking the opportunity that came about ..... and since buying the chart has ruked the day

Overpriced in my opinion even allowing for futire prospects ... but then again NZ investors need to invest in something and NPX could become a long term hold for me just like FBU was a few years ago .... I don't know whether this will be the case but market sentiment will reign supreme

[winner69]

Not quite but no-one's complaining!

;)

Rights, say, 7c plus appln money 23c = 30c x 4 for one consolidation = $1.20.

Say 150% on a current SP of $3.00.

Are those who held NPX share a year ago and who stumped up in the rights issue ahead of the game yet?

Or is it only the opportunistics (vultures) making these big gains

[winner69]

Are those who held NPX share a year ago and who stumped up in the rights issue ahead of the game yet?

Or is it only the opportunistics (vultures) making these big gains

The chart on DB would suggest they are still under water

However they use a theoretical price at the time the rights started trading

If you had 1000 shares this time last year when they were trading at $3.00 and took up the rights issue and with the consolidation you now have 2000 shares at a cost of $2.30 (my quick calcs) ..... so they are wealthier than a year ago

But remember this time last yearNPX had already fallen from over $7 (old method) so long term buy and hold investors are still signicantly out of pocket

[macduffy]

Are those who held NPX share a year ago and who stumped up in the rights issue ahead of the game yet?

Or is it only the opportunistics (vultures) making these big gains

That would depend on individual entry prices pre issue.

In my own (vulturistic) case I had an average cost of around $4.50 pre issue. But I took up the issue and bought more rights, ending up with an overall consolidated cost of around $2. I havn't looked at a "what if" scenario if I hadn't bought the rights. Water under the bridge as far as I'm concerned!

;)

[Lizard]

Overpriced in my opinion even allowing for future prospects ...

On a good day, I see it worth about $3.45, but that includes allowing for more profit upgrades from here. Plenty of other NZ shares trading at larger discounts, so it wouldn't be high up my "to buy" list at the moment.

However, also agree that as a long term hold it could still work out into a tidy performer. At least there's some liquidity in it - something that rules out many NZ shares for some buyers.

[Grimy]

Are those who held NPX share a year ago and who stumped up in the rights issue ahead of the game yet?

Or is it only the opportunistics (vultures) making these big gains

I bought in late Nov '08 at $3.85 and $3.44. With everything that's gone on since my shares owe me $2.64. So while I could have done a lot better (as many have/will point out) I'm not unhappy with my lot.

[Phaedrus]

Still hold and will do so until the chart says sell.Here are 10 (ten!) suggestions for you, W69 :-

Trendline
4 Oscillators
2 Trailing Stops
On Balance Volume
Moving Average
Market Strength colour coded price plot.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX112.gif

[winner69]

Phaedrus - fantastic zet of charts. I am not so sophisticated as you so really appreciate seeing all this together in one place. NPX seems to be behaving itself it really well at the moment and even though you don't say it no reason to sell at the moment is there.

My the looks of the OBV people are buying .... does this mean a true contrarian is selling (and not accumulating)

My methods are rather more rudimentary, mainly because not that many stocks to keep any eye on. Generally the free stuff is good enough to keep an eye on the trends, usually using moving averages (medium to long term onew). When it starts lookig like the uptrend is coming to an end of losing strength then I start monitoring a bit closer, usually in excel because I like using the ATR as the inidcator to lock in profits and i can easily clalcualate and cjhart those myself.

With NPX it was getting to touch and go stage around the 230 and 250 marks but as your chart clearly shows it just hung in before another burst up.

Still believe NPX is (fundamentally) overpriced at the moment and I would be buying at these prices for decent long term investment returns (higher the valuation the lower the returns theory etc) but heck as long as sentiment is so favourable why quit when you are ahead.

[winner69]

Here are 10 (ten!) suggestions for you, W69 :-

Trendline
4 Oscillators
2 Trailing Stops
On Balance Volume
Moving Average
Market Strength colour coded price plot.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX112.gif

Showing the Market Strength colour coded price plot for a individual stock seems to suggest that you have set up the parameters that drive it in Metastock so you can use them anytime you want .... on any chart you produce .... yes?

If so thats an amazing feat and probably took a bit of perserverence to achieve such sophisticated outcomes. I bet the Metastock developers never envisage anybody doing this with the system.

Great stuff .... any chance of monetizing the effort

[Phaedrus]

Even though you don't say it, no reason to sell at the moment is there. Dead right. 10 indicators, no sell signals.


By the looks of the OBV people are buying .... does this mean a true contrarian is selling (and not accumulating)Yes.


As long as sentiment is so favourable why quit?That's the bottom line - even for fundamentalists, in my opinion.


I like using the ATR as the indicator to lock in profits and I can easily calculate and chart those myself.Not many people can do that! Even a simple 10% trailing stop would be better than nothing though - something most anyone could calculate.


Showing the Market Strength colour coded price plot for an individual stock seems to suggest that you have set up the parameters that drive it in Metastock so you can use them anytime you want .... on any chart you produce .... yes? Yes. The whole thing boils down to a single new indicator and a single new "Expert Advisor". These can be applied to any stock, Index, or currency.


It probably took a bit of perserverence to achieve such sophisticated outcomes. Sure did. It is actually more sophisticated than it appears in that the individual standard indicators that make up this composite indicator do not have equal input. The better their performance, the more votes they have and the more influence they exert on the end result.
The actual performance of this new indicator is in fact no better than any of the other 9 indicators plotted here, but where each of these needed a carefully selected period of 16 - 66 days to suit NPX's volatility level, this composite indicator has no parameters to set. It is completely hands off. Automatic. Totally objective.
One of the things that I really like about this thing is the fact that it suggests/offers/signals many suitable entry points (light green) where latecomers who missed the initial Buy signals could join the uptrend. None of the other indicators featured here are all that much help in this regard.


I bet the Metastock developers never envisaged anybody doing this with the system.Too true. It should have been much easier to set up than it was. MetaStock is not the best software in the world once you get past a certain level of complexity. This thing took hundreds of lines of code to set up.


any chance of monetizing the effort?Maybe.

[Zito]

Gee, that's impressive Phaedrus. I use Metastock too, but not nearly to your level of sophistication. Nice to see someone able to use the software to such a level. Hats off to you.

[Lawso]

Posted by winner69

But remember this time last year NPX had already fallen from over $7 (old method) so long term buy and hold investors are still signicantly out of pocket
In case anyone other than myself is interested, here's my experience of buying and selling NPX since 2002:
My net cost of buys minus sales, excl. dividends, is $1929.
My holding today is worth $25,120. Not exactly "significantly out of pocket".
The SPP which gave me 28,000 shares @ 23c (later 1 : 4) and subsequent appreciation has proved a huge windfall.

[percy]

lawso
1929
no
28,000@.23 is 6446
may be your cost was $19,290.
a naughty makes all the difference.

[Lawso]

Percy: My maths is bad but not THAT bad. You're not taking into account my various transactions over the years - highest buy price was 554; best sale price was 685.
But I have to agree that a naughty makes a difference!

[winner69]

Another profit upgrade .... jeez old man Hirst loves teasing the market doesn't he .... pity he wasn't so open when things got really bad

never mind .... the shareprice will take another leap up tomorrow ... eps estimate at 34 cemts time 12 equals $4 ... yep $4 ... already uo 6% in Australia

isn't market sentiment a wonderful thing .... just follow it and not rely on fundamentals .... and isn't it funny there often is a bit of strong buying a week or so before a positive announcement

[biker]

What a lovely story the 'recovery' of this company is turning out to be!

[percy]

What a lovely story the 'recovery' of this company is turning out to be!

And I am enjoying these upgrades.Was a long year with npx.Must have been even longer for John Hirst.With the extra capital raised he will be able to capitalize on growth regions.

[winner69]

Might buy another bundle at the open tomorrow and see what happens

[winner69]

Lee has raising his forecast earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the year ending June by 9% to $115 million. He has also raised his target price by 9% to $3.28.
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/434b5101/daily-sharechat-nuplex-industries.html

I have NPX @ about $3.30 (and includes upgrades) so we're largely in agreement, Liz. W69, without upgrades I agree that its looking pretty overvalued.

Would I sell tho? Yeild's a factor and if they can do 2 x 8.5c then yields @ about 10% at my entry price - so probably not until i-rates start rising - plenty of time until that happens.

Doesn't pay Lee to guess does it ... a few days later and hey EBITDA guidance is $135m ... and Lees guess is blown out of the water

You'll need to buy some more now Belg .... go with the flow man ... don't be a contararian :rolleyes:

[whatsup]

Like where Belg----.?

[macduffy]

Yes, good news.

But I'd be a bit cautious nevertheless. John Hirst admitted that they couldn't forecast the depths of the downturn and that they were having similar difficulty assessing the upturn! Or words to that effect.

I'm holding.

[bull....]

nice announcement must be one of the standout companies on the nzx at the moment , shame i only hold a small amount know

[macduffy]

Yes, good news.

But I'd be a bit cautious nevertheless. John Hirst admitted that they couldn't forecast the depths of the downturn and that they were having similar difficulty assessing the upturn! Or words to that effect.

I'm holding.

The market likes it and that's what counts at present.

Up 23c on a down day!

:)

[RazorX]

NPX is still going up. Currently sitting at 3.37 (Last time I checked) I suddenly find myself wondering at what point I should exit and retain the gain. Does $4 sound reasonable or is it not likely to hit that target? I find that buying shares is easy - knowing when to hold or sell is a bit trickier :)

[percy]

NPX is still going up. Currently sitting at 3.37 (Last time I checked) I suddenly find myself wondering at what point I should exit and retain the gain. Does $4 sound reasonable or is it not likely to hit that target? I find that buying shares is easy - knowing when to hold or sell is a bit trickier :)

I am like you not knowing when to sell.I find i allways sell too early.
I have found to my cost it is better to hang on too long.I would think P's charts will give us sell signals.I think we should remember this company 's balance sheet is very strong and I think they will expand into Asia.They still have property in Auckland and Sydney that they will sell some time.
The Aussies will get franked dividends and high yeild will drive sp up in aussie ,which will in turn drive nz share price.I think we will over time see more Aussie's on the share register.They accept higher PEs and lower divies.
So I think we should sit back and enjoy the ride.
PS.Lawso may help us as he has done really well with this stock.

[macduffy]

It's taken me a long time to learn this particular lesson but I won't be selling any while the uptrend continues.

;)

[Lawso]

I can't add much to your very sound analysis, Percy. Except to say to you, Razor and others: "Why sell?" Unless there was some urgent need for cash, or somesuch, NPX is one stock that I intend to hold long-term. There are certainly no Sell signals at the moment.

[percy]

Of couse I meant npx would expand further in asia as they are already there.
I would not be surprised if they went to india sometime.

[percy]

Wrong.Good article in today,s NZ Herald.More expansion in Asia.

[macduffy]

Just as an aside, I notice that the NPX SP is up 40% in the last three months.

I hold.

[macduffy]

NPX has made what appears to be another modestly sized acquisition.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=10340

[macduffy]

And the good news keeps coming for NPX.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3501401/Nuplex-boosts-full-year-guidance

I hold.

[macduffy]

It seems inevitable that NPX will change its domicile to Aust sooner or later and judging from the chairman's comments in the recent half yearly report that time mightn't be far away.

"....This process is continuing and we are now focussing on the structure and possible timing of a transition, should we consider a change to be in the best interests of shareholders."

With only 10% of sales in NZ v 40% in Aust and NZ EBITDA of about $2m v around $30m it seems to make sense. A pity to lose another company's main listing from the NZX but that's the reality of the business. Incidentally, the days of NZ imputed dividends from NPX seem to be well behind us now.

[percy]

.
The Aussies will get franked dividends and high yeild will drive sp up in aussie ,which will in turn drive nz share price.I think we will over time see more Aussie's on the share register.They accept higher PEs and lower divies.

All of head office overheads come out of nz profit which leaves nothing .so days of imp divie are gone.
I agree it's a pity to lose another company's main listing.Who would have expected just a few years ago that only 10% of sales today would come from nz.
I wonder where Asia and yes i know they are not there yet,but India and south america.will be in 5 years time.?

[macduffy]

I've just received my Computershare statement showing the accretion of NUF shares from dividend reinvestment.

Pleasing to see that the shares were priced at $3.17, now showing an 11% increase at $3.52.

[bull....]

securities commission suing

[macduffy]

securities commission suing

Yes, ironic, isn't it!

The Securities Commission is taking this action to protect the rights of shareholders generally and we should applaud this. But NPX will now spend taxpayers' money defending itself and its directors and will potentially pay fines and face individual action from a few select "disadvantaged" shareholders who happen to have bought during the period in question.

The company probably has insurance to cover most of this but if claims are made can expect to pay higher premiums in future. Market reaction can only be negative.

Might be time to re-assess this holding.

[Silverlight]

Announcement



The board of Nuplex Industries Limited is very disappointed that the New Zealand Securities Commission has decided to issue proceedings against the company and its directors in respect of the timing of Nuplex’s disclosure to the market early in 2009. This matter relates to disclosure in connection with discussions between the company and its banks to review one of its debt covenants. The company and its directors deny that there was any breach of continuous disclosure obligations and will defend themselves vigorously against the Commission’s allegations.

The company’s negotiations with its banks were successful and led to them loosening the senior debt cover ratio (SDCR) following the company’s results announcement for the half year to 31 December 2008.

The company takes seriously its continuous disclosure obligations and remains of the view that it has properly complied with them at all times. The company has cooperated fully with the Securities Commission, providing all relevant information and explanations in response to its questions, both in interviews and in writing. Regrettably, the Commission’s interpretation of the continuous disclosure required by the listing rules and the Securities Markets Act differs from the company’s directors’ considered judgement at the relevant time.

Discussions took place with the company’s banks to loosen the SDCR covenant, effective as at 31 December 2008. These occurred as soon as the company had a clear understanding of the impact of the global financial crisis on demand and of the rapid devaluation of the New Zealand Dollar. The banks indicated they would consider loosening the covenant and, following completion of their internal processes, that is what they did. Given the banks’ positive attitude, and after consideration by all board members, the board made the judgement in January 2009 that there was nothing material to disclose beyond the disappointing half year financial information.

Business conditions during the 2009 financial year were unprecedented across the world, and in January 2009 the company was in uncharted waters. The board exercised reasonable, commercial judgement on disclosing the successful SDCR negotiations with the banks in the interests of the company and its shareholders. The board’s view was, and remains, that while the company’s negotiations with the banks remained incomplete, the company was complying with NZX listing rules in not making a disclosure. Furthermore, the board believes that disclosure while the negotiations were confidential and incomplete could have prejudiced the company, its shareholders and the banks.

No further statement will be made at this stage.

[bull....]

Directors will have indemity insurance , i dont think it will effect the company much in the long run.

[beacon]

The Securities Commission is taking this action to protect the rights of shareholders generally and we should applaud this. But NPX will now spend taxpayers' money defending itself and its directors and will potentially pay fines and face individual action from a few select "disadvantaged" shareholders who happen to have bought during the period in question.

Let's hope class action against directors eventuates. I support Sec Com action. Keep them honest. Unless the small guy's trust in the integrity of the system is regained, NZ capital markets will remain ignored ...

[peat]

even though the defence statement posted sounds kind of convincing wouldnt it be normal to make a statement such as 'we are currently in discussions with our bankers etc.... " and if that is the normal process then quite simply they weren't continuously disclosing.

it does seem odd how commissions choose their targets sometimes... but these days the hunt is on full swing.

were there any signs of insider trading , price movements prior to the release ? all transactions around that period should be reviewd.

[winner69]

even though the defence statement posted sounds kind of convincing wouldnt it be normal to make a statement such as 'we are currently in discussions with our bankers etc.... " and if that is the normal process then quite simply they weren't continuously disclosing.

it does seem odd how commissions choose their targets sometimes... but these days the hunt is on full swing.

were there any signs of insider trading , price movements prior to the release ? all transactions around that period should be reviewd.

The NPX shreprice started falling in August 2008 and even then it took a while for them to come clean about actual performance, let alone the troubles they were having with the banks

if i recall an analyst mentioned they were having troubles with their banks which was denied .... then in an earnings guidance on 28/11/08 they said 'Despite the downturn in performance Nuplex remains in compliance with the financial covenants of its funding facilitie' ... on 2/2/09 no mention of trouble with the banks when they had another downgrade .... but they did sort of own up to not meeting some convenants on 19/2/09 when asked if they knew of any reasons why the share price was falling so fast

What amazed me at the time was this little bit ......'The speculation from First NZ Capital that there may be a breach of bank facility covenant is not, in fact, inaccurate so the market is not misinformed' .... so FCNZ had it right and had told the market so the market is informed even though we had not the market

Somehow I have the feeling that the attitude (don't like using that word starting with arr with a gant on the end) of Hirst and Chairman Aitken through the whole process has peeved a few and this is payback time

Whatever .... Phaedrus's chart would have said that holding NPX shares at the time was a bad move so nobody should say they got hurt by the poor disclosures etc ... just they had too much faith in directors and senior management

Will be interesting to see what happens .... hope the commission is pretty determined with this

[winner69]

In saying that the NPX board is made up very experienced professional directors ... prob couldn't get a better board

Just goes to show that all this is a big game for the big boys and girls who with all good intent go ahead and diligently do their job .... and collect heaps on the way through and stay in the old boys and girls network

NPX have always been optimistic in their announcements .... P has several times pointed out solid price movements leading up to announcements .... but at the end of the day they have not been as outrageous in some of their statements as some companies do

So really if not watchng the charts holding share in any company is really an act of faith eh .... even NPX with their 'highly respected' (quote from this thread) management who run this 'well managed' company

I say make an example of them anyway ... and fine NPX zillions .... just so others might think a little harder and earn their big fees

[winner69]

I think they'll blame the accountant ... after all he was in his final days and a new man had been appointed

[macduffy]

I say make an example of them anyway ... and fine NPX zillions .... just so others might think a little harder and earn their big fees

Obviously not a NPX shareholder!

A pity that a way can't be found to punish the (alleged) guilty parties without penalising shareholders.

[winner69]

Obviously not a NPX shareholder!

A pity that a way can't be found to punish the (alleged) guilty parties without penalising shareholders.

Macduffy .... yep a shareholder .... been on the sell list for a while now but the chart says don't sell yet

I know the in and outs of NPX quite well .... is a quality good old fashioned chemical company .... but thats all it is .... therefore the approach has to be one of trading prices rather than thinking of being an owner.

[percy]

The NPX shreprice started falling in August 2008 and even then it took a while for them to come clean about actual performance, let alone the troubles they were having with the banks

if i recall an analyst mentioned they were having troubles with their banks which was denied .... then in an earnings guidance on 28/11/08 they said 'Despite the downturn in performance Nuplex remains in compliance with the financial covenants of its funding facilitie' ... on 2/2/09 no mention of trouble with the banks when they had another downgrade .... but they did sort of own up to not meeting some convenants on 19/2/09 when asked if they knew of any reasons why the share price was falling so fast

What amazed me at the time was this little bit ......'The speculation from First NZ Capital that there may be a breach of bank facility covenant is not, in fact, inaccurate so the market is not misinformed' .... so FCNZ had it right and had told the market so the market is informed even though we had not the market

Somehow I have the feeling that the attitude (don't like using that word starting with arr with a gant on the end) of Hirst and Chairman Aitken through the whole process has peeved a few and this is payback time

Whatever .... Phaedrus's chart would have said that holding NPX shares at the time was a bad move so nobody should say they got hurt by the poor disclosures etc ... just they had too much faith in directors and senior management

Will be interesting to see what happens .... hope the commission is pretty determined with this

I was unhappy at the time with the company saying there was no problem,while First NZ Capital said there was.In a later post you mentioned the company secretary retired. I have allways thought he had things under control when he didnot.I will be pleased to have the air cleared.We must remember this is interesting history that will have no affect on future growth ,which will lead to higher earnings.We know the company is in good shape and with an experienced Aussie to led us onwards and upwards looking backwards is not going to stop growth.

[winner69]

Macduffy .... yep a shareholder .... been on the sell list for a while now but the chart says don't sell yet

I know the in and outs of NPX quite well .... is a quality good old fashioned chemical company .... but thats all it is .... therefore the approach has to be one of trading prices rather than thinking of being an owner.

Well the chart said sell the other day .... NPX has been a very good trade over the past year .... nearly had to sell in the 240's according to the chart so getting the best part of another buck was pretty good

Latest fiasco has taken $100m off the NPX market cap .... ouch .... thats the market telling them

With this reaction maybe another chance to trade NPX prices .... ie sentiment irrespective of the fundamentals rule in this case ... I have a feeling there is more to play out

Hard to imagine that the world is getting more 'moralistic' and not wanting to invest in companies which allegedly have failed in basic governenance issues .... but a $100m hit to market cap is a pretty strong message

Just reinforces what I have said on the Recession doing it job thread

[macduffy]

Hard to imagine that the world is getting more 'moralistic' and not wanting to invest in companies which allegedly have failed in basic governenance issues .... but a $100m hit to market cap is a pretty strong message

It's not surprising that the SP has taken a hit but I would interpret the drop more as a concern that NPX management will be distracted by the charges - with lesser effects from the possible monetary penalty and the "moralistic" angle.

Maybe directors were tardy in keeping the market informed - and this will no doubt become clearer as matters progess - but I can understand their reticence while negotiations with the banks were proceeding.

[percy]

just a great buying opportunity to buy more.The fundamentals have never been better.

[macduffy]

just a great buying opportunity to buy more.The fundamentals have never been better.

The market agrees.

SP up almost 5% today!

[winner69]

NPX always did say achieving this years forecast was subject to ongoing improvement in global demand .... inferring no shocks along the way

I feel that not even Asia in the short term will mitigate shortfalls they must be experiencing in Europe and the US .... and even Aust is not looking too good at the mo

Further weakness in the share price to come

[bull....]

People probabl;y under est slowdown in china next year, if you look at stock markets in asia they have been pricing in a slowdown for months now.
I always had a valuation of 3 dollars the fact it went a bit higher was a bonus but the trend looks to have turned down now .

[percy]

Must be hard time to be a manufacturer at present.I would expect NPX will only be looking to expand into growing markets.A least they are in Asia.I sort of thought we were through the worst ,but it just continues to be tough. Impossible to do forward projections.

[Anna Naum]

Presentation just posted, reads well. Confirms on target for record profit.

http://file.nzx.com/000/019/3790019.pdf

[Silverlight]

Nuplex vs Sec Com (http://www.chapmantripp.com/Pages/Publication.aspx?ItemID=748)

[Baddarcy]

Report info looks ok, but is it just me or is that the most poorly created looking report you have ever seen produced by a NZX 50 company?? It seems full of formatting errors and looks like it was thrown together in about 30 seconds with no proof reading done at all.

Hope they run the company better than they write reports!!!

[winner69]

Tasmyn in The Herald gives NPX a rave
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-finance/news/article.cfm?c_id=12&objectid=10651010&pnum=0

...... but Lord Lucan adds this comment

You should not allow Nuplex's sleight of hand to pass as good performance.

Investors deserve to be reminded that Nuplex's reduction in debt and change of cash position is almost entirely as a result of the new investment obtained from the public after they lost the old investors' money.

Investors holding shares prior to Nuplex's disastrous 2008 performance had their capital value shrunk and their holdings diluted through Nuplex's poor performance AND its public offering.

They can't blame it on the credit cruch because Nuplex's poor acquisition and divestiture strategy had already resulted in virtual bankruptcy. Nuplex is in a commodity business, supplying low cost materials to the building industry, they have no differentiation, no economic moat, and high capital replacement costs, a company like this is always going to boom and bust over the year

[percy]

The Herald article and company's update confirm the company is in a strong position.I take Lord Lucans comments with a grain of salt.Company has gone from a company whose NZ turnover has gone from 100% to 10% of turnover.Successful takeovers have added technology and a world wide market.

[Phaedrus]

In the chart on page 48 of this thread, 10 indicators were suggested to W69 as providing him with NPX sell signals. Here is an update of that chart with the same indicators, same parameters, etc.

The red arrows mark Sell signals. While these were spread over a couple of months, they were all at around roughly the same exit price, with most firing at $3.35. The same indicators gave an average entry price of $1.62 with most firing at $1.69.

An extension of the OBV trendline as drawn in the original chart gave an isolated, unconfirmed buy signal way back in January (magenta arrow). Because it is not good practice to act on any single signal this should, of course, have been ignored. Anyone acting on it would have sold at $3.25.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX612.gif

Interesting points to note :-
(1) The Average True Range based trailing stop outperformed the simple percentage based trailing stop.
(2) The trendline break/OBV Sell signals triggered at $3.33 over a month before all the rest.
(3) Indicator choice is NOT critical - all 10 worked pretty well.
(4) All those Sell signals, an ongoing downtrend and fundamentalists have been advocating buying.
(5) Market sentiment means absolutely nothing to some people!

[macduffy]

Investors holding shares prior to Nuplex's disastrous 2008 performance had their capital value shrunk and their holdings diluted through Nuplex's poor performance AND its public offering.



So what public offering was that!

My recollection is that capital was raised through a pro-rata rights issue to shareholders.

Admittedly it was tough on shareholders who couldn't raise the necessary to take up the rights but at least those rights had some value.

NPX weren't the only company to be caught out by the weak NZD - and AUD in a lot of cases - having taken what seemed like a fairly sensible precaution to borrow in the currencies in which it did most of its business, but then remembering that its borrowing covenants were expressed in NZD. Yes, they made mistakes but we've been over that ground pretty thoroughly now.

[root]

In the chart on page 48 of this thread, 10 indicators were suggested to W69 as providing him with NPX sell signals. Here is an update of that chart with the same indicators, same parameters, etc.

The red arrows mark Sell signals. While these were spread over a couple of months, they were all at around roughly the same exit price, with most firing at $3.35. The same indicators gave an average entry price of $1.62 with most firing at $1.69.

An extension of the OBV trendline as drawn in the original chart gave an isolated, unconfirmed buy signal way back in January (magenta arrow). Because it is not good practice to act on any single signal this should, of course, have been ignored. Anyone acting on it would have sold at $3.25.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/NPX612.gif

Interesting points to note :-
(1) The Average True Range based trailing stop outperformed the simple percentage based trailing stop.
(2) The trendline break/OBV Sell signals triggered at $3.33 over a month before all the rest.
(3) Indicator choice is NOT critical - all 10 worked pretty well.
(4) All those Sell signals, an ongoing downtrend and fundamentalists have been advocating buying.
(5) Market sentiment means absolutely nothing to some people!

Keep the charts coming PH, great stuff. Every time I see one of yours I end up adding another technical (after a bit more reading). In this case I sold on April 16th for 3.29 (rightly or wrongly) based on RSI and OBV, EMA 10,30 confirmed this for me on the 19th. I was tempted to wait for the Slow Stochastic to suggest a better exit but in the end got nervous and sold.

[percy]

phaedrus.thank you for chart update.I have not sold as it has been above the 180day MA on Stocknessmonster.It has only just broken it,however it looks to be on the way up again.

[winner69]

Good one Phaedrus

As you know I do my own ATR calcs and this told me to see mid April .... just as the mass of red arrows show on your chart

Still overpriced on fundamentals but trading the NPX price over the years has been kind too me so keep the chart up to date every week

of course to the believers Lord Lucan talks a lot of crap .... but to large extent (except getting public offerings and capital raisings mixed up) he is right - as he says 'Nuplex is in a commodity business, supplying low cost materials to the building industry, they have no differentiation, no economic moat, and high capital replacement costs, a company like this is always going to boom and bust over the years'

So true

[percy]

Huge growth from 1956 says Lord Lucan was a Toff tosser.You would be better to read up on his friend Sir James Goldsmith who knew to invest in well managed,well financed companies with good technology.

[Phaedrus]

I have not sold as NPX has been above the 180day MA.....That is a very slow MA to use, Percy. You might be interested to know that, backtesting 20 years of NPX data, a 38 day EMA gives about three times the profit of a 180 day MA. This optimum moving average is very close to the 40 day EMA used in the above chart.


I sold on April 16th for 3.29 (rightly or wrongly) based on RSI and OBV, EMA 10,30 confirmed this for me on the 19th.There is nothing at all wrong with an exit at $3.29 - it would have fallen right in the middle of the 10 exit signals shown on the chart above. The 10 EMA / 30 EMA crossover you have been using performs quite well, but it can be improved. Over 20 years of backtested NPX data, 8 EMA / 27 EMA crossovers gave 50% more profit than 10 EMA / 30 EMA crossovers.

[percy]

That is a very slow MA to use, Percy. You might be interested to know that, backtesting 20 years of NPX data, a 38 day EMA gives about three times the profit of a 180 day MA. This optimum moving average is very close to the 40 day EMA used in the above chart.

There is nothing at all wrong with an exit at $3.29 - it would have fallen right in the middle of the 10 exit signals shown on the chart above. The 10 EMA / 30 EMA crossover you have been using performs quite well, but it can be improved. Over 20 years of backtested NPX data, 8 EMA / 27 EMA crossovers gave 50% more profit than 10 EMA / 30 EMA crossovers.

Phaedrus. What does the E in EMA mean? Yes 180 day you have proved to be wrong,however I am, and have been impressed by this company for near 30 years and unless it does something that I donot like I will not sell it.

[Phaedrus]

Exponential. There are many different types of moving average with the most commonly used being Simple and Exponential.
180 days is not so much "wrong" as sub-optimal.
You certainly are a steadfast shareholder, Percy. Such unswerving loyalty has its price, though. You would have made truly spectacular profits - and given most of them back to the market.

[percy]

Exponential. There are many different types of moving average with the most commonly used being Simple and Exponential.
180 days is not so much "wrong" as sub-optimal.
You certainly are a steadfast shareholder, Percy. Such unswerving loyalty has its price, though. You would have made truly spectacular profits - and given most of them back to the market.

Thank you.Unfortunately you are correct.

[winner69]

Below 26 year NPX chart showing major trends over that time

On assumption that share price reflects both company performance and market sentiment the ups and doens reflect what Lord Lucan said in his comments posted above

Give NPX their due .... they have never reported a loss over the duration of the chart.

Thay have made many acquisitions, sold a few companies and been to the market a couple of times to raise capital .... they are now a global company and their turnover is a lot higher ... those things have driven the company performance

They have remained bullish and at times the market has risdden this positive sentiment and sent the share price to elevated levels (prob not justified)

Yes percy, they are a solid company .... but just a solid chemical company that rides the cycles they are in ,,,, but remember low margins with ongoing capital requirements will never lead to spectactular growth

Solid yes so worthwhile having in a portfolio .... but probably not to hold for years

[root]

PH. Will try tightening up the EMA to 8/27, 10/30 did appear a tad slow in this case. Cheers.

[percy]

Craigs rate NPX as a buy.Net Profit 2010 65mil ; 2011 69mil; 2012 76mil.
EPS 2010 34c ; 2011 36c ;2012 40c.
PE 2010 8.6 ;2011 8 ; 2012 7.3
Div yield 2010 6.2% ;2011 6.6%; 2012 8.3%
I do look forward to posters telling the charts are saying buy!!!!
No more sell signals please!!!! May be a case of hold until death do we part!!!!!!

[percy]

Below 26 year NPX chart showing major trends over that time

On assumption that share price reflects both company performance and market sentiment the ups and doens reflect what Lord Lucan said in his comments posted above

Give NPX their due .... they have never reported a loss over the duration of the chart.

Thay have made many acquisitions, sold a few companies and been to the market a couple of times to raise capital .... they are now a global company and their turnover is a lot higher ... those things have driven the company performance

They have remained bullish and at times the market has risdden this positive sentiment and sent the share price to elevated levels (prob not justified)

Yes percy, they are a solid company .... but just a solid chemical company that rides the cycles they are in ,,,, but remember low margins with ongoing capital requirements will never lead to spectactular growth

Solid yes so worthwhile having in a portfolio .... but probably not to hold for years

Sorry missed this post.Fair comments.Hope the new uptrend continues.Allready through the 5 and 10 day MAs,but it is the 38day one that counts.!!

[winner69]

Nuplex apparently talking to Orica about merging their chemical trading businesses and then hocking them off

Get rid of the dog building and construction parts as well and then NPX is a true resins manufacturer

Then we would see how good they are

[winner69]

Must be true these stories

Would say somebody would be serious about their construction materials bits as well .... as long as they take a fair price and get greedy as they have in the past .... only peanuts in the big scheme if things but cause a lot of distraction

[Lizard]

Would say somebody would be serious about their construction materials bits as well

Lots of potential in their construction materials. I'd happily buy it if I had the funds.

[Lizard]

Must be true these stories


Refuting speculation. "Nuplex is not involved in discussions with Orica on combining or merging its chemical trading platforms"

[winner69]

Refuting speculation. "Nuplex is not involved in discussions with Orica on combining or merging its chemical trading platforms"

HEY Lizard .... You know where there's smoke there's fire

One day

[percy]

NPX looks poised.But I do not know wether that is up or down as I can not get a 38day MA.Sitting on 30 day and 180day but below 60,90 and 120 day MAs.I suppose I will find out in a few days!!

[winner69]

For what's it worth most global chemical companies are pushing their prices up

Say that supply can't keep up with demand ..... demand up because manufacturers are starting to stock up on raw materials after last yaers destocking while supply constrained because the chemical chemials haven't geared themselves up from closing down some plants etc.

TiO2 up more than 10% but don't know the full extent of resins and other like materials

[h2so4]

Considering NPX.

I see it is listed on both exchanges. Can I buy on one and sell on the other? Or is that stupid?

[percy]

Considering NPX.

I see it is listed on both exchanges. Can I buy on one and sell on the other? Or is that stupid?

You have to get the registery to transfer from one country to the other.Takes a little time,cannot sell until you have registered in the country you are selling in.If you are trying to do it ask your broker if they can arrange it for you.

[h2so4]

You have to get the registery to transfer from one country to the other.Takes a little time,cannot sell until you have registered in the country you are selling in.If you are trying to do it ask your broker if they can arrange it for you.

Might be a way to bypass the banks when transferring funds from one country to another?

[macduffy]

Might be a way to bypass the banks when transferring funds from one country to another?

Well, you'll be paying brokerage instead!

A couple of risks. Price movements between transactions; exchange rate movements; unexpected trading halts?

[POSSUM THE CAT]

H2SO4 & Macduffy have done that through Direct Broking by changing the settlement currency two lots of brokerage far cheaper than bank fees and better forex rates as well Unfortunately can not cash out at Australian end due to the demise of the macquarrie account.

[OldRider]

Percy:
To shift from ASX, If you are Chess registered for ASX shares you need to work through your broker, who will charge a fee to remove from Chess to issuer sponsored,which is necessary prior
to registering with NZ registry, if the other way NZ registry will transfer to issuer sponsored on ASX without fee, broker will then transfer from issuer sponsored to Chess without charge as well.
It takes a while with a hard copy letter or two as required, there is as well the exchange risk, it can work for or against.

Be careful with ownership name for issuer sponsored into Chess, names must be precisely the same, if the initial NZ registration name
and the following ASX issuer sponsored name is only one letter different from Chess registration name
the transfer will not be made, adding another step into the process getting the names correct. Been there done that.

I have done this before, using ANZ Bank shares if I recall correctly, but think it would only be worthwhile for a substantial amount of money and perhaps as well only with
shares altready owned.

[percy]

NPX discussion's gone very flat recently .... Bit like the sp :)

FY Thursday 26, August. Thoughts? (Yes, we'll have another "Well positioned/poised/etc")

PE ratio (DB) says ~ 15. Seems about right in the current environment but previous history suggests a bit low.

Yield @ current sp about 2.9% (but far better for holders siting on for a 10-bagger ;) and must be double or tripple bagging currently) - yes a divi increase might be nice.

Building pinch in some markets are likely to lead to a "too cloudy to call" forecast and SP should give a bit more up allowing those who wish too to top up.

I am "holding myself at the ready"for a good result.Recent SP weakness has me concerned.With such strong balance sheet I have been looking forward to expansion into India,and would like to see them back in fast growing Brasil.I would also like to hear progress on sale of Auckland and Sydney properties.

[winner69]

PE ratio (DB) says ~ 15. Seems about right in the current environment but previous history suggests a bit low.



NPX will report a bottom line of $60m plus a bit ..... ie about 32 cents a share - a PE of about 9

NPX for years traded at about 10 to 11 times earnings - what good old fashioned chemical companies should do eh

So currently NPX priced 'about right' and should increase over the next year in line with profit increases .... which according to the the expects are a modest 3%-4%

Interested as to why you think a PE of 15 for NPX 'seems about right in the current environment' .... thats a pretty hefty PE for a company like NPX. Interestingly the last time NPX had a PE of 15 was when its shareprice was about its highest ever .... before promises and expectations did not come to reality and it all turned to custard for them and shareholders

Like percy looking forward to the announcement ... wonder if the comments will have the real positive spin that Hirst always put on things

[h2so4]

I think we are in for a great result. Might surprise.

This one feels good.:)

[corporateraider]

I am expecting eps at 36 cents, at the top end of the last guidance, on the basis that this company generally delivers. In time I think that there will be good synergies to be achieved from the last acquisitions.
On that basis I continue to hold.

[percy]

Phaedrus.
I trust you had a good holiday.I noticed NPX gave buy signals while you were away,but on your return the down trend has returned.
When are you going on holiday again.?

[Phaedrus]

Anytime you like, Percy - just say the word!

NPX is not in a downtrend - it is trendless in a tight $2.77 - $3.08 trading range and has been for over 3 months, so far. (Chart supplied on request).

I do hope you haven't slipped into bad habits and become lax while I have been away - you were progressing so well......

[percy]

Anytime you like, Percy - just say the word!

NPX is not in a downtrend - it is trendless in a tight $2.77 - $3.08 trading range and has been for over 3 months, so far. (Chart supplied on request).

I do hope you haven't slipped into bad habits and become lax while I have been away - you were progressing so well......

Starting to.Glad to have you back,and your sound advice.Trust you had a good holiday.Been wet/cold/wet/cold in ChCH.

[winner69]

Over the years there has been many instances of strong buying of NPX leading up to an good profit announcements

Phaedrus pointed this out a while ago .... the charts he showed demonstarted this very well .... but we did not mention the word insider when discussing .... rather we put it down to informd punters doing a bit of speculation

Maybe under the new regime behaviours have changed ..... and the 36 cents a share the acid man mentioned is being kept under tight wraps.

[winner69]

I am expecting eps at 36 cents, at the top end of the last guidance, on the basis that this company generally delivers. In time I think that there will be good synergies to be achieved from the last acquisitions.
On that basis I continue to hold.

I said 32 plus a bit ... you said 36 .... and it came in at 34 cents

Prob $5 share before Christmas?

[whatsup]

I said 32 plus a bit ... you said 36 .... and it came in at 34 cents

Prob $5 share before Christmas?


NPX, Back on track after the horrible chapter in its long history is closed, great opportunity to those who bought in at the rights issue and share holders who took up their entitlement. well done all holders.

[macduffy]

Yes, a good result and the market reacted accordingly.

I wish I had a few more of these "good old fashioned " companies in my portfolio!

[winner69]

NPX, Back on track after the horrible chapter in its long history is closed, great opportunity to those who bought in at the rights issue and share holders who took up their entitlement. well done all holders.

A mate of mine (a typical buy and hold type) is still distressed about his NPX holdings .... he had a $100k worth in 2008 - fronted up with another $24K in the rights issue - had stuff all dividends in the meantime - and his shares are only worth $92k today

Tell him he has done well and you would get an earful

Tell him it could have been far worse if he hadn't averaged down and had faith in the comapny and you get another rant and rave

Still holds them because he reckons one day, maybe, he'll be in profit

[h2so4]

A mate of mine (a typical buy and hold type) is still distressed about his NPX holdings .... he had a $100k worth in 2008 - fronted up with another $24K in the rights issue - had stuff all dividends in the meantime - and his shares are only worth $92k today

Tell him he has done well and you would get an earful

Tell him it could have been far worse if he hadn't averaged down and had faith in the comapny and you get another rant and rave

Still holds them because he reckons one day, maybe, he'll be in profit

Tell him to buy more.:)

[OldRider]

I've held NPX for over 10 years, gradually adding more every year or two,
and taking all available in the rights issue
Annual IRR over this period has been 7.9%, considering the state of markets
recently ,not too bad. As well dividends have given return of 2 to 3% over last two years,
again not too bad.

Winner59 - presuming your mate has held has for a similar time period to me
his return should be positive, which is an achievement in times of GFC



Hopefully another year or two will improve things further.

[percy]

Good to see this company back to full strength.A good result.Like other posters I look forward to NPX's growth.Good divie,buggar about the imputation credits,but high yield will appeal to Aussie investors,who will drive the SP.I have divie reinvestment with NPX which has worked against me the last two payments,so would be nice if it worked in my favour this time.

[RazorX]

Good news for Nuplex. Share price is up. Glad I held on to this one even though there was a cross on the MA's as it dropped which would usually signal an out for me. (Thanks to Percy for his advice :))

[percy]

Good news for Nuplex. Share price is up. Glad I held on to this one even though there was a cross on the MA's as it dropped which would usually signal an out for me. (Thanks to Percy for his advice :))

pleased you hung on.I did too,but when the share price showed so much weakness ,I thought I had given you bad advice.Had me doubting my own judgement.!!!!

[percy]

Chaklie's article this morning was of interest to NPX holders.
"Trading profit was about 10% more than the market was expecting,but the underlying numbers were even better.About $7m of unusual costs were absorbed.When you take the unusual costs into account, the company smashed forecasts by over 15%.,all through second-half performance."
Great stuff.

[percy]

Percy, Is Chalkie trying to say that the "unusual costs" aren't real cash?

You will have to direct your question to him.I take it to mean they were a one off or a non reaccuring cost.To quote article "Sometimes,companies include as normal operating costs restructing charges and this was the case with NPX."
To see the whole article go to www.stuff.co.nz then click onto business or search,type in chalkie,then second article When things are bad,even average appears good is what you want.

[winner69]

NPX shareprice on fire .... should be asked for a please explain ... whoops we don't do that in NZ do we!

Must be getting ready to tell us some more good news .... maybe spending some money in India

[macduffy]

Probably just a bit of irrational exuberance thinking about all the resins, paints etc that will be needed in the Canterbury region in coming months.

[winner69]

You sound a bit surprised macduffy .... remember this dog went to 360 odd not that long ... still 22 off that high so if the world is a lot brighter place now then you would expect the shareprice to be heading to 400 by the end of October

[macduffy]

Well, yes, I am a little surprised but mainly by the timing of this firming.

I don't think that the world is all that much brighter now but would be very happy to see a SP of $4 by the end of October.

[percy]

I may be wrong but I think trading in NPX shares in Aussie is picking up which I think is a strong signal.As per my previous posts I feel the good divie which has franking credits for Aussies will see the SP rerated upwards as Aussies accept a lower div yield,and higher PE ratios.Also new MD being an Aussie will attract them as they will see it as an Australian company.How long before it transfersrs to Aussie?What ever it is good to be enjoying the ride.

[h2so4]

The world is getting brighter all the time. I just see good value here.

10 trades yesterday percy, but I've got my share.:)

[whirly]

Morningstar talking NPX down? Could be positive.

"Nuplex is highly leveraged to global automotive and industrial demand conditions which remains a bit fragile in our view." Moghe values the shares at $2.90

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6e286b03/daily-sharechat-nuplex.html

[macduffy]

Although automotive demand is mentioned, my take on Morningstar's comment, read in context of the full article, is that their caution relates to the rate of recovery of international economies generally.

I'm happy to hold NPX.

[percy]

Although automotive demand is mentioned, my take on Morningstar's comment, read in context of the full article, is that their caution relates to the rate of recovery of international economies generally.

I'm happy to hold NPX.
I am with you macduffy.I think they are right with their caution .As a shareholder I am pleased to have a well managed,well capitalised company which can easily take advantage of business opportunities anywhere in the world.As I and another poster have stated we feel they will expand into India.They will also need to go back into Brasil.What we will not see is them being foolish with shareholders money.A sound company,POISED for any upturn.!!!!

[whirly]

Morningstar talking NPX down? Could be positive.

"Nuplex is highly leveraged to global automotive and industrial demand conditions which remains a bit fragile in our view." Moghe values the shares at $2.90

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6e286b03/daily-sharechat-nuplex.html

I read it as Morningstar funds wanting to buy more so had the tagline on the end with the $2.90 target hence my "Could be positive" comment. I hold. The rest of the article is bullish.

[h2so4]

If we had a cherry consensus, I bet you wouldn't be buying at current prices.

[Casa del Energia]

""New Zealand-based chemicals supplier Nuplex Industries is considering shifting to Australia.

"Following detailed consideration, your directors are coming to the view that a change of the company's domicile to Australia, with listings remaining on both the New Zealand and Australian exchanges, would be in the best interests of all shareholders," Nuplex chairman Rob Aitken said in the company's 2010 annual report.""


I know formalising the move to oz was always on the cards; BUT the directors should keep in mind that (at least private) investors don't always invest in any particular company for 100% purely business reasons. If that were the case - in reality very few would invest in the NZ bourse.
In the wider view - this habit of NZ companies of getting to a certain size then moving to Sydney is not good for the overall business environment, nor the NZ citizens who lose the opportunity of aspiring to the top jobs whilst still living in (here comes the flag waving) the best country in the world. The general health of the local business environment is also damaged as we lose synergies and the upper echelon of business leaders that are needed in this country.
So, directors - remember who invested and stumped up with the extra cash when the schist hit the fan - - 'so long and thanks for all the fish' is not a nice 'thankyou'.

[macduffy]

NPX's head office is already in Oz and what they are talking about now is moving the primary listing to there but retaining listing in NZ.

They say that this will improve chances of partial imputation of dividends for NZ shareholders - not sure how that works but I assume NZ overheads are reduced with consequently better NZ profits and more NZ tax paid.

The NZ business is a fraction of the total, both in revenue and profits. I see these developments as inevitable and, hopefully, not disadvantageous to NZ shareholders.

I hold NPX.

[Casa del Energia]

NPX's head office is already in Oz and what they are talking about now is moving the primary listing to there but retaining listing in NZ.

They say that this will improve chances of partial imputation of dividends for NZ shareholders - not sure how that works but I assume NZ overheads are reduced with consequently better NZ profits and more NZ tax paid.

The NZ business is a fraction of the total, both in revenue and profits. I see these developments as inevitable and, hopefully, not disadvantageous to NZ shareholders.

I hold NPX.

Yes - I never quite got my head around the imputation thing with NPX. In general - taxation should never be a key driver for decisions and the reality is that, yes, most of the business is overseas (but that hasn't stopped Nestle staying domiciled in Switzerland) so the formality of 'moving' is indeed inevitable. I just wanted to wave the flag a little and remind ourselves that there is more to a nation than a bunch of people living in the same patch of land.

Holding: NPX, PRC, NZO, FBU, GPG, DGL, SAN -- go kiwis!!

Also ANZ, BHP, ARM, PNA (must be practical too).

[winner69]

Never did Nufarm any harm becoming domiciled in OZ

[whatsup]

Never did Nufarm any harm becoming domiciled in OZ


Except for its current share price.

[winner69]

Except for its (NUF) current share price.

Though you would have to say that shape of the NUF and the NPX long term charts look very similar

On the ASX over 10 years -

NUF gone from $3 to $17 and back to $3,52

NPX gone from $5 to $10 and back to $2,67

Based on the size of the actual movements from the bottom to the top and back again ... and seeing that NUF is actually ahead of where it was 10 years whereas NPX is quite a long way behind one would have to say NUF has outperformed NPX since moving to Australia

So is there hope for NPX yet .... move to Australia might be the key

[whatsup]

Though you would have to say that shape of the NUF and the NPX long term charts look very similar

On the ASX over 10 years -

NUF gone from $3 to $17 and back to $3,52

NPX gone from $5 to $10 and back to $2,67

Based on the size of the actual movements from the bottom to the top and back again ... and seeing that NUF is actually ahead of where it was 10 years whereas NPX is quite a long way behind one would have to say NUF has outperformed NPX since moving to Australia

So is there hope for NPX yet .... move to Australia might be the key

Except the writing may be on the wall for NUF, IMHO something to do with the way the company has been run over the last few years where by NPX bit the bullet saised share capital at a huge discount got its house in order and rebuilt its business, NUF on the other hand hasnt so far.
We all watch with interest before strumpting up with more cash this time!!

[macduffy]

New NPX CEO, Emery Severin, is interviewed by The Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/nuplex-looks-to-grow-in-asia/story-e6frg8zx-1225919835527