NPX Chart

[winner69]

Another stunning result from NPX ....and with the usual expectations of next year being better all honky dory.

Good old fashioned chemical company ....steady as she goes and churn out reasonably steady profits is their lot. Take the divie but never expect any growth over and above GDP/inflation

[winner69]

Another company that uses ebitda as a proxy for profit .....ebitda flat but npat down 31% ...but who cares because those oter things don't matter anyway

And putting the results presentation in a sideways orientation pissed me off .....even when I turned the iPad around it was stil sideways ha ha. Spose it's fake enough that they make me play around with the settings to look the orientation ...twice as need to go back to normal

[percy]

Another company that uses ebitda as a proxy for profit .....ebitda flat but npat down 31% ...but who cares because those oter things don't matter anyway

And putting the results presentation in a sideways orientation pissed me off .....even when I turned the iPad around it was stil sideways ha ha. Spose it's fake enough that they make me play around with the settings to look the orientation ...twice as need to go back to normal

Don't know why you bother.!! lol.

[winner69]

Percy --- just have this morbid fascination with companies like Nuplex and PGW and a few others .... you know the good old companies that have been around for zonks .... the ones who always promise so much .... but forget that in reality they are what they are ...good old companies who will continue to battle on a make a few bob but will never be exciting ..... because those sort of companies don't have the capacity to change and aren't in those markets anyway

If they return their cost of capital that's a good year .... otherwise they continue to be .... well just that

[percy]

Percy --- just have this morbid fascination with companies like Nuplex and PGW and a few others .... you know the good old companies that have been around for zonks .... the ones who always promise so much .... but forget that in reality they are what they are ...good old companies who will continue to battle on a make a few bob but will never be exciting ..... because those sort of companies don't have the capacity to change and aren't in those markets anyway

If they return their cost of capital that's a good year .... otherwise they continue to be .... well just that

Well put.!!!

[winner69]

NPX telling us all about the next 3 to 5 years today

When I see slides like the one below I know things have been well thought out and everything is honky dory and shareholders will rejoice in new found wealth (even though they say superior returns is just covering the cost of capital)

Anyway I'm sure that the 'deep diving' they are doing will bring results .... better than being well positioned Percy .... deep diving at least suggests action

[winner69]

to be honest I have no idea what the slide is saying

in the context of the whole preso have a read
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/181977.pdf

Whatever the analysts will love it .... be sucked into adding a few % points to their forecasts and increasing target prices ..... and telling punters this is a now a BUY BUY

Some instos look like they have already seen this preso (just surmising based on price activity) but look at a solid increase in NPX share price over the next week or so

[percy]

NPX telling us all about the next 3 to 5 years today

When I see slides like the one below I know things have been well thought out and everything is honky dory and shareholders will rejoice in new found wealth (even though they say superior returns is just covering the cost of capital)

Anyway I'm sure that the 'deep diving' they are doing will bring results .... better than being well positioned Percy .... deep diving at least suggests action

You are doing well Winner69.
I am sorry I just can't bring myself to read it.!!
Think Snoopy has drained all my strength on HNZ thread.!! lol.

[percy]

Luckily I can't get past page 2.
46 pages?

[winner69]

Luckily I can't get past page 2.
46 pages?

This summarises the 46 pages (from my mate Tom Fishburne - another good guy)

[winner69]

Percy - you remember how many vice presidents NPX has?

Never mind the jest - lets get serious - the market loves the presentation - share price up 3% already and more to come

I 'believe' it

[Xerof]

I reckon the slide has been stolen from TNZ. Its the design for their next boat. Note all the extra appendages under the hull......

[percy]

Percy - you remember how many vice presidents NPX has?

Never mind the jest - lets get serious - the market loves the presentation - share price up 3% already and more to come

I 'believe' it

Have now read the very good presentation
They certainly are a global business.
Plenty of areas for growth,Asia,Indonesia,Brazil ,Russia and India.
Not tempted to buy back in though.
No mention of how many extra vice presidents they will need or have.! lol
10% EPS growth. Now that will be interesting to watch to see if they achieve it.

[macduffy]

Forecasts of compound sales growth of 4 - 7%pa out to 2018. Hockey stick forecasting?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9185921/Nuplex-seeks-boost-from-Asian-expansion?cid=edm:businessday:dailybrief

[winner69]

Forecasts of compound sales growth of 4 - 7%pa out to 2018. Hockey stick forecasting?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9185921/Nuplex-seeks-boost-from-Asian-expansion?cid=edm:businessday:dailybrief

That's what 'deep diving' does for you macduffy

[winner69]

That's what 'deep diving' does for you macduffy

mind this multi-dimensional approach also says we "Do not play in upstream or downstream"

Bloody well hope that the diving hole they have found is deep as or else they in trouble

From a corporate speak POV a tremendous presentation .... the VP Planning guy deserves a medal for this

[percy]

VP Planning guy???
Think it would be the VPs Planning TEAM! or TEAMS lol.

[macduffy]

VP Planning guy???
Think it would be the VPs Planning TEAM! or TEAMS lol.

As long as it's not the creative arts team!

[winner69]

VP Planning guy???
Think it would be the VPs Planning TEAM! or TEAMS lol.

A person called Hasan Shafi, VP Planning got a credit and looks like he presented with the CEO and CFO

Probably has a team of other Strategic Planners and Analysts under him .... else no need to be a Vice President eh

[winner69]

As long as it's not the creative arts team!

Xerof thinks it was the boat building team

We should not jest .... this is a serious

Don't set their sights too high .... success seems to be TSR in P50 .... presumes that means in the top 50% .... as most who use this an objective say P25 or better I assume NPX happy if they are 50% ... average market returns over time

[percy]

A person called Hasan Shafi, VP Planning got a credit and looks like he presented with the CEO and CFO

Probably has a team of other Strategic Planners and Analysts under him .... else no need to be a Vice President eh

His title is;
Vice President Corporate Development and Planning.
As you pointed out has probably a team [or teams] of other strategic Planners under him.
Surely another VP would be in charge of the Analysts [or analysts teams]
Bit of a lime light hogger not mentioning the other VPs. [or their teams,]

[janner]

His title is;
Vice President Corporate Development and Planning.
As you pointed out has probably a team [or teams] of other strategic Planners under him.
Surely another VP would be in charge of the Analysts [or analysts teams]
Bit of a lime light hogger not mentioning the other VPs. [or their teams,]

Easy to scoff percy..

Will admit . This one is beginning to register on my radar.. AGAIN !!..

But only just..

Disc. Not holding.

[percy]

Easy to scoff percy..

Will admit . This one is beginning to register on my radar.. AGAIN !!..

But only just..

Disc. Not holding.

Yes, I know you have done well with them!
Yes, I know you have a very good radar.

Disc.Happy to scoff from a distance.

[janner]

Yes, I know you have done well with them!
Yes, I know you have a very good radar.

Disc.Happy to scoff from a distance.

They did that last time perc..

Disc. Not holding.

[winner69]

They did that last time perc..

Disc. Not holding.

Janner - last time we did really well was an event driven thing, when punters jumped ship when NPX committed hari Kari and didn't manage the bankers at all. (They were still profitable). That was the opportunity and you and others grasped it.

Back on your radar eh .....because of this latest story? Or something else?

As I see it they are not making any more money than they were before the disaster of 5 years ago. Revenues are much the same and margins are a bit thinner. The preso was all about sales growth ....assuming that profit will follow I expect.

I was surprised that the strategy was only yo achieve T50 TSR - shouldn't shareholders expect more than a little better than average returns relative to the market. Maybe exec incentives are based on that as well.

The other thing is that it is implied that covering cost of capital is a good result. For an old fashioned reliable chemical company this probably is good. However good old fashioned valuation methods say that if this happens (ie no real economic value added) than the market cap generally reverts to the book value. Currently market cap slightly above book value ..... Any decent upside share wise on this? No but the hype probably take the current share price higher from its existing 16 pe. Good divie yield at the mo if that is th game.

My morbid fascination with NPX continues. Understand the company and made heaps a coupe of times over the last 10 years but don't feel now is one of those times. Probably hoping for another disaster and to see punters jumping ship again.

[percy]

w69, wait for the next recession ... it is then that these boring old chemical companies shine brightly.

Being at the beginning of the supply chain they were first to be hit last recession,as their customers cut stock,and delayed orders.
Different next time?

[winner69]

We shouldn't jest or make mock of that NPX preso ...did love the new boat design though.

They are serious global players now. Organic growth in mature markets plus another 1/2 billion in sales out of Asia along with improved margins, high margins in the newer markets, all make for fantastic future.

Lets say $2.5 billion sales ....higher margins should lead to a higher price:sales valuation of say 0.6 ....which gives a valuation of $7.50

Anybody taking up the offer/promise to double your money in the next couple of years ...don't complain if you miss out .....you read I here first

[janner]

Back on your radar eh .....because of this latest story? Or something else?

Must admit winner69, it is in the " some thing else " arena..

Do the TA and the FA thing..

Some times one has to go with the good old fashioned " Gut Feeling "..

It feels right :-)) ..

winner69.. Noted your post 1195.. May we be joyous travellers on the same road :-))

Disc.. Not holding ... YET.. Do not be to hasty.. DYOR .

[percy]

We shouldn't jest or make mock of that NPX preso ...did love the new boat design though.

They are serious global players now. Organic growth in mature markets plus another 1/2 billion in sales out of Asia along with improved margins, high margins in the newer markets, all make for fantastic future.

Lets say $2.5 billion sales ....higher margins should lead to a higher price:sales valuation of say 0.6 ....which gives a valuation of $7.50

Anybody taking up the offer/promise to double your money in the next couple of years ...don't complain if you miss out .....you read I here first

Absolutely pie in the sky.!!!!!
Even very enthusiastic Craig's research only get to $1.85 b of sales in 2016.
You looking at 2025?

[winner69]

Jeez Percy, your mates at Craig's are unusually bearish

Sales were $1.67 billion in 2013. Craig's say $1.85 billion in 2016 - that's only 3.6% pa over the next 3 years.

They obviously didn't go to that strategy update session ....if they did they must have thought it a load of the proverbial eh to come up 3.6% pa growth



Current price far too high if that is all they expect. But then Craig's prob gave it a target price of 390?

They being disrespect able to that VP Planning and his team

[percy]

J
They being disrespect able to that VP Planning and his team

They are not alone.!! lol
Craig's 12 month target price is $3.79.

[percy]

J
They being disrespect able to that VP Planning and his team

They are not alone.!! lol
Craig's 12 month target price is $3.79.

[winner69]

ASM this week ......OMG in Wellington ......must want a small turnout

Anyway they usually tell us things are all honky dory and the year will be good ....so the shareprice will get closer to 4 bucks in next week or 2

[winner69]

John Morrison must have said welly a good place for annual meetings

[silverblizzard888]

Anyone read this:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11150958

What are your thoughts? Or is this nothing new?

[winner69]

What a disappointment .... NPX not talking up prospects ...what's happened to them

In is silly world we live in steady as she goes talk will boost the NPX shareprice .....just like not so good news in the US boosts the S&P500 every time

[winner69]

What a disappointment .... NPX not talking up prospects ...what's happened to them

In is silly world we live in steady as she goes talk will boost the NPX shareprice .....just like not so good news in the US boosts the S&P500 every time

[macduffy]

NPX is forecasting modest growth for 2014, which in today's environment is probably about the best that can be expected from solid non-tech industrials. I'll be happy if they achieve anywhere near the top end of the forecast profit range.

:cool:

[winner69]

Milford buying up to 5% a good sign

[silu]

I have been looking briefly into NPX today after a few beers (sorry the cricket) and it seems that a lower NZ dollar & the ChCh rebuild could make this into a safe investment at this stage. What is the general consensus about the immediate future for NPX?

[percy]

Keep increasing your consumption of beer until you drown any such silly thoughts!

[winner69]

I have been looking briefly into NPX today after a few beers (sorry the cricket) and it seems that a lower NZ dollar & the ChCh rebuild could make this into a safe investment at this stage. What is the general consensus about the immediate future for NPX?

Nuplex in great company and touted by FB to be a real growth company this year. From this mornings paper

Summerset is also on Forsyth Barr's list of 10 companies which it expects to have earnings per share growth in excess of 20 per cent.

Its othertop performers include: Bathurst Resources, Cavalier Corporation, Fletcher Building, Hellaby, Heartland New Zealand, Nuplex, NZ Oil & Gas, Oceana Gold and PGG Wrightson.

[winner69]

Silu

from their F13 profit announcement - Nuplex’s earnings before interest tax and depreciation, (EBITDA) of $126.4 million was down 3.5% when compared with the prior full year EBITDA result of $131.0 million. Had the New Zealand dollar remained unchanged over the period, EBITDA would have been $130.7 million, down 0.3%. (My note - all before writeoffs and restructuring costs. See the NZD hurt them last year and it has strengthened further since)

Then in November they said this - Nuplex expects earnings, before interest tax, depreciation and amortisation for the 2014 Financial Year to be between $130 and $145 million.

So there you have it - $131m in 2012 down to $126m in 2013 and if things go to plan somewhere between $13m and $145m this year. Fhe top of the range is only 14% up so maybe eps might get to 20% up as Forbar forecast

My morbid fascination with NPX continues and no doubt they will disappoint the growth pundits again .... dividend will still be OK

Success depends on how hard the many Presidents and Vice Presidents work .... there are heaps and heaps of them eh Percy. I have lost count

Could be their year Silu .... so go for it if you are keen

[skydog]

If FB had entered the ST 2014 comp they would be sitting at 146 place. I would rather look at the top 5 leaders picks for this year. It doesn't give me great confidence to see NZO on their list as well. I got out of NPX a year ago and haven't looked back since.

[winner69]

Shareprice not going up prior to announcement not a good sign

Historically fair amount of activity if its good news ......just inspired guesses by some eh, yeah right

[silu]

Thanks for all the replies guys. Will check back when the cricket celebration is over in my head.

[winner69]

My morbid fascination with NPX continues - please call for the man in the white coat and take me away

From the files

From Jan 11 to Dec 13 shareholders managed a 3.4% pa return from NPX

This was essentially dividends as the shareprice is down 13 cents in that period. (plus any tax credits if applicable)

Revenues have grown by 4.5% pa which would have helped the share price but margins have shrunk quite significantly resulting in drop in EPS

Lucky for NPX shareholders the market has been kind to NPX and 'rerated' it by increasing its PE ratio

Looking forward revenues might grow slowly in line with the 'good old fashioned chemical company' rates but will margins improve? If guidance anything to go buy not by much (half year announcement might show something)

Will there be further PE expansion? Doubt it as the current PE is the highest is above average and there is the likelihood of over market PE contraction.

So not looking to flash for NPX as an on going investment

Chart shows the impact on all these things from Jan 2011 when the share price was $3.53. So a capital loss of 13 cents and dividends of 63 cents in that time

[BlackPeter]

My morbid fascination with NPX continues - please call for the man in the white coat and take me away

From the files

From Jan 11 to Dec 13 shareholders managed a 3.4% pa return from NPX

This was essentially dividends as the shareprice is down 13 cents in that period. (plus any tax credits if applicable)

Revenues have grown by 4.5% pa which would have helped the share price but margins have shrunk quite significantly resulting in drop in EPS

Lucky for NPX shareholders the market has been kind to NPX and 'rerated' it by increasing its PE ratio

Looking forward revenues might grow slowly in line with the 'good old fashioned chemical company' rates but will margins improve? If guidance anything to go buy not by much (half year announcement might show something)

Will there be further PE expansion? Doubt it as the current PE is the highest is above average and there is the likelihood of over market PE contraction.

So not looking to flash for NPX as an on going investment

Chart shows the impact on all these things from Jan 2011 when the share price was $3.53. So a capital loss of 13 cents and dividends of 63 cents in that time

as always in life its all about timing ... I purchased a couple of NPX share parcels during 2011 and 2012 (while the SP was down) and am still a happy holder - average SP appreciation to date: 17.8% plus dividends.

Reuters says hold, ft.com predicts still a slight appreciation from here - so I probably will still stay in without asking for the men in white!

[winner69]

NPX one of the stars on the gainers list today

The tea lady must have a quick look at the presentation and good news tomorrow

[winner69]

So Mr Severin admits “It’s disappointing that earnings have remained flat over the past three years, particularly since we have invested significantly in growth via acquisitions, specifically Nuplex Germany and our organic growth program in Asia as well as realising sizeable cost savings through our NuLEAP initiatives"

Methinks Mr Severin needs to realise he is not leading some sexy growth company but is in charge of just an old fashioned chemical company facing change through out the world.

At least he recognises that change in ANZ by saying “The continued structural decline of the ANZ markets and together with the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against most of our trading currencies over the past four years, has been the overwhelming cause of Nuplex’s flat earnings."

Besides all the rhetoric and in depth analysis a pretty solid result for an old fashioned chemical company that churns out respectable dividends year after year

But please Mr Severin don't keep pushing this growth story. Probably feels compelled to push the corporate story the market wants to hear

Besides that he is a really good guy that Mr Severin

[winner69]

Another de facto earnings downgrade ......FY EBITDA will be at lower half of the range

Surprised ... I am not

[winner69]

Percy .....one of those many Presidents and Vice Presidents bite the dust along with 30 other employees

Nuplex’s Regional President of Australia and New Zealand, Sam Bastounas, will be leaving Nuplex

He is a really nice guy that Sam and sad to see him given the boot (sounds like it anway) after 24 yeas loyal service

But that's what happens when markets change.

[Lizard]

NPX one of the stars on the gainers list today

The tea lady must have a quick look at the presentation and good news tomorrow

Think the tea lady better get down to spec-savers... :p

[percy]

I am again enjoying this thread.Thanks Winner69 and Lizard.!!
ps.Nice people at Spec-savers.I broke my good $2 glasses last time I was in Auckland and the nice lady at Spec-savers Albany directed to the "cheap shop" where I purchased two upmarket pair of glasses for $3 a pair.!!
Sorry to see Sam go after 24 years.

[janner]

So Mr Severin admits “It’s disappointing that earnings have remained flat over the past three years, particularly since we have invested significantly in growth via acquisitions, specifically Nuplex Germany and our organic growth program in Asia as well as realising sizeable cost savings through our NuLEAP initiatives"

Methinks Mr Severin needs to realise he is not leading some sexy growth company but is in charge of just an old fashioned chemical company facing change through out the world.

At least he recognises that change in ANZ by saying “The continued structural decline of the ANZ markets and together with the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar against most of our trading currencies over the past four years, has been the overwhelming cause of Nuplex’s flat earnings."

Besides all the rhetoric and in depth analysis a pretty solid result for an old fashioned chemical company that churns out respectable dividends year after year

But please Mr Severin don't keep pushing this growth story. Probably feels compelled to push the corporate story the market wants to hear

Besides that he is a really good guy that Mr Severin

Agree Rode the rise.. Parted company.. A good dividend Company.. Unable to see much growth in the near future..

[winner69]

Edwin a bit miffed Jenny dared called it a profit downgrade on the radio this morning

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/2586508
About 9.30 in

It's not a downgrade -just lower end of guidance

Roll on the next guidance

[silu]

btw thanks winner69 for your posts in here. This is IMO how you warn potential investors of its foils.

[winner69]

btw thanks winner69 for your posts in here. This is IMO how you warn potential investors of its foils.

Wouldn't want to put anybody off buying / holding NPX if all they want USA reasonably consistent dividend

That's what good old chemicals are good at

And we shouldn't overlook that these companies are the back bone if the real world - they make real stuff that's needed by the world -the stuff that keeps the economy going

[In4a$]

A good solid company IMO, buy in the dips, take the Dividends and when NZ$ takes the next plunge, NPX will soar again. Just not sure when NZ$ will fall next !.
Disc: Long time Holder / Seller of NPX

[macduffy]

A good solid company IMO, buy in the dips, take the Dividends and when NZ$ takes the next plunge, NPX will soar again. Just not sure when NZ$ will fall next !.
Disc: Long time Holder / Seller of NPX

Let's hope that they have their foreign currency borrowings in order this time - when the NZD takes the next plunge!

:ohmy:

[winner69]

Let's hope that they have their foreign currency borrowings in order this time - when the NZD takes the next plunge!

:ohmy:

Nearly killed them .....and they didn't handle the situation at all did they macduffy. Didn't they even deny there wasa problem

New group of presidents and Vice Presidents at the helm so this time will be different, that's assuming NZD is going to plunge

[In4a$]

Let's hope that they have their foreign currency borrowings in order this time - when the NZD takes the next plunge!

:ohmy:

yes I remember that now. Luckily didnt hold any at the time. Fingers crossed dosnt happen again

[BlackPeter]

A brokers view .... sitting on the fence?

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9930643/A-brokers-view-Nuplex

Personally I would see currently the pros outnumbering the cons (but maybe just because I am an optimist ;)).

If we assume that the world will continue to recover for some time to go before the next inevitable crash - and if we assume that the oil price will be stable or dropping for some time (thanks to cracking) - she should be fine.

Discl: holding - i.e wearing pink glasses :cool: ... DYOR

[winner69]

This is a fantastic article in Stuff. A Chalkie column and not Tim Hunter

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9990671/CEOs-and-mega-salaries-The-pros-and-cons

But loved this bit ( and no I didn't write the article)

Nuplex, which has shown the largest increase in CEO compensation over the past 14 years in Chalkie's table, has been a serial acquirer but its share price is lower today than a decade ago.

Ha ha love it .....all those eps accretive acquisitions and capital raiisings and all the new presidents and Vice Presidents .......and shar price lower than 10 years ago

Good old Hirst must be cringing

[percy]

No surprises there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[winner69]

W69, Do ya reckon NPX is one of the NZX companies that Rob is referring to?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11249411

Methinks so. [evil grin]

Evil grin indeed

NPX probably past redemption anyway

But then Coats is just a commodities business they sorted out

[percy]

I bet all The Presidents and Vice-Presidents have HUGE redundancy clauses in their employment contracts.

[BlackPeter]

funny trading today - no news, but share lost over the day 26 cts in trading, hardly any bidders left. One (somewhat) larger trade after 5pm 10 cts up from the bottom at WA - weighted average; Not really time for divvies or similar - any suggestions what's going on?

[winner69]

NPX gone nowhere for best part of a year now, but it is aborning old chemical company isn't it so fireworks not expected

Good sign is that NPX haven't come out with their May/early June 'trading update' - means things must be tracking along just ok, like hanging n there but nothing spectacular.

Then again they could come out and make a surprise announcement in next week or two. Maybe trading better in Europe but not likely. Anyway looks like a bad announcement not on the horizon but that's just guesswork.

From a TA perspective if the price drops a little more a DEATH CROSS is likely. Really bad that is.

A few months Togo to the full year result.

[winner69]

One thing about NPX is that it is a good stock to keep an eye on because it is typical of the type of stock that tends to drift down in price before the market crash is really upon us, a bit like the canary in the coal mine.

[winner69]

But tad slow. discl: gone!

Gone where belg?

50MA is 342
200MA is 340

Maybe a cross over any day now

[blackcap]

NPX gone nowhere for best part of a year now, but it is aborning old chemical company isn't it so fireworks not expected

Good sign is that NPX haven't come out with their May/early June 'trading update' - means things must be tracking along just ok, like hanging n there but nothing spectacular.
.

Just a couple of days too soon Winner.... :( This company never ceases to surprise. I am surprised it keeps bouncing above the $3 mark.
Disc, also a long suffering holder with a "morbid" fascination for this stock.

[winner69]

Like i knew it was to happen eh

Oh no, not again

Mr Severin disappointed again .....only disappointed because he has to tell the market that things are going like they should in old fashioned chemical company's

So this years profit in line with last year which was in line with the year before ....and no doubt about the same as will be achieved next year

Mr Severin and all the Vice Presidents wil think otherwise.

But they need to get over this growth thing they are fixated on and keep raving on about

The morbid fascination continues

Birman - divie safe eh

[percy]

Might be good for a dead cat bounce? ... But probably not in this docile market.

Think this dead cat is too full of resin to bounce!

[Xerof]

Looks more like a dead parrot - norwegian blue I think

[Hoop]

Looks more like a dead parrot - norwegian blue I think

Hmmm..intraday bounce at 3.10, back up to 3.25 ...still got potential to be a dead cat splat before the close..

[winner69]

Only down 4c at the mo .....might ed up for the day

Jeez the briefing they gave was boring as ......but highly paid people are meant to be boring when blaming everything they can't control for failing to meet expectations .....but who set the expectations?

[RGR367]

Just $330k gone thru ... No panic ... Onwards to a new lower value methinks.

Them's buying today are going to regret it IMNSHO

I'm one of those who bought at the bottom very early today as my order has been waiting there since 2 weeks. Cents gain now on what was bought still amount to something :)


Discl: built up several K's of it since the beginning

[percy]

I'm one of those who bought at the bottom very early today as my order has been waiting there since 2 weeks. Cents gain now on what was bought still amount to something :)


Discl: built up several K's of it since the beginning

I wish you well.!! Sorry I will not be joining you.!!!

[winner69]

Thinking about th briefing they gave it epseems certain that next years profit will be in line with years latest guidance.....at best

Some of those analysts were pretty nice seeing they must be pissed off with a downgrade a few weeks before the end of the year. Loved me old mate Severin saying we we uwere watching the numbers pretty closely through April (sounds like they were not too good) but May wasn't up to expectation so hence the downgrade

Effectively they were saying that H2 EBITDA was going to be 15% to 25% down on expectations (low / high cases). That's some downgrade .....and the causes will flow through to the 2015 ....hence why next year same as this AT BEST ...if things go right

So steady as she goes .....do the same things day by day ....churn out the stuff .....have some good things go your way and accept that. Bad things are normal ....that's life for you

Just waiting for the next chapter an glossy slides from the Nuplex team telling me thy are a growth company ...maybe in September

[winner69]

In stuff

"For long suffering shareholders, who have been waiting for the transformational strategy to turn the business around by cutting costs and so on, it is another disappointment that that process is still ongoing," said James Smalley, director at Hamilton Hindin Greene. "

One could say investors didn't really set the bar too high for Nuplex, although it has always disappointing to have a downgrade. The market wasn't expecting great things from the company anyway."

[winner69]

In stuff

"For long suffering shareholders, who have been waiting for the transformational strategy to turn the business around by cutting costs and so on, it is another disappointment that that process is still ongoing," said James Smalley, director at Hamilton Hindin Greene. "

One could say investors didn't really set the bar too high for Nuplex, although it has always disappointing to have a downgrade. The market wasn't expecting great things from the company anyway."

[percy]

A good friend of mine rang me this afternoon to tell me he had finally sold his NPX.Latest update was the final straw.
He used the funds to buy IAG in Aussie.Makes good sense to me.

[winner69]

year after year come AGM the story is 'This year year is going to be a good year'. Then after the Christmas break invariably the 'not as good as we thought but still pretty good' story and the in May or June the 'BUGGER we got it wrong again' story

Sadly it is never their fault, just the world ganged up on them. Bugger

Maybe this year will be different but the worry was in the briefing yesterday they didn't seem to want to think about the bad things happening now actually keeping on into the new year. No doubt the magic want will come out and the problems will go away

ANyway just out of morbid fascination here's a graphic showing their guidance range as the past 2 years have progressed. If I was Mr Severin I'd give up on providing guidance, it only leads to tears

[winner69]

milford still keen on NPX

The last million shares have average cost of 143.

Probably averaging down an taking advantage of current weakness

Jeez I'd love paying around with other people's hard earned cash .....and making my broker mates richer in the process

[SCOTTY]

milford still keen on NPX

The last million shares have average cost of 143.

Probably averaging down an taking advantage of current weakness

Jeez I'd love paying around with other people's hard earned cash .....and making my broker mates richer in the process





Hi Winner

Do you think Milford will still be happy buyers after latest down-grade?

[winner69]

Hi Winner

Do you think Milford will still be happy buyers after latest down-grade?

Prob a bit peeved

The 10 million they have just part of having to put all their cash somewhere eh

[RGR367]

Prob a bit peeved

The 10 million they have just part of having to put all their cash somewhere eh

Not having been guided on how to trade/invest on this stock, I have to rely on my historical dealings with it. And the way it's going, looks like repeating 2011 all over again on its price. So another couple weeks more, it should be going around 2.60 - 2.74 up to mid next year when it finally recovers to its present price now. My muddy crystal ball cannot be wrong again :)

Discl owning quite heaps of NPX

[winner69]

I see guru analysts have reduced their profit forecasts. Well they had too didn't they.

All they appear to have done is reduce 2014 numbers to get a new base and then applied the previous growth assumptions as they had previously. That's how analyst work, nothing goes backwards


So solid double digit earnings growth from here. Shareprice at least 4 bucks next year on that basis. Seems a good buy then

[winner69]

Not having been guided on how to trade/invest on this stock, I have to rely on my historical dealings with it. And the way it's going, looks like repeating 2011 all over again on its price. So another couple weeks more, it should be going around 2.60 - 2.74 up to mid next year when it finally recovers to its present price now. My muddy crystal ball cannot be wrong again :)

Discl owning quite heaps of NPX


Well, NPX tried it's hardest to stay above 300. A real little battler is NPX isn't it but it finally succumbed and 290 odd it is

RGR - no doubt you will see your 260-274 but I have my doubts whether you will see 300 in the next year or two

Morbid fascination with NPX continues. A few weeks to go to the full year announcement ......wonder if they can conjure up some more bad news

[BIRMANBOY]

Starting to look at this from a dividend POV...so you know it must be bad:cool:

[winner69]

Starting to look at this from a dividend POV...so you know it must be bad:cool:

Not bad Birman, just they don't live up their own rhetoric

NPX ideal company for you. A good old fashioned chemical company that gets on does what old fashioned chemicals do, with steady decent cash flows and pretty reliable dividends. Just what you want isn't it.

Maybe 21 cents divie again this year - that's 7% for you. Now essentially an Ozzie company with little NZ earnings so imputation credits pretty meagre if at all

Sounds like what you after - or you waiting for buy at 250. Sneaky cat trick eh, wait and pounce to get the goodies.

My morbid fascination with NPX goes back years. Did very well in the early 2000s when they were unloved and cheap. But since th Akzo deal years ago that was going to be eps accretive I still waiting for that day. Just wished thy would stop his GROWTH story / tirade - they just an old fashioned chemical company paying reasonable dividends.

Go for it birman

[winner69]

"Good old fashioned chemical companies" usually turn up a hot new product ever few years and cream in license fees and associated IP revenues.

What's NPX done? Do they spend enough on R&D?

Heaps Belg, heaps

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah, ANOTHER one not living up to its PR dept's claims (and the W69 high expectation standards!).....and the list grows. Yes, well no imputation credits is not so good but if it drops to near 2.50 as you say, its worthy of the second look. Just seems like there are a lot of similar opportunities out there at moment. I'm wondering if more to come so the cash is piling up and the buy prices are being shifted downwards. As you say waiting and watching for the best spot.
Not bad Birman, just they don't live up their own rhetoric

NPX ideal company for you. A good old fashioned chemical company that gets on does what old fashioned chemicals do, with steady decent cash flows and pretty reliable dividends. Just what you want isn't it.

Maybe 21 cents divie again this year - that's 7% for you. Now essentially an Ozzie company with little NZ earnings so imputation credits pretty meagre if at all

Sounds like what you after - or you waiting for buy at 250. Sneaky cat trick eh, wait and pounce to get the goodies.

My morbid fascination with NPX goes back years. Did very well in the early 2000s when they were unloved and cheap. But since th Akzo deal years ago that was going to be eps accretive I still waiting for that day. Just wished thy would stop his GROWTH story / tirade - they just an old fashioned chemical company paying reasonable dividends.

Go for it birman

[winner69]

Hah, ANOTHER one not living up to its PR dept's claims (and the W69 high expectation standards!).....and the list grows. Yes, well no imputation credits is not so good but if it drops to near 2.50 as you say, its worthy of the second look. Just seems like there are a lot of similar opportunities out there at moment. I'm wondering if more to come so the cash is piling up and the buy prices are being shifted downwards. As you say waiting and watching for the best spot.

My expectations for NPX are always met, cause they not high to start with.

Akzo acquisition EPS accretive one day

[winner69]

Really looking forward to the latest chapter in Nuplex story book later this week.

EBITDA will be at top end of guidance ....that's good .....and the words around FY15 will be a lot brighter methinks .....that's good as well.

[BlackPeter]

Really looking forward to the latest chapter in Nuplex story book later this week.

EBITDA will be at top end of guidance ....that's good .....and the words around FY15 will be a lot brighter methinks .....that's good as well.

Based on past history they should go up anyway in the second half of the year - they always do. Must be the impact of the great stories (until reality than sets in after Christmas);).

One interesting factor in the game is however how investors see their Russian adventure (and how it ultimately turns out). From memory they intended to invest this year something like 7M Euro into a new Russian subsidiary - and given the current political situation this could end up either good or bad.

Best option is that Russia stays liquid, behaves not too irrational and New Zealand stays sort of neutral - in this case their investment should pay off handsomely.

The alternative would be Russia turning dark and NZ joining the US / European camp - in this case they might need to write off their Russian investment. Not a killer, but a not insignificant setback.

Views?

[winner69]

Akzo acquisition years ago was to be eps accretive ....still waiting. Credibility is their problem.

Love the way Severin talks ...'it just happens I was in Russia last week and things were looking good'. This was one of several 'just happens' events at the last investor update.

[winner69]

Big day for NPX tomorrow

Shareprice a bit weak lately so maybe not as good as expected but better to go down before the announcement so everybody can heave a huge sigh of relief that its not as bad as thought (what a load of crap that was because they told us the answer not long ago) so everybody can start buying up big again with confidenceand the shareprice will head back to the 350 mark over the next few weeks

Really look forward to NPX announcements. Their Powerpoint presentations are first rate and really professional as Roger would put. Must take Mr Severin and his team (Vice Presidents) weeks to put it together .... the sad thing is that they probably believe every word of it.

[percy]

Big day for NPX tomorrow

Shareprice a bit weak lately so maybe not as good as expected but better to go down before the announcement so everybody can heave a huge sigh of relief that its not as bad as thought (what a load of crap that was because they told us the answer not long ago) so everybody can start buying up big again with confidenceand the shareprice will head back to the 350 mark over the next few weeks

Really look forward to NPX announcements. Their Powerpoint presentations are first rate and really professional as Roger would put. Must take Mr Severin and his team (Vice Presidents) weeks to put it together .... the sad thing is that they probably every word of it.

Yet all we can muster is a good laugh!!! lol.

[winner69]

About what they said

Birmanmboy - Divie stayed the same as last year. Is 21 cents with next year higher on 289 meet you expectations

Presentation 45 pages - very professional and well done guys - but please do more than just believe the words and actually make things happen this year.

[percy]

About what they said

Birmanmboy - Divie stayed the same as last year. Is 21 cents with next year higher on 289 meet you expectations

Presentation 45 pages - very professional and well done guys - but please do more than just believe the words and actually make things happen this year.

Well you did better than me Winner69.
Went to read it and it was upside down and sideways!!!!!
I rather lost interest quickly.
Professional? No.!!

[BlackPeter]

Well you did better than me Winner69.
Went to read it and it was upside down and sideways!!!!!
I rather lost interest quickly.
Professional? No.!!
Hi Percy,
They probably scanned it upside down (impact of Southern hemisphere, or just too many spirits to celebrate or commiserate the result?). However, easy to fix: While you are in Acrobat - just right click (on your mouse) and than pick "rotate". This makes the reading so much easier ...

[percy]

Hi Percy,
They probably scanned it upside down (impact of Southern hemisphere, or just too many spirits to celebrate or commiserate the result?). However, easy to fix: While you are in Acrobat - just right click (on your mouse) and than pick "rotate". This makes the reading so much easier ...

Thanks for the tips Black Peter.
Thought Emery must have sent it when he was in Russia.
See whether I get the strength to cope with reading it later?!

[winner69]

Shareprice on fire - back to 350 sooner than I said at this rate

And more action to come after the 11.30 briefing ... that is when the real punters will come out and play after asking their searching questions and all that sort of stuff

[winner69]

Thanks for the tips Black Peter.
Thought Emery must have sent it when he was in Russia.
See whether I get the strength to cope with reading it later?!

The presentation is all OK when I look at it
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/198429.pdf

[percy]

The presentation is all OK when I look at it
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/198429.pdf

Thanks Winner69.

[RGR367]

Funny that it did not go down low (2.60 - 2.70) and went back up to 3 bucks so quickly. Crystal ball is wrong again but I'm very happy nonetheless :)

[winner69]

Operating cash flow only about 50% of last years

Capex more than operating cash flow

Free cash flow in negative territory

Need to borrow, increase debt, to maintain that $41m dividend payout

No worries ...will right itself in FY15

[winner69]

LOL ... I remember 5 years ago at 1.50'ish ... FY15 you say? ... I can wait. ;)

Yes you can always trade the long term trends

2003/2005 was good for me.

2006 /2008 was good for me

2009/2011 was good for me

Last few years no big trends so still on sidelines

Take it you sold your 150 ones then belg

[winner69]

Be careful ... The downtrend is firmly in place and the 200 day MA was broken and the death cross occurred at $3.40.

Oh no one of those dreaded death crosses

Might be due for a positive cross over now belg ....just to make rgr happy

[BlackPeter]

Be careful ... The downtrend is firmly in place and the 200 day MA was broken and the death cross occurred at $3.40.

True - the trend still doesn't look flash, and you are right - short term it still might go down a bit. But than, if we look at the divie alone (21 cents/share) - what better place to park your money;)?

Discl: holding (and in the black);

[BlackPeter]

True - the trend still doesn't look flash, and you are right - short term it still might go down a bit. But than, if we look at the divie alone (21 cents/share) - what better place to park your money;)?

Discl: holding (and in the black);

looks like the trend might be turning as well ... SP up to 3.07 with quite significant volume (close to $4M).

[winner69]

looks like the trend might be turning as well ... SP up to 3.07 with quite significant volume (close to $4M).

I told you it would go to 350 post announcement.

Price always rises post profit announcements as the 45 page presentations and soothing believing words seduce the analysts and institutions

Look at 5 year chart below.

Red dots are announcement times. Interesting eh

And even you Blackpeter would have to agree that there is no current medium to long term trend is there. But NPX is good for that dividend if that is what brings you on.

Also note that the 350/360 level seems to be a long term resistance level. Don't forget this is a 5 year chart as well

But this time it different isn't it - the 350 will be smashed and 400 beckons

But for me I'll ride it up to 350 and see what happens .... from 290 that should give me 20% in a few weeks ....nice

[BlackPeter]

I told you it would go to 350 post announcement.

Price always rises post profit announcements as the 45 page presentations and soothing believing words seduce the analysts and institutions

Look at 5 year chart below.

Red dots are announcement times. Interesting eh

And even you Blackpeter would have to agree that there is no current medium to long term trend is there. But NPX is good for that dividend if that is what brings you on.

Also note that the 350/360 level seems to be a long term resistance level. Don't forget this is a 5 year chart as well

But this time it different isn't it - the 350 will be smashed and 400 beckons

But for me I'll ride it up to 350 and see what happens .... from 290 that should give me 20% in a few weeks ....nice

Hi winner, I never doubted you ;) ... and yes, while I like divies, I do have no problems to sell a stock when it appears overvalued (as NPX would be in my view at 3.50), i.e. if NPX reaches this mark (without the fundamentals changing), I'd consider your advise as a good one (just don't tell everybody else:sleep:).

Discl: At this stage just a quite happy holder.

[winner69]

Doesn't look like 350 any time soon.

Mr Severin doesn't seem to have seduced the market into believing his story this time around. Better luck at the ASM

Plan didn't work so taken the 20 cents plus profit. Try again one day

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't look like 350 any time soon.

Mr Severin doesn't seem to have seduced the market into believing his story this time around. Better luck at the ASM

Plan didn't work so taken the 20 cents plus profit. Try again one day

Looks like patience is not one of your strengths? Analysts have it on outperform and a 12 month target of 325 to 365. Not sure, whether I'd really wait for the 350, but currently happy to hold. More likely IMHO to go up than down.

Discl: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy ...

[winner69]

Looks like patience is not one of your strengths? Analysts have it on outperform and a 12 month target of 325 to 365. Not sure, whether I'd really wait for the 350, but currently happy to hold. More likely IMHO to go up than down.

Discl: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy ...

BP - I can be as patient as most as long as things going to plan

Being patient (or long term) with NPX is not a good plan if you want excessive returns as chart shows - 5 years worth

[winner69]

This should be beneficial to shareholders in the short term, even though they have put a massive effort into Masterbatch in recent years.

Hope it not a case of not persevering and finding it all too hard so just hock it off and the problem goes away.

Recent disposals been at less than carrying value.

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/201051.pdf


Might even reduce the number of Vice Presidents on board.

[winner69]

Nice bonus for you today black Peter

Your sell of 372 is it?

[winner69]

Specialties were $300m revenues and $14m EBITDA in FY14 with prospects for improved margins in FY15 they said

Hope they get a good price for you Peter

All of NPX trading around 5 times EBITDA (cheap as eh) so lets hope they screw CHAMP for at least $100m to improve 'shareholder value'

If $100m hats 50 cents a share - if course to be reinvested back in the business.

[BlackPeter]

Nice bonus for you today black Peter

Your sell of 372 is it?

Not sure I am that optimistic ;).... but yes, nice jump today ...

[winner69]

Specialties were $300m revenues and $14m EBITDA in FY14 with prospects for improved margins in FY15 they said

Hope they get a good price for you Peter

All of NPX trading around 5 times EBITDA (cheap as eh) so lets hope they screw CHAMP for at least $100m to improve 'shareholder value'

If $100m hats 50 cents a share - if course to be reinvested back in the business.

Got A$127m ..good

Pay down debt ...sensible

Maybe they should try to sell the whole business now ....to 'maximise shareholder returns' as Severin keeps on saying ....could be better than frittering away these new found riches that brings 'aded flexibility' to their 'growth' strategy ....licking their chops as to what to buy next I bet

[winner69]

ASM - suppose saying ebitda being a bit higher than last year is better than a downgrade. Plenty of time for that though?

But then they hocking a division off and actual ebitda is going to be less this year than last year.

Suppose that's good as well

Growth, growth, growth ......where is it?

[winner69]

Announcement says

Operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the 2015 Financial Year is expected to be between $127 and $137 million. This is based on 30 September 2014 exchange rates.

The sale of Nuplex Specialties and Masterbatch is expected to be completed by the end of November 2014. Once completed, operating EBITDA for the Group is forecast to be between $115 and $125 million which includes an estimate for the 5 month contribution from the Specialties segment.



Bit confused as to why they put the first statement in. I assume that the actual ebitda for the year will be $115m to $125m

The mention in first statement is misleading, at least I has fooled the press.

I might be totally wrong, like the ebitda in the first statement is a different type of ebitda in the second second statement

Never mind, punters should get excited anyway

[BlackPeter]

Announcement says

Operating earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the 2015 Financial Year is expected to be between $127 and $137 million. This is based on 30 September 2014 exchange rates.

The sale of Nuplex Specialties and Masterbatch is expected to be completed by the end of November 2014. Once completed, operating EBITDA for the Group is forecast to be between $115 and $125 million which includes an estimate for the 5 month contribution from the Specialties segment.



Bit confused as to why they put the first statement in. I assume that the actual ebitda for the year will be $115m to $125m

The mention in first statement is misleading, at least I has fooled the press.

I might be totally wrong, like the ebitda in the first statement is a different type of ebitda in the second second statement

Never mind, punters should get excited anyway

Agree with your interpretation and assessment (slightly misleading ...) but hey, if it helps to keep the SP on track ;).

On a second thought ... wouldn't we expect them to make some money from selling part of their business? Maybe the second forecast describes the EBITDA without one offs and the first includes the expected sales price?

Just a guess - confused:confused:

[winner69]

BP - the small print referenced by a * says excludes significant items, ie one offs

[BlackPeter]

Milford buying in ... so maybe it is a growth company after all;)?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NPX/announcements/257652

[winner69]

Milford buying in ... so maybe it is a growth company after all;)?

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NPX/announcements/257652

Just adding a few more .....terrible problem they have in spreading all the new cash around. Have to put it somewhere.

Wouldn't say is is a sign of total confidence in NPX

[winner69]

Jeez sell off part of the business and get punters excited with a windfall

And share price now lowest for some time

Getting back into maybe zone

No No No Winner - don't get tempted. Remember what you have told yourself over the las few years

[percy]

Jeez sell off part of the business and get punters excited with a windfall

And share price now lowest for some time

Getting back into maybe zone

No No No Winner - don't get tempted. Remember what you have told yourself over the las few years

Time you went and got some fresh air.
Check out those Rata.
If you are still having bad thoughts, look out for more Jeff jokes.!

[winner69]

Some commentators reckon the USD is going to go gangbusters over the next few years ...could get so strong as to be a cause of another GFC.

Recall Nuplex problems a few years ago when their overseas debt when translated into NZD caused the banks to **** themselves. Rights issue at 23 cents

That got debt equity ratio down to 19%. Currently over 30% but hocking off part of the family might have reduced that.

Nuplex have more than $150m in USD. Last accounts cross rate was 0.88 so in NZD terms debt going up up fast.

Hoe they have better relations with their bankers than 5 years ago

[janner]

Some commentators reckon the USD is going to go gangbusters over the next few years ...could get so strong as to be a cause of another GFC.

Recall Nuplex problems a few years ago when their overseas debt when translated into NZD caused the banks to **** themselves. Rights issue at 23 cents

That got debt equity ratio down to 19%. Currently over 30% but hocking off part of the family might have reduced that.

Nuplex have more than $150m in USD. Last accounts cross rate was 0.88 so in NZD terms debt going up up fast.

Hoe they have better relations with their bankers than 5 years ago

Hmmm .. Made an impressive heap the last time .. :-))))

A good point though W69.. Many lost..

[winner69]

Hmmm .. Made an impressive heap the last time .. :-))))

A good point though W69.. Many lost..

Good time to invest when things get desperate

May the presidents and Vice Presidents stuff up again

[percy]

Good time to invest when things get desperate

May the presidents and Vice Presidents stuff up again

With the share price below both the 50 and 200 day EMA, I would say they are doing just that.!! lol,

[Baa_Baa]

Good time to invest when things get desperate

May the presidents and Vice Presidents stuff up again

I've been watching this, enjoying the repartee, looking for the down trend to reverse - but the chart sure says things are desperate with an 18 month low looming. The current price trajectory would suggest that this is a terrible time to 'invest' (though if one was short NPX they'd be doing the jig, not that that is investing per se).

For anyone looking for an entry point on NPX, they'd be wise to keep their powder dry until the current capitulation plays out, IMHO. For the brave, $2.83 looks like some support, and the 18 month low at $2.75 less risky. Myself, I'd not try to scalp the exact low, and I won't buy into this steep down trend, I'm looking for confirmation of a reversal at least and preferably an uptrend is locked in.

But the FA's might want to wade in here because there's no real reason in a chart why the price has fallen around 33%, hence there's no reason a chart can give you why it won't continue down under $2.75, let alone where it might bottom out. Investors reckon the company is sickly, is it, really?

As for buying, or investing, 'right now' - only if you're a out and out gambler - that tomorrow it's going to all be upside. It might be, but I don't take those gambles.

Cheers,
BAA

6595

[BlackPeter]

Some commentators reckon the USD is going to go gangbusters over the next few years ...could get so strong as to be a cause of another GFC.

Recall Nuplex problems a few years ago when their overseas debt when translated into NZD caused the banks to **** themselves. Rights issue at 23 cents

That got debt equity ratio down to 19%. Currently over 30% but hocking off part of the family might have reduced that.

Nuplex have more than $150m in USD. Last accounts cross rate was 0.88 so in NZD terms debt going up up fast.

Hoe they have better relations with their bankers than 5 years ago

Interesting observation. On the other hand - they have as well a good part of their income in USD (or other foreign currency) - and interest rates are these days ways lower than they have been around the GFC. Long term interest rates suggest as well that interest are likely to stay low for some time - and their current liabilities to equity ratio is well within the "normal" range.

Dropping oil prices should give them a boost as well (makes their raw materials cheaper) - i.e. I am not sure, whether I see at this stage a repetition of the GFC scenario.

IMHO - looking at fundamentals currently a better time to buy, than to sell - though obviously the psychology of the falling knife scenario (from a TA perspective) should not be neglected.

Discl: holding.

[winner69]

Interesting observation. On the other hand - they have as well a good part of their income in USD (or other foreign currency) - and interest rates are these days ways lower than they have been around the GFC. Long term interest rates suggest as well that interest are likely to stay low for some time - and their current liabilities to equity ratio is well within the "normal" range.

Dropping oil prices should give them a boost as well (makes their raw materials cheaper) - i.e. I am not sure, whether I see at this stage a repetition of the GFC scenario.

IMHO - looking at fundamentals currently a better time to buy, than to sell - though obviously the psychology of the falling knife scenario (from a TA perspective) should not be neglected.

Discl: holding.

Largest chunk of their debt is the US $130m or so at 6.13% maturing in 2019

Some more recent stuff at much lower rates

Not saying they go broke or anything ....even when they had to raise capital at 23 cents they were making heaps of dollars (close to what they are making now)

And if Marketwinner right with is prediction a NZD at us50 cents overseas debt can suddenly become a problem.

[macduffy]

I wouldn't spend too much time guessing about forecasts for the NZD/USD at whatever date. The important thing is that the trend - both currency and shareprice - is keeping me away from NPX for the present.

[blackcap]

Winner... what you reackon.. $4 time maybe coming up...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208225.pdf

[BlackPeter]

sweet:

7083

On face value an amazing result ... I guess the cheaper oil price (raw materials) and the lower NZD did help, but still: Well done!

[percy]

Yes,amazing.!!!!

[blackcap]

Yes,amazing.!!!!

Hiya Percy, do I detect a hint of sarcasm there or are you truly in awe of this awesome result? I am picking if they can get the 2015 FY they are aiming for that $4 will not be too far off....

[percy]

Hiya Percy, do I detect a hint of sarcasm there or are you truly in awe of this awesome result? I am picking if they can get the 2015 FY they are aiming for that $4 will not be too far off....

I lost "faith" in this company a few years ago when they appointed all the "presidents" and failed to do what they said they would do,so not sarcasm,more surprised.

[blackcap]

I lost "faith" in this company a few years ago when they appointed all the "presidents" and failed to do what they said they would do,so not sarcasm,more surprised.

Cheers, I did know you lost faith a while back so I was just wondering where you stood... :) THinking of getting back in now or are you waiting for confirmation that they truly are on track. I suppose one fart does not make a sewage pond...

[percy]

Cheers, I did know you lost faith a while back so I was just wondering where you stood... :) THinking of getting back in now or are you waiting for confirmation that they truly are on track. I suppose one fart does not make a sewage pond...

You have such a way with words,"one fart..................." lol.
I spent all my spare funds recently buying AIR,SEK and SCL, chasing divies.
Depending on how the result season goes ,it may be sometime before NPX comes back onto my watch list.

[winner69]

Winner... what you reackon.. $4 time maybe coming up...

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/208225.pdf

Off course 4 bucks time, maybe some time

Amazing .....they actually produced a positive result that the market liked. Not really amazing though, what you would expect of a solid chemical company,



That FY guidance not that good considering where they come from

And might buy their own shares to underpin the 3 bucks anyway

Like Percy no excitement here

[RGR367]

Well, NPX tried it's hardest to stay above 300. A real little battler is NPX isn't it but it finally succumbed and 290 odd it is

RGR - no doubt you will see your 260-274 but I have my doubts whether you will see 300 in the next year or two

Morbid fascination with NPX continues. A few weeks to go to the full year announcement ......wonder if they can conjure up some more bad news

Well, this has to pass Winner69 considering you said it only last July of last year. :) My 260-274 then was really looking good now. :t_up:

[winner69]

Well, this has to pass Winner69 considering you said it only last July of last year. :) My 260-274 then was really looking good now. :t_up:

Well done mate .....good timing. You have indeed done well, very well in fact..

The timing was impeccable, better than hose who bought a year and are still under water

But just don't get complacent. Be prepared to lock in profits before the next prat warning .....there will be one, one day

[BlackPeter]

(22/8/2014) Doesn't look like 350 any time soon.

Mr Severin doesn't seem to have seduced the market into believing his story this time around. Better luck at the ASM

Plan didn't work so taken the 20 cents plus profit. Try again one day


(22/8/2014) Looks like patience is not one of your strengths? Analysts have it on outperform and a 12 month target of 325 to 365. Not sure, whether I'd really wait for the 350, but currently happy to hold. More likely IMHO to go up than down.

Discl: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy ...

Hi winner - remember this wee discussion from August 2014? See - just looking at today's SP - this is the difference a bit patience can make. And actually - last years analysts consensus opinion doesn't seem to have been too far off target ... and yes, I did wait for the 350 ... :t_up:

[winner69]

Cmon you buggers - whose deleted a lot of recent posts

Everything doesn't make sense now

Good ol NPX eh, the little battler is coming right. Great news indeed and well done guys

NPX upgrade is like Bill English's Surplus ... they eventually come

[winner69]

I see now .... there is two threads for Nuplex

The other one is better

[winner69]

15/8/14

I told you it would go to 350 post announcement...................................Als o note that the 350/360 level seems to be a long term resistance level. Don't forget this is a 5 year chart as well .....

But this time it different isn't it - the 350 will be smashed and 400 beckons

But for me I'll ride it up to 350 and see what happens .... from 290 that should give me 20% in a few weeks ....nice

Took my miserly 20 cents and went to greener more lucrative pastures.

But you guys have done well ......and as 400 beckons again you will be all be even richer.

Just as well for positive market sentiment at the moment eh (and they themselves doing well supporting the price with the buybacks) as even with this guidance upgrade earnings are that great compared to the last few years are they.

[McGyro]

I'm staying in a bit longer; the yield is still OK and they seem to be weathering a rough patch well. Their management style and doggedness impresses me, like EBO used to until I stupidly sold out. While the ubiquity of their feedstocks demands a high rate of innovation to stay well placed in the global pack, I think then may well be up to it.

[winner69]

NPX attached an old notice to today's buyback announcement

A bit lax .....but a reminder they were buying 'cheap' shares at 328 on April 13th and 'expensive' shares yesterday at 352

[winner69]

My morbid fascination with NPX continues - updated some old stuff.

The chart is NPX EPS and share price over the last few years

Earnings are pretty consistent eh - hardly steady growth is it, looks like declining to me over time.

Seems to me that the share price follows market sentiment rather than NPX actual performance.

Currently its PE is the highest its been for years - just like the NZX.

All rather boring eh .... market goes up and NPX goes up .... if market goes down will NPX go down as well?

Even if you go back further the earnings trend is very much the same - unexciting in spite of all the exciting innovative things and restructuring Nuplex has done

Never mind 4 bucks beckons and then maybe 5 bucks, esp if this Australasian company has got it's house in order.

Go for it guys - at this stage I won't be joining you. Less boring things elsewhere

[winner69]

Bought back 3.3 million shares so far out of 10 million

No doubt TSR is part of senior management incentive scheme ..... so TSR higher with a buyback ......juicier bonuses. Sneaky eh, oops I forgot its a capital management thing. Silly me

[BlackPeter]

My morbid fascination with NPX continues - updated some old stuff.

The chart is NPX EPS and share price over the last few years

Earnings are pretty consistent eh - hardly steady growth is it, looks like declining to me over time.

Seems to me that the share price follows market sentiment rather than NPX actual performance.

Currently its PE is the highest its been for years - just like the NZX.

All rather boring eh .... market goes up and NPX goes up .... if market goes down will NPX go down as well?

Even if you go back further the earnings trend is very much the same - unexciting in spite of all the exciting innovative things and restructuring Nuplex has done

Never mind 4 bucks beckons and then maybe 5 bucks, esp if this Australasian company has got it's house in order.

Go for it guys - at this stage I won't be joining you. Less boring things elsewhere

Agree - NPX doesn't look cheap anymore, though you never know, where the market still might push the SP. Always good for over-shoots (as well as under-shoots). Sold out yesterday (after holding for a couple of years or so), but didn't found the ride boring - actually, I would describe it more as energizing and gainful ;) instead.

[winner69]

Agree - NPX doesn't look cheap anymore, though you never know, where the market still might push the SP. Always good for over-shoots (as well as under-shoots). Sold out yesterday (after holding for a couple of years or so), but didn't found the ride boring - actually, I would describe it more as energizing and gainful ;) instead.

Well done BP .....sounds like you have doe well

So not really an investor, a trader of prices eh?

Didn't you think it would get to 4 bucks or more

[blackcap]

Its on the move again today. For better or worse, I think the buy back will underpin the stock price for as long as it is in operation.
$4 may be there on the horizon if the DOW keeps going north.

[BlackPeter]

Well done BP .....sounds like you have doe well

So not really an investor, a trader of prices eh?

Didn't you think it would get to 4 bucks or more

I consider myself as investor - and my focus is to invest in undervalued stocks paying a good dividend (sorry, I am a bit picky in that regard, I know). In my view does NPX at current not anymore belong into the category undervalued - i.e. unfortunately I had to follow my investment strategy (rules are rules and they are there for a reason) and sell the shares. They paid me over the years handsome dividends ... and that I made some gain when selling them was just an unavoidable side effect of following my investment strategy.

No real view on the $4 per share ... they may or may not reach them. However staying in and hoping for this uncertain event to happen would be in my view pure speculation - and that's not investment as I see it.

[macduffy]

Bought back 3.3 million shares so far out of 10 million

No doubt TSR is part of senior management incentive scheme ..... so TSR higher with a buyback ......juicier bonuses. Sneaky eh, oops I forgot its a capital management thing. Silly me

A rare instance of shareholder and management interests coinciding!

;)

[blackcap]

Talking about a 27 cent dividend for the 15 FY... that $4 may not be so far off after all. Winner you following the squiggly line or not in this one?

[winner69]

Talking about a 27 cent dividend for the 15 FY... that $4 may not be so far off after all. Winner you following the squiggly line or not in this one?

It get over $4 easy in the short to medium term .....then anything could happen, like between $3 again and $5 again

Not in this time around as don't play around with many stocks (highly concentrated portfolio)

Funny, and frustrating, thing is the boring old Nuplex is providing heaps of action while that exciting well run bank called Heartland is going backwards. How things haves changed - even Percy won't believe that.

[blackcap]

It get over $4 easy in the short to medium term .....then anything could happen, like between $3 again and $5 again

Not in this time around as don't play around with many stocks (highly concentrated portfolio)

Funny, and frustrating, thing is the boring old Nuplex is providing heaps of action while that exciting well run bank called Heartland is going backwards. How things haves changed - even Percy won't believe that.

Good call there winner... 398 as I type, up another 12 cents. That buy back certainly is putting a rocket under the share price. Pity its going to end at sometime :)

[winner69]

Good call there winner... 398 as I type, up another 12 cents. That buy back certainly is putting a rocket under the share price. Pity its going to end at sometime :)

Probably push on to 5 bucks now

Everybody likes Nuplex now .....giving cash back to shareholders and promising bigger divies. What else could punters want

[winner69]

Already on its way to 5 bucks blackcap

[blackcap]

Already on its way to 5 bucks blackcap

Cheers winner. Waiting for the rain to disappear in England, might have to but some more as $5 is looking likely if it keeps going like this.

[macduffy]

An encouraging result from a boring old chemical company!

http://www.nuplex.com/Corporate/getattachment/2b85789b-e2bb-4a87-b8de-8f655d093c0a/document.aspx

:)

[BeeBop]

With you on that one...a good reporting day for my holdings! Now to 'crunch' the numbers to make my day interesting.

[winner69]

An encouraging result from a boring old chemical company!

http://www.nuplex.com/Corporate/getattachment/2b85789b-e2bb-4a87-b8de-8f655d093c0a/document.aspx

:)

Yes very encouraging result froma boring old chemical company

Downsized but give hem credit they did make more money. Increased profit from efficiencies and less interest, not from selling more.

EBIT still trending down from the $110m in 2010 (trending down means less or about the same as the prior year). They do what owing old helical companies don- make stuff, restructure things as the world changes and have lots of capex and make just enough money to cover the cost of capital. That's what I find boring / not exciting.

Still for those that like it a dividend comes most years and the share price will mirror market sentiment through the market cycle.

Morbid fascination continues and will update my models in case there is some hidden exciting gem in there somewhere.

[winner69]

ASM this week

Will be saying a really good start to the year and guidance for F16 will surprise on the upside

Share price to take a step up this week

[winner69]

ASM this week

Will be saying a really good start to the year and guidance for F16 will surprise on the upside

Share price to take a step up this week

WOW - Operating Earnings might be as high as $155m

That's a HUGE INCREASE on last years $127m

Things going well

[winner69]

Methinks share price $5 is on the horizon

Headline says 22% earnings boost for F16 - that should boost the share price eh

[winner69]

Been pushing good stories out for the press this week

All about its new chemistry hat will take the world by storm
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/73672559/nuplex-causes-a-stir-with-new-chemistry-paint-component

Russia all ok
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nuplex-says-new-business-insulates-russian-unit-sanction-induced-recession-b-181127

But market doesn't seem too convinced since the updated guidance

[Crackity]

Methinks share price $5 is on the horizon

Headline says 22% earnings boost for F16 - that should boost the share price eh

You heading for the exit Winner?

[winner69]

Would have thought the guidance would have done wonders for the share - instead drifting down and now 413

Wrong again, never mind

[winner69]

Just after Xmas I was going to post that the $5 mark was only a day or two away. It was $4.86 when I though that and it had some real positive momentum

But heck a month later its just holding onto the $4 mark

Down 16% in a month - wonder what's up?

[percy]

Just after Xmas I was going to post that the $5 mark was only a day or two away. It was $4.86 when I though that and it had some real positive momentum

But heck a month later its just holding onto the $4 mark

Down 16% in a month - wonder what's up?

Maybe the low oil price will mean NPX will have to lower prices and maybe work on lower margins.
This could mean NPX will have trouble paying all The Presidents and Vice Presidents they employ?

[winner69]

Wow $5.55 and possibly more

If it eventuates utters be stupid to say no

Celebration time Black Peter with the heaps you have invested here - well done and just reward for hanging in there and having the faith

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NPX/announcements/277623

[winner69]

You off the floor yet BP. - heard the crash here when you fainted in disbelief

[blackcap]

Wow $5.55 and possibly more

If it eventuates utters be stupid to say no

Celebration time Black Peter with the heaps you have invested here - well done and just reward for hanging in there and having the faith

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NPX/announcements/277623

That comes out of the blue. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. NPX was just turning the corner as far as I could make out and starting to up its profits and dividends. But as a shareholder who got in low $3's its not a bad thing.
Thats what all those Presidents and Vice Presidents are for Percy.... find potential bidders :)
Winner... you still holding or had your squiggly line taken you out?

[RGR367]

Wow $5.55 and possibly more

If it eventuates utters be stupid to say no

Celebration time Black Peter with the heaps you have invested here - well done and just reward for hanging in there and having the faith

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NPX/announcements/277623

I got HEAPS of it so YES, Yippee ki yay all the way to the bank when it's done!!! :t_up: :t_up:

[winner69]

You off the floor yet BP. - heard the crash here when you fainted in disbelief

BP - sorry for the excitment as I notice you seem to have sold out.

You did give me heaps about this old fashioned chemical company - market consolidation is generally the best outcome.

[BlackPeter]

BP - sorry for the excitment as I notice you seem to have sold out.

You did give me heaps about this old fashioned chemical company - market consolidation is generally the best outcome.

Yes, I did sell out, with a nice bonus, but in hindsight clearly too early. Looks like somebody else saw still more value in this company than I did at the time. Never mind - NPX was clearly one of my better investments.

Anyway - congratulations to all present holders - good to see NZ companies going from strength to strength!

[jonu]

Where do others see this settling in the interim? Offer $5.55 less previous div of .27 = $5.28, but surely that should only be discounted a few cents in terms of SP. I would have thought around $5.45 or higher if the offer is likely to increase.

Discl. Holding

[blackcap]

Where do others see this settling in the interim? Offer $5.55 less previous div of .27 = $5.28, but surely that should only be discounted a few cents in terms of SP. I would have thought around $5.45 or higher if the offer is likely to increase.

Discl. Holding

Why are you taking the previous div off the offer price? The takeover is offer price - up coming interim div..... isn't it?

[jonu]

Why are you taking the previous div off the offer price? The takeover is offer price - up coming interim div..... isn't it?

Correct Blackcap. Even better! Interim div likely to be...?

[winner69]

Yes, I did sell out, with a nice bonus, but in hindsight clearly too early. Looks like somebody else saw still more value in this company than I did at the time. Never mind - NPX was clearly one of my better investments.

Anyway - congratulations to all present holders - good to see NZ companies going from strength to strength!

The value of synergies/complementary things to a keen buyer is what makes the deal attractive

John Hirst et al should be proud of what he started. Hasn't really been a NZ company for some years though - global run out of Sydney with NZ operations gradually disappearing.

[macduffy]

It'll be a pity to lose another listed company from the NZX but I'll be happy to vote for this if it eventuates. A triumph of inertia over active portfolio management in my case though, having held since I don't know when and buying more in the rights issue in them dark days a few years back.

[percy]

It'll be a pity to lose another listed company from the NZX but I'll be happy to vote for this if it eventuates. A triumph of inertia over active portfolio management in my case though, having held since I don't know when and buying more in the rights issue in them dark days a few years back.

Well done.!

[biker]

How come this is in a trading halt in AU until 11am (1pm NZ time) with no announcement to the stock exchange to that effect. Trading happily in NZ but halted in OZ. Weird.

[777]

And only one (sideshowbob) had it in this years competition.

[blackcap]

And only one (sideshowbob) had it in this years competition.

The price action this morning/afternoon is interesting. Offer is at $5.55 and some discount is expected but a 10% discount to me suggests that Mr Market does not place too much faith in the deal going through? I thought the board are going to recommend the offer so is this not almost a certainty.... worth buying at $5.05 or thereabouts for a short term 50 cent gain?

[macduffy]

The price action this morning/afternoon is interesting. Offer is at $5.55 and some discount is expected but a 10% discount to me suggests that Mr Market does not place too much faith in the deal going through? I thought the board are going to recommend the offer so is this not almost a certainty.... worth buying at $5.05 or thereabouts for a short term 50 cent gain?

Not if the "offeror" finds something they don't like and drops the offer price. Indicative, non-binding.

[jonu]

The price action this morning/afternoon is interesting. Offer is at $5.55 and some discount is expected but a 10% discount to me suggests that Mr Market does not place too much faith in the deal going through? I thought the board are going to recommend the offer so is this not almost a certainty.... worth buying at $5.05 or thereabouts for a short term 50 cent gain?

Can only assume a large player/s are locking some profit in. High volume, so I figure once the seller/s departs up she'll go. It's the purchaser's third bite so they must be serious and the board is recommending

[blackcap]

Not if the "offeror" finds something they don't like and drops the offer price. Indicative, non-binding.

There is that risk yes, but I see that as a get out of jail card, however if NPX have been behaving well not sure if they will use it. I suppose it gives them an out if global markets go tits up.

[BeeBop]

I also am stunned as it is my 5 th share in 4 years to be bought out (uk and nz markets)....I must be jinxed...shall continue to stick to my selection criteria.

[winner69]

Spose not many interested in NPX reports any more

Today's one just confirms what a great deal the takeover offer is

Got to give credit to the Belgians for the timing. The offer price wouldn't have looked too good/attractive just prior to Christmas but a month later a 40%+ premium is fantastic.

[macduffy]

Hi winner, I'm still interested - in case the indicative non-binding "offer" comes to naught!

Pretty good result though, wasn't it! NPAT from continuing operations before significant items up 16.3%.

:)

[blackcap]

Hi winner, I'm still interested - in case the indicative non-binding "offer" comes to naught!

Pretty good result though, wasn't it! NPAT from continuing operations before significant items up 16.3%.

:)

Reads well, including their upgrade for FY 16. I am sort of sweet sour about the Belgian offer. RIght behind you there winner with the timing. Wonder why NPX fell from $5 to low $4's in the preceeding 2 months. A skeptic may say some were going short.... but surely that kind of manipulation does not happen. In this case I think its just a matter of global markets etc and the Belgians timing it right.

[RGR367]

Slowly but surely (hoping so) getting to that indicative price where it can be acquired. I already have a lot of it but gut feel made me bought a bit more at 5.01 a month ago. Hope it doesn't turn into a losing gamble in chasing a few more cents :cool:

[macduffy]

NPX directors unanimously back Allnex bid. SP up 17c today.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1604/S00319/nuplex-directors-unanimously-back-105-billion-allnex-bid.htm

[RGR367]

NPX directors unanimously back Allnex bid. SP up 17c today.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1604/S00319/nuplex-directors-unanimously-back-105-billion-allnex-bid.htm

Stand to lose a lot of "money on paper gain" but I'll be voting to keep the status quo too just like what NZSA is saying. Hate to see this getting acquired by outsiders at this stage. What about you Guys?

[BWH]

Stand to lose a lot of "money on paper gain" but I'll be voting to keep the status quo too just like what NZSA is saying. Hate to see this getting acquired by outsiders at this stage. What about you Guys?

I've voted for. I stand to do very well out of it, having got in during the low point of '09. If this doesn't go through, I see the share price heading south significantly.

[mshierlaw]

I've voted for. I stand to do very well out of it, having got in during the low point of '09. If this doesn't go through, I see the share price heading south significantly.

Yep, voted for also. Sad to see this go overseas but not really a NZ company any more. Did you see the penalty dividends for late settlement?

[BWH]

Yep, voted for also. Sad to see this go overseas but not really a NZ company any more. Did you see the penalty dividends for late settlement?

Yes. Quite possible too, given the current European distractions. Another bonus I guess.

[macduffy]

I've also voted "for". Sorry to see ownership of another "NZ"company - actually run out of Sydney these days - leave the lists, but it would cost me too much to lie down on the tracks in the path of this particular train!

[iafilm]

Yep, voted for also. Sad to see this go overseas but not really a NZ company any more. Did you see the penalty dividends for late settlement?


No! And I am surprised not to see more of a debate on this.
I object to this "Nuplexit" scheme, mainly because it strips the NZ share market of an important industry class of share buying opportunity for someone like me buying shares to be responsible about saving for retirement. I am not interested in playing games with short term blips in a long term view.


I see this in the scheme booklet: (printed page no 35 of Grant Samuel Report / electronic page 114 of 198)




For those shareholders wishing to retain an equity investment in the resins or coatings sector there are currently no other listed
chemical companies listed on the NZX, although there are numerous chemical companies listed on other international stock exchanges.


Is this a reasonable statement? From my limited experience and now trying to find out more, I learn that buying ASX-listed shares results in dividends being effectively double-taxed. And there are costs and administrative requirements involved in investing in other international stock exchanges that do not make the investment worthwhile for small investors.


Quoting another writer above:



...but not really a NZ company any more..



My response - it is good to be able to buy shares on the NZX in a wider scope overseas technology rich company.


The scheme booklet also says this: (print pg 32, electronic pg 34/198).




Recently, Nuplex launched its breakthrough technology, Acure™. Launched in April 2015, this new, non‑iscocyanate, two‑package coating technology provides unrivalled control over drying speed and pot‑life and has been positively received by customers. Nuplex estimates the global market opportunity for Acure™ to be between US$1 billion and US$2 billion, and by the end of the 2020 financial year, Nuplex is aiming to have between 5% and 10% of this market.


Excuse me but I think breakthrough technology is a good thing to invest in! To achieve in business you need to stick with initiatives like this. Someone tell me please why anyone would want to throw this away and "take the money and run"!

[macduffy]

All very reasonable reasons to vote against the scheme, iafilm, and I guess you will have done so by now. But a lot of longtime NPX shareholders will have shared my experience of being invested in a company which has lost its way at times - almost fatally a few years ago when foreign currency borrowings against overseas acquisitions blew out as the NZD lost value against the USD. Those shareholders might feel that NPX has had multiple opportunities to prosper and that the chance to quit while the price is there should be taken. Breakthrough technologies sometimes don't deliver all that their proponents hope or expect and are subject to obolescence as the next big development comes along.

You probably feel the same way that early investors in that Palmerston North outfit, Glaxo, felt all those years ago when it ceased to be an NZ company. Seems to be the fate of our best businesses to attract suitors but we don't have that on our own. I heard this morning that Sharp, the Japanese TV pioneer, is well on the way to becoming a subsidiary of a Taiwanese buyer.

Good luck, whichever way things pan out.

[RGR367]

It was close but NUPexit clears vote hurdle from NBR pay wall and to sum it up:
"An announcement filed to the NZX this morning showed there were 142.7 million proxy votes in favour of the takeover, representing 75.7% of Nuplex’s 188.6 million shares on issue.

There were 1.9 million against and two million cast at the discretion of the chairman."

Sad to see this stock leave my portfolio. Though I voted against this NUPexit thing, I will still be laughing all the way to the bank when it happens. Hope a lot of you would be making heaps of money too :t_down::t_up:

[mshierlaw]

It was close but NUPexit clears vote hurdle from NBR pay wall and to sum it up:
"An announcement filed to the NZX this morning showed there were 142.7 million proxy votes in favour of the takeover, representing 75.7% of Nuplex’s 188.6 million shares on issue.

There were 1.9 million against and two million cast at the discretion of the chairman."

Sad to see this stock leave my portfolio. Though I voted against this NUPexit thing, I will still be laughing all the way to the bank when it happens. Hope a lot of you would be making heaps of money too :t_down::t_up:

69% net return for a 16 month investment (august payout). :t_up:

Got a call from NPX last week to confirm I was going to vote, strange! Must say the drop in share price leading up to the vote was somewhat concerning, set in some doubts.

[macduffy]

69% net return for a 16 month investment (august payout). :t_up:

Got a call from NPX last week to confirm I was going to vote, strange! Must say the drop in share price leading up to the vote was somewhat concerning, set in some doubts.

Purely a defensive move to hedge against a No vote - on the part of those selling.

[macduffy]

All rather academic now but NPX profit up 19%.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11695609

[bigbruce]

When is the take over happening? Thought it was to be finalised August

[macduffy]

Reported on 7 July:

" .....
The takeover still has a couple more hurdles to overcome, including regulatory approval from the European Union, followed by the final approval of the High Court.

However, Mr Springford said he was confident Allnex would receive the European Union's approval by early August, with shareholders paid out by the end of August."

[bigbruce]

just trying to figure out the compensatory dividend and what it means, could we be in for extra $.



3rd Aug announcement




Compensatory dividend key details


o NZ 0.075 cents per share.


o Will be payable for each day by which implementation of the Scheme is


delayed solely as a result of obtaining EC antitrust approval from and


including today


o The record date for the dividend is expected to be 7.00 pm NZT on the date


four business days after the date on which EC antitrust approval is granted,


and is expected to be paid three business days after the record date





Currently, completion is expected to occur in mid-September 2016, following


the receipt of EC approval in early September 2016. Nuplex will provide a


further update once the exact timetable is known.

[Scrunch]

The way I figure it, its about 5% pa on a pro-rata basis from the start of Aug (0.075*365 = 27.4c and 27.4/543=5.0%)
It could be why some of the brokerage places are buying because if you assume the takeover is going through, where else do you get 5% on short-term money?
There may be some residual imputation credits attached that increase the effective rate but this would be an unexpected bonus.

[RGR367]

Money in the Bank. Thanks NPX for being such a good share. And goodbye too. Congrats to all who made heaps on this one. Oh what a feeling :t_up:

[Jim]

Money in the Bank for me as well. What to buy now ? Money is no good in the bank, maybe Tower or ATM, another potential target....

[winner69]

Lest we forget we can't let the demise of the good old fashioned chemical company Nuplex pass without comment

Some will rejoice that a shining knight came to the rescue and finally put this dog out of its misery, and gave them a decent payday as a reward for their perseverance and faith

Others will lament that the white knight didn't come earlier as they still dream of what could have been. Many long time shareholders either ended up under water or regrettably look back on long periods of sub-par or negative returns.

Give Nuplex credit where credit is due. Year after year as good old fashioned chemical companies should Nuplex always turned in a profit. Nothing spectacular but solid. Even in its last days they were solid, but not that brilliant. They were even innovative but then good old fashioned chemical companies need to be innovative just to stay in the game.

A good old NZ company with solid management. Over 40 odd years Hirst's halo shone brightly at times but regrettably as he got older things got out of hand. Biggest mistake was bowing to the institutional pressure to grow. Result was global expansion and increased debt. Their abysmal handling of affairs when the NZD collapsed which saw debt in NZD terms balloon was sad to see. Their woeful management of the relationship with their bankers brought the business to the edge of bankruptcy - even though they were still profitable. Only a huge bail out by existing shareholders saved the day.

And so the good old NZ company effectively became an Australian run and operated company, not having any real presence in NZ. Sign of the times I suppose as the decline in the NZ manufacturing sector continues but that's a story for another day.

Nuplex was the subject of much debate on Sharetrader over the years. On the first page of this thread Phaedrus had the temerity to rightly call Nuplex a dog. But at other times Nuplex has been a star and a share market darling (god bless them because good old fashioned chemical companies should never be share market darlings). And of course we should never forget those greedy vultures who came and picked at the bones when it nearly died .....and prospered

Nuplex not a good long term buy and hold stock but a fantastic trading stock for medium / long term traders. The chart below shows you when it was good to be in and when to be out. Trading the trends was fantastic.

Nuplex was very good to me over the years. Alas I will never see another share price collapse and a decent recovery again to prosper again.

Nice knowing you Nuplex - hope your new owners don't neglect you.