Benitec - BLT

[Jollyrodger]

Gee whizz folks. I reckon this one could be the next SBM. Pressing upwards at the moment on ever increasing volumes.

Some of the similarities to SBM include good fundamental assets in
its IP as with SBM's gold fields, long downward trend being broken
by a bottoming out and range bound trading for a long time currently threatening break out. Series of legal and partner spats resolved. A capital restructuring. And in September interest from un-named outside parties.

The cap restructure was made with an option attached exercisable
@32c in 08. It was a non-renounceable rights issue which means no
secondary market available for those who didn't want to take it up.
Which suggests to me the underwriter, in co-operation with the
directors as sub-underwriters, wanted in with leverage out to 08.
This is where the little guy gets stuffed over by the big guy. The big guy in this case was Citibank associated. [:0]

The IP infringment litigation was resolved, according to them successfully. Financial details are suppressed but I believe their patent was upheld which means licensing fees etc from those using the IP. In other words an up tick in revenue with no exclusive arrangements to the opposing party. Meaning potentially more revenue from other licensee's in the future. I think this is being challenged at the moment which means it must be valuable if the licensee wants exclusivity.

Further, looking forward they expect to have two trials go to phase
1 next year. One for HIV and the other for Hep C. Monte Carlo
valuation should raise the inherent value along with increased
licensing fees as these do. However they also raise the cost base.

Market cap is nearly $23m @15c. Most of that is cash value.

[ananda77]

Looks like you're right. BLT trading at the 2001 price level and from a technical point of view has good changes to go into an uptrend.

Williams%R150 gave a strong Buy-Signal accompanied with good volumes. The last Buy-signal of that order happened back in August 2002 resulting in a strong uptrend with a High of value-134

DMI40 bullish with DI+ above DI-. However, ADX just bottoming out from a loooong downtrend and has not given a buy-signal just yet.

Currently long in BLT.

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Jolly:

blt(asx): rising wedge = continuation signal of down-trend...sold out with a small loss on this one...too much "holding space" needed for my liking.

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/blt1.gif</center>

[tracker]

um nice

tracker

[slam]

Good pickup Jolly;)
Cheers
Slam

[cloggs]

what do these guys actually do?

[Doc]

You would have to be an idiot to throw money at this outfit. Any investor or company willing to throw money their way to bail them out will lose out big time. Never made a cent, and never will. They have no product. RNAi is old news, multiple companys and institutions claim the same patents (with much deeper pockets) and the research can be duplicated. RIP Benitec.

[Lizard]

Maybe time to pull Benitec thread back out of oblivion.

Some very positive recent developments on the IP and Graham '099 patent. Key IP in the RNAi field - and seems this field has finally started to emerge into commercial arena, so there's potential for a royalty goldmine.

Still a high risk punt - minimal capital could still see the valuable IP diluted or played to the vultures.

(Enumerate, are you still holding the BLTO?)

[STRAT]

Hi Liz. Are you on this? Nice rise but it looks like it might be done.

[Lizard]

Hi Liz. Are you on this? Nice rise but it looks like it might be done.

Hi Strat, No, I don't hold. Have too many spec punts to be playing with at the moment. However, I think it could be an interesting one to follow - hard to put a number on the value though.

[Enumerate]

Enumerate, are you still holding the BLTO?

Yes ... have been buying head shares since the appeal success.

I am also buying Phylogica (PYC) - the PYCO are an exceptional buy at the moment.

[Lizard]

Thanks Enumerate. I'd rate your understanding of IP as being best on this forum, so appreciate your opinion. Rating it as a BUY is good :).

That just leaves the guess work as to how much they will be bullied into giving away in exchange for access to funding... management team has a bit of an AAH flavour and I never felt that deal with Cephalon was made in the best interests of shareholders, but that probably had more to do with those behind Evogenix.

[Enumerate]

RNAi is a bit out of fashion with Big Pharma, at the moment. We are at the nadir ... the zenith being the sale of Sirna for $1.1billion.

However, the CSIRO IP has been confirmed in spectacular fashion - BLT has human rights to all of this.

The big downside is the La Jolla convertible note deal. Without positive news flow - these conversions will slowly erode the shareprice.

However, on balance, it is worth having a stake (there is more patent news upside; there is therapeutic upside). Look for transaction when the USPTO dots all the 'i's' and crosses the 't's'.

[Lizard]

Hi Enumerate,

I see BLT off on a run on the back of some pretty good results from early studies by others using ddRNAI based technology. Both Hep C and Cancer treatments. La Jolla Cove out the way for now too.

With any commercialisation still a long way off, it is hard to say whether there is value here - they need a source of cash to keep going and to give them some grunt in negotiating licensing deals. Seem likely to sink back into the doldrums again for another year unless there is takeover activity or an early license.

12% of shares traded today and 10% yesterday.

[Lizard]

Might be the start of the break-out from recent consolidation and possibly will look for confirmation of new uptrend this morning. Been a bit more volume and interest since recent announcements.

[Lizard]

Okay, well still patiently waiting for this stock to actually have a break-out that doesn't fizz... bit more interest last few days and good pick up in volume. Now 1.8cps. Possibly on the back of the presentation released yesterday - and more than likely still prelim to raising enough capital to enter the clinic later this year.... on the other hand, with a good hand in RNAi technology, the possibility of a positive surprise, (or at least a good blue-sky ramp :)), is always there.

[Joshuatree]

57 c atm was up to 58.5 c and no slowing yet.

[Lizard]

Since last post on this thread, stock has consolidated 25:1, so that 1.8cps now equivalent to 45cps. Have also raised additional capital and are well-funded for the short-term.

Now have one licensee in clinical trials - Calimmune on HIV safety and efficacy phase I/IIa, first cohort. Benitec have IND submission for TT-034 for Hep C treatment, with first treatment this quarter. This could well be "proof of the pudding" for ddRNAI therapies and be make-or-break for the value of Benitec's key I.P.

Share price has firmed significantly in recent days and currently 58.5cps. However, there is huge spec potential should there be signs of success in early trials (or setback should trials hit problems.). A fun lotto stock, with the side-benefit of potentially watching history in the making as gene therapy comes of age!

[Joshuatree]

Tout De Suite A double bagger plus in double quick time 62c atm. Congrats liz and anyone else on the:t_up: bus.

[Lizard]

Well, we got as far as 75.5cps, but what goes up fast can also come down fast... back to 50cps again.

[Joshuatree]

Lotta shares released from escrow too.

[Joshuatree]

But they can only sell re $180,000 a month by the looks. Maybe mkt didnt realise this. Could also be insto's manipulating to buy in.

[Lizard]

Shareholder update on 15 November (day after the agm) regarding progress on TT-034 and with a presentation from Calimmune on status of the HIV trial.

Given several participants in the HIV trial have already been identified via on-line discussion groups and social media, there is high likelihood of indicative results leaking into investor hands, so it is good to see the company taking the initiative here. Could be the biotech equivalent of a drill-bit moment.

[Joshuatree]

Topped up @51c

[Lizard]

I am irritated that they haven't put the Friday Shareholder update presentation from Geoff Symonds on Calimmune trials out yet - the AGM presentation was very definite that it would be lodged with the ASX and put on the web-site. Presumably, nothing price-sensitive was said in regard to any initial indications from first cohort dosing. :confused:

[Joshuatree]

74c now ; Announcement that Human trials are to commence helped the price up.

[Lizard]

Big jump in BNIKF last night on the US to 80c - i.e. about 90-91cps aussie. Sudden volume surge underpinning it.

Will be interesting to see if the larger Aussie market can follow or whether this is just local US interest from investor discussion boards.

[Joshuatree]

Back up 5 c to re 75.5c on good vol for BLT. Have Taken the top off my holdings, close to taking a free ride which is always a nice posse to aim for.

[Lizard]

Hi JT, glad to have some company - now 84.5cps, so we are on a roll! Think I will hold mine a bit longer before I start taking profits - at least "until the drill bit approaches target depth", so to speak and the first patient results begin to come off the line... speculation prior could push it a bit further.

However, it has been a much longer trade since my first buy for this trade was 2 years ago, and my average entry was 51cps, so your %IRR will be looking much better!

[Lizard]

Bit of keen buying pushing it up 9.4% to 93cps today - not huge volume though.

Suspect we will see more rise as the first patient gets dosed and perhaps for another 2-3 months in anticipation of positive results. After that, further gains are speculative, so will likely rely on TA to trade (and perhaps some cautious profit-taking).

[Joshuatree]

Good stuff. I bailed right out ,building cash ,unfort. Timing is everything as Charlie Chaplin would say :)

[Lizard]

Looks like overseas buying on the OTC markets had brokers tripping themselves up at the open today and raced through from yesterdays 99cps close to $1.15!

Should expect it to settle back, but definitely some competition for stock with the US interest in BNIKF spilling over.

[Joshuatree]

Tootsuite:t_up:

[Lizard]

Okay, so my crystal ball is broken... it didn't pull back and jumped to $1.26 on the close...

[Lizard]

Cap raising to US institutions at $1.07 to raise $31.5m plus 5 year options at $1.26 conversion... doesn't seem to have scared the market, as price now $1.53. Combined with 10m $1 options due for exercise in April, there should be plenty of cash to put some oomph under the pipeline.

Will become "piggyback qualified" on the US OTC market on the 28 Feb also, so much easier for US investors to trade and tap into the current enthusiasm for RNAi therapeutics. Will be interesting to see where it sits next week once new shares become tradable.

[Lizard]

Picture time... surprising close of $1.85, despite the cap raising. :cool:

5541

[Lizard]

Okay, 15mins into opening, we now have $2.33... I have never before got motion sickness from holding a share! :blink:

[baller18]

This stock is crazy, yesterday reached a lot of $1.30 then bounced like crazyyyyyyyy

[Lizard]

After that crazy ride, BLT nearly dropped back to my average buy at 53.5cps... still holding. Anyway, up today on the appointment of a manufacturing manager and the comment that the HCV trial is going well, so hit 93cps. Hoping it can press on and we eventually reach (and pass) the $2.33 highs in a more controlled fashion.