ALF - Allied Farmers Limited [Archive] - Page 5

Vaygor1

09-09-2017, 05:55 PM

No,but to go back to ALF's announcement of 30th August,to get any money, the next litigation against the directors must be successful.That trial is expected to commence Ferbuary 2018.Then the fun starts, if that is successful.
"The final quantum that Allied may be entitled to is potentially substantially greater amount than $500,000."
I would expect the fact the auditors paid up,means that the directors will too.Maybe they,[or their insurers] too, will decide not to go to court?

Hi Percy.

I interpreted the 30th August announcement differently.

My interpretation of the announcement is that the initial partial settlement, no matter how big or small it is, either in magnitude (in it's own right) or weighting compared to the Directors' potential payout, casts no further light on the Liquidators final position. The announcement then paints a kind of (in my view) extreme scenario to help explain why.

It may well be that getting nothing out of the Directors will still provide copius quantities of fruit so long as the Liqidators dont blow screeds of money between now and when the final outcome with the Directors' case is determined.

I think a settlement prior to court is likely. The announcement stated the outcome would not likely be determined in this calender year, so agreement in Jan or early Feb next year remains a real possibility.

percy

09-09-2017, 06:06 PM

Hi Percy.

I interpreted the 30th August announcement differently.

My interpretation of the announcement is that the initial partial settlement, no matter how big or small it is, either in magnitude (in it's own right) or weighting compared to the Directors' potential payout, casts no further light on the Liquidators final position. The announcement then paints a kind of (in my view) extreme scenario to help explain why.

It may well be that getting nothing out of the Directors will still provide copius quantities of fruit so long as the Liqidators dont blow screeds of money between now and when the final outcome with the Directors' case is determined.

I think a settlement prior to court is likely. The announcement stated the outcome would not likely be determined in this calender year, so agreement in Jan or early Feb next year remains a real possibility.

Agreed...............L

Vaygor1

11-09-2017, 10:54 PM

A Tip-Top result for sure. Any increase in NPBT of 52% can't be all bad.

I am a little disappointed (and a little surprised) that no dividend is forthcoming yet. However, in the vast majority of cases a resumption or commencement of dividend payments is normally signalled at the AGM which in ALF's case is due later this year.

Dividends do get a mention in the last bullet point of the Bond Extension announcement earlier today whereby the $1M bond is extended at reduced interest rates from 30-Sept-2017 until 30-Sept-2021. One of the conditions of the bond is:

"ALF shall not reduce its equity capital by way of share re-purchase or other means without bondholders approval, provided however that ALF may pay, in relation to each financial year of the term of the Bond, an interim and/or final dividend of up to 51% of the Net Profit After Tax for that interim and/or full year period."

So the bondholders (who I think are predominantly [exclusively?] board-members anyway) have a bit of control for the next 4 years over any dividend payment by limiting it to 51% of NPAT, unless they authorise otherwise.

This announcement is the 1st I have heard on any potential dividend constraint. If this was in force over the last 12 months (which it could have been I conject), this years NPAT result of $1.554 million limits ALF's max dividend payout (without requiring bondholders approval) to $787k. A limit that would be exceeded if a 1/2 cent dividend was paid.... 161.5 million shares x $0.005 = $807k.

Further to the attached post, I have given the matter of a potential upcoming dividend some thought...

In most situations I know of, the signal to recommence a dividend is announced at the ASM, which in ALF's case is the end of November. The announcement referred to in the attached post is in itself practically a signal in my view.

As a result, I hold a reasonable expectation of a dividend this current financial year (which commenced 1-July) to be distributed using last financial years profit available through their free operating cashflow.... fingers crossed.

winner69

02-11-2017, 09:59 AM

Is this a hope it will be all OK for the full year type of announcement ......don’t expect miracles.

percy

02-11-2017, 10:20 AM

Is this a hope it will be all OK for the full year type of announcement ......don’t expect miracles.

I don't think many rural sector investors expect miracles.

Vaygor1

07-11-2017, 10:57 AM

Is this a hope it will be all OK for the full year type of announcement ......don’t expect miracles.

Hi Winner.

I don't believe their will be any issues surrounding ALF's full year announcement which is about 10 months away.

At the ASM held in late November last year, the board revealed they had internally held robust discussions about whether or not to pay a modest dividend following the result of their Financial Year Ending 30-June-2016. The reason they gave back then for not paying was some small legacy debt to a couple of creditors they felt should be taken care of first... that it could be a little embarrassing for ALF if/when these creditors become aware of a dividend being paid while still being owed some money by ALF.

So I think the expectation for ALF to pay a dividend following the result for Year Ending 30-June-2017 was reasonable, and I also believe they were/are in a position to do so.
But at the same time, and with this wonderful thing called hindsight, I also think it prudent for ALF to pay dividends in any given year using the free cashflow available from their previous financial year.

I good deal of my ALF purchases are now 3-4 baggers, so I am a very happy holder. I think though, it will be a dividend payout (however small) that will make headlines and re-rate the SP.

Vaygor1

07-11-2017, 11:35 AM

.... I think though, it will be a dividend payout (however small) that will make headlines and re-rate the SP.

Another SP re-rating of course could well be the result of the litigation ongoing between the LPF group and PwC. If successful, ALF is likely to benefit. I think, if successful, ALF's equity will double at least. While there is no guarantee of LPF coming out on top once all the chips are down, their track record is pretty impressive.

In the latest NBR Oct-17 there is an article on the LPF Group which I think makes very interesting reading....

"Since it was established in 2009 LPF has backed 20 legal actions. Of the 14 completed so far, LPF says it has obtained a successful outcome in all of them - a 100% clean sweep."

forest

07-11-2017, 01:14 PM

"Since it was established in 2009 LPF has backed 20 legal actions. Of the 14 completed so far, LPF says it has obtained a successful outcome in all of them - a 100% clean sweep."

That is very encouraging for the share holders of ALF.

Out to lunch

07-11-2017, 04:46 PM

To be clear, ALF get paid out on the PwC claim (settled Aug 17) and/or the Directors claim (Feb18 trial). So as percy said you'd hope the PwC money won won't get fully spent on a failed Directors claim.
Looks like Vero was behind PwC's insurance, I wonder who is behind the Directors indemnity insurance.

Also on the opco, interesting read from PGW's 31/8 announcement around the sector, sheep numbers down but strong dairy confidence. No comment on beef. Also I wonder the impact of Mycoplasma Bovis on farmer confidence in buying dairy or even beef herds. Dairy farmers would be rightfully overly-cautious buying stock that were close to the affected farm. Definition of "close to the affected farm" would be different for each farmer: Chch farmers would avoid South Canterbury/Oamaru stock, SI west coast farmers would avoid the SI east coast stock, and north island farmers would avoid south island stock.

Out to lunch

08-11-2017, 08:40 AM

Tim Hunter has put an article out this morning detailing the insurance or lack thereof behind the PVL directors.

Fatboyj

08-11-2017, 09:16 AM

Any snipits you can post from the article? Is Hendo's name mentioned anywhere?

Out to lunch

08-11-2017, 11:31 AM

Any snipits you can post from the article? Is Hendo's name mentioned anywhere?

Article is on NBR online. Hendo is not a defendant in the ruling.

I like doing the valuation on this company, you've got a relatively negative outlook while there is also a positive lump sum contingent asset. Its like the opposite of FPH.

Lola

08-11-2017, 12:34 PM

Article is on NBR online. Hendo is not a defendant in the ruling.

I like doing the valuation on this company, you've got a relatively negative outlook while there is also a positive lump sum contingent asset. Its like the opposite of FPH.

Got a guess or any insight as to what this windfall might mean for ALF? PWC settlement wouldnt have been chicken feed to start with.

Out to lunch

08-11-2017, 02:37 PM

Got a guess or any insight as to what this windfall might mean for ALF? PWC settlement wouldnt have been chicken feed to start with.

The unknown factors are:
1) ALF's percentage cut of net proceeds under the Deed of Assignment
2) PwC settlement sum
3) Directors settlement or claim under the courts
4) LPF's costs- they're probably incentivised to not have max net proceeds, try and falsely increase the costs (google Hollywood Accounting).

So to calculate ALF benefit: 1 * ((2+3)-4)
My val has this at: 10% * ((20m+0m)-5m) = $1.5m, and no tax impact.

Let me know if I am missing something or my assumptions seem wildly out - at least its a base for sensitising return.

Lola

08-11-2017, 03:15 PM

The unknown factors are:
1) ALF's percentage cut of net proceeds under the Deed of Assignment
2) PwC settlement sum
3) Directors settlement or claim under the courts
4) LPF's costs- they're probably incentivised to not have max net proceeds, try and falsely increase the costs (google Hollywood Accounting).

So to calculate ALF benefit: 1 * ((2+3)-4)
My val has this at: 10% * ((20m+0m)-5m) = $1.5m, and no tax impact.

Let me know if I am missing something or my assumptions seem wildly out - at least its a base for sensitising return.

We know 1. is 5 % publicly available info.
2. we dont know but the claim is for $302 million plus interest.
3. we dont know but PWC settled . Remember they had already lost in three courts so obviously didnt want to roll that dice again. Could be 20 to 50 million.
3. Agree

So my guess based on above plus ALFs own statement a while back that indicated they expected "substantially "more than what they had received to date for selling the loans in the first place which was $100,000

So range of 1m to 2.5 m

Vaygor1

08-11-2017, 05:25 PM

So to calculate ALF benefit: 1 * ((2+3)-4)
My val has this at: 10% * ((20m+0m)-5m) = $1.5m, and no tax impact.

Let me know if I am missing something or my assumptions seem wildly out - at least its a base for sensitising return.

Further to Lola's response, bear in mind that there are 2 'tranches' to ALF receiving money from this litigation process. They are outlined in my ST post here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3044-Allied-Farmers-Limited-ALF&p=663892&viewfull=1#post663892

I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum.

The example used before the courts (and is public information) by PWC's lawyers is as follows. The 3rd column is my notes and represents my current understanding which could be flawed.

Claim (Resolution Sum)

$334,000,000

This number subject to interest rate penalty and for this table assumes it to be 0.00%

Less Project Costs (say)
$3,000,000

Net Resolution Sum
$331,000,000

SPF Services Fee 42.5% of
the Net Resolution Sum
$140,675,000

Less Liquidation costs (say)

$2,000,000

The Net Amount – Available to
PVL Creditors
$188,325,000

ALF get 5% of this amount for the 1st tranch (the Assignment Fee). Under this example it represents $9.42 million

Distribution of Net Amount

To SPF as 1st Secured Creditor
$188,115,226

Other Creditors
$209,774

The last real variable for tranch 1 is the interest rate. I have looked at cases in the past regarding this type of litigation and do not think 8%/annum compounding is unreasonable at all. Ignoring the table above for now (which except for column 3 was put together by PWC's lawyers), the original amount filed against PWC in 2013 was $302 million.

So 8% compounding on $302 million from 2013 equals $445 million in 2018
Using the remainder of the table above, this hypothetical scenario brings ALF's tranch 1 from $9.42 million to $12.6 million (unless I have slipped a decimal point somewhere).

percy

28-11-2017, 08:43 AM

Vaygor1.
Spot on...Divie.....!!!!!

blackcap

28-11-2017, 08:44 AM

Vaygor1.
Spot on...Divie.....!!!!!

not much... but imputed and a start :)

Leftfield

28-11-2017, 09:22 AM

Yee ha! well done holders. Only 1% of my portfolio but nice to have this divi plus further positives to come for patient holders.

Vaygor1

28-11-2017, 09:59 AM

Thanks Percy, Blackcap, and Left Field.

Positive news indeed !! :)

The announcement indicates to me the H1 forecast for this financial year is healthy enough to warrant this payment without too much risk of reducing their free cash-flow.

Will be interesting to watch the SP over the next week or three.

Vaygor1

03-12-2017, 02:57 AM

Further to my post about 4 weeks ago (here.... https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3044-Allied-Farmers-Limited-ALF&p=691896&viewfull=1#post691896 ) on the potential amount ALF might receive as the Assignment Fee via the LPF litigation process, I have since learned the penalty interest rate as per the loan contract in question is specified as 1.5% per month with monthly rests (i.e. compounding monthly).

My example from 4 weeks ago used 8% per annum as the penalty interest rate but 1.5% compounding monthly equals 19.56% per annum.

Using the 19.56% per annum penalty interest, I calculate a potential award of of $302 million in 2013 equates to $737 million in 2018. If this is the amount awarded, and running it through the table as per my post from 4 weeks ago, ALF would receive $21 million as their 5% Assignment Fee.

percy

03-12-2017, 07:50 AM

Vaygor1

03-12-2017, 12:53 PM

Receiving $21mil when ALF's current market capitalisation is $14 mil would be interesting.!
The trial is due to commence in February 2018,which is not far away.
Should there be an out of court settlement, we may know in February exactly amount ALF will receive.

Yes indeed Percy. :)
Also of interest is the impact on the share price of a $12 million or $21 million one-off injection into a company whose reported equity is currently $2 million.

While on the subject, I believe ALF's real equity is over $10 million due to the off-balance-sheet items that are omitted in compliance with IFRS rules.

percy

03-12-2017, 04:12 PM

Yes indeed Percy. :)
Also of interest is the impact on the share price of a $12 million or $21 million one-off injection into a company whose reported equity is currently $2 million.

While on the subject, I believe ALF's real equity is over $10 million due to the off-balance-sheet items that are omitted in compliance with IFRS rules.

Agree with your real equity figure of over $10 mil.
So with either $12 mil or $21 mil settlement we end up with between $22 and $31 mil.That equals a lot of fun to me..!

golden city

13-12-2017, 08:28 AM

Crossed over 10c again. Looking good.

Lola

13-12-2017, 02:38 PM

Crossed over 10c again. Looking good.
+ Another 6 % so far today
Maybe the lawyers want to settle this stuff before they take their six weeks breaks?

golden city

13-12-2017, 02:47 PM

We might have a windfall for christmas

Lola

05-01-2018, 08:54 PM

We might have a windfall for christmas
Hey what’s going on?
Price up to five plus high on reasonable turnover
Will the court case proceed next month?
This is a firecracker

golden city

06-01-2018, 06:11 PM

Waiting for early settlement

Lola

09-01-2018, 03:18 PM

[QUOTE=golden city;698941]Waiting for early settlement[/QUOTE

News out it’s settled but months before details known
That’s a bit rich
If it’s settled what more would have to be done only to keep the clock ticking?

Leftfield

09-01-2018, 04:24 PM

News out it’s settled but months before details known...That’s a bit rich
If it’s settled what more would have to be done only to keep the clock ticking?

Fact or Fiction? Surely any 'settlement' would need to be announced via NZX?

Fatboyj

09-01-2018, 10:45 PM

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/100427715/henderson-companies-liquidator-settles-with-directors

golden city

09-01-2018, 10:54 PM

Nice ending

golden city

09-01-2018, 10:54 PM

Now waiting for jackpot

kiora

10-01-2018, 04:56 AM

Maybe to small to announce?

golden city

10-01-2018, 06:58 AM

As it indicated from last announcement. It is substantial than 500k

dodgy

10-01-2018, 08:32 AM

As it indicated from last announcement. It is substantial than 500k

Where exactly is this link with the over 500000 GC - I can only read that industry commentators are suggesting minor in nature? Remember ALF only get a small percentage of total settlement - 5%?
Regards
-dodgy

blackcap

10-01-2018, 08:46 AM

Where exactly is this link with the over 500000 GC - I can only read that industry commentators are suggesting minor in nature? Remember ALF only get a small percentage of total settlement - 5%?
Regards
-dodgy

5% of a $100,000,000 is still $5,000,000. That would be a game changer for ALF. Not sure it will be $100m but just saying the potential is big.

peat

10-01-2018, 09:06 AM

" the Liquidators are not aware of a final settlement having been formally reached."

informally though? ;)

dodgy

10-01-2018, 09:44 AM

5% of a $100,000,000 is still $5,000,000. That would be a game changer for ALF. Not sure it will be $100m but just saying the potential is big.

Hi
I think 10% may be realistic - we shall see (at the AGM the Chairman was very quick to dispel any rash thinking about this - read into that what you may)
Regards
-dodgy

Leftfield

10-01-2018, 10:57 AM

Speculation is just speculation.....

Best not to get too excited until a formal announcement is made IMHO.

"Allied has become aware of a media article on 9 January 2018 stating that the

Liquidators have settled with the Directors. However, the Liquidators have

advised Allied that the media article is premature and that the Liquidators

are not aware of a final settlement having been formally reached."

golden city

10-01-2018, 01:44 PM

If you wait until the formal news. The share price will be formal value too I guessed

dodgy

10-01-2018, 06:00 PM

5% of a $100,000,000 is still $5,000,000. That would be a game changer for ALF. Not sure it will be $100m but just saying the potential is big.

Hi Blackcap
I messed up my typing on my post # 1049 .... I meant to write max recovery closer to $10 mill.
Sorry about that.
-dodgy

blackcap

11-01-2018, 07:47 AM

Hi Blackcap
I messed up my typing on my post # 1049 .... I meant to write max recovery closer to $10 mill.
Sorry about that.
-dodgy

No worries, I'm not sure what the outcome will be either, but anything more than $1m and I will be happy.

Vaygor1

11-01-2018, 08:51 AM

The article that was prematurely published appears to be very definitive and specific on certain matters.... must be some factual basis behind it imho.

Lola

11-01-2018, 09:28 AM

golden city

11-01-2018, 09:56 AM

I don’t think the newspaper will public so details without any information or knowledge

golden city

11-01-2018, 09:56 AM

Just matter of clock ticking

Leftfield

11-01-2018, 11:22 AM

Yes patience is needed.

Meanwhile the NBR have published a story that explains the situation (https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/allied-farmers-says-no-deal-yet-property-ventures-directors-b-211633) quite well.

“The company (ALF) took on the loans (of Dave Henderson’s Property Ventures Ltd.) in its ill fated 2009 acquisition of the Hanover and United finance group’s loan book that wasn’t worth as much as initially thought. It sold them for $100k and at the time said it could rise to $500k, but (ALF) has since said if the litigation is successful it could be in for a larger return.”

Vaygor1

12-01-2018, 02:07 AM

The article that was prematurely published appears to be very definitive and specific on certain matters.... must be some factual basis behind it imho.
When did newpapers get everything right? Better to take a line from the market which remains quite firm.

Newspapers and the mainstream media in general these days are seldom right. These days, they seem to be all about over-hype, ratings and their own opinions rather than reporting the news.

However, for example, in this case I doubt the author of the article (link here (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/100427715/henderson-companies-liquidator-settles-with-directors)) when stating - "That's the calculation you have to make," Walker said. - pulled the quote out of thin air.

Yet I do think the article is flawed in many respects. In particular where it states - Walker had sought information about the financial position of the directors and therefore any likely recovery from a court case. - I think this statement is a total red herring. The Directors will each have there own PI and PL insurance cover and their personal financial position is of no consequence to Robert Walker.

Also, take the following statement - Neither Walker nor the ex-directors would reveal the size of the latest settlement, although other players on the business scene described it as likely to be minimal. - This is meaningless conjecture... and who are these 'other players' on the 'business scene'? No credibility to the author there in my view.

percy

19-01-2018, 04:20 PM

My divie is in my bank.

golden city

20-01-2018, 01:06 PM

Feeling good

golden city

08-02-2018, 06:40 PM

Half year result should be due soon

dodgy

09-02-2018, 02:29 PM

Half year result should be due soon

Hi GC
Dont hold your breath. Will be less than prior IMHO.
Still a long term hold with excellent stewardship.
Regards
-dodgy

golden city

09-02-2018, 03:21 PM

I Loved this stock this year. Buying what ever I Can

dodgy

20-02-2018, 03:25 PM

I Loved this stock this year. Buying what ever I Can

Hi GC
Any update on the money recovery situation ? Maybe with the 1/2 year ?
regards
-dodgy

bull....

21-02-2018, 07:00 AM

Hi GC
Any update on the money recovery situation ? Maybe with the 1/2 year ?
regards
-dodgy

hopefully we get an update , ive been holding this for quite a while.

golden city

21-02-2018, 11:08 PM

Still patiently waiting haha

Lola

26-02-2018, 05:52 PM

Still patiently waiting haha

Nice jump on bit of volume today. The Court fixture was slated for February but to date no sign of it, nor word of a re scheduling. Only thing has been the announcement a few weeks ago by the Defendants that it was settled, but that seemed to be a Claytons or someones imagination. Tension mounts.

percy

26-02-2018, 07:15 PM

The excitement builds.?
Details of the settlements, and ALF share of them, should not be too far away.
Not a lot on the sell side.

golden city

26-02-2018, 10:02 PM

A few more days for the big moment maybe haha

Vaygor1

27-02-2018, 11:16 PM

Nice jump on bit of volume today. The Court fixture was slated for February but to date no sign of it, nor word of a re scheduling. Only thing has been the announcement a few weeks ago by the Defendants that it was settled, but that seemed to be a Claytons or someones imagination. Tension mounts.

Yes indeed. All seems quiet on this front. So quiet in fact I did a bit of internet hunting to see if I could find anything.

Found this very interesting article from November last year in the NBR. The readers-comments section is as interesting as the story but there appears to be a lot of support for the LPF Group from some highly rated individuals within the legal sector.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/litigation-funder-lpf-lays-judicial-complaint-against-chief-justice-b-209920

I'll be the 1st to admit I struggle to understand what this all means. However, it appears at this stage that it is more to do with the case bought against PWC itself, and not the case against the Directors... but even on this I am unsure.

I would very much like to have a number of questions answered concerning the issues this article raises... if I could find the right person to ask them to.

I have also tried to find a schedule of February 2018 court hearings that includes PWC but no luck so far.

dodgy

28-02-2018, 06:39 AM

Yes indeed. All seems quiet on this front. So quiet in fact I did a bit of internet hunting to see if I could find anything.

Found this very interesting article from November last year in the NBR. The readers-comments section is as interesting as the story but there appears to be a lot of support for the LPF Group from some highly rated individuals within the legal sector.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/litigation-funder-lpf-lays-judicial-complaint-against-chief-justice-b-209920

I'll be the 1st to admit I struggle to understand what this all means. However, it appears at this stage that it is more to do with the case bought against PWC itself, and not the case against the Directors... but even on this I am unsure.

I would very much like to have a number of questions answered concerning the issues this article raises... if I could find the right person to ask them to.

I have also tried to find a schedule of February 2018 court hearings that includes PWC but no luck so far.

Good morning V,
If you are a bona fide shareholder you would best ring the very approachable chairman Gary Bluett? d quote your csn and ask whatever you wish. Best from the horses mouth so as to speak. He won't be able to tell you any more than in the public domain but may enlighten you.
Regards

-dodgy

percy

28-02-2018, 07:38 AM

golden city

28-02-2018, 07:50 AM

That is what I thought too. Because. Last news said it is pre mature Maybe just the sign off left. All agreed by negotiation

blackcap

08-03-2018, 03:22 PM

This dude any good?

ALF
08/03/2018 15:12
ADMIN
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1512 HRS Allied Farmers Limited

ADMIN: ALF: CFO Appointment

8 March 2018
CFO APPOINTMENT

The Directors of Allied Farmers Ltd (ALF) are pleased to announce the
appointment of Mr Brian Lee as Chief Financial Officer of the Allied Farmers
Group with effect from 3 April 2018.

Mr Lee joins ALF from NZX listed Smiths City Group where he has been CFO for
the previous 13 years.

ALF Chairman Garry Bluett said "We are delighted to have Brian join our team.
We are confident that his experience and expertise will help sustain and
drive the growth we are experiencing in our business".

Garry Bluett

Chairman
End CA:00315286 For:ALF Type:ADMIN Time:2018-03-08 15:12:11

minimoke

08-03-2018, 03:29 PM

This dude any good?

Leaving a sinking ship?

percy

08-03-2018, 03:29 PM

I don't know,however he should have finance company experience ,as Smiths City have a very large finance company.

percy

08-03-2018, 03:31 PM

Leaving a sinking ship?

They have kept it afloat by selling off their Colombo store, and leasing it back from John Butterfield,who also owns South City Shopping Centre.

Lola

09-03-2018, 09:29 PM

They have kept it afloat by selling off their Colombo store, and leasing it back from John Butterfield,who also owns South City Shopping Centre.

What’s this got to do with ALF?

percy

09-03-2018, 09:34 PM

What’s this got to do with ALF?

Was in reply to post #1076

golden city

10-03-2018, 01:19 PM

Still no update yet

blackcap

23-03-2018, 09:42 AM

Bit of a damp squib?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ALF/315954/276727.pdf

minimoke

23-03-2018, 09:48 AM

Hi Blackcap
I messed up my typing on my post # 1049 .... I meant to write max recovery closer to $10 mill.
Sorry about that.
-dodgyAnd actual recovery is $541,000

dodgy

23-03-2018, 09:51 AM

Bit of a damp squib?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ALF/315954/276727.pdf

Morning blackcap,
As expected and about what was indicated at the AGM. Business as usual which appears about par (very Obama - ish) considering the seasonality and weather.
Regards
-dodgy

golden city

23-03-2018, 10:15 AM

We were right about the timming but not the figures

blackcap

23-03-2018, 01:51 PM

Guess the market was hoping for a larger amount....

Beagle

23-03-2018, 02:02 PM

Guess the market was hoping for a larger amount....

Equal to just on 3 cps, probably less than that by the time management take their bonus's out of it. I reckon people shouldn't kid themselves that management won't want some reward for their "efforts" Trading outlook recently was pretty glum too. Frankly I don't see what some people were so excited about...but each to their own and if this floats your boat all the best with it.

blackcap

23-03-2018, 02:11 PM

Equal to just on 3 cps, probably less than that by the time management take their bonus's out of it. I reckon people shouldn't kid themselves that management won't want some reward for their "efforts" Trading outlook recently was pretty glum too. Frankly I don't see what some people were so excited about...but each to their own and if this floats your boat all the best with it.

I think you got your math wrong. Its .3 cents per share. So no bonus for mgmt and nothing of substance for shareholders.

Beagle

23-03-2018, 02:19 PM

I think you got your math wrong. Its .3 cents per share. So no bonus for mgmt and nothing of substance for shareholders.

Opps yes quite right...even more pathetic then. So the lawyers probably billing at over $1,000 per hour got the lion's share of the feed then. No surprise to this hound.

golden city

23-03-2018, 05:22 PM

Still not as expected figure. But still a second division win. Better than nothing. It will help the company financially I am sure

bull....

23-03-2018, 05:29 PM

Still not as expected figure. But still a second division win. Better than nothing. It will help the company financially I am sure

yup its money they didnt have before

Beagle

23-03-2018, 06:14 PM

5% of a $100,000,000 is still $5,000,000. That would be a game changer for ALF. Not sure it will be $100m but just saying the potential is big.

Further to Lola's response, bear in mind that there are 2 'tranches' to ALF receiving money from this litigation process. They are outlined in my ST post here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3044-Allied-Farmers-Limited-ALF&p=663892&viewfull=1#post663892

I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum.

The example used before the courts (and is public information) by PWC's lawyers is as follows. The 3rd column is my notes and represents my current understanding which could be flawed.

Claim (Resolution Sum)

$334,000,000

This number subject to interest rate penalty and for this table assumes it to be 0.00%

Less Project Costs (say)
$3,000,000

Net Resolution Sum
$331,000,000

SPF Services Fee 42.5% of
the Net Resolution Sum
$140,675,000

Less Liquidation costs (say)

$2,000,000

The Net Amount – Available to
PVL Creditors
$188,325,000

ALF get 5% of this amount for the 1st tranch (the Assignment Fee). Under this example it represents $9.42 million

Distribution of Net Amount

To SPF as 1st Secured Creditor
$188,115,226

Other Creditors
$209,774

The last real variable for tranch 1 is the interest rate. I have looked at cases in the past regarding this type of litigation and do not think 8%/annum compounding is unreasonable at all. Ignoring the table above for now (which except for column 3 was put together by PWC's lawyers), the original amount filed against PWC in 2013 was $302 million.

So 8% compounding on $302 million from 2013 equals $445 million in 2018
Using the remainder of the table above, this hypothetical scenario brings ALF's tranch 1 from $9.42 million to $12.6 million (unless I have slipped a decimal point somewhere).

Receiving $21mil when ALF's current market capitalisation is $14 mil would be interesting.!
The trial is due to commence in February 2018,which is not far away.
Should there be an out of court settlement, we may know in February exactly amount ALF will receive.

A selection of posts over recent months. Reality bites pretty hard I think. The suspect the lawyers probably had the clock ticking at well over $1,000 an hour for many, many thousands of hours and they're the real winners and shareholders get nothing but crumbs.

To add insult to injury ALF cautioned about the second half prospects at the time of their half year announcement.

Back to 5 cents ?

percy

23-03-2018, 06:51 PM

Been a fun ride.!
Brought a nice holding, then sold half,and left with the balance owing me 3.7cps.
Not a "free" ride [yet].!!.
Also collected the modest divie.

Beagle

23-03-2018, 08:38 PM

Been a fun ride.!
Brought a nice holding, then sold half,and left with the balance owing me 3.7cps.
Not a "free" ride [yet].!!.
Also collected the modest divie.

Good for you, when buying flea ridden penny dreadful mutts its best to sell half when they show the first sign of life....long before they have to run in the first greyhound trial. Wonder how anyone who's dug themselves into a very deep position on this one is feeling though...
I learned long ago in the GFC that once the litigation or insolvency experts get involved at about $10,000 a day per person there's very little if anything left over for shareholders.

percy

23-03-2018, 09:37 PM

Good for you, when buying flea ridden penny dreadful mutts its best to sell half when they show the first sign of life....long before they have to run in the first greyhound trial. Wonder how anyone who's dug themselves into a very deep position on this one is feeling though...
I learned long ago in the GFC that once the litigation or insolvency experts get involved at about $10,000 a day per person there's very little if anything left over for shareholders.

Yes the litigation was always "pie in the sky" for ALF shareholders.
That was not what attracted me,or the reasons I am happy to hold.
Online, finance and basic business has plenty of upside,from the more solid foundations, the focussed directors/management have laid.
From what I hear ALF are very customer driven now days.Nimble footed.
No fleas left.

golden city

23-03-2018, 09:41 PM

I am focus more on recovery on solid ground too. Nz has more cow sheep than people. It is a good business to grow

Hectorplains

23-03-2018, 10:10 PM

I am focus more on recovery on solid ground too. Nz has more cow sheep than people. It is a good business to grow

Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!

Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....

Beagle

23-03-2018, 10:31 PM

Good grief... you might want to dig a little deeper on the analysis!

Calling it straight - this looked like a blind bet that has returned less than the loudly mooted odds.. now everyone's claiming they had a trading strategy or were in on the fundamentals . Ummm, ok....

Agree 100% although I would call it straighter and say its a pittance compared to the very loudly mooted odds...this extract from the half year report on 21 February 2018 gives an insight to the full year prospects

For the second six months of the year dairy herd sales contribute a
significant proportion of the annual profit. Many of these dairy herd sales
are contracted well in advance of settlement. Although it is still early in
the season, to date the forward sales herd contracts due for settlement
predominantly in May are tracking behind the same time last year and it may
be that the high volume of dairy herd sales that the company experienced in
the second half last year may not be repeated which would have a material
negative impact on the full year result.
Emphasis added.

They might match last year if shareholders are fortunate after accounting for the net litigation proceeds.
People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good. I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.

dodgy

24-03-2018, 12:35 PM

Agree 100% although I would call it straighter and say its a pittance compared to the very loudly mooted odds...this extract from the half year report on 21 February 2018 gives an insight to the full year prospects
Emphasis added.

They might match last year if shareholders are fortunate after accounting for the net litigation proceeds.
People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good. I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.

Hi Beagle
Having attended last years AGM I came away understanding that progress may be lumpy at best but that the management and Directors are fully focused, sucecss driven with good conservative attitudes whilst also realising the future digital world potential. Yes this is cyclic but livestock trade in good and bad economies and consequently not to everyones taste. But, cast your mind back only a few years and facing extinction - these guys avoided that admirably with this written off recovery a welcome $500k bonus. Patience investing with perserverance of management. I hold .
Regards
-dodgy.

golden city

24-03-2018, 02:02 PM

Totally agreed

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 04:12 AM

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 04:56 AM

.... People took a punt and drove this agri services minnow that operates in a cyclical sector up from 5 cents to over double that at one point .....

The first news on these court proceedings was ALF's market release on 5-April-2017. I can't see where you get your 5c datum from. For the 4 months preceding this announcement ALF's share price was pretty consistent at 7c per share.

.... and now they're trying to tell us and kid themselves at the same time the fundamental's are good....

As with Hector, If you have concerns about ALF's fundamentals then I am interested in where your concerns lie. The balance sheet, cashflows, equity, and P&L all look good to me. If sellers wish to sell for 8c (with sufficient volume) then I'm buying.

.... I suggest nobody can reliably make a call on FY19's earnings, even FY18 is in doubt.

I suggest the vast majority of NZX listed companies are difficult to make a reliable call on in two years from now, otherwise we would all be filthy rich. :)

percy

31-03-2018, 07:58 AM

Vaygor1.
Thank you for your sensible,knowledgeable post.
Your clarity of thought posts,together with sound research, makes for successful ALF investing.

Hectorplains

31-03-2018, 10:09 AM

Beagle

31-03-2018, 10:35 AM

The first news on these court proceedings was ALF's market release on 5-April-2017. I can't see where you get your 5c datum from. For the 4 months preceding this announcement ALF's share price was pretty consistent at 7c per share.

As with Hector, If you have concerns about ALF's fundamentals then I am interested in where your concerns lie. The balance sheet, cashflows, equity, and P&L all look good to me. If sellers wish to sell for 8c (with sufficient volume) then I'm buying.

I suggest the vast majority of NZX listed companies are difficult to make a reliable call on in two years from now, otherwise we would all be filthy rich. :)

SUM are easier than others mate.
Come on, lets get real...you've been hoping for and talking about this settlement being a real game changer...pretty sure you were talking about 10 cps or even more.
Definition of a good long term hold is s short term trade gone badly wrong...

Beagle

31-03-2018, 10:40 AM

I hold a lot of ALF shares Hector. I held over 95% of them before I ever knew anything about this court case. I can't speak for others here but I bought and continue to hold on fundamentals. Any potential income attributable to these legal proceedings was an unexpected bonus with zero downside attached.

As such, I am pleased with the additional capital injection, the quantum of which was completely out of ALF's hands.

If you believe ALF's fundamentals are in question, I am interested in where your concerns lie.

That does not fit with you talking up the litigation proceeds on here and at the pub at the Auckland meeting. It's time to admit you got this wrong and should have known the legal team would have basically eaten the entire pie and left some crumbs on the floor for shareholders. Anyway you have to keep saying its good and keep holding as I think we can agree on one thing, it would be incredibly hard for you to sell your sized stake.
Concerns, see half year announcement #1098
Anyway...personally I find you a likeable rogue so I'll leave my critique at that but please feel free to launch the takeover by yourself :p

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 10:59 AM

I don't see much in the half year results that are exciting? Profit, basically, halved on previous year and "a material negative impact on the full year result" warning from falling dairy herd sales. Smells like further disappointment ahead.

ALF's FY Surplus (Deficit) before Tax over the last five years is as follows:

Year
Net Surplus (Deficit) Before Tax
NZ$ (000)

2013
(2,670)

2014
1,161

2015
1,115

2016
1,574

2017
2,387

For the second six months of ALF's financial year, dairy herd sales contribute a significant proportion of the annual profit.

ALF's H1 result this financial year plus the after tax income from this litigation exceeds the previous H1 result.

ALF's guidance announcements are highly conservative in the last many years (just the way I like them).

If ALF's 2018 Annual Result re the above table exceed NZ$2 million I'll be very happy.

There is much more to tell, however I suggest you read and absorb the financial statements yourself rather than smell them.

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 12:12 PM

That does not fit with you talking up the litigation proceeds on here and at the pub at the Auckland meeting. It's time to admit you got this wrong and should have known the legal team would have basically eaten the entire pie and left some crumbs on the floor for shareholders. Anyway you have to keep saying its good and keep holding as I think we can agree on one thing, it would be incredibly hard for you to sell your sized stake.
Concerns, see half year announcement #1098
Anyway...personally I find you a likeable rogue so I'll leave my critique at that but please feel free to launch the takeover by yourself :p

Always enjoy your posts Beagle.

I believe I have never made an effort to 'talk it up'. The facts show the potential (as presented by PWC's lawyers themselves) was certainly a lot higher than than the amount recovered, however there was always a chance the figure could be as low as $0.00 as many have stated.

Referring my post https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3044-Allied-Farmers-Limited-ALF&p=691896&viewfull=1#post691896 :
"I am trying to keep $0.00 in my emotional bank regarding both tranches, certainly the 2nd tranch. For the 1st tranch though, underneath I do expect something, just don't know the quantum."

So what I expected has in fact transpired. It would have been nice if the figure was higher of course but circa 1/2 a million bonus is better than nothing last time I looked.

Refer my previous post regarding ALF fundamentals. They are in good shape and if you believe otherwise then I am genuinely interested in why. I'm talking proper fundamentals, not just how well they might be doing against last year and conjecture regarding ALF's conservative guidance.

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 12:52 PM

SUM are easier than others mate.
Come on, lets get real...you've been hoping for and talking about this settlement being a real game changer...pretty sure you were talking about 10 cps or even more.
Definition of a good long term hold is s short term trade gone badly wrong...

Gee Beagle. Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning?

I spoke about it being a potential game changer, which it was. As you know I have never been a short term trader, particularly in ALF unless accumulating these shares over a 7 year period falls within the bounds of short term.

9594

I obviously have a lot to learn in making a CG of a pitiful 400% over 5 years. More if you go back 7. You think SUM (which I hold) will manage that?

I have no intention of selling.

percy

31-03-2018, 01:05 PM

Maybe the full moon.?
Affects hounds..!..lol.

Beagle

31-03-2018, 01:56 PM

Gee Beagle. Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning?

I spoke about it being a potential game changer, which it was. As you know I have never been a short term trader, particularly in ALF unless accumulating these shares over a 7 year period falls within the bounds of short term.

9594

I obviously have a lot to learn in making a CG of a pitiful 400% over 5 years. More if you go back 7. You think SUM (which I hold) will manage that?

I have no intention of selling.
Just felt like yanking your chain mate, no hard feelings I hope. Agri services cyclical microcaps are not for me but good luck with it.
Just be careful, Pie funds thought they'd done really well with unrealized capital gains on Trilogy much of which evaporated when they tried to realize them.
PS Thanks for the advice to keep buying SUM even though the price didn't make any sense at around $5, much appreciated.
Wonder what happened to Couta1's RYM half price SUM relativity theory :D

dodgy

31-03-2018, 02:22 PM

Gee Beagle. Did you get out of the wrong side of bed this morning?

I spoke about it being a potential game changer, which it was. As you know I have never been a short term trader, particularly in ALF unless accumulating these shares over a 7 year period falls within the bounds of short term.

9594

I obviously have a lot to learn in making a CG of a pitiful 400% over 5 years. More if you go back 7. You think SUM (which I hold) will manage that?

I have no intention of selling.

Hi all,
Voygor1 is happy to hold and so am I. Hasn't been spectacular EXCEPT they are slowly clawing their way back from almost guaranteed Hanover extinction based on conservative common sense (sadly lacking in NZ listed companies),, whilst embracing the techno of the future in a commodity / weather driven environment. Good on them !! And it wouldn't hurt if a few shareholders contact management / directors with a bit of support or attend the AGM to hear the real oil - no pun to Labour/greens.
Have a Happy Easter.
-dodgy

Vaygor1

31-03-2018, 04:18 PM

Just felt like yanking your chain mate, no hard feelings I hope. Agri services cyclical microcaps are not for me but good luck with it.
Just be careful, Pie funds thought they'd done really well with unrealized capital gains on Trilogy much of which evaporated when they tried to realize them.
PS Thanks for the advice to keep buying SUM even though the price didn't make any sense at around $5, much appreciated.
Wonder what happened to Couta1's RYM half price SUM relativity theory :D

SUM still a good buy in my opinion. A possible CG of 400% in 5 years for them? Difficult to imagine but not out of the question with a bit of bull market assist.. I think RYM did it at one stage some time back. Couta's relativity theory under sustained pressure now !! :P

Happy Easter to all.

PS. I tentatively think another ALF divvy due before Christmas. :)

golden city

31-03-2018, 06:13 PM

I am happy to buy more at 8c. Which I have put order in and already accumulated a big lot

GRIFFIN

25-05-2018, 11:45 AM

Just wondering what impact Mycoplasma Bovis will have on this company as it is centered at their core business of stock trading and spreading wider by the week.

bull....

25-05-2018, 05:27 PM

Just wondering what impact Mycoplasma Bovis will have on this company as it is centered at their core business of stock trading and spreading wider by the week.

i wouldnt think much ( just guessing ) as they cull them and still send them to the supermarkets for you to buy. overseas they manage the issue and live with it.

Snoopy

26-05-2018, 09:01 AM

Just wondering what impact Mycoplasma Bovis will have on this company as it is centered at their core business of stock trading and spreading wider by the week.

The fortunes of Allied Farmers are tied to the trading of animals. Profits will decrease with a decrease in volume and a decrease in price.

Estimates I have heard to rid the country of Mycoplasma Bovis would suggest a cull amounting to 5-10% of the herd. With 11m Cows and Cattle about in NZ, that means 550,000 to 1,100,000 animals. So while the numbers culled already sound horrific, you would have to assume we are only just getting started. Not all farms quarantined will end up infected, but cattle movement will nevertheless be restricted. So you could find that 10-15% of all cows will not be allowed to be moved and therefore can't be sold through the likes of AWF.

Meat Works tend to offer a 'market price' for animals. They don't go through the cattle yards. Also with plenty of cows 'available' for slaughter, we might expect the price offered to go down. And that lower price will flow through to the sale yards where the cattle that can be sold are being sold.

So I would expect a significant effect on Allied Farmers in the short to medium term. How significant? If cows make up 50% of the profit from sale yards, prices are down by 15% and volumes are down by 15%, then gross cow sale revenue will be down...

0.85 x 0.85 = 0.72 i.e. a 28% reduction

But if cows are only 50% of the business, the net revenue reduction at Allied Farmers will be down about 14%. Profit should be down that much and maybe a bit more. That is how I see the situation unfolding.

SNOOPY

Lola

26-05-2018, 10:08 AM

[QUOTE=Snoopy;715936]The fortunes of Allied Farmers are tied to the trading of animals. Profits will decrease with a decrease in volume and a decrease in price.

Estimates I have heard to rid the country of Mycoplasma Bovis would suggest a cull amounting to 5-10% of the herd. With 11m Cows and Cattle about in NZ, that means 550,000 to 1,100,000 animals. So while the numbers culled already sound horrific, you would have to assume we are only just getting started. Not all farms quarantined will end up infected, but cattle movement will nevertheless be restricted. So you could find that 10-15% of all cows will not be allowed to be moved and therefore can't be sold through the likes of AWF.

Meat Works tend to offer a 'market price' for animals. They don't go through the cattle yards. Also with plenty of cows 'available' for slaughter, we might expect the price offered to go down. And that lower price will flow through to the sale yards where the cattle that can be sold are being sold.

So I would expect a significant effect on Allied Farmers in the short to medium term. How significant? If cows make up 50% of the profit from sale yards, prices are down by 15% and volumes are down by 15%, then gross cow sale revenue will be down...

0.85 x 0.85 = 0.72 i.e. a 28% reduction

But if cows are only 50% of the business, the net revenue reduction at Allied Farmers will be down about 14%. Profit should be down that much and maybe a bit more. That is how I see the situation unfolding.

Points noted, Snoopy, but the replacements will need to come from somewhere and likely to be more than in the past, so ALF probably well placed. Time will tell.

Snoopy

26-05-2018, 10:27 AM

Points noted, Snoopy, but the replacements will need to come from somewhere and likely to be more than in the past, so ALF probably well placed. Time will tell.

Yes I was going to add that longer term, the culled cows will have to be replaced. And that could mean more farmers competing for stock bidding up the price: Good for ALF. But I feel that is a bit akin to saying that the Christchurch earthquake has been 'good' for GDP growth. Strictly true, but it would have been better to have no disaster to start with.

SNOOPY

freddagg

26-05-2018, 11:13 AM

Yes I was going to add that longer term, the culled cows will have to be replaced. And that could mean more farmers competing for stock bidding up the price: Good for ALF. But I feel that is a bit akin to saying that the Christchurch earthquake has been 'good' for GDP growth. Strictly true, but it would have been better to have no disaster to start with.

SNOOPY

It will not be in the longer term, any cows culled will need to be replaced immediately. I am sure that the industry can cope with whatever cull is needed.
Options are to keep more heifers as replacements and cull fewer older cows. This will of course mean more shuffling of cows around the country, good for ALF but not so good for controlling disease spread.

bull....

26-05-2018, 12:05 PM

If mpi goes for the live with it option as in australia i would think as some mentioned healthy animals likely to carry a premium price in stock sales therefore good for alf in long run.

Snoopy

26-05-2018, 12:35 PM

If mpi goes for the live with it option as in australia i would think as some mentioned healthy animals likely to carry a premium price in stock sales therefore good for alf in long run.

You may wish to look at this to see how the West Islander's are coping

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/countrylife/audio/2018646511/living-with-mycoplasma-bovis

I heard an interview with Keith Woodford last week on the subject. He message was:

"make sure the cure isn't worse than the disease".

But listening to vet/farmer Jakob Malmo, living with MPB sounds really bad. He is saying ideally 'don't buy in cows at all'. What would that do the the Allied Farmers operation? Then he says if you really need to buy in cows, get the cows milk tested before you buy. That sounds like a real headache. Managing MPB sounds like a longer more drawn out version of culling. Cows still have to be culled with ongoing management. It is just that a 'similar number of animals cull' takes place over a longer time, and there are a lot more tests to do on the way.

Unhealthy animals won't be let anywhere near ALF saleyards.

SNOOPY

Snoopy

26-05-2018, 12:49 PM

It will not be in the longer term, any cows culled will need to be replaced immediately.

I am sure farmers will like their cows to be replaced immediately, but:

1/ Will there be enough calves bred locally quickly enough to replace the cows culled?
2/ Will the government payout for animals culled be enough to purchase the same number of new cows?

I am sure that the industry can cope with whatever cull is needed.

It could be a good opportunity to speed up the transition to A2 cows?

Options are to keep more heifers as replacements and cull fewer older cows. This will of course mean more shuffling of cows around the country, good for ALF but not so good for controlling disease spread.

And if shuffling cows around the country is made slower, or brought to a halt - by the paperwork war - the disease may be controlled. But it may turn out very badly for ALF?

SNOOPY

bull....

26-05-2018, 12:53 PM

freddagg

26-05-2018, 01:45 PM

Hi Snoopy

I would say yes to 1/ because the normal annual cull is about 1 million cows per year and most of them could be used for another year if necessary and the decision to manage the disease rather than eliminate it would happen long before the bovis cull got to a million.

2/. I am not sure but for a dairy farm to be successful it has to turn its grass in to milk and cows can be leased.

3/. Actually makes it more difficult to transition the national herd to A2 because the more traits you want to breed for the slower the genetic gain. ie a potential replacement heifer not only has to be A2 but also free of M bovis .

4/. Yes, in the long term it could be bad for ALFs business model as farmers may choose to "close their herd" and never introduce outside animals

freddagg

26-05-2018, 02:14 PM

hey snoopy couldnt alf just run yards for infected stock and yards for healthy stock?

No. Infected stock will always be killed. At the moment they are killing complete herds because they have identified some infected animals.

Vaygor1

27-05-2018, 10:26 AM

hey snoopy couldnt alf just run yards for infected stock and yards for healthy stock?

I see the situation as like psa short term pain but alright in the long run ... who knows may provide a opportunity to pick up some cheap alf shares a
ALF with their trading app and platform, together with their robust livestock sales & purchase agreements are extremely well placed to be the preferred agent for trading without the need for stockyards IF that ever became a mandatory requirement, which it wont.

If anything, the rules and regulations to be complied with in the future (if any new rules/regiulations eventuate) will only increase the farming sector's need for agents (ALF or other) to be an integral part of the process. It will also justify the said agent to charge more for the service.

Vaygor1

27-05-2018, 10:34 AM

The notion of stopping/banning cattle movements across the board is not only ridiculous, it's impossible.
This mainstream media cant be trusted to report anything without a healthy dose of scaremongering.

Additional compliance rules (if any) governing the transfer of livestock between any two parties can only work in ALF's favour imho.

https://www.whaleoil.co.nz/2018/05/how-convenient/

The price drop is good news for me.. more shares for less.
ALF SP will hopefully drop more yet given the fear instilled in the market by the press.

Hectorplains

27-05-2018, 01:57 PM

bull....

27-05-2018, 03:47 PM

another thing is farmers may now want to purchase there own bulls instead of getting the same one who travels around.

freddagg

28-05-2018, 01:06 AM

Some very interesting info on M bovis and well worth a read.

https://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news/93940/mycoplasma-bovis-do-we-need-go-so-fast-and-should-north-and-south-islands-be

minimoke

28-05-2018, 07:13 AM

I'm hoping they go with management and Not eradication. Putting faith in MPI would be a huge mistake. I know of an issue going through the courts and rate their performance 1/10. Heaven help farmers if they turn out to be anything like EQC - which i see no reason why they would not be similarly competent.

minimoke

28-05-2018, 04:02 PM

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

bull....

28-05-2018, 06:17 PM

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

and all those cows will need to be replaced

Vaygor1

31-05-2018, 05:48 AM

Cattle in NZ: 10,400,000
M Bovis Culling: 22,332
Decrease in cattle population: One fifth of 1%

Sources:

http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/environment/environmental-reporting-series/environmental-indicators/Home/Land/livestock-numbers/livestock-numbers-archived-19-04-2018/livestock-numbers-archived-27-04-2017.aspx

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12015937

Vaygor1

31-05-2018, 05:54 AM

Oh well. There's a fail for Labour. Phased eradication of 150,000 cattle over 2 years. That will never work.

What I am a bit concerned about is ALF's H1 results looking forward.

Most livestock companies get 90% of their income in May each year.
ALF's H1/H2 results are historically a little more balanced due to the Bobby Calf season for Meat export in November each year, during ALF's H1.

With all this culling, will there be significantly less bobby calves available for slaughter and export each year as farmers replenish their stocks?

Even 150,000 culls represents a mere 0.7 of 1% decrease per annum for 2 years. I would have thought natural variance in cattle numbers each year would be more than this.

whome

04-06-2018, 11:30 AM

Calf rearers will be most affected by M bovis. With uncertain supply of calves and rising milk prices hence rising milk powder calf feed prices, I see bobby calf numbers wil be massive, huge, as the only outlet available for this number of calves. 4.86 mill dairy cows-in-milk produce 4.86 mill calves, less dairy replacement stock usually 10% but this year could be 20% as dairy farmers hunker down and restrict farm access until they learn to deal with M bovis. With not much rearing, and no land or infrastructure on dairy farms to rear them, calves will go for export veal or petfood.

percy

30-08-2018, 10:30 AM

forest

30-08-2018, 12:14 PM

Percy I am a bit less positive about this one and not following ALF closely. So I have no view on the latest results.

Beagle

31-08-2018, 09:42 AM

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00983/allied-farmers-wary-of-m-bovis-impact-on-livestock-trade.htm

I am not opining on this one.

bull....

31-08-2018, 09:48 AM

i sold out for a loss on this , movis bovis creates to much uncertainty for me.

percy

31-08-2018, 09:50 AM

Impossible to qualify at this stage.
PGW are working closely with their customers and industry bodies.
I expect ALF are as well.
I do like the huge increase in the livestock finance receivables.
Should be very profitable.
Lowered my average share price cost awhile ago,so will continue to hold my near "free ones."

golden city

31-08-2018, 09:58 AM

I am Loading up Do like what they done so far Finance part look very interesting

Vaygor1

13-09-2018, 03:55 AM

Where are you Vaygor1 and Forest.?
The result was a bit of a mixed bag.Trading was challenging in both livestock and calves..
Yet I see a great lot of positives.
The settlement from litigation was a handy $441,000.
The new Livestock finance subsidiary is gaining real traction, with receivables of $4.6mil up from $2.1mil last year.
The balance sheet keeps on improving with shareholders equity going from -[$3,887,000] in 2014 to a very healthy $3,466,000 this year.

Hi Percy et al.

I have been over-working myself a bit lately in a role that has morphed into a somewhat unenjoyable one, a little smidgeon of light at the end of the tunnel now... hopefully not from an oncoming train.

The ALF 2018 Annual result on the whole looks positive. The performance for the financial year ending 30-June-2018 is ahead of last year, but only because of the 1-off approx $440k injection from the PWC litigation case.

My preliminary notes follow. I am happy to be corrected if I have erred along the way....

(000)

NPBT $2,435

NPAT $2,225

Attrib $1,535

Shares 161,505

Eps 0.0095

Current Price $0.070

PE 7.3

Who was selling at 7c yesterday and why? Despite the bargain I am not buying as I already have enough.

The press reported 'No dividend was declared'.

Refer https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311018 dated 28-11-2017:
"The Directors considered it prudent to delay the declaration and payment of this dividend until later in the current financial year, recognising that Spring is a period of higher demand for working capital."

and also Refer https://www.nzx.com/announcements/314537 dated 21-2-2018:
"Consistent with prior years, after completion of financial statements for the full year the Board will determine whether a dividend will be paid."

Putting these statement together, I fully expect a dividend announcement in Nov/Dec 2018. The question is how much?

Refer https://www.nzx.com/announcements/306368 dated 30-8-2017
"ALF shall not reduce its equity capital by way of share re-purchase or other means without bondholders approval [i.e. from financial year ending 30-June-2017 to 30-June-2021] provided however that ALF may pay, in relation to each financial year of the term of the Bond, an interim and/or final dividend of up to 51% of the Net Profit After Tax for that interim and/or full year period."

I read above as ALF potentially paying a dividend of up to $1,535,000 x 51% = Max $782,850 or 0.4847 cents/share.

By my calcs, ALF have the free cashflow to pay all of the 0.4847 cents/share as a gross dividend if they want to. I anticipate (i.e. guess) ALF will announce before Christmas a dividend of 0.30 to 0.35 cents/share fully imputed, payable in January 2019.

Of note is that the current financial year (ending 30-June-2019) is the first year since buying L I Redshaw that annual payments associated with aquisition are no longer required. Theoretically, this will free up an additional $225,000 (or 0.14 cents/share) of cash compared to the financial year ending 30-June-2018, all other things being equal.

The newly established financing subsidiary of the Livestock Division looks like a growth area… well worth keeping an eye on.

When looking at equity, note there are off-balance-sheet assets. Also note the increase in Goodwill due to the completion of the 52% acquisition of LI Redshaw.

The USD/NZD exchange rate drop since last year will help improve ALF's H1 result (heavily influenced by export bobby-calf meat to the US) this financial year... again all other things being equal.

END

percy

27-09-2018, 05:32 PM

Sorry I have been so rude and not replied earlier.
Thank you for your post.
Yes the finance side should be well worth watching.

Vaygor1

03-11-2018, 01:30 PM

Further to my most recent post on this thread, I note the following on the matter of Bonds.
This from the latest ALF annual report....

Bonds

020 Bond

Albany Braithwaite Holdings Limited, an Associated Person of Director Mark Benseman, is currently the holder of 600,000 first ranking bonds issued in a $1 million bond issue on 9 October 2014 (“020 Bond”). The 020 Bond was due to mature on 31 September 2017, but the 020 Bondholders, including Albany Braithwaite Holdings Limited, agreed among other things, to extend the maturity date to 30 September 2021.

030 Bond

Albany Braithwaite Holdings Limited is currently the holder of 150,000 second ranking bonds issued in a $550,000 bond issued on 31 August 2016 (“030 Bond”). The 030 Bonds are due to mature on 30 September 2018. Two bondholders, one of whom is Albany Braithwaite Holdings Limited, will be repaid in full on maturity date. The remaining two 030 Bondholders, holding 300,000 bonds, have agreed among other things, to extend the maturity date for their 030 Bonds to 31 March 2019.

The 020 Bond is of no immediate issue regarding free cashflow, and as alluded to in my last post, it is these bondholders who have the medium term say on whether or not an annual dividend is paid.

The 030 Bond though, required a repayment of $250k (I understand it is 1$/bond) on 30-Sept-2018.
Unless extended, which has occurred in the past, the remaining $300k requires repayment on 31-March-2019

I don't think the $250k materially changes ALF's free cashflow to provide a dividend payment this Christmas/New Year, as this $250k bond payment effectively replaces the $225k LI Redshaw acquisition payment, which is no longer required. The final LI Redshaw payment occurred in the previous financial year.

Whether or not the remaining $300k (or part thereof) of the 030 bond is extended past 31-March-2019 is unknown at this stage.
If it has been decided by the 2 applicable bondholders that it all must be repaid on 31-March-2019, this might have an impact on the size of this year's Christmas/New Year dividend payout.

I have also recently observed the following:

USD/NZD exchange rate (up 10% on last year) favours ALF in their bobby calf export business. The bobby calf export business has a significant influence over ALF's H1 result.

Also, red meat export volumes across the country are up 25% on last year.

The price/head for livestock across the country has gone ballistic. If ALF's %age commission remains the same or similar as the past, then it looks like a very good year for ALF and all livestock agent companies.

I am expecting good results (and/or very encouraging guidance) regarding the new financing subsidiary of the Livestock Division. An update on this should be forthcoming at this year's Annual Shareholders Meeting held later this month.

percy

03-11-2018, 03:30 PM

Thank you for your update.
I think the agm should have positve news/updates for us.
I hope you will be attending it.?

Vaygor1

03-11-2018, 07:34 PM

Thank you for your update.
I think the agm should have positve news/updates for us.
I hope you will be attending it.?

I will do my best Percy but it looks like a bit of a long shot.
Currently in an Aussie town 5 hours behind New Zealand and just kicked off a project which may provide me a window to get back to NZ for the ASM.

Given my remote location and the venue for the meeting, the fastest possible time I could get there from here involves 23 hours travel one way. :(

You contemplating attending?

percy

03-11-2018, 09:25 PM

I will do my best Percy but it looks like a bit of a long shot.
Currently in an Aussie town 5 hours behind New Zealand and just kicked off a project which may provide me a window to get back to NZ for the ASM.

Given my remote location and the venue for the meeting, the fastest possible time I could get there from here involves 23 hours travel one way. :(

You contemplating attending?

No.
Make me feel guilty.
Maybe only a few hours from ChCh.
We will have to make do with their presentations.
Will miss out all the gems you and Forest are good at finding out.....lol.

Vaygor1

05-11-2018, 12:05 PM

Garry Bluett is stepping down. Announcement this morning...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/326307

The share price is up straight away (on light volume so far today) and there's quite a bit of depth there too.

I can't understand it. Why would the share price go up? Garry has been a brilliant Chairman and without doubt was the central figure in saving the company from the brink. I would use stronger words than this, however Garry has always maintained ALF's recovery was truly a team effort.

Like Garry, the new Chair, Mark Bensemen has plenty of skin in the game.. including (directly and indirectly) being the largest shareholder of the business... so the news is certainly not bad by any stretch.

Leftfield

05-11-2018, 01:04 PM

percy

05-11-2018, 01:07 PM

pgc up also? Coincidence? Maybe the market is anticipating a merger? (very left field thinking. Dyor and take care.)

pgc.....?????????????????????????????????????????? ?

Arthur

05-11-2018, 01:16 PM

Buy order was placed before he announced

minimoke

05-11-2018, 02:20 PM

Vaygor1

05-11-2018, 10:03 PM

I wouldn't read too much into one trade worth $1,600

Neither me. It was predominantly the volume related to the depth of buy offers that triggered my post. The small order that went through was really just a function of that depth imho.

golden city

25-11-2018, 09:18 AM

Any one going to agm on Tuesday. I am planing to go

blackcap

25-11-2018, 12:15 PM

Any one going to agm on Tuesday. I am planing to go

I am still pondering whether I can be bothered making the effort. For me its about a 3 1/2 hour drive, but have not been to Hawera in a long time so depends how I feel on Monday evening.

golden city

25-11-2018, 09:16 PM

Five hour drive for me. Haha

golden city

25-11-2018, 09:18 PM

Hopefully there are dividends to compensate me haha

Vaygor1

25-11-2018, 11:43 PM

Any one going to agm on Tuesday. I am planing to go

I am stuck in Western Australia so I can't make it unfortunately.

percy

26-11-2018, 07:42 AM

Any one going to agm on Tuesday. I am planing to go

Well golden city it looks as though we are all relying on you to report the meeting for us.!

golden city

27-11-2018, 09:44 AM

Looking good with dividends

Vaygor1

27-11-2018, 03:25 PM

Looking good with dividends

Yes, correct Golden City.

Dividend the same as last year. 0.2c fully imputed (Gross dividend of 0.278 cents/share).

I note in all caps on the presentation notes the wording "On track to be significantly ahead of first half of last year". My understanding is ALF are well ahead now of where they wanted to be by 31-Dec-2018.

I believe the Board indicated at the ASM the 030 Bonds (totalling $300,000) would be fully repaid to bond-holders in March 2019 as ALF would not be seeking extension. $250,000 was paid in September 2018.

This means the amount repaid to 030 bondholders plus the amount paid for the gross dividend for the current financial year will total almost exactly $1 million, or 0.62 cents per share.
A part of this is likely to be funded through ALF's banking arrangements I would think. By all accounts the banks are very comfortable with ALF's position. More prudent to pay a lesser interest rate to a bank than the bondholders' rate.

Presentation notes also state "Finance subsidiary ahead of plan". Not much was said about the finance side at the ASM I understand. My belief is ALF's financing vehicle helps ALF in its capacity as an agent to fast-track the contract process, expediently secure the financial side of a livestock transaction, and provide peace of mind for the livestock seller when forward contracting. All without having to pay some other crowd to do it, while waiting for approval.

Possibly more to add later.

golden city

27-11-2018, 05:17 PM

Are you in agm vaygor

blackcap

27-11-2018, 05:55 PM

Yes, correct Golden City.

Dividend the same as last year. 0.2c fully imputed (Gross dividend of 0.278 cents/share).

I note in all caps on the presentation notes the wording "On track to be significantly ahead of first half of last year". My understanding is ALF are well ahead now of where they wanted to be by 31-Dec-2018.

I believe the Board indicated at the ASM the 030 Bonds (totalling $300,000) would be fully repaid to bond-holders in March 2019 as ALF would not be seeking extension. $250,000 was paid in September 2018.

This means the amount repaid to 030 bondholders plus the amount paid for the gross dividend for the current financial year will total almost exactly $1 million, or 0.62 cents per share.
A part of this is likely to be funded through ALF's banking arrangements I would think. By all accounts the banks are very comfortable with ALF's position. More prudent to pay a lesser interest rate to a bank than the bondholders' rate.

Presentation notes also state "Finance subsidiary ahead of plan". Not much was said about the finance side at the ASM I understand. My belief is ALF's financing vehicle helps ALF in its capacity as an agent to fast-track the contract process, expediently secure the financial side of a livestock transaction, and provide peace of mind for the livestock seller when forward contracting. All without having to pay some other crowd to do it, while waiting for approval.

Possibly more to add later.

What you have said was pretty much confirmed at AGM. Looking to repay bonds. (question was asked from floor). Livestock finance helps agents fasttrack contract process and or gain contract where none could otherwise be found. 13% was the interest rate mentioned, the security is the livestock and or other collaterol.

Dividends may be increased in future if balance sheet is shored up a bit more and when bonds are repaid. Although problem I have with that is that imputation credits are going to run out. Would rather not pay tax if need to and suggested a share buy back.

They are ahead this year, but did say they have no idea on the second half as you are probably aware there are 2 segments to the business.

They also did acknowledge that the FY18 result was not that great as the 400k one off is not recurring and corporate costs the year before were flattered by some smoothing process.

Gary Bluett was given a farewell speech by the board and a shareholder on the floor thanked him and was almost moved to tears saying the sacrifice he had put in for the company.

I may post more as more comes to hand and when I have more time.

percy

27-11-2018, 05:57 PM

You are doing well.
Glad you made the trip and are sharing with us.

Vaygor1

27-11-2018, 06:15 PM

Are you in agm vaygor

No Golden City. I am in a time zone 5 hrs behind NZ.
I do know others that attended who have since reported back to me.
Also I referred in my post to the presentation notes available via the NZX.

Refer: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/327435

Vaygor

golden city

11-02-2019, 08:42 PM

First half guidance achieved looks solid

NeverQuestion

12-02-2019, 12:30 PM

First half guidance achieved looks solid

Next stop the Moon!

golden city

12-02-2019, 07:33 PM

Looking good now after a long consolidation period

Vaygor1

18-02-2019, 03:10 PM

Share price up a little based on ALF's 11th Feb guidance update.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/330416

ALF's H1 figures (due for release this month I think) may well beat their full-year vanilla result from 6 months ago... should find out in a few days.

golden city

19-02-2019, 10:04 AM

I had felling it could be a surprise result too much better than we thought

NeverQuestion

25-02-2019, 12:15 PM

I had felling it could be a surprise result too much better than we thought

"ALF’s Results and Report for the HY19 will be released to the market on or before 1 March 2019."

Perhaps today? Or Last minute on the 28th..

All bets are are on! :cool:

golden city

26-02-2019, 09:15 AM

Looks like Alf is on a acqusition model after 1.5m

blackcap

26-02-2019, 09:21 AM

Looks like Alf is on a acqusition model after 1.5m

Yeah I wonder what they needed the 1.5m for as well. I am trying to think back to the AGM if this was signaled or not but do not think so. Will be fascinating to see what they come up with.

golden city

26-02-2019, 09:23 AM

Gary mentioned new chairman would like to grow the company faster and look for opportunities when I was talking personally

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 10:34 AM

Yeah I wonder what they needed the 1.5m for as well. I am trying to think back to the AGM if this was signaled or not but do not think so. Will be fascinating to see what they come up with.

Just saw the announcement.

Market typically drops the SP when this occurs.. traders selling to then buy back in at the offer price which is usually lower than the current volume weighted market price over the last month.

Not sure how it will work this time as I believe ALF'S H1 result about to come out will be a ripper.

I speculate the money raised (at least for the most part) will not be used to pay back any 020 or 030 bond holders as by now there should theoretically be enough free cashflow to do that without raising more capital.

golden city

26-02-2019, 10:41 AM

They should announced the result together as a good result will give shareholder confidence

NeverQuestion

26-02-2019, 10:47 AM

They should announced the result together as a good result will give shareholder confidence

Yeah, Was looking forward to the earnings announcement and now couldn't careless... Feeling shafted, and a cash cow. After an already depressed share price, We needed better news. Will take a few months for the Share price to bounce back from this I feel.

Market timing is everything. They should have waited for a few good announcements before forcing this onto shareholders.

Gutted.

golden city

26-02-2019, 10:53 AM

Should have push share prices over 10c before considering any cr now sellingvtoo cheaply

golden city

26-02-2019, 10:54 AM

I have bought my self into the top 10 shareholder and now I am disappointing to build more

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 11:03 AM

Yeah, Was looking forward to the earnings announcement and now couldn't careless... Feeling shafted, and a cash cow. After an already depressed share price, We needed better news. Will take a few months for the Share price to bounce back from this I feel.

Market timing is everything. They should have waited for a few good announcements before forcing this onto shareholders.

Gutted.

Hold fast there NQ. These are exciting times. I contend ALF have issued nothing but good announcements over the past many years.

No point in drawing any major conclusions just yet. If ALF want to use the money to buy out some/all of NZFL then I would support that.

A few months is nothing in the scheme of things really.

golden city

26-02-2019, 11:11 AM

I don’t think they will buy out NZFL. It is part of the plan to gives shares to the agents

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 11:11 AM

I have bought my self into the top 10 shareholder and now I am disappointing to build more

The request for capital is being made to all existing shareholders. Assuming the timing is right, you may well be in a position to acquire shares at 7-10c each knowing they are worth at least double that.

golden city

26-02-2019, 11:12 AM

That is why I bought in during the last year it is really undervalued

percy

26-02-2019, 11:14 AM

The company has been making excellent progress.
I would very much doubt the board would be raising capital, unless they had something worthwhile in mind.
I look forward to finding out what that is.
However, I hate SPPs and much prefer rights issues.

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 11:26 AM

That is why I bought in during the last year it is really undervalued

If ALF want to raise $1.5 million and the offer is set right, then irrespective of the share price, the amount you will need to come up with to retain your %age ownership will be the number of shares you hold divided by 161.5 million issued shares x $1.5 million dollars. The $/share you pay is not in the equation.

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 03:04 PM

.... However, I hate SPPs and much prefer rights issues.

I am pretty sure that the maximum entitlement under an SPP in the ASX is A$15,000 per holder.
Do you know if this is the case on the NZX in NZ$ Percy?

percy

26-02-2019, 03:18 PM

I am pretty sure that the maximum entitlement under an SPP in the ASX is A$15,000 per holder.
Do you know if this is the case on the NZX in NZ$ Percy?

Yes same here,$15,000.
They often have the right to scale applications.
Those holders with large holdings get more;
.ie. a shareholder who holds 2,000 shares who applies for $15,000 worth may get none,while
a shareholder who holds 500,000 + shares will most probably get their whole $15,000 worth.

NeverQuestion

26-02-2019, 04:31 PM

Looks like Alf is on a acqusition model after 1.5m

If it is another finance company I'm walking... %Cough% Han(g)over Finance %Cough%.

I promise to be more positive now :)

Hopefully an excellent announcement coming up!!!

whatsup

26-02-2019, 05:22 PM

SPP announced after trading closed today but the ex date was the 25/2/19 very strange as those who bought today- possible 7 purchasers miss out on the .073 spp offer , not good imo.

whatsup

26-02-2019, 05:25 PM

1/2 year profit of $1.17 mil also ann big improvement should help the SPP, where to from here ?

blackcap

26-02-2019, 05:26 PM

SPP announced after trading closed today but the ex date was the 25/2/19 very strange as those who bought today- possible 7 purchasers miss out on the .073 spp offer , not good imo.

and then there is this:

HY19 RESULTS AND HALF YEAR REPORT

The Directors of Allied Farmers Limited (ALF) report an unaudited after tax
profit of $1.17 million for the six months ended 31 December 2018. As
disclosed to the market on 11 February 2019, and previously signalled at the
November 2018 Annual Meeting, the result is significantly ahead of the first
half of the 2018 financial year of $0.25 million. The Board acknowledges the
contribution of the staff in producing this excellent result.

golden city

26-02-2019, 05:42 PM

Amazing result

blackcap

26-02-2019, 05:49 PM

Amazing result

That is about .7 cents per share for a H/Y on a 7 cent stock. So annualising this makes a PE of 5. (That said, second half could be more or less but if it is the same as last year we are in for a bumper)

I am all in for a top up at 7.3 cents. Spoke with Mark at the AGM but he never let on that the H/Y would be this much, although at that stage may not have had that much of an idea.

Wonder if they are going to use the extra $1.5m to grow the finance side of the business?

golden city

26-02-2019, 05:59 PM

I notice the meat business is going very well too sales almost double

golden city

26-02-2019, 05:59 PM

Finance part as expected doing well also

percy

26-02-2019, 06:00 PM

That is about .7 cents per share for a H/Y on a 7 cent stock. So annualising this makes a PE of 5. (That said, second half could be more or less but if it is the same as last year we are in for a bumper)

I am all in for a top up at 7.3 cents. Spoke with Mark at the AGM but he never let on that the H/Y would be this much, although at that stage may not have had that much of an idea.

Wonder if they are going to use the extra $1.5m to grow the finance side of the business?

Be good if they did.
Overheads and systems are already in place.

Vaygor1

26-02-2019, 09:02 PM

SPP announced after trading closed today but the ex date was the 25/2/19 very strange as those who bought today- possible 7 purchasers miss out on the .073 spp offer , not good imo.

I bought today at 7.9c and pleased I did. Under SPP rules I can only get max $15k of new shares. At 7.3 cents/share = 205k shares..... not enough to maintain my current percentage of ownership.

What are the chances of me getting the balance of shares I need at under 8c/share, now with this H1 announcement?... I'm not sure but I do have more to buy yet and, for the small premium, I'd rather get what I want sooner rather than later. Hopefully the market will value them at 7.3c for the next wee while.

Net Profit after Tax up 882% on the pcp.... I was hoping for 10 x the pcp = 900% increase, but can't say I'm disappointed :D

My post here on 18-Feb-2019, "ALF's H1 figures (due for release this month I think) may well beat their full-year vanilla result from 6 months ago... should find out in a few days." not far off the mark if I may pat myself on the back a little bit.

percy

26-02-2019, 09:18 PM

The share price is often the lowest when shareholders receive the SPP paperwork, and have to find the funds, and make their payment.
Should the share price not settle well above 8 cents I expect a great number will not bother.
With my dislike of SPPs I will most probably be one of them,well two of them, as the wife also has a holding.
The sp will need to settle above 9 cents for me to spring into action.
Maybe it will.?

golden city

26-02-2019, 09:36 PM

That was your order vaygor1 congratulations well done on the move it still look cheap should be over 10c after the announcement

percy

26-02-2019, 09:40 PM

Should the share hold over 10 cents I may find I really like SPPs...lol.

golden city

26-02-2019, 09:47 PM

If everybody subscribe. It will be heavy scale backs

golden city

26-02-2019, 09:48 PM

There is about 5000 shareholders

NeverQuestion

27-02-2019, 10:11 AM

That was your order vaygor1 congratulations well done on the move it still look cheap should be over 10c after the announcement

Today is the day! Will she or won't she smash past 10c

blackcap

27-02-2019, 11:13 AM

Today is the day! Will she or won't she smash past 10c

Not going to happen with the SPP at 7.3 hanging over the SP. But the result was astounding and I will be going for a few of the 7.3 cent shares.

golden city

01-03-2019, 09:58 AM

If the price stay like this. Won’t be much people subscribe into spp

blackcap

01-03-2019, 12:40 PM

If the price stay like this. Won’t be much people subscribe into spp

Why? If i can get shares at 7.3 cents and sell at 8 cents that is an instant 10% gain. I am all in on this one.

golden city

01-03-2019, 03:47 PM

Because no depth even you got at 0.073c there is no back up volume to support your sell

whatsup

01-03-2019, 03:56 PM

Why? If i can get shares at 7.3 cents and sell at 8 cents that is an instant 10% gain. I am all in on this one.

Bc, don't bank on that happening, Im picking that after the SPP the share price will settle back at .075 or there abouts.

blackcap

01-03-2019, 04:06 PM

Bc, don't bank on that happening, Im picking that after the SPP the share price will settle back at .075 or there abouts.

Even with the HY they just put out? Im not too sure myself. Am topping up at 7.3 but not selling. So my shares will not add to the supply.

golden city

23-03-2019, 12:01 AM

A very good result over subscribe

golden city

16-04-2019, 03:47 PM

Somehow people keep selling

percy

16-04-2019, 09:42 PM

Somehow people keep selling

Looks to me as though someone loaded up with the SPP,and now not making the big bucks they thought they would make,has decided to sell.
Although the chart does not look too flash, I think they are excellent buying at the current price.

golden city

16-04-2019, 11:31 PM

That is why I keep loading up what people sell

golden city

11-06-2019, 09:39 AM

No surprises Not as good was expecting

Lola

11-06-2019, 10:07 AM

No surprises Not as good was expecting

QUite on the contrary. Going back through some of your postings the tone is consistently -ve and usually wrong.

I think this is a damn good result given the circumstances that M Bovis presents and still presents. Last year had the $400k on off revenue remember. This stock is a tidy, better than little, divvy producer for holders of it now.

golden city

11-06-2019, 10:10 AM

Given the first half amount should not we expecting more

winner69

11-06-2019, 10:17 AM

Not going backwards in challenging times is pretty good

blackcap

11-06-2019, 10:18 AM

Given the first half amount should not we expecting more

The thing is with ALF, their two halves are pretty much mutually exclusive of one another. So yes their second half is definitely not as good as their first half so you are correct in that this is a disappointing announcement for ALF but then again not unexpected in that it can go either way. Great that the excellent first half will underpin the FY though.

golden city

11-06-2019, 10:26 AM

By saying that share price not moving up as the first half profit announcement. So as expected people priced in second half won’t be too exciting.

golden city

11-06-2019, 10:29 AM

So it looks like it is a clever spp. Now just hopefully they can get some sort of growth from the spp money

blackcap

20-06-2019, 01:10 PM

Am I reading this correctly that they in effect did a share buy back at 7.6 cents?

Ie could not sell on market so bought the shares themselves?

Not complaining, always good to clean up the register and 7.6 cents seems like a fair price to me.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336310

percy

20-06-2019, 01:15 PM

Valuegrowth

22-06-2019, 05:54 PM

https://www.pigprogress.net/Health/Articles/2019/6/Rabobank-predicts-meat-shortages-due-to-ASF-in-China-439124E/

Rabobank predicts meat shortages due to ASF in China

Not sure whether ALF is going to benefit. Will the international prices for calf products starting to improve?

Hectorplains

23-06-2019, 06:52 PM

Well that's the way I read it too.
Positive.

The market couldn't find a buyer(s) for $266k in 2 weeks. Not much of a confidence vote that.

percy

23-06-2019, 07:33 PM

The market couldn't find a buyer(s) for $266k in 2 weeks. Not much of a confidence vote that.

I thought it was positive the shares had been brought back and cancelled, saving the costs of servicing tinny shareholders.
Good house keeping,which was the objective of the exercise..

Vaygor1

25-06-2019, 09:40 AM

I thought it was positive the shares had been brought back and cancelled, saving the costs of servicing tinny shareholders.
Good house keeping,which was the objective of the exercise..
I am glad ALF ended up buying them all back.

Back in late 2015, ALF did the same thing. Refer this announcement:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/275464

Note the announcement back then states ALF can compulsory acquire the holdings belonging to those owning less than 2000 shares but chose to apply it to only those holding less than 1000 shares.

I now believe that the 1000 share threshold was chosen back then because, in the event the acquired shares didn't sell on-market, ALF couldn't afford the outlay needed to buy them all back.

In speaking to Garry Bluett some time after the under-1000-threshold compulsory acquisition took place, I recall Garry telling me that the payback of the initiative (due to the reduction in the cost to ALF of Link Market Services maintaining such a large share register relative to ALF's size) was less than 1 year.

This time around, with circa 3.5 million shares for sale in only 10 days, I was only expecting 100k or 200k shares (at most) to sell anyway, given current market ill-liquidity (in nearly all my holdings, including ALF).

The buyback means my ALF holding is worth 2% more now, and the cost of performing the initiative will fully pay for itself in the forthcoming financial year commencing in 7 days from now.

Looking at the spread of those holding ALF on 6-Aug-last year....

10639

.... I estimate the number of shareholders in ALF will have dropped from about 5400 to (probably) just under 2000.

golden city

26-06-2019, 09:06 AM

Let’s hope we can receive a fatter dividends this year

Vaygor1

26-06-2019, 10:51 AM

Let’s hope we can receive a fatter dividends this year

Going by ALF's latest guidance, I estimate the following based on a few assumptions:

(000)

NPBT $2,200

NPAT $2,000

Attrib $1,380

Shares 178,547

Eps $0.0077

Current Price $0.070

PE 9

Assuming the above is reasonably close to the mark, the maximum dividend payout according to the board's agreement with the existing bondholders is 1/2 the annual EPS = 0.385 cents/share.

The two dividends ALF have paid to-date were both 0.2 cents/share

golden city

26-06-2019, 07:12 PM

I wish they could give out 0.03 this year

NeverQuestion

28-06-2019, 09:14 AM

I wish they could give out 0.03 this year

Any predictions on the Share Price from here? Where do everyone see the share price in 2 years time?

Leftfield

01-07-2019, 09:06 AM

Changes ahead for ALF holders.....

"The Directors of Allied Farmers Limited (ALF) have resolved to consolidate the existing ordinary shares (Shares) on issue in ALF (Consolidation). Under the Consolidation, every 10 existing Shares held in ALF on 16 July 2019 (Record Date) will be consolidated into 1 Share. As a result of the Consolidation the number of Shares on issue in ALF will be reduced from 178,547,294 to approximately 17,854,729 Shares."

percy

01-07-2019, 09:09 AM

I thought it was positive the shares had been brought back and cancelled, saving the costs of servicing tinny shareholders.
Good house keeping,which was the objective of the exercise..

Adding to the above I think the share consolidation adds to the "good house keeping" as it means ALF will no longer be,or seen to be, a "penny dreadful".
Positive.

golden city

01-07-2019, 09:24 AM

It will be more easier for investor to see the earning numbers per share and pe

Vaygor1

01-07-2019, 03:59 PM

I thought it was positive the shares had been brought back and cancelled, saving the costs of servicing tinny shareholders.
Good house keeping,which was the objective of the exercise..Adding to the above I think the share consolidation adds to the "good house keeping" as it means ALF will no longer be,or seen to be, a "penny dreadful".
Positive.

Yeah. I would currently describe it as a penny stock, but not a penny dreadful stock.

I note the end of the announcement states "... it is anticipated that the price at which Shares trade on the NZX immediately following the Consolidation will increase relative to the Consolidation ratio."

Not sure if this is the case. Most share consolidations I have seen have resulted in a small decrease in the overall market cap. ie. A lot of Mum and Dad investors prefer paying $1/share instead of $10/share after a hypothetical 10-1 share split... they perceive better value for money (ie, $1k gets you 1000 shares instead of only 100).

Visa versa for a share consolidation.

On 16-Nov-2011 ALF undertook a 100:1 share consolidation. Refer http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/ALF/216386/149298.pdf
The number of shares on issue went from 9 billion to 90 million. :eek2:

I recall the overall market cap dropped quite a bit following (due to?) that consolidation,... but my memory may be failing me here.

$0.70/share does look better than $0.07 I guess, so this consolidation may improve the price slightly.

percy

01-07-2019, 04:43 PM

Sorry, yes I should have written just a penny stock.
I agree that consolidations often result in a small decrease in the overall market cap,[in the short term]. .

percy

03-07-2019, 06:16 PM

Doing my community service today, I took the 68,054 shares off the seller's hands at 7 cents.

percy

09-07-2019, 12:10 PM

Perhaps it was a mention in www.chrislee.co.nz market news. that has caused the strong buying interest,.?

Leftfield

09-07-2019, 12:25 PM

Perhaps it was a mention in www.chrislee.co.nz (http://www.chrislee.co.nz) market news. that has caused the strong buying interest,.?

More likely news of your buying at 7 cents has leaked out!! ;)

SilverBack

09-07-2019, 11:30 PM

Perhaps it was a mention in www.chrislee.co.nz (http://www.chrislee.co.nz) market news. that has caused the strong buying interest,.?

The SP has bounced around the 7c level for years following the massive write-offs from the failed foray into the finance industry. I fail to see the investment case.

NeverQuestion

10-07-2019, 10:59 PM

The SP has bounced around the 7c level for years following the massive write-offs from the failed foray into the finance industry. I fail to see the investment case.

Which is another reason I'm out if they decide to go back into financial industry. Now isn't the time to make that move.

SilverBack

10-07-2019, 11:16 PM

Which is another reason I'm out if they decide to go back into financial industry. Now isn't the time to make that move.

I wonder how much peer-peer is impacting the unsecured personal loan market? I assume that the farming sector would be largely in this arena? Harmoney's lending rates seem lower than the traditional finance companies. Perhaps ALF would do better to work through Harmoney, just as Heartland and TradeMe do?

percy

11-07-2019, 07:33 AM

Lola

11-07-2019, 10:35 AM

Which is another reason I'm out if they decide to go back into financial industry. Now isn't the time to make that move.

With respect...100% wrong. The "foray" into the Finance sector via Hanover (Not Prime which was a flea invested dog) actually saved Allied. Not nice for shareholders I agree, but those assets acquired for paper provided a breathing space and a bridge to the survival we see today. Perhaps a name change to Phoenix Farmers Ltd would be appropriate?

NeverQuestion

11-07-2019, 11:02 AM

With respect...100% wrong. The "foray" into the Finance sector via Hanover (Not Prime which was a flea invested dog) actually saved Allied. Not nice for shareholders I agree, but those assets acquired for paper provided a breathing space and a bridge to the survival we see today. Perhaps a name change to Phoenix Farmers Ltd would be appropriate?

Care to elaborate? The fact that Hanover failed immediately is a sign to me that Allied Farmers Management team didn't full understand the business they were about to take over. Now, It might be a good move for promoting there core business with services on the side..But we are right at the end of the Macro credit cycle. To me this is a signal that there are significant defaults ahead. Allied Farmers just got themselves out of debt.. Wait until the credit crunch hits and make the acquisitions then I say.

Just my honest opinion, interested in your view point :)

percy

11-07-2019, 11:23 AM

NeverQuestion

11-07-2019, 11:59 AM

It would be helpful if posters read up ie read AFL reports, before they commented,or made judgements, based on things that happened years ago,and which have nothing to do with ALF's current directors,staff or business.

Been a Shareholder of the last 5 years and read every announcement since. Have I missed something? Please point me in the right direction if so. Happy to be wrong. Maybe I have missed something!

percy

11-07-2019, 12:21 PM

Been a Shareholder of the last 5 years and read every announcement since. Have I missed something? Please point me in the right direction if so. Happy to be wrong. Maybe I have missed something!
Your posts show a total lack of understanding AFL's current business,or its future.

Yet it is made very clear in their announcements.
Reread them.

Vaygor1

11-07-2019, 12:24 PM

Livestock financing is a very profitable sector,and ALF are achieving strong growth, with their finance operation.
Yes HGH are also in it,however we must remember ALF are closer to farmers than HGH.
The half year result dated 26th February is worth reading.

Been a Shareholder of the last 5 years and read every announcement since. Have I missed something? Please point me in the right direction if so. Happy to be wrong. Maybe I have missed something!

Just to clarify a for you NeverQuestion, about 1 or 2 years ago ALF moved into offering the service of financing deals for those buying/selling livestock. Up until then, they had to engage a 3rd party to do it.

In speaking to Garry Bluett when he was Chairman, he assured me this initiative did not involve ALF becoming a financing operation per se. No financing for the the buying and selling of, real estate, farms, or anything other than livestock.

The benefits of doing this enabled ALF to:

* Arrange the deal without needing a 3rd party approval.
* Offer better terms than the 3rd parties out there.
* Close the deal much faster for all.
* Make some money out of the deal instead of the finance companies making it.
* Strike a deal between a livestock buyer and a seller that would have otherwise not occurred.

For other readers (as I am sure you are aware of the following NQ), initiatives recently undertaken by ALF are:

* introduction and continuous improvement of their MyLiveStock App
* Live Steaming from Auctioneering Sales Yards with the ability for remote viewers to practically buy and sell on the spot
* Have acquired other agencies and are continually looking for more
* Expanded into Northland
* Expanded into the South Island
* Considerably growing their numbers of agents
* Raising a bit of capital for the future, and In the process, effectively performed a share buy-back of approx 2% of the shares on issue
* Reducing NZX costs by eliminating the tiny shareholders from the register