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BRICKS
30-11-2005, 12:28 PM
Well the farmers are consolidating after recent take over position taking and ALF has fallen to a low position so no better time to BUY,, but last year two former employees removed .5 million out of the till and did not tell the BOSS made him very angry so they thew them in jail but the money is still amiss but with this now behind we can look forward to a better year.. [8D]

Snow Leopard
30-11-2005, 01:16 PM
Are talking about the wool fraud? I thought $510,000 for that had been repaid during the 2004 year.
Or is it yet another one?

k1w1
30-11-2005, 01:26 PM
Bricks, we already have a thread on this company.

BRICKS
30-11-2005, 01:38 PM
Yes it was $510,000 removed but all they got back was $4,000 leaving $506,000 short so they now will move on,, The search did not find one for about the ALF only so Regards.. [8D]

Snow Leopard
23-12-2005, 09:59 AM
Announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ALF&E=NZSE&N=125739) stating that pre-tax result for the year to June 2006 is likely to be static compared to 2005. But with no one off tax benefit this year.

BRICKS
23-12-2005, 05:15 PM
WELL a steady year means 16 cents div always a possible takeover but better still there not broke and the only direction is UP,, WATCH and select BUY.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
23-12-2005, 05:29 PM
Farmers income are going to reduce - unless the currency takes a dive. Commodity markets are starting to come back, and conditions are worsening after some great times in past years.

With interest rates increasing, farmers will have less money to spend. Can look to the share price of Pyne Gould Wrightsons, which has dropped about 40c of late.

Could be another pup like AIR. [8D]

BRICKS
24-12-2005, 09:41 AM
YOUR looking on with the normal KIWI doom & gloom,, "BOB" but KIWI FARMS are at a record price, the world is crying out for food GOV`s are working on the problem so more of long term required,, BUYing this share is the same as being on you own farm & real estate agent all in one,, instead of Knocking go back and read there REPORT.. and have HAPPY XMAS.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
24-12-2005, 10:55 AM
Wasn't just a comment on ALF, but on the rural sector also. Farm prices correlate to farm income. Historically prices are at high levels, but have to also look at the overall picture. ALF rely on farmer spending - interest rates are increasing (many farmers are heavily leveraged), and commodity prices decreasing. Costs continue to increase, and expenditure will be squeezed going forward. This obviously won't help ALF, where conditions will be tougher than in the past 3-4 years.

A static result is over the past year, and the heavier weather is ahead.

Not trying to be pessimistic, just telling it as it is. Lamb schedules are 10% less than what they were a year ago for example.

http://www.ruralnews.co.nz/Default.asp?task=article&subtask=show&item=9375&pageno=1

Share price has steadily declined over the past year, from about $3.20 to $2.30. A chart would be interesting.....


Merry Christmas to all!!

BRICKS
24-12-2005, 11:17 AM
RIGHT,, But reading your stated paper that bloke is lucky to be breathing,, But as there is only two or three major companies available for investment just try to pick the best of the worst as you would say, as the alternate is to do nothing.. XMAS 2005.. [8D]

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 04:32 PM
Stand by for small notice.. [8D]

BRICKS
31-01-2006, 04:46 PM
Well the company that you should now have small holding is moving right along buying the Mitre 10 Business in Hawera the head office town of ALF,, The store is adjacent to there existing farmers store and will make profits from the word "GO".. [8D]

Snow Leopard
02-02-2006, 05:50 AM
Mitre 10 purchase has failed to drag the share price out of it's decline. Even with the amazing profits to be made from hardware in the "town with a tower", I do not see this as a great buy. :(

Phaedrus
02-02-2006, 09:50 AM
Ah Bricks, we seem fated to disagree on practically everything. I don't experience such antipathy with many people - other than your good self, "The King" was the last poster with whom I could all but guarantee dissent.

Here is a chart of ALF. Now, I know that this doesn't predict the future, but it does show that ALF is currently in a steady downtrend with no sign of any reversal - in fact, it made a new 12 month low just this week. It is not good to hold stocks that are in downtrends like this.

As a "longterm hold" this stock has been a washout - the current price is still about what it was 4 years ago!

ALF is too illiquid to rate as a good trading stock, though I do understand that you are more of a long-term holder.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/ALF22001.gif

Snow Leopard
02-02-2006, 10:06 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Ah Bricks, we seem fated to disagree on practically everything. I don't experience such antipathy with many people - other than your good self, "The King" was the last poster with whom I could all but guarantee dissent.

It is almost as if Bricks is made from the verdigrease from The King's crown.

Everyone got excited that ALF was the next rationalisation of the rural sector in NZ and the SP is recovering from the none event. Add in that they are not having a flash year, pretty static and no little bonus goodies to hike the headline profit and the only hope for this in the near term is that there is a takeover offer. :(

BRICKS
12-02-2006, 04:13 PM
FALLING to support level about $1.95 going well,, Have you visited you Mitre 10 store of late.. THANKS Mr Chart man for you LOVE note did not know how you where effected by common sense to busy looking backward from where your been tell me when this stock will rise in advance ,, PT go back to your cage and talk to about the price of stocks next MONTH.. [8D]

Snow Leopard
14-02-2006, 08:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

FALLING to support level about $1.95 going well...
...PT go back to your cage and talk to about the price of stocks next MONTH.. [8D]

Sure thing. But I PRESUME that you don't WANT to talk about this post of YOURS when the share price was $2.30? [B)]


quote:
Posted - 23/12/2005 : 6:15:45 PM
WELL a steady year means 16 cents div always a possible takeover but better still there not broke and the only direction is UP,, WATCH and select BUY..

Panic E-Button
15-02-2006, 09:27 AM
How many food products contain no eggs remain on our diet list, if bird’s flu develop the way it is in Europe? Anyone thought about?

BRICKS
15-02-2006, 10:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by Panic E-Button

How many food products contain no eggs remain on our diet list, if bird’s flu develop the way it is in Europe? Anyone thought about?


Panic E-Button Good to hear from you with you egg bit are you living on a health farm now or retired from the NZX market feel NZ is safe at moment and some time best part Allied Farmers have NO chook farms
of size EARLY DAYS.. [8D]

D_Pick
15-02-2006, 10:34 AM
ALF aren't chicken farmers. I guess if a bird flu epidemic breaks out in NZ then sales of bird seed will decline? I wasn't aware ALF sell bird seed though.

ALF are probably more exposed to the real estate bubble through the "First National" brand, and their finance company, which appears to be showing signs of cooling along with the general economy. There are more motivated vendor signs / mortgagee sales being marketed these days.

Back to Bird Flu, I can't see this having any material effect on the value of ALF, unless this virus morphs into a mad cow, sheep and bird flu so that ALF have to get out of selling livestock.

BRICKS
16-02-2006, 12:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

ALF aren't chicken farmers. I guess if a bird flu epidemic breaks out in NZ then sales of bird seed will decline? I wasn't aware ALF sell bird seed though.

ALF are probably more exposed to the real estate bubble through the "First National" brand, and their finance company, which appears to be showing signs of cooling along with the general economy. There are more motivated vendor signs / mortgagee sales being marketed these days.

Back to Bird Flu, I can't see this having any material effect on the value of ALF, unless this virus morphs into a mad cow, sheep and bird flu so that ALF have to get out of selling livestock.


D_Pick are we a shareholder, note the slide seems to be holding in a very tight holding company.. [8D]

D_Pick
16-02-2006, 10:11 PM
BRICKS I'm not a shareholder yet.

Can you convince me that ALF is a good company to invest in with some compelling facts/figures? Or at least a good investment theme/story.

I like their strap line in the 2005 Annual report "We are growing quietly". The share price graph tells it all differently though, it hasn't been pretty for ALF investors for the last 10 months.

This company has many different small businesses under the Allied Farmers umbrella. It has been consistently profitable but hasn't been growing earnings at any rate to get excited about. Profit margins appear low as well.

Not sure what their long term game plan is or where they want to position themselves? If they want to be niche player then prehaps they should specialise in something. Instead they appear to be a low growth, low margin generalist. Economies of scale appears to be important in the rural industry these days.

BRICKS
17-02-2006, 09:37 AM
quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

BRICKS I'm not a shareholder yet.

Can you convince me that ALF is a good company to invest in with some compelling facts/figures? Or at least a good investment theme/story.

I like their strap line in the 2005 Annual report "We are growing quietly". The share price graph tells it all differently though, it hasn't been pretty for ALF investors for the last 10 months.

This company has many different small businesses under the Allied Farmers umbrella. It has been consistently profitable but hasn't been growing earnings at any rate to get excited about. Profit margins appear low as well.

Not sure what their long term game plan is or where they want to position themselves? If they want to be niche player then perhaps they should specialise in something. Instead they appear to be a low growth, low margin generalist. Economies of scale appears to be important in the rural industry these days.


SORRY Pick its every man for himself in this WORLD.. [8D]

sniper
17-02-2006, 05:36 PM
Why bother with this company?

It's a small player in the rural servicing industry and getting squeezed by industry consolidation by Wrightson.

It bought a sawmilling operation (?????? try making sense of that!) which is bleeding cash 3 years down the tracks.

That's why its share price has fallen ..and fallen.

BRICKS
18-02-2006, 09:26 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper

Why bother with this company?

It's a small player in the rural servicing industry and getting squeezed by industry consolidation by Wrightson.

It bought a saw milling operation (?????? try making sense of that!) which is bleeding cash 3 years down the tracks.

That's why its share price has fallen ..and fallen.


SNIPE every company has some type of value ALF is NO different and pays good Div`s,, very diverse assets, the mill will get the flick soon as they can find a BUYer the rest good solid Rural estate something not being made again its a LONG term-er and NOT for short time PLAYERS.. [8D]

sniper
18-02-2006, 11:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Well the farmers are consolidating after recent take over position taking and ALF has fallen to a low position so no better time to BUY,, but last year two former employees removed .5 million out of the till and did not tell the BOSS made him very angry so they thew them in jail but the money is still amiss but with this now behind we can look forward to a better year.. [8D]


Like to agree with you, Bricks but don't like the odds on this compny performing. NPAT for 2006 looks like $2.35m so trading on a PER of 13.9 times - with earnings outlook deteriorating. And the timber mill continues to bleed. It was bought off a receiver and back to the receiver it looks like it will go. What is ALF's expertise in running a timber mill? So far so bad.

SP was $2.35 when you first posted the above. Now it's $2.05. No hurry to buy this competitively badly placed company.

BRICKS
18-02-2006, 02:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Well the farmers are consolidating after recent take over position taking and ALF has fallen to a low position so no better time to BUY,, but last year two former employees removed .5 million out of the till and did not tell the BOSS made him very angry so they thew them in jail but the money is still amiss but with this now behind we can look forward to a better year.. [8D]


Like to agree with you, Bricks but don't like the odds on this company performing. NPAT for 2006 looks like $2.35m so trading on a PER of 13.9 times - with earnings outlook deteriorating. And the timber mill continues to bleed. It was bought off a receiver and back to the receiver it looks like it will go. What is ALF's expertise in running a timber mill? So far so bad.

SP was $2.35 when you first posted the above. Now it's $2.05. No hurry to buy this competitively badly placed company.




BRICKS did start at $2.35 just to feel the toe that's all and feel the real support is around $1.95 which could come up soon,, you are putting to much the timber mill they have quoted its pitfalls but a very small part of the big picture not many stocks in NZ this is a one to watch.. or tell me an alternate.. [8D]

sniper
18-02-2006, 02:37 PM
How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?

BRICKS
19-02-2006, 10:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?


SNIPE read your annual REPORT.. [8D]

sniper
19-02-2006, 01:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by sniper


How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?


SNIPE read your annual REPORT.. [8D]


I know the number. I am calling your bluff - let's see if you do. You make out that you are so knowledgeable about ALF.

BTW - it's not in the annual report.

BRICKS
19-02-2006, 02:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS


quote:Originally posted by sniper


How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?


SNIPE read your annual REPORT.. [8D]


I know the number. I am calling your bluff - let's see if you do. You make out that you are so knowledgeable about ALF.

BTW - it's not in the annual report.


THANKS for playing games.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
19-02-2006, 02:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


How much is tied up in the timber mill? As a %tage of shareholders'funds?

SNIPER, You ask the question, then you say you know the answer.
I think you are trying to pull a double bluff. I dont think you know the answer in the first place i am calling your bluff.
MACDUNK

sniper
19-02-2006, 02:50 PM
MacDunk,

Let's see what Bricks come up with - since he seems to think that the timber mill is but a small part of ALF.

Your call, Bricks - your bluff has been called and you are found wanting. Your credibility is on the line.

Clue - ALF bought the mill very cheap. So cheap that ALF made the classic mistake of looking at the price rather than the compatibility of the business to that of ALF. [^]

BRICKS
19-02-2006, 03:01 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


MacDunk,

Let's see what Bricks come up with - since he seems to think that the timber mill is but a small part of ALF.

Your call, Bricks - your bluff has been called and you are found wanting. Your credibility is on the line.

Clue - ALF bought the mill very cheap. So cheap that ALF made the classic mistake of looking at the price rather than the compatibility of the business to that of ALF. [^]


Sniper by name Sniper by nature play your game but first get a starter,
As dont the share because your to smarter..

sniper
19-02-2006, 04:43 PM
Enough written then by you on ALF, Bricks.

Next time, do your homework. ;)

BRICKS
19-02-2006, 07:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Enough written then by you on ALF, Bricks.

Next time, do your homework. ;)


YES SIR .. KIWI SLUG.. [8D]

Sideshow Bob
19-02-2006, 09:27 PM
quote: Originally posted by Bricks:

Sniper by name Sniper by nature play your game but first get a starter,
As dont the share because your to smarter..

???????????????????

Snow Leopard
20-02-2006, 06:43 AM
Long long time ago, in a sharetrader thread far far away there once lived amongst the many happy posters of the thread two particular posters, the king and the sharebroker.
One day the king and the sharebroker began to argue about some obscure and unimportant little thing, possibly an edge-trimmer, and the happy posters who lived in the thread said "Give it a rest, you two".
As the days went by the king and the sharebroker argued more and more and louder and louder and all the happy posters of the thread said "Will you two keep quiet, this is a very silly argument and you are ruining the peace and quiet of the thread. Indeed, we can hardly hear the sound of the Sunday lawnmowing above you two squabbling".
But still the king and the sharebroker argued with each other more and more and got louder and louder and were very nasty to each other and the happy posters of the thread said "We all wish that you would both go away", and then in a flash a magical figure appeared and said to the posters:
"Cower mere posters, for I am the ADMINISTARTOR, and I am mighty, but reasonably fair, and I am the ultimate ruler over all the threads of the world and I will grant the wish of all you happy posters and I will banish the king and the sharebroker from this world".
Suddenly a great hush descended upon the land, except for the sound of the Sunday lawnmowing, and the king and sharebroker were nowhere to be found and the happy people said "Well that's better"....

....Then one day many months later in another thread the noise of a new squabble, this time about a saw, arose.
The two posters arguing were called the bricks and the sniper.
Soon this could be heard above the sound of the Sunday lawnmowing and the happy posters who lived there said "Isn't this what happened over in that thread a long long time ago and far far away? Do you think that this is the the king and sharebroker from that thread in disguise? Will this silly argument get so loud that the mighty ADMINISTRATOR will once more descend to the world summonsed by the power of the wishes of us happy posters of this thread and will he banish them both? Let us pull up a chair, open another bottle and wait and see".

To be concluded

duncan macgregor
20-02-2006, 07:58 AM
PAPER TIGER, What a lovely fairy tale. Perhaps Brick is really only a charlie in waiting, a pretender if you like standing there with his ears flapping in the breeze. The type of person to give his princess up, and marry the evil step mother. Sniper on the other hand might be a king in disguise testing this charlie to see who can claim the title of KING DICK. MACDUNK

BRICKS
20-02-2006, 10:05 AM
THE three white mice with nothing better to to do but talk about BRICKS there words are wisdom repetitive of co**** but they have nothing better to DO,, these three are our latest to feel justice should be done except S/BoBie still looking at the invention called calender to find the name of a day,, Bricks dose not request you to write for you cant help yourselves,, POOR SNIPE just hates himself and the rest of the world so PT & SCOT person just read this as if it was not WRITTEN.. [8D]

sniper
20-02-2006, 11:18 AM
Give you guys a good steer on why ALF is not worth investing in & why Bricks hasn't got all the facts to be pushing this stock....

but .... happy to leave you be.

Ignorance is bliss.

BRICKS
20-02-2006, 11:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Give you guys a good steer on why ALF is not worth investing in & why Bricks hasn't got all the facts to be pushing this stock....

but .... happy to leave you be.

Ignorance is bliss.


WOULD be happy for you to leave so the HALF report out on FRIDAY can be read in PEACE.. [8D]

D_Pick
01-03-2006, 08:46 AM
Good luck Bricks navigating the upcoming cyclical downturn, should be a challenging second half for ALF. Fingers crossed the weather aligns with ALF's business model over the next year?

Press Release

Good weather, lower farmer confidence, weigh on Allied Farmer's first half

Benign weather and gloomy economic forecasts have combined to knock back revenues and profit at Hawera-based rural services company Allied Farmers Ltd.

Net profit after tax for the half year ending 31 December was $758,000, a drop of 50.8 per cent on the previous year's figure. Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) were $1,136,000, also a decline of 50.7% on the previous year.

Group operating revenue was $42,080,000, a fall of 8.3%. The company
declared an interim dividend of 5 cents per share, fully imputed (unchanged from last year's interim dividend).

The Chairman, John Loughlin, said while the results were disappointing, they had been expected, and signalled to the market in December.

"All companies servicing the rural sector have been affected by these
conditions. Good weather has reduced demand for farm inputs, while a drop in confidence across all farming sectors has discouraged spending.

"It is clear that the cyclical upswing enjoyed by the rural sector over the past few years has topped out." He cited a Rabobank-ACNeilsen survey showing 69% of beef and dairy farmers, and 83 per cent of sheep farmers expect economic conditions to worsen.

The tightening conditions affected the Group's Merchandise, Livestock, Real Estate and Wool divisions, but Farm Finance and rural processing had produced improved results.

Mr Loughlin said the regional operations of Waikato Farmers, Taranaki
Farmers, King Country Farmers and Manawatu Farmers remained strong, and had in some cases increased market share. He expected this to continue, in a changing trading environment.

Allied Farmers Finance had had a strong half-year, posting a 103 per cent rise in EBIT to $477,000. However, the Pine unit had continued to struggle. While results in this Division were down on the first half of last year, they were well ahead of the second half of last year. Restructuring costs also had affected results. Indications were that change initiatives and a fall in the NZ dollar would further improve the second half result.

Mr Loughlin said Allied Farmers had a solid base of good businesses, and believed the second half - traditionally a busier time for rural services companies - would produce a substantially improved result. He said the group would continue to seek opportunities to grow the scale of its businesses, in a manner that would reward shareholders.

BRICKS
23-03-2006, 09:36 AM
MITRE 10 one day PRIME FINANCE LIMITED the next this is weather proof and doubles the ALF finance biz size with diversity ,, GOOD ONE BOYS,, [8D]

BRICKS
05-04-2006, 10:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

MITRE 10 one day PRIME FINANCE LIMITED the next this is weather proof and doubles the ALF finance biz size with diversity ,, GOOD ONE BOYS,, [8D]


AS ALF seems to be heading for $2.60 shows the a better quaility stock hard to find these days as told before a good outfit other than Snipe`s saw mill which is turning around slow but will be there when needed.. Finance will up the profits other than LIVE STOCK.. [8D]

BRICKS
06-04-2006, 11:08 AM
THE takeover of PRIME FINACE is now UNCONDITIONAL and will proceed in MAY 2006 try and BUY some SHARES.. [8D]

sniper
06-04-2006, 09:21 PM
Sawmill type acquisition is the finance company. ;)

The market initially liked the sawmill too.:D

BRICKS
07-04-2006, 09:35 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Sawmill type acquisition is the finance company. ;)

The market initially liked the sawmill too.:D


THANKS for writing Snipe means action words of wisdom,, as you have been put in charge of the wee saw mill whats happening to make it come up trumps,, Finance is always a good bolt on just ask a bank on the other hand try to BUY a share good times a HEAD.. [8D]

winner69
12-06-2006, 02:10 PM
so things not going that well in ALFland .... and the sawmill seems to be the problem .... at least one of them

Snow Leopard
12-06-2006, 02:38 PM
and Prime Finance lends on cars I notice [8D]


quote:Motor Vehicle Finance (http://www.primefinance.co.nz/motorvehicles/mv_finance.php)


Want a better deal?
Whether you are buying privately or through a Registered Motor Vehicle Dealer we will tailor a deal to suit you.

Prime Finance makes your working dollar work just as hard as you do. We give everyday people access to easy finance ideas at competitive rates.

With 20 years experience in all aspects of finance, our friendly team provide a professional and prompt 7-day a week service

Talk to us today and find out how we can tailor a deal to suit you.


But no worries, heh?

Sideshow Bob
12-06-2006, 05:39 PM
A minor profit warning:

Allied farmers issues profit warning
12 June 2006

Allied Farmers has warned its forecast half-year results are likely to be $150,000 lower than the previous year.


The Hawera-based company said it now did not expect to meet its predicted full year profit. It was anticipating a profit of $2.15 million before tax, compared to $3.47m to June 30 last year.

Chairman John Loughlin said the lower profit reflected a more subdued real estate market and a "necessary but unscheduled restructuring" of its real estate division.

Allied Pine was also taking longer than expected to turn around although the lower New Zealand dollar was helping.

Other factors included increased provisioning for doubtful debts in the merchandise and pine businesses.

However, the company's livestock, wool and finance divisions had all performed well.

Allied Farmers also advised that its takeover offer for Prime Finance Limited has now been accepted by more than 98 per cent of Prime shareholders, and was now unconditional.

The addition of Prime is expected to add $1.2 million before tax to Allied's bottomline.

sniper
12-06-2006, 05:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

THE takeover of PRIME FINACE is now UNCONDITIONAL and will proceed in MAY 2006 try and BUY some SHARES..


Allied Pine is a rotten log - taking longer than expected to turn around is just another way of saying that it should never have been bought in the first place. Increased loan provisioning at Prime is probably just the beginning of more severe write-downs.

Try now and sell some shares. ;)

winner69
30-08-2006, 07:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

THE takeover of PRIME FINACE is now UNCONDITIONAL and will proceed in MAY 2006 try and BUY some SHARES..


Allied Pine is a rotten log - taking longer than expected to turn around is just another way of saying that it should never have been bought in the first place. Increased loan provisioning at Prime is probably just the beginning of more severe write-downs.

Try now and sell some shares. ;)


You called this right from the beginning sniper .... see one of the statements about the future is a 'a stemming of the losses in Allied Pine .... sounds painful

BRICKS
31-08-2006, 09:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

THE takeover of PRIME FINACE is now UNCONDITIONAL and will proceed in MAY 2006 try and BUY some SHARES..


Allied Pine is a rotten log - taking longer than expected to turn around is just another way of saying that it should never have been bought in the first place. Increased loan provisioning at Prime is probably just the beginning of more severe write-downs.

Try now and sell some shares. ;)


You called this right from the beginning sniper .... see one of the statements about the future is a 'a stemming of the losses in Allied Pine .... sounds painful




Sniper was put in charge of this bug and he has not done his job nothing new for him.. But they are making money and stated improvement is on the way still try to BUY a HOLDING if you can.. [8D]

BRICKS
03-02-2007, 11:25 AM
WELL AFL is chugging along at a lower price its down but not out, The saw mill has taken its toll with big losses but could have turned or out the door it goes along with the good finance company sub well we will all know 1st March 2007 for the Half Report.. [8D]

BRICKS
10-02-2007, 02:27 PM
Allied Farmers unite make`s $2 million Profit, that`s what the headline SAID.. [8D]

duncan macgregor
10-02-2007, 04:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Allied Farmers unite make`s $2 million Profit, that`s what the headline SAID.. [8D]
They are a bit like PGW bricks wont stick to their knitting. Farms have a very low return on capital [about 3pc] The profit is in lifestyle plus capital gain. This makes for a very good family business, but very poor business risk for absentee farmers. The russians found that out with their collective farms, it simply wont work. When times are bad the spending slows right up, ALF and PGW then suffer a big drop in custom. In good times they spend up big, whoopee the sun shines on the sp.
We are having bad times right now, ask a farmer. ALF and PGW are getting into pie in the sky stuff in the bad times, this looks like egg in the face looming,instead of doing what they do best, and riding it out like their customers. I will be back to invest later if they dont get to stupid. macdunk

BRICKS
11-02-2007, 09:12 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

Allied Farmers unite make`s $2 million Profit, that`s what the headline SAID.. [8D]
They are a bit like PGW bricks wont stick to their knitting. Farms have a very low return on capital [about 3pc] The profit is in lifestyle plus capital gain. This makes for a very good family business, but very poor business risk for absentee farmers. The russians found that out with their collective farms, it simply wont work. When times are bad the spending slows right up, ALF and PGW then suffer a big drop in custom. In good times they spend up big, whoopee the sun shines on the sp.
We are having bad times right now, ask a farmer. ALF and PGW are getting into pie in the sky stuff in the bad times, this looks like egg in the face looming,instead of doing what they do best, and riding it out like their customers. I will be back to invest later if they dont get to stupid. macdunk


THANKS for NOTHING.. [8D]

BRICKS
20-02-2008, 12:01 PM
LUCKY BRICKS jumped out @ over $2 when looking today only $1.40 and falling even with the late news that the sawmill has really gone but we now are into finance not the flavor of the month so what about the holders locked in its a big wait coming up but i feel the board needs a REVAMP..

winner69
18-11-2009, 09:10 AM
taking over (or merging) with Handover .... whats next

Stranger_Danger
18-11-2009, 09:37 AM
Surely not?

I genuinely fail to see the point of these two firms merging.

In both cases, they have huge problems to sort out. Why intermingle those problems?

Hindsight shows that these firms needed less size, less complexity - not more.

I must be "simple" but if this is for real, I am lost for words.

Aeneas
18-11-2009, 09:40 AM
18 November 2009

Allied Farmers Signs Agreement with Hanover Finance & United Finance

Allied Farmers advises that it has signed an agreement with Hanover Finance and United
Finance, which subject to satisfaction of conditions, will result in Allied Farmers
buying the finance assets of those companies in a deal worth approximately $400 million.

This significant transaction is part of a new strategy, which will see Allied Farmers
dramatically increase the size of its rural services and finance businesses.

The agreement is conditional upon both Allied Farmers shareholder approval and the
approval of Hanover and United investors. The two-step process will result in Hanover
and United investors receiving Allied Farmers ordinary shares, and Allied
Farmersacquiring the finance assets of Hanover and United.

Allied Farmers, assisted by its external advisors, have carried out detailed due
diligence on the Hanover and United assets and have built up an understanding of the risk
and return profile
associated with them.

The intention is that a large proportion of the performing assets will be transferred to
Allied Nationwide Finance, increasing the size of the balance sheet and improving capital
adequacy.

A new subsidiary of Allied Farmers will be established for holding and managing difficult
assets. In the interim this subsidiary will be lead by Allied Farmers Managing Director,
Mr Rob Alloway, until a permanent appointment is made.

Given the uncertain nature of these assets, Allied Farmers has been careful to ensure the
fairness of the transaction to both our new and existing shareholders. Forexisting
shareholders, the transaction includes an adjustment mechanism which will realign
relative shareholding as at June 2011 if the expected recoveries from the acquired assets
do not meet expectations.
Asset realisations post transaction have the potential to flow significant cash into
Allied Farmers.

This will strengthen the company’s position medium term, and should provide the company
many opportunities for growth in the rural and finance sectors.

A Notice of Meeting for a Special Meeting of Allied Farmers shareholders will be sent to
all shareholders next week, with the meeting intended to be held early December and prior
to the
meeting of Hanover and United investors which is intended to be held in mid-December.

For and on behalf of the Board
John Loughlin
Chairman
For further information please contact:
John Loughlin
(027) 542 2405 OR Klaus Sorensen
(09) 3071722
(029) 2322576

Stranger_Danger
18-11-2009, 10:21 AM
Does acquiring this crap impact on Allied's government guarantee?

Does the government guarantee then apply to the crap they acquire?

If yes (surely not), why doesn't an anarchist acquire a listed shell, then acquire every finance company, then let it blow up, just for fun?

BRICKS
18-11-2009, 10:23 AM
EVER since ALF directors bought the timber mill thinking they could turn a loss maker into a goer along the way lost another million, so they went into finance just to fall on there head again now this as BRICKS has said before this mob love self destruction but they are going to pay for it in shares more like WALLPAPER..

Doyle
18-11-2009, 10:43 AM
I wouldn't hold your breath on this one. Requires 75% approval from Hanover depositors. Alot of them are the sort of people who consider the sharemarket to be as inherently risky as gambling. A little bit of research on allied farmers share price history will be all thats required to turn most them off.

This whole exercise will turn out to be a white elephant, frankly don't know why AF bothered surely they can find some better finance assets around going cheap. All the publicity surrounding Hanover, and their board consistently doing the best to overprice fair value on dismal assets, will mean if this goes through it could only end up as a raw deal for AF shareholders.

Doyle
18-11-2009, 10:51 AM
Does acquiring this crap impact on Allied's government guarantee?

Does the government guarantee then apply to the crap they acquire?

If yes (surely not), why doesn't an anarchist acquire a listed shell, then acquire every finance company, then let it blow up, just for fun?

Initially my thoughts are surely not as well, but of course it won't affect the guarantee at all. By doing this ALF will take hanovers liabilities and turn them into equity. In fact depending in the structure of the deal could improve ALF credit rating. Rediculous I know. The more I look at this Idea the more I think what are ALF thinking? Hard to say from a Hanover point of view until you see the detail but it's basically choosing between the lesser of two evils. I'm thinking this is ALF but have no doubt that Hanover depositors will stick with current management.

I wonder if Hotchin and Watson get shares as part of the deal? or get to reneg on the extra 20 million that they would likely have to provide under the current deal? Just the sort of incentive these boys would need to start promoting this deal as in the best interests of depositors.

Doyle
18-11-2009, 11:37 AM
Update that,
reportedly the final deal will be worth apporximately78 cents in the dollar for hanover investors, what a disgrace. Allied finance paying 78 cents for assets that PWC valued at a maximum of 82 cents over five years. Take that 82 cents and discount it you get 60 cents. Thats the most Hanover investors should be paid and even thats favourable. 70 cents is the latest prediction from the men with the most rose tinted glasses available. 51 cents discounted. In reality more than investors should get given the absurdness of managements previous prediction.
(4 years 8% discount rate, probably should be more given the risks involved)

I guess there needs to be some accounting for the fact that shares arn't cash, so Hanover investors should probably being issued at around 60 cents. That would be a fair price probably a little to much.

But 78 cents well you would just about have to be functionally innumerate to turn that down. My bet is they will anyway.

This whole thing is a disgrace for ALF, a collapse over half the finance sector and this is the best deal they can find.

winner69
19-11-2009, 06:58 PM
Yestredays story was only 900 million odd new shares would need to be issued ..... after todays action now ovwe 1.3 billion new shares

Interesting report from ALF this announcement about all this ... the scenarios only went down to an ALF share price of 30 cents

And they clarified the 78 cents Hangover investors might get back includes the 6 cents already paid ... so there is only another 72 cents in it for them if things go to plan.

And then explaining the 'bonus share' thingie this statement The adjustment works simply but the formula is complicated. ..... too right if what followed is just an indication

But suppose this sort of carry on happens if a $13 million company gets the printing presses out and issues a billion plus shares to buy distressed assets that one day may be worth something

Good on them for trying .... nothing vnetured nothing gained .... but makes a bit of mockery of the state of the NZX when such a deal propels ALF into the top 50 .... and the directors than take delight in saying that insto will then be foreced to buy the ALF shares as they are dumped by the Hungover investors ..... but then again they prob didn't do the sums of 1.3 billion by 10 cents would take it out of the Top 50

winner69
19-11-2009, 07:03 PM
Good old solid NZ (iconic ... must be?) firm .... Allied Farmers Ltd, which celebrates its 120th anniversary this Friday at the Hawera A & P show with the launch of the company history: ‘Too Old To Be Secrets Now”, today outlined a new company strategy designed to transform the historic Taranaki based farm services

Suppose need all the hype they can generate
group.

Balance
19-11-2009, 07:44 PM
Extremely good deal for ALF if ALF can get deal done.

Could be terminal if deal not done.

Watch and read the independent appraisal report carefully.

ekman
22-11-2009, 04:43 PM
Gpg in their 2009 interim report has listed a 4.1% holding in Allied Farmers, can anything be read into this?

troyvdh
22-11-2009, 05:35 PM
having read your posts Balance...the more the negative the better ....eh.....yea....

Balance
22-11-2009, 08:09 PM
having read your posts Balance...the more the negative the better ....eh.....yea....

Read carefully. I wrote - "There are some posters on this site you keep an eye on. The more negative they get, the better."

As for GPG - yet another disastrous share market pick by the gurus.

troyvdh
22-11-2009, 09:54 PM
....dear balance....I did.....

winner69
23-11-2009, 12:26 PM
At this rate ALF will be printing 2 billion shares for the hungover assets

Anna Naum
23-11-2009, 12:27 PM
At this rate ALF will be printing 2 billion shares for the hungover assets

2 billion shares in a company with ZERO real value still = ZERO

winner69
23-11-2009, 12:57 PM
You'd think they would be supporting the shareprice ..... strongly ..... somehow

Maybe a bit of a spec at the moment .... just maybe

COLIN
23-11-2009, 01:07 PM
Maybe a bit of a spec at the moment .... just maybe

You guys are welcome to it! This one's definitely not for me. Just think of the precipitous drop in the sp there will be once Mum and Dad investors get their hands on the ALF scrip - there will be such a mad stampede for the exits that it will trigger enough of an earthquake to register on the Richter scale. That's if the scheme ever got enough votes, which seems an impossibility to me.

winner69
23-11-2009, 02:12 PM
You guys are welcome to it! This one's definitely not for me. Just think of the precipitous drop in the sp there will be once Mum and Dad investors get their hands on the ALF scrip - there will be such a mad stampede for the exits that it will trigger enough of an earthquake to register on the Richter scale. That's if the scheme ever got enough votes, which seems an impossibility to me.

Thinking of the time leading up to the vote ... you'd think they want the shareprice around 35 cents or something so for a few thou they could get it up there ..... eh?

Agree once the shares are issued anything could happen .... can't imagine many gloating down at the coffee mornings hey i have a 100 thousand ALF shares .....

Doyle
23-11-2009, 02:59 PM
Could present a good oppertunity further down the track though. Finance, is a bloody profitable business. Don't forget if It goes ahead then it will enter the top 50, and institutions will end up buying it. This whole thing is a disgrace and I would doubt it will go through, but if it does and the shares start going at a fire sale I would proably be interested.

Anna Naum
23-11-2009, 03:04 PM
Could present a good oppertunity further down the track though. Finance, is a bloody profitable business. Don't forget if It goes ahead then it will enter the top 50, and institutions will end up buying it. This whole thing is a disgrace and I would doubt it will go through, but if it does and the shares start going at a fire sale I would proably be interested.

Its time as a top 50 company, should this deal go through, will be short lived. Zero + Zero = Zero

Balance
24-11-2009, 07:52 AM
Its time as a top 50 company, should this deal go through, will be short lived. Zero + Zero = Zero

You are being too harsh.

If Hanover's debenture holders swap their loans for equity, the game changes.

Just about anyone will be better than Eric and Mark.

Bloody disgrace but hi, Hanover's investors were queuing up to give their money to Eric and Mark to use. Good on them for using the money, risk-free!

whatsup
24-11-2009, 09:12 AM
You are being too harsh.

If Hanover's debenture holders swap their loans for equity, the game changes.

Just about anyone will be better than Eric and Mark.

Bloody disgrace but hi, Hanover's investors were queuing up to give their money to Eric and Mark to use. Good on them for using the money, risk-free!

What you guys/guysses dont realise is the property DEALERS sell to other property DEALERS at a ever higher price -until the last holding the DEAL dies - this is what is happening now. With the finance companies dead there is no more money to lend to DEALERS and so the property business is now in the hands of the major banks who will only lend to property INVESTORS who have considerable % of their own money in the deal.
Gone are the days when a dealer can get 90---100% loan money to finance fantasy!!

Until there is a clearance of all the rubbish property that is on the books of these dead finance companies there will be NO repayment to the Poor people who advanced debenture money to these leaches in the first place, IMHO debenture holders will be lucky to get back .50 in the dollar in who knows how many years time.
The really sad thing that has happened is IMHO these finance companies were really about transferring wealth as much as everything.

Balance
24-11-2009, 10:34 AM
What you guys/guysses dont realise is the property DEALERS sell to other property DEALERS at a ever higher price -until the last holding the DEAL dies - this is what is happening now. With the finance companies dead there is no more money to lend to DEALERS and so the property business is now in the hands of the major banks who will only lend to property INVESTORS who have considerable % of their own money in the deal.
Gone are the days when a dealer can get 90---100% loan money to finance fantasy!!

Until there is a clearance of all the rubbish property that is on the books of these dead finance companies there will be NO repayment to the Poor people who advanced debenture money to these leaches in the first place, IMHO debenture holders will be lucky to get back .50 in the dollar in who knows how many years time.
The really sad thing that has happened is IMHO these finance companies were really about transferring wealth as much as everything.

What's sad about it?

Capitalism at work. Dog eats dog. Big fish eats small fish.

troyvdh
24-11-2009, 10:56 AM
....Balance...your postings intrigue me....you appear to come from every direction.... am curious to know your investments and investment strategy.

Balance
24-11-2009, 11:26 AM
....Balance...your postings intrigue me....you appear to come from every direction.... am curious to know your investments and investment strategy.

No particular strategy. Let's just exchange views and have fun.

Remember that this is a sharetrader forum and you get all odds and sorts.

Re Hanover - Eric and Mark are totally beneath contempt and what they have done is immoral, despicable and without any redemption. But, Hanover investors only have themselves to blame.

Bobcat.
15-02-2010, 10:14 AM
This old dog may be twitching a bit off 10c - worth a punt for a 10% gain in under a week?

Silverlight
15-02-2010, 04:05 PM
See attached regarding the staged Index entry of ALF, effective 22 Feb, into the NZX50.

Bobcat.
16-02-2010, 12:56 PM
The NZX announcement (as posted by Silverlight yesterday) has sure given this stock's sp a boost. I was expecting a bit more resistance at 11c but it looks like we're about to see it rocket through. Buyers have gobbled up the 1.5m that were sitting there on offer earlier today. I think I'll just hang on to my holding a few days longer....

Next resistance looks to be @13c then 18c then nothing till mid 20s. Is 100% gain before the second (tranche) increase of index shares on March 22 too ambitious? With today's performance, perhaps not. I'm holding.

Ekrub
17-02-2010, 08:17 AM
If any Allied Farmers execs read this message board, could I as a new shareholder ask for the website to be updated?

BRICKS
17-02-2010, 08:37 AM
If any Allied Farmers execs read this message board, could I as a new shareholder ask for the website to be updated?

GO to the website use there contact position and just TELL them..

peat
17-02-2010, 08:58 AM
can I just clarify something here please.

Has this company now entered the SX50 because it issued a huge number of shares which although barely above penny-dreadful status make its capitalisation large enough to qualify?
And because of this some passive index funds , perhaps KiwiSaver funds too depending on their model and strategy, will now be obliged to own this company.

If true - oh dear.

Dr_Who
17-02-2010, 09:01 AM
can I just clarify something here please.

Has this company now entered the SX50 because it issued a huge number of shares which although barely above penny-dreadful status make its capitalisation large enough to qualify?
And because of this some passive index funds , perhaps KiwiSaver funds too depending on their model and strategy, will now be obliged to own this company.

If true - oh dear.

YES and YES

...and you wonder why the smart money never invest in managed funds?

Now.. if only I can short ALF. :D

peat
17-02-2010, 09:14 AM
it isnt even offered on CMC so cant long or short it there.

not that I would be wanting to short it either.... this (imo farcical) situation gives the share some reasonable chance of support

imagine if the share price does go up it might get into the top 10 :confused:

Silverlight
17-02-2010, 10:52 AM
Hi Peat,

As posted on previous page, ALF go into the 50 on 22 Feb.

If I go off the mcaps for the 50 I posted on the "How will the Allied Farmers deal work" thread, ALF has about a market cap of 200 -220m. This puts it around the same free float value as PRC or PPL.

If we look at one of the index funds they hold around $210k PRC & $310k PPL.

So ALF is included in two tranches, so one index fund come monday that tracks the 50 will be looking to buy $100k -$150k ALF, or about 1.3m shares in ALF.

Times that by about 10 funds across NZ doing the same, some may underweight it, so maybe up to 10m ALF shares.

With 1.9b shares on issue, the funds will not own a whole lot, in my view.

Bobcat.
17-02-2010, 11:08 AM
So ALF is included in two tranches, so one index fund come monday that tracks the 50 will be looking to buy $100k -$150k ALF, or about 1.3m shares in ALF.

Times that by about 10 funds across NZ doing the same, some may underweight it, so maybe up to 10m ALF shares.

With 1.9b shares on issue, the funds will not own a whole lot, in my view.

That may be true SL, but meanwhile even just 10m on the bid side (after many Hanover-based share recipients and other sellers have already sold out their holdings) puts a lot of upward pressure on the sp...until at least the 3rd week of March...IMHO.

I'm holding, and if it slips under 11c again may buy some more (for a short-term play). This dog is back on its legs.

Silverlight
17-02-2010, 11:17 AM
Most Hanover holders have sold their shares? I think that is quite incorrect.

ALF issued 1,914,598,153 shares to Hanover holders. Only 68,806,003 shares have traded since the 21 December issuance date.

That leaves over 1.84 billion shares or 94% of the company still owned by Hanover holders.

Bobcat.
17-02-2010, 11:39 AM
Most Hanover holders have sold their shares? I think that is quite incorrect.



Read my post, SL. I did state "many" not "most". Hanover shareholders of ALF have had two months to sell out, and I'm suggesting that most holders who wanted to sell would have done so by now (as evidenced by the solid support base at 10c and now at 11c).

BTW, ALF is @ 11.5c and climbing - 13% above the price it was when I posted a recommended buy just a couple of days ago. Ride the wave whilst it's growing and it's almost certain you'll be in the money.

Discl: still holding.

Crispy
17-02-2010, 11:48 AM
Read my post, SL. I did state "many" not "most". Hanover shareholders of ALF have had two months to sell out, and I'm suggesting that most holders who wanted to sell would have done so by now (as evidenced by the solid support base at 10c and now at 11c).

BTW, ALF is @ 11.5c and climbing - 13% above the price it was when I posted a recommended buy just a couple of days ago. Ride the wave whilst it's growing and it's almost certain you'll be in the money.

Discl: still holding.

I agree all those desperate to get out all ready have.

I doubt most of the other holders watch the share price closely, many may not realise it has gone up for a week or two.

Many Hanover shareholders are likely to be waiting for the share price to get up to 20cents, but that’s just my speculation.

Bobcat.
17-02-2010, 11:54 AM
I doubt most of the other holders watch the share price closely, many may not realise it has gone up for a week or two.
.

Crisp - the sp has only been rising this week. Check out its graph. It's not too late to buy into this one - you could wait for some weakness but I'm not expecting that to show until at least 13c, and I doubt that will last long - there's too much upward pressure due to what's required of Passive Fund managers up to March 22.

Crispy
17-02-2010, 12:00 PM
I am already in.

I ment after the price has gone up, it will be a while before most of the hanover investors realise. Sorry I was not very clear.

777
17-02-2010, 12:03 PM
Many Hannover investors have probably never owned a share in their lives and are unsure how to go about selling them.

Bobcat.
17-02-2010, 12:05 PM
Many Hannover investors have probably never owned a share in their lives and are unsure how to go about selling them.
God forbid they get nervous and rely a broker for advice. IMHO, they should hold...which also suits me fine (and any other sharetrader holder).

Silverlight
19-02-2010, 09:10 AM
Down 11% today, someone sold 1m at the open.

A lot of sellers have come onto the market at giddy heights of 12.5 cents.


Qty Bid
100000 0.109
60000 0.108
10000 0.107
100000 0.106
50000 0.105


Offer Qty
0.115 239178
0.12 136615
0.123 226955
0.124 132784
0.125 339388
0.126 116951

BRICKS
19-02-2010, 09:35 AM
Down 11% today, someone sold 1m at the open.

A lot of sellers have come onto the market at giddy heights of 12.5 cents.


Qty Bid
100000 0.109
60000 0.108
10000 0.107
100000 0.106
50000 0.105


Offer Qty
0.115 239178
0.12 136615
0.123 226955
0.124 132784
0.125 339388
0.126 116951

THIS is junk bond material with millions trapped in so when any sort of movement is going to attract moves in zillions there is NO quick money in this JUNK..

shawsie
19-02-2010, 10:41 AM
A couple more observations on "mosts"

Most exHanovers do not need the money to cover debt, and have gone through the bereavement process over their former wealth already.

Most exHanover shares will be part of inheritances in the next 20 years, for as long as ALF is solvent

Most exHanover shares will be sold by said inheritors for next to nothing, or be part of the gnarliest receivership disbursement of the century.

Bobcat.
19-02-2010, 11:36 AM
Hard to tell if getting into the NZX50 was just wishful thinking on the part of ALF management, or a balls up by NZX!

"Allied Farmers Limited (ALF:NZX) has today received an email from NZX
advising that it has reversed an earlier advice that its shares would be
included in the NZX50 Index.

On Monday of this week the company received an email from NZX advising that
its shares were to be included in the NZX50 and were advised that the market
would be informed shortly. Subsequently that was included in a memo sent out
by NZX to subscribers of the Market Indexation Memorandum Service.

We understand that this memorandum saw a number of institutions acquire
shares in Allied Farmers Limited and the effect of this was to see the share
price rise.

This morning the Company received an email reversing that earlier advice and
a new Market Indexation Memorandum has been sent to subscribers of that
service. This has seen Allied Farmers shares fall by over 10%.

Allied Farmers Limited has requested an explanation of this reversal from
NZX. From our advice and our own modelling we are at a loss to see why Allied
Farmers shares on all known criteria should not be in the index immediately.
By our modelling Allied Farmers Shares would have easily entered the NZX50.

Allied Farmers will keep the market informed on correspondence from the NZX
in relation to this issue. "

peat
19-02-2010, 01:31 PM
NZX must have read my post ;)

hard to understand that this is a subjective decision. surely there are fixed criteria and you're either in, or not.

according to the nzx website the NZX50 is defined as :

The NZX 50 comprises the securities of the top 50 companies listed on the NZSX Market by free float market capitalisation. The free float is determined by excluding blocks of shares greater than 20% and blocks between 5% and 20%, which are considered strategic.

Silverlight
19-02-2010, 02:41 PM
There are also liquidity threshold requirements that a company must meet to be included, measured by shares traded versus number on issue as a %.

Rubicon fell out of the 50 in 2008 because it failed to meet the liquidity requirements.

Dr_Who
20-02-2010, 07:44 AM
YES and YES

...and you wonder why the smart money never invest in managed funds?

Now.. if only I can short ALF. :D

Market stunned by NZX flip-flop
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10627322

AMR
20-02-2010, 07:58 AM
First Richina and now this. No wonder New Zealanders prefer housing.

CJ
20-02-2010, 09:22 AM
Market stunned by NZX flip-flop
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10627322
How does Weldon expect M&D to have confidence in the market. At least this error has probably effected the institutions but it shows how their 2 teir information systems favour the big boys.

Those that knew it was to enter the index received a 20% gain in two days and it would have gone higher but for their flip flop.

moimoi
22-02-2010, 01:17 PM
not only that...but according to the article in the Herald ALF was in possession of clearly price sensitive information about the inclusion on the Monday and didn't disclose it.

They were happy to disclose their nose out of joint on the Friday tho.

It also begs the question of what other services the NZX operates to benefit of instituitions to the deteriment of everybody else.

cowboy country!

Contrarian
22-02-2010, 05:32 PM
Gidday
The information was distributed by f*#kknuckles at NZX to "market participants" I sure didn't get it, I suppose my megabucks in NZX companies ,incl ALF isn't "Participation"

Oh well off to the IRD FIF regime for a bit of light relief (not)

blackcap
23-02-2010, 07:14 AM
Gidday
The information was distributed by f*#kknuckles at NZX to "market participants" I sure didn't get it, I suppose my megabucks in NZX companies ,incl ALF isn't "Participation"

Oh well off to the IRD FIF regime for a bit of light relief (not)

echo your sentiments contrarian and its no wonder NZ is seen as a place to avoid..... aaahhhh it makes me want to pull out my hair sometimes. Having seen how it can be done and how it is done in NZ. Its just a disgrace.

Silverlight
23-02-2010, 09:43 AM
Most if not all brokers would have had this update on the Monday. I can get it off my broker, as well as research reports when they release them. I think its kind of amusing that Fran O'sullivan said " big players to make a killing at the expense of 'mums and dads' shareholders."

If big players were buying and pushing the price higher with the index info, and then the price dropped back to 11 cents, didn't the big players get screwed? And the little guys win as they sold there shares off higher?

There are probably some pretty annoyed people in the fund management arena I'd say.

CJ
23-02-2010, 09:58 AM
Most if not all brokers would have had this update on the Monday. I can get it off my broker, as well as research reports when they release them. I think its kind of amusing that Fran O'sullivan said " big players to make a killing at the expense of 'mums and dads' shareholders."

If big players were buying and pushing the price higher with the index info, and then the price dropped back to 11 cents, didn't the big players get screwed? And the little guys win as they sold there shares off higher?

There are probably some pretty annoyed people in the fund management arena I'd say.NZX has stuffed up on two fronts:

1. annoy big boys by changing thier mind
2. annoying M&D by showing the two teired structure.

If 1. didn't happen, would it be such an issue in the media?? Buy doing both 1 and 2, hopefully something will be done about 2 but I think it is unlikely.

Silverlight
23-02-2010, 10:28 AM
Isn't it the companies responsibility to release information to the market? And in both cases didn't NZX email ALF about the inclusion and drop out? Therfore is it not ALF's responsibility to inform shareholders?

I also disagree that it's a two tiered structure. Investing is 20 tiered structure, you get info where you can.

Are the broker valuations been posted on the FBU thread insider info? Is the research on the BLT thread about potential sales and future profits insider info?

Agree I doubt this would be such a ruckus if the people who got the run around in this situation were not the funds, funnily enough it might have been NZX's own index funds :p

Bobcat.
23-02-2010, 10:41 AM
Did anyone else notice that ALF found a lot of support at 10.5. And there was a lot of downward pressure on the price yesterday. Someone is still buying. I suppose that it could be a funds manager who is just a bit slow pulling orders and getting out of the bath after NZX pulled the plug.

Or...maybe, there really is a bottom in the 10c to 10.5c range that this dog can be traded off ???

CJ
23-02-2010, 01:41 PM
Or someone buying 'cheap' for when/if it does ever enter the index. Based on the NZX comments, it is only a matter of time isn't it?

Balance
24-02-2010, 07:22 AM
Must have been a lot of buying by institutions to play the indexing game. If the turnover drops away, NZX will have a good reason not to include in index.

winner69
26-02-2010, 10:57 AM
Frontpage headline in the NBR today

Hanover assets worse than Allied thought

Bugger ... the NBR is plastic wrapped and it was hard to read the full story .... and I didn't want to fork out the $10 to buy it

winner69
27-02-2010, 07:53 AM
Folded a bit of the plastic back and appaarently all will be revealed Monday when ALF do their half yearly

AS such some things need a full expnantion and things need 'to be valued correctly'

Balance
27-02-2010, 08:31 AM
Frontpage headline in the NBR today

Hanover assets worse than Allied thought

Bugger ... the NBR is plastic wrapped and it was hard to read the full story .... and I didn't want to fork out the $10 to buy it

Sensationalism.

Article says that ALF is finding some negatives and some positives since November - working through the books and all will be revealed when they report.

So what's new?

Silverlight
01-03-2010, 04:09 PM
Allied Farmers Announces Half Year Result

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSEALF/2010/327183/NZSEALF-115241.pdf

https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSEALF/2010/327183/NZSEALF-115242.pdf


NTA works out at roughly 7.44 cents per share.


A 578m
L 407m
Intangibles 19.7m
Deferred Tax 6.3m

1,952,294,858 shares on issue

Lizard
01-03-2010, 04:26 PM
Wow, that's kind of magical! The way they just made $220m worth of Hanover assets disappear off the balance sheet without even having to declare it as a loss...

Morpheus
01-03-2010, 07:36 PM
So, the Hanover assets were worth north of $500m, then $400m in December, and now they are worth $175m. Can someone explain to me again why Allied shareholders voted in favour of the deal???
A key quote from Alloway in the NBR article: "Anything we find inside any loan file ... we will immediately bring in whatever authority necessary to make sure that its investigated and any necessary actions are taken."

BRICKS
03-03-2010, 12:37 PM
THIS is junk bond material with millions trapped in so when any sort of movement is going to attract moves in zillions there is NO quick money in this JUNK..

WHEN everone was back at @ 11cents saying great now 7.9 cents hands up whos buying only lost 30% you can lose
heaps on these penny DREADFULS..

Vtrader
03-03-2010, 07:12 PM
For my own part, as a beginner and all that...
Lesson well reinforced is to make your own actions, and folly to follow others
My hand is up, but only once. V.

Balance
05-03-2010, 12:07 PM
Sadly for Hanover depositors, looks like it's a complete write off with Kawarau Falls - with more to come.

There's still Jacks' Point, 3 Mile project and Matarangi.

Queenstown project now fully in receivership
By MARTA STEEMAN - The Press Last updated 05:00 05/03/2010
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The last two stages of the ambitious $2 billion Kawarau Falls Station hotel and apartment development in Queenstown have been placed in receivership.

United States high risk lender Fortress Credit Corporation, the first mortgagee of stage two and stage three, called in receivers Grant Thornton for Peninsula Road, owned by Auckland developer Nigel McKenna, on Tuesday. Peninsula Road owns the site of stage two and three of the huge development.

Stage one was placed in receivership last May. The receivers of stage one, KordaMentha, continued with the hotel and apartment development, which has since had $64 million poured into it. Stage one's first mortgagee BOSI (Bank of Scotland International) was owed $180m by February, excluding interest owed since the receivership.

Stage two and three creditors are expected to be due more than $100m.

Stage two second mortgagee Allied Farmers, which bought Hanover Finance and its loans late last year, wrote down Hanover's finance assets this week by $99m.

Allied Farmers managing director Rob Alloway said yesterday most of that was related to the Kawarau development, which Hanover lent on.

"We don't think our chances for recovery are very high at all."

The Kawarau project was to have eventually included a conference centre, four hotels, and apartments.

minimoke
05-03-2010, 01:01 PM
Sadly for Hanover depositors, looks like it's a complete write off with Kawarau Falls - with more to come.


And no announcement from ALF. Surely they have an obligation to update the market on this news - especially since there are still trades around the $0.077 mark

Logen Ninefingers
05-03-2010, 01:25 PM
Allied overstated the value of the assets to get the deal done, a couple of months later the value of the assets has halved and is heading farther south. The Allied shareholders should be very angry about the way they were duped.

Balance
05-03-2010, 01:42 PM
Allied overstated the value of the assets to get the deal done, a couple of months later the value of the assets has halved and is heading farther south. The Allied shareholders should be very angry about the way they were duped.

They* must take some of the blame too. First they put money into Hanover. Then they voted for the moratorium. Then they voted for the Allied deal.

Along the way, there were plenty of warnings. I was at the moratorium meeting and Bruce Sheppard was shouted down by a few of the depositors! They were so scared of the 'public' knowing what a basket case Hanover was!!!!!!

* excludes those who voted against and who were advised by commissioned advisors.

minimoke
05-03-2010, 01:52 PM
Allied overstated the value of the assets to get the deal done,
Anyone with any idea of what their exposure to Kawararau Stages 2 and 3 is. It also seems some of the value of Stage 1 is based on the completion of 2 & 3 so there might be further impacts there.

Again I have no sympathy for the Allied holders (like Balance - those that voted "yes"). Hotchin and Watson are very skilled operators but the warning flags were there. The Hanover investors will be left wondering how things go full circle. Back at the Moratorium they were offered recievership and through various machinations they have still ended up there. This tiem round though they are also bringing down ALF holders.

Logen Ninefingers
05-03-2010, 02:08 PM
Talk about toxic loans and toxic assets!!
Hopefully karma catches up with Watson and Hotchin. Watson seems to be the oily charmer who's happy living the high life thousands of miles from the melt-down, Hotchin's the balding fat-faced pig-eyed weasel ensconsed in his oversized montronsous edifice to his own vanity and greed.

minimoke
05-03-2010, 02:21 PM
... Watson seems to be the oily charmer who's happy living the high life thousands of miles from the melt-down, Hotchin's the balding fat-faced pig-eyed weasel ensconsed in his oversized montronsous edifice to his own vanity and greed.
Now, now. Thats a bit harsh isn't it. When finance compnaies were burning what did Hanover investors do - give their money to H/W

Hanover investors had the option to open up H/W accounts at the time of the Moratorium by placing Hanover into Recievership. They declined that opportunity.

They could have got H/W to cough up $20m of personal cash - if they had held out on the Moratorium. They decleined that opportunity.

There was another potential recievership and exposing of H/W as part of the ALF deal. They declined that opportunity.

H/W got to where they are today because thats what their investors allowed them to do. It is the investors who voted H/W's life style with cash and hands each step of the way.

Balance
05-03-2010, 04:19 PM
And 5 Mile has just been put into receivership.

Ouch.

minimoke
05-03-2010, 04:27 PM
Sneaky buggers - let the market know just after its closed. No doubt time to give their mates a chance with a bit of a semi decent exit price.

Logen Ninefingers
05-03-2010, 04:48 PM
Now, now. Thats a bit harsh isn't it. When finance compnaies were burning what did Hanover investors do - give their money to H/W

Hanover investors had the option to open up H/W accounts at the time of the Moratorium by placing Hanover into Recievership. They declined that opportunity.

They could have got H/W to cough up $20m of personal cash - if they had held out on the Moratorium. They decleined that opportunity.

There was another potential recievership and exposing of H/W as part of the ALF deal. They declined that opportunity.

H/W got to where they are today because thats what their investors allowed them to do. It is the investors who voted H/W's life style with cash and hands each step of the way.

Why did the investors do that? Because H/W asked them to trust them. And they did. Fools? I guess so. Because you can't trust anyone, because everyone's just out for themselves, because everyone will smile at you and lie and lie. Is that what we believe?

Balance
05-03-2010, 06:26 PM
Why did the investors do that? Because H/W asked them to trust them. And they did. Fools? I guess so. Because you can't trust anyone, because everyone's just out for themselves, because everyone will smile at you and lie and lie. Is that what we believe?

No. Just those who have a track record of looking only after themselves.

Dr_Who
05-03-2010, 07:12 PM
5 cents on monday?


Why did the investors do that? Because H/W asked them to trust them. And they did. Fools? I guess so. Because you can't trust anyone, because everyone's just out for themselves, because everyone will smile at you and lie and lie. Is that what we believe?

It is truely a very sad world when we have come to this. Not all people are tainted bad. I personally know a number of very nice people.

Enumerate
07-03-2010, 08:53 AM
Brian Gaynor offers his deep insight:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=10630196&pnum=0

I would suggest that ALF shareholders should consider the competence of their directors in arranging and recommending such a value destroying deal.

Further, I would suggest the NZX change the listing code from ALF to ARF

Balance
07-03-2010, 11:17 AM
Brian Gaynor offers his deep insight:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=10630196&pnum=0

I would suggest that ALF shareholders should consider the competence of their directors in arranging and recommending such a value destroying deal.

Further, I would suggest the NZX change the listing code from ALF to ARF

Hmmmm. Where was he when they were taking money off the public with abandon?

Too busy telling NZers we should be following Ireland!!!!!

Anna Naum
07-03-2010, 04:18 PM
Hmmmm. Where was he when they were taking money off the public with abandon?

Too busy telling NZers we should be following Ireland!!!!!

Good old Brian, always has 20/20 vision when looking in his rear view mirror.

macduffy
07-03-2010, 06:32 PM
Good old Brian, always has 20/20 vision when looking in his rear view mirror.

I think that's a little unfair on Gaynor.

He's been a long-time critic of the poor regulation of the NZ finance/broking scene as anyone who knew him since his early years as a shareboker in Wellington in the seventies would testify. Not exactly welcomed into the establishment!

We can't expect him to be name-specific in his criticisms - unless of course we want to first indemnify him against legal actions - but readers of his columns over the years would have been left in no doubt as to his views on the potential problems in the finance company sector and the shortcomings of NZ markets in general.

Dr_Who
07-03-2010, 07:31 PM
Someone mentioned to me this statement once upon a time ...... "Sleep with dogs and you will eventually get fleas".

Allied shock at Hanover loan pardons
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3414421/Allied-shock-at-Hanover-loan-pardons

percy
07-03-2010, 08:05 PM
[QUOTE=Dr_Who;295982]Someone mentioned to me this statement once upon a time ...... "Sleep with dogs and you will eventually get fleas".

You should have listened to them!!!!

winner69
18-03-2010, 07:16 PM
ALF (or at least Allied Finance) have spent some of their hard earned cash in getting the naming rights for the Basin Reserve, home of NZ cricket

As a gesture of goodwill in making ex Hanover investors life miserable maybe they should do a deal with NZCC that if you produce evidence you are a ALF shareholder you get free admittance to Aussie test starting tomorrow

Ooops ... with tens of thousands of shareholders the ground could get to overflowing pretty quick ..... but I guess with only a few thousand paying guests anyway there would be more than enough room for all

Maybe a banner competition as well .... as long as you put the ALF logo on it the banner somewhere you qualify .... prize could be another 1000 ALF shares

Would a banner like 'Wish I had been screwed by Lara instead of by Hotchin' win ... or wouldn't Michael understand the full meaning

Any other banners I could use

minimoke
19-03-2010, 08:20 AM
Any other banners I could use
Watson's at ALf / Whosin Bingle

Alan3285
23-03-2010, 09:33 AM
I've been watching ALF since December 2009 when the Hanover deal was finalised.

The price has been fairly stable for most of the period, with initial support at 10c+ then, after the NZX announcement 'debacle', around 7.5c.

However, it has been drifting down, and based on nothing more than gut feeling (which probably translates into effectively a momentum analysis), it looks to me like it is heading down to a little less than 6c / share then stabilising there for a while.


I am not getting into ALF at this point as it looks like it will be cheaper within a reasonably short time, but I have no idea longer term.

What are your thoughts?

Alan.

Dr_Who
23-03-2010, 09:38 AM
I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.

Alan3285
23-03-2010, 10:46 AM
I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.

At this point I can't quite see it hitting 5c / share in the next two months - I'd guess 5.5 to 6.0c up to end of May 2010, but that is just a guess of course.

What timeframe are you talking about for 5c / share?

I could say it will hit $10 / share and never be wrong - as long as I don't say when it will get there... :-)


Alan.

Dr_Who
23-03-2010, 11:08 AM
Sorry mate, I dont have a crystal ball. I wish I did. LOL

There is a good tarot card reading at Victoria Park market.:p

Alan3285
23-03-2010, 11:39 AM
Sorry mate, I dont have a crystal ball. I wish I did. LOL

There is a good tarot card reading at Victoria Park market.:p


No worries - Just wondering if you had any real idea, or it was just something you were floating out there.

I do predict $10 / share by the way :D


Alan.

minimoke
23-03-2010, 12:00 PM
What are your thoughts?

Alan.
Support at $0.070 now seems to have broken and its trending down. More punters reckon they can get in at $0.06 so that will be the next barrier. I reckon that can be breached hit in the next month. From there I reckon its still down hill. The full extent of the toxic debts still has to be worked out and the Budget may have some impact on the value of some assets. There are still a few Finance Companies looking shaky and this sector needs to do more to get investor confidence. Rural sector also looking shaky (rural sales dropping, values dropping?, debt exposures/tightening credit, NZ$) so its probaly more cautious / steady rather than feeling bullish.

Closed today at $0.064 (down to a new low)

Silverlight
24-03-2010, 10:50 AM
Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.

minimoke
24-03-2010, 11:01 AM
Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.
So they probably bought at $0.10 - $0.12 for a doubling in holding and halving (? now at $0.62) in value. If they want to sell they may be out of luck - theres only demand for 1.3m at the moment. And 500k are at $0.05 or less.

J R Ewing
24-03-2010, 12:29 PM
Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.

Nice to see that they put our ACC levies to such good use

Silverlight
24-03-2010, 12:42 PM
I don't believe this to be a negative as you see it, I think it was quite positive. ACC have a pretty good investment team, and there past investment record is very good.

2008 Annual Report
http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/idcplg?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=29491&dDocName=PRD_CTRB093669&allowInterrupt=1

2009 should be out in the next month.

Alan3285
24-03-2010, 12:57 PM
I agree.

This is potentially a good fit for ACC. They (probably) don't need a dividend flow, so they can sit it out and let ALF get the maximum value out of the Hanover book over time.

It is only if ALF are forced into liquidating it quickly that they'll sub-optimise the value derived.

Alan.

J R Ewing
24-03-2010, 01:18 PM
I don't believe this to be a negative as you see it, I think it was quite positive. ACC have a pretty good investment team, and there past investment record is very good.

2008 Annual Report
http://www.acc.co.nz/PRD_EXT_CSMP/idcplg?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=29491&dDocName=PRD_CTRB093669&allowInterrupt=1

2009 should be out in the next month.

So they won't have just been "buying the index" in case ALF makes the top 50?

Silverlight
24-03-2010, 02:01 PM
That may have been a factor but if you have a read of page 56 of their Annual report they held 113m of TEL and 29.3m in NZS. Those two holdings contrast indiacte the investment approach is not aimed at tracking the 50 index or even tracking benchmark world index like the dow or 500.

It seems they diversify widely, but also have the ability to take views outside of the box as well.

peat
24-03-2010, 02:21 PM
(ACC) have 29.3m in NZS

somewhat off topic in this thread but thats definitely a bit out of the box alright - they have more $ invested in Uruguay farming than they do in the Commonwealth Bank of Australia or Air NZ or Infratil. :scared: Good diversification I suppose

Silverlight
24-03-2010, 02:33 PM
Did have. This was the AR for year end 2008. NZS did hit a peak of $1.80ish

As at 19 March 2010 ACC own 16.9m NZS, worth 6.61m.


Back to topic:

Someone just bought 4.18m ALF @ 0.062.

minimoke
24-03-2010, 03:05 PM
Back to topic:

Someone just bought 4.18m ALF @ 0.062.
Someones just sold 4.18 - perhaps quitting before it drops further. One of the punters will be right or wrong.

J R Ewing
24-03-2010, 03:18 PM
Someones just sold 4.18 - perhaps quitting before it drops further. One of the punters will be right or wrong.

You can bet that the buyer figures it will go up. Maybe he seller just needs the $$.

Silverlight
24-03-2010, 03:48 PM
Only 2 ppl owned more than 2m shares in ALF before the Hanover shareholders came on board. Rob Alloway & John Hynds.

We now have 32 ppl who own more than 2m shares.

The trade is for the exact size of one of the new holders, so another Hanover investor selling their complete stake.

minimoke
25-03-2010, 04:20 PM
Who are these high rollers? Close of day trade worth $500 brings the price down 1.6%

Anna Naum
25-03-2010, 07:50 PM
Apparently management presented at First NZ conference today

percy
26-03-2010, 06:33 PM
Apparently management presented at First NZ conference today

May need to present at a NZ First conference to move the share price!

winner69
30-03-2010, 06:30 AM
So Allied might become a property developer

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10635231&pnum=2

minimoke
07-04-2010, 12:21 PM
Support at $0.070 now seems to have broken and its trending down. More punters reckon they can get in at $0.06 so that will be the next barrier. I reckon that can be breached hit in the next month. From there I reckon its still down hill.

Closed today at $0.064 (down to a new low)
Ding! A tad earlier than expected but there's the $0.06 threshold met today.

steamroller
07-04-2010, 09:55 PM
Predictions for next 3 months anyone?

biker
08-04-2010, 06:58 AM
Rob Alloway is coming across in the media as a bit of an ineffective mild mannered wimp IMHO. Time will tell, but not the traits needed in this hellish business.

bung5
08-04-2010, 08:05 AM
Predictions for next 3 months anyone?

going down town

Anna Naum
08-04-2010, 08:06 AM
The statement that they are not interested in risk is interesting

bung5
08-04-2010, 08:12 AM
Purely from a share price and not looking at the fundamentals of the company these ex hanover shareholders are going to keep pushing the price down as they sell out. As to if the company is worth anywhere near its NTA is anyones guess

minimoke
08-04-2010, 08:44 AM
Purely from a share price and not looking at the fundamentals of the company these ex hanover shareholders are going to keep pushing the price down as they sell out.
Thats going to be the way of it for a while yet. At the moment there are only a few people in there offering $30,000 support at 0.06. But on the sell side there is nothing of substance - just people who probably want to rasie a bit of cash to pay for the "early bird" winter holiday to the Gold Coast. For Hanover holders, I reckon they figure the money is gone. So if you have nothing anything you get above zero is a bonus. At the moment there isn't a heck of a lot to motivate them to sell - but give them another month or two when winter comes that month in Australia is going to look a better option or putting in a new heater may be enough to encourage them to quit - at whatever price they can get. Which ultimatly means a falling SP for a while yet.

minimoke
08-04-2010, 11:57 AM
Start of Feb ACC owned 5.5m, start of Mar they held 11.5m.

Will be interesting to see what they hold on April 1. Currently the largest holder of ALF.
ACC now holding around 10.9m. Thats around $660,000k worth. Every 0.001 drop is peanuts to ACC - so they are probably a biit like Hanover investors: probably reckon there holding is now nothing worth thinking about. But it would be nice to know what they bought in at.

Silverlight
08-04-2010, 03:56 PM
ACC now holding around 10.9m.

Where did that figure come from?

minimoke
09-04-2010, 06:49 AM
Where did that figure come from?
I keep a list of ACC holdings and thats what it shows as at 7 April

Alan3285
09-04-2010, 02:29 PM
ACC now holding around 10.9m. Thats around $37k worth. Every 0.001 drop is peanuts to ACC - so they are probably a biit like Hanover investors: probably reckon there holding is now nothing worth thinking about. But it would be nice to know what they bought in at.

Are you sure about that value figure?

Seems a bit low to me....

Alan.

minimoke
09-04-2010, 02:52 PM
Are you sure about that value figure?

Seems a bit low to me....

Alan.
Of course youre right - a blond moment. Still a drop in the bucket with their $1,100m in NZ eqities.

Alan3285
09-04-2010, 03:32 PM
Of course youre right - a blond moment. Still a drop in the bucket with their $1,100m in NZ eqities.


Is it just 10.9m @ $0.06 ~ $650,000.

That would make it roughly 0.06% of their portfolio (I am assuming your figure of $1,100m is about right).

I don't think they'll sweat it too much ;-)

Alan.

minimoke
09-04-2010, 03:47 PM
I don't think they'll sweat it too much ;-)

Alan.
I don't think they will either - I'd imagine they would have the Receptionist monitoring ALF during her tea break. Actually that figure is just theri NZ equities. Total ACC investements for reserves are around $10,750m. $650k would hardly register a blip and they would make more by getting a Benny off the compo.

Silverlight
09-04-2010, 03:55 PM
Mini just wondering where you source your figures?

I get mine from Deep Archive and ACC have increased their holding to 16.0m shares as at 1 April.


This to me is indicating a trend that they are slowly accumulating a large stake in ALF

minimoke
09-04-2010, 04:04 PM
Mini just wondering where you source your figures?


Usually a variety of sources - in this case the Companies Office (so there may be delays in them updating their records??) and the ACC Annual report. Buying a down trending stock would be an interesting play by ACC - especially if they are buying small amounts.
16m shares still only gives them 0.8% holding (best check my math!)

steamroller
21-04-2010, 10:23 AM
Share price up 17%, what are they up to?

Silverlight
21-04-2010, 11:16 AM
Share price up 17%, what are they up to?

on $29,050.94 value?

steamroller
22-04-2010, 11:22 AM
not much volume but still rising...

whatsup
22-04-2010, 01:40 PM
Selling off the good parts of the loan book ( the GOOD ASSETS of any sell off are always the easiest to sell ) which will imho leave the cr@p which no one want.

Dr_Who
22-04-2010, 03:15 PM
Selling off the good parts of the loan book ( the GOOD ASSETS of any sell off are always the easiest to sell ) which will imho leave the cr@p which no one want.

I agree. Was the sale at book value or below book value? The market seems to be ahead of itself.

minimoke
23-04-2010, 10:48 AM
The market seems to be ahead of itself.
Jeez, you can say that again. I pop away for a few days and its up nearly 40%. It is on very thin volumes though so I wonder if there is a bit of manipulatoin occurring.

Grimy
23-04-2010, 05:43 PM
The market seems to be ahead of itself.
Who cares if the market is ahead of itself, if you're one of the ones banking the 40%!

Silverlight
28-05-2010, 03:38 PM
Allied Farmers Asset Valuations Update

Consistent with Allied Farmers’ objective to keep the market fully informed on progress toward finalization of the values of property assets and loan assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009, we provide the following update.

On 1 March 2010 Allied Farmers released its interim financial statements for the period ended 31 December 2009. Included in these financial statements were the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009. The provisional fair value assessment for these net assets was $175.5 million.

On 7 May 2010 Allied Farmers announced a net decrease of $17.9 million from $105.4 million to $87.5 million in the value of its property assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance. The property assets are properties previously directly owned by Hanover and United and now directly owned by Allied Farmers. These include industrial development land in Queenstown, and various lifestyle sections and properties around New Zealand.

In the 7 May 2010 announcement Allied Farmers also indicated that the value of the loan assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance on 18 December 2009 is likely to be subject to an increase in impairment provisions, but at that stage it was too early to determine the extent of the impairment. The loan assets are loans made by Hanover Finance and United Finance (as lender) that have been transferred to Allied Farmers. These loans are typically secured over properties that are in various stages of development, ranging from bare land to completed and tenanted projects. The loans were recorded in the 31 December 2009 Interim Financial Statements at their provisional fair value assessment of $106.6 million.

As part of the process for the preparation of the 30 June 2010 financial statements Allied Farmers has now completed assessment work on $69.1m of the $106.6 million loans (being 65 percent) acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance. As a result of that work, Allied Farmers advises that an increase in impairment provisioning of $33.6 million is required on the $69.1 million of loans assessed to date.

Assessment work is underway on the remaining $37.5m balance of the acquired loan assets not yet assessed. However, we are unable at this stage to determine the extent of the impairment on these loans until we have received further information, such as updated independent valuations on underlying property securities.

Consistent with Allied Farmers previous statements, these loan asset impairment provisions, and the net decrease in the value of the property assets, reflect the challenges in realizing the assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance at the value ascribed in Hanover Finance’s and United Finance’s audited 30 June 2009 financial statements. These reflect the state of the market for both Allied Farmers’ property assets and loan assets secured by borrowers’ properties.

In particular, in relation to the loan assets, the following factors during the 2010 calendar year have contributed to the impairment provision:
• Lower valuations for commercial development land, arising from:
o a tightening of funding for such developments; and
o a lengthening of realisation periods due to longer rezoning processes and delays
• Lower valuations of Auckland apartments arising from a lack of funding and general oversupply.
• The bankruptcy or liquidation of borrowers resulting in forced sales rather than managed sell downs.

The result of our assessment work to date is that the provisional fair value assessment of the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance (disclosed in Allied Farmers 31 December 2009 Interim Financial Statements at $175.5 million) require a further impairment provision of $51.5 million. This results in a value of approximately $124 million for the net assets acquired from Hanover Finance and United Finance.

These impairment provisions are subject to further adjustments arising from completion of the work on the remaining $37.5m balance of the acquired loan assets, and audit verification. The final position will be reflected in Allied Farmers 30 June 2010 Financial Statements.

ENDS

winner69
28-05-2010, 04:34 PM
The whole writedown saga continues

Shoeshine in a recent NBR column commented that the due diligence must have been a dogs breakfast .... so todays announcement confirms ... $400m of assets now valued at $120m odd with more reviews to be done

Shoeshine also pointed some key dates and events to keep the bankers happy and also mentioned that ANF is experiencing 53% reinvestment rates and asks what happens when the government guarantee runs out.

Still a lot more to come out I think

percy
28-05-2010, 04:50 PM
The whole writedown saga continues

Shoeshine in a recent NBR column commented that the due diligence must have been a dogs breakfast .... so todays announcement confirms ... $400m of assets now valued at $120m odd with more reviews to be done

Shoeshine also pointed some key dates and events to keep the bankers happy and also mentioned that ANF is experiencing 53% reinvestment rates and asks what happens when the government guarantee runs out.

Still a lot more to come out I think

Has any one been surprised?

troyvdh
28-05-2010, 05:40 PM
...I really cannot believe the only things being thrown at hotchins palace are only eggs...and for that matter Hoskings place as well...

Capitalist
29-05-2010, 04:13 PM
The whole writedown saga continues

Shoeshine in a recent NBR column commented that the due diligence must have been a dogs breakfast .... so todays announcement confirms ... $400m of assets now valued at $120m odd with more reviews to be done

Shoeshine also pointed some key dates and events to keep the bankers happy and also mentioned that ANF is experiencing 53% reinvestment rates and asks what happens when the government guarantee runs out.

Still a lot more to come out I think

Allied/Hanover was never meant to survive though. That was the whole point of the deal. Think you know that though Winner...

Dr_Who
29-05-2010, 04:59 PM
The magicians got a Get Out of Jail free card and the holders continue to suffer. The writing was on the wall long while back, but unfortunately the PR spin was so good most was blinded by the BS. Didnt some accounting firm valued the asset at 60 cents during the ALF/Hangover deal?

http://pinoleroyrogers.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/hear-see-speak-no-evil1.jpg

troyvdh
29-05-2010, 05:25 PM
...and to think...Madoff is jail....Hotchins...is In hawaii....both ran ponzi schemes....madoff should have gotten NZ citizenship...he would have been in Hawaii as well....even though i lost no money to these mongrels...I cannot believe how they got away with it..and then to fluant the ill gotten gains so blatanatly...and still they only throw eggs........its quite pitifull really....and sad

Vtrader
31-05-2010, 03:01 PM
I ve been saying ALF will go to 5 cents for many months now. I still cant believe why anyone would pay a premium to the so called "NTA" for a high risk stock. Thats assume there are no more hidden nasties that can surprise us.

Now that this has been achieved, what is the next mile stone... 4, 3, ... 10?
V.

Stranger_Danger
31-05-2010, 03:14 PM
I've got no idea what roads it will drive on day by day, but the destination is definitely zero.

yabster
31-05-2010, 03:17 PM
Due dilgence - what due Dilgence? I feel for the orginal ALF shareholders. They should be giving it to the current management for taking the deal- what a shambles!

Alan3285
31-05-2010, 04:01 PM
Due dilgence - what due Dilgence? I feel for the orginal ALF shareholders. They should be giving it to the current management for taking the deal- what a shambles!

Yes, except that if you think (thought) that the ALF pre-Hanover was stuffed already, then the Hanover deal can only have improved the chances of ALF surviving - no way for it to have been negative that I can see?

Alan.

whatsup
31-05-2010, 04:26 PM
...and to think...Madoff is jail....Hotchins...is In hawaii....both ran ponzi schemes....madoff should have gotten NZ citizenship...he would have been in Hawaii as well....even though i lost no money to these mongrels...I cannot believe how they got away with it..and then to fluant the ill gotten gains so blatanatly...and still they only throw eggs........its quite pitifull really....and sad


Troy..., As much as I dislike Hotchin, et al I think its a bit of a long bow saying that he ran a ponzi scheme , it could also be a liableist call if made in public even made on a web page/site as this one, be very cautish what you say the liable laws are not worth 30 seconds of fame

percy
31-05-2010, 04:42 PM
Yes, except that if you think (thought) that the ALF pre-Hanover was stuffed already, then the Hanover deal can only have improved the chances of ALF surviving - no way for it to have been negative that I can see?

Alan.
There is a word I am looking for that really conveys well stuffed.........
Yes AlF was well stuffed.They would have been gone by now without Hanover.Same as Dominion Finance.Gone.Liabilities far excede Assets you do not stay in business. Yes people were trading DFH shares right up to the end.Why? I do not know.I would expect ALF to remain positive to the end.Why? I do not know.I would expect people to trade ALF right up to the end.Why?I do not know.I do know I will not go near them!!!!1

troyvdh
31-05-2010, 05:00 PM
...whatsup....thanks for that ...re a long bow....I think not.....should you search for Brian Gaynors contributions (If I could ...which I cant I would cut and paste blah blah) you will find an article where he precisely states just that .....that the activites of Hotchin et al were nothing short of a "ponzi like" scheme....in that the outgoings ...payements for those recieving interest on there "investments" were only sustainable by contributions of new "investors".....incoming income was only possible if the developers sold the properties blah blah...interest payments were made then......when the "investments were sold".......with all due respect ...am I incorrect here or what....

PS I am a nurse not an accoutant...however i believe I can differentiate between right and wrong, cheers

fame....what

Dr_Who
31-05-2010, 06:37 PM
Now that this has been achieved, what is the next mile stone... 4, 3, ... 10?
V.

Vtrader, there is alot of things I would like to air about Hangover and other finance companies on here, but have decided not to for obvious reasons. What I can say is, you will never see me invest in ALF, PGC, SCF and others in similar structure.

Doyle
31-05-2010, 07:47 PM
...whatsup....thanks for that ...re a long bow....I think not.....should you search for Brian Gaynors contributions (If I could ...which I cant I would cut and paste blah blah) you will find an article where he precisely states just that .....that the activites of Hotchin et al were nothing short of a "ponzi like" scheme....in that the outgoings ...payements for those recieving interest on there "investments" were only sustainable by contributions of new "investors".....incoming income was only possible if the developers sold the properties blah blah...interest payments were made then......when the "investments were sold".......with all due respect ...am I incorrect here or what....

PS I am a nurse not an accoutant...however i believe I can differentiate between right and wrong, cheers



fame....what


Exactly a long bow. On paper hanover was profitable its debtors jst didn;t pay. On paper Madoff was a fraud, he created profits that simply didn't exist.

Hanover didn't have proper credit control procedures (not even close) unfortunately this isn't illegal.
Hotchin and Watson took out paper profits as divedends, even when cashflow was negative. Again this is probably completely legal, and even if it wasn't, we are only talking about 60 million dollars.

So ultimately you a drawing a very long bow.

Hotchin and Watson are guilty of dubious busines practice and being goodtime merchants. Madoff was quilty of fraud.

troyvdh
31-05-2010, 10:15 PM
Doyle....your logic is utterly astounding...however it remains yours....cheers...

Silverlight
01-06-2010, 08:25 AM
Lets keep the topic to ALF, there is already a thread to whine about Hanover.


So balance sheet update with the 50m writedown.

Assets 527,347,000 (Intangibles 19,792,000, Deferred Tax 6,359,000)

Liabilities 407,433,000

Net Tangible assets 93,763,000

Shares on Issue 1,952,294,858

NTA 4.8 cents per share.


Anyone want to speculate how much futher the current 124m will get written down?

minimoke
01-06-2010, 08:30 AM
.

PS I am a nurse not an accoutant...however i believe I can differentiate between right and wrong, cheers

Perhasp the issue here is the difference between legally wrong and morally wrong.

I can't comment on the legally wrong bit - we have Regulators who will determine if thier is a case to answer and courts to decide that matter.

As for the morals - thats a difficult one. On one side you will have Hotchin and Watson being "dodgy" - but give credit where its due - they were also clever. On the other side you have the investors. Sucked in by Richard Longs Celebrity status and good looking returns - how many of them looked at the accounts? And that Eric Watson is such a nice man - he beat up that horrid Russel Crowe and has such good taste in women - of course you'de follow him with your cash. Given an opportunity to get Watson and Hotchin to cough up $20m they turned it down - so don't go bleating about Paratia Drive: the investors gave Hotchin $10m for that build. And what about the red flags. GPG were said to have cast an eye over the opportunity. Not only did they turn it down but they also flogged off all their ALF shares as soon as they could.

I have a feeling you could chisel the word "warning" into the skulls of ALF holders and they still wouldn't have a clue.

Lizard
01-06-2010, 08:45 AM
Why should anyone who worked hard and saved hard then have to work even harder, learning a whole new set of skills (accounting), simply to be entitled to keep their savings?

Alan3285
01-06-2010, 08:58 AM
Why should anyone who worked hard and saved hard then have to work even harder, learning a whole new set of skills (accounting), simply to be entitled to keep their savings?

They most certainly shouldn't.

Anyone who doesn't want to 'learn' about investing should stick to bank term desposits and a pretty safe 5% (or whatever it may be at the time), and preferably spread it around a number of banks.

If they want better returns, they have to put some work into it, else it is just a gamble, and often they'll lose.

Alan.

Stranger_Danger
01-06-2010, 09:14 AM
Lizard - because having money sucks, but not having money also sucks, so we all get to choose our path.

Out of the people I know, the ones who have the most money are the ones who worry the most about money, and have to do lots of extra work learning money management skills and investing.

The ones who have the least money also worry the least about money itself and put virtually no effort into learning about how to manage money or invest. Their time is spent on the practical - trying to get the stuff they need without much money.

If you choose to accept the responsibility of having money - and you have the desire to have more and more - you HAVE to accept it comes with strings attached.

During the boom, a lot of people got hooked on the idea of risk free return. Some of the popular phrases were "work smarter, not harder" and "passive income". I recall books about 5 minute managers and 4 hour work weeks.

"Property never goes down" persists to this day. For a while longer.

The cold hard fact is this. Most of the people caught in finance company debentures were there for an extra 2% a year return. 2%!

I personally warned dozens of people, far in advance - ie 2005. I wasn't the only one.

Could I predict Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns in 2005? No

Bridgecorp? Yes

C + M Finance? Yes

Five Star? Yes

That contagion would result? Yes

Most importantly, was it becoming clear in 2005, and crystal clear in 2007, that the world was pretty much at the end of a multi decade borrowing and consumption binge? Yes

Would this end well? No

These people didn't need to learn accounting, or burn the midnight oil - I laid it out for them very clearly. More importantly, I walked the talk and invested like I was telling them to.

How many listened?

One.

The rest were too busy making "easy money".

Hotchin and Watson were greedy, yes. But they weren't the only ones. The only difference was scale - they leveraged other peoples greed.

By the way, I've talked to a couple people who ignored my rants is 2005. They came back seeking the same advice they were given in 2005, but in 2008/2009, so that they could somehow apply it then to get the same result they would have got in 2005.

This type of thinking is exactly what made people vote for the moratoriums and the Hanover/ALF deal.

It is for this reason most advice I give people these days starts with the phrase "Well, first, buy a time machine..."

In other words, I've given up! Rant over.

minimoke
01-06-2010, 09:16 AM
Why should anyone who worked hard and saved hard then have to work even harder, learning a whole new set of skills (accounting), simply to be entitled to keep their savings?
It takes a change of mind set - they are not "Savings" they are "income generators". These people no doubt learnt skills and practiced them when they were "working" to generate an income from their jobs. Why would they not do the same thing when they want an income from their cash?

I suspect its basically because we are not taught how to manage money over the long term (the piggy bank at school doesn't count!) - and where there is a vacuum in knowledge someone will fill it. Some may say this leaves the gullible and vulnerable open to the sharks - and I'd agree for maybe 10% of the population - but then they probably don't have too much cash to invest. That leaves the rest of the population with reasonable inteligence able to make simple decisions based on a simple analysis. But they don't - and why not. Because they are too lazy and won't take personal responsibility for their decisions.

Harsh words which I'm bound to get flamed on - but bear with me. How many things in life do we spend our money on and we get a guarantee on perfomance - just about everything! Everything that is except financial advisors who keep coming up with the old chestnut "Past performance is no guarantee of future performace" and like sheep NZ'ers just hand over their loot. If peoepl aren't perpared to work at theri investments I have no sympathhy for them whne things go belly up - I have even less sympathy when they don't know when to cut their losses and like possums in car lights stay transfixed on the promise of returns which just can't be achieved.

Lizard
01-06-2010, 09:17 AM
Re Alan's post:

I think that is a pretty arrogant attitude. Not saying investments have to be risk free, but I think there is more obligation on the providers than that.

The same attitude says that anyone who doesn't bother to become an expert in medical procedures or drug interactions shouldn't take anything stronger than manuka honey or they deserve what they get...

Stranger_Danger
01-06-2010, 09:26 AM
Lizard,

I know virtually nothing about medical procedures.

However, I do know - from talking to people in the profession - that the standard of care received can differ based on the patient.

In other words, be cruel or arrogant or demanding, and you'll get crap care. Be nice, and considerate and friendly, you'll get great care.

I also know this from my own experience in other fields - its universal.

I know that there is a public and a private system. I know that having money means you have a choice of going private. This gives flexibility.

I know that getting drunk every day, smoking, or being obese increases my odds of needing medical help. Talk to nurses. They spend their days with drinking, smoking fat people.

I have control over these things.

Once I'm knocked out and getting an operation, I agree with you. I put my life in their hands.

There is an element of trust with medical care, just like investing.

You are in the hands of your professional.

I refute, however, the notion that you have no control at all - really, how hard was it to work out Rod Petrecivic? The info was all out there.

minimoke
01-06-2010, 09:43 AM
There is an element of trust with medical care, just like investing.

You are in the hands of your professional.


Can't say I'm overly comforatbale with Lizards analogy - and Troyvdh is probanly in a better posiiotn to comment.

But hrter are clear difference. You end up in hospital you wil be treatred by nurses who have done years of practical and theoretical evidence based study and doctors who have done even more. Our society demands such stand when dealing with our personal life - but we have no such expectations with our financial life.

If things go wrong in health (and they do - you've got a reasonble chance of being worse on on leaving a hospital than when you entered it) but there are monitoring and back up systems. You also have medical malpractice and misadvernture suits to back you up if things go wrong.

Either way - if I had a choice between a Registered doctor advice and Rongoa I know which way I'll go.

Lizard
01-06-2010, 09:58 AM
The main difference I can see between health and wealth is that health is less transferable - one person getting sicker does not directly make another person healthier.

When it comes to wealth, in large part, one person's loss is someone else's gain. Since most of us on ST are either relatively wealthy (or expect to be), it suits our conscience to believe that those who lose deserve it because it supports the corollary that we deserve our gains.

Stranger_Danger
01-06-2010, 10:09 AM
I do deserve my gains.

I also deserve the RSI, the sore back, the fact I'm single, don't have kids and live with cats, the friendships not maximised due to working too much etc etc.

We all make our choices.

We don't just get the upside of our choices - every choice has a downside, even if it is just an opportunity cost.

Alan3285
01-06-2010, 10:24 AM
@Lizard,

It is the height of arrogance to think that you know better than the professional analysts.

I recall many conversations with people back in the mid 90s along these lines:



Mr Clever: I can get 14% pa return on first ranking secured debentures at HandItOverMerchants!

Alan: Really? How do you know that?

Mr Clever: Look - it says so here, on page three of the NZ Herald weekend business section!

Alan: Hmmm.. What does that advert say?

Mr Clever: It says I can get 14% pa return on first ranking secured debentures at HandItOverMerchants!

Alan: Hmmm.. What are they REALLY saying?

Mr Clever: Huh?

Alan: Aren't they asking to borrow money from you at an interest rate of 14% pa?

Mr Clever: Huh? What are you on about??

Alan: They are looking to borrow money from you, me, anyone, at 14% pa. Would you borrow money from me at 14% pa?

Mr Clever: No way - Westpac are lending to me at 8%, why would I pay you 14%?

Alan: So why don't HandItOverMerchants borrow from Westpac at 8%?

Mr Clever: Hmmm.. not sure....

Alan: Could it be that they would LOVE to borrow from Westpac at 8% or even 14% and not have to deal with the public (and pay for adverts), but Westpac won't lend to them at that rate because their professional analysts have determined that 14% is not enough return to compensate for such a risky investment?

Mr Clever: Errr..... yeah..., but... I can get 14% pa return on my secured first ranking debentures at HandItOverMerchants!

Alan: So you know better than the professionals at Westpac?

Mr Clever: I'm CLEVERER!

Alan: {Sigh}

minimoke
01-06-2010, 10:41 AM
The main difference I can see between health and wealth is that health is less transferable - one person getting sicker does not directly make another person healthier.

Lizard, I think you are assuming the wealth pie is only so big and the slices get redistributed.

But here I think your analogy does work. Health is transferable. Hanover was, argubaly terminally ill with a few contagious diseases like the GFC disease. Rather than confining it and perhaps surgically cutting out the rotten bits, investors decided to flag the operation and send the sick company into ALFs ward. ALF already had a defficient immune system and rather than being given good drugs to make it better it was given the contagoius and very unhealthy Hanover as a ward mate. Hanover proably has Ebola and is unlikely to ever be recognised for what it used to look like. How ALF ends up is anyones guess - but the prognosis probably isn't great for a speedy recovery. In a similar vein fat kids (as an example) are fat because they have parents who won't make the tough calls - they are certainly easily transferring health from one to another

And I don't mind admitting that when I have lost money (there has been the odd occasion!) it was I who totally deserved it. The only person at fault was me. But I've learnt some lessons along the way and the next time I loose money (because thats probably inevitable) I won't be looking for someone else to blame.

Dr_Who
01-06-2010, 10:47 AM
@Lizard,

It is the height of arrogance to think that you know better than the professional analysts.



Unfortunately the system let us down this time round.

During the boom days before the finance firm fall out, every man and their dogs can call themselves investment advisor. So you have a bunch of car salesmen and insurance salesmen who cant read a spreadsheet started giving advice to the mum and dads. You would get advice like put all your hard earn savings in finance co, the property never falls, the world will continue to boom... etc.

If your house gets burgled, do you blame the house owner for not having a dog and an alarm and let the thief go free?

A well rounded society and community is one that we take care of the ones that are less fortunate than us.

Alan3285
01-06-2010, 10:55 AM
Unfortunately the system let us down this time round.

During the boom days before the finance firm fall out, every man and their dogs can call themselves investment advisor. So you have a bunch of car salesmen and insurance salesmen who cant read a spreadsheet started giving advice to the mum and dads. You would get advice like put all your hard earn savings in finance co, the property never falls, the world will continue to boom... etc.

If your house gets burgled, do you blame the house owner for not having a dog and an alarm and let the thief go free?

A well rounded society and community is one that we take care of the ones that are less fortunate than us.


That's a straw-man argument. I never mentioned 'financial advisers' that is entirely from you.

I said that people I was talking to, who were choosing to lend money via 'first ranking secured debentures', thought they knew more than the analysts at Westpac who spend all day, every day, deciding whether to lend to people or not, and at what rate of interest.

That's up to them of course, but its incredibly arrogant of them, and it looks like they were wrong, and Westpac were right that 14% wasn't sufficient to reward for the risk.

You win some, you lose some, but we shouldn't blame others for our mistakes.

Alan.


PS: ALF now trading at 5c / share. There is quite a lot of support at 5c, but I wouldn't be too surprised if that chunk of 380,000 buys at that price disappears shortly.....

Lizard
01-06-2010, 10:58 AM
I don't recall either Hanover or ALF or even United Finance offering 14%, but perhaps I missed something.

Sadly, I don't have the time to continue this debate - perhaps you should come along to the Wgtn ST meeting and we can have a barney and a laugh :)

minimoke
01-06-2010, 11:17 AM
A well rounded society and community is one that we take care of the ones that are less fortunate than us.
Agreed - but if a person is dense enough to put their hard earned money with a used car salesman why should we have sympathy, let alone be asked to put our hands in our pockets to help that person out. Its like those free loaders who buy a house but no insurance and then expect the community to stump up to help them out when the place gets burgled.

Alan3285
01-06-2010, 01:17 PM
I don't recall either Hanover or ALF or even United Finance offering 14%, but perhaps I missed something.

Sadly, I don't have the time to continue this debate - perhaps you should come along to the Wgtn ST meeting and we can have a barney and a laugh :)

I wonder what is left lying around the net in terms of 'ads' from the FCs back in the mid 90s?

On the other, I didn't even know there were ST meetings!

Wellington is a bit far to go, but thank you for the invite.

Alan.

minimoke
01-06-2010, 03:45 PM
I wonder what is left lying around the net in terms of 'ads' from the FCs back in the mid 90s?
.

If you take March 1995 interbank cash rates were 9.15% and 90 day bill yields were 9.42%. Business base lending rates were 11.35% and Floating First Mortgage rates were 11%. 14%+ from finance cos seems quite likely.

minimoke
01-06-2010, 04:03 PM
Hmm - and it looks like Allied Nationwide is going to drag ALF down furrther. Now theres an extended $10m facility for losses on existing and future impaired loans.

Balance
01-06-2010, 05:34 PM
Agreed - but if a person is dense enough to put their hard earned money with a used car salesman why should we have sympathy, let alone be asked to put our hands in our pockets to help that person out. Its like those free loaders who buy a house but no insurance and then expect the community to stump up to help them out when the place gets burgled.

LOL - More like the solo mums who get drunk, get pregnant to unknown males, have the babies and expect society to look after them and the babies.

Maybe some of the do-gooder posters should volunteer to play fathers to the kids.

Please don't all put up your hands at the same time.

troyvdh
01-06-2010, 05:38 PM
...thanks guys....its great to read some really heartfelt sentiment...investing,buying/selling shares/wealth..to some is an exercise of naked greed....however the recent postings ..at least to me indicate that that aint so....as a very wealthy man said to me once "you dont need to be a crook to make dosh"...I find it astounding that in our education system largely negletes this topic...I feel so sad for those who put their faith in finance companies that have fallen,,,,to many of us it was so predictable....retired folk who laboured countless hours ...denying many luxouries...counting every cent....dioscussing amongest them selves ..there dreams and inspirations...to be taken advantage by flashy blokes in suits,flashy pamphlets/lovely photos....when in fact the sole purpose of many of these "companies" was to enrich there own pockets...so blatantly....gee it makes me angry....I probably should not say this but i would be throwing something more than eggs at hotchins place....in fact what does surprise me is that there is not more of a more robust response to all the finance collapse's....some will say that "its the business cycle"...that is rubbish.....many of these folk ...at least I believe....exploit existing regulations to precisely enrich there own pockets and exploit every proposition to do so...."because they can"...who to blame....Mr Hickey has a point ...Ms Diplock has indeed been woefull....Im not sure what the answer is...education....as an aside why is it so that money scampers (ie Nigeria et al) have quite spectacular success in southland.

macduffy
01-06-2010, 06:43 PM
....as an aside why is it so that money scampers (ie Nigeria et al) have quite spectacular success in southland.

Perhaps it's a bit like why bank robbers rob banks.

That's where the money is!

winner69
01-06-2010, 07:22 PM
Hmm - and it looks like Allied Nationwide is going to drag ALF down furrther. Now theres an extended $10m facility for losses on existing and future impaired loans.

My view only but ANP needs a heck more capital than $10m .... esp later this year

The big question is will ALF be in a position to provide this?

Lot more to be come out yet I fear

Alan3285
01-06-2010, 08:23 PM
My view only but ANP needs a heck more capital than $10m .... esp later this year

The big question is will ALF be in a position to provide this?

Lot more to be come out yet I fear

Hi Winner69,

Why do you think that?

Are there figures out there that lead to this conclusion, as I can't see much of anything at this point?

Thanks,

Alan.

winner69
02-06-2010, 07:21 AM
Hi Winner69,

Why do you think that?

Are there figures out there that lead to this conclusion, as I can't see much of anything at this point?

Thanks,

Alan.

Mainly bar room conjecture Alan .... but think about what happens when the government guarantee runs out for them later this year (even now reinvestment rates are apparently quite low) and the impact of new capital adequacy rules on them and do some rough extrapolations from the laest balance sheet

troyvdh
04-06-2010, 08:15 PM
...mongrels...if these low lifes were to decline the $5m...every one of hanover's victims could go for out a night and spend about $380...each...

...or at least put towards there funeral costs...

Anna Naum
08-06-2010, 07:12 AM
Given that Mr H and his wife have already told us that they think they are entitled to the $500k, four month holiday I doubt they are about to not accept the cash. $5m gives just another reason why he fronted to the meetings and said it was the best outcome for people, he just forgot to mention it was better for him than others!

winner69
08-06-2010, 07:58 AM
Mainly bar room conjecture Alan .... but think about what happens when the government guarantee runs out for them later this year (even now reinvestment rates are apparently quite low) and the impact of new capital adequacy rules on them and do some rough extrapolations from the laest balance sheet

Seems to be what the rating agencies are saying as well

Alan3285
08-06-2010, 11:09 AM
ALF (ords) now trading at 4.8c each.

No impact on ALF010 though.

I still feel quite bullish on the bonds myself. Does anyone think differently, and if so, why?

Alan.

Silverlight
08-06-2010, 11:54 AM
The bonds are tied to the fate of the company, if you believe ALF will be here in 18 months and still liquid then they offer a good return.

However their are 12.6m ALF010 notes on issue, ALF010 redeem on 15 November next year and convert to ordinary shares at 95% value of the 20 vwap of shares prior to redeption.

If ALF goes bust ALF010 holders rank behind $210m of Term deposits, and $103m of commerical paper.


ALF must survive and do well with the rest of the Hanover loanbook, to make good your return.

Silverlight
09-06-2010, 01:01 PM
Just doing some digging through the terms on the bonus issue in the case of a shorfall.

At the current $270m shorfall on the asset impairment I calculate that holders of ALF on 16 Dec 2009 will get issued 564m new shares, because of the current shortfall, on 30 June 2011.

Does anyone want to check my math on this, or has this already been discussed?

Page 10 -11 Notice of Meeting 24 Nov 2009 (https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSE0000/2009/323365/NZSE0000-110211.pdf)

minimoke
09-06-2010, 01:51 PM
Does anyone want to check my math on this, or has this already been discussed?

Page 10 -11 Notice of Meeting 24 Nov 2009 (https://www.i-search.nzx.com/blobs/NZSE0000/2009/323365/NZSE0000-110211.pdf)
WTF. And Hanover/ALF investors really understood all that!

winner69
09-06-2010, 01:59 PM
Just as well there's no such things as share certificates these days .... some would need to buy a new unit in the retirement home to store them

minimoke
09-06-2010, 02:01 PM
Just as well there's no such things as share certificates these days .... some would need to buy a new unit in the retirement home to store themOr if the Outhouse ever needed wallpapering or extra soft tissue.

Silverlight
09-06-2010, 03:46 PM
Just to monetize the position ALF holders are in, prior to the Hanover acqusition you could have bought 100,000 ALF at 20 cents on 16 December 2009, record date for the bonus securities.

If you then sold on the 17th, you maybe would have got 15 cents, so $20k position, closed out with a $5k loss, but still with the bonus securitiy entitlement. You would still have 10,000 bonus securities, so you in essence paid $5k for 10,000 bonus securities.

With a shortfall of the current $272m, the bonus securities convert at 1:149.67 shares, so you would receive 1,496,774 shares on 30 June 2011, if everything stays the same.

1,496,774 at 4.5 cents per share is worth $67,354.83.


If 564m shares do get issued, shares on issue will be 2,516,529,262, giving a future NTA of 3.725 cents per share.

Morpheus
09-06-2010, 04:07 PM
This NBR article http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/bonus-share-twist-alliedhanover-saga-dilution-expected-119665
suggests the "asset value" must be recorded under GAAP accounting standards which was how they were at the time of the December transaction. A fair chunk of the write-downs to date are due to IFRS trickery so when the trigger point comes the value attributed to Hanover stuff may be more than what we are seeing now. But who knows.

minimoke
09-06-2010, 04:12 PM
Just to monetize the position ALF holders are in, prior to the Hanover acqusition you could have bought 100,000 ALF at 20 cents on 16 December 2009, record date for the bonus securities.

If you then sold on the 17th, you maybe would have got 15 cents, so $20k position, closed out with a $5k loss, but still with the bonus securitiy entitlement. You would still have 10,000 bonus securities, so you in essence paid $5k for 10,000 bonus securities.

With a shortfall of the current $272m, the bonus securities convert at 1:149.67 shares, so you would receive 1,496,774 shares on 30 June 2011, if everything stays the same.

1,496,774 at 4.5 cents per share is worth $67,354.83.


If 564m shares do get issued, shares on issue will be 2,516,529,262, giving a future NTA of 3.725 cents per share.
Or is it - if you didn't sell you'd have your original 100,000 shares which are currently worth, @$0.045, $4,500


your 100,000 shares at $0.045 are worth $4,500. so you get 10,000 bonus shares so your 110,00 shares are worth $0.0409 each

Except with the conversion you have your original 100,00 shares plus the extra 1,496,774 giving a total of 1,596,774 shares. Theres still only $4,500 worth of value so each share is worth $0.0028 each?


Ner trus tmy math though - its too late in the day!

Silverlight
09-06-2010, 04:34 PM
They weren't bonus shares, they were non listed bonus securities, that don't vest and convert until 30 Jun 2011, you received 1 for every 10 shares you own.

They are apparently freely transferable at the registry level, potentially you could send a letter to all holder offering to buy them at 10 cents, people might think that is good, not realising the current conversion ratio. Dun dun dun... who is that dodgy fulla in Australia who does that?