KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[Bjauck]

MRP PIEs like Kiwi savers and Bank term deposits ...one need to elect PIR ...if the correct PIR is used ALL year then nothing happens ...they are separate calculations from your other taxable income calculations ...ie PIE calculations of tax paid or tax liability dont spill over to overall taxable income calculations . But if your PIR for MRP PIEs is wrong then u can either have a separate PIE tax bill or refund . Eg your MRP PIE like bank term deposit deducted tax @28% while your actual PIR for the year is 17.5% as per IRD then u will get PIE tax refund ...its seperate from other refunds like RWT etc ...it will be simple 28-17.5 = 10.5% of the MRP PIE income for that year
Thanks I do understand the PIR can be selected - and the rate selected can be changed by the IRD now I believe. While the PIE income scheme is separate from other income tax it is linked in that the correct MRP PIR depends on your total income from all sources.

In simple situations, if someone’s total income is derived just from listed PIEs with the 28% pie imputation credit and no RWT deducted, then if their end of year tax liability is calculated at less than 28% of their income, then they get no cash refund as imputation credits cannot be cash refunded? However if the pie income had been from an MRP Pie with a 28% PIR then they could get a refund if the PIR should have been lower.

if someone derives listed Pie and MRP pie income only. Can MRP pie tax, with the correct PIR applied, be refunded if EOY tax calculation on the total gross income is less than PIE tax already levied and PIE imputation credit? I suspect not!

*I used refund as meaning a credit to your bank account/cash

[alokdhir]

Thanks I do understand the PIR can be selected - and the rate be changed by the IRD now I believe. While the PIE income scheme is separate from other income tax it is linked in that the correct MRP PIR depends on your total income from all sources.

In simple situations, if someone’s total income is derived just from listed PIEs with the 28% pie imputation credit and no RWT deducted, then if their end of year tax liability is calculated at less than 28% of their income, then they get no cash refund as imputation credits cannot be cash refunded? However if the pie income had been from an MRP Pie with a 28% PIR then they could get a refund if the PIR should have been lower.

*I used refund as meaning a credit to your bank account/cash

Fully correct as per my understanding ...listed PIE u get only c/f imp credits if paid excess and MRP can get cash refund ...also another difference is listed pie's income goes to NZ dividends section and not Pie section ...not fully sure as its clarity lacking

[alokdhir]

KFL has added Vulcan Steel to portfolio in May ....PPH out and Vulcan in !

[winner69]

KFL has added Vulcan Steel to portfolio in May ....PPH out and Vulcan in !

Bugger …probably given Vulcan the kiss of death eh alokdhir

One thing another sector for you to take an interest in….maybe one day they’ll Metro Glass in the fund ;)

[Grimy]

I'm happy enough with that. Another company I was interested in, but never bought. KFL covers a lot of companies I don't have as individual shares.

[SPC]

W69 Kingfish did previously have a holding in Metro, pulled out well nth of $1 per share if my memory serves me before the rot set in. Good call. That's the beauty of an active fund manager.

[alokdhir]

Bugger …probably given Vulcan the kiss of death eh alokdhir

One thing another sector for you to take an interest in….maybe one day they’ll Metro Glass in the fund ;)

I will encourage them to add your favourite stocks ...HLG and TRA ...EBO they added and it got the dreaded kiss of death u referring to ....let me see if they can do that to HLG / TRA also ...:D

[fastbike]

So a 1 for 4 warrant issue coming up with an exercise price of $1.37 July 2024.

Pros .. and Cons ?

[justakiwi]

It would be great to get back to the days of warrants that are actually worth exercising, but who knows where the share price will be by then.


So a 1 for 4 warrant issue coming up with an exercise price of $1.37 July 2024.

Pros .. and Cons ?

[alokdhir]

IMO this warrant issue will be in the money big time by next July end 2024 ...Exercise price will be around 1.37 minus 4 dividends of about 12 cents = $ 1.25


KFL SP in July 2024 maybe around 1.60 ...just my opinion ...so DYOR

This warrants shud add 3-5 cents value to SP till 5th July record date

[Sideshow Bob]

So a 1 for 4 warrant issue coming up with an exercise price of $1.37 July 2024.

Pros .. and Cons ?

They add some interest and speculation!! :t_up:

[ronaldson]

IMO this warrant issue will be in the money big time by next July end 2024 ...Exercise price will be around 1.37 minus 4 dividends of about 12 cents = $ 1.25


KFL SP in July 2024 maybe around 1.60 ...just my opinion ...so DYOR

This warrants shud add 3-5 cents value to SP till 5th July record date

Agree with alokdhir. These warrants should definitely be "in the money" at the exercise date.

And the exercise price is NOT $1.37 as some have commented, but will in fact be very close to alokdhirs calculation above.

We can all have fun now speculating at what price the warrants will trade when first listed.

[SPC]

8 cents my pick

[bull....]

nice brought the stock recently before div ex . the stock take off when nz stock market starts moving higher again. its a laggard at moment compared to other markets maybe next yr be its time in sun again. after election ?

[mike2020]

nice brought the stock recently before div ex . the stock take off when nz stock market starts moving higher again. its a laggard at moment compared to other markets maybe next yr be its time in sun again. after election ?

Chat gpt? This seems out of character bull. You know it won't matter who's in the beehive, the reserve banks next rise post election plus the rise in jobless will provide your prime opportunity here.

[ronaldson]

The KFL Board have certainly looked after holders with this warrant issue. Currently the last reported NAV is $1.3643. Holders taking the DRIP this week will be allotted shares at $1.2711 which in turn will be eligible for the warrant issue on the record date, 5 July. In the interim shares will trade on market reflecting terms of the warrant issue. I think the closing price yesterday of $1.33 is not yet fully reflective of the value which should be attributed cum warrants (at 1 warrant for every 4 shares) and the exercise price which should be around $1.26 in due course.

KFL is in large part a yield investment and interest rates should be off their peak before the exercise date which will enhance the underlying attractiveness of KFL so it's possible these warrants could have significant value by July 2024 without any allowance for NAV increase in the intervening period.

My view is the actual early warrant price on-market will be more than the 8c predicted by SPC once trading settles.

[alokdhir]

Last four dividends are 11.30 Cents ...then Exercise Price on 26th July shud be 1.37-0.11 = $ 1.26

But if they become 11.50+ then it can be 1.37 -0.12 = 1.25 ..

Hopefully NAV will be going higher in next 12 months ...so chances of little higher dividend are good ...$ 1.25 most likely exercise price ...most attractively priced from recent history , as they are making sure its a BIG Success after full failure of last one ...lol

But that makes these warrants very attractive ...its free one year + call on NZ market ...which hopefully will be much higher in 13 months ...KFL NAV will outperform NZX50G rise as it has growth stocks which took bigger hit then dividend stocks on way down because of higher rates ...so when rates reverse or LOOK to reverse ahead market will rerate growth stocks with PER expansion

My guess/ estimate of warrant's high is 40 Cents ...30-40 cents in next 13 months

Keeping in view huge prospects ahead for these warrants ....IMO they shud start trading 10-15 cents range .....soon we will know :cool:

[bull....]

Chat gpt? This seems out of character bull. You know it won't matter who's in the beehive, the reserve banks next rise post election plus the rise in jobless will provide your prime opportunity here.

chat gpt doesnt do financials
i brought for yield , i think they will do everything possible to make the warrant issue a success as there dividend's depend on it i reckon

[mike2020]

100%. I put the last of my available cash on KFL for the win minutes after the announcement.

[Rawz]

So the warrants will be dragging on NAV in no time?

KFL really did price these so that they will not fail.

[alokdhir]

If u hold warrants till July24 end and then either sell in market or exercise them ...Holders now will not loose on any dilution of NAV on his original holding

Eg ...In July 2024 NAV is $ 1.60 and exercise price is $ 1.25 then if all warrants get exercised then after dilution NAV looses 7 cents ...which shud be covered by selling warrants for 28 cents and over that will be profit reducing your original purchase price ....which is easily possible if SP is 1.60 then warrants can be 35 Cents

Other option is to sell head shares @ 1.60 and exercise your own warrants @ 1.25 ...which is equivalent of selling warrants @ 35 Cents ...this involves some paperwork so provides maximum value for original allotted free warrants

PS : Or one can bring fresh funds to buy new KLF @ 1.25 using his OWN free allotted warrants

[Rawz]

Yes but if you dont hold either and looking to buy (i.e. you are the demand for the SP) then you need to track the diluted NAV end of story

[bull....]

Yes but if you dont hold either and looking to buy (i.e. you are the demand for the SP) then you need to track the diluted NAV end of story

yep there portfolio return weighted has barely moved last couple yrs but nav being dragged down by div's paid out. going forward they need the portfolio to perform overall

[alokdhir]

This is not the first warrant issue from Fisher Funds ...it has never effected regular demand before .So safe to assume it will keep trading normally as per previous experiences of similar nature ...though they do highlight in every weekly NAV announcement about warrants pending etc

PS : Since 2004 launch ...I think KFL had 8 warrant issues and KFL still did well for the even original holders of $1 face value who did not bring any further funds to subscribe to these warrants ...it paid 8% of NAV PA and still has $1.37 capital ...overall it was and maybe is a good investment

[ronaldson]

I note that the market doesn't seem to share my view that the current share price for KFL under values the worth of the warrants just announced. It looks like about 2cps is priced in presently, which on a 1 for 4 basis equates to SPC's view that an individual warrant will trade at 8 cents when they are actually listed early next month.

[alokdhir]

Record date is 5th July ....expect to see warrant related activity near that time ....1.35 is still a possibility !!

Also what market values warrants now is less material then what it can be worth in 13 months ahead ...if one has a view that market will be materially higher from current levels then it provides opportunity to accumulate them as cheap as possible

These warrants are like Call options ...so they have a price value which is fixed around $ 1.25 and then time value which decays over time ...putting both together I still reckon they will trade in 10-15 cents band at start ...7th July is not far

If markets are moved by rates primarily then easy to relate them to 13 months interest rate expectations of the market currently ....which is pretty down from current levels thus my view stocks will be much higher then now

[mike2020]

Fair call but a lot of people seem to be thinking interest rates have yet to peak. No crystal ball here but having seen a few of these run through I expect a fair amount of activity initially followed by a good 9 months of wait and see. Which to me means a few people who had them last time will take what's on offer in the first month.

[ronaldson]

Annual report published today. Not a good year. Unsurprising the last warrant issue expired worthless.

10m more shares on issue at 31 March than at 31 March 2022 and around $40m+ less value in the underlying equity holdings.

Hopefully a turnaround is coming!

[Rawz]

Annual report published today. Not a good year. Unsurprising the last warrant issue expired worthless.

10m more shares on issue at 31 March than at 31 March 2022 and around $40m+ less value in the underlying equity holdings.

Hopefully a turnaround is coming!

Havnt read it but based on your quick summary i assume the manager didnt take a fee and possibly even gave some money back? (joke)

[alokdhir]

Last two days of trading left for CUM warrants KFL ...Tuesday it shud trade ex warrant !!

[ronaldson]

Yes, record date for warrants is 5 July ( Wednesday) so with T+2 settlement today should be the last opportunity to purchase cum warrants although there is no indication on the Jarden website to that effect.

I just topped up at $1.33 as NTA at 30 June is just under $1.40 so a discount prevails notwithstanding the cum warrant circumstance. Warrants are allotted on Thursday and listed on the NZX on Friday so where they land by the end of the week will be interesting for holders.

[ronaldson]

And interestingly today the head shares are still trading at $1.33 despite going ex-warrants, meaning the market has effectively attributed no value at all to the warrants.

When we all know that this Fridays trading (when they are quoted for the first time) will tell us that was nonsense.

[Rawz]

And interestingly today the head shares are still trading at $1.33 despite going ex-warrants, meaning the market has effectively attributed no value at all to the warrants.

When we all know that this Fridays trading (when they are quoted for the first time) will tell us that was nonsense.

it is very unusual isnt it. i was thinking KFL would have hit $1.40.

[ronaldson]

it is very unusual isnt it. i was thinking KFL would have hit $1.40.

Maybe not that much given the warrant issue is just 1 : 4 head shares. But given NAV is about $1.40 for the head shares presently I don't think it is unreasonable to expect a warrant price of around 12c each by next week so certainly the issue added value in the cum warrants period which the market seemed loath to acknowledge. But that's all history now and we will soon learn how it is.

Jarden Securities have already attributed/credited the warrants under the ticker KFLWH to my accounts that held KFL (at nil value since not yet traded) notwithstanding they are not actually allotted until Thursday. That seems to be their way of telling you the head shares are now ex the entitlement.

[alokdhir]

Seems many still thinking its CUM warrant !! But also possible market waking up to the potential of KFL ahead ...as its NAV was up strongly today also on top of 2 cents increase last week ...

Warrants surely have value ...it's a 13 months Call option on great portfolio with base exercise price around $ 1.25 ...its June 2021 low . Chances are very high that these warrants will be valuable commodity next June or even before :t_up:

[ronaldson]

Seems many still thinking its CUM warrant !! But also possible market waking up to the potential of KFL ahead ...as its NAV was up strongly today also on top of 2 cents increase last week ...

Warrants surely have value ...it's a 13 months Call option on great portfolio with base exercise price around $ 1.25 ...its June 2021 low . Chances are very high that these warrants will be valuable commodity next June or even before :t_up:

Yes, and you can buy a very large number for very little outlay so they will be eminently tradeable. eg 100k can be purchased for possibly only $8-10-12k and then just a 1c upwards move equates to $1000. Even with the (small) buy/sell brokerage it doesn't look too hard to believe some easy money can be made without any intention of ultimately outlaying capital to convert the warrants on expiry.

[alokdhir]

Mr B is keenly awaiting the game of master chess which is going to be played with KFLWH ....I assume he also reckons they are worth accumulating .

Here I remember March 2021 KFLWF he did very well ...KFLWF traded as low as 3 Cents and as high as 45.5 Cents towards the end ...exercise price of $ 1.51 at that time . Now it's $ 1.25 ....so all can DYOR and try a punt or two ...:D

[alokdhir]

Exercise Price

Exercise Date / Exercise Period

Total % Exercised



KFLWG

$1.90

18 November 2022

0.17%



KFLWF

$1.51

12 March 2021

91.4%



KFLWE

$1.25

12 July 2019

87%



KFLWD

$1.21

5 May 2017

76%



KFLWC

$1.18

6 November 2015

79%



KFLWB

$0.95

23 November 2010 to 3 September 2012

39%



KFLWA

$1.00

31 March 2006 to 31 March 2008

46%

[justakiwi]

For anyone who is interested, scroll down to the bottom - Kingfish investor event on 9th August:


https://mailchi.mp/nzx.com/virtual-investor-event-19jul23?e=a16d6df77c (https://mailchi.mp/nzx.com/virtual-investor-event-19jul23?e=a16d6df77c)

[ronaldson]

Thanks JK. I just registered.

Not especially interested in Westpac (though I see they have just been announced as successful in retaining the Governments banking arrangements for a further 4 years) but AFT, ARG and ARV are shares I hold and watch daily so will attend the online event in due course.

[alokdhir]

Tomorrow is the D day ...KFLWH starts trading ...if the exercise price is around $ 1.25 then it's got 11 Cents current price difference plus add time value of say 4-5 cents ....shud list around 15 cents ....if one calculates from current NAV of $ 1.4106 then it can be stretched to even 20 Cents as fair valuation ...

Lets see how market perceives it ...after all market is always right :cool:

[Forrestdun]

It’s seems to be mentioned often that the exercise price will be $1.25 but I my view this is not important because that is the amount that will be distributed out of the NAV before the exercise date. To make is easy you should just look at strike price being $1.37, will it be higher in a year?

[justakiwi]

Will what be higher in a year? The strike price is set in concrete - $1.37 less the aggregate total of any cash dividends paid between now and then.



To make is easy you should just look at strike price being $1.37, will it be higher in a year?

[winner69]

I reckon warrants 19 cents tomorrow.

[Forrestdun]

Will the share price be higher in a year, the important part if you are planning on buying warrants which is really a call option.

[Forrestdun]

I reckon warrants 19 cents tomorrow.
My maths sucks.

[Rawz]

And if you paid that you would need the share price to be above $0.19 plus $0.12 payout before exercise plus warrant exercise cost $1.37, total $1.68 when the warrants are are exercised to end up ahead.
Think you need to take off $0.12… not add.

So W69 reckons SP in 1 year will be above $1.44

[Forrestdun]

Think you need to take off $0.12… not add.

So W69 reckons SP in 1 year will be above $1.44
Fair enough but important to note that it will pay out 8% during the year so todays price $1.36 to $1.44 is a 5.8% gain plus the 8% payout the fund will need to return 13.8% for you to be ahead if you pay $0.19.

[alokdhir]

I reckon warrants 19 cents tomorrow.

Many here are not fully understanding the value of the tool called " Warrant " ....U cud be right if our market was Options literate but ....

Current valuations based on SP can be around 15 cents but based on current NAV can be around 20 cents .

If one assumes that rates will start their downward descent surely before July end 2024 then its safe to assume that KFL NAV will be over $ 1.60 in July 2024 even after paying out 12 cents in the process of reaching July 24 to include Forrestdun's point too

KFL NAV was 1.3730 as on 31st Dec 2022 ...SP was 1.38 and NZX50G was at 11475 ....it paid two dividends of 2.79 and 2.82 and now its NAV is $ 1.4106 while NZX50G is 12000 . This is to illustrate how KFL nav can be $ 1.60 + after paying 12 cents dividend when NZX50G will be around 14000 in July 2024 ...because rates wud have started going down and market fully prices in all future cuts in advance like it fully priced all future hikes by June 2021

So expecting KFL nav of $ 1.60+ by next July end is not " Day Dreaming " ...:D

[Rawz]

Many here are not fully understanding the value of the tool called " Warrant " ....U cud be right if our market was Options literate but ....

Current valuations based on SP can be around 15 cents but based on current NAV can be around 20 cents .

If one assumes that rates will start their downward descent surely before July end 2024 then its safe to assume that KFL NAV will be over $ 1.60 in July 2024 even after paying out 12 cents in the process of reaching July 24 to include Forrestdun's point too

KFL NAV was 1.3730 as on 31st Dec 2022 ...SP was 1.38 and NZX50G was at 11475 ....it paid two dividends of 2.79 and 2.82 and now its NAV is $ 1.4106 while NZX50G is 12000 . This is to illustrate how KFL nav can be $ 1.60 + after paying 12 cents dividend when NZX50G will be around 14000 in July 2024 ...because rates wud have started going down and market fully prices in all future cuts in advance like it fully priced all future hikes by June 2021

So expecting KFL nav of $ 1.60+ by next July end is not " Day Dreaming " ...:D

If NAV going to be $1.60 next July sp probably be front running it because of the big gains. like there should be lots of momentum behind the SP. Lets say SP will be $1.65.

Means you must be putting your bid in for the warrants at $0.30 cents tomorrow morning? still leaves lots of room for comfort

[alokdhir]

If NAV going to be $1.60 next July sp probably be front running it because of the big gains. like there should be lots of momentum behind the SP. Lets say SP will be $1.65.

Means you must be putting your bid in for the warrants at $0.30 cents tomorrow morning? still leaves lots of room for comfort

No it wont be happening like that ...SP will still be at discount to NAV...it will not front run NAV normally ...

Also I have plenty of Warrants allocated to me FREE as I listened to my advise and invested loads when it was below $ 1.30 ...when many were looking for 20 cents discounts still ....

Mr B found value at 6-8% discount to NAV .

But I think these warrants can offer value for investors if trading below 15 cents ....W69 has a good estimate of 19 cents

PS : Just read Mr B's valuation of 16-18 Cents ...so anything below 15 offers value stands !!! DYOR

[justakiwi]

Annual Report out and Annual Meeting 4th August. Who is voting "yes" to increasing the directors fee pool? (purely out of curiosity)

[winner69]

Annual Report out and Annual Meeting 4th August. Who is voting "yes" to increasing the directors fee pool? (purely out of curiosity)

I’ll be voting against the 18% increase in the Directors fees

No matter what Strategic Pay said they are worth being a Director of Kingfish must be one of easiest and undemanding such roles around ….and all four Directors are Barramundi and Marlin Directors as well …probably governance by template sort of.

[ronaldson]

I almost always voted NO to increases in directors fee pools. The so-called independent comparative reports almost by design lead to recommendations for increases on a self-perpetuating basis.

But I have proxied more recently permanently to NZSA to vote on behalf of entities that I control, because I believe that escalates NZSA's influence in a wider sense, which is to everyone's benefit. I realise I can take back the proxy in any particular instance if I choose, and vote directly but would only do so if I had a view on a takeover or the like that wasn't shared by NZSA. So I am agnostic currently.

[ronaldson]

I’ll be voting against the 18% increase in the Directors fees

No matter what Strategic Pay said they are worth being a Director of Kingfish must be one of easiest and undemanding such roles around ….and all four Directors are Barramundi and Marlin Directors as well …probably governance by template sort of.

And I agree with winner69.

[justakiwi]

Thanks for the feedback. My thoughts exactly.



I’ll be voting against the 18% increase in the Directors fees

No matter what Strategic Pay said they are worth being a Director of Kingfish must be one of easiest and undemanding such roles around ….and all four Directors are Barramundi and Marlin Directors as well …probably governance by template sort of.


I almost always voted NO to increases in directors fee pools. The so-called independent comparative reports almost by design lead to recommendations for increases on a self-perpetuating basis.

But I have proxied more recently permanently to NZSA to vote on behalf of entities that I control, because I believe that escalates NZSA's influence in a wider sense, which is to everyone's benefit. I realise I can take back the proxy in any particular instance if I choose, and vote directly but would only do so if I had a view on a takeover or the like that wasn't shared by NZSA. So I am agnostic currently.


And I agree with winner69.

[SPC]

No from SPC. Nothing outstanding to be rewarded for the triple dip across the 3 listed PIEs ( the others are coming..)

[bull....]

no from me too if i still own it at that date. its a greedy enough fee machine as it is

[SPC]

Directors don't need a bigger pie. They are there for governance and keeping the manager on a short lead. The managers get a bonus if they do well and they are the guys and gals that have the investment smarts. Of course the directors will never seriously go to market for an alternative investment manager despite the 5 yearly 'review', so I wouldn't consider their duties to be strenuous. At all. Whatsoever.
No to a payrise this time.

[mshierlaw]

No it wont be happening like that ...SP will still be at discount to NAV...it will not front run NAV normally ...

Also I have plenty of Warrants allocated to me FREE as I listened to my advise and invested loads when it was below $ 1.30 ...when many were looking for 20 cents discounts still ....

Mr B found value at 6-8% discount to NAV .

But I think these warrants can offer value for investors if trading below 15 cents ....W69 has a good estimate of 19 cents

PS : Just read Mr B's valuation of 16-18 Cents ...so anything below 15 offers value stands !!! DYOR
Ĵ
Today we see the first adjustment In warrants, if this is anything to go by then....

Warrants will track current share price as......
Warrant issue 1.37 minus
Div for period 0.11 (historical)
Ex price 1.26
Compared to current SP = 1.37
Warrent value 11cents

Future predictions of share price then .... knock yourself out.

[winner69]

KFLs Z-score points to KFL price being in ‘expensive’ territory these days.

[Sideshow Bob]

Quarterly Update - https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415178

[winner69]

In the June quarter, Kingfish delivered a Gross Performance Return of 2.3% and an Adjusted NAV return of 1.9%, versus the 0.3% return of the S&P/NZX50 gross index.

Probably both numbers a bit of ‘engineering’ but great news they beat the NZ50G ….well done

[ronaldson]

In the June quarter, Kingfish delivered a Gross Performance Return of 2.3% and an Adjusted NAV return of 1.9%, versus the 0.3% return of the S&P/NZX50 gross index.

Probably both numbers a bit of ‘engineering’ but great news they beat the NZ50G ….well done

Remember that at end June the share price was still "cum warrants" and trading at $1.34, with NAV at $1.3955. Now the warrants are trading on market, and the share price is yet higher at $1.35 and last disclosed NAV $1.4072.

The warrants are really the "engineering" you reference. KFL does look after holders over the longer term with these warrant issues roughly every second year, which are an unaccounted performance factor if you don't factor these into your overall return whether you sell on-market or keep to exercise upon expiry.

[winner69]

Key metric is the Gross Performance Return of 2.3% …that’s the measure of how well or otherwise the investment team is performing.

Must have had a good June month as April was +0.8% but May was -0.5% so ending quarter at +2.3% pretty good.

[Sideshow Bob]

Here's one for you W69

AGM Preso and speeches

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415824

[winner69]

Here's one for you W69

AGM Preso and speeches

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415824

You meant to cheer me up ……pretty sad presentation that even though they try to paint a rosy picture

Given up watching

Hope they count my NO votes for the pay rise

[Sideshow Bob]

You meant to cheer me up ……pretty sad presentation that even though they try to paint a rosy picture

Given up watching

Hope they count my NO votes for the pay rise

Don't worry W69, your 'free' warrants are up 2.82% today!!

I'd imagine wouldn't be too onerous for the Board of a fund like that. Not compared to a glass manufacturer.....

[winner69]

Did just have a look in

Love that guy who ‘loved’ the rave about new investment in Vulcan and that it reminded him almost word for word of the rave about when they bought Metro Glass …and lost zillions

Kudos to him

[winner69]

The number of times that Peek guy says ‘runway’ you’d think he’d really be more into Auckland Airport than he is.

[winner69]

Chair Andy getting a pissed off …meeting taking too long …..give him a pay rise

[winner69]

Oh dear one guy votes through NZ Shareholders Association so voting for the pay rise …but I don’t think he really wanted to ….ha ha

Bit sad NZSA support such things …trying to become power brokers eh

[Sideshow Bob]

Just logged in but missed it.

All I could see was loads of people with grey hair rushing off for the "Chippie's favourite" of sausage rolls.

[winner69]

Why do punters give a round of applause when chair says meeting closed ….quite cute really.

[Baa_Baa]

Here's one for you W69

AGM Preso and speeches

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/415824

Help me here, is there anything to like about another year of dismal performance, huge losses (and yet still paying out the dividends).

[bull....]

yep paying out more in div's than they earn ? how sustainable is it ? nav continually declining due to this and the fee's . cant blame it on the portfolio its holding up so has two be div's and fee's

[winner69]

So 22% voted NO re Directors Fee increases

Doubt they will care some shareholders voted this way …they’ll say job well done, all sorted and dusted

[justakiwi]

Interesting. I thought it would have been higher than that. Was surprised the Shareholders Assn supported it.


So 22% voted NO re Directors Fee increases

Doubt they will care some shareholders voted this way …they’ll say job well done, all sorted and dusted

[bull....]

shareholders association take donations from nzx companies ..... is kingfish one ?

anyway guess they consider they deserve a pay rise for having to do extra work thru a torrid time on the markets last 2 yrs as they say

[ronaldson]

One interesting thing I learned at the meeting, speaking to a Board member privately after, is that at each Board meeting one regular agenda item is the formal review/consideration of the comments on this thread (and now the KFLWH thread) made over the intervening period since their last meeting. The Order Paper contains a full schedule/print out of the actual posts.

Bet you didn't know that. So the Board is cognisant of what we are saying on a basis other than members perhaps individually reviewing the threads in their personal capacity.

This begs the question how many other Boards of NZX listed entities take posts with regard to their entity into account on a formal basis in their deliberations. Would be good to know.

And if that is the case it would be wise to tone down/reduce the number of posts between members of this forum that are nothing more than gratuitously slagging off another member and keep to more salient tidbits/comments of direct relevance to the particular thread.

[ronaldson]

Oh dear one guy votes through NZ Shareholders Association so voting for the pay rise …but I don’t think he really wanted to ….ha ha

Bit sad NZSA support such things …trying to become power brokers eh

That was me.

NZSA try to take a balanced view in each case. When you appoint NZSA under a standing proxy you remain free to set that aside in any instance and exercise the vote in your personal capacity, and I chose not to do that on this occasion.

If you check very recent posts on the Turners Automotive thread you will see I have exercised my judgement against voting for their proposed increase despite my standing proxy, although I would have been prepared to have accepted a lesser increment.

And I did lend support to another shareholder, not in attendance at the KFL meeting, where the Chair to his credit read his/her written comments with regard to the methodologies/comparatives applied by Strategic Pay and others in establishing recommendations for the fixing of Directors fees which lead inexorably to rises without real regard to more complex circumstances.

[Cottagestyles]

One interesting thing I learned at the meeting, speaking to a Board member privately after, is that at each Board meeting one regular agenda item is the formal review/consideration of the comments on this thread (and now the KFLWH thread) made over the intervening period since their last meeting. The Order Paper contains a full schedule/print out of the actual posts.

Bet you didn't know that. So the Board is cognisant of what we are saying on a basis other than members perhaps individually reviewing the threads in their personal capacity.

This begs the question how many other Boards of NZX listed entities take posts with regard to their entity into account on a formal basis in their deliberations. Would be good to know.

And if that is the case it would be wise to tone down/reduce the number of posts between members of this forum that are nothing more than gratuitously slagging off another member and keep to more salient tidbits/comments of direct relevance to the particular thread.

Thanks for sharing that interaction 😊 Nice insight into a board spending some time keeping fingers on the pulse out there.

[winner69]

That was me.

NZSA try to take a balanced view in each case. When you appoint NZSA under a standing proxy you remain free to set that aside in any instance and exercise the vote in your personal capacity, and I chose not to do that on this occasion.

If you check very recent posts on the Turners Automotive thread you will see I have exercised my judgement against voting for their proposed increase despite my standing proxy, although I would have been prepared to have accepted a lesser increment.

And I did lend support to another shareholder, not in attendance at the KFL meeting, where the Chair to his credit read his/her written comments with regard to the methodologies/comparatives applied by Strategic Pay and others in establishing recommendations for the fixing of Directors fees which lead inexorably to rises without real regard to more complex circumstances.

Yes credit to them for reading out those comments from that shareholder …could have easily just ‘overlooked’ them and said nothing.

[winner69]

Review of ST posts - Maybe they download the posts and get ChatGPT to give an overview ……that would be cool

Might try that myself for a laugh

[Rawz]

That’s interesting Ronaldson, thanks for sharing.

They must love alokdhir lol

[winner69]

See NAV as at yesterday 1.3768

Going down at a rate of knots ….about 2% over last month

Some guys in Texas would say that’s an annualised 24% fall

Let’s hope things get better as that guy at the ASM was so confident of success.

[777]

Of course it's gone down. Haven't you seen the rest of the NZ market drop in the past week? You wouldn't expect anything different.

[winner69]

Of course it's gone down. Haven't you seen the rest of the NZ market drop in the past week? You wouldn't expect anything different.

Fair enough but KFL seems to be going down faster than the NZX

My expectations of them as a fund manager must be too high

[ronaldson]

Fair enough but KFL seems to be going down faster than the NZX

My expectations of them as a fund manager must be too high

I think the first problem for FF as KFL's manager is that the number of NZX listings (to which they are confined in this instance by their mandate) are few, and too many lack any scale/liquidity.

So they look for those with potentially long growth runway and having taken a position have essentially no real option but to hold. What you see is very little active movement in their portfolio from one year to the next. It seems like they added Vulcan Steel mostly just because Pushpay was taken over and delisted and they were forced to reallocate.

BRM and MLN offer significantly more opportunity for active management but even then, with a Board looking over your shoulder, trading wouldn't be easy. And if you need to consult then even 24hr can be fatal - as with Signature Bank it just happens too quick and in another time zone.

[Rawz]

KFL should invest in BRM

[bull....]

I think the first problem for FF as KFL's manager is that the number of NZX listings (to which they are confined in this instance by their mandate) are few, and too many lack any scale/liquidity.

So they look for those with potentially long growth runway and having taken a position have essentially no real option but to hold. What you see is very little active movement in their portfolio from one year to the next. It seems like they added Vulcan Steel mostly just because Pushpay was taken over and delisted and they were forced to reallocate.

BRM and MLN offer significantly more opportunity for active management but even then, with a Board looking over your shoulder, trading wouldn't be easy. And if you need to consult then even 24hr can be fatal - as with Signature Bank it just happens too quick and in another time zone.

yep agree nz portfolio is basically a buy and hold portfolio with little scope to add meaningful companies for big growth upside from the nzx. in the mean time nav will continue to decline each time they pay -out dividends which are not covered by revenue gains in the portfolio

[Sideshow Bob]

yep agree nz portfolio is basically a buy and hold portfolio with little scope to add meaningful companies for big growth upside from the nzx. in the mean time nav will continue to decline each time they pay -out dividends which are not covered by revenue gains in the portfolio

And then warrants which don't increase the NAV but brings in more cash......depending on how many are exercised, by anything up to about 20%. Makes holders feel like they got something for nothing.....

[bull....]

And then warrants which don't increase the NAV but brings in more cash......depending on how many are exercised, by anything up to about 20%. Makes holders feel like they got something for nothing.....

i view the warrant issue as an attempt to get some money in the door to pay div's bit like an insurance policy if the portfolio does not deliver gains by the due date and also means they wont have to sell stock to fund the div

if the portfolio does not gain in value to fund the divs the nav will fall below exercise price of warrants i reckon by due date

div unsustainable in my view if there is a prolonged flat market or declining market

[ronaldson]

i view the warrant issue as an attempt to get some money in the door to pay div's bit like an insurance policy if the portfolio does not deliver gains by the due date and also means they wont have to sell stock to fund the div

if the portfolio does not gain in value to fund the divs the nav will fall below exercise price of warrants i reckon by due date

div unsustainable in my view if there is a prolonged flat market or declining market

Of course they do have a share buy-back scheme for whenever the discount to NAV on-market increases to the trigger point - is that 8%? And if shares are acquired in that manner they are held as treasury stock to be allocated at the next quarterly dividend date to those participating in the DRIP. So there is a natural floor under the share price in that regard, and doing so is an inherently profitable investment for KFL.

[ronaldson]

The Jarden website screen for my holdings has been showing KFL today as being subject to a Price Sensitive announcement, but the only actual announcement released to NZX is the monthly newsletter update to end July which is clearly not price sensitive. Is anyone else experiencing this? Is it just a Jarden Securities issue or has the announcement been released with an inappropriate designation?

[winner69]

The Jarden website screen for my holdings has been showing KFL today as being subject to a Price Sensitive announcement, but the only actual announcement released to NZX is the monthly newsletter update to end July which is clearly not price sensitive. Is anyone else experiencing this? Is it just a Jarden Securities issue or has the announcement been released with an inappropriate designation?

Monthly / Quarterly updates always seem to be marked price sensitive on NZX

No idea who decides but no doubt some protocols around it …….could be a ploy for you to read them lol

[blackcap]

Monthly / Quarterly updates always seem to be marked price sensitive on NZX

No idea who decides but no doubt some protocols around it …….could be a ploy for you to read them lol

I have spoken to the NZX about this. It is frustrating. Everything CRP seems to issue is also labelled price sensitive. It is becoming a joke.

[winner69]

Another week passes and KFL’s NAV down again

Suppose just following the market so no worries

No doubt Matt hard at work fine tuning the portfolio ….he’ll need to work out what to sell for the upcoming divie.

[alokdhir]

Another week passes and KFL’s NAV down again

Suppose just following the market so no worries

No doubt Matt hard at work fine tuning the portfolio ….he’ll need to work out what to sell for the upcoming divie.

Just go back two decades and see how they managed GFC times ...nothing special ...just keep doing the same stuff and all will be fine ...just like it happened after GFC when SP reached 90 Cents ie 22% discount to NAV of $ 1.12 ....now the NAV is still $ 1.37 even after paying dividends / distributions for all those years ...hopefully Bull is reading as he keeps saying dividend cant be maintained or they take warrant money to pay dividends ....just showing how little he understands KFL's modus operandi . IF KFL cud not only survive GFC then it sure can survive current times also .

They have appox $ 9 million quarterly divi which only 57% take in cash ie about $ 5.5 million cash outflow per qtr / get about $ 3 million as actual dividends of stocks in portfolio ...rest they have 3.8% cash in portfolio which translates to $17 millions or so to tide over difficult quarters .

I have no doubt they are very professional managers and they know how to manage funds very efficiently . No need worry ...just enjoy the dividends ...which naturally reduce as NAV goes down

[bull....]

Just go back two decades and see how they managed GFC times ...nothing special ...just keep doing the same stuff and all will be fine ...just like it happened after GFC when SP reached 90 Cents ie 22% discount to NAV of $ 1.12 ....now the NAV is still $ 1.37 even after paying dividends / distributions for all those years ...hopefully Bull is reading as he keeps saying dividend cant be maintained or they take warrant money to pay dividends ....just showing how little he understands KFL's modus operandi . IF KFL cud not only survive GFC then it sure can survive current times also .

They have appox $ 9 million quarterly divi which only 57% take in cash ie about $ 5.5 million cash outflow per qtr / get about $ 3 million as actual dividends of stocks in portfolio ...rest they have 3.8% cash in portfolio which translates to $17 millions or so to tide over difficult quarters .

I have no doubt they are very professional managers and they know how to manage funds very efficiently . No need worry ...just enjoy the dividends ...which naturally reduce as NAV goes down

gfc till 2022 was marked by massive money printing which gave kfl tailwind of rising stock prices and nav to support increasing div's.
now the last 2 yrs odd kfl has headwinds they cant hide behind rising stock prices to support dividends anymore so i stick with my belief warrants will end worthless and they need to reduce div's

[SPC]

Just musing that a 'smart' Bull looking for 'opportunities' would be a few steps BEHIND the herd rather than walking ahead? 😉 just saying..

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir …how they calculate what to pay out as a divie

One announced today a bit less than last year …no pay rise again

[777]

Hey alokdhir …how they calculate what to pay out as a divie

One announced today a bit less than last year …no pay rise again

2% of NTA. Ranged between 1.37 an 1.41 over the pst 3 months. Either an average value used or a median.

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir …how they calculate what to pay out as a divie

One announced today a bit less than last year …no pay rise again

" DividendsIn June 2009, Kingfish announced a new long-term distribution policy. Under the policy Kingfish will pay shareholders 2% per quarter of its average NAV.
The payments are made in March, June, September and December.


June 2023
2.82cps


March 2023
2.79cps


December 2022
2.86cps


September 2022
2.83cps


June 2022
3.16cps


March 2022
3.55cps


December 2021
3.67cps



As mentioned above is their dividend policy since June 2009 and its working pretty well for investors ...U get both DRP option if one is looking for pure growth

Dividend is NAV based thus it gets reduced in down markets automatically

[alokdhir]

gfc till 2022 was marked by massive money printing which gave kfl tailwind of rising stock prices and nav to support increasing div's.
now the last 2 yrs odd kfl has headwinds they cant hide behind rising stock prices to support dividends anymore so i stick with my belief warrants will end worthless and they need to reduce div's

All I can say is to check after 2 years mate ...warrants worthless ? Thats very bearish long term call mate ...July 2024 is very far and lots of things can happen ...mostly positive for markets hopefully ...I am surely more positive then u ...I think they will be worth 15 cents plus ...lets see how things pan out

[ronaldson]

gfc till 2022 was marked by massive money printing which gave kfl tailwind of rising stock prices and nav to support increasing div's.
now the last 2 yrs odd kfl has headwinds they cant hide behind rising stock prices to support dividends anymore so i stick with my belief warrants will end worthless and they need to reduce div's

Quarterly dividend of 2.79cps announced, to be paid on 22 September 2023. This supports the view that around 11cps in aggregate will be paid as dividends over the four quarters prior to the warrants exercise date, which indicates/confirms an ultimate strike price of $1.26 for the head shares.

As readers of the KFLWH thread will know, I have 200k reasons to hope the warrants end at a value over 10.5c so that requires head shares to be around $1.37 or higher next 24 July. It is definitely possible the warrants will expire worthless but that is a big call against Mr Market from this point given KFL is effectively a basket of NZX listings concentrated upon those deemed to have growth runways. I know there is some malaise in the market currently but really are the FY 30 June listed entity announcements we are presently experiencing all that bad? And the election uncertainty will be over in a few weeks and the outcome could easily change the vibe.

NAV is still $1.37 now so if that is maintained it is the extent of the discount to NAV that KFL is trading at that is weighing on the outcome. It is NAV that determines the dividend declarations however and many holders of this share are simply looking for PIE income. Any pressure coming off interest rates between now and expiry will be positive for KFL yield on a comparative basis with alternatives such as bonds and term deposits.

In my view plenty of hope for upside rather than pessimism on the downside and lots of water to flow under the bridge meantime.

[Rawz]

Good post Ronaldson. Im on the hook with the warrants too and deep underwater currently, if it wasnt for my gains on 2CC my portfolio would be hurting. I talk to a lot of SMEs and if National wins the election i think it will do wonders for the country. A lot of negativity out there due to current govt. Lets see what happens.

Also need to remember SPs are forward looking so warrant exercise date next July will be based on SPs of MFT, FPH, SUM, IFT etc looking into 2025 and beyond

[winner69]

Another week passes and Kingfish NAV down again …this week to $1.3485 ….who would have believed that it would go that low so quick

And I note Fisher have reduced SUM holding by 3.5 shares

[bull....]

have to pay upcoming div ?

[Not too Flash]

Another week passes and Kingfish NAV down again …this week to $1.3485 ….who would have believed that it would go that low so quick

And I note Fisher have reduced SUM holding by 3.5 shares

The same as the NZX50 in the last month - 4%

Hardly surprising ...

[777]

The same as the NZX50 in the last month - 4%

Hardly surprising ...

Some have trouble understanding that.

[alokdhir]

Some have trouble understanding that.

All have their favourites and punching bags ...W69 / Bull surely dont like KFL and its value to investors

KFL has been distributing 2% NAV since June 2009 while still managed to increase capital to some extent ...but Bull still not convinced that system can work long term ...even after 14 years of it doing well ....maybe his long term is 1 year ...lol

[FTG]

Question for the KFL disciples please.

For a long term buy & hold Investor who wasn't trading KFL (as in selling the Warrants, or converting the Warrants and then selling the Shares), what is the IRR, since inception?

Cheers in advance.

[ronaldson]

Question for the KFL disciples please.

For a long term buy & hold Investor who wasn't trading KFL (as in selling the Warrants, or converting the Warrants and then selling the Shares), what is the IRR, since inception?

Cheers in advance.

I can't answer with any certainty but did reference the Kingfish website. A graph is available showing Adjusted NAV Return from March 2004 (listing) to September 2023, and also TSR (Total Shareholder Return) over the same period.

Given a $1.00 start point, TSR has reached $6.00 and Adjusted NAV seems to be around $6.20. Definitions of these are as follows:-

TSR = The Return which combines share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the Company pursuant to the DRIP and that holders exercise their warrants (if they are in the money) on the exercise date.

Adjusted NAV Return = the underlying performance of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and AFTER expenses, fees and tax.


If we simply revert to a % being the last 5 years performance calculated on an annualised basis we get the following:-

Adjusted NAV Return 8.1%

TSR 9.1%

And by comparison the S&P NZX 50G Index yeilded 6.2% annualised over that period.


I don't think you can legitimately exclude the warrants from any calculation because exercise of warrants on each possible occasion necessarily reduces the NAV per share of all other shares on issue at that time, to a greater or lesser extent depending upon the number of warrants exercised and the inherent value available on the exercise date.

Apart from all that you need to factor in the PIE status of dividends, the potential value of which depends upon the holders upper marginal tax rate, and also the DRIP discount has value. For example it usually benefits a larger holder to take the DRIP on each occasion and if cash is needed to sell the equivalent number of shares received on market to achieve that capital sum after trade cost. The margin may be slim but it is mostly obtainable, and since you can sell any time after the record date then even with T+2 settlement you should have money in the hand even before the actual dividend payment date.

[FTG]

I can't answer with any certainty but did reference the Kingfish website. A graph is available showing Adjusted NAV Return from March 2004 (listing) to September 2023, and also TSR (Total Shareholder Return) over the same period.

Given a $1.00 start point, TSR has reached $6.00 and Adjusted NAV seems to be around $6.20. Definitions of these are as follows:-

TSR = The Return which combines share price performance, the warrant price performance, the net value of converting any warrants into shares, and the dividends paid to shareholders. It assumes all dividends are reinvested in the Company pursuant to the DRIP and that holders exercise their warrants (if they are in the money) on the exercise date.

Adjusted NAV Return = the underlying performance of the investment portfolio adjusted for dividends (and other capital management initiatives) and AFTER expenses, fees and tax.


If we simply revert to a % being the last 5 years performance calculated on an annualised basis we get the following:-

Adjusted NAV Return 8.1%

TSR 9.1%

And by comparison the S&P NZX 50G Index yeilded 6.2% annualised over that period.


I don't think you can legitimately exclude the warrants from any calculation because exercise of warrants on each possible occasion necessarily reduces the NAV per share of all other shares on issue at that time, to a greater or lesser extent depending upon the number of warrants exercised and the inherent value available on the exercise date.

Apart from all that you need to factor in the PIE status of dividends, the potential value of which depends upon the holders upper marginal tax rate, and also the DRIP discount has value. For example it usually benefits a larger holder to take the DRIP on each occasion and if cash is needed to sell the equivalent number of shares received on market to achieve that capital sum after trade cost. The margin may be slim but it is mostly obtainable, and since you can sell any time after the record date then even with T+2 settlement you should have money in the hand even before the actual dividend payment date.

Thanks for taking the time to summarise Ronaldson.

Gosh, I was being rather lazy not referring to the KF website myself - apologies!

I'm in agreement with your rationale re not excluding Warrants from any meaningful TSR calculation.

But, I'm not entirely in agreement with KF's stance of measuring TSR based on the assumption that all divi's are reinvested back into the Co.

Thanks again.

[bull....]

getting savaged today :scared: might not ever see 1.30 again ?

[ronaldson]

getting savaged today :scared: might not ever see 1.30 again ?

Isn't it ex the quarterly dividend today?

[dabsman]

Isn't it ex the quarterly dividend today?

Yep ex 2.79c

[Sideshow Bob]

Isn't it ex the quarterly dividend today?

Yep.

Although BRM and MLN are ex-div today and at this stage they are unchanged.

[alokdhir]

Yep.

Although BRM and MLN are ex-div today and at this stage they are unchanged.

As KFL has better liquidity and these 5 days Vol weighted average decide DRP strike ...its always been under pressure 5 days of ex ...nothing new as large holders on DRP try to get better strike price

[mike2020]

I am curious though. Why is brm trading so close to nta lately?

[alokdhir]

I am curious though. Why is brm trading so close to nta lately?

People are more positive on Australian stocks comes to mind ...also new warrants issue maybe in next few months

[dabsman]

Definitely a warrant issue coming

[alokdhir]

Todays Vol/wt average is $ 1.259..wow ...at this rate DRP strike shud be $ 1.221 ...wonderful :t_up:

PS : I know still 4 more days to go ...but was just wondering !!

[Mrbuyit]

Todays Vol/wt average is $ 1.259..wow ...at this rate DRP strike shud be $ 1.221 ...wonderful !

Great for those of us in the DRP, perhaps not so great if you have a fist full of warrants.

[alokdhir]

Great for those of us in the DRP, perhaps not so great if you have a fist full of warrants.

Why bother about warrants now ...its a long game which shud work out alright by next July ...fingers crossed :cool:

[winner69]

Why bother about warrants now ...its a long game which shud work out alright by next July ...fingers crossed :cool:

Long game now eh mate …KFL down to 124 ……and nobody wanting the warrants …the clock is ticking

[SPC]

Well mate there's a lot of 'ticking' to go until next year so rather than dwelling on it why not find something else to trouble your mind ?. And we'll look at the clock again next year.

[777]

Long game now eh mate …KFL down to 124 ……and nobody wanting the warrants …the clock is ticking

Ticking for what?

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=winner69;1020864]Long game now eh mate …KFL down to 124 ……and nobody wanting the warrants …the clock is ticking[/QUOTE

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-eighth-successive-fall-for-nzx50-index/MJZZBM7TEFBELDO66SPPXX7JR4/ (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-eighth-successive-fall-for-nzx50-index/MJZZBM7TEFBELDO66SPPXX7JR4/)

This shud satisfy your query mate !! :cool:

[bull....]

gfc till 2022 was marked by massive money printing which gave kfl tailwind of rising stock prices and nav to support increasing div's.
now the last 2 yrs odd kfl has headwinds they cant hide behind rising stock prices to support dividends anymore so i stick with my belief warrants will end worthless and they need to reduce div's

still stick to my forecast warrants end worthless. they need to cut dividends

[Rawz]

still stick to my forecast warrants end worthless. they need to cut dividends

its certainly looking that way and I hold a bunch. Each paper profit i notch up on 2CC is then partially eaten up by paper loss on these darn warrants. Lets see the wash up next year.

[bull....]

its certainly looking that way and I hold a bunch. Each paper profit i notch up on 2CC is then partially eaten up by paper loss on these darn warrants. Lets see the wash up next year.

as winner says tick tok tick tok with rates staying high for longer growth will stay down easy for another yr i reckon

[Rawz]

as winner says tick tok tick tok with rates staying high for longer growth will stay down easy for another yr i reckon

possibly... if winner knew he would short MFT, FPH, SUM, IFT etc but bet he hasnt lol

[Mrbuyit]

Todays Vol/wt average is $ 1.259..wow ...at this rate DRP strike shud be $ 1.221 ...wonderful :t_up:

PS : I know still 4 more days to go ...but was just wondering !!

Any idea the VWAP for the period put the strike under 1.20?

[dabsman]

Any idea the VWAP for the period put the strike under 1.20?

DRP are at a 3% discount to the current market price (being the weighted average selling price on the first five trading days on which the Shares trade ex-entitlement for the relevant dividend or distribution).

[mike2020]

Bull I thought you bought warrants?

[bull....]

Bull I thought you bought warrants?

i sold them ages ago i told everyone i sold warrants. i held the kfl head shares too but i sold them at 1.34 after the one before last div based on my thinking of there going down some and the div problem

[winner69]

No comment todays action lol

[Mrbuyit]

DRP are at a 3% discount to the current market price (being the weighted average selling price on the first five trading days on which the Shares trade ex-entitlement for the relevant dividend or distribution).


Hi yes thanks, I'm aware of the calculation but I don't have access to what the 5 days trading has averaged out to be. I thought someone might have been keeping track, to see if there is a viable option to run with the DRP take the 3% discount and time a sale if equivalent shares held prior to the reinvestment notice. Probably better to have done what @bull did..

[alokdhir]

Any idea the VWAP for the period put the strike under 1.20?

As per my estimate it's going to be $ 1.221 ....will find out today

[alokdhir]

No comment todays action lol

Commenting on daily price action of a retirement fund ...U must be very free these days mate ...lol

Today NAV will be revealed ...it will show huge discount going on currently ...maybe U will take advantage ...Bull is already trading KFL also sold at 1.34 two divs back ...we got two divs worth 6 cents so not too much difference even at current depressed SP ...but he still feels he did great ...good on him :p

IMO FWIW KFL is great income stock ....ticks all boxes for me at least ...but then I dont have either the aspirations or need to score big speculative gains quickly to win any BET ....lol

Holding it since 2010 and plan to hold till the end ....they are doing just as good or bad as many star stocks of NZX . It's a back your truck time not unloading time but then all have different ideas ....Higher for longer is also one year only ....I think KFL can survive that year too :t_up:

[777]

As per my estimate it's going to be $ 1.221 ....will find out today


Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) advises that the share price used to calculate
entitlements under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (the DRP) has been set at
$1.2191.

[alokdhir]

Kingfish Limited (Kingfish) advises that the share price used to calculate
entitlements under the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (the DRP) has been set at
$1.2191.

Even better then I thought ...almost 7% discount to NAV ...:t_up:

[mike2020]

Even better then I thought ...almost 7% discount to NAV ...:t_up:

Last announcement they hold no treasury stock, I thought they buy at 6% discount now?

[777]

Last announcement they hold no treasury stock, I thought they buy at 6% discount now?

NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1637 HRS Kingfish Limited

CORPACT: KFL: KFL announces variation to the share buyback programme

17 November 2022

Kingfish Limited announces variation to the share buyback programme

On 18 October 2022, and in accordance with Listing Rule 4.14.2, Kingfish
announced its intention to continue its share buyback programme of Kingfish
ordinary shares in compliance with section 65 of the Companies Act 1993.

The Share Buyback Policy, referred to in the 18 October 2022 NZX announcement
has been amended, such that from 17 November 2022, Kingfish will only buy
back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after
adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published
net asset value, is greater than 6%.

Andy Coupe
Chair
Kingfish Limited

[alokdhir]

Last announcement they hold no treasury stock, I thought they buy at 6% discount now?

Yes they start buyback at 6% discount after adjusting for NZX50G changes ....also it's not applicable for DRP share issue price which is $ 1.2191 ...I reckon around 7% discount to today's NAV

[winner69]

Commenting on daily price action of a retirement fund ...U must be very free these days mate ...lol
:

Save me alokdhir …took Speedy Az for walk along the waterfront this morning …..stopped at the NZX HQ and looked at the ticker they have rolling around the building ….Speedy asked can we move on and I said not until KFL cames up ….and then when it showed $1.24 I told Speedy that’s not too bad mate

[alokdhir]

Save me alokdhir …took Speedy Az for walk along the waterfront this morning …..stopped at the NZX HQ and looked at the ticker they have rolling around the building ….Speedy asked can we move on and I said not until KFL cames up ….and then when it showed $1.24 I told Speedy that’s not too bad mate

Fisher Fund managers will be very flattered with your positive interest in their humble offering ....lol

[777]

Updated NTA

Date 13/9/2023 6/9/2023
KFL undiluted NAV $1.3134 $1.3194
Share price close $1.23 $1.27
Discount 6% 4%

[mshierlaw]

Yes they start buyback at 6% discount after adjusting for NZX50G changes ....also it's not applicable for DRP share issue price which is $ 1.2191 ...I reckon around 7% discount to today's NAV

I have never been a fan of DRP, you can normally use price fluctuation to get a good deal on purchase. Guess if the price is consistantly going up then previous statement should be disputed, but this is not currently the case.

Example

DRP 1.22
SP 1.24 minus
DIV 0.028 (net)
= Hmmmm & NZX has not bottomed yet. I would rather take my chances on the market for next purchase.

Appreciate set & forget appeal for some investors, but I'm not one of them.

[mike2020]

[QUOTE=mshierlaw;1021157]I have never been a fan of DRP, you can normally use price fluctuation to get a good deal on purchase. Guess if the price is consistantly going up then previous statement should be disputed, but this is not currently the case.

Example

DRP 1.22
SP 1.24 minus
DIV 0.028 (net)
= Hmmmm & NZX has not bottomed yet. I would rather take my chances on the market for next purchase.

Appreciate set & forget appeal for some investors, but I'm not one of them.[/QUOTE

It hit around this level October last year, if you had bought then you would have already collected 11.26 cents plus your 1.24 making todays value 1.36 to you or with div reinvestment you would have 1.11 shares with an asset backing or nta of $1.457 earning 8%

give or take

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=mshierlaw;1021157]I have never been a fan of DRP, you can normally use price fluctuation to get a good deal on purchase. Guess if the price is consistantly going up then previous statement should be disputed, but this is not currently the case.

Example

DRP 1.22
SP 1.24 minus
DIV 0.028 (net)
= Hmmmm & NZX has not bottomed yet. I would rather take my chances on the market for next purchase.

Appreciate set & forget appeal for some investors, but I'm not one of them.[/QUOTE

It hit around this level October last year, if you had bought then you would have already collected 11.26 cents plus your 1.24 making todays value 1.36 to you or with div reinvestment you would have 1.11 shares with an asset backing or nta of $1.457 earning 8%

give or take

Many people don't understand this dynamics of KFL ...U did well to explain to naysayers ....DRP option adds further value especially in a downtrending market

PS : Also I am very happy with its portfolio ...great stocks and will surely outperform market when it turns sometime ahead !

[winner69]

Well done Kingfish investment team …great effort in August outperforming the NZX 50 by a sizeable amount

In August, Kingfish’s gross performance return was down 3.6% and the adjusted NAV return was also down 3.6%. This compares to the benchmark S&P/NZX50G, which was down 4.2%.

I still wonder how hard this guy Matt Peek has to work…seems a pretty easy job …..if he works from home possibly spends a bit time down the local cafe or something

[mike2020]

I think he probably has a healthy life/work/family balance.
That said you do have to front up at the roadshow and explain yourself.

[alokdhir]

Well done Kingfish investment team …great effort in August outperforming the NZX 50 by a sizeable amount

In August, Kingfish’s gross performance return was down 3.6% and the adjusted NAV return was also down 3.6%. This compares to the benchmark S&P/NZX50G, which was down 4.2%.

I still wonder how hard this guy Matt Peek has to work…seems a pretty easy job …..if he works from home possibly spends a bit time down the local cafe or something

Not everyday u see such posts from our resident Guru W69 ...but then not everyday , at least recently , KFL portfolio has outperformed anything ...lol

Faith in KFL and its portfolio will be eventually rewarded ...:t_up:

[winner69]

Not everyday u see such posts from our resident Guru W69 ...but then not everyday , at least recently , KFL portfolio has outperformed anything ...lol

Faith in KFL and its portfolio will be eventually rewarded ...:t_up:

This part of update is truely amazing

New Zealand shares were down during August with only eight companies in the benchmark index in positive territory. Four of those are Kingfish holdings.

As you say that Matt picks winners :t_up:

Impressive

[winner69]

In August …worst oerformers

Vista down 16%
Delegat down 10%
A2 down 9%
F&P down down 8%
Auckland Airport down 7%


Jeez, tough month …… amazing Kingfish were only down 3.6%

[winner69]

Another week ……and NAV down again …..below $1.30 now

Suppose that’s good

[bull....]

yep if nzx down another 10% by xmas and with div taken off .... $1 by xmas ?

[777]

yep if nzx down another 10% by xmas and with div taken off .... $1 by xmas ?

And if the NZX is up, what happens then?

[bull....]

And if the NZX is up, what happens then?

thats the bet isnt it

[mike2020]

I can't imagine they ever cut the div, its just part of the deal, ingrained. It would be like a bank cutting your TD interest.

On the plus side maybe my oca order gets hit today. It been there all week. Why is it only SUM and RYM that respond to these snp500 bad days?

[alokdhir]

yep if nzx down another 10% by xmas and with div taken off .... $1 by xmas ?

Long term average of NZX returns is 4.9% in 100 days after completion of elections ...so if that happens ...NAV will be over $ 1.40 shattering your dreams ...but even if your dream of $ 1 happens nothing much will change for investors ...if people are overly concerned about distributions eating into capital like you then they can opt into DRP and let it become growth stock then income stock ...

Just to jog your long term memory ...in March 2010 it was at 90 Cents mate ...so if you are trying to scare people that $ 1 is end of the world then ...we have seen it before and seen $ 2.12 also after that while kept getting 2% of NAV every quarter ...

Higher for longer will also not last like lower forever did not ....Premium did not last ...big discount to NAV will also not last ...thats the cycle of life .

Only hiccup is dividend getting reduced but that saves erosion of capital at lows of the NAV ...thus we need practice austerity...lol

[bull....]

Long term average of NZX returns is 4.9% in 100 days after completion of elections ...so if that happens ...NAV will be over $ 1.40 shattering your dreams ...but even if your dream of $ 1 happens nothing much will change for investors ...if people are overly concerned about distributions eating into capital like you then they can opt into DRP and let it become growth stock then income stock ...

Just to jog your long term memory ...in March 2010 it was at 90 Cents mate ...so if you are trying to scare people that $ 1 is end of the world then ...we have seen it before and seen $ 2.12 also after that while kept getting 2% of NAV every quarter ...

Higher for longer will also not last like lower forever did not ....Premium did not last ...big discount to NAV will also not last ...thats the cycle of life .

Only hiccup is dividend getting reduced but that saves erosion of capital at lows of the NAV ...thus we need practice austerity...lol

sure election data is relevant but more than likely irrelevant if wall st keeps going down.
dont know how 2010 on is relevant , todays environment is totally different to that period so is of no relevance really in trying to guess the future
the fact remains its a bet you win if nzx goes up i win if nzx goes down
capital erosion is not made up from dividends and if it is one day you have lost the time opportunity of making money elsewhere
i still stick to my belief they cannot keep selling stock to pay div's without causing more nav erosion esp if nzx goes down

[mike2020]

Its a belief? I thought you had done some math or had a formula of sorts.

[SPC]

Any Bull who walks ahead of his herd has clearly not done the maths on his chances of success..

[bull....]

Its a belief? I thought you had done some math or had a formula of sorts.

its all in the annual reports

[777]

thats the bet isnt it

So you think the NZX is doomed and all the companies that KFL hold are on the way out for good? Of course you would not invested in the the NZX at all because of this. Is that the case?

[bull....]

So you think the NZX is doomed and all the companies that KFL hold are on the way out for good? Of course you would not invested in the the NZX at all because of this. Is that the case?

lol yep nzx going down , i dont know why you think all kfl companies going belly up thats bit of a silly comment. i own ift and used to own kfl but obviously not now as i believe its going down how far who knows but over half kfl portfolio is going down some

[alokdhir]

lol yep nzx going down , i dont know why you think all kfl companies going belly up thats bit of a silly comment. i own ift and used to own kfl but obviously not now as i believe its going down how far who knows but over half kfl portfolio is going down some

If U had been talking against holding KFL when it was commanding 22 cents premium to NAV and SP was over $ 2 then I wud have agreed with you that its a time to sell KFL or generally the market but at present I see more upside potential then downside risk even in the medium term ...long term its always up all know .

So will it make sense to get out of market at present ....IMHO ...I dont think so ...but you have your thoughts and your own ways ...not all can see the world thru your eyes mate ...but thanks for your perspective

[mike2020]

Why is KFL heading back towards it's NTA? Seems at odds with the rest of todays market.

[winner69]

Another good quarter for Kingfish ….outperforming the NZX50 Gross though not by much

In the September quarter, Kingfish delivered a gross performance return of −4.9% versus the −5.2% return of the S&P/NZX50 gross index.

Investment manager doing well


Sept month mudt have been a bummer ….July month +1.2% and August -4.2% and sept -heaps% Giving quarter -4.9%

[alokdhir]

Eventually they will get there ...ie outperforming index ...sooner then latter ...maybe Bull will be disappointed :p

[bull....]

Eventually they will get there ...ie outperforming index ...sooner then latter ...maybe Bull will be disappointed :p

i think i mentioned once nz50 will re=test covid lows at some stage :scared:

[winner69]

Using NZX50 as their benchmark seems a bit of a cop out to me

Like let’s leave FBU and SPK out ….which of power companies do we pick …..we are not into property stocks …….better take a punt on a few minnows like VSL and VGL …and then decide the weightings

Suppose meets the criteria of being ‘active’

Must be hard work for Matt

[alokdhir]

Maybe it's easier to make big bucks going in and out of cyclical stocks like HLG / TRA / WHS / MHJ ....but maybe thats not their style ...they choose very high quality growth stocks to hold longer term till they realise their full potential ...they were doing fine and I have faith they will do fine in future too ...let these difficult times pass ...once Inflation under control and their main stocks like MFT / SUM / FPH come out of hibernation then better times can again be seen on the horizon ...at present only IFT flying high and keeping them barely over water :p

PS : As SR said $ 100 being offered for less is a good thing then not ...at present thats the case for KFL too !!!

[mike2020]

i think i mentioned once nz50 will re=test covid lows at some stage :scared:

Are you trying to get sr excited?

Imagine getting divs doubled on a few goodies. Nice.

[bull....]

Are you trying to get sr excited?

Imagine getting divs doubled on a few goodies. Nice.

i dont know why people get excited about dividend yield , why its exciting to think 8-10% yield is amazing whats not amazing is the erosion of your capital which wipes out your dividend and more

[mike2020]

i dont know why people get excited about dividend yield , why its exciting to think 8-10% yield is amazing whats not amazing is the erosion of your capital which wipes out your dividend and more
No your talking a doubling of divs to 16-20%. Half price sale on great earners. Something to look forward to. Reinvested that would be great. I think I will email Warren hes going to love this idea. 😀

Personally I do prefer seeing green on holdings.

[ronaldson]

NAV per share today is $1.2319. When last published on 18 October it was $1.2795. So down 4.8c in just a week!

The NZX is confronting an abyss. The KFL portfolio is mainly "blue chip" stuff, and there seems no end in sight to the current market pessimism.

What can Luxon do? He obviously needs a hat with lots of rabbits inside. And the final vote count to go his way.

[mshierlaw]

NAV per share today is $1.2319. When last published on 18 October it was $1.2795. So down 4.8c in just a week!

The NZX is confronting an abyss. The KFL portfolio is mainly "blue chip" stuff, and there seems no end in sight to the current market pessimism.

What can Luxon do? He obviously needs a hat with lots of rabbits inside. And the final vote count to go his way.

Famous quote .......

14811

[Rawz]

NAV per share today is $1.2319. When last published on 18 October it was $1.2795. So down 4.8c in just a week!

The NZX is confronting an abyss. The KFL portfolio is mainly "blue chip" stuff, and there seems no end in sight to the current market pessimism.

What can Luxon do? He obviously needs a hat with lots of rabbits inside. And the final vote count to go his way.

It’s the end of days

[alokdhir]

KFL and its holders have seen many " end of days " times ...most recent was in March 2020 when its SP hit $ 1.05 ....so I am pretty hopeful that if good times didnt last then bad will also disappear eventually ...need to hang in there and use this opportunity wisely

[Rawz]

KFL and its holders have seen many " end of days " times ...most recent was in March 2020 when its SP hit $ 1.05 ....so I am pretty hopeful that if good times didnt last then bad will also disappear eventually ...need to hang in there and use this opportunity wisely

Wouldn’t it be great if when/if the crash comes KFL use leverage to buy up MFT, IFT, FPH etc. They are allowed to take up to 20% debt if I recall correctly. Each crash they should load up on debt and buy more of these long term compounders.

[alokdhir]

Maybe they dont want to risk it ...they have never used leverage since inception ...though u r right ...20% allowed as per charter

[mike2020]

Maybe they dont want to risk it ...they have never used leverage since inception ...though u r right ...20% allowed as per charter
Wouldn't that be clever, buy on the low, pay later when the warrants are back in the money. Needs three balls, one crystal, two of steel.

[bull....]

yep if nzx down another 10% by xmas and with div taken off .... $1 by xmas ?

bull's crystal ball might come true :scared: or :t_up:

[777]

bull's crystal ball might come true :scared: or :t_up:

Anything that makes you happy.

[bull....]

Anything that makes you happy.

yes you would be very happy if you get it at $1 or less with the yield ( if it remains ) i guess your a holder so yes you wont be happy about a dollar

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mark-lister-the-sharemarket-is-nothing-like-a-casino/SH2MEOVAWVHDNEEZHJO2OB4URY/

Bull shud read it carefully and try to understand most KFL investors are like told ....long punters ...not short termers

Also KFL has seen this kind of volatility many times before and have emerged out of it still breathing and kicking ....this time will also be no different I am sure

Whether it goes to $ 1 or no is immaterial to us holders as no one is looking to exit !!!

But yes golden opportunity for new investors ...but most will miss waiting for predicted bottom :cool:

[winner69]

Punters (sorry investors) piling into KFL ….at least by Jarden customers …..4th top BUY last week

And they were big buyers of MFT


Definition: For example, the first share in the BUY list is there because the BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree, last week.

[ronaldson]

Punters (sorry investors) piling into KFL ….at least by Jarden customers …..4th top BUY last week

And they were big buyers of MFT


Definition: For example, the first share in the BUY list is there because the BUY value traded in that stock exceeded the SELL value traded in that stock by the largest degree, last week.

Isn't that just for Jarden clients? Surely by definition BUY value in any stock must equal SELL value? Every trade is an equal share of both. So really what does the metric mean?

[winner69]

Isn't that just for Jarden clients? Surely by definition BUY value in any stock must equal SELL value? Every trade is an equal share of both. So really what does the metric mean?

As I said Jardens clients only and what it means is in the stated Definition

Jarden clients bought $s of KFL than what Jardens clients sold …(if Jarden clients are more astute than clients of other brokers that’s a good sign eh)

[percy]

KFL holdings.
Auckland Intl Airport 8.6%
Contact Energy 7.2%
Delegat Group 2.3%
EBOS Group 4.7%
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare 14.6%
Freightways 3.1%
Infratil 17.6%
Mainfreight 15.0%
Meridian Energy 2.0%
Port of Tauranga 2.6%
Ryman Healthcare 4.5%
Summerset 7.9%
The a2 Milk Company 3.1%
Vista Group International 3.4%
Vulcan Steel 1.1%
Equity Total 97.7%
New Zealand dollar cash 2.3%
TOTAL 100.0%
PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY
as at 30 September 2023
COMPANY NEWS..

As I follow mainly small cap companies I decided in July to buy some KFLWH to have access to the above companies.
I bought 25,000 warrants at 0.069 cents 12th July,cost $1,755.At the time KFL's nta was $1.4106.
Therefore my $1,755 gave me "control" of $1.4106 x 25,000 ie ..$35,265 of top NZ companies.
Today.My warrants are trading at .018 cents x 25,000 = $450.I have therefore lost $1,305.
KFL's NTA is now $1.2319.So I now control 25,000 x 0.018 = $30,797.50.
Now here is the interesting result.
Had I bought the group of shares KFL hold ie $35,265 in July, my investment today would be $30,797.50.A loss of $4,467.50 compared with my $1,305 loss buying the options..

[alokdhir]

Yesterday and today will add almost 5 cents to NAV ...I reckon !

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420964

Yesterday added 2 Cents when market up 0.85% and today shud add 4 Cents when market up 1.6% !!!

[mike2020]

Briefly traded above the last published valuation. Thats a change of market sentiment.

[alokdhir]

Briefly traded above the last published valuation. Thats a change of market sentiment.

Because current NAV maybe closer to 1.29 ...buyers taking that into account and lapping up blue chips at a discount !!!

[alokdhir]

I read with interest how many experienced traders eg Bull are building their income portfolio ...they are choosing to lock their funds now into depressed income stocks like KPG / Bonds / Term Deposits ...mistake which I made in 2010 ...Now imho is the time to invest in KFL type funds which have mainly bluechip growth stocks whose price appreciation will fund growing income from KFL till next rates cycle ie maybe 10-12 years

Eg buying KFL at 1.24 now can give average 11 cents tax paid dividend for next 10 years while providing some capital appreciation when its SP keeps aligning to market yield . As KFL NAV rises due to blue chips rising on p/e expansion based on rates dropping and eps growth its dividend rises thus its SP rises to align with current market yield

In last 3 days of market going up appox 3.2% ....KFL nav is up appox 7+ Cents ...as most appreciation of changing rates outlook happened in blue chip growth stocks like IFT / MFT / FPH / EBO / AIA ....main stocks of KFL

[bull....]

I read with interest how many experienced traders eg Bull are building their income portfolio ...they are choosing to lock their funds now into depressed income stocks like KPG / Bonds / Term Deposits ...mistake which I made in 2010 ...Now imho is the time to invest in KFL type funds which have mainly bluechip growth stocks whose price appreciation will fund growing income from KFL till next rates cycle ie maybe 10-12 years

Eg buying KFL at 1.24 now can give average 11 cents tax paid dividend for next 10 years while providing some capital appreciation when its SP keeps aligning to market yield . As KFL NAV rises due to blue chips rising on p/e expansion based on rates dropping and eps growth its dividend rises thus its SP rises to align with current market yield

In last 3 days of market going up appox 3.2% ....KFL nav is up appox 7+ Cents ...as most appreciation of changing rates outlook happened in blue chip growth stocks like IFT / MFT / FPH / EBO / AIA ....main stocks of KFL

buying a bond now is a bet for me on certain income + capital gain if rates fall in the time period of the bond.
kfl is a bet on direction of market + income but with added risk of losing your capital if kfl falls and you cant hang on till capital gain

[777]

buying a bond now is a bet for me on certain income + capital gain if rates fall in the time period of the bond.
kfl is a bet on direction of market + income but with added risk of losing your capital if kfl falls and you cant hang on till capital gain

If KFL fails then the NZ market has failed.

And don't you have to pay tax on the capital gain on the bonds.

[bull....]

If KFL fails then the NZ market has failed.

And don't you have to pay tax on the capital gain on the bonds.

the last 3 yrs the nz market has fallen
the last 3 yrs kfl has fallen lot more

neither has failed to exist

[alokdhir]

the last 3 yrs the nz market has fallen
the last 3 yrs kfl has fallen lot more

neither has failed to exist

Underline reason of KFL underperforming NZX50G recently is its portfolio is biased towards blue chip GROWTH stocks ...which do take bigger hit when rates rises and vice versa perform better when rates fall . U have just seen one side of the coin ie rates rising part and made your conclusion ...

Now future it will show u what happens to it when rates fall ...which u will see while invested in the safety of bonds and term deposits . Your call mate !!

[bull....]

Underline reason of KFL underperforming NZX50G recently is its portfolio is biased towards blue chip GROWTH stocks ...which do take bigger hit when rates rises and vice versa perform better when rates fall . U have just seen one side of the coin ie rates rising part and made your conclusion ...

Now future it will show u what happens to it when rates fall ...which u will see while invested in the safety of bonds and term deposits . Your call mate !!
thats my point your betting the market goes up while im betting rates go down. which one do you think has better odd's ?

[mike2020]

It seems like your both betting on the same horse.

[winner69]

It seems like your both betting on the same horse.

….and the weight of money will slow it down ….and it will end up in tears

[Toddy]

KFL is heavely weighted in Ift, Mft and Fph.

Mft is under pressure, Fph probably the same.

[mike2020]

So sell the lot and buy ift?

[Toddy]

Cherry pick the stocks that you like out of their portfolio.

[Sideshow Bob]

Not hard to replicate some/all of their portfolio, with similar weightings.

[alokdhir]

This weeks NAV will be very interesting ...again will show huge discount going on !!!

Hopefully MFT will stabilise after HY ...which is soft spot at the moment :cool:

[bull....]

It seems like your both betting on the same horse.

no as no guarantee market go up when rates fall , rates might fall cause economy bad , stock market might fall at same time cause of this

[777]

no as no guarantee market go up when rates fall , rates might fall cause economy bad , stock market might fall at same time cause of this

You forgot to mention "then the sky will fall in."

[alokdhir]

no as no guarantee market go up when rates fall , rates might fall cause economy bad , stock market might fall at same time cause of this

I have never seen assets not getting inflated when rates fall ...but u are bigger expert then me .

Hopefully u remember what happened to stocks when covid led rates fell steeply ....I am sure they were not going up as people were expecting great results from companies while epidemic going on ...they just wanted to lap up any assets as cash was becoming cheap ie rates were dropping

[alokdhir]

Someone is desperate to get out ...providing great opportunity ? !

After yesterdays almost 3 cents jump in NAV courtesy MFT and others ...its NAV shud be closer to 1.29 currently ...big seller at $ 1.21 with dividend round the corner

[alokdhir]

Will be watching tomorrows NAV very closely ...may trigger buy back discount at current SP !!!

[wkr]

Can you explain how that works? Cheers

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=wkr;1029573]Can you explain how that works? Cheers[/QUOTE

Share BuybacksThe Board of Kingfish has a buyback programme in place whereby Kingfish shares (KFL) are purchased on market by the company within certain parameters determined by the Board. The buyback period runs for 12 months from the date it is announced to the market. We currently have a share buyback policy in place.

Buybacks work well in circumstances where excessive discounts to NAV exist, as it adds value for shareholders by purchasing undervalued shares in the company. Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published net asset value, is greater than 6%.
Shares purchased under the policy are held as treasury stock and are available to be utilised under the dividend reinvestment plan, to the extent permitted by law.

[Toddy]

1.2958.....

[alokdhir]

MLN at 4% premium / BRM at par and KFL at 6% discount to NAV ...guess which one is the best value ??

[777]

Short term KFL

Long term all of them

[alokdhir]

Short term KFL

Long term all of them

I fully agree ...One can make very well diversified Global portfolio using just these 3 funds .

Also once the overhang of supply from a well stocked holder finishes ...KFL shud trade at its normal discount of 1-2% .

For LT holders or income earners its NAV which matters not spot price ...which surely is doing well and have great prospects of appreciation in coming months

[winner69]

Another dismal monthly report ...... lets blame Mainfreight time this time

Wonder what that guy Matt Peek gets paid ..... probably heaps more for what he deserves

Nice he visited some retirement villages to get a feel for how the sector is going

[777]

Another dismal monthly report ...... lets blame Mainfreight time this time

Wonder what that guy Matt Peek gets paid ..... probably heaps more for what he deserves

Nice he visited some retirement villages to get a feel for how the sector is going

Are there any stocks on the NZX that you don't complain about?

[bull....]

Another dismal monthly report ...... lets blame Mainfreight time this time

Wonder what that guy Matt Peek gets paid ..... probably heaps more for what he deserves

Nice he visited some retirement villages to get a feel for how the sector is going

your right winner .... dismal performance last 3 yrs total return to people

[Sideshow Bob]

It is a bit rearview mirror stuff in terms of performance.....

Coming out halfway through the following month is a bit late IMO - surely it can come out earlier??

NZX50 up 3.9% from the end of October, and Mainfreight currently up 12.1%.

[winner69]

Are there any stocks on the NZX that you don't complain about?

Didn’t you enjoy my rave about Skellerup the other day ……amazing company ……one of quite a few;)

[alokdhir]

Cum 2.64 C dividend ...ex 30th Nov ...payable 15th Dec !!

Shud entice bargain / dividend hunters

[Not too Flash]

NAV will be interesting tomorrow - must be just about ready for buy-back ....

[777]

NAV won't be too much different from last week.

[alokdhir]

Maybe $ 1.29 possible ....with what it seems like institutional buying in blue chips ....FPH / EBO / MFT ...all up ...IFT / AIA down ...seems interest shifting to blue chip growth from blue chip defensive plays ....

[alokdhir]

Almost similar NAV ...close to $ 1.28 ...after divvy out its $ 1.255 ....6% discount is at almost $ 1.18 ...so fund shud be buying ...but maybe they will let retail absorb the supply from Carmel Fishers account ...in long run its better as it diversifies the holdings ...it was too concentrated with her being largest investor ...around 15% at top ...now its maybe less then 4% ...I think !!

But we holders on DRP can still see the silver lining ...this time DRP strike maybe $ 1.135 :cool:

[ronaldson]

ex dividend NAV is $1.2539 at 30 November. On-market trading is $1.15 buy and $1.16 sell, which should definitely trigger the buy-back opportunity as clearly exceeds 6% discount presently, but it obviously isn't happening just now.

I wonder if a buy back cannot/should not occur during the period a DRIP price is being calculated? And that once the timeframe for computing that has passed we will see a small bounce in, or at least a stabilisation of, current pricing?

[dabsman]

ex dividend NAV is $1.2539 at 30 November. On-market trading is $1.15 buy and $1.16 sell, which should definitely trigger the buy-back opportunity as clearly exceeds 6% discount presently, but it obviously isn't happening just now.

I wonder if a buy back cannot/should not occur during the period a DRIP price is being calculated? And that once the timeframe for computing that has passed we will see a small bounce in, or at least a stabilisation of, current pricing?I

I would assume they cant buy on market in the DRP period as this would distort the DRP price. But who knows - there are some pretty strange things in this world that happen that shouldn't

[alokdhir]

Expecting NAV around $ 1.27 tomorrow ....SP at measly $ 1.15 ...widest discount in quite some time ...even wider then Covid sell off !!

Must sell is only a mortgagee sale ...Margin Call or just dont care seller ??? Very interesting time ...

Got some at $ 1.15 today ...will get some at $ 113.5 DRP also ...

[ronaldson]

My interpretation of on-market trading today is that KFL is buying at $1.16, and possibly also at $1.17. Expect a NZX notice to that effect tomorrow.

[alokdhir]

My interpretation of on-market trading today is that KFL is buying at $1.16, and possibly also at $1.17. Expect a NZX notice to that effect tomorrow.

Dont know about KFL buying but I sure did buy lots at 1.16 ...almost 10% discount on a great up trending portfolio ...too much to resist ...though my KFL position is overflowing but its a blue chip fund ...so can still be comfortable :cool:

[bull....]

hey alok how big is there buy-back $

[alokdhir]

hey alok how big is there buy-back $

Not big ...just token buy back I reckon ...but they give signals to market to get in...thus it helps when their buyback notifications start coming

10% discount is just too much ...all because of Carmel selling as she had very big holding ..which they got from years of bonuses paid as stock etc ...reason she left Directorship as she wanted to cash out otherwise too many notifications need put for her sales

PS : If she was ready for this steep discount ...it wud have better for KFL to do a deal with her off market ...why let shareholders panic or suffer ???

[bull....]

Not big ...just token buy back I reckon ...but they give signals to market to get in...thus it helps when their buyback notifications start coming

10% discount is just too much ...all because of Carmel selling as she had very big holding ..which they got from years of bonuses paid as stock etc ...reason she left Directorship as she wanted to cash out otherwise too many notifications need put for her sales

PS : If she was ready for this steep discount ...it wud have better for KFL to do a deal with her off market ...why let shareholders panic or suffer ???

thx i ask because i brought in again last div and on thinking nz50 will upswing with wall st

[alokdhir]

thx i ask because i brought in again last div and on thinking nz50 will upswing with wall st

NAV is doing better then market but not SP as She needs sell for reasons unknown ...She cud have sold when it was at premium ...but sell at 10% discount is just silly ....Though shares are with ASB Nominees ie cud be margin lending account too ...so maybe Bank selling ...who knows ...mortgagee sale is always beneficial to buyers ...I reckon

[777]

hey alok how big is there buy-back $

KFL
09/10/2023 15:57
CORPACT
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1557 HRS Kingfish Limited

CORPACT: KFL: KFL announces continuation of share buyback programme

9 October 2023

Kingfish Limited announces continuation of share buyback programme

In accordance with Listing Rule 4.14.2, Kingfish announces its intention to
continue its share buyback programme of Kingfish ordinary shares in
compliance with section 65 of the Companies Act 1993.

The buyback programme is for the twelve-month period commencing 1 November
2023 through to 31 October 2024 and allows for the purchase of up to 5% of
the ordinary shares on issue (which is equivalent to a maximum of 16,700,000
shares).

As per the current Share Buyback Policy, Kingfish will only buy back shares
if the discount to the last published net asset value is greater than 6%.

Andy Coupe
Chair
Kingfish Limited

[bull....]

KFL
09/10/2023 15:57
CORPACT
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1557 HRS Kingfish Limited

CORPACT: KFL: KFL announces continuation of share buyback programme

9 October 2023

Kingfish Limited announces continuation of share buyback programme

In accordance with Listing Rule 4.14.2, Kingfish announces its intention to
continue its share buyback programme of Kingfish ordinary shares in
compliance with section 65 of the Companies Act 1993.

The buyback programme is for the twelve-month period commencing 1 November
2023 through to 31 October 2024 and allows for the purchase of up to 5% of
the ordinary shares on issue (which is equivalent to a maximum of 16,700,000
shares).

As per the current Share Buyback Policy, Kingfish will only buy back shares
if the discount to the last published net asset value is greater than 6%.

Andy Coupe
Chair
Kingfish Limited

thx plenty available to buy

[bull....]

Expecting NAV around $ 1.27 tomorrow ....SP at measly $ 1.15 ...widest discount in quite some time ...even wider then Covid sell off !!

Must sell is only a mortgagee sale ...Margin Call or just dont care seller ??? Very interesting time ...

Got some at $ 1.15 today ...will get some at $ 113.5 DRP also ...

you pretty good with your nav calc 1.28 approx so buyback can happen now

[alokdhir]

you pretty good with your nav calc 1.28 approx so buyback can happen now

Yes surely can commence ...maybe they already doing as mentioned by Ronny before ...it shud move closer to nav in due course ...normal is 2-4 cents discount

PS : I believe management reads our Forum notes about KFL ...I just want to highlight that they cud have handled with drawdown of big portfolio better ...letting SP reach 10% discount levels is not very good management

[bull....]

Yes surely can commence ...maybe they already doing as mentioned by Ronny before ...it shud move closer to nav in due course ...normal is 2-4 cents discount

PS : I believe management reads our Forum notes about KFL ...I just want to highlight that they cud have handled with drawdown of big portfolio better ...letting SP reach 10% discount levels is not very good management

yep better they use buyback window now and do off-market to clean out seller

[alokdhir]

yep better they use buyback window now and do off-market to clean out seller

Normally it becomes better by the time Divvy about to hit bank...so another week maybe ...some DRP shares also come into market for cashing out ...this time DRP allotment will be around $ 1.135 only ...so they still in the money to sell

[SPC]

I think you'll find rules against off market buyback of own shares. Transactions must be on market for transparency. Imagine for example if the board were to approve the purchase of a holding from a former director ABOVE market pricing. Now that would raise eyebrows. As well as disadvantaging others in the market. So there's your answer.
Just a footnote, if it were the mighty C selling down then at these prices her believers and other investors are buying them at fantastic prices. A real Xmas bargain. Merry Xmas folks, a gift to the faithful past and present. Thanks ma'am, I've loaded up.

[alokdhir]

Who is talking of above market prices mate ? We are talking of buying her off at 10% discount to the NTA ...thats what she is doing selling on market ...but I agree then we folks wud not have got chance but NAV of our holdings wud have gone up ...which is still gains for us without this mayhem

Whats going on at present maybe scaring many new prospective investors who might think something wrong or cooking here ...as not easy for people to comprehend why shud someone be selling at 10% discount now when market is about to turnaround . Even me had some negative thoughts of some trouble in the company till 777 helped with explanation of her selling her large portfolio ...still it beats me the logic of the hurry and the timing . Had she been doing this to limit the premium during boom was easier to understand ...supply stock to control over excitement ...but keep increasing discount to panic levels is another beast . Management shud have found a more organised way around it thats my simple ask

Yes we all have loaded up ...KFL shud have done that then all wud have been equally rewarded now its only few ...

[Toddy]

If I had any cash left I would be a buyer. And would also double up on BRM warrants.

Both represent good value at today's market prices.

Im guessing that the annual bonuses don't factor in the on market share price into the equation.