KFL - discount to diluted NAV

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423146

DRP at $1.1308

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423146

DRP at $1.1308

huge discount to NAV , what are these muppets doing they should close the gap instead of giving away free money

[ronaldson]

I have posted previously about selling sufficient shares each quarter once they go ex dividend to yield a sum equivalent to the cash dividend, whilst still participating in the DRIP programme and receiving shares at the discount rate.

I completed this exercise with two holdings managed by me in relation to the current dividend by selling sufficient on market after the ex date at $1.17 (allowing also for the Jarden trade fee of $29.90 incurred ) to yield cash equal to the dividend, and now that the DRIP price is ascertained it is evident one account is 51 shares better off (once allotted on 15 December) and the other 112 shares better off. In both cases with a T + 2 settlement the cash is received days before the actual dividend payment date.

May be only a minimalist gain but it is available four times a year. You need quite a number of shares as a holder for this to be reasonably practicable - say 100k or so - but it doesn't take much effort and is relatively low risk given the 3% discount rate.

[alokdhir]

DRP $ 1.1304 is even better then my rough calculations ...seems ma'am helped here too with her relentless selling ...hopefully she has enough cash now to celebrate her Xmas ...lol :p

[alokdhir]

Today is NAV day ...expecting $ 1.28+ ...which will still show more then 6% discount ...got no buyback yet from KFL ...shud start after divvy / DRP shares allotments done ...near term if market is supported which it seems it will ( Expecting a hugely positive Friday on index rebalancing day ) then SP shud move to 1.22 + to get below 6% discount to NAV ...if any can foresee ahead then I think they will agree that by next year this time we will have a much rosier NAV / SP

[bull....]

so no buyback purchases from them ever ?

[alokdhir]

No need buyback from KFL ...market will close the gap pretty soon ...today all KFL growth stocks big up ...I reckon NAV up 2-3 cents today itself

NZ 10 Y down to almost 4.5% ...US 10Y below 4 % ...this theme of rates coming down fast will get entrenched and markets will ZOOM ...KFL will outperform with its blue chip growth portfolio ....:t_up:

[777]

By my calculation 36.95% of shares took part in the DRP.

[alokdhir]

By my calculation 36.95% of shares took part in the DRP.

U r spot on as usual ...DRP works very well for me ...got at $ 1.1304 ...cant complain !!!

[winner69]

NZX50 flat today …..but NZX10 down 1%

Suppose that means a bad day for KFL value

The paper says the blue chips suffered from profit taking lol

[777]

Todays movement in Kingfish companies.
Looks better than what you are thinking.

AIA.NZ

$8.42
-0.02 / -0.24%

6,564,795
8.40 - 8.60

ATM.NZ

$4.37
+0.02 / +0.46%

1,105,875
4.31 - 4.39

CEN.NZ
$7.82
+0.01 / +0.13%

1,177,983
7.78 - 7.91

DGL.NZ
$6.43
-0.05 / -0.77%

25,117
6.43 - 6.46

EBO.NZ
$34.82
-1.18 / -3.28%

353,669
34.70 - 36.00

FPH.NZ
$23.99
-0.76 / -3.07%

1,210,293
23.96 - 24.75

FRW.NZ
$8.30
+0.28 / +3.49%

171,727
8.02 - 8.30
IFT.NZ

$10.00
-0.05 / -0.50%

823,364
9.91 - 10.075

MEL.NZ

$5.41
+0.1 / +1.88%

3,592,156
5.20 - 5.41

MFT.NZ
$67.11
-1.11 / -1.63%

128,687
67.00 - 68.82

POT.NZ
$5.42
+0.12 / +2.26%

369,824
5.29 - 5.42

RYM.NZ
$5.35
+0.04 / +0.75%

822,470
5.28 - 5.37

SUM.NZ
$10.10
+0.42 / +4.34%

302,998
9.68 - 10.10

VGL.NZ
$1.45
+0.05 / +3.57%

97,156
1.38 - 1.45

VSL.NZ
$8.20
+0.19 / +2.37%

32,718
8.01 - 8.20

[alokdhir]

NZX50 flat today …..but NZX10 down 1%

Suppose that means a bad day for KFL value

The paper says the blue chips suffered from profit taking lol

Agree with. your assessment ...it seems Index rebalancing punished ie SP got hit for stocks which have done well recently ie FPH / MFT etc while laggards got bought like SUM etc ...out of the blue chips .

It will normalise soon after ...NZX is lagging behind world markets ...2024 will do catch up as rates outlook become clearer . KFL shud do well ...growth blue chips will rise and discount shud narrow ...no wonder Bull is back in it ...super trading mind he got :t_up:

[alokdhir]

On other channel W69 is very bullish about Fisher funds' close ended listed funds ...he even thinks they can trade at a premium some time in future particularly he talked about BRM with NAV appreciating more then 20% in one year ...amazing !!

I am more bullish on KFL vs BRM ...though both are great buys currently as both have very deep discounts to NAV and in markets which need catch up with world markets ...they will surely when it catches the eyes of big boys ...they at present busy with bigger markets

Need do Poll of closing SP for this year and next ...my estimates are 2023 $ 1.25 and 2024 $ 1.40 !!

[mike2020]

$1.21 and $1.50. Watch the narrative change by the next ORC meeting.

[Sideshow Bob]

Long way to go, but warrants still out of the money.

[alokdhir]

Today KFL's NAV went up 1 Cent as per my spreadsheet while SP dropped 3 cents ...widening the discount back to 10 % ...I think KFL management have already gone on Xmas holidays ...lol

[bull....]

Today KFL's NAV went up 1 Cent as per my spreadsheet while SP dropped 3 cents ...widening the discount back to 10 % ...I think KFL management have already gone on Xmas holidays ...lol

is the buyback fake news ? i cant find 1 instance of any share buy back

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=bull....;1034664]is the buyback fake news ? i cant find 1 instance of any share buy back[/QUOTE

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/340010

Many many instances ...but like I told u that they not very aggressive with it ever

PS : This time maybe special as they know who is selling and maybe they dont want to help her out or they want stock to be more widely owned by letting her spread to mum and dad investors at a super attractive discount ...no need worry if u have more then a year's time frame in mind ...in next 2-3 years it may even reach par + ...so one gets extra 10% at today's SP to cover next 10 years of Fund charges ....all know KFL portfolio is super blue chips so all win who buys at current levels

[Toddy]

Maybe management are just waiting until it's closer to warrant exercise date. Then go hard ensuring that the money comes in.

[alokdhir]

Maybe management are just waiting until it's closer to warrant exercise date. Then go hard ensuring that the money comes in.

If thats the plan then it's sure to be profitable to go in now too ...will get at least 10% gains on funds used now ...lol

[alokdhir]

On other Channel Mr B has called BRM his trifecta find after HLG / TRA ...now BRM ...Mine is KFL but both have similar traits and fund mangers etc ...so even 50/50 will do for me ...

[bull....]

big seller back

[alokdhir]

big seller back

Why dont u counter her by being BIG buyer ...be bullish mate ...Put an order for one million ...scare her :eek2:

[777]

This shows the problem of the small market we have in NZ. If you build up too big a holding in almost any stock then disposing of a large quantity is difficult. You end up controlling the price.

[alokdhir]

This shows the problem of the small market we have in NZ. If you build up too big a holding in almost any stock then disposing of a large quantity is difficult. You end up controlling the price.

She had no choice but to keep getting stock as Bonuses ...so it got built up ...also being part of management she cud not sell otherwise SSH wud have scared the market like TRA ...so after leaving board she started cashing ...but wrong timing ...when it was at 20 cents premium then was the time ...vols were good and it wud have actually helped control unwarranted premium . Saw that companies register again ...it got updated yesterday but still has pretty old data ...as mine is still 2 months or more old .

[777]

I was speaking generally alok, not her specifically, nor KFL particularly.

[alokdhir]

I was speaking generally alok, not her specifically, nor KFL particularly.

I do appreciate that general problem thats why I hesitate to invest in any small cap or low liquidity stock ...its almost impossible to cash out when u actually want to ...but large caps have enough liquidity always especially during index rebalancing days so u get chance once 3 months at least

[alokdhir]

Todays NAV as per my spreadsheet went up another cent ...its roughly $ 1.3015 ...above 10% discount now !!

My spread sheet is based on 30th Sept portfolio ...so can have some tracking error ...will realign when Dec portfolio is revealed .


PS : As per Sept newsletter ...NAV was $ 1.30 and then SP was $ 1.26 as on 30th Sept 2023 !!!

[bull....]

Todays NAV as per my spreadsheet went up another cent ...its roughly $ 1.3015 ...above 10% discount now !!

My spread sheet is based on 30th Sept portfolio ...so can have some tracking error ...will realign when Dec portfolio is revealed .


PS : As per Sept newsletter ...NAV was $ 1.30 and then SP was $ 1.26 as on 30th Sept 2023 !!!

if you are correct about nav and they are not doing buyback then something smells

[alokdhir]

if you are correct about nav and they are not doing buyback then something smells

U will find the NAV tmrw mate ...today's closing prices ...will update my estimate of NAV after market close . Smells part I dont know ...what can smell ...intentions or fraud or inefficiency ...Its a $ 400 Mil fund independently audited and independent custody of portfolio ...what makes u think something smells mate ??

[mike2020]

if you are correct about nav and they are not doing buyback then something smells

How can it smell if it is backed by the shares they hold which are worth 10% more? Genuine question. I might go back and read the last report but as I recall they were holding no shares as stock but what was the cash position? Surely a buyback involves some cash? I had like Alok assumed it was who was selling and how it might be viewed.

[alokdhir]

How can it smell if it is backed by the shares they hold which are worth 10% more? Genuine question. I might go back and read the last report but as I recall they were holding no shares as stock but what was the cash position? Surely a buyback involves some cash? I had like Alok assumed it was who was selling and how it might be viewed.

Kind of agree with your thoughts ...But like I opined sometime back ...KFL management shud do something about it otherwise it makes us investors sleepless when someone says it smells ...though Bull has his reasons for saying so but it can cause stress to long term holders ...KFL management need clarify to make us more comfortable if nothing else

PS : During Covid fall they started issuing NAV twice a week ...that was nice action ...now also need confidence restoring action ...imho

[mike2020]

I wonder how they would word that? Do you have any idea how much she must have left to sell?

[alokdhir]

I wonder how they would word that? Do you have any idea how much she must have left to sell?

777 sent me companies register link ...it got updated yesterday but I think that data is still pretty old ...maybe 2-3 months old ...At peak she had almost 15% ...now its still showing 5.72 ...everyday almost she is selling 250K stock since sooo long ...maybe she will finish all in 2023 ...fingers crossed ...though long term its good for us that register is more widespread

[mike2020]

I could not find the cash position in the last report. Don't they usually have some on hand for buybacks?

Appreciate your answers, I have held KFL for a long time but I have always looked at it like I would a TD.

[bull....]

How can it smell if it is backed by the shares they hold which are worth 10% more? Genuine question. I might go back and read the last report but as I recall they were holding no shares as stock but what was the cash position? Surely a buyback involves some cash? I had like Alok assumed it was who was selling and how it might be viewed.

they have 6 mil cash on hand last report

Share BuybacksThe Board of Kingfish has a buyback programme in place whereby Kingfish shares (KFL) are purchased on market by the company within certain parameters determined by the Board. The buyback period runs for 12 months from the date it is announced to the market. We currently have a share buyback policy in place.

Buybacks work well in circumstances where excessive discounts to NAV exist, as it adds value for shareholders by purchasing undervalued shares in the company. Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published net asset value, is greater than 6%.
Shares purchased under the policy are held as treasury stock and are available to be utilised under the dividend reinvestment plan, to the extent permitted by law.

why they not doing buyback when this is the reason it was implemented and they state on there site buyback will be done to protect investors returns and enhance value. does not install confidence to me when they dont do as they say

[mike2020]

It does say 3% cash 30/11 which at MC 396ml makes 11.88ml. At a guess they have used a fair bit of that for the last div?

What would be worst case scenario? They delist and sell today at $1.30?

[alokdhir]

It does say 3% cash 30/11 which at MC 396ml makes 11.88ml. At a guess they have used a fair bit of that for the last div?

What would be worst case scenario? They delist and sell today at $1.30?

Nothing that alarming will happen ...we had 22 cents premium ...nothing happened ...now we have 13 cents discount....slowly it will get bridged ...give it another 6 months ...normal is what was on 30th Sept when NAV was $ 1.30 ...SP was $ 1.26 ...

PS : They get cash dividends also ...FPH / MFT / IFT recently paid divvies

Also they have around 40% people on DRP so cash outflow is not what u thinking ...overall they pay 8% cash to 60% of holders and they get almost 3.5% cash divvy on full portfolio ...just back of the envelope calculations ...so their yearly cash shortfall is just 1-1.5% only ...for which they do portfolio churning ...easy to manage

[mike2020]

No not alarmed at all. I just wanted a better understanding of something I have taken for granted. When it was at a serious premium over $2 I was more concerned for anyone buying. Rates lower for longer they said, prep for neg rates they told the banks...

Looking back to Dec 21 it looks like around a 30c premium.

[alokdhir]

The only REASON I can think of why KFL management is always reluctant to on market BUYBACK is that it leads to reduction of corpus ie opposite of successful warrant issue ...so they being pretty mean in trying to save few millions of AUM thus fund charges and let the discount keep widening over their own announced threshold of 6% ...at least they shud stop it at 6% with all their might ...NZX50 goes up and KFL SP goes down for so long ...its not just few days ...ACTION is surely warranted ASAP

[mike2020]

I think action can wait till after NYs

[Grimy]

I think action can wait till after NYs

Especially while I'm topping up!

[alokdhir]

Rough estimates of tmrw NAV $ 1.2985 .....

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423956

estimate was little off the mark still we have 9% discount going on a great growth blue chips portfolio ...


PS : 4% / 7% / 9% ...discounts for MLN / BRM / KFL

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423956

estimate was little off the mark still we have 9% discount going on a great growth blue chips portfolio ...


PS : 4% / 7% / 9% ...discounts for MLN / BRM / KFL

1.30 + nav next week my pick

[alokdhir]

1.30 + nav next week my pick

Thats not big prediction as yesterday itself it reached close to 1.2970 ...usual window dressing in top stocks will help KFL reach 1.33 maybe ...lol ...nav we talking here

[alokdhir]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=14899&d=1703190178

Shud help KFL do well in 2024 ....courtesy our mate W69

[Perky]

Love it thanks…gotta laugh at Harbour picks….could only find 3 measly companies to recommend
They might have to let some of their staff go lol
Ive certainly been reducing nzx exposure and increasing Aus and international lately.

Thanks to all the regular posters for keeping us minions informed with your thought provoking posts

Have a nice Xmas

[winner69]

Love it thanks…gotta laugh at Harbour picks….could only find 3 measly companies to recommend
They might have to let some of their staff go lol
Ive certainly been reducing nzx exposure and increasing Aus and international lately.

Thanks to all the regular posters for keeping us minions informed with your thought provoking posts

Have a nice Xmas

Harbour like you …other stocks they keen on not on NZX hence only 3 listed

And all the best to you perky

[winner69]

Bored yesterday so pulled out the numbers on KFL and did the old Z-score analysis ......a measure of whether an investment trust is a buy or sell

KFL is still a definitely a BUY

[alokdhir]

Bored yesterday so pulled out the numbers on KFL and did the old Z-score analysis ......a measure of whether an investment trust is a buy or sell

KFL is still a definitely a BUY

Bull did that before he got in again ...now for how long is anyone's guess ...maybe this time he will stay longer as he finally understands its dividend policy ...hopefully he is on DRP if he doesn't like dividends to include some capital gains too . Actually being on DRP is win win for both ....cash dividend getters pay for something extra DRP ones get ...ie cash dividend getter subsidise extra growth of DRP subscribers

its main stocks MFT / IFT / SUM / FPH / RYM / ATM .... are going to be stocks to watch in 2024 ...fingers crossed

Mike's 2024 closing SP estimate is $ 1.50 ...me is more conservative at $ 1.40+ How about yours mate ?


PS : For me DARK HORSE is KFLWH ....it's a great punt at these levels ....DYOR pls ...its a punt which can go very well or 0

[mike2020]

NTA a year ago was $1.40 av in December 2022, a couple of OCR cuts and I can't see why parity or a premium won't be achieved 2024. I base this on past behavior, it wasn't a random guess. I said $1.50+ :)

I do appreciate your enthusiasm for what seems on the face of it to be a set and forget stock but it has needed some thinking about over the last couple of years.

[alokdhir]

NTA a year ago was $1.40 av in December 2022, a couple of OCR cuts and I can't see why parity or a premium won't be achieved 2024. I base this on past behavior, it wasn't a random guess. I said $1.50+ :)

I do appreciate your enthusiasm for what seems on the face of it to be a set and forget stock but it has needed some thinking about over the last couple of years.

Me is with you mate ...I am trying to be conservative for a change ...had been over optimistic little earlier then required before but now things are moving in the direction which I thought about before ie the rates will eventually relent and growth blue chips will return to favour ...

KFL is a buy and forget stock at current or below NAV levels always ...I am enthusiastic as I want more and more people to understand its worth ...See on other channel what Mr B / W69 's enthusiasm did to BRM ...lol

But to be fair I was vociferous about my opposition to investing in KFL at a premium when it was 20 cents over NAV ...that was a big NO NO for me

Also I dont think we will get premiums anytime soon ...surely not in 2024 ...may need another overly negative rates outlook to get premiums again ...TBF ...not expecting them at all ...2-3 cents discount is normal ...imho

[alokdhir]

"Perhaps the most pertinent piece of advice in the current market is not to allow a bear market to frighten you into taking patient money out of good long-term growth shares.
Despite traversing the 1929 crash, depression, an oil crisis and a world war, Mr Slater notes the rise in stock price of Coca Cola from $40 (£31.90) at its 1919 IPO to the equivalent of $1.8m at the time of publishing the book."

Zulu principal works well ...so does KFL portfolio ...though many made fun of its buy and hold good growth stocks policy but its good investing technique

[alokdhir]

Bull mate ...today your dream can come true ...KFL NAV $ 1.30+ very possible :t_up:

[Grimy]

Bull mate ...today your dream can come true ...KFL NAV $ 1.30+ very possible :t_up:

Close......$1.299

[ronaldson]

And still no indication a share buyback is in progress?

[bull....]

Bull mate ...today your dream can come true ...KFL NAV $ 1.30+ very possible :t_up:

yep next week for sure i reckon. some of there stocks have bullish momentum

[alokdhir]

yep next week for sure i reckon. some of there stocks have bullish momentum

On 30th Sept NAV was exactly $ 1.30 ...SP was $ 1.26 so some gap left to close out ...U can help close it ...lol

[bull....]

On 30th Sept NAV was exactly $ 1.30 ...SP was $ 1.26 so some gap left to close out ...U can help close it ...lol

the powers to be can get there a.rse off the counch and do buy back

[ronaldson]

Yes, NAV now $1.3082 as at market close at calendar 2023 year end.

KFL trading at $1.22 looks good buying to me and still no indication any share buyback is in progress despite the discount exceeding 6%.

[bull....]

Yes, NAV now $1.3082 as at market close at calendar 2023 year end.

KFL trading at $1.22 looks good buying to me and still no indication any share buyback is in progress despite the discount exceeding 6%.

i think they have no money to do buy back. thats why they never do one. would need to sell more stock to do it on top of the stock they already sell to pay dividends

[Sideshow Bob]

i think they have no money to do buy back. thats why they never do one. would need to sell more stock to do it on top of the stock they already sell to pay dividends

At the end of the last FY (31/3/23) they only had $6.4m cash and the year prior about $8m. So somewhere between 1-2% of total value. So not a huge amount of latitude for buybacks.

[bull....]

At the end of the last FY (31/3/23) they only had $6.4m cash and the year prior about $8m. So somewhere between 1-2% of total value. So not a huge amount of latitude for buybacks.

buyback fake news. i sold out again no confidence in this co after they dont do buy back

[dabsman]

I really dont care. Dividend is calculated on NTA and DRP allocated on average share price less 3% so win win for me. The fact that it is CURRENTLY trading below NTA is only a good thing to me

[777]

buyback fake news. i sold out again no confidence in this co after they dont do buy back

I don't think you have ever had any confidence in KFL.

Was that 252 shares trade at 1.22 yours?

[bull....]

I don't think you have ever had any confidence in KFL.

Was that 252 shares trade at 1.22 yours?

lol i sold out before today. as ive said on this thread i trade kfl based on nz50 trend.
kfl gone up cause nz50 gone up.
doesnt hide the fact though for you long termers that this co management and directors is poor in my opinion. nav keep going down and div's by them having to keep selling stock. they only be saved by nz50 going up.

so place your bet for 24 will nz50 go up or down based on wall st having such a big yr lastyr. ( nz50 just follows wall st )

[alokdhir]

Bull is not an investor but a trader by profession ....his attention span is about 7 days ...he calls a fund follower of NZX50 trend ...of course it will follow ...long term it's marginally outperformed NZX50G ...as its a fund of NZX listed long term growth oriented blue chips ...it tends to do well when rates are down and growth is good

If one thinks future will have those conditions then holding on to your KFL is the wisest move otherwise one can always trade PEB etc ...

Had tried to explain to him how KFL dividends work and how much shortfall they have towards dividend payments per YEAR ...just 1.2% ...selling 1.2% stock in a year does not deplete NAV which had given 7-10% growth YOY including bad years ...but he does not want to understand or read other's posts ...thus he sticks with his half baked beliefs ...good on him :cool:

[daveypnz]

lol i sold out before today. as ive said on this thread i trade kfl based on nz50 trend.
kfl gone up cause nz50 gone up.
doesnt hide the fact though for you long termers that this co management and directors is poor in my opinion. nav keep going down and div's by them having to keep selling stock. they only be saved by nz50 going up.

so place your bet for 24 will nz50 go up or down based on wall st having such a big yr lastyr. ( nz50 just follows wall st )

Just curious as to why you trade KFL based on NZX50 trend instead of trading NZX50 itself? Mind explaining your strategy again?

Cheers

[alokdhir]

He was trying to get help from Buyback of KFL due to huge discount to NAV ...thus it was more favourable to trade KFL then real time index

[alokdhir]

Today's NAV should make it very clear the underline trend . It should show marginal increase in spite of market going no where in the last week

Like Bull pointed many stocks of KFL like MFT / IFT / SUM etc are in uptrend which bodes well for future NAV growth

Feeling very positive about it for 2024 ...Mike's estimated $ 1.50 for yearly close very probable imho

[mike2020]

I said at least $1.50. 😀

[bull....]

i said $1 to come. 24?

[mike2020]

Its a dollar twenty four now bull. Get some sleep.

[mike2020]

Today's NAV should make it very clear the underline trend . It should show marginal increase in spite of market going no where in the last week

Like Bull pointed many stocks of KFL like MFT / IFT / SUM etc are in uptrend which bodes well for future NAV growth

Feeling very positive about it for 2024 ...Mike's estimated $ 1.50 for yearly close very probable imho

Where are we at after today? Quite a lot happening in the KFL holdings.

[alokdhir]

Where are we at after today? Quite a lot happening in the KFL holdings.

Its still around $ 1.32 ...but trend is up ...depends on tmrw ...will update after tmrw's closing

[alokdhir]

Tmrw NAV can print close to $ 1.327 :cool:

[Toddy]

Tmrw NAV can print close to $ 1.327 :cool:
Have you got a number for BRM?

[alokdhir]

Have you got a number for BRM?

Dont follow BRM ...sorry !!

[Ricky-bobby]

Nice! Hope it helps the warrant price! Basil on the other channel usually has a brm number. See he has posted 76 cents

[777]

Tmrw NAV can print close to $ 1.327 :cool:

Very close.
$1.3245 actual

[alokdhir]

Very close.
$1.3245 actual

Good part is last 4 weeks are all positive additions to NAV unlike BRM ... Will need to reset NAV model after Dec quarter portfolio reveal ....soon

[Sideshow Bob]

Warrants up 20% today but still only $0.03

[alokdhir]

Warrants up 20% today but still only $0.03

As they just about in the money ....if consider from NAV like Mr B compared BRM warrants then they should be 1.325 -1.26 = 6.5 cents with 6 months of positive growth ahead ....BRM he calculated as 76-63 = 13 Cents ...that led to 8 cents attack today ...lol

[Mrbuyit]

Picked up some warrants yesterday, just a small parcel as a bit of fun to add to my shareholder allotment, as it looks like the buy side volume was starting to swell. I thought there is a decent chance of some upside at that sort of price although wasn't quite expecting 20% jump so soon..

[Sideshow Bob]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/425318/411583.pdf

December Newsletter

[winner69]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/425318/411583.pdf

December Newsletter

These newsletters always seem so depressing ..at least Matt is ‘optimistic for a prosperous 2024’ ……that’s a good sign at least

[alokdhir]

For TA lovers ...KFL is now surely positive with 30DMA over 60DMA and SP over 30DMA ...FWIW ...it seems worst is over for this stock ...onwards and upwards :p

[alokdhir]

Roughly KFL and BRM tracking similarly in closing the discount to NAV ....KFL has more concentrated portfolio of IFT / MFT/ FPH / AIA / SUM / EBO / CEN is almost 77% of it while BRM has more stocks ...but BRM has an added risk/ cost of 70% currency hedging ...AUD vs NZD .

ASX200 vs NZX50G which are bench marks for both funds ...YTD performances are minus 0.36% for ASX and plus 1.57% for NZX

I personally like KFL portfolio more and think most of its stocks are not just NZ economy oriented eg FPH /MFT / IFT etc and are better bluechips thus offering more stability ...so not very convinced with argument that NZ economy will underperform OZ economy thus KFL will underperform BRM !!

[Rawz]

The warrants are so cheap right now

Exercise price is $1.26?
Warrant price is $0.028
Cost right now $1.26+$0.028= $1.288

Head shares are $1.28 and NAV is $1.32

Say a small 5% appreciation.. SP goes to $1.34

Means warrants can be $1.34-$1.26= $0.08

[Mrbuyit]

I guess you need to factor in 2 dividends of ~2.5c each between now and end of July, so it's going to be somewhat dependant on how the sp recovers from the dividend payments.
I picked up some warrants last week at .025 as I also think there could a little upside from here.. maybe not 8c but possibly 4 or 5, wouldn't be an outrageous prediction? Or.. get it wrong and they could go close to zero!

[Rawz]

I guess you need to factor in 2 dividends of ~2.5c each between now and end of July, so it's going to be somewhat dependant on how the sp recovers from the dividend payments.
I picked up some warrants last week at .025 as I also think there could a little upside from here.. maybe not 8c but possibly 4 or 5, wouldn't be an outrageous prediction? Or.. get it wrong and they could go close to zero!

I think you will do very well and double your money

[alokdhir]

Close to $ 1.33 tmrw's NAV ...that should be good 2 cents up for the month ...small outperformance on NZX50G 1.21% for the month

If this trend continues for next 6 months to warrants exercise date ...it shud add another 12 cents minus 5.5 cents back as divvies to give July NAV of $ 1.395

Its too simplistic and linear to actually happen like that ...but hopefully we still end up around 1.39 in July as nav :D

[alokdhir]

In debate KFL vs BRM for current buying ....One further argument in favour of KFL ...future dilution impact of warrant execution will be much lesser for KFL then BRM

BRM expected dilution is appox 5 cents to NAV ...based on estimated 83 Cents NAV at exercise time vs 63 Cents exercise price ie appox 6%

KFL expected dilution is appox 3 cents to NAV ....based on estimated 138 Cents NAV at exercise time vs 126 Cents exercise price ie appox 2% only


So currently BRM should not trade above 4-6%. discount to NAV if one is mindful about impending future dilution ...as part of current NAV will finance discounted warrants conversion .

While buying KFL currently one has lesser fears of such dilution as its exercise price is not that DEEPLY discounted as. BRM


PS : Based on above argument current fair price for BRM should be 77 -5 = 72 Cents while for KFL 133-3 = 130 cents ...while assuming rest being equal ...market risk / fund charges etc

[mike2020]

It was getting there but there has been a decent sized sell this week.

[Toddy]

In debate KFL vs BRM for current buying ....One further argument in favour of KFL ...future dilution impact of warrant execution will be much lesser for KFL then BRM

BRM expected dilution is appox 5 cents to NAV ...based on estimated 83 Cents NAV at exercise time vs 63 Cents exercise price ie appox 6%

KFL expected dilution is appox 3 cents to NAV ....based on estimated 138 Cents NAV at exercise time vs 126 Cents exercise price ie appox 2% only


So currently BRM should not trade above 4-6%. discount to NAV if one is mindful about impending future dilution ...as part of current NAV will finance discounted warrants conversion .

While buying KFL currently one has lesser fears of such dilution as its exercise price is not that DEEPLY discounted as. BRM


PS : Based on above argument current fair price for BRM should be 77 -5 = 72 Cents while for KFL 133-3 = 130 cents ...while assuming rest being equal ...market risk / fund charges etc

Why compare?

Isn't the question 'if I was investing a dollar in the NZX today are KFL warrants a good investment'.

[alokdhir]

Why compare?

Isn't the question 'if I was investing a dollar in the NZX today are KFL warrants a good investment'.

The debate I am referring to is " Is buying KFL now better value or BRM now " ...not warrants ...we are talking about new investments in either KFL or BRM or both and merits of both ....warrants pending exercise can be burden on NAV ....bigger the discounted offer bigger the cut will come to NAV ...so now BRM looks good when NAV is 77 cents but it wont when 5 Cents will get shaved off in one day independent of market action !!

[Toddy]

Because the BRM portfolio has out performed KFL based on the share spot price on issue date then yes, for new investors what you are saying is true.

BRM warants were issue at the bottom of market cycle last year. Perfect timing. So those who bought in November last year got a bargain.
Of course it did mean that the previous years warrants were out of the money and didn't get exercised.

[alokdhir]

Tmrw KFL nav can print close to $ 1.34 ...can show trading again at 6% discount !!!

[alokdhir]

Ytd nzx50g = + 1.89% ...kfl ytd nav = + 2.44%

ytd asx200 = -0.16% ...brm ytd nav = + 1.02%

[alokdhir]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522766/my-fiduciary-is-moving-to-pie-only-portfolio-recommendations.html

This should add tailwind to KFL SP ahead ...time is fast running out for trusts to switch individual stocks to PIE or listed PIE investments

Difference is massive 28 vs 39% tax rate ...almost all will need change ...doesnt make sense to hold individual stocks anymore

Advantage on tax rate more then covers fund charges issues

[moose]

The tax treatment of these is interesting and not as simple as it looks at first. Yes as a PIE you only pay tax at 28% not 39% (for high income earners and, from April, trusts) but because of the lack of capital gains in NZ this difference is diluted because some of the dividend comes from capital gains - e.g. for KFL only around 30-40% of the dividend is taxable (i.e. is funded from dividends received from the underlying portfolio investments) the rest comes from capital gains (in an ideal world, depending on the performance in any given year this may come from disposing of assets held by the fund - which are also not taxable in NZ). For the other two similar funds things are a bit different - BRM holds Australian shares and most of these are subject to the same rules (but note any investment in smaller companies may not be). For MLN the FIF rules would apply, so 5% of the portfolio treated as the return each year and subject to NZ tax rules. On this basis the biggest tax gain comes with the MLN fund (5% taxed at 28% rather than 39% so overall 1.4 % paid in tax rather than 1.95%) - so perhaps a saving of 0.55% of fund value which wont cover the fund charges (but probably not far off if you compared with the transaction fees involved in holding the same portfolio yourself). For BRM and KFL the saving is likely less.
Ive been meaning to try and work out this properly for a while, but havent got round to it yet. Even though the tax savings dont cover the fund fees the costs of DIYing the same portfolio (including transaction costs and time) would likely close the gap significantly. To do an accurate comparison you would also have to factor in the DRP and Warrants.......I suspect this is why no-one i'm aware of has done a side-by-side comparison - I throw the challenge out there for anyone with the necessary spreadsheet skills and time!
There are also the not insignificant benefits of not having to DIYR or having to sell lots of small bundles of shares to provide an income stream.
In my mind these 3 funds are a unique way for NZ tax resident investors to get a predictable income from a diversified investment with minimal hassle at an acceptable management fee.

[SPC]

No point doing a side by side comparison as you already have the answer in the last paragraph. You can't hold these investments in a pie structure as an individual.

[dabsman]

$1.3389 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425895) NAV so moving up nicely

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1039843]Tmrw KFL nav can print close to $ 1.34 ...can show trading again at 6% discount !!![/QUOTE

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425895

Worked alright !!

[winner69]

Time for Kingfish to get interested in a fletchers methinks …….Fletchers and Vulcan a good industry pair

[alokdhir]

Time for Kingfish to get interested in a fletchers methinks …….Fletchers and Vulcan a good industry pair

They tried before but had. the wisdom to get out soon ...1% in Vulcan doesn't count as investment

TRA maybe better if they also think like U and Mr B that it has a long runway of growth ??

[mike2020]

So how much are we down tomorrow? Back to $1.31?

[alokdhir]

So how much are we down tomorrow? Back to $1.31?

Yes close to that ...YTD index is down 0.59% but NAV will be close to same as at start of year ie outperformance of appox 0.59%

[winner69]

NAV 1.3130 …loWe’re then 10/1

Easy come easy go they say

Discount now 4% v 7% back then so we’re a bit up on share price

[alokdhir]

NAV 1.3130 …loWe’re then 10/1

Easy come easy go they say

Discount now 4% v 7% back then so we’re a bit up on share price

Main point mate ...it has outperformed index by appox 0.75% YTD

[winner69]

Main point mate ...it has outperformed index by appox 0.75% YTD

Are you allowed to annualised that and say an approc 6.5% out performance ….% points that is eh

[alokdhir]

Are you allowed to annualised that and say an approc 6.5% out performance ….% points that is eh

I was thinking of that but then I thought let u say it ...that will make u happy ...and u did ...American way of everything annualised :D

[winner69]

I was thinking of that but then I thought let u say it ...that will make u happy ...and u did ...American way of everything annualised :D

Don’t think one is allowed to do that

Means to do 6.5% for year they need to do heaps more than that over the next 48 weeks seeing they less than 1% after 6 weeks

[alokdhir]

Don’t think one is allowed to do that

Means to do 6.5% for year they need to do heaps more than that over the next 48 weeks seeing they less than 1% after 6 weeks

No one is allowed to do that. but still Americans do it...looks big and impressive if annualised like quarterly GDP etc

[winner69]

A2 up 16% today

Pity KFL don’t seem to have as many as they once had

Did they lose te faith or something

[mike2020]

A2 up 16% today

Pity KFL don’t seem to have as many as they once had

Did they lose te faith or something

I thought everyone lost the faith? Like all the RVs today but without the insider trades and court cases. How the wheel turns huh.

[777]

Dividend of 2.58c /share. A little lower than I thought it would be.

[alokdhir]

Dividend of 2.58c /share. A little lower than I thought it would be.

Lowest on recent records ...which shows average NAV was $ 1.29 for the last qtr ...so it must be that

[bull....]

Dividend of 2.58c /share. A little lower than I thought it would be.

shouldnt it continue to keep falling as nav keeps going down

[777]

shouldnt it continue to keep falling as nav keeps going down

But the nav has generally increased over recent weeks so it doesn't always go down. $1.3130 last week, $1.3389 the previous week but 20/12/24 was $1.2901. I expect it will be lower tomorrow.

[Ricky-bobby]

Warrants are 2c! With sell side building, not ideal…

[alokdhir]

As long as there is time which is 5 more months ....there is hope of some miracles there ...lol

With overall market close to its near term bottom and results of main MFT / FPH / IFT out in may ....hope maybe justified then trying to salvage 2 cents

[Toddy]

BRM issued a notice of buyback on market.
Discount at 6 percent.

Good news.

[Sideshow Bob]

NAV at $1.3232

Over 2c increase in the last week

[Toddy]

Fast approaching the stage now where the trifecta of Fph, Mft and Ift really needs to come home. Otherwise the warrants are potentially looking at the bin.

Any buyer now should only be buying with conversion in mind.

[bull....]

said mths ago will end up worthless barring a miracle

[777]

Maybe some people thought the shares were ex dividend today rather than tomorrow.

[alokdhir]

Maybe some people thought the shares were ex dividend today rather than tomorrow.

Maybe tmrw SP is positive inspite of going ex divvy ...lol ...anything can happen during March madness :p

[bull....]

there funds are massive fee generating machines , look at the trend up in fee's lol. complete opposite is the performance lol. congrat's to management on such stellar performance

The version knocked together by Cameron Partners, and obtained by this column, says Fisher Funds is expected to make $NZ200 million ($187 million) in management fees alone (excluding performance fees) and circa $NZ100 million EBITDA this financial year. That’s nearly triple the $NZ70 million total revenue recorded in the 2017 financial year

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cameron-partners-chases-buy-side-role-for-fisher-funds-stake-20240311-p5fbgg

[Sideshow Bob]

there funds are massive fee generating machines , look at the trend up in fee's lol. complete opposite is the performance lol. congrat's to management on such stellar performance

The version knocked together by Cameron Partners, and obtained by this column, says Fisher Funds is expected to make $NZ200 million ($187 million) in management fees alone (excluding performance fees) and circa $NZ100 million EBITDA this financial year. That’s nearly triple the $NZ70 million total revenue recorded in the 2017 financial year

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/cameron-partners-chases-buy-side-role-for-fisher-funds-stake-20240311-p5fbgg

Much of this $200m would be ex Kiwisaver and other funds.

Kingfish for example at 1.25% gross, market cap of $429m - so about $5.3m (not arguing that this isn't good money). Barramundi and Marlin under half the size of Kingfish.

In 2022 Fisher had over $14.6b in Kiwisaver funds under management.

Still a good business - how many companies on the NZX don't have a revenue of $200m, and even less make $100m EBITDA.

Should list......

[bull....]

Much of this $200m would be ex Kiwisaver and other funds.

Kingfish for example at 1.25% gross, market cap of $429m - so about $5.3m (not arguing that this isn't good money). Barramundi and Marlin under half the size of Kingfish.

In 2022 Fisher had over $14.6b in Kiwisaver funds under management.

Still a good business - how many companies on the NZX don't have a revenue of $200m, and even less make $100m EBITDA.

Should list......

1.25% is horrendous in this day and age. looks like big s/h selling out of fisher

[777]

1.25% is horrendous in this day and age. looks like big s/h selling out of fisher

Looks like??? That has been mentioned regularly over the last 6-8 months. Mrs Fisher is the suspect.

[777]

Buy back started.

Shares being issued in the DRP at 1.1848 and buying them back at 1.22. Never seen the logic in this.

[Rawz]

Buy back started.

Shares being issued in the DRP at 1.1848 and buying them back at 1.22. Never seen the logic in this.

As long as they are buying under NAV its good buying.

[ronaldson]

If they only activate the buy back when the discount to NAV exceeds 6% then with the last announced at $1.3024 they can only purchase at $1.22, as $1.23 doesn't meet the criteria.

And presumably they do not buy in front of others bidding at $1.22 as they would wish to remain at the back of the queue? A sort of buyer of last resort but underpinning the share price at that figure, now that they are obviously in the market and presumably with free cash to allocate?

[alokdhir]

Buy back started.

Shares being issued in the DRP at 1.1848 and buying them back at 1.22. Never seen the logic in this.

DRP is to ONLY encourage people to opt for it ...as its better way to increase corpus then warrants ...rewarding loyal holders and increasing corpus ...while BUYBACK is more capital investment decision ....so both are different

[ronaldson]

I have posted previously about selling sufficient shares each quarter once they go ex dividend to yield a sum equivalent to the cash dividend, whilst still participating in the DRIP programme and receiving shares at the discount rate.

I completed this exercise with two holdings managed by me in relation to the current dividend by selling sufficient on market after the ex date at $1.17 (allowing also for the Jarden trade fee of $29.90 incurred ) to yield cash equal to the dividend, and now that the DRIP price is ascertained it is evident one account is 51 shares better off (once allotted on 15 December) and the other 112 shares better off. In both cases with a T + 2 settlement the cash is received days before the actual dividend payment date.

May be only a minimalist gain but it is available four times a year. You need quite a number of shares as a holder for this to be reasonably practicable - say 100k or so - but it doesn't take much effort and is relatively low risk given the 3% discount rate.

The above post is from 8 December. Now that the DRIP price for the current dividend is known I can calculate when allotted one account is 65 shares better off and the other 147 this time around.

I sold enough shares on market at $1.24 at the morning open when KFL went ex dividend and have had the funds since the T+2 settlement date, whereas the actual dividend has still yet to be paid.

So it is repeatable, although I have not considered it for other shareholdings. You need quite a lot of shares and a deep DRIP discount like KFL's 3%.

[winner69]

Market saying Warrants are almost next to worthless at moment

Only a few months to go

What needs to happen alokdhir for us to get richer

[alokdhir]

Market saying Warrants are almost next to worthless at moment

Only a few months to go

What needs to happen alokdhir for us to get richer

Pretty much a miracle with MFT / FPH/ IFT reporting before warrants go phuk ...

Base case is KFL can have nav of $ 1.35 before warrants expiry and SP maybe hovering just over exercise price of $ 1.26 ...so 2-3 Cents worth still possible if one gets lucky otherwise market knows best

[Ferg]

KFL have started buying back their own shares. This is the 3rd announcement in 3 days. Not large volumes so far.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428220

[SPC]

They need to keep buying because they'll be issuing me a truckload at a discount 🙂

[bull....]

wow doing buyback :scared: im in shock shock anyway if they dont raise the warrant funds they have to keep selling more portfolio to pay div's thus driving down nav and div's in an ever downward spiral. thats what happens in a flat market folks.

[Sideshow Bob]

Look like in December they paid out $8.85m in dividend, and got back $3.27m in the DRP - so about 37%.

[alokdhir]

Tmrw's NAV is going to be over $ 1.31+ and discount to nav 8% ...more they buyback at current prices more the NAV goes up ...:t_up:

[SPC]

..only if they were cancelled, which isn't the case. Same number of shares still in existence.
They are merely owned by the company temporarily rather than another holder. They'll be reissued and back in circulation next week.
A truckload will be heading my way.

[alokdhir]

ONLY IF CANCELLED or issued in lieu of new shares for DRP purposes ....as DRP wud have been issued new now they will issue from treasury stock thus not increasing the corpus resulting in small uplift in NAV ...please dont confuse buyback objectives with DRP objectives both work and have seperate goals ...DRP does reduce NAV as they being issued at huge discount these days but instead of issuing new shares based on current NAV ...provide treasury stock of buyback bought at 8% discount to NAV ...it works better for shareholders

PS : You use to get cash dividend as per your previous disclosures as u use to say I buy at my chosen price ...seems to finally realised the value of opting for DRP or maybe for current times only ??

[Rawz]

The easiest way would be to turn on DRP when there is a discount to NAV and then turn it off when there is a premium

[SPC]

Alokdhir I think you need to understand some basic mathematics.
The ONLY way the Net Asset value - NAV of ANY share can increase is either:
- the underlying value of the assets apportioned to that share increases;
- there is a reduction of the number of shares on issue- ie a share consolidation or buyback and cancellation.
No matter what price any buyer pays for the shares 'on market'- Kingfish corporate included, the number of shares remains the same. So does the NAV. Kingfish never cancel shares, they reissue them back to holders. They buy them cheap and 'sell' them (shares in lieu of cash) even cheaper to DRP participants. All holders will carry the cost of reissued and new shares issued at less than cost or NAV as the company is subsidizing them. We ARE the company. Simple as that.
Regarding me? Yes for this divided I have opted for shares issued at $1.18 instead of cash. Usually I take cash. In fact I have taken so much cash that my entire portfolio of KFL has already been fully covered by dividends received since 2006 and a few sales north of $1.60 a couple of years ago prior to the slump. Prudent portfolio management. I'm buying them back now.
My KFL portfolio is freehold. I would suggest to you that the last few years of DRP issued shares are worth less today than when they were issued in a falling market?. The cash isn't.
I've bought alot recently from cash dividends saved. As I've said in the past I don't play the generic kingfish game. They are just another share. You need to be at the steering wheel not the passenger seat.
So you know what works for you and I know what works for me.
Over and out.

[alokdhir]

SPC I dont need to reply to your post as it shows your complete ignorance about how overall NAV is calculated ....but still for the benefit of others who may be inclined to go with your hypothesis ...I will like to illustrate with an example

DRP is always in operation ...just for example lets take this quarter's numbers ...NAV is $ 1.3137 ...DRP price is $ 1.1848 ....KFL issues new shares @ $ 1.1848 worth NAV of $ 1.3137 thus reducing overall NAV to some extent
Now if they give same shares bought at $ 1.21 or so then total loss to corpus NAV is much less as they used treasury stock bought at 1.21 instead of issuing new shares which cost $ 1.3137 to them or to overall corpus ...thus reduction effect of DRP is much less if discounted shares bought in treasury operations passed on .

Hopefully now wont be need to explain simple maths . Passing treasury stock in lieu of new issued DRP stock is always beneficial to overall NAV as it doesn't further dilute the corpus . Doesn't look like Rocket science to me :cool:

[Rawz]

You two are saying the same thing lol

[alokdhir]

You two are saying the same thing lol

No Rawz U didnt get it right ...he says if KFL buys back shares at huge discount to NAV and passes them as DRP stock then it doesn't help boost NAV as they not being cancelled ....while I say they are passed on in lieu of NEW DRP shares thus helps keeping overall numbers down so it helps boost NAV ...that was the main point I made in my initial post to which he objected that nothing cancelled so no boost to nav ...in reality its some cancellation as they didnt issue new shares but passed stock bought at cheaper rate instead of issuing new at full nav ...so it DOES help boost nav

I agree that effect is so minuscule that it doesn't matter ...but then he started teaching simple maths ...lol

[alokdhir]

Now to serious business ...Bull says NAV will keep depleting due to dividends payout from capital .

1. Only 60% cash is paid which comes mainly from cash dividends they receive ...1% shortfall is to be covered per annum via stock sales ...little more DRP participation will diminish that also

2. As per my spreadsheet yesterday's NAV ex dividend reached AGAIN $ 1.324 and it still has lots of time to pay next divvy ...while market has been pretty much stagnant ...so dear Bull it can be done if u have a WELL managed portfolio even on NZX ...while enjoying the safety of a fund with its other enormous benefits like tax and regular income or discounted DRP etc ...free lunch at AGM is added perk which Mr B likes a lot :t_up:

[bull....]

3% roughly new shares issued in yr 23 320m compared to yr 22 320m so this dilutes nav

37m in div's paid out only 8m received in div's from companies owned

4m needed to pay management fee's

where the rest of income come from every body

[alokdhir]

Latest NAV as per my estimate is $ 1.343 ...SP $ 1.22 ...DISCOUNT 9.2% !!! Wow great opportunity to get into top stocks at 9+% discount

When MFT / IFT also joins the party like FPH then NAV can get further boost ahead ....my base estimate of $ 1.35 NAV after June divi seems easily achievable

[alokdhir]

UPDATE on KFL performance YTD

NZX50G YTD = + 2.87 %

KFL NAV including paid divi YTD = + 4.73%

ASX200 Index YTD = + 2.41 %

BRM NAV including divi paid YTD = + 6.9%

SP KFL YTD = + 2.73%

SP BRM YTD = + 2.01%

IMO SP will improve or there is scope for improvement when sentiment improves thus discounts will narrow to more normal levels of 1-3% ...

Double benefits possible ...navs goes up with markets and discounts narrowing

[alokdhir]

Read a post on other channel about LICs by FM ...

His main negative about Fisher funds is high management costs ...maybe he was more MLN specific as compared MLN performance with VOO returns etc

Coming to KFL as thats my focus ...Its adjusted NAV returns on last 5 years basis after all expenses including tax is 6.8% vs Index 4.7% ....so why would one grudge about costs of management if on LT basis it outperforms any vanilla ETF like NZG etc ...even FNZ ...in trying to reduce my cost I would have lost 2.1% PA

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428639

Almost 82000 shares bought ...thats very aggressive as per their past standards

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428684

[777]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428639

Almost 82000 shares bought ...thats very aggressive as per their past standards

They had to cover your DRP somehow alokdhir.

[alokdhir]

They had to cover your DRP somehow alokdhir.

They still saved a lot ...they save means we holders save ...cash is also part of NAV

Tmrw expecting NAV of $ 1.3420 ...that shud delight holders :t_up:

[kiora]

Are shareholders happy with the returns?
"Kingfish, which invests in NZ stocks, celebrated 20 years as a listed company by gaining 1c to $1.23. Over that period Kingfish has had a total shareholder return of 9.4% a year."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522972/nz-sharemarket-stuck-in-negative-territory-ahead-of-easter-weekend.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Mar+ 2024

[alokdhir]

Are shareholders happy with the returns?
"Kingfish, which invests in NZ stocks, celebrated 20 years as a listed company by gaining 1c to $1.23. Over that period Kingfish has had a total shareholder return of 9.4% a year."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522972/nz-sharemarket-stuck-in-negative-territory-ahead-of-easter-weekend.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+27+Mar+ 2024

All the LT holders are only adding ...so I reckon they very happy with KFL ...it suits my type of investors who need regular income with capital growth as bonus but not top priority ....neither looking for a multi bagger but safety of a known fund with 20 years track record of doing better then general market

[bull....]

All the LT holders are only adding ...so I reckon they very happy with KFL ...it suits my type of investors who need regular income with capital growth as bonus but not top priority ....neither looking for a multi bagger but safety of a known fund with 20 years track record of doing better then general market

ift be there best bet for most upside in kfl portfolio although when economy recover Vul should do good.

[alokdhir]

ift be there best bet for most upside in kfl portfolio although when economy recover Vul should do good.

So far they got most gains from MFT ...held from 2004 till now and always. in top 5 !!

[alokdhir]

Last update was a miss ...today's shud be closer at $ 1.3450 !!! Just lazy to fully update portfolio ...but still its providing very close Navs :p

[winner69]

Last update was a miss ...today's shud be closer at $ 1.3450 !!! Just lazy to fully update portfolio ...but still its providing very close Navs :p

Do they have any Synlait?

[alokdhir]

Do they have any Synlait?

No mate ...they are very savvy ...Blue chips and ATM ...lol

[alokdhir]

Last update was a miss ...today's shud be closer at $ 1.3450 !!! Just lazy to fully update portfolio ...but still its providing very close Navs :p

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428894

Closer this. time ...still I am over the actuals ...maybe the perma bull in me...lol. Rawz will agree. :D

7% discounted at current SP ...shud improve soon ...Bull shud help more

KFL warrants are 50/50 case of substantial exercise happening ...thus no FEAR of NAV dilutions unlike BRM which will surely get almost 100% exercised and resulting in 4-5 cents dilution ahead

[bull....]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428894

Closer this. time ...still I am over the actuals ...maybe the perma bull in me...lol. Rawz will agree. :D

7% discounted at current SP ...shud improve soon ...Bull shud help more

KFL warrants are 50/50 case of substantial exercise happening ...thus no FEAR of NAV dilutions unlike BRM which will surely get almost 100% exercised and resulting in 4-5 cents dilution ahead

the market rally if it continues might give them a chance of converting the warrants if share's can get up over 1.35. need good announcement from ift

[alokdhir]

the market rally if it continues might give them a chance of converting the warrants if share's can get up over 1.35. need good announcement from ift

Even chance of that ...IFT and MFT can help hopefully ...NAV of 1.40 and SP of 1.32 ....exercise price of 1.26 ...gives warrant worth of 5 cents + ...possible but need IFT and MFT to help

BTW yesterday's NAV crossed $ 1.35 !!!

SUM seems like a dark horse ...not to be overlooked

[alokdhir]

Expecting $ 1.34+ ...NAV

[alokdhir]

At present NAV looking like $ 1.335 and SP $ 1.22 ...ie 11+ cents discount !!!

[Rawz]

KFL should invest in TWR. Heck even do a deal to manage their float

[alokdhir]

KFL should invest in TWR. Heck even do a deal to manage their float

That deal is with SR ...he. is master of floats ...lol

Though TWR is in super limelight ...going great guns :t_up:

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/429794

NAV of $ 1.3366 and SP at 9% discount ...steepest of all 3 . Case for ....??

Important quarter too with IFT / MFT/ FPH plus some more results due

Also its becoming more and more possible that its warrants will not be in the money by July end thus NO DILUTION fears unlike BRM whose warrants will surely be in the money and thus will dilute NAV big way ...imo

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430059

My estimate after FPH heroics yesterday $ 1.3415 ...steepest discount still 9% !!!

[Rawz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430059

My estimate after FPH heroics yesterday $ 1.3415 ...steepest discount still 9% !!!

Great value.

[winner69]

Still buying own shares

Neighbour asked me if they have spare cash why don’t they buy more FPH or Vulcan shares if they think those companies are so good?

I said ‘financial engineering’

Hecsaid what to benefit the managers by making themselves look good

What do I really tell him …please …in simple words

[Toddy]

Still buying own shares

Neighbour asked me if they have spare cash why don’t they buy more FPH or Vulcan shares if they think those companies are so good?

I said ‘financial engineering’

Hecsaid what to benefit the managers by making themselves look good

What do I really tell him …please …in simple words

A easier answer is that they do not have alot of cash on hand. And if they tried to exit a nzx stock in their portfolio to release cash then it would probably put extreme pressure on that price.

Yes, the head shares represent fantastic value. So investors would prefer to buy the discounted head shares and receive the next dividend. Win win.

It is difficult to say why the discount is so large. But in the meantime what a bargain for this lucky enough to have cash to invest.

[winner69]

The discount to NAV is about $35m

Some might say that’s the present value of future management and performance fees

Those same punters would say that seems about right só discount is warranted

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir

As you master of all things Kingfish you wouldn’t have any historical data as to what the discount has been over the years would you

[Grimy]

I was happy enough to pick up a few this morning.

[Rawz]

Ive got a mate buying $50 of these and BRM each week via sharesies ($3 brokerage cost per month on one of their plans).

If the SP goes to par or above NAV ill tell her to stop.

Good value here and easy peasy investing imo.

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir

As you master of all things Kingfish you wouldn’t have any historical data as to what the discount has been over the years would you

I have been invested from April 2010 and SP was average 91 Cents with NAV around $ 1.10 ...thus huge discount ...at that time buy back kicked in after 10% discount ....it took a while for that discount to narrow ...many years I reckon ...but then it became normal for SP to be few cents discount to NAV and discount widened only around warrant exercise time ie around a month before and few after ...ONLY after Covid times we saw huge premium ...very unusual and very unhealthy ...but I reckon money lost total value and anything else was better ...people just wanted to get rid of cash at any price .

Also maybe market in its wisdom sees this as a Bond of some sort thus repricing its discount / premium compared to current rates ...its portfolio of well established blue chips can give some level of security to treat whole portfolio as a Bond !!!

https://kingfish.co.nz/investor-centre/market-announcements/

From above u can get NAVs and discounts since 2007

[alokdhir]

Still buying own shares

Neighbour asked me if they have spare cash why don’t they buy more FPH or Vulcan shares if they think those companies are so good?

I said ‘financial engineering’

Hecsaid what to benefit the managers by making themselves look good

What do I really tell him …please …in simple words

Buyback is only for OPTICS ...its value is minuscule to alter SP on any day ...its just trying to signal to potential buyers that its good value at current prices ...

I wanted them to control premium during covid fundays when it was trading over 20 cents to NAV ...but being close ended fund ...they can only buyback but not issue new shares as market maker ...thus many got burnt badly but maybe they still better off then buying Bond funds / treasuries at that level !!

[alokdhir]

Ive got a mate buying $50 of these and BRM each week via sharesies ($3 brokerage cost per month on one of their plans).

If the SP goes to par or above NAV ill tell her to stop.

Good value here and easy peasy investing imo.

Great way to invest and great advise mate ...almost certain to succeed without much risk ...

[alokdhir]

The discount to NAV is about $35m

Some might say that’s the present value of future management and performance fees

Those same punters would say that seems about right só discount is warranted

This cud have been true if all 3 ie KFL / BRM / MLN traded at same discount as all have similar fees structure ....at present discounts are 9% / 4% / 5% ....

PS : Also this explanation doesn't fit premiums to NAV which were present for almost 18 months !!!

If u invest funds with ANZ Private kind of wealth managers ...then they upfront charge u portfolio establishment fees ...where as if u buy KFL ...u get great and established portfolio at 9% discount

[winner69]

Friend had some old monthly data and I’ve updated ……..discount/premium to NAV last 10 years. It’s month end data

The red line is the important one …..others are average abd std deviations. These are used to calculate a thing called a Z-score which funds dealing in trusts etc use as buy sell signals.

KFL definitely a buy at current levels based on these numbers.

Is interesting what’s happen over the last 10 years it generally trades at discount to NAV but highlights that like many things over 2020/2022 got out of kilter …..and KFL was no exception and like many reverting to a more normal state.

I also tend to agree with alokdhir in that KFL is seen by many as a ‘bond’ and as such divie yield is a key driver of share price….probably stay that way for a while.

[mshierlaw]

Friend had some old monthly data and I’ve updated ……..discount/premium to NAV last 10 years. It’s month end data

The red line is the important one …..others are average abd std deviations. These are used to calculate a thing called a Z-score which funds dealing in trusts etc use as buy sell signals.

KFL definitely a buy at current levels based on these numbers.

Is interesting what’s happen over the last 10 years it generally trades at discount to NAV but highlights that like many things over 2020/2022 got out of kilter …..and KFL was no exception and like many reverting to a more normal state.

I also tend to agree with alokdhir in that KFL is seen by many as a ‘bond’ and as such divie yield is a key driver of share price….probably stay that way for a while.

A most excellent chart, many thanks for sharing. The picture tells a 1,000 words.

[alokdhir]

" The issue of new Shares on exercise of the Warrants may result in a consequential reduction in the net asset value (NAV) per Share once the new Shares are issued. The extent of the dilution effect (if any) on the NAV per Share will depend upon the actual number of Warrants exercised and the final Exercise Price in comparison
to the NAV per Share immediately prior to the issue of the new Shares.
In order to illustrate the potential reduction in NAV per Share for those who do not exercise or sell their Warrants, the dilution effect associated with prior Barramundi warrants over the last twelve years has ranged from a 0% to 5.3% reduction in NAV per Share "

As current buyers of BRM dont have the luxury of free warrants coming with BRM thus they open themselves to above risk ...ie dilution of NAV ahead ....with exercise price most likely to be 63 Cents compared to current SP of 71Cents ...they will surely be exercised majorly . Maybe thats why its discount to NAV is MORE warranted then KFL ...where as its higher at present for KFL then BRM ...must be demand supply mismatch as KFL clearly offers more value at current SPs

[Toddy]

Yes, KFL offers a great discounted entry price for those wanting more exposure to the NZX.

BRM offers exposure to Australian stocks and the warrants have time on their side.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/430364

NAV still $1.3371

Trading today $1.23 - 1.24