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D_Pick
04-12-2005, 12:54 PM
Does anyone else think that the current discount to diluted NAV is a bit large for Kingfish limited?

Ordinary Shares trading at 95 cents
NAV per ordinary share = 134.89 cents
Diluted NAV per ordinary share (allowing for conversion of warrants at $1.00) = 117.56 cents

Discount to NAV per ordinary share = 29.6%
Discount to NAV per diluted ordinary share = 19.2%

Kingfish have a buyback program for both the ordinary shares and the warrants, the ordinary shares purchased are being held as treasury stock, and the warrants purchased are being cancelled. So this should all be positive for the diluted NAV in the future.

D_Pick
28-02-2006, 10:20 AM
KFL head shares are back to the $1 mark, as we get closer to the 31 March warrant conversion date, the buyback program continues and some of the core stocks in this fund have recently announced impressive results.

If I'm reading the chart right the 30 day moving average is also now above the 100 day moving average. Which is a technical buy indicator.

As we get nearer to the 31 March warrant conversion date if the head shares remain above the $1 mark then some warrant holders may wish to convert. The warrants appear to have been holding the head shares back due to the dilution effect.

Anyone think this stock is overvalued at $1 ? I don't

blackcap
28-02-2006, 11:18 AM
This stock has been undervalued for quite some time now!

If it was a normal unlisted unit trust, then it would cost 1.17 to enter this unit whereas now it can be purchased at a huge discount.

Bobby_Fischer
28-02-2006, 11:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by D_Pick

As we get nearer to the 31 March warrant conversion date if the head shares remain above the $1 mark then some warrant holders may wish to convert.

It wouldn't make sense (doesn't mean no one will do it, of course) to convert unless the head shares were worth the same or more than the warrant SP plus cost of conversion ($1). Otherwise it would be cheaper to sell the warrants on market and buy the heads (give or take to odd bit of brokerage). With warrants priced at .136 the heads still need to gain another 13.6 cents to make conversion a goer.

kura
28-02-2006, 02:26 PM
As a matter of principle, any listed investment vehicle should trade at a discount to NAV, my thinking is that discount should be sufficient to cover the NPV of future management fees.

OldRider
28-02-2006, 02:30 PM
Check it out, as I haven't bothered to do so, and have no holding or real interest, but I had an idea that warrant conversion could take place
on 31 March on any of several years, not just this year, if this is the case the warrants could have value for a year or two yet, only the prospects of a large dividend would entice early conversion, but maybe I am wrong.

D_Pick
28-02-2006, 09:05 PM
Good point Bobby_Fischer

I'm assuming some warrant holders who picked the warrants up for free in the initial public offering will convert providing the head share is above $1. However if they are smart then it would be a better deal for them to sell the warrant and buy the heads for a (further) discount to NAV. i.e sell the warrant at 14c and effectively purchase the heads at $1 minus 14c = 86c. Currenty NAV is about 1.17 so this would be a 26.5% discount to diluted asset backing.

From the Investment Statement

Offer Summary

For each Share issued, subscribers will receive one Option
(the Option) to subscribe for a Share at an exercise price of
$1.00 exercisable on any of 31 March 2006, 31 March 2007
and 31 March 2008. Holders can exercise some or all of their
Options on any of these dates subject to a minimum exercise
of 500 Options.

Nigel
27-03-2006, 01:17 PM
I am thinking that KFL is a little undervalued, given the recent movements in its core investments. The price has moved today on the WAM merger, however PPL and FRE and RYM have all been trucking along at considerable rates.
I think we will see KFL continue to reach new highs over the next few weeks and months.
Others' thoughts welcomed.

sniper
27-03-2006, 05:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by Nigel

I am thinking that KFL is a little undervalued, given the recent movements in its core investments. The price has moved today on the WAM merger, however PPL and FRE and RYM have all been trucking along at considerable rates.
I think we will see KFL continue to reach new highs over the next few weeks and months.
Others' thoughts welcomed.


Wait for the next TUA - KFL bought up to $4.50, sold out at $2.20.
Or POD - bought up to $1.80, sold out at $1.16.
Or BGR - bought up to $2.70, sold out a $1.40.
Or RBD, or KID, or WHS or ......[xx(]

Nigel
27-03-2006, 09:34 PM
They have had some poor investments but my point is that their current holdings are performing well, and this value is not shown in the current shareprice. Sure, they may (and probably will) make some poor choices in the future, but the immediate future look positive.

CJ
27-03-2006, 10:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by Nigel

They have had some poor investments but my point is that their current holdings are performing well, and this value is not shown in the current shareprice.

Are you saying that the discount has got even bigger, or that the underlying shares that they invest in are undervalued.

I have considered investing - though of doing a play on the discount but if the discount never goes away, there is no play. Note: When I bought into WINZ it was at about a 10% discount. Not sure what it is now but it closed up jsut after my purchase (I consider this luck rather than planning but has made me think).

sniper
28-03-2006, 06:27 AM
quote:Originally posted by Nigel

They have had some poor investments but my point is that their current holdings are performing well, and this value is not shown in the current shareprice. Sure, they may (and probably will) make some poor choices in the future, but the immediate future look positive.


Accidents waiting to happen - that's how I would describe some of KFL's investments and investment strategy. TUA, RBD, WHS, BGR, KID, POD etc make for a parade of uglies invested in by KFL. What else lurks in the portfolio? That's why the share will always trade at a discount.

Nigel
28-03-2006, 06:39 AM
Back in December, at the start of this thread:
Ordinary Shares trading at 95 cents
NAV per ordinary share = 134.89 cents

eg shares trading at a 29.6% discount to NAV,

NAV as at 15 March = 146.64 cents
Ordinary shares trading at 108 cents yesterday

eg shares trading at 26% discount but not including any of the WAM (or recent PPL etc) action

The shareprice has accelerated recently to reflect the earlier value that was there, but I think it has some steam in it yet.

Disc: Hold KFL

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 08:45 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper

Accidents waiting to happen - that's how I would describe some of KFL's investments and investment strategy. TUA, RBD, WHS, BGR, KID, POD etc make for a parade of uglies invested in by KFL. What else lurks in the portfolio? That's why the share will always trade at a discount.

KFL was at the end of February invested in CTL, CVT, FRE, MFT, MHI, NZX, PPL, RYM, SOE, WAM according to the Fisher Funds Newsletter.

So now is your chance to prove that you are more than a backward looking whinger and tell us which of these are the accidents waiting to happen and why.

sniper
28-03-2006, 06:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by sniper

Accidents waiting to happen - that's how I would describe some of KFL's investments and investment strategy. TUA, RBD, WHS, BGR, KID, POD etc make for a parade of uglies invested in by KFL. What else lurks in the portfolio? That's why the share will always trade at a discount.

KFL was at the end of February invested in CTL, CVT, FRE, MFT, MHI, NZX, PPL, RYM, SOE, WAM according to the Fisher Funds Newsletter.

So now is your chance to prove that you are more than a backward looking whinger and tell us which of these are the accidents waiting to happen and why.



Could be NZX, could be CTL, could be SOE, could be FRE. History says that there's a strong likelihood that one or more will blow up in the next 12 months.

Would you invest in a company when it has that kind of track record? [^]

Snow Leopard
28-03-2006, 07:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper

Could be NZX, could be CTL, could be SOE, could be FRE. History says that there's a strong likelihood that one or more will blow up in the next 12 months.

Would you invest in a company when it has that kind of track record? [^]

Thank you for your reply.

Correct me if I am wrong, but what you seem to be saying is that you can not predict what the future holds and that given a reasonably diversified portfolio that one or more of its constituents will probably underperform, possibly drastically.
Would it surprise you to learn that this is normal and that even I have not made a profit on everything I have bought?

As for the track record for KFL, it appears to have outperformed the NZX50 since listing despite the NZX50 for 3/4 of that time being unrealistic in that it included the gross dividend income.

You appear to be critising KFL for not being perfect, that is dangerous territory to venture into to.

regards
The Paper Tiger

Anna Naum
28-03-2006, 08:05 PM
Sorry have I missed something, track record is very sound, when did they last blow up on a stock?

I remember my father investing in Carmel Fishers Fund when she was at Prudential, that blew up and she flew the roost very quickly but for a number of years she had good performance. I think the stock that was her ruin was Regal Salmon.

Nigel
28-03-2006, 08:15 PM
Sniper, you mentioned NZX, FRE, SOE and CTL as possible big losers. I don't follow FRE or NZX, but I am very happy for KFL to be holding CTL and SOE. SOE has gone from 90 cents to 1.10/1.20 in the last month or so and will benefit from a falling dollar. CTL is also a big exporter, growing in several new markets, and has potential for significant upside. I agree that there is an inherent risk in growth stocks but that is part of investing. KFL manage this risk through diversification, and you will see that their largest holdings are in more stable stocks such as WAM, RYM and PPL.

sniper
28-03-2006, 08:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Anna Naum

Sorry have I missed something, track record is very sound, when did they last blow up on a stock?

I remember my father investing in Carmel Fishers Fund when she was at Prudential, that blew up and she flew the roost very quickly but for a number of years she had good performance. I think the stock that was her ruin was Regal Salmon.


Ah ....Prudential. And it wasn't just Regal Salmon.

109% return in the first year on $10m then ...............blow-up on $120m.

Buy a small/mid cap illiquid stock and keep buying. Performance built on buying more and more of an ever illiquid stock and then, blow-up time. TUA is the best example of it.

CJ
28-03-2006, 09:43 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
As for the track record for KFL, it appears to have outperformed the NZX50 since listing despite the NZX50 for 3/4 of that time being unrealistic in that it included the gross dividend income.
Not sure if it will make a difference but shouldn't you compare it to the small companies index, or atleast the midcap index.

Small and mid cap is where it invests and where a lot of small investors who buy unit trusts dont invest.

Or maybe a comparison with the Midnz index fund which I guess is its passive competitor. I was debating between these two when I decided to buy TPW instead. Just annoyed i didn't pick up POT at the same time.

tsb
04-05-2006, 06:07 PM
I quiet like the look of KFL but it seems that they are trying their very best to talk the price up!

KFL
04/05/2006
FLLYR

REL: 1533 HRS Kingfish Limited

FLLYR: KFL: Updated Commentary

Please find a slightly updated commentary to accompany the Full Year Results
released earlier today.

Second year of strong performance for Kingfish.

Kingfish Limited ("Kingfish") announces a second year of strong performance,
increasing the value of the company net assets an impressive 64% since
listing in April 2004. Kingfish's Net Asset Value ("NAV") per share
increased from $1.2852 at 31 March 2005 to $1.5888 as at 31 March 2006, or
24%.

Kingfish Chairman, Rob Challinor said that "the increase in NAV was
substantially ahead of the Benchmark Rate of 14.43% (being 7% plus the change
in the NZX 90 day bank bill index for the year), reflecting the successful
efforts of the Manager, Fisher Funds Management Limited ("Fisher Funds"). It
is worth noting that the 24% annual increase in NAV was ahead of the
comparable 4% gain in the NZSX Smallcap Index and the 13% gain in the NZSX
Midcap Index".

Kingfish also announces an audited net surplus after tax of $18.8m for the
year ended 31 March 2006, a 12.95% increase over the previous year.

Kingfish has today declared a fully imputed ordinary dividend of 2.5 cents
per share which will be paid to shareholders on 16 June 2006. The record
date for the dividend is 5pm on 2 June 2006. Kingfish is investigating the
possibility of qualifying as a collective investment vehicle under the tax
changes proposed to come into effect on 1 April 2007. If it does qualify,
there would be no restriction on its ability to distribute gains from sale of
its investments. This should have a favourable impact on the level of future
dividends paid.

The Management Agreement with Fisher Funds provides for a payment of an
annual performance fee if returns are achieved above the Benchmark Rate. In
accordance with the Management Agreement subsequent to balance date, half the
value of the performance fee payable has been subscribed by Fisher Funds for
357,782 Kingfish shares at an issue price equal to the audited NAV per share
of $1.5888 at year end. The NAV is after the deduction of the performance fee
and Treasury Stock.

As at 31 March 2006, the Kingfish portfolio held 12 stocks which made up 97%
of total assets. Core stock holdings are: Freightways, Metlifecare, Waste
Management, Pumpkin Patch, Mainfreight, Michael Hill and Ryman Healthcare.
The Kingfish Nursery portfolio includes the following stocks: Comvita,
Kidicorp, NZ Exchange, Software of Excellence (Mandatory Convertible Notes)
and Cadmus Technology.

Seven of the 12 stocks in the portfolio posted share price gains during the
year, some of them quite spectacular. The four main performance contributors
were Freightways (+26%), Mainfreight (+77%), Ryman Healthcare (+76%) and
Waste Management (+39%). Carmel Fisher, stated "Profit results of the core
companies over the past year have been generally better than expected, while
certain companies have made very positive progress in executing their
expansion strategies. For example, Ryman Healthcare reported a 54% gain in
September 2005 interim profit and its management team was sufficiently
confident to predict at least that rate of growth for the full year.
Mainfreight's international businesses continue to go from strength to
strength, to the extent that the company now generates around 45% of its
earnings outside NZ. Turners Auctions 43% share price fall was the main
detractor from the portfolio performance."

The past 12 months has seen a resurgence of merger and takeover activity in
the NZ market, which has indirectly involved Kingfish. Offers were made for
all the shares in Metlifecare and Waste Management. The Kingfish Investment
Manager, Fisher Funds, declined to accept the Metlifecare offer and is still
in the process of assessing the merits of the Waste Management offer. Five
holdings were sold during the period: Turners Auctions, Turn

shasta
04-05-2006, 06:20 PM
TSB, I like KFL too, a share buyback is grossly underrated as a means of increasing shareholder value & shows managements faith in the company going forward.

Also the share price to NAV is at a significant discount, providing a rather nice "margin of safety".

Dividend is a tad low, but with a low P/E ratio both the heads & warrants look cheap.

Disc: Am looking at buying into both heads & warrants, but currently not a holder

funkyman
05-05-2006, 06:26 PM
Well here's the thing: I think kiwis who play the stock market are too much into DIY to get into a LIC (listed investment co) like KFL. Which is why the stock has always traded at such a discount to NAV - there just isn't the demand that, in a perfect world, there should be for such a share.

ALso - if you like KFLs holdings, why not just buy them directly? ie mainfreight, pumpkin patch, ryman, and metlife?

Slightly off-topic: Here's a list of LICS on the ASX:
http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/LIC_NTA_Report.pdf

They have a lot of LICs, most of them trade at a discount to NAV, but some actually trade at a premium - WAM is a good example and in my opinion worth investing in.

CJ
05-05-2006, 06:48 PM
They are jsut a unit trust but listed on the NZX. Most people who invest in unit trusts will avoid the stock market.

The likes of IFT and GPG have a hands on apprach rather than just an active management of KFL.

Rif-Raf
05-05-2006, 11:00 PM
This company has been a favourite of mine in recent months and have accumulated. The discount to NPV is far too severe especially considering they seem to be good stock-pickers.

Yes, you could hold the underlying stocks, however at the nav discount this is a cheap entry, plus someone is watching the stocks for you and making astute changes to the portfolio.

shasta
10-05-2006, 08:53 PM
The market seems to like the decision for Fisher Funds to exit WAM, so where to park the money now?

Up 5c today to $1.20, was kinda hoping this would stay under the radar for a wee bit longer.

Wonder if NZO is in the mix for there nursery stocks as a means to get into Pike River?

Perhaps grab some "cheap" TEL?

Deev8
11-05-2006, 12:17 PM
quote:Originally posted by funkyman

if you like KFLs holdings, why not just buy them directly? ie mainfreight, pumpkin patch, ryman, and metlife?

If you like KFL's holdings (and importantly, like all of their holdings) why would you buy them directly when you can get exposure to them at a significant discount by buying Kingfish?

I always like the idea of buying a dollar for 80c.

winner69
14-05-2006, 09:43 AM
Isn't part of the 'discount' to NAV the present value of future management and performance fees .... in KFL case quite high .... esp the peformance fee for any excessive returns..... look at what they got last year

Agree KFL is trading at a discount to NAV but probably not to the extent you think ... when such a valuation methodology is applied

kura
14-05-2006, 10:36 AM
My thinking was that 10%..15% discount is probably about right, in terms of NPV of future management fees, but to some extent this depends on quality of management, as if say Warren Buffet was the manager, then you could say then no discount at all was appropriate.

corsair
18-05-2006, 02:54 PM
Although it sounds good to buy kingfish because it is a discount to the shares it holds value such as the buying a dollar for 80cents this is pretty irrelevant is it not?

Because unless the discount margin changes your holding in kfl will always be about 20% lower than the market value of the individual shares so its basically the same.

funkyman
18-05-2006, 06:19 PM
exactly. Whats the point of buying a dollar for 80 cents when its highly unlikely - given the last year or two's worth of price history - that you'll be able to sell later for more than 80 cents...

kura
18-05-2006, 06:49 PM
The point is that at 80 %, you are essentially getting "free" management services, and quality management is more likely to grow the 80 cents faster than the likes of you or me could (thats the theory anyway)

Trouble is I like a more "hands on" approach to investing.

Having said that, they can be a good investment for those people who want more diversity (less risk) in their investments.

winner69
18-05-2006, 07:11 PM
Discount now down close to 10% ..... lowest been for some time

What you think will happen now shasta

shasta
18-05-2006, 07:38 PM
Cos im not in KFL it will likely keep going up!

I wanted in around $1.15 max :(

Disc: None & still watching [V]

Maroon
20-05-2006, 11:55 AM
You get the feeling that the share price is only at current levels ($1.21) because KFL are heavily buying back their own stock.

When the wallet is put away could we expect a fall?

Ttops
21-05-2006, 12:13 AM
Partly the price is up due to the buying back but perhaps they must have benefitted from the WAM price being confirmed. KFL should be getting a nice pile of cash from that. What better than to continue buying back if there is no obvious replacement for WAM? Previous comments about buying the individual shares rather than KFL. In my case I would wasted Brokerage fees and only had small amounts of cash to buy so rather than gamble on my lack of share picking expertise I chose GPG and KFL thanks to advise from this site. Shares KFL seemed to hold were picked regularly in the PT's game. Bought in at 93 and 102 when they were discounted around 20% in KFL and 201 in GPG. Thanks guys. I should have bought some warrants in hindsite but they seem overpriced now?

burtsboy
25-05-2006, 10:31 AM
Need to consider what Dunne/Cullen are upto with this stock. Could be that you may be asked to pay tax on gains?

Havoc
25-05-2006, 11:54 AM
quote:Originally posted by burtsboy

Need to consider what Dunne/Cullen are upto with this stock. Could be that you may be asked to pay tax on gains?

No more so for this stock than any other hidden agenda to bring in capital gains tax in NZ.

CJ
25-05-2006, 07:11 PM
quote:Originally posted by Havoc


quote:Originally posted by burtsboy

Need to consider what Dunne/Cullen are upto with this stock. Could be that you may be asked to pay tax on gains?

No more so for this stock than any other hidden agenda to bring in capital gains tax in NZ.


I think the new rules will confirm that they dont pay "CGT" on long held NZ shares.

Rif-Raf
25-05-2006, 08:16 PM
NAV just keeps creeping up $1.73/$1.37 Gap of around 25c below diluted NAV
Well done Carmel - you're delivering

winner69
25-05-2006, 08:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by Rif-Raf

NAV just keeps creeping up $1.73/$1.37 Gap of around 25c below diluted NAV
Well done Carmel - you're delivering



more like 11% isn't it

Ttops
02-06-2006, 12:46 AM
NAV 1.7515 /Diluted NAV 1.3861 A 12.7% discount reduced from 15.02% a month ago. KFL has bought a 6% stake in DGL. What do you think of DGL?

Ttops
05-07-2006, 11:25 AM
KFL
05/07/2006
DIVIDEND

REL: 1003 HRS Kingfish Limited

DIVIDEND: KFL: Special Dividend Announced

NEWS RELEASE 5 JULY
2006

KINGFISH TO PAY SHAREHOLDERS SPECIAL DIVIDEND

Listed investment company Kingfish is to pay shareholders a special dividend
after a year of outstanding returns. Kingfish grew its net asset value by
24% in the year to 31 March 2006.

Announcing the special dividend at its annual shareholders meeting, Kingfish
chairman Robert Challinor said shareholders holding shares by the record date
of 21 July 2006, would receive a fully imputed dividend payout of 2.5 cents
per share.

"The board has elected and is able to pay this special dividend because
Kingfish has received greater than expected dividend income over the past
couple of months," Mr Challinor said. The most significant portion of this
additional dividend income was from a special dividend declared by Waste
Management as part of its recent amalgamation with Transpacific Industries
Group.

Kingfish director Carmel Fisher said the special dividend was in line with
the Kingfish dividend policy of distributing income after deducting operating
and management costs, including tax and financing costs.

Ms Fisher told shareholders at the annual meeting the March 2006 year had
been a year of impressive performance with the Kingfish portfolio yielding
strong results despite a challenging economic climate. Net asset value rose
24% to $1.58 per share in the year to 31 March 2006, compared with the share
market benchmark increase of 14%. Since balance date, the Kingfish net asset
value has increased to $1.7825 as at 30 June 2006.

"Our performance has exceeded a buoyant share market, reflecting the growth
prospects of the companies in our portfolio," Ms Fisher said. During the
year, Ryman Healthcare and Mainfreight had been star performers with the
share prices of each lifting more than 70%.

Ttops
05-07-2006, 11:40 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by sniper

Accidents waiting to happen - that's how I would describe some of KFL's investments and investment strategy. TUA, RBD, WHS, BGR, KID, POD etc make for a parade of uglies invested in by KFL. What else lurks in the portfolio? That's why the share will always trade at a discount.

KFL was at the end of February invested in CTL, CVT, FRE, MFT, MHI, NZX, PPL, RYM, SOE, WAM according to the Fisher Funds Newsletter.

So now is your chance to prove that you are more than a backward looking whinger and tell us which of these are the accidents waiting to happen and why.



Could be NZX, could be CTL, could be SOE, could be FRE. History says that there's a strong likelihood that one or more will blow up in the next 12 months.

Would you invest in a company when it has that kind of track record? [^]


Did you mean blow UP, as in increase?[^]
Treetops

shasta
05-07-2006, 05:23 PM
Treetops, the DGL purchase intrigues me as a KFL holder.

If they meet/beat there forecasts & the Oyster Bay type fiasco's are out the way, this could surprise in a year or two.

Personally, i question the DGL & RAK purchases & am waiting to see what they do with the WAM money.

The special dividend & share buyback has breathed some life into KFL recently, as its now at its 12 month high, where to from here though?

Disc: Happy holder

Ttops
05-07-2006, 09:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, the DGL purchase intrigues me as a KFL holder.

If they meet/beat there forecasts & the Oyster Bay type fiasco's are out the way, this could surprise in a year or two.

Personally, i question the DGL & RAK purchases & am waiting to see what they do with the WAM money.

The special dividend & share buyback has breathed some life into KFL recently, as its now at its 12 month high, where to from here though?

Disc: Happy holder

Me too.:) How much they have invested in Rak and DGL I'm not sure but it will be small in KFL. Fisher funds probably has most. So far so good anyway.

You are right Shasta. A large component of the WAM money is still not revealed. The five largest portfolio holdings at 28 June 2006 ([u]just before the WAM payout</u>) are approximately as
follows:

Ryman Healthcare -17.7%
Mainfreight - 13.7%
Waste Management - 13.5%
Pumpkin Patch - 11.0%
Freightways - 9.6%
So it was 13.5% of the portfolio and a 2.5% spec. div. isn't much.
Some will go into the buyback. I guess its time for Carmel to show how good :) or bad [}:)] she really is. It's getting to that point where really good investments are few and far between. :( I liked RAK and DGL as exporters and our dollar still has further to fall. Rak in particular could be a real winner. Personally I couldn't take the risk with them as individual shares, but as a small part of a managed portfolio I'm more at ease. For the larger investor with more time and expertise I'm sure buying the individual shares is better. For me I'm very satisfied with the proportion of each share in the portfolio. Which is best out of RYM FRE and MFT. MFT and FRE today! :D

I would like to thank [u]D_Pick </u>for his original posting on 4/12/05 It alerted me to cash in. What the discount is now we will find out tomorrow.

Treetops

D_Pick
05-07-2006, 10:48 PM
A pleasure Treetops

KFL have had a good run. However they do have an underlying portfolio of quality stocks with good future potential and high return on equity. Which obviously has been attractive to other investors

How they reinvest WAM monies will be interesting.

Lawso
06-07-2006, 10:46 AM
On another thread Treetops has been advising me to put some of my ex-WAM cash into KFL. Why would I?

I have a lot of respect for chairman Rob Challinor and Carmel Fisher no doubt knows her job. Their policy appears to have been to invest in small to mid-cap stocks, putting growth potential ahead of dividend income. But since listing in March 2004 at $1 the company's performance has been less than spectacular. The current s p of 125 represents pretty ordinary growth over 28 months. Especially when the div yield is so modest - less than 3% until the 2.5c spec div announced yesterday boosted the potential yield to 4.88%. I'd be cheesed off if my own portfolio didn't do much better than that.

One wonders how much get swallowed up in "operating and management costs, including tax and financing costs", to quote from yesterday's announcement. I prefer the fun of making my own decisions while avoiding those pesky "operating and management costs".

Ttops
06-07-2006, 01:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

On another thread Treetops has been advising me to put some of my ex-WAM cash into KFL. Why would I?

I have a lot of respect for chairman Rob Challinor and Carmel Fisher no doubt knows her job. Their policy appears to have been to invest in small to mid-cap stocks, putting growth potential ahead of dividend income. But since listing in March 2004 at $1 the company's performance has been less than spectacular. The current s p of 125 represents pretty ordinary growth over 28 months. Especially when the div yield is so modest - less than 3% until the 2.5c spec div announced yesterday boosted the potential yield to 4.88%. I'd be cheesed off if my own portfolio didn't do much better than that.

One wonders how much get swallowed up in "operating and management costs, including tax and financing costs", to quote from yesterday's announcement. I prefer the fun of making my own decisions while avoiding those pesky "operating and management costs".


Lawso
Are you not forgetting the free Warrants worth 34c and I think the shares sold at IPO for 97c.
http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/2006-Kingfish-ASM-Presentation.ppt

Anyway good things come to those with patience. I also advise GPG for diversity. I bought in at 93c early Dec05 and 102 Feb 06 and and don't have any warrants which are doing even better. If I had bought those at 14cents I would be really happy now but I still wonder about warrants. The time restrints give me the geebies and thats why I don't bet on the TAB. I'm a cautious person at heart you see and grabbed at KFL then because it had shares most of the sharetrader bloggers recommended and was at discount and had a buyback going all which I had experienced as positive. If anyone is to be praised for my "luck" it is the people like you with more experience than me that discuss things. D_Pick,PT, Macdunk, Phaedrus even Sniper! I'm on a learning curve but I know for sure I would rather be in KFL and GPG than trying to pick an individual share or three right now. It's clearly not for you and I respect that. One other reason I liked KFL was it was getting a tax break on its long term holdings CG's but I may be wrong there. The other was the prospect of a falling dollar which came much sooner than I expected but still has more room to run and it has a good export component. The management fees are linked to success and being a fair man if Carmel can make me happy I don't mind her enjoying some as well. Go Carmel! :) I would sooner be in KFL or GPG than a totally unregulated finance company. Don't take that literally. But it is still the wild west for them. You get my gist. The govt. needs to get its act together fast and something is coming out in Sept. Too late for many though as laws take yonks to enact. Al the best with your choices and do have fun. I agree with that. ;)
Treetops

Ttops
06-07-2006, 02:10 PM
NTA: KFL: Kingfish NAV $1.8147 at 5 July 2006 02:31pm
KFL
06/07/2006
NTA

REL: 1431 HRS Kingfish Limited

NTA: KFL: Kingfish NAV $1.8147 at 5 July 2006

The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share of the Company as at 5 July
2006 was $1.8147
[u]The unaudited diluted net asset value per ordinary share as at 5 July 2006
was $1.4186.</u> This diluted net asset value describes the effect if all
warrants in existence were exercised today at $1.00. At 30 June 2006,
54,911,007 warrants remain to be exercised on 31 March 07 and/or 31 March
2008.

The net asset values per share are after the deduction of treasury stock and
warrants acquired and subsequently cancelled under the Kingfish buyback
announced on 26 October 2005.

The net asset values are after including accruals for any performance fee
payable to the Manager.

The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share excluding performance fees
as at 5 July 2006 was $1.8261 (fully diluted $1.4245).

The five largest portfolio holdings at 5 July 2006 are approximately as
follows:

Ryman Healthcare - 17.7%
Mainfreight - 14.8%
Pumpkin Patch - 10.0%
Metlifecare -10.4%
Freightways - 9.8%

End
End CA:00133756 For:KFL Type:NTA Time:2006-07-06:14:31:03


It appears to be at 1.30 at low volume but a bid of 1.32 and offer 1.35 High depth buy of 225k and 4k sell KFLWA at 35c Someone likes this share as well Lawso I would advise you have missed the boat on this one. Wait for bad news. ;)
At 132 they are at a 7% discount to unaudited diluted net asset value to ordinary share Perhaps we need to start a new thread. KFL Warrants or head shares? [?] Perhaps someone with knowledge on this and could help me out. [8)] [:I]

Treetops
At 136 a 4% disc to dil NAV unless the NAV has already risen. Quite possible! :D The KFL Warrants are at 36c Some sellers coming in at 135

Looks like a good rise for the day. Note [u]CTL merger </u>http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10389957
Good or bad. Does look like a lot of selling pressure. I'm sure Sniper or some FA will let me know if it's :( ;)

T

Ttops
06-07-2006, 04:41 PM
KFL $1.34 up 7 or 5.5% KFLWA 37 up 3 or 8.8%

Did they read Lawso's comments early today and decide it was undervalued? ;) Perhaps they see more takeovers in it like WAM.
At $1.23 I recommended it to Lawso! ;)
There are many marauding funds, flush with cash and staffed by the smart operators, who prowl the globe looking for business to buyhttp://www.interest.co.nz/bennett-30Jun2006.asp

I believe it to be fully valued at last and perhaps it will be seen for what it is. A well managed diversified selection of midcap shares in one tidy little bundle that saves on worry and brokers fees. They must hate the thought!

[:X][:X]Carmel
T [^]

Ttops
06-07-2006, 05:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, the DGL purchase intrigues me as a KFL holder.

If they meet/beat there forecasts & the Oyster Bay type fiasco's are out the way, this could surprise in a year or two.

Personally, i question the DGL & RAK purchases [u]& am waiting to see what they do with the WAM money.</u>
The special dividend & share buyback has breathed some life into KFL recently, as its now at its 12 month high, where to from here though?

Disc: Happy holder


The answer is in their presentation.
http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/reports.htm then open
ASM presentation 5 July 2006 Slide 14 [/b]More RAK DGL MHI and PPL
Slide 13 shows where their profits :) have come from in the last 3mths since bal date. Worth looking at.

What do you think of the rise today $1.34? :D
Treetops

Lawso
06-07-2006, 07:17 PM
Very worthwhile conributions, TT. I've read with interest and will keep an open mind about KFL but it probably is now fully valued. And I still prefer doing my own thing rather than paying someone else to do it for me.

I note that MET now makes up 10.4% of their holdings. That must be what a big chunk of their WAM proceeds went into. Other major holdings don't seem to have altered much.

rmbbrave
06-07-2006, 08:10 PM
I bought some of these first thing this morning at 1.25 - now they are at 1.34 - great stuff!

The depth was very interesting first thing this morning.

Someone had 100,000 for sale @ 1.25 but there were buyers for small amounts @ 1.26 and 1.27 and for 90,000 @ 1.25.

I can only imagine the seller put them up for sale yesterday and wasn't paying attention this morning.

Luckily I was. 7.2% profit in one day.

Thanks very much D Pick and Treetops for bringing this little gem to my attention.

Ttops
06-07-2006, 08:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Very worthwhile conributions, TT. I've read with interest and will keep an open mind about KFL but it probably is now fully valued. And I still prefer doing my own thing rather than paying someone else to do it for me.

I note that MET now makes up 10.4% of their holdings. That must be what a big chunk of their WAM proceeds went into. Other major holdings don't seem to have altered much.



Lawso
I think the increase in % is due to MET increasing from 4.50 to 5.90 and that is 31% over three mths making it second only to Ryman see slide 13 of the presentation which is well worth a look. See previous TT. They may have bought none in fact. When WAM dropped out Met entered the top five. Their weekly NAV release only gives the % of the top five shares. So their portfolio % changes as their component shares rise and fall. Rym has risen by 32 % as well from 6.60 to 8.70. If RAK keeps increasing in value at its current rate 5.9% today it may surplant one of the top five. You are right about fully valued as the component shares are. I think one of the reasons it is fully valued is it suddenly seems to be noticed at AGM time and forgotten by everyone except a few ardent fans [8)].The spec div also attracts some but that is only 2.5%. I think it KFL wasn't even mentioned on the ZB report tonight though and yet RYM was. It is hard to fathom. My ASB Sec online broker research section has nothing on its prospects either. I think the brokers don't like it either for obvious reasons. I personally think what you lose in management fees you gain by not having to pay brokerage at both the buy and sell. Say you buy RYM MFT RAK FRE PPL and then decide to sell up and splash out on a house or a holiday you cop five sets of $30 fees. Buy KFL once and sell once. It goes some way to mitigating the fees which are included in the diluted NAV.
Profit takers will come in tomorrow but I'm not a trader and I expect it to drop back to $1.28 -1.30 $1.26 would be a good buy now with the div.
TT

Ttops
06-07-2006, 09:02 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought some of these first thing this morning at 1.25 - now they are at 1.34 - great stuff!

The depth was very interesting first this morning.

Someone had 100,000 for sale @ 1.25 but there were buyers for small amounts @ 1.26 and 1.27 and for 90,000 @ 1.25.

I can only imagine the seller put them up for sale yesterday and wasn't paying attention this morning.

Luckily I was. 7.2% profit in one day.

Thanks very much D Pick and Treetops for bringing this little gem to my attention.

My Pleasure[^]
TT

Ttops
06-07-2006, 10:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, the DGL purchase intrigues me as a KFL holder.

If they meet/beat there forecasts & the Oyster Bay type fiasco's are out the way, this could surprise in a year or two.

Personally, i question the DGL & RAK purchases & am waiting to see what they do with the WAM money.

The special dividend & share buyback has breathed some life into KFL recently, as its now at its 12 month high, where to from here though?

Disc: Happy holder

Me too.:) How much they have invested in Rak and DGL I'm not sure but it will be small in KFL. Fisher funds probably has most. So far so good anyway.

You are right Shasta. A large component of the WAM money is still not revealed. The five largest portfolio holdings at 28 June 2006 ([u]just before the WAM payout</u>) are approximately as
follows:

Ryman Healthcare -17.7%
Mainfreight - 13.7%
Waste Management - 13.5%
Pumpkin Patch - 11.0%
Freightways - 9.6%
So it was 13.5% of the portfolio and a 2.5% spec. div. isn't much.
Some will go into the buyback. I guess its time for Carmel to show how good :) or bad [}:)] she really is. It's getting to that point where really good investments are few and far between. :( I liked RAK and DGL as exporters and our dollar still has further to fall. Rak in particular could be a real winner. Personally I couldn't take the risk with them as individual shares, but as a small part of a managed portfolio I'm more at ease. For the larger investor with more time and expertise I'm sure buying the individual shares is better. For me I'm very satisfied with the proportion of each share in the portfolio. Which is best out of RYM FRE and MFT. MFT and FRE today! :D

I would like to thank [u]D_Pick </u>for his original posting on 4/12/05 It alerted me to cash in. What the discount is now we will find out tomorrow.

Treetops


Shasta
Looking at the profit KFL made from each of its Shares in its portfolio over the last 3 months from slide 13 in the presentation and if the vague chart is correct then about 1.2% came from RAK on a 20% increase and .75% from DGL on a 25.4% increase Since 13.5% was WAM perhaps about 7-8% RAK and 4-5% DGL the rest .5-2.5%in MHI and PPL is my guestimate. We can't know when they bought and therefore how much increase they got but I suspect that most was from the IPO with small topups since. Of course I may be totally up the booeye. I thought they would keep the proportion smaller in their nursery though. Can anyone help here. The % increases I used were judged off graphs from IPO to 30th June. The rest is largely intuitive ;)and if you want to know how I arrived at these figures I will have to kill you afterwards.[xx(] They could have more in cash but I think the ratio of RAK/DGL to be about 1.6 or roughly 3:2 lets not assume a great degree of accuracy.

I personally would be quite happy with those proportions. What do you think assuming they are roughly correct? [?]
TT

bushbasher
07-07-2006, 04:08 AM
Does anyone know if KFL have commented on the proposed CTL merger yet?

Discl: I bought both KFL heads and options in March because I felt I was effectively buying a portfolio of the quality shares I wanted in the market at a substantial discount to buying the actual shares individually (due to KFL trading below NAV). This seemed like a no-brainer to me. Options now up 61%.

shasta
07-07-2006, 07:38 AM
Thanks Treetops,

I believe KFL used there debt facility to buy in on both RAK & DGL IPO's, not sure they have bought any since. So now we know the WAM money was used to repay the loan facility, share buyback & special divvie.

Am liking the fact they are still working on the image/promoting themselves, as there results to date (& for the 2006/07 year) show that a well managed company should be at a premium not a discount!.

Looking for $1.40 short term

Ttops
07-07-2006, 10:21 AM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Thanks Treetops,

I believe KFL used there debt facility to buy in on both RAK & DGL IPO's, not sure they have bought any since. So now we know the WAM money was used to repay the loan facility, share buyback & special divvie.

Am liking the fact they are still working on the image/promoting themselves, as there results to date (& for the 2006/07 year) show that a well managed company should be at a premium not a discount!.

Looking for $1.40 short term


Shasta, very concisely stated. I am a rambler.[:I]
All WAM holders take note how to exit and buy in before the crowd. A well managed company for sure. It could be the WAM people getting in to KFL now but a bit late sorry.

I still can't get my head around the fact that only four days ago it was a bargain at 1.22 and I had no money to buy. :( I still wonder how people rush in now at 1.32 when it was so cheap. Don't they read sharetrader!! [^] Let the over-optimism subside if you take my advice. No one can acuse me of ramping ;) But I will probably be wrong again as I was with TPW. It just kept rising on me.

I have too much in CEN and as CEN's a good buy right now I don't want to sell it. Who knows who might buy it for $9.50 +. I wonder what Phaedrus would advise? I'm going to get out of my AMP super instead and wait for another opportunity. It's always been a dud and their trail and management fees and exit fees are abhorrent compared to using KFL. I will be missing out again I guess but I will be patient. I actually think GPG is on a runner too and catching up fast. It is probably better value now for the WAM money. Hey should I enter the tipster comp. I'm just as good as MacDunk ;) I admit to not buying though. I'm not rich. Who is with kids! :)


Re CTL no comment above,as far as I know but looks like a lot want to sell, but the buyers are quite happy to come in at 21c so far which is in its trading range so there is no dramatic drop coming I hope. Perhaps the merger aint so bad after all although it did appear to favour the Aussie company. CTL appear to want to expand which I don't mind at all and that is why they merged. 10% of the world market isn't bad for a KIWI Company There is another comment about it wanting to merge again from their CEO


$1.25 buy does look like a bargain for you RMB! Well done you early bird [8D]

Treetops

shasta
07-07-2006, 10:47 AM
Treetops, I see the NZX itself is having a capital return (1: 8 = $9.69), followed by a share split 1:1.

Not sure how many shares KFL have in NZX but some more money to play with, along with the play in CTL at the moment.

I got in at $1.23 & very happy i did so!

Ttops
07-07-2006, 11:22 AM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, I see the NZX itself is having a capital return (1: 8 = $9.69), followed by a share split 1:1.

Not sure how many shares KFL have in NZX but some more money to play with, along with the play in CTL at the moment.

I got in at $1.23 & very happy i did so!


Shasta
I must admit to being surprised at the support today. I expected more profit takers but it seems your comment about a premium soon could be true. A very good prediction. I certainly hope you are right. D_PICK will be pleased as well :) I presume he did buy some?[?]

At 31 March KFL had about 2% of its portfolio in NZX

RAK is on a runner today. I hope they do have a decent chunk in it as I suggested last night.
I suspect this share has had some exposure in the newspapers perhaps or from brokers perhaps at last. Can anyone confirm this[?] I am a cheapie on-liner:( and ASB SEC don't even have a decent research guide on this. :( Can any of you others recommend a decent on-line broker that has research on KFL I would be most interested in what they are saying or not. Might be a very good way to choose my next one eh! Are you reading this ASB ;)
Go Carmel[:X]
Treetops

Ttops
07-07-2006, 11:54 AM
FRE buying Databank in AUS for A$30m and expects A$2.7 m earnings in first year. Favourable if our $NZ keeps falling against the Aussie[?]

The expected total price represented an effective multiple of seven times ebitda.

The purchase was expected to be immediately earnings positive for Freightways.

DataBank is the No 2 operator by market share in offsite data storage in Australia, Freightways managing director Dean Bracewell said.
He said the sector was an underdeveloped and a growing niche.

Databank has an operating culture similar to that of Freightways' existing New Zealand information management businesses, he said.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10390180

Treetops
Warren Couillault, chief investment officer at Fisher Funds, which has 10.85 per cent of Freightways, said the express freight and data storage businesses were complementary. "You pick up data tapes every day so you need a fleet of people on the road. So if you can manage fleets and courier people, it ties in together."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3724798a13,00.html

Fisher Funds (FF) has a pivotal interest at 10.85% if a takeover of FRE occurs. Effectively the same holds for KFL then as they have the same managers. Just like FF's have extracted value for KFL by holding MET and blocking a full T O, they will be able to do the same in FRE. This has been rumoured apparently. Just another reason I like KFL ;) Most of its shares are desirable.[^] Maybe someone could check out the other FF interests in KFL's component companies. I'm off to watch some rugby. If I am up the booeye please correct me! [^] Does it not mean even KFL is a take over prospect or is that dreaming? Something to think about anyway. Perhaps that is why it is approaching the true value of its component shares? [?]
RYM MFT MET PPL FRE MHI ..RAK[?] DGL[?] ..NZX CVT SOE CTL:( KID:(
TT

Ttops
07-07-2006, 12:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by bushbasher

Does anyone know if KFL have commented on the proposed CTL merger yet?

Discl: I bought both KFL heads and options in March because I felt I was effectively buying a portfolio of the quality shares I wanted in the market at a substantial discount to buying the actual shares individually (due to KFL trading below NAV). This seemed like a no-brainer to me. Options now up 61%.


Bushbasher
Wiser man than me getting the warrants. Up again today at 38. I presume you will hold the warrants or will you sell before 2008? What did you buy KFL and KFLWA at? Warrants intrigue me but I'm still very cautious. You do miss out on divs and spec divs of course but that capital gain is exceptional and increasing daily.

It would make sense to hold while they are on an uptrend, Phaedrus would say. At 38 c for the warrants buyers are saying we expect to be better off in 2008 than paying 1.38 for the shares plus any divs or are the speculators in on a good thing. Can anyone post a graph of the KFL compared to KFLWA Please.[:X]

Re CTL Have you read this?http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10390121

Treetops

joey
08-07-2006, 02:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by Nigel

I am thinking that KFL is a little undervalued, given the recent movements in its core investments. The price has moved today on the WAM merger, however PPL and FRE and RYM have all been trucking along at considerable rates.
I think we will see KFL continue to reach new highs over the next few weeks and months.
Others' thoughts welcomed.


Wait for the next TUA - KFL bought up to $4.50, sold out at $2.20.



Or POD - bought up to $1.80, sold out at $1.16.
Or BGR - bought up to $2.70, sold out a $1.40.
Or RBD, or KID, or WHS or ......[xx(]


Sniper, How do you know what price KFL sold these investments at, I image it would not be one price, but many sales as they sold out?

winner69
08-07-2006, 05:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by joey


quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by Nigel

I am thinking that KFL is a little undervalued, given the recent movements in its core investments. The price has moved today on the WAM merger, however PPL and FRE and RYM have all been trucking along at considerable rates.
I think we will see KFL continue to reach new highs over the next few weeks and months.
Others' thoughts welcomed.



Wait for the next TUA - KFL bought up to $4.50, sold out at $2.20.



Or POD - bought up to $1.80, sold out at $1.16.
Or BGR - bought up to $2.70, sold out a $1.40.
Or RBD, or KID, or WHS or ......[xx(]


Sniper, How do you know what price KFL sold these investments at, I image it would not be one price, but many sales as they sold out?


Shareholder notices generally include the consideration so can work out the average prices they paid or sold ... even if over mnay transactions

The last lot of POD they sold were 1.4 million at an average of $1.07 .... good timing .... or some say they should have averaged down

Phaedrus
09-07-2006, 09:06 AM
What sort of person buys a managed fund?
Those lacking the time, confidence or ability to select their own stocks.
Those wanting the security and simplicity of buying a "basket" of stocks with a single transaction.
Those wanting to "Buy and Hold" rather than actively trade.
Those wanting an actively managed fund, rather than an Index fund.
Those wanting a secure investment, giving superior returns.
Those wanting to avoid the volatility and associated risks of owning a single stock.

How well does KFL measure up?
Their stock selection skills are decidedly undistinguished.
Their overall performance is most kindly described as mediocre.
KFL is more volatile than Index funds and stocks like BRY and GPG.
(Many people equate volatility with risk)
Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.

Why, then, would you want to buy this thing?
There isn't even a juicy dividend stream to distort your perspective!

Ignore my ranting. Look at the chart. See how KFL underperforms any number of ordinary, sound, well performing stocks. See how it went nowhere for years. See how the relative rankings shown here have not changed over the last 2 years.

I could show you methods that double the "Buy and Hold" return of KFL. Tools that would get you out of the current uptrend when it begins to weaken. Mechanisms that would lock-in profits. Look at what happened last time KFL made spectacular gains - ALL given back to the market. With KFL there is no point posting such information because people that are interested in managed funds are by definition not a bit interested in trading.
They prefer to buy, hold, and trust Carmel (rather than Ron!)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v418/789456/KFLp79003.gif

rmbbrave
09-07-2006, 09:25 AM
Phaedrus,

As a trader shouldn't all you be interested in is whether the SP is going up (or down) irrespective of the type of business? You seem to be condeming KFL because it is a managed fund.

Over the last 2 years your point that the returns have been mediocre is fair enough. However, in the last 6 months the SP has been going up at a good rate of knots - meaning those traders who have bought in the last 6 month have had a good retun.

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

duncan macgregor
09-07-2006, 09:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

RMBBRAVE, Nothing wrong with that if you can pick when it will happen. The trouble with that is you cant. Managed funds are for people that think it is also complicated that its beyond them.
I to had a win last week with PPP without having to pay someone to do it for me. RMBBRAVE i thought that you were above the managed funds level TUT TUT. macdunk

winner69
09-07-2006, 10:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus



Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.




'Trade Management' isn't part of the game Phaedrus

Quote from their prospectus -

“We sell only when the fundamentals of the company or industry have
changed significantly. We do not sell on the basis of share price movements (up or down) and the level of the market is irrelevant to our buying and selling decisions. We are long-term buy and hold investors – rather than chopping and changing, we believe that we can maximise returns by investing in great companies and sticking with them”.

PS .... sounds familiar doesn't it

rmbbrave
09-07-2006, 10:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

RMBBRAVE, Nothing wrong with that if you can pick when it will happen. The trouble with that is you cant. Managed funds are for people that think it is also complicated that its beyond them.
I to had a win last week with PPP without having to pay someone to do it for me. RMBBRAVE i thought that you were above the managed funds level TUT TUT. macdunk


I buy and sell for many different reasons. I bought KFL for the following reasons:

1 The SP has been going up.

2 The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share excluding performance fees as at 5 July 2006 was $1.8261 (fully diluted $1.4245). ie at 1.25 the shares were cheap.

3 This article appeared in the herald on the 5th of July http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=000AE29B-1F2D-14AB-A4EC83027AF1010E
As "news drives the SP" I figured it would send the SP up a bit.

4 They hold some great companies
The five largest portfolio holdings at 5 July 2006 are approximately as follows:

Ryman Healthcare - 17.7%
Mainfreight - 14.8%
Pumpkin Patch - 10.0%
Metlifecare -10.4%
Freightways - 9.8%

5 Sharemarkets around the world are going up.

rmbbrave
09-07-2006, 10:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

I to had a win last week with PPP without having to pay someone to do it for me.


As a long term holder of PPP I shared that win!

winner69
09-07-2006, 10:21 AM
One thing missing from your rant and rave Phaedrus was the cost of operating this fund

Management fees of 1.25% of gross assets every year plus when they have a good year (like this year) some 15% of the excess returns over the benchmark (some of it by issuing new shares)

For those who think that buying KFL is a 'cheap entry' into the stocks they like do the sums

For those who rely on Fishers judgement the dice is loaded in their favour

For those who treat it as atrading stock all this stuff doesn't matter does it

warthog
09-07-2006, 12:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.


Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.

duncan macgregor
09-07-2006, 12:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.


Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.

You are right as usual WARTHOG Its harder trading in large parcels you require more money for starters. Sorry about that mate i couldnt stop myself. macdunk

warthog
09-07-2006, 01:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.


Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.

You are right as usual WARTHOG Its harder trading in large parcels you require more money for starters. Sorry about that mate i couldnt stop myself. macdunk


Well done MacDunk. Try "The lack of liquidity on the NZX makes trading large holdings of shares harder than if liquidity was not an issue".

duncan macgregor
09-07-2006, 01:32 PM
quote:[i]Originally posted by warthog[/i

Well done MacDunk. Try "The lack of liquidity on the NZX makes trading large holdings of shares harder than if liquidity was not an issue".

You are wrong WARTHOG, it is easier trading with larger than normal ammounts. The difference being you buy the company not a few thousand shares, you do it completely differently.
We have the richest man in nz buying carter holt harvey about to split it up and sell it on as a prime example. It is the WARREN BUFFET followers that are the mugs, they dont know their place in the market and miss out big time. macdunk

Phaedrus
09-07-2006, 02:49 PM
"You seem to be condemning KFL because it is a managed fund." (rmbbrave)
Not at all. Managed funds have their place - I thought I made quite a sensible list of the characteristics and expectations of appropriate potential buyers. In my opinion, KFL fails to meet such expectations and I am criticising it for its mediocre performance.

"As a trader shouldn't all you be interested in is whether the SP is going up (or down)" Firstly, I do not consider myself a trader in NZ - my approach here is more that of an "active investor". While I would not buy a share that was going down or sell a share that was going up, there is a whole lot more to it than that. I even consider fundamentals!

KFL a good trading stock? Again I have to disagree. Even with a reliable and well proven system, trading KFL has produced far lower returns than simply Buying and Holding better stocks. Why bother? In addition it is very lightly traded - its average daily turnover is less than $14,000! Not a lot of room for trading there. (A good rule of thumb is never try and trade any stock where your stake is greater than 10% of the average daily turnover). If you want to trade, you would be better employed trading the constituent stocks of KFL, rather than the fund itself.

When Warthog says "...lack of liquidity .. makes trading large holdings of shares harder than if liquidity was not an issue". he is, of course, quite right. This is simply commonsense.

So, KFL is not good for those seeking above average capital gains.
It is not good for those wanting a reasonable dividend yield.
It is not good for traders.
Who is it good for?
Its managers!

rmbbrave
09-07-2006, 03:07 PM
Thanks very much Phaedrus,

Good points to consider.

warthog
09-07-2006, 05:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:[i]Originally posted by warthog[/i

Well done MacDunk. Try "The lack of liquidity on the NZX makes trading large holdings of shares harder than if liquidity was not an issue".

You are wrong WARTHOG, it is easier trading with larger than normal ammounts. The difference being you buy the company not a few thousand shares, you do it completely differently.
We have the richest man in nz buying carter holt harvey about to split it up and sell it on as a prime example. It is the WARREN BUFFET followers that are the mugs, they dont know their place in the market and miss out big time. macdunk


Interesting perspective MacDunk.

Try offloading 200k WHS in one go and see how you get on versus 10k WHS.

Hart doesn't deal in large parcels of shares - he deals in large chunks of companies.

Listen MacDunk, the warthog knows you're just being pedantic for ego-related reasons, but you could at least be a little more subtle about it. ;)

winner69
09-07-2006, 06:22 PM
quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.


Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.


What you are really saying warthog is that KFL end up paying over the odds when they buy because they are forced to push the price up .... and when they sell they end up getting less because they need to find some buyers

Seems like when they do pick a loser the loss the accentuated

warthog
09-07-2006, 08:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by warthog


quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus


Their trade management is surprisingly loose. On occasion thay have lost 50% of an individual investment before selling out. This fund is obviously not very actively managed and doesn't believe in the use of trailing stops.


Trading in large parcels of shares on NZX is not as easy as trading in small parcels of shares on NZX.


What you are really saying warthog is that KFL end up paying over the odds when they buy because they are forced to push the price up .... and when they sell they end up getting less because they need to find some buyers

Seems like when they do pick a loser the loss the accentuated


Pretty much.

Of course one can liquidate a sizable position - or indeed, build one up - over a period of time but this is nowhere near as preferable as having decent liquidity.

rmbbrave
09-07-2006, 09:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

"You seem to be condemning KFL because it is a managed fund." (rmbbrave)
In addition it is very lightly traded - its average daily turnover is less than $14,000! Not a lot of room for trading there. (A good rule of thumb is never try and trade any stock where your stake is greater than 10% of the average daily turnover).

Are you sure about that?

From the following graph it looks like KFL is trading about 100,000 a day (past 3 months).

http://portfolio.findata.co.nz/Quote.aspx?e=NZX&s=KFL

TUR on the other hand looks like it trades about 20,000 a day (past 3 months).

http://portfolio.findata.co.nz/Quote.aspx?e=NZX&s=TUR

Unless you've bought about 2000 shares of TUR it would seem that you're breaking you're own rule of thumb.

Phaedrus
09-07-2006, 10:13 PM
Aaaarrrrggghhhhhh!!!!! I missed the little x10 at the bottom of the Volume scale. You are quite right - 100,000/day not 10,000. That's $140,000/day not $14,000. Sorry about that - good on you for picking up my mistake. (It is still buttons though!)

Re liquidity "Rule of thumb" :-
(1) I was talking about trading. In NZ I am an investor - albeit an active one.
(2) This is a generally accepted ratio. It is not my rule.
(3) Even if it was, I reserve the right to break it!!!
(4) The idea is to avoid pushing the price around. It is possible to build up a bigger stake by purposely spreading your buying/selling over a period of time. You do not want to be the market-maker.

I run multiple indicators on any given stock, using these to incrementally step into or out of a position as each one is triggered. Such a system almost invariably spreads buying/selling activity out over several days/weeks or sometimes even longer. There are other perks too. It is not uncommon for an uptrend to falter and trigger some sell signals before strengthening again. In such cases I can console myself because I would have sold only part of my holding. It works well when buying too. You buy as each signal fires, but if the stock doesn't take off, you will not have tied up your full budgeted amount on what may well be a dud. In other words, you never get to be fully invested in (or fully out of) a stock unless/until all indicators have triggered.

Ttops
10-07-2006, 12:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

I bought it this week and am up 7% what's wrong with that!

RMBBRAVE, Nothing wrong with that if you can pick when it will happen. The trouble with that is you cant. Managed funds are for people that think it is also complicated that its beyond them.
I to had a win last week with PPP without having to pay someone to do it for me. RMBBRAVE i thought that you were above the managed funds level TUT TUT. macdunk


I buy and sell for many different reasons. I bought KFL for the following reasons:

1 The SP has been going up.

2 The unaudited net asset value per ordinary share excluding performance fees as at 5 July 2006 was $1.8261 (fully diluted $1.4245). ie at 1.25 the shares were cheap.

3 This article appeared in the herald on the 5th of July http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=000AE29B-1F2D-14AB-A4EC83027AF1010E
As "news drives the SP" I figured it would send the SP up a bit.

4 They hold some great companies
The five largest portfolio holdings at 5 July 2006 are approximately as follows:

Ryman Healthcare - 17.7%
Mainfreight - 14.8%
Pumpkin Patch - 10.0%
Metlifecare -10.4%
Freightways - 9.8%

5 Sharemarkets around the world are going up.


Well put RMG

Good to see some life in this thread at last. Have been busy with life and just got in.
Some quotes from wiser people:

"Read not to contradict and confute, nor to believe and take for granted, nor to find talk and discourse, but to weigh and consider."
There is something fundamentally wrong with Phaedrus and his TA. Perhaps MacDunk should have told us. He thinks we should all make up our own minds.

"A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." Really out of date that one RMG!

"There is no comfort in the truth. There are lies, damned lies and statistics." Thats better.

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence" mmm..

Let me illustrate some stats with my limited software, namely Direct Broking.
In the last six months KFL increased 41% NZSX midcap 28% and since IPO 46% NZSX Midcap 70% Clearly anyone buying more recently using TA and FA to help would still be holding KFL and KFLWA. Anyone holding from IPO has one KFLWA for each KFL share would have a cap gain of 76%. Not bad for Carmel. ;)

After D_Pick had forewarned you all of the KFL no-brainer opportunity in Dec 2005 Rym increased 71% You all were wise enough to pick Rym right? Carmel did! PT liked it and MFT. Both in KFL. Surely KFL would be worth a look. Did any of you?
Those that held their KFL and KFLWA haven't done too badly really even if it looked bad for a while.
Since IPO .97 KFL and 0 KFLWA
On Friday 7th July they were 1.34 and .37 a total of 1.71 and that is a 76% capital gain ignoring divs and future sp divs. not what the Phaedrus graph shows.
They should be corrected to include KFLWA if you want to choose IPO starting date or the conclusions drawn from them are irrelevant surely. Why not start at D_Pick thread date?

Secondly we should really talk about the future now anyway. The past is based on a different combination of shares. Now we have DGL and RAK What is wrong with its

shasta
11-07-2006, 01:39 PM
KFL up 5c to $1.37 today, & it's nice wee run continues!

This would have to be the narrowest gap between SP & NAV in a while, & perhaps the "premium" isn't too far off!

Ttops
11-07-2006, 03:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

KFL up 5c to $1.37 today, & it's nice wee run continues!

This would have to be the narrowest gap between SP & NAV in a while, & perhaps the "premium" isn't too far off!

Shasta
Your prediction was correct. It hit 1.40 today and the warrants hit 40c so clearly investors feel it has more in it. I am suitably impressed with your predictive abilities. Care to make another while you are hot.[^] You could be responsible for the run today!

Treetops

shasta
11-07-2006, 06:00 PM
Treetops, i doubt 20 + trades & over 150k volume was due to any post on Sharetrader from me or anyone else.

A few things may be spuring it on though, namely:

1. The quality of the shares they hold & doing well
2. The WAM money reducing debt, funding the share buyback & the special dividend
3. They have had plenty positive news of late
4. Technically its trending up & sellers are light
5. NZX capital return, & increased income from its portfolio, WAM special dividend etc
6. The strong performance of RAK & DGL post IPO

Really not too sure how high it will go before a retreat, but will lock in some profits as soon as my current sell price is hit.

Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount?

I am both an investor & trader, not a stock picker if you are looking for the next "hot stock" i cant help you!

Ttops
11-07-2006, 10:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, i doubt 20 + trades & over 150k volume was due to any post on Sharetrader from me or anyone else.

A few things may be spuring it on though, namely:

1. The quality of the shares they hold & doing well
2. The WAM money reducing debt, funding the share buyback & the special dividend
3. They have had plenty positive news of late
4. Technically its trending up & sellers are light
5. NZX capital return, & increased income from its portfolio, WAM special dividend etc
6. The strong performance of RAK & DGL post IPO

Really not too sure how high it will go before a retreat, but will lock in some profits as soon as my current sell price is hit.

Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount?

I am both an investor & trader, not a stock picker if you are looking for the next "hot stock" i cant help you!
Just joking Shasta. I leave that to Carmel and Ron!
Treetops - you opting for the shares in lieu to get the 3% discount? Yes. It was a no brainer when it was at a 15% discount but it now depends on how much you own and the discount to NAV closing. My last div was at 1.19 so I have increased 16% since then. In my case I'm still happy to leave it in but a big investor might be able to do better if it runs up to a premium and retraces. Its a cheap way to increase my shares by 2.5% About 37% of KFL shareholders do apparently.

Out of all your reasons, all which I agree with, I think that 4 is more important. Most Wam investors are just getting into action. Waited for the cheque to clear thought about it , sat on it and then started buying, saw it climbing and traders wanted to join in. I think some money is coming back from overseas and TEL is not a safe haven. I expect it to oscillate when the demand eases until the next surge depending on its component shares fortunes. It seems to go up in steps.

Why would you sell anyway on an uptrend, so thin selling saw the price rise rapidly? What is better out there for such a low risk? Who predicted the WAM take over? He who must not be named on this thread I mean Phaedrus, suggests the opposite. Why would you buy the thing! I expect profit taking again as obviously traders disagree with him but as long as people don't get bad news it will get support from mum's and dads who like me who like the low risk of a good basket of shares well being managed. If KFL traded that would lose KFL's tax status. It is not taxed on its capital gains on its key shares, something missed by some readers I'm sure.

Fisher Funds have more than 10% of RYM, MFT, MET, FRE, MHI Maybe they see another WAM in the pipeline. A pivotal stake in five key shares. :)
Go Carmel (and Ron) [^]

Treetops

shasta
12-07-2006, 07:22 PM
The fisher group blocking stakes are one of the main reasons i will continue to hold KFL, especially in this climate where a falling NZD coincides with the cashed up aussie predators hovering over some of our best performing, well managed companies.

All of those companies mentioned appear "well managed" & performing well & are likely on the aussies radar.

Im watching & looking at buying into RBC purely for the play on Tenon, by one of the parties already with a blocking stake in RBC.

I like having an interest in at least one company where a play is in progress or likely to occur

Ttops
12-07-2006, 10:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

The fisher group blocking stakes are one of the main reasons i will continue to hold KFL, especially in this climate where a falling NZD coincides with the cashed up aussie predators hovering over some of our best performing, well managed companies.

All of those companies mentioned appear "well managed" & performing well & are likely on the aussies radar.

Im watching & looking at buying into RBC purely for the play on Tenon, by one of the parties already with a blocking stake in RBC.

I like having an interest in at least one company where a play is in progress or likely to occur




Aptly put Shasta

I suspect the Diluted NAV release to be about 1.45 tomorrow. If so,then still at a discount at 1.39 And Another reason to hold:the warrants still have good demand at 40c

Treetops

Phaedrus
13-07-2006, 08:20 AM
Those of you lucky/wise enough to have steered clear of KFL for well over 2 years, and lucky/wise enough to have bought a few months ago, have done well. Good on you!

Managed funds provide a good vehicle for those that are unwilling or unable to make their own selection/timing investment decisions. Such people are not actively buying or selling KFL - they are in for the long haul. Since its inception, the overall performance of KFL has been mediocre.

shasta
13-07-2006, 12:12 PM
That largely describes me Phaedrus.

I am a recent KFL holder who has benefited from its recent run, though im not in this long term.

I simply saw an opportunity to buy at a discount at a time where things started to move upwards.

As soon as the fundamentals change or the charts suggest weakness, im out!

Does anyone have a link/reference to where i can find how many shares/or actual $ amount KFL have in there portfolio stocks.

I see approx 70% of SOE Convertible Note holders have accepted the $1.55 on offer.

The KFL 2006 Annual Report discloses a $6k unrealised loss. Im picking the offer is good enough to wipe out the loss, but how much do they have invested?

Thanks in advance

Ttops
14-07-2006, 12:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Those of you lucky/wise enough to have steered clear of KFL for well over 2 years, and lucky/wise enough to have bought a few months ago, have done well. Good on you!

Managed funds provide a good vehicle for those that are unwilling or unable to make their own selection/timing investment decisions. Such people are not actively buying or selling KFL - they are in for the long haul. Since its inception, the overall performance of KFL has been mediocre.



Thanks Phaedrus
I was lucky and wise. I simply used the charts on the KFL websites.
A new one today. http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/reports.htm

I watched it for two years including Salvus SAM That is definitely sub mediocre!

Actually think Shasta should be out. There is some definite weakness in the Warrants depth and is a signal for traders. Also some big/smart? money getting out this morning of KFL $600k. I would not be surprised that warrant holders are taking profits. Down up to 10% from its high of 40c yesterday The difference between the surge in KFL + KFLWA in Dec 2004 and this one in Feb2006 is the NAV justified it. I think you can see why I got in in December2005 as the gap between NAV and shareprice had increased. Worth a look even for a trader! ;)

As for me I'm watching and learning.
Treetops

Ttops
14-07-2006, 12:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

That largely describes me Phaedrus.

I am a recent KFL holder who has benefited from its recent run, though im not in this long term.

I simply saw an opportunity to buy at a discount at a time where things started to move upwards.

As soon as the fundamentals change or the charts suggest weakness, im out!

Does anyone have a link/reference to where i can find how many shares/or actual $ amount KFL have in there portfolio stocks.
I see approx 70% of SOE Convertible Note holders have accepted the $1.55 on offer.

The KFL 2006 Annual Report discloses a $6k unrealised loss. Im picking the offer is good enough to wipe out the loss, but how much do they have invested?

Thanks in advance



The KFL June report mentions RAK and DGL in the nursery which totals 14% at 30 June so can't be much more than 5 and 3% respectively. Less than I hoped.
Are you getting twitchy?

Treetops

Ttops
14-07-2006, 04:50 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by shasta

That largely describes me Phaedrus.

I am a recent KFL holder who has benefited from its recent run, though im not in this long term.

I simply saw an opportunity to buy at a discount at a time where things started to move upwards.

As soon as the fundamentals change or the charts suggest weakness, im out!

Does anyone have a link/reference to where i can find how many shares/or actual $ amount KFL have in there portfolio stocks.
I see approx 70% of SOE Convertible Note holders have accepted the $1.55 on offer.

The KFL 2006 Annual Report discloses a $6k unrealised loss. Im picking the offer is good enough to wipe out the loss, but how much do they have invested?

Thanks in advance



The KFL June report mentions RAK and DGL in the nursery which totals 14% at 30 June so can't be much more than 5 and 3% respectively. Less than I hoped.
Are you getting twitchy?

Treetops


KFL
14/07/2006
ALLOT

REL: 1410 HRS Kingfish Limited

ALLOT: KFL: Issue of 450,000 Ordinary Shares

ISSUE OF SECURITIES
The following information is provided in accordance with Listing Rule 7.12.1

a) Class of security: Ordinary Shares

ISIN: NZ KFLE0001S0

b) Number of ordinary shares issued: 450,000 (from
Treasury Stock)
c) Issue Price: $1.3615

d) Payment: Cash

e) Amount paid up: fully paid up

f) Percentage of the total class of securities 0.75%
issued ( after the issue)
g) Reason for the issue: Transfer of Treasury Stock

h) Specific authority for the issue: Directors
resolution and in accordance with Listing Rule 7.3.5
Fisher Funds Management Limited

i) Terms or conditions of the issue The shares rank pari
passu with existing ordinary shares

j) Total number of ordinary shares in 59,645,509
existence after the issue:

k) N/A

l) Date of issue: 14 July 2006

________________________
Robert L Challinor - Chairman
Kingfish Limited
End CA:00134071 For:KFL Type:ALLOT Time:2006-07-14:14:10:15

A positive sale afterall of treasury stock bought from sellers recently at 1.22 to 1.25 ? A profit of 11% if that is from the buyback. Who is the smart money? Surely they expect a discount and they got none and this could mean they see value in KFL vis a vis the possible takeovers in its key shares? Or is it too difficult to buy a big chunk in one go and not a lot of sellers.

Finished on low volume at 1.36 a 5.5% disc to dil NAV

Treetops

shasta
14-07-2006, 07:25 PM
Treetops, i dont have any warrants & am still in KFL at the moment, though looking for my next target.

Re SOE Convertible Notes, i just know KFL has some money coming from SOE, NZX & WAM, & will also be looking to park it somewhere.

Was trying to establish exactly how much they have available, thats all.

Ttops
14-07-2006, 09:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Treetops, i dont have any warrants & am still in KFL at the moment, though looking for my next target.

Re SOE Convertible Notes, i just know KFL has some money coming from SOE, NZX & WAM, & will also be looking to park it somewhere.

Was trying to establish exactly how much they have available, thats all.


Watch the warrants as they gave an early warning of the fall last time.
TT

Rif-Raf
14-07-2006, 10:03 PM
While one can invest in the underlying stocks without having to invest through a "managed fund", would all punters have made the same stock selections and purchased/sold at the same times and price.
Nobody is infallible, but these guys are have certainly got things right in the last 12 months...

Toddy
14-07-2006, 10:14 PM
I'm always weary of funds like KFL. Why, because if they are purchasing midcap stocks with limited liquidity then by definition the stock price is going to go up as they load up on the stock (unless there is a just as big seller out there). This would lead to a higher NAV.

shasta
15-07-2006, 09:21 PM
Well said Rif Raf, one of Warren Buffets key elements is to buy a $1's worth for less thus creating a margin of safety, that is what KFL was offering, & those of us that saw the opportunity got in & saw the SP increase & the difference in NAV decrease

shasta
27-07-2006, 11:51 AM
I see KFL have bought just over another million shares in DGL & now have 7.57% of the company.

Given that they now have approx $15m invested in this company, it must surely be a core holding & no longer consisted a Nursery holding.

Another $5m investment(approx) & we get to the magic 10.01%, which i'd imagine is the aim.

Am watching the SSH notices with interest.

Bobby_Fischer
27-07-2006, 12:03 PM
Shasta, I think yesterdays SSH relates to all holdings in DGL managed by Fisher Funds, meaning only a proportion are KFL assets.

shasta
27-07-2006, 01:09 PM
Thanks for that Bobby, quite correct!

Ttops
27-07-2006, 10:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

I see KFL have bought just over another million shares in DGL & now have 7.57% of the company.

Given that they now have approx $15m invested in this company, it must surely be a core holding & no longer consisted a Nursery holding.

Another $5m investment(approx) & we get to the magic 10.01%, which i'd imagine is the aim.

Am watching the SSH notices with interest.


So am I shasta ;)

Carmel is clearly buiding up both DGL and RAK and when both reach 10% in Fisher Funds its as good as being in KFL anyway. I suspect about 5% of KFL capital is in RAK and 3.5% is DGL now. Still about 6% discount to dil NAV I suspect the dil NAV to be 1.39-1.40 range and KFL hasn't bought back any shares since $1.25 on the 5th of July so fairly valued around the 1.32 mark imo. She still has plenty of cash to buy up RAK and DGL as they become undervalued but what is her self imposed limit for these nursery shares. 5%?

Treetops

shasta
28-07-2006, 06:00 PM
Not far off there Treetops, $1.41 as @ 26 July

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=134569

Special divvie of 2.5cps to be paid 4th August so closing at $1.32 ex divvie isn't too bad at all!

Ttops
16-08-2006, 11:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Not far off there Treetops, $1.41 as @ 26 July

http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=134569

Special divvie of 2.5cps to be paid 4th August so closing at $1.32 ex divvie isn't too bad at all!

I'll go for 1.40 disc to NAV at 16th Aug and 7% discount at sp 1.30
Pretty stable around the 6%[u]+</u>1 discount now.
Suspect RAK now about 5.5% of KFL with the 1% increase. Now at 7.57% owned by Fisher funds.
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=iLdiEwgTFhhzo2e7-zNGiD&E=NZSE&S=RAK&N=135486

Quite a few KFL shares in this list.SciTech Seminar Presentations

Comvita
Livestock Improvement Corporation
Connexionz
Wool Equities
Genesis
VTL Group
ICP Bio
Windflow
Scott Technology
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Renaissance
Cadmus
Software of Excellence
Finzsoft
Provenco
A2 Corporation
Rakon


http://www.nzx.com/nzxmarket/aug_seminars
Treetops
You may get your GPG soon Shasta :)

shasta
17-08-2006, 06:55 AM
I may however there are plenty of options around at the moment, but still in KFL & happy to be.

rmbbrave
01-11-2006, 06:01 PM
Kingfish interim profit up 16 per cent

3.40pm Wednesday November 1, 2006


A payout from the sale of Waste Management has helped lift investment company Kingfish's interim profit by 16 per cent .

Net profit was $18.4m, up 514 per cent, compared to $2.99m in the previous corresponding period at the end of September 2005.

Total revenue was $21.3m, up 493 per cent ($3.59m).

The surplus included $13 million of unrealised gains on investments held, and about $6 million from realised gains on investments sold.

No interim dividend was declared but the company said a final dividend would be considered after the annual result to March.

Portfolio manager Fisher Funds said the Kingfish portfolio had flourished during the period despite a relatively flat local sharemarket and limited portfolio activity.

It said that "were it not for a bout of corporate activity and a couple of successful IPOs, the performance of the New Zealand sharemarket over the past six months would have been as bad as, or even worse than commentators have been predicting".

The first half of the period had been characterised by a 10 percet fall in Telecom's share price to a 13-year low as a result of regulation and fears of regulatory creep in other sectors, hitting Sky TV and Vector hard also.

However, Fisher Funds said Telecom had never been part of its portfolios, which favoured growth companies, and this preference had paid off.

Hawkish comments from the Reserve Bank and continued debate about regulatory authorities had made the second quarter little better, but corporate activity in The Warehouse had provided a distraction.

The reporting season had provided few real disappointments, and a handful of very good profit results including Mainfreight, Delegat's and Ryman Healthcare.

Best share price performers had been Ryman Healthcare (up 34 per cent), Metlifecare (up 47 per cent), Mainfreight (up 40 per cent) and Rakon (up 113 per cent, over its issue price).

Fisher Funds said its view of the world had not changed over the past six months.

"We know that operating conditions are more difficult for New Zealand companies than they were at this time last year...

"Rather than us second-guessing interest rate and currency trends, and how they might impact our companies, we focus on communicating with our companies to build a deep understanding of their strategies and management approach."

Shares in Kingfish shares traded between $1.11 and $1.40 during the period. They were unmoved today at $1.30.

Earnings per share were 31c per share, up from 5c per share at the end of the first half last year.

Operating expenses of $2.9 million represented 2.6 per cent of total assets, in line with the budget.

Kingfish's net asset value per share rose 16 per cent during the six months from $1.58m to $1.84m, after the deduction of Treasury Stock and a performance fee of $1.67m to Fisher Funds for exceeding the benchmark rate of 7 per cent.

At September 30, Kingfish had bought back 2.97m shares and 3.2m warrants under a buyback programme. Just over 2 million shares were reissued, and its buyback programme would continue, the company said.

- NZPA

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10408675

shasta
01-11-2006, 06:24 PM
P/E ratio on $1.30 SP with earnings of 31cps = approx 4 = cheap cheap cheap.

Am predicting a final dividend of 4.5 - 5.0cps.

The buyback should see the SP slowly heading north, any happy warrant holders out there looking to convert?

Disc: Hold KFL

Rif-Raf
01-11-2006, 07:23 PM
They are cheap, but not because of the PE which is meaningless. In any event the results are only for the interim so applying that logic you would need to double earnings and get a PE of 2!

I note the diluted NAV is $1.44 versus todays SP of $1.30 a 10% discount while I note BRM which is still just a cash box is trading at a 10% premium.

Scrunch
01-11-2006, 09:37 PM
The thing that could would really get Kingfisher share price humming given the recent listing of BRM is to ease up its investing rules. If it say allowed they relaxed the criteria so that 33% of investments could be in Australia (possibly with justifications around how CER with Australia are making it increasingly one market), then this would increase the range of investment candidates and possibly narrow the gap to NTA that exists at present.

Just a thought anyway

Deev8
02-11-2006, 10:41 AM
quote:Originally posted by Rif-Raf

They are cheap ... I note the diluted NAV is $1.44 versus todays SP of $1.30 a 10% discount ...

Not as cheap as they were a while ago of course. Today's 10% discount is a significant reduction from the 19% discount they were trading at last December.

shasta
03-11-2006, 11:12 AM
KFL up to $1.36, & it seems CVT's sp rise has helped increase the NAV.

Not much on the sell side, so will we see $1.40+ again soon?

KJ
03-11-2006, 02:20 PM
Yes-DGL & 6mth report probably helping too-I like the warrants.

Ttops
17-11-2006, 12:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

KFL up to $1.36, & it seems CVT's sp rise has helped increase the NAV.

Not much on the sell side, so will we see $1.40+ again soon?

Hi Shasta
Good prediction again!:D:D They have so many good shares you could hardly be wrong for long. Rym and Mft Fre just for starters. Guess they will have to sell some of their Rym unfortunately to stay under the 20%?
1.42 currently
TT;)

KJ
18-11-2006, 09:16 AM
I think that they hold only 10.86% of RYM so no need to sell.

COLIN
18-11-2006, 09:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by KJ

I think that they hold only 10.86% of RYM so no need to sell.

I assume that what Treetops is referring to would be KFL's own investment guidelines, i.e. I think they stipulate no more than 20% of [u]KFL's</u> funds in any one company?

Ttops
19-11-2006, 11:08 AM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN


quote:Originally posted by KJ

I think that they hold only 10.86% of RYM so no need to sell.

I assume that what Treetops is referring to would be KFL's own investment guidelines, i.e. I think they stipulate no more than 20% of [u]KFL's</u> funds in any one company?

Hi Colin and KJ
You are correct Colin but I think they can retain the blocking stake KJ by transferring the surplus back to Fisher Funds.I have noticed it in the past with no change in the Rym stake. It does mean that the potential of Rym to [u]KFL</u> is capped but each time they transfer shares they make a real profit and presumably not taxed on capital gains. It maintains diversity I guess but in this case disappointing. Does anyone know if they can break the rule or would it require shareholders to agree and would it then affect the special tax situation. [?] No apparent increase in Rakon by FF as well but the sp increasing as is DGL. Anyone know if Carmel is buying?
TT

shasta
20-11-2006, 11:26 AM
Any change in shareholding of +/- 1% is required by the NZX once you are a SSH (5%+).

Watch for the SSH notices on the NZX!

COLIN
22-11-2006, 10:59 AM
Carmel strikes another win on MFT! Even the Carmel-sceptics must now be grudgingly accepting that she and her team have a happy knack of choosing winners. Sure, they will always have a few duds in their portfolios but I'm quite happy to be in her tent.

KJ
22-11-2006, 11:56 AM
Must admit that I have followed her with some of my own investments-RYM,DGL,KFLWA-and have not been disappointed.IMO they do it pretty well.

Ttops
22-11-2006, 06:09 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ

Must admit that I have followed her with some of my own investments-RYM,DGL,KFLWA-and have not been disappointed.IMO they do it pretty well.

I followed PT. ;);) PT has RYM and MFT :D
I have to to agree with Colin. You can't help thinking some sceptics are about to accuse Carmel of ramping again. KFL must be about to crash and melt down.;)
TT

Snow Leopard
22-11-2006, 07:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by KJ

Must admit that I have followed her with some of my own investments-RYM,DGL,KFLWA-and have not been disappointed.IMO they do it pretty well.

I followed PT. ;);) PT has RYM and MFT :D
I have to to agree with Colin. You can't help thinking some sceptics are about to accuse Carmel of ramping again. KFL must be about to crash and melt down.;)
TT

and I followed Carmel :D

rmbbrave
23-11-2006, 02:11 PM
An investor with heart and sole
22 November 2006

Ace fund manager Carmel Fisher loves her job and tells Gareth Vaughan why.


For Carmel Fisher, Fisher Funds Management managing director, investing is not rocket science.

It is more about intuition and wearing out shoes.

She started Fisher Funds from her home in Devonport, Auckland, in 1998 with $17 million and one client. Her first employee was her husband. Today Fisher Funds has 13 staff managing more than $750 million for 15,000 clients from Takapuna offices with sweeping views of Rangitoto Island.

Fisher Funds is renowned for taking chunky stakes in growing companies and being long-term a shareholder. Jeweller Michael Hill International, in which Ms Fisher has invested since 1991, is a prime example.

"Because I liked shopping it was a concept that I could really relate to and so I bought a small shareholding. Then everything the company said they were going to do they delivered on over the next five years."

Today Fisher Funds owns 12.54 per cent of Michael Hill.

Then there is children's clothing retailer Pumpkin Patch, of which Fisher Funds holds 9.4 per cent.

"When Pumpkin Patch first came to the market, I had been buying Pumpkin Patch clothes for my girls for years. So it was easy," Ms Fisher, a mother of two daughters, aged eight and five, recalls. "I understood the story. I understood what made Pumpkin Patch clothes different and arguably better than other children's wear."

After an "ordinary" but "good" childhood in Lower Hutt, she completed a Bachelor of Commerce and Administration at Victoria University and got a job as a client adviser at sharebroking firm Francis Allison Symes as a 20-year-old in 1984. Though there were not many women in senior roles then, there were plenty working as client advisers.

"They have all the right attributes. They have empathy, and women generally make quite good investors," she says. "They're more patient, they're more loyal. They tend to hold on to investments, whereas men tend to trade a bit more so transaction costs eat away at the returns."

She was set to follow her father into accountancy. However, a presentation from a sharebroker in her final university year changed that. "It opened up a whole new world for me. It just seemed so exciting."

After university she wrote to sharebrokers and landed the Francis Allison Symes job. A stint at Prudential followed, where she set up an investment fund focused on small companies. It produced an 83 per cent return in year one.

"As a fund manager you actually get to put your money where your mouth is. So if you get it right you get credit for it.

"I think that is great. Nobody can ever take away your track record of picking great companies and I think that's very satisfying."

In 1994 she moved to Auckland to head up insurer Sovereign's funds management operation. Then in 1998, after giving birth to her first daughter, she set up Fisher Funds.

Husband Hugh quit his job of 18 years at Telecom to handle administrative issues for the new firm. After hiring a nanny, and with $17 million to manage for Sovereign, Fisher Funds was born.

"It actually helped in the early years of Fisher Funds to have both of us dependent on the success of the company," she says. "We didn't have any external income, so we had to perform and grow the fund."

The best thing about being her own boss is choosing who she works with, the flexible hours and making quick decisions. "And if we're successful then we benefit from that financially."

Investing is about intuition and deciding whether you believe a company's story and whether management has the ability to deliver on promises, she says. Fisher Funds follows an investment process called STEEPP. Each letter covers an investment criteria. S is for the strength of the business, T is track record, the first E is for earnings history, the second for earnings forecasts, the first P for people and the second for price.

"Because we're growth investors, not value investors, we're less sens

shasta
23-11-2006, 09:39 PM
KFL ticking along nicely & closing at an all time high of $1.50.

Treetops - you hanging in there still?

Love or hate her Carmel's results do stack up!

Ttops
24-11-2006, 02:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

KFL ticking along nicely & closing at an all time high of $1.50.

Treetops - you hanging in there still?

Love or hate her Carmel's results do stack up!

Hi Shasta
Yes still in but was tempted. ;) There must be some trader's genes in me somewhere. I can't see anything better to go to for a conservative small investor like me. Maybe KFL has caught the BRM disease. Looking to be at a premium to disc. NAV. Does someone know something we don't. Carmel buying KFLWA recently seemed to suggest she does. So I'm hanging in.
TT

COLIN
27-01-2007, 10:27 AM
I must admit to having had some doubts about the wisdom of Carmel hanging onto MHI in the current supposedly difficult climate for retailers, particularly those in the area of discretionary spending but, dash it all, she appears to have demonstrated her astuteness yet once again.
And most of her other investments seem to be going well, overall. And the combined prices of the heads and warrants are still at a discount to NAV - unlike the crazy BRM/BRMWA situation.

KJ
27-01-2007, 01:02 PM
I guess,being a large shareholder, that they have access to much better information on how the coy is trading,than the rest of us.

Caesius
27-01-2007, 04:33 PM
I remember my Physics teacher telling me that KFL will be heading north soon. This was when they were trading at 90c.

Should have listened :D

Rif-Raf
01-02-2007, 07:27 PM
I've mentioned before, but it still bemuses me how KFL just continues to march on delivering great incremental results (latest NAV 2.12 undiluted,1.58 diluted) yet their SP trails behind at a discount or around 4% diluted and 30% undiluted, yet BRM its unproven sister company which currently hasn't done anything yet trades at a premium of 11-12% diluted/undiluted.

By buying into KFL you will receive a 4% discount to the underlying value, yet receive 30% more value in dividends than if you had held the shares direct. A small sacrifice is paid by way of performance fees from the manager however probably a small price to pay if they if they are able to time acquisition/exits than the average investor which probably more than makes up for it.

Contrast to BRM, the contrast is incredible considering they are the same people.

Only logical explanation is some peceive Aussie has greener pastures.

It's good to have a few of these in your portfolio as they dont require much effort to manage.

gisborne_gold
02-02-2007, 12:02 PM
100% with you on your points Rif-Raf. I can't see any sense in it. Either there's something we don't know about behind the discrepancy, or it's a market anomaly and represents a trading opportunity.

zyreon
02-02-2007, 12:41 PM
I think there's still an intense skepticism about fisher funds, the whole tall poppy thing.
I know a few people who hold very strong, if misguided opinions about KFL.

Rif-Raf
02-02-2007, 01:05 PM
quote:Originally posted by zyreon

I think there's still an intense skepticism about fisher funds, the whole tall poppy thing.
I know a few people who hold very strong, if misguided opinions about KFL.

But if that was the reason, then makes no sense why BRM would be valued as it is.
GG, I dont think there can ever really be much behind the scenes as ultimately they are holding a portfolio of listed companies and the share prices of each investment will be priced accordingly. In fact that's one of the things that I like about KFL, you get exposure to a few good second tier stocks without havng to put too much effort into understanding on in as much depth as you may otherwise desire. As to timing of entry/exit, they seem to be pretty good at making the right calls i.e WAM, DGL,RAK

ratkin
02-02-2007, 05:52 PM
The sceptisism is due to the fund only operating in bull market conditions. They have chosen reasonable stocks as you would expect and have done well due to benign market conditions.
The test will be how they perform once the bear arrives

winner69
06-02-2007, 07:24 PM
quote:Originally posted by ratkin

The sceptisism is due to the fund only operating in bull market conditions. They have chosen reasonable stocks as you would expect and have done well due to benign market conditions.
The test will be how they perform once the bear arrives


Footsie also has the same sentiments, like what he said on the Ryman thread (quote) my advice........ If you like RYM wait......... guarantee that within the next 12 months you will be able to buy it 20-30% cheaper that where it is now... (end quote)

When looking at the KFL portfolio 80% of their holding is in 6 stocks .... all except MFT with a PE well in excess of 20 (quick scan of DB figures).

Even in a bear market all these companies might still perform very well ........ but PEs will fall to more reasonable levels with the subsequent fall in shareprices .... anf fall in KFL value

Additionally if the economy goes (and/or property prices fall) through tough times one needs to bear in mind that they are heavily exposed fo freight companies, aged care and retail.

Carmel and her team have done a good job over the last few years but Mick100 sentiments have some merit.

Can't criticise her stock selection ... her team have invested in 3 of my current holdings

winner69
07-02-2007, 06:09 AM
If you take into account performance fees KFL trading at a 15% premium to true worth

Assuming the intent of the fund is to continue for some time KFL is actually worth 131 .... NAV at 161 less NPV of future management fees of say 30 cents

And that is not taking account the dilution that occurs when they take part of their performance fees in new shares

kura
07-02-2007, 08:47 AM
Winner, how do you roughly justify your 30 cents ?
In the past I've felt a 10% discount for NPV of future management fees was "about right" for other funds I've looked at.

Though theoretically speaking, if you had an extremely capable manager (say Warren Buffet or similar) one could argue that there should be no discounting for future management fees, as the higher expected future returns would outweigh the future fees.

Also, don't KFL have options ? wouldn't you need to take these into account when setting a fair value for KFL ? (ie assuming all options will be excercised, adding excercise price to pot, then dividing by increased number of shares)

winner69
07-02-2007, 10:55 AM
Kura ... from KFL's last announcement performance fees etc are 5.0 cents per share (their numbers were $2.1722 NAV and after fees $2.1222) .... after allowing for the options reduces to 2.6 cents.

Discounting these fees into the future gives me about 30 cents (diluted)

Might be the wrong way of looking at it but that is how I see it anyway

You say 'I've felt a 10% discount for NPV of future management fees' .... maybe KFL fees are on the high side .... after all the benchmark they use to calculate the outperformance component is pretty low

kura
07-02-2007, 11:36 AM
Fair enough !

Rif-Raf
08-02-2007, 12:41 PM
quote:Originally posted by winner69

Kura ... from KFL's last announcement performance fees etc are 5.0 cents per share (their numbers were $2.1722 NAV and after fees $2.1222) .... after allowing for the options reduces to 2.6 cents.

Discounting these fees into the future gives me about 30 cents (diluted)

Might be the wrong way of looking at it but that is how I see it anyway

You say 'I've felt a 10% discount for NPV of future management fees' .... maybe KFL fees are on the high side .... after all the benchmark they use to calculate the outperformance component is pretty low




I think the discount you are applying is rather harsh. KFL receive a management fee of between 1.25% of if they underperform can be as low as 0.75%. They also receive a performance fee of 15% of excess returns over a benchmark which is 90 day rate plus 7%.
The management fees have been high because they achieved 36% in last year. Applying W69's discount of 10% due to the performance fees implies they will continue to rate stellar returns.
Another point which I believe you should not overlook is that you are buying the dividend streams in the undelying assets for a heavy discount i.e you are receiving dividends on $2.12 worth of shares that you are only paying $1.50 odd for - probably cancels out the 1.25% management fee.
To me any discount (or premium) applied depends on how good the manager is - pretty good track record so far.

Ttops
08-02-2007, 11:08 PM
You are right imo Rif Raf.
I ignore the NAV and always look at the diluted NAV.
The effect of those warrants gets evermore significant and confusing the higher the NAV.
If you compare the diluted NAV 1.6083 with the same thing but excluding performance fees 1.6370 in the weekly valuation 7 Feb the effect is nowhere near 30% but what is NPV stand for so I may be up a tree here? Should mangement fees be added to performance fees? Its nearer 1.75% over the last year if I am correct or 2.75% at worst. So I estimate Carmel makes .75% in a bad year and about 1.75% in a good year averaging around 1.25%/annum for Carmel's good management. Seems fair to me. But I'm sure the experts don't need her. I do.Made 60% in one year. Now brokers fees are getting dearer it worries me less having one share to sell not six good ones. That covers the management fees imo over a longer term. So the discount is about 4%. If BRM is worth its sp then this will reduce as it will inspire confidence in her share selection skills. The question is: when/if the market turns will KFL hold its value better or worse than its component shares? I hope better. [^] I've been watching for a trend change and it hasn't happened yet imo.

winner69
09-02-2007, 06:29 AM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

You are right imo Rif Raf.

If you compare the diluted NAV 1.6083 with the same thing but excluding performance fees 1.6370 in the weekly valuation 7 Feb the effect is nowhere near 30% but what is NPV stand for so I may be up a tree here?



The thing is that Fisher take a management fee every year ... into the future

Look at it this way .... assume the NAV doesn't change over the next 10 years .... Fisher take their fees every year .... the NPV (the value in todays dollars) of these fees for the future i say is about 30 cents (20% of NAV) of todays NAV .... (of course if the NAV stayed the same for 10 years the fees would not be so high as they are today)

But this type of fund is what you are after isn't it treetops so as you say the cost is acceptable to you

Hope it keeps adding value

Ttops
09-02-2007, 11:34 AM
quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Treetops

You are right imo Rif Raf.

If you compare the diluted NAV 1.6083 with the same thing but excluding performance fees 1.6370 in the weekly valuation 7 Feb the effect is nowhere near 30% but what is NPV stand for so I may be up a tree here?



The thing is that Fisher take a management fee every year ... into the future

Look at it this way .... assume the NAV doesn't change over the next 10 years .... Fisher take their fees every year .... the NPV (the value in todays dollars) of these fees for the future i say is about 30 cents (20% of NAV) of todays NAV .... (of course if the NAV stayed the same for 10 years the fees would not be so high as they are today)

But this type of fund is what you are after isn't it treetops so as you say the cost is acceptable to you

Hope it keeps adding value



If the the dil NAV begins to level it will be time to exit for sure. If its a small mangement fee and the dil NAV climbs at at an acceptable rate I'm still in. I like Phaedrus and his graphs to help exit. I admit I'm unsure about why the mangement costs /year shouldn't be compared with the increase in diluted NAV/year. Why calculate into the future and how many years have you calculated makes 30c?

winner69
09-02-2007, 12:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Why calculate into the future .....


..... because no matter happens to the underlying investment Fisher takes their management fee ... each and every year

COLIN
23-02-2007, 08:14 PM
How does she do it?! Yet another day of good results for Carmel and her merry band. MHI good result surprises me. CVT revenue up, and future NPAT should benefit from "backfilling" expenditure.
And RYM has bounced back, with BNB interest. And RAK, MET, MFT, FRE, PPL, DGL etc., looking good.
Wish I had a portfolio that contained more of such winners.

Ttops
23-02-2007, 09:58 PM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN

How does she do it?! Yet another day of good results for Carmel and her merry band. MHI good result surprises me. CVT revenue up, and future NPAT should benefit from "backfilling" expenditure.
And RYM has bounced back, with BNB interest. And RAK, MET, MFT, FRE, PPL, DGL etc., looking good.
Wish I had a portfolio that contained more of such winners.


Precisely why I bought some more today. Actually KFL looked oversold at 1.53 Dil NAV at 1.63 imo and I had the opportunity to sell some of my Cen shares and rebalance. I couldn't choose which to go with. Rak or Rym? so went with the smorgasborg. The underlying investments have good prospects. Which will be the next buy out.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/3970989a13.html

Ttops
28-02-2007, 08:25 PM
KFL's component shares dropped only 0.5% on weighted average today compared to KFL dropping 2.6% increasing the discount to NAV. Strength in Rym counteracting MFT FRE and PPL falls. Thats Good buying if this discount increases imo and it should recover when the NAV report comes out tomorrow. Compare that with BRM which fell 4.6% component shares unknown.

Toddy
28-02-2007, 08:48 PM
I sold the rest of my warrants today. I could not stand the heat holding Kingfisher. The money will go towards the new orchard that I have bought that should pay off when the currency heads south.

Ttops
28-02-2007, 10:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by Toddy

I sold the rest of my warrants today. I could not stand the heat holding Kingfisher. The money will go towards the new orchard that I have bought that should pay off when the currency heads south.

Extremely volatile today so don't blame you but they recovered quite well down over 20% initially. The SAMWA holders are feeling even more heat with the SAM head shares worth only $1 so pointless redeeming when the warrants are at 14.2c You had a good run and now enjoy the fruits of a wise investment. Many will follow you I guess in the current climate of uncertainty.

winner69
06-03-2007, 06:15 PM
Reading Warren Buffetts letter to berkshire hathaway shareholders ..... he would obviously disapprove of what Carmel is doing

Not picking specifically on Carmel ..... a whole industry of them

Tim
06-03-2007, 08:06 PM
What does he say winner69

winner69
06-03-2007, 08:22 PM
Page 20 when he starts on about the Gotrocks family .... acontinuation of last years tirade

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2006ltr.pdf

Also interesting comments about newspapers (as an investment) .... like future ain;t too good

.... and he made $100M on the $NZ as well

Ttops
05-04-2007, 09:28 PM
Anyone else noticed the NAV reporting error. KFL undiluted NAV should read 2.180 not 2.108. I base this on the increase in diluted NAV to 1.63 so the undiluted NAV can't decrease. Am I correct?
http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/announcements.asp

Not corrected yet.

oast
10-04-2007, 04:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Anyone else noticed the NAV reporting error. KFL undiluted NAV should read 2.180 not 2.108. I base this on the increase in diluted NAV to 1.63 so the undiluted NAV can't decrease. Am I correct?
http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/announcements.asp

Not corrected yet.


The $2.108 value could be correct, because of the 31/3/07 exercise of some of the KFLWA warrants which would have changed the dilution "factor" materially.

COLIN
10-04-2007, 07:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by oast


quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Anyone else noticed the NAV reporting error. KFL undiluted NAV should read 2.180 not 2.108. I base this on the increase in diluted NAV to 1.63 so the undiluted NAV can't decrease. Am I correct?
http://www.kingfishlimited.co.nz/announcements.asp

Not corrected yet.


The $2.108 value could be correct, because of the 31/3/07 exercise of some of the KFLWA warrants which would have changed the dilution "factor" materially.


I see that over 5 million warrants were exercised, increasing the total shares on issue by 7.8%

gisborne_gold
11-04-2007, 10:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Anyone else noticed the NAV reporting error. KFL undiluted NAV should read 2.180 not 2.108. I base this on the increase in diluted NAV to 1.63 so the undiluted NAV can't decrease. Am I correct?


Using the new ratio of warrants outstanding to shares on issue, by my calculation an NTA per share of $2.1089 corresponds to a diluted NTA per share $1.635. This doesn't quite agree the 1.6309 in the KFL announcement but it's possible they have done their calculation taking into account share buybacks and other adjustments which they haven't yet made public.

frosty0612
11-04-2007, 12:03 PM
Given KFL are buying back shares and warrants at about current prices, would it be fair to say there is very little down side risk to buying into this company?

gisborne_gold
11-04-2007, 01:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by frosty0612

Given KFL are buying back shares and warrants at about current prices, would it be fair to say there is very little down side risk to buying into this company?

There is most definitely downside risk. It's quite easy to understand in the case of KFL because they publish their market holdings; if the value of those holdings decreases, the KFL NTA decreases, and the KFL share price would be expected to decrease accordingly.

The most you should expect from a buyback programme, I suggest, is to narrow the share price discount to NTA per share.

baxter
11-04-2007, 04:08 PM
Frosty...I have been with Carmel Fisher since 1998 when she only had the unit trust growth fund. She kept that positive right through the prolonged downturn and was generally rated the leading unit trust. My concern is that she is now attracting so much cash and becoming such a major enterprise. Can she continue to influence her rapidly expanding empire to maintain the same results she obtained as a boutique manager.

living2
12-04-2007, 01:56 PM
IMO opinion this has low downside risk because KFL will support the underlying share price by buying on any weakness in them

Ttops
19-04-2007, 11:15 AM
Thanks everyone re the NAV. I should read the fine print and ignore the NAV as it can be misleading and just use the dil NAV.[:I] Just back from a tramp around Waikaremoana. Very low lake levels and only used my parka to stay warm. Any more draw off by power station at Tuai would make the lake look very different. Inlets are almost dry and Hut water tanks at a dribble.

Ttops
01-05-2007, 11:51 PM
Good to see Carmel being paid her performance fee in KFL shares at $2.15/share when the current price is $1.54 BRM still commands a 4% premium to dil NAV while KFL a discount of 6% after her performance fee.

COLIN
02-05-2007, 08:55 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Good to see Carmel being paid her performance fee in KFL shares at $2.15/share when the current price is $1.54.

Yes. I noted that, and was impressed by this imaginative use of shares which had been gradually bought up on market, at prices significantly below.

Ttops
04-05-2007, 04:53 PM
KFL is largely deliberately ignored/misunderstood by the brokers? On TV1 Business this am the broker commenting reckoned that at 1.52 no change yesterday, KFL's good profit reported early yesterday pm had largely been predicted by the market. Up 5 cents 3.% to 1.57 today. Given a few hours warning you can easily beat the market on this share as they take as long to make up their minds. Perhaps the 3.5c div appeals on June 1? No significant change in NAV today either.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=KFL&E=NZSE&N=147177

Ttops
07-05-2007, 08:33 PM
Fisher Funds now have 9.7% of DGL and "the market" is still catching up with the news. KFL closed up 3c at $1.60 on good turnover.
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=DGL&E=NZSE&N=147266

manxman
08-05-2007, 04:54 AM
Fisher Funds Management is not quite the same as KFL. The DGL purchase appears to be for some of Carmel's other interests, and may not affect KFL.

Treetops you are right in that the brokers are slow on KFL. There is plenty of time to act while they are still sauntering down to the pub to analyse each other. This may be one of Carmel's secrets. Fisher Funds can pick up quite substantial stakes while the middle aged white male establishment is still tying its shoelaces. Enjoy - and profit from it.

Ttops
08-05-2007, 04:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by manxman


Fisher Funds Management is not quite the same as KFL. The DGL purchase appears to be for some of Carmel's other interests, and may not affect KFL.

Quite correct Manxman. But same manager. FF buys then Carmel distributes as she feels fit to her separate funds one of which is KFL.

But the point I was making is the 10% control is near and Carmel controls both KFL and FF's share so it means she can exact the best outcome for KFL as well as shown in the attempted T/O on Metlifecare. Anyone wanting to T/O DGL will find Carmel resistant unless the price is right to the full benefit of KFL and any other direct shareholders in DGL. Whether FF increases the small component in KFL's share of DGL which has regularly happened you are right. It may not happen at all but I expect it will though.

I don't get any broker advice but feel the recent rapid 10c increase may be due to someone advocating it. Anyone know of anyone pushing KFL? Apart from me of course. ;)

Ttops
22-05-2007, 10:19 PM
KFL got a bit ahead of itself and reached 0% disc to dil. NAV at 1.65 before correcting today to 1.59 BRM is at a 7% premium and way ahead of itself. Will it correct as well.

Ttops
23-05-2007, 04:24 PM
Up again today to 1.66 at close! Record high.:D I presume this is based on the delayed reaction to the good RYM and RAK reports and the 3.5c div is still beckoning. Still think the NAV will be around 1.68-1.69 so is at a 1% discount at 1.66. Still better value than BRM imo. ;) I finally put caution to the wind and bought 10k warrants at 57c the other day. :)

If the RAK SLG and RYM surge continues expect people to follow into KFL but personally I think it is simply a good steady share for the long run small investor and I top up on corrections. I found one broker who recommends KFL. Anyone seen any others?
von Dadelszen & Co in his March newsletter. http://www.vond.co.nz/ "This is our preferred exposure to small capped stocks. Carmel Fisher has an impressive track record of value stock selection." see p1 of newsletter under Best NZ equity picks for 2007

Ttops
24-05-2007, 08:31 PM
Rakon now 10% of KFL :) dil. Nav 1.6773 Closed at 1.65 today. Wonder how big the SLG component is?

lakeside
24-05-2007, 09:56 PM
And $1 BRM is now worth over $1.50.

tim23
25-05-2007, 07:33 PM
I think you mean $1.15? the float has been great $1.15 plus 1/2 x .32 for the warrants so $1.31 over the $1.00 issue price. Mind you if they revert to the discount that applies to SAM & KFL then there is room for price correction.

lakeside
26-05-2007, 07:56 AM
Sorry Tim you are right, I topped up with BRM warrants so I was 1 to 1.
I think the KFL warrants at 14 c were the best.

Ttops
31-05-2007, 11:01 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by sniper

Accidents waiting to happen - that's how I would describe some of KFL's investments and investment strategy. TUA, RBD, WHS, BGR, KID, POD etc make for a parade of uglies invested in by KFL. What else lurks in the portfolio? That's why the share will always trade at a discount.

KFL was at the end of February invested in CTL, CVT, FRE, MFT, MHI, NZX, PPL, RYM, SOE, WAM according to the Fisher Funds Newsletter.

So now is your chance to prove that you are more than a backward looking whinger and tell us which of these are the accidents waiting to happen and why.



Could be NZX, could be CTL, could be SOE, could be FRE. History says that there's a strong likelihood that one or more will blow up in the next 12 months.

Would you invest in a company when it has that kind of track record? [^]


Yes I would invest in KFL :D:D:D Did you metamorphose Sniper. Could someone say who he snipes as now or has history quietly proved him wrong RIP ;)

KFL barely trades at a discount now. Congrats once more to D Pick :)

KFL and KFLWA suit me fine.
TT

Ttops
12-06-2007, 02:48 PM
Predict the dil NAV will come out at around 1.60 so at a 6% discount at current price of 1.50 Clearly the PPL RAK overreaction has made people desert. Since these are now recovering KFL is better buying than it has been for ages but it is still currently on its low. A bargain for the brave?

tim23
13-06-2007, 05:25 PM
Good shopping but I prefer Salvus (SAM).

Ttops
13-06-2007, 08:22 PM
Tim23
Sam has limited appeal imo due to very low turnover but has a couple of good shares in common with KFL (MFT RAK) and a healthy discount to dil NAV too as under the radar as well. I liked ABA and WDT and bought separately recently. Like MVN too but SAM is more volatile as well and perhaps you see more growth potential. I watch it. Has picked a couple of takeovers and improved recently.

Predict the dil NAV 1.60+ tomorrow for KFL equivqlent to 1.64 cum div and if that doesn't lift the sp then people are being quite cautious at present. A low of 1.47 today or 8% disc. Perhaps the exchange rate uncertainty and higher interest rates likely make cash king at present. Clearly some are cashing up and watching the indicators and waiting or heading to the ASX. Don't blame them. ;)

Ttops
14-06-2007, 02:48 PM
Dil NAV 1.617 today greater than 1.60 as predicted. Selling after the notice at 1.49 8% discount to NAV! Equivalent to 1.65 cum div Nav has declined 1% sp declined 7% [?][?][?] Warrants are higher at 1.52 so why are people selling out head shares at 1.49? No significant changes today in NAV so flight to cash continues. Good buying for the brave imo.

KJ
14-06-2007, 03:19 PM
Maybe a bit of fear driving KFL-4 of its largest holdings showing weakness-RYM,MFT,PPL,RAK.You may be trying to over analyse things?

Ttops
14-06-2007, 03:56 PM
KJ
Perhaps but more likely the sellers don't analyse enough and are too easily swayed by their emotions. Who knows.
Only PPL and RYM are down over 1 month and only PPL over 3 months. The discount to dil NAV has been much more volatile than usual in the last two weeks swinging from 0 to 8% Perhaps the average is 4% and in times of uncertainty we get a greater discount. Thus better buying imo.

KJ
14-06-2007, 04:15 PM
I don't disagree with your comments re analysis.However emotion is a big driver of the market which you ignore at your peril.
Its largest investment-RYM-is down about 12% in a couple of weeks and looking like it will go lower.Could be a bit of fear creeping in.

Ttops
14-06-2007, 04:29 PM
Could be Rym. It does show signs and has the biggest component at 21% but could be a broker just saying sell. ASB Sec says 1 out of six has a strong sell on RYM Rest Hold or better. Rym could drop 40% and only cause KFL to drop 8.4% so it is a bit over the top. Its already done that! The warrants show more sense. I guess more traders trade warrants and are more attuned to the market than the average punter.

manxman
15-06-2007, 07:23 AM
KFL has a buyback program running on the warrants. It was inactive while the SP was closing in on the diluted NTA but now that the gap is opening, I expect the warrants to be supported by buyback. Buying back at current levels represents good value if the market is going sideways.

gisborne_gold
15-06-2007, 12:50 PM
I agree KFL and KFLWA are undervalued at today's prices.

At 1.49, KFL is trading at 8% below diluted NTA.

Based on diluted NTA and Black-Scholes, the warrants would be valued at around 63c. Yet KFLWA is trading at 52c, an 18% discount.

If you thought, say, that a 5% discount was about what you'd expect given recent trading history and the fact that Kingfish's holdings are so liquid and so transparent, you would still expect KFLWA to be up around 60c.

Ttops
19-06-2007, 01:33 PM
The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. :D Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.;)

baxter
19-06-2007, 03:35 PM
Having just received a dividend from Kingfish I am left wondering which is the better deal Kingfish or Fisher Growth Fund which does not pay dividends. Likewise Barramundi and Aussie Growth fund. Iwish to restrain my income from breaching the top rung, but increase the value of my assets.Do recent tax changes have any effect on all four. I hold all four.

gisborne_gold
19-06-2007, 04:51 PM
A while back I briefly considered the FDR tax question as it relates to the various listed and unlisted Fisher funds. I concluded that none were likely to be caught up in the FDR regime, assuming Fisher register them as PIEs, which I understand to be their intention.

As for your income question, perhaps only you can answer that one. You should perhaps pick funds based on overall return to you, taking account of your tax situation.

There seems to be quite a lot of overlap in the holdings between some of the various Fisher funds, and you should not assume that holding several funds necessarily gives you the portfolio diversification that you might otherwise expect.


quote:Originally posted by baxter

Having just received a dividend from Kingfish I am left wondering which is the better deal Kingfish or Fisher Growth Fund which does not pay dividends. Likewise Barramundi and Aussie Growth fund. Iwish to restrain my income from breaching the top rung, but increase the value of my assets.Do recent tax changes have any effect on all four. I hold all four.

lakeside
19-06-2007, 08:28 PM
It's the difference between a unit trust and a listed company.

Unit trusts are good for small regular amounts and reflect the value but probably higher fees.

Share type thing will vary more according to supply & demand, the market.

Underlying shares similar, performance similar.

KJ
20-06-2007, 11:12 AM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. :D Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.;)


Not sure whether it is ignorance or caution.
When you look at KFL, 67% of its investments are tied up in RYM,MFT,MET,PPL,& RAK with approx PE's of 30,20,24,24,& 53 respectively.

Sure, forward PE is what is important so a rough stab:
RYM-20% profit growth so PE reduces to say 24-still quite high.
MFT-maybe similar so a f'ward PE of 16
MET-20% profit growth so F'ward PE of 19.
PPL-maybe no growth so f'ward PE of 24
RAK-hard to predict with US dollar but requires a couple of yrs of doubling NPAT.

To be honest I got out a little while back and would not look to get back in. NAV is back to where it was at beginning of January and the Warrants have only 9 mths to run.

winner69
20-06-2007, 11:50 AM
KJ .... there is that old axiom (and quite a lot of research over the years to support it) that a portfolio of high PE shares (also apllies to markets) tend to lead to lower than average future long term returns over the next 5-10 years

When Carmel started buying these shares they were much more modestly valued than they are now

Some of the stocks they have in Oz are similarly valued (like CCP which is starting to have huge expectations built into it)

Ttops
20-06-2007, 07:59 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ


quote:Originally posted by Treetops

The fear is gone for now. Lets hope it happens again and we can profit once more from the ignorance of others. :D Warrants still lagging but creeping up. The bargains are nearly gone.;)


Not sure whether it is ignorance or caution.
When you look at KFL, 67% of its investments are tied up in RYM,MFT,MET,PPL,& RAK with approx PE's of 30,20,24,24,& 53 respectively.



Sure, forward PE is what is important so a rough stab:
RYM-20% profit growth so PE reduces to say 24-still quite high.
MFT-maybe similar so a f'ward PE of 16
MET-20% profit growth so F'ward PE of 19.
PPL-maybe no growth so f'ward PE of 24
RAK-hard to predict with US dollar but requires a couple of yrs of doubling NPAT.

To be honest I got out a little while back and would not look to get back in. NAV is back to where it was at beginning of January and the Warrants have only 9 mths to run.


KJ
You don't think you take into account the diluted NAV is not the headline NAV quoted. (2.06 in Jan and now.) I think that is one reason some punters sold recently. The diluted NAV takes into account the warrants anyway. The diluted NAV is currently around 1.61-1.62 and was 1.56 in Jan and a 3.5 cents div has been just paid which was paid at 1.52 for Div reinvestment. So would be 1.65-1.66 including the div.

The ASB Sec research quote the forward 2008 PE's as
RYM 22.9
MFT 13.5
Met -
Fre 15.5
Rak 32.6
MHI 16.0
PPL 18.4
I have no idea how accurate they are compared to your figures but the management of these companies is pretty good.
PPL is probably behind MHI in % now and not as significant. I guess the currency has stunted KFL in respect of MFT FRE RAK MHI and PPL just as FPH is currently low. It's bound to drop sooner or later and improve the dil NAV. so I'm prepared to wait as 6.5% increase in 5mths is OK for me in a diversified managed share.
When I bought into KFL I liked each of the individual shares but didn't have the confidence to back them individually. Hence my caution is to diversify my risk. Say I had backed just PPL and FPH and GPG. I would have been down considerably. I leave that to Carmel to earn her fees so I don't have to worry. I agree its not for experienced investors with the time and money. They avoid the fees and can get better trades than KFL and plan their exits with all the charting facilities at their disposal. While punters still can't figure out KFL's true worth as the brokers don't push it as far as I know I continue to have a little advantage.;) I buy when the discount is high. I'm not a trader but the price has fluctuated between 1.63 and 1.49 and back to 1.59! all for very little change in dil. NAV. Many punters have focussed exclusively on PPL and RAK. My current explanation is fear of short term falls and ignorance of the dil. NAV's importance compared to headline NAV reported.

It could be that cautious investors are simply getting out because they know more than me. Time will tell who is right.
Perhaps Phaedrus or another TA could run his indicators over KFL and see if I should be out. OBV seems OK. I couldn't explain the recent fall so took it as an opportunity to top up based on my knowledge of predicting the dil. NAV with my spreadsheet.

I also told sharetrader what I was doing so if you have some better punts let us know too!
Disc: KFL KFLWA BRM and BRMWA are currently the major shares in my portfolio

KJ
21-06-2007, 08:38 AM
Treetops
I do understand diluted NAV-all I was trying to do was give you another perspective and hence my comments about the importance of sentiment and forward PE's.I was not giving an opinion on whether you are right or wrong as I do not know.You seem to be saying that others are ignorant if they see things differently from you.You may be correct.

Do you consider high forward PE's a bit of a warning?
I agree that the shares that I referred to are high quality stocks but they are now quite highly valued.

You ask for my punts-my main investments currently are: ABA,DGL,DFH,IFT,IFTWC,TWR,& BRMWA.
Recently sold RYM (in 250-260 range) (Look to re-enter at 200)
Recently bought DPC (av 185)as a recovery punt

Ttops
21-06-2007, 05:12 PM
KJ
Point taken. The PE's of those I quoted are all reducing into a more normal zone but you are right it is a warning they are shares with a higher potential for growth and a higher potential to fall if that growth is not achieved. FF gives me the confidence that the management is good and the likelihood is less. All shares have a risk to reward ratio. A classic example is SLG today. As part of KFL its pretty insignificant but owning directly a 5% fall. I diversify my risk in KFL If I buy when the discount is large I have a buffer.

I have noticed a correlation between the headline NAV affecting the price more than the diluted NAV as it has when warrants have been bought back. I should use the word irrational rather than ignorant and was referring to the market. The market does what it wants. If this causes the discount to widen it creates buying opportunities for the brave.
You clearly trade more whereas I accumulate at a discount and hold. The currency is clearly unpredictable at present so I expect more volatility in KFL and a bigger discount could open probably around 2-4% The KFL shares are often fully valued but this has always been the case and has never stopped them rising particularly in Ryman's case. The rate of growth will slow and eventually Carmel will bring in new blood like RAK and DGL.
We hold some shares in common. I like ABA and BRMWA. IFT I follow but hold TPW directly. I have GPG so sold TWR. Know nothing about DFH and DPC. Thanks for the comments.

ratkin
06-07-2007, 01:14 PM
Many of the kingfisher stocks now looking either very toppy or already in decline.
Ryman is fully priced, pumpkin patch overpriced and the others too look fairly stretched. The market in general looking weak , some of the magic is wearing off.

Ttops
06-07-2007, 04:44 PM
Agreed that many are already in a downtrend but that is nearly a month old. The market has fairly priced it for now but as I got out of two thirds of my holding at 1.60 I'm happy to hold now. The surprising thing is it is predictable. The warrants lead the way. The Nav hasn't dropped as much as you think of course. Both Rym and Mft are dam good long term shares and PT would differ with you on Rym on another thread? Still bargains for the brave if you can calc the NAV and determine long term value. ;)

Ttops
12-07-2007, 01:46 PM
7% to disc to dil. NAV

Wonder what FF will do with its KID money. Will buy something else in advance as per last takeover WAM. Any thoughts fellow ST's?
Perhaps a special DIV? :)

winner69
11-09-2007, 02:25 PM
Agreed that many are already in a downtrend but that is nearly a month old. The market has fairly priced it for now but as I got out of two thirds of my holding at 1.60 I'm happy to hold now. The surprising thing is it is predictable. The warrants lead the way. The Nav hasn't dropped as much as you think of course. Both Rym and Mft are dam good long term shares and PT would differ with you on Rym on another thread? Still bargains for the brave if you can calc the NAV and determine long term value. ;)


Glad you saw the light of day eh Treetops

The discount to NAV still about te same and the share price down to 133 today

Possibly the result of KFL having too many overvalued stocks in the portfolio .... they better start pumping up the prices again with the old retirment money they are getting soon ... or else no high performance fees this year

ratkin
11-09-2007, 06:20 PM
Winner makes an interesting point , is it enough to look at discount to NAV ?

Normally you would say yes, however if the company has actually pumped up the prices of its investments then the NAV is artificially high.

To illustrate this point i will use the example of sealegs. Was around 40-50 cents , however as soon as fisher bought in the price quickly shot up as hgh as 1.00. Fisher investing pumped the price up due to their buying and the buying of others who suddenly thought that if fisher was buying then it was a good company.

Im not suggesting that there is anything underhand about it all , but when calculating NAV you need to be sure the companies prices are not higher than they would of been if fisher were not holding

winner69
11-09-2007, 07:11 PM
Ratkin .... this is why CCP in OZ hasn't come down to your buy price .... Fisher just keeps on buying

Ttops
11-09-2007, 08:20 PM
Glad you saw the light of day eh Treetops

The discount to NAV still about te same and the share price down to 133 today

Possibly the result of KFL having too many overvalued stocks in the portfolio .... they better start pumping up the prices again with the old retirment money they are getting soon ... or else no high performance fees this year
Winner
Must admit to having the blinkers on for a touch too long, they were overvalued. I've learned from the experience. Have liquidated the lot now but found the stock too restrictive with its low turnover. When the trend was obvious I bit the bullet. I am out of BRM as well and watching the gyrations with interest but not tempted. The aussie stocks are far more enticing.

Ratkin
What you say about the pumping hasn't happened with KFL yet but seems to be with the BRM stocks. AVE being supported as well. The NZ market is too small for Fisher.

shasta
11-09-2007, 08:24 PM
Winner
Must admit to having the blinkers on for a touch too long, they were overvalued. I've learned from the experience. Have liquidated the lot now but found the stock too restrictive with its low turnover. When the trend was obvious I bit the bullet. I am out of BRM as well and watching the gyrations with interest but not tempted. The aussie stocks are far more enticing.

Ratkin
What you say about the pumping hasn't happened with KFL yet but seems to be with the BRM stocks. AVE being supported as well. The NZ market is too small for Fisher.


TT

You certainly had the patienta with Carmel/Kingfisher, far more than i ever did!

Ttops
11-09-2007, 08:37 PM
Shasta
If I had been less blinkered and more prepared to explore other opportunities would have done so sooner. Put it down to lack of experience rather than lots of patienta.

winner69
10-11-2007, 06:45 AM
Kingfish slumps to $6.1m first half loss

Might surprise those who don't follow their investment daily ...... headlines just like the finance companies are getting ..... hell, is my money safe?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10475135

Balance
10-11-2007, 08:53 AM
Kingfish slumps to $6.1m first half loss

Might surprise those who don't follow their investment daily ...... headlines just like the finance companies are getting ..... hell, is my money safe?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10475135

CCP in Barramundi just blew up (down 50%) and some of KFL's large shareholdings are looking ill. PPL is down 35% from its March high and Cadmus is well off.

Good on Fisher funds - they sure know how to milk the sentiment (before KFL well downhills) and took in over $200m from Mums and Dads (mostly ASB and ABN Craigs clients) to play in the offshore markets. What is Fisher's competitive advantage playing offshore?

winner69
10-11-2007, 09:00 AM
Balance .... plenty of fees eh ..... maybe a float of the management company coming up

manxman
20-11-2007, 02:57 PM
Time for Kingfish to raise some money and buy in their own shares, which are far more undervalued than anything in their portfolio.

Mx

Ttops
20-11-2007, 05:00 PM
Time for Kingfish to raise some money and buy in their own shares, which are far more undervalued than anything in their portfolio.

Mx
At 1.16 low today KFL must be discounted more than 20% now. Haven't been following it. Must be the DOW surely. Will know tomorrow if Carmel has been buying. Does look like good buying again. How overvalued are their shares now. Rak and PPL are down but at less than 20% of the portfolio even if they drop 10% from here thats only about 2cents off the sp. Carmel must have known that Rak could drop thats why they were getting out earlier around 4.80. Wouldn't be surprised if she has been buying. Makes sense. KFLWA have really plummeted. Would she buy them in preference?

BRICKS
22-11-2007, 04:31 PM
LOOKS like Carmel has not got a seat next to GOD after ALL..

Ttops
22-11-2007, 04:56 PM
LOOKS like Carmel has not got a seat next to GOD after ALL..
Currently Bricks, KFL is at a 20-21% discount and was at a 23% discount to dil NAV at the 1.16 low. :confused: Carmel is well and truely on a downer. No true believers have stuck by her. She isn't even buying back her own shares.
Trouble is, Who is GOD at present when it comes to picking shares. NZO holders perhaps. :D

ratkin
22-11-2007, 05:02 PM
I notice the NAV is down only 3cents since last week yet the shareprice has tanked , people concentrating too much on the bad news , ie rakon and pumpkin patch.

Ryman and mainfreight very solid and are the two largest holdings

Ttops
23-11-2007, 07:09 PM
I notice the NAV is down only 3cents since last week yet the shareprice has tanked , people concentrating too much on the bad news , ie rakon and pumpkin patch.

Ryman and mainfreight very solid and are the two largest holdings
Agree with you Ratkin. Am finding the markets hard to follow at present.
Rym reports a record profit increase of 22% and pessimism abounds. Likewise MFT increase by 9% My guess is Carmel thinks Monday or even later will be even better buying when the pessimism peaks. She probably can't believe whats happening either. She bought back too soon. Even SLG looking promising. Glad I sold out before but am looking closely at how far this dog falls. Could be quite a bargain if the suckers keep it falling. Just want to time it at peak pessimism and not before. ;)

winner69
09-12-2007, 09:34 AM
Does anyone else think that the current discount to diluted NAV is a bit large for Kingfish limited?

Ordinary Shares trading at 95 cents
NAV per ordinary share = 134.89 cents
Diluted NAV per ordinary share (allowing for conversion of warrants at $1.00) = 117.56 cents

Discount to NAV per ordinary share = 29.6%
Discount to NAV per diluted ordinary share = 19.2%



This was the first post on this thread 2 years ago

Same story about the discount to NAV (a lot of which is the NPV of future management fees anyway) .......... but at least 30% up over 2 years ..... good stuff ...... and slightly better than the NZX50

Toddy
14-02-2008, 12:51 PM
KFL SP is holding up pretty well given the sell off in PPL and RAK today.

Toddy
15-02-2008, 12:24 PM
KFL SP is holding up pretty well given the sell off in PPL and RAK today.

KFL a buck flat.
March 08 warrants 2 cents.

Remember the good old days.

winner69
15-02-2008, 12:42 PM
KFL a buck flat.
March 08 warrants 2 cents.

Remember the good old days.


Amazing eh --- and they say NAV is $1.58 ($1.34 diluted)

Wonder what happened to the investment guru .......... that announcement today created some doubt

Is that why the 11% fall today ..... or are some punters so worried that all the KFL investments will go broke so they may as well get out now?

Even Marlin took a dive today

Treetops will be buying up big .... where is treetops I wonder

Toddy
15-02-2008, 12:58 PM
KFL has some great stocks that will perform well in the long term. However, the problem with owning large chunks of small NZ businesses is that when the chips are down you have your hands tied.

Toulouse - Luzern
15-02-2008, 01:19 PM
Hi
Check it out on DB site - KFL, MLN, BRM - and eg as posted below for KFL

Todays NZX announcements W Couillault resigns as Director, continues as employee for KFL, MLN, BRM.
New Director will be announced next week...
For many the drop in NAV for FFM, funds in NZ and OZ is..."sickening"
What is going on ...
therefore what?
Any insights...
TL

KFL
15/02/2008
GENERAL

REL: 1102 HRS Kingfish Limited

GENERAL: KFL: Fisher Funds update

Warren Couillault has resigned as a director of Fisher Funds Management Ltd.
He remains an employee of Fisher Funds. The appointment of another director
will be announced early next week.
End CA:00160548 For:KFL Type:GENERAL Time:2008-02-15:11:02:39

p2r
15-02-2008, 09:08 PM
They are certainly in disarray.

My feeling is BRM and Credit corp are Warrens, and he has been made to front up & fall on his sword.

There is a newletter in Fishers fund where they talk about global sharemarkets and whether to cash in KFLWAs if KFL is less than $1. I suppose not.
And all the talk about excessive bonuses, warrants leveraging down the NTA, and PIEs tax benefits is irrelevant when they are losing money.

As well as being hammered in OZ, RYM & PPL etc have dropped like stones.

I think the listed KFL, BRM & MLN have fared worse than the unit trust (& NZ Superfund) because of market sentiment, but the buy backs have held up the prices a bit.

Buying back warrants for 30c (as KFL) has been a waste of money.

MLN still has lots of cash so might be OK.

Where to now? Will KFL issue more warrants. Got to be a worry in this declining market who will buy them. I can see why warrants are useful for resource companies but perhaps investments should never go up enough to make them worthwhile

TwinkleToes
15-02-2008, 09:30 PM
Just a point that may not have been mentioned. The manager of the various Fisher Funds is compensated on the basis of the NAV and not the share price. When I found this out I sold my shares in Marlin two months ago at a big loss.

Before doing so I rang Fisher Funds and told them that the structure of the funds was wrong (as determined by the massive discounts of the share prices). I said the moral action would be for them to admit the flaws with the fund's structures and liquidate and give the money back to shareholders.

Of course they rejected that idea!

I see that Fishers have been buying stock in BRM and KFL to support the prices. This is rational considering the NAV's. However, the MOST rational act for the shareholders is fund liquidation and distribution.

shasta
15-02-2008, 10:17 PM
Just a point that may not have been mentioned. The manager of the various Fisher Funds is compensated on the basis of the NAV and not the share price. When I found this out I sold my shares in Marlin two months ago at a big loss.

Before doing so I rang Fisher Funds and told them that the structure of the funds was wrong (as determined by the massive discounts of the share prices). I said the moral action would be for them to admit the flaws with the fund's structures and liquidate and give the money back to shareholders.

Of course they rejected that idea!

I see that Fishers have been buying stock in BRM and KFL to support the prices. This is rational considering the NAV's. However, the MOST rational act for the shareholders is fund liquidation and distribution.

They won't liquidate a company where they get paid to look after "your" money, regardless of performance, nice try though!

Don't they put half of there bonus fees into buying shares on market?

I'm sure they did this a while back, maybe Treetops will remember?

I was in KFL a while back & did quite well out of it when its main holdings were running quite nicely (MFT, RAK, PPL etc).

If they can't find a decent home for the money (& i dont mean sitting around doing nothing but earning interest!) they should be buying back shares on market & retain as treasury shares to use for future DRP's.

Perhaps you should contact KFL & request they get 50&#37; of there management fees in KFL shares on market, & keep them on escrow for 12 months.(If they refuse, they clearly don't back themselves!)

Whilst perfomance on NAV seems unfair, you don't want management too focussed on the short term & selling winners to meet KPI's, at the expense of shareholders longer term interests.

Look at GPG & IFT, like KFL they announce "lumpy" earnings due to the timing of asset sales, so how else would you want there KPI's set?

As an Accountant, i'm seeing the term EVA (Economic Value Added) become more & more prevailent, in brief it's the kind of KPI, Warren Buffett would like, as it refers to "use/allocation of capital".

That's very simplistic but i'm not going into it in great depth on here, but i wonder if it's a more "transparent" KPI that they may agree to?

I always found the KFL team very approachable, though i've been out for quite a while.

winner69
16-02-2008, 06:42 AM
.......

As an Accountant, i'm seeing the term EVA (Economic Value Added) become more & more prevailent, in brief it's the kind of KPI, Warren Buffett would like, as it refers to "use/allocation of capital".

That's very simplistic but i'm not going into it in great depth on here, but i wonder if it's a more "transparent" KPI that they may agree to?

I always found the KFL team very approachable, though i've been out for quite a while.

Good old EVA ..... easiest way to assess 'EVA' is look at ROIC -- one of the first financial things Winner looks at when assessing things (doesn't work for spec resource companies and the like) ......... because at tells you whether a company is creating or adding value (like excessive returns over the cost of capital) ....... and at the end of the day generally only value creators have strong shareholder returns

Don't really see how EVA fits in with KFL (even though I hope they use it to assess there investments) in that they takes your money and try to turn it into something bigger. They do sort of have an excessive return KPI ---- isn't there objective to make returns of X% points over the bank rate (the risk free rate of return)

JMKC
16-02-2008, 10:17 AM
Warren is not the portfolio manager for Barramundi (which obviously has CCP in its slew of stocks). Frank Jasper manages the Australian portfolio so I doubt Warren has been made to fall on his sword for that reason, if any.

Balance
16-02-2008, 11:44 AM
Now why would someone with 27% in a highly lucrative fees for life fund management firm resign as a director but remains as an employee? Something doesn't smell right?


Couillault resigns as Fisher Funds director
5:00AM Saturday February 16, 2008
By Tamsyn Parker


Warren Couillault. Photo / Kenny Rodger
Fisher Funds' chief investment officer Warren Couillault has resigned as a director.

Couillault, who currently remains an employee with the firm, joined Fisher in 2002 and became part of the board in 2004 when he bought into the business.

He jointly manages the firm's New Zealand investment portfolios including the New Zealand Growth fund and listed Kingfish fund with managing director and principle Carmel Fisher, and also oversees investment decisions made by the company's two other investment teams.

Yesterday Fisher said Couillault remained a portfolio manager with the firm and a key player in investment decisions.

She said Couillault's decision to step down from the board was "for his own reasons".

Couillault did not return calls from the Business Herald..

Fisher put out a brief one-line statement to the market for its three listed vehicles Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin yesterday morning saying Couillault had decided to resign.

Fisher disputed rumours that there had been a disagreement: "There has been no bust-up. It's business as usual for us."

The specialist growth fund manager, which has previously sold itself to the public on its strong performance, has been hit hard in recent weeks by volatility and big sharemarket falls.

Fisher said investment money coming into the business had slowed, but a recent survey by fund management research firm FundSource showed the firm was still doing well compared to its peers.

Fisher said investors were nervous and much of the recent stock market falls could be attributed to investor sentiment. "It's investor sentiment driving things rather than anything fundamental."

She said the firm was looking forward to the reporting season over the next couple of weeks to gain certainty about the companies it invested in.

Fisher and her husband Hugh remain directors along with Australian portfolio manager Frank Jasper, who owns a 10 per cent share in the business with his wife and Anthony Segedin.

The Fishers have a 55 per cent stake while Couillault owns just under 27 per cent with his wife Sarah. The remaining shares are owned by Ashwell Holdings, LBD Trustees and the firm's new fund manager Ken Applegate, who joined the company late last year.

An announcement on Couillault's replacement on the board is expected early next week.

Kingfish's share price closed down 8c yesterday at $1.05.

p2r
16-02-2008, 01:29 PM
Something doesn't smell right?

Investor scentiment?

Balance
16-02-2008, 03:45 PM
Hmm ... me thinks the fish and barramundi have gone off.

Steve
17-02-2008, 03:13 PM
With the lack of a 'reason' forthcoming, the rumour-mill is suggesting that there could have been a professional indescretion of some kind.

At the end of the day, especially if you own 27&#37; of the business and have been active in the running of it, there must be a strong reason to give up your seat on the board...

IMO, he has always come across as a stand-up trustworthy guy, so they should put the truth out there to stop the rumours spreading.

Toddy
18-02-2008, 11:48 AM
'She said Couillault's decision to step down from the board was "for his own reasons".'

This does not make sense to me at all. If you were going to step aside surely you would stay on the board and step down from managing the portfolios.
i.e how many board meetings do you think Fisher has every month.

Something does not add up here.

winner69
18-02-2008, 11:58 AM
'She said Couillault's decision to step down from the board was "for his own reasons".'

This does not make sense to me at all. If you were going to step aside surely you would stay on the board and step down from managing the portfolios.
i.e how many board meetings do you think Fisher has every month.

Something does not add up here.

.... the only thing I can think off is that the they stopped having sausage rolls at the board meetings and this is his protest

Agree with those who feel there is more to this than the headlines say ....... suppose he still has his shareholding?

Bobby_Fischer
18-02-2008, 02:51 PM
Final exercise date for KFL warrants is looming (31/03). I suppose it would benefit existing shareholders somewhat if large numbers of warrants lapsed, which would seem a real possibility in the current market. And anything else which helped to drive the SP down towards $1 would also be helpful. Hmmmm.

Toddy
18-02-2008, 03:44 PM
Final exercise date for KFL warrants is looming (31/03). I suppose it would benefit existing shareholders somewhat if large numbers of warrants lapsed, which would seem a real possibility in the current market. And anything else which helped to drive the SP down towards $1 would also be helpful. Hmmmm.

It would help non KFL share holders if the warrants were exercised. The cash from the warrants would help support other NZ shares as KFL purchased more on market.

But then again, it would be unlikely that they would buy more RAK, PPL etc as they already have more than enough exposure to the obvious risks of buying into young companys.

COLIN
18-02-2008, 04:22 PM
Not a good time for holding a portfolio of small-cap growth stocks with high P/Es.
And another thing: A bear market highlights the inequities of having high performance fees as part of the remuneration for fund managers; in years of gross underperformance has anyone heard of any manager who has refunded even a small percentage of those fees?!
I was one of Carmel's devotees for quite a while but I have lost the faith in recent months.

DISC: Sold BRM and BRMWA shortly after the float as couldn't see justification for premium, didn't buy into the Marlin float as couldn't see how they could succeed in finding superior value in such a well-worked and vast sea, but unfortunately held onto my KFL's.

chrisw
19-02-2008, 07:29 AM
Long time lurker, first time poster...

Talking to a broker at ASB Securities yesterday and as we were jointly commiserating over the performance of KFL and KFLWA (brought those turkeys last Nov @ 30 cents :( ), he mentioned KFL will release more information on Warren's departure this week. Better be good is all that I can say!

Cheers, Chris W.

COLIN
19-02-2008, 07:34 AM
Chris - let me be the first to welcome you on board. I am sure you will find it more rewarding to be an active contributor - makes one think a bit more about issues. (That is, "more rewarding" than KFL warrants!)

Toddy
20-02-2008, 07:21 AM
The gloves are well and truely on.

Rift at the top of Fisher Funds?
By GARETH VAUGHAN - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 20 February 2008

An apparent bust-up between high-profile fund manager Carmel Fisher and her right-hand man, Warren Couillault, comes against a backdrop of a changing fund management sector.


Mr Couillault, Fisher Funds Management's chief investment officer and 27 per cent shareholder, stepped down as a director on Friday but remains an employee.

The move followed managing director Ms Fisher telling sharebrokers on Thursday night that Mr Couillault no longer had authority to trade shares on behalf of Fisher Funds.

Yesterday Ms Fisher said she could not confirm suggestions she would buy Mr Couillault's stake in the business. She said it was Mr Couillault's decision to stand down as a director, which he had done for personal reasons.

Removing his right to trade was a routine temporary suspension made whenever there was a change in the firm's investment team, Ms Fisher said. She hoped to be able to comment fully within a few days once a few issues were worked through with Mr Couillault.

"It's not a case of there being any wrongdoing or anything sinister in any way." Suggestions of a falling out between the two were people filling in the information void with their own assumptions, she said. "We're looking forward to being able to fill the information void ourselves with some facts."

Mr Couillault had been in Fisher Funds' Takapuna office both on Monday and again yesterday morning.

Mr Couillault said yesterday he was unable to comment for the time being.

Ms Fisher started Fisher Funds from her home in Auckland's Devonport suburb in 1998 with $17 million to manage on behalf of insurer Sovereign. Today Fisher Funds manages about $1 billion for more than 20,000 investors.

Fisher Funds, which Mr Couillault joined in June 2002, has also successfully listed three investment companies on the sharemarket - Marlin Global, Barramundi and Kingfish. Renowned for taking big stakes in growth companies and being a long-term shareholder, Fisher Funds has, like most fund managers, been hit by this year's market downturn.

Steve
20-02-2008, 08:14 PM
She hoped to be able to comment fully within a few days once a few issues were worked through with Mr Couillault.
...
Mr Couillault said yesterday he was unable to comment for the time being.

I gather that he won't be an employee for much longer...

COLIN
18-03-2008, 10:46 AM
Holders of KFL head shares will be hoping that not too many warrant holders actually take up their entitlements, thus minimising the dilutionary effects. (Diluted NAV of $1-24 versus undiluted $1-41). In today's conditions, and with the head shares at just over a dollar, I don't think many will.
However, I have noted that the shrewd Frank Pearson has been buying up SAMWA, even though the SAM price is well below $1. I guess the reason for doing that is that he would not be able to purchase significant quantities of the heads without pushing the price up over $1.

Back to KFL: What will Carmel do with the extra funds that do arrive from those warrant holders who exercise their rights? She could leave it in cash meantime, or she could buy more PPL RAK etc and help staunch the flow of blood from those stocks.

winner69
18-03-2008, 10:56 AM
Carmel would want as many to take their rights up .... more management fees eh!!!!


... and Treetops would ay where else can you buy $1.21 for a buck

Toddy
18-03-2008, 11:15 AM
Carmel would want as many to take their rights up .... more management fees eh!!!!


... and Treetops would ay where else can you buy $1.21 for a buck

Please, please take up all of your rights.

We need more Fishers to keep on pumping cash into the NZX.

manxman
18-03-2008, 06:44 PM
With the share price so close to the exercise price of the warrants, someone had to make a decision on whether to keep on buyng back warrants. Most of them will fall off the tree anyway, so buying them back is just giving away petfood to those who are deserting the sinking ship.
This decision was taken about the time Warren decided to spend more time with his cat. It was obviously a board level decision because suspending a board authorized buyback is a board decision.
Subsequent happenings on Wall Street, and in our marketplace, have justified the decision to suspend warrant buybacks but at the time it was a close call.
The climate is obviously wrong for the warrants, which means very little dilution, and maybe - just maybe - a repricing of the head shares. 20&#37; discount on NTA would be a big improvement.

Mx (Disc - No longer a holder, being treated for burns.)

manxman
28-03-2008, 12:51 AM
Kingfish Limited is a listed investment company investing in smaller
companies that are listed on the NZSX and NZAX, and unlisted smaller
companies. The investment portfolio is managed by Fisher Funds Management
Limited, a specialist New Zealand investment manager with a track record of
successfully investing in smaller company shares. Kingfish began operating in
March 2004 when it received subscriptions for 58.5m shares at $1 per share.

With the warrants out of the way, the fully diluted NAV jumps from $1.23 to $1.39. A predator could make a quick buck by taking over KFL and selling off the silverware.

Or FFManagement could do much the same by quietly selling off assets and buying back heavily discounted shares, thus raising the NAV, and nudging up the share price.

Kingfish started out in March 2004 when the NZX50 was heading up past 2500. Things have been a bit rough lately but the NZX50 is still at 3400, 36% above its level when Kingfish started. So the NAV has kept pace with the index, but the share price is back at square one. Time for action.

Mx

Balance
28-03-2008, 06:41 PM
Predator buy KFL? And buy all the problem shareholdings in PPL, Rakon, Mainfreight etc?

The market is not dumb. Look at how BRM has blown up.

Toulouse - Luzern
29-03-2008, 09:45 AM
I set up a sample portfolio for analysis of FFM NZ and OZ investments.

Quite simple approach with the stocks in the FFM newsletter. Sample portfolio is not weighted with the actual # of shares or $ value in each stock. I have no insight on timing of FFM buys and sells or exits. So sample portfolio is indicative only.

Bottom line is:
FFM NZ
Since 1 Jan 2008 = no winners and down 27%
Since 1 Feb 2008 down 18%
Since 1 Mar down 9%

Worst stocks are CVT -46%, DLG -36%, MET -36% since 1 Jan 2008
Best stock FRE -8% since 1 Jan 2008
Glimmer of light is that some FFM NZ stocks are positive from 1 Feb and from 1 Mar 2008

FFM OZ
Since 1 Mar 2008 down 9%

ABC -59%
NCK - 24%
DWS -23%

CCP plus 41% (After big write down earlier in 2008)
RKN + 3%, BVA + 7%, WHG + 9% OKN + 4%

Arbitrage
30-03-2008, 04:11 PM
In case you missed it here is a link to an article in the Sunday Star interviewing Carmel Fisher
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4457366a13.html

winner69
30-03-2008, 04:49 PM
In case you missed it here is a link to an article in the Sunday Star interviewing Carmel Fisher
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4457366a13.html

One good thing for RAK and PPL holders in that story .... they only transferred the Super Funds to them ... the Supper Fund say they are going to hold .... and Fishers buying more .... that'll help the price over the next few weeks or so

voltage
30-03-2008, 08:51 PM
This stock must be at a good buy, all the stocks held are now very good value and the fund is also sitting on a very good discount. If most of the warrants are not taken up this will be good news for the head shares.

COLIN
30-03-2008, 08:55 PM
This stock must be at a good buy, all the stocks held are now very good value and the fund is also sitting on a very good discount. If most of the warrants are not taken up this will be good news for the head shares.

I tend to agree, Voltage. (See my post of 18 March.)
Also, as Carmel points out in the article in today's Sunday Star Times, following the change in the NZ Superannuation Fund management arrangements, she is again able to resume taking fresh money into her Growth Fund (same investment profile as KFL) so this should help push up the demand for her favourite growth stocks again.

chrisw
31-03-2008, 07:56 AM
I have decided that even though there is the possibility of taking a tax loss on the warrants, that I will convert them all to shares. It may mean holding a little bit of extra debt for the next few months, but it would require a big downtime to prevent this one returning to a at worst 10&#37; discount in the next few months.

Cheers, Chris W.

Balance
01-04-2008, 08:10 PM
Obviously a very hard swallow for Morningstar to admit that they have recommended a lemonfish in the last 4 years.

When you are wrong, make it even more wrong! Then, it might become right?


Fisher Funds recommended by Morningstar
Tuesday 1st April 2008
Fisher Funds has been given a recommended rating from research house Morningstar, which says the manager "remains one of the best domestic equities approaches on offer".

While Morningstar has issued more glowing reports on the manager previously, the one released today is still positive.

It says that while Fisher Funds has been experiencing "some testing times" it is assured that founder Carmel Fisher can "stay ahead of the market and many rivals over the long term."

Morningstar says two clouds hover over the firm; one is the departure of chief investment office Warren Couillault, and the other is the size of the strategy and liquidity of some holdings.

Couillault's departure is a blow, as there's no doubt he played a key role in the strategy's success during his five years at the firm.

However, Morningstar says not to underestimate Fisher and to remember the firm moved quickly to make a new appointment. Recently it appointed Murray Brown as a senior analyst. Morningstar says Fisher has $400 million invested in its strategy and that it is highly-concentrated and holds some small illiquid stocks.

On the positive side Morningstar says Fisher is well aware of these issues and is able to handle the associated risks.

Morningstar's strongest criticism is over a fee hike last year. It says it's "not overly enthused about the fee hike" which saw the management fee rise to 1.5% plus a performance bonus related to the 90-day bank bill rate.

"This now makes it one of the more expensive New Zealand offerings. We'd prefer to see an equities-based hurdle, which would be more appropriate for this strategy than cash."

Morningstar says it's "comfortable that (Fisher's) strategy's in good shape, and have no problem continuing to endorse it as a supporting player."

It suggests the fund should be used in tandem with a core domestic equities holding.

ratkin
01-04-2008, 08:22 PM
Did they sack you ? Or have you lost money because of them ?

You seem very bitter