NEW investor strategies

[duncan macgregor]

The year 2005 Is almost gone with sharetrader posters devoid of new Ideas and strategies. THATS HOW I READ IT GUYS. PHEADRUS shares his chart systems, SNOOPY gives us the fundamentals, you lot contribute very little to new systems or even Ideas. I was silly enough to introduce a time line system and share it with you. The result was negativity at its peak. Has anyone out there got any new investing Ideas, or is the forum a complete waste of time. The forum seems more preoccupied by shooting people down, rather than encourage new ideas. Lets hear your system, some of us might adopt a very small part of it, others might reject it but lets know what it is. macdunk

[shasta]

Ok, i'll front up with my system of selecting stocks, nothing earth shattering but here goes...

Having read alot about the investment styles used by Warren Buffett & Benjamin Graham its all a bit of common sense really, but i do look for certain criteria, as im both an investor and trader.

I look for the following companies, & on finding a suitable target it goes on my watchlist & is researched further until it hits a pre-determined price i have put on it, which is always at a discount to the current market value.

As an investor:
1. Increasing EPS & Dividends over last 5 yrs
2. Cheap/Realistic P/E to its peers
3. Strong Management with interests aligned to shareholders & little/no executive options (one reason i dont like FPA/FPH)
4. Not in a confirmed long term down trend

Basically Value & Growth orientated using stop losses & pre-determined exit points

As a trader, i look for:
1. Corporate Activity, Acquistions, T/O's, IPO entitlements, Rights, Options, short term plays etc

2. Temporary economic/cyclical reasons for low SP when fundamentals still ok

I also like to have one high risk punt on a low SP speculative company that i believe has a better than average chance of coming off.

One thing i have to add to my system is some form of timeline on exiting, as i always seems to sell too soon!

[duncan macgregor]

SHASTA, I buy with the fundamental analysis the way you do its the sell that gets most people on the wrong foot. I have a list of companies that i would invest in, and another list that i would never invest in. A good safe company goes from underpriced to over priced levels off, then drops and starts all over again. The cycle can be in a time frame of a number of years. When i finally understood that, it all became so easy to understand when to sell, and when to make a come back. A sell signal on a steep trending share is not the same as a sell signal on lesser trending share, It must be looked at in a different light. The steep trend got there to fast to stay and might go side ways for a period throwing you out to soon. That is why I have a time line in place at predetermined trend set at my stop loss level at the start. I watch the sp zig zag above my time line then if it falls below i sell without giving it a second thought. That way I see at a glance where the sp is going. Buying is the hard bit, selling is easy. Take a few old charts of some companies you sold to quick then try that system and perfect it before you do it. macdunk

[metro]

Do you think Duncan could learn about the "enter" button, the "tab" button and the spacebar.

Might make his postings easier to read eh

[shasta]

Thanks macdunk, i have sold some companies at the right time & others far to soon, but as i dont have a system as such i do get caught out.

Will look at some old charts & see if i can use them for the companies im looking into at the moment as i believe PGC, CMO & PMN all offer some value at present, but need further analysis.

[kittydashwood]

Hi there guys.

My system is pretty simple. I create a universe of 20 stocks I understand who pay dividends or will do in the future. I try to get a little money coming in ever month.
I use candlesticks. I'm in for 15 years I watched the market in the paper for most of 2000 and 2001 and started to buy in after Sept 2001.
I look for a handfull of breakout patterns and buy into companys with a record of increased earnings.
I take profits at 35% and again at 100% selling 1/4 of my investment each time.
I try to stay 95% invested although I do have some term deposits and hold MSD emerging country debt.

13.5% of my portfolio is in NZ 30% are in managed funds run by Bears Stern with an Emerging Economy & European focus. The remaining holdings are on the AMEX NYSE and NASDAQ in long holdings.

Although I try to stay long sometimes I run stop losses at key support levels. I have a small amount running with a swing trade brief, this trade is governed exclusively by Momentum so some trades last a day others last three months as with GROW.

Aim is to return 25% after tax so I aim for 35% gross return. Keep weekly records with a running NAV

Happy year of the dog!

[trendy]

I left the wild west NZX market midway through this year.I focus on the us markets with direct investments and emerging markets with mutual funds. I think the NZ dollar has to fall next year so would suggest you invest overseasas. A new trading firm that welcomes international accounts has opened here offering trades at $4.95 www.tradeking.com I'm planning to open an account with them.

Year ahead looks to be commodities and alertnative energy still. I'm focused on metals, solar, coal/gas to liquid technology.

disc:hold elsr, hw, ssl + mutual funds

[trendy]

quote:Originally posted by trendy

I left the wild west NZX market midway through this year.I focus on the us markets with direct investments and emerging markets with mutual funds. I think the NZ dollar has to fall next year so would suggest you invest overseas. A new trading firm that welcomes international accounts has opened here offering trades at $4.95 www.tradeking.com I'm planning to open an account with them.

Year ahead looks to be commodities and alernative energy still. I'm focused on metals, solar, coal/gas to liquid technology.

disc:hold elsr, hw, ssl + mutual funds

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Why south-seas scotty is looking for a new strategy !~!

Hi folks,

Really, to be fair, much of the mudslinging on these
forums is started by dunk, hisself ..... :)

Well, finally the results are in and that loud-mouthed south-seas
scotchman and his scurvy-ridden supporters have been soundly
beaten again, in the 2005 competition ..... !~!

Maybe the following results will teach you to keep your big mouth
shut and stop tipping the bucket on ALL traders around these
forums, until you learn how to trade successfully, dunk:

21 27.7% YOGIINOZ ........ EPE_COE_GOG_ICN_MPO

55 0.81% duncan macgregor. ALF_NZO_PGW_POT_TPW

To his supporters, who also dumped on astrotrading methods, earlier
in that thread, it seems that some did not even have the courage to
enter the competition, for fear of being exposed ..... and those who
did were also soundly beaten, but we'll save you some embarrassment
by not posting the results.

-----

..... and just in case, you thought our astrotrading methods still
fall into the category of stargazing, check out this average over
the past 4 years of competition, as posted by the Kiwi organiser:

The P.O.D. on 22/12/2005

For all those trainspotters out there...

Here's some results of punters who have been in the competition
at least three years...

NAME____ 2002_2003_2004_2005_Average

yogi-in-oz____ 68%__101%_28%__ 66%

Revhead___ 58% 139% -19% 59%
hobbit___ 85% 4% 46% 45%
younga___ 16% 105% -9% 57% 42%
stolwyk___ 35% -28% 113% 40%
Gofish___ 114% -13% 4% 35%
The P.O.D. 69% -3% 18% 28%
OldRider 58% 22% -7% 24%
paul29___ -28% 102% -27% 46% 23%
sparrow__ -43% 91% -20% 59% 22%
Turtle___ 43% 6% 1% 17%
bull….___ 43% -27% 25% 14%
Dimebag__ -13% 47% -5% 10%

AVERAGE___-2%_77%___-1%_35%_33%

Interesting that Yogi with his astro methodology is at the top
(and all positive) while Dimebag with his fundementals is at
the bottom.

This all means nothing at all, except that unforseen random
events play more of a part than anyone here cares to admit.

ps - no offence dimebag.

The P.O.D.
Edited by - The P.O.D. on 22/12/2005 10:02:06 PM

=====

Many thanks to The P.O.D ... Happy New Year ... :)

=====

For the 2006 competitions, our picks are:

ASX: BKP - IMU - MOG - MOS - NHE

NZX: NZO - TTP - ABA - BCF - CML

NZX January Monthly: NZE - NZOOD - TTP - CDL - CML

======

So ya scotty landlubber, let's see your picks for 2006
or maybe your search for a NEW trading system should
include reading some astrotrading books, before you
decide on your 2006 picks ..... lol ..... :)

happy new year to all

yogi

:)

[duncan macgregor]

YOGI you star gazing wally. I take it back I am trying to be nice you puffed up moonie. Any how well done yogi i was one of the first to place my selections lets see you bullsh*t your way through this time. Happy new year to you and any friends you might have [thats if you have any]. Give me heaps next year if you happen to fluke one again. your old mate macdunk.

[Kookaburra]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

The year 2005 Is almost gone with sharetrader posters devoid of new Ideas and strategies. THATS HOW I READ IT GUYS. PHEADRUS shares his chart systems, SNOOPY gives us the fundamentals, you lot contribute very little to new systems or even Ideas. I was silly enough to introduce a time line system and share it with you. The result was negativity at its peak. Has anyone out there got any new investing Ideas, or is the forum a complete waste of time. The forum seems more preoccupied by shooting people down, rather than encourage new ideas. Lets hear your system, some of us might adopt a very small part of it, others might reject it but lets know what it is. macdunk

This is a reasonable challenge DM. Not all of us have systems that necessarily warrent sharing because they lack the regular utility of the efforts of Phaedrus. However for what it is worth I will disclose my means. I read widely and I include this forum in my diet but rarely post because I have little to add to the wisdom and find it already too cluttered with foolishness anyway. The value of this site is that it will often bring to my attention articles that I might otherwise have missed. My method for what it is worth is that over time I form an impression from this reading as to where value lies. I also subscribe to various research sheets including McEwen in NZ. This shet provides a case in point. Some of my more successful investments have been McEwen recommendations but not at the time they were made but rather some time later when the price had dropped. Gunns would be the most recent example. Previous ones have include ALL, CPU, QBE, WPL etc. Over time I form a view, distilled rom all this advice, that a particular purchase or stock has to be too cheap to ignore. I then tend to take a large position in it. At present I have no particular stock in this category but do believe that silver is now a commodity to invest in for the same reason - the physical metal that is. As an initial move I will move some 10% of my portfolio into this shortly. Storage is the main isssue to resolve. The NZ Mint charges a minimum of $10,000 a year. I do not trust US storage as I still remember the Goldcorp fiasco in NZ and I am sure the same thing will play out in the US when the sawdust hits the fan.

[Dazza]

mine is 50% investment with a time frame till 2008

and rest into 50% spec auzzie shares.

aussie shares, are sell 1/2 at 100% and keep remaining .

also stop loss is at around 20% lose

mite change my strat soon though..

[Dazza]

trendy what other online brokers do u use for us US trades?

[Lizard]

Well here's my winning formula for making money. I don't use it much any more, but it worked well enough when I knew very little and had very little time. You don't have to know very much or work very hard, but you do have to be patient and not have a firm timeframe! Basic principle:

1. You can't lose money if you never sell a share at a loss.

Method:

1. Buy mid-sized companies which have assets, revenues and profits.
2. If they go up, good. Keep them for a while and sell when you get bored with them.
3. If they go down (more common), ignore them. When they are more than 30% down, start watching them and reading the announcements. When you think they've bottomed (usually about 50% down over 2 years), buy some more.
4. Watch them go up 100% in the next year and then sell them...

It works because most of these companies are pretty average companies that have good years and bad years and go up and down accordingly. It doesn't work on speccies and blue chips aren't so good as don't tend to get quite so over-valued/under-valued. It also fails when companies go into receivership, so don't buy cash-burners! I avoid buying parcels closer than 3 month intervals, because anything that went down that quickly is usually in serious trouble...

Obviously this is a rough guide only.

If you buy the same sized parcels each time, it works out at an IRR of 30%pa for a typical cycle. I was never quite that good though and averaged 18%pa over 7 years, with no losing years....but the method suited my stubborn contrarian personality.

As I have now got better at buying stocks that are on the way up rather than down, I don't need to use this method quite so often any more....

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

The year 2005 Is almost gone with sharetrader posters devoid of new Ideas and strategies. THATS HOW I READ IT GUYS. PHEADRUS shares his chart systems, SNOOPY gives us the fundamentals, you lot contribute very little to new systems or even Ideas. I was silly enough to introduce a time line system and share it with you. The result was negativity at its peak. Has anyone out there got any new investing Ideas, or is the forum a complete waste of time. The forum seems more preoccupied by shooting people down, rather than encourage new ideas. Lets hear your system, some of us might adopt a very small part of it, others might reject it but lets know what it is. macdunk


This post explains why some people will never do any good in the markets . The fact that you think you can learn how to be a successful investor by fequenting a chat forum says it all Macdunk.

Becoming a successful investor is like anything else you do in life - you have to do the work if you wish to succeed (and by that I don't mean hanging around on chat forums all day). The main work to be done is to educate yourself. I'v read hundreds of books on investing and in some area's of investing I still have a lot to learn. I continually read backround information on the markets. I also read books which take an indepth look at a particular subject other than investing . I am working towards getting a formal university qualification at the moment.I'm doing the work and I'm enjoying some success in the markets.

I don't need to invent a new investment system because the systems that worked 50 or 100 yrs ago still work today.
,

[duncan macgregor]

Mick 100, I understand where you are coming from so please dont take offence. To frequent a chat forem like we all do here is to leave your mind open to new Ideas. I have been in busines run companies did this did that. Life moves on, five years ago I told my wife what the hell do I need a computer for. I was a straight out fundamentalist technical analysis was for the screw balls. Today i expect that you with your new Ideas might teach me something that I might never have thought up. Pheadrus taught me TA I devised a system from that that suits me. The forum Is a great way to expand your knowledge you going to uni might like to contribute. MACDUNK

[Base Trader]

My job is to analyse companies and trading strategies. I use multiple methods of valuation including always DCF and typically also a customised real option model where I try to include and measure cyclical effects. I will not go into the full blown review of valuation and projections as while it is important most of the methods are beyond this forum and only support and measure the key fundamentals under which the decision is made.

What I have found in my 14 years in this game is that reasons/vectors for profitability are simple and few and the vectors for failure are numerous. Hence, you should have an over riding belief in a companies profitability because of one, two or three positives only. You can measure multiple vectors but you must manage any investment strategy within your capabilities. For most people they use a fair amount of heuristic analysis so the factors reviewed should be few so attention is not diverted.

I still find for structure that Porter (his 5 forces) remains an excellent structure and means to approach a Company review from a holistic point of view. That is the top. From that point you drill down and I always attempt to measure each risk.

As a final point – there is an axiom that “Companies don’t fail – Managements do”. While not wholly correct it is a good saying to remember. If you have issues with management and decisions they have made don’t back them. If I do not have total faith in management I walk away from the deal – no exceptions (unless we change management).

[Snoopy]

I've been using this investment strategy for some time, but I haven't had an umbrella name to describe it - until now. So in the spirit of Macdunks call for 'new' investing strategies I now present the:

"Sir Peter Blake America's Cup Yachting Investment Strategy" or

'SPBACYIS' for short.

The basic idea behind Sir Peter Blakes America's cup yachting campaign was simple. Take two good competitive boats that you know well and match them up against each other in racing conditions. Generally both boats will be respected ones, and each boat building architecture and crew drill will probably slightly different themes amongst a central campaign design philosophy. By 'match racing' the two against each other you can best see which of the differences really make a difference.

Now transfer SPBACYIS to the sharemarket.

Fibreglass and Sail are replaced by a company structure, and the 'crew' are now the people running the business. The central point in SPBACYIS is that you must never judge a company on its own, but always in relation to a broadly similar competitor. Equally well you will need to take into account how the competitors will stack up under different possible race conditions, that are the business environment. In using SPBACYIS, you recognise that no company is an island and the most important thing is not 'company potential' and 'track record' as such, but relative future performance on all possible race tracks.

My own 'racetrack', where I put companies through their paces may be may be found in the 'Focus Investment Group' (FIG) on the 'other channel'. IMO there is no more searching review than to put a company through a rigorous analysis like that. And fortunately a mismatch, like the Dennis Conner Catermeran verses Michael Fay Big Boat challenge, is less likely to occur on the stock market than on the water.

Recently I have been stacking up 'Hirequip' against 'Steel and Tube'.
Well, it might not have come across like that on the FIG as I was analysing them separately, but I was using the same benmchmarks.
Both companies are big players in their chosen industry and both are linked to the construction cyle with a commercial/infrastructure bias. Both have their supporters on this forum. Yet when I put both companies 'through their paces' the winner was so obvious it was a no brainer - which was not at all as I expected. And which company was the winner? Ah well, you might have to pay a visit to the Focus Investment Group to find that out!

The golden rule of SPBACYIS is that you should never judge a company on its own. A rather obvious point I would have thought when put as blatantly as that. Yet it is an idea that hasn't surfaced in this thread so far.

SNOOPY

discl: Do not hold shares in either HQP or STU, yet!

[kittydashwood]

Interesting way of looking for tommorrow's party Snoopy but SPBACYIS is shocking name.... try Regatta Theory or Investment Matchracing.


Trendy are you watching the solar developments of HMC and ENER?

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, well done. I think what you have to take into account that you might have missed is property appreciation versus rent. If a company owes debt for mortgage repayments against another similar company renting premises with a similar ammount of debt then its apples and oranges. The company with the mortgage has it financed by price appreciation or very close to it in the end. HQP against STU are completely different and cant be compared. HQP versus hirepool can be compared. Debt is either good debt or bad debt .
Good debt is mortgage debt that decreases as the property price increases. Bad debt is borrow for the things that depreciate.
SOUTHERN CAPITAL later HQP had lots of good debt at one stage when i bought in, and almost doubled my money. Sections and property that increased in value ten fold. Most of the rich people that I know got their by taking on huge potions of good debt. Most of the losers in life take on bad debt. To do your analysis to compare requires deeper insight to understand if the boats set sail in similar waters. Happy new year your old mate macdunk.
discl dont hold either but have in the past

[Lizard]

Here's a wacky one...

Forget Gann & Gartley's. Ever since I began investing, I've found myself haunted by "tickerology"... i.e. shares with similar ticker codes perform well at similar times...This is a startling new discovery, which, if I ever had time, I might attempt to prove...

While buying MFT, I also bought MET. CTL looked good to me at the same time as DTL. There have been numerous examples over my time as investing, but the worst would have to be recently when I found myself looking at STR, STS and STX on the ASX, followed by STS, SDS, SGS and SKS....all hitting the radar in close succession.

I always wonder if anyone else has inadvertantly encountered the same pattern?

[pimpit]

Talking about throwing the toys away !

perhaps we should ask him about the investment strategy


http://www.mcdonalds.co.nz/images/community/education/education_main.jpg

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by pimpit

Talking about throwing the toys away !

perhaps we should ask him about the investment strategy


http://www.mcdonalds.co.nz/images/community/education/education_main.jpg


So that's got to be Macdunk in the middle
Certainly looks like a scotsman
He's got the attention of a few junior tea ladies as well :D
,

[duncan macgregor]

MANY A TRUE WORD SPOKEN IN JEST. I think he is more of a macdonald than a macdunk.
macdunk

[shasta]

I agree Aspex re CFD's & the like, for me margin lending has provided me with opportunities to strike when funds were otherwise unavailable.

Allowing greater exposure in the good times & a high interest rate for funds on call, & during a falling market when im not active i merely reduce debt & await the next opportunity.

[Placebo]

I am intrigued as to why MacDunk would be on the lookout for new investing strategies. Is this a tacit admission that his current one doesn't work?[:o)]

[duncan macgregor]

PLACEBO, I will say to you exactly the same thing that i told all my apprentice boys over the years. WE DO IT LIKE THIS UNTIL YOU THINK UP A BETTER WAY. When you think that your way is the best, and only way, it shows that you are brain dead. Every system, and method doing anything, can always be improved even your investment methods PLACEBO.
Your old mate having a go at you. macdunk

[Placebo]

Good onya MacDunk. If you stand still you're dead right? Nice to see you still say `ouch' when you're poked.

Right back at ya

Placebo

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Notice on the 22/01/06 the market P/E were: NZX 14.9
ASX 14.9

Today the NZX P/E is 16.3 and the ASX P/E is 14.6

This clearly shows based on earnings the NZX has got more expensive and the ASX has got cheaper.

Where do you get your figures from?
How can the P/E move so much in so short a space of time?
Clearly that is a brave assertion you make.
How does this enable you to the pick individual stocks you buy and sell?

regards
Paper Tiger

[Placebo]

I have only 2 simple rules:
Rule 1: Don't lose money.
Rule 2: See Rule 1.

All that other stuff is waaaaaaay too complicated[B)]

[Snow Leopard]

aa
with the figures you quote the P/E of the NZX changed by 9.4% when the NZX50 increased by less than 2% and TEL frinstance fell.
There were no result anns to influence the market that much in that time frame.
So perhaps whoever generates the figures is working on forward guestimates or making them up.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

PT as the price changes the P/E ratio changes in relation to the last announced earnings of the company. Phoned asbsecurities they confirmed that the data was correct and can change and is updated on a daily basis, if you cross reference different broker Daily P/E ratios you will find out they are the same.

Today NZX 16.3
ASX 14.6

I cant really elaborate as im no expert on the matter. I may not be correct. But will continue to use it as a guide regardless.

Kind regards


AA

Ha, problem solved, just been into ASB website and add a look.
The current values (NZX 16.3/ASX 14.6) are correct but the earlier value for the NZX (14.9) is wrong. It is not coincidental that it is the same as for ASX.

If you request the research data on an NZX company and a company with the same code exists on the ASX then the Market P/E given is that of the ASX.
Only if the code is unique to the NZX do you get the Market P/E for the NZX.

Try it with CEN (Contact:NZX only) and MFT(Mainfreight:NZX, MRS Diversifed Trust:ASX).

regards

Paper Tiger

[Deev8]

My strategy - forget about new systems and instead re-read my copy of Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor".

[Deev8]

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

other books i have read that you may be interested in are one up on wall street and beating the street both by Peter Lynch, common stocks and uncommon profits by Phillip A Fisher, and of course The Warren Buffet Way.

I'll throw in the title of another book that I revist when I feel that I might be straying too far from sound investment principles and need to be put back on the straight and narrow path:

"Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation" by David Dreman.

[Bel]

Hmmmm. For one of my first trades i wanted to be able to exit within a short time frame with safety governing the decision rather than 'speculation'.

So i bought into BSO at 2.00 and aim to sell on june the 23rd hopefully 2.30-2.40. In short i'm hopeing peoples greed (dividends propped up by the raising oil price to offset the dropping output of the oilfields) will give me a nice return and my money back when i need it :)

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Deev8
[br

I'll throw in the title of another book that I revist when I feel that I might be straying too far from sound investment principles and need to be put back on the straight and narrow path:

"Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation" by David Dreman.


That's one of my favourites.
.

[Bel]

On an amusing note, in a military personnal based forum i like to read a chap was stating that you know when even taxi cab drivers were talking about investing in markets that it was a good time to get out before the bubble burst.

The amusing part for me was in his following post he went on to talk about the virtues of investing in the current commodities boom :I'm guessing he doesn't see the irony within his own two posts.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Bel

On an amusing note, in a military personnal based forum i like to read a chap was stating that you know when even taxi cab drivers were talking about investing in markets that it was a good time to get out before the bubble burst.

The amusing part for me was in his following post he went on to talk about the virtues of investing in the current commodities boom :I'm guessing he doesn't see the irony within his own two posts.


Have you heard any taxi cab drivers talking about commodities bel ?
I certainly havn't
It will take another 5 yrs before commodities go mainstream
,

[Bel]

Hmmm maybe you missed my point. What i was getting at is, is there any difference between taxi cab drivers talking up investing in so and so and military forum goers talking about investing [in the latest craze]?

I don't think so, but hey each to there own.

[Bel]

Neither of us has cystal balls. You say 5 years are left in this bear market, i say less than 6 months. We might both be wrong but the important thing is...

We are gambling with just our own money :)

While i know there's still money to be made in the sharemarket and commodities, i'm starting to move my $$$ into term deposits. *shrug*

[Mick100]

What I said was that it would be 5 yrs before this commodities boom goes mainstream and, IMO, it will be another 5yrs after that before there's an end in sight.

Go ahead and put your money in a bank - it will turn out to be the biggest mistake you have made in your life.
,

[Bel]

How so? I'm quietly confident that the goverments of today will not allow inflation to get out of had.
But don't get me wrong, I'm gritting my teeth at the thought of my money just sitting there bringing in such a small return. Grrrr.

The thing is that i don't see any alternative so i prefer to be patient in the mean time till i know which direction to take.

I'm simply a n00b investor taking it easy while i gain experience.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Bel

How so? I'm quietly confident that the goverments of today will not allow inflation to get out of had.
But don't get me wrong, I'm gritting my teeth at the thought of my money just sitting there bringing in such a small return. Grrrr.

The thing is that i don't see any alternative so i prefer to be patient in the mean time till i know which direction to take.

I'm simply a n00b investor taking it easy while i gain experience.

Why dont you simply educate yourself to a stop loss strategy?. Take a few trending up stocks in rising sectors and start off with a 5pc stop loss allowing the sp to rise with a more roomy stop loss when in profit. I take it you know to avoid retail and manufacturing stocks, get into power, ports,and agriculture. macdunk

[Jess9]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

The year 2005 Is almost gone with sharetrader posters devoid of new Ideas and strategies. THATS HOW I READ IT GUYS. PHEADRUS shares his chart systems, SNOOPY gives us the fundamentals, you lot contribute very little to new systems or even Ideas. I was silly enough to introduce a time line system and share it with you. The result was negativity at its peak. Has anyone out there got any new investing Ideas, or is the forum a complete waste of time. The forum seems more preoccupied by shooting people down, rather than encourage new ideas. Lets hear your system, some of us might adopt a very small part of it, others might reject it but lets know what it is. macdunk


This post explains why some people will never do any good in the markets . The fact that you think you can learn how to be a successful investor by fequenting a chat forum says it all Macdunk.

Becoming a successful investor is like anything else you do in life - you have to do the work if you wish to succeed (and by that I don't mean hanging around on chat forums all day). The main work to be done is to educate yourself. I'v read hundreds of books on investing and in some area's of investing I still have a lot to learn. I continually read backround information on the markets. I also read books which take an indepth look at a particular subject other than investing . I am working towards getting a formal university qualification at the moment.I'm doing the work and I'm enjoying some success in the markets.

I don't need to invent a new investment system because the systems that worked 50 or 100 yrs ago still work today.
,


Mick100, (or other wide readers) what are the best three investment and best three trading books you have read so far, and/or refer/go back to?

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jess9
I don't need to invent a new investment system because the systems that worked 50 or 100 yrs ago still work today.
,


Mick100, (or other wide readers) what are the best three investment and best three trading books you have read so far, and/or refer/go back to?
[/quote]
I think you are looking in the wrong place. What happened 50 or 100 yrs ago is out of date. The computer age with charts, and announcements received in seconds, makes it a different ball game altogether. The old fundamental analysis of yester year might work at the buy end of the trade, but is completely out dated at the sell end.
I can buy in the morning, then sell in the afternoon, try that 50 yrs ago. Take a look at the losses of late on this site with the old fashioned way of investing by even the most knowledgeable fundamental posters. I can borrow money to lever my position, unheard of fifty years ago. The modern army might pick up a few pointers reading old history books, thats what you are advocating we do in the investment world. Your old investment books are about as usefull as tits on a bull. Only windin ya up macdunk

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Jess9
]

Mick100, (or other wide readers) what are the best three investment and best three trading books you have read so far, and/or refer/go back to?


My favourite investment book is - Contrarian investment Strategies by David Dreman.
I would also recomend reading at least one of the Buffett books and -The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham.

I havn't read many trading books.

If your into commodities then I would highly recommend - Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers.

For students of the markets - Anatomy of the Bear by Russell Napier
(some backround in finance or economics is helpful in reading this one)
,

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

[quote]Originally posted by duncan macgregor

[quote]Originally posted by Jess9
I don't need to invent a new investment system because the systems that worked 50 or 100 yrs ago still work today.
,
[quote]

Mick100, (or other wide readers) what are the best three investment and best three trading books you have read so far, and/or refer/go back to?

I think you are looking in the wrong place. What happened 50 or 100 yrs ago is out of date. The computer age with charts, and announcements received in seconds, makes it a different ball game altogether. The old fundamental analysis of yester year might work at the buy end of the trade, but is completely out dated at the sell end.
I can buy in the morning, then sell in the afternoon, try that 50 yrs ago. Take a look at the losses of late on this site with the old fashioned way of investing by even the most knowledgeable fundamental posters. I can borrow money to lever my position, unheard of fifty years ago. The modern army might pick up a few pointers reading old history books, thats what you are advocating we do in the investment world. Your old investment books are about as usefull as tits on a bull. Only windin ya up macdunk


Macdunk, once again you are showing your ignorance and, for someone in their senior years, a remarkedly shallow knowledge of the markets.

If you ever had read some of the classic investment books you would very quickly realise that the basic principles of successful investing have not changed over time. The behaviour of individuals and groups acting in the markets is almost identical to that of 100 yrs ago. Human nature is one of those things that never change.
The only thing that has changed is the speed at which information travals.

By the way - leverage was much more readily available to investors/speculators in the 1920's than it is to todays investors.
,

[duncan macgregor]

MICK, Can i get my line and sinker back you keep the hook. Macdunk

[Jess9]

Oh you two make me chuckle...seriously now, thanks Mick100, I have some more good reading to get into, noted.

PS Duncan macgregor - I hear you, re the timeline thing. I need to look closely at adding this aspect to my investment strategy, for e.g. held NZO way too long last year (traded sideways etc for ages, after a very good rise - when I should of exited and moved on).

Thanks gentlemen,

Jess9

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Jess9

Oh you two make me chuckle...seriously now, thanks Mick100, I have some more good reading to get into, noted.

PS Duncan macgregor - I hear you, re the timeline thing. I need to look closely at adding this aspect to my investment strategy, for e.g. held NZO way too long last year (traded sideways etc for ages, after a very good rise - when I should of exited and moved on).
Thanks gentlemen,
Jess9

JESS, What you have to remember is the different styles of investment. The long term buy and hold, or the short term trade. Both have different tax implications which must be approached in a completely different way.
The long term hold my way is with fundamental analysis to buy in, then with a stop loss plus time line. No point looking at something that goes nowhere for months, time is money. I buy in with the intention of holding for as long it trends which can be years.
The short term trade is seeing the opportunity of a share over sold then jumping in, with TA indicaters and back out. Most people missunderstand the difference, and think that you should only have one system that covers all.
MICK plays the commodities market, he gives out web sites that give out up to the min prices world wide. He might bull dust on about old investment books, but if he threw out his computer he would be lost. macdunk

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor
[ He might bull dust on about old investment books, but if he threw out his computer he would be lost. macdunk


Yes macdunk, I would be lost without my computer but I don't sit in front of my computer all day. To get a good grasp of "the big picture" I think it's essential to read books. When I spend too much time in front of my computer I tend to make spur of the moment decisions which I later regret - I lose my focus on the big picture
,

[duncan macgregor]

MICK, the big picture is your home work on the potential targets. Do that then bide your time until the moment arrives. Spur of the moment decisions are not made on the spur of the moment.
Take a look at my spur of the moment decisions of late and in the future intentions. Sold my NZO options bought PPP sold them over 30pc up bought HQP will sell them before nov, then buy more NZO. I successfully traded NZO a few times made one mistake buying to high as you know, but that happens. Incidentely I might join you in your lines company in oct Which wont qualify for a spur of the moment decision. Trading and investing are two different ball games with different rules. MACDUNK

[trackers]

Reminescences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre

Great bloody book. Shows how it was done by one of the greats. I've read fairly widely, but none were as motivating as this

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Spur of the moment decisions are not made on the spur of the moment

For a while I lived in a land where such things were know as Colemanballs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colemanballs)