Nzd.usd

[Xerof]

Well, of course the rumor/news leak combo that caused the rapid turnaround from last nights lows in all pairings was the rumored death of Saudi King Fahid/ leak of German unemployment figures being better than expectation.

These sorts of 'news' items tend to surface just as the edge of a cliff is apparent, and allow the 'sharks to stophunt the reef-fish'.

So treat them as they should be treated - just another opportunity to get long USD:D:D

IMVHO of course

Xerof

[zyreon]

early tomorrow morning should be fun to watch...might just go to the trouble of getting up to watch [FOMC comments]

[Xerof]

As for FED - 25 pip increase, and IMV a cut and paste of last commentary would be the most likely outcome - ignore all the talk and fear of a pause in rate increases - IMV

Xerof

[arco]

Xerof

You could look at 6958 minor Gann support which is
presently creating a Double Bottom. A break of
this line forms a nice H&S topping pattern.

Lower down.........Major Gann @ 6835 could cause
some hesitation before dis pair (despair?) plunges
even lower.

arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof


Well, of course the rumor/news leak combo that caused the rapid turnaround from last nights lows in all pairings was the rumored death of Saudi King Fahid/ leak of German unemployment figures being better than expectation.

I thought it was a Central Bank intervention or 'a supranational' as my platform news described it.

[Xerof]

Very little bounce seen today - I've seen more out of dead cats than the Kiwi....so have re-entered short at 6988, to assist with funds legal bills......hopefully!

Xerof

[zyreon]

maybe you should hold any 70+ shorts as precious relics of the past ;)

maybe...

[Xerof]

instant gratification on those little puppies:D:D

Hope Mr G doesn't spoil the party in the morning

Xerof

yes Z think 70's might now only relate to reminiscence about music genres than the level of the currency

Appears now more certain that Elvis has left the building.....

[Xerof]

Delightfully bearish flag on the 15 minute chart
Now late for lunch bibi

[peat]

easy pips for you ....
I really need to quit this day job or get a web interface account setup :(

i collected all my NZD shorts in the .6990's ...

[zyreon]

ooh! option just went at-the-money

nice little breakaway there, maybe we'll be seeing the 68s soon??

[slam]

Well, has reached the 1,4 juncture on the WW[8D]
so, may see a bit of res around here (.6884 )
maybe:)

Have a good weekend all

Cheers
Slam

[Xerof]

Agreed Slam, just squared my short as well for 101 dalmations

Will reshort on a decent bounce, if we see one (see it's going a little lower now - no worries)

Xerof

[Xerof]

Can't resist - sold again at 6918[:p][:p]

Xerof

and something I haven't seen before - my platform confirmed the deal before they went 18 bid. Anyone been watching their platform close enough to witness such a phenomenonononon - maybe they were caught short - I don't know

[peat]

i bit at .6910
wont be too greedy tho ...

[peat]

cant believe it gave me 50 pips hehehheheheheh

[zyreon]

woke up, reached for treo... quote: 6810

nice thing to wake up to ;)

[Xerof]

Sounds like everyone had a good night:D:D

Closed short far too early, 6863, but not complaining

Better than s.e.x at times, this game isn't it. Of course, when its not, thats the alternative, so what have we to complain about[:p][:p]

Xerof

[slam]

Finally closed my shorts at 6.766[:0]
Sitting better now thanks:D

[Xerof]

good man - think it squeezes now

[Base Trader]

USD/GBP open interest is at highest level since 1999. Add the significant open interest levels in Euro and there remains the potential for correction of USD. I would still not short USD but just take note for profit taking.

UI have halved my USD short volume and shifted my stop to 0.684 - but is a nice run.

[arco]

Welcome Base Trader.
I look forward to your participation.


NZD. Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.

Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear before departing further south
to tackle Leonardo Pisano's 50 stationed at 6695.

Down down deeper and down

[Xerof]

Yes, I was one of the butterflies floating in that lower area last night from an admittedly very late and average entry, (just enough rounds to reload the colt 45 and ammo belt) but then re-entered short at 6780 in anticipation of the charge south, and may fire a few more rounds if 6800/15 area seen first. Perhaps not an ideal initial entry but the southbound battalion is a dogged lot


into the valley of death......


Xerof

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof


into the valley of death......
Xerof

weird
I quoted Tennyson yesterday in a forum regarding fatal management mistakes
hopefully this time you're quote is directed at the currency and not at us traders heheh

[Xerof]

Currency Peat currency

All defenders of stale longs.....all 21 billion of them

[Xerof]

quote:re-entered short at 6780 in anticipation of the charge south

Just squared my short at 6720, looking to resell at 6755

Xerof

[peat]

i'm short from 6765 with limit buy at 6702
stuck away from platform tho (dayjob argh)

[zyreon]

66 soon methinks

[peat]

yeh gettin close to my limits !!

[Xerof]

Yeah Peat you'll get them - a resounding rejection of the rally in both NZD and AUD

I doubt there's much petrol left in the tank for topside now

[peat]

:D
and when I set that t/p this morning I thought I was being tooooo ambitious....

[zyreon]

option profit now > 400%

^_^

[Xerof]

Zyreon, run it to expiry mate

Peat, when the market gets a bee in its bonnet, like its getting now, any level might seem crazy, but you're likely to see it!!

[zyreon]

hmmm

i was considering swapping it for an at the money option...use the profits to extend expiry.

meditate on this i must

[Xerof]

quote:20/6 - I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area,

This H&S on the daily has worked out very well with close to 500 piparoonies seen to date, if you managed to stay on board. I didn't but have captured most of it in fits and starts on the way down.

Reading the "bible" to try and determine some price objectives, clearly the ideal objective would be 100% of the whole move up from circa 5900.

BUT right here at 6690, we are at the L P Fib 50. Just wanted to point that out - make of it what you like, but maybe, just maybe we might see a little bounce.

Xerof

[Xerof]

Arco, re NZD

Major Gann wouldn't be liking the steepness of this current trend either would he?

[Xerof]

Bugger me, got the rally off 6690. Couldn't wait for 6755 so shorted at 6744. Just hope we don't end up with a key reversal, but lots of time for that to fade into oblivion

Xerof

[zyreon]

wow, that's ****ed up

[miner]

Not good but no surprise,hope people I know over there are ok.

[arco]

Yesterday

quote:Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.

Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear ...........

Just a coincidence?.....maybe not....current high 6805

It will be an interesting night with the British situation.

[zyreon]

wow, so i take it speculators closed their shorts... ran over to cable etc and jumped on bandwagon... illiquidity caused rally.

now people wisen up and shorting the rally (me included ;)).... hmm maybe back down to 6700 by morning?

[Xerof]

I remember the night of 9/11, (who can forget), and a similar pattern occurred in NZD. There was a strong rally of about 100 pips, in an illusionary 'safe haven' burst of buying, followed by a collapse of 200/300 pips, as risk aversion took effect i.e lets take our money home lads. The reason was, I believe, related to other asset markets collapsing, i.e. the DJI, etc etc and hedge funds were forced to close out profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere.

[Xerof]

I've deleted my comment re charting tools, as the situation has developed for the worse since that posting, and it would be in bad taste to leave it on the thread

Xerof

[zyreon]

true true, i was hardly into stocks during 9/11 let alone currency.

just occured to me before about the whole safe haven thing

[peat]

i was away from the screen during last nights volatility but had some sells setup so have now re-enetered short at .6732
as the gold coast guru said volatility creates opportunity.

[arco]

Added big parcel shorts at 6781 just before retiring,
........woke to a nice 50 pips...........hanging in.

[Xerof]

Nice work lads, seems we all kept cool heads and sold the spike

Added to short from 80 with a few more mint wafers at 75

Also not tempted.....

Xerof

[Xerof]

quote:Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away

[peat]

good levels to reenter short here ..... shame I cant or i would.

[Xerof]

Caution required, in my view - those 50% fib retracement areas for both NZD (0.6590) and AUD (0.7370) held very nicely on Friday, but agree - topside is probably limited.

Xerof

[zyreon]

my forecast for this week is sideways movement.

CPI on Thursday if it's too high could raise risks of an OCR increase, which may pose an appreciation of NZDUSD risk. - so this could be a barrier to further downward movement. hmmm

I think the catalyst for a move down to and past 65 will be the next fed rate hike

I'm looking for an eventual move down into 64-3 within the next few months, what are your thoughts?

[Xerof]

Sorry, been away for a while, taking little miss Xerof to airport.

Yes, a few days of consolidatory upward pressure may be on the cards IMO before the big kahuna south again.

Arco might like to tell us more precisely where Major Gann has regrouped with stout defence.... my guess would be where last weeks bombing spikes took us.... 0.6770/.6805

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Interesting to look back at the figures from
Thursday to see how they worked out.

....Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.

Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear before departing further south
to tackle Leonardo Pisano's 50 stationed at 6695.

Low of 6679 fits in nicely with Leonardo Pisano's 50 .
Spike to 6805 fits in nicely with Ganns post at 6835

The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.

I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.

[peat]

from platform news re the AUD/NZD (still relevant to this thread)

[AUD/NZD] firms above 1.1000 handle after a corrective pullback last week. This dip demand attracts corporate and funds interest close to 1.0940-30 area. Bullish sentiment remains intact for retest of last Wed's 1.1070 target. A slow grind higher while fx market awaits for a slew of NZ's data this week. ANZ jobs data and NZIER qtrly survey are first on line tomorrow, retail sales on Wed and inflation data on Thurs. NZD will make or break week. Recent soft data has seen a slowdown from its peak. Solid base at 1.0930 (01 Jul low), s-term resistance at 1.1040.

[peat]

and more...
[NZ PREVIEW] NZIER's Qtrly Survey of Biz Opinion (QSBO) 22.00GMT is one of the most important set of data regarded by the Central Bank. Biz confidence and own activity indicators are all well expected to fall, consistent with the plunge seen out in the recent NBNZ biz survey. But it will be the survey's latest update on capacity/labour constraints that will set RBNZ's policy direction and clinch whether it needs to tighten monetary policy further. Whilst the NBNZ survey is not a definite strong guide to these QSBO measures, it's inflationary components all notably softened in June, suggesting a similar easing will occur in the QSBO survey; and proving a rate hike will be increasingly difficult to be justified by the hawkish central Bank.

[zyreon]

sheesh now I know how a manic depressive feels
LOL

up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid

might just have to swap it for an August option... not too confident of a return to 66 before the fed rate hike in Aug - I have a feeling that it might just crab along sideways until then, fed rate increase will probably be the catalyst for a sub 67 move

on the other hand CPI tomorrow... and US trade, hmm time to play with the "giant 3D puzzle" (quote from market wizards book)

[slam]

Retail sales down .6%
This may help turn the upward correction;)
Cheers
Slam

[zyreon]

mmm good figure to cap OCR

[Xerof]

It's too quiet here on the threads guys - everyone licking wounds, rueing missed opportunities, reading the chapter on money management[xx(][xx(]


quote:Arco: The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.

I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.

Got into the zone and a bit more but good call there Arco.


quote:zyreon: up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid

Hope you didn't do anything rash on this one Z


FWIW, and I'll stick my gonads on the line here - we should now see 6690 level broken, in the first leg of the big kahuna - sell rallies to .6800 (I'm already short slightly under that) if seen, or stop enter at 6680 IMVHO, DYOR, caveat emptor etc etc

Xerof

[zyreon]

nah called advisor, had a chat about NZDUSD, mostly told me what i already knew, few other interesting tidbits.

ended up taking profit on that jul put this morning though, a mere 350%, looking to re-enter on a bounce - preferably somewhere around the 68 mark, for expiry in October, my view is sub 65 by then

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

It's too quiet here on the threads guys - everyone licking wounds, rueing missed opportunities, reading the chapter on money management[xx(][xx(]

FWIW, and I'll stick my gonads on the line here - we should now see 6690 level broken, in the first leg of the big kahuna - sell rallies to .6800 (I'm already short slightly under that) if seen, or stop enter at 6680 IMVHO, DYOR, caveat emptor etc etc

Xerof


well yeh , have to let my lesson digest, tho did try to make a few pips last night and today so clearly the addiction is still there... repeat the mantra after me ... greed is good ... greed is good

[peat]

the break of 0.6758 looks potentially a turn
shorted at 57

[peat]

bailed at break even
looking for stronger signals

[Xerof]

Everything seems to be losing momentum going into last sessions for the week - maybe everyones had enough already this week.

My gonads are therefore still firmly attached, all present and accounted for. (but admittedly of no practical use these days)

Still sell rallies to .6820, s/l .6850, if done resell .6875/80

Xerof

[peat]

trading again
short at .6763

[peat]

now that there is a 20 point gain I have put in a 31 pip trailing stop starting from break even.

[peat]

stopped out on the bounce at +15 - was very low risk tho, once I got the initial buffer in place....

[peat]

so why is the kiwi not following the euro down or at least not to the same degree...
its my only open position today [xx(]
i lost pips on everything last couple of days waiting for this breakdown in the Eur and then when I dont have a possie and am at work it does it.... aaaargh

[Xerof]

unfortunately kiwi plays to a slightly different tune Peat.

Remember something GC Martin once said - lagged....lol...gt & gl...

sell a break of 6734, as long as MACD has turned negative, but then it has trendline support at 25 and 15 - sell the hell out of it if it breaks 15 IMO and sell again if 6685 breaks

[Xerof]

well the multiple trendline support has held again - second support at 6725, despite 6734 breaking.

IMO - Better to wait for a confirmed break of the last outpost, which I reckon is around 6710/15 level

Xerof

[peat]

might well have some support on fundamentals i.e yield differential which is still quite high.

[Xerof]

you're right there Peat, there's been a few hundred mill to be bought for eurokiwi and uridashi issues this week, and I'm hearing the market is structured short too, so it does need demand to reduce before it'll slip away. Ironically, the best thing for it may be a huge short squeeze.....

[Xerof]

Seeing the short squeeze now - this could get nasty if it can get back up through 6805 - would retest 6870 again.

Broken out of the triangle (clearly) to the topside now, so expect some follow through, but keep a clear perspective on what Greenspan is going to come out with over next 48 hours - if he's more hawkish than market is pricing in, then the house of cards on all pairings should collapse

For NZD - resistance around 6800, stops above 6805/10, heavy resistance at 6870
still sell break of 6715....

Xerof

[peat]

Platform news from a couple of hours ago - me a bit slow tonite

A correction higher for [NZD/USD] is underway as a UK name is reported buying, this following French based bids yesterday. 0.6720 has provided very good support this week and is becoming something of a downside range parameter as it protects 0.6690 stops just below. Nzd/Usd's sell off last week came amid a sharp decline in NZ bond yields as demand far outstripped supply, however CB repo operations put into force this week have smoothed this and allowed yields to return to slightly higher levels, thus providing short term NZ$ support. The overhang of stagflation as NZ growth slows despite strong price pressures is a drag for the Kiwi however, as is the potential for a change in Govt in upcoming elections. As such sellers remain keen into 0.6800-30 and should cap rallies.

[Xerof]

Has strong resistance right here around 6870/75, but if this breaks, next resistance will be 6905, 6930, then 6990

MACD's are positive in short term charts, but still very negative in weekly, so this is still a countertrend rally/consolidation IMO

Line call on whether it peaks here....watch other pairs for confirmation. A late Friday short squeeze would come as no surprise....

Xerof

[zyreon]

yeah a bit naive to think it would go all the way down without taking a breather

looking at the calender September has a lot of events and data releases, if we got a procession of bearish events and data for the NZDUSD could venture into 65/sub65
[e.g. FOMC, RBNZ OCR, NZ BoP, NZ Ca/c, US GDP, NZ GDP, US CPI PPI, etc]

for the mean time best i get some studying done ;)

[Xerof]

Well, a half hearted attempt to break the strong resistance at 6875, only getting just above 6885.

Safe to stay/get short now IMO

[peat]

[NZ WEEK AHEAD] June's trade balance features Wed alongside NBNZ's latest biz outlook, but overwhelming focus will be on Thursday's OCR review. The multitude of soft data which has emerged over the past few wks favours RBNZ unanimously keeping it's cash rate unchanged at 6.75% when it releases its review at 21.00GMT. Focus will be more on whether RBNZ eases back on its extremely hawkish views. But this is highly unlikely; with the undercurrent of domestic and housing price pressures present within Q2's CPI, set to see RBNZ retain its strong tightening bias and reiterate that any easing is still a long way off. Mkt pricing is pricing ard a 15% chance of a rate hike next Thurs and seen implying a full 25bps rate cut in the second half of 2006.

[peat]

NEW ZEALAND] Trade deficit widened out to -NZ$522m in June vs a revised NZ$-61m deficit (piror -NZ$25m) in May, causing the annual deficit to deteriorate further to a record -NZ$5.18bn from -NZ$5.05bn in the yr to May. Figures were broadly in line with forecasts, with both exports and imports seen falling on an annual basis to NZ$2.56bn (-5.1%) and NZ$3.08bn (-0.3%) respectively. While the rate of increase in imports is slowing, they remain well above exports. A trade deficit is thus likely to persist in 2005, consistent with the current account deficit expanding to around 7.5% of GDP for the yr to June 2005.

[zyreon]

hmm, some good bearish news there.

though methinks 68even will be a barrier, held by tomorrows' RBNZ announcement

could be good for a risky play... if RBNZ does nothing and says the same ol then maybe the risk of RBNZ will be priced out... [I dunno i don't care either i have options, just casually watching and waiting for now]

[Xerof]

Despite their 'independence', the RBNZ won't change rates until after the election now...not the done thing Jeeves...IMO wouldn't have raised them anyway. Statement should not hold any surprises - still biased upside if inflation gets out of hand - any easing still long way away.

back to sleep....nurturing a short at 6830, 2 units, but its tedious stuff

Xerof

[peat]

its becoming less tedious[:p]

[Xerof]

Took half short back at 0.6776...RBNZ outcome as per last posting, but now means interest rate differential vs US to narrow when FED raises.

Downtrend still intact IMO

yawn really - action elsewhere with Ruskies and Chinese throwing their weight about in majors by the sound of it

it's getting lonely here - where is everyone?

Xerof

[zyreon]

studying

just finished reading:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bulletin/1997_2001/1998jun61_2hareddell.pdf

(yawn) - though it does have a few interesting tidbits about exchange rate forecasting - however often cedes to long term forecasting being easier than short term (well duh!)

Spending most of time on International Finance, and Banking Studies. so all is not lost ;)

[Xerof]

Selling Kiwi at .6945 if we get there, with a stop at .6970, targeting .6500 area in killer wave 5


Xerof

[slam]

Xerof
I'm getting .6985 as a top on the daily
61.8 retracment of the June/July drop, also meeting the top of the downtrend line at that point.
What time scale are you getting your wave 4 leading into the killer wave 5, dailly?

Cheers
slam

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by slam

Xerof

What time scale are you getting your wave 4 leading into the killer wave 5, dailly?



Just worked your count out, Daily?
Was that messy abc on the sub that got me[:I]

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Morning All

There is an intermediate Gann resistance above at 6958.
Should that break, there is a Major Gann level slightly
higher at 7080. (Which also coincides with a 50 Fib of
the last major down move from 16/3 high, or 786 from the
recent June high).

arco

[peat]

I'm seeing the daily MACD positive and still climbing even tho the Stochastic Oscillator is now venturing into overbought territory. Kiwi could well go higher, and I'll be looking for SO to turn downward (for it to do so twice would be good) and then more comfirmation from the Parabolic SAR

[Xerof]

Slam, yes off the daily. The level I have is actually .6955 being the end of wave 1, therefore should be top of wave 4

In terms of time frame, I would like the end of wave 4 to be 5 minutes after I sell:D:D

.6955 is a mere half spread away from Major Gann's advance party as mentioned by Arco

These markets appear to be getting very illiquid as the northern hemisphere summer gets into swing, so will be watching action around the level before taking position, in case progress is directly higher

Xerof

[Xerof]

quote:. ** NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR/US DOLLAR - MEDIUM TERM VIEW **

August 5th,.6895 -- Kiwi's probably undergoing broad corrective recovery

back toward the .7000 Resistance lvl then the mid 7100's,before Reversal


Peat, your lady at Jinxedbank and TRL must have been at the same party:D:D

[peat]

yeh, drinkin from the same punch bowl i guess

she added her comment at the end of a peice about the CNY reval
"Furthermore, I expect a renewed upside potential on both AUD and NZD - as exponents of the commodities currencies. The Chinese revaluation will hardly put a damper on exports. Therefore, the demand for commodities will not be affected; it may even increase, as a result of rising Chinese purchasing power. Consequently, I expect AUD/USD to return to 78 and NZD/USD to return to 71.50."

Certainly looks like continued $ weakness for now tho the Ozzie and hence the AUD/NZD rate have faltered.

[Xerof]

Well, smack me as you would a red-headed stepson, but I think this Kiwi is going higher.

Playing out a very large triangle on the daily chart, and is right on resistance now. Only resistance above here that I can see is at 6998, being 61.8% of the mid-June to early July decline, then fresh air until 7200 (100% fib ret)

Hmmm - thinking about it, but hate trading August....

Xerof

[Xerof]

Well, most of the sellers were being taken out as I wrote the last post 36 hours ago around 6950, and here we are, 140 piparoonies higher.

Still another 100/150 upside for this puppy IMO....if the data tonight doesn't favour USD...although lately.... who's been caring about the data[^][^]

Nice start to NPC by mooloo, but usual messy handling woes in season opener

Xerof

[zyreon]

hmm, carrying on down I see...

[zyreon]

hmm, is that a triangle on the daily?

[arco]

Hello Z

Possibly. I'm already short in anticipation.

The highest recent close at 7074 was not a million
miles from the Gann 7080 resistance figure I gave
on the 4/8.


quote:..........there is a Major Gann level slightly
higher at 7080. (Which also coincides with a 50 Fib of
the last major down move from 16/3 high, or 786 from the
recent June high)

First point to look for a little wobble - 6836 ;)

Trade well

arco

[peat]

yes... the Danes I get information from (jynskebank) have now got a short on the Kiwi (from Fri @ 0.6980) with a target of .6750. It never reached their upper target of 7150 tho....

[peat]

you were right about the 6836 mark being pivotal arco!

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes if you want a little more technical info
there could be a margin of error of about 29
pips on that Gann level 6836 (6865). So
between those figure for the wobble.

+45 as of this moment.

arco

[arco]

Currently we can see the hesitation on the Gann support
area mentioned, with a recent low of 6867 being only 2
pips from the margin or error figure I gave yesterday.

Short + 62

[peat]

a lot of upward pressure on this tonite!!

[kittydashwood]

Arco any idea about a top for this latest run?

[arco]

IMO there is a possibility of 7308-7324,
with the overall target zone between 7178-7324.

Prepare for some retracements in the run up.

[rocket science fiction]

7200 in a week

[arco]

As I mentioned on the 6th

quote:Prepare for some retracements in the run up.

I think there could be a fall to the region
6958/6965/6991 before we see a reversal north again.

Target after reversal 7308-7324 with 7202 possibly
forming some resistance.

arco

[slam]

Thinking this one may have turned early, maybe helped by the AUD turn.
See how the Asian session goes

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

would seem to be confirming its turn now.

[slam]

Taking it's time this pair.
Sitting on the 38.2 fib from the last up.
Seems to have support here
Cheers
Slam

[zyreon]

next 2 weeks are going to be interesting, very data/event heavy

the main things that have potential to move it include:
15th RBNZ -if they do something unexpected (change rates)
17th Election -if something unexpected happens
21st FOMC -if they do something unexpected (change rates)
21st Current a/c -if it 'blows out' (which probably it will...)

probably good to be warey of such dates if you're trading NZD

[BackOffice]

Todays retail sales 1.8% ahead of the expected 0.8%, seems to have had an impact.

[peat]

AUD crossrate hasnt change much tho...

[arco]

Welcome BackOffice.:)

Technically 7008 had the possibility to
act as support with Fib50 @ 6990 just below
lending a hand.


1.0986 is a Gann resistance for AUD/NZD

arco

[Xerof]

Monetary Policy Statement

no real surprises again - still have tightening bias, with an acknowledgement from our independent lever puller that, despite what the pollies are saying - that the tax cuts won't be inflationary - they will tighten again if fiscal loosening proves inflationary (IMO it will, especially if National's tax cuts are implemented)

Only curious forecast is the TWI track.....


quote: 2H05 1H06 2H06

90-Day Bill (Avg) 7.25% 7.25% 7.25%
NZD TWI (Avg) 69.50 66.25 63.25
CPI (Annual) 3.50% 4.00% 3.25%


If the TWI follows that downward trajectory, then you can be assured of a tighening in the OCR, IMO

This little gem may be the cause of the hesitation to simply hoover the Kiwi post announcement

What they seem to be implying is that NZD will underperform on general rallies of majors vs USD, and/or "outperform" on sell-offs

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Chaps

Thanks for that insight Xerof.

Technically.
The figures I stated yesterday held support.
EOD. Nice strong white candle which may be
heralding the start of Wave 3 of Wave 3 if
my EW counting is correct.

arco

[Xerof]

Arco, agreed.

An EOD close above 7090/95 would provide some comfort for a nice trendy wave 3 move towards Claxby Pluckacre:D:D

The rally from 0.6866 to 0.7123 was impulsive (5-wave), with the recent retracement to 7010 being corrective (3-wave), according to an EW mate of mine.

Stops on any longs should now be just below recent lows around 7010

Xerof

[arco]

Morning Xerof

I'm not an EW purist but I believe W3 of W3
is supposed to be a strong one.
We shall see.

http://www.genuki.org.uk/big/eng/LIN/ClaxbyPluckacre/

arco

[Xerof]

Hehe,

thanks for the geographic guidance.

Yes wave 3 should get us well over the equator, into Lincolnshire, and maybe a cleansing ale at the Marmion Arms in Haltham?

Xerof

[arco]

Xerof

Ah, the Marmion Arms

http://www.thealetrail.co.uk/images/marmion.gif

Not too familiar with that particular pub,
(its near Horncastle),but I do know the Red Lion
at Revesby quite well. (It's just up the road from
Claxby Pluckacre where my grandfather once lived).

arco

[BackOffice]

Looks like NZDUSD may stay above 0.7 for a while.
NZ$500 million Eurokiwi overnight 14/9/2005
Talk in market of NZ$3.9 billion Uridashi on way next few days
Cullen talking about higher OCR with tax cuts

[arco]

Interesting article on Stuff

'Whopper' current account deficit set to inflate further
21 September 2005
By KATE PERRY

New Zealand posted the worst annual current account deficit ever in the June year, an amount equivalent to every New Zealander overspending by nearly $30,000.


The $11.89 billion annual deficit was the worst in dollar terms, Statistics New Zealand said today.

Economists estimate the deficit equates to 8 per cent of GDP – the second worst behind a 9.0 per cent deficit during the first oil shock in 1975.

The deficit, also known as the balance of payments and measuring all transactions with the outside world, will worsen as our petrol bill swells.

"It's a whopper," said Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub. "The very large and worrying deficit reflects the imbalances facing the New Zealand economy."

The June quarter deficit swelled to $2.85 billion, $1 billion higher than the March and June 2004 quarters.

The deficit has to be bridged by borrowing from overseas and economist warn foreign investors may be leery of lending when the deficit gets too big. When that happens, the New Zealand dollar is likely to plunge.

AdvertisementAdvertisementFirst NZ Capital economists expect the deficit to peak at 9 per cent of GDP next year, far exceeding Reserve Bank forecasts. RB governor Alan Bollard projected in his quarterly Monetary Policy Statement last week that the deficit would reach 7.25 per cent at the end of next year and stay there for a couple of years. Even at 7.25 per cent, Dr Bollard said the deficit would be unsustainable.

The strong domestic economy has fuelled the spending spree, with consumer demand for cheap imported goods on the rise along with a rising petrol bill.

Growth in imports outstripped exports leading to a deficit in the goods balance of $721 million.

The value of goods exported in the quarter was $7.86 billion, while the value of good imported was $8.58 billion.

Import prices were up 1.5 per cent between the March and June quarters, driven by petrol and petroleum prices, which rose 23.6 per cent.

The deficit on investment income was $2.6 billion, as the strong economy translated into improved corporate profits and higher dividends. This in turn led to a pick-up in dividend flows to offshore owners of New Zealand companies.

The widening deficit is expected to weigh on the New Zealand dollar in the medium term, but not have a big negative impact in the short term.

ASB economist Kate Skinner said it was likely to have an impact on the kiwi dollar at some point next year.

"Rather than being the initial catalyst, a widening current account deficit is likely to exacerbate the depreciation in the New Zealand dollar caused by either a strengthening US dollar and, or, a deteriorating growth outlook for New Zealand."

The currency market was focused on the US Federal Reserve's 11th rate rise. After the current account release the New Zealand dollar initially dipped to US69.65c from its US69.79c opening but later recovered.

International credit rating agency Standard & Poor's said it was unperturbed by the size of the deficit.

"From our point of view, it is a concern and a weakness in relation to the credit-worthiness of the Government, but it's not a huge weakness because there are sufficient mitigants," Fharad Jain a director of S&P's sovereign and public finance ratings unit, said.

He said half of New Zealand's foreign debt was denominated in New Zealand dollars and of the rest, about 90 per cent was hedged.

"Also, Government financials are in a strong position, so if a high current account were to result in a currency deterioration, and as a result, impact on the private sector or the banking sector, the Government has enough flexibility to support that. "Whilst it's a concern, we don't think it's an excessive risk that will affect the rating in the immediate future."

Mr Jain said the agency was also not unduly worried about a loosening fiscal position as a result of prom

[peat]

kiwi quite shakey perhaps....
even martin@global-view commented and he has been mute for quite some time.

[Xerof]

Peat, GCM's been about, but on the pay to view side of GVI.
Has been quiet there too really and today would be his most vocal for a long time.

NZD - everyone wants to sell it...but...plenty of demand still, despite:

election mess
Current account woes
'banana republic' quote from a local bank economist, trying for the 8% depreciation in a day that the AUD took when Keating used that phrase


so we wait for something to happen.

My best suggestion given its current state of torpidity is to trade the break...and don't get transfixed with which direction that might be

http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/589/nzd4uq.jpg

Xerof

[arco]

Probably worth repeating the info here (from the Chit-Chat thread).

In the long term we have to remember NZD has come a long way from Oct 2000 when it reached a low of .3905. The recent high may be hinting at a triple top, and a fall from that on Fibonacci retracement values say of 50% would equate to a drop to circa .5700. That may tie in with the resistance area of 6/5/1999 - .5663

In the short term NZD looks vunerable if it breaks the major Gann at 6836 and it could then continue down on a Butterfly final leg to btw 6700-6800. (with minor Gann @ 6714)

arco

[zyreon]

possibly, there's a few bits of data out this week that may catalyse such a move

[slam]

This may give it a nudge down

Slam

"[22:47 NZD/USD: August Trade Balance A NZD1.105bln Deficit] Against a median
market forecast of NZD850mln. This continues the run of disappointing NZ data."

[arco]

Morning Slam

Reuters EOD - Shwoing a nice touch on the Major Gann line 6836, and looks like it could break soon. Ideal low risk limit entry just below the pivot/Gann IMO.

arco

[slam]

Hi arco
I jumped on about 2 mins before the above announcement so dropped stop to entry (6864)
Dumb luck[8D]

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Closed short
Looking for a bounce:), may not be a big one imo

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Back in again[:I]
Just in time for that nice red candle
Kiwi not getting much bounce these days.

See if I jumped the gun or not

Cheers
Slam

Edit Short AUD as well

[arco]

Slam

I've got a limit short in a bit higher up @ 6823 (Plus one below the pivot if that one misses)

Good luck

arco

[slam]

Took 10 pips and will try again[:I]
Didn't like the way the USD took a plundge against everything

Never mind
10 pips [:o)]

Slam

[arco]

Short filled at 6823 on auto pilot - now lets see what happens

(18 fib at 6834)

Tight stop

[slam]

Sitting on my hands at the moment
The USD is looking a bit week

Could end up with egg on face[B)]

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Major Gann at 6836....so if that holds as resistance technically it should be OK.

Tight stop

[slam]

Cheers arco
my eyes are peeled;)
slam

[peat]

ok well I'm short at .6828 on your heels arco
will use the .6836 + 10 as a stop point

[arco]

We got the spike to 6837 - testing my calculated Gann as mentioned at 6836. So fingers crossed Major Gann will not let us down.

Good luck Peat

[peat]

its starting to look a bit like Gann might be gone but as a measure of steel and a tribute to the volatility of our dear flightless one i will wait for 15 min candle to confirm break of that mark


today (in a more timely fashion than the previous post) from JyskeBank

quote:lone olesen - Jyskebank

Another very
important signal of further dollar strengthening is lurking in the
wings as well. NZD/USD is according to our long model on the
verge of breaking several year's uptrend with dramatic slides to
follow on the commodity currency. Until that break
materializes we do though need to see a weekly close below
67.75. In that case NZD/USD will give another boost to a
general dollar strengthening probably leading to a similar
break of AUD/USD's longterm uptrend as well. AUD/USD
does, however, need to break below 73.90 on a weekly basis
before the golden days of AUD will be over for now. As far as
EUR/USD is concerned a definite break of the previous low at
118.70 will confirm my belief that the powerful C-corrective
wave is in force leading the dollar against the EUR to new highs
not seen for a very long time.

[arco]

Thanks for that Jyske info Peat.

The Gann calc is basically a line drawn in the sand. Troops can venture over the line and retreat back. So whilst on a 15 min chart the line may look broken, on the EOD chart tomorrow it may appear as a spike through the line. I call these ventures 'scouting' parties.

I have noted a short term Bullish Butterfly that is in the wings but it did not look as if it was immediate. Time will tell with this one, but there will probably be a limited response.

arco

[peat]

out at 6852
if i was stronger equity wise i might hold but that kind of looks a bit like a break out of the 36 area to me ... tho it may end up as merely a reconaissance

i have also re-discovered recently that sleep is quite beneficial as well. [:p]
good nite.

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by peat

out at 6852

did i mention my lousy timing [B)]

[peat]

ANZ now expecting Bollard to raise rates

[arco]

Morning All

Peat - did ANZ say what the expected rise would be?

NZD. Well the troops are definately camped out on the wrong side of the line, and the last 3 days candles have formed a Morning Star (considered bullish). My stop was also hit, so I will wait to see what transpires today. The Butterfly I mentioned obviously kicked in a smidgeon early.

arco

[peat]

Bank now expecting rate rises

29.09.05
By Brian Fallow

ANZ National Bank economists expect Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard to raise interest rates next month and again possibly in December as well.

This is a change of view for the ANZ National Bank, which previously, like most other market economists, thought the next move in the official cash rate would be down, although not until later next year.

It arises partly from the National Bank's latest monthly survey of business opinion, which records a jump in inflation expectations, to an average 3.13 per cent from 2.96 per cent last month

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10347790

[arco]

Thanks Peat

I've just checked my EOD charts and the pattern now completed appears to resemble a 'Crab' not a 'Butterfly'. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the Harmonic patterns, therefore the implications of this together with the Morning Star give a very bullish flavor at the moment.

Next minor Gann above is at 6958

arco

[peat]

NZ: GDP for Q2 Up 1.1% Last up 0.6%, median forecast up 0.7%

China and Newzealand are signing a free-trade-zone-agreement..China may have to buy lots of Kiwi Dollars in the future on regular basis all the year around..No lack of natural kiwi dollar buyers

cut and paste from the gvi forum so no actual links to substantiate yet , but the price action suggests something happened!

[rocket science fiction]

this may be of interest to some of you
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10001065&sid=aLY9tG9mgvLI&refer=movers_by_index

[peat]

spotting some divergence on the MACD

[slam]

Just closed long (contrarian in me);)
48pips
Think this may still have some long in it

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

good on ya slam
the prospect of higher rates will create some buyers for our dear wee $ and this makes it a bit of a scary short... tho its would appear to be struggling at this level....

[arco]

I mentioned the 'bullish flavor' yesterday, and that resulted in a maximum of circa 70 pips for brave souls who took the opportunity.

Alas I was not one of them [V]

arco

[slam]

Went Long again last night
See how we go:)
Currently +17 (whoohoo)

Cheers
Slam

[Dazza]

i was about to short actually

im waiting for it to break pass the 6938 point be4 i long it

[slam]

Closed long for 68pips
will look to re-enter after this drop

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Minor Gann at 6958

[slam]

Long again for another go at 7.
maybe hard to crack, this week;)

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Morning all
Well got to 7 but couldn't hold

Still think it is a long but will wait till this retrace is over. Formed a double bottom late fri so may be in place

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

Despite earlier bids from a German bank [NZD/USD] has failed to gain much momentum and lies close to the base of a rough 0.6950-0.7035 ascending range. Additionally, a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to give the Kiwi any significant prop which, coupled with a recovering Usd post-NFP, suggests the lower bound could give way. While technical targets lie around 0.6925 and 0.6900, more significant losses are likely to prove difficult in the face of an NZ rate hike expected Oct 27. Immediate relief would come from a break above the highlighted 0.7000-0.7015 region, though this has put up strong resistance in the past few sessions

[Xerof]

Requires the patience of Job, but I'm looking for a retrace to 6895, 50% fib, which if seen, might be worth a small long for 7050, possibly 7200

Alternatively, sell 7050 if seen directly

Xerof

[peat]

According to the Danes the commodity currencies are an accident waiting to happen
Martin says sell anything over 70 and sooner or later you'll make money. I tend to agree.

[arco]

Yes I agree with the Danes this time, - the turn is not far away with the action playing around the Butterfly net and a polarity line assisting with resistance.

[Xerof]

The points in brackets show my reasoning for last comments, but can also see the other possibility which you may be following Arco (Blue).

Thought my forming bearish butterfly had cleaner lines.[:I][:I]

http://img433.imageshack.us/img433/9834/nzdgartleys0ox.png

Let me know if I'm way off the mark......


Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Yes I see when you are coming from. Its very tempting but I try not to get too bogged down with too many incomplete patterns.

I am trying to work more on completed patterns and then I can calculate a target, so my selection will look different to yours.

There are 2 completed patterns within this chart, and the blue box is the target for reversal.

Marry that up wuth a few confirming indicators and Ganns yer uncle and Fannies yer aunt. ;)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101105_185.gif

[Xerof]

Thanks coach, very helpful

[peat]

shorted at .6959
+20
will have to sleep tho.. so have a 30 pip trailing stop in place. hmm not much chance of making too much using that but it will minimize losses, and leave some exposure to the downside.

[peat]

theres an article in the herald re NZ interest rates
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10349785

and, from the platforms news feed :

Stops tripped under 0.6950 have sent [NZD/USD] lower in tandem with Aud/Usd, leaving the cross trapped in narrow ranges. Technical players will be eyeing the break of 0.6950, which marked the base of an ascending range, and will now be looking for further losses towards technical targets in the 0.6870 and 0.6895 areas. However, bids noted in the 0.6900-15 area will provide an initial obstacle to these hopes. Although a recent increase in Uridashi issuance has failed to provide the Kiwi with any significant prop, the downside is likely to become increasingly supported ahead of the Oct 27 rate meeting, at which a 25bps hike is widely expected. There is little on the data front, with ANZ job ads Weds, though the ANZ PMI due Thurs is likely to be the focus of significant interest.

[arco]

Repelled very nicely from the Butterfly net. My auto short got hit overnight, so I am in - boots and all.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101205_205.gif

[Xerof]

Well done Peat and Arco

Arco, is your second completed formation in the chart above an example of a gartley which mutated into a butterfly?

If so, I can see why one would need to be careful with standing as a buyer at the 'expected' gartley turn level. I guess thats why you prefer to have trailing stop entries once the first level is reached.

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Yes, most Butterflies go through the Gartley stage and that is where the danger lies. Just one good reason for care with entry unless you have other compelling evidence to confirm a possible reversal. (e.g Gann, EW, other structures).

arco

[peat]

taken out with this bounce, for minimal gain.... aaargh what a pain

[Xerof]

Surprisingly muted reaction to this little gem from Dr B


quote:The high exchange rate had also contributed to the current account deficit, by placing pressure on export sector revenues, whilst making imports relatively cheaper. Dr Bollard said the exchange rate appeared to have reached an unsustainable level. Overseas investors in New Zealand dollar instruments should also consider the downside scenario when making their investment decisions.

Perhaps the market has read through him - trying to lower currency expectations before he raises interest rates?

My formative alternatives posted 11/10 have reached the zone of decision....

Xeroff to the pub shortly

[peat]

most people are thinkin that he will raise....
but if for some reason he doesnt, and there are a few indicators starting to show that it may not be necessary, then that would be unexpected and would cause the biggest reaction
but yeh trying to talk it down does suggest hes nervous about the ramifications of ramping up the yield.

[peat]

shorted at .6954 another bite at the cherry

[peat]

got out in the + but not much..... still theres always next week.
went out for a drink and missed my 30-40 target.... oh well.

seems like this has broken the down trendline but the upside cant be too great in my opinion.

have a good weekend everyone!!!!!!!

[Xerof]

Welcome to a new week guys

This might be worth a short in the 7015 to 7050 zone if seen

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/8893/nzdusd6tv.png

Xerof

[peat]

Despite stops being tripped above 0.7010 and 0.7020 there has not been and significant pick up in [NZD/USD]'s upside momentum. Technical players though will be eyeing the break of the upper bound of a descending range around 0.6990 as the signal for a further possible upleg towards a longer term trendline around 0.7040. An increase in yield related flows has been noted today as high yielders continue to return to favour following the interest rate jitters of earlier in the month. Nzd/Jpy in particular has lifted to new 8-year highs above 80.50, with this likely to continue ahead of Thursday's RBNZ rate decision when a 25bps hike, to 7.0%, is widely tipped. The Aud/Nzd cross, however, remains stuck in tight ranges. It may need a break below the 1.07 level here to signal renewed gains in the main pair.

[slam]

Went long at 7007
Nice run sofar +32

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

take your profits quick imho

[Xerof]

Lots of resistance levels clustered overhead, between 60 and 90

Gartley formed, 78.6% retracement.....

http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/2946/nzdusd9pv.png

Sold a bit at 35, will sell again at 50

Probably what will happen is the trendlines will crack and the Gartley will evolve into a butterfly, but will give it a go[8D][8D]

Xerof

[slam]

Closed for 28pips
scalping today:D

Cheers
Slam

Edit: Typo 28

[peat]

Again here, I sold , still in currently +20
but heres an outlook from my platform, that disagrees -


[NZD/USD] has been knocked to sub-0.7000 levels in the Usd's rebound. Technical players will, though, be eyeing the 0.6985 range boundary which appeared to trigger solid gains on Thursday when it gave way. While this level holds intact such players are likely to attempt to establish new longs. While the resurgent Usd is causing the Kiwi problems, support is coming from the Nzd/Jpy cross which is currently around new 8-year highs in the upper 81s as Japanese investors seek yield. Given widespread expectations of an RBNZ rate hike on Oct 27, bidding this latter cross or selling Aud/Nzd would appear to be the best way to play expected Nzd strength.

[Xerof]

chopped kiwi short yesterday for a miserable 25 pips - didn't like the fact that only interest in the market yesterday was Uridashi buying interest.

Will look to resell before MPS though, as market has priced 50 point hike in already

Xerof

[arco]

Gann just above circa 7080 may halt further northbound progress.

[Xerof]

Seems Major Gann has enlisted a new recruit, and may be able to stand his men down [8D][8D]


quote:10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS KIWI DOLLAR AT UNSUSTAINABLE LEVEL, SHARP DEPRECIATION POSSIBLE
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS OVERSEAS INVESTORS HAVE EXCESSIVE FAITH AND SHOW IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS WOULD HOPE TO SEE GRADUAL DEPRECIATION IN NZ DOLLAR
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS SEES POSSIBILITY OF A HARD LANDING FOR NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY
10:05 25Oct2005 RTRS-NZ FINMIN SAYS CONTINUED TIGHT GOVT. FISCAL POLICY NEEDED TO COUNTER IMBALANCED ECONOMY

[arco]

Hi Xerof

It seems to have had an impact aready ......long red candle on the 30 min. I have short orders in above and just below.

arco

[arco]

Updating the Butterfly position.

The old blue box is working now as resistance and there is the Gann resistance calculation circa 7080, so I dont expect to see any break through that.

2 Butterflies now working back to back, and south bound move imminent IMO.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_156.gif

arco

[arco]

Here's a chart I created yesterday but didn't get time to post.

As you will know, the action has already entered the potential reversal area with a overnight high of 7063.

arco


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505a_202.gif

[Xerof]

The Majors new recruit only firing blanks Arco - will now have to rely on Gann's army at 80.

To be fair on NCO Cullen, he has managed to knock the tops of a few of the NZD crosses.

Xerof

[arco]

One last meagre dash north for freedom perhaps and then Gann may take NZD's guts for garters....

.........starter short on at 7070 in case NZD has the power to get near the major defences.

arco - twiddling my thumbs [^]

[arco]

Major Gann @ 7080 appears to have scared off the advance with a high of 7071.

I amended my entry to 7075 which didnt get hit, and finally went short on my trailing entry at 7053.

Currently +33

Just a weeny bit more for the Piggy Bank

arco

[Xerof]

Yeah, same here - 75 didn't make the cut. I thought it might have at least waited until this morning....[V]

Oh well, at least you've got something to maintain the interest - I'm on sidelines on everything for now, so will get back to looking for things that aren't there... :D:D

Xerof

[peat]

i find it incredible that kiwi reacted to the rates announcement like this
isnt buy the rumour , sell the fact a bit passe

[slam]

Hi All
Pete, maybe some were looking for a 50 rise not a 25, either way it was built in already
Sold some at 65

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

there was no way it would be 50 - that would be madness given the lagging effects of these policy adjustments.

[peat]

look at her climb again

FOREX : "The ultimate mind-f*ck"

[Xerof]

Now, don't be nervous... and admittedly it is a pretty nice looking Gartley, but need to keep the alternative in the frame. Red wing.

http://img464.imageshack.us/img464/8301/nzdusd4as.png

Xerof

[Xerof]

Well, so far seems to still be battling major Gann around 80 level, so for insurance have sold a sliver at 7084

Xerof

[arco]

I left the old short order in at 7075....

Major Gann we are relying on you ;)

[peat]

yes i had to short at .7085

[peat]

but it didnt get me anywhere coz b/e stop got hit lol

kind of looks like therres more life in the beast yet

[arco]

I was confident - flying without a stop. [:0] + 6

Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips. At that point you can if you wish also sell half, placing the balance at b/e. Its a guaranteed no loss situation then because even if the stop is hit you still get 25 pips average.

arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco


Peat - IMO you shouldnt move a stop to b/e until you have circa 50 pips.

i just wanted to go to bed , and ensure it didnt go bad. (Aint got many pips left to lose) Euro was looking uppish, so there was always the chance of it heading north. Note the Herald today quotes dealers suggesting it will go to .72 and even Max thinks .71 or .712 as likely tops

[arco]

Certainly shows there is that possibility on the weekly.........


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102805w_200.gif

[slam]

Morning all
Bit of a tussle going on round the trend tine circa 7020
Need this to break to continue new short, or its back up for another go at it maybe

Cheers
slam

[arco]

Updating chart of 25th Quote - ...south bound move imminent ......

Here we see the nice fall over the past week giving circa 270 pips so far with more to come IMO.

GTA - arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505butt_533.gif

[peat]

[NZ WEEK AHEAD] Mkt whispers that Gov Bollard will execute an aggressive 50bps hike by year end in light of the recent job data, will be put to the test when REINZ releases its Oct House sales/price data sometime next wk, and Sept/Q3 retail trade data are released on Tues. After Bollard's constant preaching, the housing data will be high on the Gov's radar. Relief will only come from a substantial drop in sales and house price inflation, but we expect the c/bk to become even more frustrated on the day. Meanwhile median f/c's are centered on Sept retail sales correcting for Aug's 0.2% rise by slipping -0.5% on the mth, but with underlying pace to remain robust, and Q3 volumes to rise a solid 1.4% vs 1.3% in Q2.


i've closed out gone flat

[Xerof]

Gentlemen, lay your bets....

I thought the blue formation held the most promise, but stumbled across the green formation in the wee small hours last night and now not entirely convinced. Squared up quite a few units I held from .6900,.6884,.6843 and 6817 at .6816 and will watch how this unfolds.

Any strong views out there? (I know the market seems extremely bearish, but......)

http://img398.imageshack.us/img398/7005/nzdusd7sm.png

Xerof

[peat]

are you trying to be an economist ;)
the question is : will USD strength win out over hawkish Bollard?

[Xerof]

On the one hand...I might be....

Well, flat now on Kiwi, and pleased I cut when I did.

I'm still in the bullish USD camp generally, but waiting for clearer signs at this stage in respect of the K1W1.

Xerof

ps, looking back at my second last chart posting 27/10, I got indecisive then too - about 24 hours before it collapsed[:o)][:o)]

[Xerof]

Well, both formations still in play. I think 6890/95 will determine which way this goes. If its higher, it can probably go to 6950+, but I have two lines of Gann resistance at circa 6900.

Well done to the "2011 bid" front row - Pinetree and Tana as excellent props for Helen the hooker :D:D


Xerof

[peat]

winning the world cup must have bolstered the kiwi !!

doubled up my kiwi long when it came back to my b/e point 0.6843 and closed one out this morning at .6880 , (yes a bit of a scalp but it all helps) and holding the other for a loftier target say, .6930 ish

[peat]

[NZ WK AHEAD] This wk's calendar load is undeniably heavy, and expected to be no "Thanksgiving" for the c.bk; with Oct migration data due Tues, NBNZ Business Outlook and Q3 Capital Good Price Index on Wed, Q3 PPI featuring Thurs and Oct trade data Frid. Sept qtr capital goods price index and PPI data will be of main focus to an increasingly edgy central bank, but we expect both to heighten rather than soothe its concerns over growing domestic inflationary pressures. NBNZ's biz outlook should also highlight a disturbing pick up in inflation expectations. Oct trade data ends the week off, with trends pointing to a wider annual trade deficit, weighed down by the strong NZD and surging oil prices.

[Xerof]

Different time frame from my last posting, but looking like the longer term Gartley is in play.

If it is, it should be able to achieve 6950, where AB = CD. At 6950, of course, one then might get butterflies in the stomach....

The ol' bird is certainly showing amazing resilience, especially against European currencies.

http://img461.imageshack.us/img461/8881/nzdusd7uj.png

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

Yes I have been watching that Gartley...waiting in
the wings.

First target circa 6948-6955

arco

[Xerof]

quote:it should be able to achieve 6950


FWIW

A couple of respected EW commentators are both convinced that last nights spike high to 6919 was probably enough, and that downside is now imminent.

Sell any rally I guess, with stops above 6965.

Xerof

[peat]

yes its struck me that playing this correction was relatively higher risk esp as we reached the top of it so I have been out this week. Looking to re-enter USD longs tho .... perhaps a bit late....

[peat]

[NZ] yield appetite appears endless, with another two offshore eurobond issuances announced today on top of IADB's 2 tranche NZ$642m uridashi issuance yest. Germany's KFW is seen offering NZ$200m bonds via a reopening of its 6.375% global paper due Feb 2015 for settlement Nov 30; whilst France's Cades to offer a NZ$200m 7% 2009 paper for settlement on the same day. Pricing for both is expected later today. Meanwhile japanese demand ensued in the local mkts today, suggesting more uridashi bonds are in the pipeline before year end.

[Xerof]

Yes Peat, Fibanacci timewise, there's still 2 or 3 days left for a possible further spike, if it's going to happen....

[peat]

quote:Looking to re-enter USD longs tho ....

[Xerof]

http://img456.imageshack.us/img456/2787/nzdusd2ah.png

Oh yes, and NZ current account figures released tomorrow

[xx(][xx(][xx(][xx(]

Xerof

[Xerof]

And Peat, I see we have GoldCstMarty offering at 6956 for today......

;);)

Xerof

[peat]

oh really - it was "anything that began with a 7" previously...

I havent kept up with FF last coupla days... sometimes the infinite fx blog overwhelms me. and due to not passing your test I'm still at the dayjob.

[peat]

well hes not far out so far, but the little flightless fulla is certainly showing resilience....
what time is the trade data out exactly?

[Xerof]

10.45

very resilient, against everything....

I'm short at 6952, but not too confident right now. Have a tight stop on it in case it goes to the 78.6% level (or higher)

Xerof

[peat]

i'm at work short from 6937 - no stop [:o)]
can you post the figures when they come out. cheers

[Xerof]

882 vs 830 expected so slightly worse

no real immediate reaction - wait for the pollies comments.....

[peat]

i guess , as Jack Crooks from BlackSwanTrading recently said, "its all about yield"
same as the USD huh no one cares we can never pay all that money back [?]

[peat]

hmmmmmm
well now I'm unsure with this
doesnt seem like the trade figures are having any impact , and max has changed y'days tune..... but the MACD is still looking down to me....

wot ya reckon xerof....

[Xerof]

Well, I'll respect the Gartley until proven otherwise.

Xerof

[peat]

i bailed on this short a few hours ago....6951
there must be some real flow comin in for it to buck the overall US$ strength trend

[peat]

what do you think of todays special report Xerof?

[Xerof]

Peat, wasn't attached to my email so haven't got it yet, but can guess what he's going to say - correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?

[Xerof]

Haven't been around much this week to follow anything closely - just back in today so will have a look at everything over the weekend and maybe put something up on Monday

But kiwi is ballistic on crosses..... Bollard must be poohing his pants

Xerof

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

correction over and on to retest highs around 7450?

and the rest [:0]
as suggested elsewhere Bollard chould try some other avenues.

he could actually intervene... hell , lots of other CB's do.
that would be philosopically outrageous perhaps , but maybe pragmatism should sway.

General qestion to anyone.
What other options are available to him.

[Xerof]

Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.

IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.

I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.

Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.

Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]

Xerof

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Their only tool, other than intervention is the OCR. Anything else would need to come from the Pollies. Their stated policy on intervention is to 'take the froth off' highs and lows.

IMO intervention would have to be a last resort, and would only achieve a 2 or 3 cent reaction, unless their timing was impecable.

I do recall in early 1994, when the NZD was being trashed they raised rates 2 or 3 times on the same day. That stopped the rot dead in its tracks. We saw rates go from around 4% to 9% inside 12 months, and the NZD began a multi month rally from that very day.

Maybe they could [u]ease</u> rates in the same manner, (although the timing is surely not right just yet), but it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen in 2006, if the TWI was at 80 and the economy was experiencing a hard landing.

Other than that, give the Finance portfolio to Winston[8D][8D]

Xerof


wow that would be amazing to see, several rates rises in a day!! That would make forex trading very intense. Of course no retail market then.

I was kinda wondering about the actual mechnnism for CB intervention. Guess at the end of the day hes just a trader like everyone else, cept maybe more with the goal of getting maximum impact for his spend.
And hah! , do you worry about losing as a CB. Damm I'm down 40 yards. Do you care?
How much would it take to move the Kiwi market. Surely you'd have to have a lot of courage to try to stem the Yen inflow. Deeeeeeeeeeeep pockets.

[zyreon]

-i think he'll raise it again
-do some OMO (open mouth operations)
-not intervene
-unless he raises it by 50bp

-and interest rate will continue to be a floor under an overvalued NZD... until signals of lower interest rate break the floor

+what happens when the Uridashis/eurokiwis mature? will they /can they roll them on or do they have to sell NZDs?

[Xerof]

Intervention can be very profitable for CB's Peat. I think the RBA has made a packet in the past as they are usually either selling at highs or buying at lows, and of course, they are usually right!

The BOJ has done pretty well too, but sometimes it has taken a while for their positions to come right for them, but eventually they get their way. I think last time they intervened was around 110, and it went to 104 before turning. They'll be offering around 125 I would guess.

The last major cycle before that saw them bidding at 85.00ish, then offering at 135ish - not a bad turn on a few hundred billion USD (plus forward points)

Zyreon - yes, no doubt about it, he'll tighten again, and probably remain hawkish as well.

The 'special report' Peat was referring to is basically calling for new highs above 7500, with 9000+ being an EW target[xx(][xx(][xx(]

I'll try to reproduce his wave count on my own charts and post it over the weekend (not an EW expert myself, but respect the power of the waves)

7500 is achievable shorter term I guess - 9000+ will need the USD to collapse against everything.

The Uridashi's etc may or may not roll - it'll depend on the trend at the time, but in the past they have only rolled if the currency is in an uptrend.

At the end of the day, these only work if the issuer can achieve attractive sub libor funding once its swapped back to their currency of choice, usually USD (which requires a swap curve well above bonds), and if there is appetite for high yield at retail.

Its the retail market that has all the currency risk, not the issuer, and they either don't understand the risk or don't care...yield rules OK;);)

As well as these issues, we also have momentum models kicking into buy mode as we break higher and higher levels, mainly on the crosses, real money accounts, who play 'lets squeeze the export sector' just before the start of the seasonal peak every year like a broken record, and of course finally we have the local corporates who are probably undercovered (as usual) and are now squealing.

Its a potent combo if you have maturities coinciding with an economic downturn, as well as a down-trending currency - maybe mid/late 2006 will produce that scenario, but in the meantime have to keep an open mind...

Xerof

[Xerof]

And Peat, BOJ intervention is usually done via a panel of banks, who quote them well out of market and just go smash the price. Not sure about RBA - think in the past they have been seen direct via brokers but could be wrong on that.

[peat]

well... on the long kiwi thing.... so far so good..... quite a whip up on Fri nite huh!

note that Gold Coast Martin wrote a very long diatribe on the global-view forex forum over the weekend, which has relevance. Hes still adamant the Kiwi is a sell , but then he said the USD/CAD was a long at 1.1900 as well.

[Dubdee]

The solution in my opinion is to opt out of the agreement that residential mortgage lending requires banks to put up only 50% of the capital required to lend to any corporate. This would immediately raise the cost of lending to retail without effecting corporate Sector, but aparently we have some agreeement with other central banks to abide by the Basle rules which govern such things.

[Xerof]

Dubdee, you're quite right, on all counts, but there is the issue of securitisation of mortgage books to counter as well, which takes residential mortgages off banks books anyway

[Xerof]

http://img356.imageshack.us/img356/5540/dove9rq.gif

[peat]

wot u mean by that ?
Dove?

[Xerof]

yep, although some might see it as still hawkish

probably 'more balanced' is a better description, but there's no bird to represent that:D:D

only went .25, removed overt comments regarding more hikes to come, and whilst still concerned about demand side inflation risks, the statement has a more balanced look about it by talking about downside risks to their forecasts. The forecasts themselves imply no more hikes

Xerof

[zyreon]

i read his "Whether further tightening is needed will depend on the extent to which housing and demand pressures show signs of moderating over the months ahead." to possibly mean we'll sit on our hands for a while now.

[Xerof]

quote:RBNZ puts the death knell on the Kiwi, we think we have seen the last rate hike in their cycle now.
Craig Ferguson, Senior Currency Strategist ANZ

Well, we wrote in last night’s report that the fate of the Kiwi lay in the RBNZ’s hands. Our motto is “never bet against the RBA”, and in this sense, we can extend that concept to the NZ context, and now state that we also “should never bet against the RBNZ”. One reason for this is that they own the monetary policy stick, and can often use it to follow up any public comments they make. We didn’t really consider last night the outcome for the NZD if the RBNZ hiked and then were dovish, as we really didn’t think they were overly concerned as yet that NZ GDP growth was decelerating fast enough to offset inflationary pressures. However you can see what the market’s reaction to that dovishness means for the NZD in the price action this morning.

The feature of their statement accompanying their policy hike this morning was the more dovish tone, the balance now between domestic growth and inflation risks as dictators of future rate hikes, and the rising risks of a possible hard landing. No reference was made, as in the last statement, that further rate hikes would be likely, and while the RBNZ said that at this stage no easing prospect is foreseeable, we believe that NZ rates will be around 5.5% in 2007 as the easing cycle, when it comes, will be extremely aggressive.

The implications are pretty clear for the currency. The RBNZ have used the policy stick to provide the death knell for the NZDUSD and NZDAUD rates. Thankfully we suggested last night that shorts should be entered in NZD around .71 cents. We believe those shorts should be kept and added to, as the next stop for NZDUSD is .6650 and then much lower levels.


At least somebody agrees with me:D:D

Xerof

[Xerof]

quote:7/12 - where's the door............



http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/2934/elevator5fs.jpg

Looks like a few have decided to use this instead.....:D:D

Xerof

[Xerof]

First look at NZD for the year - up the stairs again....

Multiple Ganns and 61.8% fib looming at around 70 cents, and in EW terms, perhaps in wave 4, but leave that to the experts......

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/143/nzd3tf.png

Xerof