View Full Version : Nzd.usd
lanenz
13-01-2006, 01:01 AM
And up goes the $NZ again. Most economists predict the kiwi is going to slide this year. basically i have no idea and nor do they. They have got it wrong in general on most issues over the last 2 years
Good call Xerof
.6998 capped that one;)
70 pips so far for the brave
Cheers
Slam
Short This Pair and it Just did a wee drop.
Any news that I missed?
Cheers
Slam
Just get it
"NZ Biz Confidence Falls To 20-Year Low"
That will do it
Cheers
Slam
Still holding short
Target, 61.8% of the 0.6710 - 0.7005 run, circa .6825
Cheers
Slam
Fighting .6850 again (50% fib)
Any gann levels aroung here chaps?
Cheers
Slam
Morning Slam
Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
arco
Hi Arco
Thought there may be something afoot.
Closed shorts a few mins ago, looks like it may bounce a bit here.
Hope you had a good break, it's been a bit quiet on ST lately
You may want to have a look at the JPY thread. Pete asked a question that I attempted to answer but you may be able to give some better advice
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
19-01-2006, 09:42 PM
Greetings all,
An update of the chart I posted last Thursday - progressing nicely... 200 pips to date
I have some support around current levels, but admittedly it's not looking too Flash Harry.....maybe 0.6765 might slow downward progress
http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/4372/nzd5xh.png
Xerof
Well
Had to go to Auckland last night for a gig, and as Murphy has it, this one dropped while I was out.[B)]
Still, had a AUD/NZD long so got some of it there.
Nice Chart Xerof, hope you still in.
Cheers
Slam
Textbook Gann................
From yesterday Gann .6836
Uptrend line has been broken and oscillator dropped
below centre line, so if that Gann breaks it may then
become resistance.
Gann level was breached and polarity tested as suggested. Next possible area to watch - .6714
arco
Xerof
20-01-2006, 11:02 AM
Greetings Arco,
Gann 6836 - - I can't for the life of me get that point on Esignal chart using DGL. Can you provide the 3 dates used to calc that please, to enhance my edumuhcashin
The 78.6% fib at .67665 held perfectly last night BTW, low was 6767 according to local bank reports this morning - nice...
and this is after the 61.8% fib of last downcycle held neatly at 7000 as well - I've never known the currency to behave so well[:p][:p]
I'm still bearish fundamentally (stomach pains) but would like to be flexible and see if a gartley or even a butterfly forms on the daily and weekly charts, using last nights low as a base for point C.....
cheers
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I have several DGL's overlayed on my chart and sometimes tweak the longer dated DGL formulae in Metastock to correspond with previous support/resistance points, therefore my figures might not always correspond with yours or standard DGL's.
The L1 from 5/12 gave a very accurate support point (based on Rooters EOD)
Regards - arco
Xerof
I may be wrong (and more than often are) But if you take the high at .7 being c, maybe it's a gartley going the other way.
ie we are finishing d now.
or is that what you ment in the first place
(I'll shutup now)
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
23-01-2006, 09:23 AM
Slam,
That would be an invalid pattern, as B .6702 is lower than A .6746.
It early days and as Arco has said in the past, prefer to wait for a full pattern to evolve, than try to anticipate one forming, so take my comments as they were meant - merely a possibility.
BTW -
quote:I may be wrong (and more than often are) - don't be so hard on yourself - you have done pretty well since returning from exile:D:D
Xerof
Xerof
23-01-2006, 09:47 AM
BTW, its a bit concerning that it couldn't rally with the rest of the pack during Friday night's USD sell-off.....
Xerof
Sames with AUD.
I remember on post last year that stated these 2 would perform like this.
ie. move down with the other currencies against the USD but not recover as much when they bounce/retrace etc. Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
May be the pattern for a while with these 2, especially if Japan starts pulling out
Cheers
Slam
Bollacks Hawkish again:(
Made a nice Buy though for AUD/NZD[8D]
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
17-02-2006, 11:24 AM
We seem to have ignored the ol' bird recently, so here goes....
http://img483.imageshack.us/img483/8956/nzd0sy.png
It's at an interesting junction. This Bullish(yes bullish) butterfly has met the AB=CD target, and has followed classic retracement numbers so far....
But, it is not in harmony with Fibonacci extension targets of 127.2% and 161.8%, so there seems a good possibility that this 6680 area will not hold this time round (.6680 to .6700 has been good support twice now since July last year)
I think if we see a clear break of .6680, then we should set targets somewhere between .6620 (127.2%) and ideally .6525 (161.8%) before a bounce.
Xerof
Xerof
21-02-2006, 10:42 AM
Update of last post - met the minimum target precisely at 0.6621 and has since bounced. Has it enough juice to get back to .6800 for another sell?
http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/9129/nzd3lk.png
Xerof
Xerof
21-02-2006, 10:03 PM
No juice left in the tank!! Another test of 127.2% at the moment, so if broken, the lower targets come into play, see post of 17/2
Xerof
Alpine Dragon
22-02-2006, 10:18 PM
Hmmm quite a severe sell off against the Kiwi tonight particulary at 8PM, so far down 1.5c today. Wonder what triggered it off?
Appears the Kiwi broke a significant support level a few days back and is now in freefall.
wow its still going even after last nites plunge!!!
Xerof
08-03-2006, 09:28 AM
Peat, its reached and exceeded the 161.8% target shown in my chart of the 17 Feb. I'll try and update something this afternoon.
Xerof
Xerof
10-03-2006, 01:59 PM
Peat, an update - crude and without the inevitable wrinkles, but the best I can suggest right now....
the two step in leg D is encouraging for further declines
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/3153/nzd2zg.png
Regards
Xerof
a particular distaste for the NZD seems to be continuing. Note that Aud cross rate sky rocket !!
Hi All
.6347 is an important Gann number,
so there might be some hesitation there.
But I really think in the longer term
circa .5650 area could be a possibility.
GTA - arco
Nice turnaround off the Gann .6347 as expected for circa 85 pips
presently.
GTA - arco
Good ol Helen hey
quote:Comments from PM Helen Clark, currently visiting the Philippines, are being blamed. She said the NZD was not currently weak and that falls in its value was positive for NZ
exporters.;)
That's put the presure back on
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Anyone think this is going to bounce?
Oversold on many aspect, but defying the charts as far as that goes
Cheers
Slam
The Danes have been sayin that AUD and NZD are vastly oversold and have been predicting a bounce.... she was even talking about the monthly chart...but that was about 1.5 cents ago....
In my demo trading I've had a couple of attempts at longing it, but both times my relatively tight stops got eaten.... wasnt thinking it would get hit so hard this morning.....
As they say, catching falling knives can be quite dangerous.
I think there might be some statistics out this week too which will of course be spookingly bad no doubt.
Xerof
20-03-2006, 02:01 PM
Peat, well its had a couple of wrinkles along the way as suggested, with the fine tuning courtesy of Arco, but my chart of 10 days ago still looks like playing out....ahem....then wot? he says...lol
Xerof
quote:some danish fx chick
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
are being slammed right
now due to heavy stop loss
buying of EUR/AUD and
EUR/NZD. I consider it
only a matter of time before
the commodity currencies
will revenge themselves and
start climbing against the
dollar.
have longed again at 6240 (almost your target Xerof)
Alpine Dragon
21-03-2006, 08:56 PM
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/economics/exchange/nzdusd.htm
BackOffice
24-03-2006, 05:58 PM
Does anyone think its time for a small bounce to say 64-65c USD
[|)]
quote:Originally posted by Alpine Dragon
It's days like this that you hate being right. A month ago, I said that it broke significant support level and that it was in free fall, and in free fall it is... Infact you could almost call it a crash.
Although I managed to get the bulk of my savings into overseas investments in accordance with my plans in the past year or so, I Misjudged the potential impact/severity of this move and it still caught me by suprise
IMHO, this is clear indication that the relentless bull we had in the NZD currency is now over and now we are in a NZD bear.
http://www.nationalbank.co.nz/economics/exchange/nzdusd.htm
Hi BackOffice
just a thought, but .5934 could provide some support (May 04 low)
In unfamiliar territory atm and all I have is a tight stop following it down;)
AUS/NZD top at 1.1784 will fit nicely with that.
Monthly charts are ominous
Would be about right, the last time it was this low I was off to Aus for a break, and I just booked some tickets for me and Mrs Slam[}:)]
Any other thoughts out there in Gann Land;)
Cheers Slam
PS: just back from a gig, not just sitting up all night[:o)]
Hi All
Flat as she goes atm. Finally closed. (Same with AUD/NZD long)
Longest trade I've had:)
Still think .5934 possible but other things to watch for a while.
Will wait for a bounce for round 2 maybe.
Cheers
Slam
pimpit
28-03-2006, 09:42 AM
good time to convert back to NZ?..
converting to pouds at 71c was the best ivestment I made this year so far.
Hi Pimpit
Depends on your trading time frame.
By the sound of your post, you are not using a trading account, just exchanging currencies, hence I gather you are long term.
If so imo, the kiwi has a way to go yet, against the USD anyway.
(don't follow GBP/NZD)
In the short term, it may come back up a bit, but I believe it will be a short lived bounce.
Others may differ from this theory
Any other points of view out there?
Cheers
Slam
And there starts a bounce[8D]
.6250ish first stop on the daily A
.6140ish on the Hour(a)
Cheers
Slam
Edit: thought I'd add the hour;)
BackOffice
28-03-2006, 05:00 PM
Not ready, just yet, to close my NZD shorts. More news later in week. But yes looking like the bottom of the curve for a while anyhow. Big action expected next year with the Jap house wives getting out, boy are they going to be out of the money with their bonds.
Dazza
28-03-2006, 11:51 PM
sold NZD at 6102
awaiting the anticipated OCR tomorrow.
stop at 6121
ill place a limit at 6076 :P
wish me luck
btw peeps, how do u register for like announcements in interest rates, economic data etc,and where u get em from?
nzherald? thats usually delayed news..
Well
close to the hourly and then down again for a new low
(Good call Dazza;))
Will stay out and see where this settles
.5934 may still come into play yet
Cheers
Slam
Dazza
29-03-2006, 09:45 AM
ah yes cool 50 bucks AUD made :P
yes i was tinking of not putting a limit in, but arcos words always stayed in the back of my mind.
take profits while u can in fx :D
Alpine Dragon
29-03-2006, 06:54 PM
I see that it's continuing it's relentless crash.
Dazza
29-03-2006, 10:07 PM
yes made another 40 pips when i was at work
had a limit at 6023
not bad at all :P
Base Trader
30-03-2006, 07:23 AM
Resistance at or about 0.60. Looks like the shorts tried to run .60 but found buying.
My guess is that it will do it tough to breach 0.60 in any meaningful way without some more fundamentals shaking the tree. The bad news will come and I do not think many have an appetite to be long in Kiwi at the moment.
BackOffice
04-04-2006, 01:52 PM
Is this the bounce or just an upward leg to greater highs.
Any charts Xerof
seriously looking like the bounce was dead cattish....
Xerof
05-04-2006, 12:13 AM
Backoffice,
Its trending, and agree with Peat regarding cats bouncing.
There should be quite a number of dead cats littered along the way.
Here's a weekly chart for the bigger picture...the Dynamic Gann Line has held it at 60 cents so far...but don't count on it forever
http://img93.imageshack.us/img93/3677/nzdw5yr.png
Xerof
Dazza
05-04-2006, 12:55 AM
on my cmc platform
regarding news, some commentator said 6080 is prooving to be resistant?
we are reaching that... trigger ready for shorting but... but ...
BackOffice
06-04-2006, 01:24 PM
Next door called there cat Thud as it did not bounce when it hit the wall.
Maybe this is a thud to .61 rather than a bounce to .63-.64
Is there a W forming at .6165 and what would it mean[?]
i thinking that theres a reasonable possibility of the com-dols showing some life at this stage, and these will possibly drag the beleagured kiwi up with them , but it will , or at least should , underperform relatively to the others over anything other than the very short term.
Hence I am liking the Aud/Nzd long.
Drunk_Russian
14-04-2006, 10:28 AM
Interesting to see the dollar get as high as .6240 yesterday. Will it drift further upwards in the next couple of weeks?
Had a nice entry order BUY executed at 1am on the 13th @ 6125 when announcements were made in the US. The price literally spiked down to 6125, and shot back up again. Closed @ .6200
Almost makes up for all the times I've been too greedy and set an order too low/high over night , and wake up to find the price comes within 5 pips of said order and races off in the other direction! =)
BackOffice
18-04-2006, 06:42 PM
Drunk_Russian
I know what you mean, i though the bounce was over but have taken a 100 point loss, "bugger".
I am starting to look at the possibility of this turning bearish.
theres divergence on my 3hour graph and I'm seeing a triangle form on the hourly since May 4th which it may have already started to break on the downside.
Not gonna bet the farm on this , it could just be consolidating, but have sold one at 6417 with a ridiculously tight stop at 6435.
Hi Pete
Tend to agree
just below the 38.2 Fib from Dec/05 to April/06
and the AUD/NZD still putting presure on the Kiwi.
Tight stop though bud:)
Cheers
Slam
Nice call Pete:)
Cheers
Slam
I dont really know now... so am closing and taking the +80 which was a good reward for risking 18.
I'd call 80 pips a good ST trade
starting to look like theres more for the taking now. if it breaks .6315 I will probably be convinced to continue shorting.
aand I did +50 now
although it seems the Kiwi is tracking the Eur and could of course be dragged up when that continues its climb, my reasoning is that the Kiwi will get punished a lot harder in any corrections.
altho fundamentally the kiwi has some major issues... this upside tick happening now (5:30 am) makes me wonder if we might head back up to 66-67 which would complete some sort of bearish gartley. i.e we are at C now.
Hi All (or anyone);)
Been short the Kiwi for a week now, started selling at .6212
Looking for around .57
Any other views
Cheers
slam
Hi Slam
Looks a bit like a possible H & S (going back to late 2003).
Bit scary for the NZD if this is the case.
Expect a bit more fall and then perhaps a test of the H & S line.
Regards to all
- arco in QLD - blue skies and 23 C
Hi arco
Thanks for the reply.
Stopped out of FOMC bounce.
Still picked up a nice load of pips:)
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
Was on Sunshine Coast a few weeks back, wish I was still there.
Have a good one
Cheers
Slam
quote:Originally posted by slam
If H&S plays out, we are back to 71[:0], is that correct?
yeh thats what I was thinking when I looked at it, but I didnt have the guts to say it heheh.
6430 - 5930 = 500
5930 + (.68 x500) = 6270
time for Kiwi to reverse soon?
Hi Pete
Hope so, looking to reset longs on AUD/NZD and shorts on NZD.
Looking a bit strong atm
Wait for some more signals me thinks
Cheers
Slam
zyreon
20-07-2006, 07:00 AM
lota volatility over past 24, CPI in US suggests another rate hike but fedspeak suggests a pause in august.
I'm back in the game now but havnt pulled the trigger yet -two possible trades i was considering made money... -_-
looking on the longside going into next week.
crazy sh*t - I'm inadvertantly long (for real not demo) from a forgotten stop that got triggered
I'm not completely au fait with this new CMC software, if I'm not careful I'll be learning the hard way. but kiwi has been looking strong these last few days.... doesnt seem to go down when USD climbs but goes up when Eur does. someone was mentioning more Uridashis the other night on global view forum...
roddy
20-07-2006, 10:02 PM
Hi Peat
this is my first post on this forum,it is a great site. checked out cmc web site the other day,no commission and low bid/ask spread has to be good. kiwi currently.6192
cheers rod
I'm not finding the software very good tho on a number of fronts... may review later after I talk to them about it first and will post in another thread.
roddy
21-07-2006, 10:13 AM
hi Peat,
will look forward to the review! today looking to short the flightless bird @.6250 with stop @.6280
have gone long the euro 1.2627
yeh in my demo system i have a kiwi short from .6252 as per my previously posted thinking but I've screwed it all up in real life duh, all bailed now tho. One guy on global-view forum used to say the kiwi isnt a good day trade.... tend to agree.
roddy
21-07-2006, 02:03 PM
my order hasnt been filled yet and yeh from my limited experince the kiwi doesnt always seem to range trade well at times,it would be interesting to know how many pips it does average per day, i remember somewhere reading the Euro does 90 pips
zyreon
21-07-2006, 05:42 PM
from my experience the CMC platform is crap. Oanda has the best platform, very visual and nice features such as the moveable lines for tp/sl.
well first trade went OK not great but ac bal up to 2100 from 2000. Put myself on probation from real trading - only been game trading for the past 6 months, so easy does it.
focusing on the kiwi, will be researching on sun etc so will post some links and commentry then
miner
21-07-2006, 09:48 PM
EUR/USD is good for trading.
zyreon
23-07-2006, 02:52 PM
Well it's going to be an active week for NZDUSD:
NBNZ Business Confidence
Trade Balance
RBNZ rate review
building permits and money supply
on the technicals it looks to be maintaining the upward trend, hasn't broken the trendline yet,
i'm approaching this week with a slight bullish bias, looking for a little more rangebound activity, expect tough talk from bollard at the rate review re 4% inflation, not sure what to make of the other event risk though.
any thoughts?
zyreon
24-07-2006, 10:07 AM
[quote]quote:23 Jul 2006 22:00 GMT
=CENTRAL BANK WATCH: RBNZ To Stand Pat, May Delay Easing
(This story first ran Friday)
By Shri Navaratnam
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may delay the start of an easing cycle well into 2007 as a surge in oil prices threatens to keep inflation high, despite a slowdown in economic growth.
Economists expect the central bank at a regular policy review next week will maintain short-term interest rates at a high level. Some say there remains a possibility of a rise in rates if an increase in domestic gasoline prices ripples out and boosts prices throughout the economy.
For Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard, the dilemma is similar to that faced by other central banks. Rising oil prices are encouraging tighter policy but at the same time threaten to slow growth.
The RBNZ lifted interest rates nine times and by a total of 2.25 percentage points between January 2004 and December 2005 to cool pricing pressures driven by red-hot economic growth. Even though growth has now peaked, the central bank is keeping policy tight due to the oil-led inflation surge.
Data issued this week showed that the pace of consumer price increases galloped to a 16-year peak in the second quarter. The CPI rose 4.0% from a year earlier, well above the central bank's 1%-3% tolerance range.
Following the data, financial market participants quickly priced into short-term bank bill futures a 50% chance of a rate hike by the end of this year. That chance, according to bill futures prices, has since fallen back to 25%.
All 13 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expect the central bank to keep the Official Cash Rate at its current eight-year peak of 7.25% at its six-weekly policy review July 27.
Looking ahead, they ascribe a 15% chance of a rate hike occurring over the next six months, up from 5% just before the latest inflation numbers.
As to when the central bank can start to reduce interest rates, a majority expect the easing cycle to start in March 2007, or later. Previously, they had expected a policy easing in early 2007.
"The RBNZ is in no position to ease interest rates at present, as it guards against the possibility that current high headline inflation will spill over into wage and price setting behavior," said Anthony Byett, chief economist at ASB Bank.
"By the same token, a higher OCR seems unnecessary (in July)...because the RBNZ is also trying to manage a gradual slowdown in New Zealand growth over 2006, assisted by higher global interest rates," Byett said.
Risks Of Second-Round Effects
New Zealand's economy started to slow from the second half of 2005 after over five years of robust growth, which was fueled by a surge in Asian immigrants, a housing boom and a strong labor market.
Production-based gross domestic product in the three months ended March 31 grew 0.7% from the fourth quarter following a 0.1% contraction in the quarter ended December.
Treasury forecasts annual growth will slip to 1% in the 12-months ended March 2007, from 2.2% a year earlier.
But to the consternation of the Reserve Bank, inflation pressures have remained persistent, underpinned by resilient housing and labor markets, and record world oil prices.
Gasoline prices in New Zealand have rose by 32.2% in the second quarter from a year earlier, which was the biggest rise in 21 years.
That leaves economists and analysts focused on Bollard's statement, which will accompany the policy decision next week.
"We think that the focus in the statement will again be on the avoidance of second-round impacts on wages, prices and inflation expectations that might stem from the current period of high headline inflation," said Darren Gibbs, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.
In June, Bollard highlighted his concern that higher inflation could become entrenched and issued a subtl
roddy
24-07-2006, 11:36 AM
zyreon agree with your comments regard kiwi, personally would like to see close or sustained move above .6280 before committing to range trade upward trend,your comment slight bullish bias about sums it up for me too
roddy
25-07-2006, 02:16 PM
short the flightless bird .6245,also the euro
zyreon
26-07-2006, 09:57 AM
so far so good, taking a punt on the trade figures?
from the looks of new reports on global lvl they think its gunna be improved, but all the local reports forecaste it to be slightly worse... maybe i've misread things but hey we'll see.
Though even if it does tank on the release it will probably be somewhat underpinned by the RBNZ tomorrow so i'm thinking keep my shorts on and then if it falls take profits and maybe reverse once it settles down.
zyreon
26-07-2006, 11:28 AM
well lucky i took half my position off before the figures
roddy
26-07-2006, 11:43 AM
Hi Zyreon
imho think daily and weekly charts are bearish until it breaks .6280 and then.6450. so after reading Arcos {read it for free} will be bearish in a bear market and bullish in a bull market.
I had a punt on trade figures as well and had a
tight stop so no damage done.
Well, its looks like the R shoulder of the H&S may still be forming, and who knows, 6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Anyway for now, check out the nice looking Flag on the 15m.
arco in QLD
kittydashwood
29-08-2006, 09:10 AM
Have we seen a shorterm floor for the NZD?
zyreon
29-08-2006, 03:51 PM
looks like it.
market doesn't expect any more hikes from FOMC, and market also pricing in small chance of RBNZ hiking rates again... and not lowering for a long time. And with no evidence of a hard landing any time soon in NZ the kiwi looks fairly well underpinned
(which is rather irritating given that i bought a put a few weeks back)
roddy
03-09-2006, 07:51 PM
http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/9176/noname1nf6.jpgwas wondering if anybody could comment on whether this is a valid gartley or not, chart is of NZ/US and if so probable outcome
cheers rod
cheers roddy
Hi Roddy
This is not a valid pattern because Point C on a Gartley or Butterfly cannot be lower than point A.
However try starting with X at your point B, and see what you come up with........ :)
Regards
arco in QLD
roddy
04-09-2006, 09:27 AM
http://img326.imageshack.us/img326/5553/noname4ns0.jpg
Hi Arco
thankyou for your reply!
This is what i have come up with, if Point B happens and we see a reversal to lower levels then the third leg will start to form? At
.6560-.6570 point B is a 50% Fib retrace level of .72-.5930 level, is also a previous support level possibly now becoming resistance
At this early stage cannot be sure that C or D will form,but there is quite good proability that the Kiwi will head lower from here!
Cheers
Roddy
Hi Roddy
X - Correct
A - Correct
Now convert your B into D and see if you can
find a Butterfly.
Regards - arco
roddy
04-09-2006, 02:35 PM
http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/9361/noname1xb8.jpg
Hi Arco
Its quite beautiful,i should of coloured it purple or something!
Quetion- to have an ideal butterfly/Gartley reversal setup should D be extended to the 161.8 level or is that not a concern?
Cheers
roddy
Hi Roddy
Well done, I can see you will soon become an
experienced Butterfly spotter. :)
Butterfly set-ups often complete btw 127-162, so
thats where to generally start looking for other
clues that may confirm a possible reversal.
Good netting
arco
Xerof
04-09-2006, 04:10 PM
Roddy/Arco,
It's currently toying with the 127.2% fib of XA, but the formation itself is not particularly harmonic, CD having well exceeded AB (which was around 6490, a 138.2% as well btw)and BC was only 38.2%
FWIW, I like to look for clusters of resistance, drawn as extensions of previous retracements, as multiple fibs are more powerful.....
0.6620 area is a 138.2% and a 2.618% cluster zone, whilst the 0.6735 area holds a 1.618% and a 4.25% cluster, using the XA leg, as well as the previous two significant retracements BC and the small retracement within CD.
Interestingly, a bearish '3 drives' formation looked on for a while, but this was blown away late last week on the break of 0.6500.
So for what its worth, my pick is not to stand in the path of the freight train just yet, assuming it can conquer this 127.2% level. The next layers often act as magnets as well....
regards
Xerof
Xerof
04-09-2006, 04:19 PM
Having said that, I recall Arco mentioned that Major Gann and his merry men could be lurking around this 60/90 area - any word from the frontline Arco?
Corporal Xerof
Hello Xerof
Good to see you posting again.
Agree, the Butterfly is not perfect in its harmonics, however the previous Bullish models* harmonics were also in disarray, so it's probably worth keeping an open mind with any odd shapes for their possible potential. IMHO the key is to be aware of their exsistance, but only act once other factors fall into place.
FYI Gann is still stationed at the figures mentioned, so that is one additional point to consider.
*That particular formation has given around 630 pips currently, so as I say I never totally discount imperfect patterns.
GTA - arco.
Xerof
04-09-2006, 06:31 PM
Yes agreed....
For clarification here are the two specimens being discussed.....
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4393/nzdci8.gif
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Thanks for the pic.
Just thinking that the yellow pattern probably falls into the CRAB* harmonics catagory.
*The CRAB is a harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2000. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the harmonic patterns. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg.
Regards - arco
roddy
05-09-2006, 10:33 AM
Hello Arco/Xerof
i am finding your posting quite challenging and have been using my calculator to work out the crab formation and how it relates to the nzd.its not hard to draw fib levels on metastock,but not so easy when faced with numbers like 2.24,2.168
math has never been my strong point so please correct me if i am wrong but to manually arrive at 1.618 extension of the XA leg, i took X-A times the diference by 1.618 and added that to point A
As follows.6440-.59300=.051 * 1.618=.0825 +.59300
=.67551
so to extrapolate to have a harmonic pattern do you mean that each leg has to be in the right Fib proportion to each other,whether its a Gartley/Butterfly or Crab so in the crab but not the other patterns
the BC projection leg would have to be one of the following numbers * the differnce of BC (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) as per your post Arco and should be close to .67551 area
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Hi Roddy
In Metastock you can add any Fib numbers without difficulty.
Right click for properties/retracement lines - and then add in value lines you requre.
However remember 2.24 converts to 224, and 3.618 to 361.8, etc
Now you should see the PRZ areas/confluences.
regards - arco
roddy
05-09-2006, 12:44 PM
Hi Arco
thanks you for that Arco, will make things a lot easier!
kiwi moving south currently trading .6473
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Xerof
05-09-2006, 10:35 PM
Don't fret, it's likely to only be a minor retracement.....under 64 cents would probably change the picture somewhat
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/9274/nzdlw0.gif
Xerof
17/8....6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Good to see Mr Gann managed to repel the invaders first advance and in doing so handed us circa 140 pips on a plate.
Thankyou once again Mr Gann - keep up the good work.
Your pal arco in QLD [8D]
roddy
08-09-2006, 01:22 PM
Heres something a little different,basic theory i believe is price is supposed to remian within outside lines and have a preferance for the median /middle ground.
will be interesting to see if it can hold the .6420
area with Fib just below as well!
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/6902/noname7bi8.jpg
cheers Cadet roddy
roddy
08-09-2006, 06:58 PM
Placed a long trade at .6420 tading off the 15 min chart, thinking it had found support and Andrews Pitchfork had held only to be stopped out very quickly at 6390 something after Cullen comments!
USD seems to be strong across the board today,
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy/Xerof
IMHO Pitchforks can be used selectively, but they should be confirmed using other signals for major benefit.
Now that manky ol' Crab is still giving off its bounty with a max 220 pips.
Are you still holding long XEROF.
Good weekend all
arco in QLD
Xerof
10-09-2006, 12:29 PM
No -I haven't had any positions in Kiwi for some months Arco. And yes, the Major indeed put up a particulary ferocious defence around that 6560/90 level - the enemy seems to be running for the hills at the moment [B)][B)]
regards
Xerof
Re mentioned recently on the Butterfly/Gartley thread...............
"Looking pretty strong at the mom.....depending on ones stance, an EOD reversal pattern btw 6600-6720 on the daily might be the catlyst for a nice short IMO".
6658 was the high this week and the weekly chart has printed a Harami pattern, with the EOD looking like it might complete a 3 Falling pattern next week.
Watching this one closely now for the possibility of a confirming reversal signal.
regards - arco
roddy
24-09-2006, 06:21 PM
Hi Arco
Yes i have been watching this pairing as well and picked up a few pips on a straddle on last weeks annoucement,which never followed through.
also of interest is standard error channel,though i suspect its not a stand alone indicator each time it has hit the upper extreme it has retraced significantly further adding to the likehood of a reversal
it appears this butterfly might be double brooded?
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/3949/noname03oc9.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
I don't personally find the SEC of any use in forex trading - it may be of more use in share trading where volume is available.
My charting tip - keep everything as simple as possible.
regards - arco
Hi All
Worth watching closely now....we are hovering within a potential reversal point IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/092206.gif
regards - arco
hope no one jumped in prematurely.... up 3/4 of a cent today....
I read on the global view forum a few days ago when quite a few were recommending shorting NZD just after the trade deficit figures came out and one of the older wiser posters said 'shorting the kiwi is fraught with difficulty'. I thought at the time that it didnt go down very far after that figure which struck me as being quite bullish
I might give this a go (short ) at 6720 level where we hit the 61.8 fib retracement from 71 ish.
Hi Peat/All
No one should have jumped short yet as there has been no confirmed reversal signal.
The chart I posted shows only the potential reversal zone to be aware of.
I have not entered short yet - still watching for that magic signal.
Regards - arco
roddy
25-09-2006, 06:14 PM
Hi Arco,
i welcome any advice, thank you for your tip Yes i will try to keep it simple,
my comment about being double brooded was referring to the red admiral butterfly which can reproduce twice in the one cycle, just a little bit of rhetoric there; so for my future reference is this butterfly still valid after already having one retracement at at 127 ish
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/6633/nonameadc2.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Yes, I consider the Butterfly still in play. The reversal at 127 turned out to be just a short term profitable part of the normal wave action, but we can now keep our eye open for another nice reversal signal.
There is a Gann calc circa 6720 which could come into play (mentioned a few posts ago).
Regards - arco
Xerof
25-09-2006, 08:27 PM
the 161.8% target zone is looking very attractive at the moment. Looking for signs........
Xerof
i got a bit carried away with Fib over the weekend and drew up this
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/1981/nzdusd24092006vt5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
I wanted to show where I was drawing the fib from, for clarity and critique.
the fib time was an extra touch which almost matches the lows... perhaps the next low will be just after that final vertical line
Overhead Gann as mentioned seems to be causing some hesitation
NZ Produces Another Trade Deficit Shocker
26/09/2006
NZPANew Zealand's trade deficit in August almost hit a billion dollars, Statistics New Zealand reported.
The deficit came in at $961 million, well worse than the $780m economists had forecast.
The monthly shortfall pushed the August year deficit up to $6.547 billion, slightly down from $6.735 billion in the July year but again worse than economists' forecasts of $6.4 billion.
i thought we had a trade deficit figure for the quarter a few days ago.
arco - seeing as your online how close are we getting to what you would call a reversal here now? .... already down 50 from the rather perfectly achieved 6720
Hi Peat
Current action appears to be in the process of forming a possible Dark Cloud Cover or even Bearish Eng pattern on the EOD, - either of which would give a powerful signal.
And yes, Mr Gann came up trumps again for top picking/pickers, (as mentioned circa 6720)....so a cheeky short at that has given a nice bonus.
regards - arco
roddy
27-09-2006, 07:50 AM
Hi Peat/Arco
Just came across the wire/its all good for the current short!
Comments from RBNZ"s Cullen have taken the legs out from under Kiwi. He said
that the central bank may keep rates on hold through 2008 and that the market
took a harder message than intended from the monetary policy statement. GDP
probably fell in Q2 from Q1, he said. Kiwi has slipped to 0.6610 from 0.6660 on
the comments, carried by Bloomberg. Most provocatively, he says kiwi may fall to
0.40. Tell us what you really feel, Mike. 0.6650 is solid resistance on
rebounds 0.6570/75 is support. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com
funny how news that impacts always coincides with Fib/Gann.... ;)
Altho its beneficial to NZ and its what the RBNZ want I'm surprised that the Minister is sticking his beak in re rates. I thought the Bank was independent.
Thanks Roddy
Ah Peat....thats Quantum Interconnectedness.
Physicists and even arco and Major Gann have come to realize that the universe is interconnected in much subtler ways than had once been thought.
The interconnectedness of the parts of the whole allows us to realize our/the oneness with all things.
arco
profile
27-09-2006, 09:51 PM
No fewer than four articles discussing the overvalued NZ$ in the Asian FT.
Micheal's mug on the front page and lead article in the Companies and Markets section.
A lot of marketing going into talking down the dollar on his wee OE.
and now the Danes (jyskebank) have a go - from todays report by Lone Olesen
Bad evidence keeps piling up against the NZD. The latest
surprising rise due to the new rather hawkish stance from the
RNBZ is thereby starting to loose its magic.
Bad trade figures, another historic high reading on the balance of
payment deficit (9.4% of GDP), and furthermore a VERY
aggressive finance minister - Mr. Cullen - constantly trying to
pressure the NZD/USD by verbal intervention, finally made the
yield addicts surrender in the first round.
History does'nt repeat - but it often rhymes - keep that in mind as
the present situation brings memories of last year and not least the
start of 2006 alive anew. A period where NZD after the same
economic hardship, and a just as aggressive Mr. Cullen fell off a
cliff, which took many market participants by surprise.
In the wake of Cullen's latest appearance, where he bluntly
revealed that a NZD/USD around 40.00 wouldn't surprise him at
all, the cross is now steering towards troubled waters. A definite
break/close below 65.50 would open up for a revisit with our first
target at 64. Be aware though that once 64 gives way to the
downside, we might be in for a new levels below the latest bottom
at 59.20.
NZD/USD looks like an accident waiting to happen. Best skip the
presumably attractive yield pick up, as it could come at a much too
costly price.
roddy
02-10-2006, 09:55 AM
Hi Arco/All
Have you any analysis Arco on how far the current short on the Kiwi will extend to.
as you will be aware it has fallen through the 127% level,would it be reasonable to assume we could see 100% fib level .6425 if it breaks 6520 which is current uptrend line
i have two shorts in play .6675 and 6592,
I ask the question because i tend to exit trades to early on hourly charts etc instead of letting my profits run!
A good recent example is i went short gbp 18939
and exited with only 39 pips missing a further 200 pips.
cheers cadet roddy
I was thinking yesterday that kiwi would become a sell again at .6635 (it reached .6620). Targets unknown but 30-50 pip trailing stop is one way of approaching it.
Im currently flat tho.
Hi Peat
Waiting for a reversal signal to confirm a possible EW1-2
regards - arco
What do you guys make of this one. Rising wedge on the hourly ready to break?
seems we're all playing it via the AUD huds.... which is going a storm!
Cheers peat.
Re: AUD/NZD, looking pretty good alright. I have a small long on from Wednesday, thanks to you guys and you're informative posts.
From ANZ
NZD/USD May Test US$0.6880 If RBNZ Hikes
NZD/USD entering consolidation phase in preparation for extension into 0.6680-0.6720 zone on next week's expected central bank rate hike, says ANZ Bank; pair last 0.6638 vs yesterday's 0.6624 local close. If RBNZ confirms market expectations by hiking rates, continues with hawkish line adopted at Sept. review, NZD/USD may rise as high as 0.6880. Still, with rate hike already priced in, there's a high risk NZD/USD will return to 0.6400-0.6500 even if RBNZ goes ahead with hike, with market focus turning to Australia. Support pegged at 0.6610 today, topside cap 0.6660.
RBNZ Bollard May Decide To Buy Time - BNZ
RBNZ Governor Bollard may yet decide against a rate hike despite there being "strong case" for one, says Bank of NZ; tips RBNZ to hold fire, on view Bollard may well feel that, compared to signposts outlined in September policy statement, economic data on balance haven't provided enough of an upside surprise to justify hike. Says governor might cite higher-than-expected NZD/USD, falling headline inflation as excuse to buy more time, while simply warning of another hike. Tomorrow's 3Q CPI to be watched carefully, but unless outcome significantly varies from consensus of +0.8% on-quarter, +3.6% on-year, market pricing for hike likely kept at 70% going into Thursday's rate review
Hello all
Here's a Pitchfork chart (cus I know Peat is getting right into them now ;))
Looks good..... ya!!
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd_102506.gif
Sunshine Coast 26 C and very nice.
regards - arco
no change to interest rates.
Morning Peat
Yes, I think the charts have been showing us the picture for some time. Nice fall already towards the blue fork tyne.
Regards - arco - [8D] its very hot already on the SS Coast and only 7.55 am
Bollard Leaves Rates Unchanged
26/10/2006 10:17 AM
NZPA
Home owners, businesses, and unions can breath easier after Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 7.25 percent on Thursday.
Dr Bollard said he could not rule out another rate rise in the current cycle and any easing of policy remained a considerable way off.
"The balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside," he said in his regular six-weekly review of the OCR.
With inflation running outside the bank's 1-3 percent target range for five quarters, it was always going to be a tight call whether he hiked.
A slim majority of economists had forecast he would raise the rate, even though the economy has been sluggish for over a year.
However, Wednesday's Consumer Price Index rise of 0.7 percent in the September quarter was lower than anticipated, resulting in the annual rate falling from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent.
"Since our September Monetary Policy Statement, there has been a significant improvement to the near-term inflation outlook, mainly as a result of the decline in oil prices," Dr Bollard said.
He said the bank expected lower fuel prices, together with the recent rebound in the exchange rate and a change in the make-up of CPI to produce an unusually low December quarter CPI reading.
These were however only temporary factors and, apart from the likely favourable effect on inflation expectations, were not expected to materially affect medium-term inflation.
He said the policy outlook was little changed from September when he changed tack, saying another tightening could be needed, whereas at mid-year he had indicated he was done with the tightening phase.
Dr Bollard said indicators of medium-term inflation pressures remained significant.
Modest economic growth in the second quarter had been in line with the bank's forecasts and there had been a further rebalancing of demand away from the domestic sector and towards exports.
Continued strength in most of New Zealand's international markets and a downward trending exchange rate would support that rebalancing, he said.
However, on the domestic front, the housing market remained resilient supported by net immigration and continued house lending expansion by banks at low interest margins. Dr Bollard expressed concern that falling petrol prices would fuel a pick-up in household spending.
While inflation pressures appeared to be abating, there were some indicators of resources pressures. High capacity utilisation and a tight labour market "continue to signal caution".
Dr Bollard refused to take questions to explain his decision.
The decision not to hike would put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, particularly against its counterpart in Australia, where inflation has risen above New Zealand's rate and where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates at least twice more this year.
The New Zealand dollar, at U66.17c shortly before the decision, has risen around 10 percent in the last quarter, surprising currency experts and hurting exporters.
The announcement caused the NZ dollar to fall against its US counterpart to US65.74c immediately afterwards.
Against the Australian dollar the kiwi dropped from A86.85c to A86.42c.
Find this item at:
http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmoney/0,,13276-6481810,00.html
Hello All
Evaluating this cross using the Ichimoku (one glance) technique on the monthly chart.
In the past Tenkan crosses (TX) on the monthly chart have been very reliable. The TX crossed a few months ago, and more recently the action has retraced north to the Kijun (red) which appears to be acting as resistance.
The whole scenario is looking bearish now, and IMO we could see a nice drop in the NZD. One other point to remember is the bearish Head and Shoulders that would form if/once the price drops to the circa 5950.
regards - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_m110706.gif
on a shorter time frame arent we seeing a bullish gartley tho?
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/1350/nzdusd10112006nu7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Peat
Maybe - but remember Gartleys are notorious for developing on into BF's.
Also the previous chart is a monthly, so fluctuations of a minor degree make very little difference on the greater scale.
We need to check that chart again at the end of the month.
arco
Shorts in play since .6670
See how we go, but possible 5 looks like it may be near the end, so may abc before continuing it's next leg down.
Tight stop and will reset on bounce
Cheers
Slam
tempted to see this as a new opportunity to long the AUD/NZD
Hi peat
Yes went long again this morning AUD NZD.
May be premature but around 1500 is the uptrand support
Cheers
Slam
roddy
29-11-2006, 09:56 AM
Hi Arco,
i havent seen the ichimoku before,is it very reliable,
do you know where i could download Ichimoku from into metastock 7.2
Are the Tenken crosses moving averages
Have been short kiwi,but defying the odds has traded as high as .6820 this morning,so on the sidelines at present,will be interesting to see if 6720 will now become support or whether the present levels represent opportity to go short again.
Morning Roddy
Ive got MS 7.02 and Ichi is in my indictor list. Let me know if you cant find it and I will send you the MS code. As to reliability, I would say it works better on longer term charts.
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese newspaper writer, writing under the pen name "Ichimoku Sanjin." He developed this charting technique before World War II, and offered it to the public when he published his book in 1969.
Ichimoku translates as "a glance" or "one look." Kinko Hyo translates as "the table of equilibrium" or "balance table." Hence a chart displaying this indicator provides a broad look at the prices in a single view. You should be able to look at the chart and know at a glance whether to buy or sell.
Three key time periods are used to calculate the five individual plots used in the indicator. These times periods are based on the trading conditions at the time the indicator was created: Japan in the 1930's. At the time, a trading week was six days instead of the five days we are used to today. Some traders may wish to alter the time periods to reflect the change in trading days.
9 periods = one and a half weeks (now 7.5 periods. use 7 or 8)
26 periods = one month (now 22 periods)
52 periods = two months (now 44 periods)
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator is composed of the following five plots, in addition to the closing prices.
Tenkan-sen. The standard line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Kijun-sen. The default periods for this plot is 9. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. The highest high is the highest high over the last specified number of time periods. By default, this is the highest high of the last 9 periods. The other highest highs and lowest lows are calculated the same way.
Kijun-sen. The turning line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Tenkan-sen. The default periods for this plot is 26. The calculation for this plot is also (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. However, the values are taken from a 26 periods time frame instead of a 9 periods time frame.
Senkou Span A. The first span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span B. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen)/2.
Senkou Span A. The second span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span A. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2.
Chikou Span. The delayed line. This plot is simply the close plotted the desired number of time periods in the past. The default periods for this plot is 26. In this case, today's close would be plotted 26 days ago.
The Ichimoku indicators are used together as one set of signals. If the signals do not agree, the chart is unreliable. When all three signals are in agreement, the signal is strong.
Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen. A buy signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen. A sell signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen can be used as support and resistance.
Senkou Span A / Senkou Span B. The area between the two Spans is the Kumo, or cloud. A buy signal is generated when the close crosses above the cloud. A sell signal is generated when the close crosses below the cloud. Near the intersections of Span A and Span B, the market has a tendency to become chaotic. The Senkou Spans can also be used as support or resistance. When the close is above the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of support. When the close is below the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of resistance.
Chikou Span / Close. A buy signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses above the close. A sell signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses below the close.
regards - arco
theres also some interesting stuff on investopedia on the Ichimoku
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/ichimoku.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/072104.asp
this bit in partic.
Strong signals - A strong buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A strong sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be above the Kumo.
Normal signals - A normal buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A normal sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be within the Kumo.
Weak signals - A weak buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A weak sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be below the Kumo.
roddy
29-11-2006, 12:56 PM
Arco/Peat
thanks yes Arco that would be great if you could send Ichimoku,i have been through indicator lists but its not there!
Thanks Peat, i will check out the links!
cheers roddy
Roddy
You can download it directly from Equis here.
http://www.equis.com/Customer/Resources/TASC/Article.aspx?Id=17
regards - arco
USD strengthening accross the board. I think there may be at least a short term peak in the kiwi. Hence went short @ 70.85. The bigger question is the right hand shoulder of a massive H & S now forming? Eitherway major resistance in the whole 70.85 - 71.00 area. I can see this coming back at least 200pips quite quickly - 100 pips so far.
Wow. That was a real quick 200+ pips. It seems a few long positions were quickly being unwound. I had my stop a bit too tight, but still managed a 140 pip gain. Looks like on the short term will come back to at least 69.00 cents - will look to re-enter depending on indicators at that stage.
interesting how Moody seem to disregard our debt and deficit....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10418830
Hmmmm. Another example of how the exception has become the rule. It is so "normal" now for most countries to have large debt and deficits that the "officials" more or less justify that things are at an acceptable level. I wouldn't be suprised that it remains this way until the whole system isn't so "awash" with cash. Of course the longer that goes on for the more pain and less chairs there will be once the music finally stops!
Finally we are getting some movement. Patience has certainly been a virtue with this one. For those who are looking for the Kiwi to fall I reckon .6820 is the key. If that level is clearly broken (breaking the low from early Jan + breaking a 6mth trendline) then it could be all on, quite quickly heading to .6500 - .6600..................On the otherhand if it holds then we could have another go at the .7200 level. Only time will tell!
weekly graph here shows a rather disturbing head and shoulders in the making (but not completed so I'm not allowed to comment right ;) ) but there are definitiely two shoulders perfectly matched at 0.71 around a slightly lopsided head
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9117/nzdweeklyfeb2007xq5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Am I correct in thinking though, that one should only trade them when they break through the neckline hence this has to fall to 0.60 before we sell it with a target of 0.4.
So all a bit pie in the sky at this stage but something I noticed over the weekend.
Strictly speaking you are proabably right in saying one shouldn't jump until the neckline break has happened.............But yes, doesn't this one (so far) look so tempting and juicy! My theory is if other signals are starting to give notice then take action but with good stops in place.
Kiwi currently appears to be back filling, perhaps back to the 0.69 region - watching & waiting!
miner
05-02-2007, 05:20 PM
Hi guys I think much the same,as if I see a pattern forming and think it is going to test "X",then jump on as long as there are enough pips before "X",then you can set a stop just above or below "X" so if doesn't go through your safe,and if does then your in the money.
To me this is often safer than buying at "X",not a great example but look at my usd/jpy chart I will post in a tick.
Cheers
Miner
Hi all
Been following this H&S for a few months now
I have gone short twice now when over .7 has failed;)
Working out nicely so far
Trailing stop picks up the pips.
Will continue to do so for the next year or so[:0]
Cheers
Slam
NZD/USD - Nearing a Short Term Top?
Tuesday, 20 February 2007 14:07:45 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Is NZD/USD ready to reverse? Let’s see how our Trend Reversal Thermometer list stacks up:
Slim chance of Short Term Top in NZD/USD
The NZD/USD has staged an impressive rally over the past week and today’s candle suggests the possibility of a turn. However our picking tops and bottoms thermometer indicates that there is only a slim chance for a reversal. The only technical supports that we have for a reversal are the JPercentile indicator on the daily chart and Elliott Wave formation. Only a weekly basis, the JPercentile indicator still points to potential gains. This is supported by the fact that the currency pair gapped open on Sunday night. There is no significant support and resistance level until 0.7100, which is essentially 100 pips away from here. Risk reversals are right in the middle of the band and NZD/USD volatility which is at 9.40 percent is not conducive for a top. Therefore even though it may be tempting to look for weakness in the NZD/USD here, our thermometer suggests that you wait for a test and failure of the 0.7100 level first.
Steve
25-02-2007, 11:00 AM
With the latest talk being a NZD/USD of 80, how many times has the call come out of parity of the NZD/AUD which has never eventuated?
My guess is that the NZD/USD may go up short-term, fail to hit 80 then start its decline...
Ahhhh.
This latest movement is just beautiful! If she breaks down through 67.40 then 66.90 there could be a big capitulation to the downside. Perhaps a suprise "no change" to the OCR on Thursday will do the business. On the other hand this is starting to look oversold so I'm starting to tighten stops a little more now.
Steve
08-03-2007, 10:48 AM
I closed out my long USD position at .6794 after a quick run this morning. I probably should have put a stop in place at say .6800 and let it run further, but I am still getting the confidence to rely on a stop order to enable me to step away from the screen while in a trade.
Perhaps my personality is suggesting that i am a 'control freak'?[:p]
Since Jan 5 is NZD drawing out a expanding triangle formation?
Described in John J.Murphys 'Technical Analysis of Financial Markets' as usually ocurring at major tops and representing a market that is out of control and unusually emotional.
Rare and difficult to trade the article below suggest waiting for a doji
see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broadeningformation.asp
Hi Peat
Yes, sometimes also called a Megaphone top.
I'm firstly looking at the area 7202-7230 for
signs of possible resistance / reversal.
regards -arco
my fib levels suggested 7197 :)
Tues EOD high of 7203 formed a Shooting Star which could mean the
bulls are running out of steam.
A nice long black today would complete an Evening Star pattern
and give a bearish message.
regards -arco
yes I've shorted from 7176 with stop at 7233
my oanda daily candles are now looking dark cloudish
Well my book says the broadening formation is rare and yet hey, the kiwi had one just over a year ago and look what happened after that! Is history going to repeat itself?
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/853/nzd01042007dailymegaphovg0.jpg[/URL]
I've also added in my fibonacci 161% and 261% and 423% extensions. These are taken as the extensions of the original wave from 0 to 100 and provide resistance and potential turning points.
The first two (on the left and in the middle of the picture )are extending down.
The last fib on the right shows upward extension from the original wave at daily closes of 5958 to 6252. 161 and 261% extensions are less respected here but so far the 423% has held.
The up and down extensions seem to have a lot in common in terms of resistance levels.
Nice chart Peat
Will history repeat?
Exporters hail Kiwi's fall
08 March 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN
Exporters are cheering the almost US1.5 cent fall in the Kiwi dollar and the prospect of futher declines in the next six months.
The dollar dropped overnight on Monday and yesterday to an 18-month low of US65.12c caused by international investors concerned about the New Zealand economy.
Part of the fall is due to investors expecting the gap between high Kiwi interest rates and those of other countries to lessen in coming months as official interest rates rise in the United States and Japan. "
The US isn't raising rates this time and NZ is......
Unfortunately Bollard and the Bank economists haven't accepted the obvious empirical relationship between relativity of international interest rates and exchange rates. They seem to think that microeconomic activity will change or at least explain the world economy. The only way NZRB interest rate movements will affect inflation in this country is to force a recession. Bollard took a step closer last month. His bag of tricks is dead unless he lowers interest rates.
Hi Peat
Here you will find some interesting info on Broadening Tops from Bulkoski.
http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html
regards -arco
Contrarian
03-04-2007, 01:37 PM
Gidday
Accumulate USD
Regards
Ps. They come in different colour bank notes now :-)
do you have a rationale there Contrarian.
This current situation on the NZD is a good demonstration of the way the fib ext method is suppose to operate and here , even works on a short term view.
Note how each ext beyond 100 i.e to either 161 or 261 extension has always retraced back to its previous level eg 100 or 161. That is the most certain and hence tradeable part of the chart pattern.
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/8539/nzdusd15min04042007cy9.jpg[/URL]
Ignore the price box with the high lows etc, that was a random event.
Steve
05-04-2007, 10:03 AM
Keep up the analysis, Peat. I am finding it very educational...:)
Steve
10-04-2007, 08:04 PM
I see that the 3-minute NZDUSD has been in a trading range between 7239 & 7255 since about 14:30 NZT (approx 5.5hrs), testing both levels twice.
Whichever way it breaks, it should have some momentum...
Steve
10-04-2007, 08:08 PM
As an aside to the above comment, using 7255 as the high and the 2-day low of 7186, there is a fib retracement of 23.6% at 7239!
Therefore, it appears that the trading range fits the fib levels based on the current move.
I could post a chart, but not too sure how too...
miner
10-04-2007, 08:22 PM
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21713&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
so.... I will concede the broadening formation has broken out on the upside, as Bulkoski said there was a reasonable chance of it doing. Resistance at just above 72 was found, but overcome. Ah the pain of trading forex.
Hi Peat
Perhaps Mr Gann will assist circa 7324, however
theres always the old Mar 05 top at 7467 that
could act like a magnet.
regards - arco
Steve
15-04-2007, 09:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by miner
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21713&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
Thanks Miner!
I will have a go and see what I can post on here...
Kiwi is looking slightly vunerable.
I opened a short yesterday and closed it this morning for 23 pips. (My auto target of 50 was not quite reached overnight).
Anyway, there may be another opportunity considering yesterdays black EOD candle.
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/3544/kiwiuv5.gif
regards - arco http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif
article published y'day before todays rate hike....
http://stuff.co.nz/4078120a1865.html
Hi Peat
Bad Stuff [:0]
......So they might be quite surprised if it reaches 7890,
or even more. Its very likely IMHO.
regards - arco
roddy
08-06-2007, 09:34 PM
Hi All,
think kiwi wont go much higher for awhile as resent rate increase was anticipated,shorted from 50 yeste4rday,missed todays chance.
i know d doesnt quite fit the perfect form! cheers roddy
http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/9641/kiwivv6.jpg
Hey Roddy
Thats what I call a 'Drop Leg' Butterfly.
They do appear occasionally. Sometimes they
work - sometimes they don't.............
regards - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif
roddy
08-06-2007, 10:05 PM
hi Arco
seems like a good name Drop Leg,
describes my trading at times!,as in
sometimes works - somtimes doesnt
regards
roddy
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif
The Plunger
11-06-2007, 03:05 PM
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
quote:Originally posted by The Plunger
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
Sydney, June 11: the RBNZ confirmed that they have intervened saying that current levels of the NZD are "exceptional" and "unjustified". They added that the intervention doesn"t prejudge future direction of monetary policy.
Cheers
Slam
Anyone a contrarian.........maybe try a quick buy
(even if its a dead cat bounce)
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif
I'm with you arco
I think the RBNZ will have there work cut out on this one.
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Can the RBNZ beat down this Butterfly?
.............only time will tell
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
regards - arco
Ms Gann says. Bit of a bounce at 7403 perhaps.
Mmmm....another large injection required perhaps......
http://www1.bestgraph.com/gifs/economie/tirelires/tirelires-05.gif
quote:
New Zealand Dollar declined ignoring RBNZ first intervention in 22 years
The Dollar rallied to a 3 ½ month high against the Swiss franc on Monday, with US 10-year Treasury yields over 5% and investors largely ignoring the New Zealand central bank's first market intervention in 22 years. The NzdUsd posted its largest decline in 15 months after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold its own currency, but there was only limited impact on carry trades in which investors buy high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand funded by borrowing low-cost currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen. The RBNZ intervention to curb the NZD came four days after the central bank surprised markets by raising its key interest rate to 8%, the highest benchmark rate in the industrialized world.
Despite RBNZ intervention, key daily chart support for NZD/USD at 0.7470 held firm, and the RBNZ's inability to make the NZD technically weaker could undermine their credibility. The 'failure' of yesterday's intervention to technically break down the NZD raises the possibility that the RBNZ may intervene again to try and do some more damage.
With no major US economic data on Monday, dealers kept liquid currencies, other than the New Zealand Dollar, in narrow ranges, waiting for the may US retail sales report on Wednesday.
is that the hand of the RBNZ putting money into the Nomura piggybank?
another hit this morning from the RBNZ?
"I'm convinced they've intervened," said Alex Sinton, senior currency dealer at ANZ National from Auckland. "It's now gotten very dangerous for the bank because at this point the impact of this intervention has been less than the last one."
Certainly looks like it afetr that 30 minute red whopper,
but its not gonna work judging by the aftermove.
(That was also a nice 30 min butterfly trade).
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/images/swbut.gif
arco
http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/19JuneCartoon.gif
Theres no stopping this Butterfly......
.....onwards and upwards 7800+++ in sight now.
.........RBNZ just dont have enough money
to have any serious effect IMO.
arco
quote:Originally posted by arco
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif
Touched 78.79, pretty close arco, well done.
Think it may have another few goes at it as well
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes thats the first BF target.
Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
regards - arco
quote:Originally posted by arco
....Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
I'd buy that for a doller;)(Even a little more)
Cheers
Slam
Best tip I can give for a dollar.
http://homepages.cwi.nl/~dik/english/traffic/signals/l/lvl-2.gif
Always use a stop ;)
Outlook from Gocurrency
http://www.gocurrency.com/outlook-nzd-usd.htm
Interesting comments from Gocurrency. Now that some more water has gone under the bridge it would be interesting to see what their thoughts are now.
The 40 week rythym doesn't seem to be the current play though. I find time cycles are also hardest to identify. Just when one finds a clear cycle, everyone else seems to pick it too and hence naturally destroy it.
I get the feeling that 0.7880 is about to get blown away. But maybe that is me just projecting my wish as I'm currently long the kiwi!
More pain ahead..............
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1.Ebb489tOc&refer=economy
roddy
16-07-2007, 09:10 PM
Hi FTG/ARCO
Your long looking pretty good at the moment FTG
Any thoughts on long term batterfly Arco with D at.8050
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/6968/nzd1tp6.jpg
Hmmm.
I reckon the .8050 might just be a "mid afternoon break" for the kiwi. I'm placing us in a smaller wave 3 at the moment - target 0.8330! -approx Late August/ early September
Scary if I'm right with that one. If so, I would guess it will be more of a story of the USD falling off the shelf than anything.
Hi Roddy
Onwards and upwards it appears
Theres a possible margfly if you take the
start from March 05.
aroc
Viking
19-07-2007, 05:23 PM
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate???[xx(]
Steve
21-07-2007, 02:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by Viking
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]
Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...
History includes economics tho. My NZ history studies at AKL University were centred on economics
Marx was a historian ;)
Have now tightened up my stops on the long position. Chart is starting to look like a triangle, possibly an ending triangle. If so a thrust in the next few days to your .8050 would make sense Roddy. Followed by a sharp downwards move.
bogus1
22-07-2007, 11:13 AM
i do think the kiwi is going higher, in some ways cullen's latest rhetoric will in itself add fuel to the fire.it seems theres nearly a degree of panic in his attempts to jaw bone things down and also rbnz's intervention attempt being followed by what looks like a an almost certain hike seems surreal.is it possible bollard may just whack the market with a 50 bps rise this week let it capitulate and then stabilise rather than this slow torture. tough medicine but really he is paying the price for not raising when he should knowing fine well the structural problems in the new zealand economy mean a very average growth rate still equates to an economy running at maximum capacity.
roddy
23-07-2007, 12:42 PM
Hi FTG
hay there could be a few pip on offer but I dont see it as a major turning point!
imho: i was wrong at .7550 thinking it wouldn't go any higher,nothing new is coming out of RBNZ so if they raise rates again could easily expect to see the upper levels of Arcos butterfly being reached on page 35.
in your favour FTG its looking like an ascending triangle on the daily .7935 level which could now act as support possibly
bogus1
23-07-2007, 02:09 PM
anyone got any thoughts on the weekly butterfly that has formed X mar 2005, A mid 2006, B @ C early 2007 its got a pretty tight 127 xa ab=cd ,314 bc all around 79 ish. i have been looking at failed patterns as a bullish confirmation to poss mid 80s . sorry about the charts hopefully peat will help me later
bogus1
23-07-2007, 02:26 PM
there is also a deep bearish crab inside the butterfly with an x point oct 2005 and same A B C POINTS with a d projection around 79 ish , however after all that i still cant get too excited about a imminent reversal, i think picking a top on the kiwi is seat of your pants stuff and still prefer a buy on dips
Viking
23-07-2007, 05:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve
quote:Originally posted by Viking
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]
Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...
:D Indeed~ well but I thought he would at least have some sense on these things~
~ A lesson man learn from history, is that man never learn from history~ :D Maybe a good quote for Dr C~ [:p]
bogus1
23-07-2007, 07:29 PM
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_02Jul2317.39.gif
bogus1
23-07-2007, 07:31 PM
one small step for man one giant leap for me
Steve
23-07-2007, 07:55 PM
So it could be a bit early to short the NZD then?
bogus1
23-07-2007, 08:28 PM
it doesnt look like there has been much hesitation through the fib pattern and just simple trend lines are all intact so i would say not
Hi Guys
I posted this before in June but just to compare where we are at again, this moster Brown hatched in 2004-2006 shows the possibility that the mid 8000's could print
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
arco
miner
24-07-2007, 10:40 PM
First time I have watched this pair tonight,does it usually move this slow or does it speed up at certain times?.
Cheers
miner
bogus1
25-07-2007, 12:29 PM
anz commentary
Outlook
Currency: Target remains 0.8154 for the NZD but risks of a correction lower have increased substantially with
the brief move above 0.81 yesterday. USD index continues to remain above 80 awaiting housing data tonight.
Bonds: Expect local yields to open unchanged.
Today: No local data today. Australian Q2 CPI due at 1330 NZST.
Review
Currency: Another stellar performance from the NZD yesterday as it eliminated stop loss buying orders with
ease. Further yield demand was evident although this began to wane slightly after the move above 0.81.
Fixed Income: US Treasuries posted modest gains as concerns over housing and riskier credit markets lend
support to bonds. A US$6b auction of 20-yr TIPS met with decent demand.
Equities: US stocks fell over 1 percent as housing concerns dragged financial and homebuilders stocks lower,
and a fall in oil prices weighed on energy stocks.
Commodities: Oil prices fell for a third day on speculation that US refineries are increasing their fuel production
and an official from Iran’s Oil Ministry said OPEC would raise output if required. Gold prices rose on the back of
USD weakness.
Text Box: 25 July 2007
MAJOR MARKET MOVERS
(0715 NZ TIME)
BNZ COMMENT
The NZD/USD broke above 0.8100 yesterday and went
on to record an intra-session high of 0.8110– its highest
level since January 1982.
Over the past day or so, the NZD/USD has been
propelled to the fresh post-float highs by a combination of
broad based USD weakness and heightened speculation
about the RBNZ raising the OCR to 8.25% on Thursday.
The positive NZD sentiment was also helped by the
announcement of EIB’s NZ$400m 5-year Eurokiwi issue.
Indeed, retail accounts out of Asia continue to have an
appetite for NZD.
In addition, the NZD/USD has also been propped up by
very solid demand for NZD/AUD. It appears that a variety
of short-term leverage accounts have been squaring up
short NZD/AUD positions ahead of Thursday’s OCR
Review. The NZD/AUD climbed over 0.9100 yesterday,
but has failed to break above 0.9160 (large stops are
rumoured above this level).
Despite the strong rally seen in the NZD/USD yesterday,
the upward momentum appears to be stalling. NZD/USD
failed to break through 0.8100 last night. Indeed, model
funds and custodial accounts have been noted NZD/USD
sellers. Furthermore, the lacklustre performance of US
equities (S&P500 currently down 1.98%) has also
weighed on carry trade sentiment, and selling of
NZD/JPY has added to the downward pressure on
NZD/USD.
Today the Australian CPI release (due 13:30 NZ time) will
be the main focus. A strong underlying CPI out-turn
(0.8%q/q or greater) will likely heighten speculation about
the RBA raising rates on August 8. Since the RBNZ is
widely expected to hike this week, increased
hawkishness towards the RBA could well prompt another
round of NZD/AUD selling (particularly since the cross
has repeated failed to break above 0.9160).
bogus1
25-07-2007, 12:38 PM
possibility of a look at a short , major event risk tommorow with rate increase more or less full priced in, big downside risk to no hike and also possibilty of rbnz dumping kiwis onto market could be interesting
Finally stopped out on Long position. Nice little run that was!
Next 24 hrs are going to be quite interesting starting off with RBA decision in next minute or so.
Currency markets seemed to have factored in a rise, money markets aren't so sure.
The quiet political pressure on Bollard is great now. My punt is he won't rise - (this time!)
bogus1
25-07-2007, 02:32 PM
i agree, i reckon its a real close call,the rbnz are in a interesting position where they know what there going to do ie raise or not raise and so could intervene in a reduced liquidity enviroment as i feel some money must have been taken out of kiwi. so how you going to trade it??
Albeit I take note of the fundamentals and form opinions, I'm more enclined to take a wait & see approach and see what the market says and then make a move accordingly.
Steve
25-07-2007, 04:58 PM
Short NZD @ 8053; stop 8130
Let's see how it plays...
Good luck,
I have just made a similar order - my stop is a little tighter however; 8095. Goes through there and I reckon a new high will follow shortly.
Steve
25-07-2007, 10:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by FTG
Good luck,
I have just made a similar order - my stop is a little tighter however; 8095. Goes through there and I reckon a new high will follow shortly.
My guess is that any rate hike is already factored into the price and my stop allows a for a new high to be unsuccessfully tested prior to the announcement. If there is a new high, I will no doubt be taken out.
I trade through CMC, who do you use?
bogus1
26-07-2007, 09:00 AM
hike 25 bps
Hoags
26-07-2007, 09:21 AM
Went the other way long, think that the OCR rise is just another big green light for the traders. Spiked and dropped hard looks like its bouncing back strong tho.
bogus1
26-07-2007, 09:26 AM
short closed, bounced of weekly trend line 7980 , bollard indicated tightening cycle finished which has taken wind out of sails of bulls , pretty nervy trading though, will allow to settle.
have total laptop fever, must get off this planet quickly, see you next week
Hoags
26-07-2007, 09:29 AM
I agree kind of wish I didn't enter now, I have things to do today!
By NZPA
Thursday 26th July 2007
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The New Zealand economy is running strong. We are recording continued big increases in international commodity prices, especially dairy, reflecting solid world demand for our products.
"This is very good news for New Zealand. Given this positive situation, some of the negative commentary circulating about the economy is unwarranted.
"However, the continued tight labour market, high capacity use, and rising oil and food prices all point to sustained inflationary pressures. That is why we are increasing the OCR today.
"The New Zealand dollar has reached very high levels recently, driven by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders' heavy demand for borrowing. This level of the currency has been hurting exports.
"The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.
"New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing.
Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation."
NBR Comment
OCR lift betrays low opinion of NZ potential
by Neville Bennett
The Reserve Bank’s justification for raising the OCR to 8.25 per cent is much briefer than usual .
It says hardly anything about household demand (Kiwi’s are showing “early signs of moderating their borrowing”) and absolutely nothing explicitly about housing.
This is strange as on June 7 it emphasised demand, “particularly in the household sector” and “buoyant housing” market activity.
On 26 April, the Bank said demand was fuelled by a“buoyant “ (they like the word) housing market, increases in government expenditure, rising terms of trade, ongoing net immigration, and a robust labour market.
Most of the previous reasons for raising interest rates are not emphasised in today’s statement:
Housing is overlooked.
Government expenditure is overlooked (perhaps a case of ‘be nice to Cullen or he might over-rule me’ ?).
And migration and terms of trade are overlooked.
These omission are unexpected.
Although the housing market is steady, fiscal policy is inflationary, the Bank has suggested that migration be constrained, and the current account deficit is enormous.
So what is the Bank’s rationale?
The stress is on the good news of rising commodity export prices, especially dairy. Nevertheless, there are inflationary pressures indicated by the tight labour market, high capacity use, rising oil and food prices.
Are these valid points?
It is clear that demand is strong but in the tradable sector, inflation is in the middle of the 1 per cent to 3 per cent range.
As interest rates have been raised three times this year before today, there was a case for adopting a wait-and- see posture.
Australia is under similar pressures, but their Bank is proud of its 17-year boom, and is cheered that “property markets are firming” and borrowing is robust.
Australia’s growth rate is double New Zealand’s, but its OCR-equivalent is much lower (6.25 per cent).
The Reserve Bank NZ seems to have a low view of the economy’s potential output. It is putting the brakes on when growth is about 1.7 per cent.
The evidence is that,other things being equal, that New Zealand can have sustainable growth at over 3 per cebt per annum.
This rise in interest rates will hurt most businesses by increasing the cost of working capital and investment.
Many will be hurt further by the effects of the high dollar which will either reduce their export market or reduce the price of competing imports.
The manufacturers are hurting. They employ some 235,000 people and contribute to about 15 per cent of exports. They are bleeding jobs overseas.
The sectors suffering from the high Kiwi dollar get scant comfort from the Bank. It says the high dollar is caused by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders “heavy demand for borrowing”.
So it is back to householders after all.
Not the foreign-owned banks, not the RBNZ offering the highest interest rates in the world for the delectation of Japanese housewives.
It is worth emphasising again that the Reserve Bank takes a narrow view of New Zealand’s interests.
The consequences of its actions are damaging.
An unsustainable exchange rate hollows out manufactures, discourages many exporters, and creates huge balance of payment issue.
High short-term rates create an inverted yield curve which tilts the economy to recession. Creating a recession is absurd when the world economy is growing a record pace.
High interest rates also hurt business; curb investment and growth, and the building of wealth.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_article.asp?id=18587&cid=39&cname=NBR+Comment
Steve
26-07-2007, 06:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by Steve
Short NZD @ 8053; stop 8130
Let's see how it plays...
Stop lowered to 8020, watching it decline...
bogus1
27-07-2007, 07:06 AM
WOW !!!
roddy
27-07-2007, 08:15 AM
Hi Steve
short at .7992 so not in as early as you however things moving nicely at the moment!
bogus1
27-07-2007, 09:17 AM
things that make you go DOAH , possible 300 pippa and i got 60
d................o..............a............h.... ............
bogus1
27-07-2007, 09:18 AM
by the way well done steve et al other shorters
For those interested in a little Elliott Wave.
Last 3 days action. Kiwi peaked at .8109. First move down to .7995 = 114 pips. Then corrected back up to 0.8081. Take the 114 pips and multiply by a Fibonacci 2.618 (= 298 pips)
Finally take these 298 pips and project down off the 0.8081 correction point. This projects a target of 0.7283.
Guess where we bottomed and turned back this morning! You got it, 0.7283.
Art in motion - question is, was this a A-B-C move or the first 3 waves of an impulse. Time will tell.
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