View Full Version : Nzd.usd
Didn't take long to get an answer!
Wave 4 was a shallow retracement, not even reaching 23.6% - hence demonstrating weakness.
Wave 3 low has already been taken out. Wave 5 should bottom in the 0.7717-0.7761 range
bogus1
27-07-2007, 06:39 PM
so the universe is connected , i reckon fph is a great currency play when confirms
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_04Jul2718.30.gif
bo
I've got the FPH low as 18/4 @ 2.75, so that would alter the bot parameters
????
rgds - arco
Forex Focus: The Kiwi May Be Leading Carry Trade Reversal
By Nicholas Hastings
Just as the canary was an indicator of poisonous gas in coal mines, the kiwi could prove to be an indicator of a fall in global liquidity.
Look at the way the New Zealand dollar fell off its perch despite the hike in New Zealand interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this week.
With New Zealand rates now up at 8.25%, this hike made the highest-yielding of the 10 major traded currencies even more attractive. However, investors still shied away, as concerns over a credit crunch rose and global appetite for risk faded away.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand could be at least partially to blame for the losses.
It tried to play down the rate rise, suggesting that after four successive hikes, rates are probably high enough to keep a lid on inflation.
RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said: "New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing."
Bollard also helped to discourage any bullish reaction by the kiwi by warning once again that the currency is hurting the export sector and that its current strength isn't sustainable. Earlier this summer, the central bank intervened in an attempt to halt the currency's advance and the threat of a repeat exercise remains.
These comments help to explain the kiwi's reversal, with the market now looking to economic evidence over the next few weeks that the rates don't need to be hiked any further.
"The performance of the New Zealand dollar remains data dependent," said Sharada Selvanathan, a current strategist with BNP Paribas in Singapore.
However, the New Zealand dollar's somewhat unexpected decline also comes at a time when global investment flows may be starting to shift.
A steady rise in concern over U.S. subprime mortgages over the last week appears to be spreading into other markets, with each day bringing reports of financing difficulties being faced by corporations as the global appetite for risk dries up.
Apart from poor earnings forecasts from financial institutions and companies directly affiliated with the housing market, other companies are finding that they are having to pay considerably more in the corporate debt market as lenders shy away.
This week, the purchasers of a GM transmission subsidiary, the private equity buyers of Chrysler and Alliance Boots have all faced difficulties putting together debt packages.
This decline in liquidity is also being reflected in global equity markets, where prices are tending to sink unless they get support from improved earnings reports.
Risk aversion also continues to rise with the latest reading of the UBS Risk Index showing another steady increase, suggesting that interest in carry trades, whereby purchases in high-yielding currency assets are funded by selling low yielders, is on the wane.
For high-yielders, such as the New Zealand dollar, this could spell the end of recent support that has pushed them steadily higher at the expense of low-yielding currencies such as the yen.
"The RBNZ's rate decision provided the clearest hint yet from any of the major monetary tighteners that rates may have peaked, albeit the hint was heavily qualified," said David Simmonds, head of foreign exchange strategy at The Royal Bank of Scotland in London.
The key thing now is whether the kiwi will continue to decline, reflecting the decline in global liquidity as investors pull back into lower risk assets, or whether it will once again track rate hike expectations on the basis on New Zealand economic data alone.
Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns International, reckons that although the rate cycle may not yet have changed, "the kiwi will continue to peel back" in the short term.
Over at RBC Capital Markets, senior currency strategist Adam Cole argues that little has changed.
"This is not the New Zealand dollar-negative story that the knee-jerk reaction suggests," he said.
"For the extreme high and low yielding currencies in particular, recent price action has overwhel
I have some active Gann support circa 7720
(perhaps for a wee bounce)
If /or when this breaks theres another powerful
support awaiting down below circa 7464 (active)
arco
bogus1
27-07-2007, 08:41 PM
when im messing around looking for patterns sometimes i will play around with the x point to see if the harmonics are improved and i felt this was valid as there was a significant rally from that x point. i know its not for the purists.
bo
Scott is quite specific with the Bat - the parameters MUST stack up otherwise is ain't a Bat.
The pattern incorporates the 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg. The Bat utilizes a minimum 1.618BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat is extended and usually requires a 1.27AB=CD calculation.
rgds - arco
Hi Arco,
That 7720 fits in nicely with the 7717 I mentioned earlier. After a very good run today on the short side I have now reversed and gone long; entry 7740 - hopefully for a decent bounce. Running a 40 pip stop, so hopefully I haven't picked the turn prematurely.
What a beautiful day it has been!
I got knocked out of that rather quickly. Teaches me right for getting to cute and not keeping to the basics!
Oh well, still a very successful 24hrs overall.
FTG
When the trend is still dubious, my tactic with Gann level bounce trades is to take a small number of pips on 75% of the position based on a 50-618 fib calc of the retrace, and then let a small balance ride. In this case 7801 (50%) for 40 pips.
Its easy to get back in if you get a wave 1 retrace.
rgds - arco
Arco,
Yep good strategy!
Another mistake I made was going out for the night and not setting an alert for when a upside target had been hit. Then I would have raised my stop and locked in a no lose situation.
As I said - basic stuff. Entirely my fault for not being disciplined and keeping to my own trade management rules.
bogus1
28-07-2007, 06:21 PM
hi all
update on chart looks very much like this pattern is in play initial 38 target 72.80 and then 61 target 67.60. possible bounce off march trend line at 76.40,or march 2005 high and april 2007 high at 74.80
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_05Jul2818.06.gif
bogus1
29-07-2007, 01:40 PM
hi , having been having a look ichimoku indicator, a new one for me and very interesting. i would appreciate any comments on my interpretation.
on weekly the tenkan (magenta) & kijun (red) lines have provided very reliable support, looks as though tenkan under pressure which may bring kijun into play.
on daily chikou (brown) may come into play with a bounce of closing price
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_07Jul2913.08.gif
bogus1
30-07-2007, 09:51 AM
CURRENCY
Review
> NZD: Trouble continued to stay with the NZD as it bounced only
briefly at 0.7733 before crashing through it in the European session
on Friday evening. USD fortunes were assisted by the better than
forecast Q2 GDP advanced release, although gains against the JPY
were limited in the lead up to their weekend upper house elections.
Outlook
> NZD: Support at 0.7575 next in the firing line
Having obliterated many of the recent support levels, the NZD is
likely to further investigate these during the week. IMM positioning
to the week ending 24th July continues to show increasing long
positions of NZD but does not take into account the severe rout
experienced from the post float high of 0.8110 created last week.
bogus1
30-07-2007, 10:15 AM
NZD
Early in last week the NZD/USD recorded a fresh 25-year
high of 0.8110 (July 24), but then proceeded to fall. By
the time the week ended, the NZD/USD was about 4½
cents lower around 0.7650.
The NZD/USD was again pressured by fresh selling of
carry trade currencies on Friday. The stronger than
expected Q2 US data (printed at 3.4% vs. 3.2% forecast)
did little to soothe investors’ worries about the
deteriorating global credit markets. Indeed, the sharp
losses in US equity markets (S&P500 finished down
1.6%) triggered another bout of carry trade unwinding.
Hedge funds and model-driven accounts were heavy
sellers of NZD, and the NZD/JPY was knocked the cross
from around 93.00 to below 91.00.
It is worth noting, that the recent NZD selling has not
been limited to short-term speculative players. Over the
past few days, we have seen a mixture of real-money and
custodial accounts selling NZD. In addition, while
Japanese accounts have shown some appetite for NZD
on dips, so far this has failed to provide much of a floor
for the currency.
For the coming week, we suspect the NZD/USD will
continue to trade with a heavier bias. The global
backdrop of soft global equities, falling risk appetite and
general uncertainty around credit markets will keep carry
trade currencies vulnerable to further weakness.
The local data may also help keep the downward
pressure on the NZD/USD by reinforcing last week’s
message that we could be near the peak in the RBNZ’s
tightening cycle. Building consents and household credit
claims (both out Monday) are likely to provide the first
real signs of softening in NZ’s housing market following
the anecdotal hints of such. On Tuesday, we also have
the National Bank Business Outlook Survey where the
sharp drop seen in June is likely to be consolidated in
July.
bogus1
30-07-2007, 03:00 PM
a question for you arco (the million dollar question),is this the big unwind or a healthy correction for a move to mid 80s, i would value your opinion,which may not be technically based.
i just have an uncanny feeling when the dust settles there may be some big flows back into the carry traders.
yes there may be some data coming out which will suggest some reduction in economic activity but in some respects the fundamentals are still the same. it reminds me of what i think was a currency concepts publication called the 'story of the dollar' in which one of the conclusions they reached, was that a cycle ended not on interest rate rises but interest rate cuts and way too much time and energy was spent on second guessing interest rate movements.
its all about rate differentials so on this cross its just widened ,read what you want into that.
bo
Chartwise I would say from a harmonic perspective towards 8400 in not out of the question. I posted this chart on here a while back...............
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
Fundamentally I see no reason for the carry trade to vanish because the Japanese have got the bug now and are increasingly investing overseas, (which also weakens their currency).
rgds - arco
Steve
01-08-2007, 07:29 AM
While I got the first drop after shorting last week, I actually closed my position at 78.45 after geeting out of bed on Friday morning thinking that I had done not to bad for a days work. While expecting some volatility, I wasn't expecting another 2c drop on Friday.
[Note for next time]Perhaps I should have just lowered my stop to lock in some profits and stayed in the game.[B)]
This is getting interesting!
Looks like we may be in for a turbulent night in all markets tonight. People are slowly waking up to the fact that sub prime issues in America WILL effect everyone on the planet. Classic example is the MBL announcements today. IMO another round of carry trade unwinding has started today. I'm back short again at 0.76, but with a relatively tight stop.
Steve
01-08-2007, 08:43 PM
Are we going to see a 27% drop as predicted by Winston Peters?[?]
http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/8877/nzd15min03082007sd9.png
short term breakout?
Steve
05-08-2007, 07:36 AM
Hey Peat, do your references '49' & '50'have any significance?
no Steve - no special significance they are just labels for the two lines.
Using my breakout signal would have needed about a 30 pip stop to generate useful profits. technically it failed as a breakout because it came back into the convergence area and even went above the top line before falling 50 pips.
dumbass
05-08-2007, 07:40 PM
hey guys , it seems in forum change over my user name has changed to ,wait for it ........... DUMBASS oh yeah after speaking to my wife she says i should keep it . so without further a do my first post under dumbass following soon , regards trader formally known as bogus 1
dumbass
05-08-2007, 07:46 PM
it does seem after fri session it seems like this move is for real , looking to find good short entry
received this from omf
Why look to short NZD/USD
Chart 1 is of the Dow Jones and the NZD/USD over the past month, the correlation is quite clear. In our view if we did not have the subprime woes and the jittery equity markets the NZD/USD would be 80 cents plus. But with the current level of uncertainty in the markets we feel that the Kiwi carry trade could really begin to come under pressure. In August, we have NZ$3.4 billion of Uridashi Maturities. If the current market volatility continues we may see some unwinding rather than reinvestment in the carry trade. In September, we have another NZ$1 billion maturing so the domino effect of an August unwind could add to the downward pressure on the kiwi. Adding to this, the option covers the below data, including the next RBNZ statement, which may confirm that the RBNZ has finished its tightening cycle. Considering the above, we foresee an opportunity to gain from a sharp fall in the kiwi dollar. Given the high level of volatility in the global marketplace, we believe that spot positions should be kept relatively small and actively traded, whilst using options to really leverage potential profits.
Potential market moving economic releases covered by the option.
09/8/07 NZ Unemployment 2nd qtr.
24/8/07 NZ Merchandise Trade July.
13/9/07 NZ Retail Sales July.
13/9/07 NZ RBNZ Monetary policy Statement.
14/9/07 NZ Manufacturing Survey 2nd qtr.
18/9/07 US FOMC Rate Decision.
19/9/07 US CPI August.
20/9/07 NZ Balance of Payments 2nd qtr.
Considering the above we feel the most prudent way to potentially profit in the current environment is via an option. In this case we are not throwing the kitchen sink at it but rather taking out an insurance policy should we wake up one morning to an equity market meltdown.
Option Details
NZD/USD Spot reference 0.7650
NZD/USD One touch
Touch Level 0.7000
Expiry 7 weeks (21st September, 3pm Tokyo)
Payout NZ$ 50,000
Cost 12% (NZ$ 6,000)
Minimum payout is NZ$20,000 (cost NZ$ 2,400) and then any NZ$ 10,000 (cost NZ$ 1,200) multiple thereafter.
kiwi is compressing for over a week now. the band is now reduced to between 7650 and 7575. wait for a breakout. Mck says up to 77. I'd wait for a signal myself.
Max got it right then . 7690 hit overnite and I would consider it an upside break out now.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/2039/nzdhourly09082007ok9.jpg[/URL]
Could of course be the sucker rally tho... heheh.
TwinkleToes
11-08-2007, 05:52 AM
Hello, I am new to forex and recently bought some USD with NZD with no leverage. Just wondering what the leveraged options are out there? Have been in touch with CMCMarkets but that is all so far. Am looking to build up a short position in USD.NZD (ie. betting NZD will fall) with a 12 month view. Am getting about 4.5% on the USD so giving up about 3% on the interest rate differential.
Would be very grateful for any ideas on the above. Thank you.
Steve
11-08-2007, 03:35 PM
I use CMC for fx and it has been no hassles so far...
TwinkleToes
18-08-2007, 11:20 AM
Thanks, is there a better rate than 4.5% available on USD held in NZ bank foreign currency accounts? I got that from the BNZ.
whoops..............................
dumbass
23-08-2007, 10:38 AM
update on chart ....... violent to the extreme
frustrating really ,knew it was going to happen ,waiting for it to happen .. but when it happened just got a few nibbles. i have a couple of colleagues who are not really into the whole trading thing, more your long term , big picture guys . they both took out long term short nzd dollar postions ,one through options the other through leveraged account, 6 month time frame and they got it all , im sure there is a lesson in that , the pot of gold is definitely in the big picture moves.
fibonaccis nailing it!
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6163/nzd3hourly28082007ec0.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Arco,
Interesting eh! So what's your call from here?
gravitating towards first port of call - 0.7020 perhaps?
7027 to be precise is what the picture I posted would suggest - but its done a fair chunk of that already....
well it got to the 7027 (and now much lower) but only after 7150 got hit first!! my golly gosh thats some range.
You're not wrong there Peat. Some rather nervous folk around
We are now coming into some heavy traffic around the 0.6880 - 0.6920 area, including the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the Friday 17th low. As a result I have tightened up stops now. But my word, I must say I love these swift moves (when on the right side!).
At this stage the move from the 17th is clearly an ABC correction. The question for me is are we currently in a X wave to be followed by a further ABC or are we at the beginning of the next impulse wave down. If we take out the low of the 17th then something "ugly" is happening. A hard landing perhaps?
Hi All
I prepared this weekly chart yesterday.
The brown box at the top of the chart is from the Butterfly pattern starting mid 2006 which has been forming in the wings all that time (see my post and chart #698). The completion? of this long term pattern formed a new Green bearish butterfly, which gave over 1400 pips and with the action being at the first target (green) box now.
rgds - arco
redzone
29-08-2007, 02:59 PM
and where do you see it falling to
Hi Red
The wave count has a number of possibilities, so for now look at the uptrend line for possible support/target (circa 6500). If that breaks check with me again and I will give you the lower BF target box parameters.
I am presently riding the action down with a trailing stop until it gets hit.
regards - arco
how big is the trail arco
it bounced over 100 pips y'day arvo/evening. you trail larger than that ???
Hi Peat
Apologies for any confusion.
I had a very Major Gann support (Major+3) at .67266 where remaining shorts
were auto exited. A Dead cat bounce of sorts was sure to follow, therefore.....
I took a smaller long position with auto exit at the 1st Gann resistance .71784 (a tad early unfortunately)
Re-entered short again after bounce off old uptrend line and break back thru
Gann resistance, stop now trailing.
The wave pattern is confused at the moment, so its hard to know exactly where
the action is going next. Keep an eye on the Major Gann supports mentioned, because
if they and the weekly uptrend line break the target could be alot lower.
Present Gann calcs
Active Resistances
Minor .7178, Intermediate .7411
Active supports (potential targets)
Minor .6842,
and below that
Intermediate .6694 / Major .6665 / .6590
GTA - arco
i shorted from 7120 last night (on the way back up ) with target 6950 but only had a 30 pip stop so alas a few pips too stingy on the stop and got burned , quite disappointed when I saw how close i was to getting 170 pips.
I'm stopped out now but will re-enter shorts below 6880. Overall a good day - puts the dinner on the table! :-)
LOL
Close - Homemade fish & chips. Nothing too flash, but success makes them taste just that little bit better.
The Reserve Bank laid out $1.49 billion last month intervening in the foreign exchange market in a bid to slow the New Zealand dollar's rise - twice as much as it spent in June.
At the end of the month its net open foreign currency position had increased to $2.26 billion from $700 million at the end of June and from a foreign currency deficit of $58 million in May.
Despite the bank's selling, the kiwi climbed for most of July from US77c at the start of the month, reaching post-float highs of US80.6c and 76.7 on the trade-weighted index.
The appreciation was checked on July 26 when the bank raised the official cash rate for the fourth time this year, but said that would probably be it for the current cycle.
Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert said any enduring impact from that statement depended entirely on subsequent data proving weak - as it had for retail spending and the housing market in particular.
"Otherwise it would have looked like wishful thinking."
The dollar's subsequent decline, to around US70c over the past couple of weeks, was mostly because of the turmoil in world financial markets.
"Substantially, it has been the global unwind of leverage," he said.
"It has come the Reserve Bank's way by good fortune rather than good management, I suspect."
The dollar is now 6 per cent below where the bank's economic projections in the June monetary policy statement had assumed for the second half of this year.
It closed at US70.18c yesterday.
Good Fortune
* The Reserve Bank sold 1.49 billion New Zealand dollars last month.
* The dollar traded between US76.1c and US80.6c over the month. So, with the dollar now trading at around 70c, the Reserve Bank has made money.
* But the dollar's recent decline is thought to have more to do with global risk aversion than the bank's intervention.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10460885
dumbass
31-08-2007, 01:25 PM
hi arco ,sounds like alan knows a thing or two on how to make a bob on the markets, maybe he'd like to come along as well
Kiwi just breaking out of a beautiful symmetrical triangle. Assuming not a false signal minimum target should be 7147.
I have jumped on for the ride. I read on the wires that Bush is throwing some serious money at the Subprime related issues - probably will put some fire into the markets overnight.
Bugger. Got the breakout but only made it to just over 0.7100. Now broken back down to the low 0.700's. Not sure which way things are heading now so standing aside.
boysy
01-09-2007, 07:20 PM
Bush is sending mixed signals to market just watch how the fed acts in the short term
As I commented in the Gartley Butterfly thread the kiwi is forming a better proportioned wing creature than the Aussie
Here I have modified the Gartley to 'idealize' the B and D points. Real prices themselves are not too far away. Tho B never went high enough D is still clawing for the correct D level.
I've added Fib time zones to the picture as well and it points to Oct 5th being the approximate turning point. Notice how A and C turned early tho.
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/8730/nzdusddaily27092007gartmm9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
dumbass
27-09-2007, 11:17 PM
stalled a little at this gartley reversal zone maybe time for a breather
but being the kiwi probably not
I've added Fib time zones to the picture as well and it points to Oct 5th being the approximate turning point
3 more days so thats Fri and guess what this Fri is NFP
So heres my bold prediction - Strong (US) employment figures this week will herald a rally in USD.
Hi Peat
Yes, as we said on Sunday - so many levels reached on so many charts........surely has to be a sign. Maybe the power of the "herd behavior" bringing it all together.
I'll check out a couple of timing technqiues, - see if they correspond.
arco
Kiwi is raging buy right now I reckon
Gartley just completed on the 15 min
As you can see I've had couple of longs - first fdrom the 7605 level then closed one at C and set a limit which got triggered (pretty quickly ) while I slept - stop loss always at the 7585 levels http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/3728/nzdusd15min11102007bm4.th.jpg (http://img215.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nzdusd15min11102007bm4.jpg)
Let see if we get to 7660 quite quickly as the pattern suggests.
The longer this ranging action goes on the more likely that the eventual breakout (whichever way) will be more explosive.
so a maximum of 25 (very quick) pips on that trade was possible... but now its peeled back into the PPZ (profit protection zone) and I've closed it for minimal gain.....
I noted a bigger picture (1 hr candles) gartley possibility looking like D point might go as low as .7540 ish which may be playing out and counter to the smaller one I just tried.
Still, a reasonable trade tho imo - any trade that quickly goes into profit and offers the opportunity for some credit with minimal risk shouldnt be sniffed at.
As roddy says - back to the hatchery LOL
Morning All
We can see a definate Gartley shape forming with B382, and the current
high is 1618 wave A (or 1?). EW-wise this may be approaching the end of wave C(or 3?).
Direction has a south bias in the short/medium term IMO. Major Gann is still a little
way above, so we need to see a reversal confirmation signal before making any decision.
Heres a Pitchfork chart for a change, and you can definately see there
is potential for a Gartley termination (PRZ) around the PF centre tyne.
(PF in Red TBC = to be confirmed).
Peat - you appear to be scalping nicely with the short term BFs.
rgds - arco
Peat - you appear to be scalping nicely with the short term BFs.
I'm just photoshopping the trade points in after the event !! (kidding)
Hi All
A complex situation with a potential Gartley in the wings. (see chart below)
(But, as we are well aware these can always fly on to become BFs).
So a little caution here until we can get a better idea. The EOD black candle
is certainly the longest down move for a while.
EW-wise.
Its not clear IMO if the Kiwi is in a 335 ABC, or if this is a new impulse.
it hit the 78% retracment of the slide since 1 PM - not a gartley in shape , only in level.
so back to where I first shorted it.... and have done it again at 7476 stop at 7510
Peat
We are on the same wavelength ...just posted this on ALERT
yes its a bit like taking candy off a baby today.... it isnt always like this tho
I've closed one of my trades at +46 as I know I would do this in real life - left one running.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10473078
The Reserve Bank continued easing up on intervention in the foreign currency market, buying a net $6 million last month, figures on the bank's website show.
That compares with the net $138 million the central bank sold in August, and the $1.5 billion it sold in July. The figure also includes liabilities of the Government's Debt Management Office.
The Reserve Bank's net short currency position, which it has said is a better reflection of its currency dealings, fell to $2.41 billion from $2.56 billion in August.
dumbass
08-11-2007, 07:28 AM
possibilty of trend weakening
78.6 reversal zone
possibity of shooting star on dailys not printed yet
divergence on rsi
yeh I agree with that zone DA, heres the gartley to support that notion
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/2475/nzdusddaily08112007bk1.th.jpg (http://img219.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nzdusddaily08112007bk1.jpg)
this picture coming to you from FXTrade!!
Quick work Peat on the Oa Trade
Whats the plan of attack tonight?
Peat/DB
Short term maybe a slight retrace because we are
being held up on a Gann point 7812, but I think there
could be a little more juice in the Kiwi before a major
ABC fall can take place. 8056....or higher perhaps.
rgds - arco
Updating the chart...............
....................IMO in the short/medium term there is still potential for
a move further into the dotted red square before we see a nice ABC correction.
.
.
arco
so it didnt quite reach our short target with the yellow bearish gartley(nearly tho)
and now perhaps its giving us a signal to long with the green bullish gartley. The RSI has reached oversold for the second time and shows divergence on the hourly here.
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/9375/nzdusdhourly11112007smaqj5.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
I have taken out a very small long at .7605 stop at 7560
I have taken out a very small long at .7605 stop at 7560
which got blown out a few hours later.
when it bounced back up to my original entry point I shorted it (changed my direction) on the basis that the gartley failed as it went below X point.
stop at 7630 and have got some black ink tho its quite tenuous.
Also shouldnt really short term trade on Monday mornings when Oanda spreads are BIG.
closed @7520
+83 less the 40 I lost earlier.
so yeh I took a hit and learned the direction from that - only a small trade but has worked out okay.
also did a bigger one the Euro for +24 with those short term bearish gartleys that kept showing themselves today.
Its the demo account still , but I am taking it on board very seriously (that first failed trade really did hurt I swear! )
But I have just got confirmation of my fxtrade account being available and have now deposited funds tho these may take a day or two to show - soon, very soon twill be fo real
Hi Peat
Yes, that spread needs to be considered over the weekend as well.......I always widen stops if I have positions left running. Also if I trade on Mondays, I try to leave it until around mid-day when the spread goes back to normal.
The FX might not be moving as normal here tonight because I think the US are off today for the Veterans Day holiday.
arco
Further to post 820.
It appears that btw 12/10 to 13/11 the action may have produced a FLAT correction .....which means the retracment could now be over.......(DB is au fait with EW so he can perhaps have a look)
Its also possible the Kiwi print may come under the influence of a new emerging BF which if and when it plays out will create a potential new target circa 8250
If for any reason the price breaks below the recent Tweezer Bottom it could be that the last b-c leg is not compete. In that case the action could fall towards the higher end of the lower green box zone before heading to the target mentioned. (7280 is critical as lowest support).
rgds - arco
dumbass
15-11-2007, 09:19 PM
evening guys
in my count i have nzd in a double zig zag
currently in wave 1 of c of second zig zag
target 80 + or if momentum may carry to 82 +
it feels as though all majors ready for another run on usd imo
unfotunately i have wiped my data file for nzdusd from metastock so can only show last couple of months
emailed infoscan twice and they havent responded could anyone email a data file
DB
I can send you the NZD file if you can tell me where I can find it
rgds - arco
dumbass
15-11-2007, 09:52 PM
great arco
if you open nzdusd metastock graph
put your cursor on a candle and right click , select edit data
opens downloader and can copy spreadsheet
email to ancajoicey@yahoo.co.nz
thanks, paul
Hi DB
On its way to you now
rgds - arco
dumbass
15-11-2007, 10:07 PM
your a gentleman and a scholar
dumbass
16-11-2007, 08:21 AM
looks like possibity of wave 2 underway which if my count is applicable will allow a low risk
entry for wave 3 up
stop loss wave 1 low
possible entry around 50 - 61 retracement of wave 1
Hi DB
Checking for a potential turnaround wave 2 at the 618-786 Fibs.
(Gartley 382-618/786 perhaps??)
Low risk entry area 7490-7530 could be scaled in, or wait for reversal
pattern to appear. Current price 7532
Kiwi has given us around 70 pips so far off the trade idea
mentioned earlier today.
The daily chart looks very similar to Aussie, so in the short
term until the chart patterns becomes more clear longer term
positions are harder to predict with accuracy.
Taking decent size nibbles like we have today may be the way
to go until the situation is clearer IMO.
GTA - arco
a nibble for afternoon tea
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4369/nzdusd1min21112007yl9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/4369/nzdusd1min21112007yl9.dcb3dcc203.jpg (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=509&i=nzdusd1min21112007yl9.jpg)
dumbass
22-11-2007, 07:28 PM
imo currently running a 3rd wave of a c wave entered 7526 sl 7449
should hopefully run to about 7820 ish
still having problems getting my metastock nzd up and running but will post a chart soon
entered 7526 sl 7449
should hopefully run to about 7820 ish
it was a bit of a torturous ride DA! but the trade held and looking good this morning. my hedging position got (unintentionally) closed +100
hope you have held steadfast over the last wavering week.
dumbass
29-11-2007, 10:12 AM
morning peat
yeah has been slow but worth the wait
dumbass
05-12-2007, 07:53 AM
morning chaps , being counting this one
i reckon this is shaping up for a look at a short
nice count currently starting a 3 of a c wave down
Hi All
Refer to chart in post 826.....
...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.
After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO
rgds - arco
RBNZ leaves OCR unchanged at 8.25%
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain unchanged at 8.25 percent.
Governor Alan Bollard said “economic activity has occurred largely as outlined in the
September Monetary Policy Statement. Capacity pressures – particularly in the labour market
– remain significant, while the housing market has clearly slowed. A substantial income boost
is still expected to occur through 2008, as recent dairy price gains reach farmers.
Nevertheless, the outlook has changed somewhat due to recent developments. Oil prices,
which are nearly 30 percent higher than we assumed in September, and rapidly rising global
food prices are likely to result in headline inflation above 3 percent for much of next year. In
the medium term, despite ongoing fiscal surpluses, the likelihood of future personal tax cuts
adds to the inflation outlook.
There are considerable risks around our view. The price effects of the Government’s
proposed emissions trading scheme add upside risk to inflation. Global financial markets
remain unusually turbulent, posing significant downside risk for some of our key trading
partner economies.
Overall, inflationary pressures have increased, and interest rates are now likely to remain
around current levels for longer than previously thought. We believe that the current level of
the OCR remains consistent with future inflation outcomes of 1 to 3 percent on average over
the medium term, based on the information to hand at present.”
dumbass
06-12-2007, 09:35 PM
nzd usd up and running again
id view this trade as pretty low risk , count valid untill 77.60 breached
short 76.99 sl 77.65 target 74.30
Evening DB
Drop Leg Gartley 50-786 on the 4 hour adds fuel
to the fire IMO.............
arco
No reversal signal appeared on the possible 4hr drop leg Gart, in fact is seems the previous bullish Gartley 382-618 from 26th Nov is still in play and could head off towards 112-127 of XA where it should find resistance approachng the bear flag upper channel line. This in turn will create a potential bearish Gart 50-786 from 31st Oct
Patience Grasshopper, patience.....
dumbass
07-12-2007, 09:43 AM
i allways take it up the ass from the kiwi
****ing stupid little bird
DB
For a bird that cant fly it did well last night.
Anyway, you should be able to reclaim your loss and gain more....... shortly.
Clearly the 'b' leg was not quite complete at that point shown on the last chart.....so we still await the confirmation of a reversal.
Kiwi could still give us the potential to grab upto 400 pips..........awaiting the signal
Hi All
Refer to chart in post 826.....
...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.
After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO
rgds - arco
perhaps soon?
line 89 is a duplicate of 88
http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/5503/nzdhourly11122007mq0.th.jpg (http://img144.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nzdhourly11122007mq0.jpg)
Evening Peat
Yes, an interesting time for NZD.
The small blue Gartley is still a possibility at 50/886,
but we are still awaiting reversal confirmation.
__________________________________________
REINZ Data just in shows strong housing activity in Nov with a record median house price at NZD352k - can't be encouraging for those looking for a rate cut by the RBNZ who already face inflationary pressure from the dairy boom, increasing energy and fuel costs and food inflation.
The market was expecting to see some confirmation of the anecdotal slow down in the housing sector from these numbers so this positive figure would add fuel to perceptions that we see the RBNZ on a tightening rather than easing bias - supportive of a stronger NZD.
FOMC meet tomorrow with a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps.
dumbass
11-12-2007, 07:45 PM
hi peat , i guess one feasible outcome is an expanded flat taking the b wave to the
butterfly completion at 79.80
Evening DB
Yes anythings possible, and with the FOMC meet tomorrow and a probable rate cut in the US of at least 25bps that widening yield could be supportive of a stronger NZD.
yes strong fundys for sure.
Hi All
Refer to chart in post 826.....
...............this is the continuation chart which shows if in the small blue Gartley (50-786) the 'b' leg is complete then there is the potential for a fall to the boxes below where we have a confluence of targets. 50% of the previous up wave (red Gartley) may be a point to look towards some support coming in. There could also be an element of support to break around .7560 where 2 old uptrend line merge.
After this event plays out expect the possibility of a reversal and a move further north IMO
rgds - arco
Well as ocassionally happens Gartleys turn into BFs.
Woke up to find I have been taken in short, and currently +90
kiwi has been ranging for a few months now between .75 and .79 , possibly due for a buy again anytime
Moreover, a number of commentators make the point that if New Zealand's economy is threatened or actually softens, the Reserve Bank has plenty of scope to cut interest rates to get it moving again.
However, money markets are not pricing in significant expectations of such cuts this year. Indeed at least some market watchers such as Westpac chief economist Brendon O'Donovan are predicting further interest rate increases.
However Weldon sees the prospect of a continued hawkish stance from the RBNZ at the same time the US Federal Reserve is slashing interest rates to ward of recession as presenting perhaps the most worrying economic risk.
"If you were to see a situation where US interest rates fell, and ours rose and that differential got even bigger than it is now, you could see our exchange rate sit above US80c for a good period of time and that would rip the guts out of the export sector."
This is what academics write.... :confused:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/discusspapers/dp08_02.pdf
A lot of complicated maths but I'm not sure it was all worth it - the final paragraph conclusion doesnt really say much
5
Conclusions
This paper considers how certain data and monetary policy surprises have influenced the New Zealand dollar since 2000. As part of the investigation of the impact of monetary policy surprises, we rely on a variable that is not published (or even internally produced) by most central banks, namely the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forward interest rate track. In addition, we consider whether difference sources of announcements that have a bearing on the exchange rate, both of the verbal and quantitative varieties. We conclude that news does affect the exchange rate.
http://orly.yarly.org/orly.jpeg
In particular, we find that ‘bad’ inflation news, that is, an expectation
of a rise in future inflation, is ‘good’ news for the exchange rate, a finding that mirrors the one reported by Clarida andWaldman (2007).
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/734/untitled9vr.gif
More importantly perhaps,we do not conclude that the publication of an interest rate track represents central bank transparency gone too far insofar as the surprise element of such data dissipates rather quickly. Other news events, especially macro data announcements such as developments in the current account, potentially have a much larger impact on the exchange rate. We also find that the RBNZ has done a good job of minimizing the impact of surprises but that monetary policy announcements tend to have a permanent effect on the exchange rate. We take this as evidence that the RBNZ is credible. The evidence in this paper relies on an event study approach.
It is conceivable that a time series approach might yield additional insights into the high frequency determinants of the exchange rate. We leave this extension to future research.
This is what academics write.... :confused:
Conclusions
This paper considers how certain data and monetary policy surprises have influenced the New Zealand dollar since 2000. As part of the investigation of the impact of monetary policy surprises, we rely on a variable that is not published (or even internally produced) by most central banks, namely the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forward interest rate track. In addition, we consider whether difference sources of announcements that have a bearing on the exchange rate, both of the verbal and quantitative varieties. We conclude that news does affect the exchange rate.
More importantly perhaps,we do not conclude that the publication of an interest rate track represents central bank transparency gone too far insofar as the surprise element of such data dissipates rather quickly. Other news events, especially macro data announcements such as developments in the current account, potentially have a much larger impact on the exchange rate. We also find that the RBNZ has done a good job of minimizing the impact of surprises but that monetary policy announcements tend to have a permanent effect on the exchange rate. We take this as evidence that the RBNZ is credible. The evidence in this paper relies on an event study approach.
It is conceivable that a time series approach might yield additional insights into the high frequency determinants of the exchange rate. We leave this extension to future research.
PC crappaid for by us
Weldon summed it up in the herald this morning. Continuing the hawkish interest rate policy will sell NZ to foreigners as happened after the 1987 crash. Clearly since we stopped fixing the exchange rate, the RBNZ should at least set interest rates against international players - they have ceased to be a unique control of domestic activity or prices.
They are working on a dead paradigm. High interest rates contribute to domestic inflation. NZ's world beating interest rates rob kiwis to pay foreigners, and make kiwi companies uncompetitive because their cost of capital is prohibitive. Hence to survive they must go overseas and eventually the jobs go too. An efficient capital system is essential. The NZX is dying (actually a bit like the the US recession - already happened just not declared yet)
Control of the NZ economy has to be through balanced financial measures designed to maximise NZers Long term wealth (in the widest sense). Screwing up interest rates until the ship sinks is dumb. Jumping on band wagons like Kyoto without being able to negotiate terms appropriate to us is dumb - our delay costs us and the world nothing.
Items in finite supply will appreciate in value. Oil, water, food, useful energy, good land, nice places to live, etc. NZ has these in bucket loads but we continue to go backwards against others in the OECD. The trick to me seems to be to direct capital and other resources into productive activity. Interest rates can't do that on their own. Our whole society becomes more and more "short term focussed" the higher our interests rates go. You don't need economic consultants to improve the situation. A little applied common sense would go a long way.
(Cullen has killed the NZ economy. Sqeezed the life blood out of it. Perhaps his fund can now by NZ back although that would be contrary to declared intention and therefore not PC. One assumes that he will continue to send more of our devalued currency overseas to support their economies.
The economists will teach in a few years time that previous learned theories were BS and now we have new ones which must be right.
A monetarist will have worked out that the money supply has been increasing through these margin facilities, and dodgy credit schemes, Japan's zero interest rates and carry trades, every economy in the world printing cash, all contributing to asset inflation in those countries relying on state of the art economic theories and the dying concept where supply always increases to meet demand and lower prices.
On a similar vein...
I liked an article from a foreign academic (unfortunately I lost the reference and the full article is a bit big to post) "
Some Aspects of the Future Supply of Oil
Professor Ferdinand E. Banks
January 18, 2008
The University of Uppsala, Uppsala Sweden
The School of Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok Thailand "
"Saudi Arabia is still regarded as the primary exporter of oil to the main oil importing countries, and my contention both here and elsewhere is that a demonstrable willingness on their part to steadily increase output over the foreseeable future is perhaps the most bizarre fantasy ever put into circulation by the International Energy Agency (IEA)."
He contends that the Arabs are looking for long term wealth and will maximise their oil production to that extent.
Smacks of "a little bit of work life balance" economics to me. The more pay to the working wealthy implies the less work they need to do. The more money your house earns the less productive work you need to do...the higher the price people will pay for oil, the less you need to pump.
Anyway, one academic coming up with something worthwhile, more than we see from these guys for the RBNZ. What question were they asked to answer?
This is what academics write.... :confused:
Conclusions
This paper considers how certain data and monetary policy surprises have influenced the New Zealand dollar since 2000. As part of the investigation of the impact of monetary policy surprises, we rely on a variable that is not published (or even internally produced) by most central banks, namely the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s forward interest rate track. In addition, we consider whether difference sources of announcements that have a bearing on the exchange rate, both of the verbal and quantitative varieties. We conclude that news does affect the exchange rate.
More importantly perhaps,we do not conclude that the publication of an interest rate track represents central bank transparency gone too far insofar as the surprise element of such data dissipates rather quickly. Other news events, especially macro data announcements such as developments in the current account, potentially have a much larger impact on the exchange rate. We also find that the RBNZ has done a good job of minimizing the impact of surprises but that monetary policy announcements tend to have a permanent effect on the exchange rate. We take this as evidence that the RBNZ is credible. The evidence in this paper relies on an event study approach.
It is conceivable that a time series approach might yield additional insights into the high frequency determinants of the exchange rate. We leave this extension to future research.
PC crappaid for by us
Weldon summed it up in the herald this morning. Continuing the hawkish interest rate policy will sell NZ to foreigners as happened after the 1987 crash. Clearly since we stopped fixing the exchange rate, the RBNZ should at least set interest rates against international players - they have ceased to be a unique control of domestic activity or prices.
They are working on a dead paradigm. High interest rates contribute to domestic inflation. NZ's world beating interest rates rob kiwis to pay foreigners, and make kiwi companies uncompetitive because their cost of capital is prohibitive. Hence to survive they must go overseas and eventually the jobs go too. An efficient capital system is essential. The NZX is dying (actually a bit like the the US recession - already happened just not declared yet)
Control of the NZ economy has to be through balanced financial measures designed to maximise NZers Long term wealth (in the widest sense). Screwing up interest rates until the ship sinks is dumb. Jumping on band wagons like Kyoto without being able to negotiate terms appropriate to us is dumb - our delay costs us and the world nothing.
Items in finite supply will appreciate in value. Oil, water, food, useful energy, good land, nice places to live, etc. NZ has these in bucket loads but we continue to go backwards against others in the OECD. The trick to me seems to be to direct capital and other resources into productive activity. Interest rates can't do that on their own. Our whole society becomes more and more "short term focussed" the higher our interests rates go. You don't need economic consultants to improve the situation. A little applied common sense would go a long way.
(Cullen has killed the NZ economy. Sqeezed the life blood out of it. Perhaps his fund can now by NZ back although that would be contrary to declared intention and therefore not PC. One assumes that he will continue to send more of our devalued currency overseas to support their economies.
The economists will teach in a few years time that previous learned theories were BS and now we have new ones which must be right.
A monetarist will have worked out that the money supply has been increasing through these margin facilities, and dodgy credit schemes, Japan's zero interest rates and carry trades, every economy in the world printing cash, all contributing to asset inflation in those countries relying on state of the art economic theories and the dying concept where supply always increases to meet demand and lower prices.
On a similar vein...
I liked an article from a foreign academic (unfortunately I lost the reference and the full article is a bit big to post) "
Some Aspects of the Future Supply of Oil
Professor Ferdinand E. Banks
January 18, 2008
The University of Uppsala, Uppsala Sweden
The School of Engineering, Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok Thailand "
"Saudi Arabia is still regarded as the primary exporter of oil to the main oil importing countries, and my contention both here and elsewhere is that a demonstrable willingness on their part to steadily increase output over the foreseeable future is perhaps the most bizarre fantasy ever put into circulation by the International Energy Agency (IEA)."
He contends that the Arabs are looking for long term wealth and will maximise their oil production to that extent.
Smacks of "a little bit of work life balance" economics to me. The more pay to the working wealthy implies the less work they need to do. The more money your house earns the less productive work you need to do...the higher the price people will pay for oil, the less you need to pump.
Anyway, one academic coming up with something worthwhile, more than we see from these guys for the RBNZ. What question were they asked to answer?
on the 3 hour chart , technically (using a gartley approach) , the kiwi and the ozzie are buys with stops below .75 and .868
heres the chart for the kiwi - the bullish gartley is close to the ideal scenario with a .618 retracement followed by a rally and then another retracement to .78. Timewise the gartley is a bit stunted but price should always overrule time. The only other negative is that an AB=CD would take the kiwi down to .7477
I think that arco's advice might be good here i.e to wait for confirmation of an uptrend as the size of the pattern is large enough to still make it tradeable when it gets going , tho I have a very small ozzie long already with more toe dipping a bit lower.
Morning Peat
The Kiwi idea looks reasonable as I see the action might try a
test of the broken TL (and 200 sma) before falling to circa 7288 perhaps.
rgds - arco
ok so you dont think its going to go as far as I was..... still if it was traded with a rising stop could still produce useful pips
interestingly I already had a fib level with a 261 extension at your 7288 level
Peat
Trailing is a good idea IMO.
Perhaps 7750+/- is possible if there is a trendline intersect.
arco +
Bank of America
buy kiwi but sell two days close below 75.27
Citigroup
sell kiwi but buy at 78.2
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602097&sid=aOjHHrN0w97s&refer=world_currencies
...... interesting Peat.
Heres my idea on a chart.......currently waiting for the
confirmation turnaround candle for a little long and 100 +/- pips.
(Then there could be a nice reversal short in 5 legs for 400-600 pips)
---------PTZ .7288.....or possibility of lower towards .7150
Just took a 100 pips on the EY - so off to a nice start this week so far.
GTA - arco
At the moment we only have 3 major contributors to the Forex section.
The FX side would appear to be in serious decline.......
But what i find amazing is that 50 people have read this NZD thread since I posted last night but not one has even made a comment - good, bad or indifferent.
A forum suvives because of its contributers......
So lurkers.....if you find the forum helpful, interesting of even plain boring - it perhaps might be a good idea to make a contribution (however small) before the few remaining posters leave for good.
arco
Steve
22-01-2008, 07:14 PM
So those who still talk of the NZD/USD climbing back to the 80s in the near term due to NZ retaining current interest rates and US dropping theirs, are possibly being over-optimistic?
DoctorG
22-01-2008, 08:30 PM
I find it really interesting, but don't post because I don't know enough, I would love to be able to make a living trading on the foreign exchange market, and mayeven have enough mobney, but I don't have the knowledge really, yet!
It seems to me though the Kiwi will stay strong against the dollar for quite a while, isn't the dollar weak against nearly all currencies world wide?
Has'nt the US governement borrowed to the hilt, to pay for the war on Iraq, which is really an excuse for George w bush, to pay companies his mates own, heaps of money stolen from the US govt, and at the same time allow the price of oli to go hugely high, which again helps his oil mates from Texas.
DoctorG
Welcome.
If you decide to trade currencies you can chose to work with the fundamental issues, or trade using charting techniques. I work on the latter and that suits my style perfectly.
Trust you will stay around and post any queries you have regarding the currencies. There are a number of fundamentally orientated people here that can perhaps give you more on those issues than I can, but I'm happy to answer any charty questions you may have.
rgds - arco
Steve
this would be the 'fundamental' reason for the kiwi sell-off
As a result of investors' flight from risky assets, the New Zealand dollar's slide against the greenback accelerated to a four-month low today. From around US76c at yesterday's local close, the kiwi fell to US74.5c, shedding 6 per cent in value in just over a week.
the world scenario is blowing up a little bit with carry trades now being out of favour so yeh a bit of dumping going on.
Steve
I'm probably not the best person to answer fundamentally,
so perhaps someone else can make a comment on that.
However,
have a gander at the Ichi chart......the Kumo support which
has held so long has been broken on the daily, with the weekly
already into the cloud.
rgds - arco
lakedaemonian
22-01-2008, 09:20 PM
At the moment we only have 3 major contributors to the Forex section.
The FX side would appear to be in serious decline.......
But what i find amazing is that 50 people have read this NZD thread since I posted last night but not one has even made a comment - good, bad or indifferent.
A forum suvives because of its contributers......
So lurkers.....if you find the forum helpful, interesting of even plain boring - it perhaps might be a good idea to make a contribution (however small) before the few remaining posters leave for good.
arco
I've been sitting on the sidelines of FX forum for some time.
Not due to disinterest....just lack of quality input(on my part).
As I mentioned when I first joined this forum, I tend to invest with long-term fundamentals at my back in case a trade goes sour....unfortunately i'm finding it harder to understand the fundamentals.
the more I dig, the more confused I become.....
I don't know if it's a case of "analysis paralysis" or a case of realizing that the more I learn, the less I really know.
I've listened to compelling arguments that support both the substantial rise and substantial fall of the Kiwi against the greenback recently......Retaining or conservatively growing my purchasing power globally is my objective for the foreseeable future.....HOW to achieve that objective(from the FX angle) is yet to be determined! :)
lakedaemonian
I have to admit I get pretty confused with all that fundi info out there,
so that why I stick to the charts. Better the devil you know ......
With charts you have a game plan..........with fundi's, it a case
of too many possibilities IMO
arco
Before zooming north overnight the action ventured
into the PTZone (lower pink box) shown on the last
chart - a little quicker than expected. We could now
be seeing the test of the broken TL mentioned.
Watching for a possible reversal off that point
this was a risky but satisfying scalp and 10+11+15 = 36 pips.
theres so often something to be had off a 78% retracement
this is how I'm seeing it on the 15minute. First a W and now an M
I have small longs already placed but the next buy order at the 78% retracement .7765. Price did go there twice earlier so may not again - and was very close to filling a few minutes ago.
Stops at -30 for each trade.
You are certainly a bold fella Peat..............especially with where things are at the moment, awaiting the fed decision. :-)
the risk is well quantified FTG
the trade meets my criteria so....
I believe that announcement is not till 830 our time tomorrow - a 30 pip stop might be too tight when that happens.
7764 order now filled as well.
see how it goes.
closed the main order (largish for me) +48 -
chickens left to run.
Well done Sir!
I must admit it was the 30 pip stop that had ???? for me, but hey it has worked just fine for you!
dumbass
31-01-2008, 07:18 AM
nailed it peat and time for a cup of tea before the fed
well done
and the chickens came home to roost +100 while I was at the dentist.
no fillings either so a good start to the day. :D
roddy
31-01-2008, 09:46 PM
Peat
nice trade and the trading you have been doing of late Peat could of paid for quite a bit of dentistry!
peat you said
>the risk is well quantified FTG
>the trade meets my criteria so...
i have just reread john j Murphy's classic Technical analysis of the financial Markets 1999 ed
and in it he echoes the same words of having a trading system or as you put it meeting a criteria!
i am still lacking discipline in this area but can only improve
cheers
roddy
Trading very flat at the moment but am bullish on the Kiwi for the moment. Feeling bearish on the US at the moment but it is not falling very quickly. So i will be in for a long trade. Almost a US carry trade. Fundamentally the US will be under pressure for a while and interest rates may have another cut at the next fed meeting. The Kiwi interest rates are still may have 1 more upside.
Steve
01-02-2008, 05:12 PM
the risk is well quantified FTG
the trade meets my criteria so....
I believe that announcement is not till 830 our time tomorrow - a 30 pip stop might be too tight when that happens.
7764 order now filled as well.
see how it goes.
Peat, without getting in to minute detail, could you please give a brief outline of your criteria?
last week was just compression so could become more interesting when the range breaks.
looking back over the last couple of weeks since my last post, the compression broke falsely twice in the first week , but last week clearly demonstrated its intentions. with a price gap on Monday and has reached the mid 82s (as suggested by Arco last November) and then decisively turned.
I'm trying to interpret the candles on the 27th and 28th (the third and second to last ones in the picture) and at first I thought a shooting star followed by a doji, hence bearish signs but upon further investigation a shooting star should close lower than it opened and my 27th candle is green not red
Also the 28th was a doji-ish (only 10 pips diff betw open and close) but altho technically that was actually a bullish dragonfly doji. Tho in general a doji represents indecision and a potential reversal - wasnt really going to reverse up from 82). So even in hindsight the signals were a bit cloudy.
in the bigger long term tho - this graph is monthly - it seems that there should be a lot of support in the 70's (yes I know thats potentially a 1000 pips down) but this is a monthly perspective.
In late 1996 and early 1997 the .7 area was resistance and 9 years later (after going as low as .4) then in 2004 and 2005 .7 and .75 were resistance areas again. But we've decisively breached that area in the last year or two so they (the mid to low 70s) supposedley become support levels, and while they might be tested again , if they were to hold could point the way to even greater highs over the very long term.
These are my thoughts looking on a quiet Sunday afternoon - not really a trading strategy but stepping back a bit to see the big picture.
in the bigger long term tho - this graph is monthly - it seems that there should be a lot of support in the 70's (yes I know thats potentially a 1000 pips down) but this is a monthly perspective.
In late 1996 and early 1997 the .7 area was resistance and 9 years later (after going as low as .4) then in 2004 and 2005 .7 and .75 were resistance areas again. But we've decisively breached that area in the last year or two so they (the mid to low 70s) supposedley become support levels, and while they might be tested again , if they were to hold could point the way to even greater highs over the very long term.
These are my thoughts looking on a quiet Sunday afternoon - not really a trading strategy but stepping back a bit to see the big picture.
It is sobering to think that the NZD/USD has gone from 0.4 to 0.8 in the past 7yrs!
No wonder I gave up trying to export while the domestic lads were doing it so easily...and then the labour government poured increased taxes and interest rates onto us...not only me I guess, you would have to had a considerable competitive advantage (or no USD exposure) to have survived a change of this magnitude over a short time like this.
living2
03-03-2008, 05:46 PM
When will the market start pricing in a NZ interest rate drop?
Steve
03-03-2008, 10:43 PM
When will the market start pricing in a NZ interest rate drop?
Mid-year? As rates are not expected to drop to near years-end?
living2
04-03-2008, 01:46 PM
Is it not breaking 20 day MA now??
Steve
04-03-2008, 09:49 PM
Is it not breaking 20 day MA now??
Currently half a cent above the 20MA on the daily...
Hi All
Been a while away from forex for me, but back in now.
Taken this short a couple of times over the last 48 hours
behaving nicely
looking to penetrate the double bottom on the hourly at .7925 or reverse on a bounce
gta
slam
PS may get a third (c) wave of the FIB first
...PS may get a third (c) wave of the FIB first
And it did :o
quoting the herald quoting Bollard
"Despite increased global risk aversion, it is not yet evident that the carry trade is dead. We have still seen a relatively strong issuance in the New Zealand dollar in recent months via uridashi bonds, for example.
"The role that hedge funds can play at the stage where an over-valued exchange rate begins to adjust back to a more normal level is also unclear. Whether hedge funds assist the adjustment process or whether they make it more abrupt and costly is debatable."
Trade still open
moving nicely at 120+ pips
anyone else playing this pair?
Cheers
Slam
i'm still running a short kiwi vs AUD, slam, from 1480 . currently 1610
pulled back a bit last night tho....
running that one to peat
should bounce from here imo ( I'm long AUD/NZD)
gta slam
Steve
17-03-2008, 11:06 PM
Tickled and failed at 82 again today. Very volatile, but could it be topping or preparing for a run up tp 85?
Got well and truly stopped on last weeks short
and missed this weeks:(
Maybe get next weeks:)
Cheers
Slam
Steve
12-04-2008, 09:52 PM
With the latest NZ data released showing that the economy is slowing down fast, it is now considered unlikely that the NZDUSD will test a new high, so possibly time to consider a decent short?
My thoughts too. Dailies are showing a descending triangle with the floor at 0.785...
large short triggered last night on spike over .8
see how we go
Currently+65
Cheers
Slam
Steve
24-04-2008, 03:28 PM
large short triggered last night on spike over .8
see how we go
Currently+65
Cheers
Slam
This mornings RB announcement has supported your position...
Gone short tonight on a trendline break. Let's see whether I can earn money in my sleep :). Timeframes on forex are quite tricky compared with indices.
Steve
29-04-2008, 07:58 PM
Gone short tonight on a trendline break. Let's see whether I can earn money in my sleep :). Timeframes on forex are quite tricky compared with indices.
It appears that you would have had a profitable nights sleep! :)
Yes it was...however, what happens during the fed's announcements? Is trading halted? Any chance of a large gap through a stop?
Steve
30-04-2008, 07:45 PM
Yes it was...however, what happens during the fed's announcements? Is trading halted? Any chance of a large gap through a stop?
Trading continues and sometimes there can be sizable gaps... :)
Closed out for +68, being my first position trade with forex I won't risk playing with Bernanke's power. I was't all that satisfied with my entry to be honest (Entered on a trendline break on the 5 min chart and then used the dailies to find the stop!:() Will also really need to make up my mind about those timeframes.
large short triggered last night on spike over .8
see how we go
Currently+65
Shorts closed and looking for a bounce of the .7725 base to reset
Cheers
Slam
Yes things looking a bit bumpy right now...up to 7807 again.
Belumat1
05-05-2008, 10:11 AM
The US dollar is in transition from short-term recovery into medium-term rebound.
Honestly I think the NZD Strong Age ...... IS OVER !!
Personally I opened short position against NZD.
I m sorry mates, but I need money.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/SB4xqTpkC0I/AAAAAAAAACc/oCNZxq1NHcw/s1600/dollar%2Bvs%2Ball%2Bother%2Bcurrencies%2B%2B2%2Bma y%2B08.JPG
bye
dumbass
05-05-2008, 10:21 AM
hi belumat good to see your back
the link you posted is not working
seems you and I skipped the same I.T. classes at school
interested to see you views or charts on dow
Shorts closed and looking for a bounce of the .7725 base to reset
Cheers
Slam
Shorts back in play
Bounce came close to 100 day MA (.7865) which was my target to reset shorts.
Cheers
Slam
Belumat1
05-05-2008, 11:14 AM
Let's try a test.
Tell me which graph you can see :
1) http://chart.findata.co.nz/?e=FOREX&s=NZDGBP&w=476&h=360&n=5500
2) http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t07877153255&r=3235
3) http://bp1.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/SB4xqTpkC0I/AAAAAAAAACc/oCNZxq1NHcw/s320/dollar+vs+all+other+currencies++2+may+08.JPG
maybe I understood !!
It 's always Monday morning.
I think Dumbass you are right.
Thank you and forgive me
Hi Belumat1
1) opens in a Web page
2) has no link so you need to cut and paste it into a browser address
3) opens a file in a picture viewer
1) is the easiest to use
Hope this helps
Cheers
Slam
Belumat1
05-05-2008, 11:32 AM
Well done Slam !
Thank for your advise.
It's been perfect.
Since now ...... no more problems
bye
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=6
Hm...a reverse head and shoulders pattern just got confirmed on the hourlies...I'm staying clear for now. Dailies are still in a downtrend.
Should have gone long on that...would have been a nice 40 pips.
Going short now on bouncing off resistance at 0.7870...ideally I would have waited for a breakout from the rectangle, but this was quite a tight stop. Still have this feeling that I'm trying to pick tops :(
Should have gone long on that...would have been a nice 40 pips.
Going short now on bouncing off resistance at 0.7870...ideally I would have waited for a breakout from the rectangle, but this was quite a tight stop. Still have this feeling that I'm trying to pick tops :(
Stopped out, only for it to keep falling. Halting my forex trading pending a review of my entry and exit systems.:mad:
New Zealand Dollar Falls as Employment Drops Most in 19 Years
By Tracy Withers
May 8 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar fell for a second day after a government report showed employment contracted in the first quarter, adding to signs that economic growth is slowing and increasing the prospects of an interest-rate cut.
The currency slid to the lowest this week after the report showed employment had its biggest fall in 19 years and the unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent in the first quarter. Employers shed 28,000 workers in the quarter, more than 10 times the decline expected by economists.
``A weak employment number is confirmation of the economic slowdown,'' said Michael Gordon (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Michael+Gordon&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. ``The market is looking for confirmation of a slowdown to justify selling the kiwi,'' he said, referring to the currency by its nickname.
New Zealand's dollar slid to 77.79 U.S. cents at 10:50 a.m. in Wellington from 78.17 cents before the report and 78.62 cents in late Asian trading yesterday.
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said yesterday the outlook for the economy has deteriorated. Banks shouldn't tighten lending too much or that might ``exacerbate the contraction,'' Bollard told reporters.
Finance Minister Michael Cullen said yesterday households ``are under serious pressure'' and this month's budget will forecast slowing growth.
The economy may grow 1.5 percent this year, the slowest in a decade, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Economy to Slow
Eleven of 16 economists expect Bollard to cut rates from 8.25 percent this year. Four see lower borrowing costs before Sept. 30. A lower official cash rate may curb demand for the currency. New Zealand's benchmark rate is 6.25 percentage points higher than the Federal Reserve's target rate and 7.5 points more than Japan's benchmark.
New Zealand 10-year government bonds were unchanged. The yield on the 6 percent note due December 2017 was at 6.43 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tracy Withers (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Tracy+Withers&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in Wellington at twithers@bloomberg.net.
There was a quite obvious Butterfly and Gartley
that came together on the intraday time frames.....
I snapped this chart earlier just after the announcment
Hi All
Looking at circa .7550 as low on current channel to exit.
Will cover/reverse on a bounce
May have another wave to go before then.(4/5)
Been in this channel now since March
Anyone else surfing it?
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes I was in for 42 pips off the fall
rgds - arco
Maybe turning down again for 5th leg
Target as below
Cheers
Slam
i also got 40 pips on Friday night from 7697 - 7658
it seems to have bearish gartleyd since 7750 making it a sell at 7720 tho I wasnt there to partake (currently 7695)
just closed for another 50 thanks slam
was a bit slow getting in last night , looking for a bit more confirmation which I felt I had at 7686 and have just closed now at 7636....
if I'd playd the gartley with conviction it would have been 80 pips. 50 is ok tho. kiwi hasnt a history of doing me any favours....
Hi Peat
Nice
I'm still holding for .7550ish
Broken .7630 so still possible
Will cover on a bounce (got tight stops)
Cheers
Slam
Closed shorts on spike down at .7560
on bad news "March/Q1 Retail Trade Far Weaker Than Expected"
Let see what happens now hey
Cheers
Slam
any ideas why the kiwi is going up so strongly after the budget.
its not a USD thing....
tax cuts and govt spending may add to inflationary pressures meaning the reserve bank may not drop rates. that would be my guess.
-j
Steve
22-05-2008, 08:01 PM
any ideas why the kiwi is going up so strongly after the budget.
its not a USD thing....
Because I took a short on the NZDUSD the other day...
ah b.ugger Steve
yeh I was short last night too but closed out with a mere 30
events are dangerous times to be in the mkt.
Steve
26-05-2008, 09:06 PM
The NZD has stabilised following the budget, waiting for the next RBNZ announcement to indicate how the future rate cuts have been delayed.
It is unlikely that any new highs will be threatened...
roddy
26-06-2008, 08:25 PM
Hi Peat/DB
the kiwi is still contained in its down channel i have two shorts on the kiwi 7589 and 7571, sl 7619 looking for a first target of 7450 area, then 161 area maybe, think reasonable prob with 3 doiji and continuing negative data coming out
roddy
27-06-2008, 12:22 PM
Hi ALL
Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!
Hi ALL
Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!
i wondered if the big lads just decided to do it in their own time - late at night - it is Friday after all....
Hi ALL
Not quite the sell down i was looking for with GDP, i think the market had already factored it in exited at 7544 for a few pips banked!
The New Zealand dollar rebounded today from an overnight slump despite soft GDP data.
In a counter-intuitive move the kiwi climbed against all currencies despite news the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the March quarter.
ANZ chief dealer Murray Hindley said it was a classic short squeeze.
The data was no worse than economists' forecasts, and the selling after was mild, traders who had shorted the kiwi were squeezed.
Short traders sell a currency on expectation they can buy back cheaper when the exchange rate is lower.
The kiwi, which had opened on US75.57c, closed on US76.05c.
Against the aussie it ended on A79.35c from its A79.04c opening. It fell overnight to around A78.75c, the lowest level in nearly seven years.
The kiwi's rise was also in spite of a pounding equity markets around the world took, lead by Wall Street which plunged 3 per cent.
In recent times a fall in equities has led to a fall in the kiwi as traders flee risk.
Some economists believe the second quarter growth will be worse than the first but with that quarter almost over, the worst may be nearly over.
Westpac economist Dominick Stephens said "we've probably lived through the absolute worst of this recession.
"The third quarter should be not as bad as the second quarter. We do think the whole of 2008 is going to be a pretty sharp correction for people, particularly urban consumers."
I think the ANZ were very pleased with themselves!
Unfortunately NZ is in deep trouble, very sick we are. It is just that these (Australian Bank) economists keep looking backwards. There will be no productive sector left to recover by the time they agree that Bollard should drop the interest rates.
The ANZ may not have the last laugh...
roddy
15-07-2008, 12:48 PM
HI Peat/DB,
I have been getting hammered lately on shorting the kiwi so just wondering whether this scenario might play out.What are your thoughts?
B AT .50 and D at .886 to make a bearish bat,the kiwi would have to brake out of its downtrend channel to achieve this scenario
what time is the announcement today?
dumbass
24-07-2008, 08:31 AM
9.00
im going to trade it , you having a punt
ah yeh I see its on their website 9 am
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0092224.html
I'll buy a small amount at 7460 but its tricky for me I'm walking to work at that time...
dumbass
24-07-2008, 09:04 AM
got 60 pips but it dived a wopping 140 pips in seconds
check this out peat
spreads went over 40 pips on Oanda... insane.... got stopped in the same minute.... but the reaction seems muted now that spreads are back to normal
DoctorG
28-07-2008, 10:45 AM
wheres the kiwi going over the next three months?
The possible direction of the Kiwi over the next 3 months..............
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdUUx5FdySs
Toddy
04-08-2008, 08:47 PM
wheres the kiwi going over the next three months?
Ask John Key
roddy
04-08-2008, 10:02 PM
HI TODDY
it would be interesting to know how he traded,what setups, patterns,he used
etc
cheers
roddy
roddy
05-08-2008, 09:17 PM
Hi All,
i am short at 7279 and 7268 on the kiwi and my target is .70 cent area,next fib level Re chart,first hurdle is to break 72
dumbass
08-08-2008, 07:27 PM
nice trade roddy , target hit
Hi All
Closed last short
The channel NZD has been in since March has been great
Broken below now, so will have to re-evaluate next trade
Looking for a bounce to reset
I think the 70c hurdle may take a few attempts to break
Cheers
Slam
roddy
11-08-2008, 07:57 PM
Thanks DB,
I have been trying to evaluate whether to hold my short on the NZD/JPY its broken through triangle on the daily but in comparison has retraced further than the kiwi/usd which to reach the 38.2 fib would need to be around .65,so perhaps mite be more opportunity there,tho as slam points out its quite a major level and may take some breaking
dumbass
11-08-2008, 09:09 PM
yeah take a bow roddy ,
my feeling is a counter trend rally is underway i have closed out a short on gbpjpy
im really convinced its going to break lower and hard, but feel i can use this counter trend
rally to short higher up , so i think nzd jpy should be similar.
long on eur usd 149 90 targeting 151 50 but being very careful
Planetram
11-08-2008, 10:29 PM
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..aybody have any recommendations?
Hi All
Well I reset a short position ( small one) on the spike to .7070
Has pushed through .70 but not convincingly.
Still think a bigger bounce is on the cards, but I'll scalp 80pips in the mean time.
Dailys way oversold, but we could get a fall to .6640 before real support appears.
Interesting week ahead I think
Cheers
Slam
Big wide ranging candle yesterday (spinning top/one day reversal?). Is this the start of the bounce?
__________________
Thinking out aloud...........
Just wonder if Kiwi could be under the influence of the large red mishapen BF.
In while case its eventual destination could be the dark grey box below.
Currently the green BF and Gartley could produce a northern run where the old support may then create resistance for a further fall.
Any thoughts on the EW count DB
rgds - arco
Planetram
Hi i have researching a good platform for trading FX options particularly the NZ/US..anybody have any recommendations?
You could look at Oanda they have 'box options'....I have a real account with Oanda, but I haven't used the box options myself.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_trading/fxtrade/fxbox_options/
arco
Dr_Who
19-08-2008, 11:34 AM
Why is the $NZ so strong?
Dr Who
There was an expectancy (check post #956)
dumbass
19-08-2008, 03:49 PM
sorry arco , missed your request for an elliot count , will rectify tout de suite
dumbass
19-08-2008, 07:49 PM
expanded flat currently in a c wave
multi year trendline to break and then heading for at least 60 and probably quite quickly
Hi DB
Thanks for the EW count and summary.
That pretty much agrees with the conclusion in my post and chart #956
......................Could be a nice southern flight (for a flightless bird).
arco
i do find it weird when the b of the abc goes above 5 tho..
Know what you mean Peat........
In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/members/tutorial/images/fig1-37.gif
Dr_Who
20-08-2008, 08:59 AM
Dr Who
There was an expectancy (check post #956)
What are about the fundamentals that is driving it up? IS it just short covering that is driving it up in the short term?
Dr Who
You will need to ask a fundamentalist that question.
...........My trading is based on technical analysis
rgds -arco
What are about the fundamentals that is driving it up? IS it just short covering that is driving it up in the short term?
re fundymental , heres a story. i still prefer the pretty pictures myself. and I think Max probably does too, but he is no doubt expected to write something for his clients to read.
the Aussie’s sharp sell-off was largely due to the fall in raw commodity prices; in contrast, New Zealand’s exports are ‘soft’ commodities (i.e.foodstuffs) and these prices have not declined nearly as much as industrial and precious metals.
Thus, the “guilt by association” sell-off in the Kiwi is now being unwound - as demonstrated by its bounce against the AUD in recent days. A further positive for the Kiwi is that the carry-trade crowd may emerge from the woodwork again soon, unable to resist borrowing Yen at 1% and investing in NZD at 8%. And, of course, these days, the forward points on long NZD/short USD are pretty attractive too.
Technically, NZD/USD is undergoing a corrective recovery back toward Resistance around the mid .7200’s
Hi Peat
Thanks for posting that interesting note from Max........seems to mirror roughly the early stages of my chart idea from post #956.
Only time will tell.............
arco
so i averaged in at 7120 during the pull back last evening. 1/4 closed at +90 stop raised to 7170 for the remainder.
.
Nice one Peat. Good when a plan comes together.
I was also long Euro.......TP got hit overnight.
rgds-arco
Spotted this on the hourlies last night. A busted ascending triangle with a false breakout, complete with RSI divergence. Looking OK on the dailies as well. Up 40 odd pips so far.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=15&pictureid=41
Just picking up a bit of USD strength after the Lehman brothers bankruptcy. I'm short at 6582 SL at 6623.
Trailing very aggressively this trade, if even a hint of reversal comes up I'm out.
Not sure if you are still in or out AMR.....
I took +50 pips before retiring, leaving a balance on (with target 126 pips) but it got stopped at +5.
Still a nice win and a good day on a few others as well.
Was up 40 odd pips at one stage but decided to let it run. Stopped out at -18 pips. Ah well, "letting it run" clearly isn't a good idea in this market.
lakedaemonian
09-10-2008, 12:02 AM
Kiwi just fell off a cliff
lakedaemonian
09-10-2008, 07:48 AM
Looks like a 400+ pip swing until it recovered a bit.
I'd have to say that's the biggst single day swing I recall ever seeing with the Kiwi
Juggernaut
09-10-2008, 12:51 PM
Anyone know the cause of the big dip today?
winner69
27-10-2008, 08:54 PM
Kiwi just fell off a cliff
That was a few weeks ago .... whats the last few days action then ..... 54 something now
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
Dr_Who
07-01-2009, 01:53 PM
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Not that I take much notice of polls, but spotted this today on Stuff
A recent Reuters poll put the kiwi weakening toward US52c-US53c in the first part of 2009.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4811020a13.html
So y'day I thought I put my hand to the challenging Kiwi... 4 trades of which the first two failed.
The first short was off a very small time frame gartley (not drawn) but got stopped only because I moved the stop down from its original placement above the green line.
The second long also failed but the final two longs off the gartley in green and yellow worked a treat while I slept.
time to change direction again and go short as we bounce off the 78% retracement of the high at just below .61 stop could conservatively be placed just above .60 (the recent high) but the rules say 61 (X).
strange that the gartley in the previous trade was misshapen in the same way that this one on the bigger time frame (1 hour) is with normal XA but an extended AB. could mean somethings wrong so I'm not recommending this trade to others but I'm doing it. risking last nights spoils.
sorry about the quotes in the pic... having a few display problems
Aussie
07-01-2009, 08:44 PM
I ve also been keeping an eye in NZDUSD.
IT is bad news for NZ economy for USD weakness. Export is our only saviour. If our export sector gets hit and there is a drought, I would hate to see what will happen to the NZ economy.
Good thing we have a currency trader as PM right? No, seriously!
Dr_Who
08-01-2009, 07:52 AM
Good thing we have a currency trader as PM right? No, seriously!
a few weeks back he predicted NZD to be below 50 cents when NZD was at 56 cents and now it is near 60 cents. Seriously, he would have made a lost if he was long. :eek:
a few weeks back he predicted NZD to be below 50 cents when NZD was at 56 cents and now it is near 60 cents. Seriously, he would have made a lost if he was long. :eek:
He's obviously one of the 95%
So, best thing to do is use him as a contra indicator :)
trade on post #985 looking to start the payback now after testing .6040 (so a conservative stop would have been hit - as I said its best to play with the proper rules). Another thing to notice is that there was a 78% retracement of the spike up and perhaps another way of trading this is to wait for that and then sell at that level OR to wait for the C wave of that bit to go lower than the A wave and sell there...
Dr_Who
08-01-2009, 09:57 AM
Would have been a nice short at 60 cents. I was close to shorting it, but decided not to after talking to a friend. :(
Aussie
08-01-2009, 10:52 AM
a few weeks back he predicted NZD to be below 50 cents when NZD was at 56 cents and now it is near 60 cents. Seriously, he would have made a lost if he was long. :eek:
You are right about that. I don't think a lot of people take the USD problems seriously. Obama just announced that the US is likely to run $ Trillion deficits for many years to come . . . that sounds pretty dollar negative to me.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/us/politics/07obama.html?_r=2&hp
TBH I dont think you can take that sort of prediction (John Key)seriously - especially not from a traders perspective. its more like an economists prediction which may work for companies putting a hedging programme in place but wont work for traders unless they have very deep pockets (soon to be emptied).
Also, he really should keep his trap shut on these matters now that he is PM. Its so wrong for him to be jawboning the markets
ABN Amro suggested in their December newsletter that the Kiwi might go to 48 in 2009 but thought it wouldnt go much lower than that. But yeh this is not useable information for me.
Aussie
08-01-2009, 02:10 PM
. . . Also, he really should keep his trap shut on these matters now that he is PM. Its so wrong for him to be jawboning the markets . . .
You're dead right about that. I think HC and a few of her ministers learned that lesson.
Would have been a nice short at 60 cents. I was close to shorting it, but decided not to after talking to a friend. :(
The saying is "Would've, could've, should've, DIDNT!"
I did try to convince you Dr.
Getting close to my initial target of .5820 now where I will take some profit and leave some to run.
2/3rd closed 10 pips shy of target at .5830 from sell at .5958 :D
Dr_Who
09-01-2009, 01:20 PM
Should I short NZD today at .5940?
Aussie
10-01-2009, 12:01 AM
Should I short NZD today at .5940?
I would be careful. I'm am not a currency trader but if the USD resumes it's slide lower with any gusto in the weeks ahead, that's likely to drive the AUD and NZD higher short term . . . hope I'm not missing something here but shorting might not work too well. Personally I would stay away from currencies at the moment, too much market risk and volatility. Just my opinion though.
PhilG
10-01-2009, 01:53 AM
I would be careful. I'm am not a currency trader but if the USD resumes it's slide lower with any gusto in the weeks ahead, that's likely to drive the AUD and NZD higher short term . . . hope I'm not missing something here but shorting might not work too well. Personally I would stay away from currencies at the moment, too much market risk and volatility. Just my opinion though.
I would totally agree.
2/3rd closed 10 pips shy of target at .5830 from sell at .5958 :D
closed remaining third at .5798 +160
Dr_Who
23-01-2009, 11:29 AM
What do you guys think about going long on NZDUSD for a few weeks at around the 52 cent mark?
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