Nzd.usd

[Balance]

I just went long NZDUSD today on China export numbers that is very positive.

Only playing with a very small amount, cos I am not doing much on the equities market.

Good call!

[peat]

yes you did well Dr. no more complaining about how you never do well at forex, that was impeccable timing
Are you going to cut and run yet ?

[Dr_Who]

yes you did well Dr. no more complaining about how you never do well at forex, that was impeccable timing
Are you going to cut and run yet ?

This market makes me very nervous and I assume it will continue to be volatile for while yet. So, a profit is a profit.

[peat]

I'm not trading this week (exams) but noticed this in the Herald today

"The market's given the kiwi a boost since the Reserve Bank raised rates on Thursday - you've got to say it's been supportive for the currency," said Tim Kelleher, vice president of institutional banking and markets at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Weak retail sales data is expected today, and if the figures fall short of expectations, "the kiwi's going to get bashed," he said.

Interesting to see what happens , these guys always have strong opinions but only sometimes get it right.

[roddy]

Hi Belgarion,
i am expecting upward movement in both the aud and NZD,hopefully this pattern might morph into something
as i am going to trade the D leg oh and BTW Pete good luck for your exams this week

cheers Roddy

[peat]

hey thanks Roddy! 3 to go. one each afternoon , man they are gruelling.

[Dr_Who]

Peat, go short on NZD/USD due to China further tightening and falling property prices?

[Pumice]

Portugal downgraded 2 notches aswell.

[dragonz]

Anyone else on to this?

[peat]

rising wedge?

[peat]

rising wedge?
wouldve been a good day to sell !


http://www.interest.co.nz/news/nz-dollar-moves-1-worlds-top-10-most-traded-currencies-volumes-down-31-2007

New Zealand’s foreign exchange market handled an average of US$9.5 billion per day in April 2010, down from US$13 billion in 2007, but up from US$7.5 billion in 2004 and US$4.2 billion in 2001, the Reserve Bank reported as part of the BIS survey, which is carried out every 3 years by 53 central banks.
The New Zealand part of the survey included data from the five major banks participating in the wholesale financial market.
“Since 2007, foreign exchange turnover in New Zealand has decreased by almost 31%," said the Reserve Bank's Head of Financial Markets Simon Tyler.

"Much of the decline is due to a fall in foreign exchange swap transaction volume, only a modest 3% is due to a fall in the New Zealand dollar versus the United States Dollar since April 2007. This contrasts sharply with international data which show a 20% increase in global foreign exchange turnover (including spot transactions, outright forwards and foreign exchange swaps) to US$4.0 trillion per day from U$3.3 trillion in April 2007," Tyler said.
“Overall, the falls in transaction volumes in New Zealand and the New Zealand dollar have been mainly driven by less overseas interest in the New Zealand dollar and a shift from short to longer-term funding by New Zealand’s banks.”

[Pumice]

We can now buy more USD than AUD!
I guess NZ unemployment dropping and US printing $600b is taking its toll.

The USD is dirt.

[Pumice]

A question I cant get my head around: Increased inflation pressures and a subsequent increase in the OCR (Or expectations of) appreciates the NZD in terms of the US. But I read that inflation expectations in the US (I'm assuming the FED would hike rates when this happens) will lead the USD to devalue significantly.

How can this be? Is it due to the expectations of hyper inflation creating instability?
I would have assumed that increased inflation expectations in the US would have lead to USD appreciation, not depreciation.
Or am I simply confusing the dichotomy between nominal money demand/supply and real values here.

Also, why would the US want to devalue its currency, when this simply increases the value of its real debt?

Anyway that my Q after too many lunch drinks.

[peat]

it might be the fact when lenders to the US get spooked about security of repayment they will demand higher interest rates but if that goes too far it will render US debts increasingly risky and so rates will soar even higher and potentially reach some tipping point.

high inflation is not positive for a currency.

from my notes this year :

Countries with relatively higher inflation or where inflation
levels are perceived to be rising ⇒ depreciating currency.

remember inflation is related to interest rates but they are not the same thing... interest rates go up in an attempt to compensate for inflation. but if the difference between them is getting greater then you're losing ground faster (by having fixed interest deposits)

[peat]

nzd hammered this arvo as S&P Revises New Zealand Foreign Currency Rating Outlook To Negative From Stable

S&P: Main Risk To NZ Rating Is Significant Weakening In Bank Credit Quality "The announcement was completely out of the blue, and the impact (on Tokyo's FX market) was large because market flows are very thin ahead of Tuesday's holiday in Japan," he says. S&P says decision due to risks from expected wider external imbalances, weakened fiscal flexibility as well as vulnerability to external shocks

[Pumice]

"Finance Minister English says S&P move shows N.Z. should rely less on foreign cash; means country must cut foreign reliance."

But how will we pay for our overpriced houses? Earn more than we spend? huh yeah right.
I read a report from the RBNZ that NZ had spent $1.54 for every dollar we had earnt for about the last few years.

That seems insane to me

Anyway, on the NZD/USD front, when would you say there is a downtrend in place? havent yet seen lower lows or lower highs etc

[arco]

.
I posted a potential short on the blog Friday based on the Ichimoku system- maximum move was about 137 pips.

This was the original chart posted 04.30 GMT Friday showing the potential track (Purple Trace) to potential target below

http://i56.tinypic.com/wcmf4i.gif

[peat]

Strange how various articles have attributed the fall of the NZD - which admittedly started minutes after - to the earthquake in Christchurch
But clearly this is false causality as the Euro and the Aussie the yen and the cAD have all weakened against the USD at exactly the same time.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

NZD went down with the quake - of that there is no question in my mind.

Agree with you Peat re AUD, Yen, and CAD - clearly this is false causality

My impression is that overseas traders closely link NZ and Ozzie even if it is illogical and there is no direct co-relationship of the event beyond the name Australian plate ...

If it's bad news for NZ then it's also bad news for AUD...
As Japan is a significant partner of NZ and OZ then ...
Assume CAD as commodity linked currency may have caught the cold from Oz ...

Refer also General Chit Chat for my trading diary notes of my 14 minute NZDUSD trade during the CHCH earthquake...

I was also short EURJPY on 10 March the day before the Japan earthquake - picked up 14.6 pips in 30 minutes and closed the trade in profit...

Just as well I was not still in it the next day ...

[Zorrro]

WOW Not one Fx Posting here For now Since 18th Feb 2011 - so some six odd weeks.

Please any who want Give me a shout on Skype : zarif786 (UK) will gladly add you in my Skype room And also I have a noce Google room taht if you want you can join and we can have rapport and discussions and trade and ideas views sharig etc.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/zaktraders

Looking forward to seeing all those atht are interested in Trading Fx, Oil ( Us and Brent) Gold Silver ES FTSE DAX - to mention an few

rgds
Zorrro ( aka zarif)

[peat]

http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/53007/opinion-barclays-peter-redward-makes-case-rbnz-intervene-drag-nz-dollar-down-arguing-i


an argument for the RBNZ to intervene

[iceman]

Meanwhile Bollard says in a speech in Ashburton last night that the high NZ$ is great, creating "higher wealth and cheaper imports" OMG !!!!


http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/53007/opinion-barclays-peter-redward-makes-case-rbnz-intervene-drag-nz-dollar-down-arguing-i

an argument for the RBNZ to intervene

[Pumice]

Anyone getting thier assets out of NZ?
NZD at record levels against USD, GBP, EUR........

What will happen when the OCR starts to go up.

[Pumice]

Bernanke: "The FED believes that a strong and stable dollar is both in the American interests and in the interest of the global economy."

Haha yeah right...... funny way of showing it Mr Bernanke.

[Pumice]

Big, big drop for the kiwi today ... Are USD really that safe by comparision?

Also falling against the EUR, I wouldnt say they are a safe option either.
To be fair even at 81c thats still pretty high on a historical basis.

[Pumice]

86c and climbing.....
Anyone want to guess on where this will end?

[peat]

86c and climbing.....
Anyone want to guess on where this will end?

in tears?

;+)

[Steve]

I guess someone had to mention parity with the USD! Will it be kiss-of-death like the NZDAUD every time it spikes upwards causing the 'parity' cry to go out, only for the NZD to tank?

NZ dollar surging to parity with US (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10740294)
Currency experts are not ruling out the possibility of a seemingly unstoppable New Zealand dollar reaching parity - or equal value - with the US currency.

[brettdale]

I guess if you are planning an overseas trip, now will be the time to buy your usa dollar.

[PhilG]

I guess if you are planning an overseas trip, now will be the time to buy your usa dollar.

So you think the NZD has peaked? I think will go to parity..

[brettdale]

I think its reached a high, although experts are saying 90 cents this year.

[brettdale]

Westpac offers foreign currency acounts, has anyone use these, how easy is it to access your money, and they give you an atm card, how could you withdraw usa cash out from a machine in newzealand?

[Pumice]

With the US being downgraded (with FX markets closed) how will this impact the NZD/USD cross when markets open?
will it be more risk aversion or will people bail on the USD?

[peat]

in off market trading the kiwi hasnt moved. but the euro has moved up about 20 pips.

[dumbass]

Hey peat , how you doing , still trading forex ?
Forex thread has died a death without our leader , shame really.

[dumbass]

peat This one made me laugh , posted after thursdays meltdown in reference to perma bear prechter.

BREAKING NEWS

FOX NEWS REPORTING PRECHTER HAS BEEN RUSHED TO HOSPITAL FOR PRIAPISM.

Alas looks like the start of a bear market , so trading from the short side .

[peat]

hey hey DA
some private positions but most of my predicting the future is done at the office these days

[brettdale]

With the dow crashing, what should the dollar do today?

[dumbass]

hi Peat , there is a very balanced BAT developing on the kiwi for a short from higher up ,

Holy harmonic patterns ,get on the phone to Commissioner Gordon !

will post a chart later

[dumbass]

the nzd has posted a steep decline from 88 to 80 but this is only the first decline (wave A) of a 3 wave correction.
the price has grinded higher in a complex correction from 80 to just shy of 86 (wave B) and now it looks like its about to roll over in a wave C
target is around 77.80 , break of lower trendline should confirm a sharp fall.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-1.jpg

[dumbass]

hi thanks for the pm , i can certainly bore your socks off with some technical info on the trade , i will post a reply when i have time later.

[dumbass]

corrections appear in 3 main waves , the first main wave is constructed of 5 waves therefore it must be a

zig zag correction ( 5 - 3 - 5 ) that is about to unfold.

the tricky bit is working out the wave structure of the second main wave as its a corrective wave working against the main trend it overlaps and runs a complex pattern

the third wave is unfolding now, which will subdivide into 5 waves and have fib relationships to the first wave.

heres my internal count of the second wave which i followed for a month with a few false starts but got there in the end

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDBWAVE.jpg

i shorted the major third wave down and closed out this morning because i counted 5 waves down which is the completion of the first sub wave.

i had four positions short (100 k a position ) for a total of about 900 pips.


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-2.jpg

im now waiting to allow a correction to run to enter short again for the most lucrative third wave down , i can pm you when i go short again.


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/wave1nzd.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi,
I have some USD in DB multicurrency A/c at .81285 placed there on the way up for NZDUSD so I am interested in the earlier target around .77800

[dumbass]

So far so good , if this fall is the real deal it will be sharp decline to lower levels .
If it stalls around the 79 to 80 mark it may indicate a recovery higher before dropping lower.
My ultimate target is 72 area.

[dumbass]

wave patterns following the script nicely, now looking to increase shorts to maximum exposure to ride the third wave

lower with first target around 77 area.

4 shorts from friday for 400+ pips and will look to add four more shorts next week.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-3.jpg


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDBWAVE-1.jpg

[dumbass]

closed off all shorts and will have a small long to pass the time before going heavy short after this retracement.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-4.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi,
I assume you are in the money on your shorts.

I missed the exit at .81173 last night at 8.00pm ish.

My expectation was the US markets would go down today and risk aversion get me into the money.

I did not expect the China purchase of Italian assets story.

So we are on the opposite sides, I think as I am looking for a weaker NZD.

[roddy]

Hey NICE trading DA i like your disciplined approach as per usual, and it paid off in the end

[dumbass]

roddy where have you been, trying to keep the old forum going but not much interest.
sounds like peats got a proper job and arcos not posting much.
what you been trading?

[roddy]

HI DA good to hear from you,i periodically have a look see on this forum but not much happening as you say apart from
your posts
at present i am short the EUR/USD FROM 1.3840 level
last year 2010 didnt trade that much fx but main focus was on small cap start up miners and some producers,
had a great run up until December. At present just have a handful of small positions. gold has had a huge run but there
is a disconnect between the commodity and stocks,in saying that the likes of OGC and other producers will be making large
gains due to the increase in gold price. I have learnt one thing and that is if the stock market gets sold down everything gets sold down! On my trading platform i can now trade oil and Gold so that gives me some more options
i have just finished reading Darvis book How i made $2000,000 in the stock market : he had a simple but effective system
how have your returns been this year and are you still trading full time?
cheers
roddy

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Roddy,
I like the Darvas story too.
I read about the book in Dec 2007 and how to apply the method.
Purchased ASX, WOR and WOW in Dec 2007 on the ASX.
If you take a look at the charts you will see all tanked in January 2008.
Darvas was not worried buying at all time high levels if stocks were going higher.
My conclusion is it works best in bull markets that are trending steadily.
I got out of WOW OK but took losses on ASX and WOR. (Big ones for me)
Is there any free software charts available to identify Darvas box opportunities.
I am aware that Protrader had this feature on a pay to use basis.
Thanks & rgds

[roddy]

Hi Toulouse-Luzern i think your summation is good,Darvis which is similar to the Donchian channel breakout systems 20 day high etc i found all work well in trending markets but not so good in range bound or falling markets when there is not the ability to go short as you point out!
i have meta stock 11 EOD and it has Davis high and low it also has Donchian channels which the turtle traders used for their trading system,sorry i dont know of any free charts supporting Darvis
one reason i like fx is before i place a trade i put my stop on whereas the stocks i buy i go a through a broker who doesn't
have a stop facility consequently i do find it a little harder psychologically to pull the trigger when the trade goes against me
whats your preferred instrument to trade?
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

metastock 11 very flash roddy.

i have contemplated for a while running a black box through meta trader fully automated to a broker and i would have input

in setting trade parameters dependant on market conditions.

i saw one running quite recently and in volatile markets on high sensitivity settings it was impressive.

[roddy]

Hi DA
yes i have heard of a guy who has a completely automated system" robot" who is quite successful, and only has high net worth clients which counts me out. i think he
trials it for a few months before he lets it trade.
at forexpeacearmy they have a forum rating automated systems,but imagine those with a highly effective system would be keeping it to themselves

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Roddy,
I was using CFDs for FX from CMC markets and for the Aussie200. (ASX200)
I had some issues using the CMC platform which may be only related to me, however I decided to opt out as I found it tricky to use over several months.
I use Direct broking for NZX and ASX equities, no issues at all, good systems, however would prefer lower fees.
I now have Direct Broking multi currency account for NZDAUD and NZDUSD.
I am taking a holiday from FX trading just now but intend to open another CFD account and learn the platform thoroughly before trading actively.
We also have Call accounts and TDs, Bonds and significant Man Investments in OMIP; and also Fisher Funds Australian Growth and NZ Growth.
Was using ETFs on the ASX but found many were illiquid eg IHK, ISG, however STW the ASX200 is OK.
Thks & rgds

[dumbass]

closed off all shorts and will have a small long to pass the time before going heavy short after this retracement.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-4.jpg




kiwi dollar on the rise , will hold long position with a target of 84 and then look for short entry.

[peat]

sounds like peats got a proper job

makin a difference for Chch.

[roddy]

HI DA
is the count still around the .77 level for the kiwi,i have a small position on will be encouraged if the previous support.7960 is taken out
cheers
roddy

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Roddy,
got close at a low of .79945 2 or 3 hours ago ...

[dumbass]

hi roddy , difficult to set a target at the moment , i would expect short term around 79 but further out possibly a lot

lower. i am expecting the equity markets to melt down and therefore would have thought there would be simultaneous

risk off , kiwi down , markets down.( however SP 500 hasnt broken down yet )

looking at the SP 500 i expect the market to rally from here into mid 1200 before a large move lower , which will take the

kiwi lower as well.

i am personally riding my shorts as the tone is still very bearish.

[dumbass]

the nzd has posted a steep decline from 88 to 80 but this is only the first decline (wave A) of a 3 wave correction.
the price has grinded higher in a complex correction from 80 to just shy of 86 (wave B) and now it looks like its about to roll over in a wave C
target is around 77.80 , break of lower trendline should confirm a sharp fall.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-1.jpg

WOW, i cannot believe this has happened in a couple of weeks ,i thought this would be a multi MONTH target,



all shorts closed for a mega pipper. i will take stock of action over the weekend and see where we are off to from here.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
I also cashed out of NZDUSD about 11.00am this morning.
Thanks for your posts and charts - appreciated.

[dumbass]

my pleasure , happy to have a look at any currency you like.

couldn't resist a long form 78 stop 7740 .

[roddy]

Hi DA
great trading and yes agree thanks for posting,i have been out all day so i am still in the trade,but will keep an eye on it now

cheers
roddy

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA, Roddy,
I shorted NZDUSD on CMC FX at .7835 when I was late reading your earlier post for a long at .78.
Pulled a few pips and out now.
thks & rgds

[dumbass]

hi guys , i feel when a big target is hit it pays to reflect a little before deciding on the next major trend.

just scalping around at the moment stopped out + 50, i do feel 77.60 is an important level and wouldn,t expect it to

break easily.

[dumbass]

The nzd doing what it does best!

large broad trends and volatile swings within the main trend.

kiwi got its ass kicked as the world sold risk and amid the backdrop of a trend change for the USD.

short term price action may hint at a small rally.

indicators diverging and with a completed count suggest a move back to 79 region.

can either use this as an opportunity to set up a short or if you have the fortitude a long from here.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1.jpg


main trend still down with ultimate target 71.20 region

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA.
Your charts give me the idea.
I tried to go long befor lunch with the NZDUSD at .7728 but as it had already moved up I cancelled and shorted EURUSD instead a few times for a few pips.
Later in the day picked up a few pips of NZDUSD long after some pull backs.
Overall up about 40 pips for the day.

Thaks & rgds

[dumbass]

hi toulouse , looks like nzd is ready to run higher , impulsive pattern printing on 1 minute charts

2 long positions on +60 & + 30 .

still looking quite a bt higher

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm1.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I see what you mean and on 5m chart and 15m also ...

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,

Excellent advice - didn't read your post till a couple of hours later I tried an entry at .7751 but it had moved up didnt chase it, it went on the 7800 plus as you suggested while I was pre-occupied with a big EURUSD price move up impact on my short. I think that'll do me for today.

Congratulations it looks like you are well in the money with your NZDUSD trade and the analysis behind it.

Thks & rgds

[dumbass]

target hit on long for a total 450+ pips,
there is now a completed corrective pattern , i am now short from 79.25.
will watch how the short unfolds , this maybe a small retracement and could possibly head into the 80s but will be short lived .
big shorts coming up, for target to 72

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks again DA,
Congratulations on the 450+
read your latest post at 10.45am and pulled a few pips ...
looking to go short again ...

[dumbass]

hi toulouse,im expecting this may only be a temporary move back around 78 then may run into the 80s.
that should set up a short and hold to much lower levels.(72)
you can see from the wave personality its a slow drift which hints at a corrective trend( 3 waves lower ) rather than a sharp move to the downside.

im looking at sp500 and gold at the moment.
gold has been a fantastic trade , i shorted up at the 1800 level with a target of 1575 which was hit and then went long with a target of 1790.
its pausing now and may drift lower before moving up. this hints at more usd weakness.

gold if it gets to 1790, should come down in a hurry to 1480 level.

[dumbass]

closed short 85+ pips back long to see if it runs to 80 .

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
Got another NZDUSD short this morning after your post and was in again short and out OK later this afternoon, watching NZDUSD just now.
Have been working with tight stops.
I was going to have a look at S&P500 last night but went to bed instead.
I have not traded gold so far but will have a look at the charts later on.
Good result for you on the short and good luck with your current long...

My CFD provider has 3 pip spreads most of the time with NZDUSD but today it varied with 4, 5 pips from time to time and was at 6 pips at 10.20am.
thks & rgds

[roddy]

hi DA,
great ANALYSIS WHERE do i sign up for the hedge fund,and great trade on gold

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

thanks roddy , actually i run a hedge fund called Quantum Hedge Fund you may have heard of it.
cheers george s

[Toulouse - Luzern]

george s I have certainly heard of - great analysis and results - and I certainly know about Quantum Hedge Fund

[dumbass]

just need to be carefull guys , the main trade is setting up for a short.

i like scalping around to maintain my focus but we mustn't lose the big picture.


i still fancy a run higher , just put on another long 78.50 long very tight stop 78 .40

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA/George,
I am long at the moment, my stop is lower than yours, so I will tighten it as you suggested.
I am also interested in the setting up for the short so I will keep a closer eye out for your posts
thks & rgds

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Roddy, and DA,
Good advice again DA,
Just hit my target T1 and I am out again.

[dumbass]

morning guys , bias has now changed to short , correction over at 79 top.

now the tricky thing is to find a short entry with a good risk reward , would expect to see 77 today which may

complete wave 1 down and allow a retracement wave 2 for a short entry .

gl

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
just read your post, I have a short in this morning but has not triggered yet...

[Toulouse - Luzern]

OK I have been in now for a while and looking good to go to T1 ...

[dumbass]

maybe, just maybe a rally of the lower channel up to 78 would make a nice short from there.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm5.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

I see the low channel clearly in your chart - spooky how it is up 10 pips from the low 7732 ish to 7742 in a few minutes...

[dumbass]

hi toulouse , 78- 78.10 has some signiifcant fib numbers.

could be a good place for a short , risk would sit at mid 78s.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm5-1.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
Firstly thanks for your time posting these charts.
Much appreciated.
Your analysis is excellent.
Today I had three trades, a short first and later two longs.
All were profitable and I am out now.
Yes I certainly will be watching around .78.
All the best.
thks & rgds

[biology12]

hey guys, sorry to jump in, im graham

DA, are you picking a short may happen somewhere around 78-78.5?

im quite a novice in regards to forex, just wondering what indicator you used to pick that up?

cheers,

i generally trade 30m use bbands rsi price osc and of course macd. just keen to see where your coming from, you using fibs?(i havent had much luck with it,truth dont know how to plot it properly),

o also, just a gen question the spot gold price, has this sunk big time from its high only a few days ago due to people perceivng that germany will bail out?and greece will get its 6bil?, imo gold goes up in bad news down in good news?

[dumbass]

hi graham, i use a technique called elliot wave , each wave on any time frame fits into repeating patterns.

fib analysis is a primary part of the wave relationships.

the main trend is down , so looking to enter short , there is a confluence of fibs at the 78 level.

you can see the price has hit a brick wall at 78 which is what i would expect to see but price has not broken down yet.

can you see the up trendline has broken and been tested from the under side another good sign.

there is divergence on lower time frame rsi at the high another good sign.

there is other pattern stuff too making 78 look like a good place to go short .

always good to know where you will be wrong and for me that is 78.40

so risk reward is good as if correct should be going to mid 76.

gl

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Graham,
and thanks DA for your timely post

I am in short and it certainly went higher and faster than I expected above 78...

Graham I am watching NZDUSD with 5, 10 and 60 minute charts with 10 and 20 moving averages (MA), SAR, (Stop and return), RSI and MACD also Bollinger bands.

I do not use EW and Fibs yet although I know what they are and DA is great with them.

Thks & rgds

[roddy]

Gidday Graham
there is an excellent thread in the Forex section under Gartley and Butterflies
there are some great chart examples in there and the butterfly gartley are fib patterns
imo not as technical as elliot wave but a good place to start if you wanted to have a look
at fib levels etc
i have another job as well as trading.Im always on the lookout for butterfly patterns if they not around my focus is Donchian channels,cci and strong support resistance levels

[dumbass]

evening guys , should not have breached 78 which raises the possibilty of an ending diagonal.

this means the trend is still short but you have waves that overlap.

having a peep in the text books, 3 3 3 3 3 ending diagonal.

i dont like this one im getting out for - 30 pips .

good luck guys

[dumbass]

heres what could be going down.

either were still on track as stop has not been breached or as this is a fifth wave an ending diagonal unfolding.

doesnt change short target but it screws up the wave count as rules are different.

im out for the week

gl guys

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/endingd.jpg

[roddy]

Awesome DA its been a very profitable period for you or should i say George s ,have fun in your corporate box over the weekend.
cheers
roddy

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi all,
Yes thanks DA for the latest post, I remain short on this trade.
Was encouraged when it went to 7803 at 10.40pm.

[dumbass]

well done toulouse , i shall log this trade as a moral victory even though it was not a financial victory.

have a great weekend.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA and thanks for your great chart at 8.36AM yesterday.

As you say a moral victory for your approach.

Thanks also for your kind words, however I also took a 30 pip hit last night.

The entry 78 came while I was at dinner, so my market entry was lower than yours.
My SL was also higher.
To focus on a report for a mtg today and minimise the risk of hitting SL I moved my T1 to a 30 pip loss.
I intended to look at the screen every 10 mins or so and revise T1 and SL lower if the MA, and SAR etc continued to support this.
T1 was hit about 15 mins after my previous look...

[biology12]

hey guys cheers 4 all the helpful comments i will def have a sift back through previous threads.

DA, ha you were right she shore did bounce down would of been a great short to get onto to, too bad i hit the sack early due to morning classes and missed it would of made a tiny little profit.

not shore if this is right but my charts nd ta tell me it will be closing soon and a long will be happening due to the MACD closing?this is on 30m view also the price oscill has hit its peak and coming back to zero?

cheers

[Toulouse - Luzern]

my view is down further ...

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hit T1 on my short and out.
In the 5 min chart the range was 41 pips

[dumbass]

weekly review suggests further downside for nzd and most likely the declines will gain in pace

73.80 should provide stiff resistance , which should be a good weekly target.

the below chart was prepared after the Dan Carter news.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1-1.jpg

[RazorX]

Hi DA

You think the Dan Carter news is going to have that big an impact? :)

That aside I do agree that there is likely to be a sizable downtrend next week... or this week actually.

Good luck!

BTW I notice that you post quite a bit on the NZDUSD thread - do you do any such analysis for EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD pairs?

Cheers
RazorX

[dumbass]

Hi razor, i like to trade oil , natural gas , sp 500 , dollar index and individual forex crosses.

I tend to look at the macro picture and trade the most volatile pairs.

If you want to live dangerously trade gbp jpy.

To be honest there is little interest in trading on this forum so i guess nzd being the local currency seems to get a bit of attention.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks for the chart DA.
I notice my CFD provider is managing this mornings volatility with an up to 11 pip spread...

[dumbass]

need a good counter trend rally to position for a short .

maybe a little optimistic but could run up 77 - 78 to provide a excellent short entry.

[dumbass]

tricky to get a meaty short on with acceptable risk, even though the nzd is moving as anticipated.

should be an interesting week , SP500 breaking down with one particular count suggesting a large capitulation type sell off may be close which could be the end of the bear market.

this also would be the end of the nzd correction at 73.80 or even 72.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA thanks for your post.

If you draw a Fibonacci retracement from the higher high on the 30 minute chart at 8.40 with the second value as the lower low at 10.20 the result is a 38.2 at .7538 which value was respected almost to the pip since.

Are you still looking for an entry at .77 or .78

[dumbass]

hi toulouse,

no wishfull thinking 77.78 was an old fib line , sort of headed up that way but didnt make it.

id take 76 today .

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA,
I will set some NZDUSD alerts this afternoon.
What is your preferred trading option today; FX pair, index, commodity ...
thks and rgds

PS I see the NZDUSD low at 10.20 of .7608 has been respected since as well...

[dumbass]

ive been working on a short on gbp jpy which is nearly there .

possible short capitulation on sp500 and therefore more dollar strength would be the ones to watch

i will post a chart later when i have more time.

gl

[dumbass]

possible short entry of upper channel border

would expect price to reverse around 76 - 76.20 , 60 pip stop

target 74.70, 74.20, 73.80.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm10.jpg

[dumbass]

looks like its breaking down now could move stop to 76.30

im short from 75.80

[dumbass]

another short entry on retracement to 75.50

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA,
no current position, watching again for entry point,

[dumbass]

morning toulouse,

had a ok night with target 1 hit at 74.80 for + 100

second trade i closed out this morning for + 30.

i have just scalped a long for + 40 which im riding to see if it breaks upper channel line , if it stalls there could be a good place to set up a short.

gl

[dumbass]

shorted the reversal on the upper channel line for +70 and closed .

i think it may run long from here 75 .50 tight stop and see how we go .

[biology12]

hey da, just fin with classes?

u picking a buy, what u think will b its limit?

cheers in advance

[dumbass]

not sure at the moment , but you cant enter long now as the entry had to be around 75.50 to have a good risk profile. + 50 pips
lots more trades to come , really just filling time for another short.

[biology12]

ok sweet, non of my indicators for 30min are showing for a buy as well plus way to close to the rsi line for me,

u wouldnt know what caused the jump at 830pm last night would you that massive green bar ther?

any idea when it will turn?

[dumbass]

it should not exceed 76.50 as there is heavy fib activity there.

watch maybe for a double top 76.30

my feeling its quite close to breaking to the downside.


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm5-4.jpg

[dumbass]

there it goes shorts on

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA
Thanks again for your charts and posts, excellent analysis.
I miscalculated the GMT timeline on your post of about 7.31AM and entered short at 8.42AM NZT.
It has been an interesting day.
I calculated the Fibs close to your value for the SL and I am still in the trade.
Certainly pleased at your recent posts about more downside...
Will be watching

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi Bio,
The spike was at 8.30am and I went short part way through the big green bars.
I believe the cause was the FT article on a BadBank for support of EURO banks.
This was repeated on cnbc etc and the dow rallied strongly in the last hour, up 153 points for the day after being down 200 odd = 350 points.
A remarkable day.

[dumbass]

Hi DA
Thanks again for your charts and posts, excellent analysis.
I miscalculated the GMT timeline on your post of about 7.31AM and entered short at 8.42AM NZT.
It has been an interesting day.
I calculated the Fibs close to your value for the SL and I am still in the trade.
Certainly pleased at your recent posts about more downside...
Will be watching

hi toulouse , that was yesterday evening so pm not am.

it should be new lows from here but care needs to be taken as this is near the completion of the bearish pattern.

often this leads to volatile swings so you need to watch stops.

most sensible place for stop is above 76.50

targets still 74.60
i now have one eye looking for longer term long entry.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA,
Yes I was well after the event ...
my stop is above 76.50,
let's know about your switch to long...
you have done pretty well on this over the last few days...
bonne chance
rgds

[biology12]

da, cheers for the chart mate, always good getting a visual. which platform do u use, mind i ask?

[biology12]

TL, thanks for the comments always good hearing from more experienced people like you and da,

thanks for your help and also for future questions that i might ask haha,everyone has to start somewhere.

bio

[dumbass]

morning guys , stopped out on shorts -60 pips , looks like there may have been a significant short term bottom at 74.60.

i would be changing bias and trading from the long side , but beware the kiwi is a fickle beast and can swing quickly.

im going to let the dust settle and review over the weekend.

gl

[dumbass]

i have spent a bit of time looking at the last two days action.

im still slightly sceptical that this has been an impulse move higher as action looks more corrective in nature.

there is some heavy fib action around 77.20 , the target that i was certain would get hit did not ( 73.80 )

seems market sentiment has turned bullish so i am going for 1 final short from 77.20 open target 60 pip stop.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1-2.jpg

[dumbass]

overnight action trailing 60 pip stop , stopped out for + 30 pips

77.20 looks like strong resistance as anticipated .

this is the line in the sand for future trades be it a good place to set stops for shorts or if broken should become strong support.

i have another short on from 77.20 just scouting direction.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi thanks DA,
I was stopped out also last night NZDUSD but a risk offset on long AUDUSD was positive.

[roddy]

Hi DA
i am looking to get short at .7720 or the .7780 which is the 61.8 retrace of the last down move!
i agree that kiwi still in downtrend,well is on the daily no higher highs or higher lows yet only the opposite.
FWIW i would want to see .7960 taken out before i change my bias
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

Hi roddy , getting close to a short , maybe there already , i personally favour one more wave higher from here

Maybe into mid 78s.

Will review action over next couple of days.

Gl

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,

Thks another good call,
are we there yet ... .7856 in last hour
Thks & rgds

[dumbass]

hi , worth a good look here for a short.

some fib action ahead at 79 area should serve as a protective stop

completed pattern and channel line hit.

as this was an extended fifth wave should come down pretty swiftly.

care needs to be taken though as that was quite a powerfull counter trend rally, so a little more confirmation would be good.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1-3.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

thanks DA
rgds

[dumbass]

im going place sell orders at 78.70 and 78.90 with a stop 79.40.

may just get one more spike up which will take us close to big resistance at 79 level.

if i miss this entry will catch a retracement on the way down.

just closed out a longs for 110+, 70+.

gl

[dumbass]

the short orders still stand as previous post ,action still suggests a run at 79 area.

i have just closed a short position for 80+ and will now go long from 77.45 and target 78.70.

however this does not change short expectations.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA,
I am long AUDUSD today partly because of the tighter and more consistent lower spreads.
I prefer tight stops and my provider has taken NZDUSD out to 12 pips or more over last few days.
Will have a look at NZDUSD again after dinner.

[Pumice]

There .7950
Might look for a short when this turns

[dumbass]

well 79 did not prove to be a resistance at all. long trade 120+ , shorts 120 -

still looks to me like a short squeeze which should have nearly run its course.

bias still short but you dont want to get in the way of rallies like this.

[Pumice]

I dont think there is much conviction to this rally. AUDUSD fading after 90-pip jump following the favourable unemployment data; currently 20-pips from pre-release and NZDUSD 30-pips lower from pre-release.

I'm short but not in the $ yet. Stop just above .80

[dumbass]

looks like we may be heading south.

good old fashioned head and shoulders

2 x shorts from 79.60, 79.55 stops to 79.70

watch for a retest of neckline

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm10-2.jpg

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
Thanks
Congratulations, another good call ...
where too now ...
rgds

[dumbass]

failure of kiwi to push higher or even retest previous 79.90 high suggests scalping from short side.

79 area, which was suppose to be the big resistance for my previous short now rather ironically seems to be strong support.

looking for a short term short from higher up target 79 area or lower.

gl closed shorts for 100+ last night

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Thanks DA,
will be watching it ...

[Pumice]

Another downgrade, this time Spain.
Helping those NZD shorts along.

DA do you always time things this well?

[dumbass]

risk on or off is a funny thing and often seems unrelated to news events.

we are in a little optimistic bubble at the moment which has created this spike in the kiwi,i am looking at eur and sp 500

for direction at the moment.

sp 500 has strong resistance at 1220 so we may see another push to challenge this area.

eur usd waiting for a pattern to complete around 1.4150

this may mean a spike higher in kiwi which i will try and short at the top.

so maybe worth keeping an eye on these levels in eur and sp 500

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Hi DA,
Thanks,
Like your thoughts on the EURUSD as I am long at the moment ...
I will probably have a look at the S&P tonight...
When you posted about it and also your interest in gold a week or so back I tested out my CFD charts etc and trading platform for both and it works OK
thks & rgds

[dumbass]

sp 500 has hit resistance around 1225 pivot , this maybe a warning that market may correct lower from here and most likely mean a us dollar rally.
i have closed longs on nzd for +80 + 100
eur usd longs +120 and sp500 +20 points.
i would expect a nudge higher from here but looking to set up short.

[HIDDENGEM]

I am not an expert in currency. When I analyse globalfactors, commodity trend to pick stocks I can see some trend for some currencies.I have never done any online currency trading.

I expect both NZD and AUD go higher in the short run whilehaving volatility

Inthe medium term probably next year or end of this year USD can go higheragainst baskets of currencies

Anybody is investing in currency for the long run? If it isso how do you take positions?

Do you buy currency options or any other instruments?

Thanks and regards

[biology12]

DA,

hey mate, how come you picking a short?you thinking the 80c level will not hold??

[dumbass]

longer term direction is short as im picking the rally from 73.80 is a correction and the trend is still down.

shorter term action is long, targeting upper channel line 81.20 or even 82 +

[biology12]

think the trend will be switching, below 80c now, that news from germaning is hitting everything.
thoughts on targets?

[dumbass]

looks very much like a trend change underway. i scalped a few on the long 30+ but kind of felt it was struggling a bit.

i got some shorts on the nzd 130+,100+ aud 130+ eur 100+.

most likely the bulls will not roll over without a fight. if i use the kiwi as an example i would set a target at 78.90 for closing shorts and go long and see how much of a bounce we get.

if you dont fancy a long then use the rally to set up shorts

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzdm5-5.jpg

[biology12]

cheers for that will be following today, great pick ups on shorts from u, "big collect for the boys",

[biology12]

hey da,

from your last post: are you thinking it will drop down to 78.90 then bounce from ther, just had a look had it seems to be going up now could the bounce not have hit at like 79.25,

note still a novice to curr trading just unshore of the way you stated it b4

cheers in advance,

[biology12]

note, just looking in 30min window macd crossed low rsi and signals from b bands, couldnt be a long coming up as we speak?

[dumbass]

im picking it will fall one last down wave, maybe around 79.40 and go to 78.90 then will try a long.

watch out as there will be possibly a reaction at 1.30 pm as there is a news release from RBA

the long will be high risk trade so i wouldnt recommend it unless your quite experienced.

safer to wait for a short entry from higher up.

[biology12]

you were right about the downwave i got hit a lil but just lost a couple of bucks as had a real small postion as always,

will wait till after 1.30, thanks for the help,

bio

[dumbass]

there you go bio the kiwi following the script, hopefully that helped to make a few pips,

now i think price will bounce from here at 78.80 ish,but not for the faint hearted.

[Pumice]

Goldman Sachs had a shocker of a result.
Risk aversion looks to be back.

Would short the Kiwi but am going for the EUR @ 1.3673 only aiming for 1.3600
see what happens when I wake up....

[dumbass]

120+ 100+ on kiwi longs , 160+ aud long ,100+ eur .

kiwi hit and reversed on 80 , have taken another 50+ off the short from 80

its a very volatile market will look for more short entries after dust settles.

[Pumice]

Volatile is an understatement.
Germany and France agree to boost the rescue fund and not long after that, Moody's downgrades Spain's government bond ratings to A1 with a negative outlook.
Think I’ll sit on the sideline for a bit.

DA, can I ask what trading platform you use?

[dumbass]

Hi pumice I use saxobank there ok spreads are acceptable and no transaction fees.they have a good mobile platform for iPad iPhone so i can manage trades anywhere

[Pumice]

Cheers DA
I use Oanda, they seem ok, but thier mobile platform (on android) is a bit buggy.

See any trade setups?

[dumbass]

hi pumice, big event risk this weekend so i think we are unlikely to see a range breakout until the meeting is

done. i favour scalping the kiwi from the long side playing the range 78.80 - 80.20, but just intra day trades.

[dumbass]

if anyone has followed this trade I would take profit at 79.90
I have 100 +pips with two trades but it's not the market to be too greedy

[dumbass]

Target hit on spike up 200+ , probably hold off from here and see what happens.

[biology12]

hey DA,

whats the plans for the market today?thoughts?

[dumbass]

hi biology , absolutely stuck in a range from 79 to 80 . play the range long or short untill the range breaks.

i wouldnt be too greedy just hunt for 60 - 70 pips until the range breaks no clear direction at the moment.

[Pumice]

Range break finally.
More rubish in Europe

[dumbass]

im going to live dangerously, long 77.81 stop 77.65

[Pumice]

Thats crazy talk.
Has your SL hit yet?

I was going to short on the break but wasnt watching the market close enough so missed it. Was looking like a great setup too, it had a few attempts at .80 but just couldnt do it.

[dumbass]

It was crazy , but an opportunity with a very low risk was too good to pass. -20
Im still expecting a bounce in the dow tonight which i thought would materialise in risk on ,
Still bearish on the kiwi though.

[Pumice]

Well it did bounce back a bit DA, only to fall away again.

Can I ask how you manage to be so disciplined with your trades. I have been trading for a few years now, but this is (like many) my one remaining weakness.
Fortunately it hasn’t cost me a margin call as I risk very little. Any tips?

[dumbass]

great question, i think trading tends to expose any flaws in your character, it will find it and play you like a fiddle. My problem for many years was fighting my impulsive nature i tended to enter trades too early , only to watch my stops being hit and then heading in the anticipated direction. i would then jump in too late and get stopped out again.
elliot wave theory helped me determine risk, ideally you will enter very close to your calculated top and therefore have a very tight stop. most of my trades will risk only 30 - 50 pips which allows you the luxury of large positions.
the next best way to enter is on a retracement of the first wave down , this retracement is typically 50 - 61.8 % of the first wave and can be up to 100 % retracement ( double top ) so plenty of time to enter if you miss the top.
i think another important issue is not to listen to all the talking heads, this just brings doubt in to your trading, be true to yourself. I ve never really struggled with being wrong as long as it was my trade.
i think another key point is to wait for the right trade , there are always good set ups in the market and there is no need to enter a trade where risk is not correct or even that you cant work out a good exit,never mind a good entry.

im sure others will add to this list.

[dumbass]

i will be looking to get short again on nzd usd / aud usd next week.

i play 2 positions on the pair i feel will be weaker on there respective cross , i think the aud will be weaker than the kiwi and therefore will go

short two aud usd positions against one short nzd usd.

i am expecting that a short trade will occur at close on the dow on monday ( U.S. mon trading day ), so will wait for this signal before looking at going short. ( risk is still the dominant trend most likely initiated by equity weakness )

kiwi levels may be 79 fib action and descending trendline ( expected ) or if we are very lucky a run to just under 80 ( would be a gift )

watch the italian bond rates, 7 % seems to be tipping point , market was closed friday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GBTPGR10:IND


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/NZDH1-5.jpg

[dumbass]

short trade nzd 140+, aud 130 +, 120+

did not get expected sell signal on the dow , therefore shorts closed and am now long nzdusd 77 .70 , audusd and dow 12 050 for a counter trend rally.

[roddy]

Hi DA
I am short gbp nzd and euro but not as good entries as you.
the GBP does look like its sideways but my trigger was bearish engulfing,and daily CCI was -100 then retraced and bounced off the 0 line back
down into negative teritory,so i am anticipating a break down out of the range its in on the daily

[biology12]

hey da,
plans for today?i liked your post on the 13th cheers mate

[dumbass]

today looking at focussing more on aud usd short than kiwi.
unusual to see the aud holding up well and the kiwi getting a hiding , this probably indicates aud nzd cross buying which is holding the aud up and pressuring the kiwi.
will have a look at short aud usd levels to enter and post later , risk reward looks good .
the only slight spanner in the works is a short term bullish pattern on the dow which may mean there is a little risk coming back into the market.

[dumbass]

1.02 should prove difficult to break , i would get as close as you can to 1.02 and short with a 40 pip stop.

[RazorX]

Just closed AUDUSD short for 100 pips, entered off the double top hitting the 50 Fib level yesterday afternoon - looked a bit shakey as the priced retraced up to 1.0200, but then made a nice move down to my TP. Currently looking for a clean entry into the NZDUSD - maybe wait for a retrace? (The last one only went to 23.6 and I only take bounces off the 38.2 up to the 78.6)

[dumbass]

as stated focus was on the aud usd short yesterday , closed out yesterday afternoon for 120+ 105+ 80+, no kiwi short.

today trade the range 102.20 - 100.5 , if 100.5 breaks we are going much lower , if 102.20 negates short bias.

[dumbass]

long from 1.0030 & 10050 stops at 1.001
1.005 area support looks like its held , still very cautious about being too long but shouild get a reasonable bounce

[dumbass]

closed out long trades + 70 +90 , this looks like an impulsive move higher so if correction remains a 3 wave affair will get long again

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/audm5.jpg

[RazorX]

NZDUSD: Price is making lower lows, but MACD is making higher lows - bullish divergence maybe? Price seems to have stalled at the .7550 area - could've been due to the weekend coming up though. Something to watch come trading tomorrow.

1hr chart, but divergence also showing on 4 hr chart.
3698

[Pumice]

Testing .7500
I think this break down further. However I'm not putting $ on it yet.

[RazorX]

Well that support didn't hold that i previously mentioned. No bullish divergence materialsed and I sat on the side.

However I noticed a whole lot of resistance at .75 last night so I shorted right on .75 in anticipation of a break of .7450. That never happened and the price stayed between .75 and .7450. Trade currently locked in 13 pips so nothing to worry about - a little win is better than none at all! Depending on what happens with the Asian session I may exit at .7450 if the level shows no signs of breaking.

[dumbass]

hi razor, i would just be a little carefull in shorting here as i think we may see a short squeeze which should provide a jump higher and therefore much better levels to short from.

[RazorX]

Hi DA

Thanks for the heads up. I got my trailing stop taken out at +13 pips so a bit of nothing really. Like you say there may be a better retrace which to sort off. Good luck!

BTW are you going long on any rally? I notice you tend to do a lot of counter trend moves successfully.

[dumbass]

hi guys , short squeeze on 75 under pressure could be up to 76 .

i am long but only to scalp pips on the way up to better shorting levels , if we are fortunate may get to 76.

long 74.10 but very carefull .

[dumbass]

that should do for the bounce and have closed out long trades on nzd 110 + and two long aud trades 170 + 210 +.

shorts should go on against stops at 76 .30 in the kiwi and aud 1.0020 .

so set up orders as close as you are offered to these levels .

i favour more weakness in aud usd than nzd usd, so two short positions to one on short ratio.

[dumbass]

i have spent a bit of time looking through the longer time frame charts and its starting to look like we may be close to a relevant medium term low in the next couple of weeks.

targets for the aud are around 95 and 72 for the kiwi , i would expect this to be the final downleg into these price targets where we should see a bottom in price .

i would expect the same with the equity markets.

[dumbass]

that should do for the bounce and have closed out long trades on nzd 110 + and two long aud trades 170 + 210 +.

shorts should go on against stops at 76 .30 in the kiwi and aud 1.0020 .

so set up orders as close as you are offered to these levels .

i favour more weakness in aud usd than nzd usd, so two short positions to one on short ratio.

loaded up on aud shorts .9990 and .9980 stop 1.0000

5 waves down and 3 wave correction from calculated top.

can take large positions as stop is risking 20 pips and 10 pips only

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/audm1.jpg

[dumbass]

What a relief that all sovereign debt issues can be fixed by pumping a little more liquidity into the markets. i thought it may take a little longer than a week to fix the mess but hey what do i know. yeah right.

short and short and short but not yet , kiwi and aussie may run a little but what a gift .

loss of -20 , -20 , -10 pips last trade.

[roddy]

Hi DA away from desk all last week,
Agree with your comments Re kiwi and aussie. so am favouring the downside on kiwi and Aussie
on my short kiwi trade i was targeting 3 * my risk being .7150 area which it never quite got to so trailing stop got taken on kiwi and also pound.Still in Short Euro.Have you got a count on the Euro on the daily
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

hi rod , try this for size .

i would take care with your kiwi short and get out at well defined targets , i think the kiwi will correct from here or maybe a tad higher to 79 before correcting down but only to 76 area and then will run into 80s again.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/eurusdh4-1.jpg

[dumbass]

commodity block rally running out of steam at the key resistance levels of 1.0330 in aud and 89 in kiwi ( not even tested yet )

shorts set for 1.03 in aud and 78.10 in nzd .

[roddy]

Hi DA are you still short on the kiwi and AUD or did the resent up spike take you out
i am short the Eur from 1.3553. One day must be make or break time for the Euro, but they always seem to get through
somehow whether this present round will be any different remains to be seen

[Pumice]

Looks like both EUR and NZD shorts would have been doing very well.

[roddy]

Hi Pumice
went short again on EUR at 1.3167 about 600 pips up at present counting the first entry,but i do carry
quite a wide stop so only a percentage of that is locked in!
Hows your trading going?
cheers
Roddy

[Pumice]

Hi Roddy.
600 pips, gees that sounds nice!
I have had a few profitable short trades on the EUR/USD cross since 1.35 but only taking about 50-100 pips at a time. Mostly limit orders with a 50-100 spread on my SL & TP targets. (I dont have the dicipline to have open trades unfortunately)
so havent made any big money, just had a high % of profitable trades.
Am also short NZD.
Wont be doing too much trading from now until Jan. Back in NZ on holiday.
I assume liquidity will start to drain soon too, which should make things intersting.

I hope you get a few more profitable trades for xmas.

[dumbass]

What a relief that all sovereign debt issues can be fixed by pumping a little more liquidity into the markets. i thought it may take a little longer than a week to fix the mess but hey what do i know. yeah right.

short and short and short but not yet , kiwi and aussie may run a little but what a gift .

loss of -20 , -20 , -10 pips last trade.

nothing like a hedonistic self quote to show how clever i am and lets just not mention all the bollocks calls.

it pains me to have to close shorts in aud 300 + 280 + and nzd 300+ . there may be a rally from here simply to provide another short opportunity.

i have a little concern that the sentiment is reaching an extreme which may mean a significant low is close in time but not necessarilly in price if panic sets in.

im on holiday for a few weeks gl guys.

well done rod fantastic trade , i will trust you will keep the thread ticking over even though it feels like your talking to yourself.

[roddy]

Hi DA,

Have great holidays DA and Pumice there wont be any problems paying for it after all your profitable trading!

>(I dont have the dicipline to have open trades unfortunately)
>so havent made any big money, just had a high % of profitable trades.
Sounds like you have a system that suits you Pumice and a good entry strategy , I struggle with holding onto trades as well
especially when i might be up 10% in a week . My stop on the EURO is 2 * 14 daily atr which is around 300 pips above the recent low

[Toulouse - Luzern]

DA wrote:

well done rod fantastic trade , i will trust you will keep the thread ticking over even though it feels like your talking to yourself.

Agree and thanks DA, roddy Pumice for your input on the FX threads.

I have been lurking and watching during the recent volatility.

rgds

[dumbass]

caution may be warranted, the anticipated bounce from 74.60 low has occurred , the action looks impulsive 5 WAVES UP which may indicate there will be a more significant rally from here .

i have closed 2 longs for 130+ 130+ and reversed to short now 76.00 , sl 76.40, 76.25 needs to be defended , if the retracement from here is a corrective 3 waves then trade will be from the long side again.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/nzd-5.jpg

[RazorX]

Massive shooting star on the daily chart that has rejected a S/R level - anyone else short off this?
3738

[peat]

3739
anyone else short off this?

i took a buy limit long last night, triggered during sleeptime and I closed it when I woke up

[RazorX]

Hi peat - nice trade! You would have made around 40 pips? I possibly should have waited for a break of the low of the shooting star before going short... something I'll put in my tool box for the future. My trade is still running - as long as the pice doesn't go above the top of the shooting star the trade is still valid.

Merry Christmas!

[peat]

You would have made around 40 pips?
yeh only 45
i think the large bullish candle before the star means its likely we'll see more upside. but as always we'll hafta wait and see. i'm on holiday now and will be offline in Oz so just havin a little flutter before I go... not a great time of the year to be trading really anyway.

[Pumice]

Anyone out there in FX land know why the TRY just spiked 100 pips against the Yen while no other yen cross moved?
seems odd. hard to find any news.

[peat]

the Eur/Try went down as well, so I guess the change in sentiment relates to the TRY itself. but of the reason for that I have no clue.

[Pumice]

Central bank intervention, to strenghen the Lira. Thats quite original these days!

"Still, some excitement came from Turkey, where the central bank intervened to support the wilting lira. The dollar dropped sharply from TRY1.92 to just under TRY1.86 by 1127 GMT as the central bank sold foreign currencies. "

[roddy]

Hi All

>i am short the Eur from 1.3553.
> again at 1.3167

All the best for a pip filled year

this trade is up 1,100 pips on the Euro,the recent drop has had it fall back into its down-trend channel starting 31 10 2011
my stop is now at 1.3037
overnight it took out the 2011 support low at 1.2883 which is encouraging as it opens up the possibility of 1.25

cheers
roddy

[Pumice]

Good stuff Roddy. thats some serious profit.

The EUR has been easy money recently.
All eyes will be on the Italian bond auction in Feb. could be make or break for the EUR.
1.25 isnt too far away, only 200 pips.

[roddy]

Thanks Pumice i hope you have a pip filled year, i am looking forward to when everyone gets back and posting,Oh BTW how did or is your holiday back here in NZ going

cheers
roddy

[roddy]

With volatility dropping and a new low have moved my stop up to 1.2930.i am using a 2*atr as a stop be interesting to see if euro can take out the weekly pivot at 1.2830 which is 32.2 % retracement of the
last push lower

[Pumice]

Looks like you are still on track roddy
Didnt quite make that 1.2830 retacement.

The EUR has been a one way street this year. has been very profitable.

[Pumice]

Another mass downgrade of europe. 200 pip drop overnight.
Thats gotta put a smile on your face roddy.
I didnt catch any of that unfortunately.

[roddy]

Hi Pumice sorry for slow reply havent been on sharetrader for awhile.
yes i have a smile on my face! my stop is at 1.2879 after the drop you
mentioned.The next target is support at 1.25 which is support from 28 august 2010
there is a broadening pattern from 9/01 on the daily which could be a possible base for a retrace up but
as yet its all looking bearish

[roddy]

I got stopped out on the Euro trade last night for 963 pips profit.
the Euro is now outside of its downtrend channel and has already retraced 23.6 of the original down move to 1.2960 the next fib 38.2 comes in at 1.3250.When DA gets back he will be able to give a likely count upward until then happy trading

[Pumice]

Couldnt find it on any NZ media site, but it looks like China are imposing increasing tarrifs on your milk.
up from 5% to 10%

hence the fall in the NZD

Didnt expect that, I thought NZ had a solid relationship with China (in terms of trade anyway)
Payback for Crafer?

[peat]

Couldnt find it on any NZ media site, but it looks like China are imposing increasing tarrifs on your milk.
up from 5% to 10%

hence the fall in the NZD

Didnt expect that, I thought NZ had a solid relationship with China (in terms of trade anyway)
Payback for Crafer?

yeh thats how it initially struck me too Pumice, however an article I read said this was always part of the deal and fully available information and therefore theoretically at least should not have caused the movement - not sure of the link exactly but was probably a nzherald or a stuff article.

[peat]

haha
i think the forex market is saying
sod you Bollard

[Pumice]

100 pis in a few hours!
I think Bollard would have more success saying he wants to see the NZD rise.

I take US GDP or NFP was horrible again this week....

[Pumice]

NZD/USD under 79c AUD/NZD back over 1.28
My student loan just got a whole lot cheaper! wahoo

[dumbass]

loaded up big on the risk off long nzd trade, probably more a technical short squeeze but if a sentiment change follows, price may really rally.

[Pumice]

Still holding the long trade DA? Japanese downgrade might knock the wind out of risk a bit.
I still hold a decent NZD short trade. Although i have a very long term goal in mind.

[dumbass]

hi pumice , bailed on this one for a few , i still like the idea of a short squeeze

very high risk but will look to long 75.20 with a tight 40 pip stop , this could be very profitable but risky.

[Pumice]

NZD looks pretty weak to me.
Looks to have broken .7500 as well. More downside I suspect.
I'm not ballsy enough to fight this down trend.

I'm also looking to short gold on a breach of 1500 (If it ever breaks that formidable support)

[dumbass]

hi pumice , bailed on this one for a few , i still like the idea of a short squeeze

very high risk but will look to long 75.20 with a tight 40 pip stop , this could be very profitable but risky.

squeeze it did , 3 long positions on 75,76,76.50 for 450 + 350 + and 300+, i will close all long positions here and look for a short entry

80 should provide heavy resistance so i will short from 79.50 79.70 with a tight stop at 80.25

[Pumice]

Nice trade!

Whats you target on the short, when and if this turns?

[dumbass]

hi pumice , this is an agressive entry and may be a bit premature , if 80 breaks probably have another look around 81 for a short entry target 68

[Pumice]

Cheers DA.
I haven’t jumped in yet, .80 is holding for now. I’m happy to wait for a better signal.
.68 wow that’s a big move. I hope you’re right.

[Entrep]

Hmm 68, you expect the share markets to tank too DA?

[dumbass]

Hmm 68, you expect the share markets to tank too DA?

i think it will but not quite yet.

i will close my short positions in kiwi for a small profit here , uptrend still looks intact for the moment , should find better short levels higher up.
i would now be looking at 80.80 area if seen.

[Pumice]

i think it will but not quite yet.

i will close my short positions in kiwi for a small profit here , uptrend still looks intact for the moment , should find better short levels higher up.
i would now be looking at 80.80 area if seen.

Good timing, GDP surprised to the upside, almost triples expectations.
Things aren’t so bad in NZ after all.

Might be awhile before a short opportunity presents itself.

[dumbass]

Yep that was an impressive number , technically the kiwi looks good for further upside and i shall buy on dips.

[dumbass]

Significant night time action has most likely signalled the end of the uptrend, i will now go heavy short with anything into the 79's seen today with a stop against yesterdays high.
Expecting new lows in the kiwi if this is the real deal. G/l guys.

[peat]

s4018I was initially long but somthing made me go short last night

[dumbass]

I have spent a bit of time over the weekend looking at the kiwi and it still looks good for a short.

Im not sure this will be the big short im hunting for but should be profitable all the same.

Looking to get short into the 79.40 area , the stop should be wider than the recent 80.16 high

to allow for a break and fail. Target 77 and could be quick.

Still looking at 68 but not ready yet.

[dumbass]

Shorts on at 79.40 and more at 79.50 , nice move lower which can be added to against 79.60 now for more dowside .

[Pumice]

Shorts on at 79.40 and more at 79.50 , nice move lower which can be added to against 79.60 now for more dowside .

As you pointed out Previously, NZD has struggled with the 80c mark, so hopefully we will see it slide to 68.

[dumbass]

Hi pumice , i see nothing to change my long term target of 68 at present.

On a more medium term view the clues are starting to appear suggesting a downtrend to 77 area where i would expect kiwi to reverse and have another crack at 80 probably getting up to
81 to 82 before the preverbial hits the fan and takes us down rapidly.
Hope this helps and i will keep you informed how things are progressing.

[Pumice]

Hi pumice , i see nothing to change my long term target of 68 at present.

On a more medium term view the clues are starting to appear suggesting a downtrend to 77 area where i would expect kiwi to reverse and have another crack at 80 probably getting up to
81 to 82 before the preverbial hits the fan and takes us down rapidly.
Hope this helps and i will keep you informed how things are progressing.


NZD is looking pretty shaky.
NZ PMI data and Aus employment data wasn’t too flash. No doubt the slowdown in Chinese GDP will have had a negative effect as well.
Hopefully this is the start of a big bear leg. I haven’t added to my position yet though, will wait for a break of 79 first.
Are you trading/looking at anything else DA?

[dumbass]

NZD is looking pretty shaky.
NZ PMI data and Aus employment data wasn’t too flash. No doubt the slowdown in Chinese GDP will have had a negative effect as well.
Hopefully this is the start of a big bear leg. I haven’t added to my position yet though, will wait for a break of 79 first.
Are you trading/looking at anything else DA?

hi pumice , there was a nice long this week on the aud , i tried to post in over the weekend but i think the sharetrader site was down , never mind plenty more where that came from.

3 long trades on at 1.012 1.018 1.020 for currently + 520 pips , i think we may see a retrace from here but it should be quite shallow, i will target 1.0480 area to close longs and reverse for a short.

the internal waves suggest one more wave higher from here.