Nzd.usd

[dumbass]

4057Big picture aussie , looks like a triangle on daily,

this is what im hoping could be a ride for 800+ pips to the short side.

[dumbass]

hi pumice , there was a nice long this week on the aud , i tried to post in over the weekend but i think the sharetrader site was down , never mind plenty more where that came from.

3 long trades on at 1.012 1.018 1.020 for currently + 520 pips , i think we may see a retrace from here but it should be quite shallow, i will target 1.0480 area to close longs and reverse for a short.

the internal waves suggest one more wave higher from here.

the final wave higher did eventually materialise but with a more significant retrace than i anticipated , i kept the faith in the count and got another long position on .

the rsi has been a reasonable indicator of trend change when it has entered overbought and is currently hinting at an uptrend that may struggle higher from here .

target was 1.0480 which was touched but i will hang on for a little more then look for a short entry gl

+ 1200 pips

[Pumice]

the final wave higher did eventually materialise but with a more significant retrace than i anticipated , i kept the faith in the count and got another long position on .

the rsi has been a reasonable indicator of trend change when it has entered overbought and is currently hinting at an uptrend that may struggle higher from here .

target was 1.0480 which was touched but i will hang on for a little more then look for a short entry gl

+ 1200 pips


Cheers DA, was a solid rally by the AUD.
I'm waiting on the sidelines until the market turns down again.

[dumbass]

the final wave higher did eventually materialise but with a more significant retrace than i anticipated , i kept the faith in the count and got another long position on .

the rsi has been a reasonable indicator of trend change when it has entered overbought and is currently hinting at an uptrend that may struggle higher from here .

target was 1.0480 which was touched but i will hang on for a little more then look for a short entry gl

+ 1200 pips

seems like a logical place to close longs , 3 failed attempts to break 1.0530 at channel resistance

closed for 1300+ pips at 1.0520

shorts on 1.0520 stops at 1.0560

i feel there may be more upside into 1.06 - 1.07 but time for a retracement and may be wrong and this could be the start of a more signifcant move south.

[dumbass]

seems like a logical place to close longs , 3 failed attempts to break 1.0530 at channel resistance

closed for 1300+ pips at 1.0520

shorts on 1.0520 stops at 1.0560

i feel there may be more upside into 1.06 - 1.07 but time for a retracement and may be wrong and this could be the start of a more signifcant move south.

forex markets coiling tight for a big move , still like the downside with various shorts on .

[dumbass]

forex markets coiling tight for a big move , still like the downside with various shorts on .

weekly looking bearish4082

[dumbass]

weekly looking bearish4082

still holding short with 2 shorts on from 1.0570 and 1.0530 + 800 pips

target aroung 1.01 where i would expect some reaction , where is everyone?

4110

[miner]

Nice trades DA :t_up:

[dumbass]

Nice trades DA :t_up:

hey miner , how's the u trades going , its been pretty dead around here lately , shame really as there has been some awesome trade set ups.

[Pumice]

hey miner , how's the u trades going , its been pretty dead around here lately , shame really as there has been some awesome trade set ups.

Picked up some respectable pips on a few NZD shorts.
Do you think the the AUD and NZD downtrend will hold over the medium to longer term?

[dumbass]

Picked up some respectable pips on a few NZD shorts.
Do you think the the AUD and NZD downtrend will hold over the medium to longer term?

im still following the traingle scenario on the weeklys, which means the aud is going a lot lower.
see previous chart.

normally the e wave of the triangle ( currently unfolding ) is a 3 wave affair.
i would say rally at the moment should be sold.

[miner]

Hi DA sorry for the late reply but been busy with other stuff,just fired up some charts and see that EUR/USD has broken to the top side of my north bound channel on the daily and is now also above a fairly long term downtrend line I have.

Always have a look at what you post:),hope all going well.

Cheers
Miner

[Pumice]

im still following the traingle scenario on the weeklys, which means the aud is going a lot lower.
see previous chart.

normally the e wave of the triangle ( currently unfolding ) is a 3 wave affair.
i would say rally at the moment should be sold.

Open ended QE isnt going to help USD long trades.

Will it ever end....

[Fudosan]

Open ended QE isnt going to help USD long trades.

Will it ever end....The long awaited QE3 is finally here. Isn't it nice these days that you can create prosperity by simply printing more money?

[miner]

Just had a look,held obove my lines and up 300 odd pips :).

[dumbass]

Just had a look,held obove my lines and up 300 odd pips :).

Spot on and a nice trade. I personally hold a little sceptism about the legs on this move.

It was well telegraphed and with the whole world short usd i like the usd long side , but very

counter trend trade which requires extreme caution.

Gl guys and good to see a few posts

[miner]

Hi DA,just had a look and put on another 200 odd pips, got to get the odd one right:eek2:,would have taken out a few shorts,with eur/usd it's a bit of a case of which one is further up sh*t creek than the other:confused:,so can get a bit dodgy playing it.

[lakedaemonian]

The long awaited QE3 is finally here. Isn't it nice these days that you can create prosperity by simply printing more money?

Although it's worth mentioning QE3 is more of a Mini-QE3...only about a 1/4 to a 1/5 of what many were expecting.

[dumbass]

maybe something significant happening to the downside in the aud.
there is a trendline up there at 1.06 , with a potential double top, dailies posted a bearish evening star and some fib lines too.
like i said before the world is short the usd so plenty of fuel for a good run south .
could QE3 be old news, 2 short trades on for 400+
i suspect with a lot of upperward momentum there may be a few more twists but lets see .
4134

[Fudosan]

Although it's worth mentioning QE3 is more of a Mini-QE3...only about a 1/4 to a 1/5 of what many were expecting.Why mini if QE3 is open-ended? It can go on for years.

[macduffy]

Interesting article here on what's driving the AUD. A few clues relevant to the NZD, given our close correlation to AUD.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/australian-dollar-resources-bonds-iron-ore-commodi-pd20120917-Y8475?opendocument&src=idp&emcontent_asx_currency&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=104821&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=commentary

[Fudosan]

From your businessspectator.com.au article.

For over three decades Australia has persistently run a current account deficit, averaging close to 4 per cent of GDP over the period.
We are not much better. Since 1974 NZ's current account has always been in the red, because even in good years any trade surplus is overwhelmed by the enormous interest and dividend payment.

[Pumice]

NZD (&AUD) looking heavy, Will add to my shorts with a break of .8180 (apparently a few SL orders at that level)
Anyone else catching any of this?

[dumbass]

maybe something significant happening to the downside in the aud.
there is a trendline up there at 1.06 , with a potential double top, dailies posted a bearish evening star and some fib lines too.
like i said before the world is short the usd so plenty of fuel for a good run south .
could QE3 be old news, 2 short trades on for 400+
i suspect with a lot of upperward momentum there may be a few more twists but lets see .
4134

Still riding this one ."patience grasshopper"

[Pumice]

The NZD is a resilient beast isn’t it. Particularly given EUR, AUD and Gold’s weakness (or USD strength; however you want to view it)
How’s everyone’s trading going? Any trade setup ideas out there?

[Pumice]

7.3% unemployment rate, that’s a shocker NZ!!
NZD down almost 1c

[dragonz]

Anybody having trouble logging into IG markets this morning?

[Pumice]

Anyone out there in FX land know why the TRY just spiked 100 pips against the Yen while no other yen cross moved?
seems odd. hard to find any news.

Have been loving Shinzo abe. have an ave TRY/JPY position of 45.60
Over 1000 pips of unrealised gains.
Not selling these trades as the carry provides me with $14 a day.

Best trade I have ever had! targeting 85.

Any one else profit from JPY carry trade?

[Valuegrowth]

New Zealanddollar could fall to a level not seen in about three years in the next few months.

I believe NZ dollar will go down sharply due to new development. It is overpriced by 45% against USD. During last couple of years it has appreciated by more than 50% against some Asian currencies. Now this cycle has reversed and NZD will go down not only against USD but also against some Asian currencies. I cannot understand reason behind appreciation of NZD. May be some carry traders including speculators must have parked their money in NZD. Now one by one currency players are unwinding their positions in both AUD and NZD. When everybody tries to take out of money from both AUD and NZD these currencies can tumble to the one of the lowest levels.

Now analysts including global banking analysts are revising their year endtarget and target in 2014 for NZD.

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-11/wheeler-s-peashooter-finds-its-mark-as-kiwi-slumps-currencies.html)http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...urrencies.html

Wheeler’s Peashooter Finds Its Mark as Kiwi Slumps: Currencies

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10889664 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10889664)

Skids go under kiwi dollar - may fall further

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...1-91395e7ab788 (http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=16aa07b5-7502-4020-9101-91395e7ab788)

NZD/USD continues bear trend

Lower NZD will benefit some sectors in the economy and NZ economy will become one of the strongest economies in the world in the long run.

In short NZD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle and the dollar(USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle. However there can be dead cat bounce for NZD time to time. Intermediate trend for NZD is down now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in theabove hyper-linked sites.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10891827

Kiwi dollar drops sharply on GDP, Fed news

[Valuegrowth]

Both NZD and AUD went up in value during the past four years due to hot overseas money. Now this money is flooding out of these countries. That so called carry trade has ended now. Since these countries floated their dollars, Australia and New Zealand have become favourite hot place for worldwide speculative money trading.

Speculative money flows are short term, and will flee at the sight of trouble. There is a regime shift now. AUSTRALIAN bond futures are weaker as hedge funds reacted tothe situation.

There are some benefits in lower NZ dollar and Australian dollar

1. Rising import cost will bring some relief for New Zealand and Australian -based manufacturers.
2. Export sector will expand. A lower dollar makes export prices more attractive for overseas buyers,boosting our domestic output.
3. New Zealand andAustralian companies with significant overseas operations also will benefitbecause the lower dollar boosts the repatriated profit of companies with overseas operations.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

In the short run NZD can appreciate against AUD while having some volatility.However both AUD and NZD will continually go down against USD while having small rebound and volatility time to time. In the past NZD has traded as lowas 0.39 against USD. In the recent past NZD traded around 0.80 against USD. Now it is trading around 0.78 against USD. Now the currency cycle has changed and over valued currencies will go down gradually. When AUD go down against USD, NZD too will go down against USD in the same manner. We can also see falling interest rate in Australia and New Zealand too will follow their cousin sooner than later just like in Europe and USA in the past.In short still we have not seen biggest drop in NZD against USD. I believe after bitcoin and gold both NZD and AUD can go down dramatically.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency.Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Pumice]

Worth shorting the NZD with this Fontera botulism issue?

[Valuegrowth]

I believe among currencies NZD has more potential to fall against basket of currencies in the coming months. The kiwi mat stay under pressure in the coming years as well. So far NZD dollar was resilient and this situation may change sooner than later. Arguably one of the overpriced currencies in the world. If we compare with basket of currencies during last 10 years it is at the top of the chart.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

WOW...sudden fall in the kiwi
I don't think the market expected the RB to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5%

[Valuegrowth]

If I am correct it is true AUD hit 8 Years low against NZD recently. This situation could change during next 24 months. Just like stock markets currencies also have cycles. I believe NZD could depreciate against USD and GBP faster than AUD in the coming months. In the medium run and long run NZD could depreciate against AUD rapidly. It is time to study currency cycles. I consider NZD as number on overvalued currency in the world now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[winner69]

Marketwinner - be good if the NZD fell against the Dirham. Would give a better return on me Marakesh Express (ME) shares

ANd me Aussie share would be a good bet as well eh

[Bobcat.]

When Equity markets drop, money flows into hard currency, which is not the NZD but (yes, still) the USD. This happened last Friday night, and will happen again next time (later this week?) that the S&P500 and DJIA fall sharply away.

My pick is that the NZD/USD will fall over the next month or two. The trigger may be tomorrow morning's FOMC statement, projections and Yellen's speech (7am NZT)...although I'm mindful of the modern Fed placing a very high priority on its comms and market manipulation. She's new and will not want to scare the markets or upset the boat (not just consumer confidence but also her Bankster bosses). I'm expecting lots of positive vibes re the US Economic 'recovery' as she talks it up...which may lift the DOW and S&P500 momentarily, but like any good cocaine hit, the hard reality of excessive debt, relatively high Corporate P/E ratios and derivative risks will bring Equity markets back to earth not long after. It's then that I will be shorting the NZD/USD.

Trading to it.

BC

[Bobcat.]

I purchased BEAR.asx this afternoon - only 5% of my portfolio but it's my first parcel, and if it drops under 1800 I'll be buying more.

Re shorting the NZD, I use Interactive Brokers and pick the best FOREX combination before taking a position. I need to analyse a bit more completely but initial impressions see CAD and NZD both weakening against the USD. AUD probably as well but more so once their Reserve Bank Governor talks it down again, as he likes to do - to bolster his tax revenue from the mining sector and delay interest rate cuts.

That's how I'm reading it at the mo' but like I say, I've not yet completed my FOREX analysis. I'll let you know when I've done so, and have traded a currency combo, if you like - by PM?

[Valuegrowth]

Marketwinner - be good if the NZD fell against the Dirham. Would give a better return on me Marakesh Express (ME) shares

ANd me Aussie share would be a good bet as well eh

Dear Winner69

I gave up following markets which are situated very far away from NZ. So Morocco is not under my radar. I decided to follow Asian Pacific markets including their currencies. Only exception is USA market and USD. Because still it is number one reserve currency in the world. . NZD is still stubborn. Some are talking about parity with AUD now. Do you have any idea about this with your number of years experience in this region of market? Thank and regards

[Valuegrowth]

I believe sooner than later we could see end of bull market for both AUD and NZD once we see shift in the currency cycle. We could see bigger drop in NZD and AUD against USD especially during second half this year. Thereafter down trend could continue until 2016 while having volatility. In short both NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Over valued NZD and AUD are more vulnerable now. We may have to apply ‘Be fearful when others are greedy” for overvalued currencies such as NZD and AUD. The time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.

http://www.american.com/archive/2014/may/are-the-u-s-dollar2019s-days-really-numbered

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

Weaker dairy prices could drive the New Zealand dollar further down. Now BNZ expects the currency to fall to US79c by year's end. I think it may go to around US70c by the end of this year. I also believe it could go down to as low as around US$50 during next 18 months. As I expected we could see fall in New Zealand dollar against other currencies such as AUD, USD and Asian currencies from the second half of this year.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency.Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

MW, what do you base your predictions on? Surely not dairy prices alone?

You are right. I believe in stock market, commodity and currency cycles. There are also cycles for business and industries. Some cycles last for a longer period. New Zeeland lost export competitiveness for some industries due to higher NZD. There were some hot money in NZD and AUD as well. What will happen if they unwind those positions? I was wary about forecast for AUD when it was trading nearly par with USD. Remember AUD became so hot I can remember one analyst forecasted that AUD would trade 1.50 of USD. After that what happened was intelligent top currency investors started to short the AUD. For me NZD is more vulnerable than AUD.

How do you think about following link? According to following link money inflows into New Zealand after the financial crisis helped the New Zealand dollar to go up by 85 percent against the U.S. dollar. Even we find these types of things in other countries as well. These are just predictions. Crisis will come when nobody is prepared in any country at any time. It is not limited to New Zealand. Crisis may come. These crises create opportunities too.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2014/04/17/12-reasons-why-new-zealands-economic-bubble-will-end-in-disaster/

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site. Please do your own research.

[Valuegrowth]

Just like dairy prices both NZD and AUD also will fall against USD in the coming months.

Both AUD and NZD are more vulnerable to bad news. I don’ think that the carry trade position for European and Japanese investors will be attractive hereafter due to uncertainty situation, potential for depreciation of AUD and NZD and the slowing both Australia's terms of trade and commodity prices. Any speculative leaving in long positions could lead to free fall in AUD and NZD.Fed Stimulus Withdrawal policy will also hurt both New Zealand and Aussie Dollar.AB forecasts predict the Australian dollar at US87¢ for the end of September and US85¢ by end 2014.Three is a concern around the sustainability of Australia's triple-A credit rating. According to some analysts the Australian dollar would fall in line with the dip in the iron ore price to below $US100 a tonne. Consumer confidence is also not that good.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

[QUOTE=SimonHouse;485303]Marketwinner - I genuinely am interested in your forex post above. perhaps you might link to the website that you

Simonhouse-Do you think everybody who buys NZD and AUD are investors? No. There are currency speculators, traders and other sophisticated players who use different types of instruments. They didn’t have place to park their hot money. They found places like GOLD, NZD and AUD. They know everyday cannot make money by betting in one direction. We need seasonal adjustments to our portfolio to reduce our risks. We have to adjust our portfolios and strategy by following market trend, currency trend and commodity trend. Lower NZD is good for the export sector. Unemployed youth will have some opportunities in export companies. Continues higher or lower currency rate is not good for any economy. It is a warning sign for coming crisis.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

I very often Google on topic that I like and then I read them If I find something interesting. The most recent was link from Australia. I couldn’t save it and if I find it I will forward it to you. If you type NZD on Google you can find lot of things. Not everything I read take as 100% correct. However there are some intelligent writings on www. There are lot of things such as 10 year chart on currencies on www.

[Entrep]

nzforex
asb securities

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.centralbanking.com/central-banking/news/2355742/us-dollar-unlikely-to-be-replaced-as-leading-reserve-currency

ECB sees no clear rival to US dollar as global currency

[kiora]

https://www.igot.com/static/send_money
I haven't tried this & don't know any one who has but may be the way of the future ?

any helpful idea's on the best place to transfer $400k NZD into USD, my bank wants to charge me 2%

[skid]

I used NZ FOREX--just make sure your bank doesnt charge to take them out (when your ready) some banks charge 1% --I had a $US acc. at ANZ because they dont charge to move them out (eventually back to NZ Forex and back into $Kiwi.

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.poundsterlinglive.com/exchange-rate-forecasts/890-us-dollar-forecasts-2014-the-year-of-the-usd

US Dollar Forecasts 2014: The Year of the USD? (http://www.poundsterlinglive.com/exchange-rate-forecasts/890-us-dollar-forecasts-2014-the-year-of-the-usd)

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/new-zealand-dollar-vulnernable-to-intervention-ubs-says.html

New Zealand Dollar Vulnernable to Intervention, UBS Says

[winner69]

Its hanging there moosie .... hang in there you brave little battler

Have a breather over the weekend and come back refreshed next week, I be cheering you on

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11314345
NZ dollar holds at six-month low

[FarmerGeorge]

Not usually a forex guy but haven't been able to ignore this in 2014. Potentially another big week coming up: GDT and Fed meeting as well. Right now we are well through 82c. Not sure where the next stop is - anyone hazard a guess?

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-24/euro-trades-near-14-month-low-before-draghi-speaks-aussie-drops.html

Kiwi Slumps on Wheeler Comments; U.S. Dollar at Four-Year High

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/09/26/new-zealand-dollar-shorts-were-the-best-trade-over-the-past-week/

New Zealand dollar shorts were the best trade over the past week

[winner69]

http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/a-scary-story-for-emerging-markets

Wasn't that many years ago (even in this century) that we only got 40 cents for our buck

As the man said at the end of the article - It is indeed every central bank and country for itself, and that is a recipe for volatility and financial losses. If you think this story has a happy ending, you are not paying attention to history.

[winner69]

For those who love wedgies - one 30 plus years wedge breakout .... and all hell to break out around the world as a consequence as above linked article

[Valuegrowth]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/blame-cows-kiwi-dollar-may-024758352.html

Blame the cows: Kiwi dollar may stumble

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.fxempire.com/fundamental/fundamental-analysis-reports/nzdusd-fundamental-analysis-january-5-2015-forecast/

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis January 5, 2015 Forecast

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries...eds-kiwi-dollar (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/65295433/canadian-cut-bleeds-kiwi-dollar)

Canadian cut bleeds kiwi dollar

[okay]

Interesting interview for anyone following the USD

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102376873

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11395988

NZ dollar plunges after Aussie rate cut

[Entrep]

NZD has blown past 75c!

[Valuegrowth]

Can USD go higher and higher in the coming years?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/the-9-trillion-short-that-s-seen-sending-the-dollar-even-higher

The $9 Trillion Short That’s Seen Sending the Dollar Even Higher

[whatsup]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/blame-cows-kiwi-dollar-may-024758352.html

Blame the cows: Kiwi dollar may stumble

And still falling today after the latest milk auction .6720 !!

[whatsup]

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/blame-cows-kiwi-dollar-may-024758352.html

Blame the cows: Kiwi dollar may stumble

And still falling today after the latest milk auction .6720 !!

[Bobcat.]

I have just now bought in at .6711. The AUD is also dragging our dollar down. We usually get a pivot around 11:50 - noon...but today's looks like it's come earlier. Check out the NZD/USD downward trendline. It's just touched.

[Bobcat.]

This NZD/USD rate is the lowest it's been since 31 May 2010 - when it touched 67c before rising sharply. Yes, we rely a lot on dairy, and since the EU took off it's production quotas three months ago, global prices have been sliding, but our economy is not in the doldrums and IMO in better shape than it was back in 2010.

The GBP/NZD this week rose to 2.329 which is the highest it's been since Sept 2009...and it's about to test (bounce-off?) a price close to that again this morning. Support the kiwi...and reap the rewards.

Discl: now long.

[whatsup]

And still falling today after the latest milk auction .6720 !! how about .6709 !!

[Bobcat.]

Have you looked at the NZD/USD's downward trend-line for this week? The bottoms on 29/6, 30/6 and today line up...which often (not always but often) produce a third bounce...in fact the third (like today's) is usually more pronounced.

Of course there is another downward trendline to be a bit cautious about (which is why I often use stops). Last month's bottoms on 6/6, 18/6 and 24/6 indicate we might get a fourth at around .6705 today...but that's so close to my buy price I won't bother placing a stop.

...now .6712 and looks to be holding, even with the AUD trading weak. If the AUD/NZD cross fails again to reach 1.14 (as it did yesterday), we might find that yesterday's 1.1385 head and shoulder pattern is confirmed.

Should be an interesting day's trading - pivotal IMO.

[whatsup]

how about .6709 !!

Cannot see it breaching .67 ATM but if another fall in dairy next time then who knows , at least the dairy boys get some respite in the dairy price via the dollar

[Entrep]

Hi Bobcat look forward to reading further analysis. I have some AUD from my time living there I am waiting to convert and some USD as well, so am pleased with the NZD dropping. From what I can tell the NZD is falling through AUD and USD support levels quite easily?

[whatsup]

Cannot see it breaching .67 ATM but if another fall in dairy next time then who knows , at least the dairy boys get some respite in the dairy price via the dollar
WELL sods law now .6701 !!

[Bobcat.]

I should never have given up my day job. Back to the drawing board....

...edit: Oh, wait a minute - could this be a rebound? If it breaks thru resistance at .6706 then I'll get bullish agin.

A shocking Trade Balance across the ditch (t.b.a. 1:30pm) could stifle any rebound here of course. We'll see in around 40mins. I've just gone short on the AUD/NZD at 1.1410 to hedge against the impact of a disappointing result.

[whatsup]

WELL sods law now .6701 !!

WELL .6680 low for the day !!

[Pumice]

WELL .6680 low for the day !!

Solid downtrend don't you think?
I have been short for awhile, but just about to exit my last one. (under .6655) but I expect this to keep going. RBNZ cut in July, Fed hike in September and its game over for the NZD.

[Bobcat.]

Get in boys - the Kiwi will not be this cheap again for a long time. Time to go long (IMO) against either the USD, CHF, GBP or JPY. Double tops/bottoms are a sure enough signal for me. Not against the AUD, that's come off a lot already over the past 24 hours.

Discl: Now long against the CHF and USD.

[Entrep]

Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.

[Pumice]

Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.

Yeah I wouldn't be fighting this LT downtrend (No double bottom in sight on the daily charts). Potential hikes by the FED and cuts by RBNZ to come. Might get a ST bounce if Greece sorts itself out.
I'm calling circa 60 by year end.

7454

[Bobcat.]

Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.

NZD/USD bottomed at 66.60 at midnight on the 2nd then rebounded off 66.75 at 2am on the 4th to close later that day up at 66.90. It may drop a little tomorrow to test 66.75 but don't be surprised if it rises from there throughout the week. The AUD/USD is also ripe for a rebound.

Given Thursday morning's 6% drop in GDT prices, I'd be very surprised if another 25bps is not already factored into the NZD/USD market price.

Also bullish on NZD/GBP.

Discl: long

[Bobcat.]

Double bottom over what period? It's the lowest against the USD in 5 years.

Have a look at the .6280 double bottom on the NZD/CHF on the night of June 30th and morning of July 4th. The CHF has been strengthening more than the USD partly due to fears about China's equity market volatility these past few days. If and when that settles, there's good percentage gains to be made on the NZD/CHF cross. I'm now long with a stop at .6274.

[Daytr]

A no vote in Greece tonight could see more risk off & potential further sell off in NZD & AUD as there is flight to the USD.

[whatsup]

On the slippery slope again b!oody Greeks .6650 !

[Bobcat.]

There's the double bottom you chaps were looking for @66.60. It went lower to 66.54 for about 2 mins before shooting up to now sit at around 66.80. That's a bullish bounce in my view. Even the Greeks can't push this one down now. Onward and upward.

I'm also now bullish on the AUD/USD - anything under 75c has to attract some psychological support given that a) this past week it's dropped from a high of 77.40...and b) this is the lowest it's been since Feb 2009 in the depths of the GFC. And so I also bought into it this morning before it bounced up to now sit at around 74.88.

Go you good thing...

[Entrep]

Struggling to find much significance in movements up and down over such a small time frame versus the 25% down trend running since September last year. There must have been hundreds if not thousands of such double bottoms/tops etc over the last 12 months.

[Bobcat.]

jeez I hope you are looking to trade a short term bounce as I believe the next OCR cut and attach rechtoric will put further downwards pressure on the Kiwi

The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).

The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.

IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.

BC

[stoploss]

The Reserve Bank wanted to get the NZD down to protect the economy in light of its exposure to dropping GDT prices. A lower than expected CPI/Inflation figure also paved the way for a cut. Since their 25bps OCR cut last month, the NZD has dropped a lot against most major currencies. This is also thanks to the plummeting AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA interest rate announcement (which more analysts are now forecasting to drop).

The market has brought the NZD down to about where the NZRB hoped it would go after their OCR cut (down about 8%). Why cut the rate again already when they would be wiser to instead do that later after the NZD has lifted a bit? I liken it to the gopher arcade game where you wait until it rears its ugly head before hammering it down. There's no point in hammering it down again until it's lifted.

IMO a second 25bps OCR cut is already factored in, and we may well see no change until later this year. The contrarian in me is trading against current market expectation.

BC
Ballsiest move I ever saw Mav ....
BC they are not just cutting the OCR to lower the Kiwi , and therefore lift the return on exports . They are also cutting it to ease the repayment burden on the over leveraged dairy farmers, not to mention a few hefty Auckland mortgages ...Best way for a central bank to operate is to get ahead of the curve , not behind when it's too late . What's a little bit of inflation between friends .

[Bobcat.]

Big lift over the past 12 hours for the NZD against most currencies, esp the GBP and AUD. Dropping back a little today but that was a momentum shift and so expect another rise over the next few hours. The worm has turned.

...it looks like it's starting now off around 67c - get in.

[Bobcat.]

Now 67.40 (almost half a cent lift in just half an hour) - did you get in?

AUD also lifting off some good employment numbers and Chinese CPI lift. Go you good thing(s).

Make that 67.55. I've just now sold...to ride the next wave.

[Daytr]

Nice trade BC, although I would say its a dangerous game to play the wrong side of a very strong trend and any bounce like we have just seen is a good opportunity to sell.

[Bobcat.]

You're behind the times, Daytr - take a look at the graph. Downward resistance was broken yesterday (8pm NZST) at around 66.70.

7469

It's onward and upward from here. You won't buy the NZD cheaper against the GBP, CHF and USD than it was yesterday, for a very long time...IMO.

[Daytr]

Big call & maybe you are right, but not into bottom picking & would rather see a clearer trend.
The Kiwi has come a very long way. In saying that if you look at pre EURO which caused massive weakness in the USD this level would have been considered high for the NZD.
Perhaps the Kiwi maybe seen as a bit of a safe haven as so far away from where the chaos is, however history is against it.
I think the RBNZ will lower rates by another 75-100bps yet & I would suggest at most half of that is factored in.
You may see more upside tonight after the FED as I think they will be kicking the can down the road on interest rate hikes, but its a bit of a guess.

[Pumice]

Big call & maybe you are right, but not into bottom picking & would rather see a clearer trend.
The Kiwi has come a very long way. In saying that if you look at pre EURO which caused massive weakness in the USD this level would have been considered high for the NZD.
Perhaps the Kiwi maybe seen as a bit of a safe haven as so far away from where the chaos is, however history is against it.
I think the RBNZ will lower rates by another 75-100bps yet & I would suggest at most half of that is factored in.
You may see more upside tonight after the FED as I think they will be kicking the can down the road on interest rate hikes, but its a bit of a guess.

I'm with Daytr on this one. seems like a solid downtrend in the kiwi. 88 to just over 66 with no higher lows or higher highs in all of that range that I can see (depending on your time frame).
What's your target BC? will be interested to see how far this corrects (or trends as the case may be).

[Bobcat.]

What data are you looking at? There have been higher highs with all of the NZD/USD, NZD/GBP, NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY four times these past two days. Bother to do your research before you post.

Here's the NZD/USD chart for this week:

7472

[Pumice]

What data are you looking at? There have been higher highs with all of the NZD/USD, NZD/GBP, NZD/CHF and NZD/JPY four times these past two days. Bother to do your research before you post.

Here's the NZD/USD chart for this week:

7472

I'm looking at the daily chart BC (as shown). and just NZD/USD as the thread is titled.

Thanks for the chart. I see what you are saying, but lets keep this friendly eh. we all have different time frames and TA.
I'm curious on your long target though. I cant tell if you are expecting 68 or 88.
I'm still targeting 63c in the medium term - i.e next 3-6 months. (just my "research")

[Daytr]

I wouldn't mind seeing a little higher before I short. I think its possible we see high 0.68s and that might be a nice level about there.

[Pumice]

Nice break below 66. Looks like the trend lower will continue. Poor gdt reading this morning.

[Bobcat.]

Sorry folks - I never anticipated the very large (10.7%) drop last night in the global dairy trade price index.

Unless our QoQ CPI (to be announced in a couple of hours) comes in higher than expected (0.6%) then I can't see the kiwi dollar recovering much until after the next OCR announcement...more's the pity.

[stoploss]

Sorry folks - I never anticipated the very large (10.7%) drop last night in the global dairy trade price index.

Unless our QoQ CPI (to be announced in a couple of hours) comes in higher than expected (0.6%) then I can't see the kiwi dollar recovering much until after the next OCR announcement...more's the pity.

No need to apologise , from my reading you were/ are the only one on here Bullish on the Kiwi at the moment .

[winner69]

CPI only 0.4% and lower than expected

Yep Wheeler will succumb and 0.5% points cut next time and more to come. Banks will get their way

That won't be good for NZD

[Daytr]

Retail sales in the US were -0.3% & this is summer !
Yellen seems determined to raise rates as to not do so would knock confidence.
Kiwi yes softer, but I'm starting to wonder about the strength of the USD as well.
Interesting times.

[dingoNZ]

Thoughts on Yellens comments today? I suggest they are somewhat optimistic

[Valuegrowth]

My year end target for NZD was one NZD equals to 0.60 cents of USD. Now I believe it can reach 0.55 or below that level.We should see further weakness in NZD in 2016 and 2017 as well due to rising interest in the USA. 2017/18 should become very bullish period for USD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[winner69]

Westpac in their weekly review this week 'How low can you go' saying OCR 2.0% by year end .....and reading between the lines even lower next year.

Sudden change if views from Westpac - wonder what their motivation for being so bearish is?

Nzdusd at mid 50's?

Mind you they still forecasting GDP > 3% next year

[Valuegrowth]

We should see some weakness in both New Zealand and Australian economy in the coming years. Only way to have some growth is allowing their currencies to depreciate further. In addition, speculative hot money is also leaving commodity currencies. My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45 respectively against USD during the period from 2017/18. We should see gradual rising of interest rate in the USA from 2016 onwards.On top of that I believe in cycles in assets including currency cycle. I became bearish on currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD before others. These currencies went up rapidly against emerging and frontier market currencies as well during last couple of years. They are gradually going to adjust to the correct value.

After NZD, We could see down fall in Auckland housing market during next five years. Chinese slow down also will affect asset prices.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

[stoploss]

We should see some weakness in both New Zealand and Australian economy in the coming years. Only way to have some growth is allowing their currencies to depreciate further. In addition, speculative hot money is also leaving commodity currencies. My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45 respectively against USD during the period from 2017/18. We should see gradual rising of interest rate in the USA from 2016 onwards.On top of that I believe in cycles in assets including currency cycle. I became bearish on currencies such as NZD, AUD and CAD before others. These currencies went up rapidly against emerging and frontier market currencies as well during last couple of years. They are gradually going to adjust to the correct value.

After NZD, We could see down fall in Auckland housing market during next five years. Chinese slow down also will affect asset prices.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

Kiwi at 35 cents vs the USD, be some pretty cheap houses in Auckland for an offshore investor :)

[peat]

My year end target for NZD was one USD equals to 0.60 cents NZD.
lol

BULLISH!

[baller18]

lol 35 cents... yeh right... your housing bubble will definitely not come to fruition, as houses for offshore buyers will be damn cheap!

[peat]

My biggest worry is will NZD and AUD go below 0.35 and below 0.45

BEARISH

do you even know what you're saying?

[Valuegrowth]

lol

BULLISH!

Sorry Dear Peat

I made a mistake. Please see my new update.

My year end target for NZD was one NZD equals to 0.60 cents of USD. Now I believe it can reach 0.55 or below that level.We should see further weakness in NZD in 2016 and 2017 as well due to rising interest in the USA. 2017/18 should become very bullish period for USD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, property or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Pumice]

China PMI well below expectations. That'll take the AUS, NZD, commodities down with it.

[Pumice]

NZD breaks .6500
.6477 as I type. Strong downtrend continues.

[Daytr]

Huge jump in the dairy price overnight up a whopping 19%! Seems like a short covering rally when you get that sort of move.
I almost went long the Kiwi at 0.6520ish, but don't like trading against a trend.
In saying that I'm surprised the Kiwi didn't rally more after the dairy auction

[smpl]

62c. EURNZD moved almost 7.5% from 1.74 to 1.87.

Cool.

[Bobcat.]

I'm back in - long against both the USD, JPY and EUR. With US Equity market futures opening higher for tomorrow, anything under .645 NZD/USD, 76.25 NZD/JPY or over 1.80 EUR/NZD is fine with me.

Also expecting a bounce for both the AUD and CAD against most other currencies (CAD of course has followed the price of oil). As I write this the AUD is lifting against the USD but usually pivots more substantially closer to midday, and so I wait...

Today's (3pm) announcement on our inflation expectations may drag the NZD a bit - we'll see.

[peat]

I'm back in - long against both the USD, JPY and EUR.
its looks like all the markets experienced a bit of a flash crash last night - I'm seeing all massive hammers , with huge ranges on some platforms (500 pips)and merely quite large (200) in others. hammers are usually bullish, but certainly not always, and ideally entry points are at the lower range of the tail.

[Pumice]

I'm looking at the daily chart BC (as shown). and just NZD/USD as the thread is titled.

Thanks for the chart. I see what you are saying, but lets keep this friendly eh. we all have different time frames and TA.
I'm curious on your long target though. I cant tell if you are expecting 68 or 88.
I'm still targeting 63c in the medium term - i.e next 3-6 months. (just my "research")

Not far from .6300 currently .6332
Cant see this trend reversing anytime soon. GDT might help out if its another strong result (Think its out early tomorrow)

[Pumice]

NZD down to .6277
AUD down to .6900

Fairly decent drop to end the week.

[Entrep]

Wooooha - anyone know what's up with this pair lately? Is it the USD or NZD driving the massive moves?

[Valuegrowth]

Wooooha - anyone know what's up with this pair lately? Is it the USD or NZD driving the massive moves?

It is a very short term move. It has to go down further against USD in the coming years.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/12/is-the-rally-in-the-new-zealand-dollar-or-kiwi-getting-overripe.htm

Is the kiwi rally getting overripe?

DUOR

[Entrep]

Any thoughts how high NZD could go?

[macduffy]

Any thoughts how high NZD could go?

It seems to me to be anyone's guess. The other question to ask is "How high - or low - could the USD go?"

:ohmy:

[peat]

its looks like all the markets experienced a bit of a flash crash last night - I'm seeing all massive hammers , with huge ranges on some platforms (500 pips)and merely quite large (200) in others. hammers are usually bullish, but certainly not always, and ideally entry points are at the lower range of the tail.
quoting myself from late August last year above.

8004
So far, that has been the low point and even gave us the clue by doing a bullish gartley during the following five months
though the follow on from that has been erratic it has stayed upward overall, and climbed 500 pips.
its hard to see but there was even a good hammer at the end of the gartley. (Jan 21)

I got stopped last night tho dam and buggeration
8005
:mad ;: :cursing::mad ;::cursing: :mad ;::cursing: :mad ;::cursing: :mad ;::cursing:




:cool::D

[Entrep]

NZD is going vertical vs the USD. Crazy times for forex traders.

[kiora]

NZD is going vertical vs the USD. Crazy times for forex traders.

Painful for a lot of exporters :eek2:

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-dollar-swaps-tumble-brexit-confounds-pollsters-central-banks-likely-act-b-190820

NZ dollar, swaps tumble as Brexit confounds pollsters; central banks likely to act

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11678482

NZ dollar falls ahead of RBNZ economic assessment

[Mush]

FX traders had their crystal ball out this morning it seems, correctly predicting the 0.2% inflation number 20 seconds or so before the data release (market expecting 0.0%). How efficient.

8372

Smashed through the topside resistance of 0.7150, should be interesting to see how this trades over 24 hours with a Dairy auction overnight with futures indicating a lift in prices (on reduce volume) which should see the kiwi well bid.

[Valuegrowth]

In the short run we should see some volatility. The U.S. dollar rose to fresh highs against the euro and a broad range of currencies including China’s Yuan on Friday. As I said before I expect bigger fall in NZ dollar in 2017/18 against not only USD but also against basket of currencies.

The NZD gave up its gains against the USD in the past few trading sessions, losing 0.3%.

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-bearish-on-a-close-below-07180-uob-201611111230

NZD/USD bearish on a close below 0.7180 – UOB

[Entrep]

NZD is on an absolute tear... Looks like nothing can stop it. Can any one see the USD strengthening later this year?

[brettdale]

Opps, just posted a new threead, should've posted this question here, Would a Labour Government mean a fall in the NZ Dollar?

[peat]

Opps, just posted a new threead, should've posted this question here, Would a Labour Government mean a fall in the NZ Dollar?

looks very much like it
H+S broken ...>>>.68

[FXTrader]

I agree Peat, it was a classic head & shoulders with a neckline around ,7200-25 depending upon where you want to draw it - now well broken, and it it can hold below those levels early next week, the measuring objective for the weakness is around 0.6850. It may takes weeks or months, but that's where it should be headed - whats the investment play is the question?

[peat]

I agree Peat, .... whats the investment play is the question?
ah yes the strategy
well I am short already medium size, will add again several times as it approaches 74 , become nervous after a clean break above 74 , and then look to exit
I tend to scale in an out these days , not looking so much for the killer single entry

[Xerof]

looks very much like it
H+S broken ...>>>.68

Yes peat, I was reviewing a few charts and was going to post on the H&S - perfectly formed (like my wife). Should, in theory, progress to under .69. Appears to be kiwi specific as NZDAUD also falling

[peat]

Appears to be kiwi specific as AUDNZD also falling
au contraire AUD/NZD rising. as is my account balance from that.

[Xerof]

Thats wot I ment:confused:

[peat]

1st September
H+S broken ...>>>.68

KAboom

68.25 now.

[roddy]

Kaboom nice Peat

[Absolute144]

jacindas pregnant. will this weigh on the nzd?

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/8792-us-dollar-to-rise-over-next-three-months-as-volatility-thickens-says-td-securities

The Dollar is being tipped to rise in Q2 especially against AUD, CAD and NZD

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/nzd/9145-new-zealand-dollar-to-rise-further-over-coming-weeks-say-cba-as-strategists-label-kiwi-a-buy

New Zealand Dollar to Rise over Coming Weeks

[777]

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/8792-us-dollar-to-rise-over-next-three-months-as-volatility-thickens-says-td-securities

The Dollar is being tipped to rise in Q2 especially against AUD, CAD and NZD

Well that didn't happen.

[smpl]

NZD new LOW!

[winner69]

NZD new LOW!

Been much lower than this before

Fun times when it went down below us$0.40. ....2 or 3 recessions ago

[smpl]

Not since GFC.

Correct, there is still much room to go lower.

[SBQ]

Agree there's a lot more lower to go. My problem is the NZD will stay low for several years or decades. Despite the ups and down of the NZ currency in the past 20 years, the only relavant factor we should be considering is "has the standard of living in NZ improved?" My friend that works in liason with the NZ Gov't on foreign matters / internal affairs stats etc. insists people's standard of living in NZ has gone worse and worse each decade and that previous generations lived a better life. That is with this trend, next generation will not live as good as their parents and that's a real sad thing when places like the US have seen a 7 for 1 increase in standard of living in the past 80 years or so.

We have a globalist leader in the Labour Gov't party. She aligned her views to the Marxist views of the EU nations like Sweden and in process, introduced more regulations and taxes which pushes out development in the country. Even worse, scaring capital away from NZ (how else why is the NZD becoming weaker?). If we go to negative interest rates, watch out! Because the NZ business confidence index is at the pre GFC levels of 2008.

[Joshuatree]

I confess I dont know much about playing the currencies but we have exposure to $US ,$A and kiwi. Keep hearing $US is a good place to park $but the Fed is going to drop rates (and we are too ?) so maybe having a spread of currencies is a little protection in the volatility ahead but overall close to neutral.

[SBQ]

I confess I dont know much about playing the currencies but we have exposure to $US ,$A and kiwi. Keep hearing $US is a good place to park $but the Fed is going to drop rates (and we are too ?) so maybe having a spread of currencies is a little protection in the volatility ahead but overall close to neutral.

Unfortunately it doesn't quite work that way. In times of uncertainty the reason why currencies flee to USD is due to stability (as the US is the largest economy in the world, it makes sense to keep the assets in USD). When you price assets like crude oil, gold, silver, etc. they're all denominated in USD. So to the person that wants to avoid currency risk exposure to say buying gold, they need the USD. Both Canada and NZ hold NO gold reserves, that is the central bank holds no physical gold whatsoever and is not in the market to buying and selling like we see other countries do (ie Russia and China buying gold)... and because NZ holds no gold reserve, the NZD currency is 100% reliant on it's fiat value.

This COVID19 is a killer for the NZ economy. If China stops buying our natural resources, our diary and meats, and more recently with immediate effects, no Chinese tourists and students coming to NZ; then i'm afraid the NZ '1 trick card country' is going to be exposed to a lot of downturn in the economy. The simple thing is just follow what Jacinda Ardern is doing. How can you continue to increase funding to beneficiaries, teachers, doctors and nurses, IRD workers, etc.. when the IRD tax take is diminishing? The simple answer is 'We will BORROW the FUNDS!' because when the NZ Reserve Bank lowers interest, you're going to see a double end sword. On the gov't borrowing front, foreign lenders would expect a higher interest payment due to NZ's increase risk (state of the economy), and on the domestic front, NZ capital will move abroad (mostly to the US) to seek safer return on investment.

On my ticker i'm seeing NZD/USD at 0.6226

[Joshuatree]

Great, many thanks SBQ, that's increasing my simplistic view and reassuring in this fast evolving situation and a dilemma for our economy!
Any other thoughts appreciated too. How about some Yen for example?

[SBQ]

Great, many thanks SBQ, that's increasing my simplistic view and reassuring in this fast evolving situation and a dilemma for our economy!
Any other thoughts appreciated too. How about some Yen for example?

Japanese Yen? Again not a chance as Japan ranks #1 in highest debt to GDP of some +200%. If people complain about the US debt being so big with a debt to GDP ratio of around 100%, it is truly incomparable to Japan's level of debt. They have a real systematic problem because their debt is so high, many many future generations in Japan are forced to work longer hours. Well just look at how they live ; one would say they have a very high standard of living... but the people there are working like robots. Children doing 6 days a week for school, people working 60+ hrs a week as the normal to get into owning a house.. etc. Because of this inherit 'culture', lenders view Japan as being sustainable for the country to hold such high debt. Oh and Japan's 10 year gov't bond is like 0.3% vs the US 10Y bond over 1%. This mis-pricing could be the market has got it wrong in Japan ie we have 2 separate markets (investors for Japan and investors for the rest of the world). Kinda like what's going on in NZ with the way NZ's taxation has been structured to deter foreign investment while trying to persuade NZ capital to stay in NZ investments.

[SBQ]

What did I say? The NZ Kiwi under $0.60 USD to $1NZD today. I don't think people realise the impact of COVID19 has to the NZ economy. We're talking mass layoffs.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freefalling-australian-zealand-dollars-look-044814503.html

[blackcap]

Surprised no one talking about this one today. NZD to USD is now at .5490. Seems there is a run on NZ govt bonds.....

[SBQ]

Surprised no one talking about this one today. NZD to USD is now at .5490. Seems there is a run on NZ govt bonds.....

That's because most NZ investors don't understand the economics of how gov't fiscal & monetary policies impact the NZ currency exchange rate. Unlike the USA, NZ is not in a position that it can just simply print money out of thin air. The announcements of splashing out billions to save NZ businesses comes at a cost. When the NZ Reserve Bank rate is near 0%, it doesn't matter what they do because internationally, they're not going to lend ; there are none because they've already fled to the USD. No one is standing in line when NZ bonds go up for offer. The next step will be negative interest rates where the public's cash deposits will go to service the gov't, similar to a tax grab (theft from the people who have cash). To those owning real estate will be hit in this process as jobs are lost and housing prices will collapse.

The USD is the world currency. When a person puts up their $ either to lend out or invest in US equities, they are basically saying they're betting on the American economy to recover and do better than any other country. That same person also could of lend the $ to NZ in NZ currency but that's like comparing the reliability of a car between a Toyota and a Volvo. The financial markets think the same, when huge capital outflows occur, our NZD gets weaker. When the NZ gov't goes on a printing / borrowing scheme.. again it will weaken the NZD because someone has to pay for it at then. Either in inflation or the slow erosion of standard of living. Now i'm not speaking of a mass exodus of people living NZ - we've seen this kind of thing before from wars and developing nations that have no fiscal or monetary controls. But to say that NZ is still the 'land of the milk & honey' is not even close to reality.

[TeslaGod]

Any talk from the RBNZ raising the OCR and I'm planning on shorting the crap out of the NZD

[Entrep]

Any talk from the RBNZ raising the OCR and I'm planning on shorting the crap out of the NZD

Can you elaborate why you're med-long term bearish on NZD?

[TeslaGod]

Can you elaborate why you're med-long term bearish on NZD?
Seeing signs of deflation beginning with lumber prices crashing.
If OCR head's up and we pull the trigger too early we're going to have an over valued kiwi.
About spring deflation signs should become more apparent

[stoploss]

Seeing signs of deflation beginning with lumber prices crashing.
If OCR head's up and we pull the trigger too early we're going to have an over valued kiwi.
About spring deflation signs should become more apparent

The cost of labour has gone up massively , Petrol prices are up so that might balance out the lumber ... but not the labour, or 13 % Rate hike , 10 % insurance hike ...it goes on ....

[TeslaGod]

Any talk from the RBNZ raising the OCR and I'm planning on shorting the crap out of the NZD

Well I guess the RBNZ agreed with me no shorting the kiwi for now!

[Entrep]

I bought a good chunk of NZD this morning, now looking for somewhere to park it.