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arco
17-03-2004, 11:24 AM
One of my systems has triggered a
possible long on the Nzd.Usd.
I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
however there is often a decent day trade
available from this signal.

Please note. My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The system I have detailed above could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow this system be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk and that I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred.

arco
19-03-2004, 11:39 AM
Update.
Nice rise already on this one so far since inception 17/3
and has been up as high as .6612 from open @ .6507

In these situations IMO its always good to take 100 points
profit on 50% of the position and let the balance ride
with a trailing stop.

arco
23-03-2004, 11:10 AM
2 more signals have triggered long overnight
with close being at .6606 after high of .6646
(Trade opened @ .6507)

arco
26-03-2004, 11:55 AM
Signals can sometimes be wrong, so as I have said before,
IMO its sensible to take 100 pips profit on 50% of the
position and let the balance ride with a trailing stop.

Stop was hit yesterday on the balance (at entry price),
but at least the 100 pips taken earlier is safely in
the bag.

First day signal has now triggerd short.
I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
however there is often a decent day trade
available from this signal.

arco
01-04-2004, 10:34 AM
3 signals now giving long

arco
14-04-2004, 03:10 PM
Long stopped 2/4 for a loss of 92 pips.

arco
07-05-2004, 11:54 AM
Looks like NZD might be about to embark on down leg 5 of the 'c' wave corrective pattern.
Possible support area shown on chart.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/050604B.gif

arco
11-05-2004, 08:36 AM
Up to close there was a gain of 269 pips in
2 days (maximum available 285 pips).

The current candle is just above the
support area noted on the recent
chart posted, and so this position
needs to be monitored carefully in
order to maximise profits.

arco
12-05-2004, 12:40 PM
There is now Tweezer Bottom on the support
area mentioned and therfore we can
expect some uplift at least shorterm.

arco
14-05-2004, 09:05 AM
Short term uplift is over. Look for the fall
to continue now.
Perhaps around May 24-28 may give a clue to the next move.

arco
24-02-2005, 10:48 AM
My Reuters EOD chart prints a Bullish Engulfing (bouncing off the 7324 Octave which appears to have possible resistance). Oanda chart looks currently like an Evening Star. Both bearish signs to be aware of.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd_0202205.gif

zyreon
24-02-2005, 02:42 PM
hmm i can get put options for up to 6 months... but then even out of the money they cost like at least 2 cent/unit e.g. 73 cents = 3.5cent

i think with terms like that you'd be better off just going short with a wide stop

arco
08-03-2005, 11:48 AM
Reversal is pretty close IMO

zyreon
09-03-2005, 10:16 AM
why you think that?

arco
09-03-2005, 12:04 PM
I'm feeling psychic ;)

Scaling in a few shorts circa 7385-7446,
with a very tight stop.

Trying to pick tops is a high risk strategy
- but not quite as bad as picking bottoms.

Alternative strategy for wimps.
Trail a limit order using CBL3.

zyreon
09-03-2005, 12:22 PM
using your intuition? ;)

fair enough, i think if RBNZ doesn't do anything then it could drop due to present discounting of presumed .25 increase in OCR.

though using that reasoning would be gambling on RBNZ action.

arco
09-03-2005, 01:32 PM
zyreon

It was actually more TA than intuition
- a combination of EW, Fib, etc, etc.

I rarely consider the fundimentals,
- its all in the charts.

Watch out for butterflies.....

arco
10-03-2005, 07:29 AM
Current action look like printing an Evening Star derivative (Bearish Engulf) pattern, and my scaled in shorts circa 7385 are not looking too shabby.

If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due. At some point it has to happen.

Nurg
11-03-2005, 06:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.

Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

Xerof
11-03-2005, 06:37 PM
We may be seeing an extended 5th wave, target circa 76/77 before we head lower, although the bearish divergence on the monthly RSI serves notice that a turn could happen at any moment. I will be looking to sell around those levels, which I think should be seen later this month. This should also coincide with another topping out for the Euro circa 1.3660 but thats another story.

Remember that a lot (but not all) of the NZD strength is actually USD weakness. The balance of strength, which can be seen as outperformance on other cross rates, relates to carry-trade/high yielder demand from the hedge fund/
CTA/real-money types.

When these guys head for the exits, we'll see the usual carnage.....this may be triggered by a sharp increase in risk aversion, which may in turn be triggered by either a share market collapse and/or sharp sell-off in Treasuries. (or perhaps the perfect storm - both at once![:0][:0])

Xerof
11-03-2005, 06:40 PM
Yes 5906 in May 2004 was end of wave 4


quote:Originally posted by Nurg


quote:Originally posted by arco


If this is the end of the 5th wave then a larger ABC correction would be due.

Where did this 5th start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

miner
11-03-2005, 10:44 PM
"Trade with an empty mind --- think about it!"

With a CD on:D;).

Cheers
Miner

arco
12-03-2005, 09:33 AM
Nurg


quote:Where did this 5th (wave) start? At around 59c in the middle of 2004 or more recent?

Confirming Xerofs thoughts - IMO it may be the 5th wave lower degree of a 5th wave ending diagonal, with the whole move starting in May 2004. (After the ABC correction).

It is also interesting to note there is a Cup and Handle target in the vicinity - circa 7442.

Xerof - I posted a divergence chart earlier in the thread on 24/2. You also made some excellent fundamental points.

I trust both of you will continue to post on the Forex threads.

arco

Xerof
14-03-2005, 05:15 PM
Arco,

will endeavour to keep you company in the forex arena - looks like you've been flying solo for some time!

Xerof

Xerof
17-03-2005, 09:28 PM
Lot of unwinding of short EUR vs emerging markets in the past week - first sign of risk aversion? - which may carry over into the other high yielders if it gets serious...just a thought...


Xerof

arco
18-03-2005, 11:46 AM
From ANZ FX dealer Alex Sinton.

NZD/USD correction likely over in the next couple of weeks due to a few concerns on the horizon.

NZD, AUD have run up recently along with commodities index, expect some profit-taking from that; also NZ 4Q GDP due Thursday, which tipped to show slowing growth; US Fed Reserve looks set to raise rates next week ahead of Easter long weekend, could see NZD/USD fall to 0.7270, which was December high for Kiwi, and about a 38.2% retracement of recent move up from early February.

Alex - wasnt I saying start scaling in shorts 2 weeks ago ? ;)
.........Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185 area has my attention presently.

zyreon
20-03-2005, 06:45 PM
fiddy pips on (NZ)wednesday on the short side i reckon

FOMC announcement expected (US)Tuesday 22, 2:15 ET consensus is .25 increase

Xerof
21-03-2005, 03:26 PM
.25% is fully priced in already - mkt looks like it might want to price in a risk of 50 looking at early action today. Not bad moves at all for a Monday, esp with Tokyo out, and its USD buying across the board

Just about had your fifty pips today already, Zyreon, trouble is the dips keep coming from ever higher levels.....prefer to wait for a set above 77 cents, for 1000 to 1500 pips (or stop entry under 7150, for broadly same return)

That ol' saying: buy dollars, wear diamonds is being rehe****d by the fat lady but not quite ready yet to hit the stage for the live performance IMO !

Xerof
21-03-2005, 03:29 PM
Hmmm, phonetically speaking, "rehurse" has that ass word in it, so gets the old **** inserted by the censors- I learn something new every day

arco
24-03-2005, 08:58 AM
quote:18/3 -
Still short 7446/7385 and 7127-7185
area has my attention presently.

NZD tumbling nicely and those shorts at
7385/7446 are looking mighty fine.
Gives a max profit of 302 pips.

Current low in the last 4 hrs......7144

Xerof
24-03-2005, 09:44 AM
Yes, well done Arco, faded in nicely. Thinking top is "in" now at .7463, and in sell rally mode from here.

Greenspan sang on behalf of the fat lady yesterday, and his cunningly sculptured wording re inflation will hammer home the USD advantage over the next little while.

As I said a few days ago somewhere else on this site, once the carry trades start unwinding, it'll be carnage city for the Kiwi. I think a break below .7150 is confirmation enough that the rally has turned earlier than (some) expected.

Would be interested to see your chart updated - must have confirmed your bearish gartley. EUR will be the same I suspect (I have faded shorts in EUR from last week thankfully, but thinking the KIWI shorts will get more bang for your buck, as there will be a lot of cross selling of Kiwi,AUD, etc agst majors as well, not just USD


regards

Xerof

miner
24-03-2005, 09:48 AM
Yep good call Arco,so you guys still looking long USD?.

Cheers
Miner

zyreon
24-03-2005, 10:42 AM
US interest rates rising, NZ interest rates stalling.... differential converging. bearish?

NZ GDP growth slowing. bearish?

NZ current account deficit widening. bearish?

Tightening monetary policy. bearish?

arco
24-03-2005, 11:09 AM
Short term we could see a minor retracement
soon. The uptrend line + fibs are close by.
But once NZD breaks the line......watch out below.

IMO look for a minor reversal around 7141
down to 7080. (To complete EW 3 perhaps).

Miner....all signs appear that way presently.

Xerof...you will find more of my charts at
Tacticaltrader.com - Cable thread may be of
interest to you.
(There is no uploading device on ST, which
complicates posting images).

Xerof
24-03-2005, 11:21 AM
All of the above are fairly clearly in play - the only other key driver has been the strong rise in commodities, and although we have seen some weakness of late, I'm not at all CERTAIN that we are going to see a collapse in the CRB index. Does anyone have a chart of the CRB? (I have just given my Reuters service back, so am missing my fav charts at the moment)

IMO, the USD has gained the upper hand in the short term, and we should now see a cleanout of positioning, esp if hedge funds unwind their (very) long specs in commodities, spread trades, and carry trades aggressively. So maybe we see a 2 or 3 Q rally for the dollar, then back to weakness late this year/early next. To illustrate - EUR down to 1.15 area, then up to new highs, 1.45/1.50?

E&OE - as usual it won't be a straight line.....these markets tend to turn on a dime, as we saw Monday/Tuesday, so....

arco
24-03-2005, 11:39 AM
Xerof

Try here for CRB

http://tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RB

Arco

Xerof
24-03-2005, 12:10 PM
Thanks Arco - see you on the other side

Xerof

miner
24-03-2005, 07:12 PM
Thanks guys,dont watch NZD/USD usualy but EUR/USD same as yesterday today long off the 7am hourly,see if they nail it back the other way again tonight.

Cheers
Miner

zyreon
28-03-2005, 02:50 PM
dipping below 71 into 70 ....

Xerof
29-03-2005, 05:34 PM
Might just get another lick of the icecream here - sell at 7120, to be sure of a set, or .7180 if greedy and not entirely convinced:D:D

Xerof

E&OE as usual

arco
29-03-2005, 08:37 PM
Or maybe just trail a limit sell up from
the rear using a CBL or similar technique.

Xerof
04-04-2005, 04:54 PM
OK, enough dicking around with this consolidation rubbish - lets GO !! - 7000 by Friday - minimum, as a first stop

0.7090 currently

E&OE - DYOR

Xerof

arco
05-04-2005, 08:40 AM
Hi Xerof

The law of alternation is at work.

Eventually when 7080 can be broken
we should get our downside move.

Arco

Xerof
07-04-2005, 05:11 PM
Saw low .70's before bouncing nicely - like the AUD (see AUD.USD thread) should see a decent rally here to around 72 cents, from where the next decent sell off should commence

Xerof

Xerof
09-04-2005, 09:06 PM
Seeing the rally back up - possibility of getting back above 7200, maybe 7250 early this week, before it comes off hard


Xerof

Xerof
11-04-2005, 10:39 PM
Possible H&S forming on the Kiwi, with the Right shoulder coming in around the previously mentioned levels of 7250. Hmmm, I personally don't trust H&S too much. Think best idea is to have a 70 pip trailing stop entry, in case this thing just keeps going topside.

Given its a big data week for USD, (with early talk of a widening deficit again - no surprise there I guess), might pay to play it as suggested.

Read somewhere the USD index had a bearish engulfing candle late last week, and certainly todays early moves suggest that USD might correct lower still

regards

Xerof

Xerof
13-04-2005, 04:14 PM
This old bird has been solid as a rock lately, since testing that 70 cent level. Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario

Any firm views there ARCO, contrary or otherwise?

Xerof

Xerof
14-04-2005, 06:00 PM
very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.

Xerof

arco
14-04-2005, 08:43 PM
Xerof

I closed my short position a few days ago,
and will give you my current view tomorrow AM.

arco

arco
15-04-2005, 10:06 AM
Xerof

A Bearish Engulfing Pattern has emerged
overnight.

I calculate possible resistance as 7263
(or failing that 7324).

arco

Xerof
15-04-2005, 03:13 PM
quote:13/4/05 Still like it heading for mid/late 72's for a tentative sell, if you can trust H&S setups. Will stick with the trailing s/l sell entry scenario


quote:14/4/05 very early days, but price action today fits nicely with H&S expectations posted above - a top at .7265 so far today forming Right Shoulder. As I said don't entirely trust H&S formations but here's hoping this ones for real. May take a few days to see a decent result.

short 2 units at 7260, and one added at 7190. Stop if .7280 is bid at this stage. No downside target in mind at this point

Xerof

arco
15-04-2005, 04:38 PM
Sometimes there are just too many pairs with
nice looking Gann reversal points, etc.

The 7263 Gann resistance mentioned would have been the
perfect entry......Well done for getting on board Xerof.

I instead jumped aboard the plummeting EUR and
snaffled 80 pips overnight....

Good trading all

arco

Xerof
18-04-2005, 05:34 PM
Staying short, add another unit to the 3 already held if .7190/7200 seen this week.

That should be enough risk for this puppy, then sit back and wait, with S/L in place of course[8D][8D]

Confidence for a strong bearish decline confirmed by a break of .7015, the neckline of the H&S formation cited in earlier postings


Xerof

Xerof
20-04-2005, 07:45 AM
Added another unit last night at .7195. Now the full quota short. S/L if goes 7280 bid.



Xerof

arco
20-04-2005, 08:58 AM
Good Morning Xerof

Possible resistance circa 7202 broke with quite
a strong move negative US$ overnight.

Further resistance could be seen around 7263 with
major circa 7324 where various lines converge.

Oscillator has turned up positive off the centre line (zero).

However, you are obviously still feeling confident,
and sitting with a manageable position if 7280 happens
to fall.


arco

Xerof
20-04-2005, 09:23 AM
Arco,

just on the QT, I'm not that confident having seen the early morning price action, but will leave S/L unadjusted, as 7263 might be sufficient to contain again.

Xerof

arco
21-04-2005, 09:24 AM
Good Morning Xerof

With a high of 7292 around 6 a.m
I presume the SL was hit - unless
you deceided to move it higher?

arco

Xerof
21-04-2005, 10:17 AM
stopped out Arco - looks like it might have another half cent rally left in it before down, but still keen to be short so will run a trailing stop if/once it gets above 7320

regards

Xerof

Xerof
21-04-2005, 07:54 PM
resold late this afternoon, with a tight s/l just above 7310. Still believe its about to roll over, so have given it another go

Xerof

edit: if I get stopped again:(, will again resell at 7335;)

zyreon
21-04-2005, 08:03 PM
if RBNZ (as most people expect) keeps rates steady next thursday it could come down a little... so in the lead up to the announcement maybe there will be this pressure downwards due to "the market" pricing it in...

arco
22-04-2005, 10:00 AM
Xerof

Nice divergence on the ocsillator and that little run
North appears to just have been a test of polarity reversal.
(Positive becomes negative).

The top on NZD has also met the Cup and Handle target.

arco

Xerof
22-04-2005, 10:08 AM
excellent - so are you short now Arco?

Xerof
22-04-2005, 08:22 PM
stopped on a bulls**t run on stops above 73 to 7330 - lasted all of 1 minute before back below 73. Will reassess Monday.


Xerof

Xerof
25-04-2005, 01:25 PM
resold at .7319, will add at .7335, .7355 and S/L on the lot above .7380

zyreon
25-04-2005, 04:47 PM
interesting to see what will happen come thurs

just might join u there xerof...

arco
26-04-2005, 08:33 AM
Good Morning Xerof

Apologies for the delay in replying which was
due to being away over the holiday weekend.

Re NZD. No have not shorted yet, - will revue all
pairs this morning for opportunities.

GBP short position was left on over the w/e with
wide stop and is +45 currently.

arco

Xerof
26-04-2005, 04:33 PM
Got another unit of Kiwi out at .7335 Monday night (lucky I suspect, as was high bid on Saxo platform)

Need a break below 7260 to add confidence - hearing stops under 7260[:p][:p], but also buy stops above 7340[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

arco
27-04-2005, 08:37 AM
Xerof

All appears to be going well now.......are
you planning to hold these for the long term?

arco

Xerof
27-04-2005, 09:00 AM
If it can get through tomorrows event risk without too much of a bounce, will be trying to extract maximum value from this trade.

Would like to see AUD clearly break below 7770 as a backup to a general commodity bloc move. USD/CAD is looking supportive already, and a clear break below 7180 will confirm target of circa 67 cents IMO

Also shorted AUD at 7793 (missed your ideal resistance)

But early days...

cheers

Xerof

Xerof
28-04-2005, 09:45 AM
RBNZ delivered slightly more hawkish statement than expected, but bounce so far has been limited to the 7245 resistance area.

IMO a break above resistance at 7250 would lead to retest of last weeks highs, so have lowered stop on shorts to .7260 for today.

Elsewhere the USD is looking quite bid - note reaction to poor durable goods data saw kneejerk selloff, followed quickly by a turnaround, back to predata levels.

So Kiwi should take next direction from USD/majors from here, once the MPS impact moves into the background.

If we see another retest of the rising trendline off 7015 (currently at last nights low of 7195), then it should break through for a decent downside run

Xerof

arco
28-04-2005, 10:07 AM
Morning Xerof

7202 was an expected support level which
still needs to be broken.

Oscillator still above the zero.

Looking for circa 7263 to contain any upward move.

arco

Xerof
28-04-2005, 10:17 AM
Arco, have deferred to your excellent fine tuning skills and adjusted stop to 7265 !!

cheers

Xerof

arco
28-04-2005, 11:05 AM
Xerof

That figure is a minor Gann calc which fits in
nicely with the support area from 22nd April.
(i.e - Support can become resistance).

Are you managing the trade with a hard stop
or a mental stop ?

arco

Xerof
28-04-2005, 12:55 PM
Hard stop - discipline - cash management - live to sell again...etc etc

Xerof

Dazza
28-04-2005, 03:10 PM
ah i c whats wrong with the programe

on 17th march 2005, the highest price was 1.3480
thats why my graph looks weird wheneva i use a long term graph..

xerof/acro, does ur NZD/USD chart also have that price on 17th march?!

Xerof
28-04-2005, 03:18 PM
No, but I would have sold some there matey, if I'd seen it.:D:D:D

I presume you're talking about the graphs you're using on your platform. Send them an email and ask them to filter it out.

Xerof

arco
28-04-2005, 03:52 PM
My charts are showing a high of .7451 on 7/3

On some charting packages you can amend the days
figures yourself.

Let me know if you need OHLC.

arco

Xerof
28-04-2005, 07:25 PM
stopped shorts out at 7265 for +178 pips equivalent on 1 unit (held 2 units short at 7319 plus 1 unit short at 7335)

resold 2 units at 7285, with tight stop at 7310.


IMO, over 7330/40, then we head for new highs, but willing to give current structure a chance to evolve.


Xerof

zyreon
28-04-2005, 09:07 PM
3 may (tuesday next week..(wednesday NZ?))

FOMC statement

if they raise interest rates, cliterus paribus, the NZDUSD should fall... hmmmm

Dazza
28-04-2005, 09:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


My charts are showing a high of .7451 on 7/3

On some charting packages you can amend the days
figures yourself.

Let me know if you need OHLC.

arco


OHLC? explain?

Xerof
28-04-2005, 10:08 PM
Zyreon,


quote:if they raise interest rates, cliterus paribus, the NZDUSD should fall... hmmmm


the threat of another hike in NZ has clouded the issue in the short term, although I firmly believe Fed will hike at least another 5 or 6 times vs RBNZ's possible single hike - "cliterus (sic) paribus" - very good, so you're probably right.

In any event current EW structure is certainly quite bearish, until proven otherwise:D:D


Dazza, OHCL = Open/High/Low/Close

regards

Xerof

Xerof
29-04-2005, 11:30 AM
Taken Kiwi back at break-even. smell a rat here across the board

Anything in the tea leaves Arco?

Considering going long on a break of 7330 or short on a break of 7200

Xerof

arco
29-04-2005, 12:06 PM
Xerof

I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
7300-7324,so maybe they will hold.....Just maybe.

I say that because I have a concern with the
oscillator which is still on the positive side
of zero.

When in doubt - I stay out. There are better
fish to fry (or Butterflies to fly).

arco

slam
29-04-2005, 12:22 PM
Went short at .790;)
Looking at range, Target .720

See how wee go

Cheers
Slam

arco
29-04-2005, 12:28 PM
May the force be with you ;)

Xerof
29-04-2005, 12:54 PM
Arco, do you use standard oscillator set at 28,14 or have you found a better combo?

arco
29-04-2005, 01:45 PM
Xerof

My favourites are.....

RSI - default

QStick- 8 expo.

MacD - default

------

May I ask what signal are you using for entries?
You seem to be fairly accurate with those.

Regards
arco

Xerof
29-04-2005, 02:59 PM
Its the Xerof combo -

I subscribe to TRL, whom I used for many years in my past roles, and is excellent IMO and experience. He is a confirmed TA, and certainly surfs the waves but don't know exactly what other indicators he uses.

I use very simple EMA 10,20; macd - default and bollies - default on my own charts 2, 4 hours and daily, but am the first to admit to not being particularly savvy in this area at this stage and don't yet have a tested and successful combo

I also have contacts in most of the local banks to gain a feel for where stops/bids/offers are. This can sometimes be misleading as the big players just hit the market and don't leave orders. I also still get their commentaries daily, as well as a lot of their Group research papers etc

I have my own experiences to fall back on - gut feel - call it what you want - often just seeing the price action tells me intraday whats going to happen on the close here and into London. NYK is a stunning time zone for volatility, but we have to sleep sometime, so I don't get involved live there, but have found over the years that whatever London have done, NYK will do the opposite - about a 90% correlation on that.

All of the above into the melting pot and bombs away.

Finally, I follow hedge fund models/systems/signals and techniques as well


Xerof

Xerof
29-04-2005, 04:46 PM
Not waiting for a break of 7330, gone 1 unit long at .7290

USD looking very offered across the board

Xerof

arco
29-04-2005, 05:28 PM
Yes, something spooked the herd.

Good Luck with that long Xerof. I am remaining
flat.

Pleasantly pleased with the week overall.

Dazza
29-04-2005, 06:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco

Xerof

I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
7300-7324,so maybe they will hold.....Just maybe.

I say that because I have a concern with the
oscillator which is still on the positive side
of zero.

When in doubt - I stay out. There are better
fish to fry (or Butterflies to fly).

arco



arco, is ur triple resistent , at the 24/25th days?!

Dazza
29-04-2005, 10:13 PM
speaking about indicators
RSI - generally speaking going above the 20 mark = buy, going above 70/80 mark = sell

ive checked it out.... yet IMO i tink this indicator is the least useful of all at least in my experiences.

arco/xerof mind to share some previous dates where the RSI has been useful to reconfirm/confirm a sell/buy ?

MACD - i prefer using this, really good indicator IMO, u guys say default, is that meaning 12 26 9?

oscillator meaning PRICE OSCILLATOR? 28 and 14?

Xerof
30-04-2005, 11:54 AM
quote:Not waiting for a break of 7330, gone 1 unit long at .7290

squared at 7329, after failure to break above 7350

slam
02-05-2005, 11:11 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam

Went short at .790;)
Looking at range, Target .720

See how wee go

Cheers
Slam


Well was too soon with that one, but picked up some more to short at .7330, so back in black again.

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
03-05-2005, 08:31 AM
Dr Bollard seems intent on ensuring there's no ambiguity - this is aimed more at the interest rate markets, which are pricing in an easing as next move, but in terms of FX, those yield hungry cash 'n carry traders will be less worried about an imminent sell-off and might even be daring enough to take some more on


quote:3 May 2005

News Release

Reserve Bank reinforces last week's statement

Speech excerpt on monetary policy

From an address by
Dr Alan Bollard
Governor
Reserve Bank

As part of a presentation to a Masterton District Council Business Community Breakfast Meeting

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard today reinforced his statement of 28 April 2005 that economic data suggests that underlying demand and inflation pressures remain strong and that, in this environment, further policy tightening cannot be ruled out.

Dr Bollard was speaking to a Masterton District Council Business Community Breakfast Meeting.

"Last week I announced that the Official Cash rate (OCR) would remain at 6.75 per cent," Dr Bollard said. "But I reiterated our concerns about the persistence of inflation pressures in the economy, which are severely limiting our inflation headroom."

Dr Bollard said that over the coming weeks the Bank would be reviewing its forecasts in more detail, in particular to assess the strength of pipeline interest and exchange rate effects, household demand and ongoing labour market pressures.

"This assessment will be used to confirm whether further policy tightening is warranted at the June 2005 Monetary Policy Statement. Certainly, the current outlook offers no scope for an easing of policy in the foreseeable future."

arco
03-05-2005, 09:36 AM
The candles are showing an Harami (almost Cross)
just below the resistance areas I mentioned on Friday.


quote:I have triple convergent resistance areas circa
7300-7324,so maybe they will hold

I would ideally like to see the oscillator dip below the zero.

arco

Xerof
04-05-2005, 12:50 PM
I'm going to sell a couple of units at .7330 if seen on this run up. S/l above 7380

currently 7290

Xerof

changed level up 20 pips - looks like there might be another short squeeze later today

arco
04-05-2005, 03:29 PM
Oscillator now moved negative zero...expect minor test
to confirm change of polarity. Possible resistance remains
as stated.

No position currently.

Xerof
04-05-2005, 03:52 PM
Noted thanks Arco

Xerof
05-05-2005, 12:12 PM
I wimped out of doing 2 units - changed my trade to short 1 unit at .7335, which is now live. S/L still .7380

Xerof
05-05-2005, 07:43 PM
Arco, is there a bearish butterfly forming on the 4 hrly chart, or does the top formed on 30 April, being a smidgeon higher than the previous peak, negate such a formation. If it is forming a butterfly, right wing will have a way to go yet (unfortunately for my small short possie)


TIA

Xerof

arco
06-05-2005, 10:23 AM
Good Morning Xerof

There is certainly a Butterfly on the 3 hour (and
a possible Gartley on the daily). I would class the
start point on the 3 hour as the 29th April high.
It's not absolutely perfect, but still looks reasonable.

Yesterdays long legged Doji shows indecision, but
the oscillator has slliped back zero positive.
So hard to be 100% sure of the next move at the moment.

Did your SL get taken out or not?

arco

Xerof
06-05-2005, 10:40 AM
Thanks, Hmmm, I can't get 3 hr charts - any links to suggest?

Without the benefit of a 3 hr chart, are you saying the right wing is in place already, or is last nights high just the LHS of the formation (in which case I should buy back on any dip to 7300ish I suspect)

No, the high was .7378 paid (ANZ, WPAC), .7375 highest bid (Saxo)

TIA

Xerof

arco
06-05-2005, 10:51 AM
Xerof

You could always open a demo account with Oanda.
The charts are fairly basic, but you will be able to get
3 hour (although there are no 15 minute charts available).

Right wing could be in place based on Fibonacchi
projections. This is a bearish pattern, so I would
be selling a break of a recent pivot, trailing a
short up behind, or whatever technique takes your fancy.

arco

Xerof
06-05-2005, 11:43 AM
OK thanks - BTW I had a sell order last night at 7378, but not filled - see highest bid comment above....but did get some GBP out at 1.9065 earlier today on that inexplicable brief spike

Sold GBPUSD 1.9065 09-May-05 05-May-05 20:56:10

can't seem to be able to post an image off my trade station, but thats off Saxobank.

Don't like to talk about deals done in hindsight without backing it up with evidence

Xerof

arco
06-05-2005, 12:32 PM
Xerof

Similar here, I had a cheeky short on GBP placed at 9085...
didnt quite get touched unfortunately. (9078 was highest[V])

........now if that had been a SL it would have spiked
and grabbed it....but thats sods law, (or stop hunting!).

Images you will have to grab a screen shot
(unless you can get a web address off the properties box).

A good program I use is Screen Print Gold (free
for personal use...make sure you check the personal use box).
You can then place your image on a 'image host' or post it to
TT as I mostly do. (ST does not have an image uplifter).

If you need more help with that, let me know.

arco

peat
06-05-2005, 12:38 PM
cant you just hit Alt/Printscreen and then paste into any application eg WORD and get a picture??

Xerof
06-05-2005, 12:52 PM
Arco and Peat, hi peat good to see you back - do you only trade the first Friday of each month, you volatilty junkie you :D


working on both suggestions right now

peat
06-05-2005, 01:05 PM
no Xerof - I trade Eur/USD all the time - (just a few 10k positions open at any one time - so its pretty miniscule stuff ) but keep forgetting to check this forum out coz I'm mostly on the global-view one. And in the past this one has been pretty quiet.
And I dont have much to say really coz I dont know as much about it as you guys.
Its great to see that your presence has boosted activity here tho.

Kiwi still trying to fly huh. Wont it ever learn?

arco
06-05-2005, 02:27 PM
Xerof

I really think one needs to be on broadband with
access to Bloomberg to trade the news release in
real time and benefit from NFP.

I'm not that desperate to be up at 8.30am EST
and so if I have any positions open I usually
tighten stops in case things go the wrong way.

arco

Xerof
06-05-2005, 02:28 PM
Of course Peat, only pulling your leg.

your alt+print works OK but I can't crop enough out in order to not display the entire family jewels (and in any event can't upload to ST anyway)

Got that download Arco, do you have to reload it each month? I seem to have been directed to the platinum version and irrespective of what one does its only a 1 month trial. But anyway, will have a play

Peat, when the Kiwi eventually realises it can't fly, gravity should have the appropriate impact, i.e terminal velocity, but not sure its ready for that just yet

Xerof

arco
06-05-2005, 03:16 PM
Xerof

The Platinum special ediation works for one month, after that
the Gold is totally free until your hard drive crashes.

At that time, game over, re-apply. ;)

There is also a nice little image editor with the program.
After that, save file and manipulate in 'Paint' or other
paint programme. Easy as ABC.

Have fun..

arco

arco
10-05-2005, 04:03 PM
Not sure if this can affect the NZD?

May 10, 2005

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is investigating a claim that there has been a deliberate release of the foot and mouth virus on Waiheke Island in the Hauraki Gulf.

Biosecurity director Barry O'Neill says the claim, which was made in a letter to the Prime Minister's office on Tuesday morning, is probably a hoax but is being taken very seriously.

MAF has activated its disease management response systems.

A controlled area notice has been issued which restricts the movement of livestock and risk material on and from Waiheke Island while the investigation is underway.

There are no restrictions on people travelling to or from Waiheke Island. A police inquiry into the origin of the letter has been launched.

http://tvnz.co.nz/view/news_national_story_skin/544522%3fformat=html

Xerof
10-05-2005, 04:18 PM
Hmmm, that possibly explains the sudden dump from 7320

In my experience, and I was very close to it in my past life, any rumours about farms being isolated have always caused a rapid sell-off, until proven otherwise. Obviously an outbreak of F&M is an absolute disaster for the NZ economy, as the CjD story a year or so ago now could have been. This one is slightly different, being a letter to Helen, and smacks of being a hoax. But you never know, terrorism takes unusual forms.

IMO a confirmed outbreak would take 20 to 30 cents off the Kiwi inside a day, with almost no recovery until its cleared.

I'll stay short....ahem

Xerof

peat
10-05-2005, 06:22 PM
yeh its been huge topic of conversation on the gv forum. but seems like its a hoax. Hope so - dont wanna miss out on Waiheke wines

lakedaemonian
11-05-2005, 09:24 AM
Howdy folks!

I've been lurking this forum for a little while with great interest as it's the only forum I've found with New Zealand resident currency traders.

First I'll tell a little bit about myself.

I'm located in Christchurch, I'm self-employed, and I'm fortunate enough to have quite a bit of free time to dedicate to my new "hobby".

After several months of demo account trading with several companies I opened a small "for real" account with Oanda in January.

The good news is I'm up 125+% on my account to date.

The bad news is I probably only have enough experience and understanding of currency trading to be highly dangerous. :D

If I could best describe how I trade it would be short-term trading in the direction of long-term fundamentals.

The five currency pairs I monitor are:

NZD/US
EUR/US
GBP/US
JPY/US
CAD/US

I currently have an NZ Dollar short at .7313 "working without a net".

Which brings about one of my bigest concerns:

I "work without a net", meaning no Stop-Loss, for two reasons:

1.) I'm not comfortable in my applying the tool appropriately

2.) If I trade the "right side" of a long-term trend it will eventually come right if I go into the red....or so my thinking goes.

I'm keen to learn about technical analysis, and would be keen to join any currency trading clubs or possibly sign up for currency related training if any such things are available in the Christchurch area.

Thanks in advance for your time and best of luck trading.

arco
11-05-2005, 10:16 AM
Welcome Lakedaemonian.

Your input/ideas will be gladly received.

125% - you are certainly doing very well. Congratulations.

You say you are working "in the direction of long-term
fundamentals". On what information are you basing your
longer term trades ?

Regards
arco

lakedaemonian
11-05-2005, 02:04 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Welcome Lakedaemonian.

Your input/ideas will be gladly received.

125% - you are certainly doing very well. Congratulations.

You say you are working "in the direction of long-term
fundamentals". On what information are you basing your
longer term trades ?

Regards
arco







Hi Arco.....thanks for the welcome.

My business interests include import/export(mostly import), so I'm acutely aware of relative pricing differentials between certain currency pairs(particularly NZ related) for various goods. This has led to my interest in FOREX trading

The "fundamentals"(if that's what they really are) I tend to go with are as follows:

Big Mac Economist Index(and other identical consumer commodity prices)
Durable goods price differentials(big one for me)
Relative real estate price differentials(harder to judge...but I THINK it can be of value)
Interest rates
Trade surplus/deficits
Immigration figures(I think they are of value when considering the NZ dollar...in my opinion I think they could be inversely proportional)
Defense spending(minor one, but worth considering high US spending versus low NZ spending as % of GDP)
Averaging out currency "fair value" opinions(big one for me)
Relative tax and tariff policies
Central Bank decisions
Historical currency pair performance(big one for me)

BASICALLY everything I can possibly absorb about a particular nation's economy and currency, but throwing out what I fail to understand.

It seems to be working so far......but 4 months is hardly an adequate sample size...we'll see how it goes!

That's why I'm keen to learn more about technical analysis.....if I can get "the stars to align" maybe by using both my trading confidence will rise and hopefully reduce my risk a bit.

We shall see

Xerof
11-05-2005, 03:33 PM
Hi Lake....can we call you Ian? welcome aboard the forex express.

Those are certainly 'big picture' fundamental elements to be using for shorter term trading, but seems to have worked for you so far.

you'll find useful tips on TA at www.tacticaltrader.com and there are plenty of leads on www.fxstreet.com

Unfortunately, there's almost too much out there, especially on the net.

Perhaps you could invest some of those returns and buy a decent book on the subject. Arco, maybe you could recommend one or two from your collection?

cheers

Xerof

arco
11-05-2005, 03:50 PM
Xerof/LDM

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy

arco

lakedaemonian
11-05-2005, 09:23 PM
Thanks for the advice, I'll check the Christchurch library for it..barring that.....I'll pry open the wallet

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:19 AM
Yes thanks Arco, I have bitten the bullet and ordered that book. I do need to sharpen up on TA...

I added to my short NZD position at .7335, with another unit at .7308 last night (then saw it promptly move to 7340...)

Will add another unit on a break of 7260 (or MAY add on a rally back to 7290)

Everything looks heavy agst USD yeah? possible exception GBP which looks a bit oversold right here

Xerof

arco
12-05-2005, 11:59 AM
Xerof

I entered a large short position overnight at 7303
Currently + 35

LDI
Check it out at the library if you are able, but
you will need to buy it and refer often. Check
the web for a good discount - Amazon maybe.

arco

Xerof
12-05-2005, 12:03 PM
Arco, I like it when I've got good company:):)

LDI, US50.40 plus freight from amazon.com.

Buy it quickly, before the Kiwi drops out of bed :D:D

lakedaemonian
12-05-2005, 12:50 PM
Just got out at .7266 for +47 on the dip.

It was a "large" position, relatively speaking, for my wee account :D

Hopefully, I'm not being too quick to take the money off the table(which from what I've read is a common rookie mistake).

I've reserved An introduction to foreign exchange & money markets. from Christchurch Library;

AND I've creaked open the wallet and blown the dust off the credit card for:

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications by John J. Murphy

as suggested...thanks again.

Xerof
12-05-2005, 01:14 PM
Having rid your wallet of the moths, once you get into the book, you'll be able to replace them with butterflies LDI;);)

Xerof
12-05-2005, 01:16 PM
Nothing wrong with money in the till.

I've just added another unit to my short at 7255

Xerof

Xerof
12-05-2005, 01:27 PM
quote:NZ'S FINMIN SAYS EXPECTS NZD TO RETURN TO HISTORIC POST-FLOAT AVERAGE

anyone worked it out yet?

circa 55 cents I would guess

So Arco, we have good company - Michael is short too!

arco
12-05-2005, 02:51 PM
Xerof

A 50 % retrace of the long up-move would take NZD
to 5689, and a 38% retrace to 6106.

http://futures.fxstreet.com/images/figure2.gif

A swarm of Butterflies indicate initial targets
over-lapping between 6550 and 6900. So these may
be the medium term regions to watch.

Clearly there could be a long way to go if this is
the case.

arco

Xerof
12-05-2005, 06:54 PM
Sold again at 7231.....

slam
12-05-2005, 10:10 PM
couple of good calls there Xerof

arco
13-05-2005, 10:02 AM
This is the trade we have been waiting for.
The signs were showing (previously mentioned)
and now the worm has finally turned.

Ticking away nicely +142

Trailing stop.

slam
13-05-2005, 11:35 AM
If you don't mind me asking, what depth do you guys run your trailing stops at?
I ran at 50 the other night and got taken out on several pairs when they bounced. (volatile night though)
tia
Slam

peat
13-05-2005, 11:53 AM
yeh good question slam. I'm very interested in Arco's answer, hes obviously had a lot of success with his trailing stops in the past.
As I commented recently I'm just putting them in at something like 150-200 out of the money only when I leave the screen - only to prevent catastrophe not to establish a risk/reward ratio.

arco
13-05-2005, 12:20 PM
Slam/Peat

Stop ranges can vary depending on your time scale, and whether
you are a short/long term trader. That you will need to decide
independantly. Xerof has mentioned the FIB 50 idea, and the
2% money management rule.

There are many indicators that can be used as a stop,
and using a combination is advisable.

These are the SL techniques I use.

Last Pivot. (see site below)
Moving average.
Candle Reversal Pattern.
Chuck Le Beau's Chandelier.
CBL 3 or 4. Tighten as trade progresses/faulters 4-3-2
Fibonacchi Retracement 50-618. (As mentioned by Xerof)
Gann Support/resistance.
Gut feeling.

As a start, I suggest you experiment with some of the
SL techniques discussed here.

http://www.thepitmaster.com/tricks/stoploss.htm

Trust that will be helpful.

Good trading.

arco

Xerof
13-05-2005, 12:48 PM
Speaking of Fib retracements, .7153 is 61.8% of the .7015 to 7378 rally, so it might be a bit sticky here, .7100 is 76.4%.

Momentum seems strong enough though for it to test 100%, which is of course .7015

Hmmm, Friday with no US data, maybe thats enough for the week - just a thought. Next week will determine validity of this run I think

Xerof

slam
13-05-2005, 12:54 PM
Cheers Guys

arco
13-05-2005, 02:15 PM
Xerof

Yes the 618 fib is bound to have some effect
because TA's will be monitoring that point.

On a reversal at this point there is always the possibility
of a rally to test the old brokwn support at 7195/29th April.
This ties in with the 50% FIB just broken, and may align with
possible MA resistance following from above.

arco

Xerof
13-05-2005, 02:35 PM
Yes thats as far as I see it going - 95/00 area. I have my trailing stops at 7215 for tonight and might have a look at the rugby instead of FX this evening!

cheers

Xerof

I do note thats the 50 sma on the 30 mins;);)

Dazza
14-05-2005, 06:12 PM
nice resource arco
have saved it for future references

am waiting till 2nd semester of uni be4 i start this stuff :D

man cant wait to start this baby rolling

*prob with demos et al, have tried tricom and marketech

they use the similar programs..

somehow when i want to query a price or place an order.. i always get a SEND error...

at least i got my IG markets i guess

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:07 AM
Just took short NZD trades from 7335, 7308, 7255 and 7231 (2 units) back at 7111 for 805 pips (on one unit equivalent)

Will look to sell on rally to 7150 if seen, or on loss of 7080

Xerof

slam
16-05-2005, 03:02 PM
Nicely done Xerof
Great entry points as well.:)

Cheers
Slam

arco
16-05-2005, 03:42 PM
Still holding this as a longer term trade +229.

Circa 7080 may cause some hesitation IMO.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 04:17 PM
Yes, I thought we may have seen a bounce across the board earlier today, but seems not to be just yet. Haven't re-entered any USD longs yet - will see what Europe do to it but like you, Arco, still keen for much higher USD. Ideally should be able to re-enter on a slight bounce but have to admit it's not looking terribly promising at this stage for the bloc currencies.

A contact at ANZ has just put out a TA update on NZD - a breach of 7050/75 targets 66 odd cents in quick time - the old 'killer wave C'

Would love to post it here, but its a protected doco.


Xerof

arco
16-05-2005, 04:57 PM
Xerof

Thanks for that valuable info.

Here are some figures that might interest you,
and which tie in with the ANZ view.

A Bullish Butterfly could complete around 6562-6754.

There are Fib Levels circa 6502 - 6683

Plus other Gann levels throughout that may
cause some support and bounces. I will indicate
these as the NZD plot approaches.

arco

arco
16-05-2005, 05:15 PM
Xerof

Are you able to 'Snap' that ANZ doc and post it via TT,
or is it copyrighted?

arco

Xerof
16-05-2005, 05:51 PM
Arco, its on the other side now

cheers

Xerof

arco
17-05-2005, 01:41 PM
Xerof

Many thanks for positing the EW chart.

Short stopped out o/n at 7092.....+ 206

Auto long at 10 am.......7080......

+11 (short term trade)

arco

Dazza
17-05-2005, 08:37 PM
i can see easy the EW on the AUD/USD ..

howeva i am unable to see it in the NZD/USD?

mind if someone can give me a tip/hand?

arco
17-05-2005, 10:29 PM
Dazza

This might help

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd.usd.gif

arco

Dazza
18-05-2005, 07:50 AM
very nice arco thank you :D

Xerof
18-05-2005, 08:02 PM
Looking like a flat correction for wave 4 at the moment, if it can stay below 7110. If not shouldn't stray too far north, 7150 maybe?

Xerof

Dazza
18-05-2005, 09:06 PM
arco
bugger that >< my ig markets account, the chart doenst let me alter the x-axis ><

to have quarterly like urs :D

whered u get ur chart from? i want some good chart facilities ><

if on a monthly x-axis chart.... i cant see the EW ><

arco
18-05-2005, 09:59 PM
Dazza

Ideally please put general questions on the Chi-Chat thread,
that way we keep the pairs topics clean and readable
for easy reference and back checking.

Re your query. I have my own software program - Metastock,
and pay for EOD data.

Check it out here - www.equis.com

arco

arco
19-05-2005, 07:23 AM
quote:17/5.........long at 7080

Still holding currently +68

arco

Xerof
19-05-2005, 07:36 AM
quote:Looking like a flat correction for wave 4 at the moment, if it can stay below 7110. If not shouldn't stray too far north, 7150 maybe?

Anyone brave enough to sell yet?

Xerof

lakedaemonian
19-05-2005, 08:01 AM
Short NZD at .7140

arco
19-05-2005, 08:23 AM
Xerof
quote:Anyone brave enough to sell yet?

Perhaps not just yet...........because

The current small retrace might be EW3-4(1 & 3 hour chart)
and if that is correct there may still be a little more to come.
Also the upmove has not reached even 38.2 of previous down move.

Tight trailing stop just in case.

arco

Xerof
19-05-2005, 10:51 AM
OK patience may be required here -

I'm a fade-in seller at 7155, 7168 and 7175, s/l on the lot at 7210

OR s/l seller of full allocation at .7090

Xerof

arco
19-05-2005, 11:16 AM
Xerof FYI

Gann resistance level circa 7202 which
ties together nicely with 50% Fib and
old support from 27/4.

arco

arco
19-05-2005, 12:31 PM
I think this EW count is correct, so we may
see a turn to complete leg 5 very shortly.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd_ew.gif

arco
20-05-2005, 09:16 AM
The action has dropped as far as it is
allowed to go according to Elliott Wave rules.

i.e. Wave 4 should not penitrate the end of Wave 1.
(Pink line previous chart), unless plot is a diagonal.

However, very slight spike overlaps
are allowed in certain instruments such as Fx.

So, we really need to see a turn around here,
otherwise the count shown on the chart is voided.

Still long at 7080 +19.

arco

peat
31-05-2005, 11:30 AM
I took out a short at 7122 last nite.... - just a little contract - have very wide s/l and t/p - prepared to ride this for a while and be patient....

arco where are you on this pair now?

arco
31-05-2005, 12:20 PM
Peat

IMO the EW 4 possibly completed on 26th with
an almost perfect AB=CD and therefore I deceided
to close out my long at 7140 + (+55) and remain
on the sidelines.

No present position - awaiting Flag break.
Appears to be a good long term short IMO,
(as suggested way back when at 7446).

arco

peat
31-05-2005, 12:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


(as suggested way back when at 7446).

arco

yes I've missed far too many of your valuable recommendations.
But I am slowly expanding my sphere of operations and gingerly increasing my exposure/risk levels etc....

Forex will be around for a while, as long as I dont bust my a/c :D

lakedaemonian
01-06-2005, 11:17 AM
quote:N.Z. Dollar May See `Significant' Demand on Taxes, Westpac Says

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The New Zealand dollar may attract ``significant'' demand in the next two years on repatriation by fund managers before proposed tax changes that favor domestic over overseas share investments, Westpac Banking Corp. said.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen in the May 19 budget proposed scrapping a so-called grey-list of seven countries, including the U.S., U.K. and Australia, where New Zealanders can invest in stocks without paying tax on any capital gains. He also proposed abolishing capital gains tax on domestic equity investment, with the changes slated for 2007.

``Clearly, the proposed changes would provide investors with an incentive to repatriate some or all of their grey-list investment ahead of the legislation,'' Wellington-based Johnathan Bayley, a senior currency strategist at Westpac, wrote in a note to clients, which he confirmed by telephone. ``There's general agreement that there is potential for a substantial shift in investor allocation.''

New Zealanders' investments in overseas equities total NZ$24.5 billion ($17.4 billion) said Bayley, citing balance of payments figures, with about 80 percent invested in the seven grey-list countries, also including Canada, Norway, Germany and Japan.

Bayley said by assuming 25 percent of equity investments in the seven countries are repatriated to avoid the capital gains tax, it would bring about NZ$5 billion of funds back to New Zealand. This would result in around $NZ3.4 billion of extra demand for the currency because some funds hedge against appreciation of the New Zealand dollar to protect the value of their overseas equities, he said.

`Significant Flow'

``In terms of underlying currency supply and demand this is a fairly significant flow,'' Bayley said.

New Zealand's deficit in its current account, which measures flows of goods, services and investments, widened to a record NZ$9.39 billion in 2004.

The New Zealand dollar has gained 12 percent in the past year to buy 71.14 U.S. cents as of 2:40 p.m. in Wellington. The currency will drop to 64 cents by year-end, Westpac predicts.

Any reallocation of funds back into New Zealand won't be made until investors are made aware of the details of the tax changes and it is passed into law, Bayley said.


I just came across this in regards to proposed changes in the new budget and thought it could be relevant to this thread.

Does anyone think this has the potential to significantly impact the anticipated drop in the NZ Dollar in the coming year or two?

Xerof
01-06-2005, 01:24 PM
Hard to say, but its not the only factor in the equation


quote: Uridashi redemptions total NZD6.7b in 2006, NZD4.6b in 2007
Eurokiwi redemptions total NZD2.6b in 2006, NZD3.4b in 2007



If these don't get rolled over or replaced by continued new issuance, there's enough supply to counter any one-off inflows such as has been suggested in the article.

And who knows now what the mood of the markets will be at that stage?

Take it as it plays out at the time


Xerof

zyreon
01-06-2005, 02:55 PM
short term long opportunity?

June 9th RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

maybe Dr Bollard will make good on his will-not-rule-out-further-rate-rises rhetoric

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2005/1691405.html

Xerof
01-06-2005, 03:18 PM
I think the interpretation taken by the markets of his "outside MPS comments" was that he didn't want the rate curve anticipating future easings too early, and thereby undermining the current state of monetary policy.

My pick is he won't tighten, but will retain same sort of rhetoric, especially if we see Kiwi in decline in the meantime.

But recent data has a softer tinge to it, and recent USD strength has capped the Kiwi anyway. Haven't had a look at TWI level, but it must still be very high, as Kiwi so far has held in rather well.

Hearing from various sources and contacts, that "decisions" to unwind the infamous carry trades have already been taken, and nothing will change that process. Watch the sinking lid - sell all rallies - locate your grandmother and prepare her for sale too[8D][8D] IMHO of course

Xerof

arco
01-06-2005, 04:20 PM
The mass fundamental info will only confuse,
so the information you require is all in the chart.

MT/LT short IMVHO.

Whats Max got to say Xerof?

Xerof
01-06-2005, 05:33 PM
Med term:


quote:APRIL 29th,.7280 -- Kiwi still favours a much greater corrective decline and sell-off to .6800 over coming weeks,probably enroute the .6400 level


Short term: sell at 7075/00, stop at 7125, for 7000

Xerof
01-06-2005, 06:20 PM
sitting right on 200 SMA line here at 7030

will it, won't it [^][^]

seems pressure coming through AUD.NZD cross selling for the moment

I guess you have to sell the break if not already short - thats what the momentum model accounts will do....NYK session might see the fireworks

Xerof

D: short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571

GO the comdols !!

zyreon
01-06-2005, 08:08 PM
6999

Xerof
01-06-2005, 10:55 PM
Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell:D:D

peat
02-06-2005, 07:27 AM
yeh i still have one short
but bought back at 7014 and 6968

strange thing to say but in this sort of market taking profits is dangerous tho....

slam
02-06-2005, 08:30 AM
All things being equal (which they never are)
I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
Anyone else get close to that?
Cheers
Slam

slam
02-06-2005, 10:01 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam

All things being equal (which they never are)
I get a fib retracement for 61.8 off the lows to 70.18
Anyone else get close to that?
Cheers
Slam

I think this one has already gone,[:I]
Change that too 6998

arco
02-06-2005, 11:23 AM
H&S formation neckline broken on daily
- thats a bearish sign.

Neckline may have to be tested, but once polarity
change is confirmed..... watch out below.

http://www.animatedgif.net/animals/bugs/jbspider_e0.gif

zyreon
02-06-2005, 01:12 PM
it's times like these I'm glad i'm long a put option

Xerof
06-06-2005, 06:57 PM
quote:1/6 - short 2 units at 7120, along with 2 units of AUD at 7571

quote:later on 1/6 - Cleaned up on both of the above at .6971 and .7477 respectively - thanks v much to the FX gods. Looking for modest bounces now to resell

Nice bounces indeed so far - possibly slightly better than modest - any views out there?

I reckon 7080/90 for Kiwi, but AUD looks fairly bid still - 7650?

Where are we on the SPIDER INDEX Arco?

Xerof

zyreon
06-06-2005, 07:56 PM
IMO

Thursday's RBNZ statement will keep it above 70 from at least here till then... market pricing in expectations of 1. the possibility of a rate rise, and 2. the possibility of dr bollard making a statement like no rate rise now but maybe next time

(fundamentally speaking of course... on the downside there's 29/30 june FOMC meeting, which could provide a catalyst for exploring levels below 69?)

arco
07-06-2005, 09:51 AM
Xerof


quote:Where are we on the SPIDER INDEX Arco?

The 'web' based oscillator is below zero and as mentioned
previously I expect a test of the H&S neckline before
NZD continues south. Long term - down

arco
http://www.gifs.net/animate/spiderer.gif

Xerof
07-06-2005, 10:03 AM
Sold two units at 7087 - close enough to neckline for me, but will add more whichever way it goes.

Xerof

peat
07-06-2005, 10:56 AM
yes its looking stretched ... i have one short from a while back - about 100 pips out now [B)] ( I didnt initiate it at that level but thats where the rollover places it now)
I will roll with it at this stage as its only 1x10k , will average up if i get the opportunity (cant trade from the day job office unfortunately hahah)

zyreon
07-06-2005, 05:23 PM
wtf... just spiked way up

peat
07-06-2005, 05:24 PM
its finding some wings alright!!

zyreon
07-06-2005, 05:36 PM
maybe a jumping spider ;)

Xerof
07-06-2005, 10:22 PM
quote:Sold two units at 7087

Nope, not a good decision this morning. Stopped and reversed at 7134 for 5 units (net 3 long). Have downside stop at b/e now as I don't completely trust this upmove, but we all know Kiwi has a terrible habit of overextending. Ozzie looks bid to hell, did hear Asian CB has been a big buyer....

Xerof:(:(

peat
07-06-2005, 10:25 PM
it would appear some spiders catch the breeze quite well.
I bailed on my short, a bit late really
no pain no gain. [?]

peat
07-06-2005, 10:52 PM
i cant help but think you'd be brave to long at this point...
but if i strongly believed that I would have held onto my short

i'm all flat at this present moment.

zyreon
08-06-2005, 12:42 PM
put option (i don't care)

(well i do somewhat but not to the extent i would if spot)

The only thing is i forecast that it would go up now like it has, so went long (only 1 contract!) at 7000 for the short term rally and jumped at about 7070 {lacking in committment maybe}

Xerof
08-06-2005, 01:23 PM
TRL -
quote:Whilst .7150/7165 caps,risks sell-off back toward Key .7100/7065 Support

Arco, forming any strong views on Kiwi? - I'm mulling selling it around here with a tight stop above 7170.

Xerof

lakedaemonian
08-06-2005, 04:18 PM
I'm getting in this elevator........"Going down, ground floor please." :D

Xerof
08-06-2005, 04:34 PM
quote:No indication of Reversal yet.Beyond .7165 & next Resistance at .7200/15

Patience MAY provide a better level....
has the same 'feel' about it as yesterday nearing the London open


Xerof

arco
08-06-2005, 05:13 PM
Xerof

IMO this is just a polarity test of the bearish H&S.

My thoughts are still as mentioned previously........


quote:The.... oscillator is below zero and as mentioned
previously I expect a test of the H&S neckline before
NZD continues south. Long term - down

One tactic could be to trail a short entry from behind
the northbound action.

Next Gann resistance is at 7202 which could aid with
resistance at the neckline.

arco

Xerof
08-06-2005, 05:32 PM
Arco, put me right - I thought the neckline was 7087...[xx(][xx(]

Could you draw me a little piccy of where you see it? without the spider will suffice;);)

Xerof

arco
08-06-2005, 08:55 PM
Zero spiders :D

http://www.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/nzd.jpg

Xerof
08-06-2005, 09:41 PM
Hmmm, I can see that your chart is based on EOD Arco.

Unfortunately I used a HLC line (using lows) to get a neckline. THATS THE REASON - AAGGHH - makes a significant difference, circa 120 piparoonies.

Back to my books.....now wheres the bit on H&S formations....necklines...ah, here it is...beware of low necklines...they'll leave you feeling a right t!t...Ok - understood

Xerof

BTW I must tell the techie at WPAC to use EOD - it was a graph put out in their weekly that I glanced at to check the neckline !!

arco
08-06-2005, 10:13 PM
Xerof

I usually use the close, however others may have
their own ideas. This diagram from Incredible charts....

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/images/png_images/head%20and%20shoulders%20trading.png

arco

arco
09-06-2005, 07:28 AM
Xerof

A bit of tech info for you........

The line chart provides less information than a bar chart, but is more useful for charting long term trends. It has a line that plots only the closing price against time.

http://www.flexinvest.co.uk/images/linechart.gif

arco

peat
09-06-2005, 07:35 AM
was pretty lucky , shorted again at 0.7155 last nite just before i went to sleep...

Xerof
09-06-2005, 08:17 AM
Arco, yes noted thanks, I redrew neckline using line chart last night - then reverted chart to a HLC - last nights top was about 5 pips under perfection

Xerof

peat
09-06-2005, 08:21 AM
doubled up at .7133 , set stop to break even and it just got taken out hahah.... the kiwi is a shocker
still holding the euro short from 1.2335 tho

peat
09-06-2005, 01:04 PM
Kiwi is really having a life of its own it seems to me....

Walt
09-06-2005, 01:18 PM
You're fighting our ludicrously hawkish CB ... honestly, they'll be easing by Q4 '04 at this rate ...

Kiwi will have its waterloo when the Q1 data starts undershooting ... course commodity strength isn't helping shorts either, ditto the Aussie ...

Xerof
20-06-2005, 10:51 PM
Peat, yr post on the AUD thread refers

I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area, based on EOD data. BUT, I also see an inverse H&S pattern which has formed below the neckline of the larger H&S over the past few weeks, so need to carefully watch price action in early 72's for a continuation of uptrend. i.e. a failed H&S.

Interested in others views on this

Xerof

arco
21-06-2005, 08:47 AM
Morning Xerof

I mentioned possible General Gann resistance
could halt progress circa 7202. The overnight
high was 7197, so we could see a little hesitation
at this point. Major Gann will muster his troops
more to the North and I expect he will be almost
impenetrable at co-ordinates 7324.

Yes I see that little Inverse Head and Shoulders
you mentioned. I will have a word with Dan Druff
about this, however if I use the normal H & S
yardstick it amazingly projects the action to circa
7350........not a million miles from Major Gann's
position at 7324.

:D Keep smiling

PS. How much is my $20 worth now in the Fund of Funds.

Xerof
21-06-2005, 09:28 AM
Well lets see now, after fees for entry, your share of the launch party costs, Colonel Gann's appearance fee, and that first dumb deal I did on your behalf..... er, can I have your address to send you the bill for $8.60:D:D

I'm in the final throes of getting documentation out to my 'habituals, close business associates etc', then wait for their cheques to stop bouncing, and away we go.

Thanks for comments on NZD. Maybe sell 7200 with very tight stop and reverse perhaps - if one HAS to have a trade on.

Xerof

zyreon
23-06-2005, 06:54 PM
nice little cascade there

Xerof
23-06-2005, 08:11 PM
Looks a bit like the original H&S has developed as expected - dammit, side tracked today and missed all the activity

But see trendline support at 7080 in the interim, but v limited bounces now I feel. Otherwise might have to chase it lower....

Xerof

zyreon
23-06-2005, 08:52 PM
from a fundamental perspective... tomorrow's NZ GDP is pushing the NZDUSD down a little due to negative expectations... I have no idea what GDP figure will be... though if it's negative or in line with expectations the tone could be set as bearish for the next couple of days.

POSSIBLY (just my thoughts)

as well as that the FOMC meets on 29/30 and may raise interest rates again, which tends to be bearish for the NZDUSD... so pricing of that in could help strengthen the bearish tone. added to that the possibility of stop-loss price cascade we could see some good downward movement over the next few weeks?

(DISC though i own a few puts i.e. i have a bearish bias so i could be unconsciously ignoring the up side, or over imagining the downside)

zyreon
23-06-2005, 08:53 PM
by the way, some of today's action was instigated by the current account data for NZ - which was somewhat bearish

arco
24-06-2005, 08:21 AM
And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D

If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............

General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202

...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.

GTA

arco

slam
24-06-2005, 08:27 AM
arco
GTA ?

Xerof
24-06-2005, 08:37 AM
Good Trading All
good trading ahead
Gann trounces allcomers

That Major Gann deserves a promotion Arco

Xerof

lakedaemonian
24-06-2005, 08:41 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco


And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D

If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............

General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202

...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.

GTA

arco








My limit order missed getting triggered by 2 pips :(

Arggggg!

arco
24-06-2005, 08:51 AM
Lake

One solution is to scale several orders in at
different rates around the target.

e.g. 7192/7197/7202/7207/7212

Slam
GTA
Gone to Australia :D

.......will the last person to leave
please switch off the light.

Good Trading All

Great Trousers Arco

arco
24-06-2005, 08:54 AM
Xerof

Come back....all is forgiven

we miss your FA. :D

slam
24-06-2005, 09:25 AM
NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)

slam
24-06-2005, 09:49 AM
quote:Originally posted by slam

NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)


And that was it[:0]

Xerof
24-06-2005, 10:01 AM
Arco

I'm here, I'm here

200 day EMA right here at 7037, looking in grave danger of breaking, but that H&S I've talked about ad nauseum appears to have successfully repelled upside attempts, with not inconsiderable assistance from General Gann and his troops.

Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se, well hearing from interbank traders of stops under 7030, i.e on a break of 200 day EMA:D:D

Xerof

slam
24-06-2005, 10:14 AM
wolfe pattern (or one eyed trouser snake) mentioned on General Chit Chat seems to be in play[8D]

Xerof
24-06-2005, 10:23 AM
I COULD be wrong (that is not uncommon:):)) but this area might hold for a while - profit taking before weekend by locals, proximity of EMA200. If it does, sell rallies back to 7075/80, where one should add to those excellent shorts from higher up. I'm not advocating going long - think we'll see an attack on sub 7030 in tonights twilight zone.

Xerof

arco
24-06-2005, 11:29 AM
Xerof

Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se

Who would say such a thing....Only a very cheeky person! [:I]

Xerof
24-06-2005, 11:53 AM
or someone who perhaps is singularly holy

slam
24-06-2005, 01:45 PM
Good call on the bounce there Xerof[8D]

Xerof
24-06-2005, 06:43 PM
Well, have to follow my instincts - sold at 7075. s/l just above 7100

Xerof

added at 7110 s/l on both 7130

Xerof
25-06-2005, 10:50 AM
Pssssst, hey Peat, that last post you did on the other channel last night quoting your platforms NZD comments - of course you know who the 'tentative swiss' interest was don't you? - GCM.

BTW, I would suggest the banks were VERY pleased to see him, as trying to execute large s/l orders on a Friday afternoon in NYK spells disaster for customer relationships....

which platform do you use Peat?, as that comment was right up with the play, in both accuracy and timing - possibly one of the clearers making supportive comments, being very keen to ensure nothing was going to be triggered late in the day

Watch out next week - its 'gunna' happen

I also took back half my position at 7047

nice weekend to all - it's pissing down here today

Xerof

peat
25-06-2005, 11:12 AM
I use GFT Dealbook FX2 and yes the news feed is quite good.
I dont know who the GCM you refer to is tho. Care to clarify?

I have reduced my Kiwi shorts now still holding something and will probably add again if it spikes next week. Shame I didnt do that last night - Arco's quote about being brave sticks in my throat sometimes hahah
Glad you didnt get stopped out last night Xerof. I was thinkin of you :)

Xerof
26-06-2005, 10:03 AM
gold c.... m..... - put it into context now? remember a few weeks ago he stated he used XXX (a swiss bank) to clear all his non AUD and YEN transactions? So who was buying it around 7044? and AUD around 7669 and stopped the rot for the rest of the day....


cheers

Xerof

peat
26-06-2005, 09:41 PM
nope that doesnt precisely clarify... tho I'm getting your general drift... Seems like there must be some reason why you're not spelling it out... no matter....

Good trades...

slam
29-06-2005, 07:02 AM
5th leg count circa .6920:) completing the wolfe
Need a 4th bounce first;)
Cheers
Slam

arco
29-06-2005, 07:55 AM
Morning Slam

I presume you are talking about Wolfe Wave.

What date is your start point?


Regards
arco

slam
29-06-2005, 08:07 AM
Morning arco
circa 30th may

arco
29-06-2005, 08:44 AM
OK - what are you basing your 5th wave
projection figure on ?

slam
29-06-2005, 09:11 AM
from 1 to 4
I should clarify that the 30th was count of 1
http://www.nzwebservice.co.nz/4xcharts/NZD-USD Daily.gif

arco
29-06-2005, 09:36 AM
Slam

Yes I can see where you are coming from,
however I could see the 5th wave ending
lower.

Where did you learn your Wolfe Wave ?

and has it worked for you?

arco

slam
29-06-2005, 09:54 AM
arco

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/040405.asp

First time I've found this pattern and so far on this trade it's working fine.
My end point may be a bit out as my charts, as you can see, don't allow room for future plotting :(
will follow this one as it looks like the real deal

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
29-06-2005, 11:02 AM
Nice work Slam,

I don't know which charting package you have but if you want some fresh air on the RHS of your charts, go to view, periods, then change leading space to whatever suits

you can also adjust the periods shown on any chart using periods - you'll find it in the same box as leading space

Yes looks like selling rallies is the mode for a while now

Still short from 7075, added last night at 7037 and 7036 just to keep an interest....

Xerof

arco
29-06-2005, 11:10 AM
Hi Slam

I have experimented with WW in the past
but I did not find they worked well with FX.
(I think they work OK on some of the indices).

The NZD pattern is again not quite perfect based
on the rule Waves 3 and 5 are usually 127%
or 162% (Fibonacci) extensions of the previous
channel point.

Anyway, patterns are rarely perfect, so it
will be interesting to see what happens.

arco

slam
29-06-2005, 11:11 AM
Hi Xerof
Unfortunately I use FX power chart which doesn’t allow leading space (you get what you pay for and it's free[:I])
I also use market scope but don’t like the tools it has.
May have to look for a new one soon me thinks
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
29-06-2005, 11:54 AM
Slam

Yes I know what you mean - I use http://www.dailyfx.com/fxpowerchart/ChartStation.html as a basic service, also expensively free and it doesn't have leading space either. Saxobanks charts have the feature I mentioned, on their trading platform

Xerof

slam
29-06-2005, 01:10 PM
sorry arco, missed your comments.
point taken on the fib.
still think it fits the criteria well though.
as you say, just have to wait and see if ww works with fx
worth a crack Nigel;)

Cheers Slam

arco
29-06-2005, 03:12 PM
Nigel’s whole future is as good as sealed
And if young Nigel says he’s happy
He must be happy
He must be happy in his work
Nigel is not outspoken
But he likes to speak
And loves to be spoken to
Nigel is happy in his work
We’re only making plans for nigel

Pure Ecstasy ;) or should that be XTC.

slam
29-06-2005, 04:28 PM
used to sing it;)

Xerof
30-06-2005, 12:08 AM
took shorts back at 6987 - 10 units for total 342.5 pips

Good night

slam
30-06-2005, 09:21 AM
The boy who cried wolfe
Still waiting for the 4th and 5th to finish.
May need to get an extended 5th to complete general pattern;)

Only time will let us know (Link or Chapter I think):)

Cheers Slam

arco
30-06-2005, 09:32 AM
The boy who cried Wolfe Wave.:)

The plot could well reach the 1-4 line but there
may be some northward movement before that can
happen IMVHO.

Xerof
30-06-2005, 10:03 AM
Morning all

if we're lucky, might be able to re-establish short around 7030/40 area - unless Major Gann has pushed his northern battalion further south overnight :D:D

Xerof

arco
30-06-2005, 10:16 AM
Bit of news due later today...........

....any fundi thoughts from the back room boys that we
should be aware of Xerof.


Date............GMT-SYD-NZ-Release for-Period-Consensus- Previous

30/06/2005 01.30 11.30 13.30 AUS ABS Job Vacancies May Q 6.2%
30/06/2005 01.30 11.30 13.30 AUS Private Sector Credit May 1.0% 0.9%
30/06/2005 07.55 17.55 19.55 GER Unemployment Rate Jun 11.8%
30/06/2005 07.55 17.55 19.55 GER Unemployment Change Jun flat
30/06/2005 08.30 18.30 20.30 UK GDP Q1 0.5% 0.5%
30/06/2005 09.00 19.00 21.00 EMU CPI y/y Jun 1.9%
30/06/2005 09.30 19.30 21.30 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Jun -1 -1
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/e 25/6 330K 314K
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Personal Income May 0.3% 0.7%
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Personal Spending May 0.1% 0.6%
30/06/2005 12.30 22.30 0.30 US Core PCE Index May 0.1% 0.1%
30/06/2005 13.00 23.00 1.00 US NY NAPM Jun 337.3
30/06/2005 14.00 24.00 2.00 US Chicago PMI Jun 53.0 54.1
30/06/2005 18.30 4.30 6.30 US FOMC Interest Rate Announcement