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arco
17-03-2004, 11:25 AM
One of my systems has triggered a
possible long on the Aud.Usd.
I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
however there is often a decent day trade
available from this signal.

Please note. My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The system I have detailed above could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow this system be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk and that I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred.

arco
19-03-2004, 11:32 AM
Update.
Nice rise already on this one so far since inception and has
been up as high as .7539 from open 17/3 @ .7422

In these situations IMO its always good to take 100 points
profit on 50% of the position and let the balance ride
with a trailing stop.

arco
26-03-2004, 11:48 AM
As I have said before, IMO its sensible to take
100 points profit on 50% of the position
and let the balance ride with a trailing stop.

Stop was hit yesterday on the balance (at entry price),
but at least the 100 taken earlier is safely in
the bag.

First day signal has now triggerd short.( Weekly already short).

arco
14-04-2004, 02:58 PM
Short was stopped for a loss of 78 pips.

arco
29-04-2004, 11:59 AM
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04.29.gif

arco
07-05-2004, 10:17 AM
Short remains in place, and AUD could still fall further IMO.
Slight modification to EW count.
(Pink line is trailing stop).

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/050604.gif

arco
08-05-2004, 10:19 AM
Continued falling as expected.

Moving stop to 7120 as protection, and will be
following very closely to maximise profits.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/trade4.gif

arco
11-05-2004, 09:16 AM
Continued falling as expected, but has reached the
possible area of support.

Moving stop to 7060, and will be
following very closely to maximise profits.

Current pip profit if closed 362.

arco
11-05-2004, 11:55 AM
Trade closed for a profit of 350 pips / US$3465.50 as I feel there is the possible chance of a minor? reversal at this point.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/ClosetradeA.gif

arco
12-05-2004, 09:09 AM
Selling yesterday turned out to be the
right way to go as AUD has reversed
overnight. Hard to tell at the moment
if the fall will resume, but I should
have a better idea or future direction
on or by 17th May.

arco
14-05-2004, 08:57 AM
The fall has resumed and I am short again.
May 20 may be a chart point direction date.
(This is not a Gann date).

arco
19-05-2004, 11:27 AM
I recently mentioned possible reversal due on 20th - today being the 19th it may be a day early.

Hammer/Harami off Fib and changed polarity lines could signify a possible reversal at this point IMO.


http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/051804A.gif

arco
20-05-2004, 11:37 AM
140 pip max profit range yesterday for anyone who took the initiative.

arco
28-07-2004, 09:50 AM
For medium term holders there was a nice northbound run of around 470-500 pips from C area as envisaged 19/5 which ended at red line resistance of A.

There now appears to be more downside to come IMO.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/07272004.gif

arco
19-01-2008, 03:09 PM
Aussie may reverse north off the uptrend line.
Watching for a cofirmation reversal signal, however if
the TL breaks, the chart will need to be re-accessed.

The alternative scenario on a TL break is a trip to the
next UT line (circa .8400), forming a bullish Gartley.

_________________________________

peat
22-01-2008, 05:56 AM
i've been stopped out on all the aud longs at the 8680 level (about 80 above where it is now) and I never took a kiwi one. for me this trade idea never worked and I entered a bit soon as well.
so it goes.

arco
22-01-2008, 10:51 AM
Always a dilemma when there are twin scenarios, but
it does appear now that the 2nd is in the frame.

In these cases a serious entry regime with MM should
always be followed

arco
22-01-2008, 11:36 AM
The red Gartley having reached the first resistance zone appears
to have been an integral part of the old blue BF which could still
be alive and well and heading for the next potential lower target.

A completion to the Blue BF PTZ would then create a new Gartley
(mentioned 2 days ago) shown in turquoise.

Blue box is PTZ, (c) with 2 UT line possibilities for support/reversal.

dumbass
30-01-2008, 08:49 PM
watching aussie for possible short

? evening star formation

wave 2 retracing 786 fib wave 1

Steve
13-02-2008, 07:06 PM
The AUDUSD could be looking for a rise in the short-term...

Steve
14-02-2008, 07:10 PM
The AUDUSD could be looking for a rise in the short-term...

24 hours later, the AUDUSD has recovered to where it was at yesterdays post, having dropped 1c overnight and recovering it back.

Perhaps I was a day too early, or have I just given it another kiss of death?

Nevl
19-02-2008, 12:33 PM
Anyone else long on Aussie? Have being holding for a few days now and feel it could start to push up to .92 over this week. The strong economy in Aussie and the commodity price rises should support the A$. The only downside is if people think the US will not go into reccession and no more interest rate cuts by the Fed. Any thoughts?

dumbass
19-02-2008, 06:59 PM
hi

looks like a good long

from an elliot wave potential count

running in a third wave of a bigger third wave , very likely to take out previous high and probably test parity on longer time frame

risk limit 89.24

Nevl
19-02-2008, 07:17 PM
Thanks for that chart. It has already gone through 0.92 but not held up. Will be interesting to see when profit takers knock it back and if it will head towards 93. Hoping anyway.

Bilo
21-02-2008, 08:44 AM
Thanks for that chart. It has already gone through 0.92 but not held up. Will be interesting to see when profit takers knock it back and if it will head towards 93. Hoping anyway.

Got stopped out at 0.9111 last night. It appears to be just a special spike down for my stop. Who says they don't hunt stops!
:rolleyes:

Nevl
21-02-2008, 10:15 AM
Yes strange night last night on equities and currencies. Did not get stopped out and have enjoyed the recovery since. given the reaction to the fed notes i expect the Aus/usd to start to push 0.925 today and have bet accordingly

dumbass
21-02-2008, 05:26 PM
Got stopped out at 0.9111 last night. It appears to be just a special spike down for my stop. Who says they don't hunt stops!
:rolleyes:

now thats a bitch, you nailed that swing low to the absolute pip

Bilo
21-02-2008, 09:31 PM
now thats a bitch, you nailed that swing low to the absolute pip
Thanks D. Yes Bs.
I could be proud of it. But is not the first time. I felt that they really go out of their way at times. Whoever they are, they can obviously see far more than I can.

Bilo
21-02-2008, 09:44 PM
Yes strange night last night on equities and currencies. Did not get stopped out and have enjoyed the recovery since. given the reaction to the fed notes i expect the Aus/usd to start to push 0.925 today and have bet accordingly

I had been trying to trade the big butterfly to return to ~.94 as in November. I will just have to go back to trading pieces of it during days if these stops keep getting taken out. The further i put them away the further the curve seems to bend towards them..I thought ~100 points would have been enough..

Nevl
22-02-2008, 09:04 AM
seriously unlucky Bilo. Was wrong about the move up yesterday myself but as Aussie has gone sideways am holding my long position for the expected breakout. Am doing small trades between .917 and .920 at the moment

peat
25-02-2008, 06:25 PM
seems to me that Aussie just popped out of an ascending triangle formed during the last 24 trading hours

edit : will try to be more precise now , and specify a target of 92.50 plus 60 pips = 93.10 , this being the size of the triangle)

have started buying and will buy on dips with stop loss 92.20

Nevl
25-02-2008, 09:23 PM
Finally made it to 0.925. A few days late. Still feel that there is positive sentiment out there and the general move will be up. Will stay long and trade on the dips. Feel confident about 0.93 by the end of the week.

peat
26-02-2008, 06:43 AM
hasnt conformed to my pattern. trade alive but its just random now.

heh
it turned pretty soon after I made this post. was more of a gartley in the end tho not a proper one.

Nevl
26-02-2008, 07:17 AM
Yeah a little nervous at the moment. This guy http://advisor.fxstreet.com/ is a US$ bull at the moment but the only one I have found. Still making short trades with a long bias. So ignoring the advice. Has being some nice trades and seems more volatile in London trading than Aussie trading.

peat
27-02-2008, 07:52 AM
a target of 92.50 plus 60 pips = 93.10

target reached.

Bilo
27-02-2008, 08:59 AM
target reached.

So what now?
Some are picking .94/.95 near term and 1.00 in the not too distant future - before the Kiwi....!

peat
27-02-2008, 09:26 AM
I dunno Bilo

You see I cant play feelings coz thats how I lose... so I need a pattern to trade. So I just look for technically based patterns and that gives me a concrete strategy. they dont always win but they seem to do better overall than hunches or feelings etc....

dumbass
01-03-2008, 07:01 AM
worth a look back at the big picture where it can look crystal clear

this is a monthly chart

simple zig zag A B C correction

5 waves up A

3 waves down B

5 waves up C

often A = C

currently in fifth wave which should terminate around parity

just as simple as being a big round number will see the action get pretty close

dumbass
01-03-2008, 07:30 AM
can now zoom in and study structure of the 5th wave from the monthly

currently correcting in 4th ( today )

4th likely to be a triangle

before termination of fifth

i would trade it very carefully from now on as the third wave easy pips have gone

the fifth wave could take many forms and may be good for scalping trades

the money trade is the correction which will commence after the fifth has completed .

waiting for that

Bilo
01-03-2008, 11:30 AM
can now zoom in and study structure of the 5th wave from the monthly

currently correcting in 4th ( today )

4th likely to be a triangle

before termination of fifth

i would trade it very carefully from now on as the third wave easy pips have gone

the fifth wave could take many forms and may be good for scalping trades

the money trade is the correction which will commence after the fifth has completed .

waiting for that

I like it D!
At least - it gives the result that I think most people expect and something to watch out for.:)

dumbass
12-03-2008, 07:22 PM
looks like 4th wave complete at 91.50

possible entry on wave 2 retracement to 92.50 area for run north to parity ?

risk limit 91.50

4th wave has printed bull flag

arco
12-03-2008, 08:24 PM
Hi DB

Not sure about parity, but certainly looks like Aussie could
be north bound to around the .9650-.9900 zone (red box).

Blue line is critical if the EW wave is correct.

rgds - arco

arco
17-03-2008, 07:36 PM
Big fall today, but the action is still currently holding above
the critical EW count line shown on the last chart. (Must
stay above .9100)

I managed 100 pips off a one order last week but the balance
got stopped on Friday night at +50

she'll be right

Steve
18-03-2008, 05:23 AM
A 3c trading range for the day, and still holding above 91 although currently on its low of 9155

dumbass
18-03-2008, 08:40 AM
took a long on this one , market all over the place but when such a good risk reward trade comes along you got to take it

91.00 is the big line in the sand for two reasons

refer back to daily chart the internal count i ii iii iv v would be expected to correct to bottom of iv 91.20

4 wave can not enter territory of 1 again around 91.00

so worth a punt risking 70 pips for many

dumbass
20-03-2008, 06:23 PM
interesting developments on this one

got stopped out for a +100 first time around

have re entered another long at 91 40 , sl 90 70

the low today hopefully of wave 4 breached wave 1 by 10 pips , this is a very contentious issue but general wisdom seems to allow a small intra day breach

so stick with bullish count but certainly looking at other counts

time will tell as it always does

Steve
20-03-2008, 08:09 PM
the low today hopefully of wave 4 breached wave 1 by 10 pips , this is a very contentious issue but general wisdom seems to allow a small intra day breach

That is an interesting thing with TA. It is the way that traders deal with these breaches that can often make or break a trader...

Steve
20-03-2008, 10:00 PM
have re entered another long at 91 40 , sl 90 70

There goes the Stop Loss...

What does this mean for the wave count?

dumbass
20-03-2008, 11:47 PM
top in at 95.00

bearish count should take it down to 86 ish

stopped out for -70

arco
21-03-2008, 07:33 AM
Hi DB/Steve

With the break of the "critical" point shown on
my last chart the plot started to look like a possible
'truncated' 5th.

Being unconvinced re the long I left a
short order on at .9105 after dinner which
is currently +109

arco

Steve
21-03-2008, 07:40 AM
Good move Arco!

I have set aside some time this long weekend to investigate the BASICS of wave counting & butterflys etc, so can hopefully start contributing some similar analysis to the rest of you...

dumbass
27-04-2008, 09:42 AM
looking like a high chance of top being in on aus at 9541

the weekly candlestick has printed a doji as well as some trendline resistance on daily

rsi divergence as well.

i m viewing this as confirmation of aus jpy short at 98

weakness in this cross is from aus weakness rather than yen strength

the only slight hurdle is negotiating a corrective move on the aus and probably eur and nzd early next week before major weakness returns with big yen move

this should provide good shorts for eur usd and aud usd etc and further stock melt down

AMR
14-05-2008, 10:14 PM
Have gone long at 9322 sl 9280 on a bounce off resistance and the daily trendline.

AMR
15-05-2008, 09:37 AM
Covered for a total...10 pips profit.:o. The currency is looking indecisive.

AMR
23-05-2008, 07:19 PM
Gosh, I could have been 300 pips up had I held on. My great entries but poor exits are making it quite tricky...might be time to try use my sharetrading strategies on this rather than my short-term futures scalping ones. Now I know how Cujodog feels:(

Packersoldkidney
11-06-2008, 12:12 AM
Fundamentally we are overdue a rally in the US $ - and I'm not talking about recent comments made by Bernanke that have seen the US $ stage a small rally - I'm talking over the medium term. In the next year, IMO, the US $ will surge, and those things that act as counterweights to the US $ will fall.

macduffy
11-06-2008, 01:53 PM
Fundamentally we are overdue a rally in the US $ - and I'm not talking about recent comments made by Bernanke that have seen the US $ stage a small rally - I'm talking over the medium term. In the next year, IMO, the US $ will surge, and those things that act as counterweights to the US $ will fall.

Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

:)

Packersoldkidney
11-06-2008, 03:12 PM
Hi Psk - May I call you that?
What do you see as the catalysts for a medium term rally in the USD?
I imagine that interest rates will turn up but it will also need an improvement in the bop and in consumer confidence, amongst other things? Or are we looking at a comparative decline in the fortunes of other major economies as the trigger?

Cheers

:)

You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

Europe has yet to see the effects of the sub-prime/credit crunch - they will though - I expect Europe, economically to be comparitively weak compared to other places on the globe. This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.

Deflation has already arrived in real-estate and in stock markets - and it looks as if it is affecting gold now as well. Gold is a leading indicator for where oil is about to go. With the air out of the commodities bubble that will leave a lot of money with no place to go - and in the current recessionary environment that means Cash is King.

Fundamentally the US $ is looking good, in terms of future expectations the US Fed will choose to fight inflation over keeping a 'stronger' economy - just as they have done in every other recession in living memory: meaning higher interest rates. Other economies around the world have just about reached the end of their interest rate raising cycles - the US Fed hasn't even started its yet. And it will have to start, because elsewise it is putting its hands up and saying: "these high prices, and especially high oil prices, are here to stay", which clearly it can't, and wont, do.

It was the Fed that really started the commodities bubble by allowing an easy carry trade, and now it is going to have to go in the other direction - bump interest rates up, in which case the US $ will follow.

I think we are about to enter a deflationary period, with the best asset class being cash, and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

slam
11-06-2008, 03:45 PM
You can call me anything, just don't call me That.

......This will affect the Euro - which is the US $ major competitor in terms of a currency.


.........and you can't get better legal tender around the globe better than the US $.

Hi Packers
YEN in both cases imo
This will keep pressure on the US and I think will be the next big mover in currency


Just a thought :O)

Cheers
Slam

dumbass
16-07-2008, 04:34 PM
aud starting to look toppy

theres a lot of fib levels around 98 50 - 98 70

still believe it will have crack at 1 but maybe time for a rest

looking to short from confirmed entry at break of upper trendline

dumbass
24-07-2008, 07:39 AM
price has now corrected starting to look good for going long 96 00 area

dumbass
27-07-2008, 12:07 PM
aud starting to look toppy

theres a lot of fib levels around 98 50 - 98 70

still believe it will have crack at 1 but maybe time for a rest

looking to short from confirmed entry at break of upper trendline


hey peat , key level for aud at moment, technically a close below 2008 up trendline but

needs confirmation.

i was shaping up for a long but my feeling is the aussie is going to break to the downside

which should give some good pips, may bounce of here but i'm starting to see dollar bullish

signs across the majors. which may mean 98 was the top looks like a terminal wedge

pattern

any thoughts

peat
27-07-2008, 09:28 PM
agree that its a key level... on the daily its done a 78% retracement of the last leg up so that the gartley trade would be to buy with @ 9565 with stop at 9470 target 9710 ...so thats risk 95 for 145 gain... not that I'm doing that trade but its the way I see it. and of course if it broke 9470 that would be a failed gartely and turn into a bearish scenario

on the weekly tho the trend line could be a bit lower than you suggest?

using Netdania for the weekly and it sets the lines of the lows precisely.

dumbass
28-07-2008, 10:06 AM
i suppose it can be a subjective issue , personally i would draw the trendline on the

monthly slightly higher to have an overshoot and catch the recent action but it leads

to a greater chance of a false break .

your trendline is more conservative

ha ha peat conservative ??

im watching gartley

thanks peat appreciate it

roddy
04-08-2008, 02:52 PM
Hi All

have a tentative long on this one,as hrly is bouncing off.9285
long at .9327 with a stop below .9300

arco
04-08-2008, 06:10 PM
HI Roddy

Yes certainly worth watching for the turnaround / reversal pattern
to appear

rgds - arco

speres
04-08-2008, 08:16 PM
hey people, first post. Certainly don't like calling those bottoms especially on a down trend like this one.....

arco
04-08-2008, 09:01 PM
Welcome speres


Idea is don't try to catch the falling knife - just wait for
a confirming reversal before committing.

rgds - arco

roddy
04-08-2008, 09:16 PM
Hi Speres,

welcome and i will look forward to your posts!

roddy

speres
05-08-2008, 05:36 AM
Arco, couldnt agree more.

Hopefully I can add some value Roddy.

peat
05-08-2008, 07:42 AM
The RBA will announce its rate decision at 2.30pm AEST

roddy
05-08-2008, 09:02 AM
hI Peat,

Yes that could be interesting,Re my long i held for 4 hrs but wasn't going anywhere,so exited

for a small loss on 1 lot

cheers
roddy

peat
05-08-2008, 03:47 PM
better a small loss than a large one Roddy


The central bank today left its key official rate unchanged 7.25%, as widely expected, at its regular monthly board meeting.

AMR
07-08-2008, 10:26 AM
Wow. Long term trend change or a mere correction? I thought my feed was buggy but no, it has fallen 500 pips since I last checked.

arco
07-08-2008, 02:59 PM
>>>>>>>>>>>>

Yes, quite a move......maybe 9852 was the upper limit for a while.

Anyway I think we should see a reversal of sorts between now and .9000,
so there could be an little opp against the current trend.

rgds - arco

AMR
22-08-2008, 12:12 PM
What does your fibonacci/patterns say...I'm keen to go long now and take advantage of the commodity retracement. Some overhead resistance at .9000.

arco
22-08-2008, 01:34 PM
Hello AMR

You don't say if this is a short term trade that you have in mind.

My present thoughts are for slightly higher to 8820-50, then a potential retrace south. The structure looks a bit like a Bear Flag on the 1 hr.

Fill me in on your idea - I'll see if I can be more helpful.

rgds - arco

dumbass
22-08-2008, 01:52 PM
hi amr , im with arco and expect a new low for aus quite soon

what was interesting with this counter rally ( dollar weakness) was the fact that the kiwi

was first out the blocks and therefore could be the first to signal renewed dollar strength

so im positioning to short but not yet

AMR
22-08-2008, 08:31 PM
Was actually looking for a longer term trade...I think the USD needs to retest the lows eventually. I was thinking it has simply fallen too hard and fast like back during when subprime first broke out in August 07, but heck that's not strictly TA.

arco
22-08-2008, 09:30 PM
Hello AMR

Well the action reached a max of 8813 and has dropped as expected -90 pips so far.

I'm not really a long term player, and long term is not always clear unless I can see a definite pattern in the charts.

There are no BFs or Gartley on the longer term charts, but from the current action I think there is more chance of downside certainly for medium term.

There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low) and there is also an uptrend line around 8300-8350, so lets see what happens if it drops to those levels.

rgds - arco

peat
23-08-2008, 08:46 AM
Elliotwave.com are offering free currency week this week. all their intraday releases etc are available till the 27th. any technical traders should really check this out.
For this particular cross jim martens has been sceptical of the recovery and believes all the risk is to the downside with support at 8592

AUDUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 22 2008 11:58AM ET / Aug 22 2008 3:58PM GMT
Last Price: .8687

[Lower, to below .8592]
Key levels: 0.8813


No change here as I can't overlook the corrective nature of the recovery from .8592 to just above .8800 and the impulsive nature of the subsequent fall. The low remains vulnerable.

Repeat:

I've been skeptical of the recovery in AUD$ since last week when the initial leg of the rise unfolded in a corrective manner. Looking at the chart you can see that when measured from the low extreme of the proposed triangle correction the two upward legs of the recovery are equal. From a pattern and measurement perspective I believe the recovery from .8592 is 1) corrective and 2) likely complete.

So the risk is to the downside. Shorter term still, the decline from .8813 looks like it will unfold in five waves. Three waves are clearly visible. Expect a fourth wave correction/consolidation in wave four followed by a fifth wave. Expect AUD$ to remain under pressure.

Jim Martens

arco
23-08-2008, 09:28 AM
Peat

Thanks for the info on Elliotwave.com

I joined up for the free trial and my user-name is recognised on the home page, but I cant
seem to find the link to the free forecasts. Can you tell me where you go.
(I seem to have tried every page without success).

Thanks

arco

peat
23-08-2008, 09:46 AM
i floundered for a while too

if you're already logged on this link should work

http://www.elliottwave.com/subscribers/default.aspx?view=subs

you're looking for this

arco
23-08-2008, 09:54 AM
Thanks Peat

Still a problem......I'm logged in but I get this under subscribers.

arco
23-08-2008, 10:18 AM
Ok ....re-booted the computer and its working (for now :))

Thanks Peat.

Bilo
26-08-2008, 11:39 AM
Elliotwave.com are offering free currency week this week. all their intraday releases etc are available till the 27th. any technical traders should really check this out.
For this particular cross jim martens has been sceptical of the recovery and believes all the risk is to the downside with support at 8592

AUDUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 22 2008 11:58AM ET / Aug 22 2008 3:58PM GMT
Last Price: .8687

[Lower, to below .8592]
Key levels: 0.8813


No change here as I can't overlook the corrective nature of the recovery from .8592 to just above .8800 and the impulsive nature of the subsequent fall. The low remains vulnerable.

Repeat:

I've been skeptical of the recovery in AUD$ since last week when the initial leg of the rise unfolded in a corrective manner. Looking at the chart you can see that when measured from the low extreme of the proposed triangle correction the two upward legs of the recovery are equal. From a pattern and measurement perspective I believe the recovery from .8592 is 1) corrective and 2) likely complete.

So the risk is to the downside. Shorter term still, the decline from .8813 looks like it will unfold in five waves. Three waves are clearly visible. Expect a fourth wave correction/consolidation in wave four followed by a fifth wave. Expect AUD$ to remain under pressure.

Jim Martens


Now below .86 where now?

arco
26-08-2008, 11:58 AM
Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco
http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/1948.gif

Bilo
26-08-2008, 12:19 PM
Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco
http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/1948.gif

Thanks arco, it has been following the EUR/USD a bit lately and if is that a head and shoulder that I see on the weekly maybe the call is for more rapid south....

Bilo
26-08-2008, 12:38 PM
Bilo

Please refer to post #80 where I mentioned

"There could be some support coming in around 8576 (Jan low)"

I think we need to wait to see how the action responds to this old support. If the polarity changes - watch out below.

arco
http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/1948.gif

Bloomberg today:

Australia's dollar slid toward a four-month low and New Zealand's dollar fell to its lowest in more than a week versus the yen on speculation American International Group Inc. will post a loss, spurring investors to reduce so-called carry trades. The Australian dollar dropped to its lowest in seven months against the U.S. currency on prospects the nation's central bank will cut interest rates from a 12-year high next week.
``I'm concerned the Australian dollar can't bounce from here and we have more downside to come,'' said Paul Milton (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Paul+Milton&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), chief foreign-exchange dealer at Societe Generale SA in Sydney. ``The fundamental picture is looking shaky for the Australian dollar and we're staring at rate cuts.''
The Australian dollar fell 1.6 percent, the most since Aug. 13, to 93.83 yen as of 10:26 a.m. in Sydney, from 95.34 yen late in Asia yesterday. The currency, known as the Aussie, reached 93.57 yen, near the 93.15 yen low on Aug. 13, the weakest level since April 15.
The Aussie dropped 1.2 percent to 85.76 U.S. cents from 86.85 cents. It reached 85.64 cents, the weakest since Jan. 23. It will slide toward 83 cents in the next few weeks, Milton said.

peat
31-08-2008, 10:15 PM
Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:56:20 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: .8801
Support: .8710, .8650, .8590, .7950
Resistance: .8850, .8950, .9075, .9370

The recent plunge offers evidence a top is in place. A recovery in three waves might offer a whale of an opportunity.

Repeat:

The advance from .4776 looks corrective and is well into the target area for a correction. First, it has exceeded the upper end of the prior fourth wave. Second, the rise has pushed into the Fibo target area. But that does not mean the rally is complete. But I do believe it is maturing.

The next set of targets lie in the .9840-1.00 area

peat
31-08-2008, 10:23 PM
Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:05:01 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: .8801
Support: .8710, .8650, .8590, .7950
Resistance: .8850, .8950, .9075, .9370

[Approaching a bottom]
As stated previously the decline from .9850 may be just the first leg of a larger movement, but the decline does appear stretched and a rally attempt should not come as a surprise. Based on the current low extreme even a correction could result in a return to the low .90s.

"If a the diagonal scenario is correct AUD$ should return to the .8500 area, for starters."

arco
02-09-2008, 10:20 AM
David Uren, Economics correspondent | September 02, 2008


TODAY'S expected interest rate cut may be the last for some time, with the best business profits in five years and rapidly rising returns from the resources boom showing the economy is in much better shape than the Reserve Bank thought possible as recently as three weeks ago.
The Reserve board is almost locked into a decision to cut the official rate by 0.25 percentage points today, following public comments from senior bank officials declaring the inflation threat had eased, and the minutes of the last meeting warning of a deepening downturn unless rates were lowered.
Kevin Rudd yesterday claimed credit for creating the conditions for the rate cut, which would be the first since December 2001.
"If you are able to bring into balance your fiscal policy with your monetary policy, and you ensure you have got the right settings overall, you make the job of the Reserve Bank easier in terms of bringing interest rates down over time," the Prime Minister said.
A quarter of a point cut would lower the official rate to 7 per cent and standard mortgage rates to about 9.35 per cent, shaving $54 from the monthly cost of servicing a standard $300,000 mortgage.
Brendan Nelson said the state of the economy was so serious the Reserve Bank should double the expected rate cut to 0.5 basis points.
"We're now in an environment where clearly our economy, while it has strong fundamentals, is slowing very sharply. Australians are paying for that with their jobs," the Opposition Leader said.
The latest official figures show no signs of a downturn. Pre-tax profits, which showed little growth in the first nine months of the financial year, leaped ahead in the June quarter, rising by 22 per cent. The biggest contributor to the gain was the windfall profits of the big iron ore and coal miners, which raised mining profits by 33 per cent.
Profits were strong in other sectors: manufacturing up 17.3 per cent, construction up 21.8 per cent, retail trade up 17 per cent and business services up almost 40 per cent.
The ANZ's head of Australian economics, Warren Hogan, said the profit figures, coming after the forecasts last week for a 33 per cent surge in business investment this year, revealed the economy was in much better health than the financial markets believed.
He noted the financial markets were still expecting today's interest rate cut to be followed by a further two cuts this year, and another two or three rate cuts in 2009. "With inflation over 4 per cent, and growth not likely to be lower than 3 per cent, financial conditions are going to have to remain reasonably tight over the next six to 12 months," Mr Hogan said. "This means the market's expectation of 100 to 150 basis points of rate cuts is going to be disappointed."
Cash is pouring through the economy from the resources boom, which resulted in Australia's first quarterly trade surplus since 2002.
The $559 million surplus in the June quarter contrasted with a record $7.3 billion deficit in the March quarter, and was the result of new contracts for coal and iron ore exports.
The Reserve Bank's index of commodity prices, released yesterday, shows a 7 per cent increase in August, following a 3.3per cent lift in July, with rising prices for coking and thermal coal offsetting falls in gold, copper and aluminium.
The strength of the business sector has surprised the Reserve Bank as well as financial markets.
The bank's quarterly review of the economy, released three weeks ago, said that although mining would remain strong, "slower growth in domestic demand and continuing cost pressures, particularly high oil prices, may dampen growth in non-mining profits".
The bank expected strong forecasts for business investment in the March survey would be revised down in June, instead of which they rose sharply.
The quarterly survey suggested the bank did not expect an early boost to the economy from the terms of trade, saying its "stimulatory effects will take some time to feed through to the broader economy".
The Reserve Bank places heavy weight on the feedback from its business liaison program, and also uses the National Australia Bank's survey.
Both have highlighted a collapse in business confidence and weakening trading conditions, particularly in the June quarter, which are at odds with the official results.


http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24279574-643,00.html

dumbass
03-09-2008, 05:42 PM
enough is enough

butterfly h1

jumping the gun but looks like a morning star


potential long ?

dumbass
04-09-2008, 07:23 AM
h1 suggesting bottom just maybe in

morning star followed by a hammer and a double bottom at 8213

rsi divergence

butterfly

i'm long from stop buy at 83 sl 82 target 88

daily will print a good hammer as well

dumbass
05-09-2008, 09:34 AM
stopped out at breakeven

100 pips up at one stage but prefer to be generous with stop , which is all well and good

until you get stopped for nada .

the move up was like pushing **** up hill , looks to me like the path of least resistance is

still down.

arco
05-09-2008, 11:16 AM
DB

In a situation like that I usually like to make the stop at least +5,
so you do get something for your trouble - albeit a minuscule amount.

arco

dumbass
05-09-2008, 12:17 PM
that put a smile on my face.

its a hard business sometimes , i put alot work in on the aud trade , set a stop and wake up to find stopped out

then on the other hand couldnt be bothered to stay up for boe

put a lazy stop sell and bingo

AMR
09-09-2008, 12:14 PM
In a confirmed downtrend still but RSI giving off a bullish divergence. I looked further back and there is a trading range between 0.8 and 0.7674 (August Lows) which should provide some support.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=49

arco
09-09-2008, 12:46 PM
.

Bigger picture shows a potential support area from old resistance and the UT line

AMR
11-09-2008, 08:49 PM
That support area seems to have gone. Short at 7960, sl at 8035.

dumbass
12-09-2008, 09:44 AM
short on evening star and trendline resistance

80 50 sl 81 00 target new low

AMR
12-09-2008, 11:55 AM
I've gone for a similar trade, fading the rallies in the downtrend. Short at 8034 sl at 8105.

dumbass
12-09-2008, 04:16 PM
anxiety level increasing with every short , the dollar will uncoil dramatically to relieve massive overbought levels.
but still got to go from the short side !

AMR
12-09-2008, 04:25 PM
anxiety level increasing with every short , the dollar will uncoil dramatically to relieve massive overbought levels.
but still got to go from the short side !

Feel the same way here, I still think the support level has broken. Or has it not?:D:D Was 60 pips up in the last trade but got stopped out for -75. If I had trailed the stop it would have been -20.

dumbass
12-09-2008, 06:22 PM
our last hope amr is this count

2 nd wave correction now complete and 3 rd wave should start , like kind of NOW

dumbass
12-09-2008, 10:48 PM
loss 50 pips

counts nicely as 5 waves up on h1 now

if 3 wave correction and 79 remains intact , its a long

AMR
21-09-2008, 10:34 PM
In a confirmed downtrend still but RSI giving off a bullish divergence. I looked further back and there is a trading range between 0.8 and 0.7674 (August Lows) which should provide some support.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/picture.php?albumid=5&pictureid=49

The price has now broken above the trend following setup I did early last week so it's a long. Looking for a pullback to enter on.

dumbass
30-09-2008, 09:21 PM
just to show hoop im not going soft.

2 positions long 100+ 110+

aud has rallied in 5 waves and corrected in 3 with a nice hammer bottom at the 78.6.

rsi divergence in oversold territory on h1

this could be the start of a good move higher.

arco
01-10-2008, 08:27 AM
.

Yeah - no point in going soft.............especially through the night :D

GTA - arco

dumbass
01-10-2008, 11:35 AM
now thats just greedy !!

arco
01-10-2008, 11:58 AM
.
I was blissfully unaware of its extremes as I explored the land of nod.

......................Nice to wake up to such a pleasant and greedy surprise. :)

miner
01-10-2008, 12:36 PM
Waking up to find you made money in your sleep is always nice,some surprisingly nice moves this week,thought it may have been a bit more mental,having another bite of usd/jpy,long on this U.

Cheers
Miner

AMR
01-10-2008, 01:26 PM
Wow these signals are odd.

EW gives a long on AUD/USD, yet a short on the EUR/USD. Wouldn't it effectively be a AUD/EUR position?

arco
01-10-2008, 01:49 PM
AMR

Lets see your Aussie chart count so that we can try to figure out the problem

arco

AMR
01-10-2008, 01:56 PM
Oh, I was actually referring to the conversation you had with dumbass and your attachment.

AMR
07-10-2008, 09:07 PM
I can't believe I was going to go long on this a few days ago. 5 years of reading about the china boom and high commodity prices are playing with my TA.

Is this major trend change in the AUD pointing to a hard landing for the BRIC nations?

peat
04-11-2008, 02:18 PM
I've been trading a bit today. A few positives under the belt already -someimtes using the ichimoku cloud as a target zone.

Heres a gartley on the 15min. IPO 6755. Currently +30

peat
04-11-2008, 03:38 PM
well this hasnt helped

RBA Surprises Mkt With 75bp Cash Rate Cut

dont have the strength of my convictions against that 'force majeur' so took the opportunity on the bounce to get out at -10.

(further evidence for the notion that posting a trade almost always ruins it)

AMR
04-11-2008, 03:57 PM
Darn....

I was short earlier but took the first 20 pips of a 120 pip move. Me and my excessive trade tinkering...should have just left the dam thing.

peat
11-03-2009, 10:08 AM
Boral said it will convert US$500m of its US$700m term credit facility to Australian dollars, the currency in which it expects most future funding requirements from the facility to be incurred.



I guess thats chicken feed in the big scheme of things

Steve
10-04-2009, 05:36 PM
Has just tried to break above 7200 for the 3rd day (mon,thurs,fri) this week and may be failing again. If so, any thoughts on where to from here? Back down to 7050?

Steve
13-04-2009, 10:24 AM
It actually broke thru 7200 on opening this morning. If it holds above 7200, it still needs to get above 7270 to kick on...

peat
04-07-2009, 01:50 PM
The July issue of Currency Trader Magazine is out.

There is an article about the Aussie and Kiwi currencies and it says



"Where do the Aussie and kiwi dollars stand now? Both currencies entered consolidations after their early-June highs, and some analysts speculate the currencies may have overshot to the upside and are due for a modest correction in the near-term. Market watchers also cite rumors the RBA has been active in the market in a way that could influence the Aussie dollar’s near-term direction. “There’s a lot of talk that the RBA was in the market above the 0.8000 level, selling Australian dollars vs. the U.S,” says Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

“The RBA has been scaling up its sales of Aussie dollar in order to lift its FX reserves,” says Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac Institutional Bank. “It’s a handy signal for long-term players, since the RBA’s average levels where it buys AUD/USD are a lot lower than where it sells. They were good size sellers in May (

AU$15 billion). The message for markets, semi-hidden though it is, is that if the RBA regards the low 0.8000s as a cheap level to buy U.S. dollars, perhaps it’s on to something and maybe 0.7000 will trade before 0.9000.”

In the short term, “both the Aussie and New Zealand dollar
remain highly correlated to global risk sentiment and the
China view,”

arco
05-07-2009, 11:46 AM
Possibility ? Hard to know exactly where the reversal sout might happen, but looks like a potential opportunity.

DB mightbe able to give us an EW count?



http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/c66e3d5b0b.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

peat
05-07-2009, 08:06 PM
max reckons .86 so hes in pretty close agreement with your projected chart arco.
not hard to see that 5 waves up on your chart either (with the projection included) .... tho I am not sure that we are meant to see 5 waves

arco
06-07-2009, 09:58 AM
max reckons .86 so hes in pretty close agreement with your projected chart arco.
not hard to see that 5 waves up on your chart either (with the projection included) .... tho I am not sure that we are meant to see 5 waves

Yes, I'll have to check to see if there are any possibly irregularities on B waves. DB might assist.

arco
06-07-2009, 02:12 PM
This B wave looks vaguely similar

http://www.market-harmonics.com/images/Elliott%20Primer/dj2132.gifhttp://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm

peat
06-07-2009, 02:30 PM
oh dear
arco
what are you saying !! ;)

I've been reading the EWI stuff I've subscribed to last week over the weekend and I've now asked the girl to hide all the sharp instruments in the house as I am starting to feel a bit suicidal.
They really are super bearish and subscribe to the 'Its All One Market' theory (including gold , tho they do admit it may hold up better than other commodities), so theres nowhere to hide except cash.

peat
07-07-2009, 07:13 AM
looks like a hammer about to form. already have a big position from .79

peat
07-07-2009, 07:55 PM
kept adding in to the retracement tonight , now starting to pay off.

dumbass
12-07-2009, 06:58 PM
Yes, I'll have to check to see if there are any possibly irregularities on B waves. DB might assist.

hi guys , corrections are always bitches to count but it looks to me like a big B/2 wave.

without wanting to confuse here's how im counting it and maybe a top is in on this wave.

flat correction labelled wave W then X wave then Y wave zig zag.

A bit more simple TA indicates trend line break and looks like 77.28 is under pressure.

close to a short ?

Max is still picking a final leg higher !

macduffy
25-07-2009, 12:40 PM
Interesting take on the AUD here.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/dorsch/jul222009.html

peat
26-07-2009, 08:54 PM
Interesting take on the AUD here.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/dorsch/jul222009.html (http://www.kitco.com/ind/dorsch/jul222009.html)

respekt to the RBA :cool:
they made 20c, thats 2000 pips , on 3 bill.

dumbass
11-08-2009, 06:27 PM
hi arco , saw your post on elliot thread .
try this as a possibilty one more wave higher into 85 -86 for completion.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/enbwecwq.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=enbwecwq.jpg)

arco
11-08-2009, 07:04 PM
hi arco , saw your post on elliot thread .
try this as a possibility one more wave higher into 85 -86 for completion.



Thanks DB - the action seems to be on its last legs, ready for a nice fall.

arco

dumbass
13-08-2009, 02:39 PM
hi arco , very interested to hear your comments on aud usd and cussie nzd.
post fed rally has created some nice bearish entrys with risk defined at recent highs but im still thinking one final rally.
nice count on eur usd 5 down and currently retracing in 3 waves
thanks paul

arco
13-08-2009, 03:00 PM
hi arco , very interested to hear your comments on aud usd and cussie nzd.
post fed rally has created some nice bearish entrys with risk defined at recent highs but im still thinking one final rally.
nice count on eur usd 5 down and currently retracing in 3 waves
thanks paul

Hi Paul

I want to get on Aussie for a short once I see a little more confirmation, and it does look like the action is floundering now with a maximum high being in the grey box area (weekly chart) where multiple Kumo resistance lies. Chikou (green) could also be repulsed by the Kumo edge. Lying in wait ready to pounce.

I'll review Kiwi and put it on the NZD.USD thread

arco

.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/8e5f8762a6.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

peat
01-09-2009, 10:35 AM
1 September 2009
Reserve Bank Board Meeting, Sydney
Outcome of Board Meeting (2.30 pm AEST)

thats 4:30 our time.

almost certainly no change.... but interest will be in the words.

arco
01-09-2009, 04:06 PM
.

Could that be a Gartley lurking in the wings?


http://i32.tinypic.com/2u7lglx.gif

arco
29-09-2009, 01:40 PM
I missed this short term bullish BF on the Aussie last night which was good for circa 150 pips.
I had earlier spotted a potential H&S formation (purple line) which turned out to be a bear trap. :eek:

Always pays to wait for more confirmation

http://i38.tinypic.com/2qta9lw.gif

peat
06-10-2009, 11:06 AM
Reserve Bank Board Meeting outcome announced 2.30 pm- Australian time. so given Australia apart from QLD started daylight saving this last weekend thats 4:30 PM NZ time.

peat
06-10-2009, 04:09 PM
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2009/mr-09-23.html

the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent, effective 7 October 2009

peat
08-10-2009, 08:06 PM
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/interest-rate-RBA-hike-Gittins-Mitchell-pd20091007-WL6C8?OpenDocument&src=kgb

Alan Kohler discusses the RBA leakage...

and concludes...
"Alternatively – just leak to Business Spectator, which always publishes immediately, and then I’ll shut up about it! "

If you had the wink
would you trade???
how would you hide it ?

peat
15-10-2009, 08:09 PM
oh another business spectator link, sorry if thats repetitive
but here Robert Gottliebsen says the Aussie will go to 108 ~
so thats about 1600 pips away.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-drive-behind-the-Aussie-dollar-pd20091015-WTU6X?OpenDocument&src=kgb

arco
25-10-2009, 08:42 PM
Aussie looking interesting for a short - 4 Ichi elements in place on H1 plus potential H&S.

http://i38.tinypic.com/106kplk.gif

dumbass
26-10-2009, 08:05 AM
morning arco , i have been following aussie for a while and i agree it looks like complete wave pattern has printed.
possible ending diagonal has completed in fifth wave with a reasonable 3 wave subdivision of the 5 wave diagonal with an under shoot on the 5 th wave.
how are you going to play your entry can we do better than a break of 91.80 or more conservatively 91.12



http://iforce.co.nz/i/iriscd24.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=iriscd24.jpg)



http://iforce.co.nz/i/1cqxq0uf.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=1cqxq0uf.jpg)

arco
26-10-2009, 08:18 AM
morning arco , i have been following aussie for a while and i agree it looks like complete wave pattern has printed.
possible ending diagonal has completed in fifth wave with a reasonable 3 wave subdivision of the 5 wave diagonal with an under shoot on the 5 th wave.
how are you going to play your entry can we do better than a break of 91.80 or more conservatively 91.12



Morning DB

If the forex gods are kind to us a reversal candle pattern below the DT line / bearish Kumo would seem to be the optimum entry to maximise profits - although perhaps a little more risky than a neckline break.

http://i34.tinypic.com/4g68hc.gif

dumbass
26-10-2009, 04:05 PM
evening star on h1 should do for the green light to look for a short entry.


http://iforce.co.nz/i/elfwtgsz.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=elfwtgsz.jpg)

Bilo
26-10-2009, 09:34 PM
In Oz and watching but it is hard to see this baby goig backwards for long. Too many picking next pause will be equity...

arco
27-10-2009, 08:05 AM
Performed as expected (see yesterday chart)

I've taken some off at +110 off and let a few running.

http://i36.tinypic.com/21o9d7d.gif

Bilo
27-10-2009, 08:10 AM
Performed as expected (see yesterday chart)

I've taken some off at +110 off and let a few running.


Well done Arco - lesser mortals stand in awe.

dumbass
27-10-2009, 08:21 PM
second short position on aud.
evening star on upper channel line should hopefully take price much lower around 90.40 area.
http://iforce.co.nz/i/bimwevzy.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=bimwevzy.jpg)

arco
28-10-2009, 09:32 AM
I've closed my remaining new short positions taken last night at .9190, and will review the price action as the day goes on.


Thinking ahead that there may be the possibility of a larger Head and Shoulders forming (New slatted purple line .9125 would be the neckline). I’ve left the old SHS letters in place, and put the new potential Shoulders in red print/yellow spot.If this pattern plays out there could be another 100-200 pips to be gathered.


http://i38.tinypic.com/35ja3k8.gif

peat
28-10-2009, 12:48 PM
Australia 3Q CPI +1.0% On Qtr; Consensus +0.9%
Australia 3Q CPI +1.3% On Yr; Consensus +1.2%
Australia 3Q RBA Trimmed Mean CPI +0.8% On Qtr
Australia 3Q RBA Weighted Median CPI +0.8% On Qtr

heh I had a sell order in at 9197 from last night and it just got triggered before the news giving me 60 pips for lunch!

peat
28-10-2009, 07:33 PM
I've been seeing a lot of perfect wave counts as the Aussie goes down.

amp
28-10-2009, 08:13 PM
i got owned lol... went short at 9080 just when it decided to turn around... damn you forex

dumbass
28-10-2009, 09:37 PM
second short position on aud.
evening star on upper channel line should hopefully take price much lower around 90.40 area.


ive had enough as well peat , aussie hit target for 200+ and another lot 160+
have a good weekend see you next week.

arco
28-10-2009, 10:10 PM
i got owned lol... went short at 9080 just when it decided to turn around... damn you forex

Your stop was probably a bit too skinny. Maybe try reducing your trade quantity slightly and widening your stop a little. That will give you a bit more manoeuvring space.

Bilo
28-10-2009, 11:17 PM
I am with you on the big dipper Arco.
Good Luck

arco
29-10-2009, 09:26 AM
I am with you on the big dipper Arco.
Good Luck

Thats another carton of beer you owe me :D

I left my trade on overnight for 140 pips

Nevl
30-10-2009, 02:32 PM
Good bounce after the US GDP. But trending down again slowly. Lots of talk about it heading back towards the 0.95. Will be interesting to say the least. Thanks for all your work Arco. It's nice to sit back and watch a master at work.

Bilo
09-11-2009, 09:13 AM
I haven't seen the AUD/USD gap before. Plus 30 + points is this real or just my view?

Nevl
09-11-2009, 09:19 AM
I haven't seen the AUD/USD gap before. Plus 30 + points is this real or just my view?

The Kiwi gap was more impressive. And the Euro also Gapped by about 30pips

peat
09-11-2009, 10:26 AM
it moved up quickly but didnt really gap....

peat
25-11-2009, 01:56 PM
setting up for a fall ?

peat
26-11-2009, 07:21 PM
went further than my previous post anticipated but now, on the hourly we clearly have 5 waves down followed by an a-b-c creating a perfect gartly where a = c shown by the cyan lines being duplicates of one another.

miner
26-11-2009, 09:58 PM
Good call peat,bugger didn't see it till now,all charted up now tho and watching the daily trend line,had a ripper run on the beast from last night tho :-).

Cheers
Miner

dumbass
13-12-2009, 08:44 AM
audusd could be setting up for a short.

if price action retraced up to the trendline,it would set up a bearish gartley which could be the start of a third wave of a third wave.

however retracement could be already over and price is moving down from here.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/s2ov0kul.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=s2ov0kul.jpg)

Silverlight
14-01-2010, 12:46 PM
Australia's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 5.5% in December from 5.6% in November. The number of employed rose 35,200, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 5.8% in December, with the number of employed up 10,000.

The number of people in full-time work rose 7,300 to 7.64 million in December, from
7.63 million, while the number of people in part-time work rose 27,900 to 3.27 million
from 3.24 million.

The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work was 65.2% in December unchanged from 65.2% in November.


AUD jumped 40 pips on that.

Ayrton
14-01-2010, 02:20 PM
Can any one explain to me, if it can be, why just after the announcement on job data this afternoon it fell sharply (1min chart) before jumping 40 pips? when it was good news?

Cheers

Silverlight
14-01-2010, 04:23 PM
A combination of two things stop orders and a wide spread.

At one point the spread was 20 pips, which can skew the chart, stop orders were in place in case the annuncement was negative and big traders will try to trigger a few themselves then then create a domino effect and allow them to pick up more on the cheap and take the price back up.

arco
16-01-2010, 03:26 PM
Can any one explain to me, if it can be, why just after the announcement on job data this afternoon it fell sharply (1min chart) before jumping 40 pips? when it was good news?

Cheers

I think people soon realised most of the extra jobs were only part time and not full time. We discussed this as a potential short on the blog several days prior to the announcement

miner
16-02-2010, 09:01 PM
Last couple of hourly candles interesting.

Cheers
Miner

peat
28-07-2010, 12:52 PM
Falling. Out. Of. Bed

winner69
28-07-2010, 01:08 PM
Did that coincide with the CPI ann .... lower than forecast so rate increase unlikely tomorrow

AUD/NZD spiked as well

Bloody speculators got it wrong this time

peat
28-07-2010, 01:25 PM
Did that coincide with the CPI ann .... lower than forecast so rate increase unlikely tomorrow


I guess so
happened exactly at 13:30 NZTime

peat
21-08-2010, 10:35 PM
68 seats each , 76 required

20 pip spread on Oanda (which allows trading over the weekend) thats twice the usual out of hours spread.

peat
23-08-2010, 07:06 AM
even with that 20 pip spread - it would've still been worth slamming a short in over the weekend. dropped a hundred pips pronto as soon as official trading began

peat
19-10-2010, 08:14 PM
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Australian-dollar-greenback-USD-AUD-ASX-economy-pd20101018-ABRVZ?OpenDocument&src=kgb

ShawnL
30-01-2011, 04:38 PM
Let's have a bigger picture view on the AUD... technically,

AUDUSD 4H

http://img52.imageshack.us/i/jan31au4houtlook.png/

Price is still in an upper consolidation since starman45's previously posted chart, and there wasn't clear break of the major up trend line. We do have a Head and Shoulders pattern with 0.9828 as neckline. Also, a bearish Gartley pattern formed the right shoulder is still in play. If price breaks 0.9828, we have further Gartley continuation and possibly the trend might turn; am looking to short on breakdown-retest of 0.9828, stop around 0.9908, first target at 0.9650.

On the upside, am watching the 0.9974 level, slightly below the shoulders but has more S/R significance. If price breaks 0.9974 and had a clear retest, am looking to long with stop around 0.9894, provided there is enough room to move till 1.0179, the double top pattern.

Don't know when will happen, but at the moment, am sitting on the bench on Aussie dollar. May even continue to consolidate in the 0.9828 - 0.9974 range which I have no interest to be in the market.

Will update here if any break of either sides.

Cheers (:

Zorrro
01-02-2011, 05:28 PM
Have deployed a Small short AUd USD at 1.0025 and will scale in add ons from higher - lets see

Good Luck to us all

rgds
Zorrro

dragonz
01-02-2011, 05:47 PM
Hi Zorro. I have a long on this one from Friday. Early Monday trading it got to within 2 pips of my stop since then has been rebounding. looking at a tartget around 1.0060ish but usually review this as it gets closer. My EUR/USD long from monday is also still open . Finally creaked through the ceiling. + 210 pips on the open trades so far but as you know things can reverse very quickly.

Zorrro
01-02-2011, 07:40 PM
Some levels that may help or hinder

Cable
CEILING: 1.6186
MOB 1.6053
LOC: 1.6009
FLOOR: 1.5886

Gold
CEILING: 1350.89
MOB 1336.79
LOC: 1333.33
FLOOR: 1320.59

AUD/JPY
CEILING: 83.28
MOB 82.17
LOC: 81.95
FLOOR: 81.15

EUR/AUD
CEILING: 1.3868
MOB 1.3741
LOC: 1.3701
FLOOR: 1.3611


EUR/USD
CEILING: 1.3777
MOB 1.3719
LOC: 1.3698
FLOOR: 1.3636

AUD/USD
CEILING: 1.0121
MOB 1.0016
LOC: 0.9999
FLOOR: 0.9909

OIL march
CEILING: 93.65
MOB 92.13
LOC: 91.09
FLOOR: 88.89

BRENT OIL march
CEILING: 102.65
MOB 101.11
LOC: 99.95
FLOOR: 98.65


USD/CHF
CEILING: 0.9520
MOB 0.9434
LOC: 0.9408
FLOOR: 0.9329

NZD USD
CEILING: 77.98
MOB 77.35
LOC: 77.01
FLOOR: 76.58

CHF/JPY
CEILING: 88.18
MOB 87.23
LOC: 86.98
FLOOR: 86.22


EUR/JPY
CEILING: 113.65
MOB 112.60
LOC: 112.25
FLOOR: 111.65

GBP/JPY
CEILING: 133.84
MOB 131.84
LOC: 131.35
FLOOR: 129.87

DAX
CEILING: 7169.69
MOB 7105.53
LOC: 7080.18
FLOOR: 7022.22


USD /JPY
CEILING: 82.65
MOB 82.04
LOC: 81.88
FLOOR: 81.32

USD/CAD
CEILING: 1.0086
MOB 1.0003
LOC: 0.9920
FLOOR: 0.9865

FTSE
CEILING: 5980.30
MOB 5896.89
LOC: 5850.55
FLOOR: 5808.08

EUR/GBP
CEILING: 86.35
MOB 85.52
LOC: 85.25
FLOOR: 84.98

SILVER
CEILING: 29.78
MOB 28.54
LOC: 28.12
FLOOR: 27.20

SPX CASH
CEILING: 1300.10
MOB 1287.93
LOC: 1283.25
FLOOR: 1276.75


Hope it helps
rgds

Zorrro
02-02-2011, 10:34 PM
Some Nuumbhas taht may help or Hinder

Cable
CEILING: 1.6247
MOB 1.6173
LOC: 1.6121
FLOOR: 1.6040

Gold
CEILING: 1351.51
MOB 1341.42
LOC: 1338.26
FLOOR: 1328.12

AUD/JPY
CEILING: 82.98
MOB 82.47
LOC: 82.21
FLOOR: 81.88

EUR/AUD
CEILING: 1.5204
MOB 1.5119
LOC: 1.5068
FLOOR: 1.4992


EUR/USD
CEILING: 1.3906
MOB 1.3847
LOC: 1.3818
FLOOR: 1.3786

AUD/USD
CEILING: 1.0189
MOB 1.0124
LOC: 1.0009
FLOOR: 0.9965

OIL march
CEILING: 92.88
MOB 90.82
LOC: 90.41
FLOOR: 88.58

BRENT OIL march
CEILING: 103.80
MOB 102.08
LOC: 101.71
FLOOR: 100.22


USD/CHF
CEILING: 0.9420
MOB 0.9352
LOC: 0.9320
FLOOR: 0.9280

NZD USD
CEILING: 78.77
MOB 78.13
LOC: 77.69
FLOOR: 76.82

CHF/JPY
CEILING: 87.78
MOB 87.14
LOC: 86.98
FLOOR: 86.18


EUR/JPY
CEILING: 113.83
MOB 112.88
LOC: 112.35
FLOOR: 111.80

GBP/JPY
CEILING: 133.55
MOB 131.96
LOC: 131.45
FLOOR: 130.18

DAX
CEILING: 7255.27
MOB 7201.77
LOC: 7196.05
FLOOR: 7122.32


USD /JPY
CEILING: 81.98
MOB 81.52
LOC: 81.35
FLOOR: 81.01

USD/CAD
CEILING: 0.9975
MOB 0.9909
LOC: 0.9890
FLOOR: 0.9811

FTSE
CEILING: 6054.85
MOB 5990.85
LOC: 5975.25
FLOOR: 5909.09


EUR/GBP
CEILING: 86.25
MOB 85.71
LOC: 85.38
FLOOR: 85.17

SILVER
CEILING: 29.02
MOB 28.60
LOC: 28.55
FLOOR: 27.65

SPX CASH
CEILING: 1313.13
MOB 1304.20
LOC: 1301.01
FLOOR: 1288.28

Zorrro
03-02-2011, 09:15 PM
Some Levels that may help or Hinder :idea:

Cable
CEILING: 1.6306
MOB 1.6216
LOC: 1.6186
FLOOR: 1.6099

Gold
CEILING: 1347.03
MOB 1334.79
LOC: 1328.25
FLOOR: 1319.19

AUD/JPY
CEILING: 83.55
MOB 85.59
LOC: 82.35
FLOOR: 81.63

EUR/AUD
CEILING: 1.3807
MOB 1.3677
LOC: 1.3645
FLOOR: 1.3545


EUR/USD
CEILING: 1.3943
MOB 1.3786
LOC: 1.3715
FLOOR: 1.3656

AUD/USD
CEILING: 1.0220
MOB 1.0123
LOC: 1.0101
FLOOR: 0.9999

OIL march
CEILING: 93.05
MOB 91.66
LOC: 91.25
FLOOR: 89.82

BRENT OIL march
CEILING: 104.60
MOB 102.99
LOC: 102.34
FLOOR: 101.11


USD/CHF
CEILING: 0.9498
MOB 0.9422
LOC: 0.9401
FLOOR: 0.9335

NZD USD
CEILING: 78.59
MOB 77.61
LOC: 77.35
FLOOR: 76.69

CHF/JPY
CEILING: 87.45
MOB 86.73
LOC: 86.65
FLOOR: 86.11


EUR/JPY
CEILING: 113.61
MOB 112.83
LOC: 112.45
FLOOR: 111.80

GBP/JPY
CEILING: 134.54
MOB 132.78
LOC: 131.03
FLOOR: 130.35

DAX
CEILING: 7220.27
MOB 7172.17
LOC: 7155.65
FLOOR: 7101.11


USD /JPY
CEILING: 82.35
MOB 81.68
LOC: 81.35
FLOOR: 80.98

USD/CAD
CEILING: 0.9929
MOB 0.9891
LOC: 0.9875
FLOOR: 0.9828

FTSE
CEILING: 6038.21
MOB 5988.91
LOC: 5965.35
FLOOR: 5909.19


EUR/GBP
CEILING: 85.89
MOB 85.27
LOC: 85.11
FLOOR: 84.74

SILVER
CEILING: 29.44
MOB 28.55
LOC: 28.20
FLOOR: 27.55

SPX CASH
CEILING: 1309.98
MOB 1303.09
LOC: 1300.25
FLOOR: 1289.89


Hope it helps
rgds

Zorrro
08-02-2011, 09:13 PM
Some Levels that may help or hinder

Cable
CEILING: 1.6222
MOB 1.6145
LOC: 1.6115
FLOOR: 1.6066

Gold
CEILING: 1365.04
MOB 1354.39
LOC: 1350.11
FLOOR: 1343.43

AUD/JPY
CEILING: 84.28
MOB 83.59
LOC: 83.25
FLOOR: 82.72

EUR/AUD
CEILING: 1.3555
MOB 1.3422
LOC: 1.3398
FLOOR: 1.3313


EUR/USD
CEILING: 1.3709
MOB 1.3624
LOC: 1.3608
FLOOR: 1.3525

AUD/USD
CEILING: 1.0242
MOB 1.0161
LOC: 1.0122
FLOOR: 1.0080

OIL march
CEILING: 88.78
MOB 87.57
LOC: 87.21
FLOOR: 86.78

BRENT OIL march
CEILING: 101.23
MOB 99.69
LOC: 99.20
FLOOR: 98.65


USD/CHF
CEILING: 0.9628
MOB 0.9552
LOC: 0.9521
FLOOR: 0.9465

NZD USD
CEILING: 78.76
MOB 77.38
LOC: 77.01
FLOOR: 76.25

CHF/JPY
CEILING: 86.78
MOB 86.19
LOC: 85.80
FLOOR: 85.35


EUR/JPY
CEILING: 112.88
MOB 112.09
LOC: 111.82
FLOOR: 111.11

GBP/JPY
CEILING: 134.25
MOB 132.84
LOC: 132.25
FLOOR: 131.38

DAX
CEILING: 7329.31
MOB 7285.11
LOC: 7245.18
FLOOR: 7178.78


USD /JPY
CEILING: 82.88
MOB 82.18
LOC: 82.01
FLOOR: 81.66

USD/CAD
CEILING: 0.9954
MOB 0.9903
LOC: 0.9885
FLOOR: 0.9835

FTSE
CEILING: 6080.16
MOB 6043.19
LOC: 6025.30
FLOOR: 6006.01


USD /JPY
CEILING: 82.88
MOB 82.18
LOC: 82.01
FLOOR: 81.66

USD/CAD
CEILING: 0.9954
MOB 0.9903
LOC: 0.9885
FLOOR: 0.9835

FTSE
CEILING: 6080.16
MOB 6043.19
LOC: 6025.30
FLOOR: 6006.01



Hope it helps

ShawnL
14-02-2011, 01:54 PM
AUDUSD D
http://img135.imageshack.us/i/feb14audtrade.png/

AUDUSD 4H
http://img571.imageshack.us/i/feb14au4htrade.png/

Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.


Entry: Long at 1.0028
Stop: 0.9932
Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.
Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.
Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.

ShawnL
16-02-2011, 01:20 PM
Cut loss at 0.9974 when the 1.0000 support no longer holds. I should have respected the triple top in daily, especially when the top had been formed rather recent.

Am not looking to go short or long at the moment, and I will be sitting on my hands for more structures in the market.


AUDUSD D

Took a long entry based on analysis in earlier post.


Entry: Long at 1.0028
Stop: 0.9932
Risk: 3%, due to the trend has not kick in yet, and we are still in a triangle consolidation in the daily.
Target 1: Previous high of B, 1.0179.
Target 2: 1.0286, confluence of 127.0% and AB=CD completion.

dragonz
17-02-2011, 07:03 AM
I've gone long @ 1.0002. With a target of 90+ pips but might extend this later in the day.

Also long Eur/USD @ 1.3511 and short NZD/EUR @ .5557.

Im down 80 pips so far this month after being up 920 pips last Month. Still on target for 10% per month if I can sqeeze 250+ pip out of the above 3 crosses.

Zorrro
17-02-2011, 11:54 PM
Some levels that may help or Hinder


Cable
CEILING: 1.6186
MOB 1.6108
LOC: 1.6064
FLOOR: 1.5955

Gold
CEILING: 1388.18
MOB 1378.01
LOC: 1372.35
FLOOR: 1367.68

CHF/JPY
CEILING: 87.87
MOB 87.27
LOC: 86.98
FLOOR: 86.55

BRENT OIL APRIL
CEILING: 105.35
MOB 104.13
LOC: 103.73
FLOOR: 102.88

EUR/USD
CEILING: 13636/1.3656
MOB 1.3582
LOC: 1.3535
FLOOR: 1.3464

AUD/USD
CEILING: 1.0119
MOB 1.0043
LOC: 1.0015
FLOOR: 0.9972

OIL US march
CEILING: 86.99
MOB 85.05
LOC: 84.65
FLOOR: 83.75

OIL US APRIL
CEILING: 91.50
MOB 87.97
LOC: 87.45
FLOOR: 86.23



USD/CHF
CEILING: 0.9708
MOB 0.9586
LOC: 0.9555
FLOOR: 0.9515

NZD USD
CEILING: 76.29
MOB 75.56
LOC: 75.31
FLOOR: 74.86

SILVER
CEILING: 31.89
MOB 30.73
LOC: 30.25
FLOOR: 29.99


EUR/JPY
CEILING: 114.24
MOB 113.50
LOC: 113.21
FLOOR: 112.75

GBP/JPY
CEILING: 136.65
MOB 134.68
LOC: 134.18
FLOOR: 133.65

DAX
CEILING: 7475.75
MOB 7422.65
LOC: 7401.01
FLOOR: 7355.75


USD /JPY
CEILING: 84.18
MOB 83.66
LOC: 83.45
FLOOR: 83.12

USD/CAD
CEILING: 0.9915
MOB 0.9852
LOC: 0.9825
FLOOR: 0.9785

FTSE
CEILING: 6146.63
MOB 6087.83
LOC: 6067.67
FLOOR: 6019.19



EUR/GBP
CEILING: 84.98
MOB 84.34
LOC: 84.11
FLOOR: 83.22

AUD/JPY
CEILING: 84.48
MOB 83.94
LOC: 83.65
FLOOR: 83.11

EUR/AUD
CEILING: 1.3645
MOB 1.3530
LOC: 1.3485
FLOOR: 1.3411


SPX
CEILING: 1339.68
MOB 1334.98
LOC: 1334.42
FLOOR: 1330.12


Hope it Helps
rgds

dragonz
18-02-2011, 07:00 PM
I've gone long @ 1.0002. With a target of 90+ pips but might extend this later in the day.

Also long Eur/USD @ 1.3511 and short NZD/EUR @ .5557.

Im down 80 pips so far this month after being up 920 pips last Month. Still on target for 10% per month if I can sqeeze 250+ pip out of the above 3 crosses.


Closed the Aud/USD pair @ 1.0109 for + 107 pips.

Got stopped out of NZD/EUR for -28 pips bit have now gone long @ .5582.

EUR/USD still open for over 100pips so far but this is a long term play so will see what happens

As for the aud/usd have placed 2 orders. 1 long at 1.048 to target 1.0232, and sell at 1.0091 to target the 1.0007 mark.

Zorrro
18-02-2011, 07:18 PM
GBP/JPY If Trend Change - Looks Nicely BULLISH?? :idea:

http://www.screencast.com/users/navyan/folders/Jing/media/84a90bbc-b2ad-4942-b0c3-cd878922b9e0


Hope it helps
rgds
Zarif

Zorrro
18-02-2011, 07:20 PM
Welldoen Dragonz mate :D Bravo Trading.

Unsure mate If you trade AUd/CAD But if want have a Look at it say on 1hr 4hr etc Time frames has a Beautiful "Butterfly" taht can be netted as a Nice Short :D I am small swing short on this at present :D

Good Luck to us all

rgds

Zorrro
29-03-2011, 07:07 PM
WOW Not one Fx Posting here For now Since 18th Feb 2011 - so some six odd weeks.

Please any who want Give me a shout on Skype : zarif786 (UK) will gladly add you in my Skype room And also I have a noce Google room taht if you want you can join and we can have rapport and discussions and trade and ideas views sharig etc.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/zaktraders

Looking forward to seeing all those atht are interested in Trading Fx, Oil ( Us and Brent) Gold Silver ES FTSE DAX - to mention an few

rgds
Zorrro ( aka zarif)

Zorrro
18-05-2011, 06:00 AM
Our Dedicated Chatroom is now Open

Go to: www.koolpips.com

When get there Click on : Chat Room


No Registration needed or passwords etc


Please use OPERA , Google CHROME , Mozilla Firefox as Internet explorer seems to be playing up ( old scripts)

rgds Zarif

dumbass
26-08-2011, 02:00 PM
if there is any one out there interested , nice short right now on aussie , low risk !

RazorX
26-08-2011, 04:26 PM
Hi guys

Just looking at the charts.... on the 1hr there seems to be a triangle with all moving averages under the price indicating a possible long if the price breaks to the topside?

3558

dumbass
27-08-2011, 08:44 AM
hi razorx , well done hope you got plenty , lost on this one about 70 pips.
was a great set up confirmed with expectation of correction in sp but didnt come off .
nice one

RazorX
27-08-2011, 11:27 AM
Hi Dumbass

A nice, if a somewhat violent breakout! The entry candle (The one that opened above the purple line) moved a whole 84 pips in one hour - Would have been a nice scalp on the lower time frames! The stop (Red line in my image) needed to be placed under my trend indicator (Grey and red line).
Close out this morning with about 60 pips.

All indicators are still confirming a long trade so maybe an opportunity next week to re-enter long?

3564

dragonz
05-09-2011, 05:57 PM
My maths entered me at 1.0574 for a short and looks like a bit of momentum building for a push south

dragonz
06-09-2011, 10:53 AM
My maths entered me at 1.0574 for a short and looks like a bit of momentum building for a push south

Closed short for +49 pips. Currant account and interest rate decisions due today. have an open order for another short at 1.0488 should this fall below this level.

dragonz
07-09-2011, 10:30 AM
Closed short for +49 pips. Currant account and interest rate decisions due today. have an open order for another short at 1.0488 should this fall below this level.

Closed this short for -20 pips.

Entrep
18-09-2011, 10:40 AM
I have a fair bit of USD I want to change to AUD shortly. Any idea when is a good time to do it? Don't need to use the money immediately... but it is sitting there on 0% interest vs around 5% in Oz.

float
22-09-2011, 06:55 AM
Perplexed as to why the aus dollar dropped against the green back after last nights stimulus announcement.... The dow and S&P500 dropped yet the USD rose :confused: I would have thought the aussie dollar would be better off comparatively

What country can print money and increase the value of their currency...

Am I overlooking the obvious?

Pumice
22-09-2011, 09:05 AM
Perplexed as to why the aus dollar dropped against the green back after last nights stimulus announcement.... The dow and S&P500 dropped yet the USD rose :confused: I would have thought the aussie dollar would be better off comparatively

What country can print money and increase the value of their currency...

Am I overlooking the obvious?

Did they print money though? I thought they just rolled over ST maturing debt and bought LT debt?
They are just keeping rates lower for longer arent they?

dumbass
01-02-2012, 06:01 AM
hello and happy new year.

looking to enter short on aud, looks like a correction is commencing which should provide some resonable pips to the downside.

3 wave structure , most likely price will double top with a B wave at 1.0680 ish then should see a C WAVE moving price down , initial target 1.05 .

i wil look to count 5 waves down which should then provide another long opportunity.

short 1.0670 stop 1.0730 target 1.05

peat
02-02-2012, 08:15 PM
hey DA
happy New Year to you too

If you've been stopped out you may want to have another go I reckon... maybe stop just above 760 this time
hard to believe the Aussie is at 1.7

dumbass
02-02-2012, 09:27 PM
hi peat , got stopped at breakeven but still like the short side , 1.0750 should prove resilient, im short from 1.0730 and looking to add if we get some momentum.

i cant quite believe it as well, 25 base rate cut by the rba next week with another 100 in the pipeline and we get vertical takeoff .???

peat
03-02-2012, 06:20 AM
twiggs says the world is preparing for QE3

dumbass
03-02-2012, 04:29 PM
i personally think QE3 is a done deal but will probably be delayed as the equity markets rally in the short term.

a chart of the FEDs monetary base gives a indication of the extent of the reflationary monetary policy of late fighting the deflating economy.

i think LTRO 2 has even exceeded the FED .

you know its all going to end in tears unfortunately it will be our kids tears !


http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/fedbasea.png

dumbass
12-02-2012, 06:55 PM
AUD has been the star performer against all currencies as the risk trade is well and truly back on.

1.20 seems to be the new target against the usd.

im not so bullish and expect it will crash down to earth long before it gets near 1.20

the chart suggests possibly one more wave up to around 1.10 region then an aggresive fall may occurr.

i have a short position on and i may look to go long if channel support holds but the real goal is a long term short position from higher up.

if this correction gains traction then i will scale more shorts in, 1.04 key.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/audh4.jpg

dumbass
28-02-2012, 07:03 PM
aud should now be on the final run up to complete this uptrend .

long from 1.0680 needs to stay above 1.0650 to maitain bullish bias target into 1.10 and above.

then will look for a short entry.

Pumice
29-02-2012, 10:08 PM
Half way there DA.
Good call.

How long can this risk rally last?
$1.08 has got to be hurting the Aus economy. I'd love to take a LT short, but its just to expensive at 4.4-4.5%

dumbass
01-03-2012, 11:17 AM
this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

Pumice
01-03-2012, 02:16 PM
this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

I think you are right.
FED plosser is also calling for a rate hike, that would dramarically change things.

Why do you prfer the AUD instead of the NZD for a short?
The carry on the NZD is a hell of a lot cheaper. I would have thought it would be more vulnerable than the AUD as well.

dumbass
01-03-2012, 06:10 PM
they pretty much dance to the same tune , if i'm full in i play 3 full short positions with a bias to the cross that i feel may be weaker.

currently the aud is in a downtrend against the kiwi so i will short two aud usd positions to one nzd usd short, if you get my drift.

this is the most tricky area when a currency is turning and therefore extreme caution is warranted , the minimum requirement is in place but i feel there may

be a little more upward momentum to work off , so patience is required.

dumbass
06-03-2012, 10:18 AM
this uptrend is in the final stages and therefore warrants caution. im out of my long and now setting up a scalping short but as i said before the better trade will be a longer term short when the uptrend completes.
thats the principle of the carry trade but to compensate for the interest diffential in shorting the doorway can get pretty narrow and should see some explosive moves.

1.07 broken 1.0580 next test for a minimum target to the downside

Pumice
06-03-2012, 06:11 PM
I hope you're right DA!

I'm short mostly NZD and a bit of EUR, but have been holding for months.

Pumice
06-03-2012, 10:20 PM
Eurozone GDP -.3% in Q4 & The IIF has said it stands to lose EUR 1trl on a Greek default. Definitely not helping market sentiment.

Awesome for those of us who are short risk.

dumbass
07-03-2012, 10:04 AM
next port in a storm 1.0460 , should help the balance a bit pumice.

Pumice
07-03-2012, 10:27 AM
Thanks DA, the NAV is certainly looking a lot healthier these days.
Oddly my TRY/JPY trade is doing really well, I thought this would have pulled back a lot stronger than it has.
Are you trading anything else other than the Aussie?

dumbass
07-03-2012, 06:35 PM
I have my usual aud usd x 2 short , nzd usd short , short light crude , short gold , long usd

If you are trading it closely i will post a chart on the aud direction, if it drops straight to 10450 then

care must be exercised as price may bounce , if it breaks 10375 then top is confirmed and i will

short the bejesus out of the aud.

Pumice
08-03-2012, 10:03 PM
A bit of a rally going on at the moment.
seems a bit odd, given the Greek debt swap vote is coming up in the next 24 hours.

A chart would be appreciated DA.

dumbass
11-03-2012, 07:42 PM
hey pumice, i am still expecting a significant downtrend in the aud to take the currency to below 90 against the usd in the medium term.

fundamentals will eventually weigh against the aud , this week we have had a benign RBA, GDP about half of expectations, pretty poor employment data ,weakening china GDP etc

yet the aud holds up but this highlights only that the aud is fuelled by risk appetite rather than than economic realities but for how long.

there is a possibilty the top is in and we would have to see 1.0380 taken out to confirm this, i am currently holding my double short position from 1.0720 and 10750 stop at 1.0710 with target at 1.0460 .

interesting divergence on friday between the usd and equity market

i have taken a heavy short on SP500 at close on friday as the risk reward on this trade is fantastic.

should be an interesting week.

still my preferred count is for a final run to 1.10 but positioned to be wrong if the top is already in.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/audh1.jpg

dumbass
15-03-2012, 08:17 AM
I have my usual aud usd x 2 short , nzd usd short , short light crude , short gold , long usd

If you are trading it closely i will post a chart on the aud direction, if it drops straight to 10450 then

care must be exercised as price may bounce , if it breaks 10375 then top is confirmed and i will

short the bejesus out of the aud.

All targets fired for bumper pips on the above trades,the only one i got stopped on was a short on sp500 but the risk was very low.

i would expect some consolidation from this level on the aud , if it is to rally it will be from around this level, will explore from the long side if price bottoms in the next few days.

Pumice
15-03-2012, 10:08 AM
Playing out nicely DA.
Hopefully this is the start of a long term downtrend in the AUD and NZD.

000831
16-05-2013, 11:06 AM
it's on the way to 0.90

Valuegrowth
14-06-2013, 09:21 PM
According to following links AUD can go down further. Suddenly some analysts including bank economists also have become bearish on AUD. AUD dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle and the dollar(USD) has entered a multi-year bull cycle. However there can be dead cat bounce for AUD time to time. Intermediate trend for AUD is down now.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/no-respite-for-the-aussie-dollar-20130614-2o7uw.html (http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/no-respite-for-the-aussie-dollar-20130614-2o7uw.html)

No respite for the Aussie dollar

http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/...ie-dollar.html (http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/38270-4-reasons-to-bet-on-a-lower-aussie-dollar.html)

4 Reasons To Bet On A Lower Aussie Dollar

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...94c-late-trade (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/6/11/australian-dollar/australian-dollar-slides-under-us94c-late-trade)

Australian dollar slides under US94c in late trade

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security orcurrency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in theabove hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
20-06-2013, 10:13 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/20/australian-dollar-33-month-low

Australian dollar hits 33-month lowThe local currency is being sold heavily as the US central bank prepares to wind down its stimulus program

Valuegrowth
03-07-2013, 04:00 PM
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/australian-dollar-hits-sept-2010-low-on-talk-of-more-rba-rate-cuts/story-e6frg926-1226673721252

Australian dollar hits Sept 2010 low on talk of more RBA rate cuts

Valuegrowth
30-12-2013, 05:18 PM
I consider both NZD and AUD two of the extremely overvalue currencies in the world. Still I maintain my bearish on these two currencies. On the other hand USD is undervalued now. They may depreciate at least 40% against USD during next two years.

Please see following links on AUD.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/look-to-short-aussie-for-2014-fxprimus-d2L_S6g7SAm2L1efq_IVYQ.html

Look to `Short' Aussie for 2014: FXPrimus

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-30/aussie-dollar-set-for-biggest-yearly-drop-since-08-on-fed-taper.html

Aussie Dollar Set for Biggest Yearly Drop Since ’08 on Fed Taper

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/australian-dollar-long-term-trend-clearly-downwards-iJ5wGgQJQu~xDiMYf19Osg.html

Australian Dollar Long-Term Trend Clearly DownwardsMy ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
03-07-2014, 11:05 AM
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5d0db6b7-8a5a-45d9-9709-6b78f5f22791

Plenty of risk for AUD/USD today - Westpac

Valuegrowth
20-09-2014, 03:15 PM
I think AUD could go below 60 cents.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-19/australian-dollar-could-fall-to-73-us-cents/5756598

Australian dollar could fall to 73 US cents: analysts My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

Valuegrowth
03-01-2015, 01:52 PM
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/01/02/australian-dollar-slumps-in-late-trading-nears-huge-level/

Australian dollar slumps in late trading, nears huge level

Valuegrowth
16-01-2015, 07:42 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-could-fall-through-us70162-blackrock-20150116-12rryo.html

Australian dollar could fall through US70˘: Blackrock

Pumice
17-01-2015, 03:16 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-could-fall-through-us70162-blackrock-20150116-12rryo.html

Australian dollar could fall through US70˘: Blackrock



70c by mid year! wow.
I hope no traders out there got killed by the CHF cap being removed.
I see the NZ broker Global Brokers NZ Ltd, which operates excel markets has gone under amongst a few other international brokers.

Valuegrowth
06-09-2015, 08:14 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/05/australian-dollar-falls-to-six-year-low-amid-economic-turbulence

Australiandollar falls to new six-year low amid economic turbulence

Valuegrowth
10-06-2016, 10:01 PM
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2016/06/bt-australian-dollar-going-to-40-cents/

BT: Australian dollar going to 40 cents

Valuegrowth
12-11-2016, 03:41 PM
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-bearish-below-07550-uob-201611111049

AUD/USD bearish below 0.7550 – UOB