GBP.USD

[dumbass]

morning arco , i cant post chart at the moment i bailed on the gbpusd hourlies printed a tweezer bottom around about 9 ish last night i think
ill post a lot more detail later

[dumbass]

usd cad still running butterfly entry sl high 94s target 98 ish i think

wave count based trade

sorry its such a crap reply , kind of hard to respond without charts will post later

[arco]

Interesting correlation play.


John Jagerson has mentioned there to be a surprising correlation between oil stocks like BP and the GBP/USD.

He states 'They are both influenced by oil prices and can be used in intermarket analysis. If I see a breakout in one that is not reflected in the other - it is a trading signal. A great example was the break above resistance on BP last week that made me think the GBP/USD would be more likely to break through its July resistance level.'

Check it out yourself in the chart below.


http://www.pfxglobal.com/images/john/10302007bp.png

[dumbass]

just just possible top in , butterfly 127 at 20900

small short at 20860 on , adding at 20820 for the much anticipated abc correction to 20570 first target.

[Craig3215]

Can the dollar push this thing back below its weekly resistance.... I guess we'll find out in the next 9 hours...

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/gbp2.gif

[dumbass]

from ew perspective

in a B wave of an ABC correction of a larger 4th wave

safest possible trade would be the C wave as it takes out A wave low 20522

if 20250 area was breached (4 th wave level of previous impulse wave) then could be a deeper correction as lower channel would be breached

you could pick the top of current B wave and then ride the C wave all the way down

of course always an alternate count going on

[peat]

wave 3 is smaller than both waves1 and 5 tho
a no no in elliot wave theory.
not that I'm any good at EW DA, but I do know the rule that says wave 3 must not be the smallest

[dumbass]

im not sure what your getting at peat

you may be interpreting the wave degree wrong i will post with bigger text

[peat]

oic
my mistake i was confusing eg (1 ) with 1

as you were !

[dumbass]

just a note on the chart posted the critical level for the 4th wave retracement is 20370 as wave 4 can not overlap wave 1

[arco]

DB

On your previous chart I notice your wave three in the smaller count is shorter than 5, which does not follow the EW rules. I show here an alternative possibility for consideration.

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

3 doesn't have to be longest just not the shortest

but your count is a possibilty ,wave 2 is more often a zig zag rather yours is a complex

very subjective really

[arco]

Yes the EW rules are very complex and Neelys interpretation is different to Prechter.

Impulse Rules: An Impulse is a five Wave pattern labeled 1-2-3-4-5 moving in the direction of the larger trend. It is the most common Elliott Wave pattern.
Wave 1 must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
Wave 2 may be any corrective pattern except a Triangle.
No part of Wave 2 can more than retrace Wave 1.
Wave 2 must retrace Wave 1 by a minimum of 20%.
The maximum time for Wave 2 is nine times Wave 1.
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 3 must be longer than Wave 2 in gross distance by price.
The gross price movement of Wave 2 must be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 1 or Wave 4 of Wave 1. The gross price movement of Wave 2 must also be greater than either Wave 2 of Wave 3 or Wave 4 of Wave 3. Wave 2 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of the above 4 sub-Waves.
Wave 3 and Wave 1 cannot both have 5th Wave failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
Wave 3 cannot be less than 1/3 of Wave 1 by price.
Wave 3 cannot be more than 7 times Wave 1 by price.
Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave 3, its absolute maximum time limit is 7 times Wave 1.
Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
Waves 1, 2 and 4 cannot overlap except by 15% of Wave 2 with leveraged securities, and then only for a maximum of less than two days.
The gross price movement of Wave 4 must be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 3 or Wave 4 of 3. The gross price movement of Wave 4 must also be greater than either the gross movement of Wave 2 of 5 or Wave 4 of 5. The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must also be greater than 61.8% of the gross movement of each of these four subwaves.
The gross movement by price of Wave 4 must be greater than 1/3 of the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
The gross movement by price for Wave 4 must be less than three times the gross movement of Wave 2 by both price and percentage movement.
Wave 3 and Wave 4 cannot both be failures. (A Failure is an impulsive Wave where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4 by price.)
Although Wave 4 has no minimum time constraint, the maximum time for Wave 4 is twice the time taken by Wave 3.
Wave 5 must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. However, if Wave 5 is longer than Wave 3 by price, then Wave 5 must be an Impulse.
Wave 5 must move by price more than 70% of Wave 4. (This is not gross movement. Only consider the end points of both Waves.)
Wave 3 must never be shorter than both Wave 1 and 5, by either price distance or percentage price movement.
If Wave 5 is truncated, or contains an Impulse that is truncated, then neither Wave 3 nor Wave 4 can contain a subwave that is truncated. (A truncated pattern is where Wave 5 is shorter than Wave 4. This is also known as a failure.)
The maximum movement of Wave 5 is six times Wave 3 in both price and time.
Wave 5 has no minimum time constraint.Full set here

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500-Articles/EWRules.htm

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

HOLLY ****

i thought i was getting on top of the rules

[arco]

:D

DB

Try a read of Glen Neelys version of EW if you can find a copy in Borders.

Also Miles Wilson Walker from Auckland has an interesting slant on the short term trading using EW, (How to Identify High-Profit Elliott Wave Trades in Real Time), and Steven Poser is another EW 'master' - (Applying EW Profitably).

Mind boggling

rgds - arco

[arco]

Updating the previous EW chart

Interesting that both 261.8 wave one projections terminate in the same area

Time alone will tell.............

[dumbass]

i just got a friend of mine to give me his ew on gbp , he subscribes to elliotwave .com

Signal = Sell stop below 2.0800 area.

Risk Reward Ratio = 2.39+ (Medium Risk)

Our First target profit at 2.0657 area.Second will be at 2.0535.


Stop Loss at above 2.0927 area.

Great Britain Pound Elliott wave Analysis :-

Last Friday we had a clear correction downward form at GBP/USD chart.

That is the first signal of more possible down fall moves if cable continue to loose bullish momentum.

We see last friday downfall as our first sub-wave a of wave (iv).

The duration of our objective target sub-wave c may vary.Its all depends on market movement.If it made a strong move down, we will see sub-wave c may complete in very near future.And if market have a slow bearish momentum, we could see market take a longer time to complete sub-wave c of wave (iv).

Critical zone of wave (iv) would be at 2.0370 area.If Cable break that support and trade below 2.0350 point , it will be a major downfall for a logger period of time.

Latest GBP/USD Elliott wave analysis on medium term basis

[dumbass]

if anyone was clever enough to pick top of wave B 3oo + pips to be had yesterday

safer trade now on as price taken out A low

butterfly in progress on hourlies

[peat]

was long Eur against the pound last night got 80 pips.

[dumbass]

hitting critical level of 20370 area have closed out shorts

if this is taken out serious correction in progress worth another short

c wave worth 500 +
safe trade 150 +

[dumbass]

may be possibilty of 4th wave completion for a run north

divergence on q stick

bat prz

bullish engulfing

rising trend line support

low risk entry would be entry on wave 2 retracement with stop loss at 20350

[dumbass]

the weekly supports the case of further correction in gbp

evening star print and by a few pips wave 4 has overlapped wave 1

i would still trade from long side but get as close as possible to key support at 20350

and set a stop and reverse.

very interesting to see the outcome

[dumbass]

this trade clicking uo 350 pips , looking to close out and short

action has more of a feel of a corrective pattern

c wave of a (b)

gartley prz (2.0950 ISH) would provide a safe entry point for big move of c wave , first target would be

around 2.00

as always confirmation required and it may not make it to prz

[arco]

Nice trade DB........you are doing extremly well.

Cable - Agree, looks very much like a bearish scenario unfolding.
Getting short is at a low risk point with the potential of a move
into the lower pink box. Good R/R.

Interestingly the big brown box on the chart it the
'old brown moth' target from years ago (shown at
various times/places on this thread).

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

looks like south bound move underway

preferred count would be wave c

alternate count would even better iii of a 3

[dumbass]

650 pips on c wave so far

pausing at 4th wave consolidation before hitting lower channel around 2.00 - 2.01

would seem a good place to close shorts

[dumbass]

would now in my opinion be worth looking at short again

i was fortunate to see a good risk reward trade as the wave 4 retracement came pretty

close to wave 1 on previous chart

short at 2.05 sl 2.0540

aiming for original target around 2.00

[arco]

One order got triggered overnight @ 2.0440....currently +100

Possible target down towards the 2.000 level (will re-evaluate once I
get Rooters EOD download at 11am)

[arco]

Heres an updated chart showing a potential green Gartley
in the making, with a target down near the 2.000 area.
That would complete a 5/3/5 ABC pattern.

rgds - arco

______________________

[arco]

Moving on nicely now after a shaky start.

+284

[Craig3215]

This is the way I'm currently looking at GBP/USD, with an expanded flat correction we should be looking for a turn around where wave C is 1.618 the length of wave A, which according to my calculations this is around 1.955
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/gbpu1-10-1.gif

[arco]

Hi Craig

That fits nicely with the BFs as mentioned earlier on the Eur.Gpb thread

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

bullish on gbp

currently in a 3 wave abc correction of wave 2 or b

looking to buy into retracement off downtrend line to ride c wave up target around 2.00 initially

[Craig3215]

Hi DB,
I'm currently long GBP and looking to add at 9720, right around the 20 day moving average which acted as strong resistance on the way down for this pair, now that its through I'm thinking this could give us some support

[dumbass]

hi craig

i reckon the a wave looks like its finishing ( doji on daily, trendline , doji and divergence hourlies 6 am candle

i think it will retrace to your level mentioned at 19750 in a b wave possibly even to 19550

before resuming run on 200 for c wave

currently short 19850 sl 19920 targets as mentioned

[dumbass]

starting to look like gbp ready for what could be a powerful run higher currently 1948o

good risk reward with stop 194 4o

[dumbass]

got stopped have had another go risk level 193 6o entered 194 1o

still fancy this one putting in a big move north

[peat]

I,m sure I posted this an hour ago before the move but its disappeared so this comment was pre the jump

if its any consolation Paul I think Eur Gbp is going to assist

and now it has

[peat]

well last night should have compensated for the previous one DA - well done!
I joined you for +165 now closed overnite. very small trade coz cable is a bit scary sometimes but on this occasion in a good way.
note that 1.9650 is a 78% retracment area.

[dumbass]

thanks peat well done as well to everyone

i used 618 as target so i am there but looking for another entry

i reckon yen is the next one to have a look , it hasnt moved for a while

especially usdj

trying to get as close to 110 for a short

[Craig3215]

GBP looking strong with a break out of that range and the triple play in the macd; divergence, moving ave cross over, and centerline cross over

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/gbp3-6.jpg

[dumbass]

currently short gbp 19730 sl 198 target a lot lower

3 rd wave down in progress , confirmed down trend line

risk event 11 gmt boe rate announcement should cut and give a push lower

retracement up has broken down

[roddy]

Hi DB

Nice post, just an observation are you preferring to elliot wave count in preference to butterfly patterns eg d leg in the making at present on this one,are you finding wave count more reliable,or no particular reason?

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

hi rod

a bit of a shocker got stopped out

this trade was based on 15 min chart , there was a nice elliot wave count but it was wrong

the daily chart is really used for the big picture direction

im as sure as you can ever be in this game that gbp is going lower unfortunately the stop

loss would be 2.001 top of internal wave 2 (top at 04/04 )

so just tried to sneak on down trend with a resonable risk reward so will defintley look for

another short entry

the butterfly has no real relevance until action gets near the reversal zone

been watching euro closely looks like an ascending triangle forming ill post on euro thread

[dumbass]

been following this for a while

there is a good risk reward profile to test triangle hypothesis

d wave completing setting up to go long for the e wave run north

[arco]

>>>>>>>

Or perhaps the Red BF is still in charge ........the action
has passed through the first target zone

[arco]

>>>>>

Action has touched the lower red box as per last chart.........

100 easy pips (so far) for those quick off the draw........

[arco]

That mega fall from the 1st box was circa 250 pips......hope a few
forum members caught some of the action.

The plot just managed to touch the 127.2 line (red box) and also reacted to an old support area. (Dotted green line on previous chart).

......................Could be another interesting week next week

arco

[arco]

8.30 pm tonight - Consumer Price Index (CPI) - UK

Measures the change in prices for retail goods and services, including food and gas. The CPI is the key measure of inflation for the UK and is used by the Bank of England in making interest rate decisions. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical British household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Sterling to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

In order to manage inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates, which slows economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Pound more attractive to foreign investors, and the higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Pound.

This announcement tends to move markets on release so there may be some scalping opps if you are around at 8.30 pm NZT

[dumbass]

nice one peat ,

i have spent a bit of time looking at possiblity of usd strength having a bit of a breather

there is a clear 5 waves up and 3 wave correction on the 5 min chart which may suggest

bottom in place at 185 09 similar on eur usd

this should provide a good few pips before decline resumes ( dollar strength)

a lot of traders out there waiting for it though , caution required

[arco]

____________

When AB=CD and a Pin Bar completes on the daily it could signal a little good fortune in the short/medium term

rgds -arco

[dumbass]

hi arco , any chance of a chart , id like to see ab = cd

thanks

[dumbass]

i think you could probably label this diagram more imaginatively

oooh er missus , normally no lie about where its going

what a hoot

[arco]

Hi DB

Here's the chart - almost a Gartley perhaps

[dumbass]

thanks arco

i think there is a good case on many levels for a faded long at market open with stop just

below hammer low

fingers crossed

[arco]

..............................

Lets hope we can nail it with that hammer.........anyway, I've decided to pin all my hopes on it. ;)

[arco]

Just scalped a quick 30 pips on that little flourish, so I'll grab some dinner
and see how the land lies after.....

.........191 pips for the day.....might have a celebratory drink. :D

[arco]

.

Couldnt resist taking a short on the 15m H&S formation.......went for a target based on the measured move and the UT line
.....+60 pips. It was set on auto pilot, but could have got twice that and change.....:(

Never mind I got +50 on the Euro as well :)

Makes a nice end to a reasonable week.

rgds - arco

[arco]

Anyone spot 3 little Indians........Larry calls it a very rare pattern.

[peat]

you sure it wasnt Linda who called it that

;)

quote Arco on goforex march 2006

This pattern has different names, depending on the source - Larry Pesavento describes the pattern as "3 pushes to a top/bottom", Jeff Cooper uses "Cooper 1-2-3 swing" nomenclature, and Linda Raschke likes to call this setup "3 indians".

[arco]

Morning Peat

Just checking to see if you were paying attention. ;)

Three Little Indians was a setup popularised by Linda Bradford Raschke (also known as Three Pushes to a Top, Three Drives, Three Waves to a Peak, Three Monkeys on a Branch, etc).

It almost looks like we've got 4 Little Indians this morning......should I be first to name it......OK

4 bangs to the bottom - a very rare pattern indeed

Lets see is if rings the tills for 200 pips

[arco]

.
4 Bangs on the Bottom....heres the chart
http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/757.gif


Should meet some resistance at the TL no doubt, but can
it make it to the 8500-8600 area...........well maybe just fx.

arco

[arco]

3 Little Indians - I knew if I looked long enough, I'd trace them in the wigwams of the computer.

http://www.structurallogic.com/subscribe/spoos/spoo%20gifs/3%20indians%20of%20Feb%2027%202000.gif

[peat]

Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:49:17 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.8528
Support: 1.8505, 1.8335, 1.8145, 1.8090
Resistance: 1.8615, 1.8685, 1.8795, 1.9000

The weekly chart reveals how it's possible to count five waves up from 1.7049. With an impulsive decline from the peak above 2.1100 we have to consider the potential that a top is in place.

So we have to acknowledge the count shown on this monthly chart that has a significant peak in place.

[arco]

Thanks Peat fro the EW charts.


Those 3 or 4 Little Indians are definitely not playing the game........

......you wait til Linda finds out.

[dumbass]

BOE rate decision tonight at 10 pm nz time,

rate cut has been ruled out by polled reuters economists.

BOE have a history of surprising and from current chatter and data seems there

may be an outside chance of a cut which should provide a breakout opportunity lower.

[arco]

Hi DB

I thought it was @ 11pm???

[dumbass]

its 11 gmt which is 10 pm nz time , but i could be wrong

[peat]

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/decisions.htm

midday UK time.

11 PM our time

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/

[dumbass]

saxo's got it at 11am gmt but with daylight saving thats 12 noon london

which is 11pm here .

[dumbass]

didnt need a rate cut to hit the floor

got 80 on the way down

[arco]

.

This is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target

Powerful Move Possible

.

[Tok3n]

Do you guys trade during news periods? seems a bit scary even with stops

[dumbass]

sometimes , it sort of speeds a trade up , your either right or wrong.

got a long elliot wave count at moment.

[Dr_Who]

got a long elliot wave count at moment.

What does that mean?

[arco]

Do you guys trade during news periods? seems a bit scary even with stops

Tok3n

If you trade the news.......you have to be able to feel the fear without quivering......

you need wide stops (or if you can - no stops).....you must take quick profits/quick losses.

Pre-release.
Secret is to try to be positioned before the event.....but you need to be able to judge the mood. And remember sometimes black is white, yes is no.....if you get the idea...........read between the lines

Try counting waves.....it can sometimes be a help

Good luck

arco

[arco]

What does that mean?

In case DB is not around to answer.

DB means his EW workings shows the pattern to indicate a 'long' count is in progress .....Cable heading north.

rgds - arco

[peat]

I was seeing us currently in wave c
with the 5 purple waves and the a and c wave in yellow

1 = 5 and if c = a then back to 1.77

But its just me sayin what I see....I'm very open to why this count might be wrong or how else to do it.

[dumbass]

thanks arco , yes doc see on the chart currently in a 4th wave , which means there is still one more wave higher , 5th wave

not much use at the moment as risk is too great to go long from here

so waiting for 830 which may take price lower and a more favorablr risk to go long or break 3rd wave high to then complete 5th wave.

so just waiting

[arco]

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1105/british-pound-weekly.gif.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2376

[speres]

Interesting chart, we may have here a reversal.........

[AMR]

GBP.USD rebounded off 7 year support, entered a trade last night to see a retest.

[AMR]

GBP.USD rebounded off 7 year support, entered a trade last night to see a retest.

Well that went very badly. Went short at 1.42, stopped out 1.46. Went short again 1.47. GBP rallied thru my stop by 80 pips and then my big move happens...argh!****!

[dumbass]

hi S, choppy action on cable recently , very much in a broad range between 1.35 - 1.50
last few months.
short term action not a lot clearer 148.38 ( 61.8 of wave down) needs to hold and reverse and i would take opportunity to buy the move lower and close out short.
strong correlation at the moment with equity markets,i'm expecting short term, market decline to complete B wave but its going to be a choppy affair.(sp500 /dow)
in summary better fish to fry.

[golsau]

hi S, choppy action on cable recently , very much in a broad range between 1.35 - 1.50
last few months.
short term action not a lot clearer 148.38 ( 61.8 of wave down) needs to hold and reverse and i would take opportunity to buy the move lower and close out short.
strong correlation at the moment with equity markets,i'm expecting short term, market decline to complete B wave but its going to be a choppy affair.(sp500 /dow)
in summary better fish to fry.
Hi Dumbass,

I have been reading your comments over the past few weeks. Very interesting.
I guess if I would have been following your lead I would have made money but some people are stubborn!!!!????
Anyway, at least your gbpusd latest projection looks good for me as I am short gbp with.
Thanks

[dumbass]

it feels like there is no clear direction in forex markets at the moment.performance of the equity markets will determine short term direction.
Still favour a slow drift lower before markets hit their straps for a run up to 10 k + on dow, then Armageddon C wave lower.
The big trade to watch for the future is short euro, very surprised its held up so well and feel it will correct to parity.

[arco]

.

The rounded bottom is a similar set-up and target to a H&S

.

[/URL][URL="http://www.freeimagehosting.net/"]http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/4656ad8f90.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[dumbass]

similar elliot wave count would have cable in a correction with a 5th wave target the same

as yours arco.

the charts seem to be indicating one final wave down in the USD and therefore one final

wave higher in equities before a great shorting opportunity.

how you seeing it ?

[arco]

similar elliot wave count would have cable in a correction with a 5th wave target the same

as yours arco.

the charts seem to be indicating one final wave down in the USD and therefore one final

wave higher in equities before a great shorting opportunity.

how you seeing it ?

Pure guestimate ATM but maybe..........

North move imminent to 6650-6750, reversal south to circa 6450, and perhaps north again towards 7300-7500. Then south again

arco

.

[arco]

Short term chart

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/947986de51.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

[arco]

Potential H&S forming

http://i29.tinypic.com/2e4ceh5.gif

[arco]

Good entry achieved off H1

http://i27.tinypic.com/1zps6ep.gif (http://i27.tinypic.com/1zps6ep.gif)

[peat]

a few red 30 minute candles is helping the 1.6575 entry from y'day along a bit better now to +60 but had to endure a -90 at one stage (with a -150 pip stop at the high of 1.6740.
I might try and hang out for that 1.53 grey box !
Could be we're impulsive down now coz that rally last 24 hours sure looked corrective to me

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes agree, it does look a bit corrective.

I took a profit on the original trade - I still find it real hard to resist a profit and to hang on through those ups and downs. :(

Anyway, looking to get back in now on a wave 2 retrace, and will try to hang in longer, or at least leave some on the table for the grey box.

H1 chart. Possibility of a wave 'c' move to the Kumo or just beyond to broken trend-line perhaps), - forming a Gartley.

Short term trade potential north. SAR at Gartley

BTW. I like the Evening Star on the daily chart.

http://i26.tinypic.com/2vdl1lu.gif

[arco]

.
So far, so good.

http://i26.tinypic.com/2v0dhr9.gif

[arco]

60 pips taken. Happy with that :).............could be more but I can sleep easy

I'll look for a reversal pattern to form below the Kumo.

http://i28.tinypic.com/2r7sti9.gif

[arco]

Yesterdays action visited the Kumo as expected(yellow spot) giving a roller coaster ride for hangers on and only a few extra pips.

The current PA is bogged down under the Kumo, and with a DT line not far above and a potential flag, longs should be cautious IMO

http://i28.tinypic.com/20sxi0k.gif

[arco]

Result - trade still open. I entered shortly after the bearish engulf (1.6536) with SL just above that arrowed candle


http://i26.tinypic.com/2vjpwjn.gif

[peat]

yep - originial position still open, added some more last night and closed that out this morning for about a hundred pips.

[arco]

You still in Peat?

http://i38.tinypic.com/r6whhw.gif (http://i38.tinypic.com/r6whhw.gif)

[peat]

yup +300 ....

[peat]

couldnt help myself - closed +387
I would need to close it in the next couple of days anyway due to being o'seas and offline so now seems like a good time. still have the Eur/Gbp long

[arco]

Always good to take a profit

Also closed 50% off at exactly +300

Have a good trip

arco

[peat]

yep its climbed 200 pips now back to the 61% retracement of the fall so could be toppy again here or slightly higher.....

[arco]

Hi Peat

I got out of the balance as well with a nice profit.

Looking for re-entry.
Present PA looks interesting and it could reverse soon falling
through that thin Kumo below

http://i36.tinypic.com/eqdlxy.gif

[arco]

Could be looking interesting for a short around 6390-6400

[arco]

Could be looking interesting for a short around 6390-6400

High was 6388. Gee I gotta sharpen up a bit :rolleyes:

Currently +31


http://i36.tinypic.com/imkx8i.gif

[outspoken]

Nice work arco, I see the GBP is tanking against all pairs tonight

[arco]

Nice work arco, I see the GBP is tanking against all pairs tonight

Yes, it might have a long way to go. The green line is the potential H&S I mentioned a while back
.

http://i33.tinypic.com/2gubcxf.jpg

[arco]

Update

I've taken the profit, hoping for a retrace.

http://i33.tinypic.com/102wl7b.gif

[arco]

Got triggered in to this trade this morning, and have now taken a profit

http://i36.tinypic.com/2yx1vyh.gif

[peat]

I did see a bullish pattern form with cable after NFP.
small trade as its against the main trend I think but currently +63

[peat]

closed this out for +97

[arco]

Longer term the H&S may have its day

So IMO we could see a return towards the neckline, and if that holds at resistance, the bears may gain control for a while.

http://i34.tinypic.com/s63ma0.gif

Here's the earlier chart. I'm not sure if I got around to posting it

http://i35.tinypic.com/21mu6i0.gif

[loofa]

arco,
How did you see the position at NZ06:30 8th Oct?
1. Breached the three previous minor highs of 24+ hours
2. MACD divergence if you believe in such things

[arco]

arco,
How did you see the position at NZ06:30 8th Oct?
1. Breached the three previous minor highs of 24+ hours
2. MACD divergence if you believe in such things

Morning Loofa
As per my previous post, PA had been indicating continued northbound movement, which I had been predicting for 6/7 days. (H&S test)

The 0630 candle started to set up another Ichi long signal on the 30m TF, and a position could have been taken or pyramided circa 1.5980 for a max gain of circa 140 pips.

Divergences can be powerful indicators, although like everything, they are not foolproof. In this case I have just checked and MacD certainly gave a good signal although I dont personally use it.

rgds - arco

http://i35.tinypic.com/25f3j3t.gif

[arco]

Just reviewing the H4 and presently the PA may be forming a DCC at the Kumo top edge with Chikou baulking at the bottom edge. The bold purple line is the H&S line

http://i36.tinypic.com/1zez781.gif

[arco]

Update - +230 pips for shorters

http://i34.tinypic.com/2uhx061.gif

[peat]

I saw a continuation pattern in the triangle and shorted when it broke for best part of 50 pips in minutes.

[arco]

Good spotting Peat

I was already in from Friday, and have also taken a nice profit.

http://i38.tinypic.com/id59i1.gif

[loofa]

Reaction long after the drop?

[loofa]

Reaction long after the drop?

+60 with no retrace to date.

[arco]

I looked at Cable yesterday morning for the retrace, but actually took the trade using GBP.JPY - exit at 60 pips

[peat]

nice overnight take from Arco's blog

default setting of 150 pips taken with a couple of cable trades

[dumbass]

Im hopefull on this one Peat heading still lower and risked a weekend hold of three postions to hang on for sub 161 even to target of 160.

great to see the in workings of arcos trading truly a fascinating study .

http://iforce.co.nz/i/qt0ujk3z.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=qt0ujk3z.jpg)

[Mush]

Big move in GBPUSD. Looks like some comments fom Holland pushed it through 1.26, then the algos got hold of it and liquidity dried up. Reports from dealers saying the lowest traded was 1.1378. Big move for a matter of seconds.

That was bigger than the initial move for BREXIT when the Sunderland vote came in.

8345

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/cba-reckons-theres-plenty-of-upside-to-come-for-the-british-pound-in-the-short-term-2016-11

[Valuegrowth]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/12/01/opec-effect-lifts-pound-11-week-high-against-euro-investors/

Pound surges to eight-week high against dollar after Brexit minister hints at EU market access