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arco
18-03-2004, 12:29 PM
One of my systems has triggered a
possible long on the Gbp.Usd
I would prefer to see dual confirmation,
however there is often a decent day trade
available from this signal.

Please note. My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The system I have detailed above could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow this system be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk and that I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred.

arco
18-03-2004, 09:05 PM
Update.
Nice rise already on this one so far since open and has
been up as high as 1.8273 from open @ 1.8164

In these situations IMO its always good to take 100 points
profit on 50% of the position and let the balance ride
with a trailing stop.

arco
23-03-2004, 10:42 AM
Update.
Continued upward movement on this one so far since
position opened and has been as high as 1.8498
from start @ 1.8164.
Current profit to yesterdays close + 311 pips.

arco
25-03-2004, 09:58 AM
Quite a fall overnight on this pair, and that is why IMO
its always wise to take some profits along the way.
This means if the stop is at entry and gets hit,
at least 100 pips profit is guaranteed and already
safely in the account.

Technically today one system on the daily has triggered a short,
and the weekly is already short. In this case for safety we could decide to close the balance 50% long now and take an extra 80 points.

arco
26-03-2004, 11:13 AM
It was sensible to grab the extra 80 pips and
follow the signal to go short.
(Total 180 pips taken from the long).

Quite a fall overnight again on this pair, with
an extra 100 pips taken out of the 255 pip range
on 50% of position.

Balance 50% on trailing stop.

arco
14-04-2004, 03:02 PM
Balance stopped out at breakeven.
Total 100 pips.

arco
29-04-2004, 11:56 AM
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04.28.gif

arco
07-05-2004, 04:23 PM
Currently testing the change in H&S neckline polarity, and if this resistance holds firm we could soon see the continuation of leg 5 down IMO.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2002-10/63527/HS.gif

arco
10-05-2004, 02:46 PM
If image in last post is blank try accessing
from this link.

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/H&S.gif

arco
10-05-2004, 06:03 PM
Short from 7842

http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/trade1.gif

arco
11-05-2004, 10:00 AM
Expecting a possible rise today so
trade closed @ +75pips

arco
14-05-2004, 09:13 AM
There was a slight one day rise as expected
but the fall has resumed with first targets
perhaps in the 7300-7340 region.

18-21-31 May could be directional dates.

arco
15-06-2004, 03:31 PM
Maybe an explosive move about to happen?

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06142004a.gif

arco
24-06-2004, 10:46 AM
The possible Flag consolidation appears to be developing into a Reverse Symmetrical (bullish), and if that is the case there will be a fall to 'e' completing corrective '2', and a reversal should follow. I have 30 June as a significant date. (Amended from 1 July).
There is a chance that 1.8000 could be seen first IMO.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06232004.gif

arco
16-07-2004, 10:28 AM
The chart appears to show we could be at or nearing the top.
Perhaps minor wave 4-5 of 3AB. Prepare for descent to C.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07152004.gif

arco
21-07-2004, 09:23 AM
Thats an ominous black candle me thinks.
The action has tested the box and the top may now be in.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07202004.gif

arco
24-08-2004, 12:10 PM
Nice fall of upto 479 pips (so far) since the last post 21/7.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/08232004_115.gif

arco
06-09-2004, 09:35 AM
792 pips now for medium term holders.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/09032004.gif

arco
12-11-2004, 10:43 AM
May now fall to complete 'E' IMO

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/11112004.gif

pringy
16-11-2004, 07:45 PM
Hey, I've only just noticed these postings, very good stuff! Do you do EUR/USD too? =) i'm a beginner trader, have not been very successful.

Mostly because of taking big risks during fundamental announcements (initially successful when they still guaranteed the fill price, but not anymore!), so i think i'll stay away from that.

But quick questions, what good resources are there for learning about the Elliott wave? And what are the rules governing the formation of ABCD in relation to 12345? I sort of understand 12345, but can't seem to find any details on ABCD.

arco
16-11-2004, 09:38 PM
pringy

If you want a starter course on EW you could try the site below, or do a search on Google where you will find many more sites.

http://www.elliott-wave-theory.com/elliott1.html#general

However, bear in mind its very complicated and
even 'wavers' often can't agree on wave counts.

I personally use a simple version of my
own - Arcowaves ;),
so you cant always rely on my lettering/numbering
as perfect EW notation.
(And FYI - abcde is often used for Triangles).

Arco

arco
05-04-2005, 10:16 AM
Check GBP.USD out on tacticaltrader.com
if you like to follow this pair.

GTA

arco
27-04-2005, 08:09 AM
The current short is showing +105 on Thursdays
entry and +32 on a pyramid entry.
More info on TT.

arco

arco
29-04-2005, 05:24 PM
Position stopped out at breakeven.
No damage fortunately.

Sometimes a short term profit can be
more rewarding......but hindsight is a
wonderful thing :D

There were a few worries with GBP as
I mentioned earlier so will remain flat
until the position becomes more clear.

arco
03-05-2005, 09:25 AM
Back on the horse...........

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/05032005_gbp_cont_tri.gif

Go, Dobbin, go....

Xerof
04-05-2005, 01:05 PM
just sold 1 unit of GBP/USD at 1.8990. S/L 1.9041

Xerof

arco
04-05-2005, 03:34 PM
SL hit at 8973.....Profit 63 pips.

Expect to re-enter shortly.

Xerof - Any idea what's causing the surge?

arco

Xerof
04-05-2005, 03:51 PM
I think its just the usual counter-intuitive post risk event move (hows that!) In other words - a short squeeze of long dollar positions built up over the past week, in case the Fed altered its wording or went 50 points.

In hindsight I might have got in a little too early - London session might be rather interesting....

Default MACD's, SMA 10,20 have all crossed positively on 2 hourly charts for all the major currencies, incl Kiwi....

Xerof

arco
05-05-2005, 08:50 AM
Interesting move, - could be testing
polarity change on the 9043 line.

No position, but will follow up behind
with a trailing short.

Xerof
05-05-2005, 08:38 PM
More on your query re yesterdays surge after FED raised rates - this might put some insight into why the move occurred, and is continuing tonight, and may be near the mark as to what the market is thinking - fundamentals I'm afraid[8D][8D]

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/b63c5633e02af00/bsccc050505.pdf

Xerof

Xerof
09-05-2005, 08:32 AM
quote:posted 5/5/05

but did get some GBP out at 1.9065 earlier today on that inexplicable brief spike

Closed this out after NFP at 1.8943 for 122 pips.

Xerof

Xerof
10-05-2005, 05:01 PM
Todays rally back to 1.8870ish may have been enough of a correction. IMO sell a break of 1.8800 tonight with a 50 pip stop

Xerof

Xerof
12-05-2005, 11:38 AM
Yesterdays volatility just shows how wide stops (or how small positions) need to be in Sterling. Thankfully I stayed out, as would have been caned

GWD's latest update on TT is, I think, indicating yet another (savage) bounce may occur before it heads south again.

In any event rallies should be sold IMO - picking the level to sell is the difficulty.....but maybe 1.8810?

arco
12-05-2005, 12:19 PM
I took a small beer from GBP overnight.
Just 23 pips - entered in my sleep and
exited this morning over porridge and honey.

For laid back traders with big stops I think GBP will
travel further south in the medium term.
There is a beautiful Gartley working which has gone
past its first reversal point, and that leads
me to think GBP will head down to lower
figures. The long standing uptrend line is
just poised waiting for a kissXXX from Mr Gartley
which will turn it not into a frog but a
Bullish Butterfly - perhaps. We shall see.

arco

arco
13-05-2005, 10:09 AM
Entered again overnight @ 8681 currently +48 pips

Anyone else playing?

Xerof
13-05-2005, 10:34 AM
Not yet, but with trailing stops on everything else, ready to leverage up further......looks like its broken the triangle that TT participants have been talking about

My 'mate' Stormy Forex has also had a golden week on CAD/GBP/EUR and AUD picks....

Xerof

arco
13-05-2005, 11:00 AM
Never bought into that triangle theory.....it
just didn't fit with my TA.

Xerof - Are you paying for Stormy calls?

Xerof
13-05-2005, 11:09 AM
No, he occasionally posts free analysis on his site, and/or posts them on www.trade2win.com, but seems to only go public when he's very confident with the tea leaves

Xerof

sori, had misquoted website address

Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:06 AM
Like EURO, GBP has done 5 waves down on 60 minute chart. 1.8600 area should contain any corrective rally

I don't have a position here, but will consider selling a rally to 1.8600


Xerof

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:24 AM
Bought 1 unit of GBP/USD at 1.8476 with a s/l at 1.8448, target 1.8568

Seems very, very oversold to me this morning

Xerof

arco
16-05-2005, 10:46 AM
Initial Gartley objective targets are 8426-8517
so we may see a pivot form around this point.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 05:54 PM
No joy, stopped out, tho still v o/sold. Perhaps a bounce from current levels is possible but will stay square now

Xerof

arco
16-05-2005, 10:07 PM
Just took 79 pips from the short that got triggered
below w/e pivot at 8460.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:16 PM
Arco, "being brave when others etc...." well done

arco
18-05-2005, 02:57 PM
You know that 9 red candles in a row is almost an
open invitation for a green light to appear and
send the shorts scurrying for cover.

Xerof
18-05-2005, 03:30 PM
Arco, remember this diamond formation from ol' stormy?

http://www.stormyforex.com/showimg.aspx?imgid=23

sell on a rally to 1.8500 is his latest call

Todays 9th daily candle has sufficient time left for a long wick to dangle below....

I have a small pair of longs waiting to be filled at 1.8280 s/l 1.8250, but would then rebuy around 1.8200 with tight stop if wrong initially

Xerof

arco
18-05-2005, 04:23 PM
Xerof
Judging by your last photo those small pair of
longs are not going to fit anymore are they? :D

Stormys Chart
Interesting divergence on the Momentum, and
can you see the very obvious Bullish Butterfly?

Is that diamond really a diamond ?
More like a Flag IMO - (extend the left line)?

This is a traditional Diamond Top
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/Imaged20.jpg

Minor uptrend line approaching captain, prepare
the reverse thrust.

arco

Xerof
18-05-2005, 04:42 PM
Thanks for expert comment - my TA book is winging its way from Amazon at this very moment, so will be able to DIY in a few years:D

lakedaemonian
19-05-2005, 07:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof


Thanks for expert comment - my TA book is winging its way from Amazon at this very moment, so will be able to DIY in a few years:D


Same here...eagerly awaiting its arrival.

After having been pounded by the pound(I went long on a hunch looking for a bounce) I'm keen to spend more time on my FOREX education.

Speaking of education, I learned why stop losses could have been quite useful had I applied them appropriately.

At least I can console myself with the fact that the "lesson" only cost a little bit of money and a bruised ego :D

slam
19-05-2005, 07:46 AM
Went long at 1.8340, +66 atm
see how we go
Tight stop

Slam

Xerof
19-05-2005, 08:00 AM
Lakedetc, there is an old saying in the markets - "its never too late to sell a pound".

Well done slam.

Xerof - don't be so greedy....

Arco, haven't heard of your trailing entry yet - I'm sure you would have had one:D:D


Xerof

arco
19-05-2005, 08:28 AM
Xerof

......... Yes, as I said yesterday

quote:Minor uptrend line approaching captain, prepare
the reverse thrust.

entered at 8333 + 60

arco

arco
20-05-2005, 09:45 AM
A test of patience.

It might be less frustrating watching paint dry,
although I might have to brush up on my skills.

Long 8333 + 7 [B)]

arco

slam
22-05-2005, 09:34 PM
Tested mine, stopped out[:I]

arco
23-05-2005, 08:43 AM
However I look at this, it would seem technically
there should be a northbound swing move of some sort
before too long.

GBP looks over done at the moment with various minor
supports positioned in the area down to Gann levels
at 8311/8189. Hedge your bets.

arco

lakedaemonian
23-05-2005, 09:18 AM
I am a glutton for punishment :D

Back in long on the Pound

Xerof
23-05-2005, 05:55 PM
sold a sliver of mint wafer here at 1.8269, but not looking for too much, as selling EUR/GBP appears to be flavour of the day

Stopped at 1.8296 - no joy

arco
24-05-2005, 07:38 AM
Could be turning as mentioned yesterday.


quote:...........it would seem technically
there should be a northbound swing move of some sort
before too long.........
GBP looks over done at the moment with various minor
supports positioned in the area down to Gann levels
at 8311/8189.


Slightly underwater @ -17

......but when Butterflies really fly north it can
be a very pretty sight ;)

arco

slam
24-05-2005, 11:09 AM
I get a channel on this pair at the mo
1.8280 - 1.8325
so with that in mind, just picked up another of the low:)

Cheers Slam

Edit: 1 hour chart;)

slam
24-05-2005, 02:15 PM
bit tight on my range[:I]
but still a channel imo

lakedaemonian
26-05-2005, 08:57 AM
Closed my long Pound position at +36:D

Not much, but it helps defray the cost of my recent "Pounding"

I'm not feeling comfortable at the moment with what's happening...so I think I'll just stay on the sidelines and watch a bit.

arco
28-05-2005, 08:42 AM
Mentioned on the 23rd........


quote:GBP looks over done at the moment with various minor
supports positioned in the area down to Gann levels
at 8311/8189.

Yesterdays low turned out to be an amazing 8189.
The crystal ball is working again (perhaps);)

lakedaemonian
28-05-2005, 09:04 AM
I bought small bits at .8243 , .8210 , & .8200 but sold the lot late last night at .8263.

My "gut" tells me the Pound is oversold so I'll be focusing on finding another entry point to buy in the coming week.

peat
01-06-2005, 07:55 AM
hell of a ride shorting cable last nite.... +25 now but was a trade very nearly gone bad!! -60 at one stage was hurting , double down policy paid off on this occasion , not always a smart hing to do tho.

arco
02-06-2005, 05:56 PM
Gann level at 8066 could halt southward
progress for a spell.

Notice the oscillator is in serious divergence
mode.

lakedaemonian
02-06-2005, 08:13 PM
Exited a long position at 8192 for +50 yeeha!

But admittedly, it was a bit dicey [:0]

arco
07-06-2005, 09:24 AM
quote:2/6 Gann level at 8066 could halt southward
progress for a spell. Notice the oscillator is in
serious divergence mode.

The Gann level I mentioned held as support with
a low of 8078 and the oscillator proved its
value as a predictor, giving a nice gain
of 150 pips+/- for short term traders.

IMO the maximum run we should see is to 8554 where
a major wall will appear. Some resistamce
could also be encountered around 8310.

arco
16-06-2005, 09:54 AM
The north bound signals on this one have been
showing for some time (read previous posts).
Now we see a Morning Star derivative pattern
with the oscillator crossing zero positive.

Looking bullish (in the short term anyway).
Longer term still looks south bound.

slam
05-07-2005, 12:00 AM
Anyone else onboard this one?
Done 700pips in 7 days, taking a rest but more to come imo
(didn't get on at the top tho but)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
05-07-2005, 09:41 AM
Slam, no this one slipped (crashed more like it) under the radar, as I was focussed on other pairs, but as it has turned out was probably the best bang for ones buck

There's an old saying in the market - 'it's never too late to sell the pound' - it probably still applies....


Xerof

slam
05-07-2005, 10:00 AM
Hi Xerof
May get a few bounces accross the board today me thinks, but bias is still down on this and a few others so I wont be out for long if it bounces.
Cheers slam

Xerof
05-07-2005, 10:11 AM
Same here mate - waiting for bounces all over, but think it'll have to wait for NYK until we see next direction. Danger is they all go straight south, but here's hoping


Might be a good day for doing something else

Arco must be out watering the monarchs....

Xerof

slam
05-07-2005, 10:12 AM
retail sales better than expected so here comes the bounce.
1.7650:)

miner
05-07-2005, 10:22 AM
Guru slam ay;):D[8D].

arco
05-07-2005, 10:41 AM
quote:Xerof - Arco must be out watering the monarchs....

Sorry I'm late, just bin sweepin up Bat droppins.....

GBP. Theres an uptrend line in the vicinity and
Major Gann dug in at 7578, so will be expecting a
little hesitation at this point.

slam
05-07-2005, 12:39 PM
That better not be the bounce[:0]
if so, deadest cat I've ever seen

some one get the stick out and prod that thing please:D
I'm sure it's not dead

Xerof
05-07-2005, 01:05 PM
Looks to me like everything is wearing concrete gumboots Slam, but might be simply the lack of interest until later tonight. I still reckon its dangerous playing the long side unless you're fleet of foot and your targets aren't too ambitious. Traders appear to be happy to short, so maybe the sharks will squeeze the rates higher this evening.


Xerof

slam
05-07-2005, 01:12 PM
Agree Xerof
Also with US being shut last night, maybe a bit of stalling going on.
Just want a decent entry for the next short, with out staying up all night:(

Cheers
Slam

peat
05-07-2005, 01:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Sorry I'm late, just bin sweepin up Bat droppins.....

lol i dont know if they are from bats or not but theres certainly been lots of droppings around lately....

Xerof
05-07-2005, 01:29 PM
Presume you're talking currency directions Peat and not casting aspersions on the quality of recent postings on this site:D:D:D

miner
05-07-2005, 01:29 PM
Paint takes a while to dry in the cold of winter:(,the sun may come out around 5-6ish when the early bird pom's wake up:D.

peat
05-07-2005, 03:03 PM
xerof , the quality of postings on this site (excluding my drivel) is exceedingly high both technically and entertainment wise

i notice you're grilling the gold coast guru on the other side and getting good useful replies, isnt that dude amazing in his clarity and certainty no to mention his patience and benevolence.

re current positions , i am flat on all , looking for new entry points , supposedly the slopes are still slippery , with retracements not going to be all that substantial just yet.

slam
05-07-2005, 04:09 PM
You guys keep mentioning the other side[?][?]

Xerof
05-07-2005, 04:21 PM
www.global-view.com

There's a guru fund manager on the FX forum who's happy to display his views and levels - he seems to have access to global flows, at least his system is flow-based, and for sure, they're very accurate


Xerof

slam
05-07-2005, 04:26 PM
Cheers Xerof;)

Xerof
05-07-2005, 04:34 PM
Give you an example - in [u]early</u> June he said EUR would close the month at 1.1966. Well he was bloody miles away, it closed at 1.1957 AND he was 2 days late:D:D

And virtually the same for all other pairings too. That said, often the intra week bounces are rather higher than he's expecting but you'll get the drift of how to cope with that if you read his archives.

Well worth following him, eh Peat;);)

peat
05-07-2005, 06:23 PM
yup
i'm not sure why he still works tho. coz if I was as good as him i would do 10 super trades and then retire. but i guess everyone has some money management principles to adhere to. he is after all a pro fund manager. But before you ask, his fund is closed.

And no matter how accurate he is you still should apply sound m/m principles - kinda goes without saying , i just mention it coz you can see on the global view forum there are quite a few people who get a bit carried away and start to freak out when his highs (for a short) are taken out and its obvious from their desparate comments that they are over-leveraged. Eg lots of people got burned following his short recommendations on the kiwi as it climbed up to .74 but I bet he just kept selling , taking a longer time frame view than most can afford.
I follow him but give myself plenty of room to spare with building up a position
He does get a bit of stick sometimes tho coz his stop losses are very flexible. He will state a stop loss and then later say "oh yeh but I just used it as a way to get some better entry points " which is kind of wrong according to Forex 101 ,
But I forgive him.

That forum has a 'archive' feature where you can dig out someones posts from history , so if u are new there just do a search for martin to check out the record. Its pretty good

slam
05-07-2005, 06:49 PM
Thanks guys.
Always good to have another view to throw in the pot.
As far as other peoples posts go, I find they are most usfull just to draw your attention to something that you may not be watching etc.
Then it's up to the individual to do his own and that.
BTW
any of us get the last short on GBP?
Got in a bit late but still 50 pips in it[8D]
Cheers
Slam

arco
06-07-2005, 10:02 AM
Its possible Major Gann at 7578 could
cause a minor hiccup in the south bound move.

However, general direction IMO still $bullish.

arco
08-07-2005, 09:20 AM
Added more shorts here yesterday at 7485.

But I dislike NFP announcment day, so cautiously
watching it unfold.

http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/employ.htm

arco
11-07-2005, 02:59 PM
As mentioned on the Chit Chat thread,
I closed all S/T open positions Fri evening
which including Fridays GBP shorts - cashed up
at @ 7346. (+139)....can't be too greedy ;)

I had a Gann level showing at 7335 which seems
to be giving a little support............
Also the break of the old uptrend line could
require testing, so I expected we could see
some northward movement before cable heads
further south.

slam
20-07-2005, 03:57 PM
This one jumping around today[8D]
Eur/Gbp done well because of it

Cheers
Slam

arco
04-08-2005, 09:47 AM
I trust some members caught that nice up-move last
night. I managed to take 100-131 pips off 4 orders
closing them late evening circa 7813.

Now the current 15 min chart appears to be forming a
bull flag. So there may be room for a further run north.

slam
04-08-2005, 10:19 AM
Hi Arco
Sure did, 2 orders;)
Been waiting for a bit more of a retrace but don't know If I'll get it

We'll see

cheers
Slam

slam
12-08-2005, 07:10 AM
Looking like this may do a full retracment to circa 1.8300
Tightend the stops;)
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
12-08-2005, 08:56 PM
Yup Slam, 100% retracement looks to be the real deal


Xerof

slam
07-09-2005, 03:18 PM
Not sure on this one.
Has touched the 61.6 fib from May to July drop, but if it's a 5 wave 1 last up to go (after 4 finished that is)
If so .8839 target[?] This years down trend line

Anyone else had a thought on it?

slam

arco
07-09-2005, 03:45 PM
Slam

Theres a Major Gann at 8555 that may hold
northbound progress in the short term.

The downtrend line would fit in nicely
with a Butterfly target area.

Hows the EW principle coming along?

arco

arco
12-09-2005, 03:55 PM
A little below the Gann at 8555, 8500 was the
high which contained north bound movement.
Looking now for a possible fall towards
8188 before it moves north again.

slam
12-09-2005, 06:40 PM
Nicely timed call arco[8D]

arco
14-09-2005, 01:57 PM
Ticking away steadily.

I got filled on the exact figure 8188 as mentioned
Monday night.

I had a good feeling about the 3 eights....always
been lucky with eights, so...........
I placed a checky buy limit order and left it in o/n

Could be forming a Pennant on the 15m presently

+72 - stop at b/e

arco

slam
14-09-2005, 02:08 PM
Got mine at 8193, beat me by 5 pips arco
Beers on you then;)

Cheers
Slam


http://www.gifs.net/animate/drunkenmouse.gif;)

arco
14-09-2005, 02:13 PM
Slam

Cheers

http://www.gifs.net/animate/beer2.gif



:D

slam
23-09-2005, 07:19 AM
Couldn't sleep last night so got up and jumped on for 89 pips:D(love it when that happens, makes all that lake of sleep worth it)
Has bounced twice off 7880 so maybe some consolidation around here.
Imo I think we still have a short to play, looking for a bounce to re-enter

Cheers
Slam

arco
23-09-2005, 10:05 AM
Slam
quote:Couldn't sleep last night so got up and jumped on for 69 pips

Good to see you grabbing a few pips Slam.

I put some cheeky shorts on around 9.30 and was surprised
to see I had 132 pips this morning at 8 am.

Naturally I cashed them immediately.
Cant look a gift horse in the mouth. ;)

arco

slam
23-09-2005, 10:13 AM
Morning Arco
Good to see.
Any idea where to from here?
This market has got me a bit rattled lately and I'm not seeing a clear picture

Cheers
Slam

arco
23-09-2005, 10:40 AM
Hi Slam

There is a minor Gann support just below at 7822
with a slight divergence on the Oscillator. However,
I prefer to stay out for the time being until I can
get a clearer picture.

arco

arco
26-09-2005, 09:09 AM
The minor Gann at 7822 and Osc divergence
was breached and I re-entered short Friday
evening @ 7850.

Currently +123 with a bit more to go IMO

Next Major Gann circa 7578 with the high
of 21/7 @ 7615. (EW1? - R=S?).

slam
26-09-2005, 09:21 AM
Morning Arco
Bet me by 8 pips again, entered fri at 7842:)
Will double up if 7740 holds through the asian session

Cheers
Slam

arco
26-09-2005, 09:30 AM
Morning Slam

Yes, I was looking at a possible top-up
just below the recent pivot point.

Any mention of Xerof on the local news....
no search parties sent out yet for missing
walkers :D

slam
26-09-2005, 09:37 AM
No local news yet arco but will keep you posted:)
Offered to give Mr and Mrs Xerof a lift but they insisted on walking.:D

arco
27-09-2005, 09:28 AM
I got stopped at + 80.

However, this north bound move could just be a reaction to test the polarity change of the minor Gann at 7822 mentioned previous. The EOD candle is a 'Thrusting Pattern' which is considered bearish in a declining move.

So, watching for a possible re-entry signal at the exit or better price.

arco

slam
27-09-2005, 09:43 AM
Morning Arco
Took profit yesterday as well.
Now following the bounce will a sell just under.
See how we go

Cheers
Slam

slam
27-09-2005, 10:33 AM
Maybe jumping the gun, but gone short again:)
Cheers
Slam

arco
27-09-2005, 11:05 AM
Agree - low risk entry

TL break and test so 25% position @ 7780

Further orders stacked up below

arco

peat
27-09-2005, 12:43 PM
i tried to join you guys last nite at 1.7736 but was stopped out -14

Had another go today at lunchtime at 1.7767 , with a 27 pip trailing stop coz I cant access the platform when at work... and 27 coz I must keep losses to an absolute minimum or the a/c will blow and then it will be goodbye peat heheh.

slam
27-09-2005, 12:55 PM
Hi Pete
You still in then?

peat
27-09-2005, 01:00 PM
yes I'm in short stg @ 7767

arco
27-09-2005, 01:55 PM
OK Dear Friends

We are all in this boat together then...
currently +68 max :D

Just had my lunch and on checking its nice to see all my positions
have triggered.

My thoughts.
Just be cautious of the figure 7615 from 21/7. Not sure if thats a W1 ending - if so it might hold, but a break of that will change my EW count.

And Peat - good luck, - I would definately like to see you back in the green.


arco

slam
27-09-2005, 02:05 PM
Thanks for the info arco
And ditto for Pete, I know what it's like mate, I dropped half my capital in a week not so long ago, chasing ghosts and breaking rules.[B)]
Hang in there

Cheers
Slam

peat
27-09-2005, 02:35 PM
i'm possibly stopped out now as there has been a 27 pip retracement from the figures I have available on forex.com.
but thats cool , any profits are ok with me at the moment.
and thanks for the good wishes guys...

arco
27-09-2005, 02:46 PM
The current action is testing polarity cahnge.

Peat - nothing wrong with taking small profits initially - its a bit like scalping. Consider taking a proportion of your order off and leave a bit to run. You may just get lucky with that final balance. Once you build up more capital you can risk wider stops.

Currently +82 at max.

Slam you must be chuffed :D

arco

slam
27-09-2005, 03:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco




Currently +82 at max.

Slam you must be chuffed :D

arco






Sure am arco, just need that kiwi to fall over a bit more now:D

slam
28-09-2005, 07:07 AM
Morning All
Closed shorts and took th pips[8D]
Will look to re-enter on a bounce.
Notice on the 10m chart a triangle forming

Cheers
Slam

arco
28-09-2005, 07:18 AM
Morning Slam

Yes ditto. I placed a TP at 7650 before retiring and it was hit overnight. So a very nice little run and I will review the situation once I see the EOD.

arco

peat
28-09-2005, 07:19 AM
i had another bite at 7684 but my stop at 7708 got hit!
Kind of annoying coz the candle high was only 7705 during that time. So yeh tight stops are a double edged sword.
But I need them. Got a few pips on the Euro short as well. So twas an okay day.

slam
04-10-2005, 07:59 AM
Waiting for a break out on this one.
Pretty sure it will be north but not game to enter yet
Got one either side of the triangle;)

cheers
Slam

arco
04-10-2005, 08:16 AM
Morning Slam

Yes, I mentioned this on the Chit-Chat thread last night re GBP.

IMO there are a number of reasons to consider a reversal at this point may be possible.

1. The action has reached the Potential Reversal Zone (Butterfly target)

2. Reversal calculations have identified 4/10 as a likely date

3. There is possible Gann support @ 7578

arco

slam
04-10-2005, 08:23 AM
Morning Arco
Yep, has also touched 7520ish 4 times now in the last 24hours, so building some nice support around here.
As you say, next 24hours or so should show the way

Cheers
Slam

Dazza
04-10-2005, 03:45 PM
newbies pespective
at around 440 pm this afternoon

the pound

on a 1 day chart at 1 min,

showed 2 highs at , 7575 and 7578

howeva bearish divergance, was seen on RSI, MACD as well as momentum

hense conclusion = short


would u say dat is about right?

slam
04-10-2005, 05:14 PM
Hi Dazza

We seem to be at loggerheads today
I went long on this on the dip

1min chart to short a time period for me, 1hour is the smallest frame except for entry points.
Contrarian view;)

Cheers
Slam

Dazza
04-10-2005, 05:32 PM
saw a scoop pattern formation on 1 hour 5 min frame

entered at 579 a bit late though, stupid shower

should have entered at 566ish

looking for 20 pips only though

Dazza
04-10-2005, 06:10 PM
well there goes 23 pips &gt;&lt;

oh well i learnt something at the expense of $$

arco
05-10-2005, 02:27 PM
Originally posted 3/10 on the Chit-Chat thread.


quote:IMO there are a number of reasons to consider a reversal at this point may be possible.

1. The action has reached the Potential Reversal Zone (Butterfly target)

2. Reversal calculations have identified 4/10 as a likely date

3. There is possible Gann support @ 7578

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/05102005_butt_186.gif


Entered long at 7564.........see how we go.

arco

slam
05-10-2005, 03:38 PM
Hi Arco
Yep entered 7552 yesterday
Currently +68
Looking ok too
Might take some more soon since it's brocken 7619
See if it holds above
Long EUR as well:)

Cheers
slam

Dazza
05-10-2005, 03:38 PM
arco
for a 2 day chart with 30 min interval
around october 5 0000 time
would u say that is a doji star or a morning star?

or both/

arco
05-10-2005, 04:09 PM
Slam

Good going. I also had an order in at 7530 but the action missed collecting it by a couple of pips around 21.00 hrs[V]

Dazza

Charts from differnt venders can vary however on my charts the action is in an uptrend at that 00.00 and you cannot have a Morning Star in an uptrend. Its not a typical Doji either because it has a body.

arco

arco
05-10-2005, 04:12 PM
PS Slam

I added more at 7588..... (+ 34)

arco

peat
05-10-2005, 06:59 PM
The [POUND] is off its best levels although remains surprisingly buoyant as we enter the first session of the 2 day BOE meeting. Although a very minor series, the Nationwide confidence index revealed a 17 month low for UK consumers to continue the run of weaker data from this vital sector of the economy. Whilst there is no expectation for change from the BOE, evidence of waning consumer demand is factored into dovish 2006 rate outlooks, and is seen stemming Gbp's performance mid term. However, in the very short term market speculators look to have got ahead of themselves and continue to unwind oversold risk. Looking ahead CIPs services data, (seen 54.9 Sep from 55.2), and BRC shop prices offer some interest between 8.30/9.30GMT.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

peat
05-10-2005, 08:00 PM
oh and by the way i joned in the longs at 1.7620 +33

loving this contrarianism

arco
05-10-2005, 08:41 PM
Well done Peat :D

The Butterfly, the reversal date, the divergence and the Gann clusters all gave us a low risk trade, but lets keep a close watch on the action....just in case

arco

Dazza
05-10-2005, 09:12 PM
i as in at 7615 :P 33 pips now all good :P

peat
06-10-2005, 01:45 AM
theres beena bit of a test of our resolve goin on here....:(
(a system generated sms msg alerted me)
hangin in for now tho.

slam
06-10-2005, 07:01 AM
Morning All
Bit of an over night tussle between Bulls and Bears
Hopefully the Bulls have won
Bound to happen when you are looking at a reversal after 900 odd pips
Hope everyone survived unscathed[B)]

Cheers
Slam

Dazza
06-10-2005, 07:35 AM
boo hoo &gt;&lt;
got stopped out of both over night
EUR 9 pip loss
GBP 5 pip loss

i went to bed with a 60 pip gain total

mm ill rememberthis, like arco said should have taken profits while there are !

peat
06-10-2005, 08:21 AM
yes any stop i might have put in would have been hit as well Dazza thats why I try and avoid using them, tho of course this has its own risks.... GBP is quite volatile thus increasing the risk you are stopped out without the trend actually changing.
As I said , I use my platforms SMS alerts to notify me of levels being broached , then in my sleepy stupor I make a decision myself rather than have a spike take my position out. Last nite I decided to hang in even at the -40 level.

[|)][|)][|)][|)]

arco
06-10-2005, 08:53 AM
Grab a profit when you can, and I now wish I had taken the 70 odd that were available when I posted last night.

My stop turned out to be 10 pips too tight so I got stopped for +23 pips on one and a zero loss on the other.

This is just the possible start of a reversal so there will be other opportunities to grab a slice of the action.

arco

peat
06-10-2005, 11:13 AM
anyone got suggestions on how to handle this trade now that I actually have a +ve buffer in place?
I will set a fixed stop at breakeven - theres no way I want this trade to go negative now.
But, I'm wondering if I should set a large trailing stop eg 60-100 (note how volatile this pair is - it seems to me anything less than a 60 pip stop will be gobbled up through normal oscillation) and just let it run with the worst case scenario being no profit or loss but also allowing for the possibility that if we do have a major trend reversal I will capitalise to the max

Decisions decisions ... :(

slam
06-10-2005, 12:38 PM
Well managed to stay in through last nights fracas and oh so glad
Looking nice chaps;)

Cheers
Slam

Dazza
06-10-2005, 02:19 PM
nice 1 slam

i am kind of regretting to put my stop so tight, could have gained 100+ pips on both trades oh well...

on a brighter note im up 550+ pips shorting the energy index in oz :P

slam
06-10-2005, 05:01 PM
nice Dazza
Where's our thread on that one;)

Slam

arco
06-10-2005, 05:51 PM
Dazza

I presume you are refering to S&P/ASX 200 Energy (^AXEJ). How are you shorting that index?

arco

Dazza
06-10-2005, 08:20 PM
yes i am arco

though its not fx, shall we create a thread here?

i use cmc for that arco, 1% margin, though quite big volatility and also spreads

still cant complain when ive made nearly 700 pips in 2 days?

though ive made heaps of mistakes &gt;&lt;

peat
06-10-2005, 08:34 PM
stopped out at 1.7694
+74
a nasty little downdraft occurred right in front of me !
cant complain at this stage tho.

arco
06-10-2005, 09:26 PM
Peat

Well done taking a profit. GBP has to come to terms with a possible change of direction.

Dazza
Yes, start a thread, and also tell us where you get your chart from as it doesnt appear in the list from my data supplier.

arco

Dazza
06-10-2005, 09:30 PM
peat incidently i shorted the GBP at 7687
limit 20 pips though c if i can make $20 be4 i sleep

peat
07-10-2005, 07:18 AM
dammmm hahah - absolute confirmation of your view now arco
this reversal looks very similar to Jul reversals to me.... viewing daily graphs eg
might wait for some pullback now tho before considering reentry....

peat
07-10-2005, 08:56 AM
and arco I didnt take that profit - it took me heheh

well last nites action confirms a theory that an economic statistic (it was some UK manufacturing report released last nite that made cable fall) will of course affect the price action but mostly doesnt affect the overall trend.
i was spouting that to myself , but unfortunately didnt act on it.

slam
07-10-2005, 09:00 AM
Morning All
Still long, raised stops to .7648
Will pick up more on a dip if there is one
First target 1.78ish, 38.2 fib and just above Aug 31 low

Cheers
Slam

peat
07-10-2005, 07:45 PM
[GBP/USD] continues to prove a difficult play against the Usd with the Pound independently weak, this reflected in the rally for Eur/Gbp. The cross has now broken cleanly above the 200 day moving average at 0.6850 amidst heavy UK fund demand, and a likely 0.6900 extension should build upon demand from the markets more short term focused speculators. Mixed data with the tame 0.3% GDP forecast from NIESR, (slowest since May), balanced to a degree by a more healthy sales report from John Lewis. However, the general signs from recent UK data imply a greater chance of a BOE rate cut again. Thus we have seen the bias to sell Gbp strength persist, the sharp stop fuelled drop from 1.7760 to 1.7710 since Europe's arrival underlining the danger of speculative Cable longs.

arco
10-10-2005, 11:52 AM
Major Gann support at 7578.

Just trying a wee long at 7584.

arco

arco
10-10-2005, 02:06 PM
This trade could perhaps be classed as an example of a B2 reversal as mentioned in "Methods of a Wall Street Master" by Vic Sperandeo.

Ticking away nicely + 27

Gann co-ordinates above at 7822 and 8066

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101005_b2_661.gif

arco

Xerof
10-10-2005, 06:48 PM
On the right track Arco?

Which do you prefer?


http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/7141/gbpgartleys17pd.png


Xerof

Xerof
11-10-2005, 07:41 AM
snared some cable at 1.7527 overnite, right in the apex of the chart displayed above. Stop now at breakeven, as not entirely confident about this.

Major Gann must be lurking somewhere around the 1.7530 level eh Arco?

arco
11-10-2005, 01:25 PM
Hi Xerof.

I was stopped out - 29. [V] Now I wish I had taken the 30 pips there was available before I retired to bed. Anyway, can't win them all.

Gann is at 7578 and there could be another B2 happening at the moment.

arco

Xerof
11-10-2005, 02:25 PM
Stopped also for no pain or gain. Still watching for signs of support - maybe european open will clarify. Should also allow a bit of leeway as its a daily chart I'm using

Xerof

arco
12-10-2005, 03:12 PM
I got this idea when I found one of Mrs Arco's old red and green harlequin jumpers in the attic. Amazingly it seems to work ;)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101205-wgrid_977.gif

Weekly Chart

Hopefully the red-green grid will give a clue to the next reversal point. Action should use the lines as support or resistance. I'll be looking around 1.7090 if the recent pivot low breaks.

arco

Xerof
12-10-2005, 04:29 PM
Thats a Gann Mesh, isn't it?

arco
12-10-2005, 04:42 PM
Yes, I agree it certainly looks like a Darn Mess.

And.......its actually called an 'Arco Net' and is used for catching stray candles, or trapping unwary Butterflies ;)

But for my latest trick - feast your eyes on this huge Madonna.............

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101205-w_164.gif

Weekly Chart

Its the Butterfly scenario if the recent pivot low breaks. In such a case I expect the action to move into the red and maybe towards the top portion of the blue box.

Now, heres Mrs Arco with mi curry - 'bout time.

arco
18-10-2005, 11:18 AM
Hi All

I intended to post this GBP chart yesterday and unfortunately ran out of time.

A nice Wolfe Wave setup was showing on the 1 hr, and this has given over 200 pips in the last 24 hours. [8D]

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101605c_179.gif

arco
19-10-2005, 10:50 AM
Here's the updated WW chart short term trade giving a maximum of 309 pips in under 48hrs.

arco


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101905aww_164.gif

Xerof
25-10-2005, 09:55 AM
No-one turned up to bat :(:(, but sold at 17721 last night. I reckon this one is ready to tank - anyone agree?

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/2491/gbpusd9pv.png

Xerof

arco
25-10-2005, 10:23 AM
Hi Xerof

Mmm....There is a completed Gartley on the daily, but of course Gartleys are prone to continue on to become Butterflies. So thats not yet conclusive. Oscillator is still above zero and on a rising slope.

Waiting in the wings.

arco

arco
25-10-2005, 04:04 PM
Pigs might just fly, of course...........

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_942.gif

Xerof
25-10-2005, 04:17 PM
A shady pair of Madonna's there Arco :D:D

Noted re mutation possibilities - hoping Gartley comes through tho[^][^]

Does the Law of Alternation apply to G's and B's? I have the last decent formation on my daily as a B

Ever hopeful Xerof
http://img471.imageshack.us/img471/2073/pig8xb.jpg

cut for 61 pips

Xerof
25-10-2005, 08:19 PM
Go Cable!!!

http://www.gifs.net/animate/man2.gif

Have a good evening Arco :D:D

arco
25-10-2005, 09:39 PM
Evening Xerof

Trust you are still not short?

GPB Flying north as expected and still winging its way higher - circa 130 pips in the last 5 hours.

Re "Does the Law of Alternation apply to G's and B's?"

I have not found that to be the case.

arco

Xerof
25-10-2005, 10:02 PM
No - not short - see edit of my 5.17pm post - was hearing UK clearers were 'reaching' for a couple of billion for the Saudi's. Didn't get it in the 30's, but 61 pips in the flying piggy bank. :)

Very nice call Arco - well done

BTW, been poring over the USD.CAD charts and happened to look at the weekly - there it was, a bullish engulfing candle 2 weeks ago...first one since March.... and methinks a close above circa 1.1900 this month, will yield a BEC on the monthly as well[8D][8D]

eva so 'umble - Xerof

arco
26-10-2005, 08:10 AM
Morning All

Nice run overnight giving circa 230 pipsso far.

Ain't too shabby, even for a seasoned Butterfly collector. :D

Good start to the week...........

arco

Xerof
26-10-2005, 08:19 AM
Fantastic effort Arco - hats off to you.

Quite a few changes to the landscape overnight - should be a heavy posting day...

Xerof

arco
26-10-2005, 08:41 AM
Still awaiting Rooters EOD - not due until 10.15 am.............so can't do much yet. In the meantime heres the updated 3 hr chart.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102605_130.gif

arco

slam
26-10-2005, 08:47 AM
Arco
btw, thanks for some great charts as of late, right on the button.
Long weekends obviously agree with you.:)
Should have had on myself maybe

Cheers
slam

arco
27-10-2005, 01:48 PM
Hi Slam

Yep, those long weekends are great.

Narrowing Wedge / Wolfe Wave scenario?

The print is now higher @ 7810 than it was when I made this chart, however it could be worth keeping an eye on for a possible shorting opportunity if the action falls back below the last pivot low.

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102705aww_781.gif

arco
27-10-2005, 03:02 PM
Multiple WW's lead to the conclusion a reversal may possibly take place within the yellow box.

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102705bww_999.gif

Xerof
27-10-2005, 03:23 PM
Arco, fairly vicious moves on this over the last few days. Do you consider your original butterfly still valid, or was last nights retracement too much?


TIA

Xerof

arco
27-10-2005, 03:39 PM
Hi Xerof

The potential reversal zone is still circa 7822-8066.

Its a large range but incorporates the old bullish and a smaller bearish Butterfly. The WW charts I posted indicate a possible reversal area around that 7822.

Ideally we need to see a positive reversal signal/pattern to confirm the move is over.


arco - checking his Piggy Bank :)

Xerof
27-10-2005, 03:43 PM
Thanks - 7822 or 7922? looks like 7922 on your chart...

arco
27-10-2005, 03:49 PM
Hi Xerof

Yes, my apologies I got the green blob in the wrong place. (Trying to keep my eyes on too many things at once).

7822 is the correct figure.

The action is approaching the large WW target line - currently sitting circa 7850. It will be interesting to see if it halts progress.

arco

Xerof
27-10-2005, 04:12 PM
quote:Trying to keep my eyes on too many things at once

Arco, you need to avert your gaze from page 4 of USD.JPY thread, and concentrate lad, concentrate :D:D

arco
28-10-2005, 10:14 AM
GBP managed a high of 7903 (Within the Butterfly/Gann target)

If you rode the beast north to the target zone (see previous chart) you should/could have gotten upto 120 pips (max)on a day trade.

.........and if you reversed the beast south there has been a max of circa 85 so far.

Perhaps the peak is a HEAD.

I will try to update the chart later.

GTA - arco

arco
31-10-2005, 01:59 PM
Attaching the weekly grid which is still containing the movement in an orderly form. I'm anticipating the action to enter the dotted boxes in the LH lower corner.

The short indicated on 26th has gathered upto 185 pips max so far for Southerners. :)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102905arcogrid_235.gif

arco

Xerof
31-10-2005, 08:03 PM
You mentioned possible head a couple of posts ago Arco - looks like nice right shoulder forming currently, for GBP (as well as EUR, NZD, possibly AUD too)

Adding......

Xerof

arco
01-11-2005, 09:11 AM
Morning Everyone

The short positions indicated on 26th/27th have now gathered upto 220 pips max so far for Southerners, and are still above the target zone. I closed my position off at 8am and will re-evaluate a little later.

Due to daylight saving changes in US Rooters EOD date will not be available until 11.15 am.

GTA - arco

slam
14-12-2005, 03:34 PM
Afternoon All

Well after a break from FX I'm back in.
Had to do some re-training if you know what I mean.;)

Went long on this on the 12th circa 160 pips atm.
Looking for 1.7880 as first exit

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
14-12-2005, 09:10 PM
Welcome back Slam

December has been an up month for the pound for as long as I can remember....usually Middle East buying at year end from what I recall from my banking days...seems old habits die hard....Deutsche bank has 18300 as a target by y/e btw

Xerof

slam
19-01-2006, 07:05 AM
Closed a 90 pip short on this pair from yesterday.
Will short again on a bounce

Cheers
Slam

slam
24-01-2006, 09:48 AM
Hi All

Went long last night on the retrace .7768
Overbought on the hourlys but doesn’t look like stopping atm

Got a tight stop ;)

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
24-01-2006, 10:18 AM
Nice Slam,

I've been monitoring this since early Jan but have been reluctant to post this chart formation as it got rather messy on this C leg. Volatile puppy, but the formation is gaining some credibility on a macro view.

Watching and waiting ........

http://img468.imageshack.us/img468/522/gbp1jx.png

Xerof

slam
24-01-2006, 10:52 AM
Hi Xerof

Thanks for the chart
Yep been sitting and watching this for the last 600 odd pips:(
wondering what it would do (Duh)
Took the punt on the bounce once it broke the dec high and retraced.

Will pick up more if the hourly settles back from overbought

That's some target you got there[8D]

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
24-01-2006, 11:10 AM
Unfortunately the target could be anywhere between here and the 1.618% retracement level - just have to wait and see I guess, but if this range break has any legs, then we should see it into the low 1.80's

Such a progression could also drag NZD and AUD higher too, confirming my 'outrageous' suggestion of a gartley or butterfly formation on the Kiwi:D:D

Xerof

slam
24-01-2006, 12:09 PM
closed at 112 pips
too hot for me, will look to re-enter lower

Cheers
Slam

arco
01-02-2006, 02:28 PM
Perhaps Mr Gann will assist..........

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/020106_gbp.usd_115.gif

arco

peat
01-02-2006, 03:09 PM
and given their similarity this would apply to Eur as well?

Tho Eur/GBP has been going down over last week or so (my demo a/c is +50 on that pair... ) so perhaps GBP would be the better option.

arco
01-02-2006, 03:23 PM
Hi Peat

Yes it certainly looks that way with last nights turn on multiple supports

regards - arco

slam
03-02-2006, 11:12 AM
Hi all

Nice bounce of the 61.8 fib 30th low/1st high last night
Lets see if it keeps going

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
07-02-2006, 01:01 PM
I mentioned Friday that there looked to be a butterfly developing for a trip north. Hindsight is wonderful of course, and I was expecting the African nipple pink-tit to fly, when in fact the pesky ol' cabbage white was lurking, with its right wing delayed 24 hours by consolidation ahead of Non Farm payrolls.....bah, tsk tsk

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/7218/gbp9ml.png

May not be far off completion tho, at 127.2% - watching, with net in hand....

Xerof

Xerof
08-02-2006, 06:24 PM
Possibility of completion of that pesky cabbage white butterfly last evening, with quite a nice turn just a fraction below the 127.2% level.

Netted some today at 17445 with a s/l at 17405.

C wot happins

Xerof

Xerof
08-02-2006, 10:47 PM
Hangin in by the skin of me teef [xx(][xx(] with 08 offered not quite good enough to trigger my 'stop if 05 offered'. But may be gone by morning. [B)] Have faith in the cabbage white....

g'nite

Xerof

Sulman
25-02-2006, 12:37 AM
I'm wondering if this may be a valid Crab? to watch??

http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/5944/gbpusd5qb.jpg

Xerof
25-02-2006, 03:58 PM
Yes, and since you posted its moved a bit lower. Did you take the trade?

I see the hallmarks of Vegas Wealth Builder too!

Xerof

Sulman
25-02-2006, 06:42 PM
Sadly I didn't trade enough make me happy Xerof. &lt;LOL&gt;

Vegas' system has great visual merit. It helps anyway.

Note how quickly one can also learn to adapt previously undiscovered indicators like Camarilla Levels to good purpose. :)

I'm getting accustomed to a better flexibility in trade strategies and... I've only just discovered the metatrader.org site (amongst others).

Sulman

Sulman
27-02-2006, 03:59 PM
Not quite a Butterfly but seems to have taken.
http://img462.imageshack.us/img462/9631/gbpusd27a0lr.jpg

arco
10-06-2006, 10:21 AM
Weekly prints an interesting Blue Morpho


http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/061006_gbp.usd_w.gif

arco
28-07-2006, 03:22 PM
Its a wet day on the Sunshine Coast, so with a bit of time on my hands heres my possible EW count on the weekly GBP.

http://detachedtrader.com/forum/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=42

regards - arco

roddy
12-09-2006, 11:47 AM
Hi All
went long this morning on this pair,8662-stop 8614 looking for a reversal
reason for probable trade
&gt;boucing off Gann support.
&gt;DOji
&gt;bouncing off medium term trend line
&gt;50%fib level

cheers cadet roddy

arco
13-09-2006, 09:10 AM
Hi Roddy

Looks like you should be doing OK with this one.

I mentioned on the JPY thread that a big move in GBP was about to happen, and that gave circa 160 pips so far.

Further confirmations now given on the EOD with a Morning Star off Gann support and the uptrend line. Bit of possible hesitation to watch for circa 8800 coupled with the oscillator still being below the mid line.

regards - arco

roddy
13-09-2006, 11:16 AM
Hi Arco,
i exited trade at 8738 for 76 pips, waiting to see which way its going to go on the 15 min chart,a wedge is forming, i see the Morning star (bottom reversal pattern) but not until you mentioned it.

Also straddled kiwi announcement was filled at 6427 i could of exited near 6454 but thought it would reverse possibly 15 pip then find support which never happened,

possible reasons could be

&gt; kiwi is weak at the moment as there was no follow through after retail trade was up .5%
&gt;Gann fan says resistance is at 6450
&gt;havent seen a close above medium term trend line
&gt;possibly might be seeing a falling three pattern emerging
&gt;not sure whether straddle is a good strategy or not?and i executed it poorly
however no damage done with stop being hit!

still polishing boots.
cadet roddy

roddy
13-09-2006, 02:26 PM
Hi
Rentered long trade looks like an ascending triangle is forming on the 5 and 15 min chart also medium trend line is support

cheers cadet roddy

roddy
13-09-2006, 09:33 PM
hi
out of trade,GBP has broken trend line,
have been away from desk so missed 60 level,but
have 84 pip over the two trades

cheers cadet roddy

arco
15-09-2006, 10:15 AM
Follow on from 12/9..............

GBP still bearing fruit with a max of circa 310 pips so far.
Some profit taken off the table, and trailing stop on balance.

Hoping for more in the short/medium term.

GTA - arco

roddy
15-09-2006, 11:18 AM
Hi Arco,
Yes i jumped on the trend last night in at 8774 and out 8860, took half profit and left a traling stop but was to stingy with trailing stop
so of available 310 have taken 168 pip so far.

cheers cadet roddy

roddy
26-09-2006, 07:31 PM
Hi all

GBP looking a little toppy with 2 Doji eod any thoughts on a possible short as it has just dropped below 1.9000 levels

cheers cadet

arco
26-09-2006, 08:10 PM
Hi Roddy

Certainly looks a bit black if the EOD stays as it is now. However, that will require a check of the final print tomorrow AM for confirmation. I will be considering longer term trades at that point.

Other than that I had a short term scalping signal @ 8990 which was good for circa 48 pips............

regards - arco

roddy
26-09-2006, 09:27 PM
Hi Arco
o- kay will await tomorrows print.

great trading on the scalp and cheeky trade(kiwi),any thoughts of moving to Havelock,
where yourself and xerof could expand the butterfly farm while exchanging vintages!

cheers cadet roddy

arco
11-10-2006, 03:44 PM
Theres an area of possible Gann support circa 8541-8555

May be worth watching for a possible reversal pattern
around that level.

regards - arco

arco
20-10-2006, 11:48 AM
I mentioned this possibility on the 11th

Gann calcs working well again, although it took awhile to build up the base for an explosive move north overnight

+95 (Averaged)

GTA - arco

arco
21-10-2006, 04:25 PM
Closed 50% off last night at +170,
balance currently +144

U.K. Third-Quarter Expansion Was Faster Than Expected (Bloomberg)

``Manufacturing and industrial production have bounced a bit and services are reasonably buoyant as well,'' said Robin Marshall, an economist at Smith and Williamson Investment Management, which has assets of about $15 billion. ``The rate increase in November is a done deal.''

Bit late mate........the charts told us well prior to your announcment ;)

arco
23-05-2007, 08:05 AM
Morning All

Last nights long entry (mentioned on the EUR thread)just
missed my 50 pip target by 5 pips as I slept blissfully unaware [V],

- however, still showing +21 at the moment.

regards - arco

peat
23-05-2007, 11:32 AM
Eur/Gbp slipped overnite so yours definitely was the better option. However I am still hanging in on the Eur Long

This was how I calculated my fibs I referred to y'day
http://img517.imageshack.us/img517/1685/gbpusddaily23052007of4.jpg

arco
24-05-2007, 09:39 AM
Daily FX
British Pound: Strong Gains after BoE Contemplates 25 or 50
Wednesday May 23, 5:34 pm ET
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist strategist@dailyfx.com

The British pound is the story of the day as hawkish minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting spurs across the board gains in the currency pair. Given the recent weakness in UK economic data, the market had anticipated tepid comments from the central bank. The general belief was that the Bank of England did not want to do anything that would take the country?s exchange rate beyond 2.0. However instead of contemplating a 25bp hike versus no hike, the central bank actually debated 25 versus 50. Even though the members voted unanimously in favor of a quarter point hike, the fact that they were considering more versus less was enough to bring some bulls back into the market. More specifically, the BoE said that there is a "high probability of another rise later in the year." The last part of this statement suggests that June may be too early to expect another move, especially given the recent pieces of economic data. Therefore even though we could see further pound strength, the rally could be limited.

arco
24-05-2007, 09:16 PM
These seasonal charts from www.seasonalcharts.com may come in helpful.........

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/futures/currenci/bp/chart.gif

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/futures/currenci/bp/chart.gif

arco
15-06-2007, 07:05 PM
Maybe we will see Cable fall towards the Gann area
9533 - especially if the Butterflies are in a good mood.


arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/coffee.gif

arco
19-06-2007, 11:41 AM
Cable could be lining up now for a short IMO....

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/061907Cable.gif

arco

peat
19-06-2007, 12:16 PM
yeh at 1.9845 its moved back to a 62% retracement of its fall from 1.9970 (to 1.9620) and this is also a 261% fib extn of its first move up from 1.9620 to 1.9708.
It reminds me of the Eur/Jpy post I made on 10/05.

Only thought was , noticing that Eur is in a similar formation to GBD - so if we assume that will short as well , and yet you (Arco) are short USD/Chf which generally moves opposite to Eur. So just wondering about the conflicting scenarios here. Maybe you're talking different time frames tho.

arco
19-06-2007, 01:07 PM
Hi Peat

The Swissy trade went slightly over target at the outset, although I did manage to scale my way into eventually averaging a profitable position.

As mentioned last week it was always intended to be a short term wave trade, and happily I've now closed all positions with an acceptable profit.

regards - arco

arco
19-06-2007, 07:23 PM
Nice......the Gann reversal point worked in good fashion.....
nice back lash at 9858 for a quick 20+/- pips scalp.

..and thats how the Swissy trade should have worked.

peat
19-06-2007, 07:41 PM
soo Mr Gann does cloud surfing ! Gann Ten.

arco
19-06-2007, 09:02 PM
Gann meets Ichimoku - a powerful combination :D

At the end of the day, when many indicators tell the
same story its pretty good confirmation.

peat
20-06-2007, 12:33 PM
you were using a daily chart to scalp 20 pips tho?

arco
20-06-2007, 02:01 PM
Hi Peat

The Gann calcs are taken from daily chart,
- entry confirmation lower time frames (15m-30m chart).

In this case........
Double Top with almost a Bear Engulf on 15 min and
Double Top with DCC on 30 min.
Both outside the BBs and with divergence on Oscs.

Scalping is only secondary to the main idea of
taking the long pip trip, but it keeps the mind
active.

arco

arco
20-06-2007, 10:31 PM
Hello All

Todays Gann resistance calc based on yesterdays EOD comes in at 9901.

And circa 9923 is probably the highest the action can
print to form a bearish Gartley pattern.

Therefore, still waiting for a confirmation reversal pattern
to see if a longer term short is in the making.

regards - arco

arco
21-06-2007, 08:45 AM
Hi All

The new Gann calc for today is 9918, so with Cable currently being
supported by that, and if it remains above, the polarity has changed.
(i.e resistance=support)

Also considering Gartleys are notorious for growing into Butterflies,
it pays to be very cautious around a Gartley set-up before commiting
to a trade.

The next major Gann resistance is today sitting at 2.009 and a trip to
this area would create the Butterfly circa Fib1272/1618 and thats where I will look for a reversal pattern to appear (if it gets in that area).

So today may give some day trading opportunities to the north, and
these could be based on any bullish patterns appearing off Gann 9918.

I will re-evaluate south bound targets when a bearish reversal appears
because the Jan-April Butterfly harmonics may change depending on how
high the current action goes.

regards -arco

dumbass
26-08-2007, 08:07 AM
watching......... to see if this daily bullish bat may hit the 618 retracement before

reversing , big weekly butterfly in progress.

arco
28-09-2007, 04:54 PM
Northern Rock has borrowed GBP5billion ex the BoE's discount window - causing some selling off in Cable as risk aversion in the UK reignites.

dumbass
24-10-2007, 07:01 PM
short in progress at 20500 this could be start of abc correction

to around 20250

but got to watch possibilty of 5th wave extension to 20600

arco
24-10-2007, 07:57 PM
Hi DB

I havent discounted the possibility that the shape
could turn out to be an unusual Gartley with B618/D886.

rgds - arco

dumbass
24-10-2007, 08:34 PM
evening arco

it certainly reversed right on 886 so batty thing could be in play

thats why i felt this was worth a short but still reckon may run 206 before reversal

dumbass
26-10-2007, 01:53 PM
still grinding higher towards 2.0550 - 2.0600
for short

dumbass
29-10-2007, 07:14 PM
well.... here goes short 20574 gbp

long usd cad 9582

arco
29-10-2007, 10:20 PM
DB

What are you basing your entries on?

....and where are your stops and targets?

rgds - arco