RBD - Restaurant Brands

[Placebo]

Macdunk the nine times table is easy, it's the seven times table that is the kicker. I for the life of me still can't tell what seven times six is; or six times seven for that matter. 43? 72? Ach! See, just no good.

GOTT IN HIMMELL EST EIN ENGLANDER SCHWEINHUNT!!!!

Phaedrus don't take the bait. They're just wallowing in their own misery. I have a couple of kids who react the same way when you point out the obviousness of their faults... the stuff they already know. Nobody wants you to point to that great fat pimple on the end of their nose. But sometimes it needs to be done.

Don't let the b*stards grind you down. Fight the good fight!!

Kia kaha bro! Be shtrong!!

[duncan macgregor]

HIAWATHA, You are not that stupid that you dont realize that the sharemarket is an on going auction with us all in competition, buying and selling. If that is not competing then what is?. I must admit that some of the lesser people will compete for shares in RBD or TEL where some of the more astute investors will stand and watch. Yhe sillier some people are, the easier it is for others so keep investing dont let me put you off. :D:DMacdunk

[ratkin]

What are the stats on traders, 90% go broke? Im sure the long term investors do better as a group. Even the ones who invest in the likes of RBD.

look at all the hundreds of books on trading , if these people were any good then they wouldnt have to make their money as authors.
The big TA con is kept going by the system sellers , the brokers who thrive on the high number of commisions they recieve , the data sellers , the software sellers and all the other hangers on who espouse trading but only seem to make money from talking about it.

As soon as times turn tough all the trading converts will lose money , their systems and software will end up on trade me for a few dollars. Meanwhile people will still be eating kfc and the value of RBD will eventually be realised

An amusing little thread

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by ratkin


The investor would have largely avoided all the companies which were grossly overvalued and any mistakes would have been relatively harmless (like rbd).

Traders also make the mistake of thinking that investors go down with a sinking ship. This is not necessarily the case at all. As soon as the fundamentals of a company deteriorate or the price moves far above the companies value then the skilled investor will take profits.

As long as the investor selects stocks wisely, exits if the fundamentals deteriorate, ignores short term noise and doom and gloom merchants, stays invested and reinvests dividends etc, then that investor will beat 90% of traders in the long term, will of spent far less time and energy on the markets.


In an effort to bring this thread back on topic...

I think all of you guys are missing the point. Investing is not about being 'right' or 'wrong' or 'buying in if things are going well' or 'exiting if the fundamentals deteriorate'.

Investing is a case of constantly comparing 'price' which is what the market is offering with 'value' which is what it is you are getting.
If RBD announces an underlying earnings deterioration of 20% and the price falls by 30%, generally this is a signal to 'buy'. If OTOH the price only falls 10% in response to a 20% earnings downgrade that might be a signal to sell.

We know that the market in the short term has a tendency to over-react to news, both good and bad. So I never seek to buy at 'fair value', always 'below fair value'. Likewise I never seek to sell at 'fair value', always 'above fair value'.

I regard RBD as an excellent investment candidate because the potential RBD investor (and that means everyone reading this) is more sophisticated than the typical RBD consumer. I'll bet the typical investor would spend twice as many nights out at restaurants with waiters than they would at their local 'KFC and McDonalds', assuming they have ever been into the doors of the latter at all. Thus the investor sees food like KFC and Pizza Hut as 'rubbish' all the time assuming their own sophisticated tastes are 'right' and anyone who eats let alone invests in a company like RBD as a fool.

I have some news for those sophisticates out there. KFC and PH do not care what you think of their food because *you are not their target market*! And just because you are not their target market that doesn't mean that KFC and PH cannot operate very effectively by zeroing in on an entirely different target market of customers. I believe the principal reason that RBD has been 'cheap' since 1999 is because most potential investors cannot relate to what RBD are doing and see the whole operation as somehow 'beneath them' and 'not worthy of their investment consideration'.

Fortunately I don't suffer from such 'investment pretentiousness' and see RBD for what it is: an average company at a rock bottom price.

There is no doubt RBD management have made mistakes. But they have also got several things right (like the Eagle Boys takeover, selling out of their Pizza Hut real estate before they quit the sites and the KFC makeovers that have been widely praised by franchise parent YUM). IMO the assumption that RBD is simply an overpaid flock of bungling executives who will never get anything right is selling the company short.

Probably the worst thing about 'the RBD investment experience' for me has been, with hindsight, the float was overpriced given what we know now about the business conditions of the ensuing ten years. If the shares had been floated at $1.30ish (where the shares have spent more of their trading life than any other price band) I believe the market perception of RBD would be quite different to what it is now.

Personally, I believe that every purchase I have made of RBD shares has been val

[winner69]

Snoopy ..... interesting that it comes across that you use the term 'investor' like you would use the term 'owner'

Do you feel like an 'owner' of RBD?

I see that nearly 100% of the shares in RBD change hands in the last year - would seem to suggest that there are very few 'owners' of RBD - 'owners' used in the context that generally most people 'own' their dog for life.

But them we don't really want to get into a discussion into who 'owns' RBD do we.

[Balance]

Snoopy makes a fair point and a good point.

When just about everyone is negative on a stock, it is time to take a serious look. The Warehouse in the last two years is a great case in point. Everyone got so negative on it that the shares traded as low as $3.20 and was still $3.50 last year.

I am not so sure that RBD has sufficient gloom and doom built into the share price yet however. It needs a few punters predicting that it is going to go down to 25 cents and plenty more selling.

Phaedrus, would TA have been useful in picking the number of trading opportunities which RBD has represented in the last 2 years?

[tim23]

Good post Snoopy - now if there is another bid for the company say at $1.50 on Monday - that makes you smart and Duncan (who is never wrong)not so smart!

[hairdresser]

100% up on the NZ market this year is good IMO. This is about making money not friends. Go hard MacGregor.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

I think all of you guys are missing the point. Investing is not about being 'right' or 'wrong' or 'buying in if things are going well' or 'exiting if the fundamentals deteriorate'.

Investing is a case of constantly comparing 'price' which is what the market is offering with 'value' which is what it is you are getting.
If RBD announces an underlying earnings deterioration of 20% and the price falls by 30%, generally this is a signal to 'buy'. If OTOH the price only falls 10% in response to a 20% earnings downgrade that might be a signal to sell.

You are describing one very valid type of value investing, which is one valid type of investing. There are however dozens of other approaches.

Irrespective of how the investment is approached - it must deliver several key points...

1. Profits
2. Profits that reflect the risks taken
3. Profits that exceed the opportunity cost
4. Profits that exceed relevant benchmarks



quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

We know that the market in the short term has a tendency to over-react to news, both good and bad. So I never seek to buy at 'fair value', always 'below fair value'. Likewise I never seek to sell at 'fair value', always 'above fair value'.

This is also what a TA approach seeks to do. It just lets the market set fair value.

But then there is FA and there is FA. Over the last few years I've had a negative view on RBD using qualitative FA. So far both the market and RBD's operational results agree with me. So some part of the "determine fair value" approach must be subjective and subject to bias and flaw, because we both have very different perspectives on the merits of the very same company.


quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

I regard RBD as an excellent investment candidate because the potential RBD investor (and that means everyone reading this) is more sophisticated than the typical RBD consumer. I'll bet the typical investor would spend twice as many nights out at restaurants with waiters than they would at their local 'KFC and McDonalds', assuming they have ever been into the doors of the latter at all. Thus the investor sees food like KFC and Pizza Hut as 'rubbish' all the time assuming their own sophisticated tastes are 'right' and anyone who eats let alone invests in a company like RBD as a fool.

Thanks for putting me in with the sophisticates! At least we agree on something. :)

I can however see RBD as serving rubbish food but see their business model as profitable. What I can't see is RBD delivering rubbish service standards, returns and strategy and somehow delivering outsized long term returns.

[quote]quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

I have some news for those sophisticates out there. KFC and PH do not care what you think of their food because *you are not their target market*! And just because you are not their target market that doesn't mean that KFC and PH cannot operate very effectively by zeroing in on an entirely different target market of customers. I believe the principal reason that RBD has been 'cheap' since 1999 is because most potential investors cannot relate to what RBD are doing and see the whole operation as somehow 'beneath them' and 'not worthy of their investment consideration'.

Fortunately I don't suffer from such 'i

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

100% up on the NZ market this year is good IMO. This is about making money not friends. Go hard MacGregor.


You mean to say you actually believe Macgregor - Your kidding aren't you hairdresser? Three out of his four hot nickle stocks have tanked over the past 2 months and the forth one has gone sideways.
Yet he tells us that his portfolio has gone from being 70% up at the beginning of may to being 100% up now - while all the stocks he's holding have tanked! On top of that, I saw on another thread, macgregor accused MVT of telling porkies about his shareholdings in telecom.Whose been telling porkies Macgregor?
.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by hiawatha

I don't compete for shares. I purchase them. Unlike you, I invest rather than speculate.
hiawatha


quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Cute but flawed. Try buying 1,000,000 shares in RBD at 1 cent on Monday and see if your offer is "competitive".

There are other buyers and sellers out there competing against you irrespective of your outlook.

Purchasing something is the easiest thing in the world to do. Negotiating an outperforming deal is something altogether different.



quote:Originally posted by Tom Hall

Cute but flawed. try going in today and trying to buy a new Toyota from the dealer at 1 cent and see if the deal is 'competitive'.
Your example is incomprehensible and I suspect meaningless as a comparison.

I had no idea I was being so obscure!

The example was demonstrating that even something as simple as a share purchase is a competitive process - if you really want to own RBD... or a Toyata... try going out there with 1 cent and seeing how many of each you pick up? Potential buyers are going to be ahead of the queue just by offering an extra cent, let alone tens of thousands of dollars more. My apologies for being so arcane.

Investing is a highly competitive process, an easily measurable process and there are plenty of poker players in the game offering a patsy a deal.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

Good post Snoopy - now if there is another bid for the company say at $1.50 on Monday - that makes you smart and Duncan (who is never wrong) not so smart!


Duncan is sometimes wrong Tim. His last trade on PGW was a losing trade and he hasn't been back to the NZ market since!

Let's get something right though. If there was a bid for the company on Monday at $1.50 I would be nothing more than lucky. At the AGM a question was put to Chairman Van Arkel on the takeover interest RBD had attracted. There seemed to be some market opinion that there had been offers on the table for the business that had been rejected.

Do you remember the old style fun fairs and the particular stall they used to have with the clown heads? That was the stall where the clowns stared up at you all in a row open mouthed as their heads moved from side to side and you stood there dropping ping pong balls into the clown mouths to hit different slots and try and win prizes? Well, the RBD board were sitting up on stage all in a row just like that row of clowns. And when the mention of a 'definite takeover offer' came from the floor at the AGM all of their heads swung from side to side in unison, exactly like those fun fair clowns from all those years ago. For once I believed their body language.

I know that Warren Buffet made quite a bit of money on the side, arising out of arbitrage for takeover deals. But he would only do this once a takeover proposal was definitly announced. He would never speculate on takeover deals that *might* happen. I think that if you choose to invest in a company like RBD the investment needs to stack up irrespective of the prospect of any takeover that might be on the horizon. I am picking no takeover deal until there is some proof that Pizza Hut can be turned around.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Snoopy ..... interesting that it comes across that you use the term 'investor' like you would use the term 'owner'

Do you feel like an 'owner' of RBD?


Owner? More like a frustrated parent who's kid comes back from school every year with the comment 'has potential, could do better' on their school report.

If it would do any good, I wouldn't mind going up to their new open plan headquarters, lining management up in a long line and giving them all a good spanking. I would wait for a board meeting day so that the board wouldn't 'miss out' either and I would bring along my 'Brother Lee Love glove' to make sure I did a good job. But I guess with current legislation that would be my last act as 'RBD Dad' before being frog marched away! I guess I am just frustrated that after a decade of 'sweet talking' management just can't seem to get it right.


quote:
I see that nearly 100% of the shares in RBD change hands in the last year - would seem to suggest that there are very few 'owners' of RBD - 'owners' used in the context that generally most people 'own' their dog for life.


Do you have a source for that share turnover figure? I am surprised it is quite as high.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

.


quote:
I see that nearly 100% of the shares in RBD change hands in the last year - would seem to suggest that there are very few 'owners' of RBD - 'owners' used in the context that generally most people 'own' their dog for life.


Do you have a source for that share turnover figure? I am surprised it is quite as high.

SNOOPY




From ASB -- 98.5% it says

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by hiawatha

No need to apologise. You haven't said anything arcane. Dumb perhaps, but not arcane.
hiawatha


quote:Originally posted by Tom Hall

Dumb? Maybe. I'd have chosen supercilious, myself. Come to think of it, supercilious is just another form of dumb.

Dumb and supercilious?

How can I compete with such even headed rationalism? You've convinced me guys. There is no competition when investing. Well done. First argument I've ever seen in share trader actually change someone's position. How did you do it? I triumph of rational insight. Must be a word that means the opposite of supercilious huh?

[Halebop]

Oh Ok, so companies don't compete for our capital either? ...and profits are incidental to the investing process?

...this stuff is gold. :D

[duncan macgregor]

Hey you dummies if you want to use big words at least learn how to spell them. SUPERCILLIOUS has double LL[:o)][:o)]:D Thought you would like to know that. Macdunk

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Hey you dummies if you want to use big words at least learn how to spell them. SUPERCILLIOUS has double LL[:o)][:o)]:D Thought you would like to know that. Macdunk

Oh no it doesn't

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Tom Hall

I'm sorry, but you seem to have completely misunderstood my position.

Deft moment to distance yourself from that argument Tom.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

Hey you dummies if you want to use big words at least learn how to spell them. SUPERCILLIOUS has double LL[:o)][:o)]:D Thought you would like to know that. Macdunk

Oh no it doesn't

I knew someone would look it up on a wet day. GOOGLE has it both ways. So well done PT you are wrong as well, it can be spelt either with one or two LLs. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

WILL have 2 pieces of Chicken and a large Mr Chips, Tar.. [8D]

[Halebop]

Macdunk google isn't a dictionary. It's a search engine. If you spell a word incorrectly in the search bar and people out there in web land have used the same spelling, google will return those results. According to Dictionary.com (USA) and Dictionary.co.uk the word has only one "L".

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

WILL have 2 pieces of Chicken and a large Mr Chips, Tar.. [8D]


DONT shove in i was here FIRST.. [8D]

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Tom Hall

I'm using Mozilla Firefox which has an inbuilt spell checker though that may bias me more towards American than English!

If you want to give others the benefit of your knowledge about Google Mr comet man, perhaps you should consider trying to earn a little more about it first.

Thanks Tom, I also use Firefox and the built in spell checker. A great function. However I use the Australian English dictionary instead. You might want to get the upgrade ...and then re-read Macdunks and my posts to get what I was saying to him.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by hiawatha

Companies don't compete for capital, except, I suppose, at IPO time, or when raising additional capital. If, by profits, you mean profits on the sale of shares, I would say, yes, they are incidental to the investing process.

Companies do compete for capital all the time. It's a function well beyond the simple IPO. They offer a return to investors by delivering on an "X" discount rate. Holders demand that managers continue to deliver (or better yet improve on) those returns in order that their investment continues to pay its way. Companies that fail to deliver go bust, deliver negative returns or get taken over at prices cheaper than their competitors. Its all a very competitive process because those cmpanies must compete against other companies and investors get to benchmark and choose which ones they invest their funds in.

By profits I mean what investing is all about. You may recall using the word favourably when compared to speculating just a short time ago. Here some definations of Investing...

http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=investing
the act of investing; laying out money or capital in an enterprise with the expectation of profit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investing
Investment is a term with several closely-related meanings in finance and economics. It refers to the accumulation of some kind of asset in hopes of getting a future return from it.

http://selco.org/consumer/glossary_savings+investing.asp
The act of using money to make more money

www.mostchoice.com/general/tools_library/glossary/g_tls_glossary_investment.cfm
Putting money into securities like stocks, bonds, or mutual funds with the hope that it will grow in value.

Apparently others out there think investing is done to earn a return or profit. You should spread your good word before all this crazy talk gets out of hand and people start expecting to make a profit when they invest.


quote:Originally posted by hiawatha

The point I mainly wanted to make though is that investing in shares is not, or should not be, some sort of dog-eat-dog competition. Gordon Gecko is hardly the cinema world's most attractive character.
hiawatha

"Is not" and "should not" aren't the same. "Is not" is simply wrong, the world is competitive. The former Soviet Union made a good show of trying to remove that from the wealth generating process. The Chinese saw the writing on the wall and capitulated. "Should not" is simply a philosphical point of view, perhaps shared by some of those Soviet folks.

Keep it up though, love your work.

[duncan macgregor]

All the companies compete for my investment dollar by showing good profits, which normally leads to a rising share price. I look at a rising sp, add on what dividends if any, then draw a line under the total. I expect the company to compete with other companies to give me a higher total than any of the other companies. I as an investor compete with other investors to buy good trending shares from them, and sell bad trending shares back. If a company is not competing and gets into a downtrend as RBD is then i am not interested in buying, or holding, im off like a robbers dog. I dont care what excuses, or bad luck they might have had, i look on it as their problem to solve, if they want to compete for my investment dollar. Life is one big competition, with winners and losers, you cant have one without the other. RBD have made some real clangers in the last few years with the resulting drop in the sp. You wont find many clued up winning investors on their share register. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

All the companies compete for my investment dollar by showing good profits, which normally leads to a rising share price. I look at a rising sp, add on what dividends if any, then draw a line under the total. I expect the company to compete with other companies to give me a higher total than any of the other companies. I as an investor compete with other investors to buy good trending shares from them, and sell bad trending shares back. If a company is not competing and gets into a downtrend as RBD is then i am not interested in buying, or holding, im off like a robbers dog. I dont care what excuses, or bad luck they might have had, i look on it as their problem to solve, if they want to compete for my investment dollar. Life is one big competition, with winners and losers, you cant have one without the other. RBD have made some real clangers in the last few years with the resulting drop in the sp. You wont find many clued up winning investors on their share register. Macdunk


SCOTT so your saying that all the 6,669 RBD shareholders they are all DILLS but doubt they would like THAT.. [8D]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by hiawatha


quote:"Is not" and "should not" aren't the same. "Is not" is simply wrong, the world is competitive. The former Soviet Union made a good show of trying to remove that from the wealth generating process. The Chinese saw the writing on the wall and capitulated. "Should not" is simply a philosphical point of view, perhaps shared by some of those Soviet folks.

Communism was an attempt to eliminate privately owned capital. Marx thought that "capitalists" would take the lion's share of production, leaving a mere pittance for the workers. By placing the means of production in the hands of the state (which could be deemed to represent the workers), communists hoped to get rid of the conflict of interest between owners and workers. It didn't work, probably because managers were required to produce quotas of goods rather than profits.
However I don't see how this is relevant to the current debate. All it does is show that the centrally planned economy is in some respects inferior to the laissez-faire economy.
hiawatha





WOULD you like some chicken & Mr Chips too at the rate we are going none of us will get served.. [8D]

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS
SCOTT so your saying that all the 6,669 RBD shareholders they are all DILLS but doubt they would like THAT.. [8D]
BRICKS, you dont want me to get into trouble do you?. Its all in the eye of the beholder Bricks. I am told some people actually will queue up to eat the bloody stuff.:D:DMacdunk

[Scuffer]

Reading the last couple of days pages and all whats been said by you guys about RBD and too each other,I have come to the conclusion they are a few wannabe RBD holders and quite a lot of hasbeen holders but who would admit to it.This company maybe a dog but listen to yourselves you are all barking at the moon.

[Onthemoney]

yawn...

[Mick100]

These debates have been had before and they will be had again in future. IMO, it all boils down to investment timeframe - long term investors such as snoopy and hiawatha are never going to be in agreement with the "rat pack" of short term speculators and bullsh!tters (macdunk)

I have a feeling that it's the long term investors who will prosper over the long run.
.

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


These debates have been had before and they will be had again in future. IMO, it all boils down to investment timeframe - long term investors such as snoopy and hiawatha are never going to be in agreement with the "rat pack" of short term speculators and bullsh!tters (macdunk)

I have a feeling that it's the long term investors who will prosper over the long run.
.
MICK, losing the plot are we?. First of all you have a go at PHAEDRUS on the GPG thread because he dared to say GPG was a TA sell.
You had a go at me in the past for saying PGW was a sell. We all know that you buy and hold forever and a day, despite which way the market trends. GPG sp dropped from july last year, from $2-52 to $2-06. PGW sp over that period dropped from $2-10 to $1-73. We wont go into the RBD share price over that period. If all you fundamental hold it forever investors without a sell strategy think you are winners far be it from me to say you are wrong. Keep investing mate it makes it easier for us losers. :D:D:D Macdunk

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

These debates have been had before and they will be had again in future.

True.


quote:Originally posted by Mick100

IMO, it all boils down to investment timeframe - long term investors such as snoopy and hiawatha are never going to be in agreement with the "rat pack" of short term speculators and bullsh!tters (macdunk)

Mick the problem with this view is that there is nothing "short term" about RBD's performance. They have a trend of declining profits and declining share prices. So the time frame question is quite disingenuous - buying a crappy company at a low price is a short term strategy - not a long term one. In the long term the crappy element will defeat the superficially cheap multiple. In the short term you may receive a temporary boost but the price will end up suffering again as the share re-aligns with operational reality.


quote:Originally posted by Mick100

I have a feeling that it's the long term investors who will prosper over the long run.

It's habitual investors who will prosper over the long term. How they invest is up to them. Investing full stop will put you ahead of someone who consumes. But to say a long term investor in RBD will do better just by holding would not get Buffett's agreement - the company fails too many of his tenets - and is also belied by the historical evidence and trends.

The only long term hope for RBD is that the company gets partially taken over by a smarter operator or that by some miracle the existing board and management change their strategies and tactics. Until that happens the menu will be more of the same. But the frustrating thing for all those "long term" holders is that if that day comes, the short term rat pack of speculators and bull$hitters can hop onto the share register as the trend confirms, maximizing the profit opportunity by minimizing the interim opportunity cost.

[swaying]

Went bowling. Asked birthday boy where he would like to take his mates for lunch, P/Hut. No P/Hut to dine in. So KFC was the go. What a dump! Dirty, broken and very greasy food. If I had shares in RBD I would be concerned.[V]

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by swaying

Went bowling. Asked birthday boy where he would like to take his mates for lunch, P/Hut. No P/Hut to dine in. So KFC was the go. What a dump! Dirty, broken and very greasy food. If I had shares in RBD I would be concerned.[V]


WE are just bought them a new MOP.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

Pleeease sell your shares down cos Bling has a buy order waiting at 80 cents :):D

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


It's habitual investors who will prosper over the long term. How they invest is up to them. Investing full stop will put you ahead of someone who consumes. But to say a long term investor in RBD will do better just by holding would not get Buffett's agreement - the company fails too many of his tenets - and is also belied by the historical evidence and trends.

.


Yes, "habitual investor" is a better term than I used
This includes sticking to your investment principles - not someone elses principles.
I have noticed that some investors have a far better defined set of investment principles than others. With the exception of someone like phaedrus, who has a very mechanical system, I suspect a lot of short term investors/speculators change their investment principles so often that none of the systems that they employ ever get a chance to work over the long term.
.

[duncan macgregor]

MICK, PHAEDRUS has a system that works well for him you, should pay more attention, you have a lot to learn. Your buy and stick it under the bed system is costing you a lot of investing time, and money. Anyone that buys a share with no idea of how or when to sell under unforeseen circumstances that can crop up even in the best companies is a sitting duck. If trendlines is beyond your comprehension then surely you understand how a trailing stop loss works.
People that refuse to change and stand still, will fall behind other more open minded people, in any occupation, or walk of life.
You seem to be stuck in an investment rut, where change is to be frowned upon. Let PHAEDRUS teach you about moving averages, volume, and trendlines, get those dog shares of yours out from under the bed, and flog them off to some dummy averaging down.
HAVIN A GO AT YOU YOUR OLD MATE Macdunk.:D:D:D

[Crypto Crude]

RBD is a boring share...
Ive never held a boring share in my life...
whats the point of holding a share in a real tight trading range, when you could just be more boring, but with less risk and put it in the bank account...
RBD has been around 90cents for 3 months...
....
whats coming up for RBD over the next few months?...
any expected announcements?
Have alook at AED, its a real cheap stock... fundamentals are sound.... going to be a real big company.... why muck around with boring stocks when you know the likes of MCR, AED are out there...
[8D]
.^sc

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

RBD is a boring share...
Ive never held a boring share in my life...



Your showing your age shrewd

Some would argue (including myself) that "boring shares" are exactly what you want in your portfolio. Boring shares would include those companies which pay a high proportion of earnings out in dividends such as PGW. These "boring", high dividend paying shares can also deliver cap gains if you get into the right sectors as i am beginning to see with my agricultural companies. "Boring" shares are gennerally far lower risk than other shares because they pay high dividends - great shares to hold during bear markets.
Do you know what a bear market is shrewd?
.

[duncan macgregor]

MICK, Have you ever heard of make hay while the sun shines. I feel sure young shrewd will still outperform you with his open minded investing style. Plenty of time left SHREWDY in this bull market. When the market turns to custard, you and i will be gone leaving the boring old bastards to wallow in their paltry dividends, and doggy stocks. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

mick....
I guess I am of the age where I can take on a few extra risks...
as you are probably aware, I dont have a massive amount of cash, so diversifying across many sectors is a waste of time...
The bull market willnot run forever, so better make the most of it while it lasts...
in bull go a bit more expansive, in bear go abit more defensive...
no point being defensive in a bull...
yes I know what a bear market is!
[8D]
.^sc

[Toddy]

'make hay while the sun shines', 'market turns to custard'...........


I think I understand.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

in bull go a bit more expansive, in bear go abit more defensive...
no point being defensive in a bull...


The point I was trying to make is that in some circumstances you can get good cap gains out of defensive stocks shrewd - you can have the best of both worlds. I'm not reffering to RBD - I'm reffering to a stock such as PGW - a defensive stock with the potential to deliver good cap gains during this boom in ag commodities.
.

[Crypto Crude]

hey mackdadunk....
eye eye to that....
Im not a purest when it comes to shares...
I have a strategy, and it works, sometimes I throw something into the mix and it doesnot work out... sometimes it does...

2 weeks ago I lost 3k... I sold all my NWE for a one day trade to see how a new U IPO floated... got in on the Parent company, and was initially up heaps then it swung the other way.... lost 7k to U plays this year.... was right back into NWE that day, and with nzood going balastic Ive made back those losses and Im doing well this year...
had about 80% of my wealth on NWE at one stage... now its a little over half...

Im a calculated risk taker... looking for stocks with little downside, big up...
feel Like all my 3 current holdings fit that...
[8D]
.^sc

[Crypto Crude]

Mick,
I know this may sound sad...
but I hate dividends... and ive never had one...
I hold everything on ASX (apart from nzood, options dont get dividends...)
and ASX dividends get taxed...
so capital gains it is...

I feel that I dont have to go defensive route with current strategy of big up small down...
feeling certainty with a stock is rare... TEX is the black knight....hum....
[8D]
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100


quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

in bull go a bit more expansive, in bear go abit more defensive...
no point being defensive in a bull...


The point I was trying to make is that in some circumstances you can get good cap gains out of defensive stocks shrewd - you can have the best of both worlds. I'm not reffering to RBD - I'm reffering to a stock such as PGW - a defensive stock with the potential to deliver good cap gains during this boom in ag commodities.
.
Your PGW has dropped from $2-10 in a boom year to $1-73.
MCR the one that SHREWD CRUDE mentioned has gone up well over 100% in that time frame. Pgw is a dog share in a bull market, RBD is a dog share in any market. You are missing out on the bull run by being an old fuddy duddy mick. MACDUNK

[Crypto Crude]

old fuddy duddy...
whata crackup....:D....
mick, arent you younger than me....?
Im 22....
[8D]
.^sc

[Toddy]

According to Sharetrader - Shrewd Crude is a 'Senior Member'.

Surely thats a misrepresentation by Sharetrader given that Shrewd has just disclosed that he is just a baby.

[Mick100]

quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

Mick,
I know this may sound sad...
but I hate dividends... and ive never had one...
I hold everything on ASX (apart from nzood, options dont get dividends...)
and ASX dividends get taxed...
so capital gains it is...

I feel that I dont have to go defensive route with current strategy of big up small down...
feeling certainty with a stock is rare... TEX is the black knight....hum....
[8D]
.^sc


Yeah, I understand your strategy shrewd - I think it's a good strategy too for someone of your age and level of capital.
Am familiar with two of your stocks and agree with you - they have minimal downside risk unlike macdunks nickle stocks.

Don't forget what you have learn't at uni - if you can maintain your required return while reducing risk then this is the best option to take and this is what I have been doing with my portfolio over the past yr or so.

I'm older than you shrewd but not as old as macdunk.
.

[Crypto Crude]

toddy,
I am a senior member, im way ahead of my time...
I can even foot it toe to toe with Mackdadunk...:D..


quote:Mick100-I'm older than you shrewd but not as old as macdunk.

Mick, nobody is older than mackdadunk:D:D[:p]....

I just dont understand why people would muck around with these sorts of stocks...Telecom is another one... Burger fuel is out, as too is BIO...some are here to protect their holdings, others are here to grow them...
but trust me, when a bear market hits, no-one will be making money in shares...defensive stocks like this one willnot be saved... and when that happens I will be gone...
Auckland airport is a great stock... a rather defensive stock aswell...
BUT, they have a large amount of land that currently they are sitting on...
I went to a AIA seminar and the CEO was presenting...
he said they will develop this land into a commerical district in the future....or more runways is a possibility...
The only dividend paying stock on the NZ market I would invest in with lower end risk is this company...

other than that, its back to TEX,NWE,and NZOOD...
TEX up 12% NWE up 11%... nzood up a few...
[8D]
.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

quote:Originally posted by Mick100

I'm older than you shrewd but not as old as macdunk.
.Get off the grass Mick I always thought you were an old IRISH GIT, that had to be blindfolded then reversed up the gang plank to get you here.[:o)]:D:D:DOnly Kiddin Macdunk

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


But then there is FA and there is FA. Over the last few years I've had a negative view on RBD using qualitative FA. So far both the market and RBD's operational results agree with me. So some part of the "determine fair value" approach must be subjective and subject to bias and flaw, because we both have very different perspectives on the merits of the very same company.


'Qualitative FA?' You mean you don't like RBD but you can't really explain why! Fair enough, you are entitled to your opinion Halebop.
No need to hide your opinion as representing some kind of new era pseudobusiness jargon though.


quote:
I can see RBD as serving rubbish food but see their business model as profitable. What I can't see is RBD delivering rubbish service standards, returns and strategy and somehow delivering outsized long term returns.


A corporate business unit owned by RBD is never going to match the same business owned by an dedicated owner operator. But that doesn't mean they can't do significantly better than they are now. Use the strategy to set the service standards and returns should follow.

I don't know the confidential details of RBD's strategy. But staff turnover is reducing and they got some good PR in being the first of the big chains to phase out youth rates. The CHAMPS system is there to measure service quality so what are you saying? The CHAMPS hurdles they set for themselves are not high enough?


quote:
RBD's performance has been less than average - their growth in sales has substantially lagged the takeaway segment, their acquisition strategy has failed, their dividends and profits have both declined in real and absolute terms and substantially underperformed alternatives listed on the NZX. There is very little that is "average" about their performance.


KFC has grown sales from $172.3m in FY1997 to $182.7m in FY2007. That is a compounding rate of sales increase 'r' of:

$172.6m(1+r)^10=$182.7m

That gives a compounding rate of sales increase of 0.6% per annum. Not good.

For Pizza Hut $44.5m worth of sales in 1997. $79.7m of sales in FY2007. Using the same equation:

$44.5m(1+r)^10=$79.7m

That gives a compounding rate of sales increase of 6% per annum. Nothing wrong with that. The success of the Eagle Boys integration must take some of the kudos for that.

Not sure how it compares with the growth of the takeaway industry in general over that same period.


quote:
Their pizza acquisition strategy has failed on both sides of the Tasman,


Only on the OZ side. The Eagle Boys acquisition was successful.


quote:
they have spent the silver from selling their real estate portfolio (the bulk of which was KFC - most of the Pizza Real Estate was divested years before)


That's history that has already been built into the RBD share price.

[quote]quote:
and the Chicken Stores cost a lot of money to "makeover" - of course the franchiser will be positi

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy

'Qualitative FA?' You mean you don't like RBD but you can't really explain why! Fair enough, you are entitled to your opinion Halebop. No need to hide your opinion as representing some kind of new era pseudobusiness jargon though.

Snoopy I know I'm annoying but you typically rise above that to at least argue the game and not the player.

I've critiqued RBD enough over the last few years that you should be pretty well versed on exactly what my FA has surmised - you have after all responded to many of my posts. If you really don't know what I've previously said yet have argued forthrightly against my views, it would make me wonder at your purpose? But then I don't really think you are ignorant to my view on what my "qualitative FA" is.

Sure I'm irksome. So is Duncan. Even Phaedrus. In an honest moment I'm sure we'd all accept we take a perverse pleasure in rattling the RBD thread just because we know it hisses so angrily. At some point though, you need to choose between "being right" and having more money. Forget for a moment our arguments, semantics and fun poking. Over time RBD keeps dropping in price because their profit and growth performance is poor. This can't be recast any other way. This has happened.

A different approach might have kept you out of RBD or at least exited you at a more profitable price. The problem here is not being right or winning an argument. The problem is making more profitable investments and avoiding or at least managing the less profitable ones. Have a look at your investment process and innovate rather than defend RBD. It's not showing you the same loyalty.

[thereslifeafter87]

Snoopy, I was an investor in RBD way back. In at 1.80something and out at 1.30something.

When it starts to go pear shaped, and your fundamental analysis is proven wrong, it's time to bail.

When management proves again and again that they cannot generate returns, it's time to bail.

I can point you to any number of fundamentally sound stocks, on '07 PE's of around ten, that will have grown profits by more than 30% over the last year and are forecasting continuing growth. I could have done the same a year ago also.

I simply cannot understand why someone would sit with their investment in a non-performing business year after year when there are so many more promising opportunities elsewhere!

As Peter Lynch says, you should always avoid pulling out the flowers and wateringthe weeds.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy



The Eagle Boys acquisition was successful.

SNOOPY



Gave them more stores .... increased the number of pizzas they sold

But since then PH have gone from making a few bob on each pizza to losing money on each pizza ... essentially meaning that the extra mass did not generate efficiencies (more profit) or strengthen their market position (help protect margins)

Eagle Boys acquisition successful? ..... ask yourself

[winner69]

SNOOPY - there has to be something fundamentally wrong with the RBD business model

Cumulative cash flows since 2000 pretty sad story

Operating cash flow (money from day to day operations) have been $167M

Spent $141M on franchise fees, capital assets and acquisitions (I have excluded the sale of buildings as this was really a financing issue)

So over 7 financial years they have only generated $26M of free cash..... pathetic

With future capex at pretty high levels hard to see this sort of performance changing much over the next few years

High capital requirements with low margins not a good mix

[winner69]

The only winners here are YUM! amd Starbucks Corp

Every year they take home $20M odd along with some upfront franchise fees

In return RBD total shareholder returns (with dividends reinvested) have been

1 year -27%
3 years -5% pa
5 years -8% pa
10 years -6% pa

Doesn't seem the place to be does it

Snoopy - why don't you sell out and top up YUM ... seems a better bet if you really want to 'own' a piece of KFC etc

(but nake sure 100% hedged)

[beacon]

How do you make sure of the hedging part winner?

[BRICKS]

Snoopy your a big man to with stand every bit of rubbish thrown at you by them they would love you to SELL loose a lot of money and say "sorry" so we could all go home to tea and the company could float off to the NEVER,NEVER.. [8D]

[Halebop]

You don't have to sell something to lose money, you only need to buy it in the first place. The question is more complex than simply losing money as well. RBD has over time delivered negative returns, but even if the 10 year returns were +5.5% rather than -5.5%, cost of capital and opportunity would still make it a bona fide destroyer of capital.

[winner69]

Got it wrong

The only winners out of this have been YUM! , Starbucks Inc ..... and MR CHIPS

[duncan macgregor]

Down another 1.2% on $20 thousand turnover this morning to 85c.
Its surprising how some people could think that this is the best buy on the market at this moment in time. If it all hits the fan there will still be someone out there thinking its a buy. FA or TA systems are in agreement on this one, so who would buy today [?]. Macdunk

[Lizard]

I hadn't looked over the RBD figures for a while (since annoying Snoopy on page 3 of this thread by suggesting the dividend would need to be cut). However, my latest look was not encouraging. Some points I thought were of interest:

1. Pizza Hut EBITDA margin was at around 15% in 2003 - 2005 financial years, fell to 13.4% in 2006 but plunged to 6.4% in 2007. I'm not sure the extent of this plunge has been adequately explained to date. Also, to achieve their 2008 forecasts would seem likely to require some substantial reversal to at least 8% margin on Pizza Hut.

2. KFC increased its EBITDA by $1.6m, but depreciation for continuing operations increased by almost $2.0m. Does this mean that increased returns from the new KFC concept stores are being more than offset by increases in depreciation resulting from investment?

3. Debt grew by $16m and cash reduced by $1m during the last year. This was during a period where 12 stores were refurbished and $2.6m was spent on renewing franchises for 50% of KFC stores. This year, only 8 KFC stores will be refurbished, the other 50% of KFC franchises are being renewed and some (all?) or the Pizza Hut ones. Debt facilities of $70m have been negotiated to see them through the refurbishment process, with $50m now in use. At $1m per store and 60+ stores to go, it would seem that $40m will need to be found from cashflows to complete refurbishment. How long will it take to complete the process? Another 5 years seems possible/probable - that seems like some time before RBD is going to look like a cash generator.

Having said that, my current valuation is $1.27, so IF they stay on track for their full year forecast, there might be a medium term trade of up to 20%? At forecast of $9-10m underlying profit, that's a P/E of 8.3 - 9.2. But it doesn't look like a "buy and hold" to me at the moment.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard



At forecast of $9-10m underlying profit, that's a P/E of 8.3 - 9.2. But it doesn't look like a "buy and hold" to me at the moment.

Why use the underlying profit?

They say that some non trading items will be in the vicinity of $2 million after tax. But those non trading items look like things that were trading items not that long ago -- obviously been understating depreciation etc in the past if they now need to write a few things off.

And every year RBD seems to have some non trading items -- almost becoming the norm in my view and likely to continue into the future, esp as they continue to upgrade and transform things

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Someone is mopping up is it you Bling, or it could be Bricks I think he likes this stock.


I think its you scuffer mopping up today .... depriving bling of his 80 cent jobs

haven't heard from you for a week or so scuffer .... where are you

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Lizard



At forecast of $9-10m underlying profit, that's a P/E of 8.3 - 9.2. But it doesn't look like a "buy and hold" to me at the moment.

Why use the underlying profit?



I use the underlying profit because (wrongly or rightly) I think that will be important in determining sentiment. If their forecasts are correct, reported profits should improve in the coming year - particularly underlying profit. Improving profits usually result in improved share prices, even if the effect is temporary. The market will also be reassured if they are able to achieve forecast this year.

Based on available information and trends, I think analysts will tend to see a value discount and, at some point, the discount becomes worth the risk of buying into a "dog" stock. This seems to me to be more common with New Zealand analysts (perhaps because of the more limited pool of stocks they have to extract returns from). So that is why I see that there could be a medium term trade (e.g. 83cps, back to $1.03?). I doubt I will bother to test this theory though, since there are so many other safer stocks to play with.

The "value discount" might make Snoopy consider it a suitable long term hold, but the sensitivity analysis around that valuation, performance history and burden of KFC cashflow commitments makes the valuation high risk. Perhaps in 4 years time when the bulk of the KFC expenditure is completed, then a lower risk outlook will emerge.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Someone is mopping up is it you Bling, or it could be Bricks I think he likes this stock.


I think its you scuffer mopping up today .... depriving bling of his 80 cent jobs

haven't heard from you for a week or so scuffer .... where are you


:DBling is waiting, doesnt look like too long before they hit 80 cents. Please sell down if you dont like the stock. Bling is ready for some bargains.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Lizard


1. Pizza Hut EBITDA margin was at around 15% in 2003 - 2005 financial years, fell to 13.4% in 2006 but plunged to 6.4% in 2007. I'm not sure the extent of this plunge has been adequately explained to date. Also, to achieve their 2008 forecasts would seem likely to require some substantial reversal to at least 8% margin on Pizza Hut.


The fall is because of the 'Pizza Wars' being fought out between PH, Dominos and Hell Pizza. At the AGM we were told NZ has more pizza outlets per capita than Australia. Not the least of the problems is the high cost structure that PH has with their Red Hat restaurants. We were told some are losing money so simply closing them without the need for any gain in market share will help PHs position. I wouldn't call an EBITDA margin improvement from 6.4% to 8% too hard an ask either.

Today I notice the first sign that he pizza wars might be abating. Domino's single pizza coupon special is now $7.90. It was $6.90 last week. That is Christchurch of course. What are the loss leading pizza prices like in other parts of the country? Anyone?


quote:
2. KFC increased its EBITDA by $1.6m, but depreciation for continuing operations increased by almost $2.0m. Does this mean that increased returns from the new KFC concept stores are being more than offset by increases in depreciation resulting from investment?


The depreciation on KFC increased from $3.846m to $4.922m which is an increase of around $1.1m. My allocation of the interest bill ascribed to KFC went up by $700,000 (due to higher company borrowings) and amortization has gone up by $150,000. That adds up to $1.95m. Balance that against the increase in EBITDA of $1.6m and you can see you are correct Lizard. The refurbishment project, coupled with paying half the ten year renewal fee, has lead to a decrease in after tax profit for KFC for FY2007.


quote:
3. Debt grew by $16m and cash reduced by $1m during the last year. This was during a period where 12 stores were refurbished and $2.6m was spent on renewing franchises for 50% of KFC stores. This year, only 8 KFC stores will be refurbished, the other 50% of KFC franchises are being renewed and some (all?) or the Pizza Hut ones.


The number of Pizza Hut stores having their agreements renewed in FY2008 is not material. The big tranche for renewal is due in 2010 (the ex-Eagle Boys premises)


quote:
Debt facilities of $70m have been negotiated to see them through the refurbishment process, with $50m now in use. At $1m per store and 60+ stores to go, it would seem that $40m will need to be found from cashflows to complete refurbishment. How long will it take to complete the process? Another 5 years seems possible/probable - that seems like some time before RBD is going to look like a cash generator.


RBD has always been and will continue to be a cash generator. Even if earnings are flat the EBITDA over the next five years will be over $150m. That easily covers the $40m you suggest is required for total chain refurbishment.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Why use the underlying profit?

They say that some non trading items will be in the vicinity of $2 million after tax.


What non trading items are you on about Winner? AFAIK the accounts are now clean.


quote:
But those non trading items look like things that were trading items not that long ago -- obviously been understating depreciation etc in the past if they now need to write a few things off.


The main write offs (goodwill and depreciation) relate to Australia - a result of the decision to exit. Ther was also a write off of goodwill in NZ on the Eagle Boys acquisition due to the 'Pizza Wars'. Unless you indugle in crystal ball accounting, there was nothing inappropriate in not writing off those amounts in earlier years.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Snoopy - I was referring to the $2M already flagged for the 2008 year .... being "write offs associated with KFC store transformations and Pizza Hut facility rationalisation"

Seems like a catch up to me

Gut and renovate a new store ... write the value of whats left off etc

Companies that have regular one-offs / non trading / abnormals or whatever you want to call them have in essence overstated prior years profits ... think about it


It sort of becomes contagious .... ongoing

[Lizard]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy
RBD has always been and will continue to be a cash generator. Even if earnings are flat the EBITDA over the next five years will be over $150m. That easily covers the $40m you suggest is required for total chain refurbishment.



Snoopy, as the books can testify, the "additional" refurbishment costs will be only part of the investment cashflows. You cannot ignore ongoing investing cashflow in this type of business, as it is part and parcel of their business and earnings generation. Read W69's post of 12 hours ago on the previous page which lays out exactly what sort of "cash generator" RBD has been. Once this round of refurbishments have finished, they may temporarily become a cash generator while they spend below depreciation for a few years until the next round...as Winner as suggested, the fact they need to write-off existing KFC investment as they refurbish may attest to the fact that their long term depreciation allowance is unrealistically low.

And yes, it seems that a good part of the increase in underlying profit this year will come simply from the reduction in costs associated with PH Australia, rather than the from the much-touted improvements in KFC sales.

Not going to debate this one any further. Not alot more to be gained by poring over the figures at this point.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Snoopy - I was referring to the $2M already flagged for the 2008 year .... being "write offs associated with KFC store transformations and Pizza Hut facility rationalisation"

Seems like a catch up to me

Gut and renovate a new store ... write the value of whats left off etc

Companies that have regular one-offs / non trading / abnormals or whatever you want to call them have in essence overstated prior years profits ... think about it

It sort of becomes contagious .... ongoing


I have just read the Chairman's address for the first time and saw the quote. You are right Winner.

I think RBD have been somewhat cavalier about some of these write offs. It is an issue of co-ordinating the expiry of the lease with the expiry of the franchising agreement that applies to the same outlet. Unless both co-incide you are going to have a write off whenever a business unit is moved. But this kind of write off is unavoidable.

As for the write off of the internals of a building before expiry date, well that equipment should be able to be incorporated under the new roof. I agree with you that this kind of write off should come under the header 'normal business'.

One thing I am curious about. When these KFC stores are 'transformed' what happens to the workers? The site is out of action for six weeks or so. Do the workers just go home on full pay for a month? Or are they all sacked? Staff turnover -normally- is high enough for me not to know, being in the infrequent visior to my local store that I am.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

SNOOPY - there has to be something fundamentally wrong with the RBD business model

Cumulative cash flows since 2000 pretty sad story

Operating cash flow (money from day to day operations) have been $167M

Spent $141M on franchise fees, capital assets and acquisitions (I have excluded the sale of buildings as this was really a financing issue)

So over 7 financial years they have only generated $26M of free cash..... pathetic


Again I am not sure where you are quoting your figures from Winner, but let's assume you are correct. I don't agree that you can disregard the sale of properties which brought some $54m onto the RBD company balance sheet. It was that capital injection that shored up the balance sheet to enable the expansion into Australia to proceed.

To disregard it is akin to saying:
"That joker across the street couldn't have afforded his new beach house if he hadn't won Lotto."
You can draw up all sorts of arguments saying that interest rate rises since purchase would have put him into a negatively geared situation, his wife and family would have left him cracking under the financial and social pressure of never seeing hubby at home as he worked three jobs to clear his debts....blah.. blah..blah.

The whole argument is bunkum because the guy did win Lotto. And if he hadn't won Lotto then he wouldn't have bought the house in the first place!

The above situation is exactly analagous with RBD and their Australian business purchase. The fact that RBD lost millions in Australia and the fact that our Lotto winner over the road had his beach house wiped out by a tsunami have nothing to do with the affordability, in cashflow terms, of the original purchase.


quote:
With future capex at pretty high levels hard to see this sort of performance changing much over the next few years

High capital requirements with low margins not a good mix


I agree that if management makes another blunder, like the Australian expansion, things will not look good for RBD. But what you are assuming here is that management have learned nothing from their failed Ozzie experience and they will to continue to expand recklessly even though they no longer have the house to mortgage.

This time the expansion (KFC transformation) capex is producing the increased sales expecte. That was never the case in the PH Australia expansion.

Also the margins for KFC are not that low in retail terms, better than the Warehouse Red Sheds in fact.

SNOOPY

[Scuffer]

Hi Winner69 I've been around kicking a can amusing myself in some depraved manner waiting for someone to say something to make my ears prick up, it hasn't happened and I think Bling is right RBD are heading to 80 cents.I will re-assess my situation when they hit 80 cents might buy some more.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy


quote:Originally posted by winner69

SNOOPY - there has to be something fundamentally wrong with the RBD business model

Cumulative cash flows since 2000 pretty sad story

Operating cash flow (money from day to day operations) have been $167M

Spent $141M on franchise fees, capital assets and acquisitions (I have excluded the sale of buildings as this was really a financing issue)

So over 7 financial years they have only generated $26M of free cash..... pathetic


Again I am not sure where you are quoting your figures from Winner, but let's assume you are correct. I don't agree that you can disregard the sale of properties which brought some $54m onto the RBD company balance sheet. It was that capital injection that shored up the balance sheet to enable the expansion into Australia to proceed.

To disregard it is akin to saying:
"That joker across the street couldn't have afforded his new beach house if he hadn't won Lotto."
You can draw up all sorts of arguments saying that interest rate rises since purchase would have put him into a negatively geared situation, his wife and family would have left him cracking under the financial and social pressure of never seeing hubby at home as he worked three jobs to clear his debts....blah.. blah..blah.

The whole argument is bunkum because the guy did win Lotto. And if he hadn't won Lotto then he wouldn't have bought the house in the first place!

The above situation is exactly analagous with RBD and their Australian business purchase. The fact that RBD lost millions in Australia and the fact that our Lotto winner over the road had his beach house wiped out by a tsunami have nothing to do with the affordability, in cashflow terms, of the original purchase.


quote:
With future capex at pretty high levels hard to see this sort of performance changing much over the next few years

High capital requirements with low margins not a good mix


I agree that if management makes another blunder, like the Australian expansion, things will not look good for RBD. But what you are assuming here is that management have learned nothing from their failed Ozzie experience and they will to continue to expand recklessly even though they no longer have the house to mortgage.

This time the expansion (KFC transformation) capex is producing the increased sales expecte. That was never the case in the PH Australia expansion.

Also the margins for KFC are not that low in retail terms, better than the Warehouse Red Sheds in fact.

SNOOPY






Of course we have forgotten about all those divies haven't we

In the same period cash divies were $62.6M .... so the $52.1M from the propert sales have gone to divies ... or avoided the need to borrow to pay the divies.

Benevolent company that RBD ..... win Lotto and give it all to the family members (shareholders that is) ..... to keep the family members happy so they don't leave home

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Hi Winner69 I've been around kicking a can amusing myself in some depraved manner waiting for someone to say something to make my ears prick up, it hasn't happened and I think Bling is right RBD are heading to 80 cents.I will re-assess my situation when they hit 80 cents might buy some more.



You coming onto the Bling wagon? At 80 cents this pup will be a corporate play. Bling dont know when and if, but at that level it is tempting for a predictor who has the ability and firepower to make RBD work. Those that crunch too much numbers are blinded by the pure business itself and the future potential.

[Scuffer]

I'm with you on this one Bling its just a matter of time before the big boys start to look in the RBD direction then it will be all on, this co. has potential with the right direction, circles and cycles thats what its all about for the big money.Rbd has to be almost at the bottom if not below it, 80cents is looking good.

[OneUp]

Cobb & Co used to be a great restaurant chain.

Tastes change. Competition intensifies. Not too many Cobb & Cos left now.

Don't assume this will bounce back. The brands are sick (except Starbucks).

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Cobb & Co used to be a great restaurant chain.

Tastes change. Competition intensifies. Not too many Cobb & Cos left now.

Don't assume this will bounce back. The brands are sick (except Starbucks).


THANKS for that.. [8D]

[The Doctor]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Cobb & Co used to be a great restaurant chain.

Tastes change. Competition intensifies. Not too many Cobb & Cos left now.

Don't assume this will bounce back. The brands are sick (except Starbucks).


b/s SHED ALL BRANDS except KFC...and you have a great business!

[Scuffer]

Does anyone honestly think that KFC is gonna go the way of Cobb an Co, I suppose Coca Cola could go the same way as well:D get real.I'm off to kick a can.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Cobb & Co used to be a great restaurant chain.

Tastes change. Competition intensifies. Not too many Cobb & Cos left now.

Don't assume this will bounce back. The brands are sick (except Starbucks).


LOL your analysis is wrong. Cobb & Co was badly run, large debt in a competitive market. KFC is a great brand with little to no competition. Red Rooster is a joke and will fold soon. Starbucks is a great international brand, if only RBD can run it the way it is run overseas. PH is a dog and needs to be sold or closed down.

RBD is a great company in the right hands, but only in the right hands. Great cashflow and great potential to introduce other international brands to NZ.

[Halebop]

Any company is a great company in the right hands but few companies manage to prove a "great" status beyond short bursts of cyclical growth.

I think it is clear from the level of investment KFC is requiring and their historical struggle to lift sales to the rate of inflation that it is hardly in the "optimally operated" category. Even now that sales appear to be responding to investment, growth in profits are still elusive. Not so for growth in debt though.

Don't consign the pizza business to a trade sale so quickly - I doubt the price would give the company much satisfaction. With proper strategy, pizza can deliver good margins. Over time margin management is easier to achieve with pizza toppings than with grain fed chicken, even at sub $10 pizzas. Hell proved the business need not be about price but obviously PH's strategy of staying in the middle by competing at both ends is a dud. Their advertising is not faintly emotive and stinks of middle of the road institutional moderation. I guess middle of the road encapsulates where they find themselves right now - unfortunately bunnies have a poor track record of survival in such locations. Even 2 parts of the unholy marketing trinity (Coke and McDonalds, Disney hasn't yet clicked on) have worked out that their bland and one size fits all institutional offers were tired.

Starbucks is a strange one - demographics are right for it, the offer is adequate, RBD's delivery of the concept is OK (not great but I think it passes) but it just doesn't make much money. This could reflect the terms of their franchise but even if this is so, it would also reflect RBDs ability to screw up strategy and mis-calculate value propositions. If it's not due to a punitive franchise agreement then it reflects their inability to run food service businesses properly. The difficult thing is ascertaining if in-fill unit development will deliver economies of scale or just cannibalise existing sales and prolong low returns.

[nelehdine]

Got some spare cash ....

mmmm ... Restraunt Brands or mix of Macquarie Bank and BHP and News Corp. I don't see the point of investing in a dog business/share trying to be the clever dick who bought at the bottom when there are so many world class businesses to invest in with your NZD worth 91.25c across the ditch ... just doesn't make any sense to me.

[Scuffer]

Good point Nel, are those companies sitting on lows or are you just going for the dividends and projected long term growth.

[nelehdine]

Just buying quality companies at a fair price. As Warren Buffett says in his books "price is what you pay, value is what you get". Just because RBD is trading at about 1/2 recent levels, doesn't mean it's good value yet, likewise just because BHP is almost double its price of 2 years ago doesn't mean it's still not good value ....

[Bling_Bling]

RBD's wealth was destroyed by bad management. All they need to do now is replace management and/or a new owner to turn it around. The right people will make a difference. The fundamentals of the sector RBD is in is still growing at a good rate.

[Rumplestiltskin]

Looking at RBD on a purely statistical basis, it's share price doubled in the 3 months between mid Oct 1998 and mid Jan 1999. It doubled again in the 18 months betweeen Nov 2000 and May 2002 and it gained 60% in the 18 months between Dec 2003 and June 2005.
Timed right it is possible to spin this straw into gold.
I'm dusting off my spinning wheel.

[Onthemoney]

A donkey is a donkey even if you call it a horse....

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Rumplestiltskin

Looking at RBD on a purely statistical basis, it's share price doubled in the 3 months between mid Oct 1998 and mid Jan 1999. It doubled again in the 18 months betweeen Nov 2000 and May 2002 and it gained 60% in the 18 months between Dec 2003 and June 2005.
Timed right it is possible to spin this straw into gold.
I'm dusting off my spinning wheel.


START spinning Rumpie and let her go start eating your Mr Chips along the ROAD we cant MISS.. [8D]

[troyvdh]

...be honest...who eats this stuff any way.....get a life.....

[Scuffer]

The people who eat it, eat it at times when they can't be bothered to cook or can't cook like when they have finished a night on the town.

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

A donkey is a donkey even if you call it a horse....


I recall everyone calling WHS a donkey/Dog when they were doing badly in Aussie and trading at just over $3. And now everyone is callin git a horse. Bunch of sheep investors.


quote:Originally posted by troyvdh

...be honest...who eats this stuff any way.....get a life.....


I recall alot of people in my area saying the same thing about WHS when they first start with only a few stores. Most in remuera wouldnt even be caught seen shopping at the WHS and now everyone including the Remuera housewives and their husbands shop there.

[BRICKS]

BLING remember 69 would have died than buy when WHS was $2.50 still very clear in the MIND.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

People are still going to buy KFC, RBD have them all in NZ, the market is sewn up go into KFC in ChCh. in the early hours on the weekend you have to queue to get food, people always pay for food especially after copious amounts of alcohol its called the munchies.Bricks keep selling ya chips to them they will come good its just the bottom of a cycle on the back of the failed pizzahut forray into oz, the market will right itself, I'm sure of it.

[tim23]

When was WHS $2.50 did it really get that low?

[Halebop]

Bricks you might want to check on the low price of WHS, your recall is not quite as clear as you imagine.

[Scuffer]

Without checking if my memory serves me well wasn't it about $2.90 -$3 on its lows about two to three years ago.

[tim23]

I thought about $3 as well - remember thinking at the time that Pumpkin Patch share price was going to overtake WHS and it may have briefly.

[Rumplestiltskin]

The lowest in the last 5 years was on 13 May 2005 when WHS closed at 3.06

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by tim23

I thought about $3 as well - remember thinking at the time that Pumpkin Patch share price was going to overtake WHS and it may have briefly.

Don't think it ever did but it was close.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Bricks you might want to check on the low price of WHS, your recall is not quite as clear as you imagine.


BET it was clear that Halie never bought that stock as well, Halie the biggest non holder in NEW ZEALAND.. [8D]

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

...Halie the biggest non holder...

It's true there are many companies I don't hold. Consequently I've missed out on such standout value plays as Restaurant Brands, Evans and Tate and Smiths City.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

...Halie the biggest non holder in New Zealand...

It's true there are many companies I don't hold. Consequently I've missed out on such standout value plays as Restaurant Brands, Evans and Tate and Smiths City.


O modest Halie lets look at Smiths City a company that increases its store numbers & floor plate along with cum div year by year and BRICKS is now in at a very low entry PRICE.. a true NZX INVESTMENT..

There are not many of them.. [8D]

[tim23]

Halebop you forgot Feltex

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

...Halie the biggest non holder...

It's true there are many companies I don't hold. Consequently I've missed out on such standout value plays as Restaurant Brands, Evans and Tate and Smiths City.


Those Evans & tate ETW are atill worth 15 cents

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69


quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by BRICKS

...Halie the biggest non holder...

It's true there are many companies I don't hold. Consequently I've missed out on such standout value plays as Restaurant Brands, Evans and Tate and Smiths City.


Those Evans & tate ETW are atill worth 15 cents


69 so your in ETW good luck, Bricks got out a very long time ago at a PROFIT.. and timie23.5 never in Feltex but bet you WHERE.. [8D]

[winner69]

Bling ..... your 80 cent bids getting close to the head of the queue mate ...... may need to revise them down .... otherwise you might end up as a reluctant shareholder

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Bling ..... your 80 cent bids getting close to the head of the queue mate ...... may need to revise them down .... otherwise you might end up as a reluctant shareholder


DONT worry Bling you wont have to push W69 out of the way to BUY as he will be standing there hoping he wont fall under a BUS.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

Bling ..... your 80 cent bids getting close to the head of the queue mate ...... may need to revise them down .... otherwise you might end up as a reluctant shareholder


Thanks for your concerns mate! I am all CASHED UP and can afford to buy and hold. I am a value investor and short/med term price movement doesnt mean much to me. In fact, the lower they go the better the opportunity for me to buy more. Abit like WHS when it was a real dog around the $3-$4 mark. Rest assure I will be putting some of these away around these level. :)

[Scuffer]

I still think this mob are ripe for a takeover, just waiting for the bottom, got some already but they are red, things will pick up for RBD its just a matter of time people will always eat KFC and they will always drink coffee, pizza is in a price war eveywhere with smalltime operators in abundance but the squeeze is on and a lot will fold the pressure is on the smally boys a few have shipped out already just in for the quick kill build the business and offload.
Bling you will be happy with this one an Bricks just loves them cos they buy his chips.

[tim23]

I get concerned with their wage bill, they tend to pay only minimum wage and that rises each year and with a tight labour market their ability to attract good staff is also a concern.

[Scuffer]

Good staff always move on and up, realistically not many would look at a career with KFC, Pizza hut or Starbucks unless they were high in management.The can kickers at the bottom are just there temporary anyway, but I get your point and agree, pass the peanuts please:D[:D

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer
its just a matter of time people will always eat KFC



Yeah...until it kills them.

Ignore the trend to healthier menus at your peril.

[Scuffer]

Mmmmm! death by KFC never thought about that one, personaly don't eat the stuff but lots do.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp


quote:Originally posted by Scuffer
its just a matter of time people will always eat KFC



Yeah...until it kills them.

Ignore the trend to healthier menus at your peril.



EVERYONE dies dose not matter what you EAT.. just some faster than OTHERS.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

Pigs will eat anything and they will be snout deep in this trough soon watch your chips getting gorged Bricks.[:p]

[clearasmud]

Fastfood are good jobs for young people.
Shareholders haven't been looked after by management.
Businesses must be ripe for takeover.Who knows when.

How is the cash flow situation?

[boysy]

with no signs of management sorting things out why would a t/o occur now when they can simply sit to the side and watch RBD's sp fall further. i realy do feel for shareholders of RBD but if a takeover does occur its the faithful that will benifit and i might have to take my words back

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

with no signs of management sorting things out why would a t/o occur now when they can simply sit to the side and watch RBD's sp fall further. i realy do feel for shareholders of RBD but if a takeover does occur its the faithful that will benefit and i might have to take my words back


THATS the whole idea BUY when you think the bums has fallen off no good after the BOUNCE.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

with no signs of management sorting things out why would a t/o occur now when they can simply sit to the side and watch RBD's sp fall further. i realy do feel for shareholders of RBD but if a takeover does occur its the faithful that will benifit and i might have to take my words back


LOL... Once management have got things sorted the share price would rally and the predators will have to pay a higher price. This is the idea time for a hostile T/O if any.


quote:Originally posted by OneUp


quote:Originally posted by Scuffer
its just a matter of time people will always eat KFC



Yeah...until it kills them.

Ignore the trend to healthier menus at your peril.



Anything will kill you if you eat too much of it. The answer is moderation and a balance diet. I do eat KFC occasionally, esp when they have the Hot & Tasty out.

All these positive talk is pushing up the SP.. Bling wants the price DOWN not up!

[boysy]

I was once an investor in RBD thankfully i sold but why would preditors act now when it looks as though the shareprice will continue its 2 year downward trend ?. i agree with you whole heartedly that RBD can do well but it needs new management and what sort of t/o share price are you expecting. I assume that many downtrodden RBD investers would jump at the oportunity to get out whatever the offer. Im just sceptical of how good an offer will be if there is one of course. :(

[Rumplestiltskin]

$1.40 would probably see some willing sellers at this point in time but it may need to be a bit more in 9-12 months time if things pan out.(excuse the pun). Wasn't there some speculation or rumour that there was interest at 1.30 and the CEO was pushing to sell before she got the boot? If so, it would be hoped the Board know what they are doing.

[Bling_Bling]

Between $120-$160 is the price. I would like shareholders to vote and kick few on the old board members out the door and replace them with a new and exciting board of directors.

[boysy]

you honestly think that a preditors bid would need to be that high at current market prices ?. i mean thats a 50ish% premium and this premium looks set to increase as the only news keeping sp up is t/o speculation and new mgmt.

[Viking]

I sold all mine RBD couple of years ago losing quite a bit. I still keep an eye with the news with regard to RBD from time to time~ I like them just because I drink coffee during office hour and eat pizza on Sat when there is a AB game, and kids get their KFC treat on Sunday~ still I find it difficult to see how these would worth someone paying $1.20 or more for this company.

[Rumplestiltskin]

quote:Originally posted by boysy

you honestly think that a preditors bid would need to be that high at current market prices ?. i mean thats a 50ish% premium and this premium looks set to increase as the only news keeping sp up is t/o speculation and new mgmt.

I don't think there is much take over speculation built in at 83 cents. That evaporated back in March. A waiting game now for the next 1/4 ly update on sales.

[boysy]

exactly i mean its currently $0.85 im thinking a 30% premium would be lucky for RBD investors especially with the downtrend a 30% premium would be $1.10 at the moment:(

[Bling_Bling]

WHS shares traded just over $3 prior to the T/O and then traded as high as $7. The market is not always right, especially the fund managers. Why else whould you only get crap returns from unit trusts and funds?

I would guess there would be a hostile T/O if there was one. There are no major shareholders to block a hostile. Stuff the directors, their only contribution to RBD is destruction of shareholders wealth.

[boysy]

There is just a slight difference between the WHS and RBD its like comparing apples to oranges i just personaly dont belive RB is a buy now as what would happen to the shareprice if this takeover talk/hype melted away. Of the T/O targets currently RBD is ONE of many. Hostile T/O will target companys that are UP and Coming not ones that are on the downward spiral or not until they hit rock bottem and RBD isnt in either of those catogories so how can you expect a T/O ?

[Rumplestiltskin]

A new CEO must be close. The right appointment may help the market's view of this beaten up stock.
Tried a vegetarian cheesy-bites pizza a few nights ago. A long time since I've tried a Pizza Hut pizza and it was delicious.I was pleasantly surprised, and on a cold night was much more appealing than Subway. Why Dominos is so strong in the market place beats me.Their product (which I had consumed previously) was very inferior, even allowing for price.

[Scuffer]

Hi Rumpy well what you said about product superiority is what will drag RBD shareprice out of the depression but it will only come on the wave of public sway and that could take awhile, but a positive head in the right direction. RBD are getting close to a turnaround and I for one am expecting the sp to regain some of its losses soon.:)

[Nitaa]

Im new to this forum so no one out there bite my head off.

I have watched views on this site for over six months and decided it was time to register. Anyway, this stock is not a growth stock and is having to spend a lot of its money trying to retain its piece of the pie. I find it hard to see where the growth is. As a defensive stock then perhaps but i dont think its going to grow doing what they are doing.

Short term the only real hope i see is a takeover or NZ opeing up the immirgation laws to let in more Pacific Islanders into NZ, especially with KFC and to a lesser extent Pizza Hut.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Nita

Im new to this forum so no one out there bite my head off.

I have watched views on this site for over six months and decided it was time to register. Anyway, this stock is not a growth stock and is having to spend a lot of its money trying to retain its piece of the pie. I find it hard to see where the growth is. As a defensive stock then perhaps but i dont think its going to grow doing what they are doing.

Short term the only real hope i see is a takeover or NZ opeing up the immirgation laws to let in more Pacific Islanders into NZ, especially with KFC and to a lesser extent Pizza Hut.




Nita none of the things you said is going on or will happen RBD is just an ordinary stock been around a long time and none of the quick fix`s will happen if it would they would have been done a long time ago, T/O also is not a fix the company has to trade out in very competitive biz so you should study a bit more and to get to know the COMPANY.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

Nita some of your comments about the immigration laws and pacific islanders are foolish listen to yourself and judge yourself appropriately surely you must realise you have issues to make inflammatory comments you are not endearing yourself to anyone except the odd xenophobe.

[Nitaa]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Nita some of your comments about the immigration laws and pacific islanders are foolish listen to yourself and judge yourself appropriately surely you must realise you have issues to make inflammatory comments you are not endearing yourself to anyone except the odd xenophobe.
If you have taken anything out of context then my sincerest apology. After reveiwing i can see how yo7u may have jumped to that conclusion. But let me stipulate that was not my intention so please be careful not to assume.

I will try and put things in perspective. I am speaking demographically here so lets break it down somewhat. I do not have any specific numbers and if you can prove otherwise then i am happy to be corrected.

KFC. Large % of KFC buyers are Pacific Islanders and Maoris. Their average wage and afforability makes this a logical choice. Comparing to europeans the P I's spending ratio would on KFC would far outstrip them. Bottom line. More Pacific Islanders would mean more revenue.

Pizza Hut. In a fierce competition with other Pizza company's and they are losing the battle. They now lack a USP. Its a slow death and noone seems to come up with any bright ideas how to counter it apart from maybe giving the stores a makeover.

Starbucks.

Gets a lot of the rich overseas students and profession people. This market is also now flooded but at least they have a USP.

To summarise my previous posting. How on earth do you think they are going to increase the bottom line. The market is shrinking and and RBD seem to lack direction. All is not lost as YUM have had a reasonable financial year so if they can takeover then maybe they can see some areas where it can be improved.

Finally, if i have offended any Pacific Islanders then please accept my apology. Scuffer, do tell me what is inflamatory? If not then please dont be so PC. I hope you are not offended by my comments that rich overseas students and professions make up a large chunck going to Starbucks.

What the toot is this world coming to.

[Halebop]

I personally didn't read anything into your comments Nita other than the demographic angle. KFC's sales have historically and demonstrably been driven by a "pacific" demographic out of proportion to their disposable income. Anyone who has seen a fast food focus group or relevant market research data can see this at play. I haven't had "inside" information on this for a while but have wondered if there has been any Asian spin off as well, particularly in Auckland where the Asian demographic is now into double digits.

[Scuffer]

Hi Nita maybe I jumped the gun nice to know your not a racist.

[Steve]

Being a RBD shareholder with a minimum holding, I was pleased to get my annual shareholder 'bonus' in terms of a voucher for a KFC toasted wrap.

The first time I used it, the wrap was a complete disaster complete with crusty chicken! However, the girl had given me back the voucher so I felt no guilt in having a 'free' freebie as it tasted past its use-by.

The second time I used my voucher really made up for the previous disappointment. Interestingly, the voucher was again returned to me. Perhaps they felt sorry for me being a RBD shareholder?!

Today, I used it for a third time and this time they kept the voucher. Now I will have to wait to see what bonus I recieve next year...

[boysy]

They might have to revise there profit forcasts after your visits to KFC steve:D

[Bling_Bling]

Steve is eating away the RBD profit!!! LOL

As for Nito the dildo's question about growth. I would say RBD at 82 cents, the market has already priced in little to no growth for this pup. The company is worth well over $1.00. For a fast food chain to set up and move into NZ, it will be far more cost and time efficient to take out RBD to start from scratch. If a good operator is running RBD there is still potential for growth by introducing new international brands and growing existing brands. As I said previously, the market is not always right. You just have to look at WHS price of around $3 just prior to T/O announcement to see that the market is not always tight.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Steve

Being a RBD shareholder with a minimum holding, I was pleased to get my annual shareholder 'bonus' in terms of a voucher for a KFC toasted wrap.

The first time I used it, the wrap was a complete disaster complete with crusty chicken! However, the girl had given me back the voucher so I felt no guilt in having a 'free' freebie as it tasted past its use-by.

The second time I used my voucher really made up for the previous disappointment. Interestingly, the voucher was again returned to me. Perhaps they felt sorry for me being a RBD shareholder?!

Today, I used it for a third time and this time they kept the voucher. Now I will have to wait to see what bonus I receive next year...



WELL as an overseas owner the Computer share company does not send vouchers or annual reports for there companies clients any more prob if you ask they may but it only happen of LATE.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

I've said it before gotta be worth the sp they are currently at, Burgerfuel are supposedly worth a dollar and someone is buying them HaHa!:D

[Nitaa]

At this rate i would suspect a strong possibility that Yum will make another play for RBD, especially if there are some bad results on the horizon. Within another 6 months especially if the share price hits around 70 cents.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Nita

At this rate i would suspect a strong possibility that Yum will make another play for RBD, especially if there are some bad results on the horizon. Within another 6 months especially if the share price hits around 70 cents.

When did Yum make a play for RBD?

[Onthemoney]

Yum don't need to make a play. All they need to do is not renew the franchise licenses.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

Yum don't need to make a play. All they need to do is not renew the franchise licenses.


Even if RBD made no profit YUM would still be raking in the cash. Because they are paid via a percentage of RBD store turnover. YUM will never make a play for RBD. Why should they? The existing situation is the ideal position for YUM. They are using other people's capital (RBD shareholders) to generate their own profits, regardless of the profitability of that other people's business! The old 'something from nothing' trick. It is a pretty attractive business model.

Incidently for those wanting to find out more about 'YUM Brands Inc.', the restaurant franchise company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, I have just given them a going over on the 'Focus Investment Group' on 'that other channel'.

SNOOPY

[Sideshow Bob]

quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by Nita

At this rate i would suspect a strong possibility that Yum will make another play for RBD, especially if there are some bad results on the horizon. Within another 6 months especially if the share price hits around 70 cents.

When did Yum make a play for RBD?



Must be just about time for King Win Laurel to have anothjer go for RBD. Or Telstra. Or Pike River.......;)

[Onthemoney]

quote:Originally posted by Snoopy


quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney

Yum don't need to make a play. All they need to do is not renew the franchise licenses.


Even if RBD made no profit YUM would still be raking in the cash. Because they are paid via a percentage of RBD store turnover. YUM will never make a play for RBD. Why should they? The existing situation is the ideal position for YUM. They are using other people's capital (RBD shareholders) to generate their own profits, regardless of the profitability of that other people's business! The old 'something from nothing' trick. It is a pretty attractive business model.

Incidently for those wanting to find out more about 'YUM Brands Inc.', the restaurant franchise company listed on the New York Stock Exchange, I have just given them a going over on the 'Focus Investment Group' on 'that other channel'.

SNOOPY







Couldn't agree more Snoopy. But when do Yum become unhappy about their return out of New Zealand?

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Onthemoney


Couldn't agree more Snoopy. But when do Yum become unhappy about their return out of New Zealand?


Why would YUM be unhappy?

Turnover up by 40% in ten years in NZD terms. Probably up around 70% in USD terms? That equates to a 70% profit increase for YUM out of RBD since 1997. New ten year agreement for KFC signed off

If YUM are unhappy, they can let RBD management know in 2017.

SNOOPY

[BRICKS]

WE will have to move fast and get a KFC up at AULKLAND AIRPORT to feed the ARABS as they get off there private JETS.. [8D]

[Bling_Bling]

KFC should be in every airport and shopping malls.

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

KFC should be in every airport and shopping malls.


GOOD one Bling, eat your heart out HALIE.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

Who said that there is no room for this co. to grow Pizzahut KFC and starbucks in every major airport in NZ, it works in other airports so why not here.:)

[boysy]

you never know the way RBD has been going burgerfuel might beat them to the airports :D

[Scuffer]

Anythings possible but I would imagine they have thought of the airports before and decided its a no go for some reason.

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

KFC should be in every airport and shopping malls.

I recall there is a KFC in the old KL International airport, not sure about the new airport...

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Steve


quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling

KFC should be in every airport and shopping malls.

I recall there is a KFC in the old KL International airport, not sure about the new airport...



SO that's why Steve keeps missing his planes still going to the OLD INTER,, Been told ARABS love chicken but wont go near PORK.. [8D]

[Nitaa]

I dont think there are many arabs in KL Bricks. I happened to pass through KL internation airport a couple of months back. They have KFC, Burger King, Starbucks but not sure about Pizza Hut.

My guess is that the overheads in NZ airports would be too high for many of the Pizza Huts etc.

[Scuffer]

Probably right Nita, Bricks its muslims that don't eat pork an arab could be any religion.:)

[BRICKS]

quote:Originally posted by Scuffer

Probably right Nita, Bricks its muslims that don't eat pork an arab could be any religion.:)


WHO CARES,, Do i note the RBD share price is FIRMING.. [8D]

[Scuffer]

I also think the price has reached its bottom and should start to climb again unless there is bad news.:)

[Balance]

Good article in the Independent about RBD. Makes the point that Yum makes money irrespective of how badly RBD is doing. Also has Chairman revealing that they did receive offers but considered too low to recommend to shareholders. What's there to stop a hostile offer?

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Balance


Good article in the Independent about RBD. Makes the point that Yum makes money irrespective of how badly RBD is doing. Also has Chairman revealing that they did receive offers but considered too low to recommend to shareholders. What's there to stop a hostile offer?

Which quite co-incidently is what Snoopy said on the previous page ;)

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:Originally posted by Balance


Good article in the Independent about RBD. Makes the point that Yum makes money irrespective of how badly RBD is doing. Also has Chairman revealing that they did receive offers but considered too low to recommend to shareholders. What's there to stop a hostile offer?

Which quite co-incidently is what Snoopy said on the previous page ;)

So does this mean that either Snoopy writes for the Independent, or that Snoopy has been the victim of plagiarism?[:0]

[Bling_Bling]

Stop talking up the SP! Bling wants to buy more shares at around 80 cents!!!



ps: OMG! I just saw an advert for KFC on TV with salad!!! KFC is going healthy... WOOT!

[Onthemoney]

I think the Independent steals sharetrader's thunder.

[Scuffer]

Me too :)

[Scuffer]

Me too, on buying more at 80 cents was what I meant:D

[Uniboy]

A small lift in SP on lower volume than the downwards fall.

Beware[8]

UB:D

[Onthemoney]

quote:Originally posted by Uniboy

A small lift in SP on lower volume than the downwards fall.

Beware[8]

UB:D


Another 5 cent fall towards Quarterly Announcement I say.

[lager]

Well, I was right about the share price drop, so my earlier forecast of 75 cents is coming true.

[Snoopy]

14th September 2007

DIRECTOR: RBD: RESTAURANT BRANDS APPOINTS NEW CEO

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited has appointed Russel Creedy as its new
chief executive. He has been acting CEO since the departure of Vicki Salmon
in February.

Chairman Ted van Arkel announced today following an extensive global search process that Mr Creedy has been appointed CEO of Restaurant Brands. Mr Creedy was selected ahead of a number of highly qualified candidates.

"This appointment is very important for the group. We have been through a thorough process starting from a re-evaluation of group priorities and culminating in a choice of the style of leadership and experience we need to achieve a substantial improvement in performance," he said.

"During the past six months the group has undergone a full review of its operations and structure -- a process Russel has been intimately involved with -- and we expect this to be reflected in better trading results over the short to medium term.

"Russel's leadership as acting chief executive over the past six months demonstrated to us he was the right person to lead Restaurant Brands through its next phase of performance improvement and expected earnings growth. His proven ability to work with stakeholders, including key suppliers and our franchisors to secure benefits for the group, negotiate improved supply-chain relationships and reduce costs also counted heavily in his favour."

South Afrian-born Mr Creedy, 48, joined Restaurant Brands in 2001 as a supply-chain director. Later, as director of business development and supply chain, he led the group through a major expansion which included the opening of 27 new Pizza Hut, 14 new Starbucks Coffee and four new KFC outlets.

Mr Creedy, who holds a bachelor of science (chemistry) and a master of business administration from the University of Witwatersrand, South Africa, has led Restaurant Brands cost-reduction campaign during his six-and-a-half years with the group. His achievements included:
- restructuring the supply chain by setting up a contract warehouse and distribution service for all frozen, chilled and dry goods;
- negotiating various supply contracts, including a seven-year chicken supply agreement worth $280 million, generating savings for KFC in the first year alone of $7.2 million;
- managing Pizza Hut from 2003-2005, achieving good results in an intensely competitive market; and
- the recent restructuring Restaurant Brands' support centre, resulting in savings of $1.2 million.

--------

I am disappointed. The chance to introduce some new blood from outside has been lost. I remember an allegation from the AGM that Creedy was also responsioble for the decline of Pizza Hut in NZ from 2005 to 2007. If true I can see why Creedy hasn't included that amongst his lists of achievements.

Next step for me with this investment is to wait for the next set of sales figures to be released.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, Look on the brightside what a great chance to carry on averaging down. Macdunk

[winner69]

I am disappointed. The chance to introduce some new blood from outside has been lost. I remember an allegation from the AGM that Creedy was also responsioble for the decline of Pizza Hut in NZ from 2005 to 2007. If true I can see why Creedy hasn't included that amongst his lists of achievements.

Next step for me with this investment is to wait for the next set of sales figures to be released.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

I bet you are disapoointed Snoopy .... agree with you this is an opportunity lost

So the guys who have been around the executuve table learning the tricks of the trade from Vicki remain to carrt on the tradition eh

Not many supply chain experts who can negotiate fantastic deals have the charisma to lead from the front and drive great service from those who serve the customers.

Never mind .... maybe they think the current performance is good enough

[Grimy]

And I'm afraid the new KFC advertising is enough to drive me away from the stores.

[Onthemoney]

I bet you are disapoointed Snoopy .... agree with you this is an opportunity lost

So the guys who have been around the executuve table learning the tricks of the trade from Vicki remain to carrt on the tradition eh

Not many supply chain experts who can negotiate fantastic deals have the charisma to lead from the front and drive great service from those who serve the customers.

Never mind .... maybe they think the current performance is good enough

Old boys network - what a great yawn - when will these guys put some of their own money on the line. Next quarterly will be very interesting.

[Onthemoney]

And I'm afraid the new KFC advertising is enough to drive me away from the stores.


Tell me about it next they will be using an old mutt to promote their pizzas.....

[BRICKS]

And I'm afraid the new KFC advertising is enough to drive me away from the stores.

WITH a name like yours hope not to meet you @ KFC..

[Grimy]

It's okay, I'm really very presentable. But don't worry, chances are slim - I only go to KFC maybe twice a year now that the young fella's taste has turned to pizza.

[Dr_Who]

Very dissapointing announcement, but then who would want to be a CEO of a company that will be sold at any day at the right price. I also agree with the advertisements. Maybe they should get a new advertising person for RBD. I will reveiw my RBD holding, may sell it down. What a joke :confused::mad:

[Deev8]

Restaurant Brands have reported second quarter sales across its three New Zealand businesses up 5.8 per cent to $93.6 million, with same store sales up 5 per cent.


Sales at KFC were up $6.3m in the second quarter to $60.7m. On a same store basis KFC sales were up 9.3 per cent for the quarter.


Sales at Pizza Hut New Zealand during the second quarter were $23.1m, with same store sales declining 4%. A substantial improvement on the 8% decline in same store sales in the first quarter of the year.


Starbucks Coffee delivered the 15th consecutive quarter of sales growth, increasing to $9.9m, with same store growth of 2.8 per cent.


NZ Herald - Restaurant Brands turns things around in Q2 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10464415)

[BRICKS]

Mr Chips would like to thank Mr KFC for the Total Store Sales increase of 11.7%..

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Sales up slightly but no announcement about profits which in my opion will have fallen further otherwise they would be trumpeting the fact of a profit increase

[Deev8]

Sales up slightly but no announcement about profits which in my opion will have fallen further otherwise they would be trumpeting the fact of a profit increaseThey were never going to say anything about profits in a quarterly trading statement - that will come relatively soon in their interim results.

[Dr_Who]

The market seems to view the result positively, up 2 cents today. Wonder if they can sustain the growth pattern or is it just a one off.

[Onthemoney]

Pick the positives - don't worry about the negatives

[Dr_Who]

Pick the positives - don't worry about the negatives

I am more of a med-long term investor, so I usually buy undervalued stocks with potential for future growth. I do have some RBD that I got above 90 cents. The current board and management hasnt given me confidence to accummulate more shares. RBD will eventually need a leader with vision and leadership to grow RBD after it restructures.

[Deev8]

Restaurant Brands reported improved half-year results this morning:

- NPAT on continuing operations (excluding non trading items) for the half year was $5.4 million. Up 12% on the $4.9 million achieved for the prior year comparable period.

- NPAT including non trading items was $4.5 million, up $4.3 million on prior year. The prior year included a write down of the Pizza Hut Victoria investment.

- Total revenues from continuing operations (New Zealand) for the first half were $164.3 million, up $7.9 million or 5.1% on prior year.

- Interim dividend of 3.0 cents per share, fully imputed. A 20% increase on the 2.5 cent dividend paid last year, recognising improved trading conditions and cash flow.

Full results announcement (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=155122)

[Dr_Who]

Nice result. Lets hope they can keep up the momentum. :)

[BRICKS]

ANOTHER good report KFC up 8% so Mr Chips will be up 8% as MCH. sends 50% production of chips now goes to Australia the company now does not have rely on RBD that much as in the past, Good on the customers for eating well don't worry all pizza will soon be GONE..

[Scuffer]

There is a war in the high streets and suburban shopping centres of NZ, as pizza chains jostle for market position, the big boys will win in the end the smaller private pizza chains will slowly fall by the wayside, the cut price deals at some are so cheap you have to wonder if they are trying to buy the publics custom, I personally know of one small pizza shop offering a deal on a large pizza for $3, this sort of trading cannot last, there will be shops closing.

[BRICKS]

DO you buy any at $3 as I don't like them any price is dear, But look at this way RBD just closed down 7 Pizza Red roof huts in the last Quarter well that puts 70 - 80 people out of work our company doing its bit for the unemployed...

[Snoopy]

Restaurant Brands reported improved half-year results this morning:

- NPAT on continuing operations (excluding non trading items) for the half year was $5.4 million. Up 12% on the $4.9 million achieved for the prior year comparable period.

- Total revenues from continuing operations (New Zealand) for the first half were $164.3 million, up $7.9 million or 5.1% on prior year.

- Interim dividend of 3.0 cents per share, fully imputed. A 20% increase on the 2.5 cent dividend paid last year, recognising improved trading conditions and cash flow.


I got back from my Christmas break finding that RBD had hit my 'stop buy'. So I am now the proud owner of more RBD shares, bought at 87c. I can't remember exactly when I put the order in. It was probably a couple of months ago. I guess it just shows that 'price favours the patient'.

In a nutshell KFC is doing better than expected, and the threatening Ozzie invader 'Red Rooster' has been confined to a couple of 'hen runs' in Auckland.

Starbucks is doing OK, and I reckon it is now marginally profitable even including the head office cost allocation millstone. However Starbuck's main purpose seems to be to provide new director Sue Suckling with something to do and keep her away from meddling (sic) with the old boys network controlling KFC and Pizza Hut, rather than to earn any serious money for shareholders. Personally I think Starbucks should be sold back to the master franchisor. That would release enough cash to pay down some of that RBD debt, without affecting overall profit much, and allow management to focus more on the real problems the company faces.

Pizza Hut is getting smaller but not at a rate fast enough to compensate for the shrinking profitability of the pizza market. They are losing money and remain the problem area for the company. I really wanted to see PH turn before I invested more. But progress in the other divisions has outstripped my expectations, which is why I put my 'buy' order in - at the right price.

SNOOPY

discl: Hold RBD, average entry price now $1.23

[duncan macgregor]

Please all rise for this session of the Sharechat internet court, Judge Mick 100 presiding.

The defendent, Snoopy, is here to answer the following question

"Before you decide to hold or buy more shares in a company whose shareprice is plumetting in value - eg, restarant brands
Ask your self this question:"

"Is there a possibility that my decision making process is being affected by 'escaslation of commitment'?"

"So how about it Snoopy? Are you suffering from escalation of commitment?"

---------

A fair question Judge Mick. Now please allow me to present my evidence.

I am a foundation shareholder of RBD. I acquired my first shares in June 1997 at an effective $2.03. In March 1998 I purchased some more at an equivalent price of $1.29. I have made several purchases in subsequent periods, priced as follows: September 1998 62c (equivalent), February 2000 $1.20 (equivalent) and another batch at $1.18 (equivalent). More purchases were made in September 2000 at $1.14, March 2002 at $2.08, July 2002 at $1.71, September 2003 at $1.25, September 2004 at $1.26, December 2004 at $1.26, March 2005 at $1.29, July 2005 at $1.60, October 2005 at $1.30 and finally later in that same month at $1.24. My weighted average purchase price is $1.26. My weighted average share holding time is 2.5 years. (That's because most of my holding has been bought in the last couple of years, during the time RBD has suffered from the most derision on this forum.)

Based on a market price of $1.33 I have made an average capital gain of 2.5cps per year held. The current net yield is 10cps, or 12.5cps if we add the annualised capital gain. That gives a gross yield annual return of 13.8%. Now, I'm not going to claim that is a fantastic return, although it is double what you would earn in the bank. But I do see that return as more than satisfactory, given the conservative nature of the underlying investment.

Some people see successful investment, in the cricket analogy, as a process of hitting as many sixes as you can. Personally I prefer a technique which gets less headlines but over the long term can be just as rewarding if not more so (because you are taking less risks). I refer to the 'pushing for singles' method. Just go about your job quietly clocking up the runs and keeping the scoreboard ticking over.

Being an investor in RBD won't score you many bonus swoons at cocktail parties. But it's a great investment to put your mother into. That's because my quoted returns are IMO, quite sustainable - even if the business doesn't grow at all! That's why RBD should be a core holding of any income based portfolio. For this whole century, RBD has had a consistent dividend income record that puts *all* the listed property trusts to shame.

As for the 'plummeting share price', there has been no long term plummet since 1998, since the inital fall from grace after the IPO. The share price today is more or less what it was in 1998. Since RBD have paid out nearly all of their profits as dividends since then, this is to be expected.

The case for investment, since 1998 has always been based on dividend yield. Investing in this company from a dividend perspective makes as much sense in 2006 as it did in 1998 and virtually every year in between. Therefore I reject the 'escalation of commitment' argument. If you look at 'new' investment in RBD in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006 it has made huge sense every year, for eight different annually discrete reasons.

RBD, highly profitable, highly reliable and proven as a sound investment for every year of this century. Judge Mick, I rest my case.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD, and very satisfied with the investment performance. A reminder from the past SNOOPY of your determination to commit financial suicide.

[Snoopy]

A reminder from the past SNOOPY of your determination to commit financial suicide.

I just knew I would cajoule you into replying Macca. I expected one of your usual raving responses though, not that you would turn my own words against me! I think you are getting better at this. Anyway it's a fair call.

I did some retro-arithmetic on the case I presented to 'Judge Mick'. It looks like the average share price I paid was $1.36 in October 2005, not the $1.26 I stated at the time. Not sure if it was just a typo but it does make sense that I have reduced my average purchase price by more than 3cps, given all the 'sub dollar' purchasing I have done since 2005.

You think I am on the road to oblivion with RBD? I have been giving other retailers the 'once over', in particular STU, HLG and MHI, to see if I should 'cut my losses' and switch. While all of those companies are IMO better companies than RBD, they are not compellingly better value. So I have decided to 'stay put' and add to my position in RBD - in a measured way of course. And thanks to 'value averaging' the lower the share price goes, the more shares I can buy for my dollar.

I am not quite sure why I bothered to work out my average buy price into RBD. Probably because you think it is important and I think it is important to present a 'warts and all' picture. However all of my share purchases are 'future focussed' and 'portfolio balancing focussed'.

I wanted more shares in retail and I still think it is worth 'hanging in there' with RBD for the recovery potential. I admit to having a bias for investing in firms dealing in food because people have to buy food no matter what the state of the economy. In a 'down market' today, RBD was up nearly 2.5%. That is the kind of performance I am after.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[duncan macgregor]

Snoopy i see you were the only investor to select RBD in the share investor contest along with TUA. GOOD LUCK MATE YOU CERTAINLY NEED IT. Macdunk

[Snoopy]

Snoopy i see you were the only investor to select RBD in the share investor contest along with TUA. GOOD LUCK MATE YOU CERTAINLY NEED IT. Macdunk

I am much more interested in what the professional investors are doing with RBD than what is popular Macdunk. Like for instance director Danny Diab who as at 27th November 2007 held 4,000,000 (4m) RBD shares.

4m shares is up from the 3.444m shares he held as at 1st April 2007. Going back through the shareholder reports we find Danny's holding was 3.444m shares on 9th March 2006, 3.444m shares as at 31st March 2005, 3.444m shares as at 29th February 2004, 3.312m shares as at 28th February 2003, 3.100m shares as at 28th February 2002, 3.1m shares as at 31st December 2000, 2.5m shares as at 31st December 1999 and 2.0m shares on 21st January 1999. No holding was listed for Diab on 20th January 1998.

I can't say the exact days that Danny bought his shares. But if you regard the share price as at 30th September - somewhat near when the annual result came out - as 'indicative' it looks like Danny purchased his initial 2.0m holding where the share price was around 80c (September 1998).

The increase in shares held between December 1999 and December 2000 was 0.166m from the 1:12 bonus issue, leaving 0.333m to be purchased on market at the '30th September 1999 indicative price' of $1.30.

Danny increased his holding again by 0.6m shares at the '30th September 2000 indicative price' of $1.14 and a further 0.212m shares at the 'indicative price of 30th September 2002' of $1.72. This 2002-2003 period also corresponds to when Danny was appointed a director of the company and when RBD bought in to Pizza Hut Victoria, expecting great things. On the indicative date of 30th September 2003, Danny bought 0.132m shares at $1.25.

Danny has made no more purchases of shares until the last few months. Over that time he has increased his holding by 0.556m shares at the 30th September 2007 indicative price of 87c. Let me just repeat that point in case you didn't get it. Danny has made *no purchases of RBD shares for around four years* (all the time that RBD was expanding into Australia).

I estimate Danny's holding price for RBD shares as follows:

2,000,000 x $0.80 = $1,600,000
166,000 x 0 = $ 0
333,000 x $1.30 = $432,900
600,000 x $1.14 = $684,000
212,000 x $1.72 = $364,640
132,000 x $1.25 = $165,000
556,000 x $0.87= $483,720

I calculate from that an estimated average entry price of 93cps.

No doubt you Macdunk will claim that Danny is a fool and has 'lost money', completely ignoring all the dividends he has scooped up along the way. But even accepting the worst of your misconceptions as fact, I think you would have to be impressed by the timing of Danny's entry points to increase his position in RBD. He hasn't always got it right, but I don't think there are many shareholders around with an average entry price as low as what he has achieved.

I am putting my cash on the line that Danny, complete with his insider knowledge of the industry, has 'done it again' and that around now is the best time to invest in RBD since 2003. Or put another way it is absolutely the worst time to sell out, as you would have me do.

SNOOPY

discl: hold RBD

[duncan macgregor]

SNOOPY, You are dead right Macdunk thinks that anyone with inside knowledge averaging down buying RBD is not only a fool, but a complete idiot. I presume if you look up FELTEX shareholdings in the past you will find a similar fool. Then we have the poor gullible fools who invested in finance companies thinking it was a safe investment. I notice you standing up making excuses for TUA on the other channel. I presume you are averaging down on that one as well before it goes under. I would think its the sheep following the goats in this instance you want to be more carefull who you follow, it might be a lemming. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

YOU know it takes a FOOL to know a FOOL..

[duncan macgregor]

YOU know it takes a FOOL to know a FOOL.. That must mean it would be a foolish thing to get to know you then BRICKS. Happy new year BRICKS may the fleas of a thousand camels never infest your armpits. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

That must mean it would be a foolish thing to get to know you then BRICKS. Happy new year BRICKS may the fleas of a thousand camels never infest your armpits. Macdunk

BY you own word makes you THE FOOL..

[BRICKS]

So who makes the bigger Fool?

The Fool who knows the FOOL
Or the Fool who the FOOL knows

GO and ask Mc Duck..

[BRICKS]

MEANWHILE at RBD. BRICKS has doubled his holding and now the holding price is @ 88 cents total just like Snoopy says a bargain when the mob catches on, Now sit back cop it from
"THE FOOL" & "FULL TIME TRADER" tell us all AGAIN..!! where we went WRONG..

[Merseyredboy]

Was in the supermarket last evening... First time in a while.... Couldn't buy a kilo of cheese for under $12, Pizza margins must be hurting.

[The Doctor]

Was in the supermarket last evening... First time in a while.... Couldn't buy a kilo of cheese for under $12, Pizza margins must be hurting.

just put 10% less cheese on.

[BRICKS]

Was in the supermarket last evening... First time in a while.... Couldn't buy a kilo of cheese for under $12, Pizza margins must be hurting.


WELL you must be living in the wrong part of NZ and also a non shareholder of RBD or you would know that Pizza stores are being closed to come down to the real demand,
Meanwhile noted in the paper adds " OWN A PIECE OF HELL " well they are looking for suckers to join the rat race to bankruptcy and when you read the large add the word "pizza"
is only mentioned one time but contains a funny story about HELL..

[BRICKS]

MEANWHILE @ STARBUCKS HQ, the CEO has been sacked and the founder takes control again he has watch profits fall and decided to return to full time management,
Mr Howard Schultz. So you say so wot, if it happens in USA it will come to NZ which can only get better..

US Starbucks share price $US20.28,, NZ RBD share price 0.88 cents now that is a BARGIN..

[duncan macgregor]

I would think that RBD is fairly priced at the moment after dropping about half its share value in the last three years. Their biggest mistake was selling their outlets then leasing them back followed by spending a million bucks a store doing up the land lords premises.
The other mistakes were getting into markets when they have no expertease in not only in the field but in the country. The sp rocketed up from $1-25 to $1-65 in one month which showed the complete lack of business understanding by the shareholders.
I remember arguing with SNOOPY at the time with me saying this dog has sold its kennel to go on an overseas holiday. I would think that if they got back to basics, and stick to their knitting they might just survive. I do notice their adverts aimed at the younger generation which is a step in the right direction, but still doubt that they are capable of making rational business decisions with todays management. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

THANKS Mc Duck for agreeing that RBD is a current bargain but the rest of your story we have heard many times and boring just buy at current PRICES..

[duncan macgregor]

THANKS Mc Duck for agreeing that RBD is a current bargain but the rest of your story we have heard many times and boring just buy at current PRICES.. There you go again BRICKS taking it all to personal like i had insulted your cross eyed handicapped offspring by saying they are nearly as good looking as their father. I never ever said RBD was ever a bargain. I would never buy into such a company with so little practical know how as this. I said it was fairly priced for what it is which is not very high for whatever way you look at it. Learn to be more objective its only a stupid company whose sp is in sharp decline not something to get yourself all steamed up about. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

SO if you don't like other peoples comments stop you repetitive story to Shareholders that are in at Bargain current prices,
we all know your only a "Full Time Trader in AU." lucky for us now trading in NEW ZEALAND..

[rtaylor]

Bought some of these in the late 1990's at about 80 to 90 cps. After a decade, the sp is 87 cents. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Have traded in & out a couple of times over the years as the sp roared to it's high of about 165cps, but on medium-term history it's hardly a buy. . .

[BRICKS]

Bought some of these in the late 1990's at about 80 to 90 cps. After a decade, the sp is 87 cents. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Have traded in & out a couple of times over the years as the sp roared to it's high of about 165cps, but on medium-term history it's hardly a buy. . .

YOUR had a decade of dividends and a trade or two wot else do you WANT..

[keepitsimple]

I too got into rbd in the 90s,and was happy with dividends and increasing sp.Then they announced they were selling there real estate and leasing back i thought thats pretty dumb so i got out when sp was north of $2.00.Its been down hill ever since.But you can make $s on regular short term sp increases

[Halebop]

"Sale & lease back" has been a textbook method of financing ever since I can remember, so it's hardly 'dumb'. The reason for the decline in the share price is not that, but rather the lack of success of their foray into Australia, coupled with strong competition in the local pizza market.
hiawatha

The question is not the method of financing but the timing. Given their performance over the period in question, the property portfolio would have been the most profitable business in the mix. Shareholders might not have enjoyed the same levels of dividends in the interim but we've seen the direction dividends went in the end.

Don't short change them on their lack of success though, Australia and Pizza have not been the only contributors. Coffee, Chicken, Capital Management, CEOs, The Board, Strategy and Operational Pedigree should also take their bows.

[Lizard]

Don't short change them on their lack of success though, Australia and Pizza have not been the only contributors. Coffee, Chicken, Capital Management, CEOs, The Board, Strategy and Operational Pedigree should also take their bows.
:D

Mind you, last time I was in at KFC, they compensated for the coffee factor by giving me Instant and explaining that nobody could get the coffee machine to work...

[Lizard]

Actually, as a family-sized consumer of RBD products, I'd say they've upped their game a little in recent months. However, I still think they've got a short straw in terms of cost inputs and consumer demand at this point in time. Not to mention further capex demands and (I think from memory) more franchises still to renew.

(Sorry, can't get the annual report to download at present to check that.)

[Halebop]

Even I'd agree they have lifted their game but from such a low base isn't much reason to celebrate. They never seem to get their stars to align and luck, unfortunately, has very little to do with that.

[Halebop]

RBD is largely bollocks.

That's what I was saying too! ;)

[Halebop]

[Originally Posted by hiawatha
I don't know how to edit quotes.]

hiawatha

Aww you kidder you :)

[duncan macgregor]

"Sale & lease back" has been a textbook method of financing ever since I can remember, so it's hardly 'dumb'. The reason for the decline in the share price is not that, but rather the lack of success of their foray into Australia, coupled with strong competition in the local pizza market.
hiawatha Sale and lease back is the dumbest method of raising finance ever. The banks lend money cheaper than sale and lease back regardless of the market cycle. Property increases in value by about 10% pa on average plus the landlord has his cut, the banks are about five pc below all that at any given time. Macdunk

[Halebop]

I know how to edit quotes. At least, I've just worked it out. However, I'm not so small minded as to want to bother.
hiawatha

Oh I already knew you weren't small minded when you slapped your "bollocks" on the post :rolleyes:

[Halebop]

Maybe. But what does it do to a company's capital gearing ratio?

I appreciate someone might think "Capital Management" is bollocks but this company's gearing ratio would have been just fine if it's long term cash flow exceeded dividends. Be of assistance if some more of its investments actually managed to exceed cost of capital too. The sorts of areas where bollocks stuff like strategy, operational excellence, CEO selection, board quality and all the rest come in.

[Dr_Who]

It is actually a good business model to sell the building and lease it back, cos RBD is not a property business but rather a food business. The problem is that the incompetant management team blew it all away going into Aussie with blindfolds on. Did they not learn from mistakes of other NZ companies who when galloping overseas and lost all the marbles?

[duncan macgregor]

[I appreciate someone might think "Capital Management" is bollocks but this company's gearing ratio would have been just fine if it's long term cash flow exceeded dividends.]

Well, may be it would have. However, I was thinking of what the company's gearing would have looked like after it had borrowed large amounts from the the bank, as Macdunk suggested, to finance the Victorian purchases.

hiawatha When you borrow money to buy a new business the new business is supposed to show enough profit, and a bit more to cover that cost. If not then you dont do it. When you own a business property that increases in value by over 10% per year giving you free rental for a cost of on going maintanance its cheaper to borrow against it than sell and lease back.
Its also a folly to sell then lease back then spend one million dollars a store doing them up. The deals were done by total business incompetants, who obviously were out of their depth better employed boiling the chook out the back. Anyone that argues against that has never been in business with no practical knowledge of business reality. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

MEANWHILE good to see hiawatha, Halebop, lizard & new boy Dr Who back talking as usual in circles about the past of RBD its what going to happen from now on which is the concern and including DIVIDENS..

[duncan macgregor]

MEANWHILE good to see hiawatha, Halebop, lizard & new boy Dr Who back talking as usual in circles about the past of RBD its what going to happen from now on which is the concern and including DIVIDENS.. That BRICKS is the one statement that you have made that makes sense well done. The only problem is have they still got the decision makers that have run the company down to this low level still making decisions. If the answer is yes then dont hold your breath. The company was in a good position before it sold its property, and headed for Australia. A good little company with a roof over its head, is better than a bad big company with no material assets.
Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

Unlike you, Macdunk, we don't all have crystal balls. One can't always know in advance whether a new business is going to make sufficient profits to cover interest, but that doesn't mean it's not worthwhile taking a risk. Similarly, property doesn't always increase by 10% pa. It has been known to drop in value.
At any rate, it's still prudent to maintain a reasonble ratio between equity and debt for purposes of risk management. Also, while a company needs a roof over it's head, it's by no means certain that it has to own rather than lease that roof. Owning may simply be tying up capital unnecessarily. As for the $800k per outlet they are spending on upgrades, this doesn't seem a lot given that the upgrades are likely to last 10-20 years.
hiawatha You dont require a crystal ball to recognise stupidity when you see it. It is much cheaper to borrow money on property than it is to borrow it any other way. Everything runs in cycles property included but to sell property to lease back then spend a fortune doing it up is the height of utter stupidity. I argued this point with SNOOPY at the time. Anyone that is so blinded to reality that they think that was a good decision before or after the event is a sitting duck in the business community. To own the roof over your head is an insurance policy if the market turns against you. RBD are in the position of the market that has turned against them. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

[You dont require a crystal ball to recognise stupidity when you see it.]

Agreed. Nor ignorance either for that matter.
hiawatha

ENOUGH of the past you both don't know, lets get that bargain RBD and look NORTH..

[JMKC]

BRICKS, you keep calling RBD a bargain. Can you please explain to me exactly why you think the stock is cheap? I'm not necessarily saying it's not but I am interested to know your thoughts...it isn't cheap on an NTA basis, and isn't glaringly cheap on a P/E basis but maybe I am missing something.

By the way I do agree with you on SCY.

[BRICKS]

BRICKS, you keep calling RBD a bargain. Can you please explain to me exactly why you think the stock is cheap? I'm not necessarily saying it's not but I am interested to know your thoughts...it isn't cheap on an NTA basis, and isn't glaringly cheap on a P/E basis but maybe I am missing something.

By the way I do agree with you on SCY.


THERE is enough talk on this thread to last a life time so just do your BEST..

Regards..

[JMKC]

Yeah, I'm certainly not saying it's a raging sell, I just like to know why people call stocks a bargain. The stock is basically ex-growth, but offers an excellent yield and is not expensive on an earnings basis, but for an ex-growth stock it's not exactly cheap either. So then you look at the asset base, and that isn't that attractive, nor is the stock priced cheaply relative to net tangible assets.

It SEEMS you cant ask PERTINENT questions without someone BRUSHING you off with ill-PLACED capitals.

[BRICKS]

WELL put hiawatha and covers most about RBD, and JMKC you seem to be the type of person that would never be happy with any answer given and would love to talk on & on,
so where does it leave the rest of us either your a buyer or a talker but the people on this site really have NO influence any stock and nothing to do with the turnover of the NZX..

[keepitsimple]

[I appreciate someone might think "Capital Management" is bollocks but this company's gearing ratio would have been just fine if it's long term cash flow exceeded dividends.]

Well, may be it would have. However, I was thinking of what the company's gearing would have looked like after it had borrowed large amounts from the the bank, as Macdunk suggested, to finance the Victorian purchases.

hiawatha

Most likely banks wouldent lend on Victorian purchases seeing them as a poor risk.However looking to the future perhaps adding more profitable food brands to the mix may help, it is a brands businuss as others have pointed out.

[JMKC]

WELL put hiawatha and covers most about RBD, and JMKC you seem to be the type of person that would never be happy with any answer given and would love to talk on & on,
so where does it leave the rest of us either your a buyer or a talker but the people on this site really have NO influence any stock and nothing to do with the turnover of the NZX..

you haven't given me any answer, that's the problem. But just forget about it. If you can't justify your stock ideas I can deal with it...

[duncan macgregor]

Most likely banks wouldent lend on Victorian purchases seeing them as a poor risk.However looking to the future perhaps adding more profitable food brands to the mix may help, it is a brands businuss as others have pointed out. You seem to have missed the point completely. RBD could have borrowed money from the bank using their property as security at a much cheaper rate than any other means. They sold the property to lease back which is much more costly in the end which was a great mistake. They then spent millions renovating those properties which only highlighted the first mistake. If i want to borrow money for any reason at all i borrow it from the bank using property as security. The bank couldnt care less what the reason is for me borrowing. When you see glaring blunders like that unless management gets changed RBD remains a high risk company. Macdunk

[BRICKS]

you haven't given me any answer, that's the problem. But just forget about it. If you can't justify your stock ideas I can deal with it...


AND now never will, from experience have you type of talkers rattle on about nothing and where never a buyer of stock just like Mc duck who rattles on about the past with nothing to do about today's market and tells us he is an off shore "Full time trader" BOLLICKS..

[keepitsimple]

You seem to have missed the point completely. RBD could have borrowed money from the bank using their property as security at a much cheaper rate than any other means. They sold the property to lease back which is much more costly in the end which was a great mistake. They then spent millions renovating those properties which only highlighted the first mistake. If i want to borrow money for any reason at all i borrow it from the bank using property as security. The bank couldnt care less what the reason is for me borrowing. When you see glaring blunders like that unless management gets changed RBD remains a high risk company. Macdunk

No i havent missed any points your opinion mirrers mine and yes banks do not care what they lend money on but they do care about getting there money back.

[BRICKS]

No i havent missed any points your opinion mirrers mine and yes banks do not care what they lend money on but they do care about getting there money back.


JUST "keepitsimple" and drop the past look at today BIZ...

[JMKC]

BRICKS, wtf are you talking about?

a) You have not offered 1 reason as to why you think RBD as cheap, and simply get defensive when anyone asks you a question

b) past business decisions, especially re capital mgmt/gearing/capex can have effects LONG into the future.

It's all very well saying ignore anything that doesn't help your story, but unfortunately you are offering very little in the way of value add.

[BRICKS]

BRICKS, wtf are you talking about?

a) You have not offered 1 reason as to why you think RBD as cheap, and simply get defensive when anyone asks you a question

b) past business decisions, especially re capital mgmt/gearing/capex can have effects LONG into the future.

It's all very well saying ignore anything that doesn't help your story, but unfortunately you are offering very little in the way of value add.


THANK goodness yer not paying me for this vital INFORMATION as I would never get PAID..

[JMKC]

nor should you.

[BRICKS]

nor should you.

I was RIGHT..

[BRICKS]

BRICKS has been having a lovely time sniping away at the BARGAIN stock RBD of late but turnover is low KIWI`s don't want to lose there money and are holding on in hope of a TAKER OVER which could happen but its an income STOCK.. that's best and BRICKS has to soon return to OZ 4 FEB holiday almost over..

[Dr_Who]

BRICKS, you are a real character. Fancy you winding up poor old JMKC. He took the bait.. LOL Classic!

[duncan macgregor]

BRICKS has been having a lovely time sniping away at the BARGAIN stock RBD of late but turnover is low KIWI`s don't want to lose there money and are holding on in hope of a TAKER OVER which could happen but its an income STOCK.. that's best and BRICKS has to soon return to OZ 4 FEB holiday almost over..
Hope you had a good holiday Bricks but i think a take over is your only hope of making money with RBD. A dividend yeild of 7.23 in a share that has gone down in share value 24.54% in twelve months is not to good a look. I would say if they owned their premises and got their act into gear you might be right. However all they own is a name plus a few kitchen utensils which hardly makes it a bargain or a safe haven for anyones money especially looking at past performances. macdunk

[BRICKS]

Hope you had a good holiday Bricks but i think a take over is your only hope of making money with RBD. A dividend yeild of 7.23 in a share that has gone down in share value 24.54% in twelve months is not to good a look. I would say if they owned their premises and got their act into gear you might be right. However all they own is a name plus a few kitchen utensils which hardly makes it a bargain or a safe haven for anyones money especially looking at past performances. macdunk

YOU have told me many times but BRICKS holding is not a loser its the current price and don't give a DAM about the PAST and the div`s are GOOD..