USD.JPY [Archive] - Page 2 - Sharetrader Forum

peat

23-06-2008, 08:58 PM

I got back from QLD on the weekend (and its rained ever since)
I'm still on holiday tho so have more time to day trade.
Todays trade on USD/JPY was a gartley on the 15min

it was trending down for some time but the risk was minimal after this close to perfect bullish gartley presented itself.

I was a little bit late in at 107.28 so decided to go with first target of 107.5 being the A point and expected some resistance there which would present an opportunity to re enter cheaper. green dot taken out +22

then after I got back from shopping re-entered for the next attempt and took profit at just below the 1.6 fib level of XA. +37
did lose seventeen pips on another trade today tho.gotta tell the whole story eh ;+)

dumbass

16-07-2008, 01:46 PM

looking for another short entry

will monitor action on retracement looking closely around 105 30 to 105 50 area

arco

13-08-2008, 03:44 PM

Potential Gartley setting up.

I think we could see a further wave higher shortly into the grey box and then there may be a good chance of a sizable fall based on Gartley target zones.

Watching from the wings.

arco

arco

14-08-2008, 09:51 AM

Heres the lower time-frame chart showing the small green butterfly from the chart in post #254
- notice the small potential Gartley forming at the red box

GTA - arco

arco

15-08-2008, 04:01 PM

13/8. I think we could see a further wave higher shortly into the grey box
Still running quite nicely @ +150 pips currently since chart post #254 and there may still be a good many more pips to go before we see the completion of the green Gartley morphing into the red BF

GTA -arco

arco

15-08-2008, 09:06 PM

_______________

Couldn't resist scalping a few more, gotta feeling the action might try to punch through the old resistance. Target up to 50-60 pips ish

Currently +40

miner

18-08-2008, 11:56 AM

Hi Arco was long on this Friday but got stopped on the dip before the run and wasn't watching to jump on the dip,anyway watching now to see if ress at 110.30ish becomes supp and we carry on north.

Cheers
Miner

arco

18-08-2008, 01:47 PM

Hi Miner

I exited both my positions before closing up on Friday evening....looked like it was struggling..........so decided to play it safe.

Will be reviewing the situation ASAP

rgds - arco

miner

18-08-2008, 02:08 PM

Ok,have gone long at 110.080 and 162.096 on it's running mate eur/jpy,VERY tight stops tho,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

miner

18-08-2008, 04:20 PM

Got stopped on usd/jpy (made a couple of pips) still long eur/usd and eur/jpy(they running mates again),My daily's change at 4pm our time and both were green so they may keep going tonight,worth a look anyway,stops still tight for now though.

Cheers
Miner

arco

19-08-2008, 04:56 PM

.

Possibly a small bullish Gartley could form on/close by the up-trending wedge lower line........... (somewhere in the region of the red box perhaps).

No position yet - watching from the wings for a reversal signal.

.

miner

19-08-2008, 06:14 PM

Long at 109.898,stop at 110.00 if gets thru the 15min U now may keep going,yesterdays trades stoped in the money,was long eur/jpy at same time as this but BE stop hit.

Cheers
Miner

miner

19-08-2008, 06:19 PM

Going same way as usd/chf which is testing the daily high,so it's worth a look also.

Cheers
Miner

arco

20-08-2008, 04:32 PM

Referring to post #262

The action now appears to be trying to reverse out of the red box, just above the UT line.

At the Gartleys further extreme we could be targeting 111.30-111.60, but lets think more about that when we see how it copes with the green boxed area overhead.

GTA - arco

arco

21-08-2008, 01:08 PM

Update

There was a nice move to the green box for circa 35 pips, and
now the action has retraced back into the red box giving another
BF configuration. Another opportunity.

.

arco

21-08-2008, 05:41 PM

.

No confirmed Butterfly reversal signal on this one yet.............in fact a large black has just printed on the hourly down to the lower BF 161.8 target reversal zone. With 20 minutes to go, lets see if this was just a stop hunting exercise before the reversal signals appear.

Also check out the longer term picture from 12/8....potential Gartley

Still waiting in the wings.

arco

.

Bilo

21-08-2008, 08:23 PM

arco

21-08-2008, 08:30 PM

Hello Bilo

I'm not following Aud.Jpy at the moment but wish you good luck with the trade.

rgds - arco

arco

22-08-2008, 08:47 AM

Bilo

22-08-2008, 11:25 AM

.

Usd.Jpy is still under the influence of the Red BF on the far left, so we probably have to wait until the Blue BF completes to see where we go next.
Looks like an ABC correction.

Bilo

Did you get stopped out on your Aud.Jpy trade?

rgds - arco

Hi Arco I withdrew between 94.50 and 94.30. It is sometimes a pity to miss the exciting stuff when you're not watching.. a better result than some of my recent trades the AUD is unpredictable - you seem to be reading the crosses that you watch well. Good luck and I haven't forgotten about the Stella.

arco

23-08-2008, 09:03 AM

Updating Post $270

The Blue Butterfly worked out just perfectly.

After a low of 108.13 the action headed north as expected for a windfall 200 pips.

AMR

25-08-2008, 02:40 PM

Does anyone spot a possible H&S pattern forming in the 4 hour charts? Right Shoulder forming currently.

arco

25-08-2008, 04:16 PM

AMR

H&S........Hard to tell until the neck line forms.

Many possibilities - consider also a Broadening Top - again we have to wait for the pattern to complete.

http://chart-patterns.netfirms.com/pic/rev/broadtop2.png

rgds

arco

peat

31-08-2008, 10:33 PM

Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 03:52:13 GMT
USDJPY
Last Price: 108.41
Support: 108.15, 108.00, 107.40, 106.40
Resistance: 109.00, 109.50, 110.25, 110.67

Under review due to the extend of the rise since March, but as the updated count shows there is still the potential for another leg down.

Confidence is low, however. The expanding nature of the proposed diagonal is troubling. This is more a potential count rather than "the" count

peat

31-08-2008, 10:36 PM

Update For: August 8
PoUpdate For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:59:43 GMT
USDJPY
Last Price: 108.41
Support: 108.15, 108.00, 107.40, 106.40
Resistance: 109.00, 109.50, 110.25, 110.67

The extent of the recent recovery is worrisome, but the lack of an impulsive advance and the potential for a completed bearish triangle dating from the mid-1990s keeps our focus to the downside.

The break below 101.27-69 bolsters the bearish count. There is no evidence the decline is complete and the ultimate objective is a test of 79.92.

Notice, an alternate count has been added

dumbass

12-09-2008, 10:20 AM

looking like usd jpy ready for a short

some daily stuff suggestive of a decline.

channel on hourly with a evening star printing

short from 107 target 104 sl 107 80

dumbass

15-09-2008, 10:37 AM

feeling the pain on this one stopped out on friday night , to see a 2 big ones down.

calm , deep breath in , deep breath out , relax and then shout ****

arco

15-09-2008, 12:14 PM

.

I had a potential long penciled in for Friday PM at 107.36.

Fortunately I didn't take it because I was playing the EY and the Aussie.
Incredibly I closed all positions off on Friday evening...........perhaps it was
a divine intervention :)

dumbass

15-09-2008, 03:58 PM

i guess looking ahead , it seems this will well and truly dent dollar recovery

and huge risk aversion should bode well for jpy

so could it be that usd jpy will meltdown

big move so far with Tokoyo closed, interesting to see what happens when europe opens.

peat

19-11-2008, 04:43 PM

last night I was noticing a triangle forming visible on the 1 hr and the 3hr. Then it seemed to break out on the downside just a little , but overnite went up and then today at lunchtime seemed to come back almost back into the zone.
Anyone got any thoughts? If I'd played it it would have tricked me twice.

I seem to recall that a triangle should break out 2/3 of the way through whereas this one was forming the perfect vertice and is less reliable because of that ??? Is that correct

arco

19-11-2008, 08:50 PM

AMR

19-11-2008, 09:19 PM

Nicely done especially with a scary pair like this. Do you use mechanical exits?

arco

19-11-2008, 09:28 PM

AMR

Yes, - Buy Stop entry with TP.....

rgds - arco

dumbass

31-05-2009, 09:30 AM

could be some short pips here

head and shoulders tested neckline , with bearish engulfing candle
wave 3 possible

http://iforce.co.nz/i/r0txjkfk.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

arco

31-05-2009, 04:18 PM

Hi DB

Looking at the Ichimoku chart it suggests we might see a bounce off the Kumo - also there were long tails on the last 2 hourly blacks, which to me shows some bullish support.

I had a short trade signalled on Friday which is already closed. Now I would like to see the Ichi break on the 4h to be more confident of an immediate continuation.

All will soon be revealed.

rgds - arco

dumbass

31-05-2009, 07:32 PM

hi arco, got a medium time frame on this one.
if counts correct could be in a third wave of a third which could run quick into 80s
Risk clearly defined at 97.23 would add if it takes out wave 1 bottom
bounce very possible but risk should hold.
http://iforce.co.nz/i/oepmd1sp.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

dumbass

01-06-2009, 09:22 AM

had a good look this morning arco and i feel caution is warranted
closed out on the spike lower this morning for 150pips at 95 and will review action.
thanks

miner

01-06-2009, 06:10 PM

If this works here are the lines I had for this move on friday.

Cheers
Miner

miner

01-06-2009, 06:28 PM

15 min is a good one to trade on.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

01-06-2009, 08:01 PM

can you explain your lines miner

miner

01-06-2009, 08:23 PM

Hi DB will give it a go,lines get set from the top or bottom of one candle through the top,bottom of NEXT,so hourly the 99.69 line is the resistance,the turn is the long trend line,the 94.62 line is too steep so you knew the daily would go the other side of it,96.85,also the 99.69 line was resistance,hence looking short.

See the 96.85 was steep so we went other side of it for a long(my daily is 4pm our time),now coming back to test to see if it will be supp,keep in mind that ALL 4 charts work together,no doubt that sounded like French,will post another set for this arvo's long and short,think ress and supp and look at the same time-price on each of the four charts.

Cheers
miner

miner

01-06-2009, 08:43 PM

All charts work together,15min rules, 5min first signal hourly and daily bigger targets,they usually play to the first two candle lines,the one's after more exits entry's,very hard to explain here,but let me know if you get the idea ?.

There are main lines then intermediate that get taken off after they play out,and they make U trades.

If trend in place but lines to steep you know other way or sideways till they hit the line again then off they go again,so if you miss the boat wait for it to hit the line again.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

01-06-2009, 10:06 PM

hey miner i really want to understand your system coz it sounds like a good scalper

why not use the 93.80 why the 94.60 on the daily is it because its support from trend line ?

whats the long trendline plotted from?

im just going to try and nut out daily first

miner

01-06-2009, 10:14 PM

It's a great scalper but also longer system,the 15min turned bang on my line,looking messy sideways for now,will post it with just the one line then a bigger daily to see if that helps,940.60 as drew it there days ago,but the other 3 charts showed the turn better remember daily is the BIG picture allot happens in the other 3 charts per daily.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

01-06-2009, 10:17 PM

so do you look at daily first or do those line come in from other time frames

this is how i would draw your lines , unfortunately my daily candle is so different from the data supplier.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/2o5rhkln.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

miner

01-06-2009, 10:49 PM

Sorry took a while f*cking computers,look at the 95.36 line.

Cheers
Miner

miner

01-06-2009, 11:16 PM

Ok looking at that line it's not the most accurate,I would have been using the other 3 charts as well,the 95.58 is a good example though,keep in mind ALL 4 charts work together to tell you the same thing just in different time frames.

Cheers
Miner

miner

01-06-2009, 11:29 PM

Ok remember how I said the daily was too steep so would go long96.85,then come back to test it to see if now supp,so 94.66 hourly north,then 95.35 turn,94.43 test,turn and back to my 96.47 all hourly.

On 15min it's 94.66 then 95.36,then 94.44,and my 5min to small to show bugger,but hope you get the idea as in they ALL work together,the 5min just being your best entry candle then bigger picture as you go up in the time frames.

For the system to work you need to set up charts like this as no 1 chart gives the trade.

Bored you all to death now so bed time.

If the hourly gets through my 96.47 line then looking long.

Cheers
Miner

miner

01-06-2009, 11:33 PM

oop's try these charts for the last post.

Cheers
Miner

miner

02-06-2009, 09:39 AM

Morning DB well went long at midnight when it came back to test my 94.43 line which also crossed my 94.53 line at that point,so long at 94.833 and up 173 pips,great when you wake up to money,target was my 97.21 line but through that for now so tight stop see how we go,it's mate EUR/JPY doing the same.

Cheers
Miner

dumbass

02-06-2009, 10:20 AM

im going to sit down today and study your system and also check out the 'miner u thread'
nice going miner and thanks for your time.

miner

02-06-2009, 10:28 AM

No prob DB glad to help,where I went long was also what I call a "V" cross as in two of my lines made a V long again at 96.613 but VERY tight stops on both,if it closes above my 99.69 line daily it may come back to test it then long again,looks like my stops may get hit,cant hedge anymore unless go through the UK bugger so can only play long while these are open.

Cheers
Miner

arco

02-06-2009, 10:32 AM

dumbass

03-06-2009, 07:15 PM

maybe a move into butterfly and gartley zone ?

http://iforce.co.nz/i/5eor10vv.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

arco

03-06-2009, 08:20 PM

Daily is stuck under and testing Kumo, so would need to see a break of that before the pattern could start to print.

.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/wvcthznf.gif

dumbass

03-06-2009, 08:57 PM

lovely www.iforce.co.nz production there arco

arco

03-06-2009, 09:04 PM

lovely www.iforce.co.nz (http://www.iforce.co.nz) production there arco

Watch for the empty space on July 2nd

:D

arco

04-06-2009, 05:54 PM

This is the H1 chart, and the higher orange line is just above the Kumo (resistance) on the daily.

Chikou span is out of the woods, and there are higher lows showing, so might be a move on the cards....one to watch.

.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/tfi4pvtd.gif

arco

04-06-2009, 06:05 PM

Here is the daily with the same orange lines for perspective.

Chikou span below plot (bearish), but could rise to test the Kumo which has turned red (bearish). Kijun flat-lining.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/ueumfwt2.gif

dumbass

10-06-2009, 08:44 PM

looks like price has reversed and this double pattern is a go !

http://iforce.co.nz/i/5eor10vv.jpg[/img] (http://www.iforce.co.nz/)

peat

13-06-2009, 12:52 AM

maybe sell it now DA. its struggled at 98.30 and the spike to 98.42 was a tiny little butterfly which has confirmed now. price now 98.20 stop 98.55

arco

13-06-2009, 11:06 AM

maybe sell it now DA. its struggled at 98.30 and the spike to 98.42 was a tiny little butterfly which has confirmed now. price now 98.20 stop 98.55

I just wonder if it can still head higher to test the underside of that old UT line.....that would print a BF (and perhaps a 200+ pip fall)

.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/5e168c91d4.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

peat

12-08-2009, 10:10 AM

I'm thinking it might go to 99 from here... looking for a signal

and yes arco sometimes I think my posts are also a pretty good contrarian signal http://www.biggie.co.nz/interaction/forum/images/smiles/blueembarrassed.gif

arco

13-08-2009, 09:24 AM

Hi Peat

Could be a move to 99.80-100-80 area based on a bullish BF from daily 'x' 22/5, and Ichimoku signals look good on the daily

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/2a868b0b5b.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

peat

13-08-2009, 09:46 AM

yes that butterfly i drew started on 22nd May.
I built a position last night once it came back over the 95.60 level
the problem with butterfly trades is that according to the theory the stops are very far away in this case below 92 and thats too much. difficult to know how much to risk.

arco

13-08-2009, 10:29 AM

HI Peat

Just below 95.75 spike low after the FOMC announcement might provide a low risk SL. Support by Kumo on 15m,30m,1hr.

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/d9ec553f84.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

arco

16-09-2009, 10:33 PM

Possible turnaround zone below in grey - no signal as yet from Ichi

http://i30.tinypic.com/fnvmrp.gif

CFO

16-09-2009, 11:28 PM

arco, what is your typical trade horizon? been following your posts for a while, you've got some serious technical firepower there...

arco

17-09-2009, 09:18 AM

arco, what is your typical trade horizon? been following your posts for a while, you've got some serious technical firepower there...

I'd really like to be a long term trader and sit with a trailing stop until it gets hit months down the track. But even after all these years of trading I still find it hard to hang on through the ups and downs. I tend to jump on and off as the move progresses. which suits my nature better. Others I know are happy sit on their hands and collect a nail biting 1000+ pips at the end of the run. Each to their own I guess.

arco

peat

17-09-2009, 02:36 PM

inverse head and shoulders on the 15 min?

arco

17-09-2009, 02:50 PM

Hi Peat

Almost 2 H&S (one slanting).

The 30m Ichi gave a 25-40 pip run north over the last 4 hrs. H1 is possibly just breaking through the plot.

http://i31.tinypic.com/20071wx.gif

arco

26-09-2009, 11:03 AM

Bearish rejection off H4 Kumo, with TS/KS crossover in Kumo.
PA into the Harmonic white/grey boxes.

http://i34.tinypic.com/2mcj8dh.gif

arco

28-09-2009, 02:20 PM

Bearish rejection off H4 Kumo, with TS/KS crossover in Kumo.
PA into the Harmonic white/grey boxes.

http://i34.tinypic.com/2mcj8dh.gif

.

Closed this one now +109

.

arco

14-10-2009, 07:11 PM

I’m looking at USD.JPY chart now for a potential reversal in the blue box zone. Chikou has broken through on the H4 chart and is currently testing the plot. No position as yet

http://i38.tinypic.com/n2z8kw.gif

peat

14-10-2009, 08:45 PM

Arco I had this very moment before seeing your comment drawn this,
which has activated, but since then gone below the S/R line again and found some support at th 78% retracment of this advance.
I've started position building.

arco

15-10-2009, 02:18 PM

.
I opened and closed a position before closing up last night, but re-entered this morning. I've taken +56 pips on part.

http://i36.tinypic.com/2cnbhxg.gif

arco

15-10-2009, 10:54 PM

Taken more off at +100

http://i36.tinypic.com/4qn686.jpg

peat

15-10-2009, 10:56 PM

yep I'm out I only got 92

arco

16-10-2009, 09:39 AM

Taken some more off at +150.....could be running out of steam soon

http://i35.tinypic.com/331eiar.gif

amp

16-10-2009, 07:37 PM

wow arco you are awesome! come november 9th (end of exams), im going to be watching you like a hawk lol i lost over $1000 on cmc when i started which i need to recover... thats alot for a student.

miner

04-11-2009, 08:28 PM

Evening Arco I see on your blog your looking for a long on this one,two other pairs that run the same way are looking long also,any update thoughts on this one ?.

Cheers
Miner

arco

04-11-2009, 08:58 PM

Evening Miner :)

Trust all is well with you.

Maybe a medium/longer term signal - still waiting to see if there could ba a confirmed reversal in the lower grey box area. No trade until that confirms.

arco

http://i35.tinypic.com/2m2i1dg.gif

miner

04-11-2009, 09:06 PM

Yep all good with a few interesting things in the pot,long at the mo but with a super tight stop so either going to do it or not on this trade,eur/jpy and gbp/jpy broken my hourly trendline before this one did so you never know as this one lags behind.

Cheers
Miner

peat

13-11-2009, 02:05 PM

got into a trade long with USD/JPY last night as well... currently up 60 - in the pic you can see I had a stop in place at the red line but earlier today I also added the trailing stop showing as the orange line
the basis for this trade was the impulsive move up and a corrective pattern following that - quite possible should have waited longer for it to break the channel ... but its turning out ok.

dumbass

10-12-2009, 03:49 PM

a possibility bottom in usdjpy, rallied strongly from 85 zone and lower trendline.
retracement underway which should provide a long entry for a longer term trade.

http://iforce.co.nz/i/shjjjzr3.jpg (http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=shjjjzr3.jpg)

arco

10-12-2009, 04:22 PM

Hi DB

Yes, I've been keeping a watch on this one (talked about it on the blog a few weeks back).

Looking quite nice for a reversal at some point soon and a target 93-94 once it confirms the turn

rgds - arco

http://i50.tinypic.com/fumlp1.gif

arco

31-12-2009, 01:32 PM

Early Warning given on the blog - target hit overnight circa 500 pips

Free Ichicmoku video if you are a blog member on 5th Jan

http://i45.tinypic.com/30myhdz.jpg

http://i48.tinypic.com/2ca9p5.gif