View Full Version : USD.JPY
As a point of interest, my system gave its
first signal 11/3 on this pair for a short entry at 110.77.
2nd and 3rd system confirmation signals were triggered on 12/3.
Current price is around 107.13 or around 360 pips.
Weekend close was at 106.70 for a current
gain of 407 pips. Watching carefully now as
the current action is in a possible reversal area.
Mondays close was at 106.70 for a current
gain of 522 pips.
Watching carefully now as the current action
looks close to a possible reversal, and today
maybe the day to take the profit
Hanging on as still falling.
Pips at close 653.
Trailing stop.
As mentioned 30/3 -
"Watching carefully now as the current action
looks close to a possible reversal"
Stop hit on 2/4 at 104.49 for around 628 pips on 50%.
Total +728 overall.
Trendline break but "mind the gap"
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/050704X.gif
Day trading using EW techniques on 5 min chart.
Here's one trade I completed yesterday.
1. Wait for the completion of a 5 wave impulse, and 3 wave correction.
2. Buy on positive break of ABC correction down-trend line, making it possible to take 15-20 points in 25 minutes if prefered. Alternatively, let the trade run with a limit set for say 70+/- pips. Stop was placed just below the low of the double bottom.
Trade closed for 70 pips profit / US$617.72
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/Close%20tradeX.gif
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/5%20min.gif
The gap as mentioned caused a slight hiccup but the
overnight action has bridged that gap and JPY may now
move higher and head initially into the 115/117 target zone.
Chart update
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/051304j.gif
Long 114.20
USD.JPY is struggling to keep it's head up. I thought there may be a few more pips potential after the 3 methods pattern but it appears to stalled right at the marked target zone (5?).
Just above the action there is the old downtrend line (red) and previous broken support line around 115.83 adding more resistance.
Reversal imminent IMO.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/051804.gif
Short again at 110.90 after the long legged Doji against resistance.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06032004.gif
Price is now hovering around the question mark
in the previous post and Medium/Long term holders
are now up around 530 pips on this one so far with
more to come IMO.
(Each pip is worth around US$8 per number
of contracts).
e.g. 5 contracts US$21,200
trendy
17-11-2004, 02:19 PM
ARCO where are you getting the FOREX rates for your software from and are using Metastock? Is it end of day data?
Trendy
Metastock with EOD Spot rates via local NZ
supplier who receive their info via Reuters.
Arco
quote:Price is now hovering around the question mark
in the previous post and Medium/Long term holders
are now up around 530 pips on this one so far with
more to come IMO.
Big fall overnight bringing total pip profit now
to around 667 currently for Med/Long term punters.
Possibile support ahead circa 130.50, so I am expecting
some hesitation around that area.
JPY has continued to perform well, adding another
112 pips to make around 779 total. I still expect
there could be some hesitation in this area, so
tight stops now to protect profit.
Looks like a possible bullish Gartley in the making,
so JPY.USD may be lining up here for a bit of a run north.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/030105_ww_target_2.gif
+ 76 pips at close on the first fade entry, but JPY
has not spiked any lower to allow adding fades.
Minor resistance 10468.
JPY has reached 10738 in the last few hours
(original target on 1st March was 10781).
Max profit so far circa 370 pips.
Tight trailing stop as old DT line is near this point.
JPY has hit and passed the medium term target I gave
on March 1st. The current profit is a max of circa 475 pips,
with the stop still trailing behind protecting profits.......
...............and the sun is shining brightly [8D]
GTA.
Xerof
04-05-2005, 02:09 PM
Just bought 1 unit of USD/JPY at 104.75 S/L 104.41
Xerof
stopped at 104.41:(
Good Afternoon Xerof
Yes, I mentioned JPY on TT yesterday
JPY printed an Harami Cross, and I have a possible short term Gartley showing. So for the time being we may see a move
higher......
104.69 looks good for possible support area IMO.
No position currently.
arco
4/5
quote:JPY printed an Harami Cross, and I
have a possible short term Gartley showing.
So for the time being we may see a move higher..
Reversed north nicely as anticipated giving
punters around 100 pips in their pocket presently.
Possible some turbulent weather can be expected around 10625
arco
Ok I'm kicking myself........
Posted the trade set-up but didn't take it myself [B)]
Hope someone else jumped on board for circa 300 pips
JPY is now at various resistance points
and Gartley targets, and perhaps creating
shoulder number 2.
arco
Got 123 pips out of it arco
in to late(again)
slam
Slam
I don't think you should consider that as 'too late'.
You made a decision to get on board a north bound train,
- no problem with that.
Punters are very lucky anytime to get the absolute
bottom and top, and taking 123 pips from a trend
is a very good trade.
One of those a week and you will be laughing all
the way to the bank. :D
arco
Xerof
17-05-2005, 04:13 PM
Arco, slam,
Slam, you leaped on the caboose as it left the station, I jumped on the rails in front of the engine and got run over:D:D
quote: Just bought 1 unit of USD/JPY at 104.75 S/L 104.41 - stopped at 104.41
Xerof
Xerof
caboose was half way ot timbucktoo before I got it.
still a trade though
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
17-05-2005, 04:21 PM
So Arco, I get the feeling you're not convinced we have a breakout by the USD, - like me, I reckon you've been looking at GWD's dollar index chart over on TT, and his EUR chart too? - sobering thoughts, and probably a good time to watch and wait, which I am doing today and probably tomorrow. If the index fails, the move could be another explosive one in the opposite direction.
I gather you're looking for levels to sell USD/JPY - I sold small at 107.70 yesterday, squared at 107.08 o/n. Also bought Eur at 1.2590, but chickened out at 1.26285. Small beers to keep the till ringing...
Not sure from here - waiting, waiting
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Have been out all morning and still perusing EOD charts.
Not checked GWD's handiwork as yet, but there are so many
Butterflies on my charts that look almost complete I have
some niggling doubts. Hence my only position is NZD +14
Watching and waiting with my long handled net. ;)
arco
took a long here 107,29
to some extent it made up for my loss on Eur/JPY. so dumped the loser and hold the winner. +33 as of now.
Watch circa 10784 - it may be hard to penitrate IMO.
No current position - I need to prune back somewhere. [:o)]
had my stop at 107.40 to make sure this didnt go bad... so yeh just got hit - only 11+
A Bearish Engulfing pattern has appeared on
the old DT line taking overnight action back just
below the Gann resistance @ 10784 that I mentioned
a few days ago.
miner
25-05-2005, 09:44 AM
Morning Arco,still think short on this one?,would go with your long on eur/usd,ta.
Cheers
Miner
Morning Miner
Nothing has changed my mind presently although
the Fx market lacks 'direction' at the moment.
As I mentioned in a another thread I believe EUR needs to
correct higher, therefore the reverse should be the case for JPY.
arco
Miner
You may be interested in these fundamental thoughts
from Financial Express
..........."If there is no (negative) surprise in the FOMC minutes and the US economic data due out this week confirm the strength of the economy, the dollar will be bought back above 108 yen," said Daisuke Uno, a market analyst at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp...................
http://www.financialexpress-bd.com/index3.asp?cnd=5/25/2005§ion_id=3&newsid=141&spcl=no
miner
25-05-2005, 12:34 PM
Thanks arco.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-05-2005, 07:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco
A Bearish Engulfing pattern has appeared on
the old DT line taking overnight action back just
below the Gann resistance @ 10784 that I mentioned
a few days ago.
10784 may now be supp arco?,go with eur/usd through supp and usd/chf on supp now,so strong USD?.
Cheers
Miner
Miner
Always a diffcult point in the action.
Basically we are trying to pick the top using TA
techniques instead of jumping on to a confirmed trend
and missing 30%+/- of the move. When it works, its
fantastic and we can enjoy the extra cream.
However it can be a dangerous game requiring nerves of
steel and is not suitable for people with a history
of loose bowel movements :D
See Chit Chat thread re USD bull/bear possibilities.
PS.
I think you mean resistance (not support).
arco
miner
27-05-2005, 09:31 AM
Ta Arco might have been to early in the morning for me[|)],was thinking 10784 was ress when below, it is now above so it may become supp?,or still to early for me:D.
Cheers
Miner
Miner
This is the basic principle...
When old support converts to new resistance or
when old resistance converts to new support we
get a change of polarity.
The resistance/support has to be broken and tested, as
in this diagram.
http://www.tradersvic.com/candlestick/images/chart1-07-11-03.gif
arco
miner
27-05-2005, 10:04 AM
[8D]Ta.
Yen May Gain Against Dollar, Euro on Signs Japanese Economy Is Recovering
May 31 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may gain versus the dollar and euro today after economic reports showed Japan's jobless rate fell to the lowest in more than six years and household spending rose.
The reports improve prospects for a recovery in the world's second-biggest economy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in April from 4.5 percent the previous month, the lowest since December 1998. Spending by households headed by salaried workers increased 3.6 percent from March, the first gain in three months.
``There are a number of reasons why you'd be supportive of the yen,'' said Greg Gibbs, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. ``The numbers out of Japan have been looking a lot better.''
The yen traded at 107.99 per dollar as of 9:05 a.m. in Tokyo from 108.0 before the reports were released and late yesterday in Asia, according to electronic foreign exchange trading system EBS. It gained to 134.66 versus the euro, from 134.80 earlier.
The currency last week halted a three-week decline after government reports showed retail sales and exports rose more than expected. The yen is down 4.9 percent this year on signs growth in the U.S. is outpacing that of Japan.
The yen yesterday drew support after a government report showed Japan's industrial output gained more than expected in April, after declining the previous two months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
I was a bit early on this for the reversal, but
the action now has moved in the direction I expected.
Closed 10689....expecting some support to come in
circa 10625
Xerof
29-06-2005, 01:32 PM
Fly me to the moon.....humming the rest, but it was an Andy Williams song (for you young bucks out there) Andy who? you're saying - well exactly really:D:D
This one looks like its about to catch an explosive ride north towards 113 - emphasis on looks - in wave(iii) of 3 of C ?
The break of 109.70 looks encouraging.
Do the experts agree with that count (<s>hourly</s>daily chart)
Xerof
Agree Xerof (not that I profess to be an expert)
went long at 109.78 this morn;)
is your C you refer to on a larger chart than a daily?
cant figure that one out, what date did C start?
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
29-06-2005, 02:47 PM
Slam, I meant its in C now, I have B ending at 104.20 on 4/5/05
Xerof
Mentioned on 7/6...
"expecting some support to come in circa 10625"
Reversal off low of 10647, which was pretty close, and that
means circa 350 pips potential profit has already slipped by.
Be prepared in the short/medium term as Major Gann could
be lurking not too far above ready to maul the unwary. [B)]
As far as the wave count goes. I'm no expert, but I
see JPY as being on W5 of 5. (Count started 17/1).
For longer term players it certainly looks to be north-bound.
FLY ME TO THE MOON lyrics are by FRANK SINATRA.
......I guess not alot of people know that [:0]
Xerof
29-06-2005, 04:16 PM
I stand corrected Arco - I should have checked the facts but knew it was one of those ol' crooners.
quote:"Come on Mr Williams - back to the home..."
And yes I can see your longer term count.
Major Gann is fighting on a lot of fronts at the moment - might need to call up the reinforcements? Dollar holding a bit of sway so far this week IMV
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Just spotted this from Daily FX Research Team 28th June 2005
USD/JPY -Japanese Yen remains in a limbo as the pair continues to float above the 109.00 figure, with the latest move by the dollar longs pushing the yen toward the 109.50 mark. A breakout above the 2005 high will most likely see the yen traders retreat above the psychologically important 110.00 handle, with dollar longs aiming at 115.00 as their next big target.. Indicators signal trend reversal, with ADX (DMI) dropping to 26.46. Stochastic is treading below the overbought line on the daily chart at 71.47 with Stochastic on the 4-hour chart also slightly below the overbought line at 76.54, thus providing yen bulls with a chance to mount a counterattack. RSI is neutral at 58.68 on the daily chart, with dealer (4HR) chart also neutral at 57.97. MACD is treading flatly above the zero line on the daily chart, while the MACD on the (4HR) chart is pointing upward above the zero line.
PS. Yes Major Gann is very busy with his boys. [:I]
quote:Originally posted by arco
As far as the wave count goes. I'm no expert, but I
see JPY as being on W5 of 5. (Count started 17/1).
arco
In this instance wave 4 crosses wave 1
so on that count, it can't be a 5
Hi Slam
Normally yes, but occasionally there
can be a 'Leading Diagonal' (just to
confuse the issue [V]).
Diagonal Triangle (Leading) -
A wedge shaped pattern containing
overlap that occurs only in first or
A waves. Subdivides 5-3-5-3-5.
As I say, I'm not an EW expert, however its
always a possibility along with other ideas.
Can you post a chart with you EW count for discussion.
Regards
arco
Slam
Just looking at some EW rules.
Havent had time to evaluate them re
the JPY as yet.
Diagonal Triangle Type 1
Wave Type: Impulsive
Frequency of Occurrence: Infrequent
Rules:
Wave 1 can be any corrective wave except a Triangle
Wave 2 can be any corrective wave
Wave 3 can be any corrective wave except a Triangle
Wave 4 can be any corrective wave
Wave 5 can be any corrective wave
Wave 2 must not more than retrace wave 1
Wave 3 must be longer than wave 2 by price distance
Wave 3 must not be the shortest by price distance when compared with wave 1 and wave 5.
The 5th wave must be at least 38.2% the length of wave 4 by price distance
Moves within two channel lines, one that connects the end points of waves 1 and 3, and the other that connects the end points of waves 2 and 4. In rare cases the price may move outside these points by up to 15% of the price distance covered by the pattern
Waves 2 and 4 must overlap or be within 10% of overlapping in price territory.
Wave 5 is never the longest by price distance when compared with wave 1 and wave 3.
The intersection of the two channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern.
The two channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel. They must slope in the same direction and neither may be horizontal.
Guidelines:
Waves 2 and 4 are both at least a 23.6% retracement of the previous wave. Each point within the wave is considered.
The end points of wave 1 and wave 4 nearly always overlap.
Diagonals nearly always converge. Diverging diagonals are very uncommon.
Waves 2 and 4 should alternate sharp with sideways (Zigzag based pattern with a non-Zigzag based pattern).
Wave 2 is often a sharp correction, while wave 4 is often a sideways correction.
It is typical for wave 5 to poke through the channel line.
Diagonal Triangles are infrequent.
A 5th wave should be at least 61.8% of wave 4 by price distance.
Wave 2 is rarely a Triangle.
It is uncommon for wave 4 or wave 5 to be a Triangle.
Diagonal Triangle Type 2
Wave Type: Impulsive
Frequency of Occurrence: Very Uncommon
Rules:
Wave 1 must be an Impulse
Wave 2 can be any corrective pattern.
Wave 3 must be an Impulse.
Wave 4 can be any corrective pattern.
Wave 5 can be any Impulsive pattern.
Wave 2 must not more than retrace wave 1.
This pattern only occurs in a rising market. (A bear market rally).
Wave 3 must be longer than wave 2 by price distance.
Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave when compared to the price distance of wave 1 and wave 5.
Wave 5 must be at least 38.2% the length of wave 4 by price distance.
The pattern must move within two channel lines drawn from the end points of waves 1 and 3, and from the end points of waves 2 and 4. The maximum movement outside these channel lines is 15% of the price distance covered by the pattern.
Waves 2 and 4 must either share some common price territory or be within 10% of doing so.
Wave 5 is never the longest when compared to wave 1 and wave 3.
The intersection of the two channel lines must be beyond the end of the pattern
The two channel lines must either converge or diverge. They cannot be parallel. They must slope in the same direction and neither may be horizontal
Guidelines:
Generally wave 2 and 4 are both at least 23.6% of the previous wave by price distance. Each point within the wave is considered.
The end points of waves 1 and 4 generally overlap.
Diagonal Triangles nearly always converge. Diverging Diagonal Triangles are very uncommon.
Waves 2 and 4 should alternate sharp with sideways (Zigzag based pattern with a non-Zigzag based pattern).
Wave 2 is most often a sharp correction, while wave 4 is often a sideways correction.
It is typical for wave 5 to poke through the channel line.
Diagonal Triangle Type 2 is a very rare pattern.
Wave 5 should be at least 61% of wave 4 by price distance.
Wave 2 is rarely a Triangle.
It is uncommon for wave 4 or wave 5 to be a Triangle.
More homework :D
arco
[:I][:I][:I]
as you say, more homework
Cheers
Slam
miner
11-07-2005, 01:25 PM
Slow day so Slam see the shooting star that we got on the 5min(also lined up with a few things on the 15min) and eur/jpy gone same way,so confirm each other,now maybe doing a double bottom,so it did the come back to test thing(eur/jpy).
The above for trading,although sometimes it keeps you in.
Just thought as we talked about it so...
Cheers
Miner
miner
12-07-2005, 01:43 PM
Could be a short going by the other 3?.
miner
13-07-2005, 12:48 PM
Got stopped on this short by a pip while power was out,80 odd pips in it, bugger.
zyreon
13-07-2005, 12:54 PM
gutted... though where's your risk management? ;) you should have a back up generator :P
i think my account is just a few 0's away from such extensive procedures... for now.
miner
13-07-2005, 12:58 PM
Chain came of my push bike which was connected to the mains board[:0][B)]:D;)
Xerof
13-07-2005, 01:37 PM
One should always have a spare pushbike Miner - one of the first rules of money management
miner
19-07-2005, 07:07 PM
If when? it gets through this daily high-highs from last week or so could be fun.
Xerof
19-07-2005, 07:25 PM
breaking 11260 is significant IMO - <s>115</s>114 target now over time
Hope you've got the chain back on that bike Miner:D:D
miner
19-07-2005, 07:30 PM
Chain back on hehe and just sorted #@$%^$ADSL problems(well hope so),if this keeps going look long usd/chf and short eur/usd,if they play the opp way game,eur/jpy the hard one to pick tonight.
miner
22-07-2005, 12:19 PM
Ok trend on the daily,eur/jpy following
Xerof
12-10-2005, 03:11 PM
Here's another one thats on 'Baywatch';);)
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7326/usdjpy4xd.png
Xerof - keeping abreast of the markets [}:)][}:)]
Xerof
That made me titter, it certainly looks a bit like a double cone. Shades of Madonna
http://www.bbc.co.uk/totp2/ugotthelook/images/madonna.jpg
Yes, I'm watching a monster pair on the weekly which started around May 04. (You should find it easy enough Xerof).
Boy, if/when this one flaps its wings there will be some fall-out, and we are gonna make a bundle of Yen.
arco
Xerof
12-10-2005, 05:27 PM
Arco,
Took me a minute or two to take my focus off Madonnas gartleys, but if I have found the right formation, I have initial target for exiting from Madonna's D cup around 1.1850, being 1.272%. Of course 1.618% is 500 pips higher still, so <s>her</s> the pair will need to be handled with great care - relishing that thought too [}:)][}:)]
Xerof
Xerof
13-10-2005, 12:02 PM
Precise reversal on that 360 min chart formation posted yesterday, for a cupful of pips
Excellent.
I hereby award you the distinguished OOL medal (Order of Lepidoptera) for services to wing watchers worldwide.
I toast Xerof OOL.
Now..... back to basics - how many pips have you got under your wing from that little move [:0]
arco OOL
Xerof
13-10-2005, 12:27 PM
None, still reckon I've got an L plate on these formations Arco, but encouraged by the non monetary results so far. Found another on the CHF, which also turned very neatly, for an even better return.
I have always liked to keep a clean slate for the first week back from a break, to get the market rhythms reinstalled in the brain
Xerof TOOL (Token Order of Lepidoptera) [8D][8D]
TOOL.
I like it. There are others of course, depending on your rank ;)
COOL - for those that have reached the top
FOOL - for those that have reached (and found) the bottom
G(h)OOL - for those that like to pull the wings off their butterflies
MOOL - for those that always need their ass kicking
POOL - mostly awarded to seamen
S(t)OOL - saved especially for the messy boys who can never get their s*hit together.
[:I]
Xerof
13-10-2005, 12:51 PM
and JOOL, for those that profer little gems on a consistent basis[^][^]
Xerof
14-10-2005, 02:06 PM
This one produced a higher incursion into the zone, going to the 1.5% fib quite nicely, and although subsequent action looks likely to follow Arco's big kahuna, (a.k.a. Mount Madonna[:p][:p]) formation on a weekly basis, 70 to 100 pips were available from this shorter time frame, even if one had got in a bit early.
The >115 activity was an exotic barrier stop driven bullsh*t move anyway, first time up
http://img356.imageshack.us/img356/7884/usdjpy0tv.png
Danes view.....
The rising USD against the JPY has been somewhat of a puzzle to
many market participants. In their search for "cause and effect"
solutions they have erroneously coupled the rising Nikkei index
with a bullish JPY outlook By doing that they have missed the
point that many foreign Nikkei-investors have been JPYfunded,
and more importantly that the Japanese overseas
investors have been unwinding their currency hedges anxiously
due to the increased funding costs on the back of the present
hawkish FED stance. A development worth watching as many
Japanese firms/investors are supposed to announce further
reductions of their hedge ratios in the near future. Buying
USD/JPY or sticking with one's bought positions seem to be the
best piece of advice for now
This chart is 3 weeks old, but JPY has now reached my measured targets @ 159.72 (160.01 highest).
Might be a few pips in it (south).
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100605butt_887.gif
The relentless march north continues towards the initial Butterfly target circa 118.45, and cycle week 9/11 looms ahead.
Total run north now circa 1400 pips presently for medium/longer term holders. Oscillator showing some divergence.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110105wbutt_267.gif
GTA - arco
Xerof
01-11-2005, 08:47 PM
From an email I got from London this evening - each time the USD.JPY has gone above/below 115, the move has been at least 10 yen, so 125 appears to be where we are going....
If you have a monthly chart that goes back far enough, the facts are quite compelling.
Off the weekly chart, I have a maximum target of 123.15 (1.618% fib ext from the 101.75 low), so not entirely off the planet
Xerof
We are not a milllion miles from the 118.45 calculated target as mentioned way back.
Therefore I have closed longs and reversed with a smaller short position presently at 118.30
Updated chart here which shows time and price now coming together indicating we have the possibility of a turn in the near future.
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505wbutt_135.gif
Looks like her short tactical was a mistake ...
Danish commentary :
USD/JPY is clearly on the verge of defying gravity. After a
short pause the cross managed to break above the 118.00-50
area, which was considered a tough resistance area, and is
now instead aiming at a rendez-vous with the psychological 120
area. The effect on the JPY from the upcoming Bush visit to Asia
this week is therefore almost back to square one, as market fears
of renewed US-pressure on China to once again revalue their
currency are waning. On the domestic front, however, pressures
on the JPY keep building as the open dispute between the MoF
and BoJ refuses to dig in. The Japanese politicians - like many
European politicians as well- are anxious, that a shift in
monetary policy away from the expansionary mode to a
restrictive one will kill the mild economic upswing that Japan is
experiencing right now. Hence political pressures on BoJ are
building in order to slowdown their path towards normalizing
the quantitative easing policy. This row is though clearly not
doing the JPY any good, which keeps going down the drain
against primarily the USD. The strong uptrend keeps expanding
despite the fact that USD/JPY technically is beginning to look
rather overbought. A state that should be noted, but also a state
that can go on for longer than one can stay solvent. I stick with
my intention to buy back my sold tactical position on a daily
close above 120.50 or at 115 should the cross as originally
expected be in for a healthy correction. The recent spike in
USD/JPY is noteworthy and means an end to the last couple of
years dull trading pattern in the cross. Overall the 123 area
represents a make or break for the present uptrend. Once
broken - USD/JPY gravity will definitely be defied.
Xerof
22-11-2005, 09:05 PM
Time for some preparation and fine tuning coming up?
http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/2280/usdjpy4qk.png
No meaningful sign of the Major yet, as far as I can see anyway, but may come into view around the new year
A good candidate for Monarch 1 Arco?
Xerof
Xerof
12-12-2005, 10:58 PM
Arco, if you're around, any more thoughts on this one longer term?
Slower grind higher this past month, but I wonder whether there's too much more in it. Obviously yen is very weak on crosses, but carry trades have a nasty habit of unwinding all of a sudden.
121.50/122 before a turn around maybe? Perhaps best left alone until new year?
Xerof
Morning Xerof
Certainly a very dirty black EOD candle.
Long term the Butterfly may provide us with some good profits,but I will only be playing short term trades now with the Xmas break looming ahead.
arco
Xerof
The Danish publication dated 9th
JPY - a sleeping beauty
Completely unable to resist, the yen has weakened massively over recent months. Low interest rates, which are not likely to be changed much in the foreseeable future judging by Japanese politicians, have attracted financial players like bees to a honeypot.
All kinds of activities have been financed by borrowing the low-interest currency. Japanese investments abroad have not been hedged as much as earlier, given the high US interest rates. All those elements have weighed down the Japanese currency to the extent that USD/JPY is massively overbought from the technical point of view and actually looks like an accident about to happen.
In that connection it is important to stress that many players have not even been in on the recent impressive upturn of the USD/JPY rate. For to many players, the impressive upturn of the Japanese equity index - the Nikkei - has been incompatible with the JPY weakening (another classic example that one plus one rarely
makes two in the financial markets).
Accordingly, the newly converted buyers of USD/JPY find it very hard indeed to see any downward potential again, and most have their sights on new peaks at 125 and 130. Overall, this is a fantastic basis for a downward correction. From the technical point of view, the correction seems to be about to happen!
The yen is therefore expected to wake up from its beauty sleep soon and undergo a fair appreciation. I have reopened a 50% net short position with the first target at 118.50. But the correction could well go even lower, towards 115-116. So keep your wits about you if you plan to re-finance or have long USD/JPY positions. The correction is expected to sneak up like a thief.
Xerof
15-12-2005, 09:01 AM
quote:JPY - a sleeping beauty
So which Prince kissed the sleeping beauty last night?
a right old tongue bath at that:D:D
Xerof
16-12-2005, 03:17 PM
Well, the prince has got the better of sleeping beauty and got his leg over now :D:D
Fairly obvious that the 'carry trade' holders are now being forced out.
A bit of chatter around regarding the BOJ looking to smooth the flow - watch out for that, because all that will happen is they will provide the liquidity for the Yen side of the various cross carry trades - this will put the pressure on to simply trash the other leg and possibly cause further acceleration of these vs USD.
a mere 4 days ago
quote: carry trades have a nasty habit of unwinding all of a sudden.
Regrettably I had decided to hang the trading boots up until the new year, expecting this move later rather than sooner, so have nothing on what look like being the best moves of the year really [B)][B)]
Such is life in FX
Merry Christmas all
Xerof
quote:Originally posted by elliot wave
The Elliott wave implications of the yen's sideways pattern are clear: Prices just competed a special "contracting triangle" that's been in the making for ten years, and the scope of the resulting move should be equally large. Jeffrey's forecast is explicit:
"When you spot a contracting triangle at any degree of trend on a chart, it's worth getting excited about, because this wave pattern portends a swift move in price. But for me, the most exciting find is one that has taken years to form, because a multi-year, strong, trending market often follows. That's exactly what I believe will be the case in the coming years for the Japanese Yen."
anyone care to help me understand what they are saying here?
Hi Pete
Not professing to be an EW guru by any means, but a Contracting Triangle usually indicates a breakout about to happen.
By the sounds of it, they are looking at a weekly or monthly chart. (Just had a look at the pair and it's monthly)
By my reckoning, the pair will break south, but don't take my word for it, Arco or Xerof may want to confirm.
Check out this link, half way down the page for an explanation of the pattern.
http://www.aeroinvest.com/chart%20Gallery/ElliottWave.htm
Should be a continuation of the trend that preceded the Triangle, hence my call south.
Don't forget they are using a monthly chart and this patter has formed over the last 10 Years, so may take a few years to do anything big on this time scale.
Hope that helps a bit
Cheers
Slam
Pete
Monthly JPY
Plot showing possible resistance at the extention of the triangle line. Notice also the Descending triangle (bearish).
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/011906_168.gif
cheers guys.confirming my suspicions.
Altho in this time frame the correctives would still be quite large it would seem better to generally be playing in the same direction as the major wave. it might grant some unexpected bonuses.
so whereabouts would we be looking for a breakout here? Somewhere around 95-100?
If it convincingly broke that maybe you could be lookin at 55 in no time where no time = 6 mths to a year of course hehe.
Xerof
07-02-2006, 10:47 AM
Pretty little things, aren't they.....
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/9731/jpy6hn.png
Xerof
Hi All
Went short at 119.06
Currently 119pips
anyone else short?
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
07-02-2006, 11:44 PM
Yup, 116 area for me on this one. S/l at b/e now
yeh i shorted at 119.10 and took at 118.02 (demo) i'm thinkin its just a correction.
From My Squawk for what it's worth
Cheers
Slam
quote:February
7. Traders looking for direction on the USD/JPY tonight should cast an eye to
the sharp fall in gold on the Tocom in December and the resultant collapse of
USD/JPY from levels above 120 to levels under 116.00. The Tocom collapse was
triggered by increased margin requirements that saw funds bail out of Tocom gold
contracts. On the physical market, traders mirroring that flow would sell gold,
receive the USD then sell the USD to buy JPY.
A similar fall-out is possible tonight particularly if a Tocom chart is eyed and
traders see the overextended gains on the Tocom. This risks another major
fall-out in USD/JPY, targeting further strong USD/JPY losses. Traders also
expect a large bail-out in the dollar bloc currencies against the JPY in the
wake of the gold and base metal markets collapse. NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY
are all expected to come under pressure tonight. USD/JPY offers remain at 118.20
but stops are seen at 118.30, 118.40 and 118.50 from CTAs. Bids are eyed at
117.70/80 but stops are now reported on USD/JPY at 117.60. --
Xerof
08-02-2006, 11:42 PM
Squared at lowered stop of 118.00 for 100 pips
Xerof
Sulman
11-02-2006, 05:48 PM
Hi all,
I thought I'd provide an image that might provoke some comment.
I am of the impression that the bounce from CD leg of what appears to be a Gartley in this chart is too steep... suggesting a further retest of the 11700 level before heading North again.
I was previously of the opinion that the $USD had indeed come up against an overiding trendline adn the large crab formation on the daily chart woul see USDJPY decline towards the 113 level in short time - but it looks as though any "true" reversal will be delayed at least another month or until interest rates pause.
I have been reading your posts for some months now and have enjoyed every word.
sulman.
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/1779/usdjpy6lj.jpg
Welcome Sulman
This is how JPY.USD seems to be shaping up to me......
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/021206_usd.jpy_107.gif
regards - arco
Sulman
13-02-2006, 01:03 PM
arco
many thanks.
Great, I was looking for a confirmation to go short at this point, but the apparent Gartley on the 4hr was a concern. I'll continune examining forum comments with thanks.
Regards
Xerof
13-02-2006, 02:42 PM
Concur with Arco, its a nice formation on the daily, see my earlier chart, with minimum target of circa 115.75 (61.8% fib)
If broken then the other fibs come into play. 1.618% would be nice!
for today, sell 118.40 if seen, IMO
Xerof
Sulman
13-02-2006, 08:01 PM
I've taken a short position 11783.
s/l at the double top in the 4hr chart. fingers crossed.
Sulman
13-02-2006, 10:50 PM
Hi,
Is that a fib retracement level you selected of 118.40 Xerof?
flat overnight at 116.90 (216 pips)
Looking to short again
Cheers
Slam
Xerof
16-02-2006, 10:47 AM
Sulman, sorry for belated reply - didn't see your second post - yes it was a Fib R1 level if I remember correctly, but didn't quite make it that day
Nice work Slam, are you using pivots and Fib S/R? 11690 was S3. A nice example of using this technique shown below, with both ends seen today
http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/6281/jpypivots1ii.gif
Hi Xerof
Using fib, along with a few other thoughts
circa 116.7 was visited and held twice over the past few days, so I was looking for a break of this to keep the short. When it failed I squared.
Have since gone short again on 118 with a tight stop
See how we go this time:)
Cheers
Slam
Sulman
17-02-2006, 01:02 AM
No problem Xerof, I'm not sure of the fib Resistance levels you have specified in your chart - are they extensions measured form the pivot point? Can you specify the fib values used and also the formula used to calculated the pivot?
TIA.
Xerof
17-02-2006, 09:22 AM
Sulman,
They are daily pivot/res/sup levels calced using standard fibo ratios. I use a demo platform from www.strategybuilderfx.com, which has all the bells and whistles available if you look hard enough through all the threads at the community forums. A lot of programming geeks have written 'indicators' to automate all of this stuff, but it'll mean many hours of sifting to find the best stuff that might suit your trading style.
If you just want to get daily pivots, fib levels, standard pivot levels and camarilla levels (which I believe are very powerful indeed for day trading countertrends) then just go to http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/display_currency_data.php] where they are all updated for a good range of the main currency pairs each day at 00.00GMT or thereabouts.
Xerof
Reversed at 117.61, now long
Looking ok atm
Cheers
Slam
Sulman
18-02-2006, 02:44 AM
Xerof,
Thanks for the link to livecharts.
I've never heard of fib support levels used in this manner. I watch the usual Pivot and Resistance/Support levels.
And it now seems like yet another level of complexity has beeen added to the mix.
I'm already using MT4. There's no automation of these functions that I have found. MQL4 Language is beyond my scope of expertise if that's required.
Again, thanks for the link.
Regards, Sulman
Hi All
Referring to original chart previous page - Posted - 13/02/2006
Update
The action has entered the first target box for a maximum circa 350 pips so far.
GTA - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/022706_usd.jpy_159.gif
Well done arco
Got some of those 350 pips but not as many as I would like:(
Still holding shorts
Cheers
Slam
I shorted this x 3 from its March 14th highs of 119, and still have one left tho am thinking it will retrace somewhat before continuing.
Will start adding more again as it approaches 117.
so in the reasonably big picture this is forming a perfect triangle flaggy pendant thing from Dec condensing over the last few months from 121 at the top to 114 at the bottom and now squeezing itself tighter around the 118 level suggesting that any breakout about 119 ish (maybe 119.50) would be a continuation of the strong trend we saw in the months of Sept-Dec last year.
My thinking is the yen should be getting stronger but technically the evidence is starting (tho not conclusive yet) to look otherwise.
Any comments?
Hi Peat
Yes, the action is coiling up ready for a break out.
There is quite a bit of resistance overhead at circa 11875 which is a Gann number. So, until that area has resolved itself I prefer to stay on the sidelines with this pair.
regards - arco
i'm getting impatient !! this hasta bust soon
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/4493/usdjpy210420061qr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
Hi Peat
JPY is already in play with the first target being entered on yesterdays EOD candle.
http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/1166/042206usdjpy4fe.gif
regards - arco
yup would seem that way. heheh all that tension and build up and I was out Friday nite drinking when it happened lol. thats forex living in NZ for ya.
well i will interpret this as a break out and start selling from now , and more into any retracements.
(still playin demo tho - its all just for the challenge these days)
Second target hit already [8D]
http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/8185/042506usdjpy0yy.gif
GTA - arco
Heres a possible longer term perspective
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/3477/042506ltusdjpy8ns.gif
arco
The hourly three line break gives no sign of a turnaround yet, tho in shorter time frames the corrections are causing the odd green bar.
http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/7653/usdjpy3ptbrk1hr250420063cd.jpg
Hi Peat
114.06-114.20 is a possible Gann minor support area,
so that may be hard to penitrate at the first attempt.
Is the 3 line break helping with your trading ?
regards - arco
yeh my short term signals turned up at 115. closed at that. was worth it still even missing out with that weekend gap.
probably more in this downward at some stage as it was a long congestion period, but will wait for trend to re-emerge.
quote:Originally posted by peat
will wait for trend to re-emerge.
kinda doing that now...back short...
almost got stopped with the upsurge after the news of US production up 6 % last night, but rode through that and ended up with a couple of shorts at around 115 again , they were looking good sort of but at this stage I'm closing them out again for 2x25 pips. kinda looks uppish again, and guess I'm disappointed that a new low hasnt been reached yet.
pringy
10-06-2006, 06:50 PM
Mmm somehow i'm transfixed that USDJPY will go lower for early next week... Can someone please try to convince me otherwise?
Well, partly cause it hit major resistance at 114.70, slight divergence in hourly MACD, and i can't see EURUSD extending below 1.2600, and despite Bernanke being hawkish, i'm predicting the inflation data isn't too bad..
..and mostly cause i'm currently short on USDJPY!
I reckon it will downtrend to bounce of the ascending channel... or if peat has been following the tunnel, bounce off the tunnel!
roddy
I am seeing similar compression (as you post in Eur/USD thread) in the USD JPY and post a pic of it here.
Note that the previous breakout in April was meaningful and substantial. Supposedly the force and distance in these breakouts is proportional to the length of their development so this one might not go so far as the last one but I'm certainly keeping an eye out for it
http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/1995/usdjpy08092006op4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
roddy
08-09-2006, 07:22 PM
Hi Peat
i see what you mean regarding the Yen, also on the daily chart of the Euro it has broken below short term trendline,any thoughts peat as to potential trade.
Cheers cadet roddy
yes i see that the Euro has broken out. I guess you play it in that direction! To me the Euro formation wasnt as clean as the Yen tho, and one would expect them to break out in opposite directions relatively simultaneously and this hasnt happened. Eur/Yen a factor?
Anyway I'm out tonight , not trading.
I have gone long $Y now... it has confirmed... 40 pip stop. OK going out Out NOW haha!
locking in +30 pips at 116.94 and holding .. currently 117.30
miner
11-09-2006, 10:12 PM
Good trade Peat,take a look at eur/jpy,goes the same way,nice hourly run this arvo,often tidier also.
Cheers
Miner
Evening All
Big move about to happen on GBP perhaps....
arco
...still going currently +103@117.66.
have locked in +60 now with stop at 117.33
if I was premature in detecting a breakout on the upside on Fri, I would now say its definitely confirmed, the daily having clearly broken through my descending upper compression line.
Hi Peat
Nice trade.
The action has breached the previous resistance, so looking good.
arco
cheers miner and arco.... thankfully its not in demo either heheh.
roddy
12-09-2006, 08:32 PM
Hi Peat
well executed trade Peat,its great when the
folding is flowing the right way!
cheers
cadet roddy
yes Roddy it is, unfortunately for me however its only recouping losses at this stage.
Last nite I got bold and added at 117.50 so now have 2 contracts on the run. My stupid software doesnt have trailing stops so I will continue to raise them manually. Have put one at 117.63 (+100) and one at 117.75 (+25).
Its a tricky thing choosing these stops.... theres always that desire to hold onto the gains and relinquish as little as possible, but full well knowing that a retrace of 40 or even more pips during the Asian session is not a trend change, and as soon as it stops you out it will race ahead again (and of course I'd be at work and unable to re-enter).
I wish I could calculate those Gann levels like Arco. I was reading up on them but its all very hazy --- squaring price and time???
Hi Peat
You appear to be doing OK with this one.
So, what techniques are you using now to decide on your trades?
FYI theres a Gann ceiling above that may create some hesitation 118.65 (+/-10). This figure changes daily.
regards - arco
The notion of going long US$ (and looking for opportunities to do so) has been based on :
1 : some stuff you said ages ago (in Eur/USD thread specifically)
2 : Max McKeggs recent publications
3 : my seeing that the Yen is being sold strongly against all currencies (but that I would prefer to trade the less volatile of the Yen crosses ie USD and not GBP (the Ninja Beast can really smart)
My compression picture as above was the over-riding factor tho for this particular trade (thanks to Roddy for pointing out the Eur leading the way out i.e down as well).
This made me think that there was a distinct possibility of hundreds of pips. Given my many small losses accumulating over time and slowly but surely draining my account I want to try to focus on higher reward possiblity trades (and less of them)
I calculate my stop points from a support and resistance perspective in that retracements often go back to the top of the previous upward movement.
Yes it could all be more scientific... [:I]
roddy
13-09-2006, 05:24 PM
Hi Peat
just came across the wire
USD/JPY is trading at the day"s high just below 118.00 after the BOJ Minutes
didn"t sound a hawkish tone as some expected after board member Mizuno"s
comments were published by Bloomberg earlier today. Mizuno said that the BOJ
would still look to gradually raise rates despite mixed data of late, but the
BOJ Minutes were non-committal and suggested there was no timetable in place for
future rate hikes this year. The USD/JPY trades 117.95/118.00. --
cheers cadet roddy
cheers for that roddy
it retraced just enough today to take out my second position, but the first is still hangin in, all good.....
roddy
14-09-2006, 10:26 AM
Hi Peat/Arco,
Peat it appears from your posts on jpy that you are making a transition from a short term trader to a more medium term time frame.
Farleigh also in his book after back testing,
indices,commodities,currencies,nasd,anything which had high liquidity and was tradeable, concluded that prices arent always random and yes the trend does exist and that if a trader
got into a trend there was a 10% chance of it continuing,meaning that by being in a trend and sticking with it, gives a trader a comparative advantage.
Arco
From your posts Arco, you let your profits run and make large gains per trade, if i may ask how do you monitor the trade and know when to exit?
Cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Exits. Good question, but there is no one answer.
Depending on the initial trigger, exits will/can be pre-determined by Fibs and Gann in the case of a Butterfly/Gartley.
But for a H & S or Cup and Handle the target calculations will be different, but also being aware of Fib and Gann.
Once a trade is underway a trailing stop can be applied, but I also like to take some profit off the table at set targets leaving the balance to stop itself out. That way it may be possible get a slightly longer run on the balance.
If working on EOD then monitoring can be daily, but stops will trigger automatically if there is a major move against the position. I do also check my positions occasionally if I am in the office.
Hope that goes some way to answering your question, but really I could probably write a whole book about the subject.
regards - arco
roddy
14-09-2006, 05:55 PM
Hi Peat/Arco
thank you for your reply Arco,will implement taking some off the table and leaving profits to run.
Peat are you still in JPY if so what stategy will you use or did you use for final exit,given that Arco
quote
{could probably write a whole book about the subject.}its certainly a biggy,so any comments
cheers cadet roddy
Xerof
14-09-2006, 06:33 PM
Arco said:
quote:I could probably write a whole book about the subject
I thought you were!
And whats more, lol, when do we get a copy for peer review....
regards
Xerof
p.s. real squeeze going on the Kiwi now - testing the Major and his troops again
Hi Xerof
Tis true, I did make a start, and my efforts are still in the computer taking up megabytes of space.
I eventually decided Butterfly farming was far more interesting (and much more profitable [8D]) and I reluctantly put the writing on permanent hold.
arco
Xerof
14-09-2006, 09:07 PM
Yes OK, fair enough.
I just posted a nice specimen in the butterfly house for your viewing pleasure
regards
Xerof
i was closed out at the stated stops roddy. so a good trade, tho as always I was hoping for more :D
i got in early and continuing my long $ preference went long on this pair @ 117.27 stop 116.93
closed now - call it scalping if you like, i'll just call it a quick 60 pips. actually mainly decided to close it out coz I'm a bit unsettled as my girl got rushed into hospital .... shes okay... but forex is low priority till she comes home.
Peat
My thoughts are with you.
Trusting all will be well
Regards - arco
miner
26-09-2006, 04:36 PM
Worth watching for a possible long,test 116.74 anyway,so same with eur/jpy,although this one looks better,but then it does lead the 2 so...
Cheers
Capitan Tealeaf
Hi Miner
Due to US economic data due this week there should be plenty of ranging which could be good for your scalping strategies.
Calendar here....
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/economic-calendar/events/
regards - acro
miner
26-09-2006, 08:31 PM
Thanks for that arco,was looking at this daily to finish ok,looking at the last 2 daily's ,in the mean time though was an ok short and an even better one on eur/jpy,pity I was out back now though so see how we go,see usd/chf through yesterdays high.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-09-2006, 09:07 AM
Morning Arco,well that was an ok daily candle,see after being a bit naughty and going south eur/jpy turned around the spiny top(hourly 22.00) and followed north also.
Cheers
Miner
miner
29-09-2006, 11:02 PM
Still going north If anyone was watching?.
Cheers
Miner
[|)]v.v.[|)]
short ninja beast tho on this occasion.jumps around a lot and if you're not careful the samurai makes you bleed.at this partic moment +60 from 220.89, but in a few minutes who can say!
miner
29-09-2006, 11:51 PM
220.89? peat.
GBP/JPY yeh I'm going for low 219's
miner
29-09-2006, 11:55 PM
O ok was looking at usd/jpy thinking ??????? I must be loosing hehe,good if your up 60 pips.
miner
03-11-2006, 10:42 AM
Early tea leaf call but just looking at this and the last daily and put a wee trend line on them,as it did again last night it goes the same way as eur/jpy (most of the time) so looking at a possible long same as eur/jpy,so ok call or egg on my face?,time will tell hehe.
Cheers
Miner
miner
06-11-2006, 10:01 AM
Well that went to plan 100 odd pips,eur/jpy did what it usually does and went the same way although not for as many pips,so you guys can put those egg's away:D.
Cheers
Miner
miner
13-11-2006, 03:09 PM
Peat watch this one to see what eur/jpy will do as they are doing there usual and going the same way,this and my other 3 may be turning about now.
Cheers
Miner
miner
13-11-2006, 11:09 PM
And turn they did peat,nice runs in the last hour and your back in the green on eur/jpy:D.
Cheers
Miner
yeh good call miner , I added Eur/Gbp at 6724 with tp at 54 for that one.
stops for eur/jpy pulled up a little still below 151 tho.
miner
13-11-2006, 11:41 PM
Hi Peat that may have been the turn for the next run up(through 151.47) but never be shy of using a get out of jail card in this game.
Cheers
Miner
Oh wow...could things be much clearer........
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/jpy.usd_w_291106.gif
(Check out that last fall which gave circa 4000 pips for dozing holders).
arco
thats a VERY large scale in time AND pips.
Wondering how a view like that affects trading in a practical sense?
Hi Peat
IMO its of help to medium/longer term traders because while the upper pitch fork line remains intact it means the extreme long term trend could continue lower. Therefore shorts could be perhaps less risky than longs to such a trader - hope that makes sense.
regards - arco
Todays Ichi Lesson - every picture tells a story
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/jpy.usd_d_291106.gif
arco
roddy
29-11-2006, 09:31 PM
Hi Arco
After looking up Peats link i will have a stab at interpreting the posted chart.
the Tenken-Sen has crossed below the Kijun-Sen which is bearish added to the fact that it was above the Kumo which was support and price has consequently fallen through would suggest that this indicator is confirming the downward trend of the pitch fork
roddy
BTW 4000 lazy pips has to be good('[8D]')
Excellent Roddy.
One other major point.
The Chikou Span has broken through the price plot.
In addition you can use an Oscillator of your choice, and you will see in this case it is now below the mid-line.
You will often find he action reverses to test the Kumo and/or the Kijun polarity change , so a possible entry point could be on a reversal candle signal/ pivot backing off near those, or conservatively below the recent pivot low.
FYI. I notice there is now also a Ichi Forum. Not sure what the quality is like at the moment.
http://www.boersmaandhunt.com/kumotrader_forum/
regards -arco
the risk reward on Arcos long term Pitchfork starts to look a little better.
roddy
09-12-2006, 12:14 PM
Yes, the trick will be fine tuning an entry,when this pull back has finished,i can handle being a dosing holder.
roddy[|)]
Sleepy [|)]
miner
26-01-2007, 11:00 AM
Looking at how this daily is going to finish it may be worth watching this one for a long.
Cheers
Miner
miner
29-01-2007, 02:09 PM
Well it was a long even if a tad messy,now worth a watch to see if goes through 121.79 on the daily.
Cheers
miner
miner
05-02-2007, 03:46 PM
http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/278/fxfxxxgq5.png
A "U" in the making?.
Cheers
Miner
miner
05-02-2007, 05:29 PM
http://img378.imageshack.us/img378/9274/fxhbw4.png
Not a great "U" but gave a few pips,referring to what I said on the other thread if you went short on my first chart I posted there was a couple of pips in it,but if it gets close to your target(my bottom line) then safer to see what it does.
Trading into supp or ress lines on trading patterns can be well safeish,eur/jpy is a better example today,also look at the 11am hourly(the daily change) it was a good time to look for an entry,so as I keep saying like a broken record the daily candle change is a good time to watch,also as at that time of day you can see possible targets for the day.
Tea leaf stuff I know but hope of some help.
Cheers
Miner
well imo this has now broken out its small (15min) corrective pennant on the downside , tho I followed todays notion of getting in a lil early at 120.81. a mere 10 pip stop. 30 pip target
eur/jpy and gbp/jpy showing similar tendencies but the pennant not so well formed.
heh paid the price of not waiting for the break out to actually happen 11 pips overboard on this one. [B)]
miner
05-02-2007, 08:04 PM
The worm has turned for now Peat,look at eur/jpy,I just sold for a few pips but was a bad trade as could have got in earlier and should have sold around 156.20,but that's what you get when you enter as a trade and turn it into a medium hold,don't break the rules is the rule.
Anyway that's me until later going to watch Touching The Void on tv1 at 8.30 should be a good movie,messy market at the moment anyway,after the daily,early arvo was better.
Cheers
Miner
false breakout seemingly... now going down again , I have re-entered at 76, similar stop/takes as before but of course not such a good entry and with a negative start ... lets see....
as ya said miner messy today , whipping me round on this too.... so all bailed once it broke through 86 on the up.... double black eye for me today [V]
miner
25-06-2007, 01:48 PM
Possible U trade back up to 124.10,15min & Hourly.
Cheers
miner
Hi Miner
At what point do you decide/confirm the formation is a 'U'
regards - arco
miner
27-06-2007, 03:12 PM
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/7605/arco1rx8.png
Hi Arco this is for todays trade,not power charts as they still dont work and took me ages to get this far also hence the bit at the bottom.
But top line is an entry as are the next 2 down,and obviously the bottom line is the target.
Took 23 pips after a late entry and then didn't jump when I thought it had turned,so not a great trade but still not to well.
My other time frames work in with this 15min one for what to do,if you want?? I will post them also?.
usd/jpy was the mirror image of this trade which also help me decide it was a U trade.
Hope this helps explain how I pick these but as I dont talk charty it's hard to explain what I see,let me know what you think anyway.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-06-2007, 03:30 PM
http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/5493/arco2rg3.png
http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/7247/arco3ir8.png
Sould add I wait for these lines to be broken before i enter and also that am still a tad sick so sorry but all a bit rough.
The lines are for the ride down but also look at the candles on the left,say for the last chart(5min) was looking at 165.59 to be broken,it did so stay short,also see how it went short again around that number after the bounce back up,usd/jpy doing the same so they confirm each other.
So just doing another U trade.
Cheers
miner
miner
27-06-2007, 04:14 PM
http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/8545/arco5do5.png
Ok 165.41 was the safe U short entry,but 165.55 was ok if you look at the bigger picture as all we have done is a wee bounce up then back down for original 165.08 target(but never get stuck on a target like this as may or may not get there but usualy if not fairly close to it,or you just get it completly wrong and suck eggs),as I type we are back testing 165.21 which was supp and may now be ress,either way there was 20 odd pips in it if you jumped now.
The break of 165.48 on the 5min was a short entry also,and once again look at it's mate usd/jpy for conformation,so they just did the back to test U thing.
Cheers
miner
Thanks Miner for taking the time to upload the
charts - I will study them with your explanations
and get back to you with any questions.
Just one immediate question.
What calculations are the green horizontal lines based on.
regards -arco
miner
27-06-2007, 04:57 PM
Hi Arco now you got me hehe,um no calculations so to speak of just points that if get broken then the move should start-continue,this say for these charts can be points on the right of the chart(going down) or on the left(points when it was going up) see how it broke 165.22 then continued to my target,so another short entry BUT as to close to the target higher risk.
So the last charts that have now hit my 165.08 target,165.41 was the bottom of the shooting star on the hourly and on the 5min was a break south of the 3 hammer candles,and on the 15min it broke the hammer that was before the shooting star,so all 3 said short,so no calculations so to speak.
I realise I am being very general naming these candles but hey it works,so if you turn this all around you work stops out by these points go from supp to ress or change to a long,ie same system just going north.
If you look at usd/jpy it was only off by 2pips for it's target of 122.80,so again confirmation of the moves,if you apply the same system to usd/jpy you will get the same result.
So in my usual tea leaf lingo I hope that made some sense?,also some of those lines are a bit rough as in not exactly to the pip,but still a tad sore after my opp so not that onto it.
Cheers
Miner
Hi Miner
As I see it then basically you are plotting support/resistance
points, which if broken (or a reversal candle pattern appears)
you enter.
One additional method that can be used with this system is to plot
the s/r points on a number of extended time frames. Where confluence
appears those points should possess more power.
http://www.trade-experience.com/trex/images/levels/GE-support-Med.jpg
regards - arco
miner
27-06-2007, 05:32 PM
That's allot of it but also look at a bigger picture as in daily and then times as in are we about to close a 5,15min,hourly or daily candle,or have we just started one(hard to explain).
For eur/jpy and usd/jpy I am now tending towards looking long,double bottom on 15min and 3 on 5min for eur/jpy,BUT if not in sit on hands for now until it sorts itself out as higher risk trade to enter now,if already short run a stop at say 165.25 so as just above 165.22.
Ta for your thoughts and chart and yes I look for that as as you say they break and run stronger.
I use this system sort of in revers for running stops,ie break supp go short then stop just above that supp as it turns to ress,then move down to next one if it gets there etc.
So today's bigger u (picture) was from 166.34 on the hourly for eur/jpy.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-06-2007, 05:57 PM
Well arco eur/jpy broke 165.04 so went short at 165.01,but break even stop on now,see how we go,went short also as usd/jpy broke 122.08,16pips so for fingers crossed hehe.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-06-2007, 06:48 PM
Fing ISP dropped me and my charts off twice but anyway got stopped out for 41pips so ok for a quick trade.
Cheers
Miner
miner
27-06-2007, 08:34 PM
http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/8006/arco7ug9.png
Another good U trade,you can see it on the 15min and hourly also,anyway my ISP keeps dropping me off so that's me but wouldn't be surprised if we go north tonight,good luck guys.
Cheers
Miner
miner
28-06-2007, 10:20 AM
Well it went north 100+ pips so far,should have set that buy up last night,but did go long at 165.25 and have a break even stop on so will see how we go,looking for 165.62 first target on the hourly,bigger picture 166.90 on the daily,see it's same way mate usd/jpy gone north also,123.18 first target hourly,124.11 daily.
Cheers
Miner
miner
28-06-2007, 10:34 AM
Ok testing my first target,if we get through this then 166.33 hourly for a big U,stop moved up to 165.35,usd/jpy will need to get through first target for this move to continue,if so then next is 123.50 on the hourly for it's big U,sorry posting on 2 pairs on the one thread guys hope it's ok?.
Cheers
Miner
Morning Miner
Trust you are improving.
Just spotted your post re Eur.Jpy
Myself (and Mrs arco) both went in at 165.40
She has already taken her 25 pip scalp (3 lots),
and retired for the day (maybe :D)
I've taken one lot off at 25 pips with one lot still
running (+24).
Trust you are in and gaining pips.
regards - arco
miner
28-06-2007, 10:56 AM
Good stuff Arco,me just pissed didn't go with last nights thought and set a buy at 164.29 as those 2 candles on the hourly said U turn time,then got on late today due to my sore you know what hehe,but still in at 165.25,stop at 165.40 now,see if can stay in for 166.33(eur/jpy hourly target),both are looking ok for a good hourly close so should be ok for next target.
Edit Hmm the brakes are coming on.
Cheers
Miner
miner
28-06-2007, 11:05 AM
usd/jpy having a battle at the first target,this is the key to the move for these 2,if through ok then second target will be hit.
Cheers
miner
miner
28-06-2007, 11:50 AM
Hi again Arco,ok talking eur/jpy,looking for the big U on the hourly,see how at the moment we are doing a small U,the bottom of this was an entry as was the bottom of the last red hourly,keeping in mind the big target.
So as entry points they save a few pips,if this small U now breaks higher we are on the way to the big targets,also note how we are getting close to the close of the hour,so if we close this hour above the 5-15min small U we are looking good,if we go below the bottom of this small U we are in trouble,so stop is now moved up to 165.45 and if hour closes ok will move up again as top of this U will then be the supp number or there abouts,through as I type BUT need to close the hour ok hope this is of some help.
Cheers
Miner
miner
28-06-2007, 11:54 AM
Stop now 165.70 so just below the top of that last small U.
Cheers
Miner
miner
28-06-2007, 01:31 PM
See how it broke below the top of that last small U and went south,so the break of it was the short signal.
Cheers
miner
Hi Miner
Ahh....missed the action - went shopping and
left the final position open to do whatever
it pleased.
.....came back to find my stop got hit on
that final position....but fortunately no loss,
and very good profits from the other 4 lots.
......onwards and upwards, looking for the next opp.
regards - arco
miner
28-06-2007, 02:59 PM
Good stuff Arco,I grabbed a few pips out of it but not as much as I should have,but then will be a few weeks before running on all cylinders again so a win is better than a loss,was a good example of a U trade though.
Cheers
Miner
miner
02-07-2007, 09:10 AM
quote:Originally posted by miner
Well it went north 100+ pips so far,should have set that buy up last night,but did go long at 165.25 and have a break even stop on so will see how we go,looking for 165.62 first target on the hourly,bigger picture 166.90 on the daily,see it's same way mate usd/jpy gone north also,123.18 first target hourly,124.11 daily.
Cheers
Miner
Well I see on friday eur/jpy hit(or there abouts) my big U target of 166.90,so a good example of U's working there way up towards the bigger U target,so with the bigger U targets in mind you can enter on the pull backs on the smaller U's.
The catch being that usd/jpy turned to follow usd/chf and eur/jpy followed eur/usd,but now and then they do this,then they will change back to the norm.
Eur/jpy as usual a great pair to play.
Cheers
miner
dumbass
14-08-2007, 09:45 PM
any thoughts............. on possible long usd / jpy key support at 1.1720
also i would appreciate any thoughts on why metastock charts this pair the wrong way eg jpy / usd when its usd / jpy , always think im going to trade it the wrong way
dumbass
16-08-2007, 09:37 PM
have acted on failed pattern and break of key support as bearish sign short in progress will add at break of 11555 , tight stop 11590 target 11450
Potential continuation of longer term short position.
Ichi gave short signals back in June/July, and for pipsters still
hanging in it seems to me the action might just be about to break
down further south.
Here's what I'm looking at
Longer term Bear Flag + short term Bear Flag.
Resistance of Chikou on Kumo. (Mustard Line - Blue circle)
Kijun Sen and Kumo appear could be resistant to northern advance.
Plus if we consider the possible EW scenario the print appears to be
in an ABC - 5/3/5.
May be potential here for another 500-600 pips for patient holders IMO.
Just need to see the flag and previous resistance line break.
GTA - arco
dumbass
01-11-2007, 09:14 PM
thoughts very similar on this one arco
close to a south bound move , im ew counting wave 2 retracement to 116 ish then a 3 wave to new low
possible butterfly forming as well V - C - i- ii
dumbass
07-11-2007, 11:50 PM
this one performing nicely arco , both ascending channels broken hopefully to go lower 111 just maybe
Updating the chart
Currently the position has given circa 300 pips
from the entry mentioned on 1/11
GTA -arco
miner
08-11-2007, 08:11 PM
Evening Arco ok looking U set up back to days low,was short this for a few pips now short eur/jpy for it's possible U,same as usd/jpy.
Cheers
Miner
miner
08-11-2007, 08:13 PM
O yeah VERY good call as usual,good stuff.
Cheers
Miner
miner
08-11-2007, 08:23 PM
Stop got hit,made a few pips,looks like may be messy for a bit after those big moves.
Cheers
Miner
Evening Miner
Possibility of test of polarity after Flag break and
with 112.50 being a powerful Gann point we may
see a little hesitation at this stage.
Next post I may become a LEG-END....oh no
rgds - arco
dumbass
10-11-2007, 07:34 AM
target reached in extra quick time
for a reward of 438 pips and im rapt
i have been trying to go for bigger picture moves
so heres what i learnt ,
dont post it here, is there such a thing as the posters curse , is it because you want to post the ones that look like a certainty and by the very nature of the markets they are most likely to fail.
set your trade and then dont meddle with it , give it a chance to wiggle , i left mystop at entry after first day for the complete trade .this has got to be a risky option but i get stopped out a lot for small profits , which doesnt really justify the effort.
so catch one of these once in a while
i still dont know how arco seems to identify the powerful moves, its rare that you post a trade and it just drifts lower ?? i just cant identify those trades yet
Morning All
The recent Yen trade is now +500 pips
Yes, the long moves are the money makers if you can hang on in
through the roller coaster of waves.
As I said many times before, I try to get 100 pips on a portion,
and then let the other ride with stop at b/e initially.
Finding longer term moves is probably something that perhaps
comes with experience.....there is no secret formula.
Good weekend all - arco
roddy
10-11-2007, 10:10 PM
DB
Well done,nice trade DB
cheers
roddy
Lizard
11-11-2007, 10:16 AM
Next post I may become a LEG-END....oh no
And a well-deserved title for you, Arco! :)
dont post it here, is there such a thing as the posters curse
i think its just the traders curse more than anything.
Trades go wrong , and part of the overall skillset is dealing with this - I've said it before that section in the book you leant me is really good on this.
DB........so heres what i learnt ,
dont post it here, is there such a thing as the posters curseDB .........There is no such thing as a posters curse.......If that was your trade idea you would have been wrong whether you posted or not.....Suggest you 'Feel the fear and post it anyway'. Its a good learning curve, and no one is going to blame you if you get it wrong.
I remember the first chart I posted on ST over 5000 posts ago.....I was scared stiff it would be wrong, and I took a long time deliberating on my post. I get it wrong sometimes, all traders get it wrong sometimes.......its all part of thr wonderful world of trading. Now I perhaps have a bigger fear when I post, because I fear people might follow my ideas and lose their money.
If you get it right 70% of the time it would constitute a very good trading record...and dont forget the main secret to sucess is money managment.
So DB - I will still be looking forward to seeing your trade ideas.
May the majority of your ideas be winners - arco
roddy
14-11-2007, 08:31 AM
Hi DB/Arco,
here is daily into 1618
hourly looking like it might bounce so have a tight stop and will see what happens!
http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/9086/jpy1er8.th.jpg (http://img402.imageshack.us/my.php?image=jpy1er8.jpg)
dumbass
18-11-2007, 10:46 AM
possibly in c wave of 4th
could try a long to poss 11250 target then watch for reversal for 5th down
dumbass
24-02-2008, 11:19 AM
waiting for bear flag to break for a significant move lower
looks like its not ready yet
messy correction in progress
thinking of initiating a long from hammer bottom on lower flag border and see where it takes me
dumbass
26-02-2008, 10:30 AM
100+ on this one but more to come as hopefully takes out resistance at 10830
dumbass
27-02-2008, 06:11 PM
looking at long again on usdjpy
stalled at gartley reversal zone on hourlies with hammer printed
possible shallow b point may suggest a bat with a reversal zone 10688
finger on the trigger but watching
excellent risk limit at 10660
dumbass
29-02-2008, 04:27 PM
waiting for bear flag to break for a significant move lower
looks like its not ready yet
messy correction in progress
thinking of initiating a long from hammer bottom on lower flag border and see where it takes me
updated chart shows bear flag complete
in bearish count this is in a 3 of a 3 of a 3
high hopes for this one going much much lower
Craig3215
03-03-2008, 06:20 PM
While we're looking at the long term charts, here's a look at the JPY monthly chart looks like an descending triangle very similar to the one I posted on the USD/CHF thread about a year ago with a dip below the support line before the beginning of the descending triangle I'm thinking we get one more test of the upper trend line before blasting through 100 it fits well with my view (mostly based on Martin Armstrong's view) of the equity markets
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/jpydes.gif
trendy
17-03-2008, 01:28 PM
You better update the chart as we have currency freefall. USD.JPY now 97.4 and still falling
Craig3215
17-03-2008, 04:42 PM
Your right pretty crazy open but I'll wait for the month to close before I update the chart as this is a monthly chart
max mckeggs target is 56
(he sent me an email but given I'm not a subscriber I have no secrecy obligation?)
Craig3215
17-03-2008, 05:12 PM
Arco's Nov 29 2006 chart suggest something similar
Not sure if its ready to fly yet but it might be
worth keeping an eye on this little blue specimen.
(Theres also a potential Gart or BF on the 4 hour)
GTA - arco
I had put in a limit sell at 104.99 woke up early this morning and it had been taken and turned perfectly :D
The large stop I used (small position) had given it plenty of room to move but will rein that in a bit now and let it run (fly?).
Amongst all these bendy roads its great to have an Alpine Guide
Curr price 104.10
Morning Peat
I also had an order in but with a 50 pip target.
So a nice surprise this morning.
arco - traversing the slippery slopes :)
dumbass
17-05-2008, 10:34 AM
nice result peat
closed 3 positions eur jpy at 161.50 250 + 250 + 80 +
id consider myself lucky and i am reviewing short stance
i guess you make your own luck but thanking the big guy
closed that out before sleep at +114
is it time to get some in the other direction
not quite
think I need some confirmation before I jump in
http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/1043/usdjpy1hr2205008me0.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/1043/usdjpy1hr2205008me0.3d3701e7ac.jpg (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=442&i=usdjpy1hr2205008me0.jpg)
have dipped toes at 102.78 (no that theres any sign of a reversal) simply that the risk reward ratio is quite favourable at these levels with just below 102.5 as the stop.
dumbass
22-05-2008, 05:07 PM
nice peat
just watching for the trendline break on the hourly then you may be in for a nice bag
good luck
yeh its good to get a quick buffer in , moving stop up to just below the recent low now almost breakeven
half closed +125
stop brought up to +90 for remainder
miner
23-05-2008, 04:34 PM
Nice work Peat.
Cheers
Miner
it would appear the direction has changed now.... woke up about 2:30 on Sat morning (after NFP) and hit it for +90 taken this morning. Will trade again!
DA has (somewhere on this site) inferred a correlation betweeen USD/JPY and DOW. seems to be true at the moment
DA do you remember where this correlation DOW v USD/JPY was?
Regards Bilo
DA is away as well.....
he said it in the NZX forum
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?t=5794&page=3
post #257
I've re-entered short USD/JPY @ 105.19
actually it was belumat who posted the graph tho, in post #260 of that thread - dont see why I cant link to it here
http://bp2.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/SCaB3UCxHWI/AAAAAAAAAE8/AFwTkk5AOLE/s1600-h/usd-jpy+vs+s%26p+index+%28short+term%29++9+may+08.GIF (http://bp2.blogger.com/_6nTmMn9wzb4/SCaB3UCxHWI/AAAAAAAAAE8/AFwTkk5AOLE/s1600-h/usd-jpy+vs+s%26p+index+%28short+term%29++9+may+08.GIF)
http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/7565/usdjpyspzx2.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/7565/usdjpyspzx2.055f8d83b3.jpg (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=73&i=usdjpyspzx2.gif)
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