LYC: rare earth minerals the next big thing

[STRAT]

Looks all Good to me Strat, Not sure about being a Double Top though, reading a little bit too much into too smaller time frame data, it does show resistance though on a very short term basis.

Ill post a chart shortly.Thanks AA.
Re double top. I know the time frame is short but the second top was on less volume and worthy of close attention next week I thought. What would normally be considered a reasonable time frame between peaks?

[stevo1]

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/lyc_ax_price_daily_and_price_and-1.png

The Break Above The Blue Line is where Price Made a Higher High following the Trend Line Break, This is where The Up Trend becomes a Confirmed uptrend.

The Blue Line was Resistance it is now Support, resistance becomes support once broken.

Price Volume Trend Is very much like OBV it confirms the Reversal by breaking above the Blue Line.

This Means The reversal is volume supported, the support of market participation improves the odds of Price Trend continuation.

Resistance isn't until The Red line, a place where there was prior Price congestion.

I like Support and Resistance based Trailing stops.

A initial stop could have been placed just under the blue line.

The red line could be a Potential Take profit point, or sell half of holding. Depend on your intended investment timeframe.

Thanks for that Strat and AA much appreciated.

[stevo1]

Considering that the US taxpayers are about to become auto manufacturers and the US policy is for environmental sustainability and clean energy it strikes me that to leave the basis of that technology (REE,s)in almost total control of Chinese interest is folly.
At some stage USA has to gain control of an REE rescource outside of Chinese interest and the choices are limited to a few co's

[stevo1]

Ann pending concerning potential additional financing .


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090429/pdf/31h8ygtn0fnlpv.pdf

[Snapper]

Ann pending concerning potential additional financing .


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090429/pdf/31h8ygtn0fnlpv.pdf

It's got to be good...doesn't it?

[stevo1]

It's got to be good...doesn't it?

I would hope so ,depends on who with ,terms etc,but it looks promising.

[Snapper]

Apparently there was a bid for 3 million at 31 cents this morning, since pulled.
This from the West Australian

Lynas in trading halt on finance deal

29th April 2009, 8:15 WST


Shares in WA-focused rare earth explorer Lynas Corporation have gone into a trading halt pending an announcement about “additional financing” of the company.

Lynas, whose main asset is the Mt Weld rare earth deposit south of Laverton, requested the halt before the market opened on Wednesday.

“The trading halt is requested pending an update concerning potential additional financing for the company,” Lynas told the ASX.

Last month the company struck a peace deal with bondholders owed $US95 million ($136 million).

Lynas executive chairman Nick Curtis said at the time Lynas was in a position to arrange new funding facilities for about $US200 million to enable completion of the suspended Mt Weld project.

He said there was significant interest from parties, including the Malaysian Government which wants to safeguard a related rare earths processing plant in the South-East Asian country, to provide the funding.

Mr Curtis said he expected to have arranged the money within the next six to 12 months.

He said all options, including selling equity in the Mt Weld project, would be considered.

Lynas shares rose half a cent yesterday to close at 29.5 cents.

Their most recent peak was $1.60 in March last year.

The trading halt will remain in place until the opening of trade on Friday, May 1, or when the announcement is made.

[Snapper]

No trading halt in the US. Lyc last sale was US$0.35c up 50% for the day. Don't know why they weren't on a trading halt there as well but interesting to see their take on the pending announcement.

Some speculation if its going to be debt or equity or some of both. If they do a rights issue I'd be keen for some more if it meant that they would get to a stage where they were making money instead of spending it.

[STRAT]

No trading halt in the US. Lyc last sale was US$0.35c up 50% for the day. Don't know why they weren't on a trading halt there as well but interesting to see their take on the pending announcement.

Some speculation if its going to be debt or equity or some of both. If they do a rights issue I'd be keen for some more if it meant that they would get to a stage where they were making money instead of spending it.Hi Snapper. Whats the ticker and exchange in the US?

[Snapper]

Hi Snapper. Whats the ticker and exchange in the US?

LYSCF: PKC which I think is an over the counter market. Volume wasn't huge, about 130,000.

[STRAT]

Hi Snapper. Whats the ticker and exchange in the US?Found it :D

[Snapper]

Up another 15% overnight in the US, albeit small volumes. Last trade at 40.5c US.

[marknz88]

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090501/pdf/31hcsbsqnrbtl7.pdf

Looks like the Chinese will have a strangle hold on the rare earths market after all.

What are peoples thoughts on the deal?

Im currently in two minds as to whether this is a great deal for Lynas, or something that may take away its sheen of being one of the only non Chinese owned rare earth plays.

Will see how it pans out over the coming months.

[stevo1]

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090501/pdf/31hcsbsqnrbtl7.pdf

Looks like the Chinese will have a strangle hold on the rare earths market after all.

Yep very smart move,the Chinese now have virtually total control of the basis for energy and technology into the future.
Astounding that the USA did not leap on REE,s however still has to pass regulative proceedures in Aus so they are not there yet.

I Cant see it doing the SP much harm it will certainly assure the future for LYC but I am dissappointed on a personal note and beleive that the lack of forsight in the west places energy and technology firmly in Chinese control.

[Snapper]

Yep very smart move,the Chinese now have virtually total control of the basis for energy and technology into the future.
Astounding that the USA did not leap on REE,s however still has to pass regulative proceedures in Aus so they are not there yet.

I Cant see it doing the SP much harm it will certainly assure the future for LYC but I am dissappointed on a personal note and beleive that the lack of forsight in the west places energy and technology firmly in Chinese control.


I agree. Have sold mine today as I think this is all the upside we're going to get for a while. Would have preferred something not quite so dilutionary but smart move from the Chinese.

ARU and LYC now under Chinese control...better start learning Mandarin

[stevo1]

I agree. Have sold mine today as I think this is all the upside we're going to get for a while. Would have preferred something not quite so dilutionary but smart move from the Chinese.

ARU and LYC now under Chinese control...better start learning Mandarin

Hi Snapper I wouldn't rule out a counter offer or a no from the Oz regulaters ,REE's are a strategic rescource.
Dilution isn't so clever, either is the controling stake which I think is way too cheap for majority control.

All this is tempered somewhat by the increased SP and volume buying and I suppose the certainty of coming to production.
The 41 cps on market is somewhat more than the T/O price CNMC have offered
Damnded shame to see such a shortsighted outlook from US and Oz financiers.

[Snapper]

I was pretty keen to book some profit on this one but if the Chinese get knocked back and the share price retreats I'd think seriously about getting back in because someone, somewhere, sooner or later will want to make sure this project gets underway.

[stevo1]

This is part of an article in Brisbane times
But like the proposed bail-outs of OZ Minerals by China's Minmetals and Rio Tinto by China's Chinalco, the deal - which involves CNMC moving to a controlling 51.6 per cent of Lynas - must first secure clearance from the Federal Government after it is subject to scrutiny by the Foreign Investment Review Board.

Direct investment by the state-owned groups in resources sector has become a hot political issue - reflected in the Senate's formal inquiry in to the matter.

China controls the world's rare earths industry and has referred to its own industry as its version of Saudi Arabia's oil riches. Rare earths are finding more high-end applications, ranging from compact fluorescent light bulbs and flat panel displays to MP3 players.

Lynas can argue that without the Chinese investment the Mount Weld project would remain mothballed, as it has been since February, when the global financial crisis squeezed its financing options.

A feature of the deal is that while CNMC will hold four positions on Lynas's expanded board of eight, the executive chairman, Nicholas Curtis, will hold the casting vote.

Lynas shares rose 15c to close at 44.5c.
full article http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/chinese-to-the-rescue-of-lynass-wa-mine-20090501-aq7k.html
I dont think that this is a done deal.The market premium to CNMC's offer suggest ther is more to come.

What are your thoughts suntboy or are you down at the Toyota dealers getting a Prius or two.(congrats you must be well happy with SP increase)

[STRAT]

Hey well done you guys. Very nice indeed :D

[suntboy]

My thoughts are just that mine (maybe way off the mark)
Firstly what it has done has put a minimum value on the companies projects (dont forget Africa )
This now says to the rest , which includes Japan , america and others if you want to stop the monopoly this is the starting price.
I am certain they have all run the ruler over LYC but what will be holding them back is the simple fact that China has 90% of REE's and if threatened they will lift their tariffs on exports and simply crush who ever owns LYC and the company will fold.
We in a perfect world would love someone else to own them but unless a government steps in to prop the company up I cannot see that(I thought Malaysia might but all they want is the project to go ahead)
So as a holder I am more than happy to have chinas assistance in making me a millionaire

Welcome To Suntland

[suntboy]

And I will go on if I may ( been away all week in the Coromandel helpin a mate with picking Kiwi fruit $13 an hour carryin 20 kilos around your neck 8 hours with 30 mins for lunch)
You soon learn how others have to work to pay their rent , petrol etc and you soon appreciate how in my case an investment like this may well change my life.
Further on the Chinese monopoly it really is the only way that any company can go and as a shareholder we should be extremely happy about that as this is where we are going to get the greatest value .
I would think this will run its course but more importantly it may well open the floodgates for new IPO's and a company that next floats solely for the search of REe's (unlike ARU)
could well go gangbusters
As i am rehydrating and dreaming of my million I know of 3 good mates who have as many as me and maybe I should run it by them(CEO of Suntland Rare earths)

Welcome to Suntland - Kiwifruit Free Zone

[Ponda]

The announcement on Friday resulted in a 50% rise in the share price. I am surprised that it was limited to that and thought that it would have increased a lot further. Possibly the weekend has allowed others to 'run the ruler' over the ann and maybe on Monday we will see a greater rise than what we had on Friday.

Discl: Not yet a holder of LYC but will see what happens at the start of the week.

[stevo1]

This article from the Australian

THE late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping once said: "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths".

Now his successors could add: "And we also have Australia's rare earths".

And that means China keeps its control of the global rare earths market - and allows it to call the tune on the future of a number of industries, including electronic and green technologies.

Rare earths came into their own with colour television - europium, for example, is necessary to have the colour red on your (TV and computer) screen; terbium produces the colour green. Dysprosium, for example, is necessary in the production of compact discs and can also be used in some nuclear control applications. Yttrium, among its many uses, has properties that allow it to be used in the transmission of acoustic energy. Batteries and magnets are other uses for rare earth elements.

But these elements have many military applications as well, which gives a political and strategic dimension to the announcement today that China Non-Ferrous Metal Mining will become the majority shareholder in Lynus Corp (LYC), a company which has the Mt Weld project in Western Australia, said to be the world’s richest undeveloped deposit of rare earths. The Chinese will commit a total of $500 million to Lynas, the first tranche being $US286 million to get Mt Weld into production at the rate of 10,500 tonnes a year of rare earth oxides.

It follows less that two months a deal which saw East China Exploration take a 25 per cent in the other main rare earths play, Arafura Resources (ARU). This company has rare earths at its Nolan’s project in the Northern Territory.

And both deals come against a background of China, which produces more than 90 per cent of the world’s rare earths, working to ensure that it maintains its stranglehold on those elements. Use foreign sources, and save our own, is Beijing’s policy. In February it again reduced the export quotas for its domestically produced rare earths: in 2004, Chinese miners were able to export 48,040 tonnes but this has been gradually reduced year by year so that 2009’s quota stands at 30,086 tonnes.

Apart from the military issue that has Washington concerned, The Times reported recently that China being what it called the “ultimate monopolist” in rare earth metals would allow that country control over the future of consumer electronics and green technology.

“The time may be rapidly approaching when it will be impossible for any company to produce a wind turbine or hybrid electric car (this) communist country," the paper's Asia correspondent wrote.

And now the chance of Australia to call the shots on its rare earths seemed to have gone for good.
Story Tools

[marknz88]

I ended up selling out on Friday for a small loss over all (ive been closing all my positions over the last week)

To me this has changed a lot of the fundamental reasons as to why I invested in LYC the first place.

I will continue to watch and see what happens with the aussie regulators and whether they change the majority hold stake before allowing the deal to go through.

Personally I do not think we will see another offer come through from the likes of Malaysia/Japan. Major reason for this is China's ability to manipulate the market and control prices. If one does occur then I will look to re-enter closer to production.

In the short term however I can see quite a bit of price volatility until the current deal is either given the yay or nay.

[suntboy]

Hi Mark
Other countries are still going to need Rare Earths and these particular ones will not be governed by the reduced export quota.
So in fact I believe that the fundamentals of the company still hold firm and the price will continue to rise as they become scarce.
The guy with the casting vote has woked in China and has an idea on how they operate so whilst he remains on the board with the casting vote all is sweet.
As far as price goes it will probably find a ceiling today and stay there until the deal goes thru

Welcome to Suntland

[Ponda]

Does anybody know why there would be so many sales of around 731 shares, it's not like there is a SPP or anything like that. It just seems a strange, random number to have.
Just pondering,

Thanks

[stevo1]

Does anybody know why there would be so many sales of around 731 shares, it's not like there is a SPP or anything like that. It just seems a strange, random number to have.
Just pondering,

Thanks

Bot buying/selling to accummulate/quit shares Hard to work out the real intent of the bot controller till after the fact.They can get really random with their no's.

[Ponda]

Thanks,

Whats 'Bot', by the way. It does seem strange. There seems to be five parcels that go through of 731 which is only about $300 worth and then after an period of time, another group goes through. You would think that the brokerage fees would add up. Not only that but the paperwork that it must generate would be a nightmare.
I also notice that ROC shares have the same practices.

Oh well each to their own.

Hope you have a good day.

[stevo1]

Thanks,

Whats 'Bot', by the way. It does seem strange. There seems to be five parcels that go through of 731 which is only about $300 worth and then after an period of time, another group goes through. You would think that the brokerage fees would add up. Not only that but the paperwork that it must generate would be a nightmare.
I also notice that ROC shares have the same practices.

Oh well each to their own.

Hope you have a good day.

Hi Ponda Bots refer to trades (using computer programes)because they can be used by broking houses the brokarage fees are "in house" (little or no cost).
The paperwork would also be computer gathered (little paperwork).
Hope that clarifies it a little for you.

[suntboy]

Interesting article I read today that the Rudd government may well come under pressure to not allow the deal to go thru due to the partner having joint ventures with
Mianmar and North Korea
I dont know that I would be rushing in to buy right now and as stated earlier I think the ceiling set today may well be it for a while
I Hope Not

Welcome to Suntland

[Snapper]

Interesting article I read today that the Rudd government may well come under pressure to not allow the deal to go thru due to the partner having joint ventures with
Mianmar and North Korea
I dont know that I would be rushing in to buy right now and as stated earlier I think the ceiling set today may well be it for a while
I Hope Not

Welcome to Suntland

Agreed. Share price is going to hinge on approval of this deal. The LYC CEO (who used to work with the boss of CNMM) said, however, that the Chinese offer was the only one on the table. I'd be quite amazed if someone else didn't pick it up if this deal fell through.

[Ponda]

LYC is having a great run at the moment.
4.3 million buyers against 2.4 million sellers.
Up nearly 10% today on good turnover

[stevo1]

There sure is an increase in volume and price going into close.

[Rif-Raf]

last week at 51.5c a good sign

[Lego_Man]

Hope the Rudd government puts the kibosh on this. Last thing we need is for China to control the world's supply of Rare Earths (oh and that would have the added bonus of allowing me to enter at a good price).:D

[stevo1]

Appears to me to have broken through tecnical resitance at 55.
Now at 59.5 on volume of 14.6 mill.

[shasta]

Appears to me to have broken through tecnical resitance at 55.
Now at 59.5 on volume of 14.6 mill.

Certainly looks like it, though 60c looks to be a resistance level

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=LYC&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=MACD&ra=2

[suntboy]

Gday Shasta
Im buggered if I know how you guys read those charts
It has gone thru .60 but my point is looking at that chart how can you call .60 the resistance level?
Why not 61 or 64 or more than likely 1.00
I see there was around 2 mill for sale at .65 but they have since been pulled

Onward and Upward

Welcome To Suntland

[STRAT]

Gday Shasta
Im buggered if I know how you guys read those charts
It has gone thru .60 but my point is looking at that chart how can you call .60 the resistance level?
Why not 61 or 64 or more than likely 1.00
I see there was around 2 mill for sale at .65 but they have since been pulled

Onward and Upward

Welcome To SuntlandOn that DB chart that line is just the high and may not be a resistance level. The resistance Shasta is refering to may be further back and off the chart.

[suntboy]

Cheers Strat
Clear as mud
In the years Ive had them they tend not to get range bound for too long
they move in big blobs which is why I like em
your brother wouldnt b called fender lol

welcome to Suntland

[STRAT]

your brother wouldnt b called fender lol
No, thats my baby ;)

[suntboy]

Might be an interesting day today
Late rally yesterday
3 million traded overnight
2 decent buy bids in already

welcome to Suntland

[lewinsky]

Not the interesting day I was hoping for.

[Snapper]

Big volume, big drop - I wonder how the overseas investment commission's going with their decision on LYC? Considering the amount of media coverage given to REEs and their strategic importance it wouldn't surprise me if the Chinese get another knockback.

[suntboy]

gday snapper
hard to see how they can knock it back after approving aru
after upsetting the chinese with the rio deal you would say it is a given.
if it was knocked back then i think it would show the real importance of rare earths

welcome to suntland

[Snapper]

Sure, it would really p$%^ the chinese off if they got knocked back. Maybe it hinges on whether the aussies think that China needs Oz more than Oz needs China.

[stevo1]

Although this is an ann from ARU it has equal relevance to LYC .
Well worth reading.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090818/pdf/31k4r6s8lp4r10.pdf

[stevo1]

Suspect that if Lyc breaks thru 60 price may well rocket.
Volume over the last few days is above average with rising price.
Anyone into TA who can confirm or otherwise?

[STRAT]

Suspect that if Lyc breaks thru 60 price may well rocket.
Volume over the last few days is above average with rising price.
Anyone into TA who can confirm or otherwise?Dunno about rocket but lookin pretty good Stevo.
Has been tracking sideways for a while but......
Vertical blue lines are buy signals on my chart

[stevo1]

Dunno about rocket but lookin pretty good Stevo.
Has been tracking sideways for a while but......
Vertical blue lines are buy signals on my chart

Thanks for that Strat .SP has broken 60cps so will be interesting to see what happens from here.

[stevo1]

12.8% gain not exactly soaring but respectable on the day.
How does that compute for future possible gains on a TA basis.

[STRAT]

12.8% gain not exactly soaring but respectable on the day.
How does that compute for future possible gains on a TA basis.Well you have to go back a long way to find any resistance Stevo and the intraday couldnt be much better. Low of the day at open. High of the day at close. Good volume. :D

Looks bloody good to me. Short of world markets tanking tonight it would be reasonable to suspect ( never expect ) a good day tomorrow :cool:

[STRAT]

I see resistance around 70c STRAT and the Price Gap left today would worry me if I was looking to Buy tomorrow, Price is due for a pullback now i.e return to the mean and this short term cycle is almost over, if I was looking to enter I would wait for that return to the mean to occur, buying now would prove a very risky entry in my opinion. Resistance could be found on open tomorrow with a close lower, ending this short term cycle. The over all Trend is very Strong with a ADX of 28 almost in that zone between 30-40 where a lot of price expansion occurs, so Its definitely worth holding through this small short term pullback cycle as a medium term, long term investor, but anyone wishing/needing to reduce their position to release cash for what ever reason tomorrow could be a good day to do that in my opinion/observation.

As you say markets can be unpredictable to a degree but thats my take.


Not advice.

AA
Thanks AA
Didnt notice the gap :o Might have to start paying for charts eh?:D
Stevo has been on this a while so didnt look at the ''buying tomorrow'' angle either.
Cant see the resistance at 70. Could you post it for me?

[suntboy]

gday aa
probably a good analysis on most companies but not lyc(that is not to say they wont retrace tomorrow altho that would be be profit takers and you would see that in the first half hour)
they have tracked sideways for a few months whilst their piles have rusted in the ground awaiting the chinese deal to be approved
the trading activity in the last 3 days has been reminescent of the good old days where the price moves 10% in a day .
but more imortantly the buyers are taking chunks of 100-150 thousand at a time
i spend 3 or 4 hours a day watching how the market depth of this company works and surely there will be an announcement soon as there is no other reason for the price to rise
im still a millionaire in waiting but now think it will be before xmas that they hit the dollar mark
gone seem to be the selling bots and there does not seem to be a lot of selling depth so onward and upward

footnote: i lived in oz for twenty years but the snakes still frighten the bejesus outta me
currently panning for gold in north east victoria(great holiday)

welcome to suntland

[STRAT]

Thanks AA.
Im glad you wrote resistance zone. That I could see. When I read 70 I thought I was missing something

[Huang Chung]

LYC holders might find this of some interest.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25956599-15023,00.html

[stevo1]

I not sure it matters exactly where resistance is found.

The most important thing is that the stock has been moving at a unsustainable pace i.e the short term trend line up ...is very steep ... unsustainable.... the price is moving in a parabolic way which is unsustainable... and their has been a large deviation from a Short term moving average of price.... the short term oscillators are indicating the top of a cycle is near, and of course the price gap which sometimes shows over excitement/enthusiasm which again is unsustainable (who's going to buy if everyone has already entered)

all short term clues, more applicable to someone wanting to Buy/Sell now rather than someone already holding.

Price could go up still, but its best to put probability's on you side when buying and wait for a pullback. (if anyone reading was thinking about it.) and anyone needing to reduce their position to release cash for what ever reason tomorrow could be a good day.

Just talking about the Short term cycle within the overall trend, looks good for holders... with a medium term view as mentioned above.



AA

SP has moved 7.6% at 71 atm has been up to 73.5cps.
Your TA is looking pretty much "on the money" AA at this stage for the short term .
Thanks for taking the time to share your analysis AA and Strat

[stevo1]

Asx query on why price has gone from 49cps on 18 august to intraday high today of 73.5cps


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090825/pdf/31k978qdg0hv7w.pdf

[cantab]

Hands up who is going to vote for CNMC being given 700m shares at 36c?

[stevo1]

This from the Business Spectator

China proposes guaranteed renewables market,

BEIJING - Chinese lawmakers have proposed draft legislation that would establish state guarantees for the purchase of renewable energy production, Xinhua reported late on Monday.

"The draft amendment to China's Renewable Energy Law, would, if approved, guarantee the direct purchase by the central government of an annual minimum of renewable energy for the state electricity grid, according to the Xinhua report issued. The report did not provide any timetable or details for the legislation.

China is preparing a renewable energy stimulus package, and plans to raise the proportion of renewable energy to 15 per cent of total energy consumption by 2020.

Currently, the buying of energy from renewable sources is left to state grids to negotiate with power producers.

The guarantees should benefit renewable energy companies including Suntech Power, Trina Solar and ReneSola. Wind firms Sinovel Wind, Goldwind Science and Technology and Dongfang Electric would also be potential beneficiaries.

The announcement comes after the news agency reported that lawmakers were discussing a new fund to develop renewable energy technologies.

The fund would be financed in part by surcharges levied on renewable energy prices, and would be used to support scientific and technological research, it said.

China's renewable energy stimulus package is expected to raise its solar power generation target for 2020 at least fivefold, although it will remain a much smaller player in China's power mix than wind and nuclear sources. "


REE s (and Lithum) would seem to me to be a key part of China's move towards renewable energy and future scientific and technological advancement.

[stevo1]

http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/tradingtriggers.htm

LYC at the moment - Reversal Bar.

http://i650.photobucket.com/albums/uu224/arranging/ScreenHunter_01Aug251753.gif
LYC Closed at its Intra-Day Low. Close is below Open

http://i650.photobucket.com/albums/uu224/arranging/lyc_ax25may09_to_25sep09.png

Common Types of Reversal Bars ---> http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/tradingtriggers.htm

Only take action with Reversal Bars when they Occur in a Over Brought Market, usually following price expansion, if required, confirmation can be taken the next day when/if the reversal bars low gets broken, see purple line below reversal bar in chart, stop loss (trailing stop) at bars low for, action on confirmation.

Also read about Pin Bar Reversals ---> http://www.scribd.com/doc/192645/Pin-Bars-Introduction Scroll down

AA

AA seems pretty much to be tracking on your TA.

this is part of an article on REE s from TELEGRAPH.co.uk

No replacement has been found for neodymium that enhances the power of magnets at high heat and is crucial for hard-disk drives, wind turbines, and the electric motors of hybrid cars. Each Toyota Prius uses 25 pounds of rare earth elements. Cerium and lanthanum are used in catalytic converters for diesel engines. Europium is used in lasers.

Blackberries, iPods, mobile phones, plams TVs, navigation systems, and air defence missiles all use a sprinkling of rare earth metals. They are used to filter viruses and bacteria from water, and cleaning up Sarin gas and VX nerve agents.

Arafura, Mountain Pass, and Lynas Corp in Australia, will be able to produce some 50,000 tonnes of rare earth metals by the mid-decade but that is not enough to meet surging world demand.

The full article appears on this link

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6082464/World-faces-hi-tech-crunch-as-China-eyes-ban-on-rare-metal-exports.html

and is well worth a read.

[stevo1]

The decision on LYC control appears imminent.There is a lot more understanding of REEs and their place than previously.Good article in todays Australian,worth a read.
Suspect today there may be "interesting " moves in sp.








http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25992667-5005200,00.html

[stevo1]

No interesting sp movement !!!
finished the same as it started.
FIRB seems to be leak proof--- just pundits trading with each other for sp to end at the same as the start.
Next week may prove more interesting ???

[stevo1]

A ruling from FIRB expected today /tomorrow (or another extention of time?) for CNMC taking control of majority 51.26% stake and funding Mt Weld mine and Malaysian processing plant to completion.

All this with a continuing backdrop of vastly increased awareness of the absolute essential nature of REEs to advancing technologies , key to electrification,green manufacture,military etc.

this extract from Reuters

"Worldwide demand for rare earths, covering 15 entries on the periodic table of elements, is expected to exceed supply by some 40,000 tonnes annually in several years unless major new production sources are developed. One promising U.S. source is a rare earths mine slated to reopen in California by 2012.

Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make the high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Focus, as well as in generators for wind turbines"


full article here
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE57U02B20090831.

[cantab]

Concerns raised over China's 'rare earth' dominance

http://business.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/concerns-raised-over-chinas-rare-earth-dominance-20090901-f6xw.html

[cantab]

Announcement - FIRB decision not yet made so new 30 day period to expire early October, Lynas well advanced with interim financing, has enough funds to last until end October.

China to limit rare earth exports

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news...0902-f8an.html

[tobo]

Absolute A,
That was a higher high. Perhaps we'll see a higher low if the approval comes through.
How much of this drop is as a result of approval nervousness (through its delay), I wonder?

Tobo
LT hold

[Rif-Raf]

What do you think the SP outcomes will be for decision?

How many white knights have come forwrd and are in the queue as a fall back?

A wild ride ahead methinks

[stevo1]

FIRB dont /cant/wont/ dont want to make a decision.
Which to me says that the decision will NOT go through in its present form.
What this does do is allow time for another bid to be launched however under the terms of the agreement LYC CAN NOT lobby for another offer.
However because the CNMC deal must be approved by a special meeting of shareholders after FIRB approval of their offer (another offer indeed if there is one) would come after that.
LYC is running its funds down in the meantime(although they are putting contingencies in place for interim funding)
Another month to wait . Will be velly itelesting to see to how this affects sp over the coming month.

Tend to agree with you Rif-Raf on the ride ahead

LYC release here
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090902/pdf/31khyswjfzfrgc.pdf

[cantab]

http://business.smh.com.au/business/focus-on-rare-earths-miner-after-chinese-comments-20090903-f9re.html

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26020744-5005200,00.html

[tobo]

whew! 60 to 68 cents in one day. (60 gives us another higher low).

But I think we are going to swing violently about for a while, in response to the SENTIMENT around the FIRB approval expectations, and expectations around the possibility of another competing bid.

FIRB decision delayed another month from now, lots of media attention, and the price jumps over 10% in one day.

Could also indicate we might (or might not) get some price plunges (giving people further entry point)

I hold a reasonable amount but could be tempted to accumulate a bit more on weakness. This is in strict contrast with the idea of profit-taking on highs (which can't be done willy-nilly by those for whom this is an investment (tax-wise)

ToBo

[stevo1]

whew! 60 to 68 cents in one day. (60 gives us another higher low).

But I think we are going to swing violently about for a while, in response to the SENTIMENT around the FIRB approval expectations, and expectations around the possibility of another competing bid.

FIRB decision delayed another month from now, lots of media attention, and the price jumps over 10% in one day.

Could also indicate we might (or might not) get some price plunges (giving people further entry point)

I hold a reasonable amount but could be tempted to accumulate a bit more on weakness. This is in strict contrast with the idea of profit-taking on highs (which can't be done willy-nilly by those for whom this is an investment (tax-wise)

ToBo


Seems the only violent swing is up!

TA may look overbought????

[stevo1]

It looks to me as though the CNMC offer hasn't got a snowballs chance in hell of succeeding in the offered form with share price now at 83cps and the Chinese offer at 36cps.

Even if it did get FIRB approval cant see shareholders approving at that price.
More likely now that another offer will come in at a much higher price with FIRB decision which ever way it goes.

[stevo1]

At 84c looks over brought, some resistance at that level too, will likely pullback now imo.

AA

You are right on the money with that call AA (once again).
However overnight in US LYC closed at US72cps.=($A.833).
Would it seem logical to see LYC up to 84 today?or does TA go against that?

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=LYSCF.PK

[tobo]

ARU and ALK (and even NAV) are each still up today. All have smaller increases than yesturday, but LYC is the only one to have hit resistance and dropped. They were all moving in concert...

[stevo1]

ARU and ALK (and even NAV) are each still up today. All have smaller increases than yesturday, but LYC is the only one to have hit resistance and dropped. They were all moving in concert...

Hi TOBO yep here is the wild ride,
I find it a bit odd considering the US close .
TA may have changed?

[stevo1]

ARU and ALK (and even NAV) are each still up today. All have smaller increases than yesturday, but LYC is the only one to have hit resistance and dropped. They were all moving in concert...

Looks like the concert has recommenced LYC trading just under 12 mnth highs.

[tobo]

yes, was forming a nice step uptrending channel - 3rd leg up, but looks like it hit resistance, set a couple of weeks ago, but as you rightly point out, that resistance level goes back to 12 months ago.

what will be very interesting to see is if the strong ARU momentum will be enough to carry LYC through that resistance.

Unfortunately that 3rd leg up was shorter than the previous two, but nowhere near breaking the up trend line.
_______________________________
JIMHO, DYOR, What do I know...
Held down and up that roller coaster.

[stevo1]

yes, was forming a nice step uptrending channel - 3rd leg up, but looks like it hit resistance, set a couple of weeks ago, but as you rightly point out, that resistance level goes back to 12 months ago.

what will be very interesting to see is if the strong ARU momentum will be enough to carry LYC through that resistance.

Unfortunately that 3rd leg up was shorter than the previous two, but nowhere near breaking the up trend line.
_______________________________
JIMHO, DYOR, What do I know...
Held down and up that roller coaster.

Suspect the uptrend line is broken tobo.reasonable volume too.
Is it overbought at 87.5cps?

[STRAT]

Suspect the uptrend line is broken tobo.reasonable volume too.
Is it overbought at 87.5cps?What line would that be Stevo? All looks like a pretty picture from here :D

and not over bought yet

[stevo1]

What line would that be Stevo? All looks like a pretty picture from here :D

and not over bought yet

The year high Strat {is that a line).Was actually referring back to AA assessment of 84cps seeming overbought

[tobo]

Nearly overbought but not quite.
Broken the 12 month resistance line
Still uptrending (black line)

and still we wait

[STRAT]

The year high Strat {is that a line).Was actually referring back to AA assessment of 84cps seeming overboughtAny mark that is longer than it is wide is a line I reckon Stevo :D but its not a trend line. The support line one could draw in at around that price from Dec07/Jan 08 is what I think you are refering to. How significant that is being so long ago I dont know. Companies change a lot in 18 months so personally I wouldnt apply too much significance to it. As to overbought. Who cares as long as it keeps going up. It could stay like that for a while.

[tobo]

...
.... Who cares as long as it keeps going up.....

which does seem to be doing.
90.5c at time of post

ToBo - Holding LT

[tobo]

AA, nice summation, and good ideas on timing buys.

Oomph - Trading halt - pending "update concerning the Company's proposed transaction with CNMM

[Lego_Man]

Deal terminated.

Glad i didnt buy lately, though it would have been a 4 bagger had i had the funds to purchase earlier this year when i wanted to.

I'm going to buy in once this thing has been beaten back to hell.

[stevo1]

Deal terminated.

Glad i didnt buy lately, though it would have been a 4 bagger had i had the funds to purchase earlier this year when i wanted to.

I'm going to buy in once this thing has been beaten back to hell.

I wouldnt count on the sp being beaten back to hell Lego.

The decision by FIRB not unexpected, the Chinese walking away is somewhat of a surprise to me BUT with the amount of publicity REEs have had in the last 4 months I would expect there to be other bidders especially considering western governments commitment to green projects.

Certainly will be velly intelesting days ahead which ever way the sp goes.

Subsequent trading in US (pink sheets) dropped 26% on 3.2 million shares
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=LYSCF.PK
So logic would suggest a similar fall on ASX.

Guess the trick here is to gauge where the bottom is (hell) if you want in.

[Snapper]

Sold at $0.41 just after the deal was announced (been kicking myself ever since!) but was hoping the deal wouldn't go through so I could get back in at a reasonable price. Be very interesting to see what will happen today, will be looking at an entry point in the early 40s so who knows.

[stevo1]

Sold at $0.41 just after the deal was announced (been kicking myself ever since!) but was hoping the deal wouldn't go through so I could get back in at a reasonable price. Be very interesting to see what will happen today, will be looking at an entry point in the early 40s so who knows.

All theory now snapper trading halt
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090925/pdf/31kxxfj0h9yhk6.pdf

[Snapper]

Methinks they have someone else lined up already. Don't think I'll be getting any cheap shares anytime soon.

[stevo1]

1 for 1 non renouncable issue at 45cps.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090929/pdf/31l0gsbbf1syrf.pdf

investor presentation

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090929/pdf/31l0gzgxnfw43n.pdf


and full year accounts

[tobo]

45c should do the trick

[stevo1]

45c should do the trick

The interesting thing here will be where the sp goes in the short term.

I intend to take up 1 for 1.

Is TA any indicator of the short term price?
Probably not as it is a reactive indicator.

So market seniment will rule initally until I guess TA gives traders some indication.
Would anyone who is into TA care to comment on future direction?

[stevo1]

Things moving rapaidly at LYC with the ann that they have successfully completed capitol raising form instos of a committed $285million

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20091001/pdf/31l2hmqqc3fyr9.pdf

From the rapidity of dealing after Chinese failure it seems there was lots going on behind the scene during CNMC 's offer

[Phaedrus]

The interesting thing here will be where the sp goes in the short term. Is TA any indicator of the short term price? Probably not as it is a reactive indicator. So market seniment will rule initally until I guess TA gives traders some indication.There are many leading technical indicators, Steve! You are wondering about short-term movement - take a look at this candlestick chart. See yesterday's "Shooting Star" candle? These are a well-known Bearish Reversal pattern. This is an ideal example, in that there is a gap between the real bodies of the last 2 candles. Candles with a long upper shadow are circled here. Most have associated gaps as marked by light blue diamonds.
It is easy to see that such formations commonly mark significant short-term bearish reversals and the odds are that the same thing will happen here.
Longterm, LYC is in an uptrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/LYC101.gif

[stevo1]

There are many leading technical indicators, Steve! You are wondering about short-term movement - take a look at this candlestick chart. See yesterday's "Shooting Star" candle? These are a well-known Bearish Reversal pattern. This is an ideal example, in that there is a gap between the real bodies of the last 2 candles. Candles with a long upper shadow are circled here. Most have associated gaps as marked by light blue diamonds.
It is easy to see that such formations commonly mark significant short-term bearish reversals and the odds are that the same thing will happen here.
Longterm, LYC is in an uptrend.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/LYC101.gif

Thanks for posting that P unfortunately I am unable to view your chart(just appears as a red X,have tried allowing popup ,right click to show picture,but no go).I can see AA's charts when he posts them.
Great to hear that LYC still in uptrend.
Large volume this morning (21.6MILL)

[stevo1]

Sold at $0.41 just after the deal was announced (been kicking myself ever since!) but was hoping the deal wouldn't go through so I could get back in at a reasonable price. Be very interesting to see what will happen today, will be looking at an entry point in the early 40s so who knows.

Snapper dont know where the bottom is here .But your entry point is looking closer if you have a mind to enter.
Would imagine that LYC uptrend is broken.(I am unable to see Phaedrus,s charts).

[Phaedrus]

You guys had noticed that yesterday's candle was a long-legged Doji hadn't you? (Often found at turning points yadda yadda yadda)

[cantab]

You guys had noticed that yesterday's candle was a long-legged Doji hadn't you? (Often found at turning points yadda yadda yadda)

So is it turning up or down?

[Phaedrus]

Up. The previous chart showed where it was turning down.

[cantab]

Up. The previous chart showed where it was turning down.

Thanks for that. I'm soon to take up all my rights and hoping that this is a good long term thing.

The institutions were able to sell their entitlements yesterday and as expected there was a lot of selling pressure.

[Lego_Man]

Turning up - but for how long?

Good for a shortish term correction trade.

[cantab]

Retail entitlement offer subscribed to 77%, fully underwritten for $170m

Pretty good support considering it was 1 for 1

[Nevl]

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,658977,00.html

Ok not a mineral stock follower but there are a lot of experts here. So which stocks have the best access to rare earth minerals outside of China? Looks like China wants to put their western competitors out of business and get control of the worlds high tech industries(doh)?

[cantab]

The last directors notice was pretty positive I thought.

All the money in the bank now, $450m less expenses, and no debt.

[Snapper]

At a market cap of just over $900 mill they're going to have to start generating some fairly serious coin when they get into production to justify the share price. As I recall they had about 70% of production spoken for in off-take agreements but this was for the most sought-after elements.

I've sold out of Lynas but would be interested in getting back in if I had some idea of cashflow and profit forecasts - anyone run the ruler over them since the cap raise?

[stevo1]

At a market cap of just over $900 mill they're going to have to start generating some fairly serious coin when they get into production to justify the share price. As I recall they had about 70% of production spoken for in off-take agreements but this was for the most sought-after elements.

I've sold out of Lynas but would be interested in getting back in if I had some idea of cashflow and profit forecasts - anyone run the ruler over them since the cap raise?


Hi snapper i got no idea of projected cashflow/ profit .But i believe REE basket at Mt Weld is US$15.62 now.i would expect the SP to move upwards as refinery in Malaysia moves towards completion and production in early 3rd quarter 2011,still some time off possibilities of cost blowout ,delays
ADR ann here
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100517/pdf/31qc9549kxvl1y.pdf

[COLIN]

Now stirring out of its slumbers, again. OBV, RSI, MACD, Stochastic and OBV indicators all look healthy to me. (Phaedrus is going to be astonished about me introducing these T/A measures, as this is relatively virgin territory for me, but I have been doing some tentative exploration work - using the ft.com facilities - and am hoping he will not shoot me down in flames!)

[COLIN]

Now stirring out of its slumbers, again. OBV, RSI, MACD, Stochastic and OBV indicators all look healthy to me. (Phaedrus is going to be astonished about me introducing these T/A measures, as this is relatively virgin territory for me, but I have been doing some tentative exploration work - using the ft.com facilities - and am hoping he will not shoot me down in flames!)

Gee, looks like I might have made a valid conclusion with my T/A experimentation!
It really works, guys and gals! Pity is that I didn't buy more, of course. Not that I'm greedy, I just like a lot!
Cheers.

[Phaedrus]

FT charts are pretty good. They are one of the best free charting sites and offer useful things like trendlines and indicators with user defined infinitely variable parameters. All the indicators that I regard as essential are there, plus a few more. I'll be interested in how long you stick with the MACD, Colin - I gave up on it decades ago. It is quite a popular indicator though, for all that. Backtesting it against LYC since mid 2007 gives the following results :- 27 trades. 8 wins. 19 losses. At one stage it gave 8 consecutive losing trades.
I'm quite happy to shoot the MACD indicator down in flames, Colin, but not you. I applaud your new endeavours and may perhaps be able to help you from time to time.

[stevo1]

Certainly seems to have sparked up.The chinese ann about reducing export quotas seems to have lifted sp.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100709/pdf/31r7vh3ygwwyqr.pdf

From a TA perspective when will the sp be overbought?

[COLIN]

FT charts are pretty good. They are one of the best free charting sites and offer useful things like trendlines and indicators with user defined infinitely variable parameters. All the indicators that I regard as essential are there, plus a few more. I'll be interested in how long you stick with the MACD, Colin - I gave up on it decades ago. It is quite a popular indicator though, for all that. Backtesting it against LYC since mid 2007 gives the following results :- 27 trades. 8 wins. 19 losses. At one stage it gave 8 consecutive losing trades.
I'm quite happy to shoot the MACD indicator down in flames, Colin, but not you. I applaud your new endeavours and may perhaps be able to help you from time to time.

Thanks, Phaedrus, and I will keep your offer in mind.
Obviously the MACD indicator is one to approach with caution.

[COLIN]

From a TA perspective when will the sp be overbought?

Well the Slow Stochastic appears to have now moved into the Overbought Zone but I still feel a bit like a child who has been handed a shotgun for the first time and told to go out and shoot rabbits - so I would prefer Phaedrus to comment on this question, if he wouldn't mind? Thanks, P.

[Phaedrus]

From a TA perspective when will the sp be overbought?Commonly used thresholds are an RSI over 70 or a Stochastic over 80. It is important to realise that "overbought" is a purely relative term and whether a particular stock is overbought or not will depend on the period used as well as the threshold.

Using the right tool is important. It's fine for Colin to go off shooting rabbits with a shotgun but an M16 or a paintball gun would be inappropriate, just as his shotgun would be unsuitable for deer stalking. You need to be clear as to your objectives. Are you a trend-follower that wants to keep out of trading ranges? Do you want to monitor the trading range with a view to buying any breakout? Do you want to actively trade the trading range? These very different objectives require different tools, different weapons.

First off, LYC was in a downtrend and therefore needed to be monitored by trend indicators such as the trendline shown here. See how the RSI oscillator fired off a string of misleading "buy" signals as the downtrend progressed. LYC kept reaching "OverSold" levels all the way down, but this was only to be expected and meant little or nothing.

LYC then reversed and went into an uptrend. Similarly, this required monitoring by trend indicators rather than an oscillator like the RSI(14) which fired off a string of misleading "sell" signals as LYC periodically became "overbought" as the uptrend continued - again, just as you would expect. Now, oscillators can be "detuned" to make them less sensitive and more useful for monitoring trends by increasing their time period. This is what has been done here with the Stochastic oscillator. Normally used with a 5 day time period, the Sto is a very fast, very active indicator. Used with a long time period such as 180 days as shown here, it acts a little more like a trend indicator.

Having fired off multiple Sell signals, LYC then went into a trading range. Now the use of trend indicators is inappropriate and oscillators become really useful. This chart is not optimised for range-trading, but nevertheless there are useful signals generated. (green arrows are buy signals, red arrows sell signals) See how the RSI(14) works well, but needs a shorter period to be more profitable. See how the Slow stochastic gave a string of "buy" signals suitable for those wanting to accumulate LYC. See how it was no good for trading, though. No sell signals were generated - this would require a shorter period.

So, Stevo, that was an interesting question, but the answer (LYC is technically "OverBought" right now) is not all that important. To be "overbought" does not make a stock a "sell" - or a buy.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/LYC716.gif

[stevo1]

Thanks for your wisdom on that Phaedrus it is somewhat lost on me as there are several stocks I am in a hold mode on.Though not in love with them the underlying story is just too compelling for me.Incredibly useful info for trading many thanks for the reply.

[stevo1]

Starting to gain momentum the penny is starting to drop just how essential and valuable REE s are to the future.

[COLIN]

Starting to gain momentum the penny is starting to drop just how essential and valuable REE s are to the future.
Yes, Steve, and all this gives me added confidence as to using T/A indicators. But, being already of a "certain age", I don't think I have enough years left to become an expert. I did notice from one of Phaedrus' postings (above) that he mentions having abandoned use of one of the indicators "decades ago", which seems to indicate that he has been a mighty long time in the T/A game; thus his tutorials are well worth effort to try and follow.

The main characteristic I fall back on these days (apart from the trend graphs) is the relative buy/sell strength of any share I am assessing. It has proved a most fruitful tool, often forcing me to abandon favourite stocks that I have clung to for too long; but the rewards can be great if the proceeds are redirected into strongly supported risers.

[stevo1]

Yes, Steve, and all this gives me added confidence as to using T/A indicators. But, being already of a "certain age", I don't think I have enough years left to become an expert. I did notice from one of Phaedrus' postings (above) that he mentions having abandoned use of one of the indicators "decades ago", which seems to indicate that he has been a mighty long time in the T/A game; thus his tutorials are well worth effort to try and follow.

The main characteristic I fall back on these days (apart from the trend graphs) is the relative buy/sell strength of any share I am assessing. It has proved a most fruitful tool, often forcing me to abandon favourite stocks that I have clung to for too long; but the rewards can be great if the proceeds are redirected into strongly supported risers.


I would imagine at the current SP your TA indicators would be looking good Colin,I expect the SP to go a lot higher than this and I base that purely on the LYC product and company and its place into technology of the future (now).I should imagine it is a great trading opportunity perhaps not at current SP but on pullbacks.

[stevo1]

Still moving up,I am very surprised there seems to be not that much interest on sharetrader in this stock I would have thought that a lot of people would have been all over LYC as a short term trade.I am holding long term.High so far today 91.5 cps

[COLIN]

Still moving up,I am very surprised there seems to be not that much interest on sharetrader in this stock I would have thought that a lot of people would have been all over LYC as a short term trade.I am holding long term.High so far today 91.5 cps

I share your puzzlement, Steve. A number of what I would regard as experienced subscribers seem to get fixated on trying to whip along a few very reluctant nags (such as CFE, VPE, etc.) while sleek fillies such as LYC shoot past them. (I'm going to get into trouble here, I can see it coming!)

The On Balance Volume chart for LYC speaks volumes (hope I can be excused the pun!).

[tobo]

I've been in this long term for a few years (since the $1 a share days), got out, later got back in, went through the funding agonies, doubled up at the 45c cash raising.
Used to have ARU too, but missed that one's recent runup.

It's fun when something with such overpowering fundamentals finally runs.

[macduffy]

Well done, tobo!

I'm still kicking myself for missing this stellar run by LYC, having had half an eye on it since it first started to move from around 55c.

All the news is positive for rare earths and LYC appears to be best placed of the Aussie RE companies to get into production. It passes all my primitive TA tests as a Buy and yet I stood around like a stuffed doll while it made its run. The question now is, do I leave it or chase it?

[stevo1]

Well done, tobo!

I'm still kicking myself for missing this stellar run by LYC, having had half an eye on it since it first started to move from around 55c.

All the news is positive for rare earths and LYC appears to be best placed of the Aussie RE companies to get into production. It passes all my primitive TA tests as a Buy and yet I stood around like a stuffed doll while it made its run. The question now is, do I leave it or chase it?


Thats always a hard one Mac and TA could be the best method for making an informed judgment to entry HOWEVER the following may also add weight or otherwise to your decision.

1The REE basket price has soared to $31.94 up 98% since June 30th.

2 China is continually limiting exports of REE s.

3The profile of REES is becoming widely recognised and understood for its strategic importance and necessiaty into the future.

4LYC have stated they will be looking at processing others REE s thru the Malaysian plant.

5.The registry is wide open .

6.LYC will have first to market advantage of REE production outside of China.

7.NO debt and fully funded into stage 1 production.

Of course even with all that the usual risks would apply such as cost overruns ,REE price collapse,market meltdown and any out of left field possabilities

[Bobby_Fischer]

Bought some last week. My first foray into mining. I like the fundamentals and rapidly increasing REE prices which seem to be based on a reappraisal of the market situation (squeeze on chinese supply which accounts for 90-95% of world output, run down of inventory, an appreciation of the strategic importance of REE resources, and growing demand from high tech industries, especially new green technologies). Meaning prices may be staging a long term move to a higher level. Lynas look set to become the only non-chinese supplier of significance for some time to come - possibly 3-5 years. Due to the high concentration of their ore-body Lynas will also have a long term advantage from significanly lower production costs than competitiors. As Steve notes, they also have all the cash they need to get into production.

During my due dilligence I came across http://www.raremetalblog.com, which sems to have a log of intelligent commentary from well informed contributors.

[Dr_Who]

I am also kicking myself for missing out on ARU and LYC when the sp was weak.

[lewinsky]

Steve01

I have split my holdings between LYC and GXY.
My only concern with LYC is the market cap and the number of shares on issue.
The GXY presentation on the 2nd June is worth spending some time on.

LEW

[COLIN]

Jeepers, look at all the buyers stacked up above last night's closing price of 95!

[COLIN]

Jeepers, look at all the buyers stacked up above last night's closing price of 95!
Well, looks like their requirements were all met, at lower prices, by eager profit-takers. Once these short-term (overnight) traders are mostly out of the way we will see a more normal and steady upwards progression, I believe.

[stevo1]

Well, looks like their requirements were all met, at lower prices, by eager profit-takers. Once these short-term (overnight) traders are mostly out of the way we will see a more normal and steady upwards progression, I believe.

ADR s at AU 85cps equivelant overnight http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?symbol=US%3ALYSDY.

possible entry for some or will it go lower?

[stevo1]

Lyc hits 100.5 cps did you get in Macduffy?DR who?

[COLIN]

Lyc hits 100.5 cps did you get in Macduffy?DR who?

High 5, Steve! We've done it! Hit the ton!
Looks like there is still strong buying interest, too.

[Bobby_Fischer]

Apparently JP Morgan have upgraded their target to au$1.35.

[macduffy]

Lyc hits 100.5 cps did you get in Macduffy?DR who?

Sadly, no.

Now decided to regard this as "one that got away".

Well done to holders.

[Jay]

Sadly, no.

Now decided to regard this as "one that got away".

Well done to holders.


same here - watching(ed) it - going up & up & up & ...

[COLIN]

same here - watching(ed) it - going up & up & up & ...

Sorry to hear, Jay and McD.

"He who hesitates is lost." But the other side of that coin, of course, is "Make haste slowly." The trick is to know when to apply which. However, I have found that most rewards come from "following the trend." As Phaedrus often reminds us, "the market rules."

[stevo1]

Sadly, no.

Now decided to regard this as "one that got away".

Well done to holders.


Macduffy this may well have a stack of upside to it yet.if you are TA trading you may be able to still do well from LYC in the coming weeks.

[NoVice]

Well after an incredible ride I'm out @ $1.05.
Bought in @ 0.13 in March 09, sold 1/2 in Sept.09 @ $0.80 & the balance in Oct.09 @ $0.69. Because they backdated the elegibility date for the SPP I bought back the last parcel for $0.45 & now I've sold them for $1.05. Wish I could tell more stories like this one ...... ADY on the other hand :-( eewwww now I need another Jim Beam

[stevo1]

Well after an incredible ride I'm out @ $1.05.
Bought in @ 0.13 in March 09, sold 1/2 in Sept.09 @ $0.80 & the balance in Oct.09 @ $0.69. Because they backdated the elegibility date for the SPP I bought back the last parcel for $0.45 & now I've sold them for $1.05. Wish I could tell more stories like this one ...... ADY on the other hand :-( eewwww now I need another Jim Beam

Well done NoVice still holding mine will take considerably more before I am even tempted.hoped you had stacks of them and made heaps

[NoVice]

Well done NoVice still holding mine will take considerably more before I am even tempted.hoped you had stacks of them and made heaps

I only had 60k shares unfortunately but I'm happy so that's all that matters. I'll be keeping an eye on LYC & will come back in a flash if the right opportunity presents itself. I'm quietly building a bigger stake in ALk (av. $0.38 so far) & I'm also interested in NTU. Unfortunately I didn't know about them until LYC bought in which i think is a VERY good move on LYCs part. It will be interesting to see what the NTU TH is about.

[stevo1]

Heavy rare earth rescource 3 fold increase http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100906/pdf/31sbp8ym8zg6ty.pdf

Shareprice lifts 8.8% to 117 cps I believe there is still a lot more upside here on fundamentals

[NoVice]

Heavy rare earth rescource 3 fold increase http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100906/pdf/31sbp8ym8zg6ty.pdf

Shareprice lifts 8.8% to 117 cps I believe there is still a lot more upside here on fundamentals


This is great news for LYC SH. The dysprosium & yttrium grades are encouraging. Always happens after you have sold out of the company :-)
Knowing they had their own HREEs I am curious why LYC took a stake in NTU - maybe they had "reasons" to thwart ECE.

[tobo]

double figure % increase for all the RE stocks yesturday - effectively no increase at all for the ann of the increased LYC resource.
Unlucky timing? Or will that flow through in coming days? Probably not. The market seems not to be able to add 2 pieces of good news together.
Mind you, LYC has some serious price momentum going atm.

[peat]

http://www.economist.com/node/16944034?story_id=16944034&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe

China restricts exports of some obscure but important commodities


this article may generate some more interest...

[stevo1]

http://www.economist.com/node/16944034?story_id=16944034&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe

China restricts exports of some obscure but important commodities


this article may generate some more interest...

Nothing new in this article but certainly the profile and importance of REEs is becoming better understood by larger numbers of people and there are very few companies to invest in for those interested in REEs .Lynas appears to have the first to market advantage outside of China and a great deposit and a great processing facility under construction in Malayasia.
Fundermentally looks very good into the future notwithstandig market meltdown,cost overruns ,or out of left field events .

[stevo1]

Things shaping up very well for LYC with this ANN http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100913/pdf/31sgw8h7v3tr16.pdf
Letter of offer for A$30 mill of working capitol facilities (unsecured).Both MT Weld and Malaysia processing facilities are on schedule and within budget .SP now at 134

[Snapper]

This is going to heat things up - China has just banned the sale of REs to Japan in retaliation for a boundary dispute. Long term I think that China has just shot itself in the foot but in the short term it'll be great for the RE miners. I'm kicking myself that I sold out of LYC.

[COLIN]

This is going to heat things up - China has just banned the sale of REs to Japan in retaliation for a boundary dispute. Long term I think that China has just shot itself in the foot but in the short term it'll be great for the RE miners. I'm kicking myself that I sold out of LYC.

Thanks for "unearthing" (!) that bit of info, Snapper. I wondered why there had been a bit of a kick-up in the sp today, following some weakness in recent days.

Am still a happy holder.

[tobo]

weakness is just consolidation (traders taking profits). No biggie.

This morning I heard on BBCworld that China wants to be the leader in electric car production.
And get this, it is going to insist on being given electric car technology for free, in return for them not shutting Japan/Erope/US out from selling them into Chinese market

[lewinsky]

To all LYC holders.

Enjoy a nice cold beer tonight.

I haven't got my head around why the big re-rate.

But I like it. :)

[COLIN]

To all LYC holders.

Enjoy a nice cold beer tonight.

I haven't got my head around why the big re-rate.

But I like it. :)

Yes, "cool" is the word, isn't it. Seems that anything to do with REE excites a lot of interest these days. I see that GGG, which I have also held for a while, is also enjoying a resurgence of popularity - Greenland is purported to have oodles of the stuff, somewhere.

[stevo1]

To all LYC holders.

Enjoy a nice cold beer tonight.

I haven't got my head around why the big re-rate.

But I like it. :)

Hi Lew ,I think the japanese stimulis package is helping also Deutsche bank have a buy recommendation and target $1.8.
LYC have the potential to be the BHP of rare earths provided they do not get taken out at some stage >
I hope some of you traders out there have been doing well from this runup
11.2% rise today.

[stevo1]

It looks to me that REE s and LYC in particular (on FA) is looking to go ballistic (any TA people williing to comment),
I am not trying to ramp this share as I intend holding into the forseeable future)but see it as a possiblity (on the back of a large amount of research)and the current situation gaining huge momentum and the risk factor reducing.
This from Business Spectator
"The market for these rare earths is only about $1.4 billion a year so there is a long way to go before China’s position is another Saudi. But they are essential to most of the world’s manufactured products where demand is growing.

About 97 per cent of the world’s rare earth capacity is in China, including the essential refineries which western countries have tended to shun because of environmental objections."
full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/China-rare-earths-Australia-exports-mining-Lynas-W-pd20101008-9ZQKA?OpenDocument&src=sph
The political and stratigic implications are becoming increasingly apparent and publicised.
The biggest advantage besides the richest deposit in the world for LYC is the ability to refine that deposit which is the key to any REE rescoure.
Anyway for those interested do your own researh and this is my opinion only .

[COLIN]

LYC also continuing to benefit from the rare earths "scramble". (See also threads for GGG and ARU).

[peat]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11581288?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[Gasbox]

Hi All
Good article here, “Lynas is in a good position because it signed a number of” sales agreements, Andrew Sullivan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andrew%20Sullivan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja), an analyst at BBY Ltd., said from Sydney. “It definitely has first-mover advantage for Western or non-Chinese rare earths users that are looking to diversify. The same could be said about Molycorp. It’s got agreements in place for quite a bit of its production.”

Will be looking for weakness to get aboard, have missed the boat a bit however.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/molycorp-lynas-may-add-to-gains-as-china-restricts-supply-of-rare-earths.html

[COLIN]

Hi All
Good article here, “Lynas is in a good position because it signed a number of” sales agreements, Andrew Sullivan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andrew%20Sullivan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja), an analyst at BBY Ltd., said from Sydney. “It definitely has first-mover advantage for Western or non-Chinese rare earths users that are looking to diversify. The same could be said about Molycorp. It’s got agreements in place for quite a bit of its production.”

Will be looking for weakness to get aboard, have missed the boat a bit however.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/molycorp-lynas-may-add-to-gains-as-china-restricts-supply-of-rare-earths.html

Welcome aboard, Gasbox. I'm sure you will enjoy participating here.

Yes, LYC is well down the track compared with all the other wannabes.

[bermuda]

Welcome aboard, Gasbox. I'm sure you will enjoy participating here.

Yes, LYC is well down the track compared with all the other wannabes.
Colin,
I am watching this space. Even spent $US300 on a free USA trial. This is world politics at its worst. " I have it, you haven't". The Chinese rule the World. Get you kids to learn Mandarin.

[Gasbox]

Global demand for rare earths will increase by an average of 9 percent a year to 2014, led by greater use of the materials in magnets and batteries, Lynas Corp. Ltd. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LYC:AU) said today.
Total demand for the group of elements, used in everything from industrial magnets, breaking systems of Toyota Motor Corp. Prius cars and flat screen TVs, is set to grow to 190,100 metric tons in 2014, from an expected 136,100 tons this year, Sydney- based rare earths developer Lynas said in a presentation.
China, producer of more than 90 percent of the world’s rare earths, reduced its second-half export quota for the minerals by 72 percent in July and is now further restricting exports, according to industry participants.
Global supply would only grow to 170,000 tons by 2014 according to company estimates, Lynas (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LYC:AU) said, leaving the market with a 20,000-ton shortfall. The company is developing the A$550 million ($547 million) Mount Weld rare earths project in Australia.
Price Rises
The price of lanthanum oxide, used in hybrid car batteries among other applications, has risen almost sevenfold to $50 a kilogram, compared with the second quarter this year, according to Lynas’ website.

[stevo1]

LYC sp down to 148.5 looks to me like the big players are shaking the tree to dislodge stock ripe for the picking.Buying opportunity for traders? or a leg down any TA people willing to comment?

[soulman]

LYC sp down to 148.5 looks to me like the big players are shaking the tree to dislodge stock ripe for the picking.Buying opportunity for traders? or a leg down any TA people willing to comment?

Apparently, a brokerage house downgraded the stock today, according to AFR.

[COLIN]

LYC sp down to 148.5 looks to me like the big players are shaking the tree to dislodge stock ripe for the picking.Buying opportunity for traders? or a leg down any TA people willing to comment?

About the only indicator which is not sending out flashing orange signals is the Chalkins Volatility, and I'm not sufficiently au fait with this one to be able to assess how much weight it deserves. The price has also now dipped below the 30 day MA, and thats another worry for me. I also suspect that a key trend line has been broken. I also would be interested to get the views of Phaedrus, if he is willing to comment.

However, from an FA viewpoint I am still inclined to hang onto my LYC at this stage. Their Annual Report arrived in the mail today, and they really are in the box position when it comes to beating their rivals to the first delivery of REO's outside of China, by the third quarter of next year.

I'm not very happy, though, with some of the resolutions to be placed before the forthcoming AGM, relating to Director remuneration. They are proposing a sizeable increase in the pool, which is probably reasonable enough given that this will be the first increase since 2003. However, not only are they are also proposing further hefty grants of options to Curtis (9 million), but also to non-executive directors (1.2m to 1.5m) as well. Also - get this - the exercise price is only $1-15! Altogether too generous, I'm afraid, and I will be voting against.

[lewinsky]

The Australian Small Cap Investor report issued last night has advised readers to take profits so expect a rush of selling today.

Maybe a good time to pick up some more.

They are also recommending taking profits in ALK.

Maybe news has already leaked.

I am a bit sceptical of these tip reports. Remember Rivkin . RIP

[peat]

Stratfor.com(a geo-politics website I read) had a video article about China and the rare earths last week. just the usual stuff nothing too new
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20101020_dispatch_chinas_rare_earths_leverage?utm_ source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=101026&utm_content=watchvideo&elq=1a8eb477489a429a86ae51e577883887

edit: And ABN Amro's daily report mentions that US and EU warning about a shortage harming their economies too. So lots of press.....

[COLIN]

Seriously, they are about a week too late! I took profits on ALK as soon as it dipped. LYC is another story.
I'm beginning to think that the FA story is SO good that the price is being manipulated so that the big end of town can get on board. The price break is limited to Australian companies only - Molycorp in the US (who will get to market after LYC and is slightly smaller) went up almost 10% last night to reach an all time high since its IPO 3 months ago.

I recognise that LYC put on a relatively good performance today, but I saw it as a bit of a bounce and I was still worried about the unfavourable balance between the volumes on bid and offer. I decided that I shouldn't ignore my interpretation of the technicals, and so I off-loaded, for a 140% gain.

I will continue to follow the compelling Lynas story, though, and could well re-enter when the signals are right.

[stevo1]

I recognise that LYC put on a relatively good performance today, but I saw it as a bit of a bounce and I was still worried about the unfavourable balance between the volumes on bid and offer. I decided that I shouldn't ignore my interpretation of the technicals, and so I off-loaded, for a 140% gain.

I will continue to follow the compelling Lynas story, though, and could well re-enter when the signals are right.

Well done on the 140% gain Colin.

I continue to hold .
Nothing has changed for me with this stock though there is now a more general awareness of REEs with ever dog and his man looking to claim an REE deposit .
The complexity of refining specific deposits is the key and CANT happen in a short time frame.
LYC has the first to market advantage outside of China who despite all the rhetoric will dictate supply into the forseeable future.
The mining of REEs is only one step in the process.
It was only a short time ago that Chinese interests were looking to take over LYC.
Bubble in REEs ? perhaps personally I think not.
Too crucial now to the energy and technology into the future.
Other technologies replacing REE s perhaps but wont happen in the immediate future.
It may well be that the REE basket price drops back from $60 /kg but LYC looks well profitable at $30/kg.
Of course any out of left field event could screw up LYC but failing that I see way more upside .
It could well be that ATM LYC is a plaything for Morgan Stanely and JP Morgan and the like.
Anyway well done Colin and good luck with reentry chance in the future

[Cannibal]

Interesting article here - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8092078/Rare-earth-metals-wont-be-used-as-bargaining-tool-says-China.html

[COLIN]

Interesting article here - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8092078/Rare-earth-metals-wont-be-used-as-bargaining-tool-says-China.html

Thanks, Cannibal, well worth a read by anyone following the REE's.

And thanks, stevo1, for your comments also. The last paragraph in the article posted by Cannibal does draw attention to the danger of a large bubble forming, and quotes the total capitalisation of just six junior REE miners as being $7B compared with the world's annual demand of only $2B - and it can take up to 15 years from discoveries to production. But, as we have observed, LYC is in a most advantageous position, being less than a year from production, and seems to be the one to follow, for anyone wanting to stand a good chance of making good gains. (I mustn't keep going on, or I will talk myself into buying back into LYC again today!).

[stevo1]

Thanks, Cannibal, well worth a read by anyone following the REE's.

And thanks, stevo1, for your comments also. The last paragraph in the article posted by Cannibal does draw attention to the danger of a large bubble forming, and quotes the total capitalisation of just six junior REE miners as being $7B compared with the world's annual demand of only $2B - and it can take up to 15 years from discoveries to production. But, as we have observed, LYC is in a most advantageous position, being less than a year from production, and seems to be the one to follow, for anyone wanting to stand a good chance of making good gains. (I mustn't keep going on, or I will talk myself into buying back into LYC again today!).

This latest ann speaks volumes .
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101027/pdf/31tfynkjn20376.pdf
It is disclosure from Morgan-Stanely on change of shareholding.
On looking at it ,it appears to me that these ****** investment banks are on the same old manipulation games.
Same day trades ,accumulating buying selling ,ramping then selling the bulk into the price rise.
Probably will continue now until production but certainly may allow traders to coat tail their games.
Makes little difference to me BUT may allow good profits for some on ST.

[upside_umop]

What would be the current market size be now given this years rise?

I understand that LYC will supply around 20,000 tonnes a year at an average basket price of circa $60kg.

This translates to: $1.2b a year in revenues (at current prices)? Is this correct?

[bull....]

AU rare earth had a big fall early this week so they be leading price wise as Moly was still going up.

[Gasbox]

Nth American RE stocks are crashing due to China releasing RE for export today. Their fall is unrelated to what happened earlier this week.

The Chinese govt is resuming shipments to Europe, the US and Japan with the embargo lifted although shipments to Japan still face "futher scrutiny".
Shipments to Japan have been blocked since Sep 21st, the US and Europe since Oct 18th.

http://www.steel.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=40993

[stevo1]

The Chinese govt is resuming shipments to Europe, the US and Japan with the embargo lifted although shipments to Japan still face "futher scrutiny".
Shipments to Japan have been blocked since Sep 21st, the US and Europe since Oct 18th.

http://www.steel.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=40993

Is this the unofficial positon of Chinese policy or just the journo 's opinion ?(keeping in mind the freedom of the press)

Here is the full article

Opinion Rare as it is
(China Daily)
Updated: 2010-10-29 13:31 Comments(0) PrintMail Large Medium Small

Attempts by some rich countries to challenge China's decision to enhance control and regulation over rare earth minerals is the latest evidence of astounding unfairness in the current global economic and trade order.

If the world economy is to embrace a sustainable recovery, no country should stand in the way of China properly pricing resources as scarce as rare earths.

The Chinese government made it clear again on Thursday that it will not use its current dominance of global rare earth supplies as a bargaining tool. Such an official statement is meant to ease unjustified international concerns that China may be using its rare earth exports as an economic and political lever.

China enjoyed little appreciation over the past two decades when it was burdened with the world's demand for the 17 elements called rare earths. With about one third of the world's total reserves, China has satisfied more than 90 percent of the world's need for rare earth elements at such an abnormally low price that it belied the name.

Yet, even more absurd, while other countries of large reserves like the United States have contributed virtually nothing to global supply in the past decade, they are demanding China, the largest producer of the elements, to keep exporting with little say over the price and quantity of exports.

It is no secret that regulatory problems in the domestic industry must have contributed to this abnormal trade.


Related readings:
China will not use rare earth as bargaining chip
China hopes to co-op on rare earth utilization
China to reduce rare earth export quotas
China's rare earth rules meet int'l regulations



Hence, when China decided to strengthen its regulatory measures on the exploration, production and export of rare earths in line with international practice and World Trade Organization rules, those import countries that have benefited from China's cheap export of rare earth materials for a long time should not be too surprised.

Given the severe environmental problems associated with their exploration, as well as their increasing value as essential elements in new energy technologies, it is all too natural that rare earths will become much dearer than before.

While China retains its position as the largest exporter of rare earth materials, no one should expect the country to continue to meet most of the world's demand, because that is simply unsustainable given that it has only one third of the world's reserves.

Besides, if the international community is really serious about sustainable development, China's efforts to exercise control and regulation over its rare earth industry should be a welcome step.

The long-term benefit of pricing resources appropriately is far more important to sustainable development around the world than the short-term gains that importers can reap from cheap rare earth elements.

But international efforts to fix the global economic and trade order in line with a sustainable future, unfortunately, remain rare.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2010-10/29/content_11476830.htm

[Gasbox]

Judging from opeing paragraph of the article the unofficial Chinese policy.
Interesting the China Daily article makes it out as though Chine has been "burdened" with supplying rare earths as opposed to flooding the market and pricing out any competition.
Also it describes the rare earths as "scarce" in spite of The Baotou region alone belived to be holding over 40 millions tons so at current global rates of mining (chinas current rates) this mine with last 400 years.

[stevo1]

Judging from opeing paragraph of the article the unofficial Chinese policy.
Interesting the China Daily article makes it out as though Chine has been "burdened" with supplying rare earths as opposed to flooding the market and pricing out any competition.
Also it describes the rare earths as "scarce" in spite of The Baotou region alone belived to be holding over 40 millions tons so at current global rates of mining (chinas current rates) this mine with last 400 years.

HI Gasbox,

Where did you get that 40 million ton figure from?this article in the China.org.cn quote

"The near completion of the Baotou Steel Rare-Earth integration plan in northern China is a strategic step. Thus, it has to move toward the south to expand its stance," said Liu Minda, an analyst at Huatai Securities, adding that Ganzhou is a good start for the company.

Ganzhou has verified reserves of 2.89 million tons of ion-absorbed-type rare earth elements, accounting for 40 percent of the nation's total."

full article here :http://www.china.org.cn/business/2010-08/04/content_20635525.htm

[Gasbox]

The 40 million figure for Baotou will include the ion absorbed (heavy/medium) rare earths and light rare earths. Looking back at it I imagine the China Daily article is describing the heavy/medium rare earths as scarce although it doesn't say specifically.

"China's verified reserves of ion-absorbed-type rare earth stood at 8 million tons in 2008, while reserves of light rare earth totaled 50 to 60 million, according to data from the Ministry of Land and Resources."

http://blogs.forbes.com/gadyepstein/2010/10/29/names-you-need-to-know-in-2011-baotou-rare-earths-capital-of-the-world/?boxes=financechannelforbes - Article describing Baotou's reserves.

[Gasbox]

Interesting development on the Japanese plans to secure steady supplys of rare earths. Small mine compared to Lynas however who could supply annually 7 times as much as the Lai Chau deposit.

Japan believes it has secured the mining rights for a mine in Lai Chau province of northwestern Vietnam, another Japanese government official said.
Japan's Sojitz Corp and Toyota Tsusho Corp and a Vietnamese firm are conducting a feasibility study at a deposit in Lai Chau, and the project could produce 3,000 metric tons of rare earth minerals a year or about 10 percent of annual demand in Japan, a Japanese trade ministry official said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69U05F20101031

[stevo1]

this is taken from hotcopper and attributable to noelgulliver
The reality is Lynas has already pulled initial amounts from the ground at Mt Weld for some time now - and delivered nothing. So mining is not the problem , rather it is the processing and that takes time & money - lots of both.

I was personally involved in some of Lynas' discussions in Malaysia when they were looking for a site for their processor. That was nearly 5 years ago and was definitely fast tracked bureaucratically & enviromentally by the Malaysia Government - so other competitors will take much longer to accomplish the same.

What everyone ignores in the supply / demand debate is that end users will move away from China (if not already judging by the recent supply agreement signed with a Japanese co) as they are now seen as not being a reliable supplier for a strategic raw material. And the end products are high value so lower prices for the raw materials is not as important as reliability of supply in that case.

Lynas's advantage in being first to market will be considerable - and certainly more than 2 years IMHO.

What makes me wonder is why more official questions are not being raised as to the motive's & integrity of JPM & others' activities which surely have to border on a conflict of interest - especially against minority shareholder interests.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[COLIN]

I must admit that I hadn't expected LYC sp to fall this fast to this extent. I'm glad I had the gumption to heed what the technicals seemed to be telling me, and bailed out at 154. (Phaedrus will be proud of me!)

The market seems to be losing interest in REE's, at least for the time being. ARU is down today and AKM is static. Tin seems to be an area of focus at the moment.

[stevo1]

I must admit that I hadn't expected LYC sp to fall this fast to this extent. I'm glad I had the gumption to heed what the technicals seemed to be telling me, and bailed out at 154. (Phaedrus will be proud of me!)

The market seems to be losing interest in REE's, at least for the time being. ARU is down today and AKM is static. Tin seems to be an area of focus at the moment.

Well done on that Colin that TA is a great thing for trading.

Certainly the SP has gone ballistic (in a downward way) much against FA.

For me nothing has changed .(other than the paper value)

I am now looking at adding more if and when the opportunity presents .

I hope Phaedrus is not shaking his head too hard at my approach .

[COLIN]

Well done on that Colin that TA is a great thing for trading.

Certainly the SP has gone ballistic (in a downward way) much against FA.

For me nothing has changed .(other than the paper value)

I am now looking at adding more if and when the opportunity presents .

I hope Phaedrus is not shaking his head too hard at my approach .


Cheers, stevo. And I fully expect to re-enter LYC again sometime, when it gets over this downturn. Its "first mover" advantage is very real.

[tobo]

Stevo, if you are like me, with an INVESTMENT (non-taxable and no annoying FIF on this one), in order to stay in the investment you can't just sell and buy back willy nilly, so adding at lower sp makes sense.
My take on it is that the derogatory term "averaging down" applies when you buy while it's falling, but surely ok with P if you wait till a TA buy signal highlights a change in trend back upwards.
(Tricky with this one as it has been so volatile last few days. However, I don't suppose increase will be as fast as the drop.)

[stevo1]

I was out at $1.50 so not far behind you Colin :-)
Am keeping an eye on it, looking for the trend to change, at which point I'll be back on board.

Hi KW '
Has the trend changed ?today looks like a good day for traders.
Are you back on board?

[Gasbox]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-14/china-may-speed-up-rare-earth-exports-after-delays-japan-minister-says.html

Article doesn't cover anything new but on the same page their is an interesting video with Mark Smith CEO of Molycorp.

[Gasbox]

The Japanese must think that Lynas is the nearest term reliable supplier of Rare Earths over rivals.

TOKYO Nov 24 (Reuters) - Japanese trading house Sojitz Corp (2768.T: Quote (http://af.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=2768.T)) said on Wednesday it has begun studying a long-term deal with Australian miner Lynas Corp (LYC.AX: Quote (http://af.reuters.com/stocks/quote?symbol=LYC.AX)) to supply Japan with over 9,000 tonnes per year of rare earths for the next 10 years.
Earlier in the day, Sojitz said it would forge a rare earth procurement deal with Lynas, underscoring a move by Japan to reduce its reliance on China for the minerals, vital for making auto parts and high-tech products.

[stevo1]

At the risk of totalling queering the SP I think LYC is about to take off to new heights .Having said that this is a personal oipinion only and you should do your own research!!!!!!!

[tobo]

New heights? Was a good start yesturday. Closed 153 last night, up from prev night's close 138.5
A similar increase today (obviously hardly likely) would be a visit to recent high.
Edit: I was wwwrong about high. 52 week high is 1.79. So up today 8c so far is excellent, but a wee way to go until crack the high
But the fundamentals are looking secure.

[tobo]

Yes, it has occurred to me that all this excitement about preselling is not that big a deal, in the sense that there was never going to be a problem of finding someone to sell to.
Of more significance is maxing out the production rate. So, KW, an good question!
This is all the REE companies I know of
ALK, ARU, GBE, NAV, PEK, RSL, RWD, and of course NTU (which LYC has shares in)

[stevo1]

The Business Spectator stephen Bartholomeusz take on LYC and Curtis
"Curtis, whose company only narrowly escaped (with a big of a shove from the Foreign Investment Review Board) being drawn into China’s dominance of rare earths, may have been helped somewhat by China’s own actions but he has steered his group into exactly the right position at almost exactly the right time"
full article http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Lynas-Corp-rare-earths-China-Japan-pd20101216-C78J9?OpenDocument&src=sph&WELCOME=AUTHENTICATED REMEMBER

[COLIN]

I agree that LYC is a great story but, from a TA perspective, it does not yet appear to be firing off any "buy" signals. I previously held, and will be keeping an open eye for possible future re-entry - but not just yet.

[Huang Chung]

I'm in and holding long term. We dont get much news in Australia on rare earths, so need to check Bloomberg and CNBC for updates. For instance, did you know that yesterday China announced that they would be increasing export taxes on rare earths from next year? The average Lynas RE basket price has doubled in the last 3 months. All their forward contracts are priced at the China FOB rate at the time of delivery - so the more expensive the Chinese price, the more money LYC makes.

Don't know whether you listened or not, but Alkane have a Rare Earths BRR Roundtable Discussion with the heads of Lynas, Alkane, Arafura (and a stockbroker from Adelaide) which was held in November..

Goes about 30min, but I found it quite enlightening.

[stevo1]

This from the Business Spectator
Lynas Corporation Ltd says it has received approval from the Malawi government to acquire a rare earths resource for $US4 million ($A4.02 million).

The minerals explorer said the Malawi minister of mines had approved the transfer of the mining licence for the Kangankunde Carbonatite Complex to Lynas.

The Malawi Investment Promotion Agency also had approved the project proposal, Lynas said in a statement.

These were the main conditions precedent in the purchase agreement, Lynas said.

"Lynas is now finalising settlement formalities for the purchase agreement for the rare earths deposit, which are expected to be procedural," the company said in a statement.

At the market close shares in Lynas were up 4.4 per cent to $1.66 against a flat benchmark index.



The company ANN is here http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20101222/pdf/41vsgt5wn04czc.pdf

[stevo1]

Chinese have announced reduction in REEs.Can be nothing but good for near term REE producers.SP lifted to$1.79 this morning

[stevo1]

Further lift in SP this morning to $1.96 the stars are aligning themselves for REEs .Hope some TA people here on Sharetrader are on to this and doing well from it.

[stevo1]

CNBC mention LYC in this http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/40841429#40841429 not that i am a fan of CNBC.

Nick Curtis has been invited to the Davos economic summit,very unusual for a small mining operation but underlies the concern over REEs

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/miners-up-as-rare-earths-get-even-rarer-after-chinese-cuts/story-e6frg9df-1225978214684

[stevo1]

Yes but it could have waited until 1 Jan to run as I picked it for the share trader comp :-(

I think there is still plenty of upside here over the next year KW but then again been wrong before.

[stevo1]

Yes but it could have waited until 1 Jan to run as I picked it for the share trader comp :-(

KW started to run for you today on cue started off $2.27 cps .Hang on from here?

[stevo1]

LYC down overnight on US ADRs to $1.94 equivalent.
I suspect manipulation by the investment bankers who could be shorting,lending or accumulating shares.
Or just driving price up and down taking profits on the way .Probably all of the above.
Should produce some excellent opportunities for TA people to profit I would think.
I am sitting watching the machinations.

[tobo]

Yes, there is enough clues to conclude that the sp is being manipulated. The friday fall could be a shock for recent purchasers who did not go through the last 'manipulated' sequence (fell from about 160 to 120 in quick time.)
I hold LT, and I did not sell during that time (believing the LT business model), or buy (had insufficient funds to buy more... was topping up on PENOC and NWE instead)
This time looks 'familiar' so the question is how low this will go before starting next long leg up toward $2.71 (JP Morgan, apparently using 15% risk discount to allow for risk of plant construction.commision delay) [I have not seen the report myself, so perhaps ignore the $2.71 number and DYOR.]

ToBo. Hold LT
[This is my conservative, non-speculative investment]

[stevo1]

LYC shares have been smashed from top of the range $2.34 to $1.77 close on friday.
Within that week high was $1.94 low was $1.69.5.
The traders must have had a good week if they got it right.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/china-biggest-produce-of-rare-earths-expects-to-import-more/story-e6frg8zx-1226000445597

"This from the Australian Lynas chairman Nick Curtis, who sparked a 9 per cent slip in the company's share price on Wednesday when he sold most of his shares, has said he believes China will be a net importer within five years."


The statement
"Nick Curtis, who sparked a 9 per cent slip in the company's share price on Wednesday when he sold most of his shares" is erroneous he in sold 7milion shares Curtis still owns 14.9 mill shares(direclty and indirectly) and 31mill options .
Cant believe everthing you read. DYOR
Interesting to watch the gyrations.

[stevo1]

This is a somewhat new development from China and also the USA is considering building a stockpile.


"The move to build reserves comes as China’s supply of rare earth metals to the rest of the world already is shrinking despite growing demand for the elements, which have strategic industrial and military value in such products as night-vision goggles and wind turbines. China’s exports of rare earth metals fell 9.3 per cent last year.

US Rep. Mike Coffman called China “an unreliable trade partner” in rare earth minerals and said he plans to introduce a bill in coming weeks that may require the US military to hold an unspecified amount of such elements. “The goal of the legislation is to establish a competitive supply chain in the US,” and that may include mandating a stockpile or setting conditions on when to form one, the Colorado Republican said in an interview
But some politicians warn that official stockpiling by the US would only make the government a new competitor in an already strained supply chain that, despite its strategic importance, is relatively small"
"The US Department of Energy in 2009 proposed a middle road. It outlined how a Strategic Military Stockpile Program would include “limited physical stockpiles” of metals and other resources but be supplemented by “friendly nation agreements and long-term supply-chain partnerships.”

How many producers are there ?and the first mover advantage will be LYC.
Classic supply and demand scenario one would think supply shrinking demand growing

article here http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/china-builds-up-strategic-reserves-of-rare-earth-metals/story-e6frg90x-1226001325557

[stevo1]

LYC on the move again any traders on this
1-Week Range (Low - High): 180 - 212
4-Week Range: 169.5 - 212
26-Week Range: 97.5 - 235
52-Week Range: 37.5 - 235
I am holding long term

[p2r]

Yes I should get some. This kind of massive capital growth in such a big company doesn't seem to come along very often. Maybe a few years ago when Fortesque went from $2 to $30 or something like that. The last presentation seemed to get things going. Production kicks off July I think. Up 3% today on a down day.

[drillfix]

Beside some of the 13ema line breaches that occur with most stocks off and on, LYC is a perfect Trade and hold above the 60 Day EMA line type of stock. (IMO).

Chart looks really good, so does trading the Hourly (60 min) chart if you were to just trade the swings on that.

Guess long term holders wouldn't need to trade the swings, but this looks like another leg up yet Williams %R is showing a bit over bought and eventually the stock will need to take a few breaths with the MACD, but hey, who know, it may just keep powering on.

Love stocks like this by just even trading the Hourly though, as it completely gives you clear direction to which side of the trade you should be on.

All the best with this one lad's~!

[ob1kinobi]

I picked up some of these in the last big push. Lots of great info here and great analysis too, cheers. Drilly, your thoughts on strategy are also v.helpful.

The test is now whether it can hold what has been a pretty long term trend.

[stevo1]

The test is now whether it can hold what has been a pretty long term trend.[/QUOTE]

Test indeed as ATM there is some opposition being raised in Malaysia over the processing plant.Concerns probably arent justified (IMO) as plant is being made to best specifications BUT because of a MItsubishi plant that was closed s19 years ago leaving behind a good deal of pollution and of course LYC being "foreign" some people are not too happy.Should work itself out with time but like any big project change brings some dissidents.Radioactive pollutants are a problem with REEs fortunately LYC has very low levels of thorium,but any thing radioactive elicits fear(justified or otherwise).May well spook some holders.LYC need to build the plant and then run it to the Malayans specs to get license to operate it.SP could get REALLY volatile.
Here is an article out of the New York times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/business/energy-environment/09rare.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&hp

[skid]

The nuclear plant problems in Japan could spook for a while

[stevo1]

LYC flirting under all time high,all this with an amount of shareholder revolution at Nick Curtis's $20 million dollar grab at the Crown polymetallic deposit and mumblings in Malaysia over LAMP there and its safety.Mind you the basket price for LYC REES is now$150/kg.Interesting times ahead with the possability of breakout on the upside.

[tobo]

Looks like $2.40 is above the resistance from last 2 highs, but going higher than 2.40 today would be a clearer confirmation of broken resistance. And I think this is reasonably posible given the chart, the increased price of REE, and the subsidence of the grief over NC's sales of shares and of polymetals.
But with the 2.07 issue, it may then dip back down before another climb past 2.40.

hold LT

[stevo1]

Looks like $2.40 is above the resistance from last 2 highs, but going higher than 2.40 today would be a clearer confirmation of broken resistance. And I think this is reasonably posible given the chart, the increased price of REE, and the subsidence of the grief over NC's sales of shares and of polymetals.
But with the 2.07 issue, it may then dip back down before another climb past 2.40.

hold LT

The ADR's in the US closed at US$25.25 overnight so propable that will climb past $2.4 today and despite the 2.07 share issue and other happenings as and when production begins the SP will really take off provided all goes near enough to plan.

[stevo1]

Yes, there is enough clues to conclude that the sp is being manipulated. The friday fall could be a shock for recent purchasers who did not go through the last 'manipulated' sequence (fell from about 160 to 120 in quick time.)
I hold LT, and I did not sell during that time (believing the LT business model), or buy (had insufficient funds to buy more... was topping up on PENOC and NWE instead)
This time looks 'familiar' so the question is how low this will go before starting next long leg up toward $2.71 (JP Morgan, apparently using 15% risk discount to allow for risk of plant construction.commision delay) [I have not seen the report myself, so perhaps ignore the $2.71 number and DYOR.]

ToBo. Hold LT
[This is my conservative, non-speculative investment]

Well has gone up BUT the bots are hard at work guess its the same old suspects Morgan Stanley ,J.P.Morgan and the like,trading the living s%#@ out of it.BUT it looks like they are accumulating as well probably with the daily profits on the shorting,borrowing etc and manipulating through the trading day

[elZorro]

I have turned up on this thread in a roundabout way: Nick Curtis and Jake Klein are old mates, and I expect Mr Klein will be a big player in OGC's fortunes in future. There might even be connections through to LYC or CQT (both involved). Great run on this share, and while it's crabbing sideways now, it might still have a lot of travelling upwards to do. They expect sales volume to be $2 billion a year, starting production in 2011.

[elZorro]

Here is a recent page from the Lynas website (http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25)posted by Chen Lin elsewhere. You can see a very strong price increase in rare earth materials, based on the domestic price in China. This has occurred over the last year or two, but ramped up in the last few months exponentially.

[Gasbox]

Futher to Stevo's post, local opposition to the already built refinery in Pahang, Malaysia.


"Public opposition to a plan by an Australian mining company, Lynas, to build a rare earth refinery in Pahang, Malaysia, was on show at a protest outside Australian High Commission in Kuala Lumpur on May 20."
Article was published June 18th, took a month from protests to publish the article which seems strange. Also bear in mind the source "Greenleft".


http://www.greenleft.org.au/node/47938

[Gasbox]

"Here is a recent page from the Lynas website (http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25)posted by Chen Lin elsewhere. You can see a very strong price increase in rare earth materials, based on the domestic price in China. This has occurred over the last year or two, but ramped up in the last few months exponentially."



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a39aea4e-9a9d-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PmZyEVI7

FT commentary on the recent price rises

[Packersoldkidney]

Saw a TA perspective of this and the conclusion was a level of support is around 1.70. Lot of brokers like this - heard one FA perspective that had its forward PE in 2013 at around 1. :scared:

Disc: don't hold.

[stevo1]

LYC is rollercoasting on the LAMP issues in Malaya and dubious market conditions (Greece,Europe ATM).
This article from Minister of International Trade and Industry
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110620/pdf/41z9h6fdw57rz8.pdf and released via Ann from LYC.
No approval price will slump- approval price will jump.
I think approval will be given albeit probably not in the scheduled time frame
The degrees of slump or jump will be overshadowed by the greater conditions of the markets in general IMO.
I still hold long term.
The demand for REE s is not going to go away.
The lead time for production of the end product with refining facilities is long,expensive and complex and specific to the REE deposit.
LYC has had the first to production advantage at this point any delay may well also impact on SP.
Though I am not into TA a look at the chart for the last month is not that encouraging a reflection of the uncertainty ATM

[BIRMANBOY]

Interesting to see that this was trading at 20c when this thread started. You can see how some (lucky) people can do well on the mining sector occasionally. How many frogs does one have to kiss I wonder.

[Gasbox]

Yes will be interesting trading in the lead up to the announcement at the end of June. Will be watching price and volume closely for indications as to which way the decision is made, I have a feeling it will be reflected pre-official announcement.

[tobo]

It amazes me that people talk of the approval as being a yes/no decision.
So much investigation/negotiation work has advanced in Malaysia that if an approval was not able to be made on the documents submitted, then some amendments would be resubmitted in order to satisfy whatever issue was of concern. A blanket refusal would run counter to talks this far completed. I must have a look at just what the extent of agreements have been so far (eg. they got a 10 year tax exemption from who? Oh yeah, the government)

I hold long term (several years now) and recently added more

[Packersoldkidney]

Heard one fella talk about this the other day and he said it was massively over-valued. Reason being is that, even with the current great prospects on rare earths, the entire industry will still only be worth $10 billion annually by 2015. Lynas is capitalised currently at nearly $4 billion. Almost half the future of the entire industry. Then other people are saying the exact opposite - that it is massively undervalued.

[Huang Chung]

Heard one fella talk about this the other day and he said it was massively over-valued. Reason being is that, even with the current great prospects on rare earths, the entire industry will still only be worth $10 billion annually by 2015. Lynas is capitalised currently at nearly $4 billion. Almost half the future of the entire industry. Then other people are saying the exact opposite - that it is massively undervalued.

Packer...I think you might be referring to last Tuesday's edition of Your Money Your Call. I forget the name of the guy with the negative view of LYC, but he's been on the show before. The other guy was Ben Clarke from TMS Capital, who would have to be one of the few "experts" on that show who actually has a good understanding of small resource stocks.

If you go to the Sky Business website, I believe you will be able to view the episode as a podcast.

[Packersoldkidney]

Yep - it was Gary Glover on YMYC - think it was the Thursday show - they had a call about another rare earths stock I think and Glover talked about LYC. Can't remember who the other fella was but it might have been Ben Clarke as you say - this other dude was very positive on the stock whereas Glover is not. One of them had a fundamental perspective whereas Glover is TA, which may explain the differing views.. Glover has a chart up with LYC on his blog recently which illustrates his opinion.

[Packersoldkidney]

Packer, if LYC has 20% of the market, that means its worth 2x revenues. Lets say 20% margin, gives you $400m earnings per year, making it worth 10x earnings. I wouldnt call that over valued! I'd call that conservative. Plus the REE market is only just beginning to grow as they go into products that havent even been mass produced yet (eg. electric cars, wind turbines) and products that havent been invented yet (eg. whatever new tech gadget Apple releases next).

Yep - I don't hold this stock so don't really have a view on it - just passing on others opinion here as I thought it might help people interested in LYC to make a decision on it. In other words just posting for FYI purposes more than anything.

[geezy]

why the hell wont lynas build the plant in australia and instead build it in my hometown?

[stevo1]

LAMP decision out .
LYC have complied BUT 11 additional conditions to project = uncertainty.
Which will probably be translated into lower sp
Malaya may not have been the best place for LAMP to be built
Delays to start up look likely.
Stll hold LT may look to add in future

[macduffy]

From the NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/09/business/energy-environment/09rare.html?_r=1

I don't hold.

[macduffy]

And from The Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/rare-earths-miner-lynas-admits-faults-over-malaysia-plant/story-e6frg9df-1226085151010

[Anna Naum]

LYC: Lynas (LYSCF US) fell -9% after sinking as much as -16% in US trade. The Sydney-based company said its Malaysian rare-earth refinery may be delayed by a government review that called for higher safety standards, limiting supply of rare earths. Other rare-earth stocks rallied. Molycorp the owner of the largest deposits outside China, rose 7% for the biggest advance in the Russell 1000 Index.

[geezy]

still dont get it why dont they just do it in Australia guys, obviously Lynas knows how the local govt works to get its way through.

I still think the project will be completed but with a few slight delays, Sept production target will likely to be missed.

[macduffy]

still dont get it why dont they just do it in Australia guys, obviously Lynas knows how the local govt works to get its way through.


It's far too "political" for Australia. Radioactive waste dumps would just be the beginning of the hassles and would tie up production for years.

I agree with KW that the Malaysian refinery will eventually get the "all clear" but with a few extra conditions on operating procedures.

Disc: Not holding but watching keenly!

[macduffy]

Article from The Australian covering LYC's response to the NY Times article.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/lynas-defends-building-of-malaysian-processing-plant/story-e6frg9df-1226085394909

[tobo]

Reason it is in Malaysia, not Australia - Lower cost and tax break (see further below)
Reason it is in Malaysia, not China - I recall that although it might have been cheaper and might have had easier approvals, it was considered higher sovereign risk because of the great importance that china is placing on its own rare earths, and its heavy-handed export duty interventions.

quote from NY Times arcticle:
"Nicholas Curtis, Lynas’s executive chairman, said it would cost four times as much to build and operate such a refinery in Australia, which has much higher labor and construction costs. Australia is also home to an environmentally minded and politically powerful Green party.
Despite the potential hazards, the Malaysian government was eager for investment by Lynas, even offering a 12-year tax holiday. If rare earth prices stay at current lofty levels, the refinery will generate $1.7 billion a year in exports starting late next year, equal to nearly 1 percent of the entire Malaysian economy."

[elZorro]

I'm seeing this is a good entry point for a long term hold. Will see how it goes Monday. It looks like a 9 month delay to Phase 1 production, but no delay to Phase 2. At the end of the day, LYC is the only company outside of China who is close to production of REE - Molycorp hasnt even begun to build their new refining plant (they have only just completed the capital raising for it). Meantime the tighter the supply squeeze, the higher the prices go.

Maybe, but do we know all the details? Have a look at this.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/lynas-suffers-production-setback-20110701-1gv76.html

[lawrence]

It's far too "political" for Australia. Radioactive waste dumps would just be the beginning of the hassles and would tie up production for years.



Disc: Not holding but watching keenly!

So how did ARU get the Whyalla site approved for processing?

[stevo1]

Maybe, but do we know all the details? Have a look at this.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/lynas-suffers-production-setback-20110701-1gv76.html

Very difficult to know as there is a heap of conjecture and rumour floating around in the various media.mainly out of the US then parroted in Oz
The report from IAEA said that LYC had complied with safety standards albeit with future conditions to be met http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110701/pdf/41zjkdqrdnlxhg.pdf
This will make for a great trading stock and the shorters will be salivating

My worry is a cost blowout on construction of LAMP.

[Shaneoz]

Received this as an email.

I would hazard a guess that this sort of article would be a major negative to the Malaysian's and would be effecting the way they view the project. Amazing the things you can do in the 3rd world and get away with it.

How many people have been effected by this toxic mess? Admittedly, back in the 60's they wouldnt have known the impacts are as bad as today but still it defies belief that the almighty $ has been put before a whole community's health and still continues today.

Definately puts a bad smell on the "green" credentials of wind and makes you wonder about other so called envirmentally friendly products.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html

[stevo1]

Received this as an email.

I would hazard a guess that this sort of article would be a major negative to the Malaysian's and would be effecting the way they view the project. Amazing the things you can do in the 3rd world and get away with it.

How many people have been effected by this toxic mess? Admittedly, back in the 60's they wouldnt have known the impacts are as bad as today but still it defies belief that the almighty $ has been put before a whole community's health and still continues today.

Definately puts a bad smell on the "green" credentials of wind and makes you wonder about other so called envirmentally friendly products.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html

Unfortunately with growth in populations and living standards some compromises must be made.
TO compare Baotou to LYC Malaysian LAMP is rather a reactionary and dissimilar comparison.
The companies in Bautou have been operating unregulated(as were Japanese in Malaya)
There is definitely a problem with Bautou and also with the waste left in Malaysia by the Japanese REE producers who were previously operating there hence the current angst with LAMP and LYC by the Malays.
If LYC cannot build a safe plant(I believe they can as does IAEA with conditions ) then they should not be operating .I say that as a long term holder, I would not wish to hold shares in a company that is damaging to population and environment.
so yes it does not help LYC cause ATM but the demand is not going to go away for REEs when produced safely with minimal impact on the environment.
Meanwhile the REE prices will increase into the future IF China is serious about cleaning up their act on REEs.
Will make for very volatile fluctuations in LYC SP

[stevo1]

"I wonder why LYC cant process the thorium and sell it to the alternative nuclear plants - new income stream!"
There is heaps of it lying around already.
http://energyfromthorium.com/
Veiw the third 10 minute utube

[geezy]

i dont see how a 12 year tax break will be good for Malaysia , and to anyone out there who is supporting this project, maybe one can think about having it in your own back yard :) no matter what the safety compliance , there are still risks. i.e Japan earthquake.

[macduffy]

i dont see how a 12 year tax break will be good for Malaysia

Malaysia has a history of tax breaks to attract industry and create employment. Just a different way of going about things than what we're used to. Over 30 years ago I visited a plant owned by NZ's PDL Industries where electrical fittings were assembled from components made in Christchurch. Part of the Shah Alam tax-free industrial park, as I recall.

REE plants will have to be built somewhere, unless we're all prepared to forego the benefits of products using them. The best we can hope for, and expect, is that all reasonable precautions will be taken in their processing.

Disc: Not holding LYC - yet.

[Gasbox]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14009910

"Japanese researchers say they have discovered vast deposits of rare earth minerals, used in many hi-tech appliances, in the seabed.
The geologists estimate that there are about a 100bn tons of the rare elements in the mud of the Pacific Ocean floor."

"The listed mining company Nautilus has the first licence to mine the floor of the Bismarck and Solomon oceans around Papua New Guinea. "

Nautilus Minerals are TSE and London listed `$400m market cap, little bit about the company
http://nzresources.com/showarticle.aspx?id=2201&gid=30002201
Anglo American own 11%.

The level of uranium and thorium — radioactive ingredients that are usually contained in such deposits that can pose environmental hazards — was found to be one-fifth of those in deposits on land.

[stevo1]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-14009910

"Japanese researchers say they have discovered vast deposits of rare earth minerals, used in many hi-tech appliances, in the seabed.
The geologists estimate that there are about a 100bn tons of the rare elements in the mud of the Pacific Ocean floor."

"The listed mining company Nautilus has the first licence to mine the floor of the Bismarck and Solomon oceans around Papua New Guinea. "

Nautilus Minerals are TSE and London listed `$400m market cap, little bit about the company
http://nzresources.com/showarticle.aspx?id=2201&gid=30002201
Anglo American own 11%.

The level of uranium and thorium — radioactive ingredients that are usually contained in such deposits that can pose environmental hazards — was found to be one-fifth of those in deposits on land.

Hi gasbox marginally better than being located on the moon ;)

[Gasbox]

Hi gasbox marginally better than being located on the moon ;)

Exactly, very little info on estimated costs out there. 11,500 - 20,000 feet under the sea and in international waters....

[macduffy]

Mitsubishi have become a 9.99% substantial shareholder in LYC, indirectly, through their shareholding in Morgan Stanley.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/japanese-take-a-10pc-slice-of-rare-earths-miner-lynas/story-e6frg9df-1226088403195

Mitsubishi were involved in the earlier problems with REE refining in Malaysia, so their new interest in LYC may be a double edged sword for that company.

[geezy]

I can the start of a whole lot of mess happening in my own back yard.

[stevo1]

This looks VERY GOOD for LYC even though at this stage details are a bit sketchy. :)
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110707/pdf/41znjsrlzdqx73.pdf

[stevo1]

I am watching with great interest this week at LYC sp.The market has had the weekend to digest the Siemens joint venture proposal.

[stevo1]

Well its taken a couple of weeks but LYC sp is on the move $2.13

[Rif-Raf]

The following is well worth a read for anyone not up with the rare earths story. Despite the hype in this report at the end, the numbers stack up totally.

Weiss Research. Here is the recommendation:


Flash Alert: Make These Trades Today

by Tony Sagami on July 18, 2011

For a few moments, I had visions of getting stuck in an Asian version of the 1970s movie Midnight Express. For those of you who are not film buffs, Midnight Express is a movie about an American who is sent to a Turkish prison and barely lives to talk about it.

I came within seconds of ending up in a Malaysian prison, but there was a company that I HAD to check out.

No one from Wall Street ? and I mean NO ONE ? has been allowed to visit this new Malaysian natural resource processing plant. This company has some cutting-edge processing technology, and it doesn?t want the competition to figure out its proprietary secrets.

Even if there were, I doubt many of them would make the four-hour bus trek and dare get their Gucci loafers dirty in the red Malaysian clay. But you know me. I wanted to see the progress of the construction with my own eyes ? it is progressing just fine by the way ? and chat up some of the workers, any vendors that might be making delivers, or ANYBODY else who might give me a piece of useful information.

I also wanted to take some photos because I wanted to show you the same exciting things I saw. Suddenly, two security trucks screeched to a halt in front of me, blocking my exit from the parking lot.

Six very unfriendly uniformed security guards surrounded me and demanded to know what I was doing and why I was taking pictures.

The lead guard wanted to confiscate my camera, but I wasn?t about to give it up because it still had photos from the palm oil, rubber, and timber companies I had visited earlier.

Another guard was on his walkie-talkie calling for either backup or the police. That is when I started having some Midnight Express flashbacks and knew I needed to do something.

I needed to get the heck out of there. I gave the guards my biggest smile and told them how much I loved to eat laksa (a popular, spicy noodle soup) and how much I LOVED Malaysia while I was backing into my car. I apologized a dozen times as I waved ?bye bye? and told my driver to get me the heck out of there! We peeled out and didn?t look back.

Here is what I learned from that would-be disaster. Construction is moving ahead at a torrid pace, and I believe the company won?t have any problems meeting its target open date in early 2012. That information alone is worth a thousand, four-hour trips on a rickety bus.

So what is going to be produced at this plant? Rare earth metals.

What are rare earth metals?

What do your cell phone, semiconductors, lasers, fiber-optic cable, plasma TVs, hybrid cars, microwave ovens, and scud missiles have in common?

They ? and just about anything electronic ? contain rare earth metals, some of the most obscure chemical elements on the planet.

Rare earth? No, I?m not talking about the 1970s rock group, and I?m not talking about uranium or plutonium. I?m talking about a group of chemical elements that began to be discovered in Sweden in 1787.

The United States Geological Survey has identified 17 elements that are considered rare earth metals, but nobody paid much attention to them until recent years because of the development of new technologies and electronic devices.

Most of the world?s advanced defense, medical, and high-tech electronics simply won?t work without rare earth metals. These metals have special physical and chemical attributes, including high degrees of magnetism, luminosity, superconductivity and environmental non-toxicity.

These obscure metals are so critical to our modern world that they are as strategically important as oil, copper, uranium, natural gas and coal. And I believe that an investment in rare earth metals will be the best natural resources investment you ever make.

Four Reasons You Need to Invest in Rare Earth Metals

Reason #1: Booming Demand. Ten years ago, the world used 40,000 metric tons of rare earth metals a year. Today, it uses 125,000 tons a year but is expected to grow to more than 200,000 tons by about 2014.

The reason for the soaring demand is simple: The world is building and consuming more high-tech devices. Plus, new demand from green energy initiatives are gobbling up all the rare earth metals the world can produce.

The consensus of the forecasts I?ve read predict a 40,000 ton shortage by 2015.

?It is estimated that Chinese domestic consumption of rare earth materials will outpace Chinese domestic supply between 2012 to 2015. It is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years,? the U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said.

Here is a link to a two-minute Reuters news video about the demand for rare earth metals that I highly recommend you watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2CpFYCqZz8

No question, the world is headed for a supply/demand imbalance and that will push the price of rare earth metals higher. Much, much higher.

Reason #2: Global Supply Controlled by China. Until 1948, most of the world?s rare earths were sourced from placer sand deposits in India and Brazil when South Africa became the largest producer. India and South African still produce rare earths, but China has zoomed past everybody since the 1980s.

This number is almost hard to believe but it is absolutely true: China produces and controls 95% of the world?s production of rare earth minerals. Yup, 95%!

The problem is that China currently uses about two-thirds of what it produces, but is on a consumption trajectory where it will use everything it produces in a few more years. When that happens, the United States and the rest of the world will be S.O.L.!

In September, China announced its plans to lower its export quota of rare earth metals to 35,000 tons per year in 2010-2015.

Wait, it gets worse. China?s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is considering a ban on exports of terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, thulium and lutetium.

It?s part of a plan that Deng Xioping started almost two decades ago when he said that rare earth metals would ?Do for China what oil did for Saudi Arabia.?

Reason #3: A Matter of National Security. Every high-tech piece ? and I mean EVERY ? of high tech military warfare is made with rare earth metals, including precision-guided munitions, night vision goggles, radar and lasers.

If we lost our supplies of rare earth metals, our country?s ability to produce many of these weapon systems would cease to exist. Since China controls 95% of the world?s supply of rare earth metals, we are extremely vulnerable.

The General Accounting Office (GAO) said that the United States produced zero rare earth elements in 2009 and that it will take up to 15 years to rebuild our domestic rare earth supply chain.

?The United States has the expertise, but lacks the manufacturing assets and facilities to refine oxides to metals. Refined metal is almost exclusively available from China,? states the GAO.

The U.S. Magnetic Materials Association said that the United States is already in a ?silent crisis. It is unclear whether rare earth material will be available outside China in the coming years.?

In June 2009, the U.S .House of Representatives passed HR 2647, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Section 828 of the Act includes language concerning ?the availability of rare earth materials and components containing rare earth materials in the defense supply chain.?

Section 828 notes that ?less common metals? such as the rare earths and thorium were ?critical to modern technologies, including numerous defense critical technologies and these technologies cannot be built without the use of these metals and materials produced from them and therefore could qualify as strategic materials, critical to national security.?

Representative Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said ?China is a rapidly rising military and economic power and the fact is that they cornered the market on these rare earth metals that are essential for a lot of our advanced weapons systems as well as a lot of manufacturing in the United States.?

U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) said, ?We need to move aggressively on this issue now before it?s too late.?

In the coming 15 years it will take to rebuild our own rare earth metal supply chain, you can bet that our military industrial complex is going to be a big buyer and stockpiler of rare earth metals. This should put upward pressure on prices.

Reason #4: Green Energy and Rare Earth Metals. Rare earth metals are also a back door way to profit from the ?green? revolution. That is because most of the green energy initiatives cannot function without rare earth metals.

Three green technologies ? hybrid cars, solar panels, and wind turbines ? use mountains of rare earth metals.

* Hybrid vehicles, such as the Toyoto Prius and Honda Insight, are big users of rare earth metals. Each car has about 2 kg of neodymium in its rechargeable nickel hydride battery and another kilogram or so of lanthanum and praeseodimium in the drive train.

* Solar panel efficiency is measured as a percentage of light energy that is converted to electricity. Silicon solar panels are 25% efficient, but the newest generation of solar panels, called multi-junction solar panels, have efficiencies greater than 40%. These solar panels use the rare metal indium.

* Every wind turbine tower has a massive, highly engineered electromechanical system in it that couldn?t operate without lanthanoid.

Here is a link to a very informative video about the role that rare earth elements play in green energy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxZLKiQd0yk

The green-energy revolution is still in its infancy, and its inevitable growth will place huge demand for rare earth metals and send prices through the roof!

So how can you profit from the boom in rare earth metals? By investing in the company that I visited in Malaysia.

How to Profit From the Rare Earth Metals Boom:
Buy Shares of Lynas Corp.

Lyans is an Australian company that explores for, mines, processes, and distributes rare earths metals. It is about to break China?s stranglehold on the rare earth market with its Malaysian processing plant.

This new plant ? the size of 14 football fields ? will be the first rare earth metals processing facility outside China in decades!

Once completed, Lynas will have the capacity to provide 30% of the world?s demand for rare earth metals.

The stock is dirt cheap. It has ZERO debt and $288 million of cash in the bank.

Lynas isn?t making any money ? yet. But once the facility is up and running, the Malaysian government estimates that this plant will generate $1.66 billion in annual profits, which works out to 91 cents a share.

Now, 91 cents may not sound like a much, but Lynas is trading for only two times those projected earnings now. Once the Wall Street crowd catches on to this amazing gem of a company, it should trade for five, 10, or even 15 times earnings.

This $2 stock could turn into a $20 stock in 18 to 36 months.

Lynas trades on both the Australian Stock Exchange and the U.S. over-the-counter (pink sheets) market. When possible, I recommend that you buy on a stock?s home exchange. For Lynas, that means your best bet is the Australian market.

I know, however, that some people don?t like to trade outside the United States, so you can buy on the OTC market. If so, you MUST use a limit order to protect yourself from getting scalped by the market makers. Here is what you should do:

If you buy on the Australian exchange, buy 1,000 shares of Lynas Corp., symbol LYC.AX, at the market. Don?t let that big number of shares worry you because it works out to about $2,000 in U.S. dollars.

If you prefer the over-the-counter market, use a limit order and buy 1,000 shares of Lynas, symbol LYSCF.PK at 2.00 or better.

[p2r]

I think LYC has been holding up well in recent volatile days