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roget
30-01-2006, 12:36 PM
With commodities all the rage at the moment, lyc could be in the next commodity to be in demand after Uranium. They have a substantial deposit (life of mine 35 years) at Laverton WA. Most RE are sourced from China and demand is apparently outstripping supply. Certainly on my watch list.

moe
30-01-2006, 12:54 PM
I have been following Lynas for a while now and bought a parcel at 14c not long ago after watching it trend downwards then move sideways for sometime, now trading at over 20c.

Rare earth minerals are used in the manufacture of TV's, computers,healthcare products etc.

Recommend downloading a copy of the annual report and having a look at this one.

moe
30-01-2006, 12:55 PM
Also picked it in my ASX comp picks.

roget
30-01-2006, 02:28 PM
Moe, hi I have done a bit of research including reading the annual report but I always dismiss statements by a company or its officials. What sparked my interest was a few articles I found on the web from the US about how they needed to secure a source for the commodities and couldn't afford to let China monopolise them. It highlighted that while the US had companies such as Intel, GM and the defence industries using more of rare earth they didn't have a good supply and had to rely on China. I also found that Huntley's had this year done an analysis on LYC and rated it a spec buy. While there are still risks (execution and financing) the one thing that is certain unlike an explorer is the value of the assets in the ground and that open pit mining will extract it. The value of rare earth minerals has increased around 40% in the last year and China has been forced to close some of its mines due to environmental concerns. For selfish reasons :D I hope your tip comes true!!

roget
30-01-2006, 03:06 PM
Moe, and forgot to add ... chart looks fantastic! Emas have just crossed up, DMIs positive, MAvol increasing as price goes up. A/D line a little flat and would like that to be positive but can't have everything.

moe
30-01-2006, 04:23 PM
Roget do you know of other ASX companies trading in Rare Earth Minerals? Have you any good links for the sector?

I had mentioned the annual report purely as a good starter for those new to Rare Minerals and the uses for them. You would obviosly have to weigh in many other elements before investing adn do your own research.

Moonshine
30-01-2006, 04:41 PM
ARU

Nolans Bore REE deposit

roget
30-01-2006, 08:37 PM
Moe, hi as to your questions, no i don't know of another ASX companies in Rare Earth but moonshine said ARU so I suppose they meant they do. Have I looked at anyothers? No. I know there is at least one other ASX company as one of the articles i read said this. As for web sites for the articles I looked at sorry I am not that organised!! The fall in price today (1.5cents) has me a bit nervous though but I will wait to see how the chart for the full week pans out. The company according to its own timetable and Huntley's analysis is expecting to report of two milestones in this quater so I would have thought these would supported the sp.

Gofish.
30-01-2006, 08:47 PM
Hard to beat ARU and the Nolans Bore deposit for RE's.
Also Phosphate & Uranium.
Also J/V with Laramide (U), gold prospects, iron Ore royalties etc etc. Worth reading recent reports.

Dazza
30-01-2006, 09:45 PM
sorry but ARU is the best IMO...

its shot up 50%+ on the options as of late
u could have got them sub 20 cents for ALONG TIME, i know a few HC posters have hundred of thousands if not million.. of ARU options..

ended today around 27/8 cents...

sorry to say but the train has left the station..

maybe u mite be able to get on when they have their first stop..

but the gates are open and the bulls r running.

get on!

DISC: ARUO

roget
30-01-2006, 09:50 PM
Gofish, I would be appreciate your comments and corrections as to whether my figures are ok but I think each company is approximately equally weighted for share price value. ARU market cap interested me also the fact that it has gold and uranium. LYC's market cap is roughly twice that of ARU. I just read the respective reports. I must confess to being a novice at assessing all this mining stuff but LYC says it has 431,500tons recoverable REO from 917,000tons in situ @ 12% grade. Whereas ARU has 575,000 in situ with no study on how much is recoverable (ARU have proposed a study) but the recovery rate for all mines to date is, at least, less than half of in situ. The ARU grade is only 3.1%, whereas LYC is 12% (almost 3 times), given the grades I would assume that the recoverable reserves from ARU are only a quater of LYC's. LYC had cash reserves at Dec 05 of $10m and ARU less than $3m (2.5 I think).

laurie
30-01-2006, 11:27 PM
ARU REE is I believe attached to Uranium you cannot just mine REE many years ago when U price was down REE was not mined due to that fact so now mining REE is a double bonus :D

cheers laurie

Moonshine
31-01-2006, 01:20 AM
Dazza, you certainly haven't missed the boat yet for ARUO or ARU.

There is a 10 bagger in the options before the strike date... 2 years and 6 months away!

I will ceratinly be getting more.

moe
31-01-2006, 10:51 AM
I wouldnt be worried about a 1.5c decrease Roget. This stock has moved quite a bit in the previous weeks and there will be a bit of profit taking going on. It cant go up every day sadly.

Gofish.
31-01-2006, 08:59 PM
[quote]Originally posted by roget



Roget,

I don't think the 2 co's are directly comparable.
ARU's RE project is different to LYC's with Phosphate and U, and ARU are working on at least partial processing. Study currently underway for an improved processing path - todays quarterly did not specify when results would be out.
I've read a lot re ARU, and am comfortable with them, but very little on LYC, so will have a further look. There was some discussion on HC early Nov re comparison, that might be worth checking.

roget
01-02-2006, 08:06 AM
Gofish, thanks I didn't mean compareable other than in investment potential. ARU from my brief look appears to have it over LYC for diversity but just for REO and it ability to be mined LYC is preffered. Good Luck!

roget
06-02-2006, 01:09 PM
LYC just announced a sales agreement for its RED with a french company and processing arrangements for China. Can only bode well for LYC!!

moe
06-02-2006, 03:01 PM
Things are looking very good Roget. Has broke 25c.

moe
05-04-2006, 07:51 PM
Hit 30c today! Anyone else enjoying this one??

moe
10-04-2006, 10:19 PM
How far is it going to go cantab?

Am very happy at this stage obviously, although am also wary about a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon of the commodities market.

xman
10-04-2006, 11:52 PM
hi cantab, could you please shed some lights on where to find the historical Rare Earth price chart? thanks. xman

xman
11-04-2006, 10:46 PM
thanks cantab. it helps.

moe
13-04-2006, 02:40 PM
you would think that they will soon be asked for a "please explain". All good though cantab.

thereslifeafter87
20-04-2006, 01:18 PM
Interesting company.

I have had a quick look.

At 33c, they have a fully diluted market cap of about $100mill.

I can see revenue of approximately $82mill in the first year of full operation. I reach this number like this:

121,000 tpa of ore at 14.8% REO = 17,908 tonnes REO (numbers from latest presentation)

17,908tpa x US$4,960 = $88.82mill
($4.96/kg for the basket of rare earth minerals).

So, the value of what's coming out of the processor is about AU$119.32mill (at an exchange rate of 1.343)

However the presentation says only 10,500tpa of rare earth, so there must be some wasteage. If that is the case, the value of the product is AU$64.87mill.

How much value is added in the further downstream phases?

The feasibility study shows operating costs of $43mill first year (predicted revenue of $48mill less NPAT of $5mill), $56mill second year, ramping up to $71mill in year 5.

At their expected top production of 15,000tpa, this gives them revenue of $74,400,000 at todays prices. Assuming this is at year 3 operating costs, we are left with NPAT of $13mill.

This is five years away from achievement at LEAST.

So, in buying LYC you are effectively paying $100million for a possible $13million in five years time.

Thats a future pe of 7.7x. Five YEARS in the future, and they have not even secured financing yet.

The feasibility study doesn't seem to state the capex required to get the mine into production, but I would assume at least $40million.

at 50% debt/equity financing, thats another $20mill on the market cap - so $120mill.

So we have a 2011 foward PE of 9x.

This stock is horrendously overpriced. Sorry guys.

Even if rare earth materials increase in price by 50% from here, I would still say it's marginal.

roget
03-05-2006, 07:55 AM
I am particularly glad the debt with Ashton has been rescheduled. The amount wasn't even shown in their balance sheet (other than a note). LYC does have a lot of shares on issue and is very focused on one range of minerals albeit one whose value is predicted to increase. The management the thing I like about LYC, especially their experience in China. I don't hold LYC atm and considering its value (market cap) would need more good announcements re REE prices and when LYC starts to get revenue in the short term. Good Luck to all holders but I think there is better value elsewhere.

roget
05-05-2006, 01:14 PM
I switched to ARU as it also has REE but a host of other minerals as well. I also liked its market cap as compared to its price better. LYC has the better REE assets though but for overall investment ARU looked better. Time will tell as their is a little bit of disquiet over some of ARU's mangaments decisions of late and as I said previously I like LYC's management.

slam
29-05-2006, 11:38 AM
Hi All
Behre Dolbear Australia Complete Independent Tech. Review

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&timeFrameSearchType=Y&year=2006&issuerCode=LYC

Interesting Reading

Cheers
Slam

roget
29-05-2006, 02:26 PM
Hi Slam, I have read the Behre Dolbear Australia Complete Independent Tech. Review and don't like the fact that it is a desk top review only. Which to my understanding means no on site inspections of logistical enquiries.

Bobco
20-10-2006, 11:20 AM
And their valuation is 61, makes 'em pretty cheap atm.
bobco-holder

moe
20-10-2006, 08:17 PM
Will be interesting to see how well they stick with the timetable. Still a lot of water to go under the bridge before first sales.

Gofish.
06-11-2006, 08:39 PM
ARU jumped 20% today - but I think its U driven, nothing to do with RE's.

denpal
14-11-2006, 08:44 PM
Interesting, LYC has pulled back quite a bit since the run up last week, great buying on fundamentals.

They also have the massive REM/Niobium deposit to exploit once the REE is up and running. Got to be a strategic buy medium term.

cantab
29-12-2006, 11:03 AM
Yanks buying up yet again

moe
29-12-2006, 03:27 PM
wow! u get away from technology for 10 days and look what u come back to. great stuff

cantab
20-01-2007, 11:34 AM
Canberra tackles China on space war

AUSTRALIA has demanded that China explain its plans for developing and deploying weapons systems, following the first known satellite-killing test in space in more than 20 years.

For the first time, China's military used a ground-based missile to destroy one of its ageing satellites orbiting about 860 kilometres in space last week - a high-stakes test demonstrating its ability to target regions of space that are home to US spy satellites and space-based anti-missile systems.

The test of anti-satellite technology raised concerns about the vulnerability of satellites from other countries, and a possible arms race in space.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/canberra-tackles-china-on-space-war/2007/01/19/1169095977596.html



The missiles require rare earths and China controls 95% of world production which makes the US military vulnerable.

cantab
29-01-2007, 06:23 PM
Signfifcant buying in LYC over the last few days.

denpal
29-01-2007, 08:00 PM
Yes I suspect Rare Earths time is coming very soon as the latest investment craze. Cousin ARU has also done extremely well lately, although mainly caused by their upcoming NUPOWER Uranium in-specie spinoff.

Global warming I see will result in a huge shift to electric vehicles topped up from the grid to reduce greenhouse emissions over the next decade: very good news for REE's and Uranium.

The key is having the patience to allow the investment to mature.

cantab
30-01-2007, 08:17 AM
Denpal, I have read that the vehicle manufacturers such as Toyota are planning for significant expansions in production of hybrid vehicles. An increasing percentage of people will want to be seen to be doing their bit for the planet.

The major shareholder names say a lot about the prospects of LYC.

denpal
30-01-2007, 05:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by cantab

Denpal, I have read that the vehicle manufacturers such as Toyota are planning for significant expansions in production of hybrid vehicles. An increasing percentage of people will want to be seen to be doing their bit for the planet.

The major shareholder names say a lot about the prospects of LYC.






Electric vehicles will end up with better acceleration than petrol ones, lots of torque at low speeds delivered. Actually I think people will really enjoy having electric vehicles, quiet too.

cantab
31-01-2007, 05:15 PM
Geez, like these 500,000 and 1m buy bids. Currently a 1m buy order at 64.5c[:p]

Company says reasonable volume going through in the company's shares over the counter in America.

Lots of significant milestones planned to occur in the March quarter.

cantab
02-02-2007, 11:56 AM
Hit 70c this morning, currently 69c, big volumes - Americans buying?

cantab
16-02-2007, 09:33 AM
Nice investor presentation yesterday, Huntleys upgrades to accumulate - "The ‘perfect storm’ of a structural shortfall in supply, fiscal imposts and very strong growth in demand could deliver substantial gains."

The share price has already riden from 7c to a high of 70c over 15 months, market cap now $270m

Huntleys say that if LYC increase production to 20,000 tpa the net profit would be in excess of $100m

Mining campaign starts next quarter, commissioning of rare earths processing plant in Malaysia planned for H2 2008

LYC say that their Crown metal resource right beside their proposed rare earths mine has a metal content of over $50 billion! Scoping study completed, further work to commence later this year.

slam
16-02-2007, 10:00 AM
Thanks Cantab (one myself):)
Got into this 28c, so not at the beginning but still happy with the progress.
Happy holder
Cheers
Slam

cantab
16-02-2007, 10:57 AM
Hi Slam, yes 7c would have been nice

LYC have some significant revenue and cost advantages over their Chinese competitors (95% of world supply):

LYC rare earths content 12% compared with Chinese 5%

Value per ton 22% higher than Chinese

27% revenue advantage on world markets compared with Chinese (VAT 17% and export tarrif 10%)

Chinese are limited by producton and export quotas

LYC rare earths significantly more environmentally friendly than Chinese rare earths due to lower Flourine and Thorium content

LYC expect to be granted a 10 year tax holiday from Malaysian government

Cost of re-agents, water and electricity lower in Malaysia although labour cost is higher.

LYC also has major institutional support - Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Ospraie Advisors and RAB Capital are on the register

cantab
20-02-2007, 11:37 PM
The Australian government is looking at phasing out standard lightbulbs and replacing with compact fluorescent bulbs which require rare earths. This will reduce the demand for electricity and in turn carbon emissions.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/lights-out-for-standard-bulbs-turnbull/2007/02/20/1171733741221.html

cantab
21-02-2007, 11:57 AM
Things looking bright for LYC today:

A Brighter Place

Energy efficient lighting is a major application of Rare Earth phosphors. The compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) uses only a quarter of the power needed to produce the same amount of light as the standard incandescent light bulb. The potential of this application is best described by former President of the United States, Bill Clinton, “In our country, 20 per cent of all electricity is consumed by lighting. If every home replaced every incandescent light bulb with a compact fluorescent one, which costs three times as much, lasts 10 times as long, emits one third as much greenhouse gases, every purchaser of a light bulb would save 25 to 40 per cent, no matter how many bulbs they purchased, just as long they were being used. And we would cut the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to lighting in America by 50 per cent.”

http://www.lynascorp.com/application.asp?category_id=1&page_id=7&app_id=2

denpal
21-02-2007, 03:39 PM
cantab,

Do you know which REE's are used in the compact flouro's? I can see this will be a world-wide trend, as Aus will now ban incandescents in 3 years time as not meeting the energy efficiency standard.

This is such an example of plain common sense as to be mindboggling - I didn't think politicians were so smart..............OK so what does this mean for LYC (and ARU of course!)?

cantab
21-02-2007, 11:07 PM
Denpal,

From the Lynas website:

The main rare earths are Yttrium and Europium. Smaller quantities of another 5 elements may be added. LYC has Europium.

Yes this is likely to be the start of a worldwide trend. A bit strange that instead of a cost there is a financial benefit for protecting the environment. The consumer benefits financially as does the nation - need less power stations so save on capital cost, also marginal cost of electricity can be high, polluting and require foreign exchange, for example burning of oil to generate electricity.

Lynas forecast demand for REO used in CFLs increasing from 1846 tonnes pa in 2005 to 3779 tonnes in 2010. Lynas project global demand for all rare earths to be 150,000 tonnes by 2010 with supply only 100,000 tonnes.

cantab
15-03-2007, 01:49 PM
Good news for LYC:

NAB to cut greenhouse impact
Carrie LaFrenz
March 14, 2007 11:00pm


THE nation's largest bank, National Australia Bank, aims to cut the group's carbon emissions, reducing its greenhouse gas impact to zero by 2010.

NAB Australia chief executive officer Ahmed Fahour said the bank would buy hybrid cars to use in its fleet, reduce energy use in offices and branches and buy up to 10 per cent green energy.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,21383456-3122,00.html


GM urges govt investment in batteries
March 15, 2007 - 7:04AM

The US government should invest heavily in new battery technology to power electric cars and lower gasoline use, the chairman and chief executive of General Motors Corp. says.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/GM-urges-govt-investment-in-batteries/2007/03/15/1173722596686.html

cantab
30-03-2007, 11:25 AM
quote:Originally posted by denpal

cantab,

Do you know which REE's are used in the compact flouro's? I can see this will be a world-wide trend, as Aus will now ban incandescents in 3 years time as not meeting the energy efficiency standard.

This is such an example of plain common sense as to be mindboggling - I didn't think politicians were so smart..............OK so what does this mean for LYC (and ARU of course!)?


Denpal, see the LYC website for an analyst's update on the impact on LYC of the switch to CFL's.

moe
30-03-2007, 02:41 PM
This stock is on track to be my first ten bagger.

Just wait for this global warming hysteria thing to really kick off an this will rocket.

slam
30-03-2007, 03:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by moe

This stock is on track to be my first ten bagger.
....


Moe
if it is close to a ten bagger already, you may get a twenty bagger out of it;)

Nice rise today

Cheers
Slam

moe
03-04-2007, 01:42 PM
2 announcements out today, tax exemption from malaysian government, all good.

moe
11-04-2007, 11:32 AM
Broke $1.00 today!!

denpal
11-04-2007, 01:42 PM
quote:Originally posted by moe

Broke $1.00 today!!


Rare Earths are HAULING!! Look at ARU today too.

Tip: Look at NAV, they have a very prospective REE deposit with historic drill results that is being drilled this month to JORC. Free-call on REE as NAV is primarily a fairly priced IMHO gold junior.

cantab
11-04-2007, 05:43 PM
Speeding ticket, company thinks that a report by a US based well respected US financial market commentator may have generated significant interest in the company by international investors.

donnie
12-04-2007, 04:32 PM
this is from theanchorhouse.com 10/10/06

By Clint Cox

In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, then ruler of China, put the world on notice with the following statement:

“There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China.” What does this statement mean? We know that oil is crucial for modern civilization – this is no secret. Oil gets a lot of media attention, and it affects the consumer at the pump. Although there are other players, the Middle East clearly leads this sector with approximately 40% of the current world production total. We felt the power of Middle East domination and control during the 1970s with long gas lines, shortages and price hikes. OPEC, with varying degrees of success, tries to maintain price control in the marketplace today. Oil is clearly a strategic resource, and it is problematic that the Middle East controls so much of it – however, the situation with rare earth elements (REE) is far more dramatic and concerning.

What relevance do rare earth elements have in present society?



Imagine your world without:

*iPod

*laptop computers

*TVs

*cell phones

*modern transportation



Now picture the medical field without:

*magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)

*computed tomography (CT) scans

*contrast agents that enhance the images

The military requires rare earth in a significant way as it has become increasingly reliant on its widespread use: *range detectors *lasers*advanced aircraft materials*guided missiles*smart bombs*protective coatings

*blast protection



All of the above are dependent on REE. Rare earths are giving the research scientists, computer developers, and military commanders capabilities only dreamed of a few decades ago, and are proving to be an absolutely essential component in shaping modern and future technology.

Magnetic refrigeration, made possible by REE magnets, will soon allow for huge leaps in efficiency. Hybrid cars will each require anywhere from 20-80 pounds of rare earth materials. The future of computing technology is dependent on rare earth magnets and the miniaturized disk drive. These are just a few of the 100s of uses for rare earths.

Now for the scary stuff:

China currently produces approximately 97% of the world’s supply of REE. Based on the above uses, rare earths give China an overwhelming advantage in technology both now and in the future. Perhaps this wouldn’t be so devastating if China simply exported the stuff for profit like many resource-rich countries. Quite the opposite – the Chinese unmistakably understand the strategic value of rare earths and have been positioning themselves for years take full advantage of the situation. Chinese President Jiang Zemin made the following statement during his 1999 visit to the rare earth rich Baotou region of China, “Improve the development and applications of rare earth, and change the resource advantage into economic superiority.” According to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, since the early 1990s Beijing has commenced a “detailed strategy to control the rare earth market”. China has done more than just talk – they dropped their prices to cost (driving other world mines out of business), hired between 1000 and 2000 dedicated rare earth scientists, built the world’s most massive REE devoted research facilities, dramatically increased their own consumption, and have begun to cut exports.

Some US officials are aware of the problem, but the US has neither a detailed strategy nor the initiative and resources to contend with this current predicament.

Currently the US imports 100% of its rare earth resources (95% from China) and has no stockpile. The US can’t really get tough with China while they control such a vital resource. There just aren’t many options available. The US used to have a rare earth mine at Mountain Pass, California, but it was closed a few years ago. It’s not like we can just open it back up and process the elements into concentrated form.

The Attempted Takeover of Unocal by Chinese CNOOC Wasn’t A

cantab
12-04-2007, 10:57 PM
Donnie, interesting that Chevron acquired Mountain pass in California in 2005 as part of Unocal. Chevron say they operate an open pit rare earths mine at Mountain Pass. This conflicts with statements 'out there' that Mountain Pass is closed. Perhaps it only operates at limited capacity. Does anyone out there know? The question is with a major shortfall in some rare earths looming can supply suddenly be switched on because of much higher prices caused by increasing demand at the same time that the Chinese impose production and export quotas and export tarrifs?

http://www.chevron.com/about/our_businesses/mining.asp

Further to the company's response to the speeding ticket, the ASX asked Lynas further questions about who knew what and when. The ASX received a complaint.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the big seller runs out of the shares they received in the placement at 31c. Today's announcement shows 22m shares to go - they started with 65m shares on 11/8/06. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase still own 22% of LYC

I have owned my shares for 14 months and IMHO the future looks bright just like CFL's. In a few years time it wont be possible to buy an ordinary light bulb in NZ, OZ or Europe as a result of recent announcements.

cantab
18-04-2007, 09:52 AM
Lynas up 10% in Frankfurt on volume of 5m shares.

cantab
18-04-2007, 11:25 AM
China which produces 95% of world supply of rare earths has only 15 years reserves remaining based on current production rates and economic growth rates. No wonder then that the Chinese government has imposed production and export quotas and more recently export tarrifs. This is a strategic resource and a competitive advantage for China. For some of the rare earths, such as those used for powerful magnets, there is no known substitute.

cantab
18-04-2007, 05:29 PM
Announcement out today:

Lynas Awards Mining Works Contract

Lynas Corporation Limited is pleased to announce the award of a Mining Works contract to Roche Mining Pty. Ltd. Roche is a division of Downer EDI Limited.

The contract is for the mining and stockpiling of waste and ore at Lynas' Mount Weld Rare Earths mine near Laverton, Western Australia.

Roche will commence mobilisation to site at the end of April 2007 and it is anticipated that mining will commence in June 2007.

cantab
07-05-2007, 09:42 PM
Currently trading on Frankfurt at 64.9 Euros which equates to about $1.07

The company exercised its right to issue 87.5m shares at a price of 40c last Friday for the 8.25% convertible notes that were listed on the Singapore stock exchange.

Reasonable to expect some former convertible noteholders will sell.

cantab
17-05-2007, 03:08 PM
Half the worlds production of Rare Earths has been halted:

Rare Earths prices increased 12% over the Chinese May day holiday, with Lynas’ Mount Weld Rare Earths composition price passing through the US$10/kg mark by jumping from US$9.43/kg to US$10.58/kg in one week

Baotou mixed Rare Earths carbonate production halted due to water issues

Sichuan region Rare Earths mining and concentrate production stopped by local government

The Directors of Lynas Corporation (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) wish to advise the Mount Weld Rare Earths composition price has passed through the US$10/kg mark and is currently US$10.58/kg.

The company has confirmed media reports that both Baotou and Sichuan Rare Earths production regions are experiencing production stoppages.
It has been reported that mixed Rare Earths carbonate production has stopped in Baotou due to water issues. Lynas understands the water issues relate to the Government authorities’ tighter supervision to protect the water system of the Yellow River from contamination associated with waste water discharge from local mixed Rare Earths carbonate plants. The mixed Rare Earths carbonate from Baotou is the feed for the majority of the Rare Earths separation plants in China.
Lynas estimates that approximately 20,000 tonnes of Rare Earth Oxide (REO) per annum may be affected by the shutdown.
This supply constraint has been compounded by reports that the Sichuan Rare Earths regional production has been stopped by the local government due to industry restructuring issues within
the region. Lynas understands that the local government had planned to consolidate the small mining and concentration operations into four groups within this region; however it appears this plan has stalled. The consequences appear to be a local government order to cease all production. Sichuan accounts for approximately 25,000 tonnes of REO per annum. The actual extent of the shutdown is not yet known and the duration of the shutdown is uncertain.

tobo
17-05-2007, 07:04 PM
( I also put this on HC)
... I struggle to understand what China is trying to do.

On the one hand they seem to have a national strategy to protect their industries by limiting exports of REs. This would suggest they would have a coordinated objective to maximise their RE production.
On the other hand, they seem to be letting local effects (driven by local enviromental issues, safety issues, or local politics) significantly run down total production. It's almost like they are hurting themselves and letting it happen. (Good for LYC, clearly, but it could be quite traumatic for global supply of the products that the REOs are used for.)
Is it that I just don't appreciate how big Chnia is, and do not appreciate the extent to which local control exists independent of 'national' control. I guess this is the new free economy China?

Any thoughts on how coordinated China's strategy on managing their precious near-monopoly might be?

cantab
17-05-2007, 08:54 PM
I recall reading recently that there have been many incidents of local Chinese getting stroppy over pollution in the rivers.

I also read that China has only a limited number of years supply of rare earths.

Export quotas and tarrifs will encourage overseas enterprises to relocate to China to get access to rare earths and at competitive prices.

It is in China's interests to limit exports. Less production means less available for export.

cantab
17-05-2007, 09:02 PM
Change in substantial holding from Goldman Sachs. They collected 16.25m shares from the conversion of the convertible notes at 40c and sold 21m shares at $1

cantab
25-05-2007, 10:29 AM
New York's yellow taxis to go green
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Updated: 4:12 a.m. ET May 23, 2007

New York's yellow cabs are to become hybrid cars within five years under a scheme to make the city the greenest in the US.

Michael Bloomberg, the city's mayor, announced the shift to hybrid technology – which powers cars using a combination of fuel and *electric batteries – in a bid to cut emissions by more than half over the next *decade.

Of the 13,000 yellow cabs on New York streets, only 375 are hybrids. Mr Bloomberg said that number would rise to 1,000 by the end of 2008 and a further 20 per cent of the fleet would go hybrid each subsequent year until 2012. The estimated 50,000 other licensed cabs in the city will not as yet be required to make the shift.

Mr Bloomberg, a potential presidential candidate, said the government had failed to act on fuel efficiency.

"What we are trying to do is make the world a better place without waiting for Washington," he said. "If government does it then *private companies realise it is in their best interest as well."

Mr Bloomberg plans to make New York more sustainable by 2030, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent between now and then.

He has already said that Manhattan will adopt a trial version of congestion charges for cars and trucks, modelled on London's pioneering scheme.

New York will not be the first city to adopt greener taxis – Tokyo already has an "eco-taxi" fleet, as does *Vancouver. However, New York says its scheme is the largest in the world.

The city estimates that the increased fuel efficiency of the cars, at 30 miles per gallon as opposed to the current vehicles which run at 14mpg, will save the average taxi operator $10,000 per year. Average US cars run at 24 mpg.

Most of the city's yellow taxis are Ford Crown Victorias, which cost $23,000 plus around $2,000 of modifications to turn them into cabs.

Hybrid models tested in the city's fleet over the past 18 months can come in at much higher prices. The Toyota Prius retails from $22,175, the Toyota Highlander Hybrid sells for $32,490 and the Lexus RX 400h costs from $41,180.

The idea seems to have gained support among some of the city's cab drivers: "Everybody likes it," said Mohammed Babar, a cabbie for about 18 months. "The hybrid is low-fuel, so everybody's saying 'After this car, maybe I go hybrid'."

.....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18807520/

cantab
29-05-2007, 11:39 AM
Price of Mt Weld rare earths rising nicely, up 30% in past two months:

US$/Kg

2005 - $4.44
2006 - $6.64
Q1/2007 - $8.93
28/5/07 - $11.64

Price updated weekly on:

http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25

moe
29-05-2007, 02:39 PM
A decent rise over the last couple of days for LYC Cantab.

Its funny how everyone ramps the old oil and nickel stocks but hardly anyone has talked about LYC or Rare Earths. I bought in at 14-20c, now trading over $1.00 and plenty more left to run in my opinion.

cantab
29-05-2007, 03:17 PM
Hi Moe, it's perhaps not surprising that there isn't much interest, because people can relate to oil and nickel, but rare earths? Very few people have even heard of them. If people were to wake up then it could get interesting. The big boys are onto it though.

Well done on your prices. I pondered for a bit before buying in February last year.

moe
30-05-2007, 10:00 AM
First supply contract signed, announced today, might be a bit of a run today Cantab.

slam
30-05-2007, 10:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by moe

First supply contract signed, announced today, might be a bit of a run today Cantab.


Hi Moe/Cantab

Just what we need[8D]
Go LYC

Cheers
Slam

cantab
01-06-2007, 05:32 PM
Moe/Slam, more good news for LYC, according to this report China will increase its export tax on rare earths from 10% to 15% as from today.

China to increase rare metals' export tax
Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-05-29 09:30

China will raise export taxes on a range of rare metal products, including tungsten, rare earth, and molybdenum, from June 1, in a bid to protect resources from running out, said Wu Rongqing, an official with the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.

The policy says the increased export tax on tungsten, rare-earth, and molybdenum is 15 percent, and tariffs on molybdenum oxide, ammonium molybdate, and natrium molybdate range from a five to 15 percent increase compared with the tax rebate policy on rare metals in the 1980s and 1990s.

The export tariff on tungsten increased to 15 percent from 10 percent, which is the fourth export tax increase since last year.

China supplies more than 70 percent of tungsten, but new figures show China only accounts for 35.5 percent of the world's basic reserves, dropping from 45 percent years ago. Meanwhile, domestic tungsten consumption has increased as well, with 23,500 tons in 2006, up 5.4 percent from that of 1997.

As for rare earth, China canceled the tax rebate in 2005, and collected a 10 percent export tariff on rare-earth oxide in November 2006. But export volumes still soared, a nine-fold increase from 1990.

Experts predict that Baotou Baiyunebo thulium reserves, the world's largest rare-earth reserve, will disappear in 30 years at current speed of consumption. And rare-earth resources in Ganzhou City, East China's Jiangxi Province, will be used up in 20 years.

The government will keep increasing rare metal's export rate according to market situations, said Wu, adding the extent will depend on the practical effects brought by current export taxes.

http://en.ce.cn/Business/Macro-economic/200705/29/t20070529_11525290.shtml

cantab
04-06-2007, 11:28 AM
quote:Originally posted by cantab

Price of Mt Weld rare earths rising nicely, up 30% in past two months:

US$/Kg

2005 - $4.44
2006 - $6.64
Q1/2007 - $8.93
28/5/07 - $11.64

Price updated weekly on:

http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25




Todays price 4/6/07 - $12.51 - up 7.5% in one week! [:p]

cantab
06-06-2007, 11:14 PM
Price Kg

4/6/07 $12.64

6/6/07 $13.28

+5% in 2 days

[:p]

shasta
06-06-2007, 11:49 PM
Cantab

I have LYC on my watchlist, & came across an article suggesting rare earth price increases of 40 - 80% during 2008, due to a shortage in supply.

Will post the article in full when i find it.

cantab
07-06-2007, 01:27 PM
Hi Shasta,

Are you referring to the Research report on the Lynas site?

Quote from p1

"It is expected that the value of a ton of rare earths from Mt. Weld will increase by approximately 40% to 80% by 2008."

That report was written in 2006 and in just the last five months alone the price of rare earths has already doubled.

There have been rumours that China could place a complete export ban on at least six rare earth elements.

http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264094

shasta
07-06-2007, 05:05 PM
That was the one, Cantab!

Had read it & was looking at LYC & ARU, as im looking for a Rare Earths company.

Thanks for posting that.

Viking
08-06-2007, 10:33 AM
The report also spoke of NAV, what's everyone's view on NAV as oppose to LYC. NAV has already have Gold and prospect for U and ROE~ Though it might seem, according to the report, LYC has higher grade of ROE~~~
[?][?][?] very puzzled~[:o)]
Both these stock trade in a very similar pattern in the last year~ coming from 20/30 cents to about $1 at the moment~ be interesting if we put the two chart together~ though LYC might be trading around 10c higher than NAV

cantab
10-06-2007, 11:04 AM
Hybrid cars the go as fuel price rockets
Josh Dowling
June 10, 2007
SMH

Conrad and Jane Silvester, husband and wife operators of the East Orange post office, liked the Prius so much they bought two.

"I can tell you why they're selling - ours has nearly paid for itself in fuel savings alone," Mr Silvester said.



http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/hybrid-cars-the-go-as-fuel-price-rockets/2007/06/09/1181089388315.html

From the Lynas website:

"Overall a typical hybrid vehicle contains approximately 15-16kg of Rare Earths, with the majority contained in the batteries. A typical NiMH battery would use over 12kg of Rare Earths. Therefore USA demand for Rare Earths from the battery alone could grow to approximately 25,000 tonnes in 2010."

http://www.lynascorp.com/application.asp?category_id=1&page_id=10&app_id=3

Huang Chung
10-06-2007, 11:56 AM
Now if Toyota could only make the Prius look half decent, they'd sell a ton more. ;)

cantab
10-06-2007, 04:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by Huang Chung

Now if Toyota could only make the Prius look half decent, they'd sell a ton more. ;)





Some photos of the 2007 Toyota Prius here:

http://www.toyota.com/prius/exterior.html

cantab
18-06-2007, 07:49 PM
Rare Earths price continues to rise, now US$13.64kg

http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=1&page_id=25

2007 Lexus LS600h Hybrid

http://www.automobilemag.com/new_car_previews/2007/0605_lexus_ls600h/

cantab
22-06-2007, 11:28 AM
LYC to record high, now $1.31

slam
22-06-2007, 11:48 AM
quote:Originally posted by cantab

LYC to record high, now $1.31




$1.37 :D
Any reason other than a great stock with great resources cantab?

Lovin the ride
Slam

cantab
22-06-2007, 12:22 PM
Slam, I think roget was onto it when he decided on the title for this topic. I can't see any specific reason for the rise.

Interesting that this topic and the one on HC are pretty lonely places to be, so I wonder what might happen if people were to cotton on to what is happening with rare earths.

I recall a recent announcement from Lynas saying that in their long term contract negotiations with customers they are finding that customers aren't concerned about the price of those rare earth elements that are in short supply - they just want them.

moe
22-06-2007, 06:04 PM
It's been a good couple of days chaps. Perhaps people are switching on the Rare Earths. Good thing as I've taken one up the ringer the last fortnight with AGM.

Rif-Raf
22-06-2007, 06:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by cantab


Interesting that this topic and the one on HC are pretty lonely places to be, so I wonder what might happen if people were to cotton on to what is happening with rare earths.


It's not lonely.I think there's a few people that are quietly waking up to this story. Just doubled my holding last week, glad I didn't leave it till last couple of days!

cantab
22-06-2007, 09:33 PM
That's great, looks like we might have enough for a scrum. :)

slam
23-06-2007, 12:00 AM
quote:Originally posted by moe

..... Good thing as I've taken one up the ringer the last fortnight with AGM.


me as well moe with agm[B)]
still sitting on a good profit, but hard to grit it out.

Think theres a few of us into this, maybe even enough for a game of 7's cantab[8D]

tobo
23-06-2007, 08:29 AM
RE demand is going to outstrip supply, and someone's going to miss out. That spells price pressure (upwards!)
Hard to say when customers will start to put up resistance to successive price rises, potential to go a long way yet. Go you beauty.

cantab
25-06-2007, 11:57 AM
Tobo, the good thing is that for some rare earths such as the powerful magnets there is no substitute - just pay up. [:p]

More good news - rare earths price up 3% on last week and 57% on 3 months ago

This week US$14.05

Last Week US$13.64

Last Quarter US$8.93

With Lynas cost of production around US$4.50kg things are loooking up.

cantab
02-07-2007, 03:28 PM
Mt Weld rare earths up 1% for the week to US$14.18kg.

That's 59% for the quarter. [:p]

Go LYC

Go TEAM NZ

Go the ALL BLACKS

cantab
03-07-2007, 09:02 AM
LYC closed in Frankfurt at .9280 Euros = $1.47

on volume of 3.2m shares

slam
06-07-2007, 11:35 AM
All looking good cantab
Got a price on the plant and got financing :D

Cheers
Slam

cantab
06-07-2007, 11:43 AM
Looking really good Slam. [:p]

No need to come to us shareholders for money plus minimal dilution with the convertible note facility of $115m which convert to shares at $1.55!

A $200m Malaysian processing plant, WOW, wonder if they will be doing tours? :D

slam
06-07-2007, 11:46 AM
might have to use up some air points and go and see our new plant when it's finished:D

roget
06-07-2007, 07:27 PM
from my reading of the financing deal the dilution could be a fairly substantial given the interest payable and risk (low I think). The shares closed today at $1.46 so if converted in two years the lender gets both a good rate of capitalised interest (for the next 2 years) and then a lot of shares. LYC already has a lot of paper on issue.

cantab
06-07-2007, 11:40 PM
Extract from the Lynas announcement:

"Lynas is the world’s only viable producer and processor of Rare Earths outside of China"

Go LYC

Go the ALL BLACKS

cantab
07-07-2007, 12:09 AM
The following is an interesting perspective from the demand side of the rare earth equation, specifically the demand for powerful magnets:

Why Rare Earth Prices are Likely to Continue Their Upward Trend

Magnetics 2007 Conference April 4-5, 2007 Chicago, Illinois

Presented by

Walter T. Benecki Consultant to the Worldwide Magnetics Industry

http://www.waltbenecki.com/uploads/Why_Rare_Earth_Prices_are_Likely_to_Continue.pdf


Go LYC

Go the ALL BLACKS

tobo
24-07-2007, 07:39 PM
SP seems to be holding. Do you think this is all due to RE price/demand?

Tobo. ARU/LYC/NAV

Rif-Raf
24-07-2007, 09:25 PM
quote:Originally posted by tobo

SP seems to be holding. Do you think this is all due to RE price/demand?

Tobo. ARU/LYC/NAV

Yep, Price of RE still edging up, now $14.33 so all good

cantab
27-07-2007, 06:58 PM
Who sold their shares at 1.11[?]

Couple of significant announcements out today:

1. Secures US$105m debt facility so all funding in place for the Malaysian processing facility.

Extract:

Lynas Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said:

“The facility from HVB is a major achievement for Lynas. It underscores the financial robustness of the Rare Earths project and secures the company’s ability to develop a globally significant position as a key supplier in the Rare Earths industry.”

2. Activities report

Extract: (last paragraph is particularly juicy [:p])

RARE EARTHS MARKET
As discussed last quarter, the Chinese Government Rare Earths mining quota has the potential to severely reduce and tighten the Rare Earths supply situation due to the Chinese dominance with over 95% of global supply. A recent announcement by a large Rare Earths magnet powder producer indicated they are to raise their magnet powder prices by 25-30%, effective August 2007.

The magnet powder producer stated the reason for this price increase was due to increased raw material costs, caused primarily by a reduction in the supply from China. Their statement supports the views that the Chinese Government mining quotas are being enforced effectively.

RARE EARTHS PRICES
All Rare Earths prices increased this quarter due to increasingly tight raw material supply. Notable increases over the last quarter were neodymium oxide 29%, praseodymium oxide 34%, cerium oxide 37%, lanthanum oxide 22%, and europium oxide 22%.

The Mt Weld composition average quarterly price increased to US$11.39/kg, or 28% over the three months of the quarter. The current Mt Weld composition price is US$14.33/kg, indicating the quarterly average price should continue to rise next quarter in similar magnitudes.

The raw material for separation plants in China, mixed Rare Earths carbonate at 44% REO, has increased to US$4,200/tonne, which represents a 70% increase over the three months of the quarter. This cost increase is likely to flow through to Rare Earths prices in the near future.

tobo
29-07-2007, 12:21 PM
In April 06 thereslifeafter87 presented a summary of forecast income and resulting forward PE, which did not seem attractive to him at the time.

I though I'd try to update that.
Based on mkt cap of about $700, I come out with a PE of 7 in 3rd Q 2009 and PE of 4 in 3rd Qtr 2010.

Details of calc:
Revenue (July07) US$14.33/kg say A$16. Forecast op costs (May07 presentation) A$5.50/kg.
Overheads : say similar to FY2006 salaries & expenses A$4.5m.[pluses & minus]. Add external Crown expl expense, say A$5m?
Rev A$16 less op costs A$5.50 = A$10.50 x 10,500T = A$110m Gross Margin less overheads $10m = A$100m = PE 7 for 3Q09 (after 6mth ramp up).
Full prodn 3Q2010 : add 9,500T @ GM A$10.50 = A$100m. Total $200m = PE 4 for 3Q 2010.
Sensitivity : Future price increase Add 50% price increase (add A$8), result : A$360m in 2010 = PE 2 ? What? (excludes Crown value).

Does anyone spot a figure that ought to be changed?

Rif-Raf
29-07-2007, 06:45 PM
Tobo,

Volumes you quote are annualised volumes capacity so yes would agree.
Although recognise that the total reserves are finite so is using PE tally appropriate, however with reserves being 500,000 (20,000 pa) 25years, so guess to use PE is fine.

Tax, you haven't allowed for tax, however tax free break in Malaysia for 10 years so sounds about right.

Assume your opex covers depreciation etc.

cantab
30-07-2007, 12:02 AM
Japan to launch first hybrid trains

http://www.smh.com.au/news/World/Japan-to-launch-first-hybrid-trains/2007/07/29/1185647720628.html

tobo
30-07-2007, 06:11 AM
Rif-Raf,
Oh, no, I didn't add depreciation. Or interest...
I need to add costs not included in "operating costs"

From Lynas Chairman's Presentation June 07:
Forecast operating costs, from mine to separated product inclusive, is estimated at US$4 –US$5/kg REO
Total forecast operating costs (±10%) US$ 4.50/ kg REO
Forecast operating costs, from mine to separated product inclusive, is estimated at US$4 –US$5/kg REO
- Mt Weld costs (A$ exposure) 4%
- Transportation (mine to plant) (US$ exposure) 14%
- Concentration (MYR, US$, and RMB exposure) 7%
- Cracking and initial separation (MYR and US$ exposure) 47%
- Separation and finishing (MYR and US$ exposure) 28%

So, what costs are not included?
Salaries & exps (were A$4.5m 2006) (presume operating staff include in op exps?)Say $6m
Int $115m @6.85% pa = $8m pa
Depr $15m pa?
R&M - increase as depr reduces
External Crown exploration expense, say A$5m?

Tax 10% in Malaysia
Tax 30?% in Aus
(Kiwis don't get franking credits)

So, that's:
- Salaries & exps = $6m
- Int $115m @6.85% pa = $8m pa
- Depr & R&M = $15m pa
- External Crown exploration expense, say A$5m
Total A$34m instead of $10m in my prev posting.

A$110m Gross Margin less overheads $34m = A$76m = PE 9 for 3Q09 (after 6mth ramp up).
Full prodn 3Q2010 : add 9,500T @ GM A$10.50 = A$100m. Total $176m = PE 4 for 3Q 2010.

less tax.

cantab
01-08-2007, 11:27 AM
Nice announcement out this morning:

1 August 2007

Lynas Signs US$200 Million Rare Earths Supply Contract

Key Points:

• Second customer supply contract signed for Rare Earths project
• Contract value in excess of US$200 million, over five years
• Minimum floor price in contract, with no maximum ceiling price
• Important contract in the growing Rare Earths magnet market

Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) is pleased to announce the signing of the company’s second supply contract with a significant Rare Earths customer for the supply of Mt Weld Rare Earths to be produced from the company’s Malaysian processing plant.
The contract is a long term five year contract with a value in excess of US$200 million over five years based on current prices. The contracted sales cover neodymium and praseodymium which are key elements for the Rare Earths magnet industry. The pricing structure of the contract is related to the market price; however it includes a minimum floor price, without a maximum ceiling price, for the product sales over the term of the contract.

Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, believes that the signing of the contract is another key milestone for the company and the Rare Earths project:

“The Rare Earths magnet market is growing very strongly at fifteen percent per annum which is forecast to continue for the next five years. This is an important market for the company and it gives certainty to the company’s cash flows. The Board is delighted the company has signed a long term supply agreement in this market”, Mr Curtis said.

The company continues to be actively engaged with additional potential customers in Europe, Japan and the USA.

slam
01-08-2007, 12:01 PM
Good ann
and managed to pick up a few more on last weeks dip[8D]

Cheers
Slam

seaosh
01-08-2007, 12:03 PM
So rare earths are used in NiMH batteries for hybrid cars. What about Li-ion batteries?

If reserves of rare earths really are limited to just a couple of decades supply at present extraction rates it seems impossible for heavy rare-earth using hybrid car technology to ever become mainstream. The increased demand would soon use up all available supply.

What are the prospects for finding more rare earth supplies outside of China?

tobo
01-08-2007, 12:51 PM
Rare Earths are not that rare. What is difficult is finding concentrations that are economic to mine and separate.
If we start to run out, prices go up, and uneconomic concentrations become economic.
Even that sequence of events is good for LYC, as prices go up.

seaosh
01-08-2007, 01:06 PM
OK, so in the bigger picture China's monopoly on this resource might be a bit exaggerated? I'm referring to the scare mongering tone of the Clint Cox article referenced on page 3 of this thread. Perhaps the Chinese have a near monopoly for now, but if prices go up other supplies could come on line?

Anyone know if Li-ion batteries also use rare earths? I'm wondering whether less need for rare earths could become another point in favor of Li-ion batteries in the future, potentially benefiting lithium producers like ADY.

tobo
01-08-2007, 08:26 PM
I read the "Rare Earths are not that rare, just hard to find in economic concentrations" argument in some primers on RE. I get the feeling from further reading that the bit about not being rare is more a geological viewpoint, and that there probably is quite some barriers to leaping into the RE production : finding resources takes time, and then do you just sell the useless mixture cheap or spend more time designing and building plant to separate it.

Individual mines seem to need indvidualised processing to suit the particular mix and geographic location, so I think just mining and not processing is a wasted opportunity or maybe can't even sell the mixture to anyone.
Thus I don't feel great threat from too many new competitors particulary quickly.
Tobo. LYC, plus toe dipped in ARU & NAV

tobo
01-08-2007, 08:34 PM
Seaosh said
quote: Anyone know if Li-ion batteries also use rare earths? I'm wondering whether less need for rare earths could become another point in favor of Li-ion batteries in the future, potentially benefiting lithium producers like ADY.Does anyone know if Li-ion batteries also use rare earths?
Seaosh, because various REs are used in a range on new and/or sustainable technology I am relaxed about the possibility that one product could get superseded by something that uses widgium or chewing gumium;) : Obviously something to be watched longerterm, but I see a shortage of some REs looming in the meantime.
eg. You are talking about battery type, but latest ann is about magnets.

cantab
02-08-2007, 11:26 AM
Trading halt

[?]

slam
02-08-2007, 11:53 AM
Bugger
Will out of the country from monday for 2 weeks
What a time to have a TH
Better put in a stop loss (or profit target);)

Cheers
Slam

cantab
17-08-2007, 10:42 PM
Has been hammered, luckily however the company finalized all its funding on favourable terms prior to the rout including the convertible notes and bank debt. The $60m equity placement at $1.15 perhaps suffered a bit however it looks good compared to 86c!

Nice timing by LYC directors.

shasta
19-08-2007, 05:42 PM
Has been hammered, luckily however the company finalized all its funding on favourable terms prior to the rout including the convertible notes and bank debt. The $60m equity placement at $1.15 perhaps suffered a bit however it looks good compared to 86c!

Nice timing by LYC directors.

86c looks awful tasty to me...

Will be looking to pounce early this week...:D

cantab
19-08-2007, 07:45 PM
86c looks awful tasty to me...

Will be looking to pounce early this week...:D

Only thing is that they closed in Frankfurt up 16% which equates to A$1.00

shasta
19-08-2007, 08:10 PM
Only thing is that they closed in Frankfurt up 16% which equates to A$1.00

Thats my problem - the ASX will rebound strongly tomorrow & the large discounts will close very quickly.

Even at $1 LYC is still cheap sub 90c & its a bargin!

cantab
19-08-2007, 09:26 PM
Even at $1 LYC is still cheap sub 90c & its a bargin!

Agree but if Wall Street has another bad hair day..........

Huang Chung
20-08-2007, 06:23 PM
I posted the info below on the Vital Metals thread, but thought LYC holders might be interested as well.


Extract from the 'Pure Speculation' column in the business pages of today's Australian....

...'Bill Ryan's tungsten vehicle, Vital Metals, which has a JORC resource of 56,300 contained tonnes, fell from 92c last month to as low as 56c a week ago. Like iron ore, there has been no price erosion with tungsten still fetching $US25,000/tonne.
Interestingly, one of Japan's largest trading houses, Sojitz, has just sealed its takeover of Toronto-listed Primary Metals, a producer of tungsten concentrates. And then there was the report in the Johannesburg-based daily Business Report that Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry had mapped out a new and comprehensive strategy to secure projects overseas producing specialty metals - especially tungsten, cobalt, vanadium, molybdenum, indium, platinum and rare earths.'

shasta
20-08-2007, 07:39 PM
Cantab

You were right, LYC flew up to around the $1 mark & left me behind...

Still i managed to sneak into PEM @ $3.82 so i'm not complaining.

Watching closely....

cantab
20-08-2007, 09:14 PM
Cantab

You were right, LYC flew up to around the $1 mark & left me behind...



Shasta, I think better to wait for a down day

shasta
20-08-2007, 09:42 PM
Shasta, I think better to wait for a down day

At 86c i would have been keen, will have to revise a buy price & put in a cheeky bid sub $1 of course!

slam
06-09-2007, 10:43 AM
Nice we acquisition
Ann out
"Acquisition of New Rare Earths Resource in Malawi"

Needs a bomb under it, someone been selling for a while now and keeping this good thing down

Cheers
Slam

cantab
06-09-2007, 12:05 PM
Slam, unexpected but nice surprise. One thing I've thought about for a while now is would LYC have considered a takeover, ahem merger with ARU. Probably a bit early as ARU are yet to do a pre-feasability study. Interesting that LYC mentions how important it is to have a low thorium and uranium content.


"Lynas has secured a Rare Earths deposit which possesses the critical characteristics of an economically viable Rare Earths resource, including;
�� Ability to produce a high grade Rare Earths concentrate via pilot plant tested, low cost gravity separation processes.
�� Inherently low thorium and uranium content thereby making it practical from an environmental perspective and allowing transportation of the concentrate.

Lynas’ Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis, believes that the signing of the contract is complementary to the already large Rare Earths resource held by Lynas at Mt Weld, “This acquisition further enhances Lynas’ security of supply by making Lynas a multi-mine company, it increases our growth potential, and positions Lynas in the market as the significant Rare Earths supplier outside of China”, Mr Curtis says."

tobo
08-09-2007, 07:28 AM
... would LYC have considered a takeover, ahem merger with ARU. Probably a bit early as ARU are yet to do a pre-feasability study. Interesting that LYC mentions how important it is to have a low thorium and uranium content..."

By coincidence there was discussion last week on hotcopper ARU thread about what to do with the thorium in ARU's RE deposit, and if it was a problem. Seemed that ARU are comfortable about managing the thorium. Punters were discussing if thorium could actually be saved and sold, but one use (thorium reactors) is minimum 15-30 years away.

Low thorium makes mining easier. Also less green tape approvals process

stevo1
08-09-2007, 01:21 PM
lyc added to S&P/ASX200

suntboy
08-09-2007, 03:06 PM
Very significant I am sure there are plenty of punters like myself who belong to Austrlian Retirement Fund and can only trade shares in asx200.Hope price stays down till they are admitted then i can sell my csm and load up.

slam
19-09-2007, 11:40 AM
Hi All
Lots on the sell side of this little baby:(:confused:
Not sure why
Been in for a long time
Anyone got any clues?

Cheers
Slam

slam
25-09-2007, 10:47 AM
"Lynas Customer Contracts Total Over US$310 Million With 3rd Rare Earths Supply Contract"

Nice
See if this gets the Sp moving

Cheers
Slam

shasta
25-09-2007, 11:15 AM
"Lynas Customer Contracts Total Over US$310 Million With 3rd Rare Earths Supply Contract"

Nice
See if this gets the Sp moving

Cheers
Slam

That was a great ann out today, & certainly caught my attention...

Should set LYC on a run, if it doesnt, what would???

Disc: Watching closely :cool:

stevo1
25-09-2007, 12:52 PM
this one is running ....good company with plenty more potential. DYOR

stevo1
25-09-2007, 12:54 PM
this one is running ....good company with plenty more potential. DYOR

slam
26-09-2007, 10:53 AM
Hi All
LYC managment doing the biz atm
Completeing contract yesterday and site location for processing plant today.

Should run some more imo
Happy to be a long time holder
cheers
Slam

Viking
26-09-2007, 03:32 PM
Do like to see this one back to its $1.50 days~ actually wasn't that long ago~ :)

Snapper
03-10-2007, 11:11 AM
Do like to see this one back to its $1.50 days~ actually wasn't that long ago~ :)

Up $0.15c to $1.40 - nearly there! Maybe the inclusion in the ASX200 index is giving it a shove.

cantab
09-11-2007, 03:40 PM
Didn't quite have the courage to buy at $1.045 yesterday, but bought some more on the open today at $1.07

I thought the Lynas presentation on 5th Nov to the 3rd International rare earths conference was positive.

Viking
09-11-2007, 04:00 PM
I did like their business, being the only major REO producer outside China~ and the low production cost should give them an edge, so long they could produce quality stuff~ the high tech company should like them.

Country like Taiwan, who is uses a lot of those stuff, should become their client at least for the immidiate furture due to the Taiwan/China trade barrier~ plus the Chinese policy on the mining product...etc.

cantab
09-11-2007, 10:11 PM
Country like Taiwan, who is uses a lot of those stuff, should become their client at least for the immidiate furture due to the Taiwan/China trade barrier~ plus the Chinese policy on the mining product...etc.

Two reasons for China to continue to restrict mining and export of rare earths - rare earths mining has not been friendly for the environment plus China only has rare earths reserves to last 30 years. Export quotas and increases in export tarrifs on rare earths can only encourage more global companies to move consumer products manufacture to China.

cantab
09-11-2007, 10:41 PM
Found this on ARU HC

Japan urges China to ease rare metals supply

Reuters Thursday November 8 2007
(Adds comments from officials and traders, details)
By George Nishiyama

TOKYO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Japan's trade minister urged China on Thursday not to put the squeeze on Tokyo and other buyers of its rare metals as Beijing tightens its grip on the resources, which are indispensable for Japan's high-tech industries.
Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Akira Amari also told Reuters he would visit South Africa and Botswana next week in a bid to secure alternative sources of the minerals, many of which resource-poor Japan depends almost entirely on China.
Fears about supply security has grown among Japanese firms amid surges in raw material prices, and as China, the source of around 90 percent of rare earth metals and tungsten supplies for Japan, steps up its control over them.
"China's got Japan's manufacturers by the throat," said one Japanese energy official who declined to be named.
Motors for hybrid cars -- a market in which Japan leads the world -- cannot be manufactured without rare earth dysprosium, and drilling tools with tungsten tips are vital for the production of compact mobile phones.
Prices of tungsten have approximately quadrupled from 2004, and dysprosium has gone up over three times in the same period, according to the Japanese government.
China banned duty-free exports of rare earth ores for processing earlier this year, and on Wednesday said it would bar foreign investment in mining rare minerals or those that can't be recycled.
"China needs to understand that no country can prosper by dominating its resources," Amari said in an interview.
"It's only natural that China would want to use its resources strategically, but it needs to understand that the basic principle in trade is that you can only prosper if your partner is prosperous."
PARTNER AND RIVAL CHINA
While China is a major producer of rare metals, it has become an importer of many minerals due to growing domestic demand brought on by its booming economy and competes with Japan in securing the resources on the global stage.
"China is a partner and a rival. It's a partnership accompanied by tension," Amari said.
Japanese traders were more blunt.
"China is a real threat," said a senior trader at Japanese rare metals trading company Advanced Material Japan Corporation.
"Japan is way behind China. We know that we're resource-poor and have to depend on other countries, but the government has not taken steps to deal with that so far."
He said Japan should review its reserves of rare metals to better reflect the current needs of Japanese manufacturers.
Japan began piling up stocks of rare metals -- nickel, molybdenum, chrome, tungsten, cobalt, manganese and vanadium -- in 1983 to cope with the possibility of a supply shortage.
But the reserves do not include rare earth or platinum, which is also in great demand among Japanese automobile makers as it is used as a catalyst to clean car exhaust fumes.
Amari admitted that Japan had lagged behind China in "resources diplomacy", but said he was confident that Japan, by offering development aid, can build ties with potential producers, including African countries.
"Japan is going to tell the countries: 'we'll support your efforts to stand on your own feet' ... All the producer countries share the fear: 'what happens once we run out of resources'," Amari said.
"We need to offer them a solution. Only Japan can tie-up resources diplomacy with industrial assistance."
Amari also said that during his visit to Africa from Nov. 14, Japan would offer assistance in exploration technology so the countries can verify potential mineral deposits. (Additional reporting by Yoko Kubota; Editing by Malcolm Whittaker)


http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7060576

cantab
09-11-2007, 11:06 PM
Anticipated resources tax undermines industry stocks

Carol Chan
Nov 09, 2007
Mainland resources stocks, with the exception of gold-mining firms, slumped by 10 to 20 per cent this week as a result of investor jitters over the expected launch of a tax on resources and other measures by the government....

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2c913216495213d5df646910cba0a0a0/?vgnextoid=edabf8ada3026110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCR D&vgnextfmt=teaser&ss=Companies&s=Business


Beijing forbids foreign mining of rare minerals

Cary Huang in Beijing
Nov 08, 2007
Beijing will ban foreign companies from investing or exploring in mining rare minerals or major non-renewable mineral resources to protect the country's limited resources....

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/menuitem.2c913216495213d5df646910cba0a0a0/?vgnextoid=29e35833ffa16110VgnVCM100000360a0a0aRCR D&vgnextfmt=teaser&ss=Companies&s=Business

Viking
12-11-2007, 08:48 AM
Two reasons for China to continue to restrict mining and export of rare earths - rare earths mining has not been friendly for the environment plus China only has rare earths reserves to last 30 years. Export quotas and increases in export tarrifs on rare earths can only encourage more global companies to move consumer products manufacture to China.

Good point, Cantab~
Yes, agree with you that this could pressure the tech manufacturers to establish in China if they haven't done so already~
As far as LYC is concern, I guess is another wait and see~ though the odds are looking good for them.

cantab
30-11-2007, 09:59 PM
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7116443.stm

LYC mentioned in the US last night as a medium risk exposure to rare earths:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=38352

Thanks to Flyer69 for posting this on LYC HC

Ttops
02-01-2008, 04:18 PM
Is LYC going to break above 100 again?

Ttops
02-01-2008, 06:00 PM
Is LYC going to break above 100 again? Nearly . finished at 99 . Looking promising maybe tomorrow. :)

Ttops
03-01-2008, 01:04 PM
LYC

What is going to provide the "efficiency" of all the motors to be found in beltless modern cars and the hybrid cars and eventually electric vehicles.

Shasta You will need some of these to go with ADY's Lithium batteries ;);)

Will not be sub 100 for long ;):D

http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Reports/LYC_271107_Patersons_broker_report.pdf (http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Reports/LYC_271107_Patersons_broker_report.pdf)
http://www.lynascorp.com/

Neodymium and Praseodymium remain the main value drivers for LYC with 59% of revenue at current
prices. With strongest growth in the micro magnet, catalyst and phosphor applications, supply of Rare
Earths Neodymium, Praseodymium Terbium and Dysprosium are expected to be particularly tight, but the
whole market will soon be in supply deficit. 3 sales contracts totalling US$300M in expected revenue have
already been signed (accounting for the first 5 years of 10,500t production). All contracts include floor
pricing for the covered Rare Earths but with no ceiling prices for the main +US$200M contract covering
Neodymium and Praseodymium sales, retaining the upside for LYC given the expected stronger prices
and showing the desperation of buyers seeking a stable/alternative supply to the Chinese.
Given LYC.s estimated cash position of A$95M, debt facilities of A$105M and US$105M, remaining mine
and transport capex of $27M and plant capex of $294M, cash operating costs of US$5/kg (consisting
mining, transportation, concentration, cracking, separation and finishing), using a 10% discount rate and
our assumed long term price of flat US$13,000/t for the suite of Mt Weld Rare Earths our DCF derived
valuation for LYC is $1.49/sh.

Ttops
03-01-2008, 05:09 PM
This must have been the cause of the sudden increase on Dec 31st around midday. Chinese insiders buying? McDunk would say this is always the case when an inexplicable surge occurs. The squeeze is being applied to the West and gradually being tightened. Guess this means LYC will gradually have the value of its assets increased irrespective of demand if Western supply is limited.

Good news anyway for holders

INCREASE OF CHINESE GOVERNMENT’S EXPORT TARIFF ON RARE EARTHS

Key Points

:
• Chinese export tariffs on Rare Earths increased to between 15% and 25%

• The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution
The Chinese Government authorities announced increases of the export tariff on Rare Earths effective 1 January 2008. The export tariff, which was originally introduced 14 months ago at 10% for all Rare Earths, has been increased as follows:
�� Europium, Terbium, Dysprosium, Yttrium as oxides carbonates, or chlorides 25%

�� All other Rare Earth oxides, carbonates, and chlorides 15%

�� Neodymium as metal 15%

�� All other Rare Earths metals 25%
The export tariff increase on current prices would equate to an international market price of US$12.82/kg of Rare Earths Oxide for the Mount Weld distribution.
Lynas Corporation ("Lynas") (ASX code LYC) believes the increase of the export tariff highlights the shortage of Rare Earths and confirms the policy of the Chinese Government to protect the increasingly tight supply of Rare Earths in China. China is essentially the only current global source for these strategic elements until Lynas’ Mount Weld project comes on stream in 2009.
"With Lynas’ non China assets the company will benefit from these structural changes through the increase in the international price for these essential elements as well as continued international concern of security of Chinese supply" commented Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis.

Ttops
04-01-2008, 11:37 AM
Lynas is on the move up 5% at 1.05 If it breaks that then 1.09 today?
!.08 already make that 1.12?

Ttops
04-01-2008, 12:59 PM
Lynas is on the move up 5% at 1.05 If it breaks that then 1.09 today?
!.08 already make that 1.12?
Currently 1.12 Did you catch the LYNAS train shasta
If it breaks 1.15 then it heads rapidly towards 1.22:)

Ttops
04-01-2008, 05:07 PM
Looking at the charts if it breaks through 1.12 should find little resistance at 1.15 and easily break into the low 1.20's from which it spent quite a while around the 1.25 mark with surges to 1.30 and beyond. Fundamentally though it is the Chinese recognising its value that has caused this and I can't see it stopping for long this time in the 1.20-1.30 range. Stock piling the ore mean't to be starting now so expect another ann soon.

Ttops
07-01-2008, 01:32 PM
Tell Capital sold most of their shares according to the pdf file near the bottom at 88c 17 Dec to 21 Dec. "The Tell Cap depression" Considering they took part in in the institutional cake slice at 1.15 thats not bad timing to miss the recent ann. Next resistance after 1.09 is 1.15! Someone should tell them. So an institution gutlessly sells at the bottom? Why are so many insties doing this at present?

shasta
07-01-2008, 01:38 PM
Currently 1.12 Did you catch the LYNAS train shasta
If it breaks 1.15 then it heads rapidly towards 1.22:)

No i havent got any LYC as yet. :(

Still watching LYC & ARU as i like the rare earths story, as you pointed out its complimentary to Lithium.

Im not in "buy" mode at present until the markets settle down.

I have other targets on close watch with higher priority.

Ttops
08-01-2008, 01:49 PM
Hi shasta
Thanks for replying given the tension building in your portfolio, ready to explode upwards hopefully. Even looking forward to The Big Easy atm. lol

Upside to 1.50 downside to 1.00 imo given the latest Chinese move and the trend to energy efficiency. Brokers valuation based on 13$/kg REO which is in agreement with latest LYC ann at $12.82 How much it will move in the current climate who nows but have loaded up sub 1.00 average while everyone was obsessed with oilers Li and U. lol
Anyway am sitting on it and waiting for 2009 when demand and production hopefully peak for LYC. Forward sales locked in with no upside limit so fully funded indicating the desperation buiding due to the Chinese applying a tourniquet to the Japs. Once you sell your ADY after the split diversify into REO. Bound to be more opportunities as more insties get the runs in the near term. Another one today sat on the loo at $1.15 lol

tobo
15-01-2008, 06:44 AM
Trying to figure out reason for monday jump to $1.25 on 'normal' volume.

Dec 10 ann re convertible note ($95m) resets conversion rate to 30% premium on 10 day trading average to maximum of 1.55.
$1.55 less 30% would be $1.08.

And that was friday.
Surely it's not people returning from holiday appraising anns from last week including the Chinese tax change.

Tobo. Hold.

stevo1
29-02-2008, 04:33 PM
lyc has jumped out of the doldrums with rising price and volumes been closing on its highs for 3 consecutive days

suntboy
29-02-2008, 06:27 PM
Must say I am very happy at the mo.My portfolio is heavily weighted in lyc,s favour so to say they are propping me up is an understatement.(currently at all time high)
Ree prices have been rising nicely (i.e Lanthanum up 33% this year) as they did this time last year .
so it is a nice foil whilst we wait for production.

Ttops
29-02-2008, 09:25 PM
LYC was a gift sub 1.00 but at 1.50 I felt it was time to take some profit and sold a third. Fundamentally almost the same share as when I bought it recently at the end of december. Why is it only now gaining cred. Was it it the presentation recently? Nothing new in that. I can't understand such volatility based on what the market knows anyway. Will be interesting if it can break through 1.57

suntboy
03-03-2008, 04:40 PM
LYC was a gift sub 1.00 but at 1.50 I felt it was time to take some profit and sold a third. Fundamentally almost the same share as when I bought it recently at the end of december. Why is it only now gaining cred. Was it it the presentation recently? Nothing new in that. I can't understand such volatility based on what the market knows anyway. Will be interesting if it can break through 1.57

Interesting no more

cantab
03-03-2008, 06:07 PM
Increase in Total Mount Weld Rare Earths Resource
New Heavy Rare Earths Resource Identified

Highlights
• An updated Mineral Resource estimate for the Mount Weld Central Lanthanide Deposit
(CLD) Sector of 12.2 million tonnes at 9.7% REO, giving a new resource of 1.18 million
tonnes of REO
• A zone of mineralisation has been identified with a higher value heavy Rare Earths
distribution. The average REO distribution in this zone has a composite market price of
US$21/kg REO
• Subject to finalization of a feasibility study the Mineral Resource within this new zone
may support a second Rare Earths operation based on high value, heavy Rare Earths

stevo1
03-03-2008, 06:47 PM
Late sale at 16:17 of 3.14 mill shares at 154.28 XTPT.

suntboy
03-03-2008, 06:49 PM
Blind Freddy could see some kind of ann. had to come
For a week everone is drowning in blood whilst we go up
My big hope is that they become the market darlings and all the deadbeats (followers ) out there looking to make a fast buck drop their uranium stocks i.e DYL etc and jump on the ree bandwagon.
I have plenty of Lyc stock and have just started loading up on NAV and ARU for no reason other than the herd mentality running scared and looking for the new wave.(refer my thread: is too much Knowledge a good thing )

suntboy
03-03-2008, 06:52 PM
Welcome To Suntland

tobo
03-03-2008, 07:51 PM
...
I have plenty of Lyc stock and have just started loading up on NAV and ARU for no reason other than the herd mentality running scared and looking for the new wave.(refer my thread: is too much Knowledge a good thing )

LOL, In the previous run up to $1.50 last year, I decided I wouldn't buy any more LYC at THAT price, and so instead bought some ARU and NAV at that time. (Of course paid too much for ARU compared to now...both now languishing sp's)

Hold LYC,ARU,NAV (and ZFX so an entertaining day for me) :D

suntboy
03-03-2008, 08:02 PM
Hi Tobo
At least we are on the same wavelength ( am I 3 months smarter than you? LOL )
Now we wait for the rest of the world to catch on.
Shame you bought when you did , if you call the three stocks up together on a chart they mirror each other until you invested......


Patience is rule #2 in Suntland

tobo
04-03-2008, 07:19 AM
Hi Tobo
...if you call the three stocks up together on a chart they mirror each other until you invested......


I think the size of my investments were not enough to move the market LOL.
(did pick up a few more NAV mid Feb and they are bit cheaper today) NAV is at very early stage for RE, so production will be like ducks lining up (first LYC, then ARU, then NAV). Gold pays for NAV and you get the RE for free.

stevo1
05-03-2008, 10:25 AM
More trades after closing yesterday 1mill at 16:13 price 162.13cps SPXT .93,000 at 163.5cps.XTLT .

Viking
05-03-2008, 03:46 PM
Hi Tobo
At least we are on the same wavelength ( am I 3 months smarter than you? LOL )

Patience is rule #2 in Suntland

Always like the stuff they mining~ entered last year... but could not feel any smarter than any of you :( since I only break into profit during the week's surge~ :)

suntboy
05-03-2008, 06:13 PM
remember rule #2

tobo
05-03-2008, 08:24 PM
Director's interest paying $1.60 full price today.
Why would director pay full price when (presumably) knew what was coming?

One guess is - couldn't buy last week because that could be insider trading, and is now happy to pay $1.60 knowing what he knows looking into future.

Any other thoughts

ToBo

tobo
05-03-2008, 08:36 PM
...... but could not feel any smarter than any of you :( since I only break into profit during the week's surge~ :)

I entered last year at 110 (as a LT hold), saw it go up to to 150 odd, and fall again with the big market fall thingy, chose the wrong week to try setting a few stop loss orders, got dumped out at 1.20, then didn't have any cash for a while and was pleased a little later to average back in at 110. So this is, like, my second chance to try to not fumble the ball.

Viking, I'm expecting this will go somewhat higher than this as production and sales approach (+ more nice resource surprises).

Just IMO. DYOR.
Tobo

Rif-Raf
05-03-2008, 09:29 PM
When reserves upgrade earlier in the week was great news, but also it was significant that the new zone identified is a premium composition of around $21 compared to the average of Mt Weld of around $13-$14 - that's 50% over the price!!

These guys are on a roll

suntboy
07-03-2008, 03:09 PM
Gday Riff Raff and Tobo
The fact the price has stabilized around 1.59 - 1.60 on a ****e day spells good times around the corner in my humble opinion.
Preparing for rule #3 in Suntland.

cantab
17-04-2008, 12:17 PM
Rare Earths price increases to $15.42 kg - see Lynas website for weekly price updates.

cantab
18-04-2008, 01:04 PM
$94.5 MILLION SHARE PLACEMENT COMPLETED
The Directors of Lynas Corporation Limited (“Lynas”) (ASX code LYC) are pleased to announce completion of a 75 million ordinary share placement at an issue price of $1.26 per share to raise a total of $94.5 million.
The placement was lead managed by Morgan Stanley. The book build was heavily
oversubscribed with 75 bids from both domestic and international institutions. Existing investors supported the transaction and a number of new investors have been introduced onto the register.
This equity raising ensures Lynas has sufficient capital available to fund the Rare Earths project through to start of production.
Upon completion of the placement, Lynas will have 647,320,799 ordinary shares on issue.
Lynas Executive Chairman, Nicholas Curtis said:
“I am delighted with the strong institutional support which reaffirms the confidence in the
company’s unique business proposition as an emerging global supplier of Rare Earths”.

tobo
10-05-2008, 08:16 AM
Since that placement at 126c on 18 April, now I see a big rise on friday :
Started day at 132c, progressively rose all day long.
At 4pm it was 140.5c and then, bang, half m$ at 142c after 4pm.
I am not aware of anything happening on friday - anyone got ideas?

ToBo. Holding

Ttops
10-05-2008, 09:39 AM
Since that placement at 126c on 18 April, now I see a big rise on friday :
Started day at 132c, progressively rose all day long.
At 4pm it was 140.5c and then, bang, half m$ at 142c after 4pm.
I am not aware of anything happening on friday - anyone got ideas?

ToBo. Holding

Tobo
http://www.lynascorp.com/content/upload/files/Quaterly_Report/2008/Q1_2008_Quarterly_Report_150408.pdf
I suspect an ann with more contracts. Excerpts from the quarterly:
GLOBAL MARKET ACTIVITY
COMMERCIAL DISCUSSIONS
The company signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) during the quarter with a new customer for product from the expansion phase of the plant. Discussions are continuing with the customer with the intention to progress this LOI to a full contract. Under the terms of the LOI the pricing structure is based on the market price during the contract period however a minimum floor price does apply which will be set at the time the contract is signed. At current prices the indicated sales have a value of approximately USD 85 million across the period of the contract.
Additional contract negotiations are ongoing for the remainder of the product from the initial phase, as well as the majority of the product from expansion phase. These are at different stages of development with three contracts with a current value of approximately USD 280 million expected to be finalised within the next three months, and more than five further contracts at the early stages of negotiation which are expected to be finalised within the next eight months.

The company plans to complete the following target milestones during the next quarter:
�� Finalize security trust deed and security documentation for HVB

�� Complete first mining campaign at Mount Weld

�� Award construction contract for the Concentration Plant at Mount Weld

�� Sign further customer agreements

cantab
22-05-2008, 08:16 PM
Fits into the palm of one's hand and can lift 141 kg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4woVEF3t6Lo

cantab
11-06-2008, 06:42 PM
http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=43162

suntboy
12-06-2008, 07:29 AM
Very good reading Cantab
Better not post it on the ADY thread or you will have them in a dither
Shame more people are not aware of the REE story

Snapper
12-06-2008, 09:18 AM
There is a bit of a debate going on over which type of battery will dominate but the article indicated that lithium will be used for the plug-in vehicles which (I think) will eventually come to dominate the hybrids. Whatever type of battery does dominate its all going to good for RE demand.

Disc Hold LYC and ADY

cantab
12-06-2008, 04:44 PM
Very good reading Cantab
Better not post it on the ADY thread or you will have them in a dither
Shame more people are not aware of the REE story

Suntboy, in case you didn't read this report this morning:

Toyota New Zealand general manager of sales and operations Steve Prangnell said there was a huge demand for hybrid cars, proving the focus on fuel economy.

There was a three months waiting list.

"We think it's a bit of a tipping point, they're (hybrids) becoming quite mainstream now," Prangnell said.

"Fleets are coming to us at the moment and we're having to order as many as we can."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4580897a13.html

suntboy
19-06-2008, 10:29 AM
Couple of big buys lined up in pre open with half an hour to go
Will be interesting to see if they pull them or not

cantab
19-06-2008, 09:18 PM
Couple of big buys lined up in pre open with half an hour to go
Will be interesting to see if they pull them or not


30m shares sold today, 5% of all shares issued!

suntboy
20-06-2008, 06:56 AM
Possibly fund taking profit to help balance books?

cantab
21-07-2008, 09:47 PM
2008 quota more than 20% lower than 2007

Second half 2008 quota only 50% of first half

Lynas "to be in a position to fill the void by the end of 2009"

cantab
31-07-2008, 05:14 PM
A very comprehensive quarterly activities report out today.

cantab
21-08-2008, 04:06 PM
Nicholas Curtis, Executive Chairman, buys 1,500,000 shares for $1,631,000 on 20 August

shasta
17-09-2008, 04:21 PM
Nicholas Curtis, Executive Chairman, buys 1,500,000 shares for $1,631,000 on 20 August

LYC - Project Update & Concentration Plant Contract

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LYC&E=ASX&N=421146

Rif-Raf
19-09-2008, 07:43 PM
Only a few weeks back directors were buying at around $1.06 now price recovered to 72c
see RE prices at $12.82 have come off highs of $15+ but still v/good

Yet another example of a tempting stock at bargain prices.

stevo1
08-10-2008, 06:45 PM
Only a few weeks back directors were buying at around $1.06 now price recovered to 72c
see RE prices at $12.82 have come off highs of $15+ but still v/good

Yet another example of a tempting stock at bargain prices.

You're not wrong there Rif but like so many stocks cheaper now than they were then .48cps.This company has funding in place and is making good progress but they just keep getting cheaper.The worlds largest and richest deposit of rare earths at Mt Weld,no real competition (chinese pretty much have the only working mine and are taxing exports)moving towards production 2009,offtake contracts in place to the tune of US$490 mill for the first 5 yrs production,rapaidly increasing demand for product that is scarce in mineable quantities and totally necessary for a number of carbon busting energy solutions,and hi tech applications.Very different company than 2yrs ago when the shareprice was at this level.I guess thats bear markets for you.

marknz88
08-10-2008, 11:04 PM
Ive taken a beating on this one, albeit only hold a small amount.

Got in at 1.32, watched it rise to 1.40's before its plummeted to where its at now. Now although im holding this for the long run, I still shoulda had a stop loss for when it dropped below 1.15 or at most $1.00. Could have double, trippled my holdings if I had re-entered around now. hindsight's a great thing.

Seems like some of the bigger holders want out and that is whats suppressing the shareprice quite a bit? Hopefully when they get closer to production price will rise back to a to where it was previously trading.

My first ever year in the markets and its been one rough ride, but what better way to learn than in this monster bear market eh.

stevo1
09-10-2008, 01:00 PM
Ive taken a beating on this one, albeit only hold a small amount.

Got in at 1.32, watched it rise to 1.40's before its plummeted to where its at now. Now although im holding this for the long run, I still shoulda had a stop loss for when it dropped below 1.15 or at most $1.00. Could have double, trippled my holdings if I had re-entered around now. hindsight's a great thing.

Seems like some of the bigger holders want out and that is whats suppressing the shareprice quite a bit? Hopefully when they get closer to production price will rise back to a to where it was previously trading.

My first ever year in the markets and its been one rough ride, but what better way to learn than in this monster bear market eh.

Not a good year to get into the markat markNZ.LYC down another 14% today may go down further but I am looking to start to accumulate (against charts and TA ((I can see Phaedrus shaking his head at my stupidity).The charts are all going to point down at this point until we bottom .So cautious accumulation for me (may well get an ass kickin with this tactic)

stevo1
10-10-2008, 03:13 PM
LYC down a further 14.5% on this bloody Friday.Nibbled at a few more.May still go lower like everything else.

stevo1
14-10-2008, 11:20 AM
LYC currently up 34.6%.thought it was a bit oversold

stevo1
14-10-2008, 05:22 PM
Ended the day at 48cps + 23.1 %. We certainly seeing volutility and wild swings

stevo1
03-11-2008, 12:06 PM
LYC seems to have taken off today currently up 34% to 43cps.Selling down seems finished for the moment.Wild swings still happening and pretty unpredictable with no news ,Now up to 45.5 cps or 42% anyone know whats going on.

suntboy
03-11-2008, 01:21 PM
Just basically heading back to where it should be
Nothing has changed other than the fact the Hedge funds who loved to trade this stock have all sold up in the past few weeks (which really breaks my heart , LOL )
I have been busy buying up in the 20's and when I can free up a bit more will continue to buy up to .50

stevo1
05-11-2008, 05:23 PM
Just basically heading back to where it should be
Nothing has changed other than the fact the Hedge funds who loved to trade this stock have all sold up in the past few weeks (which really breaks my heart , LOL )
I have been busy buying up in the 20's and when I can free up a bit more will continue to buy up to .50

Sunty looking good 49.5 finish on good volume of 5.6mill.Would it be too early for chartist's to confirm an upward trend.

marknz88
05-11-2008, 05:34 PM
Nice rebound over these last few days, still got a long way to go till we get back to my entry at 1.32 tho :<

suntboy
05-11-2008, 06:04 PM
Sunty looking good 49.5 finish on good volume of 5.6mill.Would it be too early for chartist's to confirm an upward trend.

As most know a chartist I am not
But what we are seeing is times of old where up 8-10 cents one day down 4-5 the next then up 8-10 and so on
What is really pleasing is the fact the hedge funds and shorters have all but disappeared so the trade amounts of 15-20,000 are being sought buy 1 or 2 buyers
As stated nothing has changed and I see absolutely no reason why it will not be back over the $1 before xmas.

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
06-11-2008, 06:54 PM
Taken some off the table.Unsure if the bear isnt just napping

suntboy
07-11-2008, 01:28 PM
looking at the low volume today and the state of the market I would tend to suggest those who have bought lately above 40 are more than happy to hold.

stevo1
09-11-2008, 08:17 PM
looking at the low volume today and the state of the market I would tend to suggest those who have bought lately above 40 are more than happy to hold.

A word of caution Sunty .Globally the car makers are copping a hammering in sales and profits,(and for that matter survival of their brands for some is now in question)which normally crimps developement expenditure.Obama is talking aid to auto makers which may negate some of that,however consumers generally are hard hit (demand be absolutely hammered if unemployement rockets) which could severly affect the demand/price of REE's.Certainly with credit markets tightening on financing of consumer products(cars ,LCD's computers etc)if you combine that with market sentiment you could see LYC retrace.

suntboy
10-11-2008, 07:06 AM
A word of caution Sunty .Globally the car makers are copping a hammering in sales and profits,(and for that matter survival of their brands for some is now in question)which normally crimps developement expenditure.Obama is talking aid to auto makers which may negate some of that,however consumers generally are hard hit (demand be absolutely hammered if unemployement rockets) which could severly affect the demand/price of REE's.Certainly with credit markets tightening on financing of consumer products(cars ,LCD's computers etc)if you combine that with market sentiment you could see LYC retrace.

Quite possible Stevo but it is interesting to see that the prices have held up very well compared to other commodities.Car makers are but one user of many of the REEs
Which way the price goes today may well give us an indication of the direction of LYC
Im picking green and at least .45 cents

Zephyrus
10-11-2008, 10:20 AM
Have a look at www.metal-pages.com (free trial).. Lots of useful info regarding the reo markets.. From what I can gather, the prices of many reo's have been "relatively" stable due to suppliers not willing to sell below cost.. There also appears to be a real lack of buyers at the moment.. Add to this, the illegal production of reo's in some parts of China.. This adds to the supply side & could impact the prices obtained for reo's in the medium term.. Having said that, Lynas is generally locking in floating contracts that guarantee a profit on sale(although could be quite small in a depressed market).. Their customers are more concerned with obtaining regular supply, hence are willing to provide this buffer to Lynas.

shasta
19-11-2008, 04:03 PM
Have a look at www.metal-pages.com (http://www.metal-pages.com) (free trial).. Lots of useful info regarding the reo markets.. From what I can gather, the prices of many reo's have been "relatively" stable due to suppliers not willing to sell below cost.. There also appears to be a real lack of buyers at the moment.. Add to this, the illegal production of reo's in some parts of China.. This adds to the supply side & could impact the prices obtained for reo's in the medium term.. Having said that, Lynas is generally locking in floating contracts that guarantee a profit on sale(although could be quite small in a depressed market).. Their customers are more concerned with obtaining regular supply, hence are willing to provide this buffer to Lynas.

LYC - International Rare Earths Conference Presentation :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=LYC&E=ASX&N=429825

stevo1
29-12-2008, 12:22 PM
Some wild swings with LYC on christmas eve when it appears someone (JPMORGAN?) wanted cash at any cost .Down to a low of 14.5 finished at 17.5.Was a great buying opportunity.Opened today at 20.5 high so far 24 .I am watching closely-- seems oversold --PROVIDING management has dotted i's and crossed t's on funding

stevo1
31-12-2008, 10:42 AM
Looks like LYC is moving onwards and upwards (ATM).Closed yesterday at 28cps.Looks like it may rise further I have NFI why such wild swings.Does anybody else ?In the last week if you had bought at or near low(albeit not a lot of shares traded under 17.5) and sold yesterday= great short term gain. 80 to 100%.Interesting times good volumes 8-15mill / day.

suntboy
31-12-2008, 03:08 PM
Gday Steveo
All I can say is the boys are gettin their xmas bonus in what unfortunately is a legit way
I usually follow the volumes and trades very closely but due to holidays etc have just walked in
It would be nice to know how many work for the instos that bought on xmas eve and have since resold
I took advantage of my commsec account and bought 25k worth before I left for Auck at an average of around .20c
they will try to debit my acc of which there is no money, they will contact me , I will say sorry been on holiday will sort it and sell
I wonder how many others got a good bonus

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
10-02-2009, 10:43 AM
Gday Steveo
All I can say is the boys are gettin their xmas bonus in what unfortunately is a legit way
I usually follow the volumes and trades very closely but due to holidays etc have just walked in
It would be nice to know how many work for the instos that bought on xmas eve and have since resold
I took advantage of my commsec account and bought 25k worth before I left for Auck at an average of around .20c
they will try to debit my acc of which there is no money, they will contact me , I will say sorry been on holiday will sort it and sell
I wonder how many others got a good bonus

Welcome to Suntland

Hi Sunty not great news for LYC hope you are not holding a bundle .I would expect SP to get hammered today on the latest ann http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090210/pdf/31fz8cm57v5tw3.pdf

suntboy
11-02-2009, 07:50 AM
Gday Steveo
Yes I do hold a bundle but they are in my superannuation account and can stay there til I retire because they were always bought as a long term hold.(this is the 3rd year into a 12 year plan and while I would never have imagined they would have been in this pickle I still feel no need to sell them)
As far as my parcel at xmas went that was purely an opportunistic day trade and they were sold for a nice 50% profit.
I did the same yesterday and bought at 12 cents and will see what happens today as to whether I hold or sell.
Their cash values them at 9 cents and I cannot believe they will stay idle for long
If I had to guess I would imagine that their prospective customers will stump up with the required funds.( I just hope no one buys them )

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
11-02-2009, 10:52 AM
Gday Steveo
Yes I do hold a bundle but they are in my superannuation account and can stay there til I retire because they were always bought as a long term hold.(this is the 3rd year into a 12 year plan and while I would never have imagined they would have been in this pickle I still feel no need to sell them)
As far as my parcel at xmas went that was purely an opportunistic day trade and they were sold for a nice 50% profit.
I did the same yesterday and bought at 12 cents and will see what happens today as to whether I hold or sell.
Their cash values them at 9 cents and I cannot believe they will stay idle for long
If I had to guess I would imagine that their prospective customers will stump up with the required funds.( I just hope no one buys them )

Welcome to Suntland

Sunty I am somewhat of a TA ignoramus but even to me this now would appear to be in danger territory from a chart perspective(any TA practitioners care to post?) and may be a candidate for Phaedrus's classic "chart with quotations".
With the major end user's in trouble and reporting losses (auto co's , electronic manufacturers and consumers) and severly diminished demand it creates a very difficult funding situation leaving LYC open to preditory funders-- YA's 30 million facility is a good example.
While it is a great project and the REE's will be needed into the future I see now as a trading stock only.

suntboy
11-02-2009, 02:04 PM
Quite possibly Steveo ...but you speak a language I do not understand( I am featured in the Thesaurus under ignoramus)
With the current climate a delay may well be a blessing in desguise
After much thought have decided to hold my 12 cent shares for a little bit ... because my belief is if they were going to continue their downward spiral it would of been today

stevo1
11-02-2009, 02:21 PM
Quite possibly Steveo ...but you speak a language I do not understand( I am featured in the Thesaurus under ignoramus)
With the current climate a delay may well be a blessing in desguise
After much thought have decided to hold my 12 cent shares for a little bit ... because my belief is if they were going to continue their downward spiral it would of been today

Sunty wasnt havin a go at ya,more bit of a mock on myself as far as the TA goes.Certainly will make for interesting times

suntboy
11-02-2009, 03:27 PM
No worries Stevo
My wife just called me a dkhead in front of my girls (who went away laughin their heads off )so it is par for the course
What is your take on the situation?
I believe , along with a fair few others that it is still a good story(because of its uniqueness)The price of Ree's is still around $10/kg and has held up well and with a mined cost to lynas of $6/kg there still seems an upside to all this.
The fact the bond holders dont like it should not play as big a part as what is being shown.
The more I think about it the more I am happy with my buy yesterday

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
14-02-2009, 01:43 PM
Is there anyone with charts using TA analysis on LYC willing to post on LYC ?

shasta
14-02-2009, 01:55 PM
Is there anyone with charts using TA analysis on LYC willing to post on LYC ?

Not that i have the tools others do, but looks pretty grim to me...

Smart money getting out? (Check the volume & the SP drop)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=LYC&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=MACD&ra=2

stevo1
16-02-2009, 02:12 PM
Not that i have the tools others do, but looks pretty grim to me...

Smart money getting out? (Check the volume & the SP drop)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=LYC&exchange=ASX&period=6M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=&ind=MACD&ra=2

Thanks Shasta that chart certainly looks grim ,I was hoping for someone with all the TA tools and following LYC who like myself is looking for a bottom turning point to share their research.
The SP has turned up (with less vol ).
Fundamentally I like the company,great resource in a strategic set of materials in a politically stable environment.
This fall over in funding IS the issue,make or break?Perhaps not but will definitely slow the project,(must meet $95 mill funding by 31 march) to access the senior debt.
If they get the funding SP will rocket,I was hoping that someone with TA could detect this(insiders will be buying/selling ahead of un/or successful outcome)

stevo1
17-02-2009, 11:59 AM
SP appears to have bottomed,I say this without the benefit of TA and probably will be dutifully punished if wrong.


subsequent to posting above LYC has come out with ann
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090217/pdf/31g36d98y6x1zz.pdf
Project goes on hold,maybe the chinese will end up owning it they seem to have a desire for companies needing funds and if they controlled this project they will add to the 90% of the world supply of REEs already produced by china. In effect virtually full control of REE supply into the future could be produced by the Chinese .
May well NOT be the bottom for SP

stevo1
18-02-2009, 09:37 AM
Suspending work on Mt Weld
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090218/pdf/31g3b662wb48lc.pdf

suntboy
18-02-2009, 10:55 AM
Hi Steveo
noticed today where ARU has sold up to 25% to the chinese so you could be right
LYC stands for lychee
Still happy to hold my 12cent buy

stevo1
18-02-2009, 11:36 AM
Hi Sunty,all is playing into China's hands ATM.
The west's insatiable appetite for "stuff" has given them (with their long term outlook)the ability to buy quality at bargain prices(and turn that US peso into real assets)
REE's are a strategic asset for growth and technology into the future,it is unlikely that governments will turn away China's investment considering the perilous state of western economies.
Rightly or otherwise I am waiting at 10.5 for cautious re-entry.
Though right now SP seems to be holding (15) and may not get to that level

stevo1
09-03-2009, 04:20 PM
Sunty this article came out in the Timesonline http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article5870223.ece

Pretty well confirms my thinking on the Chinese domination of REEs .
The following quote highlights an aspect I had not considered

"Mr Sato also believes that China will seek to use its existing monopoly status to crush any competition that emerges. Although about 42 per cent of worldwide reserves of rare earth ores lie outside China, very few places have significant refinery capacity.
Mr Sato said: “Of course many people are looking at establishing alternative refineries and sources outside China, but the investment is not necessarily a sound one because of the threat of price revenge by China. If new projects emerge, as they have recently in Malaysia and Australia, China could just drop its prices and force rivals out of business.”



The Japanese and Chinese have no great liking of each other( centuries of prior conflict) that combined with Face Saving in the Asian cultures should almost certainly assure funding for LYC IMO,if funding does not come from somewhere other than China, it would be a bit like Chinese control of the all worlds future energy .Something that would prove unpalatable to the rest of the world you would think if they are awake to it.

LYC now has a market cap of $81 mill needs US$213 plus A$82 to come up to production, considering it has off takes in place(though the details have not been released)it seems a small sum to ensure non Chinese controlled production.(I am not anti Chinese purely looking at this from a strategic point of view)

The charts look horrible for LYC but it is obvious they have a strategic set of assets .Will anyone step up to the plate to ensure non Chinese supply into the future?

stevo1
12-03-2009, 04:18 PM
Sunty I have plunged in to LYC with 1/3 of what I intend to spend at 12.5 a fewdays ago .Somehow seemed too compelling not to.
Despite the chart looking horrible appears to be bouncing along the bottom.

Time will confirm the stupidity or otherwise of doing so.

marknz88
12-03-2009, 08:56 PM
Good to see a few others here interested in LYC!

I do believe we will get funding sorted in the next few months. If not, potentially somebody may try and take us out on the cheap. We cant have China controlling greater than 95% of the worlds rare earths!

Im in two minds if I should average down my holding (57c avg) in the event that the above two occur, or wait for a bit of a recovery before putting in more money.

stevo1
13-03-2009, 10:09 AM
Good to see a few others here interested in LYC!

I do believe we will get funding sorted in the next few months. If not, potentially somebody may try and take us out on the cheap. We cant have China controlling greater than 95% of the worlds rare earths!

Im in two minds if I should average down my holding (57c avg) in the event that the above two occur, or wait for a bit of a recovery before putting in more money.

Mark maybe one of your minds might like to view NPX and Yankiwi posted by Phaedrus before you make any decisions.

suntboy
17-03-2009, 04:00 PM
Gday Stevo and Mark
I am only catchin up with the past two weeks as I am having a holiday with the family in the Sth Island (courtesy of the depression and the the money I made off LYC at xmas )
I also read that article Stevo and initially thought it read good until I read the part that said"someone close to Lyc does not think the project will get up and running again in the near future" or words to that effect (cant recall )
As far as averaging down goes Mark , I think you will know when it is time to buy by watching the volumes of trades.
I watch them everyday (when not on holiday ) and they are a very good indicator when something is afoot.
Anyways still happy to hold my 12 cent shares but have a fair few hours ahead of catching up with the fortnight I have missed

Welcome To Suntland

suntboy
17-03-2009, 04:09 PM
As I was writing the above post I have just noticed a subtle swing upwards.May well be worth watching late today and early tomorrow

stevo1
18-03-2009, 11:05 AM
As I was writing the above post I have just noticed a subtle swing upwards.May well be worth watching late today and early tomorrow

Suntboy hope your holiday is going well.Volume seems to be picking up as is price.
The depth on the buy side is large comparative to the sell side.
7.6 mill wanted down to 10.5cps ,only 2.5mill on the sell side to 21.5 cps.
Taken another bite at 14.5 cps averaging up.
would anyone using TA care to comment?

suntboy
18-03-2009, 06:24 PM
Hi stevo
Yeah Hanmer Springs today
Just got in and had a quick look and see the volume and price up
What I did notice yesterday and today was their seems to be someone dumping a large amount in cross trades so I think you will find a new shareholder ann. soon.
I like to look at the course of sales - How much? what time? after close? etc but just do not have time at the minute

Welcome To suntland

stevo1
23-03-2009, 12:18 PM
LYC have extracted themselves from the bond issue I like the fact they have done it without extensive litigation.Leaves them free and clear to deal with other parties. SP up to 19.5 cps.
Would still really like it if some TA exponent would post charts

stevo1
23-03-2009, 01:46 PM
Talking to myself here but I kinda think maybe has broken TA to the upside now at 23 cps and volume up.

suntboy
23-03-2009, 02:58 PM
Only talkin to yourself for a while Stevo
Just got back to the mighty waikato from the mainland (jeez they are a bigoted sullen lot down there )
As I stated last week you can usually tell with this co (good or bad ) what is coming up , by looking at the volume of trades
Your buy at 12.5 is looking almost as good as my buy at 12 cents LOL
With what is happening with the co of late I do not think you could look at a chart and take it seriously.
Onwards and Upwards

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
23-03-2009, 05:19 PM
Only talkin to yourself for a while Stevo
Just got back to the mighty waikato from the mainland (jeez they are a bigoted sullen lot down there )
As I stated last week you can usually tell with this co (good or bad ) what is coming up , by looking at the volume of trades
Your buy at 12.5 is looking almost as good as my buy at 12 cents LOL
With what is happening with the co of late I do not think you could look at a chart and take it seriously.
Onwards and Upwards

Welcome to Suntland

Suntboy glad you are back !
Yeah looks pretty good 45.5% increase for the day hope that Marknz88 was watching and got on board.
Something obviously in the wind here with 17.5 mill shares changing hands.
Whats your take on it?

suntboy
23-03-2009, 06:03 PM
My take on it is this
You cannot pour millions into building a plant then walk away when it is literally half way completed ( you can actually see the pylons in the ground as opposed to pegs! )
This has always been a stock where it has moved more than 8% in a day
(until recently more up than down )
There are a lot of people that used to day trade this stock for that reason and I am sure they still have it on their watchlist
Now that the economy seems to have settled (bottomed ) and they know their jobs are secured , the day traders and others who like myself believe in the co realise that it will be full steam ahead and the share price will continue above 1.50 and head towards 2.00
My take

Welcome to Suntland

marknz88
23-03-2009, 07:01 PM
Unfortunately I was away from the computer all day so didn't manage to get on board. Definitely a step in the right direction tho.

Lets see how the rest of the week plays out :)

Good work to those that got in around the low teens tho!

stevo1
23-03-2009, 07:20 PM
Sounds good to me Sunty ,
It amases me that so many people are obsessed with the oil supply,price and future viability yet seem to ignore technology that is the key to transport and energy requirements into the future and the materials that are essential to implement the present and future technologies.
It is a pity that oil has dropped in price (probably temporarily) but it has taken the spotlight off alternate energy(other than the global warming factor).
Only 1/2 way there to what I wish to invest in LYC and I agree that when funding is assured sp will leap.
Good to see you have an eye on it Mark

stevo1
20-04-2009, 11:06 AM
LYC looks ready to rocket

suntboy
20-04-2009, 12:21 PM
Gday Stevo
Read into this what you will (i am not ramping the co)
I have just flown back from Sydney where I dropped into the Co to have a chat but there were meetings going on.
Whilst there I noticed a contingent of asians(not chinese)
Have done some digging and reading and am 95% sure that two of the offtake agreements they had were with Honda and Toyota
My 5 year plan with PEM has paid off in 5 months and sold last week and reinvested it in LYC
I now own 1 million shares ( not bad for a painter who cannot find work)
Whether these coincidences are folly I do not no but as I say there is too much at stake to let china control the whole REE market
I could well have kept my windfall from Peryla or invested it elsewhere but I believe my eyes and can see myself becoming a paper millionaire sooner rather than later

Welcome to Suntland

stevo1
20-04-2009, 01:44 PM
Yoowza sunty you are not muckin around here,certainly when funding comes in shes gonna jump (i suppose aloan a would be out of the Question) LOL.

suntboy
20-04-2009, 02:04 PM
yeah mate no loans..... if half the people that i have done work for paid me i might own a few more
I stick to a few companies i know and try not to wholly dissect them but act on what I see or at least perceive them doing
Having lived in Oz for 20 years I have a few good contacts I trust with my money ( but with them comes a fair few more that I do not )
I may well be clutching at straws with my latest buy but Rees are not a tradeable commodity at the moment(being completly cornered by China )
I firmly believe the japanese car companies are set in stone that hybrids or electric cars are the way of the future and with demand going to far outway supply very soon they can ill afford to let china dictate.
With china already taking a piece of ARU it makes sense to myself Toyota and Honda will be crunching numbers on LYC (probably thru a trading house )
When they get to .60 I might have to buy a Prius for when I go down and buy my Sushi

stevo1
21-04-2009, 11:13 AM
Big test for LYC today(with market down) or is it a buy more opportunity.TA anyone.

STRAT
21-04-2009, 12:39 PM
My 5 year plan with PEM has paid off in 5 months and sold last week and reinvested it in LYC
I now own 1 million shares ( not bad for a painter who cannot find work)


Welcome to SuntlandHiSuntboy,
Glad to hear you did ok with PEM but Im perplexed as to how you managed to do it. Werent you averaging down from $2 , $1, 60c etc from before the mioddle of last year? :confused:

STRAT
21-04-2009, 12:46 PM
Big test for LYC today(with market down) or is it a buy more opportunity.TA anyone.I will have a crack at it Stevo,
Whats your time frame and entry point?

suntboy
21-04-2009, 02:39 PM
Gday Strat yeah 5 months is a bit rich but the original buys were relatively small.It has been since november that I have been using spare funds I have been earning and buying 80,000 here and 100,000 there when the price has been around 17 cents
In that time I built up a healthy amount and got my average price down to 20 cents
The price you pay for falling in love with the company.
Im sure there have been other companies I could have done better with but I had a plan and stuck to it.
Im sure there are people out there that think Im full of crap to them I say rock on LYC .
I see they are holding up very well today.
Read my post on the competition thread.

Welcome to Suntland

STRAT
21-04-2009, 03:02 PM
Gday Strat yeah 5 months is a bit rich but the original buys were relatively small.It has been since november that I have been using spare funds I have been earning and buying 80,000 here and 100,000 there when the price has been around 17 cents
In that time I built up a healthy amount and got my average price down to 20 cents
The price you pay for falling in love with the company.
Im sure there have been other companies I could have done better with but I had a plan and stuck to it.
Im sure there are people out there that think Im full of crap to them I say rock on LYC .
I see they are holding up very well today.
Read my post on the competition thread.

Welcome to SuntlandGood on ya for getting out with a decent profit. Not sure I would mark it down as success of a good plan though. Could have had a much sader outcome. LYC looks a far better bet. Chart looks good too.

stevo1
21-04-2009, 03:29 PM
I will have a crack at it Stevo,
Whats your time frame and entry point?

Your a champ Strat ,started entry at 12.5cps have been accumulating since still 35% short of the stake I want.Have been averaging up so looking to continue that at least cost.Time frame is to wait to get dividends once they go to processing (how long is that piece of string?)Maybe move some off the table when (should ) funding come but intend to hold long term.The TA could be useful to acheive the 35% more at least cost.

STRAT
25-04-2009, 10:17 AM
Hi Stevo,
Ok here goes. LYC broke out of a medium term down trend at the beginning of March and has been in an uptrend since. In the last week it has hit a ceiling at 31c twice. This may be the formation of a double top and a reversal. Time will tell. The 4 vertical lines are entry points given off by MacD, Relative Strength and OBV. With your excellent entry at 12.5c I would be looking for an exit if two or more of the 5 indicators here show a reversal. As you are long perhaps breaking below the 50 day moving average ( pink line ) and or the two steepest of the unconfirmed trend lines drawn in should be of most concern. I would be watching close next week to see if it turns or goes up past resistance at 31c-33c.
Phaedrus and AA
Can you let me and more importantly Stevo know if I am giving him a bum steer here. Otherwise any refinements or additions would be much appreciated

ps OBV is weekly, OBV Chart is one year ( not all shown )