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GB
10-02-2006, 02:11 PM
Page 5 Herald - ouch - this is what GB has been waiting for- gee i hope you are out Cap-

GB
10-02-2006, 02:48 PM
Cheers Jolly - i would say we are sailing 3 sheets to the wind at the moment mate - get some metals - it dont look good long term - too many signs saying watch the **** out

GB
10-02-2006, 03:03 PM
ps as of this morning i am short the indexes

GB
10-02-2006, 03:28 PM
Should i add dont expect a big fall- about %4 down
in pretty quick time

GB
10-02-2006, 07:58 PM
No i dont watch him although have heard a lot about him -i know all the gold bugs hate him- is that on sky Jolly ?
ps - he does move stocks because he has such a following -

Sideshow Bob
10-02-2006, 08:52 PM
GB - Briefly, what was the story on page 5 of the herald about??

GB
11-02-2006, 06:00 AM
Its online bob- but briefly sales down %30 for jan and average price down 70k

Sideshow Bob
11-02-2006, 09:55 AM
Thanks GB. Found it:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10367633

Capitalist
11-02-2006, 01:29 PM
quote:Originally posted by GB

Page 5 Herald - ouch - this is what GB has been waiting for- gee i hope you are out Cap-


You must have forgotten I am not in rental. Remember that land at Russell I bought 2-3 years ago for $250k. You said it was a bargain and you were right - it is now worth $1m. So good call!

I'm really hurting right now [:0]:D;)

GB
11-02-2006, 03:07 PM
You have done really well- for you to do opposite would have surprised me - well done

ari
15-02-2006, 08:11 AM
quote:You must have forgotten I am not in rental. Remember that land at Russell I bought 2-3 years ago for $250k. You said it was a bargain and you were right - it is now worth $1m. So good call!


I'm sure buying land even today is a good investment, hope so as I've just signed for 8 acre block 20 mins from North Shore.
Interesting re your Russell land.... we have almost 1/2 acre just over an hour Sth at popular surf beach...might just have to revisit the value:D

ari
17-02-2006, 02:39 PM
In a nutshell....
[quote]quote:Unlimited Magazine: Bursting bubbles

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Donal Curtin
Friday 17th February 2006

The housing market has been demonised in recent months: if the alarmists are to be believed, New Zealanders are borrowing bucketloads of cheap money, plunging into an overvalued and speculative housing market, and tapping into home equity to support a spending habit we can't afford. The Reserve Bank's at its wit's end: the spending splurge based on the increase in families' housing wealth has caused inflationary pressures, and the bank's attempts to rein in the housing market haven't worked.

Indeed, higher interest rates not only haven't brought the housing beast under control but have contributed to other problems (notably, the high Kiwi dollar). As a result, Treasury is now devising some new bludgeon that might beat some belated sense into house prices.

But two parts of this story seem, to me, to be seriously wrong: that New Zealanders are feckless with debt, and that the housing market has gone into a speculative mania.

It's true that some of the statistics on debt and savings look bad - particularly the estimate that in the year to March 2006 New Zealand households spent $1.14 for every $1 of after-tax income. On the other hand, the data show the average household is no more leveraged than before. Over the past year, house prices and housing lending have risen by roughly the same percentage, so the proportion of the value of the house that is the family's home equity hasn't changed (in the year to October house lending was up 16% and in the year to November national house prices were up 15.4%).

So if you had a $400,000 house with a $200,000 mortgage, and it becomes a $500,000 house with a $250,000 mortgage, the house, the loan, and the home equity have all gone up 25%, plus you've had a lump sum of $50,000 to spend (which is where the $1.14 comes from).

So from a balance-sheet point of view, households are in no riskier a position than before. From a cashflow or loan servicing perspective, while it's true that borrowers have had a bit of luck (such as a mortgage war between the banks), it's not obvious they're going to run into serious problems even as rates rise. Banks generally don't lend unless you pass a serviceability test, and in any event household incomes have been rising strongly with wage, salary and employment growth.

The second part of the story that is questionable is that the housing market has lost touch with economic fundamentals.

The housing market is actually behaving as it always has - and its normal behaviour can include pronounced cycles, up and down. And that cyclical behaviour lies in the way house buyers think about the cost of borrowing.

Arthur Grimes and two colleagues from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research recently did a sophisticated analysis of the housing market (see www.motu.org.nz). Perhaps the most important thing they found was that the housing market is a predictable mechanism. That, in itself, would lead you to be careful about assuming there's something irrationally exuberant going on.

Over the long haul, real house prices respond to three things - real economic activity, the cost of finance, and housing stock - in the ways you'd expect (growth is good for prices; expensive borrowing and increased housing supply are bad). But the really interesting thing is that 'cost of finance' bit. What matters for house prices is not the banks' mortgage rates, but the 'user cost of capital', which is the real mortgage rate, less house buyers' expectations of real house price gains. And that makes sense: you might not borrow at all, even at a low interest rate, if you thought house prices were going to fall, but you might well borrow, even at a significantly higher interest rate, if you thought house prices were going to rise strongly.

What the data c

Mr_Market
23-02-2006, 01:26 PM
Does anyone have any idea of how much foreign investment there is in NZ property? Now that the dollar is falling presuambly they will be keen to sell up and repatriate their money. Does anyone have any anecdotal evidence of this?

JBmurc
07-03-2006, 07:05 PM
just brought 6 sections 4500sqm in total cost me all of 90,000 (15,000ea) who said land was overvalued ,certainly not in invercargill
might build me some new rentals ;)
-didn,t think you could even subdivide(fully serviced) free land at 15,000 per section
once they find the oil;) JBMURC will be:D

GB
09-03-2006, 09:15 PM
That a bloody nice deal jb - good stuff

A J
09-03-2006, 11:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by JBmurc
once they find the oil;) JBMURC will be:D


Exactly what I was thinking when watching Close Up tonight, lol. Good to see I'm on the investing wave length.

Cheers
AJ

duncan macgregor
10-03-2006, 08:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

just brought 6 sections 4500sqm in total cost me all of 90,000 (15,000ea) who said land was overvalued ,certainly not in invercargill
might build me some new rentals ;)
-didn,t think you could even subdivide(fully serviced) free land at 15,000 per section
once they find the oil;) JBMURC will be:D

Well done but on the surface it is a great deal, but what are the numbers. Rental property rents out at what?. How much to build a good rental property?. Versus how much to buy an existing property to rent. You simply cant say because you got a bargain with sections that the numbers are right. I would think that the cost of building a house would be roughly similar over the whole country and we all know that rents are not. I would think [not that i know] that the better prospect would be to buy an existing home in a cheaper part of the country rather than build, and visa versa in a dearer part.
Let us know a few numbers we are all interested good luck. macdunk

ari
10-03-2006, 11:51 AM
quote:just brought 6 sections 4500sqm in total cost me all of 90,000 (15,000ea)
I just bought one block of 30200m2....@ $18.046 per m2...and I am more than happy:)
Obviously not in Invercargil!

duncan macgregor
10-03-2006, 12:28 PM
TAURANGA, I take it thats your hometown where you bought. The cost of building would be no higher than invercargil, the expected rents would be much higher, that covers the extra land cost. Better for you to build, and him to buy existing i would think. Lack of supply in your area over supply in his. macdunk

ari
10-03-2006, 01:22 PM
quote:TAURANGA, I take it thats your hometown where you bought
No.....next address Waitoki. So much for the downturn, certainly not with land prices. New (titles Dec last) lifestyle development 5km from Silverdale on ramp, have all but sold..10 sites, 2 left.
And 10km the otherway to Waitoki sees a 1ha block go on the market this week for $550k

duncan macgregor
10-03-2006, 01:29 PM
WAITOKI is a great investment area cant go wrong there. Pitty about the bloody council though the worst in nz if you want to do anything. macdunk

ari
10-03-2006, 03:40 PM
quote:Pitty about the bloody council though the worst in nz if you want to do anything. macdunk
Surely can't be worse than North Shore:)My dealings with Rodney have been excellent so far, too much so....I'm fully aware a curve ball is comming!
The only redeaming factor here, is that Rodney have taken over roading and fencing on subdivision as vendor vested 4ha to them (as it did not come under District plan), so it now comes under their control with the start of 200m r.o.w this morning.

barnsley bill
10-03-2006, 03:48 PM
South rodney is a huge growth area, the dairy flat/ waitoki area is booming, close to everything and on the doorstep of albany which is approaching FULL

duncan macgregor
10-03-2006, 06:31 PM
ARI, best of luck i once started off a project taking them to court where they backed down. they wanted me to upgrade a road that they actually though was mine. when i went through all the bull**** of proving it was theirs i could do nothing right after that. I shoved the inspector in his car and told him he was a dead man if ever we crossed paths again. I had to get the head man out to get a code of compliance in the end as i was taking them to court if one was not forth coming. The worst council in the whole world boot them up the backside if you want common sense to prevail. macdunk

JBmurc
15-03-2006, 08:01 PM
Well done but on the surface it is a great deal, but what are the numbers.

at the moment they are a long term investment owned by my rental LAQC , short term nothing much ,will wait till the builders & firms are screaming out for work next years imo, get a good price ;)at current rents and cost to build in invercargill 7-8%nett return shouldn,t be hard.haven,t decide
;)so much oil&energy cheap land with a very low pop. base
IMO its not if but when. ;)

trackers
17-03-2006, 06:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by JBmurc


Well done but on the surface it is a great deal, but what are the numbers.

at the moment they are a long term investment owned by my rental LAQC , short term nothing much ,will wait till the builders & firms are screaming out for work next years imo, get a good price ;)at current rents and cost to build in invercargill 7-8%nett return shouldn,t be hard.haven,t decide
;)so much oil&energy cheap land with a very low pop. base
IMO its not if but when. ;)


I made the decision recently that the next house I pick up I'll build - wait for the builders to clear their workload (~year and a half) then should be able to get one built pretty cheap as you say

JBmurc
10-04-2006, 05:34 PM
when EXXONMOBIL are looking you know theres got to be some serious oil in the GSB ,what this mean for the local city & southland.HUGE
;) where not talking couple million but billions barrels of oil
Why they haven,t be drilling for GAS onshore ,Southland has a massive amount of coal underground maybe some shallow (low cost to drill) coal seam gas may be also there(soon fix the energy problem)




Govt clashes with oil giant

02 April 2006

By GARRY SHEERAN

The world's largest oil company, ExxonMobil, has taken legal action against the New Zealand government as interest grows in a huge oil and gas exploration prospect off the South Island.

Exxon's action is the second legal stoush over the Great South Basin, embarrassing the government as it tries to run a smooth auction process for drilling permits this month.

The oil giant is one of several big oil companies the government has been trying to coax to New Zealand after Shell stopped local exploration three years ago.

These companies are considered to have the resources to drill for gas in the basin whose reserves are estimated to equal those of the Maui field when it was discovered 35 years ago.

The dispute with Exxon centres on seismic data which pinpoints the best places to drill in wild seas east and south of Stewart Island. ExxonMobil paid $US3.2 million (about $5m) for the data last year, but the government says Exxon must make it available to other oil companies interested in drilling in the basin.

The global oil giant refuses to part with the data, and has asked the High Court to back it. Proceedings for a declaratory judgement are set down for May 2.

Crown Minerals general manager Adam Feeley said all information on blocks of land or seabed being offered for exploration should be available to all interested parties.

Feeley said companies with exploration permits were required to give Crown Minerals a copy of seismic data. And when the permit expired or was revoked, the information became publicly available.

But ExxonMobil spokesman Peter Thornbury said his company had never been a permit holder, and the Crown had provided "no credible legal basis as to why it is entitled to the data.

"We think it unreasonable to think we would hand over what is propriety information."

The seismic data now owned by ExxonMobil was done by a Norwegian survey company for a consortium headed by Perth-based Bounty Oil, which held a permit to explore an area at the centre of the Great South Basin.

But the consortium never paid for the data after a dispute, and the survey company sold a small part of it to ExxonMobil to help it recover costs. Exxon later bought all the data covering 4000sq km of ocean floor.

Meanwhile, Crown Minerals revoked the permit held by Bounty because it had not started drilling in the agreed three-year time frame.

The action was seen in the industry as an attempt by Crown Minerals to evict a small player from the Great South Basin to allow big explorers like ExxonMobil to have a crack.

Bounty believes it has been misled and unfairly treated by Crown Minerals, and is fighting the permit revocation in the High Court in Wellington on May 16, not long after the ExxonMobil proceedings.

"So we have an interesting situation which the court must resolve," said Feeley.

The legal stoushes could not have come at a more embarrassing time for Crown Minerals, the agency which spearheads the government's drive to avert a looming energy crisis.

With only a lukewarm response by international explorers for blocks recently offered by auction off the Taranaki, Northland and East coasts of the North Island, high hopes were pinned on the Great South Basin.

A discovery there has the potential to solve New Zealand's energy problems for the next 30 years, as Maui has done for the past 30.

But the huge oil and gas potential lurks at depths of up to 1000m (Maui is in water 120m deep), with wave swells up to 10-12m and no onshore infrastructure in place. It all makes offshore Taranaki look tame b

JBmurc
02-06-2006, 08:06 PM
found this in the southland times yesterday.;)

The Invercargill City Council has bought 213ha of farmland at Awarua, south of the city, for between $3.5 million and $4.5 million.

Council chief executive Richard King said the council planned to rezone the site as industrial, in readiness for potential buyers who had already indicated an interest in the city.

"We are aware of certain things that could happen.;)(GSB OIL gas,lignite or gas energy power plant)

"We want the ability to offer suitably zoned land for enterprises eyeing up Invercargill for investment."

The land is adjacent to the Ballance Agri-Nutrients plant and opposite the South Pacific Meats plant on the Invercargill-to-Bluff highway.

The council would take possession of the site today, Mr King said.

It would take at least two years to go through the rezoning pro-cess.

foodee
03-06-2006, 02:37 PM
JB
Interesting reading.

Just look at SPN share price over last 3 months. [:p]

cheers

JBmurc
06-06-2006, 06:49 PM
checkout the southland times half page on the GREAT SOUTHERN BASIN
-just shows the potention of the area with talk of 5.5billion barrels of oil and some 315trill cbf gas with a gross value of $US800billion
and thats only GSB don,t forget the southwest solander basin and the large onshore western areas ;)

-JBMURC now holds 7 sections in invercargill
(I noticed over the last year the asking price of some of invercargill cheaper sections areas like clifton,kingswell going from 10-15,000 to 25,000-35,000[?];);)

tricha
09-06-2006, 07:10 PM
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schmidt/jun082006.htmlData:

Part of the articule, makes for interesting reading if u have property.
Does this relate to property in NZ [?][?]


Median Prices from NAR; Return assumes 5% down payment.

As you can see from this table, speculators are learning a painful lesson. Speculating in real estate on margin is even more dangerous than was the buying of technology stocks in 1999. Speculators using margin take the risk of being wiped out, and that is what is in process for many of them. Speculators that have bought condominiums now can expect to bleed for seven more months before being able to sell, on average. Some local markets are in far worse condition.

The mathematics of finance is why the pain is far from over for speculators in housing. Because of the “math,” prices are in the process of only beginning a collapse that will ultimately exceed 50%, and last well into 2008. For example, suppose an individual could afford a $2,500 per month housing payment, principal and interest only. At a 5% rate and 30-year pay, this buyer could borrow $466,000. The buyer would go out and bid $518,000, with 10% equity, for a home. The price did not matter, only the monthly payment.

If mortgage rates rise to 7%, that same monthly payment will only allow a loan of $376,000. No matter how much either the buyer or selling thinks housing prices might rise, the new buyer can only bid $418,000 for the house. The math alone drives the price down 20%. And at this point no consideration is given to the ability of the borrower to make the payments, the ability of the existing owner/speculator to continue making existing payments, or forced sales by financial institutions of foreclosed property.

tricha
10-06-2006, 11:40 PM
Hmm no answers.

I have two thoughts on the matter.

1 - inflation will kill any mortgage[?][?]

2 - we will be like the States, in free fall soon [?][?]

Anyway took the matters into my own hands, reduced risk.

Sold one rental, took profit, cut mortage nearly in half and now am cash flow positive from the other three.

Sleep even better at nite now, even with a doggi sharemarket.

duncan macgregor
13-06-2006, 01:02 PM
AH the doom and gloom merchants are coming out in force. Thats what a healthy market needs. The losers sell at the bottom, and buy at the top, the winners take this as an advantage, and exploit it.
Share markets, property markets, infact any market, goes to high, then falls to low. Insure yourself in the good times, to look after the bad times, because the next good time will always be better than the last time. Interest rates get fixed in the good times to compensate the bad times. You only buy at your price, which is normally in the bad times. The smart investor will be praying for really bad times to have a good time buying in then a great time selling in the next good time. macdunk

Bel
23-06-2006, 10:49 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10387940

Its easy for house prices to rise when a lesser fool will pay 1 billion dollars for a 1 bedroom shack when it's not his money he's spending. But what happens when the greater fool is unable to borrow $1.1 billion dollars to buy the shack to pay the lesser fool?

pimpit
01-07-2006, 11:15 PM
This is a good opportunity for housing investment entrepreneurs to jump in and take advantage of the blunt newbies who are wanting to make $ from housing.

It will be interesting to see what will happen to the price of the beachfront land I bought in West Coast for 50k.

trackers
04-07-2006, 05:30 AM
quote:Originally posted by pimpit

This is a good opportunity for housing investment entrepreneurs to jump in and take advantage of the blunt newbies who are wanting to make $ from housing.


Why?

tricha
09-07-2006, 03:23 PM
Well Pimpit - It will be interesting to see what will happen to the price of the beachfront land I bought in West Coast for 50k.

Well it depends where on the West Coast u bought it, Looks like anything out of town, except Westport, Greymouth, Hokitika, Reefton are all starting to fall as.

Yes gas going through the roof, cost of travelling getting too expensive and interest rates a killer..

Had 4 rentals, sold 1, took profit and have paid of a good part of my debt, whereby I am now totally cash flow positive.

So property can go on the rocks, as far as I am concerned.

I would hate to have a small block of land, section, on a big mortgage, because their days are numbered, out of town that is.

Steve
12-07-2006, 10:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

Had 4 rentals, sold 1, took profit and have paid of a good part of my debt, whereby I am now totally cash flow positive.

So property can go on the rocks, as far as I am concerned.

Personally, all of my rentals have been cashflow positive on purchase. Last year, I sold the highest value property which has left me with 2 debt-free rentals while I bide my time (possibly 2007?) before gearing back up and getting back in.

Bel
17-07-2006, 04:00 PM
Very clever plays by Steve and tricha IMHO. Its always the late comers that get fleeced. Ride the waves on the good times and shore up your cashflow for the hard times, bideing your time for the next wave.

Nice.

duncan macgregor
20-11-2006, 11:45 AM
quote:Originally posted by Bel

Very clever plays by Steve and tricha IMHO. Its always the late comers that get fleeced. Ride the waves on the good times and shore up your cashflow for the hard times, bideing your time for the next wave.

Nice.

Its all very good when you get a bit older and wiser to buy and sell in the waves as the opportunity arises. For the average wage earner The best investment is your first house regardless of the time cycle.
We all must pay rent or a mortgage unless you were born with that silver spoon in your mouth. The sooner you are on the ladder the better. One golden rule is never bite off more than you can chew, the price of the house will increase faster than you can save anyway. This gives you the chance to refinance, with some real money for business, or if you are not up to that, a reverse mortgage for your old age. Most people that i know have only a mortgage free property as their main asset, and are so thankfull for having the brain to buy their first house. All my property dealings increased in value more than the interest rates on money borrowed, with rent paid a bonus. Dont be a silly [:o)] buy your first home. macdunk

Bling_Bling
22-11-2006, 09:58 AM
The fact that everyone talking about properties, even the our cleaner and the local taxi driver tells me it is time to cash up. Thanks for coming. :D

Jess9
22-11-2006, 07:23 PM
I was reading the other day that maybe the RB won't raise interest rates as by doing so they widen the % gap between NZ and AUS, maintening or increasing the flow of AUS investment into the NZ housing market(attracted by the better yield)and perversly increasing liquidity, and against there desired objective. Sort of makes sense when you think it through.

Mind you with net migration increasing again...

but it must be the end of the boom or nearly there surely?? Investers may have equity but as banks re weight away from residential sooner rather than later, cashflow and equity criteria will tighten - forced sales??

Jus hope I still qualify to borrow and buy ; )

spector
23-11-2006, 07:03 PM
I agree with BB on this one. If there's one thing I've learnt in my life it's the great NZ sheep mentality.... everyone has jumped into property because everyone else was and sure as eggs everyone will jump out when they see others doing it. My prediction is June next year.

tricha
24-11-2006, 01:18 AM
Crash and Burn!

Just been back to NZ for 10 days, for family things.

Also looked at property in the Coromandel, 4 real estate shops and nothing selling!

Went to Mangahiwai Heads,( spelling might be wrong) same deal, ten shops in the town, 4 Realestate, nothing selling.

The Impression I have got is every town in NZ has an average of 3 subdivisions for sale, no sale!:(

Interest rates all went up last week, 9.5 % floating rate.

Example - $200,000 mortgage @ 9.5% = $19,000 interest, plus rates, plus insurance, plus maintenace.

Get the picture, Crash and Burn, my money stays in the scary market.

Cheers Tricha

spector
24-11-2006, 09:17 AM
It's spelt Mangawhai. Shame on your name.

Bling_Bling
24-11-2006, 02:02 PM
Looking at the propery press is amazes me the number of properties that are over $1 million + for sale. IS it me or have the avergae wage in NZ gone up to $1M?? HAHAHA... time for break in the property market, time for a kit kat?

tricha
27-11-2006, 01:11 AM
Time for break in the property market - u r onto it Bling_Bling.

It's going to break all right!

A good indication will be the employment market. There could be a lot of un-employed real estate agents coming on stream soon.

Especially at Mangahiwai Heads.

Bel
10-01-2007, 12:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor


the price of the house will increase faster than you can save anyway. This gives you the chance to refinance, with some real money for business, or if you are not up to that, a reverse mortgage for your old age. Most people that i know have only a mortgage free property as their main asset, and are so thankfull for having the brain to buy their first house. All my property dealings increased in value more than the interest rates on money borrowed, with rent paid a bonus. Dont be a silly [:o)] buy your first home. macdunk


I have to say i disagree with you Duncan. I'm certainly saving far more renting right now than a house would appreciate. I've run the figures countless times and it doesnt add up. (it's not like i don't want to own my first home, quite the opposite.)

$400,000 house, $100,000 deposit equates to $2500 every month in interest repayments for the first year. Thats basically my entire income after bills are paid.

+$40,000 in capital gains. (though to access this money i would have to pay thousands to realestate agents)
-$30,000 interest (first year remember)
-$16,000 inflation
-$3000 rates
-$1000 insurance
-$5,000 maintenance (low? high?)

Equals a loss of of $15,000 (very rough figure)

This is versus:
$100,000 invested in the bank at %7.5 (my ROI in the sharemarket for last year was %156 but thats no idicator for this year)
+$5000 after tax
+$20000 savings per year after yearly rent of $10,000 is paid.
-$4000 inflation.

So you can see why i choose to rent cheaply which allows me to be able to save and invest money in the sharemarket rather than dump all my savings into a home and not be able to even add to that savings ammount.

One day I will own a home but my dream now is to do it without a mortgage. Tis alright to dream isnt it?

tricha
17-02-2007, 01:21 AM
One more interest rise and I'd say the property market is screwed would be fair comment :(

House price median eases in January - REINZ
Email this storyPrint this story 12:55PM Friday February 16, 2007

Real Estate
Your Views: Auckland house prices
Fake furniture - tick. Fake family - ticket to court
The national median price for property eased in January to $327,000 from $330,000 the month before, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) says.

The fall came as the median dropped in the largest market, Auckland, and the fourth largest market, Wellington, while being unchanged in the third largest, Canterbury/Westland.

And while the median fell, the 7566 sales last month were well up on the 6360 in January in 2006. The days to sell median was 38, the same as January last year.

In Auckland the median price fell to $415,000 in January, from $422,500 in December. In Wellington it dropped to $351,868 from $365,000, and in Canterbury/Westland stayed the same at $290,000.

In the second largest market, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, the median increased to $307,875 from $300,000.

National growth for the year was 9 per cent, from $300,000 to $327,000, with the fastest growing region being Southland, which rose 25.6 per cent from $124,250 in January 2006 to $156,000 this January.


Next fastest growing region was Manawatu/Wanganui up 19.4 per cent from $180,000 to $215,000, while Taranaki was third with a rise of 18.5 per cent from $230,000 to $272,500.

REINZ national president Murray Cleland said the trend was a continuation of that seen in 2006.

The growth rate in house prices for major metropolitan areas was slowing after growing dramatically between 2003 and 2005, while the smaller provinces and their cities caught up.

January tended to be a fragmented month and it was not uncommon to see the median price dip a little, Mr Cleland said.

Median price changes in other regions from December to January were:

*Northland, from $290,500 in December to $305,000 in January
*Hawke's Bay, $255,000 to $280,000
*Manawatu/Wanganui unchanged at $215,000
*Taranaki, $270,000 to $272,500
*Nelson/Marlborough, $320,000 to $307,000
*Central Otago Lakes, $422,500 to $432,200
*Otago, $229,000 to $221,750
*Southland, $150,000 to $156,000.

- NZPA

roddy
17-02-2007, 12:33 PM
Tricha i think perhaps you are getting a little carried away,our real estate market is far from screwed only those who have leapt headlong into a highly
leveraged position or who are negatinely geared will have any problem,so long as mr average can meet his mortgage and doesnt have to sell,then i dont forsee any problem,sure the market might come back a bit and yes some equity might be lost,and the number of spec houses will slow,others as Mcd
would call this good shopping!

cheers roddy

tricha
18-02-2007, 01:53 AM
Roddy - I take it you have substituted the word screwed to mean good shopping, fair enough.

I did not say the NZ Property market was screwed, I said One more interest rise and I'd say the property market is screwed. Why, because it refers to the articule below.
An interest rate wise would be the nail in the coffin. And the articule below would be changed from ease to plummet[xx(]

It relates to this articule - House price median eases in January - REINZ
Email this storyPrint this story 12:55PM Friday February 16, 2007

Cheers [B)][}:)]

duncan macgregor
18-02-2007, 02:06 PM
quote:Originally posted by roddy

Tricha i think perhaps you are getting a little carried away,our real estate market is far from screwed only those who have leapt headlong into a highly
leveraged position or who are negatinely geared will have any problem,so long as mr average can meet his mortgage and doesnt have to sell,then i dont forsee any problem,sure the market might come back a bit and yes some equity might be lost,and the number of spec houses will slow,others as Mcd
would call this good shopping!

cheers roddy
exactly my thoughts. Sell sell the world is coming to an end. :D:D:D macdunk

roddy
19-02-2007, 09:05 PM
Hi Tricha,
My bank manager says that the bank has already factored in half of an interest rate rise,as they say its not a matter of, if it happens but when ,so hopefully it wont tip the scales overly,i dont normally post on this part of the forum,i would say though that i am about to build a spec house around April-May and expect to make between 13-15% above expenses,i am confident of achieving this !

i do agree that yes prices have been going up faster than what is sustainable,and we are due for a correction or a slow down,but if one was to go by history, well located, well designed houses over the long term will be good!

cheers roddy

Steve
20-02-2007, 06:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by roddy

i do agree that yes prices have been going up faster than what is sustainable,and we are due for a correction or a slow down,but if one was to go by history, well located, well designed houses over the long term will be good!

Agreed! Unfortunately, it is expected to be the newer investors/speculators geared up to the hilt who will suffer the financial hurt, while the older heads are positioning themselves to take benefit of any downturn

tricha
23-02-2007, 01:31 AM
duncan macgregor - "exactly my thoughts. Sell sell the world is coming to an end.:D:D:D macdunk"


U R on to it Duncan! Transpose the USA to mean NZ, NZ Debt % out there.
Also with oil now hitting $60 a barrell again, hmm, inflation and deficits lead to rapid growth in debt, inflation and higher interest rates.



GRANDICH LETTER SPECIAL ALERT:

The Year of the Pig and the Coming Trip to the Slaughterhouse


By Peter Grandich
February 21, 2007

www.grandich.com



While the Chinese celebrate the year of the pig, the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street are fattening up their piglets with “Goldilocks “economic forecasts despite storm clouds on the horizon. TOUT-TV (CNBC-TV) continues to do its part in getting the piglets ready for the trip to the slaughterhouse even though the announced new FOX Business Channel may become reality in time to save some from becoming bacon.

It’s my firm belief that the financial markets are at a crossroad never before seen. Unlike many of their neighbors to the North, most American investors are either unaware of the storm approaching or believe it will not hit them. Perhaps by robbing Peter to pay Paul so they can attempt to keep up with the Joneses, the typical American investor is unaware of the mortal danger fast approaching. You have to have sympathy for them knowing their leading “weather forecaster” on TOUT-TV spends most of his time hitting buttons and screaming at the camera. It will be interesting to hear what it will be like hearing the piglets screaming “Boo-yah” as they hustle down the ramp into the slaughterhouse (Mark Skousen comments
http://www.investment-u.com/ppc/splash_cramer.cfm?kw=XVVIUE89)

Overall Assessment

It’s my contention that America has been robbing Peter to pay Paul but Peter is now tapped out. Thanks to Wall Street and Madison Avenue, the average American has been led to believe that more money equals more happiness. Unfortunately, they’re killing themselves by trying to keep up with the Joneses by obtaining many things, but owning outright very little of them. They bow not to their God in Heaven but to their debt pushers. It may be hard to believe, but Shania Twain has seen the reality of all this better than most in her song “Ka-Ching”. I urge you to seriously listen to all the lyrics (as hard as that can be with Shania in the video). It’s an absolute bulls-eye assessment on how Americans have been living. http://youtube.com/watch?v=27vdkmU8ErE

America’s day as the world’s number one economic power is ending. The only question is how bad will it get? Most Americans have no idea or have chosen to ignore it. Their reckoning day is near!

U.S. Economy

The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd continues to tout a “Goldilocks’” economy forthcoming. This is where the economy is not too hot, nor is it too cold, but just right. Putting aside for a moment the fact that finding a needle in a haystack is easier than finding an actual time in America’s past when such an occurrence took place, let’s try to remember our childhood fable. What seems to be forgotten with the Goldilocks analogy is the end of the story, which, depending on the version, wraps up with Goldilocks either fleeing for her dear life out the back door, or being eaten by the angry bears.

Such shall be the case, IMHO, here in the good old USA. Yes, for now, TOUT-TV fable tellers Haines, Kernan, Kudlow and crew seemingly have turned fiction into non-fiction. But just like former CNBC anchorman Neal Cavuto (now FOX News Business Editor) will huff and puff and blow down his former home with FOX’s new business channel (please God), so shall this Goldilocks’ hoax be shown for what it really is – empty promises.

There are a whole host of factors that have come together to form the perfect economic, social and political storm:

Economic Front

It’s extremely important to remember that the U.S. is the world’s largest d

tricha
23-02-2007, 01:48 AM
Hello Roddy

"i would say though that i am about to build a spec house around April-May and expect to make between 13-15% above expenses,i am confident of achieving this !"

You must be onto it, location, building costs .etc. Roddy

Myself, I'm looking at buying a semi retirement home at a decent price, in a beautiful area like Nelson where prices are lowering and there are heaps of places for sale. ( People in Nelson want Auckland prices but the pay is pretty low)

The Japanese raised their interest rate by .5% yesterday, what does this mean to the worldwide scene, imm [?][?][?]

With rates on the up in NZ, 8% on $300,000 = $24,000 interest

Thats $500 a week to cover your mortgage [xx(]

Food for thought [8]

cantab
23-02-2007, 11:23 AM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

duncan macgregor - "exactly my thoughts. Sell sell the world is coming to an end.:D:D:D macdunk"


U R on to it Duncan! Transpose the USA to mean NZ, NZ Debt % out there.
Also with oil now hitting $60 a barrell again, hmm, inflation and deficits lead to rapid growth in debt, inflation and higher interest rates.



GRANDICH LETTER SPECIAL ALERT:

The Year of the Pig and the Coming Trip to the Slaughterhouse




This is no ordinary pig year, this is the year of the GOLDEN PIG which occurs only once every 600 years, and the Chinese are hard at it trying to have a kid. 2007 will be a prosperous year. [:p]

roddy
26-02-2007, 02:32 PM
Hi Tricha
>Myself, I'm looking at buying a semi retirement >home at a decent price, in a beautiful area like >Nelson where prices are lowering and there are >heaps of places for sale. ( People in Nelson want >Auckland prices but the pay is pretty low)

Good on you Tricha, it wasnt to long ago that Nelson was on the box telling everybody that Nelson was the place to be,and that property was appreciateing with the demand.

on my spec house i am waiting for the title to come thru after that i will be building and flicking as soon as possible,holding costs otherwise will be biting into profit

>The Japanese raised their interest rate by .5% >yesterday, what does this mean to the worldwide >scene, imm

imho the Yen seems to be moving slowly,as per your earlier post regard the U.S it may have more influence over world money flows.

cheers roddy

cantab
09-03-2007, 04:20 PM
The RB is forecasting a rise in house prices of 7.7% this year, 2.5% next year and 0.5% the year after. It looks like 2 Year fixed rates could drop a little.

cantab
09-03-2007, 09:18 PM
It's in this link

http://www.bnz.co.nz/About_Us/1,1184,3-29-319,FF.html?pmarkC=Image&pmarkK=1423HPUL4Economics070309

cantab
09-03-2007, 10:24 PM
Aspex, IMO it's too late to do anything. The logic seems to be that the housing market is going to continue to go up and up. When people start talking like that it probably signals the end of this cycle. The horse has already bolted, and has run its 2 miles.

Mick100
16-03-2007, 02:33 AM
FROM THE SUB-PRIME TO THE RIDICULOUS
by Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
March 14, 2007

With the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector now laid bare, many on Wall Street desperately cling to the notion that the pain will be localized. The prevalent delusion is that the overall mortgage, housing and stock markets will be little impacted by the carnage ravaging the sub-prime sector. As such, renewed stock market weakness is seen as an over-reaction and a great buying opportunity. These assumptions represent wishful thinking in the extreme.

Those who think that the sub-prime market is unrelated to the broader economy do not understand that the problem is not just the fiscal responsibility of marginal borrowers, but the inherent weakness of the entire U.S. economy. It’s just that the sub-prime sector, being one of the most vulnerable spots, is where the problems are first surfacing.

Think of the U.S. economy as an unstable dam. The first leaks will be seen in the dam’s most vulnerable spot. But there will be many more leaks to follow. Before long the entire dam will collapse. It would be a fatal mistake for those living downstream to assume a leak is an isolated event, unrelated to the integrity of the dam itself. But that is exactly what those on Wall Street are doing with respect the horrific data emanating from the sub-prime market.

The bottom line is that far too many Americas, not simply those with low credit scores, have borrowed more money then they are realistically capable of repaying. The credit boom was created by initially low adjustable rate mortgages, interest only, or negative amortization loans, and an appreciating real estate market that allowed homeowners to extract equity to help make mortgage payments. Now that real estate prices have stopped rising, and mortgage payments are resetting higher, borrowers can no longer “afford” to make these payments.

Significantly, most sub-prime loans involved low “teaser” rates that lasted for only two years. In contrast, teaser rates for most prime ARMs typically last for five years. This difference, rather than any inherent distinction in the fiscal health or credit worthiness of the borrowers, explains why the delinquencies are so much higher in the sub-prime sector.

Of course, the vast majority of home loans in the last few years, sub-prime or otherwise, should never have been made in the first place. However, when real estate prices were rising, no one cared about the wildly optimistic assumptions or the out-and-out fraud inherent in the loan process. Everyone was making money. Borrowers, regardless of their ability to pay off their loans, thought they were getting rich as real estate prices rose. On the other side, home builders, real estate agents, appraisers, mortgage brokers, mortgage originators, Wall Street brokerages that securitized the loans and the hedge fund clients who bought them, were all getting rich as a result of booming credit. For the charade to continue, borrowers pretended they could pay and lenders pretended that they would be paid.

The fix now being suggested by some members of the U.S. Congress demonstrates how Washington completely misunderstands market dynamics. Their legislative proposals will require that lenders make potential borrowers verify their incomes and restrict credit only to those who can afford the payments after the teaser periods end. Washington fails to grasp that a return to traditional lending standards would precipitate a return to traditional prices, which are way below current levels. There is just no way to crack down on lenders without causing a crash in the real estate market. However, continuing to look the other way is no panacea either as the real estate market is already in the process of collapsing under its own weight.

It is also typical and very disingenuous for lawmakers to feign outrage, or to have waited until a collapse occurs before taking action. Just like with the Internet bubble of the late 1990’s, the government refused to act in advance of th

tricha
18-03-2007, 02:59 AM
Good one Mick, how does this apply to NZ [?][?][?]

Scenario 1 - Will NZ property prices crash [?][?]

Scenario 2 - Inflation rampant and as we know 1, 2 and now 5 cent pieces gone, cash is trash [xx(][xx(][xx(]

arco
13-04-2007, 09:33 PM
For those with time on their hands heres
a little light reading from the UK

House Price Crash forum

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/

Serious stuff ;)

Dazza
14-04-2007, 03:24 PM
Fellow investors.

My young age has not given me enough experience with regards to economic melaise and crashes.

I'd like to hear some experiences of how much the property prices on average fell during the 87, 97, 00 crashes of our century.

I was too young and unaware of the situations and outcomes.

I have done some calculations and it seems with regards to east auckland, i'd need a 20% fall in houses ie 500k down to 400k in order for me to even contemplate about investing / buying my first house.

that includes having a 100k downpayment.


So i'd like to know roughly how much does the prices fall,

when they say a housing slump, does that generally mean a flat growth in capital gain, or just a minor fall in prices?

my dad says to me, that property in nzl neva falls, at worst its just flat.

if that is so.... is discouraging for me.. as rite now i guess im waiting for the fall.

many thanks,
dazza

Dazza
14-04-2007, 05:48 PM
ic

would he have sold it to me for say 80k :P

i guess when they are desperate, they will sell if cash comes up eh ?

all these freaken baby boomers and cash they have, not to mention overseas cash coming in.......

Steve
15-04-2007, 08:20 AM
quote:Originally posted by aspex

It may not be so much the amount of the fall as the lack of liquidity in the market.
No buyers so the vendor is stuck with massive outgoings and nowhere to go.
1. It does not need a large fall in the general market.
2. It is all to do with cashflow.
3. Ultimately the banks own you.
Some think that because they have say five properties, they can sell one to relieve the pressure.[B)]
Boy, have I news for them when the market turns.[}:)]

Very well explained, Aspex.

If you are one of those people who have only recently (say up to last 2 years) got into the property market by being leveraged to the hilt, then you are probably not in a strong position.

It used to be that the property 'experts' always said "only buy cashflow positive properties" as the key was to have the tenants pay the mortgage for you.

Personally, I am waiting for some bargins from desperate sellers, hopefully not in the too distant future...

Jess9
15-04-2007, 12:03 PM
See latest property investor mag shows a small decline in median house price for Tauranga. Also - looking in that area's current Property Press, I noted several houses advertised with a "price reduced" banner in one corner. Properties were mostly in Papamoa, Welcome Bay. Drops ranged from 10 to 40K - off bases over 500K however. Is this just the next phase of house marketing i.e. tricking buyers into an over priced "bargain" - or the wind actually changing in this property cycle?

Any others noticed price reductions making it into advertising elsewhere yet?

Sideshow Bob
15-04-2007, 03:33 PM
It's been happening here in Dunedin a bit, but maybe were over-priced to start with. A pretty unscientific survey of the property press and local rag over recent weeks seems to indicate generally houses aren't moving nowhere near as fast, especially at the top end of the market.

If interest rates go again, there have got to be some people hurting when the fixed interest setting rolls around again.

Dazza
15-04-2007, 08:56 PM
i want them to burn lol :D

as i await for my house deposit to grow into a beast on the ASX...

i await...

mind u signs are aussie housing market heating up supposedly?

come on kiwis, feel the burnnnnnnnnn :D

limegreen
18-04-2007, 02:32 PM
Seeing as we have a slight meeting of Dunedin property trainspotters, I thought I'd share my Dunedin City observations. Sales volumes have dropped off a bit, but are still above pre-boom levels. My crude, month-to-month On Balance Volume indicator is tracking sideways. Prices are continuing to head up, but in a more genteel fashion. I'd have thought March's data would be out by now, but this only includes Feb 07. The QV report suggests March was reasonably positive.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/dunedinhouseprice.gif

Days on market appears to be gently cooling, but is well off pre-boom levels.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/daysonmarket.gif

I do agree with respect to the importance of cashflow :)

Farouk
18-04-2007, 03:59 PM
Dazza you wanted to know about previous price crashes, well here is an instance where I got burned a little bit.
I bought a 3 bedroom house with views over Evans Bay in Hataitai (Wellington) in mid-1989 for $156000. I sold it in 1994 after being on the market for over a year for $145000.I had maintained it fairly well & even had the whole place painted, as well as a new oven & new gas heater.
I imagine that that house would sell these days for 300G plus, but my timing was a bit dodgy.
That I would imagine is a typical example of the late-80s price dip.

Sideshow Bob
18-04-2007, 05:57 PM
Limegreen,

I bow to your superior (scientific) information. Mine was based strictly on observation. Believe that late 90's was quite stagnant in these parts.

Nice work on the moving averages!!

Cheers

Dazza
18-04-2007, 10:13 PM
cheers farouk

yeah cause as a young lad, about to get married in the next year or so

i need some comfort that i am able to buy a house.......

all the old folks these days got too much cash......


sorry to be mean :D

but us young folk aint exactly having a good ride !! here mind u


id like some experiences of baby boomers or near baby boomers

how hard/easy it was for them to buy their first home?

many thanks

peat
18-04-2007, 10:49 PM
Dazza
my experience back in late 80's ...
Sh*t myself a bit after the stockmarket crash not my losses just amazement at the extermination of so much money - I was working for a broker actually needless to say it wasnt fun times. So I started saving heavy for a few years as a protection against the surrounding gloom. Keynes wouldnt like me for it hehe but thats how individuals react. I watched the commercial property ugliness following on from the sharemarket collapse, job losses were pretty common - twas all good incentive.
By 91 it wasnt getting any worse, and I used the money I had saved to quickly increase it by %20 on Michael Hill shares- he was charismatic and a favourite at the time. That was bit risky but gave me enough to start toying with the idea of buying and by 91 interest rates were low enough that a hundred thousand mortage was somewhere around the cost of renting and certainly cheaper than saving and renting so I jumped.
The Bank wanted Loan Protection insurance coz I only had 20% on a small Kingsland villa !! I was quite risky haha that seems real funny now.
I didnt buy it for appreciation - I really liked it for itself , but I knew it was as cheap as it would ever be.

limegreen
18-04-2007, 11:00 PM
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob
Believe that late 90's was quite stagnant in these parts.


I'd heard the entire 90s and perhaps a bit beyond back the other way. That it wasn't necessarily hard to sell a house, but that you never made any money on it. I know people who picked up places for around 30k in the mid-90s. Now I know what those lump-sum student loan payments should have been used for[B)]

limegreen
19-04-2007, 03:11 PM
UPDATE: March figures are out. The median house price for Dunedin is steady at 250,000, as is days on market (24). I had to adjust the scale on my graph as the average house price has increased to 292k. I've been curious about the divergence between median and mean lately. There are a few possible explanations, but hard to say which one is the most accurate. 311 sales is good volume for April as well.

coge
19-04-2007, 03:36 PM
Hi Dazza. I bought my first place in '92 for $93k in Newlands Wellington. It had been advertised at $118K. A three bedroom townhouse with all day sun & fresh air. I worked at a bank & got a staff 7% mortgage as soon as I qualified for one. The bank did restrict the lending amount to staff. I borrowed the max. I had been determined to buy a house, & it took about 2 1/2 years to save the deposit. I also worked part-time & was living at home which helped to save my $17k deposit. Still had to cut the cloth back then. These days I don't work anywhere near as hard. I bought mine at 24 & did know a guy who got his at 21, which inspired me in part. Three bedrooms is useful for taking on flatmates too.

I agree that not much capital gain occurred in the nineties, so in my mind the recent boom has been a catch up of sorts. The completion of the Newlands overpass did give prices a shot in the arm however.

nelehdine
19-04-2007, 07:08 PM
I've bgt 4 rentals in the last ten days ... first inkling of a buyers market. 3 Year fixed at 8.5% just in case Bollard loses the plot. Budgeting on 3-4% price appreciation p.a. gives me a return on equity in the high teens. Still a pretty solid investment not even including or thinking about the tax advantages ...

Halebop
19-04-2007, 07:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

I've bgt 4 rentals in the last ten days ... first inkling of a buyers market. 3 Year fixed at 8.5% just in case Bollard loses the plot. Budgeting on 3-4% price appreciation p.a. gives me a return on equity in the high teens. Still a pretty solid investment not even including or thinking about the tax advantages ...

...if you budget on 50% growth the returns are even better!

lakedaemonian
19-04-2007, 10:05 PM
I was just reading a comparison of NZ prices for the years 1917 and 2007 in some industry journal .

Granted, a comparison between just two years can be quite dangerous to jump to any conclusions over but one thing exploded off of the page containing about 50 prices such as: average wage, car price, pint of beer, meal, blah, blah blah.....

the price of the average house compared to the average wage

In 1917 3x the average wage buys the average house

In 2007 10x the average wage buys the average house

Pretty sobering stuff since a wage can only be stretched soooooooo far via exotic financing, marketing, and lemming-like public perception before things snap back to(or below) the mean.

peat
20-04-2007, 10:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop


quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Budgeting on 3-4% price appreciation p.a.

...if you budget on 50% growth the returns are even better!

;) yeh I dont get this, how does one budget for appreciation. It happens or it doesnt surely you have to wait and see.

R2
20-04-2007, 06:49 PM
lakedaemonian, building on your post, I think the economic structure of households are different today compared to 1917.

With that in mind, segmenting 2006 census data - income type - it appears that salary & wage income increases at a household level could be driving the rise in house prices, as distinct from other income segments. That is apart from coastal property increases which are driven by dairy farmers (this later info.is not ex census data). Therefore increases will hit a ceiling soon as household income has increased by 28% since 2002 which appears to be less than the rise in house prices. I guess that is obvious to us all... and then level off or decline in real terms relative to the future of household salary and wage growth.. until they grow exponentially again. Quite unexicting really aint it.

[http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/table-builder/default.htm]

Dazza
20-04-2007, 10:20 PM
cheers all for your experiences.


nel are u able to disclose more about ur recent purchases, am looking on the market at the moment.


Limegreen - did u get my email?

i was just requesting a copy of ur spreadsheet, so i can emulate it with regards to dannemora

email me at chowad@xtra.co.nz

many thanks

nelehdine
21-04-2007, 09:00 AM
All four in Wanganui, Dazza. Best performing city for price appreciation in NZ last year. Still can buy a very nice renovated period villa within 15mins walk of the CBD for under $200k ... same house in a grotty damp suburb of Wellington would be above $500k I would think. Rents are around $190-$230/week. Settled on the first purchase yesterday. Paid $148,250 for it , again a 1900's villa , in the "High School Zone" and received 5 calls before midday the day the ad went in to rent it. Agent who sold me the property said his rentals team thought it might achieve $195/wk ... I let it to the first caller for $215 , they said anything under $200 these days and you were living in a pretty grotty "not had any money spent on it for 10 years" house in a rough area of town. The rental departments of the real estate co's in Wanganui need to get with the times !! Always add at least 10% on top of what they think you should ask !. Check out the Harcourts web-site ... Ref No. WN070339 , went un-conditional on this yesterday at $168,500 , should get $225 minimum/ week maybe $235 , good location , very neat and tidy. Can see it being worth $200k in 3 years time easily which would double my equity.

nelehdine
21-04-2007, 09:10 AM
Peat ... in any business plan whether you are selling fish and chips or building grain silo's you have to have a budget for the following year... increased sales, more staff, new markets. None of these are a given but you have to plan on something. In property investment gains have averaged over the long term between 8 and 10% since ... along time ago. In my business plan I aim to add 4 houses to my portfolio every year and in order to do that I have put a 3.5% ( inflation is around this level ) price appreciation factor into my plans. Even at current interest rates assuming I buy well I can see no reason why I cannot achieve this.

Dazza
21-04-2007, 10:28 PM
do u reside in wanganiu urself or?

i live in auckland

do u have any property agents/managers u recommend?


hard to invest if i wont be able to travel down there mind u...

nelehdine
22-04-2007, 10:14 AM
No Dazza, I live in Marlborough , have an interest in 110 acres of Sauvignon Blanc down here which I manage the financial side of. I was raised in Wanganui so know it pretty well . Will fly up every 12 weeks or so to check out new purchase opps and also keep an eye on.

Where's the next hot suburb in the big smoke , I was told about 6 months ago to watch Mangere Bridge ...

Jess9
22-04-2007, 02:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by Farouk

Dazza you wanted to know about previous price crashes, well here is an instance where I got burned a little bit.
I bought a 3 bedroom house with views over Evans Bay in Hataitai (Wellington) in mid-1989 for $156000. I sold it in 1994 after being on the market for over a year for $145000.I had maintained it fairly well & even had the whole place painted, as well as a new oven & new gas heater.
I imagine that that house would sell these days for 300G plus, but my timing was a bit dodgy.
That I would imagine is a typical example of the late-80s price dip.



Farouk, out of interest, did you get many offers in that year on the market? Where they much lower?

I guess if you had to sell sooner, the loss may have been more?

Also factor in inflation running at 2-3% over that 4-5 year period and the above is about what I would expect again this time round. In some ways the slump almost appears as simple a lack of interest -depending on your particular interest.

Farouk
23-04-2007, 09:29 AM
Jess9, no I am pretty sure there were no offers over that year. We had it listed with "Leaders" as I recall, and they were no good at all. I remember that the Agent said "Why don't we try an auction?" No thanks matee was my reply to that, as all they wanted was to get the fee for auctioning it, I'm sure it would have got passed in.
After a year, I got annoyed with that useless Leaders outfit & rang up "Bethunes" that had an office in Hataitai & told them about it & as I recall they sold it within a day or 2, although at a loss of about 10 grand for me.
Such are the breaks with the property cycle. My present house I bought in 1995 (exactly 12 years coming up as we moved in on Anzac Day) and I paid $310000 & I am pretty sure that I would get at least $800000 if I sold it now. (I wouldn't sell it for less anyway as I like it too much).

Winston001
10-05-2007, 09:50 AM
Just for your information, I bought my house in Invercargill in 1991 for $170,000. Large house, good location. By 1995 the valuation was $145,000.

Today, 16 years on it is worth $350,000. A nice paper gain but insignificant when compared to many other areas of NZ.

srotherh
10-05-2007, 07:01 PM
This is part of the statement from the reserve bank yesterday for their Financial Stability Report


quote:"An adjustment would happen at some point, and when it did it would have an adverse impact on the financial sector.

It's a bit like a rubber band. The further a rubber band gets stretched, the more likely it is that you're going to have a sharp correction at some point, Spencer said.

Despite the concerns about riskier lending, New Zealand was probably still conservative by some international standards.

More growth was in loans for 80 to 90% of the value of a house, than in those between 90 and 100%.

Bollard said he had seen some change in bank behaviour in the past few months, so the Reserve Bank was less concerned about the possibility of unsustainably low margins than it had been.

There had been a broader understanding among banks of concerns about an overloaded household debt market, and a realisation that was not good for households, and not necessarily good for New Zealand or bank shareholders.

Today's report said bank residential mortgage lending had shown a resurgence in recent months.

As at the end of December, bank residential mortgage lending was about 136% of personal disposable income, continuing the rise in that ratio. At the end of February, lending to the sector stood at about $132 billion -- 52% of total bank claims.

Household debt had increased by 10% in real terms during the year to December, and was now 160% of household disposable income. In nominal terms household debt was over $150 billion.


Read the last two sentences again
Geez
The rubber band has to snap at some stage??
anyone think this will not correct at some point???
If so post your reasons

arco
11-05-2007, 06:12 PM
May 2007

House prices are likely to rise even further as the Government reveals new regulations aimed at making buildings more energy efficient.

In order to use 30 percent less energy, new houses in the South Island and the Central Plateau in the North Island will require double-glazing and increased insulation from November. Tougher insulation regulations for the rest of the North Island will take effect from July 2008. For Auckland and Northland, the date will be October 2008. The new measures will include a reduction of up to $500 on the cost of installing solar water systems and more energy efficient lighting for new commercial buildings.

Prime Minister Helen Clark says creating drier and more efficient houses and commercial buildings is a triple win for New Zealanders' health, the environment and power bills.

"The Labour-led government believes that New Zealand should strive to be the world's first truly sustainable nation."

The Government claims a home built under the new standards will save anywhere from $760 to $1800 a year on power bills.

Building and Construction Minister Clayton Cosgrove has also announced two further proposals for public consultation. One requires domestic hot water systems in new homes to be more energy efficient while the second applies energy efficient standards to heating, ventilation and air-condition systems in new commercial buildings.

But Pieter Burghout, CEO of the Registered Master Builders Federation says the construction cost of a new house will go up at least $5,000 if the double-glazing and insulation measures are introduced. He says that figure will be even higher if solar water heating is installed. Mr Burghout says the measures will have a double-whammy effect as the price of an older house will also increase.

Consultation on the issue will close on June 29, 2007.

http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/default.aspx?id=72731