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mark100
16-02-2006, 04:57 PM
VDM Group are a consulting engineer and contracting group based in WA. They raised $8.2m @ $1 per share and listed yesterday. The offer was heavily oversubcribed. They opened at 1.50 and have traded between 1.50 and 1.60.

The purpose of the listing is to raise additional capital and acquire a consultant and contracting firm. These companies are being purchased with shares. There is no shareholder selldown.

The public offer was for 16% of the company. The major holders all have their shares escrowed for 12 months.

66% of profits are forecast to come from the consulting divisions with the remainder to come from contracting.

The are forecasting FY06 NPAT of $7.02m. This puts them on a prospective PE of 11 and annualised yield of 4%, representing a 30% payout. Going forward they expect to pay 50-65% of earnings as divs so the yield should rise next year.

The forward PE's of the other listed consultants are:
CDD 16
LYL 16
COF 17

After the float, VDM Group will consist of 3 consulting companies and 3 contracters.

Consultants:
Van der meer Consulting: Operate in WA, NSW, QLD, Vietnam and Bahrain. Specialise in civil, structural and project management
Burchill Partners: Operate in QLD. Civil, Structural and Town Planners
Belling: Operate on Gold Coast. Environmental Engineers, ecological assessment, water cycle management

Contracters:
Civmec: Civil and Mechanical construction. Servicing mining, resourse and Oil & Gas sector
Keytown Constructions: Builder providing design, engineering and construction services to commercial, industrial and residential sector
Structural Fabrications (40% owned): Steel fabricators for construction industry

Positives I see are:
At 1.50 it is still trading at a 30% discount to similar companies
The original Van der meer group has been operating for 29 year
Other listed companies in the sector have performed very well
The WA and QLD focus is also beneficial

The negaitves I see are:
Possibly more residential property focused than comparable companies
Keytown Constructions is undertaking 3 JV developments consisting of commercial, residential and industrial.
Poor liquidity

Note: I purchased at 1.50

RiskyBiz
16-02-2006, 06:34 PM
IMO this is a great company. Well positioned in the WA and QLD markets and good value compared to its peers.


picked up some in the IPO..happily holding

mark100
27-02-2006, 10:18 PM
Moved to a new high today of $1.80, up 6% for the day on reasonable volume. Liquidity is poor however.

FY06 PE based on prospectus forecasts is now 13.5, still a discount to the sector.

Mark

steve fleming
27-02-2006, 10:30 PM
quote:Originally posted by mark100

Moved to a new high today of $1.80, up 6% for the day on reasonable volume. Liquidity is poor however.

FY06 PE based on prospectus forecasts is now 13.5, still a discount to the sector.

Mark


This is a well run profitable company with great growth prospects both nationally and internationally,...unfortunately, I had my cheque for the IPO subscription returned to me as well....so kind of lost a bit of interest in it after that...and not too keen to pay almost 2 X the IPO price to enter, however good luck to holders....you will do very well

RiskyBiz
28-02-2006, 03:01 PM
VDM Group
New high of $1.99 today.
From an IPO price of $1.00 to this in under 2weeks!
I think I am going to have to take some profit!

mark100
30-03-2006, 03:02 PM
VDM's construction division, Civmec has announced a new $17m contract with RIO. A couple of weeks ago they also won a new $30m contract with the Ports Corp of QLD.

Civmec's Work in hand is now around $60m according to their annoucement.

Mark

mark100
21-08-2006, 12:52 AM
These guys seem to be picking up plenty of contracts which bodes well for 2007FY.

They recently did a placement at 1.50 which has put a lid on the price a bit however they used some of these funds for what seems like a very good value acquisition (see recent presentation). They also have around $7m left over for future acquisitions.

On my estimates I think they could earn around 15.5cps in FY07 which has them sitting on a potential PE of around 11.5. This compares well with the better known companies in its sector, which tend to trade at around 15-20x.

Mark

SEC
22-08-2006, 12:40 AM
Hi Mark, I've been watching VMG since the IPO and like its profile but its liquidity is dreadful and as a result I have no real interest in buying a stake. I wonder if the likes of WOR are running their ruler over VMG, WOR are about to announce a record profit and have substantial cashflow to enable a few bolt-on acquisitions like VMG. Comsec has 07 eps estimates of 13.5cps, where have you got your 15.5cps estimate from?

SEC (WOR)

mark100
22-08-2006, 12:29 PM
Hi SEC,

VMG is forecast to report a NPAT of around $5.5m for FY06. The 'proforma' FY06 profit is $7m, which reflects a full year of contributions from the businesses acquired at the time of the IPO.

I have assumed 10% profit growth from existing operations for FY07. Given their main contacting division, Civmec, has almost double the work in hand now as it did a year ago I think 10% overall organic growth is a reasonabale assumption. This increases NPAT from existing operations to $7.7m in FY07.

They recently acquired a 75% stake in a contractor called Cape Crushing, a WA based resources contractor. In the recently released presentation, VMG forecast that Cape Crushing will earn $3.6m NPBT in FY07. This works out at a $1.89m NPAT contribution to VMG.

This gives a total NPAT for VMG of $9.6m in FY07. The recent placement raised $12m and increased fully diluted shares on issue to 62m. This gives EPS of 15.5c

Also, of the $12m raised in the placement, only $4.8m was used to acquire Cape Crushing, leaving $7m available for other acquisitions.

If they can acquire another privately owned consultant or contractor on an earnings multiple of say 5x, that gives them considerable scope beat my EPS estimate.

Also, I checked commsec's forecasts and they are forecasting 13.5c EPS for 2006 and 15.3c for 2007.

cheers
Mark

Bobbyvee
17-09-2006, 03:07 PM
The latest VMG report released last week revealed a 70% increase in revenue combined with 81% increase in NPAT. EPS over 15c exceeding expectations (13.5c). Fully franked dividend of 3.35% pa and expected to grow. This report has stimulated increased sale volumes which in a tightly held stock should result in price increases over the coming months.

With a market cap. over $100M the company should also come to the brokers' attention.



Cheers
Bobbyvee

Bobbyvee
25-09-2006, 09:29 AM
VMG continues growth by acquisition. IMO time will see this company re-rated by the market. Announcement late Friday:

Perth, 22 September 2006:
VDM Group Limited (ASX: VMG) today announced the acquisition of the Queensland-based civil and structural engineering consultancy practice Barlow Gregg & Associates (Barlow Gregg).
The consideration for the purchase is $1.435 million cash and 1.85 million VDM Group shares. The shares are not eligible to participate in VDM Group’s final dividend of 3 cents per share payable on 15 November 2006. The vendors have agreed that the shares will be subject to voluntary escrow for a period of 12 months.
For more than 25 years, Barlow Gregg has established itself as a major regional engineering consultancy practice operating from offices in Hervey Bay, Mooloolaba, Bundaberg and Cannonvale (Airlie Beach) and employing 40 engineering personnel. The five existing Barlow Gregg shareholders and other key personnel have signed executive employment contracts for a minimum two-year period.
Commenting on the acquisition, VDM Group CEO, John Farrell, said: “Barlow Gregg is a perfect fit to our existing Burchill VDM Gold Coast-based consultancy. The acquisition provides VDM Group with an expanded regional presence in Queensland.”
“The synergies are very good. Barlow Gregg is capable of providing significant referral revenue to Burchill VDM’s environmental arm Belleng. It is planned that Barlow Gregg’s office in Airlie Beach will merge with our existing office delivering operational savings with increased business coverage. Barlow Gregg’s workforce is youthful and dynamic”, he said.

Bobbyvee

Bobbyvee
25-09-2006, 06:42 PM
Today's volume of 963,000 was by far the highest single day trade since listing in February 06 (almost double the second highest day)- 3.4% SP increase. There is growing buyer strength and thin sellers.

mark100
25-09-2006, 06:51 PM
I'm not selling my shares. This one has further to run in my view

mark100
29-09-2006, 03:20 PM
FY07 guidance just released by VMG. They expect NPAT to be at least 80% higher than FY06. That indicates NPAT of at least $10.2m compared with my estimate in an earlier post of $9.6m.

Making such a bullish forecast at this stage of the year is a good indication that they may beat the 80% by a fair margin

Bobbyvee
29-09-2006, 05:47 PM
The 80% increase in net profit for FY07 is a forecast I believe they expect to exceed. It follows 80% increase in net profit for FY06. All of that and an 11% increase in SP today. Very nice!
I believe VMG may actually outperform that other engineering favorite of the moment, Austin Engineering (ANG).

Bobbyvee
24-10-2006, 12:37 PM
There appears to be growing market support for this stock. Now at $2.50 (they were $1.80 prior to 06 results release) and sell side has thinned dramatically. Engineering companies are not always exciting but are very sound businesses, and generally deliver steady growth and profit. It will not surprise me if VMG reach $4 range within 12 months.

Bobbyvee
30-08-2007, 01:38 PM
Well they are slow moving but surely these results will draw market attention. They are an ideal buy IMO in these times of market uncertainty.

Perth, 29 August 2007: VDM Group Limited (ASX: VMG) today reported a net profit after tax
for the year ended 30 June 2007 of $10.4 million, an 83% increase over the corresponding
period. This profit result was derived from a 190% increase in revenue to $232.2 million. EBITDA
grew to $25.6 million from the corresponding period of $8.6 million, representing an increase
of 198%.
The Directors have declared a fully franked dividend of 4 cents per share payable on
30 November 2007, bringing the full-year dividend to 8 cents per share. The dividend is
consistent with VDM Group’s dividend policy of paying out between 50–65% of the
Company’s after-tax profits as dividends.
Commenting on the result, VDM Group CEO, John Farrell, said: “We have delivered on the
earnings guidance which VDM Group has consistently provided to the market during the
2007 financial year. Achieving revenue and EBITDA growth in the 200% range illustrates the
successful rollout of our business plan as a public listed company.”
The 2007 financial year was the first full year that VDM Group was listed on ASX. During this
period total shareholder return of 58% was achieved. As well as shareholders receiving these
significant benefits, VDM Group’s profile and corporate status has been significantly
enhanced. The share placement in May 2007 attracted strong institutional support to VDM
Group’s 2008 expansion plan.

drworm
26-02-2008, 06:50 PM
Great results announced today.

Upgraded Full year forecast profit to exceed $27.5m, an increase of $3.5m.

With 120m shares this equates to eps of 23c.

At 1.94 gives PE of 8.5

I accumulated some a couple of weeks ago and have topped up again today after the result. Pro-rata P/E at $2 full diluted is only 7.5 plus 5% FF dividend.

mark100
26-02-2008, 10:19 PM
I sold out of VMG quite some time ago for around $2.50 because of poor cash flow. At the moment the stock is the cheapest it has ever been on a PE basis but I note that cash flow is poor yet again. I don't remember one result since this stock has been listed where it generated loads of operating cash flow.

mark100
26-02-2008, 11:02 PM
Yes I know that is true to some extent. But look what the price of growth has done to some companies lately with poor cash flow.

While there is a lot of money tied up in contracts they need to be able to collect it. Not saying they won't, its just that I'm wary of contruction companies with poor cash flows and that is possibly why the market is discounting VMG at present

mark100
05-05-2009, 12:05 PM
Keep an eye on the cash flow with this mob. Skinny margins and poor cash flow is a major reason why they went from $3 to 20c. Possibly a bargain at 30c but I didn't even think they did a good job of running the company in a boom so not sure how they will handle the quiet periods

mark100
26-07-2010, 01:35 PM
Last held these back in Nov 07. My concern at the time was cash flow which turned out to be well founded.

I see Hunter Hall have recently become a substantial holder and on current forecasts look to be trading at a PE of around 5. Management have also been cleaned out. I've taken a position based on their low valuation and the overall market seems to be looking up a bit. But watch the cash flow in the upcoming report....

OldRider
26-07-2010, 02:19 PM
mark100.
My views concur with yours, and my actions similar. From my statistics
Last year (2009) produced a significant loss, though on increased revenues
capex was negative,( ie asset sales greater than asset purchases),
and the first year in my records to show positive free cashflow.
Will watch this years accounts to see if trends are maintained.

mark100
27-08-2010, 11:18 AM
Nice report from VMG today. NPAT above forecast at $16.8m, fully diluted EPS 8.55c. PE at 40c is 4.7x. Dividends recommenced. Debt to Equity down to around 12%.

But the best part of the result in my view was operating cash flow at $31.8m. Also work in hand is currently $300m. This time last year its was $270m. The current result was also impacted by a $2.5m impairment so it looks like they have a good chance of at least matching this result next year, but hopefully exceeding it.

Corporate
27-08-2010, 11:41 AM
Nice report from VMG today. NPAT above forecast at $16.8m, fully diluted EPS 8.55c. PE at 40c is 4.7x. Dividends recommenced. Debt to Equity down to around 12%.

But the best part of the result in my view was operating cash flow at $31.8m. Also work in hand is currently $300m. This time last year its was $270m. The current result was also impacted by a $2.5m impairment so it looks like they have a good chance of at least matching this result next year, but hopefully exceeding it.


Do you own Mark? I am thinking about buying a load. Amazingly low PE. Do you have any idea why?

mark100
27-08-2010, 12:33 PM
Yes I hold a few Corporate at 39c avg. The PE is low because of a near death experience in the GFC. Too much debt, they had big writedowns etc. It takes a while for confidence to return. They have now raised equity and cut the debt back, cleaned up the structure a bit and hopefully can regain some confidence in the market. The resumption of dividends is a plus. But these things take time. I'm sure there are a lot of stale bulls holding who are keen to dump into any rise

Corporate
01-09-2010, 03:25 PM
This stock it to hard not to own. On a current PE of <5. Should be at least 8.

The bit I like is that the second half NPAT was approximately $11m. Compared to $5m in the first.

I just bought $10k worth

mark100
01-09-2010, 03:48 PM
Corporate, I think its getting primed for a run. Good volume the past 4 days, on balance volume has moved up sharply and it has moved above the 100dma. So the fundamentals and chart are all looking good. I added to my position today

Corporate
01-09-2010, 03:53 PM
Corporate, I think its getting primed for a run. Good volume the past 4 days, on balance volume has moved up sharply and it has moved above the 100dma. So the fundamentals and chart are all looking good. I added to my position today

Yeah I saw the OBV too and the volume has been huge. I'm thinking about adding a few more.

Corporate
02-09-2010, 06:47 AM
Bugger I had to head to a meeting and didn't set another order before I left. This could be up quite strongly today.

Corporate
06-09-2010, 01:41 PM
VMG up again strongly today. Currently 49c. Still a long way to run to get to a PE close to FGE

Corporate
06-09-2010, 03:35 PM
now 51c and 10% for the day

mark100
06-09-2010, 04:38 PM
I sold on open at 48. I thought it was looking a little overbought and the market is due a pullback. Or so I thought anyway. Still a very cheap share and I see a medium term target of 60c

soulman
06-09-2010, 05:35 PM
Corporate, I think its getting primed for a run. Good volume the past 4 days, on balance volume has moved up sharply and it has moved above the 100dma. So the fundamentals and chart are all looking good. I added to my position today

Well done people. On the day of the result, I was buying this baby in circa 40 but I didn't like the order book after having a second look. The order book turns me away and I let it slip by me.

The thing about this market right now is to extract the max profits. It seems once again, I always sold too quickly.

Mark, the lack of volume in SND is dissapointing. That 6000 shares that went through today at 50 was mine. Still got a little bit left but the volume just not there. We should enjoy the 3 cents divy.

Corporate
06-09-2010, 05:43 PM
Good to take profits when they are available especially in this market. I just see VMG as still to cheap and agree it could easily push through to 60c. The commencement of dividends in a good kicker and the second half of the year was a lot stronger than the first.

20% up in less than 2 weeks is a great result for me so far.

Corporate
06-09-2010, 06:42 PM
also, still on a PE of <6.

Compare this to FGE who are at 10 and you will see the value.

soulman
06-09-2010, 08:13 PM
also, still on a PE of <6.

Compare this to FGE who are at 10 and you will see the value.

Don't remind me of FGE, I sold for 348 just what seems like days ago. FGE going ex-div of 5 cents today and going up 14. A bloody good day by anyone's language.

Corporate
06-09-2010, 08:54 PM
Don't remind me of FGE, I sold for 348 just what seems like days ago. FGE going ex-div of 5 cents today and going up 14. A bloody good day by anyone's language.

Well you did better than me. I sold at $3 flat!

mark100
07-09-2010, 11:49 AM
soulman, yes the order book seemed a bit light on but then again they have a lot of tendering opportunities that could quickly fix that. However a revised mining tax due to a Labor/Green govt could change that. Either way VMG is still cheap if they can equal FY10 profit again this year. I still hold some GCS which I bought post results. They pay a healthy dividend and have enough work in hand for them to have already forecast a good profit for FY11. Its trading at around 6.5x FY11. SND is like watching paint dry, but its cheap. I may sell a few in the high 40s now I've collected the 3c FF div. I was hoping for a capital return with the results but no such luck

drworm
14-09-2010, 04:51 PM
Rio to spend $860m on Argyle upgrade: http://www.theage.com.au/business/rio-to-spend-860m-on-argyle-upgrade-20100914-15a40.html

This bodes well for VDM. Back in 2008, VDM Group had about $36m worth for work at the diamond mine. Not sure how far they got through it, but it was cut short: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/shutdowns-axe-5000-mine-jobs/story-e6frg90f-1111118370104

You'd expect that they'd be in the box seat to win some work back...

Corporate
21-09-2010, 07:15 AM
VMG pushed back into the 50c range yesterday. A positive day on the Dow may see it go higher still. Still amazing value here.

mark100
07-10-2010, 11:17 AM
VMG got sold off sharply after going ex div for no obvious reason. Hunter Hall announced they have increased their stake in VMG. I've bought a few back

buns
08-10-2010, 12:07 PM
this one interests me - It's next on the list to start reading up on.

In the meantime, do any holders have any idea what this huge order is sitting at 44c? No way this is going to get chipped away at.

mark100
08-10-2010, 12:35 PM
this one interests me - It's next on the list to start reading up on.

In the meantime, do any holders have any idea what this huge order is sitting at 44c? No way this is going to get chipped away at.

It is quite odd. If you genuinely have such a large quantity to sell in a small cap you just offload in dribs and drabs. I hate it when everyone blames a poor trade on 'manipulation' but in this case it does seem a bit like that

Lizard
11-10-2010, 09:26 AM
Well done people. On the day of the result, I was buying this baby in circa 40 but I didn't like the order book after having a second look. The order book turns me away ...


Hi Soulman. I just had a bit of a look at VMG and the order book put me off a bit too. Last year, same time, was about $10m higher ($270m) but built quickly over the next 3 or 4 months, largely from a couple of big contracts. Initially they were predicting around $400m revenue but ended up doing much better at $521m. Maybe they can repeat this, or maybe they just got lucky on scoring a couple of good contracts last year? $500m of tenders in pipeline would probably typically give you about $150 - $180m of business?

Overall, looks cheap still and good turnaround, but very hard to predict at this point and the odds of a step-up in profit this year seem on the low side for my liking.

buns
13-10-2010, 11:44 AM
Large seller has moved right back to 50c - lets me in at 45c, and it looks like a whole lot of others as it's raced up 7%.. Will the capper move back again?

mark100
13-10-2010, 11:54 AM
Who knows! I offloaded a third of what I bought at 43.5 at 46.5 this morning. Will hold the rest for a while and see what it does.

Maybe the 'capper' moved because of a contract win, or maybe their order had served its purpose in the market.

Even if these guys don't match last years revenue they are still cheap but to push past 50c shorth term I think we'll need to hear of some more contract wins

mark100
27-10-2010, 11:56 AM
Through 50c with conviction this morning and I'm out for now. I would like to see an update on WIH at the AGM although maybe today's move is giving prior confirmation that its all good

Corporate
27-10-2010, 01:54 PM
I'm still holding. VMG is still cheap :-)

lissica
16-11-2010, 01:30 AM
Hi Soulman. I just had a bit of a look at VMG and the order book put me off a bit too. Last year, same time, was about $10m higher ($270m) but built quickly over the next 3 or 4 months, largely from a couple of big contracts. Initially they were predicting around $400m revenue but ended up doing much better at $521m. Maybe they can repeat this, or maybe they just got lucky on scoring a couple of good contracts last year? $500m of tenders in pipeline would probably typically give you about $150 - $180m of business?



Big drop (5c) today for exactly that reason.

Heres hoping for some new contracts in the pipeline.

Lizard
19-03-2012, 01:38 PM
After looking at NOD this weekend, I got stuck into trying to find possible turnaround stocks on a low price/sales. This one came up and wonder if it is finally time to buy in? Not really a fan of large-contract type stocks, but there is plenty of room for improvement here at 7.1cps - even allowing for the chunk of 5cps exercise options (VMGO - expire 30 Nov 2013), I would think 12-16cps of potential value here based on sales and "typical" margins.

"Refreshed" management and Board over the past 12-18 months, although the suspension and capital raising last year either qualifies as an emergency or a debacle, given the time and changes during the process.

Any thoughts?

lissica
20-03-2012, 12:11 AM
I rode this all the way down. Maybe I'll ride it all the way back up.

But then I bought some more (VMG at 4.5c and VMGO at 3c). So that's a good indicator it's in for another drop ^_^

That aside- their debt problems seem to be behind them, only need a few big contracts now. The cap raising was ridiculous and overdone. Anyone who didn't get in were diluted into irrelevance.

Lizard
20-03-2012, 06:06 PM
Well the VMGO I bought yesterday did okay today, with heads closing up 7% and options up 22%, although depth is a bit patchy still.

Fingers crossed....

Toulouse - Luzern
21-03-2012, 09:09 AM
Hi Liz,
That's an impressive two day outcome for a potential turn around stock from the low.
Prior issues appear to have been recognised and addressed.

Perth, 29 February 2012: VDM Group Ltd (ASX:VMG; VDM or the Company) has reported a Net Loss
After Tax of $46.9 million for the six months ended 31 December 2011. The result was largely impacted
by $35.3 million in non-operating charges.

drillfix
21-03-2012, 12:04 PM
Can somebody explain to me why is it that why if a company makes a 6 month net lost of 46.9 Million the shareprice then goes up?

Seems quite Weird.

upside_umop
21-03-2012, 12:17 PM
The same reason that if a company makes a profit, the shareprice doesn't always go up.

It's all about expectations and what is priced in before price sensitive releases.

drillfix
21-03-2012, 12:31 PM
Thanks UU, makes sense!

I guess if you had been following that then it would make sense, yet from just stepping in from the sidelines to check it out it can seem a bit perplex.

Cheers~!!

soulman
21-03-2012, 01:04 PM
Drill, they got an asset sale announcement coming up right now probably for $46 mil that would wipe off all debt and have VMG in net cash position.

I research them over the weekend as well when Liz mentioned it. Didn't pull the plug on Mon when they were 7 cents.

Lizard
21-03-2012, 01:11 PM
Can somebody explain to me why is it that why if a company makes a 6 month net lost of 46.9 Million the shareprice then goes up?

Seems quite Weird.

This is a potential recovery stock (which is my "search of the week" theme). Recovery stocks are generally pretty ugly looking, but results can be spectacular in the cases where a turnaround actually works. I know some people insist that turnarounds rarely turn, but I seem to have reasonable success with them, provided I am fussy enough.

Three core things I look for in a turnaround are:
1. Significant change in management in the past 2 years.
2. Debt levels restored to manageable levels
3. Management firmly optimistic on current 6 month period (usually have a big book-clearing session in prior result)

Ideally, a turnaround has lots of revenue, but very low/no margins in prior period. When margins are returned to something more typical (try NPAT at 5% of revenue as a starting point if you want to make it easy), the stock can turn hard. I look for stocks where typical margins would suggest the share price is below 50% of fair value, on the basis that margins are restored over 3 years.

drillfix
21-03-2012, 01:16 PM
Drill, they got an asset sale announcement coming up right now probably for $46 mil that would wipe off all debt and have VMG in net cash position.

I research them over the weekend as well when Liz mentioned it. Didn't pull the plug on Mon when they were 7 cents.


Any approx time when that ann will be due or expected?

add/also

Liz, great post with a stack of Fundamental knowledge.

Thanks~!

soulman
21-03-2012, 01:54 PM
They say mid march in the presentation. So any minute now. That's the settlement date. The asset sale was announced 23/12/2011.

drillfix
21-03-2012, 02:39 PM
They say mid march in the presentation. So any minute now. That's the settlement date. The asset sale was announced 23/12/2011.

Any minute, as in the next hour type of thing?

soulman
21-03-2012, 03:20 PM
Probably not Drill as in another announcement, the management said the finalisation is before the end of Q3 2012, so end of Mar.

Docu's has been leaked I supposed.

h2so4
21-03-2012, 03:22 PM
I think it's worth a bet.

https://www.macquarie.com.au/mgl/au/personal/news-and-insights/article-detail/366356/

drillfix
21-03-2012, 03:24 PM
Ahh, I see!

Though this now seems to be the biggest volume VMG and the options have ever experienced, so no doubt surely news cant be too far away. (highest volume prev was 29.x Million, now just under 35 Million with an 90 minutes to go).


Profit takers showing their hands though~!

OldRider
21-03-2012, 04:03 PM
Company update posted today:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=ASX&S=VMG&N=583032

mostly expectations, but market seems to like with shareprice climbing a little further,

drillfix
21-03-2012, 04:06 PM
I think it's worth a bet.

https://www.macquarie.com.au/mgl/au/personal/news-and-insights/article-detail/366356/

Hi H2 and thanks for that :)

Wish I took a bit of notice earlier in the piece, however as we know there is still news to come so lots more room to move hopefully.

I have taken a small position over 8c so with today's volume which is now over 40M this sure is what I call a volume spike~!

soulman
22-03-2012, 06:20 PM
Today's volume is not bad either, together with the 5% gain.

A major engineering group grabbing a stake is also possible since there will be a re-rating when VMG is debt free and making a profits onwards from here.

I already got 2 different lots and might grab another tomorrow.

drillfix
22-03-2012, 06:29 PM
I dumped mine out today souly as although it was a strong finish, there didn't seem to be much continuity from yesterday moving upward.

May take another position tomorrow but will sit it on the sidelines watching closely to gauge direction.

soulman
22-03-2012, 07:16 PM
Fair enough Drill. It has run hard but IMO not hard enough. I see further value in VMG.

As always, there is always time to get back in at lower or higher prices.

h2so4
23-03-2012, 01:32 PM
Fair enough Drill. It has run hard but IMO not hard enough. I see further value in VMG.

As always, there is always time to get back in at lower or higher prices.

There seems to be more in this than just fundies bottom ticking it.

Just an observation.

drillfix
23-03-2012, 01:57 PM
As always, there is always time to get back in at lower or higher prices.


This never took long but having thought about it again, I am no in the Options and will add on news or spikes.

H2, not as much volume today but good to see funds taking part in the ready for what up coming news.

drillfix
26-03-2012, 05:04 PM
Looks like the sp is starting to become unglued and starting to fall a part.

News due is it this week? As this is the end of that quarter is it not?

soulman
26-03-2012, 08:03 PM
Such is life ain't it. A very, very small piece were taken from my sell order this morning at 8.4 cents and the reverse happen during closing time.

Definitely, MacBank looking to take their multi-million profits from their underwriting stake at their entitlement issue of 5 cents. Hence the sell down. Some people need to drive Ferraris just to get their status out there.

drillfix
27-03-2012, 05:11 PM
Well is anybody else here still holding or has everybody taken profits and bailed regardless of the upcoming Ann to announce the money in the bank etc etc?

h2so4
27-03-2012, 06:38 PM
Me, I'm holding. Maybe a bit ambitious of me Drill but I still think this is one share that is at the bottom of it's next growth cycle.

drillfix
27-03-2012, 07:03 PM
Me, I'm holding. Maybe a bit ambitious of me Drill but I still think this is one share that is at the bottom of it's next growth cycle.

Good to see some conviction there H2 :)

And doubt Liz, TU, UU and others will also be thinking along the exact same lines.

Perhaps its just me with the Traders Jitters whereby not used to holding stock for long.

Lizard
27-03-2012, 08:37 PM
Hi Drillfix, I hope you aren't looking for an opinion from me. We are chalk and cheese when it comes to styles!

Usual rules apply - trade your plan and ignore the noise. :)

drillfix
27-03-2012, 09:30 PM
Hi Drillfix, I hope you aren't looking for an opinion from me. We are chalk and cheese when it comes to styles!


Hi Liz,

Sorry for the misunderstanding, no not about Styles, but rather what H2 had mentioned in his previous post part being:


this is one share that is at the bottom of it's next growth cycle

drillfix
30-03-2012, 03:35 PM
Good to see an increase in stake holder by Paradice Investment Management (they should learn to spell also :P)

I now wonder if news about the debt wipe will turn up in a separate ann or inside a Quarterly?

In the meantime its good to see support for VMG holding up, as its like somebody is waiting and prepared to wait for something.

drillfix
03-04-2012, 04:17 PM
Souly,

With regards to news or ann's, when you say any minute, are you sure you dont mean month or year?

This is taking a long time to get announced.

Does anybody have any idea of when this will come to tell or update the market?

soulman
03-04-2012, 04:26 PM
Should come out before MAR 31st. So management should really inform the market about the delay. Nevertheless Drill, did 2 BUY 8.1, sell 8.3 the last 24 hours, so happy with that. Small profits but still good as that was my intent anyway.

drillfix
03-04-2012, 04:48 PM
Should come out before MAR 31st. So management should really inform the market about the delay. Nevertheless Drill, did 2 BUY 8.1, sell 8.3 the last 24 hours, so happy with that. Small profits but still good as that was my intent anyway.

Well good stuff there souly, thats for sure.

However what happens if it shoots off with news, as in do you have a holding parcel at all?

What about some options also, any of those?

drillfix
13-04-2012, 12:16 PM
Looks like a somebody wants to take a stake in these VMGO options.

Support for VMG seems to be holding in the high 7's or should I say, sellers don't seem to want to sell much lower than 8c at present.

Surely news cannot be far off, perhaps this year? :P

drillfix
20-04-2012, 11:04 AM
I can see a bunch of eager people here with rapid replies :P


Folks is this the news everybody has been waiting for supposedly?

VDM completes sale of Cape Crushing

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01289106

Market doesn't seem to even notice or care by the looks of things!

Whats next on the horizon for this?


ps: Would have thought the Ann would have been at least marked Market Sensitive!

h2so4
20-04-2012, 11:55 AM
Hi Drilly

Ha! Always eager.

This is just a bouncing off place Drilly.

I see VMG at the bottom of a new growth cycle.

The question now is, will VDM capture those new contracts it talks about? If this is the case and judging by it's past performance I see no reason why it wouldn't, then I see increased earnings and a current share price that the market has hopefully underpriced.

drillfix
20-04-2012, 12:07 PM
Thanks for sounding off H2, its always good to hear the views of others.

Prior to the Ann today, was a little concerned with the previous new Substantial Holder statement issued on the 19 April, which kinda shows there being 60 Million Shares being borrowed from Merrill Lynch to what appears to be Bank of America.

Now, why exactly would they do that? As in allow them to borrow them, with all the voting rights and the ability to return them any time or be recalled any time.

To me that half points to some potential agenda, and it also is used for not only voting, but either to drive a price up, or down.

I am hoping its not so they can inversely Short the stock although, as they have borrowed them, sell off the real stock so they can accumulate cheaper of which by then they can pay them back and have a free position. I certainly hope not but you never know with these fast shuffling card dealers!


Any thoughts on that?

h2so4
20-04-2012, 01:05 PM
I did notice that.

One thing is certain, a small company sp can be easily manipulated by a big player so I guess we can expect some volatility. Might work for us or against us Drill.

Seems odd they would pick an underpriced company if they intend to short it.

I'm still comfy.

h2so4
03-05-2012, 12:41 PM
I did notice that.

One thing is certain, a small company sp can be easily manipulated by a big player so I guess we can expect some volatility. Might work for us or against us Drill.

Seems odd they would pick an underpriced company if they intend to short it.

I'm still comfy.

Comfy that is until I realised I had made a glaring mistake on my analysis.

Bugger

drillfix
03-05-2012, 04:30 PM
Comfy that is until I realised I had made a glaring mistake on my analysis.

Bugger

What kind of mistake H2?

Not really concerned about things with VMG now as I got stopped out, which is better than not being out in these markets at present.

To me, if this was going to continue higher, it would have tried to climb past the previous high already however we now rather seeing previous lows being tested and tested again etc etc, Hence the stop.

Ahh well.

Currently in my DT acc, I am out of the market completely with a small holding in my long account that can take whatever roller coast ride they want, though should I need cash I will just ditch them too if need be.

Good luck with this one H2, and one day we can do a ST meeting on the Goldie next time your up, perhaps KW and HC can also make it as well (along with anybody else who lives in Aus), though souly would have a stack of flying to do :)

h2so4
03-05-2012, 05:12 PM
Lets say that on re analysis I was holding VMG and hoping for growth.

Yeh mate. I'm sure looking forward to those pizzas.

One day.:)

soulman
03-05-2012, 05:25 PM
What kind of mistake H2?

Not really concerned about things with VMG now as I got stopped out, which is better than not being out in these markets at present.

To me, if this was going to continue higher, it would have tried to climb past the previous high already however we now rather seeing previous lows being tested and tested again etc etc, Hence the stop.

Ahh well.

Currently in my DT acc, I am out of the market completely with a small holding in my long account that can take whatever roller coast ride they want, though should I need cash I will just ditch them too if need be.

Good luck with this one H2, and one day we can do a ST meeting on the Goldie next time your up, perhaps KW and HC can also make it as well (along with anybody else who lives in Aus), though souly would have a stack of flying to do :)

Conference in this forum is all we need Drill. I am out of VMG in the 8's and have not bought back in. Will leave this one as it is. The view on mining boom Mark 2 in WA could be overstated, even though RIO is looking for 4000 workers. WA is not as rosy as it seems. We have the highest bankruptcy rate on all other staes, except for QLD, our housing are dropping.

MND (the darling of mining contractor) drop plenty today. I wonder if there is a leak. MAH is also struglling so I expect VDM to be in the same boat.

I am in the graphite sector these days with the like of MGY, MOX and AXE.

Lizard
29-10-2012, 11:33 AM
Well turns out this was one "potential recovery stock" that I looked at back in March that miserably failed in its attempt to recover. Another downgrade/warning issued today and management are once again "disappointed". Share price has fallen by about 75% in the past 6 months - now at 2cps.

Thankfully VTG, API and a few of the others made up for this one, but it is good to have a reminder re the risk level around picking recoveries.

soulman
29-10-2012, 05:16 PM
Well turns out this was one "potential recovery stock" that I looked at back in March that miserably failed in its attempt to recover. Another downgrade/warning issued today and management are once again "disappointed". Share price has fallen by about 75% in the past 6 months - now at 2cps.

Thankfully VTG, API and a few of the others made up for this one, but it is good to have a reminder re the risk level around picking recoveries.

Not the sector to be in ATM or perhaps the next 2 years.

I am still waiting for the benchmark MND to update at their AGM.

Closing at 1.7 and no improvement in sight I reckon. Just like MAH.