RAK Rakon

[Toddy]

Any chance of Forbar or Jarden stuffing this up for shareholders by giving Rak some kind of Sky high valuation from their spreadsheets.

[sb9]

2 days post big news, no further update from the company, so typical. Why don’t they either name the bidder or advise on progress or they’ve asked them to bugger off.

[nztx]

170 pennies must surely be of interest to Robinsons to sail into the sunset ? ;)

Or will this be another STU it over and then RAK off just when serious money gets waved around

How good are the RAK Boardroom Squatters when it comes to inflating the balloon and keeping it aloft at a
respectable height ? ;)

Jan 2022 saw SP north of 200, then things continued deflating badly to a mere 61 pennies by end Nov 2023

[winner69]

Mike Daniel stirring the Board up ….written to them …seems he’d take the offer

He said “Lorraine, in my lifetime, I have seen too many offers withdrawn due to directors’ delays caused by the need to justify their existence.”

Rakon board urged to gauge major shareholder appetite to sell
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/rakon-board-urged-to-gauge-major-shareholder-appetite-to-sell

Maybe paywalled

[sb9]

It appears market believes this offer is gone buggers, back to below buck soon.

[nztx]

Fancy going by no news & Mike Daniel making loud noises still producing no muffled stirrings in response - it must be looking like the potential suitor has been told to RAK off and the Ultimate Sale opportunity has disappeared into thin air ;)

How many years of painting pretty glowing pictures & basically only going somewhere very slowly has RAK clocked up now ? ;)

Perhaps word of a potential suitor at 170 pennies has destroyed someone's dreams of letting the Empire slide into the gap and then capable of being picked up very cheaply by existing or other friendly interests ? ;)


Enough to properly stuff the turkey before time in some circles and curry thoughts of dividend spit outs going forward ? ;)

Fair is fair .. it must be annoying to be NZX listed with these sort of petty pestly suitors springing forward out of the woodwork offering more than pocket money, showing up the Board on what things are worth & where they could be going, when the Board & entrenched stakeholders thought they owned the outfit outright and the rest of the suckers along for the ride were just unwanted passengers that could be ditched at will at any sort of price to get rid of them ;)

[Mel]

Update from Rakon re indicative proposal - they have formed a committee to review :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423715

[Greekwatchdog]

Update from Rakon re indicative proposal - they have formed a committee to review :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423715


Sounds like the last Government. Coffee and cake anyone? Really the Robinsons don't strike me as a group who will flog this off unless they want out.

[winner69]

Update from Rakon re indicative proposal - they have formed a committee to review :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423715

……..and “promptly progressing a proper process”

[sb9]

Guess they had to put out a statement to pretend they’re doing something, but in reality not really, but like yeah nah.

Doubt anything concrete will eventuate this side of Xmas. Take a break and relook at it Feb/Mar.

[jonu]

Guess they had to put out a statement to pretend they’re doing something, but in reality not really, but like yeah nah.

Doubt anything concrete will eventuate this side of Xmas. Take a break and relook at it Feb/Mar.

I took the announcement as being quite positive, especially that some large holders had expressed support. Although the market took until today to respond. I reckon this thing could pop upwards big time over the holiday break with the usual lower volume.

Discl: Holding

[moimoi]

and that they have formed a committee to consider...

They could have dismissed the proposal out of hand as opportunistic and undervaluing the company.

Interesting that this is the exact reason given earlier in the year for the requested increase in Director's Fee's.

GLTA.

[Pricey]

Yes, nice spot regarding the increase in director fees (but in hindsight imagine coming cap in hand for something that *might* happen): "The proposed increase to theprovision for significant additional workand attendances reflects the level of feesthat directors believe may be required tocompensate directors if a significant event ortransaction occurs.

I wonder if one of the "significant shareholders" is Siward Crystal Technology. They would turn their $38m investment into $174m.

This is really when the independent directors should come into their own. Lorraine, Keith and Steve have some involvement with other NZX Listed Companies. Steve was on the Board of Methven when it got taken over and de-listed (for better or worse, seems like the made a hash of it: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brian-gaynor-another-nzx-listing-goes-down-the-gurgler/DPYTT6JVT7RRV5UJSEVURIY6EU/)

[nztx]

Yes, nice spot regarding the increase in director fees (but in hindsight imagine coming cap in hand for something that *might* happen): "The proposed increase to theprovision for significant additional workand attendances reflects the level of feesthat directors believe may be required tocompensate directors if a significant event ortransaction occurs.

I wonder if one of the "significant shareholders" is Siward Crystal Technology. They would turn their $38m investment into $174m.

This is really when the independent directors should come into their own. Lorraine, Keith and Steve have some involvement with other NZX Listed Companies. Steve was on the Board of Methven when it got taken over and de-listed (for better or worse, seems like the made a hash of it: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/brian-gaynor-another-nzx-listing-goes-down-the-gurgler/DPYTT6JVT7RRV5UJSEVURIY6EU/)


the problem with too many of the non aligned larger blocks on the Register with different ideas is that might upend
the interests of the founder blocks - if the Board & Outfit continues to show signs of going back to sleep for more of
the same.

Siward looked like the largest stakeholder parcel when I last looked.. Mike Daniel's Warahi was up there too
among various Robinson's parcels

These Offers highlight potential value seen by other parties. The wake up call has been delivered and the Board is on notice going forwards.

[ronaldson]

RAK surely had value in a geo-political sense that wasn't reflected in the share price prior to this "offer" landing.

And the large facility in India is just ramping up, and sits alongside existing operations in France and the UK - this kind of base is not easily replicated by NZ entities active in any manufacturing industry and this particular industry has growth potential if you can remain on the leading edge. Anyway, to some extent the hard yards seem to have been run here.

RAK could easily be on the radar of more than one potential suitor despite profitability issues just now.

[moimoi]

absolutely...

Which, among many other reasons, would make it VERY surprising if exclusivity was granted @ $1.70.

[Mel]

absolutely...

Which, among many other reasons, would make it VERY surprising if exclusivity was granted @ $1.70.
The market was only valuing RAK at a third of the current bid, so I would be supportive if exclusivity was granted (ideally with a slight premium on $1.70), given the rollercoaster ride we've had with RAK and management's track record of not capitalising on the opportunities. (arguably).
DISCL: substantial holding

[sb9]

It’s the checkered history of management by Robinsons is what the real issue here. But for that this business is worth far more than bid price. Guess they can’t win them all with lot of pressure from not just retail holders but some big boys too.

[Dlownz]

Climbing slowly, still waiting for more news.
😊

[SPC]

An 'incomplete and highly conditional offer' doesn't sound like much of an offer at all if you're honest and rational about it.
Either they are willing to cough up $1.70 for the thing or they aren't. What's the problem here?.
Keep a life jacket handy I say.

[Dlownz]

Yes very true. But when the price is doing this action it's a possible slow and steady accumulater not wanting the price to ramp up too fast while they vaccum up as many shares as possible at the lowest price.
Wait and see but I see it at 1.35 by the end of the week if there is no news

[SPC]

Surely a great thing would attract clean straight forward offers?. Sounds like the offer is subject to conditions which could result in the offer price discounting rather than rising ?. I mean knock it out of the park performances haven't been a hallmark of this co. $1.70 more of a ceiling than a floor. No other offers have appeared as yet against what is clearly a less than convincing bid. Perhaps a clue there?

[errornz]

Probably been a bit of chat over Christmas between insiders and family and friends that’s causing the slow rise.

[errornz]

Quite a bit of depth. 480k buy and 170k sell.

[Dlownz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424952
Back from holiday.

[Sideshow Bob]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424952
Back from holiday.

The news is there is no news......:closed eyes:

[JSwan]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424952
Back from holiday.

That news post was so hard to find on the NZX website, wish we could filter out all those spam NTA announcements

[Wai Wai]

At least its still alive
Directors will be enjoying the benefit of the recently established slush fund

[moimoi]

Todays announcement could be construed as laying the groundwork for the eventual non presentation of the "proposal". IMO.

Thats twice now we've been told the independent committee is assessing whether it is in the best interests of shareholders as a whole.

No other parties have put their hat in the ring so far evidently. That would have to have been disclosed.

GLTA

[JSwan]

Todays announcement could be construed as laying the groundwork for the eventual non presentation of the "proposal". IMO.

Thats twice now we've been told the independent committee is assessing whether it is in the best interests of shareholders as a whole.

No other parties have put their hat in the ring so far evidently. That would have to have been disclosed.

GLTA

What do you mean by “non presentation of the proposal”?

[Mel]

The news is there is no news......:closed eyes:
It's in the best interests of the majority (count) of shareholders, given it was languishing at around the 60-70 cent mark before the current proposal (even if the $1.70 is the ceiling and recognising that there is a long way between the start and finish line of a NBIO).

[jonu]

RAK on a tear today. I'm surprised the market hasn't taken the prospective offer more seriously. Maybe it's starting to or perhaps things are progressing?

[ronaldson]

RAK on a tear today. I'm surprised the market hasn't taken the prospective offer more seriously. Maybe it's starting to or perhaps things are progressing?

Market is very soft now, with buy-side support lacking until $1.21.

I'm not sure what folk expect really. The 18 January announcement stated the obvious, namely " Rakon will continue to keep shareholders informed by market announcements in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations but, given the confidentiality agreements it has reached, will not otherwise be providing further comment."

The fact is Rakon has three manufacturing plants (the biggest is newly opened in India), six research and development centres, and sixteen customer support offices worldwide. This surely complicates any due diligence exercise, but the scale and reach of the enterprise is likely to be valuable to an acquiring party. And given the geo-political background as well I believe it is more likely than not that a positive outcome will follow. I even listed RAK as a pick in the 2024 Sharetrader Competition despite the price having already "popped" when the competition commenced.

It's essentially wait and see just now and any share price movements meantime should be ignored. Of course any significant movement absent an announcement could signal a leak of some sort but given the shares on issue are relatively few FMA/NZX ability to monitor trades should give pause for thought.

[moimoi]

9 weeks on from the tabling of the alleged "indicative offer".

NO meaningful update from the appointed sub committee!!

@ RAK..If there is no update then why don't you inform the non aligned shareholders who don't know as to why there isn't any update.

GLTA.

[nztx]

9 weeks on from the tabling of the alleged "indicative offer".

NO meaningful update from the appointed sub committee!!

@ RAK..If there is no update then why don't you inform the non aligned shareholders who don't know as to why there isn't any update.

GLTA.



Can't have that can we .. the SP might plummet like a stone back down to 70c levels ;)

[stoploss]

Can't have that can we .. the SP might plummet like a stone back down to 70c levels ;)
These guys been about as bad as FBU , they should take the hint ….

[ronaldson]

Leanne Lazarus, CEO Heartland Bank, will be a panel member at the Auckland Branch NZSA meeting tomorrow evening and presenting on the Depositor Compensation Scheme, strategy and interest rates.

A current perspective from a smaller market player straddling both sides of the Tasman should be interesting, and the Q and A session should add to the mix.

[DownTownJr]

I see some Rocketlab holders speculating that they could be the ones who have made a offer and looking to purchase RAK, hopefully we hear something soon.

[kiora]

What I could find

https://www.reddit.com/r/RKLB/comments/1ag0gsc/is_rklb_set_to_purchase_rakon/
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/beam-me-up-scotty-rakon-plans-to-focus-on-the-space-market

[SPC]

I expect that after a long period of radio silence and internal wranglings and knashing of teeth that the special working group will eventually announce that the proposed offer is 'not in the best interests of shareholders at this time'...
But 'which' shareholders.. ? 😉

[nztx]

I expect that after a long period of radio silence and internal wranglings and knashing of teeth that the special working group will eventually announce that the proposed offer is 'not in the best interests of shareholders at this time'...
But 'which' shareholders.. ? ��


meanwhile during that period of extensive teethgrinding & chair scraping at RAK Central .. the said SP will likely have drifted back to 70c or lower :)

most of the bunnies watching except for the deaf, sleeping or exceptionally brave will then have been seen to have lost interest & jumped over the fence + run on sensing the excruciating processes coming out of RAK Central ..

no sense in getting pumped up and then waiting around only to get dumped on - is there ? ;)

the smarter bunnies might be more interested in chasing expensive pearls elsewhere :)

[ronaldson]

And just like that the buy-side volume is gone today. I wonder if word is out?

[winner69]

And just like that the buy-side volume is gone today. I wonder if word is out?


Deal still on?

[Sideshow Bob]

Deal still on?

Now almost March - doubt it.

I'm sure RAK would have scared them off a long time ago.....

[nztx]

Now almost March - doubt it.

I'm sure RAK would have scared them off a long time ago.....



Probably couldn't be bothered being put on a long wait, then get told to RAK off ;)

Meanwhile the SP continues to suffer the inevitable fluttering down to ever lower levels ;)

[moimoi]

Well according to the company's own announcement of 11 December 2023 some shareholders may have been aware of the existence of the "proposal" prior which forced its appearance to be announced.

It would be unsurprising therefore if those same folk are aware of the "proposal" being a no go.

The buy side depth certainly markedly disappeared today.

Perhaps a team bonding weekend strategy retreat @ Hakone Inaba Sanso on the saki led to an impulse emailed "offer".

Possibly now being slow walked back by not responding to the appointed sub committee to save face.

Who knows! The company certainly seems in no mind to provide any worthwhile update to all of its shareholders as to status or even potential timing of an update as to the status of the "proposal".

Worringly for the forthcoming FY2024 results the CE of Nokia (a longstanding RAK customer) last night highlighting @ the mobile world congress that 5G investment by European Mobile telco's is still near nil. (Telecommunications being by far RAK's largest segment)

He stated the 33 odd Euro mobile operators have an average 4m customers each as compared to the US carriers who average 90m each and as such, along with strict pricing regulations, don't have sufficient profitable margins to invest in network renewal despite the growing data loads on networks.

GLTA

[nztx]

Well according to the company's own announcement of 11 December 2023 some shareholders may have been aware of the existence of the "proposal" prior which forced its appearance to be announced.

It would be unsurprising therefore if those same folk are aware of the "proposal" being a no go.

The buy side depth certainly markedly disappeared today.

Perhaps a team bonding weekend strategy retreat @ Hakone Inaba Sanso on the saki led to an impulse emailed "offer".

Possibly now being slow walked back by not responding to the appointed sub committee to save face.

Who knows! The company certainly seems in no mind to provide any worthwhile update to all of its shareholders as to status or even potential timing of an update as to the status of the "proposal".

Worringly for the forthcoming FY2024 results the CE of Nokia (a longstanding RAK customer) last night highlighting @ the mobile world congress that 5G investment by European Mobile telco's is still near nil. (Telecommunications being by far RAK's largest segment)

He stated the 33 odd Euro mobile operators have an average 4m customers each as compared to the US carriers who average 90m each and as such, along with strict pricing regulations, don't have sufficient profitable margins to invest in network renewal despite the growing data loads on networks.

GLTA


So the next announcement could well be underwhelming .. and they sent a potential suitor with worthwhile readies in hand potentially down the road as well ? ;)

[Mel]

And without any reason, the price is back up again, on reasonable vols......

[Muse]

And without any reason, the price is back up again, on reasonable vols......

Its emerged via Street Talk that Skyworks Solutions out of California is the bidder

[sb9]

Here’s the headline in AFR Streettalk, should be pocket change if they’re serious. No wonder RAK board would ask more…

***
Choice bro! Rakon board sits on offer from $25b wireless chip maker

The California-headquartered technology giant is part of the S&P 500 index and has close to 10,000 employees throughout Asia, Europe and North America.

***

[ronaldson]

Its emerged via Street Talk that Skyworks Solutions out of California is the bidder

Interesting that the AFR is on to it while the local media apparently don't have a clue.

Still, this is a reputable bidder with a swag behind it and RAK is certainly complementary to its business. I asked the "co-pilot" chat bot to comment and the response was food for thought.

I suspect the market move today will be further extended tomorrow as a broader appreciation that this is a credible party takes hold.

[nztx]

Interesting that the AFR is on to it while the local media apparently don't have a clue.

Still, this is a reputable bidder with a swag behind it and RAK is certainly complementary to its business. I asked the "co-pilot" chat bot to comment and the response was food for thought.

I suspect the market move today will be further extended tomorrow as a broader appreciation that this is a credible party takes hold.



Hey come on now - try to be kind .. Most of the Media will be out commiserating with the Boys & Girls from the Hub
over having to find new Day Jobs by middle of the year

[Mel]

Its emerged via Street Talk that Skyworks Solutions out of California is the bidder
Thanks for the update Muse!

[Mel]

Am I naive in thinking that the longer there is no updated announcement, the greater the likelihood of the NBIO progressing - or is it more likely the result of RAK management being notoriously slow and not nimble?

[SPC]

You can be in no doubt the family owners won't want to part with company. The salaries alone must be compelling.
No doubt they are under pressure from a long suffering major owner(s) to sell up, but they way the offer was 'unenthusiasticly' described in annoucements it is highly unlikely to result in anything whatsoever. Suggestions of offers north of $2 are just pie in the sky.
Listed for circa $1.60 in 2006. Selling for under $1.30 18 years later. Go figure..

[moimoi]

Difficult to know given the Companies long standing de minimus view of continuous disclosure and its obvious and long standing reluctantance to meaningfully communicate with all of its shareholders.

3 months in; it appears the committee has been unable to complete its assessment whether the NBIO "is in the best interests of shareholders as a whole."

Doesn't give a lot of confidence.

Meanwhile, outside the walls of the Mount Wellington cave, the adjacent industry of semi conductors roars ahead in one of the biggest booms of all time...

GLTA.

[ronaldson]

Lots of articles on the China/Taiwan situation. My view is that as a well-established chip maker with a geographic spread RAK has an intrinsic strategic value not assessed under ordinary valuation methodologies.

So I think a transaction is more likely than not.

[nztx]

Lots of articles on the China/Taiwan situation. My view is that as a well-established chip maker with a geographic spread RAK has an intrinsic strategic value not assessed under ordinary valuation methodologies.

So I think a transaction is more likely than not.



Hey come on now .. the market is also valuing the resident slow moving turtles in the pool as well :)

[ronaldson]

Hasn't taken long for Mr Market to start further discounting the likelihood of this "offer" developing.

I did note that the original announcement stated " The Board has received communications from significant shareholders indicating their support for the Board to progress the proposal." So it won't be all that easy to simply wave it off. I know the approach was merely indicative and non-binding, but the subsequent announcement indicated the role of the independent Directors was to see "if it can be developed into a transaction to be presented to shareholders", as you would expect.

We are now a further two months on from the latter announcement, and three months since the initial approach. So where do the odds lie here? Or does the current lack of market enthusiasm/support indicate some knowledge as to how it is?

[Rawz]

Good question Ronaldson. I dont know the answer. But what i do know is whenever there is a takeover offer on the table i sell into the market straight away if its close enough to the offer price. All it would take is for one offer to fall through and it would probably wipe out gains you would hope to get waiting for that extra 5% or 10% on a lifetime of takeovers.


Aka Eroad.. and maybe Rakon?

[Mel]

Good question Ronaldson. I dont know the answer. But what i do know is whenever there is a takeover offer on the table i sell into the market straight away if its close enough to the offer price. All it would take is for one offer to fall through and it would probably wipe out gains you would hope to get waiting for that extra 5% or 10% on a lifetime of takeovers.


Aka Eroad.. and maybe Rakon?
How long does it take!! I agree, if the NBIO lands in any way, shape or form, the time it's taken to reach an outcome is another reason to exit the management and the stock.

[moimoi]

There is a business desk article, published in the NZHerald March 18th, entitled "MHM Takeover hailed as win win for all" which references a "takeover offer @ $1.70 received when the MHM shares were trading @ $0.91."

The MHM Chairman, Trevour Burt, is reported as "offering" the following advice for companies weighing up a takeover.

""The key is to communicate if you get an offer, the market gets antsy with you and shareholders get antsy with you if you're not regularly updating them. The challenge with that is yes, you have obligations around disclosure, you've got obligations around confidentiality, et cetera. But thats the art in it.?

RAK appears unable or unwilling to provide any meaningful update 3 months after the alleged "offer".

GLTA

[nztx]

There is a business desk article, published in the NZHerald March 18th, entitled "MHM Takeover hailed as win win for all" which references a "takeover offer @ $1.70 received when the MHM shares were trading @ $0.91."

The MHM Chairman, Trevour Burt, is reported as "offering" the following advice for companies weighing up a takeover.

""The key is to communicate if you get an offer, the market gets antsy with you and shareholders get antsy with you if you're not regularly updating them. The challenge with that is yes, you have obligations around disclosure, you've got obligations around confidentiality, et cetera. But thats the art in it.?

RAK appears unable or unwilling to provide any meaningful update 3 months after the alleged "offer".

GLTA


Hey come on now .. when faced with being made unemployed if they jump one way ,, what's the quietest way
of not telling anyone, staying employed in a huddle, but thumbing noses quietly at a potential suitor ? ;)

It's called looking after shareholder interests .. probably just the ones around the large round table upstairs :)


And no news of progress reaches the table on the next level, so nothing to keep the great unwashed small
holders outside imformed about ..

[ronaldson]

And still we wait.

On-market pricing rallied briefly to $1.22 a few days ago, but now dying in a hole again.

[SPC]

Family won't want to sell probably.

[Wai Wai]

From 18/12 update

The board has also received communications from significant shareholders indicating their support for the board to progress the Proposal.

[nztx]

From 18/12 update

The board has also received communications from significant shareholders indicating their support for the board to progress the Proposal.


a mere three months & a couple of weeks holiday later .. and a big fat zero coming from within ;)

Hope their responses to operating the business in changing times is a tad better ;)


One way of telling all the competitors & possible suitors how good the corporate response & business is likely to be .. :)

[TJ1]

Incredible that no further information to market now. Talk about lack of faith in board and key stakeholders

[Greekwatchdog]

Incredible that no further information to market now. Talk about lack of faith in board and key stakeholders

No surprise there to me. Robinsons only care about themselves

[xafalcon]

No surprise there to me. Robinsons only care about themselves

Nailed it. This hasn't changed in the 15 years I have watched Rakon. robinson interests come first, second, third, forth and so on, right trough to ninety ninth. Shareholdrrs are seen as nothing more than enablers of this philosophy

[ronaldson]

I would have thought a decision to reject a proposal was an easier exercise and therefore more likely to be prompt/quicker, whereas to firm up an actual offer underpinned by appropriate due diligence would be much more complicated/take an extended timeframe.

So is this worth a gamble at current pricing ($1.18/lower) given the upside would seem significant? And where will the market price go if negotiations are signalled to be discontinued, which is the downside risk?

Anybody feeling brave?

[SPC]

If any global chip player thought RAK was worth anywhere near the touted 'incomplete and subject to xyz' offer of $1.70 they would have rushed in now with a concrete counter. They haven't....

[ronaldson]

If any global chip player thought RAK was worth anywhere near the touted 'incomplete and subject to xyz' offer of $1.70 they would have rushed in now with a concrete counter. They haven't....

I thought I read somewhere that the US Government is currently massively subsidising the onshoring to USA of Taiwanese chip manufacturing plants, because of the current strategic risks to that jurisdiction. Perhaps that is what is skewing the scrum for RAK?

[Joshuatree]

Not when it comes to the black hole RobbinGson's! I'm so looking forward to some value accretive ,event,takeover etc happening and redeploying my capital elsewhere.Endless Patience required to releasing that value,holding for now,but I'm not holding my breath

[ronaldson]

I would have thought a decision to reject a proposal was an easier exercise and therefore more likely to be prompt/quicker, whereas to firm up an actual offer underpinned by appropriate due diligence would be much more complicated/take an extended timeframe.

So is this worth a gamble at current pricing ($1.18/lower) given the upside would seem significant? And where will the market price go if negotiations are signalled to be discontinued, which is the downside risk?

Anybody feeling brave?

OK, I confess. Since posting this I have added another 5k at $1.15 just in case. Not life threatening, and an outcome must be getting closer.

[ronaldson]

And still we wait! But I am salivating now at where I will be in the 2024 sharetrader competition if this has a positive outcome!

[Pricey]

It must be alive in some form or another. If it was off the table, then they'd have to disclose that to the market to comply with their continuous disclosure obligations. I can't see how they would not, especially given they have already announced it.

[ronaldson]

It must be alive in some form or another. If it was off the table, then they'd have to disclose that to the market to comply with their continuous disclosure obligations. I can't see how they would not, especially given they have already announced it.

True.

No real sign from market price action and depth that any info from inside is trickling out either despite the extended timeframe. Maybe that circumstance leans more toward a downside outcome?

[Pricey]

I think I will email them. Is it also something that the NZSA could help out with? They often advocate for shareholders and this is starting to feel like something we need more traction with ... alternatively, if others send in requests surely they will get the message.

[moimoi]

Doubt you’ll get a meaningful answer Pricey but let us know how you get on.

Market pricing, both currently and from the outset of the announcement of an NBIO, and the lack of any update 4 months in, make it difficult to allay the feeling that a change of control transaction @ $1.70 just ain’t happening.

GLTA.

[Greekwatchdog]

This is For Bars update this morning...

We adjust our Rakon (RAK) forecasts to account for prolonged market weakness in its key Telecommunications segment (~55% of FY24E revenue) following negative updates from key global telco players. Nokia (NOK) and Ericsson (ERIC) reported 1Q24 numbers in the last week, with both experiencing notable revenue declines. NOK reported a significant fall in sales, led by a deep contraction in its network infrastructure and mobile networks divisions. Similarly, ERIC experienced a downturn in sales, calling out a slowdown in 5G network deployment in its critical North American market as a key driver. While our FY24 estimates already align with the lower end of RAK's guidance, we reduce our FY25/FY26 estimates as we push out a recovery in Telecommunications. Our blended spot valuation falls -2cps to NZ$0.98, and we await news regarding the potential NZ$1.70 takeover offer.

What's changed?
Earnings: Our underlying EBITDA estimates fall -5% in FY25 and FY26, while NPAT falls -9% and -6% respectively.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation falls -2% to NZ$0.98, with weakness in peer comparables also driving the reduction.
Nokia — 1Q24
NOK 1Q24 showcased a challenging market environment, with net sales falling -20%. Its network infrastructure segment saw revenues drop -26%, while mobile network revenue was down -39%. NOK noted that it had seen improved order intake, providing confidence in a stronger 2H24 that should allow it to achieve its full-year operating profit guidance.

Ericsson — 1Q24 sales remaining weak but the company calls out that inventory levels have stabilised
ERIC reported a -15% year-over-year decline in 1Q24 net sales, dropping from SEK$5.7bn to SEK$4.8bn. The Networks segment saw a sales decrease of -21%. Reflecting lower 5G customer infrastructure investment, sales declined by -17% year-over-year in ERIC's primary global North American market. The company noted that customer inventory levels have now stabilised, and it expected a recovery in the second half of 2024 following recent contract wins. Despite market challenges and cautious customer investment, ERIC anticipates sales stabilisation in the latter half of 2024, supported by a strong pipeline and recent contract wins in North America.

Earnings preview — RAK FY24 result due 29 May 2024, we revise our FY25 and FY26 estimates
RAK is due to report its FY24 result on 29 May 2024. Management has guided to underlying EBITDA in the range of NZ$13m to NZ$19m. Our FY24 estimates have NZ$141.8m in sales (down -21%), underlying EBITDA at the lower end of guidance at NZ$13.9m (down -67%) and reported NPAT of NZ$4.4m (down -81%). We anticipate RAK will update investors about the takeover offer, first announced on 11 December 2023. We cut our FY25 and FY26 revenue estimates by -2% and -3%, respectively, and our underlying EBITDA forecasts by -5% in both years, effectively pushing out the cyclical recovery by ~three months.

[moimoi]

April 24 (Reuters) - Anglo American PLC AAL.L :

ANGLO AMERICAN :CONFIRMS THAT IT IS HAS RECEIVED AN UNSOLICITED, NON-BINDING AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL COMBINATION PROPOSAL FROM BHP GROUP LIMITED
ANGLO AMERICAN : THE BOARD IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THIS PROPOSAL WITH ITS ADVISERS.
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL COMPRISES AN ALL-SHARE OFFER FOR ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL WOULD BE PRECEDED BY SEPARATE DEMERGERS BY CO'S ENTIRE SHAREHOLDINGS IN ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM , KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED


Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to determine if the proposed transaction is "in the best interests of shareholders as a whole".

AND

Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to provide an update to their shareholders.

Continuous disclosure obligations and confidentiality agreements will be broadly similar between the 2 proposed transactions not withstanding the differing $$ values...

GLTA.

[nztx]

April 24 (Reuters) - Anglo American PLC AAL.L :

ANGLO AMERICAN :CONFIRMS THAT IT IS HAS RECEIVED AN UNSOLICITED, NON-BINDING AND HIGHLY CONDITIONAL COMBINATION PROPOSAL FROM BHP GROUP LIMITED
ANGLO AMERICAN : THE BOARD IS CURRENTLY REVIEWING THIS PROPOSAL WITH ITS ADVISERS.
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL COMPRISES AN ALL-SHARE OFFER FOR ANGLO AMERICAN
ANGLO AMERICAN - BHP PROPOSAL WOULD BE PRECEDED BY SEPARATE DEMERGERS BY CO'S ENTIRE SHAREHOLDINGS IN ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM , KUMBA IRON ORE LIMITED


Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to determine if the proposed transaction is "in the best interests of shareholders as a whole".

AND

Lets see if the Board of Anglo American takes in excess of 4 months to provide an update to their shareholders.

Continuous disclosure obligations and confidentiality agreements will be broadly similar between the 2 proposed transactions not withstanding the differing $$ values...

GLTA.



Hahaha .. VG that about says it all :)