RAK Rakon

[Xerof]

hehe, groundhog day - a sh1te year, but it'll all be alright from here on

[BlackPeter]

hehe, groundhog day - a sh1te year, but it'll all be alright from here on

Nothing new, just wondering why they still bother to write new reports ... updating the numbers alone would do.

[JayRiggs]

Regarding their forecast on H2 revenue from the H1 result from November 2016.

"With early H2 orders turning higher, the Company is forecasting H2 revenue to be up 12%-15% on H1."
Absolutely do not believe them. Expecting this revenue forecast to be downgraded. No credibility with these muppets.

Their H1 revenue was $46M.
FY2017 revenue is $94.7M, so the H2 revenue is $48.7M.
That's only 5.9% higher than H1. They missed their forecast of 12-15%. No surprises there.

[Rep]

True to form ....no surprises, another big loss

So all hunky dory on the western front

All systems normal, flight path locked for a slow spiral into oblivion without a competent pilot at the tiller.

[steveb]

Market update - Rakon forecasts improved earnings
At long last some good news,perhaps Siward will look at a takeover now?

[676767]

https://www.nzx.com/companies/RAK/announcements/305456

What do you think? Upto 25c by the end of the day?

[steveb]

up nearly 35% and sellers are drying up.my this stock owes me.I thought I was doing well 10 years ago when I bought in at $2.67!

[RGR367]

Only now that I had the chance to glance at its price so I won't say something negative so as not to have it voodooed once again :) But man, Lazarus might finally be resurrected this time :t_up:

[ddrone]

For some weird reason I didn't receive the market notification from ANZ until 5.25, 4 hours late. Anyone else have this issue?

[stoploss]

For some weird reason I didn't receive the market notification from ANZ until 5.25, 4 hours late. Anyone else have this issue?

Thats on a par with a lot of their service of late .

[Arthur]

Can anyone recall a profit upgrade from this company before? Early days yet of course

[Fatboyj]

Too late to jump onto this bucking bronco?

Will it ever become the share market darling again or are we just seeing a death spasm before it goes back to the teens and lower?

It would be a pure punt buying in at 25c eh?

[silverblizzard888]

I'm absolutely surprised how this share continues to have hopefuls. Losses in last two years, negative cashflow too and on the sound of profit everyone jumps in. Last year ebitda was 4 million on a 13 million loss though minus the impairment its more like 6.5 million loss, if this years is 9 - 11 million, then chances of break-even or 1-2 million profits, though on a company worth 57 million Mcap, it seems excessive and risky. For the buyers and holders of this stock I'd be interested to know why you're still hopeful.

[Fatboyj]

So 1 for a no then.

[golden city]

Surprised no one talk abou rak at the moment with the underling value in thinxtra and Taiwan partner with almost no debts

[Scrunch]

Surprised no one talk abou rak at the moment with the underling value in thinxtra and Taiwan partner with almost no debts

Its good that they are doing things that have the potential to create rather than destroy value. Thinxtra needs to go up in value quite a bit before it supports a higher Rakon value (but this is entirely possible for a tech stock). If Thinxtra's value to Rakon is taken from the recent placement its worth 5c

199,242 shares were sold for $3m creating an implied value per share of $15
785,407 shares are retained that have a value of $11.8m (at $15/share)
With 229m shares on issue, $11.8m is 5.1 cents of value to a Rakon share.

[carrom74]

Its good that they are doing things that have the potential to create rather than destroy value. Thinxtra needs to go up in value quite a bit before it supports a higher Rakon value (but this is entirely possible for a tech stock). If Thinxtra's value to Rakon is taken from the recent placement its worth 5c

199,242 shares were sold for $3m creating an implied value per share of $15
785,407 shares are retained that have a value of $11.8m (at $15/share)
With 229m shares on issue, $11.8m is 5.1 cents of value to a Rakon share.

Thanks for the post.When Thinxtra's investment was made the stock was trading at around 17c-18c...and if the 5c is added up then the share price would be about 22c-23c...with the current sp hovering around 22c then is the added value factored in already?

[golden city]

Rak has been restructure. They now forecast profitability. So rak alone will be valued higher than 18cehts I guessed. My calculation is around 30c plus with thinxtras potential

[stoploss]

Rak has been restructure. They now forecast profitability. So rak alone will be valued higher than 18cehts I guessed. My calculation is around 30c plus with thinxtras potential

They've been forecasting profit and massive sales ever since they listed , good luck ......

[RGR367]

OMG. Lazarus is alive and it returns to 1st half profit!!

[moimoi]

Seems to be oscillating into a new svelte shape...

Net debt near zero, $3m from Thinxtra coming, $2m+ from sale of building in France coming, throw in a bit of profit...the addictive scent of a wee divi could be in the air for the FY...

[winner69]

OMG. Lazarus is alive and it returns to 1st half profit!!

Lazarus was brilliant the other day at Addington as he powered to his 31st win out of 36 starts

Demolished the rest of the field

Good 15% return as well

[Vaygor1]

Seems to be oscillating into a new svelte shape...

Net debt near zero, $3m from Thinxtra coming, $2m+ from sale of building in France coming, throw in a bit of profit...the addictive scent of a wee divi could be in the air for the FY...


Just throw your money into some random rubbish tin, wait a year , and then head down to your local refuse collection depot to see how much of it you can get back. Probably not much.... but it will likely be more than putting it into RAK.

[golden city]

Looks all on target even over a bit expectation

[Hectorplains]

Looks all on target even over a bit expectation

Profit and growth... such a strange feeling of deja vu.

[golden city]

Looks like all the past has spook off investor. Sp not reacting that much

[Hectorplains]

Looks like all the past has spook off investor. Sp not reacting that much

Yeah, you're surprised? A small profit announced and major debt clearance - both get a tick. Where is future growth being driven from though? No guidance in that regard. Hey... Rakon could be the story of 2019...or the same old Rakon story. Plenty of better bets than this.

[Hectorplains]

Looks like all the past has spook off investor. Sp not reacting that much

I'm probably prejudice too - Rakon translates from the Hebrew as "from the coast of the city." I'm domicile in Chch; so that's New Brighton. A suburb that's over promised much and delivered little... They're now, again, talking loudly of hot salt pools and ... growth.

[whatsup]

Dipped my toe in for the first time since 2006, bejesus I had hair then, lets hope that they have turned the corner ( this time ! ) !! *

[golden city]

I am powered in too. Second attend

[carrom74]

Rakon has climbed over 3c now in roughly in 10 trading sessions.. Dead cat bounce?

[golden city]

Are we ready for another takeover ?

[carrom74]

Yearly high today 25.5c.

Anyone noticing? :confused:

[winner69]

Yearly high today 25.5c.

Anyone noticing? :confused:


You seem to be noticing

You reckon Rakon will ever be good (again?)

Think most punters have given up and wouldn’t even notice if Rakon was $1 again

[whatsup]

15 month high today are we in for some exciting times ??

[carrom74]

You seem to be noticing

You reckon Rakon will ever be good (again?)

Think most punters have given up and wouldn’t even notice if Rakon was $1 again

Rakon's present situation....

Positives:
Refreshed board(just one Robinson left)...
Siward paid37c a share to invest USD10m(it is a listed company in Taiwan)
Close to $1M profit in IH17
Thinxtra's payment due.
12M EBITA forecast for FH17

Negatives
Stigma....Proven negativity of broken promises for ages.....

I am not a punter winner but a keen watcher of this stock.As always "you never know whats in store"

[Kay]

Surprised this one has trickled down into 18c territory - I bought a few sub 20c

Surely there is a couple of million profit to be announced in the next month - maybe a dribble of a dividend too

[Scrunch]

Surprised this one has trickled down into 18c territory - I bought a few sub 20c

Surely there is a couple of million profit to be announced in the next month - maybe a dribble of a dividend too

It appears to have a general slightly negative trend that has been offset by spikes upwards as good news has been released. It may well spike upwards when the annual result is released. Imo they need repeated good results to get some confidence back in management and thereby support a higher share price.

Their last announcement was in my view negative as they had one off france property sale gains as part of the returning to profit forecast. What does the result look like when this one-off is removed?

[Kay]

It appears to have a general slightly negative trend that has been offset by spikes upwards as good news has been released. It may well spike upwards when the annual result is released. Imo they need repeated good results to get some confidence back in management and thereby support a higher share price.

Their last announcement was in my view negative as they had one off france property sale gains as part of the returning to profit forecast. What does the result look like when this one-off is removed?

Well it still looks like profit!

Il be happy with a spike though

[moimoi]

There was a sniff of a wee dividend in the air until they announced the proposed US$5.5M buy-out of the Centum Joint Venture partner in India.

[carrom74]

I am suspecting a fund(if at all there is One) selling heavily at the moment which is resisting any upswing whatsoever... the results are the key if there is any uptake...

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318092

OK Results---but still no dividend.:(

Most of the profits came from non-recurring incomes...

This year is crucial for them and for the shareholders

[Scrunch]

Well it still looks like profit!

Il be happy with a spike though

Fairly good spike today. RAK was trading at round 19c over the month leading up to todays profit result. There was a 5% increase to 20c on the 16th (small volume). Today it opened at 21.5c and closed at 22c, but was down on the daily high of 23.5c (on big volumes). That's up 10% on the day or 16% since the start of the week.



OK Results---but still no dividend.:(

Most of the profits came from non-recurring incomes...

This year is crucial for them and for the shareholders

Excellent observations that I agree with. Three others are:

At an EPS of 4.4 they will be on a historical PE of 5.0, yes this is inflated by non-recurring items but its still something that might get RAK onto the radar screen of low PE seekers over the next year

The current share price is low relative to NTA ($0.34) and net assets ($0.38) so if you believe the asset values, the current share price cheap

Debt is under control having returned to a net cash position of $7.4m which should also flow through to reduced interest costs next year

Is it a bargin at these prices - possibly but RAK has also serially disappointed in the past, so it will take repeated good results to restore the faith. DYOR

[Balance]

Fairly good spike today. RAK was trading at round 19c over the month leading up to todays profit result. There was a 5% increase to 20c on the 16th (small volume). Today it opened at 21.5c and closed at 22c, but was down on the daily high of 23.5c (on big volumes). That's up 10% on the day or 16% since the start of the week.



Excellent observations that I agree with. Three others are:

At an EPS of 4.4 they will be on a historical PE of 5.0, yes this is inflated by non-recurring items but its still something that might get RAK onto the radar screen of low PE seekers over the next year

The current share price is low relative to NTA ($0.34) and net assets ($0.38) so if you believe the asset values, the current share price cheap

Debt is under control having returned to a net cash position of $7.4m which should also flow through to reduced interest costs next year

Is it a bargin at these prices - possibly but RAK has also serially disappointed in the past, so it will take repeated good results to restore the faith. DYOR


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/318092

OK Results---but still no dividend.:(

Most of the profits came from non-recurring incomes...

This year is crucial for them and for the shareholders

$8.8m of the $10.0m came from non-recurring items.

So underlying real operating profit = $1.2m which means Rakon with a market cap of $50m trades on a PER of 42 times!

Cash in the bank used to buy-out 51% of Centum India.

Nothing compelling here imo.

[Leftfield]

$8.8m of the $10.0m came from non-recurring items.

So underlying real operating profit = $1.2m which means Rakon with a market cap of $50m trades on a PER of 42 times!

Cash in the bank used to buy-out 51% of Centum India.

Nothing compelling here imo.

A long time ago RAK heralded 'state of the art' acquisitions in France..... then it was the Internet of Things..... it now seems to have walked away from these acquisitions, but don't worry.... there is HUGE potential in India. Yeah Right.

Management has a history of 'over promising and under delivering'. DYOR and take care. (Disc - not holding)

[carrom74]

All said and done ..Rakon does have a potential in the defence sphere in India as India is one of the most aggressively spending countries in defence and its about 2.6% of their GDP and i would consider it high as it is still a developing country.But I will still be sceptical with this company...a lot of us have lost a lot.

[Sideshow Bob]

2018 Review

Everything is hunky-dory

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/319719/281437.pdf

[Scrunch]

What's that chartists thingie called when the share price goes above short term moving averages and short term moving averages are above the long term moving averages? Golden cross? Well I think that's just happened to RAK.

[Leftfield]

What's that chartists thingie called when the share price goes above short term moving averages and short term moving averages are above the long term moving averages? Golden cross? Well I think that's just happened to RAK.

Not quite Scrunch..... the short term MA is currently below the long term MA as the following pic shows. However, volumes are up and sentiment is improving.

Take care with this one, way too early to get excited IMO. (Disc. Don't hold, was once burned etc.....)
9765

[carrom74]

Not quite Scrunch..... the short term MA is currently below the long term MA as the following pic shows. However, volumes are up and sentiment is improving.

Take care with this one, way too early to get excited IMO. (Disc. Don't hold, was once burned etc.....)
9765

Good advice... and this is what the chairman had to say in the annual review about its share price...
"It is unfortunate that Rakon’s shares are trading in the low 20 cents,which is around half the net asset backing of 38 cents. No doubtRakon’s years of underperformance are largely to blame, coupledwith virtually no analyst coverage of our stock""

Seems very desperate to spruce the sp up IMO...

[Sideshow Bob]

Good advice... and this is what the chairman had to say in the annual review about its share price...
"It is unfortunate that Rakon’s shares are trading in the low 20 cents,which is around half the net asset backing of 38 cents. No doubtRakon’s years of underperformance are largely to blame, coupledwith virtually no analyst coverage of our stock""

Seems very desperate to spruce the sp up IMO...

He has 2,015,962 shares, almost 1% of the company, so no doubt the underperformance has been costly! (especially if he paid $1.60 at float!)

[Scrunch]

Not quite Scrunch..... the short term MA is currently below the long term MA as the following pic shows. However, volumes are up and sentiment is improving.

Take care with this one, way too early to get excited IMO. (Disc. Don't hold, was once burned etc.....)
9765

Fancy software vs free charts. On Anz securities charts which use 30 and 100 days it's crossed nicely but clearly on other combo's it hasn't. Other combo's will differ and may not trigger at all if the share price falls back down.

Disc previously badly burned by this one but saw a few signs of life and gambled on a top up. Agree it's still gambling not investing at the moment.

[Leftfield]

All cool scrunch, hard to beat free software!

Here's what Investopedia says about the golden cross.

"On a stock chart, the golden cross occurs when the 50-day MA rises sharply and crosses over the 200-day MA. This is seen as bullish. According to Joseph Granville, a famous technician from the 1960’s (who set out 8 famous rules for trading the 200-day MA), a golden cross can only occur when both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are rising."

The last sentence is quite crucial to your thoughts. IMO RAK's overall trend is still tracking sideways, i.e. not rising (yet).

[Rep]

He has 2,015,962 shares, almost 1% of the company, so no doubt the underperformance has been costly! (especially if he paid $1.60 at float!)

Two points Bob
It's reassuring that the chairman has finally noticed that the poor governance has destroyed so much shareholder wealth although he continues to blame others (i.e. analysts for not bothering to cover the stock) but noting he did concede that the sustained underperformance of the stock is also to blame.

The second thing is that he chose to note that the shares are well below their net asset backing of 38 cents - TBH that's polishing a turd again - much of the assets that he is referring aren't tangible and arguably if the market, asset stripper or party interested in taking them valued the net assets on that basis there's plenty of arbitrage to have someone interested. For the long suffering RAK holders, that simply isn't the case.

I've opined plenty of times that RAK is a case study in poor governance lumbering along like a giant wounded beast for years... only to be overtaken by another lumbering underperforming giant in FBU in shares that I wouldn't want to be holding (and fortunately don't - at least not directly)

[Scrunch]

Just shifted to buy of 25 and sell of 25.5
Only 0.5c away from a 1yr high

[carrom74]

Just shifted to buy of 25 and sell of 25.5
Only 0.5c away from a 1yr high

Has your Golden Cross "crossed" Scrunch??

[moimoi]

The 30 day has crossed upwards through the 200 day.

Still awaiting the "golden" 50 day crossing upwards through the 200 day.

Closed on a new 52 week high above resistance of 0.25.

Volume looks a little light, but its never been a high volume stock.....

[whatsup]

Good volume today 2.5 mil approx. and up 2% , is this the start of a turnaround , highest price, .26 for 2 years , hmmmm ?

[ddrone]

Good volume today 2.5 mil approx. and up 2% , is this the start of a turnaround , highest price, .26 for 2 years , hmmmm ?

Up to 0.3, 20% increase. 3 year high. What's the vibe?

[carrom74]

Anyone going to the ritual...I mean the ASM today? If yes then please post your thoughts and thanks in advance.

[Vaygor1]

Up to 0.3, 20% increase. 3 year high. What's the vibe?

Whatever the vibe, it is just that.. vibe.
Presentation stated a positive result compared to last year and an encouraging outlook.
But what is the point in believing a single word of it?
Why analyse any data from an innately untrustworthy source?
Avoid.

[whatsup]

Anyone going to the ritual...I mean the ASM today? If yes then please post your thoughts and thanks in advance.

Went to yesterdays meeting, Rakon is nailing its future to the 5g mast, apparently it (5g) needs a transponder very 300 mts in cities around the world as the 5g band width is very narrow as opposed to current 3g & 4g networks that can be broadcast from large communication towers ie Sky Tower.
Begs the question, how and where will these network points be located, who will own them and what permits will be required, will the network owner have to pay rent to the local authorities ( Auckland Council )?

Lots of Q & A going forward but if there are simple answers to these questions Rak has 2-3 years of much improved results ahead. Brian M did say the this years results should be the same as the current but with no extraordinaries lumped in. hmmmmmm, !

[BlackPeter]

Went to yesterdays meeting, Rakon is nailing its future to the 5g mast, apparently it (5g) needs a transponder very 300 mts in cities around the world as the 5g band width is very narrow as opposed to current 3g & 4g networks that can be broadcast from large communication towers ie Sky Tower.
Begs the question, how and where will these network points be located, who will own them and what permits will be required, will the network owner have to pay rent to the local authorities ( Auckland Council )?

Lots of Q & A going forward but if there are simple answers to these questions Rak has 2-3 years of much improved results ahead. Brian M did say the this years results should be the same as the current but with no extraordinaries lumped in. hmmmmmm, !

Lets face it - Rakon has no monopoly in producing frequency controlling devices, and they have not been very competitive in doing so anyway. Why do we think that the world will need a pretty insignificant NZ company run by a bunch of self serving directors to roll out 5g? No doubt 5g will offer new technological challenges and business opportunities, but I don't see why the usual suspects of the high tech world would leave the market to Rakon. They certainly didn't do that before ...

[winner69]

First few pages of any thread always interesting ....This thread no exception ....seems 2006 was exciting times

[carrom74]

Went to yesterdays meeting, Rakon is nailing its future to the 5g mast, apparently it (5g) needs a transponder very 300 mts in cities around the world as the 5g band width is very narrow as opposed to current 3g & 4g networks that can be broadcast from large communication towers ie Sky Tower.
Begs the question, how and where will these network points be located, who will own them and what permits will be required, will the network owner have to pay rent to the local authorities ( Auckland Council )?

Lots of Q & A going forward but if there are simple answers to these questions Rak has 2-3 years of much improved results ahead. Brian M did say the this years results should be the same as the current but with no extraordinaries lumped in. hmmmmmm, !

Thanks Whatsup...

Also with the new buy up in India...which they "claim" to be a low cost base production facility...How low is the cost? was there any questions put on those lines?
This may impact their bottomline --hence the query

[whatsup]

3.6 mil buy trade just gone through , approx. 1.6% share holding, can we read anything into this or is it a intershareholder shuffle ?

[whatsup]

I see the next financial results announcement will be the 15th Nov. Im very interested to see if there has been a marked improvement is their results and outlook for the whole year as was given at the AGM, its there something here or is it the same old B S ?

[whatsup]

RAK trading above .30 for the first time in 2 1/2 years , is there a turn around in trading as the results are to be announced shortly, have a look at what has happened today with the PLX today , green shoots and the S P is up 48% atm.

[Leftfield]

Well done RAK. Profits up $8.3 mill!!!?????? (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/326890/290552.pdf) ... but wait..... isn't $7.2 mill of the profit derived from a revaluation of Thinxtra??

Hardly inspiring for this non believer and non holder, but welcome any evidence that proves me wrong.

[Sideshow Bob]

Operating Cashflow was -$3.4m, and difference of $8.4m from the last corresponding period. Obviously a revaluation is non-cash, but not great.

[Scrunch]

The independent director Keith Watson was appointed to the board in 2018. He's joined the share register buying 100,000 shares at $0.28

Directors dipping their hands into their pockets to buy shares on-market is usually a good sign. Not always as proven by MPG but usually.

[whatsup]

I remember at this years AGM RAK's CEO said that the upcoming 5 G roll out would be very good business for Rakon and Im wondering with the recent cancelling of the Chinese Huawei participation in N Z,s rollout how much extra business will come Rakons way ?

[BlackPeter]

I remember at this years AGM RAK's CEO said that the upcoming 5 G roll out would be very good business for Rakon and Im wondering with the recent cancelling of the Chinese Huawei participation in N Z,s rollout how much extra business will come Rakons way ?

Given that Rakon is in a partnership with Huawei it well might mean less business coming Rakons way if our very own spooks block the use of Huaweis equipment.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11826501

[Rep]

I remember at this years AGM RAK's CEO said that the upcoming 5 G roll out would be very good business for Rakon and Im wondering with the recent cancelling of the Chinese Huawei participation in N Z,s rollout how much extra business will come Rakons way ?

Let's think about that for a moment.

Alcatel Lucent have 5G
Ericsson have 5G
Nokia have 5G
Samsung have 5G

SK (South Korea) Telecom selected Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung as did did the US AT&T - they all have lots of experience in rolling out networks as do Alcatel Lucent (although they did roll out the XT network for Spark).
Realistically, I can't see why one of those providers would want or need to have another provider involved like Rakon, that's just asking for a longer, harder path to integration - a few years ago, Rakon said that IoT was the next 'game changer' for Rakon and now it's 5G. Next year it will be something else to kick the can along the road.

[moimoi]

I remember at this years AGM RAK's CEO said that the upcoming 5 G roll out would be very good business for Rakon and Im wondering with the recent cancelling of the Chinese Huawei participation in N Z,s rollout how much extra business will come Rakons way ?

@ the AGM RAK also said that their products had been "designed in" to 80% of the Tier 1 5G component makers...

[Rep]

@ the AGM RAK also said that their products had been "designed in" to 80% of the Tier 1 5G component makers...

Let's see what the actual revenue looks like in a year's time then

[stoploss]

@ the AGM RAK also said that their products had been "designed in" to 80% of the Tier 1 5G component makers...

Years ago in one of the annual reports they were talking about one of their products and said something along the lines every mobile phone will need one ....
The performance of the s/p since would suggest they never made it into any of the one billion iphones made .
My point is they me be "designed in " but will the manufacturers go with RAK , history says no.

[moimoi]

Years ago in one of the annual reports they were talking about one of their products and said something along the lines every mobile phone will need one ....
The performance of the s/p since would suggest they never made it into any of the one billion iphones made .
My point is they me be "designed in " but will the manufacturers go with RAK , history says no.

In FY2014 RAK had over 100m in unit sales and were in iphones, and other smart phones.

The problem with the smart wireless device (SWD) market was that the products they were selling got heavily commoditised by other much larger players that had scale. Tough to make much money when the price per unit collapses to 4 cents...

Thats why RAK got out of the SWD market segment, with vast losses, as they were No.7 of 7 in size in that market.

5G requires significantly greater timing precision which supports RAK's innovation, and potentially (until subsequently commoditised over time) greater margins.

[whatsup]

More interest today up to .30 again.

[Scrunch]

Interesting "price sensitive" announcement today. Working capital facilities with ASB increased by $6m. I guess they now have a bit more dish to spend on inventory and then receivables.

[whatsup]

First half results out , massive improvement ( for RAK ) even with the smoke and mirrors, is the worst behind us now ?

[whatsup]

.33 atm , 3 & 1/2 year high today, what with the todays pick for 2019 in todays N Z Herald have we gone through the worst and with 5G how does this year look to investors ?

[carrom74]

.33 atm , 3 & 1/2 year high today, what with the todays pick for 2019 in todays N Z Herald have we gone through the worst and with 5G how does this year look to investors ?

I am surprised... one NZ herald article cannot make punters wake up suddenly..35c now

[Scrunch]

.33 atm , 3 & 1/2 year high today, what with the todays pick for 2019 in todays N Z Herald have we gone through the worst and with 5G how does this year look to investors ?

Up to 35c now, but the quotes are 35.5/36.5 So the next trade is likely to increase the daily gain further.

[whatsup]

I am surprised... one NZ herald article cannot make punters wake up suddenly..35c now

Every dog has its day maybe RAK " HAS " turned the corner !

[whatsup]

Up 6% today, highest sale for over 3 & 1/2 years. about time I might add !!!

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334379

Can someone please explain this announcement to me?

Thanks in advance.

[whatsup]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334379

Can someone please explain this announcement to me?

Thanks in advance.

Fin results released on Thursday 16th May.

[BlackPeter]

Fin results released on Thursday 16th May.

Well, yes - but there is more:


Thinxtra Investment Valuation
In the unaudited Interim Report covering the six months to 30 September 2018, the accounting treatment of Rakon’s investment in Thinxtra Pty Limited changed with the effect that the investment was required to be recognised at fair value. The valuation of Rakon’s interest in Thinxtra was based on an independent valuation report which resulted in a one-off $7.2 million gain within net profit after tax (NPAT). Upon re-examining the information available, the fair value at 30 September 2018 has been reassessed resulting in the reversal of the $7.2 million gain previously recognised within NPAT in the interim report to 30 September 2018.

The fair value of Rakon’s investment in Thinxtra at 31 March 2019 is not expected to be materially different from the reassessed valuation at 30 September 2018.

Expected FY19 Earnings
Rakon advises that subject to the finalisation of the audit for the year to 31 March 2019, it expects to achieve EBITDA of $13.3 million which is within the range indicated in December 2018. –Ends–

Looks to me like an announcement that they had at HY 7.2 million $7.2m less NPAT than they claimed they had.

[carrom74]

Well, yes - but there is more:



Looks to me like an announcement that they had at HY 7.2 million $7.2m less NPAT than they claimed they had.

Thanks BP..

The announcement made in Dec was forecasting an ebidta of 12-14M and now they say it will be 13.3M.But if the 7.2 M is off from HY18 and still they are making $13.3M then i suppose it all good??

I am not an expert but thats whats i can see here...

[winner69]

Thanks BP..

The announcement made in Dec was forecasting an ebidta of 12-14M and now they say it will be 13.3M.But if the 7.2 M is off from HY18 and still they are making $13.3M then i suppose it all good??

I am not an expert but thats whats i can see here...

I think the 7.2m is not included in what they call ebitda

No worries then

[BlackPeter]

Thanks BP..

The announcement made in Dec was forecasting an ebidta of 12-14M and now they say it will be 13.3M.But if the 7.2 M is off from HY18 and still they are making $13.3M then i suppose it all good??

I am not an expert but thats whats i can see here...

Not sure I would use the term "all good" in the context of Rakon, but yes, they said that they will magically maintain their forecasted EBITDA despite the outcome of the unexpected revaluation.

Will be interesting to find out what financial acrobatic they have to go through to achieve this.

Banking tax credits seems to be the flavour of the month (but I don't know, this is just what some other companies did recently).

[winner69]

Not sure I would use the term "all good" in the context of Rakon, but yes, they said that they will magically maintain their forecasted EBITDA despite the outcome of the unexpected revaluation.

Will be interesting to find out what financial acrobatic they have to go through to achieve this.

Banking tax credits seems to be the flavour of the month (but I don't know, this is just what some other companies did recently).

No magic or financial acrobatics needed Peter .....the $7.2m hasn’t /isn’t included in what Rakon calls ebitda

So it is all good

You getting pretty cynical about things lately

[BlackPeter]

No magic or financial acrobatics needed Peter .....the $7.2m hasn’t /isn’t included in what Rakon calls ebitda

So it is all good

You getting pretty cynical about things lately

Of course - how could I miss that.

EBITDA is per definition without revaluation gains or losses, so yes, all good for EBITDA. :t_up:

No question though that the amount will be sadly missed on the bottom line :scared: : NPAT will look less healthy (assuming they write these days a profit, do they?).

[carrom74]

Results tomorrow...

As usual my gut feel would be no dividends for this year too..

Also read an article in NBR about their goof up with regards to the Thinxtra NPAT reversal... when NBR asked them about it, the answer was "No comments"... How convenient eh?

[Leftfield]

NPAT down.

"Rakon Limited (‘Rakon’ or the ‘Group’) posted a net profit after tax of $3.4m (FY18: $10.0m), and Underlying EBITDA of $13.3m (FY18: $12.1m) for the year ended 31 March 2019. The Group’s Underlying EBITDA was in line with earlier guidance provided of between $12m to $14m.
The prior year’s $10m net profit after tax included $8.8m of gains recognised in relation to the sale of property in Argenteuil France. It also included the dilution gain and sale of shares in Thinxtra Pty Limited."

Here's the link. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334626)

Disc - don't hold, just watching.

[BlackPeter]

NPAT down.

"Rakon Limited (‘Rakon’ or the ‘Group’) posted a net profit after tax of $3.4m (FY18: $10.0m), and Underlying EBITDA of $13.3m (FY18: $12.1m) for the year ended 31 March 2019. The Group’s Underlying EBITDA was in line with earlier guidance provided of between $12m to $14m.
The prior year’s $10m net profit after tax included $8.8m of gains recognised in relation to the sale of property in Argenteuil France. It also included the dilution gain and sale of shares in Thinxtra Pty Limited."

Here's the link. (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/334626)

Disc - don't hold, just watching.

no surprises here - LOL.

Funny thing is that people called me a cynic when I eluded to their misvaluation impacting on the bottom line, but I guess this is probably just the impact of the endowment effect.

Some more material for winners behavioural economics friends :p;

[Leftfield]

no surprises here - LOL.
......Some more material for winners behavioural economics friends :p;

Yep, RAK continues to provide ample evidence of how not to run a company.

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337956

Spending spree continues...

[moimoi]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/337956

Spending spree continues...

Existing employee bro....

[whatsup]

Holding up reasonable well ATM with the AGM tomorrow is there something out there we should know ?

[carrom74]

Holding up reasonable well ATM with the AGM tomorrow is there something out there we should know ?

I am planning to go tomorrow and if i do... will update the forum about anything special...

There will be lot of talk tomorrow i guess about the 5G launch in NZ and probably thats why the stock is holding up...

[carrom74]

Went to the ASM and as usual... lot of promises... on 5G(this time) and for the past two years it was IOT(thinxtra).

Brent looked tired to me and there was a question posed by one of the shareholders asking when he will retire?? and the answer was obvious..."until i find someone"....Tired shareholders,directors and tired company...

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1cf28b45/rakon-outlines-5g-challenges-just-around-the-corner.html

[whatsup]

Went to the ASM and as usual... lot of promises... on 5G(this time) and for the past two years it was IOT(thinxtra).

Brent looked tired to me and there was a question posed by one of the shareholders asking when he will retire?? and the answer was obvious..."until i find someone"....Tired shareholders,directors and tired company...

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1cf28b45/rakon-outlines-5g-challenges-just-around-the-corner.html


Work in progress IMHO >

[moimoi]

Went to the ASM and as usual... lot of promises... on 5G(this time) and for the past two years it was IOT(thinxtra).

Brent looked tired to me and there was a question posed by one of the shareholders asking when he will retire?? and the answer was obvious..."until i find someone"....Tired shareholders,directors and tired company...

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/1cf28b45/rakon-outlines-5g-challenges-just-around-the-corner.html

Given your view of the Company and its Management one assumes you won't be a shareholder for much longer...?

[carrom74]

Given your view of the Company and its Management one assumes you won't be a shareholder for much longer...?

Not for long....but if Mr.trump goes easy on china and Huawei then there is a chance...just....

Also, there is a potential of a market in "low orbit satellites" for broadband orbiting the earth which Rakon has a technical know-how(CEO said in his presentation)...

Its all up in the air...

[winner69]

Ebitda going to be about 30% less than last year

But no worries .....orders are going to roll in (big time) next year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/345555/313469.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Ebitda going to be about 30% less than last year

But no worries .....orders are going to roll in (big time) next year

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/345555/313469.pdf

5G for them will be without doubt
... the same success story as 4G/LTE and the cloud;

They say history rhymes, while Rakon sucks ...

[Balance]

5G for them will be without doubt
... the same success story as 4G/LTE and the cloud;

They say history rhymes, while Rakon sucks ...

You have a way with words, BP! :D

[winner69]

5G for them will be without doubt
... the same success story as 4G/LTE and the cloud;

They say history rhymes, while Rakon sucks ...

You forgot about IoT which was their saviour last year

[carrom74]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/349093

Trading Halt... NZ herald reported in the morning of a possible takeover... by a Private equity firm Crescent
The chairman denies it on NBR... and now the trading halt...

[Cadalac123]

Insider trading again wake the f uP NZX 150k and sudden rise before a release lmao

[whatsup]

With the pending release of the 5G cell phone network Im hoping that things will pick up for RAK or that is what was said to us at last years AGM !

[BlackPeter]

5G for them will be without doubt
... the same success story as 4G/LTE and the cloud;

They say history rhymes, while Rakon sucks ...


You forgot about IoT which was their saviour last year


With the pending release of the 5G cell phone network Im hoping that things will pick up for RAK or that is what was said to us at last years AGM !

Rinse & repeat ...

[Cadalac123]

Might have missed a big opportunity
- not

[Scrunch]

No posts for a few months. RAK continued along arond 25-26 for the rest of Feb and into early March. The market wide covid decline hit which took the price down to a 15c low but fairly quickly recovered to 19-20c.

In the last couple of days the price has jumped back to 23.5. Is this just a recovery from the sell-down or is there some news/speculation from which RAK would benefit?

[Bob]

I've always thought this long established global high tech company should be a takeover prospect, NTA of 36c, time will tell

[Cadalac123]

No posts for a few months. RAK continued along arond 25-26 for the rest of Feb and into early March. The market wide covid decline hit which took the price down to a 15c low but fairly quickly recovered to 19-20c.

In the last couple of days the price has jumped back to 23.5. Is this just a recovery from the sell-down or is there some news/speculation from which RAK would benefit?

So far all we know is they still have sales and are keeping guidance . Never been a stable market favourite

[Leftfield]

So far all we know is they still have sales and are keeping guidance . Never been a stable market favourite

Most probably recent gains a result of what I call, 'The Sharsies effect.'

[SPC]

New poster. I've owned RAK since 2006 with buys ranging from $4.50+ to 15cents. It's been the worst investment I've ever made. It's astonishing how much effort and resource and intelligence over so many years can result in so little for shareholders. As long as the Robinsons hold a blocking stake it'll stay as it is forever…scraping by on hope for the next 'big thing'. No white knight here anytime soon I'm afraid. I don't doubt the technical underpinnings of this business but what's needed is a fresh Board with teeth and a new take on executive remuneration...the Chrysler/Iaccoca method ie. $1dollar pa salaries to the executive team and any other earnings directly a function of profit targets and share performance improvement. Currently the top tier can earn massive salaries year after year from a company barely profitable.

[Leftfield]

New poster. I've owned RAK since 2006 with buys ranging from $4.50+ to 15cents. It's been the worst investment I've ever made. It's astonishing how much effort and resource and intelligence over so many years can result in so little for shareholders. As long as the Robinsons hold a blocking stake it'll stay as it is forever…scraping by on hope for the next 'big thing'. No white knight here anytime soon I'm afraid. I don't doubt the technical underpinnings of this business but what's needed is a fresh Board with teeth and a new take on executive remuneration...the Chrysler/Iaccoca method ie. $1dollar pa salaries to the executive team and any other earnings directly a function of profit targets and share performance improvement. Currently the top tier can earn massive salaries year after year from a company barely profitable.

Well said SPC. This share best left well alone until the Robinson family depart board and management. Like you I held once (after a broker recommended it in the $4.00 area) I subsequently got out but not before I lost about $10k.

It was a good learning for me, I have done miles better with my investments since I started questioning anything a broker says!

[percy]

New poster. I've owned RAK since 2006 with buys ranging from $4.50+ to 15cents. It's been the worst investment I've ever made. It's astonishing how much effort and resource and intelligence over so many years can result in so little for shareholders. As long as the Robinsons hold a blocking stake it'll stay as it is forever…scraping by on hope for the next 'big thing'. No white knight here anytime soon I'm afraid. I don't doubt the technical underpinnings of this business but what's needed is a fresh Board with teeth and a new take on executive remuneration...the Chrysler/Iaccoca method ie. $1dollar pa salaries to the executive team and any other earnings directly a function of profit targets and share performance improvement. Currently the top tier can earn massive salaries year after year from a company barely profitable.

Welcome.
Great post.

[Wai Wai]

Where have all the sellers gone and why?

[nztx]

Where have all the sellers gone and why?

Who knows.. maybe they have given up & resigned to the fact that they are destined to remain parked up term holders in RAK going nowhere fast ?

On recent & not so recent reports, they can't be blamed for consigning the bundle to lowest level drawer possible, not visited often

[Scrunch]

Where have all the sellers gone and why?

The share price has been rising since a low in late March. Some of this rise, particularly late April was on good volumes. This tends to indicate the sellers have been bought out at current prices. They had two covid updates in early March and early April. The absence of an update early May would tend to indicate that things remain at least on-track, if not improving. If they had gone backwards, continuous disclosure updates should have prompted an update.

[BlackPeter]

Where have all the sellers gone and why?


The share price has been rising since a low in late March. Some of this rise, particularly late April was on good volumes. This tends to indicate the sellers have been bought out at current prices. They had two covid updates in early March and early April. The absence of an update early May would tend to indicate that things remain at least on-track, if not improving. If they had gone backwards, continuous disclosure updates should have prompted an update.

Nothing particular to see related to Rakon. While it is in general a great example for a company with weak governance and management - this fact does not seem to have influenced the share price over the last 3 months or so.

SP moved the last three months quite in harmony with the NZX50 ... as did many other shares.

11573

[carrom74]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12335733

Interesting development.. but wonder with 14% power, can they break the back?(need 20% to call for SGM)Reminds me of the shareholder revolt which booted one of the Robinson brothers from directorship.

[Cadalac123]

Rakon listed on the NZX in 2006 at $1.60 and shot to $5.45 a year later.

It last traded at 24c.

geez.. what a ride..

[Lola]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12335733

Interesting development.. but wonder with 14% power, can they break the back?(need 20% to call for SGM)Reminds me of the shareholder revolt which booted one of the Robinson brothers from directorship.

Yes its now one to be in...the same gentleman who seems to be instigating this pressure on directors to pull finger, has got form in his endeavors..viz NZX.

[Wai Wai]

The Companies Act says shareholders holding 5 percent or more of a company's shares can call a special meeting.

[Sideshow Bob]

Very similar to last year.....31st of March means limited impact of C19.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355387RAK FY2020 Results Announcement


29/6/2020, 10:13 amFLLYR
RAK FY2020 RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
29 June 2020
Steady revenue growth, strong cash flow & promising future

High technology company Rakon Limited (‘Rakon’ or the ‘Group’) is pleased to post net profit after tax of $4.0m (2019: $3.4m), and Underlying EBITDA of $14.8m (2019: $13.3m) for the year ended 31 March 2020. Rakon has exceeded its earlier guidance of $12m to $14m for 2020, reflecting a much stronger than expected finish to the year from a higher share of business in the Telecommunications segment.

Reported Underlying EBITDA for the year to 31 March 2020 includes a positive impact of $3.1m from the adoption of IFRS 16 Leases.
Momentum continues to build in the Telecommunications market and Rakon’s new Mercury+, Neptune and Mercury ultra-stable frequency control products have gone into the early deployment of 5G in South Korea, China and the US. Rakon products are designed into all of the major global suppliers of 5G technology, so remains well placed for future growth.

Managing Director Brent Robinson said recent global events caused by the Covid-19 pandemic demonstrate more than ever the need for high performing telecommunications infrastructure. Rakon is confident the demand for 5G will accelerate with increasing global expectation for highly reliable, high-speed communications and data transfer. The call for high performance frequency control products is also emerging for autonomous vehicle and health applications and continues to evolve in the Space and Defence and Global Positioning markets. Rakon’s strategy is to be first to market and world leading for frequency control solutions.

Rakon’s revenue was higher from data centre customers, as they invested to meet growing world-wide data needs. Further expansion into this industry will continue to be a focus in the coming year. Revenue from Global Positioning was lower due to price competition within a particular high volume, low margin segment. Rakon continues to move away from low margin consumer products.

Space and Defence also saw lower revenue for the year due predominantly to the phasing of long-term projects. However, Rakon remains confident and well placed in the Space and Defence market and is exploring new opportunities for its products to capitalise in the new space sector where there is growing use of low earth orbit satellites replacing traditional geo orbital satellites.

During the year, the inventory obsolescence provision rose by $3.3m. Consumption of slow moving products was lower than expected and a more aggressive view was taken. Actions continue in the coming year to streamline and reduce exposure to slow moving products.

Reported operating cash flow was $9.4m for the year however included $3.1m relating to IFRS 16 Leases. Overall net debt was $7.9m (2019: $7.7m) and included the final $2.1m payment for the acquisition of Rakon India. Rakon Group now owns 100% of its manufacturing business in India. This is a cornerstone in Rakon’s manufacturing strategy and also provides a solid footprint for expansion into the India market.

During the year ended 31 March 2020, Rakon continued to focus on developing its photolithography microfabrication process for the NZ manufacturing plant. “The recently announced XMEMS NanoQuartz technology which competes with silicon based technology has been well received” said Brent Robinson.

Covid-19 has had a negative short-term impact on the Group with the New Zealand and Indian manufacturing operations severely restricted for periods of time, however the medium to long term effects are not expected to be materially adverse. Some of Rakon’s business was recognised as essential and continued or resumed operations during the Covid-19 lockdowns. All manufacturing is forecast to return to full production by the end of June 2020.

Brent Robinson said “Covid-19 could have been much worse for Rakon and I am immensely proud of the way our team responded to safeguard the future of the company”.

The Board of Directors has declared that no dividend is to be paid for 2020. Rakon maintains a dividend policy such that it will pay a dividend of up to 50% of the after tax profit, if considered fiscally appropriate. The payment of dividends is subject to the approval of Rakon’s bank, ASB Bank, under its facility arrangement.
The Directors confirm that this 2020 results announcement is based on audited results which are not subject to any qualification.

Brent Robinson
Chief Executive Officer & Managing Director
-ends-

[winner69]

Hey Bob ...they say they have a ‘promising future’

[Sideshow Bob]

Hey Bob ...they say they have a ‘promising future’

Don't you know W69, they've been saving on marketing and comms since 2006 when they floated.....cut & paste mate!

PE of circa 20.....sure there are worse companies out there??

[SPC]

Well that statement is true. They have been promising the future since the day the Robinsons listed the family business.
Im still waiting...14 years and counting..

[Lola]

Well that statement is true. They have been promising the future since the day the Robinsons listed the family business.
Im still waiting...14 years and counting..

But they still have a dividend policy!!! Unbelievable. The ASB has to approve any dividend so why would you bother having such a thing let alone continuing to announce it.? These guys are in La La land.

[Shareguy]

Another terrible result from Rakon, what a surprise. A Profit to be ashamed of. Increased costs, increased stock write-offs. Excuses ,excuses, excuses. Once again no dividend for the poor loyal shareholders. They certainly take the award for one of the worst performing companies on the NZX and I don’t expect any changes from there. Poorly managed with lack of governance by directors.. And they wonder why it’s not covered by the main brokers... SELL

[moimoi]

RAK appears to spend $10M - $14M p.a on R&D to create net profit of -$5M - + $5M.

The benefit of RAK's fantastic IP and decades of know how appears to accrue to the behemoth telecommunications companies not RAK shareholders.

Does anyone know if RAK is included in any of the international 5G orientated ETF's?

@ Mike Daniels..Did anything come of the suggestion to "market" the company to international investors.?

Pricing for the product hardly covers costs of R&D and production suggesting an industry ripe for consolidation...

[wilba]

Rakon took the mickey out of "Mike Daniels".

If you read the original letter it is "Mike Daniel", who I am 95% sure would be the former long time CEO of FPH.

[SPC]

Yes and I've posted previously, considering the overhead in plant, people, land, buildings,R&D, international law and tax compliance costs, opportunity cost of all the above etc etc...and all they can make ocassionly is a couple of million?.
This isn't a worth the cost. It doesn't even make sense as a business. They may be advancing the technology of the telecommunication industry but they can't make a buck our of it. Sounds like charity to me. How can the Robinsons be proud of this?. More money in baked beans than this.

[BlackPeter]

Yes and I've posted previously, considering the overhead in plant, people, land, buildings,R&D, international law and tax compliance costs, opportunity cost of all the above etc etc...and all they can make ocassionly is a couple of million?.
This isn't a worth the cost. It doesn't even make sense as a business. They may be advancing the technology of the telecommunication industry but they can't make a buck our of it. Sounds like charity to me. How can the Robinsons be proud of this?. More money in baked beans than this.

Well, it always was a nice little money spinner for the Robinsons. Outstanding management packages (CEO and CMO - lol), great board fees, and I am sure they don't travel economy when they extend their loss making empire in some other bits of the world. Why would it be the problem of the Robinsons if the shareholders get out empty handed?

[nevchev]

Good on ya nzx.millions lost by mum and dad investors and you do nothing!!!!You are the UN of the worlds share markets.give yourself a slap on the back.lies upon lies and you've done nothing.Discusting,spineless and like tits on a bull.This is my opinion and should be taken as such

[moimoi]

Golden Cross on the Daily

[whatsup]

Slightly stronger finish today .305 does this have legs or is it dreamers buying ?

[tango]

There was a write-up in the Herald this morning so people might be feeling optimistic after reading that. Personally, unless the management change I don’t see the results improving

[whatsup]

Any one go to the AGM today, ideas please?

[Shareguy]

Same old bull****. One of the biggest disappointments on the Nzx. In my opinion a second rate board and a MD who clearly has no idea about what counts ie “profit”. I’m sure the same bull**** and excuses will be said next agm. And they wonder why analysts don’t follow them..

[SPC]

That's right. Rakon should be farming mushrooms not trying to fool it's hapless shareholders with endless promises of riches at the end of a rainbow. The thing is..what is the input cost per dollar to get $1 dollar out in profit?. You couldn't call this a credible business could you?.
Time the exec team turned up on nil pay and perks until they can turn a real profit and recompense their savagely sodo...d share holders.

[Lola]

Slightly stronger finish today .305 does this have legs or is it dreamers buying ?

IF they (Directors/management) can be believed this time, the stock is selling on circa 4.5 X forecast EBITDA ....seems pretty cheap so might grow legs afterall.

[BlackPeter]

IF they (Directors/management) can be believed this time, the stock is selling on circa 4.5 X forecast EBITDA ....seems pretty cheap so might grow legs afterall.

... and (as you correctly spelled out) - this is a big "IF" ;), though I probably would have used the word "trusted" instead of "believed";

[moimoi]

Consistent accumulation of the ask price today..

Uptrend intact on rising volume.

[Zaphod]

TA might provide your with some opportunity profit, but FA surely won't with RAK.

[Scrunch]

TA might provide your with some opportunity profit, but FA surely won't with RAK.

One thing the AR's do show is that revenue is has been increasing. From a low point of $95m in 2017, there was $101m in 2018, $114m in 2019 and $119m in 2020. The gross profit also looks pretty useful but its gobbled by lots and lots of operating expenses. Their French operations have been losing quite a bit of money so if that operation was turned around to even break-even there should be a strong boost to profitability. None of this will however help timing.

[Zaphod]

The issue I have with RAK is that there are far too many lofty promises (a lot like Cadmus back in the day) but no delivery, combined with a distinctly sour taste of nepotism, makes the company's primary purpose is to keep the family employed. The world-wide market for their products has bloomed, yet they've never been able to break into the market in any major way.

At one point I voted against re-election of all of the family members, and when this failed, I sold up. Until new appointments are made, I can't see this company ever flourishing. Perhaps a hostile takeover is the best thing that could happen, but even then, I'm not sure who would want to attempt it.

[Greekwatchdog]

Without wanting to put the mockers on this she keeps rising. Anyone seen anything??

[RGR367]

Without wanting to put the mockers on this she keeps rising. Anyone seen anything??

Sensible Sharesies people might have started looking and seeing it's way cheaper than CBD :p

[Scrunch]

Without wanting to put the mockers on this she keeps rising. Anyone seen anything??

The presentation pack from the agm does forecast a useful lift in ebitda to $16-$18m. This is well up on the last few years and being provided in August tends to indicate both the current year is doing well and and past lockdown effects are factored in.

[Greekwatchdog]

:scared: don't require that roller coaster on here, Robinson family have given shareholders all they can handle with ups and Big Dips..

[nztx]

38.5 pennies for a bit of the action .. certainly didn't see that coming

[Shareguy]

I might have to eat humble pie. From what I hear Rakon have turned a corner and are indeed doing well this year. Looking like good value and worth a punt.

[Wai Wai]

Apple announcing 5G in new iPhone on 13th October...more demand for 5G infrastructure

[beetills]

What are people thinking of the latest result.
Was in but now out.

[Scrunch]

38.5 pennies for a bit of the action .. certainly didn't see that coming

And since that post of 1 Sept 2020 Rak is up another 25% with trades as high as 48c today.

[Greekwatchdog]

Quite a run post Half Year which was ok but they warned head winds 2nd half. Interesting..

[Getty]

Be careful.
One of those Aussie tip sheets could have written up a flowery report, for a good old pump & dump, then you'll be tipped over & out, and saying sheet!

[Greekwatchdog]

My average is .21 so well ahead...

[Frostwind]

Anyone here still holding this puppy?

[winner69]

Anyone here still holding this puppy?

Puppy? ..


Share price getting back to where it was 10 years ago ...surely that’s good

IoT, 5G and all that sort of stuff ....good for Rakon

[Frostwind]

Should I mortgage my house and go all in, so I can buy 10 houses in 3 years time?

[nztx]

Should I mortgage my house and go all in, so I can buy 10 houses in 3 years time?

still watching from the sidelines

anyone seen anything worthy of getting excited about yet ? ;-)

I'm uncertain about what overall market creep factor to discount this one by to ascertain degree of
hot air present .. ;)

[Mel]

Anyone here still holding this puppy?
Been a holder for a long time, and at current SP, I'm breaking even!! So, will be holding in the hope that the technology future will be positive for RAK. Having said this, I think the best thing would be for a long overdue overhaul of the executive team!

[Waltzing]

sell, even skl went up.... oca.... anything... peb... ebo... kpg..

[Shareguy]

Have been a reluctant long term holder . For once I am positive on this stock. Finally I think we might be in for a good year. First half looks good and expect the full year result to be higher than forecast and a divi paid . I think it’s going to continue to re rate and looks cheap at current price so will continue to hold.

[whatsup]

Busted through .70 today, its been along time, WOW + + WOW !!

[RGR367]

Busted through .70 today, its been along time, WOW + + WOW !!

Hush. Better we all keep quiet until it hits a dollar again.

[Scrunch]

Busted through .70 today, its been along time, WOW + + WOW !!

Adding a link to the NZX update of 16 Dec as it isn't in the thread yet. Perhaps all these recent increases are just a slow recognition of what's in this report.
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/365109

From this update you can calculate that over the last four years the 2nd half has had a stronger result than the first half. 2nd half underlying EBITDA has been $2.8m, $4.5m, $1.5m and $1.0m better than the first half. This year underlying EBITDA in the first half was $11.4m for a net surplus of $4.6m.

Net finance costs were $0.41m in the first half, but this should decrease in the 2nd half as by 30 Sept net debt was down to $2.8m. If this 1st half strength continues into the 2nd half, a $10m+ net surplus (4.4c EPS) would appear possible, which is a huge increase on the $4.0m FY result to 31 March 2020.

This would mean that despite the strong price increases of the last few weeks, the prospective PE could still be well under 20.

[Shareguy]

It’s been a long time , but at last we have some movement. Looks like there is some serious interest in this stock and $1.00 looks likely soon. My only concern is a takeover happens before any real money is made . Was a market darling over $5.00 when it listed and a lot of holders have held on. Will have cash in bank and no debt when reports soon in my opinion and it is all looking good for maiden divi. about time.. so don’t sell and hold on for the ride are my thoughts.

[SPC]

Speeding ticket..
Let's hope this stock accumulates a few more too...

[Shareguy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366306
Yes, yes, yes. It’s good news alright..

[Scrunch]

So we were at underlying EBITDA of $16-$18m with last year being $14.787m.
The new range is $20-22m.

Interest expenses should not be much more than the $0.418m at half year. By mid-year cash balances were $9.964m with bank OD / borrowing of $12.797m, so net debt was nearly zero. Depreciation and amortisation was $8.823m in the 2020 year and $4.344m at the half year.
Its unclear what will happen with taxation, the half year result had an effective tax rate of 17%.

There was also a favourable unusual gain of $2.287m from different government's covid's assistance in the half year result. Its unclear if any covid assistance is included or excluded in the guidance, but it is of a similar nature to many of the other unusual expenses that Rakon have previously excluded from an underlying result.

This tends to indicate the result could be a net surplus of $10m+ which would be over 4.4c EPS. A dividend looks increasingly likely (despite RAK's long string of indications a dividend will be soon, yet none occurring).

[Nevl]

Well more positive news. Is RAK about to get close to the $1 mark?

[Scrunch]

Well more positive news. Is RAK about to get close to the $1 mark?

Not sure but I thought the movement up today was surprisingly small. Allowing for tax at 28% and no change in interest, depreciation or amortisation, the upgrade was a net surplus estimate increase of somewhere between $1.4m and $4.3m. The mid-point is $2.9m. The mid-point represents an EPS increase of 1.3c, but the daily movement was only 3c.

This indicates either the market was already guessing a result above guidance, doesn't believe the new guidance, expects any increase in earnings to only last a few years, or hasn't fully factored in the change from under-performance to earnings growing strongly. Here's hoping its the last of these possibilities.

[Wai Wai]

“According to a WSJ article sourcing Jay Ritter, the median revenue multiple for a US tech company on its first day post-IPO in 2020 was 23.9x versus a typical 6x for most of the period post the Nasdaq bubble from 2001-2019.” (NBR Margin Call 13/1/21)

Rakon Revenue for year end 31/3/2021say 120m
Rakon market cap @ 75cps $171m
Rakon current revenue multiple 1.4 times

Go figure

[BlackPeter]

“According to a WSJ article sourcing Jay Ritter, the median revenue multiple for a US tech company on its first day post-IPO in 2020 was 23.9x versus a typical 6x for most of the period post the Nasdaq bubble from 2001-2019.” (NBR Margin Call 13/1/21)

Rakon Revenue for year end 31/3/2021say 120m
Rakon market cap @ 75cps $171m
Rakon current revenue multiple 1.4 times

Go figure

Such a huge revenue multiple make only sense if the market bakes a huge amount of consistent growth into the equation.

Just remind us - by how much did Rakon grow over the last say 10 or 15 years?

See ...

[sb9]

Took a modest punt on the dips last week, let's see how it plays out.

[sb9]

Surely, one or two funds on accumulation mode here. Was interesting to watch closing auction today.

[Sideshow Bob]

More very positive news.....


Rakon Secures Significant Orders

12/2/2021, 8:37 amMKTUPDTE12 February 2021

Rakon Secures Significant Orders

The Rakon Limited Board of Directors is pleased to advise that Rakon has secured several significant orders from new and existing customers including a material order from a new multi-national customer. Rakon expects to deliver the majority of these orders in FY2022, with the balance in FY2023. Indicatively, Rakon expects that these orders will increase its revenue in FY2022 by at least 20% from FY2021.

To produce and deliver the volumes in these orders requires an increase in capacity at Rakon’s New Zealand operations. In addition to sourcing materials for the products, Rakon is investing in equipment for additional manufacturing and testing capability, and hiring extra technicians, operators and engineers to meet the demand.

These orders are not expected to impact Rakon’s financial performance for FY2021 and Rakon confirms its current guidance for FY2021 of Underlying EBITDA1 of between NZ$20 million and NZ$22 million.

After Rakon has completed its business planning and budgeting for FY2022, including these new orders and associated additional revenue and costs, Rakon expects to provide earnings guidance for FY2022 by the end of March 2021.

The increased business activity involved with these orders will require Rakon to manage heightened risks, including relating to its supply chain and operations, as well as the continuing risks from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical issues.

As 5G networks continue to roll out globally and TCXO shortages, resulting from a factory fire at Asahei Kasei Microdevices (AKM) in Japan, persist, as well as a consumer device boom, Rakon has been able to capitalise on what was already a constrained TCXO market across a range of applications in both existing and new sectors. Rakon also sees significant growth in fibre networks worldwide resulting in unprecedented demand for its Mercury OCXOs.
-Ends-

[sb9]

Could see sp surpassing a buck in the near term on back of that announcement. If they play their cards right they've great potential ahead....

[Shareguy]

Yes yes yes....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367458

[HITMAN]

That’s a nice little announcement... happy holding.

[sb9]

Putting on some nice strides with decent volume on daily basis, 88c cleaned out today looking on course for buck soon me reckons.

[moimoi]

Yup...steady and consistent buying demand for some months now...

Congratulations to Darren Robinson and the Sales team for securing the top notch customers recently.

Real opportunity to take market share here in the current circumstances.

Difficult to see where resistance lies...($1.25??)

Looks to be forming a decade long cup n handle formation (Perhaps Hoop could comment on the chart)

GLTA

[nztx]

A dividend on the horizon soon to make all the maidens smile ?

.. or perhaps too soon just yet ;)

[sb9]

A dividend on the horizon soon to make all the maidens smile ?

.. or perhaps too soon just yet ;)

My take is no maiden divvy yet, observing volume over past month or so, seems as though one or two funds are building decent stake. Be interesting to see who that may be if and when SSH notice is triggered.

[Alz99]

been holding for 10 years 12 cents away from breaking even ,, what an investment.. go you good thing :scared:

[Getty]

I'm not laughing at your misfortune, but I am laughing at the way you put it.

Maybe, buy, hold, and grow old...

[SPC]

Try 16 yrs. You'll have to factor on top the opportunity cost of inflation and averaged bank deposit return plus purchase cost to work out the real break even. I'm in the black now but only by virtue of buying up job lots when they were cheaper than bog roll..

[RGR367]

Try 16 yrs. You'll have to factor on top the opportunity cost of inflation and averaged bank deposit return plus purchase cost to work out the real break even. I'm in the black now but only by virtue of buying up job lots when they were cheaper than bog roll..

15 yrs actually as it listed on 16 May '06 at IPO price of 160 but debuted in NZX at 220.
I'm on the same boat as I chased it from its IPO all the way to 23 cents just to average down. I'm on "paper positive" now but not selling still as the story I was told and believed is not yet complete to my satisfaction.

[sb9]

15 yrs actually as it listed on 16 May '06 at IPO price of 160 but debuted in NZX at 220.
I'm on the same boat as I chased it from its IPO all the way to 23 cents just to average down. I'm on "paper positive" now but not selling still as the story I was told and believed is not yet complete to my satisfaction.


Try 16 yrs. You'll have to factor on top the opportunity cost of inflation and averaged bank deposit return plus purchase cost to work out the real break even. I'm in the black now but only by virtue of buying up job lots when they were cheaper than bog roll..


been holding for 10 years 12 cents away from breaking even ,, what an investment.. go you good thing :scared:

Wow, well done guys for holding on, must've been quite nerve racking...they gotta capitalise this time on huge tailwinds in the industry they operate in and make it count. And with these sort of tech companies, there's always an outside chance of being gobbled up by some big corporate at hefty multiple.

[Alz99]

I'm not laughing at your misfortune, but I am laughing at the way you put it.

Maybe, buy, hold, and grow old...

:laugh: Thanks Mate.. exactly how you put it.. mind you RAK was a great lesson for me when i 1st started investing.. they story was good but the numbers never matched .. DYOR

[sb9]

https://www.rakon.com/corporate/about/news/43-rak-news-product/613-world-firsts-from-mars-and-a-kiwi-connection

Pretty cool achievement for a little Kiwi company...

[clown]

https://www.rakon.com/corporate/about/news/43-rak-news-product/613-world-firsts-from-mars-and-a-kiwi-connection

Pretty cool achievement for a little Kiwi company...

Whoa! Very cool

[SPC]

Fab. When Mars Rover sales pick-up in the coming months we could make some money?.

[BlackPeter]

https://www.rakon.com/corporate/about/news/43-rak-news-product/613-world-firsts-from-mars-and-a-kiwi-connection

Pretty cool achievement for a little Kiwi company...

Well, yes, though admittedly the only act of Kiwi ingenuity in this deal was to buy the French Temex in 2010 - as far as I know are they doing the space electronics still in France. High precision components, low profitability - that's the reason they could buy Temex ways under book value: https://www.rakon.com/corporate/about/news/42-rak-news-corp/84-rakon-to-acquire-temex

Not sure whether they make money today with this branch ...

[Shareguy]

According to last NZX announcement Rakon will be reporting the size of the upgrade for 2022 in the next few days (by end of March). I think it’s the last chance to buy at this level. At this price “cheap as chips” in my opinion.

[SPC]

God I hope so. 15+ years and waiting.
I could have bought several new cars in this time and still have come out ahead but I discovered the only thing that depreciates more than a motor vehicle is a Rak share.
It's 'this time' or never.

[sb9]

So FY22 earnings are roughly going to be higher by about 33% or more, will that translate into similar appreciation in sp or more. Could well be $2, closer to this time next year or higher if there are one or two more upgrades along the way with 5G roll out happening in big force in US and around the world.

[SPC]

There's always a banana skin lurking around the corner with this co.

[Scrunch]

There's always a banana skin lurking around the corner with this co.

The FY22 range of $27 to $32m for EBITDA1 is a big jump from this years $20 to $22m.

[Cadalac123]

Atleast they’re being upfront about the strong tailwind they have right now with the TXCO shortage.

What about after that though?

[moimoi]

Excellent upgrade!!

Well done to the Rakon Team.

@Cadalac123 your query is partially answered within today's upgrade announcement but also from the previous announcement....

""Rakon also sees significant growth in fibre networks worldwide resulting in unprecedented demand for its Mercury OCXOs.""

[RGR367]

Finally able to sell some of this Laxarus. A long time wait really for a meager low 5 digit $ gain.

[Cadalac123]

Excellent upgrade!!

Well done to the Rakon Team.

@Cadalac123 your query is partially answered within today's upgrade announcement but also from the previous announcement....

""Rakon also sees significant growth in fibre networks worldwide resulting in unprecedented demand for its Mercury OCXOs.""

It was a rhetorical question...
Companies say a lot of things in their reports.

[Shareguy]

Well another upgrade, Fantastic and over $1.00 finally. Still cheap as chips when you work back the new numbers. I expect we will see some broker research and a lot more interest from funds. Still a real takeover target in my opinion.

[Mel]

Here's hoping, its been a very long wait for those of us that have invested in Rakon over a decade ago!

[sb9]

Here's hoping, its been a very long wait for those of us that have invested in Rakon over a decade ago!

Yeah, can feel some of you guys pain of long suffering holding. This is probably their best opportunity to make good checkered past by careful execution of growth opportunity with benefit of current tailwind in the industries they serve.

And I agree with Shareguy’s view that this one is very good candidate for a takeover.

[SPC]

Robinson family intetests hold a blocking stake so can't see them selling out to a takeover.

[sb9]

Robinson family intetests hold a blocking stake so can't see them selling out to a takeover.

Sure, any takeover will need their support and if the offer is tempting enough they probably wouldn’t say no.

[SPC]

...I'm hoping as well but not holding my breath..

[Wai Wai]

FYI LGL Group is a mini Rakon listed on NYSE (ticker LGL) current Price Earnings Ratio is 61:1
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LGL/
Go figure!

[Shareguy]

Is anyone aware of any broker research on this stock yet?

[Wai Wai]

Is anyone aware of any broker research on this stock yet?
Still ignored by the cartel

[sb9]

Nice set of numbers for FY21. With robust outlook and global demand, might be looking to pay maiden in FY22.

[Shareguy]

Disappointing no maiden dividend. Looking at the numbers, from my calculations it’s trading on a PE of 20.9 for full year 2021 based on $9.6 NPAT. Forecast 2022 Ebitda $27 to $32 m. If we go with the midpoint $29.5 million that’s an increase of 25% over last year which depending on nothing adverse happening I can see NPAT of $12 to $15m (5.3 cents to 6.6 cents eps) which gives a forecast PE for 2022 of 16.6 to 13.3

[sb9]

Disappointing no maiden dividend. Looking at the numbers, from my calculations it’s trading on a PE of 20.9 for full year 2021 based on $9.6 NPAT. Forecast 2022 Ebitda $27 to $32 m. If we go with the midpoint $29.5 million that’s an increase of 25% over last year which depending on nothing adverse happening I can see NPAT of $12 to $15m (5.3 cents to 6.6 cents eps) which gives a forecast PE for 2022 of 16.6 to 13.3

I was always of the opinion that divvy this year (FY21) very unlikely.

Interesting listening to conf call y'day and more around Tanarra Capital's involvement in providing funding to the tune of $20mln replacing ASB's debt finance. There could be some corporate play in here with Tanarra amongst it.

[Nevl]

Tesla apparently is looking to get their own Chip making foundry, with Rakon's GPS crystals and the work done on the Perseverance Rover I think they should be marketing to Elon right now.

I can see a lot of synergy there and given they are super cheap for a chip manufacturer a bargain for Tesla.

[moimoi]

They have a 10 year runway of growth ahead of them and difficult to see how a modest divi would move the needle.

Rather they invest to capture the growth. Hard to find another NZX company in such a sweet spot of macro factors.

Significantly undervalued imo. Current market cap wouldn't even replace their high tech manufacturing machinery.

Just LOL @ Nvidia's PE ratio of 47.

[sb9]

They have a 10 year runway of growth ahead of them and difficult to see how a modest divi would move the needle.

Rather they invest to capture the growth. Hard to find another NZX company in such a sweet spot of macro factors.

Significantly undervalued imo. Current market cap wouldn't even replace their high tech manufacturing machinery.

Just LOL @ Nvidia's PE ratio of 47.


Couldn't agree more, if Robinsons and Board play their cards well here, them and shareholders could be in for big bonanza. CFO was very impressive on the call y'day. better than CEO Brent.

[sb9]

Nice to see Director buying a decent lot on market.

[Scrunch]

Nice to see Director buying a decent lot on market.

Yep

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/373551/347877.pdf

56,820 shares purchased at 88c then 92c. The 2020 annual report had her being paid $60k of director fees (before tax). Spending $52k on additional shares is therefore a useful vote of confidence.

She is also one of the independent's on the board.

[SPC]

Yes and no... haven't met many poor corporate Directors in my life. So some skin in the game yes, but a fairly light graze as opposed to serious flesh.
Given continuous disclosure I wouldn't read in too much here.

[sb9]

Biden's announcement re $1 Trillion Infrastructure investment which includes broadband (5G) sector should give further boost to Rakon's prospects for FY22 and beyond.

[sb9]

Decent volume over past few days with higher highs, someone's keen to accumulate. Hope some more good news on the way.

[moimoi]

Looks to be making an assault on the $1 resistance. Very positive if it can break through and hold.

Chart constructive, trending up, 10 day SMA turned up thru the 50 day couple of days ago, OBV and RSI rising.

[sb9]

Holy, nearly 4.4% shareholding changed hand pre-market..



88
10,000,000
09:44
SP

[Wai Wai]

Siward sell down to instos ?Liquidity and recognition of value at last

[Rawz]

Holy, nearly 4.4% shareholding changed hand pre-market..



88
10,000,000
09:44
SP




And traded 5% below market price. I was hoping that it would fall below $0.90 so i could buy some. Guess it will now as this trade sets the price no?

[sb9]

And traded 5% below market price. I was hoping that it would fall below $0.90 so i could buy some. Guess it will now as this trade sets the price no?

Usually big lots do get decent discount as its harder to dispose them on market.

[sb9]

Siward sell down to instos ?Liquidity and recognition of value at last

Correct call, they still have another 28mln or so, will they continue sell down further or hold for now?

[moimoi]

effectively got their money back from their investment in Feb 2017.

[Shareguy]

A reminder that it’s the AGM on Thursday. I encourage anyone to either go online at Computershare or to vote themselves and say NO to increase directors fees. Although there has been a turnaround of late, consideration needs to be given to the long-suffering shareholders in this company. In my opinion there should be no pay rises until they start paying dividends. Very disappointing that this has even been raised at this time and shows that the management have little empathy considering the poor results to date. Give us a dividend please.

[SPC]

Totally agree and voted no. I've never been impressed with the governance of RAK particularly when it was Robinson heavy(ier). It's been a virtuace circle for Dirs and Executives especially when some are both, while holders have been forgotten.

[moimoi]

If your waiting for a dividend have you considered that you may have invested in the wrong company...?

[sb9]

A reminder that it’s the AGM on Thursday. I encourage anyone to either go online at Computershare or to vote themselves and say NO to increase directors fees. Although there has been a turnaround of late, consideration needs to be given to the long-suffering shareholders in this company. In my opinion there should be no pay rises until they start paying dividends. Very disappointing that this has even been raised at this time and shows that the management have little empathy considering the poor results to date. Give us a dividend please.

Fireworks to go off soon at Ellerslie Events Centre, get your popcorn ready if you're attending ASM online.

[sb9]

Possible divvy for FY22 all going well and guidance tracking at top end. $1 here we come, me thinks.

[Sideshow Bob]

Possible divvy for FY22 all going well and guidance tracking at top end. $1 here we come, me thinks.

What happened with the fireworks SB9??

[sb9]

What happened with the fireworks SB9??

It was rather subdued I must say.

Meeting just concluded and my thoughts:

- Solid outlook and they're in great shape for next few years
- Seem to have learned from their yester years mistakes and are being very nimble and conservative
- Impressed with Brent's technical knowledge, he sure know his stuff- full marks to him (wasn't thinking very high of him before this)
- Shareholders present at meeting in person sounded very happy with progress and acknowledged that with a round of applause

[Shareguy]

Some good points came out today. It was announced that current trading is at the upper end of guidance and yes we have a promise of a dividend, subject to capex and the usual stuff. This chip shortage is going to last a while and by the sound of it Rakon have gained significant forward orders. In conclusion I think the best is yet to come so hold on.

[SPC]

The best is yet to come...yes I can't really argue with that ..

[sb9]

The best is yet to come...yes I can't really argue with that ..

But for their checkered past history, this could easily have been around 2 bucks purely based on earnings outlook and industry tailwinds they service.

[Wai Wai]

This is the cheapest stock on NZX
EBITDA multiple of 6.7:1 on "highly achievable" guidance of 32mil
Their patented gear is used in Amazon's, Google's data centres, every Tesla car, every driverless John Deere tractor... the list goes on
Fill your boots