RAK Rakon

[sb9]

This is the cheapest stock on NZX
EBITDA multiple of 6.7:1 on "highly achievable" guidance of 32mil
Their patented gear is used in Amazon's, Google's data centres, every Tesla car, every driverless John Deere tractor... the list goes on
Fill your boots

Looks like buyers are piling now...

[sb9]

Looks like few large Mexican walls being put up before we can go past a buck..

[Mel]

The Directors could simply buy some shares and drive an upward trajectory in the share price - a proposed increase in the directors fees would then simply be a rounding error!!

Totally agree and voted no. I've never been impressed with the governance of RAK particularly when it was Robinson heavy(ier). It's been a virtuace circle for Dirs and Executives especially when some are both, while holders have been forgotten.

[Muse]

Anyone actually know how big the market is for Rakon's specific niche of product? Is the japenense competitor publicly listed?
Seems interesting and cheap as chips based on current trading, with its history as an overhang. Ripe for a takeover if it can keep growing.
Pretty working capital intensive though

[sb9]

Man there's stranglehold around 97c to buck mark...

[moimoi]

Gotta churn thru the 10m @ 0.88 Siward sell down shares..

[sb9]

Gotta churn thru the 10m @ 0.88 Siward sell down shares..

Tht they've indicated no further selldown as per their statement released on 26 Jul - "Siward Chairman and Rakon Director Tony Tseng has advised the Board of Directors of Rakon Limited that Siward has no plan for another sell down and remains a long term investor and technology partner of Rakon."

[moimoi]

yup got that...

IMO some of the punters who bought the Siward sell down @ 88 cents will have flicked them straight back on the market...hence the wall to which you refer...

[Scrunch]

yup got that...

IMO some of the punters who bought the Siward sell down @ 88 cents will have flicked them straight back on the market...hence the wall to which you refer...

Makes sense. 97c is a 10% gain

[moimoi]

Travelling well here...churning through the available supply.

A breakout beckons..

[Scrunch]

Travelling well here...churning through the available supply.

A breakout beckons..

I was thinking the same thing.

There was quite a large list of sellers at 97-100 that are progressively being met. This known availability of stock is decreasing with 93k at $1.00

There will no-doubt be sellers waiting until its over a dollar to put in their sell orders, but what volume will be available and at what price?

Disc holding

[sb9]

I was thinking the same thing.

There was quite a large list of sellers at 97-100 that are progressively being met. This known availability of stock is decreasing with 93k at $1.00

There will no-doubt be sellers waiting until its over a dollar to put in their sell orders, but what volume will be available and at what price?

Disc holding

Be interesting to see if they continue to offer supply post $1 breakout or pause for now.


Travelling well here...churning through the available supply.

A breakout beckons..

My pick is blue skies ahead post a buck

[Wai Wai]

Chart says $1.25 next stop now $1.01 broken

[sb9]

Chart says $1.25 next stop now $1.01 broken

Agree, looking very bullish now after it broke through the buck mark

[Shareguy]

Let’s face it . Currently trading on underwhelming PE for a growth stock. We will soon be talking about $2

[Rawz]

Let’s face it . Currently trading on underwhelming PE for a growth stock. We will soon be talking about $2

What is the PE for this stock? Says 24 on ASB securities. Havnt really looked into it myself because of historical poor performance and shareholder wealth destruction. But I do love a good turnaround story, one can make heaps of gains from these type of stocks.

[Wai Wai]

EBITDA multiple 7.3:1 on "easily achievable" guidance of $32m
Revenue multiple less than 2x

[Scrunch]

EBITDA multiple 7.3:1 on "easily achievable" guidance of $32m
Revenue multiple less than 2x

The AGM commentary of 12 August 2021 included the following comment:
"The steady improvement in Underlying EBITDA has continued over the last five years, as shown in the presentation slide. In April 2021 your Board indicated further improvement with forecast Underlying EBITDA in the range of $27 million to $32 million for FY2022. I can advise today that we are currently tracking to the top end of this guidance range, but that could be impacted by significant global shortages and increased lead times for inventory as well as the continuing uncertainty arising from the Covid-19 pandemic affecting our operations and those of our suppliers and customers."

From the slide pack underlying EBITDA for 2019 was 14.8 and for 2020 it was 23.5.

So the bottom of the range was 15% growth in EBITDA. The top of the range was 36% EBITDA growth and they are tracking towards this upper figure. Forward looking PE's are going to be lower than historical one's.

Disc Holding

[sb9]

Someone gobbled up two big lots at 1.05.

[winner69]

Like the way they talking about the new space age

[Muse]

so do I - scrummy. Wish I had a bigger holding. History less an overhang for me than questions around the sustainability of current earnings. If they mgmt could flesh that out a bit I think investors would start piling in

[moimoi]

Interesting to see Broadcom's quarterly results overnight. Their Infrastructure Division revenue (5G infrastructure, Cloud, Broadband) was up $700m quarter on quarter.

Right in RAK's wheelhouse and possible outside confirmation of how well they'll be doing currently.

[sb9]

Interesting to see Broadcom's quarterly results overnight. Their Infrastructure Division revenue (5G infrastructure, Cloud, Broadband) was up $700m quarter on quarter.

Right in RAK's wheelhouse and possible outside confirmation of how well they'll be doing currently.

Someone is very keen to build position here by the looks.

[moimoi]

Back in Nov 08 RAK opened @ $1.05 and closed the week @ $1.40.

So when she goes she can really go.....

[SPC]

Yes and they went well into the high $4 once too and they went...bang.
Circa 15c was my best buy.

[macduffy]

Yes and they went well into the high $4 once too and they went...bang.
Circa 15c was my best buy.

Is that surprising? I know nothing about the microchip manufacturing business but notice that the boss of Vauxhall (UK) reckons the shortage will be over by November. Of course, he could have just been talking his book!

[Scrunch]

I was thinking the same thing.

There was quite a large list of sellers at 97-100 that are progressively being met. This known availability of stock is decreasing with 93k at $1.00

There will no-doubt be sellers waiting until its over a dollar to put in their sell orders, but what volume will be available and at what price?

Disc holding

Well by the end of the week, it was buyers at 1.09 and sellers at 1.10 with a good volume during the day of 855k shares ($937k)
During the day RAK touched 1.12 a few times, but I'm not sure what volume was done at this price. The daily WA was 1.095
Onwards and upwards again next week?

[sb9]

Well by the end of the week, it was buyers at 1.09 and sellers at 1.10 with a good volume during the day of 855k shares ($937k)
During the day RAK touched 1.12 a few times, but I'm not sure what volume was done at this price. The daily WA was 1.095
Onwards and upwards again next week?

Seem to be continuing upward trajectory from last week currently at 1.11 with about 350K shares traded so far.

[Shareguy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379979

Yes. Yes . Yes

[Scrunch]

Seem to be continuing upward trajectory from last week currently at 1.11 with about 350K shares traded so far.

What an upgrade today. From $27-32m EBITDA and at the top end to $39-44m.

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/379979

Yes. Yes . Yes

Man, that's some upgrade..

"Rakon now expects to achieve Underlying EBITDA in the range of $39 million-$44 million in FY2022. This is higher than the guidance provided on 1 April 2021 of $27 million-$32 million"

[Shareguy]

Yes it’s only the start. $2 here we come.

[Neophyte]

Man, that's some upgrade..

"Rakon now expects to achieve Underlying EBITDA in the range of $39 million-$44 million in FY2022. This is higher than the guidance provided on 1 April 2021 of $27 million-$32 million"


This is remarkable. FY21 EBITDA of $23.5m delivered NPAT of $9.6m - 41% margin. Assuming a similar margin, the mid-point of the upgraded guidance would deliver NPAT of $17m, a current forward P/e of just 15

If we assume the 'IDA' of EBITDA remains the same as last year FY22 NPAT would be $22m, a forward P/e of just 11.

a P/e of 25 would give $2.50, easily achievable for a company that grew EBITDA 59% last year and forecasting 75% growth this year. The growth is backed by substantial tailwinds in multiple sectors they sell products into with Space/satellite and communications/5G receiving huge investment

[Mel]

Yes, large EBITDA upgrade....bodes well for them after a significant period of under-achievement! Transforming what was a reasonable loss for me last year to a good gain now at today's prices.
Discl: long term holder (over a decade!)

[Rawz]

Yes, large EBITDA upgrade....bodes well for them after a significant period of under-achievement! Transforming what was a reasonable loss for me last year to a good gain now at today's prices.
Discl: long term holder (over a decade!)

Wow a decade. You definitely deserve this run up in the SP. Very patient holder

[macduffy]

Impressive!

Good to see international reporting of a shortage of microchips benefitting a local company!

:)

[Muse]

Yes, large EBITDA upgrade....bodes well for them after a significant period of under-achievement! Transforming what was a reasonable loss for me last year to a good gain now at today's prices.
Discl: long term holder (over a decade!)

with decade long shareholdings at least you shouldn't have an argument with the taxman on if you are a capital account or revenue account holder. Good on you.

[RGR367]

Glad that I was reading the notice earlier as otherwise my sell order on half of my holding sitting there for more than a week now would have been taken at just 125. Just the right time to think about this Lazarus of stock that has finally risen :p

disc: holder since IPO

[mikelee]

Glad that I was reading the notice earlier as otherwise my sell order on half of my holding sitting there for more than a week now would have been taken at just 125. Just the right time to think about this Lazarus of stock that has finally risen :p

disc: holder since IPO

Wow! Holding since IPO?! Wasn't the SP over $5 at some stage? :eek2:

[sb9]

This is remarkable. FY21 EBITDA of $23.5m delivered NPAT of $9.6m - 41% margin. Assuming a similar margin, the mid-point of the upgraded guidance would deliver NPAT of $17m, a current forward P/e of just 13

If we assume the 'IDA' of EBITDA remains the same as last year FY22 NPAT would be $22m, a forward P/e of just 10.

a P/e of 25 would give $2.50, easily achievable for a company that grew EBITDA 59% last year and forecasting 75% growth this year. The growth is backed by substantial tailwinds in multiple sectors they sell products into with Space/satellite and communications/5G receiving huge investment

Nicely summed up. Was hoping that it'll pull back this arvo, so that I could another top up opportunity, but so far seem to be holding strong in an otherwise weak market overall.

[Muse]

Great interview with Brent and long article on Rakon on the NBR this afternoon. Good messages delivered and good to see some effort in front footing this success. With EBITDA at say $44m when does this company deserve some bloody analyst coverage again??? There are so many loss making company and those making half the earnings of Rakon with coverage at the big investment banks. I obviously have a vested interest as a minor shareholder but I suggest to those shareholders with a relationship with say a Craigs or Jarden or whoever you mention to your contacts they should instate research coverage.

[Shareguy]

The CFO Anand in a email to me last week stated they were actively trying to get coverage. With the last upgrade I suggest that they have indeed been noticed and we won’t have long to wait.

[sb9]

Great interview with Brent and long article on Rakon on the NBR this afternoon. Good messages delivered and good to see some effort in front footing this success. With EBITDA at say $44m when does this company deserve some bloody analyst coverage again??? There are so many loss making company and those making half the earnings of Rakon with coverage at the big investment banks. I obviously have a vested interest as a minor shareholder but I suggest to those shareholders with a relationship with say a Craigs or Jarden or whoever you mention to your contacts they should instate research coverage.

I was bit sceptical about Brent's ability until I heard first time at the ASM last month and was truly blown away by his depth, technical knowledge about the industry they operate in. Partly the reason why Analysts do not cover this stock is due to their past chequered history which I'm sure investors from IPO time can vouch for. They surely have learnt their lessons and now operate as a great outfit true to creating value to shareholders. Unfortunately markets have long memories and it'll probably take one broker firm to start coverage, hopefully their latest announcement yesterday would have turned a corner.

[SPC]

I've owned RAK since the IPO days around 2006 when the family went public around $1.50 thereabouts. The family kept a large chunk in the family. It wasn't their fault nor very helpful that the 'market' saw things that were never there and the share price went on an insane trajectory to around $5. It sank to around 15c over the following years due to hopes and dreams that never materialised, currency management issues, rapid commodisation of specialist products, forays into offshore manufacturing ventures that didn't work out and just a general inability to make consistent profits and offer external shareholders any return for the risk. It should never have listed.
IMO from the get go the Board wasn't sufficiently independent or broad enough in global business experience to challenge the direction of the business and executive thinking (family weighted) and the results have been evident.
No question that the intellectual property is first rate but in the end it's about making money. So after 16 years we begin to see signs of hope... apparently built on the backs of a competitor mishap (fire).. hmmmm ..and we are told that this bit of luck will be transitory. Is this really a moment of great pride?.
Owning RAK has taught me a lot about investment. I still own it but the experience gained was used to cover my losses with better investments in better companies.
Good luck with the next leap forward in SP but I figure to most it's just a trade now.

[sb9]

This run up is relentless, I may have missed my top up opportunity for now, never mind :p

[RGR367]

This run up is relentless, I may have missed my top up opportunity for now, never mind :p

And as per ASB, there are no more sellers showing after 2 bucks. It's really looking good now.

[Mel]

The CFO Anand in a email to me last week stated they were actively trying to get coverage. With the last upgrade I suggest that they have indeed been noticed and we won’t have long to wait.
Yes, they've previously mentioned on their investor call that they have been actively pursuing getting broker coverage.

[Nevl]

How much of this was due to good management and not good luck? After all they were not responsible for the fire(hopefully) nor the car companies cancelling then redoubling orders, nor the covid lockdowns forcing a sharp jump in tech spendin.

Anyway happy to see nice gains but how much of this is due to Rakon management and not luck. After all they sold a lot of excess inventory that up until last year was proably going to be written off and dumped.

[Mel]

I've owned RAK since the IPO days around 2006 when the family went public around $1.50 thereabouts. The family kept a large chunk in the family. It wasn't their fault nor very helpful that the 'market' saw things that were never there and the share price went on an insane trajectory to around $5. It sank to around 15c over the following years due to hopes and dreams that never materialised, currency management issues, rapid commodisation of specialist products, forays into offshore manufacturing ventures that didn't work out and just a general inability to make consistent profits and offer external shareholders any return for the risk. It should never have listed.
IMO from the get go the Board wasn't sufficiently independent or broad enough in global business experience to challenge the direction of the business and executive thinking (family weighted) and the results have been evident.
No question that the intellectual property is first rate but in the end it's about making money. So after 16 years we begin to see signs of hope... apparently built on the backs of a competitor mishap (fire).. hmmmm ..and we are told that this bit of luck will be transitory. Is this really a moment of great pride?.
Owning RAK has taught me a lot about investment. I still own it but the experience gained was used to cover my losses with better investments in better companies.
Good luck with the next leap forward in SP but I figure to most it's just a trade now.
Yes, I too have been on a roller-coaster ride with RAK. However the current 'transitory' environment provides them with the opportunity (to be capitalised on) to deliver their product to a wider customer base (current and new customers), cement their position with their growing customer base, and grow their profile within each of the sectors they play in.

[moimoi]

The ability to rapidly increase production of a type of TCXO, while navigating widespread component shortages, "like it or lump it" shipping cartel pricing behaviour, in the midst of a global pandemic, perhaps a pretty good reflection on the Staff and Management.

(But near enough a 100 of the 180 page's of the posting history here suggests it's always been a tough school for RAK Management on Sharetrader)

While the fire @ the AKM Factory may be providing a transitory boost the ongoing demand from the above customers seeking a second source of supply to mitigate the risk of being supplied from one factory in Japan won't be.

RAK's core business in 5G, and the demand for Rakon applications in datacentres, industrial positioning and new space is arguably just coming to its long awaited fruition. (Listen to the Peter Beck podcast on Sharesies to hear where he thinks the LEO space arena is going)

10 years growth in front of RAK imo.

A maiden divi now appears confirmed with the earnings guidance upgrade.

Difficult to know if analyst coverage of RAK would be a benefit or not. Clearly the share price has been oscillating on an upward frequency of its own the past 18 months without any.... ;-)

Hopefully the recent share price trajectory is also providing assistance to the ESOP Trustee plan for Employee's.

GLTA.

[sb9]

On a tear here, 1.50 beckoning.

[LoungeLizzard]

On a tear here, 1.50 beckoning.

Thought SP was getting ahead of itself a few days ago, and thought about selling and waiting for the dip, but it's been relentless since. Glad I didn't!

[whatsup]

There she goes $1-50 wasnt too long ago that it was .29 !!!!!!

[pg0220]

wow, I'm regretting that I didn't buy more :'(

[Muse]

wow, I'm regretting that I didn't buy more :'(

You and me both buddy!
Aside from our lack of vision one has to be pleased the price has been bid up on pretty robust volumes too.

[sb9]

Upward momentum pretty strong and seems on course to $2 mark.

[LoungeLizzard]

We have lift-off! Really wish I'd bought more than just a measly 50k....

[Rawz]

I tried to limit buy at $1.12 and just missed out. Very painful watching it go up and up and up up up up uppppp

Have now put in a market buy.. knowing my luck it will pullback just as my order is filled..

[sb9]

Some fund/funds are keen to accumulate here and happy to pay higher highs. Be interesting to see when SSH notice comes out eventually.

[Rawz]

I tried to limit buy at $1.12 and just missed out. Very painful watching it go up and up and up up up up uppppp

Have now put in a market buy.. knowing my luck it will pullback just as my order is filled..

Down 5% today. What kind of sick joke is this?

[Muse]

Down 5% today. What kind of sick joke is this?

Haha oh dear. Box of chocolates…

[SPC]

Just normal 'oscillations' with this stock.

[nztx]

I tried to limit buy at $1.12 and just missed out. Very painful watching it go up and up and up up up up uppppp

Have now put in a market buy.. knowing my luck it will pullback just as my order is filled..



Huh - aren't you only about 14 days behind the SP action ? ;)

If you hold your horses it just may come back to meet you .. ;)

[Shareguy]

I think it’s just a breather and the rise to $2 will continue. Still good volume. I’m expecting some disclosure notices coming out soon.

[winner69]

Heard that RAK current share price still shy of the $1.60 initial public offering price back in 2006 and well off the $5.80 peak a year later.

So not really blue sky ahead - its been there before - just recovering its former glory

[nztx]

Is a dividend on the horizon yet .. or still too soon ? ;)

[winner69]

Is a dividend on the horizon yet .. or still too soon ? ;)

Don’t think dividend is a word Rakon knows

Anyway why would they want to pay a divie?

[Muse]

Don’t think dividend is a word Rakon knows

Anyway why would they want to pay a divie?

They pretty much committed to paying one (at year end) if they met guidance they pointed to at the beginning of the year. They have now upgraded guidance again so I’d say its coming.

As to why - well its not something tech companies typically do, but it signals the corner has turned, that the board has listened to calls from shareholders, and perhaps a new chapter in the life of Rakom.

[nztx]

Don’t think dividend is a word Rakon knows

Anyway why would they want to pay a divie?



Didn't they suggest there a large pot of readies & untold wealth not seen by RAK for yonks now forecast to be coming in soon ? ;)

[winner69]

At least they have 11m of imputation credits

[nztx]

At least they have 11m of imputation credits


that's for sure .. must have been making some 'real' taxable surpluses along the way :)

[Shareguy]

Given the size of the recent upgrade I would’ve thought there was a high probability for the first dividend. Not expecting a lot though for the maiden. The start of hopefully a constant stream of increased profits. $2 not far away, then who no’s. Will be a lot of interest in the result and I would expect market coverage to start soon after which will be a game changer. Exciting times ahead.

[sb9]

They’ve surely committed to some divvy payout as per ASM discussions. Hopefully sp would’ve crossed $2 mark by then.

[Scrunch]

Don’t think dividend is a word Rakon knows

Anyway why would they want to pay a divie?

They know the word and since Nov 2019 they have been dangling the dividend carrot.
Nov2019: "The Directors have declared that no dividend is to be paid for the interim period to 30 September 2019. Rakon maintains a dividend policy such that it will pay a dividend of up to 50% of the after tax profit, if considered fiscally appropriate. The payment of dividends is subject to the approval of Rakon's bank, ASB Bank, under its facility arrangement."

Jun2020: "The Board of Directors has declared that no dividend is to be paid for 2020. Rakon maintains a dividend policy such that it will pay a dividend of up to 50% of the after tax profit, if considered fiscally appropriate. The payment of dividends is subject to the approval of Rakon's bank, ASB Bank, under its facility arrangement."

Nov2020: "The Directors have declared that no dividend is to be paid for the interim period to 30 September 2020. Rakon maintains a dividend policy such that it will pay a dividend of up to 50% of the after tax profit, if considered fiscally appropriate. The payment of dividends is subject to the approval of Rakon's bank, ASB Bank, under its facility arrangement."

May2021: "Mr Robinson said the company would continue to maintain a conservative balance sheet as it manages ongoing uncertainties and risks, and looks to consolidate its improved performance and reserves in FY2022. Accordingly, Directors have determined not to declare a dividend for the period to 31 March 2021."

[Wai Wai]

The board of Rakon has headed off shareholder disquiet at its annual general meeting in Auckland today by promising them a dividend at the end of the 2022 financial year (March 2022), if forecast results are met and no significant unexpected costs arise. NBR 12/8/2021

[carrom74]

Dropping from highs of $1.68 to $1.47 now...

May be a good buying opportunity before the results on Nov 25.

Chip shortage is still around....

Good turnaround story so far

[Muse]

Dropping from highs of $1.68 to $1.47 now...

May be a good buying opportunity before the results on Nov 25.

Chip shortage is still around....

Good turnaround story so far

Aye its the normal price cycle for this coy: slight increase before announcement, large increase post announcement, long steady downward drift after the SP pop, and repeat.

[Sideshow Bob]

Rakon upgrades earnings guidance - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/382746)

12 November 2021
Rakon upgrades earnings guidance

Rakon (NZX: RAK), a world leader in the provision of advanced frequency control and timing solutions, today announces a further upgrade to its earnings guidance for the year ending 31 March 2022 (FY2022).

Rakon now expects to achieve Underlying EBITDA of $44 million to $49 million in FY2022. This is an upgrade to the earlier guidance of $39 million to $44 million provided on 29 September 2021.

Managing Director Brent Robinson said the increase in Rakon’s FY2022 expected revenue and earnings reflects the certainty of two additional months of good performance, a strong order book for the remainder of FY2022 and some narrowing of the supply chain risk window affecting the availability of materials and parts.
Mr Robinson said Rakon was able to work through the considerable uncertainties regarding manufacturing capacity, procurement of raw materials and parts, adapting design specifications and other resource requirements it faced in the first half and has delivered greater than expected volumes of higher margin product in September and October.

For the remaining period, we have an increased level of orders from Tier One telecommunications customers for Rakon products for 5G network equipment and continued delivery against the significant long term orders previously secured due to the world-wide chip shortage. However, the prevailing supply volatility and cost pressures facing the global electronics industry mean there is still significant risk in securing raw materials and parts to meet orders. These challenges are requiring management on a month-to-month basis.

The business is expected to perform well through FY2022 provided Rakon is able to manage the supply chain risks and maintain capacity and avoid COVID-19 related disruptions at its manufacturing sites.

Rakon will provide its financial results for the half year ended 30 September 2021 on Thursday 25 November 2021.

[Shareguy]

A couple of months go by and another upgrade. I’m thinking the divi is in the bag. $2.00 here we come

[Muse]

Haha wicked. Just ran some numbers, using guidance midpoint and high end, last close price of 1.48, and last reported net debt of 5 million net cash (15m cash, 10m debt). Used historical figures and extrapolated up for depreciation, amortisation, interest and tax to calculate PE and EV/EBIT.

EV/EBITDA; 7.3x midpoint / 6.9x high
EV/EBIT: 9.7x mid / 9.0x high
PE: 12x mid / 11.2x high

These are reasonable figures. Issue is no one has a good feel for what maintainable earnings are after this boom and shortage of oscillators. Core 5g and maintainable demand for its TXCO products will be interesting, but these low multiples suggest that priced in. We will get a divvy and some decent upside from here, in my opinion, certainly not advice. Happy holder.

[Shareguy]

Good info Fiordland Moose. Currently trading at a very modest PE.

[Rawz]

Haha wicked. Just ran some numbers, using guidance midpoint and high end, last close price of 1.48, and last reported net debt of 5 million net cash (15m cash, 10m debt). Used historical figures and extrapolated up for depreciation, amortisation, interest and tax to calculate PE and EV/EBIT.

EV/EBITDA; 7.3x midpoint / 6.9x high
EV/EBIT: 9.7x mid / 9.0x high
PE: 12x mid / 11.2x high

These are reasonable figures. Issue is no one has a good feel for what maintainable earnings are after this boom and shortage of oscillators. Core 5g and maintainable demand for its TXCO products will be interesting, but these low multiples suggest that priced in. We will get a divvy and some decent upside from here, in my opinion, certainly not advice. Happy holder.

Bang on the money Fiordland Moose.

Happy to hold

[moimoi]

""...has delivered greater than expected volumes of higher margin product in September and October.""

""..continued delivery against the significant long term orders previously secured due to the world-wide chip shortage"

Knocking it out of the park..

A classy effort by the whole RAK team.

[Wai Wai]

Not so long ago (July) Siward sold down 10 million shares at 88 cents per share offering leading Kiwi fund managers and institutions the opportunity to invest.
Maybe one chose to invest while ACC have steadily reduced their holding in Rakon from around 7.6 million shares to the current 5.6 million.
And still no broker research.
It appears our leading brokers and fund managers have yet to exorcise memories of Rakon’s pre 2019 performances.
That is sad.
EROAD EV/EBITDA 17,SAN EV/EBITDA 14 (NZX top 50)NZX EV/EBITDA 18 (NZX top 50)

[SPC]

Those pre 2019 memories are held with good reason. 14 years of continuous disappointment and zero dividends are difficult to erase. Leopards do not change their spots. One swallow doesn't make a spring. Misplaced euphoria by recent investors in my view. Holder since 2006.
There's always a cloud around the corner with the this co. I'm watching on with wry smile...

[Scrunch]

Those pre 2019 memories are held with good reason. 14 years of continuous disappointment and zero dividends are difficult to erase. Leopards do not change their spots. One swallow doesn't make a spring. Misplaced euphoria by recent investors in my view. Holder since 2006.
There's always a cloud around the corner with the this co. I'm watching on with wry smile...

If there wasn't a cloud around the corner, the approximate doubling of EBITDA in one year would command a lot higher earnings multiple than currently exists. The bit that is really hard to gauge is how much of the forecast result is an on-going long term position, how much is increased profits fro a few years and how much (if any) is just a 2021/22 spike.

Disc back to a free carry position.

[macduffy]

I'll just ride the trend for now - and await developments.

:cool:

[moimoi]

Those pre 2019 memories are held with good reason. 14 years of continuous disappointment and zero dividends are difficult to erase. Leopards do not change their spots. One swallow doesn't make a spring. Misplaced euphoria by recent investors in my view. Holder since 2006....

Given your negative view why have you continued to hold through the 14 years.?

Why would you do that to yourself...are you trying to teach yourself a lesson or what.?

GLTA

[SPC]

I was waiting for that question.
It's a minor part of my portfolio these days mainly through the hard lesson it taught me not to follow the herd and the hype of IPOs and much better choices in the years that followed that made the earlier loses (eventually) irrelevant within a broader portfolio. The problem was never the technology or IP. It was as the management in my view. I paid 15c for many of these shares in the darkest hours so believe me I haven't lost.
It has been pointed out by myself and others that current fortunes seem to be founded in a competitor mishap and company comments also infur that the good luck may pass with time.
I won't be holding it forever but for the time being it'll reward my patience.
I bought it alongside FPH in the early days. These guys were never twins...

[carrom74]

Not so long ago (July) Siward sold down 10 million shares at 88 cents per share offering leading Kiwi fund managers and institutions the opportunity to invest.
Maybe one chose to invest while ACC have steadily reduced their holding in Rakon from around 7.6 million shares to the current 5.6 million.
And still no broker research.
It appears our leading brokers and fund managers have yet to exorcise memories of RakonÂ’s pre 2019 performances.
That is sad.
EROAD EV/EBITDA 17,SAN EV/EBITDA 14 (NZX top 50)NZX EV/EBITDA 18 (NZX top 50)

Leave alone analyst research..look how many of us actually discuss this stock in this forum(in comparison to its NZX peers)That will say a lot too. Not many companies have had such a successful and dare I say “fortunate” turnaround stories in this covid infested market!

I did ask about the analyst coverage to Bruce in the ASM couple of years agoÂ… and the answer was the most evasive I can think of..

Disc- HolderÂ…only just.

[SPC]

It's essentially a family business struggling to operate as a public company IMO.
From the get go they should have appointed an experienced Tech CEO with international experience in strategic planning and international marketing while the company founders kept themselves to the tech side and IP which is their true passion and key contribution. The key to success is knowing what you don't know and hiring people who do. International currency management for a start.
It may eventually redeem itself but history will not judge it kindly. It reminds me very much of the final years of FPA as a listed company, held that too. It struggled with similar issues. Promotion from within sometimes prevents a clean clear-headed external view on where the company sits in its market. Which is where competent Directors have an important role.

[Ex-CFO]

I totally agreed with your view that the owner operator need to focus on his passion and let someone with a management skill to run the business. However, I like the conservative approach toward EBIDA guidance to avoid share price crashes if things went wrong. Plenty of warning is also given in their releases. I gave RAK an A+ for their guidance release and regular upgrade as they bagged their profit in the current uncertain environment. I expect them to reduce or pay off their debts with their cash flow this year. It is prudent not to borrow just to pay a dividend to keep the shareholder happy.

[sb9]

Seems as though seller (mostly likely ACC) is either closed to sell down or paused for a while now.

[sb9]

At this rate we could hit $2 by this side of new year :t_up:

[Ex-CFO]

Why would ACC sell after two upgrades on EBITDA. They have the best fund managers in their team.

[RGR367]

At this rate we could hit $2 by this side of new year :t_up:

Yup. I placed a small bundle for sale more than 2 weeks ago and got sold at the high price today.

[Wai Wai]

ACC also sold millions of NZR between 41cents and 90cents and still going Great fund managing when NZR look to be showing significant EBITDA with prospect of a dividend following conversion to a tolling piece of essential infrastructure backed by 10 year user contracts

[sb9]

ACC also sold millions of NZR between 41cents and 90cents and still going Great fund managing when NZR look to be showing significant EBITDA with prospect of a dividend following conversion to a tolling piece of essential infrastructure backed by 10 year user contracts

May I also add MHJ to their list as well. Anyway, let's get back to RAK.

[winner69]

ACC own some of almost everything on the NZX …..can’t let things get too far out of balance (weightings) …..active to some extent but they are not punters …..might end up losing too much on some ‘punts’ and put bonuses at risk

[sb9]

Big wall being put up at 1.80, see if that can broken at close today.

[Aanvil]

Could be back into the top 50 at this rate.

[Muse]

yeah lets just hope their arent any insider sales

[carrom74]

Wishful thinking----Amazon or AKM picking up a stake...:)

[Aanvil]

Yeah free float a bit on the low side unfortunately

[SPC]

Robinson family holdings too large.
Unlikely to change.

[moimoi]

Why would ACC sell after two upgrades on EBITDA. They have the best fund managers in their team.

Think you'll find its Govt mandated. All Govt investment funds have to be out of anything nasty or unclean by 1 December... (ESG requirement...RAK's Space products division, although not the major part of the business, may have triggered the requirement)

[SPC]

If that's the case I expect the Gumit to dispose of Pamu farms due to its dairy portfolio and the issues with that food stream on the famous 3 Waters. Or infant formula to China lest it be consumed by the children of Uighur detention guards. More than likely ACC are just getting some money back. After a very long wait..

[sb9]

Robinson family holdings too large.
Unlikely to change.

And Siward still hold 12% after their recent selldown in July this year. Boy, they left a cool $10ml (almost) on the table from their sell down price of 88c to current 1.84 (as I type).

Someone mopping most of free float available on market.

[Shareguy]

$1.90 now and I’m sure by Friday will be over the $2.00 mark. Well done to holders.

[Ex-CFO]

It might hit $2 before the half year announcement on Thursday. The momentum is still very strong. The next one to run might be PEB with a new CEO. :)

[LoungeLizzard]

It might hit $2 before the half year announcement on Thursday. The momentum is still very strong. The next one to run might be PEB with a new CEO. :)

Yep, I think my lucky stars I decided to run with both RAK and PEB. More than makes up for PX1 ;)

[Shareguy]

A stunner first half as expected, but no divi.

EPS 8.3c so let’s be conservative and say FY22 16c = PE 11

Worth well over $2 will it get there today ….

[Muse]

all the pistons firing at rakon

[sb9]

A stunner first half as expected, but no divi.

EPS 8.3c so let’s be conservative and say FY22 16c = PE 11

Worth well over $2 will it get there today ….

Great result, don't think divvy was on cards for 1H more so at end of FY.

[Sparky669]

A stunner first half as expected, but no divi.

EPS 8.3c so let’s be conservative and say FY22 16c = PE 11

Worth well over $2 will it get there today ….


A bit of dropping down atm, wonder if it was because some holders are disappointed with no divi?

[carrom74]

Looks like a dump. Someone big holder seeing off the new highs.. $2 had to wait I guess…

[Scrunch]

Looks like a dump. Someone big holder seeing off the new highs.. $2 had to wait I guess…

Some holders may have expected more growth in telecommunications ($38m to $42m) where the gross margin "only" grew from $16m to $18m. Some may have expected a bigger increase in cash. These investors are not however the one's likely to set the long-term price, they may however have a short-term impact on the price.

Long-term, which segments were going backwards - None went backwards and a few areas were flat

When people look back in a week, a month, or even a few years the key is going to be $18.9m net profit after tax for the half year. Rakon has a long history of adjustments meaning the EBITDA* to NPAT gap is wider than expected. This doesn't appear to be the case on a quick look. Also with EBITDA of $26m for the half year, the EBITDA guidance range looks very achievable.

[Ex-CFO]

I would not recommend a dividend at this stage especially the net cash position is only $3.6m. I expect the share price to go back up again. Look like some shareholders didnt like it because:
1. no dividend
2. net cash position going backward
3. high R&D cost for first half
4. no disclosure on its debt position.

I agreed that the PE is too low and so is the market capital base on its revenue. I have increased my holding this morning based on my own forecast of revenue.


A stunner first half as expected, but no divi.

EPS 8.3c so let’s be conservative and say FY22 16c = PE 11

Worth well over $2 will it get there today ….

[Muse]

I would not recommend a dividend at this stage especially the net cash position is only $3.6m. I expect the share price to go back up again. Look like some shareholders didnt like it because:
1. no dividend
2. net cash position going backward
3. high R&D cost for first half
4. no disclosure on its debt position.

I agreed that the PE is too low and so is the market capital base on its revenue. I have increased my holding this morning based on my own forecast of revenue.

It's the quirk of the NZ market everyone goes mental about dividends. It couldn't be more clear that any dividend if paid won't be done until after the completion of the financial year so if investors are getting upset about it that is their own issue!

Rakon has been and will always be fairly working capital intensive. So there will always be a lag from the time of earnings to actual cashflow - a lot of it is tied up in debtors and pre built inventory levels. If growth levels off or slows you will see large cash inflows. So the good news is from a theoretical cashflow/dcf position all the cashflow from 1H earnings is still to come if you bought at todays dip.

For an ex CFO was a bit surprised on your comment on "no disclosure on its debt position." That is also crystal clear. "Net cash" refers to gross cash balances less gross interest bearing debt balances. And if thats not enough - you have the interim report balance sheet. note the nalance sheet on page 4: cash of 19,932 less bank OD of 4 less current borrowings of 615 less non current borrowings of 15718 = net cash of 3,595 which reconciles to the press release and mgmt presso. For good measure for my own calcs i'd probably toss in the out of the money derivative financial instruments - reduces net cash by another ~1.2m.

But as the NWC profile unwinds you will see a massive inflow of cash. Unless Rakons revenue keeps rocketing up which will be a high class problem.

[Ex-CFO]

Sorry I didnt look into the half year report an oversight in my part. I suspect lots of people like myself just look at the market annoucement without looking into the detail half year report.

It's the quirk of the NZ market everyone goes mental about dividends. It couldn't be more clear that any dividend if paid won't be done until after the completion of the financial year so if investors are getting upset about it that is their own issue!

Rakon has been and will always be fairly working capital intensive. So there will always be a lag from the time of earnings to actual cashflow - a lot of it is tied up in debtors and pre built inventory levels. If growth levels off or slows you will see large cash inflows. So the good news is from a theoretical cashflow/dcf position all the cashflow from 1H earnings is still to come if you bought at todays dip.

For an ex CFO was a bit surprised on your comment on "no disclosure on its debt position." That is also crystal clear. "Net cash" refers to gross cash balances less gross interest bearing debt balances. And if thats not enough - you have the interim report balance sheet. note the nalance sheet on page 4: cash of 19,932 less bank OD of 4 less current borrowings of 615 less non current borrowings of 15718 = net cash of 3,595 which reconciles to the press release and mgmt presso. For good measure for my own calcs i'd probably toss in the out of the money derivative financial instruments - reduces net cash by another ~1.2m.

But as the NWC profile unwinds you will see a massive inflow of cash. Unless Rakons revenue keeps rocketing up which will be a high class problem.

[carrom74]

I was listening to the analysts call today and the CEO dropped a hint at $55 M EBITDA for the year end, provided all components could be sourced and procured. I think they are very conservative and play very safe. Hold on guys the stock is very undervalued imo

[Sparky669]

I was listening to the analysts call today and the CEO dropped a hint at $55 M EBITDA for the year end, provided all components could be sourced and procured. I think they are very conservative and play very safe. Hold on guys the stock is very undervalued imo

Nothing wrong with playing safe and being conservative. I have the confidence in Rak, should never changed my idea and bought PX1 right before the PX1 announcement! Waste of bullets! Added my holdings in RAK this morning any way, good to see the biddings at 1.73 is forming up.

[Shareguy]

I was listening to the analysts call today and the CEO dropped a hint at $55 M EBITDA for the year end, provided all components could be sourced and procured. I think they are very conservative and play very safe. Hold on guys the stock is very undervalued imo

That surprises me when they just confirmed in today’s announcement that guidance is maintained at $44 to $49m. It highlights that we are going to be in for a good year.

[Mel]

That surprises me when they just confirmed in today’s announcement that guidance is maintained at $44 to $49m. It highlights that we are going to be in for a good year.
It highlights the risk of securing the relevant stock to realise the sales orders/revenue - remembering that RAK components are highly specialised and possibly sourced via a single supplier. The overall outllook is that the EBITDA forecast will be exceeded if stock can be secured. The future looks bright!

[Muse]

Just some thursday arvo musings on rakon valuation. not advice and back of envelope calcs, as I see them. As lease charges aren't include within underlying EBITDA (they are now captured elsewhere) important to include lease liabilities as a net debt equivalent to merry up the numerator and denominator when looking at valuation multiples (thanks IFRS). The multiples are interesting from a current year perspective but its more interesting on how earnings evolve after the chip shortage and then where they wind up in 5 years. The biggest thing here is what management are trying to guide us towards on page 7 of the investor presentation. They expect their total addressable market to grow at a 12.1% annual compound rate from US$650m to $1.15bn by FY26, and within that capture marketshare particularly within its industrial segment. They don't provide specific figures but lets say +15% annual compound growth over 5 years. Pretty good. BUT - we know revenue in FY22 will be a lot higher than 15% - half year is already up 43% so lets just simply assume full year revenue is up 43%. That would put rakon in FY22 at about 2.5 years into its expected CAGR in just 1 year. We know there is a huge shortage of chips which is helping but that could well change in 18 months into a glut. What I fully expect and what I thnk rakon is guiding us to is expect revenue and earnings to stall and go backwards in the 1-2 years after FY22 is complete. The market will hate that and its share price will fall but management are guiding us (in my view) that the company will simply revert to trend and revenues and earnings will be quite a bit higher in 5 years than they will be in FY22 - they just need to go through a gully first. I might do a little model and dcf. But won't share it until I make my decision on if or when to buy more :) It could well be after FY22 is complete and earnings stall or fall and so does the SP before it reverts to trend. ALL musings, I'm often wrong, and this is not advice - just had some free time today. and its a neat company.

See attachment for capitalisation calc and implied current year valuation multiples:

13248

[Shareguy]

Insert from NBR today which is interesting.

Auckland-based listed high-tech manufacturer Rakon appears to be reaching out in earnest to the investment community on the back of a string of consecutive positive financial results, with Forsyth Barr analysts on the company’s investor call this morning.
The move suggests Rakon has concurred with sentiment expressed by its small shareholders and analysis that has urged the company to purchase issuer-sponsored analyst research, raising its profile and potentially its value, and attracting more institutional investors onto its share registry.
Chief executive Brent Robinson confirmed to NBR the company had been "talking" to Forsyth Barr. He said, however, there had been engagement between the companies for a while and played down today's analyst questions as being a step-change for Rakon.
A spokesperson for Forsyth Barr said representation on a company conference call could be for a variety of different reasons, and "as a general rule, future stock coverage decisions are non-public".
At the least, the Forbar analysts were able to witness a stellar set of full-year results, with a significant growth in earnings and revenue in the first half-year to September, led by strong demand for the company’s telecommunications solutions, particularly in 5G networks and data centre equipment; and increasing demand for solutions to support industrial positioning products.

[Shareguy]

Great stuff from Fiordland Moose. Any way you look at this stock is still undervalued. Just like the shares that Rakon has on thier books of Thinxtra.

attachment for capitalisation calc and implied current year valuation multiples from Fiordland Moose post above

rakon.jpg (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=13248&d=1637805650)

[sb9]

I was listening to the analysts call today and the CEO dropped a hint at $55 M EBITDA for the year end, provided all components could be sourced and procured. I think they are very conservative and play very safe. Hold on guys the stock is very undervalued imo

Wonder if there's replay available somewhere.

Looks to be on very strong run to $2 with big buyer back today.

[Shareguy]

I’m thinking Forbar liked what they have seen and perhaps have some good intel with the “discussions” they had. Because someone’s buying up large. Next minute For bar releases the first analyst coverage for many years. Followed by a holder disclosure…

[Wai Wai]

Compare this NASDAQ listed company's fundamentals and valuation with our own Rakon

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/marvell-technology-breaks-away-from-the-pack-joining-the-list-of-must-own-semiconductor-stocks-11638544713

[ecuttel]

Nothing new but bit more Media coverage for Rakon

https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/the-detail/story/2018822977/global-microchip-shortage-boosts-niche-business

[sb9]

Nice to move...Sinan as new CEO from next year,

Rakon (NZX: RAK), an international leader in frequency control and timing solutions, today announces Chief Operating Officer Dr Sinan Altug will succeed Brent Robinson as Rakon’s Chief Executive Officer from 1 April 2022.

[black knat]

Nice to move...Sinan as new CEO from next year,

Rakon (NZX: RAK), an international leader in frequency control and timing solutions, today announces Chief Operating Officer Dr Sinan Altug will succeed Brent Robinson as Rakon’s Chief Executive Officer from 1 April 2022.

To be fair, the encouraging post covid turnaround in Rakon's business has occurred under Brent Robertson's leadership... with that said, I for one an delighted with this move away from the Roberson family which is essential for the company to continue to make progress. Thought there might be an immediate positive share price reaction... but not yet.

[Muse]

To be fair, the encouraging post covid turnaround in Rakon's business has occurred under Brent Robertson's leadership... with that said, I for one an delighted with this move away from the Roberson family which is essential for the company to continue to make progress. Thought there might be an immediate positive share price reaction... but not yet.

Good building block for the future.

[Shareguy]

Rakon has been one of the standouts on the NZX this year. I cant help wondering with the ceo change that Rakon are preparing for the eventual takeover. I for one think 2022 will be another great year with double digit returns for shareholders. Well done to holders

[Shareguy]

Forbar the first to start coverage with$2.26 tp on pe 22 of 13.2

ValuationA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach, supported by a comparables analysis, drives our NZ$2.26 per share spot valuation for RAK. Post the temporary COVID-19 related earnings uplift in FY22, this equates to 13.8x EV/EBITDA on our underlying FY23 earnings estimate. Key to forecasting earnings over the next year is RAK’s ability to:
Secure key components (especially in the 4Q22) to satisfy client orders Drive 5G revenue growth
Add manufacturing capacity in India
Gain market acceptance of its new LEO satellite

[winner69]

Forbar the first to start coverage with$2.26 tp on pe 22 of 13.2

ValuationA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach, supported by a comparables analysis, drives our NZ$2.26 per share spot valuation for RAK. Post the temporary COVID-19 related earnings uplift in FY22, this equates to 13.8x EV/EBITDA on our underlying FY23 earnings estimate. Key to forecasting earnings over the next year is RAK’s ability to:
Secure key components (especially in the 4Q22) to satisfy client orders Drive 5G revenue growth
Add manufacturing capacity in India
Gain market acceptance of its new LEO satellite

Forbar pretty good …this has probably put the kiss of death on RAK share price

[Muse]

Forbar the first to start coverage with$2.26 tp on pe 22 of 13.2

ValuationA Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) approach, supported by a comparables analysis, drives our NZ$2.26 per share spot valuation for RAK. Post the temporary COVID-19 related earnings uplift in FY22, this equates to 13.8x EV/EBITDA on our underlying FY23 earnings estimate. Key to forecasting earnings over the next year is RAK’s ability to:
Secure key components (especially in the 4Q22) to satisfy client orders Drive 5G revenue growth
Add manufacturing capacity in India
Gain market acceptance of its new LEO satellite

good work shareguy. another building block falls into place.

[Shareguy]

The Kiwi tech company whose share price is being picked to rise sharply
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-kiwi-tech-company-whose-share-price-is-being-picked-to-rise-sharply/4YJWT5UOIQHOHC5D4TE24R243Y/

[sb9]

The Kiwi tech company whose share price is being picked to rise sharply
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-kiwi-tech-company-whose-share-price-is-being-picked-to-rise-sharply/4YJWT5UOIQHOHC5D4TE24R243Y/

With Omicron variant creating havoc, don't think the chip shortage is going to ease anytime soon.

[Mel]

The Kiwi tech company whose share price is being picked to rise sharply
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-kiwi-tech-company-whose-share-price-is-being-picked-to-rise-sharply/4YJWT5UOIQHOHC5D4TE24R243Y/
Interestingly, the FB analyst is recommending that RAK not make any dividend payments in FY22 or FY23 - and reinvest back into the business instead. As a long-standing investor who is finally in the black (by a significant margin now), I'm OK with that given the medium term forecast, as I have the option of liquidating in the near future or continuing to hold longer term - both options are attractive.

[Ex-CFO]

It make sense. If I am the CFO I would recommend : 1. pay off the debts, 2. keep the cash back for expansion and R&D that has the potential to increase revenue, 3. looking to grow by acquisition

[Ex-CFO]

Three scenarios presented by Forsyth Barr:
FY22 forecastsConcern about sourcing sufficient supplies of componentry inputs has been highlighted by management. 4Q22 will be exceptionallytight regarding raw material and parts supplies and offers a real risk of disrupting 2H22 sales. We believe customer orders are there,if adequate raw material supplies can be sourced in time. Delivery timeframes for component suppliers has extended out from anormal one to three months, out to five to ten months or more, compounding the issue. Our estimates for FY22 are:Base case — We have factored in partial disruption of 4Q22 sales into our BASE CASE. We forecast FY22 revenues of NZ$172.5mand underlying EBITDA of NZ$49.4m. Our underlying EBITDA forecast is marginally above management’s range and 6% ahead ofthe middle of management’s forecasts, we assume, on a mildly less negative view of the impact on 4Q22 trading from componentshortages. We believe that 5G and DC demand is there but can they source components in time?Upside case — Our no supply constraint revenue forecast is NZ$187.1m, producing underlying EBITDA of NZ$53.9m. This estimateof underlying EBITDA is +16% ahead of the middle of management’s current guidance range.Downside case — If 4Q22 supplies are more severely impacted and insufficient quantities of materials are sourced, this offerssignificant downside risk. If supply constraints make it impossible to fulfil half of our non-disrupted 4Q revenue forecast, oursignificant Q4 impact revenue forecast is NZ$165.6m, producing underlying EBITDA of NZ$44.0m. This lower underlying EBITDAforecast aligns with the lower end of management’s forecast expectations of underlying EBITDA of NZ$44.0m to NZ$49.0m

[Muse]

I think one of the key takeaways from the Forbar report is it further sheds light on the maintainability of a portion of Rakon's revenue and earnings. Rakon won in whats been described as a one off, opportunistic contract from a tier 1 provider within its Iot, Emerging & Other Division - which looks to have contributed an etra $28m in revenue and $18.6m in gross profit / EBITDA to the group result. Gross profit for this division have averaged around $1.1m historically and forbar forecast the same result going forward, whereas in FY22E it is forecast to be $19.7. It's possible Rak is awarded ongonig revenues from the customer after the contract but forbar don't assume it.

So one could argue ongoing maintainable EBITDA using FY22e as a base is $50m (guidance) less 18.6 = 31.4.

Still a nice trendline of growth from core operations > $14.5m (FY20) > 23.5m > 31.4m (f22 maintainable) > 37.5m (fy23 forbar estimate)

[Mel]

I think one of the key takeaways from the Forbar report is it further sheds light on the maintainability of a portion of Rakon's revenue and earnings. Rakon won in whats been described as a one off, opportunistic contract from a tier 1 provider within its Iot, Emerging & Other Division - which looks to have contributed an etra $28m in revenue and $18.6m in gross profit / EBITDA to the group result. Gross profit for this division have averaged around $1.1m historically and forbar forecast the same result going forward, whereas in FY22E it is forecast to be $19.7. It's possible Rak is awarded ongonig revenues from the customer after the contract but forbar don't assume it.

So one could argue ongoing maintainable EBITDA using FY22e as a base is $50m (guidance) less 18.6 = 31.4.

Still a nice trendline of growth from core operations > $14.5m (FY20) > 23.5m > 31.4m (f22 maintainable) > 37.5m (fy23 forbar estimate)

Yes good callout FM. The metrics (sales, whether one-off or more likely indicative of a sustainable sales pipeline at a level tbd) and profitability across the higher margin revenue streams bode well for RAK - it will be a very interesting year for RAK and its shareholders. I will be definitely be holding my allotment to see what transpires next year!

[carrom74]

$1.93 all time high after a while… maybe more than 12 years. One news article has rocketed this stock to new levels… Forbar”s $2.26 is not far away from today”s show

[Shareguy]

Yes. Another champagne day I think. $2 not far away now…. As Forbar have done the research would not be surprised if they are buying..

[sb9]

Early bids on trading depth suggest $2 isn’t out of question today. There’s is a big wall being put up at $2, let’s see if that’ll be smashed.

[sb9]

$2, full house…

[Mel]

$2, full house…
Wow, that's awesome, 2022 is already looking brighter :)

[Rawz]

455 buyers at 2.02. The sharesies army is keen!

[Scrunch]

Volume on DirectBroking is currently 876,957 shares at a value of $1.75m. Thats a touch more than the typical sharesies buyer. Reading off DB's graph, the last 1m share day was back in October.

[carrom74]

Holding steady at $1.97 whatever is offered at this price range is getting snapped up...Looks like a single seller determined to sell up all at $1.97...

[Sithalith]

Hi, I'm relatively new to investing. I was just wondering how one can view this information (I don't even know the correct terminology lol)? Is there a website you can recommend? Thank you in advance :-)

[cymonger]

Sorry, tried to post a chart for you and it didn't post correctly. I'll take a screenshot for you.

[fulliautomateix]

Hi, I'm relatively new to investing. I was just wondering how one can view this information (I don't even know the correct terminology lol)? Is there a website you can recommend? Thank you in advance :-)

I'm new too, for me I look at the Buys vs Sells on my Jarden account, is there a better way oh wise ones?

[Rawz]

Hi, I'm relatively new to investing. I was just wondering how one can view this information (I don't even know the correct terminology lol)? Is there a website you can recommend? Thank you in advance :-)

The list of buyers and sellers with their prices and volumes is called the 'market depth'.
I can see the market depth for free with my ASB securities account.
Through my sharesies account I would have to pay for it. I think it is $10 a month?

Stock monster shows all the trades and a few other things. https://stocknessmonster.com/quotes/rak.nzx/

[carrom74]

Director buying average price $1.87.

Expecting another upgrade soon.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/385440

[sb9]

Director buying average price $1.87.

Expecting another upgrade soon.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/385440

Yep, am picking another upgrade early in new year..

[Shareguy]

Good to see. I’m expecting another great year, which is why It is my second pick for the sharetrader competition. Even at $2.00 has low PE.

[cymonger]

Good to see. I’m expecting another great year, which is why It is my second pick for the sharetrader competition. Even at $2.00 has low PE.

So happy to be joining the RAKON Army. Been following this thread for a while and really appreciate the sage advice. Picked up a huge lot at 1.92 before Christmas and have already gotten a significant Christmas present from this share. Reminds me of buying CISCO and some of those back in the 90's. As long as they can execute, this company is part of what the future is going to be all about.

[cymonger]

For all you younger guys from Sharesies and such, awesome to have you on board as well. I know everyone wants to get rich investing in the Metaverse and NFT's and Crypto, but this is an investment that lets you be a part of what makes all the technology actually run. This way you get to bet on the future while also having the backing of some sound financial fundamentals. Take it from someone who went from poor to rich to poor back in the tech boom of the late 90's taking big gambles on things, that "financial fundamentals" part is important!

[sb9]

The surge continues…

[macduffy]

I'm probably adding 2+2 and getting more than 4, but I read today that Tesla engineers have re-worked the car's software to accommodate whatever microchips are available! Hoping that this is more good news for RAK!

:)

[sb9]

I'm probably adding 2+2 and getting more than 4, but I read today that Tesla engineers have re-worked the car's software to accommodate whatever microchips are available! Hoping that this is more good news for RAK!

:)

Not just them, could be many more customers.
Higher high today with big volume support further gains to come.

[Mel]

Not just them, could be many more customers.
Higher high today with big volume support further gains to come.
More than 2.5x what I paid some 10 years ago for one of my tranches......its been a long wait! The large volume on the first day back after the New Year period is very encouraging.

[Sithalith]

I'm a newbie who has invested in Rakon.....any ideas why it has fallen almost 10% the last few days? Excuse my ignorance, I was just wondering as I couldn't find any news items etc. Thanks!

[Shareguy]

No news . The market is in a funk at the moment. Good buying opportunity in my opinion.

[Sideshow Bob]

Just back to the same price as it was just over 2 weeks ago.

[Scrunch]

I'm a newbie who has invested in Rakon.....any ideas why it has fallen almost 10% the last few days? Excuse my ignorance, I was just wondering as I couldn't find any news items etc. Thanks!

A couple of possibilities include commentary by some of an expectation of another profit upgrade. An associated assumption is that no news is a lower probability of further upgrades. Another is the market just doing its thing which is often hard to explain.

A third is i'd seen something elseware about chip shortages easing and some traders may have had that as an exit point. If you look at 2019, there was one nzx announcement in the first four months of the year. Minimal announcements outside the HY, FY and AGM is the normfor RAK. They appear to be on-track for a stunning 2021/22 result.

[sb9]

Is this what's causing the sell off...

Major U.S. airlines warn 5G could ground some planes, wreak havoc
https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-major-us-airline-ceos-urge-action-avoid-catastrophic-5g-flight-2022-01-17/

[sb9]

One or two big boys might be dumping their stake by the looks. Doesn't look like profit taking...

[Mammoth]

Yikes. 25% fall in the last two weeks on the back of zero news. I'd hate to see the reaction on an actual negative announcement.

[Ex-CFO]

Might be time to pick up some while it is still on Sale. The question is would the airline issues stop the roll out of 5g? Probably not in my opinion.

[Ex-CFO]

also what is the implication on Rakon's revenue over the next 6 months? Probably no impact.

[Mel]

One or two big boys might be dumping their stake by the looks. Doesn't look like profit taking...
What do they know that we don't? - or maybe they are just banking their gains over what was a stellar run recently

[Wai Wai]

No impact whatsoever on Rakon
5G roll out just getting going




https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/logos_2021/market360(light).png











Hello Reader,
As you know, I'm an individual stock (a "bottom up") investor...
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During the presentation, I even told folks how to access one of my 5G stock picks absolutely free (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fclick.exct.investorplace.com%2F %3Fqs%3D96701a16625cc1a476183990cd19c9209e35c3ceb9 54dec198486b1f5a848329d81bbaf4593d9e66f3bbf1a81e78 536b9023693ae40554f4&data=04%7C01%7C%7C13273a705b684a96b96608d9db9d0eac %7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C6377 82289878693614%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4 wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6M n0%3D%7C3000&sdata=gImx7pa10PuNHqFIumxB14NutgXNKXuRLxAQsKYSisw% 3D&reserved=0) and show you how to access my brand-new 5G model portfolio. You'll also learn how to access another stock I recently found that's part of this trend. I'm adding this stock as an official, brand-new recommendation to my model portfolio tomorrow afternoon.
To watch the full presentation, simply click here. (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fclick.exct.investorplace.com%2F %3Fqs%3D96701a16625cc1a476183990cd19c9209e35c3ceb9 54dec198486b1f5a848329d81bbaf4593d9e66f3bbf1a81e78 536b9023693ae40554f4&data=04%7C01%7C%7C13273a705b684a96b96608d9db9d0eac %7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C6377 82289878849837%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4 wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6M n0%3D%7C3000&sdata=grEZrr9hZIHclT23D4g4MbEoURi4zlaAzahJgKTlEd4% 3D&reserved=0)
Sincerely,



https://s3.amazonaws.com/marketingassets.cloudsna.com/prod/images/ipm/SIGNATURES/2021/LouisNavalierSig_lt.png



Louis Navellier
P.S. As I said earlier, I recently targeted another potential 5G play.
I’m doing some final vetting and plan to release it as a brand-new stock recommendation tomorrow afternoon.
To learn how to access it, click here (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fclick.exct.investorplace.com%2F %3Fqs%3D96701a16625cc1a476183990cd19c9209e35c3ceb9 54dec198486b1f5a848329d81bbaf4593d9e66f3bbf1a81e78 536b9023693ae40554f4&data=04%7C01%7C%7C13273a705b684a96b96608d9db9d0eac %7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C6377 82289878849837%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4 wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6M n0%3D%7C3000&sdata=grEZrr9hZIHclT23D4g4MbEoURi4zlaAzahJgKTlEd4% 3D&reserved=0) or feel free to give our friendly U.S.-based customer service team a call at (800) 301-8972, Monday to Friday, from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET.

[Sparky669]

5G flight disruption eases as Emirates blasts U.S. rollout


https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airlines-scramble-rejig-schedules-amid-us-5g-rollout-concerns-2022-01-18/

[Mel]

The rollercoaster ride continues - after a run of declines, up 11% today. Can't see any clear logic for the recent share price fluctuations

[sb9]

The rollercoaster ride continues - after a run of declines, up 11% today. Can't see any clear logic for the recent share price fluctuations

For sure, definitely not for faint hearted, lol. And who would've thought of all stocks, RAK to be such a volatile stock to trade.

[SPC]

..Someone who's owned it since 2006 🙁.

[Mel]

..Someone who's owned it since 2006 .
I bought my first lot in 2011 for 0.86....

[SPC]

I've always felt it was more like the ghost train than the roller coaster.
More horror than thrills..

[Mel]

I've always felt it was more like the ghost train than the roller coaster.
More horror than thrills..
haha, as long as it ends with a thrill......

[SPC]

Climbing off with one's shirt on will do...😉

[RGR367]

Owned it too since IPO but managed to average down to 68 cents starting 2013 when it was there for the taking. Sold a large bundle late last year to realize some paper gains but will hold on to the rest unless someone wants it for no less than 230.

[SPC]

Ghost train has left the platform again for another circuit..🙁

[Walter]

Despite the run up the PE is going to be about 12 for the March 2022 year. That is a big discount to the market. Institutions are well under weight, so if there is a trigger event there could be quite the run.

[Nevl]

Listening to tech podcasts, many commentators are predicting a shortage of chips to carry on for a long time. Also the cheaper chips are not where the investment is going. Things like heat contriol chips don't need massive $15 billion factorys but are still needed in big numbers and the investment is not going into those. I am not sure how flexible Rakon is but it seems like there is still a large amount of unmet demand in the 5nm and above chips.

[Mel]

Yes, bodes well for RAK, A good overview on the chip shortage here:
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3648349/about-that-alarming-chip-shortage-dont-count-on-new-fab-plants-to-help-quickly.html

[Shareguy]

For bar have updated thier research note. They say

How has RAK performed?
RAKhas sold off -9% during 2022 from NZ$2.08 seen on 31 December 2021 to NZ$1.89now. Thisis a slightly better performance but not dissimilar to the NASDAQ 100 index movement over the same period. As such, we surmise this year’s sell-off in RAK as broadly sector-related rather than any company-specific factor.

$2.26 current value. Closed on Friday 4/2 $1.88

[Mel]

For bar have updated thier research note. They say

How has RAK performed?
RAKhas sold off -9% during 2022 from NZ$2.08 seen on 31 December 2021 to NZ$1.89now. Thisis a slightly better performance but not dissimilar to the NASDAQ 100 index movement over the same period. As such, we surmise this year’s sell-off in RAK as broadly sector-related rather than any company-specific factor.

$2.26 current value. Closed on Friday 4/2 $1.88

That's interesting, I was speculating as to why some insto's sold their stake in RAK - this could be a partial explanation of why - simple dilution of some of their tech stocks?

[Wai Wai]

Only one insto shareholder-ACC who have been net seller since late 2009
Go figure

[sb9]

Nice presentation material to Forbar investor forum, first time new CEO designate Sinan to present.

[Wai Wai]

Presentation

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/RAK/387016/364249.pdf

[Shareguy]

Another upgrade

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387035

[sb9]

Another upgrade

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387035

Yessss, they're getting better at these.

[Rawz]

Awesome! What momentum

[sb9]

Hope the investor crowd at Forbar presentation y'day will come out in full swing to push this past Jan'22 highs of 2.22.

[Mel]

Hit $2 but didn't momentum didn't hold it at those levels

[Walter]

PE is about a third of "growth" stocks. Defensive balance sheet, tax losses to utilise and little impact from supply chain now. Snoopy have you done the Buffet test on this?

[Ex-CFO]

Hit $2 but didn't momentum didn't hold it at those levels
Those guys who bought at recent crash are talking profit. Also inflation figures in US coming out tonight likely to have a negative impact on US market.
I am expecting EBITDA of $55m and NPAT $35 to $37m for the year ending March 2022. Rakon should be almost debt free by now. At PE of 12.5 and potential of growing revenue, I am happy to hold on to it. Earning per share is between 15.28 and 16.16. Assuming PE of 15 the share price would be between $2.29-2.42.

[Pricey]

Management keep warning that the TCXO chip shortages (due to the fire at the AKM factory) is going to abate and they will return to core growth in FY23. So FY22 is likely to be the high water mark and if they do return to a more normal growth path $2.29-2.42 looks expensive, especially given the company hasn't been a consistent performing over the years. I am cautiously optimistic, but I am always minded to believe what management says.

If FY22 is the high water mark then once they cycle through the higher growth numbers and post lower PCP figures in FY23, then it is likely to drop. I have FOMO and want to buy more, but FY22 is a one-off event until its not for me.

Key question is how much of this growth is sustainable and retainable?

[Mel]

if you are a trader, (I'm definitely not) you could be making some healthy gains based on how much RAK is fluctuating up and down almost daily

[Wai Wai]

This post on Hot Copper this morning

A shocking situation across Europe.

I was stunned to see Germany's final admission that it now needed to urgently and massively invest in defense systems and products. Similarly, European nations across the continent are investing heavily in being able to defend themselves against agressors.

RAKON is a global company, domiciled in New Zealand, with manufacturing and sales plants based around the world. It specialises in criticial componentry for Defense and Positioning Systems, Space, 5G and Internet of Things.

This company was already one of the growth success stories and darling of the NZX over the last two years. Due to very recent events, it is now perfectly positioned for its next massive growth spurt, to be a major supplier over the coming months to all of those nations requiring its componentry. Germany alone will be spending billions to increase and power up its defense capabilities.

RAKON is a neutral company, manufacturing from a neutral company. It will be able to do a lot of good here, from a bad situation.

It's time has well and truly come.Last edited by KiwiCheek (https://hotcopper.com.au/members/kiwicheek.560210/): 24 minutes ago

[sb9]

This post on Hot Copper this morning
A shocking situation across Europe.

I was stunned to see Germany's final admission that it now needed to urgently and massively invest in defense systems and products. Similarly, European nations across the continent are investing heavily in being able to defend themselves against agressors.

RAKON is a global company, domiciled in New Zealand, with manufacturing and sales plants based around the world. It specialises in criticial componentry for Defense and Positioning Systems, Space, 5G and Internet of Things.

This company was already one of the growth success stories and darling of the NZX over the last two years. Due to very recent events, it is now perfectly positioned for its next massive growth spurt, to be a major supplier over the coming months to all of those nations requiring its componentry. Germany alone will be spending billions to increase and power up its defense capabilities.

RAKON is a neutral company, manufacturing from a neutral company. It will be able to do a lot of good here, from a bad situation.

It's time has well and truly come.
Last edited by KiwiCheek (https://hotcopper.com.au/members/kiwicheek.560210/): 24 minutes ago



Today's NBR headline article (paywalled) discusses Rakon's potential.

Bluechip opportunity beckons for NZ-made semiconductors
ANALYSIS: Rakon’s expertise would be a worthy springboard as world reorganises supply.

[Malone]

Management keep warning that the TCXO chip shortages (due to the fire at the AKM factory) is going to abate and they will return to core growth in FY23. So FY22 is likely to be the high water mark and if they do return to a more normal growth path $2.29-2.42 looks expensive, especially given the company hasn't been a consistent performing over the years. I am cautiously optimistic, but I am always minded to believe what management says.

If FY22 is the high water mark then once they cycle through the higher growth numbers and post lower PCP figures in FY23, then it is likely to drop. I have FOMO and want to buy more, but FY22 is a one-off event until its not for me.

Key question is how much of this growth is sustainable and retainable?


The chip shortage is about to grow exponentially. While last time is was driven by a major fire at a competitor, this time those in the defence and space industries will be doing what Tesla has done with Lithium, going all out to secure supplies of TXCO for the BILLIONS of dollars worth of defence system orders that are coming out of Europe as we speak, with German at the head of the queue with a $210billion order of their own.

I believe we can conservatively estimate that RAKON will be SWAMPED with orders and we could even estimate what the next year look like. Off the back of the fire driven shortage, RAKON's revenues have pretty much doubled - from $25m to $50m.

It is quite poossible, that off the back hundreds of billions in new and urgent defence investment, that RAKON could double again.

Their time to enter the ASX or Nasdaq must be coming. This is easily the jewel in my portfolio. Terrible circumstances have been a silver lining for RAKON, and they have been smart enough to move fast to position themselves for it.

Having checked locations for their global manufacturing and sales sites, RAKON is perfectly placed to maximise this next wave in demand for TXCO.

Terrible times for the international community right now :(, but certainly a one off moment in history for the growth of RAKON.

[Waltzing]

In depth research on this company is surely warranted as everyone is looking at retirement villages is this next rocket labs?

they took a while to get going as well.

Defence is the future with the US , UK and AUS developing next gen technologies for defence that looks stunning stuff.

[Muse]

In depth research on this company is surely warranted as everyone is looking at retirement villages is this next rocket labs?

they took a while to get going as well.

Defence is the future with the US , UK and AUS developing next gen technologies for defence that looks stunning stuff.

forbar have started and its pretty decent. but with the proviso that it is company paid research. although, even 'independent' research is defacto paid when the IB in question undertook the IPO or various other capital raising or advisory services.

[sb9]

In depth research on this company is surely warranted as everyone is looking at retirement villages is this next rocket labs?

they took a while to get going as well.

Defence is the future with the US , UK and AUS developing next gen technologies for defence that looks stunning stuff.

Thanks for bringing the thread onto front page. Last post was more than months ago. Surprised to see sp got stuck in mid to high 160s despite some nice upgraded guidance by the company. With their FY finishing as at end of Mar, they'll soon have good handle on the numbers and I guess market looking for confirmation of those relative to guidance.

[beetills]

With my luck some upstart protesters will start making noise about Rakon being involved with the US military and it will all turn to sh..e

[Waltzing]

Every minister will now be aware that defence is going to be high on the list of concerns in democratic nations.

Its going to be a voting concern about securing the air space and seas.

Any companies that operate here that are technology driven surely will now be seen in a new light.

[Waltzing]

Balance sheet looks ok and able to trade.

Not paying anything yet but really being a tech company would rather see profits ploughed back into growth.

India plant looks interesting.

This has got to be more interesting then care beds ..

Cant be that NZ is tech investor shy.

MR B has just trashed ARV but is this going to be the next big performer on the NZX.

Notice the increase in profits in the PL and the relationship between admining the company and growing it.

Same cant be said for health care.

Come on DIC SNOP and Winner(>=n) not even slightly interested?

[Wai Wai]

Yesterday's webinar worth a glance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPMLUHsVSTM

[Waltzing]

looking like it wants to form a base here before moving on up.

Our head engineer rather likes this company and thinks it could turn out to be a Winner(n)...

Not sure why all the talk is on care beds and sleepy retirement stocks...

[Wai Wai]

From the Chairman's address at last years ASM...

“The Board appreciates the loyalty of its shareholders who have continued their investment and recently joined the Rakon register and assures shareholders that if the forecast results for FY2022 are achieved, and there is no significant capital requirement on the horizon, we will pay a dividend in respect of the 2022 year.”

Following the August ASM the company has upgraded the guidance twice from that given at the meeting so it is probably fair to assume the "forecast" results for FY2022 have been achieved for YE 31/3/22!!!

There has been no announcement of “significant capital requirement on the horizon”

So can we assume a dividend will be paid in respect of the 2022 year? If so of how much and will the index huggers (fund managers) finally realise we have another real growth stock on NZX ??:cool:

[winner69]

With my luck some upstart protesters will start making noise about Rakon being involved with the US military and it will all turn to sh..e

No worries there …. It seems a strong defence is a necessity to social sustainability so investing in guns, missiles, bombs etc is OK

Citi analysts saying, “We believe defence is likely to be increasingly seen as a necessity that that facilitates ESG as an enterprise, as well as maintaining peace, stability and other social goods.”

[nztx]

Dividend next week or too soon - maybe next year ? ;)

If not mistaken, the maidens have been kept waiting a fair while ?

[Waltzing]

QUALCOM firing ahead on IOT and wireless.

This manufacturer is underrated on the NZX.

Engineering types understand it better than your average SHAZ.

[sb9]

Almost month into FY period finished up and they should've good handle on numbers. They should be within guidance issued on 10th Feb this year as per below:

"It now expects Underlying EBITDA(1) for the year ending 31 March 2022 (FY2022) to be in the range of $49 million to $53 million, ahead of the guidance for $44 million to $49 million given on 12 November 2021 and confirmed on 25 November 2021."

Now it remains to bee seen what divvy they will deliver to shareholders (especially those long term holders since IPO days) and more importantly outlook for FY23. My gut feel is that it'll be gobbled by some US chip maker giant sooner than later.

[Waltzing]

defence spending likely to go ballistic in the WAR ZONE not sure how much that effects this stock will chat to our engineers.

But it the only pony in town in this market on the NZX and should be high interest but alas

It Rest Homes, Rest Homes, Rest Homes...

[dartMonkey]

Dividend next week or too soon - maybe next year ? ;)

If not mistaken, the maidens have been kept waiting a fair while ?
Feb 10 ann says "Rakon plans to announce its FY2022 results on 26 May 2022".
I thought it was 6 May 2022 for some reason.

[Waltzing]

This is one to keep a watch on..

[Mel]

Feb 10 ann says "Rakon plans to announce its FY2022 results on 26 May 2022".
I thought it was 6 May 2022 for some reason.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/391760

[Waltzing]

heading down to 150 ... lots of precision needed in the future to stop those pesky high speed missiles...

need to ask if more PGM means more of these sold but think it does ...

[Waltzing]

wonder if this got sold off a bit based on fears of recession...

retirement stocks could actually be anti cyclical ?

[moimoi]

A week out from FY2022 results.

An odd time for the recent buyer strike into a print that will confirm 6 months of improved financial expectations for a long standing company in the early stages of a secular growth phase...

GLTA.

[Rawz]

RAK top of the leaderboard today. 7.2% gain on no news? Unless i have missed something?

Go you good thing

[whatsup]

RAK top of the leaderboard today. 7.2% gain on no news? Unless i have missed something?

Go you good thing

NO Chatham Rock went up 35% today !!

[sb9]

FY results out tomorrow. Key points would be Maiden divvy as outlined by Board at last year ASM and more importantly outlook in relation to supply chain challenges.
If favorable on both counts, could quickly blow past $2 mark.
I still feel there’s an outside chance that this will be gobbled up by a global chip giant provided Robinson family back the deal.

[Rawz]

NO Chatham Rock went up 35% today !!

Oh yes true. ASB dont have it in their 'Biggest Gains' list.. wonder why


FY results out tomorrow. Key points would be Maiden divvy as outlined by Board at last year ASM and more importantly outlook in relation to supply chain challenges.
If favorable on both counts, could quickly blow past $2 mark.
I still feel there’s an outside chance that this will be gobbled up by a global chip giant provided Robinson family back the deal.

The chip shortage apparently has years to run aye. I am interested to see how the defense side of their business is going.. with Europe re-arming itself RAK could be a big benefactor that fly's under the radar

A takeover is on the cards. RAK quite cheap!

[Waltzing]

Yes this wonderful little company that doesnt get the attention its deserves (rest home being the action drama they all follow) is looking a very tempting investment... not long now..

The new plant in India is of interest.

Europe not just Arming up but more like national service coming back into fashion.

Cant wait to get back to Sweden next year and see the action live on the ground.

[Mel]

FY results out tomorrow. Key points would be Maiden divvy as outlined by Board at last year ASM and more importantly outlook in relation to supply chain challenges.
If favorable on both counts, could quickly blow past $2 mark.
I still feel there’s an outside chance that this will be gobbled up by a global chip giant provided Robinson family back the deal.
There was good volume traded at ~$2.20 in January 2022, so I think it's only a matter of time before this high is exceeded - lots of +ve's on the horizon!

[Sideshow Bob]

Rakon reports record earnings performance, EBITDA up 32% - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392728)

AUDITED RESULTS FOR THE FULL YEAR TO 31 MARCH 2022
Rakon reports record earnings performance, EBITDA up 132%
Highlights:
Revenue $172.0m (FY21 : $128.3m)
Underlying EBITDA more than doubles to $54.4m (FY21: $23.5m)
Net profit after tax $33.1m (FY21: $9.6m)
Sustained core market growth, particularly 5G and industrial positioning
Significant new opportunities captured from worldwide chip shortage
Record delivery despite global supply chain disruptions and materials shortages
New dividend policy announced

[Waltzing]

"lots of +ve's on the horizon!"

actually while that is true its the metals that are apparently becoming harder to source and more expensive slowing the roll out.

Well report shows promise.

"He said raw material supply has remained tight, resulting in extended lead
times and price increases. "Capacity constraints, allocations and rising
prices from suppliers unfortunately remain the norm, and we continue to work
hard to mitigate risks around procurement of materials and actively manage
higher levels of inventory."


could find this coming year harder going. Bit of a one off year performance?

No Dividend as they want all the GOLD for R&D and to grow the GOLD pile...

No Gold for share holders... NONE..

Might as well buy MR B's TRA.... old bangers that pay out GOLD..

Nvidia Down in the after market. Tech getting a savage rerating on the NAS.

[Mammoth]

Stunning result!! However, a dividend announcement about no dividends....'our dividend policy is we're reinvesting the lot'. A good chuck of reinvest makes perfect sense but would have liked the shareholders to have got thrown a bone, or at least a chicken wing.

[Waltzing]

" thrown a bone, or at least a chicken wing."

yep something to at least buy some KFC's ... more than one ...

[Rawz]

Trading on a P/E of 11.3
Or excluding the TCXO chip shortage it is trading on a P/E of 18.8

5 year revenue CAGR is 14% Solid!!!
But if you exclude the TCXO chip shortage its 7%

They have 4 core markets and only Telecommunications has a solid trend line. The other 3 are patchy up and down on the 5 year revenue trend

No dividend. $23m in the bank.

I am a holder. Its a good result but not outstanding. I have no idea how this sticky this TXCO chip shortage business they are getting is going to be once that big factory that burnt down in Taiwan or Korea (or wherever it was) is rebuilt and starts producing again. If RAK can hold onto those customers then its cheap as.

New management. New chair. Dont know anything about them.

What's everyone else's thoughts?

[Waltzing]

Can understand why MR B buys old Bangers and makes money. Much simpler business model.

Most of the investing public has no idea what and how you manufacture a crystal oscillator .

Heck until this company starting making some interesting profits recently had no interest in Difference Between TCXO and OCXO

where and how the product was used and where it markets were.

[Walter]

Trading on a P/E of 11.3
Or excluding the TCXO chip shortage it is trading on a P/E of 18.8

5 year revenue CAGR is 14% Solid!!!
But if you exclude the TCXO chip shortage its 7%

They have 4 core markets and only Telecommunications has a solid trend line. The other 3 are patchy up and down on the 5 year revenue trend

No dividend. $23m in the bank.

I am a holder. Its a good result but not outstanding. I have no idea how this sticky this TXCO chip shortage business they are getting is going to be once that big factory that burnt down in Taiwan or Korea (or wherever it was) is rebuilt and starts producing again. If RAK can hold onto those customers then its cheap as.

New management. New chair. Dont know anything about them.

What's everyone else's thoughts?

Positioning revenue down as a deliberate strategy to chase margin. Trend should be up from now on.
The high margin Space/Defense should have turned the corner now, I would not be surprised to see it up 50% this year.
There has been a deliberate strategy to move away from the Robinson family management as that was perceived as a negative.

[Rawz]

Listened to the call... CEO/ CFO spoke really well i thought. You get the sense they have a clear vision for RAK to be a growth company and are investing & positioning the company to do so.

Kevin at the end gave them a good grilling on the lack of dividends lol. But the CEO did a Warren Buffett and said the cash is better with me- 'ill get you a better return with the capital' is what he essentially said to Kevin. I thought he answered it well.

There is an investor day coming up in a few months.. they promised to provide shareholders with multi year projections. Good stuff

Happy holder.

[Raro]

Yep, good call, good presentation but they continue to downplay their success and future (once bitten..). I suggest the news is far better than they're letting on so I'm a happy continued buyer at current levels as this one is going to go gangbusters soon I reckon.

[SPC]

No I disagree. This co. has produced zilch for shareholders since listing. Retaining earnings simply keeps money in the bank for executive and director remuneration.
They should distribute profits to shareholders and take accountability in the lean years and take personal responsibility.
Robinson family have made a good living from this business and as retirement inevitably looms they'll probably find a buyer and disappear. It should never have listed.
The market is showing its contempt today.
Maybe next year.....maybe next year...maybe and on and one it goes.

[Rawz]

No I disagree. This co. has produced zilch for shareholders since listing. Retaining earnings simply keeps money in the bank for executive and director remuneration.
They should distribute profits to shareholders and take accountability in the lean years and take personal responsibility.
Robinson family have made a good living from this business and as retirement inevitably looms they'll probably find a buyer and disappear. It should never have listed.
The market is showing its contempt today.
Maybe next year.....maybe next year...maybe and on and one it goes.

I am a new investor to RAK, but yes I can see how long term shareholders will be annoyed at no divvy this year.
Maybe today some have had enough and giving themselves their own dividend by selling down

RAK historically a dog! No doubt about it. but the future.. looking good

[SPC]

With no disrespect to your optimistic view as a more recent holder...but history is against you and you'll likely join the long line of disappointed holders, eventually.
They should have converted their production to plastic water toys (and made a killing) rather than continuing to subsidize the intellectual development costs of global manufacturers who quickly rob and commoditize their technical innovations.

[Muse]

I am a new investor to RAK, but yes I can see how long term shareholders will be annoyed at no divvy this year.
Maybe today some have had enough and giving themselves their own dividend by selling down

RAK historically a dog! No doubt about it. but the future.. looking good

I think the Board and mgmt have done a decent job in the last 12 months at trying to rehabilitate their image. Obviously the earnings boom helps, but little things like a new non family CEO, better quality investor presentations, forsyth barr research, more engagement with the investor community etc.

but the refusal to pay a dividend is a step backwards after many forward. I'm not particularly fussed either way, but many are after being shareholders far longer than me, so they should have displayed more emotional intelligence on the issue. Plus they have a big net cash balance, plenty of future earnings, and loads of borrowing capacity should they ever need to seriously invest in something - so from a financial perspective they have plenty of capacity to pay a dividend now.

[sb9]

I think they missed the trick here by not paying a maiden divvy on back of such strong numbers. Yes, long suffering shareholders over years won’t be forgiving that but.
They should’ve given a token 10c or so as divvy and all would’ve been forgiven.

Still holding as a recent holder.

[Ex-CFO]

I think they missed the trick here by not paying a maiden divvy on back of such strong numbers. Yes, long suffering shareholders over years won’t be forgiving that but.
They should’ve given a token 10c or so as divvy and all would’ve been forgiven.

Still holding as a recent holder.
As an ex CFO of listed company for over 20 years, I believe that it is important to keep cash for growth rather than borrowing to pay a dividend. Having said that however, I believe they do have the capability of paying 2 cents per share if they are still expecting similar bottomline for the coming year. Their board might be slightly conservative or may be the expansion in India might need more than $20m for the coming two years. Overall it is a good results and the PE is low given that it is growing. I see a good future for the positioning product and the likely increase in demand in the coming years. I am happy to hold my position and increase my holding on weakness.

[Rawz]

Best to wait for the investor day I reckon. Will have a much better feel for where the new CEO/CFO want to take this little gem.

I do like a company that has been a dog, get new management and new direction. Underdog/turnaround story type thing. MHJ did it really well.

[nztx]

I thought that might happen - Board chuck the empty KFC Boxes out the window at stakeholders
after dining up big

Same old same old .. seen it coming - TRA gets the vote & RAK remains on the blacklist ;)

Fair's fair - but then RAK have a certain history of the ultimate in generosity ;)