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Nevl
16-03-2006, 10:48 AM
there was a bit of talk last month about Rakon looking to do an IPO or raise some funds. Has anyone heard any news?
This could be a great company and the family have done a brillant job in establishing global leadership in a hi tech industry. Would be great to sell them list on the NZX but will probally end up doing a Navman and selling to a big offshore company. I hope not anyway.

zyreon
16-03-2006, 12:15 PM
apparently there's an IPO out next week, dunno who/what/if

marinesalvor
16-03-2006, 12:16 PM
Delegats?

Snow Leopard
16-03-2006, 12:50 PM
Previous Rakon IPO thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=22813&SearchTerms=rakon)

Delegats announced today they would IPO shortly.

StainlessSteelRat
25-03-2006, 06:51 AM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10374356
Fast-growing Rakon bucks trend to go to home market for $10m

Technology company Rakon has decided to buck the trend and stick with the New Zealand Stock Exchange.

The company said yesterday it planned to raise $10 million on the NZX to expand production capacity and develop new products.

The share offer will comprise a selldown by Ahuareka Trustee - as trustee of the Ahuareka Trust representing founder Warren Robinson and family interests - of 35 per cent of the company.

Rakon makes quartz crystals and oscillators used in telecommunications and global positioning systems.

The company, which was formed in 1967 by Robinson in his basement, employs about 500 people at its Auckland headquarters and exports 95 per cent of its production.

Forecast sales this year are $80 million with a trading profit of $14 million. The prediction for 2007 is $100 million and $20 million respectively.

Navman founder Peter Maire, who with his investment partners owns 20 per cent of Rakon, said representatives of the firm had spent a week in the United Kingdom investigating the possibility of joining London's AIM market. The US Nasdaq and Australian ASX markets had also been examined as listing options.

But Maire said the increasing cost of governance in the US after the Enron scandal had made a listing there a generally less attractive option. "It just got tougher and more expensive."

Nevl
25-03-2006, 01:45 PM
yep heard on the radio last night. They want 10 mill. If I had it they could get the lot from me. Anyway will be looking to get in early on this one. Nice to see them stay at home though I have got Neuren and Brainz also so Aussie is not too bad.

rmbbrave
26-03-2006, 08:07 PM
From Rakon's home page...

http://www.rakon.com/whatsnew/display?article_id=-85&template=news

PRESS RELEASE: RAKON LIMITED: 11:30AM 24TH MARCH 2006.

Rakon Limited has confirmed that it intends to make an initial public offering of shares and listing on the NZSX.

The share offer will comprise a sell down by Ahuareka Trustee Limited (as trustee of the Ahuareka Trust representing Warren Robinson and Robinson Family interests) of 35% of the company and the issue of new shares to raise $10 million. The proceeds from the issue of new shares will be used to expand production capacity and for the development of new products.

The offer will be targeted to institutional investors in New Zealand, Australia and elsewhere, and retail investors who will principally be clients of leading brokers in New Zealand.

rmbbrave
26-03-2006, 08:10 PM
SSR the whole article is worth posting as it seems to suggest that NZers my go crazy over high-tech or bio-tech IPOs.

Flight of the bright benefits foreigners

25.03.06
By Owen Hembry


BrainZ Instruments is on the verge of cracking the big time. With technology developed by scientists at the University of Auckland's Liggins Institute, the Auckland-based medical technology company has developed bedside monitors to test for brain injuries in newborn babies and young children.

The company hasn't turned a profit but believes it will soon break into a global market it estimates at US$140 million ($227 million) in hardware and US$49 million a year in ongoing contracts.

When the company does make a return from the New Zealand research that has gone into the monitors, much of the profits will go to overseas investors because BrainZ is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange.

It is just one of a number of local companies that found when they needed investment to turn their research into a growing business they had to look overseas.

Neuren and Living Cell Technologies have also listed in Australia, Endace has listed in London and Virionyx looks set to list in the United States.

Opinion is divided, however, as to what is driving some of the best and brightest companies overseas and whether this country should be concerned.

The reason for BrainZ listing overseas was simple: Money.

Chief executive and former New Zealand test cricketer Justin Vaughan said the company wanted to tap into a bigger pool of capital "and a more, I suppose, accepting investor base in that they have had BrainZ-like businesses to invest in ... and had some good results out of those".

BrainZ raised A$13 million ($15 million) when it listed on the ASX in December, with New Zealand agri-tech company Tru-Test retaining a 57 per cent stake.

Vaughan said traditionally the New Zealand market had been more focused on yield stocks "and actually the costs associated with going to Australia are just really no greater".

Robin Clements, senior economist at UBS investment bank, said companies listing offshore could affect New Zealand's economic growth.

"For the successes, the capital gains and the income that flows from them goes offshore."

He said the fact that companies chose to list offshore was indicative of a lack of national savings and its knock-on effect into the availability of local venture capital.

Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim said the local market did not provide the support needed by new technology companies.

"If they try to raise the money over here, they will struggle and they will probably not get what they would perceive to be fair value for their potential discoveries."

This is not due to a shortage of local finance.

"There's plenty of money out there," Lim said.

It was more because of a lack of confidence, which the market had brought upon itself. In the past, the market had paid too much for biotech listings, including oral health product manufacturer BLIS Technologies.

"Again the market foolishly priced in all the upside, all the blue sky on day one ... all on the back of some promises," Lim said.

Shares in BLIS were issued at 10c but rocketed to $2.20 before settling at $1.75 on the first day of trading in September 2000. The shares were trading at 13c yesterday.

"It's performances like this that give the biotech sector in New Zealand a bad name."

The market, however, was not alone in lacking confidence, with entrepreneurs keeping one eye out for a buyer.

"If you are a successful biotech or technology company over here and someone offered you a cheque ... the mindset I think is to take the money and run," Lim said.

Peter Maire, founder of navigation technology company Navman, agreed, but said the choice of whether to sell up or soldier on was not simple.

He sold Navman to US marine technology company Brunswick in 2004 for $108 million.

Maire said companies that sold up or floated offshore would lead to profits bein

COLIN
26-03-2006, 08:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

SSR the whole article is worth posting as it seems to suggest that NZers my go crazy over high-tech or bio-tech IPOs.





The outcome of my one dabble in the NZ bio-tech field - GEN - was enough to scare me off for life! I think the same would be true for many other local investors, who got sucked in by the hype and the big names involved in that sell-off.
Once bitten, twice shy.

rmbbrave
26-03-2006, 09:33 PM
From above Colin,

... despite market scepticism, however, there was one certainty that could be depended on.

"That's the thing about the market, there will always be another generation of fools who will come and embrace the next great thing."

rmbbrave
13-04-2006, 09:31 AM
Investors fired up over Rakon

13.04.06
By Richard Inder


Demand for shares in Rakon, the maker of the world's smallest GPS receiver, are reportedly bettering the expectations of the Auckland-based company's bankers.

The company, founded by engineer Warren Robinson, in a Howick basement in 1967, will shortly offer shares to investors at $1.60 apiece.

This price is substantially higher than the $1.10 to $1.40 indicative range the shares were first offered to investors and a later upwardly revised range of $1.20 to $1.50 a share.

Rakon and adviser UBS arrived at this figure after brokers said they could sell a substantial volume of shares at this price.

Rakon is today due to register the prospectus for its initial public offering of around $67 million and $70 million worth of shares. About 40 per cent of the shares will be placed with New Zealand investors.

Investors are looking at the potential for the company's chips to be used in the 500 million to 600 million mobile phones and the 70 million to 80 million cars manufactured each year.

Between 42.1 million and 44.1 million shares will be offered to the public. As much as 20 per cent of these will be new shares, raising as much as $14.5 million.

This new cash will be used to expand the company's sales and marketing presence and production capacity at its Mt Wellington headquarters. As many as 30 new jobs could be created at Rakon's headquarters in Mt Wellington, where it employs 500 people.

Some potential investors are disappointed more shares are not available. But, it is thought the company, led by Robinson's sons Brent and Darren wants to establish Rakon's fair value before more new investors are brought on to the register.

On listing, the company is expected to have a market value of around $170 million, well ahead of its initial expectations disclosed by the Business Herald in January of about $147 million.

The price is also despite a cut in its forecast trading profits for this year and next. Last year, when the company mooted a public offer, it had forecast trading profits of about $14 million in the past March year and $20 million next year. It now expects $11.4 million this year and $15.5 million next.

The reasons for the cut are unclear, but they may reflect a more conservative approach to forecasts ahead of the public float. Annual net profits are expected to rise from around $4.4 million to $7.2 million.

The family last year sold a 20 per cent share in the business to Peter Maire, founder and chairman of navigation technology specialist Navman.

He then said Rakon was New Zealand's "only real technology company".

"If you talk about real, state-of-the- art technology on a global scale, they're a market leader.

"They beat all of the major Japanese competitors hands down."

Footsie
14-04-2006, 01:43 PM
this kind of stock feeds on itself.

pimpit
14-04-2006, 02:02 PM
Their VCXO business is coming to an end. There are lot of Asian companies manufacture VCXO’s. TCXO business is doing fairly well. They sell most of the reference TCXO’s for all the major gps chip sets.

People like Motorola buy from them due to high reliability. I am not sure if their sine wave point matching custom IC based solution is used by other manufactures.

The New GPS receiver is very smart move for them from traditional oscillator markets. I have ordered some samples and waiting to evaluate them. I think they have a good head start before everyone in Asia catches up to them.

Any one know dates for the IPO?

corsair
16-04-2006, 11:09 PM
First range was $1.10-1.40, second was $1.40-$1.50, now they're saying $1.60!

Seems like someones getting a little greedy.

dabru
18-04-2006, 08:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Nevl

there was a bit of talk last month about Rakon looking to do an IPO or raise some funds. Has anyone heard any news?
This could be a great company and the family have done a brillant job in establishing global leadership in a hi tech industry. Would be great to sell them list on the NZX but will probally end up doing a Navman and selling to a big offshore company. I hope not anyway.

Sehnsucht888
19-04-2006, 08:26 AM
Does anyone have a link for the prospectus?
Or are there only hard copies out there?

rmbbrave
19-04-2006, 08:49 AM
Rakon bullish on GPS sales

19.04.06
By Richard Inder


Rakon, the shortly-to-be-floated maker of the world's smallest GPS receiver, is expecting its sales next year to increase by almost a quarter as its technology is adopted by makers of cars and mobile phones.

The figures, detailed in the prospectus for the company's $66 million share offer which opened yesterday, show sales growing from $73.3 million in the year to this March to $90.6 million next year. Over the same period it expects net profits to grow $4.4 million to $7.2 million.

The forecasts reflect assumptions the directors reasonably expect to occur, compared to a less robust standard used in other recent float forecasts, which were based on possible outcomes but not the most probable outcome.

Profits may rise higher still, since the forecasts were prepared using a New Zealand dollar conversion rate of US67c. Yesterday's close was US62.65c.

The company makes around 37 per cent of its sales in North America.

But investors should not expect to see the proceeds in shareholder payouts as Rakon has no plans to pay dividends.

Rakon says: "Surplus funds will be retained in order to capitalise on immediate and future growth opportunities."

The company was founded by Warren Robinson in a Howick basement in 1967. It started developing crystals for electrical applications and has since branched out into oscillators and GPS (global positioning system) receivers.

It is now eyeing the potential for these technologies to be used in the 500-600 million mobile phones and the 70-80 million cars manufactured each year.

Around 41.2 million shares in Rakon are to be offered to the public at $1.60 apiece. Of these, 35 million are being sold by the Robinson family trust, while another 6.25 million are also being put on the the market.

After listing, the family trust will retain a 22.6 per cent stake. Warren's sons Brent (managing director) and Darren (marketing director) will have stakes of 9.3 per cent each.

Peter Maire, founder of the GPS receiver company Navman, will retain a 15.6 per cent stake.

The new shares will raise about $10 million to expand the company's sales and marketing presence and production capacity at its Mt Wellington headquarters. As many as 30 new jobs could be created there, where Rakon employs 500 people.

The company for the first time is being less coy about its links to the military, splashing images of warplanes and soldiers over its prospectus. Last year talk that its products ended up in smart bombs used in Iraq sparked a media storm.

Around 65 per cent of its sales come from its top 15 customers. US defence contractor Rockwell International is a key customer.

Investor demand for the shares has so far been strong.

This is reflected in the $1.60 share price, substantially higher than the $1.10 to $1.40 indicative range at which the shares were first offered to investors and a later revised range of $1.20 to $1.50 a share.

On listing, the company will have a market value of around $170 million, well ahead of its initial expectations disclosed by the Business Herald in January of about $147 million.

The float is expected to cost as much as $4.3 million.

But Rakon will cover only $1 million of this charge, the rest covered by the vending shareholders. UBS is the chief beneficiary.

RAKON TIMETABLE

* Yesterday: Share offer opens
* May 12: Offer closes
* May 15: Shares allotted
* May 16: Trading begins

rmbbrave
19-04-2006, 08:58 AM
The offer will be targeted to institutional investors in New Zealand, Australia and elsewhere, and retail investors who will principally be clients of leading brokers in New Zealand.

For more information please contact a NZX broker firm.

http://www.rakon.com/whatsnew/display?article_id=-85&template=news

Regretfully due to unprecedented demand our allocation in the Initial Public Offer of Rakon Limited has now been filled.

http://www.asbsecurities.co.nz/

ASB has none left even before the offer opened. The share is going to sky rocket on opening day but it will be too difficult to be part of it.

Sehnsucht888
19-04-2006, 09:46 AM
Well it has been being pumped by the brokers on TV the last couple days, so guess thats to be expected.
Would have been nice to be on board at the start, but agree looks too tough now.
Should have been more awake this month...

corsair
19-04-2006, 03:13 PM
Damn that was quick

So there is no way anyone can get in on it now?

dabru
19-04-2006, 03:29 PM
I'm meant to be getting some when they're issued but I definitely will be buying more when they list.There appears to be some good blood behind this stock!Having Peter Maire putting money into the company is a definite plus:D

lambton
19-04-2006, 04:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by corsair

Damn that was quick

So there is no way anyone can get in on it now?


Asked for 200k, got 5K. Very tight. Probably go up but might be based on hype and feeding on itself than fundamentals.

tsb
19-04-2006, 05:28 PM
asked asb for 19K - got zipp

sniper
19-04-2006, 07:58 PM
Think about this for 1 minute.

600m mobile phones currently sold a year and this is projected to grow to 1 billion by 2010.

Assume 10% incorporates GPS within the next 2 years so 60m requires GPS receiver.

Rakon has 50% market share so 30m receivers sold by company.

Makes 50 cents per receiver so profit = $15m or $10m after tax.

If 20% of mobiles incorporate GPS, profit to Rakon will be $20m.

2007 profit projection (without mobile phones)is $7m.

Some fantastic blue sky if you believe more mobiles will incorporate GPS in the near future.

That's the pitch.

rmbbrave
20-04-2006, 09:07 AM
I have been informed that there is no public pool for this IPO.

If you can't get them from a broker you're not getting any.

lanenz
20-04-2006, 12:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Think about this for 1 minute.

600m mobile phones currently sold a year and this is projected to grow to 1 billion by 2010.

Assume 10% incorporates GPS within the next 2 years so 60m requires GPS receiver.

Rakon has 50% market share so 30m receivers sold by company.

Makes 50 cents per receiver so profit = $15m or $10m after tax.

If 20% of mobiles incorporate GPS, profit to Rakon will be $20m.

2007 profit projection (without mobile phones)is $7m.

Some fantastic blue sky if you believe more mobiles will incorporate GPS in the near future.

That's the pitch.


Snaper.

Will Rakon hold their 50% of marketshare?

Will it still be able to maintain the smallest gps by 2010?

Can it maintain its margin over the next few years?

Do blue skys stay blue or does it start pising down after a while?

I love you snaper, straight from a brokers mouth

sniper
20-04-2006, 02:56 PM
Lanenz,

Unlike you, I do not believe in blue skies. :D

Rakon? You are welcome to the hype. [^]

Snow Leopard
20-04-2006, 03:10 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper

Unlike you, I do not believe in blue skies. :D

Go find a window and take a look outside.

shasta
20-04-2006, 03:29 PM
Especially here in Wellington today!

An IPO fully subscribed is a great thing on a shrinking exchange, maybe sniper is feeling the fear?

For those wanting to stag Rakon the first day or so should do well.

Interesting small company & will keep an eye on it.

sniper
20-04-2006, 03:39 PM
Plus SMS anyone? ;)

shasta
20-04-2006, 03:48 PM
You think Rakon might do a Plus SMS & have its share price multiple within 12 months?

I personally wouldnt touch PLS, but it did go up from 0.14 to 0.82 (now at 0.68) so hype or not, most people would still be in the money.

This would be the first IPO in a long time ASB Securities have not offered me an allocation.

sniper
20-04-2006, 06:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

You think Rakon might do a Plus SMS & have its share price multiple within 12 months?

I personally wouldnt touch PLS, but it did go up from 0.14 to 0.82 (now at 0.68) so hype or not, most people would still be in the money.

This would be the first IPO in a long time ASB Securities have not offered me an allocation.


Hype sells. So sell the hype until reality bites.

Ask Lanenz about NZO and the hype there. He's still sore about holding NZO whilst Woodside goes higher and higher and higher. Only thing going higher and higher at NZO is management's salaries. ;)

shasta
20-04-2006, 06:58 PM
Nothing wrong with getting in early before the herd & letting the hype drive up the share price & making a quid from it is there?

BTW, am holding NZO & not complaining, but lets leave this to a more appropriate thread.

Rakon is IMO a stag play until the market see some real numbers chalked up & disclosed.

lambton
20-04-2006, 07:14 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

Nothing wrong with getting in early before the herd & letting the hype drive up the share price & making a quid from it is there?

BTW, am holding NZO & not complaining, but lets leave this to a more appropriate thread.

Rakon is IMO a stag play until the market see some real numbers chalked up & disclosed.


Totally agree. Will stag my little allocation.

lanenz
20-04-2006, 08:28 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


quote:Originally posted by shasta

You think Rakon might do a Plus SMS & have its share price multiple within 12 months?

I personally wouldnt touch PLS, but it did go up from 0.14 to 0.82 (now at 0.68) so hype or not, most people would still be in the money.

This would be the first IPO in a long time ASB Securities have not offered me an allocation.


Hype sells. So sell the hype until reality bites.

Ask Lanenz about NZO and the hype there. He's still sore about holding NZO whilst Woodside goes higher and higher and higher. Only thing going higher and higher at NZO is management's salaries. ;)
Im very sore, with laughter.:D

StainlessSteelRat
20-04-2006, 09:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by shasta

This would be the first IPO in a long time ASB Securities have not offered me an allocation.


Which tells you it's worth investing in. The brokers only shove their snouts in when it's a "cert". That's why they don't want any punters getting a sniff.

Snow Leopard
21-04-2006, 06:11 AM
Rakon is a good company. They have good product and good management, remember that they have a strong position in their market and invest in making the most of it. They are evryhting one looks for in a growth share

However everything has it's price and reading this thread leads me to believe that this one will end up well overpriced once trading gets underway. It will take time for this to settle at a realistic price.

If you have not got a firm allocation then patience will be the key to gaining a stake in this one.

sniper
21-04-2006, 06:32 AM
Pumpkin Patch was way over-priced at the time of the IPO, wasn't it? [8D]

Snow Leopard
21-04-2006, 07:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Pumpkin Patch was way over-priced at the time of the IPO, wasn't it? [8D]

The role of devil's advocate suits you, sniper. :)

trackers
21-04-2006, 08:09 AM
I know this will most likely get blasted, and that's all good - however, one thing that striked me as fairly odd (given rough mental calculations of comparably sized orgs) was the number of employees...500 is a hell of a lot of people isn't it?

Keeping in mind the fact that I believe regardless of the IPO price, this share is bound to have some blue sky on open- at which time i will most likely throw some speculative cash into

Futurz
21-04-2006, 11:45 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Plus SMS anyone? ;)


Bit rough comparing it to PLS! Rakon actually makes money where PLS is all smoke and mirrors with a technology no one seems to understand and does not make any $$$.

You're reference to Pumpkin Patch may seem closer to the mark ;)

Futurz
21-04-2006, 11:50 AM
quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat


quote:Originally posted by shasta

This would be the first IPO in a long time ASB Securities have not offered me an allocation.


Which tells you it's worth investing in. The brokers only shove their snouts in when it's a "cert". That's why they don't want any punters getting a sniff.


What it really tells you is if you are a good client of your broker or just another one making up the numbers [:p]

End of the day brokers have to fulfil all client demand before they can take stock for themselves. So in a tight issue like this it is only the top clients that will get stock.

world_flyer
28-04-2006, 08:59 AM
Like hens teeth these were...
Managed to grab 6000 split across two brokers.....

I like these for more than a quick stag. I think that Rakon have some geniuine IP in their production processes that others will need to be able to get hold of should they want to replicate and gain market share.

lambton
29-04-2006, 07:26 PM
quote:Originally posted by world_flyer

Like hens teeth these were...
Managed to grab 6000 split across two brokers.....

I like these for more than a quick stag. I think that Rakon have some geniuine IP in their production processes that others will need to be able to get hold of should they want to replicate and gain market share.


Brokers pet huh?

rmbbrave
29-04-2006, 10:32 PM
quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by world_flyer

Like hens teeth these were...
Managed to grab 6000 split across two brokers.....

I like these for more than a quick stag. I think that Rakon have some geniuine IP in their production processes that others will need to be able to get hold of should they want to replicate and gain market share.


Brokers pet huh?


Maybe.

When I was paying 1% commission on any trades I was a pet of the brokers too. He helped me get into the NZF IPO.

But when I eliminated the middleman and started trading online I was cast adrift.

rmbbrave
30-04-2006, 09:07 PM
Navigating through Rakon's prospects
26 April 2006

By BRUCE MCKAY
Rakon is shaping up as one of the most sought-after stocks in the market, judging by the enthusiasm that has greeted its initial public offering.


The company's founder, Warren Robinson, is selling a portion of his holding and the company is issuing 10 million new shares to give incoming investors about 40 per cent of the company.

The enthusiasm derives from the growth projections for Rakon's products, or, more precisely, the growth projections for the electronic devices its products are used in. These are mobile phones and global positioning receivers.

This is potentially a much bigger investment in mobile phones than buying telecommunications stock because every phone and gps device needs the items that Rakon makes: quartz crystal components and oscillators.

Projections in the prospectus show that the global market for gps devices will grow at an annual compound rate of 28 per cent between 2005 and 2010, giving a market value of US$350 billion by the end of the decade. Further, the biggest segment of the market, communications, is expected to grow at a compound rate of 33 per cent a year during the same period.

It is a big market, growing quickly. The irony is that Rakon's goal is to make its components smaller to help shrink the overall size of the gps devices and in turn, allow them to be deployed in more places. Think about microprocessors; there are dozens of them in your home and car and not just in the computer in the back room.

The devices could become as pervasive, though why your washing machine would need a gps device needs to be worked out.

So what is Rakon worth? How should its shares be valued? There are a couple of challenges in looking at those questions.

The first point to note is that the New Zealand market has not had a lot of exposure to technology companies. Most have been small, with volatile earnings streams, and a number have fallen by the wayside.

Wellington Drive is a company that has a great product but doesn't seem able to crack the big time and deliver the value that seems just to be sitting there.

Rakon is not a software story, however; it makes stuff that is critical to the operation of gps devices and no amount of innovation is going to get rid of the need for a reference frequency.

A physics lesson for you. To be able to tune a device such as a radio, TV or gps unit to a certain frequency, the unit needs to have a reference frequency, something with which to compare the desired frequency. One of the best materials for this is quartz crystal.

AdvertisementAdvertisementWhen an electric current is run through a quartz crystal it vibrates at a very stable frequency, and that is your reference frequency. Anything that is wireless needs this simple apparatus. Rakon's skill has been in making crystals more stable and smaller.

In looking at similar stocks listed on the NZX, the one that looks most like Rakon is Fisher & Paykel Healthcare. Both are technology companies, specialising in particular areas. Both have large, well-established international markets developed over many years.

Both are in product markets that are growing rapidly and both have adapted to rapid change through innovation and product development.

But because they have similar attributes doesn't mean the companies should trade on the same multiples.

One of the issues Rakon faces is educating the market about what it does and what its prospects are. Companies that introduce new industries to the market often have a period during which the market is coming to terms with what the company is and the type of valuation metrics that should be applied.

One example is Auckland Airport. After its listing the share price sagged while the market "got its head" around the economics of airports.

Once the market was comfortable that it understood the company, the share price began to move to where its valuation stood and shareholders did rather well.

The same thing can be expected here. It wil

Footsie
01-05-2006, 09:19 PM
I've managed to get hold of 3,000 from my broker. Thats it!
Rare as hen's teeth.

I didnt ask for any more as there weren't any, but would have taken 50,000.


If it doesn't list at too much of a premium i may just buy the other 47,000.

dabru
02-05-2006, 09:07 AM
I got 3000 to.Will look at increasing that when they list.Rmbbrave.The article you got from Bruce McKay is interesting.I've got shares in WDT, which appears to be a good product but it takes time to teach the masses what a great product you've got.Once a few more companies start using it I think it will take of.Rakon has done something well and it appears to be starting to reap their just rewards.I don't think they'll stop here and wouldn't be suprised if they have not already got something else in the pipeline.I only hope they don't get gobbled up by some other overseas company.We need to keep companies like this here and the govt needs to encourage it.

kr16
03-05-2006, 04:42 PM
HI there guys im a small time invester.
I just want to know if i would be better to buy the shares on the day list or better to wait a month or so. I talked to a dude from Direct Broking and he told me that he could buy the shares for me as soon as they list. Ive got 10K should i buy 5k now and wait a month or buy all 10k on the first few minutes of listing ?

thanks

lambton
03-05-2006, 06:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by kr16

HI there guys im a small time invester.
I just want to know if i would be better to buy the shares on the day list or better to wait a month or so. I talked to a dude from Direct Broking and he told me that he could buy the shares for me as soon as they list. Ive got 10K should i buy 5k now and wait a month or buy all 10k on the first few minutes of listing ?

thanks


If you cannot buy at IPO - walk. But then again who knows?

Zaphod
03-05-2006, 06:45 PM
quote:Originally posted by kr16

HI there guys im a small time invester.
I just want to know if i would be better to buy the shares on the day list or better to wait a month or so. I talked to a dude from Direct Broking and he told me that he could buy the shares for me as soon as they list. Ive got 10K should i buy 5k now and wait a month or buy all 10k on the first few minutes of listing ?

thanks


Personally I'd wait a while, even though the price will likely skyrocket on the day of issue. The amount of hype that being pumped via the brokers and the news media, seems a little disproportionate to my current estimates of the value of the company.

Just my 2 cents [8D]

kr16
04-05-2006, 05:33 PM
Cool thanks i will find out the price on listing day if it goes 10% on the ipo price i will wait til it levels out.Im just a bit worried there's only 10 million worth of shares floating around and i dont think that heaps ... im sure someone out there could buy them all if they wanted to

Yossarian
05-05-2006, 01:32 PM
hate to break it to you, but it will surely be more than a 10% premium... pity I haven't got any!!

Futurz
05-05-2006, 01:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by Yossarian

hate to break it to you, but it will surely be more than a 10% premium... pity I haven't got any!!


Yep! My money is on 20-25%, around $1.90-$2.00 [:0]

Bring it on [:p]

Footsie
07-05-2006, 04:46 PM
I'd say it will close above $2.

I mean if delegats is trading at 1.60 odd then what for rakon?

lambton
08-05-2006, 10:21 AM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie

I'd say it will close above $2.

I mean if delegats is trading at 1.60 odd then what for rakon?


$2.40 close - day 1

kr16
08-05-2006, 06:21 PM
2.40 close day 1 but will up drop after a few months?

Footsie
08-05-2006, 07:48 PM
stocks like these can easily run up to P/e's of 50 or 60 times.

KR 16, as a first time investor, dont chase the stock... Even though its a great stock, i'd never buy something on a forward p/e of greater than 25x..... there is just too much hype and a real risk of getting burned.

IF you can buy for sub $2, go for it, otherwise forget it

lambton
09-05-2006, 08:43 AM
quote:Originally posted by kr16

2.40 close day 1 but will up drop after a few months?


I didn't say the stock would hold its price much beyond the glow and hype of the IPO.

kr16
09-05-2006, 06:25 PM
thanks footsie I'll try buy them as soon as i can on opening day, if not i will use a wait and c approach.

rmbbrave
13-05-2006, 09:52 AM
Rakon's $66m share issue over-subscribed
13 May 2006

Rakon, a manufacturer of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) for mobile phones and missiles, said yesterday its $66 million share offering was many times oversubscribed.


There were 41.25 million shares issued at $1.60 each in the initial public offering (IPO) which closed yesterday.

Applicants will be sent allocation notices on Monday and the shares will start trading on Tuesday.

Given the strong demand, brokers expect strong demand.

Rakon's managing director Brent Robinson said Rakon was extremely pleased with the level of interest with over 1800 investors applying for shares including staff.

On listing, Rakon will have about 39 per cent of its shares held by new institutional, retail investors and Rakon employees, with the remaining 61 per cent owned by shareholders that were on Rakon's register prior to listing.

The company is forecasting sales to increase 24 per cent to $90.6m next year, according to the prospectus. That would boost net profit to $7.2m from $4.4m although that forecast was based on an exchange rate of US67c compared with yesterday's level of US63c.

AdvertisementAdvertisementJonathan Oram for IPO lead manager UBS New Zealand said the fall in the dollar would make a material differnce. A one cent fall in the US dollar boosted profit by about $1m although imports of Japanese components meant that was offset by about a third from a similar sized fall of the kiwi against the yen.

The company has developed the world's smallest GPS receiver – the size of a baby's fingernail – which can decode GPS signals in devices such as cellphones.

Rakon enjoys a 60 per cent global marketshare in crystals for GPS.

Rakon sees huge potential for its crystals to be used in the 500-600 million mobile phones and 70-80 million cars made each year. It did elaborate on the potential use in weapons.

Its technology has also been used in the US military to help navigate smart bombs and missiles.

Rakon, winner of last year's New Zealand Trade and Enterprise export awards, manufactures quartz crystals with a dominant share in the world market. US industrial defence giant Rockwell International uses them at the heart of its smart bombs and missiles.

Around 37 per cent of Rakon's sales are in North America.

The proceeds from the IPO will be used to expand production capacity and develop new products. The Mt Wellington-based Rakon already employs 500 staff and it plans to increase staff by around 30 as marketing and production are ramped up.

Ahuareka Trust representing founder Warren Robinson and Robinson Family interests have sold down 35 million shares.

The company was founded by Mr Robinson in an Auckland basement in 1967. It started developing crystals for electrical goods and expanded into electronics such as oscillators and GPS receivers.

After listing, the family trust will retain a 22.6 per cent stake. Mr Robinson's sons Brent (managing director) and Darren (marketing director) will have stakes of 9.3 per cent each.

Peter Maire, founder of the GPS receiver company Navman, will retain a 15.6 per cent stake.

At $1.60 per share, the company will have a market capitalisation of around $170m.

Rakon said it has no plans to pay dividends.

Mr Oran said the high level of interest in Rakon was a strong endorsement of the company.

"Rakon's IPO demonstrates that the New Zealand capital markets are capable of valuing high growth companies," he said.

sniper
13-05-2006, 10:13 AM
"Given the strong demand, brokers expect strong demand."

Wow! And shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ...genuises at work. :D

rmbbrave
13-05-2006, 12:30 PM
Sniper,

No broker said that.

It is poor writing from the author of the article.

Rakon's market cap will be big enough to jump straight in the NZX50.

world_flyer
13-05-2006, 04:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave
Rakon's market cap will be big enough to jump straight in the NZX50.


Which means some good demand from the index funds too...

pimpit
13-05-2006, 08:21 PM
I applied for a job there.

Anna Naum
14-05-2006, 09:25 AM
Little money tied to the index, lots benchmarked but little indexed.

Futurz
16-05-2006, 08:08 AM
Rakon market pre-open @ 10am.
Market opens @ 11am.

My pick for the open price is $1.92 [:p]

rmbbrave
16-05-2006, 09:05 AM
Rakon ready to race out of starting stall

16.05.06
By Owen Hembry


Shares in Rakon look set to shrug off market weakness and surge when they debut on the sharemarket today.

Stephen Wright, head of advisory at ASB Securities, expected a favourable reception for the GPS technology company, which could push shares issued at $1.60 as high as $2 each.

"Having said all that, markets may be a bit weaker," he said.

The NZX was down on Friday and fell further yesterday, while markets around the world also weakened.

"There should still be, I would hope, some reasonable demand for Rakon because obviously it's a good story," said Wright.

The company designs and manufactures the high performance crystals and oscillators used in global positioning systems products.

Wright expected a mixture of retail and institutional buyers would look at increasing their holdings in Rakon because "everybody's got less than they wanted; that's for sure".

The Business Herald understands some shareholders were offering to sell shares at prices ranging from $1.80 to $2 on the eve of trading yesterday.

Macquarie Equities investment director Arthur Lim also thought a premium of between $1.80 and $2 was possible.

"All the indicators point towards it having a successful listing," Lim said.

"It had good reception in the pre-listing market [and] demand has been strong from not just New Zealand but reportedly from overseas."

The company would have a market capitalisation of $170 million based on the issue price of $1.60 a share.

The initial public offer of 41,250,000 shares valued at $66 million closed on Friday with allocations being made to retail brokers and institutions, while demand outstripped supply. There was no general or public pool for shares.

The money raised from the listing would fund growth through new product development, investment in manufacturing equipment and factory expansion.

On listing, about 39 per cent of Rakon's shares will be held by new investors, with the rest held by pre-listing shareholders including Navman founder Peter Maire.

Maire and his investment partners bought 20 per cent of the Auckland-based company in November.

TheBossMan
16-05-2006, 09:09 AM
Looks like this one is going to rocket? Market depth suggests plenty of interest and won't be surprised with $2.25 or more.

disc: hold none and won't buy today.

rmbbrave
16-05-2006, 10:04 AM
First trade @ $2.20

Futurz
16-05-2006, 10:23 AM
Bid $2.35...Damn what a great IPO [:p]:D[:p]:D

pimpit
16-05-2006, 11:38 AM
some one made good money selling 500k.

moimoi
16-05-2006, 03:46 PM
amazing that with 5.5mill shares traded today that all the sellers could have decided that RAK didn't fit their long term investment profile anymore....and that the sale was part of a process of reweighting their investment portfolio.;)

I mean no one would have stagged it for a (very) short term gain would they[?]

Snow Leopard
17-05-2006, 10:35 AM
Quite a premium over the listing price, and I for one am not complaining.
My bet is that there is little gain to be had and potentially some loss over the next six months and will not be extending my financial interest in this one at the moment.

Disc: :)

lambton
17-05-2006, 05:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Quite a premium over the listing price, and I for one am not complaining.
My bet is that there is little gain to be had and potentially some loss over the next six months and will not be extending my financial interest in this one at the moment.

Disc: :)


Agree - now far too high a P/E. Out, done and dusted.

Snow Leopard
24-05-2006, 10:39 AM
Holding it's own nicely :)

Snow Leopard
25-05-2006, 08:34 AM
So Fisher Funds have been keeping the SP up:
SSH Notice From Fisher Funds Management Limited (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RAK&E=NZSE&N=131756)

Snow Leopard
27-05-2006, 07:48 AM
The NZ Herald is having a damn good go at Rakon over the extent of their involvement in supplying components for military systems.
I can see there being some interesting [non nuclear] fall-out from this.

rmbbrave
27-05-2006, 09:20 AM
Revealed: Hidden story of NZ export star Rakon

Saturday May 27, 2006


An Auckland company, Rakon Ltd is winning plaudits for leading the way in cutting-edge technology, especially through making a key component in GPS navigation systems.

Last year it won the New Zealand Trade and Enterprise supreme award for exports. And when it launched on the Stock Exchange two weeks ago it was warmly received by investors.

But there is something that Rakon has been keeping quiet - it is the sole
supplier of an important component in the smart bombs made for the United States military.

A long article...

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10383769

bushbasher
28-05-2006, 12:18 PM
Interesting to see how market reacts. I don't think it is a surprise that Rakon supplied military contractors given it is a global market leader in its field and so much "Smart weapons" technology must include some form of GPS. Understandably Rakon would not have been keen to shout this from the rooftops. I think a potential concern is security - how this info came out the way it did - and my concern would be if this potentially affected its relationship with key customers like Rockwell.

redzone
28-05-2006, 01:46 PM
paper tiger....are fisher doing the same to SOE?

trackers
28-05-2006, 05:31 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10383752

wow.

trackers
28-05-2006, 05:35 PM
oo rmb posted it, oops ill check the previous page next time

trackers
28-05-2006, 05:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by bushbasher

Interesting to see how market reacts. I don't think it is a surprise that Rakon supplied military contractors given it is a global market leader in its field and so much "Smart weapons" technology must include some form of GPS. Understandably Rakon would not have been keen to shout this from the rooftops. I think a potential concern is security - how this info came out the way it did - and my concern would be if this potentially affected its relationship with key customers like Rockwell.


There'll be heads on the line over this, thats for damn sure. Some manager's got pissy and spilt the beans...

limegreen
28-05-2006, 07:37 PM
quote:
There'll be heads on the line over this, thats for damn sure. Some manager's got pissy and spilt the beans...


I don't have a definitive source that I recollect this from, but I'm pretty sure that this is ancient news, and one that has been doing the rounds for an eternity or 3 before the mainstream media notice...
But there could be some impact for those outside the loop.
It would be a bit like a feature on google and privacy...

redzone
28-05-2006, 07:37 PM
Cant see Clark doing anything...after todays poll she will huffing and puffing but she wont blow Rankons candle out...she will be pissed though no dout about that.....Rankon will probably take a hit...the Greens wont let this go though

pimpit
28-05-2006, 08:06 PM
I do not really see the bid deal, missiles need TCXO or similar that will work at high vibrations/g forces to run what ever processor inside the missile. same TCXO in lower spec package maybe used in your egg beater or similar.

I haven’t heard back from rakon about the job I applied, perhaps I should ring them up rather than ringing up Radford.

rmbbrave
29-05-2006, 08:13 AM
The Rakon files: Parts don't need export okay, says PM

Monday May 29, 2006
By Phil Taylor


Star technology firm Rakon's crystals and oscillators which are used in smart weapons' navigation systems do not require export permits "at the moment", says the Prime Minister.

"As far as we can ascertain, Rakon's oscillators and crystals are not on the internationally agreed list of controlled goods and therefore do not require export permits," a spokesman for Helen Clark said yesterday.

"This is a list that is compiled by member countries signed up to the export control regimes of which New Zealand is a member.

"These lists aren't static, they are added and deleted as technology changes and things develop, but as far as we can ascertain these oscillators and crystals have a wide range of potential uses in communication and navigation technology and they are not on any list of controlled goods. "That's where the Government's position is at the moment."

The Weekend Herald reported that despite claiming last August not to know the end use of its products, Rakon has knowingly provided a key component of smart bombs for the past 10 years, is developing a component of a product for the US nuclear defence programme, and one which turns dumb shells into smart shells.

The report disclosed that Rakon, which last year won the New Zealand Trade and Enterprise supreme award for exports, had not been upfront at times in the past with clients over complaints of faults with products.

JDAM smart bombs used in the war in Iraq have almost certainly contained key Rakon components.

The Government is opposed to the war, which the Prime Minister has described as "wrong".

Although export regulations don't specifically identify crystals and oscillators as products that must be vetted before being sent overseas, there are sections which appear to deal with goods for guidance systems.

These mention goods that can be used in "the handling, control ... of bombs, torpedoes, rockets [and] missiles ... target acquisition, designation, range-finding, surveillance or tracking systems ... guidance and navigation for [naval] military use" as exports that may be restricted.

Green MP Keith Locke said the issue could have been sorted out when it arose last August if the Ministries of Economic Development and Foreign Affairs and Trade, and the Security Intelligence Service, which talks about its "role in stopping New Zealanders being involved in anything connected with nuclear weapons", had investigated.

"It seems all these agencies were so bedazzled by Rakon's export success they were reluctant to investigate properly then and ask hard questions."


RAKON REPLIES

Statement issued by Rakon Limited, May 27, 2006:

In response to coverage in the New Zealand Herald, May 27:

There is no hidden story. Rakon has fully disclosed the use of its products for military and aerospace applications in its recently published offer document.

We are disappointed and surprised that the Herald did not contact Rakon to verify any of the details in its article.

Rakon is proud of the quality of its products and the consistently superior quality ratings achieved across its broad customer base.

None of our products are being designed or manufactured for use in nuclear weapons.

Rakon has not invented technology specifically for US smart bombs. Although the military and aerospace industry is an important market for Rakon, it comprises less than 4% of Rakon's output by unit volume.

We are disappointed that the Herald has taken internal emails and distorted them out of context to sensationalise them.

- Brent Robinson, managing director, Rakon Ltd

Snow Leopard
29-05-2006, 09:00 AM
So Rakon make a statement and the Herald replies (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10383992).
Perhaps they should both sign up for ShareTrader and fight it out here.
I certainly believe that the Herald is being rather immature now.

bushbasher
29-05-2006, 01:29 PM
Looks like the market's giving a big yawn to the Herald story. Perhaps investors waking up to the huge potential growth market represented by US military procurement.

limegreen
29-05-2006, 04:00 PM
This from the same newspaper that today announced that Mt Dobson skifield is in Marlborough. Nice work...

Krustytheclown
29-05-2006, 05:03 PM
If Hellen and Cullen want to take an outrageous step and stomp on Rakons actual/potential sales......Rakon should make some VERY public inquiries about setting up shop in Aussie.....would be very sad for NZ.

G.

barnsley bill
29-05-2006, 05:42 PM
who owns apn and what are they into (I bet if we dig deep enough we will find some unusual business investment by the foreign owners of our only national paper). It is bad enough when the govt rape shareholder value (TEL) now we have foreign owned media trying to do it.

bushbasher
31-05-2006, 05:25 AM
Isn't APN controlled by Tony Reilly's Independent News Group out of Ireland? I can't believe he would have any axe to grind with Rakon. Well known 'American' Rupert Murdoch may have been a more realistic candidate for such a conspiracy theory. I just think the Herald got lucky and jumped at the chance of an "exposee", especially as Rakon had just had such a successful IPO.

Think the company's responses to date have been appropriate, though interesting to see how they tackle Helen's Q&A.

dabru
01-06-2006, 03:57 PM
I think don't think the company could have asked for a better ad for buying it's shares.I'm a very happy shareholder.We need to put a few of those GPS'S on our MP's so we can keep a better track on them.

barnsley bill
01-06-2006, 05:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by dabru

I think don't think the company could have asked for a better ad for buying it's shares.I'm a very happy shareholder.We need to put a few of those GPS'S on our MP's so we can keep a better track on them.


ditto, and let the gargoyle kick up a fuss. Their entire technology could be loaded onto a laptop and in Sydney with a big juicy hello from the aussie govt trade ministry before Helen had a chance to roll over and ask heather to make breakfast.:D

Krustytheclown
01-06-2006, 07:06 PM
Rakon should go and tell Heellen to Fark-OOF.....or we will VERY PUBLICLY and our milti millions of future tax monies!..

NICE BB[8D]...... instead of being rude and telling Hellen to Fark-off they could just go see Heather very quickly.

G.

rmbbrave
01-06-2006, 10:49 PM
I bought some RAK at 2.50 on Monday.

3 days later it's at 2.75, up 10% !

bushbasher
02-06-2006, 09:46 AM
This news shouldn't be bad for the stock:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10384662

rmbbrave
04-06-2006, 10:09 AM
Herald story missed by mile
04 June 2006

By ROD ORAM
Good journalism contributes to economic progress; bad journalism detracts. This column is about the New Zealand Herald's naive and ill-judged coverage of Rakon.


Rakon matters because it is one of the few high-technology companies New Zealand has produced. For almost 40 years, it has developed unique technology, particularly in manufacturing, making it a world leader in a crucial component for GPS equipment and mobile phones.

Today, one in every two pieces of GPS equipment worldwide uses its components, as do one in three mobile phones.

Of course, there's no place for sycophantic journalism. Every company has to be examined warts and all. Only then can others learn the lessons, good and bad.

This is particularly true for Rakon. It is a crucial role model for ambitious New Zealand companies. They are heavily influenced by its evolution from a family-owned to a publicly listed company, how it ramps up investment in research, development and manufacturing and how it maintains technology and market leadership in a rapidly evolving sector.

But that is not what the Herald chose to write about. Its stories last weekend portrayed Rakon as a company that deceives its customers, the public and possibly the government. Its most inflammatory suggestion was that Rakon is involved in developing components for nuclear weapons.

Customers: The Herald said Rakon "has a significant documented issue with faults" and has sought to hide them from customers. Further, "it has struggled for years with product faults with the potential to cause a guided missile to go astray". And it has failed to deliver products on time.

The first two comments refer to components for Rockwell Collins in 2002-03 and the third to an 2003 incident involving parts for Motorola, both major US customers.

The Herald was wrong to extrapolate those into a wider claim of shoddy products and poor delivery. Rakon supplies about 40 million components a year thus the rate of product flaws is infinitesimally small. Responding to the Herald articles, Rockwell, a major US defence contractor and a Rakon customer since 1991, said it had always been satisfied with the company.

And the Herald was naive to extrapolate the Motorola case into a wider issue. Any journalist with a passing knowledge of the electronics industry knows it suffers sharp spikes in demand for components. At such times, all manufacturers scramble to deliver.

The public: The Herald said Rakon has continuously misled us by refusing to acknowledge its supply of components to Rockwell, a maker of GPS navigation equipment. Boeing incorporates the Rockwell gear into guided bombs it builds for the US military and US allies.

The Herald's surprise at the tight military security or the end use of Rakon's components was sheer naivety. The Rakon-Rockwell-Boeing connection was long documented and widely known to people who took an interest in Rakon.

Nuclear: The Herald said Rakon's components for smart bombs could also be incorporated in nuclear weapons, and that Rakon was developing specially for Rockwell a new line of "nuclear hardened" and "radiation hardened" components for nuclear weapons.

Rakon says it takes every precaution to ensure its components are not used in nuclear weapons.

On the second point, Rakon says the Herald lifted those phrases from a feasibility request from Rockwell that had nothing to do with weapons. Post-September 11, fears were running high in the US that terrorists might detonate a nuclear device. The radiation from it would knock out electronic devices such as aircraft navigation systems and telecommunication equipment. Rakon's work on making components capable of withstanding such shocks never got beyond the feasibility stage and never involved weapons.

The government: The Herald, extrapolating from its two wrong judgements on nuclear weapons, suggested Rakon might be compromising the government's licensing system for exports of sensitive military technology and New Zealan

dabru
07-06-2006, 12:57 PM
Going like a rocket. Up 24c so far today and hopefully hold on to it.

trackers
19-07-2006, 07:29 AM
Looks like Carmel has grabbed another 1% over the last day. Anyone in RAK atm?

sniper
19-07-2006, 07:50 AM
Repeating past behaviour is Fisher Fund with new IPO. Buy and keep buying to make performance short term look good until it blows up - BGR, RBD, TUA to name but three.

winner69
19-07-2006, 08:17 AM
Good strategy then in buying early on when carmel is on the prowl and taking advantage of her enthusiasm ..... as long as you don't hold beyond use by date

Rakon has been one of those opprtunities (no doubting carmel has helped the price)

go carmel ... go for another 5% or so of the company and one day you might be able to buy my shares

Ttops
16-08-2006, 10:52 PM
quote:Originally posted by trackers

Looks like Carmel has grabbed another 1% over the last day. Anyone in RAK atm?

And another 1% reported Trackers. Being naive about these details does it necessarily have to be over the last day. How often must substantial holders report?
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?T=iLdiEwgTFhhzo2e7-zNGiD&E=NZSE&S=RAK&N=135486
Disc: Held indirectly through KFL
Treetops

shasta
17-08-2006, 06:56 AM
Treetops

I believe once you breach the 5% threshold its every 1% +/- that requires a SSH to be filed

sniper
17-08-2006, 07:15 AM
Looking more like TUA everyday. KFL now has to keep buying to keep the sp up and other institutional investors keep feeding it to KFL.

Then, the sp gets hit ...... like TUA, BGR, RBD, POD etc.....

lambton
17-08-2006, 08:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Repeating past behaviour is Fisher Fund with new IPO. Buy and keep buying to make performance short term look good until it blows up - BGR, RBD, TUA to name but three.


Some may remember the Prudential submerging fund - stella performance in the early 90,s which Carmel ramped up and up and oops no one to buy when she wanted out. Yep agree following this little lady is one dangerous strategy because hers is only to buy buy buy. No brain work beyond that. [}:)]

Ttops
17-08-2006, 10:48 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Looking more like TUA everyday. KFL now has to keep buying to keep the sp up and other institutional investors keep feeding it to KFL.

Then, the sp gets hit ...... like TUA, BGR, RBD, POD etc.....

Interesting thought Sniper. Why did GPG buy TUA then? Are Ron and co crap as well or did they see some value. I don't think she ramps Rak. She seems to buy on short term downtrends. Carmel is no more a fool than Ron then. It depends what the fundamental value is and the potential for growth. Once she reaches 10%+ we'll see what happens to the sp when she slows the buying pressure. She'd be a fool to keep ramping it unnecessarily. Personally I think all people that work for brokers can't stand her. I wonder why. ;)

Thanks for the info Shasta.
Treetops

sniper
18-08-2006, 06:52 AM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Interesting thought Sniper. Why did GPG buy TUA then? Are Ron and co crap as well or did they see some value. I don't think she ramps Rak. She seems to buy on short term downtrends. Carmel is no more a fool than Ron then. It depends what the fundamental value is and the potential for growth. Once she reaches 10%+ we'll see what happens to the sp when she slows the buying pressure. She'd be a fool to keep ramping it unnecessarily. Personally I think all people that work for brokers can't stand her. I wonder why. ;)

Thanks for the info Shasta.
Treetops


Ahhh ... the thoughts of a primate living on a tree comes through in the form of Treetops.

Here are the facts so that you learn something - GPG sold TUA to KFL first and KFL kept buying on the market and kept ramping the sp all the way up to $4.80. Then, TUA sp started falling and when KFL tried to get out, it fell very quickly to $1.80. GPG then bought it off KFL for $2.10.

Same as RBD and BGR. Buy and keep buying is KFL's investment strategy. Creates a great illusion, huh?

Now you savvy? Come back to ground and try walking on 2 legs. ;)

bushbasher
18-08-2006, 12:34 PM
Surely the last few posts would be more appropriate on the KFL thread. Some of you are a little unfair as you pick out the shares that have gone down while ignoring the picks that have been great successes (RYM, MFT, RAK etc).

KFL doesn't use technical analysis to make its buy/sell decisions so just because a stock price is going down doesn't mean they will be looking to sell. They have specifically stated that they will make a decision to buy or sell on a number of factors, one of the major ones being confidence in the management team. In some cases they have waited till they have really lost confidence in management before dumping the particular stock. But overall they seem to have a pretty good record of picking good management teams in my view.

shasta
18-08-2006, 05:39 PM
As far as Rakon & KFL are concerned surely the motive is for KFL to get the magical 10.01%, & maintain a blocking stake, but do so gradually & not at any price.

Sniper, i do agree their methodology on selling is technically flawed, but that's their style & short term sp fluctuations do not trigger sell signals.

I had my doubts about the RAK investment to start with, but so far so good, and am happy to judge KFL's performance at the end of the financial year.

Disc: Hold RAK via KFL

glennj
20-08-2006, 08:19 AM
quote:Disc: Hold RAK via KFL

Also hold some RAK but prefer the direct route. Agree with some of Sniper's comments re KFL.

Back when Carmel started the Prudential Smaller Companies fund I put $40 k into her fund and directly invested another $40 k into the same sector and monitored relative performance for three years. After three years I sold the Smaller Companies fund stake because the direct investment performance was absolutely slaughtering what the fund was producing. (the fund did do about 60% one year then bombed)

I'm not suggesting that KFL is going to underperform the same as the old Pru Smaller Companies fund but I suspect direct investment will once again be better.

lambton
21-08-2006, 10:35 AM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by sniper


Looking more like TUA everyday. KFL now has to keep buying to keep the sp up and other institutional investors keep feeding it to KFL.

Then, the sp gets hit ...... like TUA, BGR, RBD, POD etc.....

Interesting thought Sniper. Why did GPG buy TUA then? Are Ron and co crap as well or did they see some value. I don't think she ramps Rak. She seems to buy on short term downtrends. Carmel is no more a fool than Ron then. It depends what the fundamental value is and the potential for growth. Once she reaches 10%+ we'll see what happens to the sp when she slows the buying pressure. She'd be a fool to keep ramping it unnecessarily. Personally I think all people that work for brokers can't stand her. I wonder why. ;)

Thanks for the info Shasta.
Treetops



Watch her melt away when the going gets tough and no amount of ramping can help her ailing prospects.

Ttops
21-08-2006, 04:39 PM
quote:Originally posted by lambton


quote:Originally posted by Treetops


quote:Originally posted by sniper


Looking more like TUA everyday. KFL now has to keep buying to keep the sp up and other institutional investors keep feeding it to KFL.

Then, the sp gets hit ...... like TUA, BGR, RBD, POD etc.....

Interesting thought Sniper. Why did GPG buy TUA then? Are Ron and co crap as well or did they see some value. I don't think she ramps Rak. She seems to buy on short term downtrends. Carmel is no more a fool than Ron then. It depends what the fundamental value is and the potential for growth. Once she reaches 10%+ we'll see what happens to the sp when she slows the buying pressure. She'd be a fool to keep ramping it unnecessarily. Personally I think all people that work for brokers can't stand her. I wonder why. ;)

Thanks for the info Shasta.
Treetops



Watch her melt away when the going gets tough and no amount of ramping can help her ailing prospects.


Another broker?[|)]
Actually I'm hoping RAK and all KFL shares retrace. Back to a 20% disc to Nav. ;)
Disc: I want to buy more while my broker friends are in fine fettle. Keep it up guys. :D

Flying Goat
21-08-2006, 05:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by sniper


Looking more like TUA everyday. KFL now has to keep buying to keep the sp up and other institutional investors keep feeding it to KFL.

Then, the sp gets hit ...... like TUA, BGR, RBD, POD etc.....


Why are you so hard on KFL and co...? What about RYM, MFT, PPL, WAM, MET, etc... have you picked better or more consistently? Although I was surprised with their buying into Delegat's... other than that they are on the ball, like swooping in on SP weakness when MHI was having a bad month a while ago. As for ramping up and driving down SP's maybe you should try buying on fundamentals, then this sort of short term phenomena (which happens when any and every large institution enters/exits a position with any haste) would not be so upsetting for you.

Cheers FG

Snow Leopard
08-11-2006, 08:17 AM
Half year announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RAK&E=NZSE&N=139521) suggests a full year NPAT of $9m65 or maybe better.
Although not complaining at the current share price ($3.46), anybody else regard the current forward P/E of 38 as a touch optimistic?

Flying Goat
08-11-2006, 07:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Half year announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=RAK&E=NZSE&N=139521) suggests a full year NPAT of $9m65 or maybe better.
Although not complaining at the current share price ($3.46), anybody else regard the current forward P/E of 38 as a touch optimistic?



Yes, PT, that thought definitely crossed my mind... have wondered about that ever since its initial post-IPO rally, but then again I don't really understand the business that well so maybe there is a reason that goes beyond the basic economic value in the traditional mathematical sense... No doubt someone will explain!

Cheers
FG

Footsie
08-11-2006, 09:00 PM
as long as it keeps beating expectations.... it will trade on a high mutiple

craic
09-11-2006, 12:31 PM
Just joined the faithful with purchase. Only 15 G but I work on numbers and P/E doesn't come into it.Tech companies like this have the capacity to blast fundamentals off the planet or die overnight.

mothership
13-12-2006, 04:31 PM
Bit of action on RAK today - up 22cps. Wish I could disclose I had some!

Footsie
13-12-2006, 09:38 PM
:) long a few

scamper
21-01-2007, 09:23 PM
Now that rak has had a breather for a month, is anyone watching and waiting to pounce?
cheers.

Placebo
22-01-2007, 02:23 PM
I like Rakon but noted in their first half result that the bosses were careful to manage expectations about full year prospects. Here's hoping the market isn't getting ahead of itself on this one. My reading of the half year statement was they were saying `yes it's going well so far, but let's not assume one half year will translate into good full year profits".

If not I will buy on the correction :D

scamper
22-01-2007, 04:23 PM
Yes, and 370 is shaping up as a fairly solid resistance level.
I see in their november 1/2 report that they made 5.6M, and reckoned that they were "well placed to meet a full year EBIT forecast of 14.8M.
I'm a-watching.

mothership
01-02-2007, 01:13 PM
When I last looked, up 17c. Anyone know why? I know they have had a bit of publicity recently. Or does someone know about the half year results?

scamper
01-02-2007, 01:40 PM
After 5 weeks butting up against 370, today's jump seems a fairly significant breakout.
While it's only 4.3%, it certainly comes out of nowhere, which smells a bit ratty to me.
I suspect that 'someone' does know 'something' and is acting upon it while scamper snuffles round in the dark.
but at least my conscience is clear.

Footsie
01-02-2007, 08:32 PM
It will be Carmel and her gang again i bet.

According to the news tho, its up due to RAK's largest customer posting a record profit result....

it could also have been a short cover rally, there was someone with a 100k order on the offer at 3.70 a few days ago...

mothership
02-02-2007, 11:40 AM
well, the price continues to go up today. Now I really wish I had some!

KJ
02-02-2007, 12:53 PM
KFL have increased their holding recently.

Placebo
02-02-2007, 01:48 PM
*sigh* Well geez, I am soooo glad I parked my dough on Charlies and not on Rakon [xx(]. Then again, you have to take a punt somewhere, right? Perhaps I should've just put 50 sheckles on each. I'd be up a whole groat!

jke_brown
02-02-2007, 02:18 PM
nice, I have been in since 310c. next three years will be interesting with the new GPS receiver they have developed, with the compulsory GPS in mobile phone(s) from 2010 hope they can secure supply contracts with Motorola (one of their current customers) or similar.

Jackie

Year of the Tiger
02-02-2007, 03:33 PM
Still got mine from the IPO.

Very happy chappess here [^]

Footsie
02-02-2007, 08:29 PM
ditto got mine in the ipo

it was the trade off with my broker for not getting any Wotif

I only wish, like Carmel i'd loaded up at $2.20 on opening day....... with a start like that it was always destined for bigger things

ahhh harry hindsight

craic
09-02-2007, 09:35 AM
Whats with RAK at present. Price is galloping up over the past two or three days with another 14 cents this morning.

mothership
09-02-2007, 11:14 AM
If I owned any, I guess I would be saying that the market is just recognising the future value of this innovative company. Since I don't own any, I can't see any good reason for the galloping price - you might expect that if, for instance, they had secured a huge contract with a major customer, or just found a terrific new product. But there hasn't been an announcement. Hmmmm...

craic
09-02-2007, 11:49 AM
Problem is that people "know" well in advance of any announcement. It might be called insider trading but that form of IT seems to be acceptable. Just like those who "knew" that Goldman-Sachs were going to upgrade AIA and lifted the price. Or maybe they knew I needed the money to fix my wifes hip?

mothership
09-02-2007, 01:21 PM
Another 27c so far today - watch for some profit taking?!

TheBossMan
09-02-2007, 01:25 PM
whats NZX doing? No 'please explain' yet?

craic
09-02-2007, 02:28 PM
Depth shows few sellers and lots of buyers up to a cent below the current price. Profit takers might find that they should have waited

Placebo
09-02-2007, 02:34 PM
I am consoling myself in the knowledge that I have picked RAK in the Sharetrader Investor comp. So at least I am in the virtual money [B)]

mothership
09-02-2007, 04:01 PM
Me too - and ABA which is doing well. Happily, my other picks for the comp are likely to be reminders that my hunches are more likely to wrong than right so not to commit actual $ to them!

Footsie
09-02-2007, 09:16 PM
something is up here!

result must be good, new contract to put GPS in the iphone ! hah not soo crazy if you think about it
who knows.

NZ market leaks like the titanic

Year of the Tiger
10-02-2007, 02:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by Footsie



NZ market leaks like the titanic


Let's just hope it doesn't go down the same way....[:o)]

Cheers all
YOTT

Disc. Still hold RAK from IPO [^]

COLIN
10-02-2007, 08:20 PM
quote:Originally posted by Year of the Tiger





Cheers all
YOTT

Disc. Still hold RAK from IPO [^]



Welcome back, YOTT. (I must have noticed your absence for some reason - I'm sure it was a positive reason!)

Year of the Tiger
11-02-2007, 04:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by COLIN



Welcome back, YOTT. (I must have noticed your absence for some reason - I'm sure it was a positive reason!)


Thanks for the 'welcome back' Colin. I've actually been reading the posts here on a regular basis but I guess I'm one of the slackers who doesn't really contribute to the site. And I have to confess that I'm not really a slacker, its just that I feel I don't have a lot to contribute so I just read what everyone else has got to say.

I suppose that I could ramble on incessantly about all sorts of inane garbage but I think there are already a few here that have the monopoly on that.... :D So for fear that I start competing for a slot in the garbage bin, I will sign off now..

Cheers to all investors, traders, casual onlookers, and anyone else who frequents this site. Good luck for 2007, and just to get back on topic, RAK is treating me very nicely just now...;)

Lizard
11-02-2007, 06:36 PM
I agree with Colin. Nice to read your posts YOTT. But most of all...could you tell me the name of your broker ;)?

I've been told full-service is the way to go for IPO's, but the best I can get out of mine is the occasional lunch... I think the last IPO I was offered would have been FTX!

COLIN
12-02-2007, 08:51 AM
quote:Originally posted by craic

Whats with RAK at present. Price is galloping up over the past two or three days with another 14 cents this morning.

Now we know what was up, there must surely be an enquiry as to who took advantage of advance knowledge?

TheBossMan
12-02-2007, 09:55 AM
quote:Now we know what was up, there must surely be an enquiry as to who took advantage of advance knowledge?

In other words, ...Tui Ad

craic
12-02-2007, 11:57 AM
Colin, there's a bob or two to be made by astute observation of the market on a day-to-day basis if you have the cash and the bottle to follow through. AIA was also a good example. this share languished for ages in the slow lane, then recently it moved up and up for no apparent reason - that is until JB Were Goldman-Sachs announced that the profit potential was understated etc. It seems to be acceptable, and possibly hard to prove, that insiders can make a bit of hay while the sun shines, but, if they decide to profit from misfortune by dumping with foreknowledge of impending doom, then it's a different matter.
Any bets on where this will go after the embargo is lifted? I would expect it to get close to 500cps by the weekend.

Year of the Tiger
12-02-2007, 08:54 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

I agree with Colin. Nice to read your posts YOTT. But most of all...could you tell me the name of your broker ;)?

I've been told full-service is the way to go for IPO's, but the best I can get out of mine is the occasional lunch... I think the last IPO I was offered would have been FTX!


Hi Liz, Nice to see you again. I hope the holiday season went well for you and your family.

Actually I use ASB OST for all my buying (and occasionally selling) of shares.

The first shares that I bought back nearly 4 years ago (except for TPW which I've held since they were given as freebies to all their customers in the mid 90's [^]), I bought through an ABN Amro broker who recommended to me POA, SKC & NZX. I tucked them in a file and forgot about them for a year or so then decided to pull them out and try to learn a bit about the companies. That got my interest a little primed so I decided to start reading about companies and keeping my ear to the ground as to what the punters were thinking.

I decided at that stage that if I was going to be buying shares, then I wanted to be in control of what I was doing and not relying on a broker for advice. (Hmmm, sounds like I'm a bit of a control freak doesn't it? ;)) Since then I've built up a small portfolio of both NZX and ASX shares that keep me interested.

Back to the topic of Rakon. I saw on the ASB OST site, information about the pending RAK IPO. I got a copy of the prospectus and was quietly confident with the type of business they are in. I put in a maximum order to ASB and hoped for the best.

There endeth the story..... :)

Cheers all
YOTT

Steve
13-02-2007, 06:29 AM
Here is the answer?

Rakon's $54m buy sets off scramble (http://www.stuff.co.nz/3959749a13.html)
Technology company Rakon is buying part of a British firm for $54.1 million as it aims for a bigger share of a growing market for the crystal oscillators used in electronic devices.


Rakon will pay for the deal with a $60 million share issue.

Professional investors are expecting a "lolly scramble" for up to 16 million new Rakon shares.

craic
13-02-2007, 03:27 PM
Tom Hall, have you worked it out yet? Steepest plateau i've seen in a long time.

Steve
14-02-2007, 06:25 AM
The share issue is expected to help RAK get into the NZX50 index which should mean more support from the institutions...

Year of the Tiger
14-02-2007, 08:45 AM
Rakon Limited - Announcements

RAK
14/02/2007
ENTITLE

REL: 0834 HRS Rakon Limited

ENTITLE: RAK: Rakon announces record date for Share Purchase Plan

Rakon Limited announced to NZX on Monday 12 February 2007 that it had agreed
to purchase the Frequency Control Product division of C-MAC Microtechnology.
This was funded by a placement to institutional investors. Rakon also
announced its intention to offer eligible shareholders the opportunity to
subscribe for up to NZ$5,000 worth of shares through a share purchase plan.
Proceeds will be used to fund further capital expansion. It is proposed that
the record date for the share purchase plan will be Wednesday 28 February
2007 and documentation will be sent to eligible shareholders shortly after
that date. Further details about the terms and conditions of the share
purchase plan will be provided shortly.

craic
14-02-2007, 10:48 AM
Tom Hall, Rakkon had made two announcements before my (PM reply to you. I take all announcements through my email and also use other up-to-date sources. By the time I replied, I already knew the full implications of this whole deal. As for the future, RAK Profit is up and the value will grow but there is likely to be a lot of dealing on the market related to profit taking and speculation up to 28 Feb. After that there should be a significant drop.

trackers
19-02-2007, 09:24 AM
Looks like old Carmel is picking up a few today

COLIN
19-02-2007, 10:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by trackers

Looks like old Carmel is picking up a few today

Also she got some in the placement, at a healthy discount.

craic
19-02-2007, 11:09 AM
Colin ??? Got some in the placement at discount. Have you had the offer to shareholders? A bit remote here and nothing in the post this morning.

COLIN
19-02-2007, 11:23 AM
quote:Originally posted by craic

Colin ??? Got some in the placement at discount. Have you had the offer to shareholders? A bit remote here and nothing in the post this morning.

Craic - I meant that Carmel got some in the placement. I am not a direct investor in RAK, but have a diluted interest by virtue of my holding in KFL - along with PPL, MET, FRE, RYM, MFT, MHI, DGL, and all the others in Carmel's bag of goodies. My only concern is that maybe the prices of some of these are being supported by Carmel's continued buying interest; take that away and would the respective prices hold up?
I'm sure your RAK offer will reach you in good time - these Maori runners are actually quite fast!

Year of the Tiger
19-02-2007, 12:27 PM
quote:Originally posted by craic

Colin ??? Got some in the placement at discount. Have you had the offer to shareholders? A bit remote here and nothing in the post this morning.


Craig, see my post of 14/2/07....

RAK
14/02/2007
ENTITLE

REL: 0834 HRS Rakon Limited

ENTITLE: RAK: Rakon announces record date for Share Purchase Plan

.....It is proposed that the record date for the share purchase plan will be Wednesday 28 February 2007 and documentation will be sent to eligible shareholders shortly after that date.....

Cheers,
YOTT

hairdresser
07-03-2007, 09:10 AM
Does anyone know whether the market has factored into the current Share Price how the increased demand for crystals, "if" Apple put GPS into the new upmarket iPOD's, would effcet the crystal price???

Phaedrus
07-03-2007, 09:41 AM
You bet it has HD!

The basic tenet of Dow Theory is that "The market discounts everything". This means that everything that can possibly affect the price fundamentally, politically, psychologically or otherwise is reflected in the shareprice. (Murphy, 1986)

COLIN
07-03-2007, 09:47 AM
And inclusion in the Top-50 is probably a contributing factor to the jump in the sp today. (But of course the Efficient Market Theory should already have foreseen that!)

hairdresser
07-03-2007, 10:15 AM
Thanks Phaedrus.

I like DOW, its a good simple trading system [based at least intially on railroad stocks], my understanding of it is don't try to pick the top or the bottom of the market, and run with the LT trend. Be happy to miss the top and bottom to avoid false signals [My most expensive trading/investment errors have come from this also my most profitable buys]

I like the strong market hypothesis but stocks move every day on no new information, people are trying to second guess [and third guess] what others are thinking. Traders using computer algorithms make up the bulk of the volume markets offshore. The only info they need to make trades is price and as they all effectively "collude" with the other algorithms to set price so I suspect there are many cases of mispricing [the Emperors New Clothes effect].

I haven't really been able to get any info on RAK, but I sort of understand supply and demand. If RAK have 50%+ market share and the demand of crystals goes up [due to widespread adoption of crystals in portable consumer devices] their profits should go up quite a bit.

IMO the current price seems to take into account the potential downside of NZD, the recent acquisition and some organic growth. If GPS goes mass market this stock could possibly be a multibagger... or maybe not.

Thanks to your advice I've started using zig zags, as I can understand them and it seems to to be as good as any other method to implement the DOW thoery. I like the zig zag on RAK at the moment. DOW tells me to buy the current dip even without knowing much about the stock....

Cheers

I try to go 2/3 long [or short in the case of overvalued stocks] and use the zig zags to swing trade the other 1/3.

craic
07-03-2007, 11:44 AM
My equations all throw up RAK and I bought 7,000 odd in recent months. So far thecapital growth is $1 per share and I have sold everything else in my portfolio and now look forward to the extra $5,000 of RAK that I believe that I am entitled to at $410 cps? I am prepared to sit on my cash for a time because there is too much volatility (risk) around at this time.

KJ
07-03-2007, 12:26 PM
Anyone received the docs for entitlement to $5000 worth yet?

Zaphod
07-03-2007, 04:31 PM
Let's hope that our beloved Government see fit to dish out tax-breaks for R&D; RAK could benefit significantly from such a change in policy.

And no, I haven’t received the doc’s yet.

COLIN
07-03-2007, 08:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ

Anyone received the docs for entitlement to $5000 worth yet?


According to the company's announcement to the NZX (2.39 p.m.) they were being mailed today.

KJ
08-03-2007, 09:49 AM
Thanks-I see that now.

Zaphod
10-03-2007, 05:22 PM
Any predictions on what will occur after the placement? I'm putting my money where my mouth is on this one, and have gone for the full placement.

craic
10-03-2007, 08:52 PM
Zaphod, happy to agree. I am sorely tempted to buy up to $100,000 worth of this company. I will wait until the dust settles on the new issue. On the other hand, I am not sure how vulnerable a company like this is to Chinese and others.

Year of the Tiger
10-03-2007, 10:40 PM
quote:Originally posted by Zaphod

Any predictions on what will occur after the placement? I'm putting my money where my mouth is on this one, and have gone for the full placement.


I'm picking up my full entitlement as well...

YOTT

KJ
11-03-2007, 07:58 AM
Will certainly take up my entitlement and add to in the future-have a feeling that it is going to have a good few yrs.

kiwigooner
12-03-2007, 08:18 PM
quote:Originally posted by KJ

Anyone received the docs for entitlement to $5000 worth yet?


Is anyone still waiting to recieve their letter confirming entitlement?

I bought RAK shares on last day of registration (28th). Does any one know whether I qualify for entitlement, and if so, who should I contact to recieve confirmation. Cheers

KJ
13-03-2007, 09:10 AM
Got mine a few days ago

KJ
13-03-2007, 09:17 AM
Suggest you ring Computershare Investor Services Ltd-09 488 8700.

scamper
13-03-2007, 10:27 AM
have just spoken to asb (am an on-line investor) about not receiving letter confirming entitlement.

because i bought 'so close to registration' (27 Feb), the registry has sent my letter to asb who will send it down to me 'sometime this week'.
closing date to take up entitlement is 2 april.

so you might like to ring your broker to jiggle his/her/its memory... cheers.

trackers
17-04-2007, 01:51 PM
Am looking at picking up a few RAK given the recent weakness... Anyone have any opinions as to its currency rate exposure?

hairdresser
18-04-2007, 02:01 AM
I've picked up some more as well.

I am not worried about the currency, the high growth in GPS in mobile devices should make the currency moot.

Cheers

KJ
18-04-2007, 07:18 AM
I have taken a different tack-have sold down over the last 2 weeks.All looks like it has got ahead of itself.

craic
18-04-2007, 02:05 PM
Had a look at depth. Most of the trades today are insignificant amounts - rats and mice. Looks to be a good time to have some cash to buy.

FarmerGeorge
18-04-2007, 02:53 PM
Guys I could be on the wrong track here but isn't a high NZ dollar only a bad thing for exporters who are price takers and have relatively poor and unstable distribution channels (I'm thinking commodities). A high NZ dollar could be a good thing for Rakon if they are smart: if their products are excellent and they aren't competing on price but in other ways then demand may not be related to price. All it will mean is that they get more USD (for example) than they would have for the same amount of NZD expenditure. If they keep those USD in that form rather than convert the currency they will be able to convert later when conditions are more favourable.
I don't hold and haven't investigated, obviously this only works if they price in NZ dollars. Just my thoughts :)

Phaedrus
18-04-2007, 04:38 PM
Trackers, Hairdresser, Craic - Technically, it is not yet time to buy RAK. Take a look at the RSI oscillator plotted here. See how, while RAK is currently "OverSold", no buy signal will be generated until the RSI climbs out of the "OverSold" zone. Previous RSI Buy signals are marked by green arrows - without exception these all flag excellent entry points. Maybe you or I could occasionally get lucky and beat an oscillator like this, but personally, I would rather back an objective system rather than any individual's opinion. Including my own!

KJ, Technically, it is not yet time to sell RAK. The chart below shows an assortment of trend indicators, none of which have triggered Sell signals. Take a look at the OBV - a continued nice steady rise, with no sign of any "smart money" getting out. See how the slow Stochastic oscillator is still well within positive territory (above 50%) and has been for this entire uptrend - so far. It pays to give stocks like this a bit of room to breathe - the big risk here is that too tight a system stands to flick you out prematurely only to watch the stock go on to make new highs.

Technically, RAK is currently a "Hold".

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RAK418001.gif

KJ
18-04-2007, 08:32 PM
Thanks Phaedrus-yes, I did recognise that RAK was technically not a "sell" yet.I simply felt it was time to get out with a good profit.
Past experience has told me that when a stock runs up as quickly as this,and sits on a PE of 45 plus,it can fall very quickly.
Of course I do not know if this will happen.

trackers
19-04-2007, 08:24 AM
Thanks for that Phaedrus, enlightening as always...

Might wait a bit to see what happens with sp, and nzd/usd...

hairdresser
19-04-2007, 08:48 AM
Thanks Phaedrus, enlightening as always. I bought all mine above $4.00 and will continue to buy more on the dips.

No coincidence that the current weakness on low volume is immediately after the in the money allocation.

I really think this is undervalued there is no good coverage on this stock should be trading at around 20x with the new acquisition. First mobile phones with GPS are shipping now, I expect that every mobile phone manufacturer will have a GPS phone out within 12 months [except maybe MOT LOL].

Every phone will need a crystal.....

Also how are you doing in the US???

Phaedrus
19-04-2007, 11:52 AM
HD, I am finding the US difficult to call and hard going at the moment. I generally run 6 trades there, varying the mix depending on my overall market view. If I am very Bullish they would be 6 longs, very Bearish, 6 shorts. If the market is generally flat, 3 longs and 3 shorts. My uncertainty is best illustrated by the fact that I currently have 2 long and 2 short trades.

PS: RAK has just now triggered a Buy signal, though of course the Close may be different.

craic
19-04-2007, 11:57 AM
You,re having some trouble with NZX as well. RAK is up 16 cents at the moment I wish I had followed my own advice yesterday and bought some.A prediction. I need $40,000 by Oct Nov this year to replace my boat and pay for an overseas holiday - I expect to get most of it from RAK.

redzone
19-04-2007, 12:39 PM
then buy SOE

ratkin
19-04-2007, 12:44 PM
Sell your car and buy a sealegs amphibious vehicle!!

In Auckland traffic it should have no trouble keeping up

Phaedrus
19-04-2007, 01:29 PM
Trouble Craic? I think not. It takes a rise in price to trigger an oscillator Buy signal. No rise, no signal. I have acted on previous RSI buy signals for RAK and have had no reason to be disappointed. If this system as plotted had given a series of Sell signals for RAK, or if it had flicked you out just before today's big rise, your criticism would perhaps have been warranted - but it didn't. There have been NO sell signals at all. In short, I think TA is performing very well indeed with this stock.

craic
19-04-2007, 02:16 PM
Redzone - if I waste your money on software that only services dentists - and hasn't been going too well lately - then I would likely finish up in a paddling pool with a rubber ducky.

Jay
19-04-2007, 03:04 PM
Phaedrus, thanks again for your charts and education.
Regards to RAK you say the RSI triggered buys, agree.
However, do you not use it for sell's when it shows "overbought" that is, it turns over from above the "70"? If not are you using trendlines/MA's/trailing stops mainly for sells ?

Phaedrus
19-04-2007, 03:35 PM
Jay, When a stock is in an uptrend, oscillators such as the RSI give a string of useless Sell signals all the way up. (There have been about 9 so far for RAK.) You want to exit when the uptrend weakens or ends and this is best acomplished by using trend indicators. There are many and the ones you mention are excellent examples. The Directional Movement indicator is another good one, but everyone has their individual preferences.

Similarly, when a stock is in a downtrend, oscillators give a string of useless Buy signals all the way down. Trend indicators should be utilised here too.

Jay
19-04-2007, 03:54 PM
Cheers Phaedrus

hairdresser
19-04-2007, 07:53 PM
Phaedrus

Trying having a ply on the NASDAQ.

I am following about 6 stocks on the NASDAQ and doing quite well. I am slowly upscaling my investments as my margin account is growing. I did pretty well on the bounce after the China thing but it took a couple of weeks.

I did pretty well on AAPL after it dropped down to $90. You have to be fast I've missed a few good trades just by delaying pressing the button by a few seconds waiting for that one last tick up or down.

I got killed on Micron after earnings, I thought it would bounce after it tanked to $11.50. Set up a stop at 11.35 and went to Australia on holiday, when I got back it had dropped to 11.00 and my stop was triggered but I accidentally only set it to the default 100 shares. I got most of it back the next day. Watch for this stock to tank after Friday.

Also I couldnt wakeup in time last night and missed my exit point on ADBE, hopefully it will be sold down tonight. Anything below 42.50 will be fine.

My current open positions are short on Motorola and Adobe.

I'm very confident MOT will tank tonight, max pain for Fridays option expiry is 17.50, ER was pathetic [really bad guidance] and the gap down on ER was closed today. currently at $18.21. If your up tonight it might be worth a look.

Re the market Record DOW headlines usually signal a red flag to the hedge funds, I expect with the next bit of negative news the hedgies to sell down the DOW again. I think you're right to be looking short. I would recommend that you hang in there you can make a lot of money very quickly in a short space of time. Unlike the good old NZX...

If your interested I could tell you how I work out my trading strategies. I would be interested in hearing yors, I dont know of anyone else who trades in the US.

Toulouse - Luzern
14-05-2007, 11:58 AM
Up 15 today.
Today is news day.
372K volume includes a 100,000 trade at 498...

hairdresser
14-05-2007, 12:16 PM
News day tomorrow will be good I'm sure.

New MOT and NOK phones have onboard GPS....

Disc: RAK my favorite NZ stock

hairdresser
14-05-2007, 04:04 PM
Did anyone else buy today???

Placebo
15-05-2007, 08:26 AM
Tomorrow is Rakon's 1st anniversary as a listed company...?

hairdresser
15-05-2007, 10:37 AM
Conference call is going well, cell phone manfs are going towards autonomous solutions supplying MOT [due to announce new prods this week}.

Moving manufacturing to China to reduce cost and to be close to manufactures and suppliers.

Work closely with customers to match supply with demand.

Competitors competing on price reducing margins.

High Kiwi dollar impacts on EBITDA around $1.5m per c. Full year 2008 forecast dollar rate is 68c.

No plans to list on NASDAQ.

Overall very positive, looks like they will continue to enjoy strong growth for a while yet.

Placebo
15-05-2007, 01:59 PM
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4060389a13.html

Hooray!!:D

COLIN
15-05-2007, 09:31 PM
Now why have Fisher Funds reduced their holding in RAK from over 10% to just a little under? To remove a possible hindrance to someone mounting a takeover? Seems highly unlikely. They don't usually operate like this, or engage in selling off slivers by way of profit-taking, such is their faith in the future of the relatively small number of companies in which they invest. (For instance, I thought they might have reduced their holding of RYM to within their 20% self-imposed limit for any one stock, held by KFL, but I think they are still slightly over with that stock).
Anyone care to have a guess at what Carmel might be up to - preferably an educated guess!

Ttops
15-05-2007, 10:32 PM
Most unusual for KFL but FF reduced by about 1% not KFL necessarily. But my "guess" is freeing up funds for increasing FF stake in SLG which was rocketing up. Perhaps Carmel thought SLG appeared to have the better prospects at the time as a takeover.
Possibly a mistake in hindsite? [V]

craic
16-05-2007, 07:15 AM
Colin, I noticed the same.Rak and SLG make up the backbone of my portfolio. At a guess I would say they are removing a possible impediment to takeover [u]interest</u> rather than to any specific company or bid. A company like this is like all of us, keen o own a share of likely or possible takeovers.

hairdresser
16-05-2007, 09:11 AM
A simple explanation is a little bit of portfolio rebalancing.

Placebo
16-05-2007, 11:14 AM
Come off it, Hairdresser. Conspiracy theories and crystal ball gazing are much more fun than common sense ;)

redzone
16-05-2007, 04:56 PM
I had a call to buy some today from Craigs ...they had a placement to pass on...they must have got them at a good price probably about $5...I passed over ..have enough

COLIN
16-05-2007, 09:07 PM
quote:Originally posted by redzone

I had a call to buy some today from Craigs ...they had a placement to pass on...they must have got them at a good price probably about $5...I passed over ..have enough


Doesn't seem as though the size of this unwanted placement is too great, otherwise the market price would be depressed by the "overhang" effect. Presumably it was a true placement (from the earlier new share issue) and not just trying to find longer-term homes for the shares that Carmel has dumped?

hairdresser
17-05-2007, 09:02 AM
This should hold the price down in the short term.

RAK
17/05/2007
RELINT

REL: 0845 HRS Rakon Limited

RELINT: RAK: Rakon Limited: Sale of shares by Director

Rakon Limited (NZX: RAK) announced that Peter Maire, director and shareholder
of the company today sought approval to sell approximately 1.6 million of the
16.5 million shares he holds in the company. Mr Maire plans to use the
proceeds to fund other investments he is involved with.

Mr Maire and the other incumbent shareholders entered an arrangement at the
time of the IPO in May 2006 whereby they agreed not to sell any shares in the
company until 30 days after the 2007 Full Year Earnings Release (which will
be 14 June 2007). That agreement was between those shareholders, the Company
and the Lead Manager of the IPO UBS New Zealand Limited. The agreement
allows for a waiver of the restrictions on selling.

The Board of Rakon and UBS after meeting today have concluded that given the
close proximity of the request to both the earnings announcement and end of
the restriction period, combined with the strong demand for Rakon's shares in
the market, that it is appropriate to waive this restriction. The
restriction will be lifted as from 8 am on Monday 21 May 2007.

Bryan Mogridge, Chairman of the Board confirmed that neither Mr Maire nor any
of the other directors intend to sell any further shares in the foreseeable
future.

Further information contact Bryan Mogridge on 021 931 355 or Brent Robinson
09 573 5554.
End CA:00147765 For:RAK Type:RELINT Time:2007-05-17:08:45:32

tobo
17-05-2007, 11:23 AM
any ideas as to whether this parcel will trade privately in one go, and hence not really affect sp, or if this means market will be flooded (in which case it's time to go shopping!)

hairdresser
17-05-2007, 04:03 PM
I think they will try and place it in one or a couple of hits,

Maire is obviously keen to get the cash asap [he didn't want to wait for the end of the 30 day embargo period before selling], so he would probably take a discount on the market price.

They would already have a buyer lined up and a price or he wouldn't be announcing.

I expect the price to remain capped as the firms that take the placement [below market] cash in on the arbitrage profits.

tobo
17-05-2007, 06:29 PM
HD, Yes, that makes total sense. Thanks for explanation. I didn't think through the sequence of a firm taking placement and finding buyer.

Ttops
17-05-2007, 07:42 PM
Colin,FF might have been approached or have heard of this placement and wanted to reduce in advance? Is this insider trading?

COLIN
17-05-2007, 08:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Treetops

Colin,FF might have been approached or have heard of this placement and wanted to reduce in advance? Is this insider trading?


I'll have to ponder that one. I think it could be viewed as "insider trading" only if they knew that the vendor was Peter Maire reducing his stake, given that the presence of Maire on the share register will have engendered confidence in many investors in RAK.

Toulouse - Luzern
20-05-2007, 02:20 PM
Rebalancing is my pick also. ;)

The first two weeks in Nov 2006 were great for RAK (+15%) then the SP was sideways (ish) until Feb 2007.

Another great surge in the first couple of weeks (+26%)of Feb 2007 then sideways again (Shanghai Sling anyone?). Why not lock in some of this RAK SP gain. A 26% lift in RAK SP in a couple of weeks may change many portfolio dynamics.

The change in FFM SSH notice says the FFM reduction was from Feb to May 2007. This was when RAK SP was going sideways again. I don't see it as FFM dumping this stock. The change in FFM SSH was from 10.93% to 9.61% - they are still holders.

PS: With the profit increase 122% (from memory) I calculate that the PE will halve from the 50 (ish) that it was. If things track along like this then RAK looks fine. RAK looks scalable.

hairdresser
20-05-2007, 11:29 PM
P/E's arent great for valuing growth stocks. You may like to look at the PEG. This is the P/E divided by earnings growth. If you assume 5 year earnings growth of 40% pa ie 120 next year and less in each subsequent year you end up with a PEG of around 1.25. Which doesn't look too expensive. ALso growth could be higher for 2008 as assumed USD x-rate is 70c they get an extra $1.5m of EBITDA for each c below 70c.

For comparison

Adobe 1.97
MSFT 1.49
AAPL 1.37
Intel 1.52
Motorola &gt;5

Obviously PE's and PEG's are just headline type numbers but it seems to support potential price appreciation for Rakon.

cazzer
21-05-2007, 08:40 AM
Peter Maire's sell-down. This morning, appears that 1.6m shares crossed at $5.02.

Placebo
21-05-2007, 08:48 AM
hairdresser: ForBarr obviously don't agree with your PEG methods; they have downgraded RAK to a `reduce' because they think the stock is overvalued.

hairdresser
21-05-2007, 09:18 AM
What was the reason for the downgrade? I don't recall them asking any questions on the CC.

I can't believe that no-one here has heard of PEG.

Placebo
21-05-2007, 09:32 AM
comment was to the effect `we think the price has got ahead of itself'. in other words, overvalued, a little irrational exuberance..

craic
21-05-2007, 09:50 AM
Thats why its now up to 526

hairdresser
21-05-2007, 09:55 AM
I saw that comment too, my interpretation from anaylst speak to the English language was "we don't really understand why the SP has gone up, hopefully it will go down so we can buy some"

FYI the analysts had a visit to the factory after the CC, none of this has been reported, also Mr Maire had no trouble placing his 1.6m parcel following earnings.

IMO GPS will be pervasive in mobile devices in a few years.

COLIN
21-05-2007, 12:57 PM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

What was the reason for the downgrade? I don't recall them asking any questions on the CC.

I can't believe that no-one here has heard of PEG.


Yes, we have heard of her, but we're not sure yet that the time has come to place RAK's PEG up there with Bill Gates' PEG - they're two different ladies, but time may well prove their close relationship - I would like to think so, for the sake of my small indirect interest via my holding in KFL.

hairdresser
21-05-2007, 01:37 PM
I think you missed the point, P/E is not good for valuing high growth stocks.

With RAK the high P/E may make the SP appear overvaled, but when you consider the explosive growth of RAK's markets it may not be as over valued as it appears.

There are not many growth stocks in NZ with solid markets and customers and high growth for a top 30 company in NZ is quite unique.

Its a bit of a moot point anyway as there is little in the way of coverage of RAK and what I have seen reported has just been a recycling of what the company has said anyway.

The ref to MSFT [and others] was for illustrative purposes only. You would hardly categorise MSFT as a high growth stock ie forecast 5 year EG of c30% is good but not really explosive. NB trailing PE of 22 forward PE of 18.

lakeside
21-05-2007, 02:19 PM
From KFL Newsletter re a overseas trip:

Warren gives us an update about Rakon, following his visit to the London headquarters of recently acquired subsidiary C-Mac.
In February, Rakon acquired a UK-based, crystal-quartz oscillator (CXO) manufacturer called C-Mac. Before this sounds so complicated as to make you stop reading - a reminder that a crystal-quartz oscillator is a shaving of quartz crystal that vibrates at a particular frequency when an electric current is applied to it. This frequency is picked up and used to tune into a radio signal. C-Macs technology is complementary to Rakon’s, with C-Macs CXOs used primarily in the telecommunications industry versus Rakon’s which are sold primarily to the consumer global positioning system (GPS) industry. Following this acquisition, Rakon has substantial intellectual property, manufacturing capability and relationships in the crystal oscillator market supplying the high growth cellular, WiMax and GPS infrastructure and device markets.

As with Rakon, C-Macs competitive advantage comes from miniaturization (of its frequency components) while achieving maximum specification and functionality. Miniaturization is of critical importance because it reduces power consumption, circuitry requirements and price. With this acquisition, Rakon has positioned itself well to capitalize on an exciting telecommunication market development in the coming years.

A key driver for C-Macs future growth is “triple play”. Triple-play is the term used to describe the technology for a single cellular base-station in the office or, even more exciting, the home, enabling wireless providers and others perhaps to provide additional services. Triple-play is being driven by network providers under pressure worldwide to both increase bandwidth to the consumer and from competing platforms/providers. Network providers are very keen for this technology to roll-out (as it has started to) as it will lock-in the subscriber for a bundled service. Rakon/C-Macs tiny CXOs are critical for the synchronization requirements of the base stations and indeed the only product which can meet the stability specification and the price required. Mass penetration akin to cell phone take-up “cannot happen without the lower cost CXO solution”. To finish with a tantalising quote from C-Macs Operations Manager, Phil Davies: “…if triple play takes off, this could be monstrous”.

hairdresser
21-05-2007, 03:57 PM
Thanks for the info

Cheers

Toulouse - Luzern
21-05-2007, 07:40 PM
Hi Hairdresser - agree with your comments on PEG.
SP +8 today ...

Footsie
21-05-2007, 08:05 PM
p/e is relevant
the moment you say its not....thats when u get into trouble

however, it's the fwd p/e you need to worry about.
im focusing on FY09 earnings........

my f/cast is 0.30 cps....
for FY09
the price could afford to get to 6.50 before id think its overpriced

COLIN
21-05-2007, 10:49 PM
quote:Originally posted by hairdresser

I think you missed the point, P/E is not good for valuing high growth stocks.

With RAK the high P/E may make the SP appear overvaled, but when you consider the explosive growth of RAK's markets it may not be as over valued as it appears.

There are not many growth stocks in NZ with solid markets and customers and high growth for a top 30 company in NZ is quite unique.

Its a bit of a moot point anyway as there is little in the way of coverage of RAK and what I have seen reported has just been a recycling of what the company has said anyway.

The ref to MSFT [and others] was for illustrative purposes only. You would hardly categorise MSFT as a high growth stock ie forecast 5 year EG of c30% is good but not really explosive. NB trailing PE of 22 forward PE of 18.


My apologies if I appear to you to have missed your point, Hairdresser, but my posting was probably a hasty reaction to your own rather hasty and seemingly superior conclusion that "no-one seemed to have heard of the use of Price/Earnings Growth (PEG) ratios". And I thought that you were trying to make the point that the PEG ratios indicated that RAK was still undervalued in comparison with giant, established enterprises such as Microsoft.



But let's move on. I think most would agree that RAK seems to have an exciting future, but estimating forward earnings beyond say 12 months for "blue sky" enterprises such as this, with any degree of precision, seems a pretty futile exercise. RAK has come a long way in a relatively short time, but it is still a minnow on the world scene.

Phaedrus
22-05-2007, 08:36 AM
Forbarr recommend that RAK investors reduce their holding. Here are 10 reasons why such advice should be studiously ignored :-
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/RAK522002.gif
Rakon is in a steady uptrend - an uptrend that shows no hint, no sign whatsoever of any weakening. All of the indicators plotted here are very positive and all lie well clear of current price action. Make no mistake though - this uptrend will end. They all do. Holders should have some sort of exit strategy in place. Without a written selling plan you are blindly holding and hoping, vulnerable to any reversal and the misguided advice of others.
You are on a rocketship but this does not mean that you are going to the moon. You're not. Uptrends can last for years, but they ALL end.

craic
22-05-2007, 09:30 AM
Dead right, Phaedrus! Just ask Coca Cola. And its up another 8cps as I write. While your're at it, how about a few words of wisdom for the WDT cultists? - they need it.

KT_NZ
22-05-2007, 11:32 AM
Big spike on Rakon today - there are only 5 sellers at this moment..

Placebo
23-05-2007, 07:56 AM
Thanks you Phaedrus. I have learned to take ForBarr's recommendations with a hearty dosing of salt :D

craic
23-05-2007, 10:12 AM
And another big jump today!

Toulouse - Luzern
23-05-2007, 10:00 PM
:) Yes it looked good at midday.
It only finished at 552 up 3 and in the intraday chart and depth it dropped off from mostly 560 ish through the day to 275 shares at 552 at 1656.

tobo
24-05-2007, 06:50 PM
Another deep breath and it's off again. Today 556 start, trickling climb, then one $80k trade at 566 at 4:30pm.
At 5:30pm $22k at 562.2
Volumes quite little since huge monday...so does this mean climb will ease off?

craic
25-05-2007, 09:34 AM
And again early morning at 579 on small volume but the interesting part is that there are buyers at 580 but no sellers below 585. In answer to tobo, I would suggest that this indicates that the climb will continue.I would dearly love to know where to set my exit price but for noe I am content to leave my head firmly buried in the sand even if it does mean that I may get my ar*e sunburned.

KJ
07-06-2007, 10:50 AM
Things starting to look more realistic-will look to re-enter at around $5.00

hairdresser
07-06-2007, 11:08 AM
Sell off on high dollar. each c it goes up reduces EBITDA by $1.5m. Now 5c above forecast rate and likely to stay up for a little while.

IMO the only thing that will help the NZD go down will be strength in the USD. There has been a little shorting in the NZD following this mornings RBNZ annoucment.

Phaedrus
07-06-2007, 11:34 AM
Craic, You say "I would dearly love to know where to set my exit price" Why? Why even attempt to set an exit price when nobody knows how far RAK will run? Say you bought at $3 and set your exit price at $4. Even though you would have "locked in" a good profit, what a mug you would have been! Lets your winners run. It's your losers that need a set exit price! It's called a Stoploss and is to limit your losses when you get it wrong. You wish you knew where to set a "StopGain"! You want to place a limit on your gains when you get it right? Don't do it. Don't even think about it.

"For now I am content to leave my head firmly buried in the sand" Why? Why would you want to ignore market reality? It's nothing to be afraid of. RAK is in a lovely linear uptrend. Nothing scary about that! Wouldn't you like to know if/when this uptrend ends, though? What is the point of purposely, willfully, remaining ignorant?

"..... even if it does mean that I may get my ar*e sunburned." Why? Why run this risk at all? Why not ensure that your derriere remains cool by monitoring the uptrend and selling when it ends? Why not use some of the 10 indicators that I kindly plotted here on 22/5/07? The use of any one of these would protect your nethers in the event of a reversal, locking in profits before you gave too much back to the market. You could even use them all if you wanted to, selling one tenth of your holding if/when each one triggers.

Craic, do us both a favour. Go back and re-read that 22/5 post. Nothing has changed.

a bowden
06-07-2007, 10:00 AM
?

whatsup
06-07-2007, 11:47 AM
Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?

Hoop
06-07-2007, 01:16 PM
Wow off nearly $1.00 from its highs is it all dollar related?

No

Investors got carried away with it's impressive performance to date.
It's currently overpriced and is falling back to a more realistic level.

Rakon's growth rate is averaging 80% at present so I would not expect the shareprice to stay down for very long before it heads north once again.



Disc: hold RAK and accumulating

whatsup
06-07-2007, 03:09 PM
Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)

Hoop
06-07-2007, 08:33 PM
Hoop, Whats the target price (on the down side?)

Target price $ 4.50 - $4.91 give or take a few cents.

Bear with me Whatsup that I am a long term investor which dabbles in short term investment to relieve the boredom so my technical expertise is very basic and I do most of my calculations in my head.
I will give you the formula of how I worked it out and perhaps you can refine on it, or perhaps a more sophisticated FA or TA person can enlighten us both.

[u]Using basic FA</u>

TP = forecast eps X expected P/E

EPS in 2006 5.5cps 31/3/07 9.7cps The latest annual report the forecast 80% increase in profit with little increase in share numbers(ignored) 2008 E 17.5cps
I divided (17.5 - 9.7 = Approx 8) / 4 = 2cps which are quarterly figures.

I can now figure out end June 2007 EPS 9.7 + 2 = E11.7cps

The expected P/E is a problem as Rakon is a new breed of animal it has only 2 figures to work out an average or a median or some other average in an trending pattern, so the P/E could be less accurate than we wish it to be. Do not be put off by the high P/E as this is common in fast growing stocks.
Working out P/E at IPO launch...price $2.30 / 5.5cps = 41.8
As at 31/3/07...................price $4.90 / 9.7cps = 50.5

I will use the conservative P/E of 42

Target price as of 30 June 2007 is 11.7cps x P/E 42 = [u]$4.91**</u>

**Forecast 80% increase in profit is based on calculations using NZ$ = US70c (Annual Report). I have no idea what the effect of NZ$1=US78c but I will assume 80% is now 50% increase because it is easy for me to work out. Instead of 2cps a quarter it is now 1cps a quarter

Target price 30/6/07 9.7 + 1 = 10.7 x 42 = $4.50 ($NZ1 = US78c)

This price is good enough for me I bought more RAK today at $4.72:D:D

As you see the approx targets at the end of September is between $4.90 - $5.71. So I expect the drop in share price will be short lived even with the NZ/US @ 78c. Assuming all the other variables remain the same, in 6 months time the SP should theoretically be approx 10-15% higher than now. If not it will become an undervalued stock.

Hope this helps
Hoop

artemis
07-07-2007, 06:02 AM
Which brokerage firm kept all its Rakon allocation for itself?

Christopher Niesche in today's Herald says:

If you were lucky enough to get Rakon shares in the initial public offering, you would have done very well indeed - the $1.60 shares issued by the GPS chip company are now trading above $5.

But if you were unlucky enough to be a client of one particular brokerage you wouldn't have got any Rakon shares at all. This brokerage was given an allocation of Rakon shares to apportion out to clients but decided - in breach of NZX rules - to keep all the shares for itself.

So the capital gain of more than 200 per cent on Rakon shares went to the brokers and the poor unsuspecting clients got nothing.

The brokerage argues that it was given such a small parcel of Rakon shares that it wasn't worth breaking it up and handing out.

But it should have been up to individual clients to decide whether a small parcel of Rakon shares wasn't worth bothering with. What small investor would complain about, say, a $2000 capital gain on an initial $1000 investment?

Full story - which is worth a read - is here:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10450186

Phaedrus
07-07-2007, 07:51 AM
If everyone that got an allocation from their broker posted the brokers name here, we could probably work out who the culprit was.

Flying Goat
07-07-2007, 09:36 AM
I think that Phaedrus makes an excellent suggestion, that way we could use the forum to uncover the mystery, yet nobody would be in trouble because there would be no mention of the culprit. However this will only work on the assumption that: ALL OF THE NZX REGISTERED BROKERS WERE ALLOCATED SHARES AT IPO. Can anyone confirm or deny that this is the case, that might be the best starting point.

FG