EUR.USD

[slam]

Morning Pete and Arco
Wow, well spotted arco, you must have a magnifying glass or just a very keen eye eh, didn't spot the H & S until you pointed it out.
See if it completes.

Someone keen on Kiwi on open;)

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

but wouldnt head and shoulders be bearish ?(well. once the right shoulder was broken on the downside anyway)
or is there some way thata H&S would support a bullish view?

I was seeing more of a wedge shape forming ....

[Xerof]

Peat, Arco's talking about an inverse H&S formation, but you have highlighted a potential bearish H&S pattern, which has developed over last 18 hours, which may develop further if there's a failure at circa 12310

heads or tails - your call:D:D

Xerof

ps, but if it does fail there, it won't fall far - only back to retest lows before up IMO. I think Arco's inverse H&S has better potential as the very recent pattern can hardly be called a topping formation

[peat]

thx xerof
so two sets of opposing heads and shoulders are gonna have a bit of a battle heheh

i know which type of head i prefer[:0]

[Xerof]

tsk tsk Peat, this is a forex forum;);)[:I][:I]

but I sympathise with your desire for a climactic end to all this short term vibration:D:D

Xerof

[arco]

Yes, thats an inverse H&S that could be forming.
Of course it could also be a Bear Flag.
Take your pick [B)]

Whichever, if you are game you can enter long now and
hopefully take a ride up to the neckline/upper flag line.
Then take the ST profit and wait to see if the line fails
or breaks.

Thats one low risk strategy that could be used with
a tight stop.

arco








arco

[peat]

our friends tune changes quite dramatically today
"recovery unconvincing"

[arco]

Morning Peat

Sounds like the info cannot be used
with any confidence, or for actaul trading.

My opinion of signal providers is that
if they are that good what are they
doing selling signals.

arco

[arco]

A very sudden and unexpected move south....whats
happened in Europe?

[arco]

Stops hit.
What did I say about Bear Flag [B)] [V]

See if Gann at 2207 will support

[slam]

Well that just ruined my day[B)]
Hope no one got burnt too much

Miner may have made the best call a few days ago

"Touch 219ish first maybe?."

[peat]

yes I went home at lunch and reduced long exposure at 1.2270 but still :(



account wont last too much longer of this....
perhaps forex isnt for me , even with Max's assistance

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by arco


A very sudden and unexpected move south....whats
happened in Europe?



EUR/JPY Japan Trust Bank Sales Seen Catalyst For EUR/USD Break

IFR newswire

[miner]

Peat did you ever try doing your own thing?(talked about it a while ago) as if you want a job done properly do it yourself etc,no one is going to make money for you.

Please don't take the above the wrong way as last thing am trying to do is rub your loss in.

Tea leafs have said south for days,but then I only read ST now and then so clear mind etc,hope it turns north for you.

First thought usd/chf test 748ish and as this goes opp way test around 150ish?,or I just made the worst call in FX history[:0][B)];).

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi Peat

Yes, its not an easy business.

If this is any help -

FX trading is not at all like share trading. The
same techniques do not necessarily work.

So, one of the 'must do' rules IMO is this....

Always take some profits off the table when they are there.

Be happy with any profit, - there is always tommorrow
to take another trade, and you can always jump back on
a trend.

Every one has discovered its possible to go to bed with a very
large profit on paper only to wake up in the morning
to find the account decimated.

Therefore. If you have scored 50-100 pips....sell at least half
of your position and then put a 50 pips trailing stop
on the balance. A profit is a profit. You will not go broke
with this policy.

arco

[peat]

thanks guys , and certainly I take nothing the wrong way miner....
i was trying my own thing for a while but that wasnt working either so hence the subscription thing with TCL

arco truth be told there have not been any 50 pip positives for a while now.... so havent really had that luxury... last night was getting close for a while... but confidence that it had turned kept me in.

oh well its only money....
I dedicated this account to giving it a good shot and I have a few more trades left before I blow.

Was reading aboout the GANN charts and Three Point Break charts last nite ..... arco do use those ?

[arco]

Peat

Three Point Break charts are I think similar to Renko,
Kagi, P@F. I'm not sure if they work well on FX. It
would be slow going.

The most simple things that work well on FX are

Candlestick Patterns - see Nisons first book, or
check out on the web - heaps of info.
You will be able make money using just the main
few patterns.


Patterns like Gartley/Butterfly (see books by Pesavento)
are good but you really need to know Fibonacci, EW, etc
to use them well. A little Gann can also help but
its very complicated.

Suggest you try the Candles first, and shoot for say
20 pips initially. Then increase this gradually as
your confidence grows. Experiment on a demo account.
Use EOD if possible, but you can watch 4 hour charts
for spotting patterns and gaining knowledge.

Let me know if I can help you further.

arco

[peat]

yeh i have read about candlesticks of course
i mean I have done a lot of work on this over the year I been at it now..... but hmmm maybe not the right mental attitude
but yeh going back to demo is a good suggestion

tho I know what will happen - I will get rich with play money hahah

[arco]

Peat

The Gann 2207 level remains possible support for the
short term with resistance above at Gann 2695.

Todays candle at the moment could be forming a
Hammer/Harami on the up-trend line which if
followed by a long green candle tomorrow may
create a Morning Star Pattern (Bullish)

In this case you could get out unscathed, but
you may want to consider bailing out if that
Gann support fails decisively.

I also have Gartley projections that target the high
area, although these signals are not by any means
guarantees of a north bound passage.

arco

[peat]

thanks arco
I think I will put a stops in at graduated levels starting below 1.2190

<my policy of variable entry/exits is an attempt to mitigate my poor timing in general>

Its hard for me to believe that a reversal wont take place soon... so many down days consecutively isnt that common

[miner]

Youch some big moves this morning,didn't make "the worst call in FX history" though;).

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Having a go at the north side of my dodgy trendline from previous 3 hours eur/jpy and usd/chf same for there lines,close this hour on north side may keep going,or just be a boring spiny top daily day;).

[arco]

As mentioned yesterday on the Chit-Chat thread
I took 22 pips on a EUR short.

Re-entered short again at 2160 and
2141(auto pilot as I slumbered in the land
of nod).

Currently + 44 and +25

Although I have a Butterfly target lower
down there is a divergence showing on the
Oscillator so thats something to be wary of.

arco

[Xerof]

Arco, could you assist.

I have plotted what I spotted as a Bearish Butterfly off the daily chart, with:

X = 1.2488 on 12/8
A = 1.2126 on 19/8
B = 1.2347 on 29/8, perfect at 61.8 ret
C = 1.2172 on 30/8, went a bit lower than ideal 50% but hey...
D = 1.2586 on 2/9, XD = close to ideal 1.272 of XA

my understanding is the sell from D has a 61.8% ideal target - we are now of course around 100%, but who would be complaining...

I can't see any new butterfly forming (maybe you could enlighten me if there is) so I'm assuming you're saying your butterfly target is still a function of the last structure, with a fib ext target???

BTW, if it holds around here, might begin to form RHS of a large H&S on the daily too

Xerof (Trainee White Cabbage)

[arco]

Morning Xerof

Nice to hear your thoughts.

Yes you have spotted it perfectly. 10/10
I think I can now promote you to Monarch of the Bay.:D

C can be 382-786 if a Butterfly.

The way I formulate the final Butterfly
targets is this.

First target area Fib 50-786 of DC/DA
If broken, 2nd target area 1272-1618 of DA

ADC could be an Expanded Flat perhaps in this case?
If so, Wave C can reach 1618XA in an expanded
flat (circa 1906) which ties in nicely with the
support area from 5/7 with Gann dug in @ 1963

As you see, Fibonacci, EW, Gartleys and Gann
are quite closely related.

Currently there may be a Bear Pennant/Flag forming
on the 15m

arco

[Xerof]

Thanks for that Arco, will draw lines and notes over my charts for next time. Its all very well spotting them after the event, of course one has to have the net ready in advance.


Mrs X is darning the holes in my net right at this minute[8D][8D]

Xerof

[Xerof]

Bullish pennant forming on the 60 min chart, as it vibrates around 12200 at the moment, on a very nice flagpole. Lets see if this one works vs this mornings failed bearish pennant [B)][B)]

I sold 12171 s/t trendline with a tight stop....stopped [xx(][xx(]

Xerof

Mondays gap filled BTW

[arco]

Typical...took the afternoon off and came back to
find my stops taken out. [V] I will review the EOD
tomorrow to see what went wrong.

Xerof

quote:Mrs X is darning the holes in my nets right at this minute

I presume those are the fishnet tights I saw you wearing New years eve. :D

[Xerof]

OOhh you naughty man - its all in the best possible taste

http://www.bbc.co.uk/comedy/guide/images/400/kennyeverett_2.jpg

lots of love, Miss Cupid Stunt:D:D

[slam]

Was looking to re-enter short circa 2100 but not sure if it will get there. Seems to be stalling at 2070/80

Cheers
slam

[slam]

Not far from July low around 1861
Should offer up some good support/resistance
Will take a long if bounce off this

Arco, also looks like reversal point of one of the butterflys to my untrained eye

Cheers
slam

[arco]

Hi Slam

Yes the action is fluttering within the Butterfly Potential Target Zone, so a reversal could be imminent. Oscillator is also in divergence.

arco

[arco]

Here's the chart, (still needs the overnight candle to be added).

Giving a circa 680 pip run.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/10042005_112.gif

arco

[slam]

Tightened stops to 1.2105
imo some retrace here as it has run hard for 2 days and is sitting on 38.2 fib
Next Target .227ish
Arco, any Gann info about;)

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Morning Slam

Major Gann 2207 if it holds......so just trying a wee short @ 2181 (no guarantee it will work [B)])

arco

[slam]

Cheers arco
Thought it was butting it's head against something
your short short may pay off:)

Slam

[arco]

Short target hit around 2 am +80.

Totally flat now.

Have a good weekend all.

arco

[slam]

Looking to re-establish long after being stopped out on Friday.
Reversal from correction (2) not finished yet though imo
c still to come

Then again I could be talking horse sh**t[:I]
See what today brings first

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Hi All

Looks possible EUR will fall further as mentioned previously towards the 1.1719 region (blue line)and at some point reverse back up towards initially 1.2329, perhaps stopping for a breather around 1.2207. The action appears to be setting up a possible Wolfe Wave pattern.

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_arcogridww_151.gif

[peat]

i've sold a little bit of Eur at 1.1987 ....

[arco]

Thats a very wise move Peat.....

I am also short @ 1985.......target Gann 1719.

FX - fingers crossed.

arco

[Xerof]

Peat,

you see now how Max was thinking? He said yesterday to sell the rally up to 12015. His prevailing medium term view is down, and I think he was waiting for that rally which appears to be wave 4

I'll be joining you guys with a short, as even my lousy EW skills can pinpoint the waves on this one (on short term charts up to 120 mins). Just waiting for confirmation of wave 4 ending

Xerof

[peat]

what i saw yesterday was a qualification that was confusing

eg "Whilst 1.1955/70 caps,Downside Break imminent.Otherwise 1.2015 then Down"

.... isnt this in effect hedging your bets

maybe in hindsight its correct but then , I wasnt sure how to play it.
Now its risen up as he said I am prepared to give it a go.

When this short hits 1.12 I will use it to continue my subscription lol

[peat]

quote: Just waiting for confirmation of wave 4 ending

Xerof

what will confirm for you Xerof?

[Xerof]

I usually wait for a couple of bars on the hourly (or should that be a couple of hours at the bar), to identify a minor high or low.

Once you have a new high, go back a candle to see if it had lower high and lower low, then wait for a bar that has a lower high and lower low compared to the potential 'minor high' bar. (ignore 'inside' bars)

In this case the 8.00 bar is the minor high, by a pip, and was confirmed by the 9.00 bar. I waited for the 10.00 bar as a confirmation.

By this time, I was in the garden bar adn I swa gtteing prttey pssied.....but managed to find the sell button at 83.

There's a much better illustration of a minor low set-up, on yesterday evenings turn off the 11875 lows. Nice and clear, well defined minor low.


Xerof

Sorry, I was 1 bar out, the sequence is 9.00 bar, preceded by 8.00 bar, confirmed by 10.00 bar, and clearly by 11.00 bar. I gave it the benefit of the doubt regarding highs, as there was only a pip in it.

[Xerof]

Peat, there's a perfect example of a minor high on the GBP hourly chart.

[peat]

thanks for that Xerof
I actually closed my short out +10 and will now watch for higher entry point which its starting to look like might happen

(half an hour later) or not.

(12 hours later@8:45AM ) shorted at 1.2015 with 33 pip stop and 50 pip take.
(4 hours later still) Stopped ! Nasty.

[slam]

Hi All
Went long this morning at 2020
Target 2100
See how this one goes

Cheers
Slam

[Xerof]

Have a small offer at 12080 - so far, close but no cigar

[slam]

Closed at 62 for 42pips
Doggy long but I'll take it.
Will get back in once to turns again

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Back in for another run at 2100;)

Slam

[peat]

thankfully i got me another short at 1.2037 and slept on it.... +83

[Xerof]

Tandem butterflies in play?

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/1561/eurusd0xw.png


Peat, I'm not going to get into a debate about service providers, but yesterday it was indicated that it was a wait and see day, as it hadn't got on with the job of retesting lows. I read it as that anyway, and acted accordingly on cable, when the retested support clearly held. Pity was, I didn't follow the 'sharetrader A(rco) team' advice, and turn long, I simply squared up.

Easy in hindsight, but I think you need to be willing to take some money off the table when its there for the taking, and at the very minimum, have a stop loss in place to protect some profits, or at worst breakeven.

I'm thinking Arco is tongue in cheek when he says to use it as a reverse indicator - Max is more often right than wrong, in my experience. (but no mistake, he can be wrong)

Anyway, seems it may not be right for you, so maybe stick with the ideas put up on this forum

BTW, yesterday in GBP: Arco 1, Martin 0[}:)][}:)]

Xerof

[Xerof]

Small long at 12094, s/l 12044

Xerof

[peat]

quote:Peat, I'm not going to get into a debate about service providers, but yesterday it was indicated that it was a wait and see day, as it hadn't got on with the job of retesting lows.
Anyway, seems it may not be right for you, so maybe stick with the ideas put up on this forum

Yeh Martin was capping Eur at 1.2047 as well which kind of influenced me to hold my shorts as this was a do-able level in terms of equity. But the 1.21 thing has put me on the knife edge.
Yes I do agree that I should have taken some profits when they were there. Thats the very reason I took the second short, so that I had something to work with without being out of the game.

[peat]

does the fact we have no pullback after the climb indicate its more likely to continue the climb?

[Xerof]

Think Asia don't know what to do with it Peat.

But a glimmer of hope - have a look at the 2 hourly, and spot the inverse H&S thats developed over last few days. Usually there is a return to the neckline before it takes off, so perhaps we see 12025/50 area again. No promises though...

Xerof

[Xerof]

Closed long EUR at 33 - into the batters box on smaller butterfly

Xerof

[blackcap]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Closed long EUR at 33 - into the batters box on smaller butterfly

Xerof


well done, thats nearly picking the top if the last 2 hours action are anything to go by. :)

[Xerof]

Peat, hope you managed to get through the bullsh*t s/l run in early europe. Low was 12051 on my platform, sorry - a pip out;)

Xerof

[arco]

EUR may be setting up a similar WW sequence

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102705ww_125.gif

GTA - arco

[Xerof]

Might yet even stretch into the red box of the larger butterfly posted yesterday

Xerof

[arco]

EUR managed a high of 2173 (Kissing the 5 ? point around 1 am)

If you rode the action north to the target zone 5? (see previous chart) you should/could have gotten upto 100 pips (max) on a day trade.

.........and if you reversed south there has been a max of circa 50 so far. I will try to update the chart later.

arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Peat, hope you managed to get through the bullsh*t s/l run in early europe. Low was 12051 on my platform, sorry - a pip out;)

Xerof

nah, that first spike up 2125 was too much so bailed. went long haha then had to bail again. the forex mind games gettin a bit much for me now. every time i change position it moves agin me.

i guess I'm the fodder for the sharks......

[Xerof]

Afternoon all, such a glorious day in the Bay today, I just had to go beyond the gates and have a coffee in the village.

Peat, :(:( we all go phases such as you're currently experiencing. Maybe spend time (not your money) on the demo to work out some systems that suit you and work for you.

Note also Peat, TRL's commentary today is a wait and see scenario
i.e might see final spike, but drop below 121xx should confirm top is in place

Arco, you mentioned a possible head on GBP - could be same setup for Euro too

Had a 'flyer' above at 12190 in case there was one more decent run into my more ambitious 'red zone', but you were obviously keeping a lid on it:D:D

Xerof

[Xerof]

Speaking of head and shoulders -I followed up on my comment to Peat a couple of days ago about an inverse H&S on the 120 min chart I'd spotted and which was due for a return to the neckline. In the event, other than the brief spike up to take Peat's stop out[V], this panned out perfectly. The concern is - it is a classic set-up which has developed further and now targets 1.2270, if the structure plays out according to Hoyle.....

Just another alternative for the pot......

http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/5696/eurhs9gr.png

Xerof

[arco]

Hi Xerof

The way I measure H & S is this....

Form a measurement line from the 'Head' and at 90 degrees to the neckline. Place that measurement at the point where the action exits the neckline and at the same angle. (If you use a Fibo grid you dont have to worry about the angle).

arco

PS. Thats roughly gives about 2247....with Major Gann at 2207.

[Xerof]

Noted thanks Arco, I shall rein in my exhuberance for the target.

That ol' 2207 major Gann again!! thats featured a number of times on this thread in the past.

On that basis I'll leave the 'flyer' in at 122 ish.

That all fits in nicely then with TRL's reversal point, my larger butterfly reversal zone, the inverse head n shoulders zone, and the major and his men.

With so much lining up, that probably means its already turned turtle and is ready to scarper...[^][^]

Xerof

[Xerof]

ps, I assume these refinements to JJ Murphy's iconic masterpiece are to be found in the soon to be released 'hitchhikers guide to the FX markets'

pps, n don't reply '42' :D:D

BTW, TRL's just lowered his sights - sell at market.....with tight stop....

[arco]

Xerof

Here are the Gann calcs in Glorious Red and White.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102805gl_518.gif

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by Xerof


BTW, TRL's just lowered his sights - sell at market.....with tight stop....


the 2200 target discarded unceremoniously.

Danes retained their short stance, having a stop at 23.

"Me? I'm just a lawnmower , you can tell me by the way I walk"

apologies for the random Genesis quote

[arco]

Nice move with upto 125 pips available from previous ideas.
Gann calcs proving their worth.........

arco

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102905gl_103.gif

[peat]

had a limit sell in at 1.1796 overnight which just got hit before plummeting, currently +60. Looking at the candles I really wouldnt have expected it to be taken. The daily high is that exact number. Not often things go that way. :D

[peat]

out for the weekend at 1715 from 1806 +91
tho lost 60 pips really quickly in that upspike on the 23rd dammmmm
it aint easy.

[peat]

Lone Olesen : Jyske Bank

Snow is starting to fall, as winter closes in on us. The same
more or less goes for the currency market. Market participants
are beginning to mentally "slow down" (more than usual), and
sayings that "volatility is going to fall further, as markets are
going to slow down, as December advances!"are doing the
rounds. I strongly warn against listening to this. Instead I
foresee another generally unexpected jump higher in the USD.
Right now many are awaiting rate increases in Euroland, and a
coming slow down of the Amerian rate hike cycle. You be
aware though that these expectation are already priced into the
market now. They are in other words "Schnee von Gestern".
Should our friend Mr. Trichet - who is under severe political
pressure not to hike - "stumble" at this week's policy meeting
in Frankfurt, either by not delivering the expected rate increase,
or by playing down the effect of an actual rate increase, market
response could be very detri-mental to the EUR in general. The
dollar on the other hand has taken a hit as market is slowing
down its expectations as to the hawkishness of the FED in 2006,
and nevertheless the dollar has succeeded in gaining a footing
again. EUR/USD is right now starting to slide through 117 with
eyes set at a decisive test of 116.40 anew. This time around the
old bottom is going to break and open up for new lower levels,
which would be a major surprise to many market participants
who have been bottompicking the last week or so.

[arco]

Thanks Peat

Jyse bank quote .........EUR/USD is right now starting to slide through 117 with eyes set at a decisive test of 116.40 anew.

An excellent contra indicator from Jyse in the short term.:D

arco

[peat]

yeh it didnt pan out exactly huh

[peat]

the question is has direction changed overall tho. Max doesnt think so while 1900 contains...

[peat]

i've hedged my EUr short with a USD/CHF short for a while..... maybe until Eur = 1840ish.... or CHF = 3070ish

[arco]

Here's that billious chart again that I posted on Khalsapad forum one month ago.

...........it was a long and winding road but today we have arrived at that calculated Gann coordinate for circa 300 pips.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eurgann111405_973.gif

[Xerof]

Speaking of Gann targets, look at the number that pops up on my chart today - 1.2207. Also a 1.272% fib extension

Might be some minor skirmishes ahead of there though below 12100

http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/3488/eurusd6hb.png


quote:history, never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep....

G'nite y'all

Xerof


p.s. Arco, one of the minor problems I'm finding with DGL on Esignal is it's not terribly accurate, as the live feeds do not have spikes filtered out (compared to what you get on EOD data from rooters et al)

[arco]

Evening Xerof

I have 2048 0n the M/S EOD level

arco

[peat]

gone a little long for real.....
3 hour MACD is movin up now, and 2050 was bounced off.... pretty tight stop at 2107 possibly too tight but its a toe in the water

[peat]

:([B)]
where to now[?] this probably blows the 1.24 goal.... are we back to new lows...
y'day lady dane said the dollars would look cheap soon.

[arco]

Perhaps due for a turn north.............

http://upload2.postimage.org/stocks/tradingthecharts/161638/trading.html

http://tradingthecharts.com/upload/eur_216_16.jpg

arco

edit....added visual chart

[slam]

Hi All
Went long on yesterdays pullback
First target looking for 1.1130, fib retracment on daily

Cheers
Slam

[pringy]

1.2130 you mean :P

I'm just wondering if it will retrace before it heads up again... the retracement to 1.1992 after the ISM wasn't quite convincing...

Hey is there a way to predict which way the price will gap over the weekend?

[slam]

Hi Pringy
Yep, sorry 1.2130 [:I]


quote:Hey is there a way to predict which way the price will gap over the weekend?


Would be rich if I knew that;)

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

Updating chart from 17th Feb

Currently showing a max of 225 pips from the turnaround as expected at (v).

Looking for resistance to halt progress at the grey box area/downtrend line.

GTA arco

http://www.tradingthecharts.com/phpBB/BB_upload/030406_eur.usd.gif

[Xerof]

Arco,

Falling trendline worked a treat - hope you managed to get some out the door.

I was offering at 121 flat, missed by the flutter of a wing, and never really chased it down [|)][|)]

I'm wondering if the bottom of the channel shown on your chart might hold it this time around - methinks not....but interested in your opinion

regards

often absent Xerof

[arco]

Maybe...............

http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/1650/042606eurusd2pm.gif

Watching for a reversal signal - maybe it will come.

GTA - arco

[slam]

Hi Arco

I get the top of the uptrend line circa 1.2460 on the Daily, so would fit nicely
Cheers
Slam

[arco]

DeMark Candle Count = 9
which might mean something.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/eur_td.gif

arco

[peat]

I hadnt heard of DeMark so for all of our info

quote:DeMark advises against trading in extreme overbought or oversold conditions indicated by six or more bars above or below the 45 thresholds


yes it is looking pretty overbought now tho my MACD isnt actually showing divergence like yours is.

[peat]

and today looks like it will close with a bearish Harami (?? am i right or is the wick too high) and if so this has increased significance due to the RSI now being in the overbought zone (filtered candle theory)

Jack Crooks reckons 1.16 before 1.30!

[arco]

Morning Peat

Harami.
As long as the body is within the previous candle the pattern is valid. A long overhead wick would be additionally bearish IMO. It shows the bears pushed the bulls back from a higher point.

arco

[slam]

Hi All
Long Term, could this be forming a H&S on the weekly/Monthly charts?

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

i havent got access to my long term charts but I'm guessing you mean shoulders at around the 1.29 level with head at 1.36. So first we would have to reach 1.29 again and then we would have to break down through about 1.19 to have that confirmed.

Although I'm no longer a subscriber I got Max's latest forecast graph on the Eur today. First target 1.29 then a whopping 1.7 !!!!!
Still I seem to recall him predicting the Kiwi at .9 against the US too. (Could still happen I suppose)

[slam]

Hi Pete
Yep, that's the one, Long way off yet, but just a thought.
2.5 year pattern;) so may take 6 mths to play out.
I like looking at the big picture. I find it helps confirming the next and the next and so on.

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

agree the big picture is valuable, but my big picture on the Eur would be closer to Max's , that we are in long term bull market with move from 1.36 down to 1.16ish was a correction! 2000 pip correction LOL !!

[arco]

Just scalping a few pips while I'm relaxing, but this chart looks
interesting for longer term punters.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/060906_eur.usd_w.gif

Regards -

arco - gently baking in 23 degrees while sipping a cool beer, and watching the waves from the balcony [8D]

[Xerof]

Travelling well at this early stage Arco.....

regards

Xerof

[miner]

Ok hammer on the 5min,and shooting star on USD/CHF 5 min,they go opp so worth a watch,slow though.

Cheers
miner

[roddy]

Hi Miner, went short just after the annoucement on eurozone data as follows

Euro Zone May Current Account data has disappointed as the deficit widened to
EUR 8.2Bln, against the expectations for a slight narrowing to EUR 7.0Bln from
the previous -EUR8.0BBln report.
Elsewhere, the third German state to report its CPI for July (Hesse) showed
monthly inflation rising by 0.5% with the annual rate at 1.9%, up from 1.8%.
This compares to national consensus CPI of 0.4% & 1.9% and should keep the
national data inline with consensus forecasts.
Was stopped out earlier in the day on the eur/us
at present not a lot happening

[miner]

Hi Roddy,yep like watching paint dry,the hourly's(three before this one) won over those 5min candles,sideways and messy tonight so just watching,might be time to hit the hay soon.

Good trader this one though.

Cheers
miner

[miner]

Nice trade if you were up at 2am last night,same with USD/JPY and USD/CHF but opp way,grass growing since though.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Nice trade if you were up at 2am last night,same with USD/JPY and USD/CHF but opp way,grass growing since though.

Cheers
Miner

yeh i was up.... got some of those CHF pips ! will look for signs of a breakout on the upside again tonite

[roddy]

well done Peat for catching some of those CHF pips.
i was short the EURO, instead of taking profit yesterday morning i added to the position and last night added more as it headed southward, only trouble being each time i added to the position i was placing larger amonuts on the trade,so what could have been a tidy profit turned into a loss, as it never followed through and i was stopped out!

[peat]

I've been reading that reminisces of a stock operator book that arco linked to and he (Jesse Livermore) reckoned (and i agree) that when you're pyramiding your position you should have very tight stops indeed, and only pyramid as it goes with you, i.e risking existing profits - do not add to a losing position.

[roddy]

thanks for the feed back Peat, I will try to implement having tighter stops when pyramiding,it hadnt actually occured to me as i normally place a 30 pip stop as standard practice , as can be judged from my previous post i wont be giving up my day job just yet. i am keen to learn my biggest problem at the moment is lack of discipline and reacting to quickly

[miner]

Evening chaps,good stuff peat,hope you took the $ looking at it tonight,ouch,Roddy I use the take the money and run method in this game as to volatile and always another trade to be had.

Make your rules(stops etc) and stick to them,put a CD on empty your mind relax and trade hehe.

Cheers
miner

[pringy]

mmm does anyone do Elliott Wave analysis here?

The break through the diagonal support on 17 July has screwed things up... the subsequent low at 1.2457 on 20 July, makes you wonder if it is a Wave 2 or correction E, since it has retraced more than the low at 24 Jun 1.2478 (Wave C)...

Problem is trying to decide if 8 July to 20 July is an impulse or a corrective...

Time will tell... if it breaks through 1.2750 tonight, it's going to be a good run!!

[arco]

Hi Pringy

Heres a possible count on weekly/daily from EWM

"The count suggests that an upward impulse wave from the lows has been completed, the EUR/USD is in a bearish mode as long as it holds below the $1.30 level. The decline could be corrective, which depends on whether the longer term support at $1.10 holds; the internal structure of the downward move is also important. Key support for the medium term is the zone from $1.150 to $1.20."

http://www.elliottwavemarkettiming.com


arco

[peat]

quote:Originally posted by peat

i havent got access to my long term charts but I'm guessing you mean shoulders at around the 1.29 level with head at 1.36. So first we would have to reach 1.29 again and then we would have to break down through about 1.19 to have that confirmed.

bumpity bump....
1/ the first requirement has now happened.
2/ to remind us about arco's graph of the 9th of July, which I'm still keeping my eye on (and from a JPY perspective as well)

Trades taken out at that time longing $ would have been in AND out of the money during the last month but are now starting to come back in to +ve territory.

[arco]

Hi Peat/All

Blue plot on the chart of 6th June is still in play.

Short term it looks possible we may see a little rise up from Fridays close before EUR reverses and heads further south. (According to Major Gann anyway).

.........its hot on the SS coast today - 24 C. [8D]
(Weather in NZ looks a bit dodgy....so might hang on here a bit longer)

GTA - arco

[arco]

Check out yesterdays EOD Inverted Hammer (Bullish)- thats a candlestick that has a long upper shadow and a small real body at the lower end of the session. It's usually a bullish bottom reversal signal.

That sorta confirms that little rise I mentioned yesterday which could possibly take EUR back to the 2970 area.

GTA - arco in QLD

[arco]

Trust a few got long before the event............

In July, a 1.3-percent increase for finished energy goods prices
slightly outweighed declines of 0.3 percent for finished goods less foods and energy and for finished consumer foods.

+62

[arco]

Heading nicely to the target mentioned.

Currently consolidating circa 2842

+ 117

[slam]

Got on a bit late but still picking up a few pips
+54 atm

Nice call arco (as usual)

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

I placed a tight stop overnight @ 2851 which was hit for +126

Currently watching for a possible re-entry at a similar or better number.

GTA - arco in QLD [8D]

[arco]

Finale perhaps............

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/081806_ew_weekly.gif

[roddy]

Hi Arco
Great posting and trading,If 1.32 is reached which is the target of the 5th wave, strictly speaking does that invalidate the bearish butterfly pattern,or are the two charts just confirming each other?

slightly off topic,have you read any of Scott Carneys books Harmonic Trading regarding butterflys, bats etc

[arco]

Hi Roddy

Re your questions.

Q. If 1.32 is reached which is the target of the 5th wave, strictly speaking does that invalidate the bearish butterfly pattern.

A. No, it means there is the possibility the original Bearish Blue Butterfly could grow a slightly longer leg, taking the print to circa 3200 and it would still remain a valid pattern. (Also a point to remember is we have already had about 500+ pips from the original 'blue').

Q. Are the two charts just confirming each other?

A. The 2 taken together could be considered as hinting at the possibility of a further extention to the 'blue' leg.

Q. Slightly off topic,have you read any of Scott Carneys books Harmonic Trading regarding butterflys, bats etc

A. I am familiar with Scotts patterns, but I havent read any of his books.

Hope that answers youe queries

Regards - arco

[roddy]

Hi Arco,
waiting for an upward break if it goes that way!


http://img238.imageshack.us/img238/2358/noname6wj3.jpg

cheers cadet roddy

[peat]

direction is not what you think but indeed has gone now.!

[roddy]

hopefully waiting in the wings!

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/3202/noname02qh5.jpg

cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

I have a Gann turn date 19th so I'm trying a little long here

+ 30 presently.

.....see how we get on.

[roddy]

Thanks for that Arco

eod and hourlies tending upward from 2679 level


as always i realise i trade at my own risk!
cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

Possible base building at 2630?

Waiting now for the 19th before commiting additional funds and see if we get a good reversal signal at the Gann date.

regards - arco

[roddy]

HI Arco
been watching this one with interest, after your post,Arco the move up from 2630 to 2700 is that a significant enough reversal or would you prefer to see higher levels before entering?

also i am still long Aud, which needs to make a break above 7570 i believe.

cheers cadet roddy

[arco]

HI Roddy

Todays candle created a Piercing Pattern basing off a Tweezer Bottom which is technically bullish. However, a confirmed break of 2753 would obviously give more confidence to an possible bullish scenario/follow through.

Regards - arco

[arco]

Calculated Gann reversal date was 19th as mentioned a few days ago, so added a rather large position at 2677 overnight which is currently +43.

Have moved stop above b/e now, so a no lose situation whatever happens.

GTA - arco

[Dazza]

similar

i got in yesturday at 2678

got out today at 2715 around 3ish this aftanoon.

a good few pips, shoulda stayed in with the master

i got in cause of divergance on 5 minute chart with RSI.

though i mite get in again in time however

[arco]

Morning All

Major Gann triumphs again.............

TP 2777 hit overnight +100 pips.

I will review the situation later for possible re-entry.

regards - arco

[Dazza]

mmm ok something strange happened to my cmc markets thingie

my linked stop limit order i had placed was in fact 2 seperate orders..

i have no idea waht happened, but im up 80 pips... i guess its all good?

[peat]

good trading arco especially about taking the 'rather large' possie. :D

Dazza, yeh I screwed up too actually , using the same software. Left a (sell) stop order in, it and it got triggered at 116.96 USD/JPY when my actual strategy at that stage (tho not 'in' at that moment) was long USD. Discovered a -25 pip trade [:0] but of course being short wasnt a bad thing last night. so no damage done.
1 - Must be more careful
2 - s/w shld be smarter

[roddy]

Hi Arco
seriously Great trade on Euro!

on a lighter note
i am especially pleased in regard to the rather large possie, as it will free up your time for a bit, so now you will be able to concentrate on the long overdue book, however if that is too daunting, i will look forward to the first chapter of your E-book instead!

cheers cadet roddy

[Dazza]

2nd to that roddy

let us know it here u have a big following arco :D

[miner]

Take a look at the 15min chart on this and usd/chf,see the pattern,something to watch for,eur/jpy going south has helped also.

Cheers
Miner

[roddy]

Hi Peat

Doesnt this have a familliar look to it ,any thoughts

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/3839/noname04rv4.jpg

check out JPY as well
cheers roddy

[Dazza]

i shorted the eur last nite at 2726

the 15 min chart showed bearish divergence with the RSI

so far 60 pips pocketed.

[roddy]

Hi Dazza

well done,i havent quite pulled the trigger yet,price is just below trend line 2667 at present
roddy

[miner]

Good entry Dazza,Roddy usd/chf is well through yesterdays high,so if stays above eur/usd should follow(as in the opp way).

[roddy]

Hi Miner

i see what you mean, the euro follows the chf except Euro should head south.

is this a regular occurance?
cheers cadet roddy

[Dazza]

really?

im actually going to long the EUR

i manually took myself out of that trade.

ended gaining 59 pips.

i saw bullish divergance on 15 min RSI chart.

so that tempted me to exit my trade.

i wasnt home for the 2650ish mark where the bullish divergence occured.

closed my trade at 2667


im looking to long EUR... for a 30 pip trade maybe..

[roddy]

Hi Miner short at 2663,see what happens

cheers cadet roddy

[Dazza]

placed a buy at 2665

stop at 2650

limit at 2695 - about 62.8% fib retracement
from the 2710 drop

wish me luck, will see how this plays over nite

[Dazza]

lol roddy, i see , we see different things :D

[miner]

Evening Roddy yep eur/usd always goes the opp way to usd/chf and usd/chf leads the way,most of the time they mirror each other(opp way though) but sometimes like last few days eur/usd gets out of sequence(look at last couple of daily's not counting today) but then it gets it together and does what it should.

So working on the above if you look at usd/chf daily's(last 4 before today) they were telling you that eur usd was a short,or would go short.

Then to get tricky look at last 5 usd/jpy daily's,they go same way as usd/chf,and opp to eur/usd,so they were also saying what eur/usd would do.

So you can confirm or get the jump on moves(short eur/usd last night,not by what it was doing but by what usd/chf was doing) then there is eur/jpy hehe.

I often long or short one by what another is doing,so am actually looking at a different pair to the one I am trading,and obviously the one I am trading but you get the idea.

Hope that made some sense and helped.

Cheers
Miner

[Dazza]

mmm maybe my bullish divergence, was seen already?

bah :D

oh well got my stop anyways, so i can sleep well tonite

[miner]

Interesting boys might turn me screens back on for a bit see which one of you is right hehe,was off to bedybise.

Cheers
Miner

[roddy]

Dazza
good luck,

feels like bed time to me,youre right the morning will tell all
cheers cadet roddy

[miner]

Night Roddy ,was just going to say which way do you charty boys think usd/chf is going to go?,looking toppy to me so maybe south for a bit.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

RSI on Swissy is overbought right up to the 3 hourlys.

[Dazza]

short

major short

i c the divergance in that


mmm i mite even make a trade in that too :D

[Dazza]

do u guys use msn?
u can add me on dazdaz21@hotmail.com

easier to chat and gather ideas :D

im really thinking about shorting USDCHF aswell.....

i missed the divergence by about 10 pips...

however i already have EURUSD long so its kinda the same.. really..

[Dazza]

decided to leave the swiss trade

as much as i like it, its pretty much the same as if i was trading the eurusd

double the risk but double the reward.

opposite of pairs trading.

ill stick to just trading EURUSD by myself at the moment.

i missed arcos free 100 pip lunch on the kiwi at 6720, i thought it neva went past that mark u c or touched it, but when i used the candlesticks....

i could see it :D just touched it

[miner]

look at both the charts,and they are both looking good for opp ways,so they confirm each other.

[miner]

Might hit the hay boys,using the best run(safe money) gone theory,as in look at the hourlys for this and usd/chf,they have both had good runs earlier in the evening,now look at 15 and 5 min charts,messy sideways stuff,so best run gone for the day so look again tomorrow,so can the above post ,or stay up all night um nup.

Cheers
Miner

[Dazza]

fellas
the divergence is too strong.

so i canceled my stop limit orders.

placeda fresh stop at 2630 instead.

will see how it goes

[Dazza]

tanking at the moment ><
nooooo lol, closed my short trader earlier too long ekk oh wells

[miner]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Night Roddy ,was just going to say which way do you charty boys think usd/chf is going to go?,looking toppy to me so maybe south for a bit.

Cheers
Miner


Morning chaps hope no one got nailed last night,so last night when we were talking I wasn't sure which way eur/usd would go but I did say the above(at 2536,I wrote it down hehe) hence don't short eur/usd as if usd/chf was Topy and went south eur/usd would go long.

So see how one tells you what the other will do,often one is easier to read than the other,so say usd/chf moves first like last night and you miss the best bit but eur/usd is lagging behind and yet to go jump on eur/usd.

Not the best example last night but you get the idea of what I am doing with a bit of luck.

So tea leaf stuff but hope it helps.

Cheers
Miner

[Dazza]

i got out of the long at 2705
for 40 pip gain

so total 120 pip gain last week

scary man last couple of days, the volatility of EURUSD!!

i got out quickly prob this long, but 40 is good enough for me , was like 30 pip down at one stage!

ill look for a reentry

i want to try to get 100 pips a week if i can
and only play EURUSD

[arco]

Medium/Longer term perhaps.....

Symmetrical triangles can be characterized as areas of indecision. A market pauses and future direction is questioned. Typically, the forces of supply and demand at that moment are considered nearly equal. Attempts to push higher are quickly met by selling, while dips are seen as bargains. Each new lower top and higher bottom becomes more shallow than the last, taking on the shape of a sideways triangle. Eventually, this indecision is met with resolve and usually explodes out of this formation. Research has shown that symmetrical triangles overwhelmingly resolve themselves in the direction of the trend. With this in mind, symmetrical triangles should be perhaps traded as continuation patterns

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100406_eur.gif


GTA - arco

[peat]

I noted the following point from an online training session I took a while back

2. It is better not to trade breakouts from the last third of a triangle. If prices stagnate all the way into the apex, they are likely to remain flat. A triangle is like a fight between two boxers who keep leaning on each other. An early breakout shows that one of the fighters is stronger. If prices stay within a triangle all the way into the apex (where the two lines meet), that shows that both boxers are exhausted and no trend is likely to emerge.

even if the advice isnt correct its an interesting way of viewing it I thought

does it apply here ?
this triangle must be getting mature at least.

[roddy]

Hi ALL
Tonight might be an interesting night on the eur/usd

i am long at 2706 with a stop slightly below
support which is the july uptrend.

Miner
i did alright trading your system last night

EUR/USD USD/CHF, (':)')
:)

cheers roddy
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/7240/noname05eq7.jpg

[arco]

Hi Peat

Sym Triangles. Yes, that is a point often muted, although in reality they can occasionally go into the last 1/3 and still come up with the goodies......take this Yen trade for example......

http://www.actionforex.com/images/stories/contributors/NL13-triangle-jpy.jpg

Roddy - wish you good luck with that trade.

regards -arco

[miner]

Hi Roddy good stuff,glad someone could use it,also usd/jpy works well with those 2,as in same way as usd/chf opp to usd/eur,I run 4 screens so one for each of the pairs I watch,with 4 charts on each so makes it a bit easier,not sure how many screens you have?.

Been to busy this week to play but next week hope to,good luck.

If my tea leaf posts help will post more some time if you want?.

Cheers
miner

[peat]

fundamentals may work over a very long time frame but few trade like that with forex.

[roddy]

Hi Broke
good to hear from you, i like your flag!

I cant speak for others but for myself,forex is not like trading shares where i think you can survive reasonably by perhaps buying on the fundamentals of a stock and having a buy and hold strategy,over time do well?e.g Warren Buffett
One of Aussys top traders Richard Farleigh,who one day while trading made 15 ml for BT, uses his own fundamental models to trade,maintains that he has been unable to find a fundamental model to trade the likes of the Euro,says its hard enough to determine where ones own country is going let alone two countries and how the market will react. FX is highly leveraged,and moves dramatically when it feels like it,i have found that i have to be highly disciplined and stick to a plan.tonight the usd has some figures coming out on non farm payroll,The market is looking for 120-125k for Sept from
128k last.
i have a trade in place based on technicals,principally end of day chart data,basically i havent got any idea what the figures will come in at,if it goes the wrong way, i have a stop in place to limmit losses, if it goes my way i will endeavor to ride it as long as possible.i havent enough information to make a trade based on the fundamentals.Most of the NZ trading banks predicted the kiwi to be .6000-5900 to the USD by now, not 6600! Personally i find the fundamentals dont have that much relevance to my trading decisions!

i hope that answers your question
cheers cadet roddy

[roddy]

Hi Broke
Yes if data comes in above market expectation it will be positive for the USD.

Currencies are always traded in pairs so for instance EUR/USD, aud/usd, gbp/usd, nzd/usd
therefore if the US payroll comes in above expectation all of the above will most probably trend down,whereas USD/CHF, USD/JPY will most probably have a bias upward,simply because whichever currency is first,is how the market is valueing it against the second currency broadly speaking if that makes sense.

think its time i hit the hay,

cheers cadet
roddy

[arco]

The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to profit by either a rise or fall in the price of whatever he is speculating in. Therefore the thing to do is to determine the line of least resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should wait for is the right moment when the line defines itself, because that is his signal to get busy.

JL

[miner]

Date: 2006/10/23
Time: 19:43 (GMT +2)
Ticker: EUR
Last: 1.2544
Pivot: 1.2535
1st sup. 1.2535
2nd sup. 1.252
3rd sup. 1.251
1st res. 1.2577
2nd res. 1.259
3rd res. 1.2602
Title: EUR/USD intraday : Correction up
Summary: Update on supports and resistances.
Story: Pivot : 1.2535

Our preference : Maintain long positions above 1.2535 with targets @ 1.2577 & 1.259 in extension.

Alternative scenario : Below 1.2535 look for further downside with 1.252 & 1.251 as targets.

Comments : A correction up to resistance is expected

[miner]

Well that didn't work as was trying to post the chart as well.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi Miner

To post a chart or any image.

Right click on the image, then select 'properties'. A window will open. Highlight and copy the full 'URL address' from that window.
Paste that into your ST message, highlight only it, and click on the yellow image tab on the Format Bar above the message window. Heres an example.

URL address..........

http://news.bbc.co.uk/furniture/in_depth/business/2001/euro_cash/notes.jpg

converts to...............

http://news.bbc.co.uk/furniture/in_depth/business/2001/euro_cash/notes.jpg

regards - arco

[miner]

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/EUR_0610232137.GIF

[miner]

Ta for that arco,I got a call from the US last week saying there was this new resource for clients so just been having a wee look.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi Miner

Got the same call a while back.
Played out a few of the scenarios, and it worked quite well.

Back test them for a while

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Ta slam yep got a call a while ago also but was out and never rang back,anyway looks like it could be some ok info,thanks for your thoughts on it,hope all is going well.

Cheers
Miner

[Dazza]

i tried that,

i longed the euro at 37
i missed the top at 76 cause was sleeping

its 56 now
so im up about 20 pips

still holding

[miner]

Worth a watch for long on new daily,820 may be the low for today.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Morning miner

I'm long on this, but have been for 10 days now
+243:)
Still got a bit to go imo
Cheers Slam

[miner]

Good stuff slam,um are you the new zealand guy on the top of the mini list?,I should have gone long when I posted before but was still waking up,it will test yesterdays high at least.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Good stuff slam,um are you the new zealand guy on the top of the mini list?,


LOL I wish
No I'm the guy with the smallest mini account on record:D

[arco]

Well done Slam....thats the way to make the real money - hang on there for the big pips

Just a chart reminder from awhile back......we may still be on track

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100406_eur.gif

GTA - arco

[miner]

Bugger lucky I listened to my call[B)]:(;),the one day all week I don't watch and all my 4 are running well.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi All

Sitting just above my stop atm.
Long still in play, but break below 2780 will take me out.

See if it holds

Cheers
Slam

[slam]

Add to Long Position at 1.2808
Balls in hand[^]

Cheers
Slam

[peat]

if its any assistance in the ball carrying Max McKegg big upped the Euro the other day... pretty much same as Arco has done here already identifying the 6 mth compression phase and pointing the arrow of wave 5 from 1.2485 to 1.3580

[miner]

On the 15min hammer slam?,usd/chf leads the way on this pair so I watch that to trade eur/usd most of the time if any help,good luck,could be painful if your wrong:D.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Hi all
Still sitting above support, so see how we go.

Cheers
Slam

[miner]

Evening or should that be morning chaps,a good example of using usd/chf to trade eur/usd tonight,look at the hourlys,usd/chf broke above yesterdays high at 21.00 so you knew eur/usd would go south,it did at 22.00.

So even though eur/usd was hard to pick usd/chf gave you an hour or so to short the you know what out of it.

Hope that helps,it works well,was 40-50 pips in the eur/usd short,O and usd/jpy was going north to also confirm the eur/usd short.

Cheers
Miner

[slam]

Balls on floor[B)]

[arco]

There might just be a short term Butterfly in the wings from Nov 10th on the 3 hr chart, so watch for a possible retrace if we get a reversal signal in the appropriate zone.

arco

[clearasmud]

Currently 1.307
Breakout!

[slam]

Scalped a few pips long over night
Now looking for a reversal

Cheers
Slam

[arco]

The Euro express has reached its destination 3200 as indicated on this thread 4th Oct.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/100406_eur.gif

Even I'm amazed :D

regards - arco

[peat]

From ABN Amro

’It is not the world, it is what the world might be with a minor
adjustment or two’, introduction to Against the Day by
Thomas Pynchon

Something strange is happening. It seems there’s more chance of
spotting Thomas Pynchon, the famously reclusive American
novelist, in his local store than there is of ECB officials talking
about recent FX moves. It follows five years in which the ECB
talked constantly at first about why the euro should be a strong
currency and then why it shouldn’t rise too quickly. It might be the
ECB is pondering the appropriate response to recent moves in
exchange rates. Certainly, the French government believes
European policymakers shouldn’t sit and watch the euro
appreciate. Both Dominique de Villepin, the prime minister, and
Thierry Breton, the finance minister, have called for action to stop
the euro’s ascent.
Perhaps the ECB knows there is little it can do. Over the last few
days, the dollar has fallen against a wide range of currencies. The
currency market seems convinced the next move in US interest
rates will be down. Equally, there are still widespread expectations
that other central banks will continue to hike interest rates. The
outlook is a little opaque in the UK and Japan, with a debate about
the timing and scale of further rate hikes. But in the euro area, the
outlook is clearer. The ECB has signalled that it will hike its
refinancing rate to 3½% next week. And the ECB’s hawks have
continued to worry about ’upside risks to price stability’,
emphasizing that interest rates are still historically low, implying
rates will rise further in 2007.
We know the ECB isn’t indifferent to the euro’s movements. On
previous occasions, Jean-Claude Trichet has talked about ’brutal
moves’ in the euro, as a signal the ECB was becoming concerned.
I don’t think the latest moves fall into this category. In late 2004, the
ECB was particularly worried when the euro’s trade-weighted index
rose above 108. Currently, the TWI is around 105. It’s also worth
remembering the 2004 move was rapid and the euro gained
sharply against sterling and the yen. While the euro continues to
gain against the yen, this is a trend that has been in place for
several years. More significant, the euro hasn’t gained much
ground against sterling, which is a more important currency for
euro-area exporters. I don’t think the euro’s recent moves will alter
the ECB’s intention to hike rates in 2007.
What might force the ECB to rethink? I suspect it would require a
dramatic reassessment of the prospects for the economy.
Currently, the ECB’s view of the global outlook is similar to ours.
This is reinforcing their confidence on growth in the euro area. The
major risk would be further unexpected weakness in the US
economy, which would have two important implications: weaker US
growth would undermine global activity and it would also force the
dollar sharply lower. This could cause major problems in the euro
area, particularly if the dollar’s weakness affected other bilateral
exchange rates. For instance, it might force markets to sell sterling
because the UK economy has similar long-term structural problems
to the US. If Asian central banks intervene to prevent sharp
appreciations in their currencies, the euro could be the major
’beneficiary’. If the euro hurtles towards $1.40, £0.70 and a TWI of
108, the ECB might rethink. Till then, expect a Pynchonesque
silence on the euro.

[peat]

A lot of resistance just above 1.30 it seems. Its been rejected on Jan23rd/24th ; Feb 2nd ; and now Feb 8th. Triple tops are considered more meaningful than double tops.

[roddy]

Hi Peat

Did you go short the Euro last night?
cheers
roddy

[peat]

alas not.

[peat]

so with it retracing to the 61.8 fib of y'days push down I've shorted tonite at 1.3003 with stop at 1.3036 target 1.29

[roddy]

Hi Peat
the resistance has held yet again,could be a possible ascending triangle in the making on the daily , so might be a brake out to the topside

http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t259/roddy_09/Noname114.jpg

roddy

[peat]

well said Roddy, hope you got some of that.... I was valentining and out... so put in a long limit at 3072 after it popped but didnt get filled.

[roddy]

Hi Peat

Alas no,i was as it happens doing the Dad thing,bedtime story etc,i had my stop worked out and trade strategy but just hadnt gotten around to putting the trade on,i was perhaps a little on the cautious side as the logical place i thought for my stop was 100 pips away at the
1.295 area.

Great to hear you were valentining i hope you enjoyed the evening!!!![8D]
cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Just trying a little short here at 3138 see how it goes!target 3100 and off to bed('[|)]')
[|)]
http://i162.photobucket.com/albums/t259/roddy_09/Noname115.jpg

[peat]

well I cant help but think the upside break of the 3 day TL down for Eur has negated the pressure on it and reconfirmed bullishness. On the daily 20 SMA hasnt gone down this month, there was no DI cross , and ADX is now turning upwards.

[peat]

closed at 1.3247 +97 (from the 20th)
but where now? I'll buy into any dips.

[roddy]

Good CALL Peat once again,after the break of 3190 it hasnt looked back so far,yes would appear the upside is stronger with support at 3190,i was on the wrong side of the kiwi last nite never mind!

[peat]

have re-entered long at 3206 stop 3174

bailed on this now.... +25

mid 31's a risk until 3260 is cleared

[peat]

long here from 1.3096. Took this out at about 5 AM this morning and was quickly negative but a stop at 3062 held.
Now, on the hourly MACD looks like its crossing up from down below, Chande Momentum Oscillator has bounced of -50 twice and on the two hourly is showing divergence - Price hasnt made a new low for 6 hours...
Could be just a rest of course so stop is raised up to 3082 , a bit too tight perhaps , mere noise could take me out but its either gonna bounce now or not imo, target is 3145 could be extended later but that will do for now.


EDIT - yeh stop was too tight, it just took me out and bounced up a bit. maynot have missed much tho...

[peat]

From Elliotwave.com
Food for thought. I guess what intrigues me about this is that if we are in a B wave then the C is generally pretty devastating. Although I'm short term USD bullish at the mo, its difficult to see it having a massive swing up as this pic implies.


http://img57.imageshack.us/img57/1742/eurusdmb32907ig7.gif[/URL]

[Bilo]

Hi Peat
I took a glance at your Euro/USD chart and didn't realise that I wasn't on the NZD/USD thread. If you look at the last two years of NZD/USD it looks very similar. Is the NZD/USD going to go up and up also??

[peat]

Eur hit its lows 6 months earlier than NZ. I'm thinking this graph indicates the completion of B at some stage soonish and C being downwards. C's can be powerful. If you look at the couple of other ABC examples even in that chart you can see that. So Eur down according to ElliotWave I think.
NZD down too I think. As you say they have certain similarities. I will post in that thread.

[arco]

Whats to stop the EURO testing the old 2004 high?
and even making a handle (for a C&H pattern)......

My weekly Euro chart has been long @ 2371 since
28th April 06, and thats showing over 1000 pips.
No turn appearing on that chart presently.

regards - arco

[peat]

From Elliotwave.com

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/forexfocus/fofo%205-3-07.gif

[Bilo]

Peat
I read some stuff during the week that indicated that it might go in the opposite direction to your arrow. Employment data in US considered the key. Some internal disenchantment with the Euro.
Missing the USD on the global scene. Fix the war and fix the USD.

[peat]

just for the record tis not mine , tis from elliotwave.com
yes there are divided opinions of course it is a market! NFP will probably show the way .... long from 1.3552 not risking too much tho, hopefully there will be something of a buffer in the trade before the freak show tonite.

[peat]

limiit taken at 1.3589 +37

[peat]

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=fex*aid=3070*time=pm

so even tho they start off in the article saying eeveryone is USD bearish but usually everyone is wrong , they then say the current down for Eur is corrective (going against the larger trend). so presumably they're actually $ bearish Eur bullish.

I think.

[peat]

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/1713/eurusd3hr22052007fibameyl4.jpg
A confluence of fib levels at 1.3440 makes me think a correction to 1.3530 is likely. Long at 3468. 40 pip stop (at any new lows)

[arco]

Hi Peat

Theres a Gann support area circa 3522, so theres always a chance that may help.

(I've got a small Cable long in place - heading nowhere fast at the mo - however, it should move north out of the flag at some point.)

Base forming always takes time as the bias changes.

regards - arco

[peat]

the pounds has similar fib levels just below 1.97 by my calcs

[arco]

Seems to correspond closely with Gann support at 1.97144

(Cable currently +6......see how we go)

[peat]

ok, stopped at 1.3427. humph.
the hourly closed at a new low.

[arco]

Hi Peat

Just took 20 pips on that Euro drop, and also closed
my cable at 20.5pips. Its a wild ride at the moment
so i'll let it settle into a trend before getting
back in.

Theres a UK announcment in about 45 mins
- Wed May 23 4:30am ET GBP BOE Meeting Minutes,
not sure if thats whats causing the volatility.


arco

[peat]

you're a good trader arco!

I'm hoping Aud/Jpy can compensate me. up 27 there as of now.

[arco]

Thanks Peat

I've just taken another 11.5 pips on the up stroke :)

Might have a beer now.

Good luck with the Aud/Jpy

regards - arco

[peat]

[}:)]
got toasted unnecessarily here, very galling... back up to the 60's now.
its all about knowing when to be strong and when not to...

[arco]

Morning Peat

When news releases are imminent I always widen my stops because there are so many news traders (and new traders) now. The market makers gun for stops and take them out (and in), only to reverse the position shortly afterwards.

In the recent past, central banks, commercial banks and investment banks dominated the forex market. Due to the entry of forex market makers, other market players like international money brokers, large multinational companies, registered dealers, global money managers, and private speculators have entered the market in large numbers.

I have personally noticed the movement of the pairs has changed dramatically over the last few years. Stops need to be wider now to accomodate the wilder fluctuations.

regards -arco

[peat]

http://www.seasonalcharts.com/cash/currenci/euro_usd/chart.gif

seems like one should only trade in the 4 months leading up to Christmas! ;)

[arco]

I am going to do some tests with those charts tomorrow if I get time.

Meanwhile........

Strong IFO Fails to Rally the Euro

The IFO survey printed slightly below expectations matching the same reading as last month which was just a whisker below the record highs of 108.7 set in December of 2006. The Current Assessment component was a bit lower than forecast at 112.5 vs. 113.5 as high energy costs and lackluster domestic demand tempered business enthusiasm. Overall however, the number continues to point to very healthy growth in the Euro-zone, as the high exchange rates appear to have little negative impact on European manufacturers.

Nevertheless, the EURUSD itself sold off a bit going into the number and stayed at session lows after the news was released as traders had hoped for stronger results that would convince the ECB to raise rates beyond the 4% level expected to be set in June. As it stands now, the IFO data shows no signs of overheating in the Euro-zone economy and provides ECB with ample time to consider the next policy tightening move. Going forward market attention is likely to turn away from the European manufacturing sector and instead focus on the EZ consumer especially the Germans.

Hampered by a near 30% increase in VAT at the start of this year, German consumer spending has been the weak link in the region?s economic recovery. German Retail Sales have consistently missed their mark over the past few months and that dynamic was reflected in today?s German GDP data which showed a sharp -1.4% decline in Private Consumption. The negative consumption news was offset by better than expected business investment flows, but until and unless the German consumer demand picks up markedly, the ECB is unlikely to raise rates beyond the 4% barrier. The EURUSD therefore continues to flounder in the 1.3400-1.3650 range as European data alone is not powerful enough to push the pair higher. Only a further deterioration in US fundamentals will make the euro bullish scenario of 1.3700 or higher come true.

[arco]

Morning All

Last nights short hit its 20 pip target (1.3420) at 2AM
as I lay peacefully in the land of nod.

arco

[Dazza]

Ok im back trading FX again. Have a new strategy

Will only trade EURUSD or AUDUSD
Focus is on TA only,
Using 1 hour, 15 min and 5 min charts.
Williams %, Bollening bands, slow stochastic.
Because im a very small player, will on trade 10k units at a time ie 1 pip = $1.

Saw a short today:
at 5pm on 15 min chart

opened a position at 3304, stop at 3330
just saw it went to 3275 lowest
am not to sure when to take profit

but i remember arco saying take profits wheneva possible! :D

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

Ok im back trading FX again. Have a new strategy

Will only trade EURUSD or AUDUSD
Focus is on TA only,
Using 1 hour, 15 min and 5 min charts.
Williams %, Bollening bands, slow stochastic.
Because im a very small player, will on trade 10k units at a time ie 1 pip = $1.

Saw a short today:
at 5pm on 15 min chart

opened a position at 3304, stop at 3330
just saw it went to 3275 lowest
am not to sure when to take profit

but i remember arco saying take profits wheneva possible! :D

Perhaps move your stop to 3290 to lock in some profit while letting the trade run???

[peat]

thats great Dazza
as you may or may not know I am long USD/CHF and being short Eur is effectively a v.similar trade.
The Williams R gave a perfect sell signal at 5 well done , its getting down to 100 now tho , perhaps use a trailing stop once your target is reached , heres some fib extns I drew up on this pair
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/6366/eurusd1hr13062007smallds9.jpg

[Dazza]

yeah i used the fibs to target the 50% retracement at around the 3310ish mark (i drew it from around 5pm the earlier drop from 3340 to the low of 3290 then it bounced back up again)

so i missed it and saw it heading down again hense jumped it at 3304.


Regarding the stop steve, yes i think the 3290 level is a good place to stop it at.

This first trade back in the game is going beta than i intended, target is 20 pips per trade.

Peat - regarding trailing stops whats a good strategy? I have read up on the 1R, 2R theory but yeah.

I trade with CMC markets, and i dun tink i can put an auto trailing stop loss, so will have to put a manual one instead.


any advice on how to use a proper trailing stop loss?

Regards,
Dazza
currently up +35 pips

[Dazza]

Because i am using mainly williams % since that is similar to stochoastic, i delved on peat saying it is nearing -100.

So i decided to close my position at 3288. Gained 36 pips for this trade.

Am happy with my first trade coming back into the game.

Will wait for next sell signal, im bearish on the EUR/USD with the general market sentiment of late, and another rule i learnt NEVA TRADE AGAINST THE TREND, current trend is shorting, so i will just short.

Will keep you guys updated and please do critique me along the way, i have high respect for those that post on the FX boards at ST here :D

[peat]

true CMC's MarketMaker doesnt offer trailing stops. Have to place them manually such is life. probably worth the effort tho if it helps maximise a trade.
good start dazza. as an alchy friend of mine says "have a juice".

[Dazza]

what kind of trailing stops do people use/suggest?

[arco]

Dazza

One solution is the Count Back Line, which can also be used for entries. (Made famous by Darryl Guppy).

http://www.guppytraders.com/gup332_files/image001.gif

Info here.............

http://www.guppytraders.com/gup332.shtml

Sometimes on FX people use a set number of pips which can be anything from 20+

regards - arco

[Dazza]

Trade #3

Shorted at 3294
Stop at 3314
Limit at 3270

Cheeky trade be4 i turn myself in, will see if this and Trade #2 was a deal or not.

I noticed very volutile during last hour due to reports coming out of america

Note to myself: do not trade around when reports come out, can distorte the TA :D

[Steve]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

Note to myself: do not trade around when reports come out, can distorte the TA :D

I also trade with CMC and found that they issued a notice warning of greater volatility prior to the last US non-farm payroll announcement.

[Dazza]

trade #3 got stopped

as well as trade #2

-14 pips so far

Note: only have 1 trade going at a time!

[Dazza]

Just executed trade #4

3365 - 3272 is where i set my fibs
50% retrace at 3318


1 hour chart still down trend.
15 min and 5 min charts overbrought on williams %

Shorted 10k at 3312
Stop set at 3325
i missed the 6pm short around 3315 mark, i wanted to short around there when it was at 3312, but then it just tanked around 25 pips, there goes my 20 pip trade for today - though at least i could predict it would have a good chance that it will fall.

[Dazza]

it was basically flat at one stage was up 10 pips

then 1230am, in US the PPI came out, and man did hte EURO tank or what!!

down 30 pips but then zooomed back up again.

I held my nerves of steal to see a 30 pip gain vulporised, and went into the red.

then it came back down again

and becuase of so much volitility, i closed it at 3292 - gaining 20 pips

So trade #4 closed 20 pips gained.

in total 6 pip up.
not bad, and still learning slowly :D

[arco]

Testing Gann pivot 3427 (see CHF post).
Watching for change of polarity.

arco

[arco]

This could be hatching in the future................

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/062907EuroW.gif

Maybe not ready just yet, but the signs of a brooding
Monarch are there in the wings for all to see..........

...all we need is the reversal signal to show....
.....and if this is confirmed Euro may fall to the Blue box.


fun times - arco

[Craig3215]

I'll be looking for turn down around the 38 area
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/eur.jpg

[arco]

Hi Craig

Yes, getting close now. Compare the previous weekly BF chart with
these smaller breeds on the daily. Blues target just above, red still to complete - approx targets red boxes below.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/071207Euro.gif

regards -arco