EUR.USD

[Craig3215]

Hey Arco,

Yeah I am long a small piece still with a limit at 38... I'm gonna add another small limit at 38 and then see where we go from there... last month I went all in at the trendline support 3350 and it imediately went down about 100 pips, my margin ran out and they liquidated my position... I was able to hop back in later but this time I'm trying to remember that this is the long term trendline... good to see that we're on the same page though from what I've seen of your previous posts thats a good place to be

[arco]

Hi Craig

Due to the complexity of the Red Butterfly Harmonics (having 3 possible choices of XA legs), this pattern could even complete in the Blue BF PRZ.

Therefore the action could still probe beyond 3800 (see weekly chart Blue potential Butterfly PRZ).

regards - arco

[Craig3215]

Hi Arco,
It does look as though this is going through 38 soon, I'm looking to hop in around 3780 with a stop around 3767, seems like a low risk trade for potentially 70 pips or so
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/eur2.jpg

[arco]

Craig

Based on some medium/longer term active Gann calcs its
always possible 4150 will be seen - if they follow thru.

As the chart unfolds I will update the Gann figures

regards - arco

[Craig3215]

That 21 pip lower shadow on the hourly took me out I guess the big guys made some money on me there taking out some obvious stops only to have it pop right back not giving up on this one yet though getting back in at 3780 with same play... fool me once...

[miner]

Craig usd/chf does the opposite to this one so is handy when trying to make an entry as they confirm each other,if you look it spiked north when this one went south and took you out.

P.S,see how usd/chf turned at 1.2033 on the 15min which gave a long entry on eur/usd.

Cheers
Miner

[Steve]

I read a snippet that 1.3855 thereabouts will be a major test and should that fail then a drop back to the 1.35's is likely.

If the 1.3855 test is passed, then 1.4150 is the potential target.

Is that similar to what you are suggesting, Arco?

[arco]

Hi Steve/All

I see some Gann resistance at late 3800/early 3900 which could turn the plot around for awhile with some strong support below circa 3672.

Still looking towards 4150, and maybe circa 4500 to complete that big ol' brown moth from 2004-2006

rgds - arco

[bogus1]

max has elliot wave count currently a 3 running to 1.4565
jan 07 1.2870 to 1.3680 (1), 1.3270 (2)
i am thinkink a correction to 1.3650 ish before runs again , hopefully usd chf confirming eur usd short

[arco]

Hi bogus1

Thanks, I'll check those figures and see if/how they fit in with my model.......presume you are talking about Max McK? If so, Peat subscribed for awhile, but I dont think it worked for him, so are his tips working for you?

....Only because I'm wondering if I should start a tipping service myself :D

Anyway, I am currently +28 (was higher) on the Chf short, and +20 on the Euro long. Cant complain todays P&L looks very black at the moment .

rgds - arco from the butterfly house

[bogus1]

yeah had a free trial subscription ,its always interesting to hear other opinions but i dont know about the tip sheet thing.get emails from time to time, one of the latest was about some punter who went big on a kiwi short he had recommended just prior to the first intervention ,so good on max for picking that one, but i couldnt part with my hard earned cash

[bogus1]

arco........ long euro target 3500 pips 170 ish, this is maxs elliot wave count i was mentioning before ,abc corrective starting 2000 with a = c wave also abcd pattern has a d point projection at 170.
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/ScreenHunter_01Jul2620.02.gif

[arco]

bo

Interesting, but I've seen Prechter go badly wrong many many times with his long term EW predictions. Maybe Max will be proved to be right, we'll just have to wait until 2010 to find out.

regds - arco

[Craig3215]

Hi Arco,
Agreed on Prechter, his long term target for the Dow is 300... enough said, as for Eur/usd I'm going to continue to short on these bounces looking for a move down to 3530 as suggested by my prior chart on the 11th.

[peat]

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=fex*aid=3247*time=pm

so they're sayin a long maybe

Max said this on the 2nd Aug
Euro's undergoing complex corection & whilst holding
Support about the mid 1.3600's yields rally back toward the 1.3850 level

I still have 6 months left of my subscription to Max but am not trading with real money anymore. Havin a fling in demo , it so much easier lol.

[Craig3215]

Hey Peat,

That Jim Martens has been pretty good with his calls on Eur/Usd lately... I'm going long here at 3570, finally hit the trendline on the weekly that I posted a while ago... also I'm attaching Jim's video from Friday looks like this is playing out the way he suggested hopefully it will continue to do so, he is calling this a wave 5 of wave c
http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jm/10-transitions/default.aspx?code=omkt

[arco]

Hello Craig/All

I calculate some powerful looking Gann 3498-3551 which may assist
as support/reversal. There is also a harmonic pattern target zone in
this area, which could then in turn form a bullish Gartley 222.

I'll be waiting for a confirmed reversal pattern before attempting a
long, although the 'catch a falling knife limit trick' may yield good results
off Gann points. (...this is definately not a tactic for widows and orphans)

GTA - arco

NB. Craig - Cant get to the video clip without a password.

[Craig3215]

Hey Arco/All,

Below is the chart that he shows in the video and the updated weekly chart... as far as getting access to the video I forgot that you do have to get a user name and password, its free you just have to give your e-mail address, he puts out the free video once a week on friday... Also Arco thanks for recommending Slopeofhope very entertaining and Tim has been on point recently

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/eurelliott.jpg

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/eurweek814.07.jpg

[arco]

Post...14/8
I calculate some powerful looking Gann 3498-3551 which may assist
as support/reversal. There is also a harmonic pattern target zone in
this area, which could then in turn form a bullish Gartley 222.

The reversal came over the Gann points with a Morning Star derivitive
and has given 250 pips so far.

Bit more to come me thinks http://www.trade2win.com/boards/images/smilies_new/icon_rolleyes.gif

GTA -arco

[dumbass]

This could be hatching in the future................

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/062907EuroW.gif

Maybe not ready just yet, but the signs of a brooding
Monarch are there in the wings for all to see..........

...all we need is the reversal signal to show....
.....and if this is confirmed Euro may fall to the Blue box.


fun times - arco

this crab compliments big picture pattern

[arco]

DA
Careful with those Crabs buddy - the're protected ya know.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/smilies/wink.gif

These guys obviously read ST

Euro to Reach $1.4550 on $1.3852 Break, Citigroup's Charts Show

By Kosuke Goto

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may advance to a record high of $1.4550 against the dollar should it break the previous high of $1.3852, said analysts at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., citing charts that predict price movements.

That would match the high for the euro's ``theoretical value'' between August and September 1992, before the single European currency was created in 1999. The measure is calculated using the spot rates of the currencies that were then expected to form the euro, including the British Pound, German mark, French franc and Dutch gilder.

``The 1.3837-53 area on the euro-dollar remains very pivotal in the `big picture,''' analysts led by New York-based global head of currency strategy Tom Fitzpatrick, wrote in a research note yesterday. ``A decisive break above this range would open up the way for renewed gains. This could possibly take us all the way back to the Aug/Sept 1992 highs around 1.4550-75.''

The 1.3837-53 area is not only ``the recent trend high, but also the major pivot point in 1995,'' Fitzpatrick said.

The euro traded at $1.3797 versus the dollar at 6 a.m. in London from $1.3802 late yesterday in New York. It reached the record high on July 24. Europe's single currency has risen 4.5 percent versus the dollar in the past three months.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at kgoto2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 11, 2007 01:25 EDT

[arco]

We have now reached the target area mentioned on 16th July (Post# 504)

quote..... Based on some medium/longer term active Gann calcs its
always possible 4150 will be seen

Currently the action is within a butterfly PRZ, with a major Gann just above circa 1.4200,
so always a chance of a some retracement in the near future.

Watching in the wings for a potential signal..............

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

major fib zone 14150 - 142 + patterns already discussed, i am anticipating some reaction however if this area taken out

next stop confluence around 145 zone , you got anything to confirm 145 arco

[arco]

DB

I mentioned on 23/7 - Post 508.

................and maybe circa 4500 to complete that big ol' brown
moth from (April) 2004-2006 (Nov05)

Depending on time frame there is an active Gann ovehead which
increases in value as each day passes. Tomorrow circa 4200

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

morning arco

can u post the pattern mentioned on previous post relating to 145 ,i cant quite get it

[arco]

DB

Heres that big ol' brown moth you requested
- given over 2000 pips for long term holders

You may also notice it was a profitable 400+ pip Gartley 50/886
that eventually turned into the moth.

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

so fib projection from pattern completion , i guess 127 takes it to 145 ish

[arco]

I make it.....................based on weekly chart

1272 = 1.4217

(1414 = 1.4505)

rgds - arco

[peat]

From EWI
http://www.elliottwave.com/images/forexfocus/fofo%209-25-07.gif

[dumbass]

contemplating a short , fib zones 14180 or level up 14220

[arco]

Morning All

Major Gann (as mentioned recently) is now just above circa 4215-4221 which
ties in nicely with the brown moths 1272 @ 4217. We should certainly see
some hesitation at this point, and its time to look for that confirming reversal
signal.

Thanks for EW chart Peat

rgds -arco

[dumbass]

i feel i may have jumped the gun a little with short 14175 will phase in more

a few signs printing, would that be termed a shooting star on daily candlestick arco

[peat]

not exactly DA

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/terms/shootingstar.gif


A type of candlestick formation that results when a security's price, at some point during the day, advances well above the opening price but closes lower than the opening price.

In order for a candlestick to be considered a shooting star, the formation must be on an upward or bullish trend. Furthermore, the distance between the highest price for the day and the opening price must be more than twice as large as the shooting star's body. Finally, the distance between the lowest price for the day and the closing price must be very small or nonexistent.

[dumbass]

thanks pete , its my achillies heel the candelstick stuff, but i am getting nisons book and yet

more study

i do believe you got to be a good allrounder

[peat]

maybe this little bearish gartley shape will assist

http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/5695/eurusd15min28092007kz8.th.jpg (http://img396.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusd15min28092007kz8.jpg)

I also spotted a bullish one on Eur/GPB
http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1841/eurgbp15min298092007qw2.th.jpg (http://img254.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurgbp15min298092007qw2.jpg)

[roddy]

DB

to confirm an ideal shooting star pattern according to Louise Bedford,for confirmation of the pattern the next trading period should be below the body of the shooting star and a red shooting star has more bearish significance!

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

talking books just got fibonacci for active trader , derrik hobbs , very logical interesting book

i reckon we should get a bit of swap a book going , that hobbs book was hard to find and dam pricey

[roddy]

DB

have just ordered Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game (Hardcover)
by Kathy Lien (Author), Boris Schlossberg (Author),


From what i gather they the Authors interviewed 12 top traders not all fx but trade their own market of choice very well,i will review the book when it arrives.
Boris and a trader are shown on a video,Boris says athletes make good traders because they are highly disciplined and know how to handle pain!

roddy

[arco]

Interesting that the original Hobbs book is out of print, but he has one coming out in Germany 2007/2008.

Fibonacci-trading für aktive Trader: Fibonacci-techniken verstehen und anwenden

Kurzbeschreibung
Derrik Hobbs präsentiert Ihnen in seinem neuen Buch die erfolgreichsten Fibonacci- Strategien. Diese 7 Techniken helfen Ihnen, bei Aktien, Indizes, Devisen und Rohstoffen die wichtigsten Wendepunkte zu erkennen und diese frühzeitig und profitabel zu antizipieren. Jede der Strategien wird zusammen mit dem passenden Regelwerk vorgestellt. Dabei erklärt Hobbs nicht nur Entry- und Exit-Punkte, sondern auch, wie man den Stopp-Loss am besten setzt und anpasst und wie man Positionen langsam aufbzw. abbaut. Ein Buch, das Ihre Tradingresultate schlagartig verbessern wird. • Lernen Sie, wie man Fibonacci-Setups unverfälscht erkennen kann • Erkennen Sie den idealen Preislevel für das Eröffnen eines Trades • Erfahren Sie, wie man Verluste begrenzt und Gewinne laufen lässt • Tauchen Sie in die Welt von Fibonacci-Trading ein

Der Verlag über das Buch
- Lernen Sie, wie man Fibonacci-Setups unverfälscht erkennen kann! - Erkennen Sie den idealen Preislevel für das Eröffnen eines Trades! - Erfahren Sie, wie man seine Stopps platziert und wie man Verluste begrenzt und Gewinne laufen lässt! - Tauchen Sie in die Welt von Fibonacci-Trading mit mehr als 150 praktischen Beispielen ein!

Which roughly translates to

Short description Derrik Hobbs presents you in his new book the most successful Fibonacci strategies. These 7 techniques help you to recognize and these promptly and profitable antizipieren with shares, indices, foreign exchange and raw materials the most important turning points. Each of the strategies is introduced together with the suitable set of rules. Hobbs explains not only entry and points of exit, but also, how one sets the stop Loss best and adapts and how one diminishes positions slowly aufbzw.. A book, which will improve your Tradingresultate suddenly? Do you learn, how one can recognize Fibonacci Setups genuinely? Do you recognize the ideal price level for opening a trade? Do you experience, how one limits losses and lets profits run? Dive into the world from Fibonacci Trading The publishing house over the book - learning it, how one can recognize Fibonacci Setups genuinely! - recognizing it the ideal price level for opening a trade! - experiencing it, how one platziert its stops and how one limits losses and lets profits run! - dipping it into the world of Fibonacci Trading with more than 150 practical examples!

34 Euro.

[dumbass]

your german is not too shabby arco

[peat]

well a bit of a test for weak longs last night in this and the yen crosses too.

seems that there were some signs here tho, maybe not perfect patterns but definitely bearish formations twice - my trades werent perfect but overall worked out ok.

http://img218.imageshack.us/img218/8236/eurusd15min02102007ok7.th.jpg (http://img218.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusd15min02102007ok7.jpg)

[arco]

Nice going Peat

Scaling down onto the weeklys we get an interesting picture emerging.

Plot currently hovering around 1272 of the red PTZ and blue PRZ.

regds - arco

[roddy]

yeah Peat,

i have been standing aside waiting of late gets a bit boring after awhile,good that you have made some pips tho!

were you trading fib levels on short time frame

cheers roddy

[peat]

yes roddy just looking for gartleyesque shapes and entering when it seemed to be happening as one would hope/expect , so not exactly in at the PRZ as I should, but letting it show me it has bounced off the PRZ convincingly and then using the trading strategies in the Carney book I borrowed off Paul (DumbA**) and drawing the new trendline and never letting it go bad. All in the very short time frame of 5min candles.

At this (early) stage I am wondering if all the ratios and names in the Carney book are a little OTT and that the main value behind any Gartley is that you are entering at a level that has strong resistance (in a bearish trade) eg it has retraced somewhere between 61.8 to 88.6% and this gives a good risk reward ratio due to a 100% retracement being the stop loss.
But as I say its early days for me for this book - I've only had it two days and I'm on call for work so even evenings are soaked up by wage slavery.

[roddy]

Hi Peat,

just put on a short of the break 4200,stop 4250

cheers
roddy

[peat]

this is why I'm seeing the Euro as ready to turn.
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/1597/eurusddaily02102007mq6.th.jpg (http://img251.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusddaily02102007mq6.jpg)

all those three fib levels - 2x161% ext's and a 261% extension all around the 1.42 level. Oh, and the RSI is overbought and turning down through the 70 level. it hasnt shown divergence tho.
According to the strategy in the book I just leant DA the sell signal only comes thoug, when the price breaks the low of the highest day which in this case is about 1.4150. When that breaks target should be 1.39 ish and stop would be close to high 1.43's which is too high imo. probably better to have a much smaller stop and have some more ammo for later.
lets see how this goes. you can see from the pic i shorted at 1.4206 but it wasnt a highly rational trade or at least it was based on a breakout principle - highly fallible.

[roddy]

Hi Peat

150 pips is big,i try to risk only 2% max per trade,then i can live another day!
i am at break even on this at present,will hold for a bit yet,4150 would of been safer than where i am at present,good strategy

[arco]

Hi Peat/Roddy

My concern at this point is that the current action on smaller timeframes
could be printing a final? bull flag before a reversal may occur.

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

afternoon guys

i feel this is another trade worth a look

elliot wave 5 in progress with an imminent abc correction to 140 ish

should have a close look at reversal around 144 Butterfly on hourlies

[dumbass]

in 4th wave

b will possibly test 61.8 of a then c down

big pips is picking the c bottom for 1.50 + long

[peat]

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/4407/eurusdhourly11122007uh7.th.jpg (http://img135.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eurusdhourly11122007uh7.jpg)

[Steve]

OUCH! Went on holiday last week without putting a stop in. :confused:

There went my gains shorting the Euro for the last few weeks in the 3 days since xmas...

[peat]

bugger
missed out on this short last night.

[Steve]

Well, I clawed back about a third of last weeks losses!... :rolleyes:

[arco]

Bravely held Steve.....


...................you may be able to save your
bacon as Euro does a retrace to possibly form
a BC leg of the potential blue butterfly shown.

The red BF 2nd target is shown as the higher red box,
which would if all goes well, form the blue BF for another
correction.

rgds - arco

[Steve]

Hey Arco

What are the parameters of your lower chart?

[arco]

stochastic Dinapoli 833

I've mentioned it here before.

arco

[Steve]

Thanks Arco, I will do a search...

[Steve]

Could the daily EURUSD be forming a double-top?

[arco]

Steve

IMO there perhaps could still be one more push higher to complete a 5 wave.

Check the chart in post 555. The current action is heading along the blue leg line BC south from 1.4922 pivot point. That leg should/could terminate on the minor uptrend line circa 1.4550/4600 (not plotted). However, any break through that line should be viewed with caution, but if we see a reversal north at that point then CD is most likely underway to the red box target area shown - 1.5200-5400. Thats the red BF target and would also form a new blue BF for a fall south.

GTA - arco

[peat]

This video was ineresting Elliot Wave applied to Eur and I would interpret what they are saying as that Eur/USD is in a 4th wave and that this wave could be a bit protracted and form a contracting triangle

Heres a pic from it



and try either of these links to get to the vid itself

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jm/educational-video-series/default.aspx?code=fofovid&cn=jmvid&page=jimmclub011808&title=What's%20Next%20for%20the%20U.S.%20Dollar?

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=fex*aid=3635*time=pm

[Steve]

Thanks for the Elliot link, Peat.

Am I correct in seeing a link between Elliot and Butterflies?

[Steve]

It would appear that once again the EURUSD has failed to hit 1.5000 at the end of last week and is now dropping away below 1.4800

Thats now 3 times that it has failed...

[roddy]

Hi Steve,

Been worthwhile staying up have picked up 89 pips on the way down,some of the data out of the EURO was not quite as good as expected

[Steve]

Woke up this morning to find it had dropped down to 1.4650!

Yes, there was a surprise in the Euro data, however the drop is a bit surprising given that there has been some more bad data out of the US overnight...

[dumbass]

you could argue steve with such aggresive fed cuts in such a short period of time not moving the euro higher
this one was in the tea leaves

form a technical point of view i feel this is going to be a sharp correction before the final blow off top to 150 + then would look at a long term short on euro

so looking for a long entry

see trade of the week thread for a picture

[Steve]

Since the sizable dip a couple of days ago, the EURUSD has spent the last 48 hours in a narrow trading range (30min chart).

With the ECB rate announcement only a matter of hours away, the pressure is building for a significant breakout of the trading range - question is "To be LONG or to be SHORT?" :confused:

There have been some more bad numbers out of the US, but there have also been rumblings that things are not looking so flash in Euroland. I wonder what the ECB comments will indicate...

[peat]

heres what Jyske Bank say

We expect that ECB will leave rates unchanged and stick to their hawkish rhetoric. However, with this week’s weak economic indicators the risk is that they introduce a more dovish or at least neutral rhetoric.

[roddy]

Hi Peat/DB

i haven't heard yet what the ECB came out with ,whether they dropped their hawkish view,
i went short at 4619 up about 150 pips this morning will keep holding to see if 1.44 goes or we get the reversal

cheers
roddy

[peat]

From CNN

The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.25% while the European Central Bank held its key interest rate steady at 4%

[dumbass]

morning roddy

just a word of caution with the reversal with wave E

if it is a triangle wave E rarely finishes on the trend line , so watch for a false downside breakout

[roddy]

Hi DB

will keep an eye on false break out,whatever the eod close is i will move my stop up accordingly with about 90 pips to move will be my strategy,which would lock in 40 odd pips at present levels.

[Steve]

It has been a good week for being caught short...

[dumbass]

looking like dollar rally is dead and buried

long eurusd and gbpusd

[roddy]

Hi DB

Yeah was watching this one Friday night,the euro zone had dissapointing data come thru but
failed to take out further lows so i exited at 4492,so will see what eventuates this week

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

morning rod

i have a long on but with a very tight stop , i still think it might test the lower trend line before the big run north

[roddy]

DB

yes looking forward to the northward move on EURO as well,
are you short CAD,as you will be aware it had quite a good down day on the close of last week,i will look to go short on an upside.

cheers
roddy

[Steve]

Has the EURUSD hit a resistance level around 1.4640, and will this be the end of the upwards movement?

[roddy]

Hi Steve
this does not answer your question but is interesting

two days ago i found this over at dailyfx Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

His chart and count was exactly the same as DB/ARCO this is what he had to say regard the EURO


Quote {"A triangle as a 4th wave may be complete at the 2/7 low of 1.4438. Expectations are for a bullish breakout that in the coming weeks that completes wave 5 within the 5 wave advance from 1.3261. Wave E of the triangle has taken the form of a zigzag. As long as price is above 1.4438, maintain a bullish stance. It looks as if the EURUSD could explode higher any moment now, given that the rally from 1.4438 may be a series of 1st and 2nd waves -- a common pattern that occurs before a big move.

Certain psychology attends different waves. This is an excerpt from the Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost’s classic on EW theory and application.

"E waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built...intensifies bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, E waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of fifth waves"

This sounds like the current environment from a psychological standpoint.
Risk for bulls at this point is small. The most bullish count would treat the rally from 1.4438 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves 1-2-i of 3-ii of 3. This count remains intact as long as price is above 1.4431 but there are other bullish counts that are valid as long as price is above 1.4479. As such, risk should be kept to just below 1.4479}
cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

morning roddy

its a great web site daily fx really use it a lot
jamies pretty accurate with his calls
i use it as a base and bring in candlestick and harmonics over the top

having a good week from eurusd , gbpusd , eurjpy , gbpjpy 1000 pips +
mainly acting on his elliot counts


i guess the only problem i can see with his eurusd count is that all waves in a triangle should be three wave corrective patterns.

if you bring up an hourly and check the wave pattern wave e looks like a 5 wave impulsive move down rather than the other waves look like 3 wave messy corrections which means the current up trend is only a correction and not the big move were anticipating to 150 +

so even though i am long i am cautious

if there were 2 waves down from here to the lower border of triangle it would look better imo

[roddy]

Hi DB

I think i get the gist of what you are referring to i havent done much elliott wave ,BUT i will tread carefully on the EURO

Hey great trading DB,1000 PIP thats totally impressive!!

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

just looking at euro again there is a good risk reward trade to add long with stop loss to 145 70 (hammer) on hourlys

currently risk 70 for 400+

assuming your a bull (which makes sense for the direction to trade)

[roddy]

Hi DB

have dialed that one in with stop at 4570,

i have a short on cad at 9960 last nite in expectation of the southward move would get underway off the1 hr chart and fall thru support 9940 levels but at present that hasnt happened yet.

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

morning guys

deciding on direction for next week looks like euro topping out

i still feel the way the action is unfolding current rally is corrective and not impulsive

there needs to be a 5 wave down to complete triangle

this rally looks best counted as an abc a=c right where were at now

so will close longs and try a short , divergence on hourly backs this up

so looks like a little dollar strength again this week

[Steve]

It will be interesting to see where the EURUSD goes on mondays trading. There is the possibility that it may get back up to the mid-1.48s with the indication of a further cut in US interest rates coming up.

I think that I read somewhere recently that the long-term equilibrium rate is 1.30? Can anyony verify that?

[dumbass]

yeah should be interesting

the article that roddy posted from dailyfx would back up a bullish stance and that guy is

really good but sometimes you just got say it as you see it

i still believe a bullish run on the euro will happen but there will be a better entry

[peat]

yes this 4th wave is supposedley going to be protract3ed and complex, and must confuse people and trap them into bearishness before unleashing its upward 5th so I will allow your volte-face DA. heheh.
This is EW vid is a week old now and seems to have got last week right (in hindsight?) and remainsd undecided about what happens now (this next week)

http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jm/educational-video-series/default.aspx?code=fofovid&cn=jmvid&page=jimmclubfeb8&title="Has%20the%20Dollar%20Bottomed?"%20(Released%20Feb.%2008 (http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jm/educational-video-series/default.aspx?code=fofovid&cn=jmvid&page=jimmclubfeb8&title=))

USD/CAD, sometimes considered a leader supports you , but I'm gonna hold the Eur longs a little longer, try and get a partial take somewhere towards 1.48. i'm thinking a bit of range trading is necessary tho.

[dumbass]

agree with the complex nature of corrections makes them hard to trade

i feel this is maybe a time to tighten stops on a long or have a cheeky short

US closed tonight i think, so not much direction today probably

[Steve]

Trading in a tight range so far today. I guess we will have to wait for the US to re-open to get some direction...

[roddy]

Hi All

i have been away from my computer, which for me is not a bad thing,i got stopped on CAD trade last week but still have a long going on the EURO,
yeah Peat 1.48 is looking a little closer at present!

cheers
roddy

[Steve]

Hi All

i have been away from my computer, which for me is not a bad thing,i got stopped on CAD trade last week but still have a long going on the EURO,
yeah Peat 1.48 is looking a little closer at present!

cheers
roddy

Yes, the last 3 hours or so have been quite strong...

[dumbass]

yes back on track

the retracement from yesterday stopped on the up trend line on hourlies so target 150 + again

[roddy]

Hi All

Would like to see EURO brake 1.48 level,i might just need to be patient though it is showing some strenght just at present!
heres something interesting
i have read Bloomberg has an article on how most financial markets "have it wrongThe article quotes the Merrill Lynch Chief Economist, Klaus Baader, as saying Trichet is NOT about to cut European interest rates. The headlines are seen as Euro supportive!

cheers
roddy

[peat]

partially closed at 1.48 +200

[roddy]

peat/DB


partially closed at 1.48 +200

nice peat and DB great call on the GB

CHEERS

roddy

[roddy]

Hi DB

thanks for your post on this one DB, your initial 400+ pips has been met and i am still in the trade, now looking for a test of ARCO,S 1.53 levels as per his post 555


just looking at euro again there is a good risk reward trade to add long with stop loss to 145 70 (hammer) on hourlys

currently risk 70 for 400+

assuming your a bull (which makes sense for the direction to trade)


cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

good one roddy

it seems prudent to just keep on moving stops up rather than setting any targets
as the way the market has moved in the last few days , i would have closed way too early

currently running long eurusd gbpusd euraud
short usd cad

not much to change thinking currently

[dumbass]

elliot wave study of bigger time frame

suggestive of a run to 170 + still looking likely

[dumbass]

zooming in to dailys shows wave 4 correction which may take action down possibly to test

wave iv low around 15075 before a run to 15450 15500

similar to aud in that the easy pips are now banked and gets a little harder to trade

i have run loose stop loss which will now be tightened

waiting for top as the lower risk big money trade

[Steve]

elliot wave study of bigger time frame

suggestive of a run to 170 + still looking likely

EURUSD 1.7000? WOW!

What's the chances of that?

[peat]

silver indicated continued usd weakness. Euro just popped a 5 min asc triangle.


back to test?

nope
too testing out -20 which is all it ever might have given too.

[roddy]

Hi All

ExitED EUR at 1.5184 last nite for 538 pip profit after Eur data came thru
i have been in since 1.4644.on this trade,my plan/strategy was to raise stops
progressively,however i went on gut feel and missed out on last nites move,as
my stop was 60 pips away so was never threatened.

today will be looking to get back in on a pullback and <stick to my rules>

cheers
roddy

[roddy]

Hi All

got back on board yesterday,but there was never a pull back as such during the day; up roughly 80 points

heres an interesting stats article regard EURO rsi from thomson.com

[Given that the Reuters forecast for 1-mth EUR/USD was last measured at 1.5200 by the median of forecasters, with the arithmetic mean at 1.5160, spot is roughly 1.3% above expectations.
Daily RSI at 79.35 has only attained these lofty heights five times prior to now in the past three years; on those occasions on two out of five the peak was the next day (Asian session onwards) and it was 15-20 pips higher, then fell 250 and 300 pips. On two occasion the top was 3-6 days later, spot ran up 110-150 pips, and then fell 300; on one occasion it peaked that day, and dropped 260 pips over the next week. That would suggest if spot breaks more than 20 pips higher it is likely to run another big fig or so.
Weekly RSI is at 71.25, has been at or above these levels on 9 occasions over a similar time frame; however with much more volatile results. On four occasions spot peaked weeks later up 400-600 pips; then fell between 700-1100 pips. Twice it peaked the next week 20-30 pips higher, 300-500 pips. On 3 occasions it peaked that week and fell 300-600 pips. One recurrent theme above is that pull backs were between 250-1100 pips; cycle gurus see next week as a temporary cycle top (2-wk pull back) which favours the "up a big fig and fade it" strategy, before further gains. Spot last 1.5360.]

cheers
roddy

[dumbass]

this one going to plan , reversal looking imminent , i think non farm may be the catalyst for a final rally higher then postion for short

[peat]

FWIW what Jyske Bank say tonight

Overnight stock markets and short term USD rates slid as US macroeconomic data showed that home foreclosures keep rising thus fuelling worries concerning the weak US economy. The 2-year US treasury yields fell to 1.45% - the lowest level in 4 years - and market participants are close to pricing in another 75 bps rate cut at the March 18th monetary policy meeting in the Federal Reserve
On the other side of the Atlantic the ECB kept rates on hold at 4% yesterday while revising forecasts for growth downwards and inflation forecasts upwards. At the press conference Governor Trichet underlined the fact that inflation is the European Central Bank’s primary target and he stated that a target rate of 4% is not inconsistent with a continued growth and job creation in the Euro area. Resultantly short term EUR rates rose and the EUR strengthened to new all time highs versus the USD. We stick to the view that a test of the 155.00 on EURUSD (4.80 on USDDKK) isn’t unlikely but with the US job report due for release this afternoon we have chosen not to issue a selling recommendation as another poor reading will be USD-supportive.
The US job report is without a doubt today’s main event. Employment dropped by 17K in January (the first drop in employment since August 2003) and employment indices for the manufacturing and employment sectors indicate that no significant upward adjustment can be expected.

[Craig3215]

as another poor reading will be USD-supportive.

Is that a typo? I would think it would be the opposite unless he's thinking that the fed will cut 75 either way

[peat]

yeh no doubt they mean Eur supportive. their prev statment was saying they couldnt recommend selling Eur as it might test 1.55 which it pretty much did.

(late reply sorry, contrary to popular belief I wasnt glued to the screen all last night, and am now paying the price with a bit of a sore head)

Paul your strategy well implemented could have done okay last night next week the Eur 1.55 PRZ question will presumably be answered more certainly.

[dumbass]

no i didnt trade it even though its following the script

i m a little unconvinced that the top is in , may sneek up 156.50 ish but i would wait for a

trade on the wave 2 retracement for the third wave down

really happy to see it go higher as it makes the correction to 145 more profitable

[dumbass]

heading to interesting levels

[dumbass]

156 50 was a significant target

star print may be significant dependant on the daily bar print tommorrow

shooting star hourlies

divergences galore

maybe just maybe top in place at 156 50

hourly channel broken

must confess to a short at 156 00 sl at 15651 for big reward if this is it

[arco]

DB

There is no daily star on Euro.

There are major discrepancies in Infoscans (Reuters) SP EOD figures
today. You may need to download SP again if you did it midday/early
afternoon.

I complained to them this afternoon and they checked with Reuters.
Even some of the updated charts are still wrong. (Swissy/Aussie, etc).
Check out Kiwi for an amazing gap (error).


rgds - arco

[dumbass]

thanks arco ,

i was checking charts today and saw these gaps all over the place so suspected something was up

its got to be a subliminal message though

heres hoping

[peat]

Oanda often has price gaps in its daily candlesticks on a Monday - see here the Eur has a massive one - but they are due to the weekend the Fri candle close being on Sat morning and the opening time of the new candle at 4PM, missing out NZ daytime trading.
Looks impressive today !

[Steve]

Could this be the significant run to the top before turning bear-shaped? How much of the FMOCs forthcoming meeting has already been factored in to the current rate?

[Steve]

Oanda often has price gaps in its daily candlesticks on a Monday - see here the Eur has a massive one - but they are due to the weekend the Fri candle close being on Sat morning and the opening time of the new candle at 4PM, missing out NZ daytime trading.

Why do they miss out NZ daytime trading on the monday? Is it not significant?

[peat]

steve they dont miss it out but it doesnt show in daily candles - it will show in 3 hour or other time frames....

[Steve]

steve they dont miss it out but it doesnt show in daily candles - it will show in 3 hour or other time frames....

I wonder if other providers do this or if it is Oanda specific? Does it make much of an effect on your TA?

[Steve]

Any thoughts on whether the EURUSD has peaked or whether it is consolidating before another run up to test a new high? I guess the key would be if it holds or breaks 15400?

Closed my short at 15450 last night, which would probably suggest that it will continue lower! ;)

[arco]

Steve

If the top is in theres a possibility of a continued fall towards
the uptrend line IMO. (Green boxes).

The D leg of the BF is a bit extended, so time alone will tell
if this is the correct.

I went short overnight for a nice windfall, but closed all positions
earlier for the long w/e.

arco

[dumbass]

i would agree that top is in

dark cloud cover on the weekly chart is very significant also backed up by shooting star on the daily

there will be some good entrys to go short as this first wave down gets retraced by wave 2

heres a bit of wave personality

wave 2 often retraces so much of wave 1 that most profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends.
investors are thouroughly convinced that the bull market is back to stay

so wave 2 normally gives a sharp correction to 50 - 61.8 of wave 1

so i will aim to wait for wave 2 retracement to set up big short

stop loss at 159 + a few

i would have an ambitious target at 143 (61.8 of complete wave complex )
and also bottom of wave 4

[Steve]

I do wonder if I was too hasty in closing my short at 15450, instead perhaps should have put a lower stop in as a better option?

When do the FX markets re-open, with easter moving around the world?

[arco]

LONDON - The euro showed no sign of cracking under the global macroeconomic pressure on Wednesday, with unexpectedly healthy German business climate data boosting the currency against the beleaguered U.S. dollar and the British pound. And with the European Central Bank predicting above-target inflation (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp) for most of 2008, the euro's rise could be a fixture for months to come.

The German Ifo business climate index showed a largely unexpected rise to 104.8 in March on Wednesday, up from 104.1, in February. The president of the Ifo institute said that companies were more optimistic about exports, despite the strong euro, and had clear plans to hire more workers. The Ifo index is a monthly index compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

Wednesday's bullish data pushed the euro up to $1.58, from $1.56, at the end of trading in Europe. The euro also gained against the pound sterling, up to 0.788 pounds, from 0.787 pounds. The pound was hurt by comments reportedly made by the Bank of England's chief economist, Charles Bean, who said that the British currency suffered downside risks from the size of Britain's current account deficit (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currentaccountdeficit.asp).




www.forbes.com

[Steve]

Trying to decide whether to go short again (with a stop just above the record-high) with the expectation that it is not going to make a newer high this time around.

[dumbass]

hi steve

i have a short on at the moment 5810 with stop loss set at 59 and a few

there is a nice wave count on hourly and a nice upper channel that has been hit

its certainly rallied up pretty strong but i expected as much

great low risk trade if this is a significant move but also a possibilty of being taken out with a new high

[dumbass]

stops to break even on this one bounced off lower channel line with a hammer

but ill still give it a chance

[peat]

Economic comment

IFOoled again
Dario Perkins (ABN Amro)

On Tuesday, I saw a strategist on CNBC confidently assert 'if the euro rises above US$1.60, the ECB is certain to cut interest rates'. Strangely, I can remember the same strategist claiming, some time ago, that a euro above US$1.40 would trigger rate cuts. Since then, the threshold for a rate reduction has increased incrementally, usually by US$0.05 at a time
(everyone prefers round numbers). US$1.40 became US$1.45, then US$1.50, then US$1.55, and now US$1.60. Yet, weirdly, the euro-area economy hasn't imploded (yet). In fact, yesterday's IFO survey unexpectedly strengthened again, disappointing those who
have been predicting a crash every month for the past six months. Equally distressing for some, French business-confidence also rose, returning to previous cyclical highs. This wasn't supposed to happen. So why is the strong euro apparently having so little impact on the European economy?
Obviously, we shouldn't exaggerate the importance of these two surveys. Other indicators,notably the PMIs, which have historically been be\tter correlated with GDP growth, suggest the economy has slowed more sharply. But equally, some caution is warranted in interpreting these data. The weakness in financial markets seems to be distorting the PMIs,
with the services survey deteriorating sharply every time equities have a bad month (particularly if the weakness occurs at the end of the month, when many of the responses are collected). So while the IFO/INSEE surveys are probably overstating growth, the PMIs might be understating it. As always, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle: the
euro-area economy has slowed, but not dramatically. This is still remarkable given the US economy is probably now in recession (there, I've finally said it) and the euro continues to reach new highs. The euro isn't killing the economy because, in real trade-weighted terms, it isn't hugely
overvalued. The dollar's broad-based decline has limited its impact on the euro's TWI. The ECB prefers to focus on this broad measure of the currency, rather than simple bilateral exchange rates. Yet, there are important differences within the euro area because costs and
prices have diverged sharply in recent years. German companies have kept inflation low and, as a result, their real exchange rate is probably still a little undervalued. In this context, the booming IFO isn't so surprising. Germany is also benefiting from its favourable export
composition; it exports higher value-added goods to rapidly growing markets (notably Asia and eastern Europe). In contrast, Italy, Ireland and Spain have significantly overvalued real exchange rates and are struggling. France is also an interesting case; despite the complaints from politicians, the economy's real exchange rate is probably close to fair value.
It seems people just don't want to buy French-made goods anymore.
The ECB can do nothing to prevent these dynamics within the euro area. In fact, it probably feels it can do little about the strong euro per se. The ECB does not target the exchange rate. It has one target (inflation) and one instrument (interest rates). Given the recent surge in inflation and the likelihood inflation stays above its objective in 2009, some ECB members
(coincidently, those with a German accent) probably feel the rising euro is helpful. It should limit the pass-through from rapidly rising commodity prices. Of course, if the euro increases far enough to lower the ECB's inflation forecast sufficiently, then rate cuts would then become an option. But we'll need to watch the economic data, not the euro-dollar rate, to judge this point. Is currency intervention possible? If the euro rises rapidly, Mr Trichet et al will probably resort to verbal intervention. But they are unlikely to go beyond that. Europe has an embarrassing history of failed currency interventions and given the lack of support
from the Americans, they are unlikely to attempt such action again.

[peat]

evil stop hunt last night before the down move....

[Steve]

evil stop hunt last night before the down move....

Hope that you are not suggesting that it was the market, or even your FX broker?! ;)

Do you think that the top is locked in for now? I'm thinking so, but that could give it the kiss of death and go higher to prove me wrong!

[peat]

Just saying that a fair few shorts would have been gobbled. Not mine tho. I've been range trading both directions but had closed for the night.
I personally still give credence to Max's notion of 1.7 but it doesnt fit easily with EW counts.
But given its gone up 1200 pips in a couple of months its reasonable to assume a decent sized correction.

Ichimoku cloud support is way down at 1.5 but being a lagging average thats climbing rapidly day by day and the cloud size expands a lot during mid April spreading between 1.52 and 1.55. So if it goes below those levels it will probably be attracted back to them even if only as resistance.

[GeorgeW]

European Banks Move To Ease Money Mkts
Leading European central banks again swooped into money markets to ease liquidity fears as banks wrapped up their first-quarter accounts.

Interest rates in euro-zone money market, in which banks lend to each other for short-term financing needs, have shot up as banks scrambled for funds to balance their books.

The European Central early Monday pumped extra funds into the banking system, allocating EUR15 billion in one-day funds via a liquidity-providing quick tender. In response, Euro-zone interbank overnight rates eased back to 4.04%-4.19%.

[Bilo]

You may have seen this but reported in Bloomberg tonight:

``The euro is poised to fall significantly,'' said Akira Takei (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Akira%0ATakei&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who helps oversee the equivalent of $32.9 billion as general manager of international fixed-income investment at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``A slowdown in the U.S. will eventually filter through to Europe. The ECB will be forced to cut.''
Inflation, while ``alarmingly high,'' will slow toward year-end, ECB Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said in comments to reporters today in Dornbirn, Austria.
Traders raised bets the bank will cut its benchmark interest rate this year, with the implied yield on the December Euribor contract falling 2 basis points to 4.15 percent. The ECB left its benchmark interest rate on hold at a six-year high of 4 percent last month.

The euro may fall to $1.5341 by the end of next week provided it weakens below $1.5599, said Kengo Suzuki (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kengo+Suzuki&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co., citing technical charts.

`Double Top'
The first level of so-called support at $1.5599 represents the common European currency's average price for the past 20 days, Tokyo-based Suzuki said. The second support level at $1.5341 is the neckline of a pattern known as a double top, which forms when a currency makes two successive peaks of about the same height.

[arco]

Bilo

If you refer to my chart in post 619 (21/3) the "double top"
that Mizuho mentions is the reversal point of wave 2 in the
downleg, so this all bodes well for the scenario as per the chart.

rgds - arco

[Steve]

Seems to have turned back up following fridays announcements.

Currently have no position as waiting to see which way it contunues after the data has been digested...

[Bilo]

Seems to have turned back up following fridays announcements.

Currently have no position as waiting to see which way it contunues after the data has been digested...

Yes. I was was shorting it until the US labour data came through and it jumped eliminating most of my gains. I think the EUR/USD still has a small chance of completing the double top. If it does my gut feel was that the positive sentiment to the USD would signal the turning of the world away from talking themselves into a more significant recession. Until then we will keep oscillating.

[peat]

Bilo
Hasnt Eur already done a double top eg Mar 14 and Mar 28 ?

Right now I am thinking (c) of c which if thats correct would mean a doozy down. Eg Mar 14 - Mar 21 was 'a'. Mar 21 to Mar 28 was 'b' Since then c with April 3rd and 4th = (b) and today onwards will will be (c) of c. Breaking the Apr 3rd low at 1.55 is the first confirmation Breaking the Apr 4th high of 1.5744 will negate.

NB I am not very good at EW and my User description IS 'Leg End' ;) but this is what I'm thinking right now.

If anyone (hi Paul!!) wants to correct my EW nomenclature please do so.


Yeh of course it was Mar 17th and Mar 31st for the tops not the 14th or the 28th (thks Arco) . and similar chgs in the rest of the post.
Pics are of course better for describing these things.

[roddy]

Hi Peat

Agree with your comments Peat i am no expert on EW but I
have been watching price action of late and it seems to me maybe EURO has run out of momentum somewhat especially after nfp last Friday which was a disastrous figure but not much happened price wise so even tho the uptrend is still intact at present the probability of a correction is more likely before it moves up again fwiw

cheers roddy

[arco]

Hi Peat/Roddy

I'm thinking 17/03 could be the '5', and 24/3 could be '(a or 1), and 31/3 could be (b or 2). Therefore the target could be (c) and perhaps 1.4950 ish

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

hi guys

its not very clear the action in the euro at the moment

i was looking for a big move down but if that was a wave 1 it looks iffy with such a deep wave 2 retracement , i reckon when it goes past 78.6 its probably not a second wave of an impulse .
the hourly also discounts this as wave 1 down is not a nice 5 wave impulse its a choppy corrective affair

so i have posted 2 possibilities
bearish is a flat or a triangle but not the big wave down i was hoping for

bullish , trendline still intact from feb (green line ) also nice hammer which could act as nice stop loss for a run higher 15511

i get where your coming from roddy as nfp did not precipitate a reactionthat it would have normally done , but still no reason to change opinion at moment in my o

[peat]

not at all looking like a strong wave down either last night OR certainly not in the last hour. :mad:

[Steve]

Not convinced by this afternoons jump, so are short EURUSD.

That will make it go higher for sure... ;)

[dumbass]

maybe an ascending triangle

5 waves labelled A B C D E

three wave internal counts

e may under or overshoot trendline

action currently tested 159 again and looks like its been rejected

should break to upside have buy in above resistance line but would ideally look for entry as

tests lower trendline ( wave E ) completion

[roddy]

Hi Db

yes i see ascending traingle,
this morning 4.30 am just happened to wake up that time went long up about 70 odd pip at present,looking like its only a matter of time 59 will be broken,even tho a few cracks are appearing in EURO,fundamentals

FWIW regarding GBP i think Scott Carney trades the D leg after its past the B point,BUT i havent got his book so dont know whether its coupled with some other set up criteria!

cheers
off to bed on auto pilot
roddy

[peat]

whereas I've been short as posted and holding against all the adversity. but stops were at 1.5910. :mad: taken and dropped. I sense a joker up in the sky.

[roddy]

Hi PEAT

i was stopped on long trade for an 80 pip loss but made up for it on short GBP,so about break even,however over the last week i have been carrying 80 pip wide stops and have been stopped out twice trying to go long the EURO,

cheers
roddy

[Steve]

If the EURUSD doesn't make a significant break upwards this time around, then the double-top becomes a triple-top.

If this becomes the reality, then it must surely be time for a significant drop? Maybe back below 1.5000?

[dumbass]

preferred count after much study

regular flat correction in progress with a minimum target of 15350 but more likely to head

towards sub 149

HOWEVER alternate count respects ascending triangle for final break out to 160 +

as allways time will tell , maybe worth getting on the saddle

[Craig3215]

Looks like a good spot to short here at 5775 coming back to test the previous uptrendline support

[Steve]

It had also tested 1.5660 and failed to break downwards thru that...

[peat]

I am starting to see the ascending triangle more now. so if thats the case a clean break of 1.59 would mean about 500 pips up to target 1.64

[arco]

Hi Peat

There seems to be an EW impulse on the lower time frames (30m/1hr) starting from the low at 1.5671 to the high at 1.5884. Now the current correction appears to be in 3 waves down to 38.2, but that may just be the 'A' leg not the whole move. (I can only count 3 waves on the B? so far). Should that be the correct wave count there may be a move down to circa 5760/5780 creating a Gartley?

Currently watching the 30 min to take advantage of a signal in either/both direction/s

Daily chart. Triple tops have a habit of failing and on a break the plot may form a mini BF (daily chart) with a max projection circa 6150-6250.

arco

[arco]

Morning All

As mentioned yesterday...................

"there may be a move down to circa 5760/5780 creating a Gartley?"

Overnight spike took the price down to 5752 with the current action
testing the 'B' pivot of the potential Gartley.

No position on Euro at the moment - still waiting.
(I had more confidence in Cable last night with a short from 9718)

rgds - arco

[arco]

:) Boy.....that was a super Gartley (circa 170 pips so far).......
.......the amazing flying Euro.

If you missed the wagon and dont mind going against the flow,
there night be a few pips south on a retrace from the PTZ
...........(an exercise in nerve control for late night scalpers)

GTA - arco

[peat]

whereas I'm now thinking this means 1.63 tho for that target really should wait for the daily close. and may also be expected to test (below 1,59) again.

[arco]

In the face of danger the intrepid butterfly scalper stalked his prey......;)

[dumbass]

hmmm sceptical of this breakout

nice to blowout stops and then move lower

short from 159 50

i still think this is pretty close to b wave top

[GeorgeW]

Soros Says Euro Cannot Replace Dollar
The euro cannot replace the U.S. dollar as the world's anchor currency, billionaire financier George Soros said Thursday, warning investors are instead fleeing currencies to put their money into real assets.

"I don't think that the euro can replace the dollar and a system with two major reserve currencies? Not a stable system," he told a Brussels event organized by the Centre for European Policy Studies think tank.

The U.S. dollar's reign as the "unquestionable reserve currency of globalization" allowed the U.S. to run up a "chronic" current account deficit that could have continued indefinitely if rising household debt and a slipping housing market hadn't triggered the current financial crisis, he said.

"What we have now is a period of instability and heightened uncertainty," he said, refusing to "predict the unpredictable" and say when the economy might hit calmer waters again.

[Steve]

Arco, Peat & DA, how does the weekly close tie in with your respective theories?

[dumbass]

hi steve

i reckon its still an even contest at the moment

bears got a failed rally from 159+

bulls got a strong bounce of lower triangle border 157

i think 159 test which should happen early this week is key , break through and will set a new high 16050 looks interesting

failure may indicate tops in

my feeling is still bearish but could set a new high and if it did i would take opportunity to take a big short

the rally feels like its fading the news out of US is very ugly yet not firing euro higher

i feel some average euro data may be the catalyst

im short from 15950 stops to breakeven but really just feeling out for confirmation

[dumbass]

chart of recent action

[Bilo]

In the face of danger the intrepid butterfly scalper stalked his prey......;)

ARCO, Please explain why you wouldn't have taken your butterfly profit at 1.5950?

Please just say that you were a bit slow/had it on remote control, and before you knew what was happening it had raced up to 1.5970.

This knowing when to take profits is still an area where I could do better. I frequently end up giving plenty back to the market.

[arco]

Hi Bilo

My apologies for any confusion.

The post was regarding the new 'Butterfly' formed at the completion of the Gartley target - (light coloured PTZ/PRZ box area in red circle). Please refer to my previous post #652 where I said "there might be a few pips south on a retrace from the PTZ"

My chart was showing the new short order at 1.5923 (I had just entered the position - see profit bar at bottom showing +1). A profit had already been taken on the long Gartley mentioned earlier (at Fib 1.618) and this was a new trade based on the new Butterfly shown below on the amended chart

rgds - arco

[Steve]

Short it is... :)

[dumbass]

bearish engulfing on dailies suggesting risk limit is 16018 which does appear to be a

significant top

will attempt to build low risk short entry against this risk limit

[Steve]

Nice drop to 1.5660 as expected. Now, will it continue downwards or will it re-trace back up?

[Dr_Who]

Is this a "dead cat" US dollar bounce?

[dumbass]

The Coca-Cola Co

'ITS THE REAL THING'

[Steve]

Closed my short EURUSD a tad early and missed out on that last dip down to 1.5550 but it did retrace back above my exit by closing at 1.5630

Still, I'm more than happy with the profit that has been locked in. :)

[peat]

sold at 1.5607 S/L 1.5650
IPO (initial profit objective) 1.5536

[roddy]

Hi Peat,

nice gartley there Peat,particularly well done for that hour of the morning!

cheers
roddy

[peat]

it was a good try Roddy getting awfully close to hitting target , I think it was +62 at one stage , but now closed at only +15 .

[peat]

hi guys enjoying your posts.

I'm having another go with shorting the Eur @ 1.5717 stop 1.5849 target 1.5510.
another totally perfect gartley here displayed on the hourly.

[Bilo]

hi guys enjoying your posts.

I'm having another go with shorting the Eur @ 1.5717 stop 1.5849 target 1.5510.
another totally perfect gartley here displayed on the hourly.

Sorry Peat but I struggled to understand this trade. I thought EUR/USD was good for at least 1.580 and on fundamentals with the US holding interest rates and the EU bullish about raising them, it could go higher....

[peat]

The logic is in the pattern Bilo. Also there is Divergence on the RSI Hourly. I tend not to believe the fundamentals much and just go with the shapes.

But yeh the trade could go wrong. Perhaps I should've waited for some confirmation that this was a turning point - not really any of that yet to be sure.

[AMR]

It seems to have taken a big tumble last night. This is why I don't trade the news :D:eek:. In fact it was sounding like the US-German trade dispute right before the crash of 87/

[Steve]

It seems to have taken a big tumble last night. This is why I don't trade the news :D:eek:. In fact it was sounding like the US-German trade dispute right before the crash of 87/

I was short EURUSD after the spike earlier in the week. My guess was that the market would drop if there was a EUR rate hike and would drop more if there was not...

[peat]

so my bearish gartley post 671 failed pretty well. with price cutting through X by nearly 100 pips taking out -145 stop. so I interpreted this as a bullish signal. The 300 pip correction did come tho and I started buying this time on the 4th but it was catching falling knives and resulted in 2 -30's. Showed more patience till the 9th by which time a small bullish gartley hinted at some change in direction and since then had 4 overnight +90s and a -18.

[Bilo]

so my bearish gartley post 671 failed pretty well. with price cutting through X by nearly 100 pips taking out -145 stop. so I interpreted this as a bullish signal. The 300 pip correction did come tho and I started buying this time on the 4th but it was catching falling knives and resulted in 2 -30's. Showed more patience till the 9th by which time a small bullish gartley hinted at some change in direction and since then had 4 overnight +90s and a -18.

There has been heaps of articles suggesting that the USD is toast again following panic about freddie mac and fannie mae and the 2nd failed bank picked up by the fed. Everyone had been picking the Euro to reach a new high v USD. Stunning about turn tho - equally stunning affect on the POO but that had an even more nasty correction.

[roddy]

Hi Peat,

those are some great gains there peat,let me know when you start selling signals and I ll be your first customer!

roddy

[peat]

took 100 again tonite on a double sized trade... have closed now.

silver and gold confirming the demise of the USD.

[dumbass]

hmm morning peat

what a night had a few trade set ups firing all over the place

made a bag on short usd jpy , good short on eur chf and had a nibble on eur usd long through 160 but that got stopped

i will post a few charts

my feeling at the moment is 160 is now weakened and will not hold looking at 163 + on eur

usd jpy broke some serious channels so have been waiting for this one to go lower

i reckon its the equities driving things at the moment , i have big shorts on for a while on dow now but starting to get a little nervous and may cover
having to get up through night to assess action which i hate doing but its sooo volatile
really looked like a massive hammer was going to print but saved by another wave of selling

anyway all good

[roddy]

Hi Peat/DB

yeah not quite as sharp as you Peat but managed 70 pips between Euro and kiwi
last nite

roddy

[peat]

Have been a bit patient but thought the double doji and then the triangle breakout (well I went a bit early actually) were sufficient enticement for another long - almost got stopped with a -30 pip set, and have now moved that to break even - currently +60.

[dumbass]

this might be a little help peat for a what is shaping up to be a bullish gartley

a = C at 157 risk at 156 for a run at 163

[peat]

yeh that was always a bit of a b wave I guess and c wave violence hit hard and fast .... oh well nothing lost with stop at b/e

[Bilo]

da
I looked a that one but was not convinced it would go back up but instead might continue down to continue the aftermath (gartley?) of a rough major butterfly on the 3 monthly...the RSI was down sharply...

[dumbass]

hi bilo , look its a possibility however c waves are sharp moves but in the end a correction to main trend

if the gartley prints at around 1.57 then im wrong at 1.56, but if correct minimum requirement is a run at 16040 and im picking higher 1.63.

so risk a 100 for 350 or even 600 which is a good risk reward

it will depend a lot on how action looks heading into 157 before you can make this trade though

[dumbass]

hi peat , just checking the daily metastock

eur usd has posted a bearish engulfing and broke a trendline

possible this is the start of a bigger move lower

i have broken a rule and sold against trend more as a hedge to ride down to 157
will probably end in tears

[peat]

hey da

been working the dayjob tonite so only watching seems like you've got some down pips at this stage tho....

the long term holding of AG is getting hammered so thats enough pain for me atm. sold some at 19 but still it affects the a/c balance quite badly when it falls this much.

i'll be looking for some confirmation before longing Eur now....

[dumbass]

sorry to hear about ag , eur usd nearly at target , just waiting for final leg lower to 15710


http://i36.tinypic.com/2iablo6.gif

[peat]

Holding AG long term is my response to not being that great a short term trader DA.

But of the Euro, has it turned again. I think so , long again from 1.57.

[dumbass]

But of the Euro, has it turned again. I think so , long again from 1.57.

spot on peat

im now testing my dollar bull theory short from 157 60 tight stop at 158

[peat]

you say I'm spot on but you're short :confused: haha

If I was trading for a living I would be looking to take profits more frequently there have been more pips on offer than I've collected.
but re going long I'm not seeing anything contradicting me yet , thoI am mindful that at some stage we could be forming a bearish pattern again.

[dumbass]

Look, I was just congratulating you for bagging 70 pips when you’re completely wrong

seriously i'm still looking at a c wave completing soon 157 90 looks like a possible but i'm banking on it not getting that far.
i,ve flipped on this one and still reckon up move is corrective but time will tell

[peat]

out on the break of the hourly trendline.

[roddy]

Hi All,

good to see you back Arco

[arco]

Thanks Roddy

I also spotted that BF setup and scalped 20 pips earlier
off the 30 min chart.

rgds - arco

[arco]

.........

Euro building up nicely for a possible tack towards +/- 1.5800
IMO after completing the current 3 waves down on smaller time
frames to perhaps 5550 ish - (or may be spiky later).

Not quite up to speed yet but its NFP later today
so prepare for a hairy ride.........larger than normal stops :rolleyes:

[dumbass]

bullish gartley on smaller time frame may provide an good low risk entry arco

long 15550 sl 15520 target 158

[dumbass]

here's my bigger picture

wave c of correction of 5 waves down hopefully heading 157 to 158

my only concern is that quite a few traders are talking about this set up

so... taking a cautious approach and really waiting to go short at higher level

[peat]

I was lookin at the ichimoku on the Euro$ daily last night and noticed that it would be pretty easy for it to get back to 1.5750/5800 levels - thats where the cloud goes anyway.

[arco]

>>>>>>>>

Action played out as expected with a move into the 5550 area and a spike beyond around NFP.

Left an order in to buy @ 1.5530 which got triggered overnight on
a down spike......+33

Await next week with interest

Good weekend all

[arco]

>>>>>>>>>

My target of 5620 was reached but unfortunately not
before my stop got hit overnight at 5565

Result +35

arco

[dumbass]

pretty volatile for a NZ open

i thought id overcooked it with a short from 150 but looks like momentum is still there

must be a counter rally coming but i still fancy lower

[arco]

Morning All

Out of everything at the moment.......some big falls could create a few bounces.

Dollar Gain Signals Pain as Rally Prompts Exit From Bull Trade
By Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Just because the dollar posted its biggest gain against the Euro in almost eight years doesn't mean the U.S. currency won't continue to be plagued by the nation's slowing economy, widening budget and trade deficits and negative inflation-adjusted interest rates.
The 4 percent surge against the single European currency this month was enough to prompt Bank of America Corp. to tell its customers to exit trades betting on more gains. Morgan Stanley still forecasts the greenback will approach a record low by October as the U.S. housing slump and credit-market losses keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year.
Barclays Plc in London and New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co. said trading patterns suggest the dollar's 5.1 percent gain in the past three weeks measured by an index of six major trading partners can't be sustained.
That's mostly because there's no indication the U.S. will return to the late 1990s annualized gross domestic product growth of 4.23 percent with inflation running at no more than 3.3 percent. Since September, 2000, the dollar has declined more than 44 percent as inflation accelerated to an annual 5 percent today, growth slowed to 1.9 percent and U.S. interest rates provide no cushion for holding U.S. assets.
``I would not chase the dollar's strength versus the euro as the pair has moved beyond interest-rate support,'' said Sophia Drossos (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Sophia+Drossos&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a strategist in New York at Morgan Stanley, who also recommended closing out bets on the dollar versus the currencies of Malaysia and Singapore. ``The dollar is not out of the woods. It will take the market a while to come around to our point of view.''
Unsustainable Recovery
The dollar strengthened to $1.5005 to the euro last week from $1.5564 on Aug. 1, the biggest weekly increase on a percentage basis since January 2005. It surged 2.08 percent on Aug. 8, touching $1.4998, the most since Sept. 6, 2000, and the second largest rally since the euro was introduced in 1999.
Those gains sent the dollar above the $1.51 per euro yearend mean target of 39 analysts in a survey by Bloomberg. By the end of 2009, the dollar will likely strengthen to $1.40 per euro, based on the estimates. It gained 6.4 percent since hitting a record low of $1.6038 on July 15.
In addition to the gains against the euro, the dollar also appreciated 2.3 percent versus the yen to 110.18, the most in eight weeks. The euro lost 1.29 percent against the Japanese currency to 165.38, the biggest drop in 13 weeks.
U.S. economic data suggest that a sustained recovery isn't imminent, said Robert Sinche (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Robert+Sinche&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), head of global currency strategy at Bank of America in New York. Interest-rate swaps indicate the currency should trade at about $1.54 per euro, said Sinche, who still forecasts that the dollar will strengthen to $1.45 per euro by the second half of next year.
Foreclosures, Deficits
The number of U.S. home foreclosure (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FORLTOTL%3AIND) filings more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data. Government reports this week may show retail sales fell 0.1 percent in July, the first decrease since February, and the U.S. trade deficit (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USTBTOT%3AIND) widened in June to $62 billion from $59.8 billion.
The U.S. budget deficit (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDDSSD%3AIND), which totaled $163 billion for 2007, is forecast by the administration of President George W. Bush (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=George+W.%0ABush&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) to widen to a record $482 billion for 2009.
Morgan Stanley predicts the dollar will weaken to $1.60 by October, because the faltering U.S. economy means the Fed is unlikely to raise rates (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FDTR%3AIND) anytime soon, Drossos said. That means investors will continue to suffer inflation-adjusted returns that are negative based on the current annual consumer price index of 5 percent and Treasury securities yielding between 1.695 percent for three-month bills and 4.53 percent for 30-year bonds.
`Particularly Weak'
Rather then a vote of confidence in the outlook for the U.S. economy, the euro's tumble on Aug. 8 was triggered by traders paring bets the European Central Bank will lift borrowing costs after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jean-Claude+Trichet&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said economic growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter. Trichet spoke after the central bank left the main refinancing rate at 4.25 percent.
Gross domestic product growth in the euro region is expected to slow to 1.7 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2009, from 2.68 percent in 2007, according the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5 percent before rebounding to 1.8 percent next year, another survey showed.
``The outlook is looking certainly brighter for the dollar,'' said Nick Bennenbroek (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Nick+Bennenbroek&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), head of currency strategy in New York at Wells Fargo & Co. ``The most significant factor is that there are now much clearer signs that U.S. economic weakness has spread to global economic weakness.''
`Overshoot Territory'
Wells Fargo forecasts the dollar strengthening to 1.48 per euro by the end of next year.
David Woo (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=David+Woo&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), head of currency strategy in London at Barclays, disagrees. ``The euro-dollar market is in an overshoot territory,'' he said. Barclays, the world's third largest currency trader, according to an annual survey by Euromoney magazine, expects the dollar to weaken to $1.57 per euro by year-end.
Dollar bears point to the Fed's decision on Aug. 5 to leave its target rate for overnight loans between banks at 2 percent for a second straight policy meeting. Policy makers said ``downside risks'' to growth remain, while inflation is a ``significant concern.''
Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 40 percent chance the Fed will raise its target rate at least a quarter- percentage point by year-end and a 90 percent probability of higher borrowing costs by the end of March.
`Balance of Risks'
``We still see the balance of risks to the upside for euro- dollar given considerable headwinds facing the dollar and unrealistic pricing for Fed hikes,'' strategists led by Ray Farris (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ray%0AFarris&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) at Credit Suisse Group in London wrote in a research note at the end of last week. The dollar may decline to $1.61 per euro by the end of next month and to $1.64 by year-end, they said, the most bearish forecast in the Bloomberg survey.
Traders who look at charts of price patterns say technical indicators suggest the dollar's rally may have been exaggerated.
Losses accelerated Aug. 8 when the euro dropped below $1.53 and broke the 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2006. Currencies typically revert toward their mean price after breaking through averages unless new ranges are established.
Trading envelopes, which measure how far from the mean a price has strayed, show the euro's decline is double the typical changes versus the dollar in the past 20 days, suggesting that the dollar is either establishing a new level or will trade closer to the average price.
`Bit Too Fast'
The 14-day relative strength index fell to 22.31, the lowest since the euro's debut. A relative strength index level below 30 suggests a currency's decline is extreme and a reversal may be imminent.
``We are looking for the euro-dollar to move down over the year, but feel that the current move is a bit too fast,'' said Emma Lawson (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Emma+Lawson&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a currency strategist in London at Merrill Lynch, which still expects the dollar to rise to $1.48 per euro by January. ``The dollar has started from a position of being undervalued while a lot of these currencies are overvalued.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ye+Xie&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in New York at Yxie6@bloomberg.net; Anchalee Worrachate (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Anchalee+Worrachate&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net.



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a9FT.fPxbjF0&refer=currency

[arco]

Euro looks pretty oversold IMO and old resistance in the current area could provide some support for a reversal.

Watching for wave confirmation.

[AMR]

To me it looks like support has become resistance and prices have bounced off? Short at 1.4941 sl 1.4985

[arco]

>>>>>>>>

After 4 weeks of tracking south I guess there's always an element of 'reversal denial' and nobody is too keen to step in front of a freight train. ;)

[dumbass]

tried a long there arco but stopped out for a few

im thinking one final move lower , daily fx got this down as a 4 before a final move down to

complete.

[AMR]

Today seems to be an inside day indicating indecision, has support finally kicked in?

[miner]

It's running mate eur/jpy may be turning north around 162.50,hourly and 15min charts,trying anyway.

Cheers
Miner

[arco]

Hi Miner

Good to see you back on the job :D

Yes, Euro's trying to make a turn, and as DB mentioned it may be
printing a wave 4.

1 hour and 4 hour made a higher low, so lets
see if that opens the way for more northward movement

Rgds - arco

[arco]

Tonight Eurozone CPI around 9.00 pm

.........and tomorrow we have US Core CPI @ 12.30 pm which is an inflation indicator and usually makes Euro jump...........but which way :rolleyes:

News traders can have a go.........either way

[arco]

Northbound turn not confirmed yet....awaiting the 12.30 news with interest.

From Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied to an almost six-month high against the euro on Thursday amid growing concern over euro zone economic weakness and accelerating inflation in the United States.
Traders sold the euro after reports showed contraction in the euro zone's economy in the second quarter. The euro zone single currency accelerated its losses and fell below $1.48 after it broke through key technical levels, analysts said.
Government data showed U.S. consumer prices rose at twice the rate expected in July. Analysts said higher prices in the short term may help boost the case for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although they warned that over time, inflation would hurt the economy.
"What you have is a clear change in scenario, and a very rapid one," said Joseph Trevisani, market analyst at FX Solutions in Saddle River, New Jersey, adding:
"One leads to perhaps a higher chance of a rate cut (in the euro zone), and the other leads to perhaps a higher chance of an American rate hike at some point," he added. "The scenario is just starting to diverge both sides to the benefit of the dollar."
In late afternoon trading in New York, the euro was 0.8 percent lower at $1.4807, after falling as low as $1.4779, the lowest since late February, according to Reuters data. The European currency is now more than 10 cents below a record high of $1.6038 struck in July.
The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose for a 10th consecutive session to hit a six-month high of 76.823. It was last 0.5 percent higher at 76.652.


Full article


http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN1457798620080814?rpc=401&&pageNumber=2

[AMR]

Annoying. Stop got cleaned out before the move downwards. Ugh!

[miner]

Long with a supa tight stop on this one to,probably toast if it doesn't go this hour.

Cheers
miner

[arco]

9.pm tonight

Might give a jolt to the market. (For scalpers and direction seekers).

Possible BF on H1.

GTA - arco

[arco]

Post #716. Possible BF on H1.They don't get much more perfect than that. Could be a little bit
more steam left yet.

Nice result +150 so far.

arco

[Bilo]

They don't get much more perfect than that. Could be a little bit
more steam left yet.

Nice result +150 so far.

arco

Arco I thought that this one might break south and continue the longer term trend?

[arco]

Hello Bilo

Possibly in the medium/longer term, but with such a large fall there always comes a retracement which often tests old supports for change of polarity. So we need to pay attention to the signals that appear and act accordingly.

I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30, so we'll see what transpires after that

rgds - arco

[Bilo]

Hello Bilo

Possibly in the medium/longer term, but with such a large fall there always comes a retracement which often tests old supports for change of polarity. So we need to pay attention to the signals that appear and act accordingly.

I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30, so we'll see what transpires after that

rgds - arco

Well 4815-30 came and went. Next stop 1.50? But will what that does to the price of oil cause too much hurt?

[arco]

Hello Bilo

I was pretty close on the resistance area mentioned - quote "I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30"

The action went to a high of 1.4832 and then dropped 91 pipsbefore moving higher.

I would expect to see a retrace at this point.

rgds - arco

[Bilo]

Hello Bilo

I was pretty close on the resistance area mentioned - quote "I'm expecting some resistance around 4815-30"

The action went to a high of 1.4832 and then dropped 91 pipsbefore moving higher.

I would expect to see a retrace at this point.

rgds - arco


Yeah, it was a good call. Just about time for a Stella..

[dumbass]

one to look out for market open

long eur usd entry at stop bid 148 target 149 79 and 151 50

stop loss 147 35 or a bit more generous 146 65

top h1 and then h10

[arco]

Hi DB

Morning Star is a powerful pattern - normally. But today the trigger happy probably got burnt. You had a very logical entry, so trust you didn't get spiked in.

I've had most of the day off, so just returned to see how the land lies.

No positions so far this week.....so see what can be made of the patterns.



arco

[dumbass]

hi arco , it looked pretty good but wasn't to be .

starting to think new low may be on the cards or at least a test of previous low

so looking for a short

what you up to ?

[dumbass]

looks like 4th wave top may be in at 14910

now got a clear 5 waves down , so will enter on retracement to 14870 area for

a shot at 146 30 low

[arco]

Hi DB

Haven't found anything I like so far......still trying to get a feel for
the new week......

rgds - arco

[peat]

elliot wave are saying exactly the same thing DA. do they have a subscription with you :p

[dumbass]

ha ha that'll be the day

hey peat i tried to get into the ewi site but have given up

any chance of a post on eur usd

[arco]

.

There could be some support coming in from the consolidation area (triangle), so is it feasible there could be a little bounce from here.

Waiting in the wings until its more clear

.

[peat]

DA


[Consolidation then lower]
Key Level: 1.4631 & 1.4910


Continue to look for a consolidative pause to last a little longer above 1.4697 (and possibly see a move back toward 1.4778). However, with an impulsive (five wave) downward movement now arguably showing from a potential fourth wave high at 1.4910, a retest of the recent 1.4631 low should be expected once the present consolidation is over. Only an impulsive return back up through 1.4829 and then on toward 1.4910 would suggest that a broader more complex fourth wave correction was still in progress. J Hunter

[arco]

.

Interesting to see the question mark after (iv)........a little uncertainty there from the 'experts'

1 hr chart has a potential continuation pattern.....maybe the plot on the chart could be the way ahead.

Still waiting.................

.

[peat]

i think even they accept that you cant always plot the count until the next wave declares itself. they offer alternative counts occasionally. I've grabbed 40 from 1.4720 after that spike down to 1.47 (the .78 retracement point) got knocked back.

I've saved the EW weekly and monthly views for all the pairs to disk so will post those if people would like. can do the intradays as below if you want too.

[arco]

I've saved the EW weekly and monthly views for all the pairs to disk so will post those if people would like. can do the intradays as below if you want too.

Sounds like a good idea Peat.
I notice the cost per month for both modules (Intraday Forecasts + Daily, Weekly & Monthly Forecasts) is $494

arco

[arco]

Could be a few wild swings until the action finds a direction.

Ifo says German export climate hits 15-yr low-report
BERLIN, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The outlook for German exports has deteriorated to its worst level in over 15 years, according to an index compiled by the Munich-based Ifo economic research institute for German magazine WirtschaftsWoche.

'The negative picture is heavily influenced by the poor mood among consumers and firms among Germany's European trading partners,' Ifo said, according to the magazine on Sunday.

Ifo's export climate indicator for Germany, the world's biggest exporter of goods, fell by 0.08 points to minus 1.24 points, the lowest reading since May 1993, the report said.

Behind the bleak outlook was the fact that France, Italy and Spain were teetering on the brink of recession, it added. Some two thirds of exports from Europe's largest economy go to other countries within the 27-nation European Union.

After growing 1.3 percent in the first quarter, German gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.5 percent in the April-June period, and a number of leading economists have said the economy could contract again in the third quarter.

Last week, Ifo said expectations for the global economy were now at their lowest level in nearly 18 years.

(Writing by Dave Graham; editing by Elaine Hardcastle) Keywords: GERMANY EXPORT/

tf.TFN-Europe_newsdesk@thomson.com

[dumbass]

looks like 4th wave top may be in at 14910

now got a clear 5 waves down , so will enter on retracement to 14870 area for

a shot at 146 30 low

target hit for 240 + pips , im out now, its just a bit too scary at the moment

[arco]

.

Nice trade DB.......couldn't quite match that figure.

http://www.clipartof.com/images/thumbnail/1233.gif

[dumbass]

thanks arco , you got to give yourself a pat on the back as i have learnt alot from you

[peat]

Update For: August 8
Posted On: Fri, 08 Aug 2008 00:45:42 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.4888
Support: 1.4745, 1.4675, 1.4631, 1.4311
Resistance: 1.4895, 1.4950, 1.5080, 1.5170


The rally underway since late-2005 is nearly equal (near 1.6200) to the prior advance. Equality measurements are common and we're watching carefully for evidence of a reversal. While EUR$ has fallen it's not yet enough to signal a trend change.

NB This is Aug 8

[peat]

Update For: August 21
Posted On: Fri, 22 Aug 2008 04:08:17 GMT
EURUSD
Last Price: 1.4637
Support: 1.4615, 1.4570, 1.4440, 1.4311
Resistance: 1.4715, 1.4810, 1.4910, 1.4950

The decline from 1.6040 is stretched. At least a correction is due and could reach the 1.5170 to 1.5500 area. But we're showing a count that allows for more than a correction. The recent dive reached support in the area of the prior fourth wave and if it completed a flat correction EUR$ could attempt to push to a new all-time high.

[arco]

Hi Peat

Thanks for posting the graphs. Interesting that the monthly looks like a potential BF in the making.

Based on your findings do you feel their service is of value?

rgds - arco



NB. 1hr BF playing out nicely at the moment.

[peat]

So far... its hard to say with too much certainty, but I'll say this for them - they're putting out a lot of very timely charts and commentary on their intradays, so they are working hard. I think they have trouble being certain about direction a lot of the time.Thats kind of understandable. They often have an alternative count which means they're hedging themselves. Its an analysis, not always a tip sheet as such.
I need more time to analyse their work. I might comment again later.But I certainly wont be buying it at that price you quoted Arco. It could be valuable to someone though if not necessarily me.

[peat]

on intraday today EW are generally short USD , except against the Yen.

[arco]

Post #741




NB. 1hr BF playing out nicely at the moment.

The BF performed as expected reaching into the grey box with red line (1.4815) I placed on the chart.......high was 1.4811.
Bugger 4 pips out again.......must try harder ;).

I took a profit but I'm back in again this morning with another order

+41

[peat]

gartley AND three indians!
very tempting

[arco]

As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, Trichet has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinise his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues.

[peat]

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/forexfocus/fofo%209-9-08.gif

[AMR]

Very trendless actions over the last couple of days, am now waiting for a pullback to recent support at 1.39 before initiating a longer term position.

[arco]

.

.http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1105/euro-daily.gif.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?NewsletterEntryId=2376

[Bilo]

Is that a big butterfly I see shaping up on the 15min weekly chart?