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arco
25-03-2004, 10:09 AM
One of my daily systems has triggered a
short on the Eur.Usd (Weekly is already short).
I would prefer to see dual day confirmation,
however there is often a decent at least
a decent day trade available from this signal.

Please note. My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The system I have detailed above could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow this system be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk and that I cannot be held responsible for any losses incurred.

arco
01-04-2004, 11:02 AM
The short signal gave great day trading opps for
about 3 days with an overall spread of 150 pts.
Waiting now for a new signal - possibly long.

arco
14-05-2004, 09:34 AM
There is some stubborn support holding
EUR up and overnight action has created a double bottom
on that fib line. I went short overnight @1899 for a current
88 pips, and watching now to see if a break below will occur.
If that area gives, my next target would be 1577
Directional dates 19th and 26th May.

arco
16-05-2004, 10:39 AM
The support appears to be holding printing a Double bottom on the fib zone and historical uptrend line together with a bullish divergence on RSI. This may indicate the downward phase could be about over.

Short stopped Friday night for a profit of 18 pips.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/051404.gif

arco
18-05-2004, 12:48 PM
Nice move yesterday of around 180 pips for anyone who took the initiative.

arco
26-05-2004, 10:30 AM
Moving along nicely with a pip profit so far
of circa 220 pips for medium term holders,
and still more to come IMO.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/052505.gif

arco
28-07-2004, 11:54 AM
Updating chart after a nice north bound run with maximum of 694 pips.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/07272004.gif

arco
30-08-2004, 03:39 PM
Hello darkness my old friend,
I've come to talk with you again.


http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/08302004.gif

peat
04-09-2004, 07:39 PM
yeh the employment figures sparked the trend off to a big one yesterday huh.
managed to have a couple of deals open to ride it:D

trendy
08-09-2004, 12:45 PM
Hi. I was wondering if anyone knows where I can download EOD currency data for the NZD/USD for importing into Metastock. Currently use free data feeds from Yahoo for stock EOD data.

arco
08-09-2004, 06:21 PM
http://www.datahq.com.au/

http://www.infoscan.co.nz

skinny
17-11-2004, 09:32 PM
Hey arco whats your angle on the EUR.USD now? Last few days it seems 1.3 is a real barrier - hovering at 1.2992 on the screen now.

Certainly making the politicos here in Europe nervous and I see Snow is trying to stem the rise (article below) but I get the feeling if it breaks 1.3 it will keep on going...

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a0VRLepDSSMI&refer=home

skinny
17-11-2004, 10:50 PM
Lol, there she goes, now 1.304 and another record high against the USD. Another interpretation of Snow's comments attached

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aqk0HiQdvfjQ&refer=home

miner
17-11-2004, 11:54 PM
USD/JPY went south first.

Cheers
Miner

arco
18-11-2004, 08:01 AM
quote:Hey arco whats your angle on the EUR.USD now?

Skinny
There is a bearish divergence showing at the moment, so there
is the possibility of a retracement in the near future IMO.
I will try to post a chart later after I receive EOD data.
Arco

arco
18-11-2004, 11:08 AM
Chart as promised.

Could we be seeing the final moves to a
high followed by a multi-month fall?

Major resistance above around 1.3125/56

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/11172004.gif

skinny
18-11-2004, 07:25 PM
Cheers Arco, just trying to figure the best point to convert a bunch of euros into USDs - sent a bit through yesterday, holding off on most to see if it does get another leg up. I've read some currency strategists think 1.40 is on the cards, but from an economic point of view I'd say the longer term correction back you mention is the better 'fundamentally' justified scenario.

arco
19-11-2004, 08:17 AM
Nice down move of max 131 pips
creating a Dark Cloud Cover.

That move and candle breaks a fib support and is
bearish at least in the short term.

peat
26-11-2004, 09:31 PM
Its pretty much like predicting which way water will flow over the last few days. Hope you held off with some of those Euros , Skinny.

If the USD was a stock I'd sure hate to be the CFO about now.

So in your opinion over the next decade or so which currency if any is most likely to re-position itself as the possible successor to the mighty $$$? Its hard to imagine anything even the Euro competing at the moment but...
Gold's an option I spose.
hmmm
just moved over 100 pips in a couple of hours!
its getting more volatile[8]

skinny
26-11-2004, 11:31 PM
Hi Peat yeah I'm holding off for now. The ECB must be getting pretty nervous I reckon through - IMO we'll see some grumbling soon and I wouldn't rule out an intervention if it goes much above 1.35...

As for the reserve currency question I remain unconvinced there is any alternative to the USD, for the next decade anyway. It looks bad for the US now but we shouldn't forget the fact there have been larger falls in the USD in the past (early 80s). In addition, despite the current a/c and fiscal imbalances the US remains a more dynamic economy than Europe, whose growth potential is hamstrung by inflexible markets and a far worse ageing problem than the US.

snow
27-11-2004, 08:53 AM
Hey guys , do any of you think the NZ$ will head higher against US$ or will it bounce of long term resistance? , any moves higher carn`t be good for the economy.
snow

peat
29-11-2004, 06:07 PM
well i think its pretty obvious that the US has structural issues that will affect its currency , and that the general trend is for its currency to continue to weaken against most of its trading partners.
That said, there has been a large adjustment already and i think from here on it will be a more volatile path.

peat
29-11-2004, 09:42 PM
and in support of my previous question re reserve currency
From the news
" The fact the Eur/Usd trend is prompting some changes in investment decisions is likely to secure the longer term footing for Euro bulls, with Sth Korea's finmin today mulling altering the foreign ccy denominated bond issuances for 2005 to Euros from Dollars. This is significant and underscores the fears that foreign Authorities do not want to hold Dlr assets, with the change to Euros suggesting Sth Korea favour holding the Single ccy."

Baa_Baa
17-12-2004, 05:01 PM
.. however, within such a circumstance, who is brave enough to 'pick the winner'? when by definition the argument is saying there is emerging, or possibly will be, a replacement for the appalling badly managed global reserve currency, and it's still paper, backed only by the promises of ursury, hubris, avarice, greed and malice against the underpinning debtors (tax payers et al).

To think the Euro will win this battle is outstandingly naieve given it's dubious birth lineage and unashamed support for the continuation of fundamentally flawed fiat currencies --- none of which have EVER survived the test of time. None.

So --when-- the USD goes, who's prepared to bet on the Euro to replace it. Not I. There's seriously better choices; Gold, (& Silver) -in standard weights and measures-; or maybe the Dinar; or ... or ... or ...

It is inconceiveable that the USD can sustain this obscene exportation of monetary inflation for much longer. We observe now the battle lines being drawn for competitive currency debasement; the second fundamental of a generational super-cycle Gold bull.

JMHO of course, keen to hear yours

arco
28-02-2005, 10:58 AM
I have to admit it, I am in love - with Butterflies

Heres the result of a recent Butterfly on the Eur.Usd. (Max 865 pips).

Not bad for a little flutter!


http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/022505_378.gif

miner
28-02-2005, 12:23 PM
Well done arco,for trading it did a nice double bottom just before the last hourly,see if it can get through 273ish for a long or if it's ress and short off it,JPY and CHF are going the other way as usual.

Cheers
Miner

arco
14-03-2005, 11:43 AM
A bearish Gartley is in the wings but Medium/Long term systems
have not triggered their trailing stop yet.

Seed Wave targets have been met, so top pickers may be
looking btw 3428, 3489 and 3550 as possible reversal areas.


http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/031205.gif

arco
26-04-2005, 11:39 AM
Short entered on 21/4 at 3104......
Looking Ok and currently +115 pips.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/042605.gif

arco
26-04-2005, 02:08 PM
Interesting EW count using Neely's rules
(from the EW forum).

http://www.karoll.net/images/forex/18042005mte.GIF

Xerof
26-04-2005, 04:24 PM
Arco,

I thought I recognised the chart!!

This interpretation also appears on Fxstreet, posted by Karoll Inc on 18th April.
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/110690/content.asp?menu=technicalanalysis
I have monitored him in the past (when he posted daily on FXstreet) and found his recommendations wanting quite frankly.

There may be something in it though, see another EW post today which calls for a low around 1.2940ish then back up above 1.31ish in further sideways consolidation.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/103370/content.asp?menu=forecasts

With you on the sell EUR - shorted Friday at 1.3088, bght back last night at 1.2964 under one of the signal systems I follow.

Looking to resell early/mid 1.30's tonight if seen - own view.

regards

Xerof

arco
27-04-2005, 09:32 AM
Xerof

Still short EUR + 113.....not much movement overnight

I think the guy behind Karoll is Dimo
Dimov who at one time posted on the EW
Forum under the member name Dimo.

I have not followed his picks so cannot
comment on the quality of his work,
although I understand he uses Neely's rules
for wave counts from the book....
Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory.

arco

arco
29-04-2005, 08:03 AM
Euro has moved through a possible support level
at 2940 and is now showing +206 pips.

Expecting a little rest here around 2879 while
it tests the change of polarity circa 2940.

Xerof
29-04-2005, 08:14 AM
looking more and more like a reasonable hold for the medium term Arco - 1.2770 first target, then circa 1.22?

Hope I haven't put the commentators curse on it !

arco
29-04-2005, 12:19 PM
Xerof

There are multiple targets but IMO next main support
could be circa 2695. Minor support perhaps around 2817,
with Fibonacchi projections as low as 2207 at the moment.

What I really like is the oscillator which is negative zero.
(It may be possible we see a test of polarity on that).

arco

arco
29-04-2005, 05:18 PM
Stopped out at +147 pips.

As I mentioned earlier

"It may be possible we see a test of polarity on that".

.........which appears to be the case.

Will remain flat for the time being.

slam
30-04-2005, 01:27 PM
Got that one right:)
Shorted at 1.2954 (could have been better)
currently 1.2869, 170 pips

Slam

Dazza
30-04-2005, 05:50 PM
slam u brought 2 contracts?
85 pips x 2 = 170?

slam
02-05-2005, 07:17 AM
Hi Dazza
Yep sorry 2 contracts at that price[:I]
Got a bit excited there.
Also brought 2 more at 1.2930, and another 2 at 1.2919.
Got a tight stop on all 6 until I see what happens around 1.2780
If it goes through that resistance ok, may head south to circa 1.22? as the other guys have said.
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
03-05-2005, 08:42 AM
Arco, sorry about the commentators curse:(:( - shall refrain in future;)

Xerof

arco
03-05-2005, 09:28 AM
No problem Xerof......

a profit is a profit....always a chance
to board the next train south.

arco

arco
06-05-2005, 03:25 PM
Actung. Zis looks verry interesting. Ya?

http://www.elliottwaves-online.com/de/images/analysen/EURUSD/050502-EURUSD-m.gif

But is it right..............?

Xerof
06-05-2005, 10:33 PM
Well, for what its worth, my longer term view is actually similar to that chart.

Don't know about the fine tuning, but I believe USD will rear its head in near future and we'll see EUR down to 1.15, maybe 1.10, then it'll turn for HUGE long term rally to 1.50/1.70.

This is based partly on long term charts published by people who have picked the 'big pictures' very well in the past, and partly on fundamentals - very simply, the USD will have a relative growth/rate advantage for a few quarters, then they will have to inflate or die, as the series of tightenings take a grip and burst a few asset bubbles. This, combined with the deficits will turn the dollar around.

Dr G is walking a tightrope and will not deliver IMO.

peat
07-05-2005, 12:18 AM
yeh i'd kinda go with that xerof
tho from a trading perspective it doesnt really help me coz i am too short term oriented.
But do see US accomodative monetary policy of last few years as seriously coming back to bite their ****.

I was short Eur into NFP
a bit risky but paid off ;+

Xerof
09-05-2005, 08:54 AM
Well done Peat.

I'll be looking to sell a recovery back to 1.2880 area now. Currently no position in Euro

Xerof

peat
09-05-2005, 11:44 AM
sell a recovery ??
you mean wait for the retracement back to 2880 then short again.

I am still short... with stop profit at 2838 but wondering about this now.

Xerof
12-05-2005, 12:07 AM
quote:9/5 - I'll be looking to sell a recovery back to 1.2880 area now.

Nice profits for anyone who waited for this area to sell, without being stopped on the stop hunt to 1.2911, before the trade data release;);)

I elected to buy USD/CHF at 1.1986 instead of selling EUR, as chart looked a little clearer - end of wave 4, now in wave 5 on hourly.

S/L at 1.2000 for now


Xerof

peat
12-05-2005, 07:56 AM
i had 2 mini shorts running for last few days with stop loss on one of them at 1,2914 . So that dammed yuan reval rumour last night blew away one of them.[B)]
But other one stayed intact for a ride down to 1.2813 where i liquidated. So sadly i only really broke even on that
Flat now
looking to short again at some stage tho.

I'm finding it difficult to bank profits - they seem to get stolen back off me heheh

slam
12-05-2005, 09:22 AM
Hi Peat
Same, got stopped out on 1 trade, but still got one on the go.;)
I have been a bit too cautious and placed stops too close on several pairs.
Need nerves of steel for this[:I]

Well done with the one you banked though

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:09 AM
Guys, how tight do you run your stops?

The trouble is that unless you are very patient and wait until the optimal entry point, tight stops will usually get hit. i.e average daily range in EUR/USD is over 100 pips, so a 30 pip stop loss is more than likely to get hit more often than not.

BTW, my view is definitely that you need to be patient, not try to be in the market for the sake of being in - you'll lose your capital in quick time

In this game, some of the big guys spend most of their days gunning for stop loss orders..... your positions will more than likely reflect what the herd is doing (no offence intended) and attracts them like a magnet

Either reduce the size of your position and have wider stops, or fade entry in by doing 2 units, then adding 1 or 2 more if the first lot goes your way.

My golden rule is - never risk more than 2% of 'available capital' in any one trade. Work out how wide your stop needs to be, and that will determine the size of your trade.

Hope this assists with those pesky stops done at daily highs/lows. Be assured, you're not alone on this....


Xerof

slam
12-05-2005, 10:24 AM
Hi Xerof
Yep spot on,[:I] Knowing and doing can be a different thing in this game (shouldn't be I know) especially for a novice like myself.
I usually run a 50+ trailing, but may need to widen that as I have found. The trailing is what has got me on a few of the big swings.

Thanks for the reminder to stick to my rules and remember why I entered the Pair in the first place

Cheers
Slam

arco
12-05-2005, 10:37 AM
Well guys, I don't think anyone expected EUR
to retrace 61.8 - the rules of the game are -
"there are no rules".

Now, the 30 min chart is possibly constructing a Pennant,
so always another chance of an entry when the pivot
breaks.

Well done Xerof - burning the midnight oil obviously
paid off this time. But while oil burned, I was in
the land of nod. [:I]

peat
12-05-2005, 10:38 AM
I'm starting to think that I will only use stops as self preservation , eg small lots (which I use anyway ) with stops more than 100 points away from the money just to preserve the account should the market go ballistic while I'm out havin a pee. It seems to me that if you have them loaded (as a way of setting r/r parameters around the trade) they just get hit. Dont tell the system more than u have to I reckon.
Re last night I was short at about 1.2850 with stop at 1.2880 , then extended that stop to 2nd resistance level at 1.2914 and it still got hit. Stupid chinese journalist - i hate you ***** hahah

Xerof
12-05-2005, 10:58 AM
Peat, rule number 2, don't shift your stops further away.

Accepting it's in hindsight, but if you'd stopped out at original level, you at least had an opportunity to resell in the target zone, which was 1.2880 area, with a stop at 12930


quote:9/5 - sell a recovery back to 1.2880 area now

Comments made with genuine intent to assist

Xerof

peat
12-05-2005, 11:22 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Comments made with genuine intent to assist

Xerof

and appreciated...

slam
12-05-2005, 11:23 AM
Xerof, arco
All comments taken graciously and with gratitude:)
Cheers
Slam

peat
12-05-2005, 06:42 PM
looks like it might be rather a volatile evening.... a few fireworks already

peat
13-05-2005, 01:23 AM
kind of as i hoped - 40 pips bagged and as i write 35 still in the hand. So time for sleep.
From what I'm reading it seems like some important levels have been breached , so I'm leaving one of the shorts running.

peat
13-05-2005, 08:24 AM
closed out at 1.2676
due to my account still struggling to break even its nice to actually bag the profits.
100 pips overnite. :+)

peat
13-05-2005, 08:57 AM
EURO/USD - Next Trend Move is Imminent
by Max McKegg
5/12/2005, Forexnews.com
May 12th - My Bearish EURO/USD Outlook has worked out well and the best is still to come! In fact, I now expect an imminent sell-off below Key 1.2770/1.2730 support to herald the next strong decline toward 1.2400, enroute to the 1.2000 level over coming weeks.

peat
15-05-2005, 05:06 PM
fwiw sold again at 1.2680 after work on Fri and held. Still holding.
i would like to be there if it keeps going even at the risk of living with some retracement. fact is, daily looks pretty stretched i.e oversold. those are 3 fat red candles.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:03 AM
Euro looks to have done 5 waves down on 60 min chart.

1.2733, previous support on daily should now contain any corrective rally

Xerof

peat
16-05-2005, 09:52 AM
my stop was (still is)at 1.2750
looks like theres some more pips for takin so far this morning...

slam
16-05-2005, 11:12 AM
Just closed posstion.
Looks lick a retrace imo.

Cheers
Slam

slam
16-05-2005, 11:25 AM
Gone long with a tight stop
Could end up with egg on my face.[:I]
Cheers
Slam

Xerof
16-05-2005, 06:24 PM
Arco,

very interesting chart posted on TT by GWD for EUR.USD. Given his track record what do you make of it?

Does fit nicely with his EUR.GBP chart posted a few days ago, calling for major rally in this cross.

Xerof

peat
16-05-2005, 09:19 PM
...that sounds very contrarian given the sentiment I'm seeing.
I've taken another short at 1.2626 but this one has a tight stop loss.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:41 PM
Agree Peat, going against my instincts too, but I have to say he has posted with unnerving accuracy of late and his views can't be totally ignored.

You'd be following martin on GV no doubt:D:D who also has a great reputation.

Opposing views are what makes this such a great market - you sleep in the bed you make

Cheers, and I note its a quiet week for data Peat, so a few early nights ahead?

Xerof

peat
16-05-2005, 09:47 PM
yeh totally - martin is da man!! heheh

i think u and arco have it sussed too tho....

Xerof
16-05-2005, 09:51 PM
you would have read then that there's a large EUR/GBP oda in London market. Seems GBP side is taking all the pressure of it, hence EUR/USD is slightly more resilient this evening

Xerof

peat
16-05-2005, 09:58 PM
yeh i read that but didnt take too much notice...
i am kinda expecting some resillience after these drops... but can live with it - prepared to punt that it will evaporate.

note xerof, my mini-lots dont amount to much in the big scheme... i wanna play it like this for sometime before i start ramping up the stakes. too me conservatism will enable my survival in this dangerous game.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:05 PM
fairy nuff

peat
16-05-2005, 10:12 PM
well maybe its a bit safe... more fun than the demo accounts tho, and the longer i play the more experience i can get.

massive kudos to you guys tho... some big pip gains been broadcasted.

Xerof
16-05-2005, 10:14 PM
fairy nuff = fair enough

I think you mistook it for something else....hehe

peat
16-05-2005, 10:19 PM
i didnt really think that you were calling me a raving gay bar loiterer.
but there was that slight insinuation hahah

arco
16-05-2005, 10:29 PM
Xerof

GWD seems to have EW sorted IMO.

Did you read my comment re EUR/GBP on TT early May

.......creating a near picture perfect Gartley with the final leg reversing off the old uptrend line.

........ a modest entry approach using a 1,2,3, Ross Hook, or
similar technique could prove to be fruitful.

............I would now like to see a break of 6836.

arco

arco
16-05-2005, 10:37 PM
Xerof

re
quote:"very interesting chart posted on TT by GWD for EUR.USD. Given his track record what do you make of it?"

There is an minor uptrend support line in the vicinity so there could be a possible reversal at this point. We are also very close to the Gartley projection reversal(?) point.

arco

Xerof
16-05-2005, 11:02 PM
Arco, you should know I read everything you post :D:D

Ok well very interesting. re Gartley on EUR/GBP, are you saying recent low around 6750 was point C on bearish Gartley and we're now going to D with target measured as 7060ish (daily chart) or 6750 was D on bullish Gartley (weekly chart) or perhaps both !! giving similar directional result - up. Sorry for the 'Gartley 101'....

Xerof

peat
16-05-2005, 11:15 PM
gartley 101 hahah
i never even heard of gartley... and altho a novice i have heard of most of the technical formations....

fwiw scalped 16 pips on the earlier short.... still one held tho.

peat
16-05-2005, 11:39 PM
OK - for myself as much as anyone
Gartley : This pattern consists of a large impulse followed by a pullback in two shorter waves where AB = CD in time length. Ideally, point D is reached as a 62% - 79% retrace of the XA impulse segment; and the shorter wave series most often in the form of a "measured move". The power in fibonacci ratios is anticipating (in time) and entering (in price) the trade at point D with a defined risk level - buy (bullish gartley) in an uptrend, or short (bear gartley) in a downtrend. Most pattern traders will instantly recognize this larger five-point pattern as a bull or bear flag setup. It is also the underlying structure that defines Elliott wave theory in its simplest form.http://www.chart.nu/bull_bear_gartley.gif

peat
17-05-2005, 02:02 PM
my shorts are going nowhere.... (sounds like something Bart Simpson would say) but I'll run with them still as they hover betweeen profit and loss - i think its called a consolidation period.

Dazza
17-05-2005, 07:12 PM
ic, so peat the gartley theory is just to predict point D, of which can be bullish or bearish

and traders will anticipate and buy/sell depending on predicting point D? nice :D

peat
17-05-2005, 11:09 PM
hey dont ask me to explain it.... arco's the expert.
but from what i posted (and of course read) it seems to me the pattern is formed with the acting out of an ABCD pattern and at precisely D you buy or sell depending on which one it is of course and promptly proceed to make a mint. and i think the point is not only that your gartlye is playing out in a pattern that confirms the larger trend but that at point D your risk/reward ratio is highly favourable.

peat
18-05-2005, 09:34 AM
still riding one short on this pair....

I'm thinking that the degree of retracement (esp considering how far it did move) is small enough to sustain a bearish stance.
new lows would confirm tho.

Xerof
18-05-2005, 09:53 AM
Peat,

dead cat bounce has been seen across the board IMO, but you're right - they all need confirmation

NZD - below 7050
AUD - below 7520
EUR - below 12580
GBP below 18310

nothing too special about those levels, just my feel as to sentimental levels that might trigger decent moves

My only current concern is that USD/CAD has gone the other way overnight, admittedly not much, but the fact remains it has, and it does tend to lead the AUD (and hence NZD)

watching closely.....

meanwhile to keep myself interested and prevent Arkwrights till from rusting up, bought USD/CHF at 1.2200, sold at 1.2261 o/n ;);)

Xerof

peat
18-05-2005, 10:26 AM
yeh the other possibility of course is that its forming a base to go higher...[}:)]

love the way you guys just casually pick up 60 pips....
i seem to struggle to break even hahah....

slam
18-05-2005, 11:07 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof



NZD - below 7050
AUD - below 7520
EUR - below 12580
GBP below 18310


Xerof

Might get your wish soon Xerof. all getting close to breaking

Cheers
Slam

Xerof
18-05-2005, 11:21 AM
Hmm, holding so far

miner
19-05-2005, 09:08 AM
Might do the one green one red on the daily thing?,short around yesterdays hi maybe.

peat
19-05-2005, 09:13 AM
still holding the shorts...
will add more at 1.2730 if it goes there.

miner
20-05-2005, 08:34 AM
Well it did what I thought,gave an ok trade,my other 2 played the game and went the other way,so play all 3 or just 1 and use other 2 for confirmation of the move.

jpy moved first then chf so when they play the game as they did yesterday,get on eur as the other 2 have already said what it is going to do before it does it as well as it looking ok too.

Cheers
Miner

miner
20-05-2005, 08:54 AM
Ok head on chopping block call,look for eur to at least test the low of that last green on the daily,jpy may lead as it is closest to the daily high,of the 3,(last 2 red daily's)and it's the best looking last daily,if they play the game hehe.

Xerof
20-05-2005, 09:12 AM
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050518-wed.html#anchor0

An article to relieve the tedium

Xerof

lakedaemonian
20-05-2005, 12:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof


http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050518-wed.html#anchor0

An article to relieve the tedium

Xerof


Well presented article......it probably best articulates my desire to learn TA.

miner
21-05-2005, 09:15 AM
Well they played the game.

Cheers
Miner

peat
21-05-2005, 03:29 PM
Well it never made it to 1.27 so am just still holding my 2 shorts as per previous. Will continue ride this train all the way down. Anyone like to predict a bottom. Some suggest 1.18 etc...
From a fundamental perspective there are lots of negative possibilities re Euro during remainder of this month. From a technical perspective there is much gravity.

Xerof
23-05-2005, 04:13 PM
Guys,

just posted a chart for the Euro on http://www.tacticaltrader.com/viewtopic.php?p=38212#38212&sid=52b4240601eadf978e4dee964456433a

for your perusal and comment


Xerof

Xerof
23-05-2005, 04:26 PM
sold a smidgeon of Euro at 1.25575, going into London session

slam
23-05-2005, 04:34 PM
Xerof
dito about 15 mins ago;)

peat
23-05-2005, 04:39 PM
i will register on tactical trader at some stage Xerof, but until I do I cant see your chart...
I presume tho (given your short sell) that your graph is predicting further falls. I'm thinking so too. It was quite amazing how quickly support evaporated at 1.2600ish on Fri tho maybe there will be more at the lower 1.25's

Xerof
23-05-2005, 06:05 PM
quote:Long term tech funds have good size stop losses below
$1.2500 and market talk is a weekly close below $1.2500 will draw the long term accounts into the market and further liquidation of long euro-dollar positions could be seen, the trader added.
off the wires

Close enough to be of interest to stop-hunters before end of week. My read of 'long term' accounts is Buffet/Gates types[^][^]

Xerof

peat
23-05-2005, 06:26 PM
yeh
seriously considering adding more but maybe will wait to see if there are any upturns - I'm already here if there arent :D

peat
24-05-2005, 02:05 AM
i added to my core Eur shorts at 1.2596 and 1.2587

Xerof
24-05-2005, 06:46 AM
Closed my tiny short due to complete lack of activity for +2.5 ... yeehaa, about 6 hours before you went to bed Peat. - after 3am[xx(][xx(] you're certainly keen mate:D

Hows the day job?

Xerof

miner
24-05-2005, 06:53 AM
Spinny top morning:(

slam
24-05-2005, 07:04 AM
stopped out of mine
-15[B)]

miner
24-05-2005, 07:11 AM
Watching for a spike to 597 this hour,short on that.

slam
24-05-2005, 07:33 AM
Morning miner
Could be right
592 on my hourly chart;)
See how we go

Cheers
Slam

peat
24-05-2005, 07:37 AM
lol day jobs fine thx... [8D]

slam
24-05-2005, 07:50 AM
may have topped

peat
24-05-2005, 05:43 PM
there certainly seems to be good resistance just below 1.26

Xerof
24-05-2005, 05:57 PM
Peat, might see 12630 where I might.. sell

Xerof

miner
24-05-2005, 06:12 PM
Run up to 599 was strong,may go thru it?.

miner
24-05-2005, 06:25 PM
Xerof why 12630?,ta

miner
24-05-2005, 06:37 PM
Thru the half hour,looking longish.

Xerof
24-05-2005, 06:48 PM
if stops above 600 get run, should get to 25/30, but maybe not high enough to reach sell orders at 50 and above. See the chart I posted on TT (not mine - borrowed but has credibility), wave 4 should end in this area 650/700 maximum

miner
24-05-2005, 06:51 PM
Ok ta got to sign up for TT to have a look,fits with arco's usd/jpy post today.

miner
25-05-2005, 05:56 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Peat, might see 12630 where I might.. sell

Xerof


U da man:D

slam
25-05-2005, 07:06 AM
Good call Xerof

Xerof
25-05-2005, 08:01 AM
didn't wait for 30 - just as well as my platform high bid was 26, but sold a sliver at 18. Slipped a bit of GBP out at 18343 and sucked some USD/CHF in at 1.2247 (my platforms low offer - don't you just love it when that happens:D:D) Oh, and shorted NZD at 43 as well....[:p][:p]

Thinking that was the end of wave 4 for most pairings, but will have to wait and see. S/l's as usual

Xerof

but its not all beer and skittles - just for the record I stopped out of my 2 short kiwi's I had from Friday at 17 for small losses:(:(:(

arco
25-05-2005, 08:38 AM
Xerof

I feel EUR still has to correct higher.

My counting (if I am correct) shows the possibility
of a rise to circa 2695-2715 to complete minor wave
'iv' before reversing to fall lower.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/05252005ew.gif

Your thoughts?

arco

Xerof
25-05-2005, 10:08 AM
Arco,

Very clear chart thanks. I just think a deeper test of very recent lows is coming first - nothing too much but 1.25 area is too close a magnet for stop hunters. Just call it gut feel at this stage.

Your counts line up with others I have seen - 1.2700 area seems the ideal completion area for wave 4 on the weekly chart.

p.s. my Murphy book arrived yesterday - let the edgimucation begin[^][^] If you don't hear from me for a few days, I'm poring over charts......also bought Raghee Horners book out of interest - she has some interesting trading techniques - swing and breakout mainly.

www.raghee.com is the site (haven't been there yet myself, but will do so today)


cheers
Xerof

Xerof
25-05-2005, 10:13 AM
Arco,

Yesterday, TRL made the call to sell at 12615/30 level.
I just asked TRL for his chart interpretation - here it is:


quote:Minor Wave IV/ (of larger Wave 3/ dating from 1.2990 peak) ended last Friday night at 1.2690) ... Minor Wave V/ of this larger 3rd is sub-dividing .... Wave i/ ended at 1.2535 ... Wave ii/ ended at 1.2630 last night (exact 61% retracement) which makes the current Outlook through to week’s end very interesting indeed.


regards

Xerof

arco
25-05-2005, 10:30 AM
Xerof

Which just goes to prove EW counts are quite subjective,
although I did have that plot in my mind as a possibility.

I will stick with my count until I see the outcome of
the next few days.

Are you basing your trading on McCleggs service?

arco

Xerof
25-05-2005, 10:57 AM
I am a subscriber and take his views into account as part of my overall positioning, but sometimes have gone against his calls - and won some, lost some as you might expect. His commentary is certainly an important part of the "Xerof mix", - call it a guiding influence

peat
26-05-2005, 05:14 PM
oh yeh:D

Xerof
26-05-2005, 05:26 PM
Peat, (and gold coast martin.....)

peat
26-05-2005, 05:28 PM
i take no credit
but i take the pips.
its well cooler to be able to predict it yourself
but c'est la vie.

and anyway at this stage I still hold my 4 mini shorts.... will keep them for the 1.24 or even lower. but at this stage its nice to see the pressure is still down

peat
26-05-2005, 10:40 PM
ok couldnt resist booking 2 of them at 1.2525
Ferengi rule of Acqusition No 1
A profit is a profit.

peat
31-05-2005, 12:00 AM
new lows for 2005 ....

arco
31-05-2005, 12:23 PM
With London and New York returning from holidays later in the session, traders were looking for fresh clues on direction from U.S. data including nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. "The French rejection had been widely priced in and the market has come to a reasonable level," said a dealer at a Japanese trust bank.

"It would take non-EU factors, notably U.S. economic indicators, as well as weak economic data out of the euro zone to put further pressure on the euro," he said.


More...........

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh3752 9_2005-05-31_00-14-23_t316143_newsml

Xerof
01-06-2005, 06:46 PM
quote:"the market has come to a reasonable level," said a dealer at a Japanese trust bank

Well, never trust dealers at Japanese Trust Banks I guess

Russian selling at 12340 earlier I'm told - weren't they the ones holding it above 12800????? No wonder they're bankrupt[8D][8D]

D: this is the one and only that I missed on way down - got stopped out on a tight stop last Friday -- at the highs -- of course[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

arco
01-06-2005, 09:50 PM
Obviously not worth reading that drivel.
As I have often said.....I don't take too
much notice of fundamental info.

I always follow this simple thought.....

The chart is King....long live the chart ;)

arco
02-06-2005, 08:01 AM
Just in case anyone has missed the news.......

Dutch say 'No' to EU constitution

Many Dutch are unhappy with the government and the economy
Voters in the Netherlands have overwhelmingly rejected the proposed European Union constitution.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4601439.stm

peat
02-06-2005, 08:11 AM
i didnt see the news but the charts already told me hahah

peat
02-06-2005, 01:14 PM
reduced my positions at just above and below the 1.22 level
looks like the retracement is occurring - it had to sooner or later.

i'll sit back with just the one open position now - let the dust settle for 24 hours i think. eat some food and drink some wine tonite.

peat
03-06-2005, 06:34 AM
this retracement took out my trailing stop at 1.2285 on the first time up but 1.2290 having been rejected 3 times this now begins to look like a level to re-enter short.

lakedaemonian
04-06-2005, 07:26 AM
quote:Italian Welfare Minister Maroni suggested it would be “better” if Italy readopted the lira again, a very controversial comment in light of the recent problems the European Union has had. The common currency dove to the $1.2230 level in mere minutes on this comment but was back just below the $1.2300 figure by the time U.S. non-farm payrolls data for May were released. The Italian comment was stinging because France and Holland this week voted to turn down the EU constitution. The European Commission reacted by confirming “the euro is forever.”

Open mouth, insert foot [:0]

I would have thought portraying the Euro in a negative light by ANY European government Cabinet Member would be a major no no :D

arco
07-06-2005, 10:59 AM
Blair gives up on his EU dreamBy Melissa Kite, Toby Harnden and Tony Paterson
(Filed: 05/06/2005)

Tony Blair has given up on Europe as an issue worth fighting for, senior allies of the Prime Minister have told The Sunday Telegraph.

A leading Blairite cabinet minister made the admission last night as the European Union descended into deeper turmoil, with doubts surfacing over the future of the single currency.

Mr Blair, who will seek to shift the focus of his administration on to poverty in the Third World this week during talks with President Bush, has told his closest allies: "Africa is worth fighting for. Europe, in its present form, is not."

The signal is an astonishing U-turn for a leader who said three years ago that the euro was "our destiny" and who announced a British referendum by proclaiming: "Let the battle be joined." But one of his closest allies said that Mr Blair no longer believed that putting Britain at the heart of Europe could be his legacy: "Europe is back to the drawing board. Africa will become more important."

Mr Blair flies to Washington tomorrow to try to secure support for proposals to tackle poverty ahead of next month's G8 summit in Gleneagles. But the Prime Minister is unlikely to be able to divert attention completely from the chaos over Europe's future.

President Chirac of France and Germany's Chancellor Schröder held a summit in Berlin last night after the No votes in France and Holland on the constitution.
Yet the crisis widened beyond the document alone, with a media offensive being mounted to bolster the euro after German officials and an Italian minister openly discussed its possible demise. In the first rumblings of a call for the franc to be reinstated, Nicolas Dupont-Aignant, a member of Mr Chirac's ruling UMP party, said: "France, Italy and Germany would be in a better state without the euro. However, I don't believe we should ditch it now.

"But either it is reformed, and the central European Bank kick-starts growth by lowering interest rates and pursuing a more American-style monetary policy, or the euro will explode in mid-air."

The governor of France's central bank, however, rushed to the euro's defence. Christian Noyer said that the currency was "in no way under threat" following its fall in value since the No votes of the past seven days. He dismissed as "absurd" the idea of a temporary withdrawal from the euro by individual states.

"The euro is a solid currency which brings us a lasting guarantee of stable prices and thus the maintenance of purchasing power for our wages and savings," he told Le Parisien newspaper.

The markets have been slowly adjusting to the possibility of the break-up of the euro, with the spread between government bonds in different countries widening.

Last night, John Redwood, the leading eurosceptic Tory MP, said: "You can't have a single currency without a single government. They are in a mess because they have only done half of it and they are now discovering in a painful way what that means."

The No campaign in Britain will launch a campaign tomorrow demanding a referendum on any aspects of the constitution that leaders might attempt to salvage. It will also unveil 46 new business backers, including Stuart Rose, chief executive of Marks & Spencer.

An ICM poll for the No group found that 81 per cent of voters say that it would be unacceptable to bring in any of the proposals without a referendum in Britain first.

Additional reporting by Henry Samuel

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;sessionid=0COXJNZA4GEQ5QFIQMGCM5WAVCBQU JVC?xml=/news/2005/06/05/neu05.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/06/05/ixportaltop.html&secureRefresh=true&_requestid=22123

Walt
09-06-2005, 10:51 AM
Funny old price action last night in EUR.

Threatened 1.2340/50 (post-payrolls high) which if cleared would have been quite positive for a retest of 1.2500. Failed at that level, and I doubt anyone really knows why we are now 100 pips lower. Reuters just reports the standard fluffy techncial selling line (read, no idea!).

Seems like we trace out a range in EUR prior to Greenspan testimony tonight, 1.2200-1.2290 should hold it until then.

Data has been soft recently, and if Greenspan fails to sound upbeat about the economy, I still favour a bounce from here. A retracement of larger degree is still well overdue.

Therefore find it difficult to be short EUR down at these levels - long with a stop below 1.2200 is the play at present for the next 48 hours.

Walt
10-06-2005, 07:50 AM
Well I got stopped last night on Greenspan's more upbeat testimony. Notably the market has come back from those losses, and never really threatened the Jun 1st 1.2157 low.

So my inclination whilst the Jun 1st low holds is to be long off these levels. Short term traders are well long dollars now (IMM stats) and although on a med-term basis any recovery is an opportunity to sell, for the short term I favour a recovery, or at worst a range 1.2150-1.2350. The nice thing about being long here, is that stops are very well defined.

Quiet Friday data-wise ahead, the market most likely to drift within the range.

arco
10-06-2005, 09:03 AM
Morning All

Gann support currently holding at 2207.

Bearish Gartley targets have been met and
with some oscillators in minor divergence we
could see a retracement northward at this point.

An eventual move south may even see a continuation
to a full grown Butterfly, and if that were to be the
case then circa 1150 is not out of the question in the
longer term.

Long term positions still signaling to remain short,
with short term positions flat awaiting directional
indication.

arco
16-06-2005, 09:59 AM
Bullish Engulfing Pattern should give a short term
north bound move.

Long term the indication still looks to be south.

slam
22-06-2005, 11:22 PM
If you look at the 1hour chart over that last few days, imo we have now started another 5,3 pattern down.
So far we have had a 5 down, abc retrace and now on leg 1 down again.
Not so clear but looks the same on the GBP as well with abc complete and leg 1 complete.
Looks the same on 4 hour as well
Time will tell as always;)

Cheers
Slam

arco
23-06-2005, 09:41 AM
Slam

You must be finding that EW book interesting.
I've read it maybe 4 times over a period of years
and I'm still baffled in the shorter times periods.

Another of Prechters books is "At The Crest Of The
Tidal Wave". In that book he discusses the
"Point Of Recognition"

There is a point along the way in every bull (bear) market when investors suddenly seem to get the message. It always happens in the "third of third wave," the centerpoint of the entire structure.

And another little gem...........

"When the fifth of the fifth wave tops out, we need not ask why it has done so. Reality again, will be forced upon us. When the producers who are leeched upon disappear or are consumed, the leeches
who remain will have lost their life support system, and the laws of nature will have to be patiently re-learned."
(EWP, Frost & Prechter

You've seen me mention 1150 earlier.....now that seems
a long way down.....but it could happen.

arco

slam
23-06-2005, 10:19 AM
Thanks for that arco
Will look for those books.
I don't profess to know diddly about EW yet but practice makes perfect (or closer to it)
Really enjoying a little more knowledge to throw into the pot

Cheers
slam

arco
28-06-2005, 11:28 AM
Heres my EW count, which currently
shows EUR is due for a short term north move.

Also check out the nice divergence on the Osc.

http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/06252005ew.gif

arco

arco
30-06-2005, 09:50 AM
Overnight action has printed a Harami Cross reversal pattern.

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/images/bull/1117.gif

Pattern: reversal. Reliability: low

Identification
A long black day is followed by a Doji which gaps opposite the trend and is completely engulfed by the real body of the first day.

The Psychology
In a downtrend or within a pullback of an uptrend, a long black day occurs. The next day’s gap up comes as a surprise to the shorts who thought they were sitting on a great position the previous day. The stock closes where it opens to signify a churn day with neither the bulls nor bears showing much force after the opening gap up. Reliability of the bullish Harami Cross is low, so a strong following day is needed for confirmation.

arco
30-06-2005, 11:07 AM
Possible minor support at 1963
Eventual next target and major Gann support - 1718.

miner
30-06-2005, 06:18 PM
Nice double top for a trade,see if it keeps going?.

slam
30-06-2005, 08:50 PM
hi miner
sorry mate I owe you an email[:I]
cheers
slam

miner
30-06-2005, 08:53 PM
That you do;) ,to busy watching FX ay[8D],see if we keep going south on this one?.

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
01-07-2005, 09:04 AM
Here's a fundamental for you to sell EUR strength on[^][^]



quote:Seems Germany is about to admit that it is going to break the deficit rule imposed by the EU for the next three years. In Eichel's own words, "The state of Germany's finances is dramatic".



Xerof

arco
01-07-2005, 09:23 AM
Morning All

So the figure I mentioned on 10.6 may not be
out of the question.

10.6 An eventual move south may even see a continuation
to a full grown Butterfly, and if that were to be the
case then circa 1150 is not out of the question in the
longer term.

Interesting to see the EUR has risen but the GBP
suffered a nasty fall.

Xerof fill me in with the fundamental reasons behind
that imbalance if you can?

Thanks

arco

Xerof
01-07-2005, 09:54 AM
Ahem, well from what I'm hearing there's a battle of the Titans going on in EUR, with rumored heavy defence of 1.20 from a certain party based in Omaha. Clearly their largest USD short position is against EUR, hence the other pairings are making the moves in the right direction but EUR is lagging. Looking for it to play catchup.....eventually

CAD is running with the USD rather than the high yielders for a change, but thats the Loonie for you



Xerof

arco
01-07-2005, 10:26 AM
Thank you kind sir for that very prompt
and knowledgeable reply.

Xerof
01-07-2005, 10:40 AM
Arco, you could give Warren a ring to confirm that:D:D

peat
03-07-2005, 09:35 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof


EUR is lagging. Looking for it to play catchup.....eventually
Xerof

I thought eventually would take longer... but quite glad that it didnt
A very nice ride down... :D I closed flat for the weekend by 3am our time , and hit the clubs heheh.
It will be interesting to see if there will be a few hundred point correction at some stage. Do have to be wary for it I think. Far off targets such as parity are now getting mentioned more frequently tho.

Xerof
03-07-2005, 02:32 PM
Yes I took my short Eur/USD positions back in early 1.20's, it bounced a bit but didn't resell, only to see it collapsed in the last few hours of the week, when I was far from clubbing Peat:(:(.

The main man over on the other channel seems to have it all under control.

I personally think its now a sell at 1.2000/1.2050 if seen, for a real go at seeing if they can 'bottle' the man from Omaha now. 1.1665 is the holy grail I believe and it may be seen rather quickly. Then you might get the 400/500 pip bounce, maybe even back up as high as 1.27, then hard down to 110/111, before a nice long rally to 1.40/1.50 on a 12 month horizon. (fundamentals will surely have some say in this eventually)

But thats for the future - need to get short again and take it 100 pips at a time.[8D][8D]


Xerof

arco
04-07-2005, 08:17 AM
quote:Xerof - Arco, you could give Warren a ring to confirm that

I just talked to his Mum and she says he's
very upset about something you said about
a dollar bill ( perhaps she said dollar
bull? - that Omaha drawl is very difficult
to understand).

Apparantly his Weetbix got all soggy from him
crying over breakfast. Sounded like shes said
he's run right out of issues.......
perhaps that should be tissues :D

I've suggested she should get him a book on
Butterflies and Bats for Christmas.

Xerof
04-07-2005, 09:00 AM
Hehe,

Perhaps she should buy him some USD for Christmas:D:D

slam
05-07-2005, 10:39 AM
GBP may be taking the EUR with it

miner
05-07-2005, 10:44 AM
As in north slam?.

slam
05-07-2005, 10:47 AM
imo yep:)

miner
05-07-2005, 10:50 AM
Hope so as gone long for a trade in part because EUR/JPY is looking good for north.

arco
07-07-2005, 02:45 PM
Going against the flow but managed to squeeze
30 pips out of a long trade last night btw 4-8pm.....

However, scaling in a few shorts at the moment.
Tight stop.

miner
07-07-2005, 02:55 PM
Good stuff Arco EUR/JPY ended up the better of the 2 though.

peat
08-07-2005, 07:13 AM
amazing spike last nite! got a lil burned by it , nothing too major.. had some extra sells scaled up thru the high 1.19's with stop loss on those entries at 1.2027 so yeh got sold and bought back without even being there hahah. Another example for me to note that set stop losses seem to lose one money. Better to be right sized in ones position and have flexibility.

I still have my original positions short on this pair tho.

arco
08-07-2005, 08:46 AM
Tight stops got triggered...only 20 pips
so no real damage done....

Fight to live another day ;)

Xerof
12-07-2005, 04:34 PM
Well, FWIW, I think we're finally seeing the wave 4 action that has been threatening for some time on the weekly chart, which should target 1.2300/50, then get ready for wave 5 action down to 1.16/1.15

Similar action for other major pairings.

I'm sidelined waiting and watching - GC Martins comments are noted regarding 1.2182, and respected, so will observe price action carefully later on tonight, in case we do see another 'early' turn


Xerof

peat
12-07-2005, 05:14 PM
in an upwards 5 wave movement wave 4 is often sideways trianglish

perhaps this will be as well...

Xerof
12-07-2005, 05:50 PM
As usual Peat, I'm very vague on my waves - just looking at Arco's last chart on previous page - its that wave iv I was referring to.

Don't know what the price action over recent days might have done to that picture, but seems a good possibility, subject to our flow mans confidence in 1.2182 level of course, that early 1.23's might be seen.

Nothing like a nice cleanout to get ready for a sell-off from a higher plane - means it should fall harder, especially in wave v

3's and 5's are the best to trade IMO

Xerof
12-07-2005, 09:08 PM
Pheeeew, Peat, still hanging in there? A tiny bit of upside slippage, but starting to look better for GC Martin's line in the sand. Might be a late night.....watching Titans at play

chuck another 5 billion at the bloody thing.....:D:D

peat
12-07-2005, 10:05 PM
i am xerof
this a a good learning experience

[B)]

Xerof
12-07-2005, 10:23 PM
Its called character building - all I can say is stick to your rules.

Inevitably when you don't, the market canes you mercilessly.

I've got a few welts on my back from yesterday from not entirely following my own rules (smacked like a red-headed step-son, as they say) but lived to fight another day

Xerof

peat
12-07-2005, 10:28 PM
i set a non movable stop to start scaling out at 1.2205 , i kinda wondered if the 00's would act as a barrier... which they have so far.Thing is tho, to me it really doesnt look like weakness can arrive soon. The buying is very solid.

peat
12-07-2005, 10:33 PM
haha as soon as I say that the trend line testing on the bottomside occurs, not that I mind.

Xerof
12-07-2005, 10:39 PM
very large sell oda hit market at 00 - US investy bank

peat
12-07-2005, 10:47 PM
well for some big players who were long 1.22 might seem like a bit of a reprieve given a 1.20 and falling situation...

miner
13-07-2005, 11:39 AM
It was a long on trend line break(hourly),usd/chf did the same as did eur/jpy(break on a few time charts and bounced of daily trend line),and eur/usd had a nice hammer on the 5min just as they were doing it.

Eur/usd and eur/jpy went same way usd/chf other so they confirmed the move with each other,pity me had no power last night tho.

Cheers
Miner

miner
13-07-2005, 01:35 PM
Double bottom on the 15 and 5 min to go with the hourly trend line break,worth a watch,although other 3 a tad messy.

Xerof
13-07-2005, 03:20 PM
May be seeing some back filling of the eye-watering, ball busting rally of last 48 hours, but still have a sneaky feeling we could yet see over 1.23 before we head south again.

Still waiting, watching for an entry point. Same with other pairings basically

Xerof

p.s. Arco, where are you? completing a chapter?:D:D

miner
13-07-2005, 03:24 PM
Was just thinking may have to wait for the big boys to come on for a bit of direction:Dnorth would be nice;).

miner
13-07-2005, 04:46 PM
Might have just been the turn?.

miner
13-07-2005, 06:28 PM
Two minds don't mix,medium mind said long trading mind and screens said short,end result[B)],so cup of tea CD on try again;).

slam
13-07-2005, 07:02 PM
Need something in that Tea miner[?];)
I've been off 2 minds today as well
Neither of them sane, so 70 odd pips later, might sit on hands.
Most against the USD need to go higher yet before next down

Cheers
Slam

miner
13-07-2005, 07:12 PM
Could be the problem that bit with me tea,bad tooth so smashed on 2 tramals at the mo,nup prob was broke my rule of trade off my screens with an empty mind relaxed and a CD on,had a few numbers and thoughts of other peoples in my head today,3 times thought going a certain way but didn't listen to that first thought.

Never mind back to my rules and back into it,blew this short so STOP regroup and no frustration trading.

peat
13-07-2005, 09:02 PM
I'm retreating at the moment .... lickin some near mortal battle wounds...
Me got well done over by this corrective rally pretty much ate me the whole way. and then reversed when I got out.... such are markets .... especially the kiwi shorts , I knew those would come back strong but I succumbed to fear , as earlier I succumbed to greed

Strange saying to have an empty mind for trading but yeh it makes good sense
Demo system for me for a little while to try and get courage back....

Have a good nite everyone - as one guy said on global-view I hope you made some of the pips I lost heheheh

Finished the Elliot Wave book now..... dont think they quite got their predictions right , but I guess theres still time for the Dow to hit 400 hahah

peat
18-07-2005, 11:45 AM
have day off work but it seems Tokyo is also on holiday so maybe market wont have much life till London?
have longed Eur twice already this morning for pip raids +20
for some reason last weeks burn has put me into mode:raid. trying to let mind go blank and read the chart...
good trades this week to all....

Xerof
19-07-2005, 04:43 PM
Nice little breakout trade there in the EUR 4 hour chart - it was right in the apex, so had to go with whatever direction it took - sold at 12050, took back at the fib 61.8 line at 12016

easy pips

MACD gave hint of direction of the breakout, being below zeroline, and can be used as confirmation of the trade.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 06:14 PM
Looks like fresh air between here and 11900, now that 618 fib has broken convincingly

miner
19-07-2005, 06:23 PM
Hope so,usd/jpy through can it hold usd/chf ok for opp way,eur/jpy slow to move so worth a watch..

miner
19-07-2005, 09:55 PM
Xerof where would you set a stop loss for the night on this one before good night kiwi time?.

Xerof
19-07-2005, 10:24 PM
Miner, well its a swing trade environment again, so I would be selling rallies, not selling right here.

Sell a rally to 12020, with a stop at 12055 would be my view from here

Xerof

miner
19-07-2005, 10:38 PM
Ta for thoughts but already short from a few hours back,got a stop on that at 2010,so might leave it at that see if I stay in.

Didn't first thought buy usd/jpy or usd/chf so been a wet paper bag night anyway,so time for bedybys try again in the morning,good luck if your doing the late shift tonight hehe.

Cheers
Miner

Xerof
20-07-2005, 10:58 AM
Hmmm, off that recommendation for a moment. Looks to me like market has priced in a good news speech from Greenspan tonite, and has taken some profit off the table already. May be more taken off if he 'only' comes in at expectation.

One leading commentator (from PIMCO) reckons FED will pause in August, which if Greenspan signals in tonites talkfest, would doubtless see an explosive upside move for EUR et al

I'm staying square until after his 'big brother uncut' show tomorrow morning

Xerof

Xerof
20-07-2005, 12:36 PM
wow - 1.2140 for a sell

peat
21-07-2005, 07:42 AM
I was actually long Eur from about 1.2070 area last nite coz thats what the indicators were telling me but had to close it out before sleep time coz I couldnt really trust it not to fall and, as is now seen any reasonable stop loss would have been hit. so yeh its annoying....
not seeing any posts from you Arco, is that because you are out in a market like this?

peat
21-07-2005, 07:47 AM
[North American FX Close] Greenspan's warning on a cooling in the housing sector led many players to believe the Fed is getting close to neutral.

Xerof
22-07-2005, 03:12 PM
Euro has just broken out of a triangle on hourly, but MACD not confirming yet. Aggressive trade would be to buy it now with stop and reverse at 12145, or wait until its above 12180, with MACD confirmation

Other alternative of course would be to sell it at 12145, being other side of triangle, with stop at 12175

Xerof
23-07-2005, 10:10 AM
Agressive trade mentioned would have stopped out for 25 pip loss. Short entry on downside escape would have made 90 so far.

I did neither - just testing the theories, but liking it - seems to work most times. Also spotted a beautiful triangle set-up on the GBP last night which ended up being good for 140 pips by NYK close. Again though it broke out to upside first, there was no MACD confirmation, and like EUR ended in a downside resolution

peat
02-08-2005, 11:37 AM
opinions on this pair?
Many believe that the EUr downward trend hasnt been broken but it is being tested. At what point does it confirm ?
1.2260 seems like the barrier to me, and its not managing to close above those levels so I'm still going with shorts but with my lack of timing skills i.e bad entry points its not really working in the short term

Xerof
02-08-2005, 12:33 PM
Looks to me like its just completed a wave 4 on the hourly chart, now progressing in wave 5, to break the 'triple top' around 12250 and head higher mate, but I'm not doing a lot at the moment....

Xerof

peat
02-08-2005, 02:52 PM
any guesses where that 5th might take us?

Xerof
02-08-2005, 02:59 PM
12350/00, and I'm wondering if that FINALLY completes wave 4 on the weeklies before it goes to 11500 to complete 5 waves down

but has to break this triple top first.....

lots of DNT barriers around 12255 I believe, but that means if it breaks it'll burst higher

I see GCM has been taking some heat over on the GV side[xx(][xx(]

Xerof

peat
02-08-2005, 03:08 PM
yeh he has and has stopped posting as much now.

he's stated somewhere about 1.2316 (approx) as being significant but in the past he's been very flexible with his stops so I wouldnt put too much credence on a number really.

I'm in a real quandary at the moment , I could handle the 1.23's if necessary , theoretically I could c;lose out and reshort higher but I know if I do that then it will fall immediately heheh.

peat
03-08-2005, 09:26 AM
Tuesday, August 2, 2005 8:34 GMT
Daily Report
By Jyske Bank
http://www.jyskebank.com

Today's comment - A Ticket to Ride
Minds of many a trader are - more than normally - split these hours as EUR/USD approaches very tough resistance at 122.55. One camp favours a triangle scenario with the top coming in at exactly the 122.55 level, and the 120 area constituting the bottom of the formation. And most fans of this theory do not reckon on a beforestanding break of the 122.55 triangle top. A fact further supported by the overall bought positions on the USD according to the latest IMM-data. The opposite camp - including yours truly - reckon on EUR/USD being in the midst of forming a temporary bottom formation leading to a definite break of 122.55 and taking the cross higher towards 125-127.

Xerof
03-08-2005, 10:25 AM
12255 tried last night as you would have seen Peat - a definite line in the sand. IF it can be broken, 12350 in smart time, but then probably down IMO. Talk of 'massive' stops on other side of 12255, but the defense of that level seems very stout indeed.

Easy trade would be to buy on s/l entry at 12265 I guess, otherwise let the triangle apparent on the daily play out a bit further - it has plenty of time to get towards the apex

Xerof

peat
03-08-2005, 11:24 AM
i was asleep at the time ;+)
but I did have an SMS alarm set for 1.2256 so yeh that level is seen as critical (I dont use auto-stops anymore coz they are just shark fodder )

Xerof
03-08-2005, 08:56 PM
Well, I hope someone followed my trade recommendation........ becoz I didn't

Xerof:(:(

miner
03-08-2005, 09:07 PM
Double Bottom on eur/jpy daily helped,where to now tho?.

Xerof
03-08-2005, 09:19 PM
1.2350+


quote:posted 2/8/05 12350/00, and I'm wondering if that FINALLY completes wave 4 on the weeklies before it goes to 11500 to complete 5 waves down

Need to keep the bigger piccy in the frame

Xerof

miner
03-08-2005, 09:32 PM
Got to go back a ways on daily for 350,also watching 137.20 on eur/jpy,big boys will let us know tonight maybe.

peat
04-08-2005, 11:09 AM
quote:Originally posted by Xerof

Well, I hope someone followed my trade recommendation........ becoz I didn't

Xerof:(:(

not as such in a postive sense
but did close out my shorts and did take a short USD/CHF so could be worse heheh

I guess what we need to decide now is what will constitute the completion of this leg upward and what would confirm the downlard leg commencement.

arco
04-08-2005, 02:26 PM
Heres a short term Elliott Wave count from EWMT
that may be of interest.

http://www.elliottwavemarkettiming.com/eur/eurst.gif

slam
04-08-2005, 03:48 PM
Can someone give me the current and low for the day on this pair?
I'm stuck ina hotel in Auckland with the slowest connection in the world:(
Trading Station won't even load

tia

Slam

peat
04-08-2005, 04:22 PM
currently at 1.2334
daily high 1.2381
daily low 1.2317

Xerof
04-08-2005, 05:21 PM
Slam, possibly the pay per view might be more interesting than the current activity:D:D

12330 still....

Xerof

slam
04-08-2005, 11:29 PM
Cheers Guys
Pay per View;)
Just looking now, [8D]
Just finished a gig so might watch for a while

Cheers Slam

arco
25-08-2005, 02:22 PM
Looks like Mrs Ganns barmy army at 2207 are holding firm,
so we might just see a run to the 2678-2693 area where
Major Gann has a strong foothold.

;)

peat
25-08-2005, 05:22 PM
you're pickin a 400 point run up arco?

arco
25-08-2005, 07:03 PM
Hi Peat

Nothing is certain in forex but anything is possible
once butterflies start their journey north.

arco

arco
26-08-2005, 11:45 AM
Everyones gone to the Moon - except Jonathan

.....but as long as butterfles head north thats fine with me.

http://www.pip.com.au/~chenderson/BIGRBFLY.gif

peat
31-08-2005, 12:05 PM
MORE FREE EWI :


EURUSD (Intraday)
Posted On: Aug 30 2005 8:46PM ET / Aug 31 2005 12:46AM GMT
Last Price: 1.2230
High Confidence

[consolidation then down to challenge 1.2127]

Prices appear ready to test the area of first
resistance near 1.2240.


Resistance should be anywhere from the previous
fourth near 1.2240 on up to the .62 Fibo near 1.2280.

arco
01-09-2005, 01:23 PM
from the EWI free week...........

http://www.elliottwave.com/images/forexfocus/eurFW2.gif

arco
02-09-2005, 10:36 AM
Mentioned 25th Aug

quote:
.........we might just see a run to the 2678-2693 area where
Major Gann has a strong foothold.

Winging nicely north at the moment....(medium term).

........probably about 200 pips minimum so far
for any brave souls who joined the Monarch flight [:0]

arco milking the monarchs

slam
07-09-2005, 03:12 PM
Same as JYP cross, looking like c of V to the 2690ish area, arco's target

slam

arco
07-09-2005, 03:37 PM
You don't mean C of E do yah Slam?

See, that wines working already

Just thinking there still may still be a bit
of downward pressure before we reverse to the
target area mentioned 25/8

slam
07-09-2005, 04:06 PM
Yeh, sorry arco, that's what I ment[:I]
(bugger, more homework[:o)])

Xerof
09-09-2005, 09:30 AM
Arco,

Following up on a post over at TT by master re a gartley on EUR/USD, I've done the calcs and seems a very precise formation is/has formed. Could you cast your net over this one?

The classic features appear to be in place - AB = CD, D is at 50% fib of XA, and there was a 2 wave in CD

Looks like EUR was/is a buy around 12375/80 level, with a stop below the 61.8% fib at 12325.

Also lines up with your recent comments re turn levels, so maybe you've already worked this one out and caught a few monarchs overnite????

regards

Xerof

arco
09-09-2005, 10:39 AM
Morning Xerof - welcome back

Yes this is a Gartley I have been posting about
since many moons (giving Gann targets on TT and ST)
Looks like Mrs Ganns barmy army at 2207 are holding firm,
so we might just see a run to the 2678-2693 area where
Major Gann has a strong foothold

In the short time I have been riding on this last swing down
for about 55 pips, whilst carfully watching events unfold,
because at some point the worm will turn for Hatfield and the
North ;)

arco

slam
12-09-2005, 09:46 AM
Fighting with 2400 atm
hopefully will hold
Gone long for the 690ish target:)
Cheers
slam

arco
12-09-2005, 10:49 AM
Morning Slam

I closed off my short for a wee profit
and reversed long at 2394. Tight stop
as not certain the fall is completed.

arco

peat
12-09-2005, 12:37 PM
on Fri Max said 1.24 looked like suppport ready for back up
today he's not sure that its completed the down wave - he suggests 1.2380- 2300 will be exhaustive phase
so yeh you and him are on the same track really arco.

I'm building long positions slowly ....

slam
12-09-2005, 01:30 PM
Took a small dive and cut the loses.
will get back long when its closer to 2300 which is the daily uptrend (if it gets there)

slam

Edit: Unless it bounces of the 61.8 fib

arco
12-09-2005, 01:31 PM
Hi Peat

Does Max give you actual entry/exit points?

.......and if not, how can you benifit from his report?

arco

peat
12-09-2005, 02:12 PM
quote:Originally posted by arco


Hi Peat

Does Max give you actual entry/exit points?

.......and if not, how can you benifit from his report?

arco


no he doesnt give entry points - merely targets and support/resistance levels.

yes I suppose thats a good question how I can benefit. I am trying to use his medium term goals to build positions.... but so far hes been changing the short term support levels lower so once again I am riding negative positions.

peat
13-09-2005, 10:42 AM
entry points today are to buy at 1.2250

hmmmm will we see this?

slam
13-09-2005, 11:02 AM
Hi Pete
imo we may have seen the low at 2271, I'm hoping so anyway;)
Cheers
Slam

arco
13-09-2005, 11:53 AM
Peat

That sounds like it could be based around
EW theory. i.e using the high of 12/7 as support.

Anyway, just go long, and take the rest of the day off ;)

arco

peat
13-09-2005, 01:36 PM
acknowledged.....

peat
14-09-2005, 10:03 AM
apparently reversal is imminent

either that or bankruptcy

[xx(]

miner
14-09-2005, 10:13 AM
Touch 219ish first maybe?.

arco
14-09-2005, 10:54 AM
Peat you said
apparently reversal is imminent....either that or bankruptcy

Dont despair.

50% Fibo at 2226
High of 12/7 = 2256
Whats your friend M saying

Morning Miner :)

Not sure if it will drop that low, seems
to be trying to turn

arco

peat
14-09-2005, 11:14 AM
quote:Whats your friend M saying

his spiel on all USD crosses is the same , prior, it was "correcting nicely ", today its "...corrected nicely-reversal is imminent "

for Eur yesterday he was saying buy at 2255 stop at 2230
today he is saying just buy with stop at 2240

miner
14-09-2005, 11:42 AM
Arvo Arco,yep may be a tad low but if it does it will be the top side of my dodgy trend line on the last 2 daily's,just watching anyway as doing other stuff today.

Cheers
Miner

arco
14-09-2005, 12:03 PM
Peat
With a recent low at 2246 that stop on EUR
sounds a little tight.

Not sure how you can utilise that type of
'flexible' info. If I was paying for a signal
service I would expect exact entry, SL and TP.

e.g. something like...

EUR.USD
BUY. At market (current 2285)
SL. 2220
TP. circa 2695

arco

peat
14-09-2005, 12:27 PM
yes well my thoughts are going that way a little bit too..... eg he has been calling for 2750 (was at 2500 ) ever since I got it but also saying correcting back (first to 24 , then 23, now mid 22's

saying that something might go up 250 points but first it might go down 250 points kinda seems like a bob each way.....

but I have 3 months of his info now so i will see how it goes over that entire time.


most commentary seems to be identify this 2300 zone as quite crucial in determining the medium term direction.

peat
14-09-2005, 11:07 PM
sentiment definitely changed against the USD
and is maybe now becoming the visible trend. (unless of course I see what I want to see)

arco
15-09-2005, 08:02 AM
Morning Peat

Yes a change of opinion could be taking place.
The slow drag while we wait for some upcoming action.

One hour chart is currently showing what looks
like the formation of a H & S bottom pattern.

peat
15-09-2005, 08:05 AM
well yeh but someone keeps hitting it pretty hard at the 1.2325 level !