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Impala
29-03-2006, 09:27 PM
6 monthly report due tomorrow. Feasibility Extension Programme report coming early next week. Interesting times....will the news be good enough to actually move the price noth? Positive announcements to date have had the reverse effect. The "wolf wolf" syndrome?

biker
06-04-2006, 09:50 PM
Moved it north alright Impala, about 30% since your post.Not complaining.:)

Impala
09-04-2006, 11:28 PM
As the old saying goes, "You ain't seen nothin' yet!"[8D]

biker
22-08-2007, 12:06 PM
Good to see PNA to be in the ASX 200 at last. Should move up over the next 12 months as it becomes a substantial copper and gold producer.I think it's worth a look. Topped up during the recent dip and good to see it on the rise again.

jdg
13-09-2007, 09:46 AM
i'm sure there was another PNA thread, but god knows where that got to. i noticed this in this morning's Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22408405-643,00.html

perhaps a rumour that buoyed PNA yesterday? i know very little of OXR (except they went from rags to riches in quick fashion), but geographically PNA would be a good fit for them? even if not, the picture for base metals is painted as a very good one. thought it might be of interest.

-j

Joe King
13-09-2007, 10:21 AM
JDG, well spotted. PNA has often been described as "the next OX". Takeover rumours have been bandied before, and right now would be an ideal time to pick off PNA. I have always openly stated in this forum PNA will be a $2-50 $3.00 share by Sept 2008! ...still believe it
Cheers
JK

jdg
14-09-2007, 10:41 AM
announcement out this morning. deep extension to phu kham. may further open up the mine to the north. it's deep but the grades look very good.
-j

Phar King
19-09-2007, 08:37 PM
Hey JDG. looks very good????? What about todays announcement?Throuhgput to increase by 33%......so we're looking at f'cast ann cash flows going from $180m to$255m....and check the prices the figures are based on ie gold $650 silver $8 and copper $3.15. Cannot believe this announcement hasn't excited some investors.....or are ALL the posts from Traders???

jdg
20-09-2007, 07:47 AM
phar king joins joe king, i'm pleased all the royalty like this stock. it really was excellent news. didn't excite the market? over 6 percent for the day pleases me just fine. like you, it is the profitability of the project at very low metal prices that is so attractive (that and a seemingly endless amount of ore). the original pu kham design was profitable with copper at US$1.35lb (current price US$3.50) and gold at US$450oz (current price US$7.30). out of the new design, costs to extract the metals are slashed. using the budgeted figures (and ignoring the proposed increases in throughput - that only make the story better), capital costs will be repaid in less than five years, using current prices they will be repaid in less than two. given the mine has a 12 year plus life, the former is pretty good, the latter is brilliant (and many expect copper prices to increase). moreover, 'the project is ahead of schedule and within budget' has been said so many times, one almost believes them (how many large projects like this achieve either one of those?). also, exploration isn't over and you'd be mad to think there's not more there. this has the potential to be a dream story. JK sees about 250% increase in a year. that's an ambitious call to make publicly, but i'm not betting against him and the news yesterday certainly shortened his odds.

-j

jdg
16-10-2007, 02:56 PM
really interesting price action today. up a swag on a down day. also, i note on another site that there is an article saying that Phu Bia has been halted due to adverse weather (apparently reported in a local paper). i would have thought that would be price sensitive, if true (not to mention negative). i'm happy to forward the article to anyone who wants it (i don't have a link to anything but the other - member - site).
-j

xman
17-10-2007, 11:54 PM
could you please forward the link?

jdg
18-10-2007, 10:40 AM
can't vouch for its credibility, have heard nothing more of it, and price has gone up 8 percent since seeing it. make of it what you will.
cheers,

-j

Phu Bia suspends mining operations

Phu Bia Mining Ltd has temporarily suspended its gold mining operations in Vientiane province due to heavy rainfall, at great expense to the company, according to an executive.

Company Coordinator Souvat Sysoukham said last week the rain had leached cyanide from the gold ore, making it impossible for them to continue extracting the gold. The company lacks storage facilities for the chemical like those at the Sepon mine, which is why they have had to cease operations.

“We leave the gold ore in the open so right now we have to cover it with plastic sheets,” Mr Souvat said in an interview with Vientiane Times. “The company does not have a storage tank because our primary interest is copper production, not gold.”

He reassured the public that the cyanide had not leaked into the surrounding environment because a large pond is used to contain the dangerous chemical.

Another manager at the company, who asked not to be named, said mining operations had had to cease temporarily due to poor transport conditions, as trucks were unable to negotiate the mountainous terrain in the wet conditions.

“This area is not like Sepon, which is flat. The land at Phu Bia is very hilly and trucks can't carry the gold ore from pits to the factory,” he said.

Mr Souvat said the company was losing around 19 billion kip (US$2 million) in gold sales per month, but was continuing to pay wages and other overheads.

“We haven't fired any staff and we're still paying everyone,” he said, adding that the 500 staff working at the site were carrying out maintenance until the rains ended and they could start mining again.

Mr Souvat said the company hoped to start up production again soon. He said the company faced the same problem last year and plans were in place to resolve the situation.

Phu Bia Mining Ltd is one of two Australian gold mining companies in Laos . The company began surveys of the mine site in the Phu Bia area in 1994. It built a gold processing factory in 2005 at a cost of 237 billion kip (US$25 million) and began production in 2006.

The company has produced around 1,500 kg of gold since operations began, and expects to mine for 10 to 15 years.

The company has also invested 2.2 trillion kip (US$240 million) to build a copper processing factory, which is expected to begin production in the near future.

jdg
18-10-2007, 01:51 PM
damn, forget the article. what a fine run this thing's on. anyone else watching? any guesses on why? takeover rumour?

jdg
30-10-2007, 08:59 PM
quite a bit of information in the quarterly. here are the highlights from my reading. feel free to add bits i may have missed.

although PNA have consistently said they are ahead of schedule and within budget, who really believed them? (just who completes major projects in such a way?). but, low-and-behold, the buggers look to have been telling the truth. production from Phu Khan is now set for march instead of mid year. nice work. moreover, yup you guessed it, within budget. Go figure.

4 x 10,000 tonnes of concentrate have been sold with a refining and treatment charge of < US$0.03/lb.

ore is currently being mined at 585,799 tonnes per month but this is ramping up as more diggers arrive. They expect to hit 1m per month by year’s end.

article i put here a few days ago obviously bollocks. mine never closed and gold income only getting better. gold production is up and is now exceeding the target of 3,000 oz per month.

as has been announced already, the throughput of the mine is to be increased by 33&#37; based on incredibly low estimations for the value of copper/gold/silver. payback of capital in 6 months or so.

exploration budget has been expanded to $25m – and there is a whole lot going on. As if the above isn’t enough, the exploration upside is phenomenal.

already there are encouraging results from Ban Houayxai (pre fesibility study has commenced); Phonsavon (700 metre strike length open at two sides); Pha Nai, Hoy Tum, Phu He, and Triple ‘N’.

i don’t think there could be a single nervous PNA holder after reading that report. brilliant bloody company with safe hands and huge potential.

that’s my take. over and out.

-j

info
31-10-2007, 11:09 AM
Excerpts From Today's Broker Call
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
PNA - PAN AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES LIMITED
Credit Suisse rates PNA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - The broker's downgrade reflects recent relative price movements and is not operational, as expectations for the Phu Kham project are for it to start early and come in within budget.
Earnings for 2008 have been cut by around 12% but from a low base, the impact not enough to cause the broker to change its target price.
Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $1.01 Difference:($0.17) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PNA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately - 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY07 EPS of -0.20 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is -505.00.
Market Sentiment: -1.0

jdg
31-10-2007, 11:42 AM
seems incredible to me that projected earnings can be cut when the company has recently announced it is producing more gold than expected (at record high prices) and production of the main mine has been brought forward (with copper prices near record highs). in fact, with 33&#37; greater throughput and exploration successes to date, i just can't figure this recommendation out at all. still, thanks for the posting Info, i was beginning to think i was talking to myself. i've held since early 30s and am not planning on selling before production commences (at the earliest) i think this puppy has a fair way to go yet, despite its excellent run to date.
-j

biker
31-10-2007, 02:14 PM
Excerpts From Today's Broker Call
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
PNA - PAN AUSTRALIAN RESOURCES LIMITED
Credit Suisse rates PNA as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - The broker's downgrade reflects recent relative price movements and is not operational, as expectations for the Phu Kham project are for it to start early and come in within budget.
Earnings for 2008 have been cut by around 12% but from a low base, the impact not enough to cause the broker to change its target price.
Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $1.01 Difference:($0.17) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PNA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately - 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY07 EPS of -0.20 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is -505.00.
Market Sentiment: -1.0

It would seem there are moves afoot to try and drive down the PNA share price. The spurious article quoted by jdg and now this reportedly from Credit Suisse. There seem to be plenty of buyers today willing to pay up to $1.07 (at least 8mil shares so far). May the down ramping continue because it seems to have the excellent effect of driving the price up.

jdg
31-10-2007, 06:05 PM
it seems nothing can stop this stock, biker. up another 6&#37; today on high volume. given there’s a fair bit of takeover activity within resources, I wonder if someone is accumulating. they do have a lot of shares on offer, but if someone is buying up, we should get notice shortly. either way, there’s plenty left in it in my opinion. they’ve had luck with exploration, but you just can’t fault management at all. it really is a great company.
-j

biker
31-10-2007, 08:20 PM
Yes jdg, touch wood, it does seem to be a class act.

jdg
15-11-2007, 06:19 PM
strong showing today after being dragged down by general market weakness. perhaps a little more exposed to those issues than some given copper might be vulnerable in the wake of the US housing slump. thought hard about dropping a few to lock in what have been very good profits, but i just like the PNA story too much. don't like to think i'm falling in love with a stock, but she’s just so perfect... Pu Kham, a huge project, about to come on line early and on budget. exciting exploration results damn near wherever they put the drill, and management that just does the business.
-j

jdg
15-02-2008, 02:13 PM
the general market malaise has halted PNAs run of late, but it's held up pretty well (and offered a couple of good trading opportunities). more solid results released yesterday, and start up next month. even in the current environment there's a lot to like here. everybody still in?
-j

slam
15-02-2008, 02:27 PM
Hi jdg
Yep still sitting with PNA.
Managed to get a few more on the drop

jdg
20-02-2008, 01:39 PM
it's always encouraging when a stock surges strongly on a down day. copper and gold prices heading in the right direction for PNA. and (although it's too often bandied about with regard to any number of stocks) who would be surprised if PNA was a takeover target? certainly a smooth start up at Phu Kham next month would add to this potential. it's such a good fit for OXR and they exist in that part of the world. but what ever happens, isn’t it just so nice being in a stock that has everything going in its favour.
-j

jdg
28-02-2008, 09:31 AM
i note that ZFX has stated they are now after a copper play. it has over $2b in cash to make purchases, minus the $870m it will pay for AGM (if that all proceeds as planned).

PNA must be worth a look for them. they would have to borrow very little to make the purchase. It also offers long mine life, something ZFX are after (plus exploration upside). also, PNA is in a near stage of production as AGM was when ZFX launched that bid. however, you'd think ZFX would wait for that be settled before launching another.

on the more immediate horizon, copper and gold up over night. should be another good day for PNA today.

-j

biker
29-02-2008, 08:35 PM
the general market malaise has halted PNAs run of late, but it's held up pretty well (and offered a couple of good trading opportunities). more solid results released yesterday, and start up next month. even in the current environment there's a lot to like here. everybody still in?
-j

Still in. All good.

jdg
10-03-2008, 04:59 PM
glad to see you're still here, biker. you too, slam.

although doing pretty well this year, PNA has taken a hit in the last couple of trading days, but when the market is tanking like it is, a bit of that has to rub off. nevertheless, i think there are a number of reasons for holders to feel positive.

commodities look pretty good in the near term and the copper price is very strong (although, one wonders how it will fare amidst a US recession?). most seem to be suggesting it's a good hedge, but i'm a little unsure. either way, the price, if it does drop, should maintain relatively high levels and the final investment decision for Pu Kham was made on incredibly conservative numbers: copper at $US1.35/lb (currently 3.85) and gold at $US450/oz currently $US970oz.

takeover possibilities. bit of a well worn tale, but not to be dismissed. there are many cashed up metal miners, and consolidation within the sector seems to be the current vogue. general market weakness has held back PNA and thus it must be looking rather attractive - most i'm sure would have envisaged it at higher levels than this at this stage of its development. the ZFX/OXR merger may put them out of action for a while as they sort themselves out, but there are plenty of others.

a further, and possibly the most compelling, reason to be in PNA, is the Pu Kham start up this month. re-rating? maybe, but certainly when the money starts flooding in people will be forced to take notice.

PNA has been very solid in a blood red market this year, but i would like to think this is where it begins. can't fault management at all of late. within time and under budget are rare and beautiful. i've been in since 33c (thanks for the tip, JK) and feel this ride has a fair bit to go yet.

that's my two cents worth on a monday afternoon. cheers, guys.

-j

jdg
11-03-2008, 12:21 PM
well, my 'two cents worth' of musing on monday afternoon are probably only worth a cent and a half now... PNA taking a mighty hit today on high volumes. this on the back of the company saying they are confident of increasing production and reserves. go figure.

-j

jdg
09-04-2008, 01:48 PM
well, another truly excellent announcement. seems like there's a bit of sell the fact today, but it has had a pretty good run in the last couple of weeks.

so much to like about PNA, and it's a very comfortable hold in this market. only a matter of time before it breaks out and hits new highs, i would think.

with revenues now starting to come in in earnest. i shall sit back and enjoy the ride.

-j

biker
14-04-2008, 07:49 PM
The share that keeps on giving. Up 10c to 1.18 on big volume today. Nice to see some others recognise the value!

jdg
16-04-2008, 03:31 PM
with thanks to simmo2001 from another forum - it's an update from JB Were after their site visit:
------------------

I can't post the entire report but it's very positive, they seem to have impressed the analysts. Main points:

Key Take Outs:
• Gold Operations - now a boring, steady-state operation.
• Phu Kham - commissioning status:
- Current estimates are that the full circuit will be commissioned by
end-April (no change) with 1st concentrate expected to be
dispatched from the port late May/early June.
- PNA has experienced the normal commissioning issues with the
crusher circuit now expected to be operational by ~18th April (was
1st week of April).
- To date commissioning delays have been technically relatively
minor, but have caused time delays.
- Punch lists developed as PNA takes control of the sections of the
plant that are being systematically rectified.
Earnings and Valuation Impact:
• No changes.

Investment View:
• PNA has moved from explorer/developer to producer status at a time of
high copper prices… the risks now become operational and in our view
the stock will continue to re-rate to reflect this change in risk.
• No change to our CONVICTION BUY recommendation.

We have no change to our positive view on PNA for the following reasons:
a. Phu Kham is coming into production ahead of the original schedule, within the original
budget and in the current buoyant copper price environment.
b. Excellent earnings growth.
c. Well exposed to 'the right metals' - copper and gold.
d. Still remains inexpensive on near-term multiples.

Share Price $1.18
12 Month Price Target $1.40
Expected 12M Total Return 18.6&#37;

jdg
18-04-2008, 01:46 PM
yet another great announcement from PNA. this time excellent drill results from Ban Houayxai. I do like a release that uses the term 'bonanza'. do you think they might be excited? what a great stock this is.

-j

jdg
08-05-2008, 09:04 AM
nothing new in the latest presentation, but some really good projections. the growth potential of this stock remains significant. PNA has been very good to me and there's plenty more to come.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080507/pdf/3190hsk35fjcph.pdf

-j

jdg
08-05-2008, 09:29 AM
i thought this may be on interest too - not exactly stunning i.e. china is good for metals, but it helped clarify the message in my rather simple skull. i confess to being one who has been surprised that the economic problems in the US have had a negligible (downward) affect on the price of copper. it does make you wonder what demand will be like when the US housing crisis is over. copper stocks are very low.

http://www.reuters.com/article/managerViews/idUSGRI73525320080507?sp=true

-j

jdg
21-05-2008, 03:29 PM
i do seem to do a great deal of talking to myself on this thread. PNA is a holding pattern now. Although the sp is yet to reach analysts estimates, the big rises will be dependent on discoveries and, to a lesser extent perhaps, reports that production is going well and the high cu and ag prices are filling the coffers - current prices are a very long way ahead of the feasibility numbers (which at those levels made the company attractive). i'm hoping for some more 'bonanza' intersections at Ban Houayxai and the initial resource estimate in july. by which time we'll have production reports and the sp should have maintained its steady upward climb. with growth prospects and high commodity prices, PNA remains a no-brainer.

-j

jdg
03-06-2008, 08:07 PM
hands-up who has been a little surprised by the retrace. ok, so i can't tell how many hands are in the air but mine certainly is.

i guess the big rises may be behind us (it's been a great 12 or so months), but i feel PNA has still got a bit of giving left. as it happens i'm not on my own in that thought (although i do seem to be on my own on this thread). if anybody does actually read this, here are a couple of articles that may interest you. if nobody is reading this, i'll draw pictures next time.

with thanks so 1gabriel from another site:

Pan Australian Resources (PNA): RBC Capital Markets Outperform recommendation Share price target of $1.40 Last traded at $1.065
A LIFT in its long-term price forecast for copper has meant a change in the recommendation for Pan Australian Resources by RBC, moving from sector perform to outperform. RBC's new copper price forecast is now US25c-50c per pound higher for all years while its long-term price forecast has moved US20c per pound higher to $US1.50 per pound. "As a result, we have significantly upgraded earnings forecasts for Pan Australian, raising 2008 by 23 per cent to $US92 million, 2009 by 17 per cent to $US136 million and 2010 by 21 per cent to $US148 million," RBC Sydney analysts said recently in a note to clients. "Pan Australian offers quality exposure to copper leverage and a wide open register makes it vulnerable to takeover."

and with thanks to jsxcul from another site:

DESPITE Kingsgate Consolidated’s travels in Thailand in recent times, PanAust’s confidence in the country can be simply measured by the number “seven”.
That’s the number of drill rigs the new copper-gold miner has on the ground at its Puthep copper project in north-east Thailand near the provincial centre of Loei. And with hits like the 90m at 2.6&#37; copper and 1.3gpt gold from 46m down-hole reported this week, the hive of activity is unsurprising. PanAust reported that significant +1%-zinc intercepts were also intersected in the massive sulphide interval.
“The objective of the 2008 drilling program is to define sufficient copper-gold mineral resources and ore reserves capable of supporting a conventional bulk flotation operation, similar to the company’s recently commissioned Phu Kham copper-gold operation in Laos,” PanAust said in a market statement. “The goal is to develop an operation at Puthep that would produce 50,000t of copper per annum, for a PanAust equity share of at least 30,000t of copper per annum.”
Puthep is at the pre-feasibility study stage with completion of the study scheduled for the March quarter 2009.
Asked whether PanAust had concerns or otherwise about operating in Thailand, investor relations manager Allan Ryan told HighGrade: “Earlier this year we appointed a business development manager, Thailand. The role will be responsible for developing the company’s relationships with both government and community bodies relating to PanAust’s activities in Thailand. The fact that we have seven drill rigs in operation should indicate our commitment in Thailand.”
On the market front, RBC Capital Markets made greater commitment to PanAust last week when it upgraded its assessment of the miner on the back of more positive copper price projections.
“Construction at the $US241 million Phu Kham copper-gold mine in Laos has proceeded very well,” RBC said. “The project officially opened on May 9 and first concentrate was delivered to port on May 22. Cash flow is unhedged and on our forecasts, gearing is 36% by the end of Dec 2008. Net debt is extinguished by 2010 when cash on hand builds to an impressive $US240 million. PanAust offers quality exposure to copper leverage and a wide open register makes it vulnerable to takeover. Phu Kham has been built to budget in an environment of extreme cost pressure and is significantly derisked with the start of concentrate deliveries to port and sales from June 2008.”
Another broker re-iterating its support for PanAust this week was Credit Suisse.
Meanwhile, Kingsgate and its supporters remain resolutely confident that the long-awaited lease grant needed to underpin the future of the Chatree operation is “in sight”. Major shareholders Jabre Capital Partners and UBS Nominees have both increased their stakes in the miner this month. A major re-rate of the stock is anticipated by brokers upon lease grant.


all, it seems, looks good. perhaps recent weakness is traders taking profits after production price rise? i was meant to be one of them - i bought in a year or so ago and always targeted post production to unload. however, the company has been so good (great communication, coming in before schedule and under budget, great exploration results and forward programme) that i've decided to stick tight. i think the PNA story has a great deal to go, and if the market fails to see that - i expect a cashed up prowler certainly will. i don’t see the next 12 month being as stellar as the last 12, but I think it will be a good safe ride up.

-j

slam
04-06-2008, 09:14 AM
Hi Jdg
Thought I'd reply so you don't feel like your the only one interested.
Been in for ages and happy to hold.
Times like this I have been accumulating a little more.

Ignoring the spike in Jan, we only need to worry if it drops below support line around 97c. Below this the trend has broken.

Time will tell as always, but imo this company is in good shape.
If you want some feedback on pna, pop over to ss :O)

Cheers
Slam

biker
04-06-2008, 10:57 AM
I have lightened up a bit over the last couple of months, wanting to lock in some profits but still hold, anticipating production profits and positive exploration results and the long shot of a T/O or significant cornerstone shareholder appearing.

jdg
05-06-2008, 03:31 PM
good to hear from you guys. i'm rather glad to see that i'm not just muttering to myself. another good release yesterday. i did wonder if it was a response to the sp being in reverse. if so, good on them, it shows they give a damn and it seemed to work. whatever the reason, it's good to hear that production is going smoothly and beating expectations (which is really just the norm for PNA). hope you're both making a bundle.

-j

shasta
23-07-2008, 10:42 AM
good to hear from you guys. i'm rather glad to see that i'm not just muttering to myself. another good release yesterday. i did wonder if it was a response to the sp being in reverse. if so, good on them, it shows they give a damn and it seemed to work. whatever the reason, it's good to hear that production is going smoothly and beating expectations (which is really just the norm for PNA). hope you're both making a bundle.

-j

JDG

I'm looking at PNA, as a beaten down "cheap" copper/gold producer...

Here's why...

http://www.panaust.com.au/upload/MacquariePresentation_7May08.pdf

shasta
24-07-2008, 02:31 PM
JDG

I'm looking at PNA, as a beaten down "cheap" copper/gold producer...

Here's why...

http://www.panaust.com.au/upload/MacquariePresentation_7May08.pdf

First shipment of Phu Kham Copper/Gold concentrate

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=201367

shasta
29-07-2008, 10:15 PM
First shipment of Phu Kham Copper/Gold concentrate

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=201367

PNA Quarterly out, makes for a nice read.

Undervalued, but i guess 99% of stocks are :rolleyes:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=201501

shasta
08-08-2008, 06:51 PM
PNA Quarterly out, makes for a nice read.

Undervalued, but i guess 99% of stocks are :rolleyes:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=201501

For the copperites out there ;)

Copper Gains on Speculation Price Slump to Spur Metal Demand

By Millie Munshi
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose for a second straight day on speculation a recent price slump will spur demand from China and elsewhere.
``Copper has taken a pretty big drop lately, and that brings buyers back in,'' said Ron Goodis (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ron+Goodis&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a futures-trading director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. in Closter, New Jersey.
Before today, the price plunged 20 percent from a record in May as the prospect of a slowing global economy signaled less demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.
Copper futures for September delivery rose 0.95 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $3.4433 a pound at 11:56 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the most- active contract gained as much as 1.2 percent. The metal gained 0.2 percent yesterday.
In the past five years, copper prices have quadrupled as mining companies struggled to keep up with global consumption. Futures reached the all-time high of $4.2605 on May 5. China is the world's biggest metals buyer.
``China has the potential to buy a lot of copper at the right price,'' UBS analyst John Reade (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+Reade&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) said this week.
Anglo American Plc, the world's fourth-biggest mining company, said last week that Chinese demand ``will create the potential for a sustained commodity up-cycle.''
``Unless global growth just goes away, then copper will be at higher levels,'' Michael Cuggino (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Michael+Cuggino&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who oversees about $3.8 billion as chief executive officer of Pacific Heights Asset Management, said yesterday.
Commodity Rebound
A rebound in energy costs also drove copper and other commodities higher, Edward Meir (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Edward+Meir&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an analyst at M.F. Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said in a report.
Crude oil jumped as much as 2.7 percent on renewed supply concerns. Before today, oil tumbled 19 percent from a record on July 11. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRY%3AIND) of 19 raw materials climbed as much as 0.9 percent today, snapping a five-session skid.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months gained $31, or 0.4 percent, to $7,646 a metric ton ($3.47 a pound). Before today, the price dropped 1 percent in the past 12 months.
To contact the reporter on this story: Millie Munshi (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Millie+Munshi&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net (mmunshi@bloomberg.net)
Last Updated: August 7, 2008 11:59 EDT

SEC
15-08-2008, 12:01 AM
PNA Quarterly out, makes for a nice read.

Undervalued, but i guess 99% of stocks are :rolleyes:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=201501

Bounced very hard today, probably too hard. Floor price of 60c set though. I'll wait for the price to drift again back to 60c and hopefully by that time more information on production and costs will be forthcoming.

SEC

shasta
15-08-2008, 02:55 PM
Bounced very hard today, probably too hard. Floor price of 60c set though. I'll wait for the price to drift again back to 60c and hopefully by that time more information on production and costs will be forthcoming.

SEC

Any retreat below 65c could well be worth jumping onboard, ready for the next leg up...

Like yourself i'm wanting to run thru there figures...

shasta
15-08-2008, 06:47 PM
yep, one of 4 buy targets I have now

HGO 20c
PPP 21c
PSA 48c
PAN 65c

Did you mean PNA or PAN (formerly SMY?)

airedale
15-08-2008, 07:12 PM
Hi Shasta,Copper Strike, CSE is another Aussy copper coy worth a look.
Discl: holding CSE

shasta
15-08-2008, 08:41 PM
Hi Shasta,Copper Strike, CSE is another Aussy copper coy worth a look.
Discl: holding CSE

Cheers Airedale

More to research over the weekend ;)

SEC
19-08-2008, 12:18 AM
Bounced very hard today, probably too hard. Floor price of 60c set though. I'll wait for the price to drift again back to 60c and hopefully by that time more information on production and costs will be forthcoming.

SEC

PNA provided an update today on their Phu Kham operations. Ramp-up on target and indicative cash costs of $1/lb including gold credits. Cash costs without gold credits was approx $1.15/lb, this puts it on par with Sepon as a low cost mine which should keep costs relatively low moving forward. A good start by PNA. Definitely a buy consideration now although target price is fluid depending on technicals/volatility and volumes. With volatility high I can afford to drop the target price.

SEC

shasta
20-08-2008, 06:53 PM
PNA provided an update today on their Phu Kham operations. Ramp-up on target and indicative cash costs of $1/lb including gold credits. Cash costs without gold credits was approx $1.15/lb, this puts it on par with Sepon as a low cost mine which should keep costs relatively low moving forward. A good start by PNA. Definitely a buy consideration now although target price is fluid depending on technicals/volatility and volumes. With volatility high I can afford to drop the target price.

SEC

Thanks for the update SEC, thats enough confirmation for me ;)

Here is the link re above
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202143

Large resource announced from the Gold/Silver project in Laos today.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202232

Very encouraging, PNA is looking like a decent bet over the next couple of years, so long as Copper doesnt plummet like Zinc did!

Huang Chung
20-08-2008, 07:11 PM
I put a bid in at 69c after today's announcement, but no joy in picking any shares up.

U holding Shas?

shasta
20-08-2008, 07:31 PM
I put a bid in at 69c after today's announcement, but no joy in picking any shares up.

U holding Shas?

Not yet

Like Sec i'm waiting, PNA jumped from 60.5 to 73c in a day, so ill be cheeky & wait til its under 65c or thereabouts...

brettdale
20-08-2008, 07:48 PM
Nice wee jump! I guess there will be profit takers in the next few days.

shasta
20-08-2008, 08:24 PM
PNA provided an update today on their Phu Kham operations. Ramp-up on target and indicative cash costs of $1/lb including gold credits. Cash costs without gold credits was approx $1.15/lb, this puts it on par with Sepon as a low cost mine which should keep costs relatively low moving forward. A good start by PNA. Definitely a buy consideration now although target price is fluid depending on technicals/volatility and volumes. With volatility high I can afford to drop the target price.

SEC

Sec

Just to keep the comparisons with ABY, PNA in check...

KZL have Copper cash costs of $US1.37/lb = fairly respectable :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=KZL&E=ASX&N=418083

SEC
20-08-2008, 11:46 PM
Sec

Just to keep the comparisons with ABY, PNA in check...

KZL have Copper cash costs of $US1.37/lb = fairly respectable :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=KZL&E=ASX&N=418083

That was for Mt Garnet and it was for the full year.

Thalanga currently produces over 2/3s of KZL's copper output and its cash costs were $1.29/lb for the last quarter.

Early indications are that PNA is a lower cost mine that KZL but that is not surprising given how much Aussie miners earn compared to those in Laos.

At least KZL and PNA are forthcoming with production costs. Fat chance ABY will provide this sort of information in the HY report.

SEC

shasta
22-08-2008, 04:31 PM
That was for Mt Garnet and it was for the full year.

Thalanga currently produces over 2/3s of KZL's copper output and its cash costs were $1.29/lb for the last quarter.

Early indications are that PNA is a lower cost mine that KZL but that is not surprising given how much Aussie miners earn compared to those in Laos.

At least KZL and PNA are forthcoming with production costs. Fat chance ABY will provide this sort of information in the HY report.

SEC

Sec

Looks like PNA may be about to run without us onboard (currently up 6c to 79c)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PNA&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=180&bb=&ind=MACD&ra=2

Huang Chung
22-08-2008, 07:21 PM
I wasn't going to chase so pulled my order.

It looks like this is the level the TA crowd might suggest buying around (blue line crossed the orange line on the chart above). Any TA cats like to confirm this?

shasta
22-08-2008, 07:33 PM
I wasn't going to chase so pulled my order.

It looks like this is the level the TA crowd might suggest buying around (blue line crossed the orange line on the chart above). Any TA cats like to confirm this?

HC

One of the biggest lessons ive learnt over the last 12 months...

I saw LNC gap up from 80c to 85.5c (had a 5k order in for 78c)...

LNC hit $4 in a short space of time :(

Technically i think PNA is now a buy (my chart didnt include today!)

Perhaps 75c is a good entry (rather than 65c that i had wanted),

I believe PNA will be $2 min during 2009 so long as Copper holds around $US3/lb, so i'm not too worried about a few cents either way.

Phaedrus
22-08-2008, 09:08 PM
It looks like this is the level the TA crowd might suggest buying around...
PNA was in an accelerating downtrend - price action dropped away from earlier trendlines before confirmation and they became irrelevant. All indicators etc shown below were fitted to the high of 26/6.
The chart shows 5 buy signals, listed in their firing order :-

(1) Break of the confirmed trendline (entry at 73 cents)
(2) Break of Trailing Short Stop.
(3) Uptrend confirmed (Downtrend has ended).
(4) Break of Moving Average.
(5) Momentum becomes positive (Buy signal).

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/PNA822.gif

Huang Chung
22-08-2008, 10:46 PM
Thanks Phaedrus

You know, this idea of buying at 78c, what I could have picked up at 71c the other day sure seems a crazy way of making money. :p

shasta
22-08-2008, 10:50 PM
Thanks Phaedrus

You know, this idea of buying at 78c, what I could have picked up at 71c the other day sure seems a crazy way of making money. :p

HC

The first confirmed buy signal only kicked in at 73c...

Huang Chung
22-08-2008, 11:03 PM
Digressing slightly Shasta, I noticed on another thread that you had put zinc in the diehards or uber-contrarians only baskets......

For me, zinc has bottomed, because the high cost production is coming out of the market RIGHT NOW. Copper is still travelling quite nicely, and may continue to do so, but is also the one likely to be able to fall quite a bit before there is a supply side reaction.

Just some random thoughts (but not of the well lubricated AA endorsed kind)......

shasta
22-08-2008, 11:09 PM
Digressing slightly Shasta, I noticed on another thread that you had put zinc in the diehards or uber-contrarians only baskets......

For me, zinc has bottomed, because the high cost production is coming out of the market RIGHT NOW. Copper is still travelling quite nicely, and may continue to do so, but is also the one likely to be able to fall quite a bit before there is a supply side reaction.

Just some random thoughts (but not of the well lubricated AA endorsed kind)......

Mate i appreciate your thoughts, you are way more versed in metals than i am!

I thought the general consensus was Zinc wouldnt turn until later 2009/10, as you know things change & having a few Zinc producers go under is actually going to help the price recover!

Copper is strong & may go down, i just dont see the same supply v demand problems as Zinc...

As you well know i was in PEM once upon a time...:o

shasta
25-08-2008, 02:09 PM
Mate i appreciate your thoughts, you are way more versed in metals than i am!

I thought the general consensus was Zinc wouldnt turn until later 2009/10, as you know things change & having a few Zinc producers go under is actually going to help the price recover!

Copper is strong & may go down, i just dont see the same supply v demand problems as Zinc...

As you well know i was in PEM once upon a time...:o

PNA currently up 4.5c to 83.5c :)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PNA&exchange=ASX&period=3M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=10&ma2=30&bb=Y&ind=MACD&ra=2

shasta
27-08-2008, 04:05 PM
PNA currently up 4.5c to 83.5c :)

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PNA&exchange=ASX&period=3M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=10&ma2=30&bb=Y&ind=MACD&ra=2

PNA busting out & soon to crack the 90's

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/chart/stockness/hist2/ASX/PNA/3m/line/10/30/

shasta
28-08-2008, 11:32 AM
PNA's Half year report to 30 June 2008:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202575

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202577

$38m HY (6 months) Revenue is going to increase dramatically for the FY result, as this result includes just 1 month's revenue!

The next result will show a very different picture IMHO.

Current forecasts for the FY08 are for:

30,000T of Copper, 27,000/oz Gold & 300,000/oz of Silver (works out at ~$US40m p.m)

I'm looking to accummulate PNA, as technically it's behaving itself!

jdg
28-08-2008, 11:59 AM
i was bouyed by the estimated costs of US$1/lb - and given PNA's excellent track record when it comes to estimates, i would think that would be a fairly conservative number.

the other estimate that i enjoyed was the income (after smelter charges) with copper and gold prices a little less than they are now is US$40m per month. that is some very serious income for a company of PNA's size.

worth noting too, that these estimates are obviously before the production upgrade.

-j

shasta
02-09-2008, 06:59 PM
i was bouyed by the estimated costs of US$1/lb - and given PNA's excellent track record when it comes to estimates, i would think that would be a fairly conservative number.

the other estimate that i enjoyed was the income (after smelter charges) with copper and gold prices a little less than they are now is US$40m per month. that is some very serious income for a company of PNA's size.

worth noting too, that these estimates are obviously before the production upgrade.

-j

PNA update with more impressive revenue figures...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202782

Not hard to see why this stock is my #1 target ;)

shasta
04-09-2008, 05:03 PM
PNA update with more impressive revenue figures...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202782

Not hard to see why this stock is my #1 target ;)

Ann out today, highlights the possibility of extending the life of the Phu Kham Copper-Gold deposit in Laos.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202849

shasta
09-09-2008, 04:30 PM
Ann out today, highlights the possibility of extending the life of the Phu Kham Copper-Gold deposit in Laos.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=202849

Way to go Gaz, nice 500k purchase ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203004

shasta
14-09-2008, 02:02 PM
Way to go Gaz, nice 500k purchase ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203004

For those with an interest in PNA, i have updated my FA spreadsheet to include the following:

1. Current FX rate ($US to $A, i had assumed $US=$A),

2. Increased Gold cash costs (From $US400 to $US450/oz)

3. Updated to include the current Copper, Gold & Silver prices

4. Inclusion of Tax & NPAT figures, for more accurate EPS figures.

Those genuinely interested in PNA send me your email via PM for a copy!

Another reason i like copper going forward...;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24337068-643,00.html

shasta
15-09-2008, 04:06 PM
For those with an interest in PNA, i have updated my FA spreadsheet to include the following:

1. Current FX rate ($US to $A, i had assumed $US=$A),

2. Increased Gold cash costs (From $US400 to $US450/oz)

3. Updated to include the current Copper, Gold & Silver prices

4. Inclusion of Tax & NPAT figures, for more accurate EPS figures.

Those genuinely interested in PNA send me your email via PM for a copy!

Another reason i like copper going forward...;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24337068-643,00.html

Puthep Copper project - Thailand drilling results (with 10 drill rigs!)

PNA can earn 51% of the project on completion of feasibility studies & also has an option to increase stake to 60 -70%.:cool:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203151

shasta
16-09-2008, 06:37 PM
Puthep Copper project - Thailand drilling results (with 10 drill rigs!)

PNA can earn 51% of the project on completion of feasibility studies & also has an option to increase stake to 60 -70%.:cool:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203151

PNA briefly dropped sub 60c today, breaching previous support but closed at 61c to keep it intact.

Tommorow should be interesting, to see if PNA behaves itself & bounces off it's previous support (~60.5c), or whether it fails to hold...

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PNA&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

shasta
17-09-2008, 05:35 PM
PNA briefly dropped sub 60c today, breaching previous support but closed at 61c to keep it intact.

Tommorow should be interesting, to see if PNA behaves itself & bounces off it's previous support (~60.5c), or whether it fails to hold...

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PNA&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=LINE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=90&bb=Y&ind=RSI&ra=2

PNA closed down 4c at 57c.

This breaches the previous support level, & is a concern.

PNA under 50c though is a FA dream, especially when the market sees it's revenue in the Sept quarterly.

Still i will wait for confirmation of a buy signal.

shasta
18-09-2008, 09:41 PM
PNA closed down 4c at 57c.

This breaches the previous support level, & is a concern.

PNA under 50c though is a FA dream, especially when the market sees it's revenue in the Sept quarterly.

Still i will wait for confirmation of a buy signal.

PNA still looking weak but for how long?

Gold & Silver have bounced hard & may well be set to run?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

shasta
22-09-2008, 06:07 PM
PNA still looking weak but for how long?

Gold & Silver have bounced hard & may well be set to run?

http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au24hr3day.html

Exercise of Executive options....:rolleyes: (wish i could get some @ 18c!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203463

Have adjusted my spreadsheet for the extra shares (1.4b+ :eek:)

shasta
23-09-2008, 09:00 PM
Exercise of Executive options....:rolleyes: (wish i could get some @ 18c!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203463

Have adjusted my spreadsheet for the extra shares (1.4b+ :eek:)

Good article on Copper (plus other metals), should help PNA ;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24389098-5005200,00.html

shasta
25-09-2008, 12:18 PM
Good article on Copper (plus other metals), should help PNA ;)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24389098-5005200,00.html

PNA - Presentation to Credit Suisse 2008 Global Steel & Mining Conference

Page 15 shows the forecast Copper equivalent annual production, which highlights where PNA is heading (especially as a low cost producer, ~$US1/lb)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203563

shasta
05-10-2008, 10:50 PM
PNA - Presentation to Credit Suisse 2008 Global Steel & Mining Conference

Page 15 shows the forecast Copper equivalent annual production, which highlights where PNA is heading (especially as a low cost producer, ~$US1/lb)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=203563

Copper article relevant to PNA ;).

Copper likely to rebound on rising demand from China

Copper may bounce back this week as buyers from China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, are set to return to the market after a week-long Foundation Day (October 1) holiday.

Sensing a bottoming out of base metal prices, Chinese traders are expected to boost orders to build adequate inventory to meet future demand.

Copper for delivery in three months on LME fell to $5,710 a tonne on Friday on bargain-hunting, but recovered soon to close at $5,910, a decline of 14.72 per cent or $1,000 over the week. Similarly, aluminium, nickel and zinc nosedived 6.72 per cent, 9.91 per cent and 11.17 per cent to close the week at $2,332 , $15,500 and $1,590 a tonne respectively.

On MCX, aluminium October 08 contract lost 2.73 per cent to Rs 112.05 a kg, copper November 08 contract slipped by 8.88 per cent to Rs 289.45 a kg, nickel November 08 contract dipped by 5.33 per cent to Rs 767.30 a kg.

“The Chinese demand is here to stay. Infrastructure development across the fastest-growing Asian economies is set to continue. Hence, base metals’ demand may rebound very soon,” said Ashok Mittal, an analyst at Karvy Commodities Broking.

Navneet Damani of Anand Rathi Commodities feels that the recent $700-billion bailout package of the US economy may bring some respite to the liquidity crunch in the commodity market.

As a result, funds will have enough room to invest in commodities, especially in base metals.

Amid a falling demand, especially from the discouraging US housing sector, copper is turning out to remain in surplus in 2009 from the deficit in 2007 and 2008. But it remains to be seen how Chinese traders will behave in the next few weeks.

They may wait till copper breaches the support level of $5,200, which is just $600 away from the current level. They may also start booking their orders as the red metal has slumped to $5,800 from a peak of $8,800 last May, said Damani.

Last week, base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were hit badly on the back of a heavy sell-off amid a gloomy global economic environment. Develpments from Europe were also grim and that took the US Dollar Index to a high of 80.79, pulling dollar-denominated commodities lower.

The strengthening dollar is turning base metals unattractive for holders of other currencies.

shasta
06-10-2008, 08:16 PM
Copper article relevant to PNA ;).

Copper likely to rebound on rising demand from China

Copper may bounce back this week as buyers from China, the world’s largest consumer of industrial metals, are set to return to the market after a week-long Foundation Day (October 1) holiday.

Sensing a bottoming out of base metal prices, Chinese traders are expected to boost orders to build adequate inventory to meet future demand.

Copper for delivery in three months on LME fell to $5,710 a tonne on Friday on bargain-hunting, but recovered soon to close at $5,910, a decline of 14.72 per cent or $1,000 over the week. Similarly, aluminium, nickel and zinc nosedived 6.72 per cent, 9.91 per cent and 11.17 per cent to close the week at $2,332 , $15,500 and $1,590 a tonne respectively.

On MCX, aluminium October 08 contract lost 2.73 per cent to Rs 112.05 a kg, copper November 08 contract slipped by 8.88 per cent to Rs 289.45 a kg, nickel November 08 contract dipped by 5.33 per cent to Rs 767.30 a kg.

“The Chinese demand is here to stay. Infrastructure development across the fastest-growing Asian economies is set to continue. Hence, base metals’ demand may rebound very soon,” said Ashok Mittal, an analyst at Karvy Commodities Broking.

Navneet Damani of Anand Rathi Commodities feels that the recent $700-billion bailout package of the US economy may bring some respite to the liquidity crunch in the commodity market.

As a result, funds will have enough room to invest in commodities, especially in base metals.

Amid a falling demand, especially from the discouraging US housing sector, copper is turning out to remain in surplus in 2009 from the deficit in 2007 and 2008. But it remains to be seen how Chinese traders will behave in the next few weeks.

They may wait till copper breaches the support level of $5,200, which is just $600 away from the current level. They may also start booking their orders as the red metal has slumped to $5,800 from a peak of $8,800 last May, said Damani.

Last week, base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) were hit badly on the back of a heavy sell-off amid a gloomy global economic environment. Develpments from Europe were also grim and that took the US Dollar Index to a high of 80.79, pulling dollar-denominated commodities lower.

The strengthening dollar is turning base metals unattractive for holders of other currencies.

Big drop on PNA today (down 7.5c or 13% to 49.5c) :confused:

Copper didnt drop much, nor did Gold or Silver, so what's going on?

Seems a bit of a sell down for no real reason...:confused:

PNA has debt, but already has the funds in place & doesn't need any more, plus generates approx $US35m per month in revenues :eek:

Resources are really getting it in the neck, & some quality companies are coping it unfairly IMO. (PNA, OZL, OGC & SRL have been lashed badly!)

Meanwhile updating my PNA spreadsheet for the falling $A v $US (@.7484)
shows Copper still around $A7,700 per tonne, with costs around $A3,000 per tonne still means a gross profit margin of $A4,700 x 60,000t = $A282m

PNA still looking good despite the grizzly bears ;)

shasta
07-10-2008, 09:52 PM
Big drop on PNA today (down 7.5c or 13% to 49.5c) :confused:

Copper didnt drop much, nor did Gold or Silver, so what's going on?

Seems a bit of a sell down for no real reason...:confused:

PNA has debt, but already has the funds in place & doesn't need any more, plus generates approx $US35m per month in revenues :eek:

Resources are really getting it in the neck, & some quality companies are coping it unfairly IMO. (PNA, OZL, OGC & SRL have been lashed badly!)

Meanwhile updating my PNA spreadsheet for the falling $A v $US (@.7484)
shows Copper still around $A7,700 per tonne, with costs around $A3,000 per tonne still means a gross profit margin of $A4,700 x 60,000t = $A282m

PNA still looking good despite the grizzly bears ;)

PNA dropping again to 44c, as Copper drops below $US2.60/lb, but still is around $A7,900t as the FX rate drops below 72c.

There is some good news in the Copper sector though...

If the big boys are positive about the future of Copper, then so am i

New concentrator planned for BHP's Escondida project




BHP Billiton has submitted an environmental impact study for a planned expansion of its Escondida copper joint venture in Chile.

The $US3.25 billion expansion ($4.5 billion) includes the construction of an extra concentrator plant at the mine to increase mineral sulphide processing capacity by about 175,000 tonnes a year, with the aim of maintaining metal output as the ore grade at the mine decreases.

Once necessary approvals have been received BHP (http://www.bhpbilliton.com/bb/home.jsp) (ASX: BHP) hopes to approve the expansion by the end of 2009 and start operations in the second half of 2012.

BHP has a 57.5 per cent stake in Escondida, which is the world’s biggest copper mine, alongside partners Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO)) with 30 per cent, Mitsubishi Corp with 10 per cent and the International Finance Corp, a unit of the World Bank, with 2.5 per cent.

Joe King
07-10-2008, 10:31 PM
UNBELIEVABLE!
My original entry 35c exit 110. Been watching in dismay since.
This is as close to a "blue chip" stock as you will find!
Unfortunately my capital is working elsewhere.
SO many! bargains not enough cash! what a dilemma.
Cheers
JK

shasta
07-10-2008, 10:34 PM
UNBELIEVABLE!
My original entry 35c exit 110. Been watching in dismay since.
This is as close to a "blue chip" stock as you will find!
Unfortunately my capital is working elsewhere.
SO many! bargains not enough cash! what a dilemma.
Cheers
JK

Good thing is in this market you have plenty of time...

PNA is accruing revenues approx $US35m per month...

I haven't hit the trigger yet, as it may get cheaper...

Give it another full quarter & late Jan we will see just how big a company PNA will be.

I suspect there will be a spike at the end of the month when the market sees the cash being generated...

I'll pay up a few more cents on the way back up afterwards ;)

Joe - I know you've taken a punt on ADY, good luck you'll need it!

shasta
08-10-2008, 05:11 PM
Good thing is in this market you have plenty of time...

PNA is accruing revenues approx $US35m per month...

I haven't hit the trigger yet, as it may get cheaper...

Give it another full quarter & late Jan we will see just how big a company PNA will be.

I suspect there will be a spike at the end of the month when the market sees the cash being generated...

I'll pay up a few more cents on the way back up afterwards ;)

Joe - I know you've taken a punt on ADY, good luck you'll need it!

This is getting ridiculous PNA now down to 36c (Market cap ~A518m)

I have NPAT of $A206m for FY09*, a P/E of 2.51 :eek:

* Based on today's commodity prices & the US/AUS FX rate

Mr Market might be a big grizzly bear but it's a stupid one!

Copper up slightly :confused:
Gold up slightly :confused:
Silver up slightly :confused:
$US v $A falling = good for PNA :confused:

shasta
10-10-2008, 05:10 PM
This is getting ridiculous PNA now down to 36c (Market cap ~A518m)

I have NPAT of $A206m for FY09*, a P/E of 2.51

* Based on today's commodity prices & the US/AUS FX rate

Mr Market might be a big grizzly bear but it's a stupid one!

Copper up slightly
Gold up slightly
Silver up slightly
$US v $A falling = good for PNA

PNA Ann - re Ban Houayxai

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204202

Need to update my spreadsheet :rolleyes:

I had factored in 100k Gold (ann says 100 - 130k, + 700 - 800k/oz Silver!)

In a bull market PNA would have spiked 10 - 20c on this news...:confused:

I have settled on the 5 stocks i want in on going forward & PNA is top on the pile...

A no brainer folks, really :rolleyes:

shasta
13-10-2008, 06:48 PM
PNA Ann - re Ban Houayxai

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204202

Need to update my spreadsheet :rolleyes:

I had factored in 100k Gold (ann says 100 - 130k, + 700 - 800k/oz Silver!)

In a bull market PNA would have spiked 10 - 20c on this news...:confused:

I have settled on the 5 stocks i want in on going forward & PNA is top on the pile...

A no brainer folks, really :rolleyes:

PNA exercise of exec options @ 18c :mad:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204267

Now, 1,440,067,882 shares on offer (have adjusted my spreadsheet ;))

SCHUMACHER
13-10-2008, 06:50 PM
Nice run on PNA today Shasta.....i manages to get in at 33c and sold at 36c for a quick trade today.....probably should have kept it at these levels but im recovering some of the previous weeks losses so trading and closing out my positions at end of day is my strategy at the moment......Albeit for some, longer termers, todays run was mearly a bounce from a massivly oversold position

cheers Schu

biker
13-10-2008, 07:28 PM
Topped up at 33c last week having paid about that when I first bought in, having sold blocks of the originals all the way up to about 1.22. May take a while to get back there but now carrying more than a free interest so happy to wait. J Beware still have them as a buy with a 12 month target of $1. ( which is not necessarily a good thing!)

shasta
13-10-2008, 08:22 PM
Nice run on PNA today Shasta.....i manages to get in at 33c and sold at 36c for a quick trade today.....probably should have kept it at these levels but im recovering some of the previous weeks losses so trading and closing out my positions at end of day is my strategy at the moment......Albeit for some, longer termers, todays run was mearly a bounce from a massivly oversold position

cheers Schu

Hope you sleep at night ripping out 9% profits, your braver than i :eek:

PNA closed at it's intra-day high of 37.5c

Bullish signal so long as Copper & the US don't s**t themselves overnight!

shasta
14-10-2008, 12:08 PM
Hope you sleep at night ripping out 9% profits, your braver than i :eek:

PNA closed at it's intra-day high of 37.5c

Bullish signal so long as Copper & the US don't s**t themselves overnight!

PNA - Long term contracts signed (BHP as agent)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204288

It just keeps getting better! :D

shasta
14-10-2008, 01:28 PM
PNA - Long term contracts signed (BHP as agent)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204288

It just keeps getting better! :D

Dow up 11% & so is Copper :D

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Copper prices rallied 4.5 percent on Monday, bouncing after its biggest sell-off ever as part of a general improvement in sentiment and after the world's largest copper mine declared force majeure on some deliveries.

Chile's Escondida, the world's biggest copper mine, said late on Friday it would be unable to meet its contract obligations for some copper concentrates after it was forced to shut down a mill used to pulverize rock.

"The Escondida news is very, very bullish," said Dan Smith, analyst at Standard Chartered. "On its own it counts for 8 percent of global supply."

Copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose as high as $5,015 a tonne from $4,800 at the close on Friday. At 0931 GMT, it was trading at $4,950 a tonne.

The metal, used in construction and power, fell more than 20 percent last week on concerns about a deepening recession.
Goldman Sachs, long a resolute commodity bull, turned near-term bearish on Monday, cutting its forecast for copper prices in three months to $3,500 a tonne versus an old forecast of $7,960, but predicting a recovery to $6,625 in 12 months.

biker
17-10-2008, 04:03 PM
Couldn't resist more of these at around 27c.

shasta
17-10-2008, 04:37 PM
Couldn't resist more of these at around 27c.

I'm picking if PNA gets there, 25c will be the bottom...

So long as Copper doesn't go below $US2/lb, then i expect PNA to bounce

SCHUMACHER
17-10-2008, 09:08 PM
Hi SHASTA....Traded PNA again for a net gain so its been good for me......i bought yesterday at 30c and sold at the open at 32c ...couldnt see it getting much higher than 32 today especially with gold tanking last nite....then i bought at 27c and put my sell order in at 27.5c ....which finally got filled only after it fell further to 26c mid arvo.....i have to say i was a bit surprised to see it trading at these levels but anything can happen in a volatile financial market...........

Admittedly we are in a recession whether peope want to accept it or not and its not going away for some time.....i guess its all about whether people believe the long tern fundamentals of PNA......i see they have 224 million of debt funding which is alot of tin. That does worry me a bit especially when there is substancial evidence of a global credit crisis and looming recession..............the question in most peoples minds is how long will the recession last..............

PNA is a victim of the recession as are other companies that produce base metals such as copper/ nickel etc.....and as for precious metals in PNA,s case AG and AU,the argument continues as to whetehr GOLDis such a safe haven right now......if the US dollar is low then gold is a good investment.
We have to remember that GOLD tracks Oil price so when oil gets slaughtered then consequently GOLD gets hammered as we have seen .......PNA


cheers SCHUI

SCHUMACHER
17-10-2008, 09:18 PM
IN Addition to my last post.........i would like to add that GOLD is a hedge against inflation so what does it do when there is deflation??? my thouhgts are that in a recession gold is uselesss as a hedge as a recession reduces consumer spending , creates high unemployment, reduces productivity and tightens up credit markets.....mmm thats what we are seeing now.

Gold generally has an inverse relation with the dollar as the two compete for funds. But gold tracks crude oil as the latter signals inflation that the metal negates.

What we saw this week was institutional players having margin calls against them and having to dump COMEX (paper) gold .......


Final point is that 65% of gold produced is used in retail sector ........say no more.................cheers Schu

Huang Chung
17-10-2008, 09:21 PM
Dennis Gartman pointed out on Fast Money this morning (much as I've been saying)...if gold can't get up a head of steam in this environment, when will the time be better :confused:.

He did note that inflation is well under control, so gold isn't going to be in demand as a hedge against inflation. He also said that there may be some Central Bank selling of gold reserves to help fund all the bailouts etc now happening.

shasta
17-10-2008, 09:23 PM
Hi SHASTA....Traded PNA again for a net gain so its been good for me......i bought yesterday at 30c and sold at the open at 32c ...couldnt see it getting much higher than 32 today especially with gold tanking last nite....then i bought at 27c and put my sell order in at 27.5c ....which finally got filled only after it fell further to 26c mid arvo.....i have to say i was a bit surprised to see it trading at these levels but anything can happen in a volatile financial market...........

Admittedly we are in a recession whether peope want to accept it or not and its not going away for some time.....i guess its all about whether people believe the long tern fundamentals of PNA......i see they have 224 million of debt funding which is alot of tin. That does worry me a bit especially when there is substancial evidence of a global credit crisis and looming recession..............the question in most peoples minds is how long will the recession last..............

PNA is a victim of the recession as are other companies that produce base metals such as copper/ nickel etc.....and as for precious metals in PNA,s case AG and AU,the argument continues as to whetehr GOLDis such a safe haven right now......if the US dollar is low then gold is a good investment.
We have to remember that GOLD tracks Oil price so when oil gets slaughtered then consequently GOLD gets hammered as we have seen .......PNA


cheers SCHUI

Schu

PNA has debt, BUT it's already in place, & thats the difference whereas alot of explorers & near term producers will fail trying to obtain it.

Getting credit in this environment is nigh on impossible, until the markets settle down & the US bailout filters thru the market.

PNA has around $US241m debt + a credit facility that can be drawn down (approx $50m, not too sure?).

PNA are generating $US35m per month revenue (thats $US420m per year)

So the debt will be paid off within 2 years, which is exceptional really.

I would much rather they paid off debt first & then paid dividends, & that's there intention.

I do believe over the next 3 - 6 months Gold & silver will decouple away from Oil & hit new highs during 2009 (i also think Oil is heading back over $US100/bbl, also during 2009).

PNA is the lowest cost "confirmed" Copper producer i have found, so it will survive even with Copper below $US1.80/lb, which would see most Copper producers marginal or making losses.

Copper down at $US1.50/lb would kill off the industry, so i doubt that would ever happen.

I'm picking Copper will trade between $US2 - 3/lb over the next 2 - 3 years, on the basis that nothing extraordinary happens...

Schu - PM me your email & i'll send you my PNA spreadsheet ;)

I firmly believe so long as Copper doesn't go below $US2/lb, then PNA won't go below 25c & that will be it's bottom (in a bull market PNA would be 75c+)

Zephyrus
18-10-2008, 05:40 PM
PNA is an excellent stock. I own some. You guys might also want to check out EQN.

Cheers,
Z.

shasta
18-10-2008, 06:05 PM
PNA is an excellent stock. I own some. You guys might also want to check out EQN.

Cheers,
Z.

I've got EQN on close watch, estimated production at 150,000t + Cu per year (Approx $A1b revenue :eek:) & there Uranium is more than useful...

Copper over $US3/lb & EQN will cream it, as will PNA...

I like PNA for the Gold & Silver as well as the Copper, & like PNA, it seems EQN's costs will be lower quartile (meant to be around $US1.20/lb?)

Pity Copper is currently trading around $US2.20/lb, Gold < $US800/oz, & Silver < $US10/oz at present...

SCHUMACHER
19-10-2008, 04:17 PM
Thanks Shasta. Certainly looks profitable even at the lower end of prices.....its questionable whether Gold and silver will alter dramatically from current prices thus affecting bottom line...............i see silver is back into $9,000 range and down 37% for the year whereas gold is currently down 8% for the year............Copper still holding above $2 for now..........the current spot CU price may put pressure on many other copper producers which already have a cash operating cost of $2.00l/b considering it wasnt long ago when copper was holding well at around $3.80-$4.00 range so those companies would not want to produce copper right now as they would LOSE money.........PNA therefore are at an advantage.

The information im getting out of the US is that inflation is decreasing thus putting pressure on Gold price.........they are predicting a major slowdown in comodities and construction as the housing building permits are at its lowest since 1982
They surveyed builder /construction contractors and found that only 1 out of every 7 companies were positive about future work

In theory that could put pressure on supply inventories which may push copper price back up or at worst hold at current levels......food for thought.....cheers Schu

drillfix
20-10-2008, 03:52 PM
Not looking good for this stock atm.

Is this purely because of the current price of copper?

Where will copper be in another month? better still, where will PNA be?

shasta
20-10-2008, 04:10 PM
Not looking good for this stock atm.

Is this purely because of the current price of copper?

Where will copper be in another month? better still, where will PNA be?

I still believe 25c is the floor for PNA, it will bounce from here.

Copper looks set to stay above $US2/lb & the dropping FX rate is actually helping keep the $A equivalent up. (Gross margin is still around $A4,000t)

In a week or so time when the quarterly shows the actual costs, & the amount of revenue being generated (should be north of $US100m for the 1/4) then PNA should start to run...

Even at today's prices i still have PNA with FY09 eps of 10.3 (P/E 2.42)

soulman
20-10-2008, 06:41 PM
Shasta, I think your forward PE on PNA and other stock is a wee bit too optimistic and a best case scenerio assumption.

PNA is dropping for a reason but the stock does look good value at current price. However, don't you think OZL is a better buy than PNA. The easy differentiation for the 2 coy is their cash on hand and debt level. PNA does not look good and a capital raising looks on the cards. A discounted issue will not bode well for PNA in the short to medium term.

drillfix
20-10-2008, 08:44 PM
Some excellent commentary going on here in this thead.

Both technically and fundementally.

and I Sure hope your right about the Doji AA ;)


The Down Trend Strength is very strong ADX is 29 and has a lot of scope to move further, There is a lot of momentum behind it to, The indicators are showing heavy Distribution rather than Accumulation. I would be very surprised if this didn't fall further below 25c.

On a positive note The Candle was a Doji signaling possible trend reversal... so maybe.... just maybe

AA

shasta
20-10-2008, 08:55 PM
Shasta, I think your forward PE on PNA and other stock is a wee bit too optimistic and a best case scenerio assumption.

PNA is dropping for a reason but the stock does look good value at current price. However, don't you think OZL is a better buy than PNA. The easy differentiation for the 2 coy is their cash on hand and debt level. PNA does not look good and a capital raising looks on the cards. A discounted issue will not bode well for PNA in the short to medium term.

Too optimistic?

If they meet FY09 production targets (& PNA have a good record of meeting targets/deadlines & within budget), then i've calculated my figures/spreadsheet based on today's commodity prices & using the daily FX cross rate (via Kitco metals & Findata).

My figures are somewhat conservative (being an accountant thats normal!)

I will review all my calculations when i get the Sept quarterly which is meant to contain an update on cash costs, plus i'll get a better grasp on overhead/admin costs.

What cash issue?

PNA has already got it's credit facility in place re Phu Kham ($US241m), & has a line of credit facility (not fully drawn down) it can draw on?

PNA had $9m cash in the last quarterly & during the months of July & August generated $US70m revenue.

Cash is not an issue for PNA ;)

OZL looks good, but bear in mind it's large exposure to Zinc.

OZL has 1.2b cash, & 900m debt re AGM (from it's T/O of ZFX)

OZL when Prominent Hill comes online it should fly (& i may re-enter OZL)

shasta
20-10-2008, 09:04 PM
I wouldn't recommend holding this to find out, can always buy back in when the down trend eases off a bit aye.

Why take the risk

AA

Aside from an attempt to trigger some stop losses at 24.5c, i thought PNA bounced well off 25c. :rolleyes:

The close of 27c (down just 0.005c) seemed quite positive?

drillfix
20-10-2008, 09:16 PM
I wouldn't recommend holding this to find out, can always buy back in when the down trend eases off a bit aye.

Why take the risk

AA

Too late, and its just one of those things AA

I previously thought it did ease a bit. I may as well go to the Casino and play roulette or Blackjack instead, so thats just how wacky these markets are though..:rolleyes:

shasta
20-10-2008, 09:19 PM
There was a heap volume today (if I remember correctly,I'm not in the office) which would give the doji candle more weight, but its only one day amonst many, and I believe the down ward momentum will over power it eventually if not straight away.

just my thoughts, who knows until it happens.

Ill have a look at the chart to see where the support levels lie if your interested.

AA

When you get a chance that would be greatly appreciated.

Nice to see threads where TA & FA are working together on a stock ;)

shasta
20-10-2008, 09:27 PM
Its the only way to do it, TA & FA go Hand in Hand:)

AA

I totally agree, other threads seem to lean one way or the other, or continue to debate one over the other!

TA tells me when to buy & sell, FA finds the company ;)

AMR
20-10-2008, 10:45 PM
Still a doji, the prices don't have to end up at where they start, the body just needs to be much smaller than the tails.

A lot of textbook candle formations are crap. In the Encyclopedia of Candlestick charts Bulkowski found that only 6% of candlestick formations are considered investment grade (that is above 66% success rate).

Agree with your bearish outlook, there doesn't seem to be anything bullish about this stock at the moment aside from what appears to be possibly a bullish divergence on the RSI, but that hasn't formed properly yet.

drillfix
20-10-2008, 11:41 PM
Cheers for clarifying that for me, Bulkowskis website is very interesting, I used this http://www.thepatternsite.com/studies.html to help refine my trading system and targets
AA

AA, how are you going in these current and previous markets, are you surviving ok?

or has it also been a tricky one using TA with uncertain times and surrounded madness about to make things difficult?

SCHUMACHER
21-10-2008, 08:18 AM
ABSOLUTE ADVANCE........Its the only way to operate IMO....ive been trading vigoursly for many months to lock in ANY profit as its not in our best interests to hold for weeks even months unless you want to loose money...........i usually trade daily and close out my positions each nite as the DJIA is too volatile ................ive found ive actually made more money trading the stock falling.......as an example ive traded PNA numerous times and have a win loss ratio of 80%/20% in favour of wins...........basically I wait until the stock is oversoldon the intraday hourly charts and then buy in ....when it goes up 1c or greater i sell.........thats abpout it.............yesterday i bought at 25c and sold at the close last nite.........for 2c profit.........i dont care if it goes up again for 2 days straight as i cant look that far ahead in my current trading mentality....im sure you know what im saying............good to see the DOW up 413 points overnite which should push up ASX today..........but tomorrow who knows???

lol cheers Schu

drillfix
21-10-2008, 01:33 PM
Thanks both AA and Schu.

And may I say an excellent post indeed AA, I appreciate your commentary on that.

I guess in brief, it is a more so a view from a Trader, than more so a view from an Investor.

But nonetheless, as you say caution is required all around and protecting your capital to trade another day what is important.

Anyways, sorry for going off subject like this in the PNA thread, perhaps I will start another inquisitive thread about another subject.

Cheers~!

drillfix
23-10-2008, 01:04 PM
Looks like there is no floor beneath this stock.

Again, due to the price of copper getting smashed or what but then sorry for posting the obvious.

shasta
23-10-2008, 01:22 PM
Looks like there is no floor beneath this stock.

Again, due to the price of copper getting smashed or what but then sorry for posting the obvious.

The bears have stomped right through the floors, Drillfix!

Copper is down to around $US1.86/lb last time i looked, & Gold was at $US728/oz. (I still calculate FY09 EPS of 7cps, so not all bad!), but not good short term for PNA :confused:

I must say watching my targets get cheaper & cheaper, highlights my new discipline of sticking to my system!

When this turmoil is all over i'll be like a fat kid in a candy shop :D

drillfix
23-10-2008, 01:28 PM
I must say watching my targets get cheaper & cheaper, highlights my new discipline of sticking to my system!

When this turmoil is all over i'll be like a fat kid in a candy shop :D

Ive got a new system now Shasta, and its called Dont buy the frigging things in the first place. ;)

Problem with this turmoil is that nobody seems to exactly know when its going to end. :rolleyes:

shasta
23-10-2008, 01:52 PM
Ive got a new system now Shasta, and its called Dont buy the frigging things in the first place. ;)

Problem with this turmoil is that nobody seems to exactly know when its going to end. :rolleyes:

If PNA drops another 20c (down to just 2c) i'll form a consortium to buy the company ...:eek:

PNA should track the price of copper closely, & thats the main reason for the weakness, of course the DOW & general market conditions are at the mercy of the grizzlies...

SCHUMACHER
23-10-2008, 02:14 PM
Just bought back in at 22c today...please dont ask why but its one of my buy in level.....others should not follow my buy at 22c as it works for me....or i should say it may work for me....lol...copper still in demand

Copper price fundamentals look positive - Norddeutsche
Europe's biggest copper smelter reckons that good fundamentals suggest that the copper market should show strength despite even at lower demand levels

Posted: Wednesday , 22 Oct 2008

HANOVER, Germany, (Reuters) -

Norddeutsche Affinerie (NA) (NAFG.DE) expects a global copper shortage to keep business conditions good despite the financial crisis, Europe's biggest copper smelter said on Wednesday.

"Copper production remains a weak point in market supply even at lower levels of demand," it said, noting that strikes and technical problems meant too little of the metal was being produced.

"The copper market features fundamental data that support prices despite declining demand," it added, saying a price drop of more than a third in recent weeks was exaggerated.

Cooper demand is set to rise 5 percent in China next year and by 2 percent in Europe and the United States, it said.

SCHUMACHER
23-10-2008, 02:25 PM
ABSOLUT ly......but right now im waiting for any bounce..........one thing for sure AA is that PNA has a knack of bouncing hard and fast..............i havent looked at the fighres yet but it must be trading close to its NTA backing at 22c .....if not well below it???

cheers SCHU

SCHUMACHER
23-10-2008, 02:27 PM
I also believe that the big seller sitting at 23c is purely there for the purpose of capping the price until he/she gets filled....thats one theory.....im sure if she hits 23c again taday they may disappear

shasta
23-10-2008, 02:53 PM
I also believe that the big seller sitting at 23c is purely there for the purpose of capping the price until he/she gets filled....thats one theory.....im sure if she hits 23c again taday they may disappear

Copper article related to PNA...:( (Nb, I'm adjusting my figures daily)

Copper Drops to Lowest in Almost Three Years as Demand Wanes

By Millie Munshi
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg)

Copper prices tumbled to the lowest in almost three years as a global economic slump reduces consumption of the metal used in pipes and wires.

Equities slid in the U.S., Asia and Europe, and commodities fell on mounting concern that the world's economy has tilted into a recession. Copper has plunged 14 percent this week. Global production outpaced demand by 65,000 metric tons in July, the International Copper Study Group said on Oct. 20.

``Across the board, every area you look at is weak, and copper is not going to be immune from that,'' said William O'Neill (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=William%0AO%26%2339%3BNeill&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``It all relates back to the global credit crisis and the prospect of a global recession. I don't see any reason to come in and buy copper or any commodity now.''

Copper futures for December delivery fell 14.15 cents, or 7.1 percent, to $1.8655 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the price touched $1.823, the lowest for a most-active contract since Nov. 23, 2005.

The metal has dropped 35 percent in October, heading for the biggest monthly decline on record. Copper began trading on the Comex on July 29, 1988, when it settled at 90.6 cents a pound, according to data from the exchange.

``Copper has just gotten hammered and it doesn't show any signs of abating,'' O'Neill said. The metal could drop to as low as $1.75 before the end of the year, he said. `Enveloped in Fear'

Traders ``the world over are enveloped in fear of the economy,'' Alex Heath (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Alex+Heath&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), the London-based head of industrial- metals trading at RBC Capital Markets, said today in a report. ``Fear will hold you back.''

Copper has plummeted 56 percent from a record $4.2605 on May 5. Slowing economies in China and the U.S., the world's two biggest consumers of the metal, will keep driving down prices, Walter `Bucky' Hellwig (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Walter+%60Bucky%26%2339%3B+Hellwig&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), who manages $30 billion at Morgan Asset Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said yesterday.

``The whole commodity story is tied to global growth and as long as the perception is out there that the world economy is going to decline, it will be an uphill struggle for copper and all commodities,'' Hellwig said.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, said today that ``uncertainty'' about commodity demand in China will persist after its economy expanded at the slowest pace in five years in the past quarter. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. said yesterday it will delay some expansion projects until market conditions improve.

A stronger U.S. currency is also weighing on copper, RBC's Heath said. Commodities, mostly traded in dollars, usually move in the opposite direction of the currency as traders use raw materials to hedge against inflation.

The dollar gained as much as 2.3 percent today against a basket of six major currencies, reaching the highest since Nov. 6, 2006.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months dropped $343, or 7.6 percent, to $4,155 a metric ton ($1.88 a pound).

drillfix
23-10-2008, 02:58 PM
I also believe that the big seller sitting at 23c is purely there for the purpose of capping the price until he/she gets filled....thats one theory.....im sure if she hits 23c again taday they may disappear

SCHU, AA,

If you dont mind sharing, what proggie to do you use for your charting, scanning, pluggins, RT data etc etc?

SCHUMACHER
23-10-2008, 03:04 PM
Theres certainly plenty of information out there Shasta...........the question is who do you believe.....??

ive read articles like the one you just posted that suggest copper is not fundamentally strong or adversly in demand and then it flips.............look at the oil crisis a few months back..................when oil was trading around 136 barrel crude.....all the alternative fuel comapnies were on the band waggon.......now that oil has retreated all those alternative fuel companies have retractred from expenditure in their chosen field....why?? because they cant get funding but mainly due to oil plummeting.....oil needs to be trading around $100 barrel levels to justify spending millions on alternative fuel projects ........

cheers and good luck SCHU

drillfix
23-10-2008, 03:12 PM
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/

Download for free, scanner built in.

Subscription is good value once trail runs out
AA

Cheers AA, my subscription already run out and I was gonna make another one with another email...lol

Problem for me is that I take 8 panadine forte' and valium everyday so sometimes reading and charting is awkward for me.

I also used Egoli ProCharts which is Free and Realtime (I think), its pretty handy stuff, but I dont use that now.

Check it out:
http://www.egoli.com.au/clientservices/documents/images/procharts/procharts.htm

Problem is, watching is getting boring, no money to play with as i have nearly lost Lock Stock and barrel.

shasta
23-10-2008, 03:23 PM
Theres certainly plenty of information out there Shasta...........the question is who do you believe.....??

ive read articles like the one you just posted that suggest copper is not fundamentally strong or adversly in demand and then it flips.............look at the oil crisis a few months back..................when oil was trading around 136 barrel crude.....all the alternative fuel comapnies were on the band waggon.......now that oil has retreated all those alternative fuel companies have retractred from expenditure in their chosen field....why?? because they cant get funding but mainly due to oil plummeting.....oil needs to be trading around $100 barrel levels to justify spending millions on alternative fuel projects ........

cheers and good luck SCHU

Well Copper will end up like Zinc @ $US1.5o/lb & supply will reduce, so that should be the absolute bottom IMO.

Copper still looks good mid - long term, but i always knew there would be some short term weakness, as copper isn't immune to the meltdown, all the metals have suffered.

China is still growing at 9% a year, so demand may have slowed, but as for dropping off?

Naw, a short term knee jerk reaction & i expect a bounce back over $2/lb very soon.

SCHUMACHER
23-10-2008, 03:36 PM
SHASTA....my thoughts are that alot of the current copper producers will be loosing money now that its trading under $2....however PNA can keep their head above water at $1.00 l/b prodiction cost....this still gives them a good margin even at $1.80 l/b........i just wonder which companies will shut shop for a while and go on a caretaker approach until copper improves....i suspect many are breaking even at $2-$2.50 that came on line 12 months to 2 years ago?? The low copper price may also put pressure on supply as mining companies cant produce for a profit so why bother mining the stuff???


going to be a shaky ride......lets see if PNA can still be profitable in such a volatile metals market............cheers SCHU

shasta
23-10-2008, 03:47 PM
SHASTA....my thoughts are that alot of the current copper producers will be loosing money now that its trading under $2....however PNA can keep their head above water at $1.00 l/b prodiction cost....this still gives them a good margin even at $1.80 l/b........i just wonder which companies will shut shop for a while and go on a caretaker approach until copper improves....i suspect many are breaking even at $2-$2.50 that came on line 12 months to 2 years ago?? The low copper price may also put pressure on supply as mining companies cant produce for a profit so why bother mining the stuff???


going to be a shaky ride......lets see if PNA can still be profitable in such a volatile metals market............cheers SCHU

ABY will be screwed, SRL/KZL are marginal, OZL & EQN will be reviewing things.

PNA & CUO should weather the storm.

Huang Chung
23-10-2008, 07:14 PM
I've been saying for a while that copper still has room to fall, where as zinc is already below production costs for many miners and production is already being shut down. We haven't seen that in copper yet.

As I see it, if the cu price tanks,the junior copper companies could be in as much, if not more pain than the junior zinc companies for two reasons:

1. Established copper miners have been raking it in and are probably better positioned to weather the storm compared to established zinc miners, who have had to deal with a faltering zinc price for some time#.

2. Copper is the play stuff of the big boys, who are so well equipped to ride out a prolonged downtrend in the cu price. Newer copper producers probably haven't got all that cash in the kitty, and, moreover, could still be carrying a stack of debt (a la PNA), and thus maybe not so well positioned.

(# Of course, a lot of base metals producers have pollymetalic operations, so have exposure to both cu and zn)

Having said that, I did put in a low ball bid of 19c before the market opened today, hoping for a quick trade, but it opened higher and just slowly wilted throughout the day, hence I pulled the order.

drillfix
23-10-2008, 09:09 PM
I think its even more than the falling price of copper.

There appears to be a Mass Exodus from Base Metals full stop, or so it seems :rolleyes:

Some pretty relentless selling going on and it dont look like its stopping~!

shasta
23-10-2008, 09:26 PM
I think its even more than the falling price of copper.

There appears to be a Mass Exodus from Base Metals full stop, or so it seems :rolleyes:

Some pretty relentless selling going on and it dont look like its stopping~!

PNA may be facing some margin calls, & was being shorted before they stopped it. (Not naked shorting that i know of)

When does that come back?

drillfix
23-10-2008, 09:41 PM
PNA may be facing some margin calls, & was being shorted before they stopped it. (Not naked shorting that i know of)

When does that come back?

Margin calls I would say would be contributing to this dive. But then its relentless and folk, insto's, and not everybody has got margin.

Don't think it is shorting, but to my knowledge the shorting ban is or has been extended. (I think I read that somewhere)

Huang Chung
23-10-2008, 09:41 PM
I think its even more than the falling price of copper.

There appears to be a Mass Exodus from Base Metals full stop, or so it seems :rolleyes:

Some pretty relentless selling going on and it dont look like its stopping~!


Wouldn't be surprised to see a slingsot back up if buyers feel that supply is threatened by production being shut down. Overreactions seem to be the norm these days.

shasta
23-10-2008, 09:44 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see a slingsot back up if buyers feel that supply is threatened by production being shut down. Overreactions seem to be the norm these days.

PNA was valued over $A1b before it was in production & now it's earning over $US30m per month the market cap has been cut by 2/3rds. :eek:

Markets are irrational & overshoot the mark both ways! :rolleyes:

drillfix
23-10-2008, 09:48 PM
Wouldn't be surprised to see a slingsot back up if buyers feel that supply is threatened by production being shut down. Overreactions seem to be the norm these days.

I would agree there Huang.

After all, complete logic dictates that if prices fall so low that it is not worth digging out of the ground then there "Eventually" becomes a supply problem or the less stock of it, thus Demand, therefore increased prices (again).

World recession still means people must, eat, sleep, think, walk, talk, have kids and consume or amuse themselves in one way or another.

shasta
23-10-2008, 09:50 PM
I would agree there Huang.

After all, complete logic dictates that if prices fall so low that it is not worth digging out of the ground then there "Eventually" becomes a supply problem or the less stock of it, thus Demand, therefore increased prices (again).

World recession still means people must, eat, sleep, think, walk, talk, have kids and consume or amuse themselves in one way or another.

Is India & China going to stop building?

Isn't Copper used in building?

I doubt they will stop construction half way through!

shasta
24-10-2008, 12:42 PM
by building, you mean housing? commercial offices?


I read 40-45% of copper goes to power generation, ie wire

cant see that stopping soon in the BRICs

PNA - Sept Quarterly - CONFIRMATION of $US1/lb costs :eek:;):)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=204685

Wow, cashflows look good, although i see a timing issue there in early October that would have made things even better this quarter.

Dec Quarter forecast:

25,000T Cu, 30,000/oz Au & 180,000/oz Ag nice :cool:

drillfix
24-10-2008, 01:28 PM
Good post Shasta.

However, it seems that the sellers just don't care or cant read, or basically are not interested.

Stop Losses, Margin Calls, Whatever, it doesnt seem to matter.

shasta
24-10-2008, 02:41 PM
Good post Shasta.

However, it seems that the sellers just don't care or cant read, or basically are not interested.

Stop Losses, Margin Calls, Whatever, it doesnt seem to matter.

I've come to the conclusion in this bear market...

Yogi might have been "smarter than the average bear", but most of them are just plain stupid :D

PNA is a steal at these prices, Copper will stablise, the sun will shine & so will PNA's gold :cool:

Those with a long term view will do very nicely out of this, & i shall be joining the party very soon...

drillfix
24-10-2008, 02:49 PM
Those with a long term view will do very nicely out of this, & i shall be joining the party very soon...

Shasta, LOL

You mean you do all this nice and detailed commentary and you currently dont hold? Huh?:eek:

shasta
24-10-2008, 02:58 PM
Shasta, LOL

You mean you do all this nice and detailed commentary and you currently dont hold? Huh?:eek:

I'm only holding URAO.

When the credit crunch started i sold out of all margin stocks & any with debt.

When everything was getting smashed i bailed out of the rest.

I'm enjoying watching all the carnage, & waiting for the upturn.

I'm still interested in certain stocks & posting about them, hence the watchlist :)

Would you rather i didn't post & kept the gems to myself :D

drillfix
24-10-2008, 03:08 PM
When everything was getting smashed i bailed out of the rest.

I'm enjoying watching all the carnage, & waiting for the upturn.


I see, hmmmm, it looks like I am now part of that carnage.

My fault, not yours.



I'm still interested in certain stocks & posting about them, hence the watchlist :)

Would you rather i didn't post & kept the gems to myself :D

Shasta, I appreciate your picks and commentary, so I would rather you still post.

shasta
24-10-2008, 04:05 PM
I see, hmmmm, it looks like I am now part of that carnage.

My fault, not yours.




Shasta, I appreciate your picks and commentary, so I would rather you still post.

I was very much tongue in check there. :p

I see that idiot TC-DRC is misleading everyone on H/C...

How you can extract negatives from that stunning quarterly is beyond me.

You stick in this Drillfix, & you will make some serious coin.

BHP is responsible for selling PNA's copper to the Chinese Smelters, & could well be sniffing around, they want into Laos...

PNA in 2014 with over 150,000t of Cu will have revenues > $US1b, so whilst not big enough just yet, it has enough upside in its exploration targets to have the big players running the ruler...

Maybe OZL would entertain PNA?

I would hope not, i wanna see companies like PNA & OEL grow into $Ab companies

drillfix
24-10-2008, 05:22 PM
You stick in this Drillfix, & you will make some serious coin.


Shasta, if this stock gets to 15 cents I will be down 50%.

I know I am a fkn idiot who takes alot of Panadine and I am slow as a snail in thinking, but this stock is getting more flogged that a dead Kangaroo laying flat out on the nullarbor plain, if you get my drift.

I know there are alot of other stocks out there getting the same treatment.

But as others have said, this selling is Relentless and it appears NOT to be stopping regardless of what a company HAS, WANTS, or IS.

Seeing value on paper in a market like this is like reading newspapers that was printed by a guy who has taken Zillions of Magic Mushrooms.

Very Disappointing indeed.

Maybe I am better off being dead. But then I cant kill Kate Hobbs and the Board so I guess I will have to stick around for a while longer to actually see what they mean when they say they are TRYING.

soulman
24-10-2008, 05:36 PM
Drillly, it's just not you getting flogged. Anyone bought anything recently are getting flogged with the exception of a few like QGC or ORG to a lesser extent.

Even the astute investor like Mark get to AOE yesterday (were you an insider Mark?)

It seems timing is hard in this environment so long-term is the key.

According to AA chart, 18 cents seems to be the support area so you are right at it now.

shasta
24-10-2008, 05:41 PM
Shasta, if this stock gets to 15 cents I will be down 50%.

I know I am a fkn idiot who takes alot of Panadine and I am slow as a snail in thinking, but this stock is getting more flogged that a dead Kangaroo laying flat out on the nullarbor plain, if you get my drift.

I know there are alot of other stocks out there getting the same treatment.

But as others have said, this selling is Relentless and it appears NOT to be stopping regardless of what a company HAS, WANTS, or IS.

Seeing value on paper in a market like this is like reading newspapers that was printed by a guy who has taken Zillions of Magic Mushrooms.

Very Disappointing indeed.

Maybe I am better off being dead. But then I cant kill Kate Hobbs and the Board so I guess I will have to stick around for a while longer to actually see what they mean when they say they are TRYING.

Drillfix

Mate the bears are stupid & have overshot the mark, people keep thinking China will come thru, but are forgetting about the new world order which is BRIC.

Demand has slowed a little bit (China's growth has plummeted to, wait for it... 9%, still extremely healthy by world standards!)

My spreadsheet clearly illustrates where PNA is heading, but it will take time to get back to $1 plus, & the price of Copper is still the main driver.

I am bullish on Copper medium term, largely because BHP & RIO are, they seem to know a thing or two about Copper! (What i know about Copper would fill a 10c coin if that!)

See the URA thread for my update re Kate.

SCHUMACHER
24-10-2008, 07:29 PM
sold out of PNA today at 21.5 after buying at 22c yesterday....took a mimimal few dollars loss to the market Shorters but managed to get back in at todays close.............copper is certainly down to very low levels now, hence the current price of PNA as its the majority of their revenue....then there is THE PRESCIOUS METALS (GOLD AND SILVER ) taking a beating also.........not much to smile about ATM.....PNA will survive at low copper prices but wont make much money in the short term to repay debt which is the major problem right now....if there is no demand for copper in the market place it will be a slow grind,which really puts their bottom line under pressure.........todays report was in line with expectations ..............sad to see PNA back into the teens ....its price has retracted over 3 years (back to 2005)


I dont know whetehr my re entry point at todays close was the bottom but i can only but try to pick the bounce ......unless it becomes a dead cat bounce.....haha

cheers SCHU

shasta
24-10-2008, 10:59 PM
sold out of PNA today at 21.5 after buying at 22c yesterday....took a mimimal few dollars loss to the market Shorters but managed to get back in at todays close.............copper is certainly down to very low levels now, hence the current price of PNA as its the majority of their revenue....then there is THE PRESCIOUS METALS (GOLD AND SILVER ) taking a beating also.........not much to smile about ATM.....PNA will survive at low copper prices but wont make much money in the short term to repay debt which is the major problem right now....if there is no demand for copper in the market place it will be a slow grind,which really puts their bottom line under pressure.........todays report was in line with expectations ..............sad to see PNA back into the teens ....its price has retracted over 3 years (back to 2005)


I dont know whetehr my re entry point at todays close was the bottom but i can only but try to pick the bounce ......unless it becomes a dead cat bounce.....haha

cheers SCHU

First time i've ever been suspended from Hotcopper & it only confirms the fact they have patsy's paid to ramp/downramp companies...

Dub saw fit to suspense me but not Deidre or TC-DRC both of who have posted incorrect information...

Posters should know as full declaration Share Trader is the only independent forum that does not accept scrip from any companies to promote.

In fact no one on this forum is paid to promote anything or any stock.

When i have sat out my 2 day suspension i will report H/C to ASIC :D

Huang Chung
24-10-2008, 11:39 PM
Having said that, I did put in a low ball bid of 19c before the market opened today, hoping for a quick trade, but it opened higher and just slowly wilted throughout the day, hence I pulled the order.

Yesterday's low ball price now has sellers queued up looking for a buyer. I'm no technician, but PNA just seems to be in a one way slow grind downwards. Copper is the one base metal that is still generally priced higher than the cost of production, so to my way of thinking, still probably has the most capacity to fall before production starts to get shut down.

shasta
24-10-2008, 11:40 PM
Yesterday's low ball price now has sellers queued up looking for a buyer. I'm no technician, but PNA just seems to be in a one way slow grind downwards. Copper is the one base metal that is still generally priced higher than the cost of production, so to my way of thinking, still probably has the most capacility to fall before production starts to get shut down.

Are you an undertaker HC, or just just morbid onlooker :D

Huang Chung
24-10-2008, 11:46 PM
Hi Shas...

I was only thinking to myself how the tone of so many S/T posters has been so downbeat over the last couple of days...and there I am joining the crowd and not even realising it :(.

Maybe I'm just lashing out cause Tricha keeps sinking the boot into zinc and Prairie Downs :D.

shasta
26-10-2008, 06:57 PM
Hi Shas...

I was only thinking to myself how the tone of so many S/T posters has been so downbeat over the last couple of days...and there I am joining the crowd and not even realising it :(.

Maybe I'm just lashing out cause Tricha keeps sinking the boot into zinc and Prairie Downs :D.

Wait til your purchase of PDZ, becomes a public one sided Phaedrus smart arse TA ramp...

I had that with ADY, pity the reasoning was so pathetically one sided & only the truly gullible follow such rubbish...

PNA will recover when the price of Copper stops it's freefall...

As for Zinc, well it will have it's day in the sun again, & when it does i'll be buying OZL

Huang Chung
26-10-2008, 07:01 PM
What are your thoughts on Ni at the moment Shasta?

shasta
26-10-2008, 07:04 PM
What are your thoughts on Ni at the moment Shasta?

I'm not a Nickel fan, so does that say it all?

I like MCR if Nickel turns, appears well managed & shareholder friendly.

Zephyrus
27-10-2008, 09:56 AM
I'd go for IGO in the nickel arena purely because they have lower production & development costs than MCR, plus more money in the bank. Having said that, MCR is a very well managed company & good management is a must in these uncertain times.

WSA is another nickel stock worth looking at purely due to it's low operating costs & huge resources. They don't have cash in the bank like the other 2 though.

As for copper.

It's been written that BHP is not going to reduce production of copper & other resources. In fact they will increase production. If this happens with all the majors, then we can expect the medium & even lower cost operations outside the majors to shut down as copper prices keep trending down (due to oversupply). BHP & the like can extract copper for an average price of around US$0.80 per pound, so they won't care if copper goes down to US$1 per pound. In fact, they will relish the fact that smaller producers will be going bankrupt because that will put them in a stronger position to benefit from the enevitable bounce in commodities in a year or 3's time.

PNA will not be able to survive at US$1 per pound as they have other costs on top of that, including interest payable & admin costs.

Just a thought, not a down ramp.

Cheers,
Z.

SCHUMACHER
27-10-2008, 12:19 PM
nickel rally long gone fellas....its the here and now you need to worry about.....i rememebr holding AGM and selling at $1.00...thank god i did that.....otherwise AGM would be trading at 20c if that....lol

PNA.,...Gold recovered over the weekend ...back up to $737

bought PNA today at 16.5c ....why im not too sure but hoping it bounces even though copper is way down.....nothing looks good at the moment......hope you fellas are enjoying your labour day today :-)

cheers

soulman
27-10-2008, 05:55 PM
I'd go for IGO in the nickel arena purely because they have lower production & development costs than MCR, plus more money in the bank. Having said that, MCR is a very well managed company & good management is a must in these uncertain times.

WSA is another nickel stock worth looking at purely due to it's low operating costs & huge resources. They don't have cash in the bank like the other 2 though.

As for copper.

It's been written that BHP is not going to reduce production of copper & other resources. In fact they will increase production. If this happens with all the majors, then we can expect the medium & even lower cost operations outside the majors to shut down as copper prices keep trending down (due to oversupply). BHP & the like can extract copper for an average price of around US$0.80 per pound, so they won't care if copper goes down to US$1 per pound. In fact, they will relish the fact that smaller producers will be going bankrupt because that will put them in a stronger position to benefit from the enevitable bounce in commodities in a year or 3's time.

PNA will not be able to survive at US$1 per pound as they have other costs on top of that, including interest payable & admin costs.

Just a thought, not a down ramp.

Cheers,
Z.

WSA announced an on-market buy-back last Friday. It seems they are keen on their shares even though they might have to borrow some dough for the purchase.

drillfix
27-10-2008, 11:13 PM
bought PNA today at 16.5c ....why im not too sure but hoping it bounces even though copper is way down.....nothing looks good at the moment

You probably got mine SHU,

Im sick of this sht , took a substancial loss on this one.

Not gonna buy anything ATM

shasta
28-10-2008, 09:09 AM
You probably got mine SHU,

Im sick of this sht , took a substancial loss on this one.

Not gonna buy anything ATM

Drillfix

Tell me you didn't sell? :confused:

Good housing numbers out of the US in the weekend, & Copper up 14c to $US1.84/lb...

PNA should rebound today, & yesterdays closing action was quite positive!

I have this horrible feeling you sold out close to the bottom :(

drillfix
28-10-2008, 01:10 PM
Drillfix

Tell me you didn't sell? :confused:

Good housing numbers out of the US in the weekend, & Copper up 14c to $US1.84/lb...

PNA should rebound today, & yesterdays closing action was quite positive!

I have this horrible feeling you sold out close to the bottom :(


Yes Shasta, I sold , because I have lost faith in everything in times like this. :confused:

And of course, rebounding it is.

The bottom, who honestly does know what coppers or any base metals are going to do, Im just sick of losing that I may as well just not play anymore.

shasta
28-10-2008, 01:22 PM
Yes Shasta, I sold , because I have lost faith in everything in times like this. :confused:

And of course, rebounding it is.

The bottom, who honestly does know what coppers or any base metals are going to do, Im just sick of losing that I may as well just not play anymore.

Fair enough, is it the time to be fearful or brave?

I personally think Copper bottomed at $US1.70/lb, or else many producers will go under, & thus reducing supply & causing the price to increase, as demand for Copper is still meant to grow at approx 4% p.a

I don't blame anyone for watching all this unfold, i see ADY currently at 2.3/2.4c & think thank god i took enough profits at 63c to offset selling the last parcel at a decent loss...

SCHUMACHER
28-10-2008, 04:44 PM
well guys ...i sold at 20.5c as i thought 5k profit for 24 hours work was too good to steer down the barrel at and not take it!!...sorry to hear you sold DRILLFIX....Iknow its frustrating at times but patience is a virtue in times like these......CHEERS SCHU

drillfix
28-10-2008, 04:56 PM
well guys ...i sold at 20.5c as i thought 5k profit for 24 hours work was too good to steer down the barrel at and not take it!!...sorry to hear you sold DRILLFIX....Iknow its frustrating at times but patience is a virtue in times like these......CHEERS SCHU


Good for you SHU, Im glad somebody is making some money and yes very pissed off that I am not an ON THE BALL type of guy due to medication.

Anyways, you need money to make it and its now Money that I Dont have and I am now left with little to try again.

Keep up the good work.

SCHUMACHER
28-10-2008, 05:21 PM
DRILLFIX Mate....i will take what i can get as im down 25% on my initial capital for 2008......so picking up 5k in one day ...just makes me feel better.....lol ..........

as its all about confidence, and im sure many of us on this thread thought we were invincible last year (2007) ....there was so much money made last year and im afraid it was 2008 that was the year to be out of the market.............last year i made 69% on my cash so basically i gave back 25% still giving me a profit of 44% .....but i guess what is annoying , is when we all spend many hours trying to improve our net worth, and inside 1 year it dissipates so quickly........its all about preserving your wealth , thus staying out of the market can be just as rewarding when there is so much turmoil...........its the mums and dads that know very little about the markets that I feel sorry for.........cheers and try not to beat yourself up...............cheers SCHU

shasta
28-10-2008, 10:08 PM
DRILLFIX Mate....i will take what i can get as im down 25% on my initial capital for 2008......so picking up 5k in one day ...just makes me feel better.....lol ..........

as its all about confidence, and im sure many of us on this thread thought we were invincible last year (2007) ....there was so much money made last year and im afraid it was 2008 that was the year to be out of the market.............last year i made 69% on my cash so basically i gave back 25% still giving me a profit of 44% .....but i guess what is annoying , is when we all spend many hours trying to improve our net worth, and inside 1 year it dissipates so quickly........its all about preserving your wealth , thus staying out of the market can be just as rewarding when there is so much turmoil...........its the mums and dads that know very little about the markets that I feel sorry for.........cheers and try not to beat yourself up...............cheers SCHU

Have adjusted my PNA spreasheet to calculate the gross profit margin in $A. (a quick calc, easy to update ;))

Currently this works out at $A3,000t, & with PNA forecasting 60,000t FY09, you can see the potential Gross Profit Margin before expenses.

Current Gold & Silver prices negate any benefit from lower cash costs, due to the increased assumptions (Cu = $US1/lb @ $US720/oz Au, & $US12/oz Ag)

shasta
30-10-2008, 06:32 PM
PNA was down to 18c

well what can you say WTF:eek:

crazy times

Copper up 14% to $US2.11/lb & PNA up to 25c, nice volume too ;)

Quick Calc update, Gross Profit Margin per ton = ~$A3,500t

shasta
31-10-2008, 11:19 PM
Copper up 14% to $US2.11/lb & PNA up to 25c, nice volume too ;)

Quick Calc update, Gross Profit Margin per ton = ~$A3,500t

Wow, Copper drops to just under $US1.80/lb :eek:

PNA quick calc gross profit margin = $A2,651t

Just shows how leveraged to the price of Copper PNA now is as a producer...

shasta
02-11-2008, 05:22 PM
Wow, Copper drops to just under $US1.80/lb :eek:

PNA quick calc gross profit margin = $A2,651t

Just shows how leveraged to the price of Copper PNA now is as a producer...

Update for the overnight changes...

DOW >100+ :)

Copper up to $US1.8930/lb - equates to a gross profit margin of $A2,940t

Should be an up day for PNA tomorrow (currently 22c) ;)

shasta
06-11-2008, 07:32 PM
Update for the overnight changes...

DOW >100+ :)

Copper up to $US1.8930/lb - equates to a gross profit margin of $A2,940t

Should be an up day for PNA tomorrow (currently 22c) ;)

PNA drops back to 22c...

Copper still just a touch under $US1.80/lb

I still calculate a gross profit margin of $A2,584t

My figures FY09 = EPS @ 5.1c, & a P/E of 4.3 (based on current prices)

Am looking for Copper to break thru $US2/lb & hold it, before buying into PNA.

Copper is a hard commodity to read!

SCHUMACHER
07-11-2008, 07:37 AM
SHASTA ....Copper is under pressure due to inventories well up .If the cartel would only put the squeeze on suppply then we will see higher copper prices....lol...........we will have to be patient and wait for the global market to recover which i suspect may be well into the new year............my guess is that PNA is probably below its NTA so its a waiting game.........did you know that the markets bottom out historically 3 months before the end of "a recession" . My point is that if someone could just pick the end of the recession then we could map out the bargains ....lol

also its common knowlwdge that stocks typically recover 1/3 of its total losses in the first month following the end of the recession........so timing is paramount.....have a good day mate....cheers SCHUI



Copper Prices Drop as Inventories Rise to Highest Since 2004

By Millie Munshi

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell for the second straight day as an increase in inventories signaled less demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange jumped 2.1 percent today to 252,550 metric tons, the highest since March 10, 2004. Supplies have more than doubled in the second half of this year. Copper futures tumbled 7.1 percent yesterday on concern that consumption is waning.

``The incessant build in stocks is adding to downside pressure,'' analysts at Barclays Capital in London said in a report.

Copper futures for December delivery fell 3.8 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $1.781 a pound at 9:27 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before today, the metal was down 53 percent since June 30.

On the LME, copper for delivery in three months dropped $140, or 3.4 percent, to $3,930 a metric ton ($1.79 a pound).

shasta
10-11-2008, 04:20 PM
SHASTA ....Copper is under pressure due to inventories well up .If the cartel would only put the squeeze on suppply then we will see higher copper prices....lol...........we will have to be patient and wait for the global market to recover which i suspect may be well into the new year............my guess is that PNA is probably below its NTA so its a waiting game.........did you know that the markets bottom out historically 3 months before the end of "a recession" . My point is that if someone could just pick the end of the recession then we could map out the bargains ....lol

also its common knowlwdge that stocks typically recover 1/3 of its total losses in the first month following the end of the recession........so timing is paramount.....have a good day mate....cheers SCHUI



Copper Prices Drop as Inventories Rise to Highest Since 2004

By Millie Munshi

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices fell for the second straight day as an increase in inventories signaled less demand for the metal used in pipes and wires.

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange jumped 2.1 percent today to 252,550 metric tons, the highest since March 10, 2004. Supplies have more than doubled in the second half of this year. Copper futures tumbled 7.1 percent yesterday on concern that consumption is waning.

``The incessant build in stocks is adding to downside pressure,'' analysts at Barclays Capital in London said in a report.

Copper futures for December delivery fell 3.8 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $1.781 a pound at 9:27 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before today, the metal was down 53 percent since June 30.

On the LME, copper for delivery in three months dropped $140, or 3.4 percent, to $3,930 a metric ton ($1.79 a pound).

PNA - Phu Kham Copper increase FY09 & reduced costs ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=205438

Cash costs to reduce to under $US0.90/lb

Copper forecast now 65,000t

Gold forecast 70,000 - 80,000/oz

Silver forecast 400,000 - 600,000/oz

Wow - watch PNA fly when the market digests this :D

shasta
11-11-2008, 08:17 AM
PNA - Phu Kham Copper increase FY09 & reduced costs ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=205438

Cash costs to reduce to under $US0.90/lb

Copper forecast now 65,000t

Gold forecast 70,000 - 80,000/oz

Silver forecast 400,000 - 600,000/oz

Wow - watch PNA fly when the market digests this :D

LME base metals rise on China's $855bn spending plan

COPPER jumped 11 per cent, pulling all industrial metals higher, on hopes that China's $855 billion economic stimulus plan will boost demand.

Nickel rallied more than 13 per cent, while zinc climbed around 7 per cent, but they later trimmed their gains, along with copper, as analysts said the move may not be enough to change the short-term bearish demand outlook for metals.

The world's top consumer of copper, China, on Sunday approved 4 trillion yuan ($855 billion) in new government spending between now and 2010.

London Metal Exchange copper MCU3 rallied as high as $US4171.75 a tonne, up 11 per cent but closed at $US3875 per tonne after trimming some gains, still up $US120 from Friday's close of $US3755 a tonne.

"It's good for copper," said Justin Lennon, analyst at Mitsui Bussan Commodities in New York.

"China is the biggest consumer of copper, no doubt, it's going to be a boost but I don't think the underlying issues have changed," he said, referring to the bearish outlook for metals due to weaker consumption in the face of a global slowdown.
Prices for copper have slumped more than 50 per cent from a record high of $US8940 in July amid slowing demand.

Inventories of the metal, used in construction and power, rose 6,050 tonnes to 260,850 tonnes, the highest since March 2004. Copper stocks have jumped almost 23,000 tonnes so far in November.

"While such an injection of cash is certainty constructive, we are sceptical about the ‘staying power’ of this move on metal prices, and doubt it will be enough to propel the complex to a higher trading range," said MF Global in a note.

China's stimulus plan and a pledge by the G20 group, representing 90 per cent of the world's economy, to take all necessary measures to get financial markets back on their feet lifted all industrial metals as did the weaker US dollar.

A weaker US currency makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Nickel jumped 13 per cent helped by short-covering as investors who had bet on lower prices bought back their positions.

"We have seen that over the past couple of weeks where the gains from short covering have been really quite substantial and that is a reflection of how large a short position has been established on nickel," said Barclays Capital analyst Gayle Berry.

The volatility in nickel prices is likely to continue over the next few months, she added.

The metal soared as high as $US12,450 a tonne, from Friday's last bid of $US10,975, and closed at $US11,500.

"Nickel has probably fallen further below production cost than any other base metal, so in the short term it also has the greatest potential for recovery," said Commerzbank in a note.

Prices have dropped over 50 per cent so far this year on lower demand from stainless steel producers and have remained below $US20,000 a tonne since September 1.

Aluminium rose as high as $US2,042, a 4.2 per cent gain, from $US1960 on Friday. It closed $US30 higher at $US1990.

LME inventories posted another jump -- up 11,125 to 1.55 million tonnes -- but prices were supported by an announcement that a $US10.6 billion aluminium joint venture between Rio Tinto and Saudi-based Maaden could be delayed by one or two years due to the global financial crisis.

Zinc rallied 7.2 per cent to a session high of $US1170, before closing at $US1100/1105 from $US1091 a tonne.

Oz Minerals, the world's second largest zinc miner and a major supplier of copper, lead and nickel to China, was the latest miner to say it is reviewing operations amid sharply lower metals prices and tighter credit markets.

Lead jumped 6.4 per cent to $US1449, from $US1361 a tonne, and closed at $US1355, down $US6 from Friday. Tin gained 4.8 per cent to a high of $US15,300 and ended at $US14,675 versus last bid of $US14,600 on Friday.

shasta
13-11-2008, 05:48 PM
Copper now under $US1.60/lb (PNA gross margin stil $A2,300t)

Aluminum Falls to Three-Year Low on Stockpiles; Copper Rebounds
By Claudia Carpenter

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum fell to three-year low in London as bulging stockpiles (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LSAH%3AIND) heightened speculation that miners need more output cuts to match slowing demand led by China, the world's biggest buyer. Copper rebounded from a three-year low.

Aluminum inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have jumped 67 percent this year to the highest since 1995 and copper supplies are the highest since 2004. China's aluminum demand may grow 2 percent or 3 percent next year, the slowest pace since 1997, Wang Feihong (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Wang+Feihong&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said in Beijing today.

``Inventories are going up and China's not looking great,'' said Jon Bergtheil, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. That's what's worried the market in copper for the last two or three weeks.''

Aluminum for delivery in three months dropped $24 to $1,924 a metric ton as of 4:46 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange and earlier fell to $1,911, the lowest since Oct. 24, 2005. Copper rose $10 to $3,650 a ton after earlier declining to $3,570 a ton, the lowest since Sept. 19, 2005.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FCX%3AUS), the world's largest publicly traded copper producer, will reduce production at mines in North America next year, analysts at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, said in a report today. Their production estimate for Freeport's North American mines was lowered 20 percent.

``We will see a lot of production cuts coming in the next few months,'' said Jochen Hitzfeld (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jochen+Hitzfeld&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich.

Industrial Production
European industrial production declined 2.4 percent in September from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2002, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From the previous month, production dropped 1.6 percent, led by Germany, the world's third-largest copper user after China and the U.S. in 2007, according to the International Copper Study Group in Lisbon.

UniCredit forecasts aluminum will average $2,150 a ton next year, down 22 percent from this year's average, and copper at $5,000, 33 percent lower.
``Aluminum is now between 20 and 30 percent below production cost -- they will cut back,'' Hitzfeld said.

Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, has cut surcharges for metal sold next year in Europe, Japan and South Korea to keep market share as global growth slows. Codelco lowered its surcharge for metal sold next year to $65 a ton in Japan and $64 a ton in South Korea, according to four industry executives who saw the notice to clients today. In Europe, the fee will be $80 a ton.

Stockpiles of copper (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LSCA%3AIND) gained 4,625 tons, or 1.7 percent, to 270,100 tons, the 16th consecutive increase. Aluminum stockpiles jumped 6,125 tons to 1.56 million tons, the most since Jan. 31, 1995.

Lead for three-month delivery gained $20 to $1,300 a ton and zinc rose $35 to $1,145 a ton. Tin dropped $475 to $13,700 a ton and nickel fell $205 to $10,500 a ton

shasta
14-11-2008, 10:15 PM
Copper now under $US1.60/lb (PNA gross margin stil $A2,300t)

Aluminum Falls to Three-Year Low on Stockpiles; Copper Rebounds
By Claudia Carpenter

Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum fell to three-year low in London as bulging stockpiles (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LSAH%3AIND) heightened speculation that miners need more output cuts to match slowing demand led by China, the world's biggest buyer. Copper rebounded from a three-year low.

Aluminum inventories in warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have jumped 67 percent this year to the highest since 1995 and copper supplies are the highest since 2004. China's aluminum demand may grow 2 percent or 3 percent next year, the slowest pace since 1997, Wang Feihong (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Wang+Feihong&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) of Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. said in Beijing today.

``Inventories are going up and China's not looking great,'' said Jon Bergtheil, an analyst at Citigroup Inc. in London. That's what's worried the market in copper for the last two or three weeks.''

Aluminum for delivery in three months dropped $24 to $1,924 a metric ton as of 4:46 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange and earlier fell to $1,911, the lowest since Oct. 24, 2005. Copper rose $10 to $3,650 a ton after earlier declining to $3,570 a ton, the lowest since Sept. 19, 2005.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FCX%3AUS), the world's largest publicly traded copper producer, will reduce production at mines in North America next year, analysts at FBR Capital Markets in Arlington, Virginia, said in a report today. Their production estimate for Freeport's North American mines was lowered 20 percent.

``We will see a lot of production cuts coming in the next few months,'' said Jochen Hitzfeld (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Jochen+Hitzfeld&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1), an analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich.

Industrial Production
European industrial production declined 2.4 percent in September from a year earlier, the biggest drop since February 2002, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said today. From the previous month, production dropped 1.6 percent, led by Germany, the world's third-largest copper user after China and the U.S. in 2007, according to the International Copper Study Group in Lisbon.

UniCredit forecasts aluminum will average $2,150 a ton next year, down 22 percent from this year's average, and copper at $5,000, 33 percent lower.
``Aluminum is now between 20 and 30 percent below production cost -- they will cut back,'' Hitzfeld said.

Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, has cut surcharges for metal sold next year in Europe, Japan and South Korea to keep market share as global growth slows. Codelco lowered its surcharge for metal sold next year to $65 a ton in Japan and $64 a ton in South Korea, according to four industry executives who saw the notice to clients today. In Europe, the fee will be $80 a ton.

Stockpiles of copper (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LSCA%3AIND) gained 4,625 tons, or 1.7 percent, to 270,100 tons, the 16th consecutive increase. Aluminum stockpiles jumped 6,125 tons to 1.56 million tons, the most since Jan. 31, 1995.

Lead for three-month delivery gained $20 to $1,300 a ton and zinc rose $35 to $1,145 a ton. Tin dropped $475 to $13,700 a ton and nickel fell $205 to $10,500 a ton

Copper up approx 4%, & PNA drops 0.5c (to 21.0c)

I still calculate PNA's gross profit margin at $A2,559t & have FY09 EPS @ 5.7c & a P/E of 3.68 (based on today commodity prices)

Copper is harder to read than the weather! :rolleyes:

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 04:42 PM
SHASTA.....PNA getting wacked....now at 12.5C /13c SELL....copper got a hammering at the open today so SHORT TERM looking grim..........also tonite in the us we will get reports out on the state of house sales in the us with all eyes on the obama cabinet picks ....so some good and bad news headed our way in the US tonite............PNA is certainly down heavily at the moment....im looking for another entry point but still too risky.....cheers SCHU

p.s DAMN those shorters .........lol

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 04:44 PM
Economic news
Monday: October existing home sales are expected to have fallen to a 5.05 million unit annual rate from a 5.18 million unit rate in September, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists.

Tuesday: Third-quarter GDP is expected to be revised lower, showing that economic activity fell at a steeper rate than previously reported. GDP is expected to have fallen at an 0.6% annual rate from an initial drop of 0.3%. GDP grew at a 2.8% rate in the second quarter.

Also Tuesday, the Conference Board releases its November consumer confidence index. The index is expected to improve modestly to 39.5 from 38 in October.

Wednesday: Durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 2.5% in October after rising 0.8% in September.

Personal income is expected to have risen 0.1% in October after rising 0.2% in September. Personal spending is expected to have fallen 0.7% in the month after falling 0.3% in September.

The Chicago PMI is expected to join other November regional manufacturing reports in showing that the sector remains in recession. PMI is expected to have risen modestly to 38.5 from 37.8 in October.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have been revised up fractionally to 58.0 from the previous dismal reading of 57.9.

New home sales are expected to have fallen to a 450,000 annual unit rate in October from a 464,000 annual until rate in September.

Investors will also be keeping an eye on the weekly unemployment report to see if the recent extension in unemployment benefits will bump up the continuing claims number from the 26-year high it hit last week. There were no economists' estimates available for the report.

Thursday: All financial markets are closed for Thanksgiving.

Friday: Financial markets close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday. Black Friday sales reports will pour in, giving investors a better sense of how weak the critical holiday period might be for the nation's chain stores.

shasta
24-11-2008, 04:44 PM
SHASTA.....PNA getting wacked....now at 12.5C /13c SELL....copper got a hammering at the open today so SHORT TERM looking grim..........also tonite in the us we will get reports out on the state of house sales in the us with all eyes on the obama cabinet picks ....so some good and bad news headed our way in the US tonite............PNA is certainly down heavily at the moment....im looking for another entry point but still too risky.....cheers SCHU

p.s DAMN those shorters .........lol

Appears a seller is trying to cap PNA, there has been some unusual tradign going on.

I'll update the PNA thread with my figures after the close of play ;)

macduffy
24-11-2008, 04:52 PM
Getting back to basics, how does PNA look from a 2-3 year "survival " view if Cu remains weak ( or weaker) and gold doesn't come to the rescue?
At these prices PNA is starting to look worth a small interest, IMO, but probably not until the trend reverses.

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 04:57 PM
MACDUFFY......IT all depends on whether you view commodities as a risk.....my answer to that is YES ...due to the recent data showing the global slowdown in place and that we are currently in a recession reflects on all metals and appropriate prices...........metals are on their 2003 lows and could go further....who knows?? basically if you think PNA can weather the storm then its one to buy and hold...........but i would rather have cash in bank right now..........may i suggest you revisit it in february 2009 once the hedge funds have cleaned out their rubbish.....lol
cheers SCHU

shasta
24-11-2008, 05:00 PM
Getting back to basics, how does PNA look from a 2-3 year "survival " view if Cu remains weak ( or weaker) and gold doesn't come to the rescue?
At these prices PNA is starting to look worth a small interest, IMO, but probably not until the trend reverses.

Well the $US0.90/lb cash costs will ensure PNA survives & they already have there debt re Phu Kham in place...

I can't see Copper going below $US1.50/lb, i'm guessing the next 2 - 3 years Copper will average around $US2/lb.

Gold over $US700/oz will lower the cash costs, & provide some cover if the US dollar appreciates

PNA are currently generating revenues of ~$US30-35m per month, so the payback period is quite rapid.

I'm glad they aren't looking at dividends, & in 12 months time the debt will be largely repaid.

The recent upgrade of FY09 forecast production numbers should help PNA as well.

I'm watching closely, but want to see Copper stablise before jumping in.

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 05:15 PM
SHASTA....going to be interesting but you may be on the money........copper shouldnt fall much further but will possibly trade betewwn current levels and $2.00

PNA do have a low cost production output so they could still turn a profit.....you may need to revisit your numbers at say a cash operating cost of $1.60/lb copper and $500 USD gold??

cheers SCHU

shasta
24-11-2008, 05:45 PM
SHASTA....going to be interesting but you may be on the money........copper shouldnt fall much further but will possibly trade betewwn current levels and $2.00

PNA do have a low cost production output so they could still turn a profit.....you may need to revisit your numbers at say a cash operating cost of $1.60/lb copper and $500 USD gold??

cheers SCHU

PNA figures from my spreadsheet (SP closed at 13c, MC = $187m)

Gross Profit Margin = $A2,370t (x FY09 forecast 65kt = $A154m)

I'm forecasting FY09 NPBT of $A113m, EPS of 5.5c & P/E of 2.36

These figures are based on current commodity prices & FX rates.

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 06:18 PM
sounds about right......my previous post I was meant to put an average cash operating cost of .95c /lb

cheers

shasta
24-11-2008, 06:26 PM
sounds about right......my previous post I was meant to put an average cash operating cost of .95c /lb

cheers

Because it's constantly changing i'd be more inclined to add a +/- 10% range on the forecast figures, probably being ultra conservative i'll assume a reduction of 10% (would still have NPBT of ~$A100m!)

PNA at 40c would still only be on a P/E of 7, so as long as the USD doesn't head past 70c, PNA is almost purely leveraged to the POC

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 07:00 PM
PanAust Limited ABN 17 011 065 160
Level 2, 99 Melbourne Street • PO Box 3468 • South Brisbane Qld 4101
Phone +61 (0) 7 3117 2000 • Facsimile +61 (0) 7 3846 4899
info@panaust.com.au • www.panaust.com.au
Phu Kham Copper‐Gold Operation, Laos
• The Operation was cash flow positive for the quarter
• 33,974t of concentrate containing 8,568t copper, 9,471oz gold and 54,879oz silver was
produced in the quarter, in‐line with ramp‐up expectation
• Mill feed for the quarter was 2,652,192t
• Design throughput of 12Mtpa was achieved two months ahead of schedule in late July
and was sustained through August and September. Copper recovery rate is steadily
improving
• Positive reconciliation of ore mined and processed versus the ore reserve
• Long term concentrate sales contract agreed with Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China’s
largest copper smelter
o PanAust has now agreed sales for 40% of Phu Kham’s copper‐gold concentrate
production to 2010 at competitive TC/RCs below the current benchmark
• Scout drilling intersects copper‐gold mineralisation over a strike length of 800m adjacent
to the currently defined northern limit of the deposit
Growth Projects
Phu Kham Copper‐Gold Expansion (of the process plant to 16Mtpa)
• Delivery of a new 6.5MW ball mill for the expansion is on track for the June quarter 2009
Ban Houayxai Gold‐Silver Deposit, Laos
• Pre‐feasibility study identifies the potential for a low‐cost operation producing annually
100,000oz to 130,000oz of gold and 700,000oz to 800,000oz of silver over a minimum six‐
year mine life
Puthep Copper Project, Thailand
• Drilling intersects plus‐200m near surface zones of copper‐gold mineralisation; indicates
the potential to increase the tonnage of the current mineral resource
• Broad zone of high‐grade copper‐gold mineralisation confirmed
Current market conditions
As a consequence of the prevailing volatility of the financial and commodity markets, PanAust
will apply a more cautious approach to the timing of capital development commitments and
exploration. The Company will be conducting a review of budgets and implementation
schedules for all growth projects and exploration during the December quarter 2008.

SCHUMACHER
24-11-2008, 07:28 PM
I like the comments in the second paragraph ................"The Phu Kham Operation was funded on a conservatively geared 50:50 debt:equity ratio on the assumption that the copper price would be US1.35/lb and a life‐of‐mine cash operating margin of US$0.50/lb (net of gold and silver credits)"

Operating cost review
A review of operating costs for the Phu Kham Operation was completed in early October,
following more than four months of commercial production. The review confirmed the
Company’s most recent cash operating cost guidance of US$1.00/lb after precious metal credits
under steady state production (assumes a gold price of US$700/oz and a silver price of
US$12/oz). This positions Phu Kham as a competitive, second quartile copper producer on the
global industry cost curve.


On this cost basis, operating margins at Phu Kham, even allowing for the recent fall in copper
price, are 60% higher than the cash operating margins assumed when PanAust and its lenders
committed to fund and develop the Project in 2006. The Phu Kham Operation was funded on a
conservatively geared 50:50 debt:equity ratio on the assumption that the copper price would be
US1.35/lb and a life‐of‐mine cash operating margin of US$0.50/lb (net of gold and silver credits)
versus the cash margin of US$0.80/lb calculated at current copper and gold prices (US$1.80/lb
copper and US$720/oz gold).

SCHUMACHER
25-11-2008, 07:24 AM
good to see copper recover following a big dip last week............copper up approx 7% following a string of positives coming out of the US.....Obama anouncing his economic team and GOVT backing CITIBANK and gaining preference shares .............now all we need to do is get the banks to lend back out to the market to help stimulate the economy .....Obama also talking about creating 2.5 million jobs in relation to roading ,infastructure, schools and alternative fuels, so thats good for base metals in general

China uses 25% of all total copper produced and it looks like the chinese governments will also inject money into their economy.........

so today all in all we may see the beginning of a "short term bear rally" and hopefully we may see a "short squeeze" rally which means the shorters will have to buy back the shares that they loaned then sold the market down with.

I enjoy seeing the shorters suffer.....as they are responsible for excessively overselling the market..............

sould get a good bounce today ........GOLD up to $820 COPPER up 7% DOW up 300 points(currently with 1. 1/2 hours to go)............all good signs for a fat bear RALLY!!!!

SCHUMACHER
26-11-2008, 07:18 PM
Shasta, jumped in today after it was holding up early afternoon
Nice trade today....bought at 14.5c and sold at 16c at close......some good volume but still very cautious leading into thanksgiving holiday on thursday in the USA........i suspect there will be a selloff on the dow tonite so no point in staying in today.......im predicting a 250 point drop and worst case it may retest 8000..........in theory money will sit on the sidelines at least until monday next week when it starts all over again......not sure what news is due out of the US next week so plenty of time to research before monday as i wont be buying anything else this week.....also short trading day on friday for the US
cheers SCHU

shasta
26-11-2008, 07:31 PM
Shasta, jumped in today after it was holding up early afternoon
Nice trade today....bought at 14.5c and sold at 16c at close......some good volume but still very cautious leading into thanksgiving holiday on thursday in the USA........i suspect there will be a selloff on the dow tonite so no point in staying in today.......im predicting a 250 point drop and worst case it may retest 8000..........in theory money will sit on the sidelines at least until monday next week when it starts all over again......not sure what news is due out of the US next week so plenty of time to research before monday as i wont be buying anything else this week.....also short trading day on friday for the US
cheers SCHU

Nice work your braver than i am, despite the obvious fundamentals i'm still not ready until Copper looks a bit healthier

SCHUMACHER
26-11-2008, 09:04 PM
Nice work your braver than i am, despite the obvious fundamentals i'm still not ready until Copper looks a bit healthier


Brave alright....lol
Markets far too volatile for my liking to stay in longer than a day,so now im looking for some massively oversold cashed up companies so when the market shows more confidence(february next year) ,im geared for big short term gains

Basically I cant see past one trade at a time and today PNA was good for a trade, thats about it
....have a good nite in NZ
CHEERS SCHU

shasta
26-11-2008, 09:07 PM
Brave alright....lol
Markets far too volatile for my liking to stay in longer than a day,so now im looking for some massively oversold cashed up companies so when the market shows more confidence(february next year) ,im geared for big short term gains

Basically I cant see past one trade at a time and today PNA was good for a trade, thats about it
....have a good nite in NZ
CHEERS SCHU

Im not worried about the market, it's presenting plenty of opportunities for me & now i've got a new contract i'll be buying in anticipation of the upswing, but only companies that meet my investment criteria ;)

SCHUMACHER
27-11-2008, 08:40 PM
BIG volume for PNA today but a reversal of its recent form...........40 million shares traded

opened at 17c high of 18.5c and closed at 14.5c .....got back in at 14.5c ....lol from recent sell at 16c........lets see what happens tomorrow
cheers SCHU

shasta
29-11-2008, 07:28 PM
BIG volume for PNA today but a reversal of its recent form...........40 million shares traded

opened at 17c high of 18.5c and closed at 14.5c .....got back in at 14.5c ....lol from recent sell at 16c........lets see what happens tomorrow
cheers SCHU

Hi Schu

Bout time i posted some updated figures...:)

First of all the cash costs of $US0.90/lb will be reducing with Gold over $US100/oz over the assumption price of $US700/oz.

Gross Profit margin = $A2,491 (Remember FY09 forecast 65kt production)

I'm still conservatively forecasting NPBT (as i dont know what losses are carried forward) of around $A120m

I still have FY09 EPS of 6.0c & a P/E of 2.66 (Based on Friday's close of 16c)

The Gold price over $US800/oz makes PNA more than just a Copper play

SCHUMACHER
01-12-2008, 04:54 PM
Hi Schu

Bout time i posted some updated figures...:)

First of all the cash costs of $US0.90/lb will be reducing with Gold over $US100/oz over the assumption price of $US700/oz.

Gross Profit margin = $A2,491 (Remember FY09 forecast 65kt production)

I'm still conservatively forecasting NPBT (as i dont know what losses are carried forward) of around $A120m

I still have FY09 EPS of 6.0c & a P/E of 2.66 (Based on Friday's close of 16c)

The Gold price over $US800/oz makes PNA more than just a Copper play

thanks SHASTA......hard to know whats going to happen.....PNA was good for a trade last week, but this week im rather bearish on the market.....i expect some retracement to the 8000 level .....heres whats in store for this week in the US....starting with manufacturing report out early monday in the USA

watch out for the retracement.....cheers SCHU

Economy
Monday: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases what is expected to be a grim report on manufacturing in the morning. November ISM is expected to fall to a 26-year low of 38, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com, versus a reading of 38.9 in October.

Construction spending likely fell in October, with economists expecting the government report to decline by 0.9% after it fell by 0.3% in September.

Also on Monday, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will give a speech on the markets and economy at the Fortune 500 forum in Washington.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also speaking Monday. He will be in Texas, talking about the Fed's policies in the financial crisis at the meeting of the Greater Austin Chamber of Commerce.

Tuesday: The automakers have until Tuesday to submit proposals for how they would use $25 billion in taxpayer money to make their companies "viable."

The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing next Friday on the proposals and the Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a hearing sometime during the week too.

Separately Tuesday, monthly auto and truck sales figures for November will be released during the normal trading session. October auto sales were the weakest in 25 years. (Full story)

Wednesday: The ISM releases its report on the services sector of the economy. The November services sector index is expected to fall to 42.6 from 44.4 in October.

Payroll services firm ADP releases its report on private sector employment in November, ahead of the big national report Friday. Employers are expected to have cut 173,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 157,000 jobs in October.

Also, the revised reading on third-quarter productivity is due in the morning, while the Fed's "Beige Book" reading on the economy is due in the afternoon.

Thursday: Factory orders are expected to have fallen 2.7% in October, when the government releases its report in the morning. Orders fell 2.5% in September.

The weekly jobless claims report is due in the morning, as well as November sales from the nation's retailers. October sales were disastrous as retailers continue to struggle with attracting consumers in an economic downturn. (Full story)

Also, before the market opens, luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL, Fortune 500) is slated to release its quarterly financial report. Toll gave a glimpse into its state of affairs in early November, when it said revenue dropped 41% but also noted it had enough cash on hand to weather the turmoil.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak about housing and housing finance in Washington, D.C., at the President's Conference on Homeownership and Mortgage Initiative.

Friday: The November jobs report is released in the morning. Employers are expected to have cut 300,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 240,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 6.8% from 6.5% in the previous month.

Huang Chung
01-12-2008, 09:44 PM
I hope for holders PNA is all it seems. OZL have rapidly moved from a net cash position to net debt, and now its having trouble getting new finance.

Caution warranted in my opinion.

SCHUMACHER
02-12-2008, 07:46 AM
I hope for holders PNA is all it seems. OZL have rapidly moved from a net cash position to net debt, and now its having trouble getting new finance.

Caution warranted in my opinion.


Huang...caution is definately required....its all very well to have a supply contract but if demand falls then you have a supply slowdown.......PNA have a large debt of approx 240 million USD.....Although they have a large revenue stream, each month of around 30 million ....that figure falls based on spot prices.......maregins tighten and the result is less cashflow less profit and more pressure on operation costs.....then you have staff layoffs due to less demand and it snowballs to a point where something has to break.......the metals markets are under huge pressure right now..........china , europe , japan and US are all in recession mode .........just take a look at the big players like RIO and BHP(2nd and 3rd largest iron ore producers) ......both companies have come out and say that times are much tougher which require tough measures......price of IO is way down on y/y.......so PNA is not a sure bet at the moment.....but i will say that PNA has more chance of riding the storm than other companies........fortunately PNA has gold and silver credits as a by product of copper moning so that helps lower the production cost per l/b copper........cheers SCHU

P.S ive been trading PNA recently and made good profit but this week im staying out of the markets until we see some positive news return......cheers SCHU

Huang Chung
02-12-2008, 09:38 AM
Huang...caution is definately required....its all very well to have a supply contract but if demand falls then you have a supply slowdown.......PNA have a large debt of approx 240 million USD.....Although they have a large revenue stream, each month of around 30 million ....that figure falls based on spot prices.......maregins tighten and the result is less cashflow less profit and more pressure on operation costs.....then you have staff layoffs due to less demand and it snowballs to a point where something has to break.......the metals markets are under huge pressure right now..........china , europe , japan and US are all in recession mode .........just take a look at the big players like RIO and BHP(2nd and 3rd largest iron ore producers) ......both companies have come out and say that times are much tougher which require tough measures......price of IO is way down on y/y.......so PNA is not a sure bet at the moment.....but i will say that PNA has more chance of riding the storm than other companies........fortunately PNA has gold and silver credits as a by product of copper moning so that helps lower the production cost per l/b copper........cheers SCHU

P.S ive been trading PNA recently and made good profit but this week im staying out of the markets until we see some positive news return......cheers SCHU

OZL have only hit trouble when it came time to renew their debt facility. A good rule of thumb in these credit constrained times seems to be to stay clear of any miner who will soon need to renegotiate their debt.

shasta
04-12-2008, 06:18 PM
OZL have only hit trouble when it came time to renew their debt facility. A good rule of thumb in these credit constrained times seems to be to stay clear of any miner who will soon need to renegotiate their debt.

PNA - Phu Kham Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=206330

The figures for November Revenue still look ok (figures all $US)

5,000t Copper x $3,390t = $16,950,000

3,600/oz Gold x $770/oz = $2,772,000

28,000/oz Silver x $9.50/oz = $266,000

Revenue approx $US20m (FX rate say .65) = ~$A30m per month

The Copper price is hovering just above $US1.50/lb, which concerns me should it breach it...

SCHUMACHER
04-12-2008, 06:48 PM
the figures are certainly getting tight SHASTA.....i traded it again today, which as far as i was concerned I could have easily ended up with a loss but got lucky again. I bought in at 13c following open and then out came the announcement. I offloaded at 13.5c then went away to do some work.....came back and saw it trading late arvo at 12c........sometimes it is all about timing and luck.....quick in and out for $500 bucks...lol

looks like we may get a retrace tomorrow, and i have to say i was rather surprised to see thew DOW close in the green last nite , especially with the DATA showing negative results in productivity, and payroll down 250,000 jobs for the month.............but as expected at todays close my entire watchlist went RED.....ASX index closed in the red also .....

tomorrow we have the factory orders are out which they are expecting a drop of 2.7% for october............plus the weekly jobless report is out so im expecting a blood bath thursday unless we get another surprise fat interest rate cut for Ben Bernake to counterbalance the negative news .!! also TOL (FORTUNE 500) WILL RELEASE ITS QUARTERLY REPORT which wont be very good...in early november TOL re[ported its revenue dropped 41%....ouch
good luck fellow traders ,...may the trend be your friend ....cheers SCHU

shasta
04-12-2008, 07:47 PM
the figures are certainly getting tight SHASTA.....i traded it again today, which as far as i was concerned I could have easily ended up with a loss but got lucky again. I bought in at 13c following open and then out came the announcement. I offloaded at 13.5c then went away to do some work.....came back and saw it trading late arvo at 12c........sometimes it is all about timing and luck.....quick in and out for $500 bucks...lol

looks like we may get a retrace tomorrow, and i have to say i was rather surprised to see thew DOW close in the green last nite , especially with the DATA showing negative results in productivity, and payroll down 250,000 jobs for the month.............but as expected at todays close my entire watchlist went RED.....ASX index closed in the red also .....

tomorrow we have the factory orders are out which they are expecting a drop of 2.7% for october............plus the weekly jobless report is out so im expecting a blood bath thursday unless we get another surprise fat interest rate cut for Ben Bernake to counterbalance the negative news .!! also TOL (FORTUNE 500) WILL RELEASE ITS QUARTERLY REPORT which wont be very good...in early november TOL re[ported its revenue dropped 41%....ouch
good luck fellow traders ,...may the trend be your friend ....cheers SCHU

Those revenue figures were with current commodity prices...

The actual cash costs per ton will be lower than the previously announced $US1,980t (0.90/lb)

It's when the cash profit margin goes below 50c/lb then all the Copper producers are in it :confused: (PNA's margin would be in the 60 - 70c/lb range, with Gold between $US700 - 800/oz)

shasta
07-12-2008, 01:27 PM
Those revenue figures were with current commodity prices...

The actual cash costs per ton will be lower than the previously announced $US1,980t (0.90/lb)

It's when the cash profit margin goes below 50c/lb then all the Copper producers are in it :confused: (PNA's margin would be in the 60 - 70c/lb range, with Gold between $US700 - 800/oz)

I see Copper prices are now at a new low of $US1.3877/lb

This will now be having the same affect as Zinc did, with most producers losing money now & even PNA is marginal.

When Copper is back in a confrimed uptrend & can hold $US1.80/lb i'll be interested again.

Until then, just like SRL, PNA will have to improve before i buy in

SCHUMACHER
09-12-2008, 04:03 PM
Have to agree....now that the price of Copper is at 3-5 year lows its time to park up and wait and see scenario.........missed the recent move from 11.5c to 13c but i see its back to 11.5c -12c in one day ....this is purely traders, like myself driving the shareprice as opposed to high copper prices.......PNA still has high debt but supply contracts are in place so they are guaranteed revenue ....the big question is whetehr they will make a solid after tax profit at current spot CU prices
cheers SCHU

SCHUMACHER
17-12-2008, 01:39 PM
Have to agree....now that the price of Copper is at 3-5 year lows its time to park up and wait and see scenario.........missed the recent move from 11.5c to 13c but i see its back to 11.5c -12c in one day ....this is purely traders, like myself driving the shareprice as opposed to high copper prices.......PNA still has high debt but supply contracts are in place so they are guaranteed revenue ....the big question is whetehr they will make a solid after tax profit at current spot CU prices
cheers SCHU

PNA Shareprice in trouble....ive been out for a while now after trading it daily.....havent looked at it with the price of copper still falling......looks like PNA may end up having to restructure .....lets see what happens......i certainly dont recommend buiying it now as even though it looks cheap its far too risky ...Look what happened to CUO rcently and they were a $1.00 pound producer........cheers SCHU

shasta
17-12-2008, 05:13 PM
PNA Shareprice in trouble....ive been out for a while now after trading it daily.....havent looked at it with the price of copper still falling......looks like PNA may end up having to restructure .....lets see what happens......i certainly dont recommend buiying it now as even though it looks cheap its far too risky ...Look what happened to CUO rcently and they were a $1.00 pound producer........cheers SCHU

PNA as a Copper producer is fully leveraged to the price of Copper.

The fundamentals are all there, but the bears don't give a sh*t about them.

When Copper rises so will PNA...

Until then i'm not interested. :rolleyes:

This market turmoil has taught me many lessons, & after rehashing my investment strategy, i'm sitting on the sidelines & not even tempted to buy anything, & havent for some time now.

biker
17-12-2008, 07:42 PM
9.5c is looking very attractive. CU price can't go down for ever.

shasta
17-12-2008, 07:49 PM
9.5c is looking very attractive. CU price can't go down for ever.

True, but one quick look at the LME inventory & Copper isn't reducing, so it may fall a little further...

$US1.30/lb the bottom :confused:

shasta
18-12-2008, 06:00 PM
True, but one quick look at the LME inventory & Copper isn't reducing, so it may fall a little further...

$US1.30/lb the bottom :confused:

PNA - Company Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=206701

Not is all doom & gloom!

SCHUMACHER
18-12-2008, 07:12 PM
PNA - Company Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=206701

Not is all doom & gloom!


SHASTA
bugga.....missed that trade but in risky territory for me.....traders had some fun on this ride......i looked at it when it was 8.4 8.5c today and decided that it had fallen too much for my likeing....lol


good old harry hindsight....cheers SCHU

shasta
18-12-2008, 07:19 PM
SHASTA
bugga.....missed that trade but in risky territory for me.....traders had some fun on this ride......i looked at it when it was 8.4 8.5c today and decided that it had fallen too much for my likeing....lol


good old harry hindsight....cheers SCHU

Can't win em all Schu...

Sometimes you gotta stack the defense & take a point on the road aye ;)

SCHUMACHER
18-12-2008, 09:08 PM
Can't win em all Schu...

Sometimes you gotta stack the defense & take a point on the road aye ;)

absolutely ....ive had a mixed bag this year and have basically stopped buying and selling......time for a rest and wait and see ......i think next year will be much of the same.......more job losses, companies being re valued for their true value and tight controls on spending, more negative growth and general recessionary stance towards investing.......i think the sectors to be in will be infastructure, and possibly healthcare........perhaps bio stocks may make a resurgence.......merry christmas Shasta!!....cheers SCHU

biker
31-12-2008, 11:53 AM
Trading Halt. Problems or buyout?

shasta
31-12-2008, 01:09 PM
Trading Halt. Problems or buyout?


PanAust anticipates concluding an agreement with Goldman Sachs JBWere (“GSJBW”) in relation to the terms for the rollover of its US$80million subordinated debt facility with GSJBW to 31 March 2010. Given the likely materiality of such agreement, PanAust considers it appropriate to apply for a trading halt so as to ensure that, upon recommencement of trading, the market can trade on a fully
informed basis.

Any issues with funding & the SP will get slatted

soulman
05-01-2009, 02:23 PM
9.5c is looking very attractive. CU price can't go down for ever.

Yep, PNA has surged 100% today after refinancing their debt.

You got any at 9.5 cents biker?

biker
05-01-2009, 05:12 PM
Yes I did soulman. PNA have been very good to me over the last couple of years and I think they will be again in the future when the price of copper recovers and the warehouse stocks level drops. A well run producer with good prospects IMHO. I do think however that G SACKS,J BEWARE got away with daylight robbery in the refinancing deal.

shasta
07-01-2009, 06:20 PM
Yes I did soulman. PNA have been very good to me over the last couple of years and I think they will be again in the future when the price of copper recovers and the warehouse stocks level drops. A well run producer with good prospects IMHO. I do think however that G SACKS,J BEWARE got away with daylight robbery in the refinancing deal.

PNA on the up closing at 23c ...:)

Still not convinced Copper is behaving well enough to warrant further interest.

Watching, still

shasta
16-01-2009, 06:10 PM
PNA - Qtrly Report

A great weekend read to get a handle on it's future & why PNA is one to watch when Copper heads north (& trends that way past $UA=S1.80/lb)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207119

shasta
19-01-2009, 11:15 AM
PNA - Qtrly Report

A great weekend read to get a handle on it's future & why PNA is one to watch when Copper heads north (& trends that way past $UA=S1.80/lb)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207119

PNA - Trading halt

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207133

147m placement (10.2%) & a SPP to boot

shasta
19-01-2009, 12:09 PM
PNA - Trading halt

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207133

147m placement (10.2%) & a SPP to boot

PNA - Investment Presentation, as provided to sophisicated/institutional investors as part of the placement.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207135

shasta
21-01-2009, 01:05 PM
PNA - Investment Presentation, as provided to sophisicated/institutional investors as part of the placement.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207135

PNA - Placement & SPP (heavily oversubscribed)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207179

PNA now looks well funded, just needs Copper over $US1.80/lb & it'll fly

trader10
03-02-2009, 07:41 PM
Hi Shasta,

I agree with your positive thoughts on this junior oversold stock......I see value on PANAUST LIMITED at these levels....I've bought in on the last 3 trading days.... my average is 13 cents. It's a "Bottom-Drawer-Stock" for me now...

Since the 19/01, when PANAUST announced their Investor Presentation - Share Placement, I've been very tempted in buy in. But, since the TA has been telling me to "wait and see", I've found that a window of opportunity has arised after the larger volume has formed on the 29/01.

29-Jan-2009 0.1550 0.1550 0.1350 0.1350 15,287,259

We "might" see the stock price still hovering 12c -13.5c for a lil while IMO but, once we've got the placement behind us we should be able to see some action on the price with further news coming up to cement both placement levels....

Interesting times ahead.

shasta
03-02-2009, 07:53 PM
Hi Shasta,

I agree with your positive thoughts on this junior oversold stock......I see value on PANAUST LIMITED at these levels....I've bought in on the last 3 trading days.... my average is 13 cents. It's a "Bottom-Drawer-Stock" for me now...

Since the 19/01, when PANAUST announced their Investor Presentation - Share Placement, I've been very tempted in buy in. But, since the TA has been telling me to "wait and see", I've found that a window of opportunity has arised after the larger volume has formed on the 29/01.

29-Jan-2009 0.1550 0.1550 0.1350 0.1350 15,287,259

We "might" see the stock price still hovering 12c -13.5c for a lil while IMO but, once we've got the placement behind us we should be able to see some action on the price with further news coming up to cement both placement levels....

Interesting times ahead.

I'm still tracking PNA on my spreadsheet, esp with Gold some $200/oz above the $US0.90/lb cash cost assumptions...

The SPP which is capped at 15c, & at a 7.5% discount to market price will create a bit of overhang on the stock, so i've got time to wait.

A share consolidation is warranted down the track IMO.

I want to see Copper north of $US1.75/lb before i jump in...

AMR
03-02-2009, 07:55 PM
I'm still tracking PNA too, a large gap underneath. Gaps traditionally get filled, which should provide a better buying opportunity.

trader10
03-02-2009, 08:32 PM
Shasta :

I see copper prices changing course as soon as US, Europe and especially China implement the new stimulus package.....

Prices are already rebounding slightly..... Bid/Ask 1.4730 - 1.4776
Change +0.0491 +3.45%


Interesting article below :

Copper Rises on Global Stockpile Drop, U.S. Manufacturing Data

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Copper climbed in London after global stockpiles fell for the first time in seven weeks and as manufacturing in the U.S., the world’s second-largest user after China, shrank less than economists forecast.

London Metal Exchange-monitored inventory fell 325 metric tons to 491,200 tons yesterday, the first decline since Dec. 11. The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose to 35.6 in January from 32.9 in the prior month, as a decline in new orders moderated. Readings less than 50 signal a contraction.

“The unexpected inventory decline and the factory index rebound supported copper,” Chen Yonglin, an analyst with Citic Futures Co., said from Shanghai today.

Copper for three-month delivery rose 1.6 percent to $3,225 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 12:43 p.m. in Shanghai.

April-delivery copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.2 percent to 25,970 yuan ($3,797) at the same time.

“As the premium of Shanghai prices over London has narrowed, we’d expect closure of arbitrage positions,” Citic’s Chen said.

The improvement in the U.S. ISM manufacturing index was only due to textiles and petroleum and coal, while others sectors including fabricated metals contracted, Anne-Laure Tremblay, an analyst at BNP Paribas, said in an e-mailed report today.

Construction Spending

Construction spending in the U.S. dropped 5.1 percent in 2008, the most since records began in 1993, according to a Commerce Department report yesterday. Non-residential construction slid 0.6 percent in December, showing a collapse in residential building may be spreading to commercial properties.

Builders are the biggest users of copper in the U.S.

Among other LME-traded metals, aluminum fell 0.5 percent to $1,382.50 a ton, zinc added 2.1 percent to $1,137 and lead rose 1.8 percent to $1,125.

Ningbo Sunhu Chemical Products Co., China’s biggest nickel trader, said its post-Lunar New Year sales slumped as 90 percent of its customers remained closed because of a lack of demand.

Sales in the first two days after the week-long holiday dropped 95 percent from the same period last year, Kevin Ji, chief analyst, said in a phone interview from Beijing today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aeedg5_JBeWA&refer=africa

================================================== ==================

AMR,

Even thou gaps can be filled......I just can't see it working on PNA TA..... Fundamentals have changed dramatically when the gap occured....not that it's not possible but, in my view it will not get filled only because there are other forces behind it.....

Should be definetely interesting times ahead......


cheers :)

trader10
03-02-2009, 09:56 PM
...."Imports of copper, iron ore, and oil all rose in December. Iron ore imports were up 6.2%, copper imports were up 19.3%, and imports of crude oil climbed 11.6% on a year-over-year basis."....

Over the past few months, China has capitalized on the financial turmoil that has paralyzed the world’s “developed” economies by stocking up on cheap commodities, weeding out competition to its largest state-run companies, and acquiring even more foreign assets.

With commodity prices in a historic swoon, China is scouring the planet for the natural resources it needs to advance its recently unveiled $586 billion stimulus plan - a plan primarily focused on infrastructure.

In order to execute a massive infrastructure overhaul, China is using its huge stash of foreign reserves to load up on the raw materials crucial to the endeavor. Now that prices have gone down, China’s commodities stockpiles are going up.

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/02/02/rio-tinto-chinalco-2/

trader10
03-02-2009, 10:31 PM
Could it be the start of the copper players recovery to better levels ? hummmm with so much money about to flow around and especially on infraestracture.....we could see a rise on some metals once again....especially in China....

Should be interestin for PNA also IMHO..... ;)

COPPER FUTURES SURGE

Shanghai copper near upside limit on economy recovery
Shanghai copper futures surged to within a whisker of their upside limit on Tuesday, buoyed by signs that China's economy could start to recover in the first half of the year.

Posted: Tuesday , 03 Feb 2009

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -

Shanghai copper futures surged to within a whisker of their upside limit on Tuesday, buoyed by signs that China's economy could start to recover in the first half of the year.

Shanghai copper futures SCFc3 rallied almost 5 percent from Monday's settlement to 26,480 yuan a tonne ($3,867) soon after the midday break, just 10 yuan short of their upside threshold. Benchmark copper MCU3 on the London Metal Exchange gained $82 to $3,267.

Sentiment was boosted by yuan interest rate swaps which rose sharply on the expectations of economic recovery, with the five-year yuan IRS heading for its biggest daily rise in at least 18 months.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=77869&sn=Detail

shasta
04-02-2009, 04:01 PM
Could it be the start of the copper players recovery to better levels ? hummmm with so much money about to flow around and especially on infraestracture.....we could see a rise on some metals once again....especially in China....

Should be interestin for PNA also IMHO..... ;)

COPPER FUTURES SURGE

Shanghai copper near upside limit on economy recovery
Shanghai copper futures surged to within a whisker of their upside limit on Tuesday, buoyed by signs that China's economy could start to recover in the first half of the year.

Posted: Tuesday , 03 Feb 2009

SINGAPORE (Reuters) -

Shanghai copper futures surged to within a whisker of their upside limit on Tuesday, buoyed by signs that China's economy could start to recover in the first half of the year.

Shanghai copper futures SCFc3 rallied almost 5 percent from Monday's settlement to 26,480 yuan a tonne ($3,867) soon after the midday break, just 10 yuan short of their upside threshold. Benchmark copper MCU3 on the London Metal Exchange gained $82 to $3,267.

Sentiment was boosted by yuan interest rate swaps which rose sharply on the expectations of economic recovery, with the five-year yuan IRS heading for its biggest daily rise in at least 18 months.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page504?oid=77869&sn=Detail

PNA - Ann re Ban Houayxai growing gold & silver revenue

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207538

With Gold & Silver likely to run in 2009, plus copper to recover(?), i'm starting to become more positive on PNA.

AMR
04-02-2009, 08:09 PM
Yes ditto...How is Laos as a place to do business? Better than CXC's Bolivia mine?

shasta
04-02-2009, 08:15 PM
Yes ditto...How is Laos as a place to do business? Better than CXC's Bolivia mine?

PNA are working with the Laos Govt (they own 10% of Phu Kham), it's not without risk, but PNA seem to have the right people "on side".

BHP are marketing the sale of the Phu Kham Copper for PNA, they are in the area too, so that gives me confidence.

I can see BHP wipping PNA up once Copper prices rise, & well before they get to ramp up there Copper production to 150kt p.a (2014 goal?)

shasta
05-02-2009, 10:29 AM
PNA are working with the Laos Govt (they own 10% of Phu Kham), it's not without risk, but PNA seem to have the right people "on side".

BHP are marketing the sale of the Phu Kham Copper for PNA, they are in the area too, so that gives me confidence.

I can see BHP wipping PNA up once Copper prices rise, & well before they get to ramp up there Copper production to 150kt p.a (2014 goal?)

I have reviewed & updated my spreadsheet in line with PNA company forecasts.

Using there assumptions of FY09 $US0.90/lb cash costs on the basis that:

Cu = $US1.45/lb, Au = $US700/oz, & Ag = $US10/oz, i get the following:

Using Copper 65,000t, Gold 75,000/oz, Silver 500,000/oz as FY09 production.

I currently calculate the gross profit margin on Cu as $A2,059t

With Cu currently just under $1.50/lb, Gold just over $900/oz, & Silver ~$12.50/oz (all in $US) i believe there cash costs & forecasts are actually rather conservative. ;)

With the current SP of $0.13, & ignoring any non cash write downs...

I'm estimating NPBT of $A110m (NPAT of $77m*), putting PNA on a FY09 P/E of 2.42, with EPS of 0.054 = a very cheap stock even with low Cu prices.

Copper is meant to be the "bell weather" base metal for the markets, so if you're turning bullish (like i'm becoming), keep an eye on Copper.

Note, all figures are prior to the placement & issue of new shares!

* Assumes tax payable @ 30% (there may be sufficient tax losses to carry forward, but again this is meant to be conservative!).

shasta
05-02-2009, 12:54 PM
PNA - Open Briefing & MD discusses the SPP

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PNA&E=ASX&N=207568

I'm not a fan of SPP's so will wait & get some cheaper overhang shares!

trader10
09-02-2009, 05:23 PM
She's definetely a nice play....especially with China demand and copper rising..... not to say gold and silver coming up.....

Nice to have her.....consolidation will become a support at 15c soon....nice

shasta
09-02-2009, 08:59 PM
She's definetely a nice play....especially with China demand and copper rising..... not to say gold and silver coming up.....

Nice to have her.....consolidation will become a support at 15c soon....nice

Copper is around $US1.63/lb at present, she's looking good ;)

With Gold still over $US900/oz, & Silver around $US13/oz, PNA may be on the rebound...:D

Also re Chinese demand, here's a nice read

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25025494-5005200,00.html

trader10
11-02-2009, 05:37 PM
She's trading nicely and steadly now.....I guess there are a few that want a piece of it now and get set for the future....

By the looks we could be seeing a break on 15c to become the next support very soon.

As Gary mentioned on the 05/02 - Corporatefile.com.au, ...."In 2009, the Operation is on target to produce more than 65,000t of copper,
between 70,000oz and 80,000oz of gold, and between 400,000oz and 600,000oz of
silver.
2009 is scheduled to be a high‐grade year with a forecast head grade of 0.75%
copper, which is 17% above the average life of mine ore grade of 0.64%. As a result, copper production is expected to exceed 65,000t at a cash cost (C1) after
precious metal credits of less than US$0.90/lb1."......

Good to be in at lower levels.....holding it tight now

AMR
14-02-2009, 10:19 AM
Nicely done trader10, big volume on friday with a break above 15c!

shasta
14-02-2009, 10:47 AM
Nicely done trader10, big volume on friday with a break above 15c!

Copper prices are still around the $US1.50/lb mark ($US3,300t).

I'd like to see some more strength in the Copper price before buying.

Copper is meant to be the "bell weather" metal for the markets...

Which way it goes is very important!

trader10
16-02-2009, 03:17 PM
Hi ARM,

Nice stuff ! ;) IT's all coming together....and as Shasta say...when prices of copper do get more strenght this baby will be seating pretty......then again, with production costs down it makes it up for the copper prices..... :)


Phu Kham Production Costs Fall to US$0.68/lb Copper

PanAust Limited (PanAust) is pleased to announce that the Phu Kham Copper‐Gold
Operation cash costs (C1) for January 2009 were US$0.68/lb copper after precious metal
credits at average prices for gold of US$895/oz and silver of US$10.40/oz.
PanAust Managing Director, Gary Stafford said, operating performance at Phu Kham has
been outstanding and cash costs in January tumbled as scheduled higher grade ore was
mined, while prices for key consumables including steel and fuel fell and the price of gold
rose. This was a particularly strong result given a planned mill shutdown occurred early in
the month.

Copper in concentrate production of 4,892 tonnes in January benefited from the head grade
rising to 0.76% copper, in‐line with the average grade anticipated for 2009. Gold production
for the month was 6,424oz, of which 40% was in doré from the heap leach operation, and
silver production totalled over 28,000oz.

Mr Stafford said, “the Operation is on track to achieve target production for 2009 of more
than 65,000t copper, between 70,000oz and 80,000oz of gold, and between 400,000oz and
600,000oz of silver at an extremely competitive cash cost,
“Looking forward, and as long as we continue to enjoy buoyant gold prices and cost inputs
don’t rise, we may be able to revise downwards our previous advice that cash costs (C1) will average US$0.90/lb copper during 2009,” he said.

PanAust aims to expand its gold business and recently announced the resumption of
feasibility study resource drilling at the Ban Houayxai gold‐silver deposit, which is
approximately 25km west of the Phu Kham Operations. The Ban Houayxai pre‐feasibility,
which was completed in October last year, identified the potential for a low‐cost operation
with an annual production of 100,000oz to 130,000oz of gold and 700,000oz to 800,000oz of silver of a minimum six‐year mine life.

The projected total cash cost for the Ban Houayxai project is less than US$330/oz gold which is very competitive when compared with the industry average of around US$400/oz gold. At current gold and silver prices, the planned Ban Houayxai production rate would double the proportion of PanAust’s total revenue attributable to gold and silver to around 50%.

Subject to a successful outcome of the feasibility study, the target date for commencement of goldsilver production at Ban Houayxai is 2011.

trader10
16-02-2009, 04:34 PM
lil shorty....

Short Sales 13-Feb-2009

PNA PANAUST LIMITED FPO
Total Shares Sold 37,567,327
Reported Gross Short Sales $760,963 (a)
Reported Gross Short Sales % of turnover 2.02%
Daily Change in security price % 17.24% Issued Capital $1,587,529,902 (b)
% of issued capital reported as short sold .04% (a) / (b)

shasta
16-02-2009, 04:36 PM
lil shorty....

Short Sales 13-Feb-2009

PNA PANAUST LIMITED FPO
Total Shares Sold 37,567,327
Reported Gross Short Sales $760,963 (a)
Reported Gross Short Sales % of turnover 2.02%
Daily Change in security price % 17.24% Issued Capital $1,587,529,902 (b)
% of issued capital reported as short sold .04% (a) / (b)

Hopefully they all get burnt, when Copper rises, coinciding with the drop in cash costs...;)

PNA seem to have there costs in check, & i'm watching the Copper price closely...

trader10
16-02-2009, 04:46 PM
..."Hopefully they all get burnt, when Copper rises, coinciding with the drop in cash costs..."....

Agree Shasta...agree.... look at them...



03:29:06 PM 0.180 25,954 4,671.72
03:29:03 PM 0.180 1,746 314.28
03:29:03 PM 0.180 100,000 18,000.00
03:29:03 PM 0.180 1,000 180.00 XT
03:29:03 PM 0.180 29,992 5,398.56
03:29:03 PM 0.180 150,000 27,000.00 XT
03:29:03 PM 0.180 500,000 90,000.00 XT
03:29:03 PM 0.180 100,000 18,000.00 XT
03:29:03 PM 0.180 2,910 523.80
03:29:03 PM 0.180 1,500 270.00
03:29:03 PM 0.180 350,000 63,000.00 XT
03:29:03 PM 0.180 46,369 8,346.42
03:29:03 PM 0.180 3,500 630.00 XT
03:29:02 PM 0.180 5,500 990.00 XT

trader10
26-02-2009, 01:43 PM
PNA is driving strongly today...nice to see it ;)

0.170 +0.020 13.33%

You can't go wrong with this one IMHO ;)

patrick
26-02-2009, 05:10 PM
But a pity the Company did not honour the Chairmans statement in the Offer Docuement that all who were registered as shareholders by the 23rd Feb. would be entitled to take up shares in the new issue.

trader10
01-03-2009, 06:25 PM
More cash for PanAust
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday, 27 February 2009
Kate Haycock

HOT on the heels of a $A21 million capital raising, copper-gold miner PanAust has netted another $26 million through a shareholder purchase plan.

The Laos-focused miner raised $21 million via a placement and has successfully raised $47 million in the last two months.

The total raised is slightly lower than the company’s expectations of $50-57 million from both, but PanAust managing director Gary Stafford said the response to the raisings was “gratifying”.

Under the SPP, PanAust shareholders were entitled to apply for up to $10,000 worth of new shares at either a 7.5% discount to the average closing price of PanAust shares for a week before the issue date, or 15c per share.

The cash will be used for working capital and to fund the completion of feasibility studies at the Ban Houayxai gold-silver play in Laos and the Puthep copper project in Thailand.

The company is looking to spend $US9 million ($A13.9 million) on the studies at both projects during 2009.

Meanwhile, at its flagship Phu Kham mine in Laos, the company said operational performance had been “outstanding” and cash costs were decreasing, coming to US68c per pound of copper, including precious metal credits.

Shares in the Brisbane-based company were last trading at 17.5c, half a cent higher this morning.

http://www.miningnews.net

impacman
17-03-2009, 07:58 PM
Dipped my toes in today at 50% of what I would like to see PNA as part of overall portfolio.

Now holding:)

shasta
18-03-2009, 07:43 PM
Dipped my toes in today at 50% of what I would like to see PNA as part of overall portfolio.

Now holding:)

With AOE & NHC running past what i wanted to pay for them (& LNC still to confirm the chinese coal sale), i'm having another look at PNA.

Everytime i update the spreadsheet i see value here...

If Copper is the "bell weather" metal for the markets, then it's probably the best place to be, besides GMI is light on Copper :rolleyes:

impacman
19-03-2009, 06:30 AM
Hi Shasta, I must admit that your comments about both PNA and GMI led me to have a good look at them. Both look good opportunities - obviously with PNA I have put money where mouth is - albeit only 50% of what I would like. I to think it is a bear mkt rally but hedging my bets.

GMI looks good as well and gives good exposure to the big boys. The fact they will probably not pay out a divi this time around (reading between the lines in report/comms and current enviro I wouldn't expect one this year) is okay as they will eventually return to that state and if they are anything like more recent ones ROI on current entry price is no to be sneezed at. Then there is the capital growth potential.... Do you have view on the share purchase plan? Obviously should strengthen share value but just want to make sure I am not missing something.

Cheers.

Timo
19-03-2009, 10:28 AM
Interesting depth atm.Doe's this mean the highest bidder gets the low sell price(17)

shasta
19-03-2009, 05:54 PM
Hi Shasta, I must admit that your comments about both PNA and GMI led me to have a good look at them. Both look good opportunities - obviously with PNA I have put money where mouth is - albeit only 50% of what I would like. I to think it is a bear mkt rally but hedging my bets.

GMI looks good as well and gives good exposure to the big boys. The fact they will probably not pay out a divi this time around (reading between the lines in report/comms and current enviro I wouldn't expect one this year) is okay as they will eventually return to that state and if they are anything like more recent ones ROI on current entry price is no to be sneezed at. Then there is the capital growth potential.... Do you have view on the share purchase plan? Obviously should strengthen share value but just want to make sure I am not missing something.

Cheers.

I like the fact the SPP was so well supported, this is very important when you consider what the funds will be spent on, PNA has some great projects to come online in the near future.

I will wait & grab some PNA when the overhang shares depress the price back below 20c, as there will be some profit taking on the new shares.

Re GMI - have a look at who they hold shares in & who pays dividends, basically they pass on the dividends received (& sometimes utilise capital gains).

BTW, i support there decision to suspend the dividend, they are holding 3% of the total portfolio in cash, & this will allow them more funds to invest & at the bottom of the market.

They are buying back there own shares = smart move from management!

I mention both PNA & GMI in the same breath for two main reasons...

1 GMI - Is well placed to benefit directly from the resource recovery, & have nearly 50% exposure to PGM's (Gold & Platinum mostly), &

2 Because they aren't big into Copper, PNA covers that for me, as well as some silver!

Note, GMI have invested into ASX:EQN who are ramping up to a 150kt p.a Copper project in Zambia.

impacman
19-03-2009, 06:38 PM
Thanks once again Shasta. I got into PNA at 20c and am of the same view as you regards retracement and hopefully picking up my other 50% sub 20's.

GMI would appear to be purely about when to get in without trying to pick bottom - for me they would be a medium term purchase at minimum (unless of course something occurred that caused me to change my mind!:)).

Will check out EQN a little more - must admit didn't look at them as much as other more known operators on their investment list.

shasta
19-03-2009, 09:26 PM
Thanks once again Shasta. I got into PNA at 20c and am of the same view as you regards retracement and hopefully picking up my other 50% sub 20's.

GMI would appear to be purely about when to get in without trying to pick bottom - for me they would be a medium term purchase at minimum (unless of course something occurred that caused me to change my mind!:)).

Will check out EQN a little more - must admit didn't look at them as much as other more known operators on their investment list.

Copper trending up nicely to $US1.7633/lb or $A5,722t

If Copper can sustain this rally, & stay above $US1.80/lb, i'll call this the end of the bear market...

However i'm not convinced just yet :confused:

trader10
06-04-2009, 07:58 PM
hi Shasta,

PNA is a gem.....non stop fun that is

It's nice to see this company beeing re-rated to the normal levels again.....a long way to go still....hopefully in few years it will be a strong and happening company and bring lots of more joy to us shareholders

cheers

STRAT
06-04-2009, 08:32 PM
Interesting depth atm.Doe's this mean the highest bidder gets the low sell price(17)Hi Timo.
No. A trade only takes place when the gap is bridged. A buyer raises their bid to meet the lowest seller or a seller lowers their bid to meet the highest buyer. This can happen before the bids appear on screen too.

Whats an Irish boy doin buying stock on this side of the world?

Timo
07-04-2009, 06:59 AM
Gotcha,I tested with a small parcel!This Irish boy is a shipwrecked kiwi whose lady had to come home for a dose of the Blarney.Just started trading last nov.on NZX and ASX last month.The markets here are pretty...(Its chunder,I won't go into it)ASX has been a better ride with oil/metals but gold was good to me.Sounds like they'll be the play for the duration.I'm Certainly learning heaps off you guys.Thats the thing I find about the web.The best stuff is free!