MCR - Time for the bottom drawer! [Archive] - Page 2

SEC

13-12-2006, 12:13 AM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

I'll have to ask the question, do they really need this extra nickel, with the excellent finds at Carnilya and Mariners [?]

It could also create a big headache with the skills and equipment shortage.

It could make them more attractive to someone like Lionore, Minara,BHP, Noriski. etc.

As WhiteHeron stated "That is an "in ground" cost of just under 50c per pound" That's cheap:)

When you're offered a piece of dirt that has 28830 tonnes of Ni resources, much of the infrastructure intact and potential for more discoveries for an in-ground cost of 50c/lb are you going to say NO?

Compare that with MCR's valuation of approx $6/lb in-ground cost Moore felt he got a bargain. I think he has too and I'm surprised and disappointed the market has not attributed any extra value to this purchase. Although it's not a done deal yet (due diligence pending).

SEC

wns

13-12-2006, 01:36 AM

The $30m purchase sounds like a good deal to me!

Extensive infrastructure in place means easier, quicker & cheaper to dig it out and sell and earn a profit. Its a nice boost to MCR's nickel resources too.

If your business is to sell nickel, why wouldn't you want more of it available waiting to be dug out?? Especially when the infrastructure is mostly already in place, which translates to low cost of production which translates to high profit margins.

Hopefully the half yearly profit announcement will set the MCR share price alight!! I suspect it will.

whiteheron

13-12-2006, 10:08 AM

When the market at large realises what profits MCR is and will be making then there will be another significant rise in the share price
Sometimes the market is very slow to recognise what is obviously a superb mid to long term strategy

MCRs share price has in the past been penalised for what has been perceived as having short term mine lives
Well, no more need to worry --- MCR has more than enough excellent prospects (both well advanced and prospective) to keep it going at very healthy profits for many many years to come
And a heap of cash to carry out the projects without borrowing or capital raising as well !!!
What a marvellous position to be in

JBmurc

28-12-2006, 12:56 PM

-Can't keep this A grade share down long, back to the 2.2Os in the blink of the eye.
without doult- MCR will shine in 2007 -
as will- nickel,zinc,ur,gold,crude

steve fleming

28-12-2006, 01:15 PM

quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

-Can't keep this A grade share down long, back to the 2.2Os in the blink of the eye.
without doult- MCR will shine in 2007 -
as will- nickel,zinc,ur,gold,crude

2007 is looking fantastic for MCR - this time next year may have 2 more additional mines in operation...plus Carnilya Hill to follow shortly after.

From miningnews.net:

More mines for Moore's Mincor

Monday, 11 December 2006
Paul Garvey

MINCOR Resources could boost its nickel mine profile to six operations within 12 months following today's $30 million acquisition of more former WMC nickel mines from private group Goldfields Mine Management.

The McMahon Deeps, Ken North and Durkin Deeps mines picked up in the deal currently contain indicated and inferred resources containing 28,830t of nickel.

Mincor managing director David Moore told MiningNews.net this morning the company would begin almost immediately a fast-tracked feasibility study into developing a mine at the Ken North and McMahon Deeps orebodies.

In addition, Mincor will investigate the feasibility of re-establishing the deep but high-grade Durkin Deeps mine.

Should Ken North-McMahon Deeps get a go-ahead, it could join Mincor's existing under-development South Miitel mine as the fifth and sixth operating Mincor nickel mines near Kambalda in Western Australia.

Moore also said there was huge exploration upside within the newly acquired ground, which has received very little exploration work in recent years despite the soaring price of nickel and the area's prolific nickel history. The ground – which has produced more than 150,000t of nickel – was picked up by GMM in 2001.

"There has been only negligible exploration since 1998 on these immensely prolific tenements, despite the nickel boom – a quirk of history and circumstance that creates an exceptional opportunity for a growth-orientated nickel mining company such as Mincor," Moore said.

Moore said the existing infrastructure at the mines, and their proximity to Mincor's current operations, would help in bringing the mines into production quickly.

tricha

28-12-2006, 09:59 PM

We have not seen the best of Mincor yet fellow investors.

My mate, Jeff a born and bred Kalgoorlieite, we worked togther at a nickel mine, he was telling me recently, his brother worked at the Durkin Deeps mine. They hit a vein of nickel 24% X 2 metres.

Also he said the reason Carnilya Hill was not that sucessful as a mine, was it was shared between BHP and the former WMC, apparently they couldn't agree on anything, hence potential, potential for Mincor.

The other feature of Mincor and their existing mines and newly aquired ones, is they seem to get better the deeper they go.

2007 will be an exciting year for Mincor we can be assured.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Dazza

01-01-2007, 07:00 PM

tricha , jbmerc, sec and co

could u guys post a brief summary of MCR's potential and company info, MC , # of shares on issue, Ni tpa etc etc

i need to find myself a 3rd nickel company.

fully researching over this weekend, and repositioning my portfolio.
also a TARGET PRICE TOO forward eps and pe :D
going for mainly uranium/zinc/nickel

my 2 other nickel shares i have in are FXR and AGM both of which i am very happy with the results from 2006

i have a target price of $1.50 for AGM for 2007

FXR - my target of $2 for 2006 was reached, from when it was at 90 cents.
my 2007 target for FXR i will have to await more production details first.

i havent considered any other Ni companies however, though which is better? MCR/IGO/JBM?

much appreciated for the info

Zinc exposure =
ZFX - target guarantee of $20 - pe 5 , upside $29 - pe 7

CBH - target $1.20

INL - will buy in new year - target 60 cps.

as for uranium , im lost there ><
my picks in 2006
aex/unx - dropped due to poor management IMO
wmeo/ext - didnt go well did it

ags/eve/omc/smm - great stuff :D

core 5 U stocks to hold
ags and eve, with 3 more i dunno?
it will be either
URA ( good replacement for OMC if it is going to produce in 2007)
DYL
CUY
BLR
WMT

not to sure which one to get u c, im tinking of replacing EXT and WMEO for WMT

EXT and WMEO did jack **** in 2006 IMO

tricha

01-01-2007, 07:26 PM

Well Dazza - you are keen, any more than 10 stocks is a handful [:0]

Previous post -

Nickel strike at Carnilya Hill - 6.65 @ 7.8 metre, including 2.87 @ 11.9 %, this is IGO and JBM type proportions, no wonder Mr Moore in his conservative way is excited.

I'm excited - nickel hedging reducing.
- production keeps going up 14,000 tons a year of contained nickel
- now two outstanding strikes, Carnilya Hill and Mariners
- averaging $40,000 a ton for the quarter.

What will they find next

- drilling well advanced at Lake Cowan for Gold
- drilling commencing at Gascoyne Tungsten Project.

.................................................. ...................

And since this post Dazza, bought more tenants

More mines for Moore's Mincor

Monday, 11 December 2006
Paul Garvey

MINCOR Resources could boost its nickel mine profile to six operations within 12 months following today's $30 million acquisition of more former WMC nickel mines from private group Goldfields Mine Management.

The McMahon Deeps, Ken North and Durkin Deeps mines picked up in the deal currently contain indicated and inferred resources containing 28,830t of nickel.

Mincor managing director David Moore told MiningNews.net this morning the company would begin almost immediately a fast-tracked feasibility study into developing a mine at the Ken North and McMahon Deeps orebodies.

In addition, Mincor will investigate the feasibility of re-establishing the deep but high-grade Durkin Deeps mine.

Should Ken North-McMahon Deeps get a go-ahead, it could join Mincor's existing under-development South Miitel mine as the fifth and sixth operating Mincor nickel mines near Kambalda in Western Australia.

Works out at an amazing 48 cents a lb cost for 28,800 tons of proven Nickel.
high-grade Durkin Deeps mine thats right 2 metres @24% nickel![:p]

From memory 197 million shares, compare that to AGM [?]

I could write a whole book on Mincor Dazza.

I think u could safely say, turnover for the quarter is 3500 tons x average $40,000 a ton for 140 million. ( note costs include 35% royality to BHP for smelter costs )

As far as who is best to buy, IGO etc, you will have to work that out, I'm staying with Mr Moore [:p]

Dazza

02-01-2007, 10:19 PM

been reading the back of the last 14 pages of posts

so we have EPS of roughly 50-60cps for 07

and it seems for MCR a PE of 8 is ok?

but for igo/jbm pe of 12 seems to be the norm?

tricha

04-01-2007, 12:59 PM

Not bad Dazza, 55 cents earning, would be a PE ratio of 4.

Just watch when they get Carnilya Hill and Durkin Deeps going this year, yep, 25,000 tons of Nickel a year on the way!

Well, a few days into the new year and Mr Moore already on the prowl! [:p]

How much Nickel does Mincor need, by the looks he's out to kill it

Shored up even more Nickel ground, RAV8, stole it off TTR who are after fools gold :(

If anyone can , Mr Moore can!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

steve fleming

06-01-2007, 01:02 AM

Updated, and impressive, RBC capital research report available.

revised target price: $2.90

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--ohsau.pdf

Dazza

07-01-2007, 11:26 PM

im in at 2.15

and looking to add at 1.80

so pls correction come plssssssss

winner69

08-01-2007, 07:45 PM

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

im in at 2.15

and looking to add at 1.80

so pls correction come plssssssss

180 eh gazza .... nearly there today

Dazza

08-01-2007, 11:43 PM

:D

keep it up, come on baby sell sell sell lol

im keen ass :D

i have a personal target of around 4-4.50 for this baby

SEC

09-01-2007, 01:39 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

Yes Tricha we both know how sound the Ni fundamentals are but that counts for nowt when the herd smells FEAR. This correction in resource stocks has occurred and Wall Street hasn't had a really bad day for months. Just needs one bad day to accelerate the correction and provide the sort of bargains we last saw in May-June, and I'll be waiting.

SEC

Might be time to dust off that old $1.60 top-up bid for MCR I had a few weeks ago. Expect some further (short term) weakness in Ni and Zn on the likes of index rebalancing.

From Bloomberg:

Commodity Index Changes

Zinc dropped $175 to $3,735 a ton, its lowest since Oct. 12. LME zinc inventories gained 725 tons to 90,975 tons.

Nickel and zinc also fell as Dow Jones & Co. started adjusting the weightings of the 19 futures in the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index. This may lead to a shift in $30 billion of index-linked investments in raw materials, including LME-traded metals.

The index's top performer last year was nickel with a 147 percent gain. Its weighting will be reduced to 2.7 percent of the index, from 5.7 percent. Zinc, the second-best index performer, will be reduced to 2.8 percent, from 4.9 percent.

SEC

Bel

09-01-2007, 12:09 PM

I climbed aboard MCR at 186 so a big hearty hello to my fellow passengers. (been wanting to hop on since 140 days but it's taken me this long to come up with the dosh)

I'm looking to hold this one for a minimum of 1-2 years. May we all experience plain sailing on calm seas!

tricha

09-01-2007, 08:26 PM

Welcome aboard Bel!

I'd say Sec if u had have topped up today at $1.86 like Bel u would have done all right.

Yes Sec"Fear is a wonderful thing sometimes"

Lucky to topup another 10,000 myself at $1.93.

Seems to be fund related selling, big volumes, but also good support above $1.90

3 weeks from now we shall see who is selling [?][?]

Cheers[B)][}:)]

JBmurc

09-01-2007, 08:29 PM

MCR-mktcap -371m-
AGM-mrkcap -381m-

Nothing against AGM huge potention
But compared to MCR just doesn't look right to me
by the time AGM is producing 8,000t of nickel ann. in 2009 MCR will be producing twice that amount with divs all the way through.
-like both companys but have sold AGM for more MCR

Dazza

10-01-2007, 12:24 AM

im being patient :D

hehe
i will get my top up soon :D

tricha

10-01-2007, 02:22 AM

Sorry Dazza, your best opportunity was 1.86 cents, once the dumping stops u will be back to your $2.15 +

Have to agree with u JBmurc and I did exactly the same, take a nice profit in AGM to buy more Mincor.

AGM I think 650 million shares and mining in August to ramp to 8,000 tons, whereas in August we could see Carnilya Hill in operation and Mincor ramping up to 18,000 tons.

Also by then Mincor should have defined some gold, copper, tungsten etc.

Its all looking pretty good.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Bel

10-01-2007, 08:51 AM

Im pretty damn happy with where i got in yesterday. I know we are only talking about a few measely cents but when you place and order for 190 but get it for 186 which then shoots up to 195 it just 'feel's like a good omen.

tricha

10-01-2007, 08:46 PM

A great clean out!

Good to see the relentless selling was matched by relentless buying otherwise SEC may have got his wish, $1.60 shares.

How long the fund sell down continues is anyones guess, with 7 million sold over the last 5 days.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Huang Chung

12-01-2007, 12:02 AM

Was expecting a bit of a bounce back by MCR today, but it wasn't to be.

LME warehouse stocks currently 6,300 tonnes.

tricha

12-01-2007, 12:21 AM

These institutions have a huge effect on what happens to Mincor and with the stroke of a button, it can cause a huge plunge, just like when AMP dumped a year back (twice)

Unfortunately there is no major mining company interested in them, trying to maitain a controlling interest (just like IGO is in the same boat), the reason I take it is they are tied down by BHP offtake agreement.

So we will just have to be patient for the quarter report and half yearly, the proof will be in the pudding [:p][:p][:p]

Top 20 Shareholders
As at 3 January 2007

Shareholder
Shareholding
% Issued Capital

National Nominees Limited
21,264,568
10.88

ANZ Nominees Limited
16,627,299
8.51

Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited
13,966,699
7.15

JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited
11,713,609
5.99

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited
8,509,818
4.35

David C Moore
4,500,000
2.30

Cogent Nominees Pty Limited
3,856,780
1.97

Anthony H Shields
1,900,000
0.97

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited
1,725,777
0.88

John W Gardener & Janet L Gardner
1,618,175
0.83

Australian Reward Investment Alliance
1,607,519
0.82

Top 20 Shareholders
As at 1 September 2006

Shareholder
Shareholding
% Issued Capital

Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited
17,191,657
8.83

National Nominees Limited
13,784,699
7.08

ANZ Nominees Limited
10,353,619
5.32

JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited
6,308,065
3.24

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited
5,906,259
3.03

Cogent Nominees Pty Limited
4,867,101
2.50

David C Moore
4,500,000
2.31

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited-Gsi Ecsa
4,099,477
2.11

John W Gardner & Janet L Gardner
3,000,000
1.54

Anthony H Shields
1,900,000
0.98

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited
1,836,578
0.94

Merrill Lynch (Australia) Nominees Pty Ltd
1,687,844
0.87

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited
1,442,182
0.74

Anthony H Shields & Amanda C Nayton
1,300,000
0.67

CS Fourth Nominees Pty Ltd
1,259,134
0.65

Ravex Pty Ltd
1,210,000
0.62

John W Gardner
1,150,000
0.59

Robert E Macmillan & Ruth D Macmillan
1,111,000
0.57

Daphne G Balaam
952,588
0.49

Peter T Blackwell & Daphne C Blackwell
800,000
0.41

Total
84,660,203
43.49

Current shareprice: ACN 072 745 692

tricha

13-01-2007, 02:12 AM

If Mincor averaged $28,000 a ton average in the last quarter.

How does $40,000 a ton stack up for this quarter average.

Does it mean $12,000 a ton extra for unhedged Nickel. Say 2800 tons X $12,000 - BHP's 33% =$8,000

Mincors 2800 tons X extra $8,000 profit = $22,400,000 extra profit on top of last quarters profit.

Does that seem right or am I totally screwed [?][?][?]

What happens when Carnilya and Durkins Deep come on stream, they will be their best mines![:p]

Are we looking at 24,000 tons a year, I reckon!

The way Mincor is going with their investment strategy in picking up new mining area's, they will soon blow IGO out of the water!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

wns

15-01-2007, 04:09 PM

Hi tricha,

My back of the envelope calculations are that MCR will earn something like $40-45m net profit after tax for the first half of FY07, on revenue of about $150m. I'm pretty sure I posted on this thread a while back on how I got these figures. It will be interesting to see what the actual result is. I'm sure their half yearly results announcement in late January will send the share price northwards.

tricha

16-01-2007, 12:00 AM

You did WNS, I getting excited! - Now that Nickel has averaged $40,000 a ton for this last quarter do you see upside [?][?], From WNS, page 11 Mincor " MCR's estimate of revenue for the qtr is $70.65m which is 40% of last year's revenue figure.

FY06

Revenue $174.59m
Operating surplus $69.28m
Capital & development costs $28.23m

Operating surplus - capital & dev costs = $41m

npat was $29.3m (includes a few million from the Tethyan options)

FY07 - Q1

Revenue $70.65m (company estimate)
Operating surplus $38.25m
Capital & development costs $3.76m

Operating surplus - capital & dev costs = $34.5m (compare to the figure of $41m for the whole of last year - except this is just the first qtr!!!!)

Gives us an idea of what the result will be for the whole of FY07!".................................................. ....................

Worth a re-read, Quarterly report ending 30th Sept 2006, why Mincor has what it takes, also note two Uranium prospects in their bow [:p][:p]

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/9fa20ec23b00dc2d93d75e82afa4c732/ASX-MCR-339694.pdf

Cheers [B)][}:)]

steve fleming

16-01-2007, 09:39 PM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Updated, and impressive, RBC capital research report available.

revised target price: $2.90

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--ohsau.pdf

Just had a further look at the RBC report - gives an idea as to what a cash cow MCR is, and will continue to be.

RBC are forecasting MCR's cash to increase from $45m as at June 06 to $204m as at June 2010 (assuming div's paid at a rate of 5cps and a pretty generous capex estimate)

This cash generation and accumulation gives substantial downside protection in the event of any ni price downturn

Even today, RBC estimate MCR's surplus assets (cash & exploration etc) to be approximately $100 mil or 52 cps...if you calculate a 2007 p/e based on the market's valuation of operating assets (ie excluding surplus assets) of say approximately 150 cps, using RBCs 07 estimate of 43.9 cps....then MCR is effectively trading on a p/e of just over 3....incredible

wns

23-01-2007, 01:31 PM

woohoo!!

Just to clarify - the SP has reached new highs today, up 8.7% for the day.

Hopefully there's a few more days of rises left in the lead up to the HY profit announcement in a week or so.

pago

23-01-2007, 09:11 PM

hi,mcr on the rebound,up 9% to close at $2.50.most of nickel stocks did well but mcr stood out.trish are you tempted to take a quick profit on a possible retrace,not me but the dow is worth watching,cheers pago.

tricha

23-01-2007, 10:26 PM

Sell, no way.

I have to agree with AbsolutelyAdvance, Pago "$5 is not out of the question"
The way the nickel price is going, Mr moore has just started.

The good thing now that Mincor is up to $2.50, makes it a lot harder to take over.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Bel

24-01-2007, 10:01 AM

I'm not complaining, %33 gain in 2 weeks. But really what does that mean when as A-A has mentioned 'investors' should really be looking to hold this stock for at least a year.
IMHO

JBmurc

24-01-2007, 06:06 PM

quote:Originally posted by Bel

I'm not complaining, %33 gain in 2 weeks. But really what does that mean when as A-A has mentioned 'investors' should really be looking to hold this stock for at least a year.
IMHO

;)IMHO it means MCR has much room to grow with Nickel going balastic ,and with Mr moore being a A+ MD, why sell Once MCR are producting 20,000t ni per yr with a massive reserve your'd be wish ya had held on,there's very few company's with MCR fundametals[8D]
-JBMURC-largest portfilo holding in MCR

tricha

24-01-2007, 11:46 PM

AMEC - Investor Briefing Series

Sat 10th Feb, Novotel Langley, Perth.

9.10 - 9.45 Mincor presentation, I will be registering tomorrow for a seat, hopefully get to meet Mr Moore and hopefully a few others from Sharetrader with a bit of luck.Anyone going please let me know.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S Amazing what a week can bring or a day, today $2.65 x 2.5 million traded, great to see the volume!;)

SEC

25-01-2007, 01:50 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

-paid 66c for MCR only so at 2.64 I,ll have a 400% profit ;)

Weird - I bought MCR at around the same price yet I'll only have a 300% profit should it get to $2.64.

$2.65 close.... congrats on your 400% gain JBMurc:D, I'm just happy with a 300% increase[|)].

That $1.60 top-up bid is gathering dust again....

SEC

JBmurc

25-01-2007, 09:24 AM

-will have %400 Once it reachs 3.30 SEC;)

-wish I held my first purchase of MCR 18.5c till now

pago

25-01-2007, 05:57 PM

hi ,barclays are now a substantial holder,bought 10 mill shares over 4 mths at $1.99 ave,i trust they are long,good volume for mcr today,1.8 mill and new price holding,$2.69,atm.not a worry while that nickel price stays upside,cheers pago.

Dazza

29-01-2007, 09:58 PM

Hey can anyone decifer the MIR 4 mill selling?

how much did they sell for?

surely not for 57 mill in total? that means they sold for around $14 bucks?

i dun get todays Substantial share holder announcement eh..

tricha

29-01-2007, 11:00 PM

As I posted before Dazza - A great clean out!

Good to see the relentless selling was matched by relentless buying.

How long the fund sell down continues is anyones guess, with 7 million sold over the last 5 days.

Yep the MIR dumb asses.

Gave us a chance to buy Moore Mincor at a great discount. Fancy that selling 3.9 million Mincor for an average of $1.86 a few weeks ago. [xx(][xx(][xx(]

Frankly speaking it's great for Mincor, the danger of MIR having an effect like what AMP had is now minimized with their reducd shareholding.
These fund managers can really do some damage at the push of a button [V]

Yes bring on the quarterly report, full of great reading, I'm sure!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha

29-01-2007, 11:15 PM

Well I'll have to apologize to MIR, loks like they made it up and more putting it into Sally Malay :(

sparrow

30-01-2007, 01:55 PM

IT'S OUT - just about to read it

leonchai

30-01-2007, 05:53 PM

Record operating surplus of 42 million, which gives a PE of 5 for 2007. That is excluding any upside from increased production from Carnilya, Kambalda and the various other exploration targets, as well as on going increasing profits from diminishing hedging obligations...
Super company!

JBmurc

30-01-2007, 06:03 PM

Super company alright should break $3 tomorrow

-Got to be happy with the results so far

whiteheron

30-01-2007, 06:08 PM

As predicted another great quarter
Mincor is consistently so reliable
What a great company

And all that cash and activity
Everything points to such a bright future

Maybe my first 10 bagger in another 2 or 3 years
Hope so ---- purchased for 66c

Dazza

30-01-2007, 07:51 PM

hey which Ni fan was bagging AGM that they only produce 8t

unlike the others igo/smy/mcr that produce 10-15k tonne of Ni a year.

well i tink the reason why AGM is so high up is...

production costs = $63/t.. of ore mined.. mining 600k t/pa = only about 38 mill pa in costs...

therefore 38 mill cost to produce 5700 tonnes of Ni *im only using first year production*

whereas MCR

produces say 3600 tonne a quarter x 4 = 14.4k tonne a year.

but costs are lets say avg $6 per lb of Ni therefore year costs = say 32 mill lbs of Ni x $6 costs = $190 mill in costs...

14400 tonnes of Ni say give LT price of $40k / tonne AUD = 576 mill

therefore 576 - 190 = 386 mill EBITDA pa for MCR

as for AGM i get

38 mill costs - $63/tonne x 600k tonne of ore being proceessed.

5700 tonne Ni produced in first year x $40000 (using USD 30k /tonne AUD X rate = 0.75)

228 mill - 38 mill in costs = 190 mill EBITDA

therefore

MCR - produces about 14400 t of Ni
but EBITDA is 386 mill

yet AGM - produces about 5700 t of Ni
but EBITDA is 190 mill

these marks/analysists is very rough.

ill do a properly one later on in the future.

if some others would like to do it, just do the same, i got my info from AGM's presentations, and also todays MCR quarterly.

as one can see, MCR makes approx 3x more Ni than AGM, yet its profit is only 2x....

therefore its NOT JUST ABOUT HOW MUCH NI PRODUCTION, but costs as u can see plays a major role in this.

regards,
dazza

i plan to do more research, to compare MCR and AGM as i hold them in my LT portfolio, and will top up on whichever one will get me the best results :D

DISC : MCR @ $2.33, AGM @ $0.37

JBmurc

30-01-2007, 11:29 PM

MCR-nett working capital position $81mill nice chuck of change
-really like the growth path MCR are building for the future
-4 soon 6 nickel mines [?]
-another TYC type spin off-from there Gold,tung,lead,zinc projects;)
-market certainly liked todays report up 5%

-Nothing againist AGM but how long have they been producing for DAZZA
-don't get me wrong I have high hopes for AGM 80c+ for 08
-Saxon could be a major driver of the sp for AGM good or bad in the short term,low costs for sure ,
-AGM has 670 mill shares- MCR some 195 mill shares outstanding

-like to know from other MCR, AGM holders what there views are AGM's low costs V's MCR's higher costs,past track record,growth

-On today's news for both MCR got the better respose[?]

Dazza

30-01-2007, 11:36 PM

i hold both so its ok :D

im still trying to work out a target price for MCR....

for their cash costs they state, that excludes the 35% royalty eh?

cash costs 6.50 per lb

Dazza

30-01-2007, 11:41 PM

fellas the main trouble im having in working out a price for MCR

is:

it seems they produced 3750 tonnes of Ni
if selling at $40k AUD = 131 mill in sales...

yet on the quarterly only 78 mill was attributed from sales...

are they still hedged??? and when is the hedging over?

regards
dazza

Dazza

30-01-2007, 11:43 PM

nvm ive found the bottom bit .... at the end..

they have hedged 29% of producing.....

about 1k of Ni from jan 07 - mar 07 will be sold at a dismil $AUD18k!!!!

what kind of hedging is that fellas!!!!!!!!!!!

argggh

SEC

31-01-2007, 12:35 AM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Well I'll have to apologize to MIR, loks like they made it up and more putting it into Sally Malay :(

Rapidly moving their money from one 'trendy' nickel miner to another and severely affecting the price of the affected company (in both directions). 'Buy and hold' seems a foreign concept to them. Good riddance I say.

SEC

tricha

31-01-2007, 02:01 AM

Dazza - they have hedged 29% of producing.....
about 1k of Ni from jan 07 - mar 07 will be sold at a dismil $AUD18k!!!!
what kind of hedging is that fellas!!!!!!!!!!!

The hedging is more like 20%, they should do 3,500 tons for this quarter. This time last year the tons were down this quarter because of the break for the Christmas holidays, I assume the same will have happened this year.

No one in this world can predict the Nickel price, a year ago it went to $16,000 a ton OZ and LME stocks shot up to 38,000 tons. You can't win them all.

By the time AGM starts up their mine Mincor will have banked another 100 million if Nickel stays up.

Also by about that time Mincor will have Carnilya Hill close to production, it will be better than any of the existing mines.
Production should ramp to 20,000 tons a year [:p]

Durkins Deeps wiil soon follow and the same again, a top class mine.
Production should get close to 24,000 tons a year [:p]

As JBmurc stated " -AGM has 670 mill shares- MCR some 195 mill shares outstanding" a slight difference you might say.

AGM will be maybe producing 8,000 tons, remember most new company\projects face major commissioning problems.

And then as JBmurc stated "another TYC type spin off-from there Gold,tung,lead,zinc projects"
MCR will be on track for 24,000 tons, another slight difference.

No, MCR will blow AGM and IGO out of the water in the future.

Cheers [}:)]

[b]P.S forgot Mariners deeps new ore find is a JBM class orebody!

Dazza

31-01-2007, 02:12 PM

true true

i have a 100% target for both agm and mcr

agm price target 125cps
mcr nearly 600cps

steve fleming

31-01-2007, 07:39 PM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Updated, and impressive, RBC capital research report available.

revised target price: $2.90

http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--ohsau.pdf

Well RBC's $2.90 price target was easily hit.

Unfortunately, for what it is worth, according to Bloomberg, post release of the Qtr'ly, RBC have significantly downgraded MCR's 07 forecast eps to 0.365 (from 0.439) and 08 to 0.411 from 0.482

oast

31-01-2007, 09:02 PM

Yes - I was a little disappointed by the quarterly report. The mine operating financials came in under my model prediction in both volume and margin. The report was somewhat vague about growth in resources. In past reports there has been a clear summary of current reserves and resources. The real key to long term value in MCR has to be its mine longevities and I expected the directors to have given a more quantitative signal about these in the quarterly. The tenor of the acquisitions and exploration notes was quite subjective.

RBC's current EPS estimates put MCR on PE's of 8 for 2007 and 7 for 2008 at the current $2.90 price. Given the EPS sensitivity to spot nickel prices, these PEs are starting to get into higher risk territory. Higher spot nickel prices will probably drive the share price higher, but the underlying business case seems to be well priced now.

exposed

31-01-2007, 09:48 PM

im in and it sounds like you fellos dont want to pay up i thought everything looks sweet in the quarterly as long as they keep the nickel coming sweet as i recken.

SEC

31-01-2007, 09:58 PM

quote:Originally posted by oast

In past reports there has been a clear summary of current reserves and resources. The real key to long term value in MCR has to be its mine longevities and I expected the directors to have given a more quantitative signal about these in the quarterly.

MCR does not update their JORC compliant reserves and resources in quarterly reports. They provide an update in September each year.

SEC

winner69

01-02-2007, 07:00 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by oast

In past reports there has been a clear summary of current reserves and resources. The real key to long term value in MCR has to be its mine longevities and I expected the directors to have given a more quantitative signal about these in the quarterly.

MCR does not update their JORC compliant reserves and resources in quarterly reports. They provide an update in September each year.

SEC

Thanks for that SEC .... shows that you understand these sort of things and have your finger on the pulse re the companies you invest in

Much appreciate your input mate

oast

01-02-2007, 11:26 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

MCR does not update their JORC compliant reserves and resources in quarterly reports. They provide an update in September each year.

SEC

Thanks SEC - I can see now why there was no reserve/resource summary on the Dec quarterly report.
The $0.78/lb rise in cash costs vs the Sep qtr surprised me. $0.39 of the increase can be explained by higher royalties due to the higher nickel price. The other $0.39 rise is explained by MCR as lower nickel grades and mine logistical issues. This could be a temporary blip or a more permamnent rise in mining costs for MCR. This cost increase may be a factor in RBC's lowering of its EPS estimates.

sparrow

02-02-2007, 07:10 PM

tricha - (our Guru) - I noticed the change of heading. But you should have written

"JUST SMASHED $3.00"

And another substantial shareholder has joined the party.

tricha

03-02-2007, 02:35 PM

Just wondering if any Mincor followers will be at this next week [?]

Dear Retail Investor

Your registration(s) for the first Investing in Mining Stocks (IMS) forum on Saturday 10 February 2007 at the Novotel Langley Hotel, 221 Adelaide Terrace, Perth, is CONFIRMED.

Complimentary Tea/Coffee and registration will commence at 7.45am with the first company presenting at 8.20am

The seven companies presenting are:

Pioneer Nickel

Integra Mining

Mincor Resources

Westonia Mines

Trafford Resources

Atlas Iron

Goldstream Mining

Listed below is the timetable for the day :

7.45 — 8.15am Registration, Complimentary Tea & Coffee

8.15 — 8.20am Opening Address

8.20 — 8.45am Pioneer Nickel Limited Presentation & Investor Question Time

8.45 — 9.10am Integra Mining Limited Presentation & Investor Question Time

9.10 — 9.35am Mincor Resources NL Presentation & Investor Question Time

9.35 — 10.05am Morning Tea Break

10.05 — 10.30am Westonia Mines Limited Presentation & Investor Question Time

10.30 — 10.55am Trafford Resources Limited Presentation & Investor Question Time

10.55 — 11.05am Comfort Break Between Presentations

11.05 — 11.30am Atlas Iron Limited Presentation & Investor Question Time

11.30 — 11.55am Goldstream Mining NL Presentation & Investor Question Time

12.00 — 1.00pm Complimentary Networking Luncheon

Just a reminder regarding AMEC’s cancellation policy as stated on the registration form:

This event is free for attendees. However, AMEC reserves the right to invoice you for $26.00 (catering costs) IF YOU REGISTER BUT DO NOT ATTEND. Cancellations must be received at least 3 working days prior to the event to avoid this charge.

We look forward to seeing you on the 10th February.

Regards

Tracy

Tracy Porter

Executive Assistant to the Chief Executive and Office Manager

Association of Mining & Exploration Companies

Phone : 1300 738 184 Fax : 1300 738 185

tracy.porter@amec.org.au

www.amec.org.au

AMEC is the peak industry body for junior and mid-size mineral exploration and mining companies in Australia.

Huang Chung

05-02-2007, 12:54 AM

Amazing how S/T is the home of the MCR bulls and Aussie Stock Forums (at least for the moment) seems to be the home of the MCR bears.......

tricha

05-02-2007, 08:23 PM

Well what a run, took profit today, my exposure to Mincor is way out of proportion. A 33% gain in a month.[:p]

Mincor is now due for a correction, yes a 33% gain or a $1.00 a share, in a few weeks. That's out there.

Will it correct, who knows, it's totally in the control of the fund managers, at the push of a button, it will change in the blink of an eye.
So yes, crystal ball stuff here.

My bet it will correct, in the short term.
But it could very well carry on going up.

Long term Mincor still remains a very good share, the next Jubilee in the making, great things take time.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

pago

05-02-2007, 08:51 PM

hi tricha,have you been spooked by the red kite hedge fund issue?,cheers pago.

SEC

05-02-2007, 09:40 PM

Yeah well done on MCR Tricha, now way way overpriced wrt IGO (even has a higher PE than IGO for the first time since I can recall). But with Barclays (over)buying there may well be further upside.

SEC

tricha

06-02-2007, 01:00 AM

Thanks for that Sec!

Pago- spooked,"have you been spooked by the red kite hedge fund issue?"

Yes a little spooked, went over heaps of options over the weekend.

I still own a hell of a lot of Mincor. Way too much proportionally still.
I have broken all the sound investment rules!

But I did take $30,000 out of the market from today to pay of some of my mortgage.
$23,000 for PEM who I rate as good as Mincor when it comes to management and assets. ( but it's still new to me, so to a degree a little unknown)
The rest sitting there waiting for opportunity ( Patience!!!! I tell myself)

The big problem and scary fact that faces Mincor, Independence Group and Perilya and many more is - The Super fund managers control the price at their whim, so over a few lattes on Friday night, they can buy, hold or sell!
All we can do is sit there and [:p] or [8)] or [xx(]

All three have no major stakeholders other than Fund Managers, MCR and IGO, I believe will not be taken over because all their Nickel has to go through BHP. ( although IGO's gold play could change their outlook)

PEM however is a different kettle of fish, ripe to be taken out, where as most of the other Zinc players have a major miner holding a sizable stake.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Zephyrus

06-02-2007, 01:43 AM

Intersuisse Report 01 February 2007 rates MCR as accumulate. Refer link below.
http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--chuzi.pdf

duncan macgregor

06-02-2007, 07:49 AM

tricha, Bad move to try and pick the top or the bottom. Let a share run in an uptrend keep buying only raise your following stop when you think that it is overpriced. Golden rule number one is never buy into a down trend allow it to start on the journey back. Nothing fundamentaly has changed with MCR or PEM let the market tell you when to buy and sell. Only excuse is you require the money for other purposes but not this time when you bought PEM. macdunk

sparrow

06-02-2007, 08:36 AM

Summing Up in Itersuisse Report mentioned above:

"Impact

The latest production and ore sales information for MCR indicate the company is on track to achieve record earnings in FY07. We
have marginally lifted our FY07 and FY08 earnings forecasts for MCR to take into account the treatment of lower grade ore and
higher nickel prices so that we now expect the company to report profits in FY07 and FY08 of about $85M and $91M respectively,
equivalent to earnings per share of 43.1 cents and 45.4 cents respectively.
While we recognise MCR has traditionally paid only modest levels of dividends, we estimate the company will have a 240% higher
free cash flow of about $128M in FY07 and although free cash flow is forecast to decline to about $77M in FY08 (when actual tax
payments rise significantly from the profit jump in FY07), it will still be more than enough to enable the company to pay more
generous dividends in those years and in the future. We believe MCR is easily able to make total dividend payments of 10.0 cents
per share in FY07 and FY08 (which represent relatively modest payout ratios of only 23% and 21% respectively) after outlaying
funds for feasibility studies and developments along with the $30M cash component for the acquisition of the additional Kambalda
interests (which also involves subsequent royalty payments) and expanded exploration programs.
We believe MCR is still the most attractively priced nickel stock in the Australian market and that despite its strong share price
performance over the past few weeks, during which the price has moved up from around $2 to a peak of $2.97 today. At the current
price, the stock is still only priced on a prospective price/earnings (P/E) ratio of about 6.8 times and 6.5 times for FY07 and FY08
respectively. These P/E ratios are significantly below the P/E ratios for the other Australian nickel stocks, as we estimate the P/Es
for them range from around 9 to 10 times for Sally Malay Mining (SMY), Minara Resources (MRE) and Independence Group (IGO)
to about 15 times for Jubilee Mines (JBM) and over 20 times for Western Areas (WSA) in FY07 although WSAs FY08 prospective
P/E should decline to about 7 as the newly begun Forestania mining operation ramps up to full production.
We believe the market has been slow to fully re-rate MCR because of MCRs prolonged period of underperformance in the past, but
that the company is now on a strong growth path and is well placed to develop into a solid, mid tier diversified mining company over
the next few years based on its strong nickel earnings and base. We see a target share price for MCR over the next year or so of at
least $3.50 as the company brings on additional nickel output notwithstanding a decline in the nickel price over that time.
Accordingly, we reiterate our previous positive recommendation on MCR for risk tolerant investors seeking growing returns in the
resources sector and recommend accumulation of the stock."

Zephyrus

06-02-2007, 03:25 PM

Have you had a look at INL Tricha? Not much coverage coverage here but has a large following over at Hot Copper.

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Thanks for that Sec!

Pago- spooked,"have you been spooked by the red kite hedge fund issue?"

Yes a little spooked, went over heaps of options over the weekend.

I still own a hell of a lot of Mincor. Way too much proportionally still.
I have broken all the sound investment rules!

But I did take $30,000 out of the market from today to pay of some of my mortgage.
$23,000 for PEM who I rate as good as Mincor when it comes to management and assets. ( but it's still new to me, so to a degree a little unknown)
The rest sitting there waiting for opportunity ( Patience!!!! I tell myself)

The big problem and scary fact that faces Mincor, Independence Group and Perilya and many more is - The Super fund managers control the price at their whim, so over a few lattes on Friday night, they can buy, hold or sell!
All we can do is sit there and [:p] or [8)] or [xx(]

All three have no major stakeholders other than Fund Managers, MCR and IGO, I believe will not be taken over because all their Nickel has to go through BHP. ( although IGO's gold play could change their outlook)

PEM however is a different kettle of fish, ripe to be taken out, where as most of the other Zinc players have a major miner holding a sizable stake.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

pago

06-02-2007, 09:29 PM

hi tricha,i think you are prudent to adhere to your portfolio/risk management style.its trite to say but holding a large number of shares in a stock after a strong run up can be a quick way to lose big paper profits if it retraces,it may or maybe not be near its top,but selling 10/15% ,locks in some profit,leaving the rest to be monitored.in my opinion its a sensible strategy and one i apply.ie,risk/reward.dont be greedy,still in there.thanks for your candid reply,mcr down 4.6% to 289,in line with the resources generally,i see more upside ,given no surprises,cheers pago.

Bel

07-02-2007, 10:16 AM

How can one predict short term SP with any accuracy? One announcement could send MCR over $4.00 and leaving you kicking yourself on not letting your profits run or another could send it below $1.50 leaving you thinking, i spotted that one coming.

All we can do as investors is assume that MCR is a great stock based on what we do know and that it hasn't reached its full potential.

David Hardman

07-02-2007, 11:32 AM

Surely MCR will be well supported until the divi is announced in a few weeks.

LME stocks at their lowest level in 15 years.

tricha

12-02-2007, 08:42 PM

Amec presentation and my perception of it - One for the future, this little company is switched on.

Title - " An unmatched growth profile in Nickel"

Mr Moore and co, are no "show ponies", they are totally dedicated, focused and go the smart way about doing business.

Hence the McMahon and Durkin purchase, they are getting it dirt cheap, Mr Moore implied if this area had been floated, it would have been worth 100 Million.
The upside of this is huge, if you care to look at the map in the Amec presentation. The ore channels are open, Potential, Potential, Potential and quite frankly Mr Market just does not recognise it. But Mincor certainly does, they are experts and they certainly know how to define ore body extensions.

As far as dividends go he stated that 25% of profit would be paid, while Mincor was going through this high growth period.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Harry7

13-02-2007, 06:40 PM

Article in today's AFR - elevation of MCR into the ASX200 from 2nd March '07 should add impetus to it's SP

SEC

13-02-2007, 09:58 PM

quote:Originally posted by Vic

Article in today's AFR - elevation of MCR into the ASX200 from 2nd March '07 should add impetus to it's SP

Not confirmed yet - brokers are just guessing probable and possible inclusions. The announcement of changes will be made on March 2, actual inclusion won't be until about March 17.

SEC

tricha

16-02-2007, 01:57 AM

What does this mean for Mincor, we are half way through this quarter averaging 50,000 a ton, OZ. Simply add around 20% to the profit for the quarter if this price continues.

Nickel Rises for a Third Day in London on Falling Stockpiles

By Brett Foley

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel gained for a third straight session in London, trading near a record, as speculation grew that dwindling stockpiles would create a shortage of the metal.

Metal due for delivery from London Metal Exchange warehouses, known as canceled warrants, more than tripled to 2,118 metric tons yesterday, accounting for 85 percent of inventories. Stockpiles of nickel tracked by the LME gained 66 tons to 3,990 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. That's less than one day of global consumption estimated at 1.4 million tons this year by Deutsche Bank.

``The canceled warrants are a major issue, and if these drawdowns continue we could be looking at a case of zero stocks,'' Tariq Salaria a London-based metals analyst at Standard Chartered Plc, said today in a phone interview.

Nickel for delivery in three months on the LME gained $750, or 2 percent, to $38,250 a metric ton as of 9:31 a.m. local time. It traded at a record $38,950 on Jan. 26.

The metal may average $35,057 a ton this year, 31 percent more than earlier estimated, Gerald Burg, National Australia Bank's minerals and energy economist, said today in a report.

Among other LME-traded metals, copper gained $50, or 0.9 percent, to $5,775, and zinc increased $35, or 1.1 percent, to $3,345. Aluminum advanced $12 to $2,840, and lead rose $30 to $1,725. Tin traded at a 17-year high again, rising $100, or 0.8 percent, to $12,800.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Foley in London at

sparrow

16-02-2007, 07:50 AM

And the latest - just posted at end of LME trading today:
__________________________________________________ _________________

Today's official LME nickel closing - cash - $18.87/lb - 3 month buyer - $17.55/lb. Today was pretty much a repeat of yesterday, with inventories looking gloomy, and world economies sending positive signals. Nickel trading hit a new all time record high at $17.92/lb (3 month) and ended the day at that point - $17.92/lb ($39,500/tonne).

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disappointed at the price movements yesterday of the resource stocks I follow : (MCR, BRW, AZC, CFE, TTR ) but maybe today will see some more positice action.

Sparrow

steve fleming

17-02-2007, 02:27 PM

After riding MCR from 70c odd, am now taking some profits.

And i see Huntley recommend same:

Industry average cash costs before royalties in 2006 were US$3.00/lb compared to MCR’s US$3.64. Cash costs for the least competitive nickel miners are US$4.00-5.00/lb. Nickel prices averaged a buoyant US$11/lb in 2006 and all made excellent margins. This will not always be the case and leverage is a two edged sword. As nickel supply catches demand over the next couple of years and prices normalise, high cost miners will suffer disproportionately

With nickel soaring beyond US$18/lb, the tailwind enjoyed by small nickel miners for the past few years must be very close to peaking. Now is a prudent time to take profits after an excellent 2006. Our downgraded Reduce recommendation reflects unrealistic spot nickel prices, not company management which has an excellent exploration, production and acquisition record.

tricha

18-02-2007, 03:31 PM

A good move Steve, Greed is the killer in any market.

Mincor is certainly going through some consolidation.[8)]

I just hope Maddunk does not tell u off as well "Bad move to try and pick the top or the bottom. Let a share run in an uptrend keep buying only raise your following stop when you think that it is overpriced. Golden rule number one is never buy into a down trend allow it to start on the journey back. Nothing fundamentaly has changed with MCR or PEM let the market tell you when to buy and sell. Only excuse is you require the money for other purposes but not this time when you bought PEM. macdunk"

I still hold 80,000 and have been in since 42 cents and topped up to 72 cents, the ones I sold more than paid off my initial investment.
On the re-investment,PEM are doing very nicely as well.( I rate PEM as the best Zinc play, same as Mincor to nickel)

But do not get me wrong, Mincor has still a long way to go. The next Jubilee Mines, they did not go from $3 to $16 in a straight line and boy, did those clever brokers can [xx(] them for years as being to high, sell,sell, sell.

The upside, is going to 20,000 tons a year with Carnilya Hill, Durkins\Mc Mahon and Mariners Deeps, which in my oponion will blow the existing mines out of the water as far as high grades and lower costs.[:p]
And as we all know, there is all the other potentials ..........., [:p] getting to many to name.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

duncan macgregor

18-02-2007, 04:56 PM

TRICA, Mad dunk or whatever you call me says never sell in a confirmed uptrend, never buy in a confirmed downtrend. You did both [V]. This is playing to your emotions. Emotion is the one thing to stamp out in the investing business, it can cost a lot when it goes wrong. I think your buy is turning out ok but make a habit of this emotional motovated impulsive trading and its down the gurgler.
macdunk

Sid

20-02-2007, 01:23 PM

just out:

MINCOR DELIVERS RECORD $37.2M FIRST-HALF
PROFIT
• 271% increase in net profit after tax to $37.2 million.
• EBITDA up 150% to $67.8 million
• Revenue up 85% to $147.1 million
• Earnings per Share up 272% to 19 cents per share
• Interim Dividend up 200% to 6 cents per share

bull....

20-02-2007, 05:51 PM

Good result looking at prices and fundamentals of mcr v say smy,igo,mre looks like mcr is cheap on price vrs these.

SEC

20-02-2007, 11:30 PM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

As far as dividends go he stated that 25% of profit would be paid, while Mincor was going through this high growth period.

This HY it was more like 1/3 payout with the 6c dividend, not that I'm complaining.

What really impressed me with the report was the operating cashflow - $67M in six months - MCR is a serious cash cow!

With eps of 19c and nickel prices currently well above the average over the previous six months, broker upgrades should be forthcoming (current consensus for FY07 37cps).

SEC

tricha

21-02-2007, 02:00 AM

Yes excellent result and yes, better than expected dividend and yes Moore to come. ( Nickel trying to crack the $19 ilb = much more profit to Mincor this quarter )

Mincor revels in the highs of nickel price records with huge profit increase

By: John Chadwick
Posted: '20-FEB-07 07:57' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2006

LONDON (Mineweb.com) -- Results from Kambalda (Western Australia) nickel producer Mincor Resources (ASX: MCR) demonstrate how good it is to be in nickel today. Mincor has delivered its strongest-ever half-year financial performance, with record production and nickel prices generating a 271% increase in net profit after tax to Aus$37.2 million (US$29.2 million). The record profit underlines the value of Mincor’s aggressive growth strategy, under which the Company is targeting the development of up to three new nickel mines over the next 18 months.

The first-half net profit – which compares with just Aus$10 million net profit for the previous corresponding period and eclipses the 2005/06 full-year profit of Aus$29.3 million – was struck on an 85% increase in sales revenue to Aus$147.1 million (2005: Aus$79.7 million). Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the period increased by 150% to Aus$67.8 million (2005: Aus$27.1 million), while net operating cash flows were Aus$66.7 million for the six months, representing an almost fivefold increase on the previous corresponding period (2005: Aus$11.3 million).

The result further strengthens Mincor’s balance sheet, with cash reserves rising to Aus$87.4 million at the end of 2006 and net assets almost doubling to Aus$123.5 million (after excluding the impact of the fair value adjustment on derivative financial instruments). Return on equity (as adjusted) is 60% on an annualized basis and the company remains debt free.

The first half result was underpinned by strong production from Mincor’s four Kambalda mines, but it was only marginally up on the previous period, at 6,888 t of nickel-in-concentrate (2005: 6,754 t). The principal driver of the increased revenue and earnings was an average realised nickel price of Aus$14.26/lb for the 6 months to the end of 2006 compared with Aus$7.74/lb for the previous corresponding period. This resulted in an increase in average cash margin to Aus$8.11/lb payable nickel compared with Aus$2.93/lb previously.

Cash operating costs increased to Aus$6.15/lb from A$4.81/lb previously, reflecting a general rise in costs as well as higher levels associated with lower nickel grades resulting from production maximization strategies.

Mincor’s managing director, David Moore said “We are delighted with this exceptional first-half result, which reflects a strong operational performance at an opportune time of record nickel prices. It comes as we prepare to enter a new phase of production growth, driven by a combination of exploration success and prudent acquisitions that have generated a pipeline of potential new mine developments in our core nickel business.”

Recent exploration successes include the discovery at Carnilya Hill near Kambalda and new discoveries at the Mariners mine. The current Aus$30 million acquisition of the old Kambalda mines of McMahon and Durkin and the recent farm-in joint venture at the RAV 8 nickel mine near Ravensthorpe have added further near-term development and brownfields exploration opportunities. “We are currently conducting feasibility studies on three separate nickel projects and, if these are successful, we could soon enter another major phase of new mine development that will establish Mincor’s growth profile well into the next decade,” Moore commented. “In the meantime, our exploration effort will remain strong, both in nickel and in other commodities where we believe our expertise is applicable”.

Mincor has three exploration drilling rigs operating in the Kambalda Nickel District, and is working on completing the a

Bel

21-02-2007, 01:52 PM

I unfortunately disembarked MCR today at 301 so that i could take advantage of ADI's massive SP fall today. %60 gain in 6 weeks.

There is an unwritten law that paniced investors must be taken advantage of IMHO.

Hope to get back on the MCR ship sometime in the next few months.

David Hardman

21-02-2007, 02:09 PM

Interesting to see some of the press focus on MCR's decreasing production rates (%8 down on previous qtr) and lower nickel grades.

Any idea why production rates fell in the qtr? Do we expect this continue?

Why the lower grades as well? Mincor blames it on "production maximisation stratagies".. What does this mean? Surely they would be targeting what ever high grade stuff they have while Ni prices are so high.

Is this something we should be concerned about?

SEC

21-02-2007, 03:37 PM

quote:Originally posted by David Hardman

Interesting to see some of the press focus on MCR's decreasing production rates (%8 down on previous qtr) and lower nickel grades.

Any idea why production rates fell in the qtr? Do we expect this continue?

Why the lower grades as well? Mincor blames it on "production maximisation stratagies".. What does this mean? Surely they would be targeting what ever high grade stuff they have while Ni prices are so high.

Is there something we should be concerned about?

If you read the quarterly report, you'll note that tonnes of ore mined was similar to the previous two quarters. The reason why the nickel-in-concentrate production was down was due to the lower ore grades mined. The 'production maximisation strategy' is an attempt to smooth out cashflow from year to year. Deliberate targeting of lower grade ore during times of historically high prices, and mining the higher grade ores when (if) prices retreat. IGO is employing the same tactic.

If MCR targeted the best grade ore now then the potential profits will become more lumpy if they move to a low grade section when (if) Ni prices retreat. The market discounts companies with lumpy profits...

The key statistic is the tonnes of ore mined. If that decreased by 8% from the previous quarter I would be concerned. But it hasn't, so I'm not.

SEC

info

21-02-2007, 03:41 PM

quote:Originally posted by David Hardman

Interesting to see some of the press focus on MCR's decreasing production rates (%8 down on previous qtr) and lower nickel grades.

Any idea why production rates fell in the qtr? Do we expect this continue?

Why the lower grades as well? Mincor blames it on "production maximisation stratagies".. What does this mean? Surely they would be targeting what ever high grade stuff they have while Ni prices are so high.

Is there something we should be concerned about?

As I understand when prices are high they mine the low grade resource this is the opposite as to when prices are low and they mine the high grade resource, the main reason for this is that it may not be economical to mine the low grade when prices are low as the margin will be smaller, this way the mine life can also be extended. In essence its best to save the high grade resource for a rainy day. So no this is nothing to be concerned about.

bull....

21-02-2007, 03:58 PM

The only thing to worry about is missing out on this opportunity.

When you think as each quarter passes there hedges are reducing and there average nickel price goes up,assuming no crash in spot price , imagine over the course of the next 2 yrs a higher av nickel price and an increase in production from the 3 new mines what this will do to there earnings staggering really.
share price hasnt really reflected this yet but I would imagine as more details come about reserves and new mines this share will be rerated very strongly.

David Hardman

21-02-2007, 04:11 PM

Thanks guys.

The "production maximisation strategies" make sense now :)

Agree the prospects look great for the coming few years.

Just one gets a little trigger happy when sitting on 200%+ returns

Zephyrus

21-02-2007, 08:26 PM

PEM does exactly the same thing.

I'm not sure if this is the most efficient way of doing things coz in mind the actual cumulative profits will be less. IMO it would be better to produce more payable nickel at the higher rate, earn the money now, then put that money to good use for the benefit of us shareholders. Having said that, I suppose it does reduce lumpiness & possibly gives a better perception to the investing public.

Cheers,
Z.

Huang Chung

21-02-2007, 09:06 PM

So many variables...commodity price, $USD Aussie dollar cross rates, hedging position, costs of production, interest rates etc, etc......if some of these go against you, you might appreciate having some nice high grade ore to get you over the hump....it could be a matter of survival.

SEC

21-02-2007, 11:04 PM

IGO profit announcement out tonight - upgraded to $39.9M from last month's announcement.

Interesting to compare IGO v MCR results. IGO's profit was higher than MCR's yet was achieved with 40% less nickel output. Reflects the difference in operating and depreciation costs between the two companies. Shame about the 6c div though, more stingy than MCR!

I still think IGO is cheap wrt its peers, including MCR.

SEC (MCR IGO)

Zephyrus

22-02-2007, 02:23 AM

It's hard to tell which is cheaper really because you have to take into account the growth aspect of each company before attaching a value.

Both IGO & MCR still looking good tho. They'll probably have around the same FY result. IGO's mc is 20% less but so is their cashflow.

Also check out Lion Ore Mining (LIM), the equal of both IGO & MCR, imo. The Full Year Result is out around March 8. Do some research before you miss the boat.

Not holding IGO (at the moment). Currently holding MCR & LIM (plus AGM).

Cheers,
Z.

Zephyrus

22-02-2007, 07:25 PM

Well, decided I couldn't stand back & watch any longer so dropped part of my MCR holding & bought back into IGO.

MCR is still my largest nickel holding but AGM, LIM, & IGO aren't far behind. I'd consider them all to be fair value in relation to each other so I'm happy to spread my risk.

Z.

Huang Chung

22-02-2007, 07:44 PM

Z

Did you see today's announcement from LIM that they were going to delist from the ASX?

Doesn't change anything fundamentally, but I guess things might become a bit more messy / costly for holders.

bull....

22-02-2007, 08:29 PM

certainly seems someone is selling a lot of mcr recently holding the price back while other nickel stocks race off, off course this can only last temporary.
This chart action is very encouraging.

Zephyrus

22-02-2007, 09:08 PM

Hi Huang Chung.

Yeah, I did see the announcement. It's a bit of a bummer but won't be happening until June.

We'll see the Full Year Results well before then however (in about 2 weeks), which will no doubt drive the share price higher.

Remember too, the ASX price for LIM is driven by the TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) price, because that's where it's main listing is.

When LIM is delisted from the ASX, the transfer to the TSX will be done free of charge, organised by LIM. I can choose to hold until that time or sell out before, if I think it's going to be too much of a hassle to sell through the TSX. On the other hand, it may be an opportunity to look further abroad to other stock exchanges, with the TSX being a good place to start.

Cheers,
Z.

tricha

22-02-2007, 11:53 PM

"Happy Times"

Front page of the latest Mining Chronicle.

And to top it off Smart Investor rate it a top take out contender, as well as IGO and SMY.
( Personally think they have got it wrong about take over, all 3 from memory have to supply Nickel West(BHP), end of story, otherwise why else has a major player not been envolved as yet)

The key to Mincor is not the now, but the shortterm future of ramping up to 20,000 tons and thereby reducing their hedging percentage.

Hopefully at lower costs as all three should be higher grade and lower cost than the existing 3.2 mines.

Also news should start appearing soon about drill results from all the pieces of the pie.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

David Hardman

02-03-2007, 06:25 PM

CEO Moore takes $4.1m off the table.

Sold about 1/4 of his holding.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MCR&E=ASX&N=353700

winner69

02-03-2007, 06:52 PM

rebalancing his investments ..... yeah right

steve fleming

02-03-2007, 11:45 PM

quote:Originally posted by Vic

Article in today's AFR - elevation of MCR into the ASX200 from 2nd March '07 should add impetus to it's SP

Missed the cut....

JBmurc

05-03-2007, 01:53 PM

Liked the look of COE 42c so much I sold out of MCR for 3.04 ;)(then went to 3.30)then looks much like last time I'll be buying back in alot lower 2.60 looks good really getting hammered atm

bull....

05-03-2007, 03:27 PM

im out to now like the company but no good holding when market sentiment goes sour. I imagine when base metals get hammered as they are the only thing not yet mcr will follow unfortunately.

tricha

17-03-2007, 05:49 PM

Mincor ready for the next leg up too $4.00 and it will happen fast!

Simple really, $62,000 at ton OZ and there should be no let up to the Nickel shortage in the short to medium term.

This quarters tonnage will be well up on last quarter.

And all this equals a mega profit!

And soon we will be seeing a hell of a lot of exciting news, long term I can not see why Mincor should not go to $10 a share [:p]

Lastest broker report states out perform and a target of $3.20, they are way of the mark as per usual.

In the WA news today as a buy :)

Nickel March 16,13:54
Bid/Ask 22.3394 - 22.4755
Change +0.5292 +2.43%
Low/High 21.4700 - 22.5813

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha

18-03-2007, 04:48 PM

Posted by David Hardman and yes an excellent report - http://www.allegiance-mining.com.au/docs/Articles/FDC%20Nickel%20Sector%20Report%20-%2026%20Feb%202007.pdf

But Julian Emery and Brock Salier analyst on Mincor, "Only have modest reserves and resources" -

All I can say is go and smell the coffee, call yourselfs analysts[?][?][?]

Title - " An unmatched growth profile in Nickel"

Mr Moore and co, are no "show ponies", they are totally dedicated, focused and go the smart way about doing business.

Hence the McMahon and Durkin purchase, reserve of 28,000 tons and they are getting it dirt cheap, $1.00 a ilb.
Mr Moore implied if this area had been floated, it would have been worth 100 Million.
The upside of this is huge, if you care to look at the map in the Amec presentation. The ore channels are open, Potential, Potential, Potential and quite frankly Mr Market just does not recognise it. But Mincor certainly does, they are experts and they certainly know how to define ore body extensions.
( my personal view on this ore body is they will find another 100,000 tons of high grade nickel)

Then theres Carnilya Hill (high grade) and the Mariners Deeps ( high grade).

And their existing mines are open!

Some of these so called analysts could not run a piss up in a brewery:(:(

tricha

19-03-2007, 11:52 PM

BASE METALS
EXPLORER IN A HURRY
New acquisitions to elevate Mincor’s nickel output
Growing Australian nickel miner, Mincor, is expanding its high grade mining operations in the Kambalda area of Western Australia through acquisition and exploration.

Author: Ross Louthean
Posted: Monday , 19 Mar 2007

PERTH -

Mincor Resources NL, now the leading nickel miner in the Kambalda region of Western Australia, is expecting to lift its group annual production of contained nickel in fiscal 2008/09 to 20,000 tonnes.

Current group production is about 13,500tcontained nickel from ore delivered to BHP Billiton's Kambalda concentrator.

More positive studies and exploration results have come from the Carnilya Hill mine on the eastern side of Kambalda and, once all agreements are ratified, on taking up other former WMC Kambalda mines, aggressive exploration and mine development studies will begin there.

Mincor's executive director in charge of new projects and exploration, Jim Reeve, told Mineweb today that a new resource was expected this month for Carnilya Hill as a first step towards an objective of getting the operation to mine ramp-up by early 2008.

The mine had been held by View Resources Ltd which was mining a shallow and small resource elsewhere on the mine lease, and Mincor farmed-in on the basis that the lava flow system may continue below where mining had earlier pinched out for the joint venture of WMC and BHP about a decade ago.

Mincor had successfully boosted the resource at its first mine acquisition from WMC - the Miitel mine - to the point where it has more resources than with which it had started. Its geologists believed the chance of repetition was strong at Carnilya Hill as was at Miitel. They were proven right!

Mincor is an explorer in a hurry, driven by a good exploration and mining performance at four mines - Miitel, Mariners, Redross and the very mature Wanaway mine, all on the Widgiemooltha Dome, adjacent to the Kambalda Dome. Its expansion will come from acquisition on the Kambalda Dome - 70% of Carnilya Hill, and the McMahon-Kenn and Durkin mining complexes that were owned by private group Goldfields Mine Management (GMM), which is undertaking remnant mining on the Kambalda district's old warhorse, the Otter-Juan. Mincor is paying GMM $A30 million ($US23.84M) for the mines which have been mothballed for years but have significant unmined resources and reserves.

Reeve said the exploration budget for the current financial year was $A13 M ($US10.332 M).

A more distant quest is the Rav8 deposit near Ravensthorpe that was mined by Tectonic Resources. Mincor can earn 80% by spending $5 M on exploration over three years. The Mincor team believes there is scope to find a repetition of the mined orebody at depth and, assuming the nickel price remains high, it would look to trucking the ore 400 kilometres to the BHP Billiton nickel concentrator in Kambalda - where all other ore is delivered.

The historic grade at Rav8 was 3.46% nickel, so Mincor would be looking for discovering ore at around that grade. Jim Reeve said the company estimated it would cost about $A50/tonne ($US39.73/t).

In a recent interview Mincor's chief executive, David Moore, said Rav8 had a geological system that could generate a high-grade orebody "and it's the downplunge of that system that we're interested in." The mine, he said, only went down to 300 metres depth, which is "pretty shallow by modern standards."

"We are targeting a million tonnes of new ore at 3.5% nickel" he reportedly said.

On the Kambalda acquisition there is a total resource of 676,670 tonnes grading 4.3% nickel. This includes the Durkin Deeps which has 284,810t at 4.6 g/t for which there is a blueprint to explore and develop by cutting a spur drive off GMM's Otter mine (under agreement with GMM), an access length of less than 1 kilometre.

If exploration-development on McMahon-Ken and Durkin goes well then Mincor may be looking at commissioning p

tricha

20-03-2007, 12:00 AM

Jim Reeve has only had a brief period when he hasn't been involved with Kambalda. He began there on student vacation work in 1968, became a geologist there a few years later - including chief geologist at the Durkin and McMahon mines, and was elevated to senior positions and then managing director of WMC's nickel business from 1993-99. After he and a team left WMC before the BHP takeover, he joined Mincor as soon as it secured the Miitel mine.

The connection [:p]Ding, ding, ding, Mincor know Durkins and McMahon mines like the back of their hand.

It's money in the bank, this purchase will elavate them into the Jubilee Mines status!

These two mines will be worth billions and they know it, and all the brokers and analysts wouldn't have a clue [^][^][^]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha

22-03-2007, 09:24 PM

This articule bodes well for Mincors future, the nickel price should remain high for the next few years at least, allowing Mincor to get 20,000 tons + production on stream and in that high nickel price( I'm personally picking 25,000 tons as Mincor are ulta conservative )

I'll maitain my $4.00 price target to be hit around the end of April and give it a 18 monthes $10 is in its realm. Hence Mincor shares go into the bottom drawer[:o)]

Cheers [}:)]

[b]China`s stainless steel output may rise 37% this year

Shanghai, March 21: China, world's biggest producer of stainless steel, will probably increase output by 37 per cent this year to 7.35 million metric tonnes, metals research firm Heinz H Pariser said.

The country made 5.36 million tonnes of stainless steel in 2006, Beatrix Nowak, chief analyst, told a conference today in Foshan, Guangdong province. Global output is estimated at 31 million tonnes this year, up from 28 million tonnes last year, Nowak added.

China is now the world's largest consumer of nickel, used to make steel resistant to corrosion. The projected higher output would boost consumption of nickel. Nickel prices have tripled in the past year, reaching a record 48,500 dollar a tonne. Nickel prices fell 0.7 per cent to 44,300 dollar this afternoon on the London Metal Exchange.

Stockpiles tracked by the exchange plunged 89 per cent in the past year to 3,648 tonnes, equivalent to less than two days of global consumption.

Bureau Report

whiteheron

22-03-2007, 09:48 PM

Tricha

I think that your price targets and timeframes are a bit optomistic, but by no means impossible given a bit more time

Mincor, I believe, is an exceptional share and mine are not for sale in the forseeable future
A healthy dividend as well

It is all good --- the minelives no doubt will be extended significantly as well
Reserves, mines and production all on the increase (by both exploration and acquisitions)

And what about all that money !!!

There are few shares as good as MCR
I also fancy QGC (got in at a very low price)
Lots of upside in the next 2 or 3 years

tricha

27-03-2007, 01:13 AM

Whiteheron - "It is all good --- the minelives no doubt will be extended significantly as well
Reserves, mines and production all on the increase (by both exploration and acquisitions)"

Thats the key to Mincors on going sucess, minelife and 25,000 tons a year production in 18 monthes,give it 18 monthes and $10 is in its realm, why [?][?][?] means hedging diluted and the new mines will be far better than anything we have seen so far.

Its great to disagree but agree Whiteheron -" There are few shares as good as MCR"
Nickel Climbs on Speculation Supply Won't Meet Growing Demand

By Claudia Carpenter and Brett Foley

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Nickel rose on speculation supplies from mines won't keep up with growing demand, forcing consumers to rely on limited inventories. Tin rose to the highest since at least 1989.

Labor shortages and cost increases have delayed new projects for companies including Cia. Vale do Rio and BHP Billiton Ltd., leaving stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange down 31 percent this year. Switzerland's Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth- largest nickel producer, is buying LionOre Mining International Ltd. for $4 billion to increase its production.

``What the nickel industry needs is clearly more nickel units,'' said Nick Moore, an analyst at ABN Amro Holding NV in London. ``Acquisitions don't change the nickel market. All they do is shift the chairs so capacity is owned by somebody different.''

Nickel for delivery in three months climbed $959, or 2.3 percent, to $43,159 a metric ton as of 1:19 p.m. in London. The metal traded at a record $48,500 on March 16. Inventories fell 30 tons, or 0.7 percent, to 4,902 tons, the first drop since March 20, figures from the LME's daily inventory report today showed.

Nickel supply will lag behind demand by 10,000 tons this year, on top of a deficit of 22,000 tons last year, Moore predicted.

Stainless Steel

Nickel prices have soared as China, the world's largest user of the metal, expanded its stainless-steel industry.

Jinchuan Group Co., a company that controls 90 percent of China's nickel output, said exports will fall this year because of a government tax to curb overseas shipments.

The company, based in Jinchang city, Gansu province, said today in a statement that it plans to export 3,000 metric tons of nickel this year. China raised the export tax on refined nickel to 15 percent from 10 percent in November.

Nickel inventories will probably be ``tight'' through to 2010, helping to support average prices between $30,000 a ton and $32,000 a ton over the next three years, Jim Lennon, Macquarie Bank Ltd.'s head of commodity research, said today at a conference in New Caledonia.

Tin advanced $125 to $14,450 a ton, the highest since 1989 according to Bloomberg data. That beat the previous high of $14,435 on March 23 by $105.

Copper gained $85, or 1.3 percent, to $6,805 a ton after LME-monitored inventories fell for the 12th straight day by 1.1 percent to 181,550 tons. That's the lowest since Dec. 28.

Also on the LME, aluminum fell $16 to $2,747 a ton, zinc climbed $105 to $3,260 and lead slipped $3 to $1,897 a ton.

To contact the reporters on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net ; Brett Foley in London at bfoley8@bloomberg.net .

Last Updated: March 26, 2007 08:29 EDT

stolwyk

28-03-2007, 08:13 PM

Nickel Market to Remain Tight in 2007

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=30286

stolwyk

29-03-2007, 03:38 PM

16100 tonne Nickel Resource at Carnilya Hill

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070329/pdf/311pq8ytvszccy.pdf

Heavy Metal

29-03-2007, 05:34 PM

Looks like the Almighty Stolwyk has just bought into MCR. No need for anyone else to ramp MCR anymore, it's all taken care of.

bull....

29-03-2007, 05:48 PM

dont think mcr are going any where in a hurry not till it breaks its range 2.60 - 3.12 with conviction.
Also when mir stop selling

Heavy Metal

29-03-2007, 05:53 PM

I thought the Carnilya Hill resource size was a bit disappointing and the market thinks so too. Good potential but it hasn't added much to mine life (a bit more than one year).

tricha

29-03-2007, 08:30 PM

Excellent result!

17,900 tons total nickel @ 4.6%

Final Hole 2.79 metres @ 8.61%

Initial resource will grow substantially after time, as system remains open.

Heres a clue, diamond drilling costs around $200 metre ( including assay results)

If they drill one hole at 250 metres deep, thats $50,000.

It far cheaper to prove up an initial resouce and then drill along strike to quantify the rest of the ore body than drill hundreds of 250 + metre holes.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha

29-03-2007, 08:39 PM

P.S Unfortunately View get to share in the spoils.

And after doing a few comparisons with Western Areas, Imm.

Huang Chung

29-03-2007, 10:49 PM

Tricha...looking at your last two posts, you seem to have done a complete 180 in the space of 8 min 50 sec!

Just yankin' ya chain mate..... :D:D

tricha

31-03-2007, 12:00 AM

Well this quarters over and Nickel = $56,400 a ton

My Prediction 3500 tons this quarter.

1190 tons go to BHP:( for processing.

723 tons for hedging @ $18,449 = 13.38 million
1587 tons at spot price, say $50,000 a ton average = $79.35 million

Total 92.63 million turn over for the quarter - costs form last quarter $6.56 lb x 7700000lb's = 50.5 million

Will give Mincor a 40 million profit or around 20 cents a share!

Thats my best calculation

Cheers[B)][}:)]

Dazza

31-03-2007, 01:52 AM

ur pounds is calculated wrong?

should be 5 mill lbs of ni?

tricha

31-03-2007, 02:43 AM

Guessed - Total 3500 tons for this quarter x 2200lb per ton = 7,700,000 lbs

Has anyone else done a calculation for Mincors quarterly profit[?][?][?]

I am only guessing that the cost per pound is across all lb's produced, and yes I could be quite wrong Dazza [?][?][?]

BHP get their 33% for processing all Mincors tons.

Mr Moore selling quite a few shares recently implies there has been no take over offer. Lets face it BHP, get to process all Mincors Nickel and make a fortune doing it.

From what I understand if someone was to take out Mincor the relationship with BHP would stand. So why would anyone take out Mincor, I'm sure BHP is quite happy with this cosy relationship.

There is one possibilty and that is they merge with IGO.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

wns

31-03-2007, 02:40 PM

I think eps for the qtr will be more like 12-14c ($23-27m npat).

LME price has averaged about $US 41,000 for the qtr.

Average of approx $US 41,000 / 0.77 * 0.65 = $AUD 34,610/t.
(AUD/USD exchange rate of approx 0.77, MCR selling for approx 65% of LME price)

I'll also assume production is 3,500t for the qtr since that seems about right, perhaps a touch on the high side since they did 6888t for the first half (ave of 3444/qtr for the first two qtrs).

HEDGED

241t per month for Jan-Mar, at $18,449/t.

723 t at $18,449 = $13,340,000 revenue

+

UNHEDGED

3,500 - 723 t = 2,777t.

2,777t x $AUD 34,610/t = $96,000,000 revenue

Total estimated revenue for the qtr = $13.34m + $96m = approx $109m

For the first half of the year they made $37.2m net profit after tax on 147m revenue, which equates to a net profit margin of 25%.

If they achieve a similar net profit margin for this qtr then...

$109m revenue x 25% = npat of approx $27m

195m shares on issue, giving EPS of approx 14c for the qtr.

The last couple of qtrs their profit has been a bit less than what I've estimated so I'm tipping their npat for the qtr will be approx $23m.

That will give $60m npat for the first 9 months ($37 + $23). Let's say another $23m npat * for the final qtr, giving $83m for FY07 which is EPS of 42.5c for the year. Median broker forecast is currently 44c.

* Even estimates of profit for the next qtr (let alone further into the future) can't be too accurate because we don't know with much accuracy where the nickel price will be in a couple of months time.

Current share price $3.05 -> currently trading at PE of approx 7.2.

SEC

02-04-2007, 02:07 AM

My guess is part way between Tricha and WNS. Costs will have gone up quite a bit (so Tricha's profit estimate will be high) due to significant extra royalty payments. However profit margin should still increase over WNS's 25% estimate. 3500 tonne estimate may also be a bit optimistic (say 3300 tonnes). Guesstimate NPAT is 15cps for the quarter.

SEC

SEC

04-04-2007, 12:50 AM

An extra $13M in net caaaaaash coming MCR's way over the next 4 months after the decision to commence open pit mining at North Dordie and extract some low grade ore containing 500 tonnes nickel, taking advantage of high Ni prices. The work has been contracted out, I was surprised there was any surplus resources available for this short term mining contract. Well done Mr Moore for pulling this feat off - must have paid the contractors handsomely judging by the AUD8.50/lb cash cost estimate!

SEC

tricha

04-04-2007, 02:34 AM

Sec- " Well done Mr Moore for pulling this feat off"

Yes Mr Moore is one switched on MD

Having had the privilege to meet him. Confimed what I precieved he would be, Totally dedicated, focused, switched on and he leaves no stone unturned, etc.
"Surrounded by a top team" thats his reply for congratulating him on a job well done!

He is on a "mission", and if you hold Mincor shares, you will be in a very fortunate position indeed.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

bull....

10-04-2007, 07:31 AM

back in , the price is just above the trading range and possibly looking to break out if this happens projections suggest move to 3.80 -4 pretty quick.
Another positive is that mre , smy have moved already so mcr will look cheap and have to catch up.

wns

10-04-2007, 10:45 PM

This was from 27/8/06 when the share price was $1.29. It closed today at $3.35!

Crazy as a profit of $80-100m seemed at the time, it now looks like the FY07 profit result is going to be somewhere within that ballpark I'd calculated as being possible, and the share price is already up there.

quote:Originally posted by wns

I've had a look at the nickel price chart on the LME website, as well as MCR's financials... to summarise the last two years and look at what could happen this FY.

FY05
ave Nickel price approx $US 15,000/t
10,000t nickel in concentrate sold
-> $122m revenue (ave $12,200/t)
Operating margin 38%
$20m npat

FY06
ave Nickel price approx $US 15,000/t
13,500t nickel in concentrate sold
-> $175m revenue (ave $12,960/t)
We'll know npat very soon, I'm tipping somewhere in the mid $30's(m), of which $11m is from the Tethyan options.

NOW TO THE INTERESTING BIT...

FY07

Let's say MCR sells $13,000t nickel in concentrate since they've already told us they'll probably sell similar amount to FY06.

Now the nickel price started FY07 at about $US 20,000/t and has since climbed to about $US 35,000/t.

Who knows what the nickel price will do over the next 10 months?
We're only two months into the FY, so let's be rather conservative and set $US 20,000/t as the average nickel price for the year on the LME.

Let's say AUD/USD averages $0.75 for FY07 and MCR sells at about 65% of LME quoted price. If the AUD loses ground against the USD, then MCR makes even more money.

With $13,000t sold, that would put revenues at about $225m (ave $17,333/t).

That's $50m more revenue than FY06!! Taking away 30% for tax leaves $35m npat over and above this year's result!

Let's run the figures with average price of $US 26,000/t on the LME, which is quite feasible. That would give revenues of about $293m (ave $22,533/t).

That's $118m more revenue than FY06!!!! Let's say expenses rise by $18m, then that's still $70m npat ADDITIONAL to what they earn this year.

Yes there's lots of assumptions here, but with the nickel price having risen so much, MCR should be in for a fabulous FY07. They could quite feasibly make npat of $80-100m+ in FY07.

There's about 195m shares on issue.

$80m npat -> EPS of 41c.
PE of 6 -> share price of $2.46
PE of 8 -> share price of $3.28
PE of 10 -> share price of $4.10

$100m npat -> EPS of 51c.
PE of 6 -> share price of $3.07
PE of 8 -> share price of $4.10
PE of 10 -> share price of $5.13

Share price closed at $1.29 on Friday.

Their exploration program has been going very well, and they're building a good pipeline of nickel and other base metals etc.

Should be an interesting (and profitable) year ahead! ;)

I'd be interested in other peoples' thoughts...

wns

10-04-2007, 11:45 PM

Looking at the share price over the last 12 months or so, the big moves have been the 2-3 weeks before the quarterly results announcements.

Oct 10 to 30 it went from approx $1.40 to approx $2.00 (up 42%). Then consolidation for 2 1/2 mths.

Jan 10 to 30 it went from approx $2.00 to approx $3.00 (up 50%). Then consolidation for 2 1/2 mths.

Its now April 10 and we've gone from $3.21 to $3.35 today. $3.21 + 42% = $4.55 by the end of April?? ;) That'd be nice!

SEC

10-04-2007, 11:53 PM

quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

-paid 66c for MCR only so at 2.64 I,ll have a 400% profit ;)
you make a good point a future P/E of 6 is very low when you look at extra potention of MCR outside Nickel.
Might have to hold to the 500% profit of 3.30 sp

JBMurc shame you've sold out of MCR otherwise you would now be up 500%:D

SEC

11-04-2007, 12:05 AM

quote:Originally posted by wns

Its now April 10 and we've gone from $3.21 to $3.35 today. $3.21 + 42% = $4.55 by the end of April?? ;) That'd be nice!

Sounds too good to be true, I'm tempted to take some money off the table should it get to ~$4.50. Mind you I thought $20/lb Ni was totally out of the question...

SEC

wns

11-04-2007, 12:14 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by wns

Its now April 10 and we've gone from $3.21 to $3.35 today. $3.21 + 42% = $4.55 by the end of April?? ;) That'd be nice!

Sounds too good to be true, I'm tempted to take some money off the table should it get to ~$4.50. Mind you I thought $20/lb Ni was totally out of the question...

SEC

It does sound too good to be true and I was being a little light hearted when I wrote that. However if it does repeat the last two leg ups then $4.50+ is where the share price will be.

JBmurc

11-04-2007, 11:29 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by JBmurc

-paid 66c for MCR only so at 2.64 I,ll have a 400% profit ;)
you make a good point a future P/E of 6 is very low when you look at extra potention of MCR outside Nickel.
Might have to hold to the 500% profit of 3.30 sp

JBMurc shame you've sold out of MCR otherwise you would now be up 500%:D

-Yeah happens all the time SEC had AGM at 14c sold way to early same with NAV still as long as I make 100% per yr on Cap I,m Happy;)(currently up 48%(damm Eka-Adi) with 3months till me 12months is up)
Brought PPP 15c with MCR funds ,will have alot more funds to invest soon so would like MCR to fall back to $3-3.10

tricha

13-04-2007, 12:28 AM

In your dreams JBmurc, $4.00 coming soon.

Bull - "back in , the price is just above the trading range and possibly looking to break out if this happens projections suggest move to 3.80 -4 pretty quick."

Looks like u got back in, in the nick of time Bull[:p]

RBC Capital have now raised its target to $3.60 and Outperform, does not include the Durkins deep and Mc Mahon mines, add another $1

bull....

13-04-2007, 01:41 AM

Hi Tricha nick of time for sure

As at 2 April 2007

Shareholder
Shareholding
% Issued Capital

National Nominees Limited
22,844,840
11.66

ANZ Nominees Limited
18,035,463
9.20

JP Morgan Nominees Australia Limited
17,578,495
8.97

Westpac Custodian Nominees Limited
11,766,296
6.00

Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited
7,849,250
4.01

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited
6,232,242
3.18

David C Moore
4,000,000
2.04

Cogent Nominees Pty Limited
3,669,543
1.87

Australian Reward Investment Alliance
2,241,119
1.14

Anthony H Shields
1,900,000
0.97

John W Gardner & Janet L Gardner
1,618,175
0.83

Anthony H Shields & Amanda C Nayton
1,240,000
0.63

Ravex Pty Ltd
1,210,000
0.62

HSBC Custody Nominees (Australia) Limited - AC2
1,180,841
0.60

Robert E Macmillian & Ruth D Macmillan
1,100,000
0.56

Daphne G Balaam
1,070,272
0.55

RBC Dexia Investor Services Australia Nominees Pty Limited
1,000,000
0.51

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Australia Securiites (Nominee) Pty Limited
811,970
0.41

Peter T Blackwell & Daphne C Blackwell
800,000
0.41

James S Reeve
765,000
0.39

Total
106,913,506
54.5

rbc report makes a nice read.
looking forward to the resource upgrades and rising dividends:D

steve fleming

13-04-2007, 08:28 PM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

RBC Capital have now raised its target to $3.60 and Outperform, does not include the Durkins deep and Mc Mahon mines, add another $1

also, Tricha, Paterson Securities have MCR on outperform, and yesterday increased their MCR target price to a very agressive $4.74!

Patersons have been doing lots of buying last few days.

David Hardman

13-04-2007, 10:32 PM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
Patersons have been doing lots of buying last few days.

Steve

How do you know this?

ASX is now anonymous. Do you have access to the after day traded broker reports?

steve fleming

14-04-2007, 01:27 AM

quote:Originally posted by David Hardman

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming
Patersons have been doing lots of buying last few days.

Steve

How do you know this?

ASX is now anonymous. Do you have access to the after day traded broker reports?

Hi Dave. Bloomberg provides a service that details the broker activity.

tricha

17-04-2007, 02:36 AM

Steve - "Paterson Securities have MCR on outperform, and yesterday increased their MCR target price to a very agressive $4.74!"

Yes I'd have to agree Steve, $4.74 in August, at $60,000 a ton nickel, easy.

There should be a lot of very good news coming out of Mincor soon, with all those drill bits flying.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

SEC

24-04-2007, 01:56 PM

Quarterly report out - production well down on 2Q due to lack of resources and backfilling at Miitel, but profit still OK ($37M operating profit, $25M extra caaaaash in the bank) and they 'found' an extra $20M in revenue from 1H, previously unaccounted for.

I thought the market would mark down MCR due to production issues but it's currently up 5%. What do I know....

SEC

steve fleming

24-04-2007, 10:28 PM

SEC, i take it that the extra revenue, after royalties and tax, will go straight to profit?

Would bring the h/y profit pretty close to $50 mil.

wns

24-04-2007, 10:32 PM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

Quarterly report out - production well down on 2Q due to lack of resources and backfilling at Miitel, but profit still OK ($37M operating profit, $25M extra caaaaash in the bank) and they 'found' an extra $20M in revenue from 1H, previously unaccounted for.

I thought the market would mark down MCR due to production issues but it's currently up 5%. What do I know....

SEC

So looks like npat for the March qtr will be something like $18-20m due to lower production.

We should end up with the same "revenue lift" for the March qtr as well due to the way their revenue is based on prices 3 months later and due to the nickel price being higher now than it was in Jan-Mar. Certainly for January sales since the prices in April are substantially higher.

That's a two edged sword though whenever the nickel price drops.

So I guess approx 70% of the $20m extra revenue for the first half can be added to net profit, meaning npat for the first HY is about $50m??

The full year result could still end up in the $90-100m vicinity.

Nice share price rise in the last couple of days and still doesn't look overpriced.

This is now a 5+ bagger for me in just over a year.

bull....

27-04-2007, 03:00 AM

RBC have raised there share target to $4.40 out perform from 3.60 only 2 mths ago.

With Pattersons at 4.74 things are looking good.

Im raising my target to $5.50 by xmas based on huge 2nd half year and resource upgrades and increased div.

sparrow

30-04-2007, 06:37 PM

Yooooooooooooooohooooooooooooo $$$$$$$$$$$$$$4.00

wns

30-04-2007, 06:39 PM

Time to change the title of the thread Tricha coz MCR hit $4.00 today. :)

tricha

30-04-2007, 11:17 PM

WNS - "Time to change the title of the thread Tricha coz MCR hit $4.00 today."

Do u have any suggestions WNS [?][?]

I'd have to agree with Sec on the quarter,not the best. Tonnage down,costs per ilb high, no gold found and no Tungsten found.

However they have implied that they will be back on track for nickel tonnage this quarter and if Nickel stays up [?], wallop, big bucks.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

tricha

03-05-2007, 01:18 AM

But the exceptional part is.

Nickel May 02,08:55
Bid/Ask 22.8217 - 22.9578
Change +0.0454 +0.20%
Low/High 22.7310 - 23.4001

Which represents over $60,000 a ton OZ

1st month this quarter gone at $60,000

So the extra 20 million recieved from the 2nd half could be repeated for the 3rd quarter.

Production for the year will be met.

In line for an absolute boomer last quarter.

So, put Mincor in the bottom drawer for another 3-4 monthes, because........

Cheers [B)][}:)]

pago

14-05-2007, 01:47 PM

mincor to acquire otter-juan nickel mine ,ie acquire gmm pty ltd for $68.5 mill.cheers pago,

wns

14-05-2007, 08:42 PM

quote:Originally posted by pago

mincor to acquire otter-juan nickel mine ,ie acquire gmm pty ltd for $68.5 mill.cheers pago,

Yeah, looks like a good deal for MCR with high returns and good from a strategic point of view. Market liked it, nice rise again today.

steve fleming

14-05-2007, 10:34 PM

quote:Originally posted by wns

quote:Originally posted by pago

mincor to acquire otter-juan nickel mine ,ie acquire gmm pty ltd for $68.5 mill.cheers pago,

Yeah, looks like a good deal for MCR with high returns and good from a strategic point of view. Market liked it, nice rise again today.

Superb deal making by board/management.

Interesting to see today Huntley's up their valuation and 07 NPAT estimate today to $119.5m, yet still have MCR on reduce.

"Despite raising our valuation, share price appreciation means we retain our Reduce recommendation. The prospective mid single digit FY08 PE, production growth in train and potential for exploration success demand retention of some exposure, perhaps half the original investment. Our near term nickel price forecasts average 65% below futures. We take that conservative stance because what goes up can surely come down. Nickel has risen 360% in two short years. While there are strong underlying fundamental reasons, namely China, we have some concerns about distortions from hedge fund activity. We also weigh the potential for demand destruction and new higher cost supply to come on stream at these lofty price levels. In the shorter term we recognise the potential to be made to look foolish, particularly if the squeeze continues. We don’t pretend to be able to call movements over such time frames. Our approach is to value companies based on the longer term fundamentals."

Interesting perspective - also given Huntley's generally conservative forward pricing of commoditities, makes their ongoing passionate support of CMR an interesting call.

steve fleming

15-05-2007, 10:15 PM

I saw today RBC now have MCR on a staggering $5.75 target (or thereabouts from memory)

RBC have a fantastic record with MCR.

Also good read: http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--sohwo.pdf

wns

15-05-2007, 10:38 PM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

I saw today RBC now have MCR on a staggering $5.75 target (or thereabouts from memory)

RBC have a fantastic record with MCR.

Also good read: http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--sohwo.pdf

Thanks for the link etc Steve.

Are you a client of Huntley's? Is that how you got hold of their profit update (your post on the 14th)?

steve fleming

15-05-2007, 11:11 PM

quote:Originally posted by wns

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

I saw today RBC now have MCR on a staggering $5.75 target (or thereabouts from memory)

RBC have a fantastic record with MCR.

Also good read: http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--sohwo.pdf

Thanks for the link etc Steve.

Are you a client of Huntley's? Is that how you got hold of their profit update (your post on the 14th)?

Hi WNS...one of my broking accounts is with Westpac -as part of the package Westpac provides access to Huntleys up to date research reports on a couple of hundred companies.

I find Huntley's conservative views an excellent balance to some of the other more bullish broking reports.

SEC

15-05-2007, 11:12 PM

If we assume the existing Otter-Juan mine has another 4 years to run at existing poduction rates, MCR is paying an in-ground cost of only $1.25/lb nickel. Combine this with the $0.50/lb they paid for the McMahon/Durkin deposits, Moore has done an outstanding deal that is hugely eps positive and should pay for itself in less than two years.

As mentioned earlier I was considering selling a few at $4.50+ but this acquisition has added $1 to MCR's valuation (and my target price) and the market will slowly wake up to this.

MCR is now a very strong candidate for inclusion in the ASX200 when the next changes are announced at the start of June.

SEC

wns

15-05-2007, 11:26 PM

Thanks Steve.

I've just had a read of the Paterson's report you posted the link to on MCR's website.

Is it bullish in comparison to Huntley's and RBC latest reports? (in terms of their assumptions and estimates for npat, eps, dps etc in coming years.)

SEC

15-05-2007, 11:33 PM

quote:Originally posted by wns

Is it bullish in comparison to Huntley's and RBC latest reports? (in terms of their assumptions and estimates for npat, eps, dps etc in coming years.)

Paterson's revised PE estimates for FY08 and FY09 of 3.2 and 2.9 are out of this world! Surely the other brokers haven't revised eps that much. I look forward to other broker updates on MCR to see if Patersons are being overly bullish or if MCR is really that cheap.

SEC

steve fleming

15-05-2007, 11:48 PM

quote:Originally posted by wns

Thanks Steve.

I've just had a read of the Paterson's report you posted the link to on MCR's website.

Is it bullish in comparison to Huntley's and RBC latest reports? (in terms of their assumptions and estimates for npat, eps, dps etc in coming years.)

Yep...huge diff's between Huntley's and Patersons (although Huntley's estimates are prior to Otter-juan therefore not directly comparable.

Huntley's FY08 NPAT - $143m (Ni @ US$15.00/lb)
Pat's FYO8 NPAT - $260m (Ni @ US$16-18/lb)

08 Div yld per Huntley's of 4.8% - PE = 5.9
08 Div yld per Pat's of 8.1% PE = 3.2

I'll check RBC & the Bloomberg consensus tomorrow but they would lie between Huntley's and Pats.

However all agree that MCR remains one of the best value Nickel stocks.

wns

15-05-2007, 11:51 PM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by wns

Is it bullish in comparison to Huntley's and RBC latest reports? (in terms of their assumptions and estimates for npat, eps, dps etc in coming years.)

Paterson's revised PE estimates for FY08 and FY09 of 3.2 and 2.9 are out of this world! Surely the other brokers haven't revised eps that much. I look forward to other broker updates on MCR to see if Patersons are being overly bullish or if MCR is really that cheap.

SEC

Yeah their numbers are out there!

Its hard enough to estimate profits for the current quarter without a sizeable "give or take" factor, let alone give much credence to estimates a year or so out, coz their profits depend so much on the price of nickel.

It was fun there for a moment to calculate my future share holding value and dividends based on their estimates. [:p] Be awesome if it pans out that way. [:p]

Given the strong nickel price over the last couple of months, I'm upping my back of the envelope npat estimate for the year from $90m's to $110m ish...

$50m for the first HY, another $18m for Q3 with a $14m ish revision upwards later on due to higher price 3 months after delivery - a la extra $20m revenue for first half. Then another $30m for Q4.

COLIN

16-05-2007, 12:12 AM

quote:Originally posted by wns

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

I saw today RBC now have MCR on a staggering $5.75 target (or thereabouts from memory)

RBC have a fantastic record with MCR.

Also good read: http://www.mincor.com.au/images/mincor-47--sohwo.pdf

Thanks for the link etc Steve.

Are you a client of Huntley's? Is that how you got hold of their profit update (your post on the 14th)?

Direct Broking also provide a link to the Huntley material, for their active on-line clients.

bull....

16-05-2007, 08:00 AM

Xstrata trumps bid for LionOre
Andrew Trounson
May 16, 2007

FRESH takeover speculation is set to sweep Australia's nickel mining sector after Swiss giant Xstrata raised its bid for Canadian miner LionOre to $6.7 billion.
The all-cash bid trumps Russian giant Norilsk's competing bid by $947 million, and is 35 per cent above Xstrata's opening offer launched in March.

Xstrata chief executive Mick Davis is well-known for being an aggressive bidder as he backs the commodities boom. His move could give further encouragement to other global miners to become more aggressive.

Takeover speculation is sweeping the global resources sector as miners seek to buy scarce mining assets to capitalise on the metal price boom.

Aluminium giant Alcoa this month launched a $US28 billion ($34 billion) bid for Canadian rival Alcan that could yet attract a counter-offer from the likes of BHP Billiton or Rio Tinto.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto itself is being tipped as a target, as is Anglo American.

Investment bankers are known to be scouting for targets in the Australian nickel sector. There is speculation that nickel miners such as Jubilee, Sally Malay and Western Areas could be under the microscope.

Minara Resources, operator of the Murrin Murrin mine, might be less of a target given that it is 50 per cent owned by Swiss commodities giant Glencore, although it could become a target for Xstrata given that Glencore controls about 40 per cent of Xstrata.

LionOre has significant nickel assets in Western Australia, including the Black Swan and Lake Johnston operations, as well as the Honeymoon Well nickel project, a feasibility study on which is due by mid-year.

It also owns mines in South Africa and Botswana and has forecast nickel production this year at 44,000 tonnes.

LionOre has a listing in Australia that it was due to cancel next month. Share trading was halted yesterday ahead of the announcement and the stock last traded at $25.98.

Xstrata is the world's fourth largest nickel producer and last year beat off competition from US copper giant Phelps Dodge to buy Canadian nickel major Falconbridge for $22 billion.

LionOre's board has backed Xstrata's higher offer. Xstrata has raised its offer to $C25.00 a share, up from $C18.50 and ahead of Norilsk's $C21.50.

LionOre shares have risen this year by almost 79 per cent as nickel prices have more than doubled in the past year to $US18.80 a pound.

Earlier, LionOre reported a massive rise in first-quarter profit to $US148.3 million from just $US13.2 million a year ago. Sales rose to $US525.4 million from $US126.7 million.

steve fleming

16-05-2007, 10:05 PM

Got the June AFR Smart Investor in the mail today - the VIP (VERY IMPRESSIVE PERFORMERS) STOCKS Edition - 25 companies that grow earnings year after year after year......

and the No 2 VIP stock for 2007, according to AFR, is MCR - Mincor!!

(out of 500 stocks that AFR reviewed)

(no 1 was KZL)

based on EPS growth, ROE, 07 & 08 PE forecasts.

The article makes very worthwhile reading...

wns

17-05-2007, 12:27 AM

Thanks Steve for the heads up on the Smart Investor article, I'll have to have a squiz at it.

Another good day, new highs.

David Hardman

17-05-2007, 06:46 PM

MCR must be getting very close to S&P200 contention.

MCR's current market cap $842m

Some stocks with slightly higher market caps in the ASX200

TSO - 912m
JBH - 913m
JST - 865m

Some stocks with lower market caps currently in the ASX200

BSG - 813m
VEA - 809m
TAL - 805m

SEC

17-05-2007, 09:25 PM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

and the No 2 VIP stock for 2007, according to AFR, is MCR - Mincor!!

(out of 500 stocks that AFR reviewed)

(no 1 was KZL)

Pleasing to note I hold both No 1 and 2 out of 500!

David, S&P will announce the next round of changes to the S&P200 index on or around 4 June. MCR has to be at good odds of being included.

SEC

steve fleming

17-05-2007, 11:00 PM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

and the No 2 VIP stock for 2007, according to AFR, is MCR - Mincor!!

(out of 500 stocks that AFR reviewed)

(no 1 was KZL)

Pleasing to note I hold both No 1 and 2 out of 500!

And No 5 - WOR

No 3 was MND
No4 was PMM

steve fleming

17-05-2007, 11:12 PM

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Hi Steve,

Thanks for that, How would one go about getting a copy?
Is it available online?

regards

AA

Hi AA, no don't think its online, but should be available at any decent bookstore in NZ - NZ$9.95. Cheers

SEC

18-05-2007, 12:21 AM

quote:Originally posted by absolut-advance

Hi Sec,

What other companies are you holding in your portfolio?,
Do you trade in and out on trend? TA? Buy with FA+TA?
Do you Take a Long term outlook when investing, or do you allow TA or trailing stops etc to override company fundamentals?

AA

Current medium/long term holds already disclosed on Sharetrader include AFG, BNB, IGO, KZL, MCR, RHC, TSE, WOR, ZFX. Plus a few others shorter term or not disclosed.

Flexibility and liquidity is key to my strategy, so I have no real bias toward short term or long term. Liquidity is paramount, $100K must be able to be quickly traded without moving the market. Limits my choice to ASX300 stocks. These stocks have the advantage of being able to margin lend against them and have published broker estimates on forecast eps etc. I closely watch changes in consensus eps estimates of a company with respect to its recent movements in share price. If eps estimates are rising when the price is falling, then it's time to look closer. TA usually (but not always) dictates my buy price point, then I either let profits run or quickly cut losses. Prefer to hold only 8 - 12 stocks, if I end up holding too many stocks (15+) after a market correction then it's also time to have a bit of a tidy up.

I also pyramid, adding to a holding on short term weakness if the medium/long term trend is still upwards.

I don't usually use fundamentals to value a stock, I let the market do that. Never love a stock, and be willing to change your mind on a stock.

SEC

steve fleming

20-05-2007, 07:35 PM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

These stocks have the advantage of being able to margin lend against them and have published broker estimates on forecast eps etc. I closely watch changes in consensus eps estimates of a company with respect to its recent movements in share price

Hi SEC, which consensus estimates do you follow?

I find the Bloomberg estimates fantastic in terms of detail, but they don't often include all analysts that follow a stock - ie the consensus for MCR is only made up of RBC and Macquarie estimates, whereas there are a number of other brokers that follow MCR whose estimates are not collated by Bloomberg.

The Thomson Financial estimates which are available on Commsec (via Huntleys) seem to include a larger range of estimates but lack any meaningful detail.

SEC

24-05-2007, 12:57 AM

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Hi SEC, which consensus estimates do you follow?

I find the Bloomberg estimates fantastic in terms of detail, but they don't often include all analysts that follow a stock - ie the consensus for MCR is only made up of RBC and Macquarie estimates, whereas there are a number of other brokers that follow MCR whose estimates are not collated by Bloomberg.

The Thomson Financial estimates which are available on Commsec (via Huntleys) seem to include a larger range of estimates but lack any meaningful detail.

I follow the Thomson Financial estimates too, sourced from Commsec and Ninemsn. The Ninemsn site has all the estimates on one page so I can copy it all onto a s/s and manipulate the data so I can quickly extract the relevant info for about 150 stocks I follow. It updates daily but I download the data usually once a week. The larger the number of analysts following the stock, the better.

I presume the Bloomberg data you're referring to is via suscription only? If not, do you have a link?

SEC

Dazza

24-05-2007, 06:51 PM

sec - refering to ninemsn, when u say can copy into s/s what data are u talking about? just the day to day share prices i presume?

i was able to have a look at the broker forecast eps for say IGO , but if i say i wanted to have a look at say 3 stocks forecast eps i couldnt.

if i look at multiple stocks i can just view it on watchlist, however that is just share price

tricha

29-05-2007, 12:32 AM

In for the home run!

End of the 2nd month of this quarter and Nickel still 60K a ton oz.

Mincor implied vastly improved tonnage this quarter so we should be on track for a phenomenal result, way above the last quarter and the potential for a top up on the last quarterly earnings as well.

A years patience and Mincor, depending on Nickel prices could be around $8.00 a share. Producing 20,000 tons of Nickel!

Remember JBM did not go from 10 cents to 18 dollars in a straight line either;)And the clever brokers were recommending a sell at $3.00, $4.00, $5.00, $8.00, $10.00.After that I think they saw the light :D

Cheers [B)][}:)]

bull....

29-05-2007, 07:58 AM

Technical update - reached the 3.80 - 4 dollar zone as we mentioned earlier this was the target from consolidation.
Price consolidated in this area for a while before a explosive breakout to upside which while looking good unfortunately may not be so.

The price encountered heavy selling above 4.40 resistance now being 4.45.
The price has broken its short term uptrend and yesterday kissed the line and fell to the close not good.
This week is crucial for immediate future as a fall back into the 3.80 - 4 range will lead to more selling and then I see the gap at 3.60 being filled.

Viking

29-05-2007, 11:49 AM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

In for the home run!

Remember JBM did not go from 10 cents to 18 dollars in a straight line either;)And the clever brokers were recommending a sell at $3.00, $4.00, $5.00, $8.00, $10.00.After that I think they saw the light :D

Cheers [B)][}:)]

Allow me to be "tongue-in-cheeck" a little~

I guess, the "cleverer" the broker the more they recommend to sell (especially stock like those), so you buy and again, and then sell, then buy again... and again[:o)]the more buy/sell from you the better for them.[:p]

tricha

29-05-2007, 04:41 PM

Mincor Resources NL Announces Extension To Carnilya Hill Nickel Mineralisation29 May 2007, 01:29 AM ET
Mincor Resources NL announced that it has identified the potential for a major extension to its 70% owned Carnilya Hill nickel deposit in Western Australia after intersecting massive sulphides grading over 17% nickel down-plunge of the existing deposit. The Company announced that it had completed a 792.4-metre deep diamond drill hole on a major step-out position at Carnilya Hill, with the new hole intersecting a narrow zone of very high tenor massive sulphide mineralisation some 230 metres beyond the limits of the current mineral resource. The result indicates a major extension to the mineralised channel structure at Carnilya Hill, with the new intersection located 280 metres down-plunge of the last substantial intersection (2.79 metres at 8.61% nickel in CMD028W1) in the mineralised channel. Recently completed down-hole electromagnetic indicate the presence of a strong in-hole/offhole EM anomaly centred below the new intersection and extending both up-plunge and down-plunge to the east and west. The new hole (CMD026) intersected 3.11 metres at 3.66% nickel, from 698.74 metres down hole. This includes 0.36 metres at 17.55% nickel from 698.74 metres down-hole, followed by 1.47 metres of unmineralised ultramafic rock and then 1.28 metres at 1.64% nickel from 700.57 metres. All intersections are close to true width.

wns

29-05-2007, 09:15 PM

I thought that announcement would bring about some colourful posting from you Tricha. :D

Some more excellent news that's for sure!

tricha

30-05-2007, 02:57 AM

Yes WNS its all exciting going forward for Mincor, four more mines to add to their existing four, cheap to develope and they should all be on stream in the next 12 monthes. The big issue I see is where are they going to get the staff [?]

And will they all be like Carnilya Hill and Mariners, the deeper they go the better it gets [?][?]

I'd say so [:p]

And RAV8 will that make mine #9 [?][?]

Cheers [B)][}:)]

P.S and we all know how conservative MR Moore and Mincor are, so 20,000 tons should be on the light side.

Harry7

30-05-2007, 01:53 PM

Nice one Tricha, have some of these babies, been accumalating during 2007 [8D]

wns

30-05-2007, 11:32 PM

quote:Originally posted by tricha

Yes WNS its all exciting going forward for Mincor, four more mines to add to their existing four, cheap to develope and they should all be on stream in the next 12 monthes. The big issue I see is where are they going to get the staff [?]

They got some more staff and equipment as part of the GMM purchase. Not sure how many though or whether it will be enough...

"In addition, we are very pleased to welcome GMM’s highly skilled and experienced workforce to Mincor”.

SEC

01-06-2007, 09:04 PM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

MCR is now a very strong candidate for inclusion in the ASX200 when the next changes are announced at the start of June.

Ho ho ho. Congrats MCR (and SMY) for joining IGO in the ranks of the big boys.

SEC

Viking

05-06-2007, 12:21 PM

quote:Originally posted by bull....

RBC have raised there share target to $4.40 out perform from 3.60 only 2 mths ago.

With Pattersons at 4.74 things are looking good.

Im raising my target to $5.50 by xmas based on huge 2nd half year and resource upgrades and increased div.

They are on the money, the RBC... we are now trading above the $4.40 range~ Bull's target of $5.50 looks feasible in near future~

bull....

05-06-2007, 12:49 PM

Viking things looking good

I was saying last week was critical as mcr flirted with the range top.
Anyway it held support and has now taken off also breaking resistance today at 4.45.

I think we should start a $5 party ,oh so many partys lately:D

Dazza

05-06-2007, 03:29 PM

great start today

announcement out

makes my top up at 3.90 look way too good :D

Viking

05-06-2007, 09:43 PM

My goodness gracious~ $4.76

wow~ really joining the $5 party! well, my holding not big enough to allow me to through big parties, but I will have a glass of Heineken~ [^] just like th greeny looking upward pointing triangles~~~ :D:D

Viking

05-06-2007, 09:51 PM

This annoucement from MCR today, feels like we struck gold~ well, maybe little less than that~ we struck Nickle!!! [:p][:p][:p][:p]

Kambalda nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) has added further weight to the emerging NO9 discovery down-plunge of its operating Mariners Nickel Mine in Western Australia, with recent drilling returning high-grade nickel intersections that reinforce the early potential of the new ore zone.
The latest results further enhance Mincor’s exploration and development pipeline, which includes multiple new mine development projects, acquisitions and advanced exploration opportunities in the Kambalda region.
Underground drilling re-commenced at Mariners last month, with recent drill holes intersecting significant mineralisation, including:
• 7.3 metres @ 5.90% nickel in MRDH0219;
• 3.3 metres @ 4.83% nickel in MRDH0220; and
• 1.6 metres @ 5.53% nickel in MRDH0218

tricha

06-06-2007, 04:26 AM

Start producing from Mariners deeps and watch the cash cost per pound plunge and the unhedged tonnage go up [:p], JBM and WSA proportions coming.

High-grade nickel intersections expand new Mariners NO9 discovery

Mincor mining operations

Kambalda nickel producer, Mincor Resources has added further weight to the emerging NO9 discovery down-plunge of its operating Mariners Nickel Mine in Western Australia, with recent drilling returning high-grade nickel intersections that reinforce the early potential of the new ore zone.

The latest results further enhance Mincor’s exploration and development pipeline, which includes multiple new mine development projects, acquisitions and advanced exploration opportunities in the Kambalda region.

Underground drilling re-commenced at Mariners last month, with recent drill holes intersecting significant mineralisation, including 7.3m @ 5.90% nickel in MRDH0219, 3.3m @ 4.83% nickel in MRDH0220, and 1.6m @ 5.53% nickel in MRDH0218.

The intersection in MRDH0218, one of a series in that hole, is especially significant as it is located 250m down-plunge of the N08 ore body, which is currently being mined, and indicates a likely plunge length of at least 300m to the new NO9 mineralised zone.

Drill hole MRDH0219 intersected well-developed Kambalda-style open-contact nickel sulphide mineralisation on the basal contact just 25m below current mine development. The intersection of 7.3m @ 5.90% nickel includes a 0.90m zone of high-tenor massive sulphides grading 13.1% nickel.

Drill hole MRDH0220 intersected the contact approximately 30m above MRD0220 and returned a variable zone of mineralisation with an estimated true width of 12.3m grading 2.11% nickel, including 3.3m @ 4.83% nickel.

Mincor’s Managing Director, David Moore said the latest results from the NO9 substantiated the company’s early confidence in the discovery.

“We now have two underground rigs operating at the NO9 zone,” Mr Moore said. “Due to necessary underground development work, we have only been able to carry out limited drilling since the initial discovery was announced in November last year.”
“Now that this development is complete, we are again able to focus attention on the drill-out of this important discovery, which, because of its proximity to existing workings, is easily accessible and has the potential to add tremendous value,” he said.

- 06 Jun 2007

lewinsky

06-06-2007, 03:25 PM

This one hell of a great ride. Nudging the magic $5.00 mark
The FOUR M's are treating me really well
MCR,MMX,MTN and Moore (David).

Viking

06-06-2007, 06:15 PM

It has certainly been a good couple of days with MCR.
[^][^][^] Can't be happier!

Actually, THANK YOU, tricha for providing all those information along the way :) Helping us the ignorants making up our minds hehehehe~

wns

07-06-2007, 12:09 AM

I just noticed that median broker earnings estimates for FY07 have gone from 52c to 58c in the last 7 days, and FY08 have gone from 57c to 85c!

Anyone got details on particular broker updates?

steve fleming

10-06-2007, 04:20 PM

quote:Originally posted by wns

I just noticed that median broker earnings estimates for FY07 have gone from 52c to 58c in the last 7 days, and FY08 have gone from 57c to 85c!

Anyone got details on particular broker updates?

RBC have raised their target price now to $6.00 (though have actually downgraded 08 forecasts)

Patersons are by far and away the most bullish on MCR with estimated FY08 EPS of 1.29 - a PE of 3.6.

Good to see MCR as one of the best performing resource stocks last week.

Huang Chung

12-06-2007, 12:00 AM

For those that get the chance,have a look at Sky Business News tonight. Special WA program, interviewing the CEOs of Mincor, Austal, and Sphere Investments. I think the program is being repeated every half hour.

Ricardo

12-06-2007, 11:24 AM

Sky Business also available as a Podcast (audio only). Just listened to it, and no reason to take from the bottom drawer for awhile yet, (assuming the company is giving a balanced opinion on their outlook of course).

Viking

12-06-2007, 02:08 PM

15 ~ 20 Years~ [^] sounded like my kind of long term growth~ :)
Interesting example drawn re Post-World War II comodity boom led by Japan/German.

xman

13-06-2007, 12:27 AM

Fellows, could you please provide URL for these news?

Thanks and regards,

Xman

Ricardo

13-06-2007, 01:19 PM

Xman, if you meant the Sky Business news, I get mine as a podcast daily, using itunes (free download)
Otherwise Boardroom radio http://www.brr.com.au/
or Mincor's web site [url]http://www.mincor.com.au/

Anything Google won't find is not generally available on the web, eg some of the analysts reports intended for paying clients only.

If you keep trying these will sometimes get posted anyway.

David Hardman

13-06-2007, 02:03 PM

MCR is holding up remarkably well given the recent decline in Ni price.

Insto's probably supporting the stock ahead of it being added to the ASX200 at the end of the week.

The good news about Carnilya Hill will be helping as well.

sparrow

30-06-2007, 10:02 AM

A request - can anyone post a copy of the Huntley's research report on MCR? It's been taken off the Direct Broking website. Thanks

steve fleming

30-06-2007, 11:52 AM

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

A request - can anyone post a copy of the Huntley's research report on MCR? It's been taken off the Direct Broking website. Thanks

which one? Latest i have is 14/05/07

sparrow

30-06-2007, 07:38 PM

Thanks Flem, I found it after digging a little deeper.

steve fleming

09-07-2007, 11:09 PM

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

A request - can anyone post a copy of the Huntley's research report on MCR? It's been taken off the Direct Broking website. Thanks

New Huntleys' report out today on MCR

Massive upgrade to target price.

"We upgrade our recommendation from Reduce to Hold due to our increased valuation. Suitable for risk tolerant investors seeking exposure to nickel exploration, development and acquisition upside."

Bobbyvee

10-07-2007, 12:54 AM

"Massive upgrade"???? really! Is that the conclusion from a "Reduce" to "Hold"

My reading of the market is that there is a considerable ?? on the short term nickel price.

wns

10-07-2007, 01:07 AM

I sold my MCR late June. A 6+ bagger for me in about 15 months and my best investment ever. Awesome run!

Used part of the profits to pay off the remainder of our personal home loan.

Heavy Metal

10-07-2007, 01:46 AM

quote:Originally posted by Bobbyvee

My reading of the market is that there is a considerable ?? on the short term nickel price.

... short term nickel price is of little consequence to analysts estimates of longer term nickel prices, which have changed little in recent times despite short term volatility and therefore valuation of nickel producers haven't changed much, except for Mincor valuation due to their recent acquisition.

sparrow

10-07-2007, 08:05 AM

quote:New Huntleys' report out today on MCR

Steve - where can I find this - not on Direct Broking yet

steve fleming

10-07-2007, 09:35 AM

quote:Originally posted by Bobbyvee

"Massive upgrade"???? really! Is that the conclusion from a "Reduce" to "Hold"

My reading of the market is that there is a considerable ?? on the short term nickel price.

Well a 30% upgrade is pretty big, i would say....and as HM said, valuations are based on the long term price, which are less than 50% of the spot price.

Don't know if you follow what brokers say, but Huntley's have been extremely conservative in their valuations of commodity plays. For them to come out with an upgrade at this point of time is a big cal.

Sparrow - my update came through Westpac y'day - probably available on DB today.

sparrow

10-07-2007, 12:05 PM

Thanks Steve - yes it's there

Dazza

10-07-2007, 04:52 PM

Wahts huntleys new price target for MCR?

zac

11-07-2007, 07:25 PM

Sydney - Wednesday - July 11: (RWE Australian Business News) -
Kambalda nickel producer Mincor Resources NL (ASX: MCR) today announced its nickel production forecast for the 2007/08 financial year. The Company said that, following recent acquisitions and growth initiatives, it was targeting a substantial increase in production, to between 16,000 and 17,000 tonnes of nickel-in-concentrate, for the 12-month period. The mid-point of this target range represents a 28% increase in production over the 2006/07 financial year, which Mincor said today had come in at 12,911 tonnes of nickel-in-concentrate – the mid-range of its previously announced forecast (FY 2006: 13,498 tonnes). Total production for 2006/07 was 616,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 2.45% nickel for 15,124 tonnes of nickel metal contained in ore, or 12,911 tonnes of nickel-in-concentrate. The targeted production range for 2007/08 equates to nearly 19,000 tonnes of nickel metal contained in ore – which is just marginally below Mincor's long-term goal of 20,000 tonnes per annum of nickel metal contained in ore, on a sustainable basis.

sparrow

12-07-2007, 11:29 AM

quote:Whats huntleys new price target for MCR?

Their new "valuation" ( does this equate to "price target?) is $4.05, up from $2.75 in May.

They have not changed their forcast NPAT of $143 million for 2008 calendar year. I note this is based on an average nickel price of US$25,350.

Credit Suisse , for one, have just issued a forecast average price for 2008 of US$33,000 tonne.

If this came to fruition, it would add in the region of $100 million to Huntley's forecast revenue (& profit) for MCR in 2008.

Have some punters deserted the good ship MINCOR prematurely?

duncan macgregor

12-07-2007, 12:51 PM

quote:Originally posted by sparrow

quote:Whats huntleys new price target for MCR?

Their new "valuation" ( does this equate to "price target?) is $4.05, up from $2.75 in May.

They have not changed their forcast NPAT of $143 million for 2008 calendar year. I note this is based on an average nickel price of US$25,350.

Credit Suisse , for one, have just issued a forecast average price for 2008 of US$33,000 tonne.

If this came to fruition, it would add in the region of $100 million to Huntley's forecast revenue (& profit) for MCR in 2008.

Have some punters deserted the good ship MINCOR prematurely?
I only removed half to leave the other half costing me less than nothing. Not bad for seven months to come out of it with more than you put into it leaving half the number costing you nothing. Macdunk

whiteheron

12-07-2007, 01:27 PM

Macdunk

This is a strategy that I too have used to good profit on several stocks
Sort of leaves you with a sence of comfort and satisfaction doesnt it

I have also used listed options on occasion with the aim of selling part after a price rise to carry the balance at little or no cost, but these are very volatile beasts and have to be watched carefully
I only buy where the conversion date is some time away and where I am convinced that the medium term prospects of the company look very favourable
Can be a good way to get into developing junior miners at a favourable cost

duncan macgregor

12-07-2007, 03:27 PM

WHITE HERON, I did exactly that White Heron I bought into MRX at 13.5 and 14c its now 15c expect it to be 20c before the year is out. Its good to be able to take a higher risk with profits and still leave your origional share running with a similar value. Macdunk

Viking

12-07-2007, 09:48 PM

Well, I did sold out 60% of my holding at $4.88 which leaves the remaining cost nothing~~~ BUT BUT BUT~~~~ when the price drop I went back in ~~~ [}:)] so far not very profitable though~ avg $4.50 so~~~ sort of bleeding~~~

SEC

12-07-2007, 10:36 PM

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

Macdunk
Sort of leaves you with a sence of comfort and satisfaction doesnt it

There are many reasons to partly sell your holding in a stock. But I can't really follow the logic of selling a portion just so the balance is 'free'. Smacks of emotions.... and you should never get emotional when it comes to trading.

If I did this on Mincor I would only need to sell 15% of my holding. I ask myself what's the point of doing that?

SEC

Dazza

12-07-2007, 11:11 PM

no point

i had this plan but its stupid
doesnt work for me, and nor did it for my pops

old man invested in china life insurance
list price $2 or osmething

he got in at $4

sold half at $9 or osemthing to get cash back cause mum was getting edgy.

then saw it rise to 18..... then pops sold all at 20

and now its banging on 30

he regrets selling at 9!! and then at 18

duncan macgregor

13-07-2007, 08:28 AM

quote:Originally posted by SEC

quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

Macdunk
Sort of leaves you with a sence of comfort and satisfaction doesnt it

There are many reasons to partly sell your holding in a stock. But I can't really follow the logic of selling a portion just so the balance is 'free'. Smacks of emotions.... and you should never get emotional when it comes to trading.

If I did this on Mincor I would only need to sell 15% of my holding. I ask myself what's the point of doing that?

SEC
SEC, Emotion has nothing to do with it. I sold half my holding because the sp was retreating. The fundamentals of the company suggest the retreat will be short lived. The share price more than doubled for me, giving me the opportunity to take my origional stake out in search of greener pastures with the origional value still invested after a period of seven months. I think MRX has gained about 7% and MCR lost a bit in the last few days but early days yet. I always sell shares in retreat to add to or find new trending companies love has nothing to do with it. Macdunk

sparrow

13-07-2007, 08:32 AM

quote:i had this plan but its stupid
doesnt work for me, and nor did it for my pops

old man invested in china life insurance
list price $2 or osmething

he got in at $4

sold half at $9 or osemthing to get cash back cause mum was getting edgy.

then saw it rise to 18..... then pops sold all at 20

and now its banging on 30

he regrets selling at 9!! and then at 18

Hindsight is easy, it is looking ahead that is hard.

Must admit, like macdunk and WH, i realised some gains but still have 70% of my MCR holding. Would have had more but my car fell to bits and had to get some cash for a replacement.

Nice to see nickel trying to consolidate around $32,000-$33,000/tonne

Predictions on final div - 10c?

JBmurc

10-08-2007, 01:46 PM

Yeah happens all the time SEC had AGM at 14c sold way to early same with NAV still as long as I make 100% per yr on Cap I,m Happy(currently up 48%(damm Eka-Adi) with 3months till me 12months is up)
Brought PPP 15c with MCR funds ,will have alot more funds to invest soon so would like MCR to fall back to $3-3.10
__________________

In your dreams JBmurc, $4.00 coming soon.

Bull - "back in , the price is just above the trading range and possibly looking to break out if this happens projections suggest move to 3.80 -4 pretty quick."

Looks like u got back in, in the nick of time Bull[:p]

RBC Capital have now raised its target to $3.60 and Outperform, does not include the Durkins deep and Mc Mahon mines, add another $1

-Looks like I might get me some MCR shares soon bargin buy sub $3 will be watching closely maybe even a CFD long Ni will rebound IMHO selling overdone

bull....

10-08-2007, 04:04 PM

havnt posted for a while as been busy.

Anyway MCR was a classic sell at 4.95 double top for anyone that follows T/A .

Currently ive just brought yesterday and taken a bath lol today but I have it sitting at around support so see what happens.

Guess it depends on uncle sam and nickel price if both stabilize soon this could be a bargain in hindsight.

zac

21-08-2007, 03:18 PM

Sydney - Tuesday - August 21: (RWE Aust Business News) - Mincor
Resources NL (ASX:MCR) reported a net profit of $101.33 million for the
year to June 30 2007, compared with $29.3m in FY06. Revenue was up 91 per cent to $334.51m. A final dividend of 6c, fully franked, will be paid September 28 with record date September 3. Earnings per share was 51.3c against 15.1c. The bottom line includes a hefty $26m royalty cost generated by the high nickel prices. Royalty costs for the year are estimated to have added 83c per pound to Mincor's cash costs compared to the previous year. The strong financial performance was achieved on solid production from Mincor's four Kambalda nickel operations of 12,927 tonnes of nickel-in-concentrate. This was sold into an exceptionally strong nickel price environment, with an average selling price (net of hedging) of $17.28 per pound payable nickel achieved for the year.

stevo1

21-08-2007, 04:18 PM

this is one exceptional debt free mining co.mining nickel ----gold copper zinc lead silver uranium tungsten possabilities --looks great now and in the future

OneUp

21-08-2007, 04:43 PM

Heavy Metal

21-08-2007, 05:10 PM

I notice Pattersons have slashed their FY08 nickel price forecast from US$16.72/lb to US$14.64. NPAT forecast for FY08 downgraded from $188.8m (July 12 report) to $136.0m (August 16).

With nickel trading US$2 below their forecast, we can expect further downwards revisions.

Why? Pattersons are predicting an *average* FY08 nickel price of $14.64, not a *August 07* price of $14.64. Obviously reckons current low prices are an aberration (which I agree with), and that soon the Ni prices will increase to above $14.64.

OneUp

21-08-2007, 05:37 PM

Heavy Metal, thanks for your "clarification" but I know how to read a broker report. Obviously it's the forecast spot price over the coming year.

Pattersons can't just drop their 08 forecast US$4/lb in one hit, even if they wanted to, given how bullish they were just a couple of months ago. They'd be a laughing stock (or perhaps even more so). But they'll have little choice but to stagger it lower if spot doesn't recover. Nickel needs to recover just to avoid the risk of further profit downgrades for MCR.

A lot of metal prices are very highly leveraged to a shock to the world economy. It wouldn't take much slackening in demand to see very large surpluses on the nickel market. Metals have gone nuts as we've seen the rare confluence of every major economy being strong. The US is probably heading for a mild recession. The downside to nickel could be US$8-10/lb. That level would still be 300-400% above a few years ago.

Always worth keeping an eye on the downside rather than just the best case scenario.

Just pointing this out FYI. It's your money.