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thereslifeafter87
20-04-2006, 08:55 AM
We are in the middle of a commodities boom.

So which commodity has not yet begun surfing this wave?

Which commodity has good demand/supply fundamentals, but hasn't already doubled in price?

Which commodity has been overlooked by investors?

Discuss.

Mick100
20-04-2006, 09:42 AM
quote:Originally posted by thereslifeafter87

We are in the middle of a commodities boom.

So which commodity has not yet begun surfing this wave?

Which commodity has good demand/supply fundamentals, but hasn't already doubled in price?

Which commodity has been overlooked by investors?

Discuss.


I have been asking myself the same question thereslife
One group of commodities that are still at depressed prices are agricultural commodites. Rising energy prices are already beginning to push up production costs. The corn crop in the US is going to be significantly smaller in area this yr due to the doubling of the price of nitrgen fertiliser (made from nat gas) It's becoming much more costly to cultivate fields due to rising fuel costs. Marginal producers are being squeezed at the moment

In my view agricultural commods are going to be the next to fire
I'v been getting into position over the past few months.
.

whiteheron
20-04-2006, 09:49 AM
Mick 100

Be careful to watch the cost side as well as the gross return side of things though
A higher gross return does not necessarily equate to greater net returns --- increasing costs can eat up a lot as well

Mick100
20-04-2006, 10:01 AM
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron

Mick 100

Be careful to watch the cost side as well as the gross return side of things though
A higher gross return does not necessarily equate to greater net returns --- increasing costs can eat up a lot as well


The point that I was trying to make is that for some ag commods the increasing production costs are having the effect of reducing supply while demand remains constant or, in corn's case, increases due to ethanol demand. This can only lead to one thing - increased prices of these commods.
,

trendy
20-04-2006, 10:05 AM
Land.

Gofish.
20-04-2006, 10:05 AM
I suspect it will be forestry products.
Cost not so much an issue as the tress are there now, rather than seasonal crops.
Good 'ol NZ has recently sold a lot of its forests to the Americans who have taken a long view of the commodity cycle, and we may have now seen the bottom for forestry products.
Russians apparantly having trouble keeping up with Chinese demand.

Mick100
20-04-2006, 10:14 AM
quote:Originally posted by Gofish.

I suspect it will be forestry products.
Cost not so much an issue as the tress are there now, rather than seasonal crops.
Good 'ol NZ has recently sold a lot of its forests to the Americans who have taken a long view of the commodity cycle, and we may have now seen the bottom for forestry products.
Russians apparantly having trouble keeping up with Chinese demand.


Yes, I agree Gofish
Are there any companies left in NZ that I could invest in - to make an investment in trees ?
,

peter_s
20-04-2006, 10:54 AM
Rare earth minerals...LYC.

thereslifeafter87
20-04-2006, 11:33 AM
I had a look at LYC, very interesting. I will look at it more in depth.

Cheers.

donnie
20-04-2006, 11:41 AM
Ethanol might be one to look at try AAE ARW TPI

donnie
20-04-2006, 12:43 PM
maybe its going to be the year of the diamond.

Gofish.
20-04-2006, 12:58 PM
For rare earths don't overlook ARU - you also get a dash of U, gold, iron and whatever else is lurking in their carefully collected tenements.

For something different, this one looks a winner

www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,18864063-643,00.html

thereslifeafter87
20-04-2006, 01:25 PM
I have nowl ooked in depth(ish) at LYC - see my post on the LYC thread.

Mick100
20-04-2006, 03:33 PM
quote:Originally posted by donnie

Ethanol might be one to look at try AAE ARW TPI


I like the look of ARW
I'v put it on my watch list
,

kgee
20-04-2006, 04:13 PM
Diamonds...everyone loves luxury commodities in a boom and as india and china both follow and gain on the west....
presently 1 in 5 woman in Shanghai have diamonds
will that increase??? I don't really understand the fairer sex but I do understand keeping up with the Joneses
And as Marilyn would say Diamonds are a girls best friend
Pure speculation but

Skol
20-04-2006, 06:33 PM
Jim Rogers reckons it could be cotton.

jackt
20-04-2006, 07:38 PM
LYC is a bit of a strange bird.

1. It has the world's richest REE reserves. But that's not the same as saying that it is one of the world's largest reserve. The former refers to % REE content in the ore. The latter refers to total tonnage of REE in the ground. Has the estimated mine life been announced yet?

2. It has 244M ordinary shares; and 40M options issued at lower than current market price. The investor presentation in March 2005 indicated that the total NPAT for the first four years of operations is $5M+$9M+$13M+$20M = $47M. The implication is that the investor gets a cumulative total of 16c to 19c div over the same period. But there is a total of $23M accum. loss from 2003-2005. After making good the loss, there is only $24M profit. Would the directors prefer to use the profits for dividends or to plough it back as working capital?

Also, I don't know if the March 2005 presentation assumed future price rises for REE.

jackt
20-04-2006, 07:48 PM
I recall reading a post that argued that a sustained commodity bull run is dependent upon the lag in period between demand and supply. New supply of hard commodities like metals and gems require at least 6 years to eventuate: exploration...feasibility...scoping...mining...pro duction...sale.

For soft commodities like wheat and land, these require shorter timeframes. The argument appears persuasive but perhaps there are significant countervailing factors at play as well. Any thoughts?

whiteheron
20-04-2006, 08:34 PM
I favour the resource stocks

Main factors being:
Growth in world population
Increasing expectations for the good things in life , especially by the likes of China and India , requiring increased use of finite resources
Easy to mine resources largely already used
Production of many resources under pressure --- markets undersupplied , reducing stocks , to bring on new mines has long lead time and hugely increased costs both before and after commencement of mining

Conclusion , in my opinion is :
Go for stocks that are prodicing , or very close thereto that have the following characteristics :
Adequate reserves / resources for long mine life
Holding highly prospective tenements
Lower end of production cost scale
Production unhedged , or at least hedged to no more than 15% to 20%
Money in the bank , or at least low level of borrowing
Good and proven management with a history of underpromising and overdelivering
Operations located in safe environments --- country , political etc
Moderate share price , all things considered (this is a really hard one )

Those are a few of my thoughts ( but not an exhaustive list )

By the way , if anybody has found a company / companies meeting the above criteria I will be most appreciative of suggestions
A few companies that appeal to me are BMO , EXS , FXR , MCR , MMN , QGC , SMO --- but the share price for most of them has already had quite a lift

Kookaburra
21-04-2006, 11:14 AM
I favour wood products as the next commodity to boom and have purchased GNS. I prefer hardwood to soft. They have both wood chip and lumbar products. The price has been kept down by oversupply but the potential demadn from China and India is huge.

donnie
26-04-2006, 11:52 AM
ABJ AUSTRALIAN BIODIESEL is another one to add to the list. i see the depth on the sell side is getting smaller by the day could see $2 soon.




quote:Originally posted by donnie

Ethanol might be one to look at try AAE ARW TPI

thereslifeafter87
26-04-2006, 12:44 PM
quote:Originally posted by donnie

ABJ AUSTRALIAN BIODIESEL is another one to add to the list. i see the depth on the sell side is getting smaller by the day could see $2 soon.




quote:Originally posted by donnie

Ethanol might be one to look at try AAE ARW TPI


I compared ABJ and ARW.

ARW has the better supply contracts in that all of its production so far has been onsold. It also seems to have secure feedstock.

However, it is not yet in production, whereas ABJ is.

Also, ARW's capital costs per plant seem to be more than three times those of ABJ. ABJ is completing a 160million litre plant at the cost of $9mill, whereas ARW is completing 40-50mill litre plants at the cost of $20-$25mill EACH!

ABJ however, has no offtake agreements, and sales have been very slow.

ABJ does have its own proprietary technology, which is perhaps why its capital costs are much lower. It has made one sale of this technology for $2mill to a Canadian buyer. I am unsure as to whether there is an ongoing royalty stream from these sales.

trackers
21-10-2010, 03:27 PM
Toot toot, all aboard!



Rare-earth prices have jumped as Chinese export quotas crimped worldwide supplies for the elements used in the manufacture of disk drives, wind turbines and smart bombs.
Prices have climbed sevenfold in the last six months for cerium oxide, which is used for polishing semiconductors, and other elements have more than doubled, according to Metal-Pages Ltd. in London, which tracks rare-earth prices.
Actions by China, which produces more than 90 percent of the world’s rare earths, have drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers and officials in Japan and Germany. China reduced its second-half export quota for the minerals by 72 percent in July. It is now further restricting exports, according to industry participants.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-20/china-pledges-to-maintain-rare-earth-sales-official-says-exports-may-rise.html


NAV's off, GGG's off, RMR's off... ARV next to leave the station?

JBmurc
21-10-2010, 03:32 PM
NAV's off, GGG's off... ARV next to leave the station?[/QUOTE]

yeah hope so just brought another lot of ARV

Aotea
21-10-2010, 03:39 PM
And there is Ram RMR:ASX..another REE

trackers
24-10-2010, 05:02 PM
Rare-earth elements help give BlackBerrys their buzz, Toyota Priuses their battery power, and computer hard drives their spin.

The rare earths, a group of 17 metals including neodymium, lanthanum, cerium and europium, also have industrial and national-security uses, such as in petroleum refining, fiber- optics transmission, and military radar and missile-guidance systems.

The range of uses explains why U.S. lawmakers, officials in Japan and Germany and manufacturers of components that need these materials say they are alarmed by steps taken by China, which provides 97 percent of the world?s supply, to reduce exports by about three-quarters.

Components made with rare earths are so ubiquitous that they aren?t easily replaced, according to Jack Lifton, founder of Technology Metals Research LLC in Detroit, which advises investors in specialty metals. ?Without anyone noticing, the rare-earth magnets have become overwhelmingly essential,? he said yesterday.

Rare-earth magnets account for 80 percent of the market for ?permanent? magnets that retain their charge, up from zero in 1980, he said. They are in electric motors, small earphones and mobile phones. When a BlackBerry vibrates, a high-powered magnet made with neodymium is at work converting electrical power into mechanical energy.

?They are pervasive in our technology, especially in miniaturization of electronics,? Lifton said.

Automakers relying on neodymium-iron-boron magnets, used in power-steering equipment, ?are concerned about long-term access to under-the-hood magnets because they import them from China and Japan,? Lifton said in a phone interview.

Ford ?Monitoring? Situation

Todd Nissen, a spokesman for Ford Motor Co., said in an e- mailed statement that ?we?re monitoring the situation and do not expect any impact on our production.? He declined to comment on how any shortage of the minerals would affect commodity prices or on Ford?s sources of rare-earth metals.

While the elements aren?t as rare in nature as the name implies, they are difficult to find in profitable concentrations, expensive for Western producers to extract and often laced with radioactive elements. China has come to dominate the market because it has been able to produce the elements more cheaply and with fewer environmental restrictions than its competitors.

Japan, the largest importer of Chinese rare-earth materials, has said China halted shipments to Japanese users last month after a collision in disputed waters between a Chinese trawler and the Japanese Coast Guard led to the fishing- boat captain?s detention. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yo****o Sengoku said Oct. 20 that the import situation ?hadn?t changed? weeks after the captain?s release.

Chinese Delays

China said this week that it hasn?t suspended shipments to the U.S. and Europe, as reported on Oct. 20 by the New York Times. Chinese customs officials are delaying shipments by various means, such as imposing extra inspections, according to industry participants who spoke on condition of anonymity because of concern about Chinese reaction.

China?s 72 percent reduction in export quotas for the second half of this year, which it announced in July, and the customs delays since then are driving up prices. U.S. Representative Edward Markey, chairman of the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, asked the Obama administration on Oct. 21 to report on China?s export restrictions and ramifications for the military and U.S. clean- energy producers.

?Potential Threat?

China?s ?apparent willingness? to use its supply for leverage in wider international affairs ?poses a potential threat to American economic and national security interests,? the Massachusetts Democrat said in a letter to four Cabinet members.

China said in July that it cut export quotas to allow it to close polluting and inefficient mines while continuing to meet domestic needs. The nation will ?continue to supply rare earth to the world? while maintaining restrictions ?to protect exhaustible resources and ensure sustainable development,? the Commerce Ministry said in a statement Oct. 20.

Prices have climbed sevenfold in the last six months for cerium oxide, which is used for polishing semiconductors, and other elements have more than doubled, according to Metal-Pages Ltd. in London, which tracks rare-earth prices.

China accounts for about 36 percent of global rare-earth reserves, the largest share, and the U.S. is second, with 13 percent, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Molycorp?s Mine

The uncertainty over Chinese supplies and rising prices are encouraging efforts to produce new supplies. Molycorp Inc. is seeking $280 million in U.S. government loan guarantees to help finance restarting an open-pit mine in Mountain Pass, California, in the Mojave Desert. The mine once met almost all the world?s demand for rare-earth metals before closing down in 2002 due to competition from cheaper Chinese supplies. Molycorp plans to resume production by the end of 2012.

Makers of catalysts for the oil-refining industry are among the major users of rare earths in the U.S., Lifton said. Albemarle Corp. of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, W.R. Grace & Co. of Columbia, Maryland, and BASF SE?s catalysts unit in Iselin, New Jersey, are three of the largest importers of lanthanum, used to break down heavy crude into light crude, Lifton said.

Lanthanum also is used for nickel-metal hydride batteries that power hybrid cars, such as Toyota Motor Corp.?s Prius.

Toyota said last month it created a special unit to ensure its supply isn?t disrupted and recently announced a contract to obtain rare-earth metals from India. The carmaker, the world?s largest producer of gasoline-electric vehicles, also uses the materials in electric motors.

Lanthanum, Samarium

With the exception of lanthanum and samarium imported by Electron Energy Corp. of Landisville, Pennsylvania, the U.S. ?mostly imports finished products? made with rare-earth materials, Lifton said.

Electron Energy uses the samarium to make samarium-cobalt magnets that are used mostly in military applications, including missile guidance systems, radar, and electronic warfare systems.

Commercial and military airplanes also use samarium-cobalt magnets for power generation, Peter Dent, vice president for business development at Electron Energy, said in a phone interview.

?If you want to move an electron you need to have a magnetic field to do it,? Dent said. Magnets made from rare- earth materials do the job efficiently by ?either converting mechanical power to electrical energy or vice-versa,? he said.

Wind Turbines

Neodymium-based magnets also are used in wind turbines ?where they want as high a magnetic power as they can get,? Dent said.

Sarah Howell, spokeswoman for the American Wind Energy Association in Washington, said in a statement Oct. 21 that few utility-scale wind turbines in the U.S. currently use rare-earth metals.

?While their use in wind turbine technology is attractive, the rate at which they will be adopted in the future will depend in part on the cost, availability and reliability of supply,? she said. ?It?s also important to realize that the U.S. has domestic rare-earth resources that it can develop with capital- intensive investment, and that there is ongoing R&D on substitutes.?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-22/rare-earth-in-blackberry-to-prius-underscores-alarm-over-supply.html

trackers
30-04-2011, 10:10 AM
Interesting article here... Always wary of 'paradigm shift' type arguments but this one about resources in general is worth a read:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853

Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever

percy
30-04-2011, 05:45 PM
Interesting article here... Always wary of 'paradigm shift' type arguments but this one about resources in general is worth a read:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7853

Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever

Sober reading.The 50% increase in population is going to drive huge demand on all resources.Miners, transport,water and food production will be strong sectors.

elZorro
30-04-2011, 08:13 PM
Sober reading.The 50% increase in population is going to drive huge demand on all resources.Miners, transport,water and food production will be strong sectors.

That is certainly a well crafted article, and I agree entirely with it: there will be troubled times ahead, humans will need to be very co-operative, and that hasn't been our history all the time.

JackSprat
01-05-2011, 01:41 PM
So supply is lagging behind demand because population has gone ballistic and the poorer will get poorer and the rich richer; nothing new there. My 17yr old who surprises me more and more seemed to have this situation covered when he said that apparently bamboo (which grows 400% quicker than wood) is a commodity with numerous uses and I hadn't even mentioned the example in the article; so let's cover the rest of the planet in bamboo; Asia already does.

Valuegrowth
17-06-2013, 07:22 PM
Finally I am bearish on gold, corn and soya bean. There will be weak demand for all of the above commodities in the coming months. Both corn and soya bean inventories will go up in the second half of this year due to record harvests. Only weather shock will change the direction. Now even banks are down grading prospects for corn and soya bean.If investment demand continues to decline and gold ETF holders continue to sell, I believe a gold price below $1,000/oz .Gold will eventually return to its true cost of production.

In addition we have to accept no currency, stock or any commodity will go straight up and down. We had great rally for gold during last 10 years and gold cycle has reversed to bear territory now. There can be dead cat bounce for gold time to time and intelligent players will make use of this opportunity to sell their gold positions. It is time to become bullish on commodities with demand and supply mismatch and emerging commodities globally. Investors will have some great opportunityto pick some emerging commodity stocks globally in the coming weeks and months.In the long run gold, corn and soya bean prices will go up. Intermediate trend for these commodities are down now. Money will outflow from these commodities to the next most bullish commoditiesand stocks.

My ideas are not a recommendation toeither buy or sell any security,commodity or currency. Please do your own research priorto making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
07-07-2013, 04:43 PM
It is time to identify emerging commodities and next bull commodities before others. In the past we had some of the greatest bull markets for gold, copper, corn, coffee, sugar and soya bean. As I expected in 2012 now they are in a bear tertiary. Some are in the beginning of long term bear market. Now we will see bull markets for new baskets of commodities. Remember even in stock markets some missed the train when they left market during global credit and banking crisis without identifying future winners. Some sectors especially consumer staples outperform the broader market. Just because some commodities are crashing we should not forget the commodity market. There are opportunities even in commodity market.There are cash rich commodity stocks globally. In addition some other commodity stocks also get hammered when investors tried to sell gold, silver and other commodity stocks. It is similar to what happened to financial sector in the past. Later some financial stocks ended up with more than five or ten baggers. Everybody attention has gone to expected quantity easing. But there are plenty of silver linings in new development in commodity and currency market. Some sectors and companies in developed, emerging and frontier world particularly some export oriented food and beverage based companies and production companies are going to benefit loti n the coming quarters.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

stevo1
07-07-2013, 10:37 PM
Marketwinner try researching Graphene for a wonder material of the future massive potential.

Huang Chung
08-07-2013, 07:26 AM
Might be boring, but good ol' iron ore seems to have bottomed and might actually be staging a small recovery.

A lot of planned IO projects now seem to be in doubt, so, those actually in production now might do reasonably well if there is just enough demand to keep prices at these levels, whist at the same time keeping ore from potential new projects firmly in the ground. IO price falls for Aussie miners are, of course cushioned by the $A falling from around US $1.04 to US 90.5c, which is nothing to be sneezed at.

With the above train of thought, I bought back into Atlas Iron (AGO) last week. Wildcard event for them looks like being a rail deal.....presumably with Fortescue.

Valuegrowth
13-08-2013, 07:15 PM
Marketwinner try researching Graphene for a wonder material of the future massive potential.

Thank you for highlighting this commodity. I really appreciate.

ELYOB
13-08-2013, 08:39 PM
Oil oil oil! Next commodity to run in the bull sense .... My take it will lead the bull out next year ....plenty info around for the reasoning so I can be lazy here . Oil producers could well be winners . Gas will only have a tail end effect imho.

Joshuatree
14-08-2013, 12:43 PM
Not a commodity as such , but Sandalwood Oil re $2000 kg, yes $2000 !! is highly sought after. Becoming rare in the wild{poached. cutdown). TFC on ASX is nearing its first harvest( re 14+ years from planting to extracting) and has the largest plantations(in Aus) of Sandalwood trees globally and is well ahead of any others .

POSSUM THE CAT
14-08-2013, 02:27 PM
Joshuatree they have been saying that for at least the last seven years. This get rich scheme has been for years. IMHO it was a scam. I was getting mailers on how rich you could get out of investing in sandalwood plantations before I left Aus in 2006.

Joshuatree
14-08-2013, 02:37 PM
No its not a scam. They have the plantations and first harvest is soon. have followed this for some years and been in and out , currently in and awaiting first harvest. Thanks possum but suggest you do a little research .

stevo1
14-08-2013, 09:19 PM
No its not a scam. They have the plantations and first harvest is soon. have followed this for some years and been in and out , currently in and awaiting first harvest. Thanks possum but suggest you do a little research .
Joshuatree I have done some research and it seems to me that there is a fishy smell around this company .Like so many listed on the ASX these days .I suggest anyone interested should go back over ALL the releases to ASX over the last 5 years none of it is transparent or without controversy or dissension .All a bit too opaque for me ,All other opinions welcome

Joshuatree
14-08-2013, 10:40 PM
Yes lack of transparency and CEO wielding too much control have been issues as have valuations etc.. The update and strategic review(2nd of July)is a signal that changes are happening e.g. an independent chairman will be appointed.An increased exposure to directly owned plantation assets to 2,300 hectares , the balance of re 4200 hectares are managed by TFC who also clip the ticket with harvesting/ processing/selling. Clearer more consistent market disclosures are promised. Management need to follow through. First harvest maynot provide high yields but as plantation practices have improved alot since the future looks good and i think i have a good margin of safety,I bought back in @ 43c. TFC is the only survivor of the MIS schemes and while i cant place the fig, it does not rely on MIS atp. DYOR

janner
14-08-2013, 10:59 PM
The greatest commodity ever ??..

Hmmm..

Plain .. Good old fashioned ..

COMMON SENSE..

Becoming increasingly hard to find any where in this world today !!...

Joshuatree
14-08-2013, 11:07 PM
Good luck , seek it out.:cool:

janner
14-08-2013, 11:30 PM
Good luck , seek it out.:cool:

Have never given up the search :-))

Find it occassionally .. Then put my money behind it.. Works well..

Valuegrowth
14-09-2013, 04:17 PM
China is once again coming through with some good news. The oldest of old players, Japan is also not bad. We cannot forget South Korea as well. These three players are some of the active economic players in the world. We have got some source of stability. Frontier markets are in the initial stage of their economy and capital market developments. Some emerging markets and developed markets may have some volatility. Overall we may see gradual demand for some commodities. The trend has shifted in stock, commodity and currency market. Therefore new sectors, out of favour commodities, currencies and stocks including emerging stocks, currencies and commodities will lead markets in the coming years. Emerging markets will readjust again.

If we believe in stronger economic growth, then it is time to increase our exposure to the good commodity stocks

The current environment has opportunity. We can see the extremes of undervaluation for commodity stocks and some emerging markets now.

I think that the commodity stock rally is just getting started, and they should outperform the broader stock markets at least for some selected commodities including emerging commodities

Some Chinese Stocks And Commodity Stocks Are Bargains now.

Value orientated contrarian investors may identify cheap valuations in commodity stocks combined with extreme negative sentiment and improving fundamentals.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
20-09-2013, 06:20 PM
We have to follow new development in the global stocks and commodity markets now.

Not tapering is favourable for financial, investment and commodity stocks. Gold stocks too may shine at least in the short run. Globally commodity stocks are having their day now. If I am correct Johannesburg's gold mining index surged 8 percent to its highest in 10 days. As I said before commodity, stock and currency market are not dead. There will be plenty of opportunities in the coming decade.

Even if we have tapering still some sectors and some commodity producers will benefit.

Next couple of months is very crucial for gold market. We will see next trend in gold market in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions

KiwiGreen
24-09-2013, 01:56 PM
I am surprised to see no talk of Uranium on this thread - or any other I can find.

I have become quite interested in the Uranium story. Although certain developments need to transpire before the spot price is likely to move forward it is hard to argue that at this 8 year low uranium hasn't found its bottom. Spot prices are now below many company's C1 costs, and even the long term prices - closer to US$50 - are making many businesses unprofitable. The current price is deterring exploration and mine development while flirting with mines shutting down and companies folding.

To disclose my position, I have no exposure to Uranium and am new to the stock market this year. I guess my thinking is that some of these uranium companies have fallen on bad times due to factors outside of their control. They are still fundamentally good companies who would have a much higher SP and likely be paying good dividends now if it weren't for Fukushima and it's related dent in demand and sentiment toward the sector.

There are several ASX listed companies in exploration, development and production. None are particularly a stand out obvious choice for investment - IMO. Looking further abroad, some of the companies overseas (US, CAN) look more primed, however this is all of course priced into their SP. IMO when (when might still be too strong a word) Uranium demand comes back and prices increase then there will be a lot of upside in companies that can get themselves into decent production fast enough.

I am happy to share articles etc. on here if a discussion pursues.

I am very interested to hear from those who have been researching this same sector - what companies they believe are most primed to take advantage of increased Ux demand and why. Also any information relating to future demand/supply changes etc.

I am even more interested in counter arguments. E.g. If the gas sector really gets moving, could this replace nuclear for some countries like Japan, Germany, US.

Please also let me know if this is not the right place to post this.

Bobcat.
24-09-2013, 05:16 PM
There are MANY nuclear power stations being built (with several in China and Japan starting theirs up again) due mainly to the soaring price of oil and natural gas but also because the public are less paranoid now, recognising its clean energy.

The main downward pressure is Fukushima's problem which kicked started the present downward trend - once that's resolved, we can expect upward pressure on prices at which point I'll begin accumulating.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Handwerger/2013-07-18-Five-Signs-Uranium-Could-Explode-Higher-In-The-Second-Half.html

Discl: Holding ERA and PDN

KiwiGreen
25-09-2013, 03:59 PM
Yeh ERA and PDN are definitely two of the options that get decent coverage.

My view is that PDN would be in a good/better position to capitalise on the potential supply deficit (increase in Ux price), however looking over the last 6 years of their financials it is reasonably worrying to see no profits and net assets decreasing from $1.3B in 2007 to less than $650m now (of course they have had huge impairment charges). As we know they are now in a lot of debt. On the plus side the 200m payment from Electricité de France S.A. (E de F) is encouraging. It would be interesting to see the details of that contract, e.g. what price will 'E de F' have gotten per pound Ux and what rights they might have to PDN's assets if PDN forecloses. I have held off investing here due to the the huge debt and the fear that they wont outlast the current Ux price lows. Got to be decent upside if they do though I guess.

ERA is the opposite, net assets have about tripled from the 2007 report at around $600m to almost $2B in 2012. They are much more mature of course and made good profits when the market conditions were favorable (unlucky on the suspension in operations in 2011 - don't know the full story on this but am interested in hearing the history). However their Ux resources are are verging on depletion and cash (& cash equivalents) is reducing - $632m in 2011, $315m now. I really like the fact the market cap is 710m, yet they have current assets of slightly over this. What has so far stopped me investing is I am worried whether with their production dwindling they will be the most primed to take advantage of a Ux price rise. Still I think this is a safe bet with upside if they get Ranger 3 deeps into decent scale production.

I would really like to hear your knowledge of the history and prospective future of Jabiluka. If the natives were happy and ERA decided to progress, are they already someway into the mine construction/preparation? I know they originally started developing the mine but not sure how far they got before putting it into maintenance mode.

Together PDN and ERA balance each other out quite well i think.

For me the most ideal company would be one that is in the very early stages of production or late stages of development. You look at PDNs story - they started developing and constructing their projects when Ux was on the up and right when in peaked they were just getting their output volumes going. Having said that if you bought them early on and sold in 2007 you'd be happy as Larry, so nothing to say an exploration company with a good deposit and management team couldn't do really well int he coming year either. A comparatively low cost of production is important, and of course funding. That is the dream anyway haha. There are a couple of companies in the States that tick those boxes but would be nice to invest closer to home. ACB are an interesting play who have the Letlhakane Uranium and Coal Project. Also there is a lot of talk around TOE who plan to start production in 2016.

Any other small caps you guys think could be well positioned for a jump in Uranium.

Dej
25-09-2013, 04:08 PM
Marketwinner try researching Graphene for a wonder material of the future massive potential.

Agreed, try AXE on the ASX for a company that is well on the way to being a producer of graphene quality graphite.

Valuegrowth
18-10-2013, 08:18 PM
Despite government shutdown, debt ceiling debate, and economic uncertainty, there were number of very good commodity stocks globally in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. Recently we saw the extremes of undervaluation for commodity stocks and some emerging markets. Later they had rally. We may see large Gains ahead in some commodity stocks including cyclical Commodity Stocks in the coming months. They should outperform the broader stock market.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
10-11-2013, 03:19 PM
Gold may have some volatility. I am bearish on gold in 2014. I am bearish on Oil too.

Remember few months back speculation on tapering made panic among market players globally. They sold not only gold but also their own currencies and stocks. Later rebounded them strongly.

I am following few more commodities including Tea. There are more things to learn in the commodity world.

Currently when compare with other tea auctions tea prices in Sri-Lankan auction are fetching record tea prices. They are having all time average tea prices now. First all time tea averages recorded in September 2013 and it continued into October breaking previous high recorded in September. Though Indian tea prices have come down little bit still tea companies can enjoy benefits due to lower Indian rupee against USD.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Valuegrowth
01-01-2014, 07:53 PM
Happy New Year and have a wonderful 2014!

As I said before both commodity and stock market are not dead. At different times some commodity and commodity stocks will outperform others. I am bullish on zinc, meat, pepper, tea and few more commodities. I am slightly bullish on copper as well.

The EU-28 boiler sector is expected to grow in 2014. Domestic demand is slowly increasing. The significant decrease of grain prices in the EU-28 since the spring of 2013 will increase operating margins. It is same in the USA. Globally grain elevators and poultry producers could increase their profit margin in 2014.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...x#.UsO9yPQW2WY (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/30/the-chicken-menu-is-looking-healthy-for-2014.aspx#.UsO9yPQW2WY)

The Chicken Menu Is Looking Healthy for 2014

http://tribune.com.pk/story/652358/e...cken-shoot-up/ (http://tribune.com.pk/story/652358/essential-eatables-prices-of-eggs-chicken-shoot-up/)

Essential eatables: Prices of eggs, chicken shoot up

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultr...s-poultry-plan (http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/31036/scottish-government-launches-poultry-plan)

Scottish Government Launches Poultry Plan

http://www.wattagnet.com/Poultry_is_Mississippi_s_top_commodity_for_19th_st raight_year.html

Poultry is Mississippi's top commodity for 19th straight year
Mississippi poultry valued at $2.7 billion, say Mississippi State University experts

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

janner
01-01-2014, 08:23 PM
Happy New Year and have a wonderful 2014!

As I said before both commodity and stock market are not dead. At different times some commodity and commodity stocks will outperform others. I am bullish on zinc, meat, pepper, tea and few more commodities. I am slightly bullish on copper as well.

The EU-28 boiler sector is expected to grow in 2014. Domestic demand is slowly increasing. The significant decrease of grain prices in the EU-28 since the spring of 2013 will increase operating margins. It is same in the USA. Globally grain elevators and poultry producers could increase their profit margin in 2014.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...x#.UsO9yPQW2WY (http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/30/the-chicken-menu-is-looking-healthy-for-2014.aspx#.UsO9yPQW2WY)

The Chicken Menu Is Looking Healthy for 2014

http://tribune.com.pk/story/652358/e...cken-shoot-up/ (http://tribune.com.pk/story/652358/essential-eatables-prices-of-eggs-chicken-shoot-up/)

Essential eatables: Prices of eggs, chicken shoot up

http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultr...s-poultry-plan (http://www.thepoultrysite.com/poultrynews/31036/scottish-government-launches-poultry-plan)

Scottish Government Launches Poultry Plan

http://www.wattagnet.com/Poultry_is_Mississippi_s_top_commodity_for_19th_st raight_year.html

Poultry is Mississippi's top commodity for 19th straight year
Mississippi poultry valued at $2.7 billion, say Mississippi State University experts

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.


With poultry prices increasing.. Are you saying .. Sell KFC ??

Valuegrowth
04-01-2014, 09:12 PM
If we can do some home work we can have some idea before taking any decision. Remember there is great demand for KFC products in some countries.

If I am correct Yum! is ranked #201 on the Fortune 500 List with revenues of over $13 billion in 2012 and in 2013. The Company’s restaurant brands KFC, PIZZA Hutt and Taco Bell are the global leaders of the chicken, pizza and Mexican-style food categories.

As I said before commodity and stock markets are not dead. There are opportunities. I believe it is time to identify emerging commodities. For example it is expected that zinc market could turn the metal into one of the best performers in the coming years due to looming supply shortage. What about poultry and beef? It is expected as a commodity and food both poultry and beef market to do well in the coming decade. Of course it is going to be wonderful year for chicken and beef in 2014. Please see following link that not only emerging world such as China and India but also Americans are going to eat more chicken in the coming years.

It could be different ball game in the coming decade. It is expected that USD could become bull currency in 2014 and 2015. It will be the game changer in many ways. I am one of the big bulls for USD and one of the big bears for both AUD and NZD. No commodity will stay high or low for ever. During last couple of years when global economy was not doing well all type of market players were desperate to park their money somewhere. So they parked some of their money in NZD and AUD as well. In the commodity world all types of metals and grain also got boost from these types of money. As I said now it is going to be different ball game. It is expected that some sectors are going to benefit lot in the coming years.

http://resourceinvestingnews.com/64886-zinc-outlook-mine-closures-may-push-prices-up-in-2014.html

Zinc Outlook: Mine Closures May Push Prices Up in 2014 (http://resourceinvestingnews.com/64886-zinc-outlook-mine-closures-may-push-prices-up-in-2014.html)Monday December 30, 2013, 4:30am PST

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/02/chicken-vs-beef_n_4525366.html#!
Chicken More Popular Than Beef In U.S. For First Time In 100 YearsMy ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

Valuegrowth
11-12-2015, 04:18 AM
It is time to identify new emerging commodities due to following reasons.

We cannot expect strong recovery in oil, gold and grain prices in the near future. Long term outlook for grain is flat. Grain prices are poised for declines over the next few years although there could be some short term rally. In addition, there could have further reduction in demand for grain from the ethanol industry.

http://www.agweb.com/article/2016-outlook-look-for-3-corn-to-continue-naa-nate-birt/

2016 Outlook: Look for $3 Corn to Continue

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-loonie-markets-1.3357670

Oil slides after IEA predicts even lower crude prices

http://www.agweb.com/article/abengoas-woes-risk-widening-grain-glut-on-biofuel-concern/

Abengoa’s Woes Risk Widening Grain Glut on Biofuel Concern

Which commodity will fall next? Which commodity will have more demand in the coming years?

JBmurc
11-12-2015, 05:21 PM
I agree on many of the bulk commodities staying at these lower levels ....for the foreseeable future ...

U308 , Gold my picks for doing better in 2016 than previous years esp in lower Currencies like the AUD which will continue to be dragging lower

BlackPeter
11-12-2015, 06:12 PM
Actually - oil price, grain price and probably some other resources (like e.g. milk) are connected: Cheaper oil means reduced (or no) incentive to mix ethanol into the fuel. This reduces the pressure on grain (which is the ingredient for "bio-fuel / ethanol") and with that the grain price.

So I guess the question is just ... how long do the Saudis want to keep the oil price low? Who knows, but I think that a modest appreciation of oil (as well as grain) is next year more likely than a further drop ... depends on how long the Saudis enjoy to keep shooting themselves into their feet (I understand the US sold them plenty of bullets to continue this exercise ...).

Other resources?

Personally I would think that gold is more likely to go up than further down (but this might be wishful thinking). Previously gold tended to appreciate when people have been fearful - and I think with idiots like Trump in the race for the next US president we don't need to expect terrorist activities to reduce.

I always thought that IO and Coking coal should go up when oil goes down (more money to fund infrastructure when energy is cheap) - but so far this didn't work out, so not sure about the coming year.

Could imagine that stuff required to build "renewable energy" generators might appreciate (you need e.g. various "rare earth elements" to build solar panels - and whatever you need to build batteries for all these electrical cars we talk about for the last 40 years or so (and now they really might come). Lithium? Aluminium might go up as well if we want to save the planet - and obviously HPA (discl: hold a handful of ATC ;));

Ah yes - one resource is for sure to go up in price: Water. Not sure, whether I could point to an easy way to invest into that (yet), but it might be worth some more research.

Discl: hold NZO, TAP, TRY, BRL (traces) and some ATC;

JBmurc
11-12-2015, 06:56 PM
I agree on many of the bulk commodities staying at these lower levels ....for the foreseeable future ...and most likely years of flat to 10% movement..

U308 , Gold my picks for doing better in 2016 than previous years esp in lower Currencies like the AUD which will continue to be dragged lower...

biker
11-12-2015, 09:33 PM
Ahhh the commodity cycle. Getting near the bottom I would presume. The question is how flat the bottom will be. If you have patience (and maybe lots will be required) then iron ore, coking coal, oil, copper, potash and others, will eventually recover. A good example could be BHP, obtainable under $17 probably. Given a couple of years IMO a 100% gain is not inconceivable but of course it is looking pretty grim at the moment.
Is there a better time to buy?
If the thought is that 'this time things are different' stay well away from commodities.
Im holding BRL, BHP, ELM, TAP, EWC and others.
For those with patience this could be a rare opportunity. On the other hand, in the bank may be the place for commodity cash for a while longer. Who knows?
What we do know is that history shows there is a cycle.

JBmurc
11-12-2015, 09:44 PM
Yes Best time to Buy Is when the miners are turning a Qtr profit IMHO yes you will miss out on some of the gains but your also be de-risked hugely.....never ever buy because the SP is just so low and in the past they did this and that ....great way to lose a ton of cash ....MCR great company sold my lot over 60c now 18c and wouldn't touch with a barge pole ...the bottom could well last many years

For me Gold producers or soon to be producers(and very spec funds in explorers of large targets) ...but if the AUD gold price heads below $1300oz I'm out (most likely be out before then alway)

- Uranium purely on the demand coming from so many Nuclear plants coming on stream ..and again small spec funds till the story plays out ...

Not even looking at the rest of the resources sector outside some of the tech materials like HPA-ATC.asx