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brisand
21-04-2006, 10:38 PM
Coffey International is a very interesting share, it has various business's around the world and has shown that it can produce consistent great returns, 1 yr 52%, 3yr 78%, 5yr 48%, 10yr 29%.
The CEO has said that they are looking at other business's and that they hope for a 50% growth in earnings over the next 3 years. Capitalised at $241 million.

buns
19-04-2011, 02:03 PM
Oh how things have changed in this business..

Coffey was hovering around $5 mark, paying big dividends when the above 2 comments were made. Now at 68c, dividends cut and trending lower in a hurry.

I’m on the look out for businesses (in growth industries) implementing a turn around. I’m seeing a lot of companies out there who coming out the other side of a GFC turn around. The (forecasted) hockey stick/growth years are coming up soon for companies who can pull this off.

COF came on my radar – Professional services consultancy, focusing on physical and social infrastructure. Has 8 different service lines, and delivers projects in four sectors: infrastructure; resources; government; and property.

The company obviously made some big mistakes (Wholesale acquisition strategy over about 5 years was poor, heaps of waste in cost, then smashed by the GFC), but over the last wee while have laid the ground work for a big turnaround. They are turning into a pretty lean business, selling assets, taking cost out as communicated to investors, with another $18m to come in FY12 (over half of current EBITDA).

Whilst doing this they have had some awful luck which has pushed things back a tad- Flooding and mining tax being the big gut punchers, and some contracts which fell through.

As it stands the Adjusted ($5m of restructure costs) FY11 EBITDA will be about $30-38m, Revenue around $700-750m. Market cap $90m (trending down)– Revenue to Market cap/EV here is substantial!

With all the one off costs, restructuring behind them, as well as some newly signed contracts and huge cost out plans in place. EBITDA for FY12 should rise substantially, and again in FY13 with incremental cost out.

FY12 EBITDA could near the $60m mark (around 3 times non adjusted FY11 EBITDA), Looking at this forecasted EBITDA, and considering where this MC/EV is heading, this is getting cheap. Forward EV/EBITDA heading below 3. Debt/EBITDA following this will half to manageable levels, with a CR around the corner. Current Interest cover is ok.

Any fundamental investors have any thoughts on when best to enter these companies? With a moderate tolerance for risk, when is the best time to enter? What to look out for when doing valuations? Or any direct thoughts on COF/this industry?

drillfix
19-04-2011, 02:37 PM
Seems that this stocks price keeps getting technically slapped down by the 60ema and then riding the 13ema downwards.

On a different note, can whoever started this thread add the actual stock code to the heading Title? That would be also helpful to other forum searchers and readers.

Jay
19-04-2011, 03:24 PM
On a different note, can whoever started this thread add the actual stock code to the heading Title? That would be also helpful to other forum searchers and readers.

Unlikely Drill - last post for briand was 2009

drillfix
19-04-2011, 03:32 PM
Unlikely Drill - last post for briand was 2009

LOL Jay, sorry mate, my mistake.

No wonder much posts have been made since its done a huge tumble form up in the dollars to lower lows all the way.

If this stock had a short sell recommendation then I would understand as it is either completely unloved or completely mismanaged which means heads on the board need to roll, or something of that natue.

Cheers~!

buns
08-06-2011, 10:46 AM
Trading halt has been lifted.

The announcement being a full strategic review of COF!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=COF&E=ASX&N=637094


I’ve merely ran my eyes over the announcement, but it seems very honest and even quite ruthless.

If you are a believer, this is a potential value opportunity – FY12 EBITDA guidance of $45m compared to a market cap of $65m!

I’m going to dig into this some more – will post my findings/thoughts.

CAM
08-06-2011, 11:40 AM
I will be interested in what you find out.

buns
08-06-2011, 12:17 PM
I will be interested in what you find out.

Well I probably will find out its good news!

The market has reacted positively, up 25% in the first hour- So that EBITDA to market cap has spread a tad, $45m EBITDA on a $82m MC.

I should have started my analysis during the trading halt, so I could have acted on a dime come announcement and possibly held some of today’s gains.

Make sure you understand your watch list hm..

More importantly - Good to see some Waikato members on ST!

Huang Chung
08-06-2011, 06:54 PM
Another company in the same space (engineering and environmental consulting, international aid) is Cardno (CDD). In my experience (and I've held both in the past) Cardno seems to be a more consistant performer, and they recently forecast a record profit.

Worth a look, if you haven't done so already.

Packersoldkidney
08-06-2011, 10:24 PM
Mate used to work for them a few years ago. He worked in environmental repatriation, rehabing old petrol station sites etc. Said they were awful bosses. They had a quota of the amount of time employees had to have in terms of contact with the client - it was something like 37% or something? My mate said it was very difficult to "meet the quota" - he was working 12 hour days but basically paid for less. The workers had to have it down to within 15 minutes over a month block - all of the other stuff they had to do at work, emails, paperwork etc had to be done in the other 63%. All of the workers were unhappy there. They had a high staff-turnover. My mate has since found a job in the same industry but with much better employers. I suspect they will find it difficult to get quality staff while the unemployment rate in Australia is under 5%.

I don't know what this says about Coffey if you are a shareholder - I suspect there is not a lot of fat in the organisation - sounds like they've wrung out the blood from the stone. Good sector to be in though given the investment in it. That is all.

percy
09-06-2011, 07:04 PM
up 12.3% today to finish 68.5 cents.

Lizard
09-08-2012, 03:24 PM
Having a bit of recovery off the lows, with good cashflow at FY. Currently 42cps.

percy
09-08-2012, 05:37 PM
Yes the market liked the full year result.I enjoyed the full year presentation.Debt down,focused company,but the highlight was ;
"Expect current positive EBITDA trajectory to continue."
Is trajectory the new buzz word.? CAJ also used it.Does it mean the are going like a rocket,or is it more of a hiss and a roar.?
Whatever, I find myself "well positioned" for future "trajectory." Or should I be poised?

Lizard
09-08-2012, 06:21 PM
Cool, we have a new seasonal word! "Trajectory". I'm excited!

To the stratosphere!!!

(Let's hope they don't miscalculate - suggest they recruit trajectory specialists from NASA rather than defence force. :t_up:)

Joshuatree
17-10-2012, 12:54 PM
"fundamental attractiveness" latest buzzy word in presentation out yest. Market likes it up 1.5c today after drifting to 38c. Reminds me of a sky rocket i let off at the Ohiwa beach once. It skimmed over the surface of the sea and occasionly under it for a surprising distance before its little climax of stars. Keen to buy a few of these.

trackers
17-10-2012, 01:01 PM
I find myself "well positioned" for future "trajectory."


This is so good :t_up:

Joshuatree
18-10-2012, 11:54 AM
Hmmh dropping away again some more ,now 37c insto bailing? Very tempting price now.

Corporate
27-11-2012, 11:46 AM
I purchased some thing morning at 31.5c (market cap of ~$80m). Plan is to hold for the longer term.

percy
27-11-2012, 05:05 PM
I purchased some thing morning at 31.5c (market cap of ~$80m). Plan is to hold for the longer term.
My long term hold is because a short term hold didn't work out.!!!!!! lol

Corporate
29-11-2012, 02:01 PM
It seems like I'm the only one that is buying Coffey at the moment :-)

Stranger_Danger
29-11-2012, 03:00 PM
Nah I'm buying a few, in an unconvinced manner.

Joshuatree
29-11-2012, 09:32 PM
Still waiting to enter, close now.Corp its worth reading more of camdens posts , he is a retired fund manager and shares generously if a little absent minded revisiting posts.

Corporate
30-11-2012, 06:27 AM
Still waiting to enter, close now.Corp its worth reading more of camdens posts , he is a retired fund manager and shares generously if a little absent minded revisiting posts.

Thanks Joshua. I have read quick a few of his posts and was pleased to find out subsequently that he was interested in Coffey. Do you know Camden's full name or what they fund was?

Joshuatree
30-11-2012, 11:08 AM
No ,asked him a few years back hoping to put some funds with him. Believe he is authentic but on H/C agendas abound. COF announcement today looks like div in march re 9% plus (guessing). Upped my buy before open and think i got some @31.5c. cheers

Corporate
30-11-2012, 11:15 AM
No ,asked him a few years back hoping to put some funds with him. Believe he is authentic but on H/C agendas abound. COF announcement today looks like div in march re 9% plus (guessing). Upped my buy before open and think i got some @31.5c. cheers

Over the last week I managed to get 30,000 @ 31c and 30,000 @ 31.5c. Fairly happy with that. Check out the image I loaded onto HC from the annual review. It is fairly indicative that dividends will be coming in FY13.

Joshuatree
30-11-2012, 02:47 PM
Yes thanks had a look earlier. Had to chase it a little after announcement.Got my first gulp today @ 31.5. Opus in NZ been dropping too;in a similar out of favour sector.

percy
30-11-2012, 06:39 PM
Yes thanks had a look earlier. Had to chase it a little after announcement.Got my first gulp today @ 31.5. Opus in NZ been dropping too;in a similar out of favour sector.

Wasn't that long ago that COF sold their rail division to OIC.Funny reading both announcements.A win win situation for both companies.!!! Yeah Right.!

Joshuatree
30-11-2012, 09:19 PM
So who do you thinkgot the best deal?. And you have a foot in both camps ?:)

percy
30-11-2012, 09:29 PM
So who do you thinkgot the best deal?. And you have a foot in both camps ?:)

Easy.OIC, as they are in wife's name, while COF are in my name.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Joshuatree
30-11-2012, 09:36 PM
Haha foot in both camps kinda spin.

Corporate
06-01-2013, 08:47 AM
Coffey has been doing well of late, closing at 36c.

Looking forward to the half year result, lower debt, steady EBITDA and a dividend.

Still very cheap for those that can pick up stock.

percy
24-04-2013, 05:36 PM
Plenty of stock avaliable today.!!!!!
Down 35% on profit downgrade.
Finished at 19.5cents.

tosspot
24-04-2013, 07:37 PM
Yea mighty tempted to jump in for a quick upturn. Going off others that dropped hugely like Codan and syrah should shot up halfway back to where it was but may drop further. Will keep an eye on it

Joshuatree
24-04-2013, 10:04 PM
Yes am tempted to top up for a LONGER term play.
OPUS (nzx) been on a downer for some time.

percy
25-04-2013, 07:17 AM
Yes am tempted to top up for a LONGER term play.
OPUS (nzx) been on a downer for some time.

I sold the wife out of OIC at the right time.Thought the charts and things were looking good for COF and added to my holding.Yes market may have over reacted,however I will not be adding to my holding.Thought of selling at 24cents yesterday,then decided to sit tight.

Joshuatree
13-05-2013, 04:35 PM
COF has hit a low of currently re 12.5c, lots of suspended and cancelled projects. seems to have over reacted on the down side to me.

Stranger_Danger
13-05-2013, 05:15 PM
Yuck, my ugliest holding at present. Wonder how much is company specific? If not all of it, then doesn't bode well...

percy
13-05-2013, 07:12 PM
One is reminded of the old definition of a long term holding.
A short term one that did not work out.!!!!!!
Great to see a buyer at 9.9cents.>>......... Yeah right.!
I suppose the lesson learnt is that turn arounds usually take longer/or they don't work.

tosspot
13-05-2013, 09:19 PM
this is my worst day of trading ever. gee thats Coffey I thought the market had already priced in the damn profit downgrade

Joshuatree
14-05-2013, 12:23 PM
Re 8 million shares moved so far today s/p 11 to 11.5c.

tosspot
14-05-2013, 12:56 PM
Re 8 million shares moved so far today s/p 11 to 11.5c.
yea I chipped in, couldnt stand the lose bought at 23.5c and now again another chunk at 11c hoping for it to bounce back up to 16c so i got my money back

mark100
14-05-2013, 01:57 PM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2637-Cardno-Group-CDD/page4&highlight=cdd

I've been cold on engineering consultants for sometime (see link above). I can vouch that other than some flood related work in south east QLD it is quieter than ever and redundancies continue across the board

percy
14-05-2013, 02:06 PM
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2637-Cardno-Group-CDD/page4&highlight=cdd

I've been cold on engineering consultants for sometime (see link above). I can vouch that other than some flood related work in south east QLD it is quieter than ever and redundancies continue across the board

Coffey should be getting plenty of work here in Christchurch.Seen a couple of their utes.

steve fleming
14-05-2013, 08:35 PM
Coffey should be getting plenty of work here in Christchurch.Seen a couple of their utes.

Percy - Christchurch actually made it on to the front page of the release where it was noted to be one of the stand-out regions (with Toronto and Calgary)!

Unfortunately with debt now at 4 x EBITDA, there is going to be huge pressure for a capital raising, which is likely to keep prices depressed.

Hard to believe this was over $4 pre GFC.

Looks like the mining slowdown has now spread downstream, and the infrastructure projects that were necessary to support planned mining investment, are now being cancelled as well.

Joshuatree
14-05-2013, 10:09 PM
Thanks KW and Steve, youve helped me whip my contrarian ego into its appropriate size:)

soulman
14-05-2013, 10:54 PM
Cold (actually more like Frozen!) on ALL mining related companies. Even other infrastructure services companies are being hit just in case there is some mining exposure. While the rest of the market is booming (financials and telecommunications) I really don't see the point in bothering with this sector. There is easy money to be made elsewhere - don't waste your time waiting for a "turnaround". There isnt one coming. I have friends who work in this area, they are all being laid off.

No turnaround here. Turnaround takes years and years and by that time COF could be under 5 cents.

One thing I learned from GFC is about stocks that go to zero. Like percy said in this statement:

One is reminded of the old definition of a long term holding.
A short term one that did not work out.!!!!!!

I got into a few dogs that went to zero and learn the hard lessons. If you see (during GFC), CBA went down to $27, WBC at $15, ANZ at $12, NAB at $18, MQG at $15 and WES at $17. One might hold those in the long term portfolio. Seeing all those stocks have more than doubled now is a sure win. When one of your stock goes to zero, that's the worst pain.

Joshuatree
15-05-2013, 11:44 AM
Then one sees MAH bounce re 50% on update; Go figure!!

mark100
15-05-2013, 12:07 PM
MAH still looks pretty sick to me

Entrep
15-05-2013, 12:18 PM
This situation is EXACTLY why I recommend everyone read Alexander Elder, Trading for a Living. Its about the psychology of trading, and how it and not skill, determines who will be successful long term. You have to learn to let go, to not fight the market, to not convince yourself that you are right and everyone else is wrong, that you will be proven right in the end. If it takes one big loss to learn the lesson, then consider it money well spent. But if you keep doing it over and over, rather than either (a) selling and preserving your capital, or (b) selling and reinvesting in a different sector - then ultimately you will not be a successful investor.

Old market maxim - when a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with the money while the other leaves with experience.

I learnt this lesson the hard way, having invested in AREITs during the GFC. Never again!

Thanks KW I will check out that book

steve fleming
15-05-2013, 07:45 PM
"Around 40% of Coffey’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) comes from aid work" - never realised that, in fact i don't think that is correct.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Foreign aid


On the flipside, the government’s move to defer the increase in foreign aid could not come at a worse time for Coffey International (COF).
Shares in the professional services consultancy suffered its worst one day sell-off on Monday of 57% to a record low 10 cents when it issued a shock profit downgrade due to a surge in resource project cancellations and delays in just the past two months.
Coffey, which has a market cap of $29 million, cannot count on foreign aid work to provide much of an offset to the slowdown. Around 40% of Coffey’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) comes from aid work, with AusAID making up a quarter of the division’s fee revenue. The balance comes from US and UK foreign aid work.
A company spokesperson told Eureka Report that Australia’s decision to postpone its commitment to lift foreign aid to 0.5% of gross national income by another year to 2017-18 will not have an impact on earnings, but the news will nonetheless be a further drag on sentiment.
What is alarming is that Australia may continue to step back from its aid target if the budget continues to struggle to get back into the black. Cutting overseas aid is one of the most politically palatable ways to squeeze extra savings for a government running a deficit, and the US and UK governments are probably thinking along the same lines.


Read more at Eureka Report: http://www.eurekareport.com.au/article/2013/5/15/small-caps/budget-brings-small-cap-winners-and-losers#ixzz2TQ5Y3FNX

Joshuatree
15-05-2013, 09:35 PM
Thanks for you usual detailed facts ,Steve. Re PGC and NWH, have been watching both . cheers JT

Corporate
16-05-2013, 11:44 AM
Well I got 90,000 @ 11c along with a lot of director buying. Now at 14.5c

Joshuatree
16-05-2013, 12:36 PM
Good on you mate , im kicking myself for hesitating now:scared:

Corporate
16-05-2013, 02:45 PM
Just hit 16.5c - some big buying going on as well!

tosspot
16-05-2013, 02:56 PM
I got in at 11c as well. bought at 23.5 though aswell but was half the amount so overall fairly up

tosspot
21-05-2013, 11:36 AM
yea I chipped in, couldnt stand the lose bought at 23.5c and now again another chunk at 11c hoping for it to bounce back up to 16c so i got my money back
set out what I planned only sad part is that it flew past my 16c sell to 18 oh well cant have everything.

Joshuatree
21-05-2013, 01:35 PM
Management have bought re 8,852,000 shares since the update from 11c to re 16 c.!

Corporate
16-08-2013, 08:25 PM
The latest annual report announcements show the strength of this business. The cash flow is very good especially considering the $6m spent on restructuring. Debt and interest costs are going down.

Nice rise to 21c today.

Corporate
21-08-2013, 05:12 PM
Coffey still going strong. One of the directors topped up .... infact increased his holding by 50%. That is some confidence.

Joshuatree
21-08-2013, 07:28 PM
If we are patient we will make money out of COF, just murder the lil Shorty Span of Attention on one shoulder, and wait.

Sauce
21-08-2013, 08:43 PM
just murder the lil Shorty Span of Attention on one shoulder, and wait.

Lol well said - be glad the market in aggregate doesn't (or can't is more to the point) think like that or opportunities wouldn't exist.

Corporate
20-09-2013, 07:30 PM
I wonder if they have the same confidence now that the Abbott Govt has decimated the international aid budget and canned the Aid Agencies?

Agreed - not good for Coffey. I excited a little while ago when it got overheated.

steve fleming
21-09-2013, 07:08 PM
I see that Packer's hedge fund has just gone substantial....

Joshuatree
11-08-2014, 10:00 AM
FY out. On a quick skim thru;back in profit, debt dropping; looks like up to me(at last):)

Joshuatree
15-10-2015, 11:55 AM
Takeover offer @ 42c; last price 18.5c. Its been worth sitting on this one.

Joshuatree
15-10-2015, 12:03 PM
Opened at 39c up 110%;:).Will a higher bid come?Maybe.

percy
15-10-2015, 12:27 PM
Just love the sharemarket.
Was looking at OIC [nz] the other day and thought thank goodness I sold.Then looked at COF, and thought the same.!!Wrong again!!
Well done to those who held!!!.

h2so4
15-10-2015, 03:57 PM
Its not really a sensible* investment strategy to buy up broken companies whose revenues are falling faster than a skydiver without a parachute, and then hope that some other equally broken company will buy them out in order to bolster their own numbers. There will be a lot of M&A activity at the bottom of the cycle (I guess we are almost there if its started) but picking the takeover targets from the bankruptcies will not be an easy task. You might make 50% gain on one company only to lose 100% on the next. For every Coffey there is a Forge.

*unless you are a specialist in this area and have vastly superior stock picking skills to the average retail investor.

Hah? Book value is 48c per share.
Could well be at the bottom for mining companies.

Joshuatree
18-01-2016, 11:07 AM
Takeover offer @ 42c; last price 18.5c. Its been worth sitting on this one.

Its a done deal with Tetra reaching 90% and compulsory acquisition of the rest .