TEL (Telecom NZ Ltd)

[Major von Tempsky]

Hmmm, finished at 242 which is above 238.

Given that well over half of TEL's shareholders are overseas and given to using it as a currency play in the NZ $....they also have easy access to shorting mechanisms, not just borrowing TEL shares and paying them back later. We may see some significant shareholder notices from overseas funds etc in the next day or two.

Now is a test of NZ shareholders mettle and why they invest. For those who invest long term for dividends (which keeps the IRD out the picture :-)) and who also like me have lots of imputation credits accumulated in an investment company, its a clear path. For those who do momentum/charting investing following the herd and/or investing solely or mostly for capital gain it must be a time of panic and a very worrisome time :-). A number of these people have already split and sacrificed the 11cps 75% imputed and run. Perhaps they bought 5,000 at $2 like me so that they have saved rather more of their profit than the 11cps they lost. However a warning to them: IRD could be breathing rather more closely on their tails than they imagine and they will be called in for the dreaded interview followed by an audit followed by penal tax and penal tax on penal tax and interest. Or maybe just a notice from IRD out of the blue 9 months or so after the event disclosing huge amounts of penal tax and interest assessed before they even knew anything was afoot heh heh heh.

Given that the TEL turnover was $130.9 mill, the turnover in Chorus was $17.2 mill, and in Fletcher $11.3 mill (and the remaining share turnovers weren't worth talking about) then the amount of switching was pretty limited. It was more a case of desperate panic, shorting and scurrying back overseas as fast as their little legs could carry them.

Its also worth comparing TEL to Fletcher which the investment community for some strange reason always values at richer multiples than TEL.
None of the Fletcher businesses is going well, Bunting is munting Placemakers and is about to move into the trade sector, both the Australian and NZ economies are a bad environment for building and building materials , The Chch rebuild keeps getting delayed and delayed and strung out and strung out and Fletchers is losing more and more of its reputation with Cantabrians in association with EQC (I personally know of 2 really bad cases) and yet for some strange reason there is this serendipity feeling about Fletchers which doesn't have any factual basis.
Look at the comparative ratios as in last Sunday's SST - Fletcher P/E 23.8; TEL P/E 4.2. Fletcher gross dividend yield 6.28%; TEL gross dividend yield 10.20%.
And we hear that the FBU earnings per share are less than the dividend per share.

[BIRMANBOY]

I get the snore but whats the other stuff????
...sniff....sniff....gnarl.....gggnnnnnaaaarrrrrrr lllll......woof.....woof.......gnarl.....sniffle.. .......snif....whwhwhwh.....snore.....

[troyvdh]

....dear birm....I will put it this way..walk down any road in NZ....ask the folk ...which entity/comapny they feel that has royally screwed them for more than 1 decade......$2.50 per min to OZ....landline calls to cell $1.40.....Therasa ..gattunig(..5 MILLION DOLLARS a year) telling the NZ Cabinet that should TEL succomb to any mkt pressures then the share price will fall and many substantial retirement funds would loose money....NZ public in the dark....Reynolds got $7 MILLION ....TEL has been taking the piss out of the NZ public ...its probably been close to being abusive.....for so many years .......I have no problem in folk making a dollar....but Im sure that a fair few folk feel that TEL.... has taken the piss....for years....

[BIRMANBOY]

Oh ok now I get it...just another member of the downtrodden masses whingeing on about having your rights curtailed by capitalist oppressors.
....dear birm....I will put it this way..walk down any road in NZ....ask the folk ...which entity/comapny they feel that has royally screwed them for more than 1 decade......$2.50 per min to OZ....landline calls to cell $1.40.....Therasa ..gattunig(..5 MILLION DOLLARS a year) telling the NZ Cabinet that should TEL succomb to any mkt pressures then the share price will fall and many substantial retirement funds would loose money....NZ public in the dark....Reynolds got $7 MILLION ....TEL has been taking the piss out of the NZ public ...its probably been close to being abusive.....for so many years .......I have no problem in folk making a dollar....but Im sure that a fair few folk feel that TEL.... has taken the piss....for years....

[troyvdh]

...I bet you are young....

...your comments ....thats ok....sort off....Im with 2 degrees.....by my calculations ..its nye on half what i have been used to paying....I do find it weird that you made the above statement....do you not favour and relish competition in a capitalst society....may I suggest you read some more...no offence ..cheers...

[sharer]

prrrrrr prrrrrr prrrrrr prrrrrr so there.

i quite like MvT's comment yesterday as well :)

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes, well whats the point really...I should know better. On a brighter note I picked up another 5000 shares today @2.42 which I am hoping will "immediately" force the price back up to 2.70 as opposed to the other alternate option of prefacing a further decline to 2.10:scared:
prrrrrr prrrrrr prrrrrr prrrrrr so there.

i quite like MvT's comment yesterday as well :)

[Major von Tempsky]

If they priced FBU Fletcher on the same basis as TEL, then on a gross dividend yield basis the FBU price would be about $4 (its currently about $6.60) and on a P/E basis the FBU price would be about $1.10 and yet the FBU prospects are not good and its earnings per share are lower than its dividend per share!

Or to use the corollary, if by some weird mental gyration you regard the FBU pricing ratios as "normal" for the NZ market, (and in defiance of gravity FBU is going up today),
then you would have to say TEL should be $3.99 (lets call it $4 eh ;-) on a gross dividend yield basis and $14.52 on a P/E basis.
Lets hope for an outbreak of sanity and normal pricing on the NZ market...

[winner69]

Running someone over in a road rage attack is not the behaviour of a guru.....

Think his community service be analysts of TEL until he gets it right ......of course

Then again we shouldn't ridicule the guru guy. The herald today

Hallwright's employer, Forsyth Barr, felt he had brought the company into disrepute as a result of media coverage of the trial, and the judge criticised the media's "prurient" interest in the case as "vulgar in the extreme".

The media had "seized upon and reported for no reason other than a desire to take an unhealthy degree of glee" from someone of Hallwright's esteem being on trial in a criminal court. "The Germans have a word for it: schadenfreude."

Associate Professor Bill Hodge of the University of Auckland law faculty said he had no sympathy for Hallwright over the publicity surrounding the case.

"I don't think the judge is on target when he criticises the media for featuring the person's position in society or profession ... I suspect someone who wasn't a merchant banker wouldn't have quite got the same consideration."

[blockhead]

And in case, like me you missed the day at school when German was being dispensed :

[German : Schaden, damage (from Middle High German schade, from Old High German scado) + Freude, joy (from Middle High German vreude, from Old High German frewida, from fr, happy).]

[Major von Tempsky]

Can a guru be a criminal...can a criminal be a guru...

Isn't this a sad character trait - he's a criminal because he exercised bad judgment and he's a laughingstock cos of his bad share analysis/judgment.....

[Silverlight]

A 37% increase in profit from a low base (or poor year) is nothing to crow about.

First NZ price target $2.20, Jp Morgan $2.25, Craigs $2.33. RBS is actually the lowest at $2.05. Telecom is trading over a 15 P/E, even Telstra is only on 13 P/E, the last time Telecom traded on this multiple (ex Chrous) was in March 1999... hmmm.

Just curious where you think the significant earnings growth that will drive this multiple is coming from? Increase in mobile data revenue, broadband?

Telecom has more than doubled from $1.30 (ex-chorus), and the current business model does not contain a catalyst to drive earnings growth that the market seems to be pricing in, none that I can see.

Disc: non-holder from $2.70.

So result showed fixed line revenues continue to decline as you would expect, mobile revenues are flat, broadband revenues up slightly.

Telecom forecast next years revenues will be flat to single digit % declines! Extending the buyback timetable i.e. Telecom don't want to buy back at that the moment as they think the stock is overvalued. Still looks like there will be further to fall in the next few months, happy to wait for around $2.00/$2.15 (XD/ CD) before I get back in.

[Zaphod]

I suspect that a restructure will be the first order of the day in this new Moutter-led world, especially for Gen-i. IMO that division has unfortunately been turned into a dogs breakfast through many iterations of the operational split and I do wonder whether doing business with them will become even more difficult.

[Major von Tempsky]

I suspect some of you fellows are terribly spoilt.
With just about all the world suffering from recessions, weak anaemic and slowing growth, debt crises,and exporting crises here is NZ plodding along with weak anaemic growth and you are leaping up and down demanding booming growth when not even Australia, India or China have that now.

Similarly on the NZX we have TEL flatlining with absolutely brilliant gross dividend yield and a P/E of 4.3 and yet TEL is going for a song and priced much lower than FBU!

I'd hate to be around you if the going got tough which is when traditionally the tough get going....but I can't see any of you toughing it out.

[JMKC]

I suspect some of you fellows are terribly spoilt.
With just about all the world suffering from recessions, weak anaemic and slowing growth, debt crises,and exporting crises here is NZ plodding along with weak anaemic growth and you are leaping up and down demanding booming growth when not even Australia, India or China have that now.

Similarly on the NZX we have TEL flatlining with absolutely brilliant gross dividend yield and a P/E of 4.3 and yet TEL is going for a song and priced much lower than FBU!

I'd hate to be around you if the going got tough which is when traditionally the tough get going....but I can't see any of you toughing it out.

a P/E of 4.3? It is trading on a P/E of 14x. And the gross yield you talk of will go down sharply even with the stock price coming off given the target payout ratio x rebased earnings will obviously be lower.

You cannot compare TEL to FBU in a P/E sense. FBU is a cyclical building materials company whereas TEL is a low growth consumer business with margins that are getting squeezed. Will you start comparing DIL to TEL soon? Or maybe XRO?

[Major von Tempsky]

Well JKMC, I quoted my source - Sunday Star Times Aug 26 2012 page D10, go and argue with them.
And when you have finished arguing with them you can go and argue with today's Press 31/08/2012 page B7 which gives TEL's P/E as 4.5. QED - quod erat demonstrandum if you ever did Latin.

You can compare any company with another company on a P/E basis, its a common denominator particularly in a break-up situation which is what our infamous guru sharebroker Hallwright seems to work on.
And if we are chucking company insults and epithets around - think cyclical building materials (and building company which you missed out) which most overseas investors would run a mile from particularly in the current situation. FBU's margins are also being squeezed, and not just its margins but its sales, by Bunnings etc. FBU is also a low growth company, sure you can borrow some more money and buy another Crane at the cost of overextending yourself and being unable to pay the interest if that's defined as growth. And as I noted before FBU's earning per share are lower than its dividend per share.

DIL? its practically a hobby company, how many DIL could you buy without significantly moving the price? 51,000 DIL shares traded yesterday ha! ha! ha!
XRO? not that much bigger, I was considering using it for my investment company but its too clumsy for that, its more suited to selling hamburgers or filing cabinets....

Dear Silverlight, I note that the maximum price paid by TEL in the buyback was 2.49 on 19/06/2012 - could it be, may it just be....on the evidence of recent trading that 2.49 is in danger of being reached without a buyback.

Gosh, you fellows really are scraping the barrel in your absolute desperation to attack TEL - what load of superficially convincing cods are you going to come up with next? I prefer to look at the scoreboard, look at the scoreboard!

[fish]

Well JKMC, I quoted my source - Sunday Star Times Aug 26 2012 page D10, go and argue with them.
And when you have finished arguing with them you can go and argue with today's Press 31/08/2012 page B7 which gives TEL's P/E as 4.5. QED - quod erat demonstrandum if you ever did Latin.

You can compare any company with another company on a P/E basis, its a common denominator particularly in a break-up situation which is what our infamous guru sharebroker Hallwright seems to work on.
And if we are chucking company insults and epithets around - think cyclical building materials (and building company which you missed out) which most overseas investors would run a mile from particularly in the current situation. FBU's margins are also being squeezed, and not just its margins but its sales, by Bunnings etc. FBU is also a low growth company, sure you can borrow some more money and buy another Crane at the cost of overextending yourself and being unable to pay the interest if that's defined as growth. And as I noted before FBU's earning per share are lower than its dividend per share.

DIL? its practically a hobby company, how many DIL could you buy without significantly moving the price? 51,000 DIL shares traded yesterday ha! ha! ha!
XRO? not that much bigger, I was considering using it for my investment company but its too clumsy for that, its more suited to selling hamburgers or filing cabinets....

Dear Silverlight, I note that the maximum price paid by TEL in the buyback was 2.49 on 19/06/2012 - could it be, may it just be....on the evidence of recent trading that 2.49 is in danger of being reached without a buyback.

Gosh, you fellows really are scraping the barrel in your absolute desperation to attack TEL - what load of superficially convincing cods are you going to come up with next? I prefer to look at the scoreboard, look at the scoreboard!

I sold out of fbu several years ago as felt they were a real risk from recession and competition. My feelings remain the same .
Have taken the oppurtunity of this weeks dip in sp to increase my holdings in tel.
As a margin trader as long as dividends are substantially more than interests rates i remain profitable hence holding tel and nzo and cen . Also predicting we will get inflation back-its a standard ploy of governments to reduce the value of debt-so fixed income term deposits lose value and stocks such as telecom and cen become a lot more valuable

[Major von Tempsky]

Here's an interesting thought for TEL holders.....since the TEL result there has been huge turnover but no SSH of large holders selling out, or at least not yet.

Does this mean that large professional investors have taken the opportunity to mop up all the small emotional holders panicked by some strange media comments at a very good price?

[troyvdh]

gggrrrhhhh....snifff,,,snort....$30 million dollar belly ......shuffle...vomit.....vomit again.....shuffle.....snort...fart.....snooze..... .vomit again and again and again.....almost dry wretching........wish i was dead.....

[duncan macgregor]

gggrrrhhhh....snifff,,,snort....$30 million dollar belly ......shuffle...vomit.....vomit again.....shuffle.....snort...fart.....snooze..... .vomit again and again and again.....almost dry wretching........wish i was dead..... I share your feelings about TEL. Who cares what the PE ratio is, look at the downtrend in SP over the last ten years. look at the millions each year paid to the top dog screwing the company during that great downtrend. I think Renolds ended up with 30 million over his short time at the top.
Dont like the company full stop. I think straight out greed is the ruination of any company or indeed system so I expect this company will continue on its merry way until its just a bad memory.
Macdunk

[Major von Tempsky]

Jeez, and I thought this thread was for investors :-0

What's happened McDunk? Off-Market Discussions thread got too hot for you? Don't know how to start a new thread there?

Throw him off Moderators, he's wasting our time. I recall when TEL was down about 2.15 at the start of last year, before the bonus issue of CNU the same McDunk was telling anyone who would listen to him (anyone did?) that TEL was a bad investment and everyone should sell! What a mistakea to makea!
I notice he doesn't participate in the share picks competition - if he did he would be right down the BOTTOM!
I christen thee - not McDunk - but McDunce!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Major von Tempsky you dislike anybody that does not agree with you. He has made several good calls that were not agreed with.

[BIRMANBOY]

Possum the cat...very PC post..so its just a misquoted avatar name.? With support like that he may well have wished for other words than...*** He has made several good calls that were not agreed with.*** SO lets see...4252 posts and only several good calls??? Ouch.. Not wanting to put words in the MVT Mouth but I'm sure he would say that he disagrees with what the other Dunkin fellow said but its pure speculation on the feline end to say he dislikes him!! Thats just being catty. MVT is right though...emotional tirades only show the depth of the individuals disatisfaction as opposed to any actual facts. The message is being drowned out by a constant flow of tears.
Major von Tempsky you dislike anybody that does not agree with you. He has made several good calls that were not agreed with.

[winner69]

McDunk says - I think straight out greed is the ruination of any company or indeed system so I expect this company will continue on its merry way until its just a bad memory. This is a good constructive bit of fundamnetal analysis and based on fact (it has happened any times).

Birmanboy says great yield, better than the banks and bonds, hedge against low interest rates. All good and valid observations

So both Birmanboy and McDunk make valid and constructive comments on TEL

..... and an observation ......Birmanboy seems to throw the emotional mud just as much as troy and mcdunk so his last post seems like a bit of who is calling the kettle black or whatever the phrase is ..... birman your message is being drowned out by a constant flow of tears

[POSSUM THE CAT]

BIRMANBOY I was being very polite with that comment. As I was not prepared to do all the research required on both. But I will back McDuncks posts more than I would MVT's As far as the competition entry. If you put in an investment portfolio rather than a speculative one you get very nasty comments, even to the stage that they say you should be barred from sharetrader. I speak from experience.

[duncan macgregor]

WINNER69, One little point that you missed out in your sums is the rise and fall in the dollar. TEL have had a lot of overseas investors buying in to a rising dollar then selling out at the top. I think other than that anyone caught holding this arrogant dog deserves very little sympathy. I think big changes at the top will come to late to save TEL which will continue to downtrend. macdunk Thats what I wrote six years ago on page two of this thread. The share price was nearly double what it is today so have another little brain storm MVT and tell us all how wrong I am. Since that time Renolds has creamed 30 million in salary and perks.
I presume the shareholders approve of being ripped off or why hold the shares. Macdunk

[BIRMANBOY]

PC I'm so sorry your fur has been rumpled by unkind comments. My guess is that they were good natured ribbing rather than real "nasty comments". However if you put yourself out there by contributing to the forum I suppose its "open season" so to speak. However one hopes that people will make some effort to stay on point and be relevant and remove comments that are driven by some unknown personal loss. Those comments by DUNC that TEL ****"is paid to the top dog screwing the company during that great downtrend." and the other "vomit adjectives" by TTROYVDH are not really constructive are they? Just individuals expressing their ill feeling. Which, by the way is fine...but live by the sword and die by the sword. If you can give then you should be happy to receive...right?
BIRMANBOY I was being very polite with that comment. As I was not prepared to do all the research required on both. But I will back McDuncks posts more than I would MVT's As far as the competition entry. If you put in an investment portfolio rather than a speculative one you get very nasty comments, even to the stage that they say you should be barred from sharetrader. I speak from experience.

[BIRMANBOY]

SO your beef appears to be (1) that the share price has dropped and (2) The CEO has "ripped off" the company (and presumably you)(and the public).
Many share prices have dropped (and risen)...where does it say "we hereby guarantee that the SP will always rise..so help me God".. If you buy too high and you lose its the market to blame in almost all cases. I have some shares that in hindsight I paid too much for ...should I blame the CEO and the company? Hardly reasonable but I can understand it could make you feel better. Secondly you have obviously not noticed that CEO and big wigs in huge multi billion dollar corporations ALL command huge pay packets. Are they worth it? Probably not but thats the way it works so I suppose we all have to either get over it or accept it. Move on..you"ll feel better.
Thats what I wrote six years ago on page two of this thread. The share price was nearly double what it is today so have another little brain storm MVT and tell us all how wrong I am. Since that time Renolds has creamed 30 million in salary and perks.
I presume the shareholders approve of being ripped off or why hold the shares. Macdunk

[winner69]

Deciphering the last few posts

McDunk .....sees greed eventually brings down companies and has concerns that if the world doesn't like NZ anymore TEL share price will inevitability be lower than it is today .....obviously in McDunks eyes the upsides not as good as the potential downside risk. Astute well founded thinking and good strategy

Birman / MVT more than pleased with the current yield .....the yield is high because the market ( not just McDunk) perceive some significant risks ahead and demand the premium which Birman is happy to take. Again considered thinking and punters taking a risk they are happy taking.

Everyman to his own opinion .......no need for anymore flood of tears from you Birmanboy?

[duncan macgregor]

Investing is all about protecting your capital which is first priority, followed by capital gain, either by way of dividends, or by increase in share price. TEL over the years has lost in the first instance with the Sp dropping in a continual long term downtrend. Dividends in my opinion dont make make the loss of initial capital and opportunity other than a short term in and out timing the market. The past is gone its the future that counts. TEL is in a worse market position than it ever was in, so therefore in my opinion the downside is greater than it ever was. To much competition for starters which it never had to face in the past. Macdunk

[h2so4]

Deciphering the last few posts

McDunk .....sees greed eventually brings down companies and has concerns that if the world doesn't like NZ anymore TEL share price will inevitability be lower than it is today .....obviously in McDunks eyes the upsides not as good as the potential downside risk. Astute well founded thinking and good strategy

Birman / MVT more than pleased with the current yield .....the yield is high because the market ( not just McDunk) perceive some significant risks ahead and demand the premium which Birman is happy to take. Again considered thinking and punters taking a risk they are happy taking.

Everyman to his own opinion .......no need for anymore flood of tears from you Birmanboy?

Ha!
Yeah but I'm right, and here's the proof......
I thought they were just getting into it winner.


'

[macduffy]

As an aside, has anyone done the calculation to compare TEL's SP today with that of "six years ago", taking account of the pro-rata cancellation and return of capital - now, when was that? - and the split of CNU from the "old" company?

[BIRMANBOY]

Winner read the posts a bit more carefully...not my tears...I'm a happy puss and my tear ducts are as dry as the Sahara in a drought year. I was referring to your buddies Dunc and Donk (sorry I like rhymes). They are the ones who are crying into their spilt milk about TEL ripping off the righteous. I aint righteous but I do like my TEL dividends and a dropping SP is like a good shot of catnip to me...always buy in the dips and yes I do the unthinkable and (bless me father for I have sinned) average out my high buying by buying as it goes down. The outcome is a dividend rich portfolio with a cap gain on all but 2 (out of 16 positions). Now ""THATS ASTUTE well founded thinking and good strategy"" to me. Of course to someone else I may be the AR**HO** incarnate...LOL.
Deciphering the last few posts

McDunk .....sees greed eventually brings down companies and has concerns that if the world doesn't like NZ anymore TEL share price will inevitability be lower than it is today .....obviously in McDunks eyes the upsides not as good as the potential downside risk. Astute well founded thinking and good strategy

Birman / MVT more than pleased with the current yield .....the yield is high because the market ( not just McDunk) perceive some significant risks ahead and demand the premium which Birman is happy to take. Again considered thinking and punters taking a risk they are happy taking.

Everyman to his own opinion .......no need for anymore flood of tears from you Birmanboy?

[BIRMANBOY]

Pardon!! Cant see any proof there....your invisible typing? Oh Ok I see you were expecting some proof from us? Dont need proof.."we're on a mission from God"...quote from the "Blues Brothers". Proof thats its a good buy for ever and ever?? yeh right! AT the moment (and for ever actually)..there is no such thing as PROOF in the Share market. All it is a bunch of people trading and trying their best to decipher the signals and information that is available. It comes down to belief and I dont have the time or inclination to lay out the many various things that have forged that belief. Proof is only visible when we cash the dividend checks and look at our investment amount and calculate that it is returning plus or minus 7-9% depending on your buy in costs.
Ha!
Yeah but I'm right, and here's the proof......
I thought they were just getting into it winner.


'

[BIRMANBOY]

So nice to see a measured post from you Macdunk...and here I was thinking you were a Troyvdh accolyte. Yes I concur that the SP has dropped over the years but this is going to happen to some Shares...Others may have gone up. This is why its so important to have a diversified portfolio. The ultimate guru, Buffet doesnt put all his eggs in the one basket. Even "growth" industries will have a few doggies so you gotta balance out the occasional bad buy. TEL 5 years ago was at 4.70 so if you held on as you say your capital has been halved less the ongoing dividends and CNU shares. If you had held and kept buying occasionally your average cost would have dropped considerably. It all comes down to your investing philosophy..Others would say get out after a while so you dont get completely wiped out. Its timing...I'll give you an example. APN has gone from $6 odd on a steadily dropping SP for 5 years and now stands at $0.38. Five years ago it may have been a good buy...you cant see forward...this is the problem and If I was a holder I would be spitting tacks but hopefully my losses would have been more than offset by other winners. You are right in saying its the future that counts however and TEL will be right up there plugging away, being innovative and trying to make a profit. If they pay big bucks to people who can make that happen ..good luck to them. However if in 5 years you prove to be right and TEL has halved again then you will have the satisfaction of knowing you made the right call. I dont have that luxury to look ahead so spread my risk out. Part of that risk is amortized by good dividends. I fully expect some of my investment decisions will look silly in 5 years.. so be it but by diversifying between bonds and diff shares I am pretty sure I will be better off than having stuck it in the bank.
Investing is all about protecting your capital which is first priority, followed by capital gain, either by way of dividends, or by increase in share price. TEL over the years has lost in the first instance with the Sp dropping in a continual long term downtrend. Dividends in my opinion dont make make the loss of initial capital and opportunity other than a short term in and out timing the market. The past is gone its the future that counts. TEL is in a worse market position than it ever was in, so therefore in my opinion the downside is greater than it ever was. To much competition for starters which it never had to face in the past. Macdunk

[winner69]

My sincerest apologies in misunderstanding you .... but you are doing a great job in winding up the likes of troy

You are doing very well with your investments and probably so is troy so at least let him and others have a view on TEL .... even if it is different from yours

[troyvdh]

....phweee....what a carry on....what amazes me is that so many folk cannot accept that TEL has been an absolute disgrace even ....embarrasment...do those folk who defend Tel ...have you ever hosted overseas guests...what do they say about our speed and price......Have folk travelled to Turkey,Nepal,India;Italy,Austria,....like I have often ....folk wear rags...and have cell phones....2 years ago I biked through Tanzania...mobile phones were everywhere........until I switched to 2 degrees i was with Vodahone...20 cents a text....yes you read that right.....20 cents a text....now with 2 degrees i pay $10 a week ....get 2500 txts a month and 220 mins phone and some megabite....its a funny thing about kiwis..8 guage wire mentality etc yet we allow ourselves to be totally screwed by TEL ..whose boss got what $30 million over 5 years...this debate is totally surreal.....bizarre....folk should travel more...troy...

[BIRMANBOY]

"folk should travel more...troy..."
Yes they should...and I'd like to encourage you to do a bit more..very soon...for a long time...where they dont have internet access.... MAn you walked into that one Troy. As my mentors (KAth and KIm) would say...Look at moi...look at moi...one word for you...tunnel vision...Troy..in tunnell...limited vision.....sorry ran out of full stops so have to stop here.
....phweee....what a carry on....what amazes me is that so many folk cannot accept that TEL has been an absolute disgrace even ....embarrasment...do those folk who defend Tel ...have you ever hosted overseas guests...what do they say about our speed and price......Have folk travelled to Turkey,Nepal,India;Italy,Austria,....like I have often ....folk wear rags...and have cell phones....2 years ago I biked through Tanzania...mobile phones were everywhere........until I switched to 2 degrees i was with Vodahone...20 cents a text....yes you read that right.....20 cents a text....now with 2 degrees i pay $10 a week ....get 2500 txts a month and 220 mins phone and some megabite....its a funny thing about kiwis..8 guage wire mentality etc yet we allow ourselves to be totally screwed by TEL ..whose boss got what $30 million over 5 years...this debate is totally surreal.....bizarre....folk should travel more...troy...

[h2so4]

Pardon!! Cant see any proof there....your invisible typing? Oh Ok I see you were expecting some proof from us? Dont need proof.."we're on a mission from God"...quote from the "Blues Brothers". Proof thats its a good buy for ever and ever?? yeh right! AT the moment (and for ever actually)..there is no such thing as PROOF in the Share market. All it is a bunch of people trading and trying their best to decipher the signals and information that is available. It comes down to belief and I dont have the time or inclination to lay out the many various things that have forged that belief. Proof is only visible when we cash the dividend checks and look at our investment amount and calculate that it is returning plus or minus 7-9% depending on your buy in costs.

A belief is just a thought you think often.
An investment philosophy based on belief is truly commendable.

[troyvdh]

....Now this thread is becoming something bordering on ridiculous...and i apologise for being a contributer....this will be my final contribution....dear birman..are you over the 20 years of age.cheers troy...I enjoy a lively debate but at the end of the day if I believe that if the opposing opinion is posted by folk who are ignorant/lacking in historical reality/...I really cant be bothered.
Please do not take this as an arrogant rebute...even if on the face of it it appears as one....cheers troy
Honestly I am not a grandiose person.

[BIRMANBOY]

Not to argue semantics with you but a belief is only as good as its owner. Some people believe that aliens are living among us so you might question the validity of that belief but you cannot question the authenticity or the genuineness however. My beliefs in regards the share market, are based on firstly observation of history of share from charts and other data, secondly how or where the company sits among its peers and finally what is it doing at the moment. So to say or infer that I have convinced myself through the power of positive thinking is incorrect. Investment philosophy and the basis for it is an interesting and varied subject. What do people base their investment on could be everything and anything. One thing I would say is that "your" or "my" system or philosophy is only as good as the components that forge it and the anaysis that goes with the information. At the end of the day its personal and I take comfort that I do "believe" mine works for me as opposed to anybody else. Investment needs to be measured periodically and tweeked if necessary so nothing is sacred and a "smart" or "commendable" as you put it, investor will keep eyes and mind open to changes.


A belief is just a thought you think often.
An investment philosophy based on belief is truly commendable.

[BIRMANBOY]

Oh no...dont go please...I enjoy sharpening my claws on you. Wellllllllll , wellll over 20 Troy..try over 60. I can assure you opposing opinion is not "ignorant" but is merely well ..opposing, and as I like to think flavoured with a bit of humour. Be bothered or not. Getting back to the matter at hand which is TEL. You obviously think its the son of Satan but I dont believe you have ever actually said why..other than you resent the large pay packet that they bestow on the Execs and going on about the costs of cell phones in Tanzania and hosting overseas guests??????? Heloooo whats that got to do with it. What is ridiculous is someone rubbishing a well performing Co, (in my opinion) without any real reason.
....Now this thread is becoming something bordering on ridiculous...and i apologise for being a contributer....this will be my final contribution....dear birman..are you over the 20 years of age.cheers troy...I enjoy a lively debate but at the end of the day if I believe that if the opposing opinion is posted by folk who are ignorant/lacking in historical reality/...I really cant be bothered.
Please do not take this as an arrogant rebute...even if on the face of it it appears as one....cheers troy
Honestly I am not a grandiose person.

[Hoop]

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Tuibillboardtelecom.png

[BIRMANBOY]

Well I did say in a previous post that some people may believe that aliens live among us...so now we have proof..I mean if you cant trust a Tui who can you trust? Heres another one for you....Drinking alcohol is completely safe...Yeh Right! However must admit most are quite funny and all "monoliths" need to have the mickey taken every so often.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Tuibillboardtelecom.png

[Major von Tempsky]

Look guys, the major point is that this thread is for investors in TEL or possibly for people with some financial knowledge who have something relevant to say, new facts to impart, about the financial performance of TEL. Neither McDunk, Troyvdh nor Possum the Cat are in that category and we should gratefully accept any offer by them to depart.

They are agents provocateurs, trolls, perverse and malicious stirrers.

Typically, left wing nutters have absolutely no financial knowledge and their portfolio, if any, is something like 100 FBU, 100 WDT (Wgtn Drive Technology), 100 NZ Windfarms.
They are like Sue Bradford (208 votes last general election) or John Minto (220 votes last election) buying a 100 shares in TEL so they can turn up to cause chaos at the TEL AGM because a NZ reporter used Telecom to interview Shahar Peer (the Israeli woman tennis player) - a fictional case but quite likely to happen, they just haven't thought of it yet.

[BIRMANBOY]

He's BACKKKKKK. Major von Terminator. Sort of agree but it can be entertaining to match wits...(or twits in some cases). Everyone has an opinion thats for sure.
Look guys, the major point is that this thread is for investors in TEL or possibly for people with some financial knowledge who have something relevant to say, new facts to impart, about the financial performance of TEL. Neither McDunk, Troyvdh nor Possum the Cat are in that category and we should gratefully accept any offer by them to depart.

[elZorro]

MVT: Typically, left wing nutters have absolutely no financial knowledge and their portfolio, if any, is something like 100 FBU, 100 WDT (Wgtn Drive Technology), 100 NZ Windfarms.


And if we did have a lot of cash kicking around, we wouldn't put it on TEL. That's too boring.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Major von Tempsky & others of his ilk that need to Pump the cr*p out of every share they own. And cannot stand anybody that posts something detrimental to the share they are pumping.

[duncan macgregor]

The TEL thread should be used as a discussion about the rights and wrongs of investing in this company. If you only want a view similar to your own or think that [like one pompous idiot here]that every body who disagrees is a left wing nutter then I suggest take a long term view of the past come up with the figures look at future prospects and make your own decision, based on facts. Attack the reasoning, not the person. Fifteen years ago TEL prospects were good, but bad management, and arrogance saw the SP downtrend to todays low price. I really cant see how anyone holding the shares long term can claim to be an economic wizard. Come out with the figures lets all see how clever it was holding long term, so that us lesser mortals who dare disagree can be put in their place. Macdunk

[BIRMANBOY]

What.. making money is boring?? Lets face it EZ If you had invested some money in TEL instead of following excitement and chasing instant riches in spec stocks you may well have some money available now.
And if we did have a lot of cash kicking around, we wouldn't put it on TEL. That's too boring.

[BIRMANBOY]

Unfair and untrue PC...you are being catty again. MVT doesnt pump that I have noticed ..he and others like to discuss whats happening but cant say they "pump" it. If you want to see some pumping look on the ASX at all the mineral and mining afficianados...Comes to mind is Shasta and his DGR. or JB and his his gold and silver. If you post an intelligent comment you'll get a responsible repost. However if someone posts an emotional tirade with no substance or rationale then they may get what it deserves..certain amount of disdain...and usually towards the post rather than the poster I might add.
Major von Tempsky & others of his ilk that need to Pump the cr*p out of every share they own. And cannot stand anybody that posts something detrimental to the share they are pumping.

[BIRMANBOY]

There is lots of relevance Turmeric...its like a good curry...sometimes the juiciest morsels are hidden to the casual observer. Its only when you explore the to and fro over a period of time that a picture emerges. MVT is a very experienced investor with a good sized portfolio i would imagine and he quite rightly gets a bit peeved when posters go the rubbish route. Why should he hold back if he feels so inclined. Its a forum...exchange of ideas is good and sometimes some ideas are deserving of a good thumping.
Wow! I'm relatively new here and thought I'd take a peek at some of the talk re TEL and appear to have walked into something which reminds me a bit of the online chat that goes on when Pakistan take on India in cricket! Not much here of relevance to shareholders or potential ones huh!!

I don't know who any of you are, nor do I know the history of the arguments you guys are having - but for what it's worth (as an impartial observer), MVT I don't feel you are doing yourself any favours with the silly things you said in your last post ;) If you are being lured into such dialgue by equally as ridiculas posts from those you are arguing with then maybe just ignore them and focus on posting about TEL, it seems as though you could contribute a wealth of quality information if you were to cut out all the rubbish! Just my opinion though, take it with a grain of salt!

Disc : Hold TEL since late 2009 AND probably considered a marginal left wing nutter ;)

[macduffy]

belgy, I think we're kidding ourselves if we think this forum has much influence on the TEL SP, short term or otherwise.

Tumeric has a point - far too much bickering and point scoring on the TEL thread, IMO.

:mellow:

[elZorro]

What.. making money is boring?? Lets face it EZ If you had invested some money in TEL instead of following excitement and chasing instant riches in spec stocks you may well have some money available now.

You're like a broken record Birmanboy, just keep watching..:)

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Sparky the Clown When I am thinking of buying shares In especially in Australian listed companies I take a quick look at Hot Copper to see which they are touting it. To see if a lot of its movement is in responce to comments their either positive or negative. Also if it is being done by one of their senior rampers.

[BIRMANBOY]

I am a boring old fart...I know...i will enjoy your "big score" vicariously ...just dont wait too long..we'll both be dead at your current rate.;)
You're like a broken record Birmanboy, just keep watching..:)

[Major von Tempsky]

Especially for dear Silverlight who posted on 31 August 2012 "i.e. Telecom don't want to buy back at that the moment as they think the stock is overvalued."

Well dear S, TEL have posted a notice today that they bought 200,000 TEL yesterday at $2.43....

[Silverlight]

Especially for dear Silverlight who posted on 31 August 2012 "i.e. Telecom don't want to buy back at that the moment as they think the stock is overvalued."

Well dear S, TEL have posted a notice today that they bought 200,000 TEL yesterday at $2.43....

When Telecom announced the price was circa $2.80+.

Indulge me, why do you think they increased the buyback timetable without increasing the amount subject to the buyback?

[Major von Tempsky]

Doesn't really matter - I have other more interesting and more germane matters to cogitate, there's enough to continue on and off until new CEO Simon Moutter publishes his paper early next year.
And in the meantime I have a huge dividend on Oct 5 to plan what to do with :-). If you want to do some destructive speculation FBU is a far easier target....

There's the Chorus paper coming out about Sept 17 and the determination about a month later.
And if ComCom's new marching orders include encouraging technological innovation then they won't want to make copper prices too cheap vis à vis UFB....

[Silverlight]

in the meantime I have a huge dividend on Oct 5 to plan what to do with :-).

Lol, would have been 3 times as big if you had sold at 2.80 :-)

[Major von Tempsky]

There are several obvious flaws with approaches like that Silverlight.

It presupposes a perfect foreknowledge of movements and timings which no-one here should really kid themselves that they have. Especially those dabbling in the black arts of "technical" analysis i.e. charting.

That approach also runs the danger of having oneself declared a trader by IRD, and/or, even worse, being audited by IRD.

I'm a long term value investor and I spend or re-invest the dividends and leave the long term capital fluctuations for the long term and I build up the imputation credits balance in my investment company.

I also have a very good memory for spectacular assertions likely to look foolish in the future as with McDunce's (Duncan McGregor the man who's never opened an economics textbook in his life) from early last year so I look forward to quoting back yours against you in a year or two's time as with McDunce.

[craic]

Silverlight, you really need to check your facts. The announcement was made on 27 February 2012 about the buyback. In that month the shareprice of TEL varied between 110cps and 115 cps - not 280cps as you say. The only time in recent years that TEL has reached 280 was a very brief spike a fe weeks ago. Where did you get the idea that they "increased the buyback table"? Go back and read the notices.
For those who may have missed the TEL dividend announcement, the cut-off date is 13 Sept. and the payout date is 5 October. The div. is 11cps and is 75% inputted.

[Silverlight]

Silverlight, you really need to check your facts. The announcement was made on 27 February 2012 about the buyback. In that month the shareprice of TEL varied between 110cps and 115 cps - not 280cps as you say. The only time in recent years that TEL has reached 280 was a very brief spike a fe weeks ago. Where did you get the idea that they "increased the buyback table"? Go back and read the notices.
For those who may have missed the TEL dividend announcement, the cut-off date is 13 Sept. and the payout date is 5 October. The div. is 11cps and is 75% inputted.

Telecom Close price 21 August $2.805, 22 August $2.775, 23 August $2.755.


Telecom's on-market buy-back to return up to $300m of capital during the calendar year has returned $169m to date. Management will continue to adopt a conservative approach and may elect to complete the buyback, of up to $300m, over a longer period of time if required.

My original view still stands, Telecom believed that at $2.80 their share price was overvalued.

[JMKC]

Telecom Close price 21 August $2.805, 22 August $2.775, 23 August $2.755.



My original view still stands, Telecom believed that at $2.80 their share price was overvalued.

That is 100% correct. Some people need to read between the lines not just believe the rhetoric.

[Hoop]

.......... The announcement was made on 27 February 2012 about the buyback. In that month the shareprice of TEL varied between 110cps and 115 cps - not 280cps as you say.............

Hi Craic
Did you mean 210 and 215cps....instead of your written 110 and 115cps.....typist slip???

[craic]

I was fencing at the time and that gives thick thumbs.I also got a HT wire between the eyes and that caused spectacular blood letting but no damage of any account. Scratched my brain and causedme to think that those TEL holders who scored a one-for-five CNU bonus last year are actually advanced by roughly 70 cps on the tel price so their holding is worth about 310cps as of todays price. I bought a new car with mine but then I will be 75 next month and money is not that important to me.

[Major von Tempsky]

Well done Craic, sorry about the accident.

As a reward it could be a good day today (McDunce et al will be grinding their teeth in envy and despair).

Have a look at Bloomberg, Dow Jones up 1.62% or so and other indexes. Apparently the ECB has come up with something good although I haven't read the details yet.
Gold up over $1,700, that's good for the NZ gold industry, oil down - what more could you ask? :-)

[Major von Tempsky]

At last the smoking gun! Or rather one of a pair of guns, the other one is yet to show itself (the overeas one).
I refer to today's article "Making long and short transparent a tall order" by "Chalkie" (Tim Hunter) in today's Press page A12.

It seems that the NZX inadvertently let slip that it had "lent" $1 billion dollars of NZ share securities in the last half year for speculators to speculate against NZ shares. Unlike Tim Hunter's musing my betting would be that most of these would be TEL shares simply because TEL has far and away the largest turnover of any NZ share - usually about 3 times FBU.

Question 1: Is this a desirable activity for the NZX to dabble in? You'll recall that in the Global Financial Crisis authorities everywhere banned short selling, some of them permanently. Why should the NZX be promoting instability and lower NZ share prices? Surely that cuts right against its raison d'être?

Question 2: If NZX is doing this shouldn't there be continuous disclosure? To the media every day for a start?

Question 3: If the NZX is going to do this shouldn't it be available to everyone? All shareholders in NZX? All NZ shareholders? All members of the NZ public?

Question 4: Shouldn't the Reserve Bank and NZ Treasury have policies and publically expressed views on this disturbing practice?

[peat]

its done through the Smartshares subsidiary I would imagine as the T's &C's of those ETF's allow it. So its not the NZX as such doing it.
Its a perfectly legitimate activity, and acts to increase liquidity.
And it increases revenue for long term holders as they get paid to loan their shares out. Anyone can do it I expect.
The RBNZ has shorted the market for NZD so they would appear to have no specific moral repugnance to the action.

[macduffy]

So we're back to the perennial question of whether or not short selling is desirable/proper/moral. This time with a new twist, it seems.

I doubt whether there is any greater need for disclosure of short positions than there is for longs. My own hangup has been a suspicion that some holdings may be lent without the knowledge or approval of the beneficial owners, for the benefit of the registered/nominee holder. Hard to prove, I guess, and those in a position to find out aren't likely to be trying!

[Major von Tempsky]

Up 3.5cps today - what a painful experience for all the professional shorters and speculators who have been so busy renting TEL shares via NZX....heh heh heh.

[winner69]

OMG one Jason Krupp a journalist at the Sunday Star Times has committed journalistic suicide today ......the gall of writing about TEL with a chart showing the TEL share price headed WHO LET THE DOGS OUT

Jason my boy - career limiting stuff

[Hoop]

Hmmm I wonder if Jason Krupp's article has been modified (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/7873212/Tech-telco-and-property-out-of-yield-rally)
Can't seem to find on-line the version which has the chart ... Winner?

[winner69]

Hmmm I wonder if Jason Krupp's article has been modified (http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/latest-edition/7873212/Tech-telco-and-property-out-of-yield-rally)
Can't seem to find on-line the version which has the chart ... Winner?

Same article but the real paper version has the chart with TEL v NZX and the aforementioned headline

If you want the pictures you need to buy the paper version .... more in the paper version as well and these days you can point your phone at a picture and even more stuff comes up .... the power of QR codes and all that these days

[craic]

Have a look at the tel chart for the year and wonder at Krupps selective use of the available information. Why is it that some so called experts ignore the realities for a good story. A few days ago it was reported that telecom paid 12.5% return. I have just arrived home in a car that I bought nearly a year ago with the CNU shares that TEL gave me and the TEL price is still higher than it was before that?




i bbought

[Hoop]

Have a look at the tel chart for the year and wonder at Krupps selective use of the available information. Why is it that some so called experts ignore the realities for a good story. A few days ago it was reported that telecom paid 12.5% return. I have just arrived home in a car that I bought nearly a year ago with the CNU shares that TEL gave me and the TEL price is still higher than it was before that?
i bbought

So has Mr Trendy
The fictitious Mr Trendy would've pooed pooed Mr Krupp as well.

Mr Trendy has made sh1t loads of money since TEL entered A Bull market Cycle using buy and sell arrows on the chart below....he got clobbered with the sudden crash back in late August (selling out well below the sell signal price) and resisting the temption to re-enter on the dead cat bounce event, otherwise he would've had even more money... He also negotiated around the chart anomalies of the company split and has picked up CNU to boot.

Mr Trendy bought back into TEL 2 weeks ago (say for example about 2.38) after the market failed to break down below the 2.32 support on the 10th October.... his present strategy is outlined on his doodle chart (blue text box).
His sell trigger button finger will be hovering around these key price points,,,, the break under 2.32,,,,(exit for small loss) ,,,,,possible fail at 2.53 ,,,,,and possible fail at 2.68

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Tel26102012.png

[Hoop]

How much tax do you have to pay on that level of trading and when do you have to pay it?

Hi David

The rate of tax you pay depends on the amount you earn (mostly realise). This varies a lot year by year...Provisional tax hurts in a down year...Provisional tax dates can be found online....If you have a tax agent (I do) the final dates can be all different.

The best thing I ever did was convert from a infrequent trading long term investor (hobby.. non tax payer:)) to that what I do now....Have been by far much more successful...I treat it like a business, I claim related expenses, I put in long hours and I am the owner/operator:).

Non Tax payable investing (the majority??) leaves you with a basic restricted choice...that of long term investing....

[Hoop]

Thanks for that:)! Is it difficult/ much involved to register with IRD as a share trader? I guess filling a return is reasonably straight forward since you'll have all sale and purchase contracts. But what about holdings you may have held for some years before you sell them. Can you still claim these as investments (tax free) rather than trades. or does everything get treated as a trade once you hold that status.

David give Shasta a PM and ask him nicely ;) He'd be the person who would be best to answer these tax questions regarding share investments.
I leave most of my more complicated stuff to my Tax Agent to sort out.

[Hoop]

This month sees a small part of of America being dragged into the future by Google .....nobody knows the opportunities yet but Google's ambition is focused on the Web downloads file swapping and storage and it's web TV.
The internet....it was invented in USA but overseas has dominated its progress from dial up to broadband and now FIBRE....Google is trying to change that.

OH..thats right FIBRE here in NZ we are in the process of getting access to that...WOW!!! soon we will have speeds of 30MB/sec at a fractionally more of a price than broadband and if you want it at 100MB/sec it's will be more expensive...oh yeah data caps..oh well. ....we are getting faster world beating stuff..right???....wrong!!!!

Google Fibre rolls out its new fibre network in Kansas City this Month See the Google Fibre launch in Kansas City Video (58min) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uZVqPuq81c&feature=relmfu) USA has been lagging behind with slow speeds(Av5MB/sec) and expensive data costs at $1.10/MB compared with Japan at $0.01/MB and Korea at $0.21/MB (chart). Quote from the Video:.." Not only are our speeds slower but Americans pay more per megabit than any other major world economy ..[pause]..well, at least we are better than New Zealand "....[some laughter from the audience] (12.40/58.32)

Google Fibre ....download speed 1000MB/second ...upload speed 1000MB/sec...no data cap!!! no connection fees*......1TB DVR...Nexus 7 (use also as a remote)... $120/month incl access to Google TV...without Google TV its $70/month. (http://fiber.google.com/about/)
Ok not interested...Google has another deal...just hook up (future proof you house) pay the one off $300 connection fee and they will supply you with 5MB/sec download 1MB/sec upload speed connection to the internet with no data cap FREE for 7 Years!!!!!!

Media response to this news
Todays news 14th November from the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-20324072)

http://gizmodo.com/5929295/googles-crazy-1000mbps-fiber-internet-connection-is-out-today

I was led to believe we in NZ were competing with the world with this Fibre roll out... until I was made aware of overseas developments.... It now looks like these smaller NZ internet providers offering NZ Fibre speeds are very expensive and offer poor fibre speed performance ....

So to Telecom Vodafone please take note that some of us are watching....and we want a fair deal when your Fibre plans roll out

EDIT Vodafone half year loss at $NZ -3.87billion....ouch!!!! They lost 50,000 NZ customers in the 6 months to 30 Sept 2012 (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/7953706/Vodafone-NZ-customer-numbers-dip)

[craic]

NZ = Very large country, comparitively speaking, with a tiny population. You will always have to watch twice as many TV ads as the bigger populations - you will always have to pay more for everything technical because there are fewer of us to meet the costs. But there are benefits - that's why I'm still here after 53 years.

[Hoop]

quote:.... In the world of Internet Customer Service, it’s important to remember your competitor is only one mouse click away. - Doug Warner

Hoops been watching some Hulu lately (proxyserver)...nice:)

[pierre]

TEL is yielding 8.53% at its current SP of 2.35. That's a whole lot better than anything in the bank (or from David Ross Asset Management).


Anyone got any thoughts on whether the SP will hold when the buyback is completed and whether the current rate of divvie is likely to be maintained for the next twelve months?

[ananda77]

TEL is yielding 8.53% at its current SP of 2.35. That's a whole lot better than anything in the bank (or from David Ross Asset Management).

Anyone got any thoughts on whether the SP will hold when the buyback is completed and whether the current rate of divvie is likely to be maintained for the next twelve months?

...am in and bought TEL on the ASX - yield 8.37% (NZ liquidity bit restraining for good deals). Think Tel will be competitive after Telstra left judging by the current deals available in mobile, fixed line or broadband. Just go out and compare customer volume in stores - Also, their shops are attractive, bright, open, inviting compared to the red, depressing dullness and the overpowering blueness (like going into hole with both of them)
...forget the noise in the press - just plain bull - same happened with TLS last year when I bought them around the 2.70 mark (very attractive yield) - I mean the bull**** one could read back then in the news, unbelievable - anyway, see where they are now...

Kind Regards

[craic]

Over the year that I have held TEL the dividend has remained fairly stable and well above market rates. In 2010 when I was in the UK on holiday the cps dropped into the 180's. It has been up and down since then and was the same or lower this time last year as it is now. Forget what you read, this one continues to deliver but the technical advice I have had from a close relative who has been working at the top of this field all his life is that CNU could be the dog in this area. They are not getting the pick-up rate that they need to pay their way.

[Major von Tempsky]

You guys are absolute morons! Are you cross-eyed? Suffering from astigmatism? Can't you read a table properly? Aren't you NZers? Don't you pay any tax?

The yield % is not what you get - the GROSS YIELD % is! Go away, have a sit down and a nice cup of tea, talk to someone intelligent and reread your tables. The gross yield % compares with what you get from your bank account, its a lot higher and its still a lot higher after you take off tax from both bank/bond interest and tax from the gross yield.

The GROSS YIELD % is 11.37%!

The received wisdom at the moment is that Telecoms distributable amount might decline slightly.

That means you would get a helluva lot more than putting your money in the bank, a helluva lot more than putting your money in bonds (with a future risk of a huge decline in the value of your bond).
Or, possibly a helluva lot more minus a small amount. I'm still quite happy with this second scenario.

Cast your eyes down the gross yield % column in the paper and you'll see that TEL has a higher gross yield % than any other company with a sustainable dividend that is not affected by one-off special divedends.
The 2 that come closest are Restaurant Brands 8.67% (could you sleep soundly each night wondering about a possible Restaurant Brands sales collapse?) and Hallenstein Glassons 8.57% (again worries about have they got the fashions right for next season?) vs TEL's 11.37%.

[sharer]

Yesterday i bought a 2nd cellph to provide to my fairly frequent guests to keep them in touch while they gad about town - TEL has lots of fairly attractive cheap offers atm.

I've been holding TEL since their ipo, have never worried too much about their various market problems, but have occasionally reduced & later repurchased at lower prices, so that overall increase in holding now is about 3 times original from ipo, for about the same money invested.
Have to agree with above comments about Chorus though - some anxiety inevitable until we see how much damage ComCom rulings will do, plus, i've never seen a good economic argument for the govt's UFB scheme, and certainly won't myself be considering any much more expensive fibre broadband when it comes to market. Can't help worrying whether decision to hold on to the Chorus shares might have been a mistake. Seems very likely the govt's agents will ruin their business, at least for a while.

[pierre]

Yes - I take your point MVT. I was a bit lazy just reading the yield off the DB web site and not allowing for the imputation credit.

I consider myself suitably chastised and will not do this again.
I consider myself suitably chastised and will not do this again.
I consider myself suitably chastised and will not do this again

Cheers

Pierre

[ananda77]

You guys are absolute morons! Are you cross-eyed? Suffering from astigmatism? Can't you read a table properly? Aren't you NZers? Don't you pay any tax?

The yield % is not what you get - the GROSS YIELD % is! Go away, have a sit down and a nice cup of tea, talk to someone intelligent and reread your tables. The gross yield % compares with what you get from your bank account, its a lot higher and its still a lot higher after you take off tax from both bank/bond interest and tax from the gross yield.

The GROSS YIELD % is 11.37%!

The received wisdom at the moment is that Telecoms distributable amount might decline slightly.

That means you would get a helluva lot more than putting your money in the bank, a helluva lot more than putting your money in bonds (with a future risk of a huge decline in the value of your bond).
Or, possibly a helluva lot more minus a small amount. I'm still quite happy with this second scenario.

Cast your eyes down the gross yield % column in the paper and you'll see that TEL has a higher gross yield % than any other company with a sustainable dividend that is not affected by one-off special divedends.
The 2 that come closest are Restaurant Brands 8.67% (could you sleep soundly each night wondering about a possible Restaurant Brands sales collapse?) and Hallenstein Glassons 8.57% (again worries about have they got the fashions right for next season?) vs TEL's 11.37%.

...stand on your head if you like MVT, but 8.37% is what ends up net in my bank account and that is what matters

Kind Regards

[Snow Leopard]

You guys are absolute morons! Are you cross-eyed? Suffering from astigmatism? Can't you read a table properly? Aren't you NZers? Don't you pay any tax?

The yield % is not what you get - the GROSS YIELD % is! Go away, have a sit down and a nice cup of tea, talk to someone intelligent and reread your tables....

Get back on the medicine MvT
but keep posting.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

[pierre]

...stand on your head if you like MVT, but 8.37% is what ends up net in my bank account and that is what matters


I think the point that MVT is making is that the gross yield from a TEL dividend needs to be compared with the gross interest rate received on a bank depoisit. They are both subject to tax so it's incorrect to compare the net divvie received (after tax) from TEL at 8.57% compared with the gross interest rate from the bank.

The actual net return from each investment depends of course on your individual tax rate. If you are taxed at 17.5% then your net after tax return from TEL is actually 9.62% (based on SP of $2.35 of course).

Am I right Major?

[Corporate]

Lets talk about what the actual dividend might be in coming years. Looking at the 2012 annual report, earnings per share from continuing operations is 16 cents. The planned dividend payout ratio is 90%. Therefore if earnings are stable we would expect dividends of 14.4 cents per share.

Therefore 14.4/236 = 6.1% (net) or 8.47% if fully imputed to 28 cents.

Any thoughts on this, I am new to TEL and could have this wrong.

[winner69]

Love the headlines sometimes ... like todays in stuff

Telecom slide weighs on NZ50

[Corporate]

Love the headlines sometimes ... like todays in stuff

Telecom slide weighs on NZ50

Whys' that winner?

[winner69]

just in total admiration of the high quality of the press in NZ

[Major von Tempsky]

I have a slight suspicion, Corporate, that your figure relates to a half year and you should therefore double it.

[sharer]

News today about two large new data centres to come online during next 2yrs approx, seems good for Geni business corner.
As usual, i've no idea why s.p. is sliding, but if it continues far enough there could be temptation to dust off the chequebook again.

[pierre]

According to the DB website, earnings were 53.57 cents per share for the past year so no doubt you are right MVT.

The SP continues to slide - down 4c to 231 as I write - so the yield (whichever way you elect to calculate it) is becoming more and more attractive.

The big questions though are: why is the SP heading south and when will the trend reverse?

[winner69]

According to the DB website, earnings were 53.57 cents per share for the past year so no doubt you are right MVT.

The SP continues to slide - down 4c to 231 as I write - so the yield (whichever way you elect to calculate it) is becoming more and more attractive.

The big questions though are: why is the SP heading south and when will the trend reverse?

Yesterday the papers said 1 cent decline was a SLIDE

Hell today the headline read 'Telecom share price COLLAPSES' or something

[winner69]

Lets put it down to profit taking ... thats what they usually say

[blobbles]

Not sure why TEL price is continuing to trend lower. They look like they will continue with a 20c yearly dividend (which for me prices them at about $2.80 as a long term investment) for a while yet and have a good market position to take advantage of future markets (UFB) which may increase profits. Maybe everyone is just cashing in their TEL shares to buy into fonterra/other good performing funds?

[blobbles]

Good tip belgarion, it made me look closer into their records (I had only a measly amount with them previously, so never really looked closely).Looks like I might be getting out soon after all...

[blobbles]

(Oh, for anyone interested, it appears that Telecom really only made 311 million after tax profit = 16.8cps. Don't believe their 60cps they state. They paid out 20c this year, I believe this is what you are referring to Belgarion?).

Sometimes its better to be proved wrong before you make a financial ass out of yourself :-)

[Corporate]

I have a slight suspicion, Corporate, that your figure relates to a half year and you should therefore double it.


No I took this from the latest annual report - continuing operations.

[Joshuatree]

A friend offered this. " Remember that TEL has nearly completed a $300 million buyback. This equates to re 7%. Thus even if actual earnings are flat then there should be 7% EPS growth.Also profit and cashflow are not the same. cashflow should be alot higher with depreciation. also i imagine that alot of one off costs were incurred with the Chorus split. ".... "TEL no longer affected by Commerce commision regulating its allowable charge out rate like Chorus and Vector which have both just been smashed by commerce commission"... Wht say ye, fellowes.?

[CJ]

Also profit and cashflow are not the same. cashflow should be alot higher with depreciation. Just on this point, not necessarily true. If their capex is greater than depreciation, then cashflow will be lower than profit.

[ananda77]

I have a slight suspicion, Corporate, that your figure relates to a half year and you should therefore double it.

...according to expectations of a 15 cent/share dividend and a 90% imputation credit, the yield for full year 2013 = 6.5% - full year 2014 expected dividend = 16 cents/share = 6.9% yield 90% imputed.
...based on these numbers. Tel unable to compete with Tls, especially on expectations of a increased dividend pay out.

Kind Regards

[Joshuatree]

Where did you get that "opinion" from ananda, kinda meaningless otherwise. Morningstar are "predicting" a 19c div for 2013.

[ananda77]

Where did you get that "opinion" from ananda, kinda meaningless otherwise. Morningstar are "predicting" a 19c div for 2013.

...latest estimated net metrics: tel - tls

http://i49.tinypic.com/10d6paa.png http://i50.tinypic.com/348gdxu.png

...by the way, tls fair value increased to AUD 4.30 just recently

Kind Regards

[Joshuatree]

PHEW OK Its in $AUS !!! Great. Looking to buy more , but wheres the bottom ? Any chartists care to comment? thanks

[ananda77]

PHEW OK Its in $AUS !!! Great. Looking to buy more , but wheres the bottom ? Any chartists care to comment? thanks

Yes, tls in AUD - tel in NZD here is the AUD equivalent for tel on the asx:

http://i45.tinypic.com/2lc1bow.png

Kind Regards

[BIRMANBOY]

I/m not a chartist but Tel has bought back approx 10,000,000 shares since 22/11. According to my calculations they have approx 35,000,000 shares left (at 2.20 +/- )to reach the figure they were supposedly aiming for of $300,000,000 buy back. So if they keep buying at that rate in roughly 3 weeks they will stop buying, Which begs the question...what will that do to the price? Fewer buyers one might expect the price to fade somewhat? Its dropping now which may be holders anticipating a coming lack of interest. Personally I think the dynamics here are outside the usefullness of any charts.
PHEW OK Its in $AUS !!! Great. Looking to buy more , but wheres the bottom ? Any chartists care to comment? thanks

[Joshuatree]

Craigs Research IN $NZ !!!! FY12 FY 13f FY!4$f

CASH DPS 0.20 0.18 0.18

Div imp % 100 100 100

Gross DIV Yield% 12 10.8 10.8

Div pay OUT RATIO% 135 93.6 91.3

[duncan macgregor]

You guys are absolute morons! Are you cross-eyed? Suffering from astigmatism? Can't you read a table properly? Aren't you NZers? Don't you pay any tax?

The yield % is not what you get - the GROSS YIELD % is! Go away, have a sit down and a nice cup of tea, talk to someone intelligent and reread your tables. The gross yield % compares with what you get from your bank account, its a lot higher and its still a lot higher after you take off tax from both bank/bond interest and tax from the gross yield.

The GROSS YIELD % is 11.37%!

The received wisdom at the moment is that Telecoms distributable amount might decline slightly.

That means you would get a helluva lot more than putting your money in the bank, a helluva lot more than putting your money in bonds (with a future risk of a huge decline in the value of your bond).
Or, possibly a helluva lot more minus a small amount. I'm still quite happy with this second scenario.

Cast your eyes down the gross yield % column in the paper and you'll see that TEL has a higher gross yield % than any other company with a sustainable dividend that is not affected by one-off special divedends.
The 2 that come closest are Restaurant Brands 8.67% (could you sleep soundly each night wondering about a possible Restaurant Brands sales collapse?) and Hallenstein Glassons 8.57% (again worries about have they got the fashions right for next season?) vs TEL's 11.37%.

MVT It looks good on paper as it has always done more or less. However It being a long term hold and accumulate type long term investment perhaps you might recap in hindesight a few sums.
1, $100,000 investment fifteen years ago divies reinvested up to now ?.
2,$100,000 invested ten years ago divies reinvested.
3,$100,000 invested five years ago divies reinvested.
To me The continual decline in the SP plus the decline in monetry value makes this not as good as it looks where property values increased at 10% PA over the the 15 year period. Macdunk

[Joshuatree]

So who disagrees with Craigs 2013 forecast of 18c on 93.6% payout and what then is your forecast. Is the mkt fretting that when the buyback finishes shortly that the s/ p will fall away even more; maybe the reverse will happen when the Value (say a sustainable 18c div) is seen. Appreciate your opinions . Cheers

[BIRMANBOY]

I dont have any opinion of Craigs crystal ball gazing but do think the SP has some way to drop yet. I will be waiting to load up some more to add to the portfolio however. Always difficult picking the bottom (or the top) but certainly seems to be more selling pressure in the depth charts on DB than the buying side. Take away the TEL buying and looks a bit weak. I think a lot of buyers may be waiting to see what happens when the buyback finishes. (couple of weeks by my reckoning). When the tide turns I expect to see heavy buying.
So who disagrees with Craigs 2013 forecast of 18c on 93.6% payout and what then is your forecast. Is the mkt fretting that when the buyback finishes shortly that the s/ p will fall away even more; maybe the reverse will happen when the Value (say a sustainable 18c div) is seen. Appreciate your opinions . Cheers

[duncan macgregor]

So who disagrees with Craigs 2013 forecast of 18c on 93.6% payout and what then is your forecast. Is the mkt fretting that when the buyback finishes shortly that the s/ p will fall away even more; maybe the reverse will happen when the Value (say a sustainable 18c div) is seen. Appreciate your opinions . CheersTo forecast the future look at the past for your first clue. The past is good dividends etc on a dropping share price. Then look at expectation of market share against competition. Are they in a better position in the market place than last year first up or previous years?. My opinion is market share is declining prospects are declining therefore share price will decline regardless of dividends which might be keep up to please the punters in the short term. That has been my unchanged opinion for the last fifteen years which if you read back is dead right on this company. To much greed at the top with to little care about service and loyalty has seen this companies SP descend to the depths of today unless that changes avoid completely. You cant afford to pay millions to some one to half the share price paying a CEO the way this company does.
[That is always been my opinion] Macdunk

[BIRMANBOY]

I see you've started on the Xmas grog early...your opinion on Tel is well known ( and a bit boring). It may have escaped your notice that the SP on many companies drops occasionally. Tel is no exception however the reality is that this is a welcome situation for many investors since it presents an opportunity to buy more HIGH YIELDING shares at an advantageous price.
To forecast the future look at the past for your first clue. The past is good dividends etc on a dropping share price. Then look at expectation of market share against competition. Are they in a better position in the market place than last year first up or previous years?. My opinion is market share is declining prospects are declining therefore share price will decline regardless of dividends which might be keep up to please the punters in the short term. That has been my unchanged opinion for the last fifteen years which if you read back is dead right on this company. To much greed at the top with to little care about service and loyalty has seen this companies SP descend to the depths of today unless that changes avoid completely. You cant afford to pay millions to some one to half the share price paying a CEO the way this company does.
[That is always been my opinion] Macdunk

[Joshuatree]

Its int comparing charts for TLS and TEL. Over 10 years they have tracked each other pretty closely. Both bottomed 1n 2010 and only started diverging from each other re april 2011 then tracked each other again until Oct 2012 where Telstra crossed over and kept climbing and Tel did the reverse.. Youd have to have a pretty powerful conviction that they won't converge again....but which way...Methinks Tel will resume tracking TLS and play catch up soon with a vgood div underpinning it.

[macduffy]

I'm not so sure about that.

In the past, TEL and TLS have been very similar companies operating mainly on their own patches either side of the Tasman. But the splitting of Chorus from TEL - and the different govt policies in respect of fibre with its different effects on TEL and TLS - has left the former a very different company to its previous self. I wouldn't expect, therefore, that TEL and TLS would necessarily resume that previous pattern.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes always a good idea to engage brain before relying on charts.
I'm not so sure about that.

In the past, TEL and TLS have been very similar companies operating mainly on their own patches either side of the Tasman. But the splitting of Chorus from TEL - and the different govt policies in respect of fibre with its different effects on TEL and TLS - has left the former a very different company to its previous self. I wouldn't expect, therefore, that TEL and TLS would necessarily resume that previous pattern.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks macduffy good observations, nothing is certain, always some guesswork. Tel must be close to finishing the buyback. vey little buy side depth im told. people waiting to see what happens maybe. I never rely on charts exclusively but they are a useful tool in helping ones decisions. TEL like TLS is the incumbent and with ever increasing smartphone take-up and ever changing landscape i hope to keep getting a good div.

[Joshuatree]

Re $41 million left to complete the buyback.

[Hoop]

Yes always a good idea to engage brain before relying on charts.

Charting is just another tool in the investors toolbox......Its a bit like a carpenters hammer it pays to understand which end to hold on to ... to get the maximum effect out of its use.

Updated chart from 29102012 post #2062 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3593-TEL-%28Telecom-NZ-Ltd%29/page138)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL11112012.png

[Joshuatree]

Re $32million sold today. The buyback may finish tomorrow.Be int to see where it goes after.

[Silverlight]

Charting is just another tool in the investors toolbox......Its a bit like a carpenters hammer it pays to understand which end to hold on to ... to get the maximum effect out of its use.

Updated chart from 29102012 post #2062 (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3593-TEL-%28Telecom-NZ-Ltd%29/page138)



Hoop my understanding of the head and shoulders pattern is that it comes at the end of a trend? Your graph seems to cover and very significant timeframe?

Currently on the sidelines, I will be a buyer circa $2.

[BIRMANBOY]

Rather than a dollar amount I would be looking at the relative depth and support re the buyers and sellers but you could well be right...I was guessing 2.10. However when it turns my feeling is it will turn fast and strongly and if one waits till the last possible moment one may miss the bus.
Hoop my understanding of the head and shoulders pattern is that it comes at the end of a trend? Your graph seems to cover and very significant timeframe?

Currently on the sidelines, I will be a buyer circa $2.

[Joshuatree]

Good to learn a little about charting thanks guys. However it may not help as TEL may have finished the buyback today with re $42 million of shares sold.We will know re 9 am tomorrow.We may well be able to buy cheaper tomorrow and i will load up if so but the contrarian in me started getting a few today . New CEO is promising too shaking things up, ...a new broom.

[Hoop]

Hoop my understanding of the head and shoulders pattern is that it comes at the end of a trend? Your graph seems to cover and very significant timeframe?

Currently on the sidelines, I will be a buyer circa $2.

Yes ....a confirmed H&S marks an end to a trend unless the pattern fails..(The bearish H&S pattern is the most reliable of chart patterns and has the lowest failure rate))......the trend could be short term trend ending on a H&S pattern on a minute chart to that of a long term trend ending on a H&S pattern on a weekly chart. A H&S pattern therefore can be a pattern within a larger longer term H&S pattern...meaning a secondary trend breaks but the primary trend remains intact. My previous chart post #2062 has that pattern within a pattern feature....Its handy to know about pattern within patterns because it gives you a better idea of the possible outcome and gives you more confidence when making a trading decision.Bulkowski example of a pattern within a pattern (http://thepatternsite.com/Blog-May08.html#P20)

Silverlight my latest chart may look odd for a H&S pattern the right side shoulder can be hard to see..this is because the pattern has the shoulders tilted downwards Left to right.
Trading with a H&S pattern ...according to Bulkowski.... the target price = N break price - (H -distance below H to drawn neck line) ....2.32 - (2.84 - 2.32) = $1.82
The target price is met only 55% of the time, a conservatism factor to boost the % chance of happening therefore the formula is 2.32 - (55% x [2.84 - 2.32] = $2.04

Supports are barriers that the bearish target price has to be strong enough to fight through these to reach its objective. TEL could fail to fall below any one of these supports.

There are 2 significant supports... a zone at 2.13 to 2.19 (Note.TEL closed on this support today) and a level at 1.98...as both of these are well above the $1.82 Target price but quite close to the conservative TP of $2.04.
Silverlight and Birmanboy at around $2 and $2.10 these seem reasonable entry points atm imho....however as time goes on, waiting for buy signals and at what price may show a different story and change our minds.

Target pricing is not a prediction of a bottom being reached, it can not foresee the future... it deals only in a mathematical chance of happening in reaching that specific price point......

Wait for buy signals is the best advice

[Joshuatree]

A bounce in S/P today on big volume ( 11million plus so far) in fact biggest volume by far in the 2 year chart on NZX, up re 1.5c.

[Jay]

Could it be currency hedging again seems as the US$ took a hike

[Joshuatree]

19 million shares traded and a finish up 2c. Bought some more. Kiwi up on US$ a fraction down on $A today.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes but how much of that was TEL buyback? They purchased 4 million 13th. I still think it could drop a bit personally but that may well be wishfull thinking. The buyback still has a little longer to go i think.
19 million shares traded and a finish up 2c. Bought some more. Kiwi up on US$ a fraction down on $A today.

[BIRMANBOY]

My impression from looking at numbers is that they are escalating the buy back quantities as the opportunity presents better buying at lower prices. The big question arises as to what will happen when the buyback finishes...will the demand sort of dry up forcing SP down further or will buyers charge in and snap up some bargains. I'm divided so am waiting...waiting...waiting (hopefully not in vain). The game is to buy at exactly the right moment.
I'm sure management would much rather buy back at prices under $2.20 than a price of $2.50.

[Joshuatree]

Goodluck picking the bottom.I prefer to average in near a bottom hopefully lol, these days. .With telecom buying back say a quarter or a third of available shares in recent days, its int that others buying the bulk, are prepared to push up the price to get in yest at least.. Im getting the feeling those who wait until buyback is finished will be left trying to remember a receding dream. The good thing for me is, if im wrong i will average down .

[RazorX]

Good point Joshua. I used to try and buy/sell at bottom or tops. Always get left holding onto dust lol. These days I look for broad support/resistance zones.

I have been looking at the charts for TEL and there is a support zone between $1.80 to 2.20. Picking exactaly where the price will find the very bottom in this zone is crystal ball stuff. It could blow right through it.

Personally I look at buying near the mid-top of a support zone so around $2.10 at the moment. Depth is showing sellers around $2.17 up to $2.34 while buyers is $2.17 down to about 2.06.

[BIRMANBOY]

AS my old mate Kenny Rogerts says..you've got to know when to hold em..know when to fold em". Intellectually I agree and will be buying in and prepared to average down if necessary. My last vestiges of testosterone is telling me trust your instincts..its got some way to go.
Goodluck picking the bottom.I prefer to average in near a bottom hopefully lol, these days. .With telecom buying back say a quarter or a third of available shares in recent days, its int that others buying the bulk, are prepared to push up the price to get in yest at least.. Im getting the feeling those who wait until buyback is finished will be left trying to remember a receding dream. The good thing for me is, if im wrong i will average down .

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes but the elephant in the building is the buyback..the support tables doesnt show how many TEL want/will buy back and how many sellers may be hunkered over the monitors waiting to sell and looking for the spread to buy back in (and at what point). However as you say could blow right through very quickly and (either way) so is a fascinating situation.
Good point Joshua. I used to try and buy/sell at bottom or tops. Always get left holding onto dust lol. These days I look for broad support/resistance zones.

I have been looking at the charts for TEL and there is a support zone between $1.80 to 2.20. Picking exactaly where the price will find the very bottom in this zone is crystal ball stuff. It could blow right through it.

Personally I look at buying near the mid-top of a support zone so around $2.10 at the moment. Depth is showing sellers around $2.17 up to $2.34 while buyers is $2.17 down to about 2.06.

[Joshuatree]

Elephant has left the strawberry patch a little early. Telecom have just announced the closure of their buyback buying 118,577,138 shres for $282,856.977.

[winner69]

Elephant has left the strawberry patch a little early. Telecom have just announced the closure of their buyback buying 118,577,138 shres for $282,856.977.

Good one .... and that number goes against TSR (Total Shareholder Return) which will make it look really healthy this year - shareprice gain (or loss) plus divies plus this

Maybe a few execs incentives tied to TSR .... how cynical

[CJ]

I dont do TA but I assume TEL is in a downtrend since about August and have just lost a big buyer in the market.

Or do the institutions that just sold to into the buyback start buying back in now to get their weightings right going into the end of the year?

[BIRMANBOY]

At 2.16 close the sellers outnumbering buyers at 668,000 shares to 392,000. Still waiting but how many sellers can there be willing to sell below 2.10. Wheres the point of resistance.

[winner69]

At 2.16 close the sellers outnumbering buyers at 668,000 shares to 392,000. Still waiting but how many sellers can there be willing to sell below 2.10. Wheres the point of resistance.

Whats special about 210

[BIRMANBOY]

A cluster of buyers poised there.....some consensus of belief??? I just cant imagine too many holders owning shares below 2.10 so that also stiffens the sellers willingness to sell.
Whats special about 210

[winner69]

Not thinking very well today so what does this mean

Telcom have bought $283m of their own shares since the beginning of the year

Shareprice at beginning of year was 205 and is now 215

Market cap now $3.906 billion which is about $43m less than the $3.947 billion at the start of the year

This means that essentially Mr Market has been very very clever and just ended the year adjsuting for the share bought back ...... and as such as not added anything (actually reduced) to the market value of TEL .... in a year the NZX has gone up nesrly 30%

Maybe can enlighten me a bit more

Whatever the TEL balance sheet looks healthier .... at least thats what they say

[sharer]

The share buyback thing remains questionable in my mind. Yes, i know the "market theory" stuff about it, i get told off every time i say this, but i still feel it could be better to reward shareholders who wish to continue or expand their holdings, rather than reward those willing to dump out for a quick profit.

[winner69]

TEL dividends for the year (from Jan 1) totaled about $375m
They also gave back $282m to shareholders
Market cap fell by $41m over the year

So Total Shareholder Return for the year (from Jan 1) about $617m - 16% return on opening market cap ---- and before any tax benefits for shareholders

Bloody good - a real cash cow

[BIRMANBOY]

The worm has turned...up....glad I got in at 2.17..now at 222.5. My original theory of 2.10 well and truly gone....for the moment anyway. Mid January may be different. In at 2.16 out at 2.23 with 50,000 shares would have a been a nice morning tea.....sigh.

[pierre]

The worm has turned...up....glad I got in at 2.17..now at 222.5. My original theory of 2.10 well and truly gone....for the moment anyway. Mid January may be different. In at 2.16 out at 2.23 with 50,000 shares would have a been a nice morning tea.....sigh.

Birman - TEL closed at 225.5 - maybe you can buy a nice lunch as well!

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes indeed..would have been nice. All theory since I am holding for divs not trading but the alterego bad birmanboy would have been pleased. Next year...the retirement kicks in and some funds will be set aside for "play money" and will give it a go..just have to keep it compartmentalized from retirement portfolio.
Birman - TEL closed at 225.5 - maybe you can buy a nice lunch as well!

[Major von Tempsky]

Looks like a very good catch for Telecom Tim Miles - CEO of Vodafone NZ for 4 years amongst other things :-)

[Major von Tempsky]

Yep. I think the explanation was that he was desperate to get his family and himself back from the UK to NZ. PGG Wrightson was a dog, an awkward cuss, that was never going to be a 10 bagger under anyone and he stuck it for 3 years all credit to him.

[Minerbarejet]

yes MvT. Not such a good job at PGG Wrightson, but his background is IT. I can see him fitting in nicely at Gen-I-Tel. :-)
Now that I have finished rolling around on the floor and have wiped the tears from my eyes; Nice one, Sparky. Went right over MVTs head by the looks.
H.A.N.D :t_up::D

[Major von Tempsky]

Ok, it's a slow newsday....
Probably like some other not so hip sharetraders I've been wondering about the origin and meaning of "majorbarejet".

Was it some attempted spin-off from Major von Tempsky? Was it some degenerate drug addicted punk rock group I had never heard of? (I listen to the concert program and classical music actually) Or something from one of the 4 Sky TV children's cartoon channels?
But now I think I've found the answer in the world news section of today's Press.

"Virginie Merle, 50, has emerged as the unlikely leader of a campaign against President François Hollande's plan to authorise same sex couples to marry and adopt children....
She is known by the name Frigide Barjot - which translates roughly as Frigid Nutter - that she uses in her public appearances on radio and television".
So I wonder, hmmm, barjet barjot, barjot barejet....
I mean "e" and "o" are both on the same line of the QWERTY keyboard, an accidental touch with say the left little finger while swigging from a cup of coffee....

[Minerbarejet]

Miles away but nice try. have you( made your bed yet) from let stalk Strine by Dr Afferbeck Lauder - popular book in the sixties. BTW Major I live not far from where your namesake departed the planet at Te Ngutu o Te Manu. H.A.N.D:)

[Major von Tempsky]

Ah! Thanks for assuaging my curiosity. One of my ancestors fought under von Tempsky's command in the Maori Wars. He was beloved of his men and greatly respected by his Maori opponents. Two of his men died in fruitless attempts to retrieve his body. It seems from the circumstances that he was driven mad by pressure from his creditors and fought recklessly as a sort of suicide until the inevitable happened. Painted some good art and had a Maori mistress. I don't think he left any descendants.

[Minerbarejet]

Maybe we should get off the Tel thread to off market discussions. Cheers

[Joshuatree]

You guys ever been to Sidetrack Cafe? ex food there too:p.
Will TEL hit my buy which has been sittingat $2.20 for a few weeks? looking close but its 20 min time delay where im watching

[fish]

You guys ever been to Sidetrack Cafe? ex food there too:p.
Will TEL hit my buy which has been sittingat $2.20 for a few weeks? looking close but its 20 min time delay where im watching
Hit a low 2.205 today
You will often find a lot of buy orders on nice round numbers so I would put in a buy order at 2.205 if i really wanted to buy.
I use asb margin lending and can always get current prices-as i dont watch prices that closely i usually have a number of buy and sell orders current all the time-each evening i adjust these according to trends etc .

[Joshuatree]

Hi Ya Fish. Nearly 2 million shares today plenty liquidity. May reset below $2.20 tomorrow.Maybe Risk On being the mkt psychology at the mo but what do i know. Sheesh last nite i conjured up an anchor that could float.:cool::t_up::p

[Hoop]

Good to learn a little about charting thanks guys. However it may not help as TEL may have finished the buyback today with re $42 million of shares sold.We will know re 9 am tomorrow.We may well be able to buy cheaper tomorrow and i will load up if so but the contrarian in me started getting a few today . New CEO is promising too shaking things up, ...a new broom.

update from last chart 12 Dec 2012 post#2112
There were no medium term TA buy signals then and as of the close Jan3rd there still isn't any...TA 1 verses Contrarian investing 0...Contrarian Investing 1 only if you bought at 2.16 and sold out at the TA resistance point of 2.31 or thereabouts
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL03012013_zps35507720.png

[Minerbarejet]

Sheesh last nite i conjured up an anchor that could float.:cool::t_up::p
Was that the Fonterra (anchor) listing(float):eek2:

[Joshuatree]

You keep the score Hoop i will keep the Divis. .Hope your hoop is at regulation height:)

[Hoop]

You keep the score Hoop i will keep the Divis. .Hope your hoop is at regulation height:)

I keep divies too....but divies can be an evil temptation when the capital asset depreciation risk is higher than the reward

[Major von Tempsky]

"Technical" "analysis" is nothing of the kind and as has been pointed is for those uninterested in divvies.

It's also for those with a short attention span, short run outlook and a short life span.

Luckily I have some good genes and a healthy lifestyle and expect at least another 40 years. So if you want to debate the subject again Hoop mark it in your 2053 diary....

[Joshuatree]

cheers guys good to hear all sides. One thing for sure ; as my memory gets shorter i want to hold Div shares longer.

[Joshuatree]

Was that the Fonterra (anchor) listing(float):eek2: Good one Major. Hope you got on board The Milky Hooker. Still climbing as i write. Floating Anchors well you heard it first on Sharetrader.

[Joshuatree]

Eighteen cents tops

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Down to 219, starting to get closer to where I get interested. I also appreciate Hoop's charts, although I don't "trade", there's no denying that they provide some pretty meaningful information.

[duncan macgregor]

Down to 219, starting to get closer to where I get interested. I also appreciate Hoop's charts, although I don't "trade", there's no denying that they provide some pretty meaningful information. I think if some of you guys paid more attention to charts you might do a lot better. TEL share price was $8-4o in jan 2000 dropping to $6-16 in jan 2005, then dropping to $2-38 in jan 2010 only to drop below $2-20 today. Says a lot for dividend investing guys perhaps you should ask Hoop to show you how to do a bit of technical analysis for a change. Dont let dividends blind you to losing your initial capital. Macdunk

[Joshuatree]

Yes i can see the sense in that ,helping re when to get in and out and appreciate charts being posted,Im not in a them and us camp.I have all manner of stocks with all manner of risk reward. Im starting to change slowly to a greater component of Div stocks with some cap gain being a bonus. Have been focused on getting a good stake in TEL for a while based on re 18c div(no real evidence to back this). Seems to be good value atm, I forget re the usefulness of charts. Do find your waterfall of s/p comparisons a bit irrelevant in this constantly changing mkt e.g. TEL not under the regulators eye now. Simply im 58 and needing more income and less worry TEL is one that currently fits.Dont try to time bottoms any more ,repeating myself agin. I havnt had my fill yet so if any one can share their charts , cheers. Now who wants to be 2nd to place an order for a multipurpose floating anchor;)

[Hoop]

"Technical" "analysis" is nothing of the kind and as has been pointed is for those uninterested in divvies.

It's also for those with a short attention span, short run outlook and a short life span.

Luckily I have some good genes and a healthy lifestyle and expect at least another 40 years. So if you want to debate the subject again Hoop mark it in your 2053 diary....
MVT I used to be a long term FA investor and I come from a family of long livers...so you're on :)

....hmmm let me see if I have any free times in my 2053 diary ...February all booked out as I will be celebrating my 102nd birthday and need recovery time .... but the rest of the year is free....oh you're welcome to come to my birthday party though...I'd love it if you would bring me a present :) (oxygen bottles and portable life support systems are welcome but no Telecom shares please)

[Joshuatree]

Biggest vol in over 2 years; by far today with a dropping price. A friend offered this" The NZD is moving south vs the USD fast . There has been a large long NZD short USD trade going on. With that trade now reversing money is flowing the other way- i.e. from NZD back to USD to lock in profits and avoid losses. If you held NZD one of the places you would put it would be TEL as it is one of NZ's most liquid companies and easaest to put money in and out of. Thus the selling pressure that is happening now may have nothing to do with the companies performance, / prospects"

[Hoop]

Biggest vol in over 2 years; by far today with a dropping price. A friend offered this" The NZD is moving south vs the USD fast . There has been a large long NZD short USD trade going on. With that trade now reversing money is flowing the other way- i.e. from NZD back to USD to lock in profits and avoid losses. If you held NZD one of the places you would put it would be TEL as it is one of NZ's most liquid companies and easaest to put money in and out of. Thus the selling pressure that is happening now may have nothing to do with the companies performance, / prospects"

Yes TEL has known to be affected by NZD movement when overseas investors take flight to safe havens in times of stress.

On my last chart look at the OBV this indicator (Phaedrus favourite indicator) shows when there's an accumulation or distribution of shares traded in other words it shows changes in buying or selling pressures....It alerts investors to the fact that when you see smoke it is usually a fire.
It's a great indicator as it sometimes shows big players exiting under the radar during good media news and rising share price for reasons unknown to us lesser mortals until much later to our detriment.....also the opposite when a big player enters and slowly accumulates during periods of gloom, buying just enough as to not affecting the falling share price...These are called divergences.
The OBV measurement is cumulative of buying/selling history.

Relating to TEL OBV There has been selling pressures since late October 2012 which indicates that there are more factors in play than just the NZD sell down ...perhaps the gloomy 2013 outlook announcement is still sinking in or maybe something else we are not yet been made aware of. This is the time for an investor interested in TEL to do detective work to find out what forces are currently at work in creating this continual selling pressure...
.Joshuatree has mentioned NZD factor ..others??

Below is an enlargement of the OBV indicator + TEL share price chart

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TELOBV04012013_zps46baaca6.png

[Major von Tempsky]

And for a fundamental value analyst, Buffett follower (you should read the excellent book "Buffettology" by Mary Buffett some time Hoop and delay further comments until after you have read it) its time to quietly accumulate shares regardless of weird graphs which can be made to do anything by chooosing an appropriate base period...

[duncan macgregor]

There is nothing weird about a chart, it only gives the roller coaster price of a share over a period of time. Thirteen years ago the SP was $8-40 all the way down to todays price. Work out the dividends against the drop in share price over the years, then see if it was worth the effort. MVT says buy more of the same all the way down thus creating a bigger loss, but reducing his over all buy price. Buffet has control of companies we dont, we are forced to buy and sell in a completely way to him. Its pointless trying to copy a an investment style when we are in a completely different position. The chart lets us know volume and price, which is much more important than reading a pack of half truths as is often the case. Its nice to know buy and sell signals as they happen, to say they can be distorted is rubbish. I used the price of metal charts when buying and selling Aussie miners which worked a treat for me any way. I beleave the market knows best and sends clear signals before the event. Learn to read the signals is the safest way to invest not buy more of the same all the way down. Macdunk

[Hoop]

And for a fundamental value analyst, Buffett follower (you should read the excellent book "Buffettology" by Mary Buffett some time Hoop and delay further comments until after you have read it) its time to quietly accumulate shares regardless of weird graphs which can be made to do anything by chooosing an appropriate base period...

Yes MVT its an excellent book I read it many years go and I still recommend it people who haven't read it to read it.....

I may be wrong and I not the guy to comment much on this topic as it has been a long time since I looked over Buffets critera but I don't think TEL fits Buffets methodology as a buy either?..If memory recalls something about Buffet's crieria needing the company to have an uptrending rate of return and be at least in some double digit percentage (can't remember the number)over the last 10 years or something like that and the share price had to been demolished to an irrational low level such as those levels seen during the capitulation phase of the Bear market cycle. The NZX50 is not in Bear market, in fact its a raging bull market atm....so TEL share price atm is not dictated by investor panic/fear to sell

I can recall Snoopy doing some sort of Buffet type analysis on certain companies on the other channel many years ago... he would be the most knowledgable ST poster to comment on this topic and could clarify TEL status re Buffetology...

MVT maybe if we ask nicely, Snoopy may offer his expert and much valued opinion for us

[Snoopy]

I can recall Snoopy doing some sort of Buffet type analysis on certain companies on the other channel many years ago... he would be the most knowledgable ST poster to comment on this topic and could clarify TEL status re Buffetology...

MVT maybe if we ask nicely, Snoopy may offer his expert and much valued opinion for us


One of my New Years resolutions is to become active on the Telecom thread again Hoop.

The problem with a straight share price analysis with TEL is that you are not comparing apples with apples. If I may summarize the situation with a few event line bullet points.

1/ There is no doubt that the government did permanently damage the profitability of Telecom with the unbundling of the local loop. That was in the days of TG at the helm and she soon departed as the 'fall girl'. It is pointless dreaming of Telecom in the years before this at the peak of $8.40 (although even come LLUB it was around $6 IIRC) because this incident was a perrmanent step change downwards.
2/ Yellow pages was sold with a huge cash windfall. The Canadian Teachers pension fund that bought the thing in a superleveraged buyout subsequently went broke. But TEL shareholders got a rather nice special dividend, (and associated share cancellation) out of the whole sell down that straight share price watchers ignore.
3/ The share price watchers in fact ignore all dividends. Yet even the ordinary yield has consistently been 8% plus, even if the share price had to decline (temporarily?) to make it so. Over ten years the diovends harvested from Telecom have been very significant.
4/ Over the last year or so Telecom has split into 'New Telecom' and 'Chorus'. To do any sort of historic comparison from a year ago you have to remember to divide the Chorus share price by 5 then add that figure to your historic TEL holding price. To not do that I would say is a blatent distortion of the facts.

It is my intention to go back through the TEL results and "unpick the puzzle" so I can determine as much as possible a true apples with apples comparison for 'Old Telecom' (now 'New Telecom' and 'Chorus').

However this will not be easy:

1/ There is now a parallel management structure for each company that has permanently affected the combined cost structure.
2/ 'Chorus' listed in the old Telecom reports is not the same 'Chorus' that is listed now. 'New Chorus' contains some of the 'Old Telecom' wholesale division as well.
3/ The last published Telecom result contains the last months results from Chorus, and likewise the first published results for Chorus do not cover a twelve month period.

I have been wrestling with all of this over the last year and I think it will be true that when completed, my Telecom analysis will be the most difficult fundamental type share analysis that I have ever attempted. So no answer to your question as yet I am afraid, but I hope you can now see why I have been rather quiet on both TEL and CNU.

SNOOPY

[craic]

The price chart shows that at this time last year the price was below 200cps and I recall that two years before when I was in London it went down to 180cps. It has also climbed to 280 for a time last year. I have access to some expertise internationally in this area - Telecom, not sharemarket expertise - and they are quite happy that TEL is performing quite well. I must get out my old tax records and try and work out exactly the return I have had over a number of years. The bottom line is not whether your phone or internet goes down now and then - they all do - or how much a text costs - the companies cut each others throats day-to-day and all you do is waste time hopping from one plan to another and so on. The critical factor, the speed of data transfer in the money markets is now close to the speed of light and all the significant players have several lines of input and protection beyond the imagination of the average texter. Telecom has been a Bank for overseas investors for years and they will be back - just like the rain and the wind. I wish I had the bottle to sell the next time they go up past 275 cps.

[Snoopy]

Yes MVT its an excellent book I read it many years go and I still recommend it people who haven't read it to read it.....

I may be wrong and I not the guy to comment much on this topic as it has been a long time since I looked over Buffets criteria but I don't think TEL fits Buffets methodology as a buy either?..If memory recalls something about Buffet's criteria needing the company to have an uptrending rate of return and be at least in some double digit percentage (can't remember the number) over the last 10 years or something like that and the share price had to been demolished to an irrational low level such as those levels seen during the capitulation phase of the Bear market cycle. The NZX50 is not in Bear market, in fact its a raging bull market atm....so TEL share price atm is not dictated by investor panic/fear to sell


My memory from the "The Buffettology Workbook", also by Mary Buffett, is that Hoop's memory is pretty good. Buffett selects companies with an ROE of around 15%, and an increasing earnings trend. He then waits for some hiccup in the market or more specifically the share price of the company he is interested in to go down. Buffett buys at a low price on the expectation that because the company he has selected is fundamentally good and operates in a market where it has some history, scale and size,then it will recover.

TEL would certainly qualify from an ROE perspective, on operational results anyway. As for the normalised earnings over several years, that will have to wait until I do my piecemeal analysis. I suspect that TEL might not qualify on this score. But the high dividend I would regard as mitigation for this.

Buffett himself would not invest in TEL becasue he doesn't invest in telecommunications shares, because he does not understand them. That wouldn't stop those who do understand Telecommunications a bit better than Buffett investing in TEL using Buffetology methods though. And having said Buffett doesn't invest in Telecommunications, I think he has in invested in Telecommunication company bonds in the past. Some people might say that because of the high yield, Telecom shares themselves represent a kind of "quasi-bond".

SNOOPY

[duncan macgregor]

I would think Snoopy as a long term buy and hold share holder who goes after high dividend shares, TEL would be an easy easy share to work out. I presume you have been a holder for a number of years right back to the $8-40 days, then topped up then collecting the divies along the way. I put it to you you would have been better to stick the money in the bank. Show us what you did, and why, without giving out the quantities would be an interesting example of fundamental strategy. I have always critical of this companies attitude to customers and investors alike, and thankfully avoided ever buying into it. I always thought their prospects diminished year by year, and still think so being another reason not to buy in. Can you actually see the SP trending up over a long period of time in this climate?.

[winner69]

Biggest vol in over 2 years; by far today with a dropping price. A friend offered this" The NZD is moving south vs the USD fast . There has been a large long NZD short USD trade going on. With that trade now reversing money is flowing the other way- i.e. from NZD back to USD to lock in profits and avoid losses. If you held NZD one of the places you would put it would be TEL as it is one of NZ's most liquid companies and easaest to put money in and out of. Thus the selling pressure that is happening now may have nothing to do with the companies performance, / prospects"


so with the NZD back well over 83 over the weekend we should see a decent rise in TEL tomorrow?

[Hoop]

Thxs Snoopy
also MacDunk Craic Sparky with some thought provoking posts...
MacDunk..my feelings are similar to yours probably due to our past experiences....However a good point is raised from Sparky and Snoopy that TEL is a different animal now ...so perhaps do you think we both might have to rethink things when TEL fires buy signals in the future???...even so, I'm still reluctant to jump into any company with a long term investment view in mind when that company operates in an uncertain deflationary market environment...NZ has one of the highest domestic data costs rates in the Western World but its also subjected to a deflationary trend and COMCOM wavering the big stick to lower these costs even more...together with increasingly rapid technological change adding costs and the questionable ability for top management to keep one step ahead of these technological changes, its all perceived by me as additional investor risks....the reward to offset these risks using FA has to be a higher than average dividend which TEL has (9.0%):) and much lower PE ratio than average which TEL hasn't (13.7 Reuters):(....Snoopy I see Reuters has TEL ROE as 15.7 :)

Craic jogged my memory about Buffet...Snoopy..Was it in her book that a part of Buffet Methodology was looking for companies that had dominance or control over its markets and in doing so that company was able to preserve or dictate its higher profit margins above that of its competitors...either through its quality branding of a product or being a large enough fish in the pond to force it's market dominance...??

I feel TEL market dominance power is diminishing as time goes on...and although they restructured i feel they are still being adversely affected by the laws of marginal return.....surely this equates as a Buffetology investment no no

or have I got that investment criteria info from some-one else

[Snoopy]

Craic jogged my memory about Buffet...Snoopy..Was it in her book that a part of Buffet Methodology was looking for companies that had dominance or control over its markets and in doing so that company was able to preserve or dictate its higher profit margins above that of its competitors...either through its quality branding of a product or being a large enough fish in the pond to force it's market dominance...??


You are telling the Mary Buffett story well Hoop, except I think you are overdoing the market dominance bit. Yes market dominance would be the ideal, but as long as the company is strong and has market power then I think Buffett would consider the investment. I can't see Buffett saying, no I would never invest in Burger King because it is smaller than Macdonalds!

Also you understate the value aspect of Buffettology investing. A really good company at market values is unlikely to be of interest to Buffett. The ability to pick up a wonderful company at a discount to prevailing market value is what will drive Buffet's ten year returns. Merely selecting a good company will on average not provide the kind of returns that Buffett seeks.



I feel TEL market dominance power is diminishing as time goes on...and although they restructured i feel they are still being adversely affected by the laws of marginal return.....surely this equates as a Buffetology investment no no


Telecom was the incumbant provider, so with Vodaphone/Clear and others like 2 degrees on the scene you would expect TEL to lose some market share. However TEL still retain a very strong position in New Zealand. I think in every market they compete in TEL are number one or number two. I also observe that Telecom do on occasion win market share back from their competitors. But if you think Telecom have lost their market power, try starting a phone company of your own and see how far you get. 2 degrees did just that and are making huge losses. 2 degrees are only able to stay in business because of the deep pockets of their backers.

Not sure if you had 2 degrees in mind you you made your 'laws of marginal return' remark Hoop. The aim of 2 degrees is to build market share until cashflows finally cover the cost of their head office and masts around the country. 2 degrees do not care about making a profit until they grab a sustainable market share and Telecom and Vodaphone may be forced to match deals that are not profitable in a 2 degree sense.

Technology is always on the march in the telecommunications industry too. Prices at the retail level are under pressure. But this can still be a growth business model if you can cut costs faster than retail prices drop. So far Telecom are making quite a good fist of doing just that IMO.

SNOOPY

[Joshuatree]

[QUOTE=SparkyTheClown;389350]


-" I have heard whispers that revenue is up by 20% in certain key segments, though this may be at the expense of margins."

Sparky can you substantiate this ;thats quite some comment to make without some sort of source to validate it. With all the smartphone uptake it makes sense and i would love it to be the case esp with the S/P dropping .More questions than answers.

[CJ]

But if you think Telecom have lost their market power, try starting a phone company of your own and see how far you get. 2 degrees did just that and are making huge losses. 2 degrees are only able to stay in business because of the deep pockets of their backers.From memory, they also got their hands on spectrum on the cheap due to the fact that Maori claimed ownership over the airwaves - they were more advanced than the Egyptians and Mayans after all.

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Sparky. Ive emailed Craigs asking them to rattle their daggs and come up with an update(been over 3 months since their last research note).

Hi Winner , buggered if i know ,although wouldn't think such a short term move wouldn't make much diff; more likely the carry trade , buying/ selling the $.

[Hoop]

You are telling the Mary Buffett story well Hoop, except I think you are overdoing the market dominance bit....

SNOOPY


Thxs for the reply... yeah I had a suspicion about that...that's a problem in our trade..eh? Too much information and the human mind tries to compensate by only absorbing fragments one considers important to what you are trying to do at that specific time. Unfortunately this mental process creates bias which I'm aware of....It's an investor weakness which sneaks up on you and take control of your investment decisions...eh?
However Snoopy.. I've learnt, relearnt and refreshed a lot of stuff these past few days ...erased away a few biases due to distorted memories which is all good.....thxs to you and other posters on ST.+ MVT who probably unintentionally pushed me to refresh my FA knowledge.

Not sure if you had 2 degrees in mind you you made your 'laws of marginal return' remark Hoop.

No not at all...My thinking was applying a part of Business theory actually...
.....I thought about the Laws of marginal return (LOMR )which is, when in a going concern situation the company tries to expand production by employing more people..Telecom at its listing in the late 1980's? had about 3000 employees, and with technological advances e.g automation LORM can become adverse to a company as workers jobs descriptions change and they tend get in each others way causing them to find alternative and often less productive work rather than being laid off..If it is not addressed correctly very low productive"activity trap" job positions can be created as a result...I suspect the old Telecom may have allowed this problem to develop. Not sure about the new Telecom but restructuring is usually helps to rectify and create a more meaner leaner efficient company...That's in theory.
I think telecom has about 8000 employees now??? ....Interesting thing about Sparky's post is that perhaps the new Telecom has addressed some of these adverse affecting LOPM issues...Sounds good news in theory but in practice investors will not be willing to push up the share price until they see the results occurring on that bottom line...eh?

[NZSilver]

Nice little run today, glad to sneak in at 221 a couple of days ago. Seems to be a bit up and down at the moment, any reasoning?

[RazorX]

Yes... I managed to get in at 220 on the day it went down to 218 so quite happy about that. Maybe testing the support/resistance levels? (Thats my TA side saying that)

[Major von Tempsky]

I would suggest that McDunk and Hoop buy into the coming 2Degrees float - it has yet to make a profit and is desperate for more capital.
And yes Hoop, your memory is failing you (try a fish oil capsule a day to stave off Alzheimers) - it was I who referred to Buffettology, not Craic if you look back.
I must say what a pleasure it is to read Snoopy's posts, thoughtful, considered, articulate, analytical and unbiassed. I always look forward to reading a Snoopy post on anything when I see it.

[JMKC]

MvT - please give us 1 reason as to why you think TEL would be in any way attractive to Warren Buffett.
-ve earnings growth
dividends going backwards
commoditised product
There are 3 strikes right there.

You could argue that management having been terrible has now turned the corner somewhat but I'm not sure that would move the dial for him.

[Hoop]

I would suggest that McDunk and Hoop buy into the coming 2Degrees float - it has yet to make a profit and is desperate for more capital.
And yes Hoop, your memory is failing you (try a fish oil capsule a day to stave off Alzheimers) - it was I who referred to Buffettology, not Craic if you look back.
I must say what a pleasure it is to read Snoopy's posts, thoughtful, considered, articulate, analytical and unbiassed. I always look forward to reading a Snoopy post on anything when I see it.

Thank you for your "expert" advice re 2 Degrees..I will add it to my "expert advices awaiting further consideration" pile..... Hmmm...that will happen when I remember where I put that pile...

[Major von Tempsky]

Usually there is a bit of a lift to TEL as it closes in on its announcement and the international shorters and currency speculators start to get squeezed by the high gross dividend yield, playing chicken with the dividend yield. Be interesting to see when this starts and how far it goes this year...

[RazorX]

By the time they upgrade the Hold to Buy, those who bought at the last dip will be looking to sell as it reaches a peak. Looking good For TEL though.

[Corporate]

any idea how they got to the 10.1% dividend yeild?

[Silverlight]

any idea how they got to the 10.1% dividend yeild?

17 cents DPS forecasted for 2014 financial year, off 18.1 cents EPS. Does not leave much room for disappointment.

[GR8DAY]

......apparantly tahts TELs POTENTIAL divi Corporate. ??

Dont know where they get a divi for CNU (chorus) of greater than this either? ANZ detail shows current divi for CNU at 5.18%???

[fish]

......apparantly tahts TELs POTENTIAL divi Corporate. ??

Dont know where they get a divi for CNU (chorus) of greater than this either? ANZ detail shows current divi for CNU at 5.18%???
please dont rely on luck.
Easiest way is to type into google-;chorus dividend"
you will find anz has underestimated the likely dividend-counting imputation credits it is well over 10%

The standard of financial reporting is abysmal
.last years dividend was 5% at todays price- but based only on a 7 month period-and then we had imputation credits on top Earlier this week i bought lots chorus at 2.81

[mccollr]

Telecom Corporation of New Zealand (NZX: TEL - Gross Dividend Yield is 11.293%)













Fundamental
P/E 4.410
EPS $0.536
NTA $0.388
Shares Issued 1,816,941,522
Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited (Telecom) is a supplier of telecommunications and information, communications and technology (ICT) services in New Zealand and Australia. Telecom provides a range of telecommunications and ICT products and services, including local, national, international and telephone services; mobile services, data, broadband and Internet services; information technology (IT) consulting, implementation and procurement, equipment sales, and installation services. The Company’s portfolio of IT services includes cloud computing services, managed IT services, IT outsourcing, IT software and hardware procurement, and professional services to assist organizations with business and technology investments.
For the fiscal year ended 30 June 2012, Telecom Corp of New Zealand revenues decreased 9% to NZ$4.58B. Net income before extraordinary items totaled NZ$309M vs. loss of NZ$81M. Revenues reflect AAPT segment decrease of 26% to NZ$618M, Wholesale & International segment decrease of 18% to NZ$620M, Gen-I segment decrease of 5% to NZ$1.28B, Australian Operations segment decrease of 28% to NZ$694M, Other Operations segment decrease of 26% to NZ$213M.

[craic]

Regular trips between 200cps and 270 cps over the last two or three years. Thistime I am going to sit it out until, and if, it reaches 260 and then sell and hang on to the cash until it drops below 215 cps. I tried it before and couldn't keep my nerve - if I can, it,s almost the price of a ne car in the difference.

[Major von Tempsky]

"MvT - please give us 1 reason as to why you think TEL would be in any way attractive to Warren Buffett.
-ve earnings growth
dividends going backwards
commoditised product".

Sorry JKMC, I didn't notice the above until earlier today, although most of it has already been answered by other commentators.
(a) -ve earnings growth. Industry analysts have been noting that TEL is vastly overstocked with persons employed compared to other players in the industry. Simon Moutter is busy examining this and will produce a plan later this year. Also, that's rather hard to get a complete handle on with the demerger and the sell-off of the retail consumers part of AAPT in Australia. Best to watch earnings per share in future.

(b) dividends going backwards. When earnings go forwards so will dividends.

(c) commoditised product. Several comments - several parts of TEL's operations cannot be regarded as commoditised - GenI, the IT development and sales by TEL, the Southern Cross cable, some of the other players in the industry repackage and sell TEL products and services .....
Telecom is a very strong brand, not just in NZ but it seems most advanced Western countries have a strong Telecom however they may spell it. As the overall biggest player TEL can afford to get the best and brightest specialists not just technically but marketing, management, and connections with big players overseas.
Also Telecoms are still a utility and WB likes utilities and so do most of US investors. Have a look at the P/Es of Telecom companies listed in the US and you'll find that most of them have very much lower P/Es than TEL.
Finally, Warren takes the long view and so do I - might be worth discussing again in say two and half years time at the earliest :-)

[craic]

Craic, I suspect you could do that twice a year with TEL!

Looks like the off - are we on the way back up to the 250's or 260's or maybe better? TEL pattern has been to improve through the week and drop points on a Friday. I was getting quit paranoid about this pattern and wondering if the major stakeholders, the big Australian banks were maybe dropping a bit of stock late on a friday to keep the price downand maintain their golden egg. But that's just bourbon and paranoia after watching the story of Danny Greene and the Cleveland Mafia on the box tonight. Looking to scrape enough out of the climb to finance a trip to KL and Penang and the Cameron highlands later this year.

[Major von Tempsky]

I note (from the Telecom Investor site - they don't seem to have announced via Direct Broking Stock Exchange announcements) that HI results will come out on Friday Feb 22 2013.

[Joshuatree]

Its a good feeling buying in that "downtrend" alright and backing myself for a change @$2.15 and up. Now if Sparky's Smoky Teasers re Telecom doing so well crystalize there maybe some icing on top .

[troyvdh]

I understand from media reports that TEL were not initially responding to requests to explain todays "muckups"...sad but none the less a reality to see TEL reinforcing its "ugly" impression to the NZ public.

[biker]

To be fair, it's a hacking problem that Yahoo control, not Telecom. I know that its only Telecom that people see for billing purposes but I doubt there will be long term resentment towards Telecom over this.

The resentment may well be towards @xtra.co.nz, unless Telecom get their spinners into action.
I have had enough of Telecom/Yahoo and will now change my email address. Should have done it when I ditched Telecom as my ISP some time ago.

[gv1]

Telecom is much better than vodafone. Vodafone charges are extreme. Last year my neighbour who is 93, (who lived by herself) did not have dial tone on her home phone. Asked me for help, had a look and rang 123 from my cell(without realising that I was with vodafone), cost me $50. Later when I received the bill from vodafone, I rang telecom...they advised me its very expansive.. I should look at changing providers. I was paying 88c a minute. By the way Telecom refunded me for helping the community etc. I changed providers last year.....much happy, cost wise.

[Major von Tempsky]

Vodafone have been relatively unsuccessful in Australia which may lead to the eventual unexpected sudden evacuation of their NZ position....

The "muck-ups" only existed for those who were caught by an old trick that was worked on hotmail a year or two ago. An email arrives saying "you haven't been using your email account much or at all recently please log-in through this box to validate your account". In the case of hotmail they then emailed all the contacts saying "Drongo has had his cards/money stolen overseas please send money!".
In the case of Yahoo/Xtra they just sent spam about how you can make heaps of money working from home.

I took Telecom's advice (although I see now I didn't need to) to change my Yahoo/Xtra password although I had not clicked on the scam box.
After changing the password you then have to alter it when a box comes up on your Outlook Express and also click on Save and Bob's your uncle.

[The Grinch]

What's with this recent downward run? It's gone from 2.40+ back to under 2.20 in less than two weeks??? Info leakage on next fridays half year report? or are some of the off shore boys pulling out? Surely this can't be because of the recent Yahoo incident. Tempted to pick some up.

[Major von Tempsky]

Its very odd that both TEL and CNU should go down as one feeds off the other as seen in Simon Moutter's piece in the paper today attacking the CNU review because it makes TEL's inputs more expensive. CNU goes down, TEL should go up and vice versa.
It confirms my growing suspicion that the NZX movements are not analytical in nature but emotional/psychological.
In addition most TEL shares are held overseas and its used as a surrogate for NZ dollar plays - although recently FBU seems to be taking more of this burden.
There was also a recent comment somewhere that the NZX is mostly driven by overnight news and rumours, it has an extremely short term focus.
However it is now only 7 days from the next TEL announcement so we shall see some more income/dividend/bottom feeders coming in shortly...

[The Grinch]

Right, a few offshores pulling money out on the expectation that the recent rise and touch to 85c might come back a bit and the CNU review lowering potential TEL profits and then media attention re Yahoo does come together to create some downward pressure. Thanks MvT. Moosie what makes you think it'll be a drop?

[Felonius]

I am tempted to buy now at about $2.17 but am hesitating for the following reason. New CEOs ie. Simon Moutter are inclined to include all the bad news in their first set of accounts to "clear the decks". For this reason some investors (eg. David McEwen) have a policy of automatically selling when a new CEO is appointed.
Is this a valid reason to hesitate ?

[Hoop]

If it keeps heading lower I say you could buy it at bottom today and sell tomorrow on a possible bounce if you have enough cash, appears to be support around $2.15.

yep...support is there..


You keep the score Hoop i will keep the Divis. .Hope your hoop is at regulation height:)

OK....the score is........... TA=2 .....and now we are back to the 4th Jan situation once again.................. deja vu...eh
U reckon it'll bounce this time like last time??

[Joshuatree]

Touche ,Hoop ,ive been expecting you:). Havnt a clue what ,right now and not banking on Sparkys Smoky Hot Gossip either. What dddoes your chart see? Just hoping for a reasonable report.cheers JT

[GR8DAY]

.......at the current price Telecom is returning approximately 3x the bank deposit rate.......WHY WOULDNT YOU BUY NOW???

[sharer]

...
However it is now only 7 days from the next TEL announcement so we shall see some more income/dividend/bottom feeders coming in shortly...

.. mmmm .. thinking about joining the queue (again) ..

[Silverlight]

I am tempted to buy now at about $2.17 but am hesitating for the following reason. New CEOs ie. Simon Moutter are inclined to include all the bad news in their first set of accounts to "clear the decks". For this reason some investors (eg. David McEwen) have a policy of automatically selling when a new CEO is appointed.
Is this a valid reason to hesitate ?

David McEwen touts investment outperformance but could not invest his way out of a paper bag... maybe a bit harsh, but honestly, creating a rule to sell your stock just because the CEO is changing without prejudice is retarded.

[Silverlight]

David McEwen touts investment outperformance but could not invest his way out of a paper bag... maybe a bit harsh, but honestly, creating a rule to sell your stock just because the CEO is changing without prejudice is retarded.

Sorry Another Off topic post, but publicists like David McEwen who pretend to be investment specilaists really annoy me.

He says on his website "our strategies have enabled our clients to achieve returns that have substantially outperformed equivalent investment markets". He goes on to say our "concise weekly format keeps clients up to date with the ever-changing sharemarket while striving to make market-beating recommendations based on David's 9 Key Criteria of Company Excellence and a unique combination of investment strategies."

Really David? If that is true you must have the performance to prove it?

Yup David shows his returns versus the NZX10 and the ASX All Ords Capital (no dividends included). His "outperformance" below.



Market
Since Dec 2001
P.a.


NZ Watchlist
76.1%
5.3%


NZX10 Index
28.8%
2.3%







AU Watchlist
98.4%
6.4%


ASX All Ords Capital
51.8%
3.9%



But Hang on, what if we compare David's performance with benchmarks most people actually use, like the NZX50 and the ASX200 & ASX50?




Market
Since Dec 2001
P.a.


NZ Watchlist
76.1%
5.3%


NZX10 Index
28.8%
2.3%


NZX50 Index
119.3%
7.4%







AU Watchlist
98.4%
6.4%


ASX All Ords Capital
51.8%
3.9%


ASX 50 Index
212.1%
10.9%


ASX 200 Index
209.0%
10.8%




Oh no, David has actually underperformed the NZX market by over 40% and the Australian market by over 100% in the past 10 years... wow... what a great track record, glad I followed his 9 "golden" rules :t_down:


End Rant

[GR8DAY]

.........time will only tell on that score,...........still the cheaper they become that percentage return may well stay around that figure. If the net divy was minus 20% it's still an exceptional return!

[craic]

There are always those who need "expert" advice. That is why Agony Aunts can make a good living out of a newspaper column that simply wastes paper. How many people pay out for medical advise for their sore arse when all that's wrong is the amount of time they spend sitting on it?

[NZSilver]

Haha well said Craic and Snapiti

[Joshuatree]

4/1/13 My div guestimate 18c tops.

[troyvdh]

woof woof woofwoof....gnarl...gnarl....woof.............woof

[troyvdh]

I suppose I should elaborate...its my belief (not factually based) that TEL has monumentally and brazenly screwed the NZ public for years...please let us not forget that MS Gatting told a parlimentary commitee that should "unbundling" occur then many funds would loose money......I believe that this is on public record....I personally have no problem with folk making money....but hey...paying someone 7 mill....who goes fly fishing kitted out with about $2k of clothing...is a good ad....I remain adement that TEL is trully an "ugly" company......cheers....

[Joshuatree]

woof woof woofwoof....gnarl...gnarl....woof.............woof

Translated "With 2 million dogs in NZ when are Telecom going to offer a Bone Phone with 5 MeatyMega Bites, .....all we want is a plan mw=an",

[troyvdh]

you do not get it do you,,,,Im not commenting about profitabality....its more about screwing the NZ public...."historian"....what on earth are you talking about...you thinks it will be more profitable......what the hell does that mean......how old are you...what do you hold on the share MKT....cheers..

[Major von Tempsky]

No wonder Troyvdh has so many crashes - he only drives with reference to his distorted rear vision mirrors. Have a look at his performance over the last couple of years in the competition ;-)

He's also strangely obsessed....despite not owning any TEL shares he just can't keep off the TEL thread....its like an alcoholic addiction....

[Joshuatree]

PS i dont actually know how many dogs there are;..... but they do want the ability to text.... a bark only goes a few blocks and its getting harder to roam these days.

[Joshuatree]

I like that , It aint over yet Hoop , delete that score card.cheers

[Joshuatree]

" If the next report (coming up very soon) is good, be prepared for a breakout!" ..... Don't need to read entrails for that obvious statement.:p

4335[/QUOTE]

[GR8DAY]

" If the next report (coming up very soon) is good, be prepared for a breakout!" ..... Don't need to read entrails for that obvious statement.:p

4335[/QUOTE]

........well put JOSHUATREE!!

[GR8DAY]

........hope your right tho Moose, the "GUTOMETER" is saying the same thing......kicking myself now I didnt buy more around that low just the other day!

[Joshuatree]

Pretty hard picking/kicking(your own) bottoms ,nearology. Heres hoping it is good and a decent div maintained. All those smart phone take-ups a balance somewhat to any mkt share dip maybe. If telecom was /is a dinosaur id call it Eddie.

[BIRMANBOY]

So James Joyce has resurrected his "stream of conciousness" and is channelling though you???. You may have a clear idea there buts its sort of struggling to be released coherently (to me anyhow). Whats "nearology" and who/what is "eddie"?
Pretty hard picking/kicking(your own) bottoms ,nearology. Heres hoping it is good and a decent div maintained. All those smart phone take-ups a balance somewhat to any mkt share dip maybe. If telecom was /is a dinosaur id call it Eddie.

[Joshuatree]

nearology;:laugh: kicking your own bum . Eddie ,as in Steady but im ahead of my self.:cool:

[Joshuatree]

telecom is buying a new submarine cable , auck to sydney sharing costs with vodaphne and telstra.Less than $60 mill all up atp.Mmmmmh

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok..well may I suggest you slow down so you can catch up with yourself thereby allowing us older participants the benefit of saving our remaining brain cells for soduku etc.
nearology;:laugh: kicking your own bum . Eddie ,as in Steady but im ahead of my self.:cool:

[Joshuatree]

I dont want to be like you B, but some days i am unfort , esp memory wise and today im excited yes because im well enough to hold down a coffee , (i think). Any which way laughter is the best med, lets laugh together and apart .Off for my fix. cheers mate Ps love the James Joyce bit , thanks

[BIRMANBOY]

Enjoy your coffee and good moments. Its interesting to me that TEL from 2008 through to now has experienced a real cyclical SP. If you look at 5 yr chart there has been a lot of movement but has been between 1.84 lowest to 2.70 highest. If you draw a rough line between the highs and lows I see the avg price as being 2.43 plus or minus.. So at current price of 2.26 it would seem to be a safe buy. I have been buying and holding this periodically for approx 4 years and dont worry too much about SP. When cash is avail and price is under "my moving average" I buy. The good thing is the dividends have been consistantly good and generous. Every now and then I have to slap myself to stop the greed saying sell for the cap gain...but has been worth holding.
I dont want to be like you B, but some days i am unfort , esp memory wise and today im excited yes because im well enough to hold down a coffee , (i think). Any which way laughter is the best med, lets laugh together and apart .Off for my fix. cheers mate Ps love the James Joyce bit , thanks

[Major von Tempsky]

Well, the result looks ok to me, profit up 3.7%, mobile connections up, broadband connections up and a big shake-out of labour costs coming.
Dividends good as always - time for the sharemarket to rate TEL on the same basis as FBU, scope for doubling the price....

[Major von Tempsky]

FBU p/e 31.4, HLG p/e 15.1, TEL p/e 4.1 ....actually, have a look at the sharetables in the newspapers (I looked at today's Press) and you'll find that TEL has a much lower p/e than any other listed NZ company....and yet TEL's earnings will go up in the future.

As I said a few posts back the NZX is not analytical but emotional/psychological and driven by "fashion" and momentum investing.

[BIRMANBOY]

The only way it will make $4 is if all you bleeding traders stop buying and selling it and let it sit for a while.. talk about death by a thousand cuts. This is one of the few "sure bets" to trade and make money..or has been for the last 4/5 years anyway. I'm convinced there are hundreds/thousands? of avaricious funds/investors out there buying 100,000 shares at a time and just waiting for a decent move....and looking at the charts you can see they usually dont have to wait long...case in point yesterday 2.20 today 2.29 100,000 shares thats 9000 profit less fees in 24 hours.
I do agree with this statement, but are you leaving something out with that P/E ratio? It's extremely low!

As I said a few posts back TEL was consolidating in a tight wedge shape and this, along with the new cable being built to Oz, should be the catalyst for a major breakout. Still can't see $4 anytime soon though!

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok so thats 9 cents...but its a start.:laugh:
I will trade it next week just for you Birman ;)

[BIRMANBOY]

You should get a part time job as analyst withe the NZX Sparky. 4.3 did sound low but who would have though the NZX could get it wrong.
Looking at the P/E ratios for other large "utility/retailer" type companies on the NZX (data from the NZX pages)

VCT: P/E = 13.5, and a yield of 7.1% (with regulation)
TPW: P/E = 18.7, and a yield of 6.9% (largely w/o regulation)
CEN: P/E = 18.1, and a yield of 6.2% (largely w/o regulation)

So TEL is on a P/E of approx 4.12 on the NZX website, which is obviously a bit befuddled and based on earnings from the demerger.

However, if we look at the recent 1H2013 earnings, and add that with the 2H2012 earnings, we get EPS of 8.4cps + 9cps, or roughly 17.4cps.

Current price of TEL is $2.29, so taking their hybrid 2012/2012 2H+1H result, they have a P/E of 13.2.

Given that Vector's profits are at the mercy of the Commerce Commission, and Telecom, like Trustpower and Contact, are not, then I would argue TEL deserves a P/E higher than Vector, but not as high as TPW and CEN who are executing well and delivering results. TEL is still in the middle of a strategic review, and are only starting to show signs of turning around mobile numbers and improving data.

So should they be on a hybrid P/E of 14, maybe 15? Or a price of $2.43 to $2.61?

[BIRMANBOY]

Reuters by name but rooters by nature?
NZX is usually out of date. Reuters is by far the worst...

[BIRMANBOY]

Would certainly boost participation in the NZX....I would be keen to try but with my track record I'd be giving refunds.
I've said it before, I'm a rooter for Moutter.

(And that's rooting in the North American sense - eg, someone to cheer him on, rather than any desire to copulate towards investment wealth. Though if this is possible I'd be happy to learn more. Can any chartists advise?)

[Major von Tempsky]

I think that you will find, that with this result, over the next few days, the brokers will be issuing revised rather more optimistic assessments of TEL, with BUY recommendations....

[BIRMANBOY]

Thats so harsh Sparky....they are just being "cautious" until they can buy in first and test the waters...then the buy will be so much more effective....for the punters of course.
I agree with more optimistic assessments, though they may not go as far as "BUY". They will use their halfway house of "accumulate" I suspect.

No sense issuing "BUY" until they have the punters buying in on the last 10-15% of share price growth..... or am I just too cynical?

[craic]

Because the payout is unsustainable ... ;)

Which part of the payout is unsustainable/

[Joshuatree]

Heehee, and Hoop whereabouts have you convieniently "mislaid" the score card.