TEL (Telecom NZ Ltd)

[Major von Tempsky]

Looks like the pendulum is swinging back to TEL - $46 mill turnover in TEL and up 3; $25mill in turnover in FBU and down 2....

[NZSilver]

Hi,

I was wondering if someone could please help me with regards to div's, say I had 1000 TEL shares to round off the numbers, how would I calculate what I will get in the bank? My income tax bracket is 33% and im on a salary (not sure if you need that bit?), I still dont 100% understand imputation.

any help would be much appreciated

Thanks

[NZSilver]

Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


13 Mar 2013
Interim
8.000c
1.059c
2.333c
5 Apr 2013
NZD

[Snoopy]

Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


13 Mar 2013
Interim
8.000c
1.059c
2.333c
5 Apr 2013
NZD



A few years ago it would have been easy: Own 1000 shares. Dividend 8cps. => 0.08 x 1000 = $80.00 in your bank account.

However, if the Telecom dividend is fully imputed, they will only be paying tax at 28c in the dollar. If you have registered your tax rate at 33c in the dollar, then IRD will deduct the difference ( 33c-28c=5c ) in the dollar as withholding tax. Now 5c in the dollar on $80 means they will send you a cheque for $76, a withholding tax credit of $4 and an imputation credit of $23.33. You claim both the $4 and the $23.33 as tax paid in the appropriate place in your tax return.

SNOOPY

[777]

You are forgetting that the 2.333 is on the grossed up amount.

.08+.02333=.10333.
.10333*.67=.0692311
.0692311*1000shares=69.23

IMHO of course.

[Hoop]

At the request of Major Von Tempsky this post has been removed.





http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TelecomLogo.jpg

[Major von Tempsky]

This chart stuff is useless moronic mumbo jumbo disguised as something "technical".

Just ask yourself the basic commonsense question - how could a chart made before TEL released its result possibly anticipate what the result would be?

Warren Buffett and brokers can be quoted as saying they never use "technical charting".

Finito. Keep that rubbish off this thread, its getting in the way of good, fundamental value analysis.
I'm sorry if you wasted $800 on buying the software, you should have bought some HLG instead.

[macduffy]

That's bit extreme, MvT.

Charting has a Place in sharetrading - and after all, this is the "Sharetrader" forum! We don't have to follow every blip up and down but informed analysis can also provide insights for timing the buys and sells of longterm portfolios. Plenty of room for both FA and TA approaches to investing, IMO, Just wish I'd read Phaedrus' posts before I started 40 - odd years ago. Not that either he or Sharetrader were around then, of course!

[Aaron]

This chart stuff is useless moronic mumbo jumbo disguised as something "technical".

Just ask yourself the basic commonsense question - how could a chart made before TEL released its result possibly anticipate what the result would be?

Warren Buffett and brokers can be quoted as saying they never use "technical charting".

Finito. Keep that rubbish off this thread, its getting in the way of good, fundamental value analysis.
I'm sorry if you wasted $800 on buying the software, you should have bought some HLG instead.

Does anyone else think this comment is ironic coming from someone who recently started a thread "where have all the share punters gone". And yes MVT I don't contribute any worthwhile analysis, either FA or TA. Your negativity on this site could put off more sensitive people though rather than encourage them to put forward their view.

[BIRMANBOY]

Just as well you aint "sensitive" then isnt it. MVT, as well as you and every other Tom ,Dick and HArriet has a right to say what they want... Whether you agree with it is immaterial. You did what you felt was right and called him on it..and a good point you made. Negativity and Positivity are totally dependant on who is making the "judgement" however and therefore are to be taken with a pinch of salt. MVT can be an ornery old fart occasionally (as can we all) however he is knowledgable and passionate about his TEL holdings and his posts even if appearing to be negative to "sensitive" souls are mostly worthy of reading. Not that he needs me to stick up for him at all. Sensitive souls should stick to their aroma-theraphy and whale recordings. If you want to succeed in shares and investing analytical thought, a firm plan and a decent set of cohones is usefull. Get stuck in, listen, learn and find your own way after all is what it takes to get ahead.
Does anyone else think this comment is ironic coming from someone who recently started a thread "where have all the share punters gone". And yes MVT I don't contribute any worthwhile analysis, either FA or TA. Your negativity on this site could put off more sensitive people though rather than encourage them to put forward their view.

[winner69]

Laid we ever work out how much nzsilver is going to get in his bank from his 1000 shares

All too hard is it .... Maybe silver will tell us when he gets his money

[Aaron]

Laid we ever work out how much nzsilver is going to get in his bank from his 1000 shares

All too hard is it .... Maybe silver will tell us when he gets his money

I would agree with 777's $69.23 post#2288

[Hoop]

This chart stuff is useless moronic mumbo jumbo disguised as something "technical".

Just ask yourself the basic commonsense question - how could a chart made before TEL released its result possibly anticipate what the result would be?

Warren Buffett and brokers can be quoted as saying they never use "technical charting".

Finito. Keep that rubbish off this thread, its getting in the way of good, fundamental value analysis.
I'm sorry if you wasted $800 on buying the software, you should have bought some HLG instead.

MVT I have removed my post #2289.
yep....it wasn't warm and fuzzy was it......we can't have that can we......

Less time here on ST for a while... methinks

[Joshuatree]

Hoop im sure i speak for many.I appreciate your informed posting it enriches sharetrader with diversity and even i see charting is an important tool in investing.Dont let the tyranny of bullies get to you, we always have to fight off narrow mindedness and controlfreaks. You cant rescue them but informing is the way to go in your (in my exp) good natured way.If someone lives down a well and one threw dowm a sideways model of the telecom chart would they use it climb out........,.some would, some wouldnt ,hearing any other voice would be a threat to their reality and tunnel like ego .keep sharing your knowledge and may your voice be heard Hoop.

[BIRMANBOY]

Dont be so sensitive....just because some people (me included) dont agree with you and your "mumbo jumbo" doesnt mean you dont have a right to challenge other ways of doing things. Criticism can be good..helps us examine the correctness or stability of our systems. The only thing worse than harsh/incorrect/excessive/or even justified criticism is giving up because of it.
MVT I have removed my post #2289.
yep....it wasn't warm and fuzzy was it......we can't have that can we......

Less time here on ST for a while... methinks

[Major von Tempsky]

Aloysius (ha! ha! ha!) also known as Belge,

There are direct quotes further back in the threads from both Buffett and brokers saying they never use "technical analysis".

Your technique is an old one, used by Goebbels and the Soviet Union - its known as the big (bare-faced) lie.

[Joshuatree]

MVT the only one who sounds like a wannabe Goebells is you it so obvious with your dictatorial style.

[macduffy]

Hoop im sure i speak for many.I appreciate your informed posting it enriches sharetrader with diversity and even i see charting is an important tool in investing.Dont let the tyranny of bullies get to you we always have to fight off narrow mindedness and controlfreaks. You cant rescue them but informing is the way to go in your (in my exp) good natured way.If someone lives down a well and one threw dowm a sideways model of the telecom chart would they use it climb out........,.some would, some wouldnt ,hearing any other voice would be a threat to there reality and tunnell like ego .keep sharing your knowledge and mayyour voice be heard Hoop.��

Hear, hear!

Keep up your good work, Hoop!

Unfortunately, the tone of a lot of "contributions" to this site has deteriorated in recent times with a lot of overly aggressive, repetitive and dogmatic posts abounding, many of which don't "contribute" much, if anything, in terms of advancing arguments or theories. Yours, on the other hand, are real contributions to the various threads and are much appreciated.

:)

[Hoop]

Thxs for the support Guys
No I haven't got all huffy over MVT...
It was my decision to pull my post...some threads such as TEL and AIRNZ seem more sensitive to opposing investment diciplines than others..There are other treads I can post on. I'm mindful but sometimes forget to show respect to those few who have invested their hard earned money in a single very large "safe" high yielding stock so they can enjoy a better quality of life in their later years. They feel stressed when a TA merchant posts warning bells I can understand that...There are others out there that believe in the self-fulfilling prophecy idea ..so sounding off warnings can upset these people as well....I can't make everyone happy but try to find an exceptable balance ...I do enjoy bantering with some people...eh Joshatree... trading off tongue and cheek stuff with our differing disciplines..just hope that others understand it is all in jest and that we both sometimes learn something about each others disciplines during those times....

I am spending far too much time on the computer. It feels like the damn thing is taking over my life atm... Turning it off and going outside to smell the roses as opposed to writing a 3rd post I think is healthy alternative.

[Hoop]

Buy a 49er, hoop ... when not trying to right the blastard thing you'll have a smile from ear-to-ear and your maniacal laughter, fueled by the ongoing adrenelin rushes, will be swollowed up by the wind. Even for a guy like me whose on the wrong side of half a century and is as cynical as hell can can't wipe the smile off. If a 49er's too tame, many of the 18s are looking for crew and there's more people to blame or share the fun with with things go wrong.

I've got the Hamilton lake :(...but there's a yacht club there....however my success there would be limited to scaring the ducks....mind you that could entertaining to a few.

Speaking about entertaining, I wonder what various forms Telecom is going to morph into.... Quote...."Jolie has a proven track record at translating strategy into execution and will be a welcome addition to our leadership team as we accelerate our strategic shift to become a future-oriented, competitive provider of communication, entertainment and IT services delivered over our networks and the Cloud," chief executive Simon Moutter said in welcoming Hodson. ref NZH 1st March 2013 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10868566)

[macduffy]

From FN Arena:

UBS rates TEL as Sell (5) - The broker notes consumer markets are an increasingly important share price driver for Telecom. The problem is, competition is hotting up and Telecom is starting to bleed a little share in some markets.
Now Vodafone has launched it 4G mobile services in NZ and given the better tech, TEL is now having to play catch up. Meanwhile, 2 Degrees continues to drive pricing down in postpaid. The broker points this out to illustrate how much re-investment it will take to win back market share. In the meantime, subsidies and increased price competitiveness will keep a lid on revenues. Sell call maintained. Price target stays at NZ$2.05.
Current Price is $1.88. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 14.18 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: -0.4
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of - 76.4%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.Current consensus price target is N/A.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

[BIRMANBOY]

So lets see now...how do brokerage houses make a living and improve profitability? Oh thats right they rely on punters taking their advice and buying and selling. And how can they pump that up? OH, how about putting out buy and sell media notes...hmmm can it be co-incidence? They just love it when they have some news to precipitate some action. Not just TEL of course...applies to all shares. I'm not convinced micro management of portfolios does anything productive for the investors but it sure as hell makes the brokers happy.
From FN Arena:

UBS rates TEL as Sell (5) - The broker notes consumer markets are an increasingly important share price driver for Telecom. The problem is, competition is hotting up and Telecom is starting to bleed a little share in some markets.
Now Vodafone has launched it 4G mobile services in NZ and given the better tech, TEL is now having to play catch up. Meanwhile, 2 Degrees continues to drive pricing down in postpaid. The broker points this out to illustrate how much re-investment it will take to win back market share. In the meantime, subsidies and increased price competitiveness will keep a lid on revenues. Sell call maintained. Price target stays at NZ$2.05.
Current Price is $1.88. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY13 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 14.18 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values. Market Sentiment: -0.4
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of - 76.4%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.Current consensus price target is N/A.Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

[Silverlight]

It depends what you mean by micro-management? If you mean buying and selling based on undervalued or overvalued basis?

If so, do you follow your advice, and just buy the lowest fee index fund, knowing that markets over the long term rise, and then forget about it and go fishing? Or whatever your preferred hobby is?

[BIRMANBOY]

Never buy funds only buy quality Co's at lowest poss price, add to in dips...for dividend yield only....never sell...simple.
It depends what you mean by micro-management? If you mean buying and selling based on undervalued or overvalued basis?

If so, do you follow your advice, and just buy the lowest fee index fund, knowing that markets over the long term rise, and then forget about it and go fishing? Or whatever your preferred hobby is?

[macduffy]

So lets see now...how do brokerage houses make a living and improve profitability? Oh thats right they rely on punters taking their advice and buying and selling

Well, of course they do. But part of having an informed market is knowing who's recommending what to buy and sell. Doesn't mean to say we have to agree or act on such recommendations!

:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

Agree...just reminding myself and others of the full picture. They are not motivated with the primary goal of making us money but rather advancing themselves. It pays to be mindfull of any degree of self-interest and this aspect of brokerage houses is very rarely mentioned.
Well, of course they do. But part of having an informed market is knowing who's recommending what to buy and sell. Doesn't mean to say we have to agree or act on such recommendations!

:cool:

[Major von Tempsky]

More impartial and analytical observers have noted that you need to payout at least $1,000 for 4G stuff and it's not obvious that you get anything that will transform your life...

It's more of a reflection on UBS not doing its homework than on TEL...

[Zaphod]

Clearly those "impartial and analytical observers" don't know what 4G's capabilities are ... Expect there'll be plenty of app developers rushing to buy ...

Agreed. I'm sure there were people who said the same thing when the first ADSL services were rolled out. 4G provides a massive improvement in bandwidth capability over 3G technology. HD Videoconferencing, streaming movies to mobile devices, or even providing high-speed wireless connectivity for desktop PC's will all benefit massively from a 4G rollout.

[Major von Tempsky]

On the other hand if whatever Belge said was true (can't be bothered reading it yet) and what Zaphod said was true, then the price of TEL would have declined precipitously.
It didn't, so there must be a fault in your fine flurry of words about 4G being the best thing since the invention of the carrier pigeon.

And if 4G is true then someone else can come along and put up some phoney 5G, 6G....1,000G.

And they'll turn out to make about as much difference as Windows 8 over Windows 7.

(and then, because Belge is such a vindictive spiteful person you may be sure that what he wrote was not designed to inform and help people as to try and score points off Major von Tempsky, so I'd take anything he wrote in response to me with a large dose of salt.)

[Zaphod]

On the other hand if whatever Belge said was true (can't be bothered reading it yet) and what Zaphod said was true, then the price of TEL would have declined precipitously.
It didn't, so there must be a fault in your fine flurry of words about 4G being the best thing since the invention of the carrier pigeon.

And if 4G is true then someone else can come along and put up some phoney 5G, 6G....1,000G.

And they'll turn out to make about as much difference as Windows 8 over Windows 7.


It's an arms race, and he with the smallest armament loses. If TEL had announced they were not committed to a 4G network while the other two telco's were busy announcing they were, then TEL's shareprice would drop precipitously.

TEL have committed to 4G, but VFNZ has beaten them to it initially. We know in the long term this small head start is going to make very little difference, especially when the XT network has far greater back-haul capacity (on average) form the towers than VFNZ's.

[BIRMANBOY]

Who has the time to keep up with all the new technology? Obviously people in the industry and those who have a vested interest or need to have the latest/smallest/fastest ego add on available. However I have this feeling that a vast majority of people, who do the bulk of the buying, will keep using old devices/setups for as long as possible and wait for markets to settle and options become clearer. TEL has always been good at either leading the charge or following on when it looked good. This capacity and its market size and position will make it very hard for competitors to get any sizeable or lasting impact. Used to be that the arms race was all about having the largest....now its the smallest..Times change.
It's an arms race, and he with the smallest armament loses. If TEL had announced they were not committed to a 4G network while the other two telco's were busy announcing they were, then TEL's shareprice would drop precipitously.

TEL have committed to 4G, but VFNZ has beaten them to it initially. We know in the long term this small head start is going to make very little difference, especially when the XT network has far greater back-haul capacity (on average) form the towers than VFNZ's.

[macduffy]

I'm not so sure, Birmanboy.

I see a lot of young people who must have the latest, fastest, whatever, electronic toy and are prepared to delay or sacrifice other spending to do so. I'm certainly not one of those :eek2: but think we make a mistake in assuming that we might be in the majority in this regard.

Cheers

[BIRMANBOY]

You could well be right scottish one. Hopefully they will all sign up for TEL and buy Tel products. In that case I will me than happy to eat the haggis.:)
I'm not so sure, Birmanboy.

I see a lot of young people who must have the latest, fastest, whatever, electronic toy and are prepared to delay or sacrifice other spending to do so. I'm certainly not one of those :eek2: but think we make a mistake in assuming that we might be in the majority in this regard.

Cheers

[Hoop]

MVT I have removed my post #2289.
yep....it wasn't warm and fuzzy was it......we can't have that can we......

Less time here on ST for a while... methinks


Dont be so sensitive....just because some people (me included) dont agree with you and your "mumbo jumbo" doesnt mean you dont have a right to challenge other ways of doing things. Criticism can be good..helps us examine the correctness or stability of our systems. The only thing worse than harsh/incorrect/excessive/or even justified criticism is giving up because of it.

I've changed my mind...

Old removed post is back :)
.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .......................................

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Hoop http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=393527#post393527)
yep...support is there..



OK....the score is........... TA=2 .....and now we are back to the 4th Jan situation once again.................. deja vu...eh
U reckon it'll bounce this time like last time??
From 15th February...The support Moosie was saying was at $2.15...and it seemed then TEL was ranged bound hence the question.."U reckon it'll bounce this time like last time??"
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Joshuatree http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=394489#post394489)
Heehee, and Hoop whereabouts have you convieniently "mislaid" the score card.
Nah...just being discreet ;)

Did you Buy at the bottom of the Trading range channel and sold at the top which gave you 20c/share profit...If not you score is still 0...The good news is you'll get a 1 score when TEL goes ex-div 13th March...
Hmmm just might be time to repeat the trade before the ex div date - 3days... and maybe... just maybe... grab the div as well.....:D.....

Did I hear someone say its going to rise up from here and the TA indicators look good and I ignored them on the chart....Yes indicators often look good on a rising price...I didn't add the indicators on the chart below this time because they flicked lower and I'm not sure if the "fat fingered" 2.81 trade had an effect on it....For the optimists...watch the orange line..if TEL price bounces off this support line it greatly increases the chance of a breakout above 2.40ish wedge

For the rest of us.....At this moment TEL has just failed its breakout attempt...again!!..

Comparing the TEL chart with that of the NZX50 which is in a steep Bull market uptrend ....it would make you want to cry:( wouldn't it.
Here comes 2.20 again ...deja vu ?

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/Tel01032013.png

Last edited by Hoop (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/posthistory.php?p=395771); 02-03-2013 at 10:12 PM.

[Hoop]

Did I hear someone say its going to rise up from here and the TA indicators look good and I ignored them on the chart....Yes indicators often look good on a rising price...I didn't add the indicators on the chart below this time because they flicked lower and I'm not sure if the "fat fingered" 2.81 trade had an effect on it....For the optimists...watch the orange line..if TEL price bounces off this support line it greatly increases the chance of a breakout above 2.40ish wedge


For the rest of us.....At this moment TEL has just failed its breakout attempt...again!!..


Update
Every optimist has their day......Telecom may be attempting a bullish breakout:)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL08032013.png

[Joshuatree]

COOL Man COOL all round:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

OMG...you were right (grinding teeth in background). Ok whats the prognosis now?
[/INDENT]
Update
Every optimist has their day......Telecom may be attempting a bullish breakout:)

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL08032013.png

[Poet]

Telecom announces change in focus for Gen-i Australia12:09pm, 13 Mar 2013 | GENERAL
STOCK EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT
13 March 2013

TELECOM ANNOUNCES CHANGE IN FOCUS FOR GEN-I AUSTRALIA
Telecom said today it has undertaken a strategic review of the Australian operations of its ICT services unit, Gen-i, which will result in a significant change in focus for Gen-i Australia.
Gen-i Australia will now concentrate on supporting large corporate customers (based either in New Zealand or Australia) with specific trans-Tasman ICT services requirements. It will be exiting from other customer activities which fall outside this refined business focus.
As a result of these changes, total staff numbers at Gen-i Australia will fall from approximately 180 to about 60 employees. In addition to redundancy costs, it is anticipated there will be other restructuring costs associated with this action.
Where feasible, Gen-i Australia will look to transfer some customer activities across to AAPT, a wholly-owned Telecom subsidiary and Australia's largest business-only telecommunications network provider.
As previously announced, Telecom group expects to recognise a material one-off charge in the second half of the current financial year (FY13), as it implements a strategic shift to a future-oriented, competitive provider of communication, entertainment and IT services delivered over its networks and the Cloud. Costs associated with Gen-i Australia will be included in this charge, which is excluded from the group's stated guidance for FY13 of adjusted EBITDA in the range $1,040 - $1,060 million.
Tim Miles, Gen-i CEO, commented: "Gen-i Australia was originally set up about 13 years ago to serve the trans-Tasman needs of existing corporate customers. Over the years, it has broadened its activities within the Australian ICT services market - but we have never had the scale to compete effectively in these other market segments.
"We believe the time is right to return to Gen-i Australia's core purpose and renew our focus on trans-Tasman ICT services - an area where we have a strong track record of success, proven capabilities, an excellent roster of corporate customers, and the necessary scale to compete effectively.
"The trans-Tasman market has good growth potential as the New Zealand and Australian economies grow closer together, facilitated by improved data connectivity. Nowadays, around 40% of New Zealand's international internet traffic is between Australia and New Zealand, versus just 10% in 2000, and the construction of data centres is a growth industry in both countries. This trend is set to continue with initiatives such as the proposed Tasman Global Access telecommunications cable, in which Telecom intends to be a key investor."

A good start to the restructuring exercise - this should take $15 to $20 million off costs and add to bottom line

[biker]

Market sure doesn't like it!

Ex 8c Dividend

[craic]

Market sure doesn't like it!

Rubbish! The share went ex-dividend on an 8cps div. overnight.

[Hoop]

OMG...you were right (grinding teeth in background). Ok whats the prognosis now?

So where to now ..eh?

Things to forget about as it is of no importance here (for this post only)..1 ...going ex-div today creating short term noise.. 2.... Recalculating the adjustment for the TEL + CNU is irrevelant in this case ..you'll just have to trust me on this one.
================================================== ================================================== ================
Things to remember (for this post)...TA can not predict the future happening. TA reflects past and present group investor behaviour (sentiment). Using TA to predict a future outcome is based on the science that group human behaviour and animal herd intinctive patterns show a repeative predictable behavioural trend...therefore chances of a specific happening can be calculated in as a risk factor.
================================================== ================================================== =================
My opinion only and is classified as a rant:).....It amazes me how many unskilled people (Mum & Dad investors) invest through the the lure of high yield rates, or are guided by analysts and various other so-called people to buy TEL shares..TEL movements are more complicated than most in the NZX index and needs skilled investors to succeed efficiently. A good dose of education involving Market behaviour /stategies / Patterns / FA /TA/ microeconomics/business & economic theory is needed...
TEL is a poor performer so why not just allow Newbies to opt to buy something that performs a lot better and simplier..try RYM SUM MFT etc.
================================================== ================================================== ================

TEL is a complicated share performer so TA chart below has been modify to suit my purposes, yes the chart is complicated too...My question to myself is...If I have Telecom shares at the moment what strategy should I be using?

First thing first TEL has been operating in a bull cycle...the assumption is that I have TEL shares and I'm using the very simple textbook Bull market Strategy ..that of Buy and Hold for a indefinite term ...The objective with TEL at this moment is the decision whether to accumulate (average up) or not...Also the performance of TEL is showing weakness and risk is rising. Remember Bull cycles signify low risk high reward environments.

A TA objective during weakness after a period of bull cycle run is to try and determine whether there is investor concern that the cycle is ending (?) or whether its just another corrective phase within its bull cycle.....

Using shorter term charts showing various TA methods can be employed,,,,,My previous chart post I used the pattern behaviour method ..e.g wedge breaks are one such method that can help confirm the status of the cycle.

The break out of the wedge is a positive signal that the bull cycle is still operating..so buy and hold strategy is still the favourite investment option...going ex -div is short term noise... but I will be watchful where this trend leads to.


What are the Bear Market Strategies ?....ref: Harry D Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies (http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/finance_and_marketing/stock_market/Harry%20D%20Schultz%20-%20Bear%20Market%20Investing%20Strategies.pdf)

Why not just use FA during a bear market cycle?? FA is very reliable with good information ..except it becomes less informative durng a bear cycle period due to an increase amount of misinformation/uniformation of data...plus heighten media attention to false prophets
Quote...H,D,Schultz
THE FUNDAMENTAL APPROACH

But, if you rely only on fundamentals, you
never
know whether you have all the
necessary facts to make an informed judgment. Some are purposely hidden,
withheld, or delayed. Others just may not come to your attention. You have to
read everything in sight to make sure that you are not missing a ‘‘revised
estimate of earnings,’’ or a news story about the death of the board
chairman, or a new government contract, or news about the order backlog
or a contract cancellation.
And if you use the Internet for research, false rumors are intentionally
circulated to enable criminals to capitalize on the reaction to rumors.

Hope this helps someone...enjoy
Hoop

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TELlongrange12032013.png

[tosspot]

Telecom is a very much short term quick profit stock for me. It swings on a band of about 20c and you just have to get in at the bottom of the band. I would never hold TEL for very long

[GR8DAY]

[QUOTE=moosie_900;397524]Down 3.2% now and still falling (after dividend taken off of course). Still rubbish???[/QUOTE


].............so when shud we start buying back in oh great Young One??.............just after you have I guess??? LOL

[GR8DAY]

Lol no, I wouldn't touch TEL with a 10 foot pole. I just hate being called out when the other person is clearly wrong and it is assumed that I am wrong because I am young...


.......there's a trading opportunity in nearly every stock Moose so I thought you might be into TEL for this reason alone? What are those charts saying? (ive never bothered myself)

[craic]

Moosie, I have held TEL shares for several years. Someday I will calculate the exact return over that period but the dividend return is over 8% per annum and that is as good as I can be bothered chasing. When they dropped chorus last year, I took the money down to a dealer and bought myself a new car. Now the price should have dropped by an equal amount but it didn't for any length of time. Have a look at the 3year chart on the Direct Broking site and you will see that the price varies in cycles from below 220 cps to over 260cps on a very regular cycle. If you have enough shares and steel balls you can make a reasonable living from that fact alone. I sold a tiny fraction of my TEL shares late yesterday to fund my extravagances and an overseas trip later in the year. I have passed three-quarters of a century so I don't have to worry about money,or sex, much these days.

[Cool Bear]

So where to now ..eh?

Things to forget about as it is of no importance here (for this post only)..1 ...going ex-div today creating short term noise.. 2.... Recalculating the adjustment for the TEL + CNU is irrevelant in this case ..you'll just have to trust me on this one.
================================================== ================================================== ================
Things to remember (for this post)...TA can not predict the future happening. TA reflects past and present group investor behaviour (sentiment). Using TA to predict a future outcome is based on the science that group human behaviour and animal herd intinctive patterns show a repeative predictable behavioural trend...therefore chances of a specific happening can be calculated in as a risk factor.
================================================== ================================================== =================
My opinion only and is classified as a rant:).....It amazes me how many unskilled people (Mum & Dad investors) invest through the the lure of high yield rates, or are guided by analysts and various other so-called people to buy TEL shares..TEL movements are more complicated than most in the NZX index and needs skilled investors to succeed efficiently. A good dose of education involving Market behaviour /stategies / Patterns / FA /TA/ microeconomics/business & economic theory is needed...
TEL is a poor performer so why not just allow Newbies to opt to buy something that performs a lot better and simplier..try RYM SUM MFT etc.
================================================== ================================================== ================

TEL is a complicated share performer so TA chart below has been modify to suit my purposes, yes the chart is complicated too...My question to myself is...If I have Telecom shares at the moment what strategy should I be using?

First thing first TEL has been operating in a bull cycle...the assumption is that I have TEL shares and I'm using the very simple textbook Bull market Strategy ..that of Buy and Hold for a indefinite term ...The objective with TEL at this moment is the decision whether to accumulate (average up) or not...Also the performance of TEL is showing weakness and risk is rising. Remember Bull cycles signify low risk high reward environments.

A TA objective during weakness after a period of bull cycle run is to try and determine whether there is investor concern that the cycle is ending (?) or whether its just another corrective phase within its bull cycle.....

Using shorter term charts showing various TA methods can be employed,,,,,My previous chart post I used the pattern behaviour method ..e.g wedge breaks are one such method that can help confirm the status of the cycle.

The break out of the wedge is a positive signal that the bull cycle is still operating..so buy and hold strategy is still the favourite investment option...going ex -div is short term noise... but I will be watchful where this trend leads to.


What are the Bear Market Strategies ?....ref: Harry D Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies (http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/finance_and_marketing/stock_market/Harry%20D%20Schultz%20-%20Bear%20Market%20Investing%20Strategies.pdf)

Why not just use FA during a bear market cycle?? FA is very reliable with good information ..except it becomes less informative durng a bear cycle period due to an increase amount of misinformation/uniformation of data...plus heighten media attention to false prophets
Quote...H,D,Schultz
THE FUNDAMENTAL APPROACH

But, if you rely only on fundamentals, you
never
know whether you have all the
necessary facts to make an informed judgment. Some are purposely hidden,
withheld, or delayed. Others just may not come to your attention. You have to
read everything in sight to make sure that you are not missing a ‘‘revised
estimate of earnings,’’ or a news story about the death of the board
chairman, or a new government contract, or news about the order backlog
or a contract cancellation.
And if you use the Internet for research, false rumors are intentionally
circulated to enable criminals to capitalize on the reaction to rumors.

Hope this helps someone...enjoy
Hoop

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TELlongrange12032013.png

Another informative post. Many thanks. Wish I have read it before I bought some an hour ago. But maybe I have bought anyway. Just a better informed decision even though it was a small trade. I do not have much time to learn or practise TA, I do lean more towards FA but I appreciated that entry and exit points makes a world of difference to a portfolio performance.

Thanks again, always enjoyed your post and had been reading some of Phaedrus old posts. Wonder how he is going on his tour - maybe he is watching for the colour of the smoke in Rome. He certainly has the time now.

[BIRMANBOY]

So Moosie there you have it...Buy TEL and you can say goodbye to all those worrisome and problematic issues we are faced with. Its not only a solid producer of dividends it also soothes the savage soul...the moose can retire to green and stress free pastures. PS agree with Craic about making a living from the swings in TEL. Next year I/m going to do some trading.
Moosie, I have held TEL shares for several years. Someday I will calculate the exact return over that period but the dividend return is over 8% per annum and that is as good as I can be bothered chasing. When they dropped chorus last year, I took the money down to a dealer and bought myself a new car. Now the price should have dropped by an equal amount but it didn't for any length of time. Have a look at the 3year chart on the Direct Broking site and you will see that the price varies in cycles from below 220 cps to over 260cps on a very regular cycle. If you have enough shares and steel balls you can make a reasonable living from that fact alone. I sold a tiny fraction of my TEL shares late yesterday to fund my extravagances and an overseas trip later in the year. I have passed three-quarters of a century so I don't have to worry about money,or sex, much these days.

[BIRMANBOY]

Thanks for your interesting post. And the time it must have taken.
So where to now ..eh?

Things to forget about as it is of no importance here (for this post only)..1 ...going ex-div today creating short term noise.. 2.... Recalculating the adjustment for the TEL + CNU is irrevelant in this case ..you'll just have to trust me on this one.
================================================== ================================================== ================
Things to remember (for this post)...TA can not predict the future happening. TA reflects past and present group investor behaviour (sentiment). Using TA to predict a future outcome is based on the science that group human behaviour and animal herd intinctive patterns show a repeative predictable behavioural trend...therefore chances of a specific happening can be calculated in as a risk factor.
================================================== ================================================== =================
My opinion only and is classified as a rant:).....It amazes me how many unskilled people (Mum & Dad investors) invest through the the lure of high yield rates, or are guided by analysts and various other so-called people to buy TEL shares..TEL movements are more complicated than most in the NZX index and needs skilled investors to succeed efficiently. A good dose of education involving Market behaviour /stategies / Patterns / FA /TA/ microeconomics/business & economic theory is needed...
TEL is a poor performer so why not just allow Newbies to opt to buy something that performs a lot better and simplier..try RYM SUM MFT etc.
================================================== ================================================== ================

TEL is a complicated share performer so TA chart below has been modify to suit my purposes, yes the chart is complicated too...My question to myself is...If I have Telecom shares at the moment what strategy should I be using?

First thing first TEL has been operating in a bull cycle...the assumption is that I have TEL shares and I'm using the very simple textbook Bull market Strategy ..that of Buy and Hold for a indefinite term ...The objective with TEL at this moment is the decision whether to accumulate (average up) or not...Also the performance of TEL is showing weakness and risk is rising. Remember Bull cycles signify low risk high reward environments.

A TA objective during weakness after a period of bull cycle run is to try and determine whether there is investor concern that the cycle is ending (?) or whether its just another corrective phase within its bull cycle.....

Using shorter term charts showing various TA methods can be employed,,,,,My previous chart post I used the pattern behaviour method ..e.g wedge breaks are one such method that can help confirm the status of the cycle.

The break out of the wedge is a positive signal that the bull cycle is still operating..so buy and hold strategy is still the favourite investment option...going ex -div is short term noise... but I will be watchful where this trend leads to.


What are the Bear Market Strategies ?....ref: Harry D Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies (http://cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/finance_and_marketing/stock_market/Harry%20D%20Schultz%20-%20Bear%20Market%20Investing%20Strategies.pdf)

Why not just use FA during a bear market cycle?? FA is very reliable with good information ..except it becomes less informative durng a bear cycle period due to an increase amount of misinformation/uniformation of data...plus heighten media attention to false prophets
Quote...H,D,Schultz
THE FUNDAMENTAL APPROACH

But, if you rely only on fundamentals, you
never
know whether you have all the
necessary facts to make an informed judgment. Some are purposely hidden,
withheld, or delayed. Others just may not come to your attention. You have to
read everything in sight to make sure that you are not missing a ‘‘revised
estimate of earnings,’’ or a news story about the death of the board
chairman, or a new government contract, or news about the order backlog
or a contract cancellation.
And if you use the Internet for research, false rumors are intentionally
circulated to enable criminals to capitalize on the reaction to rumors.

Hope this helps someone...enjoy
Hoop

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TELlongrange12032013.png

[Major von Tempsky]

Passing on from the horrors of alternative quack medicine above (which reaped a singular lack of response and interest) I give the below interesting article from today's Sydney Morning Herald re the fuss over Vodafone's launch of alleged 4G (or was it 3.67 repeating?)


http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/what-to-do-with-the-worlds-fastest-internet-20130314-2g22s.html

What to do with the world's fastest internet

Date March 18, 2013 (762 reading now)





Farhad Manjoo

Google Fibre is totally awesome, but it's also completely unnecessary.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/digital-life/digital-life-news/what-to-do-with-the-worlds-fastest-internet-20130314-2g22s.html#ixzz2NrMz7373

[Zaphod]

Is 1Gbps fibre connection overkill? At the moment unless you're running a data centre at your pemesis then yes it is.
Compare that to the NZ UFB fibre roll-out which is providing 0.1Gbps/0.05Gbps (up/down link) speeds and LTE also with 0.1Gbps/0.05Gbps (up/down link).

[winner69]

Hope you guys celebrating with 1500 jobs out if 7000 to go

Starting from the hop ...or maybe the middle ...the chief honcho says ....even at 100k a year that's 150 mill extra to hand out in divies

Heck what were these 1500 doing all day if not needed ....keeping track of their share portfolio and other stuff


Love what capitalist says on NBR
#7 by Capitalist 14 hours ago
Bugger those people, I just want more profits. I don't care about people or the environment. So long as i can have my five fancy houses and collection of cars and a nice big launch I don't really care if I have to keep 1000 people destitute and living on the poverty line...

The capitalist we know from the good old days?

Give that man mounter a medal

[tosspot]

Hope you guys celebrating with 1500 jobs out if 7000 to go

Starting from the hop ...or maybe the middle ...the chief honcho says ....even at 100k a year that's 150 mill extra to hand out in divies

Heck what were these 1500 doing all day if not needed ....keeping track of their share portfolio and other stuff


Love what capitalist says on NBR
#7 by Capitalist 14 hours ago
Bugger those people, I just want more profits. I don't care about people or the environment. So long as i can have my five fancy houses and collection of cars and a nice big launch I don't really care if I have to keep 1000 people destitute and living on the poverty line...

The capitalist we know from the good old days?

Give that man mounter a medal

far out I hope that comment was taking the piss, its never good to see people lose there jobs. moneys not the most important thing in the world. I think its sad theres people out there like that who care more about paper than others

[Major von Tempsky]

Hear! Hear! I was astounded to see TEL's price fall on news it would be cutting up to 1,500 jobs. It only underlines my view that the NZX is not a rational market and that TEL is vastly underpriced while FBU is vastly overpriced!

[NZSilver]

Possibly not good for the comapny in the near term, restructuring/resignations ect can come at huge costs, however in the longterm it will reduce running costs. I sold out before ex-div for 2.43 to free up some capital, also yahoo email saga has not been great for the comapany. However still a good comapny and the new CEO will make this an even better company, but I think there will be more neagtive pressure than positive pressure on shareprice over the next 6 month (so there will be a good oppurtunities to buy more TEL for the long term hold).

However I could be completely wrong, because after all this is the sharemarket we are talking about!

[winner69]

far out I hope that comment was taking the piss, its never good to see people lose there jobs. moneys not the most important thing in the world. I think its sad theres people out there like that who care more about paper than others

Jeez tosspot .....investors demand such action these days ....the 10 or so investors who matter

Growth has to happen else you die they say ....even it means getting rid of 1500 ....telecom not a charity you know

Greedy capitalists .... I see you at the next Occupy meeting eh to sort them out eh?

[winner69]

Tosspot

You should go this lecture / speech ....he's quite a clever guy for an academic economist

Speaks your language

http://www.massey.ac.nz/massey/about-massey/news/article.cfm?mnarticle_uuid=31633C3C-F9C4-CF70-B786-06287F349AAC

[tosspot]

Jeez tosspot .....investors demand such action these days ....the 10 or so investors who matter

Growth has to happen else you die they say ....even it means getting rid of 1500 ....telecom not a charity you know

Greedy capitalists .... I see you at the next Occupy meeting eh to sort them out eh?

No im not into any of that protesting stuff, Im a capitalist aswell just not an extreme one you need balance. I always look at situations objectively and weigh up both sides of an argument people need to put themselves in the shoes of the opposite before making judgements or decisions.

[Poet]

Yes rather bizarre that SP should fall when they have effectively just announced a $150m to $200m annual cost reduction. If they could get most of this cost saving through to the bottom line it should be worth $1 a share. I guess the market is concerned with the short term one off costs and I guess there's many a slip between cup and lip.

For me, I'm holding and will top up if it goes lower

[craic]

TEL is a holding/hedge/bank or whatever you like to call it for some overses investors who move their money around to scrape a cent or two here and there. Watch the trend before and after mid-day ( when USA wakes up) and particularly, late on friday afternoons when the price drops substantially, more often than not. It has this position because of its size which is large enough to cope with the large movements - other companies, particularly the smaller ones, cannot have enough shares available at around market to allow this. The major holders, the Australian banks simply sit back and enjoy the interest they get most of the time. The loss of jobs is a natural part of the growth of technology. I have a ute outside that is going in for service next week - I think that it is at least five years since the last service and if the bonnet is lifted twice in any year I would be surprised. We are in a new age.

[winner69]

Rejoice rejoice - it's not 1500 - it could be 2500 and the 100k average prob higher when you include benefits

So maybe that 150 million could be 300 million savings ....yippee

Can't put it better than capitalist yesterday - Bugger those people, I just want more profits. I don't care about people or the environment. So long as i can have my five fancy houses and collection of cars and a nice big launch I don't really care if I have to keep 1000 people destitute and living on the poverty line.


Sparky's hero Simon deserves at least a 20 mill bonus if he pulls this off

Tosspot - you read macdunks post on another thread about an uprising or something?

[winner69]

Tosspot ... when i next in Auckland i am going to this .... mifght challenge my thinking

http://www.tetuhi.org.nz/exhibitions/exhibitiondetails.php?id=127

NZ Herald had a review

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10873095

[tosspot]

Tosspot ... when i next in Auckland i am going to this .... mifght challenge my thinking

http://www.tetuhi.org.nz/exhibitions/exhibitiondetails.php?id=127

NZ Herald had a review

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=10873095

hah not sure if your serious, I wont be seems a bit extreme i sit in the middle.

[Major von Tempsky]

Who knows when Sleeping Beauty NZX will awake and discover the huge value in TEL particularly after the employee cost cuts....I shall hold and enjoy the highest gross diviodend yield on the market and I don't have to worry about timing it right to get back in and missing the turn.
It's ironic that all those who took specific and vindictive action against TEL are now braying the loudest about job cuts which are directly attributable to their policies. Who now remembers that NZ Rail employed over 21,000 and they all practically gone and no noises off from the TEL protesters....

[duncan macgregor]

MVT, The only problem is where will it all end?. The TEL share price over the years has spiraled down counteracting the big dividends along the way. The market share of the company is reducing equally as fast due to the competition. Year by year their position in the market is worsening simply because they are in a competetive market plus GOVT interferance. The problem I have is the arrogance at top level paying millions to the few at the top, while treating the people that actually work like a disposeable nappy. You simply cant treat educated people like that without repercussion. Its not like the old days when you stole everything they had and paid them with a blanket. There is no way in this world that I would buy a share in this company, regardless of dividends. We are all progressing into a very dangerous era. The French revolution springs to mind, dont think it cant or wont repeat its self even in little old NZ. History repeats we are heading into dangerous waters like it or not. How long before the GOVT is forced to steal your money from your bank account MVT to keep the system going?. Macdunk

[craic]

It won't end. There are plenty of jobs in IT. My son got one a week or two ago at 80g per annum and that was one of more than two or three offers - in this case from Chinese interests. This has been going for a while. When I was a kid I used to have to take horses down to the smithy's shop to get shod. Disease, in one form or another, is long overdue to effect a cull in the global population and antibiotics are starting to fail at a great rate.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic 80g is a pittance for IT worker 160G is common

[craic]

Craic 80g is a pittance for IT worker 160G is common

Google Average Salaries - and take a reality check.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic there all ways a large layer of Cr*p at the bottom that puts the average low & I thought you said your son was a top notcher not somebody straight out of UNI. 80grand that is less than Forty dollars an hour get real for in your words a top grade IT worker.

[craic]

I have two sons, one is a Senior Architect, Market Data Systems, Merril Lynch/Bank of America. He earns a lot more than your top figure. The other is self-employed in a consultancy on over your figures BUT is about to change to paid employment for a big international where he will start in excess of the figure he quoted to me with the sky as the limit. My eldest, a daughter owns and runs GOMODERN, look it up. There are huge amounts to be earned in the money markets but those dealers are not what I would call IT experts and they have a very short shelf life. My two in london could sell up and return here with seven digit numbers in their accounts but it will never happen. The one here, with much less, is probably better of in terms of lifestyle.

[winner69]

Craic .....you must be a very proud dad

[duncan macgregor]

Craic, You must not only be a proud dad but a good dad. I bet you pulled a few strings getting them to where they are today you crafty old bas*rd. Its not what they earn that counts its what happens to it after they earn it that counts. The one in NZ with the best lifestyle might end up richer than the others in the end. Macdunk

[Major von Tempsky]

And more to come after that no doubt, not that I'm opposing it.

[craic]

And the price goes up - now at 240cps. I wonder if there are folks out there who think that they buy today and get the dividend on friday - or maybe its a startled flock of investor geese who have just taken off from the hydro lakes and decided that TEL is calmer water with fewer shooters around?

[KJ]

Maybe it is seen as a good buy-reducing costs,improving profits,increasing divs.I am hoping that it was a good buy.

[KJ]

Moosie-of course the guidance has not changed for y/e 30 June as plans not yet implemented.In fact plan not out until May I think.Obviously the market looks ahead & folks will be thinking about y/e June 2014 & beyond just like it is doing for FBU & others.

[Major von Tempsky]

"Play the cycles on TEL. Now is not the time to buy!" Moosie 4th April 2013.
Just for the record, to look back in 6 months time, TEL was $2.37 when Moosie made his disconnected prediction.

I have a feeling that is going to become the Sharetrader Discussion Board equivalent of a few other famous quotes such as "There is only a market in the world for 4 computers!" :-)

[BIRMANBOY]

Moosie, you are looking at this with beer goggles...its pruning NOT slashing..big difference.
I'm thinking along the lines of capital gains, not dividends. so what magic is tel going to pull out that is going to make the sp rise then? I see a company slashing jobs and restructuring. never a good sign of growth...

[Lease]

Don't discount fibre uptake either. If Telecom offer the right package to customers, (and things are not quite there yet, still a work in progress with Chorus and Crown Fibre) then that could be a substantial growth path into the future.

It's hard for Telecom to grow substantially as NZ & Aussie telecommunication market has been(or nearly) saturated. In the future, these tele operators will have their own relatively stable customer base and unlikely to expand their business to a large degree. Like most other western nations, tele operators are viewed as utility stock which investors seek for income rather than capital appreciation.

[BIRMANBOY]

Rubbish..trying to predict what these operations will morph into is just wishfull thinking. Growth will be shifted into other areas or new technology. Nothing stays the same..especially hi-tech
It's hard for Telecom to grow substantially as NZ & Aussie telecommunication market has been(or nearly) saturated. In the future, these tele operators will have their own relatively stable customer base and unlikely to expand their business to a large degree. Like most other western nations, tele operators are viewed as utility stock which investors seek for income rather than capital appreciation.

[Poet]

Anyone else noticed the unusually large volumes going through over the last couple of weeks?

[Snow Leopard]

LOL ... The cynic would say otherwise in the hi-tech sector :)

"Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose"

Alphonse Karr, 1849


meilleurs voeux
Le Tigre de Papier

[troyvdh]

what amazes me is the apparent reluctance of those folk who believe in the "telecom story" to perhaps reflect on the fact that Telecom NZ is now in the "death throes" of existence.
TEL has been (in my view) a disgrace, profit at all costs, a nasty example of obscene perceived entitlement to screw the consumer (because of there dominace)... despite reality...and pay the "chiefs"...and many others ...how many being paid $100000 ...and gee ...in recent times have they not decided to discard many in that category..what a surprise...

[tim23]

I just like the yield available, profit at all costs suspect they are not alone in that - need to keep shareholders happy!

[craic]

And getting up to the point where I hit the sell button, sit back and wait for the drop, buy back in and take a few g's of profit. I agree with you Sparky, more than happy with the company as a customer.

[tosspot]

I will most likely drop below 2.25 by end of next week. thats when i start watching it. if it hits 2.20 illl buy in then should go back up to 2.35 - 2.40 within a week or 2. it goes between the 2.20 - 2.40 band and occasionally lower or higher. great thing about this stock is its very predictable and relatively volatile.

[craic]

Part of my holding is a trading block of 35,000 shares which can provide a reasonable profit on small changes. One-cent-per-share movement is worth $350 but I am inclined to look for a top of 250-60 at the moment with a bottom in the low 220's. That seems to happen about twice a year but taking full advantage often means a loss of dividend. So a maximum return of $9500 (0n a 30cps difference) less tax of maybe $3000 then dividend and fees would not be much more than the dividend alone.

[Zaphod]

Has anyone noted discussion of Gen-I's preference to return to a franchise model for regional centres? I note that a new franchisee has been appointed for a large previously Gne-I wholly owned/operated centre. Perhaps part of Moutter's new vision?

[winner69]

NBR has story about Forbsr having a new guru analyst to take over from road raged Guy. The new guy comes from Telecom ....one of their high flyers I believe

First report on TEL and he has the audacity to change their rating from hold to REDUCE

Based on inside knowledge or was this guy one of thousands to eventually go from TEL anyway but found himself a petty posh job anyway

So REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE is the message from Forbar

[BIRMANBOY]

I hope they are not paying him more than minimum wage..or maybe in this case ..youth rates.
NBR has story about Forbsr having a new guru analyst to take over from road raged Guy. The new guy comes from Telecom ....one of their high flyers I believe

First report on TEL and he has the audacity to change their rating from hold to REDUCE

Based on inside knowledge or was this guy one of thousands to eventually go from TEL anyway but found himself a petty posh job anyway

So REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE REDUCE is the message from Forbar

[winner69]

And you better believe people will follow Forbar! Just like PGW, can expect a good old fall from TEL now. Excellent, be a good time to buy in after the dust has cleared to play those cycles! :t_up:

I get it now ...forbar get their clients to sell ( or sell for them) and Forbar makes heaps ....and then rerate tel to a buy and Forbar makes heaps more .....as do all the other brokers on the other side of the trade

Isn't the world a silly place

[winner69]

I hope they are not paying him more than minimum wage..or maybe in this case ..youth rates.

You know he be paid zillions ..... Maybe not zillions but heaps anyway

[craic]

At the risk of looking and sounding like an idiot, I am holding on for a rise into the fifties. If it still looks healthy then I stay in. I am certainly not leaving at this stage. Like a boatie crossing a bar, you can ride the front of a wave and probably get dumped or stay high up on the back of the wave and get through but if you think you can sit on the top of the wave your'e a mug. One strategy I read year ago was to move up or down on three-day results - if a share drops three days in a row, get out - if a low share rises three days in a row get in but many of these ideas were formulated before computers and electronic dealing.

[bull....]

could go to 2.50 today so agree with craic:)

[Major von Tempsky]

Must be like that other guy further back on this thread who was a refugee from TEL's marketing dept and then got a job with a broker and started spouting abysmally ignorant stuff on Finance. Anyway looks like the market isn't taking any notice of either of them and no doubt their saved salaries will be contributing to my next dividend and TEL won't even notice they are gone and will be a leaner more efficient machine come June and afterwards.
I partly say this because I had the pleasure of sitting next to some TEL exec on a plane once and he spent his time marking stuff in a folder to forward to other people TEL "to keep them in the loop". You could tell he was really struggling to justify his existence in the organisation. Felt sorry for him. No doubt he is now struggling to justify his existence at some broker.

[winner69]

Must be like that other guy further back on this thread who was a refugee from TEL's marketing dept and then got a job with a broker and started spouting abysmally ignorant stuff on Finance. Anyway looks like the market isn't taking any notice of either of them and no doubt their saved salaries will be contributing to my next dividend and TEL won't even notice they are gone and will be a leaner more efficient machine come June and afterwards.
I partly say this because I had the pleasure of sitting next to some TEL exec on a plane once and he spent his time marking stuff in a folder to forward to other people TEL "to keep them in the loop". You could tell he was really struggling to justify his existence in the organisation. Felt sorry for him. No doubt he is now struggling to justify his existence at some broker.

You overlook that this exec was so so busy he had to work on the plane ....even after working so so hard in the lounge beforehand

Being an analyst for Forbar must. Be so easy compared to Telecom

[macduffy]

One strategy I read year ago was to move up or down on three-day results - if a share drops three days in a row, get out - if a low share rises three days in a row get in but many of these ideas were formulated before computers and electronic dealing.

That, coupled with taking note of volumes traded sounds very much like my limited TA skills in action, craic!

:)

[Jim]

And you better believe people will follow Forbar! Just like PGW, can expect a good old fall from TEL now. Excellent, be a good time to buy in after the dust has cleared to play those cycles! :t_up:

Consider Forbar advice strong buy to Feltex ??

[Hoop]

One strategy I read year ago was to move up or down on three-day results - if a share drops three days in a row, get out - if a low share rises three days in a row get in but many of these ideas were formulated before computers and electronic dealing.
That, coupled with taking note of volumes traded sounds very much like my limited TA skills in action, craic!

:)

the bullish 3 white soldiers

[BIRMANBOY]

Looking at the chart certainly appears to be a good time to sneak in. Yield is attractive and room for SP growth as long as they dont get nobbled by increasing installation expenditure...expected CAPEX of 70 to 100 million increase over original budget.
Sold TEL and bought CNU. It's not that I don't like TEL, I've made it clear I like Moutter and looked forward to his strategy for May 17. Could be a catalyst for TEL to improve.

It's just that at $2.65, I felt CNU was oversold and was on a 13.4% gross yield. That's value territory, in my books. Yield and value was enough to get me back into CNU after I sold out over the regulatory issues.

And as you know, I love my value plays.

[Snow Leopard]

Sold TEL and bought CNU. It's not that I don't like TEL, I've made it clear I like Moutter and looked forward to his strategy for May 17. Could be a catalyst for TEL to improve.

It's just that at $2.65, I felt CNU was oversold and was on a 13.4% gross yield. That's value territory, in my books. Yield and value was enough to get me back into CNU after I sold out over the regulatory issues.

And as you know, I love my value plays.

Well it is falling so fast when it hits something it will either bounce well or shatter.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[troyvdh]

Oh no surely not ....not NZ's must beloved and treasured company loved by so many....The Major will not ...I repeat not entertain such nonsense....indeed bah humbug... I shall do something about this in quick order and further more I find it quite intolerable that so many of you lowly folk should entertain such nonsense...oohhh such nonsense...

[craic]

Oh no surely not ....not NZ's must beloved and treasured company loved by so many....The Major will not ...I repeat not entertain such nonsense....indeed bah humbug... I shall do something about this in quick order and further more I find it quite intolerable that so many of you lowly folk should entertain such nonsense...oohhh such nonsense...
Your posts indicate an attitude to this share that would indicate that at some time you screwed up with TEL and now you are having difficulty living with yourself. The current price indicates a healthy position for our second biggest companies and one that provides a substantial part of my income and the income of many others at a rate far above all the financial institutions and most of the companies on the market. A few posts ago you ranted about the company being in its death throes - you sound a bit like the short fat Korean guy - ignore reality at every opportunity.

[BIRMANBOY]

Those magnificent co's in their UFT machines...they go up diddy up up, they go down diddy down down..up up down down flying around, those magnificent men(and women (PC)) in their flying machines. As long as Terry Thomas isnt at the wheel it will be up up and away soon.
Well it is falling so fast when it hits something it will either bounce well or shatter.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

[Major von Tempsky]

Maybe this is why Troyvdh is coming 136th out of 140 in the sharepicking contest with such great companies as CUE, THL and GEL ;-)

Usually when someone is as emotionally distraught about TEL as Troy is, you find with a little bit probing/comparing notes with someone who knows them that some connection of theirs works for the opposition - wife/secret mistress/lover, son, daughter, uncle aunt, nephew/neice, friend, ex classmate, fellow Free Mason & & ...works with Orcon, 2 Degrees, Vodafone, Telstra-Clear & &.
Come on Troy fess up or the truth wil eventually find you out....;-)

[craic]

Seems like, up up and away again. I only hope I have the courage of my convictions and can drop them on high and wait patiently for another low to get back in. 249cps at present and it seems to be a trend. I expected a lot of small sellers to drop the price as they headed for Mighty River Power but who knows

[Major von Tempsky]

Just looked back at Moosie's great prediction (as I shall do from time to time :-) ) on 4th Apr 2013 when Tel was $2.37.
Not bad on a falling market...

[BIRMANBOY]

Could be on the way to 2.70 again.

[craic]

The bulls ar running again - up to 265cps a minute ago and that was my trigger to sell but the current rate of climb suggests a bit of patience and a wait. There will be a bit of profit taking but wouldn't 275 or 285 cps be a nice return

[BIRMANBOY]

One of these days my friend...you'll bail and it will keep going up...never more to grace the low 2's..so is this the time? Are the Irish eyes to be smiling or will you be crying in your guiness?
The bulls ar running again - up to 265cps a minute ago and that was my trigger to sell but the current rate of climb suggests a bit of patience and a wait. There will be a bit of profit taking but wouldn't 275 or 285 cps be a nice return

[craic]

I just happen to be drinking Guinness as I read your post. Before that, today, I was at the RSA drinking Murphys. This is my preferred champagne. Tomorrow I will deliver three loads of firewood and the money I get will help me pay for the log splitter I bought yesterday. At 75 splitting axes are getting heavy but if I take $100g out of Tel I might be able to take some more of the overseas trips that my wife has planned for later this year - and next year and the year after. At least I don't have to save for my old age.

[Major von Tempsky]

I'm saving my ammo for another dig at Moosie and others who were suggesting range trading in the 2.20s for the rest of year :-)
Works well on my sharetrading picks for Paper Tigers competition too.

[BIRMANBOY]

Good on you..at the current rate of life expectancy 75 is the "old 60" ..you may have 20 years (or more in your case) left in you so dont spend it all on your "lifestyles of the rich and famous":D
I just happen to be drinking Guinness as I read your post. Before that, today, I was at the RSA drinking Murphys. This is my preferred champagne. Tomorrow I will deliver three loads of firewood and the money I get will help me pay for the log splitter I bought yesterday. At 75 splitting axes are getting heavy but if I take $100g out of Tel I might be able to take some more of the overseas trips that my wife has planned for later this year - and next year and the year after. At least I don't have to save for my old age.

[Poet]

Anyone else think that there is potential for a Telstra bid for Telecom now that the CNU split is out of the way.

Good low interest environment - Telstra's last bond issue was at 2.5%, it wouldn't be too bad a use of 2.5% money to buy TEL at a 10% yield

Unusually high volumes in TEL last few weeks

They can have mine at 3.20, maybe hold in there Craic

PS - note the delisting of the US ADRs as well, will make takeover simpler

[bull....]

they announce their strategy in may so this could have something to do with rise coupled with staff layoffs and nice div yield for those jap house wifes

[Major von Tempsky]

Nope, Telstra had to disappear from the scene as the part of the price of being allowed to sell Telstra-Clear to Vodafone.
But nothing to stop Telstra from bidding for TEL now :-)

[Snow Leopard]

I'm saving my ammo for another dig at Moosie and others who were suggesting range trading in the 2.20s for the rest of year :-)
Works well on my sharetrading picks for Paper Tigers competition too.

Markets and share prices have an habit of proving any prediction wrong in almost any time frame :(.
And yet we make our five picks for the year ahead :mellow:.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

I spent some time on this chart with pretty colours and a logo just for the Major as I know he will appreciate such artwork ;);).. TEL looking good so far ...huh Major?
..........but be careful...
TEL may hit its head on that orange bar and knock itself out...

Bugger the charts and think Buffet..eh Onwards and upwards ....Tally ho and all that .

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL23042013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL23042013.png.html)

[BIRMANBOY]

Can you change the orange to green? Might keep going then:). Always admire someone with the courage of their convictions...however Hoop in all fairness even a non chart user like me could say your prediction/analysis could be a high probability. However what if there is some unknown factor working behind the rise that none of us are privy to? Inherent problem is cant see if this is going to be outside of statistical probability until after the fact.
I spent some time on this chart with pretty colours and a logo just for the Major as I know he will appreciate such artwork ;);).. TEL looking good so far ...huh Major?
..........but be careful...
TEL may hit its head on that orange bar and knock itself out...

Bugger the charts and think Buffet..eh Onwards and upwards ....Tally ho and all that .

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL23042013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL23042013.png.html)

[Hoop]

Can you change the orange to green? Might keep going then:). Always admire someone with the courage of their convictions...however Hoop in all fairness even a non chart user like me could say your prediction/analysis could be a high probability. However what if there is some unknown factor working behind the rise that none of us are privy to? Inherent problem is cant see if this is going to be outside of statistical probability until after the fact.

Sure...orange to green it is.......I'm tempted to buy in now :)

Yes..correct... if a major event is happening behind the scenes that no-one knows about.. TA won't be of any help neither would FA
TA can't predict the future but it can indicate a probability of an outcome from analysing the outcome from a repeating same pattern in the past..its that old saying....History may not repeat but its does rhyme.

Charts and indicators are just a picture (snapshot) of that past group behaviour...as the behaviour is a variable affected by the surrounding environment the charts can show trends, cycles and it tolerance limits

The TEL chart below shows the GREEN BAR (as requested) :) a visual tolerance limit that the group feels comfortable with that 23rdTuesday environment.....Tommorrow all this could change with an unforeseen major event
but
...if no major event occurs (everyday market/media noise is rarely considered a major event) then the green bar becomes a problem for the TEL market and extra buyer pressure from somewhere is needed to jump that bar...

I trying to establish the State of the TEL market
In a bull market cycle investors are optimistic and will add to that buying pressure to break resistance levels..in a bear market the investor mood is pessimistic and they will become increasingly more uncomfortable as the price rises to the point were their tolerance level is exceeded and they will sell out.

It is important for a chartist to identify what cycle is in progress

Often the market depth shows these charted physcological points..hard to see with Telecom's high liquidity as influential buyers and sellers suddenly appear and disappear.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL23042013-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL23042013-1.png.html)

[Joshuatree]

Hoop would you sat TEL has technically broken out of its downtrend? To my untrained eye maybe the 4th of this month it did. Or are you saying it needs to break through the orange resistance bands before an uptrend is confirmed? cheers JT

[BIRMANBOY]

Thanks for that...collective sighs of relief LOL. Yes understand...Now someone needs to develop a method for analysing "chatter" on the airwaves. I'm sure the FBI has the ability..just have to re-direct resources from analysing potential threats to developing profit creating tools. .
Sure...orange to green it is.......I'm tempted to buy in now :)

Yes..correct... if a major event is happening behind the scenes that no-one knows about.. TA won't be of any help neither would FA
TA can't predict the future but it can indicate a probability of an outcome from analysing the outcome from a repeating same pattern in the past..its that old saying....History may not repeat but its does rhyme.

Charts and indicators are just a picture (snapshot) of that past group behaviour...as the behaviour is a variable affected by the surrounding environment the charts can show trends, cycles and it tolerance limits

The TEL chart below shows the GREEN BAR (as requested) :) a visual tolerance limit that the group feels comfortable with that 23rdTuesday environment.....Tommorrow all this could change with an unforeseen major event
but
...if no major event occurs (everyday market/media noise is rarely considered a major event) then the green bar becomes a problem for the TEL market and extra buyer pressure from somewhere is needed to jump that bar...

I trying to establish the State of the TEL market
In a bull market cycle investors are optimistic and will add to that buying pressure to break resistance levels..in a bear market the investor mood is pessimistic and they will become increasingly more uncomfortable as the price rises to the point were their tolerance level is exceeded and they will sell out.

It is important for a chartist to identify what cycle is in progress

Often the market depth shows these charted physcological points..hard to see with Telecom's high liquidity as influential buyers and sellers suddenly appear and disappear.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL23042013-1.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL23042013-1.png.html)

[BIRMANBOY]

I doubt we puny individuals here on ST are "moving markets " moosie. Whether we buy or sell collectivelly among us 100,000 TEL shares is nothing important to what is really happening out of sight. Depth is fine but many of the big movers usually dont show up until after the market closes. Understanding how a mouse moves wont help you if an elephant is in the room.
Starting here is a good start to the psychology game BIRMAN. Using depth and watching trends develop on the depth table are also very helpful ;)

[Lawt]

Ok, colour me green - but why does every site have a different yield for most every stock?
NBR mentioned 15% yield on TEL which woke me up. But when I check ASB, NZX and topyields they all appear to be at odds with each other.
There would appear (to me) to be rational explanation for some of it, but one thing I am having trouble with is finding methodologies that say ASB and NZX use as this would allow me to account for the differences.
I realise that I can do the research on yield and work it out for myself - but would be handy to have a ready reference.

[Hoop]

Hoop would you sat TEL has technically broken out of its downtrend? To my untrained eye maybe the 4th of this month it did. Or are you saying it needs to break through the orange resistance bands before an uptrend is confirmed? cheers JT

TEL in a short term uptrend...but its long term trend has stalled...If it can break through the green (orange) barrier it would signal that the long term up trend is still intact (cyclic bull market cycle) Buying in for the long term (buy and hold) during a Bull market cycle is very good strategy with low risk...

ATM buying in seems risky as a stalled trend could indicate a reversal back to a cyclic bear cycle ..buy and hold strategies are disastrous in a bear cycle especially buying in at the start of one.

I am posting using a "Patience and wait and see" game.... granted it gives you less reward but it comes with lower risk.......If you are convinced in your own mind that TEL is the turn around story of 2013 and you should buy in now, go for it...if you are right you make a greater reward and extra bragging rights and you can post me back and say I told you so...but this action does come at a higher risk.

Each individual has their own risk tolerance levels....Discover your own levels..don't use other people's levels as it will either make you a frustrated or a Nervous Nellie and they both make you prone to bad untimely knee jerk investment actions.
If you are an adrenalin junky then you will be dismissing my posts as rubbish and rightly so as it would not fit your investment style :)

Hope for great investing
cheers Hoop

[RazorX]

Nice chart there Hoop, and I agree with you about TEL having to break that resistance zone before being in an uptrend. I'd expect it to hit the zone, then retrace a bit for a breather and have another go at it. This would most likely be due to folks profit taking at the resistance zone.

(Disc there are two other scenarios: 1) It blows right through the zone without looking back, or 2) it bounces right off it and heads for 2.20 again.)

[macduffy]

Ok, colour me green - but why does every site have a different yield for most every stock?
NBR mentioned 15% yield on TEL which woke me up. But when I check ASB, NZX and topyields they all appear to be at odds with each other.
There would appear (to me) to be rational explanation for some of it, but one thing I am having trouble with is finding methodologies that say ASB and NZX use as this would allow me to account for the differences.
I realise that I can do the research on yield and work it out for myself - but would be handy to have a ready reference.

The short answer, Lawt, is that different commentators use either historical or forward numbers. If forward, they will also vary depending on the assumptions made. There's no substitute for making one's own guess - sorry, that should read "calculation". After all, profits have to be re-earned every year!

[craic]

The great thing about this game is that you can miss the high and go right back down again without any loss - as long as you don't sell. The dividends will still be there every six months and another high will come along, and the chartists will be able to give us another wonderous demonstration of the powers of hindsight.

[BIRMANBOY]

This is what I said earlier about most of the big rollers waiting and waiting until the last minute..look at the volume right on the bell (and afterwards) and thats just a small portion.


261.1
1,500,000
17:19
WA


260.6
50,000
17:18
IN


260
48,557
17:17
IN


261.2
1,100,000
17:17
WA


261.1
500,000
17:07
WA


261
498,611
17:03
SP


261
30,000
17:02
SP


261
319
17:02
SP


261
15,000
17:01
SP


261
50,000
16:59
SP


261
50,000
16:59



261
5,000
16:59



261
47,964
16:59



261
27,036
16:59



261
165,264
16:59

[stones]

Yes the wondrous powers of hindsight is a great weapon to have after you been put through the mill but TEL will always be in my PF

[Joshuatree]

Thanks Hoop. Appreciate your analisys ; i bought down to re $2.15 ( remember our sparring :)so am enjoying the ride and divs. TEL maybe plaaying a delayed catchup to Telstra.

[BlackCross]

I'm a new investor (ex-UK) in NZ shares and one of my major UK held ETFs is iShares DJ Asia/Pacific Select Dividend 30 (IAPD) - this ETFs largest holding is TEL:NZ (8% of ETF) - however, the mandate for the ETF to invest in any share is as follows ' ... offers exposure to the 30 highest dividend-paying stocks from developed countries in Asia/Pacific. Only companies are included that have a non-negative historical three-year dividend-per-share growth rate and an average dividend to earnings-per-share ratio of less than 85%. The index is weighted according to dividend yield.'


Now as I understand it TEL is about to reduce its dividend and presumably will have to be sold off by this ETF and various other ETFs with a similar mandate. iShares (IAPD) holds around 19 million others may account for a similar number. I just wonder how this will affect the price?

I hold TEL by the way.

[Major von Tempsky]

Some interesting comments. But first lets note the interesting pattern of trading (which doesn't seem to be remarked by the chartist boys? asleep at the wheel? deficient tools?), namely TEL opens weaker each day then as the trading from Australia kicks in about midday TEL recovers its lost ground and then some. Sometimes there is then a period of late weakness before even later trading overcomes that leaving a plus for the day. Right there's some hints for buying and selling which the chartists don't supply.

Geni in Australia? Looks like some more sensible tidying up moves by Simon Moutter which one can only applaud.

TEL will reduce its dividend? Authority/reference?
Is this speculation that the short term cost of cutting out the redundant layer of middle management at TEL (incl that ex TEL twit now at ForBar seemingly determined to wreak his revenge on TEL by giving bad advice), a heritage issue from its days as a Govt Dept/SOE, will cause a divvy cut? I and many others are long term investors and think TEL can manage its cash to overcome it. Even if there was a divvy cut because of this its worth it to put TEL in a much stronger long term competitive position. One wonders why Paul Reynolds/Theresa Gattung didn't identify this issue before and courageously tackle it.

[BIRMANBOY]

Even if it (TEL) reduces its dividend its still probably well above most other holdings div yields in your etf. NZ has one of the highest div yielding exchanges in the world. Sell off TEL and replace it with what??
I'm a new investor (ex-UK) in NZ shares and one of my major UK held ETFs is iShares DJ Asia/Pacific Select Dividend 30 (IAPD) - this ETFs largest holding is TEL:NZ (8% of ETF) - however, the mandate for the ETF to invest in any share is as follows ' ... offers exposure to the 30 highest dividend-paying stocks from developed countries in Asia/Pacific. Only companies are included that have a non-negative historical three-year dividend-per-share growth rate and an average dividend to earnings-per-share ratio of less than 85%. The index is weighted according to dividend yield.'


Now as I understand it TEL is about to reduce its dividend and presumably will have to be sold off by this ETF and various other ETFs with a similar mandate. iShares (IAPD) holds around 19 million others may account for a similar number. I just wonder how this will affect the price?

I hold TEL by the way.

[Hoop]

"...... namely TEL opens weaker each day then as the trading from Australia kicks in about midday TEL recovers its lost ground and then some. Sometimes there is then a period of late weakness before even later trading overcomes that leaving a plus for the day......"

Hmmmmm...I see.... so leaving a plus everyday you say that the TEL shares have been constantly increasing their value over these last few years....It seems those chartists are telling porkies huh?

[RazorX]

Hmmmmm...I see.... so leaving a plus everyday you say that the TEL shares have been constantly increasing their value over these last few years....It seems those chartists are telling porkies huh?

No - tis not telling porkies! :p Look it goes up, then down, then sideways, then up - all in one year.

4468

(It's actaully still down quite a bit from 5 years ago.)

[BlackCross]

Even if it (TEL) reduces its dividend its still probably well above most other holdings div yields in your etf. NZ has one of the highest div yielding exchanges in the world. Sell off TEL and replace it with what??

Yes, I agree it's a great yield but if it falls outside the strict and automatic mandate of the ETF/Index it would be out.

[Snow Leopard]

...Now as I understand it TEL is about to reduce its dividend and presumably will have to be sold off by this ETF and various other ETFs with a similar mandate. iShares (IAPD) holds around 19 million others may account for a similar number. I just wonder how this will affect the price?

I hold TEL by the way.

The TQADV (Tiger Qualified Average Daily Volume) is currently over 12M on the NZX and over 4M on the ASX.

So should this come to pass it would hardly be noticed.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BIRMANBOY]

HUh...what else in their portfolio is producing that sort of yield? Do tell. With a mandate to cull high yielders..if I was an owner of your ETF I'd be placing several calls to the Chairman/women and looking to sell out of the ETF as soon as possible. But then thats why I dont invest in pooled funds..they get reduced to lowest common denominator.
Even if it (TEL) reduces its dividend its still probably well above most other holdings div yields in your etf. NZ has one of the highest div yielding exchanges in the world. Sell off TEL and replace it with what??

Yes, I agree it's a great yield but if it falls outside the strict and automatic mandate of the ETF/Index it would be out.

[Major von Tempsky]

Interesting announcement by TEL this morning :-)
Seems like they're on the acquisition trail and very promising...

[Major von Tempsky]

In a rising tide all boats go up....

http://money.msn.co.nz/businessnews/national/8650104/mobile-data-demand-doubles

[troyvdh]

....woof.....woof...;gnarl.....gnarl......sniff... sniff....gnarl.....woof...

[craic]

....woof.....woof...;gnarl.....gnarl......sniff... sniff....gnarl.....woof...
How many rubbish messages like this did it take you to get to the rank of senior member?

[RazorX]

....woof.....woof...;gnarl.....gnarl......sniff... sniff....gnarl.....woof...

On a forum that I moderate this would be regarded as spam, the post would be deleted, and the member warned. If it happened again the member would be banned for a week. if it happend again the members account would be deleted.

I must say they are very tolerant on this forum. I'm sure no one minds the odd joke or funny post, but this sort of posting is senseless.

[RazorX]

There, fixed for ya ;)

Thanks moosie - was gonna post something like that but thought it might be going too far :p

[craic]

So, back to business, what do we pick for a high this time on the back of the latest announcement? Just above 260 at the moment with a lot of small sal es - profit taking - and soon to open in Australia? I would like to think that it will get to 270cps by mid-May.

[Major von Tempsky]

Actually that's the 4th time the fool (Troyvdh) has posted exactly the same comment on this thread. I would say that the MODERATORS (ANYONE AWAKE?) are asleep at the wheel.

Of more interest here's an interesting article from the Sydney M H about Telstra in Australia http://www.smh.com.au/business/its-winwin-for-telstra-investors-20130429-2ioxn.html

[craic]

Had a crack at putting my lot on 265cps this afternoon but didn't quite make it. Ah, Well! Try again sometime soon. Had a look at the depth and it can't be far off - long as it doesn't hit 265 and keep going up.

[Major von Tempsky]

Performance recently sort of bears out my comment a coupla months ago that in fundamental terms TEL is heavily undervalued and FBU heavily overvalued.
But FBU is "fashionable" and TEL is not.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL hampster!!!! whats that , a hamster being transported in a hamper?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Mzqlf1_SkWU/UPjvVM_s3EI/AAAAAAAABIE/IkgX7uEOR2c/s400/Hamster+Funny.jpg (http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Mzqlf1_SkWU/UPjvVM_s3EI/AAAAAAAABIE/IkgX7uEOR2c/s1600/Hamster+Funny.jpg)
your mother is a hampster and your father smelt of elderberries".
There, fixed for ya ;)

[craic]

Up again today on a rampant market, tel currently at 267cps and the rest up 48 points. We must be doing something right even if the Greens don't agree.

[craic]

Yep not going to sell on a rising market. Like the mechanic said "the best timing is just a few degrees past top dead centre" By the way, I had a hampster once but yours kooks more like a technicolour guineapig.
Still holding then are we?

[BIRMANBOY]

What is it with these Freudian slips??? I know times were tough in the Emerald Isles Craic....but comeon did you have to "Kook" your pets...yum..yum roast guinea pig and spuds...sob..sob..there there little Paddy.... it was him or us.
Yep not going to sell on a rising market. Like the mechanic said "the best timing is just a few degrees past top dead centre" By the way, I had a hampster once but yours kooks more like a technicolour guineapig.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic was that Mechanic back in the 1700s

[BIRMANBOY]

Whats the stocking rate per hectare? Yes indeed....stayed with a couple of mates in the Coromandel who grew their own as well....most of the time they didnt know what they were eating so would have been perfect.
Ah guinea pigs! Lovely to eat and very healthy meat. We should start farming them in NZ. Stayed with a family in Peru who grew their own. Very tasty off the BBQ.

More here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guinea_pig#As_food

[craic]

The truth is that back in the 1950's when I left the British Army, I was suffering a hormonal imbalance related to a certain Serjeant Majors daughter and took a job in a Salibury Hotel. I bought a hamster for a pet. The breakfast cook at the County Hotel was an aged guy who occupied the next room to me over the coach houses. One afternoon, after he had cooked the breakfasts, gone out and backed his horses and consumed a skinful of alcohol, he fell asleep on his bed on his back. He woke to find my hamster sitting on his chest looking straight at him. I don't know what happened to the SJM's daughter, the breakfast cook or the hamster. I went down to Southampton and signed on the Capetown Castle and commenced my career as a merchant seaman. I haven't seen a hamster since. The mechanic was back in the forties or fifties.

[BIRMANBOY]

So the daughter joined the local abbey as a novitiate (deeply distraught at you abandoning her), the breakfast cook was honoured by the local culinary society for a delicious new variety of an exotic meat and the hamster committed suicide from the dual trauma of being abandoned by his owner and inhaling too many alcoholic vapours?
The truth is that back in the 1950's when I left the British Army, I was suffering a hormonal imbalance related to a certain Serjeant Majors daughter and took a job in a Salibury Hotel. I bought a hamster for a pet. The breakfast cook at the County Hotel was an aged guy who occupied the next room to me over the coach houses. One afternoon, after he had cooked the breakfasts, gone out and backed his horses and consumed a skinful of alcohol, he fell asleep on his bed on his back. He woke to find my hamster sitting on his chest looking straight at him. I don't know what happened to the SJM's daughter, the breakfast cook or the hamster. I went down to Southampton and signed on the Capetown Castle and commenced my career as a merchant seaman. I haven't seen a hamster since. The mechanic was back in the forties or fifties.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic even in the 1940s the manuals and the timing marks set the ignition timing a few degrees Before Top Dead Centre I think you would have to go back before 1914 to get a timing set After TDC

[craic]

Craic even in the 1940s the manuals and the timing marks set the ignition timing a few degrees Before Top Dead Centre I think you would have to go back before 1914 to get a timing set After TDC
Old age is getting to me - it was a couple of degrees before TDC as you say The machine in question was a model Y Ford from the Thirties that had been cut down into a little truck and delivered the produce of our cows around a nearby town. It was called "Ladybird" and replaced a horse and cart.
I remember a nut with a rod that was removed and turned around for the rod to engage a hole in the flywheel, the exact place to be. I still hope to sell TEL at a couple of degrees after TDC.

[peat]

wtf is up with this thread
stay on subject guys!

[duncan macgregor]

wtf is up with this thread
stay on subject guys! Dont be to impulsive Peat the guys only got their wires crossed. Incidently surely your name is Pete short for peter not something dug out of a bog. Its probabely a good sign for a company when the topic strays a bit. Macdunk

[BIRMANBOY]

Dont let us get in your way of posting....went back to feb..and no posts from you so either contribute or suffer in silence. Just passing the time until we receive your posts Peat:D
wtf is up with this thread
stay on subject guys!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Craic with tel the profit would be the sameif you sell 2%before Or 2%after the peak it is knowing exactly when the peak is or was. A bird in hand is usually better than two in the bush

[peat]

Dont let us get in your way of posting....went back to feb..and no posts from you so either contribute or suffer in silence. Just passing the time until we receive your posts Peat:D

I dont have a lot to say on Telecom. Its a large company , analysis is being performed on it by those abler than I am. The big question for investors is obviously whether the dividend yield is sustainable. I seem to recall thinking that they are paying out more than they earn so thats a worry.
Of recent interest is the purchase of Revera a datacentre for $100m. My view on that is anyone can own a datacentre but can they manage it well because thats where the skill lies. Lots of competition now in this area too as Datacom - which has the skill to both build and manage - ramps up its activity in this area.

Anecdotally however, they are the best provider of broadband (most likely simply because they own - or did at least - the backbone) and I have used their ADSL/2 since it first arrived with exemplary up time and a generous refund for the one significant outage.
I also use their mobile data with a smart phone and got a pretty good deal on that. So I see them as strong contenders in the mobile market as well.

Technically I have in the past agreed with MacDunk that it has been in a long downterm trend and so wouldnt touch it myself but that has changed somewhat now and so I am interested in following the thread. Doesnt mean I wanna read twaddle about technicolour guinea pigs, Freudian slips or people lifestories though.

[craic]

Peat, I have been in Tel for years and it has provided me with lots of luxuries in my old age, far better than any other shares but I have had one or two major successes in picking an underpriced company, just before they were bought out etc. Nowadays I am too busy up the hill with an axe and chainsaw to watch the market that closely. The stuff on the hill is not profitable but it keeps me fit in my happy years and provides the odd dice-with-death to remind me who I am.

[peat]

4505

I'm surprised you're happy with Tel

[craic]

Dead right - a new car with the CNU shares they gave me - one or two sell high and buy lows and a few grand in divs each years. Each year the taxman repays me about a grand. Your graph is steady from mid 2008, thats almost five years. In my equation,I stick with a two-year graph as anything longer is distorted by ancient history.

[BIRMANBOY]

So this attitude is understandable when you look at an investment in a single, blinkered manner. Firstly SP activity and trendlines are just one (very limited) way of measuring a companys "worth". SP is simply a function of investors/traders perception of where the company is at any given moment and quite often has nothing to do with what a company actually does or produces. A more glaring example of this SP "noise" is XERO which is and has been losing money for years. So best to think of SP as a separate guage of the investors perception and not as a true picture of the "Value" of a company. The value can only be found by looking at and examining Annual Reports and by seeing what dividends and profits it produces. I'll leave you to look at its Annual Reports but here are its dividends. Being happy with any investment is ultimately judged on what your intentions are and how well did you plan the investment. If you invested at the beginning of your chart period..held until now..you may be unhappy..I dont know..someone would have to figure out all the dividends etc etc and also add in the unbundling Chorus shares etc. etc.. A lot depends on timing in investing..investing at the "wrong" time can be a disaster and can happen with any company because very few companies go up and continue without having periodic dips or corrections. TEL has been excellent for me because I believe that fundamentally its a good company and even if the SP drops I look at that as an opportunity to buy more NOT abandon ship. What type of investor you are will colour your opinion of the company.
[Q

(all cash figures in NZ currency)


Dividend

CPS


Imputation
Credits (cps)


DRP Strike
Price


AUD FX
Rate


Date Paid





H1 2013

8.0


1.0588


2.2718


0.79355


5 Apr 13



H2 2012

11.0


3.2083


2.3418


0.7885


5 Oct 12



H1 2012

9.0


3.5


2.3994


0.7802


5 Apr 12



Fourth Quarter 2011

7.5


2.9166


n/a


0.7967


16 Sept 11



Fourth Quarter 2011 - Special

2


0.7777


n/a


0.7967


16 Sept 11



Third Quarter 2011

3.5


1.5


n/a


0.7551


3 Jun 11



Second Quarter 2011

3.5


1.5


n/a


0.7411


11 Mar 11



First Quarter 2011

3.5


1.5


n/a


0.78425


3 Dec 10



Fourth Quarter 2010

6.0


Nil


2.065


0.7885


17 Sept 10



Third Quarter 2010

6.0


Nil


1.9061


0.8132


4 Jun 10



Second Quarter 2010

6.0


Nil


2.1804


0.7757


12 Mar 10



First Quarter 2010

6.0


Nil


2.37165


0.78885


4 Dec 09



Fourth Quarter 2009

6.0


Nil


2.6439


0.8088


18 Sept 09



Third Quarter 2009

6.0


Nil


2.46283


0.79316


5 June 09



Second Quarter 2009

6.0


Nil


2.2845


0.77828


13 Mar 09



First Quarter 2009

6.0


Nil


2.2849


0.82745


12 Dec 08



Fourth Quarter 2008

8.0


3.9403


n/a


0.81554


12 Sept 08



Third Quarter 2008

7.0


3.4478


3.9358


0.81795


6 Jun 08



Second Quarter 2008

7.0


3.4478


3.893


0.87338


7 Mar 08



First Quarter 2008

7.0


3.4478


4.2639


0.86175


7 Dec 07



Capital return

(1)


n/a


n/a


0.85594


5 Oct 07



Fourth Quarter 2007

14.5


7.141


4.047


0.87025


7 Sept 07



Third Quarter 2007

7.0


3.4478


4.7080


0.8866


8 June 07



Second Quarter 2007

7.0


3.4478


4.6880


0.8866


9 Mar 07



First Quarter 2007

7.0


3.4478


4.3622


0.8589


8 Dec 06



Fourth Quarter 2006

7.0


3.4478


4.0009


0.8411


8 Sep 06



Fourth Quarter 2006 - Special

5.0


2.4627


4.0009


0.8411


8 Sep 06



Third Quarter 2006

9.5


4.6791


4.5335


0.8366


9 Jun 06



Second Quarter 2006

9.5


4.6791


5.2371


0.8941


10 Mar 06



Second Quarter 2006 - Special

5.0


2.4627


5.2371


0.8941


10 Mar 06



First Quarter 2006

9.5


4.6791


5.8061


0.9515


9 Dec 05



Fourth Quarter 2005 - Special

10


4.925


6.0884


0.92056


9 Sept 05



Fourth Quarter 2005

10


4.925


6.0884


0.92056


9 Sept 05



Third Quarter 2005

9.5


4.6791


5.9702


0.9354


10 Jun 05



Second Quarter 2005

9.5


4.679


6.4045


0.91914


11 Mar 05



First Quarter 2005

9.5


4.679


6.0765


0.92535


10 Dec 04



Fourth Quarter 2004

9.5


4.679


5.7203


0.9285


10 Sept 04



Third Quarter 2004

7.5


3.69


5.5063


0.8845


11 Jun 04



Second Quarter 2004

5.00


2.46


5.4983


0.8901


12 Mar 04



First Quarter 2004

5.00


2.46


5.0183


0.8812


12 Dec 03



Fourth Quarter 2003

5.00


2.46


4.8432


0.8910


12 Sept 03



Third Quarter 2003

5.00


2.46


4.9553


0.87765


13 Jun 03



Second Quarter 2003

5.00


2.46


4.1074


0.9146


14 Mar 03



First Quarter 2003

5.00


2.46


4.5194


0.89076


13 Dec 02



Fourth Quarter 2002

5.00


2.46


4.914


0.8577


13 Sep 02



Third Quarter 2002

5.00


2.46


4.9965


0.85243


14 Jun 02



Second Quarter 2002

5.00


2.46


4.8495


0.82000


22 Mar 02



First Quarter 2002

5.00


2.46


4.8934


0.80195


14 Dec 01







UOTE=peat;405968]4505

I'm surprised you're happy with Tel[/QUOTE]

[peat]

Of course I understand dividends are significant over the years and that return = capital gain/loss + yield.
Getting a car from CNU is no measure tho. You would have got two cars if you'd invested twice as much.

But these discussions have been done re TEL so we need to look at the future.

[BIRMANBOY]

So why did you refer to the past then?? Good luck with trying to figure out the future as well. LOL If you are a trader you would have/could have made a good return from TEL many, many times just in the last 2/3 years. If you are a long term holder like some posting here you will be happy with the divs (currently 7.43% dividend yield and #6 on the NZX in my list of dividend yielders.) I dont see your problem with this...its a winner either way. If you are trying to figure out some way of seeing whats in the future please advise everyone when you discover it. In the meantime the only tool we have is by looking at the past, look at existing situations and make "educated " guesses about where it could/might/perhaps go.
Of course I understand dividends are significant over the years and that return = capital gain/loss + yield.
Getting a car from CNU is no measure tho. You would have got two cars if you'd invested twice as much.

But these discussions have been done re TEL so we need to look at the future.

[craic]

Of course I understand dividends are significant over the years and that return = capital gain/loss + yield.
Getting a car from CNU is no measure tho. You would have got two cars if you'd invested twice as much.

But these discussions have been done re TEL so we need to look at the future.
I didn't get a car from CNU. TEL gave me an allocation of CNU shares that did not affect TEL shares. I didn't want them and sold them and bought a car. TELs price was not affected by this distribution for long so CNU shares represented a dividend, big enough to buy the car on top of the annual dividend. The contacts I have (family) who are expert in this field are quite happy with telecom.

[Baaarney]

I totally agree within the earlier comments around timeframe. I have only owned in the last 12-18mths and couldn't be happier with both the capital and dividend gains over this period. However, I do share some concerns around the sustainabilty of the payouts and will continue to monitor

[Major von Tempsky]

Simon Moutter is regarded as a very able manager who did very well with Auckland Airport. The Revera purchase is a sign that he wants to move onto attack. He's also very focussed on taking costs out hence hundreds of redundancies/exits quietly taking place. Surely the moves on shrinking the labour force alone makes the EBITDA sustainable even if there is a temporary blip with redundancy payouts.

[Hoop]

Poor investment folks... only 23% over 11.25 years incl CHU split and if you didn't pay your taxes.....lost out to low inflation... $5.08 entry price in 2002$$$ is equivalent to 6.69 in 2013$$$



(all cash figures in NZ currency)






Dividend
CPS
Imputation
Credits (cps)
DRP Strike
Price
AUD FX
Rate
Date Paid
Telecom Price
c/f DIV etc




H1 2013
8
1.0588
2.2718
0.79355
04/05/13
2.41
3.845




H2 2012
11
3.2083
2.3418
0.7885
10/05/12
2.38
3.765




H1 2012
9
3.5
2.3994
0.7802
04/05/12
2.47
3.655




CHU Split
Approx 60.0






11/22/11
2.03
3.565




Fourth Quarter 2011
7.5
2.9166
n/a
0.7967
09/16/11
2.58
2.965




Fourth Quarter 2011 - Special
2
0.7777
n/a
0.7967
09/16/11
2.58
2.89




Third Quarter 2011
3.5
1.5
n/a
0.7551
06/03/11
2.33
2.87




Second Quarter 2011
3.5
1.5
n/a
0.7411
03/11/11
2.04
2.835




First Quarter 2011
3.5
1.5
n/a
0.78425
12/03/10
2.15
2.8




Fourth Quarter 2010
6
Nil
2.065
0.7885
09/17/10
2.06
2.765




Third Quarter 2010
6
Nil
1.9061
0.8132
06/04/10
1.85
2.705




Second Quarter 2010
6
Nil
2.1804
0.7757
03/12/10
2.23
2.645




First Quarter 2010
6
Nil
2.37165
0.78885
12/04/09
2.41
2.585




Fourth Quarter 2009
6
Nil
2.6439
0.8088
09/18/09
2.67
2.525




Third Quarter 2009
6
Nil
2.46283
0.79316
06/05/09
2.61
2.465




Second Quarter 2009
6
Nil
2.2845
0.77828
03/13/09
2.34
2.405




First Quarter 2009
6
Nil
2.2849
0.82745
12/12/08
2.32
2.345




Fourth Quarter 2008
8
3.9403
n/a
0.81554
09/12/08
2.97
2.285




Third Quarter 2008
7
3.4478
3.9358
0.81795
06/06/08
3.86
2.205




Second Quarter 2008
7
3.4478
3.893
0.87338
03/07/08
3.89
2.135




First Quarter 2008
7
3.4478
4.2639
0.86175
12/07/07
4.44
2.065




Capital return
-1
4.88 – 4.56 /9
Equal 3c
0.85594
10/05/07
4.56
1.995




Fourth Quarter 2007
14.5
7.141
4.047
0.87025
09/07/07
4.38
1.965




Third Quarter 2007
7
3.4478
4.708
0.8866
06/08/07
4.61
1.82




Second Quarter 2007
7
3.4478
4.688
0.8866
03/09/07
4.78
1.75




First Quarter 2007
7
3.4478
4.3622
0.8589
12/08/06
4.66
1.68




Fourth Quarter 2006
7
3.4478
4.0009
0.8411
09/08/06
4.28
1.61




Fourth Quarter 2006 - Special
5
2.4627
4.0009
0.8411
09/08/06
4.28
1.54




Third Quarter 2006
9.5
4.6791
4.5335
0.8366
06/09/06
4.44
1.49




Second Quarter 2006
9.5
4.6791
5.2371
0.8941
03/10/06
5.45
1.395




Second Quarter 2006 - Special
5
2.4627
5.2371
0.8941
03/10/06
5.45
1.3




First Quarter 2006
9.5
4.6791
5.8061
0.9515
12/09/05
5.6
1.25




Fourth Quarter 2005 - Special
10
4.925
6.0884
0.92056
09/09/05
6.06
1.155




Fourth Quarter 2005
10
4.925
6.0884
0.92056
09/09/05
6.06
1.055




Third Quarter 2005
9.5
4.6791
5.9702
0.9354
06/10/05
5.96
0.955




Second Quarter 2005
9.5
4.679
6.4045
0.91914
03/11/05
6.26
0.86




First Quarter 2005
9.5
4.679
6.0765
0.92535
12/10/04
6.04
0.765




Fourth Quarter 2004
9.5
4.679
5.7203
0.9285
09/10/04
5.65
0.67




Third Quarter 2004
7.5
3.69
5.5063
0.8845
06/11/04
5.61
0.575




Second Quarter 2004
5
2.46
5.4983
0.8901
03/12/04
5.9
0.5




First Quarter 2004
5
2.46
5.0183
0.8812
12/12/03
5.13
0.45




Fourth Quarter 2003
5
2.46
4.8432
0.891
09/12/03
4.95
0.4




Third Quarter 2003
5
2.46
4.9553
0.87765
06/13/03
5.1
0.35




Second Quarter 2003
5
2.46
4.1074
0.9146
03/14/03
4.22
0.3




First Quarter 2003
5
2.46
4.5194
0.89076
12/13/02
4.38
0.25




Fourth Quarter 2002
5
2.46
4.914
0.8577
09/13/02
4.92
0.2




Third Quarter 2002
5
2.46
4.9965
0.85243
06/14/02
5.2
0.15




Second Quarter 2002
5
2.46
4.8495
0.82
03/22/02
4.75
0.1




First Quarter 2002
5
2.46
4.8934
0.80195
12/14/01
5.08
0.5


















Start 5.08
Finish 2.41 + 3.845 = 6.255


Total 23%
Over 11.25 years = 2.04%










Tax has not been taken out



















2002NZ$ 5.08 is worth in 2013NZ$ 6.69


(Reserve bank CPI calculator)


















http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/0135595.html

[BIRMANBOY]

Did you take into account the unbundling and chorus share handout? At the time I got 2000 and those are worth $5400 plus there has beeen a dividend on that (all at no cost since TEL price recovered to make up drop from unbundling). Plus every time I saw a dip I purchased more so my average holding price is 2.24 (making my yield 8.94% not counting the aforesaid Chorus).. Nothing is ever as simple as it would seem is it? Timing is so important ...it can make an average or apparently poor investment into a thing of beauty:). If you had done the "dont mention the word in polite company" and averaged down your holding price by buying in the dips you would be in an excellent position. Disclaimer...not suggesting or advising that as a general rule but in some cases its a superb way of ressurecting bad timing on the buy.
Poor investment folks... only 23% over 11.25 years incl CHU split and if you didn't pay your taxes.....lost out to low inflation... $5.08 entry price in 2002$$$ is equivalent to 6.69 in 2013$$$



(all cash figures in NZ currency)







Dividend

CPS

Imputation
Credits (cps)

DRP Strike
Price

AUD FX
Rate

Date Paid

Telecom Price

c/f DIV etc





H1 2013

8

1.0588

2.2718

0.79355

04/05/13

2.41

3.845





H2 2012

11

3.2083

2.3418

0.7885

10/05/12

2.38

3.765





H1 2012

9

3.5

2.3994

0.7802

04/05/12

2.47

3.655





CHU Split

Approx 60.0










11/22/11

2.03

3.565





Fourth Quarter 2011

7.5

2.9166

n/a

0.7967

09/16/11

2.58

2.965





Fourth Quarter 2011 - Special

2

0.7777

n/a

0.7967

09/16/11

2.58

2.89





Third Quarter 2011

3.5

1.5

n/a

0.7551

06/03/11

2.33

2.87





Second Quarter 2011

3.5

1.5

n/a

0.7411

03/11/11

2.04

2.835





First Quarter 2011

3.5

1.5

n/a

0.78425

12/03/10

2.15

2.8





Fourth Quarter 2010

6

Nil

2.065

0.7885

09/17/10

2.06

2.765





Third Quarter 2010

6

Nil

1.9061

0.8132

06/04/10

1.85

2.705





Second Quarter 2010

6

Nil

2.1804

0.7757

03/12/10

2.23

2.645





First Quarter 2010

6

Nil

2.37165

0.78885

12/04/09

2.41

2.585





Fourth Quarter 2009

6

Nil

2.6439

0.8088

09/18/09

2.67

2.525





Third Quarter 2009

6

Nil

2.46283

0.79316

06/05/09

2.61

2.465





Second Quarter 2009

6

Nil

2.2845

0.77828

03/13/09

2.34

2.405





First Quarter 2009

6

Nil

2.2849

0.82745

12/12/08

2.32

2.345





Fourth Quarter 2008

8

3.9403

n/a

0.81554

09/12/08

2.97

2.285





Third Quarter 2008

7

3.4478

3.9358

0.81795

06/06/08

3.86

2.205





Second Quarter 2008

7

3.4478

3.893

0.87338

03/07/08

3.89

2.135





First Quarter 2008

7

3.4478

4.2639

0.86175

12/07/07

4.44

2.065





Capital return

-1

4.88 – 4.56 /9

Equal 3c

0.85594

10/05/07

4.56

1.995





Fourth Quarter 2007

14.5

7.141

4.047

0.87025

09/07/07

4.38

1.965





Third Quarter 2007

7

3.4478

4.708

0.8866

06/08/07

4.61

1.82





Second Quarter 2007

7

3.4478

4.688

0.8866

03/09/07

4.78

1.75





First Quarter 2007

7

3.4478

4.3622

0.8589

12/08/06

4.66

1.68





Fourth Quarter 2006

7

3.4478

4.0009

0.8411

09/08/06

4.28

1.61





Fourth Quarter 2006 - Special

5

2.4627

4.0009

0.8411

09/08/06

4.28

1.54





Third Quarter 2006

9.5

4.6791

4.5335

0.8366

06/09/06

4.44

1.49





Second Quarter 2006

9.5

4.6791

5.2371

0.8941

03/10/06

5.45

1.395





Second Quarter 2006 - Special

5

2.4627

5.2371

0.8941

03/10/06

5.45

1.3





First Quarter 2006

9.5

4.6791

5.8061

0.9515

12/09/05

5.6

1.25





Fourth Quarter 2005 - Special

10

4.925

6.0884

0.92056

09/09/05

6.06

1.155





Fourth Quarter 2005

10

4.925

6.0884

0.92056

09/09/05

6.06

1.055





Third Quarter 2005

9.5

4.6791

5.9702

0.9354

06/10/05

5.96

0.955





Second Quarter 2005

9.5

4.679

6.4045

0.91914

03/11/05

6.26

0.86





First Quarter 2005

9.5

4.679

6.0765

0.92535

12/10/04

6.04

0.765





Fourth Quarter 2004

9.5

4.679

5.7203

0.9285

09/10/04

5.65

0.67





Third Quarter 2004

7.5

3.69

5.5063

0.8845

06/11/04

5.61

0.575





Second Quarter 2004

5

2.46

5.4983

0.8901

03/12/04

5.9

0.5





First Quarter 2004

5

2.46

5.0183

0.8812

12/12/03

5.13

0.45





Fourth Quarter 2003

5

2.46

4.8432

0.891

09/12/03

4.95

0.4





Third Quarter 2003

5

2.46

4.9553

0.87765

06/13/03

5.1

0.35





Second Quarter 2003

5

2.46

4.1074

0.9146

03/14/03

4.22

0.3





First Quarter 2003

5

2.46

4.5194

0.89076

12/13/02

4.38

0.25





Fourth Quarter 2002

5

2.46

4.914

0.8577

09/13/02

4.92

0.2





Third Quarter 2002

5

2.46

4.9965

0.85243

06/14/02

5.2

0.15





Second Quarter 2002

5

2.46

4.8495

0.82

03/22/02

4.75

0.1





First Quarter 2002

5

2.46

4.8934

0.80195

12/14/01

5.08

0.5



















Start 5.08

Finish 2.41 + 3.845 = 6.255



Total 23%

Over 11.25 years = 2.04%











Tax has not been taken out




















2002NZ$ 5.08 is worth in 2013NZ$ 6.69



(Reserve bank CPI calculator)



















http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/0135595.html

[Hoop]

Did you take into account the unbundling and chorus share handout? At the time I got 2000 and those are worth $5400 plus there has beeen a dividend on that (all at no cost since TEL price recovered to make up drop from unbundling). Plus every time I saw a dip I purchased more so my average holding price is 2.24 (making my yield 8.94% not counting the aforesaid Chorus).. Nothing is ever as simple as it would seem is it? Timing is so important ...it can make an average or apparently poor investment into a thing of beauty:). If you had done the "dont mention the word in polite company" and averaged down your holding price by buying in the dips you would be in an excellent position. Disclaimer...not suggesting or advising that as a general rule but in some cases its a superb way of ressurecting bad timing on the buy.

Yes ...if you read my table you will see it..I gave it as a 60c handout I think thats close enough..its what the Market valued it as on the day it went trading ex-CHU



H2 2012
11
3.2083
2.3418
0.7885
10/05/12
2.38
3.765




H1 2012
9
3.5
2.3994
0.7802
04/05/12
2.47
3.655




CHU Split

Approx 60.0






11/22/11
2.03
3.565




Fourth Quarter 2011

7.5
2.9166
n/a
0.7967
09/16/11
2.58
2.965

[Hoop]

In addition
I'm not against TEL...as a chartist I have to try and be impartial
Yes Timing the buy/sells is very important during times when a stock is in a bear market cycle.
The best strategy during a bull cycle is buy and hold....sadily TEL has been in bear cycle since 2001 so as you can see from past history the timed buy/sell Strategy far out weighs the buy and Hold Strategy.

NOW becareful here...as the ol saying goes..All trends must end.......There's a good agument that TEL has bottomed out in June 2010....Many published charts aren't adjusted for the CNU split and show a flat tops and slightly rising lows making an illusion that TEL is still a bear.
I believe TEL is in a Bull cycle (a poor performing bull atm) so a buy and hold strategy maybe the favoured option shortly...at the moment success can be achieved from a mixture of strategies....however with a rampant NZX index there are better fish to fry than TEL....

Patience ...TEL will again shine

[craic]

I rely on the direct broking site for current prices, Is there a more up to date figure available free? Half-an-hour can be a huge difference when one cent either way is several hundred dollars. I also notice that their price line doesn't end at 5pm but often has a kink up or down after that time.

[duncan macgregor]

The only real winning chart with this dog is the uptrending chart of the CEO renumeration chart.All other charts including worker satisfaction, security of employment,and customer satisfaction charts have been in confirmed down trends for years. The only real winners with this company are the TA traders buying and selling. The market share of the company has diminished due to increased competition even although the actual market has increased. Their position year by year has declined along with the share price but sooner or later it must bottom out. Macdunk

[BIRMANBOY]

If it shone any brighter I'd be blind.....Show me where I can get another return of 8.94%?? (and thats not even counting the no cost Chorus shares dividends) Also my 2000 Chorus shares are worth 2.70 each so holding 5400 profit (not 60 cents) each plus ongoing dividends of 7% or so from Chorus to be added to TEL dividend... TEL is a high producer for me....how can you say otherwise? The "fact" thats its a poor excuse for a company is trotted out regularly with selective and less than impartial data. Plus I am sitting on 46 cents profit per share. If you cant see that as being a great return..I give up. Or if you can point me in the direction where I can get a better return I'd be interested..has to have a dividend yield though...
In addition
I'm not against TEL...as a chartist I have to try and be impartial
Yes Timing the buy/sells is very important during times when a stock is in a bear market cycle.
The best strategy during a bull cycle is buy and hold....sadily TEL has been in bear cycle since 2001 so as you can see from past history the timed buy/sell Strategy far out weighs the buy and Hold Strategy.

NOW becareful here...as the ol saying goes..All trends must end.......There's a good agument that TEL has bottomed out in June 2010....Many published charts aren't adjusted for the CNU split and show a flat tops and slightly rising lows making an illusion that TEL is still a bear.
I believe TEL is in a Bull cycle (a poor performing bull atm) so a buy and hold strategy maybe the favoured option shortly...at the moment success can be achieved from a mixture of strategies....however with a rampant NZX index there are better fish to fry than TEL....

Patience ...TEL will again shine

[BIRMANBOY]

IS YOUR REALITY MORE REAL THAN MY REALITY?
So being of an introspective mind at 2AM .... blasted awake by three cats playing chase me around the bed, I have been dwelling on the meaning of truth. I have decided that "some truth can be found in many places, but the whole truth can only be found by many people together looking in many places" (BB rural philosp 101) Hmmmm so fffing what I hear you say..hear me out....all will be revealed (and I can get back to sleep again). So why is it, I said to myself, that people /investors whatever look at the same thing and come up with different opinions as to what it is, what is it for, how much is it worth etc. TEL seems to be one of those companies that get lots of polarizing comments and opinions and since I am of a generous soul I say to myself how can all these supposedly rational individuals be seeing the same thing. We are all rational arent we? Answer of course is that we all see our own truth much more clearly and succintly than we see someone elses truth. So Is TEL (or anthing for that matter) a good or a crap investment?..to me and others who you will all know (and admire) its good and others who will know themselves say its bad...so now the whole truth (reverting back to BB rural phil 101). The FOR TEL brigade have by a combination of good timing and astute analytical skills (lets not say luck) managed to accumulate an investment that satisfies their individual investment strategy whatever that may be. They cannot and will not be swayed from their belief that the sun shines from the large ediface/orifice that TEL is. The against TEL supporters have by an unfortunate combination of bad timing ,poor decision making and bad luck either lost money or faith...maybe both. As Hoop says if you purchased in 2002 and then took into consideration that time period until now I can understand why your investment is looking pretty suspect...SP has dropped from 4.99 to now at 2.70. So here is where an investment strategy comes in. I would never have bought in 2002..all the way through to approx 2010. Why not? Because basically the Dividend yield % was no better than the current TD rates at the time. My strategy says first buy based on dividend yield % (has to be returning at least 2% more than TD), second buy when SP is at the lowest possible, or at least lower than the average, price over a 5 year period (no death spirals). So when I started buying in early 2010 at 2.40 the div yield % was 10% (TD rate was 4.5 %). I then kept buying as opportunities presented and have an average price now of 2.24. Now I recognise that someone who purchased in 2002 for growth prospects will be thinking dark thoughts and either they sold off at a loss someplace or have held reluctantly and resent that it has never recovered. Presumably if you were a trader and worked the charts you would have made your loss, got out and made it up somewhere else. The people who didnt really have a strategy to handle the events were the ones who will be scarred. What have I learnt from this is the following: (1) Have a well thought out and proven investment philosophy (2) Dont be afraid to tweek the plan if needed (3) Always listen to what others are saying but ultimately make your own decision based on your situation. (4) never rubbish someone elses decisions or pronounce judgement because next time it could be you. (5) always consider the context /big picture when posting back on other posters.e.g. what is their position and how is it affecting what they say. (6) As Stevie says..there is good and bad in everyone.... Look for the spaces to make money. TEL can make everyone some money, as can many shares, as long as you learn from others and also learn from your own mistakes. BB philosophy #2 there are very few "bad" companies but plenty of "bad " ways of working them. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Blind_monks_examining_an_elephant.jpg/380px-Blind_monks_examining_an_elephant.jpg (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/File:Blind_monks_examining_an_elephant.jpg) http://bits.wikimedia.org/static-1.22wmf2/skins/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/File:Blind_monks_examining_an_elephant.jpg)
"Blind monks examining an elephant", an ukiyo-e (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Ukiyo-e) print by Hanabusa Itchō (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Hanabusa_Itch%C5%8D) (1652–1724).


The Buddha (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Gautama_Buddha) twice uses the simile of blind men led astray. In the Canki Sutta he describes a row of blind men holding on to each other as an example of those who follow an old text that has passed down from generation to generation.[3] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-3) In the Udana (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/wiki/Udana) (68–69)[4] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-4) he uses the elephant parable to describe sectarian quarrels. A king has the blind men of the capital brought to the palace, where an elephant is brought in and they are asked to describe it.

When the blind men had each felt a part of the elephant, the king went to each of them and said to each: 'Well, blind man, have you seen the elephant? Tell me, what sort of thing is an elephant?'
The men assert the elephant is either like a pot (the blind man who felt the elephants' head), a winnowing basket (ear), a plowshare (tusk), a plow (trunk), a granary (body), a pillar (foot), a mortar (back), a pestle (tail) or a brush (tip of the tail).
The men cannot agree with one another and come to blows over the question of what it is like and their dispute delights the king. The Buddha ends the story by comparing the blind men to preachers and scholars who are blind and ignorant and hold to their own views: "Just so are these preachers and scholars holding various views blind and unseeing.... In their ignorance they are by nature quarrelsome, wrangling, and disputatious, each maintaining reality is thus and thus." The Buddha then speaks the following verse:

O how they cling and wrangle, some who claim
For preacher and monk the honored name!
For, quarreling, each to his view they cling.
Such folk see only one side of a thing.[5] (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/#cite_note-Buddhist-5)

[BIRMANBOY]

Great...now can you get me back to 2009 so I can take advantage of it? Yes please do go on..Always interesting seeing others thought processes.
Actually that's pretty simple ...

HBY purchased in 2009 for an average price of 90c ... now paying 13c per share ... Current yeild 14% plus capital gain of 300 %.

RBD ... purchased in 2009 for an average price of 95c ... now paying 16c per share ... Current yield 16% plus capital gain of over 300%

And I could go on. Recessions are good for those who plan ahead, set stop losses, and are patient.

Buying and holding doesn't require much thinking (or critical thought) but doesn't maximise returns.

[Hoop]

Birmanboy...Nice try :) ...Responding to factual evidence with half truths suggests you have potential skills to become a great Politician..


If it shone any brighter I'd be blind (Hmmm).....Show me where I can get another return of 8.94%?? (Belg already gave you a taste...My view is probably nearly all of the NZX50 companies since the index has risen 43% since the demerger (and thats not even counting the no cost Chorus shares dividends) Also my 2000 Chorus shares are worth 2.70 each (they were worth $3.21 at close on its demerger they closed last Friday at 2.69... ..16% loss on capital since then + 2 dividends 14.6c and 10c (not their promised 12.5) = 24.6c +2.70 price = 2.94.... still less than their 23 November 2011 debut closing price ..and remember we have been in a bull market since CNU's listing) so holding 5400 profit (not 60 cents) yeah right!! Telecom dropped from 2.70 to 2.00 on the day of the demerger so you actually got nothing capitalwise..I treated it as a 60c dividend on my spreadsheet.... each plus ongoing dividends of 7% or so from Chorus to be added to TEL dividend Yes we agree here... TEL is a high producer for me Really? ..Hmmm..If you bought TEL at its bottom at 180c in May 2010 (an extremely hard thing to do) you will be 49% up (incl CNU, excl dividends)...however the NZX50 was 54% up at the same time (excl dividends) so TEL divvys may put you close to par ....how can you say otherwise? Easy I did just that on my #2506 with your 11 year spreadsheet to prove it The "fact" thats its a poor excuse for a company is trotted out regularly with selective and less than impartial data mostly your fault there mate. Plus I am sitting on 46 cents profit per share. If you cant see that as being a great return 46/242 =19% up against the 43% NZX50 up..I give up. Or if you can point me in the direction where I can get a better return I'd be interested..has to have a dividend yield though (why????)...

[BIRMANBOY]

See my post of 2515 and try again.
Birmanboy...Nice try :) ...Responding to factual evidence with half truths suggests you have potential skills to become a great Politician..

[Hoop]

See my post of 2515 and try again.

I'm trying very hard Birmanboy..really I am ..but ...but ...but...why? ..why over the last 3 years do you think that TEL performance is so great that quote " if it shone any brighter you'd be blind".....

From my reality it has performed just below par of the market that its involved in??...A blinding star??.. DIL yes :t_up: XRO yes :t_up: TEL ? :mellow:... urr no afraid not

Now if you said that TEL could be a better performer within its market environment over the next 3 years then I would understand and probably agree with you that it has possibilities as TEL is a different animal now than what it was 2 years ago.

[winner69]

Really bored tonight ... couldn't score an invite to a corporate box at the stadium to see the Bulldogs thrash the Warriors and far too cold to go and sit in the open - so just wondered what the long term returns were of holding TEL over the years,

From ASB report the returns for each year shown (with dividends reinvested) and I have done 2, 3 , 5 ,7 and 8 year returns on a rolling basis.

Yes - total returns from 2004 are 0.5% pa ..... would have been higher if the dividends had not been reinvested (not always a good strategy}

Currently is the only time when 3 year returns have been +ve

What a load of **** I hear some of you say

[BIRMANBOY]

Hoop you have missed something in the equation...I do not buy into growth stocks..ever... I only buy stocks that have a gross dividend yield that fits my strategy. As I re-iterated in the previous posts ...buy for yield (dividend) , buy at "distressed prices" and add more continually (when possible) to drive my holding price down. Its immaterial to me whether NZX goes up, down or sideways. As it happens my portfolio has gained along with the rising tide but again its immaterial. I judge my return soley on Dividend yield. That will remain constant even if the NZX takes a tumble. Differing styles of investing..you forget there are other types (other blind men:)) out there. Dont judge something based on a one dimensional set of criteria. Its sort of like driving a morris minor but doing a critique based on your BMW. Yes I lose out on the Xeros and DIl but thats my choice based on my investment strategy. I like to think that all of the traders will one day mature and become conservative fuddy duddys...hey it will happen..just mark my words. Its just a matter of time. And in the meantime please recognise that we are all working towards the same goal but some recognition of differing styles is always worthy of examination. Remember the old fable of the tortoise and the hare.
I'm trying very hard Birmanboy..really I am ..but ...but ...but...why? ..why over the last 3 years do you think that TEL performance is so great that quote " if it shone any brighter you'd be blind".....

From my reality it has performed just below par of the market that its involved in??...A blinding star??.. DIL yes :t_up: XRO yes :t_up: TEL ? :mellow:... urr no afraid not

Now if you said that TEL could be a better performer within its market environment over the next 3 years then I would understand and probably agree with you that it has possibilities as TEL is a different animal now than what it was 2 years ago.

[craic]

A beautiful collection of double talk and contradictions by an advisor - and for that read teacher - those who can do; those who can't teach. there may be some basic truths for beginners like beware of finance companies - what a blinding example of hindsight.

[BIRMANBOY]

W69 absolutely true....and incredibly simplistic. That just does absolutely nothing productive. Most shares can be made to look either great or terrible by selecting out the appropriate data or time line. As I pointed out in previous post the key is to recognise the good and or bad time. It would be a terribly naive investor who would allow any investment to get thrashed for that period of time and just lie back and do nothing. If you had been a trader you would have traded out with a loss long before the timeline ran its course. To suggest that just because SP /capital erosion did happen doesnt allow for the fact (hopefully) that an investor would do something about it. A good investor will react to situations as they occur and not wait 10 years crying onto their spreadsheet. IF they did hold hopefully they did what was an option (albeit an unpopular one on this forum) and buy periodically to average down their SP. I'm really sick of defending TEL but I can absolutely agree with you that based on your data it was bad. However it should teach us one thing and that is that there is a time and place for investment and that varies from company to company. Not every great company or bad company for that matter should be excluded from consideration...maybe bad time now but in 2 years great. Open mind and look for opportunities even where previously there may have only been negatives. As I have said and others as well TEL is good if you look/wait for the right time. Its easy to find/post negative aspects...what really separates an average from a great investor is their ability to find gold where others see only s..t[
Really bored tonight ... couldn't score an invite to a corporate box at the stadium to see the Bulldogs thrash the Warriors and far too cold to go and sit in the open - so just wondered what the long term returns were of holding TEL over the years,

From ASB report the returns for each year shown (with dividends reinvested) and I have done 2, 3 , 5 ,7 and 8 year returns on a rolling basis.

Yes - total returns from 2004 are 0.5% pa ..... would have been higher if the dividends had not been reinvested (not always a good strategy}

Currently is the only time when 3 year returns have been +ve

What a load of **** I hear some of you say

[Poet]

One man's fish...

It's true that Tel has been very poor buy and hold performer over the last ten years.

But in my opinion at least, it has some strong positives

good liquidity
good yield - [it's just your capital you have to watch out for!]
restructuring strategy and new senior management to implement


Still, every dog has its day...

So after watching for a long long time, I've been a holder since early March at $2.31. Add in a 10.33c dividend in April and I'm around 21% ahead so far and very pleased with that.

but given that timing is everything I wouldn't expect to hold it continously for the next ten years.

[BIRMANBOY]

There you go Poet....timing is king....Its not in rhyming couplets however....
This man or woman doth
speak volumes here of truth and troth
he buys at prices cheap as chips
and knows this doggie rarely nips


One man's fish...

It's true that Tel has been very poor buy and hold performer over the last ten years.

But in my opinion at least, it has some strong positives

good liquidity
good yield - [it's just your capital you have to watch out for!]
restructuring strategy and new senior management to implement


Still, every dog has its day...

So after watching for a long long time, I've been a holder since early March at $2.31. Add in a 10.33c dividend in April and I'm around 21% ahead so far and very pleased with that.

but given that timing is everything I wouldn't expect to hold it continously for the next ten years.

[Poet]

Thanks Birmanboy

Perhaps I should have said every doggerel has his day:)

[BIRMANBOY]

Love it....Birmanboy is (contrary to animal folklore) very partial to doggerel
Thanks Birmanboy

Perhaps I should have said every doggerel has his day:)

[airedale]

Thanks Birmanboy

Perhaps I should have said every doggerel has his day:)

Doggerel.....more like McGonnigle:)

[BIRMANBOY]

William Topaz McGonagall was a Scottish weaver, doggerel poet and actor. He won notoriety as an extremely bad poet who exhibited no recognition of or concern for his peers' opinions of his work...
Now thats subtle...in fact so subtle, so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it an Airedale. However my concern for your opinion as to my poetic "chops" is best exhibited by the following original dedicated to your faithfull companion(s)
But on Saturday morning the Bishop set off again,
Hoping that the last search wouldn't prove in vain;
Accompanied with a crowd of men and dogs,
All resolved to search the forest and the bogs.

And the party searched with might and main,
Until they began to think their search would prove in vain;
When the Bishop's faithful dogs raised a pitiful cry,
Which was heard by the searchers near by.

Then the party pressed on right manfully,
And sure enough there were the dogs guarding the body of Mackonochie;
And the corpse was cold and stiff, having been long dead,
Alas! almost frozen, and a wreath of snow around the head.

(supposedly waiting for TEL to hit the "buy" point.)


Doggerel.....more like McGonnigle:)

[Hoop]

One man's fish...

It's true that Tel has been very poor buy and hold performer over the last ten years.

But in my opinion at least, it has some strong positives

good liquidity
good yield - [it's just your capital you have to watch out for!]
restructuring strategy and new senior management to implement


Still, every dog has its day...

So after watching for a long long time, I've been a holder since early March at $2.31. Add in a 10.33c dividend in April and I'm around 21% ahead so far and very pleased with that.

but given that timing is everything I wouldn't expect to hold it continously for the next ten years.

Well done Poet
that 21% gain is well ahead of the 10% Market NZ index...

[Poet]

Well done Poet
that 21% gain is well ahead of the 10% Market NZ index...

Thanks, beginner's luck probably.

Exit timing will be the tricky thing [and the whole key to this share IMO]

[airedale]

Thanks, Birman, I am in the company of literary lions here, so I will slink back in to my kennel. Off topic for a mo, I never had a Birman but I once had a Burmese. Very good cat who knew how to control the Airedale.

[craic]

Up tp 272cps this afternoon. Still no predictions on how high it will go?

[Major von Tempsky]

Hmmm, how many bites of the cherry do you get Moosie?
"Just looked back at Moosie's great prediction (as I shall do from time to time :-) ) on 4th Apr 2013 when Tel was $2.37."

Ditto Hoop, a new chart just about every day so the last one will look topical and people won't go back to charts drawn around 4th April and say what a load of rubbish this TA charting is....

[Hoop]

Hmmm, how many bites of the cherry do you get Moosie?
"Just looked back at Moosie's great prediction (as I shall do from time to time :-) ) on 4th Apr 2013 when Tel was $2.37."

Ditto Hoop, a new chart just about every day so the last one will look topical and people won't go back to charts drawn around 4th April and say what a load of rubbish this TA charting is....

Not me MVT:confused::confused:..... I didn't post a chart 3 weeks either side of the the 4th April :confused: ....Posting TEL charts nearly everyday ...huh? ...Hmmmm

[Major von Tempsky]

Just as well you didn't Hoop, it would have turned out a bit wrong.
Still hard to understand the simple minded critics incl McDunk who always assume that any holder of TEL has held them since listing. I haven't, I sold my fathers TEL listing vintage shares but have bought various parcels at opportune times since then and I would think holders of TEL since listing must be fairly thin on the ground by now...

[Hoop]

Just as well you didn't Hoop, it would have turned out quite wrong.

How can you deem something that doesn't exist as being wrong?

[BIRMANBOY]

OOh..oooh me sir, me sir can I answer that? But it did exist.......as MVT thought of it and it formed in his consciousness it became real and as such existed ...albeit on another plane of reality. Just because you didnt actually produce it...doesnt mean you might have or could have if you were so inclined. MVT having your profile so deeply ingrained in his psyche..merely did the exercise for you and since it was to your profile, it was to all intents and purposes done by you. Simple really.
How can you deem something that doesn't exist as being wrong?

[craic]

David Shearers Brain? Yetis? Man made global warming?

[Jay]

Anyway back to Telecom the share !

I see another rise so far this morning - just wish I had bought some back at bit

[Hoop]

The 13th March chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3593-TEL-%28Telecom-NZ-Ltd%29/page156) (not shown here) was posted to identify cycle reversals. TEL is suspected to be in Bull cycle...This suspected bull has been around a long time, its been so slow that it has yet to confirm itself as true..The breaking of primary resistance (2.85) will be the ultimate confirmation...

the chart below highlights the advantages/disadvantages of predictability...TA can not foretell the future...however repeating patterns can give the Chartist investor better mathematical odds of where the stock could be going and offers better timing into and out of the Stock.
Applying the Trading range Strategy within the Wedge pattern would've netted the investor a tidy sum.
The re-entering of the buy and Hold investors identifying the bear/suspected bull cycle reversal (bottom in 2010) would have seen OK but not spectacular results....but it could? still be early days for the B&H investors.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL13052013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL13052013.png.html)


OOh..oooh me sir, me sir can I answer that? But it did exist.......as MVT thought of it and it formed in his consciousness it became real and as such existed ...albeit on another plane of reality. Just because you didnt actually produce it...doesnt mean you might have or could have if you were so inclined. MVT having your profile so deeply ingrained in his psyche..merely did the exercise for you and since it was to your profile, it was to all intents and purposes done by you. Simple really.

Yes very simple :t_up:..I should've seen that...silly me :blink:

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok if one were to utilize the analysis (not that i necessarily buy into the MJ'o:p) ......that a reasonable observation could be the next point that one could look for low entry (assuming it doesnt do the unthinkable and break through the previous high) could be in the 2.28 area?
The 13th March chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?3593-TEL-%28Telecom-NZ-Ltd%29/page156) (not shown here) was posted to identify cycle reversals. TEL is suspected to be in Bull cycle...This suspected bull has been around a long time, its been so slow that it has yet to confirm itself as true..The breaking of primary resistance (2.85) will be the ultimate confirmation...

the chart below highlights the advantages/disadvantages of predictability...TA can not foretell the future...however repeating patterns can give the Chartist investor better mathematical odds of where the stock could be going and offers better timing into and out of the Stock.
Applying the Trading range Strategy within the Wedge pattern would've netted the investor a tidy sum.
The re-entering of the buy and Hold investors identifying the bear/suspected bull cycle reversal (bottom in 2010) would have seen OK but not spectacular results....but it could? still be early days for the B&H investors.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TEL13052013.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TEL13052013.png.html)



Yes very simple :t_up:..I should've seen that...silly me :blink:

[Poet]

Telecom outlines strategy to reset for long-term success8:39am, 16 May 2013 | FORECAST
Telecom outlines strategy to reset business for long-term success
Telecom is holding its 2013 investor day today, at which Chief Executive Simon Moutter and his leadership team will set out Telecom's new strategy for its New Zealand business to investors and analysts.
The strategy outlines the steps Telecom is taking in New Zealand to shift from a traditional fixed and mobile infrastructure company to a future-oriented, competitive provider of communication, entertainment and IT services delivered over its networks and the Cloud.
Investor day presentations will be released via the stock exchange from 1pm today. In advance of the investor day, Telecom has released the following financial information which is contained in the presentations.
FY13 operating earnings guidance
Telecom's adjusted EBITDA guidance for FY13 remains $1,040 million to $1,060 million, albeit management expect that the result will be near the bottom end of this range, primarily due to a further increase in price competition in the fixed line market and continued margin pressure in Gen-i. This guidance excludes one-off restructuring costs associated with the FY13 cost reduction and strategic change programme.
Update on FY13 cost reduction and strategic change programme
On 28 March, Telecom provided an estimate of the impacts of its change programme, as it seeks to build a leaner, more agile organisation with a competitive cost structure centred around the right portfolio of business activities. As a further update, Telecom now expects one-off restructuring costs in FY13 of $100 million to $130 million (an increase from $70 million to $80 million estimated on 28 March). The increase reflects the inclusion of estimated non-cash accounting adjustments associated with the cessation of business activities (such as onerous lease contracts and other asset write offs), which will be finalised at year end. Approximately half of the expected total restructuring costs are non-cash in nature.
As noted on 28 March, Telecom expects to reduce its number of full time equivalent employees from 7,530 at 31 December 2012 to approximately 6,300 to 6,600, by the middle of 2013. As a result, Telecom believes that payroll costs (Opex and Capex) will reduce by $100 million to $120 million on an annualised basis. The Opex element of the savings is necessary to offset anticipated declines in legacy revenues in the FY14 year.
These figures exclude the addition of approximately 140 Revera employees arising from the recent acquisition of that business.
Capital Expenditure
Telecom's Capex guidance for FY13 is unchanged at approximately $460 million.
Over the subsequent three financial years, Telecom anticipates investing on average $400 million to $500 million per annum in Capex as it executes the new strategy. The phasing of this investment may vary from year to year, due to the timing of one-off payments such as the acquisition of spectrum. The majority of this investment will be focused towards mobile network investment, the Optical Transport Network and business re-engineering initiatives.
The re-engineering programme, in conjunction with future initiatives to reduce costs through a centrally-driven, business-wide simplification and cost reduction programme is targeting $100 million to $200 million of ongoing annualised benefits, with benefit realisation predominantly from FY15.

[Major von Tempsky]

Strange, can't see why the gloom. So if EBITDA guidance is reduced from $1.04 billion to $1.6 billion range, to the bottom end of the range....assume the midpoint of the range of $1.05 billion as any normal conservative investor would, then at the most we have a reduction to $1.04 billion and the 7cps shareprice fall today is about a 2.7% fall vs a fall in EBITDA of less than 1%. Illogical, considering the better focussed more constructive planning and actions now taking place.
Similarly yesterday, Australia has a weird Budget, China reduces its growth rate. Solution? Punish New Zealand, punish TEL which now has a only a tiny involvement in Australia and zilch involvement with China.

But then as I pointed out earlier this year the NZX does not behave in a logical analytical way and TEL is held mostly overseas as a tiny fraction of worldwide portfolios and overseas investors can afford to write down TEL without even noticing it.
Which gives a chance to NZ earnings investors :-)

[Hoop]

Ok if one were to utilize the analysis (not that i necessarily buy into the MJ'o:p) ......that a reasonable observation could be the next point that one could look for low entry (assuming it doesnt do the unthinkable and break through the previous high) could be in the 2.28 area?

It seems TEL has again tested its 2.70 - 2.85 Resistance zone and failed again. A fall back to the 2.28 area would be the base support atm..assuming it gets that far down. Assuming TEL is a lazy bull (still unconfirmed) there are tons of minor support areas that TEL could easily bounce up off especially in the 2.40 -2.50 zone to retest and attempt again to breach that 2.85.. If TEL is a bull that 2.85 will break at some point in time...so it is isn't that unthinkable.

With the 2.40 breakout, the wedge pattern has ended. My first look of interest now is the MA200 which is rising (indicating an uptrend) toward 2.42c.

Disc: With many strong up trending stocks elsewhere there is no reason to be trading in TEL at this moment in time. The NZX investors are focused elsewhere ..

...The above is a good academic exercise though ...It is a good bear market (rowing) strategy........Practice is good.....keeps one mind sharp for the next Bear cycle..eh?

[zymwh]

Telecom restructure to cost $30-60m more

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8679372/Telecom-restructure-to-cost-30-60m-more

[RazorX]

Wow, that retest was not liked at all!

Wonderful! We are on the way back down to the 220s. Anyone with cash to top up?

One can see support and resistance working quite well with Tel... if you believe in TA.

(Disc I believe in TA and hold Tel)

[JayRiggs]

TEL gone down heaps today, down to 2.42.
Maybe people are selling, so they can buy more in the SUM placement?
I'm keen to top up for both!

[Hoop]

TEL gone down heaps today, down to 2.42.
Maybe people are selling, so they can buy more in the SUM placement?
I'm keen to top up for both!

Hmmm ..hadn't thought about that angle...it could be your SUM effect thought... but is SUM big enough to move a market??

My mind was pre-occupied on the thought that money could be leaving NZ (down under).

[glasszon]

TEL is so much bigger than SUM, highly doubt a potential SUM placement would move the market this much.

[BIRMANBOY]

I'm, more interested in cheap shares than shear sheeps.
I wish I had the cash! TA is out of favour with me right now, going for the long-term holding(s) for now. Good luck to all who play with TEL over time;

You can shear a sheep many times... ;)

[BlackCross]

TEL gone down heaps today, down to 2.42.
Maybe people are selling, so they can buy more in the SUM placement?
I'm keen to top up for both!

UBS had a note out yesterday advising a move from Telecoms/defensives and into financials/banks.

Personally I'm also a bit nervous regarding the CEO's quest for growth. I (and possibly some fund managers) remember only too well telecom companies Marconi and Cable and Wireless's similar change in strategies and the huge collapse in value that then followed.

And I think I've previously mentioned that some dividend chasing ETF's will also be dumping TEL (because of a reduction in dividend).

Add some TA and it's perhaps not surprising that it's fallen 9% in a week.

[craic]

cashed up when it went into the 250's. Annoyed that I wasn't quick enough to get out in the 260's. Now if it DID go down to the 220's I would be a very happy camper. That would allow me to buy my lot back and have about 10G,s pocket money.

[craic]

I was watching this one closely and noted that the big drop started 24 hous before the announced reduction in the forecast. I have found this to be common on the NZ market. There are many involved in the production of the figures and I believe there are more nods and winks than any man dreams of. It doesn't take a large movement or movements in shares, just a handful to reduce the price. Most of the shares in TEL are owned by a small number of holders, the big Australian Banks and a couple of others. They simply hold, and mop up any reasonable parcels at whatever buy figure they are using.

[pierre]

CHECK YOUR TELECOM BILL!

I had an interesting chat with a pleasant fellow from the Telecom call centre yesterday. I had checked my phone bill for the first time in ages - it's direct debited so I usually just bin it. I noticed a charge on it for wiring maintenance - $4.95 per month. We're in a new home and don't need their maintenance so I called Telecom to ask to have it removed. "Happy to do that" said Luke "and have you got a minute so I can run through your account to see what else we can save you."

He advised me that I was on an old landline/broadband plan and wasn't using even half of the data I was paying for so switched me to a new plan that saves me $40 a month. Then he checked our mobile usage and found that my wife wasn't using her available voice minutes so chopped her plan cost by $10 a month.

All up - our monthly comms bill is now lowered by $55 a month or $660 a year - a totally unexpected dividend.

So, if you haven't checked your Telecom bill lately - have a good look a it today. Then call 123 and ask them to check your account to see what you can save.

I'm happy to share this news with fellow Sharetraders but don't want it to spread too far or the TEL SP might drop even further!

Cheers

Pierre

[Grimy]

I received a letter from them last week wanting to up my data allowance and reduce the price by $6 a month. So I looked at their plans and you can tailored them slightly to your needs. I now have basically what I had a day ago (less a bit of data allowance that I was never near using) and am $16 a month better off.
I certainly pays to check things from time to time.
I'm keeping our wiring maintenance contract as we live by the sea and corrosion is a problem.

[Jay]

Thanks pierre
Just saved myself $6 per month as well

P.S. Don't own any TEL shares at present so won't affect me;)

[blockhead]

There are other suppliers offering cheaper deals so I guess they are being proactive in trying to hold their existing customers...before they jump ship.

[JayRiggs]

Hmmm ..hadn't thought about that angle...it could be your SUM effect thought... but is SUM big enough to move a market??

My mind was pre-occupied on the thought that money could be leaving NZ (down under).

Yeah you guys are right. I was only thinking SUM had something to do with it, because when SKT announced New Corp was selling their stake, the markets went down heaps.

[craic]

managed to sell and buy my lot a couple of times on the way down. Noticed that in the first hour or so the price was at its lowest, then went right up in the early afternoon for a while. With a $350 per 1cps difference, it wasn't hard to make enough for my next overseas trip. I bought back at 240cps so I may have a long wait before I can trade again. If my nerve had held down to the present level I would really have been better off but I can leave it alone now and get on with next winters firewood.

[BIRMANBOY]

I'm thinking TEL should get into the travel business Craic....then you can be vertically integrated:)
managed to sell and buy my lot a couple of times on the way down. Noticed that in the first hour or so the price was at its lowest, then went right up in the early afternoon for a while. With a $350 per 1cps difference, it wasn't hard to make enough for my next overseas trip. I bought back at 240cps so I may have a long wait before I can trade again. If my nerve had held down to the present level I would really have been better off but I can leave it alone now and get on with next winters firewood.

[craic]

I hold quite a few and I know, with some certainty, that over the next eight or ten months I will be able to trade and make a substantial profit. The only uncertainty is whether or not I can be in to collect a half-yearly dividend. But then when I'm feeling down, all I have to do is think of the poor fellows who invested in Mighty River Power, CNU and Wellington Drive Technologies and I feel much better.

[Poet]

I hold quite a few and I know, with some certainty, that over the next eight or ten months I will be able to trade and make a substantial profit. The only uncertainty is whether or not I can be in to collect a half-yearly dividend. But then when I'm feeling down, all I have to do is think of the poor fellows who invested in Mighty River Power, CNU and Wellington Drive Technologies and I feel much better.

I'm following Craic's strategy. I was out at $2.42 on the way down so currently sitting out waiting to come back in

[BIRMANBOY]

Got more today at 225.5..price seems to be flattening out a bit. Cant see too much more downside on these. Also possibility of overseas buyers coming in since low price combined with lower kiwi dollar. Sitting and waiting requires nerves of steel and cohones the size of coconuts:laugh:
I'm following Craic's strategy. I was out at $2.42 on the way down so currently sitting out waiting to come back in

[Snow Leopard]

Got more today at 225.5..price seems to be flattening out a bit. Cant see too much more downside on these. Also possibility of overseas buyers coming in since low price combined with lower kiwi dollar. Sitting and waiting requires nerves of steel and cohones the size of coconuts:laugh:

Seems to be doing a good impression of an un-tethered brick, and on little volume the last two days.
Hopefully it will bounce in much the same way as bricks don't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[QOH]

Got more today at 225.5..price seems to be flattening out a bit. Cant see too much more downside on these. Also possibility of overseas buyers coming in since low price combined with lower kiwi dollar. Sitting and waiting requires nerves of steel and cohones the size of coconuts:laugh:

I got in late today at that price too.
Even if the dividend halves, won't be much worse than other returns around that I'm getting.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes, based on 225.5 and last years dividend would be returning 8.88% gross dividend yield. How can you lose? Upside potential looks promising and strong divie. Cant see it halving myself but then I'm an optimist so I would say that.
I got in late today at that price too.
Even if the dividend halves, won't be much worse than other returns around that I'm getting.

[BIRMANBOY]

Soon to be cleared for takeoff.
http://th05.deviantart.net/fs70/PRE/i/2012/060/6/1/the_flying_brick_by_uberdspy-d4rfr3b.jpg


Seems to be doing a good impression of an un-tethered brick, and on little volume the last two days.
Hopefully it will bounce in much the same way as bricks don't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[craic]

I turned my laptop on a few minutes ago to pay my visa A/C from the profits I made from TEL in the past couple of weeks. I have held this one since it was down in the 180's and even before that. The volatility is your friend - if you have the balls to trade, and the quantity.

[BIRMANBOY]

2.35 Boing...boing. Hows that PT..defying the laws of quantum physics, gravity and meeting the expectations of TA...everyone happy.
Seems to be doing a good impression of an un-tethered brick, and on little volume the last two days.
Hopefully it will bounce in much the same way as bricks don't.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[JayRiggs]

Has dipped below 2.20.
Any reason TEL has been going down a bit lately?
Something to do with the falling NZ dollar perhaps.

[Poet]

I'm joining the register again at these levels [for better or for worse? time will tell I guess]

[craic]

Judging by the large sales around midday, I suspect a lot of frightened Australians are cashing up and heading for the caves. They believe that they and their economy is in trouble but is so far ahead of NZ that we must be about to implode. Some actually believe that Russel Norman is the NZ Prime Minister. My only regret is that I bought back in too early and didn't wait. Now looking to scrape up another 10Gs to buy a few more. The lowest I have ever been in at was in the 185cps bracket but that was some years ago.

[Shall0w]

while I'm unhappy with the drop as its below my average buy in price for existing holdings, I'm dead tempted to grab some more at this price.. Moutter has made his cuts, should be upwards for the company from here.

[Joshuatree]

Dow futures - 83 atm . Charlie Aitken thinking possible USA mkt crash imminent. Biggest vol in 2 years by far re 27 million shares. Im keeping some powder dry .

[Lease]

The adjustment will create excellent buying opportunities. Even if Tel dividend drop to 10C, it still has 5% yield at price of $2, better off putting money in bank.

US market indeed need a huge adjustment as it has just gone too far. I like it, have cash on hand to prepare to buy.

[Joshuatree]

Correction , thanks Sparky , i got that bit 2nd hand. cheers

[Zaphod]

No wonder these providers tell us there's a lack of interest....ehhh:(:(:mad ;:

The Govt needs to kick someone's arse over this.

Are there other providers out there or is this brand new ultra fast fibre technology still in its testing stage/just released infancy version as the giant telco try to convince us..

Answer: of course there are and some have been operating for some time now
Ultrafastfibre's webpage has a list of internet fibre providers...a couple seen to have good deals including no data caps (http://www.ultrafastfibre.co.nz/get-ultrafast)

The Telecom UFB service is only available in areas where Chorus is the Local Fibre Carrier (LFC). I suspect, based on the extensive internal UFB trials that were conducted with Chorus, that this is because Telecom want to be absolutely sure that the performance and reliability of the non-Chorus LFC networks meets their requirements, although I'm also sure that financial negotiations also play a part in this.

IMO the Government must think that there are an adequate number of choices of UFB service provider and so they are not concerned that two of the biggest players cannot yet deliver to every city or town.

[craic]

I have a problem - this discussion is not about the market or share. It belongs on the "Off Market " discussion.

[777]

It is though the product being marketed by the company that the company depends on for future viability.

[Hoop]

I have a problem - this discussion is not about the market or share. It belongs on the "Off Market " discussion.

OK...My post is gone!!!!.... The Telecom thread is back to pure market/ share discussion posts again .......It is here instead on the Inane babble thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7654-Inane-babble&p=415534#post415534) :D on the off market discussion page.

I'll probably end up deleting it from there ...shortly.

[Hoop]

No No - for the benefit of Futurist who knows everything, there is a thread on NZ Tech trends too.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9218-NZX-Tech-Stock-thread-for-discussions-on-trends-in-technology

:-)

Hmmmm https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSq7UZ5xG5tspfMQKvg4Ev0VX5isSbPD kz05_HmjiuPBkqVK4J3

[Zaphod]

I'm still happy to discuss the Telecom LFC issue if anyone wants to carry that on. IMO this is a big issue for the company.

[sharer]

OK...My post is gone!!!!.... The Telecom thread is back to pure market/ share discussion posts again .......It is here instead on the Inane babble thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7654-Inane-babble&p=415534#post415534) :D on the off market discussion page. I'll probably end up deleting it from there ...shortly.

I've just had a quick read of your tortured cry of frustration. It is not "insane babble" at all.
I thought it was very relevant to some of the things i am contemplating about investments in Chorus & also Telecom.

[CJ]

Telecom have commenced selling VDSL today.
(http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/8891915/Telecom-begins-selling-faster-broadband)
Just signed up over the phone. Given it costs $10 extra compared to ASDL with the same cap, why have you upgraded?

Is it for better performance on existing services you use? (what do you think is being held back by speed on connection?)

Do you expect to start using any new serviced now due to increased speed? English football?