My NetFone (MNF) another VOIP

[tommy]

Am I the only IDIOT who is buying in the current market climate?

Oh well, I still believe the only way is up for VOIP and internet advertising, so I bought My Net Fone (MNF), a VOIP service provider listed yesterday.

http://www.myfone.com.au/

I didn't buy into IPO at 20c (bummer... had no cash), now they are trading at 24.5c. Not bad when the entire market was suffering from a blood bath!

Market cap is only 4 million. I have seen their products at Harvey Norman and Harris Technology since last year, obviously they do not have as much exposure as engin (ENG) but that will change, now that they have a war chest ready for marketing efforts. Considering that ENG and FRE managed to rise so much without turning cash-flow positive, purely on the back of news on alliances, media exposure and the VOIP hype, I think MNF has some serious upward potential, although there are substantial risks involved in investing in a tech start-up like this. IMHO, few good announcements will be enough to the hype for this stock.

If you are looking for a roller coaster ride, take a look at

_____
Prospectus:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/7cbc7cd1f30505c744dabee388ec69f7/ASX-MNF-410249.pdf

Financial statements:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/d662ee4a52d111f968528bdac774db7c/ASX-MNF-411635.pdf

PC user product of the year 2005:
http://www.myfone.com.au/downloads/PCUserJan06MyNetFoneAward.pdf
____
And some news articles:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19182591-643,00.html

My Net Phone rings up a rise
May 19, 2006

INTERNET phone-call provider My Net Fone got off to a solid start on the Australian Stock Exchange yesterday, listing at a premium.

Shares in the Sydney-based MNF made their debut at 22c, 2c higher than the 20c issue price, before closing at 24.5c.

"It went well. We're very pleased with it; it's obviously a significant milestone for the company," managing director Andy Fung said.

In its initial public offer, the young company raised $2.5 million by offering 12.5 million shares.

MNF provides a service that lets people make telephone calls over broadband internet connection using VoIP (voice over internet protocol) technology, with cheaper rates than fixed-line telephone services. MNF offers untimed local calls for as little as 10c.

Mr Fung said MNF would use most of the money raised in the IPO to fund an expanding marketing program and hire more staff.

Competition in the VoIP market is hotting up, with MNF joining independent providers FreshTel and Engin on the ASX. The big players have signalled they are interested in VoIP services.
_____
http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,19186945%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

Solid start for VoIP group
Ross Kelly
MAY 19, 2006
INTERNET phone call provider My Net Fone (MNF) got off to a solid start on the Australian Stock Exchange, listing at a premium.

At 11:00am yesterday shares in the Sydney-based MNF debuted at 22c, 2c higher than the 20c issue price, before closing at 24.5c.

"It went well, we're very pleased with it, it's obviously a significant milestone for the company," said managing director Andy Fung.

In its initial public offer (IPO) the young company raised $2.5 million by offering 12.5 million shares.

MNF provides a VoIP service that lets people make telephone calls over broadband.

VoIP can offer cheaper rates than fixed line telephone services - MNF, for example, offers untimed local calls for as low as 10 cents.

Mr Fung said MNF would use most of the money raised in the IPO to fund an expanding marketing program and hire more staff. A move he says will increase awareness of VoIP technology and the credibility of the company.

Competition in the VoIP market is hotting up, with MNF joining the likes of independent providers FreshTel and Engin on the ASX.

The big players too have signalled they are interested in developing their own VoIP services.

A Telstra spokesperson said the company would definitely release a product to the market "when the time is right".

[tommy]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Hi Tommy, looks interesting. Have you had the chance to do any "Peter Lynch" investigative analysis i.e. what do people (e.g. sales people at Harvey Norman, Dick Smith & customers) have to say about it.

"net profit of $177,415" in that article should read "net loss".


When I first used my own two feet to determine retailers' perception of engin and its competitors, I remember staff at Harvey Norman and Harris Technology speaking very highly of My Net Fone. In fact, some staff even told my NOT to buy engin and recommended MNF! That said, it was a time when engin was having major problems in network reliability (engin was absolutely terrible in Dec and Jan) so I'm not sure how things have changed since then. I am aware that MNF has had problems too according to Whirlpool (http://forums.whirlpool.net.au/forum-threads.cfm?f=107) which is an excellent place to get/share geek information but it appears that compared to other engin's rivals like Astratel, MNF does not have a big following.

I will give you an update though as soon as I find some time to visit a few stores.

engin is clearly better known (brand name is out there with lots of ads) but that doesn't mean MNF can have a slice of the growing VOIP pie. I purchased MNF simply because it is only in its infancy, I haven't got much to lose when market cap is only $4 million when engin (ENG) is $94 million, Freshtel (FRE) is $80 million and even BroadIP (BRO) is $21 million, all of which are still burning cash at this stage. I am aware that MNF is 100% speccy, but all VOIP stocks have made me richer this year so I'm having another punt[8D]

Not many people know about MNF still, and it might take months for the stock to move, but considering the nature of this crazy sector, it's not impossible for VOIP stocks to become multi-baggers in a span of a few months on the back of some announcements with some positive forward looking statements, as have ENG, FRE and BRO have done. But high risk, high return investment so not for the conservative investor for sure[:o)]

[ionjudge]

Hey tommy

nice to see you across here for VOIP discussion

just a few notes about MNF

note the related party dealing
whereby MNF pays $60,000 per month
ie $6 per subscriber per month to a related party

*note the comments that wages are under what is realistic, because of the start up stuff etc


ie add $720,000 to the costs per year
plus normal employee wages

i realise all the VOIP providers are going backwards
but

when a company puts a spin on the stock for an IPO that is so obvious it makes me feel that the company is decieving us!!!


PLUS

say for the end DEC 05 figures
the of subscribers was say half what it is now (i can not see reference)
say the june 05 figures was 2000
ie average subscribers were 3500 for the billing 6 months
(i think this would be reasonable)

then 500,000 income / 3500 / 6 months - $24 per month per customer

i feel that this is NOT sustainable
(cf engin = $45 / month)


i might buy 1,000,000 of these stock for a speculative buy when they touch 0.1c per share


ij

[brettdale]

Good news expected from this upcoming friday's meeting?

Could boost the price???

Then again Im only going on what I have been told by a friend, and there is no discussion about this on the Aussie stockmarket boards.

[shane_m]

engin sucks, pretty bad voice quality when I ring NZ. Lot of people are going for the new virgin deal, which gives you broadband and interweb for $60 per month.

[brettdale]

They have passed 40 thousand customers.

Gross revenue grew by 39% in the last quarter.

They have released a media statement today

[brettdale]

60000 paying customers up 7500 in 3 mths.

[brettdale]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090219/pdf/31g4l7vvn6b2kc.pdf

Very impressive.

Highlights included Gross revenue and Gross profit up 52.9% and 97.8% from the corresponding period last year.

[percy]

Well, could be wrong there. Price is lifting nicely and very short depth in the sell side. Only problem now is that there isn't much of a chance to top up :-(
If its anything like VOC it could get a strong run up due to lack of sellers.

Oh.KW,you have done it again.!!

[mark100]

KW, after you brought this stock to our attention I had a look and decided to pick up a few. I have only managed to get a small amount however at 17.5-18c.

It looks very cheap however most of last years earnings came from the second half. Do you have a view on if this second half result is sustainable? Or do you think its the start of some serious earnings growth?

The AGM presentation says the half year result is expected to be higher than last year (not much of a hurdle considering it was very low) but then they do say at the bottom off the page that they expect to grow profitability again this year.

Definitely worth some sort of investment at the current price but the first half result will probably be the real indicator. However by then the price might have already doubled!

[drillfix]

KW, to me it looks like its heading towards the 18.5c 50% Fib line there and then failing that, to 16c at the 38.2% Fib.

Lots of stocks on the run atm.

Seems the XAO and XJO are having a breather, maybe this week with a bounce due for next week, but I guess it depends what happens with other markets.

Its not just this stock, there are many stocks, and as you know, all which rise and fall with the Tide of the overall markets.


ps:

Forgot to mention that it also could go the other way towards the 61.8% Fib line at 21c
(which also happens to be where the 60 ema is too)

[percy]

Hi KW,Are you still following these ? Still keen?
Could not find the thread but ILF are strong to-day.

[steve fleming]

MNF have announced an internallly funded related party acquisition that will significantly increase revenues and profit.

Market cap = $9m

NPAT (FY12) = $2m
NPAT (FY13) = $4m

Yeilding an 8% div as well.

Looks pretty cheap,

[crooky]

G' Day Steve ,

actually have been signed up with My net Fone for a few months now , never did realise they were public listed , duh.
Service is fantastic , ( had a nightmare experince with TPG , mate a circus , endless hours on phone getting jerked off )
Anyhow I'm a happy customer , thanks for bringing this to light.
On my watchlist.

cheers

[percy]

Thank you KW,steve fleming,and crooky for your comments.I finally brought 10,000 at 18cents today.taken a while as very thinly traded.

[percy]

Good on you KW,I am enjoying the ride with MNF and ILF,while my AIR are "repositioning" themselves.

[percy]

Today's earnings upgrade for 2012 full year pushed the SP up 37.5% .
But wait there's more,now up 38.5%

[drillfix]

Dont really know how a stock like MNF can make such moves when in reality they offer such a cr@p service or support for their product, as in a mate of mine signed up, they never acknowledged, a week went past, he has heard nothing. MNF has also taken his money out from his card on the day he signed up, and only to then post on another internet forum somewhere to ask what are these guys all about which then a Rep joins in days later and says contact me. Though, really, what kind of business model is that.

Sure there may be few shares but there are a **** heap of customers that I know of who are just not happy with MNF so I wonder if, should, or will this filter down to their bottom line!

[percy]

Dont really know how a stock like MNF can make such moves when in reality they offer such a cr@p service or support for their product, as in a mate of mine signed up, they never acknowledged, a week went past, he has heard nothing. MNF has also taken his money out from his card on the day he signed up, and only to then post on another internet forum somewhere to ask what are these guys all about which then a Rep joins in days later and says contact me. Though, really, what kind of business model is that.

Sure there may be few shares but there are a **** heap of customers that I know of who are just not happy with MNF so I wonder if, should, or will this filter down to their bottom line!

Gee Wiz,Just when I was starting to count the $s I have made too.!!!! Great wake up call. Buggar,but thanks.!!!!

[percy]

Or you could just check all the positive reports on Whirlpool about MNF support, like this one
"I have to say every time I've called MNF tech support it's freakin' un-nerving — because they know what the hell they're doing, and if needed will go through things at great length and in detail. It's un-nerving because you rarely get great service like that on the phone nowadays."

Back to counting profits.!!!! I did add to my position at 29cents recently,after reading the company presentation.

[drillfix]

KW,
Do you think I am making my previous post up?

With regards to WP, well I know WP very well, I have been a member there for donkeys, and yes the Other ISP thread shows many posts about MNF which are not too good, in fact most posts are horrific if you read them with the occasional few that are happy ones.

This has nothing to do with how many people they sign up, and from a direct source of how my friend has been treated form a business perspective, they have got the thumbs down from me, yet they pay a good Divi and the sp moves in bursts when the sector catches a light which is great for a trader/investor.

As for the poor guy who gets no communication from a ASX listed company who has taken his money from CC then it stinks, IMO~!

[drillfix]

Not sure. But when customers dont bother to phone companies to see what is going on, but go online to some forum to bitch about the fact that the company was supposed to guess that the customer had a problem, seems to me to not be a problem with their support but the person.

If you buy something from ebay, or an online store, do you actually phone up that store after you bought something? I dont nor dont know many who do unless there are circumstances to warrant that.

As I said, my mate signed up "online" like many or every ISP have the option of doing.

Also, he never just posted straight away after he signed up, in fact it was me who told him to post on WP, because after he signed up, he phoned me and asked how long will it take before he hears something from them, it was over a week with NO communication, so that is when I told him to either phone the Co, or go to Whirlpool and make a post, which he did.

Question is, why the no communication and why take his money or vice versa?

Every other online dealing that I have had usually communicate immediately to a day later offering confirmation, extra's or the kitchen sink if you want it, but for whatever reason not MNF and being a ASX listed company, wtf do they do this?

[drillfix]

As it was an online order there wouldnt have been a person to even notice that the order got lost. So thats why there was no communication. The payment gateway component is totally separate from MNF (or any other company). So if you dont contact them, how are they supposed to know there is a problem? If the company didnt get the order, how was it supposed to contact the customer?

KW, you just dont get it do you!

We are talking about an internet company here, with a payment that was used on the internet, for the internet, to a company that makes money from selling the internet, amongst a few other things!

If MNF have no control or communication from their payment gateway (which is how they get paid) then you cannot blame that on the customer (or potential customer) as you seem to be doing.

Is it his fault that he wanted to give his hard earned $$ to subscribe to the MNF service not to realise they do not process online applications, or so it seems, because that is the 1st and foremost fact to look at, not why didn't he call (the 2nd fact).


Anyway, not exactly sure why you are defending MNF and blaming a potential customer.

[drillfix]

Massive volumes gone through today, on a normally illiquid stock. Where did all the stock come from? Must be Drilly offloading :-)

LOL your classic KW :)

[percy]

Which reminds me - I am still waiting on an online purchase from NZ to arrive - so yet another follow up required <sigh>. Bloody dodgy New Zealanders!!!

Most probably lost by Qantas.!!!!!!
After all said and done,there is more said than done,MNF SP was up 50% today.

[drillfix]

Can you tell I used to work for (several) well known ISP's
:-)

HaHaa~! Let me see, Telstra, Optus, iiNet, Internode, Oh but please say not TPG :P

[h2so4]

Seems to me the Symbio purchase is proving an excellent acquisition. NPAT looks to be well above the 5 times asking price of $6m, a bargain for MNF.

Sorry Drilly:( I'm a MNF voip customer and now shareholder.

Percy are you the Fagan of ST? You remind me of Fagan counting his profits in the poor house.:D

[percy]

Seems to me the Symbio purchase is proving an excellent acquisition. NPAT looks to be well above the 5 times asking price of $6m, a bargain for MNF.

Sorry Drilly:( I'm a MNF voip customer and now shareholder.

Percy are you the Fagan of ST? You remind me of Fagan counting his profits in the poor house.:D

Completely wrong.I am more like that other great Charles Dicken's character;Mr.Micawber,"well positioned" for the upturn.!!!

ps Have you sold your PGCOAs?

[percy]

Get this - two weeks to travel from NZ to Aus by priority air mail. Hate to see the slow mail option!

Blame must be shared by Qantas and Australian Post.
We do not have those sort of problems in NZ. lol.

[h2so4]

Completely wrong.I am more like that other great Charles Dicken's character;Mr.Micawber,"well positioned" for the upturn.!!!

ps Have you sold your PGCOAs?

Yes I converted my PGCOAs to a loss........stink aye?:(

I think if there is any drop in cashflow in the 3rd quarter it will be a major setback for PGC. So following on from my post on the PGC thread, I am now even more uncertain about where PGC is headed.

I think I have your mantra down pat. You are well positioned for the upturn.:)

[drillfix]

LOL KW,

I know the sp for mnf is rocking along, but its got nothing to do with me as I do not hold, or ever have.

My only thought with MNF specifically was why a mate had a horrific experience in communication with them and as such I find it odd that this sp rocks, nothing else.

Also, no games from me, there is no way in the world I would do this to talk up or down a stock to put a Hotcopper type ramp or down ramp on such as stock in such a fine Sharetrader community, why would I, or what would I benefit from doing this?

However another day in rome so to speak! Seem like the whole Telco sector is on the march also~!

[drillfix]

Excellent post there KW, and yep, I agree completely.

NBN, imo is overpriced, and yet they are offering these new speeds (which is great) but what exactly is the point with only such BS download caps they give.

Just like giving you a Indie 500 car and making you drive below the speed limit, its a joke.

Am now sitting on wireless wondering who to get or even test for that matter, though not a big fan of contracts.

Any recommendations? Also need to have connection quite fast unlike my mate...lol :P

ps: need at least ADSL2+, 200GB, only 300 Metres from the exchange, primarily need uptime and dont really need any support but more rather a solid connection.

[drillfix]

Yep, in Aus! (gold coast)

Only using wireless for temp purposes via my mobile phone account whilst stationary here. For Telstra, I would say for traveling then sure. Though a bit pricey for high wireless downloads usage, imo.

The other day, in near frustration nearly signed and coughed up to a Telstra Ultimate 100MB with 200GB plan that while changing phone location some fella tried to sell me. (he could do it for $90 with calls, line, and cable connected).

Would have loved it though, as the new place I am moving to is Cable v 3.0 ready.

A few issues that put me off were, budget, dont want a 24 month contract. (1 year maybe) plus hate the fact that it counts both uploads and downloads which was an ISP fashion which is complete and utter BS.

Anyway, will get there eventually :)

[drillfix]

Try negotiating with Telstra for a one year contract - might work. Check whirlpool out to see if anyone else has had success in getting the 2 year term reduced.


Good idea KW,

If they could do a 1 year contract and ditch the uploads then I am in :)

But guess I should wait till I chat to them first prior to smiling :P

[mark100]

http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/425929/mynetfone_offer_nbn_retail_wholesale_services_from _june/#closeme

Is this news expected?

[percy]

Oh KW you have done it again.!!!!!!!!

ps thanks again.

[steve fleming]

Up 10% today and now in a trading halt. Must be the season for it - VOC went into one yesterday as well. A cap raising for something? A takeover offer? Ahh, the suspense!

"Pursuant to Listing Rule 17.1, My Net Fone Limited (ASX:MNF) requests a trading halt from the ASX effective immediately pending the company’s response to ASX’s price query
letter."

Interesting - surely if they had a simple 'know nothing' response to the please explain, they could have released a response pretty quickly and avoided the TH.

So, likely that there is a price sensitive announcement. However always a bit embarrassing when the ASX pre-empts it with a please explain.

[percy]

[QUOTE=KW;376924]Damn, you realise that this probably puts Percy in the #1 spot in the competition :-)

Even harder to take when 3 out of 5 of my competition picks were/are your recommendations KW...INA,MNF and PEA.

[percy]

Pfft it was a "i know nothing" response after all that. Although they suggested they might have a couple of good contracts coming up....

Todays announcement may have been one of them;"My Net Fone Wins $20mil TAS goverment VOip contract."

[h2so4]

Ooops! They missed their $41m revenue forcast by 4%. Probably go unnoticed when they smashed their NPAT forcast by 23%.:)

[percy]

ABSOLUTELY ASTONISHING:
Revenue up 181%.
EBIDTA up 308%
NPAT up 205%.
EPS up 190%.
Dividend up 176%.
Cash $6mil.
KW as always thanks.Can't find a PEA thread;very pleased with their result and positive outlook.

[h2so4]

The news, a damn good pump, was all in their report which came out yesterday. Old news I guess, Mr Market a bit slow some days aye!

[percy]

Finished today at 92.5cents.That's incredible.!!!!!

[mamos]

Share-price has probably got a bit ahead of itself, but hopefully we get another upgrade during the year. FY14 is looking good though with the first contribution from the Tasmania contract.

[percy]

one more cent, and i have a six-bagger :-)

.... And there it is ...

well done !!!!!!!!!

[h2so4]

A sex bagger! Cool, Mr Market catching up.

[h2so4]

I don't understand how they got that sale away today for $10 = $29000 WTF! What't that a sexty sex bagger??????

[mark100]

Soon after the opening there were only 3 small sell orders of which the highest was at $10. Looks like an 'at market' buy order went through that should not have. In any case it has since been cancelled by the ASX.

I had a similar thing happen to me with APE once. I sold all my stock for a several hundred percent gain on opening although my windfall only lasted 15mins until the ASX cancelled the trade.

In any case MNF's acquisition looks a good one. I am not an expert in the sector but have held some since the profit upgrade in April earlier this year. At times it has looked a bit pricey but the acqusitions keep dragging up the value per share. I see Pie Funds has also become a fan in recent months. He seems to believe MNF will be taken over someday

[iKiwi]

Eight bagger :-)

As an early holder, are you going to quit now or you think MNF has changes of growing more in the next couple years? To make it a twenty bagger? :)

[mark100]

Must say I have lost track of what earnings they will report with all these acquisitions. But the trend has been good so I've stuck with them.

[iKiwi]

It's been quiet and trending lower the week before the acquisition update. The share price jumped the past two days because of the update. Looks like it's now peaked at $1.44
The update mostly restates the old news but also shows how much gross revenue each acquisition is expected to add.

[mark100]

On my chart its been above the 30 day moving average the whole time so no downtrend in my view. Peaked? Maybe for today or even a few weeks. But on a 3-6 month view? I highly doubt it

[Stranger_Danger]

Far out. I have a why-the-hell-did-I-let-it-doubling-to-twenty-cents-stop-me bagger.

Sigh. None held and some serious non buyers regret. Well done to anyone riding this one.

[iKiwi]

Yes, I'm talking about the short-term peak. I expect it to slide to $1.30 or lower in the meantime.
The stock is very thinly traded - it's likely that it will reach new heights after the half-year profit results on February 28th. I figure $1.60 and up if they report solid profit.

[Stranger_Danger]

I've read the book 20 times and completely agree with you. Worse still, I've applied it successfully in practice many, many times.

All of which means I have absolutely no excuse and probably deserve the taunting that is MNF's ever increasing share price!

[trackers]

well done KW!!

[percy]

Okay, I've just fallen off my chair ..... 8c more and I'm cracking a bottle of Veuve. Or maybe the magnum of Pelorus that's been looking for a good excuse to get drunk. Do you think it would it be tempting fate if I went and put it in the fridge?

Way it's going it may pay to buy a case and put the lot in the fridge.!!!!!!!
Well done.I am still there.!Thank you.

[percy]

6c away from that bottle of Veuve :-)

ENJOY.
Today's announcement is very positive.

[mark100]

Still on the slide. Including today thats 12 days without a rise. I sold when it dropped through $1.40, that had been a bit of a resistance point the prior few weeks. Picked up a small parcel at $1.22 yesterday and looking for signs of a reversal. It can't be too far off unless something has gone seriously wrong!

[mark100]

http://www.fatprophets.com.au/Member%20Area/Product%20Landing/Report%20List/Report%20Page/Article%20Page.aspx?id=8a8eb379-abb2-4cf8-8265-ca0d7226fc90&product=Australasian%20Equities&pt=paid

[h2so4]

I wouldn't argue. I just think IIN is better value.

[noodles]

Have made good money in the past on this stock. I had a quick look at the state of play given the recent decline.

They were supposed to provide guidance to the market by the end of April (says their half year report). Nothing???

Since then, we have seen a director selling.

Does not give me a lot of confidence to get back into this stock.

KW, can you see any reason for the decline (apart from general telco decline)?

[mark100]

MD told me guidance had been delayed due to the integration effort and would be out soon. That was around a month ago. It made me wary. I sold when I saw Pie Funds was reducing its holding. Picked up a pretty small parcel at $1.10 today but think I'll wait for the guidance before any serious buying

[noodles]

Why or wherefore matters not. Break the trend, its usually down from there. Unless like MNY they post a nice positive update.

A 50% decline and it hasn't broken trend?

[percy]

Working its way into a wedge formation at the moment, meaning its likely to break out soon, however whether its to the up side or the down side is yet to be determined. I sold a few this week to reduce the weighting in my portfolio, so its bound to break out to new highs now :-) Sold out of VOC as well, so expect that one to rocket too LOL

Sorry but I am enjoying a good laugh at your expense.Been there too.!!!

[percy]

Poked its little nose over the 50 day MA today - here's hoping this is the break out from that dreaded triangle formation :t_up:
4707

I have been scared to look at their chart.!!!
Report must be due?

[mark100]

I've picked up a few in the last couple of days. The sellers seemed to have thinned out and the chart looked promising. I'm a bit nervous that the report might not be up to expectations but we'll just have to see

[muss1]

Excellent result ahead of forecast. NPAT up 35% among other things. SP up 12% after announcement in what little trading time there was remaining.

Is now the time to buy? Tomorrow could be a big day as P/E current low 20s

[percy]

Today's presentation is very positive.Looking to grow EPS 21.6% to 8.49cents per share from 6.98 cents per share.
"We are well positioned."

[muss1]

Are others following MNF surprised the SP hasn't gone up further than it has? P/E is similar to the expected EPS growth so you could argue it's fairly valued going with the Peter Lynch theory. I was expecting more action after the recent volatility

[percy]

Are others following MNF surprised the SP hasn't gone up further than it has? P/E is similar to the expected EPS growth so you could argue it's fairly valued going with the Peter Lynch theory. I was expecting more action after the recent volatility

Yes maybe under valued;
PEG =PE 19.2 divided by G growth 21.6 is .88 which is well under 1 which is positive.
PEG+D = PE 19.2 divided by G growth 21,6 plus divided 3.5 is 25.1 gives us 19.2divided by 25.1 which is a very positive .75.

[mark100]

Can't say I'm much of a fan of Under the Radar, one of the more amateur newsletters out there in my view but I do agree with him here

WHY WE LIKE IT

MNF is the quiet achiever of the telco space, having utilised next generation voice over the internet protocol (VoIP) technology to build up an Australia wide infrastructure that sits along-side the likes of TPG, Telstra, Optus and iiNet. It is trading on a PE of 16 times, and represents a good opportunity for investors to gain access to a company that will benefit from the speed that will be generated by the billions spent on the national broadband network.

WHAT'S NEW?
MNF produced a full year NPAT of $4.1 from revenues of $46m and paid out 3.5 cents in dividends. The result is not comparable to the prior year because of acquisitions. More important are the expected synergies from its acquisitions. The company expects NPAT next year of $5.3m and dividends are expected to grow in line with that 22% increase. We view these figures as conservative – this truly is a growth stock.


MYNETFONE’S SHARES ARE CLIMBING

The company has been around for 10 years but it was its acquisition of Symbio in July 2011, which has supercharged this company’s earnings outlook. It is the largest provider of voice over the internet protocol (VoIP) in Australia, and the fifth largest voice network.
VoIP refers to voice, data and other communication services that use the internet as opposed to the standard landline.

Its earnings are skyrocketing because it has a cost and flexibility advantage on its Australia wide access. VoIP can save customers between 40 and 80 per cent on their communications requirements. There is some risk in the timing of the national broadband network (NBN), but there is no doubt MNF will be a massive beneficiary because it provides its customers with faster internet access, enabling VoIP to be a more cost effective way of voice communication.

STRONG FINANCIALS
Even if you don’t understand all the ins and outs of the technology, let alone the acronyms in the industry, the numbers are compelling. MNF’s revenues of $38m in fiscal 2012, climbed to $46m last year and are forecast to grow to $60m in the current year. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) was $4.4m in 2012, and reached $6.1m last year and should be well over $8m this year.

What is more impressive is that it is matched by dividend growth. The company pays out 50 per cent of its net profits in dividends and last year paid out 3.5 cents. It should pay out about 4.5 cents this year, generating it a yield of 3.3 per cent, which will grow as earnings increase.

REALLY A SOFTWARE DEVELOPER
Managing director Rene Sugo and his team’s abilities in the dark arts of coding have enabled them to build their own telephony network using next generation technology for very little cost. It only spends about $600,000 a year on capital expenditure. This means it has a cost advantage over the traditional networks.

The company has four segments, and all relate to telecommunications: 1. selling phone connections to residential market; 2. selling to small and medium sized businesses and government; 3. selling to the telecommunications re-seller market capabilities such as transferring numbers onto the internet and billing related services; 4. voice minutes trading, or selling huge volumes of voice minutes it has aggregated to re-sellers.

In the last result the contribution of all four was about the same, but it is the second and third segments that relate to the wholesale market that are the growth engine room for the company. The profits of Australia’s 700 plus telco service re-sellers are being squeezed and VoIP provides an avenue for them to maintain their margins.

M&A IS A KEY FEATURE OF MNF
Growth through further acquisition is also a key. Like iiNet before it, the company will look for acquisitions to boost its customer base that it can bring onto its network infrastructure. This is the obvious way to grow because each acquisition can double its profits. A good template is the data network provider iiNet, whose shares were as low as 56 cents in mid-2006 and are now just shy of $7. We think there is a big possibility that MNF is a future acquisition target for the likes of iiNet, or an M2 Telecommunications, for this same reason.

Being small is never easy in the telecommunications game and the delays and uncertainties around the NBN do not help the case for a large-scale take-up of VoIP. Telephony, unlike data, is all about quality.

[ozzie]

Interesting! Which newsletter would you say is the best mark100? I'm always looking for good new sources of info. :)

[percy]

Mark100.
Thank you for your post.

[muss1]

Nice shout out to MNF in the DIL thread KW. Thought I'd check back here for some more relaxed reading. We looked like breaking 1.50 recently but mr market said not yet. Will be interested to see where the price goes after October 17

[muss1]

Broken through the 1.50 mark today.. 1.49 had been touched 7 different days over the last couple of months. Could we see a bit of blue sky soon? Based on forecast it's still at a discount

[mark100]

Microequities initiated with a sell yesterday and $1.41 price target. But they have forecast $1.7m of Dep and Amort. for FY14, up from $0.7m in FY13. I think that is overly conservative

[soulman]

Microequities initiated with a sell yesterday and $1.41 price target. But they have forecast $1.7m of Dep and Amort. for FY14, up from $0.7m in FY13. I think that is overly conservative

Another example of an upgraded coy. It does do the positive post drift announcement for the share price.

As for the downgraded coy, see FGE, CDA, WTF, SIV, DWS, SMX. Man do they get slaughtered or what?

Do you hold any Mark?

[mark100]

soulman, I've pretty much been in MNF since 35c in April 2012 when they did put out a big profit forecast. I've traded it a bit over that time but I've always regarded it as a core stock for my portfolio over this time.

I've found the reason for the recent price run, Bell Potter initiated coverage on 12 Dec with a $1.80 target

[soulman]

Good investing Mark. Looks good FA and TA.

[percy]

Would hate to be one of their clients!

Cracked $2 today - another 80c and I have a 20 bagger :t_up:
Absolutely astonishing.Well done.!!

[mark100]

Pie said they have sold. So did I at $1.85-$1.95 but grabbed some back at 1.70-1.71 this morning.

Short term I think it looks toppy near $2 with the FY14 PE above 20x. That said an acquisition could bring the PE down

[mark100]

The Jan newsletter came out a couple of days ago where they disclosed MNF had been sold purely on valuation grounds

[ozzie]

Where did you get that info? Their last SSH was in July where they were down to 3.94% but I note that their December newsletter still lists MNF as one of their Substantial Positions. I can't find anything since Dec to suggest that they have sold out further.

January newsletter :)

[muss1]

Added to the ASX all ords.. Due to MNF being relatively illiquid are we expecting a noticeable increase in buy pressure with the trackers getting their quota?

[muss1]

Any ideas about what has happened to the SP today? Other than that's what markets do

[mark100]

At a guess it may have got tipped by the Motely Fool hidden gems service. A few stats in their promotional email seemed to line up with MNF

[muss1]

That would make sense. MF had then on a watchlist recently I am told? Wasn't a recommendation then

[DarkHorse]

Great to have some very astute investors on this thread - esp as I hold MNF and have been thinking of selling some to fund other purchases. Do you think they are overvalued? Likely or not to maintain their competitive position?

[muss1]

I think they are close to fully valued. NPAT is expected to increase by 38% and EPS by 26% (from memory- correct me if I'm wrong).

Current PE doesn't have much room to expand anymore which will limit gains. I will remain holding until I see evidence that they are not continuing to grow at a good clip. I wouldn't buy at these levels, but I don't think they are highly priced enough to tempt me into profit taking. My view is long term unless I think the SP has got too far ahead of itself.

[muss1]

KW,
Is MNF a company you will look to exit based on any sort of TA? We are obviously nowhere near any MAs, but is there another method you'd consider?
Cheers

[percy]

Crack the Champers, I'm celebrating my first TWENTY BAGGER!!

http://officeimg.vo.msecnd.net/en-us/images/MR900434375.jpg



Great news.
well done.!!

[mark100]

Nice result, around 5% ahead of guidance. Great cash flow, ROE etc. Strange sell off in the days leading up to it, maybe a few stop losses getting hit. Anyway I took advantage yesterday which looks a bit lucky given the strong result today.

[mark100]

To me it looked like someone was liquidating a holding and had to do it in a hurry, so orders were being placed at market, and most of the volume went through in one hour (2-3pm) on Friday and first thing on Monday morning. By end of day yesterday buyers (or maybe just one) stepped up (was that you Mark?) absorbing a lot of volume and holding the price at $2.25. Interesting that the 200 day MA held as support, but I bet there were a few stop losses triggered on the way done if they were placed on shorter MA points. Anyway, hoping normal service resumes today :-)

I bought a few at $2.22 and then at $2.12. But no, my purchase was definitely not big enough to support the price! I picked up 15,000 shares in total. I actually feel it's overpriced and just enjoying bull market valuations combined with market darling status at the moment. But if they keep growing EPS at 30% plus you could say the price is justified

[mark100]

Current P/E is 26 and yield is 1.8%. For a growth company that is not too far out there. If they do continue to grow EPS at 30%+ then their PEG is below 1 and makes it a bargain :-)
What is good is that it looks like MNF is transitioning from a small niche VOIP provider into a significant telecoms company, it reminds me of where M2 was a few years ago. With the heavy industry consolidation that has occurred, there is much less competition out there, and thus a bigger share of the market pie to grab.

On another note, the IIN share price seems to be recovering nicely after the Michael Malone sell down :-)

Yeah the PEG is still lowish but when the PE goes into the mid 20s I always get nervous, regardless of how fast they are growing!

Speaking of Michael Malone, have you looked at Speedcast? It listed today, $1.96 issue price, currently at $2.06. They are a provider of satellite network services. Malone is a Non Exec director. At the issue price it was priced at 17x FY15 NPATA and is growing quickly. Coming out of private equity is has Net debt $41m (versus FY15 EBITDA of $24m). Would appreciate your opinion given the space it's in

[mark100]

MNF back to $2.66. I feel more relaxed now :cool:

I see Stock Doctor upgraded it to a 'Star Stock' this morning

[mark100]

Unbelievable!

[percy]

I am very tempted to take some off the table, but then again, never underestimate the madness of markets! It might be my first 30 bagger :t_up: (just need to get to $4.20)

That's incredible,well done KW.

[baller18]

That's incredible,well done KW.
Damn 30 bagger!!!

[BFG]

Here we go again. Another big dump again. Odd, considering they reaffirmed guidance of 25% increase in EBITDA.

Looks like the multi-year bull run on this puppy may die. Not looking good as the MAs look set to cross...

[mark100]

Here we go again. Another big dump again. Odd, considering they reaffirmed guidance of 25% increase in EBITDA.

I still just think it's a valuation reality check. I traded the bounce, exited when the bounce stalled in the $3.20s. There has been no material acquisitions for some time so it is risky to assume 25% EPS growth too far into the future. This time around it looks more like a downtrend is forming so I will be much less likely to try and trade it, unless we get to prices around $2.50 where I consider fundamental value to be ok