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ASXIOU
26-05-2006, 08:41 PM
Floated about a year ago with the intention of developing the Puffin oil field off North Western Australia. Drilling of 2 wells (Puffin 7 and 9) has been completed and has been successful. Estimated recoverable reserves from these wells are around 10-14million barrels from P7 and 3-5million barrels from P9 both with considerable upside and due to be analysed in-depth over coming weeks.

Now here is the juicy part ;)... Recently completed flow testing from P7 has shown a sustainable flow-rate in excess of 15000bopd and the potential to flow 35000bopd when other Puffin wells are brought online later on [:0]. Oil is scheduled to start flowing from Q1 next year so at an oil price of say $70 a barrel an expected minimum of over $1m of cash inflow per day can be expected. Project financing has already been secured with CBA which only required a small amount of hedging so there is considerable upside from a booming oil price. With these reserves which will probably be increased after urther drilling and testing and the staggering flow rates AED could be earning well over $100m NPAT for the next couple of years giving it a massive amount of cash to pursue other substantial interests. Current market cap <$100m. Yep looks damn cheap on forward PE of less than 1.... [8)] didn't believe it first but can't see why it wouldn't happen?? Of course there are a few minor hurdles that need to be overcome before production starts and there will probably be some inevitable delays but definitely one to keep an eye on.....

A recent article from The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/timor-sea-project-has-the-good-oil-for-aed-investors/2006/05/21/1148150124548.html

Disc: Hold AED, please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold stocks

Moonshine
26-05-2006, 11:59 PM
Thanks for the heads up ASXIOU.

I can't fault your figures.

This could be MASSIVE.

Current mkt cap of only $90 million.

I am still rubbing my eyes.

Cheers,

Moonshine

tommy
27-05-2006, 12:07 AM
Hi all,

This sounds too good to be true[:0] Must look deeper into this one, thanks for starting the thread ASXIOU! I was looking for somewhere to park my cash and this one will be a possible candidate[:I]

mark100
27-05-2006, 02:09 AM
I picked up a few of these earlier in the week. Pattersons recently put out a report on them with EPS estimates of:

2007 $1.40 @ US$57/barrel
2008 $1.98 @ US$54/barrel

Obviously the field has a very short life based on current reserves but as ASXIOU has said the reserves have been getting upgraded and there seems to be potential for further upgrades.

Yes I think it is ridiculousy undervalued!

Mark

OneUp
27-05-2006, 12:39 PM
Looks interesting.

In their valuation, do Pattersons take account of the substantial unlisted shares and options?

Listed shares = 64.7m x $1.46 = $94.46m

Unlisted shares = 40.5m x $1.46 = $59.13

20c options = 40.5m x ($1.46 market price - strike price of 20c) = $51.03m

Current market cap = $204.6m

ASXIOU
27-05-2006, 01:19 PM
quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Looks interesting.

In their valuation, do Pattersons take account of the substantial unlisted shares and options?

Listed shares = 64.7m x $1.46 = $94.46m

Unlisted shares = 40.5m x $1.46 = $59.13

20c options = 40.5m x ($1.46 market price - strike price of 20c) = $51.03m

Current market cap = $204.6m




Yeah sorry I didn't give a fully diluted mkt cap but still in any case the figures are still extraordinary. [8)] Happy to see a broker backing up the numbers but the oil price used looks conservative so these estimates could also be susbstantially upgraded. The question that needs to be asked is what will they do with all the money? Pay it out in huge dividends and wind up the company or pursue other substantial longer-term interests? Might just be setting itself up with hope of a takeover from a big boy? Management hold a large percentage of shares so would have a big say if this was to occur.

Disc: Hold AED, please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold

laurie
27-05-2006, 01:42 PM
Took a while for people to wake up to this! been on since IPO and picked up more @ .55c! arhhh hindsight :D

cheers laurie

still has not made CommSec Margin Lending approved stock [:0]

mark100
29-05-2006, 12:27 AM
I haven't read the Pattersons report but it appears they have taken into account the fully diluted amount of shares.

The Actual cash flow should be higher than the profit as there will be a high ammortisation charge.

My very very rough calcs are:

Revenue - 14m barrels @ US$65/barrel produced over say 2yrs: US$910m
less Expense - 14m barrels @ US$20/barrel: US$280 (might be on the high side)
Gross Profit over 2yrs: US$630m

less Tax (30%) and Royalties (2.5% of Revenue): US$212m
Cash Received over 2yrs: US$418m

Less Debt to be Paid back: US$53m
Free Cash: US$365m, A$485m (0.75 conversion)
Add Cash from Options: A$8m
Total Cash Available: $493m

Fully Diluted Shares: 149.5m
Cash Backing per Share: $3.30

This cash backing needs to be discounted back to 2006 dollars plus an appropriate discount to reflect execution risk etc.

Upside comes from potential reserve increases etc.

Mark

laurie
29-05-2006, 02:33 PM
So Mark there should be enough for a maiden dividend!!

cheers laurie

mark100
29-05-2006, 02:58 PM
It looks promising!

laurie
29-05-2006, 03:37 PM
Oh I forgot to mention the words "Take Over Target"!!

cheers laurie

Bel
29-05-2006, 03:55 PM
For better or worse I now hold AED. Plenty of potential IMHO.

Dazza
29-05-2006, 04:01 PM
well im in too today at 1.50

just bring on $3 early next year mmmmm

laurie
29-05-2006, 07:39 PM
Don't forget it has the best oil around [u]"Light Sweet Crude"</u>

cheers laurie

tommy
30-05-2006, 06:10 PM
I bought a small parcel today, I don't know how long it will take for them to launch production but seems like a good takeover target indeed...

Surprised there isn't much media coverage on this one.

Bel
30-05-2006, 07:50 PM
Would you want media coverage before or after you had bought your small parcel?

tricha
31-05-2006, 01:40 AM
If it's that good, why has Credit Suisse Holding disposed of some.[?][?][?]

R U missing something or R they.

laurie
31-05-2006, 10:44 AM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

If it's that good, why has Credit Suisse Holding disposed of some.[?][?][?]

R U missing something or R they.


Maybe the problem is not because of AED!

cheers laurie

Halebop
31-05-2006, 11:25 AM
This company looks interesting to me.

Credit Suisse only became a substantial shareholder a short time ago so their mandate is obviously for a trade. The trajectory of the share price within the same short time would be very demanding to sustain (though I note the accelerated trend still has not broken).

Looking a bit weak right now so I might be tempted once it bottoms again. The current oil price would roughly indicate a $3 share price on a 20% per annum discount. New Zealanders won't be done any favours by getting dividends though.

Moonshine
31-05-2006, 11:46 AM
Hi Halebop,

What approximate level would you consider AED to "bottom" again?

From the last low (95c on 2nd May 2006) to the recent high ($1.49) yesterday, I think the 61.8% retrace would be around $1.16.

Do you think it will get that low?

TIA,

Moonshine

Halebop
31-05-2006, 12:12 PM
Hi Moonshine,

No idea! It might have fallen as far as it's going to already?

I only tend to buy when a share bounces off a support line or is rising. At the moment AED is tentatively testing it's secondary uptrend but breaking that could in theory see it fall substantially but still remain in primary uptrend (as I think you are saying?).

...But Suspect fundamentals of those mooted cash flows would stop it falling too far as long as the price of oil behaves. If we have Oil at US$65+ by the end of the year it seems likely the share price will be $3+ as well. Like most commodity companies it will surely provide a volatile ride getting there though?

Being a cautious soul I'm just happier to wait for trends to confirm. Not sure a single project oil company is a bet the house proposition either but they do look like a cheap medium term trade, despite the recent sharp price rise.

Bel
31-05-2006, 03:44 PM
I think we are looking at an over reaction of the market (over the news of the sussie sell off) but at the end of the day (or maybe tommorow) the fundamentals will once again drive up the SP over the mid term.

IMHO todays drop is purely investors second guessing Sussie holdings motives.

ASXIOU
31-05-2006, 08:51 PM
quote:Originally posted by tricha

If it's that good, why has Credit Suisse Holding disposed of some.[?][?][?]

R U missing something or R they.


Doesn't mean a thing. CS only became substantial holders on 3/5/06 so obviously were only there to trade the Puffin 7 drilling which had an excellent chance of being successful. Their messing around with the stock over the last couple of weeks has held the sp back considerably so i'd be happy to see them calm it down a bit. By my calcs they still own about 5.5m shares. Hopefully they can be a little less active with these ones. :)

tommy
31-05-2006, 09:55 PM
CS has 5.5million shares?! Hope they dump them all in one go so that I can top up more on the cheap[:p]

Dazza
31-05-2006, 10:05 PM
id prefer not to have divis
but to use the cash to buy other leases :P

laurie
31-05-2006, 10:48 PM
quote:Originally posted by Dazza

id prefer not to have divis
but to use the cash to buy other leases :P


Well the CFO told me during the IPO their aim is to return shareholder wealth thru dividends!!and that is why I jumped on back then [:p]

cheers laurie

Bel
01-06-2006, 07:05 AM
Its all right for bloody you, the profits us kiwis make is taxed bloody twice.
*grumbles*

laurie
01-06-2006, 09:58 AM
I just own shares mate I don't run the company and I reported here what I was told!

cheers laurie

Bel
01-06-2006, 03:19 PM
My complaint lies with the NZ Government never you Laurie :)

laurie
01-06-2006, 05:02 PM
No worries Bel ;) I have never liked double taxation and I believe shares should not be taxed if selling to get back in only on the profits taken out

cheers laurie

skinny
01-06-2006, 08:15 PM
Well I bought some of this today, breaking a steady stream of selling to record my first purchase in about 5 months [|)]

It seems a no brainer. I value it @$2.60 being very conservative, i.e, assuming: reserves of Puffin 7 are realized only, a slow increase in the production profile, no allowances for depreciation or ammortisation, oil prices back at US$60 over the production period, *production costs* of $US20 per barrel, and discounting of FCFs by 10%.

On the other hand, it’s quite easy to get valuations north of $4 by assuming a quicker move to max production of 35,000 barrels a day, realising P10 reserves, oil prices hanging in around $70, etc.

One variable I could not get a good handle on reading through their various releases though was the not unimportant matter of production costs. I note Mark100 assumed production costs of US$20 per barrel. However, in their prospectus mgmt state OPEX would be a fixed cost of around $US50m per annum (most of which was for leasing a VLCC for transporting the oil). If this is the case, and assuming (as is expected) that their is enough for CAPEX from the initial capital raising and the $53m debt facility, assuming costs of $20 per barrel may overstate actual costs by a factor of close to 3! If anyone could should some more light here would be much appreciated – I have not quite put the farm on it yet [:I]

Finally, if you're a kiwi no worries IMO about the tax implications of returning most of the FCF through the divvy - if all goes as planned we should be able to sell out to some Oz registered shareholder in the not too distant future for only a small discount to the dividend stream :D

tommy
02-06-2006, 01:44 PM
Investor presentation:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/382dc032b69006e08a9159f08c801553/ASX-AED-255792.pdf

ASXIOU
02-06-2006, 07:46 PM
quote:Originally posted by tommy

Investor presentation:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/382dc032b69006e08a9159f08c801553/ASX-AED-255792.pdf



Good read for those wishing to familiarise themselves with the stock. Still doesn't give any hints as to what they will do with cash but??

laurie
03-06-2006, 12:05 AM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU


quote:Originally posted by tommy

Investor presentation:
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/382dc032b69006e08a9159f08c801553/ASX-AED-255792.pdf



Good read for those wishing to familiarise themselves with the stock. Still doesn't give any hints as to what they will do with cash but??


Capital return!! :D [:p]

cheers laurie

Moonshine
09-06-2006, 12:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Halebop

Hi Moonshine,

No idea! It might have fallen as far as it's going to already?

I only tend to buy when a share bounces off a support line or is rising. At the moment AED is tentatively testing it's secondary uptrend but breaking that could in theory see it fall substantially but still remain in primary uptrend (as I think you are saying?).

...But Suspect fundamentals of those mooted cash flows would stop it falling too far as long as the price of oil behaves. If we have Oil at US$65+ by the end of the year it seems likely the share price will be $3+ as well. Like most commodity companies it will surely provide a volatile ride getting there though?

Being a cautious soul I'm just happier to wait for trends to confirm. Not sure a single project oil company is a bet the house proposition either but they do look like a cheap medium term trade, despite the recent sharp price rise.


I think there is support at $1.20 if it get's that far Halebop... am personally surprised that it is still falling.

I guess the POO relief may not help it's cause too much either.

Cheers,

Moonshine

Halebop
09-06-2006, 01:13 PM
I'm certainly keeping my eye on it but not looking too flash so far. While I think they could support a much higher valuation even on a weakish oil price, I don't see any obvious support levels, $1.17-$1.20 might be it but so might the long term trend line, maybe low 90 cents.

I'm not willing to feel brave in this market (actually in any market but particularly this market) so will give any early bounce gains up to someone else. Lets just hope the bounce comes either way!

Bel
09-06-2006, 01:28 PM
Talk about a hammering eh. Events like this makes me glad i'm not a trader considering i've bought at a peak on 3 out of my last 4 buys.

skinny
09-06-2006, 03:00 PM
Yes I have taken a bath too, a bit disconcerting as it's my first buy in ages [:I]

Agree with HB that the fundamentals can supprt a much lower oil price -- my spreadsheet suggests that for the current share price of $1.25 to be fair value oil prices would have to plummet to around $US38 per barrel. The question I ask myself is: when to buy some more [?]

Halebop
09-06-2006, 03:37 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

The question I ask myself is: when to buy some more [?]


Skinny I'll save you the trouble. I'll let you know as soon as I've bought and you can arrange for yourself and many dozens of others to follow suit afterwards. [:p]

...but bloody hell its scary so far. I almost convinced myself to buy yesterday but luckily sanity prevailed and I decided to stick to the plan of waiting a bit too long than moving a bit too early.

ASXIOU
09-06-2006, 04:26 PM
I'm now in the red too. Doesn't worry me but as this needs 12-18 months to show its full potential. I will be buying more, just waiting for a good entry. :)

Disc: Hold AED, please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold stocks

Halebop
09-06-2006, 11:37 PM
Charting this share is very hard. It just won't confirm any major trendlines. I'll stick my neck out and suggest a $1.00 support...

http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/5059/aedax03may05to11jun061lk.png

P.S. Please don't chop the head off, it's just a thought! [B)]

Bel
12-06-2006, 11:50 AM
Hmmmm, i hold the opinion that people need to keep a close eye on this because one word of a hint of warfare again in the gulf and the price will go north fast.

I'm banking on the power of averaging to save me from an another poor first entry. (been there done that lol)

Halebop
14-06-2006, 11:15 AM
Timber!!!!

ASXIOU
14-06-2006, 11:47 AM
Recovering well...[V] I was hoping for under $1 short-term. Might still happen??

Halebop
14-06-2006, 11:52 AM
For me the tentative uptrend line is about $1.10 so it's hovering around that number albeit with some significant volatility now.

The most obvious support line is below that at $1.00 otherwise maybe 85 cents.

Quite a few heroes stepping into the firing line and buying up when it gets sold heavily but can't see many winners from that process over the last week or so.

Bel
15-06-2006, 07:38 AM
WoW what a wicked bounce yesterday eh! Some lucky traders made ~18% yesterday!
I thought yesterday was very encouraging for AED SP as it showed dispite the herds clearance sale the intrinsic value of AED is still recognised.

I just wish i'd had more $$$ available to snap up the opportunity though i know there will be others.

Exciting times!

skinny
30-06-2006, 09:04 AM
Looks like the share price has consolidated nicely in the $1.30 range -- think with last nights action in US equity and oil markets good chance of an upside breakout today...

Bel
30-06-2006, 12:25 PM
Good call skinny. (so far anyway lol)

laurie
30-06-2006, 02:49 PM
Been one of my best buys @ .58cents price been held up by delays due to equipement supply [FPSO]

Issued Shares:109,000,000
Unlisted Options:40,500,000
Employees Options:2,900,000

So you see it's a tightly held stock I believe and stand to be corrected David Dix holds 38% so unless he's unhappy no takeover or at his price [:p]:D

cheers laurie

ASXIOU
01-07-2006, 09:18 PM
AA this stock does have the potential to be earning huge amounts of cash over next few years. Only downside is that the current reserves (subject to possible upgrade) are only capable of a few years production and AED at this stage is a one-trick pony. i.e other than Puffin it has nothing. I'm quite confident they will pull it off though and CBA and Westpac seem to agree by providing the financing. Lots of upside from the oil price which seems to possibly be starting another leg up to around the $80bbl mark. I have been buying a few more over last week or so. :)

Disc: Hold AED, please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold stocks

skinny
07-07-2006, 12:18 PM
Updated chart please!

p.s. who said averaging down was a dumb idea [:p]

tommy
10-07-2006, 09:11 PM
Is AED ready for a much awaited breakout? Tech analysts opinion will be highly appreciated[:I]

http://asx.netquote.com.au/charts.asp?code=aed&x=15&y=5

I hold but intend to stick this under the carpet until next year's Xmas...

tommy
16-07-2006, 02:27 PM
http://www.news.com.au/sundayheraldsun/story/0,21985,19800234-664,00.html

Glittering outlook for stocks

Anthony Black

July 16, 2006 12:00am


ANALYSTS are bullish about gold and oil, particularly at a time of Middle East tension, Indian train bombings and nuclear development programs.
They say high gold and oil prices paint a bright investment outlook for several related stocks in the next 18 months.

The gold price has risen by more 30 per cent this year and was trading at more than $US666 an ounce yesterday. Sean Conlan, of Macquarie Equities, forecasts the gold price to be at $US833 an ounce in 12 months.

"The key fundamental drivers of the current rally remain strong -- global liquidity, fund buying and inflationary fears," Mr Conlan says.

"In addition, this week's conflict between Israel and its neighbours, coupled with the Iranian and North Korean nuclear development programs, have also added further impetus to the gold price.

"Given our bullish stance regarding the gold price in the next 12 months, we expect the Australian gold sector to outperform the broader market."

Mr Conlan says Middle East tension is pushing the oil price towards $US80 a barrel.

"But other events are worth noting," he says. "Political issues in Nigeria are placing constraints on Shell's production supply. The US hurricane season is upon us and is forecast to be one of the worst in history. This may affect the oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Russian production growth is beginning to wane in response to the Yukos oil company carve-up hampering foreign investment. Demand from China, though slowing, remains robust."

BENDIGO MINING: Mr Conlan put a 12-month target of $2.50 a share on Bendigo Mining, which closed at $1.56 on Friday.

He says the company forecasts production of between 70,000 and 90,000 ounces next year from a resource base of 11 million ounces.

"Bendigo will earn more from a higher gold price because it is unhedged," he says.

AGINCOURT RESOURCES: Mr Conlan says Agincourt is diversified and is increasing gold production to meet growing demand.

"It offers good value and is trading at a discount to its peers of the same size," he says.

LIHIR GOLD: Carey Smith, of State One Stockbroking, says the PNG producer will lift production from 800,000 ounces a year to a million ounces in the next two years in response to stronger global demand for jewellery, particularly from China and India.

"Gold for more than 1000 years has been considered a safe haven in uncertain times," he says. "It can be easily converted into anything and is a hedge against inflation."

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM: Oil at $US100 a barrel is a distinct possibility and Woodside is Australia's biggest oil and gas producer, Mr Smith says. It has big reserves to meet growing export orders.

AED OIL: Mr Smith says AED will lift production from 15,000 barrels a day to 28,000 barrels in the next 12 months. The company is partially cushioned against oil price falls as 1.2 million barrels are hedged at $US72 for the next two years.

clearasmud
16-07-2006, 03:38 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

Updated chart please!

p.s. who said averaging down was a dumb idea [:p]


Great idea!

Any progress on OTI? I still got some too

richierich
19-07-2006, 05:21 PM
Got some AED today at 1.51

Slowly building a small aussie portfolio for the long term...

skinny
01-08-2006, 12:09 PM
Breakout!

For details see...

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AED&E=ASX&N=258310

Bel
01-08-2006, 01:13 PM
Up 15% today :)

laurie
01-08-2006, 03:33 PM
Up 193% since May 05 when I jumped on :D

cheers laurie

leonchai
01-08-2006, 06:27 PM
From the July Quarterly,

" The preliminary work on reanalysis of the existing structures, taking into account the Company’s two well development programme, suggests that all categories of EUR in the Puffin-7 and Pufin-5 field will significantly increase with the P90 exceeding the Company’s previous P10 reserves. "

I guess that's the reason why!

laurie
01-08-2006, 08:13 PM
And expect more upgrades ;)

cheers laurie

mark100
01-08-2006, 09:12 PM
The news on potential reserve increase was very good and obviously better than expected. They now expect P90 reserves for Puffin-7 and Puffin-5 to exceed the previous P10 reserve.

They also say capital budgets are on track and they are still aiming for initial production in Q1 2007.

As a negative, they used A$56m cash this quarter and have A$14m cash remaining with a further A$23m finance available. So they have A$37m left to get that oil flowing. They say capital budgets are on track although they didn't sound as confident on this point.

I also have my doubts about production commencing in Q1 2007 which they also didn't seem as confident on. These things always take longer than they say and there have already been substantial delays. I reckon it may be almost a year before they reach production.

So the potential positives for AED are:
A very significant reserve upgrade in the short term.
Further confirmation that budgets are on track
Further confirmation that production is on track for Q1 2007
Massive cash flow per share when the oil starts to flow

Potential negatives:
They may need to raise more cash or take on further debt. I only say this because they churned through a lot of cash this quarter. I might be wrong, maybe all the capital intensive work is done.
Potential Delays in getting production started

Mark

ASXIOU
01-08-2006, 09:25 PM
Hey guys,

About time this puppy got moving. Good timing too as I spent my last AED allocated dollar yesterday :) Quarterly report was a ripper by anyones standards. I particularly like the indication of a new drilling target. In reality I would be expecting production to probably start around this time next year. It's inevitable that there will be delays but who cares, the oil isn't going anywhere.

disc: Hold AED, DYOR

skinny
01-08-2006, 10:44 PM
Fantastic run today, sold the portion I bought at around 1.20 averaging down on the weakness 6 weeks ago, but still my largest holding on the ASX.

For those worried about possible project slippage one way to hedge the risk is to go long on the offshore drillers -- the whole sector was oversold in May, is starting to recover now, and has very solid fundamentals for at least the next couple of years given global capacity constraints (in short, it takes fcuk of a long time to build a new rig!)

Disc: Hold CFD'S in NYSE listed NE and DO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=NE
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DO

laurie
02-08-2006, 12:47 AM
quote:Originally posted by mark100



Potential negatives:
They may need to raise more cash or take on further debt. I only say this because they churned through a lot of cash this quarter. I might be wrong, maybe all the capital intensive work is done.
Potential Delays in getting production started

Mark


Add to that the area they are in is prone to cyclones so further delays may happen especially between October ----&gt; May the wet season

cheers laurie

mark100
02-08-2006, 01:03 AM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU

Hey guys,

About time this puppy got moving. Good timing too as I spent my last AED allocated dollar yesterday Quarterly report was a ripper by anyones standards. I particularly like the indication of a new drilling target. In reality I would be expecting production to probably start around this time next year. It's inevitable that there will be delays but who cares, the oil isn't going anywhere.



I care if there are delays and the market will to. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future unless the price of oil increases at a rate in excess of the discount rate.

Not that I expect any significant delays, but nevertheless it is a risk in the current O&G market.

cheers

skinny
02-08-2006, 12:08 PM
quote:Originally posted by mark100


I care if there are delays and the market will to. A dollar today is worth more than a dollar in the future unless the price of oil increases at a rate in excess of the discount rate.

Not that I expect any significant delays, but nevertheless it is a risk in the current O&G market.

cheers



Other factor which will effect the DCF equation is of course the reserves and reserve life, can't wait to plug the upgrade, when it comes out, into my spreadsheet [:p]

In between where the market takes the SP is a crapshoot IMO :D

laurie
02-08-2006, 03:53 PM
Hit a high of $1.92 on release of Investor Presentation they must have liked what they read [:p]

cheers laurie

skinny
03-08-2006, 09:24 PM
Well done AA, personally holding on as I have been burnt in the past selling out of commodity stocks on fire much too early - most egregiously taking a 'measly' 40% profit on Paladin selling at 65C!! The volumes going through today was well over 1m so still plenty of interest at current and higher prices.

And as I still hold I'll continue my not so subtle ramp. I value AED at $2.60 based on what we know currently about P90 reserves and the expected maximal production rates in '08 of 35,000BOPD. Should it be the case that the 'significant' prospects for further upgrades tantalizing us in the investor presentation released yesterday are sufficient to get *just* one more years life out of the fields at 2008 production rates then my calculations can support an intrinsic value more like $4.80. Just like the current price of Paladin [:p]

Bel
07-08-2006, 12:43 PM
Up to 2.07 today. AED is looking good. Now also my biggest holding.

richierich
07-08-2006, 01:27 PM
yes, it is looking very good! i bought a little at $1.51 few weeks ago... should have bought more!!!

Dazza
07-08-2006, 04:32 PM
i sold at 1.50 arggggggggh

feel my pain &gt;&lt;

money went into CQTO/RNG/SBM

instead.....

but my worst selling decision ever.

some good sells i have had:

FTX
BTA
AED
TEL

just to name a few.........

i can spot stocks going down... but finding ones going up.......... mmm

ASXIOU
07-08-2006, 07:26 PM
Big-buying started at the opening bell and was quite fierce all day. A very good sign. Surprised to see so many of you sell. AED is surely a long-term hold if i have ever seen one. Mine are all still firmly tucked away waiting for the divvy cheques. :)

Disc: Hold, DYOR

Bel
08-08-2006, 07:16 AM
We're Kiwis, the thought of double taxation divies doesn't enthrall us. But the thought of tax free capital gains can make us chew at the bit!
Took me a while to learn to ignore the dips in SP and not panic sell but damn its even harder not to greed sell on the hikes.
Must... stick.... to ..... the.... plan.

ps: I'm holding for at least 6 more months, realistically more likely to be 18 months baring tragic unforseen events.

skinny
08-08-2006, 01:45 PM
Heh, think you should consider changing the title of the thread ASXIOU from "Ridiculously Undervalued?" to "How long will the bargain last?" At any rate thanks for bringing it to attention, now a 6 figure cap gain (on paper) with this mornings session, gratifying if nothing else given was first significant buy this year. Reminds me why I still troll through the dross on sharetrader!

Halebop
09-08-2006, 08:07 PM
Ditto Skinny. A good spot this one. Six figures?! You bought more than me.

Disc: Mostly in cash, AED is currently my only holding.

skinny
09-08-2006, 10:12 PM
Well I did draw down the mortgage to partly finance the purchase - a bit stomach churning when it got sold off to near a $1 but working out well now. I hope the cash you are holding HB is, ah hem, appropriately diversified given the large maturites over the next year of offshore issued AUD and NZD denominated bonds.

Halebop
09-08-2006, 11:19 PM
...Er, is having the money with 3 different Australian institutions diversified? What do ya reckon instead of $A? $US? ...I've always preferred my money close to home but have no "rational" reason. Probably just want to be within Baseball Bat reach of the borrower...

mark100
30-08-2006, 10:58 AM
Speculation in today's Sydney Morning Herald that AZA is taking a look at AED.

Bel
30-08-2006, 12:08 PM
Im up nearly 80% in a few short weeks. Been a great run has ol AED..

ASXIOU
30-08-2006, 12:19 PM
This one just doesn't want to stop. [:p]:)

limegreen
05-09-2006, 01:38 PM
"Puffin oil field grows dramatically"
Currently up 50cents!

BUGGER!! I almost bought in on the recovery from the last dip. [B)][B)][B)]

skinny
05-09-2006, 01:56 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

Well done AA, personally holding on as I have been burnt in the past selling out of commodity stocks on fire much too early - most egregiously taking a 'measly' 40% profit on Paladin selling at 65C!! The volumes going through today was well over 1m so still plenty of interest at current and higher prices.


Heh, yes I took my own advice from 3rd August :D

ASXIOU
05-09-2006, 02:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by limegreen



"Puffin oil field grows dramatically"
Currently up 50cents!

BUGGER!! I almost bought in on the recovery from the last dip. [B)][B)][B)]


More money is lost from indecision than from the wrong decision.

What an excellent day. OIP increasing from 13m to 90m barrels [:p] I would say we could expect say 30-40m barrels recoverable out of that. This could be turning into a very serious operation.

Disc: Hold AED, DYOR

Bel
05-09-2006, 02:32 PM
WOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Yes i'm happy :)

mark100
05-09-2006, 02:46 PM
What a great annoucement. I'm no expert but I'm guessing around 30% could be recoverable

skinny
05-09-2006, 03:03 PM
quote:Originally posted by mark100

What a great annoucement. I'm no expert but I'm guessing around 30% could be recoverable


A modest recovery rate, but if this is the case AED remains ridiculously undervalued according to my calculations....

tommy
05-09-2006, 03:28 PM
damn, kicking myself for selling out too early:(

But I'm back in, well done to those you held[8D] Still undervalued yes, how long will it take to hit $4?

mark100
05-09-2006, 03:48 PM
My quickly revised calcs give a DCF value of around A$4.75 / fully diluted share.

I've assumed:
US$65 oil price
US$20 production cost
2.5% royalty
27m barrels recoverable
25,000 bopd production
Production not starting until 2008
12.5% Discount rate

I've probably been over-conservative on some of those numbers

Mark

Edit - I should note that the DCF valuation is highly leveraged to an increase in the recoverability ratio. If they could recover up to 40% then my DCF value is over $6

tommy
05-09-2006, 03:51 PM
http://www.easybourse.com/Website/dynamic/News.php?NewsID=50567&lang=fra&NewsRubrique=2

AED Oil Shares Soar On Timor Sea Reserves Boost
Monday September 4th, 2006 / 5h17


MELBOURNE -(Dow Jones)- Australian oil explorer AED Oil Ltd. (AED.AU) Tuesday said that appraisal work has boosted the resource estimate at its Puffin oil field by seven times.

AED said based on recent drilling results and seismic survey information the estimate of oil in place at Puffin North East in the Timor Sea has soared to 90 million barrels from 13 million barrels.
The Melbourne-based company is 100% owner of the field and plans to start production early in 2007 with initial flow rates of 18,000 barrels a day.

"More work needs to be done to convert the new understanding of the Puffin field into proved reserves, but we are very confident that evaluation work on the drilling, engineering and seismic data will allow us to quickly upgrade the Puffin field into a significant oil producing province," chairman David Dix said.

AED shares are 22% higher at A$3.00 in early afternoon trade.

-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4323; alex.wilson@dowjones.com -Edited by Ian Pemberton

Bel
05-09-2006, 08:17 PM
Surely you meant for us all? At this point i would like to give another big thnaks to ASXIOU for sharing this gem with us all. I'm sticking my neck out and prediciting another big high tomorrow (+50-60c?) before probably dropping back somewhat as people take there profits and run.

People other than me that is.

cloggs
06-09-2006, 07:58 AM
Thanks ASXIOU.

tommy
06-09-2006, 05:59 PM
AED holding above $3 still, how low will it go for consolidation? Want to pick some up on the cheap...

Don't tell me it's not gonna drop any further because of the much awaited drilling results at other parts of Puffin! Someone sell me some AED!!

leonchai
06-09-2006, 07:50 PM
Yeah thanks ASXIOU!!

Added to my position on today's dip...700% increase in OIP estimates, yet sp only up 30%...something's not adding up!

I understand that only a fraction of the OIP is recoverable, but a 700% upgrade in OIP would represent a 700% upgrade in reserves, am I not correct? Also this is only for the puffin NE field, not including the other fields. Guess we'll have to wait for the revised reserve figures at the end of Oct to find out!

Any thoughts from seasoned oil/resource investors?

Bel
06-09-2006, 08:41 PM
I see a lot of people taking there profits. I suspect more of the same tomorrow, i.e. a big rise in sp early only with a corresponding drop in the afternoon. (has been doing this sort of behaviour for a week or more just not this erratic).

But every person that invests at 3.50 is a person who wont be taking any profit for a while :D I personnally feel the temptation to sell and take the gains on offer but know i will regret it big time in the coming months if i were to do so.

bermuda
07-09-2006, 12:57 PM
Well done all you AED enthusiasts.Good on you for recognising its potential.It is what we all dream of.So go and celebrate with a classy champagne.You deserve it.

I bought some ARROW and now have plenty of BOW which I hope will be a 10 bagger.Never had one of those before.Anyway make sure you all celebrate AED's success.

mark100
07-09-2006, 01:10 PM
Stockanalysis has speculated that 35-40m barrels could be recoverable

skinny
07-09-2006, 02:20 PM
At 35m barrels my DCF is around $5.20

Assumptions:

US$65 oil price in '07, declining by $5 each year to $45 in 2010 to roughly coincide with estimates of LRMC's in the oil sand and deep offshore feilds.

US$25 production cost.

15,000 bopd production in '07, 30,000 in '08-'10, 15,000 again in '11

12.5% Discount rate.

Note many will see this as overly conservative but I am not at all convinced by the peak-oil case. On the other hand AED could increase extraction capacity earlier than assumed rather than stick with 30,0000 bopd.

ff1champ
07-09-2006, 04:31 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny

At 35m barrels my DCF is around $5.20

Assumptions:

US$65 oil price in '07, declining by $5 each year to $45 in 2010 to roughly coincide with estimates of LRMC's in the oil sand and deep offshore feilds.

US$25 production cost.

15,000 bopd production in '07, 30,000 in '08-'10, 15,000 again in '11

12.5% Discount rate.

Note many will see this as overly conservative but I am not at all convinced by the peak-oil case. On the other hand AED could increase extraction capacity earlier than assumed rather than stick with 30,0000 bopd.



After having a look at your assumptions, i am pretty sure you are not including the cost of the PRRT in your DCF.

Halebop
07-09-2006, 04:44 PM
Hey Skinny,

I go for a higher discount rate because they are still essentially a one trick pony. Other than that the rest of the assumptions are as good as any I think. Got a lower value on them because of my discount so for me $5 (short term at least) isn't probable. Will feel a little robbed if they don't make an attempt at $4.00 in the short term.

Certainly happy with results to date and with the benefit of hindsight can already regret not putting more into AED!

mark100
07-09-2006, 05:19 PM
Looks like the heroes became winners. Maybe discussions on 'cheapness,..,permutations of earnings' etc can be useful tools of investment after all.

richierich
07-09-2006, 06:36 PM
this just looks like it is never going to stop! also regret not putting more... lol

ASXIOU
07-09-2006, 08:00 PM
Hi Guys,

Hope we are all enjoying the AED express... Personally bought quite a large amount between 1.20-1.60 with some decent gearing so am looking forward to retirement at 23.... not quite, besides don't think i'll be able to bring myself to sell any of them for a while. If we have 30-40m+ barrels recoverable and the **** doesn't fall out of the oil price with the tested flow rates we can be expecting many happy years ahead with a steady stream of dividends to accompany the appreciating sp. Looong-term hold for sure :)

Disc: Hold AED, please do your own research before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold stocks

skinny
07-09-2006, 09:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by ff1champ


After having a look at your assumptions, i am pretty sure you are not including the cost of the PRRT in your DCF.


Good point - If I apply a 3% royalty on production as per the prospectus (section 3.3) and the PRRT of 40% on profits the DCF reduces to $4.60 odd. But I have made now allowance for depreciation and the $32m of costs past Permit holders have bourne, which may be able to be claimed against future receipts (section 3.5. of the prospectus).

Anyways, a number still comfortably north of current prices!

ff1champ
07-09-2006, 11:16 PM
quote:Originally posted by skinny


quote:Originally posted by ff1champ


After having a look at your assumptions, i am pretty sure you are not including the cost of the PRRT in your DCF.


Good point - If I apply a 3% royalty on production as per the prospectus (section 3.3) and the PRRT of 40% on profits the DCF reduces to $4.60 odd. But I have made now allowance for depreciation and the $32m of costs past Permit holders have bourne, which may be able to be claimed against future receipts (section 3.5. of the prospectus).

Anyways, a number still comfortably north of current prices!



I have revised this post a number of times; this stuff can get rather confusing...

IF, you have kept all other assumptions unchanged, then the PRRT (Petroleum Resource Rent Tax) will reduce the cash flows from the project by close to 35%. The effective PRRT rate will be lower in the first year -- 25-30% -- when the majority of past expenditures are offset against inflows. The effective rate in following years is likely to range between 35-40%. So, i would imagine your earlier DCF valuation would have to be revised downwards by atleast 30-35% giving a revised NPV for the project in the range of $3.30 - 3.70 using your assumptions (which i think are very conservative overall).


It is important to note that you are calculating a project NPV, and not a company DCF valuation. If AED were to continue operations (as they have stated they will do), with even just moderate exploration success (which is reasonable to assume), the DCF valuation of the company will be significantly higher than the NPV of the Puffin project.

ASXIOU
08-09-2006, 11:51 AM
Up another lazy 10% so far today with some very serious buying going on. AWn order for 500000 popped up at $3.50 [8D]

richierich
08-09-2006, 12:11 PM
wouldn't be surprised if it went over $4 next week...

tommy
08-09-2006, 03:25 PM
When da hell is AED gonna take a breather[:0]

I wanted to pick up more on a price dip... will we never see low $3 again? Damn:(

A big congrats to those who never exited... kicking myself for exiting too early and reentering too late[:o)]

cloggs
11-09-2006, 11:48 AM
Will we see $4 today????

Halebop
11-09-2006, 05:05 PM
I decided to sell today. Up almost exactly 150% in 3 Months. Good luck to holders. This still might have some legs. Just preferring the notion of cash right now.

Bel
12-09-2006, 10:43 AM
Halebop, did you sell up because you think that AED has no more room left to grow or were you playing it safe against a swing in the market or did you sell because you had no choice/unrelated matters?

Sorry for prying but I'm infinitely curious :)

Halebop
12-09-2006, 10:55 AM
Hi Bel,

I'm not bullish on the sharemarket and AED was my only holding (though mostly thanks to it my results are now in the low 20s% so far this financial year). AED certainly has room to grow but is close to my guesstimate of DCF without factoring further greenfields discoveries.

I have no strong view on the short to medium term trend for oil or commodoties. So a Macro oil play via AED has no great pull for me.

I've got my eye on another share but I'm not prepared to spend more than 20, maybe 30% of my net worth right now. My gut feeling is that "dry powder" will be the smartest investment to make for a while yet. If I'm wrong can jump back on the sharemarket when the trend confirms so the extra 10% in "lost" profits is a suckers trade when compared to what I might lose in capital or gain by being liquid and buying cheaply.

Just my opinion for what its worth.

Halebop
12-09-2006, 12:45 PM
...Wasn't quite expecting to be this right this quickly. The whole market is sailing very close to the trendline...

skinny
12-09-2006, 01:01 PM
Nice timing HB!
Still holding on, but watching the POO nervously...

Bel
12-09-2006, 01:30 PM
Brilliant timing by halebop! Though i wasn't ready to sell at this time anyway. Stick to the plan Bel! :)

leonchai
26-10-2006, 03:27 PM
down to 3.40 despite oil up US$2...

New reserve estimates due end of this month.
Is this a sign of bad news to come or just jittery holders??

I note that in the latest annual report their target initial production has increased from 20,000bpd to 30,000bpd by drilling an additional well. This gotta be good right?


DISC- Hold AED

Bel
27-10-2006, 02:31 PM
I sold 1/3 of my holdings to fund ADI but plan on holding the rest for a while to come yet. I see its back up to $3.60 within a day. Can't keep a good stock down.

skinny
30-10-2006, 12:34 PM
Sold a few too but still my largest holding on the ASX.
I think the share price remaining firm despite the big sell off in oil is quite positive regarding expectations of reserves and production schedules.

Have a stop loss in place in case they are dashed but quietly confident :)

leonchai
22-11-2006, 08:31 PM
what do you guys think about the new reserve statement?

50-69% recoverability. 40 million reserve for puffin NE 1 alone, and probably 70 million reserve if you include the rest of the NE fields.

This is excluding upside from puffin SW and woodlea prospect...

Sounds like an excellent report to me!

laurie
23-11-2006, 01:02 AM
yeh but production has been put back again to June 07 !!!

cheers laurie

Bel
23-11-2006, 09:00 AM
What was that quote i took from someone on these forums?

"Investing is the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient"

Something like that. My plan was to always hold AED for a min of of 12-18 months anyway since June this year.

laurie
23-11-2006, 08:02 PM
Mate I've been on since .60cents

cheers laurie;)

Bel
24-11-2006, 11:36 AM
Nice definition of patience :)

Investors not traders yet its remarkable how many people get the two mixed up.

mark100
07-12-2006, 12:33 PM
$4 broken today.

The updated reserves annoucement is due soon although I've also heard the increased interest is due to comparisons with Coogee Resources, another oil player in the Timor Sea. Coogee lists tomorrow

mark100
07-12-2006, 08:00 PM
Well Coogee doesn't list tomorrow. Float was pulled as institutions didn't want to pay up in the bookbuild

laurie
07-12-2006, 08:44 PM
Whats the bet insiders knew that and took a stake in AED [?]CGR announced at 5:30pm would that not piss you off if you got on I was amazed at the IPO price of 1.90!!and still it was overscribed

cheers laurie

laurie
07-12-2006, 10:37 PM
Speeding ticket issued this evening

cheers laurie

laurie
12-12-2006, 01:53 PM
High of $4.27 something has ignited a flame under the sp :D

cheers laurie

ASXIOU
27-12-2006, 09:22 PM
So close to $5, hitting $4.98 today [:p]. Anyone else still holding?? One of my biggest movers through 2006 and still firmly tucked away. Think we can now confirm that at the prices AED was trading at back when the thread was started ($1-$1.50) it was most definitely ridiculously undervalued. :)

anne2
28-12-2006, 12:05 AM
ASXIOU said: Think we can now confirm that at the prices AED was trading at back when the thread was started ($1-$1.50) it was most definitely ridiculously undervalued.

AED was $1 at the start of May and hit near enough to $5 today.

NWE is AED's partner - except that NWE just has to sit back and cash royalty cheques.

NWE was 10c at the start of May and closed at 14c today. NWE is so cheap and so neglected it is driving me insane!

Some deluded or knowledgeable person was relentlessly dumping 14c parcels of 200,000 shares at a time all day and probably on Friday and Thursday as well.

I wonder who he is? I sure would like to know his logic. Anyone have a clue why he would be so keen to sell a huge parcel?

Cheers Anne

yogi-in-oz
28-12-2006, 01:13 AM
:)

Hi Anne,

..... apparently an investor from Qld was bailing out,
but that has been offset by the directors, continuuing
to add to their NWE holdings ..... always a positive
sign for any junior oiler ... :)

happy days

yogi

P.S. ... is this, hotcongo???

:)

Crypto Crude
28-12-2006, 02:05 AM
ASXIOU...yes the run of late has been relentless... A happy holder here since June...
currently an undervalued stock...yes... not to be sold under $10... appreciation will unfold over the next year..
only positive announcements follow this company...
im looking for another 100% minimum on current SP, in 2007... i've Picked for 2007 asx comp..
we have come a long way since P50 of 11million barrels in a short period of time

The Puffin south west reserves are still beyond us but ... in the NE we have three oil pools
NE1 OIIP 67million barrels- Puffin 5, puffin 7..... (puffin 7, 40 miilion)
NE2 OIIP 24million barrels- Puffin 3
NE3 OIIP 17million barrels- puffin 1... 17m, is the Previous permit holders estimate...
AED's response, " Conservative figures"...

On the 22/11/06 AED released a presentation to the market, in it it says
for the SW LK1a and Uk1a, "their will be a reserve timetable update in one month"
and NE2 puffin 3 "their will be a reserve timetable update in one month"....
the market is currently waiting on these announcements, investor expectations are high... (large recent sp appreciation)

In October/November 2007 there will be a 3 well drilling program, one well will be drilled in the NE, (where production is set to begin "at beginning of June")
and one other well in the SW where the Puffin 9 oil discovery was made...
The other well is an uncertainty at the moment
the three well drilling program will be funded from cashflow from large production revenue...

during the year when we got upgraded reserves to 90Million OIIP, I was hoping for a recovery factor of 30-35% or so... infact oil recovery factors will range from 50-69% (so they say)...
and reserves are much more than 90million now also... 90million is less than NE puffin

AC/P22 is AED's permit area in the Timor Sea, (100% stake)... originally there were 11 graticular blocks... 3 blocks were awarded production licence (AC/L6) and were granted on 12 April 06... these three blocks make up the puffin fields (SW, NE)... so now there are 8 graticular blocks left in AC/P22...
the thought of another field similar to Puffin within the Permit boundaries gives me the shakes...
Coogee Resources operates two FPSO's in the Timor Sea at Jabiru and Challis...
AED will operate one FPSO in Puffin NE.... its only a matter of time before they operate another in SW Puffin (08?)...... Puffin 9 in the SW should produce 08..., and the SW drill in Oct/Nov will determine if the FPSO initially connects the two up... or just produces from one well...
within Puffin there are numerous exploration leads such as Puffin-3 updip (NE), Woodlea SW, Pryde NE, Puffin south west regional
I am in no doubt that AED will extensively drill in these other 8 graticular blocks too...
with exploration leads such as Frog - OIIP 73mmb, Tadpole - OIIP 18mmb, Prichard - OIIP 7mmb (LK1a sands also), predator - OIIP 16mmb

at beginning of June 07 oil will flow at 30,000 barrels per day from puffin 8, 7...
puffin 8 is considered a production well and to be drilled in Feb 07
AUS/US exchange rate say approximately .77
60/.77= $80Aus per barrel
$80*30000= $2.4m in daily revenue... they will be lighting fat cigars with large denominated notes up in the boardroom... lobster and fish sticks at AGM...
after the 3 drilling program, the drilled well in the NE area, will be tied up to FPSO... at beginning of 2008 me feels... say 45,000 per day!

Late first production sucks... because of Late puffin 8 drill... The Drilling rig, the Stena Clyde has been held up with its current operations... the Stena C drilled Puffin 7,9 and will drill Puffin 8
There are also 40million unlisted employee options, at current SP this adds
$200million to market value of AED :(
total Market cap is currently $743million.... which takes into account the 40million options which will all be converted to shares next year..

I am not emotionally attached to this stock... I am prepared to sell but wont... asxiou, we have been well rewarded for the last 6 months.... there was

Crypto Crude
28-12-2006, 02:41 AM
hey anne,
NWE has estimated that the Potential Cash Flow from its 1.25% royality of Puffin, to currently stands at A$33,000,000, based on the 22/11 AED presentation
An oil price of US$50 per barrel and the P50 case reserve were selected to arrive at the estimated potential cash flow of A$33million.

therefore 33,000,000 / .0125 = $2.64 billion net to AED...

we are currently waiting on reserve updates for SW puffin and NE2... so the figure of 33mill will no doubt increase over the coming months...
maybe NWE might be a better route to take than the AED express... as asxiou would put it...

anne2
28-12-2006, 08:00 PM
AED hit the $5 mark and held it at close, while NWE had yet another day of the pesky seller dropping 200,000 share parcels all day long.

I suppose that's just 50 parcels if he started with 10 million shares - can't last forever.

yes, yogi, I am hotcongo from hot copper!

Cheers Anne

Crypto Crude
04-01-2007, 04:24 PM
overnight the price of oil fell over 4.5%... now below $59...
and AED responded correctly on opening today.. down a few % in early trading...
then we got this public announcement and now the share price is up 16cents... back up to $4.8... a real timely announcement that was in my opinion definately issued to offset a falling SP...

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070104/pdf/310d7jdpvwb1mx.pdf (mailto:)

Crypto Crude
21-01-2007, 08:52 PM
This coming week AED is set to release its revised reserve updates on the puffin fields, that we have been eagerly waiting for...

Puffin 8 Production well is now set to be drilled in March, and not Feb..... It is still not expected to delay first oil production in June....
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
21-01-2007, 09:40 PM
Hello again Shrewd

I didn't realise the announcement would be this week:)....is this recent advice from the company [?]

Crypto Crude
21-01-2007, 11:04 PM
HC... animal run you have had on BMN of late
"is this recent advice from the company"..... yes....
should be a big week for us....
I'm looking at sub $5....
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
21-01-2007, 11:36 PM
Sold BMN a couple of weeks ago. Nice trade all the same. [^]

I'm actually hoping for a bit more than $5 for AED short term, as the news should be very good. However, I'm a bit concerned that the recent drop in the P.O.O. might put a dampener on things somewhat. All the same, its amazing how well AED has held up in the last few weeks, compared to the likes of ARQ, BPT etc.

Crypto Crude
22-01-2007, 01:48 PM
HC.... I reckon NWE is worth alook....
Just picked up some NWE at 16.5cents....
NWE is exposed through AED's Puffin oil fields with the 1.25% royalty they will collect on production revenues.... NPV of Puffin royalty is worth more that NWE.... and a major new deal with an international oiler announcement expected this week which will give NWE a major boost to its cash reserves....Puffin reserves due this week....
its worth a read of NWE on sharescene...
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
25-01-2007, 10:42 PM
Shrewd

Patiently, I waited and waited, but no announcement :(

Also keeping an eye on NWE, but haven't taken the plunge at this stage.

Crypto Crude
26-01-2007, 02:33 PM
hc...as I was too...
a few weeks now is not going to make any difference at the end of the year..
I had alook at some historical NWE share price data... and last year after the 'dramatic reserve increase announcement of puffin' (5-9-06)... NWE's share price was up 50% in 3 days...
contiue to wait my friend, and you shall be rewarded...
there is reserves update (which was due a month ago)...puffin 8 drill in early march, first production in june, 3 well drilling program oct-nov, further reserves updates this year?...
this will all bring further exposure to our undervalued asset which will be good....

I have read that Wilsons have $8.10 valuation on AED on present reserves of 40mbo....
Intersuisse summer bourse report has AED at a buy
SC mackdad report has AED at a buy...
I don't think you can ever say in share investment that it is a guaranteed return...
It sure feels like it is for me....
.^sc

Crypto Crude
01-02-2007, 10:40 AM
www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070201/pdf/310rqtr6gj3yam.pdf (mailto:)

Activities report for the quarter out this morning...
The report says, " NE2 accumulation and commentary on the NE3 structure will be announced by mid Feb, Reserves and commentray relating to puffin south west region will be released before the end of Feb"...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
09-02-2007, 10:54 PM
ASX Announcement
Rig Mobilisation for Puffin-8 Development Well
AED Oil Limited (“AED”) wishes to announce that the handover of the Stena Clyde
drilling rig to AED occurred late last night, Thursday 8 February 2007. The rig is currently
on its way from Northern Territory waters to the Puffin oilfield in production licence
AC/L6, with an estimated date of arrival of 14/15 February 2007. It is expected that
Puffin-8 will be spudding on 16/17 February 2007.
Puffin-8 is the second development well targeting the main Puffin North East structure
(NE1). The subsea location of the well is 310m south of Puffin-7. The well is again
planned as a horizontal well, reaching the reservoir (top LK1a sand) at approximately
2045m RT. The horizontal section would be a minimum of approximately 250m. AED
may elect to extend the well by approximately 400 m in the event that reservoir conditions
vary from current understanding and to gather valuable information. Furthermore, as a
secondary target, consideration is being given to extend the horizontal section
approximately by an additional 500m and to explore the neighbouring NE3 structure. The
well is expected to reach a minimum measured depth of at least 2920m RT, with a
maximum of around 3800m RT. After completing the well, a short flow test will follow to
ensure well integrity. The total time for drilling and completion of the well is estimated to
be 42 days, assuming no downtime for weather or other reasons, with an estimated
completion date of 29 March.
Operations will then shift to the next project phase, involving subsea installation of
flowlines, umbilicals and the subsea manifold in preparation for the production of first oil.
This next project phase is due to commence in the first half of April. On the assumption of
continued good progress, the first oil date remains as June 2007.
Trevor Slater
Company Secretary

announcement goes against what was said in activities report where Puffin 8 drill was expected to early March....
Puffin 8 upside.... reserves upside....
how big will the next two months be....
big
.....^this big
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
09-02-2007, 11:31 PM
AA,
yeah, holder here since $1.34 topped up at $3.7... average price approx $2.05

"surely theres limited down side medium term?"....
AED is undervalued as it is....
The way I see it is that there is no real downside... all downside is protected by first oil at 30,000 per day in June... AED can really only go sideways, or up...
expect positive news with the reserves upgrades this month....

"What are the probabilities of continued success after success in such a investment"...
I once went to a Foreign exchange seminar... and they said if you follow the trend, 70% of the time you will be right....
AED will be a superstar, I feel more confident about this one than any other pick I have ever made...
Im currently also holding 60k shares of NWE as a play with the Puffin royalty...
Im looking at $10-$15 per AED share year end....
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
10-02-2007, 12:09 AM
Holding AED as well.

My only gripe is their pathetic website....looks like it was cobbled together by a 2 yr old! :(

Crypto Crude
10-02-2007, 01:14 AM
hey HC....
we will just have to make do with the website in the short term...
AED is not a cash rich company.... (not yet, but soon to be)
cash at bank stands at 5.3million
loan facility of 70,170,000 of which 47,316,000 has been used.... so there is 22.8 million left on the facility....
estimated cashflow expenditure expected for the next quarter stands at 40.9million....
SO AED needs to renegotiate bank finance to get us through to first oil...
I don't think that a capital raising is coming, but think AED will go back to the banks....
daily revenues of 2.4million starting in June are set to blow this stock into upper echalon oil producing stocks...
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
10-02-2007, 02:04 AM
How's it going Shrewd.

I think I'm what the pointy heads call a 'visual' person, so ugly corporate branding, logos, websites etc really grate with me.

Having said that, you point about AED not being cash rich (yet) is valid, and truth be told, it's good to see that their money is 'going into the drill bit' so to speak, and not on the less important things, like a new website. In other words, their priorities appear to be right.

Do you plan to ride AED all the way, or take some profits on the reserves update we are expecting?

Crypto Crude
10-02-2007, 03:49 AM
quote:
Huang Chung Posted - 10/02/2007 : 03:04:09 AM
Do you plan to ride AED all the way, or take some profits on the reserves update we are expecting?

im pretty well HC....
not taking any profits here...I plan to wait until after the three well drilling program in October, November....shortly after that, if not before, there should be news about a second FPSO, hoping first production from second FPSO will produce in SW puffin early to mid 2008.... other than that the superlarge growth will be gone by then, and I will pull out to fund my next pick... around $15-20 is my target...
Yes, when Companies hold out on the visuals (as you say) it is a sure sign that they are cutting costs.... and when companies cut costs, usually the first place they start is with the annual reports... the colour, glossy,thickness of paper, photos.... it all adds up... I once red a book that talked in part about the link between cost cutting on visuals and the future downfall of the company... I saw it happen to CUE energy, it had a stinker of a prospectous, and annual report... guess what happened to the shareprice!!!...

you mention corporate brandings.... I love aeds corporate Brand (the puffin bird)....
I love the way the Puffin developed insequence...first there was just a bird, and as the company progressed then the bird started to lift, or spread its wings....
as the company progressed into a top spec oiler, then the Puffin bird started to fly.... (after dramatic reserves increase)...
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
10-02-2007, 09:51 AM
Yeah, the ghostly little Puffin is a nice touch. Can't say I ever noticed the progression to flight though....will have to look at some of their reports and check this out.

Crypto Crude
13-02-2007, 03:00 PM
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/3aa7d95a736ce0fc908bf6a9a737932e/ASX-AED-270283.pdf (mailto:)

NE2- OIIP 11-30million ....
previously it was NE2 OIIP 24mill....
waiting for SW Puffin as it is a much larger area and has more upside....
Puffin 8 drill will test NE3....
the report that I posted on NWE, (Carmichael research has AED undervalued, worth a read)
still looking good....
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
07-03-2007, 12:28 PM
in puffin 8 drilling report yesterday AED also said SW figures WOULD BE released before the end of this week....
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
08-03-2007, 02:05 PM
[url="http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/16d6fa31a1b44e6ff5f53dd16e873546/ASX-AED-272068.pdf"]

check out this link on updated reserves.... humm......
not as big as I thought it was, top range figures look promising....
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
08-03-2007, 08:43 PM
Decided to sell my AED shares today.

The 38mmbl low side figure threw me a bit, but as you said Shrewed, the up side figure looks good. But I don't want to wait another 6 months to see if the UK1a reservoir sands found in Puffin 2 and 9 are one large accumulation. I was under the impression that all of that would be settled through the drilling / interpretation that has just taken place.

Will take my profits and sit on the sidelines for the moment.

Bel
09-03-2007, 09:03 AM
AED will not hit peak untill first delivery of Oil, i cannot understand why any investor would sell prior to that. Whether the reserves are 90mil or 38mill AED is still undervalued for either because it hasn't finished making the transition to a blue chip/safe stock that will see the big boys invest in.

info
09-03-2007, 10:43 AM
Not in this stock but for anyone who maybe interested.

Excerpts From Today's Broker Call
Friday, 9 March 2007

AED - AED OIL LTD
UBS rates AED as Buy 2 - Company has confirmed its Puffin South West (SW1) "in place" resources range from 38 to 97 mmbbls, with a most likely volume of 65 mmbbls.
UBS has analysts have elected not to incorporate the new figures in their model yet. Review of recent interim result leads to some changes to projections: EPS forecast for FY07 went up by 28.8%, but FY08 and FY09 saw reductions by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively.

The report suggests the SW1 project can potentially add $1.75 per share share to the broker's valuation of $5.03.

Target falls to $6.09 from $6.19.

Target price is $6.09 Current Price is $5.05 Difference:$1.04 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AED meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of -3.00 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is -168.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

Taijon
09-03-2007, 11:04 AM
Thanks for this post info. Thinking of buying in to AED on the next dip. What is "Broker Call"? Is it something one can subscribe to?

Crypto Crude
09-03-2007, 04:58 PM
quote:Huang Chung Posted - 08/03/2007 : 9:43:34 PM
Decided to sell my AED shares today.
The 38mmbl low side figure threw me a bit, but as you said Shrewed, the up side figure looks good. But I don't want to wait another 6 months to see if the UK1a reservoir sands found in Puffin 2 and 9 are one large accumulation. I was under the impression that all of that would be settled through the drilling / interpretation that has just taken place.

HC....So to sumarise you are selling because you are concerned that Puffin 2 and puffin 9 are different oil accululations....seems pretty out of it reason for me....
NE will produce in tandem via a subsea manifold to the FPSO... its not such a big deal is it....?
tie in can increase flow rates anyway....
still got 65million barrels mid point SW, with now the real possibility of future 2nd FPSO....

Bel....good post, yes.... its still a spec stock, looks like market will wait for first production too re-rate SW, aswell as re-rate the NE as SW figures previously werent included in reserve estimates....
still on target for $10 minimum SP year end....

Taijon.... yull be lucky.... there really shouldnot be a dip coming up I believe... SP should remain strong through Puffin 8 drill....

Mid puffin 8 drill, extenstion into NE3 accumulation....one month result
Production in two months after that....
followed by 3 well drilling program in October....
Would have to be a mad man to bail out on this juggular....
Premier Oil stock here....
There aint many oilers on the market that offers almost certain returns...

NE is now only half the company (with SW making up the other half)... but yet NE makes up the total value of the AED...
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
09-03-2007, 07:13 PM
Rightly or wrongly, I thought yesterday's announcement would have all the goodies needed to drive the share price to the next level. So far, I see no real evidence of that.

OIIP estimates for Puffin SW of between 38 to 97 million barrels is quite a range. Recovery estimates are also wide, ranging from 40% to 70%. To me, this means that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to what they can ultimately recover, and we won't get an answer anytime soon.

In view of this uncertainty, I was happy to take my money off the table and watch from the sidelines. I also feel that the market may correct sometime in the next few months, and freeing up capital to take advantage of any opportunities also played a part in my decision.

I'm the first to admit that my decision to sell may ultimately prove to be a bad one.

Happy hunting to those still holding.[8D]

HC

Crypto Crude
10-03-2007, 06:26 AM
HC.... this is for you....
and Kindly supplied by WMD.....
An extensive review of geological, geochemical and engineering data by the company's subsurface consultants has found "significant evidence" supporting the presence of a single, extensive oil pool, in the UK1a reservoir, according to AED......

"This common, continuous pool in the UK1a reservoir encompasses both the Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 well areas," the company said...... (in the SW region)

"Supporting evidence includes similar oils, pressure data, sand thickness and petrophysical properties, and stratigraphic data. The oils in the UK1a at Puffin-2 and Puffin-9 appear identical in properties, including oil gravity (46API), with detailed geochemical analyses indicating that the oils are from the same pool."

SC estimates that we could be looking at 100million barrels off total field production...
do the math.... Im away for the weekend lata all....
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
19-03-2007, 11:19 PM
Today I sold all my AED shares....
and I have transferred my holdings across to Northwest energy (NWE)... which has a 1.25% royalty of all revenues from the Puffin field....
I still stand by what I have said, and that I believe that AED will be $10 year end....
and $20 is a possibility within a few years
1.....to get to the $20 will involve NE production 3rd quarter...
2.....SW development into first production in 2008....
3.....and maybe one other strike among AED's other exploration targets such as Frog, Prichard, tadpole, and development there....
3 drilling program in Oct may prove up much of these three points in a shot at $20.....
but its still early days....

AED (puffin field) is the stock I feel very confident about....
but NWE looks to be unfolding into a beauty with much more than the Puffin royalty on the cards....
NWE's market value is 35million approx
NWE has recently valued its puffin royalty revenue to be $65million.... on a conservative basis.... has 7million cash in bank.... divesting American assets which will increase cash reserves by 4million.... has Jingemia producing well which will gain $2million in revenue as it continues to produce....
has AC/P32 which is one permit across from AC/P22 (puffin field)... in this highly productive region.... a well will be set to go here in no time
last week there was an announcement which was the final straw....
Bharat Petroleum and another Indian partner have entered into Joint Venture within NWEs shared permit in the North Sea (UK block 48/1b and 2c).... the two indian partners have agreed to fund 80% of the first $23million US spent on appraisal and development well in 2008....which is amazing for NWE.....
I have been informed from an creditable source that in this permit "a significant gas discovery made in 1984 by Amoco where well encountered 60metre gas column flowed gas at up to 2.7 million cubic feet per day...
Bharat has entered into the AC/P32 block recently aswell, and it is rumored that these world wide JV agreements with NWE to be valued at 15million cash....
The deal has been signed, we are still waiting on the details...
I have seen valuations of NWE in the 40-50 cent range... which is where I put this stock on a forward looking basis........
a stock worth a few dollars in investment.... a stock which at least must surely be worth a watch this year....
peace out AED holders....
Hard to give up such a stock which still has so so much more to offer....
tomorrow looking at weekly drilling report from Puffin8 which should now have encountered oil....
[8D]
.^sc- sc putting money where mouth is and putting 80% of undiversified portfolio on NWE now....

laurie
20-03-2007, 02:29 AM
Brave move SC not one I would be doing then again.... [B)]

cheers laurie

Crypto Crude
20-03-2007, 03:04 PM
allgood laurie....
Believe it or not but NWE has less risk than AED...
if AED goes up then NWE goes up... if Puffin falls over then AED gets liquidated...
and NWE could still be 10-30cents a share...
NWE is far more diversified than AED...
if AED doubles then id expect more than that from Norwest....
got in at 17.5 cents yesterday....
Still waiting on weekly P8 drill anouncement....
should have easily hit oil bearing zones by now...
after Puffin 8 flow tests oil then its all on...
[8D]
.^sc

laurie
20-03-2007, 07:35 PM
SC
Got on NWE today for the very same reason you mentioned and totally agree with you but I think AED will not do a runner so there will be chances to hope onto the train as its a all station train not an express which is the way I like it slow and easy [:p]

cheers laurie

Crypto Crude
21-03-2007, 11:32 PM
you are right Laurie....AED willnot do a runner...
it will do an olympic sprinter.... [:p]
expect the unexpectable... im sure that after Puffin 8 flow testing that things may start to open up for us...
if you want it slow and easy,
im sure you could get some government bonds paying semiannual interest... [:p]
[8D]
.^sc-in a fiesty mood...

laurie
03-04-2007, 08:19 PM
quote:AED Oil Limited
ACN 110 393 292
PO Box 18199
COLLINS STREET EAST VIC 8003
AUSTRALIA
ASX Announcement
3 April 2007
AC/L6
Puffin-8 Strikes Oil
Drilling Progress Report No 6
Puffin-8 has penetrated the first of three mapped highs (refer to figure below), encountering the top of the oil bearing LK1a reservoir at 2022.8 metres True Vertical Depth (TVD), approximately one metre higher than at Puffin-7. The well has subsequently drilled on a nearly horizontal trajectory, 9 degrees from vertical, covering an oil bearing interval of more than 73 metres to date, measured along the well. An initial penetration was made as a “pilot hole”, which was used to better delineate the mapped structure. Accordingly, the present well trajectory will be referred to as Puffin-8 ST1.
Upon completing the drilling of the first high, the planned well track is expected to encounter a small mapped low, similar to Puffin-7, before penetrating the second of three mapped highs, with additional mapped oil bearing formation. The third high targeted is north of the oil bearing Puffin-1 well.
Puffin North East Depth Map, April 2007

BINGO $$$$$$$

cheers laurie

laurie
04-04-2007, 03:15 PM
quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

you are right Laurie....AED willnot do a runner...
it will do an olympic sprinter.... [:p]
expect the unexpectable... im sure that after Puffin 8 flow testing that things may start to open up for us...
if you want it slow and easy,
im sure you could get some government bonds paying semiannual interest... [:p]
[8D]
.^sc-in a fiesty mood...


hmmm still at the starting block the gun has gone off.....

cheers laurie

Crypto Crude
04-04-2007, 04:36 PM
Laurie...
I did say after Puffin 8 flow testing...
the gun has gone off, theres no-one at the start line yet...

Although the market didnt react..I am rather relieved as I have alot riding on your AED producing the goods for my humble little NWE...I am sure you are relieved aswell..
Im really not too concerned that AED didnt blow today as many had expected...
announcement now guarantees tie in... we have a few more targets with Puffin 8 still grinding along... we have flow testing... and then we have a period reaction to flow testing where SP's will remain strong for that period... and then we have a 6-8 week wait of positioning before the oil flows at $2.8million revenues per day initially for the hedged barrels at 72bucks... and then alittle less now that we are in the $65 range... in the first year of production revenues will be greater than the current market value of AED...
100% returns to be made from AED this year.... as I said Olympic sprinter :D
[8D]
.^sc

laurie
04-04-2007, 07:41 PM
Fair enough SC ones assumes the market has factored the oil already in its sp I got on AED for its dividends that I hope will free carry me into retirement [^]

cheers laurie

laurie
04-04-2007, 07:45 PM
Another announcement just out now AED & NWE

cheers laurie

Crypto Crude
06-04-2007, 01:29 PM
courtesy of greensyster....article...
RWE 10:26:00 9138 05/04/2007 (SWAED) REPEAT: Ferret's Stock to Watch: AED OIL LIMITED
RWE News
10:26:020 5/04/2007

PUFFIN FIELD LOOKING BETTER ON LATEST DRILL RESULTS

Sydney - Thursday - April 5: (RWE Aust Business News)
************************************************** ***

OVERVIEW
********

AED Oil Ltd (ASX:AED) has reported more success at the Puffin
field with an oil strike in its Puffin-8 in Bonaparte Basin of Western
Australia.
The latest drilling report, released on Tuesday, said the
company had penetrated the first of three mapped highs, encountering the
top of the oil bearing LK1a reservoir at 2,022.8 metres.
True Vertical Depth (TVD), about one metre higher than at
Puffin-7.
The well has subsequently drilled on a nearly horizontal
trajectory, nine degrees from vertical, covering an oil bearing interval
of more than 73 metres to date, measured along the well.
Analysts are impressed by the move to drill horizontally, which
will access as much oil as possible.
But the key is the NPV of a barrel of oil in this area.
With oil over $US60 barrel, it would have to be at least $US15
(due to high flow rates) which means the market is only giving the
company around the 20-30 million bbls recoverable which looks low on the
P90 figures they are giving.
An initial penetration was made as a 'pilot hole', which was
used to better delineate the structure.
Accordingly, the present well trajectory will be referred to as
Puffin-8 ST1.
Upon completing the drilling of the first high, the planned
well track is expected to encounter a small, similar to Puffin-7,
before penetrating the second of three mapped highs, with additional
oil bearing formation.
The third high targeted is north of the oil-bearing Puffin-1
well.
AED Oil has a 100 per cent participating interest in AC/P22 (the
exploration permit) and AC/L6 (the production licence), which are in
the Ashmore Cartier Exploration Permit area of the Vulcan Sub-Basin,
located in the Bonaparte Basin in northwestern Australia within
uncontested Australian territorial waters.
The production licence and exploration permit are located
about 80 kms south west of the commercial Jabiru and Challis oil fields
and approximately 20 kms north of the Skua oilfield.
AED Oil is appraising and developing the oil discoveries and
proved reserves in the Puffin Field (comprising the accumulations
discovered by the Puffin-2, Puffin-5, Puffin-9 and Puffin-7 wells) and
exploring the adjacent areas.

SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS
*********************

Shares of AED Oil yesterday rose 1c to $5.05. Rolling high is
$5.20 and low $3.13. The company has 73.2 million shares on offer with a
market cap of $371 million.
AED Oil is continuing with its development of the Puffin Oil
field included in the production permit AC/L6 located about 700 kms west
of Darwin and about 80 kms southwest of the Challis and Jabiru oil
fields in the southern flank of the Vulcan sub-basin.
The company is progressing towards first oil production which is
currently scheduled for mid 2007.
The company has appointed Peter Behrenbruch as chief operating
officer who is a highly experienced oilman which is pertinent in
developing the company's ability to progress to a production company.
In the latest December half, reserves increased markedly.
The north P50 reserves in the northeast 1 region of the Puffin
oilfield increase significantly from an estimated 8.4 Mmbi to about 40
Mmbi of oil.
The Puffin northeast 2, Puffin northeast 3, and Puffin southwest
regions of the Puffin oilfield are presently being evaluated for
additional reserves.

BACKGROUND
**********

AED Oil Ltd was listed on the Australian Stock Exchange on May
3, 2005.
The company was established for the purpose of acquiring,
developing and commercialising specified oil fields and undertaking oil
exploration, with a primary focus on prospects located either in
Australia or within Australian territor

Mick100
17-04-2007, 07:44 PM
ASX Announcement
17 April 2007
AC/L6
Drilling Progress Report No. 8 for Puffin-8
Lower Well Completed
Puffin-8 well completion is making good progress, with the lower horizontal
completion run and pressure tested for good mechanical integrity.
Two separate zones have been completed with 6 5/8 inch screens. The plan is to
next run the upper completion inside the casing before pulling the Blow Out
Preventer (BOP) and installing the Sub -sea Tree.
The expectation is to flow the well during the last week of April, and to pull anchors
and demobilize the rig around the end of the month or early May 2007.

Crypto Crude
07-05-2007, 07:45 PM
I just wanted to thank your company for putting some stellar runs on the board last week, which continued into todays trading...
hope it comntinues...
Its been awhile since I posted here so I thought I'd revisit by favourite stock...

so I have been told, that AED have tradable options expiry in August at $5.5... were trading at 50cents last week... a stock surely to hit 7bucks come expiration date... returns to be made...

Convertiible notes are soon to be issued and tradable on an exchange (forget which one its tradable on) singapore or something... this will be great for shareholders, the terms on the convertible notes issue are starting to look rather attractive with recent gains, (as expected)...

Late last week AED had a presentation at Macquarie Bank and let it out that AED is now going to develope SW reserves, as expected by me.... I didnt hear any details other than that... this my explain the strong Friday run....
Doing a presentation at Macquarie is no easy feat... For them to allow a presentation their takes a company with Great fundamentals and in Macquaries portfolio which is great to have this being pushed by a large bank... Remember Macquarie took up all their entitlements to the Convertible notes issue plus some...

I would have thought the best time to Talk SW development would have been after NE production as SP would have reacted much stronger, (I guess we are to hear more about this down the line, Ise talking SW development here ages ago)... 80k BOPD with two FPSO's working in tandem likely...

AED have recently mentioned that First production is likely to start late June or early July...
depending on equipment!...


$6 bucks hit for the first time today...
any AED'ers out there?, should be some posting here by others given that this ones blown up and very likely to continue!
10bucks year end... as said many times before.... lata...
[8D]
.^sc

ASXIOU
07-05-2007, 09:56 PM
Hi SC

I'm still holding tight with no intention of selling yet. Has been a nice 12 months for AED with alot more to come. Nothing to do but sitback and wait.

Hold AED

skinny
08-05-2007, 08:11 AM
ditto

Sold a few back at $3.50 on reaching my estimate of "fair value" and maybe some blue sky in the current share price but then again difficult to say with all the recent drilling results looking pretty promising. Anyways, enjoying the ride.

Bel
09-05-2007, 09:02 AM
Was personally never going to sell before first oil. Patience is paying off, been holding since 1.12 and 1.39 days.

Crypto Crude
15-05-2007, 03:44 PM
quote:AUSTRALIA ASX Announcement
15 May 2007
New Appointments
As AED Oil Limited (AED) evolves into a production company there is a need to add to and change the human resources available to the Company. To this end AED has recently appointed an additional independent director, made senior appointments on the commercial side of the business, and is recruiting a number of technical personnel.
Non Executive Director
AED is delighted to announce the appointment of Richard Price as an independent director of AED Oil Limited, effective from 14 May 2007.
Richard Price has had extensive experience in the provision of strategic, corporate and financial advice to major public companies over the last 20 years. Richard is an Executive Director within Macquarie Bank’s Investment Banking Group, with particular expertise in the resources and energy sectors. He has an honours degree in Civil Engineering and a Masters of Business Administration, both from the University of Melbourne.
Prior to entering investment banking, Richard practised as a consulting Civil Engineer with Camp Scott Furphy, and is actively involved in the philanthropic sector, including his role as chairman of The Song Room.
Richard will increase the number of independent directors on the AED Board from two to three, joining John Branson and Barry McGuiness.
Chief Financial Officer
In addition, AED is also delighted to announce the appointment of Richard Little as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective from 14 May 2007. Richard has had a distinguished career in accounting and finance and, for the last seven years, has worked in the resources industry with Newcrest Mining Limited. For the last four years, he has been the General Financial Reporting Manager of Newcrest.
Prior to joining Newcrest, Richard worked with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu for ten years in assurance and advisory services.
General Manager Marketing
Trevor Slater, the present Chief Financial Officer (CFO), has been appointed to head up a new team managing crude oil marketing and will commence this role effective from 14 May 2007. Trevor will continue in his existing role of Company Secretary and member of the AED audit and risk committee.

Page 2 of 2 Joint Company Secretary
Elizabeth Back will remain as Legal Counsel for AED, but step down as joint Company Secretary.
Technical Personnel
Subsequent announcements in relation to the appointment of technical personnel and on the production geology and geophysics side will be announced in due course.


AED are roadshowing in America at the moment stirring up abit of support which seems to be running well...
the stellar returns continue day on day ATM...
New managment seems highly qualified...
happy for the exposure AED is putting on my other holding....
Remember, Good Oil Conference next week...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
15-05-2007, 03:47 PM
Hummmm....
were my long standing targets of 10bucks by end of this year set to low...
Oh well, what ever happens this ones got along way to go...
and still on track to one day hit 20bucks if all continues to fall in place...
[8D]
.^sc

laurie
15-05-2007, 03:54 PM
Now if they get their finger out and fix that web site :(

cheers laurie

laurie
15-05-2007, 05:52 PM
One would think that AED looks now like it could attract a T/O offer from the big boys which would send the sp up a steep cliff with top management hold approx 38% the price they would have to pay would be at a premium I hope this does not happen because there is still a lot of steam left in the engine :2twocents

cheers laurie

Crypto Crude
15-05-2007, 07:26 PM
Laurie...
I dont think that AED is a takeover target...
a takeover would have happened here along time ago if one was ever going to eventuate...Its getting more expensive every day that a hostile bid doesnt come through...
Although anything can change at any instance...
anyway, your company will unfold over time and wont need a takeover to spur the SP to much higher levels...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
27-05-2007, 12:04 PM
courtesy of greensyster
AED Oil
Coverage initiation
Stock: AED AU
Recommendation: Outperform

Event

We initiate coverage of AED Oil with an Outperform recommendation and A$7.90 target price.

Impact

Delivering the cornerstone development: AED Oil is currently developing the Puffin oil field (100%) with first oil expected mid-August 2007. The Puffin oil field is AED Oil's cornerstone development and is located ~700km west of Darwin, and 80km south west of the mature Challis and Jabiru oil fields. We forecast AED Oil to produce up to ~8mmbbl in 2008 from the FPSO Front Puffin.

Reserve growth potential: AED Oil expects its 40mmbbl 2P reserve base to grow significantly as oil initially in place (OIIP) estimates are de-risked through seismic re-interpretation, appraisal drilling and field production. We highlight that the Puffin South West region has the potential to significantly increase AED Oil's current 2P reserves. AED Oil is currently evaluating all available data and is expected to confirm SW reserve estimates by first oil.

Further regional upside: AED Oil expects to begin a three well program (two confirmed, one optional) in October, focused on appraising the Puffin North East 2 and South West regions. The greater Puffin horst area has the potential for additional exploration and development upside following project delivery.

Strong demand expected for Puffin's crude: Puffin is expected to produce a high quality, light (API of ~44 degrees) sweet crude, which is forecast to trade at a premium to Tapis. We note that Tapis is currently trading at a US$9-11/bbl premium to West Texas Intermediate (WTI). We currently forecast Puffin's crude to trade at a ~US$6/bbl premium to our WTI forecast in 2008, with risk to the upside.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: A$7.90 based on a discounted cash flow methodology.

Catalyst: Reserves upgrade following review of OIIP estimates and reprocess/analysis of seismic and well data. Delivery of Puffin development by mid-August. Further appraisal drilling.

Action and recommendation

We initiate with an Outperform recommendation.

AED Oil is an emerging oil development company currently focused on delivering the Puffin oil field. We highlight that although AED Oil is leveraged to some significant reserve and production upside, it presents a higher risk investment thesis than its Exploration & Production peers with asset and commodity diversification. Unique risks specific to AED Oil include project delivery risk, single asset exposure and commodity prices.

Macquarie


SC...-&gt;latest report from macquarie Have first oil now mid August...
have a one year target price of 7.9 [V].... who the hell makes these ridiculous valuations...
some damn puppet on strings...
pinocchio, hes got an extended nose, and he cant stop telling lies...
and neither can the latest 1 year price target for AED oil from Macquarie...
what the hell kinda valuations are going on here...
10bucks year end still stands...
dont listen to this report, listen to your counterpart SC

macquarie also have 'outperform' on the stock
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
28-05-2007, 12:07 PM
trading up to 7 bucks fifty this morning....
macquarie have predicted a shareprice target of 790cents for the next year......
monkey throwing darts at the board stuff going on here...

this target price is far more of an outrage when ABN ambros put a $1.6 target price on NZO a year or few back...

absolutely disgusting how price target could be so so wrong...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 11:47 AM
ASX Announcement
ACQUISITION OF TALBOT OIL FIELD
AED Oil Limited (AED) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement to
acquire Retention Lease AC/RL1, including the Talbot Oil Field.
Under the agreement, AED will acquire 100 percent of AC/RL1 from Apache Northwest
Pty Ltd for a cash consideration of AUD 2 million. The sale will be effective 2 July
2007.
A further announcement regarding the acquisition will follow.
[8D]
.^sc

The Plunger
31-05-2007, 12:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

ASX Announcement
ACQUISITION OF TALBOT OIL FIELD
...



Can't believe Apache are walking away with just $2M, must have left a ORR/NPI on it surely. But good for AED, what do they know that the others don't. Talbot is also adjacent to AC/P32. I tell you, that whole region is hotting up - IMHO [8D]

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 01:11 PM
Well I tell you what Plunger...
Puffin and Timor Sea have looked after me handsomely...
and will continue to do so... in particular Im looking at this area and a few companys in it including BUY...(for a future play)
still wishing I hadnot needed to sell to fund the nwe royalty...
AED is my all time favourite company and looks like it will smash 10 bucks year end...
and in position for a shot at 20bucks in the not tooo distant future...
much of this will depend on Oct 3 drill program in which will involve mostly non wild cat drills...drilling will enhance production and resource in SW and NE...
possibly one wild cat within this highly prospective region...

Talbot oil field has small reserves, this could easily change..
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 01:47 PM
wow, another anouncement on the Talbot field...
check it out...
first production target in late 2008...
this stock is a screaming buy...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 01:49 PM
SP currently at $7.6
screaming I tells yah...
[8D]
.^sc

laurie
31-05-2007, 05:13 PM
hmmmm $2m! that's one day production for AED how come Apache sold it so cheap assuming they did not get a royalty like NWE or did they?

cheers laurie

Huang Chung
31-05-2007, 09:09 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but AED acquired approximately 10 mmbl of recoverable oil for a cost of $2m....that's 20c a barrel !!

OK, what's the catch [?] On the face of it, it seems like the buy of the century. Are there any questions about the viability of extracting this oil [?]

65km from Puffin, so you can't imagine any shared facilities with Puffin, could you.

I defer to Shrewd and the other oilers out there for their views.

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 10:00 PM
quote:laurie Posted - 31/05/2007 : 6:13:24 PM
hmmmm $2m! that's one day production for AED how come Apache sold it so cheap assuming they did not get a royalty like NWE or did they?
cheers laurie

Laurie ive had abit of alook into Apache and I cant find much at all... cant see them on the listed ASX stocks board... cant find their website, cant find their ticker code...
Im assuming that Apache have had real problems and are selling down their assets....
Apache would have got a gain on sale of this asset...

in 2003 Apache pleaded guilty for failing to carry out good oilfield pracitice ad secure the safety, health and Welfare of persons engaged in its operations...

in 2001, The Department of Minerals and Energy prosecuted Apache Northwest Pty Ltd over an incident involving a spill of approximately 25 cubic metres of light crude oil off Varanus Island, approximately 110 kilometres west of Dampier, on 26 July 1999.

For Apache, development would be lot more complex, AED have competitive advantages over Apache in the Timor sea because of AED's presence, and knowledge of Puffin and its surrounding area... Great synergies for AED with dual timor sea permits...

Laurie, I cant see if Apache get a royalty or not as im going off the same info as you and its not clear at the moment...
today was real great news for your company.... SW and talbot production in 2008...
you must be stoked...
flowrates upwards of 5k....along with the 38k NE, and 30 something in SW....
[8D]
.^sc

Huang Chung
31-05-2007, 10:20 PM
Apache is BIG!

Production in 2006 was 182.9 MMboe

Proven reserves 2,313.2 MMboe

Website is www.apachecorp.com

Aussie website is www.apache-energy.com.au

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 10:37 PM
quote:
Huang Chung
1.....Correct me if I'm wrong, but AED acquired approximately 10 mmbl of recoverable oil for a cost of $2m....that's 20c a barrel !!
2.....OK, what's the catch On the face of it, it seems like the buy of the century.
3.....Are there any questions about the viability of extracting this oil
4.....65km from Puffin, so you can't imagine any shared facilities with Puffin, could you.

hey HC...
1.... yes the 2nd sesmic,3d,the permit, the two previous production wells flowing 5k each comes to about 25cents per barrel on recoverable resource.... with upside scope...
with a horizontal production hole I would hardly be surprised if the upgrade resource just like they did time and time again with NE and SW... and they could do it again with the SW...!.... remember AED have to develop the project and get a FPSO and drill another production hole,
2..... yes it does seem like a cheap as chips buy.... I remember back a few years ago CUE bought their Maari stake off another operator for a few bucks per barrel on proven resource...
3.... none that I know of, development set to go and looking to be producing towards the end of 2008....
4..... nape, will be a seperate development....
this is quoted from the announcement-"it (talbot) also has exploration potential and may provide synergies with the Puffin field development including the Puffin SW region development which is presently being considered"....

come on man, "considering SW development".... SW is a goer and I new it over 6 months ago.... its highly profitable to produce SW, time to come out with the announcement and confirm it....
this company is a screaming buy IMO, 50% will be made here over the next year without a doubt IMO....
10 dollars will be smoked this year... and my target now looks meager....

yes you are right HC, Apache is Big.. they must be American right...... I cant come up with any other reasons why Apache would sell. other than they are focusing on other areas... maybe this resource is too small for them....
the company that sold out to AED are a subsidary of Apache the Parent company...
so Apache Northwest pty ltd was having problems and not Apache....
to be honest, I dont really care about Apache...
AED have a new permit and it looks good to you and me also...
[8D]
.^sc

Crypto Crude
31-05-2007, 10:39 PM
in my above posts im referring to Apache Northwest pty ltd, and not Apache...
[8D]
.^sc

cloggs
02-07-2007, 01:52 PM
Thought Friday's anouncement and today's anouncement make it worth bringing this one to the top of the forum. AED up by over a $, and just made a very nice anouncement about Puffin West.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20070702/pdf/31377qm8wnc7gd.pdf

skinny
02-07-2007, 05:31 PM
Having bought this at $1.30 I'd have to say the thread title is perfect :D:D

ASXIOU
02-07-2007, 06:05 PM
Has been a a very nice little earner this AED over the last 12 months or so. Only thing now is dreading the tax bill should I decide to ever sell any....

Mick100
02-07-2007, 06:13 PM
quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU

Has been a a very nice little earner this AED over the last 12 months or so. Only thing now is dreading the tax bill should I decide to ever sell any....


Take a good long holiday in NZ ASXIOU (about one yr) when you decide to sell.
,

45south
02-07-2007, 06:50 PM
Hi lucky holders
Ive tried hoping on this run away train a couple of times, but been left at station.Sitting on AZA, comfertable ride, not moving.

Huang Chung
02-07-2007, 07:14 PM
Sold out today :D.....may live to regret it.[V]

What a great ride its been!

Would have stayed if I didn't need to deploy funds elsewhere. Good luck to all those still holding. ;)

ASXIOU
02-07-2007, 10:21 PM
quote:Originally posted by Mick100


quote:Originally posted by ASXIOU

Has been a a very nice little earner this AED over the last 12 months or so. Only thing now is dreading the tax bill should I decide to ever sell any....


Take a good long holiday in NZ ASXIOU (about one yr) when you decide to sell.
,


Not a bad idea Mick although my plans are a little bigger..... Like between this and RCO (which hasn't started it's run yet) retiring before i'm 25...?

Bel
03-07-2007, 07:15 AM
Theres many things in the sharemarket that i don't get. One of them being.

How come AED sp started north dramatically as soon as trading opened yet the announcement regarding the 40mil barrels wasn't till 12:30?

Is that insider trading or am i just paranoid?

-Still holding.

ASXIOU
03-07-2007, 10:13 AM
quote:Originally posted by Bel

Theres many things in the sharemarket that i don't get. One of them being.

How come AED sp started north dramatically as soon as trading opened yet the announcement regarding the 40mil barrels wasn't till 12:30?

Is that insider trading or am i just paranoid?

-Still holding.


Bel, initial excietement was due to announcment released on Friday night after market had closed, Yesterday's announcement was just a bonus...

Romer
03-07-2007, 10:38 AM
The pre-trade is amazing. You'd almost think they had the bids and offers round the wrong way! Will be interesting to see what it opens at.
[8)]

cloggs
03-07-2007, 12:03 PM
ASXIOU, I bought this one as a direct result of you starting this thread, (on the same day actually). Now sitting on exactly 500% gain. I've thanked you before, but its worth another mention.... Ta!

macduffy
03-07-2007, 02:45 PM
Has anyone read today's research from Macquaries?
My interest is in NWE.

Crypto Crude
03-07-2007, 02:49 PM
hey macduffy...
first post, welcome aboard...
I havnot seen todays research from macquaries... I would be interested in seeing it if someone was kind to post it...
otherwise, I'll see if I can track it down...

Id also like to thankyou again ASXIOU for putting me onto AED...
bought 1.34 sold 4.86 .... bought NWE average 16.8 ....
will hold NWE for the foreseeable future...
[8D]
.^sc

ASXIOU
09-07-2007, 10:53 PM
quote:Originally posted by Shrewd Crude

I'd also like to thankyou again ASXIOU for putting me onto AED...
bought 1.34 sold 4.86 .... bought NWE average 16.8 ....
will hold NWE for the foreseeable future...
[8D]
.^sc


No worries SC. NWE also an excellent hold. All the upside from Puffin with much less downside if things were to go pear-shaped.

Mick100
08-10-2007, 12:42 PM
ASX Announcement
8 October 2007
First Oil Production and Drilling Update
Puffin- NE Development
AED (AED or the Company) advises that the Puffin North East Development has
commenced production, with first hydrocarbons from Puffin-8 reaching topsides at
16.21 hours last Saturday, 6 October.
Puffin-8 has been producing up to around 12,000 stb/d on a ¾ inch choke before
being shut in, and Puffin-7 has subsequently been commissioned, reaching a maximum
rate of around 16,000 stb/d over night.
Currently, the flow from both wells is being combined and the plan is to gradually
increase the total flow through the process facilities to the interim commissioning
rate of 27,000 stb/d late today, before progressing to stabilized production rate.
Puffin SW drilling Update
Further to the ASX release on 5 October 2007 the Company advises that the Wilcraft
drilling rig is now on location and is in preparation to commence drilling the Puffin-10
production well located in the Puffin SW region.
/

Pearl
09-10-2007, 09:17 AM
Woohoo my first ten bagger.
First oil!!! Yay!

Results like these are why we all invest in equities.

zac
11-10-2007, 12:31 PM
AED OIL's (ASX:AED) star continues to rise.
After the stock hit a record $10.37 Monday on news of first oil
production from the Puffin North East Development, Standard & Poor's
last night announced AED would be joining the S&P/ASX 200 index.

macduffy
15-10-2007, 02:30 PM
For what its worth, Macquarie Equities has downgraded its rec on AED to Neutral, largely on their view that the world oil price will retrace somewhat towards the end of the year. They don't explain reasoning for this. Meanwhile, I'm contemplating increasing my holding in NWE as the Puffin oil starts to flow.

Disc: Hold NWE but not AED

Viking
13-11-2007, 11:42 AM
“Puffin SW - Puffin-10 Drilling Update
Drilling of Puffin-10 has made progress in the horizontal section and is currently
drilling ahead at 3608m MD (Measured Depth). Depth along hole is 1997m
TVDSS (True Vertical Depth Subsea). A minor oil bearing sand has been
intersected but the main UK1a sand is expected to be intersected near the existing
Puffin-2 well in the near future.
Production Update – Puffin NE
Most systems at Puffin NE have been commissioned; gaslift has operated on an
interim basis with some tuning and equipment issues preventing the lifting of
production to the revised levels. As indicated in the last update, production in the
short term has been significantly held back to facilitate gaslift and water handling
systems commissioning and accordingly current production is running at
approximately 10,000 bopd. The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is
scheduled for 29 November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and
equipment matters resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take
place following this.”


Wondering why does the SP continue to slide while petrol price is up? Especially when production looks to be increased~?? :?

bermuda
14-11-2007, 03:29 PM
I think AED should come out and tell the market what is actually going on.Just what is the post commissioning barrels per day figure now going to be.

Their sp is getting slaughtered because the market fears an output downgrade.

Poor form AED. Sharpen up your act.

Mick100
14-11-2007, 03:56 PM
I think AED should come out and tell the market what is actually going on.Just what is the post commissioning barrels per day figure now going to be.

Their sp is getting slaughtered because the market fears an output downgrade.

Poor form AED. Sharpen up your act.

They already have announced that daily production would be 25000 bpd rather than the estimated 30000. Going by the current production of 10000 bpd, I don't believe they will get to 25000 bpd and the market does'nt believe it either. The best we can hope for is 20000 in my opinion - still, the oil should be pumping for longer at a slower than forcast rate of production

Tech Step
15-11-2007, 01:05 AM
I got an email from the CEO of NWE and he said that if the flow rate is down then AED will probably just have to drill another well to get the desired rate. This is the perfect time to jump onto NWE. The free carried dollars are the best at the moment.

enjoy...

seaosh
21-11-2007, 04:43 PM
Any thoughts on the AGM today?

They mentioned a new smaller production target of 20k barrels per day. It also seemed that this may be a maximum target rather than a most likely target. Good to have some certainty but not going to be good news if they undershoot even this reduced target.

At the same time though they seem to think that through adding a second well plus a swivel they may be able to increase production to as much as 36k barrels per day (see p 31 of the post-AGM Technical Presentation). There doesn't seem to be any time frame though as to when this might happen.

I guess it could have been worse, and hopefully the bad news is now out of the way and things will gradually improve.

bermuda
21-11-2007, 07:21 PM
I think AED should come out and tell the market what is actually going on.Just what is the post commissioning barrels per day figure now going to be.

Their sp is getting slaughtered because the market fears an output downgrade.

Poor form AED. Sharpen up your act.

Finally got it out. Very poor form.

soulman
29-11-2007, 04:22 PM
Wow, is this coy in a freefall or what. $11 in mid Oct and 6 weeks later at $4.30's. That's volatility at the extreme.

Huang Chung
29-11-2007, 04:47 PM
Watching in amazement soulman. Surely the market is over-reacting here?

Viking
30-11-2007, 05:21 PM
When reading the topic of this tread "Ridiculously Under-valued" and looking at the SP dropping like a stone over the last month~ you be wondering~ surely there are something more to meets the eye~

Has the market been over-reacted with this one?? :confused:

Crypto Crude
02-12-2007, 03:11 PM
viking,
has the market overreacted with this one?

....
hey viking,
AED has changed dramatically in the last month in particular, as we can see... the market has reacted accordingly to fall in output of NE field... And also worrying signs about SW as Puffin 10 was a development/production well but didnot provide the goods which was an expectation of success... This will ultimately delay SW program while they work out what to do with this 40.3million barrel certified reserve accumulation....earlier this year we were planning/expecting between 35-40k barrels per day of oil from NE field... costs are fixed so AED's margins are falling... AED's resource is valued at approximately $8 billion, they will need to drill more wells to get the desired effects one would assume...
...
AED does have plenty of potential to lift off these levels and I do see buying opportunities here soon...
....Im quite keen to continue watching NWE as there are a few oilers of buying quality around and I can afford to be alittle greedy by picking and choosing... NWE royalty with 10,000 BOPD is around 4million per year and with a MC of something like 40million makes this a bargin hunting stock... Plenty of time has passed since little norwest was last seen sub 20cents, and the other assets including cobra drill offer some big upside with it being pre-discovered...Market doesnot seem to understand the quality of this company and its other assets, and strategic relationships with the likes of Bharat petroleum...
...
AED had been the most communicative company I had seen when all was going great guns blazing in pre production stage... when they ran into problems, they couldnot offer timely updates as we came to expect of the company...
....
Im out, see you all next weekend...
...
:cool:
.^sc

Viking
03-12-2007, 09:48 AM
Thank you SC, for such insightful comments on AED~
Feels there are so much more I had to learn about oiler~
I am also trying to keep up with some readings with NWE~ looks like a interesting company~ :)

soulman
10-12-2007, 05:34 PM
Overreacting it seems. Not a follower of AED but a big bounce today for holders out there.

Kropotkin
11-12-2007, 03:53 PM
damn me for a coward and not picking some up @ 360cps
should have stusted that volume support :o

Viking
11-12-2007, 06:26 PM
You are not along Kropotkin~ :p
It is bit difficult to be brave at time like this~ even though I did keep quite a close eye on it~

scorp57
11-12-2007, 07:45 PM
i doubled my holding at $4... i was only annoyed coz i could have bought 10% cheaper the next day. but not worried now...

$3.50 was a joke. i traded my bank stocks to buy more, thats how sure i was!

300,000 odd barrels of oil a month. thats the bare minimum we can expect from this company... i mean come on... they werent gonna stay at sub $4 for long.

bermuda
11-01-2008, 09:56 AM
Scorp 57
A very timely update by AED which is encouraging.The shareprice will recover but the big punters will be awaiting the news on the cash raising. NWE would be my preferred exposure at this stage

yogi-in-oz
11-01-2008, 11:53 AM
:)

Hi folks,

AED ... will be alert for more positive news, later this month, as
2 time cycles come out to play:

25-28012008 ... 2 positive cycles ... financial details of January offtake???

However, February/March will likely bring some negative sentiment for AED:

21-25022008 ... 2 cycles ... negative spotlight on AED

2702-10032008 ... underlying negative sntiment = flat trading ???

17-18032008 ... 2 cycles ... significant and negative news expected

19032008 ... minor and positive cycle

25032008 ... minor

04-07042008 ... minor news expected

09042008 ... minor

18-21042008 ... significant and positive news

24042008 ... positive spotlight on AED ...

02052008 ... positive cycle ... finances???

05052008 ... negative news expected here

19052008 ... minor cycle

23-26052008 ... negative spotlight on AED

29052008 ... negative cycle ... finances???

More later .....

happy days

paul

=====

Taijon
24-01-2008, 02:40 PM
Followers of Yogi probably wouldn't touch this with a bargepole. The company's problems and failure to achieve production expectations have resulted in a heavy fall in the SP.

Mattyroo (whose comments I value) had inciteful comments about delays and potential problems before the FPSO left Singapore. The consensus from SC and others seemed to be NWE was a better bet, because of its guaranteed royalties, in the event of potential problems coming to fruition.

The latest AED annoncement seems to indicate to me that the production situation can be fixed, it will cost money but how much hasn't been stated, the current stream of revenue is much lower than planned, and other parties are interested in getting a stake while AED is in this predicament. Macquaries are doing a review.

I've never held AED but it seems to me at a SP around $2 it could be worth getting in. A year ago the SP was more than $11.

Mattyroo and others, any thoughts? Can the current problems be rectifed within a reasonable time trame and cost?

Crypto Crude
03-02-2008, 10:19 AM
taijon-
1)Followers of Yogi probably wouldn't touch this with a bargepole. The company's problems and failure to achieve production expectations have resulted in a heavy fall in the SP.

2) Mattyroo (whose comments I value) had inciteful comments about delays and potential problems before the FPSO left Singapore. The consensus from SC and others seemed to be NWE was a better bet, because of its guaranteed royalties, in the event of potential problems coming to fruition.

3) The latest AED annoncement seems to indicate to me that the production situation can be fixed,

4) it will cost money but how much hasn't been stated,

5)the current stream of revenue is much lower than planned, and other parties are interested in getting a stake while AED is in this predicament.

6)Macquaries are doing a review.

7) I've never held AED but it seems to me at a SP around $2 it could be worth getting in. A year ago the SP was more than $11.

8) Mattyroo and others, any thoughts? Can the current problems be rectifed within a reasonable time trame and cost?

hEy TaiJon,
AED UPDATE...here comes a late reply since my last post and delayed for good reasons... Current SP has AED cheap but SP could still likely to remain volatile until more action is taked to rectify the problem...
I will try and explain all your points/questions and I will brake them down...
I will also add in abit of insight that Ive recently thought up, but it is speculation...... AED has already started to unravel the need for further assistance...here it goes

1) yogi made a good call of his prediction between 25-28th of Jan, 'two positive cycles' between those dates turned in one trading day of plus 9% for his call... re-open trading on the monday saw it fallback 7% though...so he did pick it correctly...
yogi said positive news in April which would run hand in hand with an announcement about a JV partner and farm out agreement within that time frame...I would also expect the SP to run at times leading into a market announced Partnership agreement and I will explain the benefits to AED and brief this soon if it does eventuate....

2) yes it was mattyroo's comments that warned me off the stock and caused me to sell completely out of NWE...
there was a big showdown on SS...
I will talk about NWE at the end...

3) Yes it can be turned around under a few situations....... Large cash outlay to workover the wells, and/or redrill other wells...this would most likely be funded by a partnership agreement...AED have one last ditch effort to go it alone one would feel...
mattyroo, can this problem be solved relatively inexpensively without mad costs? yes good question taijon...
Yes the company has said that production could increase by a "factor of 2-3", but they do not say how they are going to achieve that other than drill more development wells.We are not told what the actual remedial work is that could take place.. AED are rather secretive on the exact details of how they are going to fix flow rate problems, And I tend to be bambozzeled by what they say the reasons for flow rate problems are...... I believe the market has also been confused with this and dumped AED on poor disclosure aswell as poor performance... The company is in contact with technical experts which proves they can't fix this problem on their own... my speculation is that some sort of deal with an oiler major will come... AED supplies the asset, another company supplies the expertise, and cashflow as AED can't fix the problem alone it appears, and cost wise to fix will drain AED... They have debts and further development expenditure to come...revenues from start up period to quarter ending dec 2007 totaling 839k Barrels of highly valuable tapis quality crude. ..Cash receipts collected for that quarter ended dec 07 were $64million AUS.. over 1million barrels produced as at now...
Very strong oil prices have offset some of the impact of low flow rates...

4) What will it cost to fix?
Yes this is a big unknown, It depends on if the current consultants to AED can help... AED farm out agreement (if it happens)
depends on what AED hope to get out of this next year in development activities and therefore corresponding costs... we could potentially be looking at a hundred million dollar deal, or why not just a takeover of AED instead?
It would be wrong for me to speculate how much, or what stake of the company is up for grabs.... It could be big, or just small, or nothing if short term work bears fruit... But with AED in current debt of 170million , then theres no reason why it shouldnot be a big deal....
AED SP would go ballistic on a deal


what it will cost? it will cost a new Joint Venture partner thats what it will cost...This will be in exchange for a stake in the Puffin Fields... I pray that AED remain majority and do not sell away control of the asset......Four further wells in the NE (Puffin 11 - 3rd quarter at best) are in planning stage with SW, Talbot, hopefully one exploration well,this will require hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars.... AEDs expected quarterly expenditure for this current quarter starting Jan 1st is estimated to be 75Million alone... also 176million used on loan facility of just over 180million
....
AED is required to pay a whole bunch of royalties to a list of companies, one of them is NWE. AED have to pay loans back. AED have to pay for operating costs which are fixed, such as leasing and operating FPSO which is $33 AUS per barrel (a major)... double production would see this fixed cost pretty much half per barrel... to go it alone would suck up ongoing increased cash reserves of this company for many many years.... AED have an incentive for agreement as higher output would slash average oil costs....
It is so exciting for what could happen to AED. I wouldnot count out something big here.

5)
Yes AED are in a predicament. And they potentially only have one more well in it for the rest of the year if they were to continue going at it alone for the next 4-5 months with no turnaround....I believe this will not happen and AED will get an agreement to effectively farm out a small stake, farm out 30-40% or be taken over... This is of course speculation only. But read the recent AED announcements...

6) Hummmm.... Yes they are playing as the investment banker who will trade the deal and take a profit off the transaction between AED and another market player...Yes this is why they are doing a review of AED.. They are getting a valuation for a potential bidder/stake selloff...

7)yes, hummm...
AED was not at $11 for no reason... low flow rates have ruled the roust and there is no evidence to say that AED wont restore NE production to 30k and add in SW and talbot production....there is also no evidence forth coming to suggest that AED will restore 30k BOPD, bar further costly wells......
50-60k BOPD total production still seems quite achieveable for a period before decline and water issues...the risk return tradeoff is clearly set..

the potential market value of the deal could be worth more than the current market value of AED...154million shares * 2.24aus =$345m MC....
AED had recoverable reserves in place at 100million. $3.45 per barrel, not including the convertible notes...bargain....
The Company stated that SW reserves have not been revised downwards after failure of Puffin 10 well because of further leads, canceling out initial downgrades...
even at 75million barrels recoverable at say a steady average price of $90aus =$6 and 3/4 billion valued asset in revenue terms. and this doesnot include exploration potential in the surrounding region within AC/P22...

8)Timeframe,
Hum, AED are getting help from an international consulting firm which is supplying its expertise for help with the current issue to solve low flow rates. In my interpretation I am assuming this wont work and that AED will need a large partner to fund this expansive turnaround of SW and uping NE flow rates/ or take the risk of much slower development with revenues extended out over a much longer time period. inturn, slowing activities down... if these first steps do not work (consultation remedies) then a deal is on the cards........ Im telling you now...
IMO a share placement is not on the cards, but cannot be completely ruled out...
a Share Placement would dilute the value of our shares for minimum money raised at this SP, and would 'cap' a big market rise on an otherwise target of retesting $10... which is still possible but not with a big placement which would otherwise dilute the value of the company..... AED previously said they will be looking after initial investors and a sell out like that at a low SP would destroy this company until at least a deal is made...

.... A Coogee Farmin would make sense Eah??? they have the drilling rig... Im sure Macquarie will enforce an agreement if AED dont get flow rates up by mid year... (as previously said 75Million quarter development expenditure
expected)...
Recommendation, the longer the Flow rates dont get sorted, then the further SP could fall... but AED are possibly way undervalued right now so could rise up...the predicament...
Im not sure how market will treat AED now, it surely looks attractive under some of the assumptions ive made...

AED have said that they do not know the best solution to the problem with flow rates and are still collecting ideas, or are still searching to find the best solution to the problem...
Subject to funding arrangement/ fair JV negotiation and appropriate treatment of existing flow rate problems.... which would be a major outcome deal for AED...could see SP at $5 easily ignoring short term volatility..THis would require AED to continue to be a majority stake holder....
The announcement of what this deal will be worth to AED (IF one ever comes) will be the companies biggest announcement of the year, and quite possibly of its history.... Im reading between the lines with this one.... BUT, AED MAY just sell down 10% or 25% and get a small carry for awhile...

In the past, all the evidence pointed to strong flow rates and a screaming buy as the SP rose all the way up, the stock was a screaming buy even at $11 off old info ....In production stage all has changed with now a somewhat quiet and secretive nature of reporting and lower flow rates..

....we badly need an update as to whats going on and how flow rates will be sorted..
In all likeliness, These exploration prospects are falling years behind now as more work is required in NE, and SW if no finance related news is announced...
reserves still make AED an attractive investment on paper...
not yet in actual cashflow returns...

I personally think that AED is a buy right now in anticipation of further announcements from JV farmin in months to come... maybe wait one more month? and belief that company making flow rates could come in if enough money is thrown at the problem....AED have already said that they have interest from multiple outside parties, so shareholders should get value if a deal is made... I believe The SP will run on speculation alone, but maybe not have hit the bottom just yet... im still unsure with the markets and all
SW development is now effectively in standstill....
AED has $33 AUS in fixed costs for mainly FPSO hire...
lower revenues and cashflow balances willnot allow company to take this on alone on this sort of expansive level...
rising production rates will see fixed costs per barrel fall, and revenues increase massively in proportion... A deal is in AED's best interests...

where to from here to get flow rates up...
1- NE workover program, and implement strategy to increase flow rates, quote '2-3 fold'.... market hasnot been told of how this will happen...bar dropping in expensive wells
2- Speed forth SW first production...
3- fall back on Talbot as a last result...
4- some sort of
speculation-deal with Coogee...
5- consultation advice works and remedial action takes place successfully?
....
....
what the helll, it said the post was too long, so I will post the section on NWE below this post.... haha...
As a reader of this post you have to make your own mind up...
On Paper AED is cheap...
I cannot be certain as to how the market will deal with AED in a short term...looking past the short term, this company looks safe, but may run...
DYOR and be prepared for risk with big possible returns...

Im / We are, interested to here from mattyroo as to how this problem could be solved without further drilling...
:cool:
.^sc

Crypto Crude
03-02-2008, 10:37 AM
NWE is surely the way to go...
AS TRICHA SAID, ANY ACTION TO INCREASE PRODUCTION IS GREAT NEWS FOR LITTLE NORWEST AS WE CARRY ZERO COSTS AND TAKE EXACTLY THE SAME CUT OF PRODUCTION...
... FOR NWE Time doesnot matter as long as reserves are pumped..Time for AED does matter because of costs...... SW reserves are going to decrease I believe...geology is more complex than first thought....

NWE have North Sea drill ready to spud in a few weeks time and the permit is pre-discovered, a company maker in itself.
I cant recall off memory the exact details of NWE's North Sea stake agreement off memory, but NWE are close to a free carry im sure...
expect SP to go bullish bar offsetting news from AED as we get closer to spud and mid drill.... recent announcements of AC/P32 have NWE at dry hole costs of 6%.... developed discovery at 15%, and a 15% stake no matter what happens.... two hundred million barrels target off two zones...quarter of this will rocket the stock, downside protected from cash reserves and AED royalty...
2.5cents per share cash in bank off memory...
30million market cap approx and 4million in royalties per year off current low production volumes...
any increase in flow rates at Puffin will put NWE on an extremely low PE ratio
I have 'dodged bullets baby' by not buying into NWE at 20cents. Thinking through a clear path of how actions are going to be made to solve flow rates is like jumping a barb wirer fence and getting balls caught... haha...
With current flow rates AED is a good buy at $2.30 with what is to come IMO... a strong buy at $2....
.... all in all, forget about AED and focus on NWE... this pumping little company is tied into the AED falling sp but should not be falling for the same reasons that AED is because of the different cost setups...
NWE is far more diversified and has other company making projects in the stream which are all offset by AED's royalty...
this makes NWE attractive investment around these prices...
in potential alone, NWE could be dollars in SP...
at worst SP will still be above what it currently is at now later in the year which is 16cents...
This is not intended to be a ramp, Im still looking to enter this stock and may look for an entry for North Sea..Im going nuts here with mad bargain oil stocks screaming for me to at least make a cheeky bid...
Arrrghhhh market risk...
market risk only plays a small part in the collapse of AED and NWE....
NWE's collapse from 20c is unjustified...
:cool:
.^sc

scorp57
03-02-2008, 08:24 PM
Definately a take over target, however, strongly undervalued "IF" it can solve its current problems relatively quickly...

The amount of oil they own in the ground is amazing for a company with such a market cap, and although revenues and flow rates are way under expectations, at least they are producing 10,000 BOPD minimum...

whoever gets to farm in is getting a bargain, because the work up untill this point has been done.

If AED can solve their problems and get on their way to 60,000 BOPD over the next 2-3 years (which is still very possible IMO) we will be looking at a SP probably 10 fold what it is now...

still amazing potential, and not pie-in-the-sky if you ask me, thats what i like about them. RISK is evident with further problems with wells, but problems can be solved.

tricha
03-02-2008, 09:58 PM
NWE is surely the way to go...
AS TRICHA SAID, ANY ACTION TO INCREASE PRODUCTION IS GREAT NEWS FOR LITTLE NORWEST AS WE CARRY ZERO COSTS AND TAKE EXACTLY THE SAME CUT OF PRODUCTION...
... FOR NWE Time doesnot matter as long as reserves are pumped..Time for AED does matter because of costs...... SW reserves are going to decrease I believe...geology is more complex than first thought....

NWE have North Sea drill ready to spud in a few weeks time and the permit is pre-discovered, a company maker in itself.
I cant recall off memory the exact details of NWE's North Sea stake agreement off memory, but NWE are close to a free carry im sure...
expect SP to go bullish bar offsetting news from AED as we get closer to spud and mid drill.... recent announcements of AC/P32 have NWE at dry hole costs of 6%.... developed discovery at 15%, and a 15% stake no matter what happens.... two hundred million barrels target off two zones...quarter of this will rocket the stock, downside protected from cash reserves and AED royalty...
2.5cents per share cash in bank off memory...
30million market cap approx and 4million in royalties per year off current low production volumes...
any increase in flow rates at Puffin will put NWE on an extremely low PE ratio
I have 'dodged bullets baby' by not buying into NWE at 20cents. Thinking through a clear path of how actions are going to be made to solve flow rates is like jumping a barb wirer fence and getting balls caught... haha...
With current flow rates AED is a good buy at $2.30 with what is to come IMO... a strong buy at $2....
.... all in all, forget about AED and focus on NWE... this pumping little company is tied into the AED falling sp but should not be falling for the same reasons that AED is because of the different cost setups...
NWE is far more diversified and has other company making projects in the stream which are all offset by AED's royalty...
this makes NWE attractive investment around these prices...
in potential alone, NWE could be dollars in SP...
at worst SP will still be above what it currently is at now later in the year which is 16cents...
This is not intended to be a ramp, Im still looking to enter this stock and may look for an entry for North Sea..Im going nuts here with mad bargain oil stocks screaming for me to at least make a cheeky bid...
Arrrghhhh market risk...
market risk only plays a small part in the collapse of AED and NWE....
NWE's collapse from 20c is unjustified...
:cool:
.^sc

Scorp57 -"If AED can solve their problems and get on their way to 60,000 BOPD over the next 2-3 years (which is still very possible IMO) we will be looking at a SP probably 10 fold what it is now..."

I know I am off the subject, but as Shrewd stated, why take the gamble with AED, NWE just sit back and take the cash with Zero risk. It is probably to their advantage that the oil takes twice as long to recover, may give them $150 a barrell in a years time.:p

scorp57
03-02-2008, 10:36 PM
you make a valid point, but i like the big guns so to speak, and like to be involved with AED directly and the big money.

NWE is as you say possibly less risky, but i beleive more people look at and trade AED and that they are more prone to a reaction and up swing if there is one than NWE,

PLUS if AED gets taken over what would be the benefit for NWE? would they still receive their royalties? most probably... would they get the same bounce as AED? no...

however having said all that i am considering entering NWE :)

Crypto Crude
04-02-2008, 07:47 AM
arhhhh yes... 60k bopd... what would that put NWE on... PE of 1 or less than 2 off current SP (a small increase in oil prices perhaps)...
6*4m.... its rather simple huh....
scorp, AED do NOT have a stabilised flow rate of 10K bopd....production volumes have not been consistant, and did fall to 6kbopd ... first announcements had production then 3 fold... a few lower days production have lowered the field average to 10k....
Decreasing pressure which has resulted in lower flow rates have benefited NWE more than AED because the overall field sustainability improves when less force is thrown into the field to create maximum returns through controlling of the pressure system...
flow rates are at 25&#37; of what they were telling us in Pre production stage...
....
scorp,
You say the big money is with AED this year.....'big guns'....
hum, AED have one big gun...
And guess what, 3 big guns are over at NWE... go and check them out...one is two weeks away close to free carried...
I'll tell you what, one of those big guns protects NWE and its called AED...
10k bopd is still good news for norwest...Somehow I think people still manage to confuse the difference in real value between aed and nwe...
NWE did have large expenditure for the last quarter though which was abit of a blowout... big gun 1, (puffin) has no cost for nwe...
example, aed have 75million expected expenditure for the current quarter, this is not including other costs... nwe have 0 expenditure in the project for the current quarter... and its a small cap with 3 guns this year...
also ARC drill eah...what big guns are you talking about...
sell all your aed and come to nwe...
I vouch nuffin for market risk.. Im sitting and waiting looking to enter...
The markets have killed these spec stocks because in a fear of recession, then markets do not believe that high PE stocks will still be able to achieve the same level of growth.... ...
Value in NWE will see this stock rise well above 20cents in any market this year apart from a crashing market, and market didnot crash, all the falls apart from one were controlled...(bar that asx 7% fall day)...
any way,
catch you all up... and remember this... your company is paying for this shiit, and NWE is just collecting it... a MAJOR difference when you consider AEDs quarterly expenditure...
:cool:
.^sc

Serpie
04-02-2008, 08:04 AM
Shrewdy,

I'm still trying to get my head around where NWE spent it's exploration dollars last quarter. Any clues?

Crypto Crude
04-02-2008, 08:57 AM
serpie,
I described it as a blowout... yes....
im out of town until firday and cant open any files, anns or nothing in these internet cafe's. so Ive basically be rattling it off the top so far...
I will gather something on FRI and we will talk at NC on sat...
:cool:
.^sc

scorp57
04-02-2008, 08:12 PM
Shrewd- Each to their own.

you do not have a crystal ball that guarantees me that NWE SP will do better %wise than AED's and thats what i care about... NWE may be the best company in the whole universe, but i think AED's SP has the potential to bounce back much harder from these levels, than NWE's does, and thats the name of the game. making money...

Now i could definately be wrong... sure.

but so could you.

Crypto Crude
05-02-2008, 04:42 PM
hey scorp,
today, AED down 10%, NWE no change...
yes I cannot guarantee anything, and more so not when AED keeps falling...
I said AED a good buy at $2 and its now slighty below that...
so there yah go...
:cool:
.^sc

scorp57
05-02-2008, 08:46 PM
yeh i totally agree.
and i can see further downside yet untill something happens to rectify the situation. i see nwe as much less risk and a much more solid investment short term,

but i invest long term, and i beleive that one day AED potential will be realised once again.

and again, i may be wrong, but hey if i knew what was going to make me money for sure, then i would just go win the lotto.

you'll be happy to know that i have a buy order in for NWE ;)

peterb
07-02-2008, 07:30 PM
but i invest long term, and i beleive that one day AED potential will be realised once again.


Haha long term investor in spec stocks you'd better watch out!

peterb
07-02-2008, 07:35 PM
Sorry, don't mean to be critical. I haven't followed AED for a few weeks, and just looking at the chart now I was horrified- Brutal! Mind you, I've seen it before with spec oil stocks. It might be a good buy now. I hope no one is holding who bought at $11.68. Scorp57, your comment about oil in ground was valid to a point, but naive: Oil is only valuable if you can bring it up. Otherwise it's smelly goo Kilometres down.

scorp57
07-02-2008, 11:16 PM
i dont consider AED speccie. they are producing. good enough for me.

they are bringin up the oil, just not as quickly/ efficiently as the market would like.

i beleive they will rectify their problems, and be a great oil company.

could be wrong, could be right.

peterb
07-02-2008, 11:44 PM
they are bringing it up, but the rate that they are bringing it up brings recoverable estimates in to question and raises the specter of a downwards reassessment. They may well resolve many of their problems, but that wont change a reserves downgrade if it happens.

scorp57
07-02-2008, 11:53 PM
yeh, i dont disagree with that, but cash flow is steady as she goes so far, and can be increased. substantially might i add.

i still beleive.

peterb
08-02-2008, 07:23 AM
cash flow is ok, just remember that mining and oil companies are valued by the market on the basis of reserves (actual reserves, what is independently assessed at P50, or p90 even). This is how the market values the company, and rightly so.

soulman
08-02-2008, 04:55 PM
No money to pay contractor is the rumour......Execs not returning call for 2 days....Something smells here.

scorp57
08-02-2008, 07:27 PM
i must admit, that i am alarmed by the increase in volume today, and the large trading range.

however, i will wait untill i hear what the situation is and assess then. i'm not one to panic.

bermuda
08-02-2008, 08:58 PM
i must admit, that i am alarmed by the increase in volume today, and the large trading range.

however, i will wait untill i hear what the situation is and assess then. i'm not one to panic.

They have come out with a response to the ASX.

Quite a clever reply. All is not lost..this could be quite a steal.

tricha
08-02-2008, 09:08 PM
No money to pay contractor is the rumour......Execs not returning call for 2 days....Something smells here.

Real strange the ASX has not pulled them up for a speeding ticket.
Maybe its due to the typhoon that has ripped the market. Maybe they are asleep.

How NWE hung in there has go me beat as well.:confused:

As PeterB stated cash flow OK,

Well a late speeding ticket, Scorp57 should sleep well tonight :)

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/b4a71d1c44b738fea26069491129abbe/ASX-AED-292401.pdf