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I.T.Ancient
29-05-2006, 09:46 AM
Looking good for contrarians.

New manager doing what had to be done. Shareholders who were in denial taking fright, thinking the messenger might be to blame, and fleeing.

Capital raising at attractive terms for shareholders.

Very ugly chart. Very reminiscent of the CNZ installment receipt position back in 2000.

I've been buying. Actually, I'm increasingly cashed up and this is the only thing I can find to buy!

Snow Leopard
29-05-2006, 01:43 PM
So 7.75% on the CPU's till May 09 and conversion to ordinaries at less than 60c a pop.

Claim that they expect to pay out 5.5-6.5c (8.0-9.5% gross)pa per unit in the meantime and possible repayment of $25m of capital notes.

Assuming no particular change in the net asset position over the next three years I think that equates to about 80c a unit once all the dust has settled. That would be about 23% ahead of your cost if you bought units at 68c and then taking up your full CPU entitlement.

Summary: Nice income stream at 8.0%pa gross and reasonable chance of about 8%pa average capital appreciation till mid 09.

Have I got that about right?

I.T.Ancient
29-05-2006, 03:27 PM
I made it conservatively 14% pa compounded over the three years. Close to your 8+8.

Doesn't sound very thrilling as we come to the end of a bull market, but IMO come May 2009 looking backwards 14% pa will look very good.

Snow Leopard
29-05-2006, 03:59 PM
quote:
NAP
29/05/2006
ENTITLE

REL: 1635 HRS The National Property Trust

ENTITLE: NAP: notification of record date for CPU entitlement

NPT announces notice of record date for CPU entitlement as Wednesday 14 June
2006. Entitlement letters will be mailed Monday 19 June 2006.
End CA:00131944 For:NAP Type:ENTITLE Time:2006-05-29:16:35:28


SO, no need to rush then. :)

lambton
29-05-2006, 04:47 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger


quote:
NAP
29/05/2006
ENTITLE

REL: 1635 HRS The National Property Trust

ENTITLE: NAP: notification of record date for CPU entitlement

NPT announces notice of record date for CPU entitlement as Wednesday 14 June
2006. Entitlement letters will be mailed Monday 19 June 2006.
End CA:00131944 For:NAP Type:ENTITLE Time:2006-05-29:16:35:28


SO, no need to rush then. :)


Not too bad a return. But can you trust these turkeys?

Snow Leopard
29-05-2006, 05:26 PM
I am kind of assuming that St Laurence has replaced the turkeys.
They are under-righting the CPU issue for a reasonable fee, and the CPU deal looks a pretty good deal to me.

Snow Leopard
09-06-2006, 07:32 PM
I have a bought a few NAP units over the last week or so but unless the price drops will not be acquiring any more.
Record date for CPU entitlement is next Wednesday 14th June, and according to the NZX diary CPU rights start trading the following day.

I see the CPU as a good buy at a dollar a pop, so I will take up my full entitlement, offer to buy some extra and maybe pick up some rights if the price is right.

Theory is that this is intended as a long termer with the CPU's converting in 2009. I see this as a reasonable buy under the present circumstances and diversifies the long term portfolio to 7 different companies.

Snow Leopard
14-06-2006, 07:30 AM
It is always nice when the Market endorses your decision and lifts the SP 7% above your average buy price in a few days.

Just hope the next few years follow the plan.

I.T.Ancient
14-06-2006, 08:15 AM
I'm going for the +35% too. It will be interesting to see if there is any significant volume of rights on offer.

Lizard
14-06-2006, 08:29 AM
Thanks for the thread ITA (also PT for the additional analysis). I didn't get my whole order filled at 67cps, but what I did get is doing nicely. Thanks. :)

Snow Leopard
20-07-2006, 07:31 PM
Well, now the dust as settled, I think.

NAP, the actual units themselves, are trading at $0.72 with dividends due to resume, which is a reasonable premium to those who admitted buying on his thread.
Meanwhile the Convertible Preference Units (code NAPGA) are trading at a 10% premium to the issue price.

I am mildly surprised that so few subscribed for the 35% over-allotment on the CPU's, they were a bargain. But at the same time I am glad to know that I have (I assume) my full allotment.

At the end of the day, short term this has worked out well and longer term, wait and see ;).

I.T.Ancient
20-07-2006, 08:53 PM
Yes I guess I too have the extra 35%. Also sitting on some APTGB which have proven most pleasing. So I'm in NAP & NAPGA for the longer term too.

COLIN
20-07-2006, 09:36 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Well, now the dust as settled, I think.

NAP, the actual units themselves, are trading at $0.72 with dividends due to resume, which is a reasonable premium to those who admitted buying on his thread.
Meanwhile the Convertible Preference Units (code NAPGA) are trading at a 10% premium to the issue price.

I am mildly surprised that so few subscribed for the 35% over-allotment on the CPU's, they were a bargain. But at the same time I am glad to know that I have (I assume) my full allotment.

At the end of the day, short term this has worked out well and longer term, wait and see ;).

A tidy profit for the underwriters/sub-underwriters. A pity the managers didn't give us unitholders the opportunity to subscribe for more than 35% over our entitlement.
With the prospect of resumption of distributions the head units now seem to be slowly recovering, and I would expect them to wend their way back to their previous range, i.e. before the new guard took the hatchet to the operation, including carrying more robust valuations.

Snow Leopard
28-07-2006, 09:01 AM
National Property picked to frustrate (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=3&ObjectID=10393360) is not the most positive article about NAP.
Meanwhile the full year (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?E=NZSE&S=NAP&N=134577) is out. Despite the headline being a significant loss the operating surplus is up, we have a 1.2c (gross) dividend and the expectation of 5.5c - 6.5c gross dividend (per annum) through to 2009 as stated previously.

Steve
28-01-2007, 09:19 AM
Anyone still following NAP? It appears that the 'master' plan is working...

Trust's change of direction pays off (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10421156)
Listed industrial, retail and commercial landlord National Property Trust has pushed up its after-tax profit, and its new managers are taking credit.

Kevin Podmore, the trust's executive chairman and a director of Wellington-based financier St Laurence, which owns the trust's manager, said the result reflected a new direction.

"The manager's strategy is to focus on managing properties for yield and low-risk growth opportunities and to target capital expenditure projects that add value," Podmore said. "This is now beginning to yield results."

Major von Tempsky
29-01-2007, 07:04 AM
Hmmmm, maybe its just a matter of time b4 the ppty coy takeover craze notices even NAP.
Cynically, one can't help thinking that the situation was never as "bad" as St Laurence portrayed, that they decided to give the company a bath, take all the accounting charges/devaluations at once that they could think of and it was all carefully calculated and timed so that St Laurence could maximise its stake in the company.
NAP ordinary shareholder suckers: You've been had.

Snow Leopard
30-01-2007, 10:46 PM
Have a good quantity of NAP and NAPGA, seem to have made a reasonable return on them over the last six months.

I.T.Ancient
31-01-2007, 08:50 AM
Well Major the market - justifyably IMO - prefers to see all bad news in one hit rather than drip fed over a period. St Lawrence did the right thing. Yes they did benefit, but they can hardly be blamed for market over-reaction. The bottom line is that NAP was a sick puppy and St Lawrence have applied the necessary medicine.

zyreon
31-01-2007, 02:16 PM
this was the first stock i bought, back just before they tookover some other south island property trust. Thought about buying back in when it bottomed out... but didnt :(

Snow Leopard
25-06-2007, 10:41 PM
quote:from todays announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NAP&E=NZSE&N=149606)
...On a portfolio valuation of $298.7 million, NPT's unaudited net asset backing (on a diluted basis) has increased around 14 cents to 95 cents per unit.

...and an NTA of $1.57 behind each NAPGA.

lakeside
26-06-2007, 07:03 AM
St Laurence and SLPF have about 20% of NAP as of May at $.84 and ING increased to 7% in April so proffesionals in property funds see good longterm value.

Increased interest rates don't help and exposed to retail property but should be well managed, I see they are not looking to extend themselves by more buying at the moment.

lakeside
26-06-2007, 02:05 PM
ING get another 1% as we chat...

They aren't buying NAPGA though But St L are.

Wish I had at $1.10 a we bit back.

But even the ords at 80c are a good discount to NTA. Similar to SLPF $1.20 (and sometimes lower) for $1.49 NTA.

Then maybe buy DPC who have 25% of St L and so lots of NPT and are seriously discounted. Just unpopular with brokers I think & rumors Kevin Podmore is retiring, but I don't think so just new challenges.

I saw the name of John Mallon? (I think I'm right) in one of the property trusts - might have been ING or KPT. If he's the same guy who set SLPF up with some great buys a couple of years ago he's an asset to whoever uses his expertise now.

But all the property trust seem to be perking up now.

I.T.Ancient
26-06-2007, 02:42 PM
The only other share I own with this kind of discount to NTA is WID. Much as I am optimistic about WID, the discount can be justified.

The stubborn maintenance of this discount for NAP/NAPGA is presumably a symptom of the bull market, with punters (other than ING) favouring other opportunities. I sure won't be selling.

Snow Leopard
24-07-2007, 10:36 PM
<pre id="code">
Gross
Code Price NTA Dscnt Yield
NAP 0.73 0.95 23% 6.8% (5cps pa)
NAPGA 1.10 1.57 30% 6.8% (7.75cps pa)
</pre id="code">

Lizard
25-07-2007, 06:27 AM
Has the fall-off in price been caused by the Credit Suisse sell-down which appears to have been completed? I couldn't quite fathom what the equity swap arrangement with St Laurence was (too lazy to check back).

Anyway, would seem this price could be a temporary opportunity if that is the case.

croesus
08-08-2007, 11:50 AM
Was looking to buy some, but this steady decline has got me wondering, about debt levels and cash flow??.....anybody know the tea lady. ?

croesus
08-08-2007, 04:32 PM
Have done some research this aft, and decided nothing wrong with NAP, good management, good cashflow, range of well tenanted properties.

My conclusion is that higher interest rates, property not being the flavour of the month, Bridgecorp debacle etc have all conspired to pull the S/P back.

The $64 question is how much more S/P erosion ?....
Will shortly put some more in the bottom draw, to add to those I have had since the last major dip.
Cheers Croesus

Phaedrus
08-08-2007, 06:56 PM
...... how much more S/P erosion?.......
How about exactly 2 cents?! Take a look at this long-term chart. About the only good thing on it is the (so far) unwavering support at 65 cents.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NAP88.gif

I can't help but admire the patience, tenacity and boundless optimism of long-term holders of this stock. I don't know how you do it! There aren't many stocks on the NZX that are lower than they were over 10 years ago. As a long-term "Buy and Hold" NAP has been a disaster. It's not a good trading stock either.

If you are, nevertheless, intent on "topping up" your holdings of this stock, take a look at this shorter-term chart - it has a few interesting features. First, note the rising OB. In view of the steadily falling shareprice, this is astonishing. This stock is being accumulated! It's costing the poor sods doing this an arm and a leg, but they are doing it! You are not alone!
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NAP88b.gif
The chart also shows three indicators which have worked well with NAP over the last year or so. All 3 fired off Buy signals (green arrows) almost simultaneously, but notice how their Sell signals (red arrows) were spread over a couple of months. In spite of this, they all signalled an exit at the same price (83 cents).
None of these indicators are near signalling a Buy for NAP, as yet. A Buy signal from any of these indicators would provide some objective evidence that the downtrend had weakened or ended.

I.T.Ancient
21-09-2007, 03:09 PM
Drat.

Following the announcement, I saw NAPGA sellers sitting at .98 & .99. Oh good I thought.

Then I received an important phone call.

By the time I looked again someone had snaffled them all and the next seller is at 1.12.

Phaedrus
21-09-2007, 03:53 PM
Support, when broken, often becomes Resistance.
Here is a nice clear example of that.
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/NAP921.gif

Snow Leopard
07-02-2008, 11:21 PM
Apparently 2.3.f. Net Tangible Assets per security - 98.2 cpu ( 2006 79.7 cpu) (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NAP&E=NZSE&N=159802) the best thing that could happen to this stock is for the trust to sell up and distribute the proceeds. However I am sure St Laurence do not see it that way.
At $0.55 and, it seems, 4.8cps pa divvies then it is regarded as no more than a yield play in the current environment.

JMKC
08-02-2008, 08:39 AM
I hear you, although isn't there some issue with where the stock sits now that St Laurence sold that stock back into the trust.

Also, in terms of property trusts and their NTAs, APT's NTA is something like $1.41, so considerably above the current sp. Unfortunately, high NTAs only benefit the holders of the mgmt contract, not unitholders.

Billy Boy
08-02-2008, 08:46 AM
Most of the Unit trusts seam to be trade below their NTA
ING has been doing a big buy back over the last few months.
Trading 102, NTA 132
I wonder what the SP would have been had it not been for this
Buy Back.
May NAP Could be lining up for the big merger some where.
BB

sharer
11-08-2009, 01:52 PM
Very small but steady NAP trade every day 35 & sub 40c for ages, made me imagine somebody with a longterm plan to accumulate at giveaway prices. Not long ago somebody had to exercise quite a few options & did so at mid 80s while market 38-40. Why would he do that when he could get the same number of units on market at less than half the money? - unless there is some kind of urgency, perhaps? As a try on, i tried posting a Sell order in mid 80s, but a few days later NZX rules caused my order to be cancelled as "Too far away from market price". Hmmm.
Subsequently market has been reluctantly but steadily rising, in last few days squeezing up to 44c today, still on small trades. Ratio b:s = 2.58 now.
Despite the general gloom they have kept some dividend flowing.
As i posted some time ago, still wondering about some insider activity does seem reasonable.

Snow Leopard
11-08-2009, 10:27 PM
...Not long ago somebody had to exercise quite a few options & did so at mid 80s while market 38-40. Why would he do that when he could get the same number of units on market at less than half the money?...

I guess that you are referring to this announcement (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NAP&E=NZSE&N=181674) where the manager got paid for doing such a good job :rolleyes: of making money for the trust by being issued new units at close to NTA as per the management agreement.

I have made about 30% (paper) capital gain on this since April which is pleasing, and I made a profit on them back in the old days before the GFC (when I was young :D).
But the worry with NAP is that it can take time to sell a reasonable size holding.

regards
Paper Tiger

have a NAP :p

Snow Leopard
31-07-2010, 11:28 AM
Has the NZHerald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10662503) reports we unit holders have voted (http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=NAP&E=NZSE&N=197860) to go down the road of becoming a property company in the hope that this will be better for us.

So far I have done really quite well from the rising price over the last year and happily look forward from moving from "really quite well" to "really well" in the capital gain stakes [Not that I bought them for the capital gain of course] whilst enjoying that 4.5cps income.

So, I believe the SP still has a few cents of headroom left in it.

regards
Paper Tiger

PS I have bought a few NZ property bits recently: GMT, ING, KIP & NAP

GR8DAY
31-07-2010, 02:21 PM
.....i notice the NTA is still being incorrectly reported (on National Bank site and Direct I think) as 99.85c when in fact it's a fraction over 70c.......big discrepency, i wonder how they can get it so wrong??

Lizard
25-11-2010, 08:15 AM
Good to see Torrens House leasing agreement with Natcoll. This property was a bit of a drag on performance, although would have been some optimism post-earthquake that we would see it leased. Last traded 53cps, but would think this news might add a couple of cents?

JayPe
26-11-2010, 12:31 PM
Latest news:
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/NAP/announcements/4389279/NPT-UNIT-HOLDERS-APPROVE-CORPORATISATION-PROPOSAL
http://www.nzx.com/news/4390919/New-NPT-board-not-a-silver-bullet

Corporatisation has cleared the final hurdle, with 99% voting in favour (just over the 75% requirement). The new board includes Sir John Anderson (Chairman) and H&G's David Cushing (shareholders have a lot to thank the Cushings for, after they pushed for change for some time). Sir John has warned that this change won't alter the fact that getting decent returns out of NPT will be a challenge.

We'll see how the new set-up works, but the future is brighter than it was 12 months ago and for that we can be thankful.